GIGM - GigaMedia Limited, a holding company, engages in the distribution of recorded music, as well as in the provision of broadband Internet access services and online entertainment services in Taiwan.
Rumor: The story on this one is that the earnings release should have happened in mid-may. No-report out yet and its the beginning of June. Rumor is they are getting the books in order because of a buyout, spinoff, or some other deal...basically all good rumors.
Technicals: All the moving averages bunched up with consolidation as the volume went way down. Now you have all the moving averages turning with it to provide support...with a rise in volume.
Something to put on the watchlist...or perhaps take a position in.
The chart pattern shows vertical rises and forward steep slope spikes. Meaning any gains abrupt and after that they are not sustained. Sign of a 'one day wonder' perhaps. But could be ready for another flight. However, it now all depends on the direction of market.
hmm just after i buy the stock they announce when there earnings will be...(9am Wed. June 8th
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050603/lnf023.html?.v=5
I will most likely be a holder over earnings:
http://www.chinastockblog.com/ticker_gigm/
nice reaction to earnings...woohoo 8)
sold mine @ 2... thinkin of buying back in...filled the gap after strong earnings?
Bought 10k shares yesterday at 1.75 and sold it at 2.00 early this morning. Bought again (5k shares for longer term) at 1.80 because I bellieve it could be a real turnaround considering management has done a terrific job in the past year. I would like it even more if they dump some of their losing ventures and capitalize on the gaming segment. Plus, looking forward to some acquisition news in the future. Looking to add 5k shares when the opportunity present itself. Good luck.
coo, i'm back right where you are 8)
but I will not allow anything less than 9ema :o
good luck to u 2, thx
Good support @ 1.61
Long @ 1.64 - 10k
Stop loss - 1.58 @ close
it violated the 9ema for a short while but I am still in..stop @ 1.65
nice buy LuxAA ;)
1.75!! Excellent recovery!!
Cool , very cool! 8)
Good pick.All indicators have turned north,volume is building.
Good earnings report a + for the stock.
support @ 1.74.....resistance @ 2.04
If it can break above the 2.00 area and hold it there may be
better things to come.
I have placed this on watch. ;D
Good luck with your trade.I applaud you.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=gigm
HEll, I went ahead and bought this possible for the long- who knows. I like it. tje word on the street is too optimistic tlaking about it hitting 10. I do not think that is the case, but in time I see a target price b/w 5-7
This seems like an excellent pick Michael. It was on my 18 stocks short list, but I got a bit discouraged knowing it was a Taiwanese company. Now I find it is a global company.
I wish it goes a lot higher, nice research, thank you ! I may even consider buying it if I sell some stocks, unfortunately today I'll reach my limit of 15 different holdings.
It just may be in play today, it is up in pre-market...........
GigaMedia has rallied after posting first profitable year. "Good Earnings"
Nice Pick....I too will watch today with great interest. :o
Good luck with your trade.
Beautiful!! 8)
Yeah up 9% in the pre-market. Not bad for a newbie ;D
I think it can go much higher!
we are rockin 8)
The heat is on........eliteG.
Something is cooking!!!!!!! :o
Heavy Volume (2 million in 30 minutes). :o
Burning!!!!! 2,15!!
;D
Another great pick from eliteG ;)
Applaud !
um...WOW. ;D nice close!
Good pick eliteG. Bullish 50/200-day MA Crossover for GIGM today.
This stock is both fundamentally and technically very strong. Hope to jump the bandwagon at pullback.
had a big run yesterday
is GIGM another IIJI ?
GIGM just showed their first profits.
i am not a chart reader. can someone please give chart opinion?
:)
sorry. didn't see eliteG's post below.
IIJI had different speculative ingredients then any other stock. Can't compare the two. As far as momentum is concerned, DSTI could be somewhat compared to IIJI or may be VPHM.
I have a position in VPHM.
Will GIGM continue to climb or is it done?
3 out of 4 stocks follow the market. At the moment the market is going through correction and so is GIGM. I am myself waiting to initiate position in the stock. But the market action is at the moment somewhat bearish. Still to me it seems GIGM is not done yet.
Rocket8 - lets see if she can hold up.
hi eliteG, stocky, and guys,
held all day around $2.04-$2.06 then rose a lot.
how do you feel about the price rising so much at the end of the day?
is that manipulation? will the price hold?
will it go to $2.50 ?
Rocket8
bought GIGM 2.25 for a new swing trade today. target $3.00+
GIGM has been hot this week..any thoughts
gigm has been on this message board all week.
i think it will see $3.00+
nice entry points today
Hi Rocket
This is from Yahoo MB:
1. Current assets - TOTAL liabilities = $45 million. For a conservative valuation, fixed assets and goodwill shouldn't be included, only those current (liquid assets) covering all liabilities.
2. Broadband and music - considering the cost cutting measures management has implemented, the profit on these segments should be $1.5-3 million this year. Conservatively, using a P/E of 10, 1.5*10 = $15 million. Again this is a very conservative valuation.
3. Online gaming – here's the difficult one. GIGM has only been in this business about one year, but the industry is growing like wild-fire. First-movers have the advantage here, and GIGM is a first mover in ASIA, and Asians love to gamble. They made $2 million profit in the 4Q/04. Amazing, considering the little amount time they've been in the business. Margins are great here, around 50%. Conservatively, let's say they need time to get the ball rolling, and have extra expenses associated with a growing business, so they only make $6 million for '05. A growing business like this deserves at least a 20 P/E so that's (20*6) = $120 million.
So add it up, 45+15+120=$180 million. In other words, at least (50million shares/180,000,000 value) = $3.6 per share.
I think this is a conservative valuation, and I am a firm believer in the rapid growth of online gambling. If GIGM plays their cards right, marketing their product well, the sky is the limit here.
I think it is very conservative as well. Online gaming has been growing very rapidly since they took over the business. (300%) from Q3 to Q4. If you assume that it would grow with just 33% over the next quarters the revenue and profit would look like this (assuming the profit margin would stay the same which also is conservative):
Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Full year 2005
Revenue 2,236 6,838 9,095 12,096 16,087 21,396 58,674
Profit 50 2,061 2,741 3,646 4,849 6,449 17,685
P/E 20
Market cap 353,690
With 50 million shares gaming alone could jystify $7 per share. I guess people comes with these very conservative forecast because $7 just seems to good to be true. Sometimes people needs the truth en small packages!
Hi Michael,
I saw that post on GIGM yahoo board too. I was wondering why volume and price are low today. For such amazing news GIGM has not really moved that high. Its trading today at $2.35 and has nearly $1 in cash. I wonder if people are skeptical because it is a Taiwanese company. I also wonder if volume will drop back to 200,000 or less per day and the price fall back. I clearly agree that GIGM is worth much more. $200m MKTCAP seems very very reasonable. What do you know about the IPO? Is that the culprit? Is it new shares to be issued?
Rocket8
financials for GIGM....
http://ww3.ics.adp.com/streetlink_data/dirGIGM/sa2F06.pdf
proxy for GIGM....
http://ww3.ics.adp.com/streetlink_data/dirGIGM/saDEE5.pdf
PARTYGAMING goes public next week I believe.
Nice bounce off from the support at 2 on Friday.
The Yahoo MB is boiling due to the Party gaming IPO and GIGM will post Q1 in July and I think we will see a steady increase till the figures are out!
watch gigm
Will leave the chart.
i was trying to find a list of licensees of CES (GIGM's subsidiary) software?
michael -- do u know any of the sites?
i saw a few on yahoo msg board for GIGM.
go GIGM.
check out gigm today
hi michael,
i have heard earning estimates of $0.14 to $0.17 for GIGM for this year but I have not been able to verify that more than 1 analyst actually predicted that. I looked on yahoo and hoovers. Yahoo has 1 analyst prediction but it doesn't appear very real to me. Only $0.02 for 1st quarter is the prediction.
GIGM is moving up slowly each day. pretty good.
-rocket8
CHECK OUT GIGM
SORRY FOR THE NEW THREAD
DELETE IT AFTER
maybe setting up for next week ;) goodluck rocket
ON THE MOVE BOYS!! ;D
It sure looks like it is ready for the next step up. Q1 is out this month and managemnet has been very bullish - especially on the online gaming business.
Just want to applaud Michael, not only a great pick, but a sound justification too.
How do you find stocks with attractive fundamentals? Any screener?
Thanks !
Hi David,
Thanks for the kind words, I was actually afraid I had p..... you off as our strategies sometimes collide.
You might be surprised but i actually use charts to short-list stocks (that is why I love posters like yourself, eliteG and Stockpicker - you guys do the hard work!).
As I know my own limitations in the art of reading charts I also use:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan
or
http://www.americanbulls.com/StockList.asp?MarketTicker=NASD&Tick=G
As an economist I love to read the quarter and annual reports for stocks that are short-listed for technical reasons and that is how I make my picks (some more successful than others ???). I am not religious about charts and are not afraid of holding a stock even if the technical signals turn bearish as long as the fundamentals doesn't change.
If you go down to GIGM on the americanbulls link you will see that it is a "buy if". If it hold the increase today it will be a confirmed buy on Monday and those how buy today will be one day ahead of the TA's.
On another note it seems I was to aggressive with my limited order on AOBO.OB. Thinking about raising my limit but as Fred say: Plan the trade and trade the plan.
Mike
It looks like our strategies are pretty similar, I also screen the charts and after I look inside the fundamentals.
But I've researched much more on TA than FA because I've been trading just stock index futures for some years. I'm glad I can learn more about fundamental analysis with 3SF members.
I'm also an economist ;)
big week for gigm
Dear Michael,
Thanks for your stock picking.
What is your target for this GIGM?
Will there be any upcoming event for this company?
I expect that we will see a run up to the release of Q1 which I (and the management) is very confident will be positive. I really haven't put much thoughts into what the target would be for this run up as I am not planning to sell but probably 2.75-2.85. My target after Q1 would be around 3.6-3.75 but this obviously have to be updated when the figures are out!
Nice action the last couple of days:
$3.00?
Still goin!!!!
$3.00+ ?
I think we have yet another break out under good volume. The resistance arond 2.5 was swept away today.
I expected a run up to Q1 but it came a bit earlier than anticipated (or maybe Q1 will come earlier!)
Anyhow this seems to be a good time to add to your position (that is at least what I am trying)
Michael,
I wanted to thank-you for such a good pick (applaud)! :D I have been patiently waiting to buy in since I first saw your post, and finally took the opportunity yesterday.
Definitely some good movement today! Thanks again!
Michael, I applaud you ! ;)
Michael,
good analysis on GIGM.
"English is spoken by 322 million people all over the world and I guess it is understandable that American's believe that English is spoken by the whole world but that is fare from true!"
I can bet my bottom dollar that the actual number is much higher than 322 million. India is the largest English speaking democracy. I rest my case! Frankly speaking the dual language should be encouraged in all educational curriculums i.e English and Mother tongue. The more the languages one speaks the better. JMO
Hi Michael,
Thanks for your post. I entered GIGM around the same time as you and had been increasing positions since. I hold VPHM and looks like you do too. I also have BRVO and LSI from this board. These 4 stocks account for 62% of my total portfolios.
We seem to have similar trading plans. I see a good technical and filter it by doing a thorough DD on its fundamentals. Then I will enter a position if I am thorough convinced, which is the case for GIGM and VPHM (and BRVO and LSI of course).
I agree with your $10 analysis on GIGM and $20 (probably even more) on VPHM. I may sell some before this point, but I will try to hold a good portion till these points.
Weekly chart:
Michael-
Thank you for bringing this stock to my attention. I am in at $2.32 since last week. I notice there is some pumping on the yahoo boards for this stock so it appears that this stock will be on many radar screens, especially after the WPTE offer and the volume on Friday. ;)
Melf, Thx for the chart analysis. I appreciate seeing your charts as I am trying to learn the art of chart reading myself. HAve a tough time picking up those small/ short term head and shoulder formations. These charts prove as terrific validations of the moves. I'm curious if you wouldn't mind looking at the SIRI chart for me and provide your opinion. Thx
Quote from: AustinPowers on July 10, 2005, 11:32:24 AM
Michael-
Melf, Thx for the chart analysis. I appreciate seeing your charts as I am trying to learn the art of chart reading myself. HAve a tough time picking up those small/ short term head and shoulder formations. These charts prove as terrific validations of the moves. I'm curious if you wouldn't mind looking at the SIRI chart for me and provide your opinion. Thx
I've been looking at SIRI since I read the Motley Fool article from July 7. I put the chart and the article in the SIRI file for you.
I bought GIGM at $2.50 on the pullback to the triangle breakout, basis the daily chart. Stop is a close or obvious late day tank blow 2.13. GIGM currently is 2.49 BID...2.49 ASK.
Oops...here's the daily chart:
man those are great looking charts Melf(applaud) wish things go just go straight up for once!
Quote from: eliteG on July 11, 2005, 11:25:35 AM
man those are great looking charts Melf(applaud) wish things go just go straight up for once!
Thanks. I hope that you don't think that you created a monster, teaching me how to post my "pizza" charts. >:D
I know I'm not the first one to bring GIGM to the stage on 3SOF, I just hope I'm not the last :)
This is Michael's pick (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=604.0), and he's a very good fundamental analyst ! So, fundamentals and technicals are working in tandem in GIGM.
Reading Michael's thread on the Stock Picking Board makes me know a lot about the company's businesses and prospects.
I wonder if I should dig more ... no, I shouldn't, there's no way in 10 or 20 minutes I'll know more about the company than what is already stated in Michael's analysis. So I'll just go a bit deeper into what I know best, technical analysis:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1967;image)
The stock closed at a new 52 week high on Friday with volume above average (or it wouldn't surpass my filtering). The current advance phase has more volume than the last one, so one can suspect it will go higher than the $2.56 previous relative high.
The trend is clearly bullish and if we ever go higher than $3.70 we enter a territory not seen in GIGM since the bubble days in 2000. In fact, GIGM made it's debut on the Nasdaq on 18th February of 2000. The debut price was $63.5. What the heck, let me show you the all history chart for GIGM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1968;image)
At this time we possibly have a perfect setup to buy GIGM at Monday's open. I could have bought it earlier, but ... I think we're still far away from being too late, no stock is ever too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling (and you go tell the stock is too high to the people who still own it from the IPO ;D).
This analysis was part of the Top 10 stocks for Monday (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1368.0). At the end of the thread I concluded to buy 6.66% of capital in GIGM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1368.msg8320#msg8320). Now I've started this new thread to update my analysis on GIGM everyday until I sell the stock.
I've spent some years speculating in stocks and I know it is very hard, almost impossible, to accurately predict if a stock will have a pullback or not.
We can determine trend, but using oscillators to grasp overbought and oversold conditions is a foolish play.
I'm not a bit worried because I bought GIGM yesterday and I'm losing 6.67%. I have my position in a technically and fundamentally backed stock and that's all I care about.
My method only shows stocks for consideration if they had a white candle with volume above average on the previous day. So I couldn't find GIGM while it was experiencing a pullback.
GIGM will report earnings next Tuesday: GigaMedia to Report First-Quarter 2005 Financial Results on July 19 (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=168006&guid=%7B2798E3D6%2D86B1%2D456F%2D9947%2D277F950FED9C%7D&symb=)
If Michael is right about the fundamentals of this company probably earnings will be a positive surprise. I have a simple plan to trade this stock, and that is to hold it as long as it closes above that ascending trendline (in fact I've changed my chart to semi-log scale, or it would be possible for the stock to run a lot away from the ascending trendline. The semi-log scale will be a better chart to evaluate the medium to long term trend going forward.)
David,
You might see that just the release of the earning date will give the stock a lift. The last report was late and some has been concerned that this report also would be late.
I think they can't wait too release the figures. That is why we have an early date :D
Well, GIGM didn't get a boost from announcing the earnings release date. It will be Tuesday before the open. I count on Michael to give us a first hand analysis (sorry about giving you work ;D).
The ascending trendline that supports price (and my long position) will be at $2.40 on Monday, so I hope the stock doesn't go down before the earnings release. Anyway, I won't be too rigid on this plan, it depends on market action, day by day.
A print of 2.54 today is another bullish pattern technical breakout.
What's meant by the term "print", as in a print of $2.54?
Thanks
Jeff
Quote from: jeff46902 on July 18, 2005, 07:59:25 PM
What's meant by the term "print", as in a print of $2.54?
Thanks
Jeff
It means "trade at that price."
I guess that's a throwback to the old days when they used those ticker tape machines, and the trades would get "printed" on a tape, and come out of the machine. "It's crossing the tape at 2.54," or "we need a print of 2.54 for a breakout" mean "a trade at 2.54."
GIGM didn't break out yesterday, but it put in a doji star hammer at the bottom of the pattern. then rallied and closed five cents higher in a down market. That's a nice day for GIGM. A doji star is a candlestick in which the open and the close are nearly identical, and they appear almost as a single horizontal line across the vertical line.
The hammer part means that the stock is trying to "hammer out a bottom." In this case, at the bottom of the falling wedge pattern. GIGM opened at 2.46, went down to 2.34 and held at the bottom of the falling wedge, then came right back up and closed at 2.45, poised for a pattern breakout. Volume also improved over Friday's selloff, which is good.
Poised for a pattern breakout means that "it's in position," or "it's ready to breakout." Yesterday's test of support at the bottom of the pattern
did turn out to be support, then GIGM rallied into the close.
It could remain in the wedge, and go down and test the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle, but yesterday's nice candlestick, with the stock closing at the high end of the trading range, "looks ready."
We'll see. The top of the wedge is sloping down, so the pattern breakout for today is lowered to "a print of 2.50." ;) We would like to see it trade there, then head higher toward the two bullish pattern targets (2.95 - 3.11) on increasing volume.
Those targets are only what these two pattens suggest. GIGM could go higher than that if it breaks out.
EDIT: I'd also like to see "a print of 2.50" because that's exactly what I paid for GIGM, and I'd like to start making a profit. ;)
TAIPEI, Taiwan, July 18 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM) today postponed by one day its first quarter 2005 earnings release and investor webcast due to a severe typhoon affecting Taiwan and southern China.
The new schedule is as follows:
GigaMedia will report the Company's first-quarter 2005 financial results on Wednesday, July 20, 2005 before the market opens.
Another touch on support and another coming back from GIGM, this time with volume above average.
I see now that after all the earnings release won't be today, but tomorrow, please read here:
GigaMedia: Earnings Release Rescheduled Due to Severe Typhoon (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B3E5CCE81%2D9BA4%2D4C56%2DAC5F%2DA7F9D28C605C%7D)
No problem with this, holding the stock through the earnings release.
gigm's moving UP now. 10am.
tomorrow is earnings.
good luck to all.
QuoteGIGM opened at 2.46, went down to 2.34 and held at the bottom of the falling wedge, then came right back up and closed at 2.45, poised for a pattern breakout. Volume also improved over Friday's selloff, which is good.
GIGM printed 2.50, so we've gotten the technical breakout. Volume is unexciting, but that doesn't concern me. This is a breakout of an 8-day bullish continuation pattern (Bullish Falling Wedge), not a major pattern breakout.
QuoteThe top of the wedge is sloping down, so the pattern breakout for today is lowered to "a print of 2.50." We would like to see it trade there, then head higher toward the two bullish pattern targets (2.95 - 3.11) on increasing volume.
Now that we've gotten the Bullish Falling Wedge breakout, if the company can manage to report earnings tomorrow that aren't disappointing, GIGM is poised to rally on volume to the two bullish pattern targets (2.95 - 3.11), which I'd expect to see by the end of the week.
GIGM currently is 2.55 BID...2.57 ASK
it looks like that G pattern that eliteG drew the other day in the elite infinite compound board.
up down then up higher.
$2.65 now
Quote from: Rocket8 on July 19, 2005, 01:37:45 PM
it looks like that G pattern that eliteG drew the other day in the elite infinite compound board.
up down then up higher.
$2.65 now
It looks like players are jumping in on this second bullish technical breakout, anticipating that the company won't disappoint them with earnings tomorrow. They'd better not! >:(
Sure would be nice if we get a positive earnings surprise ;D
Quote from: Rocket8 on July 19, 2005, 01:37:45 PM
it looks like that G pattern that eliteG drew the other day in the elite infinite compound board.
up down then up higher.
$2.65 now
The pattern is very similar, but I believe EliteG had said that the decline mustn't drop below the base of the first high-volume white candle. Also, I think the flat trail leading to the breakout does not lead right up to the white candle. The chart ascends first, then the white candle....
Be interested to get Elite's opinion. It this is in fact the infamous G-pattern, then presumably the entry is about $2.50!
Cross your fingers! ;D
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 19, 2005, 01:49:49 PM
It looks like players are jumping in on this second bullish technical breakout, anticipating that the company won't disappoint them with earnings tomorrow. They'd better not! >:(
Sure would be nice if we get a positive earnings surprise ;D
Melf,
It could also be that the Earnings have been leaked. After all they should have been released today.
Just a thought - we will see tomorrow!
i was talking about the intraday chart. not the chart.
it looked like eliteG's pattern G.
now at 2.70. wow
i think the taiwanese would not leak anything.
this new management appears to me to be very serious and tight.
i think they are very good.
Quote from: Michael on July 19, 2005, 03:42:03 PM
[
Melf,
It could also be that the Earnings have been leaked. After all they should have been released today.
Just a thought - we will see tomorrow!
Could be, Michael, but the buying certainly is warranted. The two bullish continuation pattern breakouts that I've been discussing are only short-term patterns that need to be viewed within the context of the larger two-year pattern breakout of June 13, which was VERY bullish.
Could be exciting tomorrow if the company doesn't disappoint. The chart patterns certainly are there for a nice rally.
Today is GIGM's 1st Conference Call.
Good Luck To ALL
Hoping for $.03 EPS and for GIGM to rise.
Results are out: GigaMedia: Fourth Consecutive Quarter of Profit (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=168006&guid=%7B412069D2%2D69A8%2D4962%2D89D3%2DEDFBBDFA3253%7D&symb=)
I don't know, they don't seem very good, with a sequential quarter on quarter fall in revenues and earnings. Yet the company says good things about the future.
Well, I'm much more of a technical analyst than a financial analyst, so I'll do what the chart tells me to do, and that is: «hold as long as the stock closes above the ascending trendline», which today will stand at $2.45.
David,
Will you sell intraday if it falls under 2.45$?
Ohad
No OhadOnFire, I never take into account what happens intraday. Only a close below $2.45 tells me to sell at the next opening.
This strategy makes me no use of watching the intraday quotes and it saves me from a lot of technical noise and false signals.
Going down in pre-market. :(
anyone watching this? Yikes!
hopefully it bounce back up and close above $2.45 today. ::)
I'm hoping there's going to be support around 2.20, we will see...
GigaMedia: Fourth Consecutive Quarter of Profit
Wednesday July 20, 7:18 am ET
Q1 Net Profit of $1.0 Million
Highlights of 1Q05 Results -- Consolidated revenues of US$25.6 million -- Consolidated EBITDA* of US$2.5 million -- Consolidated net income of US$1.0 million -- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities-current of US$46.5 million
"The rest of the volatility is hype... and this stock has a lot of it... should be a fun ride."
I finalized the analysis of the Q1. I have to say that I am disappointed.
The Broadband and the Music distribution business performed as expected. I bought GIGM due to the potential of the Online gaming segment and I am very disappointed about the development here. The growth is limited (part of the reason is seasonal) and the profitability is below my expectations. I know this is partly due to the development of the new game concepts, but it is mostly due to the lack of growth.
As a fundamental investor I am as ruthless as the TA guy's. If I see that the fundamentals is not developing as I expect I sell. I have therefore sold at market price (which was 2.29 when I started writing this).
I am also a bit concerned about the accounting (especially that the equity is falling even though the company is profitable) I am however not finished looking at that. There could be good reasons for this!
I will follow GIGM with interest. I will be back if they start to produce growth in their online business. I might have to buy back at a higher level but I have to be faithful to my trading strategy.
Good luck to everybody!
GIGM did trade awfully strangely after it's last earnings release. I would at least hold until tomorrow to see what happens.
Thanks Eagerlearner,
I look at things differently. It is not the sector that disappointed me but GIGM. I still want to be exposed in the sector so I will buy CRYP today. If not before then at the close.
CRYP is a more established player and a pure Online Gaming play.
Have you seen any interesting movement around the HQ lately ;D
Mike
Quote from: Michael on July 20, 2005, 12:44:02 PM
Have you seen any interesting movement around the HQ lately ;D
lol michael. interesting enuf, the HQ is indeed about 10 mins from where i live. lol.
good luck with CRYP. CRYP is in good TA shape as Melf analyzed. and i am hoping the best for CRYP, for local economy ;D
cheers!
Disappointing online gambling revs. I think the hype ran ahead of this stock..still the company has its affairs in order now and is profitable. Long term hold maybe?
The online gambling sector may take off at some point for them, but at least through March 31 2005 it was still only growing at a 6% Q/Q clip...roughly 25% annually...not bad but not enough to get anyone excited and definitely enough to get rid of the spec traders for a while...this may well be dead money for a while, but probably has a downside limited to $2 given the balance sheet and profitability...IMO
Maybe they have great(better gambling growth) 2Q numbers to report later? That is the $64 million question
:-\
Pardon my intrusion, but I see on Thunderbunny july 19th chart a powerfull signal unnoticed -negative divergence- higher prices and lower highs on slow STO and MACD lines. Never ignore this signal.
The reaction to earnings sure is disappointing, and it damages the two short-term bullish patterns on the chart, but we're at what "should be" support. My main concern is that we're down 16% on alot of volume.
The main reason that I bought GIGM was that it had a breakout of a two-year Symmetrical Triangle on June 13 (for that pattern, scroll up to see my chart from yesterday). On a log chart, which I'm using, that trendline comes in at 2.16, which is today's low. Former resistance "should be" support. So far, it is. My plan is to stick with my original stop: a CLOSE or obvious late day tank below 2.139.
On a linear chart, the top of the Symmetrical Triangle comes in today at 2.05. Some might be using the June 23 low of 2.01 as a stop.
Quote from: invol_inlf on July 20, 2005, 01:19:08 PM
Pardon my intrusion, but I see on Thunderbunny july 19th chart a powerfull signal unnoticed -negative divergence- higher prices and lower highs on slow STO and MACD lines. Never ignore this signal.
That's a common misconception. When stocks are trending, positive and negative divergences in a technical indicator are common, and they don't necessarily mean buy or sell. Here's just one of many examples: ANF (chart below).
During the rally from $27 at the August, 2004 low, there were a number of negative divergences between price and MACD all along the way, but the stock kept moving higher. This chart shows only about six months. There was a negative divergence between price and MACD in early March, and again in mid-April. ANF sold off some, traded sideways to down, never broke important support, and went to $74.
If you keep selling because of all of the negative divergences in indicators, you'd have no chance of catching the rally of almost 200% in ANF over the past year. Same with other stocks that are in strong trends, bullish or bearish.
In bear markets, you will hear "look at all of the positive divergences" as the stock continues to sink. Those postive divergences aren't buy signals.
Never say never. Oops, I said it again... ;)
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1121883040140?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NYSE:ANF&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
I had a few mails asking about my take on the prospects for the stock price.
I agree with Melf. There is support at 2.17, which I believe will hold today. It might even bounce of from there (the next support is at 2.02 this support is stronger but I can't see us test this today). Medium term I would expect the stock to stay a bit depressed for some time. We might have to wait until Q3 before we see some action. Long-term I still love the company. It is in a bullish sector, the management is excellent and the company is in a turn around situation.
My main reason for selling was that my valuation of the company changed fundamentally with the lower growth of the online gaming business.
I apologize for any discrepancies from my direct answers but this is a process and we all get wiser as time pass!
Mike
They dropped it from 2.18 to 2.12 in the final minute. The devils! >:D I'll be a seller in the morrning. Michael is right. That 2.01 low could hold, but that's enough for me.
I think you're right. I looked through the numbers and the only disappointing ones i could find were the comparison between 4Q2004 entertainment software and 1Q2005.
I still think they're good for another new 52 wk high considering how much they've turned the company around. How long that will take is the question.
Dear all,
I can see I get a steady flow of Smite points. I assume this is because I have told that I have sold a share or two, which I previously have talked positive about. (It can obviously also just be because you guys are tired of my endless posts on the board!)
Even though I appreciate applauds and try to learn from smite points that is not the reason why I post here.
I like the constructive debat on the site and the invaluable input I receive from the rest of you.
It is in that spirit I tell when and why I sell. I believe this is as important as to tell when and why I buy. (In fact this can some times be more valuable - I at least find it more difficult to time my sales than my purchases)
I am sorry if that offend anybody but I think it is the right thing to do.
Mike
Dear Michael.
On the contrary: I've applauded you!
I really appreciate all the work you put into your posts, and I'm trying to learn from them.
I'm also sitting with GIGM - not happily, but it was actually one I'd have picked myself, even if it had not been mentioned on 3SOF. (Goes to show what a great trader I am! :-\ )
It is easy enough to blunder into a stock and buy it. The trick is to know when to sell, as you also said. I usually hold too long, so that the profit dissapears - sometimes I even hold on in the hope that the stock will make a great comeback >:( ;D >:(
Please continue posting like you have done up till now.
;) and just to keep the spirits up, here is another applause ;)
I appreciate your posts regarding GIGM earnings. I could look deep into them too, but I don't want to. Discipline is the most important thing in trading, and when a man breaks a rule or doesn't follow his previously made trading plan, he may get lost in the market ... and that's when losses bite hard.
So, there's not much thinking to do, I'll sell GIGM at today's open.
Sold at 2.10 for a 16% loss. >:(
Good call. This thing is tanking. Wish i would have sold.
Ditto, Dave. Took your advice and sold after the open....$2.10 stop. Thanks for keeping the "trade" in perspective..s.till a good turnaround story just not too sure of the downside. Should have sold into the pre earnings hype...shoulda would coulda! :'(
hi, David,
What do you think about EBAY short term going?
Hi, David
is agix break up? the chart look good.
Good move, look where support is.
http://tinyurl.com/8zgnr
i picked GIGM too.
bought at $2.18 on average.
took too long to sell and lost too.
i am not sure support is at $2.00.
i don't read TA but here is my reasoning....
during the last quarter, with all the incredible hype for GIGM, I was able to buy several times between $2.03 and $2.10 on slow volume days.
now without the hype (due to the poor Q1 performance) I cannot see how we won't be able to buy GIGM (if u wanted to) at $1.80-$1.99 at some point during the next month before Q2 results are announced.
