Forward Industries, Inc.(FORD). The Group's principal activity is to design, manufacture and market customized soft-sided carrying cases made from leather, nylon, vinyl and other synthetic fabrics.
A stock is never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=246;image)
An ascending triangle formation gives a technical price target of $23.6. Buying the open on FORD.
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FORD
FORD is losing momentum. Lock in 7% profit and move on.
FORD sent out a very clear buying signal today I belive. Bouncing of the ascending trendline and the MA (50) and forming a Doji that would imply that this is the turning point from short term bearish trend. And FORD is also looking great fundamentally. Any comments?
1. Yes it is doji. Need confirmation for bullish reversal;
2. 61.8% retracement from $29 high is at $21.
3. previous high (support) is at $22.50. So it is at support.
4. It started short term down trend 16 days ago. Last short term down trend lasted 18 days.
5. KD(18,5) 32, not in oversold area.
May wait for two more days to take a position. That is my opinion.
Ford is running. We could be looking at a major short squeeze. More then 40% of float is short.
Ford is looking very bullish even without all the shorts (major short squeeze coming). Today it broke resistance in the 25 area and closed at the top of the day.
Anyone have an idea of a price target?
Hi,
Clear to me that the target is at least $35 That's what the chart shows & its a high-probability trade. In case I'm wrong, place a sell stop inder $22, or so.
happy trading & good fortune to U
Willie
ford is hitting it's 200 dma.Buying opportunity
Profile: Forward Industries, Inc. (FORD). The Group's principal activity is to design, manufacture and market customized soft-sided carrying cases made from leather, nylon, vinyl and other synthetic fabrics. The products are utilized for transporting portable electronic products such as cellular telephones, medical instruments and computers. The Group operates through its wholly owned subsidiary, Koszegi Industries Inc. The Group markets its products to original equipment manufacturers, principally in the communications, medical and testing and measurement equipment industries. Substantially all of the Group's products are manufactured in China. In 2004, the Group acquired Abbot Laboratories. Major customers of the Group for fiscal 2004 are Motorola, Inc, Nokia Corp and Abbott laboratories. Three largest customers of the Group are Motorola, Inc, Lifescan and Abbott.
Technical Analysis:
Long Term Chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11735;image)
We can see on the all history chart that FORD spent 8 years building a base for a huge run up in 2005. Also there's a long term support at $13.50, which was the previous all time high for the stock.
Medium Term Chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11736;image)
The stock was in a strong upward trend from January until October. In October FORD broke down its ascending trendline, turning bearish. Then made a classic throwback to the broken trendline, the retest was successful and a fall to new lows began.
The medium term chart is bearish at this point.
Short Term Chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11737;image)
Three important things to note on this chart:
1) There was a big gap down ($23.06-$21.97) on the 18th of November. That gap down was due to this: «Mr. Ball continued, "Our levels of quarterly sales and net income are highly variable and subject to significant changes over short periods of time. With regard to the first quarter of fiscal 2006, based on current confirmed and anticipated orders and consistent with this high level of variability, we expect sales to be higher than the first quarter of fiscal 2005, driven primarily by the three "in-box" programs, but will not approach the exceptional level of sales achieved in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005. While we anticipate that we will receive additional "in-box" business, it is difficult for us to assess the timing and contribution of such business to our future results at this time."»
Remember the stock was already bearish prior to this earnings release.
2) There was an important support area at $16.60-$16.75. It was broken on the downside, so now it is a resistance area.
3) The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is standing at $14.30 and it is the ultimate support for the long term trend to remain bullish. If FORD decisively breaks $14.30, let's say if it closes below $13.50 (the previous all time high on the long term chart), there's no possible technical defense to the stock's bull case.
Making the technical approach that the stock is still in a long term bull trend, but on a short and medium term decline phase, we could make the case that a buy order at $14.30 is sensible, if it has attached a stop order on a close below $13.50. That's about a 7% risk.
Fundamental Analysis:
Revenues:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11741;image)
It's amazing how the revenue chart could almost fit the stock chart. Revenues were pretty stable on low levels until 2005 when they started to grow a lot, as the stock price. Obviously there was a pretty strong fundamental shift in 2005 for this company. The question now is:
Was this fundamental «upgrade» a long term issue or a temporary one? What happened?
