On Thursday SOLF beat analysts' estimates by announcing income of 17 cents (which beat by 14 cents) and revenue of 100 million. The company raised full year 2007 outlook to 280-300 million. Seems very interesting. On tear for last few days. I think David can dig more.
SOLF today closed @ 20.6
Quote from: stocky on December 03, 2007, 05:44:45 PM
On Thursday SOLF beat analysts' estimates by announcing income of 17 cents (which beat by 14 cents) and revenue of 100 million. The company raised full year 2007 outlook to 280-300 million. Seems very interesting. On tear for last few days. I think David can dig more.
SOLF today closed @ 20.6
Add CSIQ...strong earnings in same solar sector...in same country.
I think for short term you need to watch Crude price and how things are going in the Solar Leaders including FSLR, SPWR and STP. It would be interesting to see David's take on SOLF fundamentals.
SOLF is gangsta for today. Based on similar increase in stake you may see ASTI doubling from yesterdays close of 17.75. Hope both help me win Strategy Lab Open.
Gee, what a jump, how did I miss this one? ???
3rd quarter results were pretty impressive and the catalyst for the move:
• Solarfun Reports Third Quarter 2007 Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071129/20071129005445.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu, Nov 29)
$0.17 EPS per ADS. Annualized is $0.68. With the stock currently at $27, the p/e is 39.7. Using the same method JASO's is 30 and TSL's is 42.
At first sight I would say SOLF's positive earnings surprise is priced in now. But I would let the profits run, I guess. Good luck stocky :)
(I'll take a more in depth look at SOLF in the near future)
You need to check out the non premium board...ksl has been all over this...weeks before ER!
And as he suggests, it'd be highly beneficial to check out CSIQ. Same revenues as SOLF but 1/2 the market cap. SOLF slightly more efficient. CSIQ has as much or more capacity to produce PV cells than SOLF.
Long both stocks, took 2/5ths off SOLF today in 26.5 to 27 range. Look to sell a spike tomorrow or hold / buy a dip. Barring major meltdown in solar stocks, CSIQ should have a major rally tomorrow. Chart is magnificent!!!
Solar Sees Increased Attention
on Energy Bill
Tuesday's session saw continued talk of Fed rate cuts, financials
seeing increased selling pressure, speculation regarding
gaming consolidation, and solar names on the rise again. This
alternate energy sector saw a barrage of news from many located
in the China market which spilled over into a sympathy
related rally for the whole space.
Solarfun Power Holding Company Limited (SOLF) began the rally when shares gained over 39%
following news that the Company had reached an agreement with Good Energies Inc., a renewable
energy investor, to sell some 66.7 million ordinary shares and 281,011 American Depository
Shares to the investor. Included in the investment were almost 50% of the shares held by
SOLF's chairman and CEO, Yonghua Lu. It was noted that Lu would retain a 16.1% stake in the
Company. The deal effectively raises Good Energies' holdings to 34.7% from only 6.3% of the
Company before the deal. It also will allow Good Energies to have additional control of the board
of directors.
The deal left some investors worrying about the CEO's faith in the Company. There aren't many
instances of CEO's liquidating 50% of their holdings. Even rarer was the security gaining over
40%.
Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) also was in on the action as speculation circulated of a potential
partnership circulated the floors. The Company has been highlighted a few times with their growing
top line and more recently by raising $75 million in a 144A private placement. Shares gained
some 17% on the day with over 5 million shares traded.
LDK Solar Co Ltd (LDK) shares saw a 31% increase on Tuesday. The Company had become
embattled in an inventory disagreement with a former employee. Shares had seen their price fall
from highs of over $75 in late September to lows in the $26 area in late November. On November
15th the Company announced guidance for sales of $165 to $170 million. Earnings were
expected to be between 37c and 41c.
