Market Cap: 4.30M
Medium term chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1381;image)
Motive to buy: «I have a special feeling to recognize and trade speculative bubbles. I've seen several of them and they always work the same way.
After a bull market we're entering a speculative bubble in oil and oil stocks. Usually the bubble accounts for 50% of the move of the entire bull market in 10% of the time. So I can historically and generally expect the oil index ($OIX in www.stockcharts.com) to rise some 50% in the next 4 months or so (100% for the people who bought at the beginning of the bull market in oil stocks), with the price of the barrel of oil itself to reach something north of $80.
Like I said, I've seen many speculative bubbles come and go ... and I can tell you, in the final months of the bull market, in the bubble territory, every stock that is in some way or another related to the sector will explode higher. It is a catching up phenomena, in the end investors look in the garbage and find many small and micro cap stocks forgotten, lying on the floor and they pick them in rage.»
I'll buy AVLN.OB at tomorrow's open.
Everyday I will analyze AVLN.OB after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.
Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 127% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php). We have great traders in our community which take advantage of short term opportunities in stocks.
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OK...I almost made a fool of myself. Be aware that the Yahoo site does not seem to accurately reflect this company's data. I almost questioned the sanity of this pick, and decided to google the company's name.
http://www.avalongold.ws/index.htm
Its worth the read. Seems they have an interest in a lease in an area where Encana (one of the energy picks Cramer rants about) among others are involved....hmmmm.
I'll buy just 3.33% of the portfolio, instead of the usual 6.66%.
You can see it on the homepage, I bought AVLN.OB @$0.142
Volume was great on AVLN.OB, but since oil dropped more than $2 on Tuesday it's not strange to see that the stock wasn't unable to advance more after the higher open.
We've had these news: Rising Value of Central Utah Oil and Gas Leases Positive for Avalon (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1948409&guid=%7BBFBAA2D5%2DAD57%2D4DB3%2D8773%2D7C24E7DBCD73%7D&symb=)
I have just 3.33% of portfolio in this stock and I'm holding it for the medium term, never mind the daily fluctuations. People will do everything they can to take advantage of these high oil prices and the companies in this sector will surely benefit.
HI...I am new to working with stocks like this. I dont trust the data that Yahoo shows on this stock. Where can i go to learn more about the fundamentals on this stock, and ones similar. Fundamentals such as the float, outstanding issues, captilization, balance sheet...things of that nature. TIA.
I like this stock because of its lease and the other companies that own leases in the same area as ECA and other notables in the industry
Coffee-
You might want to try www.reuters.com/finance. They're pretty thorough.
Irish
Sometimes I have the temptation to make one mistake and I believe many of our members make that mistake. It's a pretty tricky thing so I'll try to expose my point (given my English limitations).
Someone once said, I believe it was Peter Lynch, that people usually take more time choosing a refrigerator or a new TV set than a stock.That's true, for me that's true, although I'm pretty fast at choosing those things for the house too, I usually just have to say: «you choose it» ;D
When we buy a stock we must have a reason to do it, be it technical or fundamental. Since most of us buy fast, the reason probably isn't very complex, is it? After buying we have all the time in the world to research and dig more about the stock, but is it worth it, are you being truthful to yourself by doing that?
I don't think so. Many times we want to excuse our trading mistakes by turning ourselves into experts on that particular stock. You think «I'm losing money, but I know what I'm doing since I know the company's fundamentals and prospects».
A trader must buy for a reason. He must sell when that reason is no longer valid. Period.
What's the stock I'm analyzing? Oh, it's AVLN.OB, ok. This is a «perfectly normal» red candle in a rectangular accumulation zone, one expects:
just heard on CNBC, the CEO of OPEC suspends the talk of raising output unless oil hits $60 again. putting pressure on oil price
lol it's getting interesting.
Nothing new to say about AVLN.OB. Volume increased a little.
I have been looking for some good undervalued natural gas stocks to acquire this summer in preparation for the upcoming fall and winter season. This little gem has caught my eye on the 3StocksOnFire site. Now with legislation in the works to promote domestic drilling and with the potential oil reserves now being found in Utah seem to make this a hidden gem. The more I look the more I like. The technicals for me are appealing and I like the entry point at these prices. I bought in today with a nice position...
We shall see!!!!!!
I wish you make a good trade aitech61, and thank you for your first post :)
AVLN.OB is trading in a range between $0.11 and $0.15. Some people believe in particular companies or products, I prefer to believe in global long term market trends, as the one that's happening in oil at this moment.