1) The company changed its focus from cases for medical kits to cases for cellular handsets:
«OEM Product Sales. In the three fiscal years ended September 30, 2005, 2004, and 2003, OEM products sales for cellular phone handsets accounted for 67%, 34%, and 30%, respectively, of our total net sales, and OEM product sales for blood glucose monitors accounted for approximately 23%, 43%, and 50%, respectively, of our total net sales. In the three fiscal years ended September 30, 2005, 2004, and 2003, approximately 7%, 11%, and 8%, respectively, of total net sales represented sales of carrying cases for products other than blood glucose monitoring kits or cellular phone handsets: these include custom cases for cameras, portable oxygen tanks, bar code scanners, MP3 players and other consumer electronic devices»
2) The company increased its relationship with Motorola, Sagem and Nokia. Basically now the company sells its products not to the end costumer, but as an «in-box» solution for major firms. Example: you buy a Motorola mobile phone and in the box, say as a gift, you get a FORD case for your mobile phone. FORD outsources production in China and sells each case for prices ranging from $0.60 to $8:
«We have two channels of distribution for our products: first, direct to our OEM customers, which package our carry solutions products in box with their products, although increasingly, we may ship directly to the OEM customer's contract manufacturer, which similarly packages our products in box. The second distribution channel for our products is under our license agreements, as separately packaged carry solution accessories bearing our licensor's trademarks to distributors and retailers for sale in the aftermarket. In the three fiscal years ended September 30, 2005, 2004 and 2003, approximately 97%, 89%, and 88%, respectively, of our net sales were made to OEM customers (or their contract manufacturers), and sales of licensed products designed and developed by us under license accounted for approximately 3%, 11%, and 12%, respectively, of total net sales.»
These two trends seem to be here to stay. The company now won't go away from the mobile handset market and their relationship with Motorola (56% of sales in 2005, 25% in 2004) has strengthen in 2005:
«Motorola License. Effective October 1, 2004, we entered into a new license agreement with Motorola pursuant to which we are granted the non-exclusive right to sell cellular telephone handset carry cases and other carry solutions bearing Motorola trademarks in the EMEA Region. The license permits us to sell and distribute such licensed products based on our proprietary designs or Motorola designs directly to third party distributors, including wholesalers and retailers in the EMEA Region. This license agreement, which expires on December 31, 2007, unless earlier terminated in accordance with its terms, modifies and continues the arrangements to sell licensed products bearing Motorola trademarks in the EMEA Region under the initial license agreement that we entered into with Motorola effective January 2001 and which expired September 30, 2004. In July 2005 the current license was amended to expand the licensed territory to include the APAC Region in consideration of payment of additional royalties on actual sales in that territory.»
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11745;image)
Earnings per share are steadily growing since 2001 and 2005 was a blockbuster year. With EPS of $1.26 the company now has a trailing P/E of 12.
Revenue growth in 2005 was 155%, EPS growth was 320%, yet, the earnings multiple is just 12.
General Overview:
Everything seems to be fine from a fundamental standpoint with FORD. But, CEO's words are putting pressure on shares. Let's read again what he said:
«With regard to the first quarter of fiscal 2006, based on current confirmed and anticipated orders and consistent with this high level of variability, we expect sales to be higher than the first quarter of fiscal 2005, driven primarily by the three "in-box" programs, but will not approach the exceptional level of sales achieved in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005.»
He said the three «in-box» programs in play will continue but the company won't approach last quarters revenue. On the revenue chart above we can see that there was a big jump in revenues on the 3rd quarter (fiscal 4th quarter), from $13M to $18M, or $5M more. On the previous 2 quarters the average increase was of $2.5M, so on the last quarter revenue growth doubled in dollar terms. I think a bit of a setback was to be expected after such a strong quarter.
The CEO also said revenues will be higher than the first quarter of fiscal 2005, which were $5M. This is the worst case scenario, $5M in revenues. The best case scenario is $18M.
That's a big difference and that probably explains why investors are nervous and dumping shares. I think they're looking and discounting the worst case scenario, but considering that fundamental shifts within the company are more or less permanent, I don't see it going back to 2004 revenue levels.
Unless there's something going on behind the scenes that nobody knows (unless you're an insider), the stock seems to be cheap at this point (I'll make a comparison with the industry on next updates, in the meantime if you please check it here: Ford competitors (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=FORD)).
The potential for future growth and stock price appreciation is awesome. If the quarter isn't all that bad, say, with $14M in revenues, and then they start rising again after a perfectly natural pullback, FORD is a stock that can go up much beyond $30, it can even hit $100 or more if current long term fundamental trends continue.
Trading Plan:
I know the trend is bearish and a major technical sell signal was made yesterday. Volume is starting to increase, so buyers are feeling attracted by the lower prices. I will also feel attracted by the lower prices and will try to buy around the $14.30 support level we talked about on technical analysis.
This trade presents only about a 7% risk and unlimited profit potential. The stock has to be down more than 5% today for me to buy it. It's possible. If not today I'll buy it tomorrow or next week, probably this price will be reached as the stock builds a base for, I expect, future appreciation.
Here are the Fibonacci points and possible support
(http://xs59.xs.to/pics/05504/ford151205.jpg)
As planned, I bought FORD around $14.30.
