Goldcorp Inc. (GG). The Group's principal activity is to produce Gold. The Group also explores and extracts industrial minerals primarily sodium sulphate. The Group operated in two segments: Gold bullion and Industrial minerals. The Group's Gold mines include Red Lake Mine located in Northern Ontario and the Wharf Mine located in South Dakota. The Group owns industrial minerals operations in Saskatchewan, Canada which produces sodium sulphate primarily for the detergent industry. The operations of the Group are carried out in Canada and the United States.
As was discussed in this thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1123.msg6153#msg6153), GG seems to have the best fundamental background of the gold industry. The chart confirms this assessment, since the stock yesterday closed at a 52 week high:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1535;image)
I believe there was recently a fundamental shift in gold prices. My believe comes from the perception that gold is not anymore just an hedge to a falling USD, since the dollar rose over the past few months and the gold price rose too, altough modestly:
USD Index:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1536;image)
GOLD continuous contracts:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1537;image)
It would be a pretty safe bet to buy some gold contracts at this juncture, since we have this fundamental shift related to the USD and usually gold stocks precede the bullion price.
We have many gold stocks trading, and many of them showed up in my filters. But experience tells me you should ride the stronger horse, instead of picking up the slower ones. GG is the stock, from the gold group, that is closer to all time highs so this is the one I have to go with.
I'm buying GG at the open, 6.66% of the portfolio.
Everyday I will analyze GG after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.
Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 125% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php). We have great traders in our community which take advantage of short term opportunities in stocks.
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Hi David,
Great to see that you pick a gold stock, every balanced portefolio should have some gold these days. (even though I am sure you have other reasons!)
I am considering GG. Their production increases are impressive, I would however like to get in a bit lower so I will probably miss the train! An alternative is Rangy, which is a combined gold/currency play (South African exposure) more risky but the reward could be outstanding.
DAVE,
I have been thinking about the effect of the overall market on prices.
isn't it hard to do TA in an unsteady market.
i like GG. watching still.
Hello Mr. Rudolph
But you have really not fully appreciated Goldcorp's properties and prospects. First of all the inclusion of Wheaton River Minerals has brought many incredible low cost gold properties in Mexico, Argentina and Brazil. The compnay also produces copper which they use to offset the costs of mining the gold. This brings costs to a ridiculously low level and will be producing enormous earnings going forward. I am looking for 40 cents for this Qtr and 1 dollar for FY 05 IMO. This should bring the stock to 30-40 dollars a share by the end of the summer IMO
Whatta ya think of the amount of dividends paid out? What did that amount to in the year shown here? Anybody know? Yahoo says 1.12%. Is that right?
I appreciate your posts a lot, it's a pity I don't have time now to go through them, perhaps in the following update.
GG closed at support $15.77, prior resistance. The uptrend is very steep so it's natural for the stock to fall a bit in profit taking.
But I'm with armoredsaint, once the stock gets above this $16 level it's potential will be fully recognized and the stock should rapidly rise above $20.
The dollar has been strong, so the gold bullion, which is priced in dollars (and can be considered as a substitute to the dollar as a reserve), tried to go down over the last few days.
But it didn't fall much and «value investors» came in to bid GG up to where in opened on Friday's session, despite the fall in gold price.
GG reacted to an ascending trendline and everything is in place for a decisive breakout of the $16 level. After this the stock will probably climb over the $20 mark.
GG made a not so pretty candlestick yesterday. Gold did retrace a bit because of the dollar's strength but not so much as one could figure for a start. I'm a believer in gold for the medium term and GG is the best stock on the sector, both fundamentally and technically.
So I'm prepared to give it a little room to manouver ... $15.16 is my treshold, I don't want to see GG close below that price.
David
In principle we have the same trading strategy. We just execute them differently ::)
I bought GSS Yesterday I could as well have bought GG. I guess the decision was based on GSS more bullish growth potential.
