Another one to put on the watch list.
the triangle target is near $1.10, I had been looking this one also...
nice pick... I'm also looking forward for the next sessions.
Rocking today downtrend break, could head toward $1.2
Just checking it out also.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050708/transmeta_outlook.html?.v=2
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/stocksinmotion/10231513.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/050708/1130795.html?.v=1
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh76381_2005-07-08_12-47-58_n08380014_newsml
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsmb/050708/0a8957839c1744afa7e314ac5d4313c9.html?.v=1
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050708/85117.html?.v=1
If Monday's premarket is active and open > Friday's close, consider buy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TMTA&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Will have to dig for more on this Position.
Hi All,
I think this stock is worth a look. Let me know your views.
Thanks
Partha
I agree. I bought a small lot at 82 cents yesterday before making a thorough DD. Hope to have more time later this week so that I will feel more comfortable to increase my position (or sell)
I think it has broken its long term bearish line. Hope it goes up quickly
up we go!
Friday July 8, 3:59 pm ET
Transmeta Now Forecasts Positive Cash Flow for Second Quarter; Auditor to Resign
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) -- Transmeta Corp. shares jumped after the developer of computing, microprocessor and semiconductor technology, said Friday that it now expects to see positive cash flow in the second quarter. The announcement comes just a few months after auditors doubted whether the company could continue as a going concern
Transmeta shares rose 21 cents, or 35 percent, to 81 cents in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq, at nearly six times the average trading volume. Shares, which are down 50 percent for the calendar year, have fallen progressively from an October high of $2.19.
In May, the company said it was ahead of a goal to reduce its negative cash flow to less than $5 million per quarter by the end of the second quarter. A month earlier, Transmeta had received a going concern opinion from its auditors related to the company's 2004 financial statements.
Transmeta will report second-quarter results in early August.
"We have surpassed our first goal of substantially reducing our cash burn, and in fact I am now able to comfortably say that we will report positive operating cash flow for the 2005 second quarter," said Mark R. Kent, Transmeta chief financial officer, in a statement. "We are encouraged by the positive financial and operational progress across our business."
Later, in an interview, Kent said that the turnaround was driven by key partnerships with Microsoft Corp. and Sony Corp., selling low-power technology to companies like Sony and Fujitsu, and licensing of the company's LongRun2 technology. LongRun2 technology reduces total chip power to cut down on energy leakage which increases as chip gets smaller.
Restructuring efforts at the company have also paid off, since March when Transmeta shaved 67 jobs, mostly in sales and marketing, to reduce head count to 208 employees.
Chief Executive Arthur L. Swift said in an interview that engineers were spared from the cut to retain creative talent.
"The most important thing is that our new business model is working," Swift said. "Power leakage is a key problem for the industry."
Transmeta also said Ernst & Young will resign as the company's accounting firm after completing services for the quarter ended Sept. 30. The company plans to name a new accountant in the third quarter.
The company received a warning from the Nasdaq National Market in May for failure to maintain a minimum stock price of $1 per share for 10 consecutive business days. Transmeta needs to comply with the minimum price requirement by Nov. 15 or will face delisting.
Press Release Source: Transmeta Corporation
Transmeta to Present on August 10 at Moors & Cabot Semiconductor Conference
Tuesday July 26, 10:30 am ET
SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 26, 2005--Transmeta Corporation (Nasdaq:TMTA - News), the leader in efficient computing technologies, today announced that Arthur L. Swift, president and CEO, and Mark R. Kent, CFO, will be presenting at the Moors & Cabot Semiconductor Conference on Wednesday, August 10, 2005, at 9:40 a.m. (Pacific time) in San Francisco.
The presentation will be broadcast live over the Internet and can be accessed via the Company's web site, located at www.transmeta.com. Please allow extra time prior to the presentation to visit the site and download the streaming media software required to listen to the Internet broadcast.
About Transmeta Corporation
Transmeta Corporation develops and licenses innovative computing, microprocessor and semiconductor technologies and related intellectual property. Founded in 1995, Transmeta first became known for designing, developing and selling its highly efficient x86-compatible software-based microprocessors, which deliver a balance of low power consumption, high performance, low cost and small size suited for diverse computing platforms. We also develop advanced power management technologies for controlling leakage and increasing power efficiency in semiconductor and computing devices. To learn more about Transmeta, visit www.transmeta.com.
Safe Harbor Statement
This release contains forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements speak only as of the date of this release, and we will not necessarily provide updates of our projections or other forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are subject to many risks and uncertainties, and may differ materially or adversely from our actual results or future events. Important risk factors that could have material or adverse effects on our results include general economic and political conditions, specific conditions and volatility in the markets that we address, difficulties or delays in implementing our restructuring plan, the potential loss of key technical and business personnel resulting from our restructuring plan, practical challenges in modifying our business model, our ability to satisfy the continued listing requirements of the NASDAQ Stock Market, the adoption and market acceptance of our products and technologies by current and potential customers and licensees, our inability to predict or ensure that third parties will license our technologies or use our technologies to generate royalties, the rescheduling or cancellation of significant customer orders, difficulties in developing or manufacturing our products in a timely and cost effective manner, our dependence on third parties for sourcing materials and providing manufacturing services, intense competition and competitive pressures, the ability to enter strategic collaborations or raise financing on satisfactory terms, patents and other intellectual property rights, and other risk factors. We urge investors to review our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent reports on Forms 10-K, 10-K/A, 10-Q and 8-K, which describe these and other important risk factors that could have an adverse effect on our results. We undertake no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statement for any reason.
Transmeta is a trademark of Transmeta Corporation. All other product or service names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Transmeta Corporation
Mark Kent, 408-919-3000
or
Financial Dynamics
Michael Polyviou, 212-850-5748 (Investors)
Lisa Cradit, 212-850-5642 (Media)
Didn't want to start new thread....
Technical Analysis:
Nice uptick from last week in this share...
Av moving 7% per week and above 1 mil share traded every day....
My opinion:
Today they have earnings call, if the future guidance is good it may gap up also...
TMTA will be published everywhere in technology related websites as they challlenged bigwigs in the mobile market with their creative technology during IPO. It may give them positive review. Licencing is new model.
After hrs 1.27.. Its gap up
i'm in a little late at 1.28. looking for possible filling of Jan gap ~1.50. room to average down if i need to.
anyone get in, nice analysis and logic. should have seen it before earnings.
i am in with 0.85 though with a small amount....
argh! didn't have anything to go on, so i sold near the close of the gap at 1.46, now 1.60s!
very nice move ;D
David,
I'll appreciate if you could provide a comment on TMTA? Its stuck today between 1.4- 1.45 with 17 million shares traded in 1 hr.
Dhiraj
TMTA made its trend line break in July then went to test it and after consolidation made a break out at 0.95. The recent gap up should not really be filed at $1.07 as it was a break away gap but often ones like this half fill and that would be in the range of the 38% retrace at $1.18. Maybe there is enough momentum left to take it higher here but 3 days above the top Bollinger band does not make for a good risk reward at the moment. The 9-day is moving up so it may hit the 38% line in a couple of days. Momentum can of course be played with any stock but risk/reward is important to consider and buying at support or a break of resistance on strong volume is the least risky as you can set stops very close then wait for another set up.
This week is typically the worst of the month and August is typically the worst month of the year. And..... the NASDAQ has been trending down and this could be a week of a bigger correction. With this possible and TMTA RSI staying above 70 indicates higher risk at the moment.
(http://xs41.xs.to/pics/05320/1208tmta.jpg)
Metro, it has been quite a while since you made this analysis on TMTA. Th last week the stock has been jumping up and down between $1,70-1,75. Everybody is still on (strong) buy. I'm interested in your thoughts two weeks later.
Looking forward to hear.
Here is an annotated chart. I am a bit effected now also by time of year and market conditions. Generally the markets are still very strong as the sell offs just can't seem to get much action. But a trading bottom in the markets may not arrive for another couple of weeks and we can tell more after vacations end and the bigger players are back.
TMTA has made such a nice run of 500% in a very short time so I am waiting to re enter until I see a better risk reward. On the chart I made a comment about a possible entry but a much better one would be at a base at the center Bollinger band and 62% retrace that could happen if we can get a broader market sell off which should really come to help set up for a bigger rally.
Risk/reward are are based on upside to downside possibilities. TMTA reported 4 cents in earnings so if they could just keep that up for year at a PE of 20 then price would be $3.20 but there are some doubts of course and a big gain to protect and market weak seasonality so for a shorter time frame re entry I am waiting unless I see a strong vol move as mentioned on the chart.
http://tinyurl.com/7bese
Quote from: metro on August 26, 2005, 04:59:48 AM
Here is an annotated chart. I am a bit effected now also by time of year and market conditions. Generally the markets are still very strong as the sell offs just can't seem to get much action. But a trading bottom in the markets may not arrive for another couple of weeks and we can tell more after vacations end and the bigger players are back.
TMTA has made such a nice run of 500% in a very short time so I am waiting to re enter until I see a better risk reward. On the chart I made a comment about a possible entry but a much better one would be at a base at the center Bollinger band and 62% retrace that could happen if we can get a broader market sell off which should really come to help set up for a bigger rally.
Risk/reward are are based on upside to downside possibilities. TMTA reported 4 cents in earnings so if they could just keep that up for year at a PE of 20 then price would be $3.20 but there are some doubts of course and a big gain to protect and market weak seasonality so for a shorter time frame re entry I am waiting unless I see a strong vol move as mentioned on the chart.
http://tinyurl.com/7bese
Metro,
Thanks for the in dept response. It kind of does confirm my thoughts. Only doubt I have is the volumes. I think they have been quite strong basically every day in the past two weeks. What volumes change your thoughts?
This is more of a speculative play. As you can read on this thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3353.0) I believe the Nasdaq Composite will march to new highs before the year ends.
TMTA seems to be an attractive speculative play to ride the bull. I'll buy it at today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Over the following updates I will write more about these companies I'm buying today.
I had this TMTA on the last spike, its a very speculative stock, especially for the so called 4qt Tech rally.
I have been in TMTA since August 17th and added August 29th ..... :-[
Wanted to add at $ 1,20 but it would have gotten to big. Anyway it's clear I did not really have plans back then :-[. Did believe in the stock and still do. Looking back I would have sold earlier and bought back at the low levels. That's what I've learned here ;).
And now. Go TMTA go!!!!
Amarens
In with you on the small pullback @ 1.52 - let's see this thing move :o
hmm... moved to the wrong side methinks >:(
Watching that move at the end of the day was painful - I'm kinda concerned that we just hit the top of another spike - anyone with more experience with TMTA or know a bit more about the fundamentals able to give some advice? David, what's your call, as it's never nice to start a trade with a loss.
TMTA breakout has been supported by the 50sma $1.41 and just below further support from the 9ema $1.34. Technically would like to see these zones hold as support. My stop trails the 9ema some and I have a target area of $1.90 to $2 for profits (but that is always a bit flexible, my stop loss however is not).
Good luck
Thanks for your analysis and comments on TMTA :)
Well, it's a volatile stock, just as we've seen yesterday. ScottishTrader is right, it isn't pleasent to start a trade with a loss: «A good trade is profitable right from the start».
But, when trading these volatile issues, we have to be a bit flexible when we think on the concept of «loss». The stock yesterday had a trading range of 13.57% (the difference between the low and the high of the day was 13.57%).
So, if we consider «loss» just 4 or 5%, unless we're extremely lucky or skillfull on our entry point, almost for sure one is wiped out due to volatility.
Actually, I've just noticed the stock hit a resistance level yesterday at $1.58, and that possibly explains the pullback. But look at the Tema turning north.
Earnings for the 3rd quarter will be out next Tuesday after the close. Second quarter earnings did that enormous spike on the chart, and they looked like this:
Transmeta Reports Record Quarterly Revenue and Positive Earnings; Achieves Positive Cash Flow from Operations of $4.8 Million; Raises Cash Guidance to $47 Million at 2005 Fiscal Year End (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BDCEF7509%2D748A%2D4012%2DA3F8%2D1A045D678D59%7D)
An interesting read, I would like to highlight this:
«The Company's net income for the second quarter of 2005 improved significantly to $6.8 million, or $0.04 per share, compared with a net loss of $21.1 million, or a loss of $0.11 per share, in the first quarter of 2005, and a net loss of $26.8 million, or a loss of $0.15 per share, in the second quarter of 2004.»
I see $0.04 per share in one quarter. If the company keeps up with this, that would mean $0.16 in one year. The stock price is $1.42, so if the company stays basically the same, the forward P/E Ratio is just 8.88. If the company grows, the P/E would be incredibly low !
After all, TMTA doesn't seem to be such a speculative play ... I see value, lots of value in TMTA !
I'll continue holding TMTA for the foreseeable future.
The company said in the middle of August that the profit is unattendable.
They said that "don't expect the same profit this guarter".
That is why the stock dropped since then.
For me, I'd better wait for their earning release before taking position.
After Google the best stock in 2005.. big earnings Tuesday 8/11 after close market
and... more nothing ;)
Any reason, why do you think they will have good earning?
Thanks,
Tell me my feeling..
and I have a dream... ;D
JPM, would U give your reasons for liking TMTA. (fundamental analysis or technicals).
It looks interesting. What is a software based microprocessor? I'll try to do some research too.
Check out the current 3SOF portfolio for more info. It's one of the current picks.
Have a GRRRRREAT DAY !!!!
Hello,
I taste always of the company that makes look like a great future that is the case of the Transmeta. And ererything started with the results of 2Q in August where of big prejudices had passed to the comparative fabulosos profits the 2004.
Whatch that and good lucky...
My bet (hope) is that TMTA will report revenue $25-28M on Tuesday:
--License (Sony)-$10M..same as Q2
--Service $10-12M...up from Q2 consequent to addition of "milestone" fees from Sony and/or MSFT (management stated previously 2H revenue from this source would be increasing)
--Product $5-6M...down from last Q (management also predicted reduction in this line for remainder of 2005)
With consolidated gross margin of ~70%, gross profit should be ~$17.5-19.6M.
I don't expect expenses to change much ($10M), so net income 8-10M or 5-6 cents per share likely.
The biggest news for the week would be confirmation that Culturecom deal ($15M) will close in 2005, virtually insuring Q4 revenue and net income would exceed Q3--say 7-8 cents per share. Year-end guidance would then include:
--Cash position at year end $60-65M
--2005 ANNUAL PROFIT, FIRST EVER.......5-6 cents per share!!!!!!!!