20 trading days between now and Q2 results announced. i think there will be plenty of slow volume days between now and then.
after being burned on GIGM I dont know if I would buy it again. i expect $.01 for earnings 2nd quarter.
-rocket8
Hi Rocket,
I am out of the stock for now as you know but I still keep an eye on the stock.I am not sure whether to buy before or after Q2.
Have you seen that they were added to the naked short list yesterday? http://www.buyins.net/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=gigm
Mike
Quote from: Michael on August 09, 2005, 02:07:22 AM
Hi Rocket,
I am out of the stock for now as you know but I still keep an eye on the stock.I am not sure whether to buy before or after Q2.
I hadn't looked at the GIGM chart since the earnings disappointment, Mike, until you mentioned it here. I'm glad that you brought it up again because it helped me to see where I went wrong on this one.
After the bullish Symmetrical Triangle breakout on June 13, the chart looked so good, I hadn't considered the Bear Flag possibility that existed prior to the earnings announcement (see chart below). We broke below the Bear Flag at 2.25 when earnings came out. I still can remember the stock trading at the level most of the afternoon, until it really tanked at the close, where I was stopped out (I sold the next morning's open at 2.10).
Given that the break of the Bear Flag put 1.47 IN PLAY, I now can see why 2.00 wasn't support. Since GIGM has been in an overall uptrend, we might not get the 1.47, but we're now in what looks to be a fractal (repeating pattern) of the larger Bear Flag on the chart. If we break the current Bear Flag to the downside, that would put about 1.62 IN PLAY, depending on where the break occurs. 1.62 currently is the up trendline from the big Symmetrical Triangle (dark blue up trendline). 1.70 is the 200 DMA, so I think we'll see 1.62-1.70 on a break.
If GIGM can close above the current Bear Flag, I'd rate that neutral at this point, given the overhead resistance from the larger Bear Flag.
QuoteHave you seen that they were added to the naked short list yesterday? http://www.buyins.net/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=gigm
I can't argue with them. Shorting the break of the big Bear Flag at 2.25, or near there, looks to have been the right play. Where the shorts might get into trouble is if GIGM finds support at 1.62-1.70, and they fail to cover. Or, if GIGM rallies directly from here, obviously. ;D
As the chart stands, I think it's likely that we'll see 1.62-1.70.
earnings i figured at 1 cent.
to be announced in august.
this is the worst quarter of the year for GIGM.
yet the stock moves up.
i should note i sold it for a small loss after last quarters gap down after earnings.
Hmmmm.... GIGM on the naked short list and it is up. VPHM off the naked short list and it is down. I have to say that if there is a connection i really like it. Bloody tired of seeing people manipulate share prices.
Long term I am however still a fundamentalist and GIGM have to back up the increase today with some solid growth of their online gaming segment in Q2. I am concerned as Q2 is a seasonal weak quarter and they might disappoint. I think I will wait this one out.
Q2 report expected September 8 BMO. Anyone going to play this and jump in before earnings? Last report I held way too long and lost. The day before the last report was a nice gainer, then a big red stick! There are only a few trading days before the next report.
Updated chart shows an uptrend from the $1.82 low of late July. Volume is low.
GigaMedia to Report Second-Quarter 2005 Financial Results on September 8
Thursday September 1, 4:01 am ET
TAIPEI, Taiwan, Sept. 1 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited (''GigaMedia'' or the ''Company'') (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) will report the Company's second-quarter 2005 financial results on Thursday, September 8, 2005 before the market opens.
Management will hold an investor webcast on September 8, 2005 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, which is 8:30 p.m. Taipei/Hong Kong Time on September 8, 2005, to discuss the Company's second-quarter performance.
i wont touch it.
that means u should buy and it will go up. ;D
i was very disappointed by their last earnings and i was in big.
i lost about 5% on it.
but days before i was up big as it climbed each day.
i should have sold and now i wonder why i went thru earnings with shares.
i was just so convinced they would do 3 cents+
this quarter i expect 1 cent a share in earnings but of course they could lose $.
maybe they will announce they sold the music division or something good. who knows.
there is too little visibility on GIGM for me.
-rocket8
Quote from: Melf Elf on August 09, 2005, 03:34:45 AM
[As the chart stands, I think it's likely that we'll see 1.62-1.70.
Still looks that way. Since then, GIGM traded in the Bear Channel and finally broke it to the downside on August 31. Bearish.
GIGM closed at 2.04. If it can close above 2.14, I'd be neutral on it:
1. GIGM now has to chase the bottom of the broken Bear Channel, and try to close back inside it. The channel rises one penny a day. It's at 2.10 today, September 2. It will be at
2.14 on September 8, when earnings are released.
2. The last high on August 25 was
2.14.
3. The 50DMA, which has rolled over to the downside, also is
2.14.
I agree with both Melf and Daniel. I am not going to buy up to the earnings. This quarter is normally weak for online gaming (and I guess records sales as well) and even though they might perform in the broadband business I am afraid the market will be disappointed.
I will however be ready to buy if they come out with a positive earnings surprise or if it drops to a level where it is fundamantally attractive after the earnings.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 02, 2005, 05:21:36 AM
GIGM closed at 2.04. If it can close above 2.14, I'd be neutral on it:
1. GIGM now has to chase the bottom of the broken Bear Channel, and try to close back inside it. The channel rises one penny a day. It's at 2.10 today, September 2. It will be at 2.14 on September 8, when earnings are released.
2. The last high on August 25 was 2.14.
3. The 50DMA, which has rolled over to the downside, also is 2.14.
Earnings were released this morning. GIGM reported net income up 119% year over year, and a 20% increase in net income over last quarter.
Not good enough, evidently. The high of the day was
2.14 at the open, validating it as resistance, then the stock faded.
GIGM currently is BID 2.03...ASK...2.04.
Quote from: Melf Elf on August 09, 2005, 03:34:45 AM
1.62 currently is the up trendline from the big Symmetrical Triangle (dark blue up trendline). 1.70 is the 200 DMA, so I think we'll see 1.62-1.70 on a break.
After hitting a brick wall at that 2.14 triple resistance mentioned above when earnings were reported, we've come down to the 1.62-1.70 zone, printing 1.65 today.
Unfortunately, GIGM also has broken the up trendline off the August, 2004 low, so this might not be the bottom. On watch list.
The reason for picking GIGM is the following:
On Sept. 29 / GigaMedia Limited announced the sale of all of its ownership interest in its land-based music distribution business to Nextbase International Limited, a company organized and existing under the laws of the British Virgin Islands. The sale was in effect immediately. The total sale price for GigaMedia's stake was US$5.15 million. The Company expects to record a one-time gain related to the transaction which will be mostly offset by operating losses in the music distribution business in the third quarter, resulting in a small aggregate net income contribution to GigaMedia of approximately US$130 thousand during the period. The sale will also increase GigaMedia's cash and cash equivalent balances. ''The music retail business was a legacy of the old Giga, a non-core operation,'' explained GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. ''The cornerstone of the new Giga is the high-growth online entertainment sector." ''Disposal of the land-based music retail business will free management resources to accelerate core business growth and the pace of strategic acquisitions,'' stated CEO Wang. GigaMedia acquired its 58.58% ownership in the music distribution business in 2002 as part of a diversification strategy of the old management team.
GigaMedia Limited announced on September 8/05 its fifth consecutive quarter of profitability, with second-quarter 2005 consolidated net income of $1.2 million, up 119 percent from the same period of 2004 and an increase of 20 percent over the first quarter of 2005. The increase in the Company's consolidated net profit was driven by strong performance in GigaMedia's entertainment software business, but limited by a loss in the Company's music distribution unit, which faced continuing operating pressures.
''The second quarter was solid: we delivered good earnings growth despite substantial losses in our music distribution business,'' stated Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. ''Moreover, we strengthened the foundation of the new GigaMedia: investing in our online entertainment software business, releasing new products and scaling up our platform.'' GigaMedia is a diversified provider of broadband and entertainment services, with headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan. Giga Media is a holding company and through several subsidiaries distributes recorded music, provide broadband Internet access, and develop software for online entertainment services, including online gaming and social networking.
Giga's core retail music business is operated through the subsidiary G-Music Limited, or G-Music. Through G-Music Giga operates Taiwan's two largest music store chains, Rose Records and Tachung Records. As of September 30, 2004, we operated a total of 46 stores. Our estimated market share of the physical retail music distribution industry in Taiwan in 2003 was between 35% and 45%.
IMO GIGM is now be able to focus on the PROFITABLE areas provide broadband Internet access, and develop software for online entertainment services, including online gaming and social networking.
Last earnings:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050908/hkth001.html?.v=19
Estimated profit for this year is 0.08 $; with the focus on Software development (profit 1.4 Mio $) and Internet access (0.9 Mio $ profit I will estimate 0.16$ for 2006.
From TA point of view, GIGM should be also be positiv, EMA (9) has crossed the EMA (20) & (50); EMA (20) wil corssing EMA(50) soon (1.87 vs.1.88$)
Last GIGM stock price was at the top of the Bollinger Bands.
GIGM: Volume Spike; 16% > 20-adsv, Stock +2.36%
Tuesday , November 08, 2005 09:50 ET
This is the 4th VOLUME alert for GIGM in the past 7 calendar days.
Trading for GigaMedia Limited (NASDAQ NM: GIGM) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 09:50 ET, the stock had already traded 220,400 shares via 36 trades. The cumulative volume is 16.48% above its 20-day average of 189,209. Normally the stock experiences around 107 individual trades per session.
So far, today's volume surge has caused a net rise in GIGM's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $2.170, up $0.050 (+2.36%).
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $1.360. The price has gained more than 59 percent since then.
Over the last 10 trading session GIGM has traded in a range between $1.750 and $2.150 and is currently trading 22.22% below its 52-week high of $2.790 set on July 08,2005 and 69.53% above its 52-week low of $1.280 from March 30,2005.
In the previous 3 sessions, GIGM trading has displayed a mixed trend. Closing results have been as follows:
November 07, 2005 --- closed at $2.120 up $0.080 (+3.92%) on 510,500 shares
November 04, 2005 --- closed at $2.040 up $0.050 (+2.51%) on 215,000 shares
November 03, 2005 --- closed at $1.990 down $0.020 (-0.99%) on 475,400 shares
The Company last released news on September 29, 2005:
"GigaMedia Sells Land-Based Music Retail Business; One-Time Gain Expected"
GIGAMEDIA LIMITED
GigaMedia Limited is a diversified provider of entertainment services in Taiwan. The company's online/offline business model provides the company multiple distribution channels, deep customer relationships and the ability to meet future market demands as technology drives new media and entertainment industry change.
;D
updated chart:
Seeing action in the pre-market.
+25.00%........Volume @........210,060
Seeing some action in the pre-market.
+21.70%..........Volume @........353,245
Thursday , November 17, 2005 09:45 ET
This is the 1st VOLUME alert for GIGM in the past 7 calendar days.
Trading for GigaMedia Limited (NASDAQ NM: GIGM) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 09:45 ET, the stock had already traded 736,900 shares via 23 trades. The cumulative volume is 153.60% above its 20-day average of 290,578. Normally the stock experiences around 143 individual trades per session.
So far, today's volume surge has caused a net rise in GIGM's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $2.450, up $0.330 (+15.57%).
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $1.510. The price has gained more than 62 percent since then.
Over the last 10 trading session GIGM has traded in a range between $1.988 and $2.280 and is currently trading 12.19% below its 52-week high of $2.790 set on July 08,2005 and 91.41% above its 52-week low of $1.280 from March 30,2005.
In the previous 3 sessions, GIGM trading has displayed a mixed trend. Closing results have been as follows:
November 16, 2005 --- closed at $2.120 down $0.040 (-1.85%) on 404,800 shares
November 15, 2005 --- closed at $2.160 down $0.100 (-4.42%) on 375,600 shares
November 14, 2005 --- closed at $2.260 up $0.020 (+0.89%) on 280,800 shares
The Company last released news on November 17, 2005 (today):
"GigaMedia Q3 Net Profit Up 150%: Best-Ever Quarter"
Rock on ! 8)
[audio] GigaMedia Limited Earnings Conference Call (recorded earlier today)
• StockMarketNewsAlert.com Introduces GigaMedia Limited
PrimeZone Media Network (Thu 9:53am)
• GigaMedia Posts Higher 3Q Net Income
AP (Thu 8:58am)
• GigaMedia Limited Earnings Call scheduled for 8:30 am ET today
CCBN (Thu 8:30am)
• GigaMedia Q3 Net Profit Up 150%: Best-Ever Quarter
PR Newswire (Thu 7:28am)
• Q3 2005 GigaMedia Limited Earnings Release - 08:30 am ET
CCBN (Thu 7:07am)
• GigaMedia to Report Third-Quarter 2005 Financial Results on November 17
PR Newswire (Thu, Nov 10)
Link to all this news: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=GIGM
Very good la-onda .... ;)
Link to all this good news.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=GIGM
whose watching this oldie?
lol.
hey michael. 2.69 today. lol.
Conference Call Transcript:
http://ir.giga.net.tw/Files/2005/11/3Q05Script-final.pdf
please read carefully ;)
TA Link:
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=GIGM&num1=3&cobrand=&mode=stock
please read carefully the CC Transcript Link posted before,interesting news IMO :-*
updated charts:
GIGM: Short Interest DN 65.6% to 12.0K in Nov 2005
Friday , November 25, 2005 13:18 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 65.6% to 12,014 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.
SYMBOL OCTOBER NOVEMBER CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
GIGM 34,919 12,014 -22,905 -65.59% 1
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 737,178, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
updated chart:
hi,
like the looks of gigm , i think it would have posted a bullish engulfing pattern if it wasn't a short day on friday. this might have chance of breaking out above 2.79 with some more volume . profitable quater with a new aquistion coming. might be worth a trading plan.
maxi
nice volume to get the day started on this one...thinking about getting in...i noticed from earlier posts that $3.79 is like the real resistance...lots of upside after that??
any thoughts old-timers, on this one??
thanks! :)
Looking forward based on Q4 outlook ;)
updated chart:
consolidation around 2.5$ :)
cc statement quotation from my link posted before:
"Fourth, strategic acquisitions. The management team is currently conducting due diligence in respect of a very interesting acquisition opportunity in the online entertainment sector. If successful, management believes the acquisition will accelerate top and bottomline growth in the short term and create significant long-term opportunities. We are excited about the opportunity and hope to announce a definitive deal within a few weeks."
links:
http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnly.dll?cus=0&co=ask&i_chart=0&inm=5&ind=2&idx_sym=&sb=gigm&cn=us&size=1&ind2=-3&inm2=-1&ty=2&sca=1&chk_mov=on&mov1=10&mov2=20&mov3=50&chk_boll=on&boll=20&lin=0&chk_vol=on&chk_obv=on&chk_rsi=on&rsi=8&chk_sto=on&sto1=15&sto2=5&sto3=5&wil=12&chk_macd=on&macd1=12&macd2=25&macd3=9&roc1=16&roc2=8&chk_mfi=on&mfi=14&chk_rsc=on&rsc_sym=INX&ref_rate=180
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?gigm
hi,
looks good . seems to be holding at 2.50 and gradually climbing . wondering if you think there will be some reteacement before any more move up.?
volume is ok but i would like to see more interest in this stock.
it didn't come back to close the gap it made after earnings so this move could be for real! wouldn't that be something,
here is a chart
maxi
good luck
will it be enough for the 2nd ord 3rd pace of the contest ???
lol
8) ;D
cheers
Oliver
updated chart:
Today GIGM was caught up on my technical filter (only today? ::)) and I've been reading the latest news and quarterly results and the company seems to be truly undervalued.
The first thing that jumped to my attention was the cash level: $55.7M with no debt, and the market cap is just $135.43M.
This means 41% of the stock price, or $1.1, is cash :o
On the 3rd quarter in comparison to the same period last year, revenue growth was 44% and net earnings growth was 150%.
You can read full results here: GigaMedia Q3 Net Profit Up 150%: Best-Ever Quarter (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BBE7554C2%2D185D%2D41DB%2DB6BA%2D22F52B37017F%7D)
Technically the chart is pretty erratic, I can't take any conclusions out of it, just that it has been rising, and that's good enough for me.
This was a previous 3 Stocks on Fire pick and I remember that Michael owns this stock (or at least he used to own), so you know it is fundamentally attractive :)
I'll buy GIGM for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio around today's open, 6.66% of capital as always.
please read GIGM updates:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=604.75
more important (a must read 8) ):
Conference Call Transcript:
http://ir.giga.net.tw/Files/2005/11/3Q05Script-final.pdf
GIGM: New 52-Wk High @ $2.830 up 12.75%
Monday , December 05, 2005 11:05 ET
This is the 1st 52 WEEK HIGH alert for GIGM in the past 7 calendar days.
The share price for GigaMedia Limited (NASDAQ NM: GIGM) reached a new 52-week high today, trading at $2.830, up $0.320 (12.75%) from its previous close of $2.510.
The Company's previous 52-week high of $2.790 was set 150 days ago on July 08, 2005.
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $1.990. The price has climbed more than 42 percent since then.
At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 1,437,900 shares via 510 trades, 90.81% above it's 20day average of 753,560 shares.
This new 52-week high currently puts the stock:
21.85% above its 20day Moving Average of $2.322
40.00% above its 50day Moving Average of $2.021
39.41% above its 100day Moving Average of $2.030
The Company last released news on November 17, 2005:
"GigaMedia Q3 Net Profit Up 150%: Best-Ever Quarter"
GIGAMEDIA LIMITED
GigaMedia Limited is a diversified provider of entertainment services in Taiwan. The company's online/offline business model provides the company multiple distribution channels, deep customer relationships and the ability to meet future market demands as technology drives new media and entertainment industry change.
in @ 2.13$ >:D
cheers
Oliver
in at 2.13? surely that was not this week?
May be HOMS is a better choice. Very hot!!
This is what had me holding my shares:
From the CC transcript:
----------------------
Fourth, strategic acquisitions. The management team is currently conducting due diligence in respect of a very interesting acquisition opportunity in the online entertainment sector. If successful, management believes the acquisition will accelerate top and bottom-line growth in the short term and create significant long-term opportunities. We are excited about the opportunity and hope to announce a definitive deal within a few weeks.
In sum, we are excited and very pleased with our business momentum. We have now recorded six consecutive quarters of net profit, and we are only beginning to see returns on our restructuring and the investments made in our growth platform
Quote from: puenthouse on December 06, 2005, 11:20:58 AM
in at 2.13? surely that was not this week?
just started my investment after the first competition ;D
Thanks for the links la-onda, GIGM looks to be a fantastic pick :D (well, for now I'm losing 0.74%, but not worried about it).
Just the fact that 41% of the current market value is cash in the company tells me this stock is way undervalued. If we also consider the existing growth of net earnings (150% from the same period in 2004), the stability of earnings (6 consecutive profitable quarters), the seasonal pick up (the 3rd quarter is seasonally the worst for online gaming, the strong season is yet to come for the new services the company has) and the fact that this is just the start for some of the company's business, we know GIGM has the potential to be a multiple bagger.
Probably the stock is this cheap because, after the tech bubble, everybody thought this was one of those that wouldn't survive, and it takes time to build confidence after this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11068;image)
But if GIGM is able to take out $3.70, everybody will notice it and then the ski is the limit:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11069;image)
I own GIGM just since yesterday but I feel comfortable enough at this point to say this is already a long term holding of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
GIGM is a seriously undervalued growth company as you can see on the rest of this thread and I'll continue holding it for the long term.
The more companies I see and I check the fundamentals the more I know GIGM is a true bargain.
EPS for the 3rd quarter were $0.034 per share. If we annualize this we get $0.136 in earnings per share, assuming no growth (and it's obvious there will be growth).
At current $2.69 stock price the earnings multiple is 19.78, where as growth in earnings from 2004 is 150%. If we also take into account the company has $1.1 a share in cash, we get to the simple conclusion that GIGM offers limited risk and huge upside potential.
I'll continue holding for the long term.
David
I think that "not so strong " stock performance of GIGM is due to slow revenews growth.
For instance Q2 was slower than Q1.
May be I'm wrong.. :)
Best,
Vova
Bought it today on pull-back ($2.60) exactly at its 10-DAY EMA
See chart
I'm with you Shawfund (2.62). Looks like a decent day to buy some of our stocks.
Quote from: voova99 on December 09, 2005, 11:31:22 AM
David
I think that "not so strong " stock performance of GIGM is due to slow revenews growth.
For instance Q2 was slower than Q1.
May be I'm wrong.. :)
Best,
Vova
Yes, that's true, I held the stock when that earnings report came out and sold at a small loss. I believe that's because the company is changing from one sector to another, discontinuing low profit operations and investing in high growth operations like, for example, online gaming.
I read a current bullish comment from Michael about GIGM, but I can't find it at this point. I remember he said he liked the stock at this point, but unfortunately he missed the train. Probably he will buy on dips, like many value and growth investors, because GIGM is quite a unique growth story.
I'll continue holding for the long term.
Nothing new for GIGM today, both in technical and fundamental terms. I'll continue holding for the long term.
Nothing new on GIGM, the stock came down to support again and maybe it will close the gap at $2.51. I maintain my previous analysis:
Quote from: David Randolph on December 09, 2005, 07:46:10 AM
EPS for the 3rd quarter were $0.034 per share. If we annualize this we get $0.136 in earnings per share, assuming no growth (and it's obvious there will be growth).
At current $2.69 stock price the earnings multiple is 19.78, where as growth in earnings from 2004 is 150%. If we also take into account the company has $1.1 a share in cash, we get to the simple conclusion that GIGM offers limited risk and huge upside potential.
I'll continue holding for the long term.
Bought it this morning the second time at $2.52 the previous high.
QuoteNothing new on GIGM, the stock came down to support again and maybe it will close the gap at $2.51.
Well, it came down to close that gap and ended with a doji candlestick, which shows indecision. Indecision is welcome when breaking down an ascending trendline, because traders are really not sure about what they're doing.
I wish GIGM published 10-K reports. Anyway, I know this company's business and I believe it will thrive. I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
«Fourth, strategic acquisitions. The management team is currently conducting due diligence in respect of a very interesting acquisition opportunity in the online entertainment sector. If successful, management believes the acquisition will accelerate top and bottom-line growth in the short term and create significant long-term opportunities. We are excited about the opportunity and hope to announce a definitive deal within a few weeks.»
And they did it:
GigaMedia to Hold Investor Conference Call on December 19 to Discuss Acquisition of FunTown (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=168006&guid=%7B90191E23%2D5E7E%2D4CA1%2D8841%2D055228C3DFAB%7D&symb=)
Let's watch the webcast to know what impact will this acquisition have on top and bottom line and how much did it it cost.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
UP 18%.... News out!!
GigaMedia Buys World No. 1 Mahjong Site and Leading Asian Game Portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051219/lnm007.html?.v=3
David
May you look at CDV? That company under heavy accumulation last month!
revenues are growing and Cap is only 32M. :o
Best,
Vova
Quote from: voova99 on December 19, 2005, 01:21:32 PM
David
May you look at CDV? That company under heavy accumulation last month!
revenues are growing and Cap is only 32M. :o
Best,
Vova
It looks interesting Vova, both from a technical and fundamental perspective. If the company could increase their net margin to between 5 and 10% it could move up 10 fold from current levels. Net margin is the key here, did management said something about it on the last conference call or the last 10-Q report?
Thanks Vova ! (I sent you a private message, if you can say something about this before 8 AM I might consider it to buy for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (though average volume is kind of low).
Going to our dear GIGM now. It deliver what it promised, what looks to be an outstanding acquisition:
GigaMedia Buys World No. 1 Mahjong Site and Leading Asian Game Portal (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=168006&guid=%7B62CDB954%2D5BEC%2D441A%2DB9F0%2D1BD06AB55A2D%7D&symb=)
(please read the text for full details)
From this operation GIGM expects to increase its net income by $6.375M in 2006. Net income for GIGM in 2004 was $1M, and in 2005 about $4M, so you see there will be substantial EPS growth coming out of this transaction.
Price ($45M) seems ok and and they will request just $15M from investors. Dilution may not even occur, because GIGM did this: «Early redemption: Right to call the Note within the first 12 months from closing at a 5 percent annualized interest rate»
If everything goes as planned, I see GIGM with an earnings multiple of 10 for 2006. P/E of 10 and expected earnings growth of at least 50% year on year isn't right.
I think GIGM is severely undervalued in a fast growing industry, therefore I'll continue holding the stock for the long term.
$3.7 is the next target, and above that the sky is the limit.
David
"GigaMedia anticipates 20 percent to 30 percent growth in FunTown's business in 2006"
4mil. subscribers can't give faster growth?
Is that enough 20% in "fast growing online game industry"? ???
May be WS waited for more substantial perspective.. >:(
Best,
Vova
A little optimism after my last post :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3403605.stm
Thanks for info voova99 :)
Quote from: voova99 on December 22, 2005, 01:42:02 AM
David
"GigaMedia anticipates 20 percent to 30 percent growth in FunTown's business in 2006"
4mil. subscribers can't give faster growth?
Is that enough 20% in "fast growing online game industry"? ???
May be WS waited for more substantial perspective.. >:(
Best,
Vova
It is better to be modest and then surprise on the upside than to promise the sky and then fail to deliver. I think the last two days fall in the stock price wasn't anything more than profit taking after the acquisition news.
The stock yesterday touched its support at $2.79. I believe, as it is said in the article, that online gaming will grow exponentially over 5 years to come, and no worlwide economic slowdown is going to change that.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
David, no disrespect here, but what is long term? if this drops to 1.40 are you going to sell for a small loss and buy at .80 cents? 5 years is a long time and wont go up the whole way. I wish i could afford to only have 6% in this stock but i have so much more. And im not obligated to you. I will do my own thing. I do not blame you for a stock going up or down or selling. Just would like to understand. What does David long term mean?
I thought TRAD and BRVO were long term too. Maybe just say it has "long term potential".
wonderful, isn´t it??
Anybody
Help me to understand
In China online gambling is forbidden!!! But GIGM offer us "play for pay" ?!
I'm confused .. >:(
Best,
Vova
10 slides detailed presentation about the Funtown deal:
http://ir.giga.net.tw/downloads/conference/Funtown%20Script-Final.pdf
>:D
merry christmas!
Oliver
Everything is OK with GIGM, BUT I'm realy scared about GIGM business
and American law :
http://news.com.com/Wall+Street+bets+on+Web+gambling/2100-1026_3-6008083.html?part=rss&tag=6008083&subj=news
??? ???
Not all stocks decline in Bear Markets, and if there's one that will see continuing growth despite of a global economic slowdown, that is GIGM.
Online gaming and gambling is just starting and gambling is a flourishing industry when bad economic times arrive.
Therefore I'll continue holding GIGM on good and bad times (for as long as the company doesn't do something stupid to harm us, loyal shareholders, selling shares in the open market to finance operations, for example).
I'm interested to see how GIGM's chart pans out over the next couple weeks. Support looks to be building at the prior peak of 2.79.
Though a bearish divergence is forming in the current uptrend, In my studying of MACD-histogram divergences i find it to be a fairly reliable signal. Notice the bullish divergence that occurred just before this uptrend began.
-As well when a divergence goes in the opposite direction of its intended signal, It means that the bulls or bear are especially strong. Such as if this uptrend continues on this bearish divergence.
Good luck to everyone holding.
QuoteAs well when a divergence goes in the opposite direction of its intended signal, It means that the bulls or bear are especially strong. Such as if this uptrend continues on this bearish divergence.
Never thought of that fousc, thanks :)
Yes, GIGM did well on the last trading day of the year, reacting positively to the $2.79 support level. If there is a niche market that does go up on not so good economic times it is gambling.
I'm very pleased to own GIGM and I'll continue holding it for the long term (my only fear is that the company starts selling shares in the open market, as so many Chinese companies do, but until now GIGM's management seems to be interested in building shareholder value).
Good move today. I loaded up on this between X-mas and New Years on low volume. If this can hold gains and add to that gain I will pyramid on it`s way up. It closed above conversion price of $3.13 that is a good sign.
Closing firstly above $3 and then the $3.13 conversion price is very bullish. GIGM kept hitting $3 all day until late day volume kicked in to push breakout (see inrtaday chart below).
Ascending channel on daily chart likely shows where aggresive trader might want to take profit (around $3.40 area) and then wait for pull back re-entry at blue support line.
Good Luck
The news was:
QuoteGigaMedia's US$45 million acquisition of FunTown included a US$15 million convertible note issued by GigaMedia with a conversion price related to the GigaMedia share price before closing; the conversion price has now been set at US$3.13 per share. FunTown's financial performance will be reflected in GigaMedia's consolidated financial statements beginning the First Quarter 2006.
This means the note is convertible to common shares at a $3.13, that is, the company issued about $15,000,000/$3.13 = 4,792,332 new shares. Previously the number of shares outstanding was 50.34M, so this is just a 9.52% increase in the number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis.
The stock closed above the conversion price yesterday, and if GIGM keeps on climbing it's possible that the company redeems this note, buying it back with just 5% interest ;) (it has 12 months to do that).
I believe GIGM's fundamentals will continue to improve significantly in a good or not so good economic environment, as will the share price.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM still a bullish stock ;)
--- Nice to see those prices still above the 13 day EMA, maybe tomorrow will pullback a little again then shoots up ;) :D
I agree Terlisa, profit taking followed a small gap up, normal market behaviour. I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
I think this is going to be the first winner of 2006!! :D :D :D
Thanks, David and keep up the good work!
Sold about 1/2 position at the close. I was overweight in this one. Glad I got a nice chunk of profit to start off the new year.
77% from my first buying >:D >:D >:D
nice start for trading year 2006
Quote from: la-onda on November 17, 2005, 09:43:08 AM
awesome results >:D >:D
I have bought in @ 2.13$ ;D
77% yet, nice start for 2006 >:D >:D >:D
Quote from: la-onda on January 06, 2006, 04:55:05 PM
Quote from: la-onda on November 17, 2005, 09:43:08 AM
awesome results >:D >:D
I have bought in @ 2.13$ ;D
77% yet, nice start for 2006 >:D >:D >:D
This one has been nice to have also.
Must give Michael credit where credit is due...Applaud once again for the pick ! ;)
Nice volume today...
Volume: 3,067,123
Avg Vol (3m): 688,106
It is up some in the after hours also....