When I evaluate gold stocks there are three components:
- Exchange rates
- Gold price
- The stocks fundamentals
I am in RANGY due to the exchange rate play and GSS is as said a growth story. But the real story for all three Stocks is the gold price!
The decision when to buy and when to sell Gold stocks have to be based on the prospects for the Gold price. You will see that 90% of all gold stocks has a similar pattern like GG. It has therefore more to do with gold price TA than the stock TA.
If you look at the chart below you will see that the gold price has fallen down to a level very close to bollinger lower band. As the theory goes you would expect it to climb back to the upper band. I am sure you could do a much better TA of the gold price (and I would really appreciate if you did!) but my point is that when you decide whether to sell or buy gold stocks just check in on the gold chart as well. As I read the chart it is time to buy now and not to sell.
Mike
Thanks for your analysis Michael, I'll do that gold chart TA in the weekend. I see many different patterns across the gold sector stocks though, they don't always act in unison.
The stronger the better, I believe, and GG is the strongest of the sector. The stock is absolutely ready to take off from this $16 zone, but of course, it couldn't do that yesterday, with those pundits (oops, I saw on the dictionary the meaning of «pundits», and what I meant was exactly the opposite ;D) buying for the wrong reasons (the London terrorist attack).
It is possible those guys were already punished with the stock closing 19 cents (or a bit more than 1%) below the open, and the uptrend is set to resume now. But it is possible too the stock goes down a bit today, with people that bought yesterday for the wrong motives exiting.
Holding on to GG, the strongest 8)
Jesus, I just saw, GG provides a monthly dividend? Cool :-*
Read the news, it tells why this company is so strong:
Goldcorp Declares Seventh Monthly Dividend Payment for 2005 (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BFD7041CB%2D897C%2D46C7%2DA0C8%2DAB417C70662B%7D)
Perhaps GG will have to consolidate for some time around the $16 level, I don't know. But I need to own something related to gold in my portfolio, and GG is the best stock in the sector.
Since I've known they take out gold from the ground with a cost of just $60 an ounce I know the stock is supposed to rise (I'm a medium term bull on bullion too, I believe it will go to an all time high above $800 an ounce in this bull cycle)
It's just a matter of time before GG decisively breaks $16 and then it will rise fast to $18.69, the estimated technical target of the breakout.
I have nothing more to say than what the chart below already says:
hmm.. im relatively new to TA, but aren't we seeing a nice ascending triangle here?.. just bouncing of the Support now and tomorrow or the day after we will see a break out on the third test of resistance?
to me this picture doesn't look so good....
as I said I'm relatively new to TA so I would appreciate your comments on the following picture:
(http://www.wistudat.net/stock/gg2.png)
http://www.wistudat.net/stock/gg2.png
Thanks for your posts nikao, I see you're studying technical analysis. I'm a student of the subject too.
Technical analysis is more of an art than science and two different people will probably see different things on the same chart.
In the case of GG I prefer to look at the bigger picture. I see the stock has relative strength in it's sector and has just breakout a resistance level, which is now support ($15.77).
As long as the stock closes above that level ($15.77) one should believe the breakout will extend the rise at least until the technical target of the breakout is reached around $18.69.
Good luck for your learning process, you should try Metastock, a powerful TA software I use for many years.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 14, 2005, 07:18:28 AM
Thanks for your posts nikao, I see you're studying technical analysis. I'm a student of the subject too.
Technical analysis is more of an art than science and two different people will probably see different things on the same chart.
In the case of GG I prefer to look at the bigger picture. I see the stock has relative strength in it's sector and has just breakout a resistance level, which is now support ($15.77).
As long as the stock closes above that level ($15.77) one should believe the breakout will extend the rise at least until the technical target of the breakout is reached around $18.69.
Good luck for your learning process, you should try Metastock, a powerful TA software I use for many years.
thanks for your comments. Im indeed studying TA (am reading the Master Swing Trader right now). The thing you mention that 2 people can see 2 things in a chart is exactly the thing im finding hard to master; what picture is the right to see in a chart?!
