Two biotech stocks that reported great results today on theri cancer drugs at the annual ASCO.
Look to see these gap uip on Monday morning. If tthinking about buying, wait till the gap settles down to get in.
Just let me leave the charts on CTIC and DNDN:
Dave,
After taking a closer look at the charts. Both of these are coming of their 52 week lows. Risky trades for now. News maybe short lived. Keep on watch list.
DNDN has an excellent story... long, complicated but interesting
little risk with the clinical data
some risk with production
first vaccine drug, ever
if apporved, it's a $40 stock
Quote from: stockpicker on June 14, 2005, 02:13:11 AM
--- my next call will be DNDN (riskier than AMLN, though), I'll write a few words about it tomorrow ---
Still awaiting your post on DNDN, but don't want to steal your well deserved thunder. The chart does looks primed for a break. Just needs a bit more volume. But it's as repressed as AMLN was and then some. I bought in today at $5.15. Hoping for an afternoon breakout.
Pretty sweet chart break. Still needs help to get through resistance at 5.35, but it looks like an oversold opportunity here. Looking for $6 short term.
Thanks for bringing this one up. I also bought in at $5.17 today. I think it looks primed
for a move as well.
DNDN's is a much riskier play than AMLN, however, the upside for this $5+change stock is around $40-50 if its leading drug candidate, Provenge, will be approved. Please find below a little background (soory, had no time to edit it) and I will be happy to hear your remarks (especially regarding the TA). Please also feel free to ask technical and business questions. I am following DNDN for quite a while so I think that I can handle most Qs.
Godd luck!
The Science
Dendreon's (DNDN) leading drug candidate is Provenge, a dendritic cell vaccine for late stage Prostate Cancer patients. It is working on stimulating the immune system to fight various cancers. Dendritic cell vaccines must be made individually for each patient. The process used to create them is involved and expensive: Scientists remove dendritic cells (from the patient's white blood) and make them reproduce rapidly, and then "teach" them to recognize cancer antigens by exposing them to the antigens in a dish, or by genetically modifying them so that they make their own.
Clinical Trials
DNDN has been running 3 different phase-3 trials: 9901 (completed), 9902A (top line results due this summer) and 9902B (final stage of enrolling). I will not get into the details of each and every trial (you can read a lot about them on DNDN's Yahoo MB, but if you REALLY want – please ask and I may make another post with these details). The bottom line is that the company did a BAD job in designing the trials. They were looking for the quick benefit – "time to progression" (TTP) – and failed (in 9901). However, later on, they realized that despite bad TTP results, Provenge provides excellent survival data – and the "gold standard" of the cancer drugs is survival, whereas TTP is a surrogate result (and there is a detailed scientific explanation why DNDN's TTP failed while the survival results were great). By combining the data of the 9901 and 9902A trials, DNDN is expected to show statistically significant survival results.
The Risks
1. One may assert that DNDN are trying to change the rules of the game. They have defined, together with the FDA, the primary and secondary end points. They have failed to reach them, but now they show that they actually improve THE MOST important criteria in cancer drugs – survival. Will the FDA accept this? Well, IMO, they will, since there are no other treatments for advanced stage prostate cancer.
2. Provenge is not a "one drug fits all patients" kind of drug since it is based on the patient own while blood cells – I foresee that the FDA's main concerns will be here and not regarding the clinical results.
3. There are no approved cancer vaccines – it is always hard to be the first one
The Potential
1. Being the only prostate cancer drug – this is a HUGE market and it is likely that doctors will use it beyond the limitations of the label
2. The company has over $200MM cash which is sufficient for nearly 2 years
3. The company has announced that 9902A results are going to be "similar" to 9901, hence, the pooled data will be sufficient for approval
4. Once approved, DNDN will be a $40+ stock, if not much more; if the FDA will not accept the drug, DNDN falls to around $1-2. At the current $5+change pps, the risk-reward is amazing.
5. Huge short position
Time Line
Results of the 9902A trial are going to be announced this summer (and if they are "similar to 9901" – DNDN jumps to the low teens; if they are "statistically significant as stand alone – DNDN jumps to around $20). It is going to take DNDN months to prepare the BLA for the FDA. Provenge has a fast-track status, so if the results are OK (and it is pretty much likely that the clinical results are great) – the FDA will likely to approve Provenge around mid-2006.
stockpicker 8),
A truly excellent post!(applauded) I believe the chart technicals will tell us what the results will show before they are out. Will keep a close watch.
To me this is a radical concept. To teach white cells how to fight for each individual patient. I hope they succeed. :)
Looking forward to more of your posts ;)
Stockpicker thanks for the post. I was waiting for that. I'll move my previous thread on DNDN here .. ref http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=672.0
I bought in large at $5.15. My kinda momo stock. My previous chart posted yesterday is here. The break over $5.35 chart resistance is crucial.
Tough hold now, stop set at $5.08. Resistance at $5.35 was tested but not broken. We'll give it one more shot. If it breaks $5.35 on volume, this one is golden.
I sold today +.05. I want to see this one break $5.35. When it does, i'll come back in full force.
Nice research on this one stockpicker ;)
I must applaud you !
This stock it's starting to look nice on a technical analysis approach, it maybe starting a reversal, and even its going down today, I have to put this one on my watch list.
regards and keep up the excellent quality of your posts !
thank you very much for the feedbacks and I apologize that DNDN didn't work for you instantly ... this is not a day-trade stock
I hold a core position and wait for this summer's pop once the trial results are out
I'll keep you posted whenever good (or bad) things happen here
BTW, a PR stating that "the 9902B is now open to all Gleason scores" is equivalent to stating that the restults of 9902A are excellent and that the company believes that an approval is likely - if you see this PR - BUY DNDN immediately.
DNDN lacked volume today but it put in a nice candle... def watching ;)
interesting... you call it "a nice candle" while I call it "fundamentals":
1. todat DNDN announced that they have finalized the enrolemnt to a new phase-3 trial for early stage prostate cancer, based on the same technology as their prior trials
2. the market size of the early stage is 4-5 times bigger than the late stage, and respresent over 200,000 patients (US only)
the price of Provenge, the drug, will be around $40,000/patient, so despite the higher-than-usuall production process costs, we are talking about a mkt potential of $8 billion a year. yes. without any side effects (this is NOT chemotherapy), so if approved, a 5-10 revenue multiply could be applied here... and a mkt cap of $40-60 BILLION... whereas today's DNDN's mkt cap is merely $350M... doesn't this risk/reward ratio deserves a few chips (NOT the farm, though, since there are risks here).
Feel free to ask fundamental Qs about DNDN - I follow this company for several months and I am very familiar with their various clinical studies.
5.35 $ resistiance is broken,
analyst opinion is o.k.:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=DNDN
I will start to accumulate
I explored and filtered my 11000 stocks database and got the DNDN chart as very interesting.
Then I've searched our website and found this excellent research piece by one of our members, stockpicker (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=693.msg3163#msg3163)
I have two descending lines broken so I don't need much more to buy DNDN at today's open:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1203;image)
Everyday I will analyze DNDN after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.
Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 133% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php). We have great traders in our community which take advantage of short term opportunities in stocks.
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Bought me in yesterday at 3,37
think this is ready to fly.
good luck to everyone.
Well, I got stopped out at 5.33 and that is all the loss I was willing to take considering large loss looming for GLGS. :( Will wait for next recommendation from David .
P
Pete ,
That was a pretty tight stop on DNDN. It's gonna fluctuate a little. Gotta give it just a bit more room IMO. Dave says again and again not to look at intra day. If you hadn't you would have been up 9cents from your stop already.
We all hate to lose but those winners make up for it
Glad I waited on this one.. will get in tommorrow morning.. Nice Up volume on the close
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DNDN&t=1d
Thanks basanlas, Now I feel that too but as a principle I put stop around 5% except in special cases (mostly bb stocks). I have been burned quite many times when I deviated from 5% limit.
Just curious, how do you place stops if not by percentage? Any ideas are welcome. ;D
Thanks,
P
Quote from: Pete on June 22, 2005, 06:00:15 PM
Thanks basanlas, Now I feel that too but as a principle I put stop around 5% except in special cases (mostly bb stocks). I have been burned quite many times when I deviated from 5% limit.
Just curious, how do you place stops if not by percentage? Any ideas are welcome. ;D
Thanks,
P
Pete,
I would be the wrong guy to ask about stops. I just rode FWHT from 17 down to 5 ish telling myself all the way down it couldn't get any worse. Well it did!!. And I wasn't very diversified to boot.
So I am learning ,like you I suppose, how to make the best out of the market.These guys do know there stuff so I am just watching and learning from the pros.
I think the problem with a 5% stop in the 3SF portfolio is that David looks at stocks that have just received a volume push and along the way many will sell to take profits. Good luck and may we all prosper.
Basanlas
I bought after a breakout and DNDN had a pullback. When something like this happens we must look at the nature of the pullback. How much did it pullback? How was the volume?
DNDN retraced to a close at the midpoint of the last white candle. Volume was half of the volume the stock had on the advance day. So DNDN had a perfectly normal and even desirable pullback, at least for now.
Given the market action I expect the stock to resume trend and push higher tomorrow, higher than $5.67.
Considering stops I believe a man who has gone through some pain in the market can set up an automatic stop loss rule like 5% or 10%, but an experienced speculator knows when to take a loss. I guess more than 20% is always a loss ... but just 5% stop is too tight for most stocks, at least the stocks covered here in the 3 Stocks on Fire portfolio. But one needs to set rules according to his trading style, so he feels confortable with them, confortable enough to obey the rules. It's harder to follow another man's rules ...
Good luck in trading :)
Quote from: Pete on June 22, 2005, 06:00:15 PM
Thanks basanlas, Now I feel that too but as a principle I put stop around 5% except in special cases (mostly bb stocks). I have been burned quite many times when I deviated from 5% limit.
Just curious, how do you place stops if not by percentage? Any ideas are welcome. ;D
Thanks,
P
Hey Pete, As David says you have to set and be comfortable with your own rules on stops. Have a look in the Stock Talking forum I started a thread there on money mangement / position size / stop loss. If you put in 5% stop on each trade you'll get stopped out too often and soon find your winners are not covering the losses, also with 5% blanket stop you are not taking into account where support on the chart is so intrday stop outs become more likely again. Funny as it sounds too tights stop policy whilst on face value saves your capital over time can help shrink it. It's a complex topic and everyones risk tolerance varies. I'll post some more on Stops etc in that thread later as it is something I focus a lot on in my money mangement part of my own trading rules.
Mike
Thanks Guys,
basablas I can relate to the FWHT case. I have had similar cases and wished I had put a 5% stop on those. It turns out I frequently get stopped out on the wrong ones (the one's I shouldn't).
Maybe I will do better in future. I am new and learning a lot everyday. I wish I was learning while my potfolio was growing.
Dave, I and everyone on the board., I am sure, appreciates your service and looks forward to your analysis and picks. Keep'm coming.
Aussie,You have hit the nail on the head. My portfolio has actually shrunk and after the analysis I find that I get out of the position too soon. I must check your thread on money management and see how I can do better. Somewhere else on the board I read that putting a stop at previous day low is another strategy. BTW: Was looking on the pins on the World Map and you seem to be holding the fort for the whole continent. More power to you Mate ;D
David,
Many thanks for highlighting my DNDN recommendation the other day and I am sorry that the first trading day didn't work well for you. However, DNDN is not a typical T-A play, there is a lot more to know about DNDN beyond the science and the daily price movements.
An important part of the story is DNDN's short interest. As you can see, there is a huge S.I. position of nearly 14 million shares and it is often manipulated by a couple of large hedge funds that specialize in shorting biotech stocks (and often make a lot of money since most small biotech eventually fail).
However, it is more likely than not that the Hedge Fund's bet against DNDN has been proven wrong, and it is becoming more and more difficult for them to cover the huge short position. A great example is the PR from Feb 17, 2005:
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/050217/dndn8-k.html
... and check the chart... huge trading volume and DNDN ended DOWN following such great PR ... check the day's volume and realize what happens when large Hedge Funsd, coupled with FALSE "analytic" report from Brean Murray, "explained" that ... the trial was unbalanced and that DNDN's CEO lies. Well, in the recent ASCO conference (last month) it was clearly proved that the 9901 was indeed balanced, so the only excuse the Shorts are using is that Gold, DNDN's CEO is a liar.
The way that DNDN behave is as follow: good news followed by a pps pop... then a steady decline, using a "red candle" technique which works well on relatively low-volume trading days. This will continue for the forseeable future UNTIL the company releases FIRM and final results and larger institutions will step in and start buying -- at this stage the 14 million shorts will not have the chance to manipulate the pps any more. Therefore, trading DNDN is not easy, it is one of those stocks that you need to hold and hope that the end-end results will be positive... the upside is huge, the likelihood is high... on the other hand, there is an inevitable risk here, so DNDN can only be a relative small portion of someone's portfolio.
Good luck to everyone
Quote from: stockpicker on June 23, 2005, 08:59:12 AM
...
An important part of the story is DNDN's short interest. As you can see, there is a huge S.I. position of nearly 14 million shares and it is often manipulated by a couple of large hedge funds that specialize in shorting biotech stocks (and often make a lot of money since most small biotech eventually fail)....
Stockpicker,
DO NOT forget, that this is a BIOTECH company we are talking about and til´now the shorts were right. I made my mistake in January: nice short interest, no bad news coming, good news on the way, company full of cash, nice technical picture and ... I lost 1/2 of my investment in 9 days. It hurt, it really hurt! And I still can not understand - why?
Well, now I'm long in DNDN since April 2005 @4.57 and even knowing all the news and technicals, I'm still prepared for bad surprises because this is a BIOTECH company!
[email protected] and do not count on huge short interest!
Good luck to all of You!
any updates dave?
DO NOT forget, that this is a BIOTECH company we are talking about and til´now the shorts were right. I made my mistake in January: nice short interest, no bad news coming, good news on the way, company full of cash, nice technical picture and ... I lost 1/2 of my investment in 9 days. It hurt, it really hurt! And I still can not understand - why?
Well, now I'm long in DNDN since April 2005 @4.57 and even knowing all the news and technicals, I'm still prepared for bad surprises because this is a BIOTECH company!
[email protected] and do not count on huge short interest!
Good luck to all of You!
Quote
Poiss,
I give you applause for your honesty and objectivity in sharing your story, especially about the shorts having been right. High short interest in a stock that is in a bearish trend, as DNDN has been, doesn' t mean that the shorts are wrong, and that the stock is going to rally. The shorts are right to short a bearish trend.
Where the shorts become wrong is when a stock has a upside breakout, the trend changes to bullish, and the stock continues to climb higher. Ouch for the shorts! :'(
In the current time-frame, looking at David's chart at the beginning of this thread, DNDN had a false upside breakout on Tuesday, and now is back below the trendline. After studying the chart for awhile, I'm now thinking that DNDN never broke out in the first place.
Here's why: Technical analysts have some disagreement about whether or not to use a semi-log chart. My response to that is, "Use what works."
From its May low, DNDN moved up about 2 points, but it was a 50% rally in just two weeks. That's huge! If a $40 stock rallied $2, that's only a 4% gain. Big difference. That alone suggests using a semi-log scale chart on DNDN, to put the dramatic percentage gain into perpespective.
What really argues for using the semi-log chart on DNDN is that if you connect the recent highs on David's chart (February 17 and May 16), you'll see that on Tuesday, June 21, DNDN rallied right up to that trendline, but failed to break out.
What's good about that, is that we now have a validated down trendline. You can connect any two data points on a chart, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's an important trendline. You need a third tag of a trendline to validate the trendline as being meaningful support or resistance. In this case, it was meaningful resistance.
If DNDN can print 5.68, above Tuesday's high, that's an upside breakout above a validated trendline. In addition to attracting the "breakout buyers," it aso could cause some shorts to scramble to cover some of those 14 million shares :o More buying. More fuel for a rally.
Regarding your 5.05 stop, you have a fabulous entry into DNDN from 4.57 in April, and you've got a nice chance here to recover some of your losses from January. DNDN could have another down day or two here. If you connect the last two lows on David's chart (May2...June 10), that up trendline comes in today, June 24, at about 4.96. DNDN could drop to that level to validate the up trendline, thereby stopping you out.
There's also a gap from May 4 at 4.75-4.80 (still above your entry price) that might get filled, but a fill of that gap also would stop you out.
YOUR money, YOUR decision, and I'm never going to tell anyone how to trade, but I think that you've got some upside potential here on a print of 5.68, and your risk is minimal or nothng if you stop the trade out at a break even.
Good luck with this trade. I hope that it turns into a nice winner for you.
stockpicker, Poiss and Melf Elf, you've made extremely good points on DNDN, I've applauded you three.
Melf Elf is right, the stock just validated a downtrend line in the semi-log scale chart. I leave the chart, the trading plan is obvious ... my timing could have been better, had I made a semi-log chart instead of a linear chart (one note to remind).
Sorry,
bought at 5,37 .
DNDN is teting the 50 SMA daily, as long as the price is above the 50SMA daily,
I´ll hold, when it falls through this line I´ll sell.
Thank you all for the good information and help,
DNDN is obove the daily SMA 50 and is testing it.
I studied the chart of the last years.
As long as the price is above this line, there is a chance for a breakout,
when the price is going down through this line, it´s probably to go down more,
and that´s my stop loss border.
hi guys,
i take it you are selling if DNDN drops below MA50 = 5.22?
do you give any leeway in the prices of all stocks due to the Dow drop due to oil at $60?
-rocket8
hi guys,
i take it you are selling if DNDN drops below MA50 = 5.22?
do you give any leeway in the prices of all stocks due to the Dow drop due to oil at $60?
-rocket8
Quote from: Rocket8 on June 24, 2005, 08:15:01 AM
...
i take it you are selling if DNDN drops below MA50 = 5.22?
...
-rocket8
There's no hidden messages ("stop@", "do as I do" etc.) in every post, just some opinions. If You are after profit like 3Stocksonfire portfolio has, You have to follow captain's (David) advice. And as much as I understand, his messages are extremely clear - "buy" or "sell". Just follow his posts. Thats it!
Hi rocket8,
This is just my strategy to sell after a daily close below the daily SMA50.
I´ll buy back after a close above the 50SMA.
What you are doing depends on you.
I put a 50 day simple moving average in the DNDN chart. Currently the stock is below that level, but I don't find it to be very significant. My plan is to wait for resolution on the perfect triangle pattern below.
The stock recovered quite a lot at the end of the session and rose slightly in after hours trade. On a candlestick basis it has made an hammer pattern which is a short term bullish reversal signal.
Holding the stock, thinking it will breakout on the upside, despite of the global market weakness.
Hi David,
in the chart I use the stock is still above the daily 50SMA, and above the weekly 10SMA.
The link:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=dndn&time=&freq=
You're right therman, I don't know why (since my settings are for SMA), but I was showing an exponential moving average on DNDN. I apologize (today's chart has the 50 day SMA and indeed the stock is above it)
Fool's had some comments today on DNDN, bullish comments: The Best Way to Predict the Future (http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05062707.htm?logvisit=y&source=estmarhln001999&npu=y&bounce=y&bounce2=y)
DNDN is still facing a technical dilemma, which line to break? I think it will be the descending line, given the fundamentals, but the market has, as always, the final word:
Thanks David and Stockpicker. Another great pick (that is from a fundamental point of view!)
As pointed out already this is a biotech stock with the risk that this entail but the reward seems to outshine the risk.
With a 300% increase in the survival rate and without the side effect of chemotherapy I feel confident that FDA will give it a thumps up.
As stockpicker has pointed out the market is tremendous!
Have a look at the Needham Biotechnology Conference it gives a good summary of the status of the different trials: http://investor.dendreon.com/medialist.cfm
DNDN rose 3% today and is getting closer and closer to breakout that descending trendline. Tomorrow the resistance will stand at $5.57 so a 2% rise will probably encourage some more bulls that are just waiting for the technical confirmation.
Go DNDN, go !
Quote from: David Randolph on June 28, 2005, 06:47:00 PM
DNDN rose 3% today and is getting closer and closer to breakout that descending trendline.
Mighty close, David!
Yesterday was DNDN's first close in 2005 above the Kumo (cloud) on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.
"Ichimoku translates as "a glance" or "one look." Kinko Hyo translates as "the table of equilibrium" or "balance table." Hence a chart displaying this indicator provides a broad look at the prices in a single view. You should be able to look at the chart and know at a glance whether to buy or sell."
The Senkou Spans define the parameters of the cloud. Currently, for DNDN, they are:
Senkou Span A (top of the cloud): $5.45
Senkou Span B: (bottom of the cloud)$5.39
DNDN closed at $5.48, with the Kumo (cloud) resting under it as support. Looks good. I also like MACD. It's above its signal line. It's been going sideways above zero, and ticked higher yesterday. It looks ready to go, like in early May on this chart:
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120026603187?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
Interesting post... but I must admit that I know nothing about Kumo, Ichimoku and Kinko Hyo.
However, there are rumors that DNDN's CEO is in a mid-west road show so I guess that a couple of institutes heard the story and decided to place a small bet here.
The big news are due sometimes this summer and the pps will break the support or the resistance line.
Good luck!
Quote from: stockpicker on June 29, 2005, 02:40:57 AM
Interesting post... but I must admit that I know nothing about Kumo, Ichimoku and Kinko Hyo.
Don't worry about it. Just something that you take a quick look at ("at a glance") to help you determine if a stock is a buy or a sell.
I give you overdue applause for your nice work on the fundamentals of DNDN, about which I knew nothing, so we're even. ;D
I was hoping to buy a breakout in DNDN today. It got to within a hair of the big down trendline (log chart), found resistance there again, then swooned into the close.
It's still within the pattern, but it's back below the Ichimoku. The fact that DNDN is getting so close to the apex of the triangle and hasn't broken out yet is a bit discouraging. If it's going to tag and validate the up trendline, it better hurry up and do it. MACD is about to make a bearish cross of its signal line.
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120026603187?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
This is the fourth time this descending trendline puts a cap on DNDN's advance. This time it produced a mighty ugly bearish engulfing candlestick. Decision time is coming for DNDN, choosing between a break of the ascending support or the descending resistance.
Of course, being long the stock I would like it to breakout on the upside, but the stock or the market doesn't care at all for what I like or dislike.
The trading plan is quite simple here too, sell if support is broken on close, hold for a bull run if it closes above resistance. For tomorrow support will be at $5.08 and resistance at $5.53.
DNDN's support today is @$5.10 and resistance $5.50. I think it will break on the upside, but I will respect the market and act accordingly.
There are a few stocks in my portfolio I wouldn't sell whatever the TA says (that is unless the fundamentals change!). Dendreon is one of them.
The potential is just so enormous that it outweighs the risks (read stockpickers post: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=693.0 )
The company has enough cash to finish the trials of its Cancer Vaccine and commercialize the product, so the only risk is if they can obtain FDA approval.
I stumbled over some figures for ImClone's recent results from a late-stage study, which showed its Erbitux drug is effective in preventing the spread of head and neck cancer (this is their main product): "After two years, 62 percent of the Erbitux-treated patients were still alive and 57 percent were still living after three years. Fifty-five percent of patients treated with radiation alone were alive after two years, and 44 percent were still living after three years".
Now compare that with DNDN's results from Provenge against prostate cancer: Phase 3 study showed a 300% increase after 36 months. As this is a vaccine against cancer you don't have the side effects of chemotherapy. In fact Provenge is very well tolerated by the patients. Without being an expert FDA approval seems to be a no-brainer. The experts will obviously say that this would be the first cancer vaccine to be approved so FDA will be very diligent and there are no guarantee for success. Motley Fool recently had an article which summed up the pro and cons nicely: http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05050304.htm
In addition to Provenge DNDN has also finalized a phase I study of Neuvenge against breast cancer which shows similar positive results but at a much earlier stage. Have a look a the investor presentation at the fourth annual Needham Biotechnology Conference:
Great research Michael, thanks :)
I have to stand with my strategy and trading plan, or I would be lost. So, time is running out on DNDN. The stock did hit support on Friday's session and recovered a bit from the lows.
Support for tomorrow (for a trader tomorrow is always the next trading day) will be at $5.12. Resistance will be $5.45.
Quote from: Michael on July 02, 2005, 04:00:24 AM
...There are a few stocks in my portfolio I wouldn't sell whatever the TA says (that is unless the fundamentals change!). Dendreon is one of them.
...The potential is just so enormous ...
...The company has enough cash ...
...I stumbled over some figures ...
Michael,
You are so right and correct, but as I mentioned before - DO NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH THIS STOCK, especially when it's from biotech sector!
In fact - almost all the good news we know now were known in December 2004 but it could not avoid the disaster in January 2005. For now we know, that:
(quoted from Yahoo MB, by caseystarman)
A. Provenge works.
B. Dendreon leads the vaccine immunotherapy parade with Provenge.
C. Their delivery cassette technology works and has seen us through all three Trial phases with D9901 which completed last October.
D. 9902a in a recent unblinding was tracking "similarly" to D9901 as we approached the last months of this second Provenge Phase III Trial.
E. A BLA filing is imminent and has been declared to be all but a certainty--which it likely is.
F. There is no other non-toxic PC vaccine that has been demonstrated to work in a Phase III Trial. The competition is years behind DNDN.
G. Pressure on the FDA is inherent in this situation. PC patients want this opportunity to extend their lives and will, IMO, be accommodated.Let's add some more facts:
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0,028
Short % of Float (as of 10-Jun-05): 23,10%
Merger rumours etc...
But all these facts are showing, that something is missing in short-term. Stock with all the values mentioned above should trade at 5-6 times higher and yet...
I do agree with Your statement if You are long in DNDN. In long term (for me - 3-5 years) this baby will grow enormously and this is a good price to accumulate. But at this very moment my suggestion
for 3SOF followers is to follow David's advice which is mostly TA-based (also take a look at Melf Elf's postings).
As a "long in DNDN" I'll give You an applaud for Your post, but in short term this stock may fall under 4 and also it may rise over 6. There's big difference for short-term players!
You are both right from a short-term technical point of view - and this is how I look at 95% of my stocks but not DNDN.
Here is my rationale: I believe Provenge will be approved. Try to look at the results from the study: after three years 27.3% of the patients with late stage cancer (high Gleason score) that was treated with Provenge was still alive. 100% of those receiving placebo had died. Now if you had Prostate Cancer would you put pressure on the FDA for a fast track approval? and why would FDA not give the approval - after all there is almost no side effects?
The people who probably are best to judge if Provenge will be approved are the people working for Dendreon and they have lately been buying stocks in the open market at prices higher than the close on Friday.
When Provenge is approved (or rather when the market realise that this will happen) DNDN will increase with 500% to 1000%. Now I don't know when this will happen. It could be results from the ongoing phase III study or a research report from Merrill Lynch, it could be an article in Wall Street journal. Who knows - but I have promised myself that I will not be out of the stock when it happens! I might suffer a 20% loss short time. I don't give a damn...
Some believes in Oil bubbles I believe in Provenge ;)
I thought I might add that in a similar scenario with a fast track childrens Leukemia drug from Genz and Bivn that the FDA passed the drug. We are talking late stage treatments for killer diseases. You cannot kill someone twice, so the FDA standards for success are much lower, and when the committee has to hear from families that have dying loved ones, it becomes a no brainer to approve the drug. They leave themselves open for very little criticism if they are wrong, unlike when they mess up on pain relief drugs.
This is not only educational, but also full of suspense. Better than "War of the Worlds." A close above 5.45 and I'm in.
Quote from: tommyt on July 02, 2005, 08:30:24 PM
This is not only educational, but also full of suspense. Better than "War of the Worlds." A close above 5.45 and I'm in.
I agree Tommyt ;) this is way better than "War of the Worlds" lol... although the beginning was awesome in the movie.
I applauded most of you guys posting on this thread. Thx as I am looking to take a position in this stock, eventually. I believe timing is everything and I will hope that before an announcement is made something will show up on T/A(volume and pattern). Really excellent posts recently by Michael, poiss and oicpecnoc.
goodluck ;D
Dendreon is actually in Wall Street Journal today even though it is not the article I am waiting for:
[$$] Investment Dartboard - at The Wall Street Journal Online
In the WSJ stock-picking contest for the next 6 months, no human contestant picked DNDN ... but the WSJ dart-thrower did.
"The darts fell on CTS (CTS; $12.29), an electronics manufacturer in Elkhart, Ind.; Seattle-based biotech firm Dendreon (DNDN; $5.23); Harman International (HAR; $81.36), a maker of audio equipment based in Washington, D.C.; shoe maker Stride Rite (SRR; $13.79) of Lexington, Mass.; United Natural Foods (UNFI; $30.37), an organic-food distributor in Dayville, Conn.; and hard-drive maker Western Digital (WDC; $13.42) of Lake Forest, Calif."
During the previous 6-month contest, the dart-thrower beat the stock pickers by 25%.
Maybe he's a good shot and was aiming for DNDN this time. :D
;D funny story on the WSJ, thanks Michael.
Well, DNDN barely closed above support today. But it did, so I continue to hold the stock. It is even better when a stock intraday goes below support, but then claws back near the close to finish above support. This will give short term power to the stock, as everyone who sold thinking support would be broke is sorry and wants to get back in.
Support for tomorrow is $5.12 and resistance is $5.43.
I don't like to analyze intraday data but it seems DNDN has a good chance today to break the downside trendline. Giving the fundamentals, we can expect the stock to move a lot higher from this breakout, if it happens.
I just hope it closes above $5.43 !
DNDN has printed 5.70 so far this morning, which is above the last two highs on this chart (data points #3 and #4). Looks good. It would be nice to see volume pick up today.
It was a close call yesterday but it seems like we have brooken the down side trend line today:
Any target price? ::)
Hi Netman,
If you look a little further down the page you will see that my target price is between $25 and $50 but I am in for the long run.
I am sure some of the technicians can give you a short time view.
Mike
Sure we can Michael, good call :)
At last we have found a winner for this fight. And it is the bull 8). We have a beautiful breakout of the descending trendline, and the technical target of this particular breakout is $8.10, a potential rise of 44% from yesterday's close.
Volume confirmed price developments. I'm holding on to DNDN.
DNDN closed yesterday right at the down trendline from the November, 2004 high (thin green down trendline on the chart below). It's taken that out to the upside today on improving volume.
Looks good, so far, trading at 5.81ASK...5.83 BID, up $0.21 on 638,000 shares traded. Yesterday's volume was 868,800.
What a beautiful chart DNDN has. According to our members, it's not only the chart, fundamentals are attractive too. So a speculator like me just has to hold on to this winning horse .
Added to my position.
$ 7 soon, IMO. ;)
Picked up some of DNDN at $5.63, and intend to hold on to it till $8.00+.
3 white candles show the new trend on DNDN. There's no doubt I'll continue to hold the stock.
DNDN went down a bit on profit taking earlier in the session but then it came back to close at the high of the day, which was the open too. Actually this behavior could mean we'll have some profit taking today (from candlesticks theory), but the short and medium term trend is bullish.
The technical target of the breakout is $8.10, I'm expecting to hold DNDN at least to that point.
There's no new technical information on DNDN. Volume is low but the stock is still slowly moving higher. It is possible profit taking takes the stock down a bit, but trying to sell high and buy low in a bullish trend will probably make a trader lose his position and prevent him from making a nice medium term profit.
Sold DNDN at 6.01, for a 13% gain. I don't like the two hangman candles followed by a black candle on the daily today. Hourly chart looks toppy. I'd like to buy it back at a lower price, but if I can't, that's okay.
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1121371297906?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=60&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
I also sold today.
Will watch closely to evaluate an entry.
Volume was getting weaker and weaker on DNDN so a pullback like the one we've had today was due. The technical target of the symmetrical triangle is $8.10. As long as the stock trades above the ascending trendline (the winner of a recent battle) I'll continue to believe DNDN will at least reach this target.
Perfectly normal profit taking on DNDN. On Friday the stock managed to make a small white body (this means it closed above the open) so perhaps profit taking is getting closer to an end and the bullish uptrend should resume.
I have wondered why DNDN has such a high short position. It seems to defy logic as the potential damage can be substantial when the 9902 data will be published (this summer!) Today skcotswonki posted the full background for the present PPS and it is really interesting reading so I hurry to quote it below:
QuoteDendreon reported final data on 9901 for time to disease progression that barely missed statistical significance, but a subset of the trial, those with Gleason scores of 7 and under were very significant. Dendreon redesigned a new trial, 9902B, to test for just this subset since the FDA doesn't approve drugs with retrospective analysis that wasn't established as part of the original protocol.
Dendreons arranged to have UBS underwrite a stock offering which was oversubscribed. Brean Murray's analyst Ashcroff put a buy on Dendreon in April with a $21 price target. The market, especially biotech stocks, slumped in the summer of 2004.
The plan was the company would seek FDA approval for Gleason scores of 7 and under and was negotiating in advanced talks with two potential partners. The partnership was never inked because Dendreon wanted too much of the U.S. market for itself. This was perceived as a negative by Wall Street.
UBS changed biotech analysts in the middle of 2004 and the new analyst, Maged Shendousomething, put a buy on Dendreon even though he had not previously followed it because the firm had a lot of Dendreon stock. This is a typical Wall Street practice.
Then, those of us who owned the stock were pumped on October 28, 2004, when the Company reported final survival data for 9901 showing 34% on Provenge were alive after 3 years vs only 11% on Placebo. The 4 1/2 month median survival was the longest extension of life in late stage AIPC patients ever seen in any published data for any form of Prostate Cancer treatment. The stock had slipped over the summer and rose back to $13. The company declared the price of a partnership had just gone way up.
Then a very unexpected and still mystifying thing happened while the Company was reporting on the data to analysts in a conference call (which some of us listened to). Dendreon released topline data and stated the full data would be released later at a scientific conference, fairly standard procedure in Biotech. The Brean Murray analyst Ashcroff, who had the highest price target on the Street, stood up and said Dendreon was hiding the data because they didn't design the trial correctly and, just like biotech company Genta, the trial arms were unbalanced and the sickest patients were crowded into the placebo arm. He basically called Gold a liar in front of everyone and placed a sell and $6 price target on the stock.
Maged of UBS, who didn't really know much about Dendreon and only had a buy because of the large following at the firm from the secondary offering, panicked and assumed Ashcrof knew something, so, he also downgraded the stock because of potentially poor data and placed a $6 price target on the stock.
I have never heard Ashcroff comment on Dendreon since. I think he is either incompetent, a self-promoting egomaniac, or was working for short interests all the time. You don't put a strong buy on a stock in April and accuse its CEO of lying in October after releasing breakthrough data.
In January, a press release was issued stating 9902A failed to meet significance for time to disease progression, even in patients with Gleason scores of 7 or less. However, the interim survival data was similar to the final 3 year and medium survival data seen in 9901. This is the trial we are waiting on this summer. The stock sank on the topline negative because of a poorly worded pres release that buried the good news in paragraph three, a journalistic no-no. No partner, no clear Gleason 7 and under pathway to the FDA, the stock was roasted. It didn't matter that TTDP is hard for Provenge because it takes a few weeks to work and this disease progresses within a few weeks. If Provenge was judged from time to infusion rather than randomization, Provenge achieved significance. But the trial design was established for time from randomization and not ime from when Provenge was administered, sometimes a two week gap or more. Fa
Dr Small reported great data on 9901 at the February ASCO Symposium that showed no imblance in the trial arms. In fact, the placebo participants were slightly healthier than the Provenge participants. Yet the damage had been done to Dendreons reputation primarily because Maged kept his negative stance. After ASCO he was clearly dumbfounded and stuned by the data and couldn't believe how good it was. But he said nothing in his reports and tried to save face. A few months later he upgraded Dendreon to neutral but kept the $6 price target since the stock was still under $6.
Failed expectations, poorly worded press releases, failed analysis by Wall Street, poor investor relations, and very powerful shorts are why Dendreon is stil $6.
But none of that matters longterm. Nor do positive comments matter. The only thing that will matter is Provenge and the 9902A data. Nothing anyone says or does will change the facts. And the truth is on the way.
In Ashcroff's last (as fare as I know) research report from January 2005 he says that any event related short squeeze would be transient and only serve as an opportune time for additional selling. (se below).
He most obviously know that this is not correct as an event related short squeeze would be set off by the FDA approval or likely approval of Provenge. So why is he lying? I think there is more to this story than what meet the eyes and I think I will profit from it ;D
today's early pop is probably related to the fact that DNDN was mentioned in CNBC in relation to MRK-GENR cancer vaccine partnership (as far as I know, GENR's vaccine is in a VERY early stage of its clinical trials)
Thanks Stockpicker,
That one had escaped my radar screen. Nice to see interest from "big guys". Dendreon is not looking for a partner at present but an approach from one of the large players could be interesting.
Geron's cancer vaccine is in PhaseI/II. We are hopefully close to file with FDA!
DNDN pushed higher yesterday on a generally weak market. I don't know if the stock is now ready to resume its bullish trend, but there's reason to believe the technical target of the breakout, at $8.10, will be reached over the coming weeks.
Holding DNDN.
Nothing new from the technical or fundamental side on DNDN. I'm holding at least until the technical target of the breakout at $8.10 is reached or, if I'm wrong and the stock closes below the blue asceding trendline.
DNDN continues to climb slowly, but momentum can pick up due to these news today:
Dendreon Completes Enrollment in Phase 3 PROTECT (P-11) Clinical Trial of Provenge in Early Stage Prostate Cancer (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BBE013C0A%2DC382%2D475F%2DAEB2%2D6978849CB55C%7D)
(stockpicker warned me this news is one month old, but an interesting read anyway, so I'll leave it. No change in the plan of holding DNDN)
David, this news is from June 21 (but I will take a pop anyday... ;)
Lol, I misunderstood the date, thanks stockpicker ;D
I'll edit the post ...
On FIRE !
Nice pick, David.
-Jeff-
really on FIRE:
Dendreon's Second Randomized Phase 3 D9902A Trial Shows Provenge Extends Survival in Patients With Advanced Prostate Cancer
Thursday July 21, 9:35 am ET
-- Company to Host Conference Call Today at 11:00 a.m. ET --
SEATTLE, July 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN - News) today announced that the analysis of the final three-year survival data of its second Phase 3 study (D9902A) of Provenge®, the Company's investigational active immunotherapy for the treatment of prostate cancer, showed a survival benefit in men with advanced prostate cancer who were treated with Provenge. Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed non-skin cancer in the United States and the third most common cancer worldwide. The Company will host a conference call today at 11:00 a.m. ET.
In the D9902A study, the three-year final survival analysis in the intent-to-treat population of the double-blind, placebo-controlled study of Provenge in 98 men with asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent (hormone-refractory) prostate cancer showed a 20 percent improvement in median survival for patients who were randomized to receive Provenge compared to placebo. In addition, at the three-year final follow up, the percentage of patients alive in the Provenge-treated group was substantially greater than the percentage of patients alive who received placebo. As expected, the results from this study did not meet the criteria for statistical significance based on a log rank test. A secondary analysis using a Cox multivariate regression analysis of overall survival, which adjusts for prognostic factors known to influence survival, met the criteria for statistical significance. The hazard ratio observed in this analysis was similar to that seen in the Company's first Phase 3 study (D9901).
As reported earlier this year, the final three-year follow up of the D9901 study of Provenge in 127 men with asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer showed a median survival benefit of 21 percent or 4.5 months and a three-fold improvement in survival at 36 months (p-value = 0.01; hazard ratio = 1.7). This hazard ratio implies that patients who received placebo have a 70 percent greater relative risk of dying than patients who received Provenge.
A supplemental analysis that examined pooled survival data from the two companion Phase 3 clinical studies (D9901 and D9902A) showed a statistically significant survival benefit in the overall intent-to-treat population of 225 patients. In this analysis, a 23 percent increase in median survival was seen in patients randomized to receive Provenge compared to placebo. In addition, at the three-year final follow up, the percentage of patients alive in the Provenge-treated group was substantially greater than the percentage of patients alive who received placebo. In the combined D9901 and D9902A analysis, a Cox multivariate regression analysis of overall survival also met the criteria for statistical significance.
Further analyses of the data are ongoing and will be submitted for presentation at an upcoming medical meeting.
As in previous studies, Provenge was well tolerated with the most common adverse events reported being fever and chills lasting for one to two days.
"We believe the data from this second study support what we saw in the first Phase 3 trial -- that Provenge prolongs survival in men with advanced prostate cancer," said Mitchell H. Gold, M.D., Dendreon's president and chief executive officer. "We plan to share all of the data collected to date from our clinical studies of Provenge with the FDA to determine the most efficient pathway for bringing Provenge to market."
"The results of this trial support our understanding of the potential utility of Provenge in the treatment of patients with advanced prostate cancer," said Celestia Higano, M.D., director and associate professor of the GU oncology clinical research group at the University of Washington, Seattle and a principal investigator in the D9902A study. "The survival benefit observed in these studies combined with a favorable safety profile holds promise for the many prostate cancer patients who have few appealing treatment options available to them."
More than one million men in the United States have prostate cancer, with an estimated 220,000 new cases of prostate cancer diagnosed each year. More than 30,000 men die each year from the disease.
Study Details
The study, known as D9902A, is a double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 3 trial designed to evaluate Provenge in men with asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer. D9902A was originally designed to be the companion study to Dendreon's completed first Phase 3 study D9901. The D9902A study was stopped in 2002 after 98 patients were enrolled when the analysis of D9901 showed that no statistically significant benefit in time to disease progression had been observed in the overall group, but that a benefit was seen in the subgroup of patients with Gleason scores of seven and less. In January 2005, the Company announced that the primary endpoint of time to disease progression in D9902A did not show a statistically significant delay in the overall group or in the Gleason score subgroups. Three-year follow up of patients for survival was the secondary endpoint of the D9902A study.
About Provenge
Provenge is designed to stimulate a patient's immune system against prostate cancer. It is developed through Dendreon's proprietary Antigen Delivery Cassette(TM) technology, which utilizes a recombinant form of an antigen found in 95 percent of prostate cancers, prostatic acid phosphatase (PAP).
Provenge is being further evaluated in an ongoing Phase 3 study in asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer (D9902B). It is also being evaluated in a Phase 3 trial, known as PROTECT or P-11, in men with early stage prostate cancer.
Conference Call
LIVE Access on July 21, 2005, 8:00 a.m. PT; 11:00 p.m. ET:
-- Phone 800-240-8621 (domestic) or +1-312-205-0055 (international)
-- Webcast connection through the Dendreon website at www.dendreon.com in
the Investors/Webcast section.
REPLAY Access:
-- Phone replay, available for 3 days by calling 888-203-1112 (domestic)
or +1-719-457-0820 (international); Passcode: 5910894
-- Webcast replay is available for 90 days from the Dendreon website at
www.dendreon.com in the Investors/Webcast section.
:) :)
bought DNDN for an intraday move..crazy move this morning...maybe a move like MNTA..great results! check it out 8)
I know g , I bought some a little after you did and already up .20
11 am is the CC about the news...could really move into that >:D
Hi all ... a first time poster ... this site is great. I have been in and out of DNDN a couple of times and following for several months. I had pieced together about the same story as in Michael's post from a few days ago. I am not much of a technician, but the fundamental story sounded good, every insider was buying (there was a corporate resolution requiring ownership ... to me that is a board trying to send a signal to the market), and a vociferous group of shorts on message boards with 23% of the float sold short. The book on the company is $3 and almost all of it is cash. Unlike so many biotechs, DNDN seems to have kept marketing rights. All told ... not a ton of risk, and a really staggering upside speculation. Today's good news confirmed exactly what DNDN has been saying all along ... revamping the tests per FDA guidance produces one type of statistical significance but not another. If this drug goes forward ... prostate cancer is common and a growing population of elderly folks ... the various estimates are all huge on market potential (pick one - all are big numbers). I jumped in and doubled my position with the market news this morning. I am appreciative of seeing the confirming technical analysis and astute observations on this board.
tat would be nice. Its been a rough week for me. We all have them once and while. I could use a few xtra k'sss in the ole bank account to close the week.
Thanks Big dog and la-onda,
This is yet another step up the FDA approval ladder. For each step you will see a nice increase in the PPS but you will also see shorts making all kind of tricks to limit the damage.
Be prepared for unfunded rumours, pseudo scintific interpretation of phase III results etc. etc.
The truth of the matter is that Provenge significantly extend the life for men with prostrate cancer and that it has very few sideeffects (a couple of days fever and chills)
- I have still not seen any rational reason why Provenge would not receive FDA approval
- I have still not seen any rational reason why the PPS shouldn't be between 500% to 1000% higher than today after approval.
I know that when you put figures as high as this, people tend not to take them serious but try to read this thread from the start and also stockpickers thread on the same issue and you might reach the same conclusion.
Mike
Once 7$ is breached, there is NO RESISTANCE till 10.25$. What else one can want from a fundamental and technical setup like this :)
Well Stocky, I bought it right back on the break of $7 again. Gonna let it run now it is attacking resistance.
Thanks for your posts :D
What a beautiful white candle we got on DNDN didn't we?
Volume was above average too. The move was linked to these news: Dendreon's Second Randomized Phase 3 D9902A Trial Shows Provenge Extends Survival in Patients With Advanced Prostate Cancer (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=180614&guid=%7B731EC26E%2DEC6D%2D4AA6%2D80B0%2DDC3F68C8C9B4%7D&symb=)
I guess Michael is right, speculation will be that Provenge will receive FDA approval in the future, and it probably will. As said in the title of this post, DNDN has the right chart and the right fundamentals.
I will look to take profits at the technical target of the breakout at $8.10 (a potential 44% profit from my buying price - and I was in the red for some days before the advance phase took off), but I'll keep the stock under surveillance, because I will probably buy it back with a new technical setup and trading plan.
QuoteUBS cut biotech company Dendreon Corp. to reduce from buy, saying it is likely that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will require a confirmatory trial for Provenge and thus delay the product launch to the first quarter of 2008 from the first quarter of 2007.
Hmmmm..... I think they are dead wrong and am wondering what is behind the downgrad. I do unfortunately not have the same cloud as UBS (would be nice!) so I expect DNDN to give back some of yesterday's gain. :'(
It looks like some guys missed yesterday's run up and need a chance to get in ... nothing to be worried about, I think this research is nonsense.
The market will tell, if the stock closes above the midpoint of yesterday's body ($6.62) you can be sure that someone is accumulating DNDN and the stock will shot up higher again in the short term.
What these guys at UBS are saying is that the market is wrong. But the market is never wrong and always knows better.
LOL the release should read:
UBS pissed off that they hadn't accumulated enough stock below $7 as they 'know' the real value is around $10.
You have to laugh at this stock game when BS downgrades like this actually impact the price, personally I think this makes it more of a buy as UBS want retail customers to sell their shares to them ;D
Just bought Pre-Market $ 6.18 and 6.20 on the over reaction.
:o
-Jeff-
Nice buy Jeff
hopefully who ever wanted to reduce reduced already pre market .always a bug around to ruin the party
Quote from: AussieTrader on July 22, 2005, 07:56:20 AM
LOL the release should read:
UBS pissed off that they hadn't accumulated enough stock below $7 as they 'know' the real value is around $10.
You have to laugh at this stock game when BS downgrades like this actually impact the price, personally I think this makes it more of a buy as UBS want retail customers to sell their shares to them ;D
absolutely agreed! I mean man... they are stretching on this one.
Quote"UBS cut biotech company Dendreon Corp. to reduce from buy, saying it is likely that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will require a confirmatory trial for Provenge and thus delay the product launch to the first quarter of 2008 from the first quarter of 2007."
?
So when this doesn't happen they are just gonna say, "Oh woops, I guess we were wrong." .. no accountability. Someone needs to take statistics on this sort of thing.
>:( I better not meet someone from UBS today.
hmm...noticed that the volume is light...
Hi all, I decided to jump in at 6.10. Does the sharp drop scare anyone here? Are the expectations still $8 or so? Thanks in advance for any words of wisdom. -RJ
ok trying to read the tape (like Livermore ;))...someone is buying up DNDN like mad...nice supply @ 6.20 I say we move on up from here >:D
Its UBS buying ;D
I bought more at 6.22 and trying to get some Jan '07 LEAPS.
This is a gift given to us by the kind UBS ANALyst who has been against DNDN for a long long time. I listened to yesterday's conference call and this jerk, Maged "something", was the only analyst who didn't congratulate DNDN for the nice results
Read my first report about DNDN (as well as Michael's analysis) and realize why $6-and-change is a steal. Once approved, this is a $30-50 stock, and yesterday's results increase the likelihood of approval furthermore. This is not a sure bet, but the chances are MUCH higher than 50%. However, any prudent investor will not hold more than 5% of his portfolio in this little company (though with some LEAPS I do hold more...)
::) Finally log in this morning, and there is DNDN in the pits, and once again (per Michael's long post of a few days ago), UBS is in the middle of it again. Should have known and waited to buy until that charade played out. Interesting that as the scandral who decided to downgrade, during the Q&A session during yesterday's conference call with DNDN, UBS was strangely silent, asking only:
Magnate Shoboda/UBS
Q -- Status of enrollment in 9902B study?
Tough study to enroll due to Gleason score of less than seven. Will announce when complete, but in the meantime, hope to open it up to all Gleason scores now that we are confident survivor benefit applies to all.
Looking good.
Large block buying coming in.
People over react to news and it presents a Buying opportunity for a day trade.
But will have to see how people react next week with the possible new time frame.
Good Luck.
-Jeff-
Quote from: AussieTrader on July 22, 2005, 07:56:20 AM
LOL the release should read:
UBS pissed off that they hadn't accumulated enough stock below $7 as they 'know' the real value is around $10.
You have to laugh at this stock game when BS downgrades like this actually impact the price, personally I think this makes it more of a buy as UBS want retail customers to sell their shares to them ;D
Quote from: eliteG on July 22, 2005, 09:22:06 AM
absolutely agreed! I mean man... they are stretching on this one.
Quote"UBS cut biotech company Dendreon Corp. to reduce from buy, saying it is likely that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will require a confirmatory trial for Provenge and thus delay the product launch to the first quarter of 2008 from the first quarter of 2007."
?
So when this doesn't happen they are just gonna say, "Oh woops, I guess we were wrong." .. no accountability. Someone needs to take statistics on this sort of thing.
>:( I better not meet someone from UBS today.
hmm...noticed that the volume is light...
Lack of accountability is the key here! Maged Shenouda has a spectacular record of getting recommendations wrong:
GLFD: neutral rating on March 28 at around 2.2 it is since up 50% on a buy out offer
ARRY: buy on February at around 8.5 it is since down 15% to 7.25
DNDN: Neutral on March 15 at around 5.8 it is since up 8% to 6.27
LGNDE: Neutral on March 31 at around 6.7 it is since up 20% to 8.09
His star pick is ICOS: BUY on March 28 at around 22.5 it is since up 1.8% (Not a stellar performance especially as he had to make 23 recommendation since January to achieve this increase!!!)