What we need to follow is longer term guidance, something to sustain the momentum into 2006. How about:
--New licensee(s). I'd love Samsung, but I'm betting on another foundry partner like TSMC, Chartered, or UMC who are currently expanding 90nm production. Then there's Sony's 2 Cell partners, Toshiba and IBM...would be nice for one or both of them to join the TMTA license family.
--News about MSFT or SONY. If you think the street got excited about a Crusoe processor in a Ford truck, just wait to you see the reaction to an Efficeon processor in a MSFT device or an LR2-enabled Cell derivative (ANYTHING associated with PS3).
--Earlier than expected royalties from Fujitsu
--AMD or Intel as partners...or TMTA to join AMD in its lawsuit.
While risks certainly remain, the upside potential here is higher than ever.
Good luck, my fellow longs.
jpm,
Yes, TMTA looks very promising.
Here's my take on TMTA. It appears that continued gain activity with 10 MA moving up, if matched with volume and MACD in continued positive territory, may repeat the gain activity of mid July-August.
Jeez... i might have to reconsider putting a lot of money into CYTO tomorrow... this thing looks unbelieveably good too. Again... if I could applaud you I would but alas I am but a lowly regular on this site. Thanks for your awesome TA again LiveLife!
Alright well I made my decision and I'm gonna invest in both. Dabble in hopefully the best of both worlds... what's the worst that can happen. LiveLife could I get your opinion on CYTO?
http://www.transmeta.com/corporate/career/postings.html
Current Postings:
› Circuit Design Engineer [2005.10.17]
› Compiler Research and Development [2005.10.14]
› Senior Software Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Device Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Product Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Senior Compiler Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Manager - Mask Layout Design [2005.10.07]
› Circuit Design Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Senior Software Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Manager - SRAM Design [2005.09.19]
› Senior Software Engineer - Device Drivers [2005.09.19]
› Software QA Engineer [2005.08.01]
› Senior SRAM Design Engineer
Sorry, that was supposed to be with the last post.
The only thing that has held down the share price has been the analysts. Shortly after upgrading, they downgraded for whatever reason, and I'm sure they had a bunch of "short" ones.
TMTA showed profits last quarter for the first quarter ever and they have many deals in the works....30 engineers working with Microsoft, culturecom, etc.
I, too, expect a blowout quarter.
This is a + earnings up the last four quarters.
From looking at the chart, IMHO, I see.
Falling Wedge (Reversal) Pattern.......And Breakout from the pattern.
• Transmeta Corporation Third Quarter 2005 Financial Results Call scheduled for Tue, Nov 8
Shareholder.com (Fri, Nov 4)
Conference Call Link: http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/3/62723.html
Support @ $1.44...1.33...1.18...1.07
Resistance @ $1.52...1.81...1.98...2.07
MACD is Bullish
Stochastic is bearish
Recent CandleStick Analysis
Neutral
Nov-01-2005 Bullish Engulfing.......As always we need futher conformation.
Oct-31-2005 Inverted Hammer
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
11.99%above 13-day EMA
13.22%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 98
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $289.31
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 11/08/2005
Last Analyst Rating: Underperform
The falling wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout.
The falling wedge can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.
As with rising wedges, the falling wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. When lower highs and lower lows form, as in a falling wedge, a security remains in a downtrend. The falling wedge is designed to spot a decrease in downside momentum and alert technicians to a potential trend reversal. Even though selling pressure may be diminishing, demand does not win out until resistance is broken. As with most patterns, it is important to wait for a breakout and combine other aspects of technical analysis to confirm signals.
It looks like we're all saying the same thing... but I'll go ahead and post my chart anyway. It's not gonna say much different from setra or Live but... here goes.
Stop-loss in at 1.18 and sell target at between $3.25 and 3.50.
Earnings plays are always risky, but I'm with you guys on this one, I just think it is shaping up for the run. I have an open position and I have put it as my entrant into the stock picking comp http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3487.msg30956#msg30956
Come Tuesday I guess we'll know whcih way this thing will play out.
Great posts and analysis on this thread.
Good Luck
I have doubt about the earnings Possibly good or bad.... but i will take a position anyway ;)
I applaud you guys, dwest718, LiveLife for your charts and TA comments.
You also AussieTrader, I seen you have picked it in the stock picking contest....nice pick.... Applaud :D Heck why not just Applaud everyone on this thread. ;D
Indeed, am in on TMTA as well, picking up some last week when David bought in. At the moment (and especially reading through the stock picking contest) there seem to be a huge amount of good speculative plays around. I like TMTAs movement so far, and think this one should be worth hanging on to for next week at least, but if AussiTrader's picked it for the contest, then why not hold it for the month??
GL all ;)
Quote from: shawFund on November 04, 2005, 08:55:53 AM
The company said in the middle of August that the profit is unattendable.
They said that "don't expect the same profit this guarter".
That is why the stock dropped since then.
For me, I'd better wait for their earning release before taking position.
Thanks a lot for that input shawFund :)
Can you please provide me a link for the complete information on that subject? Thank you !
Ok, if the company were to make those 4 cents in net profits every quarter going forward it would be too much of a steal here. I would be fine if it made just 1 or 2 cents this quarter.
With the current bullishness on the market, specially on technology stocks, I don't mind waiting for the earnings report on the long side of TMTA. Any news will probably be perceived by the market as good news, even if the company reports a small loss, I believe.
Therefore, I'll continue holding TMTA, I'm thinking much more on buying than selling at this point, I still have 20% cash in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Probably tomorrow I'll buy some more stocks.
I think the "unattendable" he is referring to is the Forbes article about Piper Jaffray's Downgade, saying that TMTA's current valuation is "untenable". Not exactly sure what that means, but I take it's meaning as "unjustifiable" or overvalued. At any rate, it looked tenable today, but I probably won't hoild through earnings.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/09/02/transmeta-semiconductors-0902markets04.html?partner=yahootix
A little bit more TA... just something I picked up on by accident. Basically another possible indicator of another run... check it out and tell me what you think! I was going to add a little bit of clarification but I kind of forgot what I wanted to say. I'll post it later though... if I can remember ;D.
Good evening,
Nice gains for TMTA today! $0.22 (14.57%)!!!
I sold SANM on gains this morning (I bought in at $4.25 Friday (10,000 shares) and sold at $4.52-$4.55) and bought TMTA (26,000 shares!).
Good trading!
Xlivelife, Are you putting in market orders? Cuz I'm having trouble with limit orders getting picked up. Any suggestions?
Do you see any similarities in this chart to TMTA's? Hoping for a breakout here, too!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=chtr,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb10!b50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
hudsonsgrill,
I buy in blocks of 5K, 10K, and this morning, 26K share block of TMTA. It's a lot of shares, so I "HAVE" to swing trade only "high volume" stocks. Yes, I do use market buy/sell, but you must be very careful (I'll explain this in detail on the new "3SOF Knowledge Center" swing trading thread).
As to CHTR, look at the "very messy" chart below and see the "cyclic patterns" of volume (blue ovals) matched to gain activity (blue arrows) that are also matched to rising RSI, MACD and 10 MA approaching 50 MA. Based on the past patterns, CHTR may gain to $1.50 if gain/volume is maintained (sell as you approach $1.50 ;)).
Watch the gain activity closely and get ready to sell!
Good trading!
Quote
From Livelife
("3SOF Knowledge Center" swing trading thread).
Quote
Livelife, can you give me the link of that, i can't find it... thanks 8)
Aussietrader is in first place of the StockPicking $1,000 Contest with TMTA, so this is already a great pick :D
Earnings are going to be out today after the closing bell. The question is hold or sell? What does the market think of the earnings? It thinks they're going to be good, and I'm a firm believer that the market always knows better.
There's money pushing this stock higher, not words. And usually money only moves for good reason. So my decision is to hold TMTA today, and analyze it again after the earnings release after the close.
Quote from: BigSully1 on November 07, 2005, 05:12:30 PM
I think the "unattendable" he is referring to is the Forbes article about Piper Jaffray's Downgade, saying that TMTA's current valuation is "untenable". Not exactly sure what that means, but I take it's meaning as "unjustifiable" or overvalued. At any rate, it looked tenable today, but I probably won't hoild through earnings.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/09/02/transmeta-semiconductors-0902markets04.html?partner=yahootix
Thanks for your comments on TMTA and the link for that Forbes article BigSully1 :)
The article was published on September 2nd when the stock closed at $1.68. Yesterday it closed at $1.73.
But, as I said «there's money pushing this stock higher, not words.» Money is pushing higher, words are pushing down. Usually money is saying the truth, not words.
So, again, I'll HOLD TMTA.
LiveLife 26.000 buy !!!!!!????
Good luck for you....but...I stow to make pesquicas and have a bad prefeeling for transmeta..Why?
always that a stock goes up 1/2 days before the exit of the apos results... the results goes down..
big exemple:Bidu.com,Amazon,Taser...and
always that a stock goes down 1/2 days before the exit of the apos results... the results goes up
big exemple:Sanmina;Sandisk;Aple;Google...
I waited that transmeta went up moderately but and in 2 days already 40%..e went up thus is a bad premessenger
Yes, TMTA is the winner for the first day of stock pick competition.
Here is the result (gain >4%):
open close gain
TMTA $1.54 $1.73 12.34%
SYNC $4.39 $4.86 10.71%
GNBT $1.23 $1.36 10.57%
WGAT $2.79 $3.06 9.68%
AOB $6.15 $6.69 8.78%
CKCM $22.14 $23.89 7.90%
HOM $5.09 $5.44 6.88%
SVA $5.24 $5.49 4.77%
BMD $6.07 $6.33 4.28%
VPHM $23.15 $24.10 4.10%
The market is predicting that TMTA will give a good report and may be it is correct.
I bet EXPE last week that it would give a good report and my bet was right.
I put almost $100,000 on it. The reason is PCLN gave good report and EXPE is in the same business as PCLN.
Market was right on VPHM also.
Hope that market will be right on TMTA.
For the first time, all stocks in the picks are green.
Terlisa, I am working on the "draft swing trading lessons" right now...I will post later this week. I am going to start with stock trading basics to my current swing trading methods. Essentially, I am going to start the thread as though it was for a "complete newbie" to stock trading. ;)
jpm, I am in "full on" swing trading mode. I will take profit on gains (like SANM yesterday $0.30 x 10,000 shares = $3,000 YES!!! Not too bad for one day "hold" ;)
With TMTA, I am up $0.08 x 26,000 = $2,080!
I will take profit on gains this morning, or sell if there is a sell off on market open.
All of David's 3SOF 12 stocks are in the green with some really on "fire" like AOB!!!
Good trading.
Both TMTA and SANM seem to be "flat" today.
I sold TMTA this morning (26,000 shares at $1.70 on limit sell) and bought PAX on an "extremely short speculative" trade at $0.97 - $1.02 (43,600 shares!). I thought about daytrading PAX before I left for work this morning, but after reading fousc's post about the new CEO, I will hold for now.
TMTA and PAX are David's 3SOF picks (PAX being his "fast" 3SOF).
I am still writing the draft for "Knowledge Center" swing trading lessons and I'll post later this week.
Good trading!
TMTA results in and they look good ;D. Afterhours seems to agree at the moment:
"DJ Transmeta Reports Rev Of $27.9 M And Positive Cash Flow From Ops For Q3 2005; Raises Cash Guidance To $53 M At 2005 Fiscal Yr End Guides To Rev Of $71 M To $72 M For Full Yr 2005"
"DJ Transmeta 3Q Net 5c/Shr Vs Loss 16c"
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051108/20051108006097.html?.v=1
GREAT QUARTER!!!... but guidance could cause a few problems.
At http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051108/20051108006097.html?.v=1:
Transmeta Reports Revenue of $27.9 Million and Positive Cash Flow from Operations for Q3 2005
Tuesday November 8, 4:10 pm ET
Raises Cash Guidance to $53 Million at 2005 Fiscal Year End Guides to Revenue of $71 Million to $72 Million for Full Year 2005
SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 8, 2005--Transmeta Corporation (Nasdaq:TMTA - News), the leader in efficient computing technologies, today announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2005.
Highlights for the Third Quarter 2005
Net revenue of $27.9 million
Net income of $10.1 million, or $0.05 per share
Positive cash flow from operations of $9.5 million
Cash balance of $56.9 million at September 30, 2005
Deferred income of $6.0 million
Engineering services projects with Sony and Microsoft continue to progress well
Business Update
"We are pleased with our results as they reflect the early success of our modified business model," commented Arthur L. Swift, president and CEO. "Our continuing goal is to drive Transmeta's technology into high volume market segments by leveraging licensing, customized processor development, and synergistic engineering services. As an early innovator in the fields of microprocessor design and power reduction for leading edge chips, as well as a pioneer in addressing the challenge of power leakage, we have a solid technology base on which to build a sustainable competitive advantage. This year, we will have successfully transformed our business, and as we look to 2006, we are well positioned to capitalize on our solid financial progress and key strategic customer relationships."
Net revenue for the third quarter of 2005 was $27.9 million, compared to $24.7 million in the second quarter of 2005, and $7.0 million in the third quarter of 2004. Net revenue in the third quarter comprised $9.6 million of license revenue, $10.3 million of service revenue and $7.9 million of product revenue. This compares with $10.0 million of license revenue, $7.6 million of service revenue, and $7.1 million of product revenue in the second quarter of 2005. The product revenue reflects end-of-life (EOL) product sales as well as customer product programs which have reached or are reaching the end of their respective product life. In addition, the Company reported deferred income of $6.0 million as of September 30, 2005, as compared to $15.5 million for the second quarter of 2005.
The Company reported gross margin of 99.5% for the license business, 41.6% for the service business and 72.7% for the product business. On a consolidated basis, the Company's gross margin was 70.5% for the 2005 third quarter, compared to 67.1% for the second quarter of 2005, and a negative 62.2% for the third quarter of 2004.
The Company's net income for the third quarter of 2005 was $10.1 million, or $0.05 per share compared with a net income of $6.8 million, or $0.04 per share in the second quarter of 2005, and a net loss of $28.6 million, or a loss of $0.16 per share in the third quarter of 2004.
The Company had positive cash flow from operations of $9.5 million in the third quarter of 2005, as compared to positive cash flow of $4.8 million in the second quarter of 2005 and negative cash flow of $21.2 million in the third quarter of 2004. The Company's cash, cash equivalents and short term investments at September 30, 2005 totaled $56.9 million.
"Our licensing and services businesses, with their varying times to revenue recognition, coupled with our present high degree of customer concentration, can result in a variable revenue profile from quarter to quarter," continued Swift. "Looking forward, our goal is to generate new sources of revenue in 2006, including new licensees for our LongRun2 technologies, our first royalties from our previous LongRun2 licensees, and new revenues from specialized versions of our 90 nanometer Efficeon products."