Holding AVLN.OB for the upcoming oil & gas bubble.
Honestly, I am quite content with the trading action we have been seeing. I am actually accumulating a position in this range. Several of my larger cap Natural Gas stocks are moving higher with one reaching a 52 week high today. All quite positive IMHO.
Now lets see I am presently holding some larger cap Natural Gas stocks and what am I doing???? Starting to speculate with a few of the micro's that haven't moved much lately. Now I am not nieve enough to think I am the only investor doing this.. I expect it... I anticipate what I call a trickle down effect and I am willling to wait. You will be seeing investment, of some profits earned in the larger caps, in a select few of the micro caps based solely on speculation of future growth prospects. Is this based on a bubble. I dont know. A percieved bubble. Who knows. Once the energy bill is passed and signed into law followed by the fall and winter season I expect to see some very nice returns in the works.
Interesting Headlines:
++ Natural Gas Storage Surplus May Drop Year-Over-Year
05.17.05, 11:48 AM ET - This PR doesn't hurt the outlook at all !!!!!
++ Rising Value of Central Utah Oil and Gas Leases Positive for Avalon
Tuesday June 28, 6:30 am ET
Avalon Energy has an undivided 85% working interest in the Shotgun Draw Prospect in the prolific natural gas producing Uinta Basin, located in the US Rockies, Utah. The lease comprises 13,189 acres with a potential 4 TCF recoverable gas and is overpressured by a 0.55 - 0.85 gradient.
According to available data in the area, the Shotgun Draw Prospect has been delineated using several hundred miles of seismic. The seismic data confirms the thick Emery pay section and shows several sediment wedges in the prospect area. The Shotgun Draw Prospect borders other leases owned by EOG Resources Inc. and EnCana Corporation. Bill Barrett Corporation.
*** Now I will provide a little information about EOG and reference to its upcoming plans.
EOG Resources Ranked 956th Largest Company In The World
EOG profit more than doubles
By Lisa Sanders, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:47 PM ET April 26, 2005
EOG Big Target Plays Next 18 Months: (you will see Utah West Uinta Basin referenced)
http://www.eogresources.com/media/slides/UBS_0505.pdf
*** Now for the icing on the cake:
++ Rising Value of Central Utah Oil and Gas Leases Positive for Avalon
Tuesday June 28, 6:30 am ET
Although Avalon's main focus is natural gas, there are also known deposits of oil on the Uinta Basin Prospect which the Company intends to explore.
Avalon Energy Corp. reports that further to its news release dated May 10, 2005, the Company is optimistic about the recent oil and gas government auction in Utah fueled by the recent spectacular oil discovery in Central Utah. Deemed the largest onshore find in at least 30 years, located in a region of complex geology long abandoned for exploration by major oil companies.
The discovery, located 130 miles south of Salt Lake City, was made by Wolverine Gas & Oil Corp., a privately held company located in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Wolverine's test well hit "pay" in late 2003 and by May 2004 it started producing from a single deposit estimated to contain 100-200 million barrels of oil. Wolverine and government geologists said the company is looking at a total of 25 deposits that could contain 1 billion barrels of oil.
*** My take is speculation alone will run this stock up in due time. Now we start seeing some of the fruits from the Uinta Basin. This could become a wonderful short and long term hold to reap some major rewards !!!
*** Just my take on whats happening in the Natural Gas Sector and the land of Avalon Energy Corp. ....
We shall see. I could be wrong...... But then I could be right!!!
Have a great day all!!!!!!
Thanks for your research aitech61.
There was no new technical information on AVLN.OB today. The general discussion on the micro cap oil stocks future was in the AMEP.OB post (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=729.msg7181#msg7181).
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/050706/090000.html
Good news today.
its weird how AVLN and AMEP dont move on good news, while some others oil stocks jump
up big on not so big news, such as TPLM and MPET
???
cheers
In on a limit for initial position at .116
I consider this small oil stocks I have in the 3SF portfolio as oil price out of the money options. With oil at $60 they're not worth much, but with oil at $80 they're worth a lot of money.
I'm pretty convinced oil will get to $80 over the next few months, so I guess these options will be «in the money» by then. We'll just see how this plays out, I have only 3.33% of portfolio in each oil micro cap, totaling around 13% of the portfolio.