No official news had been reported over the past few days but a story circulated that noted the
Company had raised some $700 million in debt and had retained all of their customers throughout
the inventory discrepancy. The Company earlier had noted that the investigation into inventories
reporting had continued. They were expected to announce their findings in early December. With
that on the horizon, the shares could see additional attention.
Also contributing to the heightened attention to the sector was the proposed energy bill. The
legislation was seen as a negative catalyst last month as news that the Democrats were proposing
a stripping out of alternative energy tax cuts to gain favor of the Republicans to override any
presidential veto. With the bill possibly being on the agenda in the coming days, investors would
certainly be wise to watch many in the solar area.
any suggestion for an reentry point?
Upper teens? I think it should be pretty volatile for a little while and may take some time to consolidate gains. I would like it if it settled right around 20 for a few days...
I got this new program that its like an indicator for when money is flowing into a stock or out of a stock and based on this X2 program its indicating that money is flowing into this stock.
so for the long term it looks good.
from seeking alpha:
Solarfun Finally Performs and Has Clear Path to 2008 Projections
posted on: December 06, 2007 | about stocks: STP / SOLF
Print Email
The two companies in the solar space I have the most personal investment experience with are Suntech Power (STP) and Solarfun Power (SOLF). Suntech Power is an established Chinese leader, and up until last week, Solarfun Power has been a wayward second tier player with untapped potential. After a series of fumbling quarters, the company finally came through and "investors" (I use that word lightly) rewarded it with a >100% return in a week.
While the quarter was good I believe Solarfun Power really benefited from a dearth of other 'speculative' sectors that hot money chases (dry bulk, Chinese small cap, etc) working the day it reported - so seemingly all the hot money went into one stock (sector). So the move is a bit overdone relative to what exactly it reported - again the results were good but I've seen better results in other names, not move those stocks nearly as much.
After spiking to over $30 yesterday, the stock has tumbled to $22s range today, so I purchased the fund's first stake in this name. This stake is larger than I what usually begin a position with simply because I have a long (and storied) history with this stock. Now with this said, there are a lot of speculators who are sitting in the stock so they still could be a near term issue as their impatience could cause more selling pressure; the stock could fall farther from here. However, based on the ability finally to execute a quarter to Wall Street's expectations and a host of other positives that this company always "had" (but were clouded due to its lack of execution) I am willing to include into the fund.
On the negative side (or positive depending on how you look at it) - Solarfun Power CEO sold half his stake to an outside investor - on the positive end this is a solid investor well versed in the alternative energy area, but on the negative you don't want to see insiders giving up such a large stake this early in the life cycle of a company. Hence I found this to be negative. Further, there is a lot of management turnover in this company - another negative. However I do believe the 'rising tide lifts all boats' situation will help Solarfun and until more info is presented at LDK Solar (LDK) i.e. audit/earnings and a better technical picture arises for Trina Solar (TSL), the choices are relatively limited. Some of the other players, I don't want to touch with your 10 foot pole.
Buying SolarfunLDK Solar (LDK) ahead of audit results/earnings, (you can game the system and believe the audit will work out) no issues and away we go to $60, but just as easily you could be down 25% within a few minutes. Hence I'd rather pay up for merchandise once I get more information (I hold a small stake of LDK Solar until more info is afforded to me). Now that Solarfun has (finally) executed to Street expectations, and has a clearer path to projections for 2008 - it should be looked at favorably the rest of the quarter.
It does lag its peers with only a 16% gross margin, but this should improve with time as well, and is far superior to some other second tiers such as Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and China Sunergy (CSUN). Those might hold more upside potential as speculators love these latter stocks, but Solarfun has at this time proven to be better operationally. So again, any of these companies mentioned in the preceding paragraph hold much more operational risk than a company such as Suntech Power (STP) but with risk comes some additional return potential.