Beat all estimates, greatly outperformed last year's same quarter. Not the best guidance though so we could see a bit of a selloff... I'm still watchin this though and I'm stayin long.
AH up:
Transmeta Reports Revenue of $27.9 Million and Positive Cash Flow from Operations for Q3 2005; Raises Cash Guidance to $53 Million at 2005 Fiscal Year End Guides to Revenue of $71 Million to $72 Million for Full Year 2005
Tuesday , November 08, 2005 16:10 ET
SANTA CLARA, Calif., Nov 08, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Transmeta Corporation (Nasdaq:TMTA), the leader in efficient computing technologies, today announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2005.
Highlights for the Third Quarter 2005
-- Net revenue of $27.9 million
-- Net income of $10.1 million, or $0.05 per share
-- Positive cash flow from operations of $9.5 million
-- Cash balance of $56.9 million at September 30, 2005
-- Deferred income of $6.0 million
-- Engineering services projects with Sony and Microsoft continue to progress well
Business Update
"We are pleased with our results as they reflect the early success of our modified business model," commented Arthur L. Swift, president and CEO. "Our continuing goal is to drive Transmeta's technology into high volume market segments by leveraging licensing, customized processor development, and synergistic engineering services. As an early innovator in the fields of microprocessor design and power reduction for leading edge chips, as well as a pioneer in addressing the challenge of power leakage, we have a solid technology base on which to build a sustainable competitive advantage. This year, we will have successfully transformed our business, and as we look to 2006, we are well positioned to capitalize on our solid financial progress and key strategic customer relationships."
Net revenue for the third quarter of 2005 was $27.9 million, compared to $24.7 million in the second quarter of 2005, and $7.0 million in the third quarter of 2004. Net revenue in the third quarter comprised $9.6 million of license revenue, $10.3 million of service revenue and $7.9 million of product revenue. This compares with $10.0 million of license revenue, $7.6 million of service revenue, and $7.1 million of product revenue in the second quarter of 2005. The product revenue reflects end-of-life (EOL) product sales as well as customer product programs which have reached or are reaching the end of their respective product life. In addition, the Company reported deferred income of $6.0 million as of September 30, 2005, as compared to $15.5 million for the second quarter of 2005.
The Company reported gross margin of 99.5% for the license business, 41.6% for the service business and 72.7% for the product business. On a consolidated basis, the Company's gross margin was 70.5% for the 2005 third quarter, compared to 67.1% for the second quarter of 2005, and a negative 62.2% for the third quarter of 2004.
The Company's net income for the third quarter of 2005 was $10.1 million, or $0.05 per share compared with a net income of $6.8 million, or $0.04 per share in the second quarter of 2005, and a net loss of $28.6 million, or a loss of $0.16 per share in the third quarter of 2004.
The Company had positive cash flow from operations of $9.5 million in the third quarter of 2005, as compared to positive cash flow of $4.8 million in the second quarter of 2005 and negative cash flow of $21.2 million in the third quarter of 2004. The Company's cash, cash equivalents and short term investments at September 30, 2005 totaled $56.9 million.
"Our licensing and services businesses, with their varying times to revenue recognition, coupled with our present high degree of customer concentration, can result in a variable revenue profile from quarter to quarter," continued Swift. "Looking forward, our goal is to generate new sources of revenue in 2006, including new licensees for our LongRun2 technologies, our first royalties from our previous LongRun2 licensees, and new revenues from specialized versions of our 90 nanometer Efficeon products."
Guidance
For the 2005 fourth quarter and FYE 2005, we expect:
-- Positive operating cash flow of $6.0 to $6.5 million in the second half of 2005, increased from prior guidance of breakeven cash flow for the second half
-- Fourth quarter negative operating cash flow of $3.0 to $3.5 million
-- FYE 2005 year end cash of $53.0 million, increased from prior guidance of $47.0 million
-- Fourth quarter total revenue of $12.0 to $13.0 million
-- Fourth quarter net loss of $5.4 to $5.9 million, or a loss of $0.03 per share
"In the third quarter, we continued to build on the operational and financial success of the second quarter, and we expect to exceed our stated key objective of achieving break-even or better cash flow from operations for the second half of 2005," commented Mark R. Kent, chief financial officer. "For the full year, we are expecting revenues of at least $71 million, which includes product revenue of approximately $24 million. This product revenue includes EOL and legacy customer sales which we expect to substantially conclude this year."
"Looking forward, we expect to replace this transitioning product revenue with new revenue from licensing, services, and our specialized 90 nanometer Efficeon product business," continued Kent. "As we move into next year, we expect to continue growing our Sony services business. In addition, we expect to achieve key program milestones and the recognition of related revenue for a significant development services contract in the first half of 2006."
Now it's dropping like a rock in AH.... were people expecting a better report?
Any ideas?
I almost bought some TMTA today, but decided not to buy anything cuz of market conditions. I had 4 stocks I was watching, and by 10:00 they were all down anywhere from 3-7 percent. Anyway I'm glad I decided not to buy it. Look at the way it's trading after hours. It's set to go down over 10% tomorrow. It's interesting how a bad day on the market can take down even the strongest stocks.
Leaira
I just do not get this ??? ??? ??? Great results. Is this the guidance? Does anybody know what's up here?
Really frustrating! ???
Amarens
well.....well....welll....
I WARNING....
always that a stock goes up 1/2 days before the exit of the after results... the stock goes down..
big exemple:Bidu.com,Amazon,Taser.
LiveLife you sure do seem to have made an art of swing trading. Nice moves.
I'm anxiously awaiting your teaching thread. I need to especially learn when to sell.
Thanks for all your hard work. This newbie appreciates it.
Guys,
Here is my take. It is not technical but more from technology field where I work day in and out.
TMTA future guidance is there problem. Today, they retriated the same from last quarter but didnt get any new contracts in 4th quarter. There product revenue increased which is dying line, hence discontinuation of line would have caused real issues for 4th quarter results.
The cash they have is from anti-trust settlement with other companies. Currently they MSFT and SNE using their existing technology but they need to show some progress with other existing partner or bring new partners.
- Dhiraj
Next quarter guidance: revenue $12 mil and loss $0.01.
That is the real problem.
I don't think that the stock will go down much lower,
but I don't think that it will go up to $2.00 either.
That is why I did not take position before their earning release.
The company announced the revenue volatility long time ago.
Big OUCH!!!! >:( It's okay, after a while the monkey doesn't even feel the pinch anymore.
Quote from: LiveLife on November 08, 2005, 11:12:12 AM
I am still writing the draft for "Knowledge Center" swing trading lessons and I'll post later this week.
Good trading!
For those who want to be a swing trader but can't do it due to their work.
the best broker i recommend is "OPTIONXPRESS" because they have this option:
One Triggers: (Patent Pending)
One Triggers Other allows you to enter an initial order and place a second order contingent upon the fill of the first order. For example, this would allow you to place an order to buy a stock and at the same time stage as a sell limit order which would only be sent to the exchange once the first order is filled... how nice is that my fellow traders ;) :D
http://www.optionsxpress.com/welcome/tour/advanced.aspx?sessionid=&nav=quick
Hi, new here, saw a big pullback in the stock today, thinking about getting in tomorrow AM. Anyone have any advice on timing?
Hi, new here, saw a big pullback in TMTA today, thinking about getting in tomorrow or sometime soon.
Anyone have any advice on timing?
TMTA could have used the earnings report intraday! ;)
Those that sold on "possible" bad earnings report may buy back tomorrow, driving up the demand and price.
The earnings report wasn't "spectacular," not bad either. In July, stock gained $1.00+ (the last earnings report?)
Tokyopua, if you are looking to buy in, watch for any early market open dip.
I am "all in" with PAX (both TMTA and PAX are David's "fast 3SOF picks") for now and will be watching the market open closely for either followup gain for profit taking or early market profit taking sell off after $0.55 gain from $0.45 two days ago!
Good trading!
Earnings for the 3rd quarter were good but guidance for the 4th wasn't:
«Transmeta Corp (TMTA) after the closing bell on Tuesday reported third-quarter net earnings of $10.1 million, or 5 cents a share. During the same period a year ago, Transmeta reported a net loss of $28.6 million, or 16 cents a share. The Santa Clara, Calif.-based developer of computing, microprocessor and semiconductor technologies posted revenue of $27.9 million vs. $7 million a year ago. Additionally, the company forecast a fourth-quarter loss of 3 cents a share on revenue of $12 million to $13 million. Two analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call are currently looking for a fourth-quarter profit of a penny a share on revenue of $20 million. Transmeta also said it expects full-year 2005 revenue of at least $71 million.»
I've read the 8-K filing they made with the SEC yesterday, and found a company with little debt (double more cash than debt), and for the nine months ended in September, losing 2 cents a share this year versus a loss of 45 cents last year.
With the kind of margins this company has, just a little more revenue or cost cutting and it would be showing a nice profit, and it would be a steal at current prices.
All right, the 4th quarter isn't going to be great in comparison with the 3rd quarter, but I prefer to make year on year comparisons and a quarter does not make a company. If they come from a loss of 45 cents to just 2 cents (5 cents for the full year 2005, about 60 cents loss per share in 2004), imagine if they can make the same progress in 2006?
They would make a 50 cent per share profit and the P/E would be 2.5. I'm not saying that this will happen, but I think it is a possibility, since the company made this kind of progress from 2004 to 2005.
I was wrong when I held through earnings. I think I would be wrong again if I sold today. I will continue to hold, I don't see all that much fundamental risk people are seeing (not much debt, revenue coming from 3 divisions (Product, License, Service), the three with about the same share).
In 2004, when fundamentals and prospects were much worse, the stock price was higher.
I will continue to hold TMTA, I just wouldn't like to see it break the ascending trendline on the chart below, which is coming up at $1.22.
Just trying to make sense of the action on TMTA and CNST today. I don't have either of them, but wanted to understand what's going on. TMTA announces a profit and the stock is down 20%. CNST posts a loss, and the stock goes up 40%. Could someone explain why these stocks did this?
Thanks,
Leaira
CNST :
Yes...There is a loss : 23.5$ millions against 5.5$ millions a year ago but two thinks :
1.The results included an asset impairment charge of $22.2 million, or $1.63 a share.
2. Net sales grew 15.4% to $259 million, reflecting increased resin prices and shipments of both conventional and custom products in the United States -> good perpective
Market is always interesting in future revenue...Or surprises !!!
Technicals :
Candelstick : white marabuzu
MACD > 0 AND rsi > 50
pRCIE CLOSE above MA50
volume spike
Good base at 1.55
target at 4.00
time to buy...
TMTA...
I don't know...Sometimes market react wery slowly...
But if you look at the chart...We have a great level at 1.25-1.23..investors placed their order at this level...RSI shows an oversold situation (>70)...Market just need to breathe before to increase again.1.25 was tested three times !!! I believe TMTA go to increase in the next days...Be patient. A cup and handle is forming...
buy at 1.370
target at 2.00
stop loss at 1.230
Look at the volume on the TMTA upswing vs prior weekly upswing....
This dog is going down after the dead cat to subdollar BK range....
That doesn't help me much. Nothing really is pointed out to me... and so I have no idea what you're talking about. Why does volume lead to a 75% decline? It helps to post justification for your thoughts.
TMTA touched support yesterday (I've adapted my trendline a bit) and recovered some ground to close above the opening price.
As I've said, I don't see results as bad as people are painting it, in fact, I'm quite bullish on the fundamentals of TMTA. But I need to be disciplined, so I will hold for as long as the stock shows a medium term uptrend.
I got supports at $1.28 and $1.21. If the stock is set to close below $1.21, I'll take my loss and move on, if it closes above support I'll continue holding it.
I think the worst is behind us on TMTA. The stock made a second attempt at breaking the ascending trendline and rebounded again for a close higher than the open. I think now TMTA will slowly start filling that opened gap ($1.42-$1.61).
My safety net is that second trendline that today will come at $1.22.
The trading plan is:
Hold if TMTA is set to close above $1.22, otherwise sell.
I took my position on TMTA based on technicals and fundamentals, now I have to manage it. I can't allow a big loss, because of my money management rules. But I can hold for now, since the stock is still showing respect for a medium term ascending trendline.
The trendline that's working as support will come at $1.28 today, but my safety net is a bit below, today at $1.23.
The trading plan is:
1) Hold if the stock is set to close above $1.23
2) If the stock is set to close below $1.23, sell.
TMTA is a no brainer, if the stock is set to close below $1.24 I'll sell for a manageable loss. If not I'll continue holding.
TMTA slightly broke an ascending trendline, but I'm considering another one for hold/sell decisions. That one is coming up at $1.24 today. I hope the stock holds that level on close, but if it is set to close below $1.24 I'll sell without regrets.
Trading Plan for TMTA: IF the stock is set to close today positive or unchanged, HOLD. IF it is set to close negative, SELL.
Unfortunately I had to let go of TMTA yesterday at $1.23, according to plan. I wish good luck to anybody that continues holding.
TMTA could be coming back again! Good MACD with solid bounce off of 200 dma a couple weeks ago and a break of the 50 dma and a descending wedge. Also had a golden cross a few months ago. Has solid support at 1.40 and 1.25 and little resistance until 1.80 or 1.85. Some solid volume recently. Good upward movement over past few weeks with no earnings to ruin it. Recent news has been neutral and fundamentals are improving with very little debt. Hoping the trend continues and looking for a move towards 1.80 during the next month before any pull back. Here's an updated chart:
Looks like after earnings and the CC last night TMTA is on the rebound. they have really turned this company around, beating all expectations. 2005 rev increase 147%, they just announced a deal with Toshiba and it looks like the ongoing secretive Microsoft deal will beunvieled in Q2. It also looks like it will involve the TMTA Efficion chip and not just LR2 technology.Check out the CC on their site. It's going to climb for a few days at least, and some upgrades may be on the cards.
Somethings up. Volume of 27 million the last 3 days.
This one is going higher, closed the gap yesterday............
Break out coming................
This is going to be on FIRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 18 million shares traded today!
YESTERDAY'S HEADLINES MAR 20, 200610:28AM
TMTA: Reports of Secret Hardware Project w/Microsoft [delayed]
Comtex News Network
Ridgeland, MS, MAR 20, 2006 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) --The Seattle Post-Intelligencer reported today that Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is working with Transmeta Corp. (TMTA) on a secret hardware project. Neither company would comment about what Transmeta has been doing for Microsoft.
