looking interesting
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=nvlt&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
-Rodman and Renshaw values the company at 200M. Its current market cap is 20M.
Novelos (NVLT.ob) is dramtically undervalued relative to other early stage biotechs. As an example, CYTR (Nasdaq) has a Pipeline of: 2 phase II's, 1 phase I and numerous preclinicals, and has a market cap of 325 M. As soon as the investment community acknowledges the potential for Novelos to develop a portfolio of active Glutathione derivatives against a broad spoectrum of diseases, the market cap should rise accordingly.
Projections: Rodman and Renshaw recently assigned a risk adjusted NPV for NOV-002 of 200M, which I beleive, at this time, is a low estimate. For example, they gave only a 40% probabilty of success as part of the NPV analysis of NOV-002 for NSCLC. This is despite the drug candidate already receiving positive Phase II results in the Russian study and now also in the US. As a point of reference here, as a drug moves through the pipeline and passes each hurdle, the risk decreases with each major milestone. Drugs entering Phase I clinical trials have a only a 15% probability of success. For phase II, the odds are around 30%, and for Phase III, 60%. Thus, if a probability of success of 60% was given, then the NPV becomes 300M, without any revenue from other cancer studies included at this time.
Not a bad day today. Showing an SAR parabolic bullish signal.
So why the 20M and change market cap? Good question. Just as an example, CYTR (Nasdaq) has a Pipeline of: 2 phase II's, 1 phase I and numerous preclinicals, and has a market cap of 325 M. NVLT is heavily discounted.
Good Luck
another great day today.
NVLT.ob
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=nvlt&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
chugging along nicely
another 10% today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=nvlt&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
and again
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=nvlt&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
another good day
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=nvlt&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
looks like we will be off to the races tommorrow
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32788104657
double bottom. let the games begin
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32788104657
another white candle
more tommorrow
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32788104657
up 11% today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32788104657
another 6% friday
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32788104657
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071217/20071217005512.html?.v=1
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32788104657
Even though this is only a 50c stock, technicals still apply. The double bottom low of 43c should provide enough of a support level here, combined with positive fund'l news, and this stock should be able to pivot right here from this higher low, and vault over the 50 dayMA finally. Perhaps this will force the shorties to cover their (probably unborrowed) shares (plus tax loss selling will abate soon), and we could see $1+ .
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol=nvlt&Refer=http://clearstation.etrade.com/
nice chart, awesome pipeline........... ;)
very bullish chart, plus summarization
Novelos Therapeutics' (NVLT.OB) CEO Is Eyeing "Revolutionary" Phase III Study Results
Wednesday, December 16, 2009 06:48ET
http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200908/556166_552373_logo.jpg
LOS ANGELES, CA -- (Marketwire) -- 12/16/09 -- BioMedReports.Com, the news portal which covers Wall Street's biomedical sector and delivers financial and investment intelligence to a community of highly informed investors, has published an exclusive interview with the CEO of Novelos Therapeutics, Inc. (OTCBB: NVLT), Harry S. Palmin.
It's become pretty obvious, even to the most casual biotech sector observer, that patients involved in Novelos' pivotal Phase III trial for lung cancer are living longer than expected.
"These patients with a median survival of eight to ten months unfortunately die pretty quickly," explains Palmin. "One year survival, which is another way to look at this, is just about 40%."
But Wall Street has begun to take more interest in the company and the study since over a year and a half after the enrollment target of patients was reached, the number of the expected deaths has not yet occurred.
In the interview, Palmin reveals:
"...Avastin is the only drug in non-small cell lung cancer, first line treatment, that showed a survival advantage. They showed a two month survival advantage, 12.3 months versus 10.3, but the drug has severe toxicities associated with it on top of the chemotherapy toxicities and it's very expensive. It's also only available to very few lung cancer patients because the histology it works for is non-squamous.
"The point that I'm trying to make is that given our current statistical projections, we should be on track to achieve or possibly even exceed our possible twelve and a half month median survival target.
"By way of background, we started the pivotal Phase III on lung cancer on the back of three Phase IIs," explains Palmin. "We saw dramatic survival advantages, better anti-tumor effects and in the United States, we saw doubling response rates and better toleration of chemotherapy."
