I didn't do too badly when I picked one stock from the Video Portfolio (http://www.stocksonvideo.com/portfolio.php) to the Main Portfolio, which was PFSW, where I'm gaining 54% here at the Main.
ETLT.OB is a Chinese company that I know very well. I've studied it completely, read all the SEC files, know the business and see it trading at just 4 times earnings. The stock has been laying down there, this undervalued, for a long time ... I could never understand why, I guess it is just because people were not that confident on Chinese stocks, and ETLT.OB always carried a big warning in their SEC files, saying the Chinese currency wasn't freely convertible to the USD.
Of course, nobody is worried about that now, with Chinese stocks running very high, with or without attractive fundamentals. The recent SEC filings from ETLT.OB don't carry the warning anymore, as the company changed its auditors. I guess the other guys were excessively conservative.
I believe the recent enthusiasm for Chinese stocks will make ETLT.OB run at least 200%, to a 12 times earnings valuation (it should go up a lot more, but ... 200% would be just great ;D).
The stock still didn't take off, but it went up 8.4% with volume above average of 650,000 shares yesterday. This could be the start of something big ... the sun should shine for ETLT too, I've never seen a stock so undervalued remain this way for so long.
The Trading Plan is:
Buy ETLT.OB for the Main Portfolio, 5% of capital.
We just need ETLT.OB to cross over $0.74, a paltry 5.7% advance, to make believers out of the skeptics, to make people see the awesome fundamentals of this company.
It seems their cash pile is good for acquisitions, they recently announced two more:
• Eternal Technologies Group, Inc. (OTC BB: ETLT) Purchase Price Reduced on the Two Recent Acquisitions (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070917/20070917005398.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon, Sep 17)
Today I'm short on time (it is a public holiday here in Portugal), but over the next update I'll derive my valuation model for ETLT.OB.
I'll keep holding ETLT.OB for the long term.
If it isn't one, it's the other, ETLT.OB has a good shot at a 50% day today.
It's re-comforting to see this stock up, finally. It is another evidence that fundamental analysis may take its time, but it works. It may take months or even years but true value always comes up.
Excellent timing on this one David, I 'm glad that IB allowed to buy this one...it seems a possible 4$ stock in less that two years time.
One thing, I know that's nothing to do with this stock, but have you ever considered to buy stocks in Europe too? Since most of the brokers have the possibility to trade in several stock exchanges, it could be a good challenge....just a thought ;D
D.
P.S. - Last weekend I passed near Ericeira with my family, we went to Santa Cruz, Festa da Sapateira, very nice indeed.
QuoteExcellent timing on this one David, I 'm glad that IB allowed to buy this one...it seems a possible 4$ stock in less that two years time.
Thanks Draccul, unfortunately I had the ability to turn a great 12% advance day into a disappointment, when I wrote the following:
QuoteIf it isn't one, it's the other, ETLT.OB has a good shot at a 50% day today.
I need to improve on managing expectations.
QuoteOne thing, I know that's nothing to do with this stock, but have you ever considered to buy stocks in Europe too? Since most of the brokers have the possibility to trade in several stock exchanges, it could be a good challenge....just a thought ;D
Not really, because I don't have Bloomberg or Reuters, and European stocks don't have abundant financial information on the internet ... Europe lacks leadership and the most interesting stocks trade in the US exchanges, not Europe. There should be an European Accounting standard (like GAAP in the US) and just two or three stock exchanges, not 50 or so like we have today. It's a mess, there's still a lot to do in Europe ...
QuoteP.S. - Last weekend I passed near Ericeira with my family, we went to Santa Cruz, Festa da Sapateira, very nice indeed.
Yeah, sea food here is great, you need to go to my Restaurant ("Cesar") in Ericeira ;D
ETLT.OB had a nice shot on Friday, I hope this is the catalyst for something bigger. ETLT.OB is so undervalued it is mindblogging (am I spelling this right? You know what I mean ...), I'm even afraid of looking into future possibilities for the company in terms of EPS and share price increases.