Yesterday, most of the solar sector was down - not sure why; it could be partly due to huge runs needing to be digested or people hand wringing over U.S. legislation for alternative energy initiatives - an issue that is way overblown one way or the other in the near term. While it might help sentiment, it means very little for most of these companies who have little to no U.S. exposure (save Sunpower (SPWR)). But this is horde mentality and if the bill passes all these companies (many of which have zero U.S. exposure) should be worth 30% more, or vice versa.
This is a bill, mind you, that needs to get through the Senate and an oil man sitting in the Oval Office. Hence the day-to-day hand wringing is pointless from this viewpoint. I did take the opportunity to add more to Suntech Power as well here in the $73s range; I am hoping for a pullback to $70 to add more. As for Solarfun Power, I started with a 900 share position or roughly a 1.7% position or $20.5K. If fortunate enough to see a pullback to upper (or mid teens), I would add in much larger scale.
I do expect to see some panicked speculators to be frightened out of their shares in this name (soon), and this could provide an even better buying opportunity. But if not, we have some skin in the game and a positive result from LDK Solar (LDK) could reignite this sector and vault a company like Solarfun.
Disclosure: Long Suntech Power, Solarfun Power, LDK Solar in fund; long Suntech Power, Solarfun Power in personal account
Quote from: la-onda on December 06, 2007, 02:44:42 AM
any suggestion for an reentry point?
volume remains high on SOLF...many took their profits by now...including me. If SOLF is to continue it's on fire trend...this should put in a white Candle Friday. Could be a double bottom at $21.65. However the 50% retracement is at $20.80. If it bounces off either of those levels to close with a nice white candle. SOLF should trade higher. Watch volume closely. ;)
Well SOLF put in a nice white candle today. Volume remains strong...still on fire >:D
Yes, SOLF withstood the inevitable correction very well. I'm sure solars will correct again, but pretty much everything broke out today...so there may be no looking back.
I'll probably look to try to get some of my shares of this undervalued solar stock back.
ksl..you still in CSIQ? We are clear for a huge move! No resistance...best fundamentals in the industry I think. If they can prove they can convert large revs to EPS.
Quote from: bjc on December 07, 2007, 05:44:00 PM
Yes, SOLF withstood the inevitable correction very well. I'm sure solars will correct again, but pretty much everything broke out today...so there may be no looking back.
I'll probably look to try to get some of my shares of this undervalued solar stock back.
ksl..you still in CSIQ? We are clear for a huge move! No resistance...best fundamentals in the industry I think. If they can prove they can convert large revs to EPS.
Yes...still in CSIQ... ;D
Nice buying after hours too.
video:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=604259905&play=1
chart:
Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductor - Specialized
Full Time Employees: 1,745
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiary, Jiangsu Linyang Solarfun Co., Ltd., engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of photovoltaic (PV) cells and PV modules primarily in the People's Republic of China. It offers monocrystalline silicon cells and modules, and multicrystalline silicon cells and modules to system integrators, as well as through third party distributors. It also provides PV cell processing services to convert silicon wafers into PV cells on behalf of third parties, including silicon suppliers; and solar system integration services to end-users in China. The company's customers include solar energy product distributors, engineering and design firms, and other energy product distributors. It also has operations in Germany, Italy, and Spain. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Qidong, the People's Republic of China.
VALUATION MEASURES
Market Cap (intraday)5: 905.93M
Enterprise Value (28-Jan-08)3: 977.00M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 45.25
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) 1: 1.85
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.45
Price/Sales (ttm): 4.00
Price/Book (mrq): 3.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 4.26
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 44.047
PRICE TARGET SUMMARY
Mean Target: 147.60
Median Target: 147.60
High Target: 268.19 :o
Low Target: 27.00
No. of Brokers: 2
(http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/8167/solfestimatesmj4.jpg)
(http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/3363/solfchartdf4.jpg)
Quote from: Se7en on January 28, 2008, 07:16:09 PM
Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductor - Specialized
Full Time Employees: 1,745
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiary, Jiangsu Linyang Solarfun Co., Ltd., engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of photovoltaic (PV) cells and PV modules primarily in the People's Republic of China. It offers monocrystalline silicon cells and modules, and multicrystalline silicon cells and modules to system integrators, as well as through third party distributors. It also provides PV cell processing services to convert silicon wafers into PV cells on behalf of third parties, including silicon suppliers; and solar system integration services to end-users in China. The company's customers include solar energy product distributors, engineering and design firms, and other energy product distributors. It also has operations in Germany, Italy, and Spain. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Qidong, the People's Republic of China.
