3SOF

Sinovac Biotech Ltd. is committed to becoming a world leader in the research and development, manufacture and commercialization of vaccines for endemic and pandemic viruses such as hepatitis and influenza, and for fast emerging viruses such as SARS and Avian Flu Influenza (a.k.a. "bird flu"). The Company's objective is to provide Chinese children with the best vaccines in the world, and let children in the world use vaccines made in China.

From News Article: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050620/205503.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050620/205503.html?.v=1)

China Govt.
In order to improve the control and prevention of infectious diseases, and to protect human and public health the federal government decided major changes were required. To this end, the government announced a change to its "Regulations on Vaccine Distribution and Prophylactic Immunization" on March 24th 2005. This caused the provincial CDC's to modify their respective regulations for vaccine distribution, and the new regulations went into effect on June 1, 2005.

 This one has me confused.  would appreciate input.  ready to dump it

 Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. (AMEX:SVA) has some important news this morning.
I like SVA as a "HOLD" through 2008.
Please see my reasoning under "randstory" on the SVA message board.
All the best,
                                  -rand

 Sinovac Biotech, ltd (AMEX:SVA) is demonstrating strength on it third approved vaccine-Anflu- which received approval for manufacturing today. My target is $10.00 by July, 2008.

AMX Pharma (AMEX:AXJ) is a turnaround story. The company has streamlined its management, and is taking the hospital market supply market in generic drugs by storm.
Up from $1.25 in the past week, to $1.80.

China Energy Savings Technology (NASDAQ:CESV)  is completely misunderstood-Yahoo!Finance has the wrong fundamentals for it. It's a
energy solutions company, and reminds me of my favorite AE company- DESC- when I initiated in DESC last September @$2.12.

Happy to discuss any of the above, if there is interest.
All the best,
                          -rand

Randstory,
Great posts and welcome. I think you and I were typing about AXJ at the same time. I sent David a note about it, then saw your post. My only apprehension is that I have always been suspicious of Las Vegas companies, maybe it's foolish on my part but I've seen them open and close over-night. AXJ is interesting, as are your others (I would buy DESC on a pullback), but is there any reason why AXJ cannot be more specific on a earnings release date? I'm sure you can understand my nervousness.
Applaud for your strong posts.

 Hi, Tommy-

First and foremost- let me say your daughter looks lovely.
My children are grown, and  I have five grandchildren.

Secondly, thank you for your courteous reply to my post on  Sinovac Biotech, Ltd., AMX Pharma, and China Energy Savings Technology (SVA,AXJ, CESV)

1) AXM Pharma (AXJ)
I think that the train has left the station, current isn't the price to buy into AXJ, because it will enter resistance in the $2.75 range:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=AXJ,uu[h,a]daclyiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G

2) Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. (SVA)
I know this company fairly well; it's attractive as a L-T Hold. If your horizon extends beyond Q3 '05, then it might be a hold and keep.
I think the end of 3Q and this current price of $2.80 would make SVA a definite "BUY".

3) China Energy Savings Technology, (CESV)
I am adding here, @$8.90. The stock is a "buy" on fundamentals, not technicals. The Yahoo! information on CESV is substantially incorrect.

I've asked a corresondent in Beijing to give me the benefit of his insights into CESV, and several other persons whom I respect to look over the company's finances.
I've done my own DD, but it never hurts to research a stock redundantly.
  Right now, I anticipate adding to CESV tomorrow, with a target of $13.00-$15.00  in November-Dec. of this year....
My capital source will be cash from an 8% reduction in DESC today, on a GTC @ $7.00 shortly after the opening today, Thursday, 7/28/05. My cost basis was $2.12, from an initiial buy in DESC in Sept. '04. I have capital for a 25% increase in my CESV position- initiated last week. Tomorrow will be the fourth add to CESV position.
I anticipate the possibility (not a certainty, to be sure!) of using cap from a further 8% planned reduction in DESC @$8.00  in early August- after its August 4th Conference Call- to add again to CESV in mid-August if weakness persists, but the fundamental story of CESV is still persuasive....

All the best, tommy.
Joy and prosperty to your daughter,
                                                               -rand
Shoul

All the best,
                          -rand

Have a look to a biotech company named SINOVAC.

There is a great hype coming I think and SVA has an approved vaccine for bird flu.

>Sinovac Biotech Ltd. Receives Flu Vaccine Production License from Chinese FDA<



(http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=sva&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=2&type=4&size=1&state=8&sid=1584408&style=330&time=7&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=864&mocktick=1)

Today's action was very bullish with volume very steady and calculated.  I entered a position at $3.11 after your post and doing a little DD.  I expect todays volume of 1.1MM to be surpassed over the next couple days.

Ameritrade's Stock Analyzer program showed up in a pre-defined filter with a 11:1 Bull/Bear report.  Hoping for some follow through.

I'm kicking myself for selling NWD at $1.30 after buying at $.98.  China related stocks are getting the investment dollars.

Hoping for some follow through on this one.  However, I could use some TA on SVA after Friday's close, if there are any market signals.

Good Find,
poorman1

Another company that is working on an Avian Flu vaccine is Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) and its stock soared 30% (pre-market it was up to 55%) on positive results of their experimental vaccine.

Take the 2y-chart and have a look for the heavy outbreak from the longterm downtrend.

This happens under the 3rd highest volume SVA was ever traded.  :o

Make your own thoughts to this.......

Chart is indeed very bullish but heavy insider sellings worried me though.

Please don´t forget not the reality which tells you NVAX is hyping on yesterdays news about some good results in a preclinical phase with mice and rats, not with humans.

SVA has approved vaccine for bird flu on which they earn real money. By the way they have the only vaccine for HEP-A for children from one to 15 years too.

What do you think is the better one?

Please tell me what is emotional what I have done?

We are here in the SVA-thread I think.

I´ve taken in a nice chart and some infos about the company for people who are interested in it.

You come in here, bashing on SVA and try to take some smalltalk about the better invest in NVAX. Then you tell me I´m emotional...

Sorry man but you have an improper behaviour. Go to the NVAX thread and take your action there...

Have a nice weekend..

I'm not sure who your post is directed to, but all I was doing was making a comparison between these two stocks, to show the good potenial that SVA has to breakout, just like a similar case, NVAX, did a couple of days ago. No need to get all defensive/aggressive. ???

hello irod,

my last posting has nothing to do with something coming from you or the other board members who are telling their opinion about this stock pick.

This was only for one member (sorry, his name will not be called) who came in and made a bad one man show.
You can´t find his postings in this thread because he´s deleting them he said.

nice weekend and best for your invest ;)

Sinovac Biotech, Ltd (SVA), specializes in the research, development, commercialization, and sale of human vaccines for infectious illnesses, such as Hepatitis A and Hepatitis B, influenza, and SARS in China and internationally. The company has three vaccines that have completed three phases of clinical trials: Hepatitis A, Hepatitis A&B combined, and influenza (flu).

We've had this important news a few days ago: Sinovac Biotech Ltd. Receives Flu Vaccine Production License from Chinese FDA (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050727/275400.html?.v=1)

The market cap is just about $140M.

We have a company already producing 2 vaccines for the Chinese market and with another powerful one approved. I see plenty of room for speculation here. I can say SVA is exactly the kind of stock that I want now.

Looking at the long term chart we find that SVA has recently broken a long term descending trendline, so the market is recognizing the value of this company:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4512;image)

On a shorter term view, we see two powerful white candles with outstanding volume:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4513;image)

You know I'm bearish on the general market, but there will always be 3 Stocks on Fire  8)

I'm buying SVA at today's open, I don't mind the gap, 6.66% of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, as usual.

(This recommendation was made by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire, and he will update this analysis everyday after the close until he sells the stock. 3 Stocks on Fire is a Community of stock traders and investors. Our 3067 members exchange trading ideas and strategies on our message boards everyday. We welcome you as a new member of the 3 Stocks on Fire Community, please take 10 seconds to register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register) and receive our free newsletter)

David,
I have one question for my ever ongoing learning process....

SVA has all the drugs for the bird flu problem... NVAX is moving on the hype that they completed pre-clinical trial for a delivery mechanism.

As you can see SVA is 3.00/share and NVAX is 1.40/share, why it is better to pick SVA than NVAX as more money can be made on share with smaller stock price...
The %age gain on NVAX by movement of some cents will be higher than SVA...

I fully understand SVA is better solid company with effective drugs but according to the price movement upwards why do we pick SVA  as the sector is same for both of them. Stocks will rise due to involvement in the sector..

It'lll be interesting to know the thoughts of everyone about their take on this scenario...

THIS APPLIES FOR (BCON AND CPST) scenario.  (NAUC AND OBDP) scenario. (AMD and INTC) scenario in past. ..

It'll be really helpful to understand risk/reward strategy about putting money into one of the stocks, when different alternatives are abound in one sector and all of us can make money by compunding on one stock to other stock.

Thanks,
Dhiraj

Quote from: dhiraj19 on August 29, 2005, 09:59:03 AM
David,
I have one question for my ever ongoing learning process....

SVA has all the drugs for the bird flu problem... NVAX is moving on the hype that they completed pre-clinical trial for a delivery mechanism.

As you can see SVA is 3.00/share and NVAX is 1.40/share, why it is better to pick SVA than NVAX as more money can be made on share with smaller stock price...
The %age gain on NVAX by movement of some cents will be higher than SVA...

I fully understand SVA is better solid company with effective drugs but according to the price movement upwards why do we pick SVA  as the sector is same for both of them. Stocks will rise due to involvement in the sector..

It'lll be interesting to know the thoughts of everyone about their take on this scenario...

THIS APPLIES FOR (BCON AND CPST) scenario.  (NAUC AND OBDP) scenario. (AMD and INTC) scenario in past. ..

It'll be really helpful to understand risk/reward strategy about putting money into one of the stocks, when different alternatives are abound in one sector and all of us can make money by compunding on one stock to other stock.

Thanks,
Dhiraj

Hello Dhiraj !

That NVAX stock didn't show up on my filters, don't know why, since the chart is very appealing.

Now, the price of a stock tells you nothing about it's potential. The price in itself doesn't tell you how much is the company worth and that's the first thing one should know before investing.

You should compare market caps, not stock prices, in the first place. A stock priced at $1 might be representing a company worth a lot more than a stock priced at $10. It depends on the number of shares outstanding. Stock Price*#shares outstanding = Market Cap.

A stock priced at $10 can rise to $100, then split 1/10, rise again to 100, then split again and keep on rising ...

Anyway, NVAX would have been much better for today than SVA  ::)   (the market cap on NVAX is in fact lower than SVA).

Thats why I like this web portal.. I wont be calling 3stocksonfire.org a website. Its webportal where investors discuss the strategies and benefit each other with the stock picks....

David,
Thanks for the tip.. I'll keep it in my mind from next pick onwards. ( Price and outstanding shares)

Dhiraj

Excellent choice!!!
May be good long term hold
Production of approved vaccines begin soon
Decent progress on developing SARS vaccine
Beginning avarian flu research,priceless if develops vaccine for future epidemic
Low production costs
Immune to recession
;D ;D ;D

I see David talking about and comparing market caps all the time. Ive only dug into chart analysis since my learning process began about 2 months ago. Can someone tell me the relavency of Market caps and how to analyze it ???

Any help would be great,

thanks all,
Fousc

School starting again...

you ask yourself what has this to do with SINOVAC? 

Now the facts to this:
when school is starting again millions of children and young people - students too - must be vaccined for HEP-A.
That´s an order by law. SVA will be the greatest profiteur from this school vaccine regulation.
SVA has made a delivery contract with the chinese gouvernment about the vaccines they need to do this.

And don´t forget: SVA is a solid invest which will generate lots of money in the next time but an outbreak of avian flu in china or their neighbours and SVA is skyrocketing.


all the best for your invest

Quote from: fousc on August 30, 2005, 04:10:45 AM
I see David talking about and comparing market caps all the time. Ive only dug into chart analysis since my learning process began about 2 months ago. Can someone tell me the relevancy of Market caps and how to analyze it ???

Any help would be great,

thanks all,
Fousc

Thanks for your question and interest Fousc  :)

Market Cap is the market value of a company. When you buy stocks you're buying a tiny part of a company, and that company's total market value is given by the market cap. Most investors think of the market cap to find out if the stock is cheap or expensive, given its financials.

I look to market cap usually to see the potential of a stock. You see, a 10% advance in GE's shares is worth $35.6B. A 10% advance, in, say SVA is worth just $13.4M, that is 2,656 times less. For GE to make a 10% move in needs to create value of $35.6B. For SVA to make the same 10% move in its shares it needs to create value of $13.4M. You can imagine it is a lot easier for SVA's stock to move 10% than it is with GE.

If the company is already very big, one shouldn't expect many bags (hundreds of percentage points) out of its stock price. If the company is very small, a micro cap stock, it can rise 10, 20 or 30 fold or more as the company grows to maturity. Of course, there's the reverse of this, small cap stocks can be more risky, the business can fail, and the stock tank 100% and go bankrupt. That's harder to happen with large caps, but sometimes it happens too ...

So, small caps with revenues and earnings growing fast can see their share price rise a lot. Large caps can rise 50%, 100%, but it is almost impossible for GE to rise 10 fold now, it would own the world or something  ;D

I hope this was of any help, there are a lot more things to consider, but this is the essential. Well, not the essential, the essential are the charts, technical analysis is your best friend, for as long as you have the discipline to stay with the trend you will do allright  ;)

Now, looking at SVA, I'm glad that you guys agree with me, this company has strong fundamentals and the uptrend should continue.

It's not enough for the fundamentals to be good and improving, the market action must agree with that assessment. So, and since I would like SVA to be a core holding, a long term holding of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, I have attached a simple indicator based on moving averages that has been supporting SVA on declines and I will use it for hold or sell decisions of SVA stock.

That indicator is represented by the red line on the chart below and it is called TEMA:

«TEMA is a unique smoothing indicator developed by Patrick Mulloy.  It was originally introduced in the January 1994 issue of  Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine.
As Mr. Mulloy explains in the article:
"Moving averages have a detrimental lag time that increases as the moving average length increases. The solution is a modified version of exponential smoothing with less lag time."
TEMA is an acronym that stands for Triple Exponential Moving Average.  However, the name of this smoothing technique is a bit misleading in that it is not simply a moving average of a moving average of a moving average.  It is a unique composite of a single exponential moving average, a double exponential moving average, and a triple exponential moving average that provides less lag than either of the three components individually.»

Since SVA closed above TEMA I will continue holding the stock (though it is possible it comes down to close the $3.25-$3.30 gap)

Quote from: fousc on August 30, 2005, 04:10:45 AM
I see David talking about and comparing market caps all the time. Ive only dug into chart analysis since my learning process began about 2 months ago. Can someone tell me the relavency of Market caps and how to analyze it ???

Any help would be great,

thanks all,
Fousc

Hi fousc,

Hope this will help some
Market cap is the most important number in Fundamental Analysis. It answers the question - "How much would the company cost if one would buy all its shares at current price?"

From that all other key ratios like P/E, P/S etc. are determined in order to evaluate if shares are cheap or expensive.

Here´s a link for more info:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/031703.asp

Happy studies

Thanks for the info on Market caps Dave and nextmove. Definatly have a tighter grip on the concept of it.

So with that in mind Peerless Systems Corp(PRLS) looks like it has much potential for gain. With a market Cap of Just 86 million, P/E 74.86, and EPS 0.07. And revenues up a u know what load. The earning were just released last week. Take a look. As well the chart broke out of a symetrical triangle on the news of the financials as well being in a strong uptrend.

About Peerless Systems Corporation

Founded in 1982, Peerless Systems Corporation is a provider of imaging and networking technologies and components to the digital document markets, which include manufacturers of color, monochrome and multifunction office products and digital appliances. In order to process digital text and graphics, digital document products rely on a core set of imaging software and supporting electronics, collectively known as an imaging controller. Peerless' broad line of scalable software and silicon offerings enables its customers to shorten their time-to-market and reduce costs by offering unique solutions for multiple products. Peerless' customer base includes companies such as Canon, IBM, Konica Minolta, Kyocera Mita, Lenovo, OkiData, Ricoh, RISO, Seiko Epson and Xerox. Peerless also maintains strategic partnerships with Adobe and Novell. For more information, visit Peerless' web site at www.peerless.com.

Peerless Systems Announces Second Quarter Results for Fiscal Year 2006
Selected Second Quarter and Recent Highlights: * Second quarter revenue increases 53% to $9.7 million versus same quarter last year * Net income of $1.1 million represents 166% sequential increase versus first quarter, and $2.6 million positive swing from second quarter last year * Cash and investments increase to $10.2 million
8/25/2005 4:06:17 PM

   
EL SEGUNDO, Calif., Aug 25, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Peerless Systems Corporation (PRLS), a provider of imaging and networking controllers to the digital document market, today reported financial results for its fiscal 2006 second quarter ended July 31, 2005.


Company: Peerless Systems Corporation
   
Second Quarter Results

Second quarter revenue increased 53% to $9.7 million from $6.3 million reported in last year's second quarter. Revenue advanced 34% sequentially versus the $7.2 million reported in this year's first quarter. Product licensing revenue increased to $5.6 million from $4.9 million in the second quarter last year and $2.9 million in the first quarter this year. Engineering services and maintenance revenue was $2.8 million versus $0.6 million reported in last year's second quarter and $3.2 million reported in the most recent quarter. The year-over-year increase in engineering services revenue is attributable to $2.0 million for quarterly services performed under the previously discussed development project the Company is performing for Kyocera-Mita under a binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Peerless also received the full $0.25 million in quarterly performance incentives addressed in the MOU. Revenue from hardware, which includes the Company's application specific integrated circuits (ASICs) and the Everest channel product, increased to $1.3 million from $0.8 million in the second quarter last year and $1.1 million in this year's first quarter.

Peerless signed three second quarter license agreements collectively valued at $3.6 million, all of which were recognized as revenue during the second quarter. Licensing backlog at July 31, 2005, was $1.2 million, which will be recognized over the next four quarters. Contract backlog for engineering services was $0.4 million, versus $0.3 million at the end of the first quarter. The current contract backlog does not include the amounts expected under the Kyocera-Mita MOU.

Gross margins in the second quarter were 48.9% compared with 62.2% for last year's second quarter and 54.3% in this year's first quarter. Research and development expenses declined to $1.3 million, or 13.5% of revenue, versus $3.0 million, or 48.0% of revenue, in the comparable period last year when Peerless was completing its high performance color development and conducting product testing on its Everest channel product. R&D expenses in the most recent quarter were $1.3 million, or 17.5% of revenue. The year-over-year declines in gross margin and R&D expenses are primarily attributable to the transition of in-house engineering efforts to customer development efforts.

Sales and marketing expenses decreased to $0.8 million, or 8.7% of revenue, compared with $1.0 million, or 16.4% of revenue, in the second quarter last year, and $0.9 million, or 13.1% of revenue, in the previous quarter. General and administrative expenses were $1.5 million, or 15.1% of revenue, versus $1.3 million, or 21.1% of revenue, in the comparable year-ago period and $1.3 million, or 17.7% of revenue, in the first quarter.

Second quarter net income increased to $1.1 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, versus a net loss of $1.5 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, in the second quarter last year and net income of $0.4 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, in the previous quarter.

Days sales outstanding for receivables and unbilled at July 31, 2005, were 32 versus 53 at the end of the first quarter and 32 at January 31, 2005. Cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter were $10.2 million, or $0.62 per share.

"Our strong second quarter performance is primarily attributable to a team of employees that has worked tirelessly to bring a new generation of affordable, high-performance printing technologies to manufacturers of advanced office workgroup products," said Howard Nellor, president and chief executive officer. "As a result of our recent successes, we have exceeded our forecasts for top and bottom-line performance and have elevated our projections for full-year revenue and earnings performance.

"Our milestone development program with Kyocera-Mita is ongoing, and we continue to pursue additional opportunities with other OEMs interested in our Sierra high-performance color platform," Nellor said. "We remain focused on consummating a second design win during the current fiscal year and we are encouraged by recent progress we have made in this regard."

Nellor added that the solid footing the Sierra product suite has established in the market is allowing the Company to focus more aggressively on turnkey design opportunities. Consequently, Peerless will discontinue shipments of its Sierra-based Everest channel product at the end of the fiscal year. "Everest was designed as a powerful and cost-effective controller for Konica Minolta's(R) high-profile bizhub(TM) C350(TM) multi-function office product. More importantly, Everest was created to validate our new capabilities in high-performance color. With both objectives accomplished and new versions of the bizhub entering the market, we intend to focus principally on larger, longer-term relationships that should have a greater financial benefit for Peerless and our OEM partners."

Six-Month Results

For the six months ended July 31, 2005, total revenue advanced 72% to $16.9 million from $9.8 million in the comparable period a year ago. Gross margins for the six-month period were 51.2% versus 57.9% in the comparable period last year. Net income increased to $1.5 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, versus a net loss of $5.6 million, or $0.35 per diluted share, in the comparable period last year.

Guidance

Management anticipates third quarter revenue of between $8.5 million and $9.0 million. These results are subject to the receipt of three new license agreements collectively valued at $4.1 million, as well as the $2.0 million quarterly payment from Kyocera-Mita and sales of the Everest controller of between $0.4 million and $0.5 million. Third quarter net income is expected to exceed $0.5 million, assuming the receipt of the revenue assumptions referred to above. A sequential decline in net income is expected to result from the one-quarter delay in anticipated ASIC purchases and lower margins on licensing due to the higher proportion of third party licensing.

Full-year revenue is expected to exceed $34 million, which is on the high end of management's previously forecasted revenue range of between $32 and $36 million. Net income for the fiscal year is expected to exceed $4 million versus previously expected net income of more than $2 million. It is anticipated that cash and investments at year-end will exceed $11 million.

The guidance and other forecasts included above assume that Peerless and Kyocera-Mita will enter into definitive agreements that have comparable terms to those contained in the binding MOU, or the parties will continue to operate under the binding MOU. Revenue guidance for the full year are subject to the $4.1 million in new licensing in the third quarter and $5.8 million in the fourth quarter and year end cash and investments will depend on the collection of an approximately $2 million annual license agreement by the end of the fourth quarter. 


Here is a short and long term Chart.

Sorry for spamming the SVA board. Just wanted to reply to you david to see if indeed i do understand the market cap.

 Hi, David!

I think SVA is an excellent selection for your portfolio.
I've been an SVA shareholder since the equity was OTC listed as
"SNYBF.OB". I accumulated most of my current position during its retracement into the 2's this past Spring..

It doesn't surprise me at all that SVA is filling the gap left in the $3.20-$3.30 range.
It's semi-annual statement should be out very shortly, and will show that the company got a slow start this year with its "Bilive(R)" sales (the HepA/B vaccine), due to changes in the
Chinese vaccine distribution regulations last Spring.

L-T, the outlook for SVA is excellent. It should pick up in the Fall and Winter, and sales should be in the neigborhood of 10 million USD for 2005.

The IR firm of the company is excellent- hardworking, and not given to the hyperbole
which characterizes many Chinese equities.
My Chinese equity positions are: SVA, JST and a very recent position-HRBN.OB. All of these are modest positions, although SVA- in which I hold XX,000  shares- less so.
What will drive each of these companies' PPS are revenue growth.
My goal for SVA is multi-year growth.

BTW, David- on a completely unrelated topic- I added to DESC again this morning @$6.41.
I may reduce this L-T position in early October, by taking L-T cap. gains on my earliest shares from last Sept., bought @$2.12. This position has grown very strong for me recently.
All the best, David, and thank you for providing such a valuable resource for other investors!
                              -Rand

One more aside- I sold my CESV position on the morning after its earnings misguidance became apparent. No regrets. Added to ENER at $27.41 that morning.
                             -r.

good

thxs

The stock hit one possible buy point today but IMO often better to not buy the first pullback day after a reversal top candle. There is another buy point as shown or the 9-day EMA. Pay attention to vol.

(http://xs44.xs.to/pics/05352/3008sva.jpg)

Thanks for your posts. It's nice to know that randstory has a position in SVA, it reassures the fundamental side of the question  ;)

Now, yesterday was ugly on SVA, but not totally unexpected. A pullback to fill the gap, to meet some ascending support, is allright.

Up or down 7% in one day tells me nothing on SVA. This isn't a momentum play, but an investment, for as long as the market agrees that this is a good investment. Life isn't so long that one can lose time arguing with the market, he always knows better.

So, my process was:

1) Check the chart, does it shows an ascending trend? Yes.
2) Check the fundamentals, do they show potential appreciation? Yes.
3) Buy the stock.
4) Setup a simple trading plan that let's me profit if the stock continues to trend higher, but  guards against the possibility of a change in fundamentals and the trend.

The simple trading plan I've designed is:

Hold SVA as long as it closes above its 121 period TEMA indicator (explained above on this thread)

QuoteHold SVA as long as it closes above its 121 period TEMA indicator (explained above on this thread)

Hi David,

I like your new pick!


After reading your post, I notice that you are going to use the TEMA indicator as a method  to build a mental stop following the SVA closing prise and sell if it goes below it!.
Am  I right?

But what the hell is the  "TEMA" indicator?

I am compel to admit, I never heard of that indicator before!
So my ears are both wide open to discover the one who dares escaping from my radar screen for so long!

The most popular 'MA" style indicators that I know are the firsts three on this list:

SMA or MA: Simple Moving Average 
EMA: Exponential Moving Average
WMA: Weighted Moving Average
TEMA:    ????????? Exponential Moving Average----->?

So I would be more than grateful to you, if you could take a bit of your time and explain me what TEMA stand for!

Thanks



Correction!!!!

David,
I definitely need glasses, It is just now I came across your TEMA explanation on the above threads.
It is crystal clear now!
Thanks!.

QuoteThat indicator is represented by the red line on the chart below and it is called TEMA:

«TEMA is a unique smoothing indicator developed by Patrick Mulloy.  It was originally introduced in the January 1994 issue of  Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine.
As Mr. Mulloy explains in the article:
"Moving averages have a detrimental lag time that increases as the moving average length increases. The solution is a modified version of exponential smoothing with less lag time."
TEMA is an acronym that stands for Triple Exponential Moving Average.  However, the name of this smoothing technique is a bit misleading in that it is not simply a moving average of a moving average of a moving average.  It is a unique composite of a single exponential moving average, a double exponential moving average, and a triple exponential moving average that provides less lag than either of the three components individually.»

Since SVA closed above TEMA I will continue holding the stock (though it is possible it comes down to close the $3.25-$3.30 gap)

QuoteAfter reading your post, I notice that you are going to use the TEMA indicator as a method  to build a mental stop following the SVA closing prise and sell if it goes below it!.
Am  I right?

Yes, you're right, I'm glad you found the explanation on the TEMA indicator  :)

We've had a doji on SVA, and that may mean the end of the pullback for these shares. The uptrend is still in place, the stock is trading above the 121 period tema so I will continue to hold the stock.

I like the fundamentals of Sinovac but have waited a bit to commit money.

I can however see that the stock is falling under decreasing volume so I think it is time to go in. I will therefore try to buy today.

Hi Michael,

What does your fundamental is telling you? Are you concerned about the inside selling?

I am in IDBE (a Canadian flu shot company) since $21. There are some discussions on SVA on that board.

I cannot come to an valuation of SVA. IDBE is going to have 75M doses capacity ($10/dose and 60% margin). So I can see IDBE being 750M sales and at least $2B company (i.e. 2x from here).

SVA seems will have 20M doeses capacity, but it's not clear to me how much they will sell it for ($10/dose will be very expensive in China). Assuming $5, we are looking at $100M revenue. Maybe still 2x from here. :-)


-Louis

Hi Louis,

Well try to look at the so-called insider selling. They have repeatedly filled their intention to sell during the last 12-month but never sold a single share (at least according to Smartmoney).

It seems to me like they are expecting a big increase in the share price (like a lot of us here  :D) and keep filing their intentions so they can sell after the stock has taken off. I might be wrong and I wouldn't be surprised if they sell today (I have had a stream of bad predictions lately  :-\)

I will write about the fundamentals a bit later. (I am busy doing some DD on RITA and BSM)

Mike

plz let us know mike, especially your take on RITA.

Hi Michael,

I see. Indeed on Yahoo there is no actual sales (just planned sales)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=SVA

Maybe I should take a closer look.

I am still in RITA. I missed BSM even though I was following it for the last 3 days. Let us know what your findings are. Thanks in advance.


-Louis

Hi Stocky,

I did a lot of research when BSM took off and one of the things I found was that the equipment they are using is similar to RITA's RF equipment (1500X).

Now 1500X is used under surgery for coagulation and ablation of soft tissue but it seems to me that it might also be used for BSM applications (precision-focused Radiofrequency for raising the temperature in cancerous tissue). I have tried to get a confirmation on this with out luck. I probably have to call the company!

Mike

Hello  :)

Michael, are you a biotech analyst? Or just a fan of the sector?

It seems you get much more interested in biotech and pharma companies than on other sectors companies (exception made to BRVO, which tells something about the value of that trade  :D)

Well, about SVA, this latest short term dip doesn't make any damage to the technical picture. We've had a technical breakout with volume above average and now a retest to the breakout zone with lower volume. Those are positive technical developments.

The ascending trendline for today stands at $2.78 and is rising $0.02 everyday. The stock doesn't need to go there to rebound, it may meet the trendline again higher than we are now.

Buying bullish breakouts is a wise strategy, but many times one suffers this short term pullbacks to the breakout zone. And sometimes, when it's all over, the breakout was false and we need to take a loss. But that's how to do it, trade on probabilities, and there's a high probability for a stock to continue moving higher for the medium term after a bullish breakout.

SVA is to stay on 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

Michael, or anyone else.

Being that you seem to be a big timer in the fundamental area. Do  you have any good reccomendations for books on Fundamental Analysis? And at 21 im likely to be the youngest member of the board. Im looking to learn alot more over the next years, as i already have learned a great deal since being a member of this board over the past few months.
thanks for all your help.

Keep up the good work guys! ;D

im also a holder of SVA bought at 3.65 hoping to see it make another rally.

-fousc

Great discussions were made in the last days about SVA and if this company is a bird flu shot or even not.
The vaccine market is enormous and the time to take a stockpick here can´t be better because the next months are the so called flu season.
I have a link for you if you´re interested in some fundamentals about SVA. It´s the 20-F/A from 9/1/2005.

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001127855%2D05%2D000572%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2005%5C09%5C01%5C&CoName=SINOVAC+BIOTECH+LTD&FormType=20%2DF%2FA&RcvdDate=9%2F1%2F2005&pdf=


nice weekend and best for your invest

Quote from: fousc on September 02, 2005, 11:19:40 AM
And at 21 im likely to be the youngest

18 here :-)

18 here :-)

Quote

crap i lose :-\

Don't feel too bad, at 57 I am in competition for "oldest fart on the board."  ;D

You lost already,I'm 60...No doubt there is someone 90... ;D

Dont know about oldest Fart. But I just turned 66.  Loving every min of it >:D

Quote from: fousc on September 03, 2005, 02:54:59 PM
18 here :-)

Quote

crap i lose :-\

You'd have lost anyway.  I'm 19.

I promised a fundamental write up on SVA this weekend but I am a bit lazy so let me instead quote from a Venture Capitalist newsletter (I guess nobody would believe me anyhow if I talked about 9000% return  ???):

Venture Capitalist Situation No. 1: Make 15-90 Times Your Money and Crush SARS, Hepatitis and the Flu

Virtually unknown in the United States, this small company is beloved in China. You see, there's a colossal epidemic of hepatitis in China, with more than 200 million Chinese estimated to be infected with one strain or another.

Not surprisingly, China is the third highest consumer of hepatitis medicine in the world. However, 90% of that medicine is a dangerous vaccine, sometimes causing liver, spleen and lung damage to the patients receiving it. The other 10% is a much safer variety.

China is about to mandate a change to the safer vaccine. And our small biotech company makes half of the output of it. This policy change alone will instantly increase the company's hepatitis market 10-fold.

But it gets better. You see, our little prize company is the only Chinese pharmaceutical manufacturer that meets the stringent European GMP (good manufacturing practices) for drugs. That makes it the go-to company when a vaccine absolutely must work.

Millions of Dollars From Ending Flu Vaccine Shortages

Remember our unfortunate lack of conventional flu vaccine during the 2004-2005 flu season? Any major flu outbreak could have been catastrophic.

This company could make that situation a thing of the past.

Its conventional flu vaccine has been approved by the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration, and the company has just built a production facility for this vaccine. That facility can already crank out 2 million doses a year. At $5 a dose, that's future potential revenue of $10 million right there.

Not bad, considering the company's market cap is only $100 million!

But this new facility will soon be able to produce up to 20 million doses. During the 2003-2004 flu season in China, 20 million doses were consumed, and about 10-20 million more could have been used had they been available.

Assuming full production, this would equate to $100 million of revenue for this small company. Not only that, but the company is planning a second facility, at a construction cost of a measly $4 million.

Think about it: Where else in the world but China could you build a full-scale vaccine manufacturing plant to world quality standards for a measly $4 million?

But it gets even better...

How to Make Boat Loads of Money When SARS is Destroyed

Most everyone in the world remembers the terrifying outbreak of SARS. We were on pins and needles for a few weeks. We were very lucky on that one. Fortunately, the SARS virus was contained. But there's no assurance that another strain of SARS won't break out somewhere else at any time.

Guess who's the world leader in SARS vaccines? Our little biotech company. In fact, it's the only company in the world that has received official approval to conduct human clinical trials on a SARS vaccine. It passed Phase 1 with flying colors. Phase 2 has already started.

This tiny company has the full backing (and funding) of the Chinese government to get this vaccine to market as fast as possible. That should happen in the next year or two. In a new epidemic situation, however, the vaccine would  be approved on an emergency basis. This would cause an immediate explosion of revenues for the company. This alone could easily make you 10-15 times your money.

And this is still just the beginning of the story...

Unfortunately, a new virus is developing that will make SARS look like a bad cold. This one could literally threaten the life of everyone on Earth, wiping out 5-10% of the human population.

Sound like a bad science-fiction novel? Believe me, this one's for real. This super-flu has wiped out 72% of the known cases of human infection. It's the greatest threat facing the world today, according to a top epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota.

Currently, there is only one drug that stands a chance of blocking this horrible virus. And it's in very short supply. No way could it stop a worldwide epidemic.

The good news is this minuscule company is already developing a vaccine against this super-flu, in a unique partnership with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Given the company's total focus on epidemic prevention, backed by the massive power of the Chinese government, this company could lead the way and will ultimately bring a successful super-flu vaccine to market.

When that happens, our tiny biotech company could own the world commercial rights to that vaccine. Let's take a few minutes to discuss the potential.

All known cases of this super-flu are currently contained in Southeast Asia. But that may not always be the case. If it somehow gets out of this area, it could spread like wildfire. Klaus Stohr of the World Health Organization's global influenza program recently declared, "It will go around the globe, and nothing will stop it."

Remember, no human immunity to this virus has been found. In a worldwide epidemic, everyone on the planet would potentially need this vaccine in a widespread epidemic. That's a potential market of 6 billion people. At a conservative estimate of $5 a dose, that's $30 billion in revenues to our tiny company.

Of course, it's not realistic to say that everyone in the world will need the vaccine. After all, we have the ways and means to control an epidemic, containing it to certain areas.

But part of that containment process involves creating buffer zones against the spread of the infection. That would lead to at least 5-10% of the world's population being chosen for the vaccine. In that scenario, about $1.5 billion in revenues would be generated for our company.

So what does all this mean to potential investors?

If things go as we suspect they will, taking into consideration just the hepatitis vaccine, the conventional flu vaccine and the SARS virus vaccine, conservative estimates for this little medical dynamo show a 1,412% return over the next year, or over 15 times your money.

But the wild card is the super-flu vaccine.

In the conservative scenario discussed above, $1.5 billion in revenues would easily equate to $300 million in net profits for this little company. This would create a situation where you would realistically make 90 Times Your Money - or More!

This is no amateur-hour, pie-in-the-sky company.

Meet the Brilliant Masterminds and Prestigious Financial Advisers Behind This Company

The CEO is a man voted by the American Biographical Institute as one of the world's 500 most influential leaders. This brilliant professor of biochemistry heads several other highly influential commissions and associations steering the medical industry in China.

The president has been involved in hepatitis research and development for over 20 years, and was the inventor of the safer variation of the hepatitis vaccine. The Chinese government placed him in charge of researching the development of the SARS vaccine.

These well-connected, well-respected men have just executed a brilliant maneuver to further set this company apart from the usual Chinese company. They have employed the services of the world-renowned Credit Suisse, one of the world's largest and most respected investment banks, to act as the company's exclusive financial adviser.

For Credit Suisse to even be bothered with this company speaks volumes. After all, in this age of financial scandal such as the Enron and Arthur Andersen collapses, a company as prestigious as Credit Suisse cannot afford to mar its reputation by being associated with a substandard company.

The worst part of this company, by far, has to be its investor relations section. Otherwise, the stock price would be much, much higher.

But even that is about to change.

The company has just hired a prestigious U.S. firm to provide public and investor relations services in North America. And the president of this company did a highly unusual thing.

He personally flew to China to check this company out. He got completely up to speed on the major areas of business and technology operations, agreements and strategies. He toured the company facilities. He went over everything with a fine-toothed comb.

And then he immediately bought 550,000 shares of this company. This is one investor relations executive who puts his money where his mouth is!

Bottom line: With the incredible research and development facilities of this company, with the products already in the commercial pipeline, with the full backing and funding of the Chinese government, with the influential management in place and with world-renowned companies heading its financial advisory and investor relations departments, this tiny biotech company could easily make you...10-90 Times Your Money in the Next Few Years!

To be honest I am not sure we will see a 9000% return on our investment but less can do (at least for me  ;) )

Mike

I am thinking about buying next week. It may dip a bit more next week so I will look for a good entry point.

Quote from: valueseeker on September 04, 2005, 05:40:43 PM
I am thinking about buying next week. It may dip a bit more next week so I will look for a good entry point.

