I can't believe there hasn't been more discussion of this stock on the board..
Great growth. Only 15% market penetration I believe. PE is 25, too low for growth. CHL worth $75 by end of year I'd think. Bought @ 51.35.
Quote from: bjc on August 18, 2007, 08:14:56 PM
I can't believe there hasn't been more discussion of this stock on the board..
Great growth. Only 15% market penetration I believe. PE is 25, too low for growth. CHL worth $75 by end of year I'd think. Bought @ 51.35.
It seems that most people here aren't interested in the large caps or some reason, even David. It's a shame, especially since large caps have been outperforming for a while now. Should be a nice buy.
Yes, Sully. I see a ton of value in large cap tech right now.
HPQ and CSCO are two names that immediately come to mind. The valuation is simply too cheap, Wall St will figure it out soon enough.
I've pretty much given up on small caps, there just isn't enough info available. There's always someone jagging it around. SILC comes to mind. I want to ditch my shares, and I should just do it. But I want to wait for the inevitable spike to the mid 20s, possibly new highs. The valuation is cheap, but it's an Israeli small cap, so who am I to guess what kind of multiples Wall Street will afford it? I'd rather find excellent value in a well known name.
CHL is one of the favorite stocks recommended by Robert Hsu, who manages the China Profit Strategy, http://www.chinaprofitstrategy.com. Of all the 'newsletter'-type stock advisory services I have tried (Taipan, Agora Group, Stansberry, Oxford and many others), Hsu is the only one who has delivered consistent results. I wish I had trusted him more when I first subscribed last November but I had been burned so many times before, I decided to just observe ... big mistake .. most of his recs have doubled at least. Oh well, he says there is plenty more to come ...
I guess it is OK to share that info since I just gave a plug for his newsletter. :-)
I still like the small caps, especially David's picks, as that is where you find the next TASR, HANS, TSO, etc .. and you only need to find one of those to make a boatload of money. Sooner or later, David's going to find one like those ... so I think sticking with small cap for a % of a portfolio is not such a bad idea.
He might find it, but he'll probably sell it on some short term weakness shakeout situation, like seems to happen a lot to David and small caps in general. I'm simply better off in large caps, or at least mid cap. I'll set my market cap min from now on at $1 billion, maybe making an exception here and there.
Quote from: bjc on August 20, 2007, 09:59:16 AM
He might find it, but he'll probably sell it on some short term weakness shakeout situation, like seems to happen a lot to David and small caps in general.
He may do it that way, but I prefer to trade them in & out, following the technical signals. I found TGB on a scan a few weeks ago & saw that it was a former pick. To me it looks like it could be another little PCU in the making & if it got on D's list, it must have decent fundies. I am watching & trading it on pullbacks (like now). I just need someone to spot them early, I have my own trading style.
(When I first started trading, I found a little stock called TSO ... owned it at $2+, didn't know how to trade and thought I was doing well when I sold it at $4+.... <sigh> ... )
TGB and others -- if they have similar potential -- shall not escape :)
I guess I just can't resist this approach when I did the math on what the return would have been if one had purchased $10k worth of TASR shortly after it was issued. Ah ... glorious hindsight!
Just because a stock is higher than $50 a share doesn't mean it can't go up! >:D
CHL + 2.59 to 63.94. New all time high.
CHL continues to move higher with a vengeance. I'll revise my target upwards to $85-90, and once it gets there I may consider holding for a long term hold.
CHL isn't going to run out of new subscribers anytime soon, China is sorta a big country.
Buying China stocks on a big dip is like printing money.
Hello BJC and Tradestar,
Nice discussion here. I have been only trading about 3 years now, still not beating the indicies. I have been a fan of the small and micro caps, but am comming around to the world of large caps. I have read several of William Oniel's IBD pumping books and am watching that strategy (growth/momentum) Do you read the IBD at all? According to them i believe that a buy point for CHL was about $60-61 on the current rally, now 10% over that they would say sit it out... what are your thoughts, I see you like CHL and all of your reasoning is valid. I am still skeptical that the Bulls will control the fall season. There still seem to be a issues with the inflated housing market that will way on retail sales as people have less money to spend...
Buying that dip to the 50 sma has served you well :) as it would on many in the past 2 weeks. Have you looked at ACH, explosive recovery. I am still watching and learning to figure out when a rally is still strong or too late to enter until a dip, and then how large a dip to wait for? Do you have any rules of thumb that you use.
Have you followed WBD at all? I have had some nice trades on it this year. currently forming a handle on a short 5 week cup (the cup is also a W that has broken out to the handle...) But its volume is slightly lagging the former breakouts and the 50sma is catching up.
AAPL also seems like it may still be a buy as they keep rumoring new products and vol was quite good on last weeks rally.
Hmmm I guess that the next 2 weeks will put a flavor on the final quarter. See if the big spenders come back or go to cash... and then there is the fed meeting.
Are you still buying into this rally? I feel late at this point and perhaps should hold my cash until after the meeting and hope that if the rally does continue w/o me my open positions benefit.
thanx for listening, i look forward to reading your continued posts (for TradeStar take a look at NTRZ and Rammsberg's take on that micro)
Cheers
joe
PS you mentioned TSO now this appears to be a buy. Sitting on the 200ma's and news out that gas inventories are down, winter on its way, isnt late smmer often the dip for the energy giants? The PE here at 7 is also below intustry avg of 10 Value play or catching a knife?
