Market Cap: 28.34M
Medium term chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1380;image)
Motive to buy: «I have a special feeling to recognize and trade speculative bubbles. I've seen several of them and they always work the same way.
After a bull market we're entering a speculative bubble in oil and oil stocks. Usually the bubble accounts for 50% of the move of the entire bull market in 10% of the time. So I can historically and generally expect the oil index ($OIX in www.stockcharts.com) to rise some 50% in the next 4 months or so (100% for the people who bought at the beginning of the bull market in oil stocks), with the price of the barrel of oil itself to reach something north of $80.
Like I said, I've seen many speculative bubbles come and go ... and I can tell you, in the final months of the bull market, in the bubble territory, every stock that is in some way or another related to the sector will explode higher. It is a catching up phenomena, in the end investors look in the garbage and find many small and micro cap stocks forgotten, lying on the floor and they pick them in rage.»
I will buy SKPI.OB at tomorrow's open.
Everyday I will analyze SKPI.OB after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.
Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 127% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php). We have great traders in our community which take advantage of short term opportunities in stocks.
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dave are you buying SKPI.OB as a 3.3% purchase or a 6.6% of the portfolio purchase?
thanx
rocket8
This is a very stable stock that will allow you to sleep well at night.. It has been discussed a little bit here http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=863.0
Supposedly there is only 26 million shares outstanding, but it has traded 3 million shares each of the last 2 trading days which doesen't really make sense since it is not a very volatile stock and shouldn't attract daytraders.
I'm already in AVLN and SKPI both, but I had to bail on AMEP earlier today, didn't act like I would expect after oil getting over $60.. I Share David's belief that we are about to enter into a great speculative bubble in oil and hopefully these stocks are the best places to profit from that
I'll buy just 3.33% of the portfolio, instead of the usual 6.66%.
You can see it on the homepage I bought SKPI.OB @$1.105
update on skpi plz. tks.
Actually, there will be 29.5 Million shares in SKPI after the most recent PP is done in the
next 3 to 7 days. Currently, there are 19.5 Million shares.
Just recently, the main director of the company donated 12 Milllion shares to the company,
which reduced the shares outstanding from 31.5 Million, to 19.5 Million. The latest PP
wil add 10 Million shares at $ .80, for a total now of 29.5 Million. Most of the restricted
stock in the company will become free-trading in December.
Two months ago, a 5 Million share PP was done at $ .50, raising $ 2.5 Million. There will
be at least 2 more PP's ( not including the current one being completed in the next 3 - 7
days ) done before year-end. They need to raise about another $ 15 - 20 Million to fulfill an
agreement they signed for drilling in the Middle East, which starts in December.
They seem to have no problem raising money, and the stock is very stable, considering
everything.
Thanks for your research martens58, great job :)
This is an oil related stock and that's why I bought it, 3.33% of my equity. SKPI.OB behaved quite well in yesterday's session, considering the fall in oil price. It is near the recent highs ... I like that, shows growing demand.
Holding it for the medium term, expecting a big rise with oil above $80 a barrel.
Again, this stock was pretty stable, considering the fall in oil futures. A blip higher from the price of oil and SKPI.OB will probably make new highs.
Not much more to say about this stock that I haven't said in my other 3 micro cap oil picks.
Do you have the daily analysis for SKPI
SKPI.OB had no open gaps in it's chart, it looks like the stock didn't want to start now. Probably it came down just to fill that gap on oil price weakness.
Just filling the gap wasn't enough for SKPI.OB to advance, it needed a bullish reversal candlestick like the hammer we got on Friday. Now I think the stock is ready to climb, at last.
SKPI.OB did advance with volume above average. This stock is responding quite well to changes in the oil price. I have only 3.33% of the 3SF portfolio on each of these micro cap oil stocks, and even if not all of them rise, it is possible for just one to rise so much that the group will yield good gains as a whole.