VALUATION MEASURES
Market Cap (intraday)5: 905.93M
Enterprise Value (28-Jan-08)3: 977.00M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 45.25
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) 1: 1.85
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.45
Price/Sales (ttm): 4.00
Price/Book (mrq): 3.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 4.26
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 44.047
PRICE TARGET SUMMARY
Mean Target: 147.60
Median Target: 147.60
High Target: 268.19 :o
Low Target: 27.00
No. of Brokers: 2
(http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/8167/solfestimatesmj4.jpg)
(http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/3363/solfchartdf4.jpg)
Careful...many of yahoo's analysts numbers on SOLF are in RMB not USD.
1 RMB=.1387
So that target is $37 usd or $268 RMB
I still think SOLF and CSIQ are very undervalued compared to the rest of the sector.
They obviously suffered very much in the pullback, but if money starts coming back to solar issues like it looks like it might be, I think these stocks come back fast. A lot of questions will be answered when they announce earnings again. If they both perform again, then they will both make new highs I think. SOLF may not make new highs, but CSIQ will. But I would think SOLF will see $30 again.
I think these stocks move higher into earnings. FSLR and YGE earnings coming up will give a glimpse into the sector.
I may buy some FSLR puts to protect myself against the massive amounts of money I will lose if they disappoint.
SOLF: Short Interest UP 309.2% to 11.3M at the End of Jan 2008
Monday , February 11, 2008 16:22ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (NasdaqNM: SOLF) INCREASED 309.2% to 11,311,866 shares as reported at month-end January, 2008. Based on SOLF's 20-day average daily share volume of 4,415,935, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
SOLF: Banc of Amer Cuts to Sell from Neutral; Cuts Tgt to $12 vs $37; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, February 27, 2008 08:54ET
Issuer: Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (NasdaqNM: SOLF)
Analyst Firm: Banc of America
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Sell (from Neutral)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $12.00 (-67.57% from $37.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm downgraded the shares to reflect the uncertain outlook for silicon as they believe industry gross margins will continue to contract.
earnings out next days; ugly chart
After all SOLF went down more than anyone expected on this thread.
After the 3rd quarter positive surprise in EPS, we've had the 4th quarter and full year results on March 27:
• Solarfun Reports 2007 Full-Year and Fourth Quarter Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080327/20080327005528.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu, Mar 27)
I see a lot of growth in everything expect the most important: EPS.
There are plans for continuing dilution:
«Note that on January 29, 2008 the Company placed US $172.5 million of Convertible Senior Notes due 2018.»
People on this thread generally agreed that CSIQ has better fundamentals than SOLF and the market seems to share that view.
I am liking SOLF as a pre earnings play. Technically the chart has bottomed and has strong support in the $14 to $16 zone. Today on higher than average volume SOLF closed at highest point since Feb 19th. There is a high short interest around 15M shares on a 48M float (31%). SOLF announce earnings May 21st.
All those ingredients could set up a nice run to earnings as Solar stocks are back in the limelight.
Caveat: SOLF were downgraded recently over margin and supply concerns on silicon (an issue for other panel makers also). That said, the information is already in the public domain and could be priced in.
Thanks to Poli for highlighting SOLF to me, however I see many of our good friends are already watching closely.
Bought SOLF Wednesday on the volume backed breakout above Tuesday high.
I like the close support and pre earnings run potential, and short squeeze combination.