GIGAMEDIA LTD (NasdaqNM:GIGM) Delayed quote data
After Hours (RT-ECN): 3.86 0.06 (1.58%)
Looks like it has taken over 1st place in The Stock Picking Contest.
nice yahoo board GIGM estimation >:D
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600640698&tid=gigm&sid=1600640698&mid=79696
GIGM closed above $3.70 on Friday, it would be nice if the stock could hold that level today and remain at a new 5 year high :)
David,
Have you considered having a "Long Term Portfolio"? You could have one portfolio for "traders" with short term Fast type picks that would continue the original spirit of 3SOF and maybe another for those of us looking for more longterm stocks. There are several stocks that I thought of as long term picks (HANS, AAPL, AMD, etc.) that I sold when I had a nice profit only to see them explode upwards after. You even have some stocks that you also considered long term picks, sold them and watched as they moved up (TRAD, BRVO, MESA, etc.).
You have done an excellent job with the portfolio earnings but we understand that you are learning the game just like us. I look forward to your new ideas and hope you will give more thought to the long term stocks idea.
Glenn
Quote from: David Randolph on January 10, 2006, 04:27:48 PM
The more I study the stock market the more I get convinced the big money is made on long term plays. It is a plain mathematical thing, tell me what you think of this theory:
I believe this was one of the messages in your favorite book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator". bucket shop trading is just for small time players.
Also it will be great if 3SOF can start pyramiding on these types of long term plays. I think that's the other message from Livermore. Pyramiding and long term plays should go hand in hand.
Quote from: basonista on January 10, 2006, 04:42:37 PM
David,
Have you considered having a "Long Term Portfolio"? You could have one portfolio for "traders" with short term Fast type picks that would continue the original spirit of 3SOF and maybe another for those of us looking for more longterm stocks. There are several stocks that I thought of as long term picks (HANS, AAPL, AMD, etc.) that I sold when I had a nice profit only to see them explode upwards after. You even have some stocks that you also considered long term picks, sold them and watched as they moved up (TRAD, BRVO, MESA, etc.).
You have done an excellent job with the portfolio earnings but we understand that you are learning the game just like us. I look forward to your new ideas and hope you will give more thought to the long term stocks idea.
Glenn
A long term portfolio can be a good idea, but I wonder if a trade should be started without a long term horizon. That is a stock trade, or investment. I have to study this idea a bit more.
You see, I'm a very experienced futures trader, especially day trading futures. I'm not new to stocks (I started trading stocks in 1995) but the best part of my trading carrier was in the futures markets. You can call futures the bucket shops of our time, as netfishmademerich recalls Livermore ... the more I learn about stocks the more I feel there is to learn, and I'm absolutely thrilled with this experience.
You know what I'm finding too? Short and long term moves are more predictable than intermediate term moves. Possibly I can be a good day trader. I can also be a good long term investor. But looking for intermediate term moves has no «scientific» background. It looks more of a gamble.
Quote from: netfishmademerich on January 10, 2006, 04:43:53 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on January 10, 2006, 04:27:48 PM
The more I study the stock market the more I get convinced the big money is made on long term plays. It is a plain mathematical thing, tell me what you think of this theory:
I believe this was one of the messages in your favorite book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator". bucket shop trading is just for small time players.
Also it will be great if 3SOF can start pyramiding on these types of long term plays. I think that's the other message from Livermore. Pyramiding and long term plays should go hand in hand.
There's one thing you got learn about Livermore, the man was a genius, but he missed one part of the trading game, probably the most important of all: money management.
That is why he filled for bankruptcy 4 times before he commited suicide :'(
Pyramiding would break my simple money management rule of not putting more than a fixed percentage of capital in just one trade. Probably I will never be as rich as Livermore once was. But I won't file for bankrupcty either.
Anyway, I feel a bit like Livermore when he first came to New York, you know? This is a whole different game from making 20 points a day trading the DAX futures ;D
I trust on hard work and knowledge to master the stock market game. But I know I'm still learning like everybody else here, and probably I'll be learning forever.
I'm fortunate you joined me on this pursuit of stock market knowledge, and profits :)
I agree long term positions are where the multi baggers are made and by long term I mean months to years. I am currently trying to have more longer term holds in my portfolio, but they require a more fundamental approach, they require a wider loss tolerance and probably a bigger position size as you want to focus in on a few real A+ candidates and know them inside out.
I know a trader here in Australia who trades only in 3 or 4 stocks (Australian, banks mainly) and only trades a handful of times in a month. He has made fantastic returns. Mark Crisp a UK trader with a subscription trading system advocates also only a handful of trades a year, with large position sizes to catch the big movers. He is also very succesful. Buffet as well (the long term king I guess) comes from the less is more approach, fewer trades, bigger positions. Obviously all the above practice good money management within their own systems (Livermore's weakness as David pointed out).
This is a good topic for the members board and not the GIGM board, there is a lot more I could say which I may do on a new thread there.
The man who bought GIGM yesterday by the close made 11% today. But I made 16% more from my buying point. This is why one should favor long term investing over short term, what seems so hard now can be peanuts if you hold a stock for a big rise.
Selcting the right ones to hold for the long term is the problem, since most picks will fail. Anyway, I'll continue studying to find the right conditions that favor a big long term rise.
GIGM seems to be that kind of stock. Still a small cap with extremely strong growth, high margins and a business model that, I have little doubts, will produce huge profits.
Now, there are risks, mainly regulation of the online gambling industry and competition. I have to keep monitoring these issues, but for now, nothing prevents GIGM to be a 20 to 30 bagger in 3 to 5 years time.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
All i can say is GIGM is a great pick (applaud David) ;)
Indeed a red hot pick.
Now I offer this chart more out of my own curiosity, as I always like to look back in history of a stock to see if there are any 'interesting' movements which could possibly give some indication of current moves. Hey this is really just out of interest and not really a guide to what could happen....but you know the stock market has a knack of repeating previous patterns / activities.
Anyway onto the chart, David showed some all history chart on GIGM. This focuses on the period of a 7 month window in 2000, weekly chart, GIGM was in full meltdown. Bear in mind GIGM now sits at $4.39.....
Now that would be nice.
Yes, Aussie, that would be great :)
I believe GIGM will rise over the long term, in good or bad economic conditions. This is why I feel I can/should continue holding it for the long term, despite the short term volatility on the stock price.
GIGM had pulled back for two days, it has a support at $4 last trading day.
I am looking for a good entry point now. Any comment? Thanks.
GIGM will soon stand at the new Long Term on Fire Portfolio (Ramsburg is already building it), but I'll continue holding it on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio until I think it is a short term sell.
At this particular moment I see no reason to sell after this «normal» pullback due to quite «normal» profit taking.
(thanks for posting those highlights la-onda :))
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
I don't know what price of GIGM will be tomorrow, but after you read the following
it will give you a hint :o
Best,
Vova
Ooops, here is the link
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B44BAA144%2DF12C%2D43A1%2D8905%2DFDD5372F3E3B%7D
Hello Forum..I am a new memeber to the 3SOF community and eager to be involved. Not a extensive investing background and am learning, so no gospel from me and actually like expert TA folks to confrim comments I make.
I'm looking for a buy point into GIGM for swing and long term, and if there is a signifiacnt decline ( 20% or more in the near future) , I would wait for that correction to occur.
The TA for GIGM at the present coudl be indiating a correction of the magnitute is possible.
Weekly chart: RSI is overbought (>70), however the MACD is still headed up.
Daily chart: RSI headed down and at 70. MACD peaked Midweek is down Friday with a good drop. Slow Stochastics has turned down for a number of days, at 80 now and signlal line crossed.
So, i think that it is likely that a decline to the 10 ema at 3.72 will occur and then to the 20 ema at 3.37 if to 10 ema does not hold.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GIGM,uu[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pc10!c20][vc60][iUah12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G
What do you all think?
latetrader
What do you prefer to buy? good stock on higher price or bad stock on low price?
Good stock isn't dropping, just has a little pullback. I don't think it will be lower than 3.7 .
Best,
Vova
Quote from: voova99 on January 16, 2006, 10:41:03 AM
latetrader
What do you prefer to buy? good stock on higher price or bad stock on low price?
Good stock isn't dropping, just has a little pullback. I don't think it will be lower than 3.7 .
Best,
Vova
Vova...a good stock at great price would be ideal. :D More shares can be bought using the x% of the portfolio approach. So, anyway..it also looks like your think a pullback to the 10 ema is reasonanbly possible? which represent about a furthur 8% from where it is today. I'll watch this closely and see where the stock boucnes off support at..then jump in. ;D
thank you
Bud
QuoteVova...a good stock at great price would be ideal. Cheesy More shares can be bought using the x% of the portfolio approach. So, anyway..it also looks like your think a pullback to the 10 ema is reasonably possible? which represent about a further 8% from where it is today. I'll watch this closely and see where the stock bounce off support at..then jump in. Grin
thank you
Bud
Hello Bud, you're welcome :)
I hope you thought today's open was an attractive point to buy GIGM ;) I wouldn't look so much at momentum indicators, since a truly bullish stock can be overbought for a very long time and continue rising (the inverse is also true, a stock can go down, and down, and down to zero, despite its oversold condition).
One should buy oversold in rising trends and sell overbought in declining trends. The trend is the most important and first issue to consider. Only after, one may look at oversold/overbought indicators, like the RSI, Stochastic, etc.
Tomorrow around the open I'll buy $10,000 of GIGM for the Long Term on Fire Portfolio, as we've discussed before. I will also continue holding the stock on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Hello !
Everybody knows that I love GIGM's fundamentals and prospects. I bought the stock for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio on December 6, 2005, at price $2.72. The stock closed yesterday at $4.45.
After some more analysis I concluded that I want to hold this stock for the long term, say, more than 2 years, if everything goes as planned with its business. I will update this thread with a periodicity of 10 trading days, or when there are significant news or quarterly earnings releases.
I'll buy 10% of the Long Term on Fire Portfolio capital on GIGM around today's open to hold for the long term.
I'll continue holding the stock, from a trading perspective, on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio, for as long as the short/medium term trend remains bullish. Probably, eventually, I will sell the stock on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio in the future but I'll continue holding on the Long Term Portfolio. I wonder which portfolio will do better over the long term ::)
I did not see it go to 4.15.. it was sitting at 4.24 so seemed worth a try but was not expecting such a nice move on slow market day. Super. IVAN also had a nice move today from pre market low and ALTI also and IPIX real nice... just a lot of small caps doing great. I thik TBUS may move like IPIX soon.
The Russell 2000 ended in the green even though some large caps dropped.
After GIGM Nov 17 quarter earning release, the stock has gained >100% ($2.25 -> $4.60).
In most cases, the stock will have a correction once it gained 100% straight up..
It had 5 up-waves during the process. For long term investors, 10-20 correction is nothing.
But it may provide a buying opportunity for later comers.
Quote from: shawFund on January 19, 2006, 03:24:01 PM
After GIGM Nov 17 quarter earning release, the stock has gained >100% ($2.25 -> $4.60).
In most cases, the stock will have a correction once it gained 100% straight up..
It had 5 up-waves during the process. For long term investors, 10-20 correction is nothing.
But it may provide a buying opportunity for later comers.
Hello shawFund :)
Yes, GIGM may have some correction after such a great run, but the stock rose 2.83% on Friday when the general market nearly collapsed. I call this relative strength. There were no news and there's no motive to take profits on GIGM, even on a trading perspective.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
I was looking for GIGM's Fun Town website but I think I couldn't find it, this one seems to belong to somebody else: www.fun-town.com (//http://http:www.fun-town.com)
Probably GIGM's Fun Town is in Chinese language.
From a trading perspective GIGM is holding very well and probably will make another bullish move soon that will make me (http://i.euniverse.com/funpages/cms_content/1065/dancing.gif)
I'll continue holding GIGM on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
David you must be ;D. I couldn't copy your dancing happy face over. Good call this morning!!!!
Up 13%
uc.
Is this the $5.00 effect. I would believe so. :o :o
I must say, I like it so far.
Good move after its huge run since New Year's day.
I was out few days ago on this one together with DIET, AOB.
So I hit two and missed one.
The sites of fun town are
http://www.funtown.com.cn/
http://www.funtown.com.hk/
http://www.funtown.com.tw/ (http://www.funtown.com.tw/)
GIGM has a special place in my heart. This was the first stock I wrote about on 3SOF. I loved the fundamentals and was arguing with David whether 1.8 was a good entry point (or was it 1.9?) Anyhow today David is making a killing on this stock and I am arguing with myself whether 5.3 is a good entry point. Life just isn't fair
GIGM has a great management team (as stated in my first message in this thread!). They have done all the right things and transformed the company from a lackluster record retailer to a potential powerhouse in online gaming (this is the short version).
GIGM has been a great investment for me but it could have been so much better if I had just followed my instincts and hold during the rough times.
As said I am having a serious discussion with myself whether or not to jump in now. The fundamentalist seems to have the upper hand. If I had still been holding the stock today I would probably be thinking about selling. GIGM has according to my valuation reached the potential I saw back in June last year. From now on it is a matter of believing in the vision.
Mike
Wow, sorry about your dilemna - I have done the same thing so many times. I had SNDK when it was $30 and AMD when it was $19... not to mentioned some other 10 baggers (VPHM, TALK etc).
I guess you could wait and see if it goes down tomorrow - it is such a hard call to try to buy in at the lowest point. I know this will keep going up but there may be some profit taking soon. Good luck on your decision! ???
hi Brandy,
Well it is not such a big dilemma when the decission is first taken. For me the test is the next earnings. If the stock is still at above 5 after the release then I will officially declare my love (once again :D)
Mike
Congratulation David and Ramsburg, you guys should be on Forbes cover for making it 200% in less then a year.
Hats off for the double on GIGM.
Thanks usedcasting and stocky, GIGM has been really hot on 3 Stocks on Fire (I wonder why I didn't pick GIGM for the Stock Picking Contest, it wins all the time, if one lets it win :D)
Quote from: metro on January 25, 2006, 01:24:39 PM
The sites of fun town are
http://www.funtown.com.cn/
http://www.funtown.com.hk/
http://www.funtown.com.tw/ (http://www.funtown.com.tw/)
Thanks for the info metro, really Chinese design :) I don't understand a word, but I like what I see, lots of online gambling (still not for money, but GIGM will take care of that soon).
Yesterday's breakout was on volume above average, technically the stock is extremely bullish. I'll let the profits run.
GIGM gave back some of the previous day's gains, nothing to worry about, even from a trading perspective. The proper time to take profits is when the company posts a big revenue and profit jump at the 1st quarter results presentation, due to the Fun Town acquisition and organic growth.
I'm used to see bullish stocks take a hit when they first cross $5, because many people are only allowed to short stocks above that level. Above $5 there is enough selling pressure to push the stock doubt over the short term.
Longer term fundamentals will win and shorts will feel the squeeze the next time the stock crosses $5, which can be as early as this week.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
Profit takers and short sellers couldn't hold GIGM below $5 for long. This is a positive short term development. If they can't keep it below $5 probably they will need to cover all the way up to $8.
I've designed two trendlines to work as guidelines (TL1 and TL2), but I won't use them in a rigorous manner as I did in the past. For now I'll continue holding GIGM, online gambling is growing very fast globally.
Volume on GIGM has decreased sharply over the last 4 trading days. I think that when volume comes back it will be to take GIGM to new highs above $6.
Almost no analysts covering the stock and profile contains only discontinued operations on Market Watch. GIGM has the power to surprise on the upside.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
David,
I'm trying to get a better understanding of your TA, so perhaps you can explain what I'm not considering when I chart GIGM:
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/GIGM2-1-06.jpg)
How do you arrive at $ 4.50 for TL1 support?
I see a stock that has broken it's uptrend line and, given it's ascent from previous trend, could be a good candidate for a bump and run retracement back to $ 3.77 (33% of the high at $5.63) - We both seem to view that range as long range support (My T1 and your TL2)
Thanks.
It's hard to tell how much of the action in the last few days are attributed to Chinese New Year holidays in Taiwan. Althoug this company is only traded in the US and not even listed in Taiwan I suspect much of the volume in GIGM is from institutions based in Taiwan. I believe their New Years holidays is over by Monday. I'd suggest caution if the price/volume does not recover by Monday.
Time to go Short for GIGM for quick profit, say 10-15% ;) :D ;D
Quote from: Terlisa on February 02, 2006, 01:22:06 AM
Time to go Short for GIGM for quick profit, say 10-15% ;) :D ;D
Shorted GIGM @ 4.79.... go down, down GIGM ;)
fyi
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/September2005/22/c3030.html
Watching support levels...
Hey Aussie,
I looked into the ascending channel support like my DIET analysis. It looks alright on GIGM if you have it in log scale like yours above, yet i don't take much pride in log scale as it skews reality. If you look at it in linear scale the ascending support line stands quite a ways farther down around 3.75. Some nice looking support i do see here is the 20 day EMA as it hasn't close below it since this rally began in Nov 05 and has made several touches for verification. Support is also holding up around 4.50. I may look to enter this sometime this week as well.
-fousc
;D Thanks Fous you have reminded me to check the log / linear differences, it is something I have neglected to do for a while, but now I will re-look at my usage as it can have dramatic impact on some charts. I also have the 20ema as a guide(in all my daily charts) so although we are coming from slightly different angles we are using the same principles.
Cheers
Ausie and fousc, nice analysis, guys!
I'd like to add though that sometimes perhaps due to fundamental reasons stocks can follow the exp(t) dependence where log-scale applies. I believe they cannot sustain such growth for a very long time. I do agree linear scale is more realistic in a long run, but I doubt GIGM will re-trace to the linear support level, instead it'll build a new base for the upside, given the fundamentals remain intact.
Cheers.
Quote from: berloga on February 06, 2006, 09:31:29 AM
Ausie and fousc, nice analysis, guys!
I'd like to add though that sometimes perhaps due to fundamental reasons stocks can follow the exp(t) dependence where log-scale applies. I believe they cannot sustain such growth for a very long time. I do agree linear scale is more realistic in a long run, but I doubt GIGM will re-trace to the linear support level, instead it'll build a new base for the upside, given the fundamentals remain intact.
Cheers.
I don't think it will retrace to the linear top channel either Berloga. Hence, why i just joined the party this morning at 4.76 >:D
-fousc
Glad to hear it Fous - After wtching this one for so long, I was in on Fri at 4.75. Let's see the 5's again ;D
Getting nervous on this one. I bought too high in the 4.90s--my own fault of course.
Where does this head when 4.5 breaks?
Quote from: Terlisa on February 02, 2006, 02:19:32 PM
Quote from: Terlisa on February 02, 2006, 01:22:06 AM
Time to go Short for GIGM for quick profit, say 10-15% ;) :D ;D
Shorted GIGM @ 4.79.... go down, down GIGM ;)
Ohh yeah... i will get that 10 percent no matter what ;)
If not... I'll set a Buy to Cover where i shorted it to break it even ;)
No Smiting please, I'm just here for the money ;D
Quote from: Terlisa on February 06, 2006, 02:10:46 PM
No Smiting please, I'm just here for money ;D
No smiting for sure. We are all here to earn a buck or two. I also had the feeling that GIGM was overvalued but I have to say that David made a very strong case for the longs here and Voova's article was also very interesting. Go into any Cansino in the world and you will see Chinese. If you can transform their favorite game into a money making machine you might have a veeeery strong business case.
I am still watching GIGM from a distance but I might be wrong and David might be right. In which case I guess that I have to thank you for keeping the price down ;)
Mike
I added at $4.47
...fighting agaist Terlisa's 10% >:D
Happy trading...Jody
So am I - added at $4.45
Happy trading...to long ;)
I bought GIGM under $2.5 before David did, so I am up a lot but has no plan to sell as it's very much undervalued here and has huge potential for growth.
Using the latest Q's EPS=$0.031 we get $0.145 for the year. Add $0.1 for the new acquisition we have ~$0.25 EPS. With PE=25 we have $6.25, which is 40% over today's closing PPS.
With GIGM's exponetial growth, it will have much more than $0.25 EPS and probably demands PE = 30+.
It also reported earnings mid-November, so it's due for another earning pretty soon. Also remember winter season is typically one of the best for on-line gambling, and the current Q should be very good for Majong with Chinese new year. :-)
Thanks for your analysis, both technical and fundamental, on GIGM :) It's been a long time since the company released its last press release. No problem with that.
Fundamentally valueseeker made some simple math to show that, even on trailing results, GIGM is undervalued (Michael is just bored he let this one go - he can't catch them all ;D).
Technically the stock is trading around support at $4.50. The trend is bullish in all time frames, although the last couple of weeks brought in some profit taking.
As you can see on the chart below, just 1 day can kill all bear activities of the last 8 trading sessions.
I'll continue holding GIGM, both on a short and long term perspective.
Hello - is anyone worried about this. I'm getting slaughtered - is there a bottom?
Should this be sold with a close below $4.50 or are we waiting for a lower support level technically?
OK healthy retracement, 38%. Now a close here and a move up tomorrow.
uc.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 07, 2006, 05:57:25 AM
Fundamentally valueseeker made some simple math to show that, even on trailing results, GIGM is undervalued (Michael is just bored he let this one go - he can't catch them all ;D).
Well It is never to late! GIGM is now cheap based on their existing business even without the potential from Mahjong.
I like the management team. As said before they have done everything right till now so I am on the buying side today. Maybe Terlisa will accept my very generous offer ::)
Mike
Today is probably a good day for buying this stock -- for those that have been waiting on the sidelines (like me), this is a pretty safe entry point.
In at $4.05
Buy low - Sell high.
I told you to short GIGM... did not I? & you keep buying ;)
Quote from: Terlisa on February 06, 2006, 02:10:46 PM
Quote from: Terlisa on February 02, 2006, 02:19:32 PM
Quote from: Terlisa on February 02, 2006, 01:22:06 AM
Time to go Short for GIGM for quick profit, say 10-15% ;) :D ;D
Shorted GIGM @ 4.79.... go down, down GIGM ;)
Ohh yeah... i will get that 10 percent no matter what ;)
If not... I'll set a Buy to Cover where i shorted it to break it even ;)
No Smiting please, I'm just here for the money ;D
Quote from: 422fwhp on February 06, 2006, 03:55:08 PM
I added at $4.47
...fighting agaist Terlisa's 10% >:D
Happy trading...Jody
I'm not that greedy.... bought to cover GIGM @ 4.14..
13.57% PROFITI just stole your money Jody ;).... Right now i'll make a trading plan.. I'll go LONG in GIGM ;) but not now... bears still strong, i have to be patience & wait for the right entry point
That's what trading is all about, stealing money from each other ;) chiao baby!!I'll wait when ADX goes to middle & that's the time i'm gonna go LONG on GIGM ;)
Someone just smited on me.. why you have to do that?.. i'm just sharing my knowledge to all of you guys.. >:( >:(
There is a lot people out there that has deep pockets to make GIGM down, is not me...i'm just following the trend!! Jesus Christ...
I did. I applaud your trade. I smited your table manners. By the way it's the first time I have ever used a smite. Hopefully, it's the last time.
Quote from: Terlisa on February 07, 2006, 02:44:04 PM
Someone just smited on me.. why you have to do that?.. i'm just sharing my knowledge to all of you guys.. >:( >:(
There is a lot people out there that has deep pockets to make GIGM down, is not me...i'm just following the trend!! Jesus Christ...
Applaud Terlisa,
thanks for sharing your knowledge with the rest of 3SOF members. Always good to have different opinions...... ;)
Terlisa,
I appreciate your knowledge and expertise. I would like to follow it more - please keep posting.
I happen to have GIGM and lost alot - I wouldn't mind a little more 'grace...' (if you know what I mean). ;) ;)
Quote from: 1reilly on February 07, 2006, 02:56:15 PM
I did. I applaud your trade. I smited your table manners. By the way it's the first time I have ever used a smite. Hopefully, it's the last time.
Fully agree with 1reilly & brandy: your TA is excellent but don't need to be out of humour. I applaud your permanent good work.
KRgds
jorgegr
Great posts terlisa. keep up the good work. I think the humor/sarcasm is great too
I bought GIGM just 11c above David and was biting my fingers to get out at $5.6, but decided to go "long term". My portfolio is only 10% of David's and that's where taking some cream off would help, compared to his strategy. Had I listened to Terlisa closer, I could have gotten out in time to only return when the time is nigh. I wouldn't have the stomach to short sell (yet they wouldn't let me below $5), but waiting out could be a good idea...
I appreciate your posts Terlisa and your sense of "humor". We are all learning and all constructive opinions are welcome. Don't take yourselves so seriously folks.
To all longs of GIGM,
When you do the analysis on its future growth, do not put China as its growth spot.
1. Gambling is illegal in China
2. There is no way the online gambling can collect money from China even someone in China plays online Marjiang because credit card payment is not available in China, paypal also very limited. Most the money paid for oneline transaction is through post office or banks to their bank accounts.
I can say Marjiang is very very popular in China. Many retirees are playing the games day and night with money changes hand all the time.
Unless China makes it legal and the online gambling can find a way to collect the money, don't count on China for the growth.
As I mentioned it few weeks ago in this thread, GIGM has gone up too quicklyand too far, and is due to have pull back.
If many people know the stock and become too excited, it is time to exit.
I will be joining the longs after we get a touch of the trendline. That might also synch up with the 50 dma soon, which would make it a doubley good place to enter. I think the stock might bounce back up to 4.50 before turning back down and making that touch, at which point the trendline would be in the high 3's or $4. Today GIGM bounced off the bottom Bollinger band, and might make a brief return to the center BB.
Buy order in at $ 3.78 here.
Vaughn, that chart looks eerily familiar
;D
The very first job of a Trader or a Technical Analysis before entering the market is to find out which one is Stronger & which one is Weaker.. is it bulls or bears? it happens to be that bears are stronger on GIGM at this point so i decided to trade on the short side..If that's where i think that i'm going to make a quick buck, then why not?
Who buys from a trader who sells his losing long position?
It may be a short seller taking profits and covering shorts. It may be a bargain hunter who steps in because prices are "too low." That bottom-picker assumes the position of a loser who washed out- and he either catches the bottom or becomes the new loser. Trading for a Living
Who sells to a trader who buys to cover his losing short position?
It may be a savvy investor who takes profits on his long position. It also may be a top-picker who sells short because he thinks that prices are "too high." He assumes the position of a loser who covered his shorts, and only the future will tell whether he is right or wrong. Trading for a Living
Quote from: shawFund on February 07, 2006, 06:48:52 PM
To all longs of GIGM,
If many people know the stock and become too excited, it is time to exit.
Absolutely right ;)
hi,
i don't know what all the fuss is about . if your a swing trader all the indicators were saying short after its rise to 5.60. if your an investor in the fundamentals a few days of retracement aren't really your concern. it will come back based on it's fundamentals given that it is undervalued.
good work terlisa,
maxi
Quote from: berloga on February 07, 2006, 04:15:28 PM
My portfolio is only 10% of David's and that's where taking some cream off would help, compared to his strategy.
Well that depends on which strategy you are referring to. GIGM is in both the position portfolio and the long term portfolio, although lately the two portfolios are hardly distinguishable, hee heeee. I'm assuming you are going with the position portfolio in which case either the TL2 or the $4.50 trendline should be used. The TL2 is behind us now, but the $4.50 support was only broken today.
What do ya say we get back on topic here :) This board is for GIGM. Terlisa made a nice short trade and its in the past, it shouldn't be a topic of large debate. So i applaud you Terlisa, But what do ya say we get back to the GIGM analysis eh boys?
-fous
Yesterday, GIGM broke the neckline of a H&S top at 4.36. 3.19 is IN PLAY as long as GIGM trades below the neckline.
3.17 is the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the rally off the 1.65 November low.
3.12 was the high of the Symmetrical triangle prior to the 100% rally off the December 30 low.
3.12-3.19 "should be" good support if GIGM trades off to that area.
GIGM should be reporting earnings soon. July and September earnings were not well received. November earnings launched the rally to 5.63 on an upside Breakaway Gap.
Off the November low of 1.65, GIGM enjoyed a rally of 241% to the January high of 5.63. That kind of rally in such a short period of time suggests that a lot of good news is factored into the stock. If GIGM is battling resistance when earnings are released, the stock could falter on "buy the rumor...sell the news", even if earnings are good.
Head & Shoulders Top
Well, I'm always a good sport when playing the markets. I've lost and won so many times that I don't get excited when I win or depressed when I lose. I love the markets because they are so fair and objective.
I have to congratulate Terlisa for a nice quick short term trade on the short side of GIGM :D
But I have to say something about his (or her) strategy. I also read Trading for a Living and Come into my trading Room, from Alexander Elder, sometimes. Maybe too many times. Those books are a nice entertainment but they don't contain in depth market wisdom. One of my closest friends was an addicted on Trading for a Living (the book). He lost all he had several times before he totally quit trading. You can't talk about the markets with him now, he'll run away.
I hope this doesn't happen to you Terlisa, I'm sure it won't. But always keep an open mind to new ideas :)
Considering GIGM, the stock seems to be short term bearish, but medium and long term it continues to be bullish. I didn't catch the opportunity to sell high, but I won't sell low either, because I have time and fundamentals are very attractive.
People were losing money on other stocks and also sold GIGM to cover their losses elsewhere. But good stocks go up in good or bad economic conditions. I'll continue holding GIGM, both on a trading and investment perspective.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 08, 2006, 05:46:35 AM
Yesterday, GIGM broke the neckline of a H&S top at 4.36.
This is a 5-Minute chart, showing the neckline and the right shoulder of the H&S top. This morning GIGM rallied to broken neckline which comes in today at
4.351. The early rally failed at
4.34, validating that the neckline is resistance.
Short-term, GIGM is vulnerable to the downside target unless/until it can get back above the neckline.
GIGM currently is BID 4.06...ASK 4.07
I really don't get why this is still on the trading portfolio. Fear of selling too low? To that I can only say no low is low enough.
Dear Netfish....
This is the difference between trading stocks and investing in companies.
You might be right from a trading perspective that GIGM is a lousy stock at this point in time but from an investing perspective it becomes better and better for each cent it falls.
I am not a great technical trader but I am pretty good at recognizing value when I see it. I sold GIGM with a very healthy profit before they exited the record business and acquired FunTown. This company is today focused on a high growth industry and is worth much more than when I sold it.
I have still not reinvested in GIGM but I will buy the stock as soon as I feel the profit taking is over and the company start trade on the fundamental value of the business. It is this value that makes GIGM a great long term pick (I hope!)
Mike
Do we not have GIGM in 2 portfolios? one of them being the "trading portfolio"? I am all for keeping GIGM in the long term portfolio but I fail to see why we are keeping it in the short term portfolio.
Quote from: Michael on February 08, 2006, 12:18:25 PM
Dear Netfish....
This is the difference between trading stocks and investing in companies.