I'll just hold and forget about ETLT.OB while it is below $2, it just doesn't make any sense at the current prices.
As you can read on the 2nd quarter earnings release from ETLT.OB:
• Eternal Technologies Announces Second Quarter Report (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070813/20070813006136.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon, Aug 13)
... Eternal's management was crying out loud "Hey, we're very undervalued, look at us here, hey ...":
«As of June 30, 2007, the company had $41,961,172 of cash and certificates of deposit or $.89 per share in cash and certificates of deposit. In addition, as of June 30, 2007 its book value exceeded $1.34 per share. As of June 30, 2007, the company also had $45,015,627 of working capital or nearly $.96 per share while total indebtedness was only $2,318,574, the company's total assets as of June 30, 2007 were $65,546,840.»
The market initially didn't react much ... if it were some months ago I would think: "why isn't the market responding to this? It must know something I don't". Now, with more experience, I believe the market is, at times, very inefficient in the way it prices stocks over the short term. Fortunately, over the long term, value always comes up.
That is what is happening now in ETLT.OB, but as I've said, below $2 the company's valuation is a joke, I want to stop laughing and look at Eternal's future in a more constructive way, but I'll wait for $2 before doing that.
I'll continue holding ETLT.OB for the long term.
ETLT.OB closed back below $0.74 ??? It has been really difficult to get some bullish traction in this stock ... but it doesn't fall by much either. It is still asleep. Perhaps we'll need very powerful earnings news to make it shine, and I think that's coming. Looking at ETLT's profile, I can't explain why the stock is trading at 4 or 5 times earnings:
«Eternal is a major agricultural genetics and biopharmaceutical R&D firm operating in China with the support of the Chinese Government. Eternal's animal breeding division has a strong asset base, cash position and net income. Eternal has become one of China's leading institutions for biopharmaceutical and biotech research, pure breed cultivation and breed stock production. The Company has secured a key market niche by commercializing gene engineering technologies and providing superior breeding stock, allowing China's citizens the ability to improve their living standards. With the world's largest population, a double-digit national growth rate and entry into the WTO, Eternal Technologies has a playing field set for tremendous opportunity. As a prominent player in the agricultural genetics industry, cash in the bank and an untapped market, Eternal has the potential to become a major player in China's national growth.»
I'll keep holding and studying ETLT.OB, it is a case study for me. One of two things must happen: 1) The stock rises more closer to its intrinsic value or else 2) I find a valid fundamental explanation to why it is so undervalued in terms of its earnings multiple.
While none of these two things happen I'll continue holding ETLT.OB.
I had an order in to double my position here this morning at .74 but it didnt get filled. Oh well, did double it at .8 when seeing this massive Gspot breakout in progress. This Gspot breakout is more powerful that what is happening in CHME because the volume looks to exceed the prior spike. Nice call David! ;D
QuoteThis Gspot breakout is more powerful that what is happening in CHME because the volume looks to exceed the prior spike. Nice call David! ;D
Thanks Tokyo :)
But, if instead of thinking in technical terms you think in fundamental terms, the lower the volume in CHME.OB the better, because it means there aren't many warrants being converted into shares and sold at current prices. That means warrant holders are not willing to sell in this area ;)
Quote from: David Randolph on October 10, 2007, 03:34:00 PM
QuoteThis Gspot breakout is more powerful that what is happening in CHME because the volume looks to exceed the prior spike. Nice call David! ;D
Thanks Tokyo :)
But, if instead of thinking in technical terms you think in fundamental terms, the lower the volume in CHME.OB the better, because it means there aren't many warrants being converted into shares and sold at current prices. That means warrant holders are not willing to sell in this area ;)
Hmm, didnt think of it that way. In any case, my multiple applauds to you for today, I put on fairly sizeable positions in ETLT, SDTH, and CHME, as well as CHLN and some others recently too. Today was probably the best single day I have had this year as a result! Still holding CIMT, GSB, GIGM and PFSW as well.