His reduce recommendation on DNDN is indeed very strange:
Quote"Importantly, from our perspective, neither trial has met statistical significance on the primary efficacy endpoint of time to disease progression," Shenouda told investors in the note, and suggested that his revised launch timeline may be optimistic if the agency requires a new trial that has to track patients' survival rates over three years.
Anybody who have followed DNDN have known for the last 6 month that the phaseIII study wouldn't support time to disease progression endpoint. The time to disase progression is a surrogate for the more important endpoint which is survival rate and here the result is statistical signifcant.
Why suddently use something everybody already knew as an excuse to downgrade the stock.....
Quote from: Michael on July 21, 2005, 10:51:56 AM
This is yet another step up the FDA approval ladder. For each step you will see a nice increase in the PPS but you will also see shorts making all kind of tricks to limit the damage.
Be prepared for unfunded rumours, pseudo scintific interpretation of phase III results etc. etc.
Quote from: Michael on July 23, 2005, 03:28:09 AM
Lack of accountability is the key here! Maged Shenouda has a spectacular record of getting recommendations wrong:
GLFD: neutral rating on March 28 at around 2.2 it is since up 50% on a buy out offer......
As always there are more to the story than what meet the eyes. So here we go:
You are probably shocked and surprised that such a distinctive analyst as Maged Shenouda could be so wrong on GLFD after all his clients missed a profit of 50%.
Well maybe they didn't at least we know that UBS didn't miss any profit!
Guilford is being bought by MGI Pharma at a premium of 55.6%. So somebody must have advised them that Guilford was worth much more than the market cap of the company. I am sure you are thinking this couldn't be UBS after all they had just given Guilford a neutral rating.
Wrong of course it was UBS. (Do you really believe that there is a wall between the analysts and the rest of the banks organization?)
If you read MGI's SEC filing of the AGREEMENT AND PLAN OF MERGER you will read:
QuoteSection 3.22 Opinion of Financial Advisor. The Board of Directors of the Company has received the opinion of UBS Securities LLC to the effect that, as of the date of such opinion, the Merger Consideration is fair from a financial point of view to the holders of Company Common Stock, a complete copy of which opinion will be made available to Parent solely for informational purposes as soon as practicable after the date of this Agreement.
Now why would UBS do something like this. Well maybe there is a clue here:
QuoteSection 3.21 Brokers and Other Advisors. No broker, investment banker, financial advisor or other person, other than UBS Securities LLC, is entitled to any broker's, finder's, financial advisor's or other similar fee or commission, or the reimbursement of expenses, in connection with the transactions contemplated by this Agreement based upon arrangements made by or on behalf of the Company or its Subsidiaries.
You will probably ask what this has to do with the downgrade of DNDN!
Hmmmm..... dig deeper and you will find.
Quote from: Michael on July 17, 2005, 08:55:32 AM
Dendreons arranged to have UBS underwrite a stock offering which was oversubscribed. ........The plan was the company would seek FDA approval for Gleason scores of 7 and under and was negotiating in advanced talks with two potential partners. The partnership was never inked because Dendreon wanted too much of the U.S. market for itself. This was perceived as a negative by Wall Street.
So UBS was underwriter for Dendreon and they were involved in two buy-out offers. So not only do they have detailed knowledge about the company but they also know who might be interested in buying them. (somehow this story reminds me about Guilford!)
The world of analysts is interesting. I sometimes have the feeling that what interests them the least is the fundamentals of the companies. It is therefore surprising that they still are able to make investors panick selling their shares just by releasing a recommendation with a short write up when there is so much information available for the investor to make their own analysis.
Now let me make it absolutely clear that I have no proof whatsoever that anything wrong have happened in the case of UBS and Guilford or UBS and Dendreon. I just thought it might be relevant information if you want to have the full picture.
Sorry to clutter the board with all this fundamental stuff :-\
Michael,
GREAT GREAT call!
A-P-P-L-A-U-D
[/font]
Can it get any uglier from UBS' perspective?
Thanks a lot Stockpicker! (nice grafix!)
My runing rate is 5 smite points per day so every applauds is appreciated. I have to run fast just to stay at the same place ???
I most really have pissed off somebody on the board. Just strange they don't tell why - that at least would help me improve my writting!
Mike
Hmmm.... Would UBS really be involved in manipulation of stocks? We all know that Banks have a very high business ethics.
Wrong again! UBS has admitted to be lying, having criminal conduct. They have been found guilty of felony, making false statements, violated SEC regulation etc. etc. etc.
Just try to see what UBS International Inc has admitted to in their SEC disclosure:
A. In the past ten years, have you or any advisory affiliate:
(1) been convicted of or plead guilty or nolo contendere ("no contest") in a domestic, foreign, or military court to any felony? YES
(2) been charged with any felony? YES
B. In the past ten years, have you or any advisory affiliate:
(1) been convicted of or plead guilty or nolo contendere ("no contest") in a domestic, foreign, or military court to a misdemeanor involving: investments or an investment-related business, or any fraud, false statements, or omissions, wrongful taking of property, bribery, perjury, forgery, counterfeiting, extortion, or a conspiracy to commit any of these offenses? YES
C. Has the SEC or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ever:
(1) found you or any advisory affiliate to have made a false statement or omission? YES
(2) found you or any advisory affiliate to have been involved in a violation of SEC or CFTC regulations or statutes? YES
(3) found you or any advisory affiliate to have been a cause of an investment-related business having its authorization to do business denied, suspended, revoked, or restricted? NO
(4) entered an order against you or any advisory affiliate in connection with investment-related activity? YES
(5) imposed a civil money penalty on you or any advisory affiliate, or ordered you or any advisory affiliate to cease and desist from any activity? YES
D. Has any other federal regulatory agency, any state regulatory agency, or any foreign financial regulatory authority:
(1) ever found you or any advisory affiliate to have made a false statement or omission, or been dishonest, unfair, or unethical? YES
(2) ever found you or any advisory affiliate to have been involved in a violation of investment-related regulations or statutes? YES
(3) ever found you or any advisory affiliate to have been a cause of an investment-related business having its authorization to do business denied, suspended, revoked, or restricted? NO
(4) in the past ten years, entered an order against you or any advisory affiliate in connection with an investment-related activity? YES
(5) ever denied, suspended, or revoked your or any advisory affiliate's registration or license, or otherwise prevented you or any advisory affiliate, by order, from associating with an investment-related business or restricted your or any advisory affiliate's activity? YES
The list goes on. You can read the whole disclosure here:
http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/IAPD/Content/ViewForm/ADV/Sections/iapd_AdvDisciplinarySection.aspx
The latest case against UBS is from December when they received notice from SEC notifying them that the SEC staff is considering recommending that the SEC bring civil enforcement proceedings against UBS for possible violations of federal securities laws arising from work performed by UBS's Investment Bank for HealthSouth Corp., a US healthcare company.
And this is the kind of company that people listen to when they make investments decision. For Christ sake I wouldn't even invite them to a dinner party - they might run off with the silverware!
HI, Michael!
If I was a bank or investment comp. I'd make sure to be on good terms with you ;D
When you dig, you DIG DEEP!
Maybe one could use UBS' recommandations inverted?
Buy, when they advocate sell. :D
Sell, when they advocate buy. :(
I'll take a look at these guys too.
Thanks for your hard work!
APPLAUSE!
Cheers. ;)
Again mike, applaud for deep trench analysis. :)
Great info Michael. A real interesting read thanks.
I don't know what effect the UBS call will have, but those of you who are long DNDN might enjoy this story.
In late April of this year, the Broker/Dealer Index (XBD) had hit the downside target off a Double Top, so I was looking for signs of a bottom. The P/E ratios in the brokers looked very good. Even E-Trade (ET) had a P/E of only 12. Very short-term, it looked like the index was trying to Double Bottom for some kind of rally.
On May 2, UBS came out and downgraded three of the big brokers. The XBD tanked that day on the call, and it fell to a new low for 2005. Here's how the Broker/Dealers did after the UBS call:
michel, applaud! :D
enojoyed your posts, as always!
Thanks and have a good weekend folks!
Thanks for the support. That really gives confidence for next week's epic battle between good and evil :D
It will be an interesting week for DNDN. Even though UBS certainly can move shares the long-term effect seem to wear out as time pass (as Melf Elf showed nicely!)
I personally believe UBS has a hidden agenda but we will see. Compared to some of you tech guys I really go into the details when I commit my money, which is the result of a lot of blood, sweat and tears (except the money i have earned following David's recommendation off course 8)). So when somebody says that I am wrong I want to understand why. Sometimes they are right, sometimes fundamentals change and the immediate ruthless response is to sell the shares. But sometimes they are wrong and in the case of DNDN everything including the latest announcement support the long case which has repeatedly been put forward in this thread. So why sell?
For now we can look forward to the detailed information about the phase III results. There might be some volatility on Monday in both directions but I don't expect the stock to make a real move to the upside before we have more information.
I have used today to look into Broadband, VoIP and IPTV. One of the esteemed members of 3SOF emailed some interesting picks today but I haven't made my mind up yet!
Let me finish by showing a nice picture of Maged Shenouda. Before he started his career as analyst he was a sales representative for Abbott Labs. I assume he is using his sales experience to earn money from his recommendations. I can already hear the sales pitch: I have a very good company for you and I can sell it cheap if you decide fast. Buy now and I can offer you 50% discount ::)
Spectacular research by Michael on DNDN, thanks a lot ! :D
This downgrade from UBS was so strange that I feel we should go back to some basics about stock speculation:
1) The market is always right
2) The market always knows better
3) Nothing new ever occurs in the market
4) If the stock is up on strong volume usually it is because good news is coming, not bad.
5) If bad news comes on the middle of a strong uptrend probably those bad news are not relevant and a speculator should buy on bad news in an uptrend.
In light of this downgrade from UBS, and reading Michael's analysis on the subject, I will make a change in my trading plan for DNDN:
1) Sell if the stock ever closes below the ascending blue trendline.
2) Sell with a profit at the close of a gap around $10.26
My reasoning for «upgrading» DNDN is that if someone has the motivation to take it down, and lose reputation because of that wrong call, it probably is because there's a lot of money to be made on the long side ;)
Don't tell me this guy was right on DNDN ???:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2714;image)
I don't think so, but the market knows better. The market will tell us who was right. I see support coming only at around $5.40 on DNDN, so I'm ready to take another 10% punch with a smile on my face :)
I will maintain my trading plan whatever happens:
1) Sell with a small loss if we ever get a close below the blue ascending trendline
2) Sell with a big profit at the close of a gap, at $10.26
Hay Dave heres the thing with this stock dnd ,,,, i get to watching the whole show yesterday,, and it drops, a little more ,and with lots of green ticks you know like hay this guy should be moving up a bit,, some more i think thats weird this stock has been in a pretty good trend. Then lots of up ticks but really not to many buyers,, then the stock goes up ,, around two oclock or so i think , and up 8 cents a share. Then closes the day down. Do you ever get a feel for something , like someone just played a game all day and tried to see if they could make the trend go the opposite way. At least thats my take on watching the stock the last few days, i did not sell the stock when up i have a good price , and the market pays if you get a stock at a good price, my gut tells me this one will bust up,,, but you know how that goes the market is never wrong.
Thanks for your message agatto2, I believe you're right.
DNDN is coming down to support, as I suspected. It's the reaction to that support that will determine the next big move, up or down. The ascending trendline today will come at $5.41. If the stock manages to rise without touching support, that's even better .... it's a good thing when bulls compete between themselves to buy and no one is able to buy at the technical support.
Trade the plan on DNDN.
JUST FOR THE RECORD: From Harry Newton's Column-
How good are securities analysts? Most are not very good. Today's New York Times has a piece today:
An Analyst Receives a Time Out From Altera
For the 25 years that Tad LaFountain has been a technology stock analyst on Wall Street, he has often written negatively about the strategies or prospects of the companies he followed. Not once did a company retaliate, he said.
Until now.
Mr. LaFountain, who follows 21 semiconductor companies at Wells Fargo Securities in New York, said yesterday that he was dropping coverage of the Altera Corporation, an industry giant, because its executives had told him they would not take his phone calls, would not let him ask questions on analyst conference calls and would no longer give him the information he needed to analyze its business.
Why the cold shoulder? According to Mr. LaFountain, the company objected to his negative opinion on Altera stock. Before he withdrew his coverage, Mr. LaFountain had a sell rating on Altera shares.
Writing his final report on the company yesterday, Mr. LaFountain said he expected to replace Altera in his list of companies with one "that takes a more appropriate view of the role of independent investment research."
Out of the 21 semiconductor companies Mr. LaFountain follows, he has buy ratings on seven, hold ratings on nine and sell ratings on five....
In dropping coverage on Altera, Mr. LaFountain forecast a price target of $14 for the stock. It closed yesterday at $22.45.
Yup. You got it. The stock is way above his target and lately rising.
QuoteIn dropping coverage on Altera, Mr. LaFountain forecast a price target of $14 for the stock. It closed yesterday at $22.45.
Snowcat,
That downgrade looks like the Wall Street equivalent of a 3 SOF "smite." ;D
Thanks for your posts, interesting info.
DNDN is coming down to support, as suspected. Bulls should gather all strength to support DNDN where it should be supported, $5.43 for today. Expect a strong bounce if this value is reached.
If the stock ever closes below this ascending line, regardless of fundamentals or opinions, I'll be forced by discipline to sell the stock.
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 14, 2005, 04:05:43 PM
Sold DNDN at 6.01, for a 13% gain. I don't like the two hangman candles followed
by a black candle on the daily today. Hourly chart looks toppy.
I'd like to buy it back at a lower price, but if I can't, that's okay.
When DNDN took off to $7 after I sold two weeks ago, I figured that I wouldn't get a chance to get back in, but the UBS downgrade has presented an opportunity to re-enter.
Possible support is at the 50DMA, 6.50. The high 6.30s should be very good support. I show the up trendline a little lower than David, at about 5.37, but's it's difficult for us to get an exact reading on a log chart.
DNDN is on my buy list if I can get it for 5.37 - 5.50, for a low-risk trade. I agree with David; I wouldn't want to own DNDN if that up trendline gets broken on a closing basis.
why not sell and re-enter if you expect the stock to go down to the trendline?
(this is no cricism.. just a real thing I'm wondering about)
The trend is still bullish nikao, and when the trend is bullish a big rally can come out of nothing. It is a risky thing to sell and try to buy a bit lower, you might lose your position and then have to chase the stock higher.
Keep the stock as long as it remains bullish, you never know when bulls will strike, it is possible they do it without notice or without a support being reached.
When a stock is very, very bullish it happens many times you can't buy at support, because there are too many buyers there and they start competing for the shares, putting up their bids.
For example, look at VPHM. I would like to buy it at support, but the stock doesn't come down to the technical support, demand is too strong !
Quote from: David Randolph on July 28, 2005, 06:42:38 AM
The trend is still bullish nikao, and when the trend is bullish a big rally can come out of nothing. It is a risky thing to sell and try to buy a bit lower, you might lose your position and then have to chase the stock higher.
Keep the stock as long as it remains bullish, you never know when bulls will strike, it is possible they do it without notice or without a support being reached.
When a stock is very, very bullish it happens many times you can't buy at support, because there are too many buyers there and they start competing for the shares, putting up their bids.
For example, look at VPHM. I would like to buy it at support, but the stock doesn't come down to the technical support, demand is too strong !
ok, i understand that.... maybe I have to reconsider my strategie for ADST today ;)
Quote from Snowcat post 'An Analyst Receives a Time Out From Altera'
LOL, I spent the best part of 10 years working for Altera.
Anyway back to business.
DNDN bounced before support was reached. A truly bullish stock doesn't let investors buy at support, because of bulls competition for shares, as I've explained on previous posts on this thread.
Anyway, the ascending trendline today will stand at $5.45. My medium term target for DNDN is the closing of a gap at $10.26.
DNDN continued to bounce from the fall induced by the UBS downgrade. After all the stock didn't reach support, didn't let bulls buy at the optimal and obvious point. But DNDN now faces a minor resistance at $5.92, it is possible for it to retrace a bit and retest the short term lows around $5.56.
I hope not, but it is certainly possible, as the stock builds a base to move higher.
Anyway I will maintain my trading plan, which is to sell just if the stock closes below the ascending trendline (which today will stand at $5.47) or at the technical target of this bullish move, which for me is the closing of a gap above $10 a share.
Even I was skeptical about DNDN's ability to move higher short term, but it did. Another white candle, the third. When even a bull like me has so many doubts you bet all the weak hands are out.
For me I just have to keep following the trading plan and hold as long as DNDN closes above its uptrend line, which tomorrow will stand at $5.49.
DNDN will present results on August 8th (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B300FA942%2DF685%2D4D5E%2DB249%2D4F01070E9748%7D). This won't change my trading plan, of course.
DNDN's price and volume has risen everyday over the last four days.
For today the ascending support will stand at $5.52, it rises $0.018 everyday.
A day without history on DNDN yesterday. Support today will stand at $5.54. I will hold the stock as long as it closes above this line, which it is almost at my buy point and rising everyday.
DNDN will hardly escape this correction phase without touching support. The ascending trendline today will stand @$5.55, I'll continue holding the stock as long as it closes above this ascending trendline.
DNDN's earnings will be released Monday before the bell. Hopefully that will bring some resolution to the stock price, since I own the stock for a month and a half and it is basically where I've bought it.
Probably earnings won't be very good, but that doesn't matter much, what matters is the guidance for the future, how are those clinical trials going.
For me, not even this matters, since I'm in the business of making money trading stocks. To make money I need simple rules to work in a complex and unlimited environment.
My simple rules on DNDN remain the same:
1) Sell if the stock closes below the ascending trendline which stands at $5.56.
2) Sell with a profit at a close of a gap up at $10.26
It's hard to believe, but DNDN did indeed close below the ascending trendline. Though I didn't sell yet.
I think the market is at a low point now and some stocks did break their ascending trendlines but just briefly.
Results from DNDN were out and not good, as we expected, but that doesn't matter much for this biotech company: Dendreon Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2005 Financial Results (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=180614&guid=%7B1647E350%2D2DB2%2D43EF%2D85B7%2D8E7D76E1822F%7D&symb=)
My plan, since I'm holding this stock for so long now, is to let it react to earnings (possibly the stock was coming down because there was a «sell the rumor» thing affecting it, but now it is time to «buy the news»).
What I need is to let the market tell me what to do, and I will sell at close if DNDN isn't up more than 1% at that time.
HI Dave
I agree, the whole pharma sector is right now a little down, I was planning on giving a little more breathing room to dndn, specially how i seen vphm and scln take of,,, right after i sold them :-X , and i was hoping you would not sell as well. Still a great risk to reward ratio. tonyg
And it appears that all these guys are giving a little room as well. Heres a list of market participants in the dndn stock yesterday hummmmm
Look up a market participant to view a list of securities in which it made a market or look up a security to view a list of its market participants based on the end-of-day status for the previous trading day.
Since the MP Position data is based on the previous trading day, newly added symbols or symbol changes effective for the current day will not be available.
Historical Daily MP Position Data is available for a fee on this website.
Select a report by entering an issue symbol or MPID:
Issue Market Participant
DNDN Dendreon Corporation Monday, August 8, 2005
Common Stock, NASDAQ National Market
Legend: M - Market Maker, NR - Non-Market Maker Reporting Member, C - ECN
Total Market Participants: 57
Page of 1
MPID Firm Name MP Type Status
ABLE Natexis Bleichroeder Inc. M Active
BERN Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC M Active
BEST Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. M Active
BMUR BREAN MURRAY & CO., INC. M Active
BOFA Banc of America Securities LLC M Active
BRUT NASDAQ/Brut Market Center C Active
BTRD B-Trade Services LLC C Excused Withdrawn
CANT CANTOR FITZGERALD & CO. M Active
COWN SG Cowen & Co., LLC M Active
CRTC CRT Capital Group LLC M Active
DATA Track ECN (DATA) C Excused Withdrawn
DBAB DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES INC. M Active
DELA Delafield Hambrecht, Inc. M Active
ETRD E*Trade Capital Markets LLC M Active
FBCO Credit Suisse First Boston LLC M Active
FLCM Fulcrum Global Partners LLC M Active
GROW Pacific Growth Equities, LLC M Active
GSCO GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO. M Active
HAMR W.R. Hambrecht + Co., LLC M Active
HDSN Hudson Securities, Inc. M Active
HILL Hill Thompson Magid and Co., Inc. M Active
HRNB Harris Nesbitt Corp. M Active
HSBC HSBC Securities, Inc. M Active
JEFF JEFFERIES & COMPANY, INC. M Active
JPMS J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. M Active
JSLP JOSEPH STEVENS & COMPANY, INC. M Active
JSSF JMP Securities LLC M Active
KING C. L. KING & ASSOCIATES, INC. M Active
LAZA LAZARD FRERES & CO. LLC M Active
LEER LEERINK SWANN & COMPANY M Active
LEHM LEHMAN BROTHERS INC. M Active
LYON Calyon Securities (USA) Inc. M Active
MADF Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC M Active
MAXM Maxim Group LLC M Active
MLCO MERRILL LYNCH, PIERCE, FENNER & SMITH INCORPORATED M Active
MSCO MORGAN STANLEY & CO., INCORPORATED M Active
MWRI McAdams Wright Ragen, Inc. M Active
NEED Needham & Company, LLC M Active
NFSC National Financial Services LLC M Active
NITE Knight Equity Markets, L.P. M Active
NOCI Attain-ECN C Excused Withdrawn
OPCO Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. M Active
PERT PERSHING TRADING COMPANY, L.P. M Active
PIPR Piper Jaffray & Co. M Active
PRUS Prudential Equity Group, Inc. M Active
RHCO SunTrust Capital Markets, Inc. M Active
SBSH Citigroup Global Markets Inc. M Active
SCHB UBS Capital Markets L.P. M Active
SIZE The NASDAQ Market Center M Active
STCS First American Capital and Trading Corporation M Active
SUSQ SUSQUEHANNA CAPITAL GROUP M Active
TASL Tradition Asiel Securities Inc. M Active
TDCM TD Waterhouse Capital Markets, Inc. M Active
TRAC Track ECN C Excused Withdrawn
TWPT Thomas Weisel Partners LLC M Active
UBSS UBS Securities LLC M Active
WCHV Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC M Active
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
David,
That was a great call! Keep up the good work and you will have a queue trying to be a member of 3SOF!
DNDN was up more than 1% near the close, so I kept the stock ;)
The stock opened down on the earnings news, but then we got the «buy the news» effect I was talking about and DNDN claw back above the ascending support line.
For tomorrow we want continuation of today's white candle, with DNDN closing at least above $5.59.
QuoteDavid,
That was a great call! Keep up the good work and you will have a queue trying to be a member of 3SOF!
Lol, thanks Michael, with your help it is possible. But we don't need/want a lot of people, the most important thing for me is the quality of the service going forward, so expect some news on this subject next week.
Again, thanks for your help on the fundamental side of the trade :)
Like President Bush once said, «I'm sick and tired» of DNDN. I know the stock has great prospects, but I'm getting a bit disappointed with the market action. This stock should have touched support and zoom higher, not meandering around it.
I hold it for a very long time now, and RULE 30 says «a Good Trade is Profitable Right from the Start».
So there's just one more chance for DNDN (it's possible the stock takes the chance, if not for other reason because the Nasdaq Comp is set to rebound). DNDN needs to be set to close higher on Monday or I'll sell for a small loss, respecting the RULE 13: Take big profits and small losses.
Drugmaker Dendreon files for $109 mln stock shelf
Mon Aug 15, 2005 06:18 AM ET
WASHINGTON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Seattle-based drugmaker Dendreon Corp. (DNDN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday filed with regulators to periodically sell up to $109.3 million in common stock.
The company said in a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it will use the proceeds from the offering for clinical trials, research, preclinical development and commercialization activities and to increase its antigen-presenting cell processing capacity.
It will also use the funds to satisfy third-party obligations and for general corporate purposes.
Dendreon is a biotechnology company focused on the development and commercialization of targeted therapies for cancer.
Under a shelf registration, a company may sell securities in one or more separate offerings with the size, price and terms to be determined at the time of sale.
Ok, that's it, DNDN will probably break the support, I'm selling at the open. Again, thanks for the alert la-onda ;)
I'm newbie and i would know what do you think about this stock, I trade in Italy market and i don't know what is your target or what to wait for to you from the share in next weeks?
Isn't it lovely to see a company executing their business plan? UBS might think that it will take years before Provenge will be approved but the management certainly thinks otherwise. Not only have they invested their own money buying stocks in the open market but now they prepare to start production:
QuoteDendreon Signs Agreement to Lease Manufacturing Facility in New JerseyThursday August 18, 9:35 am ET
SEATTLE, Aug. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN - News) today announced that it has signed an agreement to lease 158,242 square feet of commercial manufacturing space in Hanover, New Jersey. Dendreon intends to develop this facility to meet the anticipated clinical and commercial manufacturing needs for Provenge® and its other active immunotherapy product candidates in development. Provenge is the Company's lead investigational active immunotherapy for the treatment of prostate cancer.
The Company will use the facility for manufacturing, laboratory, warehouse, and office space. The location is well situated both in terms of access to distribution channels and qualified industry personnel, which should provide operational efficiencies for the Company.
"We are pleased to have secured a manufacturing facility on the East Coast," said Mitchell H. Gold, president and chief executive officer of Dendreon. "This is an important milestone for the company as we work toward bringing Provenge to market as rapidly as possible."
And it seems like the market likes what it sees:
Now thats soma good news ,,,phew about TIME, i have been a holding this guy for a long time trying not to loose my position. Lets rip >:D >:D
We're seeing alot of upside breakouts out of Symmetrical Triangles, Acending Triangles, etc. "morph," or change into, bearish patterns. Unfortunately, that looks like what we've got with DNDN.
The August 8 break of David's up trendline also was a break of a Bear Channel, the top of which was at August, 2004 resistance, suggesting that the entire rally off the May low was a bear market rally.
The break of the Bear Channel suggests that DNDN could return to the channel origin, at the 4.31 May low, which would mean that those rats at UBS who downgraded it to 4.00 will be right. But, that's what the channel break suggests at this point.
On the east coast facility news, DNDN is rallying back to the bottom of the broken bear channel, which comes in today at about 7.78. It rises daily. If DNDN can close back inside the bear channel, I would rate it neutral, technically. Below the channel, I rate it a sell.
The high so far this morning is 7.82. DNDN currently is BID 5.69...ASK 5.70, up $0.07 on only 59,000 shares traded.
aiy aiy aiy , the business of business will make you cracy no? ::)
there are a lot of folks short on this stock , but ( if in the business sense) when we lease a manufacturing facility for a year, and we are going into september , october, which are really good times for the pharma stocks, the technicals ( thanks elf ) might have to take a back seat to the ticker. Elf what do you tink, ive seen some of your posts and they are brillient. imho ;D
Thanks for adding your hard work to this board. Tony G.
Quote from: agatto2 on August 19, 2005, 10:24:22 PM
aiy aiy aiy , the business of business will make you cracy no? ::)
Ain't it the truth! ;D
Quotethere are a lot of folks short on this stock
Recently, several of us have been discussing heavy short interest on stocks such as NVEC, OVEN, TZOO and EYET. Here's my take on heavy short interest: if the chart is bearish, the shorts are right, even when the short interest is 40%+ of the float. Heavy short interest isn't going to help the stock until the chart does something bullish, forcing a short squeeze. Until it does, the shorts have no motivation to cover.
TZOO might be my favorite example of that. I've been watching it, waiting for it to do something bullish so I could get long it for a short squeeze. Never happened. Despite heavy short interest, TZOO closed below 32.60 support and a Bear Channel on June 27, and it has been down ever since. On Friday, it closed at 24.79, a 52-week low, and anyone who shorted the break of the Bear Channel on June 27, despite what was already heavy short interest, has a 24% paper profit as of Friday's close.
On the other hand, if a chart is shaping up for a bullish breakout, heavy short interest can add fuel for a rally because shorts have got to cover their shorts or get squeezed, sometimes mercilessly. Recent example of that is Cumulina's mentioning last weekend of the heavy short interest in EYET, which already had rallied for 8 days in a row (19%). It was ready to break out of a Symmetrical Triangle on Monday, August 15, at 13.47. It did, and rallied another 16% in two days, helped in part by short-covering.
As of July, 22% of the float in DNDN is short. 17 days to cover. That's as of July 15, I think. What we won't know until the next report, however, is how much of that was covered on the rally to the July 21 high. Regardless, I don't think that heavy short interest in DNDN will help the stock until it acts bullish, technically, motivating shorts to cover. On Friday, for example, anyone who shorted the gap up open at 5.82 for a day trade had a nice little trade by the 5.60 close.
Quotebut ( if in the business sense) when we lease a manufacturing facility for a year, and we are going into september , october, which are really good times for the pharma stocks, the technicals ( thanks elf ) might have to take a back seat to the ticker.
They might, Tony, but I think we'll see that played out in the chart. Friday, the market responded to the "good news" about the manufacturing facility by gapping the stock up at the open into the Bear Channel by four cents, which was the high of day, (that was the initial
emotional respose) then by "selling the good news" for the remainder of the day with the stock closing at the low of the day, and and by closing it below the prior day's close (that's how the market responded to the gap up into technical resistance).
If, after digesting the "good news" over the weekend, the market has a change of heart and really does perceive it as good news, DNDN will get back inside the Bear Channel and start acting bullish, doing something like taking out the neckline (horizontal blue line) of the mini Inverse H&S pattern at 5.88-5.89. It's a very weak pattern in terms of width (only 11 days), but it measures to 6.39 if it gets taken out.
Bottom line: DNDN, technically, has got an uphill battle to fight here. Literally. The Bear Channel is rising each day. The Ichimoku Kumo (cloud) now has risen above price, so that's additional resistance. It really needs to close above 5.88-5.89 (blue line), which would look alot better.
CTIC is a good opportunity ... long, high risk but high rendering too
waiting for the response of FDA for Xyo and Pix
if apporved, it's a $20 stock
Rumors On CTIC in Italy market..... there is a voice of spin-off ? is this a good or bad news for you?
any comment?
;D well ....
Rumors On CTIC in Italy market..... there is a voice of spin-off ? is this a good or bad news for you?
I am long with a small position, bought at 2,67.
NEWS:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050824/sfw030.html?.v=25
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI) Plans to Submit Marketing Applications for Potential Approval of XYOTAX(TM) in the United States and Europe
Wednesday August 24, 7:00 am ET
Would Be First Submission Exclusively Targeting Survival in Women With Lung Cancer
SEATTLE, Aug. 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI) (Nasdaq: CTIC; Nuovo Mercato) announced that it has decided on its strategy for seeking registration and approval for XYOTAX. In the United States, CTI plans to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) and seek approval for XYOTAX as first-line monotherapy for women with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who have poor performance status (PS2). The filing in Europe will also seek use as monotherapy in first-line PS2 patients with NSCLC, but is not expected to be limited to women; however, additional input on the statistical interpretation of non-inferiority will be needed from the scientific committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) prior to submitting a Marketing Authorization Application (MAA).
therman
Yesterday it was been the double bottom, it could give it the force in order to a reaction
I still think that DNDN is the real deal. Here's an interesting piece:
Prostate Drug Promise Vs. FDA Rigidity
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, Forbes/Gottlieb Medical Technology Investor,
02.18.05
NEW YORK - Encouraging news that a new cancer vaccine may be saving
the lives of patients with prostate cancer seems too hard to ignore,
even for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The drug agency has
kept the medical product off the market for more than two years,
arguing that the proof of its value wasn't convincing, even as
evidence continued to accumulate that the new product was saving
lives.
The treatment, developed by Seattle-based biotech company Dendreon
(nasdaq: DNDN - news - people ), works by priming the body's immune
system to recognize special markers on the surface of prostate
cancer cells and harnessing the body's natural immune cells to seek
out the cancer and destroy it.
When the company first submitted its evidence to the FDA almost
three years ago, asking for permission to sell it, the FDA said no.
When the agency looked at all of the patients enrolled in the
company's trial, the vaccine didn't show an overwhelming benefit in
the short-term study of more than 100 prostate cancer patients. But
when Dendreon looked at a smaller subgroup of the patients in the
trial, those with a certain less aggressive form of prostate cancer,
the results looked great. The FDA, however, does not
allow "retrospective" analysis, which is statistically impure and
can lead to cooked results. So Dendreon was asked to do a new trial,
studying the vaccine just in patients who had the less aggressive
form of the cancer. There was evidence that the vaccine worked for
certain patients, but the FDA wanted more convincing data.
It turns out, however, that when Dendreon continued to follow the
patients in the original study for another two-and-a-half years, the
results continued to get better--for all the patients, not just
those with the less aggressive cancer. Thursday evening, Dendreon
announced that 34% of those who received Provenge in that original
trial were still alive after three years, compared with 11% of those
who took a placebo. The median survival, meaning the time by which
half the patients had died, was 25.9 months for those who received
Provenge, compared with 21.4 months for those who took the dummy
vaccine.
That 4.5-month increase in survival is almost double the 2.5-month
benefit shown in clinical trials of Taxotere, a drug that is the
next best thing for patients like those in the Provenge trial whose
cancer has spread beyond the prostate gland and is no longer being
controlled by hormonal therapy.
Dendreon's vaccine product seems on track to win approval, the
question now is whether the FDA will wait for the company to finish
the trial it has underway or approve the product based on the
mounting strength of the results of that original trial. If the FDA
sticks to its rules, it will wait for the new study to finish, and
patients will pay a significant price: denied access to a largely
safe product that looks to be a real advance in cancer care.
Dendreon has said it will wait for the results of its ongoing trial
before filing for approval with the FDA.
------------------
The writer of this article, Dr. Gotlieb (he wrote this in Feb 2005,
even before the excellent data of the 9902A announcement), has been
nominated as the #2 in the FDA several weeks ago.
If approved, DNDN could easily be a $30+ stock, but this is going to
be a VERY bumpy and long (at least a year) road.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh13552_2005-09-14_17-20-29_wen9062_newsml
Has anyone been watching this one lately??
Only found the thread just now, and read through it in its entirety. Still provides a very compelling case as I'm sure Michael will attest. But no posts since August 20? And solid upward movement too ???
Now a big spike on news that they are seeking FDA approval, DNDN looks set to rip now. Perhaps David's revised target of $10.26 is a realistic goal now, certainly the original goal around $8 should be achieved with ease. That is unless UBS attempt to mess with things again. And if there is still a large short position out there the squeeze could well be on...
I am going to keep a very close eye on this one at tomorrow's open ;)
I will step up to take another credit for being the first one to bring DNDN to the table on 3tocksonfire. Here is how I view DNDN now:
The current approval of Provenge is for ADPC (the late stage of
Prostate Cancer). There are 40,000 new patients a year (in the US
ALONE) at this stage. Provenge will be sold for $40-50,000... so ...
the market size is $1.5-2 Billion. Assuming that the manufacturing
costs are much higher than standard drugs (due to the nature of
Provenge, the patient's white blood cells have to be sent to a
remote lab for the special "cassette" process) - I would assume
gross costs of $10K (20%), so I'll discount the mkt size accordingly
to ~around~ $1.4 Billion.
DNDN has no partnership (yet) with a big pharma, so as with other
biotechs, we can asign a price/sales multiple of 8-15, so a
potential market cap of $12 billion is not out of the question.
Today's $7 close represents a mkt cap of around $400MM -- so go do
the math for the upside potential.
Now consider the following:
1. DNDN's next trial, the P-11, checks the effectiveness of Provenge
for early stage prostate cancer - mkt size which is 5 TIMES bigger
than the current indication
2. Provenge is NOT a chemotherapy... the only reported side effects
are fever and chills for one day after the treatment
3. So if one has to chose between a chemotherapy (Taxotere, the
current leading drug with 11% chance to survive over 3 years) vs
Provenge, with 45% chance to survive over 3 years, what would he
chose?
4. DNDN has Neuvenge, which acts similarly to Provenge in much
earlier stage in its pipeline as well as another drug candidate that
they test together with DNA.
So despite the vicious short attack from UBS I keep my DNDN
position. As mentioned many times before, the DNDN ride is going to
be VERY bumpy - but an exciting one. With a short position of over 14,000,000 - a short squeeeeeeze seems more likely than not.
Enjoy!
Thanks for your reply, stockpicker,
I'd applaud if I could (where did the applauds go ???) for hanging in there where other's (including David) did not.
As a relatively new member, I'm starting to realise that it is very easy to get caught up in short term moves here on 3SOF, but if you have a little look at some of the older trades, there are some great stocks with great fundamental stories that could be easily held a LOT longer. no doubt DNDN is one of them. It's just funny how if no-one has posted on the thread for a while it gets buried (Doesn't mean its gone away though!)
I think it might be time for me to spend an evening going through all the older threads to catch up :D
Joy.
Good luck for tomorrow matey ;)
I have held DNDN for a good while. After the last "good" news, I doubled my position only to get burned by the UBS downgrade a few days later. I have since moved back to my original position (my biggest holding dollarwise still). I think it important to pay good attention on the entry point unless you are truly looking long-term. The short position is huge, probably naked in part, and this stock beyond anything I have seen seems to get manipulated. So careful if you trade short-term. If you want to look up in 2010 and retire, this is the stock I am betting on for that opportunity. Management clearly thinks approval is going to happen. It is building the manufacturing facility as I write. Dave
I'm still learning TA - This looks like the Cup - possible handle formation in the next few days?
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/DNDN9-15.png)
Thoughts?
Quote from: ScottishTrader on September 14, 2005, 06:51:23 PM
Only found the thread just now, and read through it in its entirety. Still provides a very compelling case as I'm sure Michael will attest. But no posts since August 20? And solid upward movement too ???
Hi Scotsman and Stockpicker
I have to admit that Dendreon does not have my attention these days. As I said in my last mail DNDN is executing their business plan and we can just sit back and wait for the PPS to reflect this.
DNDN is a bit like religion either you are a beliver or you are not. I am a believer and I am confident that they will get FDA approval and that the UBS' of this world will turn around in a second and suddently find DNDN the most sexy stock around - it is just a matter of time.
For now we have most of the Analysts betting against us and I could see DNDN falling back. As said before I don't care. Until now DNDN has fulfilled all my expectations and I don't see any reasons for selling DNDN. This is going to be a great investment.
Thanks very much for the comments, bigdogs and Michael, I can fully understand why you are so confident in this one.
Having seen the pps fluctuations these last few days, it looks like someone is messing with the stock on a short term basis. My real question with this one is as bigdogs mentioned, finding an appropriate entry point. With yesterday's long red candle, it doesn't show any sign of a turnaround yet, but with the recent posittive news, I wouldn't expect it to lose all of the last white candle. I may try to get in between 6.50-6.70. Do you think it can go any lower?
Okay, since my last post, I decided from a fundamental perspective that this one is really going to go places, and I want to be in with it, so on Friday I bought in at $6.50, as this seemed like the bottom of the current retracement and a good place to get in. 8)
However, since then I have had a closer look at the charts, and I am not too sure what is in store for DNDN over the next cuople of weeks :-[ (then again, can you ever be?)
Overall, as has been pointed out previously, the trend is bullish, with a strong, longterm ascending trendline directing this one along its way. However, this stands quite far below the current value, presently around $5.45, which represents quite a bit of downside. :-\
In the short term, we have a steep ascending trendline, which we have come back down to meet, and it looks like we have got a bounce off this, which is good :) However...
as can been seen in the retracement from the last peak, there were several small gains, even as it eventually retraced back to the long term support line. This may be a normal pattern, and I think that it may well play out once again, especially given the short position on DNDN. In addition, while the MACD is still up, it's just crossed over the 9 EMA, which has previously confirmed the retracement back to support. :-[
While we could still get a small rally towards $7.00 for a short gain, I think we are going to see more downside below $6.50 soon (esp. after AH pullback today), which is frustrating, because I want to be in this one when the news on their approval comes out and things get silly, but I also don't want to hold it at this level if all I can see is downside from here. :P
I know that others on this board have more patience than me and are holding this (possibly from a much lower level), no matter what. I would appreciate any comments/suggestions on my reading of this situation and what to do. At present my plan is to hold as long as we are above the sharp trendline and sell tomorrow (today) if it looks like we will close below it.
Then it is just a matter of keeping an eye on it until it pulls back to long term support, and hoping I don't miss out :'(
What a game, here's the chart:
ctic 3.13 +1.01 on the day based on phase 2 trials of one of its drugs and effects of prolonging life in women. Do you think it could run more? jan 07 calls at 0.95 might be attractive. can i get expert opinion? thanxs a bunch.
up more than 50% on 31x volume!
News this morning created a nice little run. :D
XYOTAX(TM) Significantly Prolongs Survival Among Women With Advanced Lung Cancer
9/27/05
Third Clinical Trial Provides Further Evidence of Survival Advantage in Women Reported in the STELLAR 3 and 4 Studies
NEW YORK, Sept 27, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --
At a presentation at the UBS Global Life Sciences Conference, Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI) (Nasdaq: CTIC; MTAX: CTIC) presented new results from a recently completed phase II clinical trial of XYOTAX in the first-line treatment of men and women with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In that single arm study, known as PGT202, the 35 women who received XYOTAX plus carboplatin had a 36 percent probability of living at least 1 year compared to only 16 percent in the 39 men receiving the same regimen. A pooled analysis of XYOTAX treated patients from STELLAR 3, STELLAR 4 and the PGT202 trial demonstrated a statistically significant (p=0.004) survival advantage for women treated when compared to men, with women having a 39 percent probability of surviving at least 1 year compared to 25 percent of men (HR =1.37, log rank p = 0.014 N = 463 patients). The Company previously reported that in a combined analysis of STELLAR 3 and 4, women treated with XYOTAX survived significantly longer than women treated on the standard chemotherapy control arms of these studies.
"To the best of our knowledge this is the first time a drug therapy for advanced lung cancer has consistently demonstrated such a strong survival advantage for women compared to men or compared to women randomized to treatment with standard chemotherapy," noted Jack W. Singer, M.D., Chief Medical Officer at CTI. "We are currently evaluating the effect of estrogen on the metabolism of XYOTAX in normal and cancerous tissues to provide mechanistic support for these important clinical results."
In August, CTI outlined its plans to file a New Drug Application (NDA) in the United States and a Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) in Europe in 2006 based on the results of its Stellar 3 and 4 trials.
About Lung Cancer in Women
Several studies have indicated that compared to men, women who smoke are more likely to develop lung cancer at a younger age and at lower levels of exposure to cigarette smoke. Non-smoking women are at higher risk for developing lung cancer than non-smoking men. Research has focused on the influence of genetic differences between men and women and on the role of estrogen to explain these findings. Estrogen enhances the effects of carcinogens in the environment and in smoke, possibly leading to a higher risk for NSCLC and once it occurs, appears to enhance its development. Since women have higher levels of estrogen than men, and younger women have higher levels of estrogen than older women, this may in part be responsible for their higher risk for NSCLC. Developing therapies that are favorably influenced by estrogen may provide a gender-targeted therapeutic approach to the treatment of NSCLC.
About Lung Cancer
According to the American Cancer Society, lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among both men and women and results in more deaths per year than colorectal, breast, prostate, liver, and kidney cancers combined. Nearly 60 percent of people with lung cancer die within one year of their diagnosis and nearly 75 percent die within 2 years; figures which have not improved in 10 years. Lung cancer is expected to kill nearly twice as many women as breast cancer this year.
About XYOTAX
XYOTAX (paclitaxel poliglumex) is a pharmaceutical that links paclitaxel, the active ingredient in Taxol(R), to a biodegradable polyglutamate polymer, which results in a new chemical entity. Blood vessels in tumor tissue, unlike blood vessels in normal tissue, are porous to molecules like polyglutamate. Based on preclinical studies, it appears that XYOTAX is preferentially trapped in the tumor blood vessels allowing significantly more of the dose of chemotherapy to localize in the tumor.
About Cell Therapeutics, Inc.
Headquartered in Seattle, CTI is a biopharmaceutical company committed to developing an integrated portfolio of oncology products aimed at making cancer more treatable. For additional information, please visit www.cticseattle.com.
Hey Catrader, sorry about starting another thread on CTIC...i did a search on the main message board and this thread didn't come up.
Just to let everyone know..there was aftermarket trading as well.
i will send Rams a msg to merge. ;D
thanks
julia
Quote from: gmarc66 on September 27, 2005, 11:30:50 PM
Hey Catrader, sorry about starting another thread on CTIC...i did a search on the main message board and this thread didn't come up.
Just to let everyone know..there was aftermarket trading as well.
i will send Rams a msg to merge. ;D
thanks
julia
julia,
no problem. sometimes you have to do search twice. i done that a couple of times, for some reason the first search don't come up with anything but when do it again it does.
It's up some and moving pre-market.
Don't see any new news...so, seems like the price surge continues :)
Did u get in catrader?
good luck
julia
well bought a few jan 2.5 calls for 0.75 so yeah in, go ctic!
The way this stock has reacted the last few days makes me think that it might be ready to pop. DNDN announced plans to file its NDA/new drug application. UBS (and even Cramer ::)) has taken shots at the stock, and it gets a regular late afternoon walk-down in price, but it keeps creeping up the chart. Mid-Sept. it blew through the 200 day MA and has stayed and seems to have a nice trend.
On Oct. 3, DNDN announced that final results of its second Phase 3 study (D9902A) of Provenge® will be presented during a late-breaking clinical trials session at the ECCO 13 congress, Europe's preeminent cancer research conference, in Paris from October 30 to November 3. Dendreon announced top-line results of the D9902A study in July. I cannot imagine a hurry-up trip to present unless DNDN thinks that the data betters (or certainly at least equals) the earlier results.
DNDN has had some false starts, but this looks different. David, if you had time to look at this one, it would be greatly appreciated! ???
I sold out of this last week, which in hindsight was not the best move, but what can you do?? I believe it was because it broke my ascending trendline, which then acted as resistance, and I didn't like the look of that.
Anyway, I believe that you could well be right, although resistance at $7 exerted its influence quite strongly today, once again indicating the power of the sellers on this one. But the big news is surely in the works and I like the positive news trickling out.
As the previous sharp ascending support line was broken, this now appears to also be acting as resistance, but this won't matter after today as it has crossed the strong resistance level at 7.00.
I am not entirely sure what to expect here in the short term. I would like to see it close near 7.00, but seeing as it has touched that level, it could also retrace back to 6.50. Solid news, or the very strong expectation of it is the only thing that will break it through. I will monitor this one every day from now on, and look for a good buy point, sooner rather than later. A close above $7 and we should push the next resistance in a snap. There is no question (barring bad news) that this one has got to go on fire, and pretty soon given yoour previous post.
I'll leave you with the chart ;)
Thanks Scottish. Another crappy day today.... For those who have never seen it before, I post below an old Motley Fool (yes, I am a fool reading fools :o) article.
_______
Dendreon a Rule Breaker?
By Karl Thiel (TMF Breaker Thiel)
May 3, 2005
The following is part of our week-long Rule Breaker series, where we Foolishly examine several companies and ask, "Is it a Rule Breaker?" Hey, even better, we'll answer the question for you.
But then I asked about Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN), and his expression changed. "I actually own that personally," he said. "I've got to admit, I'm a believer."
That's Dendreon in a nutshell. In working to bring the first therapeutic cancer vaccine to market, the company has faced numerous unknowns and challenges. At this stage, it has produced a fair bit of data that investors can use to size up the firm's prospects, but ultimately, you're either a believer or you're not. Investors tend to be passionate about Dendreon, so there are a lot of fervent supporters and detractors -- 23% of its shares are sold short.
I'm also a believer in Dendreon. Having followed the company for some time, I finally bought shares earlier this year. But is it a Rule Breaker, a company that not only promises tremendous growth potential but also has fundamental characteristics that make it a worthy investment on something more than faith?
Most of the potential Rule Breakers my colleagues are discussing this week (we're sizing up more than a half-dozen companies for their Rule Breaking potential) are clear innovators that have already made their mark on the world. The question for them is whether there is enough juice left in these maturing companies to justify paying premium growth-stock prices.
In many ways, Dendreon poses the opposite problem. It may simply be too risky for anything other than "mad money."
Anatomy of a renegade
Dendreon is best known for Provenge, an experimental treatment for prostate cancer. Provenge is a vaccine, but not in the sense that it inoculates patients against illness (it is only given to people who have advanced disease). Instead, Provenge uses antigen from the cancer itself to stimulate greater of production of T cells by the body to attack the cancer. Companies such as Cell Genesys (Nasdaq: CEGE), Antigenics (Nasdaq: AGEN), CancerVax (Nasdaq: CNVX), Biomira (Nasdaq: BIOM), Geron (Nasdaq: GERN), and others are all developing cancer vaccines based on some variation of this strategy, but there are as yet no cancer vaccines on the market.
Dendreon, like some of the other companies mentioned above, has made it to phase 3 testing of its product -- the last stage before an approval decision. But while CancerVax, for instance, recently discontinued a trial because it didn't produce evidence of a therapeutic benefit, and Antigenics is still awaiting the moment of truth (and struggling with the FDA over whether the drug used in its earlier clinical trials will be judged acceptable for evaluation), Dendreon has simply produced ambiguous results.
The company has designed three phase 3 studies: D9901, D9902A, and D9902B. In the first of these, D9901, Provenge failed to meet its primary endpoint of slowing disease progression. That's bad. Down went the stock -- from $9 the day before the first interim analysis was announced to $5 the next day, and thereafter as low as $1.26. But as follow-ups continued, Dendreon established that Provenge significantly extended the lives of some of the people who took the drug. That's good. The stock went over $10 per share after the first interim survival results were announced and peaked above $16 per share after more detailed survival results were released.
When D9901 failed to meet its primary endpoint, researchers at Dendreon combed through the data, as is common in such situations, to see if there were some patients who did better on the drug than others. They discovered that Provenge significantly extended the time-to-disease progression in patients with a Gleason score (a measure of the severity of prostate cancer) of 7 or less.
Seeking to confirm this benefit, Dendreon redesigned its second ongoing phase 3 trial, then called D9902. They halted further enrollment in D9902 and called this truncated study group D9902A. After consulting with the FDA, Dendreon pursued a new study named D9902B, enrolling only patients with a Gleason score of 7 or less.
Still with me? Fast-forward to 2005, when interim results of D9902A came out. The study missed its primary endpoint. The drug didn't reduce time-to-disease progression. Trends did, however, indicate that Provenge again extended survival, a different endpoint from time-to-disease progression, with the curves reportedly looking very much as they did in D9901.
Largely lost in the hubbub was the fact that D9902A was also not a complete clinical trial. It never reached targeted enrollment of 120 patients (enrollment halted at 98), and it lacked statistical significance as a stand-alone study. Since detailed results of D9902A have not been published -- and survival follow-up is still ongoing -- we don't know how the results will stack up when they are combined with data from D9901, which is how the results will ultimately have to be read.