GET KNOBIAS IN REAL-TIME: Delivery of this proprietary Knobias alert has been delayed by at least 10 minutes. To get all Knobias alerts in real-time daily, visit http://www.knobias.com/cmtx
ABOUT KNOBIAS: Knobias is a premier financial information provider of trading and investing data covering all U.S. equities for investors and security professionals. Knobias is best described by its three major components: Real-time desktop applications providing quotes, charts, level 2, analysis etc.; Knobias RAiDAR providing thousands of real-time news stories, alerts and documents daily; Knobias fundamentals providing a comprehensive database of fundamental research information.
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Disclosure: I will be buying this as soon as my TIE funds settle
cal >:D >:D >:D >:D >:D
Hit 2.18 intra day... now in the lower 2.00's
If it breaks 2.13 I would buy,but not before that.
Now for my target retracement entry....
1.80 appears to be the most likely support level....
Quote from: akclide on March 21, 2006, 11:51:40 AM
If it breaks 2.13 I would buy,but not before that.
It already broke 2.13..... HOD was 2.18
I like the retracement entry a little better. Anywhere in the 1.80's looks great, but even something around 2.00 will do just fine >:D
cal
Hey Calven,
If you look at the time of the post you will see that stock was pulling back.I was looking for a confirmation of the uptrend so when I said 2.13 actual price was around 2.08.I wanted to see it go higher and cross 2.13,but it did not.Anymore I rather make 5-6 cents less than loose15-20 cents.
Im waiting for a retracement. First order at 1.82 - I will average in after that....
cal >:D
Some fairly large volume today and a break back above psych resistance at 2.00
Good action so far today....
>:D
Here is the source of this speculation and recent runup! ;D
http://www.windowsfordevices.com/news/NS7454672358.html
Updated Technical Outlook on TMTA....
Seems like a little triangle forming here... Would like to see TMTA hold 2.00 and certainly not tick below 1.99
Thanks for the update calven,
The after hours in yahoo show 2.01 but the nasdaq show 2.05 last bid. Do you know anything about this?
indicators look good.
thanks,
rafael
Im still holding my TMTA shares. I think we are about to test breakout levels...
Take a look at this chart
Hey Calven, you did not state @ what price you picked up TMTA ??? You have a target for it ??
Quote from: REALDEALS21 on April 06, 2006, 08:23:20 PM
Hey Calven, you did not state @ what price you picked up TMTA ??? You have a target for it ??
2.45 target - averaged in from 1.9685
I like the recent action ! Hammer candle with confirmation today. Resistance near today's high - 2.05. Needs to break through that.
cal >:D
8:58AM Transmeta files 8-K disclosing new project agreements with Sony (TMTA) 2.02 : Co disclosed that on April 3 and April 6, 2006, Transmeta Corporation entered into a series of new project agreements for Transmeta to continue providing design and engineering services to Sony Computer Entertainment and Sony Corporation during the second year of the two-year design services agreement between Transmeta and the Sony Group first announced in March 2005. Transmeta's first set of project agreements with the Sony Group expired by their terms on March 31, 2006, corresponding to the Sony Group's fiscal year end. The new project agreements provide for Transmeta to perform a variety of design and engineering services for the Sony Group over project periods ranging from three months to one year, ending March 31, 2007. Under the new project agreements, Transmeta initially will provide the services of more than 100 engineers in the second quarter of 2006 to work on advanced projects for Sony Group. Transmeta and the Sony Group are currently discussing additional potential engineering projects for Transmeta to perform for the Sony Group under the design services agreement, but there can be no assurance that the parties will enter into any additional project agreements.
2.50 is likely in play short term! >:D
Just picked up more TMTA at 2.09 - strong support at 2.00-2.05 and those new partnerships should result in more upward movement. >:D
We'll see what shakes!
cal
Nice one Cal,
I bought the gap up on Friday, somewhat foolishly, but agree, that the news should result in a strong rebound from these levels. The gap is filled, and I would like to see 2.02 hold as support. Hopefully I'll be back in the green on this one soon!
Im down a little on this one also. I certainly expected TMTA to move higher when that SONY news was released. I cant complain too much though....the entire market has been getting slammed lately.
Anyways - here is the channel I see TMTA following. Should help you place your stops...One tick below 1.85 and Ill probably close this for a loss...I really think TMTA will rebound though. ;)
cal
Volume wasn't all that impressive yesterday, and it made the same correction that much of the market did :'(. I'm also expecting it to bounce today (picked up around 2.10 on Monday). GLTA!
I'm with you on that one Calven, but for me selling on a move below 1.85 would be a pretty big loss :P
Still, the whole semi/tech sector got hit hard yesterday, with Ciena appearing to lead the charge lower. Will have to see whether today's action will continue that bloodbath, or whether things will stabilise, and we'll see buyers coming in at these more attractive prices.
Well we had a nice positive day yesterday, confirming Tuesdays low of 1.93, and I think TMTA should be back to moving positively from here - just wanted to post this chart - if you look at the long term weekly chart, TMTA has made a nice inverse H&S formation, and I think it should continue this breakout pattern.
I think if we get back above 2.20, it should be pretty easy for TMTA to move through the soft area between there and 3.00 - there is some resistance around 2.45 also.
I think I'm willing to hang in on this one and see how it plays out.
I'm ready for this to start moving back up >:D
found this on yahoo:
the inverted H&S is looking very nice. Now sitting right at the neckline breakout point.
target price is the difference between the low at the head (0.60) and neckline (2.00), or (2.00-0.60 = 1.40), added to the neckline, i.e.:
target = 2.00 + 1.40 = $3.40
Current price is coincidentally the handle for a nice Aug-05 to late-March cup & handle pattern. I posted about this a week or so ago (as have others). With another week of handle formation at ~2.00 the pattern is now stronger. Odds for it to breakout to the upside and odds against it breaking down have increased.
These are two of the most powerful chart patterns going, and they coincide right now at this pps. Combine that with improving market awareness of the very stuff that TMTA is all about (leakage, performance/watt) and pending news (E3 road show w/ enhanced LR2, M$FT project, PS3/PSP, cell, royalties within ~6 months, potential new licensees, etc.) and this is looking more and more compelling IMO
I am still holding all of my shares - I still see this pick turning up soon...probably tomorrow. >:D
Some interesting trades in AH action (up) : http://quotes.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?mode=&page=afterhours&symbol=TMTA&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&selected=tmta&FormType=&kind=&Leap=&mkttype=after&sel=afterhours&userinput=&x=0&y=0
This may be the partial reason for the move : IBM net climbs 22 pct on lower costs, chip sales
I see this position going to 3.00 -
Lets hope so Cal,
I'm still in from 2.21 - trust me to buy in at very near its high. Yesterday's action was a bit more encouraging, and the support zone between 1.85 and 1.90 held up. I would like to see it get over 2.06 today, which I see as near term resistance, and start recent highs again. The 20ema seems to be providing support, as well as the trendline I have drawn in.
Will hang in there as long as both of these hold, and resist my impatience, waiting for greener days ;)
Today's action was very strong - now lets not go below 2.00.... >:D
Looks like TMTA wanted to tag the trendline - on the nail!
Now lets see if it can react well and push its way back over 2.14 - that seems to be the key imo ;)
Bollinger bands are also tightening, in the past this was always good for a nice move up! Hopefully we get a little earnings run! :)
Closing at the highest of the day, this could be it. We'll see if it can break through $2.24 (resistance level) tomorrow. I loaded my truck today.
A good note here, the stock just closed at 52wk high. ;)
Great action today- now it needs to break 2.15 resistance! >:D
I have been watching TMTA for a while and I believe this is it. The stock has been trading in a range of $1.77 - $2.24 since March 20, 2006. As I appointed before TMTA closed at the highest level of the last 52 weeks, this is very significant. I expect a breakout of the $2.24 resistance level tomorrow or next Monday. ;)
Quote from: cache00 on April 27, 2006, 04:01:10 PM
A good note here, the stock just closed at 52wk high. ;)
52 week high is @ $2.50
Something to be aware of:
Transmeta Corporation Schedules First Quarter 2006 Earnings Release & Conference Call
Tuesday April 18, 6:00 am ET
SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 18, 2006--Transmeta Corporation (NASDAQ:TMTA - News), the leader in efficient computing technologies, will announce results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2006 after the NASDAQ market closes on Tuesday, May 9, 2006.
QuoteA good note here, the stock just closed at 52wk high.
Quote52 week high is @ $2.50
Hi Terlisa, let me rephrase that, TMTA closed on a new 52wk high (on close, not on intraday trading). By the way, your TGB has really been on fire, nice!
TMTA showed strength early in the trading session and seemed to tank with the Nasdaq... could retest 2.05 trendline support. TMTA seems to be setting up nicely for May 9th earnings. Any thoughts on holding through earnings???
"Coming closer to the apex where "the action" is suppose to come (volatility)...
Interestingly enough, this ascending triangle (usually bullish) seems to match up with the May 9th earnings date..."
calven >:D
Breakout on its way, TMTA just broke $2.24.
Any reason for this small pop or purely technical???
Looks like we will drift higher into the earnings announcement.... >:D
You said it all calven, technicals + pre-earnings run moving the stock higher.
Bought @ 2.20. Hope this isn't a fakeout!
This better be good I have had mine at 1.91... ironic I was plannin to sell on open.. I guess not....:P
Given INTEL's weakness what do you guys think about holding TMTA through May 9th earnings? Seems a bit risky to me...thoughts? >:D
Since I'm a short-term trader I have a rule, do not hold stocks through earnings reports.
I definately agree with you...too much risk involved. I think I will just let this run play out and take profits later this week... >:D
BTW - My target is 2.45
TA Breakout Chart...
posted something similar in the ascending triangle post.....
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4712.msg60053#msg60053
cheers, i
B
This looks like a true breakout to me cuz the bollinger bands are spreading apart. Also, this is the highest closing. The stock traded higher than this before, but never closed this high in the last year. But on the downside, earnings are next week, and I like to be in trades longer than a few days. Also we're running into 2-year-old resistance in the 2.40 range.
Good luck!
Leaira
Finally this puppy is moving! :D
Found this message(with 26recs) on the Yahoo MB
Should we sell prior to earnings????
by: cajone1979 05/03/06 10:43 pm
Msg: 81588 of 81633
That would appear to be the question of the day. So what might happen next Tuesday and soon thereafter?
Scenario #1
Management forecast at least $27M revenue 1H06. Let's assume 1Q06 revenue will consist ONLY of $10.3M service revenue (identical to 3Q and 4Q 05) and $0.6M deferred product revenue (per 10Q), yielding the worse case scenario $11M revenue for 1Q06....
That represents a 60% increase Q1 vs Q1 increase (1Q05 rev = $6.9M)...nice headline, don't you think!? Q1 net loss would be ($0.02) vs (0.11) in 1Q05, and in line with analyst estimates, and projected Q2 revenue would be AT LEAST $16M ($7M service + $9M deferred milestone revenue).
Scenario #2
Q1 revenue consists of the base $11M + a portion of the deferred milestone$2-3 M service revenue + $1M other sources....
1Q06 revenue would then slightly exceed 4Q05; Q1 to Q1 increase would be >100%; and net loss would be only (0.01) to nearly break-even.
Scenario #3
All deferred milestone revenue from 2005 is recognized in Q1...
1Q06 revenue would be ~ $20M representing a 3-FOLD Q1 vs Q1 increase, >50% increase from last quarter, and 4-5 cent net gain (I would love to write that headline). Only downside here, of course, would be the possible revenue gap in Q2, BUT.......
All 3 scenarios above are based on $27M 1H revenue. In line with past 5 quarter experience, however, bet on more here than was forecast ---maybe even a royalty dollar or two from Fuji.....
Equally important to finances at this point is the more tangible anticipation of the great things to come, and May is simply bubbling with opportunity: partner news, real product updates including a potential blockbuster MSFT release, new Efficeon detail, almost predictable improved guidance (if nothing else resulting from Sony renewal or inclusion of Toshiba $$ in guidance); or how about another licensee, or even an brokerage upgrade on nearly the 1 year anniversary of the infamous "farewell" article???
No---I'm holding for at least another double or two before I even think of selling a share.
Long and strong (and a lot richer) with IGNORE ON!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don't you think positive earnings is already priced into the stock?
TMTA, ahead of earnings:
1. It had a breakout of a "W"-Bottom (pattern in blue) that put Target: 2.37 IN PLAY. The target MADE to the exact penny on May 3.
Targets getting MADE doesn't mean that the stock won't go higher, but it's a good idea to "take profits when targets get MADE." Sometimes, that's the high for awhile.
2. The rally to the 2.37 target is a Bearish Rising Wedge. After the initial push to #1 (circled in red) on good volume, each successive rally to #3 and to #5 was on declining volume each time. It's running out of momo.
3. The Bearish Rising Wedge also has the look of a Bearish Wolfe Wave.
4. Wave #5 to the 2.37 target on May 3 was an upside "fakeout" above the Bearish Wedge, and it also was a Bearish Doji Star candlestick.
5. May 4 was another Doji Star candlestick. A little one. May 5 showed some weakness to the downside.
Wow Melf,
This is interesting.... the way i see it is that TMTA had a breakout from the ascending trinagle and now it is consolidating on a bullish flag of falling wedge w lowering volumne.. I think this stock is seeting itself up for another leg up...
I would appreciate any commnets if you see a flaw in my read of this chart...
comments appreciated...
thanks
B
My thoughts on TMTA...
1) I think they will report a good one on tuesday
2) The trendline still valid in the weekly chart
3) No doubt that the BULLS still controlling TMTA (we will find that out on tuesday if they still do)
4) I like the set-up in the weekly chart
5) Most of all............................------->>>>Moving Averages<<<----
Only my thoughts & trade it good.............. ;)
Quote from: beroznikmal on May 07, 2006, 11:12:56 AM
Wow Melf,
This is interesting.... the way i see it is that TMTA had a breakout from the ascending trinagle and now it is consolidating on a bullish flag of falling wedge w lowering volumne.. I think this stock is seeting itself up for another leg up...
B.,
Wow...that
is interesting! :D Applause for your post.
Quote
I would appreciate any commnets if you see a flaw in my read of this chart...
comments appreciated...
An Ascending Triangle should have two reaction highs that are relatively equal. They don't have to be exact, but should be in "reasonable proximity." The latter is a judgment call.
The way that you've drawn your Ascending Triangle:
1. You've ignored the rally to the high of 2.18 on March 21, and started your pattern at a lower price, a few days later. That seem like an arbitrary place to begin the pattern. I wouldn't ignore the 2.18 high.
2. I especially wouldn't ignore the March 20 and 21 rally to the 2.18 high and start the pattern elsewhere because that two day push to 2.18 were the highest volume days since August, 2005. That has some significance.