Will decide how to exit over the coming days. Am leaning toward profit taking prior to earnings, but not 100% committed to that yet.
AussieTrader, I sold this morning on the gap up. My goal was to sell the day before earnings but, any trade that is a short time trade strategy I will normally sell if it trends higher all day on 2x its normal volume and the next day it gaps up. I will sell in the first 30 minutes of trading that morning. SOLF did not follow my rule completely, because it did not trend up all day yesterday but I had made a great profit so I sold. Good health and trading to you.
poli
Good for you Poli well done,
I am continuing to hold SOLF. The gap up open was closed during the day and SOLF finished near the HOD so I am OK with that action.
SOLF: Volume Spike; 11% > 20-adsv, Stock +8.07% ::) ::) >:D
Friday , May 16, 2008 11:05ET
This is the 5th VOLUME alert for SOLF in the past 7 calendar days.
Trading for Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (NASDAQ NM: SOLF) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 11:05 ET, the stock had already traded 3,983,966 shares via 10,484 trades. The cumulative volume is 11.29% above its 20-day average of 3,579,825. Normally the stock experiences around 11,831 individual trades per session.
So far, today's volume surge has caused a net rise in SOLF's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $19.960, up $1.490 (+8.07%).
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $11.740. The price has gained more than 70 percent since then.
Over the last 10 trading session SOLF has traded in a range between $13.050 and $18.790 and is currently trading 50.34% below its 52-week high of $40.190 set on January 03,2008 and 142.82% above its 52-week low of $8.220 from June 12,2007.
In the previous 3 sessions, SOLF trading has displayed a positive trend. Closing results have been as follows:
May 15, 2008 --- closed at $18.470 up $1.060 (+6.09%) on 9,168,500 shares
May 14, 2008 --- closed at $17.410 up $1.220 (+7.54%) on 10,369,000 shares
May 13, 2008 --- closed at $16.190 up $1.250 (+8.37%) on 9,071,000 shares
AussieTrader, Great job holding. At this point I wish I had held also. Can't waste to much time kicking myself. There is always another trade to help me forget about the mistakes. Good health and trading to you.
poli
We had 2 threads on SOLF here in the Watch List,
They have been merged... ;)
Looks like we have got a Head and Shoulders Bottom (reversal) Pattern
from looking at the chart.
Hey Poli, you had a trade strategy which you executed, that in my book is a good trade.
There is a speculative bubble on SOLF now as people are speculating earnings to be good (based on other Solar earnings). Volume was big Friday exactly what you want to see in a breakout. Not only that there was also huge volume and action in Call Options which confirms the bullish speculation - see article in this link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=agT89bOSQY3I&refer=news
I am sure Short covering is also a factor here (high short interest was another reason for my entry a few days back).
Wednesday they report earnings. My initial plan is to NOT sell today as this move is too strong, if I sell now I would be more than likley cutting my winner too quickly, 'Let your winners run' that is what is required. That said I am probably looking to take partial gains prior to Wednesday (that was my netry criteria after all) and carry a position over the earns date, not yet decided on that, but I have a while yet to decide.
Quote from: AussieTrader on May 19, 2008, 05:21:48 AM
Wednesday they report earnings. My initial plan is to NOT sell today as this move is too strong, if I sell now I would be more than likley cutting my winner too quickly, 'Let your winners run' that is what is required. That said I am probably looking to take partial gains prior to Wednesday (that was my netry criteria after all) and carry a position over the earns date, not yet decided on that, but I have a while yet to decide.
I sold 1/3rd of my position at $25.99
Huge volume and gap up open (which I sold 1/3rd position into). Gap filled during the day and closed with a big indecision candle.
I will look to sell another lot today and probably leave 1/2 my original position over earnings.