But if we believe management's assertion about the survival curve, it looks like D9902A may well confirm the excellent survival results of D9901. And they were excellent, albeit limited. Median survival was extended 4.5 months among the patients on Provenge, and three times as many Provenge patients were alive three years after beginning treatment than those on a placebo. This survival benefit was, as Dendreon put it in their 10-K, "greater than that observed with any type of treatment in any published phase 3 study in late-stage prostate cancer." But the size of the study leaves questions about whether these results will be consistent.
D9902b is now the critical study. According to the company, if it meets its primary endpoints, Provenge could be on the market as early as 2006. If not, we may have to wait for further clinical results that would push approval out another year or more -- or Provenge could, of course, never get approved at all.
Breaking too many rules?
But now for the question at hand: Is Dendreon a Rule Breaker? While recognizing that there are only limited data available and that a more complete picture may tell a different story, I happen to believe Provenge has produced some pretty remarkable survival results. I trust management enough to believe that the trends seen in D9902A to date appear to confirm earlier results, and I think survival trumps other measures of efficacy like time-to-disease progression, which is just a surrogate endpoint anyway. I think the safety profile of Provenge -- with transient fever and chills being the most common side effects -- also helps the drug.
What if I'm wrong? Dendreon has just one other clinical product, Neuvenge (currently in phase 1 studies), which is to ovarian and breast cancer what Provenge is to prostate cancer. It works on the same technology platform (with a different antigen). Therefore, if Provenge fails, investors will, fairly or not, likely discount the value of Neuvenge to something near zero.
That will leave Dendreon in a tough position. It's not the type of situation we like to subject Motley Fool Rule Breakers subscribers to. Our ideal is to pick companies with a vision, mission, and strategy we believe in enough to hold the stock for the long term, ignoring the odd hiccup in the forward path. Even for biotech companies, where the failure of a product is always a big deal and always a possibility, we try to stick to companies that have more than one trick up their sleeve. Yes, Dendreon has other programs in place -- some quite interesting ones, even -- but these are too early in development to salvage much value for shareholders in a worst-case scenario. If Provenge fails -- really, unequivocally fails -- I'll have little choice but to take my loss and pack off somewhere else, tail between my legs.
Still, I have to say this: Dendreon is a Rule Breaker in every other Foolish sense. It is pioneering a new treatment modality, nearing the finish line with a product that, if approved, will enjoy the biopharmaceutical industry's typical high margins and solid patent protection. It has some real data to support that product. The market it is addressing is large, growing, and not adequately served by current options. I like the fact that Dendreon still owns worldwide rights to Provenge, so it's not giving away the goods to a big pharmaceutical company. And let's not forget that while investors often have to pay up for Rule Breaking companies with big growth potential, Dendreon is trading at less than $5 a share -- with a piddling $278 million market cap. With little debt and $177 million in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of 2004, that's not much of a price tag to pay for the company's products and technology. The market is obviously betting against it, but the rewards for the faithful, if they prove right, will be substantial.
hey guys, well, after two heavy down days, DNDN just touched the ascending trendline and bounced back - perfectly!! So I took the opportunity to buy back in. As many have said before either you're a believer in this one or not, and I want to believe - see the potential for big things to happen here.
So technically it has hit its short term bottom, and I expect it to pull back from here. I am setting a relatively tight exit point of a drop below 5.90, as that is where I see the next support level below the ascending trendline, but I would like to see the trendline hold.
Any comments appreciated - here's the chart ;D
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 07, 2005, 12:39:19 PM
hey guys, well, after two heavy down days, DNDN just touched the ascending trendline and bounced back - perfectly!!
Scotsman,
I saw your comment about DNDN in the CKCM folder. Ver-ry nice job, catching that bounce off the trendline. Applause!
QuoteI am setting a relatively tight exit point of a drop below 5.90, as that is where I see the next support level below the ascending trendline, but I would like to see the trendline hold.
In my last post somewhere back in this folder in August, I commented to Tony (Agatto, I think) after DNDN broke below its up trendline that DNDN would look alot better if it could get back above RESISTANCE at
5.88-5.89, which it did. I'll show you that later. Now,
5.88-5.89 has come into play again, only this time as SUPPORT, near your
5.90 stop.
QuoteAny comments appreciated
You might regret saying that, because I've got alot of comments. ;D
1. With reference to our linear vs. log chart discussion this week...
This is a linear chart. If you look at #3 (circled in red) on the down trendline from February, it looked like DNDN had an upside breakout in June. Twice, in fact. But, on the log chart, it didn't break out, but rather, DNDN hit the down trendline just about exactly (at #3, circled in red), then sold off. That's when David and I agreed that we'd better use a log chart on this one.
That third hit, then a selloff, validated the down trendline as resistance on the log chart. When you get that third tag to a trendline, the market is telling us that our assumption that the down trendline is resistance is correct, and to pay attention if the stock breaks out above it, because it likely will have some significance. Not always. Sometimes, we get false breakouts (or breakdowns).
I'll show you the log chart next post. Friday's action was very interesting on the log chart.
2. Look at the area of the gap down in February. I'll explain later how that might come into play again.
3. (Off topic) Note how DNDN was coiling into the apex of the Symmetrical Triangle just before it finally did break out. I hope we get that with EGHT. Time's a-runnin' out on us!
Next post...the log chart.
This is the log chart, Scotsman. If you make it through this post, you will see why I said that you might regret asking for comments. ;D
1. Data point #3 (circled in red) hit the down trendline almost exactly, then the stock sold off. That was a validation that the down trendline was, in fact, resistance, and that if we could get above it, odds favor a rally, which we eventually got.
2. After meeting resistance at at data point #3 on the down trendline, we went down and bounced off the up trendline, validating that as support. It was penetrated intraday, but that's allowable. The close is what's important.
The "lines in the sand" now were pretty well drawn. 3 hits at resistance; 3 hits at support.
3. DNDN broke out and rallied to "the UBS downgrade." While it seemed as though UBS "caused" DNDN to get slammed, let's try not to let our emotions get involved, and try to look objectively at what else was going on:
a. DNDN was at 7.26-7.52 resistance from the late 2004 lows. The high just before the downgrade was 7.32, right in that resistance area.
b. The downward sloping 200DMA was at 7.21 when the 7.32 high was made. DNDN couldn't hold above it, and closed July 21 at 7.02. The UBS downgrade came the next morning.
c. The 50DMA on July 21 was only at 5.51, 1.70 points below the 200DMA at 7.21, so DNDN was "ahead of itself," rallying to 7.32 with the 50 and 200 DMAs that badly inverted.
d. My contention is this: if a stock is in good shape, technically, a downgrade might knock it down for a day or two, then the market will ignore the downgrade. If the stock keeps going down, there probably was something else going on with the stock, technically.
In this case, we can see that DNDN had some technical difficulties, which resulted in the selloff back to the 50DMA, and below it.
4. On August 8, DNDN closed below its 50DMA and, worse, closed below the up trendline off the May 2 low (red up trendline). YUK. DOUBLE YUK. That looked awful.
When a stock does that, I'm gone. In this case, I already was gone at 6.01. I rate a break like that as bearish. I rate it a neutral if it can close back above the broken trendline, but I don't want to own it. It violated an important trendline, and I no longer trust it to act well.
5. DNDN did, in fact, get back above the broken trendline...then back below it...then back above it...
What was interesting about that late August time-frame was that, while it was looking aimless, it not only was refusing to go down, it was building a little bullish Ascending Triangle, with the top of the triangle at 5.88-5.89
That's when I said in my last post on this thread to Tony that if DNDN could take out 5.88-5.89, it would look alot better.
The low of that little Ascending Triangle was 5.37, which also is the new/redrawn up trendline off the May low (dark green trendline)
If DNDN could take out 5.88-5.89, the upside target was 6.39.
Math: 5.88 (I always use the lower, more conservative number) - 5.37 = 0.51
0.51 added to a breakout at 5.88 = Target: 6.31. (I'd want to see 5.90 get printed, above the 5.88-5.89, before buying.
6. DNDN broke out of the Ascending Triangle on September 1, printing 5.90 . I didn't buy the breakout. Wasn't even watching it. I still didn't trust the stock, technically, after that August 8 breakdown.
But, wait a minute....whether I trusted it or not, DNDN was acting BULLISH again!
DNDN not only made the 6.31 target, it rallied way-y beyond that, to a new high for the move at 7.37.
7. I've got to rate that move to 7.37 as very good, since it was a print above the "UBS downgrade" high of 7.32. That suggests to me that, technically, the stock was strong enough to overcome the downgrade after correcting the technical difficulties that I mentioned above in Point #3, about what else was going on with DNDN at the UBS downgrade.
8. Just as a point of interest, note how in the beginning and at the end of September, DNDN again began to use the original up trendline (dark red line) again as support.
The 50 and 200DMAs were still inverted, though not as badly as they were in July, at the UBS downgrade.
The slam that DNDN took this week looks to me like, "Gee, since the general market is selling off here, let's use this as an opportunity to..."
a. Go down and validate that new up trendlne (green) off the May low.
b. Give the 50 and 200DMAs some more time to make a bullish cross
c. Successfully Re-test the top of the Ascending Triangle at 5.88-5.89
9. DNDN is looking much, much healthier than it did at the July 7 upside breakout.
a. The basing formation is much larger...'the bigger the base...the better the breakout"
b. The 50/200DMAs are getting "in gear," so DNDN won't be "ahead of itself" on a rally.
c. We've got a big Ascending Triangle formation from which to breakout, if Friday's low holds, or if we get another low this week that holds.
10. The top of the Ascending Triangle (dark blue line) are the UBS downgrade high in July (7.32) and the September 15 high (7.37).
Remember in my last post, I said that 10.39 from the January gap might come back into play?
Here's the math for the Ascending Triangle if it breaks out, using the conservative 7.32.
7.32 - 4.31 (the May low) = 3.01 points.
3.01 points added to 7.32 = 10.33
Now, that's not exact, of course. If we use the 7.37 high, we get...
7.37 - 4.31 = 3.06...............3.06 + 7.37 = 10.43
Either way, "ballpark," a breakout measures back to that gap, roughly.
This is looking good, Scotsman, as long as that green up trendline off the May low holds. Thanks very much for bringing it back to my attention.
Scotsman,
With reference to our 5.88...5.89...5.90, and to my suggestion that we NOT switch back and forth between linear and log charts, just to suit our own purposes...
Guess where the up trendline comes in on Monday on the LINEAR chart ???
(see chart)
If we bounce off it this week, I'm switching back and forth from now on, just to suit my own devilish purposes!
>:D >:D >:D
MetfElf, Wow, I wish I knew how to applaud on here. Exactly the information I wanted. Thank you!!! :)
You've very welcome, bigdogs, and thank you for the interesting artilce from Motley Fools and for the information about the Paris Conference Oct 30-Nov 3.
You can't applaud me, but I can (and did) applaud you! Nah...Nah..Nah...Nah..Nah...Nah (we need a face on the toolbar with a tongue sticking out at the other person...lol).
You have to have made 50 posts before you can applaud or smite someone, so you're half way there! ;D
Once you've made 50, the [applaud] [smite] buttons will appear under the name of the person on every post that you read, except your own. You can't applaud yourself because that's considered too naughty. We might sit here all day applauding ourselves, and not get our work done. >:D
If you find a post helpful, informative, etc., you just hit the [applaud] button, and the person's applaud rating goes up one point. It's a nice way to encourage quality posts, and to show the person that the effort is appreciated.
You can applaud several different people one right after another (say, all of the people who have contributed in a folder), but you can't applaud the same person until one hour has passed. That's to keep people from getting ridiculous, and giving the same person five or ten applauds all at once, even though sometimes a post is so helpful, we'd like to do that. lol.
Smites should only be used when someone acts obnoxious, which is extremely rare on this wonderful forum. Goofy touting or bashing of a stock...or disrespect to another person, that's okay to give a smite, to show the person that they need to change their behavior. I've only seen obnoxious behavior a couple of times in four months, whiich is great! Everyone else posts in the spirit of sharing information and of helping each other.
Thanks again for your posts on DNDN!
Mel, anopther awesome series of posts, applaud ;D ;D ;D
Now this is exactly why I hate having both log and linear charts, aspecially when you can draw trendlines on both of them!! But on the plus side, it looks like right now, both the log chart and linear chart are showing very similar support levels, right around 5.90. And we got a low of 5.94 yesterday, which is pretty close, and it rebounded back up to 6.14 after that, late in the day, which I believe is quite positive. But from lookng at your charts, I think I will go with the log chart for now, keeping an eye on the liner for confirmation. As you noted, the log chart shows several support/resistance lines that have been validated longer term, and so should give a better perception off what to play off.
From your details about low support around 5.88-5.89, I think I will drop my exit level to a little bit below this, say 5.80-5.85 as a target to get out, if worst comes to worst, but I really don't think it will come to that. The 50 and 200 MA cross that is about to happen plus its flirtation with this support should provide a bounce, esp as it has lost 15% in the last few days - hopefully there are others that realise this is a good time to buy. I would like to see it get above your red support line on the log chart to feel more comfortable, but I also think it needs to validate this trendline to show that it is still in effect. At the moment, the green ones seem to have precedence, but we'll see.
Also glad to see that DNDN has acted so technically in the past - is always a good signal that it will continue to do so in the future. I've been going in and out of stocks so much just recently (and almost all for a loss >:( ) that I really want to find a few to just sit on for a bit, watch and analyse. But this requires good entry points, and I hope I've got one here - now regretting my entry point in EGHT slightly, but what can you do, gonna have to sit on that one until it retraces and bounces (I just hope it does it quickly!!)
Anyway, hope you will join me on this one, I think DNDN could do really well in the next month or so, but we'll just have to see.
Again, Melf Elf, I really have to congratulate you and thank you for your excellent analyses. I've really enjoyed running on and analysing these stocks with you, and find your comments invaluable. As I'm sure you know, it is one thing to make an analysis and base a plan off of it, but it makes a huge difference to get someone else's comments on it, to confirm things you have done right, but to also highlight things you may have over looked. Will applaud you again when I'm done ;D
Have a good weekend,
the Scotsman
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 08, 2005, 02:05:16 PM
Now this is exactly why I hate having both log and linear charts, aspecially when you can draw trendlines on both of them!! But on the plus side, it looks like right now, both the log chart and linear chart are showing very similar support levels, right around 5.90.
Right. And, the fact that 5.88-5.89 was the top of the little Ascending Triangle breakout in August argues for giving that level a chance to be re-tested and to hold as support, if we go down there.
QuoteAnd we got a low of 5.94 yesterday, which is pretty close, and it rebounded back up to 6.14 after that, late in the day, which I believe is quite positive.
The tail on Friday's candle wasn't quite long enough, technically, to qualify as a bullish hammer, but it still looked good, especially with it closing near the 50/200 DMAs. A print on Monday of 6.40, above Friday's 6.39 high, would look even better. Some will use that as a "buy pivot."
QuoteFrom your details about low support around 5.88-5.89,
I had so many comments yesterday, I forgot to mention that on this week's selloff, DNDN has come back down to the Kumo (CLOUD) on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, which "should" act as support.
I'll bet you can guess where the bottom of the Kumo is (see chart) ;D
QuoteAnyway, hope you will join me on this one,
I will.
But, I don't want to have any fantasies about it. Realistically, on Monday morning, I want DNDN to have an early selloff to 5.88-5.90. I'll buy it there. 5 minutes after I buy it, a rumor will surface about great success with Provenge to be reported in Paris on October 30.
DNDN immediately will start screaming higher and higher and higher.... ;D ;D ;D
QuoteI've really enjoyed running on and analysing these stocks with you, and find your comments invaluable. As I'm sure you know, it is one thing to make an analysis and base a plan off of it, but it makes a huge difference to get someone else's comments on it, to confirm things you have done right, but to also highlight things you may have over looked.
Ditto! It's an absolute pleasure, Scotsman! Have a good weekend.
The two of you should change your names to DNDNSeer#1 and DNDNSeer#2. Called it right! ;D
Quote from: bigdogs99999 on October 10, 2005, 02:26:24 PM
The two of you should change your names to DNDNSeer#1 and DNDNSeer#2. Called it right! ;D
bigdogs,
LOL. Thanks...just hope that we don't end up changing our names to Dumb and Dumber.
I'm having entry problems on DNDN. I didn't get my early selloff, like I wanted, and I decided that I didn't want to buy the 6.40 pivot, which we got. We're there now.
My risk on a 6.40 entry would be a loss of almost 9%, which is more than I want, especially with there being some short-term resistance right in this 6.40 area. You can see from the 60-minute chart below that the lows of mid-September were 6.40ish. That's not a real big deal, but might cause some short-term turbulence if we attempt to go higher here.
Today's high is 6.44. DNDN last was BID 6.39...ASK 6.40.
Good luck. I'd love to see this go higher for you guys, even if it's without me. :'(
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=60&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
Hey guys,
Well, a very nice day with DNDN, and as you said, going exactly according to plan (well maybe not quite your plan Melf Elf ;)) But then again, with the movement we saw today, if you time it right, I think you might be able get in around the low 6.20s tomorrow - which would only give you a risk of just over 5%, which I think is manageable, and this one is definitely one to be in, especially if the hints about announcements at the end of the month are true.
When you look at the chart, today's action was easy to predict (well, easy in hindsight, anyway :D)
A touch of the ascending support on Friday, and very nearly the 5.89 resistance, as previously mentioned, a bullish cross of the 50 and 200 MA's and look where it peaked today - right at the next resistance line, which was the high of the initial breakout run in early May, which was also recent lows when it was pushing $7 in the last couple weeks.
It could consolidate at this resistance level for a couple of days, or if volume picks up, it could push through and test the next resistance. This second ascending trendline could also become a factor as it has prrovided support recently and could cause some resistance, but ideally we would like to get above it and use it as support once again.
We shall see what happens tomorrow, but Melf Elf, do get on board if you can, I like having you on my side ;D
the Scotsman
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 11, 2005, 03:13:00 AM
This second ascending trendline could also become a factor as it has prrovided support recently and could cause some resistance,
Agreed, Scotsman. That would appear to be the next challenge, especially with the Kijun-Sen right there, and it's inverted. You're ascending trendline comes in today at about 6.62; and, on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the Kijun-Sen is at 6.655.
The Kijun-Sen and the Tenken-Sen act kind of like an MACD, only they're price-related and they are plotted right on the chart "as a price," rather than as an indicator below the chart.
Very simple: The green line (Tenken-Sen) should be above the red line (Kijun-Sen), just like the 50DMA should be above the 200DMA, or else you might have some problems/consolidation until they make, or come close to making, a bullish cross.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 10, 2005, 03:10:04 PM
[My risk on a 6.40 entry would be a loss of almost 9%, which is more than I want, especially with there being some short-term resistance right in this 6.40 area. You can see from the 60-minute chart below that the lows of mid-September were 6.40ish.
Glad that I passed on the 6.40 buy pivot. The 6.40s was too much resistance.
Looks like DNDN closed at 6.14. I might get a chance to join you guys yet. ;)
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=60&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
eesh, didn't like today's action - makes me think there is some more downside yet to come, but at this stage it should hopefully be small, to confirm our trendline.
Hoep you do come in Melf Elf, I think you may get a better price than me now ;)
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 11, 2005, 04:37:00 PM
Hoep you do come in Melf Elf,
Bought DNDN at 6.01, Scotsman. Stop is a close or obvious tank below 5.88. Risk: a loss of about 2%. Lousy market again today. We'll see....good luck to you and to those long DNDN!
DNDN currently is BID 6.01...ASK 6.02
Nice one Melf Elf ;)
But this is getting uglier still - all I see is red right now, however the morning sell-off looks like it may have abated, lets hope so!! And maybe there arre some bargains to be had out there :)
Joined you guys at $6.05. ;) Been bargain hunting today. Bought VICL and AMD also although I'm not convinced about AMD. Keeping tight stops on all of them. ;D Good luck to us!!!
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 12, 2005, 10:50:34 AM
But this is getting uglier still - all I see is red right now,
Scotsman,
Ugly is right! Yeesh.
Quotehowever the morning sell-off looks like it may have abated, lets hope so!!
That's what I was looking for, too. "Down and dirty," in the morning, then a nice rally into the close on a bullish hammer. No abatement. Not pretty. :'(
QuoteJoined you guys at $6.05.
I hope that the trade works out for us, Basonista. I didn't like yesterday's up trendline break on the log chart. But, it held basis the linear chart (below).
What I did like is that last Friday's low of 5.94 held. The general market is much lower than it was last Friday, so DNDN is showing good relative strength. So far.
The up trendline on the linear chart comes in today at 5.934, just below last Friday's low of 5.94. What I'm thinking now is that... if the up trendline on the log chart didn't hold (it didn't)...and if last Friday's low of 5.94 doesn't hold ... and if the up trendline on the linear chart (below) at 5.934 doesn't hold ...
...what makes me think that 5.88...5.89...5.90 will hold ??? ??? ???
I'd
really like to see that up trendline on the linear chart hold.
Quote
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 13, 2005, 03:30:37 AM
What I did like is that last Friday's low of 5.94 held. The general market is much lower than it was last Friday, so DNDN is showing good relative strength. So far.
Forget that!
QuoteWhat I'm thinking now is that... if the up trendline on the log chart didn't hold (it didn't)...and if last Friday's low of 5.94 doesn't hold ... and if the up trendline on the linear chart (below) at 5.934 doesn't hold ...
...what makes me think that 5.88...5.89...5.90 will hold ??? ??? ???
The low so far today,
naturally, is the ubiquitous
5.88, and since we've broken the up trendline on BOTH the log and the linear charts (intraday on the latter), who knows if it will hold ???
QuoteThe up trendline on the linear chart comes in today at 5.934, just below last Friday's low of 5.94.
DNDN currently is BID 5.93...ASK 5.94. These devils don't make this easy, do they? >:D
Quote
I'd really like to see that up trendline on the linear chart hold.
I'm gone if it doesn't.
But we seem to have gotten the bounce off our ubiquitous support level, which was what we were looking for all along - now posting 6.02.
I think we should se DNDN gain a bit more ground here, but it will be a struggle for it to break the 6.30s in coming days.
All I can say as that it is damn good that it didn't break down from support like so many others have recently. At least that bodes well ;)
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 13, 2005, 02:22:56 PM
But we seem to have gotten the bounce off our ubiquitous support level, which was what we were looking for all along
I guess it was, wasn't it?! ::) ;D
That's okay that we broke the trendline early to go down there and test the 5.88, as long we hold now above that trendline.
QuoteI think we should se DNDN gain a bit more ground here, but it will be a struggle for it to break the 6.30s in coming days.
Yeah, and the 6.40s. At least we've got a better base from which to attack that resistance. The rally from last Friday's "V-bottom" low of 5.94 was straight up and got smacked at 6.40 - 6.44, the bottom of mid-September resistance, which often happens to those "V-bottoms."
QuoteAll I can say as that it is damn good that it didn't break down from support like so many others have recently.
That's for sure.
Quote At least that bodes well ;)
Let's hope so! ;D
I'd love to see a close at 6.12 or above. That was yesterday's high, and would give us a Bullish Engulfing Pattern.
Not likely, though. DNDN currently is BID 6.03...ASK 6.04
EDIT: Hold all tickets. DNDN now is BID..6.10...ASK 6.11 :D
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 13, 2005, 03:47:11 PM
EDIT: Hold all tickets. DNDN now is BID..6.10...ASK 6.11 :D
Darn! >:(
We got 4,300 shares at 6.13 at 3:59:57, but then several trades of a few hundred shares at 6.11. Close was 6.11.
That's fine. At least we're above the trendline, and we ain't out of the woods anyway, Yogi Bear.
;D
True,
but having cut a few losses (notably EGHT) and picked up VPHM, which filled a gap and got a good bounce off suppport, and also a phenomenal day for AAPL, recouping more than it lost post-earnings, my portfolio is starting to look up againn ;D
I'm almost back to where I was 2 weeks ago!!
I think today's bounce back has confirmed the 5.88 level as support, and that, regardless of the break of trendlines, will be my close out level for now. We may get another pullback as we did from the nice marubozu the other day, but here's hoping that this more conservative gain can hold, and we will get a more steady rise back towards $7.
There is still that biotech conference on the horizon at the end of the month, and it sounds like they may have some results to present there - lets hope its positive!!
a slightly happier Scotsman ;)
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 13, 2005, 04:18:15 PM
I think today's bounce back has confirmed the 5.88 level as support, and that, regardless of the break of trendlines, will be my close out level for now.
Scotsman,
You're gonna love this: remember when we made the low at
5.88 around 10:00AM on Thursday morning, then rallied to 6.10, then came all the back to the low around 1:00PM?
I was wondering what the heck it was doing, going back down to re-test
5.88. We already did that!
It wasn't until the end of the day that I noticed that the 1:00PM low was
5.89!
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=10&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
I thought that was pretty cool, since we talked so much about
5.88 - 5.89 being the highs of the September Ascending Triangle. On Thursday, DNDN violated the up trendline to go down and validate BOTH of those prices as support.
QuoteWe may get another pullback as we did from the nice marubozu the other day,
Right you were!
We sold off a little on Friday to
6.05 (the bullish doji star on the 10-minute chart above). Why a selloff to
6.05 when we should be getting going to the upside, darn it?
When I downloaded the data tonight, I noticed that the early morning dip to the
6.05 low was to re-validate the up trendline that was broken to validate
5.88 - 5.89 support.
Cool, huh?! 8)
6.05 also is important because that's where Basonista got in. He brought us good luck!
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 13, 2005, 04:07:10 PM
That's fine. At least we're above the trendline, and we ain't out of the woods anyway, Yogi Bear. ;D
The MACD technical indicator is one of the reasons that I made that statement. I've enumerated my points on the MACD chart below, so you can follow along, if you're interested in the TA side of things. This is pretty tedious and boring, otherwise.
1. After DNDN "apparently" broke down on August 8 (it broke below its up trendline on the log chart), it consolidated and formed a small Ascending Triangle. The top was 5.88 - 5.89.
While the Ascending Triangle was forming, look what MACD was doing (first set of vertical blue lines). It stopped going down, flattened out, then crossed above its signal line (dotted red line).
Some automatically will say that "MACD just gave a Buy Signal." Be careful with that. Yes, it gave a bullish crossover, but it occurred below zero. Those "Buy Signals" often fail, especially if the stock is in a downtrend, or if the stock is "suspect."
DNDN was "suspect." It had broken an up trendline, and the jury was still out. It's fine if you want to take that MACD crossover as a buy with a stop below last support, but I wouldn't take it as a Buy Signal if a stock were in a clear downtrend, making lower lows, with no pattern, etc.
You can get clobbered taking those signals in a downtrend.
What you want when you get MACD "Buy Signals" is some idea from the chart that it's holding support, or preferably, a pattern breakout.
MACD crossed above the zero line on September 1. Many technicians use that as a Buy Signal. What was the stock doing? DNDN printed 5.90 that day, above the 5.88-5.89 highs of the Ascending Triangle.
That was a "Buy Signal" when you've MACD crossing above the zero line, accompanied by a pattern breakout on the chart.
I wasn't watching DNDN at that point, dang it. :'(
2. MACD double topped on September 20, five days after DNDN made a new high at 7.37. MACD was going higher on momentum, but DNDN didn't go any higher.
September 23, MACD crossed below its signal line. Some will say "MACD gave a Sell Signal." Be careful with that. It wasn't a Sell Signal. DNDN made a LOW on September 23 at 6.40, then it rallied almost 10%, back to 7.00.
Sometimes those do turn out to be outright Sell Signals, but you've really got to view them in context with the chart and other indicators that you like.
3. What often is a good Sell Signal, is when the MACD tries to rally back to the declining signal line, then fails at the signal line (or fails slightly above or below it), like it did when DNDN rallied to 7.00 on October 4.
When the MACD gets near that declining signal line, watch for the low of that trading day to get taken out. The low on October 4 was 6.79. When 6.78 gets printed (known as a "Sell Pivot"), that's often a good sign that the stock is in trouble. Not always. These signals have to be used in context with what's going on in the chart.
In the chart, October 4 was an Inverted Hangman, so there was a clue. October 5 was a long black candle (after it took out 6.79), as MACD ticked down (failure) at the signal line. Another good clue.
Looking at that MACD failure, we can see why it seemed like "they pulled the plug" when DNDN sank from 7.00 to 5.94 that week.
4. Look where the MACD is now. It's flattened out, but the signal line still is way up there, and declining sharply. It looks like we're going to need some time (second set of vertical blue lines) for the MACD to consolidate before it can "get in gear," like it did in late August (first set of vertical blue lines) before the September 1 breakout.
If DNDN takes off to the upside right now, picture what the MACD is going to do. It's going to go running up to the declining signal line, and try to bang its way right through it. It "could" do that, especially on some fabulous news, but it otherwise would likely get smacked at/near the declining signal line.
With the MACD so badly positioned here, what I'd like to see is a "steady as she goes" move higher to get out of harm's way of the up trendlines, with some consolidation to give the MACD a chance to get properly postioned. It's boring, I know, but it doesn't look "ready to rock," like it did at the September 1 breakout of the Ascending Triangle.
It's interesting that an upward consolidation period here would have us ready, technically, for any good new out of the October 30 conference in Paris.
I hope that this wasn't too boring. We need a face on the toolbar that YAWNS.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 15, 2005, 01:52:38 AM
6.05 also is important because that's where Basonista got in. He brought us good luck!
Usually I'm bad luck! ;) Maybe this will mark a bounce off my trendline! :D
Melf Elf,
Thanks very much for the last two posts - as ever, not boring at all, just detailed explanation, and I can follow your thinking well on this one. In particular, your analysis of the MACD indicator is very useful to me - I have been learning about using indicators like MACD and RSI to guage thee readiness of a stock to make a move, but such a detailed analysis really helps a lot :)
It also shows exactly how you need to take these indicators in context of other aspects of the chart pattern to get an idea of why things historically may have happened, but also to look to the future, which is what we all want to do, right? ;D
Believe me, I have learned so much from your analysis and explanations, and regularly keep an eye out for all your posts now to see what else I can learn, even when I am not invested in these positions. In a funny way, I think thesse ones you can be even more objective about because yoou don't *want* it to do something.
But there you go, looks llike DNDN is in a "sit tight for now" phase - but perhaps we should keep an eye out for signs that it might retrace again to test support - a second failed MACD crossover might show this - but lets hope we'll see a gradual consolidation next week ;)
I'm quite happy this weekend with where things ended up as of friday - despite missing out on the opportunity to make some serious cash on HYRF's swing, I'm now in a position where all my trades are in positive territory - some only just, but makes a great change from seeing all red, as the last few weeks. The market may be getting tougher, but lets not forget that there are still companies with great stories set to do great things, and if yoou can find em and ride em, theere is always money to be made ;D
Have a nice one Melf Elf, and Basonista, glad you joined the party ;)
Quote from: basonista on October 15, 2005, 07:56:17 AM
Maybe this will mark a bounce off my trendline! :D
Which forevermore shall be known as "The Basonista Trendline."
Now, that sounds like a trendline that I never would want to cross. We we a face on the toolbar with its hair standing on end...BE VERY AFRAID.
;D
QuoteIn particular, your analysis of the MACD indicator is very useful to me - I have been learning about using indicators like MACD and RSI to guage thee readiness of a stock to make a move,
Scotsman,
I'll post a note to you in the AAPL folder re: its MACD.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 16, 2005, 02:07:22 PM
Quote from: basonista on October 15, 2005, 07:56:17 AM
Maybe this will mark a bounce off my trendline! :D
Which forevermore shall be known as "The Basonista Trendline."
Now, that sounds like a trendline that I never would want to cross. We we a face on the toolbar with its hair standing on end...BE VERY AFRAID.
Hehe, it's my wife's trendline that I fear crossing! When it's one of those days, watch out! ;)
Seriously, your explanation on the application of MACD on both AAPL and DNDN is very interesting. I'm sure I'm not as far along on educating myself on trading as Scottish but seeing how real life investors do it is invaluable.
What other indicators do you use in combination with the MACD as you do your stock analysis? Is the calculation of the Kumos that you use something unique to Metastock or are there other programs that will display it?
After reading your posts on MACD, I have looked at some of my holdings to see how they stack up keeping the MACD indicator in mind. In particular I looked at BRVO, EYII and HYRF. I suppose a post in each of those threads would be appropriate but I would be very interested and greatly appreciative if you could comment on what I have been able to come up with.
HYRF's action on Friday has me concerned with the Engulfing Bearish candle in combination with the MACD crossover. I don't think this is a sell signal by itself and know the Engulfing Bearish candle needs confirmation to indicate trend reversal. What is your read on the MACD crossover with Friday's action? Would you consider the flattening of the MACD in the last 8 trading days a potential signal that the trend may be over or would you think it is more an indication that consolidation is taking place?
In hindsight, BRVO would have been a sell after it printed the high of $1.42 in mid-July if you went strictly by the candlestick patterns in conjuction with the MACD crossover. Or would it? BRVO has been bearish ever since that high so what would you look for to determine a good sell point there? Would you consider the gradual uptrend in the MACD (contrary to the downtrend in the chart) as an encouraging sign of bullishness to come?
Something as volatile and fast moving as EYII seems more difficult to use standard indicators to determine buy and sell points. How would you read the MACD on a chart like that?
I have applauded you many times, Melf Elf and will do so many more times I'm sure! You are certainly one of the great assets to this board! I look forward to reading and learning from your posts for some time to come! ;D
Quote from: basonista on October 16, 2005, 09:05:24 PM
What other indicators do you use in combination with the MACD as you do your stock analysis?
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, some Fibonacci-related measures of relative strength, Fibonacci retracement levels, volume... that's really about it. Every technical analyst is different. Some use tons of indicators, and that works for them. For me, the simpler the better.
I rely much more on chart patterns, trendlines, and support and resistance levels, much of what we've been doing here with our analysis of DNDN. One of the reasons that I don't use alot of indicators is that if, for example, DNDN had taken out 5.88-5.89 support, I would have sold it, regardless of what any indicator looked like.
QuoteIs the calculation of the Kumos that you use something unique to Metastock or are there other programs that will display it?
Sorry, I don't know. I'm not familiar with any other programs. Metastock does all of the calculating for you, though.
QuoteAfter reading your posts on MACD, I have looked at some of my holdings to see how they stack up keeping the MACD indicator in mind. In particular I looked at BRVO, EYII and HYRF. I suppose a post in each of those threads would be appropriate but I would be very interested and greatly appreciative if you could comment on what I have been able to come up with.
The only one of those with which I am familiar is BRVO, and since I get pressed for time looking at all of the various stocks that I'm following, I'll limit my comments to that one. (Also, I don't play penny stocks).
QuoteIn hindsight, BRVO would have been a sell after it printed the high of $1.42 in mid-July if you went strictly by the candlestick patterns in conjuction with the MACD crossover. Or would it?
I thought it was a sell. There were two bearish engulfing patterns on June 28 and July 14, and those two occurred on the heaviest volume days for the move. In addition, there was an Bearish Evening Star Pattern that was put in on August 3 when the stock closed at 1.15. MACD ticked back below its signal line the following day. The stock also was trading in a Bearish Channel.
That's a good example of looking at a combination of things to determine whether or not you want to be long a stock (or short).
QuoteBRVO has been bearish ever since that high so what would you look for to determine a good sell point there?
That has to be determined by each individual because, as you say, BRVO is in a bearish trend and good sell points already have passed.
QuoteWould you consider the gradual uptrend in the MACD (contrary to the downtrend in the chart) as an encouraging sign of bullishness to come?
That can be a deadly combination for the very reason that you suggest: it looks VERY encouraging for technical indicators to keep improving as the stock goes down, but when a stock is in a bear trend, these "positive divergences" can be a red herring (something that distracts from what's really taking place).
Let me show you.
In the KKD chart, there are FOUR positive divergences in the MACD (see chart below). It looks VERY encouraging. I've listed the stock's price that coincides with each divergence. The stock continued to go lower...lower..lower. It's now south of $5. Ugh! Those postive divergences were not bullish!
BRVO has had TWO positive divergences in the MACD: September 15 and September 28. On October 13, however, BRVO broke below a Symmetrical Triangle and went to a new low for the move at $0.47, so it's clear that those positive divergences in the MACD were not buy signals.
On Friday, BRVO moved back up to the broken Symmetrical Triangle on a THIRD postive divergence in the MACD. "Could" go higher, but until price confirms what MACD is doing, the MACD "buy signals" are bull traps.
I hope that any of that helps, and thank you for the kind words, Basonista.
Thanks for your input, Melf. One thing I have learned in my short time trading is that it is like most things in life - the more you learn, the less you realize you know. Thanks alot for helping me along the path of education! ;D
I've come to 3onfire recently and have been doing some backlog research for previous picks. Saw this DNDN thread and enjoying your intensive TA work (new to stocks myself, but learning alot here).
I'm thinking about buying DNDN since they will be announcing the trial results in Paris soon. Since there is a risk that the results might not be good and the stock will plummet, do you guys (Melf Elf, Scott, etc) think that it would be better to purchase an option, maybe a backspread, to limit the downside potential.? How are you dealing with this possibility?
Thanks and keep this thread going. I'm definately reading. ;D
logocovet,
I bought in at 6.16, which in hindsight was not ideal, but not too bad either. As the ascending trendline we were working with was broken last week, I'm not paying as much attention to it as I was, but am considering a close below 5.88 as my exit signal. This was the level that has been tested recently, and as Melf Elf's posts detail, looks like it shows support. This also gives me a risk of about 5%, which I can handle.
As far as what is coming is concerned, the fact that they've announced they will be presenting results at the conference at the end of the month suggests that it could be good, but really who knows. The big worry is that with biotechs, and especially one like DNDN which has a heavy short position, bad results or no results could cause it to tank way below my exit level (I haven't/can't set a physical stop).
But at the moment, that's the risk I'm willing to deal with. As for you, yoou can make your own decisions on this one, but an entry between 6-6.15 would probably give you a reasonable risk/reeward ratio.
Hope that helps ;)
todays chart.... ;)
Wow!
Havee you guys seen how much institutional interest there has been in DNDn lately??? This is just for the past week, but the past month is intense :o
Is on the buy side and the sell side, and to me it looks like it is mirrored almost perfectly - one institution selling out to another?? not sure what's going on here, except we know that there are some big boys at play here already....
Welcome to the thread, logocovet. I don't play options at all, so I can't comment on that.
In the "We ain't out of the woods yet, Yogi Bear" Department, that 6.40 area sure is providing resistance, isn't it? A couple of reasons:
1. That was the area of the lows in the middle of September. There were seven trading session during which DNDN traded between 6.40-6.80.
2. While DNDN has gone down and tested 5.88-5.89 and The Basonita Trendline, the Kumo has inverted on us, and now is overhead at 6.37-6.51, so that's resistance, too.
Often, I talk about a basing formation being good enough to attack resistance. After DNDN broke below 6.40 support and went down to 5.94, it raced right back up to 6.44 and got smacked.
That's called a "V" bottom. Straight down...straight back up. Those are weak bottoms.
We've now traded for seven sessions between 5.88 and 6.44, equaling the seven days in September that we traded between 6.40 and 6.80. So, picture 6.40ish being "the line of scrimmage." The bears are on defense (6.40-6.80 resistance); we bulls are on offense (5.88-6.40 support).
On the hourly chart below, you can see that we've got the possibility of an Inverse H&S pattern to go up against that 6.40-6.80 resistance. The neckline is the 6.44 high last week and yesterday's high of 6.40.
The left shoulder is Oct 7 5.94 low and yesterday's 6.00 low. The head is the 5.88 low.
We need to get above that 6.40-6.44 "line of scrimmage" :D
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=60&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
For those folliowing this thread, the reason that I go into so much detail is because I know that I am lousy at predicting anything like what effect earnings will have on a stock, or in DNDN's case, what effect news from the Paris Conference will have on the stock. I have absolutely no idea.
What I can know is where trendlines are, where "the line of scrimmage" is, where I want to enter a stock, where my stop is, etc. As far as "Is this a good time to enter?" is concerned, Scotsman gave a great answer (applauded). Each of us has to decide, based on our understanding of the trade, how much risk we want to take.
In this trade, I didn't want much risk. I entered at 6.01 with my stop below 5.88-5.89. Risk: a loss of 2% (barring a gap down). It took me a few days to get my price, and if I hadn't gotten it, I would have passed on the trade. In other words, I don't feel that I have to own DNDN, or any other stock. I view it strictly from a risk/reward perspective.
Others of you are better than I at assessing the fundamentals of DNDN, the impact of the Paris conference, etc. Still, if you enter the stock or already have, I would suggest that you determine how much risk you want to take (where to enter...where to exit); some amount with which you are comfortable, such as Scotsman shared with us.
By the way, Scotsman, interesting info about institutional trading. Yesterday, somebody wanted out on that drop from 6.40 to 6.00. 213,000 shares traded in that 5 minute bar, much more than average.
Final comment: Basis the linear chart, the Basonista trendline held yesterday by a few cents.
;D
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 17, 2005, 08:53:58 PM
Wow!
Havee you guys seen how much institutional interest there has been in DNDn lately??? This is just for the past week, but the past month is intense :o
Is on the buy side and the sell side, and to me it looks like it is mirrored almost perfectly - one institution selling out to another?? not sure what's going on here, except we know that there are some big boys at play here already....
There has always been the theory, with the big short interest and with UBS having a vendetta against DNDN, that market capping is occurring and that either the big buyer and seller are one and the same or are partners hiding the activity by co-ordinating their sales and purchases to balance out to a net "no change in position" at the end of the day. Would not surprise me :-X
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 18, 2005, 02:39:37 AM
Welcome to the thread, logocovet.
Others of you are better than I at assessing the fundamentals of DNDN, the impact of the Paris conference, etc.
Logo, I am long time holder and observer. Time frame and entry point is important for DNDN. Given the history I expect good news in Paris. Stock price, if history holds true, will meander upwards towards the conference and may pop up the day before or of the conference, then will get walked back down by institutional traders (or if the news is good enough, a downgrade will occur). This is a strange stock. I am contemplating actually selling into the Paris news if a pop occurs and trying to get back in at a lower basis myself.....
Thanks for everyone's input.
This seems like an odd stock indeed. I've been reading the Yahoo message board to get the "feel" of the investors in this stock. I originally thought the main factor affecting the price of DNDN was whether they will have good trial results. It seems to be much more complicated than that. The shorts seem to rule this stock big time. The message board was a flip side of a normal board. The core investors were shorts. You'd think that the shorts would be covering as the Paris date neared. But no. One poster said he'd be shorting the stock up until the trial results and then afterwards too. I'm keeping DNDN on watch for now. ???
We can't say that we're surprised with the lackluster action in DNDN, given the problems with MACD and the Inverted Kumo (Cloud) that we discussed at the weekend. We also continue to have the problem of "Do we follow the log chart or the linear chart?"
Basis the log chart below, DNDN violated the Basonista trendline intraday on Monday, closed below it on Tuesday, and closed right at (now resistance) yesterday.
Basis the linear chart, however, we've had intraday violations of the Basonista Trendline, but it looks okay.
Had the NASDAQ Composite not reversed yesterday and closed above 2074 resistance, I would have dumped DNDN. I still might, and will post it if I do.
I'll post the linear chart and NASDAQ charts separately for easier viewing.
Linear Chart and The Basonista Trendline.
The NASDAQ Composite failed early this week at DOUBLE resistance at 2074, which was the bottom of the broken channel and the 200 DMA. Yesterday, it reversed higher and closed back above the 200DMA and got back inside the channel, getting out of harm's way.
If this is going to turn into a H&S top, the top of the left shoulder is 2106. Traditionally, the right shoulder in the pattern does not exceed the high of the left shoulder, although some technicians allow for it.
Either way, what is most important is that we don't put in any kind of right shoulder, and then break the neckline. That could get ugly.
Well, as far as I can tell, DNDN hasn't invalidated our base trendline YET, but it sure better go up tomorrow, otherwise we gotta say goodbye :'(
Volume does seem to be low down here, and the price range is narrowing. Lets hope that she can get a good bounce off our support, which I put at 5.94-5.95 tomorrow am. a sustained break above 6.20 would be great, as its been consistent resistance over the last few trading days. The 10 day 15 min chart gives a pretty good idea of whats happening, and also suggests a symmetrical triangle formation, possible with the lower descending trendline.
Well, we'll see in the morning hope everyone is happy after quite a rough day in the woods ;D
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 21, 2005, 02:35:47 AM
Well, as far as I can tell, DNDN hasn't invalidated our base trendline YET,
Scotsman,
Right. It violated the Basonista Trendline again intraday, but held it at the close by about two cents.
Quotebut it sure better go up tomorrow, otherwise we gotta say goodbye :'(
Yesterday's candlestick is a Bullish Inverted Hammer, but we need upside confirmation. The NASDAQ Composite didn't help us at all. It failed at next resistance above 2074, then closed back below 2074. >:(
Well it looks like DNDN broke through both the horizontal resistance at 6.20, which has been dogging us lately and the short term descending trendline. next resistance to tackle is at 6.30, then at 6.40 - still a bit of an uphill struggle on this one. But we should have some news from the Paris conference next week, and may see a bit of a run into that. Hopefully it is wwhat the DNDN long-timers have been waiting for.
Anyway, here's the short term chart.
I put in an order to buy 800 shares @ the open, with a 10% stop. The options on DNDN are very pricey so I decided that this is the better play. Can't wait any longer as the Paris conference is only days away. If I didn't buy and missed the jump due to good trial results (which they likely will be), I'd have to committ seppuku out of shame. :)
Hey Scot, seem to be bumping into you everywhere, although u are ubiquitous on 3SOF. Hope u do well !
Perhaps I make myself heard a little too much!! 3SOF is turning into an obsession :o
Well, glad you got in today, adn to be honest, if you got in at the open today, you got in at a better position than I did, and I've been sitting on this for over 2 weeks!!
Anyway, I think today's movement was really good, just setting us up for the rest of the week. Depending on which trendline you take (from closes or highs), DNDN broke through to hit resistance at 6.30, where it closed at the high of the day ;D Always nice when it does that. Having had another look at the chart this evening, I think the key area to break through and hold is the 6.45-6.55 range. This coincides with the highs and lows of previous short term trading ranges, as well as the other (high) descending trendline. We break that one, and I think we should have a good run into this conference announcement.
Lets all just hope we don't see the low 6s again, man that was tedious :P (But saying that, when I bought in, I promised I would stick DNDN out for exactly the same reasons you mentioned earlier, so has been a nice little lesson for me in patience ::))
Here's the chart as I see it - Melf Elf, where are you ??? ??? ???
(we miss your words of wisdom - have the raging villagers over at WSCI carried you away?)
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 24, 2005, 11:13:08 PM
Melf Elf, where are you ??? ??? ???
Here I yam. (we need a Popeye face on the toolbar). :D
Quote
Lets all just hope we don't see the low 6s again, man that was tedious :P
No kidding! I'm tired of seeing The Basonista Trendline get violated intraday. :'(
QuoteI think the key area to break through and hold is the 6.45-6.55 range.
Yeah, lots of resistance overhead. What I like about the past two weeks (although boring) is that 5.88-5.89 support has held so far, The Basonista Trendline has held on a closing basis, and we've been bulilding a base from which to attack resistance.
Resistance: (6.37 - 6.6075)
6.37 - Bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)
6.40 - September 23 low and October 17 high
6.44 - Kijun-Sen (thick red line) and October 10 and 11 highs
6.57 - Down trendline off the September 15 high
6.6075 - Top of the Kumo (Cloud)
I probably will sell on a rally into resistance, and try to re-enter if it pulls back.
Hi Melf Elf, welcome back. I always like reading your posts (although alot of it goes above my head). Just that much more to learn.
Anyway I was reading in the Seagate thread that you said you were very bearish on this market (seems David was/is too). When you say this, do you mean short term, mid-term, or long term?
When David first said he was very bearish on the market and reduced 3SOF to just the BRVO position, I followed and sold alot of my postions. But now, David has over 9 positions in the portfolio. I guess he meant that the market was bearish in the immediate short term, or didi he?
Sorry if this is off topic, but it is relevant to my willingness to take new positons.
I'm in on DNDN @ 6.34. Bought some for my parent's account too (thye have trusted their portfolio to my expertise ;).) Unfortunately, my parent's portfolio looks like a Greek tragedy (United Airlines, Lucent, Novell, all from before toe tech crash). Lets hope 3SOF can help them too. Hope the DNDN shorts start to evaculate as Paris nears. I don't understand why UBS and others are so dedicated to their short position on DNDN considering how much they can get burned if the trials are good. There must be more lucrative short positions to take on other biotechs. ???
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 25, 2005, 06:40:16 AM
What I like about the past two weeks (although boring) is that 5.88-5.89 support has held so far, The Basonista Trendline has held on a closing basis, and we've been bulilding a base from which to attack resistance.
DNDN is doing a nice job of attacking resistance today.
Quote
Resistance: (6.37 - 6.6075)
6.37 - Bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)
6.40 - September 23 low and October 17 high
6.44 - Kijun-Sen (thick red line) and October 10 and 11 highs
We've gotten through those resistance levels, and we have a "W"-bottom breakout above 6.40-6.44, which has been key resistance llately.
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=60&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
Quote
6.57 - Down trendline off the September 15 high
6.6075 - Top of the Kumo (Cloud)
The breakout above 6.40-6.44 measures well above the 6.57-6.6075 resistance levels. Conservatively, I use the right side of the "W," which is the October 19 low of 5.92.
Math:
6.40 (the middle of the "W") - 5.92 (the right leg of the "W") = 0.48 points.
0.48 points + 6.40 = Target: 6.88
NOTE: the left leg of the "W" is the October 13 low of 5.88.
If we get through 6.57-6.60 resistance, though, that's another breakout.
Looks good. I'm still thinking about selling into the rally and trying to buy it back lower, if I can.
High so far today is 6.51. DNDN currently is BID 6,48...ASK 6.51
Quote
Quote
I'm right with you Melf Elf,
currently attacking resistance at 6.50-6.51
Go DNDN ;D ;D ;D
About bloody time :D
Quote from: logocovet on October 25, 2005, 09:45:39 AM
Anyway I was reading in the Seagate thread that you said you were very bearish on this market (seems David was/is too). When you say this, do you mean short term, mid-term, or long term?
Hi, logocovet!
David would have to speak for himself. I posted my concerns for the NASDAQ on the Stock Picks Board under "INTC: Market Proxy?" The NASDAQ was acting bearish, for the reasons that I stated.
2074 had become DOUBLE resistance. Next resistance was 2093. Then 2106.
On Friday, the NASDAQ traded between 2074 and 2091, right between those first two levels. 2074, being the low of the day, became SUPPORT on Friday, which was good, but we needed also to get above 2093, and then above 2106, which was the high of a "possible" right shouler on June 23, of a "possible" H&S Top.
We cleared all of those resistance levels yesterday, which is a big relief and puts us out of danger, at least temporarily.