I saw in the other thread that you wont be replacing the Fire stocks, but as you find more undervalued stocks, will you then just replace the main portfolio with those on a case by case basis? This is the first time I have seen the Main fully invested in quite awhile, so just curious where it goes from here.
QuoteToday was probably the best single day I have had this year as a result!
It was too good, it seems. Some balancing yesterday, no stock goes up 10% plus everyday, and if it does, it probably isn't sustainable. It's better to go like this, shaking weak hands along the way.
Even if ETLT.OB and other Chinese stocks I have were rising just because of "China's bubble motives", I've seen several bubbles develop in my life, and it always works like this ... in the beginning there are lots of doubts and analysts saying stocks are overvalued, so we get two steps forwards and one back, or a 20% advance day followed by a 10% pullback. There are going to be four or five meaningful pullbacks as stocks push higher and higher, and people keep getting pushed aside of the spectacular rise. At some point in the parabolic ascension, people decide that this time, they won't be shaken out by any pullback, they will hold for the long term, because they're so tired of missing the biggest part of the upside move ... that's when the REAL decline comes, one that usually takes the bubble stocks down below where everything started, that is, down more than 90%.
But, even though market participants see it this way, ETLT.OB has nothing to do with this story. ETLT.OB is deeply undervalued and below $2 is an insult. I shouldn't be talking to anybody insulting me, ETLT.OB is not to be talked under $2. But since it is my job to talk, I'll do it. Just kidding here ;D
QuoteI saw in the other thread that you wont be replacing the Fire stocks, but as you find more undervalued stocks, will you then just replace the main portfolio with those on a case by case basis? This is the first time I have seen the Main fully invested in quite awhile, so just curious where it goes from here.
Well, eventually I believe my stocks will go from undervalued to overvalued and I'll take profits in them and buy other stocks. But I'll hold these 15 until they give me what I see they should give, or until my view of the situation changes.
I'll keep holding ETLT.OB.
Quote from: David Randolph on October 12, 2007, 09:14:52 AM
QuoteToday was probably the best single day I have had this year as a result!
It was too good, it seems. Some balancing yesterday, no stock goes up 10% plus everyday, and if it does, it probably isn't sustainable. It's better to go like this, shaking weak hands along the way.
Even if ETLT.OB and other Chinese stocks I have were rising just because of "China's bubble motives", I've seen several bubbles develop in my life, and it always works like this ... in the beginning there are lots of doubts and analysts saying stocks are overvalued, so we get two steps forwards and one back, or a 20% advance day followed by a 10% pullback. There are going to be four or five meaningful pullbacks as stocks push higher and higher, and people keep getting pushed aside of the spectacular rise. At some point in the parabolic ascension, people decide that this time, they won't be shaken out by any pullback, they will hold for the long term, because they're so tired of missing the biggest part of the upside move ... that's when the REAL decline comes, one that usually takes the bubble stocks down below where everything started, that is, down more than 90%.
But, even though market participants see it this way, ETLT.OB has nothing to d with this story. ETLT.OB is deeply undervalued and below $2 is an insult. I shouldn't be talking to anybody insulting me, ETLT.OB is not to be talked under $2. But since it is my job to talk, I'll do it. Just kidding here ;D
QuoteI saw in the other thread that you wont be replacing the Fire stocks, but as you find more undervalued stocks, will you then just replace the main portfolio with those on a case by case basis? This is the first time I have seen the Main fully invested in quite awhile, so just curious where it goes from here.
Well, eventually I believe my stocks will go from undervalued to overvalued and I'll take profits in them and buy other stocks. But I'll hold these 15 until they give me what I see they should give, or until my view of the situation changes.
I'll keep holding ETLT.OB.
Great, thanks for those answers, I like the direction of the new portfolio now that I understand it. And yes, it took some screaming and kicking from many of us purely short term traders.