The stop level is a close below $13.50.
Wish me luck :)
Good luck -- did not see that you also has some Fibos on the charts....
Quote from: metro on December 15, 2005, 10:16:31 AM
Good luck -- did not see that you also has some Fibos on the charts....
Thanks metro :) I understand the way you put your «Fibos», but since the big move started on that breakout, not before, I decided it was wise to start the «Fibos» on the breakout level.
Also, the way I put it, we can see there was some support at the 50%.
Guess I was a bit afraid of getting too greedy on the downside, since fundamentals seem to be so attractive. I'm in now, so I just have to manage my position. Around $14.30 seems to be providing some support today, and there was a gap down at the open, which bodes well for a recovery.
If we get a white candle or something (perhaps that's too much ambition) maybe people will look at FORD's fundamentals and get to the same conclusion I did.
We'll see ...
BUYINS.NET: FORD, GNLB, HBX, RICK, TASRE, PWHTE have been on BUYINS.NET naked short list for 13 consecutive trading days
10:30 a.m. 12/13/2005 Provided by
Dec 13, 2005 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- BUYINS.NET, www.buyins.net, announced today that these select companies have been on the NASDAQ, AMEX and NYSE naked short threshold lists for 13 consecutive trading days: Forward Industries (FORD), Genelabs Technologies (GNLB), Hana Biosciences (HBX), Ricks Cabaret International (RICK), Taser International (TASRE) and Powerhouse Technologies Group (PWHTE) . For a complete list of companies on the naked short lists please visit our web site. To find the SqueezeTrigger Price before a short squeeze starts in any stock, go to www.buyins.net/squeezetrigger.pdf .
Regulation SHO took effect January 3, 2005, and provides a new regulatory framework governing short selling of securities. It was designed with the objective of simplifying and modernizing short sale regulation and providing controls where they are most needed. At the conclusion of each settlement day, data is provided on securities in which: 1) there are at least 10,000 shares in aggregate failed deliveries for the security for five consecutive settlement days, and 2) these failures constitute at least 0.5% of the issuer's total shares outstanding. Regulation SHO mandates that, if a clearing agent has had a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, that clearing agent, and the broker/dealer it clears for, must purchase securities to close out its fail to deliver position.
Short interest 37% of float. Is this a concern? (positive?)
QuoteShort interest 37% of float. Is this a concern? (positive?)
One thing one needs to know about shorting is that sooner or later those shorts need to be covered. If we take the hypothetical and limit example of a stock that has 100% short interest, that stock can only go one way: up ! Nobody else can sell it, only buy.
When I was writing this article about FORD I thought if there were many technical players short of it, but forgot to check the information. You tell me there are many shorts, and that's a positive. Shorts will fuel any rally further and faster than it would if there was no short interest.
Thanks :)
David:
I am in with you this morning on the price break. Entered at 14.33. Thankyou for the terrific analysis, as always. The stock price support looks reasonable after one hour of trading and for certain the sell pressure has come to an end with this .70 cent downdraft. At least for the time being. The post by Twinpeaks is of interest of course, naked shorts working against any rallly may be the true cause for this sustained price decline. Good news release or these current technical support levels are going to be important to turn shorts into short covering buy pressure. Best of luck to both of us!
Looks DAVID is going to catch falling knife this time.
Yes, FIB number indicates $14.20 is 61.8% retracement. But I prefer to wait until candlestick gives a buying signal on daily chart before taking a position like I did on CHKP.
CHKP gave buying signal two days ago.
Will wait to see whether $14.00 is the strong support area.
Market hate uncertainty and that is why FORD crashed.
I prefer to bottom fishing stocks which has built a strong support base.
Examples are CHKP, TTWO, SGTL, ... I have all the three stocks and traded them often.
Thanks for pointing this one out - went down to support and back up like it should - good call
http://tinyurl.com/dm4rb
Te CEO Exercised 25k worht of options today at 3.25
3SOF
My previous post included this sentence.
"Good news release or these current technical support levels are going to be important to turn shorts into short covering buy pressure."
That good news apparently is not from the company but from another source of power........... the collective power of David Randolph calling a bottom.
Lets rock!!
Thanks David.
David is right on this stock.
I finally bought it at $15.45. Many big buyers put 10k's on the buy side.
Daily chart candlestick bullish signal is given and fib number also matches.
Also short squeezing for this stock. Expect to have a mini bull run.
Quote from: shawFund on December 15, 2005, 03:35:54 PM
David is right on this stock.
I finally bought it at $15.45. Many big buyers put 10k's on the buy side.
Daily chart candlestick bullish signal is given and fib number also matches.
Also short squeezing for this stock. Expect to have a mini bull run.
Hi shawFund,
What do you mean "
mini bull run"? No more than $16.75...$17.00? ???