QuoteWhen David first said he was very bearish on the market and reduced 3SOF to just the BRVO position
I don't know when David turned bearish, but I don't blame him. Alot of stocks broke support (like STX that you mentioned).
Quote Unfortunately, my parent's portfolio looks like a Greek tragedy (United Airlines, Lucent, Novell, all from before toe tech crash). Lets hope 3SOF can help them too.
I hope so, too. Good luck!
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 25, 2005, 11:25:02 AM
Go DNDN ;D ;D ;D
About bloody time :D
It sure is about bloody time, Scotsman! :D
Quote
6.57 - Down trendline off the September 15 high
6.6075 - Top of the Kumo (Cloud)
Bought at 6.01. Sold at 6.59, at the top of "last resistance." Gain: 9.6%
Geez, I didn't think DNDN would get through ALL of the resistance levels that we discussed this morning, but it's now BID 6.70...ASK 6.71.
That's okay. Combined with my July trade, I have a 20%+ gain in DNDN. Meanwhile, I hope that it goes to the moon for you guys! I've had alot of fun analyzing and discussing DNDN with all of you.
Good luck!
Cheers Melf Elf, has been a pleasure (as always :D)
I'm long on this one until the conference next week - I am pretty sure this is moving in anticipation of them announcing strong results, and will keep going until then - after all, its broken through every resistance level that has been giving us trouble for the last few weeks, so I think there's more to come.
Only time will tell ::)
Good trading though ;D
Hi guys,
I have been enjoying your hard work though silent the last couple of weeks. As the non-chartist long time observer, I suggest that you throw your charts out the window. This stock will rise until the conference, but it so far has always sold off hard afterwards ... no matter what the technicals might suggest. Good luck ... I have a bunch of this stuff and am happy to see the run start!
Hope this is the start of the short squeeze. I can't see the shorts being able to cover almost 14 million shares before the Paris conference (Oct 31- Nov 3). And there won't be many sellers for them to buy from. What long would see this position right before the conference?
Thanks for the analysis on the Nasdaq, Melf Elf. It's interesting how 2 technicians looking at the same chart can see 2 completely different market directions. If you're interested, this is the link of a good analysis that is contrary to yours:
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/bigideastocks/message/2621
Good luck wit DNDN everyone!
:)
Stock price needs to move up considerably ... my guess ... to squeeze. Though the short interest is huge, I suspect that a lot of shorting occurred when the stock was north of $10. That is when the number of shares short rose dramatically.
Quote from: logocovet on October 25, 2005, 02:13:42 PM
Thanks for the analysis on the Nasdaq, Melf Elf. It's interesting how 2 technicians looking at the same chart can see 2 completely different market directions.
logocovet,
Yeah, it is. I couldn't tell which way we were going, so I was in cautiion mode until that became a little clearer.
Quote
If you're interested, this is the link of a good analysis that is contrary to yours:
Thanks for the link. It didn't work since I'm not a member, so I don't know if the analyst to whom you refer is bullish or bearish, but no matter.
To summarize...my opinion is that the NASDAQ was starting to act bearish when it broke the channel, took out June support at 2039 (see chart) then couldn't get back above the 200DMA and back into the channel.
Now that it has, it's okay, as long as we don't break the recent low, which would look like an ugly H&S Top.
Quote from: bigdogs99999 on October 25, 2005, 01:35:45 PM
I suggest that you throw your charts out the window.
Never! :o
Remember that the charts didn't "tell me" to sell. In fact, the breakout above 6.40 this morning targeted 6.88, which I posted earlier. The decision to sell at the top of the resistance that I outlined this morning was my own decision, not anything that the chart "told me" to do. Some times that works out, and I can re-enter at a lower price...sometimes it doesn't, like today.
Just wanted to clarify the fact that when we're looking at charts, it's up to us to make make buy/sell decisions. The chart just gives us the "lines in the sand." Look how long the 6.40-6.44 "line in the sand"...."line of scrimmage" acted as resistance.
If I had sold DNDN at resistance at any other time since I bought the stock two weeks ago, I easily could have gotten back in at a lower price. This time, it didn't work out. Just want to make the point that analyzing a chart is a very different process from "How are you going to choose to play it? Entry? Stop? Exit?
See what I mean?
Meanwhile...congratulations guys...what a great day DNDN had! I'm really glad that all of you are making some $$$, and hope that you make lots more on this one!
Thanks for your sage advice here and elsewhere on 3sof, Melf! And don't ever throw your charts out the window!!! ;D They are about the only thing even resembling a crystal ball that we have on the markets.
I fully agree thhat there is nothing wrong with taking profits at a point where you determine it is appropriate. I did exactly the same thing today with HEB, after seeing it top out at 2.75 in the morning, hover in the 2.60s and then break 2.60, I decided it was time to lock in profits. No sooner did I sell, then HEB decided that it didn't like the 2.50s after all and jumped back up to 2.65. I'm very glad though, because at this point I realised that my sale was a mistake, forgot about the few pennies of lost profits, and jumped back in, and boy am I glad that I did!!
There are always reasons to take profits, to buy and sell (I mean for every buyer there's a seller out there!!), but it is your own choice as to whether you want that more than being in to see where it will go in the next hour/day/week. And if it still looks bullish, just get back in. Sure, if you had stayed in and not sold out, you'd be seeing the interim gain too, but as Melf Elf said, you can also time it to get a pull back, and as long as its going up, you're making money.
So here's to making more money on DNDN, it has been quite a day for a lot of people on 3SOF, I'm sure - just look at the runs in DNDN, HEB, NVAX, AVII, GIGA, VICL to name but a few.
See you all tomorrow for more fun, yee ha ;D ;D ;D
I don't want you guys to throw out your charts either! You are helping me immensely and if I had enough posts would applaud you both. ;D Just a warning not to get suckered into buying what might look like a very bullish breakout move this week ... the breakouts can look good but be false pretty easily on this stock. I paid too much for my shares (I have a small profit after today, but my buy point and reasoning were a mistake) by waiting for a perceived breakout to buy and before I had observed the stock long enough. Keep charting for me guys - THANKS!!! :D
DNDN has announced results for its most recent trial. They seem to corroborate the previous trial. However, no gap up this morning and stock has actually gone down a little after the open. I guess the shorts have been able to keep it down (short interest has actually increased in the last month).
UBS will likely come out to say that the results are flawed and the FDA will require another trial. Bank of America has yet to come out with an opinion. They can go either way (hopefully, they were waiting on this trial to come up with an opinion and will come out in favor of DNDN).
Many on the DNDN Yahoo Message Board is also awaiting a possible partner for DNDN. I'm sure any potential partners are also reviewing the trial results.
Stockpicker, since you started the original thread, can you interpret the trial results? Thanks.
This is the link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051031/nym066a.html?.v=1
I think we should just give it a little time... and stick with the trading plan. Mine continues to be to hold unless it breaks ascending support, which currently sits around 6.05. I will be very uncomfortable, however, if we see a move below 6.20, although I doubt that will happen. I think that once the shorts are through this morning, DNDN should rip. The results are excellent, which should be plain to see, and put DNDN squarely on track to getting this drug to market. Should have more news about this by weeks end. Just keep an eye on it this week ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 25, 2005, 12:08:59 PM
Bought at 6.01. Sold at 6.59, at the top of "last resistance." Gain: 9.6%
Bought DNDN back at 6.42, in the former 6.40 - 6.44 resistance area. Stop: a close below The Basonista Trendline, at about 6.09 for today. Risk: a loss of about 5%, which guarantees me a profit on the two trades, barring a gap down below my stop.
DNDN has been trading down for a few days, and it's now at a support area from the down trendline and the Kumo.
DNDN currently is BID 6.39...ASK 6.40
Well, it looks like the shorts have pushed hard this morning, and DNDN has lost over 6% on this news. Something seems fishy with this to me - when you look at the volume, there have been 355,000 "buy" shares and 362,000 "sell" shares, so someone out there is definitely buying into this weakness, and the overwhelming selling pressure isn't there to push the stock down this much. Not really sure how they manage to manipulate it like this. But there has definitely been institutional buying interest this morning
The CC is happening right now, and we seem to have bottomed at 6.14. Let's see whether we get the turnaround.
Scotsman,
Man, I didn't think we'd tank like this, below that 6.40-644 support area. The bottom of the Kumo is 6.37. We're now well below all of that support. :'(
The Basonista Trendline for today comes in at 6.09981, or 6.10. I'm out if we're going to close below there, or if we do much more tanking. The low so far is 6.06, so we've violated it intraday, per usual.
Well we got the hit of my trendline at 6.05-6.06 (maybe slightly different to yours Melf Elf) and at present it sounds like there arre some very heavy block sells around 6.13-6.14, but the good news is that they are being chewed through as we speak, and once they're gone, we should see a push to the upside. I mean just look at the numbers - at present we have about 730k buys vs. 475k sells for the day and the price has dropped by almost 7% as I write. There is a huge amount of buying going on at this level, and I think that it will rocket through the rest of the week.
A shame support broke this morning but I think that the tide is turning, and as I wrote this, I just saw that the price finally broke through 6.13-6.14 ;D ;D
Go DNDN!!!
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 31, 2005, 01:35:08 PM
Well we got the hit of my trendline at 6.05-6.06 (maybe slightly different to yours Melf Elf)
Scotsman,
Yeah, I never moved the trendline under the October lows, so mine's a little higher than yours. That's another one of those little "technical problems:" should I move the trendline, or not? I left it because all of the opens and closes remained above it.
Either way, today sure wasn't a good day, closing near the low at, 6.15, on almost 2 million shares. And now that 6.37-6.44 area is resistance again. Ugh...
Oh, well...the trading day is done...I'm going Trick Or Treating! Happy Halloween! :D
Quote
well DNDN got hammered again this morning, and we're now back at old support 5.88-5.89. Ugh :'(
I'm still holding, and simply can't believe it has taken such a beating considering the excellent news, but there you go, it's the market, and the shorts have control on this one.
As I wrote this DNDN just broke through this support. I don\'t think its gonna come back, and think I will have to sell :P
I'm still holding. Down to 5.70 as I am typing. ??? Very frustrating to have good news and stock tanks. This isn't even sell the news. At least in that case we would've seen a runup to the news. This has just been sell no matter what. >:(
I would really appreciate an objective post about the trial results from anyone. I've heard it spun both ways.
1(positive) The results eaffirm the earlier trial that Provegene increases survival time. The reason this trial didn't show as much a difference in survival time is because of the large crossover rate. Of the patients that did not crossover, on 5% survived past 36 month.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076683&tid=cege&sid=7076683&mid=22587
2(negative) This trial is not statistically significant in TTP. The FDA will need more trials for approval.
http://tinyurl.com/7nmbz%20.
Lastly, read from Yahoo board that UBS has lowered their price target. Don't know if they are just trying to manipulate the price (they have a huge short position), or they have an actual point. I think this cold account for today's drup. This is from UBS:
UBS Investment Research
Dendreon Corp.
D9902A Data Presented - Thesis
Unchanged
! D9902A results and integrated analysis presented
Although Dendreon provided more detailed data from the Provenge D9902A trial
in AIPC, as well as the integrated data from the D9901 and D9902A trials, the
salient points remain, in our view. Neither the D9901 trial nor the D9902A trial
achieved statistical significance on the primary endpoint, time to disease
progression, and the D9902A trial failed on survival in the ITT population as well.
! In our opinion, the Provenge filing strategy bears risk
We believe Dendreon's intention to file a BLA based on the 3-year survival
advantage in the D9901 trial, supported by the D9902A trial, bears significant risk.
In our view, this filing would be based on a secondary analysis from what was
effectively a failed trial, supported by results from another failed trial. Also, we
view the integrated data as redundant, and not likely to offer support.
! We maintain a confirmatory trial is likely to be necessary
We continue to believe a confirmatory trial will be necessary for a regulatory
approval for Provenge, likely the ongoing D9902B trial. However, this trial will be
amended and expanded, and timelines remain ambiguous.
! Valuation: Reduce 2 rating, $2.50 Price Target (from $3.00)
We value DNDN using a comparable company analysis to companies with a
similar risk
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 31, 2005, 10:31:16 AM
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 25, 2005, 12:08:59 PM
Bought at 6.01. Sold at 6.59, at the top of "last resistance." Gain: 9.6%
Bought DNDN back at 6.42, in the former 6.40 - 6.44 resistance area. Stop: a close below The Basonista Trendline, at about 6.09 for today. Risk: a loss of about 5%, which guarantees me a profit on the two trades, barring a gap down below my stop.
Sold DNDN at 5.76. Loss: 10.25%. OUCH!
Scotsman and logocovet,
I hung on this morning after the break of The Basonista Trendline, hoping for a bullish hammer, then a late day rally back above the trendline. That came down so fast, I didn't even out on the chance to sell to the break of 5.88-5.89.
>:(
Sorry you're ourt Melf Elf, always could use your analysis. Maybe you'll stick around and look for reentry? :)
I'm still in as I didn't have a stop-loss that I meant to put on this stock. (I didn't think it was necessary after the good trial results came out). Now that it seems to have bottomed for the day it seems pointless to get out. I still think chances of FDA approval are good. It makes logical sense that if the drug has little side effects and increases survivial, the FDA would go for it. If I had porstate cancer, I'd sure want it and be pressing the FDA to approve it.
Found an article:
Dendreon trials boost case for cancer drug
By Benjamin J. Romano
Seattle Times business reporter
Dendreon added more evidence Monday to its case for Provenge, the Seattle company's experimental prostate-cancer vaccine.
In a report detailing the combined results of two previously announced clinical trials, the company said that men who received its drug showed three-year survival rates more than twice those of patients receiving a placebo.
Of 147 men given Provenge in the late-stage clinical trials, 33 percent were alive three years later, compared with 15 percent of men on a placebo.
The final results of the combined trials were released at a cancer conference in Paris, quantifying what Dendreon had previously described as a "substantially greater" number of Provenge patients alive at the three-year follow-up.
"This pretty much nails it down," said Paul Latta, an analyst with McAdams Wright Ragen in Seattle. "It basically offers a substantial body of proof of the concept."
Investors, however, pushed Dendreon's stock down 43 cents, or 6.5 percent, to close at $6.16, on more than twice the usual volume. The stock has traded between $4.31 and $13.36 in the past year.
The skepticism could be because Dendreon is "rewriting the book" on immunotherapies such as Provenge, said David Miller, president of Biotech Stock Research in Seattle.
"No drug of this type has ever worked before," said Miller, in Paris for the announcement.
The treatment is designed to stimulate a patient's immune system to attack cancer. It has shown minimal side effects of fever and chills lasting a day or two. That compares to the nausea, hair loss and anemia that accompany the standard late-stage therapy, chemotherapy.
Dr. Mitchell Gold, Dendreon president and CEO, said during a conference call with analysts Monday that Provenge is "a better tolerated and less active form of therapy."
Dr. Celestia Higano, a University of Washington professor who presented the data, said the treatment could be a "useful alternative for men prior to initiating chemotherapy."
Dendreon plans to seek approval for the treatment from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration next year; a decision could come a year later.
More than 1 million men have prostate cancer in the United States. It kills 30,000 annually.
McAdams Wright Ragen, which maintains a market in Dendreon stock, projects Provenge sales of $225 million in 2007 if the drug gets FDA approval.
I wouldn't be surprised if down the line it does get approved, despite UBS's negative comments, and downgrades - really quite astounding ??? ???
But for now what is clear is that the bears/shorts are in control here. Earnings will be announced on Friday (which will be negative, but may give another opportunity to publicise results). The fact that the stock tanked on this news, and broke all low support today forced me to sell. I cannot hang on for more great news at some point in the future. I would advise you to think carefully about how much pain you are willing to take on this one logocovet, I only speak from recent experience of stocks that have broken key support, which I have held on too long.
Out at 5.80, and thoroughly disappointed. :P
Quote from: logocovet on November 01, 2005, 03:23:44 PM
Sorry you're ourt Melf Elf, always could use your analysis. Maybe you'll stick around and look for reentry? :)
logocovet,
Despite yesterday's tank in the stock, I've really enjoyed the exchanges with everyone on this thread. I'll keep my eye on DNDN, although I suspect that it's going to be on the back burner for awhile. Sorry that this one didn't work out for us.
QuoteI still think chances of FDA approval are good. It makes logical sense that if the drug has little side effects and increases survivial, the FDA would go for it. If I had porstate cancer, I'd sure want it and be pressing the FDA to approve it.
I would, too!
QuoteI'm still in as I didn't have a stop-loss that I meant to put on this stock. (I didn't think it was necessary after the good trial results came out).
DNDN, technically, has tough going from here. Support not only was broken, it was broken on fairly heavy volume. All of those support areas that we've discussed are now resistance. The 5.88-5.89. The Basonista Trendline. The 6.40-6.44 area, etc.
Up to you of course, but I agree with The Scotsman, from a technical point of view. You might want to consider selling on a rally back to resistance, then re-enter at a better price. Unless DNDN would get FDA approval, the chart doesn't look like its going anywhere for awhile.
Good luck with whatever you decide! ;D
I was holding this a least till the CC today. News seems to be good as DNDN beat estimates fwith a EPS of -33 cents. (Wow ;))
But seriously, this is good since it reduces the companies burn rate. This is key b/c they have no products (or close to none) and no partner. They have 127 mil in the bank. With a burn rate of about 20 mil a quarter, they can operate for another year and a half.
I've been reading alot of good posts on the Yahoo message board. DNDN has one of the most scientific boards I've ever read. I do believe the chances of approval are good. The key rests with increased survival rate and no side effects. The FDA is becoming more and more of a political entity. So, how could they deny people with prostate cancer this treatment? Some scientific explamation of how Provenge did not meet primary endpoint is not going to cut it in.
I have had some pretty poor results when I try to do short term trading. Until I have a better grasp of TA, I'll be a buy and hold trader on fundmentals. It has served me pretty well.
Having said that, I do have a $5 stop on DNDN. Can't let it get too far away.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on November 01, 2005, 10:34:29 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if down the line it does get approved, despite UBS's negative comments, and downgrades - really quite astounding ??? ???
But for now what is clear is that the bears/shorts are in control here.
Hi Scotsman and Logocovet,
SO very true that the Bears and shorts are in control but I wouldn't be surprised if they start loosing control soon. You can only hold down a stock with such a potential as DNDN for a certain time. As said before DNDN is executing their Businessplan with excellence and today they reached another milestone. FDA gave fast track status for Provenge (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3073). They would hardly do that if they were not impressed by the results from the Phase III trials.
DNDN got a little boost today from the fast track status approval but we have a long way to go before we are even close to fair value. It might take month or it might take a year but we will get there. Sooner or later even UBS will have to accept defeat.
Firmly agreed, Michael
Having sold out last week for a loss, based on the technical breakdown, which was truly appalling, and shows just how heavily manipulated this sock is, I realised this morning that there is no way they can keep DNDN down for much longer, and so bought back in. This is major news, and once some of the other analysts start to pick DNDN up, UBS will have to follow suit and revise their position.
I am very confident that DNDN will push upwards in the coming days, as it is currently below where it started last week, and the news of the last week has been simply huge. This time I do not intend to get shaken out by short sellers - they willl simply add more fule to the fire >:D >:D >:D
Thinking about it now, maybe DNDN should have been my pick for the stock picking contest!! Would have been a good one (and I don't think anyone did???)
Go DNDN!!
Finally, something good with my stocks. DNDN, CKCM, SVA, HEB all up today 8)
I'm curious how significant fast track status is? Is is a wink by the FDA that they like the medication, or do all drugs that cater to difficult to treat ailments get it?
I do like an article I read on the Yahoo board today. It said that the FDA is not very stringent when it comes to cancer medications (link below). As long as it provides moderate benefit and have not so severe side effects, it will get approval. This is great for DNDN.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/07/news/fortune500/cancer/index.htm
We are now awaiting BOA's rating for DNDN. Recent news seem like a perfect chance for BOA to come out with a buy or outperform. They waited for a reason, and all the recent news are good. I mean there can't be that much downside left on this stock as book value is about $2.75. Plus all the shorts need to cover sometime.
Good luck all.
Fast track is good, but was clearly anticipated when the BLA filing was announced by DNDN. Shows that management is telling the truth though!
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 02, 2005, 04:47:42 AM
You might want to consider selling on a rally back to resistance, then re-enter at a better price. Unless DNDN would get FDA approval, the chart doesn't look like its going anywhere for awhile.
Thus far, the "fast track approval rally" is having trouble at The Basonista Trendline.
Maybe I need to put a wammy on that trendline! ;)
Quote from: basonista on November 09, 2005, 08:48:02 AM
Maybe I need to put a wammy on that trendline! ;)
basonista,
I think you already did...that trendline has been giving us fits for a month! :D
Well, I think that DNDN is readying itself to make another break, possibly by day's end - the intraday showes a nice symmetrical triangle formation, with a pre-breakout ascending trendline providing support. Bollinger bands are narrowing and volume is decreasing, suggesting a move ius imminent. Unfortunately I can't say whether it will break to the upside, but my suspicion is that it will, given recent news, and the fact that the shorts can't push it forever... at least that's what I thought.
DNDN should showw a true reflection ofo its potential very soon, am sure of it...
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 09, 2005, 08:37:52 AM
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 02, 2005, 04:47:42 AM
You might want to consider selling on a rally back to resistance, then re-enter at a better price. Unless DNDN would get FDA approval, the chart doesn't look like its going anywhere for awhile.
Thus far, the "fast track approval rally" is having trouble at The Basonista Trendline.
The November 7 "fast track approval rally" high of 6.22 at The Basonista Trendline still stands, one month later. 6.22 was re-tested on November 22, 23 and 25, but DNDN failed to get through it.
It's interesting to observe the interplay between the fundamentals (bullish "fast track approval status") and the technicals ("bear rally back to former support at The Basonista Trendline," which acted as resistance).
Sometimes the fundamentals trump the technicals; at other times, it's the reverse. In this case, the bearish technicals trumped the bullish fundamentals.
"It isn't the news that's important, but
the market's reaction to the news that's important."
It's one of those "counter-intuitive" deals to have "sold into strength" on the bear rally back to The Basonista Trendline (resistance) to 6.22 on the "fast track approval" news, or even to have shorted that rally, but those often are good plays when "everyone" is buying a rally back to resistance (or buy, when "everyone" is selling into support).
Short-term, DNDN has double-topped at 6.22, and has taken out 5.60 support, putting a target of 4.98 IN PLAY. It's now testing horizontal support levels at 5.26-5.37.
Target: 4.98 is IN PLAY, as long as DNDN remains below 5.60.
Math:
Double Top at 6.22
Middle of the "M"-Top is 5.60.
6.22 - 5.60 = 0.62 points.
5.60 - 0.62 points = Target 4.98 IN PLAY
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 07, 2005, 03:36:56 AM
Target: 4.98 is IN PLAY, as long as DNDN remains below 5.60.
Math:
Double Top at 6.22
Middle of the "M"-Top is 5.60.
6.22 - 5.60 = 0.62 points.
5.60 - 0.62 points = Target 4.98 IN PLAY
Looks like the 4.98 will be MADE at the open:
7:12am 12/07/05
Dendreon prices 10M shares at $4.50 each (DNDN) By Thomas Middleton
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) said Wednesday it priced its public offering of 10 million common shares at at $4.50 each. The Seattle biotechnology company said it expects to complete the sale Monday. The company also granted underwriters a 30-day option to buy 1.5 million additional shares at the same price.
Nice call Melf Elf - there's your target done and dusted. My only question (as I don't short stocks) is where do you think an appropriate long entry point might now be?? Of course it depends on how low this breakdown goes (presumably it won't drop much below 4.50), but it is amazing to see DNDN fall to these levels considering the fundamentals and all of our discussions of it the last couple of months.
But then again, as you say - the market always knows better! Starting to think DNDN could be a very good long play at these levels. Will wait for a new base or a turn around for sure though.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on December 07, 2005, 12:54:10 PM
My only question (as I don't short stocks) is where do you think an appropriate long entry point might now be??
Scotsman,
We've just gapped down below five months of trading, so unless we get some kind of powerful reversal to the upside, it looks like DNDN is going to have tough going.
Quoteit is amazing to see DNDN fall to these levels considering the fundamentals and all of our discussions of it the last couple of months.
This morning's news was the type of thing that you can't factor in, but the chart was acting bearish. Bearish chart...bearish news...gap down.
Quote
But then again, as you say - the market always knows better! Starting to think DNDN could be a very good long play at these levels. Will wait for a new base or a turn around for sure though.
Right.
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=D&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 07, 2005, 03:36:56 AM
The November 7 "fast track approval rally" high of 6.22 at The Basonista Trendline still stands, one month later. 6.22 was re-tested on November 22, 23 and 25, but DNDN failed to get through it.
Still watching DNDN. Almost three months later, the November 7 "fast track approval rally" high of 6.22 stands, and we had another bearish pattern break to the downside last week.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 07, 2005, 09:21:22 AM
[7:12am 12/07/05
Dendreon prices 10M shares at $4.50 each (DNDN) By Thomas Middleton
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) said Wednesday it priced its public offering of 10 million common shares at at $4.50 each. The Seattle biotechnology company said it expects to complete the sale Monday. The company also granted underwriters a 30-day option to buy 1.5 million additional shares at the same price.
That
4.50 area now is IN PLAY from last week's Symmetrical Triangle pattern break. The May low was 4.31. This chart would have a nice look to it if we could go down there and put in the right leg of a BIG "W"-Bottom . The middle of the "W" would be the September 15 high of 7.37. EDIT: The rally from the May low to the mid-Septermber high was 4½ months, so if we put in a right leg here at the end of January/early February, that also would be 4½ months. Nice symmetry, if we get it.
DNDN continues to act bearish for now, though.
Hey ... I am still in the DNDN game - I sold out last year hoping to buy in lower. After the stock reacted surprisingly well to the secondary at $4.80 per share ... I bought in again and here the turd sinks again .... The market did not like the recent news about firing folks supposedly as to realign resources to focus on the commercialization of its prostate cancer vaccine Provenge. Also several high level executives have left. For the first time, I am having some real doubts on the fundamental side on this stock. But ... there is very recent insider buying of considerable amounts reported 19-Jan-06.
HERJAVEC, ROBERT (Senior Vice President 11,250 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $5.50 per share. $61,875
HAMM, RICHARD F, JR Secretary 16,875 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $5.50 per share. $92,812
GOLD, MITCHELL Chief Executive Officer 56,250 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $5.50 per share. $309,375
URDAL, DAVID Director 15,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $5.50 per share. $82,500
Bigdogs,
Thanks for your thoughts on the fundamentals and the Insider Trading info. Applaud.
Turns out that it was not really insider buying! >:(
On January 19, 2006, Dendreon Corporation ("Dendreon" or the "Company") awarded restricted stock grants that had been previously approved by its Board of Directors to certain of the Company's executive officers, to be evidenced by a restricted stock award agreement in the form attached as Exhibit 10.46 hereto. Dr. Mitchell H. Gold, Dendreon's President and Chief Executive Officer, received a restricted stock award of 56,250 shares. Dr. David Urdal, Dendreon's Senior Vice President and Chief Scientific Officer received a restricted stock award of 15,000 shares. Richard F. Hamm, Jr., Dendreon's Senior Vice President, Corporate Development, General Counsel and Secretary received a restricted stock award of 16,875 shares. Dr. Robert M. Hershberg, Dendreon's Senior Vice President and Chief Medical Officer received a restricted stock award of 11,250 shares. Each of the restricted stock awards is subject to the executive's continued service with the Company and will vest 25% on the first anniversary of the grant date and then quarterly thereafter at a rate of 6.25% over a period of 36 months.
Quote from: bigdogs99999 on January 24, 2006, 05:33:26 PM
Turns out that it was not really insider buying! >:(
On January 19, 2006, Dendreon Corporation ("Dendreon" or the "Company") awarded restricted stock grants that had been previously approved by its Board of Directors to certain of the Company's executive officers
bigdogs,
Okay, thanks for the clarification. I assume that you will be making this addition to your sign off about "men and counterfeit money:"
"Men awarded restricted stock grants; in any more cases, grant that men are restricted from awarding stock!"
>:D ;D >:D
Since we're revisiting DNDN, take a look at the "false buy signal" MACD gave at the high of the recent Symmetrical Triangle on December 23:
1. Notice the bullish divergence in MACD at the December low.
2. Notice the bullish crossover of the signal line in MACD at the exact top of the pattern!
3. Notice that after putting in three days of Bearish Hangmen on January 9, 10, and 11, MACD crossed above the zero line. Some technicians use that as a "buy signal." That signal was issued at the secondary top of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern.
4. MACD turned down from near zero (often a precursor of a downside continuation), and then MACD went back below its signal line, confirming the Symmetrical Triangle breakdown, three days prior.
Summary:
BE CAREFUL about "bullish divergences" and subsequent "buy signals" in indicators when stocks are in a bearish trend. The same cautionary note applies to "bearish divergences" and subsequent "sell signals" in stocks that are in bullish trends.
Evaluate the signal within the context of the price action/patterns in the chart.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 25, 2006, 01:14:00 AM
Quote from: bigdogs99999 on January 24, 2006, 05:33:26 PM
bigdogs,
Okay, thanks for the clarification. I assume that you will be making this addition to your sign off about "men and counterfeit money:"
"Men awarded restricted stock grants; in any more cases, grant that men are restricted from awarding stock!"
>:D ;D >:D
How about just - never trust any information received for free from Yahoo - and only trust some of the information in SCC filings? I guess that is too true to be funny though ;)
Up 12% premarket-
In at 2.07
CTIC Trade
News 1.84 0
XYOTAX(TM) has FDA Fast Track Designation for Women With Advanced Lung Cancer Who are Performance Status 2
February 08, 2006 07:01:09 (ET)
SEATTLE, Feb 08, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI) (CTIC, Trade) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) confirmed that XYOTAX, a novel biologically-enhanced version of one of the most used cancer drugs, Taxol(R), qualifies for fast track designation for the treatment of PS2 (poor performance status) women with first-line advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), which is currently being studied in the PIONEER clinical trial. The Company has initiated a number of clinical sites and is currently enrolling patients on the PIONEER trial, the first approval trial for lung cancer exclusively targeting women.
I seen that one taking a bounce this morning.
I wonder if we got something cooking?
AP
Cell Therapeutics Gets Xyotax Fast Track
Wednesday February 8, 7:42 am ET
Cell Therapeutics Gets Fast Track Designation From FDA for Xyotax Cancer Drug
SEATTLE (AP) -- Cell Therapeutics Inc. said Wednesday that the Food and Drug Administration has given its cancer drug Xyotax a fast track designation.
Shares of Cell Therapeutics rose 16 cents, or 8.7 percent, to $2 in premarket activity.
A fast track designation allows a company to submit data to the FDA as it becomes available and to receive agency feedback rather than having to wait to submit the data all at once.
The drug is currently being tested as a first-line treatment for women with advanced non-small cell lung cancer. Xyotax is a biologically enhanced version of paclitaxel, the active ingredient in Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.'s cancer drug Taxol, designed to cut down on the toxic effect to normal tissue.
Well, I posted to the new thread that was started, and wouldn't know it,
We already have this one!
I see this is taking a bounce this morning.
I wonder if we have something in the making for a run north?
I doubt I buy this one,but I'll watch it.I bought CNVX yesterday and it's up in pre mkt. Haven't had the time to research it much, only bought 1000 shares.
CancerVax (CNVX, Trade) was up sharply the second day in a row, leaping 15% to $2.85. The company is slated to be acquired by German drug developer Micromet in the second-half of 2006.
WASHINGTON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Cell Therapeutics Inc. (CTIC,Trade) filed with regulators on Friday to periodically sell up to $150 million in common and preferred stock, debt securities, and warrants.
The company said in a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it will use the proceeds from the offering for clinical development, commercialization activities, and general corporate purposes.
Under a shelf registration, a company may sell securities in one or more separate offerings with the size, price and terms to be determined at the time of sale.
CELL THERAPEUTICS (NasdaqNM:CTIC) Delayed quote data
Pre-Market (RT-ECN): 2.00 0.16 +(8.70%)
Strong Volume in the pre-market @....4,531,733
Today's Fast Track announcement of CTIC's drug Xyotax is a ground-breaker for directed-group research (in this case ... women) (also a first)
Lung cancer treatment works better in women. This could/will be cool!
Cheers,
SJ
ps. watch for trading opportunities $1.90 to $2.20 range. Long term accumulations above $3.50 is a good bet.
Cell Therapeutics cancer drug on FDA fast track
Wed Feb 8, 2006 7:19 AM ET
NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Cell Therapeutics Inc. (CTIC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday the Food and Drug Administration has confirmed that XYOTAX, its version of cancer drug Taxol, qualifies for fast-track designation for treating women with first-line advanced non-small cell lung cancer.
Fast-track designation means the FDA will facilitate and expedite the development and review of the application for the approval of a new drug if it is intended for the treatment of a serious or life-threatening condition and demonstrates the potential to address an unmet medical need.
I see there are already a couple threads running on CTIC, I didn't check to see if a thread had been started. OOps, thought we might have a runner and wanted to post quick.
I have never seen so many shares traded without some price movement, although I am still in I don't feel to hot about this trade so far. I expect the gap will fill below and hopefully bounce from there and in my dreams fill the gap above.
Oh well. :-[
I was in this one also pre hours. I cant believe that it only popped 10% on 20x volume. O'well we will have to see I like the pick though even without the news. I bought because I believe that the market cap has got to catch up with enterprise value at least without the news today. The target pps for now is $4.25 that will get the stock back in line where it should be even without today s news.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 24, 2006, 05:14:38 AM
DNDN continues to act bearish for now, though.
The 4.79 target MADE on Monday. On Friday, we came within eight cents of the 4.43 target still IN PLAY. DNDN is in full-blown bearish "knife catching" mode at this point. It's been in a waterfall decline since the last pattern break. Longs are capitulating, so we could be nearing some sort of bottom here.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 24, 2006, 05:14:38 AM
This chart would have a nice look to it if we could go down there and put in the right leg of a BIG "W"-Bottom . The middle of the "W" would be the September 15 high of 7.37. EDIT: The rally from the May low to the mid-Septermber high was 4½ months, so if we put in a right leg here at the end of January/early February, that also would be 4½ months. Nice symmetry, if we get it.
Still watching for that. We're in the latter end of that time-frame.
There's no support for the stock here. Horizontal support is nine months back, the left leg of the "possible" W-bottom, which is the print low of 4.31 back on May 2 of last year.
Everyone who bought DNDN since early May, 2005 now is holding a loser, so what we might see at the end of this waterfall decline is an exhaustion move to the downsde. "Nobody wants to be long this stock." A final capitulation selloff on heavy volume, with an upside reversal by the end of the session. A Bullish Doji Star, or a Bullish Hammer candlestick day. Something like that.
On December 7, for example, we had an open at 4.87, near the low of the day, then a rally all day with a close near the high of the day on very heavy volume. That produced a short-term rally (that failed), to 5.92.
just FYI ;) :
CTIC: Q4 Results (27c) vs (72c); Beats (39c) Est; No Guidance
Thursday , March 09, 2006 08:52 ET
QUARTER RESULTS
Cell Therapeutics Inc (CTIC) reported Q4 results ended December 2005. Q4 Revenues were $1.19M; -85.36% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +1,090.00%. Q4 EPS was (27c); +62.50% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +30.77%.
Q4 RESULTS Reported Year-Ago Y/Y Chg Estimate SURPRISE
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Revenues: $1.19M $8.13M -85.36% $0.10M +1,090.00%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
EPS: (27c) (72c) +62.50% (39c) +30.77%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
QUARTERLY GUIDANCE:
Company provided NO Revenue guidance for next quarter.
Company provided NO EPS guidance for next quarter.
YEAR-END RESULTS
Co. also reported Year-End results ended December 2005. FY Revenues were $16.09M; -45.62% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +10.58%. FY EPS was ($1.59); +65.95% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +18.46%.
FY RESULTS Reported Year-Ago Y/Y Chg Estimate SURPRISE
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Revenues: $16.09M $29.59M -45.62% $14.55M +10.58%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
EPS: ($1.59) ($4.67) +65.95% ($1.95) +18.46%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
&
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI) Reports 2005 Fourth Quarter and Year End Results
Thursday , March 09, 2006 07:01 ET
SEATTLE, March 9, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI) (Nasdaq: CTIC; MTAX) reported financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2005. Total revenues for the quarter were $1.2 million compared to $8.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2004. CTI reported a net loss for the quarter of $18.7 million ($0.27 per share) compared to a net loss of $43.5 million ($0.72 per share) for the same period in 2004. This included a $40.7 million gain in the quarter on the divestiture of TRISENOX(R) and a $23.6 million charge for the conversion of $38.4 million related to the Company's 4% and 5.75% convertible senior subordinated notes.
Total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2005, were $16.1 million compared to $29.6 million in 2004. For the year, CTI posted a net loss of $102.5 million ($1.59 per share), including a $71.2 million gain for the year on the divestiture of TRISENOX, compared to a net loss of $252.3 million ($4.67 per share) in 2004, which included an $87.4 million charge related to in-process research and development resulting from the acquisition of Novuspharma S.p.A..
Revenues for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2005 were lower as compared to the same periods in 2004 due to a reduction in product sales revenues as a result of the divestiture of TRISENOX to Cephalon in July 2005. The Company ended the year with cash, cash equivalents, securities available-for-sale and interest receivable of approximately $69 million. This amount excludes proceeds of $24.6 million held in escrow until April 30, 2006 to fund potential redemptions of 30% of the 6.75% convertible senior notes.
As of February 28, 2006, $56.1 million of the 6.75% convertible senior notes had converted into approximately 21.3 million shares. As a result of the conversions we paid make whole interest of $18.9 million.
"Our efforts to reduce expenses and raise additional capital over the last several months have placed us in the position this year to focus on advancing XYOTAX(TM) toward marketing applications in the United States and Europe and on reporting the interim analysis for the pixantrone phase III trial in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma," stated James A. Bianco, M.D., President and CEO of CTI.
2005 Highlights
-- Completed an $82 million convertible senior notes offering and
conversion of $38.4 million of outstanding 5.75% and 4% convertible
senior subordinated notes
-- Announced that pixantrone achieved the primary endpoint of a
randomized trial, significantly prolonging time to progression when
added to rituximab compared to rituximab alone, in indolent
non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
-- Reported gender specific survival benefit observed in STELLAR 3 and
4 trials among women on XYOTAX, linking survival benefit to estrogen
status and metabolism of polymer
-- Reported prospective analysis of phase II trial (PGT202)
demonstrating estrogen-linked survival benefit for women with
non-small cell lung cancer on XYOTAX
-- Initiated first gender specific approval trial (PIONEER trial) in
non-small cell lung cancer
-- Significantly reduced operating costs compared to 2004 and refocused
resources on near term XYOTAX and pixantrone milestones
-- Completed the divestiture of TRISENOX to Cephalon, and recorded a
$71.2 million gain for the year, with the potential to earn an
additional $100 million in milestones
-- Appointed Stonefield Josephson, Inc. as independent registered public
accounting firm
-- Appointed John Bauer, former Nintendo of America, Inc. Executive Vice
President of Finance, as new board member and Chair of the Company's
Audit Committee and appointed Phil Nudelman as Chairman of the Board
-- Announced initiation by the Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) of a
large phase III clinical trial examining the ability of XYOTAX to
maintain remission and prolong the survival of ovarian
cancer patients
-- Announced XYOTAX patent allowance in Japan, which will provide
exclusivity until 2018; announced that the European Patent Office
issued an allowance for a patent directed to XYOTAX, which when
issued, will have the same term as existing U.S. patents that provide
patent protection for XYOTAX until 2017
Here's another reason to be buying CTIC for long term huge profit gains
Press Release Source: Cell Therapeutics, Inc.
Pixantrone Combination Regimen Produces High Rates of Complete Remission for Patients With Aggressive NHL Who Fail CHOP Therapy
Wednesday March 22, 7:00 am ET
Preliminary Results of Phase II Trial Reported at Invest Northwest Conference
SEATTLE, March 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- At the 2006 Invest Northwest conference, Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI) (Nasdaq: CTIC - News) presented preliminary results of a phase I/II clinical trial of pixantrone in 64 patients with relapsed aggressive non-Hodgkin's lymphoma who had previously failed one or two prior chemotherapy regimens, including the CHOP regimen. The two-part study was designed to determine the maximum tolerated dose and evaluate the drug's effectiveness in a combination known as CPOP, in which pixantrone replaces doxorubicin in the standard CHOP regimen. All patients on the study had received prior doxorubicin therapy and as such were at risk for developing severe cardiac toxicity with additional anthracycline therapy.
ADVERTISEMENT
The CPOP regimen was highly effective, with complete response/unconfirmed complete response rates of 41 percent (14 of 34 patients) and 43 percent (13 of 30 patients) and overall response rates of 71 percent (24 of 34 patients) and 77 percent (23 of 30 patients) in the phase 1 and 2 component of the study, respectively. Predominant side effects were blood-related and included 60 to 75 percent grade 4 neutropenia and 23 percent febrile neutropenia. Grade 3 infections were observed at the 150 mg/m2 dose level (10 percent), but no grade 3 infections have been reported to date at the 180 mg/m2 dose level. There was one case of congestive heart failure reported, which was felt by the investigator to be related to the patient's underlying cardiac disease.
"These data suggest that in the relapsed setting, substituting pixantrone for doxorubicin can offer patients a high probability of achieving a complete remission not available with standard chemotherapy regimens and underscores the rationale for studying the CPOP regimen versus the CHOP regimen in first-line treatment of aggressive NHL," stated James A. Bianco, M.D., President and CEO of CTI. "Complete responses are the reference standard in treating non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, since it not only correlates with longer survival, but among patients who are at high risk for disease recurrence, a CR is required in order for them to undergo potentially curative bone marrow transplants."
About the CHOP Regimen
The CHOP chemotherapy regimen (a combination of cyclophosphamide, vincristine, prednisone and doxorubicin) is the standard-of-care treatment for newly diagnosed (first-line) aggressive NHL. Response rates following CHOP in first-line aggressive NHL can reach 70 percent and the regimen is potentially curative in up to 40 percent of patients. The prognosis is poor for patients who have a recurrence of the disease (relapsed patients). Despite its impressive anti-tumor activity, CHOP cannot be used to retreat the 60 to 65 percent of patients who will relapse following CHOP, due to the cumulative cardiotoxicity associated with one of its constituent agents, doxorubicin; a chemotherapy agent which belongs to the anthracycline family. The maximum lifetime recommended dose of doxorubicin ranges from 450 mg to 550 mg and this level is often reached during first-line treatment with CHOP.
About Pixantrone and the CPOP Regimen
Pixantrone is an investigational drug designed to potentially increase anti-tumor activity and decrease the potential for cardiac toxicity associated with the currently marketed anthracyclines. This trial examines the safety and potential efficacy of pixantrone when substituted for doxorubicin in the CHOP regimen among patients who have failed prior doxorubicin-containing CHOP therapy for aggressive NHL. The CPOP regimen includes pixantrone, cyclosphosphamide, vincristine, and prednisone. Patients were treated with escalating doses of pixantrone, starting at a dose of 80 mg up to 180 mg/m2.
About Cell Therapeutics, Inc.
Headquartered in Seattle, CTI is a biopharmaceutical company committed to developing an integrated portfolio of oncology products aimed at making cancer more treatable. For additional information, please visit www.cticseattle.com. This press release includes forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, the outcome of which could materially and/or adversely affect actual future results. Specifically, the risks and uncertainties that could affect the development of pixantrone include risks associated with preclinical and clinical developments in the biopharmaceutical industry in general and with pixantrone in particular including, without limitation, the potential failure of pixantrone to prove safe and effective for treatment of aggressive NHL, determinations by regulatory, patent and administrative governmental authorities, competitive factors, technological developments, costs of developing, producing and selling pixantrone, and the risk factors listed or described from time to time in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission including, without limitation, the Company's most recent filings on Forms 10-K, 8-K, and 10-Q. CTI is under no obligation to (and expressly disclaims any such obligation to) update or alter its forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Source: Cell Therapeutics, Inc.
HI,
Are you up to date with the newest cancer drugs for BREAST CANCER?
JAN.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 12, 2006, 05:11:39 AM
The 4.79 target MADE on Monday. On Friday, we came within eight cents of the 4.43 target still IN PLAY. DNDN is in full-blown bearish "knife catching" mode at this point. It's been in a waterfall decline since the last pattern break. Longs are capitulating, so we could be nearing some sort of bottom here.
Yesterday, DNDN made the UBS downside target of 4.00, issued on July 22, 2005. It closed at 3.91, making a 3-year low.
DNDN still is in full-blown bearish "knife catching" mode, and no sign of capitulation on volume, however yesterday's break below the down-sloping channel looks "Wolfe Wave-ish."
May 7 is six months since fast track status for Provenge, which produced a top in DNDN at 6.22. May 9 is earnings.
This is my "baby"... I follow it for over a year, averaging down (OK, doesn't sound attractive thus far) ... I am 25%, in average, in the red (sounds worse)... but the story is amazing:
1. Dendreon is a biotech company that develops a vaccine for prostate cancer which is based on the person's white blood cells. As some may know, today's only therapy for PC (prostate cancer) is Taxotere, which is a chemo (that many patients prefer not to take due to horrible side effects) - whereas Provenge, DNDN's vaccine, has NO side effects.
2. DNDN has COMPLETED and announced 2 phase-3 clinical trials. The results were mixed - they missed (slight miss) the primary end point (TTP = Time To Progression), but they have showed great increase in survival (34% were alive after 3 years vs. 11% from the placebo arm of the trial).
3. The market potential is 30-50,000 pts/year in the US. A typical novel cancer treatment costs around $45,000, so being a first line treatment can easily make Provenge a blockbuster (drug that sells over $1 billion/year)
4. Biotechs typically trade at 8-12 times revenues, so IF Provenge is approved, the mkt of DNDN will be in the range of $6-12 Billion. Moreover, DNDN has more promision vaccines, based on the same technology, in its pipeline... and there is the ROW market ...
5. The FDA has never rejected a cancer drug that showed increased survival. Will it reject DNDN because it failed in showing TTP, which is only surrogate to survival?
6. DNDN is about to file its BLA (biological equivalent of the NDA) to the FDA within the coming months. The FDA will likely to decide by the middle of next year, and DNDN, with over $140MM (I might be slightly wrong here) HAS ENOUGH CASH until the decision is made, so no dilution is expected in the very short term.
7. There is HEAVY HEAVY short activity in DNDN, most likely by SAC, orchestrated by manipulative, half-truth reports by analysts (UBS, in praticular), and biased (and WRONG) media (Cramer, twice). This manipulation has led the company to be traded at a market cap of ... $270MM ...
DNDN is not for a short term trade. It is also not for a margin account. This is a "buy and hold" stock. Assuming approval, DNDN can be traded at anywhere between $30-$100 - check what happened to IMCL (Martha Stewart, remember?) after Erbitux has been approved. 10-fold (and more) moves happen in biotech. The downside is around 50% - but who cares, give the downside a 50% probability with zero value, the upside is still overwhelming. Did I mention that DNDN is now at $3.90 or so...
There is a LOT to learn about DNDN. There is a risk to lose all the investment, but many believe that the approval chances are VERY high, so the risk/reward here is simply amazing and worth a small portion of one's portfolio (assuming he is not a trader).
Some interesting links can be found here: http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&board=1600905258&tid=dndn&sid=1600905258&action=m&mid=200000. DNDN's MB in Yahoo is cluttered with 100's of daily posts - and one can see the huge efforts that the shorts are putting to bash the company. OTOH, there are a bunch of doctors, statisticians and other well-educated posters that post great stuff about the science, market potential and analyze the market manipulation.
The shorts have created an unbelievable imbalance here, IMHO - and I encourage you guys to check it. I will love to hear other's comments, I hope to being able to handle most of your Q's.
;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=search2
any comments?
nice trend in the last couple of days, but fundamentally, it has a LONG LONG way to go
Quote from: stockpicker on May 18, 2006, 02:45:03 PM
This is my "baby"...
Quote from: stockpicker on May 26, 2006, 11:45:04 AM
any comments?
Stockpicker,
When anyone announces, "This is my baby," then asks for comments, I wonder if anyone is going to say, "Okay, I'll comment. You've got one of the UGLIEST babies I've ever seen!"
;D >:D
DNDN has been an ug-ug-ugly baby since last summer, which I'm sure you realize, but I understand that you're holding it for the long-term.
Quote
nice trend in the last couple of days, but fundamentally, it has a LONG LONG way to go
Yes, DNDN has made an interesting move over the past couple of weeks, so maybe it's ready to turn from an ugly duckling into a swan, huh?
:D ;D
I've liked the Provenge story since DNDN was a 3SOF pick, but I'm a technical analyst, and the chart has looked awful for more than six months. I've followed the technicals for a long time in the DNDN folder on the "Previous Picks" Board, and was about to update it when I saw your post. I'll post some comments in that folder next.
Applause for the information that you presented.
Quote
The shorts have created an unbelievable imbalance here, IMHO - and I encourage you guys to check it.
As of the May reporting, the short interest was down something like 8% for the month. 15 days to cover, so short-covering should be of some help on any rally.
Good luck with your position. I can see why you think that DNDN is a decent "buy and hold." Thanks again for your analysis.
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 02, 2006, 08:50:19 AM
DNDN still is in full-blown bearish "knife catching" mode, and no sign of capitulation on volume, however yesterday's break below the down-sloping channel looks "Wolfe Wave-ish."
That move down ended the next day, May 3, in a Wave 5 "fakeout" to the downside.
Quote
May 7 is six months since fast track status for Provenge, which produced a top in DNDN at 6.22. May 9 is earnings.
May 10 was a high at 4.15, prior to a move down to a new low at 3.68, which "could be" a DOUBLE fakeout low. We'll take a closer look at the "possible" Bulish Wolfe Wave in the next post.
What I liked best about Wolfe Waves when calven first presented them late in 2005 was the concept of "imbalance" at the Wave 5 fakeout. It's "overdone" either to the upside or downside, but we need confirmation of that.
Absent the two downside fakeouts on this chart, the pattern is a good old-fashioned Bullish Falling Wedge, or in Elliott Wave Theory parlance, an "Ending Diagonal." Again, we need confirmation of that.
1. After the fakeout at Wave 5, DNDN rallied to 4.15, just below the Kijun-Sen (solid red line), which was at 4.165.
There were lots of bullish divergences in technical indicators, such as RSI and MACD. What we wantED to see after that "thrust" to 4.15, was for DNDN to hold either at the bottom of the Wolfe Wave on any selloff, or at least to hold at the Wave 5 low.
It did neither.
"Bullish divergences without price confirmation are meaningless."
