Ciena Corporation (CIEN). The Group's principal activity is to provide network solutions to telecommunications service providers and enterprise worldwide.
CIEN is a falling angel from the 2000 bubble. It has fallen from a high of $151 to a low of $1.64 made about a month ago:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19;image)
Since that low the stock is starting to come back from the dead and on Friday it rose 9% on heavy volume. Every short term speculator must jump on the bandwagon when he sees a chart like this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=20;image)
It is one powerfull breakout of that descending trendline. The lows around $1.7 held and finally CIEN has a technical pattern that clearly favors the bulls. I will buy CIEN at tomorrow's open without hesitation.
Trading Plan:
1) Buy CIEN at the open
2) Sell when we get 2 consecutive closes below the 50 day moving average, which is the red line on the chart.
David Randolph
www.3stocksonfire.org (http://www.3stocksonfire.org)
looks like a nice buy ! good luck for you and me ;D
btw, nice lovely site
I have made and lost a great deal of money on Ciena.
I am now looking at OMNI, an oil service (seismic and aircraft) company that appears to be positioned to move well over the next 3 to 6 months, depending upon the intensity of the hurricanes in the gulf.
Quote from: nofear on May 01, 2005, 11:03:25 PM
looks like a nice buy ! good luck for you and me ;D
btw, nice lovely site
Hi Nofear, let's see how it closes... ;)
Quote from: rcredle on May 02, 2005, 01:34:36 PM
I have made and lost a great deal of money on Ciena.
I am now looking at OMNI, an oil service (seismic and aircraft) company that appears to be positioned to move well over the next 3 to 6 months, depending upon the intensity of the hurricanes in the gulf.
Hi rcredle,
OMNI has an attractive chart...
I'm looking for a resistance level near $1.90.. but if it breaks up, then I think it will move very fast.
Best regards
I want to be the man with the last word on every thread started by me on this board, so I'm going back and answering all unanswered posts.
I see now that CIEN didn't make much headway after my purchase and sell of the stock. rcredle's OMNI couldn't go beyond the $3 resistance level and the stock is down sharply from there.
will it continue?
CIEN broke out of a range yesterday, with volume above average of 21 million plus shares traded. The technical target of this breakout is $2.90-$2.17 = $0.73+$2.90 = $3.63. The stock closed yesterday at $2.99:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=10627;image)
Taking a look at a medium term chart we can see we're buying high, but not as high as many folks did in the past :) ... and now the trend is a friend of the bulls, not the bears:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=10626;image)
The stock was down a bit after hours, I hope it stays that way so I can buy below $2.99. Attention, I won't buy IF the open is above $2.99, if there is a gap up on CIEN, I'll pass this trade.
So, the plan is to buy at the open, IF the open is =< $2.99, otherwise don't buy and wait for tomorrow's opportunity.
Very surprised to see you bought CIEN since it opened above $ 2,99 ??? ??? Being $ 3,-
Amarens
Quote from: Amarens on December 01, 2005, 10:30:24 AM
Very surprised to see you bought CIEN since it opened above $ 2,99 ??? ??? Being $ 3,-
Amarens
I forgot a detail ... I sent the newsletter and forgot to say at it that I wouldn't buy if the stock were to open above $2.99. I went out for lunch and called Ramsburg for him to execute the orders. So he bought the stock, like anybody who wouldn't read the entire text would :( or maybe :), we'll see.
I'll go for the :). Was just surprised because you always do what you say, which makes this all so easy to follow I think. I already owned them, so I'm happy with your pick because it gives me extra support ;D
Keep up the great work!
Amarens
Thanks Amarens, it was really surprising to see the stock rebound at this moment, the intraday action really can fool you :)
Even now I was day trading the DAX futures (I do it just for sport, I need it like I need to breathe) and the DAX looked very weak relative to the US, but it was a foolish play, shorts got tired and bulls took over as I write.
Well, go CIEN, go :)
Ok... i'm IN @ 3.00 sold NVAX for some profit ;D Yahooooo...........
BTW..just received my 3SOF T-shirt :D
Quote from: David Randolph on December 01, 2005, 10:38:03 AM
I went out for lunch and called Ramsburg for him to execute the orders. So he bought the stock, like anybody who wouldn't read the entire text would :( or maybe :), we'll see.
Sorry...
I have to apologise everybody about this mistake, specially David who trusted me to execute the plan for today... :-(
I was very short on time while executing the orders, and I had read the CIEN analysis quite fast (too fast in deed)... It wont happen again ! ;)
Quote from: Ramsburg on December 01, 2005, 10:34:33 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on December 01, 2005, 10:38:03 AM
I went out for lunch and called Ramsburg for him to execute the orders. So he bought the stock, like anybody who wouldn't read the entire text would :( or maybe :), we'll see.
Sorry...
I have to apologise everybody about this mistake, specially David who trusted me to execute the plan for today... :-(
I was very short on time while executing the orders, and I had read the CIEN analysis quite fast (too fast in deed)... It wont happen again ! ;)
Just 1 tick from from the previous close its not a big deal... no need to apologize ;)
No problem Fred, it was my fault, I forgot to write the specifics on the newsletter. There was some pullback, possibly due to the gap up, but the stock held and came back.
The candlestick left on the chart was a doji, which reveals indecision from traders. But, there's no doubt there was a bullish breakout in CIEN, possibly today traders will have less doubts about this and push CIEN higher.
I think CIEN presents a simple trading plan. The technical target of the breakout is $3.63, so I would take profits there. And the ascending trendline stands at $2.78, I would get out if the stock were to close below this level (which rises about $0.0235 everyday).
This plan has a 21.4% profit potential and a 7% risk. I'll take it.
Perhaps I'll take a slap in my face for what I'm about to do, but I won't stick with my plan on CIEN, I'll sell it at today's open. Why? Three reasons:
1) This stock wasn't to be bought in the first place, I made a mistake when I passed the instructions to you and Ramsburg, as you can read on the rest of this thread.
2) The stock made two dojis in a row, which means traders are undecided about the breakout and the uptrend.
3) The 3 SOF Fast December Edition started with a bad mood, I'm already losing 2.94%. I need to clear my head and the portfolio for 1 day and start over tomorrow.
Hi David,
MISTAKE to sell CIEN!
It is going much-much higher!
Stay long & strong thru first few months of next year!
all JMHO, of course... buy VTSS as well ... buy TLAB as well ...
willey
CIEN is clearly in uptrend but for me to take a position, I will wait for pull back at 10-EMA:
$2.85 for today.
This is looking nice. Took a bounce off the 50-dma,
and also of a 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Support @ $2.90...2.82...2.76
Resistance @ $3.20
Volume: 15,906,586
Avg Volume (3m): 11,309,700
Technicals
MACD is Bullish
Stochastic is Bullish
Close Above the 13-day EMA
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
6.58%above 13-day EMA
12.72%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 96
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,787.45
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: -7
Next Earnings: 02/15/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
this one is strong buy eom...look at chart = turnaround
Did this one have a reverse split today ???
The "CIEN" Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.
I will leave you Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread.......
Good trading to all !
Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis
Updated View.......
Eastern Time, on September 22, 2006, Ciena Corporation effected a one-for-seven reverse stock split of its common stock.
52wk Range: 22.04 - 48.39
Volume: 2,334,963
Avg Vol (3m): 3,236,540
Technicals
Close Below the 13-day MA
Last Price Quote is:
-1.91%below 13-day MA
7.04%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 89
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $3,742.88
P/E Ratio: 62.84
PEG Ratio: 2.13736
Next Earnings: 12/06/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Neutral
Friday's closing chart.......