As said I bought one of our users picks posted in the Stock Picking Board. The picker was fred (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=983.0), the man is talking about this stock since $3 !!! ::)
Well, today it caught my eye ... I will update this recommendation after the close.
fred has made an extensive research on CLWT, I'll just put the link to his post: CLWT: A fundamental opportunity on the short and long term? (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=606.msg2576#msg2576)
The sector is very appealing and I've read some news at the company's website and it is growing, opening new offices across China. As we can see in the chart when we get these surges in volume the following days we have an equal enormous spike in price. I hope history repeats itself, and since fundamentals are improving and the sector is hot, why not see this stock above $10 in the next few days?
Quote from: David Randolph on June 27, 2005, 03:39:14 PM
As said I bought one of our users picks posted in the Stock Picking Board. The picker was fred (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=983.0), the man is talking about this stock since $3 !!! ::)
Well, today it caught my eye ... I will update this recommendation after the close.
Thx david,
Even being a non-pro-trader, i was kind of surprised nobody seemed to like CLWT.
In my humble opion this stock should somewhat higher. The only reason ,i think, why CLWT is still that low is not because of CLWT itselfs, nope.... it's all about the CHINESE. You can call them great communicators since they raise there voice only once a year: when it's earning time.
That means that every time something 'good' happens (good earnings, tsunami) the stock flies really high to come back at a basic level in a short time because of radiosilence.
So i'm not sure if it's a good longplay but at the short timing with earning ahead we have probably a nice run ahead of us.
The question is how high can it go? 9? 12? or even higher?
fred, do you know the date of the earnings release? It would be nice to know ... if you have the time please do some DD on this (maybe send an e-mail to the company). Thanks a lot !
Sorry man, not an idea. As i said they don't talk too much.
What i can say is that previous years it always was end of June, beginning of July. So it could be imminent.
Just mailed them(CLWT) THE QUESTION.
I will let you know if they answer.Doubt it
Keep up the great work, David.
;)
Thanks mate, good luck :D
CLWT has a liquidity problem (in terms of number of shares traded) and price fluctuates a lot, so risk and potential is high on this trade.
Fred says results will probably come out in the next few days and from what I've seen from the company they will probably be good, so I'll hold the stock until the news is out. Give it a couple of weeks to surge for me to sell into that surge ... I ain't no long term investor although I appreciate the fundamental background of this stock.
Historical earnings release dates:
FY 2001 - 6/28/02 (Thursday)
FY 2002 - 6/27/03 (Thursday)
FY 2003 - 6/29/04 (Monday)
FY 2004 - ???????? If i was a betting man i would say 6/30/05 (they seem to like Thursday release dates)
Earnings release is some time TODAY. Either this afternoon or after the bell. All the best
Irish
David, any ideas what your target will be?
I've got dialup, yesterday I put in a buy for 4.22. Somehow my ScottradeElite charts weren't updating correctly. My buy went in for 4.59. Now I'm just hoping to get myinvestment back.
Trusting the site more and more.
Hi Irishman, did u see something about earning release today?
Thanks!
Eager-
Yes , it's definitely today, but the Chinese are VERY unpredictable. It's interesting to note however, that one of the directors filed to sell 37,000 shares tomorrow. After earnings Could be he is going to take advantage of what he already knows or it could be just a coicidence. Who knows? But it is interesting. All the best.
Irish
I don't usually hold into earnings, but taking a chance on this one. Entered right before the bell at 4.25. Hope this bet pays off.
Humm, I searched through the company's website but found nothing about results. Yet, I see the stock being traded on the after hours and it is up about 3%.
Depending on the effect of the earnings release on the open I will sell or not. Since liquidity is very low on this stock I'm thinking about selling it (although fundamentals are sound like fred wrote), just not my kind of play.
Before the open I'll report something, but I think the open should be above $4.90 if we have a positive surprise on earnings from CLWT.