I have no idea how the market will react to earnings, speculation continues to say positive, but that's no guarantee
I didn't sell any more and held all remaining shares. I quite liked the days price action and felt comfortable having banked a 50% gain on 1/3rd to hold the rest:
Results are out and seem on face value very impressive. Pre market is up 16% around $29. I haven't decided my course of action just yet.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080521005552&newsLang=en
2008 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS
Net revenue was RMB 1.20 billion (US$ 171.0 million), an increase of 529% from the fourth quarter of 2007.
PV module shipments showed good momentum, reaching 40.3MW, which represented 40% growth over 4Q2007 and 517% from the first quarter last year.
Average selling price ("ASP") was strong at $4.07 and was significantly higher than the ASP of $3.85 in the fourth quarter of 2007. Spain and Germany saw particular pricing strength and the Company also benefited from the strong Euro during the period.
The geographic breakdown of net revenue was as follows: Spain 46%, Germany 36%, France 8%, Italy 6%, and Switzerland 4%. The company's customer base remained diversified with only two customers accounting for over 10% of sales.
Gross profit was RMB 197.4 million (US$ 28.2 million), an increase of 502% from the same quarter last year.
As the Company had guided, gross margins softened slightly to 16.5% due primarily to higher polysilicon and wafer costs.
Operating profit was RMB 144.9 million (US$ 20.7 million), a rise of over 3300% from the same quarter last year and 56% from 4Q2007. Operating margins increased to 12.1%, as the Company managed to control operating costs, while revenues grew substantially.
Interest expense rose to US$ 3.8 million due to increased bank borrowing and the Company's Convertible Senior Notes offering.
The Company recorded a currency gain of US$ 2.8 million as a result of the appreciation of the RMB relative to the U.S. Dollar.
Net income was RMB 107.0 million (US$ 15.3 million). The Company reported a small net loss in the comparable quarter in 2007.
Earnings per basic ADS were RMB 2.21 (US$ 0.32).
Well, there is profit taking (in a controlled way) and there is profit taking (in a last one out the door is the loser way) ;D
I sold another tranch on yesterdays open to leave me with 50% of my ioriginal position.
-22% on the day!! Hmmmmm what can I find:
Perhaps this is the culprit!!
Goldman Sachs downgrade http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1600545/- which is funny as they recently bought a huge number and have then it seems sold into strength before downgrading. Nothing unusual there that is what institutions do all the time.
Solars were subject to profit taking in general Thursday. Technically we have super volatility which could over-ride any expected support or sane price action. I will watch the open and decide action, I feel I may be selling into weakness, but let's see.
Goladman Sachs:
BOSTON, May 22, 2008 (Thomson Financial via COMTEX) -- SOLF | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Shares of Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. fell Thursday after the China-based solar cell maker was downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs, which said it expects to see rising downward pressure on the bottom line and growing financial pressure.
The stock opened 6.5% down at $24.70 on volume of 838,000 shares.
"We believe the 53.8% run-up in Solarfun's share price since last week is mainly fueled by anticipation of strong first-quarter earnings," analyst Cheryl Tang said in a note to clients.
"Though Solarfun raised 2008 shipment guidance and its market presence has been improving ... we believe that, given muted future top-line growth and looming margin and cash flow pressure, its premium valuation is unwarranted."
Tang said she expects to see rising downward pressure on the bottom line, as wafer price is likely to remain firm and opex will likely increase.
She also expects to see growing financial pressure given the rising capex requirement related to wafer capacity expansion.
Goldman Sachs raised its 2008-2010 earnings estimates by 28%, 21% and 25%, respectively, to reflect stronger first-quarter results. The firm increased its 12-month price target to $20 from $17.
Despite the high volatility SOLF has respected the support from the breakout day candle Fri 16th May. By high volatility SOLF based on past few days is moving around 10% of it's price in either direction.
When stocks become very volatile like that you either have to accept the risk or leave well alone. I accpt that risk as I have banked already a nice gain and will watch how it acts from here, I am looking for it to maintain above the breakout area ($19ish) and then continue upwards. If it can't do that I will be looking to sell.