Thanks for the fundamental angle Michael. Well Valueseeker, I think you might be right on that entry. A convergence of moving averages, potential 50 thru 200ma cross, uptrend support line, declining volume on the pullback all signal this strong performer is about to go for continuation. There is a LOT of technical support just under $3, if it bounces before then then all the better for the strength of the future moves.

Michael gave us a pleasent fundamental background of SVA and I have a trading plan that makes sure I'm on board for as long as the market responds to the fundamental expectations and facts.

But for now I'm losing 18% in just 5 days, so this stock is a fast mover, and it is moving down. So I've read only part of the Venture Capitalist newsletter, I don't want to fall in love with the fundamental story of the company. I'll just stick to my trading plan which is to hold for as long as it closes above the TEMA indicator.

The TEMA indicator (red line on chart) now stands at $2.79.

Nice start of the week .. ;D, and David spoke the right words: this stock is a fast mover!

Now let´s have a look if we will see some new highs..

I bought SVA this morning, waiting for a pull back that never came. I think it's at least a 2-3 baggers from here, based on its hep-A/B and flu alone, while SARS vaccine will keep it in the spotlight. It is a long term investment like AOB. This company almost showed a profit if you take away the stock compensation. In fact, the revenue # they have in 20K is from end of last year, and they might be already profitable by now. I also saw that the President of China and head of chinese FDA visited the company, which is a very good indication of their connections with the top government officials.


-Louis

Except:
------------------------------

Biotech research investment advocated
By Wu Chong (China Daily)
Updated: 2005-09-05 08:35

China can become the world's leader in biotechnological applications in agriculture, medicine and industry over the next five to 10 years, according to one industry insider. This can be achieved with an investment of 100 billion yuan (US$12.3 billion).

"At least 30 billion yuan (US$3.7 billion) must come from the central government," Wang Hongguang, director of the China National Centre for Biotechnology Development, told China Daily yesterday.

In his eyes, biotechnology can become a driving force behind the country's economy, and the world's, if the government pays it due attention.

Between 2001 and 2005, the State has plunged 12 billion yuan (US$1.5 billion) into biotechnology development and application, and now the sector boasts 600 billion yuan (US$74 billion) in terms of both its total investment and fixed assets.

"The figure, although 10 times as much as a decade ago, must be at least doubled in the next five years to maintain the current high momentum," Wang said.

Breakthroughs are expected in the fields of life research, environment and energy, but, Wang warned, the country is "suffering from a brain drain and a lack of funds."

These remarks were made as a prelude to the International Bio-economy Symposium slated for September 13 and 16 in Beijing.

More than 3,000 related international officials and experts from up to 20 countries, regions and organizations are expected to participate in this high-profile conference, which will cover various topics concerning basic life science, energy-related biotechnology and biological security.

China has amazed the world with several outstanding achievements in genetic therapy, vaccination and food fermentation. Some of its well-funded projects, such as therapeutic vaccines against AIDS and hepatitis B and transgenic plants, are expected to yield results.

That's the way, the way, I like it  8)

Nice retest and cool bounce from the breakout zone. I can only see new highs for the short term on SVA. Anyway, I want to be disciplined here (I want and need to be disciplined ALWAYS), so let me take a look at the TEMA indicator. Is price above it? Yes, so I'll continue to hold SVA.

It is always a strange feeling to write a post recommending a stock because it might benefit from other peoples misery. But another way to look at it is that unless somebody was willing to risk their money preparing for pandemics even more people would die. So read this with that in mind:

WHO is out again today to warn about the risk of a Bird Flu pandemic:

QuoteBird flu pandemic a question of when, not if -WHO
07 Sep 2005 14:07:59 GMT

Source: Reuters

We may be at almost the last stage before the pandemic virus may emerge," Dr. Jai P. Narain, Director of WHO's communicable diseases department told a news conference on the sidelines of a Southeast Asia health summit in the Sri Lankan capital.

"Whether the avian influenza pandemic will occur, that is not the question any more, (but) as to when the pandemic will occur," he added.

SVA is currently running a pre-clinical test of a vaccine against the Avian Flu (Bird Flu)

QuoteSinovac is currently advancing its Inactivated New Human Influenza (H5N1) vaccine (also referred to as Pandemic Influenza Vaccine) through the various stages of pre-clinical studies.

On March 25 2004, Sinovac received a reassortant influenza strain (NIBRG-14) for developing a Pandemic Influenza Vaccine (H5N1) from the British National Biological Standard and Control (NIBSC), which is the WHO International Laboratory for Biological Standards. The WHO distributed this virus strain to major vaccine manufacturers all over the world and recommended them to use it to develop a Pandemic Influenza Vaccine, since they considered that this strain will be the epidemic strain in the next potential outbreak caused by avian flu virus H5N1.

Sinovac completed a research protocol for developing an avian flu vaccine in April 2004 after receiving the reassortant influenza strain for bird flu H5N1 virus from the World Health Organization network.

In December 2004, Sinovac signed a major co-development agreement with the Chinese Centre of Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) to accelerate the development of an avian flu vaccine for which Sinovac will own commercial rights. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) is the main government institution in China involved in the field of disease control and prevention.

The SFDA has stated that it is fast-tracking the drug approval process for Sinovac's potential avian flu vaccine. Sinovac is currently progressing through the pre-clinical stage - the first step of this process.

The last Vaccine SFDA approved took just under four years from start of pre-clinical trials to approval. Having in mind that the Avian flu vaccine is fast tracked it should hopefully be ready in 2007

Lets hope there will be no market for the product but according to WHO that is unlikely.

I own IDBE (a flu vaccine company in Canada), which was bought by GSX today for ~US$1.3B today.

SVA's market cap is $130M with both flu vaccine and hep-A/B vaccine approvals in China. I don't think SVA is for sale. I hope it's going to be a money generating machine soon. :-)


-Louis

Honestly, I think if we are looking at 5-10 yrs from now, it won't be GSX buying IDBE today, it will be SVA, at US$1.4B. This is how I look at SVA's potential. If you rewind the history 5 years back, who would think chinese buying IBM's PC division and paying US$4B for a Canadian/ex-Soviet oil company?

Nice posts and long term thinking on SVA and the Bird Flu, thanks  :). Even here in Portugal the newspapers are starting to talk about that disease. I hope nothing happens, but we (the World) need to be prepared for the worst case scenario.

But even without this dread speculation SVA has great value.

Technically that white marubozu that I was so excited about (sometimes I don't like my comments when I read them later, sometimes they have just too much enthusiasm when we're just talking about stocks, stocks that need to be analyzed with a cold attitude) needed stronger volume to have continuation.

Yesterday we've had a minor correction and SVA wasn't able to break to new highs. Anyway, the trend is clearly bullish and the trend is my friend. I will hold this stock for as long as my good old friend trend says «Hold».

He is talking through the TEMA indicator on the chart. For today it stands at $2.86, so I'll continue holding the stock.

seems to be that 50 day moving average approaching 200 day moving average. A cross over of the 200 day moving average by the 50 day moving average would be very positive from TA .
>:D

chart:

Quote from: AussieTrader on September 05, 2005, 11:41:27 PM

A convergence of moving averages, potential 50 thru 200ma cross, uptrend support line, declining volume on the pullback all signal this strong performer is about to go for continuation. There is a LOT of technical support just under $3, if it bounces before then then all the better for the strength of the future moves.

Quote

Hey La Onda, you are thinking in exactly the right direction ;)

I agree, nice candlestick on SVA yesterday. The technical picture looks rosy and the fundamentals are great. Besides, this is the kind of stock that I want now, on a defensive sector but with projected high revenue growth.

Price = $3.61 > TEMA = $2.90 => Hold SVA.

There were no new technical or fundamental developments on SVA's Friday session.

The tema indicator stands at $2.93 and rising. I will continue to hold SVA.

Another good pick.  Some national news today of interest.  Relevant portions below.  Dave

GENEVA (Reuters) - Margaret Chan, responsible for helping defend the world against an influenza pandemic that could kill millions, says an outbreak of bird flu among humans may be imminent, but there is still time to act.

"We have a window of opportunity to prevent a pandemic or at least delay the spread of a pandemic," Chan, chief of pandemic influenza preparedness at the
World Health Organization (WHO), told Reuters.

The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, which returned late last year, has killed 63 in Asia, mainly in Vietnam and Thailand. It has also struck flocks in six Russian regions and Kazakhstan.

So far there has been no sustained human-to-human transmission, according to the WHO, a
United Nations agency.

But from experience, Chan, 58, knows that it is important to act quickly. As head of Hong Kong's health department in 1997, when bird flu made the first jump to humans, she within days ordered the entire poultry population of 1.5 million birds slaughtered.

Her warning now comes as avian flu has spread across Asia and to Europe's doorstep.

"Buying time will allow us to fast-track pandemic vaccine production. It will allow governments to put in place a host of emergency public health measures that will reduce mortality and morbidity, and social and economic disruption," Chan said in an interview.

But WHO and other experts fear the bird flu virus will mutate or mix its genetic material with seasonal human flu -- which kills up to 500,000 people a year -- creating a deadly pandemic strain that could spread rapidly across continents.

The diminutive doctor, who began her career as a teacher before earning a medical degree in Ontario, Canada, is working hard to convince all governments to ramp up their defenses.

Forecasts predict more than 25 million hospital admissions and up to 7 million deaths globally within a short period.

"This is perhaps the only time since 1968, which was the last pandemic, that we are getting signs, symptoms and warnings from nature ... More and more birds are dying in different parts of the world -- this is the kind of signals and early warnings that we are referring to," she told reporters in late July.

Urgently preparing for an outbreak should save lives.

Chan called for countries to "put a life to these plans," by carrying out simulation and desk-top exercises.

Vaccines are the "best intervention" but exactly which virus will emerge as the pandemic strain is not known yet. And global manufacturing capacity, 300 million doses, won't be enough.

________________
China was widely blamed for concealing the initial scale of the SARS contagion, which eventually infected more than 8,000 people worldwide and killed more than 800.

Chan, asked whether secretive or authoritarian regimes were open to cooperation ahead of a pandemic, replied: "Countries have improved since SARS. They understand the importance of responding and being as prompt and transparent as possible."

"The lesson I learned from previous outbreaks is a local public health issue can become an international issue because of the volume of travel in terms of people, goods and services," she said.

NIce day for SVA with a good close and now sitting perhaps at a pivotal point from a technical perspective.

Thanks for your fundamental and technical information  :)

SVA has a strong fundamental background and the trend remains bullish. There are no motives to sell the stock. The tema indicator for today is standing at $2.98 and rising, so I will continue to hold the stock.

The market was down heavy, but SVA rose 4.3% to a new high, as it should, given its defensive position (I mean defensive in a way that it is and will be a growth stock even if the global economy slackens).

White candle, new high, volume above average. Tema is coming up, but still below the stock price, so the trend is bullish and I will continue holding SVA.

Once again bullish news for SVA:

QuoteDrugs plug gap as world awaits bird flu vaccine

14 Sep 2005 01:02:16 GMT
Source: Reuters


By Ben Hirschler

LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Scientists believe they have the know-how to make an effective vaccine against pandemic bird flu; the problem is how to make enough of it.........

"If you need to vaccinate the whole world, you are not going to do that with existing capacity, which is basically aimed at the over-65s in the West," said Tony Colegate of Chiron Corp <CHIR.O>, who coordinates production issues for the Influenza Vaccine Supply Task Force, an international industry group.

Adding new production will take time, raising fears that many poor parts of the world are likely to go without.

At present, 90 percent of capacity is concentrated in Europe and North America, and the World Health Organization (WHO) says past experience suggests governments will be reluctant to release supplies for export before domestic demand is fully met.

There will also be a hiatus of four to six months while factories switch to making a pandemic version, once a new strain of humanized bird flu is identified.

You can read the rest of the article here: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L26432038.htm .

It seems like SVA's new production facilities will come in handy  ::)

I like to compare SVA and AOB. They both operates in the Chiness Health sector, which is growing even more rapidly than the chiness Economy. They both have strong ties to the Government. They have both executed very attractive acquisitions etc.

But they have more in common than the fundamentals. Both the charts are also very strong:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=5261;image)

SVA is advancing under strong volume and consolidating under low volume similar to AOB. MA50 is making a golden cross with MA200.

The stock is in a strong up trend but is still not overbought. I will therefore add to my position during the first hour of trading today.

Mike

This is from YH MB:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1609752963&tid=sva&sid=1609752963&mid=2865

----------------------------

About a week ago, I talked to Craig, SVA's IR person since June. I've been too busy to post and even now I will be brief. Here are some significant points:

1. News has been backed up because he wants the next PR to be the financials for the first half of 2005. There are no problems, but the acctg. firm has been slow to complete things. He hopes to see improved timeliness in the future and a move to quarterly reporting.

2. Once the financials are out, it sounds like multiple news releases will follow soon after.

3. A critical point for him is the end of this month (Sept. 30?---not sure of the exact date) when they will present at the UBS conference in NYC. (If you remember, last year's conference was poorly handled and pretty disappointing.) I inferred that some concrete news will be released at that time.

4. We didn't get into specifics about the status of each of the products, except that he feels that EVERYTHING is proceeding well. The areas in which I would like to (and hope to) see news soon are Bilive sales, Anflu kick-off, SARS Phase 2 (or whatever), and perhaps overseas sales. I got a sense from him that at least some of this news is imminent.

5. He also implied that there would be significant news about the avian flu vaccine very soon. He seemed very excited even while he acknowledged that this product has been overhyped. I was somewhat encouraged, though (as you know if you've read my recent posts), I remain skeptical about whether SVA will ever make a yuan off of bird flu.

6. He stressed that he has nothing to do with pump newsletters and the like. He can't stop them but has done nothing to aid or encourage them either.

7. He had no concrete information, but hopes that the Wang stuff will be put behind SVA. It sounds to me that he is consistently advising Yin and others to improve fiscal and management practices to meet intl. standards.

All in all a very encouraging phone call. I hope I've reported it fairly and accurately.

Dan

Thanks Dan, great info  :)

SVA = $3.72 > TEMA = $3.07 => HOLD SVA

It seems we've had a false breakout on SVA. Volume, being weaker on this breakout than on the last time the stock was at this level, was signaling this could happen. So we can expect some short term declines to happen on SVA, if there are no developments on the fundamental side.

I'm a bit afraid of considering the TEMA indicator for hold/sell decisions, instead of the ascending trendline. You see, TEMA isn't known for many people, but everybody that wants to buy on support knows the ascending trendline will probably be the right entry point.

Anyway, I'll hold the stock for now and if it approaches the supports we're considering I'll decide then which one is the best to base my decision.

We've had the lowest volume day on SVA for almost 2 months, just 90,000 shares traded on Friday. The tema indicator for tomorrow will be standing at $3.13 and the ascending moving average $3.03. I'll continue holding the stock, despite of the apparent lack of interest from investors, the trend is still clearly bullish.

New website just came out:

http://sinovac.com/

Hopefully news & financials coming out soon.

Thanks for the site info.  Did you read the (RISKS RELATED TO SINOVAC'S FINANCIAL CONDITION).  That will get you pumped up - NOT. lol   :-\

I think much of the $4.5M loss they incurred in 2004 was due to stock option (>$4M). They might be already profitable in 2005.

Chinese banks usually give loans out to companies at SVA's stage. So they may not need to take a dilution. I wouldn't be surprise the government finance some of the SARS vaccine R&D, if you notice the visits of the President of China and Head of Chinese FDA to SVA.

At $136M valuation, this company has much to grow.

Let's hope that the scenario below is a bit over the edge but with the recent deaths in Indonesia it seems more and more likely that we will face a pandemic in the future.

QuoteBird Flu Could Cause Global Economic Catastrophe
by Geoffrey Lean 

September 19, 2005  

Bird flu threatens to cause a "catastrophic" economic crash in Britain and around the world, unprecedented in modern times, according to new research.

Two studies from Nottingham University and the Bank of Montreal in Canada show that a flu pandemic - described by the World Health Organisation last week as inevitable - would slash at least £95bn from British GDP, extinguish at least 900,000 jobs and create a global depression to rival that of the 1930s.

They come as world leaders attending the United Nations summit last week began to recognise the scale of the potential threat from the influenza virus, codenamed H5N1, which has reached the borders of Europe.

President George Bush has launched an International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza, under which countries - including the US, Britain, Australia, Canada, China and Russia - and UN agencies will pool resources and expertise to try to head it off. His administration announced that health ministers from around the world would shortly meet in Canada to back the initiative.

Bird flu, which originated in China and South-east Asia, is being spread by migrating wildfowl, infecting domestic poultry. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation warned this month that it will reach every continent. Last week Russia reported a third outbreak among chickens in Chelyabinsk in the Urals, on Europe's doorstep.

So far about 60 people are known to have died from the virus, about half of those infected. Experts fear that it will mutate to spread rapidly among people, killing tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions worldwide. Last week Dr Lee Jong-wook, director-general of the World Health Organisation, said the mutation was inevitable and "just an issue of timing". Publicly the Government says that more than 50,000 people are likely to die in Britain, but privately it is preparing for up to 750,000 deaths. Earlier this year Professor Hugh Pennington, one of the country's experts, said that the British death toll could reach two million.

The Nottingham University study was commissioned for an edition of the ITV programme Tonight with Trevor McDonald, which will be screened tomorrow and features The Independent on Sunday's campaigning coverage of the issue.

The study used a giant computer model of the British economy. It found that even a relatively mild pandemic, with 50,000 deaths, would cut Britain's GDP by a staggering 8 per cent or £95bn, cost 941,000 jobs, and "affect every aspect of life in Britain".

Professor Thea Sinclair, who led the research, says that a more serious pandemic, killing hundreds of thousands or millions of Britons, would have "truly catastrophic" effects on the economy.

SVA's new vaccine production facilities might litterally be worth their weight in Gold in case of a serious outbreak. As said let's hope that this will not be the case but I get more and more confident in my investment with each new case reported.

Unortunately the bad news relating to Avian flu and pandemics etc becoming a reality are good news for stocks holders. SVA certainly reacting today to the discussion at the UN. $3.98 zone is resistance right now throgh that and we could see a run to $4.45 highs. I would like to see $4 become support for consolidation. I am also holding NVAX for the same reasoning.
This story is not going to go away anytime soon

SVA was up a lot intraday but the rally fizzled a bit at the end of the session, on profit taking. Nothing to worry about or even take notice. The trend is still bullish and fundamentals will probably back up this stock on every short term decline phase that eventually happens.

The tema indicator for tomorrow will come at $3.16 and the ascending trendline stands at $3.09.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050920/205626.html?.v=1

present at UBS Global Life Sciences and received $4.94M credit line from a chinese bank (I was right about banks giving loans to companies at SVA stage). Pre-market seems to like this news.

Also government grant for avian flu

Three great news today from SVA (wonder why they had to put them in one pressrelease  ???)

• They are going to present to 4,000 institutional investors at the UBS Global Life Science Conference. That should give them the visibility they have been lacking till now!
• The Chiness Government is going to finance the development of the Avian Flu vaccine (Isen't it nice to have good relation to the local authorities (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4980))
• They receive 4.94 million dollar credit line from China Construction Bank with a low interest

I can't help falling in love with this company (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3070)

Quote from: AussieTrader on September 19, 2005, 10:40:19 AM
$3.98 zone is resistance right now throgh that and we could see a run to $4.45 highs. I would like to see $4 become support for consolidation. I am also holding NVAX for the same reasoning.
This story is not going to go away anytime soon

Well maybe today we see +$4 and a new support zone ;)

PR wise they need to take a lesson in maximising their good news stories. They crammed 3 good releases into 1, oh well all good news anyway. Should make for interesting day.

Bought on a dip this morning, in at 3.72$.

It looks like I didn't post a chart on SVA on my last update, when something like this happens please send me a private message so I can update the post with the chart, thanks  :)

Michael already told us about the great news the company released today:

Quote from: Michael on September 20, 2005, 09:02:36 AM
Three great news today from SVA (wonder why they had to put them in one pressrelease  ???)

• They are going to present to 4,000 institutional investors at the UBS Global Life Science Conference. That should give them the visibility they have been lacking till now!
• The Chiness Government is going to finance the development of the Avian Flu vaccine (Isen't it nice to have good relation to the local authorities (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4980))
• They receive 4.94 million dollar credit line from China Construction Bank with a low interest

I can't help falling in love with this company (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3070)

Undoubtedly, awesome news for SVA !

Aussietrader also said this:

QuoteWell maybe today we see +$4 and a new support zone  ;)

PR wise they need to take a lesson in maximising their good news stories. They crammed 3 good releases into 1, oh well all good news anyway. Should make for interesting day.

Yes, we've had great technical developments on SVA, I had to design a new trendline, TL2, with a steeper slope and that's always a good sign.

Now, considering the press release stuff, do you know how much it costs to issue a press release? SVA, giving us three important positive developments in just one press release is showing it is concerned about controlling costs  ;D Also, the PR has just a few words, and PR are paid by the word  ;D

Well, of course, I consider more important to keep the investor community well informed than the cost of the press release, just kidding. But this way of sending out the news will probably make the news spread even more, as traders and speculators will pass along the story as something not totally recognized or uncovered, and that will probably add even more fire to the bull run on SVA !

I don't need to say anything more about SVA, there's no doubt I will continue holding the stock, I'm expecting a big day tomorrow as the story spreads.

From the Yahoo board:

Spoke with IR
by: ...
Msg: 2946 of 2953

Thought I would post here just so that the helpful guys in SVA IR don't get needlessly harassed by the same questions I had.

1. The press release from this morning is authentic. China indeed is doing as the news states.

2. The strange presentation of the financing announcement this morning (combining a conference update and financing) was on purpose. There was pressure from external parties to present it this way.

My read was that China wants to keep this as quiet as possible, while allowing SVA to fulfill its disclosure requirements.

3. The next announcement regarding bird flu is likely to be the announcement of application to conduct clinical trials. It seems the bird flu vaccine is in testing with animals right now. Timeframe not yet provided.

4. It appears that the reason that China "chose" SVA was due to China's success with SVA vis a vis SARS vaccine. It seems that SVA has earned the respect of China.

Just passing it along. I was very confused by the format of this morning's announcement, and it appears that there are real reasons for it.

Thanks for that post Se7en, it is a plausible explanation  :)

SVA surprised me with this kind of slow profit taking day. It looks like Michael and Aussietrader, demanding louder press releases, were right. It's incredible but perhaps not many people payed enough attention to the news:

«BEIJING, Sep 20, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd (SVA) today announced that it will present at the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) Global Life Sciences Conference; has received a government grant for the development of an avian flu vaccine for humans; and received a USD 4.94 million dollar commercial credit line from a Chinese commercial bank.»

Anyway, the trend is still bullish and I will continue, without a doubt, holding SVA.

TL2 will be standing at $3.96 tomorrow. But given the fundamentals of the company I won't use this trendline as a barometer for trading decisions, but TL1. I'm afraid a false technical signal puts me out of this very fundamentally promising stock. Of course I would prefer if TL2 held SVA, since that would mean the short term action is more bullish than otherwise.

TL1 for tomorrow will be standing at $3.14, rising just $0.02 per trading day.

Here's an interesting story from someone who had the avain flu. Sounds like a potiential nightmare if we ever have a world wide epidemic. I hope Sva is in the right place.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050922/hl_afp/healthfluvietnam_050922143852

Thanks for the link johnbmcginnis  :) I hope this disease doesn't turn into something really problematic on a regional or even global scale. Just because they ate a duck ... I hope SVA and others prepare the vaccine really fast.

Technically the stock is great after a 2.53% rise on Friday. I made a small adjustment to my TL2 to reflect yesterday touch, this way it seems more accurate. I will undoubtedly continue holding SVA, it looks like a great investment from the fundamental side and technicals support that assumption.

I'm running late on these updates today, what can I say about SVA? Another day, another high  :)

hi david,
   after today's action here is a nice orderly swing chart climb by sva...........hahhhhhh...(sigh)
if only all stocks cruised along like this....................
maxi.
i have sent in my years subscription . looking forward to the coming year! i have learnt more in the couple of months i have been here than i could have from any number of books over years of study, truly the fast track.

Quotei have sent in my years subscription . looking forward to the coming year! i have learnt more in the couple of months i have been here than i could have from any number of books over years of study, truly the fast track.

Thanks for your kind words maxi  :) I'm looking forward to the coming year too  :)

As rickjust just said, SVA is on a steady upward trend with volume above average. I will continue holding SVA, since I need to let profits run to take them when they are big, to more than compensate for the small losses I must take along the way too.

TL2 for today stands at $4.11.

SVA came down to touch the ascending trendline again and it made a bit of a comeback by the end of the session. I don't want to focus too much on the trendline here, I remember of setting up a plan based on the Tema indicator (triple exponential moving average - the explanation of the indicator is at the beginning of this thread).

I remember of clearly stating: «I have nothing else to weigh or consider. Just check if the close was above or below the 121 period tema indicator».

SVA = $4.23 > TEMA = $3.52 => HOLD SVA.

David,

Have you still been following bcon? Do yo think it is at the bottom?

Thanks,

bwaldo

Quote from: bwaldo on September 29, 2005, 07:25:13 AM
David,

Have you still been following bcon? Do yo think it is at the bottom?

Thanks,

bwaldo

Yes, I've been following BCON as I do will all 3 Stocks on Fire Previous picks (I check the charts everyday) looking for a possibility of a buy back. I don't know if BCON is at the bottom now, but I don't see any technical buy signal at this point. I will continue looking for it.

Good luck bwaldo  :)

Low volume day for a 1.65% rise on SVA. Fine by me. The stock is still trading above the Tema indicator (red line on the chart), so I'll continue holding it. The fundamental background is extremely bullish as you can read on the rest of this thread.

UN comments on Bird Flu Pandemic, with statements such as 'when the outbreak occurs, killing 150M people' NOT 'If it were to breakout'  :o These sort of headlines will no doubt add fuel to the likes of SVA and NVAX.

BBC News story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4292426.stm

Quote from: AussieTrader on September 30, 2005, 05:06:45 AM
UN comments on Bird Flu Pandemic, with statements such as 'when the outbreak occurs, killing 150M people' NOT 'If it were to breakout'  :o These sort of headlines will no doubt add fuel to the likes of SVA and NVAX.

I am sitting here in the middle of boxes enjoying SVA (The removal company said the move would take between 2 and 3 weeks and it took less than 1 week - Africa is really making a lot of progress!!!)

A couple of weeks ago I posted a message saying that SVA has a 9000% potential. Pretty aggressive target but I believe that SVA will surprise a lot of people.

We got mentioned at briefing.com today:

Quote09:37 SVA Sinovac Biotech: Play on $4 bln avian flu bill (4.38 +0.08)

Yesterday, the U.S. Senate approved $4 bln to fight bird flu by stocking up on anti-viral drugs and increasing global surveillance of the disease. Watch for potential interest on SVA, which received Anflu Flu Vaccine Production License from Chinese FDA in July. SVA is waiting for manufacturing plant approval to begin avian flu production.

We don't need much coverage like this before we trade in double digits.

I have a little backlog on answering messages. Please bear over with me. I really need to settle in and get acquainted to the nightlife in Maputo (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3311;image)

Mike

Great day with SVA! Bravo to Bravo as well!

I think SVA can achieve profitability with its Hep-A/B vaccine alone. The only reason they haven't is because of the $4M+ stock option expense they had last year.

Now that the chinese bank is providing very low interest loans for AnFlu production gearing for the flu seaon (15-20M doses shortage in the coming one), and the chinese government is bankrolling Avian Flue R&D. This company should be the star (ok, co-start with AOB) of Chinese bio-tech in 2006.


-Valueseeker

Is it too late to buy SVA?  At what price would be okay?

Quote from: brandyjoco on October 02, 2005, 07:53:41 PM
Is it too late to buy SVA?  At what price would be okay?

Reading this entire thread I don't think, at all, that it is too late to buy SVA. A perfect technical buy point would be a fill at the ascending trendline (blue TL2 on the chart) which for today will be standing at $4.33 and rising $0.06 per trading day. But sometimes you need to buy at what price you can, or see the stock run away forever (or at least for a long time).

My plan is to hold SVA for as long as it closes above the tema indicator (red line on the chart), whatever happens on the fundamental side of the equation. The tema indicator for today stands at $3.64, so I will continue holding SVA on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

(Michael, Maputo must be lovely, I wish you enjoy your new home :) I wonder if the city still has many Portuguese marks)

Hmmmm...... 3stocksonfire has finally been reduced to three stocks that really is on fire (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4980)

I would have loved the name to be 5stocksonfire so you didn't have to sell AOB and VPHM....... (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3074)

Quote from: David Randolph on October 03, 2005, 05:25:56 AM
...... sometimes you need to buy at what price you can, or see the stock run away forever (or at least for a long time).

Very true. I am not sure when this run will end. The potential is just amazing from a fundamental point of view. You have SARS and Bird Flu, which will (unfortunately) ensure media attention for the coming months and you have the low R&D cost and acquisition cost to add to the momentum.

I think that at the end of this year we will have three 3SOF picks with an absolutely amazing performance: VPHM, SVA and BRAVO! and I am going to hold all off them during good times and bad times (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3073)

We do however have a few bubblers: DNDN could be very interesting if/when there are news on the FDA approval. It seems to me that they get a little closer everyday. AOB suffered under a little profit taking but fundamentally there is still at least 100% left for the patient investor (I am always sad when i see fellow members being taken out on stop loss!). I am not in MEMY but it looks like it could still run (haven't done my DD though!)

Quote from: David Randolph on October 03, 2005, 05:25:56 AM
(Michael, Maputo must be lovely, I wish you enjoy your new home :) I wonder if the city still has many Portuguese marks)

Hey you guys are running this place. I bloody have to learn portuguess just to pay for my beer. ??? but except from that details it is really a paradise. I am spending most of my time in the pool (which unfortunately have reduced the frequency of my posting on 3SOF's).

Let me finish with the SVA chart. I love postings that finish with a beautiful picture:

Having a look at beautiful chart, I have to add one word of caution to those that are not invested (like me ;) )  At the moment, SVA is heading into heavily overbought territory.  The RSI is significantly above 70, and while it could still go higher in the short term, I would expect that it will correct and pull back towards support soon - even with all the good news  surrounding it.  While RSI is not a perfect indicator, if you look historically, SVA has pulled pack a good bit when the RSI heads back below 70.

Personally, I am hoping it will do so, as I have watched this one from the sidelines and want to join the party, but I won't if it is chasing these kinds of highs.  As david said earlier, a better strategy is to hold off and wait for the pullback, its gotta happen sometime, though if one thing is for sure, it is that this one is going higher :)

I say buy early that way you catch the stock before its climb.
But what if the stock tanks your saying, right?
Set a tight stop loss and sit back and watch the stock go!
If it falls your stopped out for a small loss. If it rises adjust your stop loss as it goes up and start counting your profits!!!!

Great call on SVA by David. I bought it and it has performed excellently.

I will fly to Beijing, China next week for three months work assignment there.

Once settled down, I will visit SVA office in ZhongGuanCun park (BioTech park in Beijing), which is very close to my office - only few blocks (Software park).

Among 3Fire stocks, fundamentally sound stocks give me much better feeling to hold (can sleep well) than story stocks.

For story stocks, you have to keep close eyes on it all the time and quite nervous sometime to hold over night.

I may have difficulty to watch intraday chart in Beijing (12 hour difference) I cannot watch it whole night.

In that case, I may have to set stop-loss to protect potential big loss for high-risk high-return
momentum stocks. That means, my stop-loss stock may be taken by mm easily if mm see the stock could run up big.

I have such bad experience before. Or I may have to take smaller position on those stocks.

Earning season is here. Many stocks with good earnings will fly. Believe that David will give us more good picks.

QuoteI think that at the end of this year we will have three 3SOF picks with an absolutely amazing performance: VPHM, SVA and BRAVO! and I am going to hold all off them during good times and bad times

BRAVO?  ???

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 03, 2005, 03:49:58 PM
I would expect that it will correct and pull back towards support soon - even with all the good news  surrounding it.

I totally agree. SVA will also suffer from profit taking, as It happened with AOB. That is only a matter of time and how severe the profit taking will be. When I see a mail like yours it seems to me like a lot of people would like to buy into the stock so probably the profit taking will not be to serious. Concerning the timing I could be tomorrow but it could also be when the stock is 50% higher. (Making a reference to AOB: who would have predicted that profit taking would have happened at 5.9 back in June when the stock was trading close to 1?

As Ultra is saying it is always better to buy a stock before it climbs but for those of us who is not born clairvoyant we some times have to buy after the fact. I bought AOB after it had increased close to 2 and I bought VPHM after it had increased more than 200% both of these investments have worked for me with a return (after I have added several times to my initial holding) of combined 485%.

SVA has still only increased with around 100% (I bought a bit cheaper than David) so I am still optimistic (I am actually a bit disaapointed (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3068)).

Mike

Bravo! = BRVO.ob

For SVA, never buy it if it already runs up big like the case today (two days in a row).

The risk-reward ratio is against you. I may miss the potential profit but I don't want to take the bigger risk. It is always related to probability.

There is > 80% of chance once you bought at the high, it will go back to earth and
put lot of pressure on you.

Most likely you can buy it at less than $5.50 in next few days (this may not happen but the chance that it will drop to less than $5.5 in next week or two is very high).

I have bought SVA few time all at the time when it touches the ascending trendline
(10 day EMA for me)

such as $4.00 on Sept 28,  $3.85 on Sept 23, $3.57 on Sept 16, and $3.10 on Sept 2.

I will sell it when it run up big in 1-2 days. In 9 of 10 times, it does pull back later.

SVA run is quite similiar to its previous run in that both started at $1.75. Last time after its three-day big run to almost $7.00, it reversed.

Look at the chart for last run from Jan 2004 - Aug 2004:

And its run this year.

It may have some additional room. But if you cannot stay with the monitors, it may surprise you when you check the stock in the second morning.

Of course, it may continue going up to double digits.
But when all the good news are out, the time may come for the big players to dump their holdings to the small investors. Once the stock is down, it will down big in one day.

Quote from: Se7en on October 03, 2005, 04:20:44 PM
BRAVO?  ???

Now that is the art of stock picking. If you go back on all the good picks on 3SOF they all started with a good story (to quote shawfund). The art is to pick those where the story is backed up with strong fundamentals. SFP (to take another 3SOF pick) is a case where the story was great but the fundamentals were dreadful.

I believe that the Bravo story is based on strong fundamentals. It might have good times and bad times but three months from now I think it will have done great (please remember that the 3SOF entry is much lower than reflected in the portfolio (David made one of his amazing stunts when he sold high and bought back in again cheap!).

I admire those like David and Shawfund who can do that successfully but you will often find that they miss the long and consistent move (as David did with VPHM and AOB).

Thought you meant another stock, I know BRVO.OB, but i'm not in it... yet. :)

Guys, what's your take on a previous 3SOF pick HOM??
Tia!

Quote from: shawFund on October 03, 2005, 04:50:10 PM
SVA run is quite similiar to its previous run in that both started at $1.75. Last time after its three-day big run to almost $7.00, it reversed.

Look at the chart for last run from Jan 2004 - Aug 2004:

Shawfund,

Overbought is a funny expression. A stock can be overbought because the fundamentals are extremely strong. Try to take a second look at SVA from June to august 2004. You will see it was overbought during the whole period. If history is going to repeat itself SVA is going to reverse when it is at 20.

I think that it is time to buy stocks like SVA when governments start to be concerned about the supply of vaccines and if you read the news it is not only governments it is also WHO and grassroot organisations. That was not the case back in 2004.

I might be wrong - but SVA is not one of the stocks that keeps me awake at night  ;)

Here is the longterm SVA chart for easy reference:

Mike

I am not condoning behavior like this (in fact I think it is absolutely disgusting) but try to read the article below from WSJ. You might wonder what commercial interest is taken care of.

I think it is pretty clear - keeping in mind that the Chinese Government is sponsoring SVA's development of a Bird Flu vaccine:

QuoteSharing Of Bird-Flu Data

Global Health Officials Say China Puts Scientific Credit Over Public-Health Threat

By NICHOLAS ZAMISKA
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 30, 2005

For months, global health officials have been asking China for samples of bird-flu virus it has collected, eager to study them for any signs of mutation that might signal a human pandemic in the making.

Now, one reason for the delay is becoming clearer: academic rivalry.

According to officials at the World Health Organization and the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, senior health officials in the Chinese government are reluctant to share virus samples that might help propel their own scientists to acclaim.

"They want to get the international scientific recognition that they think they deserve," said Juan Lubroth, senior officer of the animal-health service for the FAO.

Dr. Lubroth was one of several high-level officials from the WHO and FAO who flew late in August to Beijing, the country's capital, and Harbin, where the main laboratory is located, to try to convince the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture to hand over the samples. He added that while the Chinese were "extremely forthcoming" in some areas, "we didn't leave with the [genetic] sequence in our pocket, much less with the virus." WHO says it still is waiting to hear back from the Chinese officials.

There are many reasons the Chinese might be reluctant to share the samples. While the country has grown significantly more cooperative on public-health matters since it drew criticism for initially covering up an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in late 2002 and early 2003, Beijing remains reluctant to share sensitive data.

The stalemate also casts a rare light on the highly competitive world of microbiology, where professional success is sometimes at odds with public health. What might have seemed a benign display of academic egotism in another context could pose a serious threat, some experts say, since the samples may hold important clues to how the virus is, or isn't, evolving.

In recent years, a particularly lethal strain of avian influenza has infected and killed an increasing number of humans who have come into contact with sick birds. Since late 2003, 60 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia have died from the disease.

While the virus hasn't yet shown any sign of spreading readily from human to human, scientists fear it could mutate into a form that can do just that, sparking a pandemic that could kill millions world-wide.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has appointed one of the WHO's most senior experts to lead the coordination of a global response to bird flu and a possible human pandemic, the U.N. health agency announced Thursday. Mr. Annan selected David Nabarro, WHO's top health-crisis official, who has held several leadership positions within the agency, including on malaria, environmental health, food safety and most recently in crisis operations.