I'm now following some stocks to see if I get the pictures right.
As for MetaStock, great tip.. but i'm afraid 500$ is a little to much for me now. Im only investing for 2 months now and with a (very) small amount of money.
As for this chart, i did indeed see the resistance wich is now support, but based on my picture I fear a sideways movement for the near future.. But of course I hope you are right (for all the people who are in this stock with you ;) )
GG said it will release results on August the 15th: Goldcorp to Release Second Quarter Results August 15th (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B6B0FECEA%2D54AB%2D4999%2D96B0%2DA5C04CD58F41%7D)
The stock came down over the past two sessions, but it held support at $15.16. The Gold price did rebound a bit from a dollar induced short term fall.
I guess GG's uptrend will resume after this consolidation phase, technicals and fundamentals back this stock.
It wasn't easy, but GG held the $15.16 support on close, after a down open. I'll keep the stock.
GG takes gold out of the ground at $60 an ounce, it just won't go down ! Technically speaking, yesterday we've had a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern with higher volume, so the short term trend was reversed from bearish to bullish.
I can't wait to see GG decisively break the $16 area (strange expression, yes, I can wait), I believe it's not a matter of will, it is a matter of when.
The company will release the second quarter results on August 15th, maybe then ...
*DJ JP Morgan Cuts Goldcorp To Underweight From Neutral >GG
07/20/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-20-05 0633ET
Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
This Downgrade By JP Morgan is ridiculous. I wonder what kind of motives these brokers have to actually rate GG a sell with their fundamentals and this beautiful technical picture. ANy thought's on what these analysts are up to Mr. Randolph? I would say some shady shenanigans going on behind the scenes like massive buying and accumulation by the same swine that downgraded GG
Hi Armoredsaint,
I am not holding GG so I am not familiar with the company specifics. But I am heavily exposed in gold (GSS and RANGE).
Many of the Gold analysts are short term bearish and long term bullish on gold. This might be the reason for J.P. Morgans downgrade.
I think J.P. Morgan are out of sync with the gold market. It is correct that the gold price has been falling but there seems to be good support at 420 and I would expect a reversal from here. David has defaulted on his technical analysis on the gold market but I am sure he will deliver with a little encouragement.
David pleeeeeze :-*
Just to elaborate on the connection between the gold price and the gold stocks:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2599)
I think it is clear that GG tends to exaggerate the movement of gold to the upside and downside even though it has broken away from the gold during the last two months. That is probably due to GG's fundamentals or what David calls strength!
Now if you expect gold to go up with 5% it would be a fair assumption that GG (or GSS and RANGE) would go up with 15% to 20%. ;D
Mike
Thanks for your analysis Michael. It's still not today I'll make an analysis on the Gold price, but I'll make it.
I won't even consider that downgrade from JP Morgan, if they were neutral on GG they were wrong and they decided to be even more wrong by downgrading the stock.
Gold price is up a bit today, on dollar weakness and GG is just marking time before decisively breaking the $16 barrier. I'm a long term bull in gold and gold stocks.
Mr. Randolph
What are the indicators for GG as it keeps bumping up against resistance at 16? Is it bullish to keep bouncing around here or bearish? Is there a timeline where a decision has to be made for this to break hard one way or another or could it keep meandering here indefinitely? Thanks
Thanks for your question armoredsaint.
QuoteMr. Randolph
What are the indicators for GG as it keeps bumping up against resistance at 16? Is it bullish to keep bouncing around here or bearish? Is there a timeline where a decision has to be made for this to break hard one way or another or could it keep meandering here indefinitely? Thanks
We only know this after it happened, but
GG was a bit overbought over the short term and needed a pullback to regain traction. The stock came down to support at $15.16 without breaking it on close and now is attacking the resistance zone again around $16.