AVLN.OB is still stuck in a trading range, between $0.11 and $0.14. Friday the stock rebounded on higher volume.
No new technical information on AVLN.OB, still stuck on that range.
Again, absolutely no new technical or fundamental information on AVLN.OB. Sleeping now, will probably wake up only when oil is at $80, then it will shot up 1000% out of nowhere ... that's my expectation.
AVLN.OB closed right at support. I don't know if it will break or not, I won't sell anyway. I have 3.33% of speculative capital in this «oil option» and I'm willing to pay to see what happens to these small oil related stocks if and when oil hits $80 a barrel.
i hate AVLN already. haha.
there's no action.
at least TIDE dances around.
OK i will wait. i think it will go up too.
AVLN.OB closed again right at support, making a «matching low» candlestick pattern, which means inversion, from bearish to bullish. I don't know if with such a low volume the pattern is reliable, but it is there, reinforced by the fact that the close was bang in line with medium term support.
It is possible it will break support and make something like TIDE.OB did, I don't know, I won't sell anyway.
The matching low pattern and the $0.111 support did worked to make AVLN.OB rebound from the lows. Volume on yesterday's up day was higher than the volume on the prior two down days.
This is bullish behavior, probably AVLN.OB will rise to the top of it's trading channel, around $0.15.
Nothing new on AVLN.OB, just leaving the chart.
AVLN.OB still holding support, I won't sell anyway. I have just 3.33% of speculative capital in this micro cap oil play, and I'm in for the coming bubble in oil related stocks.
AVLN.OB is building a base around support at $0.0111 despite of the fall in oil prices. That's bullish behavior.
AVLN.OB is still on the base of that rectangular technical formation. There's no news or press releases from the company in a long time. Perhaps the stock will gain traction from the higher oil prices today.
Not a lot of traction from higher oil prices like other bigger oil companies but at least AVLN.OB is holding support at $0.11.
Avalon Energy's LAK Ranch Oil Project Expanding
By Market Wire
Last Update: 7/25/2005 6:31:02 AM Data provided by
BELLINGHAM, WA, Jul 25, 2005 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Avalon Energy Corporation (AVLN) reports that further to our News Release dated June 30, 2005, Ivanhoe Energy Inc. and Derek Oil & Gas Corporation have agreed to expand the enhanced oil recovery pilot program at the LAK Ranch field in Weston County, Wyoming.
The Company owns a 0.70% (.70 of 1%) proportionate, reducible, Gross Overriding Royalty interest in the LAK Ranch Oil Project located in Newcastle, Wyoming. This royalty interest equates to $0.35 per barrel based on a price of $50.00 per barrel for Avalon.
The pilot steam flood in the LAK Ranch field will be expanded with the drilling of three steam injection wells. This expansion follows completion of a 3-D seismic survey of the area and a thorough interpretation of the survey results. The new wells will provide for a continuous injection of steam above the existing horizontal wells. The pilot program to date has consisted of three cycles of steam injected into a horizontal well, located approximately 25 feet above the injection well. Oil production has increased with each cycle and is currently about 20 barrels per day following the third steam cycle.
Ivanhoe has reported that it estimates that at the low end of the projected recovery range, the initial development program could grow to more than 20 producing wells and oil production volumes in excess of 4,500 barrels per day. Optimum daily production rates could exceed 10,000 barrels per day.
The LAK Ranch field, originally discovered in the 1920s, covers approximately 7,500 acres in the Powder River Basin. Thirty wells have been drilled by several operators to define the significant oil in place for this project, and a number of small scale attempts have been made to economically recover the oil. Ivanhoe Energy believes the use of horizontal wells and continuous steam injection offers the most promising chance of success and some encouraging results have been achieved to date. The pilot expansion is expected to be completed by August pending drill rig availability.
While the Company maintains its position in the LAK Ranch, its main focus is the Shotgun Draw Uinta Basin overpressured gas project.
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: The statements contained herein which are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, certain delays in testing and evaluation of products and other risks detailed from time to time in Avalon's filings with the Securities & Exchange Commission.
SOURCE: Avalon Energy Corporation
After a day where AVLN.OB traded just 14,500 shares management decided to issue a press release, thank God !
Avalon Energy's LAK Ranch Oil Project Expanding (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1948409&guid=%7B27EB7860%2D76CC%2D4B4D%2DAE5F%2D544E1877BE23%7D&symb=)
I don't know if this will have an effect on AVLN.OB, but I'm holding the stock ...