So that being said, thanks again, and applaud. Thats 1000 well deserved applauds right there, may we be lucky enough to have your service available for 1000 more! ;D :D ;) :)
Adding ETLT in my portfolio, the technicals are too good to pass on.
I started shopping chinese stocks last trading day of this week ... thanks David. ;)
ETLT is showing a nice candlestick today, appetizer for my entry... ;)
QuoteGreat, thanks for those answers, I like the direction of the new portfolio now that I understand it. And yes, it took some screaming and kicking from many of us purely short term traders.
So that being said, thanks again, and applaud. Thats 1000 well deserved applauds right there, may we be lucky enough to have your service available for 1000 more! ;D :D ;) :)
Yeah, sure Tokyo, I'm here for the long term :) Thanks.
Quote from: Terliso on October 12, 2007, 11:26:48 AM
Adding ETLT in my portfolio, the technicals are too good to pass on.
I started shopping chinese stocks last trading day of this week ... thanks David. ;)
Quote from: Terliso on October 12, 2007, 11:37:42 AM
ETLT is showing a nice candlestick today, appetizer for my entry... ;)
You're welcome Terliso :)
It looks like investors decided to stop insulting ETLT's management and stock and instead start doing some business with them. I'm looking at about $0.15 EPS in 2007, so the stock is trading at 5.9 times earnings. It should be triple that.
I'll continue holding ETLT.OB with strong hands.
This is interesting:
Five Tasks Finished by Chairman in U.S (http://www.eternaltechs.com/ShowNews.asp?id=72)
«Fifthly, the shareholder meeting has gone into the preparation. The time and place of the shareholder meeting will be fixed soon, not later than early November.»
We'll probably hear something from ETLT's management on this issue soon. I see that ETLT's managers perhaps write and speak English even worse than I do, but there's no doubt their company is deeply undervalued. If they start delivering those 10-Q's and 10-K's in a timely manner and keep growing the company, undoubtedly the stock price will adjust to reflect its true value.
I'll continue holding ETLT.OB for the long term.
ETLT has a problem at $0.9, because every time the company makes an acquisition (and it made several), it issues some shares (not a lot) to fund part of the acquisition cost and always tells people the shares are worth $0.9 each.
Take the latest two acquisitions, as an example:
• Eternal Technologies Group, Inc. (OTC BB: ETLT) Purchase Price Reduced on the Two Recent Acquisitions (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070917/20070917005398.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon, Sep 17)
«For the acquisition of the 30% equity interest in the Mango farm, the company will pay 70% in cash (US$4,400,000) and 30% in its common stock (2.3 million shares, US$0.90/share). For the acquisition of the 30% equity interest in the Lychee farm, the company will pay 70% in cash (US$4,800,000) and 30% in its common stock (2.64 million shares, US$0.90/share). Both acquisitions will be accretive to earnings in 2008.»
So we now have these guys probably selling 4.94 million shares around $0.9, because that's what they think they're worth, it is their expectation for their value.
This selling pressure is what is keeping ETLT so undervalued. For the next update I'll check how many more shares are probable being sold in the $0.9 area.
The good news is that when ETLT closes above $0.9 for two or three consecutive days, and I'm sure sooner or later it will happen, the stock will probably shoot towards $2 very fast.
I'll keep holding ETLT for the long term.
QuoteSo we now have these guys probably selling 4.94 million shares around $0.9, because that's what they think they're worth, it is their expectation for their value.
I've re-read ETLT's 10-Q form filed with the SEC and I don't see any other shares for sale at $0.9, other than the 4.94 million we talked yesterday. So, less than $5 M in volume around $0.9 will probably make ETLT.OB break it on the upside and move the stock sharply higher. I believe it is just a matter of time before that happens and I'll continue holding ETLT.OB for the long term.