2. At the May 16 "double fakeout" low of 3.68, we had more bullish divergences in technical indicators, but again, we want to see PRICE do something bullish to confirm that.
a. On May 23, DNDN rallied to 4.05, slightly above the Kijun-Sen (solid red line), which was at 4.025. 4.05 (purple horizontal line) also was the high of May 15, prior to the drop to the "double fakeout" low of 3.68. From that second high of 4.05, we wanted to see the bottom of the Wolfe Wave hold on that selloff.
We wanted to see 4.05 get taken out after that.
b. On May 23, DNDN opened at the bottom of the Wolfe Wave, held, and rallied. BULLISH
c. On May 25, DNDN rallied to 4.05.
d. On May 26, DNDN opened at 4.05, sold off to where the Tenkan-Sen (solid green line) and Kijun-Sen (solid red line) were converging, then it rallied and took out 4.05. BULLISH
e. Also on May 26, DNDN took out 4.15, the high prior to "the double fakeout." BULLISH
3. Now we wanted to see DNDN get to the top of the Wolfe Wave, and take it out. It did that yesteday, May 30, but it also ran into tons of resistance, and sold off into the close on a Bearish-looking Inverted Hangman.
Resistance:
1. Top of the Wolfe Wave at 4.32
2. The Kumo (Cloud) - (Vertical Red lines) at 4.37-4.60
3. Down trendline (dotted red line) at 4.46
Summary:
The takeouts of 4.05 and 4.15 are the first short-term BULLISH things that DNDN has done in a long time. 4.05 and 4.15 both were resistance, and they now "should" act as support on any pullback.
DNDN then "should" start attacking the overhead resistance enumerated above.
DNDN: Short Interest DN 8.6% to 11.3M in May 2006
Wednesday, May 24, 2006 16:17 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN) DECREASED 8.6% to 11,275,415 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2006.
SYMBOL APRIL MAY CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
DNDN 12,340,614 11,275,415 -1,065,199 -8.63% 16
Based on DNDN's 20-day average daily share volume of 745,690, it would require approximately 16 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Melf Elf, any comment about "my baby" is highly appreciated. Moreover, I would take the negative ones very seriously and will be happy to try and challenge negative views - and obviously there are negative fundamental issues to be considered.
I read your other post on the "Previous Picks" board, and frankly speaking, I did not understand ANYTHING. Just from curiosity, where do you see DNDN in the near/mid/long term from now? I doubt if a penny more or a nickle less in the closing price (or intraday PPC) has ANY meaning, especially with this highly manipulated stock. All one had to do was to look at today's close, as the shorts held to the 4.51 (if i am not mistaken) dispate large buying blocks in the last 10 mins, as if moving the price up is so bad for the sellers (well, if this is not manipulation, what is price manipulation)
Quote from: stockpicker on June 01, 2006, 04:16:48 PM
I read your other post on the "Previous Picks" board, and frankly speaking, I did not understand ANYTHING.
Stockpicker,
Sorry about that. I probably didn't explain it very well. The gist was that the short-term picture for DNDN haD changed to BULLISH.
Quote
Just from curiosity, where do you see DNDN in the near/mid/long term from now?
My targets are derived from the patterns. From November 1, 2005 until May 26, 2006, DNDN was bearish in all time-frames: short/mid/long-term. All of the targets were to the downside, as you can see from this chart. There are black arrows where the patterns broke to the downside.
The print of 4.06 on May 26, 2006 was a bullish breakout of an Ascending Triangle. For the first time in seven months, that turned the short-term picture bullish. I'll explain that on the Previous Picks Board where I've posted charts since last year, if you're interested.
Good luck with DNDN, Stockpicker.
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 31, 2006, 05:12:12 AM
d. On May 26, DNDN opened at 4.05, sold off to where the Tenkan-Sen (solid green line) and Kijun-Sen (solid red line) were converging, then it rallied and took out 4.05. BULLISH
The takeout of 4.05 was an Ascending Triangle breakout that put Target: 4.42 IN PLAY. The target MADE exactly on May 31, 2006, which also was Bullish Falling Wedge/Bullish Wolfe Wave breakout, and the target was exceeded yesterday, June 1.
Math:
4.05 - The highs of May 15, May 23 and May 25 (flat top of the Ascending Triangle).
3.68 - The low of the pattern
4.05 - 3.68 = 0.37 points added back to 4.05 = Target: 4.42 IN PLAY
Quote
Resistance:
1. Top of the Wolfe Wave at 4.32
2. The Kumo (Cloud) - (Vertical Red lines) at 4.37-4.60
3. Down trendline (dotted red line) at 4.46
The Kumo (Cloud) has dropped in the past couple of days. The top of it is at 4.445. DNDN closed yesterday at 4.51, above all of that resistance. That's an impressive performance in an overall down market. DNDN is up 22.55% off its May 16 low.
Next resistance is right here, at 4.54, the highs of April 19 and 20. Then 4.90.
Dendreon reports positive Phase 2 study on Provenge
By Simon Kennedy
Last Update: 6:43 AM ET Jun 7, 2006
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Biotechnology company Dendreon Corp. (DNDN : dendreon corp com
DNDN said the Phase 2 study of its Provenge prostate cancer treatment in combination with Avastin showed the combined treatment significantly increased the prostate-specific antigen doubling time, which is a key predictor of a patient's prognosis. "These findings support our hypothesis that Provenge may have a significant impact on the progression of patients with recurrent disease," Dendreon said.
just fyi:
HOM: Sanders Morris Ups to Strong Buy from Buy; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, June 07, 2006 09:00 ET
Issuer: Home Solutions of America Inc (AMEX: HOM)
Analyst Firm: Sanders Morris Harris Group
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Strong Buy (from Buy)
Analyst Comments: The firm cites recent weakness in the shares which they believe was based on erroneous and self-serving information produced from an Internet blog.
>:D >:D >:D
DNDN under accumulation now thanks to latest news, in my opinion
biotech's in general have made a turn for the better ( in part, thanks to DNA - one of my fav's ).....believe the biotech index BTK signals renewed buyer interest in many bio's
good trading to all
willey
Quote from: willey on July 02, 2006, 10:11:17 AM
DNDN under accumulation now thanks to latest news, in my opinion
willey,
Yes, DNDN made a low at 3.68 on May 16, right when the NASDAQ was breaking down. It's been doing some nice base-building, and has two bullish patterns (see chart).
DNDN is up 31% from its May 16 low while the NASDAQ still is down from there. Good relative strength..
Quote from: Melf Elf on June 02, 2006, 03:23:01 AM
Next resistance is right here, at 4.54, the highs of April 19 and 20. Then 4.90.
DNDN made a high of 4.84 the next session, June 5, and is right there again at Friday's close of 4.84.
The 50DMA (dotted green) and 200DMAs (dotted red) are badly inverted, so this might need some more time for the 50 DMA to play a little catch-up, but the chart looks good. More backing and filling would strengthen the chart for a breakout.
I have bought some shares on Monday 8)
DNDN: JMP Sec Ups to Strong Buy from Mkt Outperform; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, July 05, 2006 07:51 ET
Issuer: Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN)
Analyst Firm: JMP Securities
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Strong Buy (from Mkt Outperform)
Analyst Comments: The firm is upgrading shares as they believe that the publication of the company's Phase III Provenge study has increased the chances of approval. Price target 12 $
Gap up opening, above the Ascending Triangle (pattern in green...see July 3 chart above). Target: 6.00 is IN PLAY.
Quote from: la-onda on July 05, 2006, 08:08:43 AM
DNDN: JMP Sec Ups to Strong Buy from Mkt Outperform
Price target 12 $[/b]
:)
hey melf
man has it been a long time since our DNDN torture!!!
Like the recent move and pm activity this am. back in at 5.00 ;D
Quote from: ScottishTrader on July 05, 2006, 10:04:08 AM
hey melf
man has it been a long time since our DNDN torture!!!
Like the recent move and pm activity this am. back in at 5.00 ;D
Hey, Scotsman!
Yeah, it's been a long,
long time. ;D >:D
Good luck, buddy! Hope you make lots of $$$ on it.
Elf, Interestingly we meet again - beware the false breakout of DNDN - always happens on news. If history holds true, the stock price will meander downwards and will be lower come end of July. Watching with interest!
Quote from: bigdogs99999 on July 05, 2006, 02:54:37 PM
Elf, Interestingly we meet again - beware the false breakout of DNDN - always happens on news. If history holds true, the stock price will meander downwards and will be lower come end of July. Watching with interest!
bigdogs,
Thanks for the warning. Fortunately, I had a real nice entry into DNDN coming off the Wolfe Wave #5 DOUBLE fakeout in May, so unless it crashes, I should do okay on this one.
Technically, DNDN is ahead of itself, with the 50 and 200DMA's so badly inverted. It hit its 200DMA at 5.07 today. Chart looks good so far, though. Volume on today's breakout is 5X average 100 day.
I've been posting in the DNDN folder on the Previous Picks Board, so see my posts there for further analysis, if you're interested.
DNDN
A genuine good play for the long term. $BTK index just recently broke out to new uptrends. DNDN should climb up right along with the bios leader DNA
good trading to all...
willey
updated analyst info:
Dendreon upgraded to "strong buy"
Thursday, July 06, 2006 2:46:16 AM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, July 6 (newratings.com) - Analyst Charles C Duncan of JMP Securities upgrades Dendreon Corporation (DNR.FSE) from "market outperform" to "strong buy." The target price is set to $12.
In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company's share price has declined 12% year to date. Dendreon is likely to file a new drug application (NDA) with the FDA for the Provenge marketing approval in the forthcoming three-to-six months, earlier than was expected, the analyst says. Moreover, supportive clinical data related to the study of early stage prostate cancer patients is also expected over the forthcoming three-to-six months, JMP Securities adds.
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1312192.html
The 50/200 DMAs were badly inverted when DNDN ran to 5.00 in early July. They were almost 1.00 apart.
DNDN corrected, held at support, then printed the 4.48 Falling Wedge breakout this morning. It's been rallying beyond that this afternoon, but I'd like to see better volume.
DNDN currently is BID 4.67...ASK 4.68.
well is this the break out 8) ??
Quote from: la-onda on August 22, 2006, 04:23:33 AM
well is this the break out 8) ??
Oliver,
Yesterday was a re-test of the Falling Wedge breakout. The top of the pattern came in at 4.458; the low was 4.46.
The top of the pattern comes in today, August 22, at 4.436. The 50DMA yesterday was 4.412. Those are near-term support. If they don't hold, it looks like we've got a false breakout.
Who knows with DNDN ???
We've seen so many fake-outs and failed rallies on this one, its hard to maintain any real break that this is "the one". As I see it, while we have had a break out of Melf's descending wedge, there is still a broken ascending trendline to get through, which comes in at 4.60, and a resistance band at 4.70-4.90. If it broke through 4.70, I would be more inclined to trust the validity of this one.
I think the only convincing evidence of a true breakout and trend reversal on DNDN would be a convincing move over $5.
Just my thoughts
Quote from: ScottishTrader on August 22, 2006, 09:38:35 AM
Who knows with DNDN ???
We've seen so many fake-outs and failed rallies on this one, its hard to maintain any real break that this is "the one".
Scotsman,
Boy, that's the truth! My feeling after the double downside fakeout below 4.00 was that if this chart is showing anything positive at all, I'd like to be long based on the prospects, but it sure has been tough to play.
Quote
I think the only convincing evidence of a true breakout and trend reversal on DNDN would be a convincing move over $5.
Agree.
For your information :
big movers today....+18% pm --- positive results in cancer studies :
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ctic
Drug developer Cell Therapeutics (CTIC - commentary - Cramer's Take) saw its shares jump more than 14% after the company announced positive results from a trial of its drug Xyotax in patients with cancer of the esophagus or stomach.
The early clinical trial involved 21 patients who were treated to determine the safety and maximum tolerated dose of the drug in combination with radiation. Of 12 patients evaluated, four saw their tumors disappear and seven saw their tumors shrink by more than 50%.
Shares were up 14.6% to $1.49 in premarket trading Wednesday.
"Xyotax is an important new radiation sensitizer in esophageal cancer," said Dr. Howard Safran of Brown University and head researcher of the study. "Preclinically, Xyotax is a much more potent radiation sensitizer than paclitaxel," a standard cancer care.
D.
news out:
Dendreon files partial FDA cancer vaccine petition
Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:00 AM ET
LOS ANGELES, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Dendreon Corp. <DNDN.O> said on Thursday that it has filed the safety and efficacy portions of a U.S. Food and Drug Administration application for an experimental prostate cancer drug and expects to submit the chemistry and manufacturing segment by the end of the year.
"We will apply for a priority review, which means a 6-month clock for the FDA. We could get approval in mid-2007," said Chief Executive Mitchell Gold.
Seattle-based Dendreon is seeking clearance to market Provenge, which is designed to work by stimulating a patient's immune system against cancer cells, as a treatment for men with late-stage prostate cancer.
If approved, the drug would be the first therapeutic cancer vaccine.
In one Phase III trial of 127 men with advanced prostate cancer, those taking the drug showed a median survival benefit of 4.5 months compared to the group receiving a placebo.
The drug's side effects, mainly fever and chills, were shown to be minimal, Gold said.
The company is conducting a third pivotal-stage trial of Provenge in men with advanced prostate cancer as well as a pivotal-stage trial in men with early-stage cancer.
Gold said Dendreon plans to market the drug in the United States and to partner the drug for sales in other markets.
&
Dendreon Submits Clinical and Non-Clinical Sections of Rolling BLA to FDA for PROVENGE to Treat Advanced Prostate Cancer Patients
Thursday August 24, 5:30 am ET
SEATTLE, Aug. 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN - News) today announced that the Company has submitted the clinical and non-clinical sections of the rolling submission of a Biologics License Application (BLA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T) for the treatment of asymptomatic patients with metastatic, androgen-independent (also known as hormone-refractory) prostate cancer. The Company plans to submit the chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) section later this year, which will complete the submission of the BLA to the FDA for approval to market PROVENGE.
The clinical section of the BLA contains the evidence supporting the safety and efficacy of PROVENGE for the treatment of men with advanced prostate cancer. In particular, this section of the BLA contains the clinical trial data supporting the conclusion that PROVENGE confers an advantage in overall survival, without significant toxicity, to men with asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer.
"Prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in American men and remains a serious unmet medical need with few effective treatment options," said Mitchell H. Gold, M.D., president and chief executive officer of Dendreon. "Based upon the results of our clinical trials, we believe that PROVENGE has a highly favorable benefit-to-risk profile, and we are focused on working closely with the FDA so that PROVENGE can be made available to help prostate cancer patients."
The FDA has granted Fast Track review status to PROVENGE enabling Dendreon to submit its BLA on a rolling basis so the FDA can review sections before receiving the complete submission. If approved, PROVENGE would become the first commercially available active immunotherapy, sometimes referred to as therapeutic cancer vaccine, to treat advanced hormone-refractory prostate cancer.
Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer in the United States and the third most common cancer worldwide. More than one million men in the United States have prostate cancer, with an estimated 232,000 new cases of prostate cancer diagnosed each year. More than 30,000 men die each year of the disease.
should be good for DNDN today 8)
Quote from: la-onda on August 24, 2006, 05:56:43 AM
should be good for DNDN today 8)
Oliver,
I hope so because yesterday was a bust, as far as the Falling Wedge breakout is concerned.
>:(
Both the 34/55 RSIs and the 55/89 RSIs have come into synchronicity here, so a bounce today would be good, if we get it. I'll show you the 34/55 RSIs next post.
Thanks for the news item. Applause.
The 34/55 RSIs are at Synchronicity. The 55/89RSI chart, next sequentially, looks similar to this one/ They're also at Synchronicity.
The 34/55 RSIs are at Synchronicity. The 55/89RSI chart, next sequentially, looks similar to this one/ They're also at Synchronicity.
Quote from: Melf Elf on August 24, 2006, 09:09:36 AM
The 34/55 RSIs are at Synchronicity. The 55/89RSI chart, next sequentially, looks similar to this one. They're also at Synchronicity.
Last Thursday, we got the bounce higher out of Synchronicity in both of these RSIs. The 89/144 RSIs have been bullish since late June. Yesterday, the fastest 13/21 RSI also bounced higher out of Bullish Synchronicity. So, as far as all of those sequential RSIs are concerned, they are "in gear" for a rally.
All that we need now is for PRICE to move up, confirming the bullish technicals. :D
MACD also is looking good. I'll post that chart next.
It was "gut check" time last Wednesday, when DNDN when back below the Bullish Falling Wedge breakout, accompanied by MACD turning down from zero. I was thinking then that we were headed back to the 4.00, and that I'd have to settle for a break even, after being long for three months.
>:(
Instead, DNDN bounced back out of the Bullish Falling Wedge, and MACD looks much better. We aren't out of the woods just yet, but....
Whew! (We need a sweating face on the toolbar). :D
I'll post the price chart next.
Last Thursday, DNDN rallied back above the Bullish Falling Wedge.
Friday, it came back down and re-tested the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge, re-validated it by holding within two cents above it.
Monday, a rally.
The technicals look good. We now need to knock out 4.68-4.78 near-term resistance:
4.683 - The purple down trendline
4.735 - The declining 200 DMA
4.78 - The July 26 high
Quote from: Melf Elf on August 29, 2006, 03:12:19 AM
The technicals look good. We now need to knock out 4.68-4.78 near-term resistance:
4.683 - The purple down trendline
4.735 - The declining 200 DMA
4.78 - The July 26 high
As The Scotsman said, we want to see DNDN get above $5 and stay there, but it's good to see the stock capitalizing on the good technicals, and closing above some of the resistance.
Yesterday was the first close above the 200DMA since January 11, 2006, which we might view as at least a moral victory of sorts. :D
The technicals continue to look good. MACD is moving higher, above zero, and all of the sequential Fibonacci measures of relative strength are in gear for a rally (see 34/55 RSIs in the next post) . Now we need for the stock to turn the corner, and move higher.
Breakout in the 34/55 RSIs.
EDIT: Sorry, I posted the wrong chart. It's been corrected.
Dendreon "buy"
Friday, August 25, 2006 3:36:49 AM ET
McAdams Wright Ragen
NEW YORK, August 25 (newratings.com)
Analyst Paul C Latta of McAdams Wright Ragen maintains his "buy" rating on Dendreon Corporation (DNR.FSE). The 12-month target price is set to $6.
In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company has indicated that it has submitted the clinical and non-clinical portions of BLA for Provenge. Dendreon expects the full BLA filing to be completed during late this year, following the submission of the chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) filing, the analyst adds.
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1353866.html
take a look http://www.cticseattle.com/investors_news.htm
25 days to cover short positions ;D
Shares Short: 12,873,103
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=dndn&submit=Enter
Quote from: la-onda on September 20, 2006, 05:22:08 AM
25 days to cover short positions ;D
Shares Short: 12,873,103
Thanks, Oliver.
DNDN has been hanging onto the bottom of the channel, and now is at the top of the Kumo (Cloud). If we could get above 5.00 now, especially above the 5.17 high, that would give the shorts reason to cover. ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 20, 2006, 06:47:08 AM
DNDN has been hanging onto the bottom of the channel, and now is at the top of the Kumo (Cloud).
Oliver,
DNDN closed below the channel on Thursday, and I missed getting stopped out on Friday by a single penny. I was tempted to sell at the close and be done with it, since I've been holding for 4 months, but DNDN finished on a possible Bullish Hammer off the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), so I'll go ahead and play it out, with the stop at 4.39.
Darned annoying, though. :P :(
Quote
If we could get above 5.00 now, especially above the 5.17 high, that would give the shorts reason to cover. ;)
Should we pay some analysts to upgrade it, to get those shorts to cover? ;D >:D
Hi MelfElf,
I will wait for any positiv price action next week!
Hope the conferences will help us!
Hope that our patience will be rewarded
cheers
Oliver
SEP 26
Cambridge Healthtech Institute, Baculovirus Technology, September 26
The Production of Antigen PA2024 with BEVS for Provenge (sipuleucel-T), a Novel Immunotherapy against Prostate Cancer
Gilles Lefebvre, Ph.D., Senior Process Development Engineer, Dendreon Corporation
http://www.healthtech.com/2006/BCV/day2.asp
SEP 27
The UBS 2006 Life Sciences Conference at the Grand Hyatt in New York also lists DNDN (Gold) presenting at 1:30 on Wednesday September 27. http://www.ibb.ubs.com/Conferences/pdfs/Preliminary%20Life%20Science%20Agenda%209-16-06.pdf
SEP 28-30
New England Section of the American Urology Association, September 28-30, 2006
Improved Survival With Sipuleucel-T (Apc8015) in Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer
Karim J. Hamawy, MD1, John Libertino, MD,Mark Frohlich, MD2.
http://www.neaua.org/abstracts/2006/P3.cgi
Oliver,
I need some good news at those conferences, so that they quit flirting with my 4.39 stop. ;D
Yesterday's low: 4.42. >:( >:D
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 26, 2006, 06:11:10 AM
Oliver,
I need some good news at those conferences, so that they quit flirting with my 4.39 stop. ;D
Stopped it out at 4.39. Gain: 8.1%
not much price action after the 3 presentations hold on conferences.... ???
more patience from my side will hopefully rewarded
Quote from: la-onda on September 30, 2006, 03:59:06 AM
not much price action after the 3 presentations hold on conferences.... ???
Oliver,
Players might be tired of "Waiting for Godot." At least, that's how I felt. :D
Quote
more patience from my side will hopefully rewarded
I hope so, too, Oliver.
Technically, the break of the channel (red) was a pain in the neck, but maybe the Falling Wedge (blue) will break out to the upside.
Good luck!
fyi:
Mitchell Gold - Dendreon President and CEO
Insert forward looking statements and risk factor disclaimer
Let me tell you a little bit about the company. The company is headquartered in Seattle, Washington. It was founded in 1992 from 2 scientists out of Stanford University. We recently built out a commercial manufacturing facility in Hanover, New Jersey. And that's 158,000 square foot manufacturing plant that will serve as the commercial site for the launch of our lead product candidate Provenge. We currently have 220 employees that are mostly focused today on the commercialization today of our lead product candidate Provenge.
So what does Dendreon represent from an investment opportunity today?
I think it represents a very compelling investment opportunity.
We have the potential to be the first cancer immunotherapy to the market. We show a very strong survival benefit in phase 3 clinical studies. There is a significant amount of physician interest in bringing better tolerated and less toxic forms of therapies to patients with late stage prostate cancer.
We currently own 100% of the worldwide rights to our lead product candidate Provenge and we're studying Provenge not only in late stage prostate cancer but also in early stage prostate cancer as well. We believe our androgen delivery cassette technology has been validated with the survival data that we've seen in our lead study with Provenge and that we can apply that to other antigen in vivo types and toward other cancer indications.
So what does active immunotherapy represent from a cancer treatment perspective?
Well these are much, much different than chemotherapy type products. They are designed to be highly specific, potentially affecting only cancer cells. They are very well tolerated when compared to traditional chemotherapies, and they can be used both prior to and in combination with other agents. So for Provenge, we see Provenge being used as front line therapy in patients with metastatic androgen independent prostate cancer, but it can also be used in combination with other products either in early stages of disease or chemotherapy can be added along with the regiment later on for patients with late stage prostate cancer.
The patient completes a full course of therapy with Provenge over a 1 month period. After they are done with that treatment protocol they can go on and live their normal lives so they're not having to go in every three weeks and get an infusion of a chemotherapy based regiment. They get their treatment regiment in 1 month and they go on and they live the life that they want to live. That is an important feature for patients. And of course the potential for the immune response to be durable is very important for these patients so we see that really bear itself out in the survival data from our primary phase 3 study 9901.
So why are we so excited about Provenge?
This is a slideshow highlighting the data from our first phase 3 study 9901. That study was a large double blind randomized placebo controlled study. It showed a 31% delay in time to disease progression which was a primary endpoint of that study, but more importantly it showed a 41% overall reduction in the risk of death, a median survival benefit of 4 1/2 months, and that survival benefit was statistically persuasive, with a p value of .01, and clinically meaningful. It's much more significant than what we are seeing with the current standard of care in Taxotere. Most importantly Provenge was very well tolerated so that therapeutic index of this product was very different than what you see with traditional chemotherapeutic agents.
This is a new class of therapies and we believe that one of the key features, one of the key reasons that we've had the success that we've had is because the proprietary technology that resides in our antigen delivery cassette. The antigen delivery cassette is something that is unique to Dendreon and there's two key principles behind it. First that we select a well validated and well characterized target, in the case of Provenge that target is represented here by the orange structure is prostatic acid phosphatase and we fuse that to a dendritic cell binding protein gmcfs and that fusion protein allows us to get much more efficient antigen uptake by the antigen presenting cells then if we just used the naked antigen by itself. 100% of our patients generated immune response against the cassette itself. That's one feature.
The second is that we manufacture this as a recombinant protein so we don't source our antigen from a patient's own tumor tissue and we don't source our antigens from algenetic cell lines. We make this through standard manufacturing biologic techniques and as a result it's highly scalable, we've scaled it up to 2000 litres, which is our commercial launch scale. But much more importantly from a regulatory perspective, it's extremely well characterized. So we know exactly what this protein looks like on ?paresis.
Now how does this work with the immune system?
I am going to show you a video here that highlights how this program works.
see slide show
http://www.dendreon.com/img/DendreonImmunotherapyAnimation-ref.mov
We're all very familiar with the advent of monoclonal antibodies and what they meant to the treatment of different types of cancers. Monoclonal antibodies are a passive form of immunotherapy. You give them and you have to repeatedly administer those products. This new class of products known as active cellular immunotherapies is very different. Once you administer these products, the body creates a memory t cell response and they have the ability to stick around and be much more durable. Very similar to the immunizations that we've received against pathogens such as measles, mumps and rubella. So we're leading the way for this this first in class type of product, to bring this type of product to patients with late stage prostate cancer.
So what's the need for a product like Provenge?
If you looked at the spectrum of patients with prostate cancer today what's amazing to me is that while there are a million patients that have a diagnosis of prostate cancer, about a half a million of those men are currently actively being treated for the disease. It's usually they've been initially diagnosed, or they've been treated and they've recurred. The primary forms of treatment include surgery, and radiation therapy and sometimes cryotherapy. About 40% of those men will fail primary therapy, and they go on what's known as androgen deprivation therapy LHRH ?therapy. That's not a pleasant experience for most men. All men will eventually become resistant to androgen deprivation therapy, they become what is know as androgen independent or hormone refractory. And for those men there are few appealing treatment options available to them today. The label that we are currently persuing for Provenge, will position it for frontline therapy for men with asymptomatic metastatic androgen independent prostate cancer. Taxotere is currently approved for the treatment of asymptomatic men and symptomatic men and in the asymptomatic setting only about 5% of patients are currently electing to go on Taxotere. Once they are symptomatic it is closer to 20% of the patients are currently electing to go on Taxotere. So there is a hugh gap here and a need for new treatment options that are better tolerated for patients with asymptomatic androgen independent prostate cancer, and that's what we're persuing in our BLA filing with the FDA this year.
If you look at the market size for this patient setting there is about 132,000 men with hormone refractory prostate cancer, of which about 96,000 are metastatic. It's a fairly large patient segment for us to be persuing on our primary label. Now this is the data for the Taxotere label. Again Taxotere is the only form of currently approved therapy available for these patients. The median survival benefit is 2.4 months, this is from the Tax 324 study that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine. That survival benefit typically is associated with significant ?morbidities or significant toxicities, the biggest one is being the male changes and the peripheral neuropathy, but certainly also the neutrapenic changes are debilitating for these patients. So it shouldn't really be a surprise, and this was a study that was conducted by the largest prostate cancer advocacy group, when they polled patients to see how they were satisfied with the current treatment regiments, only about half of those patients said that they were currently considering chemotherapy as an option. When you actually look at the usage patterns it's consistent with that you're seeing about a 14% overall penetration for Taxotere in patients with hormone refractory prostate cancer. So there is clearly a need for new treatment options.
In summary androgen independent Prostate Cancer is a deadly disease. On the average these patients die in about 19 months. There's been a modest survival advantage but an important one seen with docytaxl regiments that provides about a 2.4 month benefit in median survival. The majority of patients are currently electing not to go on Taxatere based regiments mostly due to the side effects profile and the impact on quality of life which is highlighted by the S?2 study and there is clearly a need for better tolerated, new treatment options. We think we have the opportunity to provide that with our lead product candidate Provenge.
The data from our principle study, the 9901 study, was published in the July issue of the Journal of Clinical Oncology . This was the first ever randomized double blind placebo controlled trial for cancer immunotherapy. It enrolled 127 men with metastatic androgen independent prostate cancer at 19 centers across the US. The primary endpoint of this study was median time to abjective? disease progression and the study protocol required that we follow all patients for 3 years after randomization for the survival endpoint which is obviously the gold standard endpoint, not only in oncology but particulary in hormone refractory prostate cancer.
These are the curves that were published in the JCO article and here you see Provenge in orange, and placebo in green, and the curves separate very nicely from the beginning. There is a 4 1/2 month median survival benefit that achieved a statistically persuasive result, p value .01 and the hazard ratio of 1.7 suggests that there is a 41% overall reduction in the risk to death for men that got drug compared to placebo. Personally I like hazard ratios more than medians. Hazard ratios give you a better overall estimate of what the drug effect is as opposed to a point estimate such as medians.
What is really compelling is the durability of this type of product. So at the end of the study 34% of patients on drug were alive compared to 11% of patients in the control arm. So a three fold improvement in 3 year survival. Now this benefit is seen with very minimal toxicities. The most common side effect that are associated with Provenge are what you would expect from a cancer immunotherapy. There are fevers and chills, They are usually of low grade and of short duration. They last for about 1 or 2 days and then they go away. So in contrast to chemotherapy this is an extremely well tolerated agent.
So the 9901 study which is highlighted in blue is a primary study that we are using to support the biologics license application for Provenge. And again in that study we showed a 21% of 4.5 month improvement in median survival and a three fold improvement in 36 month survival. We tested the robustness of this survival benefit. This hazard ratio of 1.7, a p value of .01 with a multivariate cox regression model to make sure that this survival benefit wasn't due to imbalances in other factors, other major demographic factors, and once we plugged that into the cox regression we can see that the p value stays strong, see that value of .002 and the hazard ratio went up slightly. This data set 9901, is supported by data from a second phase 3 study, 9902A, as well as data from an integrated analysis of these two studies.
So from a regulatory perspective this is a product that has been residing within the CBER branch of the FDA and in particular the Office of Celluar Tissue and Gene Therapies, In September of 2005 we held a formal pre BLA meeting with the FDA and they agreed in that meeting that the survival benefit observed in the 9901 study, supported by data from 9902A and the absence of any significant toxicity, that that data set would serve as a primary basis of our biologics license application. And it is important to note that this strategy is consistent with the current regulations for single study approval. The data is clinically meaningful, it's statistically persuasive, and it is supported by other data from other studies.
So if you look at the time line for the Provenge program going forward, we held our pre BLA meeting with the FDA about a year ago, in September of last year, and we announced our decision at the point to submit the biologics license application at that time. The data was published in JCO this summer. We've completed the conformance runs now for the recombinant protein with our contract manufacturer Diosynth. That was a very important event for the organiztion. We've also completed the buildout of our New Jersey manufacturning facility which will be the facitlity that will host the pre approval inspection with the FDA. That facility is still in the process of being validated. Once that's done we plan to complete the CMC section which is the final section of the BLA to the FDA which will start the PADUFA clock. We will also request priority review at that time. We anticipate that we will go in front of an advisory committee early in 2007, probably some time in the first quarter, with the potential approval by the middle of next year.
So this is really a near term opportunity for the company, near term opportunity for the patients and a near term opportunity for investors. Its been a long road to hoe, We've been working on this for over 10 years. But we are pretty excited about the packages that we're putting together and what it means for patients with late stage prostate cancer.
We have another study called the Impact study or 9902B. It's similar in design to the 9901 and the 9902A studies but it potentially allows us to expand the label into minimally symptomatic disease. So if you look at what we have ongoing with Provenge to date, the green area are the studies that we're using as a primary basis of the BLA. We do have an interest into moving into earlier stage prostate cancer. We've completed two phase 2 studies, both 9905 and P-16 which showed an improvement in PSA doubling time in those two studies. One was a model therapy study, the other was Provenge in combination with Avastin. We expect to get the results from P-11 study sometime before the end of this year, which is a phase 3 study in early stage prostate cancer. The primary endpoint there is a biochemical endpoint. Classically those endpoints have not been used, have not been acceptible for label expansion, but we do think that this will help educate the physician community on the potential utility of Provenge in early stage prostate cancer. The primary purpose of that study really is to use the patients of that study to supplement the overall safety database which the FDA has agreed that that safety database is adequate in size. And then the 9902B study, the Impact study that is currently enrolling, is actually enrolling very well right now. We expect to complete enrollment in that study next year. A little bit on that study, It's a large study, it's 500 ,men, similar in design to 9901 and 9902A, 2 to 1 randomization. It's enrolling at 70 sites. The primary endpoint of this study is survival. It's designed really off of the integrated analysis of 9901 and 9902A, so it's appropriately powered. It's being conducted under a special protocal assessment that we've agreed on with the FDA and the primary statistical tool to analyze survival will be the cox regression analysis and again patients from that study will be used to supplement our current application for the BLA.
The manufacturing process itself, from a commercial setting, a physician will write a prescription for Provenge, the patient will get a standard blood collection, a procedure known as a leukoparesis. That will be sent off to our commercial manufacturing facility in Hanover, New Jersey where it is combined with the antigen delivery cassette of the recombinant protein and over about a 30 to 40 hour period they are cultured together and that is sent back to the physician's office for infusion which occurs over 30 to 60 minutes. It's a standard IV infusion , just like any infusion based medicine.
About half the physicians in our clinical trials are urologists and half the physicians are oncologists. They are very comfortable administering infusion based products. This process is repeated 3 times over a 1 month period, then the patients are done.
We have as I mentioned earlier, completed construction on our state of the art, first in class, manufacturing facility in Hanover New Jersey. It is a 158,000 square foot facility, and we will be able to expand that facility as necessary.to really meet the commercial manufacturing needs that we anticipate for Provenge. Also we have completed the conformance lots of the recombinant protein of the antigen delivery cassette with our contract manufacturer Diosynth. That will all be included in the CMC section of our BLA.
From a marketing perspective I don't think that this is much different than other oncology programs. There's really 2 physician segments that we are going after. It's both Urologists and medical Oncologists. They are easily targeted through a sales force of about 98 reps and if you include the support personnel along with the sales reps it's about 125 total people in general which is easily managed by an organization like Dendreon. So we plan to commercialize this product ourselves in the US through this easily managed sales force and are seeking a commercialization partner outside the US. There is a hugh market for this patient segment with metastatic hormone refractory prostate cancer. We think the data that we have in hand and the favorable benefit to risk profile supports Provenge as front line therapy in patients with metastatic androgen independent prostate cancer. We will have some data later on in the fourth quarter that suggest that patients can go on chemotherapy and what that looks like with Provenge. It's an easily targeted customer base and we expect that pricing will very much be similar to other biologics that are currently available for patients with late stage cancer.
We are building a pipeline beyond Provenge, both in early stage prostate cancer with Provenge itself but also into other antigen targets. We really want to leverage the antigen delivery cassette technology so we have a program that targets her2neu, called Neuvenge, and we will be studying that in ovarian, colorectal, we are particularly interested in bladder cancer indication, cea for colon, lung and breast cancer, ca9 primarily for renal cell cancer and the trp-p8 program.
We currently have a very unencumbered, a very clean balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with 106 million in cash and no debt.
So this has been a very productive year for Dendreon. We've submitted the clinical and non clinical sections of the BLA to the FDA in August, we've published our results of our principle phase 3 study 9901 in the Journal of Clinical Oncology and that was extremely well received in the physician community, we've completed construction of our manufacturing facility in New Jersey, and as I said we've also completed our conformance lots with our contract manufacturer Diosynth. We published the results of the NCI study looking at Provenge in combination with Avastin in men with earlier stage Prostate cancer.
Looking forward I think it will continue to be an eventful fourth quarter for the organiztion. We'll be completing submission of the Provenge BLA to the FDA prior to the end of this year. We are on track to do that. That's going very well. We'll report top line results from the P-11 phase 3 clinical trial of Provenge in early stage androgen dependent prostate cancer and we'll have numerous scientific presentations in the fourth quarter that really highlight the robustness of the survival benefits that we've seen with Provenge.
So as I said earlier I think that Dendreon provides a unique investment opportunity today. We have the potential to be the first active immunotherapy to market for patients with late stage prostate cancer. We're showing a strong survival benefit with a favorable safety profile. The physicians are clearly interested in a better tolerated treatment option for their patients. We own 100% of the worldwide rights to this program and we can move it both into earlier and later stages of disease. And once we get Provenge across the goal line, we will be able to invest much more substantially in our other assets and expand the pipeline as a whole. I thank you for our time today. I believe our breakout is in the booth room downstairs.
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&pt=msg&mid=520814
Nice transcript La-Onda ;)
Keep an eye on this one, it really sounds like DNDN could be big in 2007. Just thought I would throw up some charts. Potential breakout of melf's falling wedge is imminent. However, the real breakout play will occur when DNDN breaks $5 again. It is pretty clear from the medium and long term charts that this will be significant. I also like the support of the new ascending trendline, which comes in around 4.33 right now, giving a bit over a 4% risk to the trade.
DNDN really has a huge amount of potential, and it vexes me as to why it has been such a difficult stock to trade. I am waiting for it to show me that it is a winner. ;)
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 10, 2006, 05:42:18 PM
Potential breakout of melf's falling wedge is imminent.
Scotsman,
On October 5, the top of the wedge came in at 4.559. The close was 4.56, smack on it.
Yesterday, the top of the wedge came in at 4.506. The close was 4.52, so that's a technical breakout on a closing basis. If the recent highs of 4.57 and 4.61 get taken out, it "should" run.
The 34/55 RSIs have been struggling, but they've shaped up in the past couple of days.
The 55/89 RSIs have looked fine since mid-August.
The MACD has looked ratty for awhile, but it's at least showing signs that it wants to move higher.
I'll show you those 3 charts next.
Quote
iit vexes me as to why it has been such a difficult stock to trade. I am waiting for it to show me that it is a winner. ;)
No kidding! :D
I stopped it out at 4.39 when it looked like it was going to rollover to the downside. Nope! :'( >:D
I'm quite certain that if I pay up for it and buy this technical breakout, the danged thing will tank on me, so maybe if I leave it alone,
you guys can get rich on it! :D ;D
Sorry, I put up the wrong chart in the last post. It's been corrected.
We can see that the 34/55RSIs have had problems recently. The 34 fell below its shadow (55) twice, and it failed at the 55 EMA twice.
On the more recent failure, though, the 34/55s came into Bullish Synchronicity, and then bounced higher. The high in the stock was 4.57, so that's the "buy pivot." A print of 4.58, which we haven't gotten, is a buy signal.
Sometimes, a Fibonacci pairing, like this 34/55, will become "asynchronous," so to speak (out of sync), in order for the next pairing in the sequence (55/89) to come into synchronicity.
We'll look at the 55/89 RSIs next.
The 55/89 RSIs have been fine since late June, with only a minor "Oops!" which immediately was corrected.
In the recent time-frame, while the 34/55RSIs were acting quite sloppy, the 55/89RSIs were coming into Bullish Synchronicity, and they bounced right when DNDN made a low at the bottom of the Bullish Falling Wedge.
That's very nice, technically.
Naturally, we need price to capitalize on that, and breakout.
There's a bullish divergence in the MACD histogram, which is encouraging, but we don't want to see it roll over and die here, from below the signal line. :P
On watch DNDN ;)
Quote from: Terliso on October 13, 2006, 01:04:04 AM
On watch DNDN ;)
Alister,
I'm watching alright, and what I saw was a slide
all the way back to 1.35, on a day when the general market was rallying like gangbusters.
What the heck is this stock doing? ??? >:( >:D
At least it managed a close at UNCH, and a close back above the Bullish Falling Wedge, but I'm being generous calling it a BULLISH Falling Wedge, when it hasn't proved that at all. :D
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 11, 2006, 04:49:21 AM
A print of 4.58, which we haven't gotten, is a buy signal.
We still don't have the print of
4.58. :(
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 11, 2006, 04:30:37 AM
If the recent highs of 4.57 and 4.61 get taken out, it "should" run.
A print of
4.58 is a technical buy signal basis the 34/55RSIs, but it wouldn't be as convincing as a print of
4.62, above the September 28 high. The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is
4.6175, adding significance to the print of
4.62. That would give us a "higher high," and also would put the stock above the Kumo (Cloud) resitance.
Quote
The 34/55 RSIs have been struggling, but they've shaped up in the past couple of days.
That's still okay, despite more sloppiness in the stock. The 34 still is above its shadow, the 55.
Quote
The MACD has looked ratty for awhile, but it's at least showing signs that it wants to move higher.
MACD now is kissing the signal line, from just a hair below it. It needs to go through it, and up through zero. "Feet, don't fail me now!" ;D
Quote
iit vexes me as to why it has been such a difficult stock to trade. I am waiting for it to show me that it is a winner. ;)
It continues to vex, Scotsman! :D
;D SHOW US 4.62!! ;D
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 13, 2006, 02:49:10 AM
A print of 4.58 is a technical buy signal basis the 34/55RSIs, but it wouldn't be as convincing as a print of 4.62, above the September 28 high. The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is 4.6175, adding significance to the print of 4.62. That would give us a "higher high," and also would put the stock above the Kumo (Cloud) resitance.
Thar she blows!
4.58 got printed at 1:20 PM...4.62 followed at 1:33PM.
;D RALLY, YOU DAWG! ;D
Quote
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 13, 2006, 02:44:29 PM
Thar she blows!
4.58 got printed at 1:20 PM...4.62 followed at 1:33PM.
DNDN doesn't score any points for volume, only 150,000 shares today, but it's taken out Friday's 4.67 high, and is inching higher.
I'd like to see more buying interest.
nice chart, you are in again MelfElf? 8)
Quote from: la-onda on October 16, 2006, 05:40:43 PM
nice chart,
Oliver,
Yes, it is!
Quote
you are in again MelfElf? 8)
Yes, I got back in at 4.58 on the technical buy signal basis the 34/55RSIs, which also was a mini W-Bottom breakout off the 4.30 and 4.35 lows.
We've now got THREE Bullish patterns, nested within a FOURTH Bullish pattern, the large Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black). The technical breakout of them for yesterday was
4.805.
The close was
4.82!! :o
The volume was only 692,000 shares, a little better than average, which is disappointing when a stock has a technical breakout like that (multiple nested Bullish patterns), but it's a technical breakout nonetheless.
Technically, the RSI Fibonacci pairings look great. MACD went up through its signal line, then up through zero on Friday...
This is the type of chart that could expode to the upside, even without any news, like GIGM did on September 7, strictly on a technically based rally.
This morning would be a great time for the company to put out one of those "fluff" bits of news, or for some analyst to say something nice about the stock. The momo boys would jump all over yesterday's technical breakout >:D
By the way, even using the less conservative Left Leg (4.30) of the mini W-Bottom breakout, thatpattern target of 4.84 already MADE yesterday afternoon, which is good to see. The high was 4.86:
Math:
4.57 - 4.30 = 0.27 + 4.57 pivot = 4.84 IN PLAY
;D QUADRUPLE BREAKOUT...RALLY, YOU DAWG >:D
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 16, 2006, 11:24:40 AM
I'd like to see more buying interest.
This has to be a joke..a QUADRUPLE breakout, and NO buying interest!?? ??? ;D >:D
The Scotsman is right. This is the most vexing stock I've ever encountered. >:(
The 50DMA still is slightly below the 200DMA, and those "should be" support, but who knows with this incredibly annoying stock! :D
The Bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) is at the same level, offering additional support.
Support:
4.552 - 200 DMA
4.525 - 50 DMA
4.520 - Bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)
I "paid up" at the 4.58 RSI Buy Signal to get back in, so a test of that support would put me in the red, even if only temporarily. And, no guarantee that it will hold, as it "should."
It also "should have" moved higher out of the QUADRUPLE breakout. >:(
I'm not going to sit for that. If we print 4.68, a penny below yesterday's low, I'll take another gain (2%), and see what develops as far as a test of 4.52. - 4.55, or a move higher.
>:D STOP THE TORMENT...RALLY, YOU DEVIL >:D
I jumped in this one. DNDN printed 4.97 today. The time to pop is near I believe. ;D Just needs some volume >:D
I jumped in also today ;)
Sold CHINA for 19% profit & bought DNDN ;)
Thaa-at's better!
Volume improved, to 1½ times average 100 day volume, but that still isn't good enough for a QUADRUPLE breakout. Players "should be" jumping all over this, and they aren't. DNDN gets marked down for that.
4.95 was the September 5 high. That got taken out on an intraday basis, but the close was only
4.92. That could be a "teaser," but it gets marked down again for not CLOSING above 4.95.
All Fibonacci pairings of RSI are Bullish. MACD is above its signal line, and above zero. Bullish.
Overall, scores for Technical Merit....
(Judges #5 and #6 are The Scotsman and Melf Elf, who find this stock vexing)
>:D 7.5...8.0...8.0...7.5...6.5...6.0.... >:D
personally i think it looks quite nice... i'll give it an 8 ;D
Yep...it would have been nice to close above 4.95. :-\ and it may drop some in the very...very near term. but I still believe this one is ready to pop shortly. It has a very nice ascending trendline today at 4.40, but I think the 50dma should at least provide good support in this situation. I've seen this situation too often not jump on board. Thanks Melf Elf and ScottishTrader for you analysis. I believe volume will kick in. I may be eating crow...but we will see. :D
Whoops Chart...
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 18, 2006, 09:26:46 PM
personally i think it looks quite nice... i'll give it an 8 ;D
Scotsman,
I had you giving it only a 6.5 since DNDN has vexed us so much. I should have known that you were both brilliant
and generous! :D
Quote from: kslifka on October 18, 2006, 09:36:49 PM
Yep...it would have been nice to close above 4.95. :-\ and it may drop some in the very...very near term. but I still believe this one is ready to pop shortly.
kslifka,
Yeah, a pullback to the top of the Symmetrical Triangle for a breakout re-test might in store in the very near-term, as you say, but I wouldn't want to see any more than that. Then it gets "sloppy" again. :P
The technicals look very good here. DNDN needs to quit horsing around, and RALLY! :D
Alister,
Nice going on CHINA. Good luck on this one! Let's make some $$$ ;D
Hopefully this will bring in the traders :)
There she goes 5.22 as I write ;D
Sold 25% of my DNDN position at 5.18. Gain: 13.1%
Target #1: 5.17 (The Top of the Symmetrical Triangle) MADE
Quote from: kslifka on October 19, 2006, 01:38:22 PM
There she goes 5.22 as I write ;D
kslifka,
That restores my faith in QUADRUPLE breakouts! We at least got Target #1. :D
Good luck to all of us! ;)
5.28 was the February 21 high, so we've printed an 8-month high here. It's nice to see that and this might be about it for the day, which would be fine. Now we need to hold most of the gains on the day for a nice white candle.
Volume finally is coming in. We're already over 1 million shares, near 2X average 100 day.
We might have to raise our marks for Technical Merit after today's session. ;D
DNDN going to six bucks... ;) yeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaa... ;D ;D
Nice Close. ;D
News on the Way??
I went back to the top of Page 15 (November 1, 2005...almost one year ago) and gaive a "folder applause" to everyone who posted in this folder since then:
Oliver (laonda), kslifka, The Scotsman, Alister (Terliso), Willey, Bigdogs, logocovet, Basonista, and Michael.
What a great read, going back one year, if anyone has time.
A quick walk down Memory Lane...
The Basonista Trendline...The UBS call in July, 2005, for $4...the November 7, 2006 Fast Track Approval Status for Provenge that resulted in a DOUBLE failure at the The Basonista Trendline, at 6.22, then the tank
below the UBS $4.00 target... The Wave 5 "fakeout" low that came in on May 15, 2006, at 3.68, vindicating the UBS call...
Mercy, this has been a long-g-g time, recovering from all of that!
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 17, 2006, 03:16:22 AM
This is the type of chart that could expode to the upside, even without any news, like GIGM did on September 7, strictly on a technically based rally.
I didn't see any news, but it's nice to see all of our efforts
finally pay off, even though I'm still a bit vexed that I held this sucker for 4 months, sold it for an 8% gain, then "paid up" for it, at 4.58. Oh, well...
I got paid well for holding it for 4
days.
Technically, we closed above the February high of
5.28. The close was
5.29.
Volume, that I've been whining about,
finally came in: 3 times average 100 day average.
Target #1: 5.17 MADE.
We really can't ask for much more than that. Very-y nice day. A pullback from here would be fine, but not too much!
Scores for Technical Merit....
Please Wait...Judge #6, Melf Elf, still is vexed about having to "pay up" for the stock...
Okay, the scores are in....
>:D 10...10...10...10...10...6.1818... >:D
All I can say Melf, is you deserve the most applauds on this one (and yes I do remember our DNDN discussions a year ago...) and some well deserved profits from this little devil >:D
Unfortunately, these last 4 days I have been discussing it with you from the sidelines (don't ask me why, just had my money elsewhere and didn't pull the trigger???) but it sure does look good, doesn't it?
Who knows, maybe I will take a little ride (note to self: I've been trying to get my money out of the market for the last 2 weeks to change brokers, which is a good thing, but it has to sit in my trading account for 3 days before it clears, and I keep seeing stocks that I want to jump in on and get my money all ties up again!! grrrr!!! Must take a break!!!)
This looks to be the news that caused the breakout (beyond strict technicals....)
Dendreon Announces New Data Analyses Presented at Prostate Cancer Foundation Scientific Retreat
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061020/sff012.html?.v=79
+ 8.5 % pre market ;D >:D ;D
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 20, 2006, 07:11:48 AM
This looks to be the news that caused the breakout (beyond strict technicals....)
Scotsman,
Thanks for that news. Applause.
Quote from: la-onda on October 20, 2006, 08:34:47 AM
+ 8.5 % pre market ;D >:D ;D
DNDN is indicated to Gap Up, currently BID 5.72...ASK 5.74, near our 5.88 IN PLAY ;)
have you read the download file?
1. The data got much better after censoring non-PC-related deaths. The p-value improves to p=.002 instead of p=.01. This p-value means that the chance that Provenge is a fluke is 1 in 500! And this is straight log-rank, no Cox regression involved.
2. Halabi nomograms show that there were no imbalances in prognostic factors. This uses historical data so it's complementary to the use of Cox regression as previously done with the 9901 data itself.
3. Chart 18 absolutely destroys the early chemo argument for treated patients. That chart shows the times when patients started chemotherapy. The Provenge curve is clearly above the placebo curve. That reinforces the notion that people naturally avoid chemo as long as they feel that their health remains good. People treated with Provenge certainly behaved that way.