I also bought today at $14.21.
Thanks David :)
Wow :) applaud
Unfortunately I've missed that one - I've been having problems with my connection lately. It's so frustrating............. >:(
I agree with you there is a very good potential on the upside but do you think tomorrow will be a good idea to enter or wait for a pullback ?
Thanks
Yes, I also am wondering where the target price is because I got in at 16.30..
congratulations again!!
awesome picks but unfortunately no money left for new investings :'(
The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern . This is a bullish reversal pattern that marks a potential change in trend. However, its reliability is not very high and it requires confirmation.
So when we get a gap up in the morning the required confirmation will be in place. :o
$18.77 is the 200 dma ;D
$19.67 is the 50 dma ;D ;D
(http://mdteague.com/bowdown.gif) David, Great call on this one!
I did not have the stones to play this one today.
Quote from: Jimbo on December 15, 2005, 04:22:19 PM
Wow :) applaud
Unfortunately I've missed that one - I've been having problems with my connection lately. It's so frustrating............. >:(
I agree with you there is a very good potential on the upside but do you think tomorrow will be a good idea to enter or wait for a pullback ?
Thanks
I think tomorrow still a good entry point Jimbo, the action today was only an appetizer ;)
David, good jod for the FORD Due Diligence (applaud) ;)
Thanks for your comments :)
Oh God, what a technical trap this is setting up to be. I bet those 37% of outstanding shares short are held by nervous people at this point.
As someone said this is an engulfing candlestick pattern. We had a support at the $16.60-$16.75 area, now that's a resistance zone. The stock will open at that resistance level and may pullback some of yesterday's gains.
But it can also make a runaway gap from this resistance level.
Fundamentally speaking I believe the market has discounted the worst case scenario for the 4th quarter on FORD. Now seems to be the time to discount a more favorable outcome. I would say this would be done if the stock were to hit the descending trendline or close the gap on the chart below.
Longer term I believe FORD has the fundamental strength to go beyond its all-time high of $29.85, but I'm also curious about the 4th quarter.
I'll continue holding FORD.
Today it went right up to the 50% retrace resistance at 16.85 and pulled back about 5%C so got back in at 15.60 as seems trend may have changed. Weekly chart not yet up but the daily nice
Fibonacci lines are not always real targets as stocks can overshoot but the correct placement can help in getting closer to them when they do work
You want to place them at point of low and highs of major trend changes. You can pretty much see as once you place them you should see that they also followed other support resistance points.
I closed my position at open today - $16.82.
Reason: yesterday's close was at the high and that is why I did not close my position before yesterday's close as I normally do to avoid overnight risk.
I was expecting an opening gap today and it did so.
So I put a market sell order once the market opened today.
For me, I am satisfied with the gain made in 2 hours.
Will continue watching it and taking positions if things look good.
I have catched few big bullish runs lately: EGHT, SPEX, FORD, ELN, NMGC, ARM.
I found out that once the huge volumes together with price running up,
it is very hard to stop the trend.
Once I took position, I set up a mental stop-loss bar: 10 cents below my purchasing price.
For very bullish stocks, I see no corrections of more than 10 cents at all during the runs.
It may have some rest but not down during the run.
That is, my maximum risk is set to 10 cents.
And as long as the correction is less than 10 cents during the run, I just keep my position.
That is for very bullish stocks.
Have fun.
...maybe a lower volume down day on Monday, setting up a G-pattern, and then a gap fill?
Sounds great! Now let's see what happens.
I nibbled some at $15.85
I Cancelled my order for tomorrow...
I'm gonna wait when safer play for FORD shows up
If i see EMA rises and prices close above it.. then i'll jump in ;)
goodluck for those who hold!! ;)
Moving averages serve as support and resistance zones. A rising MA tends to serve as a floor below prices, and a falling MA serves as a ceiling above them. That's why it pays to buy near a rising MA, and sell short near a falling MA.
(Trading for a Living)
Well, I was a bit lucky when I puschased FORD at $14.35, because just after that the President and COO of the company exercised options to buy 25,000 FORD shares at $3.25.
This may mean nothing, since the current stock price is much higher than this and the insider could just sell the 25,000 now for an handsome profit.
But, probably he won't do that, usually they hold shares for a minimum period of 6 months. This may be a sign that the 4th quarter is going well, that is, it may be closer to the last quarter numbers (revenues of $18M, EPS of $0.44) than the year ago numbers (revenues of $8M, EPS of $0.21).
I think the market has discounted the worst case scenario when the stock went down to $14, now it will discount the better case scenario going back up to fill the gap and touch the descending trendline, at around $23-$24.
If the 3rd quarter earnings were to hold for 4 consecutive quarters, on average, the company would then be trading at an earnings multiple of 9. It is too cheap, especially since the company and I expect strong growth for the future.