PSS DK is the best in group for refineries at IBD, similar chart set up but sitting on the 50sma rather than the 200, better growth numbers this year... hmmmm
joet-
I think AAPL could be a good buy now, but its so hard for me considering I'm 23 and if I had just put all my cash in AAPL a few years ago when I bought my first iPod I'd be up hundreds upon hundreds of %. So I kinda hold a grudge, which is stupid.
I think GOOG could be ready for another run soon, but I'd like to get it on a major pullback if that happened.
The stocks Ive bought recently are AUY and TRN. AUY is going really well so far, and I'm up marginally on TRN. I'm still very bullish on both. SILC had a huge toady...I'm holding half from the days David recommended it. I'm going to sell into this rally, but I'll see where it takes me first. I want more AUY the value is incredible.
I've been fully invested pretty much since I bought CHL, other than when I did a little rearranging to pick up AUY and TRN. Sold LVS half at 100 on the way down from 110, and then the other half at 100 on the way back up.
I'm also slightly nervous about the markets. Never know whats going to happen. Im definitely a bit uneasy without any cash right now, its nice to have some around for the days like when I picked this up..
CHL looks like it's ready to explode. At 66.94, its within about a point and a half of its 52 week high.
I took half off the table a couple days ago at 65.34 for a 27% gain. I think there's more to give, though, and I'd be very interested in picking my shares back up in the low 60s / a shakeout to the 50s.
If CHL was traded in the 50s again, I think we'd see similar fast and furious buying action to what we saw in mid August.
Quote from: bjc on August 18, 2007, 08:14:56 PM
I can't believe there hasn't been more discussion of this stock on the board..
Great growth. Only 15% market penetration I believe. PE is 25, too low for growth. CHL worth $75 by end of year I'd think. Bought @ 51.35.
:) :) CHL is at $76, up about $4 on today's session. I'm up 50% in 1 month in this mega cap. I'm going to sell CHL and put the proceeds in VIP and BTM, Brazillian wireless and telecom.
Ahhhhhhhhhh! Too bad I sold my CHL at 76..I'd sure rather take 84 today.
I shifted into BTM and VIP, the telephone plays for Brazil and Russia. My timing is a bit off obviously, but hopefully BTM and VIP can start catching up. I'll eventually be getting around to starting topics for these two. I'm embarrassed to say, I don't have as much fundamental info as I'd like on BTM. But I think the PE level is very low if the limited fundamenal info I have is correct.
Anyway, look at CHL go. Talk about parabolic.
CHL, BTM, and VIP have all been performing beautifully.
Brazil continues to be one of the great growth stories in the world.
Putin professed interest in becoming the Prime Minister of Russia when he is finished as President, which pleased investors in Russia's markets due to the fact Putin has been so good for their economy.
Once the focus shifts from China to other emerging markets, if these multiples start expanding big time, we could easily be looking at $40-50 stocks. My entry points on VIP and BTM are VIP - 27.99 BTM - 27.51.
Charts..
CHL is a beast!
Oh well, I guess nobody ever went broke taking a profit, right?
And my next assassin, VIP, looks like it might have some CHL-esque tendencies. It looks like a rocket ship! Should this broad market rally continue, I believe VIP will see a significant rally. It trades at a PE of 30 and forward PE of 14. This is while CHL as inflated all the way to 41. Google finance gives a forward PE of 16 for CHL, I wouldn't have thought it was that low. Some analysts' estimates must have been raised significantly. It may still be a great buy...but I've moved on.
I traded BTM for VIV and TNE.
Hi Bjc,
I didn´t buy CHL at 54, I thought, it is top for some time... :'(
CHL is still with buy under100 reccomendation of Robert Hsu.
Are you in Vimpel now?
Yeah I bought VimpelCom for 28 after I sold CHL at 75 or 76 or something. I sold into a big gap up and it just never looked back. If I had held, I would've had a double in basically two months. Whatever, I will sell VIP in the 40s. It may not take that long, look at MTL, a steel producer I believe in Russia.
Thanks for answer.
And do you know this one?
NIHD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NIHD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p13598275413
Personally, if I'm going to invest in wireless, it's going to be in emerging markets.
I don't have any interest in owning any stock that operates only in the U.S. right now.
The only US stocks I have are MTW, FCX, and FLS (Flowserve). MTW making the cranes for China, FCX selling the Copper and Gold and Molybdenum in China, and FLS makes industrial valves. I would have a hard time explainging FLS's business, so I'll copy and paste from a seekingalpha.com article about ten stocks for the global expansion.
This article was written by Faisal Laljee
"Flowserve (FLS) – Flowserve manufactures engineered pumps, valves and mechanical seals for fluid control systems. It serves oil and gas, chemical, general industrial, power generation, and water treatment sector with operations in 70 countries in North America, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. In 2006, roughly 65% of Flowserve's business was generated outside the U.S., with a total of $3 billion in sales.
Flowserve is the second largest producer of pumps and the third largest producer of valves. The company also serves as an after-market services provider. While margins have been shrinking, the company's backlog is worth $1.9 billion – an increase of 18% over last year. Even then, the company hopes to improve margins through its after-market services, which have higher margins.
Geographically, Europe accounts for the largest chunk of Flowserve's revenue, while oil and gas were the top industrial application for Flowserve's products in 2006. Overall, earnings are up 80% over last year, and with the insatiable demand for natural resources, Flowserve's flow control pumps, valves and seals will continue to see increased demand from chemical, petroleum and water related interests. "
link:
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/42877-ten-stocks-for-the-global-economic-expansion
I think it might be time for round 2 on CHL.
They are starting selling RIMM's Blackberry this month and all the sudden the stock is looking pretty cheap.