In China, the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute is taking the lead in studying samples isolated from outbreaks among migratory and domestic fowl this year in the country's remote western provinces of Qinghai, Xinjiang and Tibet. The lab has sequenced at least some of the genetic code of the virus and has run tests using the virus on chickens, ducks and mice, a person familiar with the research said. The Chinese researchers plan to publish a paper in a scientific journal in the coming months, the person said

The Chinese say they plan to share the samples at some point, adding they shouldn't be held to a higher standard than some laboratories in other countries that hoard scientific data.

"We will share," said one of the Chinese scientists involved with the research. "You can ask the American labs, when they get samples, how long it will take for them to share the samples? We've had a lot of problems. We never get samples from American labs."

When asked the reason for the delay in turning over the specimens, a representative of the Ministry of Agriculture said negotiations are under way and that when the organization shared its samples last year, the intellectual property of Chinese research institutes wasn't protected in certain cases. The official didn't elaborate.

As for China's academic ambitions, the official said: "Scientists of all countries hope to gain a competitive edge in academic research," adding that "scholars around the world have the similar tendency. ... We think that the academic research has to conform to the general situation of public health and safety."

The Chinese have discussed the Harbin lab's research with international authorities, who declined to disclose details of that research.

China isn't alone in taking heat for failing to share information about flu viruses. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta was taken to task by an article in last week's issue of the journal Nature, which quoted frustrated researchers complaining that the agency was reluctant to share its databases of flu-virus sequences. In the Nature article, an official at the CDC said the need for openness "must be balanced against the needs for maintaining high standards for data quality and for protecting sensitive information when the situation warrants."

At the meeting with the delegates seeking the samples, Jia Youling, China's chief veterinary officer, voiced concerns that his country's laboratories and scientists might not get the proper credit for research they were conducting if the samples were released too soon, according to international health officials present at the meeting.

Dr. Jia declined to comment for this article, saying he didn't want to become embroiled in a war of words.

In July, Dr. Jia publicly chastised Guan Yi, a flu scientist at the University of Hong Kong, for what he called Dr. Guan's reluctance to come forward with bird-flu results that could have public-health implications.

"If your only motive is to publish a paper, while ignoring the interests of local people and failing to report cases in a timely manner -- perhaps even helping trigger an epidemic -- can you live with that on your conscience?" Dr. Jia said in an interview at the time with The Wall Street Journal.

At the time, Dr. Guan brushed off the criticism, pointing out that China was only beginning to catch on to a threat from a virus that he has been studying for years. "They're playing games," he said.

Write to Nicholas Zamiska at [email protected]

Bullish stocks that are overbought can remain in overbought region for a long time.

I cannot give a true value of SVA's market cap. The last time I owned a flu shot stock was IDBE (similar stage to SVA) and it was bought for US$1.3B a few weeks back, and today's SVA's market cap is $200M. Ok, SVA is not a North American company so it won't be US$1.3B at this point. However, I think less than 1/6 is not a fair value. Most of the North American biotech start up in phase II are worth more than US$200M, and SVA has 3 products that are selling and leads the Avian flu vaccine development in China.

We know why AOB dropped from high - the conversion took place (and we remembered VPHM also remained in $5-$7 during vonersion). With SVA, this probably won't happen. The Avian flu vaccine news will continue to keep it in the spot light, and the flu season is coming.

I meant the pullback for SVA when it happens won't be dramatic as AOB in the last a couple weeks (but even AOB is now back from the lows and heading higher).

Hi, Micheal:

Just as what you predicted, I missed today's run.

After successfully played SVA (sell high and buy back at ascending trendline) few times,
I missed SVA's run today.

I sold SVA at $4.68 last Friday and was hoping it will retrace and pulled back again.

But this time it did not. So I missed 20% run.

But I almost gained 100% on SVA already after the 4 trades
(I used the componded money to re-take the positions).

I may modify some of my trading strategies to avoid such things (may be wait until candlestick reversal signal is given).

Hello !

If you want a beer in Mozambique, you should ask for «Uma cerveja, se faz favor». At the end: «Obrigado» will do  ;) And don't forget to support Benfica and Eusébio (though my club is Sporting Lisbon).

Considering SVA, the fundamental background is powerful and the market fully agrees with that assessment. As Michael says, this stock can run a lot further, to $20 or more. I don't know about that, but I will let the market tell me how much is enough.

The market will tell me to hold SVA for as long as it closes above the TEMA indicator (Triple Exponential Moving Average), which for today stands at $3.74.

Hi ShawFund,

You did better than us buy & hold type. I bought at $3.2 and sitting on 70%+ gain. Interesting that you achieved better results on SVA by doing multiple short term trades. Congrats!


-Valueseeker

SVA fell 3.28% on profit taking. Nothing to be concerned about, after all the stock rose 14% yeaterday. I see three significant support areas below current price, for anyone looking to get in (and I bet there's a lot of people looking to buy at support):

1st support: TL2 on the chart, coming tomorrow at $4.41.
2sc support: TEMA indicator, at $3.84 (at a low point, but rising fast, SVA needs to keep up)
3rd support: TL2 on the chart, standing at $3.37

I will continue holding SVA for as long as it closes above the TEMA indicator.

Breaks 52 week night on LOW volume !

It may be a rollercoaster ride, but it still is going up ;D

SVA is getting better and better. We've had a 10% advance day with volume above average on a day where the general market tanked. I see relative strength on these biotechs related to the Bird Flu (although SVA is much more than that, that's why it is the best stock on its small group).

This stock can easily run up to $20 or more. I don't know the future, but I have a trading plan that makes sure that I will be in for the long pull. The stock was up $0.54 but the TEMA indicator was up only $0.11 yesterday. This makes sure I won't be thrown out of the stock just because of profit taking, but only on a real change in the long term trend of the stock price.

Hi David,

Yeah sure SVA is on fire but still for every buyer there is a seller.

Here is what i don't understand: Who in their right state of mind wake up in the morning and say: "oh the President of United States of America is concerned about the production capacity of flu vaccine i better hurry and sell my Sinovac shares"  ::)

Melf Elf (god bless him) is still trying to explain to me the finer arts of TA, but I have to say that with out understanding the business of a company TA can do more harm than good. I am sure that most sellers of SVA is looking at the RSI and are selling becasue the stock is overbought - from my perspective we haven't even started seeing the buying.

I am adding SVA today (this is only my second purchase, so still one to go!)

Mike

Hello Michael, good to see you  :)

QuoteHere is what i don't understand: Who in their right state of mind wake up in the morning and say: "oh the President of United States of America is concerned about the production capacity of flu vaccine i better hurry and sell my Sinovac shares"  Roll  ::)

Who said that? It certainly needs to know some more about a simple law of economics, supply and demand.

QuoteMelf Elf (god bless him) is still trying to explain to me the finer arts of TA, but I have to say that with out understanding the business of a company TA can do more harm than good. I am sure that most sellers of SVA is looking at the RSI and are selling because the stock is overbought - from my perspective we haven't even started seeing the buying.

No theory is always right in the stock market. I believe technical analysis and fundamental analysis are both important, as is money management, because there's no way to totally avoid trading mistakes.

Now, there are different methods to use technical analysis. Let me give you my take on this (although I still don't have the discipline to always follow these rules, but I'm getting closer everyday).

The first and most important step of a technical analyst is to define trend. RULE 85 says «Define market action first and then take appropriate action», and RULE 5 says «Trade with the trend».

Overbought and oversold analysis should be a secondary thing, not to be used against the trend. Indicators like the RSI and the Stochastic can be usefull in trading ranges, or for selling rallies in a long term descending trend or buying sell offs in a long term ascending trend.

«Oversold» should be used only when the stock has a decline in a larger bullish trend and «overbought» should be used when the stock has a big short covering rally or a positive reaction on a long term bearish trend.

QuoteI am adding SVA today (this is only my second purchase, so still one to go!)

I think that's a good idea  :) SVA is the most bullish stock on the market at this moment and that's the kind we want. Also the company seems to be extremely undervalued at this point, truly a hidden gem.

I try to use both analysis in tandem to get superior results. I know I'm not an expert in neither of them but I am a complete analyst.

Well, enough of me, and since you don't talk much about yourself (for example, where do you get all that research you sometimes present? ;D What are your selling rules, at a profit and at a loss?), let's go to today's update of SVA.

SVA is the best stock to own in this bear market. I will hold it for as long as it continues to be this way, one must absolutely get big profits out of these when he finds them, because they're rare and they will be even more rare in the future.

So go SVA, go !

Are we not below TL2 - are you selling today??

Defenderyou

TL2 for today looks to be roughly $4.60.  David won't sell unless it is set to close below the target price.  It hasn't even been close to that today.

I believe he is using the TEMA indicator on SVA and it is even below the TL2.  No need to worry.  Normal pullback happening.

Just sold for a 42% gain, will buy back later if it drops more, which it will imo!
I'm all in cash now! :)

I added 20% in today's dip

---------------
CNN said US is absolutely dependent on foreign countries to find and manufacture drugs to fight avian flu, which has now shown up in Romania, Europe. China and India are likely to come up with solutions, of necessity.

SVA update on Avian Flu Vacciane (full update):

http://www.sinovac.com/NewsRoom/2005/9/moaq7av1kw.htm

Threat of a Pandemic

World health authorities fear that if the avian influenza virus undergoes antigenic shift with a human influenza virus, the new subtype created could be both highly contagious and highly lethal in humans. Such a subtype could cause a global influenza pandemic. According to the United States Centre for Disease Control (CDC) there were three pandemics in the 20th century:

- 1918-19, "Spanish flu" caused the highest number of known deaths: between 20 million to 50 million people may have died worldwide. Many people died within the first few days after infection and others died of complications soon after. Nearly half of those who died were young, healthy adults.

- 1957-58, "Asian flu" was first identified in China in late February 1957; it spread to the United States by June and caused about 70,000 deaths.

- 1968-69, "Hong Kong flu" was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year, causing approximately 34,000 deaths. This virus is still in circulation today.

Both the 1957-58 and 1968-69 pandemic viruses were a result of the reassortment of a human virus with an avian influenza virus. The origin of the 1918 pandemic virus is not clear.

Added more at 5.15 today; quite a bit actually; Thanks for update on TL2 indicator being at 4.70; thought is twas closer to 5.30

Defenderyou

History does repeat.

SVA lost 16% with heavy volume and closed at $5.13 today.
If you bought it higher than $5.50, today's close will make you nervous.

That is the risk for momentum stock.

Followings are the two charts (2004 and 2005):

Do you think we are to repeat the 2004 pattern next week?

Defenderyou

Quote from: defenderyou on October 09, 2005, 03:12:39 PM
Do you think we are to repeat the 2004 pattern next week?

It sounds like shawFund believes history will repeat.  However, I see a difference in volume between the two runups.  Perhaps someone could correct me if I am wrong...

I see the two scales of volume in the 2004 and 2005 runups differing.  2004 appears to have trended upwards on lower volume overall, with massive volume on the crash.  The 2005 runup has had consistently higher volume on up days and (relatively) lower volume on the recent down day.

I'm not saying I don't think this might drift lower in the upcoming days, but the general feel of Friday's action was one of a short-term trader shake-out, complete with fear and technical mindgames... :)  I added a small amount to my position on Friday, and will continue to hold unless volume suddenly dries up, or if David pulls the trigger... :) 

These "bird flu" stocks may be high-risk, white-knuckle rides, but I believe that at least one will be very rewarding if held through these upcoming weeks.  Of course, I have no clue which one will be the winner...

My biggest psychological obstacle has been that I tend to take profits too early and then watch the stock continue on to a double or triple, so I will continue to hold and use this as a learning experience, if not a profitable one.  Either way, HYRF looks like it will singlehandedly balance out any bad calls I make with the asian flu speculative plays!

Owen

3 weekend news on Avian flu:

- 20K birds died of Avian flu in Turkey
- confirmed bird flu in Romania
- confirmed 4-yr old boy with Avian flu in Indonisia

I think SVA will sell every single normal flu vaccine it can produce in the coming flu season partly due to the fear of Avian flu, and turns itself into a cash generating machine like AOB in the next few quarters.

One word for Melf Elf, it looks like he was right, SVA was overbought  :)

Anyway, the trend is still definitely bullish and the fundamental background of this company warrants much higher prices. I've set a trading plan which allows some room for fluctuation, making sure that I'm not thrown out of the windown just by a correction phase.

Only a true reversal in trend will make me sell my position on SVA. I define the trend as bullish for as long as the price closes above the TEMA indicator (red line on the chart). For today that indicator will be standing at $4.15.

But, given the nature of the selloff (-16% in just one day without a technical warning) and the news concerning the Avian Flu that came out during the weekend, with the disease spreading to Europe on birds, I guess the stock will challenge the highs soon, maybe today.

David, do you have a price target on SVA or you are just letting it run until the stop target ?

I just listened to the presentation below:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050920/205626.html?.v=1


highlights:

- no combined competitor in combined Hep-A/B vaccine
- plans to grow to 20M flu vaccine (currently 2M) facility, largest in China, can do either influenza flu (approved) or Avian Flu (under R&D)
- Chinese government backs 100% of SVA's R&D research cost in Avian flu, will do "whatever it takes to find a vaccine for Avian Flu"
- "SVA will find a cure for Avian Flu".
- Should other overseas companies find Avian Flu prior to SVA, Chinese government will likely make SVA "the" manufacturing facility for Avian Flu, since it is the largest in China (with 20M capacity in the near future)
- Well connected in China, visits by chinese president, former prime minister of Malaysia, many heads in WHO
- Shareholder base is solidifying

Once the 20M capacity is announced, they can do $120-140M revenue alone on Influenza flu. This is comparable to VPHM's revenue today. The market cap difference - VPHM = $1B, SVA = 200M. We all know that VPHM is still very undervalued.

Too all concerned for SVA:

I cannot predict the future price movement for SVA. So, I cannot say how high it could be.

But one thing I am right is that I can buy SVA now below $5.50 ($5.15 closed last Friday).

If the price run too high at too short of time, it is time to sell (Merrill Lynch sell rule number 4 - I have all 8 sell rules from Merrill Lynch).

Things are quite different this time from last year because even our president mentioned the potential problems of vaccine shortage. Most likely HEB and NVAX will continue its run.

While it is quite risky to buy momentum stocks for big gains, I have made 50%+ profit, trading BRCDE (buy at $3.90 sell at $4.10+) alone from June 2005 - Now (4 months). Each time for 5%-10% gain, not big but no risk at all (it is its book value) and the money is compounded and no losing trade.

DAVID portfolio gained 15% from June to Sept (David portfolio more than doubled in the month of May).  DAVID is great because he can pick big winners. I normally do bottom fishing.

Another beauty is that you can buy 20k, 50k or more at once no problem.
So I put 30% of my potfolio money on it each time I take a position.

For SVA, NVAX, HEB I only take small position. HEB, NVAX lose big money each year. This is not the type of stocks I normally buy. 

Another no risk stock is SUNW buy at around $3.60 - no risk, that is its bottom price (absolute bottom because that is its book value).

Quote from: REALDEALS21 on October 10, 2005, 11:10:30 AM
David, do you have a price target on SVA or you are just letting it run until the stop target ?

I don't have a price target for SVA, I need to hold it for as long as the trend is bullish.

I appreciate valueseeker's and shawFund's comments about SVA. I don't think the Book Value is always the bottom for a stock, many stocks trade below their book values and that doesn't mean they're undervalued.

The TEMA indicator is coming up fast, SVA needs to keep up with the pace. TEMA = $4.22 today, I will continue holding SVA for as long as it closes above TEMA.

This way I will be in if the stock continues to rise (as I think it will) and at the same time I protect my profits along the way.

Its interesting to see what is happening in AVIAN FLU land. As David said, he is not sure which is going to pop. Well out of the four : SVA< VICL< HEB<NVAX, the two that are popping at NVAX and VICL; but the biggest winner is BCRX - it was also plugged on Cramer tonight. Thats not inthe portfoio though - any reasons David?

I guess withe additional good news on HEB, I was surprised we so NO action today.

Also, my misfortune is that I won SVA and HEB, but not the other two which were the real movers today. Hower, from the AH action, I expect VSA will move nicely tomorrow, but not sure on HEB

One last point, a few of us have been plugging HOM since Friday - today was a nice technical more - any comments?

Thanks

Defenderyou

8 Sell Rules (not from Merill Lynch sorry, from O'Neil, founder of Investor's Business Daily):

1. Sell when the stock falls 7% or 8% from the purchase price. 
This works as a good insurance policy against serious losses.

2. Sell when the stock makes new price highs on low volume. 
This is a good way to tell if a stock is stalling and probably peaking..

3. Sell when the stock's Relative Price Strength Rating falls below 70. 
This IBD Rating helps determine if a stock is still acting like a leader. More.

4. Sell when the stock goes up too high, too fast. 
Most great stocks end their long advances with a "climax run." More.

5. Sell when the stock's 200-day moving average trends lower. 
With the right chart, this technical signal is easy to spot. More.

6. Sell when the industry leaders start struggling. 
Keep an eye on your stock's leading peers. If they falter, chances are your stock will too. More.

7. Sell when "distribution" hits the major market indexes. 
A series of declines on heavy volume means institutional investors are exiting the market. More.

8. Sell when earnings growth slows down. 
Without earnings growth, stocks lose their primary fuel. More.

Thanks ShawFund, Applaud!

[Applaud] Shawfund.  This is great information and probably deserves it's own thread, no? :)

this stock like many on strong uptrends - the pullbck to 9-day then back to high - sure low risl place to buy

SVA broke its base on August 27 with big volume and is moving along its 9 day EMA line since then.

Whenever it pulled back and touched 9 day EMA, it bounced back. Last Friday, it did again touched $5.11.

While vaccine stocks run big these days and tech stocks tunked, I am expecting that semi stock will have big end-year rally which may start at the end of October after most of them released their earnings.

Many small cap semi stocks will be doubled from the end-of October to the end-of December. That is my prediction.

I have been in and out semi stocks for few years, it is very cyclical in nature. Big swings in few months of time. That is basically how I made 80% annually return on my portfolio the last four years. 2001-06 to 2004-12 total gain is 720% basically buying selling semi and some tech stocks. Stocks such as AMKR, ONNN, STTS, KLIC, ASTSF, ACLS, SWKS, SSTI, LEXR, AMD, ... are all possible choices. Wait until their earning release.

why not play some stocks that always run before earnings!?

sva acts wonderful today  :D
Tuesday , October 11, 2005 12:40 ET

This is the 3rd 52 WEEK HIGH alert for SVA in the past 7 calendar days.

The share price for Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX: SVA) reached a new 52-week high today, trading at $6.280, up $1.000 (18.94%) from its previous close of $5.280.

The Company's previous 52-week high of $6.230 was set 5 days ago on October 06, 2005.

One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $3.350. The price has climbed more than 87 percent since then.

At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 1,405,000 shares via 376 trades, 63.22% above it's 20day average of 860,820 shares.

This new 52-week high currently puts the stock:

39.99% above its 20day Moving Average of $4.486
74.96% above its 50day Moving Average of $3.589
110.26% above its 100day Moving Average of $2.987

charts update:

I thought there was a pick on this board of this stock.
I missed this play.
Broke out of that ascending triangle and went hog wild.
Nice going to all the holders.... ;)

Support @ $5.98....5.71...5.14
MACD is Bullish
Stochastic is Bearish

Recent CandleStick Analysis
Bearish
Oct-07-2005 Bearish Engulfing 

Sorry for being a bit absent but investing is taking a secong priority right now (first priority is to enjoy life and by the end of the day this is what investment is all about  ;))

I do however still follow the discussions and there was some quite interesting comments today in this thread about book values and when to sell stocks.

I guess it is all about your time horizon. Shawfund might have a great return by buying and selling great stocks at every weakness or strength. It doesn't work for me though.

I am a quite primitive investor. I believe it is all about predicting the earnings one or two years out in the future. If you look at stock like CKCM, KOMG and NFI they are all down today and their technical picture is not pretty. But they are ridiculous cheap if you look at their earnings and their growth. Now the truth is that all of them can fall additional 10% or even 20%.

If I had followed Merrill Lunch advice I would have sold everyone of them already. But I would also have sold AOB at 2.35, VPHM at 6.9 and SVA at 4.15.

As said I am a quite primitive investor. I am unfortunately sure that we will have an outbreak of Bird Flu in the next one to two years (so is WHO) and I think that the stock price of SVA will post a significant increase as a result of this.

I also think that CKCM will continue to benefit from the growth of RFID and that NFI will continue to have a dividend yield of +16% for the coming two years and I also think that KOMG who are not able to produce enough to meet the demand will do OK in the coming years. I could be wrong but to quote Peter Lynch I only have to be right 60% of the times to have a great return and my return this year is not too bad (and neither was the last three years).

I am a primitive investor. As long as my strategy works I am not going to change it. I know that Merrill Lynch is telling me to Sell and that UBS thinks that every good news from DNDN is an opportunity to short. Cramer think that the vaccine plays are ready for a reversal etc. etc. etc. etc.

Well I believe that I am the best person to take care of my interests and I honestly believe that I know as much about evaluating companies as Cramer (in his ridiculous lightning rounds!!!) or a so-called analyst with UBS (with a past career as a sales representative) so I am going to Stay with CKCM, KOMG and NFI. I am down approximately 5% on these shares but I am up 500% on VPHM, 300% on AOB, 100% on SVA so I can afford to wait.

It is probably not the smartest things to do - but it works.

I will put a short stop on this stock to keep my profit from rolling right back down the roller coaster ;D

Jesus, terrific posts on this SVA thread  :) Probably SVA's rise is inspiring you guys ... I feel I don't need to say much today, SVA continues to climb at a torrid pace and I still hold it.

My take on the Avian Flu is slightly different from Michael's. I don't know if it will spread to humans  or not (I hope it doesn't), but I see demand for these company's products either way. Also, like every theme stocks, when the speculation is over they will come down like a rock.

I believe SVA still has a lot of room to grow but I'm not a long term investor on the company. I will hold for as long as the trend is bullish, and when that's over, I'll sell it for whatever profit I have. You see, the revenue and earnings peek for the company can be two or three years from now, and yet the stock price peek can be just a month or two into the future ...

For now I'm glad that the stock, coming up from $1.65 in June 2005, has decisively broke the  $5 level (it seems that most stocks coming from below $2 to above $5 stall there, maybe because many brokers only allow stocks to be shorted when they are above $5 !)

Probably SVA was heavily shorted when it first came above $5, but it seems those bears where wrong and now they need to buy to cover, adding fuel to the rise ...

I agree with Michael when he says that these big winners are the ones that bring us above average returns, so one needs to let the profits grow for them to turn big. That's what I will continue doing with SVA, holding for as long as the trend remains bullish.

Great day with SVA (and AOB and HOM)!

I think a fair value of SVA without Avian Flu is $1B, based on its chinse FDA approved Influenza Flu (not bird flu), when its 20M capacity is announced. This gives the stock $25+, within a year. I am a patient investor like Michael. :-)

Why are these being posted here  ???

The SVA board is in 3SOF.  I just think it is easier to avoid confusion if posts are held within one thread, and especially for 3SOF stocks.  Otherwise things just start to get too confusing with duplicate threads etc.  It's a good idea to at least try look for existing threades before posting about a stock.

Just my thoughts  :)

Applause to Defenderyou, as his mention of BCRX brought this issue to my attention -- I was too late for its full run yesterday, but saw an 8% return!

There's much that's shaky about BCRX -- I suspect it will be a possible short candidate in the near future -- but the market is never wrong.

Good message from Michael.

Fundamental is the most important in buying stocks.

I will have a look of the three stocks CKCM, KOMG, and NFI and may take a position when the stocks turns bullish.

Also IDSY is a pure play for RF application, UP 100% in few months, big up and down.

For me no matter how good a company seems, I will always keep one sell rule: out when the stock is down 7% from my purchase price, sometime much less if I feel not comfortable after the purchase.

You never know whether a company is cheating on you or not.

I have another trading rule:

After you sell for a loss and you believe that the company you just sold presents a good investment opportunity, keep a close eye on it and look for another buying point, like David did on JDSU.

Few years back, I bought CCK at $5.3 (June 2001) thinking it was a turnaround story (already down 90% from $57). But it dropped as low as $0.80 later on.

Next year it went up to $12.00. I made 100% return on it but this is really high risk (I lost 85% during the process). It may never rebound or if I sold it at $4.96 for 7% loss and bought it later at $1.00, it will be a 1200% return.

Thanks for this Shawfund:

QuoteI have another trading rule:

After you sell for a loss and you believe that the company you just sold presents a good investment opportunity, keep a close eye on it and look for another buying point, like David did on JDSU.

Few years back, I bought CCK at $5.3 (June 2001) thinking it was a turnaround story (already down 90% from $57). But it dropped as low as $0.80 later on.

Next year it went up to $12.00. I made 100% return on it but this is really high risk (I lost 85% during the process). It may never rebound or if I sold it at $4.96 for 7% loss and bought it later at $1.00, it will be a 1200% return.

Everyday I scan the entire market and run the previously owned stocks looking for buying opportunities. The previously owned 3 SOF stocks are all breaking down heavily. And on my filters I could only see rebound candidates, not a single stock breaking out to new short term highs with volume above average.

This is why I only have 18% of the portfolio invested at this point. My performance looks like it is starting to peek, around 150 to 160% since April 2005. I feel I should now go almost completely into cash, wait for the dust to settle and prepare to have a part of the portfolio in short positions, say, no more than 25% like one of our members suggested.

I see stocks with good and bad fundamentals breaking supports and initiating downtrends. If the attractive fundamentals were already discounted by the market, those stocks can go down too.

On SVA I have a 66% open profit and the chance to put the 3 SOF Portfolio at its high. I'm afraid people will sell their profits to balance their losses elsewhere, like I'm about to do today.

I will sell SVA today because of deep general market weakness that will probably take all boats down now, specially those where people have huge short term profits. I'll look to buy it back again at lower levels (below $5).

If somebody would like to receive the 27 slides UBS SVA presentation from 26th of September, please contact me!
>:D

I still hold SVA and will continue to hold it as long as it keeps its uptrend. It held pretty well during this down week and its going higher today. All I am doing is riasing my trailing stop loss, keeping it a little lower than the trendline.I would like to post the chart but I don't know how its done (don't know how the other members post the charts)

Gang:

EMFP - this a bird flu stock related and a penny stock candidate I think.  Actually its into filtration masks - I dont normally deal in pennies, but I came across this on some bird flu related msg boards and thought it might be of interest to some of you. Do your own DD: I dont know how to paste a chart in - so I am including the url to see the chart. Its well thought of by some savy investors I communicate with on some msg boards.

David - what do you think?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=emfp,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb200!b50!f][vc60][iut!Uc20!Lb14]&pref=G

Hi Randstory,

Would you give an update on these picks (as well as anything you find interesting now). 

Bird flu victims face forced quarantine
http://news.scotsman.com/health.cfm?id=2095992005

RICHARD GRAY AND JEREMY WATSON
HEALTH CORRESPONDENT

DRACONIAN measures to forcibly examine and quarantine human victims of the deadly bird flu strain spreading across the world have been introduced by the government as scientists confirmed yesterday the virus had now appeared in mainland Europe.

Laboratory tests carried out in Britain have identified the virus that has killed wild birds in Romania's Danube delta as the H5N1 strain that has devastated flocks in Asia, killing more than 60 people.

All vehicles entering and leaving the infected Romanian region are now to be disinfected and checkpoints have been set up on roads entering the area. Exports of eggs and poultry were banned.

It also emerged a Scots poultry farm was sealed off after some hens fell ill with a suspected bird virus. Castleton Farm, near Stewarton, Ayrshire, was cordoned off as tests for Newcastle disease and Avian flu were carried out but it was reopened yesterday after they came back negative.

Health experts fear if the bird flu virus mutates into an infectious human strain then millions of people around the world could die.

Emergency contingency plans drawn up by the Scottish Executive and the Department of Health in June to deal specifically with the new threat estimate that between 4,500 and 64,000 Scots could die if an outbreak struck in this country.


The report reveals that health boards will be given the power to seek orders from sheriffs to force people they suspect of being infected to have a medical examination and they could be detained in hospital.

Local authorities could also ban individuals from going to work and children would be forbidden from attending school or places of entertainment if they had been exposed to infection.

New criminal offences could also be created in which people knowingly exposing others to the risk of infection could be prosecuted.

The report said the provisions would be possible under powers given to local authorities by the Public Health Acts. It said: "Key provisions include powers to seek orders from a justice of the peace (sheriff in Scotland) requiring a person to be medically examined and to be removed to and detained in hospital."

Infection control experts last night confirmed these powers were likely to be used in the early stages of an outbreak.

Dr Jim McMenamin, a consultant epidemiologist at Health Protection Scotland, said:

"The contingency plans outline a range of social and medical measures.

"These powers are in place today and available to us tomorrow and it would depend on the level of illness in the population as to which emergency powers would be brought in."

Good to see that 3SOF finally have a bird flu stock in the portfolio - just a shame it is not the best one  ;)

Nothing can wake the interest of the investment community more than if a potential disaster is close to home.

People can die in the thousands in Africa or Asia but if a dead duck is found in Romania with Bird Flu people stand up and listen. The Investment community is really strange - imagine when the first bird is found in US ???

The good news is that it finally seems like the rest of the world has found out that we might face a potential disaster and the capitalistic system do what they are best at and that is throwing money at the problem. All vaccine stocks had a great day today. SVA increases 19% under record volume.

I still believe SVA is the best vaccine play. As mentioned a couple of days ago the Chinese government has refused to share samples of new bird flu strains with the rest of the world. As said then: you can only wonder who's commercial interests they are protecting.

Saturday Reuters gave the answer:

QuoteChina says it has a better vaccine for bird flu

BEIJING (Reuters) - China has developed a new and better vaccine for use on birds against the avian influenza strain that scientists fear could cause a global pandemic among humans, state media said on Saturday.

The vaccine had the advantage of fighting another common bird disease, as well as the H5N1 influenza strain that has spread from Asia to Europe, state television reported. It identified this as avulavirus APMV-1, also known as Newcastle disease.

"What's more, the new vaccine is safer, more convenient to use and cannot kill new born chicks," it said, listing attributes that made it more attractive to farmers than a vaccine they were already using.

I think it is only a matter of time before SVA is trading significantly higher:

Hi Michael,
I have corrected my mistake from friday, I have bought back SVA (6.8$) and NVAX (2.63$).
Missed one dollar per share with my SVA sold last thursday. :'(
In total my overall profit is awesome  ;D
cheers
O.

I do think that SVA is the best in the bird flu group. Now that bird flu is found in Greece, I think there should not be any problem for SVA to reach $10 or higher by the time it presents before WHO in 2 weeks.


-Louis

Got to agree that SVA still has a long way to run in this whole (unfortunate) bird flu story. Todays action took SVA over it's all time high of $6.95 set 2004, so not only is it on fire due to the whole story playing out it also technically is now in blue sky territory having set new absolute highs. I took profits on 1/3rd of my SVA holding today purely because of the size of my position relative to  my overall port, otherwise I am letting this one run. By the way last time SVA ran to this level it immediately started giving it all back, however now I think the momentum, story, volume is too much for that to happen again
Michael is quite right about the reaction to a bird dying in Romania versus human catastrophes in Africa, that is indeed a sad indictment of our world. A dead bird in America will definately invoke HUGE reaction.

Weekly Chart:

I'm ashamed I sold SVA, not following my initial plan. Some of the fault is the way the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio performance is calculated, with just the closed deals counting for the calculus.

Anyway, I've made a mistake when I sold SVA. I need to correct that mistake, recognize that SVA is probably one of the best holdings a speculator can have at this moment (it is still very undervalued, as someone said, «it is worth at least a billion») and buy it back today.

Of course I wish we had kept SVA, but on the day I sold last week I didn't have much faith in stocks.  My concern now is will this thing shoot up at the open and then fall back down?  Is 6.5 in its future?

This is the best in terms of fundamentals in the bird flu group (i.e. AVII, NVAX, HEB). It never made any daily press release like others did about bird flu. Its approved drugs (Hep-A/B and normal flu) should put it in $1B market cap. No hype here, it's just worth $25/shr based on products without bird flu, unlike others are just about bird flu.

It is invited to present its bird flu result to WHO in 2 weeks.

David,

You mentioned that you would buy back SVA today. What are price are you planning to buy it back at?  :D

Quote from: eggman11 on October 18, 2005, 10:32:38 AM
David,

You mentioned that you would buy back SVA today. What are price are you planning to buy it back at?  :D

Hi eggman11,

We bought it @ 7.75 on the open.
You can see our entry prices here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php

Whenever we recommend a new pick for our portfolio, we usually buy at / or near the opening by default, unless instructions otherwise.

Best regards !

anybody else getting scared by today's performance?  ???

Maybe it is jsut some proft taking, people are not trying to be too greedy !

Having a look at the chart, I think SVA is retracing and should get a low touch of support, around 6.60, late today or tomorrow - should rebound from there.

Yesterday SVA's price action broke out of its all time of 6.95 which occured last year. Todays price action came down to test that price to have a low of 6.95 today. I wasn't surprised to see profit taking with such a steep advance and making an all time high. Like scottish said i see support in the 6.60 area as well and the gap hoping not to get filled on a close below 6.40. With such strong momentum on heavy volume i don't think we will see that gap get filled for a long time or until all this bird flu hype has calmed down. What I'd like to see happen is price action staying above of its all time high of 6.95  :). Im in at 6.00 and nibbled a little bit more today before the close at 7.16.

The Red uptrend line that is following price action as of now is rising at 12.9 cents/day

Quote from: danman3459 on October 18, 2005, 02:16:45 PM
anybody else getting scared by today's performance? ???

I wouldn't be to worried danman, have patience, yet maintain discipline........

Good luck all holders  ;D

-fousc

My theory on today's sell off:

After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated.  There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions.  This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.

If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back.

Good trading!

On the daily chart there is a bearish divergence in RSI vs stock price for SVA -- RSI making a lower high while the stock price made a higher high. Using this metric though, one would have sold at $6 so maybe there is still more upside left. Or it may truly be a signal to go short. I see $4 as the eventual target on a retrace. Tough with these momo's though cause maybe it goes to $15 first.

Bird flu :-\

Vaughn

«At least a billion». The current market cap for SVA is $270.48M, so solely based on the billion assumption, the stock should rise to $26.51  :o

Now, is SVA worth a billion dollars? I was reading some information from their 10-Q:

«Sinovac  specializes  in the  research,  development  and  commercialization  of
vaccines for infectious  diseases such as hepatitis A,  hepatitis B,  influenza,
Avian Flu Influenza and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ("SARS").  The Company
aspires to become a leader in China's  biotech  industry.  Working  closely with
Chinese  public  health  agencies,  the  Company  focuses on  manufacturing  and
marketing  human-use  vaccines  and  related  products,  as  well  as  providing
technical and consulting services.  Sinovac is the first company in the world to
have been  granted  permission  to  conduct  human  clinical  trials  for a SARS
vaccine.»

«The overall  strategic mission of the Company is to become a world leader in the
research and development,  manufacturing and  commercialization  of vaccines for
epidemic viruses such as hepatitis and influenza,  and for fast-emerging viruses
such as SARS and Avian Flu Influenza (a.k.a. "bird flu").

The Company believes that it is possible and financially viable to provide safe,
efficient  vaccines  to all  countries  regardless  of wealth.  Through  careful
financial management,  low production costs and modern,  innovative  techniques,
the  Company   intends  to  continue  to  produce  high  quality   vaccines  and
successfully  service market sectors that many pharmaceutical  giants are unable
to service.

The following represents the Company's objectives for 2005:

o    Increase  hepatitis A vaccine  (Healive(TM))  sales and revenues;  initiate
     sales of it's combined hepatitis A / B vaccine  (Bilive(TM));  and sales of
     its  influenza  flu vaccine  (Anflu(TM)).  To  accomplish  this  objective,
     Sinovac will:

     >    Expand the size of its sales force and conduct sales training

     >    Enhance brand  awareness  through  Chinese  media (news,  professional
          publications, and advertising)

     >    Conduct  and  participate  in  promotional  activities   (conferences,
          seminars, VIP visits to Company facilities)

o    Commence sales of Bilive(TM) in China (the SFDA approved Bilive(TM) January
     7, 2005)

Gain SFDA approval for Anflu(TM)  production facility and commence sales in
     China

o    Complete  the  Summary  Report on Phase I clinical  trial on SARS  vaccine;
     entering  Phase II clinical  trials will depend on the SFDA's  approval and
     requirements statement

o    Continue new vaccine products  development,  including an avian flu vaccine
     with the China Centre of Disease Control and Prevention ("China CDC")

o    Register and license  Healive(TM),  Bilive(TM)  and  Anflu(TM)  for sale in
     other developing countries

o    Forge international strategic partnerships to open overseas markets

o    Explore and develop domestic and international R&D and marketing agreements

o    Explore acquisition opportunities»

If Europe and the US need vaccines (specially for the Bird Flu in the short term), just imagine the Chinese ! And SVA is the company best positioned to address this need, with help from the government and all.

Quote from: valueseeker on October 18, 2005, 09:16:56 AM
This is the best in terms of fundamentals in the bird flu group (i.e. AVII, NVAX, HEB). It never made any daily press release like others did about bird flu. Its approved drugs (Hep-A/B and normal flu) should put it in $1B market cap. No hype here, it's just worth $25/shr based on products without bird flu, unlike others are just about bird flu.

It is invited to present its bird flu result to WHO in 2 weeks.

This is valuable information from valueseeker. Since the company is invited for WHO in 2 weeks, I can only see buy the rumor that it is possible for SVA to sell its vaccines not only to the Chinese, but worldwide. I can't see a better place for mass vaccine production than China.

This is all speculation, but as valueseeker says, «a billion» even without the Bird Flu.

So I'm not selling this stock anytime soon, not below $25. It would take a lot of change in the technicals and fundamentals to shake me out now. I'll continue holding SVA for the foreseeable future.