I've made a general analysis on these micro cap oil stocks on the AVLN.OB thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1024.msg7796#msg7796), the analysis is the same for SKPI.OB
I'll just leave the chart ...
(note that SKPI.OB never left an open gap on the chart, perhaps yesterday's fall was just to close the cap that was open in the $1.01-$1.019 range.)
There's no new technical or fundamental information on SKPI.OB for today. Keeping the stock, 3.33% of the 3 SOF portfolio.
Jesus, SKPI.OB just traded 15,900 shares yesterday. That's not good. But I'll hold the stock anyhow (perhaps I should say I will hold this option on the oil price).
SKPI.OB has such a strange behavior in volume terms. One day it almost doesn't trade, the next day it does 2 million shares. This looks like someone is «taking care» of the stock, a pool is being made to take this stock a lot higher.
Livermore talks a lot about these maneuvers on the final chapters of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. These things work the same way now as they did in 1923 ;)
Again, what a strange volume behavior on SKPI.OB. This looks like someone is manipulating the stock. One day it has a lot of volume, the next day the manipulator leaves it alone to the market forces. Nothing happens. It seems the man is testing the water now.
Distribution certainly doesn't act this way ...
SKPI.OB is still sleeping and boring. Stuck on a range between $0.95 and $1.08.
Absolutely nothing happened on SKPI.OB. Even in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator there are stories of many companies that, just because they were on a hot sector (like the oil sector now), rocketed to the moon, regardless of fundamentals.
The market works this way for centuries, it will continue this way forever I believe.
Beside AMEP.OB there's nothing new in the micro cap oil sector ...
At least today the stock had some volume. Still stuck on that range.
Absolutely nothing new on SKPI.OB. No news, no technical developments and no volume. I'm calling for a rally in these micro cap oil stocks when the oil price resumes its uptrend.
Nothing new on SKPI.OB on yesterday's session.
3.33% of 3 Stocks on Fire portfolio is parked on SKPI.OB, waiting for the upcoming oil and gas related stocks speculative bubble.
Nothing new on SKPI.OB, just 8,500 shares traded :-[
i can't believe it. were up. woo hoo.
A move on SKPI.OB? :o Amazing !
We've had these news near the close: Sky Petroleum Appoints Don Cameron to Chief Executive Officer - Solid Managerial Expertise Added to Company (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1952299&guid=%7BB2BD0E6F%2DE821%2D4B9E%2D804E%2D2BEA9F5C2C8E%7D&symb=)
This is a good thing, since prior management was internet related I believe ;D
I don't know if this is a start of a bullish move out of the $0.95-$1.08 range, it's hard to believe, but one has to give some credit to the white marubozu on the chart below:
Some volume on SKPI.OB and the stock closed above $1.08, which is a positive development. I'll continue to hold this small oil related stock.
SKPI.OB amazes me everytime it rises, me and a lot of people on this site ;D
I think this stock has a pool of manipulators in charge of taking it higher, a lot higher from current levels. Good manipulators take the stock as high as possible and then sell on the way down. So one just has to go with them and sell when they start selling.
This pool is in charge to take advantage of the upcoming oil stocks speculative bubble.
Hello David,
Just wondering what your thoughts were on the long term prospects of Sky Petroleum being a legitimate company. It is quite obvious there are manipulators controlling the price; the annoucement of Don Cameron CEO was actually late, because they had annouced it on their site the week before (at least). However, it certainly does give the company increased credibility.
I'm certainly fine if they continue to manipulate this stock upwards lol. 8)
I tell you the2ndhokage, since I saw what happened to EDNE.OB, clearly a stock being manipulated, I believe anything can happen with these stocks. A pool of manipulators has the job to take the stock as high as possible and then sell on the way down ... we'll see how high they take SKPI.OB, I hope it will be really high :o
We just have to continue to monitor the stock to see when they stop manipulating it, and then get out with them ... but I don't think this will happen before a bubble in oil stocks comes, I can see it coming !