Nah, no effect, nothing new on AVLN.OB, I'll continue to hold though.
are any of you adding in at this point. I feel this is bottom, so i will at this time. add at .112
GL
Another visit to support from AVLN.OB and the stock held again.
Very low volume day on AVLN.OB, it made a just one price, that is, there's nothing to say or consider about this stock today.
AVLN.OB has a market cap of just $3.57M, so anything could push this penny stock higher. Oil prices are now hovering around $61 a barrel, how much will this oil option (AVLN.OB) be valued at when oil gets to $80 a barrel?
Some life at the bottom for AVLN.OB. I have just 3.33% of portfolio in this penny stock, so I'm allowed to have a lot of patience. The oil price is moving in the right direction, so it's just a matter of time, I believe.
The stock is still stuck on a range between $0.11 and $0.14.
Another day without history on AVLN.OB, but hey, SKPI was like this too, and now look at her ;D
Still on that range, still with a very small market cap ...
Another press release. Maybe this will put some fire under AVLN...
Utah's Energy Boom Affirming for Avalon
Wednesday August 3, 6:30 am ET
BELLINGHAM, WA--(MARKET WIRE)--Aug 3, 2005 -- Avalon Energy Corporation (OTC BB:AVLN.OB - News) owns an undivided 85% working interest in a giant gas field lease in the prolific natural gas producing Uinta Basin, located in the U.S. Rockies, Utah. The lease comprises 13,189 acres with a potential 4 TCF recoverable gas and is overpressured by a 0.55 - 0.85 gradient.
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Robert Klein, President, states that according to a recent article in The Salt Lake Tribune, the resurgence of the Rocky Mountain natural gas rush spurred on by the price of energy and the Bush administration's directive to encourage exploration and development is viewed as positive by the management of Avalon.
"Anytime you have an energy boom, you're reaping the glory of good, high-paying jobs," said Bill Johnson, director of economic development for Uintah County. "Everybody is running to the bank with smiles on their faces."
Unlike better-developed fields in Wyoming and Colorado, it's still unknown just how much gas eventually will be recovered. However, it's certain to be more than what drillers found during the last boom, which extracted only about 3 percent of the known reserves, said Duane Zavadil, a spokesman for Denver-based gas exploration company Bill Barrett Corp. Armed with high-tech exploration techniques including seismic surveys, gamma-ray measurement and high-pressure hydraulics to fracture deep rock, energy exploration companies are fanning out across the basin, drilling 4,000 to 15,000 feet to get at so-called unconventional gas trapped in the wrinkles of the Earth.
A study completed last year by the Utah Energy Office estimated that a single gas well in Uintah or Duchesne County would create 13 new jobs and $309,300 in additional personal income. The state would net $55,300 in tax revenues, the counties $29,200.
According to the Department of Energy; Bill Barrett Corporation; the Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States; Estimates for technically recoverable natural gas in the Rocky Mountains range from 226 to 383 trillion cubic feet. A single gas well will produce about 2 billion cubic feet of gas. An average household uses 125,000 cubic feet of natural gas per year, which means one well will supply 800 homes during its 20-year life span. In 2003, proven natural gas reserves in the Rocky Mountain states represented 27 percent of U.S. reserves, or 18 percent of the nation's supply. The Rockies' share of lower-48 production will near 40 percent by 2025. Currently, natural gas supplies about 20 percent of the nation's energy needs, but is the fastest-growing energy source. Demand is forecast to increase nearly 40 percent during the next 20 years, including a 50 percent uptick in demand for gas-fired electric power. Gas heats 61 percent of U.S. households, cools homes and provides fuel for cooking.
On behalf of the Company,
/s/Robert Klein
Robert Klein, President
Visit our website at www.avalonenergy.ws
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: The statements contained herein which are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, certain delays in testing and evaluation of products an other risks detailed from time to time in Avalon's filings with the Securities & Exchange Commission.
Contact:
For further information
Contact investor relations:
1-888-488-6882
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Avalon Energy Corporation
Well, at least a little life was shown ::)
Thanks for posting the press release basonista.
AVLN.OB did rally a bit from support zone. Resistance now is at $0.14. Considering the market cap on this stock which is very low I believe it doesn't need much to fly higher, and technicals point that way, after a big base was built.
I'll continue to hold AVLN.OB.