3. The March 21 high of 2.18 also marked the end of a five week rally. TMTA had a sideways to down consolidation after that, and found support two cents below the little Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue...those highs are 'close enough' to be a little Ascending Triangle, BTW).
In my view, the end of a rally or the end of a decline is a pivotal point on a chart. We want to see what happens after that, so it's a good place to label #1. Then at the following reaction high or reaction low, place a #2. Then #3 and #4. Now, extend both trendlines out into the future.
Once those are in place, we can see how the market reacts to those trendlines.
In this case, on April 24, April 26 and April 27, TMTA reacted to the lower trendline by finding support, and by finally rallying back to the top of the Bearish Rising Wedge. That's called a trendline validation.
The market is telling us very clearly that there is validity to the trendline that we drew off #2 and #4.
What happened afer that? On May 3, TMTA broke through the top of the pattern, making the 2.37 target that was IN PLAY, then closed back below it.
Three things about that suggest that there is validiity to the Bearish Rising Wedge pattern:
1. If you draw your pattern exactly as I have, the volume at #1, #3 and #5 gets successively lower. That's a hallmark of a Bearish Rising Wedge. It "appears" to still be bullish, but rallies are on declining volume.
2. The rally to 2.37, so far, was a "fakeout breakout." TMTA couldn't hold the breakout at the close.
3. The May 3 candlestick is a Bearish Doji Star, as I mentioned earlier. That's just one candlestick. We want confirmation that it really is bearish. So far, we have another little Bearish Doji Star, and then little black candlestick, indicating some weakness.
All of that only is "evidence" that we try to piece together, especially ahead of earnings. That doesn't mean that TMTA
can't break out to the upside on great earnings. The fundamentals always have a chance of trumping the technicals. But, as the chart stands, I view the pattern from the March 21 high as a classic Bearish Rising Wedge.
Obviously, we differ on that, and since you're long and I'm not, I hope that TMTA reports outstanding earnings, and that this pattern (whichever it is) resolves with a big move to the UPSIDE.
;D :D ;D
Good luck, B.! (And, good luck to Alister, who I see just posted) ;)
Melf,
wow that was a very impressive answer! I must admit the reasoning behind ur anlysis is sound!
I have reviisied my diagram on TMTA and i still think it is bullish
Notice that i included the breakout om March 21 per your recommendation, point 1
on 4/7/6, the resistance that was established on march 21 was confirmed. this was again confirmed on 4/28/06....
TMTA then brokeout of the triangle and this was confirmed by high volume....
currently, I still think is is consilidating......
I am currently on the border line with TMTA! and this is the reson for my curiousity! thanx for ir response! much appreciated!
I still have two business days to decide on whether to hold my position or not! ah I love the game!
Cheers
B
Quote from: beroznikmal on May 07, 2006, 05:13:42 PM
on 4/7/6, the resistance that was established on march 21 was confirmed. this was again confirmed on 4/28/06....
TMTA then brokeout of the triangle and this was confirmed by high volume....
B.,
You certainly have a case, and you've presented it very well. Applause.
The volume on the recent breakout to 2.37 was good, but it was less than it was at #1 and #3, and it also was less than the volume on the breakout of the "W'-Bottom in late February, and less than it was at the second data point (1.81) of the little Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue) on March 7.
What bothers me about that is the fact that Bearish Wedges "appear to be bullish" because the stock still is making higher highs, as TMTA is, but one of the ways that you can tell that it's a Bearish Rising Wedge, is that volume decreases as the stock rallies into the convergence of the trendlines, which also is the case with TMTA.
Quote
I still have two business days to decide on whether to hold my position or not!
Do you ever feel like if you hold it, the stock will crash, if you sell it, the stock will gap up 20%?
>:D ;D >:D
Two numbers that you might want to consider in making your decision are 2.21 and 2.18.
2.21, the low of the Bearish Doji Star Hangman the day that TMTA made the high of 2.37 last week, can be considered a technical "sell pivot." A print of 2.20, a tick below that low, can be considered a technical sell. It's another piece of evidence: the entire May 3 candlestick (2.21 - 2.37) will have been traded below on a print of 2.20.
2.18, the March 21 high, is the top of your Ascending Triangle. A print of 2.17, especially a close of 2.17, puts TMTA back below the Ascending Triangle, just a day or two ahead of earnings. Another piece of evidence.
Below that, of course, is key support along the bottom trendline of the pattern, which twice has been validated as support. If that gets broken to the downside, I'd be surprised if it's today or Tuesday. The market seems to have a perverse proclivity for reserving those breaks for a gap down if earnings disappoint, or if the response to earnings is "good earnings....but, buy the rumor... sell the news."
Just a few things to consider in making your decision. Best of luck to you!
Quote
ah I love the game!
Me-e-e-e, too! Great fun! ;)
Sorry about the chart looking scrunched. I have to remove the title bars from all of my other windows in order to show you volume, but they still take up some room.
:(
Quote
Quote
Quote from: Terlisa on May 07, 2006, 01:10:56 PM
My thoughts on TMTA...
1) I think they will report a good one on tuesday
2) The trendline still valid in the weekly chart
3) No doubt that the BULLS still controlling TMTA (we will find that out on tuesday if they still do)
4) I like the set-up in the weekly chart
5) Most of all............................------->>>>Moving Averages<<<----
Only my thoughts & trade it good.............. ;)
I also think we might get a positive surprise tomorrow, CEO Swift stated in his last CC they expect the MICROSOFT Secret Project to be completed the first half of this year, maybe we get some news of that. Also today SONY & MICROSOFT are making major announcements in Los Angeles regarding Playstation 3 and XBOX, coïncidence? :)
Quote from: Se7en on May 08, 2006, 10:42:19 AM
Quote from: Terlisa on May 07, 2006, 01:10:56 PM
My thoughts on TMTA...
1) I think they will report a good one on tuesday
2) The trendline still valid in the weekly chart
3) No doubt that the BULLS still controlling TMTA (we will find that out on tuesday if they still do)
4) I like the set-up in the weekly chart
5) Most of all............................------->>>>Moving Averages<<<----
Only my thoughts & trade it good.............. ;)
I also think we might get a positive surprise tomorrow, CEO Swift stated in his last CC they expect the MICROSOFT Secret Project to be completed the first half of this year, maybe we get some news of that. Also today SONY & MICROSOFT are making major announcements in Los Angeles regarding Playstation 3 and XBOX, coïncidence? :)
Hum this is very interesting....
I am still 50/50 on this stock... it went up on new higs with below average volume... usually when this happens pre CC the stock goes the opposite way post earnings.. but who knows...
Will decide later today....
Cheers...
B
The top of the Bearish Rising Wedge came in yesterday came in at 2.337. The high was 2.33. It comes in today at 2.342.
Good luck everybody with whatever you decide ahead of earnings.
EDIT: Good luck, B.! You posted while I was typing. :D
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 09, 2006, 08:42:10 AM
The top of the Bearish Rising Wedge came in yesterday came in at 2.337. The high was 2.33. It comes in today at 2.342.
The high of the day so far is
2.34, printed right at 9:30AM after the open.
wow... this is crazy...:D good call... hum what to do.. what to do... I think i might just hold thru the cc... try my luck...:P ;D
Quote from: beroznikmal on May 09, 2006, 01:22:17 PM
wow... this is crazy...:D good call... hum what to do.. what to do... I think i might just hold thru the cc... try my luck...:P ;D
B,
Traders have responded twice in the past two days to the top of the Bearish Rising Wedge, so that's another piece of evidence that the trendline is important.
Again, that doesn't mean that it can't get taken out to the upside on earnings, but personally, I'd get out of there if the bottom rail of the pattern gets taken out tomorrow.
Depending on whether you use the low of April 17 or April 27 to draw the trendline, the bottom of the Bearish Rising Wedge comes in tomorrow between 2.12 and 2.145.
Good luck! I hope that it goes higher on earnings.
I concur... $2.12 would be my exit point... I would break even...:D.. I'll place a stop ( although I hate placing stops) at $2.12.....
Muahhahah.. this should be interesting and more importantly educational for me.....
I appreciate the heads up.Thanks Melf....
B
Out TMTA @ 2.30
Good luck with the CC all - 50/50 for positive news. Not willling to flip a coin...ill probably miss out - oh well :-\
cal
Link to CC - http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/6/68966.html
1.98 AH 40 minutes ahead of earnings what is going on???
Glad I got out though...
Transmeta Corporation Announces CFO Transition Plan
Business Wire - May 09, 2006 16:06
SANTA CLARA, Calif., May 09, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Transmeta Corporation (NASDAQ:TMTA), the leader in efficient computing technologies, today announced that Mark R. Kent, the Company's chief financial officer, plans to resign following the filing of the Company's Form 10-Q for the first quarter ended March 31, 2006. Transmeta has initiated a search for a new CFO and is defining its transition plan. Kent will be available to the Company on a consulting basis for a three month interim period while a CFO search is conducted.
"Mark has made significant contributions to our corporate transformation, including helping us to refine our strategy, enhance our liquidity position, build the finance team and infrastructure, and drive our efforts to become fully compliant with the requirements of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act," commented Arthur L. Swift, president and CEO. "I want to thank Mark, and I wish him success in his future endeavors."
"I have enjoyed working with Art, the Board and my colleagues at Transmeta," commented Mark R. Kent, chief financial officer. "When I came to Transmeta over a year and half ago, my goal was to help the executive team and the Board to get the Company onto a more sustainable strategic path, and I now feel that we have accomplished this goal."
Calven, I'm glad you didn't gamble on TMTA, I made some money last week. ;D
Quote from: calven on May 09, 2006, 04:10:16 PM
1.98 AH 40 minutes ahead of earnings what is going on???
Glad I got out though...
Calven,
A well-timed exit. Applause.
Earnings out at 4:05PM Q1 is a loss of a penny. It's indicated well below the Bearish Rising Wedge. I was afraid of that, given the bearish evidence in the chart.
It doesn't look good for tomorrow's open. :(
Current quote is BID 1.67...ASK 1.70.
I'm not IN to this stock... I only gave my opinion about it ...Melf Elf analysis is correct (applaud)
BID 1.67 ASK 168
From what I read they actuall beat by a penny? CEO resigning is what is sending it down - correct?
I am also glad I sold.... whew ;D
Oh shit, I'm still in it:D
Lesson well learned... let see how bad ill do... :'(
Cheers
B
Quote from: calven on May 09, 2006, 04:22:23 PM
From what I read they actuall beat by a penny? CEO resigning is what is sending it down - correct?
I am also glad I sold.... whew ;D
CEO resigning? that's BAD.
After Hours (RT-ECN):
1.70 0.60 (26.09%)
Quote from: Terliso on May 09, 2006, 04:34:40 PM
Quote from: calven on May 09, 2006, 04:22:23 PM
From what I read they actuall beat by a penny? CEO resigning is what is sending it down - correct?
I am also glad I sold.... whew ;D
CEO resigning? that's BAD.
After Hours (RT-ECN): 1.70 0.60 (26.09%)
MELF ELF saved my ass too in CPST...thanks Melf ;)
Quote from: Terliso on May 09, 2006, 04:21:41 PM
BID 1.67 ASK 168
Alister,
If TMTA trades there tomorrow, that's right where the Bearish Wolfe Wave target comes in.
Quote from: Terliso on May 09, 2006, 04:37:17 PM
[MELF ELF saved my ass too in CPST...thanks Melf ;)
You're welcome, Alister. Your work helps me, too. Thanks.
Id also like to thank Melf Elf for pointing out that rising wedge...
I was going to sell TMTA regardless of anyone elses posts since I dont hold through any CCs - but you "put the nail in the coffin" so to speak.
I may rebuy TMTA in a few weeks. I still think it is a takeover candidate with good technology. Probably worth well over 1.00 per share on a buyout...
cal >:D
F**************k, yesterday i was thinking about holding, today i got a bit scared and i was planning to sell but i wasn't at home in time! :'( :( :( :( :(
Melf Elf, what do you mean with 'the Bearish Wolfe Wave target comes in.', does it mean it will have support around 1.68?
Quote from: Se7en on May 09, 2006, 05:45:47 PM
Melf Elf, what do you mean with 'the Bearish Wolfe Wave target comes in.',
Se7en,
I mean that's where the Bearish Wolfe Wave target will be MADE.
Quote
does it mean it will have support around 1.68?
No. It "could" find support there, but it doesn't mean that it "will" find support there.
Quote
F**************k, yesterday i was thinking about holding, today i got a bit scared and i was planning to sell but i wasn't at home in time!
Drat!
We need that face on the toolbar, cursing inaudibly, so that no one's sensitivies are offended.
Curses! Curses! Curses! >:D >:D >:D
Sorry that you got caught long on this one. Applause for your honesty, and applause to Beroznikmal for his honesty, too. Rarely do people on the internet EVER admit that they have a loss in a stock, and I greatly admire both of you for being "real." Applause.
Pain in the you-know-what, though. Sorry for you loss, guys.
Thx Melf Elf, i've learned my lesson, yesterday i was thinking about holding through earnings while i had some bad experience with holding through earnings before, i shouldn't even have considered it and should have sold yesterday with a 9% gain, now it will probably be a big loss!
If i was home in time i would have sold today but the fact that i was doubting yesterday pisses me of now, i should have stayed with my plan, a valuable lesson learned! Plan the trade, trade the plan!
Let's see what tomorrow brings, hopefully it can bounce back a little in the afternoon so i can get out at a more 'decent' price!
uhhh that was painful... took the dog out for a long walk and reflected ;D...
I think i'm ok now... uhh tomorrow I have a busy day... two stock will have their CC on Thursday.... hahah i'm selling :P
Thanx all... an expensive lesson hopefully learned....
Cheers...
B
hi,
when the elf speaks it pays to listen.
a couple of times he saved my arse on stocks when they reached thier target and i sold.
applause melf elf
maxi
1) MELF ELF
2) Bearish Rising Wedge
3) Earnings
4) 80 (SMA) distribution
TMTA After Hours (RT-ECN): 1.76 0.54 (23.48%)
Quote from: rickjust on May 09, 2006, 06:59:25 PM
hi,
when the elf speaks it pays to listen.
a couple of times he saved my arse on stocks when they reached thier target and i sold.
applause melf elf
maxi
Hey, maxi!
Thanks, and I'm glad if the targets have helped you. As you know, targets don't always get MADE, and sometimes they're exceeded by a lot, but "taking profits when targets get MADE" has saved my arse more than a few times, too.
Often, it seems almost uncanny how close stocks come to making pattern targets. Probably because in this age of computers and readily available data, technicians all are looking at the same thing.
In the case of TMTA, the "W"-Bottom target of
2.37 MADE
to the exact penny, right at the Bearish Wolfe Wave #5 upside fakeout.