These manipulators know what they're doing. A surprise rally took the stock to an higher level. Now they're maintaining the stock price at that new level with little, if any, money on balance.
The stock will probably hang around these levels with low volume before another surprise shot up occurs. Manipulators are not worried about selling their shares, they know demand will increase as the price rises ::). George Soros, on Alchemy of Finance, talks about this, stocks look like luxury goods, many times demand increases as the price rises and diminishes as the price falls.
52 week high today 1.27
It feels good to be in the hand of manipulators, because at least you know someone has a strong interest in putting this up. Yesterday the stock was up 7% on just 63,000 shares traded, amazing.
Keep holding SKPI.OB, take it as high as possible and sell on the way down ... but one has to see something like a distribution phase before considering a meaningful top was put in place.
Confortably holding SKPI.OB.
SKPI.OB just keeps on going. Volume is low but that doesn't matter, clearly a pool is in charge of taking this higher and creating a market at the top for distribution. Low volume is a good thing here, it will be easier to take it higher.
Hi Dave,
Is it too late to go in at 1.38?
I would love to jump in but the stock got already a nice 25% rise, so it looks very risky, don't you think???
Jumping into a stock at such a level of rise, made me burnt my fingers more than once! Lol!
In fact, I just need to know what is your target level and your exit level for SKPI.OB.
So I could figure out the reward/risk ratio, after doing the maths!
Following my book, it should be at least 2.5! Any other view?
Regards
Hello phabrux, thanks for your post. Could you tell what is your book?
The fact that the stock rose doesn't make it more risky, quite the contrary I believe.
I wouldn't like to see it close below $1.08 again, so you got your stop loss level. The upside potential is almost unlimited, you see, the stock is at an all time high on a very hot sector, expecting a speculative bubble in the coming months (that analyst yesterday on Bloomberg calling oil at $100 just adds fire to the situation).
I don't know how you got your $2.5, but after what I've seen with EDNE.OB I won't turn my back to these stocks being manipulated.
For decades manipulators do their job this way: take the stock as high as possible and sell on the way down. So don't expect many corrections along the way, they will take it as high as they can and the cheapest way to do it is the fast way !
Confortably holding SKPI.OB.
Hi Dave,
sorry but I don't remember the title of the book.
Ah! This is very disturbing, I just find a article who suggest to use
a reward to risk ratio between 3 and 4 and not 2.5 like I said
previously!(so with my 2,5 I was far from been conservative!) Here
are the lines:
One way of determining if the potential reward is worth the risk is to
use the simple Reward:Risk ratio which is calculated by (target
- entry)/(entry - stop-loss) and setting a minimum requirement before
a trade is considered.
In longer term equity trading the ratio should at least be 3 or 4, but
in warrant trading where we have a relatively big stop-loss and
shorter trades we need to be more "conservative" with a requirement of
2 or even less when we build the safety factors in somewhere else as
well.
The full theory is explained at this site:(I don't know how to post a
Url adress on 3SOF forum???...., maybee this will do the trick!)
http://www.finance24.com/trading/sawarrants/displayarticles.asp?Articl
eID=298386
"..........I don't know how you got your $2.5,but after what I've seen with
EDNE.OB................................................"
Dave,.....it seems to be a misunderstanding about the 2,5 figure.
This was the figure I had in mind yesterday for the Reward to Risk
ratio to use before entering in the stock. Lol
I hope SKPI.OB will keep rising!
Happy Trading!
Thanks for your explanation phabrux :)
SKPI.OB just keeps on rising, another all time high was set on Friday. Volume is low, which in this case is a good thing.
The lower the volume, the lower it is costing the pool of manipulators to take the stock price higher. If the cost to grow the share price is low, why not make it grow a lot? ;D
I'm not worried holding SKPI.OB as long as it shows low volume. Manipulators still need to create a market on these shares before they can sell. Distribution needs high volume and investor interest.