I could post this on NVAX or HEB or SVA. Anyway another Avian outbreak this time in China H5N1 confirmed. This from BBC news.

News news news on Avain stocks and as David has said a bubble will forfm, everyone talking about avian flu and the companies involved in it.



Fresh bird flu outbreak in China
A health worker vaccinates a chicken at a chicken farm May 23, 2005 in Xining, Qinghai Province, China.
China has taken considerable precautions since its first outbreak
China has announced a fresh outbreak of bird flu, saying 2,600 birds have died from the disease in Inner Mongolia.

The deaths, at a farm near the region's capital of Hohhot, were due to the H5N1 strain, which is potentially lethal to humans, the Xinhua news agency said.

China has previously suffered outbreaks of bird flu in Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet, all this year. Thousands of affected fowl have been slaughtered.

Bird flu has killed at least 60 people in Asia since December 2003.

Xinhua said the latest outbreak, in Tengjiaying village near Hohhot, was now under control.

   
H5N1 BIRD FLU VIRUS
Principally an avian disease, first seen in humans in Hong Kong, 1997
Almost all human cases thought to be contracted from birds
Isolated cases of human-to-human transmission in Hong Kong and Vietnam, but none confirmed

Q&A: Avian flu

China's national bird flu laboratory confirmed it was the H5N1 strain, Xinhua said.

No human victims were mentioned in the report - China's bird flu outbreaks have so far only affected its fowl.

Its most recent previous confirmed case was near the Tibetan capital of Lhasa in August, in which 133 birds died and another 2,475 were slaughtered.

A local official told the AFP news agency that the latest outbreak had been detected at a small farm with fewer than 10,000 birds, mainly chickens, geese and peacocks.

News of the outbreak comes as European officials deal with outbreaks in Romania and Turkey.

Scientists fear the H5N1 strain could combine with human flu or mutate into a form that it easily transmissable between humans, triggering a flu pandemic.

well we just got a low touch of 6.63 this morning, which hopefully was our touch on ascending support.  Price appears to have stabilised around 6.80, and may rebuild for an upward push later today, well, at least that's what I'm hoping  ;)

-- Hmm... spoke too soon - currently hitting new low of 6.51 for the day, which may have broken the ascending trendline I was working from - a lot of profit taking, or are traders getting discouraged here?  If it keeps going down, it may not be good...  :-[

the 9-day is about 6.42 and that level is often a good entry point with a stop just below  - the pats low on bo candle about 6.50 so yu may want to try there

Hi, everyboday, this is the first time I post message from Beijing, China.

It is very hard to access this website. Super slow.

Today is the six time I bought SVA at exactly its 9 day EMA ($6.32).

Last time I bought at $5.00 on Oct 7 and sold two days ago at $7.6.

If the stock raised too fast (two big jump), it is time to sell. Always buy at its pull back and at ascending tredline (for me, 9 EMA).

So, I have gained a componded 〉200% on SVA.

By the way, I took a flu vaccine shot today at local hospital. It costed me 92 yuan ($12 US dollars) for the shot. The vaccine is from Spain and it ihas a shortage on vaccine in China.

Everyone in our company in Beijing is required to take the shot.

That is why I bought SVA back tonight in Beijing.

Thanks for the update from China shawfund.  It sounds like you really know how to trade this stock.
Best wishes for your health and trading,   Mike

*DJ CBOE To List BioCryst Pharma, Sinovac Options Thursday   

10/19/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-19-05 1634ET

Apparently options trading on SVA (and BCRX) will commence tomorrow - does anyone here have any idea how this may impact the share price?  According to the Yahoo MBs (which I never listen to) this could mean big things, but comments from anyone that actually knows would help.

Cheers

SVA's all time high of 6.95 is showing strong support. Price action test the high of 6.95 yesterday but failed to have a downside break. Today there was a huge intraday decline that dropped all the way down to test the gap open but was met by the bulls to close back above the prior all time high of 6.98. My chart analysis is posted below.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6986;image)

As well todays first case of the Bird flu was detected in Russia today. With this continueing spread of the virus i see no place to go but up for most of the bird flu stocks.

Heres the PR:

Bird flu detected in birds near Moscow
Deadly strain also found in second location in Romania

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The bird flu virus has spread to western Russia, with the deadly H5N1 strain reportedly detected in initial tests in the Tula region south of Moscow, where hundreds of birds have died.

The Russian daily Vremya reported that 247 chickens, geese and ducks on a farm in the Russian village of Yandovka had died due to a severe viral infection between Friday and Monday, according to a report on The Wall Street Journal Web site.


The case, if confirmed, would be the first in European Russia, the Journal reported. The disease had been registered in six regions of Siberia and the Urals region.

And the virus has also been detected in a second location in Romania, the BBC reported on its Web site.

Samples from the village of Maliuc tested positive for the virus. It follows an outbreak in Ceamurlia de Jos, also in Romania's Danube delta.

The spread comes as the European Union begins a two-day exercise to test readiness to deal with a major health crisis, the BBC reported. The E.U. said the exercise was planned 18 months ago, long before the current outbreak of bird flu.

At least 60 people in Asia have died after contracting flu from birds infected by H5N1, but scientists say the disease does not appear able to spread between humans.

The Journal report also said China has confirmed a fresh outbreak of avian influenza in birds in the northern province of Inner Mongolia. Tests confirmed the outbreak at a rare-bird farm in the village of Tengjiaying, near the province's capital of Hohhot northwest of Beijing, was the deadly H5N1 strain, state-run news media reported.

The outbreak has been controlled and hasn't spread to any new locations, the reports by China Central Television and the Xinhua News Agency said

Best of luck to everyone,

-fousc

QuoteToday is the six time I bought SVA at exactly its 9 day EMA ($6.32)

I also bought the 9 EMA bounce, but my plan right now is only to hold it another day or two. This plan can change on a moment's notice of course, but like I said in my post last night, there are some bearish rumblings in the chart so I'm not going to fall in love with it.

Bird flu, global pandemics, peak oil, global warming, hyperinflation, dirty bombs, bioterrorism, mad cow.... there's so much fearmongering these days. Anyone else getting tired of it?  >:(

Quotethere's so much fearmongering these days. Anyone else getting tired of it?  Angry

Unfortunately people seem to thrive on bad news (well at least the media reinforces that by mostly only displaying bad news)
I also added to my core SVA holding today on the pullback, no brainer really. The weekly chart is still very strong and consequently any dip to support on a daily basis is a sure long signal. I have been averaging up on SVA like that and selling positions also as it made big moves upwards.
So until I see my weekly chart giving sell signals and / or daily chart breakdown I will continue to play it that way.
Weekly Chart:

I will add to that the 15 minute daily chart for the last 5 days.

As we can see, today's afternoon rally followed a small ascending trendline that pushed up against resistance at 7.00.  If SVA can break that tomorrow, then it should be pretty easy sailing up to 7.60 (with small resistance around 7.20).

Just watch for any breakdown below this ascending trendline tomorrow - I think that would signal a downward move.  Just my thoughts having just discovered 15 min and hourly charting  ;D

QuoteJust watch for any breakdown below this ascending trendline tomorrow - I think that would signal a downward move.  Just my thoughts having just discovered 15 min and hourly charting

Hey Scottish, good luck with following your newly found chart timeframes ;) A word of caution though. SVA is in a big long term uptrend and has been breaking new ground consistantly for many weeks now (nearly 9 in fact). Be aware that your intraday chart (of whatever time period it may be) will give multiple exit type signals if you draw any type of trendline on it as that is the nature of intraday charts, they are very noisy. If you are trading SVA based on intraday / day moves then sure that type of time frame is very valid, if you are trying to run with SVA over a longer period the intraday tick chart will likely cause you to stop out due to intraday price fluctuations that do not invalidate the overall trend.

For what it's worth I use a combination of weekly, daily and 5 minute charts to look for entry and exit signals / setting stops, trends, indicators, averages etc. That way I am able to build a multi-dimensional view of what a particular stock is doing and therefor my trading plan of it.

Good luck

Good Morning !

David will not be able to post the regular daily updates today. But he gave me instructions to Hold this position on SVA.

I'll just post an updated chart.

I bailed on the position I took yesterday near the 9 ema. Breakeven trade. I am not enthused by the way it's closing. I think SVA has caught a touch of the bird flu  ;D The traders who were buying the dips to the 9 ema in days past seem to have disappeared today. Where did they go? It looks like this will be the first close below the 9 ema in three weeks. Had my finger on the "sell short" trigger but refrained. I'm thinking there might be a bounce at the open tomorrow that would present a better shorting opportunity. If I short it will probably be a quick trade (time frame: a few days). Longer term this chart is bullish.

QuoteJust watch for any breakdown below this ascending trendline tomorrow - I think that would signal a downward move.  Just my thoughts having just discovered 15 min and hourly charting  Grin

Interesting time frames for charting scottish i'd like to hear how that works out for you.

SVA's price action broke below its all time high of 6.95 today to close near yesterdays low at 6.40 which is also the beginning of the gap open. So it appears there is some resistence to not fill that gap. Tomorrow the ascending trendline stands at 6.22, a close below there and i'm bailing out. Hopefully we will see a nice rally tomorrow and get the sentiment back on our side.

-fousc

FYI  ;D
SVA: Short Interest UP 105.0% to 256.9K in Oct 2005
Thursday , October 20, 2005 16:17 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX: SVA) INCREASED 105.0% to 256,856 shares for the month ended mid-October, 2005.

SYMBOL  SEPTEMBER         OCTOBER       CHANGE    %CHANGE      DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
SVA              125,319         256,856        +131,537      +104.96%           1

Based on SVA's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,525,930, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Today was my first time testing it, but what I realised is that it is too difficult to use intraday charts effectively during the day if they are not realtime (well they're not for me at least).  Also, I spend far too much time pouring over my computer screen trying to figure out what the next incremental move is gonna be.  Basically, I don't think I'm ready to be a daytrader.  :P

I think they can be good for identifying short term moves and minor resistance/support at the open or during the day, for instance, today SVA attempted a break out of the little ascending triangle, failed, and fell through the ascending trendline, signalling it was heading south, which it did.  However, I didn't trade on it and still hold SVA.  As you mentioned, I think 6.40 should show strong support, but a break below that will signal a trend lower, at least as far as I can see it, and this would be more than I want to take.

I will post today's here, but after this I think I'll stop posting intraday charts - 3SOF is more about position and swing trades, and as David says, he doesn't consider intraday signals.  I may coninue to use them to try and identify entry/exit points, but I don't think my trading system or nerves are up for making a go of this wholesale - far too many "shoulda woulda coulda's" to handle.

Hi,
<<I will post today's here, but after this I think I'll stop posting intraday charts>>.....please reconsider!  your intraday charting is excellent & helpful.

good fortune to you...

willey

Scottish....I agree with willey: Your daily inputs - and very hard work - is appreciated!

I agree about your comment on intraday movements...usefull for trying to pick up something at a good price.
I also agree with David's thoughts of NOT looking at the intraday, as there can be a lot of movement there, causing panic. ( I'm trying to controll myself there in the panic-department! ;))

Keep up the good work!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4362864.stm

Roche to license bird flu drugs

Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche has asked generic drug firms to help speed up the manufacture of a key anti-viral ahead of a feared bird flu pandemic.
Demand has soared for the drug Tamiflu, which works against the H5N1 avian flu strain causing concern at the moment.

"We will have much more Tamiflu available than if Roche produced it itself," said New York Senator Charles Schumer after talks with Roche.

The firms Teva, Barr, Mylan and Ranbaxy aim to start production within a month.

'In a timely manner'

"Roche has agreed to meet with these companies as soon as possible, as early as next week, and to meet with additional companies which might also be interested in making Tamiflu," said Mr Schumer after his meeting with George Abercrombie, head of Roche's US operations.

Roche is keen to ensure the generic drug firms are able to produce sufficient quantities of Tamiflu before they grant them a license to do so.

"We want to be sure that they can produce substantial amounts of Tamiflu for pandemic use in a timely manner in accordance with appropriate quality specifications, safety and regulatory guidelines," the company said.

Demand for the drug is by far outstripping demand, even though Roche has doubled production every year for three years.

By next summer, the company will have boosted its output eightfold when compared with 2004.

Forty governments have placed massive orders to protect their populations in case the bird flu virus mutates into a form where it poses a serious threat to human health.

Companies are also placing orders to protect their workforce.



http://www.washtimes.com//business/20051020-105955-8323r.htm

The maker of Tamiflu yesterday agreed to increase supplies of the flu drug and negotiate potential production deals with four manufacturers.
    Hoffman-La Roche Inc., the Nutley, N.J., subsidiary of Swiss drug company F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., agreed to meet with the companies to discuss licensing Tamiflu production to meet high demand for the drug.
    Tamiflu, which is manufactured only by Roche, is considered to be the only viable drug treatment against a possible bird-flu pandemic.
    "Roche has graciously stepped up to the plate, and has essentially agreed to share its technology and the rights to manufacture this drug with other companies who are willing to help out," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, who has pressured Roche to license production of the drug to meet worldwide demand.
    Sens. Schumer and Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, met with Roche President and Chief Executive George Abercrombie yesterday to discuss licensing Tamiflu production.
    "We discussed with them our previously announced intentions to meet with companies that may be able to assist in manufacturing additional supplies of Tamiflu," Mr. Abercrombie said.
   He would not say when Roche would meet with the other drug companies: Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd., Barr Laboratories Inc., Mylan Laboratories Inc. and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.
    Roche's representatives did not return calls for comment.
    Earlier this week, Roche said it would build a new U.S. plant to increase Tamiflu production amid fears of a major bird-flu outbreak.
    Roche also agreed to negotiate "equitable terms" with companies that can produce enough of the drug to meet government demand, Mr. Schumer said.
    The federal government has about 2.3 million Tamiflu doses in storage and plans to have 2 million more by December, with the ultimate goal of stockpiling enough to treat 25 percent of the nation's population, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.
    Concern about the deadly strain of bird flu centers on scientists' fears that it may mutate into a form that passes easily among humans, sparking a pandemic that might kill millions.
    A 48-year-old Thai man became the 67th person known to have been killed by the bird-flu virus, officials said yesterday.
    All the human deaths from avian flu so far have occurred in Asia, but the lethal virus was detected this month in birds in Russia, Turkey and Romania.
    In Brussels yesterday, the European Union adopted fresh measures to fight the virus, banning live birds from markets or exhibitions without permission.

QuoteToday was my first time testing it, but what I realised is that it is too difficult to use intraday charts effectively during the day if they are not realtime (well they're not for me at least).  Also, I spend far too much time pouring over my computer screen trying to figure out what the next incremental move is gonna be.  Basically, I don't think I'm ready to be a daytrader.   :P

I also appreciate your work ScottishTrader. For day trading purposes I would not use stocks, but very liquid futures, as the e-mini SPX futures, but that's a very though game. I only watch the market from 9:00 am to 10 am and from 3:30 pm to 4:15 pm, that is, the opening and the closing action. That's where most volume occurs anyway and I can't analyze intraday data on multiple stocks, my brain would get very tired with infinite analysis and thoughts. Read the Indian philosopher OSHO on this subject if you want.

Good luck and keep up !

QuoteHe would not say when Roche would meet with the other drug companies: Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd., Barr Laboratories Inc., Mylan Laboratories Inc. and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.

All of those 4 companies are too big to get much impact from the sale of Tamiflu. Although it is a positive I don't see it in a way to major impact the stock prices, since these are all multi billion companies.

SVA is the company positioned to supply the vast Chinese market, which apparently is also the one country who needs the most of a vaccine to fight the Bird Flu.

The stock came down on profit taking and my entry timing was awful. Anyway, I still think SVA will jump to $26 in early 2006. I will continue holding SVA without a doubt.

Great action for the shorts.  I hope they cover soon, but probably not.

Wow what is going on with this one? It is getting hammered!

OK guys.  WTF?   :-\

I hold out hope that it will close above the middle trend line.  Good luck longs!

I just got in again in the $5.60 range. I agree with Randolph that this stock has much further to go. There is a lot of money coming out of the energy sector and needs somewhere to go.  Governments across the globe are dealing with this potentially catastrophic epidemic.

China by far is the most exposted at this point and SVA will reap some huge gains from this.  We have seen China plays in the past surge and I have a gut feel this stock will be no different....

I like my entry point.  If it should go down from here and test the 50dma I will average down.

We shall see!!!!!

Apparently that windbag Cramer had a lady call his show last night and ask about SVA and he told her to sell with no further explanation. Of course, all the Cramer lemmings are now selling. Personally I think the guy is a complete gasbag and dishonest to boot ( He NEVER talks about his bad calls) so I've only watched him a few times.
The same goes with BSNBC. They are nothing but cheerleaders, although I must admit I do enjoy listening to Rick Santelli from the CBOT in the AM as he's one of the 2 or 3 guys they have on there that knows what he's talking about. I have to laugh when they have on the so-called "Money Managers" and Mutual Fund stockpickers. What a crock! Before they put them on. they should put their recent track record on the screen and let everyone know how "expert" they really are.
Anyway, I had been out of this stock since we all profited on the first run-up, but Cramer has given me the opportunity to get back in so I can thank the gasbag for that I guess. FWIW, I really don't view this as a bird-flu play. From what I can see they have much more to offer, and while I think David's $26 target is a bit optimistic, There is no doubt that this stock is going up. Off to Ireland for a week or so tomorrow so-- All the best.
 Irish

So Cram'er sets up another buying op.

Good Trading All!

SVA went to trend line and this is also the 38% retrace so good chance of bounce here

(http://xs51.xs.to/pics/05425/sva2110.jpg)

Places like this are low risk entries as you put your stop a bit below so if it fails you are out and then wait for another  setup -

I'm happy to be back in SVA. In @ 5.66 With half the number of shares as the previous run up, but happy nonetheless. Doubled my money, the best % increase next to OXFV since I've been a member of 3Stocks. My wife was upset that I sold last time. {still glad I did}. Sold @6.25

Cramers for entertainment.  He mocked himself in a big way on Joe s and shld.  Put the symbol on his forehead on a post it note during the lightning round.  Can't say he doesn't say when he is misses.

I also bought 2000 more SVA at 5.70 today.  I will feel better when it goes back up as I am holding a boatload of SVA now.

I think it has a good future. I probably would have walked away from it but it seems that Dave Randolph also thinks it is worth alot more. Hope it goes back up soon!

Anyone else have any thoughts on SVA?

I bought 5000 more todat too at 5.60 having bought 5000 yesterdat at 6.43; now I have 15k and hoping! Find it interesting way NVAX and SVA are almost negatively correlated (own that too) and this same pattern happened last week I think before SVA went up from mid 5s to mid 7s

Good luck

I wonder if the same daytraders are jumping from SVA to NVAX and visa versa? I have 7500 SVA...

I also hold NVAX and wish I would have bought more. NVAX has alot going for it also.

Technically we've seen a spike week that failed to close above the all time high of 6.95 on a weekly chart. On a daily chart we did have a close above 6.95. Though increasing shorts and sell orders came in a pummled the bulls. Volume and the interest in this stock is much greater now then it was last year when it met that point so i wont be surprised to see price action head back up north above 6.95. This is the first down week of the uptrend since David first purchased this stock so hopefully we won't see a continuing downtrend. Hard to believe we will see it go down too much farther with the fast spreading bird flu and the demand for a reliable vaccine. I imagine many shorts will be buying to cover soon and longs will being filling positions at these bargain prices. Let us hope next week and the weeks to come will be back in our favor.

regards,

fousc

After bought SVA last week at $6.32, it jumped to as high as $7.21 then reversed.

I sold it at $6.83 during its short term down trend.

One rule: never let your profit done.

I did not have any shares of SVA now. May consider to re-enter it ext week.

I had an awful timing on this SVA second buy. Now we know the stock was overbought and due for a pullback. People had huge short term profits to cash in, and Cramer gave them a motive (a stupid motive, since he gave no reason to sell (http://www.thestreet.com/_mktwrm/funds/lightninground/10248708_2.html)).

I bet many short term traders, looking at the chart with such a steep uptrend, sold the stock short too.

On Friday volume picked up considerably and SVA is near a strong support area. I think it has surpassed the $5 area enough not to go below it again. Shorts will cover and SVA will run away with the bulls again.

I want to go back and focus on this:

«BEIJING, Sep 20, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd (SVA) today announced that it will present at the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) Global Life Sciences Conference; has received a government grant for the development of an avian flu vaccine for humans; and received a USD 4.94 million dollar commercial credit line from a Chinese commercial bank.»

China alone will probably need more avian flu vaccines than Europe and the US combined. SVA is the only player on that field, supported by the Chinese government. SVA will provide vaccines for the entire Chinese market in the near future (for hepatitis and others).

The market cap is just $223M.

I see this stock at $26 in the first half of 2006 and I won't sell for the time being.

Downchannel resistance....

What does down channel resistance mean?

What do you think about SVA's chart today?

SVA has so many news that are not listed by yahoo.  If you are interested, please check this following link, it is a little bit slow though:

http://www.sinovac.com/NewsRoom/News/

I stopped out of SVA today on all my holding (I had a core position and also had added on the way up). I set a tight stop because I think SVA is struggling a bit around $6.30 and I didn't like the MACD Histo signal on my daily chart (stock up today MACD histo negative divergance) and may look to take a pullback to support possibly down near $5. Right now SVA sitting at the middle of bollinger bands (where it has been supported before) For sure I'll buy again if it pulls back to support or if it can break the red downtrend line on this chart.
Good luck

Maybe this news will help the MACD divergence:

Bird flu pandemic 'almost certain'

October 25, 2005
There would almost certainly be a bird flu pandemic, Health Minister Tony Abbott said today.

Mr Abbott, who was meeting with Health Ministers in the Canadian capital Ottawa to discuss bird flu, said it was important that all nations took the threat seriously.

"There will almost certainly be a pandemic at some stage," Mr Abbott said.

"But whether it will be next month, next year, or next decade, we just don't know.

"We do know that there have been three pandemics in the last 100 years.

"The first in 1918-19 was very, very serious indeed. It killed, perhaps, 50 million people around the world, including about 12,000 people in Australia.

"The two subsequent pandemics in the late 1950s and the late 1960s were much less severe. They killed about a million people each around the world, including about 500 each in Australia."

Mr Abbott said the risk of a human strain of bird flu was greatest in south and east Asia which did not keep as careful a watch on poultry flocks as Australia.

Or maybe this latest news:

10/25/2005

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/news/stories/s1490191.htm

China has reported a new outbreak of bird flu, in the eastern province of Anhui.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation says it has been told about the outbreak by China's Agriculture Ministry.

Hundreds of geese are said to have died of the disease, while 45,000 other birds have been culled.

It is the sixth outbreak in China this year and the second in less than a week, following the deaths of 2,600 birds and the culling of 91,000 at a farm in the northern Inner Mongolia region.

Chinese leaders have warned the country faces a "grave" threat from avian influenza, as both Asia and Europe fight to contain the deadly virus.

President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have issued a directive for an all-out effort to prevent the spread of the virus.

China's health and agricultural ministries have responded by intensifying their coordination and strengthening monitoring around the country.

UN sends experts to Indonesia

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation is sending a team of experts to Indonesia to help fight an outbreak of avian flu in the country's poultry flocks.

The aim is to help Indonesia combat the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus at source, by organising a house-by-house search for infected birds.

Indonesia has so far confirmed the deaths of three people from bird flu, while at least six more have died from suspected cases of the virus.

Meanwhile, a British team of experts is due to arrive in Vietnam for a two-day investigation into bird flu.

The six-member team will also head for China and Hong Kong where the first deaths from the virus were reported.

Volunteers mobilised in Thailand

In Thailand, Health Minister Suchai Charoenratanakul says 900,000 volunteers have been assigned to perform house-to-house checks for signs of the virus.

The initiative, to be coordinated by more than 9,700 local health offices, comes as Thailand tries to combat bird flu following the country's 13th death.

Since late 2003, large outbreaks of bird flu have exploded among poultry flocks throughout Asia, leading to more than 60 human deaths.

Millions of chickens and ducks have been culled in efforts to halt the disease's spread.

The World Health Organisation fears the H5N1 strain of bird flu could mutate into a highly contagious form that triggers the next global human flu pandemic.

A mutated bird flu outbreak was blamed for the deaths of as many as 40 million people worldwide in 1918.

Europe calls for complete ban on wild bird imports

The European Commission says it will call for a complete ban on wild bird imports after a parrot died in British quarantine with the virulent H5N1 strain of bird flu.

It is the first time the virus has struck in Britain.

The highly pathogenic strain of H5N1 bird flu that is circulating in poultry and other birds in southeast Asia has now been identified in four countries in the World Health Organisation's (WHO) 52-member European region: Britain, Romania, Russia and Turkey.

Croatia, meanwhile, says an as-yet unspecified strain has killed swans in the country's northeast.

The WHO says Europe is well placed to combat the deadly strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus but it has warned against complacency.

Raymat:  Yes there is awesome news on SVA's website but they are not making it public at this point. That is hurting the stock short term.  I guess I will have to ride it out...It looks like the WHO deligation NISBC visited SVA on 10/15/05. Also, SVA is giving a presentation at WHO on 11/02/05. Many of the investors do not know this yet.

Saffeysite1:  I agree that SVA is in a unique position in Asia to help with the possibility of a pandemic. Long term this stock is awesome. It looks like it may consolidate for awhile as long as there is now SVA specific news and the birdflu stocks are doing well.

brandyjoco,

What is the awesome news on SVA's website, but not public? Can you be more specific? I went to the site, checked the news and don't understand what you're seeing. Thanks.

Zenom,

It is right there on the front page http://www.sinovac.com/ so by definition it is public. I like this part:

QuoteDuring the meeting, Sinovac presented the Company's development on Pandemic Influenza Vaccine (H5N1) and other vaccines. Sinovac described its experience in development of fast production vaccines with reverse genetic technology in new influenza pandemic with mutated strains.

Doesn't help the stock much - I am not too worried though. This is a Chinese stock whatever they say will be met with skepticism. You will have to appreciate the power of 1 billion people putting resources in to solve a global problem before you understand that the $216 million market cap of Sinovac is a steal.

We already know that the Chinese Government is holding back information about new strains of the Bird flu to give their own industry an advantage and that they are paying 100% of SVA's development cost of a Bird Flu vaccine. I am looking at NVAX with admiration but who are sponsoring their development cost and who are providing them with new strains of Bird Flu! I am sorry this really is a no-brainer for me.

Zenom,

Yes, the latest news releases are from the front page of the SVA website:

LATEST NEWS RELEASES   
2005-10-24
NIBSC Delegation Visits Sinovac Biotech Ltd. »
2005-10-24
SARS Vaccine Development Paper Published in Journal of Medical Virology »
2005-10-24
Sinovac Holds 3rd Company Sales Conference »

NIBSC is 'WHO'. It sounds like they are very involved with SVA. Also, SVA will be presenting at the WHO conference on November 2 - I believe.

I was reading the thread and thinking that you already provided all the fundamental information needed to be bullish SVA.

Yesterday it was strange the stock didn't advance with the rest of the Bird Flu group. Probably it had just one day lag, the stock may not be ready yet for another bullish leg up after rising so much over the medium term.

I have time and patience. I agree with Michael when he says the stock is undervalued and I see catalysts to move it sharply higher over the short term - for example, that presentation at the WHO can make the stock explode on the upside, because maybe, just maybe, they may provide vaccines on the Bird Flu to the entire world, not just China.

Technically, strong support is just beneath current prices. We got TL2 at $5.79 and the TEMA indicator at $5.44.

I will continue holding SVA.

I visited SVA's headquarter today and looked at their posters and manufacturing facility.

Will add my positions today and hold it for one year unless:

1. if the stock raised too much in one or two days;
2. if the stock reached the target.

@ Shawfund

Sir,
i would like to hear your sell-targets as mentioned in your last message for this investment.

Thank you
Hasadeur

Ouch.  Where is everyone?

I sold half and then picked up a few thousand shares at $4.91 at the end of the day. Is the uptrend still in intact?

It is a good sign that SVA and HEB still moved up as the group is still strong.

Whoops. I meant to post the above item on NVAX....

you can edit that. please do, it scared the bejebies out of me :D

I bought a position back in SVA yesterday. Although I exited on MACD Histo signal on my daily chart (see post earlier in this thread) the weekly chart still remains strong and giving long signals, also today SVA pushed through the 9ema daily on decent volume (it fell back later in the day) and started to break though a previous downtrend line again on my previous post.
So I am back in SVA, I think I want to hold it whilst this WHO presentation plays out. Support on the chart is close buy so risk is controlled.

SVA: HOLD

Great News for SVA

Sinovac Receives GMP Certification for its Seasonal Influenza Vaccine, AnFlu'TM'
Business Wire - October 27, 2005 08:44

BEIJING, Oct 27, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX:SVA), a leading Chinese biotechnology company in vaccine development and marketing, has announced that the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) issued a GMP (Good Manufacturing Practices) certificate for Sinovac's proprietary influenza flu vaccine, Anflu(TM). The GMP certificate is the final approval required to sell Anflu(TM) vaccine in China (PRC).

Sinovac Director and CEO Mr. Weidong Yin commented "Sinovac continues to implement its business strategy at an ever increasing tempo. Anflu(TM) is the third product our Company has taken from R&D to sales, and we have avian flu and Japanese Encephalitis vaccines in the pipeline."

Anflu(TM) is a modern split flu type vaccine, which typically does not produce side effects. Therefore, Anflu(TM) is much better suited to inoculating children and seniors (the two groups most at risk from influenza).

Anflu(TM) is produced in a new manufacturing facility with a full production capacity of 2 million doses of flu vaccine per year. The Company plans to build a much larger manufacturing facility of this type once it obtains financing.

Since the majority of vaccinations in China occur in September and October, Management expects Anflu(TM) will become a driver for sales in 2006.

Sinovac's successful development of a seasonal influenza vaccine is a key element in technological transfer to the research and development of pandemic influenza vaccine (H5N1). Currently, this vaccine development is in preclinical stage. Receiving GMP certification for Anflu(TM) will act as a catalyst for Sinovac's pandemic influenza vaccine (H5N1) development.

About Influenza

Influenza is caused by a virus that attacks mainly the upper respiratory tract - the nose, throat and bronchi, and rarely the lungs. In the very young, the elderly and people suffering from medical conditions such as lung diseases, diabetes, cancer, kidney or heart problems; influenza poses a serious risk. In these people, the infection may lead to severe complications of underlying diseases, pneumonia and death.

Influenza rapidly spreads around the world in seasonal epidemics and imposes a considerable economic burden in the form of hospital and other health care costs and lost productivity.

The genetic makeup of influenza viruses allows frequent minor genetic changes, known as antigenic drift, and these changes require annual reformulation of influenza vaccines.

The most recent pandemics are thought to have arisen in China which has become known as the "epicenter" for the origin of pandemic influenza viruses. The 1957 epidemic (H2N2) became known as the "Asian Flu" pandemic. The 1968 (H3N2) pandemic became known as the "Hong Kong flu".

Vaccination is the principal measure for preventing influenza and reducing the impact of epidemics.

About Sinovac

Sinovac Biotech Ltd. is a world leader in the research, development, manufacture and commercialization of vaccines for endemic and pandemic viruses such as hepatitis and influenza, and for fast emerging viruses such as SARS and avian influenza (bird flu). The Company's objective is to provide Chinese children with the best vaccines in the world, and let children in the world use vaccines made in China.

you would think price action would be heading north............waaaaaaaaaaay north on news like this  ???

-fousc

I was counting on that...and my S/L got triggered!  >:(

I really don't know what's going on.

::)

Im sorry if someone already mentioned this, but is it true about a little girl that had jsut died in china due to the Bird FLU.  i thought we would see a bit of panic buying today.

this is important news (quoted from yahoo board):

French, Chinese firms plan avian flu vaccine trials here

Aim to conduct human tests on at-risk groups

French and Chinese pharmaceutical giants plan to conduct H5N1 vaccination trials on health care workers, poultry farmers and kids in Thailand, considered to be at-risk groups for bird flu infection, the Public Health Ministry's Medical Sciences Department revealed yesterday. France's Sanofi Pasteur and China's Sinovac Biotech were interested in jointly conducting the bird flu vaccine experiments on humans with the ministry.

The companies also disclosed plans to establish avian influenza production factories here, said chief of Medical Sciences Paijit Warachit.

`We have been talking with both countries. We might work with the French company [on vaccination trial projects] if we are confident about the safety of the Thai volunteers,'' he said.

The ministry has asked Japan to produce 30,000-100,000 doses of an avian influenza virus for humans and is expected to start Thailand's first bird flu vaccination trial in the middle of next year.

However, Public Health Minister Suchai Charoenratanakul said close surveillance and rapid diagnosis were still the most effective ways to control the virus.

He ordered local public health volunteers and the ministry's rapid response teams to step up their monitoring operations and to educate the public about bird flu prevention.

Thailand has confirmed 19 cases of bird flu with 13 fatalities since the first human case was confirmed on Jan 23. All of the victims lived in remote areas and had close contact with sick poultry.

There are 800,000 local public health volunteers working in villages nationwide and 1,300 surveillance and rapid response teams checking on suspected cases.

The Public Health Ministry has also prepared to stockpile 300 tablets of the anti-viral drug Oseltamivir, the generic name for Tamiflu, 50 rapid test kits and 500 masks at provincial hospitals.

The ministry yesterday put 1,228 people with flu-like symptoms under observation. There are no suspected bird flu cases on the list at the moment.

Nirundorn Aungtragoolsuk, director of the Livestock Department's Disease Control Bureau said about 300,000 poultry, including 280,000 quail, 27,000 broilers and about 1,000 native chickens, have been culled since the ``third wave'' of bird flu outbreak started on July 5.

In a weekly report submitted to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), the department said there had been a total of 64 positive cases confirmed in eight provinces in the central region of Thailand. All cases were poultry raised free-range or in farms with traditional methods where there was poor sanitation and insufficient biosecurity measures.

Meanwhile, in Buri Ram, livestock officials have been keeping a close watch on around 200,000 fighting cocks, which are usually moved from place to place by their owners for competitions.

Officials have begun issuing ``passports'' to fighting roosters to keep track of them.

Fighting cocks without passports would be banned from being moved outside the province. Provincial officers also temporary closed three cock fighting pits and banned cock fighting competitions.

In Chiang Mai, residents have been put in a state of panic over the spate of deadly H5N1 infections. A vocational school in Muang district was closed for two days after a rumour that a fried chicken vendor at the school's canteen had been infected with bird flu.

In Bangkok, Governor Apirak Kosayodhin said the capital is free of H5N1.

The governor visited several chicken and fighting rooster farms but not the chicken farm on Soi Thamrongwinitchai where 20 chickens were found dead.


link: http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/28Oct2005_news11.php

boom boom chica boom......boom chica...... well my name is fousc and im here to say, Heres a technical breakdown of SV....A boom boom chica boom.....boom chica....

lol uhhhhhh huh....... yah tell me that was just about the stupiest thing you've ever heard. I'm little delierious after todays market action so don't mind me.

Well anyways, todays price action came down and tested the ascending trendline in the semi-log scale. Hopefully its just a retest and we won't see it drop below that line. The semi-log trendline stands 6.17 tomorrow and is rising at .074/day.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=7567;image)

In the linear scale the ascending trendline is not so steep rising at .053 /day and is farther away from price action. Tomorrow the ascending trend stands at 5.15 in the linear scale.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=7568;image)


Good luck longs,

-fousc

You had me laughing fousc

(http://mdteague.com/cornholi.gif)

JUST OUT IN BANKOKPOST TODAY FRIDAY:

HERE IS SUMARY:

H5N1 VIRUS PREVENTION PHARMACEUTICAL GIANTS EYE THAILAND

French, Chinese firms plan avian flu vaccine trials here

Aim to conduct human tests on at-risk groups





POST REPORTERS
French and Chinese pharmaceutical giants plan to conduct H5N1 vaccination trials on health care workers, poultry farmers and kids in Thailand, considered to be at-risk groups for bird flu infection, the Public Health Ministry's Medical Sciences Department revealed yesterday. France's Sanofi Pasteur and China's Sinovac Biotech were interested in jointly conducting the bird flu vaccine experiments on humans with the ministry.

The companies also disclosed plans to establish avian influenza production factories here, said chief of Medical Sciences Paijit Warachit.

PLus SVA up to 6.20s in AH on decent volume

Thanks for posting the news. The news posted by aussietrader is not really news, since it is just a normal flu vaccine that everybody knew was going to be approved. This is why the stock came down after the higher open, nothing strange here.

The news posted by la-onda and defenderyou are relevant, but nothing special I believe. Just a possible partnership to make some trials on the Avian Flu.

SVA finally touched its ascending trendline as fousc said. A bit below the trendline we have the TEMA indicator that has supported SVA since July 2005.

I think SVA will rebound from these strong support levels. The trendline stands at $5.93, TEMA indicator stands at $5.58.

Quote from: fousc on October 27, 2005, 06:51:00 PM
boom boom chica boom......boom chica...... well my name is fousc and im here to say, Heres a technical breakdown of SV....A boom boom chica boom.....boom chica....

lol uhhhhhh huh....... yah tell me that was just about the stupiest thing you've ever heard. I'm little delierious after todays market action so don't mind me.

fousc,

lol.  Thanks for the laugh.

Quote
Well anyways, todays price action came down and tested the ascending trendline in the semi-log scale. Hopefully its just a retest and we won't see it drop below that line. The semi-log trendline stands 6.17 tomorrow and is rising at .074/day.

I have that trendline coming in lower than your 6.17, at about 5.75, but I find trendline data points difficult to read on the log charts.

Quote
The trendline stands at $5.93

David has 5.93, so we've got different numbers.

At any rate, SVA could have DOUBLE TROUBLE if it takes out yesterday's low 5.75, which was very close to a Hit #5 to the up trendline off the August 19 low, and it was an exact Hit #3 on the linear chart (within 0.008) to the neckline of a possible H&S Top.