You might be right from a trading perspective that GIGM is a lousy stock at this point in time but from an investing perspective it becomes better and better for each cent it falls.
I am not a great technical trader but I am pretty good at recognizing value when I see it. I sold GIGM with a very healthy profit before they exited the record business and acquired FunTown. This
company is today focused on a high growth industry and is worth much more than when I sold it.
I have still not reinvested in GIGM but I will buy the stock as soon as I feel the profit taking is over and the company start trade on the fundamental value of the business. It is this value that makes GIGM a great long term pick (I hope!)
Mike
Count me in Michael... i'm just waiting for the right time, i feel bears will dissipate soon, & bulls will gain control of GIGM once again ;)
Hi Terlisa,
I remember that I long time ago said that sooner or later you and I would find a stock we both liked. It is kind of ironic that the stock would be one that I sold way too early and you just have covered and that none of us own!
David bought a heavily discounted ticket for this party. We might have to pay a bit more but judging from his messages it might be worth it ;)
Mike
Quote from: Michael on February 08, 2006, 04:17:07 PM
Hi Terlisa,
I remember that I long time ago said that sooner or later you and I would find a stock we both liked. It is kind of ironic that the stock would be one that I sold way too early and you just have covered and that none of us own!
David bought a heavily discounted ticket for this party. We might have to pay a bit more but judging from his messages it might be worth it ;)
Mike
You got good memory there Michael, I think that was in STX thread ;)
Well for GIGM is in bearish mode at this point. if we really want to go LONG in GIGM we want to trigger our trade the best entry time, right Michael? And that's what i want to target.
I believe GIGM will trade in range for a while before going where it supposed to be going.. maybe few weeks, few months.. I don't know, time will tell ;)
(Just like what happening now in AOB & VPHM)
We all heard the saying, "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND" if you will try to trade against it, you are a dead man... ;)
Goodluck,
Quote from: David Randolph on February 08, 2006, 08:32:59 AM
I hope this doesn't happen to you Terlisa, I'm sure it won't. But always keep an open mind to new ideas :)
Thanks Dave, just like you said & every book that i read... Money Management is a #1 Rule.
& don't confused with my screen name, I am a "He" ***Terlisa <-----> Alister*** ;)
Quote from: netfishmademerich on February 08, 2006, 12:55:41 PM
Do we not have GIGM in 2 portfolios? one of them being the "trading portfolio"? I am all for keeping GIGM in the long term portfolio but I fail to see why we are keeping it in the short term portfolio.
Hello netfishmademerich :) Let me try to explain.
The goal of a long term investor is to buy a valuable stock, with strong growth prospects, so the share price rises on a long term basis. The goal of a trader is to beat investor's performance by trying to sell high and buy low.
I missed the opportunity to sell GIGM high for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio, say, at $5.5. Perhaps I was distracted. But, will I beat the Long Term on Fire portfolio performance if I sell now, at a low point? I don't think so. I want to sell GIGM in overbought conditions to buy back in oversold conditions, not to sell oversold and buy overbought, right?
I trust in my long term analysis that says GIGM will rise again and make new highs above $5.5. That's where I plan to sell GIGM.
I've added some momentum indicators to my chart below so we can check GIGM's oversold condition. I have time to wait for GIGM to make a new high, the medium and long term trends are still bullish, despite the short term bearish trend.
Just have to say with emphasis, GREAT THREAD!!!!. WOW!!!! LOVE IT!!!!!
uc.
David,
Applause for this nice pick, and thanks for your explanation about your medium-to-long-term view on GIGM. I have a trader's mentality, so I would have had to fold on the neckline break 4.35..
I wasn't going to comment any further, since comments on the short-term are inappropriate in this folder, given your longer-term perspective, but I decided to "throw it out there" and post this, since it "could have' at least medium-term implications.
Yesterday, the broken neckline of the H&S top was at 4.337. (it slopes down slightly). GIGM closed just about smack on it, at 4.35., which was the print number where the neckline broke.
Yesterday's print high was 4.58. On the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the 4.58 high was just below a Bearish Cross of the Tenkan-Sen/Kijun-Sen, at 4.635-4.64, which occurred yesterday (I'll explain that in the next post).
Additionally, we've got a "possible" double neckline at 3.90. If that should break, we'll have 2.17 IN PLAY.
Math:
High of the Head was 5.63
Double Neckline is at 3.90
5.63 - 3.90 = 1.73 points
3.90 (if it breaks) - 1.73 points = Target 2.17 IN PLAY
With the fundamentals looking so good, 2.17 doesn't seem likely at this point, but interestingly, November 17 earnings left a gap on the chart at 2.18, so if it goes IN PLAY, I wouldn't rule out that possibility. It isn't uncommon for gaps to get filled.
The Tenkan-Sen (bold green) and Kijun-Sen (bold red) act somewhat like a price-related MACD. The former is an 8-day; the latter a 22-day.
When they are properly positioned (green above red), and when price is above them, "all is well," as we can see on the chart. GIGM rallied off November earnings.
Yesterday, February 9, we got a Bearish Cross (green below red). Like any other indicator, there aren't any hard and fast rules. We have to interpret the signal, based on what price is doing, and based on what other indicators are telling us.
Personally, I take the signal as a warning, especially a warning to look at what price is doing:
1. Price has put in a H&S top that has a target of 3.19 IN PLAY, as long as GIGM trades below the neckline.
2. Price rallied to 4.58 yesterday, five cents below the Bearish crossover, got "locked out," and sold off to the neckline at the close.
3. The last two candlesticks on the weekly chart look bearish.
GIGM needs to stay above the neckline, and to get above the Tenkan-sen/Kijun-Sen at 4.635-4.64.
Thanks for your technical analysis Melf Elf :)
QuoteI wasn't going to comment any further, since comments on the short-term are inappropriate in this folder, given your longer-term perspective, but I decided to "throw it out there" and post this, since it "could have' at least medium-term implications.
Lol, don't even think about not posting short term analysis on this thread. It is suited to that purpose. When you talk about my «longer term perspective» it feels like you're calling me «old man», please stop it ;D
Well, at least on the short term ;D, I was wise about not selling GIGM at that low point below $4. The stock made a nice rebound but the general market weakness took it down a bit by the close. Also previous support at $4.5 is acting as resistance now.
If the market didn't weaken by the close GIGM could have closed higher than $4.5 and clear the way for a push to new highs above $5.5. I believe that will happen today or early next week. We'll see.
Look how the stochastic oscillator came out of oversold territory. It looks like the chance to buy in oversold conditions has passed, did you buy? :)
Quote from: David Randolph on February 10, 2006, 08:19:47 AM
When you talk about my «longer term perspective» it feels like you're calling me «old man», please stop it ;D
Look at it this way, David: You can afford to have a longer term perspective
because you are a young man, so it is a compliment.
>:D ;D
Quote
Look how the stochastic oscillator came out of oversold territory. It looks like the chance to buy in oversold conditions has passed, did you buy? :)
No, when a pattern has broken (the H&S top in GIGM), I tend not to trust those signals. Stochastics is bounded by zero and 100, so eventuallly, there will be a "bullish cross" at some point, but it might only produce a rally to resistance, like we've gotten so far in GIGM. We'll see if it produces something more than that.
Often, strong moves in a stock come from overbought/oversold conditions.
For example, stochastics in GIGM got overbought when the stock was at 3.80, then stochastics went below 70, and below its signal line. That might look like a sell signal, but it was a "false sell." The stock rallied to 5.63. We could have the same thing on this selloff (a "false sell"), but again, the pattern break makes me cautious.
I don't have a postion in GIGM, so I hope that it rallies to new highs in both the short and the long term (for both young and old people, alike).
;D
I believe David was a bit sarcastic wirth you, Melf Elf when he asked whether you'd bought or not at the slow stochastic crossover. You did not have to explain why you stayed out though. What's important is why you reckon investors are and will be attracted to the stock when you decide to buy, who gives a damn about the stochastic! But your analysis is often interesting to read, so keep it up and thanks! :)
Hello :)
I made the question «did you buy?», not specifically to Melf Elf, but to anyone reading the analysis. But I should have ask: «Did you buy or sell?», because, I know a trader only concerned with technical analysis would have sold, but someone with some fundamental knowledge of the company would have hold/add, as I did.
What happened with GIGM explains why I consider it almost impossible to be a long term investor solely based on technical analysis. There are too many false technical signals.
Although the Stocks on Fire is a trading portfolio, as said the objective of this portfolio is to beat the Long Term on Fire Portfolio's performance, and I can only do that by buying low and selling high.
Going back to GIGM's analysis, we don't have any news since January 5th. Anytime we may have a press release from the company, certainly a positive one. Technically we're above $4.5, again, so that resistance didn't last long.
The way is clear for GIGM to challenge and break the previous high of $5.63. Since, according to Melf Elf's analysis (which I thank and applaud), GIGM had a false technical breakdown, probably now we'll get a genuine breakout of the former highs.
David, is that INSM chart.. I thought you're doing an update for GIGM ;)
Quote from: David Randolph on February 13, 2006, 05:14:19 AM
a trader only concerned with technical analysis would have sold, but someone with some fundamental knowledge of the company would have hold/add, as I did.
What happened with GIGM explains why I consider it almost impossible to be a long term investor solely based on technical analysis. There are too many false technical signals.
David,
Yes, I definitely would have sold the break of the H&S top, regardless of how good the fundamentals are, which is why I would make a lousy investor.
Quote
The way is clear for GIGM to challenge and break the previous high of $5.63. Since, according to Melf Elf's analysis (which I thank and applaud), GIGM had a false technical breakdown, probably now we'll get a genuine breakout of the former highs.
As I see it, GIGM has three areas of resistance to get through:
1. The down trendline off the 5.63 high. GIGM closed right on it on Friday, at 4.70.
2. The rising Kijun-Sen (solid red) on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart (next post). It's had a Bearish Cross with the Kijun-sen, and price now is chasing it from below.
3. The Right Shoulder of the H&S Top, at 4.96. If GIGM clears it, that would CANCEL the H&S top target of 3.19 that now is ON HOLD, as long as GIGM remains above the neckline.
Quote
Going back to GIGM's analysis, we don't have any news since January 5th.
I think GIGM should be due to report earnings soon ???
Berloga, thanks for comments. ;)
ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO CHART
Here's an example that might help to illustrate why it's important for GIGM to get back above the right shoulder, which was 4.96.
Like GIGM, ASTM broke below a H&S top on August 18, 2005.
Also like GIGM, ASTM climbed back above the broken neckline, leaving the possibility of a double neckline (GIGM's double neckline possibility is the two lows of 3.90).
ASTM never took out the high of the original right shouder, and it then fell and broke BOTH necklines on September 9, 2005, completing a double H&S top.
That's why it's important for GIGM to close above 4.96, the high of the right shoulder.
Quote from: Terlisa on February 13, 2006, 05:44:27 AM
David, is that INSM chart.. I thought you're doing an update for GIGM ;)
Just noticed and fixed it Terlisa, thanks :)
Hmm... Melf Elf, that early spike up to a high of 4.92 has got me worried now - I know it didn't quite hit your 4.96 shoulder, but was pretty close. That may have been the rally high. The rest of the day the chart has been looking fairly weak. I bought in just recently aound 4.75, so am flirting with break even.It seems to be holding up around 4.70 for now though - to my mind it could really go either way from here.
(TOP) Head & Shoulders pattern is completed on GIGM chart.
Terlisa,
(TOP) Head & Shoulders pattern is completed on GIGM chart.
I'm confused. What does the above mean? Is GIGM going to go down? ???
Quote from: brandyjoco on February 13, 2006, 02:49:01 PM
Terlisa,
(TOP) Head & Shoulders pattern is completed on GIGM chart.
I'm confused. What does the above mean? Is GIGM going to go down? ???
Exlplanation of Top H&S Pattern: http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/headShouldersTop.html
Oh.. do you mean that it dropped down below the neckline and it the target (and now is bouncing back up)..? or is the target actually 3.19 according to the following from Melf Elf:
3. The Right Shoulder of the H&S Top, at 4.96. If GIGM clears it, that would CANCEL the H&S top target of 3.19 that now is ON HOLD, as long as GIGM remains above the neckline.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on February 13, 2006, 02:08:05 PM
to my mind it could really go either way from here.
Scotsman,
Yes, we're in a "neutral zone," here. Below the high of the right shoulder
(4.96), but above the neckline of the H&S top.
Quote
Hmm... Melf Elf, that early spike up to a high of 4.92 has got me worried now
At first flush, that does seem worrisome. If we close near hear, we'll have a Bearish Inverted Hangman on the daily chart. But, that still could work out very nicely for the bulls.
Quote
- I know it didn't quite hit your 4.96 shoulder, but was pretty close. That may have been the rally high.
It could have been the end of the rally, or the H&S Top could be "morphing" (changing) into a Bullish Inverted H&S bottom, with the neckline at 4.96 and today's high of 4.92.
In other words, the high of the right shoulder of the H&S top has become a possible Left Shoulder of an Inverse H&S bottom.
The fact that GIGM has regained the neckline of the H&S top, and the fact that we have a Bullish Wolfe Wave on the intraday chart with the prescriptive "fakeout" at Wave 5 is suggestive of a bullish resolution, as long as we remain above the neckline of the H&S top.
Quote
The rest of the day the chart has been looking fairly weak.
That also is suggestive that we're putting in a Right Shoulder of a Bullish Inverse H&S on today's selloff. Right shoulders are notoriously weak, low volume affairs.
Quote
I bought in just recently aound 4.75, so am flirting with break even.It seems to be holding up around 4.70 for now though
Good luck, Scotsman, and to all 3SOF longs. I hope it's a winner for you.
GIGM currently is BID 4.63...ASK 4.64, down seven cents.
I'll show you the three intraday charts:
1. The Bearish H&S Top (this post)
2. The Bullish Inverse H&S Bottom possibility (next post)
3. The Bullish Wolfe Wave (post after that)
The Right Shoulder of the H&S Top now has become a "possible" Left Shoulder of a bullish Inverse H&S bottom. More selloff here to complete the Right Shoulder even would be desireable, as long as we don't dip back below the neckline of the H&S top, which would negate this possibiltity.
An upside takeout of the neckline at 4.96-4.92 would indicate that the neckline break of the H&S top was a fakeout. The Bullish Wolfe Wave already is indicating that.
As we can see, patterns sure "morph" a alot, so we'll have to watch it.
The downside fakeout to Wave 5, as Calven has taught us, is characteristic of Bullish Wolfe Waves. (Opposite for Bearish WWs). The fact that after the fakeout at Wave 5, GIGM broke out above the Wolfe Wave pattern AND got back above the neckline of the H&S top seems to be telegraphing at the moment that the breakdown, indeed, was a fakeout.
Putting in the second data point of the neckline this morning at 4.92, then the selloff to form the right shoulder looks very constructive for a move up to knock out the 4.92-4.96 neckline when the right shoulder completes.
It's very important, obviously, that this current selloff isn't too deep (back below the H&S Top neckline).
Thanks for all your work and analysis on GIGM Melf Elf, I'm glad the chart is turning more bullish :)
As I see it, the stock consolidated its short term gains for 2 days with very low volume, and yesterday the bulls came in again and volume increased, as it should in the bullish case.
We're still waiting for some earnings news on GIGM, for the 4th quarter of 2005, when Fun Town wasn't in play yet. But, as I recall, people playing games at their website was up 150% from prior levels, so I have no doubt that revenues and earnings will be up.
It will also be interesting to hear the company's guidance for the future.
I believe GIGM will make new highs above $5.63 soon and I'll continue holding the stock, both from a trading and an investment perspective.
FYI
From yahoo board :
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600640698&tid=gigm&sid=1600640698&mid=87660
Anyone know when earnings are??????
David, what is your take about this stock ,(ADAM)? 3,984% in 3 years It looks good for Long-Term hold ;)
For the nine months ended 30 September 2005, A.D.A.M., Inc's revenues rose 27% to $7.5M. Net income totaled $7.6M, up from $945K. Revenues reflect an increase in sales from healthcare and education industry. Net income benefited from the presence of $5.6M income tax benefit, decreased depreciation & amortization costs and increased interest income. ADAM creates, integrates and syndicates online multimedia health content.
Strong uptrend since 2003...
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4073.new#new
According to yahoo:
Market: 83.45M
Shares Out: 8.17M
1.GIGM
FYI from yahoo board -
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600640698&tid=gigm&sid=1600640698&mid=87721
2.UCSY.OB
David , I follow this company since they buy solar IP company from Israel - Millenium.
On friday UCSY got $2.5 million in fundings that IMO extremly important because Millenium
has a lot of agreements and projects in Europe and US. Their patented MSS technology is
blockbuster, IMHO.
http://www.millennium-electric-inc.com/
I think that this co. undervalued if we talk about fast growing solar energy industry.Remember
DESC, ESLR?!
What do you think? :P
Best,
Vova
Hello shawFund :)
I hope that bill does not pass ... GIGM is a Singapore based company. Legislation against online gambling is one of the most serious threats to this GIGM's trade and investment. I'll pay more attention to that issue going forward, thanks for your recall.
Quote from: Terlisa on February 18, 2006, 01:10:56 AM
David, what is your take about this stock ,(ADAM)? 3,984% in 3 years It looks good for Long-Term hold ;)
For the nine months ended 30 September 2005, A.D.A.M., Inc's revenues rose 27% to $7.5M. Net income totaled $7.6M, up from $945K. Revenues reflect an increase in sales from healthcare and education industry. Net income benefited from the presence of $5.6M income tax benefit, decreased depreciation & amortization costs and increased interest income. ADAM creates, integrates and syndicates online multimedia health content.
Strong uptrend since 2003...
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4073.new#new
According to yahoo:
Market: 83.45M
Shares Out: 8.17M
I'll take a look at ADAM tomorrow before the open, thanks for the tip Terlisa :)
Quote from: voova99 on February 18, 2006, 06:27:34 AM
1.GIGM
FYI from yahoo board -
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600640698&tid=gigm&sid=1600640698&mid=87721
2.UCSY.OB
David , I follow this company since they buy solar IP company from Israel - Millenium.
On friday UCSY got $2.5 million in fundings that IMO extremely important because Millenium
has a lot of agreements and projects in Europe and US. Their patented MSS technology is
blockbuster, IMHO.
http://www.millennium-electric-inc.com/
I think that this co. undervalued if we talk about fast growing solar energy industry.Remember
DESC, ESLR?!
What do you think? :P
Best,
Vova
I'll analyze UCSY.OB tomorrow Vova, I hope it is an attractive pick to me, since I would like to buy some more penny stocks to the Pennies on Fire Portfolio. Thanks :)
There's nothing new to say about GIGM on a trading perspective. I'm starting to think there's more to know about this pick than «online gambling is set to grow at a very fast pace for the next 5 to 10 years».
I'll take a deeper look at GIGM on the proper place, the Long Term on Fire Message Board.
I'll continue holding GIGM, both from a trading and investment perspective.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 20, 2006, 06:22:55 PM
I'll take a look at ADAM tomorrow before the open, thanks for the tip Terlisa :)
Thanks David... I'm just asking what is your take about ADAM & i got smited in this thread i believe ...AGAIN... >:(
I'll take profits on GIGM around today's open. I'll continue holding the stock on the Long Term on Fire Portfolio.
I need to get more active and back to the old trading style if I want to beat the market month after month. I need an open mind and the flexibility to change ideas as the market changes. Open to the future and free from the past.
After all, there is a trading and an investment portfolio.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 22, 2006, 06:45:21 AM
I'll take profits on GIGM around today's open. I'll continue holding the stock on the Long Term on Fire Portfolio.
I need to get more active and back to the old trading style if I want to beat the market month after month. I need an open mind and the flexibility to change ideas as the market changes. Open to the future and free from the past.
After all, there is a trading and an investment portfolio.
Right on David!! ;) Let's get it on!! ;)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nf/20060223/tc_nf/41744
A U.S. ban on on line gambling is hard to enforce - look at their success at handling kiddie-porn. Zero!
A world-wide ban is ridiculous. Mah-Jong and Gambling are part of the culture of Asia and this company has a strong hold on both. If they can come out with some earnings, I think this company has a good future. I cannot get a handle of when earnings are, though.
GIGM's yahoo message board is very interesting place with
some very special individuals. Here is the best:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600640698&tid=gigm&sid=1600640698&mid=88193
I think GIGM is shaping up for a run probably to the upper bollinger band around $5.10 or at least to challenge the $5 resistance. Friday's move took it just over significant short term resistance, if Monday is OK it will start that run, but if Monday is weak then it will not make it much past $4.75.
I read that post in Yahoo message board too.
Don't bet on China's market. Gambling is illegal in China and there is no way an Internet gambling website can get money out of China.
Do you know how on-line shopping (Ebay for example) is doing business in China now?
Two ways for the payment:
1. bank money transfer
2. pay on the spot: they deliver the product at your door and I pay the cash.
No credit card transactions, no paypal transactions.
I made many on-line purchases in Beijing, China.
Sometimes, I sent the money by bank transfer, sometimes I paid the money when they deliver the products to my apartment door.
On-line games are legal in China. You can buy points to play the games at home through bank money transfer. Or in Internet cafes, you pay cash by hour.
I just don't know how Internet gambling company can get the money out of China?
They cannot open a bank account in China. Internet cafes are strictly controlled by the government.
Anyone can tell?
Unless I can figure out how they can make money from China's market, I will not buy this stock. May be they can make money in Taiwan, HK, Singapore.
new redesigned homepage:
http://www.gigamedia.com.tw/
EMA(50) is support line IMO
50(MA) support, bottom bollinger band, and ADX is tight!!!
I may buy more tomorrow. :o
Good luck
What do you think about GIGM? Is it in a symetrical triangle (bullish continuation pattern with decreasing volume - 75% chance of upward trend continuation)? I am still holding and being patient...
I'm still holding. I did not sell when DR existed in the SOF portfolio. Also this is my pick for the $1000 contest.
GIGM chart is looking good for a continuation move very soon. Support from the 50sma is holding and MACD is plotting a nice positive divergance over the past 3 weeks or so. Red line on chart signifies a key pivot point for me ($4.74) multiple touches here and converging with upper bollinger band, so a break of that will be good.
Major caveat to all the above mumbo jumbo is that earnings are due anyday, everyone is waiting for decent earns and perhaps some more info regarding FunTown. If that dissapoints then the great weight of expectation will get real heavy on the price.
I am holding, but may lighten up before earnings (if we get a date that is)
AussieTrader I agree with your post. My feeling is that most speculators and "mo" players are already out during the month-long consolidation we've had. I guess if there is a significant run into earnings then I'd lighten up, otherwise it's probably going to be fine unless the earnings turn out to be a diseaster.
Michael, you mentioned a stop loss of $4.95. Was it $3.95 that you meant?
Quote from: basonista on March 15, 2006, 05:35:20 PM
Michael, you mentioned a stop loss of $4.95. Was it $3.95 that you meant?
Thanks Basonista. Of course it is 3.95. It is corrected by now!
FYI
is this for real? anybody got a different date?
from Yahoo! Message Boards: GIGM
"Recommend this Post Ignore this User | Report Abuse
earnings 3/23 before market.Up 9 cents
by: malonehog
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 03/15/06 07:40 pm
Msg: 89402 of 89406
in after market
Message Thread [ View ]"
I'm very disapointed :(
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600640698&tid=gigm&sid=1600640698&mid=89393
Any thoughts about the impact on GIGM?
Best,
Vova
Earnings Date released, interesting to see if some speculation now returns prior to the date.
GigaMedia to Report Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2005 Financial Results on March 23
PR Newswire - March 17, 2006 06:29
TAIPEI, Taiwan, March 17, 2006 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- GigaMedia Limited (''GigaMedia'' or the ''Company'') (Nasdaq: GIGM) will report the Company's fourth-quarter and full-year 2005 financial results on Thursday, March 23, 2006 before the market opens.
Management will hold an investor conference call on March 23, 2006 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, which is 9:30 p.m. Taipei/Hong Kong Time on March 23, 2006, to discuss the Company's fourth-quarter and full-year performance. A link to the live and archived webcast will be available at http://www.gigamedia.com.tw
Hello guys,
Today there was a nice momentum for GIGM. I have been watching GIGM for a while and been wating and wating to entera position. If it closes above the 4.75 resistance, I think that could be the start of a new run.It also forms a nice ascending triangle. only my humble opinion. Any thoughts?
rafael
Earnings date release (Mar 23rd) bought the speculators back into GIGM. Nice volume and close today above my previous resistance pivot point. The support from 50sma and the shrinking volume in the basing phase these past few weeks is technically very nice. I expect a pre earns run to test previous highs. What then happens at earnings is the unknown quantity. I m yet to decide whether to hold or not. My head says a firm NO, but my heart....... ;)
So many GIGM threads on the various boards. Anyways don't want to post too often on the long term thread as that sort of negates having it as a long term hold. As I previously alluded to, speculators came back now the earns date released.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.msg52068#msg52068
Quote from: AussieTrader on March 18, 2006, 01:38:03 AMEarnings date release (Mar 23rd) bought the speculators back into GIGM. Nice volume and close today above my previous resistance pivot point. The support from 50sma and the shrinking volume in the basing phase these past few weeks is technically very nice. I expect a pre earns run to test previous highs.
What then happens at earnings is the unknown quantity. I m yet to decide whether to hold or not. My head says a firm NO, but my heart....... ;)
Excellent summary of the sentiment I think many have on GIGM before the earnings (applauds!). Gigamedia can react quite violently to earnings so it certainly takes strong nerves to hold over earnings. The chart does however look strong here so we will hold GIGM over earnings.
To protect the profit we have on this trade we are putting a stop at 4.48. This is the second line of defense in case we have a break down in the chart after earnings.
The earnings estimates for Q4 is 0.03 and GIGM should be able to meet or beat this. I do however think that most interest will be around the forward looking statements and the expectations is high here.
GIGM has been so kind to release the earnings before the opening on Thursday so this stop might be revised if there is any good or bad surprises.
I sold some of my holding into the pre earns strength at $5.40, will now hold remainder through the earnings 'gamble' Well i say gamble, but decent support is close by, the pysch $5, 50sma at $4.60 (daily chart) and ascending support lines (weekly and daily). Also as it is so close to 52 week highs any move through it will bring in a lot of buying as it will be a powerful breakout signal.
Caveat Emptor - My recent earnings plays have sucked big time, so I figured this time it must be better ;)
Hi Michael,
Is that stop at $4.48 a market order? I assume in the case of DIET that only a market order would have taken effect as the drop was so dramatic and fast. Or do you put in a limit stop order with a range?
Awesome indeed La onda,
Lets see the bull run on this news. GIGM for the long term for sure.
Good Luck
Quote from: Michael on March 22, 2006, 02:52:48 AM
Excellent summary of the sentiment I think many have on GIGM before the earnings (applauds!). Gigamedia can react quite violently to earnings so it certainly takes strong nerves to hold over earnings. The chart does however look strong here so we will hold GIGM over earnings.
Congratulations Michael and to the 3SOF team on another monster. I've been a silent follower of 3SOF for about 6 months now just trying to learn from everyone. Great call to hold through earnings, being that Yahoo shows GIGM at $6.55 in pre market, up 26%. Do you worry about the gap up being the peak of this run, or with the fantastic earnings do you think this is just a new base from which GIGM will run? Are you thinking of selling here? Thanks again. ;D ;D
Now the question is will it be a white candle gap up or a black candle gap???
I just listened to the conference call. GIGM management are executing to a fantastic strategy and are super super bullish. I don't normally listen to cc's but for this one I made an exception.
My opinion following the results and importantly the guidance is that 1) This gap will probably become a breakaway gap 2) More analyst coverage will now come into GIGM and bring attention to a wider audience.
Good luck
Black candle gap-up. I plan on taking profits if it tries to fill the gap and then re-enter later.
Great outlook...opinions?
laterz...Jody
Quote1) This gap will probably become a breakaway gap
Too much pre market euphoria so the day didn't get that continuation to make a clean breakaway gap. However, importantly, it held above the previous 52 week high on enormous volume.
I look forward to Michael's fundamental analysis, I think GIGM is entering a new price appreciation phase as the market digests the financial turnaround and growth prospects going on here.
I think quarterly report is enough reason to get some
input from Administrator Speculator, isn't it?
Hello Michael,
Well GIGM seem to have shined through on Thursday. ;D I was very pleased with the conference call and see a bright future for GIGM. I am assuming they know that 40% revenues for first quarter 2006 are already in the bag. I was thinking of adding to my position. Was wondering what your thoughts were on the CC and their future prospects. Thanks in advance.
Alien
We are still waiting for the word from Micheal.
The company Q4 2005 revenue: $11.8 million, net profit 2.4 million ($0.05 per share) but will be $1.3 million ($0.025 per share) if $1.1 million profit from legal settlement is not included.
Next quarter revenue is expected at $16.5 million but the company did not give net profit figures.
2005 profit of $0.13 per share gives the company's trailing PE of 42.
If the company can earn $0.26 in 2006 (100% increase) with the same PE, the stock will be in $10 range.
So, long term target is about $10 for 2006.
I am looking for other's opinions.
GIGM continues to shape up nicely for continuation. I think the story here is so strong that GIGM could keep moving up nicely for many weeks / months to come. Not setting any target (yet), but I am going to try and stay with this one as long as possible. I have 2 positions from $2.88 and $4.66 (having sold a small position prior to earns). It's the type of chart / story that if you fast foward 6 months you are not surprised to see a $15 / $20 stock.
Daily and Weekly Charts:
Don't want to duplicate posts. My analysis if interested.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.msg53834#msg53834
16 slides conference script:
http://ir.giga.net.tw/downloads/conference/4Q05%20Script-final.pdf
chart:
16 slides conference call script:
http://ir.giga.net.tw/downloads/conference/4Q05%20Script-final.pdf
enjoy ;D
Short term, it is in $5.50-$6.05 range.
Bullish long term.
Hey Guys,
Been looking at some screens of mine and looks to me GIGM showed up again.
For you Traders out there. TAke a look at the previous volume on the earnings push. Based on the Volume and weekly charts I can see this retesting 6.40. i'll be happy with over 6.
Going in with 1000 shares. Monday.
I fail to understand... ::)
I counted 9 different threads started on this stock, "and a new one today".
I don't know why we all cant post to the thread that was started first, "The Original"
It is so much easier to have all the history on a pick in one thread.That is unless you have a thread for longs and one for shorts,but still then we only need one of each.
This of someone starting a new thread is just a bunch of useless threads, clogs the site with trash. Why not use the search to find the thread and post what you have to say as an update to the thread..... ???
???