The complete interview is available now at BioMedReports.Com:
http://biomedreports.com/component/content/article/56-top-leading-news/22199-novelos-eyeing-qrevolutionaryq-phase-iii-cancer-study-results.html
>:D >:D >:D >:D
Novelos' (NVLT.OB) Study Patients Continue to Live Longer as Pfizer Stops Lung Cancer Study
Thursday , December 31, 2009 09:55ET
http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200908/556166_552373_logo.jpg
LOS ANGELES, CA -- (Marketwire) -- 12/31/09 -- BioMedReports.Com, the news portal which covers Wall Street's biomedical sector and delivers financial and investment intelligence to a community of highly informed investors, is reporting Pfizer Inc. has announced that it has decided to discontinue the late-stage study of its lung cancer candidate figitumumab (CP-751,871) while Novelos' (OTCBB: NVLT) pivotal Phase 3 trial, with a primary efficacy endpoint of improvement in median overall survival, continues across approximately 12 countries and 100 clinical sites.
Yesterday, it was reported that an independent data monitoring committee found by analyzing data from Pfizer's late-stage study that the addition of figitumumab to a combination of older medications -- paclitaxel and carboplatin -- was unlikely to meet the primary endpoint of improving overall survival compared to the combination of paclitaxel and carboplatin alone.
Meanwhile, Novelos' randomized, open-label, international, pivotal Phase 3 trial continues evaluating NOV-002 in combination with paclitaxel and carboplatin versus paclitaxel and carboplatin alone, in approximately 900 patients with Stage IIIb/IV lung cancer.
Other drugs like motesanib, by Takeda Pharmaceutical and Amgen and Nexavar, from Bayer and Onyx Pharmaceuticals, have shown negative effects in that cell type, leaving the market wide open for Novelos' NOV-002.
"We actually potentiate the chemotherapy," said Palmin in a recent interview with BioMedReports. "We make the cancer cells more sensitive to chemotherapy and we also inhibit the cancer's ability to metastasize (spread), so there are all sorts of interesting effects that happen at the tumor level. However, on the normal cells -- for example bone marrow cells and blood cells -- which of course get damaged by chemotherapy -- we don't stop the damage but we do help the recovery from that damage. In the words of big pharma, 'if this Phase III trial is positive, this will be revolutionary for the cancer field.'"
The complete report is available now at BioMedReports.Com: http://biomedreports.com/articles/most-popular/23144-pfizer-stops-lung-cancer-study-while-novelos-patients-continue-to-live-longer.html
another stellar day, I have locked som profits, still holding core postition >:D >:D
fyi:
Charles B. writes, "I believe Novelos Therapeutics(NVLT.OB Quote) will shape up to be a Dendreon -like (DNDN Quote) story in the first quarter. It's interesting that their lead compound [NOV-002] is such a simple molecule -- oxidized glutathione, a readily available compound, which is not tumor specific. Good, bad, or ugly, this promises to be a wild ride. You have Russians involved, an overzealous, inexperienced CEO promoter, a common laboratory chemical, a Massachusetts General Hospital-directed phase III study in non-small cell lung cancer, and a frenzied, pimpled fan boy. Get the word processor ready. This promises to be entertaining, and perhaps (just perhaps) the biggest biotech story of the year."
Charles is right, but I have only one question: Will Novelos be the good Dendreon of April 2009 or the bad Dendreon of May 2007?
Novelos shares have tripled in the past month (the stock closed Thursday at $2.24) because the phase III study of NOV-002 in lung cancer patients appears late to finish. Study results, initially expected last fall, are now to be released in the current quarter. The company said Thursday that the NOV-002 study just reached the 725 death events needed to conduct the final analysis.
Novelos CEO Harry Palmin hasn't been shy about attributing what he says is a longer-than-expected trial duration to a possible survival benefit from NOV-002.
The NOV-002 study is blinded to Palmin and the company, so he only knows that ALL patients in the study seem to be living longer than expected. But he assumes that patients in the study's control arm treated for chemo alone will report a median survival in the range of 10 months - that's in line with previously reported phase III studies in non-small cell lung cancer.
If that turns out to be true, patients treated with NOV-002 plus chemo could report median survival exceeding 12 months -- enough for the study to be a huge success, said Palmin in a December interview with a Web site devoted to penny-stock promotion.
I don't want to sound unduly critical, but Palmin's comments make me cringe. Not because I'm 100% confident he's dead wrong, but because even if he's right, he shouldn't be out there making such bold predictions so close to the study's completion.
still holding ;)