A close above $16.75 would put those shorts running for the exit and provide the fuel for a fill the gap rise. I believe that, after some fight, this will be the final outcome, so I'll continue holding FORD.
FORD is coming down after a failure to surpass the $16.60-$16.75 resistance zone. I still believe the company's numbers won't be as bad as most people are expecting, and the future is bright for this company selling at a trailing P/E of 12 coupled with strong growth.
I think FORD has the possibility of moving higher even though the general market may decline. Although it would be a pity to see a 15% profit turn into a loss, that's the cost of long term investing.
And long term investing, at least in some stocks, is a strategy that can't be beaten. I'll write more on this issue on an article for the «Strategic Orientation Board», probably tomorrow.
FORD is coming down on much lower volume than it did when it went up, and that's a positive.
FORD cannot pass the 9-EMA and is still in down trend. That is what I mean mini-bull.
AMD is very very bullish. Even semi sector is down, AMD continues its bull run and is only $1 away from my year-end target of $30.00.
I have been holding it for two years (only traded twice in two years span). One is the end of last year and bought it later (I predicted $25 target for last year and it reached a high of $24.95).
The next trade will be the end of this year once it is near the target.
I am expecting semi sector will have a mini rebound next few days. 483 is at a very strong suport.
I'm still expecting for FORD to provide a new white marubozu that crosses the $16.60-$16.75 resistance zone. Fundamentals tell me the stock is very attractive at this point, even though technicals are bearish (but they would turn bullish if there were to be a close above $16.75).
Let's see who wins, fundamental or technical traders. I hope fundamental traders win. I'll continue holding whatever happens, since I feel it is just a matter of time before the technical picture improves.
FORD is oversold, no doubt about it.
The institution dumped this stock at the hint of earning decline from FORD management.
I fully believe that all stocks are bad (That is the word from CEO of IBD) in nature. Always have doubts on any earning report.
Will do day trading on it. It seems that $14.50 is strong support.
By the way, bought back MESA, SWIR.
MESA has nice recovery in $8.25 and is about 20% from its recent low. If it tradd back to $12, that is almost 50% gain.
SWIR has about 10% gain so far from its low. If it goes back to $14, that is about 35% gain.
All bounced back from oversold. They are still in uptrend.
Will be looking into MPS (just bought it at $13.37), TRAD also.
David's picks GIVE US THE CANDADITES to trade good stocks but be very careful on any bad news, possible private placement, etc.
The chart looks like that break-down may happen. Lower highs.
What I am going to do?
From long term investment point of view, this stock is oversold and should go up from here.
Short term, prepare for break-down to wash out weak hands before the reversal.
FORD had 6 consecutive days of declines and I'm still in the green with it, although by a small margin.
It took 6 days for bears to make up nfor 1 day job from the bulls. Perhaps bulls will come to work another day and they will kill shorts, on a close above $16.75.
I'm convinced this last quarter of the year won't be as weak as people are expecting. If EPS comes in like in the second quarter, at $0.33 (instead of $0.44 like in the 4th quarter), the annualized earnings multiple would still be 11, which is quite cheap.
I'll continue holding FORD.
Halted trading! Lets see what the news brings.
uc.
The news are very bad :-[
«Forward Industries Updates First Quarter Guidance
Dec 23, 2005 9:44:00 AM
Copyright Business Wire 2005
POMPANO BEACH, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 23, 2005--
Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FORD), a designer and distributor of custom carrying case solutions, today updated its financial guidance for the first fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2005. The following statements are forward looking and actual results may differ materially. Please see the description of certain risk factors in this release and Forward's reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more complete description of risk factors.
First Fiscal Quarter Business Outlook
Based on the current business outlook, the Company now anticipates that its first fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2005 revenues will be $8.3 to $8.7 million. In its previous guidance issued November 17, 2005, the Company previously anticipated that such revenues would be higher than the $8.9 million recorded in the first fiscal quarter of last year. The Company attributed the shortfall to the timing of certain orders that it now expects to ship in its second fiscal quarter.
Based on the current outlook, the Company also introduced guidance as to net income per share for the quarter. It expects to report net income of 8 to 12 cents per fully diluted share, compared to 21 cents per fully diluted share in the same quarter of fiscal 2005. We anticipate that the lower earnings per share will reflect a higher weighted average number of shares outstanding (approximately 20%) than in the comparable quarter of fiscal 2005, a projected higher effective tax rate, lower margins due primarily to pricing pressure on some of its key products, and higher operating costs at its Hong Kong facility.