This is bullish behavior. Gold is up today. This yuan revaluation is bearish for the US dollar and bullish for bullion. If gold reaches $450 in the short term (as I believe it will),
GG will be trading at the technical target of the breakout, around $18.69, there's little doubt in my mind about this outcome.
Technicals (look at the long term relative strength of
GG compared to other gold stocks) and fundamentals are in tandem pointing to higher prices on
GG.
GG is the strongest and there isn't much more to it. I don't know if this advance phase is the real deal (doesn't look like because volume is a bit on the weak side) but more important than volume analysis is to respect your dear old friend trend. And the trend is bullish on GG.
A decisive breakout of the $16 level gives me $18.69 over the medium term.
Enough reasons to keep holding GG.
Profit taking on low volume day on GG.
Nothing yet on GG, big fight with the $16 resistance level. I hope it breaks higher. I've read somewhere these guys are sitting in $1B in cash to fund acquisitions, so expect some news on that arena in the future.
Technically the stock has been a bit hard to understand, but I have a simple trading plan so I might as well just follow it and don't think too much on the fundamental side.
The plan is:
1) Sell with a small loss if GG is set to close below the $15.16 support level
2) Sell with a big profit at the technical target of a potential breakout of the $16 area, which is $18.69.
GG is still trading on a tight range, I'll keep respecting the plan designed on yesterday's analysis.
I've added the possibility of an ascending trendline, we need a third touch to validate it. Today that line will be at $15.51.
Hello Mr. Randolph
How long can this action go on before we get a hard break one way or another? Is the extremely low volume bearish or bullish? Earnings are released on 8/15 and that will also have a huge effect on the final direction
I don't know how long it will take for GG to decide itself, I'm pleased with the fact of having a good probability, on technicals and fundamentals, that the breakout will be higher.
But of course, GG isn't a fast moving stock ...
Volume is on the low side on this consolidation phase, but this doesn't mean much, anytime we may get a white marubozu with volume above average definitely crossing the $16 resistance level.
Looks like today is the breakout we have been waiting for? 16.26(new %2 wk high) on decent volume
Quote from: armoredsaint on July 29, 2005, 04:37:54 PM
Looks like today is the breakout we have been waiting for? 16.26(new %2 wk high) on decent volume
I believe so armoredsaint !
The close on Friday was a new 52 week high and a confirmation (considering volume) that
GG is breaking out of the $16 level and the target of that breakout comes only at $18.69, a new all time high for
GG.
Not terribly exciting but a safe play.
Thanks again Mr. Randolph
What are the ramifications of a hard break above 18.69 with volume? Would that be blue sky potential and maybe 30 or more in a few months as a possibility
Quote from: armoredsaint on August 01, 2005, 12:38:44 PM
Thanks again Mr. Randolph
What are the ramifications of a hard break above 18.69 with volume? Would that be blue sky potential and maybe 30 or more in a few months as a possibility
Yes, that's a possibility. Gold is in a long term bull market and
GG is one of the best positioned companies to benefit from the bullion rise.
Yesterday we've had somekind of a doji candlestick which shows indecision by traders. Indecision with low volume. But price closed at another 52 week high, and probably that's the most important development.
I'm holding
GG for the medium term, it's not a fast moving stock, but that's ok for the objectives set for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (50% average return per year - of course, the more, the better).
We've had these news on Goldcorp: Goldcorp Enters into US$500 Million Credit Facility to Finance Acquisitions (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=365787&guid=%7BE5CC9415%2DAA40%2D498B%2D860F%2DB9E49BDC7D62%7D&symb=)
The company really believes the gold long term bull market is here to stay. I guess they're right. My eyes shine everytime I read this:
«Goldcorp is the world's lowest cost and fastest growing million ounce gold producer. Gold production in 2005 is expected to exceed 1.1 million ounces at a cash cost of less than US$60 per ounce. By 2007, gold production is projected to increase by 40% to over 1.6 million ounces. Goldcorp has a strong balance sheet and no hedging.»