EURO TECH HLDG CO (NasdaqSC:CLWT) Delayed quote data
showing 5.32 AH
The AH $5.32 is a BAD TIC . The real AH close was $4.32 Earnings release should be tomorrow. Bear in mind China is on a way different Time Zone than us, so by the time you get to your computers tomorrow AM the number could already be released.
Irish
Irish,
Where will the annual report show up first? their web page, the NASDAQ real-time filing page, or somewhere else???
thanks in advance.
From what I can determine, there has been heavy flooding and loss of life in the Province in China where CLWT has their home office, so they may be given a few days. But bear in mind these pure Chinese companies are not real big on PR so trying to get info out of them is like pulling teeth and my guess is that the release will not be in the form of PR but in the form of one of the SEC mandated documents. The 8 series I believe. Patience is the watchword for now.
Irish
Irishman is taking care of the results for us ;), thanks. Well, they're not out yet, but the stock rose one more day. It is rising everyday, altough slightly. So I might as well keep it.
Does this means earnings are not for now?
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1026662/000110465905030925/0001104659-05-030925-index.htm
Anybody who knows exactly what this means?
Fred et al,
Yes they did file for an extension which is up to 15 days. However, within the filing they gave the numbers that they expect to report.
REV- '03= 27.4 M Rev-'04= 32.2 M
NET INCOME- '03= 531k '04= 594k
So, REV is up 17.64% Income is up 11.86%
EPS is .09 adjusted for the '03 2 for 1 split.
I don't know, sounds pretty solid but not all that exciting to me. Opinions?
I agree it doesn't sound too exciting, but I guess I'll hold on and see what shakes next week. Could go either way I suppose. After the run up earlier this week one has to be a fraid that the earnings aren't already 'priced in'? I'm,only down a dime at this point but i think if it gets close to $4 I might be forced cut loss.
I have something unpopular to say, but I'm not sure if I should or keep my mouth shut?
Quote from: ehos on July 01, 2005, 10:08:55 PM
I have something unpopular to say, but I'm not sure if I should or keep my mouth shut?
The more info we get on a stock, the better we're able to judge it.
When I buy a stock it's because I'm positive on it.
If bad news come up, I'll be grateful to know about it.
So....yes, please.
Of course you should ehos. The market and an investor lives from positive and negative information that can impact stock prices. The trader with the more knowledge and information has a better chance of winning in the long run.
Considering CLWT, earnings guidance wasn't very exciting as you people have noted and the chart isn't promising, with a red marubozu.
I'll just have to take another small loss on this one ... it is very hard to stick with this strategy, but I know that it pays in the end. I could have sold CLWT with a small profit. Perhaps I forgot that one should take what the market has to give (even if it's not much) and don't have a «big trade mentality».
But the memories are coming back, there are so many lessons ... all of them are important. The man who takes more experiences, learns from them and always remembers them will be the best trader. Unfortunately I'm still learning :P
Ok, there has been alot of specualtion that this earnings would be 'huge' and hence (I believe) the nice run up (as shown in the chart).
I also believe, if earnings come out as proposed (ie flat) then alot of people will be dissapointed and we well see a selloff on the news. It's probably a good stay that the earnings were released as announced and that little 'heads up' is fair warning to possibly sell.
PLEASE Don't follow what I am saying. It's the reasoning I took when I sold my position.
You may be right BUT, notice that the prior earnings( last year for example) were in the same range or less and it came the last 2 years with a sharp rise of stockprice.
Any comments?
I had to go to the bank, so I left a sell order for the open. I was a bit undecided about selling, but I read my analysis a few times and concluded I had to follow the analysis. The stock isn't of my kind either, liquidity was too low.
Sold CLWT @$4.01 with a 3.37% loss, good luck for all the people still holding the stock :)
And when was their official earnings supposed to be released? Was delayed right?
Yes, it was delayed, they said in a report to the SEC they would present earnings in the following 15 days, so you can expect those earnings before 15th of July.
