Hello :)
Yesterday mbaugh brought our attention to SEED (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=10288.msg106760#msg106760), BigSully1 bought it and the stock was up 82% on the session :o (counting with extended hours trading). I also think BigSully's suggestion of having, in this message board, a thread to discuss Chinese, Indian and other emerging market stocks traded in the US exchanges is a good idea. But, instead of just Chinese or Indian, why not all stocks that 3 SOF subscribers have an interest on?
So, I'll start this new thread for you to talk about your stocks, stocks that you own or have an interest on but are not Main Portfolio's holdings. Or stocks where you're making or losing a lot of money and would like to share the story. Or stocks that just took off, or just had some relevant news item. I think this could be useful for us to find attractive new picks, like mbaugh did.
This is different from the Analysis on Demand thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=10288.0), where you're seeking for my analysis. I'll read all your posts, but I'll only write occasionally on this thread.
Now you have this place to write about Your Stocks, I hope you use it and enjoy it :)
good morning David!
I think this is an excellent idea.
here is my story on one. SHRP last year I bought half my position at 9.50/share it went up to around 11/share than it came back down to 10.25/share. I then bought the other half of my position. I have followed this chart for the past 11years. but don't miss understand I did not know 1/5 of what I have learned this year alone in your forum for which I am very greatful.
so I sold SHRP at just under 16/share. I have always seen this stok do super excellent on the fourth quarter so that is the only time that I have bought it. I made such a bundle I bought a minivan cash. why a minivan well we are four and were already planning on having a third baby. I was elated about SHRP image well this year I tried to do the same thing but it did not do the usual run up on the fourh quarter so I sold it without a major gain.
I do wonder if SHRP now that it has gone to under 4/share if it would come back to at least around 10/share this next spring.
any thoughts any one?
Thanks.
David, just want to drop a note after reading your "story": enjoy the day off and take good care of your wife and kids. After all, they are the most important in your life, everything else, money, car, house ... they are just materials >:D.
Also like to thank you again for the wonderful job you have done! :o
After watching SEED go up all day yesterday, I was looking to get into FEED.
But Ameritrade wouldn't let me buy into FEED. Anyone else have this problem with FEED >:(
FEED's up 28% pre-market >:(
David, sorry to hear about your misfortune earlier. Just remember,this too shall pass. As long as you are all safe and sound,that's the important thing.
David, regret your experience but admire your intuition and I'm very glad
your family is safe - that's the most important part of the story.
On the other hand we just discovered how you choose your stocks while
you tell us all about fundamentals and a piece of technicals >:D
Cheer up we all live in a troubled world mixing crime, terror & drugs which
has left us without a safe haven even in small villages.
Have to live with that.
Solve your personal problems, love your family and get back to work, which
we all appreciate it. Lets hope you have no further nightmares, but a lot of
good intuitions to find outstanding fundamentals ;D ;D
Big hug for you & kids from this southern part of the world. Dare not send same to your wife
but shake her hand on my behalf. LOL :D :D :D
Dear brothers & sisters,
Here is a stock that has been good to me. It has big swings. It is a great company. Closed a little high today, maybe wait for a pullback.
DRYS
Business Description: DryShips, Inc. engages in the ownership and operation of drybulk carriers worldwide. The company's fleet carries various drybulk commodities, including coal, iron ore, and grains, bauxite, phosphate, fertilizers, and steel products.
Industry: Shipping
Economic Sector: Transportation
Address: 80 Kifissias Avenue, Amaroussion 15125 Athens, Greece
Have fun and happy trading.
Others in this sector that are good too. EXM, DSX, PRGN
;D
I picked up some shares of GEOI today.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071018/aqth037.html?.v=34
"This acquisition is immediately accretive and doubles the size of the Company in terms of reserves, production, revenues and cash flow. Importantly, it can be operated without additional staffing. Further, the acquisition has been financed entirely with reasonable levels of senior secured debt under our increased Facility, at favorable interest rates. We have also entered into commodity price hedges to take advantage of high oil prices and to negotiate favorable financing terms. We expect to sell or trade certain properties to reduce debt, streamline operations and to focus our personnel on the upside in our portfolio and generate additional opportunities for growth."
Chart is bullish as can be.
Don't let the last 10Q's EPS fool you. The number was drastically effected by a one-time take over of income tax (from a merger) and one-time G&A fees from the merger.
I see an easy double, short term.
Has anyone checked out this red-hot IPO? VMW
VMware, Inc.
3401 Hillview Avenue
Palo Alto, CA 94304
United States - Map
Phone: 650-475-5000
Fax: 650-475-5005
Web Site: http://www.vmware.com
DETAILS
Index Membership: N/A
Sector: Technology
Industry: Business Software & Services
Full Time Employees: 3,000
BUSINESS SUMMARY
VMware, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide virtualization solutions worldwide. Its virtualization solutions separate the operating system and application software from the underlying hardware to achieve improvements in efficiency, availability, flexibility, and manageability. The company's solutions enable organizations to aggregate multiple servers, storage infrastructure, and networks together into shared pools of capacity that can be allocated to applications as needed. It offers a portfolio of products that spans the consumer desktop to enterprise data center, including virtualization platforms, virtual infrastructure automation, and virtual infrastructure management. The company's virtualization platforms include a hypervisor for system partitioning that provides the capability to run multiple operating systems simultaneously on the same physical machine. Its platforms include entry-level products for the desktop and server, and desktop and server platforms. The company's virtual infrastructure automation products utilize its virtualization platforms to automate system infrastructure services, such as resource management, availability, mobility, and security. These products improve the runtime availability and reliability of the virtual machines. Its virtual infrastructure management products automate the interaction between various information technology (IT) constituencies and the virtual infrastructure for a specific set of point solutions. These solutions range from capacity sizing and assessment to development lab management. VMware's suite of virtualization solutions addresses a range of complex IT problems, including infrastructure optimization, business continuity, software lifecycle management, and desktop management. VMware, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California. VMware, Inc. is a subsidiary of EMC Corp.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VMW&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96203656555
Hugely overvalued? or not?. CSCO, INTC and even Fidelity have huge stakes in this IPO. Kinda wish David would take a look, if for nothing else, the very interesting technology.
Hey BigSully1,
I guess you know they reported after the bell today.
Here is a small piece of report.
"VMware Inc. on Wednesday posted a third-quarter profit that more than tripled from a year ago as the virtualization technology developer delivered its first earnings report since becoming a publicly traded company in August."
EMC reports before the bell Thursday, Oct. 25th.
I think EMC will pop the same. Just my guess. A lot of talk about EMC. I do not own EMC or VMW.
I hope you held shares and enjoyed the pop today! Good pick.
Hello Houlihan!
I don't have any VMW. Just thought it a really interesting IPO screamer. Even with the big beat, I'm not convinced it can continue to support that kind of valuation though. What does everyone else think?
Here's one that I do own and would really like David to take a look, he might even be very interested. . Axsys Technologies - AXYS. I started a thread on it awhile back , but it doesn't seem to generate any interest there. I had a question about a cup n handle that never got answered there, maybe someone here can answer it.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=10317.0
I think this latest ER (after the close today) should be more than enough to propel the stock past the late 2000 and alltime high. (It's already very close anyway.)
Axsys Technologies Announces 34 Percent Revenue Growth and 54 Percent Net Income Growth in Third Quarter
Wednesday October 24, 4:10 pm ET
Company Increases 2007 Guidance and Establishes 2008 Guidance
ROCKY HILL, Conn., Oct. 24, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Axsys Technologies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:AXYS - News), a global leader in the design and development of high-performance surveillance cameras, imaging systems and related motion control technologies, today announced financial results for the quarter ended September 29, 2007.
ADVERTISEMENT
During the third quarter, Axsys generated revenues of $45.2 million, compared to $33.6 million in the third quarter of 2006. Net income was $4.1 million or $0.37 per diluted share on a consolidated basis, up from $2.7 million or $0.25 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2006.
Previously, the company announced its intention to sell the Distributed Products Group, and consequently this business has been reclassified as a discontinued operation in the third quarter and prior periods. The discontinued operations contributed income of $0.4 million, or $0.03 diluted earnings per share in the third quarter, compared to $0.2 million, or $0.02 per share in the third quarter of 2006.
Third Quarter Financial Highlights from Continuing Operations
Period comparisons reference fiscal third quarter 2006.
* Sales increased 34% to a record $45.2 million;
* Gross margin improved to 32.4% from 31.5%;
* Operating margin improved to 13.5% from 11.7%;
* Income increased 52% to $3.8 million;
* Diluted earnings per share increased to $0.34 from $0.23;
* Backlog increased to a record $138 million, representing a 38%
increase compared to the end of the third quarter of 2006, and a
9% increase over the previous quarter.
The company continued to experience strong demand for surveillance cameras, lenses, and stabilized gimbal systems. Cineflex Camera Systems, purchased in April 2007, generated revenues of $6.5 million during the third quarter.
``Axsys' impressive growth is an indication of our company's increasingly enviable market position,'' said Stephen W. Bershad, Chairman and CEO of Axsys Technologies. ``The sales from our newly acquired stabilized camera systems business exceeded expectations, and the rest of our Optical Systems Group achieved 15% revenue growth during the quarter. Importantly, our order backlog also continued a strong upward trend with the addition of $57 million in new bookings during the quarter. With this added visibility, we are comfortable increasing our 2007 financial guidance.''
Fiscal 2007 Earnings Guidance Revision
Axsys increased its full-year 2007 guidance for continuing operations as follows:
* Sales are expected to be in the range of $168 million to $171
million, up from the $159 million to $163 million range previously
provided.
* Income is expected to be in the range of $13.7 million to $13.9
million, up from the previous guidance of $12.5 million to $12.8
million.
* Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $1.24
to $1.26, up from the previous guidance of $1.13 to $1.16.
Mr. Bershad continued, ``We are witnessing an increased demand for our products that we believe will be sustained in the coming year. Our escalating booking and shipment rates, clear indicators of this trend, instill optimism about 2008.''
Fiscal 2008 Earnings Guidance
The company announced guidance for continuing operations for full-year 2008:
* Sales are expected to be in the range of $193 million to $197
million.
* Diluted earnings per share are expected to be between $1.57 and
$1.60.
Conference Call
Management will conduct a conference call reviewing the financial results on Thursday, October 25, 2007 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Shareholders, institutional investors and equity research analysts are invited to participate in the call by dialing 1-866-872-5036 and providing the operator with the conference ID# 19290080 to enter the call.