Nothing to weigh or consider, I'll continue holding SKPI.OB for the foreseeable future.
It is possible the manipulators of SKPI.OB will let the stock trade between $1.30 and $1.50 with low volume, like they did with the range $0.95-$1.08. Later, they will break the range higher and led some more buyers and traders to the stock.
Remember, they need to create a market on the stock. Predictable moves and a stable chart helps attracting traders.
Regardless of what happens over the short term, I'll continue to hold SKPI.OB.
SKPI.OB traded just 48,350 shares today and I'm happy about it ;D This may seem strange, and you need to read this thread a bit back to understand my reasoning.
Confortably holding SKPI.OB ...
Hi,
What are you thinking about the SKPI - zero volume today?!
I don't see any trade: http://www.otcbb.com/asp/Info_Center.asp
Regards, Gregory
Quote from: gri64 on August 11, 2005, 11:11:02 AM
Hi,
What are you thinking about the SKPI - zero volume today?!
I don't see any trade: http://www.otcbb.com/asp/Info_Center.asp
Regards, Gregory
Hello Gregory, in fact, the lower the volume the best for SKPI.OB. When volume kicked in a bit we just saw the stock up 28% with just 83,800 shares traded, can you believe it? Off course you can, it was true at the high of the day ... that goes for volume considerations around SKPI.OB, that is, don't consider it.
We got some news while I was out ... I see the CEO has options to buy shares at $0.5, $0.8 and $1, 500,000 shares at which level, which is not very relevant since the company has 26 million shares outstanding.
We also had these news before the market open on Friday:
«Sky Petroleum Announces Completion of $8.0 Million Private Placement
$8.0 Million Private Placement Oversubscribed
Aug 12, 2005 2:00:00 AM
AUSTIN, TX -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 08/12/05 -- Sky Petroleum, Inc. (OTC BB: SKPI), an oil and gas exploration and development company, announced today that it has completed an $8.0 million private placement of shares after receiving qualified subscriptions for over 10,000,000 shares of the company at $0.80 per share. The securities offered by Sky Petroleum have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933.
Preliminary results indicate that the company received subscriptions in excess of the 10,000,000 shares available to be issued pursuant to the private placement. Details of the shares available for the over-subscription will be forthcoming.
"We are very pleased and encouraged to see the amount of investor confidence in Sky Petroleum and the Mubarek development project," said Don Cameron, chief executive officer at Sky Petroleum, Inc. "As a result of this private placement, Sky Petroleum will have access to the resources required to continue to advance the project."
On July 21, 2005 the company announced it had received bridge loans in the aggregate amount of $2.45 million to fund a portion of the financial commitments of Sky Petroleum's wholly owned subsidiary, Sastaro Limited ("Sastaro") pursuant to the Participation Agreement, dated May 18, 2005, between Sastaro and Buttes Gas and Oil Co. International Inc. ("BGOI"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Crescent Petroleum Company International Limited ("Crescent"), through which Sastaro will participate in an off-shore oil and gas project in the United Arab Emirates. In connection with this financing, the Company issued demand promissory notes bearing interest at eight percent (8%) per annum. The bridge loans will be converted to shares as part of the completed $8.0 million private placement.
The alliance with BGOI and Crescent unites Sky Petroleum with one of the United Arab Emirates most established and successful, integrated low-cost operators with over 30 years of extensive experience in the region. As established operators in the Mubarek oil and gas field for over three decades, BGOI and Crescent bring extensive knowledge of the geological formations and reservoir potential of the Mubarek Field.
Mubarek Development Project
The first commercial oil was produced in the mid 1970's in the Mubarek Field, marking the beginning of over three decades of continuous production. The total estimated cumulative recovery to date exceeds 100 million barrels of oil. Sky Petroleum believes that this represents approximately 30% of the estimated original oil in place (STOIIP) of 275 million barrels and that there are significant additional reserves that may be produced by the new infill well program. The Mubarek Field production facilities have the capacity to process 60,000 barrels of oil per day.