ETLT.OB trades at 5 times earnings, there's nothing else to do but to keep holding and waiting for this inefficiency to be corrected. I believe it is a matter of crossing the $0.9 all important barrier. If we do that, as I'm sure with time we'll do, the stock will move 100% to the upside in, say, a couple of months. That's how micro cap stocks usually move.
I'll continue holding ETLT.OB for the long term.
Dilution ? :-\
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5227735
Quote from: babouk on October 24, 2007, 06:18:23 AM
Dilution ? :-\
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5227735
Yes, they're distributing newly issued shares to most of their 68 full time employees, as you can read at page 12 of that prospectus. But the big chunk of the 2.5 million shares will go to the Chairman of the Board, Mr. Jijun Wu, with 1,780,000 shares. Strangely it appears that after this incentive he'll be the owner of just 1,836,000 shares, so he almost didn't have any before this offering.
I wonder who owns the big majority of the ...
«As of October 1, 2007, there were 47,073,579 shares of our common stock outstanding.»
... 47 million shares outstanding, that is, who owns ETLT.OB?
Anyway, 2.5 million more added to 47 million represents just 5.3% dilution, which isn't a big deal. ETLT.OB should be at $2.5 instead of $2.63, something like that ;D
I'll keep holding ETLT.OB for the long term.
ETLT's reaction to that form S-8 announcing new 2.5 million shares issued wasn't bad ... my take is there isn't much supply in this area, and the real fight is to be made around $0.9. When we get to close significantly above $0.9 I think we'll run up towards $2 pretty quickly.
The issue is that ETLT made acquisitions and used shares, valued at $0.9, to pay for a part of those acquisitions. Now, the people who sold their businesses want cash, not shares, so they're selling their shares at $0.9, creating supply pressure in that area.
But the company's value is at least $2, according to my fundamental analysis, so we just need patience to profit. I'll keep holding ETLT.OB for the long term.
At least ETLT.OB has been holding $0.74 on a closing basis. The stock is trading at $0.74/$0.11 = 6.7 times 2006 earnings. I think this is cheap and that there will be EPS growth in 2008 so I'll keep holding ETLT.OB for the long term.
QuoteAt least ETLT.OB has been holding $0.74 on a closing basis.
Not anymore :-\
QuoteThe stock is trading at $0.74/$0.11 = 6.7 times 2006 earnings.
Will ETLT.OB be my teacher in the "knowing how to divide two numbers isn't enough to profit over the long term» lesson?
I guess a low Price Earnings Ratio isn't enough. There also has to be growth, or a promise of it ... some kind of catalyst.
Or else, yesterday's close at $0.725 was just "short term technical noise". I think this is the most likely case. The next few days will bring us the answer and I'll keep on holding ETLT.OB.
I would like to see Q3 results before buying in. Maybe there are others on the sideline like me, just taking a wait-and-see approach.
I wasn't as comfortable with ETLT as I was with, say ASTI or SDTH, so I decided to wait for the earnings as well.
Quote from: buddjas1 on October 30, 2007, 09:26:37 AM
I would like to see Q3 results before buying in. Maybe there are others on the sideline like me, just taking a wait-and-see approach.
Yes, maybe that's the cause for the lack of follow through.
Quote from: berloga on October 30, 2007, 09:57:27 AM
I wasn't as comfortable with ETLT as I was with, say ASTI or SDTH, so I decided to wait for the earnings as well.
Very different companies and stories. I hope 3rd quarter earnings convince people to get in this very undervalued stock.
QuoteOr else, yesterday's close at $0.725 was just "short term technical noise". I think this is the most likely case. The next few days will bring us the answer and I'll keep on holding ETLT.OB.
It looks like that was it, "short term technical noise". This happens so often, a slight cut of an important technical level before the most likely move indeed happens. Just shaking the tree a little bit, don't want the weak hands on board.
ETLT's fight is to be made around the $0.9 level and I'm sure that over the long term bulls will win, because value is too compelling at current levels.