In announcing the update, Forward's Chairman and CEO Jerome Ball stated, "We are off to a solid start in Fiscal 2006, with revenues for the first fiscal quarter similar to last year's excellent first quarter, but coming in lower than we originally anticipated. We are disappointed that the factors described above will reduce our reported earnings per share for this quarter; however, we believe that we continue to execute well and are optimistic about the balance of the year. We will provide additional details when we formally announce our quarterly results and file our 10-QSB with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which we expect to be in the first week of February."
About Forward Industries
Forward Industries, Inc. designs and distributes custom carrying case solutions primarily for cellular phones and home medical diagnostic equipment. The Company sells its products directly to original equipment manufacturers and also markets a line of Carry Solutions under the "Motorola" brand name. Forward's products can be viewed online at www.fwdinnovations.com and www.forwardindustries.com.»
I will sell this above $13 if I have the chance !
So, the chart already showed the weakness. Never trust the past fundamental.
The stock is still in downtrend. Do not catch the falling knife.
It is halted for trading. May be that buying into panic selling is good.
This time, selling on rumor and buying into the fact may provide a good trading strategy (I mean short term or day trading).
Look at NVAX it is up today.
Buying on panic selling yesterday and selling today ($3.6->$4.2 18% gain in one day).
It is about $10.00 - $11.00 range. 20% down. The biggest loser (percentage) in NASDAQ today.
Wait for a while, it is all overreaction.
Quote from: shawFund on December 23, 2005, 10:18:55 AM
It is about $10.00 - $11.00 range. 20% down. The biggest loser (percentage) in NASDAQ today.
Wait for a while, it is all overreaction.
10$ a good entry point ?
cheers
Oliver
Big drop on what was already known actually - had technical probs could not place a trade at the low but low enough for good risk rewrd for short term trade
http://tinyurl.com/7rcuh
It finds support at $11. But I think that it is difficult to go over $12.
Let us see.
This is the worst of all:
«We anticipate that the lower earnings per share will reflect a higher weighted average number of shares outstanding (approximately 20%) than in the comparable quarter of fiscal 2005, a projected higher effective tax rate, lower margins due primarily to pricing pressure on some of its key products, and higher operating costs at its Hong Kong facility.»
I was expecting something like $14M in revenues (down from $18M), they will come in between $8.3 to $8.7M, instead.
I was able to get out at a not so bad price, if I wasn't talking on the phone I could have gotten out around $14.
Good luck everybody, I'm going to buy some Christmas presents now, not been having good trading days lately, I hope the new year brings in new profits.
wow, this is my most painful trade this year!! 6% of my portfolio wiped out in one day - and on a holiday weekend as well!!!
think i will take a loss here and go buy some other better companies. preservation of capital is important here.
wishing you all a merry christmas. will think of how to repair this hole after a nice christmas pudding and a glass of brandy.
David,
I wasn't in this one, but I am curious on how you got out of this one at that price after it was halted. My bid ask had 12.92 on the bid, and when it opened it went straight south. I have had stops in front of bad news with no limit on 4 or 5 occasions, and nobody ever bites mine on the way down. What is your secret? I am not being sarcastic, I would really like to know. Who was buying at your exit price after it was halted? I didn't see anybody buying at that price. Maybe you got out right when it got released, but that would be pretty amazing for a guy who does not pay attention to the intraday action very often to time it 100% exactly right. Kudos to you for doing it, I just want to know how so I can avoid losses in the future. With my experience, my order would have been filled somewhere in the 11's with the action I saw, based on what I've looked at in previous experiences.
I sold at 11.33 so a bit under a buck gain - -..anyway this 5-min chart just shows how it ran up to the 11.50 area and could not go higher so a decent place to take profits on a high vol down day. I have the 9 period EMA on the chart and a god break back above it may be a day trade again. However on sell off days the bottom usually gets tested - does not have to be the former bottom of course but a second drop. A lot of folks are trapped and they may want out if it goes up so often better to stand aside until they are out.
(http://xs60.xs.to/pics/05515/ford2312.jpg)
This second chart shows the top after the spike to resistance at 16.85 and the line is the 9-day - often it is good to buy back when a stock goes back above the 9-day but this one never did and it instead broke below the white candle so not a good sign.
(http://xs60.xs.to/pics/05515/ford9day.jpg)
Anyway - some use the 8 MA but I prefer the 9 EMA and I suffer some whipsaws but it also can keep me out of a lot of trouble at time
BTW the airline sector has been very strong lately and LUV still a nice chart
This one UALAQ has just gone up 30% over the last few days but had a break out today and is likely to keep going
(http://xs60.xs.to/pics/05515/ualaq2312.jpg)
and live chart
http://tinyurl.com/c3365
------
oicpecnoc
must have had a sell order at market when it was halted or got in a fast sell when it opened- It opened at 13.64 and ran to 14 beforee falling as you can see on the trades below -
(http://xs60.xs.to/pics/05515/fordstart.jpg)
Hi,
Here's a complete list of trades from the first 5 seconds after it was stop being halted.