AVLN.OB couldn't hold yesterday's rise. Not surprising. I'll continue to hold this micro cap for the expected bubble in oil and oil related stocks.
Nice volume today. I like the way the stock is performing under the radar. I suspect some nice accumulation is taking place before the word gets out regarding the potential of AVLN in the Uinta Basin. I know I am. This will be big!!
Oil and NG is maintiaining its uptrend and no catalyst is in sight to stop it...
IMHO this stock is definitely going to have a nice autumn and winter season..
I agree with you aitech61, nice volume above 1 million shares on AVLN.OB.
The stock is still stuck on that range between $0.11 and $0.14, a break of the $0.14 level with volume above average would give us a very strong buy signal. I'm expecting that, and with the oil price above $64 I believe this outcome is just a matter of time.
Today we got very bullish action on AVLN.OB, with price and volume rising in tandem. The stock rose 9% today, but I'm still losing 3.5% on this position. It's wrong to let a profit turn into a loss, but it is a good thing to let a loss turn into a profit :D
AVLN.OB will face some resistance at the $0.14-$0.15 level, I hope the higher oil prices will encourage bulls to take this micro cap oil related stock up, up and away.
The potential for this company is why one holds... The stock historically trades up through the fall and winter. My bet is this will be a very good fall and winter for pps appreciation.
This blurb is from one of the Pr's over the last several months. I like the reference to $28 billion reserve potential when the price is at $7. Today it is pushing $9. Now that is potential...... Makes 13 cents seem ridiculous. The o/s is around 32 million shares, maybe a little more at this point. This could appreciate quite quickly this fall.... Like I have said before I dont mind this stock staying below the radar for a little longer.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Management Identifies Three Drill Targets in Uinta Basin
Monday April 25, 7:00 am ET
Avalon announces that the Company's Management, Robert Klein and Robert Milam, will be meeting with several independent oil and gas professionals on April 26th and 27th in Utah. The purpose of the meeting is to review certain proprietary seismic data pertaining to the prospect and to confirm the initial three (3) drill targets for permitting purposes. In addition, a drilling budget report will be prepared based on the technical data and information from the experts.
Carlton Parfitt emphasizes, "With natural gas selling at today's price of approximately $7.00 USD per cubic feet of gas (CFG), the value of the potential 4.2 TCF of recoverable gas is extremely positive, approximately $28 billion USD! It is very exciting to know that several of the major oil and gas companies who also own leases in the area are planning to drill this summer which shows that they share our enthusiasm."
Nice volume again today with positive cashflow. Definite uptrend in the making. Looking for confirmation. Lets see that 13dma blast through the 50dma. Lets make the trend our friend. We are getting so close to a break out. Honestly I think it is as good as a done deal, but in the markets you can never be certain. If it decides to consolidate here I plan to go back to accumulation mode. We see a major push through .15 cents I am adding huge. IMHO we are on the verge of some major price appreciation. I am keeping dry powder ready.
We shall see!!!!!
Along with some major earnings potential, I am sure the following had something to do with it...WOW!!!!
Wednesday, August 10, 2005: NYMEX Natural Gas Futures for September delivery closed up $0.422 at $9.071 per MMBTU
Based on the TA of AVLN's 3 month chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avln.ob&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=m100%2Cm50%2Cm20%2Cm200&a=m26-12-9%2Cr14%2Cvm%2Cfs&c=
the stochastic is staying above the 50 level and the MACD has a buy signal. The 20MA is getting ready to penetrate the 50 (a mini golden cross I think they call it). I am bidding tomorrow .135 to open my position and hopefully catch it before the breakout. Will need to be flexible though.
I agree, aitech61, to increase position following a close above .15. AVLN's weekly chart looks great too. The ADX has begun to open up:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=avln,uu[w,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ll14]&pref=G
Thanks for the pick. Looking forward to Avalon rising above the Mists!
David: I appreciate hearing you tell about holding a loss and watching it turn into a profit. I'm currently in two situations with PHOX and IBTGF (though it hammered yesterday). Got to give them ample room to wiggle and just enough time to gain momentum, as long as their chart still says "BUY".
Nice day with super volume and price appreciation... Oil & Natural Gas continue to rise. The obvious will see consolidation in time but the fall and winter seasons are still to come. AVLN does tremendous over these timeframes. I wont even speculate on the growth potential of this holding, except that I think it will be good!!
Congrats to all in the stock!!!