I'll keep holding ETLT.OB for the long term.
Down 5.8% yesterday, back below $0.74. Doesn't matter, I'll keep holding for the long term.
ETLT.OB needs a fresh new catalyst to reestablish the fight at $0.9. Probably this will be provided by the 3rd quarter earnings release. If enough volume is achieved at $0.9 and the stock is able to close significantly above this level, I think it will move towards $2 pretty sharply.
I'll keep holding ETLT.OB for the long term, despite the short term weakness.
Because of a technical issue on David's internet connection he was not able to publish this update.
The instructions for this position is: HOLD
Quote from: Ramsburg on November 06, 2007, 08:23:35 AM
Because of a technical issue on David's internet connection he was not able to publish this update.
The instructions for this position is: HOLD
Yes, tough day yesterday. Sapo ADSL was able to fix the problem today around 10 AM (Lisbon time), it is working fine now.
As for ETLT.OB, I'm disappointed to see the stock back to my buying price of $0.7. I don't understand why the very attractive valuation doesn't attract more buyers, but I'll wait for Q3 earnings before taking any possible action.
I'm going to say it again: ETLT.OB might be my teacher on the "low P/E doesn't always mean a bargain" lesson. It can also be a liberator, because if finding good picks required just simple math I would have to find something more interesting to do with my life. Fortunately it isn't as easy and truly understanding businesses and their prospects seem to be the key for long term and sustainable success in the stock market. Not just math, but art.
Anyway, I'll keep holding ETLT.OB some more time, I want to see what we get in the Q3 earnings release, which hopefully will be on schedule, that is, on or before November 15.
Arrggghhh, here comes a punch in the stomach :P
ETLT.OB not even had the courage or decency to issue a press release, at least showing a strategy or expectations for the future. It released 3rd quarter earnings just through an SEC 10-Q form (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096662/000102670007000070/fm10qsb_93007.htm), and they were bad:
- Revenue declined 44% from Q3 2006;
- EPS still was $0.04, making the stock "cheap" from an EPS multiple perspective, but with this sharp revenue decline I distrust the quality of these earnings;
- They still claim to have $45.6 M in cash (while the market cap is $31 M ???), the problem is:
«The Company has cash and bank balances of $45,634,503 which is more than sufficient to cover its PRC operations. However, if the Company is to expand outside the PRC, as it anticipates doing, or pay its non-PRC obligations, it will have to sell additional shares of its stock or borrow funds from third parties. Unless it is able to either borrow funds or sell additional shares, it will have insufficient resources to carry out its business objectives outside the PRC for the next twelve (12) months.»
Why can't ETLT.OB convert its Remingbi currency into USD or Euros? Everybody does it. This is pretty weird, I don't know what to think of it. This issue explains why ETLT.OB trades "below cash". The market doesn't believe they actually have the money.
Once I've read a study showing low P/E stocks beat high P/E stocks over the long term. But the "below 5" earnings multiple group also didn't do well.
ETLT.OB taught me that a super low earnings multiple, say, below 7, isn't good, it is actually an alarm bell. If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
I need to expand my fundamental analysis understanding and go beyond an earnings multiple comparison analysis. The earnings multiple is just a part, perhaps a small part, of understanding long term investments in stocks. I already knew this, but I got more evidence here.
Unfortunately, every lesson the stock market teaches me has a price. The tutor is presenting the bill, and I'll pay it right away, by selling ETLT.OB today for a loss.
The Trading Plan for ETLT.OB is:
SELL.
David,
Any suggestions? I was not filled at my .61 price and now it has dropped even further. My guess is the 3SOF swing made it drop so quickly. Any reason to hold to get to my mental price of at least .61 or let it go ?
It seems every one of these .ob stocks we go after eventually fall like a rock, well maybe AMRE.ob did ok! ;D
thanks, Brad
Quote from: basanlas on November 09, 2007, 09:45:54 AM
David,
Any suggestions? I was not filled at my .61 price and now it has dropped even further. My guess is the 3SOF swing made it drop so quickly. Any reason to hold to get to my mental price of at least .61 or let it go ?