Note:
Volume = 100's share lots
Time = hour:minute:seconds:miliseconds
Source: Reuters Bridge Channel
regards,
Hey Fred,
I'm just asking if it was luck? Did you have a market order to sell your shares, a stop with no stop limit or what? After bad news, I am never so lucky to have so many buyers at a reasonable price. NEVER. I wasn't paying that close of attention, but it did drop within seconds it seemed like to the 11's. I know there must have been many market orders in the 13's get passed by, and I just wondered if there was something specific you did differently than me, or if it was just good fortune.
Forward Industries (FORD ) cut its $8.9 million first quarter revenue guidance to $8.3 million to $8.7 million, due to the timing of certain orders it now expects to ship in the second quarter. It sees 8 cents to 12 cents first quarter earnings per share.
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/dec2005/pi20051223_2300_pi004.htm
Question 1:
Minus 30% because of 0.6 Mio $ missing revenue based on late timing of some orders?
Forward Industries Updates First Quarter Guidance
Friday , December 23, 2005 09:44 ET
POMPANO BEACH, Fla., Dec 23, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FORD), a designer and distributor of custom carrying case solutions, today updated its financial guidance for the first fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2005. The following statements are forward looking and actual results may differ materially. Please see the description of certain risk factors in this release and Forward's reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more complete description of risk factors.
First Fiscal Quarter Business Outlook
Based on the current business outlook, the Company now anticipates that its first fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2005 revenues will be $8.3 to $8.7 million. In its previous guidance issued November 17, 2005, the Company previously anticipated that such revenues would be higher than the $8.9 million recorded in the first fiscal quarter of last year. The Company attributed the shortfall to the timing of certain orders that it now expects to ship in its second fiscal quarter.
Based on the current outlook, the Company also introduced guidance as to net income per share for the quarter. It expects to report net income of 8 to 12 cents per fully diluted share, compared to 21 cents per fully diluted share in the same quarter of fiscal 2005. We anticipate that the lower earnings per share will reflect a higher weighted average number of shares outstanding (approximately 20%) than in the comparable quarter of fiscal 2005, a projected higher effective tax rate, lower margins due primarily to pricing pressure on some of its key products, and higher operating costs at its Hong Kong facility.
In announcing the update, Forward's Chairman and CEO Jerome Ball stated, "We are off to a solid start in Fiscal 2006, with revenues for the first fiscal quarter similar to last year's excellent first quarter, but coming in lower than we originally anticipated. We are disappointed that the factors described above will reduce our reported earnings per share for this quarter; however, we believe that we continue to execute well and are optimistic about the balance of the year. We will provide additional details when we formally announce our quarterly results and file our 10-QSB with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which we expect to be in the first week of February."
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.7bb49c1be517c9f9d4d04b7b00cc6d65a2c49bc608592e8403e43ec65f80a531
Heck:
What to do now?
Hate to sell it now - but ???
I got caught -- -- Had to take Effie to the horsepital this AM. Got back -- it was below 11.
I can sit on it for a while - - - ? it is worth keeping at this price 10.05 ?
Quote from: Terlisa on December 18, 2005, 12:48:23 PM
I Cancelled my order for tomorrow...
I'm gonna wait when safer play for FORD shows up
If i see EMA rises and prices close above it.. then i'll jump in ;)
goodluck for those who hold!! ;)
Moving averages serve as support and resistance zones. A rising MA tends to serve as a floor below prices, and a falling MA serves as a ceiling above them. That's why it pays to buy near a rising MA, and sell short near a falling MA.
(Trading for a Living)
I'm so lucky BABY!!!!! ;) :D ;D
Yea, I got stuck too. Making decisions based on end-of-day candlesticks doesn't really do much for you here... :'(
Basically, there was no way to get out above $12 after it resumed its trading today.
The MM had to take care of its own shares before individuals. It droped to a low of $8.5 in three minutes then recovered back to a high of $11.50, followed by gradually decline to $9.95.
During the process, I bought it at $10.40 then exit at $10.20, took $0.20 loss (800 shares and $180 loss).
One bad investment will wrap out many previous gains.
If one bought at $14.6 and did not have the chance to get out today, that isa 32% loss.
If only 6.6% is allocated into this stock, it only lost about 2% in the whole portfolio. If you have a higher weight, the loss will hurt more.
So, diversification is a must.
Even for day traders like myself cannot avoid the sudden drop because the news is announced during the tradinghours not afte hours.
Recent big drops in our portfolio include:
NVAX - new share offering,
SCMR - downgrade
FORD - lower guidence
GSS - private placement
EYII.OB - giving missleading information
TMTA - bad earning release
Also some very lucky escapes:
BIDU - sold before bad earning release
HYRF.OB - sold before cheating is found
...