The conference call will be webcast live via the Investor Relations section of the Company's web site at http://www.axsys.com. A replay of the webcast will be available shortly after the conclusion of the call for a period of approximately 90 days.
About Axsys
Axsys Technologies, Inc. is a global leader in the design and development of high-performance surveillance cameras, imaging systems and related motion control technologies, serving the aerospace, defense, and high performance commercial markets. For more information, visit http://www.axsys.com.
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. One can identify these forward-looking statements by the use of the words such as ``expect,'' ``anticipate,'' ``plan,'' ``may,'' ``will,'' ``estimate'' or other similar expressions. Because such statements apply to future events, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially. Important factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially, are described in Axsys' reports on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including without limitation: changes in the U.S. federal government spending priorities; the Company's ability to compete in the industries in which it operates, including the introduction of competing products or technologies by other companies and/or pricing pressures from competitors and/or customers; the potential for the Company's backlog to be reduced or cancelled; the Company's ability to implement its acquisition strategy and integrate its acquired companies successfully, including the recent acquisition of Cineflex; the Company's ability to successfully complete the planned sale of the Distributed Products business; the Company's ability to manage costs under the Company's fixed-price contracts effectively; and changes in general economic and business conditions. These statements reflect the Company's current beliefs and are based upon information currently available to the Company. Be advised that developments subsequent to this release are likely to cause these statements to become outdated with the passage of time, and we specifically disclaim any obligation to update these statements.
AXSYS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Consolidated Statements of Operations
(Dollars in thousands, except share and per share data - Unaudited)
For the Three Months Ended For the Nine Months Ended
-------------------------- --------------------------
September 29, September 30, September 29, September 30,
2007 2006 2007 2006
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Sales $ 45,218 $ 33,640 $ 123,712 $ 96,170
Cost of sales 30,560 23,054 83,910 65,534
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Gross profit 14,658 10,586 39,802 30,636
Selling,
general and
administrative
expenses 7,131 5,399 18,720 16,266
Research,
development
and
engineering
expenses 1,436 1,261 4,383 3,380
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Operating
income 6,091 3,926 16,699 10,990
Interest
expense (191) (10) (463) (72)
Interest
income 55 70 174 221
Other income
(expense), net 17 (7) (235) 25
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
5,972 3,979 16,175 11,164
Income from
continuing
operations
before income
taxes
Provision for
income taxes 2,216 1,510 6,135 4,235
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Income from
continuing
operations 3,756 2,469 10,040 6,929
Income from
discontinued
operations,
net of tax 383 225 929 768
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Net income $ 4,139 $ 2,694 $ 10,969 $ 7,697
============ ============ ============ ============
BASIC EARNINGS
PER SHARE:
Continuing
operations $ 0.35 $ 0.23 $ 0.94 $ 0.65
Discontinued
operations 0.04 0.02 0.09 0.07
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Total $ 0.39 $ 0.25 $ 1.03 $ 0.72
============ ============ ============ ============
Weighted-
average basic
common shares
outstanding 10,722,393 10,630,136 10,688,869 10,625,153
DILUTED
EARNINGS
PER SHARE:
Continuing
operations $ 0.34 $ 0.23 $ 0.91 $ 0.64
Discontinued
operations 0.03 0.02 0.08 0.07
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Total $ 0.37 $ 0.25 $ 0.99 $ 0.71
============ ============ ============ ============
Weighted-
average
diluted
common
shares
outstanding 11,140,374 10,883,385 11,031,234 10,877,734
AXSYS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(Dollars in thousands)
September 29, December 31,
2007 2006
(Unaudited) (Audited)
------------ ------------
ASSETS
CURRENT ASSETS:
Cash and cash equivalents $ 5,176 $ 6,044
Accounts receivable - net 20,270 17,298
Inventories - net 48,718 35,853
Assets held-for-sale 14,416 15,764
Income taxes - deferred 3,556 2,405
Prepaid expenses 941 829
Other current assets 379 368
------------ ------------
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 93,456 78,561
PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT - net 16,230 22,393
INTANGIBLE ASSETS - net 12,588 9,507
GOODWILL 82,649 60,791
OTHER ASSETS 1,574 1,093
------------ ------------
TOTAL ASSETS $ 206,497 $ 172,345
============ ============
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
CURRENT LIABILITIES:
Line of credit $ 10,000 $ --
Accounts payable 11,307 7,550
Accrued expenses and other current
liabilities 20,978 18,218
Liabilities held-for-sale 2,648 3,430
Deferred income 10,064 6,088
------------ ------------
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 54,997 35,286
OTHER LONG-TERM LIABILITIES 8,243 5,871
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY:
Common stock 107 106
Capital in excess of par 101,143 99,111
Retained earnings 42,007 31,977
Treasury stock -- (6)
------------ ------------
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 143,257 131,188
------------ ------------
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS'
EQUITY $ 206,497 $ 172,345
============ ============
Contact:
Axsys Technologies, Inc.
David A. Almeida, Chief Financial Officer
(860) 257-0200
Geoffrey Ling, Director of Investor Relations
(860) 594-5773
[email protected]
Here's some others that I'm looking at now with interest. All had ER's today. DAIO, EXTR, PNSN, CYBE.
I love this sector. Defense and homeland security are not going away. I like that they have expanded overseas in Europe.
AXYS engages in the design and manufacture of precision optical solutions for defense, aerospace, homeland security, and commercial applications primarily in the United States and Europe.
I like NICE too.
NICE-Systems, Ltd. engages in the development, marketing, and support of integrated scalable multimedia digital recording platforms, enhanced software applications, and related professional services. They are in many airports in the US. They are located in Israel.
Revenues have been growing. EPS is increasing. They have ZERO debt. Wish I could say the same! hehe It looks like AXYS is about the same as NICE. Growing revenues, increasing EPS and NO Debt. Well, that was a quick glance. That would be great if David took a look at AXYS.
Thanks for sharing.
I have many stocks in the sector. AXYS hit a record high, but showing some resistance at the $34.00 area (2000) high.
Thank Goodness David Sold WCG a long time ago!! Its halted due to being raided by govt. officals and they say the stock may open at less than $40. I never owned it, I just remembered the symbol being on the main at one point and just saw the news on T.V. I hope no one here owns it.
TRCR had great earnings....I missed it though I got to stingy early this morning with my limit order and it never hit at 16.60 >:(
AXYS looks really good too. :)
Quote from: mbaugh on October 25, 2007, 10:21:18 AM
Thank Goodness David Sold WCG a long time ago!! Its halted due to being raided by govt. officals and they say the stock may open at less than $40. I never owned it, I just remembered the symbol being on the main at one point and just saw the news on T.V. I hope no one here owns it.
Yes, WCG, which seemed to be a rock solid $4 B plus market cap company in the health care sector, down 60% today, due to a police investigation into the company's headquarters.
Quote from: BigSully1 on October 25, 2007, 09:47:45 AM
I have many stocks in the sector. AXYS hit a record high, but showing some resistance at the $34.00 area (2000) high.
Hi BigSully1, tell me something if you may: How many stocks do you normally have, or how many stocks do you think it is appropriate to have at any given time?
I know the value of diversification, but I also know it is much harder to decouple from the general market return if one holds, say, 100 different stocks. I also once read a study showing 15 different holdings is the ideal number for an individual investor portfolio so I stick with that rule.
What are your thoughts on this issue, when you have some time?
Thanks :)
Ramsburg told me we can have as many different holdings as we wish, we just need to decrease the weight of the current holdings to buy more. But I'm still not sure, and have received a couple of messages saying 15 is enough, so I would like to take some more opinions on this diversification/money management issue.
David,
I like the diversification, but you're right - too many stocks weigh the return down. Also, you become more resilient to change because one day one stock counterweighs the other. I have 2 friends, both of whom invested into only 1-3 stocks.
1) MTL - Russian steel and mining company. As you can guess, the friend is Russian. He bought in February at $25, this year. I asked you to look at the stock and you had a positive opinion of it, but we did not go further. It is at $83 now and the friend has added to the position all the way to $50. So, his annual return so far beats mine (which is about 3SOF) by a lot. And he only has 2 more holdings, hence not much to annalyze.
2) A couple of years ago, another friend invested in GSG - gold company, which does not exist now. He anticipated gold prices go up and hence held the stock for more than a year. Made 150%. He put 50% money there. That year, I made about 2% with a lot more headache of following many investments.
My opinion, the investment must be balanced. You got too many - you work hard, but return is so-so. You got few, the risk is much higher. I suggest you stick with 15, but also introduce a "favorability" factor = "projected rate of return" / "risk factor 1 to10". This way, investors with small portfolios, like myself, can choose which stocks to pick from the set.
If you go with more picks, you'll have more work to do and we'll have a harder time to follow and choose. Frankly, stocks with good potential, like CIMT have also higher risk. Compare it with PCU, a copper miner, and you got a clear winner in terms of a selection, i.e. PCU. CIMT may naver materialize, companies like MTL make huge profits today and are growing.
Thanks,
berloga
WOW BigSully1!
AXYS blew your resistance at $34! lol
Tech. it looked ready to roll. Sorry I did not check it closer. A jewel right before my eyes.
Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.
Warren Buffett
You do things when the opportunities come along. I've had periods in my life when I've had a bundle of ideas come along, and I've had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I'll do something. If not, I won't do a damn thing.
Warren Buffett
Some good advice fromm someone who should knows.
Hey here's more. "Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years."
Warren Buffett quote
Similar Quotes.
Add to Chapter...
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
Warren Buffett quote
Similar Quotes.
Add to Chapter...
"Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre."
Warren Buffett
David, I guess I am probably in the minority. The reason I proposed to increase the holding# is based on my risk tolerance level. I think a portfolio with only 15 stocks is too volatile.
In hinder sight, everyone can say that as long as the portfolio grows nicely, volatility is a necessary evil. But as you can recall, several times when the portfolio dropped 3-4% in one day, people began to scream. On two occasions this year you yourself began to doubt the health of this bull market, was it 100% really based on reasonable thinking? Did high volatility never get into the way of your "firm hand"? What I am trying to say is that we are all humans, high volatility will break people's nerve at some point and cause irrational decisions.
Well, I respect your decision and if you stick with 15 stocks I am ok too.