4. Chart 26 shows what the label will look like for Provenge. It will be frontline for AIPC before any chemos. A point was made that this is not to make chemo obsolete. That likely means that Dr. Petrylak's presentation next month will further show that chemos after Provenge substantially increase the probability of survival.
http://investor.dendreon.com/downloads/22568dndn.pdf
sounds very promising and good IMO
and DON`T FORGET THE SHORTS COVERING:
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=dndn&submit=Enter
20 days >:D >:D >:D >:D
Woo hoo!!!
Alright, I'm back with you guys, just managed to get filled at 5.27-5.28!!!!
No idea what went on there but I like it!!
Go DNDN ;D ;D ;D
Anyone have any idea what is going on???
The first 10 minutes trading have been totally insane!!!
The pps is all over the place and 750k traded already!!
May be because of options expiration today :-\
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 20, 2006, 09:41:08 AM
Anyone have any idea what is going on???
The first 10 minutes trading have been totally insane!!!
The pps is all over the place and 750k traded already!!
I really need to wake up earlier and sell these small news related gappers. :-\
I know, my earlier woo hoo is swiftly turning into an oh dear...
DNDN you vexing devil you >:D >:D >:D
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 20, 2006, 11:02:17 AM
IDNDN you vexing devil you >:D >:D >:D
Sure is, Scotsman! Yeesh! >:D
Sold remaining 75% of my position at 5.07 for a 10.7% gain. Gain on the trade: 11.3%.
It's a better gain than I had holding for 4 months, but it's ver-ry disappointing.
We got to 5.77, eleven cents shy of our target, so that could be it on the upside for awhile. Volume already is about 5 time average 100 day, and it's on a "Gap To Crap" reversal. If we close below yesterday's open of 4.90, it's not just a reversal, it's a Key Reversal, which generally, is pretty bearish.
Good luck, guys!
Man does someone want to keep this stock around $5. ???
Quote from: kslifka on October 20, 2006, 10:17:09 AM
May be because of options expiration today :-\Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 20, 2006, 09:41:08 AM
Anyone have any idea what is going on???
The first 10 minutes trading have been totally insane!!!
The pps is all over the place and 750k traded already!!
I don't think that over 3 MILLION traded shares has much to do with slightly over 1,000 open contracts. Option expy day was only an excuse for the Hedgies to pull down the price to the $5 level. They will likely move it a bit lower at the beginning of the week, but the FUNDAMENTAL data of DNDN keeps getting better and better, so FUNDAMENTAL-based demand will eventually break the shorts.
Some (fundamental) points to consider:
1. 50,000 patients a year in the US (AIPC - late stage PCa)
2. Cost of treatment - not less than $45,000/patient (equivalent to other advanced cancer drugs)
3. Competition: only chemotherapy - over 50% of the patients do not take it due to its horrible side effects
Now for some speculations:
1. As an urologist/oncologist - will you recommend Provenge or chemo to your patient know the:
a. side effects of chemotheraphy
b. the side effects of Provenge (1-2 days of fever and chills)
c. Survival data -- I assume 65% penetration within 2 years
d. Typical biotechs are traded at 8-15x peak revenues. Due to the higher manufacturing cost of Provenge - I will take the low end.
e. peak revenues in 2 years - I will apply a 35% for this
So ... if we sum it all in case of approval:
Revenue: $45,000 x 50,000 x 65% = $1.25 BILLION
Market cap: $1.25B * 8 * 0.65 = $6 BILLION
Today's market cap: $400 MILLION
So ... Wall-Street believes that there are 6-7% approval chances - I believe that they are WAY WAY wrong.
As some of you know, I basically ignore T/A and follow fundamentals. As such, DNDN has to be traded around $20 PRIOR to the FDA decision and could be as high as $80 POST approval.
It seems more and more that DNDN is the real thing!
all about DNDN:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=10507&pt=msg&mid=725586
This is THE Real Deal!
up again ;)
I'm still holding this stock :D
The weaks got shaked out last week ;)
---- I suspect DNDN will close above the red candle this week (weekly chart)
Quote from: Terliso on October 31, 2006, 12:01:25 PM
I'm still holding this stock :D
The weaks got shaked out last week ;)
---- I suspect DNDN will close above the red candle this week (weekly chart)
Just a little bit above 6.00 is still in play from Symmetrical Triangle Breakout ;)
I know that you guys are mainly T/A professionals, but the story behind DNDN is (probably) for real. This is an INVESTMENT, and if approved (mid 2007), this is a $50 stock.
I am NOT trying to hype ... believe me ... really ... ;-)
This is a great FUNDAMENTAL analysis of DNDN - it is WORTH reading!
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=10625&pt=msg&mid=730972
Quote from: Terliso on October 31, 2006, 12:01:25 PM
I'm still holding this stock :D
The weaks got shaked out last week ;)
Alister,
Interesting comment.
I'm one of the "weaks" who sold the big volume reversal candle. ;D
I had plenty of opportunities to get back in at a lower price, on the successful re-test of the top of the big Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black).
Although the top of the pattern got violated intraday, October 24 and 25 were long-tailed Bullish Hammers that closed above the top of the pattern. October 26, although a black candle, sitll was a close above the top of the pattern. That looked pretty good.
I sold for the second time in a month at 5.07 on October 20, on the big volume reversal. I've got a gain of 19.3% on the two trades, so I've got some "house money" to play with. I sure thought about re-entering when the top of the Symmetrical Triangle continued to hold last week, on a closing basis.
But, I decided to pass, due to the proximity of the big volume reversal candle. It was on 5 times 100 day average volume. That's a good bit of nearby resistance. DNDN made some progress into that area on Tuesday and yesterday, but succumbed to selling pressure and finished out yesterday on a Dark-Cloud cover (Opened higher...finished well into the prior day's white candle).
Technically, the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black) target of 5.88 still is IN PLAY as long as DNDN is trading above the pattern, so that's fine, but the rally off the October 25 low of 4.67 is looking like a Bear Flag rally into that October 20 big volume reversal resistance.
We'll see how it plays out from here. I'm watching from the sidelines.
Good luck!
just fyi:
Dendreon initiated with "neutral"
Thursday, November 02, 2006 8:47:57 AM ET
Banc of America
NEW YORK, November 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Banc of America Securities initiate coverage of Dendreon (DNR.FSE) with a "neutral" rating. The target price is set to $6.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 02, 2006, 04:16:39 AM
DNDN made some progress into that area on Tuesday and yesterday, but succumbed to selling pressure and finished out yesterday on a Dark-Cloud Cover (Opened higher...finished well into the prior day's white candle).
DNDN followed through to the downside yesterday, off the Dark-Cloud Cover.
Quote
Technically, the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black) target of 5.88 still is IN PLAY as long as DNDN is trading above the pattern, so that's fine
5.88 still is IN PLAY, but...
Quote
the rally off the October 25 low of 4.67 is looking like a Bear Flag rally into that October 20 big volume reversal resistance.
The Bear Flag got broken to the downside, confirming in the short-term that the low end of the Big Volume Reversal Candlle was resistance.
Quote
But, I decided to pass, due to the proximity of the big volume reversal candle. It was on 5 times 100 day average volume. That's a good bit of nearby resistance.
Some buyers of that Reversal candle used the Bear Flag rally to 5.14 as an opportunity to sell, so at the moment, DNDN looks to be working off that "overhang of resistance."
The low of that candle was 4.92. Yesterday's close was back below it, at 4.84.
Nearby Resistance:
4.92 On a rally today, the bottom of the Bear Flag comes in at
4.92667 , right at the
4.92 low of the Big Volume Reversal Candle.
Anything above
4.92 , DNDN is back to working off the "overhang of resistance" in the Big Volume Reversal Candle.
Nearby Support:
4.735 - The Top of the July - October Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black)
4.67 - DOUBLE support: It's the low of the Bear Flag; it's also the 50DMA
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 03, 2006, 06:07:40 AM
Nearby Resistance: 4.92
On a rally today, the bottom of the Bear Flag comes in at 4.92667 , right at the 4.92 low of the Big Volume Reversal Candle.
Anything above 4.92 , DNDN is back to working off the "overhang of resistance" in the Big Volume Reversal Candle.
The open was
4.90. The close was
4.93. That's a respectable effort on the part of the Bulls, after the downside break of the Bear Flag. They managed to close the day out "at the bottom rung" of DOUBLE resistance, and just a fraction above the bottom of the Bear Flag. That at least shows some heart. Bulls weren't willing to give it up to the downside.
But, the fact remains that DNDN closed at DOUBLE resistance.
There still are a lot of Bulls trapped in the Big Volume Reversal candle, from 4.92 on up to 5.77, and on any further rally from here, many of them will be sellers, making upside progress difficult.
In gerneral:
"The closer reistance is in time, the more difficult it is to overcome."
The Big Volume Reversal Candle was only two weeks ago, so we've got quite a few willing and anxious sellers.
Given:
1. The Big Volume Reversal Candle
2. The break of the Bear Flag
3. Friday's close at DOUBLE resistance
The path of least resistance, short-term, is down for:
1. A second re-test of the top of the Big Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black)
2. A Double-Bottom, at or near 4.67
3. A tag of the 50DMA
4. An opportunity for the longs trapped in the Big Volume Reversal candle to sell to "stronger hands," which also would create distance in time since the Reversal.
That's how I would like to see this play out, but we don't always get what we would like. :D >:D
The Bulls did step up to the plate at Friday's close, so they very well could start banging away at the Big Volume Reversal candle next week.
Next, I'll show you an example in which that's
exactly what happened.
GIGM had a nasty Big Volume Reversal at August earnings, down 22.6% from that day's high.
After the three day selloff, GIGM began to recover, but it looked to me like a Bear Flag rally (pattern in green) into the Big Volume Reversal Candle, very similar to what we've got in DNDN.
I wasn't at all interested in the long side of GIGM, at that point, but Frederick and Aussie sure caught a big winner early!
Surprisingly (at least to me), GIGM broke out of the "Bear Flag" to the UPSIDE in late August!
Bear Flags/Bearish Channels, after a downside reversal like GIGM had, "usually" resolve to the downside. Great example of how there is no ALWAYS, as far as patterns and indicators, etc.
This chart also is a great example of FOLLOW the market...listen to the message of the market. We don't always get it, but often the message is clear, like it was in this example.
Many of you will remember my post in the GIGM folder that, it not only broke out to the upside, the stock had THREE successive, successful re-tests of the breakout, at 9.43...9.46...and, 9.49 (it doesn't look like it, because this Candlevolume chart throws it off a bit).
As a result, September 7 was the MONSTER white candle explosion to the upside on "no news," but technically, this chart was packing some punch with the channel breakout, and with the THREE successful re-tests of the top of the channel. The volume even was greater than the Reversal candle, at August earnings!
Unusal for it to have resolved bullishly after the Bearish Volume Reversal Candle, but we can see, technically, how it did it.
Bottom line: I'm not counting the Bulls out in DNDN.
I'm just not joining them right here at DOUBLE resistance. Still on the sidelines, but cheering for the Bulls. ;)
>:D GO DNDN, YOU LITTLE DEVIL! >:D
DNDN
I've been trying hard to look for a stock that just close above 50sma weekly scale in 1 to 3 weeks in a row (or bounce off from 50sma) .... I think DNDN will give me some nice profits here ;) :D ;D .... IMHO
TGB is a good example of "bounce off from 50sma" ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 04, 2006, 06:22:49 AM
4. An opportunity for the longs trapped in the Big Volume Reversal candle to sell to "stronger hands," which also would create distance in time since the Reversal.
Not sure if you have following the trading on the day that DNDN hit $5.72 - it was an early morning spike (5 mins or so, based on REAL POSITIVE news) which was hammered by the shorts. The shorts capped DNDN ALL DAY LONG at the $5.00-$5.50 range, so very few traders actually bought DNDN above $5.05.
OTOH, it seems that in the last 2 days there is some accumulation going on
DNDN is the REAL DEAL (though risky!) if we talk fundamentals - if interested, you guys may want to check the following DNDN - FACT SHEET link:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=11625&pt=msg&mid=773201
This is TRULY an amazing story
Again, I know nothing about T/A, but I do know that the story i
Quote
DNDN will make an announcement of their third quarter results tomorrow
.....I'm not going to ride through earnings, I'm out for now for 7% profit ;)
Good trading!!
There are no "earnings" to report in DNDN - there will be no surprises regarding the burn rate.
The company will announce if they are still on schedule to submit the final third of the BLA to the FDA (no news is good news here). Any other news (P-11 trial data, int'l partnership) could be HUGE HUGE. Long term investors will listen closely to the Q&A for other hints.
This is a big story and could be worth much more than a quick trade - though it is always nice to make a buck or two .... ;-)
Quote from: stockpicker on November 07, 2006, 11:19:50 AM
Not sure if you have following the trading on the day that DNDN hit $5.72 - it was an early morning spike (5 mins or so, based on REAL POSITIVE news) which was hammered by the shorts. The shorts capped DNDN ALL DAY LONG at the $5.00-$5.50 range, so very few traders actually bought DNDN above $5.05.
stockpicker,
A stock can't be shorted unless there are buyers, because of the uptick rule on shorting. If a stock is tanking...tanking...tanking...there can't be any shorting.
But, you make a good point. Including the prior day, there only are about 8 candles on the hourly chart in which trading was over $5.00, so that overhead supply could have been worked off on the selloff to, and successful re-test of, the top of the big Symmetical Triangle.
That would have been a nice re-entry, as we can see now, but I didn't take it. Not only because of the Big Reversal Candle, but I held this stock for four months, mired in all of the "pattern morphing" of the Big Symmetrical Triangle. I decided to content myself with the 19.3% gain in my two trades.
Good luck! I hope that this goes higher for those of you long. We've all spent a lot of time studying this one, technically and fundamentally, and you all deserve a nice gain on it.
Nice trade, Alister! ;)
fyi:
Dendreon 3Q Loss Widens
Wednesday November 8, 8:01 am ET
Dendreon Posts Wider 3rd-Quarter Loss
SEATTLE (AP) -- Cancer-treatment developer Dendreon Corp. posted a wider third-quarter loss Wednesday as an increase in operating expenses offset a rise in sales.
The company's quarterly loss totaled $20.7 million, or 29 cents per share, compared with $19.7 million, or 33 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue jumped 45 percent to $84,000 form $58,000 last year.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast a loss of 29 cents per share on sales of $100,000.
Total operating expenses rose to $21.7 million from $21 million a year ago.
Financials look basically in line with expectations. Not much action in the PM either. I think a lot could ride on the conference call, and their comments about BLA developement. Still I like fact that we have had a breakout and sucessful re-test of that symmetrical traingle, which puts a target of about 6.25 in play. Hopefully DNDN should see some solid action today.
You guys have missed the MORE important PR regarding the top-line of the phase-3 P-11 study for EARLY STAGE prostate cancer:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061108/sfw066.html?.v=81
Highlights:
1. No safety issues (as expected) - but VERY important
2. Clear (stat-sig) immunology and biochemical responses
3. Too soon to determine any CLINICAL response - this data will be
available in the coming year+
As for the market, well, we had a nice run-up in the last couple of
days and at the beginning of today's trading. Short term PPS is
always problematic in DNDN due to manipulation, but all I care is
the long run. Note that the early-stage prostate cancer is 4x bigger
than late stage (the current BLA application), and that Bank of
America's recent research study estimates Provenge revenues (for
late stage) at $2 billion ... so go figure why DNDN is traded at
$400MM mkt cap.
Disclosure: I have added a few more shares today after seeing the
results.
... and remember, I am for the LONG RUN
congrats stockpicker >:D
what would be now again a good entry price from TA side?
cheers
Oliver
Ok watching again i'm setting an order at pullback ;)
If it helps, the hourly chart gives a suggestion of the kind of support levels I would expect if DNDN pulls back tomorrow. I think it is unlikely to go below around 5.10 in any case. Upside is significant, with near term resistance at 5.70 and 5.90 levels.
I think this is what really got juices flowing on DNDN today - there were very positive comments on the conference call, and the analysts seemed quite impressed and upbeat.
Dendreon Announces Preliminary Results From PROTECT (P-11) Study
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061108/sfw066.html?.v=81
After hearing the CC, I am more convinced than ever that Provenge will get approval for late stage prostate cancer, and this additional indication for early-stage prostate cancer presents a significantly larger opportunity.
The momentum may finally be turning for DNDN
Stockpicker,
I am in with you on this one (though my entry is not nearly as safe as I suppose yours is ???) And while yesterday produced a fairly ugly looking red candle, as you said, with DNDN you really have to either trade it VERRRYY fast or give it some room and hold for the medium term.
I had a read of the CC transcript yesterday, and a couple things came to mind that I thought I should highlight. While the PROTECT preliminary results were encourageing, as they said, the FDA will not grant label expansion on biochemical indicators alone, so at this stage this information will only contribute to the safety profile going into their current BLA. As you mentioned, DNDN will have to wait until they can assess primary endpoints of time to progression and survival, before they can use this data to support a label expansion. That could take anything from 9-18 months. However, it appears from a medical standpoint that the data is very encouraging, but we will just have to wait and see. Also, this would not be applicabe for very early stage (i.e. when men still have a functioning, although malignant prostate), it would still probably be administered after prostate removal and alongside subsequent therapiies. (i'm prety sure that is what they were suggesting).
I also really liked the fact that they were very clear that the remainder of the BLA would be submitted this quarter, and they implied that this shoud occur really quite soon (possibly in the next few weeks?) When this happens, DNDN should get another nice pop. They clearly have enough cash to get through this period until the FDA decision, and also have manufacturing capacity ready (about 25%, but they said they have the space and it should be relatively easy to ramp this capacity up once they get approval).
Technically, DNDN looks like it is moving into a (somewhat violent) breakout trend and I am going to use the ascending trendline in blue (at least initially) as a guide. I would also like to see the 20ema (green line) hold on a closing basis, which should track this move. Support looks to come in at 5.10 and 4.95, so I am going to raise my stop to 4.89. Next resistance looks to be around 5.46-47, and then 5.70. I really want to see how this one develops, DNDN has enormous potential, and the next couple of months look to be crucial. Hopefull, finally, DNDN can begin to realise its true potential.
More STELLAR Clinical News from DNDN:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061110/sff019.html?.v=72
There is no question that earlier Provenge is better than later Provenge but later Provenge is better than no Provenge.
Also, the difference between Crossovers+Taxotere and Pure Placebo+Taxotere is the final deconstruction of the Aschoff's argument that cross-overs were sicker because they got chemo late. The cross-overs had a 5.5 month median survival advantage over the Pure Placebo.
Provenge+Taxotere 34.5
All Placebo+Taxotere 25.4
Crossovers+Taxotere 25.7
Pure Placebo+Taxotere 20.2
Dr. Daniel Petrylak just said everyone with advancing stages of prostate cancer should take Provenge as first line therapy followed by Taxotere as second line therapy. If you follow this regimen you will see a survival advantage of almost 14 months vs true placebo with all arms well balanced against a Halabi nomogram.
Dr. Petrylak is one of the most respected oncologists researching prostate cancer in the world and one of the lead investigators on the Taxotere study published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Basically, Dr. Petrylak's endorsement of this regimen would be the same as Dr. Eric Small saying some future therapy should be given in front of Provenge and provides a significantly improved survival benefit to Provenge. This data has been presented at the Chemotherapy Symposium for goodness sakes.
--- nothing short of stellar news ---
Its in -
Dendreon Completes Submission of Biologics License Application to FDA for PROVENGE in Hormone Refractory Prostate Cancer
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061113/sfm060.html?.v=67
Should get a nice pop from this -- currently at 5.50-5.68
...still holding.
DNDN got a downgrade with a price target of $3.50 :-\
Hmm... yeah, they really like to downgrade DNDN, it seems to be an ongoing hobby for some oof these analysts. Whether that relly affects the share price too much in the short-medium term is anyones guess.
My guess is that DNDN should hold above 4.95 support. Todays action trawled the lows for much of the day, but there was no capitulation and a late rally above 5.15, which looks to be a key short term resistance/support level. There also apprears to be short term resistance at 5.30. The last few days look like they ar forming a flag, with the upper trendline coming in at 5.40. If we break that, then I think DNDN may finally start to have some legs in this move.
Maintaining HOLD and 4.92 stop. Charts attached.
Nice article (TheStreet.com):
Dendreon's Risks Will Yield Rewards
By Michael Latwis
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/15/2006 7:42 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10322188.html
This column was originally published on RealMoney on Nov. 14 at 7:13 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
Dendreon (DNDN) is taking a risk that I believe will pay off, both for the company and for investors who have a high tolerance for the speculative thrills of small-cap biotechs. The latest news out of the company should prompt investors to weigh the risks and the rewards for themselves.
The company made headlines last week with the latest data on Provenge, its controversial first-in-class vaccine, which is in the final stages of development for use in patients with advanced prostate cancer. Dendreon released interim clinical data reported from the PROvenge Treatment and Early Cancer Treatment, or PROTECT, study. The data were constructive in terms of safety, and would mark a much larger potential market opportunity for use in earlier-stage cancer patients as early as 2007.
In the near term, the company continues to move forward with its questionable regulatory strategy in the pursuit of Provenge as an initial indication in androgen-independent prostate cancer (AIPC) patients. This rolling Food and Drug Administration submission is expected to be completed by year-end, and is the key controversy for the stock.
Dendreon has chosen to pursue a high-risk regulatory filing strategy in this AIPC indication: pooling the observed survival data from two separate Phase 3 studies to support the regulatory filing with the FDA. This type of retrospective analysis is considered a high-risk approach to meeting regulatory standards because it's a departure from the objective of the original trial design.
Specifically, the patient-survival data were statistically significant in the first of these trials, with a 23% three-year survival advantage over a placebo. The filing data were then pooled with favorable survival trends observed in a second study. Importantly, survival was not the primary endpoint in either one of these trials.
The near-term opportunity in Dendreon shares is based on the view that the regulators will place the greatest value on observed survival benefits and approve this therapy for prostate cancer patients in whom the disease is poorly controlled. The earliest regulatory ruling is likely to take place by the middle of '07. If the agency requests additional clinical data, then the timing of approval would be pushed out to '09, to await the results of another study.
But that wouldn't be a disaster for Dendreon. The company is already enrolling patients in this additional Phase 3 trial (IMmunotherapy for Prostate AdenoCarcinoma Treatment, or IMPACT), which should be completed by early '08. This trial was designed to provide supplementary safety data to the FDA, but can be used to support approval if the FDA finds the combination clinical data inadequate. I expect that Provenge eventually will gain FDA approval, by 2009 at the latest, based on its demonstrated safety and survival benefits.
The market, however, remains skeptical about the near-term success of this upcoming regulatory decision on Provenge. The majority of sell-side analysts appear to be cautious on the stock, while the bears are visible with ongoing heavy short-interest on the shares -- about 17% of the available float. This has kept the stock confined to the $4-$5 range over the past year.
Based on current market perceptions, I believe Dendreon shares look reasonably valued even if Provenge reaches the market under the more conservative '09 assumption. The number of new patients suffering from the form of prostate cancer Provenge addresses each year has grown to more than 200,000, which should generate about $200 million in revenue for the company in its second-year post-launch. Even if this forecast is pushed out to 2010 and discounted at 30% (a conservative estimate, as the approval/launch is still not guaranteed) for three years, the stock represents good value up to the $7.50 to $8 level.
The greatest risk in this estimation is the negative funding impact that will be felt if this product is pushed out to 2009. Dendreon only has about $93 million in cash, which should cover expenses to late 2007 at the current burn rate. Of course, the company would like to reach a deal with a larger pharmaceutical player to help with ongoing development costs. It's likely that a deal will be reached once the IMPACT study is fully enrolled and once the FDA's position becomes clearer next year.
As for the PROTECT trial, these preliminary results are consistent with the favorable safety trends observed in earlier clinical studies. This trial still needs more time to demonstrate a survival benefit in this larger androgen-dependent prostate cancer (ADPC) setting.
Additional PROTECT results or further data from the ongoing combination trial with Genentech's (DNA) Avastin would go a long way to boosting the longer-term sales potential for Provenge. Once armed with additional clinical data that support expanded market opportunities, Dendreon will be in a much stronger position for partnership discussions.
Once again, the rewards for Dendreon are expected to be great, with the potential to treat about three times more patients in the earlier-stage ADPC setting.
Can you believe it??? Right after their recent CC stating that they had a strong balance sheet with suffiecient funds to get them through this BLA submission, out comes the share selling!!! Ugh!
DNDN is selling approx 9.9M new shares to instys at an average of $4.54 per share, almost a dollar discount to the recent brekaout price range. That is almost 14% dilution as far as I can tell.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061116/sfth070.html?.v=71
Needless to say we all know what happens once something like this gets announed - TANK!!!! And DNDN was looking set to open strong and breakout of its flag formation too!! Grr....
So I got stopped out at 4.90 this morning (at least glad I had a stop in place), for around a 6% loss. Considering what David has recently been saying about dilution, I am really not sure if I want to jump back in on this one - although the chart pattern was peirced intraday, it is not entirly broken and a reasonable re-entry may exist around 4.60. Actually, a close above 4.80 would probably look pretty reasonable. This just undoes all the recent hard technical work and suggests the short sellers and nay-sayers were bang on right about this one... again.
It also raises the question of why they need the additional cash now? This could well add further uncertainty to the uncertainties surrounding their BLA submission and whether they will get first round approval. for now I think I will leave DNDN alone (at least for the next couple of day and see how the market reaction develops).
DNDN is a great story, but this really seems to be what you (quite consistently) get for pinning your money to hopes and dreams....
Quote from: ScottishTrader on November 16, 2006, 12:22:34 PM
Can you believe it??? Right after their recent CC stating that they had a strong balance sheet with suffiecient funds to get them through this BLA submission, out comes the share selling!!! Ugh!
DNDN is selling approx 9.9M new shares to instys at an average of $4.54 per share, almost a dollar discount to the recent brekaout price range. That is almost 14% dilution as far as I can tell.
Scotsman,
The bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle came in yesterday at 4.5044. The low was 4.51, for an exact hit, and the close was right at the
4.54.
The 50/200DMAs
finally are properly positioned, so DNDN could bounce here. I'm staying out of it though, because:
1. I didn't like the 3.7 million share volume reversal on October 20. The volume on the November 16 black candle was DOUBLE that, at 7.5 million shares, and
4.67 support got violated on an intraday basis.
2. The closes after that candle were
4.69...4.67...4.66 ....then yesterday's
4.54.3. As long as DNDN closes below
4.67, a Double Top is in place, and 3.64 is IN PLAY, which would take us all the way back to the May low of 3.68.
A few things stood out to me from this November 14 article, prior to DNDN tanking (thanks, Oliver!)
Quote from: la-onda on November 15, 2006, 08:06:24 AM
Nice article (TheStreet.com):
Dendreon's Risks Will Yield Rewards
By Michael Latwis
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/15/2006 7:42 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10322188.html
This column was originally published on RealMoney on Nov. 14 at 7:13 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
The company made headlines last week with the latest data on Provenge, its controversial first-in-class vaccine, which is in the final stages of development for use in patients with advanced prostate cancer. Dendreon released interim clinical data reported from the PROvenge Treatment and Early Cancer Treatment, or PROTECT, study. The data were constructive in terms of safety, and would mark a much larger potential market opportunity for use in earlier-stage cancer patients as early as 2007.
That sounded fine.
Quote
In the near term, the company continues to move forward with its questionable regulatory strategy in the pursuit of Provenge as an initial indication in androgen-independent prostate cancer (AIPC) patients. This rolling Food and Drug Administration submission is expected to be completed by year-end, and is the key controversy for the stock.
Those phrases are "red flags" to traders.
Quote
Dendreon has chosen to pursue a high-risk regulatory filing strategy in this AIPC indication: pooling the observed survival data from two separate Phase 3 studies to support the regulatory filing with the FDA. This type of retrospective analysis is considered a high-risk approach to meeting regulatory standards because it's a departure from the objective of the original trial design.
Let's go back to when Provenge got Fast Track Appoval status on November 7, 2005, when DNDN traded at $6.22. Remember how we all thought that we were a lot closer to actual approval?
Now, a year later, we're talking about a 'high risk' regulatory filing strategy? ??? ::)
Quote
The near-term opportunity in Dendreon shares is based on the view that the regulators will place the greatest value on observed survival benefits and approve this therapy for prostate cancer patients in whom the disease is poorly controlled. The earliest regulatory ruling is likely to take place by the middle of '07. If the agency requests additional clinical data, then the timing of approval would be pushed out to '09, to await the results of another study.
2009? ??? :o :o :o
I don't think that anyone who paid 6.22 for DNDN on November 7, 2005 was thinking 2009!
Given the fact that the company has opted to go for a "high risk filing stragegy," I'd say that there's at least a decent chance that they're going to be asked for some additional clinical data, or it wouldn't be called "high risk."
Whether that actually ends up being the case, or not, the current price of the stock is based on
the market's perception of this news, along with the $4.54 share sellling.
Quote
But that wouldn't be a disaster for Dendreon . The company is already enrolling patients in this additional Phase 3 trial (IMmunotherapy for Prostate AdenoCarcinoma Treatment, or IMPACT), which should be completed by early '08.
Okay, not a disaster, but
early '08? Quote
This trial was designed to provide supplementary safety data to the FDA, but can be used to support approval if the FDA finds the combination clinical data inadequate. I expect that Provenge eventually will gain FDA approval, by 2009 at the latest, based on its demonstrated safety and survival benefits.
Again, I don't think that traders were expecting '09.
Quote
The market, however, remains skeptical about the near-term success of this upcoming regulatory decision on Provenge. The majority of sell-side analysts appear to be cautious on the stock, while the bears are visible with ongoing heavy short-interest on the shares -- about 17% of the available float. This has kept the stock confined to the $4-$5 range over the past year.
Maybe that skepticism is because 2009 keeps getting mentioned! :D
Quote
Based on current market perceptions, I believe Dendreon shares look reasonably valued even if Provenge reaches the market under the more conservative '09 assumption. The number of new patients suffering from the form of prostate cancer Provenge addresses each year has grown to more than 200,000, which should generate about $200 million in revenue for the company in its second-year post-launch. Even if this forecast is pushed out to 2010 and discounted at 30% (a conservative estimate, as the approval/launch is still not guaranteed) for three years, the stock represents good value up to the $7.50 to $8 level.
Please tell me that
2010 didn't just get mentioned! :o
Quote
The greatest risk in this estimation is the negative funding impact that will be felt if this product is pushed out to 2009. Dendreon only has about $93 million in cash, which should cover expenses to late 2007 at the current burn rate. Of course, the company would like to reach a deal with a larger pharmaceutical player to help with ongoing development costs. It's likely that a deal will be reached once the IMPACT study is fully enrolled and once the FDA's position becomes clearer next year.
That sounds like a great idea, and it likely would send the stock price higher.
Quote
the stock represents good value up to the $7.50 to $8 level.
Technically, if DNDN goes back to the 3.68 area and Double Bottoms there, then takes out the recent high of 5.77, a target of
7.86 would be IN PLAY.
Math:
5.77 -3.68 = 2.09 Points + 5.77 = 7.86
DNDN links:
1)
http://professional.cancerconsultants.com/oncology_main_news.aspx?id=38604
(Progress Reported on the Vaccine Provenge® for Treatment of Metastatic Hormone Refractory Prostate Cancer)
2)
Nice summarized DNDN info package from IV:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=16955&pt=msg&mid=885461
(nice reading, lots of information)
thanks for the TA update again MelfElf
Cheers
Oliver
Thanks for those links, Oliver.
Friday was a close below the up trendline off the May, 2006 low of 3.68 (thin red line), as well as a close below our QUADRUPLE nested Bullish Symmetrical Triangle (thick black up trendline). That looks weak on the chart.
DNDN would need to get back above those trendlines AND get back above 4.67 , in particular, in order to get out of trouble here, technically.
4.67 is the middle, or "pivot," of the "M." The highs were 5.77 and 5.70, so it was "pivotal" when 4.67 got taken out to the downside.
Next support is 4.37 (November 16 spike low) and 4.30-4.35 (lows of the Green Falling Wedge).
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 25, 2006, 03:29:29 AM
Friday was a close below the up trendline off the May, 2006 low of 3.68 (thin red line), as well as a close below our QUADRUPLE nested Bullish Symmetrical Triangle (thick black up trendline). That looks weak on the chart.
DNDN got spanked yesterday, for that break of important support.
Quote
Next support is 4.37 (November 16 spike low) and 4.30-4.35 (lows of the Green Falling Wedge).
No support there, on the technical selling, which further damages the chart.
4.30 - 4.37 now is near-term resistance.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 28, 2006, 05:26:00 AM
DNDN got spanked yesterday, for that break of important support.
Next support is 4.37 (November 16 spike low) and 4.30-4.35 (lows of the Green Falling Wedge).
No support there, on the technical selling, which further damages the chart. 4.30 - 4.37 now is near-term resistance.
Yesterday's high:
4.37Yesterday's close:
4.30It would have been nice if DNDN had been
that exact about hitting our 5.88 target that was IN PLAY.
Grumble...Grumble...Grumble.... >:( :P
DNDN continues to make progress on the downside.
Tuesday, it closed below 4.15-4.16 recent support. Yesterday's high was 4.15 (former support was resistance), then DNDN closed below the August low of 4.09.
UGH. :P
3.78 and 3.64 are IN PLAY. If those targets get MADE, I'm half a mind to close my eyes and buy it, DNDN has been trading so well on the technicals.
On the downside, unfortunately. :(
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 21, 2006, 06:18:28 AM
DNDN continues to make progress on the downside.
Tuesday, it closed below 4.15-4.16 recent support. Yesterday's high was 4.15 (former support was resistance), then DNDN closed below the August low of 4.09.
UGH. :P
3.78 and 3.64 are IN PLAY. If those targets get MADE, I'm half a mind to close my eyes and buy it, DNDN has been trading so well on the technicals.
On the downside, unfortunately. :(
The 3.78 target MADE in the final hour this afternoon.
3.64 still is IN PLAY.
crums...
Whatever happened to ol' DNDN, it really is in the house of pain once again. Looks like it could be ripe for a reversal down here though...
Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 09, 2007, 04:14:36 PM
crums...
Whatever happened to ol' DNDN, it really is in the house of pain once again.
Scotsman,
I'd say that players got tired of being vexed by this stock, just like we did. :D
Quote
Looks like it could be ripe for a reversal down here though...
That's what I'm thinking, too.
Yesterday was a nice Bullish Doji Star Hammer if it can get some follow-thru to the upside. I was disappointed to see that rally into the close, though, because I'd like to see
3.64-3.68 . That's the Double Top target and the May low, respectively.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 27, 2006, 10:15:58 AM
Oliver,
I need some good news at those conferences, so that they quit flirting with my 4.39 stop. ;D
Stopped it out at 4.39. Gain: 8.1%
I made some on that sale, after holding DNDN for 4 months.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 20, 2006, 11:39:07 AM
Sold remaining 75% of my position at 5.07 for a 10.7% gain.
Gain on the trade: 11.3%.
It's a better gain than I had holding for 4 months, but it's ver-ry disappointing.
That sale of the "Gap To Crap" gave me a 19.4% gain on the two trades, so I've got some house money to play with. I worked HARD for that money, though, so I'm not real fond of the idea of handing it back. :D
If we get near
3.64-3.68, though, I'd become more interested. That's also in the analyst's 3.50 target area that REALDEALS mentioned back in November, but 3.50 is in "Falling Knife" zone.
The big risk in this stock is that Hell yawns below 3.68. There's no support, going back FOUR YEARS, so I'd want to see some evidence that it's put in a bottom.
And, I'd want someone to hold my hand while I'm long, to reassure me. :D
I'll be looking for reversal confirmation on DNDN, that doji star sets the benchmarks quite nicely. but htis time I think it will only be a small position, DNDN has vexed us too many times!!!
It may also be worth having a bit of a recap on their progress and timelines for Provenge, the concern being that this hasn't simply been a technical decline, but there may well be serious underlying fundamental reasons too. Hmmm.... I'll have a look into it.
I ain't gonna hold your hand, and I don't think you need anyone to, but I will certainly do my best to contribute what I can on this one.
Cheers Melf,
ST
OK, here is the first potential near term driver, which should be coming up in the next couple of days and will almost certainly move this stock in a major way:
From thestreet.com
This also will be a busy year for Dendreon (DNDN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), as the Food and Drug Administration begins its review of the company's experimental prostate cancer vaccine, Provenge. On or about Jan. 12, Dendreon should hear whether the Provenge application was accepted and whether it will be granted a priority (six-month) review.
If so, the next big event likely will be an FDA advisory panel meeting to discuss the Provenge clinical data. You might see such a panel scheduled in March or April.
To date, investors -- and many prostate cancer doctors -- have been skeptical about Provenge's chances for FDA approval. The biggest hang-up: While efficacy data suggest that Provenge can prolong survival of men with advanced, hormone-refractory prostate cancer, the clinical data generated so far is a bit sparse. Still, there is ample room for debate over this issue, which should make the advisory panel a certain highlight for biotech investors this year.
They are anticipating to hear news from the FDA by the end of this week, which will certainly cause a big move one way or the other. So entering a position right now will really be betting on whether they get this acceptance and priority review. Its dangerous, but if it is accepted for a review, we could easily see a 30% or so move, which would put DNDN back to around $5-5.40. Downside risk of negative news, as always, is just.... scary.
Take your pick... I onlyy wish I didn't like these high risk plays so much ??? ???
Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 10, 2007, 06:23:58 AM
OK, here is the first potential near term driver, which should be coming up in the next couple of days and will almost certainly move this stock in a major way:
From thestreet.com
This also will be a busy year for Dendreon (DNDN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), as the Food and Drug Administration begins its review of the company's experimental prostate cancer vaccine, Provenge. On or about Jan. 12,
Scotsman,
Thanks for that information. Applause.
Interesting.
Quote
Take your pick... I onlyy wish I didn't like these high risk plays so much ??? ???
I know. :D
Quote
I ain't gonna hold your hand, and I don't think you need anyone to, but I will certainly do my best to contribute what I can on this one.
No, that wasn't a good idea. You'd crush my teeny tiny tarsals. ;D >:D
Hey Melf,
Soo.... did you dip your teeny tiny tarsals into DNDN? I thought it was worth giving it a go on Wednesday, as we had a nice solid reversal candle, and picked some up at 3.97. Stop on the trade is currently at 3.72, giving a risk of 6.3%, barring a gap down. Having a look at the chart it looks to me like DNDN has been forming a bullish WolfeWave. The lead-in is good (negative), descending wedge with valid points 1-4 and a reversal downside fakeout at point 5. I put the WW target at around 4.45, currently, giving about a 12% gain from my entry.
Any thoughts? Still no news from DNDN yet, whether this may come today or not remains to be seen, but so far it has been acting well. Currently hitting 4.20 resistance.
Lets se how this goes, I'm tempted to put in a limit order to sell a portion at my WW target and see if it hits. If the news is positive, I anticipate DNDN going much higher though.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 12, 2007, 11:44:14 AM
Hey Melf,
Soo.... did you dip your teeny tiny tarsals into DNDN?
No, I didn't, dang it! I was look for the 3.64-3.68 target to get MADE.
(EDIT...3.64, not 1.64)
Quote
I thought it was worth giving it a go on Wednesday, as we had a nice solid reversal candle, and picked some up at 3.97.
I was soo tempted to buy that pretty candle, when the 3.78 target got MADE.
Curses! >:D
Quote
Stop on the trade is currently at 3.72, giving a risk of 6.3%, barring a gap down. Having a look at the chart it looks to me like DNDN has been forming a bullish WolfeWave. The lead-in is good (negative), descending wedge with valid points 1-4 and a reversal downside fakeout at point 5. I put the WW target at around 4.45, currently, giving about a 12% gain from my entry.
Any thoughts?
I'm so proud of you Scotsman, I could weep. :D
The way you've structured your trade...the Wolfe Wave... proud I am, laddie!! ;D
DOUBLE Applause!
I missed that Wolfe Wave completely. Ver-ry nice. The low of Wave 1 is 4.16, and the high of Wave 4 is 4.24, so the slope of the target line to Wave 6 is only 0.02296, so the target comes in today at 4.26072. The high today is 4.24, so it almost MADE.
The only problem with that 3.72 stop is if the 3.64 target still IN PLAY from the Double Top ends up getting MADE.
Quote
Lets se how this goes, I'm tempted to put in a limit order to sell a portion at my WW target and see if it hits.
There you go! That would defend against that.
Quote
If the news is positive, I anticipate DNDN going much higher though.
I hope DNDN goes to the moon, we've all worked so hard on it. ;D
Good luck, Scotsman! Great job!
Well it looks like DNDN ain't gonna make that 3.64-68 downside target anytime soon. They just released a very important PR:
Dendreon's PROVENGE Granted FDA Priority Review for the Treatment of Asymptomatic, Metastatic, Androgen-Independent Prostate Cancer
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070116/sftu069.html?.v=82 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070116/sftu069.html?.v=82)
Which should mean no "approvable" letter, for now at least. The review should be completed by March.
DNDN is currently Bid 4.51, Ask 4.55, PM - up 7.5%
Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 16, 2007, 08:11:59 AM
DNDN is currently Bid 4.51, Ask 4.55, PM - up 7.5%
Scotsman,
That would gap it just above the 50DMA, at 4.48.
It would be nice to see a "Gap and Go," at least to next resistance: 4.67, the low of the Double Top.
Good luck today. You so-o deserve this one! ;)
in @ 4.5.$ based on the news:
Dendreon to Get 6-Month FDA Review
Tuesday January 16, 9:17 am ET
Dendreon to Get 6-Month FDA Review for Prostate Cancer Treatment Provenge
SEATTLE (AP) -- Biotech drug developer Dendreon Corp. said Tuesday that the Food and Drug Administration will grant a priority review for the company's prostate cancer drug.
A priority review means that the FDA will make a decision on the treatment within six months rather than the standard 10 months. The company submitted its marketing application in November, so now it expects the agency to render a decision by May 15.
ADVERTISEMENT
Dendreon seeks approval for Provenge to treat asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer, also known as hormone-refractory prostate cancer that has spread to other parts of the body.
Shares of Dendreon rose 32 cents, or 7.6 percent, to $4.55 in electronic premarket activity, after closing at $4.23 Friday on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Shares have traded between $3.68 and $5.77 over the past 52 weeks.
Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer in the United States, with more than 1 million men living with the disease. An estimated 232,000 new cases are diagnosed each year in the U.S., and more than 30,000 men die each year of the disease.
In July, the company published data showing that Provenge enabled men with prostate cancer to live longer.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 16, 2007, 08:25:36 AM
It would be nice to see a "Gap and Go," at least to next resistance: 4.67, the low of the Double Top.
The "Gap and Go" was to
4.65, just below next resistance, then a slide set in, all the way back to 4.33, up only 2.4%. :P
The high off Wave 3 was 4.33, so okay, the 4.33 low this morning found support there, but I wouldn't want to see much more give back on what "should be" very good news for DNDN.
Good luck, guys!
the low this morning was 4.26. I view that as a positive - bears/shorts tried to push it down to fill the gap, however buyers kicked in and the price bounced back, leaving the gap just open by a couple pennies (yesterday's high was 4.24). Is currently trading up at 4.36. As you meantioned earlier, I think that 4.65-67 resistance may be a tough nut to crack, but i think DNDN will at least give it another go this week. Depending on strength, I may look to take partial profits there (I should have this morning) for around a 15% gain.
from Briefing.com -
10:30 DNDN Dendreon's Provenge BLA accepted for priority review, possible CBER panel lowers risk - JMP (4.34 -0.09)
JMP notes that yesterday, DNDN announced that the FDA has accepted the Provenge BLA filing and granted priority review. They've expected the FDA to find the BLA acceptable for priority review, and they believe the next point of debate will be whether a panel meeting will be conducted by the C.B.E.R or by the C.D.E.R. In their view, based on C.B.E.R's familiarity with the Provenge clinical package, a panel meeting with the Cellular, Tissue, and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee, could lower the regulatory risk of the filing. They anticipate a panel meeting will be announced by mid-Feb and scheduled for the end of Mar or early Apr. Firm also believes the street has more than fully priced in the risk of a potential approvable (versus full approval) decision from the FDA by the PDUFA date.
"DNDN" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;)
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$ ;D
"CTIC" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;)
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$ ;D
Oops, forgot to update. SOLD DNDN at 4.39 on Thursday. Blood on the markets and when it comes to DNDN, I'll take a profi when I can get it. On the plus side it filled the gap on friday and put in a potential reversal candle. I'll keep an eye on it for re-entry, 4.20 would be nice, but I would probably feel more confident paying up or a break of 4.50. At least then it would feel like this breakout is for real.
It looks to me like DNDN just found support at 4.16-4.20 support level, putting in a nice candle, and looks primed to break out of that small falling wedge. Target of the breakout would be (4.65 - 4.15 = .50, 4.25 +.50) = 4.75, which corresponds to major resistance from the november breakdown. Watch for continuation today.
CTIC moving up ! :)
nice DNDN report & valuation:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/pharmaceuticals/10345925.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
updated chart, up in premarket again ;)
DNDN BIGGEST WEEK OF THE COMPANYS HISTORY COMING GOODLUCK TO ALL IN THIS, BEEN IN FOR COUPLE MONTHS NOW, I PRAY EVERYNIGHT THAT THE FDA APPOVES THIS THING FOR MY FINANCIAL WELL BEING AND ALSO FOR THE WELL BEING OF THE ILL PEOPLE OUT THERE, APPROVAL O7 DNDN ROCKET LAUNCHER!
Took a small speculative position in this one on the hopes Provenge gets approvable letter from FDA. If it does Dendreon should fly IMO. If not, well we all know what happens to biotechs who get FDA rejection.
nice chart, nice volume,
just daytraded DNDN with a quick 7% profit
if next fridays FDA decision is positive, DNDN will be in the mid 10s, if negative, we will be at 2$ IMHO.
we have to wait and to be patient...
cheers
O.
well seems to be pressed the trigger button too early; up 7% again...
back @ 4.85$
OK guys watch DNDN tomorrow... sparks are going to fly big time!!! The advisory panel overwhelmingly voted for approval of Provenge, both on safety (unanimous) and efficacy (13-4). This gives a very strong indication that the FDA will approve first time round next month. With 25% of the float short, I think we will see some serious short covering and banic buying tomorrow and continuing next week.
Absolutely no idea where it will open or close for that matter, but I'll be watching closely, just wish I had the cohones to put more into this one beforehand. However, it was really too risky a play, and I've seen so many of these companies gap down horrifically on bad news.
wow congrats to everyone in this, ive been in for about 3 months now, and this past week has beeen stressful at the very least with all these "experts" with their negative spins on this company, anyway i dont see why we dont open at 10 tomorrow good luck to us all, i dont plan on selling my shares anytime soon, there is a huge market here
Any ideas on how high DNDN will open tomorrow amid recent news...
29-Mar-07 16:16 ET In Play Dendreon provided substantial evidence of efficacy of Provenge cancer treatment; FDA panel vote in favor of efficacy was 13-4 - Reuters (5.22 +0.00) -Update : (Stock is halted)
29-Mar-07 15:44 ET In Play Dendreon: U.S. Panel - Dendreon data show Provenge cancer treatment is reasonably safe - Reuters (5.20 +0.60) -Update : Stock is halted.
29-Mar-07 08:13 ET In Play Dendreon halted ahead of FDA vote on its clinical trial for Provenge (5.22 ) : Note that the co will hold a conf call today at 7:30ET PM to discuss the outcome.
29-Mar-07 06:57 ET In Play Stocks that closed near or at their session high/lows yesterday on above avg volume -Update -Technical :
Stocks that closed near or at session highs included: PDLI, SM, HWCC, ACN, DNDN, THOR, ATVI, CYNO, SPTN, & VMI.
Stocks that closed near or at session lows included: SPN, SIGM, ITU, ALTR, CPB, DSX, & VLO. Watch these stocks for potential corrections or continuations of yesterday's action.
28-Mar-07 23:35 ET In Play 'Mad Money' Recap: Sudden Death Round - TheStreet.com : During the "Sudden Death" round, Cramer was bullish on Altria (MO). He was bearish on Kraft (KFT) and Dendreon (DNDN).
I would say around $10 but I'm just pulling that out of the sky. Long term though, why would you not want to be in this stock. What man isn't gonna want that vaccine. I am gonna buy DNDN for my IRA, and just forget about it.
OK, WOW!!!!!
DNDN is currently trading @$18+ PM, really not sure where it will open at, but up over 250%!!! this is huge!!!
I think this one will be VERY interesting over the next few days.... remeber, while the panel supported Provenge, this was only on the basis of a re-wroding of the efficacy statement to say their was "substantive evidence" that Provenge extends life in men with AIPC. Several of the panel wanted to see more data to be sure, so this could still get an "approvable" from the FDA next month. The shorts will be trying to hammer this home as much as possible, so we could se some hefty downside swings too here. still, I think DNDN will be heading for the $20 range in short order here, will make for e very interesting watching!!!
Ahead of the Bell: Dendreon Surges
Friday March 30, 8:34 am ET
Dendreon Soars As FDA Panel Endorses Advanced Prostate Cancer Drug Provenge
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of drug maker Dendreon Corp. more than tripled in premarket electronic trading Friday after a Food and Drug Administration panel endorsed its prostate cancer vaccine, Provenge.
ADVERTISEMENT
FDA advisers said late Thursday that Provenge is safe, and evidence shows it could be useful in treating advanced prostate cancer. A final FDA decision on Provenge is expected May 15, and while the panel votes are not binding, the group usually follows the advice of its advisory committees.
Provenge did not slow progress of the disease, the studies found, but it could extend patients' lives by 4.5 months by stimulating their immune systems to fight the disease.
JMP Securities analyst Charles Duncan C. reiterated a "Strong Buy" rating on the stock, and raised his price target to $20 per share from $12.
"We believe the panel vote and commentary to clearly signal robust physician interest in this novel treatment," he said. "Therefore, we now anticipate faster and perhaps broader adoption than previously modeled."
Banc of America Securities analyst William Ho said questions remain about Provenge, as the drug was tested on a small population and the trial did not have a clearly defined survival goal. He reiterated a "Neutral" rating on the stock.
Provenge is being tested in a larger trial, with preliminary results expected in 2008.
Because of those concerns, Ho said, the panel decided it could not say Provenge was effective. Instead, it said only there is evidence the drug is effective.
Both analysts said Provenge could bring in more than $1 billion in revenue for Seattle-based Dendreon.
Dendreon shares surged $13.43 to $18.65 in premarket trading, having closed Thursday at $5.22 on the Nasdaq Stock Market, where the stock has traded between $3.57 and $5.77 over the past year.
>:D >:D >:D >:D
Quote from: ygtrdr on March 23, 2007, 03:40:19 PM
Took a small speculative position in this one on the hopes Provenge gets approvable letter from FDA. If it does Dendreon should fly IMO. If not, well we all know what happens to biotechs who get FDA rejection.