No stock is good unless you earned money on it.
I have been lucky, selected some good companies to invest long term such as AMD, SYNA, RHAT, ... and still gained 65% this year (biggest loss EYII.OB about $8,000.00).
I started a day-trading account this month (Dec) and managed to have gained about 6% so far. I will summerize the monthly performence at the end of this month.
Good luck to all of you.
Quote from: oicpecnoc on December 23, 2005, 03:22:32 PM
Hey Fred,
I'm just asking if it was luck? Did you have a market order to sell your shares, a stop with no stop limit or what? After bad news, I am never so lucky to have so many buyers at a reasonable price. NEVER. I wasn't paying that close of attention, but it did drop within seconds it seemed like to the 11's. I know there must have been many market orders in the 13's get passed by, and I just wondered if there was something specific you did differently than me, or if it was just good fortune.
I have 3 accounts to trade shares:
- Ameritrade
- Trading Direct
- Fincor
This Fincor is a small Portuguese Broker and the owner is a close friend of mine (it is a very small brokerage house and he's the one that usually puts my orders in the market). I held FORD at Fincor. I was talking on the phone with him and suddenly he said «you got out at $13.64».
I believe he had a sell order on the market at $13 long before the stock opened for trading, since I specifically told him that I would sell anything above $13, as I said on the e-mail alert I sent that morning while the stock was halted.
Anyway, I feel it is unfair to use $13.64 as the selling price, since probably not many people were able to sell above $13 as I said it would be wise. Also, the 3 Stocks on Fire service is an end of the day service and I don't want subscribers to be worried about watching the intraday activity.
I was prepared to take a big punch, since I hold just 6.66% of capital in each stock (maximum of 15 different stocks held on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio) and that is my recommendation in terms of money management rules to all subscribers.
Considering all this, I'll correct the selling price on FORD from $13.64 to today's opening price so the loss by most subscribers that followed this recommendation stays «on record».
I entered with David at 14.33. Exit price was at 16.14. Triggered by the pullback from the high of 16.80. Just lucky, not bragging. I am so sorry to see this large drop in price (for all our 3SOF members ) that came out of left field due to the news release. I moved the funds to AUY at 5.25. This issue should be able to gain back the loss on Ford. You may have noticed the takeover plays in the metal sector recently. Companies with 2 & 2 ( thats 200,000 ozs of production and 2 million ozs in reserves move to the takeover list for the larger companies that cannot find reserves. AUY just entered the 400,000 oz production arena and the operations in South America ( primarily in Brazil ) are top shelf money makers. Ford can be just a stumble on the road to better profits.
David,
Was it a sell limit order, or a sell market order? What I am hearing you say is what I suspected, that you got lucky and that it very easily could have gone the other way based on the volume. Did the fact that you use a broker directly to make the trade give you an adavantage over say a "Scottrade" user such as myself? Perhaps these are ridiculous questions, but since I have not had the same luck after a collapse, I find these details important enough to ask to possibly avoid future losses.
Quote from: oicpecnoc on December 28, 2005, 12:37:01 AM
David,
Was it a sell limit order, or a sell market order? What I am hearing you say is what I suspected, that you got lucky and that it very easily could have gone the other way based on the volume. Did the fact that you use a broker directly to make the trade give you an adavantage over say a "Scottrade" user such as myself? Perhaps these are ridiculous questions, but since I have not had the same luck after a collapse, I find these details important enough to ask to possibly avoid future losses.
I'm sorry I took so long to answer your question oicpecnoc, I guess I was just lucky since most of the times my execution is a bit bad too. Since I know there was not enough volume or time for all 3 SOF subscribers that followed the FORD recommendation to get out, I used the next opening price to settle on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, which was $10.20 (also and primarily because I am proud that I don't need to watch the intraday action to trade stocks).
Good luck the next time oicpecnec :)
Is there life here. Up 6% today.
Jumped across that 8 sma T. ;)
Here's my chart, resistance (and then support) at $11.90 hopefully coming.
uc.
Up 17% with volume coming in. See if it can stay above $11.
uc.
Thought I would post chart before earnings.
uc.
Forward Industries to Announce Fiscal Year 2006 Results on November 16 end after market close
POMPANO BEACH, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:FORD - News), a designer and distributor of custom carrying case solutions, today announced that the Company will issue financial results for its fiscal year 2006 ended September 30, 2006 on Thursday November 16, 2006 after the market closes.
That industry really is, you should pay your tax if you want to live your life well. Because of thinking too much about our taxes and arguing to the concerns I have now breathing difficulties. Anyway, I have already bought portable oxygen just in case of emergencies.
BOOYAH, to a good looking trader picture!!!! ;) :P ;D