Thanks for your posts aitech61 and airv :)
I'm not a big fan of seasonals of that kind aitech61, and I wouldn't buy the stock just because the fall and winter is coming.
AVLN.OB made a major breakout of the $0.14 level, so now those long days without volume spent at the $0.11 support are being compensated.
The next resistance I have comes only around $0.29 on the long term chart, so I expect AVLN.OB to continue to rise, after some normal correction and consolidation.
Stock re-acting as expected. Nice consolidation taking place before its next leg up. Several are patiently accumulating. The stock is slowly getting into range of the radar. I like this stock for a number of reasons, undervalued shareprice, low o/s, Uinta Basin reserves, and the fall and winter seasons coming up because historically natural gas has nice price appreciation for increased demands over the colder months.
The normal dips that occur in August I dont see happening this year because of one the hottest summers on record in the U.S.. 20% of our electricity is generated using natural gas.
Friday, August 12, 2005: NYMEX Natural Gas Futures for September delivery closed up $0.287 at $9.588 per MMBTU... Incredible..
I remain bullish on natural gas and oil going forward. There is no catalyst in sight that will hold it down. If anything there are a number geo political events that could send prices much much higher...
We shall see!!!!!
Thanks for your post aitech61, I agree with you.
AVLN.OB issued a Form 10-QSB saying the following: «AVALON ENERGY CORPORATION is requesting this extension because we are waiting for supporting documents in order to complete the June 30, 2005 quarterly numbers. Final information from the financial statements is required for the completion of certain portions of the report 10-QSB.»
Late filing, nothing serious.
As aitech61 wrote, the stock is reacting well to a retest of the prior resistance, now support levels.
I have a 20% open profit on this micro cap oil and gas related stock, the only thing to do is to let the profits run.
I had 4 micro cap oil sector plays: AMEP.OB, AVLN.OB, TIDE.OB and SKPI.OB. I sold the losers (AMEP.OB and TIDE.OB) and I still hold the winners (AVLN.OB and SKPI.OB).
That's the proper way to trade. I think in the end my strategy on these oil micro caps will pay out handsomely. We'll see, the jury is still out on that.
AVLN.OB made a nice come back today to close at $0.17 again. This time the lower shadow is bigger and support was effectively touched, so I expect some bullish continuation for the next days.
QuoteAVLN.OB made a nice come back today to close at $0.17 again. This time the lower shadow is bigger and support was effectively touched, so I expect some bullish continuation for the next days.
Didn't happened. The candle was strong on paper but had lack of volume. Today AVLN closed again at the prior resistance, now support level of $0.155. Volume was a bit higher today.
I'll continue to hold the stock.
Natural Gas had a down day after running up the last several days.....
Wednesday, August 17, 2005: NYMEX Natural Gas Futures for September delivery closed down $0.361 at $9.391 per MMBTU.
Still well over $9, which I believe is incredible. All my natural gas holdings are now in consolidation mode after nice run ups.... Quite normal and healthy. I believe the next several months will be very good to the Natural Gas sector.
After labor day we will have to see if oil takes a slight dip. Historically it does. I do NOT see this happening to Natural Gas.
I am holding and plan too for quite some time, unless the fundamentals in the sector break down, which I dont see happening. As for AVLN all I need to say is Uinta Basin and now at current NG prices over 36 billion dollars in NG reserves... AVLN entered into these leases in early 2005. The leases themselves are quite valuable. Companies are bending over backwards trying to attain real estate with reserves. This stock has all the potential to run and in a big way. Last reported o/s was just 32 million.
It could get quite exciting!
Thanks for your encouraging post aitech61, it's hard to keep up the mood when one has a stock that goes down 4% with just 181,600 shares traded.
What an uninspiring start to these updates, AVLN.OB ... but, what you see is what you get, it doesn't matter how much a stock is down or boring you'll always read a daily update on that stock until it's actually sold.
I'm not selling AVLN.OB yet, but I sure feel like it. Really like to respect RULE 4: Never Let a Profit turn into a Loss. I hope the stock rebounds tomorrow, holding for the next session, though.
It seems AVLN is trading right along with natural gas which took a hit again today... Doesn't concern me after the hefty runup... To me today the stock declined on low volume, which to me is positive. Volume drying up on the downside. The volume was high on the upside.
The stock touched near the 13dma today. I have a 50dma of .126 and plan to hold until it reaches that level. Then I will make my call. Right now with my positive outlook on the stock will probably add to my position expecting a bounce. It is quite possible it never touches that level.