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=407.30
HI,
maybe ramsburg could combine the new thread when it shows up. it can still have the same heading that you put on the post but it will show up on the original thread.
maxi
Is this member receiving the daily updates??
Pls look our current portfolio :
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3LongTermOF.php
jorgegr
Looks like GIGM is moving well this morning - profit taking may be done and it should be ready to get stuck into the $6 range ;D
Quote from: ScottishTrader on April 03, 2006, 10:20:26 AM
Looks like GIGM is moving well this morning - profit taking may be done and it should be ready to get stuck into the $6 range ;D
Hi Scotsman
We couldn't have asked for much more today. The stock is up with more than 10% and finish at HOD under nice volume. This is a great launch pad for tomorrows trading.
There is a good chance that we will breakout of the base already tomorrow which would be a great technical confirmation of the strong fundamentals.
Did get a very nice Breakout from the Symmetrical Triangle,
with follow through.
Volume: 2,251,507
Avg Vol (3m): 1,352,980
Technicals
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
16.10%above 13-day EMA
33.97%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 6
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $288.61
P/E Ratio: 56.99
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A
Hi, Setravis
I really appreciate your post.
According to the Good FA and TA of GIGM, What is your expected target? Thanks
Hi Michael,
WOW, the chart looks great. Is there a target yet? ???
thanks,
rafael
Rafael:
Think you should read Aussie's info:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.msg53834#msg53834
Consolidation after reaching 6.36 and after that...new highs.
jorgegr
Great move today! It confirms that the market agrees the earning report last week was indeed good. I wish I had kept all the shares that I had from last July when it was only $2. GIGM has a long way to go.
Broke through resistance today, but volume not very high. Should we up the stop on this one?
Quote from: netfishmademerich on April 05, 2006, 04:02:47 PM
Broke through resistance today, but volume not very high. Should we up the stop on this one?
Quote from: mexirafa on April 03, 2006, 10:02:47 PM
Hi Michael,
WOW, the chart looks great. Is there a target yet? ???
thanks,
rafael
Hmmm.... two posts that touch the most difficult part of investment from different angels.
GIGM is a great investment and the real question is when should we take our profit.
I think we have all seen profit fade away day after day and finally sold when the stock hit our entry price. (or maybe I am the only one!).
In the case of GIGM I prefer not to have a target. This is a company that is undergoing a transformation. They have within 6 month totally changed the business and has come out as a much stronger growth business. The Funtown acquisition adds a mind bubbling potential, which makes any fundamental target pure guesswork. There are as mentioned previously several triggers that can make the stock price increase significantly.
It is however also true that the excitement around stocks like GIGM can evaporate and the believers end-up holding a stock that slowly drift lower.
Instead of setting a target on GIGM we will put a quit tight stop at 5.5. If this target is compromised it will be very damaging from a technical perspective and for those of us who understand the long term potential of GIGM it could signal that we could buy it back at a lower price.
I am travelling in the UK right now so can not post much, but GIGM is acting exactly as the chart and news predicted. My trailing stop sits below the 20ema and previous 52 week high at $5.43. I will up date next week when I get home.
Micheal,
Great pick! Would you recommend taking a position at this PPS or maybe waiting for a pullback to the ascending trendline, which now sits at 6.20 or so.
GIGM breaking out to new highs this morning, currently sitting at 6.85 - looks like it could get a strong push into $7 this week!!
Go GIGM ;D ;D ;D
What a bloody Tuesday >:(
It seems like people used the general weakness in the market as an excuse to take profit on GIGM. A down-day in a market like this is not of great concern; the chart still looks strong. This is clearest in the weekly chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19296;image)
We had some news out
Single-Digit Survivors Become Small Wonders
(http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/activetraderupdate/10278623.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA).
QuoteGigaMedia (GIGM:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) dropped from $91 to 20 cents during its post-bubble plunge. It just broke out to a five-year high on heavy volume. Unfortunately, the stock is overextended here and could pull back to test support near $5 at any time. But it shows little overhead resistance from current levels until it reaches the August 2000 recovery high over $13. That would be a double from Tuesday's close.
I guess this is a short-term sell and a longterm buy recommendation. We will stick to our plan and keep GIGM unless it hit the stop at 5.5. GIGM can at anytime issue news around:
- Divesting of residential ADSL business
- Agreement with other premier gaming sites to license the Funtown software
- Introduction of real money MahJong gaming
This will hopefully take the stock towards the $13 target.
After such a strong breakout on Monday morning, I really didn't like to see so much given up in the ensuing bloodbath. However, I agree that a sell at this point would be foolish.
Everything (really almost everything) was down heavily yesterday, and the markets took GIGM down with them. But support just above 6.00 held. If this breaks, I would like to see support at 5.60 hold, which would test the March breakout, so I think your stop level is appropriate. However, it could come back down to test the ascending trendline whiich currently sits at around 5.25. There are also negative divergences in both MACD and RSI, and the MACD is about to head below its signal line, which could be considered to be bearish.
GIGM really does have too many positives going for it to be pulled much below $6. However, I have seen too many stocks get taken down lately, despite a very positive outlook, so I think it is important to be wary in case the market really does turn.
Market isn't cooperating, but GIGM is holding it's own. The potential news in the pipeline for GIGM should keep it holding and ready to take out $6.93 high. I have tightened my stops because of the weak general market and signals (e,g, MACD Histo), basically using just below 20ema on daily chart and from a protect profit point of view about 80% of my current gain.
happy easter!
GIGM: ThinkEquity Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $8.5; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, April 12, 2006 08:38 ET
Issuer: GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM)
Analyst Firm: ThinkEquity Partners
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $8.50
Analyst Comments: The firm believes that Giga can offer significant growth and earnings strength in the next few years.
Very good development:
http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20060414A9057.html
Now GIGM will be able to attract people for playing MahJong from their home TV. :o
This one looks like a sure 2bagger this year ;)
Good to see they are working with Microsoft.
-----------------------------
First Taiwan-developed Xbox 360 game to launch in June
Kaddy Chung, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DigiTimes.com [Friday 14 April 2006]
FunTown, a Taiwanese producer of PC games, is expected to launch the Xbox 360 version of the traditional Chinese gambling game Mahjong in June of this year, the first among Taiwanese producers of Xbox 360 games, according to senior sales manager Grace Chou for Entertainment & Device Division of Microsoft Taiwan.
FunTown was acquired by GigaMedia, a Taiwanese provider of on-line games and Internet services, in December 2005.
The sales performance of the Xbox 360 in the Taiwan market since its launch on March 16 has been better than expected, said Chou. The supply shortage of Xbox 360 consoles following the launch has been solved but the supplies of a few accessory items are still insufficient, Chou indicated. The cumulative global sales volume of Xbox 360 consoles will hit the original target of 5.5 million units for the end of June this year, Chou predicts.
GIGM showed beautiful strength yesterday in an otherwise pretty grim market. It finished the day at a multiple year high. That is the kind of stocks we like :D
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19576;image)
It seems more an more investors are eyeing the potential in the FunTown acquisition. But that is not all it also seems like more and more players are enjoying the fun at FunTown. Since GIGM took over FunTown the traffic to the site has been on a steady rise:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19577;image)
No wonder Gigamedia said at the last CC that FunTown is exceeding their expectations!
Thanks again 3SoF (http://mdteague.com/JumpnFLame)
This stock is what originally brought me to this site. I think this was Michael's pick almost a year ago?
What do you guys think the impact of Giga's Mahjong on XBox will be? It is not clear at all to me but sounds like good publicity.
You have a very good memory Wrasse!!
GIGM was my first pick for 3SOF at around 1.9.
Quote from: Michael on June 12, 2005, 07:30:02 AM
The new management has shown the foresight and business shrewdness, which I like to see from a management team and I prefer to play on their team. At the CC they said that they are: "highly confident in our ability to deliver continued improvement in the company's 2005 financials and increasing shareholder value" .
I am quoting this because I think there is a lesson to be learned: The most important feature of any company is the management team. A fact that we too often forget - our rather we use the financial results as a proxy for the mangement team's efficiency. This is most often a good proxy but when we are looking at companies which is undergoing a turn-around or does not have a long track record financial results are not the best indicator.
Unfortunately - or fortunately for those of us who like to pick stocks - some of the best picks are stocks with a short track record (like ASPV) or stocks that are going through a turn-around (like GIGM).
GIGM just continues to Rock-n-Roll. >:D Takes the sting out of my position with GSHF. Not down but certainly not as up as I would like to be.
Michael, I was wondering if it might be a good idea to raise the stop on this one. I don't see much downside but I sure wouldn't want to be caught off guard.
Alien
Setting stops and protecting profit is one of the more challenging aspects of trading especially when trying to stay with a position such as GIGM.
For my own GIGM position I have 3 trend lines on my daily chart; A longer term pre earn line, pre earns run / post earns line and most recently a new aggresive line that started after the $6 retest. Using those lines combined with 9ema,20ema and % of profit I want protected I calculate my stops.
Right now I have moved my stop to a 2 tier approach 1) 50% of position $7.05 (being below 2 trend lines and 9ema which has been good support on this run). 2) 50% of position at $6.78 being below 20ema and mid bolling band point. This means I have approx 75% of profit protected and 25% at risk.
Michael will have his 3SOV strategy update I am sure, this is just my own personal stop strategy based on my money management and financial approach.
Good luck
glad I kept all the shares I bought for the last edition of the stock contest. Looking forward to double digits soon. IMO this stock is "on fire".
Hi Michael,
Let me start by saying I think 3SOF is a great place to be and I learn everyday :). My question comes from trying to understand. Every day I expect 3SOF to change the plan on GIGM to lock in profits. But it's not changed for a long time. It made me set up my own plan, b/c I think it's just crazy to let 60% of profits possibly run away.Don't know why I did not share earlier. Guess b/c I'm still not completely confident when it comes to TA :-[ :-[
Anyway the ascending TL (rising $ 0,10 a day) has been working great for me. Everyday I upgrade the stop. For today it stands at $ 7,50.
Curious to know your reasoning behind not upgrading the 3SOF stop. And...once again thanks for this great pick!
Amarens
Hi Amarens and Aussie,
At 3SOF we have very strict trading rules. One of them is that we don't change the trading plan during trading hours. In the case with stocks that are fundamentally as attractive as GIGM we prefer to have a very loose stop.
Now that doesn't mean that we will never raise the target and having in mind that the stock now is significantly higher than when we last posted an update it is probably time to revise the target.
GIGA management keeping things nicely on track:
GigaMedia Secures Large China Base by Strategic Investment in Online Sports Game Leader T2CN Holding
PR Newswire - May 01, 2006 08:02
FunTown MahJong extends in China to 21 million registered users; 6.9 million active users in last 30 days
SHANGHAI, China, May 1, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia") (Nasdaq: GIGM) announced today a major expansion of its China market reach in an exclusive partnership with and strategic investment in online casual game company T2CN Holding Ltd. ("T2CN"), operator of the largest online sports game in China.
"Today Giga takes a major step forward in China," stated GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. "We bring our number one FunTown MahJong and other Asian games to the 21 million registered users of T2CN in China, an important expansion of our China market reach."
"The true pedigree of T2CN can be seen from their marketing partnership with premier international brands such as Coca-Cola and the NBA," stated GigaMedia CEO Wang. "We are proud to be a partner and co-owner of this exciting company."
Under the terms of the strategic partnership, GigaMedia will make an initial investment of US$15 million and obtain preferred shares convertible into a minority equity stake in T2CN, along with customary preferred share rights and protections. GigaMedia will also join the Board of T2CN.
GigaMedia and T2CN will together offer FunTown's existing games to the large T2CN user base on a revenue sharing arrangement. GigaMedia will become T2CN's exclusive provider for FunTown's existing games and preferred provider for games newly developed by GigaMedia.
The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions. Management expects the transaction to close in early May.
I believe GIGM may be at a short term resistance level at this point. This last announcement might have done a final kick to that level. The question is, will it trend up at a slow pace or correct to stay in the channel? Trying to post an image here...
(http://C:%5Cgs%5Cgigm_0501.jpg)
Sorry, here is the chart. (attaching an image).
Like Eddie Money sang, "I think I'm in love!"
Big growth discussed about online gaming in China including discussion of big advertising dollars for a GIGM partner T2CN
http://en.ce.cn/Industries/IT/200603/13/t20060313_6349380.shtml
I think I told the board this stock is "on fire". This fire has just begun.
Quote from: netfishmademerich on April 27, 2006, 09:02:55 PM
IMO this stock is "on fire".
just awesome
A lot of good information on the board today (and smileys ;))
The investment in and partnership with T2CN is yet another masterstroke by GIGM. They are fast becoming the powerhouse of Chinese online gaming. There are several interesting perspectives in the deal. One of them is that even though T2CN's games are free gamers do actually pay for getting additional weapons and other advantages. T2NV therefore has a payment system in place with vouchers, credit cards and agreements with Internet Café's. This could proof to have immense value for GIGM.
T2CN has had a block of 8 million shares for sale for some time at a price of $1.5 per share. I am not sure if that is the block that GIGM has bought. There is a SEC prospectus with a lot of great details on T2CN here: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1333194/000100487805000176/f1amend1nov05.txt
As said before it is time to raise the stop for GIGM. We will put a stop at the ascending trend line, which stands at 7.7 today. We will revisit the stop regularly.
GIGM shoots over 17% :o :o
LOL, i think i understated the impact of the news release in my previous post ;) GIGM now have entry into China and for $15M have bought access to 21M online potential customers plus a seat on the board of T2CN. The market for sure is rewarding the way GIGM management are executing to strategy.
Chart now looks like a runaway gap could be established as traders are falling over themselves to get on board. This type of gap is aways more significant if it has broken out of an already strong chart pattern (which with GIGM for sure is the case). Some refer to this type of gap (once it is confirmed) as a measuring gap because it occurs at the approximate halfway point of an extended run. No idea if that is a valid theory or not, it would give an $18 zone as a target though.
Flipside to the above is an exhaustion gap, which would mean this gap fills quickly and stock loses momentum to the downside.
I am betting on the former (based on the news in the pipeline and the execution to stated strategy that GIGM are doing), but will tighten stops to protect profit.
Good luck to all.
Quote from: Terlisa on May 01, 2006, 07:33:58 PM
GIGM shoots over 17% :o :o
My only question is where to add to my position next...
Yeeeeoooowww! This is so on fire.
Hey Aussie, could you please share your stop strategy on GIGM at this juncture?
Thank you!
This news release came out just after I posted. Maybe we get more fuel on the fire on the run up to earnings. This next week or so will be interesting for sure.
GigaMedia to Report First-Quarter 2006 Financial Results on May 11
PR Newswire - May 03, 2006 00:05
TAIPEI, Taiwan, May 3, 2006 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- GigaMedia Limited (''GigaMedia'' or the ''Company'') (Nasdaq: GIGM) will report the Company's first-quarter 2006 financial results on Thursday, May 11, 2006 before the market opens.
Management will hold an investor conference call on May 11, 2006 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, which is 8:00 p.m. Taipei/Hong Kong Time on May 11, 2006, to discuss the Company's first-quarter performance. A link to the live and archived webcast will be available at
------------------------------------------
Quote from: berloga on May 02, 2006, 11:15:42 PM
Hey Aussie, could you please share your stop strategy on GIGM at this juncture?
Thank you!
Sure, I have a split 50:50 stop now. One at $7.70 below ascending support line and one at $8.20 below my previous ascending resistance line and the daily 9ema. That combination gives me 70% profit protected 30% at risk. I'll be watching how the gap up plays out over the coming days to re-adjust when required.
the story continues.... >:D >:D >:D
GIGM: ThinkEquity Keeps @ Buy; Ups Tgt to $11 vs $8.5; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , May 02, 2006 10:45 ET
Issuer: GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM)
Analyst Firm: ThinkEquity Partners
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $11.00 (+29.41% from $8.50)
Analyst Comments: The firm believes that the company's strong core business fundamentals in the high-growth online gaming and casual games markets; 40% estimated organic earnings growth; recent and expected future strategic and accretive announcements to expand its geographic footprint and the FunTown platform; and increasing visibility warrant a higher multiple for the stock.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.5a5ca04c1b212506a9b4a4799e046080ca6e991808ecda0c0eb3e3e6e53ab0da
GIGM is a 10 baby! Ok, maybe it is just lust on my part (http://www.digitalcorvettes.com/forums/images/smilies/hump.gif)
Did I tell you this stock is "on fire"? How many new 52 week high's did it make in a row? This is a sign to buy buy buy!!! You simply can not afford not to be in this stock.
Saw 3SOV updated the stop to $ 7,70, which is about my previous TL.
My update and descions for today:
Today I decided to started to follow a new ascending TL, rising $ 0,40 a day standing at $ 9,68 today. I've put my stop just below that at $ 9,60).
I know it's steep but, I'm simply unwilling to let 25% profits run away. If it goes through my stop I trust I'll be able to pick up GIGM at a lower level.
Amarens
Michael,
Do you have a target price for this stock?
If not, when are you planning to sell? Only when you will notice it does not get higher anymore?
Thanks!
Ohad
Normal profit taking. Today's low still above yesterday's low. We need to consolidate before earnings so after earning is announced we can make massive run out of this new base.
Quote from: DannyOhad on May 04, 2006, 12:25:50 PM
Michael,
Do you have a target price for this stock?
If not, when are you planning to sell? Only when you will notice it does not get higher anymore?
Thanks!
Ohad
Hi Ohad
No we do not have a target for GIGM. I have been struggling a bit on this but I haven't found a way to put a price target on the business that GIGM has build over the last 6 months. What is the value of FunCity's 4 millions members when GigaMedia introduces Mahjong for cash? What is the value of T2CN's 21 million players in China and their payment system?
For now we will let the stock run and protect our profit with a loose stop.
Quote from: Amarens on May 04, 2006, 07:51:24 AM
Saw 3SOV updated the stop to $ 7,70, which is about my previous TL.
My update and descions for today:
Today I decided to started to follow a new ascending TL, rising $ 0,40 a day standing at $ 9,68 today. I've put my stop just below that at $ 9,60).
I know it's steep but, I'm simply unwilling to let 25% profits run away. If it goes through my stop I trust I'll be able to pick up GIGM at a lower level.
Amarens
Hmmmm.... That was a very aggressive stop. It stands at 10.08 tomorrow so there is a very good chance/risk that you will be stopped out if you raise your stop according to the trend line. You could be right but I have to say that the times that I have sold because I hoped to buy lower I normally had to buy higher.
On another note. Among the trading team we have had a discussion about Chinese stocks. I am personally heavy invested in Chinese stocks and this is not a conscious decision but rather a result of the fact that from a technical and fundamental point of view Chinese stocks are in general performing extremely well. From 3SOF I just have to mention, CHID, AOB, XING, GIGM, SVA etc. I think we have only seen the start of the Chinese boom. China has explosive growth, huge surplus on the trade balance, very cheap labor, an undervalued currency and the list could go on. I encourage all members to come up with other value Chinese play. Personally I love COGO, which we should have picked some weeks ago, but there are other stocks out there!
China has just relaxed the rules about Chinese investments abroad and this could add additional fuel to Chinese stocks quoted in US (Chinese citizens were previously not allowed to invest abroad)
Michael,
I know it's an aggressive stop. Just want to secure profits :) :). Nothing wrong with that. B.t.w. set the stop just below the TL. Which I'll do again today. I've raised my stop from $ 9,60 to 9,80 (also just below yesterday's low). We will see.
Amarens
Support at $9.30, who'd have known??? After 2 days of consolidation this is only down ~9% from 52 week high close of $10.39
I think it may continue to consolidate another day... maybe just 1/2 a day, and then off to the races as Q1 earnings is coming.
Hi Amarens
Nothing wrong with profit taking and the steep ascending trend line was convincingly broken Friday. The underlying up trend is however still very much intact so we will follow our trading plan for GIGM and just update the stop to 8.0
Well I took profits ::) ::) ::) Stop was at $ 9,80.
Decided to get back in. Worked at almost low of the day $ 9,32. The afterhours make it look like it was a good choice. Hope today proofs me right >:D.
Will go back to the first TL too. Standing at $ 8,55 today, rising $ 0,16 a day. I'll place my stop just below at $ 8,40
Amarens
GIGM just hit $10.00 >:D Gotta love this baby! Keep the fires burning.
Alien
Haaaa... I was right. Only 1/2 day it was down. This one is going to the moon. Talk about multi-bag... we first had this on the 3SOF portfolio when it was under $3. If you ask me, we are going to see much much higher prices this year. You just can't afford not to be in this stock, if you want descent returns on your potfolio.
Quote from: netfishmademerich on May 05, 2006, 04:58:29 PM
I think it may continue to consolidate another day... maybe just 1/2 a day, and then off to the races as Q1 earnings is coming.
GIGM keeps on doing what we all want it to. Strong support near the runaway (well I hope it will prove to be in that I think it WILL NOT fill) gap just below $9. I have moved my stop into the gap zone at $8.72. Sure looks like another run to $10.49 will take place prior to earnings, volume ramping nicely since May also. Can't fault the chart, now just a case of managing the risk with stops.
$10.49 needs to get taken out though, don't want it to bcome a glass ceiling here
Good luck
Moved my stop up to $ 8,71 right on the TL rising $ 0,16 a day.
Amarens
So, earnings out in two days. I have held onto this puppy since it was just $2.70. ;D I must admit I am a little nervous in regards to earnings. Not that I don't see great things coming but people might just expect a little too much from them right now. Was thinking a tight stop and hope for the best. Any comments welcomed.
Alien
Quote from: alien41 on May 09, 2006, 05:57:14 PM
So, earnings out in two days. I have held onto this puppy since it was just $2.70. ;D I must admit I am a little nervous in regards to earnings. Not that I don't see great things coming but people might just expect a little too much from them right now. Was thinking a tight stop and hope for the best. Any comments welcomed.
Alien
nervous!!!!! you held from 270. thats awsome! even if it turned ugly and closed at 810 after earnings (which it won't) you still made 200percent on your money in 6 months . try getting that from a bank.
well played,
maxi
Maxi, appreciate the words. Definetly my best trade. 8) Have had my share of mistakes. I'm still learning and 3 Stocks on Fire has been a great resource. :) Just two more days till earnings.
GLTA......Alien
So, the stage is set, volume since May 1st increased nicely, also more volatility on daily basis. I am getting more aggresive on my stops. I have split 50:50 below congestion / trend lines.
I fully expect a great conf call with more positive guidance, but I want to protect my healthy profits at the same time.
I am considering a buy stop at $10.50 to add a new position also, but still thinking on that one.
Results are awesome for sure, but there was little specific guidance for next quarter and some coment regarding seasonality affecting next qtr. This might lead to some profit taking as many with recent profit will want to lock in without specifics on guidance.
Looks like it will open flat (ish) to yesterdays close after spiking big in the pre market and then selling off. I am not sure how this will play out (reaction wise to the release). Long term I think it's a winner no doubt.
Lets see, god luck
MAYBE some profit taking but should recover nicely IMO. I didn't see any bad or red flags in the CC.
Looks like it's off to the races.
Lots of buying going on. 8) Trading at 10.55 right now. Go GIGM >:D
GIGM did alright. :) Michael I was wondering what you thought of the conference call.
Alien
15 sides conference call transcript (detailed information):
http://ir.giga.net.tw/downloads/conference/1Q06%20Script-final.pdf
>:D >:D >:D
Oliver
I decided today to take some profit on GIGM and sold 50% of my holding at $10.20. Not because I perceive weakness in the chart, just wanted to balance my port and protect profits. I have remaining currently now at $9.45 Stop loss.
Ok... I shall fess up as well. I never sold any. GIGM was my pick for the last edition of the Stock Contest. I bought additional 20000 shares at $4.54 in the hope of winning the contest. The pick ended in the 4th place overall. In the current edition of the contest I was going to pick it again, however by the time I got around to it Sunday night I see that someone else had already picked GIGM and so I stayed out of the competition instead, not realizing that I can still pick the stock. I am happy that GIGM is currently in 2nd place and running very strong. I still have all my shares and there was never a doubt in my mind on what it will do.
I really think this stock CAN be another NTRI, BOOM, RIMM, etc. The potential is simply too enormous to ignore. Don't give up your shares too easily. It's all a game and there are way too many vultures out there that just want your shares on the cheap. Don't let them have it that easily. Take a look at the weekly chart, we're far from a selling point.
Quote from: netfishmademerich on May 12, 2006, 09:34:51 PM
I really think this stock CAN be another NTRI, BOOM, RIMM, etc. The potential is simply too enormous to ignore. Don't give up your shares too easily. It's all a game and there are way too many vultures out there that just want your shares on the cheap. Don't let them have it that easily. Take a look at the weekly chart, we're far from a selling point.
I agree the upside potential is there and the weekly chart is super strong, that's why i still hold 50% of my investment and will consider re-entries on any move above what is currently resistance in the $10.50 to $10.80 zone.
My sell is purely based on my own port mix and profit targets, banking 250% in 5 months is OK for me ;)
Good luck all
I still think days like last thursday and friday were selling by private investor traders like 3SoF and buying by longer term investors that see the big potential here. Deep pockets will want to support the pps to prevent technical damage and big selling.
Since I have held from the time picked by 3SoF (not 3SoValue), I have gone from 5% of my portfolio to 21% of my portfolio. I know people would recommend a rebalance, but I find that hard to do. Especially since I recently went to a large % cash that has no risk. I suspect there will be a significant market slide this summer, but I have no idea how much it will effect GIGM pps. I suspect the market will snap back in the winter and GIGM will ROAR!
GIGM really showed strength on Friday. It started the day following the market down but after a good lunch break it seems the traders had made their mind up and took the stock back up under good volume. We might however see some consolidation around 10 before we take the next step up the ladder.
Earnings is always a critical point for a stock that is up 100% over 2 months. A lot of investors decide to take profit either before or after earnings so to see new money flowing in is a very good sign.
We are still trading well above the ascending trend line, which now stands at 8.75.
GIGM: ThinkEquity Keeps @ Buy; Ups Tgt to $13 vs $11; Analyst Notes
Friday , May 12, 2006 09:33 ET
Issuer: GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM)
Analyst Firm: ThinkEquity Partners
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $13.00 (+18.18% from $11.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm points out that GigaMedia has made great progress in creating a comprehensive online entertainment destination platform focused on the high-growth markets in Asian and Europe. The company's record performance in Q1 is indicative to us of future trends and as such they are raising their estimates for FY06 and FY07. In addition to strong organic growth, they believe that there are number of near-term positive catalysts that will prove their current estimates conservative and warrant multiple expansion for the stock.
NEWS OUT >:D >:D >:D >:D >:D >:D
GigaMedia Sells ADSL Business; One-Time Gain Expected
Tuesday May 16, 6:02 am ET
New Giga Sharpens Focus on High-Margin Online Entertainment Business
TAIPEI, Taiwan, May 16 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) announced today the sale of its legacy ADSL Internet service provider ("ISP") business as part of its ongoing restructuring to focus on the high-margin, high-growth online entertainment sector.
Webs-TV Digital International Corporation, a Taiwan digital content provider ("Webs-TV") purchased the ADSL business from GigaMedia in an all cash transaction with total value of US$17.9 million, including approximately $9.7 million for the ADSL ISP unit and approximately $8.2 million in fees for bandwidth, consulting and other support services payable over a defined transition period.
The sale has immediate effect. GigaMedia expects to record a significant one-time gain in the second quarter as a result of the transaction.
"The ADSL business was a non-core legacy of the old Giga," explained GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. "Today we reaffirm our commitment to build the leading Asian online entertainment company."
Webs-TV's purchase includes GigaMedia's approximate 62,000 ADSL subscribers, certain fixed assets and the rights to use Giga's ADSL brand for a limited period of time.
GigaMedia will provide bandwidth, consulting and other support services to Webs-TV to facilitate the transition of the operations of the ADSL ISP business.
Through the end of 2006, the Company expects that revenues generated from the provision of such services will largely offset the decline in broadband ISP revenues resulting from this sale.
Today's sale does not affect Giga's consumer cable modem and corporate ISP businesses.
&
Co announced today the sale of its legacy ADSL Internet service provider business as part of its ongoing restructuring to focus on the high-margin, high-growth online entertainment sector. Webs-TV Digital International Corporation, a Taiwan digital content provider purchased the ADSL business from GigaMedia in an all cash transaction with total value of US$17.9 mln, including approximately $9.7 mln for the A.D.S.L. I.S.P. unit and approximately $8.2 mln in fees for bandwidth, consulting and other support services payable over a defined transition period. The sale has immediate effect. GigaMedia expects to record a significant one-time gain in the second quarter as a result of the transaction. Through the end of 2006, the Company expects that revenues generated from the provision of such services will largely offset the decline in broadband ISP revenues resulting from this sale. Today's sale does not affect Giga's consumer cable modem and corporate ISP businesses.
GIGM: ThinkEquity Keeps @ Buy; Ups Tgt to $13 vs $11; Analyst Notes
Friday , May 12, 2006 09:33 ET
Issuer: GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM)
Analyst Firm: ThinkEquity Partners
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $13.00 (+18.18% from $11.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm points out that GigaMedia has made great progress in creating a comprehensive online entertainment destination platform focused on the high-growth markets in Asian and Europe. The company's record performance in Q1 is indicative to us of future trends and as such they are raising their estimates for FY06 and FY07. In addition to strong organic growth, they believe that there are number of near-term positive catalysts that will prove their current estimates conservative and warrant multiple expansion for the stock.
NEWS OUT Evil Evil Evil Evil Evil Evil
GigaMedia Sells ADSL Business; One-Time Gain Expected
Tuesday May 16, 6:02 am ET
New Giga Sharpens Focus on High-Margin Online Entertainment Business
TAIPEI, Taiwan, May 16 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) announced today the sale of its legacy ADSL Internet service provider ("ISP") business as part of its ongoing restructuring to focus on the high-margin, high-growth online entertainment sector.
Webs-TV Digital International Corporation, a Taiwan digital content provider ("Webs-TV") purchased the ADSL business from GigaMedia in an all cash transaction with total value of US$17.9 million, including approximately $9.7 million for the ADSL ISP unit and approximately $8.2 million in fees for bandwidth, consulting and other support services payable over a defined transition period.
The sale has immediate effect. GigaMedia expects to record a significant one-time gain in the second quarter as a result of the transaction.
"The ADSL business was a non-core legacy of the old Giga," explained GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. "Today we reaffirm our commitment to build the leading Asian online entertainment company."
Webs-TV's purchase includes GigaMedia's approximate 62,000 ADSL subscribers, certain fixed assets and the rights to use Giga's ADSL brand for a limited period of time.