Technically, RSI gave a negative divergence on the last push to 7.92, and MACD crossed below its signal line on October 21 when SVA broke below the Bump line (dark blue on chart) of a possible Bump and Run Reversal (BARR).

The heavy volume since late September also is characteristic of the highly speculative nature of the Bump Phase. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 28, 2005, 07:18:28 AM
[At any rate, SVA could have DOUBLE TROUBLE if it takes out yesterday's low 5.75,

Double support at 5.75 broke at 10:42AM.   

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=5&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 28, 2005, 10:56:06 AM

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 28, 2005, 07:18:28 AM
[At any rate, SVA could have DOUBLE TROUBLE if it takes out yesterday's low 5.75,

Double support at 5.75 broke at 10:42AM.   

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=5&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

So what do you expect? Consequences?

Maybe someone dumped a block in order to pick up cheap calls?

Well it made a nice little hammer at the support on 5-min chart at 3.45 area and so far so good..will see if it is now a bottom

http://tinyurl.com/bvatx

wrong thread metro - I think yo meant to post this on NVAX!!!

Not much vol in Calls on yahoo exp over 75 dec 7.5's

Quote from: Se7en on October 28, 2005, 11:19:57 AM
[So what do you expect? Consequences?

Se7en,

I expect the stock to have problems.  I view  that break of 5.75 as a serious
technical violation.

If SVA puts in a hammer today, or even if it went back above the trendline, I
still would sell it, right or wrong.  I won't own stocks that don't respect important
support.

ENER (see chart below), that Cumulina and I discussed the other morning, has a similar
pattern to that of SVA: the Bump and Run Reversal (BARR).

ENER broke support, put in a bullish-looking hammer (see black arrow), even got back
inside the pattern, put in another bullish-looking hammer (see second black arrow) on
Wednesday, but took out both of those lows today.

these bird flu stocks are very volatile, to volatile >:(. Im going to stop this buy high and sell low business.  HOM, NVAX all broke support and came back much higher.  Just like AVII, when i see green on this im selling for the profits. 
I believe all this news that is coming out was forecasted and there fore not making that large of an impact.  other then that has anyone seen a company that might be stepping in over Sinovac territory. 

Quote from: puenthouse on October 28, 2005, 01:52:19 PM
I believe all this news that is coming out was forecasted and there fore not making that large of an impact. 

That reminds me of the market maxim: "When the news is great...it's too late."

In the late spring and through the summer, oil-related issues were the rage.  The price of crude oil continued to climb, but many of the stock issues topped out in early summer.

MPET, for example, rallied 300% in six short weeks, and that was it.  The rally was over.  While crude oil still is above $60, MPET nearly has had a parabolic return to where the rally began (see chart below).

NVAX, for example, has rallied 759% in the same period of time, about six weeks, that MPET rallied.

Although we will hear alot more news about bird flu and about contracts being awarded, etc., when I see a stock like SVA break serious support today, I have at least to consider the possibility that
"the news is great...but, it's too late." 

Agreed Melf Elf.

I sold out of SVA today, for a tidy loss, and I believe David will too.  I may be wrong, but SVA has nroken several support lines in the last couple of weeks, and I just don't feel comfortable with it anymore.  Also have felt overbought in bird flu plays - sure there is the possibility to make a lot on ones like NVAX and HEB, but only if your timing is right, and right now, mine's all wrong.

Better to be done with it and move on.

I just sold all of my SVA at 5.54$!  :-\

Bought more at $5.30. I don't believe we are done with this story, though truly I wish we were. I have a very young child and this whole flu thing is hard to take. Anyway, a quote of some wise words spoken by Michael here on this thread, "just wait until they find a bird in the good old USA". Ok not an exact quote but you get the gist.

Good trading all!

nice, you bought exactly at the low of the day!

You're nothing with IF'S, maybe i can buy it back lower IF it drops next week...

QuoteIm going to stop this buy high and sell low business.

LOL. Easier said than done, my friend. One thing I do these days when I sell a stock is examine it to see if I want to short it too. If you sell a stock because you strongly feel it's going drop more, it makes sense to short it and at least profit a little from that downside. I did that today with SIRI. I sold my long position which I'd held since mid-June for a fat $60 profit ::) Then I took a short position. I hope it gets hammered on earnings next Tuesday like XMSR.

If you sell and go short, you have to accept the possibility it could rebound and hit you with the ol' double whammy - buy high and sell low, then sell low and buy high. When that happens you'll feel "owned" by that stock, but you have to realize it will happen sometimes.

I had SVA on my watchlist to short if it bounced at the open, which it did. Problem is by the time I woke up this morning it had already dropped to 5.50. Hard for me to get up at 0630. At this point I don't think SVA is a great short b/c I think it will bounce at the lower Bollinger band, which is currently at 4.86 but should be at 5.00 or higher on Monday. I will wait for a bounce there and maybe go long there for a quick trade, then hope to short at the top of that bounce for a nice long ride down.

I sadly sold most of SVA a 5.52 (following the crowd I guess).  I really like SVA and think they have a great future.  I will keep my eye on it next week.

I sold by Stop LMT all my SVA today, for a 15% loss.  :(
I didn't expect that my stop at 5.47 can hit today, but it happened. Very hard and fast break of 5.75 support.
But I still believe in SVA future, so I'll see. Maybe I'll buy at the bottom line of Bollinger Bands (4.95-5) with a strong stop under BB.   

Respect to  Melf Elf - his analysis is excellent as usual.

I have posted my two cents about SVA and NVAX on the NVAX post.   But in short, I will not tolerate another 20% loss.  I boght near the top of the last move, Which incresed my risk 10 fold than to benefit.   Inorder to be a successful trader the primary concern must be "Risk Management".  How you plan your trades and to exit if it's not working right away, say 8% stop loss in a bear market.  In a bull market you can wait it out a little longer, but this not the case with this weeks market conditions. 

I have learned and am posting for what I think is a fairly accurate way of predicting good entries and exits based on the fast and slow stoch, as long as volume keeps up.  I feel SVA has a little more faling to do before it settle down to support, perhaps near $5.  THen I will look to enter near there  and in turn have lessened my risk.

Saffeysite,

First of all, applause for your many, many fine posts that I've applauded in the past.  I read ALL of your posts, and really enjoy them.

Secondly, I'd get rid of Stochastics, but that's just my opinion.  No offense whatsoever intended, in fact the opposite: I really respect your hard work.

If you look at your chart that you posted, it gets you out at the end of August, and it doesn't get you back in on the retest of the Ascending Triangle in early September.

Stochastics, like many other indicators, is bounded by zero and 100.  In a bull trend, like SVA was experiencing, you're going to have MANY negative divergences, and things that look like sell signals.

I worked for a long, long time with Stochastics (and similar indicators).  I threw them all out.  I came to realize that they are "bounded" by the mathemetics of "zero to one hundred," and unless the stock consistently "thrusts higher," you're going to get  negative divergences.  That isn't a reason to sell in a bull trend. 

The stock can't possibily keep up that kind of "thrusting momentum," to keep Stochastics thrusting ever higher, if you see what I mean.  It can't possibly go above 100.   But, the stock still can go much, much higher on what appear to be "negative divergences," (or conversely, much. much lower in a downtrend, on what "appear to be" a positive divergences.  It isn't bullish in that later case. 

BRVO is a recent good example of the latter case.  TWO bullish divergences in MACD...but BRVO
still broke below a Symmetrical Triangle on "what appeared to be" TWO bullish divergences, and positive for the stock.  It wasn't.  BRVO went to a new print low for the move at $0.47.

Interestingly, BTW, BRVO now is "champing at the bit," poised for an upside breakout.  (I always thought that it was "chomping at the bit," like "chompiing on the actual bit...no, it's CHAMPING at the bit!).

Always something to learn, isn't there?  Again, thank you for your many fine posts, and please understand that "it's just my opinion" about Stochastics.

BRVO chart below, which I also will post on the BRVO thread.

melfelf, nice post....but IMO, stochastics could be used fairly successfully, only if one knew the timing for their holdings...swing, shor term or long term...

stochastics work brillianly provided you purchase at the low point as saffey pointed out...and then...WAIT. in a ajorty of cases, th stock will rise back up to atleast test the 50 stochastic level...if u r short term or swing trader, impatience migh force you sell it and look for th next ride, but othersie, it;s my opinion that stochastics work well.

oh, by the way...I got into SVA purely for the momentum and speculative play that all bird flu sector plays are...what do u think???

Quote from: vic666 on October 29, 2005, 10:25:57 PM
melfelf, nice post....but IMO, stochastics could be used fairly successfully, only if one knew the timing for their holdings...swing, shor term or long term...

vic666,

If Stochastics works for you, by all means use it.  My experience with it was that it "confused the issue," rather than helped me, which I wanted to share with Saffeysite in case he was experiencing something similar, per my example about the triangle re-test.

Quote
oh, by the way...I got into SVA purely for the momentum and speculative play that all bird flu sector plays are...what do u think???

For me, Friday mornings print of 5.74, below double support at 5.75, is a technical sell, especially after it rallied early to 6.18, then came down fairly quickly (support was broken at 10:42AM).

Once a stock breaks support like that, my reason for owning it no longer is valid, and I would want out of it.  What it's going to do after that is pure guesswork on my part, and wouldn't be of help to you.  My trading plan would have gone wrong, and it's time to sell.  Not honoring sell signals is how small losses turn into big losses.

As far as your trade is concerned, I only would suggest that you have a plan for a stop loss and an exit strategy for where you intend to take profits.

Good luck with your trade, vic!

Agreeance with Melf Elf on the Stochastics. When I first started trading I thought Stochs were the cat's pajamas. Now I don't even look at Stochs at all.

Melf, I always thought it was "chomping" too, but you are correct. Learning correct colloquialisms is an added benefit of a 3SoF membership!! ;D

Champing at the bit
If someone is eager or anxious to do something, they are said to be champing at the bit, (not chomping at the bit. nor chomping on the bit).
CHAMPING: Repetitious, strong opening and closing action of the mouth which
produces sounds when the teeth hit together. Champing in swine may be a
threat signal, but also is performed by boars during courtship and
mating. Definition from Hurnik et al., 1995.

Luke Q

QuoteMy analysis was a bit biased by that $10.56 target. I know there's a psychological thrill to trade with targets, and it has style, but overall it isn't wise. The more our mind concentrates on a specific target or on something that may happen in the future, the more it stops paying attention to what IS happening now.

-- quote from David R. on the NVAX thread.

David, are you reconsidering your $25 target on SVA? I agree trading with targets isn't wise when targets are irrational (i.e. targets that require a 100%+ gains on a stocks that are up 100% already). I think targets are fine when they're more reasonable and based on implied technical targets (i.e. the target calculation for a cup and handle breakout or a target based on a rise to the top of channel or trading range).

David:

I am surprised why you did not sell SVA, as it fell below the TL2 and the other triple exponential MAV you use (TEMA) which you said was at 5.58 and moving higher last time you posted- since we are below that you have not exited? Can you share your reasons why? I am still holding SVA and would have bought more - I had a condition al rtrade on Friday to but more if SVA traded above 5.56 after it fell earlier in the day - and what's most interesting is it traded at 5.56 but not a penny higher - so it seems to be bounded on the upside by the TEMA indicator. Thoughts?

Defender

I just think everyone is selling a little bit prematurely.  Although the logarithmic charts shows that it broke support TL2, the linear chart shows that it bounced off the support TL2.
My hope is that it will rebound tomorrow.........i guess only time will tell. 

I'm also curious what David thinks about the fact that it did close below is TEMA indicator that he uses.

Thanks for all the great analysis on this SVA thread  :)

I really wasn't expecting SVA to break two supports on Friday's session. That happened while the market had a big rally. SVA didn't rise when all the other Bird Flu plays were rising and it didn't rise when the general market did.

The stock shows relative weakness and it broke two supports. I have conflicting information:

1) On one hand I have some fundamental analysis and reasoning that tells me this stock should be worth a lot more.
2) On the other hand I have the market saying «this stock is no good now, the trend is bearish».

From long time personal experience, I know that to achieve superior results over the long term, I should listen and respect the market, not my personal judgement on a stock's value.

I made a 66% profit in SVA in the past. Now it is time to take a 30% loss due to bad timing.

I'll sell SVA around today's open, good luck for those that will continue holding.

  David, I know you stick to a very diciplined trading plan but did you consider at least holding on to SVA through the President's speech on the Avian bird flu. I know we don't know what he is going to say, but at a minimum he will draw more attention to the issue on an executive level and officially illustrate the US's concern.   

This group basically is a story group.

Fundamentally, no earnings, high debt.

It may bounce back this week but  will be short lived.

Shawfund Quote;
October 26, 2005, 08:46:29 AM »
   
I visited SVA's headquarter today and looked at their posters and manufacturing facility.

Will add my positions today and hold it for one year unless:

1. if the stock raised too much in one or two days;
2. if the stock reached the target.

Next Quote;

Quote from: shawFund on October 31, 2005, 07:22:52 AM
This group basically is a story group.

Fundamentally, no earnings, high debt.

It may bounce back this week but will be short lived.

Wow, these are two diverging posts. Don't want to seem too critical here but with all the recent shenanigans on this board you really wonder who to trust. Sorry about singling you out Shawfund, I do follow your posts and respect your work. I am a rookie at this but I do believe the pumpers and the dumpers are seriously infiltrating recently.
That buyer beware slogan rings loud.

uc

I like the CESV story , a good recent PR release

Should be plenty of room for growth since China is very ineffecient with their electricity usage. I forgot where I read that.  Anyways on an unrelated idea

Remember in the 80's and 90's when Diesal fuel was always cheaper than unleaded.  Well the places in China that cannot connect to the electricity grid have to use Diesal generators for their juice.   8)

Quote from: David Randolph on October 19, 2005, 05:18:55 AMSo I'm not selling this stock anytime soon, not below $25. It would take a lot of change in the technicals and fundamentals to shake me out now.

So technicals have changed, but have fundamentals?

The 180 degree changes in philosophy from day to day do seem... puzzling. This is not the first time I've noticed this for the 3 stocks portfolio.  I too don't mean to be too critical either, but hope to offer some constructive comments. It seems that making proclamations of "holding until..." aren't followed, so why make them? It just dimishes your thunder.

Found this story this morning.

Avian flu virus found in Canada

By ALLISON DUNFIELD

Monday, October 31, 2005 Posted at 1:30 PM EST

Globe and Mail Update

Avian flu has turned up in Canada, officials from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced Monday.

A surveillance program of wild fowl done in August and September of this year in seven provinces by the agency has discovered the illness in 28 Quebec birds and five Manitoba birds.

These birds were all found to have the H5 strain of the illness – not as serious as the one found in Asia, the H5N1 subtype, which has caused a widespread outbreak there.


I find it amazing there has not been any birds found in America due to the fact that one of the most likely means of transmission is through migratory birds. Its seems very similar to mad cow disease in that Canada was put into the spot light before any cows were found in the USA.

TGT still 10$?  I dont know, but i bet alot of people bought around the 6-7 range waiting for a come back.  It will happen, no one REALLY imagined this thing becoming an outbreak.  Bush will confirm this tomorrow.  He will mention his 8 BILLION dollar plan and stocks will jump.  5.00 is a good entry point.  risk is bottom to 4 or as high as 8+.   No need to panic yet.  I believe people will be buying back in at higher prices after just taking loses.  But like i said, it really depends on what the Presidient says tomorrow

Quote from DAN
This is a company that is carefully growing its business and is on track to achieve a tremendous potential as one of China's---and Asia's---leading vaccine manufacturers.

I will do some research on CBMX- it seems to be an american company.  Could get its name used tomorrow.  Its up 14% already at 2.10 breaking resistance.  Could be a good catch.

Just want to point out BBC, another chinese equity.  Not only is it undervalued, but it is growing and profitable.  I don't expect any movement any time soon, but it will pop some day... I believe it's one to keep on the radar screens.  Any of the experts on the board feel like doing a quick TA on it?

the bottom from a few weeks back of 4.89 after which this thing went to 7.92, seems to have held again today....good sign IMO.

the close above 5.00 is also quite encouraging...looks like 4.90 may be a short term double bottom after all...we'll just have to wait and see.

also, the stochastics show me an oversold situation and time to grab some at these levels...the two resistances I see now are:

1.) $5.75 which previously was a support level

2.) $6.65 which failed to be broken twice in two days last week.

i added more at 4.98 today.

good luck  ;)

viac666:

Appreciate your post - just want to say I agree with you 100%, but I hesitated to buy more; I actually sold some more at 5.20 this am, now having 50% of my original long position. I think vic666 is right than the bounce back over $5 is very constructive and expect SVA to probably trend higher from here. If I get another chance I will also buy below 5.00 Its worth looking at NVAX and the way its going slowly back above $4. I dumped some more at 3.84 but am keeping the rest; I also have a AH buy order in at 3.96 as I am convinced we will get to mid4s before we retest 3.60! When I sold I did not see the pattern that emerged later in the day; had I known I would not have sold any NVAX shares.

Thanks

It touched the 38% retracement level (4.91) and moved north after that.
Bush speech tomorrow combined with SVA presentation at WHO on 11/02/05 made this a buy at 5.02 today.

Though about watching it one more day, but I beleive the Bush speech tomorrow will ignite another round of speculation.

thats correct...the 38% retracement was one support, and the same 4.91 also acted asa bottom from a recent uptrend to 52 week highs.

all-in-all, I believe we have seena a short term uptredn, atleast till the 5.50-5.75 levles...where we face some resistance from earlier support areas (which were broken on friday).

all of the above, not considering any speculative news...in which case, this will tredn back higher faster IMO.  ;D

QuoteThe 180 degree changes in philosophy from day to day do seem... puzzling. This is not the first time I've noticed this for the 3 stocks portfolio

Yeah, that is pretty funny ;D "I won't sell till $25" followed by "Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell!!!!" LOL! If you check the NVAX thread though, over the weekend David stated he's reconsidered his use of targets because, as a trader, they cause you to take your eye off the ball. Pretend you're a hitter in baseball. If your target is the "hit it here" sign 450 feet from home plate and you're staring at that target, then you're not watching the ball and you won't hit it. Not 450 feet, maybe not even 50 feet :o

Something that I'm finding noticeably absent from this thread and others, is any mentioning of the SPECTACULAR gains that David has had in HEB, SVA, and NVAX:

HEB  + 20.80
HEB  - 15.86
NVAX + 26.66
NVAX + 11.32
SVA +66.67
SVA -30.97

Total Gain on the six trades: 78.62%

Is that as good as it "could have been?"  Not by a long shot.  David "could have" sold NVAX a few days ago for 100%+ gain.

There probably isn't a trader in the world who "coulda"..."shoulda"..."woulda" had a better gain "if they they had just done this, that, or the other thing."

What's the bottom line here?  A 78.62% gain on six trades.  That's an outstanding result.

As far as David's $25 target on SVA, and then changing his mind, here's my view on that: when David gives his daily update, he's giving us his view at that moment in time.  He's also talking to us T2T (Trader To Trader), like friends would over a drink after the market closes.  One might say, "I think this stock is going to the moon!"  Or, "Im never selling this stock!  I can send the kids to college on it!"  That's all T2T talk.

When it comes down to actual trading decisions, David uses stops, regardless of how excited he is about a stock, or his opinion about a stock.  He also is honest with himself, and has been honest with us in admitting that certain entries weren't good, and in admitting that he has to change his opinion, based on what he's seeing NOW.

Being willing to change one's view is critical to success.  If David wasn't willing to do that, he would be hanging on endlessly to losing positions, and he would not have nearly the good results that he has.

If any member is upset with David over the bird flu stocks, I have trouble understanding why, when they should have an overall gain in the six trades of 78.62%, like David does.  ???

If anyone has losses in these stocks, I have to conclude that that person was making trading decisions on his or her own, and isn't taking responsibility for his or her own trading decisions.

If anyone hung on to one of these six trades because of something that David said in the past, it's unfair to hang David with that.  The market is dynamic.  It changes, and David has to change with it.  And, he did.

As in all of life, internet sites like 3SOF can deteriorate fairly quickly if we give our energy to negativity.  It breeds on itself.  I would hate to see that happen here.

Applause to David fo his 78.62% gain in these six bird flu-related trades.





 

BRAVO Melf Elf !!!!!!  Well said.

GRRRRRREAT POST !   I also enjoy this website and would hate to see it turn into a "normal" message board.

I did get a bit carried away with SVA, but what the heck ... win some loose some eh?

Regarding the whole bird flu situation perhaps David might consider keeping the bird flu group stocks on the board and give his reccomendations although he might have sold his position temporarily.  Since he already stated that he doesn't expect the flu hype to go away in the near short term thus there will be plenty of volatility, risk, and opportunity for profit and I for one would benefit from his guidance although his timing hasn't been perfect  ;)

SVA up 7.5% so far (11:30 AM EDT)..... My only regret is I didn't buy NVAX too (22% jump)

SVA cooperation  >:D


Doctors: Bird flu patient 'will survive'

(dpa) - Health authorities expressed confidence on Tuesday that Thailand's 20th bird flu patient - a 50-year-old Bangkok woman - would survive the deadly virus because she had received swift Tamiflu treatment.

"I guarantee this woman will not die," said Thawat Sunfrajan, director general of Thailand's Communicable Diseases Department. "I am 100-per-cent confident she will survive."

Lab tests confirmed Monday night that the woman, whose name has not been disclosed, had contracted bird flu while helping her husband clean up chicken droppings in a garden in suburban Nonthaburi.

The woman, upon developing avian-influenza symptoms, was sent to Siriraj Hospital in the capital where she was immediately treated with Tamiflu, the only known effective medicine against the deadly H5N1 virus.

"Tamiflu is not a cure, but if it is taken soon enough, it will halt the spread of the virus," Dr Tawat said. He said Thailand has a stockpile of 1 million Tamiflu doses, enough to treat 100,000 patients.

Thailand has had 20 confirmed cases of humans contracting bird flu from poultry, of whom 13 have died.

Tawat said Thailand was ready to produce Tamiflu locally under licence from Roche, the Swiss manufacturer of the drug.

The government's Pharmaceutical Organization has also entered into a joint venture with China's Sinovac enterprise to produce a vaccine against human influenza, he said.

Although the vaccine would not stop the H5N1 virus, it would prevent all forms of human influenza, and, therefore, reduce the possibility of the bird-flu virus mutating into a form that could be transmitted from human to human, Tawat said.

"What the whole world is worried about is that this H5N1 will mutate into a human-to-human virus," he said.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=59134

chek todays closing chart on SVA...tested the lower B-band yesterday; tested the near term support of 4.89 yesterday, and in both cases, held well to close ahove 5.00

and today, when most flu stocks were weak or ended down (including heb, gnbt, cbmx), SVA closed higher on decent volume.

did it break the recent downtrend after testing support? did it bottom out short term??

the ultimate oscillator also showed a positive divergence yesterday, after coming off of the 30 level...

to me, all of this suggests a trend back up to test $6.65 again, which proved to be tough resistance on two consecutive days last week.

Mr. Elf - while I too appreciate David's advice , you made on small error = you have to divide by the number of trades, which is 6. Remember David only invests a percentage of the portfolio in the trade, but an equal percentage. So the way you calculate the portfolio return of Avian flu stock performance is to equally weight each of the trades - that means you add them up to 78.6% or as I got 88% (one difference on NVAX between us which I am too lasy to check in David's closed trade list) and then divide by the numebr of trades. Think of it like this. I invested $100 by spending       16 2/3rds dollars  on each of the six trades. So I went to David's closed trades list and here it is, just like you did and redid the calculation.

Now I am not trying to bust your bubble but the actual return on David's six trades is 14.67%, not 78.62%. If the number is 78.62 as you got, the return is 13.1%, or with my figures its 14.67%.

The only way you woud get the 78.62% return is with leverage and if you could invest $100 in each of the trades!!, not just one-sixth but 100%. I think you see what I mean.

HEB: 2.50 to 3.02; gain = .52 or 21%  (you had 20.8%)
SVA: 7.75 to 5.35; loss = 2.40 or -31% (y h -30.97%)
NVAX: 2.64 to 3.6; gain = .96 or 36% (y h 26.7%)
SVA: 3.75 to 6.25; gain = 2.5 or 67% (y h 67%)
HEB: 2.27 to 1.91; loss = -.36 or -16% (y h -15.86%)
NVAX: 2.12 to 2.36; gain = .24 or 11% (y h 11.32)



That total 88% divided by 6, or 14.67%.

Now if you add in the other two AVian trades (AVII and VICL) :

AVII: 3.56 to 3.5; loss = -.06 or -2%
VICL: 4,64 to 5.02; gain = .38 or 8%

you get 11.75% return, slightly less.

Personally, thats pretty respectable  return in a month or two (how ever long) so I am far from complaining, but it is not 78.62%! which is the leveraged 6 times result. Just dont wnat to give the readers the wrong impression about how good the results really are.

Another reason that this is the right way to look at it is think of it as you are picking six trades and investing the same amount in each - then one by one you take em off and place the proceeeds in cash. Then average the results for the six trades to see what the portfolio return is: 11.75%! for a month or two. Remember if you could do that every two months that a 95% annual return, and thats not too shabby!


Defenderyou

Defender aka Eliot Spitzer, that wasn't a post that was a short story! Your math is correct though. Quick and easy way to look at it is if you had put $100 into each of the 6 trades (=$600 capital risked) you would have ended up with $678, a return of 13.1% (678/600). I think MelfElf was channeling ex-HealthSouth CEO Richard Scrushy when he overstated 3SoF earnings there!

Latest News involving SVA:  Just hold onto your SVA shares,  David maybe right, then you'll have to change the % returns.

Doctors: Bird flu patient 'will survive'

(dpa) - Health authorities expressed confidence on Tuesday that Thailand's 20th bird flu patient - a 50-year-old Bangkok woman - would survive the deadly virus because she had received swift Tamiflu treatment.

"I guarantee this woman will not die," said Thawat Sunfrajan, director general of Thailand's Communicable Diseases Department. "I am 100-per-cent confident she will survive."

Lab tests confirmed Monday night that the woman, whose name has not been disclosed, had contracted bird flu while helping her husband clean up chicken droppings in a garden in suburban Nonthaburi.

The woman, upon developing avian-influenza symptoms, was sent to Siriraj Hospital in the capital where she was immediately treated with Tamiflu, the only known effective medicine against the deadly H5N1 virus.

"Tamiflu is not a cure, but if it is taken soon enough, it will halt the spread of the virus," Dr Tawat said. He said Thailand has a stockpile of 1 million Tamiflu doses, enough to treat 100,000 patients.

Thailand has had 20 confirmed cases of humans contracting bird flu from poultry, of whom 13 have died.

Tawat said Thailand was ready to produce Tamiflu locally under licence from Roche, the Swiss manufacturer of the drug.

The government's Pharmaceutical Organization has also entered into a joint venture with China's Sinovac enterprise to produce a vaccine against human influenza, he said.

Although the vaccine would not stop the H5N1 virus, it would prevent all forms of human influenza, and, therefore, reduce the possibility of the bird-flu virus mutating into a form that could be transmitted from human to human, Tawat said.

"What the whole world is worried about is that this H5N1 will mutate into a human-to-human virus," he said.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=59134

Quote from: defenderyou on November 01, 2005, 06:55:41 PM
Now I am not trying to bust your bubble but the actual return on David's six trades is 14.67%, not 78.62%. If the number is 78.62 as you got, the return is 13.1%, or with my figures its 14.67%.

defenderyou,

I thought it was obvious that I was talking about just those six trades, not a 78% gain for the entire portifolio:

QuoteApplause to David for his 78.62% gain in these six bird flu-related trades.

I didn't mention anything about a 78.62% gain to the entire 3SOF portfolio. 

QuotePersonally, thats pretty respectable  return in a month or two (how ever long) so I am far from complaining, but it is not 78.62%!

That was my point.

Quote
Just dont wnat to give the readers the wrong impression about how good the results really are.

I assumed that everyone knows that David puts 6.6% of his portfolio in these trades, so it certainly wouldn't mean a 78.62% to the entire portfolio, but if anyone interpreted it that way, thanks for the clarification.

QuoteThen average the results for the six trades to see what the portfolio return is: 11.75%! for a month or two. Remember if you could do that every two months that a 95% annual return, and thats not too shabby.

Not too shabby at all.   ;)

Quote from: Lucas Scott on November 01, 2005, 10:05:45 PM
I think MelfElf was channeling ex-HealthSouth CEO Richard Scrushy when he overstated 3SoF earnings there!

Lucas Scott,

I'm sorry that you interpret my remarks in that way.

My math might have been off a percent or two since I had to calculate the percentages on each trade separately, and I didn't bother to re-check each one, but I'll stand by my statement of what David made on those six trades, and I was clear that I was talking only about those six trades:

QuoteApplause to David fo his 78.62% gain in these six bird flu-related trades.

Melf elf, keep it up! (Applaud)

Quotebut I'll stand by my statement of what David made on those six trades, and I was clear that I was talking only about those six trades:

Melf, now you're definitely channeling Scrushy! :D  What you have basically just said is "1+1=4, and I'll stand by that." The cumulative gain on those 6 trades was 13%, not 78%. I know you're not talking about the portfolio as a whole. Nor am I. We are both just looking at the 6 bird flu trades. And, per the laws of mathematics, the total return on the 6 bird flu trades was 13%.

Luke Q

Can anyone help me with the TA charting on SVA today? Thanks.

Quote from: brandyjoco on November 02, 2005, 12:05:25 PM
Can anyone help me with the TA charting on SVA today? Thanks.

brandyjoco,

1. SVA found support at 4.91 on October 31, which was two cents above the October 7 low of 4.89.  That's a "possible" double bottom.

2. Look at the low on October 21.  It was 5.51.  From that low, SVA had a Bear Flag rally.  If you connect the higher highs, and the higher lows, it looks like a flag.

3. Once we broke 5.75, then broke below 5.51 (the bottom of the Bear Flag on October 21), the bottom of the Bear Flag (5.50) becomes resistance.  (EDIT: 5.51, not 5.50)

4. Yesterday, SVA rallied to 5.55, five cents above that 5.51 resistance, then the rallied failed.

5. Now, SVA is re-testing the 4.89-4.91 area again.  If that breaks, it's going to look like a "double neckline" of the Inverse H&S Top. (See second chart).  If it holds, SVA could rally to TRIPLE resistance, near $6.00 (also see second chart).

brandyjoco,

Darn it, that horizontal scroll bar appeared on the hourly chart, too.  Here's a link for easier viewing:

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Melf Elf, really appreciate SVA TA.

Thanks (App)

Quote from: usedcasting on November 02, 2005, 03:46:34 PM
Melf Elf, really appreciate SVA TA.
Thanks (App)

usedcasting,

Thanks, I'm glad if it helps.  SVA is an interesting chart.  I've had an order in at 6.00, to short TRIPLE resistance, but SVA failed yesterday at the base of that October 21 Bear Flag. 

It's still got a chance to head up there, if 4.89-4.91 can hold.  If you look again at the hourly chart (below), MACD is well positioned.  It has double bottomed, and now is re-testing its signal line. 

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Be careful on this one.

SVA broke Monday's low of 4.91 today, printing 4.89.  That was the October 7 low, so questionable, and it was early today.  A late day rally, it might be alright, but at 2:38PM, SVA printed 4.881, which technically, is a new low for the move.  MACD also is rolling over to the downside.  If SVA closes below 4.89, we'll have a close below that double neckline on the daily chart that I posted yesterday.

SVA currently is trying to rallying a bit, but without much success.  it needs to get out of this danger zone.  It's currently BID 2.92...ASK 2.95.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

It's currently BID 2.92...ASK 2.95.
Im sorry if im missing something, but what are you talking about?

Quote from: puenthouse on November 04, 2005, 09:41:27 AM
It's currently BID 2.92...ASK 2.95.
Im sorry if im missing something, but what are you talking about?

I think Melf meant bid 4.92 ... ask 4.95

Melf Elf, thanks for your help on this one, I just ended my position. Over all I made a good return, but I hung on a bit to long.

Cheers
uc.

Quote from: puenthouse on November 04, 2005, 09:41:27 AM
It's currently BID 2.92...ASK 2.95.
Im sorry if im missing something, but what are you talking about?

puenthouse,

Sorry about that.  It was a typo error, as usedcasting explained.

QuoteOver all I made a good return, but I hung on a bit to long.

That's great!  How about those devils closing SVA yesterday exactly at 4.89?  >:D

QuoteIf SVA closes below 4.89, we'll have a close below that double neckline on the daily chart that I posted yesterday.

If I had been long, they would have gotten me on that late day break to 4.82.  I would have sold it.

But its acting well today - DNDN another breakdown is also acting well, probably off earnings and in anticipation of the CC.

Somewhat strange and infuriating, but I'm steering clear for now.

I find Friday afternoon is a good time to buy and I like SVA for a short term trade at this point. Bought at 5.15 and my mental stop is below the 50MA (currently 4.84).  Looking for a move back towards $6 next week.

MELF:

Just read the posts on the six trades. Seems that enough has been said; but I stick to what I said he made 11-13% (depending on the numbers) not 78%; asumming he put 4100 into those six trades then he has 111 -113 bucks and not 178.

ANyway we both agred that 11-13% in a month aint too shabby.

Actually more interedted in your views on SVA. I sold out most of my SVA at 5.20 (should have sold sooner) and above but held a few thousand shares - based on todays action do you think the technical pattern you referred too in your recent note still holds - that we maybe looking at $6 or more?

Appreciate your thoughts

Thanks

D

I think we need more volume (at least 1500000 shares traded during a couple of days) to get near
5.50 which is an important resistance and from there at least 2000000 to get safely to
6. Some good news would help.

jorgegr

Quote from: defenderyou on November 04, 2005, 04:41:23 PM
- based on todays action do you think the technical pattern you referred too in your recent note still holds - that we maybe looking at $6 or more?

defenderyou,

The way that I look at this, the bears have had four successful moves off the October 17 top:

1. They broke the Bear Flag (dark blue lines on chart) at about 6.15 on October 27.  Target: 4.99 was made.

Math for the target:

Top of the Flag was 6.67.  Bottom of the Flag was 5.51.  6.67 - 5.51 = 1.16 points.
Subtract that from the point of the break at 6.15. 
6.15 - 1.16 points = Target: 4.99, which was made on October 31.

2. On October 28, Double support at 5.75 was broken.

3. On October 28, the bottom of the Bear Flag at 5.51 also was taken out.

4. "The President's Bird Flu Speech" rally on November 1 ended at 5.55.  Former support (5.51) became resistance. (I was hoping for a rally to Triple Resistance at 6.00-ish, so I could short it).

On Thursday, November 3, the bulls defended 4.89-4.91 on a closing basis, and went on offense.  The bulls haven't done anything bullish yet; they only defended important support.

If the bulls can take out 5.55 and the down trendliine off October 18, then they've done something bullish "on offense," so to speak.

Basis the log chart below, the down trendline comes in on Monday, November 7 at about 5.65 (hard to read on a log chart).  On Tuesday, November 8, that down trendline comes in just about dead on 5.55, which is the price resistance above which the bulls need to get.

That would be a "W"-bottom takeout.  I always use the more conservative number for a target, so I would use the the left leg, the October 31 low of 4.91 to measure the target, rather than the low of the right leg at 4.82, on November 3.  Using either one is fine.

Math:

5.55 high - 4.91 low = 0.64 points.  EDIT: it's 0.64, not 0.61.
0.61 points added to a breakout above 5.55 ... 0.64 + 5.55 = Target: 6.19.

That would get us up to the area of both the rising broken neckline (dotted red line) and the broken up trendline (solid green).  Those trendlines on the log chart actually are higher than 6.16, so SVA could run above the 6.19 target if we get up there.

In the "There's Always Something To Worry About" department, when SVA broke below the up trendline (solid green line), it was mentioned that the up trendline didn't break on the linear chart.  Fair enough.  It's often a problem trying to figure which chart to use: log or linear.

I'll show you the linear chart separately, for easier viewing.

Basis the linear chart, the up trendline off the August 19 low was violated intraday on October 31, but it held on a closing basis.  True enough.  Let's follow up on that.

November 1, SVA went higher on Bush's bird flu speech, which supported the case for "Follow the linear chart...it's still bullish."

Where that argument fell apart was when SVA got stopped at former resistance (the October 18 bottom of the Bear Flag at 5.51), then closed below the up trendline the following day.

Now, the up trendline was broken on both the log and linear charts, and we got the re-test of 4.89-4.91 support.

Look at Friday's high on the linear chart: it was right at the bottom of the broken up trendline.

  Melf Elf....

     I like reading your posts and following your TA as you break it down but your last chart is cut off at october...and I can't see what you are talking about. Wasn't sure if you were aware of it or not. Thanks..

Use the scrollbar at the bottom of his post. ;)

Melf Elf,

I found it very interesting that you consider shorting SVA.  I've always held my the idea that it is not a good idea to short stocks with good fundamentals as there are always plenty of stocks with bad fundamentas and in a general downtrend.  Does this come into your consideration in your trading decisions?

I am also expecting SVA to come out with PR regarding the WHO meeting and a deal with Thailand.  Do you consider "expected" PR when you make decisions to short a stock? 

Oh, and about David.  The best lesson I've learned from David is to limit losses and let your winners run.  I like the fact that David is ready to admit it when he is wrong (u will not get this from most analysts or stockpickers).  If you look @ David's record, he has more losses than winners but he is up a great deal.  One thing I do wish is that David does take more than "the time it takes to buy a refrigerator" to analyze a stock.  This has caused some mistakes (USEY, BIDU).  Just my 2 cents.

Quote from: logocovet on November 06, 2005, 10:13:24 PM
Melf Elf,

I found it very interesting that you consider shorting SVA.  I've always held my the idea that it is not a good idea to short stocks with good fundamentals as there are always plenty of stocks with bad fundamentas and in a general downtrend.  Does this come into your consideration in your trading decisions?

If the fundamentals look good but the chart looks bearish, I go with the chart.  (see repost below from the STX file for explanation).