The company expects the first phase of a proposed two-phase infill drilling program into the Ilam/Mishrif reservoir situated within the Mubarek Field to commence in early 2006.
About Sky Petroleum
Sky Petroleum (OTC BB: SKPI) is an oil and gas exploration and development company. Sky Petroleum's primary focus is to seek opportunities where discoveries can be appraised rapidly, and developments can be advanced either by accessing existing infrastructure, or by applying the extensive experience of established joint-venture partners. In addition, the company also plans some higher risk, higher reward exploration prospects. For additional information please visit www.skypetroleum.com»
We get some dilution, but that doesn't matter much to the stock price at this moment.
There's only one thing moving SKPI.OB higher, I believe, and that's the finest manipulation. Manipulation will take this stock a lot higher, as high as possible, then a distribution phase will follow and then a big break on the share price. As a speculator I want to go with the flow, appreciate the job of manipulators and sell when they sell. When will they sell? Just after they've created an active market on the stock, probably much higher than where it is now ... so low volume doesn't bother me, at all, in fact I'll sell just when I see a lot of stock changing hands.
Nothing new on SKPI.OB, still trending higher on extremely low volume, as we want ;)
SKPI.OB filed a "FORM 12B-25 - NOTIFICATION OF LATE FILING" and the reasons given were:
«The attention and efforts of management and financial officers were fully
directed toward completing a necessary financing and, as a result, preparation
of the necessary information was delayed.»
I could dislike this information, but not with SKPI.OB. The last time the company said it had raised funds was July 28th before the open and the stock rose 10% on that session.
So I'll just continue to hold SKPI.OB, hoping my profits will grow more, possibly a lot more.
The complete absency of volume on SKPI.OB (just 13,800 shares traded today) tells me the manipulators didn't sold yet, how could they? There was no volume.
So, their job isn't finished yet, expect some big white candles anyday on SKPI.OB.
I'll continue holding SKPI.OB, must see if my manipulation theory is right or not, to learn for future similar situations.
My take is this stock won't go down a lot if it hadn't a previous distribution phase with high volume. It didn't had any volume over the last few sessions, so I maintain that whoever is manipulating the stock hasn't sold yet.
But I've promised to build somekind of safety net on SKPI.OB, so if the stock closes again below $1.25 I'll sell.
Nothing new on SKPI.OB, a white candle with low volume (but a bit better than the ones we've been having), I'll continue holding according to plan.
The second quarter report was out yesterday after the close on SKPI.OB. I was reading it thoroughly and I've decided to sell the stock today if there's some volume where I can unload.
My reasoning is the following:
1) I've accumulated some losses on these micro cap oil "investments" and have an open profit of 31% in SKPI.OB that could put the whole campaign in the green.
2) I've learned that production and revenues from this company, at best, will come only at the second quarter of 2006. Well, I believe the oil bubble will be over by then, so it's possible the production won't even happen because liquidity to fund operation may dry up. There's no speculative incentive.
3) Perhaps the stock isn't being manipulated as I thought, perhaps what's happening is just some sort of stock promotion that is taking it higher with low volume.
I'll take profits today if I have the chance of doing it without inducing great damage to the stock price.
My mistake with these micro cap oil plays was that the companies were too small, even without production. I should have looked for small caps, but not micro caps ... perhaps a big speculative push will still come, but I see no signs of it with oil already above $65 a barrel.
I'll bail out, learn my lesson and move on ...
Quote from: David Randolph on August 23, 2005, 04:53:29 AM
I was reading it thoroughly and I've decided to sell the stock today if there's some volume where I can unload.
I said I would do it, and I did it, sold SKPI.OB at $1.4 for a 26% profit.