Sold DNDN at 18.00 >:D
congrats ygtrdr >:D
fyi:
/30/2007 - Fidelity / Zack's Report ---
In part , the report says....
KEY POINTS
We upgrade Dendreon shares from Hold to Buy with a price target of $20 per share. Our upgrade is based on the favorable opinion from the FDA advisory committee with respect to the safety and efficacy of Provenge. The FDA advisory committee voted 17 to 0 in favor of the safety of Provenge in response to the question and 13 to 4 in favor of the efficacy question. With the positive opinion from the expert panel, the chance of final approval for Provenge increased greatly although the FDA is not bound to adopt the panel opinion, but it usually does. We estimate full approval of Provenge in May, 2007 by the FDA. Estimated US sales from 2007 to 2010 will be $25, $80, $160 and $300 million respectively. We estimate the company will be profitable in 2009 with an EPS of $ 0.14. With sales potential over $1 billion, Provenge will provide both top line and bottom line growth for Dendreon in the coming years. Our price target is $20.00 based on estimated EPS of $1.07 in 2010.
Quote from: pompano on March 29, 2007, 09:58:58 PM
I would say around $10 but I'm just pulling that out of the sky. Long term though, why would you not want to be in this stock. What man isn't gonna want that vaccine. I am gonna buy DNDN for my IRA, and just forget about it.
As I have posted a couple of times before, DNDN is the REAL DEAL.
Not sure why DNDN and CTIC's threads have combined.
DNDN is heading to $50 within a year IF approved (95% chance following yesterday's conference) based on basic fundamentals. Could hit $100 a year later if they increase their manufacturing capacity. The only potential competitor, CEGE, is AT LEAST 3 yrs behind.
DNDN is the real deal!
been in for 2 months now, congrats to everyone in financially and congrats to the people suffering out there from pc anyway seems like everyone quickly took their profits but im staying in i dont think the fda will wait for the current study, this is needed immediatly which was obvious from the panel comitties meeting, also keep in mind the fda chairman suffered from pc and his family which could have some sway also, this drug has such potential. people tried to make a big deal about dr gold saying they will not partner, why partner it will only hurt margins, we have the best drug out there for pc.
Quote from: stockpicker on March 30, 2007, 12:42:29 PM
Not sure why DNDN and CTIC's threads have combined.
The threads were never combined.
Saffeysite1 the originator of this thread, that is the way he started this thread. With 2 stock picks on the same thread. I know it is confusing when one tries to post about 2 different picks on the same thread. That is the way I see it ! ???
Should be one thread one stock pick. I don't like the thought of multiple picks on the same thread ::)
But I do believe the thread is dominated by discussion on DNDN.
Yea, this was the most pertinent thread for DNDN that I could find when I searched...
Congrats to those who didn't miss this one....like I did. :'(
May enter on Monday
Man, what the heck just happened here? I totally missed this thread. ;)
Congrats to those who ride on it. ;)
Saw the story on CNBC wed. while i was working out at the fitness center. Went home and bought some with 6 seconds to go in the session. I did not sell any fri.,though my wife said SELL! Still,i'm up 144% and won't this go up into May,when it supposedly gets approved? Wish they were all like this.
I think it could, but we have to remember that this stock had a huge short position and is first and foremost on everyone's radars. That means that there will be a lot of hedge funds and the like trying to break it down as much as possible, to cover their shorts and make more money on this stock.
Now the main problem with the approval nod from the FDA panel is that they voted in favour of a revised voting question that Provenge provides "substantial evidence" of efficacy, not that it demonstartes efficacy. This is a much weaker statement, and shorts will be all over it, using it to instill doubt that Provenge will get approval in May. They are running a second PIII trial at present, and it is still possible that the FDA will decide that they require results from this trial before they will approve the drug to market. The problem is that DNDN won't have these results until 2010, and if they go this way, DNDN will get killed. The difficulty for the FDA is that approval of Provenge when it has failed its primary endpoints may set a dangerous point of precedence that may allow other drugs through that possibly should be approved. It is also a completely new type of therapy (that is desperately needed), and so while it is compelling, there are still unknowns with regard to its efficacy and operation.
The panel approval definitely improves DNDNs chances, and this should be reflected in the trading price for the stock over the next month, but until the final decision is made there will be a lot of volatility. If it does get approval, I would expect a second jump inot the $20 range, which will hold. If it fails, it will get cut to shreds, and you'ld probably be looking at a 50% loss on your original position. SO my suggestion would be to take some off the table and lock in some gains - ride the free shares, and see how the chart develops. AT least that means that in the end, if they don't get approval, you won't get taken to the cleaners. I think there will be many opportunities on both the long and short side over the coming month.
Scottish,I appreciate your comments and look forward to more posts on dndn. I truly believe this will trend higher as May approaches. AS they say,buying begets buying;maybe $25 is a good sell point. If there is dilution,wouldn't that occur after the FDA approval? Sell the news and all that.
I think you both need to investigate this stock further. The FDA really showed their hand at the panel hearing. The CBER division of the FDA is in charge of the final decision. The head of that division and the head of a subdivision in charge of the panel were there. There were 2 votes, one on safety, the other on efficacy. The safety vote went 17-0. Then the efficacy vote, the key one, started. The question they were asked was whether the company had established the efficacy of the product. The first person asked said no. At that point the head of the subdivision brought up that maybe the question should be changed to "substantial evidence of efficacy", but nothing was done. After 4 no votes, the head of the CBER division handed a note to her and she stopped the vote. She forced the question to be changed because the new wording was in fact the correct wording according to FDA standards. (You can find it in general documents of the FDA on their website - I've seen it myself.) The vote was re-started and all (well, I can't remember if it was all, but definitely most) 4 no votes changed to yes votes. In the end it was 13-4 yes. I should add that even before the panel met, when the final decision was given to the CBER division, people following the stock closely thought the likelihood of approval went way up. See an article in early March by David Miller (you can find it via Google) for evidence. He's been covering the company and this therapy for years. Everything I'm mentioning can be found on the investorvillage website mb for DNDN. I did not watch the proceedings myself, but people who were watching were posting a running commentary there as the panel met, and I read that, allowing me to follow in real time. Some summaries of what happened were published afterwards there. David Miller also notes the FDA role in the question change in a comment to a WSJ article in the journal published, I think, on Friday. (It can also be found at the mb. You might need a subscription to WSJ to find it on their site.)
I think the FDA has already shown their hand. It's only a matter of no more than 45 days before approval happens. One way to play it if one is worried is to hedge a long position with puts. I plan to do that, even though I think the FDA has already shown how they will vote. Still, I felt I could not say "I know". I think besides my large amount of stock, I'll also by some calls. I think there could be a good deal of volatility, so might be good to play with some shares in day trades, but on the other hand, the decision could come early and I would not want to be out of my long position when it happens.
I am fairly new at this, and would appreciate any feedback on whether my plans make sense, and if anyone has any alternative ideas.
Hi Jim, thanks for your comments. If you look back at this thread you will see that I've been following this stock for about a year and a half, so I'm not new to it. I was also trying to follow commentary on IV on Thursday, and it is true that just looking at the simple votes or the articles that came out afterwards does not give a full flavour to what actually went to during the proceedings, so thanks for providing these details. I also think that the fact that they changed the voting question gives a positive indication of how they will come out next month.
However, my main point is just that, as Friday proved, there is still a lot of uncertainnty in the market as to whether DNDN WILL get approval, and the bears will use everything in their arsenal to try and push that agenda. So I'm still really not clear as to how price action will develop over the coming month. Again, my concern is mainly about limiting downside risk (and I already have a significant long position in this stock). I'm gonna think some more about how the best way to do this would be. If you are absolutely 100% confdent that they will get approval, then there is nothing to do but ride those shares, however, I don't think anyone can be, and that is wht is causing me to think hard about this. Right now I think August calls might be a good wy to go, as it will give plenty of time for the price to develop post-decision. Another thought I had was a ratio call spread (that i described in the understanding options thread). If setup right, this strongly limits downside risk, while still providing a decent return on the upside.
Scots, thanks for your VPHM comments!
fyi:
Dendreon "strong buy," target price raised
Monday, April 02, 2007 4:46:59 PM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, April 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JMP Securities reiterate their "strong buy" rating on Dendreon Corp (DNR.FSE), while revising their estimates for the company.
The target price has been raised from $12 to $20.
In a research note published on March 30, the analysts mention that Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) panel has unanimously voted in favour of the safety and efficacy of the company's Provenge's BLA for the treatment of late-stage prostate cancer. The analysts believe that the FDA would grant Dendreon an approvable letter for Provenge going forward. The EPS estimate for FY07 has been reduced from -$0.49 to -$1.15. The EPS estimate for FY10 has been raised from $0.84 to $1.27.
actually an interesting article on DNDN from TheStreet.com - seems to give Provenge fairly good backing:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/biotech/10348030.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA (http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/biotech/10348030.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA)
I think most of the analysts are starting to line up on the positive side for DNDN now. Today there was HEVAY resistance at $15 - enormous blocks on the ask, and it held it down... for now. I considered off-loading some of my shares (which have a 14.93 average from various buys on friday - I bought a bit in the PM and then had some limits lined up around $16, and didn't expect it to tank so hard when it was trading up so high in the PM, so had to average down during the day) so I could get a lower average entry. Probably should have, and annoyed that I had the opprtunity and didn't take it, but I expect we will make another test of the $15 level soon.
So far,the best way way to play this is to be in and do nothing. We shall see.
Thanks Scots. I'm very bullish about DNDN but worried what happens if I'm wrong anyway. I have a large position in it, so I'm looking for ways to hedge it. I'll look into what you wrote on ratio call spreads.
yeah, I'm pretty long on DNDN right now (owning both stock, Apr 15 calls and Aug 15 calls). But I am just trying to figure out a way to play this, options wise, probably to complement my stock position. At the moment, I'm with you on that, I've taken out my stops and I'm just letting it ride.
I just posted one possible idea over on the "understanding options" thread. Basically using a strangle to limit risk. You can find it here: I had a look at the ratio spreads and found some great ideas too. I don't have time now, but I will try and post them shortly.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9085.msg94465#msg94465 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9085.msg94465#msg94465)
Hopes this gives you some ideas
Scots, just fyi:
CEO has sold 202.090 shares yesterday:
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1107332.htm
&
http://www.secform4.com/1056696-000120919107022599.htm
cheers
Oliver
Scotts:
Hope you are still holding.
Over 18 million shares being traded so far & on a rally again.
too right i am!! The APR 15 calls I picked up a few days ago are doing especially well!!
Bot sure exactly whatis kicking this off though... something big is going on though!
congrats to all shareholders ;)
DNDN...taking out the Black Candle. :o
Hi Scots. I liked the strangle ideas you posted back when the stock was at 15. I'm finding calls to be a bit expensive now, though. I've been assuming that I could count on the stock reaching 26 after approval but not necessarily higher. So I'm a bit leary of calls that place me close to 26 before I even make any profit. Almost better to just hold more stock if I want further exposure. Maybe the stock will drift down at some point before the decision comes out. Even leaps seem a bit expensive to me. Can I really count on the stock reaching 40 or 50 in a year? It would be nice though to get some extra leverage with a portion of my money.
Take a look at this article I just posted:
http://www.chartsetups.com/blogs/8/DNDN-Provenge-Sends-Dendreon-Shares-Soaring.html
calven
DNDN will be 40-50+ if approved....
http://www.chartsetups.com/blogs/8/DNDN-Provenge-Sends-Dendreon-Shares-Soaring.html
hey!!! chartsetups.com is back!!! but in blog form this time!! Nice going calven!!
hey 422fwhp (what is up with that name????)
here's the DNDN thread that is almost 2 years in the running...
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=904.0 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=904.0)
By the way, fantastic day for DNDN yesterday. Congrats to all longs, another reminder: just don't well those shares!!!!
;D ;D
This DNDN thread is also running for some time....
created on May 14, 2005, 07:25:41 PM by Saffeysite1
Close to 2 years also.
Those threads in Previous3SOF Picks are just that, Previous stocks played by The 3SOF Portfolio.When these stocks are in the portfolio,only paid members know and can view this info.
These threads will not be merged to any others on the board. This is a history of 3SOF Trading
Guest and none paid members should consider theirself's privileged to view Previous 3SOF Picks Board.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on April 06, 2007, 06:58:46 AM
hey!!! chartsetups.com is back!!! but in blog form this time!! Nice going calven!!
Hey, yep chartsetups.com is back - except this time we are focused on stock stories. I like doing the research and "dirty work" behind creating articles. I guess we would be considered the BULLISH counterpart to stocklemon.com ;)
I am going to attach an excel file to the DNDN story I posted. This way you guys can input your own values/estimates into the table.... :)
Very interesting stuff - either way with approval I dont see how shares don't see upwards of 50$
BTW - If anyone is interested in writing quality articles/tutorials for us PM me. We offer 50% of adsense revenue share for a lifetime... we are trying to assemble a team of 10 or so writers to deliver fresh content to our site.
calven
Quote from: calven on April 06, 2007, 12:04:45 AM
Take a look at this article I just posted:
http://www.chartsetups.com/blogs/8/DNDN-Provenge-Sends-Dendreon-Shares-Soaring.html
calven
Glad to read you again. Hope to hear from you more often
nice IV quotation ;)
The light bulb went off in someone's head on Wall
Street on Thursday...
Someone on Wall Street took a careful look at DNDN on
Thursday morning, and like the ship captain in the
Poseidon Adventure they looked out and saw the coming
tsunami and said "OH MY GOD, turn on those buy
programs now, TURN THEM ON!"
Some of the shorts will go bankrupt and will be out of
business before this is over.
Stocks are not supposed to do what DNDN did on
Thursday, ever. The jump last Friday and the 92
million share day were predictable if Provenge
received a strong endorsement from the advisory
committee, which it did. Stocks that jump on news are
supposed to see their volume decline about in half
each of the next several trading days as the story
runs out of legs and normal trading resumes. Volume in
DNDN fell to 13 million shares on Wednesday. This is
exactly what DNDN was doing until about one hour into
trading on Thursday, then someone on Wall Street hit
the panic buy button.
DNDN went on to trade 60 million shares on Thursday
and climb almost 20% on no new news, no analyst
upgrades, no events at all that should have caused the
stock to trade more than 10 million shares on a get
out of town day before the three day weekend.
Now, why has it taken a week for what is about to
happen to soak in to someone' mind with access to the
buy button on Wall Street? First, and remember this,
this has never happened before in this way in the
history of Wall Street. You have never had such a
leveraged bet to the downside that was so incredibly
stupid and wrong going into an event that has almost
unlimited upside without the shorts, a chance to own
some of the only 82 million shares in the world of the
company with the biggest breakthrough in cancer since
surgery and radiation. Second, and equally important,
you have never had such corrupt and lopsided and wrong
analysis passed off as research since probably the
late 1920's. Hence, there is not a single research
report someone on Wall Street can pick up and read and
say WOW, Provenge is a $2 billion plus drug and DNDN
is worth 5 to 20 times that $2 billion figure,
discounted back for risk and time. That discounted
value is triple digits in and of itself. The analysts
were still out screaming in the press on Friday and
Monday that the FDA would not approve what their
advisory panel just voted overwhelmingly to approve,
now that's corrupt.
On Thursday, when the buy button was hit on the buy
program, it quickly took out an unprepared line of
defense at $15.40. The shorts attempted to regroup at
$15.88, $16, $16,72, and $17. All of these lines of
defense were quickly over-run and the buying program
marched straight to $18. This is where the shorts were
able to regroup and throw everything they had to stop
the wave. However, the only thing they have left to
fight with is MORE NAKED SHORTING. So, at the end of
the day, net-net, there may actually have been an
increase in the short position because of the three
hour and 40 million share fight Thursday afternoon to
defend or breakthrough $18.
Now, if you have not fully comprehended what I have
just written in setting the stage, then stop here and
go back and re-read it before you move on to read
about the coming Tsunami and the light bulb that went
off in some Wall Street Captains head.
First, this person realized that the ASS (Ashcoff,
Shenouda, & Sendek) team of analysts are lying. The
FDA will 100% not keep Provenge off the market to run
the 9902B study, that's right I said 100%. The only
risk to approval by May is the CMC section (which is
so far so good), or some excuse like working on the
safety plan so that the FDA can approve Provenge
subject to a 90 day delay which would really be about
finishing enrollment in 9902B by mid summer. I give
the odds of approval in May 98% and the odds of
approval in 2007 99.98%. This Wall Street Captain
knows approval of a billion dollar cancer drug in a
now small cap company is only weeks away, maybe only
days away.
Second, the stock is so heavily shorted that almost
every brokerage firm on Wall Street has a negative
imbalance (naked short) position. This means in a
couple of days, if the brokerage firm does not come
into balance by locating more shares to borrow or by
buying back DNDN to close out the imbalance, then the
brokerage firm can not sell more stock short without
first having the shares borrowed in advance or having
a stock certificate in advance. No more sell today and
I will come up with my certificate or borrowed shares
on Tuesday. It will all be C.O.D. for the short side.
Now, it is a mistake to think the naked short position
has to be covered next week, it does not. It is just
that no new shorting in size can occur until DNDN
comes off the Reg SHO list. The shorts have lost CNBC,
their analyst henchmen have lost all credibility and
will not be quoted with nonsense like no approval in
any stories going forward, and it will keep seeping in
on Wall Street that approval is in the bag and
Provenge is a multi-billion dollar drug. My guess is
over 30 million shares were still sold short at the
close of business on Thursday.
Now, again, go back and re-read before moving forward
if you didn't fully comprehend what was just written.
The Provenge story is a triple digit story. Unwinding
the short position in DNDN is a second triple digit
story on its own.
There is a third independent triple digit story which
is exploding now and will keep exploding over the next
few weeks. The call options for April and May are
going to be exercised en masse. Today, there are over
25 million April and May options to buy DNDN stock at
$10 or less. Most of these deep in the money calls
will be exercised and not sold and the market makers
and call sellers must deliver over 20 million shares
to the owners of these calls in the next few weeks.
And because of Reg SHO they can not deliver phantom
shares. This is no OSTK people, this is the biggest
story on Wall Street and all eyes are on it. The SEC
knows it and every compliance department knows it on
the Street.
The fourth independent triple digit wave that may hit
DNDN is all of the other call options that may soon be
deep in the money for April and May followed by all of
the August call options. There are over 8 million more
April and May calls written at $12 1/2 and $15 that
are now deep in the money and will be much deeper when
this stock rolls into the mid 20's next week. There
are over 5 million August calls that are deep in the
money now.
DNDN was the second most active stock in the market on
no news on Thursday. DNDN was the 6th largest gainer
on no new news on Thursday. Some Wall Street Captain
chose to hit the panic buy button on Thursday.
Everyone on Wall Street will want to figure out just
what the guy who hit the panic buy button knows come
early Monday morning.
What he knows is economics 101, supply and demand.
There is tremendous demand over the next several days
and weeks for shares of DNDN and there are not nearly
enough shares to satisfy demand. DNDN is right now in
the early stages of hits parabolic run, not the late
stages.There has never been three separate triple
digit per share circumstance in one stock in the
history of Wall Street before. Well, there is now
baby, there is now. Forget the fundamentals, this is
now all about froth and survival.
If you want to see $100 by May, then do not sell a
single share next week. If you have margin, then move
some of the DNDN shares that are no longer needed to
support the margin account to the cash account
(remember it is not an all or nothing proposition). If
you own calls at $10 or less for April, then exercise
them this week (you don't want to miss the big run and
you don't want to pay ordinary gains anyway). If you
can, buy more shares or start buying some of the
November out of the money calls. The reason so many
calls exist is because they are way to cheap and
enticing. They will have to price the calls to a point
where you think it is 50/50 to buy the calls or buy
the stock, or the swelling call volume will not cease.
Everyone have a great Easter weekend and remember the
heart of the Christian message is forgiveness. I
believe the shorts will see enough punishment for
there crimes and it will be so brutal no one with a
memory will dare do what they did until the memory of
this generation dies out. I am going to spend the
weekend conditioning my heart to find compassion for
the shorts. Lord knows they need it.
P.S. I do not have access to all of the different
hedge fund agreements, but it could be that some of
the hedge fund clients actually have liability if the
hedge fund goes belly up. If you have a hedge fund
find out if they have DNDN shares on the short side
Monday morning and if they do, demand your money back
immediately, while you still can.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=67348&pt=msg&mid=1846069
I've been thinking about this a lot, and I really think it is time to get heavily overweight on DNDN. I have been developing an August call position (and I am really only a small fish) in addition to my stock, but I am thinking we'll see some real fireworks next week. The April calls may still be worth a play even with expiration the week after next. I think a lot of people thought that DNDN would be pretty stagnant between now and mid may, with the stock trading around $15, and the shorts holding things in check. But it is clear that the risk to the shorts is simply too high, and there are a lot of buyers and momo players coming in as well. With Thursday's action, we could easily blow through $20 next week which makes me think that my original estimates of where DNDN will be trading on approval are WAY below where it will actually be.
I agree with the report above and see this as potentially a once in a trading career opportunity. While I'm not advocating breaking money management rules, if you already have some gains in the stock, (and you are comfortable trading options) taking some of your stock profits and puting it into options positions could stand to make some serious money. The April options have not been nearly as overpriced as the May options, simply because by May expiration we will know whether Provenge is approved or not. But as we have seen, DNDN has run 50% from its low last Friday, and really this week it never looked back. All of a sudden, Thursday's move makes the April 20 calls pretty attractive, and we could easily see the mid 20s by the end of next week. If you are looking for options exposure on the approval, personally I would let the May calls go (unless you want to hedge your position) and move straight to the August calls, for the simple reason that if the FDA gives Provenge the nod on or around May 15, there will only be 3 trading days before expiration to sell them (or convert them) The stock will jump, but in the 3 months after, I think we will see further price appreciation as funds enter (probably most major funds with bioech exposure still consider a position in DNDN as too risky) and the ramifications of this new treatment start to sink in (plus the remainder of the die hard short positions that will have to be covered).
Anyway, if anyone else has any ideas about how to play this one, I'd be happy to hear (and discuss) them. Thursday blew my plans for a strangle or ratio spread out of the water, so I'm gonna have to go back and have abother look at how I want to hedge my position. But my point is that May 15 may be D-Day for DNDN (though we could hear any time until then too), there is still a huge opportunity between now and then to make some very profitable trades, as well as develop a core long term approach.
TradingMarkets.com
7 Options You Need to Know for Monday
Most Overpriced Calls: These are the most overpriced calls of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Implosion List finds groups of calls for individual equities that are overpriced, this list finds the most overpriced individual calls. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely overpriced.
Dendreon Corp. May 17.5 Calls (NasdaqGM:DNDN - News). DNDN's PowerRating is 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/070406/15687.html?.v=1
as I am not invested now in DNDN I find it very difficult to choose the correct entry point (stock/chart)
cheers
O.
Out of the Gate: Dendreon Peaks Again
Monday April 9, 10:05 am ET
Dendreon Shares Gain Despite Analyst Warning About FDA Approval of Provenge
NEW YORK (AP) -- An analyst sounded a warning note on shares of biotechnology company Dendreon Corp. on Monday, which have more than tripled in value since March 30, but the stock continued to rise.
A Food and Drug Administration panel endorsed Provenge, a prostate cancer vaccine, on March 30, saying there was evidence the drug could be an effective cancer fighter. The agency usually follows panel recommendations in evaluating new drug applications.
Brean Murray Carret & Co. analyst Jonathan Aschoff said the FDA would set a "dangerous double standard" by approving Provenge, which did not meet its primary goal in two phase III trials. He said the FDA rejected Pharmacyclics Inc.'s new drug application for Xcytrin for not reaching its goals, but agreed to review the Provenge application.
Aschoff has "Sell" rating and a price target of $1.50 for shares of Seattle-based Dendreon, implying the stock will lose 91.7 percent of its value in the next year.
Five of the nine analysts reporting to Thomson Financial rate Dendreon stock at "Buy" or the equivalent. Two analysts rate it at "Neutral"-equivalent and two at "Sell"-equivalent.
Dendreon were up $2.32, or 12.9 percent, to $20.37 in morning trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The stock hit a new all-time high of $21 shortly after the open.
It is unsurprising to see Brean Murray with a sell rating and ridiculous price target. They were in the UBS camp of analysts who would say anything to kill this stock. To say that the FDA will not approve (via "dangerous double standard" and $1.50 price target), considering where things are at right now, is simply an attempt to help cover a lot of shorts and calls. I've been on this board for a long time and following DNDN for a long time (and have owned the stock twice before - once for a gain and once for a loss - and now a third time today) and it has been manipulated more than any stock I have followed before. Seeing this desparation makes me more bullish consistent with the long investor's village quote that la-onda was kind enough to post above. That post is quite thoughtful ... I had thought that sufficient DNDN shares had traded to cover the shorts ... but that was too superficial an analysis on my part, and the call issue is an obvious one. So I decided this morning that the entry point is close my eyes and buy. ;D More thoughtful investing on my part - LOL.
DNDN absolutely ROCKED today, closing up over 30% on increasingly huge volume. Its clear that Aschoff's comments were yet another last ditch attempt to allow the hedge's and shorts a chance to gain control of this stock, but after a sizeable pullback in the afternoon, DNDN recovered most of this into the close, and looks strong heading into tomorrow. As has been stated before, this looks like the unravelling of one of the more monster short squeezes I have ever seen, and I think there is more to come.
Forbes also put out an article, which had a more positive tone (although quoting Aschoff too):
http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/09/dendreon-analyst-upate-markets-equity-cx_er_0409markets19.html?partner=yahootix (http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/09/dendreon-analyst-upate-markets-equity-cx_er_0409markets19.html?partner=yahootix)
I have to say I am absolutely loving all this. DNDN is just blowing everything away. I still think there is further short term upside this week, and things could easily get real silly, but I am being very careful to keep a tight reign on my short term positions and just let my long term position ride. Go DNDN!!! crush those shorts ;D ;D ;D
I hate myself not having bought DNDN a few days ago and especially today :'( :-\ :-[
congrats again to all stockholders
O.
I'll say it again. So far, if you are long,the best course of action is do nothing. I'm enjoying the ride.
Love the action, I was in on the the original spike on March 30th at 13.36 but sold at the close cause she closed below my entry that same day(fearing a sell off the next day)..........oh well, no when to hold em...............
Congrats to those still on the saddle...........
glad you are too soxguy!!! Looks like we have another pre-market gapper - up 7% this morning!! Today is the day that shorts should technically be forced to cover, so I think we will see furious actiity in DNDN. And of course, the main thing to remember is "just hang on to those shares!!!!" This ain't done yet, in fact I think its just getting better annd better every day!!!
I do admit that we may see some kind of blow off top at some point, but that could still be a ways away. Every selling attack so far has brought it down only to be met by more buying. I'm looking for this intraday trendline to hold for now.
There's a school of thought out there that either this afternoon or Wed. afternoon the brokerage houses will started buying shares at any price to square the many short positions. It seems the 13th trading day after the initial spike is significant. we shall see. I told my wife a week ago that i would sell my initial stake at $25. $30 anyone?
so soxguy, did you sell at $25??? I'm a bit annoyed, because I had my sell order in this morning for part of my short term position, and it didn't quite get tagged (my Apr 20 calls).... and then all hell broke loose. It was a pretty hairy few minutes as the share price skidded from the high $24 range all the way down to $20 gap support. I ended up clearing out most of my near term calls for small profits as I didn't want to take a loss, but I wasn't expecting such a violent downside move. Stops on the calls would have been useful to protect the gains that I had...
Anyway, I think we ought to be expecting this kind of volatility from DNDN considering the kind of run it has had in the last week or so, and considering it had another 60M+ volume day. Its gonna get real heavy and I expect the swings will be enough to swing a lot of people out of the stock. Still, right now, I would like to see gap support at $20 hold and continued trading in the low $20 range. I'm also concerned by what could be a potential inverse H&S pattern on the intraday chart.
Unless we see some solid action tomorrow, the bears could now be in control in the short term, despite what has been said about forced buy in short squeezes and all that (it is really very hard to actually say how much of the short shares have been covered, what has been added and exactly how the funds and hedges are playing this). Today was a bit of a wake-up call. Be very careful lest you be at the mercy of the wolves....
No i did'nt sell. Am waiting for this afternoon's action.Will probably sell 25% and let the remainder,all profit, run. No guts,no glory.
April 11 (Reuters) - Cell Therapeutics Inc. (CTIC.O: Quote, Profile , Research) said its experimental cancer drug has received fast track designation.
The fast track designation is for Xyotax, which is used to treat women with advanced lung cancer, the company said in a statement
All signs point to 18$ for a bounce? What do you guys think here? I noticed cramer gave it a two thumbs up at 18.05 interestingly enough -
http://madmoney.thestreet.com/index.cfm?page=lookup
(enter DNDN on the left)
Any thoughts??? I might pull the trigger near 18$!!!
Using the ascending support trendline I actually come up with a perfect tag support line of 17.80 - so that is where I plan to buy! ;D
yeah, I was expecting $18 - 18.20 to hold as support too. I'm a little disappointed that I didn't react more quickly to this move and saw a lot of my profits disappear, but hey, I'm still up overall and thats what counts. Sold all my stock first thing this morning, but still holding onto my Aug calls. Made a bit on Apr 20 puts this morning, playing the downside, but I have now closed out that position too, and gone short term long. I think things could be real choppy over the next little while so I'm gonna play DNDN very carefully.
What I hope to see is $18 hold and for DNDN to rally to between 20.80 and 21.40 today or tomorrow. However, it just got nailed at 19.60, so we may have some resistance there, and 20 may also be tough to get back through. It looks to me like we have a descending channel developing intraday, so a rally up to this level would give us a tag of the upper rail of the channel.
The main problem is the bears have the news media with them 100% of the way right now, and momentum is definitely on their side. This could easily turn once again, but no doubt they will try and push this as low as they can while they have the momentum.
I have to say (and I knew it would be this way, this stock is just too volatile for me to handle a "buy and hold" approach. I have to work on the basis of "take them profits when you can" and don't let a profit turn into a loss for now :-\
just fyi:
Dendreon downgraded to "market outperform"
Wednesday, April 11, 2007 10:29:30 AM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, April 11 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JMP Securities downgrade Dendreon Corporation (DNR.FSE) from "strong buy" to "market outperform."
The target price has been raised from $20 to $24
Chart update:
agreeing with Calven, will be bouncing from 18$
(I will not trade DNDN before May 15th, because the US trading time in Asia is starting @ 9.30 pm, not able to watch the market close :'( )
Sold some yesterday. Only house money left. Will buy more as the May 15 date approaches. But the FDA doesn't have to wait till then. Can't they decide before that?
well i got in at 17.74 after the small gap down - looking for $20.20 for an objective
hey Cal, are you still holding or did you get out of this one quick fast. DNDN has ben playing real ugly, and the shorts (and sellers) have just been bringing this down and down. I've been trading near term puts on the way down for some nice gains ot offset the loss in value on my Aug calls. I still think DNDN has a solid chance of approval and I am going to hold onto those positions for now.
From a TA perspective, I think (and hope) that now DNDN may have found a bottom. $15.30 looks to be a key support level. DNDN is back trading where it was just prior to the explosive breakout, and I would think that this level should provide some support. Also, the 50% fib retracement for the entire move from 5.25 is right at 15.30, so if DNDN wants to show that it can still be bullish, here would be a nice time to see it. Saying that, with April options expiring this week, there may be some pressure to try and take out the Apr 15 calls as well, although if the stock stays at this level, there will be minial value to them (but for large hedges/instys short this stock, I'm sure they would prefer to have as little stock called from them as possible).
We also have a falling wedge pattern, and a breakout of that could be bullish, but would require DNDN taking out $16. It remains to be seen what the rest of this week holds for DNDN. My thoughts are towards lower volume and limited range movement around this level, but with a stock this volatile, ANYTHING could happen. Good luck to all, however you decide to play this (even if that is "not at all" ;)).
Just a heads up.
This is how others may look at DNDN too.
The nice thing so far is, the doji is above the downtrending line of the symetrical triangle.
nice summarization:
http://aschoff.blogspot.com/
chart:
The most logical support that I could see so far is 15.00 then 14.66.
Here is how I came up with that number:
I entered the High,Close,Open, and Low (from March 30 to April 4) on excel, sorted it out and this is what came out:
18.05,17.92,
15.80 (current high/open)
15.40,15.15,
15.09(current close)
15.08
15.00,14.99
14.93 (current low)
14.66,14.65
14.47,14.30,13.25,13.10,12.93,and 12.00
Then again, it may use 15.08 or 14.93.
All I can say is its absolutely amazing. The shorts managed to push DNDN down to $15.09, basically making all of the April calls from $15 up worthless. And considering there were over 150,000 calls at $15 or above open in trade, that is pretty astounding. (yep that would have called 15 million shares in total!!!!) And the bulk of those were at 15, 17.50 and 20 strikes. (Saying that, over 167,000 puts also expired worthless - so basically, they managed to pull it down to the max pain strike almost perfectly!!!)
My feeling about DNDN is that the institutional players did exactly what they had to do here. April options expiration was crucial, as there is no way they will be able to influence the price at May expiration in the same way. Either it will be above $25 or it will be somewhere below $5.
My intuition, looking at the recent action, makes me think that 14.50-15 should be support. And I think we could well see a bounce off this level as shorts from the $20 range start covering their positions. I don't have any position in DNDN anymore (too much bloodshed made me re-think things a bit and I wanted to see where the dust settles), but considering the potential (and I still think we will se a provenge approval), I'll be looking to develop a position once again.
Hi ST,
It feels good to see that the support levels you see is also in the 14.50/15 range.
It feels that the way I analyze may be getting better. ;D
Ares
fyi:
;)
Dendreon "market outperform," target price raised - update
Tuesday, April 24, 2007 3:43:05 PM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, April 24 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JMP Securities reiterate their "market outperform" rating on Dendreon Corporation (DNR.FSE). The target price has been raised from $24 to $26.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that Provenge's BLA (Biologic License Application) is expected to receive the FDA approval. While the probability estimate for Dendreon receiving the FDA approval for Provenge has been raised from 50% to 70%, the probability estimate for the drug getting an approvable has been reduced from 50% to 30%, the analysts say. While the worst-case scenario implies minimal downside risk to the company's share price, the best-case scenario offers substantial upside, JMP Securities adds.
&
DNDN: Short Interest UP 28.3% to 33.9M in Apr 2007
Tuesday , April 24, 2007 16:17ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN) INCREASED 28.3% to 33,901,959 shares for the month ended mid-April, 2007.
SYMBOL MARCH APRIL CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
DNDN 26,419,737 33,901,959 +7,482,222 +28.32% 1
Based on DNDN's 20-day average daily share volume of 34,529,055, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
chart:
fyi:
Dendreon (NASDAQ:DNDN): Expect to see additional buy interest today
- Banc of America has some positive comments on Dendreon (NASDAQ:DNDN) saying they anticipate an approval decision on Provenge by May 15th, under the condition of completing the Ph III IMPACT trial, and expect potential stock price appreciation in the near term. This view is based on firm's recent interviews with an ex-FDA general counsel, a regulatory executive in a major pharmaceutical company and CBER panel members.
Despite questionable statistical data, the decision remains highly political and given the safety profile, CBER appears motivated to approve additional products to stimulate R&D activities in cancer immunotherapy. BAC notes that Jesse Goodman, Director of CBER, appears to have influenced Celia Witten to 'lower the bar' by changing the efficacy question during the initial advisory panel voting and believe it is a good indicator of CBER's intentions.
Firm understands that DNDN is well prepared for a potential launch and believe Provenge can be out on the market by late 2007. If approved, they see potential upside to their TP to $29 and if an approvable letter is received potential downside to $6. Maintains Neutral as they remain cautious about the outcome of the IMPACT trial.
Notablecalls: DNDN was in play yesterday and I suspect this note by BAC's William Ho will create some additional buy interest in the name. Mr. Ho assigns a 2:1 (66%) probability to the approval. I suspect DNDN can move past the $18 level today.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on April 21, 2007, 10:06:38 AM
..........
My intuition, looking at the recent action, makes me think that 14.50-15 should be support. And I think we could well see a bounce off this level as shorts from the $20 range start covering their positions. I don't have any position in DNDN anymore (too much bloodshed made me re-think things a bit and I wanted to see where the dust settles), but considering the potential (and I still think we will se a provenge approval), I'll be looking to develop a position once again.
Scotsman, DNDN is now inside your support area!
Will you invest again (shares/options) ?
If yes, before options expiration?DNDN is definetly on my radar!
cheers from Singapore
Oliver
I already have, unfortunately in the low $17 area, but am looking to pick up some calls if we see the price stabilise here. I still like the August calls more, as May calls could be a bit tight.
Interestingly, looking at the 1 month chart for the May 15 calls and puts, there was some very heavy volume of selling May 15 calls and buying 15 puts yesterday. This also showed up on the 17.50 strikes. Not totally sure what this may suggest, but someone is hedging heaily on provenge failing by the looks of it.
just fyi; May 15th is coming soon
DNDN: Next Generation Ups to Buy from Hold; Sets Tgt @ $25
Thursday , May 03, 2007 09:41ET
Issuer: Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN)
Analyst Firm: Next Generation Equity Research
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Buy (from Hold)
Target Price: $25.00
&
DNDN: AG Edwards Starts @ Hold; Analyst Notes
Thursday , May 03, 2007 10:11ET
Issuer: Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN)
Analyst Firm: A.G. Edwards Inc.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Hold
Analyst Comments: The firm foresees significant risks surrounding the upcoming May 15th PDUFA action date for lead cancer vaccine Provenge. Provenge was the subject of a recent FDA panel meeting where committee members voted unanimously that Provenge was safe and 13 to 4 that there was substantial evidence of efficacy. Beyond a positive panel vote, there may be political forces within Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) that increase the odds of Provenge being approved. However, given that Provenge failed to achieve any primary or secondary endpoints in either Phase III trial and that the primary statistical analysis for comparing overall survival was not pre-specified, the firm believes additional confirmatory data may be required by the agency.
Dendreon Receives Complete Response Letter From FDA for Provenge(R) Biologics License Application
Wednesday May 9, 5:30 am ET
SEATTLE, May 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN - News) today announced that it received a Complete Response Letter, commonly referred to as an "approvable" letter, on May 8, 2007 from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding its Biologics License Application (BLA) for PROVENGE (sipuleucel-T) for the treatment of asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent (also known as hormone refractory) prostate cancer.
The FDA has requested additional clinical data in support of the efficacy claim contained in the BLA. The Company is seeking a clarification from the FDA as to the nature of the data that is being requested. The FDA has also requested additional information with respect to the chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) section of the BLA, which the Company believes it can supply to the FDA in a timely manner.
"Given our strong belief in the survival benefit and safety profile of PROVENGE, coupled with the positive outcome of the Advisory Committee meeting, we are disappointed that this decision will cause a delay in the availability of PROVENGE for patients who suffer from advanced prostate cancer," said Mitchell H. Gold, M.D., president and chief executive officer of Dendreon. "We are committed to working closely with the FDA to resolve these questions in a timely and efficient manner to bring PROVENGE to patients with advanced prostate cancer who currently have few appealing treatment options."
On March 29, 2007, the FDA's Office of Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee was asked if the submitted data established that PROVENGE is reasonably safe and whether there is substantial evidence that the product is efficacious. The Advisory Committee voted 17 to 0 in favor of the safety of PROVENGE and 13 to 4 in favor of the efficacy of PROVENGE.
PROVENGE Biologics License Application
Dendreon's BLA was submitted under a Fast Track designation and was accepted for filing by the FDA in January 2007. The BLA was based primarily on a multi-center, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 3 study (D9901) that showed that the group of men with asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer who received PROVENGE had a median survival time 4.5 months longer than the median survival seen in the group that had been assigned to receive placebo. For the men who received PROVENGE, there was a 41 percent overall reduction in the risk of death (p-value = 0.010; HR = 1.7). In addition, 34 percent of patients receiving PROVENGE were alive 36 months after treatment compared to 11 percent of patients randomized to receive placebo.
Treatment with PROVENGE was generally well tolerated. The majority of side effects were mild, including infusion-related fever and chills that were usually of low grade and typically lasted for one to two days following infusion.
Oh dear.... It ain't gonna be pretty....
I'm holding a couple of August calls right now, which I may hold on to (depending on what price the stock opens at), but I think this will push DNDN back below $10 for the forseeable future. Obviusly there were no time frames for resolution set forth in this PR, but one can expect that it will be a year to 18 months minimum before these issues are resolved, depending on whether they want full results from the IMPACT trial or not
I am glad to see that FDA wants to see more info on survival benefit. I was shocked that they would approve something that has no effect at all. Absence of adverse affects is meaningless even placebo has no adverse affects.
I have been trying to short DNDN for the past month but Interactive Brokers does not have DNDN available for short sale :(
I think it is an over reaction.I just bought some June calls.I am hoping the over reaction to be in the tone of 2-3 dollars .Between today and tomorrow would like to see stock down 7-8 dollars and not 10+.
SEATTLE, May 10, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Dendreon Corporation (DNDN, Trade) today reported results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2007. Revenue for the first quarter of 2007 was $80,000 compared to $25,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2006. Revenue in 2007 and 2006 includes recognition of deferred revenue related to two license agreements.
Dendreon's total operating expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2007 were $32.0 million compared to $25.6 million for the same period in 2006. Operating expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2007 included purchases of commercial scale quantities of the antigen used in connection with Dendreon's lead investigational product, Provenge(R) (sipuleucel-T), of $6.3 million.
The net loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 was $30.9 million, or $0.38 per share which, included $0.08 per share associated with the commercial antigen purchases, compared to a net loss of $24.4 million, or $0.34 per share, for the same quarter a year ago.
Cash, cash equivalents, short-term, and long-term investments at March 31, 2007 totaled $88.5 million compared to $121.3 million at December 31, 2006.
Recent Events:
-- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Cellular, Tissue and Gene
Therapies Advisory Committee review of Dendreon's Biologics License
Application (BLA) for the use of PROVENGE in the treatment of patients
with asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent (also known as
hormone refractory) prostate cancer was held on March 29, 2007.
- The Advisory Committee was unanimous (17 yes, 0 no) in its opinion
that the submitted data established that PROVENGE is reasonably
safe for the intended population and the majority (13 yes, 4 no)
believed that the submitted data provided substantial evidence of
the efficacy of PROVENGE in the intended population.
-- The Company received a Complete Response Letter, commonly referred to
as an "approvable letter," on May 8, 2007 from the FDA regarding its
BLA for PROVENGE.
- The FDA has requested additional clinical data in support of the
efficacy claim contained in the BLA. The Company is seeking a
clarification from the FDA as to the nature of the data that is
being requested.
- The FDA has requested additional information with respect to the
chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) section of the BLA,
which the Company believes it can supply to the FDA in a timely
manner.
-- The Company continues to have strong patient enrollment in its Phase 3
IMPACT study, which is on track for completion of enrollment this year.
Conference Call Information
Time: 4:30 pm ET / 3:30 pm CT / 2:30 pm MT / 1:30 pm PT
Date: May 10, 2007
Dial-in: 1-866-293-8972 (domestic) or +1-913-312-1232 (international)
Webcast: www.dendreon.com (homepage and investor relations section)
A recorded rebroadcast will be available for interested parties unable to participate in the live conference call by dialing 1-888-203-1112 or +1-719-457-0820 for international callers; the conference ID number is 3324857. The replay will be available from 2:00 pm ET on Thursday, May 10th until 11:59 pm ET on Monday, May 14th. In addition, the webcast will be archived for on-demand listening for 30 days at www.dendreon.com.
About Dendreon
Dendreon Corporation is a biotechnology company whose mission is to target cancer and transform lives through the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapeutics that harness the immune system to fight cancer. The Company applies its expertise in antigen identification, engineering and cell processing to produce active cellular immunotherapy product candidates designed to stimulate an immune response. Active cellular immunotherapy holds promise because it may provide patients with a meaningful clinical benefit, such as survival, combined with low toxicity. The Company has its headquarters in Seattle and is traded on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbol DNDN. For more information about the Company and its programs, visit www.dendreon.com.
Except for historical information contained herein, this news release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the FDA's review of the Company's BLA submitted in November 2006 and the efficacy of PROVENGE to treat men suffering from prostate cancer. Factors that may cause such differences include, risks and uncertainties surrounding the presentation of data to the FDA and approval of product applications by the FDA and risks and uncertainties inherent in the process of discovering, developing and commercializing drugs that are safe and effective for use as human therapeutics, risks associated with completing our ongoing clinical trials for PROVENGE and other product candidates, risks that we may lack the financial resources and access to capital to fund commercialization of PROVENGE and/or further required clinical trials, our dependence on relationships with third parties for components used in PROVENGE and services related to production of PROVENGE, and our dependence on intellectual property. Further information on the factors and risks that could affect Dendreon's business, financial condition and results of operations are contained in Dendreon's public disclosure filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available at www.sec.gov.
SOURCE Dendreon Corporation
Monique Greer, Sr. Director, Corporate Communications of Dendreon Corporation,
+1-206-829-1500
http://www.dendreon.com/
Copyright (C) 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved ********************************************************************** As of Sunday, 05-06-2007 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend? Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 03-26-2007 for DNDN @ $4.99. For more information on SmarTrend, contact your market data provider or go to www.mysmartrend.com SmarTrend is a registered trademark of Comtex News Network, Inc. Copyright ? 2004-2007 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights reserved.
Fiday...May 11, 2007.......Closing chart
This thread is dominated by DNDN....... ;D
So lets just drop the CTIC from the thread topic title,cause it is not worth the
time it takes to look at the chart....... ;)
not on my watchlist anymore....
fyi:
DNDN: UBS Securities Keeps @ Reduce; Cuts Tgt to $4.5 vs $9; Analyst Notes
Monday , May 14, 2007 12:55ET
Issuer: Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN)
Analyst Firm: UBS Securities Inc.
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Reduce
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $4.50 (-50.00% from $9.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm comments on DNDN reaffirming that its SPA with the FDA for the IMPACT study indicates that the basis for the approval of Provenge may be the positive interim data on survival, anticipated in 2008. They noted, however, there are doubts regarding overall efficacy and the statistical robustness of the analysis. Provenge is expected to be launched earlier by 2011 and near-term financing risk is likely to exert pressure on the company's share price. The firm's EPS estimate for 2008 has been reduced from -$1.05 to -$1.14.
Press Release Source: Dendreon Corporation
Dendreon Announces Presentation of Data at American Urological Association Annual Meeting
Sunday May 20, 6:30 pm ET
-Data May Support Use of PROVENGE(R) as Front-line Treatment in Advanced Prostate Cancer-
SEATTLE and ANAHEIM, Calif., May 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN - News) today announced the presentation of data from an analysis of Phase 3 Studies (D9901 and D9902A) that showed a prolonged survival benefit for patients who were initially treated with PROVENGE (sipuleucel-T) who then went on to receive docetaxel chemotherapy after disease progression. The data were presented today at the American Urological Association (AUA) Annual Meeting in Anaheim, California.
The abstract, titled "Advanced Prostate Cancer Patients who Receive Sipuleucel-T followed by Docetaxel Have Prolonged Survival" (#605), authored by Daniel P. Petrylak, M.D., associate professor of medicine at New York- Presbyterian Hospital at the Columbia University Medical Center, is based on an exploratory analysis conducted to assess the influence of the active cellular immunotherapy PROVENGE on the clinical outcome of patients who subsequently went on to receive docetaxel chemotherapy after primary treatment with PROVENGE. The analysis was conducted by evaluating data from two Phase 3 clinical trials of PROVENGE in patient with asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer (AIPC).
"The results of this analysis suggest that the use of sipuleucel-T as a first-line treatment followed by the chemotherapy docetaxel upon disease progression may provide patients with a substantially prolonged survival benefit," said Dr. Petrylak. "This analysis provides valuable clinical insight as to how the treatment of men with advanced prostate cancer will likely evolve with the potential introduction of new products like sipuleucel- T that complement the currently available treatment regimens for men with advanced prostate cancer."
Study Design and Results
This analysis was conducted by evaluating data from two identically designed randomized Phase 3 trials (D9901 and D9902A; n=225) conducted in men with asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen independent prostate cancer. Survival analyses were performed on the subgroup of 82 patients in the trials that were documented to have received docetaxel chemotherapy following initial treatment with either PROVENGE or placebo.
According to the analysis, the patients who received initial treatment with PROVENGE followed by docetaxel had a median survival of 34.5 months compared to 25.4 months for those patients in the placebo arm who received treatment with docetaxel chemotherapy, a 9.1 month difference. In addition, an analysis of overall survival demonstrated that patients in the PROVENGE arm who received subsequent therapy with docetaxel had a 47 percent reduction in their risk of death compared to those in the placebo arm who received subsequent therapy with docetaxel (HR = 1.90, p-value = 0.023).
About Prostate Cancer
Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer in the United States and the third most common cancer worldwide. More than one million men in the United States have prostate cancer, with an estimated 218,890 new cases expected to be diagnosed in 2007, and more than 27,000 men expected to die this year from the disease.
About PROVENGE
PROVENGE (sipuleucel-T) is an investigational product that may represent the first in a new class of active cellular immunotherapies (ACIs) that are uniquely designed to stimulate a patient's own immune system. PROVENGE is in late-stage clinical development for the treatment of patients with early-stage and advanced prostate cancer. In clinical studies, patients typically received three infusions over a one-month period as a complete course of therapy.
About Dendreon
Dendreon Corporation is a biotechnology company whose mission is to target cancer and transform lives through the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapeutics that harness the immune system to fight cancer. The Company applies its expertise in antigen identification, engineering and cell processing to produce active cellular immunotherapy product candidates designed to stimulate an immune response. Active cellular immunotherapy holds promise because it may provide patients with a meaningful clinical benefit, such as survival, combined with low toxicity. The Company has headquarters in Seattle and is traded on The Nasdaq Stock Market® under the symbol DNDN. For more information about the Company and its programs, visit www.dendreon.com.
Except for historical information, this news release contains forward- looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties surrounding the efficacy of PROVENGE to treat men suffering from prostate cancer, risks and uncertainties surrounding the presentation of data to the FDA and approval of product applications by the FDA and risks and uncertainties inherent in the process of discovering, developing and commercializing drugs that are safe and effective for use as human therapeutics. Factors that may cause such differences include risks related to our limited operating history, risks associated with completing our clinical trials, the risk that the safety and/or efficacy results of a clinical trial for PROVENGE will not support our biologics license application, the risk that the FDA may interpret data differently than we do or require more data or a more rigorous analysis of data than expected, the risk that the FDA will not approve a biologics license application for a therapeutic, the risk that the results of existing clinical trials data or from additional clinical trials for PROVENGE or other products may not be indicative of results obtained in a later clinical trial, risks that we may lack the financial resources and access to capital to fund required clinical trials or commercialization of PROVENGE, our dependence on the efforts of third parties, and our dependence on intellectual property. Further information on the factors and risks that could affect Dendreon's business, financial condition and results of operations are contained in Dendreon's public disclosure filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available at www.sec.gov.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Dendreon Corporation
Got some DNDN now at 11
Ouch, had to get out at 10.20 >:(
Quote from: tokyopua on May 31, 2007, 09:31:19 AM
Got some DNDN now at 11
Ouch, had to get out at 10.20 >:(
Closed at 8.55, lol. I had the opportunity there for about all of a minute to sell the dog at $12 but that is how it goes sometimes chasing momentum, was lucky to get out bruised but not totally burned! :-\
DNDN moving.