I think this stock has alot more upside over the next several weeks. One may require patience.
We shall see!!!!!
Dave,
now than AVLN is so close to the Support line 0.14, you would have so little to loose to keep and watch it landing very gently on the 0.14 support line.
Here is my suggestion: you keep this stock while it stays above that mental line 0.14, and if the expectation of a strong rebound in the next few days or weeks is still intact in the reading of the chart, something like the one we saw at the end of July.
Looking at the chart in July, AVLN kissed the support line 0.11 almost every day for around 2 weeks, this happy love story between AVLN and the support line ended in the sky with a 72% gain and big volume! 0.11 ---> 0.19
If this happen again, 0.141 --> 0.19 we get a 37,75% gain, that still pays off your work and patience! :)
Actually, I don't have any share yet, to me it is the right time to jump in at the level of 0.141 only if you consider the support line strong enough to hold there! In the affirmative, I couldn't find a better entry, for an astonishing Reward to Risk ratio of 24,5.
Do you share that view?
Here is my finding about the Reward to Risk ratio topic for AVLN.OB,
with for: entry: 0.141$, stop: 0.139$, target: 0.19$
Reward to Risk Ratio: (0.19 - 0.141) / ( 0.141 - 0.139 ) = 49/2 = 24,5
Reward/Risk Ratio of 24.5 ---------->Gain: 34,75% / Lost: 1.4%
PS: A entry with a Reward/Risk Ratio below 2.5 is not recommended!
Until which level can I jump in with a R/R Ratio of 2.5 ?
( t + s*2.5 ) / ( 2.5 + 1 ) = 0.1535$
So the last recommended entry for AVLN.OB( 2.5 ) is : ----------> 0.1535$
Reward/Risk Ratio of 2.5 ----------->Gain: 25,00% / Lost:10,0%
Best Regards
It's great that you've made some commentaries because I had nothing new to say about the stock :D
I agree with phabrux's math and trading plan, there's just a problem: AVLN.OB may break $0.14 on the intraday and close higher and that would still mean a buy/hold, not a sell. So it's probably hard, since you want to sell on close, to get $0.139 as a selling price on a real break of the support line.
The rest seems fine and $0.14 is indeed a valid support level. The stock rallied to the $0.18 resistance and pulled back to the new found support, prior resistance, of $0.14. Now we'll see which is more important, the $0.14 support or the $0.18 resistance.
I'll do what the market tells me to do, I hold this stock for too long to think too much ... so I'll sell it if it is set to close below $0.14.
Second quarter results were out yesterday. I've read some but don't have a clue what the market reaction will be, it's hard to know what's in the stock and what's not.
I have no strong motives to change my previously made trading plan, which is to sell if the stock is set to close below $0.14, or sell with a profit at the $0.29 descending resistance.
That's it, I've totally lost patience with these micro cap oil stocks, I'll sell AVLN.OB tomorrow if I get the chance given by volume.
Just look at the chart below: the market is showing the $0.18 resistance level is more important than the $0.14 support, so eventually this will break.
I hate to see you go Randolph but I totally understand. I am averaged in much lower and in this case am looking at the next several months when NG goes higher and AVLN has drilling in progress.. I am still up and plan to hold for the mid to long term...
The 10Q has cause this little added selling but I figure most of those left will be looking to the pot of gold at then end of the Rainbow... The Uinta Basin and I figure at $10 per MMBTU the overall value is in the 40 Billion dollar range, based on the previous estimates...
We shall see!!!!
How about trying FLWE? Seems to me it is just in the beginning of a breakout above the 200 MA. Had increased volume too today. I bought some at .80 last week.
Good morning !
With the technical problems we've had on the website during the night I'm very late to make these updates before the opening bell. I want to apologize for this.
It took me a long time but I ended up selling AVLN.OB at an average price of $0.129, like I said I would:
QuoteThat's it, I've totally lost patience with these micro cap oil stocks, I'll sell AVLN.OB tomorrow if I get the chance given by volume.
Just look at the chart below: the market is showing the $0.18 resistance level is more important than the $0.14 support, so eventually this will break.
I had just 3% of capital in this micro cap oil play, and so goes my speculative venture in this field.
There was a lesson to be learned, but we'll talk about it later ... good luck for those that continue to hold.
Changed Ticker Symbol
'AVLN.OB' is no longer valid. It has changed to SGNE.OB