Fundamentals and technicals are working in tandem on GG. Another new 52 week high yesterday.
Yeah, great shot from GG as the gold price rose, as expected. I'm looking to take profits at the technical target of the breakout, at $18.69. Well, it is still a bit far away from this, but GG will get there, almost for sure don't you think?
Plan the trade, trade the plan.
No reason to sell GG here, though the candlestick is somewhat bearish. I will sell only at the technical target of the breakout, around $18.69.
Will take profits only at the technical target of the breakout, $18.69. I believe it's just a matter of time.
GG is coming down because of weakness in the dollar, but the gold price, as of now, hasn't been affected.
GG has a lot of support underneath current prices and the uptrend will probably continue. I'll continue holding the stock.
I know the market isn't made with a ruler and a square, but sometimes it sure looks like it. Just look at the kiss on support GG did, and the subsequent recovery rally.
Off course I'll continue to hold GG, selling just at the $18.69 technical target.
Nice rally on GG, it's a shame I'll sell with just 16.8% profit (that is, if the target at $18.69 is reached), but that was my initial plan and I'll follow it.
GG is a big company, the best in its sector and maybe later I'll come back to it.
Earnings were out on GG:
Goldcorp Reports Ten-Fold Earnings Increase to $98 Million on Gold Sales of 543,000 Ounces for Second Quarter
(http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050815/155865.html?.v=1)
Estimates were for 25 cents a share and they came out 28 cents per diluted share. Q2 revenue was $301.6M.
Let me see, if earnings remain constant for the entire 2005 they will be $1.12 a share. This gives me a P/E Ratio of $18/$1.12 = 16. That's not expensive, not at all, for a company whose earnings grew 1000% from a year ago.
Costs went down: «Total cash costs more than halved to $52 per ounce compared to $116 per ounce in 2004». This company is producing gold at $52 per ounce and selling it at $430 an ounce, that's outstanding !
Another highlight:
«Goldcorp is the world's lowest-cost million-ounce gold producer with safe, profitable and sustainable mining operations throughout the Americas and in Australia. Production in 2005 is expected to exceed 1.1 million ounces at a cash cost of less than $60 per ounce. The company has a strong balance sheet, no outstanding debt and no hedging. Goldcorp expects a 40% increase in annual production to 1.6 million ounces of gold by 2007 due to organic growth, and the company also intends to grow through acquisition.»
1.1 million ounces in 2005 * ($432-$52) = $440,000,000 in profits for the year. Dividing that by the number of shares outstanding we get $440,000,000/336.3 million common shares outstanding = $1.31 is another estimate (perhaps more reliable) than the previous one I've made. With earnings of $1.31 the P/E ratio would be $18/$1.31 = 13.74, which is extremely attractive.
More, the company expects an increase of 40% in ounces produced and sold in 2007 to 1.6 million ounces. If they are able to keep the cost per ounce at $52 and gold bullion averages $500 in 2007 (I'm a long term bull on gold), the company will make ($500-$52)*1.6 million = $716,800,000, which again divided by the number of shares outstanding gives us $2.13 in profit per share in 2007 and a forward P/E ratio of $18/$2.13 = 8.45.
Considering all this I have to change my trading plan and let the profits run on GG. I always said I needed a strong reason to change the initial trading plan, a change in fundamentals. I believe we've had that with this earnings report. I guess GG will go a lot higher than the $18.69 technical target of the breakout. And since I have a 12% profit already on GG, why not respect RULE 13 and let the profits run?
That's what I'll do, continue to hold GG for the foreseeable future.
Mr. Randolph
Any technical comments on todays large selloff on huge volume? Are we still OK technically? I ownder what sparked this large selloff since gold was up nicely on the day.