QuoteI am also expecting SVA to come out with PR regarding the WHO meeting and a deal with Thailand.  Do you consider "expected" PR when you make decisions to short a stock? 

Yes, I was hoping that the PR regarding the president's bird flu speech last Tuesday would generate enough excitement to fuel a rally to triple resistance near 6.00, which I liked as a short. 

STX repost:

"This is one of those "counter-intuitive" things, but let's walk through it:

Scroll down and look at the Inverse H&S breakout in November, 2004.  At that time, trailing twelve month earnings were $0.24, so at the point of the upside breakout, STX was trading at a P/E of 60 basis TTM. 

That's a very high P/E, and we might have been inclined to pass on the trade based on that.  However, if we remember that the market is a discounting mechanism, and that it looks forward about six months, we might have been inclined to play the breakout, and make a nice profit.

Six months from the November breakout (roughly) STX was up 100% off the August, 2004 low, and after the November, 2004 breakout, earnings improved as we went along.

Now, on August 25, 2005, STX gapped down to 17.60, below a H&S top on very nice trailing twelve month earnings.  At 17.60, the P/E ratio was only 12.84 basis TTM.  Just as we might have been inclined to pass on buying the Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout in November, 2004 because of the high P/E ratio, we're now inclined to BUY the Inverse H&S breakdown because of the low P/E. 

Hmm-mm...now, what did we say about the market being a discounting mechanism? 

1. STX has broken the neckline of a H&S top.
2. STX has  broken June, 2005 support at 17.04
3. STX has broken April, 2005 suppot at 16.422

All in only five sessions.

Just my opinion, but when the chart isn't playing out what the fundamentals are indicating (they appeared to be bad in November, 2004...the appear to be good in August, 2005), I defer to the chart. It's damaged, technically.

Watching the price action in STX this week, BTW, I'm now pretty convinced that the "dubious" Piper Jaffray upgrade on Monday was an attempt to distribute some STX stock on the one day rally back to the broken neckline that their "upgrade" generated.

Maybe I've become too cynical."   

looks to be moving up...to form the right side of a cup pattern....stochastics have bottomed out and an nice swing back up from the charts (the way I see it)...also, the ultimate oscillator is nicely rebounding off of level 30....the last time this happened...see how nice the move was...

the only thing i'm waititng for is some volume.  ;)

I'm holding SVA as I think something is brewing here (I think I said in a previous post I wanted to hold through the WHO conference). Charts have been turning over that is certainly true, however I held because I saw suport hold on my weekly chart at the 9ema and a reversal being put in from that zone. Now my main indicators (such as MACD Histo) were saying be very cautious (and still are). But the thing with this type of news hysteria driven bird flu thing is that the chart can correct in a flash when news hits the wires. Right now news out of China is kinda depressing from the flu standpoint, but supportive for the stock price because most of the action (as it were is in China, or at least the Asian sphere of influence):

China closes poultry markets http://apnews.myway.com/article/20051107/D8DNL4L80.html

WHO Avian Flu conference (SVA presenting there) http://www.disasternews.net/news/news.php?articleid=2942

'Some countries are researching other anti-viral drugs and one news report said China had developed a vaccine to prevent bird flu in humans. According to the WHO, "at least 10 vaccine developers in as many countries are carrying out demonstration projects to develop and evaluate vaccines primarily against the H5N1 subtype."
Now that is just a gossip quote, but it is fuel to the fire and frenzy.

Anyway enough news, SVA did OK today and there is some crazy after hours trades at $6.50 (just a few K shares) now that could either be reaction to all this news/gossip happening or it just could be a few fools desperately buying 'before the train leaves the station' as some amatuers/pumpers like to shout. I guess Tuesday will confirm what the truth is.

Good Luck

Hi Aussie,

Indeed something is brewing. I don't know if there is any truth to the rumour that Sinovac already has a vaccine ready but it is only a matter of time before they will. Vaccine development in China is both faster than in the states and cheaper!

Another confirmation that SVA is moving fast with their vaccine came from Thailand today :

QuoteDr Prasert said authorities should start thinking about ordering other drugs beside Tamiflu.

The Government Pharmaceutical Organization (GPO) plans to produce around one million capsules of the generic version of Tamiflu by next year. The Thai version would reduce the price per capsule from 120 baht to 70 baht.

The GPO is also negotiating with French and Chinese pharmaceutical firms to produce influenza vaccines in Thailand. Mongkol Jivasantikarn, GPO's managing director, said cooperation with China's Sinovac Biotech was possible.

Today should be another good day for SVA shareholders (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3311;image)

Hi Michael,

I am still holding SVA. I am not following Avian flu closely, but just think that they will sell out the 2M influenza flu vacine in China, and will sell out the 20M influenza flu vaccine when it's financed & built.


-Louis

Hi Louis,

I agree - their normal flu vaccine is what makes this a good solid investment. It is however the AVIAN flu vaccine that makes this a potential stellar investment.

Here is a bit more news out of Thailand:

QuoteFrench and Chinese pharmaceutical giants plan to conduct H5N1 vaccination trials on health care workers, poultry farmers and kids in Thailand, considered to be at-risk groups for bird flu infection, the Public Health Ministry's Medical Sciences Department revealed yesterday. France's Sanofi Pasteur and China's Sinovac Biotech were interested in jointly conducting the bird flu vaccine experiments on humans with the ministry. The companies also disclosed plans to establish avian influenza production factories here, said chief of Medical Sciences Paijit Warachit.

Human trials, joint venture with Sanofi ...........

Hmmmm..... Something is indeed brewing!

Hi Michael,

I agree. I just hope that not too many short term Avian flu guys come in and run the price to $7.5 and then drop. I am a long term holder but don't appreciate the portfolio go up & down too much, but rather have steady state growth.

Certainly a fantastic day with VPHM, AOB, CKCM, SVA, HOM, BRVO, and BTUI! I just put in a small investment in ETLT.OB this morning on Oliver's recommendation and looks like a big winner!

-Louis

My entry last Friday at 5.17 was looking really smart up until about an hour ago when the pps went into a freefall. What's up with the drop from 5.70's to below 5.20 today? I am going to hold and see what happens tomorrow. I expect tomorrow will be a small white candle. Of course that could just be wishful thinking on my part.

what the heck happened in the late afternoon....almost all birdflu stocks closed red, and SVA was no exception either!!  :o

can someone shed light on if there was some sorta news that drove this down...coz up until 2.30 pm, things looked great.   ???

SVA is a great company with great potential but it is not very good with PR.  We've heard nothing official about the Bangkok Post'sreported Thailand deal or Sanofi teamup.  There is much talk on the SVA investor group on Yahoo that SVA will come out soon with a private placement.  This (or some other form of raising money) seems inevitable as it will need funding for expanding production of Anflu.

The Chinese govt recently backtracked on its previous statement that a yong girl that died did not have bird flu.  Now it says it isn't sure and has  invited the WHO to investigate.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/11/07/wflu07.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/11/07/ixportal.html
SVA also had a brief mention in Forbes as a bird flu play.

http://www.forbes.com/home/free_forbes/2005/1114/214.html

I don't know what to make of recent action.  2 days up on low volume and a sharp drop today.  ??? anyone with any  insight?

The sharp selloff towards the end of the day could be because the WHO said that Avian Flu  is not a pandemic but rather an animal disease.

Yeah waht a bummer  I made a mistake. essentially out of VSA with only 3k shares unitl today - bought too seeon at 5.40 on the temporary drop - at least I thought it was and got hosed on a quick 2.5k purchase. I too will hodl till tomorrow but on any waekness I will take my losses. I would love to hear a good explanation of what happened form someone like Mr. ELF

Best and good luck

Defenderyou

 :-\ yeah this shart drop yesterday....was it because it triggerd stop losses at around 5.50 support ? maybe ? or are we still in downtrend ?

my plan
1. sell limit market order 4.81 (4.82 was low of the last 10 days)
2. or keep it long target 2006 fundemental play
3. MA 50 at 4.91 should hold
4. if plan fails move on

We will see

Quote
The way that I look at this, the bears have had four successful moves off the October 17 top:

1. They broke the Bear Flag (dark blue lines on chart) at about 6.15 on October 27.  Target: 4.99 was made.

Math for the target:

Top of the Flag was 6.67.  Bottom of the Flag was 5.51.  6.67 - 5.51 = 1.16 points.
Subtract that from the point of the break at 6.15. 
6.15 - 1.16 points = Target: 4.99, which was made on October 31.

2. On October 28, Double support at 5.75 was broken.

3. On October 28, the bottom of the Bear Flag at 5.51 also was taken out.

4. "The President's Bird Flu Speech" rally on November 1 ended at 5.55.  Former support (5.51) became resistance. (I was hoping for a rally to Triple Resistance at 6.00-ish, so I could short it).

5. On November 8, the "gap to crap" breakout above 5.55 failed near the open of 5.75, which was former Double support (see  #2).  Former support now is resistance.  The bears then reversed the opening breakout above 5.55 resistance, negating it, and also reversed the November 7 candle, putting in a Bearish Engulfing Pattern on higher volume.

Melf elf, as I have said before, I have really appreciated your analysis on SVA, again thanks. I understand that you are looking at it from a T.A. standpoint so I was just wondering if you have an re-entry point. I ask because obviously from a fundamental standpoint there is great potential for SVA. I am going to assume that resistance around $4.90 will not draw you in. I am grateful for your insights.

Thanks a lot!

uc

Quote from: usedcasting on November 09, 2005, 08:26:47 AM
I understand that you are looking at it from a T.A. standpoint so I was just wondering if you have an re-entry point.

uc,

Not while the bears are in control.

Quote
I ask because obviously from a fundamental standpoint there is great potential for SVA.

Given the Five Bear Moves in SVA since October 27, and given the fact that SVA enjoyed a rally of 380% from June to October, the good fundamentals "might be" already factored in.  Further good news might not translate into higher prices for SVA.  We'll just have to follow it, as best we can.

Yesterday's news from Toll Brothers (TOL) is a recent example of that.  The news was great at the July top.  Yesterday, CNBC reported that in  anOctober interview, the CEO gave a  bullish outlook for the years ahead, but he already had sold at the July top (I don't know what percentage of his holding). 

According to the same report, 26 other insiders sales took place while the news still was good.   ::)

It's difficult to sort this stuff out.  The builders were very bullish for 5½ years.  Rather than try to interpret whether or not the outlook is as bullish as the CEO said it was in October, or to interpret the impact of interest rates on housing sales, etc., I'd rather look at the chart to see if I can determine anything.  (see TOL chart below). 

Quote
I am going to assume that resistance around $4.90 will not draw you in. .

You mean support, of course.  No, I'd have to pass.

the street.com recommends sva  and getting pumped on stockhouse.com......is something up? the pumping starts...

SVA also mentioned in todays news of GNBT

Generex Biotech proposes collaborations in China for the co-development of a novel vaccine for pandemic Avian Influenza (GNBT) :Co announces that Antigen Express, its wholly owned immunotherapeutics subsidiary, has made proposals for co-development of the Antigen Express novel H5N1 avian influenza vaccine in China following a trip to Beijing by Dr. Minzhen Xu, the Antigen Express Vice-President of Biology. Proposals were made to: Professor Hualan Chen of the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute; Ms. Nan Wang, Vice General Manager of Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd.; and Professor Bing Sun of the Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. All have an interest in vaccine development for the H5N1 avian influenza in China.


Other related news today:

Wed Nov 9, 1:52 AM ET



BEIJING (AFP) - China warned a bird flu outbreak in northeastern Liaoning province had not yet been controlled and could become a disaster, mainly due to the use of fake and shoddy poultry vaccines.

"In Heishan county, Liaoning province, the epidemic is still serious," Agriculture Minister Du Qingling told the China News Service, two weeks after poultry started dying from the bird flu there.

"Efforts to wipe out the disease have been very difficult and the prevention work is arduous."

Over six million chickens, ducks and geese have been culled in the province since the outbreak, which was officially reported to the World Health Organisation on November 3.

Du slammed producers of low-quality vaccines that were being sold in Liaoning, saying such products could ruin government efforts to eradicate the H5N1 bird flu virus.

"The use of fake and shoddy vaccines will result in a disaster," Du said.

"If the vaccines are not up to standard, then immunization to the virus will not be uniform or effective. This could bring huge losses."

Farms in the region were highly concentrated, he said, meaning that any problems in vaccinating poultry could result in the epidemic spreading.

"If we miss the chance to exterminate the virus in the early stages, then the difficulty in wiping it out will increase by several times as will the spread of the epidemic," Du said.

"We must fully recognize that at present there is a possibility that the epidemic will spread and expand. This is not an exaggeration just to scare people."

Health authorities fear the bird flu could kill millions of people worldwide if the virus increases its capacity to jump the species barrier from birds to humans, and becomes an easily transissible human flu.

The bird flu has killed more than 60 people in Southeast Asia since 2003.

Although no human cases of the bird flu have been documented in China, the     World Health Organization is currently investigating whether three Chinese, one of whom has died, caught the disease in central Hunan province last month.

Du said the three outbreaks other than Liaoning -- in Hunan, Inner Mongolia and Anhui -- were all under control, describing the situations there as "rather good."

The government has allocated 10 million dollars to fight the disease in Liaoning and ordered police and the military to help in the cull

hi,
i agree with melf elf on this.
look at todays volume . half of yesterday with only a slight move higher. the chart tells a story and most news and fundamentals get factored in before they happen . at least that is my limited experience . the ta will tell you where the stock is going because ( and now iam going to be alittle esoteric) it is history repeating and humans do the same thing over and over again . the study of charts, which ever way you do it will bear this out.  thats why we use swing charts and head and shoulders and candles etc. etc.
i hope this is alright . i don't mean to ramble but will be looking to short sva in the next few days.
thanks for putting up with me ;D
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on November 09, 2005, 03:49:24 PM
hi,
i agree with melf elf on this.
look at todays volume . half of yesterday with only a slight move higher. the chart tells a story and most news and fundamentals get factored in before they happen . at least that is my limited experience . the ta will tell you where the stock is going because ( and now iam going to be alittle esoteric) it is history repeating and humans do the same thing over and over again . the study of charts, which ever way you do it will bear this out.  thats why we use swing charts and head and shoulders and candles etc. etc.
i hope this is alright . i don't mean to ramble but will be looking to short sva in the next few days.
thanks for putting up with me ;D
maxi

[tr][/tr]

oh,
and now that i said i would be looking to short you will probably find it safer to go long lol
thanks again,
maxi

QuoteI am going to hold and see what happens tomorrow. I expect tomorrow will be a small white candle.

Good call Luke!! Applaud ;D  Today I sold the position I took on Friday for a small gain. Lunch money, no more. Now it's feeding time!

Luke Q

1. very bullish fast stochastics (in the past good entry)
2. MACD is increasing positve
3. MA 50 bounce
4. Fundamental story
5. Pandemie is coming sooner or later
6. Cramer and Stockhouse pumping this thing
7. 2nd rally will come
8. Chart looks good

Good night fellows >:D

9. possible that we get a sym. triangle
10. Volume decreases its good
11. Suddenly breakout of the sym triangle. with more Volume..

A couple of days patience ....

I read these messages about shorting SVA and by all means feel free if you really think that this is the best short out there but i can't help asking what in h... are you thinking?

This is one of the best fundamental picks out there but even if you believe it is overvalued and this technically is the best short in the stock market why would you short a stock that potentially can go up 100% without a chance to cover?

I am not questioning the value of TA but even technical analysis has its limitation. It can't predict the first human to human infection, the first bird flu in US, A case of SARS etc. etc.

But as said feel free. Shorts are an increasingly important player in the stock market. I know that many investors feel offended when their favorite stocks get shorted. I actually consider a large short position as a great asset unless the company needs to raise new capital . It gives you a nice support and will fuel a rally.

I have to agree with the longs here.  China is a volcano that can explode anytime with Brid Flu.  Yesterday, China just admitted that the little girl that died supposedly of pnumonia actually had Brid Flu.  The girl, along with her brother and teacher, contracted bird flu after eating a sick chicken.

So, SVA can shoot up, not just on fundamentals, but on any Brid Flu news, which will come sooner or later. 

TA can't predict what kind of news is going to come.  Isn't shorting this a pure gamble? 

hi,
i beg to differ that ta can't predict the event. well it can't predict the actual event but because it is all basically a vibrational and mathamatical equation it predicts something is going to happen in the future based o the time and price and what ever ta method you find most effective. because history and humans only ever repeat themselves. there is some fantastic examples of this kind of market prediction in the work of w.d. gann. "truth of the stock tape" and "45 years on wall street" you can get them through your local library. also an australian guy called david bowden had also predicted where the market would be to the minute one year in advance. of course world events coincide with the prediction. it is basically based on time and price. and looking back to look forward. so you may be right about sva . when i talk about shorting it , it would be very short term but the swing chart has gone sideways for now so i will wait to find out wich way it will head short term.
sorry to ramble on ,, open to any criticism,
thanks
maxi

Hi Rickjust,

I fully agree in your statement and I think that is a valid reason for either buying or selling SVA but we are talking about shorting SVA.

Let me try to illustrate it. This news is from last month:

QuoteHONG KONG : A study in Hong Kong has found that a local bat species carries a virus virtually identical to SARS, the pneumonia-like illness that killed hundreds in a worldwide outbreak, researchers said Sunday.

So the SARS virus is out there (as a lot of other "sleeping" viruses like ebola etc.) What you are saying is that TA shows the investors collective assessment about the likelihood a new human case in the foreseeable future. This is absolutely valid when you decide on selling and buying. But what if you short the stock today and BBC and CNN tonight publish this news:

QuoteBEIJING : The Chinese state TV has reported two cases of SARS in eastern China, the pneumonia-like illness that killed hundreds in a worldwide outbreak. WHO orders mass vaccination in the area

SVA is the only company with a vaccine so would the stock increase 100%, 200%, 300% at the opening. Well your guess is as good as mine but I for sure wouldn't like to be short  ;)

There are oceans of good short candidates out there but SVA; hell no!

On another issue it seems like a number of Pharmaceuticals would like to sleep with our beauty. I hope she will be a very expensive lady  (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3073)

Mike

I agree with you michael..


BEIJING--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 20, 2005--Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX:SVA - News) today announced that it will present at the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) Global Life Sciences Conference; has received a government grant for the development of an avian flu vaccine for humans; and received a USD 4.94 million dollar commercial credit line from a Chinese commercial bank.


With the Government in the back they have no stress and they will develop one vaccine against bird flu....

Sinovac's successful development of a seasonal influenza vaccine is a key element in technological transfer to the research and development of pandemic influenza vaccine (H5N1). Currently, this vaccine development is in preclinical stage. Receiving GMP certification for Anflu(TM) will act as a catalyst for Sinovac's pandemic influenza vaccine (H5N1) development.

Quote from: Michael on November 09, 2005, 06:48:30 PM
I read these messages about shorting SVA and by all means feel free if you really think that this is the best short out there

Mike,

I'm not aware that anyone said that SVA was the best short out there.

Quote
but i can't help asking what in h... are you thinking?

What the h... I was thinking was that if SVA rallied to TRIPLE resistance near 6.00 (up and down blue arrows on the chart) on, or right after (November 1 and November 2)  Bush's bird flu speech, it was a decent short, technically.   

QuoteThis is one of the best fundamental picks out there but even if you believe it is overvalued and this technically is the best short in the stock market

Again, I didn't say that it was the best short in the stock market.  It's a high beta stock, so the volatility can produce quick gains, e.g. shorting the November 8 "gap to crap" was worth better than 10% if covered at the close.

CKCM, a stock that many of us discussed this summer,  had good fundamentals and has recovered nicely from its recent decline, but it  lost 53% of its value from early August to early October.  It was a great short, but yes, there was risk if the shorts didn't cover somewhere at/near the 13.55 target.

Quotewhy would you short a stock that potentially can go up 100% without a chance to cover?

That's true of any stock, e.g., on a takeover.  A gap up of 100% for a stock in this price range is unusual, but yes, it certainly can happen, and everyone should be aware of that.  It's a risk that you take when you short anything.

hi,
i am very much a newbie and i am aware that there are many more better shorting candidates out there. i have only ever shorted once before and that was a few days ago on sva. i made a huge profit , of ........get ...this ..........52 cents. i had never done it before and i wanted to try it so i shorted 50 shares , based on my swing trading plan it was a good candidate , not the best out there i am sure but a good start for me. i am learning all the time
so happy trading to all and good luck to all longs on this stock,
thanks ,
maxi :D

Thursday November 10, 1:54 PM
Influenza affects pigs, birds in China, kills man in Vietnam
(Kyodo) _ Bird flu virus was found in pigs bred in China's Hunan Province, which means the virus could be a step closer to infecting human in a large scale, according to reports in Hong Kong on Thursday, while Vietnam reported the first human death from the A H3 strain of bird flu.
Ming Pao Daily News quoted an interview on China's Phoenix Satellite TV in which a deputy agricultural minister in Hunan admitted the bird flu virus had been found in pigs for the first time.

Local and foreign health officials are still investigating whether a 12-year-old girl, her brother and another man in the province were infected with bird flu earlier last month. The girl died after eating a sick chicken, while the other two recovered from flu like illnesses.

The report said China's health ministry was notified of the pig infections and scientists were inspecting pigs in the surrounding area, but the provincial agricultural ministry later told Phoenix TV that the official who exposed the pig infections "made a mistake" and retracted what the official said.

A spokesman from the farm ministry said Thursday they have not gathered enough information to disclose further details.

"What has happened is still not very clear to us," the spokesman, who refused to be identified, said.     I AM:
a woman a man
I'M SEEKING:
a man a woman
With photo: 



The health ministry also refused to comment on the report and the Hong Kong government said it has yet to receive any notification about pigs infected with bird flu in Hunan.

Hong Kong had 18 people infected with the deadly bird flu virus H5N1 in 1997 -- six of them died -- and there are signs the virus is regaining its strength and spreading among migratory birds this fall from Russia to North America.

In Hanoi, a local health official who refused to be identified, reported a 43-year-old man has died of the type A H3 strain of bird flu, the first person in Vietnam to die of that virus strain.

The man from the northern city Haiphong was admitted to a hospital Nov. 1 and died the following day after being transferred to Viet-Tiep Hospital, an official at the hospital told Kyodo News.

The man had developed symptoms of high fever and breathing difficulties on his way back from Vung Tau where he had eaten chicken.

Samples from the patient were sent to the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology in Hanoi and test results confirmed he was infected with the type A H3 virus, the hospital official said.

At least one H3 virus currently circulating is said to be a variant of the "Hong Hong flu" virus prevalent in 1968 and has been called the "Fujian flu."

A total of 42 Vietnamese people have been killed by the often dangerous H5N1 virus since the first outbreak of that avian flu strain hit the country in 2003.

The World Health Organization has warned that up to 7 million people may die if a flu pandemic caused by avian influenza hits the world as humans do not have immunity against the virus.

Lo Wing-lok, an infectious disease expert in Hong Kong, said it is "not unexpected" that the pigs in Hunan could be infected with bird flu virus.

"Farmers do not separate their pigs from poultry in Hunan, making it possible for a chicken disease to infect pigs," Lo said. "In fact, pigs in Indonesia had been reported having contracted bird flu virus in 2004, where farmers placed the chicken cages on top of where they bred the pigs and fed the pigs with chicken droppings."

Since pigs can carry flu virus from different species, the virus could cross-mutate and allow bird flu to gain the ability to infect human, according to scientists.

"More species of bird flu virus found in pigs means higher chance for virus mutation and for humans to be infected," Lo said.

In Beijing, the World Organization for Animal Health reported late Wednesday that another 2,150 Chinese chickens have caught bird flu and 1,100 have died this week.

According to a Chinese Ministry of Agriculture report filed with the organization, a French intergovernmental disease information network, poultry in two villages in Liaoning Province of northeastern China fell sick with highly pathogenic avian influenza Sunday after exposure to wild birds.

The villages are in the cities of Fuxin and Jinzhou.

China's National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory in Harbin diagnosed the disease, the report said.

Authorities believe 11,590 birds in the affected areas are susceptible to the disease, and they destroyed 500,000 birds to prevent any disease spread, the farm ministry said.

They also have quarantined, disinfected and sprayed the affected areas. About 198 million animals have been vaccinated in the province.

This fall, China has reported other poultry bird flu outbreaks in Anhui and Hunan provinces plus the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

On Oct. 26, 8,940 poultry in another village in Liaoning Province died of bird flu and local authorities killed 369,900 birds in the Heishan County village to prevent the disease from spreading.

China has no reported cases of human infection of bird flu, which has occurred in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia since December 2003, with at least 62 of the 121 patients dying.

Quote from: rickjust on November 10, 2005, 08:43:17 AM
hi,
i am very much a newbie and i am aware that there are many more better shorting candidates out there. i have only ever shorted once before and that was a few days ago on sva.   i made a huge profit , of ........get ...this ..........52 cents. i had never done it before and i wanted to try it so i shorted 50 shares

rickjust,

Congratulations on your trade. 

There might be better short candidates out there, but the bird flu group certainly has been an area worth considering, and it would be hard to find many stocks that have been a better short over the past two weeks than NVAX. 

Here are my comments on NVAX from two weeks ago:

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 28, 2005, 02:30:35 PM

Quote from: puenthouse on October 28, 2005, 01:52:19 PM
I believe all this news that is coming out was forecasted and there fore not making that large of an impact. 

That reminds me of the market maxim: "When the news is great...it's too late."

In the late spring and through the summer, oil-related issues were the rage.  The price of crude oil continued to climb, but many of the stock issues topped out in early summer.

MPET, for example, rallied 300% in six short weeks, and that was it.  The rally was over.  While crude oil still is above $60, MPET nearly has had a parabolic return to where the rally began (see chart below).

NVAX, for example, has rallied 759% in the same period of time, about six weeks, that MPET rallied.

Although we will hear alot more news about bird flu and about contracts being awarded, etc., when I see a stock like SVA break serious support today, I have at least to consider the possibility that
"the news is great...but, it's too late." 

NVAX printed a high of 6.01 on October 26.  The low today was 2.99, for a better than 50% gain on the short side in only two weeks, if anyone shorted it. 

If anyone shorted NVAX at the November 1 Bush flu speech high of 5.05 on "news about contracts being awarded, etc," that's a 40% gain on the short side at today's 2.99 low.  Not bad.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:NVAX&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Quote from: Lucas Scott on November 09, 2005, 04:16:41 PM

QuoteI am going to hold and see what happens tomorrow. I expect tomorrow will be a small white candle.

Good call Luke!!

Applaud ;D  Today I sold the position I took on Friday for a small gain. Lunch money, no more. Now it's feeding time!

Luke Q

LukeQ,

lol on applauding yourself.   ;D

I forgot this morning to say good going with the call and with your trade, which I applaud because you posted both the buy and the sell in a timely fashion.  I find that helpful.  Thanks.

Just got my applaud/smite privliges.  Appluase to you for all the good TA I've learned from your posts.   :)

It seems you're very right about the bird flu stocks.  I'm still holding NVAX and it got creamed today.  I had tried to put in a stop this morning before I went out but I couldn't  because of the wierd bid/ask in pre-market. (it was 0 and 99).  TDwaterhouse has it that the stop price has to be .05 below the bid.  Same thing fhappened for HEB, another slaughter today.

Melf Elf, do you see them rebounding from here?  I have the immediate reaction to sell @ the open but I've  learned that panic selling is not the way to trade.  Also, the NVAX stock picking board has alot of members talking about going long.  I'd appreciate your advice on this.

SVA seemed to hold pretty strong today in ralation to NVAX and HEB.

Good luck all.   

Quote from: logocovet on November 10, 2005, 08:05:53 PM
I'm still holding NVAX and it got creamed today.  I had tried to put in a stop this morning before I went out but I couldn't  because of the wierd bid/ask in pre-market. (it was 0 and 99).  TDwaterhouse has it that the stop price has to be .05 below the bid

logocovet,

It's a shame that happened.  Yesterday morning's open in NVAX was a break of important support:

1. The prior low (October 28) of 3.37.
2. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 3.355.
3. Trendline 2 (T2).

QuoteMelf Elf, do you see them rebounding from here?

My standard response is "I have no idea...you're guess is as good as mine," and I mean that literally.  We can make "educated" guesses, certainly, but we're still guessing about the next move in a stock.

If this were yesterday morning, a good "educated" guess would have been that, since the October 28 low of 3.37 held on Wednesday (the low was 3.40), and since NVAX rallied a little into the close at 3.48 and held at trendline 2 (T2) support on a closing basis, it's a reasonable "educated" guess to expect NVAX to rally off that hold of support.

Reasonable guess, but NVAX closed down 14% yesterday.  :(

Your stop would have protected you against that kind of loss, which is why we use them, in case our "educated" guess is wrong.  Unfortunately, you weren't able to sell.

Quote  Also, the NVAX stock picking board has alot of members talking about going long.  I'd appreciate your advice on this.

There's been alot of speculation on the long side in NVAX.  Speculation about the next low.  Speculation about "buying more" as the stock goes down.  Looking for reasons to be bullish about the stock.  I would advise looking at the chart in an effort to see if all of that bullishness has been borne out.

In other words, be careful about automatically interpreting something as bullish or bearish.  For example, my understanding is that NVAX was listed at the top of Merrill Lynch's NNX (Nanotech Index) on November 9.  Is that bullish or bearish?  I don't know.  What was the market's reaction on November 10?  NVAX broke important support.  See what I mean?

Anecdotally, Merrill Lynch began the BHH (Business To Business HOLDRS) in February, 2000, at the height of the "B2B" internet craze. The BHH was a "had to own" when it came out.  "Bricks and sticks" companies were passe, and considered to be dinosaurs back then. The BHH topped out two weeks later at $111.00 and now is at $2.56, down 98%.

We don't want automatically to infer from that example anything terribly bearish for NVAX.  Let's just be aware that these things aren't automatically bullish, either.  We only want to say that the market's first reaction yesterday to NVAX's listing at the top of the NNZ wasn't bullish.

Another example: Institutions are said to have been accumulating NVAX.  Should we interpret that as bullish or bearish?  I don't know, but we do know that any positions that they have taken since October 18 are under water, as much as 50% under water if they bought the October 26 top, and as much as 40% under water is they bought Bush's "bird flu speech" top on November 1.

As far as your decision about NVAX is concerned, logocovet, here are some things to consider:

1. When NVAX broke T3 support on October 28, it found support at the 50% Fibonnaci retracement level (3.355...low was 3.37), and rallied for two days, back to the bottom of broken T3.

2. Absent a rally directly from here, these are some possible support levels:

a. 2.726 - the .618 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 10-11 highs, prior to the T3 acceleration, were 2.74 and 2.76, adding some additional possible support at this level)

b. 2.55 - the 50DMA

c. 2.10 - T1 support

d. 1.77 - the 200DMA

Good luck!



 

Thanks Melf Elf,

I put a stop @ 2.50, just below the 50dma.  I really have to learn to use stops more often.   NVAX has been shown to sell off in the later part of the week and rebound on Mondays.  Lets see if that holds up.  (do you usually put stops at support or just below it?)

I have a bad feeling though that NVAX has topped out and will go back to where it was before the bird flu speculation.  History seems to bet on this.

Still in SVA as I think it is the exception of the bird flu stocks.

Quote from: logocovet on November 11, 2005, 10:00:02 AM
Thanks Melf Elf,

I put a stop @ 2.50, just below the 50dma.  I really have to learn to use stops more often.

logocovet,

Yeah, stops help to prevent small losses from becoming big losses.  "Live to play another day."

Quote
(do you usually put stops at support or just below it?)

Yes.  Below a trendline or a prior low.  Like with DNDN, for example, I knew that I wanted out if 5.88-5.89 support that we talked about so much broke to the downside.

QuoteI have a bad feeling though that NVAX has topped out and will go back to where it was before the bird flu speculation.  History seems to bet on this.

It's something to keep in mind, given some of the examples that we've discussed.  When "everybody knows it," you at least want to know where the exit door is.

Remember the security stocks after 9/11?  Those also were momo-driven, a "had to own" and "a long-term hold."  Terrorism wasn't going away any time soon, and it hasn't.  But, how did that translate to the security stocks?

Identix (IDNX) was one of the high flyers in the group.   When the market finally opened in late September, 2001 after 9/11, IDNX gapped up at 8.00.  "Conventional wisdom" was that the company would have great earnings, given all of the security-related business that they would get.  "No stopping this stock!" and things like that.

IDNX had a big run after 9/11, but only for few months.

Four years later, IDNX still hasn't posted a profit in any the seventeen quarters since 9/11.  ???

Anyone who bought the gap up opening of 8.00 in late September, 2001 for a long-term hold was nailed right there.  IDNX is seriously under water, closing today at 4.44.  You don't hear much about IDNX anymore.

Melf,

Just sent you a personal message....had a few general questions.

Please reply at your convenience.

Thank you,  :)

Vic'

The whole world want it and we got it:

QuoteChina has its own version of bird flu drug - media
13 Nov 2005 07:04:49 GMT

Source: Reuters

BEIJING, Nov 13 (Reuters) - China has developed what it calls the equivalent of the anti-bird flu drug Tamiflu in preparation for a feared pandemic if the virus begins spreading among humans.

Zhong Nanshan, director of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases, was quoted in the Information Times newspaper as saying the drug would be effective in treating the virus.

"New progress will be achieved in the near future," the paper's Saturday edition reported Zhong as saying.

Shouldn't hurt the share price on Monday (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4981)

Also, the state coucil of China just allocated US$250M to fight Avian flu

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200511/11/eng20051111_220504.html


----------------------------
China's self-made human avian influenza vaccine ready for clinical test
         


China's self-made human avian influenza vaccine is waiting for the approval of a clinical test, said a health official Thursday in Beijing.

Preclinical experiments of the vaccine, which started in May 2004, have ended. A clinical test will be carried out as soon as the State Food and Drug Administration approves it, said Wang Yu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

The vaccine for human avian influenza was jointly developed by the center and a Chinese drug company. Clinical tests will further prove its safety and effectiveness, he said at the first China-Thailand-Vietnam workshop on prevention and control of human avian influenza.

Officials and experts from the Chinese Ministry of Health, the disease control and prevention center, the Ministry of Public Health of Thailand, the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology of Vietnam, Hong Kong and Macao are sharing information and techniques to curb human avian influenza on Thursday and Friday.

A cooperative mechanism is to be set up by the three countries soon and the workshop will be held every one or two months.

Source: Xinhua

Remember, a drug is different from a vaccine. What SVA is making is a vaccine to treat humna bird-flu. Wonder what the official means when he said a "chinese verison of the anti bird-flu drug Tamiflu".

is he talking about Sinovac's vaccine....coz' I dont think so.

just a thought.

Quote from: vic666 on November 13, 2005, 12:51:30 PM
Wonder what the official means when he said a "chinese verison of the anti bird-flu drug Tamiflu".

is he talking about Sinovac's vaccine....coz' I dont think so.

Good question I am also not sure but I really don't care. This dazzling baby is in bed with the Chinese Government. I would love if it is SVA's own vaccine as it could/will open new opportunities internationally but the main market is China and even if they have stolen it from Roche, Roche can't do a s... about it. You might not like it and it is certainly not very ethical but from a shareholder point of view stealing can be very profitable  ;)

I seem to remember that Microsoft stole Windows from Apple who stole it from XEROX and MSFT is the world largest company today :o

Mike

from another board:

absolutely without a doubt Sinovac IS THE ONE AND ONLY...

"Under the cooperation with the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), Sinovac is the only manafacture in commitment in the Key Technologies R&D Programme for the developed of Pandemic vaccine."

http://www.sinovac.com/R_D/AvianInfluenza/


and also read the 9/20 "UBS" PR

"As with other countries, the Chinese government has demonstrated its commitment to defeating the anticipated avian flu pandemic. Most recently they did this by granting funds to Sinovac for avian flu vaccine research and development. The amount of funds is not specified; rather they will be provided in stages to cover the entire research and development process. This is the first time a grant has been awarded to cover expenses from the earliest stages of an R&D project."

"According to the agreement between the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Sinovac in December 2004, Sinovac is responsible for avian flu vaccine research, development, application and production. Under the terms of the agreement, the new drug certificate, production license, and patents will all be applied for by Sinovac and as a result the commercial rights will be entirely owned by Sinovac."

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050920/205626.html?.v=1

and here is another piece of information which unfortunately is more scary:

QuoteVirus in Vietnam mutates: report

Some changes in gene segments 

HANOI: Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City Pasteur Institute has found that the bird flu virus strain H5N1 in the country has mutated to make it more dangerous, local newspaper Youth reported on Saturday.

There are some changes in gene segments of surface antigens HA and NA and some other gene segments of bird flu virus type A subtype H5N1 in Vietnam in early 2005, which indicates that the virus has been mutating to reproduce effectively in cell of mammals, and increase its attacking capability, according to results of the institute's research on 24 virus samples from infected poultry and people in the southern region between December 2003 and March 2005.

I am not sure how realiable the source is but if truth.....

Flu can jump to humans 'more easily'

Infected boy had no record of touching fowls

By Apinya Wipatayotin

Health experts yesterday urged the public to go on high alert against bird flu after an investigation of the latest bird flu patient, a 18-month-old toddler from Bangkok, suggested the lethal H5N1 avian flu virus could jump to humans much easier than before. Previously people picked up the virus from direct contact with infected birds, but the boy, Worawut Ruesrijan, had no record of touching fowls, even though he lived with chickens in his house.

He probably contracted the disease by accidentally touching chicken droppings, said Kumnuan Ungchusak, chief of the Public Health Ministry's Bureau of Epidemiology.
This meant a person could be infected with avian flu virus if he or she lived in a bird flu-contaminated environment, he said.

Basic health care practices, such as frequent hand-washing and avoiding close contact with fowls, were the most crucial safeguards, particularly for the elderly and children, who had weak antibodies against infectious diseases, said Dr Kumnuan.