Quote from: David Randolph on October 25, 2007, 11:51:50 AM
Ramsburg told me we can have as many different holdings as we wish, we just need to decrease the weight of the current holdings to buy more. But I'm still not sure, and have received a couple of messages saying 15 is enough, so I would like to take some more opinions on this diversification/money management issue.
"the greater the risk, the greater the reward"
If you want more reward...such as the 30%/yr...volatility just may be something we'll have to stomach. Of course, we could just use the short-term as a 10-15 position holdings while leaving the main with 15+. But I see this as decreasing the 30%/yr potential of the main's portfolio. Looks like David's achieving the 30%/yr goal so why change what's working?
Some of us I know already have to pick and choose the 10 due to lack of funds to diversify.
However...the more positions David invests...the more some of us can choose from.
If you want to maintain that 30%/yr goal...i'd say stick to what you're doing now. At the same time, it would be nice to have more positions to choose from. I guess it's give and take depending on David's goals...30%/yr or more opportunities for us to choose from...
Quote from: David Randolph on October 25, 2007, 11:51:50 AM
Quote from: BigSully1 on October 25, 2007, 09:47:45 AM
I have many stocks in the sector. AXYS hit a record high, but showing some resistance at the $34.00 area (2000) high.
Hi BigSully1, tell me something if you may: How many stocks do you normally have, or how many stocks do you think it is appropriate to have at any given time?
I know the value of diversification, but I also know it is much harder to decouple from the general market return if one holds, say, 100 different stocks. I also once read a study showing 15 different holdings is the ideal number for an individual investor portfolio so I stick with that rule.
What are your thoughts on this issue, when you have some time?
Thanks :)
Ramsburg told me we can have as many different holdings as we wish, we just need to decrease the weight of the current holdings to buy more. But I'm still not sure, and have received a couple of messages saying 15 is enough, so I would like to take some more opinions on this diversification/money management issue.
The number of holdings I keep, most people would find inappropriate, unmanageable, maybe even ridiculous. I probably gain about 25 or so net holdings, meant for LT, on average per year.
I try to keep around 30% of total portfolio in what I consider as intermediate and active and mostly liquid account, consisting of new purchases and ST holdings, and sometimes shorts, hedges, PM's, or cash. Of this 35%, I never commit more than 8% and as little as 1/4% of the 30% to any one holding. While in this intermediate state, I decide how much, if any, will go into LT, eventually, even if only a thousand or few hundred shares.
My LT portfolio doesn't get near as much monitoring, in fact many of them are only only evaluated and possibly adjusted quarterly or semi-annually.
David, everyones situation is different, especially on taxes and size, but theres no way I could classify a portfolio of only 15 mostly ultra tiny companies as a LT and diversified portfolio, 15 might be very ample for a very actively managed, monitored and traded account, which is part of a bigger account, though.
Obviously you are very actively monitoring and managing, but my feeling is that you will still have much more than 90% annual turnover without ever intending to do so. I think you would be better off building (eventually) between 40 to 50, most with maybe a liitle larger market cap, stop monitoring and commenting daily on each holding, only on significant developments or ER's and instead concentrate on finding ever new and better prospects, leaving daily comments on noise to other posters, if you really intend to have a longer term portfolio. Maybe develop a watch or want list of solid prospects that can be alerted to when circumstances present.
For those using only a non-taxable account or are otherwise unconcerned about taxes, I say do what ever you can to maximaze your gains, hopefully eventually circumstances will become such that you will end up more tax conscious and LT oriented.
I'm happier than a pig in poop, if I can gain on average 28-30% annually AND the majority of those gains remain unrealized and tax-deferred, or tax reduced. I think Buffet once said something like "The best investments are those that you never sell."
So I guess it all comes down to what you really want (and what your subscribers really want). As of now, I still see your portfolio as a trading portfolio that is very actively monitored and managed, but not so actively traded.
David,
I know I dont post often but for what its worth I like the idea of having a watch list of stocks but I would be thrilled if you kept your porfolio to a limit of 15 stocks with the intention of holding them long term
Thanks
Jim
P.S. I am thrilled with the job you have done this year and on a side note I enjoy both your work with this porfolio and your life and investment views. I feel like I am definitely a part of a great site and that is largely due to my view that you are not only talented at this process but also because I believe you to be a genuinely good person. Keep up the great work
QuoteDavid, I guess I am probably in the minority. The reason I proposed to increase the holding# is based on my risk tolerance level. I think a portfolio with only 15 stocks is too volatile.
In hinder sight, everyone can say that as long as the portfolio grows nicely, volatility is a necessary evil. But as you can recall, several times when the portfolio dropped 3-4% in one day, people began to scream. On two occasions this year you yourself began to doubt the health of this bull market, was it 100% really based on reasonable thinking? Did high volatility never get into the way of your "firm hand"? What I am trying to say is that we are all humans, high volatility will break people's nerve at some point and cause irrational decisions.
Hi realcoolhead, I think the volatility comes more from holding stocks with a high beta than from a lack of appropriate diversification. I don't think volatility would be reduced if I were to hold 20 different holdings, instead of 15, if the additional 5 holdings were also young and growing small caps. Only if I held more mature companies, or much larger companies, would volatility be reduced. But that would also lower the long term return of the portfolio.
QuoteWell, I respect your decision and if you stick with 15 stocks I am ok too.
Thanks, it is still an open debate :)
Quote from: kpunarc on October 25, 2007, 07:46:38 PM
"the greater the risk, the greater the reward"
If you want more reward...such as the 30%/yr...volatility just may be something we'll have to stomach. Of course, we could just use the short-term as a 10-15 position holdings while leaving the main with 15+. But I see this as decreasing the 30%/yr potential of the main's portfolio. Looks like David's achieving the 30%/yr goal so why change what's working?
Some of us I know already have to pick and choose the 10 due to lack of funds to diversify.
However...the more positions David invests...the more some of us can choose from.
If you want to maintain that 30%/yr goal...i'd say stick to what you're doing now. At the same time, it would be nice to have more positions to choose from. I guess it's give and take depending on David's goals...30%/yr or more opportunities for us to choose from...
30% average annual return is the long term goal of the Main Portfolio. The idea is for 3 SOF's subscribers to invest in the Main Portfolio like they would do in a mutual fund, buying the 15 stocks, not picking between them. But I get your point ... most newsletter services have a recommended list of 100 or more stocks, and then it is the subscribers' job to pick the right ones to own. We wanted to go further and pick the stocks ourselves, so that everybody could follow the strategy, even if he doesn't know anything about the stock market or doesn't have any time to study stocks.
QuoteThe number of holdings I keep, most people would find inappropriate, unmanageable, maybe even ridiculous. I probably gain about 25 or so net holdings, meant for LT, on average per year.
I try to keep around 30% of total portfolio in what I consider as intermediate and active and mostly liquid account, consisting of new purchases and ST holdings, and sometimes shorts, hedges, PM's, or cash. Of this 35%, I never commit more than 8% and as little as 1/4% of the 30% to any one holding. While in this intermediate state, I decide how much, if any, will go into LT, eventually, even if only a thousand or few hundred shares.
My LT portfolio doesn't get near as much monitoring, in fact many of them are only only evaluated and possibly adjusted quarterly or semi-annually.
I see you're very flexible BigSully1. I wonder how do you keep discipline, having so many different strategies and time frames. Do you know, before buying, if it is a trade or a long term investment? And don't you ever get confused, say, sell a long term investment because "it got over-extended", and hold a "trade" for the long term because "this stock broke down, but it has long term value, so I'll hold it?"
You see, I also used to have this, let me call it, "I want it all" attitude, but over time and with this job's help I saw that I had too much confusion in my head, I couldn't be coherent in my strategy and analytical method if I couldn't choose to be a trader or an investor. I decided to be an investor, because the tools investors use make so much more sense, they're based in the real economic world, and if a company grows revenues and profits per share, the stock will necessarily rise. The trader's tools, namely technical analysis, in my view, don't work over the long term, at least not in individual stocks, which move more in tandem with the intrinsic company's fundamentals. I think technical analysis works better when analyzing currencies, interest rates or even the general market, where "fundamentals" are much more controversial. Technical analysis is more "macro", fundamental analysis is more "micro". Since, when studying stocks we're essentially looking at one company and its own merits and problems, I think fundamental analysis is much more appropriate. And fundamental analysis is a long term tool, because many times the market takes time to react to fundamental developments, and it also takes time to make the necessary move to accurately reflect a change in fundamentals.
QuoteObviously you are very actively monitoring and managing, but my feeling is that you will still have much more than 90% annual turnover without ever intending to do so. I think you would be better off building (eventually) between 40 to 50, most with maybe a liitle larger market cap, stop monitoring and commenting daily on each holding, only on significant developments or ER's and instead concentrate on finding ever new and better prospects, leaving daily comments on noise to other posters, if you really intend to have a longer term portfolio. Maybe develop a watch or want list of solid prospects that can be alerted to when circumstances present.
Well, I wouldn't own 40-50 stocks because I don't think such diversification is needed. I want the best of the best stocks, and not just "this is a good stock, so I'll buy it". On the daily writing suggestion, I can't do that, you see, over the last 36 hours there wasn't even one single post in this message board. If I didn't write daily, there would be very little to read and people would get bored. Also I believe the daily updates make people more comfortable owning the stocks recommended, they know that whatever happens to their stock, I'll write something.
QuoteFor those using only a non-taxable account or are otherwise unconcerned about taxes, I say do what ever you can to maximaze your gains, hopefully eventually circumstances will become such that you will end up more tax conscious and LT oriented.
I'm happier than a pig in poop, if I can gain on average 28-30% annually AND the majority of those gains remain unrealized and tax-deferred, or tax reduced. I think Buffet once said something like "The best investments are those that you never sell."
So I guess it all comes down to what you really want (and what your subscribers really want). As of now, I still see your portfolio as a trading portfolio that is very actively monitored and managed, but not so actively traded.
Yes, taxes are painful, especially if one is a US citizen.
I consider the Main Portfolio a long term investment and the biggest mistakes I made this year, especially over the past 6 months or so, was selling stocks. I'm very confident now that when I pick a stock and own it for more than a couple of weeks, it really means the stock is very attractive and it will probably double over the next 12 months. Of course, sometimes I'm wrong or it takes longer than 12 months, but in the majority of cases, I believe I'm right. Or better, now I know, much better than I did one year ago, how to pick stocks for the long term, because I've learned how to use the right tools to do this. But I still have a lot to learn and I'm excited about what lies ahead.