On paper, I got in at 8.32 this morning. Happy trading, Pls. do your own DD. Just want to point out that it recently broke yesterday's high of 8.40.
Out DNDN on paper at 8.46 when I saw the 5 minute chart pierce the upper descending trendline with low volume. The 1 minute chart showed low volume piercing the upper band of the bollinger band.
Conditions may change later on but I'm out for now.
The I should have part was: I should have placed an offer at my resistance line at 8.55(premarket high).
I really like the look of this chart. DNDN has a nice little "V" pattern settng up after that gap up last week.
If it can break $9 soon...DNDN could rocket. ;D ;D
I just got out. Market does not seem to like this company, which was obvious from the comments yesterday from the cancer conference. that does not mean it will not go up.i just don't feel comfortable any more.
On paper, I got back in at 8.65 because the 15 minute chart bounced off the 8.55(resistance) that should be support now.
Waited for the 1 minute stochastics to be near the oversold.
When level 2 showed green, i got in.
Too bad I was not sitting on the computer when it broke 8.55 the first time.
Stop would just be below 8.64
Moved stop to be just below 8.67
moved stop just below 8.72
Good luck to those who are holding overnight. On paper I'm out at 8.77 because the ax was not moving from the ask and it's close to 4pm.
I'm pretty sure Provenge will be approved. The question is just how soon??? I ran into the same situation with ELN a couple years ago when their MS drug was taken off the market because of safety concerns. Analysists were ripping ELN to shreads for a while...but the scientific community convincing data showed that ELN's drug wasn't the "sole" cause of the rare deaths. It was the combination of drugs. The scientific community was right and the drug came back to market.
DNDN's provenge has very little side affects and was overwhelminly approved by the FDA panel. It was unprecedented that the FDA wanted more data on it's effectiveness....but sometimes politics, hedgefunds and big drug lobbyist have the upper hand on the FDA >:(
News lately and protests from cancer patients about the FDA decision to delay approval should pressure FDA approval...if not I will be forever convinced the FDA is extremely corrupt.
http://www.abcnews.go.com/WN/MedicineCuttingEdge/story?id=3246469&page=1
The Food and Drug Administration is often criticized for being too lax, for approving drugs that turn out to be dangerous and must be pulled from the market.
Now the government agency is under intense criticism for being too rigid for requesting more clinical data before it will approve Provenge, which some believe is a revolutionary new treatment for advanced prostate cancer.
Related Stories
*
Panel Recommends FDA Approve Prostate Cancer 'Vaccine'
*
New Prostate Cancer Test Not Ready for Prime Time
*
New Prostate Cancer Test Shows Greater Accuracy
*
GPS System Helps Treat Prostate Cancer
*
Don't Procrastinate With Your Prostate
*
Prostate Cancer: To Treat or Not to Treat?
*
New Prostate Cancer Test Said More Reliable Than PSA Screening
*
Prostate Cancer Treatments
"There are so many men around this country that are livid. They're angry that this drug has not been approved," prostate cancer patient Steve Fleishman told ABC's John McKenzie.
This unique treatment is custom-made for each patient. It refocuses the body's immune system to fight prostate cancer.
"It turns your own T-cells -- part of your immune system -- against your own cancer cells. It's targeted and individualized. This has not been done before," said clinical investigator Dr. Roy Berger.
The drug brought hope to Jim Lanpher, 60, as his medications no longer worked and he is dying of prostate cancer. He was looking forward to trying this cutting-edge treatment, but then heard the FDA had delayed approval of the drug in May.
He said his initial reaction was, "Oh, please, no."
"I thought I had something almost within my grasp," Lanpher said. "I was looking forward to it."
Statistical Fluke?
In early clinical trials, men with advanced prostate cancer who took Provenge lived 4½ months longer, but that was the average. Some men gained an extra two or three years of life after the treatment, and the only side effects were mild flulike symptoms.
The data so impressed an FDA advisory panel in March that it recommended in a 13-4 vote that Provenge be approved.
But the FDA is not convinced. The organization decided in May it would not approve the drug until more clinical data was available.
Agency officials declined to be interviewed, but some doctors have complained that the initial studies do not show the treatment actually slows the growth of tumors and that any survival benefit in those small studies might be a statistical fluke.
While the FDA now orders more testing, desperate cancer patients will have to wait another year, at least, before they might get this treatment.
Quote from: tokyopua on May 31, 2007, 09:31:19 AM
Got some DNDN now at 11
Ouch, had to get out at 10.20 >:(
On May 31, I noticed DNDN on the NASDAQ premarket most active.
I decided to paper trade it.
Got in at 9.40 in the first few minutes the market opened.
Saw it shoot up to $13.
I wanted to sell close to 13 when it stalled but greed crept in.
I ended up selling at $12.
Too bad it's just on paper.
I'm currently following DNDN's activity and trying to study its behaviour.
Hopefully, when its time for me to put in real money, it will work the same as in my paper trade.
Still really working on that emotion obstacle. ::)
Happy trading to all. :)
On paper, I'm in at 8.59 when the 5 minute made a new high near the 15 minute opening range's low.
Protective stop just below 8.50
Would have been stopped out on that previous trade.
This is a challenging stock.
Today, the funny part is I wrote down 8.05 and 7.90 as my support and the low today was 8.05.
My resistance was 8.64,8.88, and 8.99. Today's high is 8.68.
Pretty close but it may just be a fluke.
Whoever is playing around with this must have a basis or gauge in making their decisions.
Anyway, I'm still paper trading this.
Looking forward to your comments on the chart.
Quote from: Ares on June 08, 2007, 01:33:16 AM
Would have been stopped out on that previous trade.
This is a challenging stock.
Today, the funny part is I wrote down 8.05 and 7.90 as my support and the low today was 8.05.
My resistance was 8.64,8.88, and 8.99. Today's high is 8.68.
Pretty close but it may just be a fluke.
Whoever is playing around with this must have a basis or gauge in making their decisions.
Anyway, I'm still paper trading this.
Looking forward to your comments on the chart.
DNDN is probably not the stock you want to trade in and out of right now. I probably got in too early...not realizing why it was rising a few days ago. It started going up because of media coverage and protestors in Washington D.C. In the end this may pressure the FDA to expidite the approval. As we know, the FDA approval can be a political and drawn out process.
It appears that DNDN is in a tight trading range. I would like to see it hold the 9ema...but I'm prepared for it drop to 7.55. Still lots of volume on the stock which I like to see.
Once DNDN goes above $9...I believe we'll have fireworks. ;)
Hi kslifka,
I forgot to attach the chart I was referring to.
Also I want to give you an overdue applaud on AMRN.
You warned me but I was stubborn.
I should have waited for more signals before holding on.
I should have just exited out on the day we entered (would have made money on that already).
I recently read Livelife's comment on panic selling.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1639.msg98146#msg98146
The difference is, he waited for more confirmation.
The I should haves...
Anyway, that's what happens to me when real money is involved.
I do better on paper where emotions are not a big thing and logic is maximized.
I just have to make that logic transfer over from paper to the real thing.
Happy trading.
Please don't get tired of keeping me in check.
Ares
I'd like to see increasing black volume as the price goes up.
Especially, when breaking the red downtrend channel.
bot 700 dndn a week or 2 ago at 8.06, then out at 8.75
I think this is o/s again,
long 1500 shares 7.50
(sold my texg flat at 2.00)
g
DNDN: Shares Spiking on Partnership Rumors
Wednesday, June 27, 2007 14:32ET
Dendreon Corporation (DNDN) shares, up 13%, spiked on partnership rumors. There is no confirmation on the speculation.
This has been my observation so far.
It seems that DNDN used the 0.50 extension of the 0.382 retracement of yesterday's high of 7.50 and low of 6.30 which was 7.64.
Then used the 1.62 extension of the 1.00 retracement of the 5 minute high of 7.60 and low of 7.48 at 7.67.
Hit close to the 1.62% of the 5 minute opening range of 7.65 and 7.46 at 7.34.
15 minute opening range is:
High = 7.65
Low = 7.33
If it breaks the low of the 15 minute's range, the intraday buy targets would be:
1.27 = 7.24
1.62 = 7.13
Which would still be above the pivot of 6.99.
If it breaks the 15 minute range's high with volume...
What are the chances of price respecting the new channel?
The angle of attack is similar to the previous channel where it hit $13.
Will the new channel get a volatility expansion similar to the previous one?
For my gauge:
My main building would be mainly based on the levels attached.
My secondary building will be using the high and low of the 5 and/or 15 minute opening range.
Looking forward to what the market decides to do.
Main Building
Attached is my entry on the yahoo board in the search to try and understand DNDN's behavior and find clues to the puzzle on what most people use as their gauge.
So far, the channeling thing seems to be working :)
However, there is still way more for me to learn in this stock journey.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_D/threadview?bn=5342&tid=509911&mid=509911
I just reviewed another entry on the yahoo board and noticed that the low of the day(7.57) was near (7.56) the level I had written down on my building.
It was the 1.382 extension from the previous day's low of 7.11.
So far, my conclusion is:
Support and resistances are not written in stone.
They are gauges for people to cast their votes (in the form of buying and selling).
If demand is more than supply, the price goes up.
If supply is more than demand, the price goes down.
If I realize that I'm wrong on my entry on the level I chose, I should cut my loss or get out at a small profit.
Reassess the situation and look for another entry that would have a good risk: reward ratio.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_D/threadview?bn=5342&tid=511411&mid=512072
just fyi:
DNDN: JMP Sec Cuts to Mkt Underperform from Mkt Perform; Sets Tgt @ $5; Analyst Notes
Thursday , July 12, 2007 10:10ET
Issuer: Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN)
Analyst Firm: JMP Securities
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Mkt Underperform (from Mkt Perform)
Target Price: $5.00
Analyst Comments: According to the firm, the company received a letter from the SEC announcing an informal inquiry related to Provenge clinical trials, Provenge's FDA application, and related correspondence. In addition, in what appears to be a separate issue, a recent SEC filing revealed that certain Dendreon officers and directors are facing a possible shareholder lawsuit with regard to insider trading activities around its Provenge FDA approval. These two issues increase the firm's concern regarding communication and perhaps conduct of the ongoing D9902B (IMPACT) trial, likely casting an overhang on DNDN shares until they are definitively concluded.
DNDN...looking interesting again. A nice rounding bottom above the 9ema. Also noticed several huge block buys over the the past week. I would doubt Provenge approval yet...but possibly announcement of ROW partner soon. Anyway...bought in today and $7.73.
Positive comments.
Getting a pop.... :D pops to session highs on a pick up in volume.
Above the 50-day MA, MACD positive !
Indicators looking good.It may not be done climbing.... ;)
52wk Range: 3.57 - 25.25
Volume: 13,687,284
Avg Vol (3m): 5,020,790
Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
Close Above the 13-day MA
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
3.95%above 13-day MA
4.51%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 50
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $650.89
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 11/07/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Underperform
DNDN on watch, looks like a strong base between 7.50 and 8.00 area....
Watching for possible entry.
hmmm looking good down here, might make a small position soon....nice heads up
Trio of Congressmen ask for investigation into ethics of FDA ruling on Provenge
Thursday , December 13, 2007 15:20ET
NEW YORK, Dec 14, 2007 (Thomson Financial via COMTEX) -- Congressmen Mike Michaud, D-Maine, Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, and Dan Burton, R-Ind. Thursday sent a letter to Congressman John Dingell, D-Mich., the chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, to request the committee conduct a hearing to discuss possible ethics violations and conflicts of interest on the part of two members of the Food and Drug Administration and the part they played in the FDA's decision to order additional clinical trials for Dendreon Corp.'s prostate cancer drug Provenge.
In March, an FDA advisory panel voted to recommend approval of the drug, but in rare divergence from the expert panel's recommendation, the FDA in May ordered additional clinical trials for the drug which likely won't be completed before 2010.
"There is reason to believe that serious ethics rules were violated by two FDA advisory panel members in their decision and that these violations played a role in the subsequent FDA decision to not approve Provenge at this time," the lawmakers said.
The letter questions the motives of oncologists Maha Hussain and Howard Scher, specifically as Scher is lead investigator for a competing cancer drug made by Dendreon rival Novacea Inc. and is listed as an adviser to a large venture capital firm that is also a major investor in Novacea.
"We believe the FDA should not be appointing scientists leading the testing of a rival drug for another firm onto an advisory committee evaluating Provenge nor should the FDA appoint an adviser to a large investor in such a competitive firm as a panel member. It is important that Congress examines possible ethical violations of these panel members considering the viability of potentially important life-saving drugs," the letter said.
Dendreon's shares, which tumbled 64% on May 9, the day the FDA released its decision, soared as much 34% in intraday trading Thursday to a 6-week high. The shares pared its gains, and were up 16% at $6.53 in afternoon trading. Christie Rizk cr/tk1
>:D >:D
Looks like shorts covering here also
Average Volume (3 month)3: 2,623,120
Average Volume (10 day)3: 4,333,010
Shares Outstanding5: 84.57M
Float: 83.48M
% Held by Insiders1: 9.62%
% Held by Institutions1: 34.20%
Shares Short (as of 09-Nov-07)3: 29.99M
Short Ratio (as of 09-Nov-07)3: 16
Short % of Float (as of 09-Nov-07)3: 36.00%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 29.58M
DNDN: Short Interest UP 2.8% to 33.6M at the End of Aug 2008
Wednesday, September 10, 2008 16:17ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN) INCREASED 2.8% to 33,599,660 shares as reported at month-end August, 2008.
Based on DNDN's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,135,895, it would require approximately 30 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Spec play (Long Recommendation)
DNDN has been holding this level for some time now liking the action.
This stock could go back to $16 based on all news release..
52wk Range: 4.05 - 10.00
Volume: 805,731
Avg Vol (3m): 1,263,880
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-2.45%below 13-day MA
-6.04%below 50-day MA
RS Rating: 32
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $431.39
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 03/04/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Sell
Dendreon Shares Soar Over Good News On Provenge...
The American Urological Association has added a "placeholder" for the highly anticipated data on Dendreon's prostate cancer treatment, Provenge, as a prostigious "late breaker" at the group's upcoming annual conference, CNBC has confirmed.
The information was posted on the AUA website today and confirmed by Dendreon's [DNDN 5.99 1.65 (+38.02%) ] CFO Greg Shiffman.
Late-breaker status means clinical trial restults are important enough to warrant being highlighted in a larger, marquis venue at a scientific conference.
Provenge is the controversial theraputic vaccine for prostate cancer.
The data to be presented are from a late-stage clinical trial and, if positive, would provide a basis for potential FDA approval of Provenge. The result could be presented the end of this month at the AUA's annual meeting in chicago if they are ready in time.
Dendreon has previously communicated the data would be available in April. AUA is simply keeping a place in the program open for the Provenge results in the event they are ready.
DNDN shares closed at $5.99 a share, up more than 38 percent.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
52wk Range: 2.55 - 10.00
Volume: 22,413,741
Avg Vol (3m): 2,366,820
Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
44.54%above 13-day MA
54.20%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 84
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $434.05
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 05/07/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Sell
Quote from: setravis on January 10, 2009, 06:39:11 PM
Spec play (Long Recommendation)
DNDN has been holding this level for some time now liking the action.
This stock could go back to $16 based on all news release..
Finally...shares at 24+ in premarket..."what a difference a day makes"...congratulations to all that held on to your shares...retire and enjoy!!!
Buy signal...
Seems to be ready for additional run up prior to news later this month.
Current Action... ;)
Represents positive momentum for DNDN, I forsee this stock moving forward with it's cancer treatment and finding a partner. This could easily cash in, within the 24 to 36 area.
Go DNDN, sustained immune responses that correlate with survival points and can be boosted that will Not affect the immune reaction...Need I say anymore. THE SHORTS WILL/HAS BEEN caught BIG TIME on this one; especially, with the information coming out on a Sunday, morning. ;D
Hold Long and make the SHORTS pay dearly for the shares at least $30. >:D
52wk Range: 2.55 - 22.10
Volume: 17,717,575
Avg Vol (3m): 4,955,940
Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
77.13%above 13-day MA
207.29%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrade to Buy
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,766.65
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 05/07/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
Press Release Source: Dendreon Corporation
Dendreon Announces Data on PROVENGE Potency and Long-Term Immune Responses in Androgen-Dependent Prostate Cancer
Sunday April 19, 2009, 10:00 am EDT
Data presented at 100th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research --
SEATTLE and DENVER, April 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Researchers from Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN - News) presented today data from its PROTECT (PROvenge Treatment and Early Cancer Treatment) or P-11 Phase 3 study suggesting that PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T) induces long-term memory immune responses that are durable and can be maintained following boosting. The results of the study also indicate that CD54 upregulation on Antigen Presenting Cells (APCs), a measure of potency, is a correlate of immune activation.
P-11 is an ongoing Phase 3 clinical trial designed to evaluate the safety and biologic activity of PROVENGE in patients with non-metastatic androgen-dependent (hormone sensitive) prostate cancer who have had a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence following surgical removal of the prostate. Patients were randomized to PROVENGE or placebo following 3 months of hormone therapy. This study evaluated CD54 upregulation and peripheral immune responses in men enrolled in the trial.
PROVENGE or placebo was administered at weeks zero, two and four. A treatment booster infusion of PROVENGE or placebo was offered after confirmed PSA greater than or equal to 3.0ng/mL. Immune responses were measured pre-treatment, at weeks four and 13, and at four and 13 weeks following the booster infusion.
At the week zero dose of PROVENGE, the expression of CD54 on APCs was upregulated 5.8 fold. At the week two dose, it was 10.1 fold, significantly increased from week 0 (p < 0.001). The increase in CD54 upregulation persisted at week four (10.7 fold) and at the time of the booster infusion (12.0 fold). There was an increase in cellular immune response between pre-treatment and week four (p < 0.001), which persisted through 13 weeks after the booster infusion (p < 0.001). The PROVENGE booster infusions occurred from 0.2 to 5.5 years (median 1.1 years) after the week four dose.
Data is being presented in a session titled, "Cancer Vaccines: Human Studies" in a presentation titled, "Antigen presenting cell activation in sipuleucel-T and long-term immune responses in prostate cancer trial" today at 8:00 AM MDT at the 100th Annual Meeting of the Association for Cancer Research in Denver, Colorado.
"We are encouraged to see that CD54 upregulation in APCs is maintained after boosting in men with androgen-dependent prostate cancer," said David Urdal, chief scientific officer of Dendreon. "This pattern of CD54 upregulation suggests that the first dose 'primes' the immune system for subsequent 'memory' responses and is consistent with that observed in our studies of men with androgen-independent disease where the cumulative CD54 upregulation dose correlated with survival. We also are encouraged by these data which suggest that the immune response generated by PROVENGE is durable for a year or more after initial treatment and that it can be maintained following boosting."
Study Design
The study, known as PROTECT (PROvenge Treatment and Early Cancer Treatment) or P-11, is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial designed to evaluate the safety and biologic activity of PROVENGE in men with non-metastatic androgen-dependent prostate cancer who have had a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence following surgical removal of the prostate. A total of 176 patients at 19 sites in the United States were randomized two to one to receive PROVENGE or placebo following a three-month course of hormonal therapy. Patients were then followed with serial PSA measurements to evaluate the impact of PROVENGE on PSA and PSADT (PSA doubling time). At the time of biochemical progression, defined as a PSA of 3 ng/mL or greater, men became eligible for one booster infusion of either PROVENGE or placebo in accordance with the treatment arm to which they were randomized. Patients continue to be followed for the clinical endpoints of time to distant failure, which typically would be the appearance of a positive bone scan, and for overall survival.
About PROVENGE
PROVENGE ® (sipuleucel-T), an investigational product in development for men with androgen-independent prostate cancer, may represent the first product in a new class of active cellular immunotherapies (ACIs). PROVENGE and other ACIs are uniquely designed to use live human cells to engage the patient's own immune system with the goal of eliciting a specific long-lasting response against cancer. In controlled clinical trials, the most common adverse events were chills, fever, headache, fatigue, shortness of breath, vomiting and tremor. These events were primarily low grade with a short duration of 1-2 days following infusion.
About Prostate Cancer
Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer in the United States and the third most common cancer worldwide. More than one million men in the United States have prostate cancer, with an estimated 186,320 new cases and approximately 28,660 men who were expected to die from the disease in 2008. Currently there are limited treatment options for men with advanced, metastatic prostate cancer.
About Dendreon
Dendreon Corporation is a biotechnology company whose mission is to target cancer and transform lives through the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapeutics. The Company applies its expertise in antigen identification, engineering and cell processing to produce active cellular immunotherapy product candidates designed to stimulate an immune response. Dendreon is also developing an orally-available small molecule that targets TRPM8 that could be applicable to multiple types of cancer as well as benign prostatic hyperplasia. The Company has its headquarters in Seattle, Washington and is traded on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbol DNDN. For more information about the Company and its programs, visit www.dendreon.com.
Except for historical information contained herein, this news release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties surrounding the efficacy of PROVENGE to treat men suffering from prostate cancer, risks and uncertainties surrounding the presentation of data to the FDA and approval of product applications by the FDA and risks and uncertainties inherent in the process of discovering, developing and commercializing drugs that are safe and effective for use as human therapeutics. Factors that may cause such differences include risks related to our limited operating history, risks associated with completing our clinical trials, the risk that the safety and/or efficacy results of existing clinical trials or from additional clinical trials for PROVENGE will not support approval for a biologics license, the risk that the FDA may interpret data differently than we do or require more data or a more rigorous analysis of data than expected, the risk that the FDA will not approve a product for which a biologics license has been applied, the risk that the results of a clinical trial for PROVENGE or other product may not be indicative of results obtained in a later clinical trial, risks that we may lack the financial resources and access to capital to fund required clinical trials or commercialization of PROVENGE, our dependence on the efforts of third parties, and our dependence on intellectual property. Further information on the factors and risks that could affect Dendreon's business, financial condition and results of operations are contained in Dendreon's public disclosure filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available at www.sec.gov.
Dendreon's Provenge: Moment of Truth
04/27/09 - 09:00 AM EDT
If Dendreon(DNDN Quote) is now king of all cancer vaccines, the company's coronation may come Tuesday inside a Chicago convention hall.
That's where a large crowd of urologists (and perhaps an equal number of investors) are gathering to witness the presentation of data from a pivotal clinical trial of Provenge, Dendreon's cancer therapeutic vaccine.
Dendreon shares are up markedly ever since the company announced April 14 that the phase III Provenge study was successful in extending the lives of men with advanced prostate cancer. Missing from Dendreon's triumphant announcement, however, were any details from the study, including the specifics about Provenge's survival benefit.
Which is why the annual meeting of the American Urological Association at Chicago's McCormick Place convention center is suddenly so important. The Provenge data, culled from the phase III study known as IMPACT, will be presented at 2:20 p.m. Central Daylight Time.
The continued rally in Dendreon's stock price depends on the actual Provenge data matching, or exceeding, expectations set by the company's April 14 announcement.
What exactly are those Provenge expectations? They're hard to pinpoint precisely, but Dendreon CEO Mitch Gold stated that the survival benefit seen in the IMPACT trial was "consistent" with results in the previous Provenge studies. That suggests a survival benefit favoring Provenge in the range of four to four-and-a-half months compared to patients in the control arm.
The IMPACT study was designed to succeed if Provenge could reduce the risk of death by 22%. Stated statistically, that equates to a "hazard ratio" of 0.78. Again, Dendreon hasn't provided any hard numbers yet, but the company did state that Provenge hit its pre-specified level of statistical significance, which implies at least a 22% reduction in the risk of death.
Dr. Howard Adler, a urologist and director of the Prostate Care Program at the State University of New York, Stony Brook, predicts a four-month survival benefit for Provenge but says that anything more than two to three months will be viewed by most doctors as positive and clinically meaningful for prostate cancer patients.
Taxotere, marketed by Sanofi-Aventis(SNY), is the only other prostate cancer drug used extensively to treat patients with advanced disease, with a known survival benefit of two to three months.
"If Taxotere could be approved [by the FDA] with a survival benefit of two to three months, then that should also be good enough for Provenge, especially since Provenge is going to be safer and more easily tolerated than Taxotere," said Adler.
While the Provenge data appear to be very positive, not everyone is a believer just yet.
Dr. Robert Reider, a professor of urology at the UCLA Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center, is a self-described Provenge skeptic in part because he's uncomfortable that Provenge appears to prolong patient survival without having any measurable effect on the tumor itself.
"In all the studies to date, Provenge has not stopped tumors from shrinking, nor has it had any positive effect on a patient's quality of life or PSA scores," said Reider. PSA is a protein marker found in blood used to detect prostate cancer.
"There has never been a drug approved that improved survival yet had no impact on the disease itself," Reider added, although he conceded that Provenge may well be the first if the drug posts a strong survival benefit Tuesday afternoon.
April 29, 2009, 6:56 PM ET.
Provenge Data Give Dendreon a Takeover Glow
After its stock fell off a cliff yesterday only to soar back later, Dendreon is looking no worse for wear today. In fact, it was looking all the better to some on Wall Street as a potential takeover target.
Analysts are focusing on study data for its new prostate cancer treatment Provenge rather than the latest stock gyrations. Reuters notes the seven analysts following the company had two "sell" ratings and five "hold" ratings on the stock a little more than two weeks ago; now now five have "buy" or "outperform" and two have "holds."
"If you look at a product like Provenge that could be on the market by mid next year, that's a product that could be instantly accretive to earnings," Joe Pantginis, an analyst for Merriman Curhan Ford & Co., told Reuters.
The often-volatile Dendreon stock jumped 94% to $22.94 today after reaching as high as $27. That followed its plunge yesterday just before the new study results were to be detailed as our earlier posts described here and here.
Market watchers were still trying to figure out what caused the sudden plunge, which Nasdaq says it is investigating. An order-entry error was believed to be one possibility.
Of course, Provenge still needs FDA approval to reach market, something the agency balked at doing before the new study was completed. But many biotechs with far dimmer prospects have been snapped up by pharma shops desperate to strengthen their pipelines of experimental drugs.
52wk Range: 2.55 - 27.40
Volume: 48,318,944
Avg Vol (3m): 7,002,590
Technicals
Record Price High
Close Above the 13-day E
MA
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Price Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
35.21%above 13-day E
MA
130.59%above 50-day E
MA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrade to Buy
Earnings Expected on May 7
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,971.89
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 05/07/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform
Dendreon Study Removes Uncertainty
On Wednesday April 29, 2009, 11:32 am EDT
Yesterday (April 28), Dendreon Corp. (NasdaqGM: DNDN - News) shares swung widely before the final data of IMPACT trial were reported. Share price of this tiny biotech company rose as high as $25 and then declined to as low as $7.5 per share, which prompted a brief probe and trade halt by the NASDAQ market oversight body.
We believe the wild ride reflected investors' nervousness about the data of the company's phase III IMPACT trial for Provenge.
At 2 pm ET yesterday, Dendreon reported detailed data at the American Urological Association (AUA) Annual Meeting held in Chicago. Key findings from the trial include:
Provenge extended median survival by 4.1 months compared to placebo (25.8 months versus 21.7 months). Provenge improved 3-year survival by 38% compared to placebo (31.7% versus 23.0%). The IMPACT study achieved a p-value of 0.032, successfully exceeding the pre-specified level of statistical significance defined by the study's design (p-value less than 0.043), and Provenge reduced the risk of death by 22.5% compared to placebo (HR=0.775).
Provenge exhibited a favorable safety profile consistent with prior trials.
We think the data are robust, which confirmed findings from previous clinical studies for Provenge for the treatment of prostate cancer.
Dendreon intends to file an amendment to its existing Biologic License Application (BLA) in the fourth quarter of this year. Now the FDA has all the data it needs to approve Provenge. The agency will probably take 6 months to review the filing.
We believe the FDA will finally approve Provenge in mid-2010 based on the IMPACT results. We also expect the company will announce a partner for Provenge in Europe soon.
We think the approval of Provenge is not only an incremental advance to prostate cancer patents but also a big win for science. Once approved, Provenge will represent the first in a new class of active cellular immunotherapies specifically designed to engage the patient's own immune system against cancer.
Provenge has blockbuster potential if it is approved for marketing. We estimate US sales will be $120 million in 2010, and $200 million in 2011, respectively. We further estimate the company will be profitable in 2010 with an EPS of $ 0.36. With sales potential over $1 billion, Provenge will provide both top-line and bottom-line growth for Dendreon in the coming years.
We reiterate our Buy rating on DNDN.
Dendreon Investors, Be Patient ;)
This company is on the up. It is a high beta stock and will not trade with the market. Look at the calls...there are around 50 thousand $30 may calls. I'm telling you this will be over $30 come expiration in 2 weeks since yesterday was the first Friday of the month.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=48132)
52wk Range: 2.55 - 27.40
Volume: 7,376,011
Avg Vol (3m): 7,358,820
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
20.90%above 13-day MA
102.94%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on May 7
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,161.42
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 05/07/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform
Relax, people!
Dendreon isn't going to $30 overnight. All is well. The stock will probably work higher over time. Sensibly, hopefully, once the drama (insanity might be a more apt description) of this past week subsides.
Look at this way: For the past two years, Dendreon has been largely a trading vehicle, exquisitely sensitive to all types of rumors and innuendo. It takes time to transition from that short-term mindset to a stock that is more suitable for investment.
Dendreon is in the transition period now. This week brought concrete clinical evidence that Provenge extends the lives of men with prostate cancer. The data are good and consistent. As I said earlier this week, Wall Street spent Tuesday afternoon looking for red flags in the Provenge data, but came up with very little of consequence.
updated chart look...
52wk Range: 2.55 - 27.40
Volume: 7,467,961
Avg Vol (3m): 7,981,710
Technicals
Close Above the 13-day MA
Stochastic - Bullish
Last Price Quote is:
7.30%above 13-day MA
62.70%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Analyst Downgrade to Sell
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,940.40
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 08/10/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Sell
Quote from: setravis on May 02, 2009, 08:21:56 PM
Dendreon Investors, Be Patient ;)
This company is on the up. It is a high beta stock and will not trade with the market. Look at the calls...there are around 50 thousand $30 may calls. I'm telling you this will be over $30 come expiration in 2 weeks since yesterday was the first Friday of the month.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=48132)
Relax, people!
Dendreon isn't going to $30 overnight. All is well. The stock will probably work higher over time. Sensibly, hopefully, once the drama (insanity might be a more apt description) of this past week subsides.
Look at this way: For the past two years, Dendreon has been largely a trading vehicle, exquisitely sensitive to all types of rumors and innuendo. It takes time to transition from that short-term mindset to a stock that is more suitable for investment.
Dendreon is in the transition period now. This week brought concrete clinical evidence that Provenge extends the lives of men with prostate cancer. The data are good and consistent. As I said earlier this week, Wall Street spent Tuesday afternoon looking for red flags in the Provenge data, but came up with very little of consequence.
52wk Range: 2.55 - 27.40
Volume: 5,130,689
Avg Vol (3m): 9,022,650
Technicals
Close Above the 13-day MA
Last Price Quote is:
2.68%above 13-day MA
19.82%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,419.45
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 08/10/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
Dendreon Raising Money
Seattle-based biotechnology company Dendreon (NasdaqGM: DNDN) recently raised more than $200 million through the issuance of 10.7 million shares of its common stock in a public offering. In addition, it granted offering manager Deutsche Bank Securities an over-allotment of 1.3 million shares to support the manufacture and marketing of Provenge.
Provenge, a therapeutic vaccine candidate being developed by Dendreon for the treatment of prostate cancer is likely to receive FDA approval in the first half of 2010. Unlike traditional vaccines that prevent diseases, Provenge treats it by stimulating the body's own immune system to attack cancer cells.
We remind investors that the company met with disappointment in 2007 when the FDA asked for further data before approving it. The disappointing news had caused the company to retrench 15% of its workforce and sent its shares on a downward journey.
However, in April 2009, Dendreon reported positive results from its IMPACT (IMmunotherapy for Prostrate AdenoCarcinoma Treatment) study of Provenge in men with advanced prostate cancer. Following the positive results, the company is once again gearing up to market Provenge once the FDA approval comes through.
Provenge has blockbuster potential; we estimate U.S. sales to be $120 million in 2010 and $200 million in 2011. If the drug is approved, we believe the company will be profitable in 2010. Dendreon will market Provenge in the U.S. on its own and we expect it to announce a partner for the drug in rest of the world soon.
Dendreon will market Provenge in the U.S. on its own. However, on a global basis, we anticipate a partner soon. Once sales start to flow, Dendreon can focus back on the development of its pipeline candidates once more.
Following the positive results announced in late April, Dendreon's shares have been on the upswing and is trading above the $20 mark. The stock closed on July 2 at $23.48. We believe that the current share price represents an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
Pulled back into buy range...chart looks good...
following the 13-day MA up, really seems to have finally found a base. It should stay pretty stable. Then when 50-day MA gets closer look for a pop to the upside.
Target $33-38, stop $23. Dendreon Corporation, a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics to enhance cancer treatment options for patients. It's only major candidate close to approval is Provenge for prostate cancer. If approved, it can be a huge blockbuster for the company.
52wk Range: 2.55 - 27.40
Volume: 1,993,934
Avg Vol (3m): 3,979,230
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-1.10%below 13-day MA
3.54%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 48
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Aug 11
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,441.64
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 08/11/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
3 Reasons to Buy Dendreon Today
Historically, tumultuous times offer some of the best opportunities to buy stocks, and the market's recent mess surely qualifies. And while the price of biotech Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN) is already up about 450% this year, some investors think the stock still has room to run
1. Provenge
Many investors are betting that cancer drug Provenge will get approval from the Food and Drug Administration by the expected decision date in May, and expect it to reach blockbuster status once production ramps up. The drug appears to be more effective than sanofi-aventis' (NYSE: SNY) Taxotere and could fetch a high price, like other cancer drugs from Genentech, Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY), reaching up to $2.5 billion in annual sales, according to some estimates.
2. Building a cash machine
Dendreon is charging forward with moves to become a pharmaceutical company with a marketable drug -- it's raising cash, building new facilities, and beefing up its marketing. While companies like Onyx Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ONXX), Amylin Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMLN), and Elan (NYSE: ELN) have marketing partners for their major drugs, some investors like the additional value that comes with Dendreon because it doesn't have one, at least for the U.S.
3. More than a one-trick pony
It's also important to point out that Dendreon is not hanging its future on just one treatment. In addition to Provenge, members like the additional technologies and drugs that Dendreon is developing to fight other types of cancer. It has other active cellular immunotherapies in early stage clinical trials that some see as having the potential to add significant value.
3 Reasons to Sell Dendreon Today
The turmoil in the markets makes it too easy to justify selling any stock these days. Yet, while panic never helps investors, it's still a good idea to play devil's advocate with investments.
Though its pipeline shows significant promise.
1. Waiting for profits
While Provenge could bring billions of dollars in annual sales if it gets approved, Dendreon expects to incur more losses for the next several years while it ramps up manufacturing capacity and marketing efforts. The company posted a wider loss in the third quarter, and some people prefer investing in a stock that has billions in free cash flow, like Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Novartis (NYSE: NVS), or GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), to complement dozens of potential drugs in development.
2. Speculative play
Shares of Dendreon have earned and have already generated huge gains this year, similar to the spike in Vanda Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: VNDA). While some members continue to be bullish about the potential of Dendreon's pipeline, others aren't willing to shoulder the additional risk priced into shares and shy away from the possible volatility involved with approval for Provenge and the uncertainty of its other drug candidates.
3. Uncertainties remain
Another high-cost drug, Eli Lilly's (NYSE: LLY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb's (NYSE: BMY) Erbitux, has come under scrutiny recently as lawmakers and health officials try to rein in medical costs. Some members show concern about the price Dendreon might be able to command for Provenge and the possible changes in health-care reform that might affect its pricing.
DNDN = Goldmine!
DNDN will get gobbled up sometime in 2010.
Even with the recent secondary stock offering,
I can see a buyout price between $60 - $80 a share...
52wk Range: 2.55 - 30.42
Volume: 1,654,884
Avg Vol (3m): 2,756,940
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-1.72%below 13-day MA
-4.11%below 50-day MA
RS Rating: 28
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,992.35
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 03/11/2010
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
;) I am fully agreeing with your statement setravis, a big winner in 2010 >:D
just chart update, a winner stock in 2010 >:D
chart update
Quote from: la-onda on December 31, 2009, 04:53:13 AM
just chart update, a winner stock in 2010 >:D
la-onda ,Today a nice move... ;)
>:D >:D
DNDN: Roth Capital Starts @ Buy
Thursday , January 07, 2010 08:31ET
Issuer: Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN)
Analyst Firm: Roth Capital Partners Inc.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target:50$
&
Sanofi Buys Dendreon
Both companies are working on drugs for prostate cancer. Everything with Dendreon (DNDN) hinges on its cancer drug, Provenge. The drug was approved in 2007 and then revoked pending new data from a continuing study. That data was released earlier this year and met all target points. On that alone, the drug stands a great chance, never mind the fact that the results exceeded expectations. Management and the FDA are working closely together to work through the issues. Sanofi (SNY) already has a prostate cancer drug, Taxotere, with $2 billion-plus in sales. Taxotere has enormous side effects, however, compelling many men to prefer cancer than use the drug. Provenge solves many of the issues and Sanofi would probably love to scoop it up before Dendreon becomes a $50 stock post-approval.
James Altucher is a managing partner of Formula Capital, an alternative asset management firm, and an author on investment strategies. Unlike Dow Jones reporters, he may have positions in the stocks he writes about.
Friday, April 30, 2010, 10:19am
In wake of FDA OK, Dendreon shares keep rising....... ;) :D ;D
One day after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Dendreon Corp.'s Provenge prostate cancer drug, shares in the biotech keep rising.
On Thursday, shares in Seattle-based Dendreon rose more than 26 percent in early trading before falling back to close at $54.06, up nearly 8 percent, or up $3.88.
Analysts were cautious on the potential short-term volatility of Dendreon's shares (NASDAQ: DNDN).
Paul Latta, analyst at McAdams Wright Ragen brokerage, of Seattle, has rated the stock as "hold."
"We expect the stock will be somewhat volatile near term reflecting the entry of event-oriented investors ... and their follow-on potential exit," he said in a note to investors.
He notes that Provenge will be priced at $31,000 per patient infusion, with each patient receiving about three infusions.
"We are not making any changes to our sales or profitability projections. Dendreon plans to treat 2,000 patients in the first 12 months. The first patient is expected to begin treatment next week," Latta noted.
52wk Range: 19.15 - 57.67
Volume: 46,135,379
Avg Vol (3m): 4,789,310
Technicals
Record Price High
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Price Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
26.22%above 13-day MA
43.01%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 96
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on May 3
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $5,379.05
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 05/03/2010
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
SEATTLE, Sept 01, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Dendreon Corporation (DNDN, Trade ) today announced that management will present at the following investor conferences in September.
The following presentations will be webcast:
Rodman & Renshaw 12th Annual Health Care Conference, New York, NY
September 13, 2010
9:35 a.m. ET
Morgan Stanley 2010 Global Health Care Conference, New York, NY
September 13, 2010
2:10 p.m. ET
Baird's 2010 Health Care Conference, New York, NY
September 15, 2010
1:45 p.m. ET
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2010 Global Health Care Conference,
London, UK
September 16, 2010
6:20 a.m. ET
The presentations will be audio webcast live and available for replay from Dendreon's website, www.dendreon.com .
Dendreon Corporation is a biotechnology company targeting cancer and transforming lives through the discovery, development, commercialization and manufacturing of novel therapeutics. The Company applies its expertise in antigen identification, engineering and cell processing to produce active cellular immunotherapy product candidates designed to stimulate an immune response in a variety of tumor types. Dendreon's first autologous cellular immunotherapy product, PROVENGE(R) (sipuleucel-T), was approved by the FDA in April 2010 for the treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic, castrate-resistant (hormone-refractory) prostate cancer. Dendreon also is developing an orally-available small molecule that targets TRPM8 that could be applicable to multiple types of cancer. The Company is headquartered in Seattle, Washington and is traded on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbol DNDN. For more information about the Company and its programs, visit www.dendreon.com
SOURCE Dendreon Corporation
From looking at the chart,
appears to have formed a Head and Shoulders bottom reversal chart pattern...
Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
Close Above the 13-day MA
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
10.29%above 13-day MA
11.42%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 35
8 Promising Biotech Buyout Targets if Their Products Can Deliver...
The following are a few biotechs with promising products in their pipelines that have made the big boys sit up and take notice. Without further ado, the 8 promising biotechs priced for a buyout if their products can deliver:
Dendreon Corporation (DNDN): Four billionaires recently purchased shares in this biotech firm focused on the development and commercialization of novel cancer therapies. The likely reason – the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced last Wednesday that it would support reimbursement for Provenge, the first "cancer vaccine." Provenge, an expensive prostate cancer therapy, prolongs patients' lives by an average of fourth months, and was deemed to be superior enough to existing alternatives that Medicare decided to pay $93,000 for each course of the therapy. The drug already looked like a potential blockbuster, but the recent news only increases its potential market and likelihood of becoming a moneymaking machine. The drug faces one last regulatory hurdle, but is expected to pass it this summer. Expect larger pharmaceutical companies to come sniffing around once it does. Shares currently trade at $41.78.
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
7.97%above 13-day EMA
15.95%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 83
Dendreon up on study results...
Above the 50-day MA. MACD bottoming.
Day's Range: 41.90 - 42.50
52wk Range: 25.78 - 44.85
Volume: 3,227,508
Avg Vol (3m): 3,419,350
Market Cap: 6.18B
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
6.99%above 13-day EMA
9.99%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 92
FDA Approves Dendreon's Los Angeles Cancer Immunotherapy Manufacturing Facility
-FDA Approval of 36 Workstations Further Supports National Availability of First-in-Class Prostate Cancer Immunotherapy PROVENGE-
Press Release Source: Dendreon Corporation On Wednesday June 29, 2011, 8:04 pm EDT
SEATTLE, June 29, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq:DNDN) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved its Los Angeles cancer immunotherapy manufacturing facility, allowing the company to continue to increase the availability of PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T) across the U.S. to help meet the needs of patients with asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic castrate resistant (hormone refractory) prostate cancer.
The Los Angeles facility includes 36 workstations, and Dendreon will bring these new workstations online in a staged approach. With this FDA approval and the fully approved New Jersey facility, Dendreon now has total of 84 workstations available to manufacture PROVENGE. Dendreon expects to continue to provide additional capacity through the anticipated licensure mid-year of one other manufacturing facility in the United States. In April, Dendreon filed a post-approval supplement for its third facility in Atlanta, for which there is an FDA action date of August 28, 2011.
PROVENGE is designed to induce an immune response against prostatic acid phosphatase (PAP), an antigen expressed in most prostate cancers, and is the first in a new therapeutic class of drugs known as autologous cellular immunotherapies.
"As the foundation of care, PROVENGE is an important treatment option for men with metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer," said Mitchell H. Gold, M.D., president and chief executive officer of Dendreon. "The FDA approval of the Los Angeles facility will enhance our ability to provide PROVENGE to the many patients across the country who may benefit from it."
In anticipation of the availability of the additional workstations, Dendreon expects to have approximately 225 active infusing sites by the end of the second quarter and approximately 500 by the end of 2011.
PROVENGE was approved based on three Phase 3 studies, including the pivotal, 512-patient Phase 3 IMPACT study, which showed that PROVENGE demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in overall survival compared to control in men with asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). That trial showed PROVENGE extended median survival by 4.1 months compared to control. Overall, PROVENGE reduced the risk of death by 22.5 percent compared to the control group (HR=0.775). Results from the similarly designed Phase 3 Study D9901 in asymptomatic metastatic CRPC also demonstrated a survival advantage of similar clinical magnitude as the IMPACT study.
PROVENGE Indication and Safety
PROVENGE is an autologous cellular immunotherapy indicated for the treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic castrate resistant (hormone refractory) prostate cancer.
PROVENGE is intended solely for autologous use and is not routinely tested for transmissible infectious diseases.
The safety evaluation of PROVENGE was based on 601 prostate cancer patients in four randomized clinical trials who underwent at least one leukapheresis. The most common adverse events (incidence greater-than or equal to 15%) are chills, fatigue, fever, back pain, nausea, joint ache, and headache. Serious adverse events reported in the PROVENGE group include acute infusion reactions (occurring within 1 day of infusion) and cerebrovascular events. In controlled clinical trials, severe (Grade 3) acute infusion reactions were reported in 3.5% of patients in the PROVENGE group. Reactions included chills, fever, fatigue, asthenia, dyspnea, hypoxia, bronchospasm, dizziness, headache, hypertension, muscle ache, nausea, and vomiting. No Grade 4 or 5 acute infusion reactions were reported in patients in the PROVENGE group.
To fulfill a post marketing requirement and as a part of the company's ongoing commitment to patients, Dendreon will conduct a registry of approximately 1500 patients to further evaluate a small potential safety signal of cerebrovascular events. In four randomized clinical trials of PROVENGE in prostate cancer patients, cerebrovascular events were observed in 3.5% of patients in the PROVENGE group compared with 2.6% of patients in the control group.
For more information on PROVENGE, please see the full prescribing information or call 1-877-336-3736.
About Prostate Cancer
According to the American Cancer Society, prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer in men in the United States and the third most common cancer worldwide. More than two million men in the United States have prostate cancer, with an estimated 240,890 new cases and approximately 33,720 men expected to die from the disease in 2011.
About Dendreon
Dendreon Corporation is a biotechnology company whose mission is to target cancer and transform lives through the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapeutics. The Company applies its expertise in antigen identification, engineering and cell processing to produce active cellular immunotherapy product candidates designed to stimulate an immune response. Dendreon's first autologous cellular immunotherapy product, PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T), was approved by the FDA in April 2010 for the treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic, castrate-resistant (hormone-refractory) prostate cancer. Dendreon is also developing an orally-available small molecule that targets TRPM8 that could be applicable to multiple types of cancer. The Company is headquartered in Seattle, Washington and has manufacturing facilities in New Jersey, Georgia and California. Dendreon is traded on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbol DNDN. For more information about the Company and its programs, visit http://www.dendreon.com/.
www.dendreon.com
This news release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could affect these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, developments affecting Dendreon's business and prospects, including commercialization of PROVENGE. Information on the factors and risks that could affect Dendreon's business, financial condition and results of operations are contained in Dendreon's public disclosure filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available at www.sec.gov. Dendreon cautions investors not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements contained in this press release. All forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to Dendreon on the date hereof, and Dendreon undertakes no obligation to revise or update these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this press release, except as required by law.
Medicare to Cover DNDN's Provenge
Friday July 1, 2011, 11:15 am EDT
Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqGS: DNDN) has of late been announcing significant milestones, related to its potential blockbuster cancer vaccine Provenge. Most recently, the company announced that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has agreed to fully reimburse Provenge, an expensive vaccine. CMS is a federal agency that administers the Medicare and Medicaid programs, which provide health care coverage to millions of people in the US.
The agency has issued a final National Coverage Decision (NCD) for Provenge which will require Medicare contractors to cover the use of Provenge for treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic castrate resistant (hormone refractory) prostate cancer which is consistent with its label. The agency has also issued specific guidelines to local Medicare Administrative Contractors (MACs) to pay for on-label use of Provenge. Provenge is currently reimbursed by all 15 local MACs. The agency did not propose to cover off-label use of the vaccine at the national level due to insufficient evidence.
The decision from the CMS does not come as a surprise for us as earlier intimation from the agency had supported Provenge coverage. The agency believed there was enough evidence to justify the use of Provenge for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer. Apart from that, last year, the CMS Medicare Evidence Development & Coverage Advisory Committee (MEDCAC) supported reimbursement for on-label use of Provenge vaccine.
We are encouraged by CMS' decision to reimburse Provenge for on-label usage as it will allow doctors to be more comfortable with prescribing the drug. Moreover, reimbursement of the vaccine by Medicare is crucial for the commercial success of Provenge as it is primarily meant for men older than 60 who are dependent on Medicare for their treatment.
Provenge now also has the Q-code, which becomes effective from July 1. The Q-code is a product specific code that enables electronic submission of claims, which in turn can expedite payment, thereby facilitating the reimbursement process further.
Dendreon also intends to provide grants to independent foundations that provide financial assistance to qualifying prostate cancer patients. Dendreon will also establish a patient assistance program for uninsured patients.
The positive CMS decision comes on the heels of announcement of clearance from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to expand manufacturing facility for manufacturing Provenge in the US. The company's Los Angeles facility can now be operational with 36 workstations. Earlier, in March 2011, Dendreon's New Jersey facility received FDA clearance. The facility has 48 workstations, some of which are already operational. The LA and NJ facilities, geared for manufacturing Provenge, now total 84. We believe the expanding manufacturing capacity will significantly increase the availability of Provenge which will help Dendreon to meet pent up demand for the vaccine. The company is also building additional capacity in Atlanta for which the FDA is expected to give its decision in August 2011.
All the above efforts are intended to help in making Provenge easily and broadly accessible to victims of prostate cancer. Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer in men in the U.S. The disease affects more than 2 million men in the US. Efforts such as these would also increase demand for the vaccine.
Our Recommendation
We currently have a Neutral recommendation on Dendreon. The stock carries a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term "Hold" recommendation). We believe that the launch of Provenge has been impressive. Successful commercialization of Provenge is crucial for the financial performance of Dendreon as it can drive the company to profitability. We are encouraged by the company's efforts to expand capacity and CMS' decision to reimburse Provenge for on-label usage, which could subsequently spur sales at Dendreon. However, in the long run, we remain concerned about the company's dependence on Provenge and the lack of a robust pipeline. We believe Dendreon has little to fall back on if Provenge fails to keep its promise. We also remain cautious of the continuous up tick in operating expenses.
Moreover, there are products currently under development for treatment of prostate cancer. Johnson and Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ - News) Zytiga (abiraterone acetate) received FDA approval in April 2011 and Medivation's (NasdaqGM: MDVN - News) MDV3100 is in late stage trials. If these products prove to be successful, the prostate cancer market will become more crowded and competitive.
DENDREON CP (DNDN): Read the Full Research Report
MEDIVATION INC (MDVN): Read the Full Research Report
JOHNSON & JOHNSON (JNJ): Read the Full Research Report
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