It seems every one of these .ob stocks we go after eventually fall like a rock, well maybe AMRE.ob did ok! ;D
thanks, Brad
No suggestions on short term timing Brad, sorry. Good luck.
You're right, OTCBB's have too many tricks ... can't trust them, unless they're about to move to the AMEX or Nasdaq, like GSB did. realcoolhead was right on this, as usual.
David,
I think that OTCBB stocks are to avoid: they can run fast, but too easily can destroy the money we hardly earn :-)
cheers,
tera
David, I am going to MARK THESE WORDS for you this time! >:D
Well, we all live to learn, don't we?
Quote from: David Randolph on November 09, 2007, 10:00:28 AM
You're right, OTCBB's have too many tricks ... can't trust them, unless they're about to move to the AMEX or Nasdaq, like GSB did. realcoolhead was right on this, as usual.
I think lessons learned from ETLT will be lost if CHME and UTVG both .OB are in the portfolio. Its time that either we have a separate portfolio for them or not have them at all. I hope David will do something about it.
The fact that CHME is at -17.53 UTVG at -11.5 would you say these two in particular are also not reliable not because of their fundamentals but simply by nature of the beast (.ob)?
Do you guys think these would come back up to at least replace both the -17+ and -11+ percentages lost respectably?
I don't have large positions on these anyway but am concerned more now that I am reading this sentiment from you guys. Specially since I was not filled on my ETLT sell order and this Friday I bought a small position on CHME on the dip thinking this should come back up pretty strong based on the valuation that David has shared with us on this one.
I am not sure and UTVG and CHME may be multi beggars. For sure we had similar projections for .pk but lessons were learned and .pk were for ever banished from the Main. Its time that main should not have .OB in the main or we need to have different portfolio for them.
Quote from: stocky on November 10, 2007, 09:22:30 PM
I am not sure and UTVG and CHME may be multi beggars. For sure we had similar projections for .pk but lessons were learned and .pk were for ever banished from the Main. Its time that main should not have .OB in the main or we need to have different portfolio for them.
I think more profit has been made than has been lost on 3SOF trading .OB stocks, so eliminatinting them outright might be too harsh a solution.
I lost a good chunk of change on ETLT.OB recently yet still I say this as I have made more than I have lost on .OB stocks. I guess what we cant know makes sense is the long term investment in .OB stocks. Certainly the profits I am talking about were from trading them, not buy and hold. Yet as we have observed, there are examples where that woudl have been a great strategy, like AOBO.OB = AOB. So in the end I will gladly defer to David's judgement on the remaining .OB stocks and any others he decided to add.
When AOBO.OB became AOB, or when we got GSB , these are the case of .OB graduating to Amex. Now that is a fundamental change and once they are Amex listed, things changes. I still think that should be covered but the risk profile suggest to be in a different portfolio. Its for some very good reason that these stocks are traded as .OB. Also the main portfolio is not a trading but a 3 yr buy and hold.
David or anyone else
I know that the experience on ETLT was poor but looking at it now, its seems the valuation is totally absurd. It pulled in EPS of 14.1 c close to what David said 6 months ago[ d SAID 15C AS A GUESS ]
It could be at 10 c for Q1 based on subsequent events alone....ie stuff that went on between end of 2007 and release of results last week ...the valuation at 1.40 per share and some brilliant associated co investmments makes this a potential killer stock
any views?
LJ8
This really requires a re think
Take a look at the prelim results for Q1 2008 [which they have never reported in the past].
On their website under reports....up 72% I think and thats excluding so many other income revenues in Q1
Amazing..s'be about 7-8 c per share for the first Q. Just came out today and not posted to any news wires etc. See Yahoo mess board for details.
http://www.eternaltechs.com/news.asp