Next post, we'll look at some downside targets tht will be IN PLAY if we gap down below the Beaish Rising Wedge and the Bearish Wolfe Wave.
Good trading to you, maxi!
When calculating targets, if have more than one choice, as is the case with the bottom of the Bearish Rising Wedge, I always use the more consevative of the two (or more). Choices are 2.12 and 2.145; so I'll use the 2.145.
If TMTA gaps down this morning below 2.12 - 2.145, which seems likely, these targets will be IN PLAY.
Target #1: 1.77 - that's the bottom of the Bearish Rising Wedge.
Target #2: 1.664 - that's today's data point along the Beaish Wolfe Wave target line (connect the high of Wave #1 and the low of Wave #4 and extend it. That points to the Bearish Wolfe Wave Target, #6.
Target #3: 1.545 - that's the height of the Bearish Rising Wedge, subtracted from the point of the breakdown.
Math:
High of the Bearish Rising Wedge - 2.37
Low of the Bearish Rising Wedge - 1.77
Breakdown occurs at 2.145
2.37 = 1.77 = 0.60 points
Breakdown at 2.145 - 0.60 points = Target: 1.545 IN PLAY
The rising 200DMA was at 1.4875 at yesterday's close and will rise a little each day.
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 05:53:25 AM
Target #3: 1.545 - that's the height of the Bearish Rising Wedge, subtracted from the point of the breakdown.
Bought TMTA at
1.54. Stop: 1.44. Risk: a loss of 6.5%
All three downside targets MADE at the open, which is the ONLY reason that I am willing to play it for a bounce.
TMTA currently is BID 1.58...ASK 1.59
Nice buy near the LOD Melf Elf, around what price do you hope of selling?
I'm still holding and hoping that the pps recovers a bit ... :-\
Quote from: Se7en on May 10, 2006, 10:20:35 AM
Nice buy near the LOD Melf Elf, around what price do you hope of selling?
Se7en,
Thanks.
I'm looking for a snapback rally to 1.664 - 1.77.
1.664 wasTarget #2: the Wolfe Wave target line.
1.77 was Target #1: the bottom of the broken Bearish Wedge/Bearish Wolfe Wave.
So far, the Wolfe Wave target line (
1.664) is acting as resistance. The high on the day is
1.67.
Quote
I'm still holding and hoping that the pps recovers a bit ... :-\
Me, too. Good luck! ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 09:43:01 AM
Bought TMTA at 1.54. Stop: 1.44. Risk: a loss of 6.5%
All three downside targets MADE at the open, which is the ONLY reason that I am willing to play it for a bounce.
Sold TMTA at 1.58. Gain: 2.6%
Not much of a bounce. No buying interest. As the saying goes, "If this chart were a patient, he'd be dead." They might try to take it down again to the morning low of 1.51, or the 200DMA at 1.49. I decided to take the money.
Nice trade Melf ;)
I am in at 1.57. Also considering getting in for a bounce on AVII, also down 33% today, anyone have any thoughts on that?
Quote from: Terliso on May 10, 2006, 01:59:22 PM
Nice trade Melf ;)
Thanks, Alister. I thought about taking half at the 1.664 Wolfe Wave target play back, but it was so early in the day, I decided to hold out for the 1.70s. So far, that 1.67 remains the high on the day.
Coulda...shoulda...woulda, huh? :D
I'm grateful for whatever Ms. Market offers, even if it's only a
tiny gain. ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 03:10:16 PM
I thought about taking half at the 1.664 Wolfe Wave target play back
Oops...when I calculated the three downside targets yesterday morning, I forgot to add one day to the Wolfe Wave target line to factor for yesterday's trading, so I was off by 0.015, which is the slope of the target line. It came in yesterday at
1.649, not 1.664. The other two targets weren't time-related, so they weren't affected.
Sorry for the mistake.
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 12:25:54 PM
Sold TMTA at 1.58. Gain: 2.6%
Bought back TMTA at 1.50. Stop: 1.44 again. Risk: a loss of 4%
Quote
They might try to take it down again to the morning low of 1.51, or the 200DMA at 1.49. I decided to take the money.
TMTA just printed the
1.49 200DMA. The low of the Ascending Triangle (blue pattern in the daily chart posted above) was 1.48. I'll give a few more pennies below that (Stop:1.44) intraday, but if it looks like it's going to close weak, I'll sell it.
TMTA currently is BID 1.49...ASK 1.50
Quote
Quote
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 11, 2006, 11:23:54 AM
Bought back TMTA at 1.50. Stop: 1.44 again. Risk: a loss of 4%
Aww-w...they got me. Stopped out at 1.44. Loss: 4%
Tactical mistake: I should have put my stop at 1.47, below the 1.48-1.49 support. Technically, the stock didn't deserve any room below 1.48, and that would have given me a break even on the two trades. My bad.
I'm still holding and i was hoping for a little bounce but it's the contrary, the market isn't helping either right now ... :(
Quote from: Se7en on May 11, 2006, 12:24:49 PM
I'm still holding and i was hoping for a little bounce but it's the contrary, the market isn't helping either right now ... :(
Se7en,
That's an awful position to be in. I've been there, believe me.
I hate to see you hold it so long, though. As much as these situations hurt, you don't want to turn a loss into a disaster.
From yesterday's open of 1.585 to today's low of 1.31 was
another 17.4% loss, which is an additional 34.8% loss for anyone who "doubled down." That's the problem with these stocks that get pounded. They can be good for a quick day trade, but they don't tend to bounce too much, "in general," and they can really hurt you.
I mean "you," in general, not "you," specifically, Se7en. Apologies for the speech, but I hate see any of you guys get hurt too badly. I remember too well how bad it feels.
Anyway, I can't advise you what to do. I wouldn't be that presumptuous. It's YOUR money. But, if you've held this long and suffered through today's tank to 1.31, you've got a chance of some rally if TMTA can continue to come back here, and close on a Bullish Hammer or a Bullish Doji Star at or near the 200DMA, which is 1.49. TMTA has come all the way to BID 1.45...ASK 1.46, currently.
Try to get out of it as best you can, and remember what Beroznikmal said about taking his dog for a walk. It puts things into perspective. You don't want to let any trade hurt you too badly, so that it depletes your resources so that you can't play other profitable opportunites.
Sorry for the speech, Se7en. I don't mean to lecture...just to share my own painful experiences with holding on too long, and with "doubling down." HORRIBLE.
Good luck! You get an applause for encouragement. ;)
Thx for the advice Melf Elf, you're absolutely right, i was thinking the same but it's always good(or better) to hear it from an experienced trader like you!
I wasn't online untill now so i couldn't folllow your advice but i'm planning to sell tomorrow morning or do you think that with this little comeback and a hammer that got printed a reverse is in the works, still needs confirmation though !
Hmm i'm doing it again, so sell on the open, right? :)
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 11, 2006, 03:24:44 PM
you've got a chance of some rally if TMTA can continue to come back here, and close on a Bullish Hammer or a Bullish Doji Star at or near the 200DMA, which is 1.49.
Se7en,
I had a suspicion that they'd close it out near the
1.49 because that's about as EVIL a close possible, and we know how Ms. Market likes to be perverse.
>:D >:D >:D
It's
sooo-oo EVIL because it looks so good, but it's still "so bad."
So Good:1. It's a Bullish Hammer, showing "promise."
Quote
still needs confirmation though !
Exactly.
2. It's a Bullish Hammer closing right on the 200DMA, which looks
very encouraging.
3. The downside smash yesterday to 1.31 "looks like" capitulation on the part of the bulls, which is how bottoms are made. Bulls finally "give it up," and sell at the low, then new buyers step in, which is what occurred yesterday afternoon. That rally from 1.31 to the 1.49 close was a rally of 13.7%. Not bad.
But, was it just a "snap back" rally, or will it follow through to the upside? We don't know.
So Bad:
1. Despite the 13.74% late day rally, anyone who bought on Crash Day (High: 1.67...Low: 1.51) and still is holding it long is under water at yesterday's 1.49 close. The rally didn't put them in the money. Ugh.
2. The "Crash Day" longs are encouraged by yesterday's Bullish Hammer, but they're plenty nervous after seeing TMTA tank to 1.31 yesterday. If they were "lucky enough" to buy the Crash Day low of 1.51, those players had a paper loss of 13.2% at yesterday's 1.31 low. Not so "lucky."
3. On any print today of 1.51 or higher, the "Crash Day" longs start to break even, after suffering a paper loss yesterday of 13.2% MINIMUM. Many of the "Crash Day" longs paid more than 1.51. If they bought the 1.585 open, their paper loss at 1.31 was 17.4%. That's a BIG loss, and many of them would like to get out of this stock at a break even.
TMTA would really have to convince those players to remain long. If it shows weakness, looking lifeless, they'll likely bolt for the exit, particularly ahead of the weekend. They didn't get any bargain on Crash Day, and they'd like to be done with it.
Quote from: Se7en on May 11, 2006, 05:53:09 PM
i'm planning to sell tomorrow morning or do you think that with this little comeback and a hammer that got printed a reverse is in the works, still needs confirmation though !
Hmm i'm doing it again, so sell on the open, right? :)
Yes, you're doing it again, but you've certainly got reason to be doing it again: that close looked so good. It "could have been" at least a short-term capitualtion low, but it also could have been "pure evil," and TMTA could tank back to yesterday's low, and below it.
What I would suggest is this, and I'm
only suggesting: if you don't sell at the open, also don't ride this thing back down to 1.31, or lower. If that was a reversal low yesterday, there should upside follow through today, not weakness and tanking again. Personally, I wouldn't give it much room at all on the downside. That's up to you, of course.
Good luck today!
thx Melf Elf, very very informative, like always! ;) <applause>
It looks like the market isn't going to help much either today, futures are down ...
TMTA breaking out? Up 8% now, (can't post the chart here at home)!
Bottomed and starting a bit of a run if history serves this stock well. Bought 600 shares this afternoon.
Nice breakout from base.............
News!! Up .20 cents to $1.32 AH
Transmeta files patent infringement suit against Intel
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=FLJLWLS3Y1IEIQSNDLOSKHSCJUNN2JVN?articleID=193200733
Quote from: boatguy on October 11, 2006, 11:36:32 PM
News!! Up .20 cents to $1.32 AH
Transmeta files patent infringement suit against Intel
boatguy,
Drat! >:( >:D
I would much rather have seen a gap up
after TMTA completed a W-bottom here, by eventually printing
1.37.On August 8, 2005 (chart below), TMTA completed a nice 4-month W-bottom by printing 1.00. That put 1.37 IN PLAY, for a gain of 37%. Stop: 0.77, the last low, prior to the breakout. Risk: a loss of 23%.
Not quite a 1:2 risk:reward, but "good enough," and the chart looked nice.
Two days later, TMTA gapped up to 1.51, so it was a 51% gain if we sold it right there. The close was 1.35, just below the target of 1.37 IN PLAY.
After that, though, it went on a screamer to 2.50. :o
Before we move on to the current time-frame, note that the gap up out of the W-Bottom left a gap on the chart at 1.07. That comes into play in the current W-Bottom.
Thanks for the news alert. Applause.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 12, 2006, 04:22:15 AM
Before we move on to the current time-frame, note that the gap up out of the W-Bottom left a gap on the chart at 1.07. That comes into play in the current W-Bottom.
The Left and Right Legs of the current "possible" W-Bottom are
1.07 and 1.09, so that gap from August, 2005 has been filled. Gaps don't have to get filled, and sometimes it takes awhile if they do get filled, especially if they are in a sustained Bull Market (AAPL is a good example...several gaps from awhile back are not filled).
But, when a stock is in a Bear Market, like TMTA has been, you have to be thinking about the threat of that gap eventually getting filled, if you're thinking about getting long. It's filled now, so that threat is out of the way.
Another threat is that 0.92 still is IN PLAY from the July 13 Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Like gaps not always getting filled, targets don't always get MADE, but unless/until TMTA completes a Bullish pattern, which would be a print of 1.37 to take out the middle of the W-Bottom, 0.92 still is IN PLAY.
Gap Openings are problematic: Is it going to be a "Gap And Go," or is it going to be a "Gap To Crap," meaning that it gaps into the 1.30s, and then fizzles for the remainder of the day, back toward the gap?
Last August, when TMTA gapped up to 1.51, it wasn't a problem because we already would have been long the stock two days prior, when it printed 1.00, taking out the middle leg of the "W," at 0.99.
Curently, if we gap up even to 1.37 at the open, which would be a technical breakout of the W-Bottom, we'll be leaving an "empty" Right Leg, essentially (a big gap). That's possible, like a "No Right Shoulder" in a H&S pattern, but how strong does this chart look?
This W-Bottom is a 2-month base since the August 9 Symmetrical Triangle breakdown, and its not a completed pattern. The August, 2005 W-Bottom was a 4-month base, it it was a completed pattern, prior to the gap up opening.
If we gap up and print 1.37 this morning, a technical breakout, is there any nearby resistance? Yes. DOUBLE resistance at 1.47-1.49 from the upper trendline off the May-July, 2006 Symmetrical Triangle, and the 200DMA.
Where would we put our stop? 1.06. If we pay 1.37 for the breakout, the risk is a loss of 22.6% if we're stopped out. The anticipated gain if the 1.65 pattern target gets MADE would be only 20.4%. Not nearly good enough risk:reward.
Even if we get a "Gap And Go" to 1.65, or higher, I have to pass.
You see why I said Drat! at the beginning of my first post. :D
Thanks again for the alert, boatguy. I appreciate having notice so I can give a lot of thought to whether or not I want to take a trade.
EDIT: Sorry, I added wrong. The target would be 1.63, not 1.65
Looks like is isn't going to take-off after all.
Gap to Crap it is!
Thanks for the TA Melf. Applaud
Quote from: boatguy on October 12, 2006, 10:56:16 AM
Looks like is isn't going to take-off after all.
Gap to Crap it is!
boatguy,
Yeah, buyers of the 1.30 gap up opening probably are saying, "Aw, crap!" to the 1.27 close.
I wonder why they call it a "Gap To Crap?" ??? :D
What if this guys wins >:D
Transmeta Takes On Intel
Transmeta Corp. (TMTA)
Share price as of Wednesday's close: $1.12
Share price now: $1.27
Percent change: 13.4%
Volume: 14.5 million shares, daily average 1.4 million
The News
In a move that echoes David's challenge of Goliath, microprocessor maker Transmeta (TMTA: 1.27, +0.15, +13.4%) is taking the giant of its industry, Intel (INTC: 21.49, +0.60, +2.9%), to court.