QuoteAs of now, I still see your portfolio as a trading portfolio that is very actively monitored and managed, but not so actively traded.
Why a "trading portfolio" instead of an "investment portfolio"? Because companies are small?
Yukiii used to write similar comments and I disagreed with him. All big companies were small one day. I don't get the point of, instead of catching them early in the growth process, waiting for companies to be in the middle or so of their run, and then invest in them.
If I buy a company for $50 M and it gets to $5 B, I get 100 bags of profit. If instead I disregard small companies, and wait for this one to get to $500 M before investing in it, when it gets to $5 B market cap I've earned just 10 bags. And, if there were already clues a micro cap could someday be a $5 B market cap, why should I wait? I can always sell if the company gets out of line ...
Anyway, I see the attractiveness of an investment relative to the value given by its fundamentals and I believe there are a lot more pricing inefficiencies in the small cap world than in the larger caps market.
Quote from: jdmark23 on October 26, 2007, 01:49:45 PM
David,
I know I dont post often but for what its worth I like the idea of having a watch list of stocks but I would be thrilled if you kept your porfolio to a limit of 15 stocks with the intention of holding them long term
Thanks
Jim
P.S. I am thrilled with the job you have done this year and on a side note I enjoy both your work with this porfolio and your life and investment views. I feel like I am definitely a part of a great site and that is largely due to my view that you are not only talented at this process but also because I believe you to be a genuinely good person. Keep up the great work
It is almost midnight here, my wife and kids are asleep ... I'll also go to bed now and will sleep better because of your kind words. Thanks Jim :)
I agree, it is the beta not the number of stocks that decides volatility. But more stocks give you a chance to diversify more in different sectors and stocks in different sectors may not behave in lockstep. Therefore even if all stocks in the portfolio have high beta, if some of them have low correlation or even negative correlation, the volatility will be reduced.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 03, 2007, 07:44:45 PM
Hi realcoolhead, I think the volatility comes more from holding stocks with a high beta than from a lack of appropriate diversification. I don't think volatility would be reduced if I were to hold 20 different holdings, instead of 15, if the additional 5 holdings were also young and growing small caps. Only if I held more mature companies, or much larger companies, would volatility be reduced. But that would also lower the long term return of the portfolio.
Bought this OTCBB today. Haven't researched it all thoroughly yet and will need to do so before making anymore substantial investment, but it's in a sector I like and I really appreciated the ER that just came out on it yesterday. So I'm just going to make it real quick. Chart looks real nice too, I think.
DGLY.ob Digital Ally Inc.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Digital Ally, Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of video surveillance products for law enforcement, homeland security, and commercial security applications. It primarily focuses on development of digital video imaging and storage products. The company's products include digital in-car video system and digital video flashlight. These products allow self-contained video and audio recording onto flash memory cards that are incorporated in the body of the flashlight. It also enables original equipment manufacturers in designing and manufacturing digital video subsystems to customer specifications. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Leawood, Kansas.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DGLY&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p66600901484
Here's the ER;
Digital Ally, Inc. Reports Record Third Quarter Sales and Earnings
Wednesday November 7, 8:30 am ET
Basic E.P.S. of $0.06 in Third Quarter and $0.10 in Nine Months, Exclusive of Income Tax Benefits, Compared With Losses in Prior-Year Periods
OVERLAND PARK, Kan., Nov. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Digital Ally, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: DGLY - News), which develops, manufactures and markets advanced video surveillance products for law enforcement, homeland security and commercial security applications, today announced record revenue and net income for the third quarter and first nine months of 2007. An investor conference call is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. EST today, November 7, 2007 (see details below).
ADVERTISEMENT
For the three months ended September 30, 2007, revenue increased 255% to approximately $5.1 million, when compared with revenue of approximately $1.4 million in the third quarter of 2006. Revenue in the most recent quarter increased 34% when compared with approximately $3.8 million in the second quarter of 2007 and continued a trend of impressive sequential growth in quarterly sales that began when Digital Ally commenced shipping its advanced digital surveillance products in March 2006.
Gross profits totaled $3,557,032 in the third quarter of 2007, and gross profit margin reached a record 69.7% of revenue. The Company reported net income of $2,973,562 in the quarter ended September 30, 2007, versus a net loss of ($1,240,663) in the third quarter of the previous year. Basic earnings per share of $0.21 in the quarter ended September 30, 2007, compared with a net loss of ($0.10) per share in the prior-year period. Diluted earnings per share totaled $0.18 in the quarter ended September 30, 2007, versus a net loss of ($0.10) per share in the third quarter of 2006. Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2007 included a $2,153,143 income tax benefit. This benefit resulted from the Company's reduction of its deferred tax valuation allowance due to the utilization of its net operating loss carryforward in the quarter and anticipated future usage of the carryforward because of its expected profitability, among other items. Excluding this income tax benefit, the Company would have reported record net income of $820,419, or $0.06 per basic and $0.05 per diluted share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2007.
The Company incurred non-cash stock compensation expense of $385,756 for the quarter ended September 30, 2007, compared with $744,832 in the prior-year quarter.
"I am very pleased to report that the sales and earnings momentum evident during the first half of 2007 was maintained, and in fact accelerated, during the third quarter, as our domestic and international orders from law enforcement agencies continued to expand," stated Stanton E. Ross, Chief Executive Officer of the Company. "Highlights of the third quarter included the development of several new features that enhance the functionality and utility of our DVM-500 Digital In-Car Video System Integrated into a Rearview Mirror. In July, we announced the availability of a wireless software file transfer feature that allows law enforcement officers to easily and inexpensively download video files from the DVM-500 to police headquarters or other remote locations. Shortly after the end of the third quarter, we introduced at the 114th Annual Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) Conference in New Orleans our Live Streaming Video solution, which will allow the DVM-500 to transmit live video of field activities to headquarters and multiple other locations, while at the same time recording the video. At the IACP Conference, we also introduced our new VideoManager Server, which enhances the ability of authorized headquarters personnel to view, upload, playback, search and manage DVM-500 video files from any networked computer with proper access rights."
"While ramping up production at our Kansas City facilities has proven to be quite a challenge during this period of rapid sales growth, I am pleased with the progress we have made in this regard," continued Ross. "We shipped approximately 1,250 DVM-500 units, along with a modest number of Digital Video Flashlights (DVF), in the most recent quarter, which exceeded our expectations of just a few months earlier."
For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, the Company's revenue totaled approximately $12.4 million, compared with revenue of approximately $2.3 million in the first nine months of 2006. Gross profits totaled $8,271,618 in the first nine months of 2007, for a gross profit margin of 66.9% of revenue, compared with gross profits of $1,276,718 (56.2% of revenue) for the nine months ended September 30, 2006.
The Company reported net income of $3,539,584 for the nine months ended September 30, 2007, versus a net loss of ($3,196,034) in the corresponding period of the previous year. Basic earnings per share of $0.26 in the first nine months of 2007 compared with a net loss of ($0.25) per share in the year-earlier period. Diluted earnings per share totaled $0.23 in the nine months ended September 30, 2007, versus a net loss of ($0.25) per share in the first nine months of 2006. Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2007 included a $2,153,143 income tax benefit. This benefit resulted from the Company's reduction of its deferred tax valuation allowance due to the utilization of its net operating loss carryforward in the period and anticipated future usage of the carryforward because of its expected profitability, among other items. Excluding this income tax benefit, the Company would have reported record net income of $1,386,441, or $0.10 per basic and $0.09 per diluted share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2007.
The Company incurred non-cash stock compensation expense of $1,294,278 for the nine months ended September 30, 2007, compared with $1,578,336 in the corresponding period of the previous year.
"From a balance sheet perspective, our financial condition continued to strengthen during the first nine months of 2007," observed Ross. "As of September 30, 2007, we had no debt outstanding and our shareholders' equity totaled approximately $7.5 million. By comparison, at the end of 2006, the Company had $1 million in outstanding debt and shareholders' equity of approximately $1.9 million."
The Company will host an investor conference call at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time today, November 7, 2007, to discuss its third quarter and nine-month operating results and the outlook for the balance of 2007. Shareholders and other interested parties may participate in the conference call by dialing 866-406-5369 (international/local participants dial 973-582-2847) and referencing the ID code 9407945 a few minutes before 11:00 a.m. EST on November 7, 2007. A replay of the conference call will be available two hours after completion of the conference call from November 7, 2007 until November 14, 2007 by dialing 877-519-4471 (international/local participants dial 973-341-3080) and entering the conference ID 9407945.
About Digital Ally, Inc.
Digital Ally, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets advanced technology products for law enforcement, homeland security and commercial security applications. The Company's primary focus is the field of Digital Video Imaging and Storage. For additional information, visit http://www.digitalallyinc.com
The Company is headquartered in Overland Park, Kansas, and its shares are traded on the OTC Bulletin Board under the symbol "DGLY."
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements are based largely on the expectations or forecasts of future events, can be affected by inaccurate assumptions, and are subject to various business risks and known and unknown uncertainties, a number of which are beyond the control of management. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking statements contained in this press release. A wide variety of factors that may cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the following: the Company's ability to raise sufficient capital to continue to implement its business plan; its ability to have all of its product offerings perform as planned or advertised; whether there will be a commercial market, domestically and internationally, for one or more of its products; its ability to commercialize its products and production processes, including increasing its production capabilities to meet orders; its ability to continue increasing revenue and profits; whether the Company will be able to adapt its technology to new and different uses, including being able to introduce new products; competition from larger, more established companies with far greater economic and human resources; its ability to attract and retain customers and quality employees; its ability to obtain patent protection on any of its products and, if obtained, to defend such intellectual property rights; the effect of changing economic conditions; and changes in government regulations, tax rates and similar matters. These cautionary statements should not be construed as exhaustive or as any admission as to the adequacy of the Company's disclosures. The Company cannot always predict or determine after the fact what factors would cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements or other statements. The reader should consider statements that include the words "believes," "expects," "anticipates," "intends," "estimates," "plans," "projects," or other expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events or trends, to be uncertain and forward-looking. The Company does not undertake to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
For Additional Information, Please Contact:
Stanton E. Ross, CEO at (913) 814-7774
or
RJ Falkner & Company, Inc., Investor Relations Counsel at (800) 377-9893 or
via email at
[email protected] (Financial Highlights Follow)
DIGITAL ALLY, INC.