GigaMedia will provide bandwidth, consulting and other support services to Webs-TV to facilitate the transition of the operations of the ADSL ISP business.
Through the end of 2006, the Company expects that revenues generated from the provision of such services will largely offset the decline in broadband ISP revenues resulting from this sale.
Today's sale does not affect Giga's consumer cable modem and corporate ISP businesses.
Quote from: la-onda on May 16, 2006, 06:56:05 AM
GIGM: ThinkEquity Keeps @ Buy; Ups Tgt to $13 vs $11; Analyst Notes
Friday , May 12, 2006 09:33 ET
Oliver,
If GIGM rallies on the upgrade, watch how it reacts at the top of the Bearish Rising Wedge, which comes in today at 10.93, and rises $0.05/per day. It could go through the top of the pattern some, like TMTA did, but watch for signs of failure: inability to hold an upside breakout, then a takeout of the bottom of the pattern.
As the pattern stands, it "could be" terminal on the upside, short-term:
1. GIGM has rallied parabolically 176% into the Rising Wedge since the double bottom at 3.90 without a correction. Players might "sell into strength" on a rally to the top of the Rising Wedge. A break of the pattern to the downside (depending on the point of the break) would measure to about the 8.27-8.40 gap.
2. The technicals are weakening. The 13/21 RSIs completed a H&S Top yesterday. If GIGM rallies on the upgrade, the 13 RSI likely will rally back to the broken neckline, then turn down again if GIGM can't sustain a rally above the Rising Wedge. (I'll show you the RSI chart next).
3. The market has been rough lately. If we get much more weakness, GIGM could break to the downside purely on profit-taking to protect the outstanding gains, and to offset losses in other stocks.
13/21RSI
GIGM looks a bit vulnerable in that Bearish Rising Wedge I posted this morning. They tend to "throw the baby out with the bathwather" in a general market Smackdown like we're experiencing, so GIGM could take a hit along with everything else.
GIGM rallied to 10.30 in the early going today. It's back to UNCH, at 9.85. MACD likely will cross below its signal line today, so that's at least another caution (along with the H&S Top in the 13/21 RSIs).
Might not hurt to protect some profits here.
The press release this morning is better than I even had dared hoping for. Not only did GIGM get rid of their legacy business with low growth and low margins but they did that realizing a healthy profit. Under normal circumstances the good news would end here but this is GIGM and the press release continues:
QuoteGigaMedia will provide bandwidth, consulting and other support services to Webs-TV to facilitate the transition of the operations of the ADSL ISP business. Through the end of 2006, the Company expects that revenues generated from the provision of such services will largely offset the decline in broadband ISP revenues resulting from this sale.
So let us just repeat this. They have sold a legacy business that has hold them back for a considerable once off profit and they expect that the revenue they generate from providing services to the buyer will largely be the same as the revenue of the business they have sold. I really love this management team :)
MIA
The forgotten GIGM Thread...The Original
Started by the One and Only....."EliteG".
GigaMedia Q1 Net Profit Up 210%: Best-Ever Quarterly Performance
Thursday May 11, 8:01 am ET
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
3.60%above 13-day EMA
32.22%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 2
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $520.90
P/E Ratio: 80.28
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A
Press Release Source: GigaMedia Limited
GigaMedia Sells ADSL Business; One-Time Gain Expected
Tuesday May 16, 6:02 am ET
New Giga Sharpens Focus on High-Margin Online Entertainment Business
TAIPEI, Taiwan, May 16 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) announced today the sale of its legacy ADSL Internet service provider ("ISP") business as part of its ongoing restructuring to focus on the high-margin, high-growth online entertainment sector.
Webs-TV Digital International Corporation, a Taiwan digital content provider ("Webs-TV") purchased the ADSL business from GigaMedia in an all cash transaction with total value of US$17.9 million, including approximately $9.7 million for the ADSL ISP unit and approximately $8.2 million in fees for bandwidth, consulting and other support services payable over a defined transition period.
The sale has immediate effect. GigaMedia expects to record a significant one-time gain in the second quarter as a result of the transaction.
"The ADSL business was a non-core legacy of the old Giga," explained GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. "Today we reaffirm our commitment to build the leading Asian online entertainment company."
Webs-TV's purchase includes GigaMedia's approximate 62,000 ADSL subscribers, certain fixed assets and the rights to use Giga's ADSL brand for a limited period of time.
GigaMedia will provide bandwidth, consulting and other support services to Webs-TV to facilitate the transition of the operations of the ADSL ISP business.
Through the end of 2006, the Company expects that revenues generated from the provision of such services will largely offset the decline in broadband ISP revenues resulting from this sale.
Today's sale does not affect Giga's consumer cable modem and corporate ISP businesses.
About GigaMedia
GigaMedia Limited (Singapore registration number: 199905474H) is a major provider of online entertainment software and services. Through its subsidiary Cambridge Entertainment Software Limited, GigaMedia develops software for online entertainment services, including the global online gaming market. GigaMedia's FunTown game portal is a leading Asian casual game portal and the world's largest online MahJong game site in terms of revenue. GigaMedia also operates a broadband ISP providing Internet access services to consumer and corporate subscribers in Taiwan. More information on GigaMedia can be obtained at www.gigamedia.com.tw .
The statements included above and elsewhere in this press release that are not historical in nature are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. GigaMedia cautions readers that forward-looking statements are based on the Company's current expectations and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements. Information as to certain factors that could cause actual results to vary can be found in GigaMedia's Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2005.
For further information contact:
Brad Miller
Investor Relations Director
Tel: +886-2-3518-1107
Email:
[email protected]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: GigaMedia Limited
I am interested in going long on GIGM but brought at 10.
After seeing 1Q profits were tripled, I expected the price to rocket, but it really hasn't. Has a lot of this already been priced into the stock?
Also, what are your suggestions on going LONG?
hi,
please try the search functionality, there are alreday GIGM boards existing
;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 16, 2006, 03:39:10 PM
GIGM looks a bit vulnerable in that Bearish Rising Wedge I posted this morning. They tend to "throw the baby out with the bathwather" in a general market Smackdown like we're experiencing, so GIGM could take a hit along with everything else.
GIGM rallied to 10.30 in the early going today. It's back to UNCH, at 9.85. MACD likely will cross below its signal line today, so that's at least another caution (along with the H&S Top in the 13/21 RSIs).
Might not hurt to protect some profits here.
Shorted GIGM today at 10.19. Stop: 10.61, two pennies above the May 12 high. Risk: a loss of 4.1%
I shorted this as a day trade, but held onto it when GIGM closed back below the Bearish Rising Wedge (not show on this chart...don't have today's data).
Reason for the short:
1. The Bearish Rising Wedge.
GIGM broke below it on an intraday basis on Tuesday, and closed below it yesterday by about one penny. This morning, GIGM rallied to 10.27, three cents below Tuesday's high of 10.30 (the day it broke the Bearish Rising Wedge), then started to fade.
2. We got the MACD cross below its signal line that I mentioned, on Tuesday (see chart above).
3. We've got a H&S Top in the 13/21 RSIs (see chart above)
4. GIGM hasn't responded to the "good news" the morning of May 16, about selling the ADSL business.
Quote from: setravis on April 02, 2006, 03:59:04 PM
I fail to understand... ::)
I counted 9 different threads started on this stock, "and a new one today".
setravis,
My apologies. I read your post yesterday and went back a bit, and found this quote. I didn't realize that this thread even existed, yet it has a lot of posts!
I've always posted in the GIGM:My Pick folder, which is about 3 times more active than this folder, and recently, I responded to Oliver's post on GIGM. I posted in there just now for easy reference, since I posted several charts there this week.
Again, I'm sorry for any confusion. I understand your frustration with multiple folders. Hope that you're having a great time on your vacation!
Trying to short GIGM but I'm always getting this >:( I could have shorted it last monday @ $10.42
What is ur broker Melf?
SECURITY NOT AVAILABLE The security you are attempting to sell short is currently unavailable. Your order cannot be accepted at this time. If you have any questions, please contact an Account Officer at 1-800-934-4448.
Quote from: Terliso on May 19, 2006, 12:18:07 AM
Trying to short GIGM but I'm always getting this >:( I could have shorted it last monday @ $10.42
What is ur broker Melf?
SECURITY NOT AVAILABLE The security you are attempting to sell short is currently unavailable. Your order cannot be accepted at this time. If you have any questions, please contact an Account Officer at 1-800-934-4448.
When I get that Terliso I just call the broker and they try to obtain shares for me.. but in my opinion with a mkt bounce/news tomorrow.. GIGM is ready for a powerful squeeze rally(straight to 15).. be cautious guys. ;)
Quote from: eliteG on May 19, 2006, 01:08:21 AM
When I get that Terliso I just call the broker and they try to obtain shares for me..
Thanks G, I will try to do that ;)
Quote from: eliteG on May 19, 2006, 01:08:21 AM
but in my opinion with a mkt bounce/news tomorrow.. GIGM is ready for a powerful squeeze rally(straight to 15).. be cautious guys. ;)
I hope you are right that the market will bounce tomorrow. ;)
Right now Nasdaq is sitting @ support from the Ascending Triangle breakout that happened during October of 2005 & gave back all its gains in just 15 sessions from that breakout... As I see it Nasdaq is very weak :(
Quote from: Terliso on May 19, 2006, 12:18:07 AM
Trying to short GIGM but I'm always getting this >:( I could have shorted it last monday @ $10.42
What is ur broker Melf?
SECURITY NOT AVAILABLE The security you are attempting to sell short is currently unavailable. Your order cannot be accepted at this time. If you have any questions, please contact an Account Officer at 1-800-934-4448.
Alister,
I get that message a lot from both brokers that use: Scottrade and TDAmeritrade. Sometimes, later on, shares are available, so try your order again. Or, you can call them, as G. suggested.
Quote from: eliteG on May 19, 2006, 01:08:21 AM
but in my opinion with a mkt bounce/news tomorrow.. GIGM is ready for a powerful squeeze rally(straight to 15).. be cautious guys. ;)
Thanks, G. Just a trade on the Wedge break and weak short-term technicals. I planned to stop it out for a 4% loss, barring a gap up, but I'm not going to give it that much room.
Initially, I thought that GIGM would rally to the top of the Bearish Rising Wedge on that analyst upgrade that Oliver mentioned, or on the ADSL sale. Instead:
1. Tuesday's rally fizzled at 10.30.
2. Wednesday it closed below the Bearish Rising Wedge
3. Thursday, another rally to 10.27 that fizzled, with another close below the wedge.
The bottom of the wedge comes in today at 10.1975, right where I shorted it. A print above that puts GIGM back inside the wedge. If it goes through
10.27-10.30 where the two rallies fizzled, looking strong, I'll cover well below my 10.61 planned stop.
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 19, 2006, 05:46:05 AM
If it goes through 10.27-10.30 where the two rallies fizzled, looking strong, I'll cover well below my 10.61 planned stop.
Another strong reason for covering strength above 10-27-10.30 is that, while the short-term 13/21 RSIs put in a Bearish H&S Top (see that chart posted earlier this week), the more intermediate-term 34/55 RSIs have come into Bullish Synchronicity.
Yesterday's high was 10.27, so 10.27 becomes a "buy pivot," meaning that a print of 10.28 is a technical buy signal from the 34/55RSI indicator. As with any indicator, we have to decide whether or not we want to take the signal.
In this case, I won't buy it because I don't like the pattern, but GIGM easily could rally back to the top of the wedge, or beyond it, like TMTA and GEMS, so I'll cover strength through the 10.27-10.30 area. My entry short was based on the fact GIGM broke
below the pattern. I don't want to get squeezed to the top of the pattern.
Bearish Rising Wedges can be trick, and difficult to play. (I'll show you GEMS next).
GEMS - Bearish Rising Wedge example.
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 18, 2006, 06:01:22 PM
Shorted GIGM today at 10.19. Stop: 10.61, two pennies above the May 12 high. Risk: a loss of 4.1%
Covered ½ my GIGM short at 9.15. Gain: 10.2%
Whew...that came down
fast this morning!
nice trade melf... I screwed up and bought 1k more at 9.14 thinking it was going to hit below 9. Im doing good now though :) 9.16
I see string supprt at 9.... after thatit should cut like butter:P
Still shirt.. initiated short at $9.78
Cheers....
TMTA/GIGM.. The rasing wedge is beginning to be a godd friend of mine...
Thanks MELF....................
B
Quote from: nullzero on May 19, 2006, 10:58:42 AM
nice trade melf... I screwed up and bought 1k more at 9.14 thinking it was going to hit below 9.
nullzero,
Thanks. Yeah, you want to be careful about your entries. Applause for your honesty with yourself about that, and for sharing it.
See the bottom trendline of the Bearish Rising Wedge? You want to short relatively close to that, like you did iniitally. Once it falls away from that like it did this morning, you're putting yourself at a disadvantange on the trade, the farther away it falls. You're giving up more and more of the profit that you would have had, shorting closer to the pattern breakdown. Same with breakouts on long positions.
I don't mean just GIGM. Any short.
Quote
Im doing good now though :) 9.16
Great! I hope it's a winner for you.
Quote from: beroznikmal on May 19, 2006, 11:10:59 AM
Still shirt.. initiated short at $9.78
B.,
So far, so good! Be sure to have a stop. Nothing wrong with taking partial profits, either.
QuoteTMTA/GIGM.. The rasing wedge is beginning to be a godd friend of mine...
Thanks MELF....................
If you keep this up, you'll be able to write a book on Rising Wedges. ;D >:D
Quote
Quote
ESLR would of been a great short this morning or yesterday.
Quote from: nullzero on May 19, 2006, 12:02:21 PM
ESLR would of been a great short this morning or yesterday.
nullzero,
You're reading my mind...I just was looking at ESLR. It's taken out the low of those two Doji Stars, at the 200DMA. The market is
wicked this week.
Personally, I don't like to short stocks that are this far into a move. The place to have shorted it, in my opinion, was early May after the Bull Trap fakeout that got me, when ESLR went back below the neckline of the H&S Top.
I can read minds what can I say ;). I feel bad gave you opinion to cover back then the way it was looking at the time it was bullish but like you said was a bull trap.
Quote from: nullzero on May 19, 2006, 12:18:04 PM
I can read minds what can I say ;).
Psychicnullzero,
;D ;D ;D
Quote
I feel bad gave you opinion to cover back then the way it was looking at the time it was bullish but like you said was a bull trap.
Thanks, but don't feel bad at all. I agreed with your opinion, and I still do.
I always respect a takeout of a Right Shoulder in a H&S Top, even if it turns out to be a Bull Trap, like ESLR. I cover it because if it
isn't a Bull Trap, you can get squeezed
horribly, if it really is bullish.
GIGM is an excellent case in point.
GIGM put in a DOUBLE neckline of a H&S Top in early February, at 3.90. The Right Shoulder was 4.96.
Look what happened when GIGM gapped above the Right Shoulder, on March 20. Imagine remaining short, and NOT covering the print of 4.97, above the Right Shoulder...4.98, above the Left Shoulder!
:o :o :o
HONOR THY STOPS!
yes no question that is my problem... hehe if you read my thread I loose myself not selling when i should with max loss.
Quote from: nullzero on May 19, 2006, 12:49:30 PM
yes no question that is my problem... hehe if you read my thread I loose myself not selling when i should with max loss.
nullzero,
Very common mistake. "If I don't sell, it isn't a loss...maybe it will bounce back...etc." Very costly, too. I find it best to "steel yourself to your own emotions," and HONOR THY STOP. It hurts to take a loss, but you "live to play another day."
I bought GIGM today @ 9.19 and sold at 9.40.. but I have been watching and there is a big buyer just taking on as much shares as he can @ 9.40.. again shorts keep an eye out. ;)
hi,
i shorted today at960 and closed at 927. had to go to work.
small profit in this market,
maxi
im still short... been short since open:P will close position shortly:P
Quote from: eliteG on May 19, 2006, 03:00:22 PM
I bought GIGM today @ 9.19 and sold at 9.40.. but I have been watching and there is a big buyer just taking on as much shares as he can @ 9.40..
G.,
Nice trade, and thank you for all of your yeoman's work in David's absence. (Applauded earlier). What an awful, awful week and a half (excepting today...whew!)
Quote
again shorts keep an eye out. ;)
Here's what my eye is seeing, so far. ;)
1. Did the Bearish Wedge break to the downside? Yes. On Wednesday.
2. Did the second rally attempt to get back inside the Bearish Wedge fail? Yes, it failed at 10.27.
3. Did it close again, below the Bearish Rising Wedge? Yes. On Thursday.
4. Was the H&S Top in the 13/21RSI confirmed, by price moving down? Yes. Today.
5. Did the stock go down when MACD crossed below its signal line? Yes. Today.
6. Did the stock react well to great earnings? No. That was the top, so far.
7. Did the stock react well to the analyst upgrade that Oliver posted? No.
8. Did the stock react well to the sale of the ADSL business? No.
9. Did the stock bounce today, off the bullish synchronicity in the 34/55 RSI? No.
10. Did the stock bounce today, in an overall up market. No.
I'm
definitely keeping my eye out for anything over 10.30, because I'll be stopped out for 1.2% loss on that ½ position, unless the danged thing gaps up on me.
;D >:D
But I did have a 10.2% gain in the other ½ postion, so that will ease the blow a bit.
;D
Go and have a good weekend! You have to be exhausted, more than the rest of us, for all of the burden that you shoulder around here. I greatly appreciate all of your hard work!
Im still short in GIGM 1/2 at 9.71 and 1/2 at 9.30... holder over weekend my stop is at 9.57 hopefully I dont get knocked out.
-- The Bull Measured move for GIGM has met, GIGM needs to retrace.
-- GIGM still a good short to own my estimated target would be about $7.90 to $7.50
New to the site here and I just wanted to say how helpful your charts are Terl, the graphics are great. I finally opened a margin account and am now able to short stocks and your knowledge and charts are helping me to learn what to look for. Thanks for all of your insight :)
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 19, 2006, 06:35:27 PM
Quote from: eliteG on May 19, 2006, 03:00:22 PM
I bought GIGM today @ 9.19 and sold at 9.40.. but I have been watching and there is a big buyer just taking on as much shares as he can @ 9.40..
G.,
Nice trade, and thank you for all of your yeoman's work in David's absence. (Applauded earlier). What an awful, awful week and a half (excepting today...whew!)
Quote
again shorts keep an eye out. ;)
Here's what my eye is seeing, so far. ;)
1. Did the Bearish Wedge break to the downside? Yes. On Wednesday.
2. Did the second rally attempt to get back inside the Bearish Wedge fail? Yes, it failed at 10.27.
3. Did it close again, below the Bearish Rising Wedge? Yes. On Thursday.
4. Was the H&S Top in the 13/21RSI confirmed, by price moving down? Yes. Today.
5. Did the stock go down when MACD crossed below its signal line? Yes. Today.
6. Did the stock react well to great earnings? No. That was the top, so far.
7. Did the stock react well to the analyst upgrade that Oliver posted? No.
8. Did the stock react well to the sale of the ADSL business? No.
9. Did the stock bounce today, off the bullish synchronicity in the 34/55 RSI? No.
10. Did the stock bounce today, in an overall up market. No.
I'm definitely keeping my eye out for anything over 10.30, because I'll be stopped out for 1.2% loss on that ½ position, unless the danged thing gaps up on me.
;D >:D
But I did have a 10.2% gain in the other ½ postion, so that will ease the blow a bit.
;D
Go and have a good weekend! You have to be exhausted, more than the rest of us, for all of the burden that you shoulder around here. I greatly appreciate all of your hard work!
Thank you Melf! :) It was a tough week... no doubt but we live on to fight another day. 8)
Great analysis on GIGM and great trade! The shorts definately have a setup in GIGM.
This is my view on the chart.. after witnessing many momentum, short-trigger and wild moves I feel GIGM's strength lies in the contrarian position(long) at this point.. and while shorts defiantely have a setup technically(as your chart shows) .. I feel with the 20ema pierce and the increase in volume yesterday that GIGM is set for a runaway gap chain reaction type rally that could send it to 15. I have no position in GIGM though just a theory. :D
G.,
Thanks for taking the time to post your fine analysis. It's always good to look at both sides.
Quote
I feel GIGM's strength lies in the contrarian position(long) at this point..
When Alister posted that he couldn't find any shares to short, I figured that GIGM must have HUGE short interest. Surprisingly, there is almost NO short interest. Only 0.59% of the float is short, which suggests that the contrarian position is short.
GIGM $ 9.34
GigaMedia Ltd. -0.37
Shares Short 208,819
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 0.1
Short % of Float 0.59 % Short % Increase/Decrease 84.90 %
Squeeze Ranking™ 0 Shares Short -Prior Mo 112,938
Outstanding Shares 50,301,268
Float 35,450,000
% Held by Insiders 8.68 %
% Held by Institutions 7.30 %
EPS 0.16
PE Ratio 60.70
Sector: Technology
Industry: Internet Service Providers
SI Record Date 2006-Apr
Exchange NSD
On Friday, GIGM found support at 9.06, above the 8.96 base of the Bearish Rising Wedge. It's not uncommon for Bearish Rising Wedges to "morph" (change) into a H&S Top.
If that's the case here, the neckline is 8.96 and 9.06, or whatever low we put in near 8.96 on Monday or Tuesday, if we re-test it, and if it doesn't break.
GIGM would then need to rally to put in a Right Shoulder, then break the neckline (see arrows on the chart).
All speculation at this point, of course. Isn't it all? ;D
If that scenario eventuates, I'll have to think about raising my stop another 2%, since the Left Shoulder is at 10.49. The Right Shoulder should be "something" below that, but 10.27-10.30 could get taken out nominally, even though the Squeeze Ranking is zero.
Quote
Aha but the date of your short data is April.. Market topped in May ;) .. I dont think it is a heavy short position but a dramatic increase recently in tiny lots(small traders) that the Market Makers may take advantage of.
But of course most of the technicals point down.. it will be an interesting one to watch for sure... goodluck Melf. 8)
Quote from: nullzero on May 19, 2006, 08:13:08 PM
Im still short in GIGM 1/2 at 9.71 and 1/2 at 9.30... holder over weekend my stop is at 9.57 hopefully I dont get knocked out.
nullzero,
Let's try this: pretend that we're playing a game of basketball, and that at the opening bell on Monday, GIGM is going to shoot a foul shot.
Bulls and Bears have to line up on both sides of the key,
behind the line. If anyone is caught inside the key (with their stop) when GIGM opens (shoots the foul shot), they get called for a foul (stopped out).
Bears line up above 10.27-10.30. That's last "known resistance," before and after GIGM broke below the Bearish Rising Wedge, so they're behind that line (with their stop).
Bulls line up below 8.96-9.06. That's last "known support," so bulls are below that line (with their stop).
Anything in between those two lines is the "danger zone" for both bulls and bears alike, because they can get called for a foul (easily stopped out). It isn't support. It isn't resistance. It's kind of a neutral trading zone for GIGM, like we saw on Friday, and it's a danger zone to have stops in there.
Friday, GIGM opened at 9.86...went to 9.92...tanked to 9.06...rallied to UNCH, at 9.71, tanked again... rallied some more...
That's called "range-bound" trading. Support isn't broken, nor is resistance.
Sorry for the lousy analogy, but you're standing right smack in the middle of the 8.96-9.06 to 10.27-10.30 range with your 9.57 stop, if you see what I mean. GIGM could do nothing more than "run around" in that range again on Monday (the analogy just became
awful) in "range-bound," fairly meaningless trading, but you're very likely to get stopped out at the "average price" of the trading range between support and resistance.
Just a suggestion: Your average cost is $9.505. GIGM closed at $9.34. You're badly positioned in the trade, but you've "got some room" still to have a gain. If it looks like GIGM is going to tank and break support at the open, you're okay. If it looks uneventful, but GIGM is heading higher into the 9.40s, toward your 9.57 stop, you might want to think about abandoning the trade with a small gain, and regrouping. You also might want to think about just getting out of there right at the open, unless it looks bad for GIGM.
My analogy was so horrible, I might want to think about just deleting this post. ;D
Quote from: eliteG on May 20, 2006, 01:01:16 PM
Aha but the date of your short data is April.. Market topped in May ;) .. I dont think it is a heavy short position but a dramatic increase recently in tiny lots(small traders) that the Market Makers may take advantage of.
G.,
Aha! I didn't think of that...good one! ;D
Those data are collected as of the 15th, I believe, and reported near the end of the month. During this reporting period, GIGM rallied almost parabolically, with only two significant down days in early May, prior to the May 11 earnings top.
It will be interesting to see what percentage of the float is suicidal, shorting into a parabolic rally, won't it?
;D >:D
With all you folks throwing out your theories, I figured why not me?? So here's my take on the chart:
1.) Short term (atleast in the next 1 week), the chart tells me this is going down...first level of support is to fill the gap around $8.30'ish and then let's see if the chart's indicators say it has bottomed out.
2.) The scenario on the chart right now is eerily similar (indicators and price action) to the period during late January and early February - the price topped out at the upper end of the B-band and the RSI, MACD and stochastics give a good indication of a pullback.
3.) What happened next during that period was support at the lower end of the B-band in mid-February at $3.90, but that was not sufficient pullback, the price went back up just a little bit before channeling out and finding real support at the 50 MA in the $4.10 range
4.) The chart tells me something similar will happen - even though a bounce at the $8.30'ish level (to fill the gap) does seem like it'll happen, real support will be at the 50 MA until which churning action will likely take place.
5.) The MACD, RSI and stochastics are still trending down and the chart tells me that's gonna continue.
6.) Friday's action with high volume tells me the bears have gotten in charge (inspite of closing above the 20 MA), and that there is more downside action to continue.
I have no position and am just interested in taking part in the dialogue on GIGM.
good luck to all that have positions. ;)
Quote from: AussieTrader on May 12, 2006, 08:30:07 PM
I decided today to take some profit on GIGM and sold 50% of my holding at $10.20. Not because I perceive weakness in the chart, just wanted to balance my port and protect profits. I have remaining currently now at $9.45 Stop loss.
I stopped out on my remaing 50%. Which is just fine for me.
I'll buy stop back in at $10.50+ (when and if the momo returns) or look for support if pullback continues which could be anywhere from $7.50 to $9.00 zone.
Good luck
Quote from: Charger on May 20, 2006, 10:29:28 AM
New to the site here and I just wanted to say how helpful your charts are Terl, the graphics are great. I finally opened a margin account and am now able to short stocks and your knowledge and charts are helping me to learn what to look for. Thanks for all of your insight :)
Welcome to 3SOF charger...best site on the planet ;)
Melf Elf,
I really liked your analogy. ;) Anytime you can relate stock transactions to the world of sports it can be most helpful. It gave me something to think about as I continue to trade GIGM.
Thanks.....Alien
Quote from: alien41 on May 21, 2006, 10:04:20 AM
Melf Elf,
I really liked your analogy. ;) Anytime you can relate stock transactions to the world of sports it can be most helpful. It gave me something to think about as I continue to trade GIGM.
Thanks.....Alien
Alien,
Thanks, I appreciate that, especially since the analogy went awry when GIGM started running back and forth to both sides of the key.
;D >:D
I often thinking of the charts in terms of sports, particularly football. Bulls and Bears. Offense and Defense...
At the opening bell on Friday, the Bulls started off from the line of scrimmage at the 9.71 yard line, threw a pass where it was
intercepted by the Bears at the 9.92 yard line... Melf Elf jumping out of his seat in the stands...CHEERING loudly...
Bears run it back toward the goal line at 8.96,
but fumble at the 9.06 yard line and don't score!! Melf Elf in the stands, CURSING, and covering ½ his short
Bulls take the fumble and return the ball all the way to their initial line of scrimmage, at the 9.71 yard line...
You can see that the market has turned me into a crazy elf, alien. ;D >:D
OK,
I'm gonna throw a completely different situation into the fray and see what you guys think. I've been in GIGM since 5.90, and quite happily rode the big rise for a substantial gain, selling half at 10.30. Have been sitting on the other half and actually added a bit more in the high 9's last week as I thought this consolidation wuld break to the upside as ascending support came into play. Guess I was wrong as GIGM broke down through it on Friday :P. So, my cost basis at the moment is about $7, which means I am still healthily up on it for the remainder, but I don't want to see these profits get eaten away. Long term, I'm still bullish on GIGM, and think that it could easily move up towards $15, but could well require some consolidation in this range for a month or more before its next leg up.
It seems like most of you (Melf, Elite) are short term bearish on GIGM and think it has more to give on the downside. What I'm toying with right now is whether to get out within range here and wait for it to make up its mind (either up or down) or hang in a bit longer until I get a clear sell-side signal (i.e. a break of 8.96 support).
Basically just curious what other slightly longer term longs are thinking here.
Scotsman ;)
Scottish - I'm short-term powerful pop possibility bullish ;)
Melf - great analogy :D.. if we could only get a play by play real-time, lol
Quote from: ScottishTrader on May 21, 2006, 12:03:34 PM
It seems like most of you (Melf, Elite) are short term bearish on GIGM and think it has more to give on the downside. What I'm toying with right now is whether to get out within range here and wait for it to make up its mind (either up or down) or hang in a bit longer until I get a clear sell-side signal (i.e. a break of 8.96 support).
Scotsman,
What a nice postion you're in...good going!
We're closer to breaking 8.96 support than we are to taking out 10.27-10.30 resistance, so the Bears have field position here at the 9.34 close.
The Bears, however, couldn't score on Friday by taking out 8.96 support, which I didn't expect in just one day. The Bears already scored once, by breaking the Bearish Falling Wedge. Given how strong GIGM has been, two back-to-back scores didn't seem favored.
Quote from: eliteG on May 21, 2006, 01:13:51 PM
Scottish - I'm short-term powerful pop possibility bullish ;)
I'm leaning toward a short-term pop, too, for the reason just stated, because a pop is necessary if GIGM is going "morph" into a H&S Top (It needs a pop to form the Right Shoulder),and because a "Relief Rally" in the general market after Friday's reversal very well could be in the offing early this week.
I'm going to get a feel for things tomorrow morning, but I'm probably going to cover my remaining ½ position short, and look to re-enter near 10.00, or better.
Back to your situation...
Since we're so close to the Bears' End Zone (8.96) at the 9.34 close and you didn't sell, it isn't going to cost you much to see if the Bears score, by taking out 8.96.