Also can you comment on yet another downgrade from UBS which ironically occurred right as the CC call started. That leaves only 2 buys and 11 holds and 3 sells now. Thanks again
QuoteMr. Randolph
Any technical comments on todays large selloff on huge volume? Are we still OK technically? I wonder what sparked this large selloff since gold was up nicely on the day.
I wouldn't call a 1.8% drop a large sell off armoredsaint. I believe this was due to profit taking on the news. Yes, we're still OK technically, we'll get to that in just a moment. The fall probably occurred because of something more than 100 years old on Wall Street: «Buy the rumor, sell the news».
QuoteAlso can you comment on yet another downgrade from BUS which ironically occurred right as the CC call started. That leaves only 2 buys and 11 holds and 3 sells now. Thanks again
I haven't seen the arguments behind the downgrade, but it is a bullish thing to have more people bearish than bullish on a stock with a long term uptrend as G. If all of us were bulls, who would be there left to buy?
G rose from $16.44 to $18.60 in anticipation of a better than expected earnings release. The stock left some gaps opened along the way. Now it's coming down to fill those gaps, on people selling the news and taking profits.
I've changed my plan on GG and I will let the profits run as long as they keep growing. So the stock must continue to trend higher. My new plan is to hold the stock as long as it closes above the ascending trendline on the chart, which for tomorrow will stand at $16.41.
Looks like it perfectly closed all gaps and is now primed for a new launch.
Mr. Randolph I am still a newbie when it comes to technical charting and wasa wondering if you can tell me if there was an island top in GG's chart the last week of trading and if yes whats the implications for that type of formation? Thanks again
Quote from: armoredsaint on August 17, 2005, 03:16:13 PM
Looks like it perfectly closed all gaps and is now primed for a new launch.
Mr. Randolph I am still a newbie when it comes to technical charting and was wondering if you can tell me if there was an island top in GG's chart the last week of trading and if yes whats the implications for that type of formation? Thanks again
Yes, the formation might be considered an island top (usually it's called a «reversal island top»), since the stock left two gaps, one on the way up, and another on the way down. The implications are bearish short term and possibly longer term. We still don't know.
The trend is defined by an ascending trendline, and as long as the stock closes above that trendline one must consider the bullish trend is still pretty much in place. The top might be just a short term one. GG may come down to test support again and then it shoot to new highs.
I believe in this scenario, but although I made those fundamental considerations doesn't mean I won't sell if the trend suddenly changes: the market always knows better.
It's a strange thing, because I'm bullish on gold and bullish on the USD. I don't think this inverse relationship between gold and the dollar will last much longer ... gold will go up on its own fundamentals, not because of currency arbitrage.
Anyway, support for GG will stand tomorrow at $16.50, one thing is 90% sure, I won't lose money on this trade !
After reading more on this island reversal pattern I am taken by its relatively rare occurence and how it usually affects stocks with horrible news after a gap higher on anticipation of great news. How can a stock with the fundamentals of GG and great earnings be in this terrible situation? I am beginning to believe that the large short funds in this are playing games and shenanigans
Did you notice one slight but very important market behavior today? The dollar was up and gold bullion was up too !
That's what I've been saying, gold will rise on its own fundamentals, not because of currency arbitrage. It's starting. Let many participants notice this macro economic change and watch gold related stocks fly through the roof.
I'm a long term bull and holder of GG, as long as the market agrees with my theory, which is the same as saying as long as the stock maintains its long term ascending trend.
Quote from: David Randolph on August 17, 2005, 07:11:29 PM
Yes, the formation might be considered an island top (usually it's called a «reversal island top»), since the stock left two gaps, one on the way up, and another on the way down. The implications are bearish short term and possibly longer term. We still don't know.
The morning of October 23, 2003, when Applied Materials (AMAT) put in a Bearish Island Reversal from a Double Top, I remember reading on an internet board that it
had to be horribly bearish.