Livestock Development Department chief Yukol Limlamthong said people's negligence in telling livestock and health officers about the death of fowls was a major obstacle to the control of the bird flu outbreak.
Mr Yukol accompanied health officials on a visit to Worawut's house in Bangkok's Klong Sam Wa district yesterday.
The Livestock chief said three roosters raised in the boy's house had died since last month, but the owners did not report the case to livestock officers until the boy developed flu-like symptoms. The area was not declared an outbreak zone, prompting residents to pay less attention to protecting themselves against bird flu.
The poultry owners claimed they did not contact the officers because the number of dead poultry was small. They also assumed the chickens died naturally because they were very old.
Worawut's aunt said she had never thought the roosters died of bird flu. She even threw away the chicken carcasses with her bare hands.

''In fact, during a seasonal outbreak like this, poultry owners must report incidents to officials as soon as possible even if only one bird dies at your house,'' Mr Yukol said.
He also stressed the need for backyard poultry raisers nationwide to keep the birds in a contained area to prevent them from being exposed to avian flu from the outside environment.
A doctor at Siriraj Hospital said Worawut's condition was improving. His infected lung had recovered rapidly due to fast detection and early treatment. However, he must be kept for a 21-day observation period in accordance with World Health Organisation recommendations.
Worawut is Thailand's 21st bird flu case since the H5N1 virus was first detected in January last year. Thirteen of those cases have been fatal. Four cases have been detected within the last month, and one person has died.
The boy developed high fever at the end of last month and was hospitalised at Siriraj on Nov 6. A Department of Medical Science laboratory test confirmed the boy was infected with the H5N1 virus on Friday.
''I am not aware of the disease because the place was free of the disease until last year. So I thought it would not happen to my family,'' said Worawut's aunt.
The boy's 65-year-old grandmother has been hospitalised for a lung infection. Her condition, however, was not critical. The initial lab test was not conclusive and more tests were needed, according to Dr Kumnuan.



http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/13Nov2005_news02.php

H5N1 mutation appears closer

The greatest fear of health professionals across the globe - the mutation of the bird flu H5N1 virus into a form transmissible between humans - appears to be closer to happening, according to a Vietnamese research study.

Chester Yung

Monday, November 14, 2005

The greatest fear of health professionals across the globe - the mutation of the bird flu H5N1 virus into a form transmissible between humans - appears to be closer to happening, according to a Vietnamese research study.
Cao Bao Van, director of the Molecule Biology Department of the Pasteur Institute, Vietnam's center for bird flu research, was quoted by Reuters as saying 24 samples of the virus taken from poultry and humans showed significant changes, indicating it is mutating into a form that could trigger a pandemic.
Reuters reported that Van was quoted in a state-run online site as saying the study showed an "antigenic shift" involving major changes of influenza surface proteins. These changes could result in the appearance of pandemic flu viruses.
At present, the virus is not easily transmissible between humans.
Van was quoted as saying the study had also found that another mutation allows more effective breeding of the virus in mammals.
But Van said the study has not yet concluded whether the virus could move easily between people.
According to the World Health Organization, the next influenza pandemic is not a question of "if" but "when."
Klaus Stohr, coordinator of the WHO's global influenza program, was quoted in the Houston Chronicle Sunday as saying: "The fear is that the virus will become transmissible from human to human. This fear is real, it's scientifically substantiated, and we have enough historical data to tell us that the pandemic that would come out of this mutation would lead to a global health emergency, with millions of deaths, a global spread in less than three months and people in the developing countries being hardest hit.

"It'd be inappropriate and wrong to disregard these signals. The chances of it causing a pandemic are logarithmically higher than the chances of it not going to cause a pandemic."

Scientists from Hong Kong University and the Chinese University of Hong Kong are looking at a range of infectious diseases and searching for cheap diagnostic tests that will aid poorer nations to cope with any outbreak.

The HKU and CUHK gained grants of HK$30 million and HK$25 million, respectively, after the SARS outbreak in 2003 to tackle infectious diseases on the scientific front.

A team of HKU microbiologists, led by Prof Guan Yi, has already collected more than 100,000 samples from birds in South China and Southeast Asia and managed to sequence the genetic codes for more than 250 strains of H5N1 - indicating how widespread bird flu is in the region and how the virus is mutating.

"Making a vaccine is only part of the solution. But to get there, we have to do a lot of research to find out what viruses there are and their differences," HKU Department of Microbiology professor Malik Peiris said.
Since the pandemic might not stem solely from the H5N1 virus, the CUHK team is focusing on the general prevention of infectious diseases.
It is also examining follow-up work with SARS patients, as this could provide significant reference in post-pandemic phase treatment.

"We are also looking to develop a cheaper way to diagnose and monitor diseases," said the director of the center for emerging infectious diseases, Prof Joseph Sung.

He said the current devices used for diagnostic tests cost millions of dollars and may be beyond the reach of poor countries, making early detection and isolation of any pandemic more difficult.

Sung said the CUHK is also examining the social and economic impact of infectious diseases.

As such, the psychological impact on SARS patients during rehabilitation is worth studying, Sung said, noting that the relevant study of the social and economic impact of infectious diseases can offer the government a bigger picture and help it formulate public health policy.
Many medical experts agree Hong Kong is better prepared for the next pandemic than many countries because of its SARS experience. Yet vaccine production remains a major concern in Hong Kong and throughout the world.
Peiris suggested that, as Hong Kong has one of the leading laboratories in the world, it could play a major role.
"We have the technology to make vaccines, but it doesn't help because we need to have a pharmaceutical industry to support it," he said.

"Singapore [and Taiwan have] put a huge amount of effort into building up a pharmaceutical industry. In this respect, Hong Kong is miles behind."
Currently, only a few companies in the world can develop vaccines for testing - Sanofi-Pasteur (France), Chiron Corp (US), ID Biomedical (Canada) and MedImmune (US).
The Chinese biotech company Sinovac is reportedly testing an H5N1 vaccine based on an influenza strain provided by the WHO in 2004.
During the global summit on bird flu in Geneva last week, WHO experts reported that about 900 million doses of H5N1 vaccine would be available within eight months of a pandemic breaking out. Meanwhile, Indonesia said a woman died of suspected bird flu Saturday, AFP reported. Jakarta's infectious diseases hospital spokesman Dr Ilham Patu said she lived close to a flock of backyard chickens that died suddenly.



http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=11&art_id=5604&sid=5461306&con_type=1

la-onda...from your above post...it might make sense to highlight the mention of SVA in the article, alongide giants like Roche, Sanofi-Aventis etc.

here it is

"Currently, only a few companies in the world can develop vaccines for testing - Sanofi-Pasteur (France), Chiron Corp (US), ID Biomedical (Canada) and MedImmune (US).
The Chinese biotech company Sinovac// is reportedly testing an H5N1 vaccine based on an influenza strain provided by the WHO in 2004."

We had a lot of bullish news last week on SVA (and bird flu stocks, in general), but the stocks didn't respond on the upside.  The market didn't perceive the new as bullish.

Early Friday morning, SVA went down rather swiftly to 4.89 support again, and once again, the bulls defended it.

The bears now have put in a "possible" second right shoulder of a H&S Top, to go along with the "possible" double neckline.

Failure to rally on bullish news isn't bullish.  NVAX losing 50% of its value in only two weeks on bullish bird flu news, in general, isn't bullish.  Failure to rally (and NVAX actually breaking support) with Cramer and others pumping bird flu stocks isn't bullish.

Bulls need to do something bullish here, to show us that all of the bullish news really is bullish.

A good start would be a print of 5.36, which would be a tick above Friday's high and it would be darned close to taking out the down trendline off the October high (looks to be somewhere between 5.36...5.40 on the log chart).  And, not just print it, but close up there, or higher.

Next would be to take out the November 8 "gap to crap" high of 5.85.  That would turn the bearish "possible" second right shoulder into a bullish "W"-bottom (see drawing in green at the bottom right of the chart).   

Buyyyyy

news :
BEIJING--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 14, 2005--Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX:SVA - News) announced that the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) has examined its Pandemic Influenza Vaccine R&D Project and accepted the results; clearing the way for continued sponsorship of the program.
China's MoST periodically evaluates the nationally funded Pandemic Influenza Vaccine R&D Project, and determines if sufficient progress has been made before Sinovac is permitted to continue. For the first critical step, top professionals from MoST conducted extensive evaluations of Sinovac's preclinical trials, and accepted all the results of this project to date.

Top professionals from MoST determined that Sinovac's method for developing an avian influenza vaccine for humans can be used for the prevention of influenza pandemic among humans, caused by the mutated strain from H5N1. Sinovac established in its preclinical trials that it has the ideal technological platform, personnel, equipment and management for the vaccine's development and production. Sinovac's preclinical trials have shown that its vaccine candidate has a high-quality safety and immunogenicity profile.

Sinovac developed its proprietary Pandemic Influenza Vaccine based on the NIBRG-14 virus strain provided by the British National Institute of Biological Standards and Control (NIBSC). Since April 2004, Sinovac completed its study of production processes; established a viral "seed bank" for vaccine production; and set up quality standards and testing methods.

Sinovac has applied for human clinical trials for its pandemic influenza vaccine with the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA). In preparation for approval, Sinovac has already produced sufficient pandemic flu vaccines to complete human clinical trials.

Successful vaccine research and development of a Pandemic influenza vaccine is Sinovac's second national achievement against emerging virulent infectious diseases. In 2004 Sinovac developed a safe and effective inactivated SARS vaccine, and became the first company in the world to successfully complete phase I clinical trials.

About Sinovac

Sinovac Biotech Ltd. is a world leader in the research, development, manufacture and commercialization of vaccines for endemic and pandemic viruses such as hepatitis and influenza, and for fast emerging viruses such as SARS and avian influenza (bird flu). The Company's objective is to provide Chinese children with the best vaccines in the world, and let children in the world use vaccines made in China.

Additional information about Sinovac is available on the Company website, http://www.sinovac.com

technicals :
good uptrend and MA50 as support

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 14, 2005, 04:12:18 AM
Bulls need to do something bullish here, to show us that all of the bullish news really is bullish.

Bulls are getting it done today.

Quote
A good start would be a print of 5.36, which would be a tick above Friday's high and it would be darned close to taking out the down trendline off the October high (looks to be somewhere between 5.36...5.40 on the log chart).  And, not just print it, but close up there, or higher.

5.36 was printed early today, and Thursday's high of 5.50 also was taken out this morning before a pullback to the the 5.19 gap area, and then an acceleration higher.

QuoteNext would be to take out the November 8 "gap to crap" high of 5.85.  That would turn the bearish "possible" second right shoulder into a bullish "W"-bottom (see drawing in green at the bottom right of the chart).   

The middle of the "W"-bottom pattern, 5.85, is just overhead now.   This is much better.

SVA currently is BID 5.78...ASK 5.80

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Basis the 15-minute chart, we've got a bullish Inverse H&S Pattern breakout at 5.50-5.51.  As long as SVA closes above that neckline on the 15-minute candlesticks, 6.19 is IN PLAY. 

Math:

5.50 - 4.89 (low of the Head) = . 0.69 points

0.69 + 5.50 = 6.19 Target

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=15&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

5.86 just got printed, taking out the middle of the "W"-bottom pattern at 5.85.

Quote2. Absent a rally directly from here, these are some possible support levels:

a. 2.726 - the .618 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 10-11 highs, prior to the T3 acceleration, were 2.74 and 2.76, adding some additional possible support at this level)

logocovet,

NVAX had a rough morning, but found support at 2.73 and has come back to 3.00.

Had to find this thread again.
Call it curiosity....as to who picked this stock before it made it
as a pick on the stock picking contest.
vic666 holding in the Stock Picking Contest,currently 4th Place ..Total Gain...17.94%

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 14, 2005, 02:57:58 PM
Basis the 15-minute chart, we've got a bullish Inverse H&S Pattern breakout at 5.50-5.51. 
As long as SVA closes above that neckline on the 15-minute candlesticks, 6.19 is IN PLAY. 

The bullish Inverse H&S target of 6.19 just MADE.  This is fun today.  ;)   


http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=15&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

So Melf Elf did you manage to get in? or do you feel the same as a good old fashion fundamentalist. You use so long time to analyse a stock that when you find out that it is a great buy you have already lost 20%?

I think we are both analysts compared to EliteG who just close his eyes and buy (all respect for him!!!).

I hope you are on board. Sinovac has everything going for them today we even got some technical support  ;)

Quote from: Michael on November 14, 2005, 03:47:23 PM


I hope you are on board. Sinovac has everything going for them today we even got some technical support  ;)

nice pop up today

Oh my Gosh!  Melf Elf: I wish I could read charts like you!  I have 4000 shares - where is the stock going now?....

Melf, I looked at your chart from 3 different angles and even tried squinting my eyes and staring at it with one eye shut, but I still don't see an inverted H&S on that chart :D

I'm back in at 6.12 on the little pullback just before the close. Most likely will be a short term trade but who knows. Right now I'm looking for a gap up tomorrow and we'll go from there. GO SVA!!!!

http://english.eastday.com/eastday/englishedition/node20676/userobject1ai1644788.html

Looks like clinical trial starts in a few days (or late Nov.)

More PRs should be on the way.  It is known that SVA has completed preclinical trials and applied to the govt to start clinical trials.  Considering today's PR, this application's approval is almost guaranteed. ( It would not make sense for the govt to say they are happy with SVA's current progress and then reject their application.) 

Today's PR also shows the close relationship SVA has with the Chinese govt.  The importance of this relationship cannot be overstated in a country like China. 

We are also awaitng the much talked about deal with Thailand. 

A PR is probably in the works. Yin is the CEO of SVA, and clinical tests start from late Nov.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-11/14/content_3778964.htm

Picture of SVA's bird flu vaccine:

http://english.people.com.cn/200511/15/eng20051115_221280.html

MelfElf....howz it going?

What does your TA tell you about the SVA's movement the rest of this week? Strong enough to test 52 week highs of $7.92, or do you see resistance at $6.65 where it tested but did not break through twice a couple of weeks back?

Thanks.  :)

Quote from: Lucas Scott on November 14, 2005, 06:13:28 PM
Melf, I looked at your chart from 3 different angles and even tried squinting my eyes and staring at it with one eye shut, but I still don't see an inverted H&S on that chart :D

Luke Q.,

Sorry that I don't have a way to draw the pattern on the intraday charts, which would be a lot easier than reading this, but here's the pattern, if you want to try again:

1. The left shoulder begins with the gap down from 5.51, four candles after 2:00PM on Tuesday (where it says "14" on the chart).

2. Just after noon on Thursday, SVA rallied to the gap at 5.50.  That's the first data point on the neckline.

3. SVA failed at the gap, and went down and formed the head early Friday morning on the re-test of critical support at 4.89.  That's the head.

4. Early yesterday morning, SVA printed the 5.36 that we were looking for, (took out the down trendline off the October high in the process, which we also were looking for), and went straight up to the Tuesday gap again, printing 5.51, and forming the second data point on the neckline.  (That's the big white candle on the chart).

If you draw a line now, straight across 5.50-5.51 from Tuesday's gap, you can see the Inv. H&S. 

5. The right shoulder formed from there.  It was a small Symmetrical Triangle (lower highs and higher lows) that broke out above the 5.50-5.51 neckline at 2:00PM, putting 6.19 IN PLAY.

Nice pattern. The target was MADE in about an hour and a half.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=15&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

fyi:
SVA: Jumps +7.29%; Vol +83%; Last 90 Min of Trading

Monday , November 14, 2005 16:23 ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX: SVA) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: SVA       @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE              $5.76         $6.18        +7.29%
VOLUME         1,120,600     2,048,000       +82.76%
#TRADES              442           836       +89.14%
DAY-HI             $5.76         $6.30       LATE-HI
DAY-LO             $5.18         $5.16           N/A

Good post, Melf Elf.

I wonder if this could have any influence on the sudden interest for SVA...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-11/14/content_3778964.htm

Quote from: cumulina on November 15, 2005, 08:18:15 AM
I wonder if this could have any influence on the sudden interest for SVA...

cumulina,

Thanks for the link to that article.  It's good to see SVA finally responding to good news.  That was a big concern that I had last week for the bird flu stocks, to have so much good news with no bullish response, and even breaks of support (NVAX), in the stocks.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 15, 2005, 08:33:11 AM
Sometimes on quick runs to the target, like this would be on another big rally today, the stock rallies just short of the target, then there is a pretty good pull back. 

The early morning quick run to the target ended at 6.50.  That was a gain of 33% in only two days, so profit-taking set in, and SVA pulled back 13% to 5.65, then closed at 5.80.

QuoteWhen it does happen, after I've seen the pullback, I've wished that I had gone ahead and taken the profit on the "close enough" approach to the target.  That's a trader's decision that we all have to make.  It's  something to consider today, particularly if we're at your 6.65, or at the 6.68-6.70 broken neckline re-test near the end of today's trading.

 

We didn't get to the 6.65 area or above, but you see what I meant here  :(

Traders "sold into strength" yesterday morning, which isn't unusal after the nice two-day gain.  What would have been unusual, would have been to see the 6.81 target get made yesterday, right after the 6.19 target was made the day before.  It usually isn't that easy.

The two-day rally of 33%, from 4.89 to 6.50, was 1.61 points.  Here are the standard Fibonnaci retracement levels:

.382% - 5.895 (We got that)
.500% - 5.695 (We went slightly below that, to 5.65)
.618% - 5.505

If SVA sells off any more from here, I would expect solid support to be at that .618% retracement level.  While some technicians consider retracements beyond .618% still to be acceptable for a pullback, I think most technicians don't like to see anything beyond the .618% level, before becoming concerned that it's something more than a normal retracement.

With SVA, what strengthens the case for the .618% retracement level of 5.505 being solid support on any further selloff, is that's the neckline of the Inverse H&S breakout on Monday, basis the intraday chart, which makes 5.505 DOUBLE support.

If 5.505 isn't support, especially on a closing basis, I would view SVA only as neutral.  That would be weak, after the very nice Four Bull Moves on Monday.

I like this consolidation the past two days, after the 33% run-up to 6.50. 

Basis the hourly chart, we've got a Symmetrical Triangle forming so far, which "should" resolve in a continuation to the upside since SVA broke out to the upside out of the "W"-bottom.

If SVA should sell off from here, picture what this chart would like if we sell off to the .618 Fibonacci retracement level of 5.505: we'd have a bull flag...lower highs and lower lows.

Overall, SVA looks fine as long as 5.505 would hold on any re-test.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/17/content_495404.htm

Vaccine team prepared if virus mutates
By Zhang Feng (China Daily)
Updated: 2005-11-17 05:56


The scientist who led the team which produced China's first vaccine for human infections of bird flu has said his company is ready even if the virus mutates.

"The vaccine we have now is specifically against H5N1 bird flu. But we are also capable of producing vaccines against other types of influenza if the virus develops into other forms," said Yin Weidong, managing director of Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech Co Ltd.

Yin, the leader of the expert group that began to develop the vaccine on March 17, 2004, told China Daily in an exclusive interview that his company is awaiting official approval for testing on humans.

His enterprise has set up all facilities for production, quality control and vaccine storage, Yin said.

The original virus used for the research was obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) laboratories, and it was proved that it can cause bird flu in chicken, rats and other animals.

Scientists also proved that the vaccine developed from the H5N1 virus could cause anti-bodies in rats and was effective in animal tests, Yin noted.

It is based on this experience that Yin is confident of developing other vaccines against various types of bird flu.

Experts are getting set for human testing, which might be carried out in some big hospitals in Beijing, but no volunteers have been recruited yet.

Lin Jiangtao, the top doctor in respiratory diseases at Sino-Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, said that he was preparing for the test.

Lin was the lead doctor in human tests of a vaccine against SARS, which was also developed and produced by Yin's enterprise.

Yin said although the bird flu vaccine cannot be used before it passes human tests, it might be injected among some high-risk groups such as doctors and poultry workers should a human pandemic break out, Yin said.

So far the only available medication which has been proven to be effective against bird flu is the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, produced by Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche Holding AG.

Melf Elf,

My TA consists of glancing @ StockTA and seeing if there is more green or red  ;)

Right now, SVA looks pretty good as there is alot of green.   :)  Also MACD crossover and no resistance until 7.76.

Thanks for the NVAX advice.  Your were quite right about it finding support.  Right now  I have a stop @ 3.40 below pretty solid support @ 3.44.  What do  U think?

The Chinese govt admited today to their first case of bird flu.  This means that they were lying before when they said that the girl in question DID NOT have bird flu.  We're are not sure how far the lie goes.  This is very interesting..

The unofficial Chinese news site Boxun.com, which was the first to break news about SARS in China, yesterday published a detailed breakdown of human bird flu infections in the country, including claims that there has been human to human spread, widespread quarantine, and at least 310 deaths so far this year. If true, the report would be the first indication that the situation in the country is far more serious than the Chinese government is willing to admit. China officially claims to have had no human infections.

http://www.iflu.org/?p=9263

Quote from: logocovet on November 16, 2005, 08:52:53 PM
Melf Elf,

My TA consists of glancing @ StockTA and seeing if there is more green or red  ;)

logocovet,

lol.  Sounds good to me.  The simpler the better, eh?   ;)

QuoteRight now, SVA looks pretty good as there is alot of green.   :)  Also MACD crossover and no resistance until 7.76.

Yeah, SVA is doing fine.  We had a gap up this morning, out of the Symmetrical Triangle that I mentioned yesterday.  We're now working on another pattern, an Ascending Triangle. A breakout is above the flat top: the two highs at 6.50, so a print of 6.51.

Math:

6.50 High - 5.65 low (on November 15) = 0.85 points

6.50 + 0.85 points = Target: 7.35 IN PLAY

We might have to go down first, and fill this morning's gap, but this looks fine.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Quote
Thanks for the NVAX advice.  Your were quite right about it finding support.  Right now  I have a stop @ 3.40 below pretty solid support @ 3.44.  What do  U think?

Glad that it worked out for you.  On the 10-minute chart, short-term support is 3.33.  It's been hit four times since yesterday afternoon at 2:30. Personally, I'd use a break below that.

Melf Elf - I'm very interested in your comments here, but are you quite sure about what you said here: (I don't know how to insert a quote, so I'll just cut/paste)

"Glad that it worked out for you.  On the 10-minute chart, short-term support is 3.33.  It's been hit four times since yesterday afternoon at 2:30. Personally, I'd use a break below that."

I don't understand what you mean?

I really do not hope that SVA will see 3.33 again...At least not as long as I own it.  ;)

Oooops! My mistake.  ;D After posting, I realize that you were talking about NVAX in that part of your post.

:-[ = (Embarrassed.)

check this link out: (gotta zoom onto the coat pocket of the premier to be able to see
"S I N O V A C" label).


http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/18/content_495759.htm

I mean, c'mon, how often do you see the country's leader visit a Chinese company whose shares are publicly traded on the American markets???

How cool is that?

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 17, 2005, 03:34:33 PM

Yeah, SVA is doing fine.  We had a gap up this morning, out of the Symmetrical Triangle that I mentioned yesterday.  We're now working on another pattern, an Ascending Triangle. A breakout is above the flat top: the two highs at 6.50, so a print of 6.51.

Math:

6.50 High - 5.65 low (on November 15) = 0.85 points

6.50 + 0.85 points = Target: 7.35 IN PLAY

We might have to go down first, and fill this morning's gap, but this looks fine.

I very much like how SVA has been acting lately.  Nice consolidation of the recent gains. 
It's knocking on the door for another breakout, above the top of the Ascending Triangle,
which is 6.50. 

SVA currently is BID 6.46...ASK 6.47.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Breakout of the Ascending Triangle at 2:07PM, so we've now got two upside targets.  This Ascending Triangle breakout puts 7.35 IN PLAY.  We'll see if we get follow-through, but this is nice chart action, as it stands.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 18, 2005, 02:12:24 PM
Breakout of the Ascending Triangle at 2:07PM, so we've now got two upside targets.  This Ascending Triangle breakout puts 7.35 IN PLAY.  We'll see if we get follow-through, but this is nice chart action, as it stands.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Very Nice call Melf Elf!!!  There are a lot of great people in this forum who knows either fundamentals/technical analysis or sometimes both. 
I enjoy your posts. Keep up the good work!

Have you seen the latest news on SVA dated November 19, 2005:

The Beijing-based vaccine producer Sinovac Biotech, the first in the world to develop SARS vaccine, said Friday it has made preparations to produce human-use bird flu vaccine in mass quantity.

Sinovac has installed a special production line for the human-use bird flu vaccine, said Yin Weidong. general manager of the company, which is working with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention to research bird flu human vaccine.
"We have applied for human clinical trials for the vaccine with the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration and the vaccine can be put into production once the clinical trials complete," said Yin, adding the price of the vaccine could be lower than the commonly-used flu vaccines.

Chinese scientists have developed a bird flue vaccine for human use and will carry out clinical tests in days.

"Tests show that the vaccine is highly safe," said Yin.

Founded in 2001, Sinovac, known in China as Beijing Kexing Bioproducts Limited Company, focuses on manufacturing and marketing human-use vaccines and related products for infectious diseases such as Hepatitis A and Hepatitis B, influenza and SARS.

The company was designated to cooperate with the state disease control and prevention center to carry out the research and development for human-use bird flu vaccine, to be used for preventing the disease among humans, since the epidemic among birds was first found in March 2004.

"We get the virus samples from the lab of the influenza center under the World Health Organization and the research is going on well," said Yin.

"If the bird flu virus mutates, we can develop new vaccines in four months," said Yin.

Millions of chickens, ducks, geese and other poultry have been culled after bird flu outbreaks were reported in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui provinces this year.

China's health authorities have confirmed on Wednesday the first two human infection cases of bird flu in the country, and enhanced efforts to prevent and control the epidemic.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao inspected the workshops of bird flu vaccine and medicine for human use in Sinovac on Thursday and called for new progress on the research and development of the bird flu vaccine.

News keeps coming out about SVA.

One good website to check frequently is:

http://www.biomedicalstocks.com/avianflu.asp

I don't know how often WHO updates their alerts on the website, but here is the current:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=9744)
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

Another site with wurrysome news is this:

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

...where you can find a map showing the spreading of Avian Flu month by month... :o

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=9745)
Color coded circles for wild bird H5N1:(confirmed or suspected in confirmed location)
May = Blue June = Orange July = Yellow August 15 = Green August 31 = Red September = Purple
October = White Current = Azure
Green or Red squares are unconfirmed bird deaths in unconfirmed locations

The Yahoo board for SVA is a very sober one, providing good links and surprisingly little of the trashy remarks otherwise common to Yahoo-boards.

I added some SVA friday, unfortunately I think that this stock is one that will rise a lot. Unfortunately - because that might be because the virus is mutating and spreading.

It does puzzle me that a vaccine has been found, and can be produced.
Something is not right.
Would it not be nessescary to have samples of the mutated (person-to-person) form of the virus, in order to produce a vaccine for it?
But maybe there has already been person-to-person cases?
Maybe the governments are a little behind on reporting fatalaties?
http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.H5N1LiaoningDeathListBoxun

If the H5N1 is as bad as it seems, and if it spreads as fast as it seems...Then I'm really more inclined to go cash, stock up on food, water and candles - and go hybernate!
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/files/ComingPandemic.pdf

I'm getting a bit scared and would like some reassurance that this thing is not going to turn our world upside-down.

Sorry if I have ruined your sunday.

These two looks interesting:

:o
"H5N1 infections in humans can cause serious disease and death. An inactivated vaccine to protect humans against influenza A (H5N1) is not yet available, but a candidate vaccine is undergoing human clinical trials in the United States. The H5N1 viruses currently infecting birds and some humans in Asia are resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, two antiviral medications commonly used to treat influenza. The H5N1 viruses are susceptible to the antiviral medications oseltamivir and zanamivir, but the effectiveness of these drugs when used for treatment of H5N1 virus infection is unknown. For more information about influenza antiviral drugs, see http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/treatment"

http://www.cdc.gov/travel/other/avian_influenza_se_asia_2005.htm


:o
"Influenza Vaccine Development and Testing: Leveraging scientific expertise, the United States and China will work together to evaluate, improve and expedite the production of human and animal vaccines against influenza in order to prepare for and respond to an influenza pandemic. The United States and China will jointly perform research on human and animal virus samples in order to develop human and animal vaccines. The United States is prepared to provide technical assistance for influenza vaccine development and on quality-assurance for vaccine production and testing, as well as financial assistance for supplies and equipment."

and the last sentence:

"The United States will work with China to meet regulatory certification requirements so that China can supply vaccine regionally or globally."

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2005/57157.htm

Human vaccines for bird flu granted fast-track checks.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-11/20/content_3806817.htm

Once SVA is granted this status, presumably within a few weeks, people will jump in to fund its 20M doses influenza vaccine facility, which can also be used for bird flu. The sell price of an influenze flu vaccine in China is US$10, which gives a $200M revenue with a huge profit margin. This is on top of Hep-A/B vaccine revenue it is ramping up. SVA closed Friday with a market cap of US$236M

Bird flu or not, SVA is hugely undervalued.

Just watched a round table on "Meet The Press" which included Sec M. Levitt, Dr. M. Ryan, World Health Org, Dr. Fauci,National Institue of Health, And Gerberding of Center for Disease Control. Major points made in my opinion were:
A. We need a vaccine Tamiflu is not the answer.
B. Must significantly improve our prodution capacity with emphasis on cellular development
C. Must streamline movement through FDA
D.Must remove liabilty problems for providers
E. Statement by Fauci that we have a vaccine in testing, but could not provide a name.
F. No companies or Country where disclosed.
G. Russert did not press china development issues. When he asked Fauci about China Fauci responded with his concern for tight safety issues compared to FDA standards. Later Sec Levitt states we're going to reduce the time for FDA approval. I got the feeling that the goal was to show that U.S. agencies were the ones to solve this problem. Why no mention of today's commentary regarding US-China cooperation. Struck me as strange.
H. 3-5 years to provide 300mil doses. Big business for someone.
One must be concerned when a half hour conversation between the four most powerful leaders in US regarding this issue provide what many would call Spin.
Just my thoughts but this is a real problem. Real problems lead to real business. SVA and NVAX will be in the news for some time to come.

Just read an article in Esquire on why there won't be a  Bird Flu epidemic.

http://www.keepmedia.com/pubs/Esquire/2005/12/01/1078552

NEWS OUT (posted from brandyjoco, now again with LINKs  ;) )

1.)
China prepare to mass-produce bird flu vaccine for humans font size 
The Beijing-based vaccine producer Sinovac Biotech, the first in the world to develop SARS vaccine, said Friday it has made preparations to produce human-use bird flu vaccine in mass quantity.
Sinovac has installed a special production line for the human-use bird flu vaccine, said Yin Weidong. general manager of the company, which is working with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention to research bird flu human vaccine.
"We have applied for human clinical trials for the vaccine with the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration and the vaccine can be put into production once the clinical trials complete," said Yin, adding the price of the vaccine could be lower than the commonly-used flu vaccines.
Chinese scientists have developed a bird flue vaccine for human use and will carry out clinical tests in days.
"Tests show that the vaccine is highly safe," said Yin.
Founded in 2001, Sinovac, known in China as Beijing Kexing Bioproducts Limited Company, focuses on manufacturing and marketing human-use vaccines and related products for infectious diseases such as Hepatitis A and Hepatitis B, influenza and SARS.
The company was designated to cooperate with the state disease control and prevention center to carry out the research and development for human-use bird flu vaccine, to be used for preventing the disease among humans, since the epidemic among birds was first found in March 2004.
"We get the virus samples from the lab of the influenza center under the World Health Organization and the research is going on well," said Yin.
"If the bird flu virus mutates, we can develop new vaccines in four months," said Yin.
Millions of chickens, ducks, geese and other poultry have been culled after bird flu outbreaks were reported in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui provinces this year.
China's health authorities have confirmed on Wednesday the first two human infection cases of bird flu in the country, and enhanced efforts to prevent and control the epidemic.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao inspected the workshops of bird flu vaccine and medicine for human use in Sinovac on Thursday and called for new progress on the research and development of the bird flu vaccine.
Source: Xinhua

link: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200511/19/eng20051119_222452.html

2)
Chinese Prime Minister has visited SVA:
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200511/18/eng20051118_222123.html

BEIJING, Nov. 20 (Xinhuanet) -- Human vaccines for
bird flu and other epidemics will go through
fast-track government examination procedures for
timely production to combat the virus, according to a
notice issued by China's State Food and Drug
Administration (SFDA) on Saturday.

SFDA has initiated a set of special procedures to
quicken the examination and approval of medicines for
treating epidemics that trigger public health concern,
said the notice.

Human-use vaccines for bird flu developed by Chinese
companies will enjoy the privilege, while SFDA will
conduct feasibility study before the application is
filed and learn about the progress of the medicine's
research and development in the early stage of
medicine registration application.

Processing application, on-the-spot check,
technological examination and evaluation, registration
examination and follow-up monitoring of the medicines
will be carried out immediately after receiving the
registration application, according to the notice.

Beijing-based vaccine producer Sinovac Biotech, the
first in the world to develop a SARS (severe acute
respiratory syndrome) vaccine, has applied to SFDA for
human clinical tests on human-usebird flu vaccine. The
company said it would start mass production once the
clinical trials are successful. Enditem

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Sinovac_Investors_Group/message/3288

Quote
The W-bottom pattern that we discussed yesterday morning took 12 days from the break of DOUBLE support at 5.75 on October 28 to emerge and to break out yesterday to the upside.

The pattern target of 6.81 is IN PLAY, and the time estimation for reaching the target would be 12 days hence, or no later than Friday,  December 1

The pattern target of 6.81 MADE at the open, well ahead of schedule.

QuoteJust want to point out BBC, another chinese equity.  Not only is it undervalued, but it is growing and profitable.  I don't expect any movement any time soon, but it will pop some day... I believe it's one to keep on the radar screens.  Any of the experts on the board feel like doing a quick TA on it?

Just a quick note... BBC has been up over 20+% the last few days and has just broken out to new highs.  Wish I could have picked it for the contest..... sigh.  (It didn't have enough average daily volume last month).

 :-*  8)  ;D

BBC up 33% today on 10x average volume :)  Ok, I know it's off-topic, but I just had to give myself a pat on the back for buying the stock in the mid $6's :) :)  And I'd be kicking butt in the contest if it only had traded 100k/avg shares per day in October.  Darn!  ;)  Oh well, can't complain, KOMG is doing well too.  Now if only MESA would stop dropping like a rock, I would be thrilled... too much to ask for, perhaps?  :)

SVA did really well today. Almost closed at HOD...

^ Yes, nice close! And RSI is still in the sweet spot at 64.3. My target sell price is $7.75, a retest of the mid-October high.

When that time comes I think I will look at the chart and put a tight stop. Who knows ?  Maybe it will blow through that last top. Right now the chart seems very strong...

I have no idea where this could go, but with news coming out several times a day there shouldn't be any reason for it to go anywhere but - up?

I was pretty impressed to see it stay above 7.- ... not to mention the nice trades A.H.

(I must admit that to me it's a weird feeling hoping that SVA will continue up. I hope they'll have a lot of orders to fill, for emergency stockpiling only!)

SVA: Short Interest UP 227.5% to 841.2K in Nov 2005

Monday , November 21, 2005 16:17 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX: SVA) INCREASED 227.5% to 841,243 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.

SYMBOL     OCTOBER        NOVEMBER        CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
SVA              256,856         841,243        +584,387      +227.52%           1
Based on SVA's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,103,500, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.


Public Companies Associated with this story:
(AMEX: SVA)       

Knobias Subject Codes Associated with this story:
Short Interest       


  Content transmitted by Knobias.com Copyright © 2005 

When short interest goes up - what does that do to the stock price short term?

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 18, 2005, 02:12:24 PM
Breakout of the Ascending Triangle at 2:07PM, so we've now got two upside targets.  This Ascending Triangle breakout puts 7.35 IN PLAY.  We'll see if we get follow-through, but this is nice chart action, as it stands.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

The 7.35 target MADE at 10:01AM

Quote from: brandyjoco on November 22, 2005, 09:02:58 AM
When short interest goes up - what does that do to the stock price short term?

brandyjoco,

It helped us to get all three of our upside pattern targets that we identified.  When a stock is as bullish as SVA is, the shorts are under serious pressure.  They are forced to become BUYERS of the stock, in order to cover their shares that they sold short.

So, in addition to the bulls who are buyers, we also have bears who are forced to beome buyers, as well.  They don't want to be buyers, but they are forced to buy, in order to cover their short postion.  Lots of buyers, which helps to send the stock higher.

If anyone shorted SVA, say at 5.00, back when it was testing key support, at today's target of 7.35 they have a "paper loss" of 47% which, of course, is painful, and it puts them under tremendous pressure to buy.  If the stock goes higher from here, their losses become much worse.

You don't want to short a stock that is in an uptrend, especially one like SVA, that recently has enjoyed repeated upside pattern breakouts.

"Don't fight the trend."

Melf - good call on the 7.35 target. Seems like bears are taking back control now. I am exiting my position.

I'm out also ...

Quote from: Lucas Scott on November 22, 2005, 03:40:02 PM
Melf - good call on the 7.35 target. Seems like bears are taking back control now. I am exiting my position.

LukeQ,

Thanks.  We've made 3 upside targets, so it looks like some profit-taking has set in. 

See the blue horizontal line on the chart?  That was another upside breakout, at about 6.50.  Looks like we're re-testing that, after the 7.35 target got made.

All was well with most of my stock, so I took some time off from the computerscreen.

Had a nice walk on the beach with my 6 month old dog, who found all kinds of good stuff to roll himself in.  :P

Came back and checked my account... :o WOW!

What happened?

I haven't seen that kind of action on stocks since the terror-bombings in London!

I really hope that drop today around 3pm. was just temporarely manipulation, and that it'll right itself again this or next week. ???

Was this the "big boys" going for the stop-losses?

I can see no news other than all the good stuff coming out about fast-track etc.

Now I'm biting a nail or two...