Your reward for holding is the Bulls taking the ball back to Friday's opening line of scrimmage, at 9.71, or up to 10.00+ (to form a Right Shoulder), or back toward another attempt to score above 10.27-10.30 resistance. All of that is "neutral" territory. The Bulls don't even have to score for you to have what I would rate as a 1:1 risk/reward, and probably better.
If Bears score, you sell below 8.96, which is a loss of 4.07% from here.
if the Bulls take it to Friday morning's line of scrimmage, at 9.71, your gain is 4.07%
Risk:Reward is 1:1
If Bulls can take the ball to 10.09 (very possible for the Right Shoulder), your gain is 8%
Risk:Reward is 1:2.
If the Bulls can take the ball to 10.46 (just below the Left Shoulder), your gain is 12%.
Risk:Reward 1:3.
Your worst case is a gap down below 8.96, of course. You can't defend against that for Monday, but you can beyond Monday.
Good luck, Scotsman, and it's good to see you!
Quote
Melf - great analogy :D.. if we could only get a play by play real-time, lol
G.,
Now-w-w see what you and alien have started!?
Don't encourage me, or I'll have to start a thread called STOCKBALL.
;D >:D
Alister and Vic,
Thanks for your analyses. Applauds. Alister, your graphics crack me up. ;D >:D
covered GIGM at 8.90 avg. it sprang up to fast for me to cover at 8.50s-8.70s ;(
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 19, 2006, 09:56:39 AM
Covered ½ my GIGM short at 9.15. Gain: 10.2%
Covered remaining ½ position short at 8.54. Gain: 16.2%
We're close to filling the 8.40 gap and GIGM has come down a lot in just a couple of days. Covered.
Nice trade melf elf, I jumped ship to early at 8.90 :(
Yes. Down from 10 to 8.5 in a few days. Nice. No shares availble to short in Fido last week either. Would not like to see it break the 50dma's but has been a violent few days. I guess the VXN is going to 25 :-\
Quote from: nullzero on May 22, 2006, 10:45:24 AM
Nice trade melf elf, I jumped ship to early at 8.90 :(
nullzero,
Great, you made some $$$!!
Yeah, normally you wouldn't cover at 8.90. Breaking 8.96-9.06 support was a SCORE for the Bears, so you wouldn't cover so close to the successful break of support. That would be like selling a stock right after it broke out to the upside. A breakout in either direction is what we're wanting, so we wouldn't sell (or in this case, cover) right afterwards.
That's fine, though. You were in a difficult position with your entry (standing in the middle of the key ;D), and you didn't want it coming back in your face. And, I understand that it difficult at first, thinking "upside down" on a short postion.
Quote from: SmartWrasse on May 22, 2006, 10:47:18 AM
No shares availble to short in Fido last week either.
That's hard to understand since only ½% of the float in GIGM was short in mid-April. Even if the short interest is up a lot in May, it still shouldn't be that difficult to short it. When I shorted CKCM on earnings, 40% of the float was short, but I had no problem shorting it.
GIGM's float is four times that of CKCM's. Why are there so many brokers who won't allow a short in GIGM? That makes me suspicious, but then
everything about the market makes me suspicious.
??? ::)
The Bears not only scored near the open, taking out 8.96-9.06 support, they scored again in just two hours: The 8.40 Gap Target MADE.
I don't see any news, so I guess the weakness that we were seeing as of Friday's close simply is playing out. Weak technicals, and weak response to the fundamentals:
1. Did the Bearish Wedge break to the downside? Yes. On Wednesday.
2. Did the second rally attempt to get back inside the Bearish Wedge fail? Yes, it failed at 10.27.
3. Did it close again, below the Bearish Rising Wedge? Yes. On Thursday.
4. Was the H&S Top in the 13/21RSI confirmed, by price moving down? Yes. Today.
5. Did the stock go down when MACD crossed below its signal line? Yes. Today.
6. Did the stock react well to great earnings? No. That was the top, so far.
7. Did the stock react well to the analyst upgrade that Oliver posted? No.
8. Did the stock react well to the sale of the ADSL business? No.
9. Did the stock bounce today, off the bullish synchronicity in the 34/55 RSI? No.
10. Did the stock bounce today, in an overall up market. No.
The 8.14 low here is within four cents of the 8.10 Bearish Wedge target being MADE, so if anyone still is short and hasn't covered, the Bears have scored three times today, so you might want at least to take some. Math is on the chart.
Another basketball analogy. GIGM looks like Kobe Bryant did in the second half of Game 7 against the Suns.
Is 3SOV riding their position with no stop?
Well Melf Elf it appears the Bears were unstoppable today. >:D I got taken out of the game early on. I guess I'll be sitting on the sidelines until the coach or the chart/market says it's okay to get back into the game. I'm guessing there still may be some down side to this play. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. I see the 50dma is sitting at 7.35.
Lucas I believe the 3SOV had a stop loss at 8.00. So I believe the position was closed today.
GLTA....Alien
Melf,
Thanks very much for your advice yesterday, ubfortunately I wasn't really given much chance in the matter. As ever I hung on a little too long today, looking for support to kick in and a potential bounce, but when 8.40 broke, the game was up so to speak and I closed my long position. Good play on your short, at least you made some on what i lost ;)
This nasty market is really forcing me to have another think about what I'm doing and how I've been trading lately as I have been down a lot in recent weeks, despite some gains (like in gigm). Ugh. maybe I need to get a margin account so I cna get in on the shorting - looks to bbe just about the only way anyone is making money right now - I mean just look at the stock picking contest!!!
Anyway, I do think GIGM will gather steam once again, but am not putting any estimate on when or at what level we may get a buy signal. 50DMA may be a good starting point, but in this weakness a breakdown into the 7s looks pretty likely.
Anyway, cheers for now,
the Scotsman
Quote from: alien41 on May 22, 2006, 06:38:36 PM
Well Melf Elf it appears the Bears were unstoppable today. >
alien,
TRULY unstoppdabe. I never got a chance to re-enter, short. THREE touchdowns; straight down.
WHOA!!
Quote
I got taken out of the game early on. I guess I'll be sitting on the sidelines until the coach or the chart/market says it's okay to get back into the game
Aw-w=w, CRAP! (We need a "Cursing Face" on the toolbar that is inaubile, so that no one's sensitives are offended)
Quote
I'm guessing there still may be some down side to this play.
Yeah, "could be," but I don't like to guess. I like to play the patterns and the targets.
Quote
Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
ALL 3 downside targets MADE today.
THREE touchdowns. Very unusual, in just one day. Victory to the Bears, no question.
Quote
I see the 50dma is sitting at 7.35.
Yeah, but I'm no help at all to you with that. "Maybe." "Maybe not." My THREE downside targets MADE, so I'm done. I'd only be guessing what's in store from here. I haven't got any more downside targets IN PLAY.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on May 22, 2006, 07:08:31 PM
Melf,
Thanks very much for your advice yesterday, ubfortunately I wasn't really given much chance in the matter. As ever I hung on a little too long today, looking for support to kick in and a potential bounce, but when 8.40 broke, the game was up so to speak and I closed my long position. Good play on your short, at least you made some on what i lost ;)
Scotsman,
Awww-ww, CRAP. You still have a very nice gain, though. Good for you!
Quote
Quote
Excellent move for shorts today >:D congrats!
Great charting Melf! 8) You da man ..Elf!
are "we" still holding GIGM for long term?
What exactly is the TA stop?
tia
Oliver
Seems remenisciently similar to what NXXI just did. Might be worth looking for a basing day or two before it rebounds up to the 9.00 level on a relief rally.
Hi Oliver,
GIGM was sold yesterday at 8.00 according to the trading plan. It is really sad to let such a great company go but preservation of wealth have to take priority especially in a bearish market like this.
We will be back when GIGM start showing strength again. The potential is still there!
Wow, what a days at the exchange. Was in Barcelona (great city) for a long weekend. Got stopped out on Friday on GiGM at $ 9,83. Nice gain for the second time ::) ::) and the only one :-[ :-[ :-[ Really got crushed on some other ones, trusting on the bulls a bid (being in Spain and all >:D >:D), but they didn't.
Well trip was great, GIGM was great and paid for it more than :D :D.
Now I'll have to do some cleaning up in my portfolio and take some losses :'( :'( :'( Bummer, but that's the way it goes if you can't live up to the plan b/c you're away.
Amarens
hi,
gigm still in shorters territory even after a bounce to day seem to be giving back it's gains.
maxi
It's at support. Let's see if it can hold up here.
market is really awful.
Quote from: Michael on May 23, 2006, 07:22:05 AM
Hi Oliver,
GIGM was sold yesterday at 8.00 according to the trading plan. It is really sad to let such a great company go but preservation of wealth have to take priority especially in a bearish market like this.
Mike,
Applause for your outstanding gain in GIGM.
This has been a very difficult market, and I know that it wasn't easy for you to let go of this play, but you're up against "performance numbers," and I think that you were wise to recognize that unfortunate reality.
Great job!
Seems it is the right move by 3SOF to lock in gains on this pick. I am planning to hold a bit longer. We now see that GIGM was quite vulnerable to a market down turn.
Now that I think the market is going even lower, I expect additional pressure on GIGM. Maybe the company can provide some insight on future earnings :(
I too am holding for the long term. The macroenvironment is not negative enough for me to sell here.
Party on Garth! Up nicely on volume (http://z16.org/forum/images/smiles/PDT_git.gif)
YEP... we might start caching some of the fish we were waiting for
on this one.
jorgegr
time to buy again ???
bought a few shares a short time back.
down below 7.00$ now, any opinions except of very bad market situation ???
Just one example of how brutal this market has been. Whoda thunk that GIGM would be down 37% a month later, after those good earnings on May 11?
Yikes. :o :o :o
DO NOT buy anything until this market shows signs of recovery.
there is sure to be a bounce, but stay put until everything clears up.
the stock is good, but it can go lower.
Agree with Snowcat. This is shorting season. Do not celebrate any paper gains either ::)
Asian markets have been crashing along with the US selling now.
coming back from day low 6.68$ :'(
Yea. Good luck to those of us still holdin some GIGM. From looking at the chart, it seems the bottom should be above 6.00 even with another bad month in the market. GIGM may not give us any news for 6 or 8 more weeks >:(
I would guess the US stock market will bounce up at some point. Hopefully it will give us a W formation or something we can recognize and feel good about this summer.
GIGM is currently showing a bearish MACD cross on the weekly chart & bIG ugly candlesticks..... I think GIGM will slide down @ $5.
American Indices is swimming in RED sea
After today, 5 looks easy (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=9734;image)
Why did anyone buy this stock ;D and will they ever make any money at all (http://mdteague.com/Flushed) just kidding
Quote from: Melf Elf on June 13, 2006, 10:54:52 AM
Just one example of how brutal this market has been. Whoda thunk that GIGM would be down 37% a month later, after those good earnings on May 11?
Yikes. :o :o :o
The final tally from May 11 earnings to yesterday's low was
a loss of 42.67%.
Today's 200 point rally in the Dow, from the standpoint of that kind of whacking and oversold condition, certainly is understandable.
GIGM has got a chance of bottom here basis this pattern on the 10-minute chart. If GIGM can take out 7.08-7.12, the late May Bearish Rising Wedge lows of 7.85-7.91 would be IN PLAY.
Interesting article Auss. The piece about OER and its influence on CPI was something I was not aware of.
I was looking at GIGM this evening as a short for tomorrow. It retraced about 50% of the drop from $8.50 to $6.20, and looks like a bear flag on the chart. The rounding at the top of the flag is indicative of a Roll Over Beethoven formation. Short term target either a retest of $6.20 or the $5.60 Jan 06 high. Stop out with a cover above the trendline on my chart which is also approx the 9 ema.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on June 20, 2006, 02:21:35 AM
I was looking at GIGM this evening as a short for tomorrow. It retraced about 50% of the drop from $8.50 to $6.20, and looks like a bear flag on the chart. The rounding at the top of the flag is indicative of a Roll Over Beethoven formation. Short term target either a retest of $6.20 or the $5.60 Jan 06 high. Stop out with a cover above the trendline on my chart which is also approx the 9 ema.
Agree, it would need to breach the 9ema today to negate that bear flag a bit, else it may try an retest the lows.
Quote from: AussieTrader on June 19, 2006, 11:18:00 PM
Whoda thunk indeed Melf, certainly not me.
Aussie,
Yeah, that whacking GIGM took off earnings really surprised me. :o
Quote
GIGM has been my best trade for 2006, long term it's still got a great upside potential.
Great. Congratuations!
Quote
The below is a copy paste from another GIGM thread (too many around!!)
We've got a lot of multiple threads going. I'm sure that it's a time-consuming pain in the you-know-what for the 3SOF to do the housekeeping of combining them, with everything esle they've got to do.
:P
GIGM had a good day yesterday in a lousy market. It closed above 7.12-7.13 resistance, so it's got a shot at
7.85-7.87. resistance 7.85 was the low of the gap down to 6.18 (arrow on the chart). 7.87 was the low off the the triple Bearish Rising Wedge targets.
Good luck, Aussie! EDIT: Hey, your XING is up big in pre-market...over $1.50. Great!
nice recovery IMO ;D
Quote from: Melf Elf on June 15, 2006, 03:52:06 PM
[GIGM has got a chance of bottom here basis this pattern on the 10-minute chart. If GIGM can take out 7.08-7.12, the late May Bearish Rising Wedge lows of 7.85-7.91 would be IN PLAY.
Nice 10%+ rally today in GIGM. The 7.85-7.91 Target MADE.
Congratulations for your TA on GIGM.
Perhaps you can take a look at LTON ( see buy back program news at
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060623/linktone_buybacks.html?.v=2
today having good volume and over 10% up)
jorgegr
I sold GIGM into strength on Friday as I think it will pause or possibly be sent back from near term resistance. Indicators still look good, but volume is weakish. For sure I'll buy back if it breaks through that $8 resistance zone.
Quote from: AussieTrader on June 26, 2006, 12:30:27 AM
I sold GIGM into strength on Friday as I think it will pause or possibly be sent back from near term resistance. Indicators still look good, but volume is weakish. For sure I'll buy back if it breaks through that $8 resistance zone.
OK I had to buy back on the break and hold of $8,volume increased nicely, further the move through 50sma was great confirmation of the strength of GIGM right now. It has now erased that 20% drop a few sessions back and some. MACD histo just crossed the centreline today as a sort of final tick on the action. I am liking the GIGM technicals here (fundamentals we know are shaping up nicely)
Well another VERY interesting release today in that a SEC form 3 was filed by GIGM confirming purchase of shares by SANSAR Capital management (identified as a 10% owner of GIGM) of 5.5m shares on June 14th. Now June 13th & 14th coincidentally was the 2 day period where GIGM hit its bottom just above $6!!! I now want to buy more GIGM, this for me is confirmation of my reasons to buy. Here is the link http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1105101/000136760206000001/xslF345X02/primary_doc.xml
Too many GIGM threads, here is my post on another thread. GIGM is looking very very good.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.msg66184#msg66184
nice analysis aussie trader applaud ;)
I will switch my RMBS investment back to GIGM today
update:
GIGM: Short Interest UP 182.4% to 495.3K in Jun 2006
Monday , June 26, 2006 16:18 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) INCREASED 182.4% to 495,277 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2006.
SYMBOL MAY JUNE CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
GIGM 175,400 495,277 +319,877 +182.37% 1
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,430,190, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
updated chart, nice price action today IMO
GIGM consolidating nicely.
Quote from: AussieTrader on June 19, 2006, 11:18:00 PM
Also on a more general note, Louis Navellier http://www.navellier.com/ a long time succesful newsletter / portfolio manager are turning bullish on the market especially for end of this qtr and moving through earnings season http://www.navellier.com/marketmail/ They are basically saying now is a fantastic buying opportunity, and one of the stocks they have / recommend at these levels is GIGM. Who knows? I certainly don't, but am taking calculated positions in stocks which I think will show tremendous growth over the coming months / years, GIGM is one, XING another.
The Fed news about about inflation being contained and alaying fears of mutliple future rate hikes has justified what Navellier stated the previous week. Fundamentally strong stocks are set to benefit for sure. GIGM fits the fundamentally strong bracket for me.
Hey Melf are in back in GIGM, nice strength I wouldn't be surprised to see it challenging $10 highs in a few weeks.
Quote from: AussieTrader on June 30, 2006, 08:41:15 PM
Hey Melf are in back in GIGM,
Aussie,
No, I daytraded the June 23 Ascending Triangle (intraday chart) breakout to 7.85-7.91 resistance, and sold it there.
Quote
nice strength I wouldn't be surprised to see it challenging $10 highs in a few weeks.
Good job on GIGM, Aussie. Applause.
I'd like to see GIGM go up to 9.29-9.35, the June 5 high and the May 19 gap, then come down and put in a Right Shoulder of an Inverse H&S (pattern in green), then take off to the upside.
That would put something like 12.40 IN PLAY (depending on the point of the breakout).
Well!
The lamp's lit in my head & this puppy is shaping up to complete an inverse head 'n shoulder's that measures a move to about $13! ( that's more than 50% higher from here )
Go GIGM!
good trading to all.....
willey
>:D wow nice price action
I assume the drop in the early morning ha a lot to do with the online gaming debate in the US congress. Even if they do vote to ban it (which is so perverse anyway seeing as places like Las Vegas are BUILT on gambling) it wil have little effect on GIGM opportunity as they are focussed on China and Asia. So IMO this was a buying opportunity.
Anyway I added to my core position around $7.40, weekly and daily charts had nice convergence of support (also middle of weekly bollinger bands, so usually safe entry on pullback). Can't post my charts due to PC issue right now unfortunately.
Good Trading
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 01, 2006, 07:32:51 AM
I'd like to see GIGM go up to 9.29-9.35, the June 5 high and the May 19 gap, then come down and put in a Right Shoulder of an Inverse H&S (pattern in green), then take off to the upside.
That would put something like 12.40 IN PLAY (depending on the point of the breakout).
Hey Melf,
how you been doing bud? my work's been killing me the last month or so, new position, new location, more challenges, thank god for the football world cup, kept me alive!
anyways, looks like you were spot on so far...the right side of the inverse H & S formed, and looks like it bottomed out at $7.30 (breakout level from when it fell to the 6's and tried to rise back up). close was excellent and I picked up a position today near the closing price of around $8.39 ave.
the neckine is around the $9.10 - 9.20 range and break of that should, in my view, put this back in motion to 52 week highs.
i'd appreciate ur thoughts at this time. also, the NASDAQ looks good for a comeback to around the 2180 - 2190 level atleast for the short term. (i see it forming the right side of a downward slanting inverted H & S; neckline around the 2175 area)
ciao! ;)
Quote from: vic666 on July 11, 2006, 06:05:58 PM
anyways, looks like you were spot on so far...the right side of the inverse H & S formed,
Vic,
We'd probably get an argument from the TA purists because the dip to 7.30 in the Right Shoulder was well below the low of the Left Shoulder, (even considering that we've got a down-sloping neckline), but otherwise, yesterday sure looked mighty nice.
Quote
and looks like it bottomed out at $7.30 (breakout level from when it fell to the 6's and tried to rise back up).
Good observation. That's justification, technically, for the overshoot on the downside, to 7.30.
Quote
close was excellent and I picked up a position today near the closing price of around $8.39 ave.
Yes, that was a fine performance:
1. It's a Key Reversal. A new low for the move, then a takeout and close above the prior day's high.
2. It's a Bullish Engulfing pattern.
3. It's an Erik Hadik 3-Close Reversal (he trademarked the 2-Close Reversal, but GIGM closed higher than the prior 3 days' closes).
4. It's probably one of Mark Lebovitz's (spelling?) Volume Reversal days. I forget his rules, but volume was higher than the prior day.
Nice action!
Quote
the neckine is around the $9.10 - 9.20 range and break of that should, in my view, put this back in motion to 52 week highs.
The neckline is 9.29-9.13. The slope is -0.008, so the neckline comes in today, July 12, at 9.074. Naturally, we want to see both 9.13 and 9.29 get taken out to the upside.
Quote
i'd appreciate ur thoughts at this time. also, the NASDAQ looks good for a comeback to around the 2180 - 2190 level atleast for the short term. (i see it forming the right side of a downward slanting inverted H & S; neckline around the 2175 area)
ciao! ;)
The NASDAQ
better come back! ;D
See eliteG's post on the World Indices Board. I'll also post a QQQQ update on that board.
Two more charts coming up next on GIGM: the MACD, and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.
MACD went back toward its signal line and back toward zero, then bounced higher yesterday. That looks fine.
We can see from the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart ("At a glance...the table of balance") that after the nasty breakdown from the Bearish Rising Wedge/H&S Top (the was no Right Shoulder...see first chart above), GIGM sank well below the Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical lines.
"The table of balance" showed that the Bears were in control.
Often on the first rally attempt, stocks fail at the Kumo (Cloud), either at the bottom of it, the top of it, or somewhere in between, and often it depends on where traditional trendlines, moving averages, etc. are.
In the case of GIGM, we can "see at a glance" that it rallied to the top of the Kumo (Cloud), which is why I said on July 1 that I'd like to see a pullback to form a Right Shoulder. Technically, the rally from 6.30 to 9.13 was "too much...too soon" (45% rally), and it looked like it needed a pullback, to strengthen the chart.
Currently, the Kumo (Cloud) still is resistance, but the 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line) and the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line) are properly positioned.
The 22-day Kijun-sen is at 7.655. It's "last support" since the Kumo (Cloud) and the 8-day Tenkan-sen are above it.
GIGM closed Monday at 7.68. It opened yesterday at 7.63, tanked to 7.30, then reversed higher. GIGM "rallied where it had to," or it would have gotten into trouble, technically.
An upside takeout of the 9.29-9.13 down-sloping neckline (solid blue line) also would put GIGM above the Kumo (Cloud), and the "table of balance" would favor the GIGM Bulls.
If Alien is reading this....
The Bearish Rising Wedge/H&S Top was formed over only two weeks. Those guys up there are playing for the Bears (resistance).
This possible Bullish Inverse H&S has been forming over about 6½ weeks. Those guys are playing for the Bulls.
Bulls are favored 3:1, in terms of "players on the field." They better not wimp. ;D >:D
bullish: 8)
InsiderCow.com: Various Insiders of GIGM purchased 38,000 shares
Wednesday, July 12, 2006 03:43 ET
Jul 12, 2006 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Reported by InsiderCow.com at 2:54 PM EST, July 11, 2006: Various Insiders of GigaMedia Limited (GIGM) purchased 38,000 shares of GIGM from the open market. GIGM rose 10.29% since the InsiderCow.com report.
Trade amount: 38,000 shares
Trade type: Open Market Buy
Trade price range: $7.68 - $8.00
Transaction details at http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=GIGM Get real-time alerts on any insider trading information from www.insidercow.com, one step before everybody else.
Melf Elf,
Thanks for the recap. ;) Have been on vacation in Canada and have not had an opportunity to do any trading. Looking forward to getting back in the game. GIGM is definitely a favorite of mine.
Alien
still holding aussie ?
brutal week IMO
Any reason for the sell-off? Where is the next support? Any recommendations? I am interested in starting a position. Thanks in advance.
Quote from: bmarc4211 on July 18, 2006, 01:56:44 PM
Any reason for the sell-off?
bmarc,
I didn't see any news.
I suspect that it was technical selling. MACD crossed below its signal line on Friday, July 14, then crossed back below zero on Monday, July 17 (I'll post that chart next).
:(
Quote
Where is the next support?
7.30 was important support. That was the low of the big upside reversal day on July 11, when GIGM looked ready to go up and knock out 9.29-9.13 resistance (horizontal green line), and go higher.
GIGM took out the
7.30 low yesterday, as you know, went down to 6.89, then closed right at
7.30, so that could have been a Bear Trap fakeout to the downside.
Players using "a close below
7.30" as their stop loss still are long the stock, but they had a nail-biting session yesterday. A close below
7.30 would have entirely negated the bullishness of the July 11 candle (the big white one).
Meanwhile, GIGM has dug itself a hole, technically. In addition to the MACD turning sour, we got a bearish cross in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart yesterday (I'll show you that chart after the MACD)
Quote
Any recommendations? I am interested in starting a position. Thanks in advance.
If you take a long position, I wouldn't tolerate much nonsense, especially in this lousy market environment. The QQQQ downside target of 35.56 MADE yesterday (the low was 35.54), and it had a strong upside reversal into the close. The NASDAQ also put in a Bullish Doji Star Hammer yesterday, so we "should" rally some here, and GIGM should participate.
Technically, though, GIGM needs to regain 7.95, which I'll explain in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo post. Good luck with your decision.
After that nice upside reversal candle on July 11, with MACD kicking higher, everything looked "good to go" for a breakout above 9.29-9.13 trendline resistance.
The subsequent price action and "double negative" in the MACD looks like a failure at this point, which is why GIGM needs to get going to the upside here.
The July 11 upside reversal ended the next session at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), and GIGM has been down since then.
Yesterday, the 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line) made a Bearish Cross below the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line).
They are at 7.72 and 7.95, respectively. The bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 7.92, which is why I said in the first post that GIGM needs to regain 7.95.
GIGM has gone from "poised for an upside breakout" on the nice July 11 upside reversal candle, to a 7.30 close, well below 7.72-7.95 resistance, "poised for a downside continuation."
Nice analysis Melf as usual. I am p ositioned in GIGM for a long term hold and I have shown various charts etc. Recent geo political (well middle east fighting) have trashed many a stock in the past days including GIGM (not totally trashed). Todays strength on the back of Bernacke statements was a nice rally for the markets, and maybe more to come.
Now GIGM is under accumulation right ntow by insiders and mainly Sansar Capital Partners. In recent weeks they have acquired (on various dips) 5.8M shares (another 280K on Monday) that's about 11% of the outstanding shares. SEC file if interested http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1105101/000136760206000004/xslF345X02/primary_doc.xml
That institutional accumulation tells me GIGM is a stock I want to accumulate myself.
Weekly chart shows nicely that GIGM is testing 2006 support (blue line)
Quote from: AussieTrader on July 19, 2006, 11:13:31 PM
Weekly chart shows nicely that GIGM is testing 2006 support (blue line)
Aussie,
Good eye on that weekly support line. Applause. I've been using log scale because of the big percentange gain, so I missed it.
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 19, 2006, 06:23:53 AM
They are at 7.72 and 7.95, respectively. The bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 7.92, which is why I said in the first post that GIGM needs to regain 7.95.
GIGM did what it needed to do yesterday, which was to attack that 7.72-7.95 resistance. The high on the day was
7.94. Yesterday was a Bullish Engulfing candlestick, but the volume was much lighter than the prior day's selloff.
The 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red) now is at 7.965. The 8-day (solid green) and 22-day still are inverted, and the MACD still is out of position below its signal line and below zero, so GIGM needs to work out those technical problems by continuing to rally.
The top of the Kumo (Cloud) currently is at 8.48.
fyi:
Hedge Fund Ups Stake in GigaMedia
Thursday July 20, 9:52 am ET
By InsiderScore.com Research Staff
Shares of GigaMedia (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) got a lift yesterday after the Taiwanese online entertainment provider's second-largest shareholder increased its stake in the company.
Sansar Capital Management, a New York-based fund that concentrates on Asian equities, purchased 265,000 shares of GigaMedia at an average price of $7.65 on July 17th and July 18th, upping its stake in the company to approximately 5.762 million shares, or about an 11.45% stake. The New York-based hedge fund had previously disclosed purchases of 25,100 shares at $7.99 on July 11th, and 40,000 shares at $7.84 made between July 7th and July 10th. The firm first disclosed a 3.7 million-share, or 7.4%, stake in August 2005, and it held a 4.71 million-share, or 9.31%, stake at the end of the first quarter.
GigaMedia develops and licenses software and application services, and owns an online games and social-networking portal. The company also provides broadband service to consumers and businesses in Taiwan.
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 20, 2006, 03:36:17 AM
[The 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red) now is at 7.965.
GIGM got clotheslined at the 22-day Tenksan, now at
7.97, for the second day in a row. The high on the day was
7.98.
Quote
The 8-day (solid green) and 22-day still are inverted, and the MACD still is out of position below its signal line and below zero, so GIGM needs to work out those technical problems by continuing to rally.
That's still the case.
Still holding Oliver ;) GIGM reacting off medium term ascending support (blue line), but getting capped around the 50sma / descending resistance (red line). That resistance should give way once volume comes in, probably on a pre earns run over the coming couple of weeks.
Been a nice ride for GIGM, when the market gets going again should strenghten and move up again.
Nice day for GIGM closing above 50sma and above immediate resistance, $9 zone will be tougher and will require volume confirmation for sure. MACD Histo cross on the zero line. All in all strong reaction off the 2006 support line. In fact that ascending support line has provided multiple launches for GIGM:
Dec: $2.80 to $5.63
Mar: $4.11 to $12.78
Jun: $6.18 to $9.13
Jul: $6.89 to Well who knows......
GIGM making nice movement leading up to earnings (Tues 8th pre market), approaching significant resistance. For accumulators the dips to the 2006 support line (blue) and the mid bollinger band (dotted line) area have provided nice pick up points with strong ascending support.
Impossible to call how earnings will be seen, my position as stated many times before is for upside break to be most likley. This weekly chart shows how GIGM is positioning.
Everything is continuing to look good with GIGM, and I anticipate holding through earnings on this one, in expectation that they should continue to provide strong numbers. From what I see today's action gave us a break of the big symmetric triangle (mine is drawn slightly different to yours) plus confirmation breakout of the inverse H&S pattern forming over the last few months (sorry, can't post a chart right now tho!)
$9s may be tough to get through, but I wouldn't be surprised to see GIGM break into the $9 range this week, possibly pushing towards $10 before earnings. Will just have to wait and see!
got into this one at 8.4. should see a earnings runup (next tuesday).
volume not bad for 1st one hour. If the volume is any where around 2mlns then we might see some action. Any case I will unload half alteast before the earnings. Always got burnt holding on to the earnings. :-\ .
broke out above $8.95 resistance, not the time to sell, it iooks like the time to buy IMHO
I was hoping a better price with 2mil volume, anycase 5.6% is not bad at all.
Aussie should be happy with his pick for the contest ;)
GIGM lining up nicely prior to earnings,taking out my previously shown resistance area on volume. Here is a daily chart confirming H&S bottom breakout technically, however caveat emptor earnings can render all analysis null and void.
Good Trading
Everything now set up for GIGM earnings report. Technicals still in good shape, now its in the lap of the stock Gods. I see there is a lot of talk (in the yahoo boards) regarding the time and date chosen by GIGM for the release 08/08 at 08:00am (8 being considered a very lucky number in China). Interesting choice for sure, well they are a gambling based company ;)
hi,
i think gigm is one of the best stocks in the market.
you may win this competion ,
glta
maxi
Yup, GIGM looks really tough.