Transmeta filed a lawsuit in the federal district court in Delaware that said Intel had violated 10 of its patents. Transmeta claims that Intel used its technology in its Pentium III, Pentium 4, Pentium M, Core and Core 2 products. Both companies are based in Santa Clara, Calif.
Those processors, says Transmeta, have accounted for more than $100 billion in revenue for Intel over the years, and Transmeta believes it has a right to claim some of that revenue in the form of royalties. The company is also seeking an injunction that would bar Intel from selling the microprocessors that allegedly infringe on Transmeta's patents.
Transmeta says that it tried to reach an amicable agreement with Intel before heading to the courts, but it didn't pan out. "After endeavoring to negotiate with Intel for fair compensation for the continued use of our intellectual property, we have concluded that we must turn to the judicial system to be fairly compensated for our inventions," said John O'Hara Horsely, Transmeta's general counsel, in a statement.
News of the legal action, which was released after the markets closed Wednesday, led Transmeta's shares 13% higher to $1.27 Thursday. For Intel's shares the lawsuit held no sway. The chip maker's stock closed nearly 3% higher.
The Analysis
Transmeta investors hoping for a big settlement payment from Intel should be ready for a long and costly legal battle.
"We're continuing to study the complaint. But after preliminary analysis, we dispute the claims of infringement and we plan to conduct a vigorous defense," says Intel spokesman Chuck Mulloy.
Transmeta is not only asking for an undisclosed amount of royalties that could reach into the billions of dollars, but it's also trying to stop Intel from selling some of its most popular and lucrative microprocessors. No company would take that lying down, and Intel, which reported $38.8 billion in revenue last year, has enough cash behind it to build its legal defense.
The case probably won't be heard before the court in Delaware for another 12 to 18 months. And if it goes to trial — a big if — it won't be until 2008.
"We suspect that if there is no settlement and the case does proceed through discovery to trial, Transmeta might incur meaningful legal costs in 2007 and 2008," wrote A.G. Edwards analyst David Wong in a research report Thursday.
Patent-infringement suits often trigger countersuits, adds Wong. That could make the whole affair even more complicated and costly, especially for a company that's having a hard time turning a profit. According to Thomson First Call, a consensus estimate of analysts expects Transmeta to report a loss of 10 cents a share in 2006 and a loss of eight cents in 2007.
Wong has a Sell rating on the stock, noting that the company is currently trading at 4.5 times his 2007 sales estimate of $51 million when it should be trading closer to three to four times revenue. The analyst also cited the company's projected losses and negative cash flows. (A.G. Edwards makes a market in Transmeta's shares.)
The Bottom Line
The lawsuit filed against Intel is part of a broader move by Transmeta to transition its business toward the licensing of its intellectual property and away from the selling of microprocessors. Thus far, the gambit has proven somewhat fruitful for the company.
In 2003, Transmeta recorded just $1 million of its $17.3 million in revenue from the licensing of its technology and services. Last year, $48.1 million of its $72.7 million in revenue came from licensing agreements. Among its client roster are tech heavyweights Sony (SNE: 39.05, +0.41, +1.1%), Microsoft (MSFT: 28.22, +0.68, +2.5%) and Toshiba.
But being in the intellectual-property business means sometimes things get sticky. "As a part of our business decision last year to increasingly focus on monetizing our IP through technology licensing, we understood that in some cases we might need to pursue enforcement through the courts," said Arthur L. Swift, Transmeta's president and chief executive, in a statement. The patent-infringement suit against Intel is the first such case.
In this instance, though, Transmeta might've underestimated just what it'll take to take down this giant
Quote from: njshiva on October 12, 2006, 11:48:07 PM
What if this guys wins >:D
njshiva,
I would imagine that the stock would go up quite a bit, but it sounds like no easy task from the interesting article that you presented. Applause.
Quote
Transmeta Corp. (TMTA)
Share price as of Wednesday's close: $1.12
Share price now: $1.27
Percent change: 13.4%
Volume: 14.5 million shares, daily average 1.4 million
That's a nice percentage gain, but the market is very fickle, as we know. Players buy the momo on news, then interest tends to wane fairly quickly, unless it's news that is a bit more tangible than this is.
Quote
Those processors, says Transmeta, have accounted for more than $100 billion in revenue for Intel over the years, and Transmeta believes it has a right to claim some of that revenue in the form of royalties. The company is also seeking an injunction that would bar Intel from selling the microprocessors that allegedly infringe on Transmeta's patents.
That certainly was enough to whet one's appetite! But...
Quote
For Intel's shares the lawsuit held no sway. The chip maker's stock closed nearly 3% higher.
INTC shareholders didn't take it as a serious threat. INTC made a new high for the move, out of a THIRD pattern breakout.
Quote
Transmeta investors hoping for a big settlement payment from Intel should be ready for a long and costly legal battle.
Wall Street isn't long-suited in patience, particularly with stocks in this price range. Players tend to want to a lot of momo, and big, quick percentange gains.
Quote
"We're continuing to study the complaint. But after preliminary analysis, we dispute the claims of infringement and we plan to conduct a vigorous defense," says Intel spokesman Chuck Mulloy.
And, Goliath has the big bucks, with which to do that. :D
Quote
The case probably won't be heard before the court in Delaware for another 12 to 18 months. And if it goes to trial — a big if — it won't be until 2008.
UGH...That's a "Waiting For Godot," and traders
hate waiting. Just ask those of us who have played stocks like DNDN. :D
Quote
"We suspect that if there is no settlement and the case does proceed through discovery to trial, Transmeta might incur meaningful legal costs in 2007 and 2008," wrote A.G. Edwards analyst David Wong in a research report Thursday.
And, what if this guy loses? >:D
Quote
Patent-infringement suits often trigger countersuits, adds Wong.
UGH...
Quote
That could make the whole affair even more complicated and costly
UGH...
Quote
especially for a company that's having a hard time turning a profit.
UGH...
Quote
According to Thomson First Call, a consensus estimate of analysts expects Transmeta to report a loss of 10 cents a share in 2006 and a loss of eight cents in 2007.
UGH...
Quote
Wong has a Sell rating on the stock, noting that the company is currently trading at 4.5 times his 2007 sales estimate of $51 million when it should be trading closer to three to four times revenue. The analyst also cited the company's projected losses and negative cash flows. (A.G. Edwards makes a market in Transmeta's shares.)
UGH...
Quote
The Bottom Line
The lawsuit filed against Intel is part of a broader move by Transmeta to transition its business toward the licensing of its intellectual property and away from the selling of microprocessors. Thus far, the gambit has proven somewhat fruitful for the company.
Hmm-mm...I really don't like the sound of that.
Each of us has a read of articles like this, and frankly, each of us is taking our "best guess" at what it all means because if a company is in trouble, they never are going to scare shareholders to death by saying:
"We're totally screwed. INTC is the 500 lb. gorilla, and we're getting crushed. We estimate that we're going to lose 10 cents in 2007, and that we're going to lose eight cents in 2008, and we don't see that changing beyond 2008. It's constant blood-letting. We expect to continue to get crushed unless we can find some other way out of this horrible mess, but we'll have to soft peddle that to our shareholders as "transitioning our business" or they'll freak out on us, and crash our stock.
We are so short-stacked at the moment, that we have no other choice but to go ALL IN against INTC, and sue the lousy #%$&, or we aren't even going to be around to transition anything! Yes, it's going to be expensive to sue them, but we have nothing to lose. We're just about down for the count."
Are we ever going to read something like that? No. Could "some" version of that actually be the case? Anything's possible.
Quote
In this instance, though, Transmeta might've underestimated just what it'll take to take down this giant
Might've not. I'd guess that TMTA knows exactly what the risk is, but that they felt that they had no choice but to go ALL IN against INTC before they got put out of the game entirely. TMTA traded over $50 in November, 2000. It's now at $1.27. Something obviously has gone very wrong here.
All of the above is speculation and conjecture on my part, of course. Transitioning the business to the licensing of intellectual property could work out just fine.
Who knows? ??? ::)
Bottom line: I rely more on the chart anyway. If there's some kind of pattern and breakout, etc., I'll try to catch it and play it, regardless of what "the truth" is about the company's business prospects.
It will be fun to watch David vs. Goliath in the coming months. Thanks again for the interesting article, njshiva.
nice explanation Melf Elf :) applaude
Huge technical breakout across 50dma and a few resistance levels on 5m shares in 2 hours when average volume is only around 2m. If it can close above 1.29 today, tomorrow could be an interesting day.
chart:
looks good, needs to break 1.30....
hi ScottishTrader
This is one of my buy pick's on Wrangler's trading zone. I bought it last time it hit 1.30 hoping for the breakout then. Maybe this time it will be it,,notice how the last three times it fell back it made a higher support each time but didn't break thru the resistance that show's breakout will happen and it should be a good one when it does. The way the volume is coming in is a good sign ,,I'm hoping the close for the day will be at the high of the day if it does tomorrow should be a good day for the breakout.
Goodluck to all holding
1. Introduction
TMTA cut through my technical filter and since it was one of my picks in the past probably now is a good time to take a fresh new look at it.
2. Profile
Transmeta Corporation (TMTA) engages in the development and licensing of computing, microprocessor, and semiconductor technologies, and related intellectual property in the United States, Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan (complete profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=TMTA))
3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28476;image)
One really should be careful about buying IPO's in general, but especially after a big speculative bubble, is the lesson we can take out from this all history chart from TMTA.
3.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28477;image)
The stock opened an enormous gap in August 05, then it spent the next 13 months coming down to exactly close it on September the 7th, 2006. It seems to be building a base to push higher now ... perhaps it will move to close another huge gap, between $1.81 and $2.27.
3.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28478;image)
Yes, as ScottishTrader and wrangler say, $1.3 - $1.36 is a crucial short term resistance area. I like it when, derived from some positive news item, a stock makes a gap up but closes with a black candle, then it comes down to close the gap on low volume and then it challenges the highs again. Usually stocks indeed breakout after this behaviour.
4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28479;image)
After spending 6 years diluting shareholders value, I would say surprisingly, TMTA bought back some shares in 2006. This is a good sign.
Current market cap is 197,447,768*$1.27 = $250.8 M
4.2. Liquidity
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28480;image)
TMTA's balance sheet is healthy. Nice reduction in debt in 2006. Almost no debt now ...
4.3. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28481;image)
The company reduced its guidance for fiscal 2006 revenues:
«Full year revenue within a range of $48.0 to $54.0 million, versus prior guidance of $48.0 to $58.0 million»
So, revenues are expected to decline from 2005. The revenue multiple is 4.92. The industry's average is 2.38.
4.4. Profits
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28482;image)
The company gave this guidance for profits:
«Net loss of $22 million to $18 million, or a loss of $0.11 to $0.09 per share, compared to prior guidance of $26 to $16 million, which includes non-cash charges of $7 million of patent amortization and $6 million of stock option compensation expense»
EPS is expected to decline from ($0.03) to ($0.10), or, in net income terms, from ($6 M) to ($20 M).
5. General Overview
Although there's been some improvement on the share count and balance sheet, revenues are expected to decline and losses to grow in 2006 when compared to 2005. The price to sales ratio is quite rich, for a company that is still losing money.
I think TMTA has a strong base around $1.07 and probably won't fall much below that, given that the company isn't printing anymore shares and the balance sheet is pretty strong. So we have a fundamental base for it not to go any lower. But I also don't expect all that much upside, because there's revenue and net income deterioration, and I don't see a catalyst for this to change soon.
If the company continues losing money, someday it will need to get back to the old practices of making private placements and issuing shares. Or else increase debt.
On any sign of profits TMTA may shoot higher, but I guess that scenario is already a bit priced in because of the high Price to Sales Ratio.
I see TMTA trading between a range of $1 to $1.50 until there's new relevant information, so with the stock at $1.27 my outlook is basically neutral.
I'm making 3 analysis a day on US traded stocks, as I look for opportunities for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. If you would like to receive my analysis on your mailbox and join the 3 Stocks on Fire Community, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
"TMTA" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;D
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock. :( ::)
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$ ;)
Note, and so many threads to merge.... ::)
Friday's closing chart.......
setravis, doing a great job merging threads! :D
You are the 3SOF moderator/coordinator/traffic controller so we can all make money stock trading! ;D
=applaud= =applaud= =applaud= =applaud= =applaud=
As to TMTA, share price has experienced a long and painful fall from $2.23 in May of 2006 to $0.30 in June of 2007 ($38 in Nov 2000). It appears that since early 2007, TMTA has continue to fall with almost no sign of rebound.
Since June 6th, initial rebound has taken TMTA from $0.30 to $0.39.
If you look at TMTA RSI 2 chart, Friday RSI 2 hit 94 (previous RSI 2 peak of June 11 was 87) indicating short-term profit taking. Friday's gain was followed by light after hours gains (see TMTA day and AH charts).
I will be monitoring to see if rebound continues after the anticipated price correction to complete the "W" rebound pattern. If the rebound continues, I will be buying. If you are the gambling type, you can buy on the next dip. ;)
Next resistance set at $0.41.
Bought this morning at $0.39. ;)
Resistance of $0.41 broken within 30 minutes of market open.
Now, we move higher. ;)
Short-term, I believe TMTA will continue up until RSI 14 hits 70-90 range.
10 MA is continuing up with MACD confirmation.
With such a large gain today, anticipate some profit taking tomorrow - if you want to buy, then wait for any rebounding dip intraday as today's buying pressure volume of 7.3 million shares may continue tomorrow.
Next resistance $0.71.
With such a large drop in price the past year ($2.23 to $0.30), will anyone who bought at higher levels want to sell?
I am anticipating that news of today's rebounding gain of TMTA will continue to bring in buying pressure and any profit taking may be short-lived.
Also, updated after hours trading quotes.
Repost from Yahoo Finance MB thanks to hntraut:
Dead cat bounce or is there actually some good news?
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_T/threadview?m=me&bn=27380&tid=156122&mid=156122&tof=1&frt=2
Old Transmeta CEO Arthur Swift now working for Arrowhead Research Corp.
http://www.predictwallstreet.com/news/default.aspx?storyID=48898381&symbol=TMTA
"June 18, 2007 (financialwire.net via COMTEX News Network) -- June 18, 2007 (FinancialWire) Arrowhead Research Corp. (NASDAQ: ARWR) has appointed Arthurt L. Swift as chief executive officer and president of its majority-owned subsidiary, Unidym Inc. Unidym, which recently merged with Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc., possesses a foundational patent portfolio that covers nearly every aspect of carbon nanotube manufacturing and processing.