They gave guidance which was in line with the past growth of the company. I will look for the link where I've read this and post for you, just a minute please.
Link:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1026662/000110465905030925/a05-11476_2nt20f.htm
I bought to hold till earnings are released and i will stick to that plan. Maybe the N 20F filling didn't tell it all and since this is a small float company you never know what market makers and daytraders do when the earnings are officially out.
And.... there is the dividend question.
In 2001 Three-for-ten stock split in the form of a dividend.
In 2003 Dividend of four shares per ten shares
In 2004 Dividend of five shares per ten.
In 2005 ???
So, i wait and hope something nice will follow.
wish me luck.
I'm with you, fred.
Holding till we get some news.
Money aren't wasted untill we sell with a loss, right? ;)
Cheers!
Thanks David. I guess at this point I'd best hold too. And hold. And hold. And..........wait for the next spike. I'm retired now and got nothing left but time.....to hold. And...... :-\
I was going to sell first thing this morning but got tied up with something else. I actually think we may have seen the bottom here and I think there is a good chance it will get back up to the mid 4's before earnings actually does come out. The stock split question is what should give it an earnings run I'm hopiong.
I know I will be 'smited' for what I said earlier (like I said, it would be unpopular). I had my reasoning to sell.
BUT, the good news for people holding on is, it's OVERSOLD. :) Like I was 100% sure earnings (or news of) would send it down, I'm also sure it will rebound and spike.
(But, sorry, it will probably go down a bit more before it recovers, don't panic!).
Nice reversal action on Friday. Hopefully the major selling is over and we see a renewed earnings run as the new and improved delayed earning report gets close to being released.
Earnings are out now
Any thoughts on the ER?? Nice AH action last night, but will it follow through when the market opens?? The yahoo board is pumping this thing to double digits, but that's Yahoo MB's for you. Any sensible and realistic predictions here? I'll be happy with $5 pr $6 right now and we'll see how it goes after that.
With the tiny float and good fundamentals, it could go much higher if momentum traders jump on. CTTY, VEXP, and ABLE were recent low-float runners that had absolutely horrible fundmentals in comparison.
i've traded CLWT quite a few times. I've never seen it continue a run. I sold at an average of $6.18. I think the lack of a dividend and the fact that the float is higher this year kept the spike down in comparison to previous years. You might get some kind of secondary bounce either tomorrow or in a few days, but i think todays high was it for a while.
I want to congratulate the people that held until the actual earnings release: a 46% jump at the open :o
Of course, this was a «buy the rumor, sell the news» kind of story. I was wrong in not holding the stock until the news release.
ncham,
I couldn't agree with you more. I looked at the chart Thursday night after the ER came out and noticed they fail to hold a gain in the past. Often the candle looks like the one from Friday, good pop at the open but don't be left holding it for too long.
I'm taking note for next quarter's report. The trend seemed to repeat again.
I was at work Friday, so i couldn't sell before it went down to 5 $. Still was surprised off the steady decline after the run up. CLWT stays very undervalued at 4,4 if you look at their fundamentals. Too much short term players and not enough long-term investors, probably because they don't communicate enough.
3puttssuck, don't wait for quarter results because they won't come.
I still keeping an eye on this one for a quick buck since it could go up again Monday or the day after
we'll see
fred is right, they only report yearly. Another way to play this stock is to buy around the 200-day MA and wait for a spike (or a tsunami). That is, if you don't mind holding for a while.
Now it's time to keep an eye on CLWT again!
Up in premarket...22.37%
I guess the trigger was this story:
http://english.people.com.cn/200511/25/eng20051125_223820.html
Also a thread on this one on the Stock Picking Board
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=983.0
Bought in friday.....what a mistake as should have waited one more day. :( Hoping for rebound on China news spill cleanup.
Any interest in this stock this week?
There are some recent updates to the thread on this pick
on the Stock Picking Board.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=606.15