Here's how it played out:
Nice example Melf Elf, in that case the bearish reversal island was followed by a bullish reversal island. The white candle on the break was a warning that the pattern indication wasn't very reliable. It's great you now can post Metastock charts, please keep them coming :D
Considering GG, I've noticed today that those two red candles after results were induced by downgrades from analysts, from buy to hold. There are downgrades and downgrades, and these two seem silly to me and should not be followed.
Nice white candle today on GG ... it would be bullish if the stock closes Monday above $17.63, that would invalidate the bearish reversal island we've been talking about. It would also be bullish if GG is able to break to new highs without having touched support ... it's bullish if bulls can't buy at support levels, it means demand is strong.
Who downgraded GG in last few days?
I checked Yahoo. The latest is from JP Morgan on July 20 from Neutral to Underweight.
Since its downgrade, the share price gained 20%.
Many times, the market just wants to scare you so you will not dare to buy it.
After all weak hands cleared, they will the stock higher and higher.
I have been extensively & professionally involved in technical analysis for nearly 40 years & my work tells me that 2 stronger candidates in the Gold sector are RGLD & MDG ! Check out their charts & technicals .Superior to GG!
Buddyboy
Buddyboy
Meridian is a mess with all kinds of troubles with Esquel and the local populace demanding they leave. GG has outperformed both of these stocks over the past 2 years
Mr. Randolph
Was today a bullish island bottom or was it negated by the down close in the afternoon? What is your take on the chart after today? Thanks again
This chart shows a comparison of the gold price to the HUI Gold Bugs index so you can see when gold stocks outperform gold itself. The best time to own gold is when it break out of the trend and is above the moving average as shown here.
(http://xs43.xs.to/pics/05341/goldcompare.jpg)
also gold broke out but fell back so need to be watched
(http://xs43.xs.to/pics/05341/2108goldeod.jpg)
There are many gold stocks that look good but just not at the moment as you want to buy when gold is moving. Also commercial traders are now short way too many contracts as they usually make accurate calls so may be good to wait a and see how their position changes.
Nice chart and analysis on gold and gold stocks metro, thank you :)
Quote from: armoredsaint on August 22, 2005, 04:06:29 PM
Mr. Randolph
Was today a bullish island bottom or was it negated by the down close in the afternoon? What is your take on the chart after today? Thanks again
Hello Mr. Armoredsaint :)
No, today it was no bullish reversal island, since at the close there wasn't any gap up. The candlestick pattern we're dealing on GG is a meating lines pattern, a bullish continuation pattern. I'll post something about this pattern next.
My plan is to hold GG for as long as it shows an uptrend, which is defined by closing above the ascending trendline which today will stand at $16.73. Since I've bought the stock at $16, this plan almost makes sure that I won't lose money on this GG trade and it works as a trailing stop, letting the profits run and protecting them at the same time.
We got a very low volume day on GG, with just a tiny range. Somedays are just like this, there's nothing new, no «new information» to consider.
So I'll continue to respect my trading plan and continue to hold GG.
Quote from: metro on August 22, 2005, 05:23:08 PM
The best time to own gold is when it break out of the trend and is above the moving average as shown here.
Interesting chart, Metro. Applause. Several of the gold/silver stocks broke trendline support in the last couple of days. Nice call on CTTY yesterday, too. I have to wait an hour to give you another applause.
;D
what's up with this stock. this the third day it has shot up only to come back dwn by the end of the day. the volume momo seems to have chilled a little and it is having a tough time
around the 17.60'. is is this just a pause or do you think the market is turning for gg for the moment. i am ready to bail as there seems to be other more profitible opportunies begging.
love to here anyones opinion.
thanks.
maxi
I'm selling GG today because of the Global Market Bearish Call (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2411.msg17584#msg17584) I've made this morning.
Plans are important, but having the flexibility to react when the environment changes is even more important.
Mr. Randolph
I am still holding GG and was wondering what you think of todays huge volume breakout to all time highs? Do you think this could be a monster move based on the technicals? Thanks