CONDENSED BALANCE SHEETS
SEPTEMBER 30, 2007 AND DECEMBER 31, 2006
(Unaudited) (Audited)
September 30, December 31,
2007 2006
Assets
Current assets
Cash $199,295 $57,160
Accounts receivable-trade 2,804,758 977,826
Accounts receivable-other 168,491 225,716
Inventories 2,230,995 1,526,222
Prepaid expenses 497,431 422,279
Deferred taxes 2,153,143 --
Total current assets 8,054,113 3,209,203
Equipment 982,914 622,592
Less accumulated depreciation 240,256 114,851
742,658 507,741
Other Assets 133,645 59,305
Total Assets $8,930,416 $3,776,249
Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity
Current liabilities
Note payable $-- $500,000
Line of credit -- 500,000
Accounts payable 901,044 651,902
Accrued expenses 495,582 180,573
Customer deposits 16,479 20,899
Total current liabilities 1,413,105 1,853,374
Unearned Income 13,322 5,248
Commitments
Stockholders' equity
Common stock, $0.001 par value;
75,000,000 shares authorized;
Shares issued and outstanding:
13,996,527 - 2007; 13,309,027 - 2006 13,997 13,309
Additional paid in capital 11,482,856 9,436,766
Accumulated Deficit (3,992,864) (7,532,448)
Total Stockholders' Equity 7,503,989 1,917,627
Total Liabilities and
Stockholders' Equity $8,930,416 $3,776,249
DIGITAL ALLY, INC.
CONDENSED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
FOR THE THREE MONTHS AND NINE MONTHS
ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2007 AND 2006
(Unaudited) (Unaudited)
Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
September 30, September 30, September 30, September 30,
2007 2006 2007 2006
Revenue $5,100,525 $1,434,573 $12,359,594 $2,272,017
Cost of sales 1,543,493 610,854 4,087,976 995,299
Gross profit 3,557,032 823,719 8,271,618 1,276,718
Operating expenses 2,742,469 2,057,868 6,873,104 4,464,794
Operating income
(loss) 814,563 (1,234,149) 1,398,514 (3,188,076)
Financial income
(expense)
Interest income 6,445 2,308 15,630 18,220
Interest expense (589) (8,822) (27,703) (26,178)
5,856 (6,514) (12,073) (7,958)
Income (Loss) before
provision for income
taxes (benefits) 820,419 (1,240,663) 1,386,441 (3,196,034)
Income tax provision
(benefits) (2,153,143) -- (2,153,143) --
Net income (loss) $2,973,562 $(1,240,663) $3,539,584 $(3,196,034)
Net income (loss) per
share information:
Basic $0.21 $(0.10) $0.26 $(0.25)
Diluted $0.18 $(0.10) $0.23 $(0.25)
Weighted average
shares outstanding:
Basic 13,963,820 12,669,805 13,637,108 12,669,805
Diluted 16,087,850 12,669,805 15,141,322 12,669,805
DIGITAL ALLY, INC.
CONDENSED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
(Unaudited)
Nine Months Ended
September 30, September 30,
2007 2006
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income (loss) $3,539,584 $(3,196,034)
Adjustments to reconcile net income
(loss) to net cash flows (used in)
operating activities
Depreciation 125,405 52,804
Stock option expense 1,294,278 1,578,336
Shares of common stock issued
in lieu of cash compensation 87,500 215,000
Reserve for inventory obsolescence 185,394 --
Reserve for bad debt allowance 27,646 --
Deferred tax (benefits) (2,153,143) --
Change in assets and liabilities
(Increase) decrease in
Accounts receivable - trade (1,854,578) (817,336)
Accounts receivable - other 57,225 (127,931)
Inventories (890,167) (662,553)
Prepaid expenses (75,152) (333,788)
Other assets (63,503) (39,942)
Increase (decrease) in
Accounts payable 249,142 323,151
Accrued expenses 315,009 67,999
Customer deposits (4,420) (576)
Other liabilities 8,074 6,362
Net cash provided by (used in)
operating activities 848,294 (2,934,508)
Cash Flows from Investing Activities
Purchases of equipment (360,322) (287,826)
(Increase) in other assets - deposits (10,837) --
Net cash (used in) investing activities (371,159) (287,826)
Cash Flows from Financing Activities
Principal payments on line of credit (500,000) --
Proceeds from exercise of
stock options and warrants 165,000 50,000
Proceeds from sale of common stock -- 1,601,468
Net cash provided by (used in)
financing activities (335,000) 1,651,468
Increase (decrease) in cash 142,135 (1,570,866)
Cash, beginning of period 57,160 1,807,922
Cash, end of period $199,295 $237,056
Supplemental disclosures of
cash flow information
Cash payments for interest $27,703 $26,178
Supplemental disclosures of non-cash
investing and financing activities
Common stock issued for settlements
of note payable $500,000 $--
NOTE: FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION REFER TO THE COMPANY'S QUARTERLY REPORT ON FORM 10-QSB FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2007 FILED WITH THE SEC.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/071107/dgly.ob10qsb.html
Here's a real curiuosity ( My spelling doesn't look right) I ran across last night. Does anyone know why this stock should be hung with such a low valuation? Does it deserve it? Could it be that cyclical an industry? I could see where the "portable parking lot" multi-vehicle trailers, would be cyclical with the auto industry, but what about the towing and recovery? it also has global sales. Financials look strong to me, even though rising raw material expenses have been hurting some and may have been unable to pass on to customers, it appears they finished up some major muni and gov contract work in the 2Q, seems management regularly gives a somewhat subdued and cautious outlook, etc. Institutional support is very good. Chart looks pretty ugly. What am I missing, anyone know? ER was out last night and didn't look so bad to me, still turning a nice profit. Seems like some new muni or gov contracts could give a very nice boost. Maybe they should armor plate their tow trucks, and put some missile launchers on them. Hmmm. Just curious.
MLR - Miller Industries
Miller Industries, Inc. manufactures vehicle towing and recovery equipment. It offers various wrecker, car carrier, and trailer bodies. The company's wreckers range from the conventional tow truck to large recovery vehicles of 8 to 75 tons capability that are used to recover and tow disabled vehicles and other equipment. Its car carriers are flat-bed vehicles with hydraulic tilt mechanisms that enable a towing operator to drive or winch a vehicle onto the bed for transport. Car carriers are used to transport new or disabled vehicles and other equipment, as well as for transporting vehicles or other equipment over longer distances. The company's multi-vehicle transport trailers are auto transport trailers with upper and lower decks and hydraulic ramps for loading vehicles. The trailers are used for moving multiple vehicles for auto auctions, car dealerships, leasing companies, and other applications. Miller Industries offers its products under the Century, Vulcan, Challenger, Holmes, Champion, Chevron, Eagle, Titan, Jige, and Boniface brand names. It sells its products primarily through independent distributors in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, as well as in Europe, the Pacific Rim, and the Middle East. The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Ooltewah, Tennessee
Year over Year revenue and EPS trends look positive, but as you say, MLR's chart looks awful.
The catalyst for the drop was the following news:
CHATTANOOGA, Tennessee, August 7, 2007 - Miller Industries, Inc. (NYSE: MLR) (the "Company") today announced financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2007.
For the second quarter of 2007, net sales were $108.8 million, an increase of 18.4% compared with $91.9 million in the second quarter of 2006. Income before taxes rose 20.4% to $7.8 million from $6.5 million in the second quarter of 2006. As previously announced, in 2007 the Company returned to a normalized effective tax rate, which was 37.7% in the second quarter, as compared to 14.6% in the prior year period. Giving effect to the higher effective tax rate, second quarter 2007 net income was $4.9 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, compared with net income in the second quarter of 2006 of $5.5 million, or $0.48 per diluted share.
Costs of operations in the second quarter of 2007 were $93.1 million, compared to $78.1 million in the prior period. Gross profit for the second quarter of 2007 rose 13.5% to $15.7 million from $13.9 million in the second quarter of 2006. As a percentage of net sales, gross margin in the 2007 second quarter was 14.5%, compared to 15.1% in the 2006 second quarter, primarily reflecting a shift in sales mix. However, gross margin in the second quarter of 2007 improved on a sequential basis from 14.3% in the 2007 first quarter.
For the second quarter of 2007, selling, general and administrative expenses were $7.0 million, versus $6.4 million in the prior year period. As a percentage of net sales, selling, general and administrative expenses were 6.5% for the second quarter of 2007 versus 7.0% in the prior year period.
For the 2007 second quarter, the Company reported operating income (earnings before interest and taxes) of $8.7 million, or 8.0% of net sales, an increase of 16.6% over the $7.5 million, or 8.1% of net sales, recorded in the second quarter of 2006.
Interest expense for the Company in the second quarter of 2007 was $882,000, compared to $968,000 in the second quarter of 2006. Total senior and junior debt at June 30, 2007, was approximately $4.2 million, down from $9.6 million at March 31, 2007, and $15.6 million at June 30, 2006. As previously disclosed, on May 7, 2007, the independent members of the Company's Board of Directors, with the consent of the Company's senior lender, approved the repayment in full of the Company's remaining $5 million of junior debt. Additionally, on July 11, 2007, the Company amended its $20 million revolving credit facility and $7 million term loan with Wachovia Bank, reducing the interest rate to LIBOR plus 0.75% to 1.5% a year, from LIBOR plus 1.75% to 2.5% a year, and extending the maturity date of the credit agreement to June 17, 2010.
For the six-month period ended June 30, 2007, net sales rose 20.2% to $222.8 million compared to $185.4 million in the prior year period. Income before income taxes rose 22.5% to $16.2 million, compared with income before income taxes of $13.2 million in 2006. Reflecting the increase in the effective tax rate described above, the Company reported net income of $10.3 million, or $0.88 per diluted share for the first half of 2007, compared to net income for the first half of 2006 of $11.4 million, or $0.99 per diluted share.
"We are pleased with the results of the 2007 second quarter which saw us maintain historically high production levels, reinvest in our business and improve our overall financial strength," stated Jeffrey I. Badgley, President and Co-CEO of the Company. "During the previous year, we increased production levels to fulfill numerous large orders we received during the past several quarters. During the second quarter, we completed work on the orders for 62 small wreckers for the military and 80 small wreckers for a major municipality, as well as on the orders for the city of New York and DataPath. We also paid down the remainder of the Company's junior debt and in July successfully renewed and amended our senior credit facility, reducing our interest rate on borrowed funds going forward."