SKPI analysis; price target: 2.75$
1)
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=3626
2)
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=3186
chart:
Dutton Associates Raises Sky Petroleum Price Target to $3.15
Monday , April 03, 2006 03:59 ET
AUSTIN, TX, Apr 03, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Sky Petroleum, Inc. (OTC BB: SKPI), an oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to announce that on March 29, 2006, Richard R. Wolfe, CFA of Dutton Associates, reiterated his Buy rating and raised his target price to $3.15.
The following is from the Research Note:
"We have had a BUY rating on shares of Sky Petroleum at a 12-month target price of $2.75, and the stock's most recent close (March 28) was at $2.60. Based on a preliminary review of updated cash flow projections for the company, we are increasing our target price to $3.15 and maintain our BUY rating. We expect to issue a full update on Sky Petroleum during the next two weeks, following the company's expected annual filing. The forthcoming update will include a comprehensive valuation analysis."
&
Sky Petroleum Set 52-Week Closing High On Higher Volume
Wednesday, April 05, 2006 23:55 ET
(financialwire.net via COMTEX) -- April 6, 2006 (FinancialWire) Sky Petroleum Inc (OTCBB: SKPI) gained 6.33% on volume of 435,330, which was higher than its average 306,665, to close at $3.19, a new 52-week closing high.
Sky Petroleum is covered by Investrend Research affiliate SISM Research's analyst Ernest C. Schlotter, an oil and gas analyst and a four-star analyst, according to StarMine. On December 7, 2005, Schlotter initiated coverage with a "Speculative Buy/4" rating and a 12-month price target of $4.20. SISM Research is distributed by the Investrend Research Syndicate.
Both SISM Research and Investrend Research subscribe to the "Standards for Independent Research Providers" at http://www.firstresearchconsortium.com and adhere to the Guidelines for independent providers jointly endorsed by the National Investor Relations Institute (http://www.niri.org) and the CFA Institute (http://www.cfainstitute.org)
According to the New York Times (NYSE: NYT), a survey by Charles Schwab & Co. reveals an astonishing 78 percent of active stockholders now "value research from independent firms over analysis by Wall Street firms with financial ties to the companies they are rating." A survey at Investopedia reveals that 74.7% of investors say that "legitimate fee-based research is objective and useful," and 70.9% say that a company that enrolls for "legitimate fee-based research is making a positive statement about its investment potential."
Sky Petroleum Inc. pays SISM Research $1,750 per month over a one-year period solely to ensure independent coverage.
FEEDBACK & Comments are appreciated
thanks
Oliver ;)
Dutton Associates Raises Sky Petroleum Price Target to $3.90
Monday , April 10, 2006 03:59 ET
AUSTIN, TX, Apr 10, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Sky Petroleum, Inc. (OTC BB: SKPI), an oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to announce that on April 6, 2006, Richard R. Wolfe, CFA of Dutton Associates, reiterated his Buy rating and raised his target price to $3.90.
The following is from the Research Note:
"Based on our review of Sky Petroleum's recently filed annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005, we are raising our target price on SKPI shares. The new target price is $3.90 and reflects accumulating evidence from SKPI's ongoing drilling program in the Mubarek Field offshore United Arab Emirates. We now believe that our base-case scenario for Mubarek productivity deserves to be assigned a higher probability, and the effect, in our earnings/cash flow model, is to push our estimate of the company's valuation substantially higher (using a combination of cash-flow based and asset-value based valuation methods). We arrive at a median figure for valuation per common share of $3.90, and accordingly, we have set that figure ($3.90 per share) as our new target price for SKPI shares. The new target price is 22% higher than the most recent close (April 5, 2006) of $3.19 per share, and we therefore reaffirm our BUY rating on the shares."
&
SKPI march presentation:
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/14/148/148155/items/190729/Duttonfinal_032706.pdf
fyi: >:D
updated report:
http://www.jmdutton.com/research/skpi/reports/skpi_report_042706.pdf
I am invested....
nice chart today >:D >:D
cheers
Oliver