Since my first post on this thread about the break of of DOUBLE support at 5.75 on October 28, we've had four opportunities to exit SVA with a profit: at that break of 5.75, and then at each of the three upside targets that MADE, most recently, yesterday's 7.35 target.

"Plan your trade...and trade your plan" - Frederick Ramsburg

"Fail to plan...plan to fail" - fill_the-gap (Jeff)

The reason that I go to such length in my posts (when time permits) regarding support/resistance levels, patterns and targets, risk: reward ratios etc. is to help us understand the trade: why we're taking the trade...what is our expectation for the trade...where is our stop loss, etc...

With that kind of understanding, we're not sitting in a trade without any idea of what we're doing.

Yesterday's candlestick demonstates why I say, "It's a good idea to take profits when targets are MADE."  From the 7.34 target, SVA sold off about 10% into the close, so if you sold at the target, and re-entered at the close, you saved ourselves that 10%.

Often, it doesn't work out that way, and the stock goes higher, but "you aren't going to get hurt taking a profit."  When we see it go higher after we sold it, we tend to say "Coulda... shoulda...woulda" made MORE money if I held, but the other side of that coin is what we saw yesterday; a pretty good selloff.

Taking profits as targets get MADE helps us with the "fear/greed" principle that always is at work.  When our stock isn't going up, we fear that we'll lose money.  When it does go up and makes a target, the greed factor tends to set in, and we want MORE money.   ;)

Just some Trader To Trader (T2T) discussion, if it helps anyone.

from yahoo SVA board:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=sva,uu[g,a]dhclyyay[dc][pc20!c50!c200!i!f][vc60][iul14!ub14!uah12,26,9!ua12,26,9!li14,3!lh14,3!lp14,3,3!lp5,3,3!le12,26,9!ld20!lyb20,2.0!lc20!lk14!lya7,14,28!lf!lg!lh45,17!lv25!lw25][j57658942,y]&listNum=1

;)

 ;)

Sinovac steps up hunt for flu jab
By Andrew Yeh in Beijing
Published: November 28 2005 02:00 | Last updated: November 28 2005 02:00

Sinovac Biotech, a medical company backed by the Chinese central government, is stepping up efforts to produce a human avian flu vaccine, called Panflu, for an emergency national stockpile, its top executive said.

Managing director Yin Weidong told the Financial Times that Sinovac would be capable of producing mass quantities of Panflu on just a few days' notice once Beijing approved the vaccine.


http://news.ft.com/cms/s/8893fc8e-5fb3-11da-a628-0000779e2340.html

short interst link (more detailed):
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=97600785f06345a569dd309f95897980&symbol=sva&submit=Enter

Bought SVA at 5.65, near the 50DMA.  At today's low of 5.62 at 1:30PM, SVA is down almost 25% off the recent high of 7.44.

I like that entry Melf Elf, looks like we may have a bit of a symmetric triangle forming.  I may join you tomorrow, provided it does not look like it will go below 5.55.

A friend was telling me tonight about a site called tradesports.com, a stock market-like exchange for betting on sports and other things. I was checking it out and saw that one thing you can buy or sell is a bet on whether a case of Asian bird flu will be confirmed in the U.S. 

The bid-ask on a bird flu confirmation by March 31, 2006 was 34.0x36.4. The payout is $100. So basically (if I understand it correctly) you could pay $36.40 for a contract and, if a case of the H5N1 bird flu was confirmed by 3/31/06, you could sell the contract for $100. OR you could sell a contract for $34.00 and pocket the premium if no case were reported by 3/31/06. If a case was confirmed, you would have to close your position by buying back the contract for ~$100.

Just thought I'd share. I doubt we get a bird flu case here anytime soon. I'm tempted to open an account and sell a few of those contracts.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on November 29, 2005, 08:44:43 PM
I like that entry Melf Elf, looks like we may have a bit of a symmetric triangle forming. 

Scotsman,

SVA closed at 5.61, within a penny of the 50DMA, at 5.62. 

Below that, we've got the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) which could provide support.  It comes in today, November 30, at 5.485.

Below that, the trendline (dark blue line) off the mid-August low comes in today, November 30th, at 5.40.  That isn't a validated trendline (there are only 2 "hits"), but I'm going to use a close below that as my stop, to limit my risk on the trade to about 5%.

Be prepared for their private placement like AOB, VPHM, ... did recently.

I believe that SVA will have one or two pretty soon.

could this be a good short term short play again?
swing chart below

news:
Sinovac near choosing Beijing hospital for bird flu vaccine-official

Monday , December 05, 2005 04:08 ET

By Staff Reporter
BEIJING, Dec 05, 2005 (XFN-ASIA via COMTEX) -- Chinese pharmaceutical firm Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX SVA) will soon announce the name of a Beijing hospital which will be the site of its initial stage human trials for a bird flu vaccine, a company official said.

"We are currently in intensive talks with a candidate hospital in Beijing that possesses all the necessary facilities, but final authorization has not yet been given," Lu Zhenyou, company spokeswoman, told XFN-Asia.

China's State Food and Drug Administration last month authorized Sinovac to commence clinical trials on humans for its bird flu vaccine prototype -- Panflu.

"Sinovac is now in the later stages of research into human clinical trials. This is a critical project and we will soon finish a series of preparatory phases before beginning with full clinical trials," Lu said.
She was quoted by local media shortly after clinical testing authorization as saying that it might take at least a year before the company's pandemic influenza vaccine finishes scheduled stage two clinical trials.
"The first stage will involve a small corps of volunteers with the emphasis on ensuring the safety of the vaccine and evaluating any possible reactions or side effects. The second stage will invite more volunteers and determine appropriate dosages as well as study longer-term effects," Lu said.
She added that Sinovac and a group of government scientists will select 100 volunteers aged between 18 and 60 to comprise the first clinical trial group.
If approved, the vaccine would first be given to high-risk groups such as veterinary, laboratory and medical workers as well as poultry farmers in afflicted regions, the company said on its website, adding that the project is the result of a 21-month joint development program between Sinovac and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Lu said that while Panflu targets the H5N1, or bird flu, strain of viruses, the company's product will also be effective against mutated forms of the pathogen as variant forms of the strain could be manually supplanted into the core of the vaccine.
It is believed that Roche's Tamiflu antiviral would be the most effective drug currently on the market at counteracting any H5N1 pandemic among humans.
The Swiss drugmaker has reportedly allowed Shanghai Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd, parent of Shanghai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (SHA 600849), to produce Tamiflu as a generic drug.
"We produce a vaccine, Roche produces a cure," Lu said, adding that there is no competitive overlap between the two firms as Sinovac focuses solely on vaccines.
"We have no plans at this time to develop medicines for curing ailments of any kind," she said.
"Our development and production processes have been completely in-house so there has been no possibility of IPR issues or complaints from other companies," Lu said.
While Lu declined to disclose investment amounts, she did say that the Chinese government was underlining its intense interest in getting the project off the ground with its levels of financial support to date.
"We cannot offer specific investment figures or breakdowns at this time, but I can say that government investment in the production of Panflu is greater than 50 pct of the total," Lu said.
She said pricing considerations for the vaccine have yet to be factored in and finalized.
"We plan to make the price of our bird flu vaccine no more expensive than the current price of existing season flu vaccines in China. But our determination of appropriate dosage levels will bring more clarity to the cost per individual question," she said.

China's ministry of agriculture announced over the weekend that another outbreak of bird flu had appeared in the far western region of Xinjiang, bringing the total number in the country this year to 30.
The outbreak was the ninth to have hit Xinjiang this year, making the region one of the hardest hit by bird flu. The disease has killed more than 60 people in Asia since 2003.
Some health officials fear that the virus could mutate to the extent where it is easily transmitted from human to human, an event that could lead to a global pandemic capable of killing hundreds of millions of people.
Sinovac reported a 2004 net loss of 4.95 mln usd against a loss of 500, 000 a year earlier. Revenue in 2004 more than doubled year-on-year to 6.45 mln.

[email protected]
ap/wk
MMMM

(C) 2005 XFN, Inc. All rights reserved.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.e521afefd55d103cf11052c5e34f6eb9ef7077751715bcb2162187943855d3c3

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 30, 2005, 06:01:58 AM
Below that, the trendline (dark blue line) off the mid-August low comes in today, November 30th, at 5.40.  That isn't a validated trendline (there are only 2 "hits"), but I'm going to use a close below that as my stop, to limit my risk on the trade to about 5%.

Sold SVA at 5.37.  Loss 5%.

Friday's 5.44 close was below both the up trendline and the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) at 5.485.

SVA might be a good rebound play if the support at 5 or so holds..

Bought 1,000 @ 4.95

Thought I might jump in with 800@ $4.95 :)

Too soon for me to buy...Expect further decline before NEW bottom...Maybe $4.00 is bottom...Look for a sustained rally before jumping back in...Long term jewel... ;D

Repost from Technical Analysis folder on Wolfe Waves and Gartleys:

Quote from: thai626 on December 08, 2005, 10:47:35 AM
Here is a wolfe wave setup:  Points 1, 2, 3 and 4 are already setup.  Point 5 looks like it may be coming very soon. 

thai,

Nice work.  Applause. 

I was looking at SVA from the standpoint of a possible Bullish Gartley. If 4.82-4.85 support doesn't hold here, it would be interesting if we decline to your Point #5 and reach 4.34 and hold there, which would be a symmetry of both price and time. 

If that occurs, and SVA holds near 4.34 and rallies, that would complete your Wolfe Wave and also complete the Bullish Gartley.  I'm not sure if this is a valid Gartley since the ratios weren't quite right.
Just something to watch for if SVA continues to decline here.

I'm not quite sure what you guys are talking about ( the technical stuff  ;) ) but todays news should do something to SVA, I think. It's up about 10% in pre-market...


Sinovac Receives Government Funding for Pandemic Flu Vaccine Research and Development
Friday December 9, 8:13 am ET


BEIJING, Dec. 9 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Amex: SVA - News) announced it has received RMB7,000,000 (USD$867,000) from China's Ministry of Science and Technology for the preclinical trials R&D of its proprietary Pandemic flu vaccine (Panflu(TM)) for humans.
ADVERTISEMENT


Since April 2004, Sinovac has received over USD$1,000,000 from different departments of Chinese government for its pandemic flu vaccine R&D. This government funding to Sinovac, more than any other vaccine project for its study in preclinical stage to date, is expected to continue.

This work has a high priority, because of a possible flu pandemic. Most health officials estimate a flu pandemic would last a year or more, and millions of lives would be at risk. One of the most effective countermeasures against pandemic flu is to manufacture mass quantities of vaccines as quickly as possible.

The Chinese government holds great expectations for Sinovac's successful development of a safe and efficacious pandemic flu vaccine for humans. Sinovac's goal is to contribute to the Chinese and international public health emergency.

Sinovac CEO and Director, Mr. Weidong Yin commented, "We are moving quickly in the face of a possible pandemic, but not cutting corners on safety. Everyone here at Sinovac takes very seriously, their commitment towards global health, while providing returns to our investors. We also work together to boost global capacity for pandemic flu vaccine."

Sinovac's vaccine includes an adjuvant (aluminum) to boost the immune response. By increasing the immune response, smaller doses of vaccine are necessary; making it possible to produce more doses quickly.

Quote from: cumulina on December 09, 2005, 08:38:53 AM
I'm not quite sure what you guys are talking about ( the technical stuff  ;) )

cumulina,

We're trying to figure where SVA might find support if 4.82-4.85 support fails  ???

Quote
but todays news should do something to SVA, I think. It's up about 10% in pre-market...


Sinovac Receives Government Funding for Pandemic Flu Vaccine Research and Development
Friday December 9, 8:13 am ET

Thanks for that news.  I kind of hate to see SVA gap up like that at the open into resistance (5.525-6.145).  If it can blast its way through all of that resistance, then it's okay, but from this position (below support), a gap like that often gets filled.

I am glad to see that 4.82-4.85 support held yesterday, though.

Sinovac Receives Government Funding for Pandemic Flu Vaccine Research and Development
Friday December 9, 8:13 am ET

BEIJING, Dec. 9 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Amex: SVA - News) announced it has received RMB7,000,000 (USD$867,000) from China's Ministry of Science and Technology for the preclinical trials R&D of its proprietary Pandemic flu vaccine (Panflu(TM)) for humans.

Since April 2004, Sinovac has received over USD$1,000,000 from different departments of Chinese government for its pandemic flu vaccine R&D. This government funding to Sinovac, more than any other vaccine project for its study in preclinical stage to date, is expected to continue.

This work has a high priority, because of a possible flu pandemic. Most health officials estimate a flu pandemic would last a year or more, and millions of lives would be at risk. One of the most effective countermeasures against pandemic flu is to manufacture mass quantities of vaccines as quickly as possible.

The Chinese government holds great expectations for Sinovac's successful development of a safe and efficacious pandemic flu vaccine for humans. Sinovac's goal is to contribute to the Chinese and international public health emergency.

Sinovac CEO and Director, Mr. Weidong Yin commented, "We are moving quickly in the face of a possible pandemic, but not cutting corners on safety. Everyone here at Sinovac takes very seriously, their commitment towards global health, while providing returns to our investors. We also work together to boost global capacity for pandemic flu vaccine."

Sinovac's vaccine includes an adjuvant (aluminum) to boost the immune response. By increasing the immune response, smaller doses of vaccine are necessary; making it possible to produce more doses quickly.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 09, 2005, 09:10:05 AM

Technically, it will look better, now that the opening gap is filled/mostly filled, if SVA can mount a rally from here into that 5.525-6.145 resistance area.   

The opening gap filled completely at 10:54AM.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=15&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Broke below 4.82-4.85 support at 10:08AM.

Hi, Melf Elf!
I'm a newbie in the market.
I'm holding this one right now and I'm not sure what I should do at this point (I lost some).
What is you opinion about this stock and what do you think the next support is going to be?

Quote from: minkielover on December 13, 2005, 10:28:52 AM
Hi, Melf Elf!
I'm a newbie in the market.
I'm holding this one right now and I'm not sure what I should do at this point (I lost some).
What is you opinion about this stock and what do you think the next support is going to be?

Hi, minkielover,

I'm lousy at predicting, which is why I try to follow trends.  I sold SVA on December 5 after it broke three levels of support: (1) an up trendline; (2) the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud); and, (3) the 50DMA. 

Today's action is another break of important support (4.82-4.85), so if I had owned it here, I would have had to sell that break, right or wrong, to limit my risk.  I'm not advising, though.

SVA tanked from 4.82-4.85 support to 4.60 in just four minutes this morning, so the market clearly recognized that break of support. 

SVA currently is BID 4.77...ASK 4.80, trying to re-test former support at 4.82-4.85.  That level "should be" resistance now.  If SVA can stage a strong upside reversal during the remainder of today, then this morning's tank could be a fakeout to the downside.  A close below 4.82-4.85 isn't going to look good, though.   

I'd just suggest that you have a plan for how much risk you are willing to take.  It's tough to take losses, but you don't want them to turn into disasters.

Good luck with your decision!

Analysis on SVA By using "Fibonacci retracement tools" and "Support and Resistance"...

Look at doc word. We will try to find a good buy entry at about 3.80-3.90...

why not using the main SVA board?  8) 8)

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2469.405

Thank you so much for your reply, Melf Elf!
I'm going to watch today's reaction and decide what I'm going to do.
I'm glad at least I'm making some on NVAX to minimize the loss in SVA  ;D
Thanks again!

Hmmmm...I'm not quite sure what is going on with SVA today, but as I've decided to hold it for a while, I put in a bid at 4.63...and got it, adding to my position.  8)

I don't think Bird-Flu will fade away anytime soon. Unfortunately. And as long as the Chinese government is backing up SVA, I think it'll be all-right.

This is turning into a long term investment for me. ;D

This stock has hit bottom and is now turning around. 

Daily chart: http://trimurl.com/3KE

hourly chart: http://trimurl.com/3KF

get in now, heading back up

this is a china bird flu stock; they got money from the Chinese government for vacine...

going up!

Ibotez

Why not using the main SVA board?? Thanks

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2469.405

jorgegr

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8478

Tests dash hopes of rapid production of bird flu vaccine

The results of first large-scale trials of a low-dose vaccine against H5N1 bird flu have been announced – and they are unexpectedly disappointing. Scientists had hoped that very low doses of vaccine virus would make humans immune if injected along with an immune-stimulating chemical called an adjuvant.

But on Thursday, French vaccine company Sanofi pasteur announced that in tests on 300 people in France, they did not. "The prospects for adequate global supplies of an effective pandemic vaccine of any kind are dimmer now than they were last week," David Fedson, founder of the vaccine industry's pandemic task force, told New Scientist.

The first tests of H5N1 vaccine in the US in August 2005 found that the virus on its own does not stimulate much immunity in people. To elicit enough to ward off disease, a vaccine required 90 micrograms of the virus's main surface protein - six times more than is needed in ordinary flu vaccine.

The less virus is required per dose of vaccine, the more doses vaccine factories can produce in the limited time that will be available to immunise people at the start of a pandemic. Research with other types of bird flu have found such low-dose vaccines are possible, if the virus is combined with an adjuvant.
Antibody response

So Sanofi tested various doses of a vaccine virus based on the H5N1 that killed people in Vietnam in 2004, plus the most widely used adjuvant, alum. But no dose under 30 micrograms elicited enough antibodies to meet official standards for flu vaccines.

This means, says Fedson, that "if all the world's influenza vaccine companies were to produce this vaccine for six months, there would be enough to vaccinate only 225 million people".

"Thirty micrograms is obviously too high," says Agnes Hoffenbach, Sanofi's head of pandemic vaccine research. "In our next studies we will try and get lower doses to work."

One problem may be the adjuvant. The earlier studies of other types of bird flu used one called MF59, patented by the US firm Chiron. Supplies are limited and it is not yet approved for human use in the US and some other countries.
Split virus

Another problem could be that Sanofi's vaccine contained a split virus, rather than whole, killed virus. Split viruses are used for standard flu vaccines, as they elicit fewer side effects, but whole viruses are suspected to be more immunogenic.

China's Sinovac company is now testing a whole-virus H5N1 vaccine with alum. Takato Odagiri, head of the flu virus lab at Japan's National Institute of Infectious Diseases, reported at an international meeting in Malta in September that in his tests, whole-virus H5N1 vaccines seemed more immunogenic than split virus. He is now focusing his research solely on whole-virus vaccines.

But Hoffenbach told New Scientist: "I don't think we will look at whole virus vaccines." They would require new manufacturing processes that would have to be tested and approved. "We used our existing process because it is the fastest way to move to large-scale production." Tests of Sanofi H5N1 vaccine planned in the US for 2006 will also use split virus.

Fedson says more avenues should be tried. "The prospects for developing a pandemic vaccine that can be produced in the quantities the world will demand are now enormously more difficult," he says. "We have much more work to do."

China is heating up again 8-12% gdp projected till 2035 now thats a booming economy

nice presentation:

http://www.who.int/vaccine_research/diseases/influenza/Zhang.pdf

>:D

Thank you for the links, la-onda.

I still hold my SVA, bought at 5.015...so I'm about 10% down now.
I do not want to let go of them.

Found these rather disturbing news:

Link to whole article here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=arc6yngrteHE&refer=asia

World Is Losing Battle to Combat Bird Flu, UN Says (Update1)
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The world is ``losing the battle'' against avian flu in poultry, increasing the risk the gradually mutating virus will become more infectious to people and trigger an influenza pandemic, a United Nations official said.

Outbreaks among birds in Ukraine, Romania and possibly Africa show the deadly H5N1 avian flu strain is spreading, David Nabarro, the UN's avian flu coordinator, told Indonesian government officials and reporters today in Jakarta. Earlier, a health ministry official said an eight-year-old boy, who died four days ago, may be Indonesia's 11th bird-flu fatality.

``We are losing the battle against this particular'' avian influenza outbreak in birds, Nabarro said. ``We must focus on stamping it out.''

Human infections from H5N1 have more than doubled this year, prompting health authorities to warn that more needs to be done to control outbreaks in poultry, which increase the risk of the virus mutating and causing a pandemic that may kill millions.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 09, 2005, 06:52:19 AM
I was looking at SVA from the standpoint of a possible Bullish Gartley. If 4.82-4.85 support doesn't hold here, it would be interesting if we decline to your Point #5 and reach 4.34 and hold there, which would be a symmetry of both price and time. 

It took an extra week, but the Gartley target of 4.34 MADE yesterday.  The low was 4.30.

Right La-onda 8)

Analysis on SVA By using "Fibonacci retracement tools" and "Support and Resistance"...

Look at doc word. We will try to find a good buy entry at about 3.80-3.90...

News.......

AP
Sinovac Starts Bird Flu Vaccine Trial
Wednesday December 21, 4:00 pm ET 
Sinovac Biotech Starts Human Study of Potential Bird Flu Vaccine; Shares Climb 8.3 Percent

NEW YORK (AP) -- China's Sinovac Biotech Ltd. said Wednesday that it started a human study of its vaccine for the bird flu strain that scientists say has pandemic potential.
The drug maker's shares rose 34 cents, or 8.3 percent, to $4.45 in afternoon trading on the American Stock Exchange.

Sinovac said it expects this first study to take nine months, though preliminary results will be available in March. The trial includes 120 healthy volunteers between the ages of 18 and 60. The company said it has already given the vaccine to six volunteers at a hospital in Beijing.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has devastated poultry populations across Asia and killed more than 70 people since it first appeared more than two years ago. Still, the virus is not easily transmitted between humans and most human cases have been tied to contact with infected birds.

Chinese regulators have condensed the usual approval process for the vaccine, requiring two studies instead of three, to speed its review.

Currently, the most effective treatment for the virus is a drug called Tamiflu that is made by Roche Holding Ltd.

Still long at 4.95

SVA: Short Interest UP 41.7% to 1.2M in Dec 2005

Wednesday, December 21, 2005 16:17 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX: SVA) INCREASED 41.7% to 1,191,872 shares for the month ended mid-December, 2005.

SYMBOL       NOVEMBER        DECEMBER    CHANGE     %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
SVA              841,243       1,191,872        +350,629       +41.68%           2
Based on SVA's 20-day average daily share volume of 865,260, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Bouncing today from trend line

chart
http://tinyurl.com/7odcb

If you do not own then maybe wait for stochastics to get back above the 20 line

(http://xs61.xs.to/pics/05524/2912sva.jpg)

Is that a WolfWave forming??

Wolf will bite you during the next month.... >:D

SVA breaking out this morning

Yes bounced from trend line and stochastics moved above 20 again

http://tinyurl.com/7odcb

The eagerly awaited ....

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=4122688&Type=HTML

And for those of you who it might have escaped, "randstory" is running a nice group here ...

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Sinovac_Investors_Group/

Where you can get some real info on SVA without the abuse one have to endure when reading the yahoo message-boards.

(Nice work, rand!)  ;)

SVA filed a Form 6-K on 1/10/2006 with information through 6/30/05.  Relevant information includes:

Approved Products in Production

•  Healive(TM) - a vaccine to prevent hepatitis A.   Been sold for years

•  Bilive(TM) - a vaccine to prevent hepatitis A&B. SVA began sales of Bilive(TM) in July 2005.

Approved Product, Pre-Production

•  Anflu(TM) -- a vaccine to prevent influenza. Sinovac developed the Anflu(TM) vaccine in response to the persistent shortfall of influenza vaccines in China.  The SFDA granted the Company with a New Drug Certificate in March 2005 and a Production License in July 2005.  The 2 million-dose production capacity manufacturing facility was almost completed and the final preparations are being made before submitting an application for Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) certification. *** Sinovac intends to establish itself as the market leader for split-virion vaccine production.  With an aging population and a growing health-conscious middle class, the demand for safe and efficacious influenza vaccines is growing by as much as 16% (compounded annual growth rate) per year in China.  Ideally, if SFDA approves Anflu ™ for sales, Anflu(TM) marketing will begin in late summer of 2005, with sales expected to begin in the last quarter of 2005.  After it is approved for sales to the public, Sinovac will utilize the same sales and distribution channels as it does for Healive(TM) and Bilive(TM).

Products in Research and Development

•  Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Vaccine.  Results of SARS vaccine Phase I clinical trial determined the safety of the vaccine for humans.  *** 

•  Avian Influenza (Bird Flu, Pandemic Influenza) Vaccine.  Sinovac is co-developing a human vaccine targeting the avian flu virus in partnership with the China Center for Disease Control (CDC).  The CDC controls the Chinese vaccine market through its two main functions: commercial sales agency and governmental department in the pharmaceutical sector for China.  The Company began working on an avian flu virus with its New Human Influenza (H5N1) Vaccine and Development Project in 2004.  Sinovac is currently advancing its recombinant vaccine through the later stages of pre-clinical studies.

Production Capabilities

The Company has two separate production facilities.  The combined Healive(TM) ™ and Bilive(TM) facility ***  has a production capacity of 5 million vaccine doses per year (any combination of Healive(TM) ™ and Bilive(TM)).   The Company's new flu production facility has a production capacity of 2 million flu vaccine doses per year. This production line can also be used to produce a pandemic influenza (avian flu) vaccine for humans against the H5N1 virus.

Regulatory Changes to the Vaccine Distribution System in China

In March 2005, China's State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) announced a new regulation for vaccine distribution in China. The new regulation simplifies the distribution channel and enables vaccine manufacturers to directly sell their vaccine to any CDCs or hospitals. Previously vaccine manufacturers could only sell vaccines through CDC system. Since Sinovac's products are targeted at the private market, our executives believe this regulation will benefit the Company.

Operating Results

The Company generated revenue of $2,699,000 in sales of Healive(TM) for the six months ended June 30, 2005.  Gross profit margin ... 73.0%.  The Company's net loss was $3,466,000 for the six months ended June 30, 2005. 

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Sinovac's capital requirements have generally been funded by cash flow from sales revenue and issuances of common stock.  Unrestricted cash and cash equivalents totaled $1,342,000 at June 30, 2005, which is sufficient to fund the Company's business over the next 12 months, although the Company is seeking to raise additional capital to finance expansion.  Sinovac plans to raise capital from the sale of equity securities.

Forecast for the Second Half of 2005

Seasonal vaccine sales patterns in China affect the timing of Sinovac's sales.  The major users of vaccines come from middle school and college students, who need booster vaccination. Students break for summer holidays in July and August, hence large-scale vaccination programs do not take place during this period and sales are relatively low in July and August.  In September, new students are required to receive vaccinations during registration.  This vaccination requirement thus drives up sales in September. In anticipation of the January – February Chinese spring festival, the Center for Disease Control usually purchases a large order of vaccines in preparation in December. Historically, December is Sinovac's largest sales month, with December sales accounting for approximately 25% of the annual total.  Judging from the sales trend of the Company's first six months of 2005 operations, each quarter's sales has been higher than the same quarter in 2004.  The Company expects that the seasonality effect described above will result in the second half of this years sales to exceed last year's, in comparative quarters, with about $10 million in total revenues for 2005.

wow  >:D >:D >:D
sold too early

Sinovac Reports 18% Sales Growth and 73% Margins for First Six Months of 2005
Thursday January 12, 8:00 am ET


BEIJING, Jan. 12 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Sinovac) (Amex: SVA - News) announced its semiannual report revealed 18% Sales Growth and 73% Margins for First Six Months of 2005.
Company sales were entirely comprised of Healive(TM), generating $2,699,000 in sales, corresponding to revenue growth of 18%. The growth was attributable to an increase of the number of salespersons and marketing activities. However, new regulations for vaccine distribution in China caused sales growth to be slower than the corresponding period in 2004. Management believes sales growth is accelerating as the market adapts to the new regulations.

Gross profit margin increased to 73.0% from 66.7% in the six months ended June 30, 2004. The increase in gross profit margin was due to economies of scale, which enables increased Healive(TM) production while decreasing the average cost per unit.

Sinovac CEO, Mr. Weidong Yin said, "Our performance in the first half of 2005 proves our ability to grow in spite of major changes in how we market and distribute our products. I am confident we have the right business strategy and balance between product pipeline, marketing and sales; we are now positioned for accelerated growth in 2006."

Selling, General and Administrative Expenses ("SG&A expenses") increased 18% to $2,201,000 due to increased marketing expenses for exploration of new markets and sales persons' bonuses for 2004. Marketing expenses included in the SG&A increased 104% to $1,071,000. Sinovac expects additional increases in SG&A to support continuing market penetration and brand awareness.

Research and Development Expenses reflect amounts spent on the split flu, pandemic influenza vaccine (avian flu vaccine for humans), and Japanese encephalitis vaccines. Total research and development expenses aggregated $216,000. The expenses associated with SARS vaccine development were funded by a government grant.

Stock-Based Compensation

The Company took aggressive steps to reduce the number of stocks options granted; canceling, with the consent of the option holders, 1,977,000 stock options that had been granted in April 2004. Under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, the expense associated with the granting of stock options is normally recognized over the vesting period. On cancellation of stock options, the full remaining amount of the expense is recognized immediately. As a result, cancellation of the April 2004 stock options resulted in an abnormally large stock-based compensation charge in the current period. The Company incurred stock-based compensation of $2,897,000. About $1.4 million was attributable to the cancellation of the April 2004 stock options.

The Company's net loss was $3,466,000. While sales and gross profit margin increased, the resulting increase in gross profit was more than offset by increased SG&A expenses and stock-based compensation. However, stock based compensation does not affect the Company's cash flow. On a pro forma basis, the net loss was $568,000 before stock based compensation charge and $2,069,000 before the stock based compensation relating to the cancellation of stock options.

Sinovac's capital requirements have been funded by cash flow from sales revenue and issuances of common stock. The Company's working capital was $1,589,000 at June 30, 2005. Unrestricted cash and cash equivalents is sufficient to fund the Company's business over the next 12 months. Additionally, the Company is seeking to raise additional capital to finance expansion.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting

During the reporting period, management identified shortcomings in Sinovac's disclosure controls relating to the accounting treatment of purchased intellectual property. Since then, the Company has revised controls relating to the cost of whether such assets should be capitalized or charged to operations as in-process research and development. In conjunction with this change, Sinovac revised its controls relating to when amortization should commence on the purchase of vaccine rights, and revised controls relating to the presentation of reverse merger transactions.

Apart from these, there were no changes in internal control for financial reporting during the fiscal period ended June 30, 2005 that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control for financial reporting. Sinovac's executive management now concludes that Company disclosure controls and procedures are effective, and will endeavor to disclose all future financial filings in a timely manner.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060112/lnth002.html?.v=22

SVA: Reports 18% Sales Growth & 73% Margins For 1H
Thursday , January 12, 2006 08:06 ET

Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Amex: SVA) revealed 18% sales growth and 73% margins for first six months of 2005. Company sales were entirely comprised of Healive, generating $2.7 million in sales, corresponding to revenue growth of 18%.

For SVA, my first target would be 5.88$, I can't roll out a first retracement to the strong support level made of the 50ema and the 4.82$ support line before rebonding to the 5.88$ target.
I can't wait seeing SVA escaping from its descending channel and 6.5$ would be its next and      last descending resistance line before heading freely Nord!

I am holding sva currently and was wondering if anyone had feedback.

I am anticipating 7.00 in the near future.

have you checked via search functionality the different analysis?
cheers
O.
;)

Hey ihi

Here is the chart 4 u, I hope the best 4 u
Best of luck

Bye
YUNUS

Here is something more abt SVA

http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=SVA#ttop

YUNUS

While surfing on net, I hv got this chart.....prediction for the next 30 days
I shows SVA may climb upto $8.88 within the next 30 days

Bye
YUNUS

that site is crap!

thanks for the charts yunus.  SVA has vaccine for Hepatitis and SARS.  They are the only company in china that is backed by their government.  Their is a huge potential that they will have the vaccine for the bird flu virus by the end of the year.  They are currently in phase one clinical trials.  Results are scheduled for March.  8.88 in the next 30 days would be great.

Keep those analysis coming!

We might want to take another look at SVA, now that this folder is ready to fall off the bottom of the board.

;D

Review:

1. Our final Bullish Target #3, 7.35, MADE the morning of November 22, 2005, two days before Thanksgiving, and this turkey topped out right there.  SVA printed 7.44 that morning, then tanked 11% that day, to close at 6.63.  Nasty Bearish Engulfing pattern reversal.

2. November 21, 2005, I believe, the day before the top at 7.44,  it was reported that short interest in SVA had increased somethng like 200%, if I remember correctly.   Based on that short interest, one would think that the stock would go much higher.

While I always suggest "take profits when targets get MADE," I wouldn't have suggested shorting SVA when it was printing the final bullish target at 7.35 and the high of 7.44, but shorting that November 22 reversal turned out to be a great play, and  it turns out that, based just on the short information and when it was released, the shorts were right!.

This is a good example of why I say, "Don't infer too much from short interest data."  For one thing, it's reported later than when the data were collected.  I think something like two weeks later. 

It's a common mistake to think that a stock is going to go up because of high short interest, and another mistake to justify staying in a stock that starts to act bearish because short interest is high. 

Another common mistake is to focus on "good news" when the chart is acting bearish.  No, bird flu hasn't gone away, and there has been a lot of news that has caused these stocks to run up in pre-market trading, but when the chart is acting bearish like this one has been, the rally fizzles.

In other words, things like short interest and news items can be "thumb suckers" that make us feel better when we're long a stock position that is going down.

As we discussed last autumn, let's not make the mistake of thinking that the fact that "bird flu isn't going away" necessarily will translate into much higher prices for the bird flu stocks.  The market is a discounting mechanism, and "good news" tends  already to be factored in.  SVA currently is down about 50% off its October high.

Just some T2T discussion, because it's difficult to assess these factors when making decisions about stocks.

The chart can help us with that, so let's look at it.

SVA now is testing the December low of 3.91, so we want to watch it here.  The 200DMA is at 3.797, just below that. 

If SVA can find support near here, and finish off the right leg of this possible "W"-bottom fractal (repeating pattern), it could have some nice upside.

Off that little "W"-bottom in November, all three of our bullish targets MADE.  This "W"-bottom pattern is much larger.

SVA currently is BID 3.98...ASK 3.99

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 31, 2006, 11:45:22 AM
SVA now is testing the December low of 3.91, so we want to watch it here.  The 200DMA is at 3.797, just below that. 

If SVA can find support near here, and finish off the right leg of this possible "W"-bottom fractal (repeating pattern), it could have some nice upside.

SVA currently is BID 3.98...ASK 3.99

SVA has put in nice candlesticks the past two days.

Tuesday was a Bullish Hammer.  Upside follow-thru was needed for confirmation.

Yesterday was an upside reversal - a Doji Star Hammer that closed above the prior day's high.  If SVA had opened lower than the prior day's low, then closed where it did at 4.21, above the prior day's high of 4.15, it would be called a "Key Reversal," which is a pretty reliable signal.

Yesterday's Bullish Doji Star Hammer should have the same bullish effect.  SVA opened at 4.20, above the prior day's high of 4.15, went down and printed a new low (3.95) for the right leg of our "W"-Bottom, then recovered and closed at 4.21, back above the prior day's high of 4.15.

Technically, the 4.15 high on Tuesday is called a "buy pivot."  A print of 4.16, one penny above that "pivot point," is a BUY.

In addition to what is so nice about these two candlesticks, is the fact that they have formed at the bottom of the right leg of this possible "W"-bottom pattern (drawn at the bottom of the chart).  The low of the left leg, 3.91, has held, and we've got the Buy Pivot Signal on an upside reversal Bullish Doji Star Hammer candlestick.

BUY signal given at 4.16.  Stop: Below 3.91.  Risk: 6%

I'm thinking price may have bottomed here.


Technically, price seems to have found support in this 4.00 range
area.  Last week's closing price of 3.96 was the only weekly close
below 4.00 since early Sept. '05.  This week we closed at 4.15.

Looking at the daily chart we bounced off the 200 day MA, and closed
above the 13 day EMA.

Daily 1 year chart:
http://tinyurl.com/bvv2k

Weekly history chart:
http://tinyurl.com/cvpah

Watching the intraday trading, it seems most of the frustrated
sellers have finally bailed and are out.  It seems this way
(especially evident the past 7 days) because the overall daily volume
has been low, and when the price has fallen intraday, it falls on low
volume to the bid.  When price has risen intraday, it rises on bigger
block buying at the ask.  The upside volume has been greater.     

Hourly 30 day chart:
http://tinyurl.com/9oxux

15 minute 7 day chart:
http://tinyurl.com/9kcz4

clearcoated

Long time since I have been looking at Sinovac, Which is actually a bit strange as it is one of the stock in my portfolio I am most excited about.

Now before I get a lot of smite points let me just clarify that I hope that Bird flu will die a silent death. Even without bird flu SVA will do great it will just take a little longer time!

From a fundamental point of view this is a great stock. Sinovac will be (as fare as I am aware) the first company that will have a vaccine against Bird flu. It might not be FDA approved but that really doesn't matter.

If Bird flu mutates so it can transfer from human to human we are looking at one of the worst diseases in modern time. Any vaccine that works will be approved. (Imagine the Chinese being healthy and Americans dying like flies!)

We are talking about a disease that potentially can kill 142 million people, reduce the GDP worldwide with 12.5% and cost 4.4 trillion USD. These are not figures from alarmists but from recognized scientists (even though the figures can differ with a few % or a few billions).


A couple of month ago WHO scientist said that it is not a matter of if but when we will see human to human infections. These day everybody are more careful (to me it seems like there are a lot of political pressure to reduce the fear) now you hear formulation like:

QuoteThe report's authors note that there are "enormous uncertainties" as to whether the disease will mutate into a more contagious version spread via human-to-human contact.

I do honestly unfortunately believe the flu will mutate (as it has happend repeatedly through history). It will most likely not kill 10th of millions of people (because of companies like SVA) but it will creat a scare that will make SARS look like the common cold.

I have a very simple view on SVA. I have invested less than 5% of my capital in SVA. If the above scenario becomes true the rest of my stocks will skydive but my investment in SVA will probably more than compensate me. That is a very cheap insurance. Especially as I believe that SVA is a good investment if (which I pray for) Bird flu will go away without anybody noticing.

Mike