Mr. Badgley added, "We continued to work on modernizing our heavy-duty wrecker facility, which remains on schedule for completion this year. Our recently completed small wrecker facility has been performing well, and we look forward to the efficiency, customer service and product quality enhancements that these projects will bring going forward. We were also pleased with our Florida trade show in May, where we demonstrated new products that generated positive feedback from the industry."
Mr. Badgley concluded, "With the completion of the most recent municipal and military orders and with no additional follow-on orders on these contracts to date, our order intake has moderated. We expect this to cause net sales for the remainder of 2007 to be lower than those achieved during the past several quarters. While we remain optimistic about our ability to secure additional follow-on orders, we cannot predict the success or the timing of any such orders under these contracts. We continue to be concerned about general economic conditions and the effect they could have on the towing and recovery industry, as well as the level of acceptance by our customers of the 2008 chassis with new engine emission requirements. Accordingly, we have taken appropriate steps to reduce our production levels and lower our costs for the remainder of the year in response to these uncertainties. We will continue to monitor our cost structure to ensure that it remains in line with business conditions."
I guess it was the part in bold which caused the sell off ... I remember covering another company with a similar problem, pipeline of new orders suddenly dried, which one was it? I remember it made rail trucks or something similar.
Anyway, here we have another, very low P/E, yet trending sharply down. A long term buying opportunity? Would need more study to have more clues.
Look, 3rd quarter results were out yesterday:
• Miller Industries Reports 2007 Third Quarter Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071108/nyth167.html?.v=2)
PR Newswire (Thu 5:00pm)
Revenue and EPS are clearly trending down now. $0.31 EPS in this quarter gives me $1.24 annualized. With the stock trading at $12.47 the earnings multiple is 10.
The question is how much lower will earnings go? Remember that in the 2000-2003 period this company lost big bucks. Is the business that cyclical? Market seems to be discounting losses will appear soon, looks risky.
Perhaps a bounce because the bad news was just out and the stock is oversold, but both technicals and fundamentals point South.
Thanks David.
Hey BigSully1
Do you ride good ER stocks? If you do, it is a little opposite of what I was doing. Me and a million other people ride and let go before ER. Sounds like you listen and confirm good ER stats and then ride. Thanks in advance for your input. Just trying to learn a little.
Hi Houlihan
Sorry about the delayed response, somehow I missed your post. I think you are asking if I if I do ST trades based on good ER's momentum. Rarely I do that, instead I pour through numerable earnings reports in attempt to find new discoveries that I would like to own at some point, and then learn more about and hopefully buy at some point, when the opportunity is right.
You know, July and August was when the last ER's came out and we were going through a correction then also. I found several new discoveries last Q, with not only stellar reports, but also with a history of stellar reports along with other strong fundamentals, than watched in awe as they tumbled down unfairly with the rest of market. This gave me time to study them more and then buy when I felt the time was right at an irresistable price point.
Now the same thing is happening this Q, with this correction. I am still composing a list of several strong new prospects that are again becoming near to what is irresistable buying points (for me).
Fear is a much more powerful emotion than greed and this can be used to advantage, both for buying opps and shorting. I do ST short many stocks based on ugly ER's, ( without even much study) as more often than not, fear will usually drive down the price much faster and farther than is usually deserved.
But what I am really looking for are those great new prospects that I might want to hold (long) well into the future.
Hey BigSull1!,
We are all busy...don't feel bad about a slow response.
Oh my, I agree, Fear is a much more powerful emotion!!
If you feel like sharing with the "family" some of your new prospects, "we" would be honored, or at least I would! I think you list some of them on the good, bad & ugly thread. These days a company can have very good ERs, but you have to listen to their forward statement. Going forward is becoming difficult for some of these companies. CSCO had a good ERs but going forward I think they thought sales would soften. Who knows??
Have a good evening, thanks for your input and answering my questions.
A few notable ER's yesterday/today;
yesterday
SCHS,FOSL,MATW,VOD,WMT,GILT,CNST
last night
SSRX, PFSW?
this morn
CSIQ,DWSN,KALU,DSX?
TA had a particularly ugly report yesterday. I am still short on it. Of particular interest/concern was this statement from ER;
"Operating results in our industry for the three months ended September 30, 2007, were adversely affected by slowing economic growth in the United States generally and, in particular, within the trucking industry. We believe that the relative weakness of the U.S. economy, the slowing in the housing market and durable goods orders, and the historically high cost of crude oil, among other factors, have led to reduced demand by shippers for trucks to carry freight. As a result, total miles driven by trucks were down for the third quarter as compared to the prior year quarter. The decline in miles driven by our trucking customers resulted in greater competition within our industry for the fueling customer. Market forces drove diesel and gasoline prices steadily upward throughout the 2007 third quarter; this tends also to reduce demand and to compress our operating financial margins over time. Many U.S. trucking fleets are reporting some reduced ability to pass through the increased cost of fuel to their customers, which has focused the attention of our fleet customers on the cost of fuel and further compressed fuel margins. These negative pressures in the market had an adverse effect on our results for the third quarter and may continue to affect us."
Thanks BigSully1!
I see the market is selling a little.
short TA! good. I wish I knew options, I could have covered or recovered some of my loses from GRMN by buying puts. Lot to learn. Call it tuition. ;)
Forgive me, I did not mean I wish TA to go down, I just thought it was a good call on your part.
Quote from: Houlahan on November 14, 2007, 02:05:00 PM
Thanks BigSully1!
I see the market is selling a little.
short TA! good. I wish I knew options, I could have covered or recovered some of my loses from GRMN by buying puts. Lot to learn. Call it tuition. ;)
Forgive me, I did not mean I wish TA to go down, I just thought it was a good call on your part.
You can make money from a falling stock just by shorting the stock, you don't need options. I dislike options and warrants, just like stocks ... and oh well, futures >:D
BigSully1, we need to organize this "Your Stocks" and Analysis on Demand ideas better. This will be part of a new "investigation process". I'm working on it and will let you know later.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 14, 2007, 02:30:43 PM
Quote from: Houlahan on November 14, 2007, 02:05:00 PM
Thanks BigSully1!
I see the market is selling a little.
short TA! good. I wish I knew options, I could have covered or recovered some of my loses from GRMN by buying puts. Lot to learn. Call it tuition. ;)
Forgive me, I did not mean I wish TA to go down, I just thought it was a good call on your part.
You can make money from a falling stock just by shorting the stock, you don't need options. I dislike options and warrants, just like stocks ... and oh well, futures >:D
BigSully1, we need to organize this "Your Stocks" and Analysis on Demand ideas better. This will be part of a new "investigation process". I'm working on it and will let you know later.
That would be great David, looking forward to it.
An article yesterday in IBD yesterday is compelling me to write about a stock I first discovered in August on a stellar ER. They also had another outstanding on Nov 2. IBD did not mention this particular company in the article, but it is worth mentioning here. It's a micro/small cap and thinly traded, although not as thin anymore considering the stock is now $47 and trading with more volume lately.
The stock has an added benefit of global and military sales, in a sector I very much like, again. Highlights from the IBD article at bottom.
ATRO - Index Membership: N/A
Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: Aerospace/Defense Products & Services
Full Time Employees: 787
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Astronics Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the design and manufacturing of lighting systems and components, electrical power generation, in-flight control, and power generation systems for the aerospace industry worldwide. Astronics Corporation serves original equipment manufacturers (OEM) in the commercial transport, business jet, and military markets, as well as OEM suppliers and aircraft operators with various products, including cockpit lighting, exterior lighting, cabin lighting systems, and air frame power. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in East Aurora, New York.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ATRO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p59191861522
Astronics Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2007 Results
Friday November 2, 6:58 am ET
-- Third quarter net income of $4.1 million vs. $1.6 million in 2006
-- Year-to-date net income of $13.3 million compared with $4.9 million in 2006
-- Sales for 2007 expected to be in the $155 to $160 million range
EAST AURORA, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Astronics Corporation (NASDAQ: ATRO - News), a trusted leader in innovative, high performance lighting, power generation, control and distribution systems for the global aerospace industry, today reported sales of $37.7 million in the third quarter of 2007 which ended September 29, 2007, a 36% increase compared with sales of $27.8 million in the third quarter of 2006. Net income for the third quarter of 2007 was $4.1 million, up $2.5 million from the third quarter of 2006. On a per share basis, earnings were $0.48 per diluted share, or more than double earnings of $0.20 per diluted share in the same period last year.
ADVERTISEMENT
Sales to the commercial transport market led the year-over-year growth by increasing 54% to $23.1 million in the third quarter of 2007 compared with $15.0 million in the same period last year. Cabin electronics products, which provide in-seat power and power for in-flight entertainment systems for commercial aircraft, had sales of $18.8 million, a 63% increase compared with the third quarter of 2006 as many airlines continue aggressive refurbishment programs for older aircraft and new aircraft deliveries increase. Sales to the business jet market improved to $7.6 million in the third quarter of 2007, a 20% increase compared with $6.3 million in the same period the prior year as a result of expanded content on new aircraft platforms and the growth of the market. Military sales increased 10% to $6.7 million.
Peter J. Gundermann, President and Chief Executive Officer of Astronics Corporation, commented, "We continue to see strong demand across the aerospace industry for the full range of our products. We also see an exciting range of new opportunities for the future, though we will need to increase our engineering and development spending to develop them fully. We aim to compel our customers to choose us as partners as they develop new aircraft by offering innovative technology and high-value systems. When we are selected to develop products for an aircraft during its development phase, we can typically count on participating in the program for as long as the aircraft flies."
Costs and Expenses
Gross profit for the third quarter of 2007 was $10.1 million, or a gross margin of 26.9%, compared with $6.1 million, or a gross margin of 22.0%, in the same period the prior year. Gross profit in the 2007 third quarter was positively impacted by a $0.85 million adjustment related to 2007 estimated manufacturing overhead cost absorption. Had this adjustment been made in the first half of 2007, gross margin would have been $0.85 million higher in that period and third quarter gross margin $0.85 million lower than reported. Excluding this adjustment, gross margin would have been 24.6% in the third quarter of 2007. Engineering and Development (E&D) costs in the third quarter of 2007 were $3.8 million compared with $2.5 million in the same period the prior year.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses in the third quarter of 2007 were $3.9 million, or 10.3% of sales, compared with $3.5 million, or 12.5% of sales, in the same period the prior year.