Swift comes to Unidym from Transmeta Corp. (NASDAQ: TMTA), a semiconductor company in the Silicon Valley, where he most recently held the position of president and CEO. Prior to his promotion to CEO, he was senior vice president of marketing. At Transmeta, Swift was instrumental in transforming the company's strategy from selling semiconductor chips to developing and licensing intellectual property, a change that nearly doubled Transmeta's revenue in the first two years after the strategy shift."
Wow, over a million shares within 10 minutes of market open. ;D :o
This buying pressure will continue to push the price up even higher.
What a day of trading!
With 11 million shares traded, share price was pushed up to $0.61 before profit taking. As anticipated, RSI 2 hit above 90 signalling short-term SELL with RSI 14 hitting 70.
Recent gains were very large, and many wanting to lock in profits and the news of old CEO Arthur Swift now working for Arrowhead Research Corp. may have contributed to large intraday fluctuations. After hours trading is very light.
http://www.predictwallstreet.com/news/default.aspx?storyID=48898381&symbol=TMTA
Next resistance set at $0.69.
If you check VWPT's recent rebound with 3 jumping gains, they were followed by short periods of profit taking before resuming gains.
I believe TMTA will go through similar cycles of large gains and profit taking as 10MA approaches and crosses 50MA.
And if the gains continue, TMTA will also approach the "GOLDEN CROSS" VWPT is about to experience where 50 MA crosses above 200 MA, a very significant trend indicator.
Tuesday's large drop may be due to the issue of Transmeta considering reverse-splitting if Nasdaq listing requirement of keeping share price above $1.00 is not met by September 17, 2007.
This issue certainly is a concern for many. But as we have seen with Viewpoint, which met the $1.00 listing requirements recently, Transmeta has until September to bring share price back up to $1.00. Which for us traders may possibly mean that Transmeta will do a lot to raise the share price above $1.00 (How much will the company do? We'll have to wait and see).
This was a speculative gamble that paid off for Viewpoint traders. Now the question is will it pay off for Transmeta traders?
If Transmeta is successful in meeting the Nasdaq listing requirements, it would translate to 100% gain for current stock holders. If not, Transmeta will perform reverse split to raise the share price above $1.00.
I am the gambling type and inclined to take a chance on TMTA, but you make your own decision whether to keep TMTA or not in your portfolio. ;)
Repost from Yahoo Finance MB thanks to antowanj35:
Transmeta files SCHEDULE 14A on June 19, 2007
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_sec.asp?symbol=TMTA&selected=TMTA&page=filings
Also repost from Yahoo Finance MB thanks to tmta_revival about forbes article that talk about pros and cons of reverse splits:
http://www.forbes.com/2002/01/25/0125simons_print.html
"... Of the reverse splits, 84 are still trading that split when their shares were near or below Nasdaq's $1 minimum. (Six were acquired, four went out of business and six split to facilitate such transactions as spinoffs and special dividends.) Contrary to the popular perception, nearly three-quarters have maintained a post-split price above $1.
Of course, merely staying listed isn't investment opportunity. On a pre-split basis, the average price has barely budged from 52 cents. But 39 of the stocks have risen since their reverse splits--up an average 66%, with all but nine of those up at least 20%. (The 45 losers are down 84% on average, but half remain above the listing cutoff).
No clear pattern separates the winners and losers--not even market timing.
... As the examples accompanying the table describe, the opportunity was in ignoring the reverse-split stigma and focusing on each situation individually. Still, playing reverse splits is risky speculation, not investment. Most of the price-performance winners are small companies that haven't established business track records beyond recent reversals of fortune, and now also bear an albatross of per-share losses being amplified due to split-reduced share count.
10 MA continuing to rise and MACD in positive territory, indicating upward momentum.
After recent large gains, short-term profit taking as indicated by RSI 2.
10 MA about to cross 50 MA with RSI flat and MACD in positive territory.
Anticipate continued gains.
10 MA crossing through 50 MA with HUGE (22.2 million shares!!!) volume increase.
Anticipate continued gain.
TMTA has failed to meet NASDAQ Global Market continued listing requirement(s).
• Transmeta To Hold Annual Meeting of Stockholders on July 31, 2007
Bouncing off a 50% Fibonacci retracement.
52wk Range: 0.28 - 1.41
Volume: 2,797,024
Avg Vol (3m): 3,442,520
Technicals
RS Rating: 96
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $131.96
P/E Ratio: 17.08
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 08/07/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Strong Buy
Up 230%. Check it out;
8:03AM Transmeta announces settlement of patent litigation, technology transfer and license agreement with Intel (TMTA) 4.18 : Co announces that it has reached an agreement with Intel to settle all claims between them and to license the TMTA patent portfolio to Intel (INTC) for use in current and future Intel products. The agreement will grant INTC a perpetual non-exclusive license to all TMTA patents and patent applications, including any patent rights later acquired by TMTA, now existing or as may be filed during the next ten years. TMTA will also transfer technology and grant to Intel a non-exclusive license to TMTA's LongRun and LongRun2 technologies and future improvements. Under the agreement, INTC will covenant not to sue TMTA for the development and licensing to third parties of TMTA's LongRun and LongRun2 technologies. The agreement provides for Intel to make an initial $150 mln payment to TMTA as well as to pay TMTA an annual license fee of $20 mln for each of the next five years. The agreement also provides for the parties to dismiss their pending patent litigation with prejudice and for a mutual general release of all claims of any type between the parties.
Up 230%. Check it out;
8:03AM Transmeta announces settlement of patent litigation, technology transfer and license agreement with Intel (TMTA) 4.18 : Co announces that it has reached an agreement with Intel to settle all claims between them and to license the TMTA patent portfolio to Intel (INTC) for use in current and future Intel products. The agreement will grant INTC a perpetual non-exclusive license to all TMTA patents and patent applications, including any patent rights later acquired by TMTA, now existing or as may be filed during the next ten years. TMTA will also transfer technology and grant to Intel a non-exclusive license to TMTA's LongRun and LongRun2 technologies and future improvements. Under the agreement, INTC will covenant not to sue TMTA for the development and licensing to third parties of TMTA's LongRun and LongRun2 technologies. The agreement provides for Intel to make an initial $150 mln payment to TMTA as well as to pay TMTA an annual license fee of $20 mln for each of the next five years. The agreement also provides for the parties to dismiss their pending patent litigation with prejudice and for a mutual general release of all claims of any type between the parties.
TMTA looks great, just got a pop...hoping to see $20 soon on it
(TMTA)
$250M Settlement Causes Huge Spike in Transmeta Shares.......
Wednesday's session saw the financials feed the bear following
Merrill Lynch's larger than expected losses. Online retailer, Amazon.
com, also contributed to the downward move following an
earnings report that beat estimates, though fell due to expected
profit margins declining with the holiday season right around the corner.
Even further, the National Association of Realtors reported sales of existing homes fell 8% in September to their lowest levels in 8 years.
Median sales prices also fell 4.2%. Following the intraday
bounce off lows of over 200 points, the Dow closed almost even, while the Nasdaq was down
almost 1%. Speculation suggested an emergency Fed meeting as the catalyst, though the rumors were quickly dismissed.
In the small cap space, one name saw a fairly large increase in price on an important piece of
news.
Transmeta Corporation (TMTA) develops and licenses innovative computing, microprocessor and
semiconductor technologies and related intellectual property. Founded in 1995, Transmeta first
became known for designing, developing and selling its highly efficient x86-compatible softwarebased microprocessors, which deliver a balance of low power consumption, high performance, low cost and small size suited for diverse computing platforms.
The Company also develops advanced power management technologies for controlling leakage and increasing power efficiency in semiconductor and computing devices.
In October of 2006, the Company filed a patent infringement suit against Intel for infringement upon 10 Transmeta U.S. patents covering computer architecture and power efficiency technologies.
The complaint charged that Intel had infringed Transmeta's patents by making and selling a variety of microprocessor products including at least Intel's Pentium III, Pentium 4, Pentium M, Core and Core 2 product lines. The complaint requested an injunction against Intel's continuing sales of infringing products as well as monetary damages, including reasonable royalties on infringed products, treble damages and attorney's fees.
In January, Intel countersued and disputed Transmeta's charges while accusing the smaller rival of infringing seven Intel patents. One of Intel's patents, filed in 1998, covers an "apparatus for controlling power usage," while the remaining six cover kinds of chip features.
In May, the Company reported some disappointing earnings and announced a restructuring was to take place.
"In the first quarter of 2007 we made the difficult, but necessary, decision to reduce our spending by restructuring the company to focus on developing and licensing our technologies and intellectual property," said Les Crudele, president and CEO in the Company's first quarter earnings release.
"The restructuring is proceeding according to plan and, in some cases, is ahead of schedule. We expect to further reduce our headcount by 15 to 20 percent during the second quarter, mainly affecting general and administrative positions. As a result of the restructuring, we are no longer pursuing engineering services as a separate line of business and have also exited the business of selling microprocessor products."
On Wednesday, the Company made a large stride towards their licensing and development strategy.
Trasmeta announced that it had reached an agreement with Intel to settle all claims between them and to license the Transmeta patent portfolio to Intel for use in current and future Intel products.
The agreement grants Intel a perpetual non-exclusive license to all Transmeta patents and patent applications, including any patent rights later acquired by Transmeta, now existing or as may be filed during the next ten years. Transmeta will also transfer technology and grant to Intel a non-exclusive license to Transmeta's LongRun and LongRun2 technologies and future improvements.
The agreement provides for Intel to make an initial $150 million payment to Transmeta as well as to pay Transmeta an annual license fee of $20 million for each of the next five years for a total of $250 million.
Following the announcement, shares of TMTA gained over 230%, INTC shares fell 3.5%, while Applied Micro Devices (AMD), who owns $7.5 million in preferred stock in TMTA, shares fell 4.37%.
Transmeta Moves Past Litigation with
Intel.......
To Consider Sale To Activist Investor
Trading on Transmeta Corporation (TMTA) was up +3.715% after the
company reported the formal dismissal of a patent litigation in which
Intel made an initial $150M payment. Transmeta's lawsuit was orginally
announced in October 2006. The complaint charged that Intel had
infringed upon Transmeta's patents by making and selling a variety
of microprocessor products including Intel's Pentium III, Pentium 4,
Pentium M, Core and Core 2 product lines. The complaint requested
an injunction against Intel's continuing sales of infringing products as
well as monetary damages, including reasonable royalties on infringing
products, treble damages and attorneys' fees. On the same day,
Transmeta received a letter from Riley Investments expressing interest
to acquire all of the company's outstanding shares for $15.50 in cash.
The bid is higher than today's opening bid of 13.59000, though lower
than the 52 week high of 15.70000. As an activist investor, Riley has
been known for an aggressively strategy, as it recently filed a 13D over
a proposed merger proposition on January 18, 2008 between Zilog and
Universal Electronics, which it tried to forge at $4.50 a share. While
Zilog's decision based on due diligence is pending, Riley Investment
previously ran into trouble with the 7% owned Regent Communications
Inc, as it became involved in an August lawsuit in connection with a solicitation
of requests from Regent shareholders to call a special meeting
to amend Regent's bylaws, and to add four new directors to Regent's
board, nominated by Riley. Transmeta also announced today that it will
consider Riley's offer.
SAN JOSE, Calif., Jan 28, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Novafora, Inc., a developer of video processors, today announced that it has completed its acquisition of Transmeta Corporation (formerly listed as NASDAQ: TMTA). The acquisition - which was formally announced on November 17, 2008 - was finalized upon approval by Transmeta shareholders.
"With the completion of our acquisition of Transmeta, we are now focusing on putting its innovative technology to work," said Zaki Rakib, CEO of Novafora. "The addition of Transmeta's power management technology to our video processor will enable us to target Novafora's products to the broadest range of video-oriented devices."
Since its founding in 1995, Transmeta has been recognized for its innovative computing, microprocessor and semiconductor technologies, and in particular, its initial line of x86-compatible software-based microprocessors. In recent years the company's business model has increasingly focused on licensing its technologies and related intellectual property.
About Novafora
Novafora is a video processor company enabling OEMs to deliver on the promise of the digital video revolution - the highest quality video, anywhere, on any display device and at any time. Novafora was founded in 2004 by a group of successful entrepreneurs and video experts and is backed by leading venture capital firms. More information on the company can be found on its website www.novafora.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements concerning Novafora, including, among other things, the ability to advance the company's vision of making its products applicable across the broadest range of video-oriented devices. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements in this press release are made based on management's current expectations and estimates, which involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. These statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, the ability to incorporate the Transmeta technology into Novafora's products, the ability of Novafora to fulfill the promise of the digital video revolution and other risk factors. Novafora does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements made herein, and such forward-looking statements speak only as of the day hereof.
SOURCE: Novafora, Inc.
Media Contact:
Mobility Public Relations
John Sidline, 503-946-3311
[email protected] or
Business Contact:
Novafora
Vice President of Marketing
Dushyant Desai, 408-582-5300
[email protected] Copyright Business Wire 2009
SAN JOSE, Calif., Jan 28, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Novafora, Inc., a developer of video processors, today announced that it has completed its acquisition of Transmeta Corporation (formerly listed as NASDAQ: TMTA). The acquisition - which was formally announced on November 17, 2008 - was finalized upon approval by Transmeta shareholders.
"With the completion of our acquisition of Transmeta, we are now focusing on putting its innovative technology to work," said Zaki Rakib, CEO of Novafora. "The addition of Transmeta's power management technology to our video processor will enable us to target Novafora's products to the broadest range of video-oriented devices."
Since its founding in 1995, Transmeta has been recognized for its innovative computing, microprocessor and semiconductor technologies, and in particular, its initial line of x86-compatible software-based microprocessors. In recent years the company's business model has increasingly focused on licensing its technologies and related intellectual property.
About Novafora
Novafora is a video processor company enabling OEMs to deliver on the promise of the digital video revolution - the highest quality video, anywhere, on any display device and at any time. Novafora was founded in 2004 by a group of successful entrepreneurs and video experts and is backed by leading venture capital firms. More information on the company can be found on its website www.novafora.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements concerning Novafora, including, among other things, the ability to advance the company's vision of making its products applicable across the broadest range of video-oriented devices. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements in this press release are made based on management's current expectations and estimates, which involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. These statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, the ability to incorporate the Transmeta technology into Novafora's products, the ability of Novafora to fulfill the promise of the digital video revolution and other risk factors. Novafora does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements made herein, and such forward-looking statements speak only as of the day hereof.
SOURCE: Novafora, Inc.
Media Contact:
Mobility Public Relations
John Sidline, 503-946-3311
[email protected] or
Business Contact:
Novafora
Vice President of Marketing
Dushyant Desai, 408-582-5300
[email protected] Copyright Business Wire 2009