Nine-Month Review
Sales for the first nine months of 2007 were $122.0 million, a 49% increase compared with $81.8 million in the first nine months of the prior year. Commercial transport sales in the first nine months of 2007 increased 79%, to $79.4 million compared with the same period the prior year. Business jet sales increased 32%, to $22.0 million, for the year-over-year nine-month period, while military sales remained flat. Strong aircraft production rates, new products and demand for in-seat power and in-flight entertainment systems using Astronics' power systems were the primary reasons for the growth.
Gross margin for the first nine months of 2007 was 27.2% compared with 22.4% in the first nine months of 2006. Operating leverage gained on the higher sales volume was partially offset by E&D expenses of $11.0 million in 2007 compared with $7.7 million in the first nine months of 2006. SG&A expenses for the first nine months of 2007 were $12.6 million, or 10.3% of sales, compared with $9.9 million, or 12.1% of sales, in the same period the prior year. Operating margin for the nine-month period was 16.9% compared with 10.2% in the first nine months of 2006.
Net income for the first nine months of 2007 was $13.3 million, or $1.56 per diluted share, compared with $4.9 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, in the first nine months of 2006.
Capital expenditures for the third quarter and first nine months of 2007 were $1.6 million and $7.6 million, respectively, compared with $0.7 million and $2.3 million in the third quarter and first nine months of 2006, respectively. The year-over-year capital expenditure increases can be attributed to facility expansions and equipment investments for the Company's East Aurora, New York and Redmond, Washington facilities.
Outlook
Bookings were $33.3 million in the third quarter of 2007 compared with $26.0 million in the same period the prior year and $38.7 million in the second quarter of 2007. At the end of the third quarter, backlog was $90.0 million of which $33 million is planned to ship during the last three months of 2007.
Peter J. Gundermann President and CEO, noted, "We now expect sales for the full year to be in the range of $155 million to $160 million, up approximately 40% over our 2006 total of $110.8 million. This will be our third year in a row of strong growth at or above this level. Our early expectations are that 2008 will be another very good year for Astronics, but that our growth rate will likely moderate to a range of 10% to 20%. This preliminary estimate is based on our insight into expected production rates and retrofit programs."
Third Quarter 2007 Webcast and Conference Call
The Company will host a teleconference at 10 a.m. ET today. During the teleconference,
Peter J. Gundermann, President and CEO, and David C. Burney, Vice President and CFO, will review the financial and operating results for the period and discuss Astronics' corporate strategy and outlook. A question-and-answer session will follow.
The Astronics conference call can be accessed the following ways:
The live webcast can be found at http://www.astronics.com. Participants should go to the website 10 - 15 minutes prior to the scheduled conference in order to register and download any necessary audio software.
The teleconference can be accessed by dialing (201) 689-8562 and requesting conference ID number 258587 approximately 5 - 10 minutes prior to the call.
To listen to the archived call:
The archived webcast will be at http://www.astronics.com. A transcript will also be posted once available.
A replay can also be heard by calling (201) 612-7415 and referencing account number 3055 and conference ID number 258587.
The telephonic replay will be available from 1 p.m. ET the day of the call through 11:59 p.m. ET November 9, 2007.
ABOUT ASTRONICS CORPORATION
Astronics Corporation is a trusted leader in innovative, high performance lighting, power generation, control and distribution systems for the global aerospace industry. Its strategy is to expand the value and content it provides to various aircraft platforms through product development and acquisition. Astronics Corporation, and its wholly-owned subsidiaries Astronics Advanced Electronic Systems Corp. and Luminescent Systems Inc., have a reputation for high quality designs, exceptional responsiveness, strong brand recognition and best-in-class manufacturing practices.
For more information on Astronics and its products, visit its website at www.Astronics.com.
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release contains forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. One can identify these forward-looking statements by the use of the words "expect," "anticipate," "plan," "may," "will," "estimate" or other similar expression. Because such statements apply to future events, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include the state of the aerospace industry, the market acceptance of newly developed products, internal production capabilities, the timing of orders received, the status of customer certification processes, the demand for and market acceptance of new or existing aircraft which contain the Company's products, customer preferences, and other factors which are described in filings by Astronics with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information in this press release whether to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results, financial conditions or prospects, or otherwise.
ASTRONICS CORPORATION
CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT DATA
(unaudited)
(in thousands except per share data)
Three months ended Nine months ended
9/29/2007 9/30/2006 9/29/2007 9/30/2006
Sales $ 37,724 $ 27,752 $ 121,967 $ 81,847
Cost of products sold 27,582 21,633 88,740 63,550
Gross margin 26.9 % 22.0 % 27.2 % 22.4 %
Selling general and administrative 3,877 3,469 12,557 9,931
Income from operations 6,265 2,650 20,670 8,366
Operating margin 16.6 % 9.5 % 16.9 % 10.2 %
Interest expense, net 396 232 1,072 650
Other (income) expense - (5 ) (11 ) (39 )
Income before tax 5,869 2,423 19,609 7,755
Income taxes 1,743 775 6,287 2,826
Net Income $ 4,126 $ 1,648 $ 13,322 $ 4,929
Basic earnings per share: $ 0.51 $ 0.21 $ 1.65 $ 0.62
Diluted earnings per share: $ 0.48 $ 0.20 $ 1.56 $ 0.60
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding 8,605 8,264 8,531 8,210
Capital Expenditures $ 1,649 $ 693 $ 7,566 $ 2,300
Depreciation and Amortization $ 876 $ 701 $ 2,447 $ 1,960
ASTRONICS CORPORATION
ORDER AND BACKLOG TREND
($, in thousands) 2006 2007
Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Twelve Months Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007
4/1/06 7/1/06 9/30/06 12/31/06 12/31/06 3/31/07 6/30/07 9/29/07
Sales $ 25,263 $ 28,832 $ 27,752 $ 28,920 $ 110,767 $ 42,875 $ 41,368 $ 37,724
Net Income $ 1,318 $ 1,963 $ 1,648 $ 807 $ 5,736 $ 4,695 $ 4,501 $ 4,126
Bookings $ 23,850 $ 23,929 $ 25,985 $ 40,411 $ 114,175 $ 40,351 $ 38,711 $ 33,347
Backlog $ 94,706 $ 89,803 $ 88,036 $ 99,527 $ 99,527 $ 97,003 $ 94,346 $ 89,969
Book:Bill 0.94 0.83 0.94 1.40 1.03 0.94 0.94 0.88
ASTRONICS CORPORATION
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET DATA
(unaudited)
(in thousands)
9/29/2007 12/31/2006
ASSETS:
Cash and cash equivalents $ 837 $ 222
Accounts receivable 23,869 17,165
Inventories 37,800 31,570
Other current assets 2,931 2,699
Property, plant and equipment, net 29,057 23,436
Other assets 9,372 7,446
Total Assets $ 103,866 $ 82,538
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY:
Current maturities of long term debt $ 949 $ 923
Note payable 10,400 8,100
Accounts payable and accrued expenses 23,542 25,196
Long-term debt 15,086 9,426
Other liabilities 7,582 7,545
Shareholders' equity 46,307 31,348
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $ 103,866 $ 82,538
ASTRONICS CORPORATION
SALES BY MARKET
($, in thousands)
Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
9/29/2007 9/30/2006 % change 9/29/2007 9/30/2006 % change 2007 YTD %
Military $ 6,731 $ 6,136 10 % $ 19,696 $ 19,724 0 % 16 %
Commercial Transport 23,116 14,993 54 % 79,433 44,448 79 % 65 %
Business Jet 7,626 6,340 20 % 21,952 16,668 32 % 18 %
Other 251 283 -11 % 886 1,007 -12 % 1 %
Total $ 37,724 $ 27,752 36 % $ 121,967 $ 81,847 49 % 100 %
ASTRONICS CORPORATION
SALES BY PRODUCT
($, in thousands)
Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
9/29/2007 9/30/2006 % change 9/29/2007 9/30/2006 % change 2007 YTD %
Cockpit Lighting $ 10,051 $ 8,300 21 % $ 27,064 $ 23,582 15 % 22 %
Cabin Electronics 18,803 11,570 63 % 66,346 32,658 103 % 54 %
Airframe Power 4,079 3,759 9 % 14,572 12,320 18 % 12 %
Exterior Lighting 2,353 1,872 26 % 6,437 5,851 10 % 5 %
Cabin Lighting 2,187 1,968 11 % 6,662 6,429 4 % 6 %
Other 251 283 -11 % 886 1,007 -12 % 1 %
Total $ 37,724 $ 27,752 36 % $ 121,967 $ 81,847 49 % 100 %
Contact:
Astronics Corporation
David C. Burney, 716-805-1599, ext. 159
Chief Financial Officer
Fax: 716-805-1286
[email protected]----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll have to try to find an online link to the entire IBD article, but here are some highlights
"Aerospace Suppliers Risingon Carriers Big Spending Plans"
Global competition forcing U.S carriers" to upgrade their fleets to compete for business on International flights."
"Aircraft are being retrofitted with roomier cabins, wider seats, and new entertainment centers-the kind of perks you would find at many non-U.S airlines."
"The trend has been a boon to companies that supply parts and equipment to commercial airlines. The 51 stocks in the group hit a record high last month. Even after last weeks selloff, the group is up 35% for the year."
"Some of the companies double as defense suppliers, so they've also gotten a boost from heightened military spending."
"They also benefit froma couple of trends in the airline industry. One is a rise in orders for new planes, mainly in overseas markets. The other is an uptick in demand for aftermarket parts in the U.S. and elsewhere."
" the International segment is really driving aerospace orders for the whoile segment-especially markets in India, China, and the Middle East."
"The consensus is we'll probably go out to 2011 before this cycle ends."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No where in the article does IBD mention ATRO, but the last time I looked, IBD had it rated "Best in Group" in all categories. I'll have to check that again and report back.
IBD has ATRO rated 99=A+
and is still rated "Best in Group" in technical, attractiveness, and overall ranks, but has fallen to #4 (out of 50) on the fundamental rank. Still the top stock overall.
Couldn't find the article online.
Added to my DGLY.ob today.
It seems no one on the members board is at all interested, so I'm going to go ahead and post about it on the public board.
Source: Digital Ally, Inc.
Digital Ally, Inc. Applies to List Common Stock on the NASDAQ Capital Market
Thursday November 15, 8:30 am ET
OVERLAND PARK, Kan., Nov. 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Digital Ally, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: DGLY - News), which develops, manufactures and markets advanced video surveillance products for law enforcement, homeland security and commercial security applications, today announced that the Company has applied for a listing of its common stock on The NASDAQ Capital Market.
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"We believe that Digital Ally, Inc. now complies with all of the listing requirements for The NASDAQ Capital Market, and we have filed the appropriate documents with NASDAQ to apply for such listing," stated Stanton E. Ross, Chief Executive Officer of the Company. "In light of the strong sales and earnings growth achieved by the Company in recent quarters, we believe it is appropriate to list Digital Ally's common stock on the widely respected NASDAQ Stock Market. Our goal in seeking this listing is to broaden our exposure to potential investors and improve the trading liquidity of our stock."
Approval of the listing application is subject to a qualitative and quantitative review process by NASDAQ.
About Digital Ally, Inc.
Digital Ally, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets advanced technology products for law enforcement, homeland security and commercial security applications. The Company's primary focus is the field of Digital Video Imaging and Storage. For additional information, visit http://www.digitalallyinc.com
The Company is headquartered in Overland Park, Kansas, and its shares are traded on the OTC Bulletin Board under the symbol "DGLY".
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements are based largely on the expectations or forecasts of future events, can be affected by inaccurate assumptions, and are subject to various business risks and known and unknown uncertainties, a number of which are beyond the control of management. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking statements contained in this press release. A wide variety of factors that may cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the following: the Company's ability to raise sufficient capital to continue to implement its business plan; whether the Company's application for a NASDAQ Capital Market listing will be approved; the Company's ability to have all of its product offerings perform as planned or advertised; whether there will be a commercial market, domestically and internationally, for one or more of its products; its ability to commercialize its products and production processes, including increasing its production capabilities to meet orders; its ability to continue increasing revenue and profits; whether the Company will be able to adapt its technology to new and different uses, including being able to introduce new products; competition from larger, more established companies with far greater economic and human resources; its ability to attract and retain customers and quality employees; its ability to obtain patent protection on any of its products and, if obtained, to defend such intellectual property rights; the effect of changing economic conditions; and changes in government regulations, tax rates and similar matters. These cautionary statements should not be construed as exhaustive or as any admission as to the adequacy of the Company's disclosures. The Company cannot always predict or determine after the fact what factors would cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements or other statements. The reader should consider statements that include the words "believes", "expects", "anticipates", "intends", "estimates", "plans", "projects", or other expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events or trends, to be uncertain and forward-looking. The Company does not undertake to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
For Additional Information, Please Contact:
Stanton E. Ross, CEO at (913) 814-7774
or
RJ Falkner & Company, Inc., Investor Relations Counsel at (800) 377-9893
or via email at
[email protected]
Just a suggestion for the new "watch list". I don't think everyone should be allowed to start new topics on it, otherwise, it will just become another cluttered, unmanageable board. It needs to be limited, as we need to agree that the stocks are "coveted", but under the right circumstances. I think the stocks should be deemed watchable and wantable before they are ever placed on the "watch" list. They could be pre-approved by David or other moderators, or another way, maybe better, might be to have some kind of subscriber vote on a list of prospects that subscribers pitch. Otherwise, I don't see it going anywhere. It's going to have to have some kind of organization, IMO.
If we kept the watch list limited to say the 25 or 35 most coveted stocks, it wouldn't be a problem for the subscribers to follow them and report on fundamental developments, news, opportunistic technical points etc. on all of them, and it shouldn't be a big a problem for David to monitor our postings and then decide whether or not to pull the trigger on any.
I agree, on the Watch List, if somehow stocks can be filtered before they are posted. They need to be "quality" stocks that we would watch. I assume we are watching/waiting for a good buy/sell point?
How is this done without burdening someone with a lot of homework??
Maybe, if we had more detailed "rules" before it is listed. David, don't you have a general outline of parameters you like to see met before "digging" deeper? market cap. profit margin, etc.
just my simple thoughts.
Quote from: BigSully1 on November 15, 2007, 04:45:44 PM
Added to my DGLY.ob today.
It seems no one on the members board is at all interested, so I'm going to go ahead and post about it on the public board.
Hey BigSilly1!! :-*
Many, many times I am reading everyones information, but I do not comment. I do not feel qualified to respond, so just b/c "we" do not type something I hope people do not think we are not interested.
You have great picks & posts, along with other family members. I just read and soak it in. So, please do not feel like you are talking to yourself. I can only wish, I could give more to this board. I would ask questions, but who wants to take the time to answer those baby questions time and time again. Except David! He is such a sweet heart.
So, please do not be frustrated with us for missing out on a gem. Maybe people were turned off by the OB part, but it is moving up! Congrats on your find.
Yours truly, Houlahan
Houlihan, I'm just tired, very grouchy, and very glad that earnings season is all but over again. I'm ready for a vacation. How can I convince my wife that Overland Park, KS., headquarters of DGLY is a good place to vacation? >:D
I know you appreciate, but I also know that David does not appreciate or like my postings.
I don't think you should ever feel unqualified to comment or question, no matter how simple it may seem to you. I've asked many "dumb" questions myself, especially on technicals, and am forever in a learning process. I'm happy to answer when I can. Besides, discussion and questions lead to learning and discovery for all.
As to missing out on a gem; the price is still roughly the same, I don't know that it is a gem yet, it is still an OB, ALL OB's are highly speculative as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not going to pump any stock, especially an OB stock. But I do think it worth looking into.
buenos dias! = good morning!
Houlahan, I am in the same boat because after reading some of the posts I konw I know nothing! ;D
but just like Bigsully says we all learn by being inquisitive.
I too have refrained from posting because as some would say " I is igant" or "I bees ignant" or simply I ignore ( ;D) quite a lot when it comes to this investment world.
I love the fact though that David provides this interative service.
Quote from: BigSully1 on November 15, 2007, 04:45:44 PM
Added to my DGLY.ob today.
It seems no one on the members board is at all interested..........
Quite the opposite BigSully. I have added DGLY and ATRO into my watchlist. Keep up the contributions.
Was it you who asked if I live in Australia? Yes I do, in Perth. It's a beautiful country and right now we are heading into summer. That means I get to swim in my pool most days and enjoy the warmth of the sun. I used to live in the UK, those of you familiar with UK weather will know why I love the sunshine here so much ;)
Vietnam Plans to Buy a Dozen Boeing 787s
Friday November 16, 9:25 am ET
Vietnam Plans to Order 12 Boeing 787s Amid Growing Demand for Air Travel in Southeast Asia
HANOI, Vietnam (AP) -- Vietnam plans to buy 12 Boeing 787s to meet growing demand for air travel in the booming Southeast Asian country, officials said Friday.
State-owned Vietnam Airlines will purchase four of the planes and a new joint venture called Vietnam Aircraft Leasing Co. will purchase eight, company officials announced at a news conference. They expect to sign the deals soon.
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Vietnam Airlines and Chicago-based Boeing Co. declined to disclose the price of their deal. VALC said in a news release it would pay $1.42 billion for its eight planes.
Many companies in the region are lining up to buy new planes, said Pham Ngoc Minh, vice president of Vietnam Airlines and chairman of VALC. "If we don't make a quick and bold move now, the delivery of the planes would have to be pushed back further," Minh said.
VALC is a consortium of five large state-owned Vietnamese companies, including Vietnam Airlines which is the biggest stakeholder with 23 percent. VALC will lease its 787s to Vietnam Airlines when the planes are delivered in 2014.
Vietnam Airlines now has 46 aircraft in its fleet. Two years ago it said it planned to have 80 planes by 2015 and 110 by 2020.
Given the rapid pace of economic growth in Vietnam, Minh said, the company may have to purchase even more aircraft.
In September, Vietnam Airlines signed a memorandum of understanding with Airbus to buy 10 A350-900 plus 20 smaller A321s.
Communist Vietnam has been implementing free-market reforms, and its economy is now among the fastest growing in the world, increasing by more than 8 percent last year. The country joined the World Trade Organization earlier this year, and foreign investment and tourism are booming.
Vietnam Airlines spokesman Trinh Ngoc Thanh said Vietnam's air transport market has grown an average of 15 percent per year in recent years.
Vietnam Airlines had already previously ordered four 787s in 2005.
To date, Boeing has won more than 700 orders for the 787, while Airbus has received 154 firm orders and 110 nonbinding commitments for the similarly sized A350, which is scheduled to enter service in 2013.
buenos dias!
Hi pinoleropuro & BigSully1,
Thanks for your encouragement to ask questions. I would say it was my pride getting in the way of asking questions. :P
Eek the day is ticking away and I have stuff to do! bye
QuoteI know you appreciate, but I also know that David does not appreciate or like my postings.
Don't be silly, I love your posts :)
Looking forward for your help at the Watch List board. The thing is just getting started, next week I'll start many more threads there ... of course, you can start threads too.
Going to pick up my kids now, see you.
David, instead of clogging up and just getting lost on your watch list, I posted 19 of my current best picks on the public "stock picks" board today instead. I doubt you will find any of them appealing, but if by chance you do, you can always copy them to your watch list, if you are so inclined. I had to start new threads on these TDG, ATRO, ACO, CTRP, ENS, EHTH, CRM, TKC, AXYS, SDA, DGLY.ob, PLXS, LFT, HIMX, HMIN (HMIN only on watch). The following already had threads and I just added comments- BIDZ, ABAX, BPHX, SXE.
For me, almost of these stocks I already own, several very recently, and aren't exactly on MY watch list, with exceptions being HMIN - ER due Tues and don't own any yet, LFT and HIMX only own small amounts, SXE have a reduced amount, still really like the stock and am watching for possible re-entry at some time. SXE was 1 year ago IPO, asked you to analyze back in Feb.
All of these I believe to be very solid picks into the future, with the exception of possibly HMIN, LFT, HIMX.
LFT's ER due Monday morning.
Still working on a few more from this seasons ER's, but not ready to post on them yet.
Hey Sully!
First of all, if that is the "worst" thing you do, you're OK with me!!lol It was not that bad! Of course we forgive you!! We all get tried and cranky and act "bad" sometimes. Although, I would not call it bad in my book.
Do not keep your distance from this board, unless you are on vacation! Sounds like you have been working hard and the stock market has been working hard against us. :-\
I smell, in the air, a turn in the market, early December. :D
So, enjoy your rest. Have a wonderful vacation! Happy Thanksgiving. I am thankful for you! Come chat soon.