Technicals are setting up nicely, tomorrow is earnings conference call... so watch out ;)
That's a strong quarter for GIGM aussie (applause) ;)
Am I missing something here? Blowout quarter, good guidance, strong open, high volume breakout and now it's down for the day and going lower? It couldn't just be the markets. There are plenty of stocks moving up today. What gives? ???
I'm always disappointed by how this stock trades. I almost shorted at 10.4, but i couldn't bring myself to do it with such a good report.
This stock moves on the whims of short termers and those who don't understand the company. It will likely go parabolic with every major market turn.
It was a strange old day for GIGM that's for sure. Some people bought in pre market at $11.30 and above :o (likewise some people off loaded those shares for a handy profit >:D
GIGM couldn't maintain the pre market euphoria and from 08.00am onwards was on a downwards move.
You can't fault the company on its report and execution (it continues to deliver on it's promises). And for sure the future is looking good. I am not overly concerened on 1 day moves (unless they truly violate the technicals). In fact todays action reminds me of March 23rd when GIGM released guidance on their Q1 (40% up on Q4). This caused a huge 1 day volume surge with gap open, that euphoria then couldn't hold, the gap filled support held and it became the catalyst for GIGM to move from $5.50 to $10.78. My expectation is that todays results / news and guidance will also prove a catalyst for moves above the $10.78 zone into the mid teens.
Daily and weekly charts show GIGM despite todays topsy turvy moves remains above significant support.
Interesting to see what happens next.
They are selling to the news...
Quote from: elliemae on August 04, 2006, 11:12:30 AM
broke out above $8.95 resistance, not the time to sell, it iooks like the time to buy IMHO
Atleast one thing I have learned, there are lots of people who get in for earnings rally and its always prudent to take some off the table on or before the earnings day.(specially if the market is not that upbeat) If the stock goes up there is nothing wrong you still have remaining shares to ride. Actually it also gives confirmation that your were right on your pick(what ever the theory may be) and you can in fact add on to your portforlio.
Again its not that easy to sell ANY stock .. we are so in love with the stocks we buy that we start developing this feelings of hope/belief ..etc . If it tanks we dont want to sell it on loss and if it starts moving up we wont sell it afraid to miss the peak ... ;)
There are some great guys here at 3sof whose discipline I applaude.
Quote from: AussieTrader on August 08, 2006, 10:22:54 PM
I am not overly concerened on 1 day moves (unless they truly violate the technicals). In fact todays action reminds me of March 23rd when GIGM released guidance on their Q1 (40% up on Q4). This caused a huge 1 day volume surge with gap open, that euphoria then couldn't hold, the gap filled support held and it became the catalyst for GIGM to move from $5.50 to $10.78. My expectation is that todays results / news and guidance will also prove a catalyst for moves above the $10.78 zone into the mid teens.
Well, technicals are getting a bashing unfortunately, my h&R reversal breakout has failed at the neckline for the moment and worse still GIGM is moving with the market and not on the merits of it's results / news. So, what's a guy to do? There are a few levels of support $8.50 to $8.20 the 50sma $8.12, then the ascending 2006 support line around $7.70 or so and below that the 200 day in the $6 zone.
If it breaks $8.50 I will sell, if it rises anywhere above $9.00 I'll probably sell into that strength as unless it truly reverses on volume I think that it will fail again at that resistance point.
I am still bullish on GIGM, but I'm no massochist and will not hold on just because I am bullish, buisness risk drawdown is one thing, holding for the sake of it is another. I'll take my profit and wait for re-entry / accumulation in the support areas mentioned above.
Sold on the break of $8.50 today as per my plan. I am not done with GIGM though as I think it still can be a big winner on the long term.
The 50sma has halted the slide for now and ascending 2006 support at $7.60 ish is the next test.
I am not in a hurry to get back in, this will need a catalyst to turn it round, just watching for support and signs of reversal.
Good Trading
script from Q2 call:
http://www.gigamedia.com.tw/downloads/conference/2Q06%20Script-final.pdf
any TA comments ?
8)
Hey Oliver, how are things?
Market rallying some and pulling GIGM with it. From my perspective:
Daily chart watch for failure at the previously highlighted reverse H&S neckline which will push GIGM back to the 50sma / ascending 2006 support zone. Nice support shown at that area consistantly over the past few months as discussed before. Weekly chart shows nice accumulation point again at mid bollinger band area (which again coincides with 50sma zone). All in all approaching resistance from $8.90 to $9.50, which will take something more than current volume to push out the way.
I took a small position to keep on watch after the strength of the 50sma zone held. And will add if it deals with that resistance.
Good Trading
Hi guys,
I'll put a slightly different spin on it, though I also support aussie's analysis. Yesterday's topping out at the H&S neckline suggests that we are approaching significant resistance. I also see a large symmetric triangle breakout which occured during the run-up to earnings, and the subsequent sell-off tested this pattern as well as horizontal support around 8.00. This triangle measures about 6.5 points, which would give a target of around $14.50. Obviously, this would be a long term pattern target, and the immediate challenge is getting through the 8.90-9.30 resistance zone. If the market keeps rallying, we may get a shot at it this time ;)
GIGM having a low volume lookey look at the neckline ;)
GIGM needs that Mahjong deal and hopefully it will be a real goer, nudge, nudge...
fyi:
Buyers Wading In
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/28/2006 10:37 AM EDT
We have a productive start to the week. Buyers seem to be inching in very slowly after a flat start. Breadth has been moving up nicely while oil and gold are leading to the downside.
For quite a while the market was very positively correlated with the movement of oil. If oil was strong, the market was up, and vice versa. I'm starting to wonder if that correlation is ending as concerns about consumers start to grow. Obviously gas prices have some impact on consumers, and if that pressure starts to diminish, it has some positive aspects. Keep your eyes open for a shift in sentiment here. If oil continues to fall and the market reaction is positive, that is an indication that there is a basic change in character taking place.
I've been doing some nibbling this morning and have added a few buys including Aether Holdings (AETH:Nasdaq), Gigamedia (GIGM:Nasdaq), Syneron Medical (ELOS:Nasdaq) and The9 Ltd. (NCTY:Nasdaq). I also have lightened my hedge substantially but will look to remount. I think the bulls have the edge for now, and look for them to hold us steady. However, the bears haven't gone away, and they will be anxious to press once again if we get a decent upside move on low volume.
fyi:
just started a small position @ 9 $ 8)
Technically GIGM really is doing all the right things. Higher highs, higher lows. Banging its head on rock hard resistance. Just lacking the power tool of VOLUME to break it convincingly. Today will be the 5th attempt at that $9 resistance zone since the post earns breakout failure and sell off.
Weekly chart is nice:
9.20$ now but no volume ...
They announced stellar results and the stock tanked. ???
Lately Institution holdings increased substantially.If they release any PR we might see a spike and easily push this to low teens. ;)
Getting back to GIGM.
Trading Idea:
Last month GIGM showed up on our filters for breaking out the correctional pattern that was in place, after that GIGM had some extreme volatility trading near its highs and retesting supports right after that.
Volume is not strong at the moment, but this is more like a positional trade rather than a momentum / breakout trade. GIGM technical pattern is bullish, with consecutive higher lows and higher highs; right now GIGM is already trading above $9.00 which is an important reactive level and resistance, we expect this stock to keep its path to higher ground and ultimately to break its highs.
Trading Plan:
Buy GIGM at or near the open and set a stop @ $8.39 for this position.
Regards,
Frederick,
This is a tough one for me. It looked good until earnings.
My concern is that after the breakout above the blue down trendline off the May high, which resulted in a rally to the gap opening at earnings, we've got:
1. A 3-day flag pole, beginning with a very heavy volume reversal at earnings (August 8 candle).
2. A bounce off the 50DMA, and a successful re-test of the breakout above the blue down trendline, as you mentioned, but it's a low volume Bear Flag rally, and there are four hits to the top of the Bear Flag, including yesterday.
3. This little Bear Flag looks like a "fractal" (a repeating pattern) of the larger pattern (in red) off the June low, at 6.18 (an A-B-C corrective rally).
If GIGM can take out the top of the current Bear Flag, that would look better, but the heavy volume reversal at earnings still bothers me.
Just a few thoughts. Good luck everybody.
Hey Melf (and all others ;)
For me that bear flag is less important as a reversal indicator than $9.50. But that said your top of the bear flag pretty much coincides with $9.50 anyway, so whilst we approach from diffrent perspectives our conclusions concur. Approaching a critical pivot point for GIGM by the looks, failure at that area could indeed set off a retest of the 50sma (which coincides with mid term ascending support line)
Quote from: Melf Elf on August 31, 2006, 06:03:36 AM
Frederick,
This is a tough one for me. It looked good until earnings.
My concern is that after the breakout above the blue down trendline off the May high, which resulted in a rally to the gap opening at earnings, we've got:
1. A 3-day flag pole, beginning with a very heavy volume reversal at earnings (August 8 candle).
2. A bounce off the 50DMA, and a successful re-test of the breakout above the blue down trendline, as you mentioned, but it's a low volume Bear Flag rally, and there are four hits to the top of the Bear Flag, including yesterday.
3. This little Bear Flag looks like a "fractal" (a repeating pattern) of the larger pattern (in red) off the June low, at 6.18 (an A-B-C corrective rally).
If GIGM can take out the top of the current Bear Flag, that would look better, but the heavy volume reversal at earnings still bothers me.
Just a few thoughts. Good luck everybody.
Hi Melf !
Thanks for your input here (applaud) !
About your TA on GIGM, it's another way of looking into it, but slight different from my approach. I'm aware of the earnings reversal move, and some possible bear configurations here, it bothers me but even so I see some other possible developments here.
I try to look into GIGM on a very simple way:
- I like the stock and I like the sector ;)
- Our Fundamental Department (Michael) likes the Stock (LOL LOL)
- I see a breakout + Retest on the mid term chart with a short term swing to the upside and momentum building in.
- We've missed a re-entry on GIGM at 6.50/7.00, we missed another re-entry at the breakout (8.50), and now we had another interesting risk/potential ratio for a setup and we are taking the risk, even with low volume, GIGM is managing to perform its patterns.
- If we manage to get some volume at these levels, the chart will look much more interesting ;) lets wait
Quote from: AussieTrader on August 31, 2006, 09:00:18 PM
Hey Melf (and all others ;)
For me that bear flag is less important as a reversal indicator than $9.50. But that said your top of the bear flag pretty much coincides with $9.50 anyway, so whilst we approach from diffrent perspectives our conclusions concur. Approaching a critical pivot point for GIGM by the looks, failure at that area could indeed set off a retest of the 50sma (which coincides with mid term ascending support line)
Hi Aussie,
Thanks for your inputs too (applaud).
I'm not expecting $9.50 to create a big barrier, but yes... that's a reactive zone and we should observe it.
GIGM is doing consecutive higher lows and higher highs; our stop price is taking that into consideration, now we are just waiting for another higher high ;)
Update:A nice session for GIGM with a slight volume increase and a bullish candle setting new short term highs for this rebound. $9.50 should provide some resistance, $9.00 should provide some support, and momentum is getting better, so let's wait.
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $8.39Regards !
Quote from: Ramsburg on August 31, 2006, 10:37:44 PM
About your TA on GIGM, it's another way of looking into it, but slight different from my approach
Frederick and Aussie,
Thanks for the interesting discussion. I was looking at GIGM the same way (your blue lines, Frederick) until the earnings, but GIGM still could continue to ratchet its way higher on relatively low volume, as it is doing currently. I'm probably allowing that heavy volume reversal to bother me too much, but those tend to make me a bit wary when they occur at any kind of top, or at a breakdown, like on May 22, after earnings.
Heavy volume after a lot of selling, like on June 13, can be an indication of panic and capitulation, which in this case, it was (chart below is a Candlevolume chart).
At any rate, I was glad to see GIGM close higher yesterday, and hope that it continues to rally for you guys. Good luck!
Sold at 9.62, will buy back if the gap fills :)
Update: back in at 9.45, not a huge saving, but every bit counts in this market...
Frederick and Aussie,
Nice day for GIGM. The big reversal candle kept me out of it, dang it. Good job, guys. Applaud you both.
Quote from: tokyopua on September 01, 2006, 09:40:27 AM
Sold at 9.62, will buy back if the gap fills :)
Update: back in at 9.45, not a huge saving, but every bit counts in this market...
tokyopua,
Hey, that was some fancy dancing! :D Nice going! :)
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 01, 2006, 03:36:09 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on September 01, 2006, 09:40:27 AM
Sold at 9.62, will buy back if the gap fills :)
Update: back in at 9.45, not a huge saving, but every bit counts in this market...
tokyopua,
Hey, that was some fancy dancing! :D Nice going! :)
Heh, thanks Melf, its fun when it works. I figured the gap had to fill because there was no news, and worst case if it filled then just kept going down after I bought back then at least I saved some of the loss. That cash delta made in about 20 minutes was enough for me to buy my groceries for two weeks (at Whole Foods no less, haha :D).
Then, pretty cool to see it go back up and then some to 9.80. Go GIGM, hopefully it isnt done going up ;D
Update:
GIGM is increasing speed, volume is slowly getting higher and the overall pattern is looking way better now. GIGM may need to consolidate these levels, but we expect a continuation to high ground to happen in the short run.
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $8.39
Regards !
I'm long this Mgmt team. Holding since Dec 2005 when first bought by 3SoF, and was not shaken out. All other stocks I will trade short term.
Update:
GIGM has down yesterday; probably it needs to consolidate a little bit the recent gains before having the strength to breakout into double digits.
Our sentiment remains bullish about GIGM chart, and we'll keep the same plan for now.
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $8.39
Regards !
on fire! :o
I bought GIGM @ 9.67 on Monday, today it took off, possible target anyone?? Tia
(http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/8470/gigmsv0.jpg)
Take a look at this current board
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.msg71402#msg71402
Quote from: jorgegr on September 07, 2006, 12:03:51 PM
Take a look at this current board
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.msg71402#msg71402
3Stocks Premium Restricted Access!I'm not a member anymore ...
Quote from: rickjust on September 07, 2006, 10:38:29 AM
on fire! :o
No kidding! Nice volume too, and without any news. Only about .15 away from the recent high of 10.78 as I type...
We need a even stronger movement just to stop worrying about a double-top formation...and we need them bethen today and tomorrow, don't you guys agree? Or it goes higher or it's time to collect the profits ;)
Sold my GIGM @ 10.82, good for a 12% profit! ;D
Probably a bit to soon as it's edging higher while I typ, but always lock in profits and never be to greedy! ;)
Hey Se7en,
Think big picture... major AT breakout to new all-time highs I put the technical target at 15.38 which is a 42% gain from brekaout point. Volume is in, big move today, just broke $11 as I type. This looks good - just a shame for us non-members (anymore) that 3SOF took our long and invloved GIGM thread out of our hands!!!
Edit: Just saw that you sold! Shame - I just bought back in, I have a feeling this is the real deal this time....
GIGM the stock of the day...New 52 wk high. Congrats everyone :o
Would sure like to read Aussie's opinion at this moment. >:D
jorgegr
Sorry to hear you guys are out but can understand your reaction :-[
jorgegr
Quote from: ScottishTrader on September 07, 2006, 01:21:25 PM
Hey Se7en,
Think big picture... major AT breakout to new all-time highs I put the technical target at 15.38 which is a 42% gain from brekaout point. Volume is in, big move today, just broke $11 as I type. This looks good - just a shame for us non-members (anymore) that 3SOF took our long and invloved GIGM thread out of our hands!!!
Edit: Just saw that you sold! Shame - I just bought back in, I have a feeling this is the real deal this time....
Hm, maybe i should buy back in! :)
I thought maybe there would be a sell off this afternoon (as it's getting overbought), that's why I sold...
Quote from: Se7en on September 07, 2006, 01:17:58 PM
Sold my GIGM @ 10.82, good for a 12% profit! ;D
Probably a bit to soon as it's edging higher while I typ, but always lock in profits and never be to greedy! ;)
You did the right thing Se7en, I see a double top for GIGM ;)
& the H & S target is almost hit above $11.10,
a correction is possible from here, IMHO ;)
I'm just a beginner but I always find it difficult to determine when it's a 'good' time to sell!
Maybe there will be a sell off but on the other hand this puppy could keep on going the next few days, how can we know what it will be ... ???
Hey profits are profits, and that is what matters!!
The worst thing that I always do when I sell for a profit is to jump straight back in because I think it is going to run away from me. Often those are the times when it will reverse on you and chew up thos hard earned profits. I would hold off for now and look at it in the light of the end of day. If the breakout holds and looks set to continue, buy back in tomorrow or Monday once you have a better feel for it. Terliso could be right (and me wrong) about this one, and you don't want to lose what you just made by being hasty. Even if you end up getting in at a higher price, if subsequent action confirms your opinion about the legitimacy of this move, then you can buy back in with confidence.
Just my thoughts on the matter.... good luck in any case!
ST
I haven't looked at GIGM since I decided to pass on the trade because of the heavy volume reversal, at earnings. There was a golden opportunity to buy it at the open this morning, but with so many stocks...so little time...I wasn't watching this one.
Quote from: rickjust on September 07, 2006, 10:38:29 AM
on fire! :o
Yep!
Quote from: tokyopua on September 07, 2006, 12:15:59 PM
No kidding! Nice volume too, and without any news. Only about .15 away from the all time high of 10.78 as I type...
This is what's known as "a technically driven rally." There might be some news that wer'e missing, but GIGM didn't need any news to rally today. Here's why:
1. Look at the channel that formed off the August 10 low, at 8.01. There were 3 hits to the top of the channel, labeled on the chart below. The third hit validates the trendline and "suggests" that if it gets taken out to the upside, it should have some significance.
This is a good example of how Rising Channels aren't always bearish, although often, they are.
2. There was a gap up breakout on August 31, where I have the arrow. As near as I can tell, the breakout was above 9.42, so that breakout put a target of 10.82 IN PLAY, (EDIT: sorry, it's 10.83 IN PLAY) as long as GIGM remained above the breakout.
3. GIGM not only remained above the breakout, look at the beautiful technical work, after the breakout. The stock came back and tagged the top of the channel right after the breakout, then went into a Symmetrical Triangle formation.
There were three hits to the top of the Channel/Symmetrical Triangle, at 9.43...9.46...9.49. That was THREE confirmations of the technical breakout above the channel, and in the process, GIGM formed a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, giving the chart further strength.
4. At yesterday's close, the chart was "champing at the bit" for the upside breakout. The technical work was done, and the chart looked very strong.
The breakout came right at the open, GIGM raced higher on volume, and the 10.83 target MADE.
My philosophy is "Take profits when targets get MADE," but that doesn't mean that the stock won't go higher. It already has gone a little higher, over 11.00. This is a new multi-year high in the stock, so there's NO RESISTANCE overhead, to stop it from going higher. That's a big positive for more rally.
There's always risk in stocks, as we know, and we don't want to turn a winner like this into a loser. To defend against that, I'd suggest a stop near where all of that nice technical work was done at the channel and the Symmetrical Triangle. Something like 9.50, for now. That's a lot of give back from here, but it gives you room to see what the stock is going to do next, and allows you to have a big winner. You always can adjust the stop higher as the chart plays out.
Just a suggestion, of course.
Congratulations to all of you holding long. That's wonderful!
Quote from: ScottishTrader on September 07, 2006, 02:03:53 PM
Hey profits are profits, and that is what matters!!
Exactly, the worst thing that I always do when I sell for a profit is that I usually sell too late so that most of my profits are gone, so don't get me wrong, I'm quite happy now, even if it goes higher from here! :)
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 07, 2006, 02:06:43 PM
This is a new multi-year high in the stock, so there's NO RESISTANCE overhead, to stop it from going higher. That's a big positive for more rally.
Sorry, I should clarify that: There's NO RESISTANCE
going back to the Summer, 2000, when GIGM last was at this price level.
"The farther out in time that resistance is, the less resistance it becomes." In this case, it was six years ago, so anyone who rode GIGM down from this price level to a low of $0.20 and is
still holding it they are long-term investors, for sure, and they aren't as likely to sell as they would be if that kind of horrilbe paper loss had been recent.
By the way, GIGM was over $90 in March, 2000. Imagining riding it down to a low of $0.20! :o I would show you that on the chart, but then the last six years of trading at this level looks like a tiny little blip on the chart, and it's barely discernible.
"Honor Thy Stops!" ;D
The heavy reversal volume at earnings on August 8 was 4.6 million. Volume on today's breakout is right a 4 million with about 1½ hrs. of trading remaining before the close. That's very nice.
Good luck everyone! ;)
Quote from: Se7en on September 07, 2006, 01:54:30 PM
I'm just a beginner but I always find it difficult to determine when it's a 'good' time to sell!
Maybe there will be a sell off but on the other hand this puppy could keep on going the next few days, how can we know what it will be ... ???
profits are profits. as a begginer learning to take profits is the most important . and don't worry if it runs away from you. we all can say woulda coulda but it is better to move on look at the next opportunity , there is always another chance in the market
maxi
Thanks Melf Elf, I'm in since 3soft recomended it.
Great day longs !
News are coming.
Regards
Quote from: Goldeneyes on September 07, 2006, 02:45:12 PM
Thanks Melf Elf, I'm in since 3soft recomended it.
Great day longs !
News are coming.
Regards
Probably... news must be coming ;)
Anyway, GIGM is saving the 3SOF Portfolio today ;)
I got out at $ 11,18. Got in a little earlier than 3SOF did. Great profit ::) ::) ::) ::)Love this stock. Definitly saving my portfolio at the moment :-X.
Will keep an eye on GIGM. See if there's a nice entering point again. Didn't want to let the profits run awau like I've done on some stocks. GIGM moves up and down a lot. Figure I can take another ride ;).
Amarens
GIGM just passed the volume spike made on May 8th, and is running again into this close. WOW! >:D
Nice close, let's see what tomorrow brings!
(http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/9895/gigmqr0.jpg)
Quote from: AussieTrader on August 29, 2006, 09:41:24 AM
Technically GIGM really is doing all the right things. Higher highs, higher lows. Banging its head on rock hard resistance. Just lacking the power tool of VOLUME to break it convincingly.
I like todays 'power tool' You know you can have all the technical analysis in the world, bottom line though really comes down to VOLUME and BUYERS. When both coincide this is what happens. This is no news technical breakout, but I would suspect there is news lurking somewhere round the corner to do with Mahjong for money roll out (Q3 was the start date) or something along those lines, no doubt we will see in the coming days perhaps.
Quote from: jorgegr on September 07, 2006, 01:32:42 PM
Would sure like to read Aussie's opinion at this moment. >:D
jorgegr
Not a bad day jorgegr ;)
It was such a convincing day of heavy volume sustained throughout, no gap in the chart, closing near the high of the day, no resistance (except long ago so not really an issue) and now fully reversed the selloffs following the Q1 and Q2 earnings release. GIGM will have hit the momo radars today so I expect some follow through on Friday, everyone who bought GIGM in 2006 is 'in the money'
Somethimes there are stocks you always make money buying and somethimes there are stocks you always seem to lose money buying. GIGM is my 'always make' stock.
Haven't had time to assess targets or stops yet, On Sept 5th I moved my stop to $8.81, me thinks it needs revising now :o
Finally congrats to Smartwrasse, he just held his shares throughout these past fews months and probably is doing better than those of us who perhaps dipped in and out some.
Hey my GIGM friends.
Sorry for you the board has moved.
Today was a rock solid technical breakout, eclipsing the Q1 and Q2 earnings peaks (then sell offs!)
Volume was heavy all day, no gap in chart and above all resistance, all in all a 1st class breakout.
Double top could be in play, but my thought is not. I guess there is probably news lurking regarding Mahjong for money going live (Q3 was rollout time) or some licencing deal that will maybe come out over next few days.
Based on todays action I expect continuation Friday followed by consolidation above $10.
Good TRading
Hi,
Stock of the day... :)
Technical analysis :
1. Chart pattern : "Cup and handle" is formed
2. Volume : High volume on breakout
3. Candlestick : a long white day -> bullish signal.
Close at 11.16
Target : Sky is only THE limit
Stop loss at 9.65
Update:
GIGM breakout to new highs... well, not new highs but long term relative highs, since the last time GIGM was above $11 was during the 2000's correction from $91 (all time high).
Yesterday candle was a triple breakout, with GIGM closing above a descending resistance, last month's high and May's relative high, volume was huge, bigger than the earnings red candle.
This technical setup with no news in place suggests an upside continuation, or at least some consolidation above $10.35 for now. News is probably coming out soon (and probably explosive news), so we can't sell our position yet. As a precaution measure we're just moving our stop higher and let this beautiful chart developing ;)
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $10.00
Regards !
Nice trade rams!
GIGM definatley looking bullish :) (applauds)
-fous
Im looking for a possible entry at 10.30 near support of this symmetrical triangle breakout. Shares are trading down .26 currenty premarket at 10.90
-fous
Bought GIGM back @ 10.28$! :)
(http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/6011/gigmjy5.jpg)
Quote from: Terliso on September 07, 2006, 01:46:25 PM
Quote from: Se7en on September 07, 2006, 01:17:58 PM
Sold my GIGM @ 10.82, good for a 12% profit! ;D
Probably a bit to soon as it's edging higher while I typ, but always lock in profits and never be to greedy! ;)
You did the right thing Se7en, I see a double top for GIGM ;)
& the H & S target is almost hit above $11.10,
a correction is possible from here, IMHO ;)
double top in play... H & S target was made this morning ;)
It succesfully retested the breakout point, that's why i bought, and what about the cup and handle?!
Update:
Quite a big drop last Friday... Although GIGM may have lost some momentum, this could be just a normal retest to the $10.30 breakout level for consolidation. The overall scenario is still very bullish, I'm not quite sure what can happen in the next few days, but the long term chart looks awesome now (even with Friday's ugly candle).
Taking the risk of losing our position in GIGM we'll keep the same plan for now, as we don't want to see another red candle on this chart. Volatility is extremely high and in case we get stopped in this position we may have the chance of picking GIGM again at a lower price, so the plan is:
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $10.00
Regards !
Bought it back last friday @ 10.28 and now sold my GIGM again @ 11.02 for a 7 % profit! ;D
(http://img236.imageshack.us/img236/5483/gigmyp4.jpg)
Here is a 12 page thread running on this stock....
and I can count about a dozen more.... ???
Why not post an update to this if you have something to say in regards to this stock,
without having to go and start a new thread..... ???
Even EliteG had a running thread on this pick, could have posted there.
And here is the thread I spoke to you of started by eliteG back in June 2005,
and it is 4 pages long, ad I do believe this was the first thread started on this stock pick.
Traders here baffle me about wanting to start new threads on stocks that already have up and running ones..... ???
All these GIGM threads should be merged into 1 with this one created by Michael.
Does anyone get the point I am trying to make here.... ???
Ramsburgh, do us all a favor, "Merge Please"!!!!!!!
This is how it looks when so many are created unnecessary clutter.You have to do a search just to find the thread you were posting to.
Yes, for all you traders that missed all the threads on the Stock Picking Board,
it was even a play for the real deal in the 3SOF Portfolio, not once but a second time around !
Thanks Setravis ! (applaud)
I've merged all GIGM topics into this one, lets keep all GIGM related subjects in here guys ;)
Quote from: setravis on September 11, 2006, 09:13:32 PM
Here is a 12 page thread running on this stock....
and I can count about a dozen more.... ???
Why not post an update to this if you have something to say in regards to this stock,
without having to go and start a new thread..... ???
Even EliteG had a running thread on this pick, could have posted there.
I searched for a GIGM topic but I found
nothing and the one in previous 3SOF picks was gone! I suggest to make the search tool a little better ...
Update:
GIGM is now consolidating the recent price surge, some kind of symmetrical triangulation pattern may be going on. Support is placed @ $10.25, we'll keep the same plan for now.
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $10.00
Regards !
Hi Se7en,
The search function is ok, I just searched GIGM, and I found a few posts about it, including this one.
The GIGM topic you were searching is now inside the 3SOF Board, since GIGM was added to our portfolio 2 weeks ago (and we moved the topic to that board).
regards.
Rams:
Could be wrong but I don't feel the search function is friendly.
If you start at 3SOF HOME page, there is no search option.
From the message board, scrolling to the bottom, the Google searcher allows
to set the 3SOF option for GIGM which drives you to:
a) GIGM - which sends you to the 14 days free trial offer and suggests the board you are
looking for appears to be part of 3SOF Premium Zone.
b) Going back to the second option "Joining the party GIGM" sends you to the ORCL thread
c) Going back to the third option "Joining the party GIGM" finally leads to the 2nd page of a
GIGM thread and selecting page 19 you find:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.270
Non of them places you at the current actual thread.
If you are not a member any longer how can you find the right thread??
Try to seardch GIGM by going to the "get quote function/chart" and scrolling to the bottom
of that page to check the results.
Maybe I'm not so smart, but I agree with Se7en, ...the search function is not as friendly
as one can expect.
Thank you in advance for your assistance.
Jorgegr
Hi Jorgegr,
From the Homepage there is a link to the search on the menu. But in the message board, you have the direct search box, not at the bottom, but at the top, this is the actual search engine for the 3SOF platform (the google search is not very good searching inside 3SOF).
I'm not sure why you dont see the search box, maybe you have your top header minimized, to open it just click the (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/Themes/default/images/upshrink2.gif) button on the left side of the menu at the top of the board.
When I search «GIGM» there, the first topic I get is the one inside our premium zone, and the second one is this post where we are right now (a non premium member sees this one in first place).
I think this problem is related with users using the google search at the bottom instead of the 3SOF search box at the top. Let me know if this helps ?
regards,
Yes, this is why I didn't see the search box:
I'm not sure why you dont see the search box, maybe you have your top header minimized, to open it just click the button on the left side of the menu at the top of the board.
Thx
jorgegr
Basis the hourly chart below, GIGM broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle this morning at about 10.87 (it's difficult to calculate on these on intraday charts). That puts 11.48 IN PLAY, and also about 12.10 IN PLAY.
Math:
High of the pattern, at #1: 11.48
Low of the pattern, at #2: 10.25
11.48 - 10.25 = 1.23 points, added to the breakout at 10.87...
10.87 + 1.23 = Target 12.10 IN PLAY (roughly)
Never any guarantees that targets will get MADE, of course, but when stocks like GIGM have big "bust out" rallies, like it did on the rally to the high of 11.48, the rally tends to be more sustainable if the stock consolidates, builds another bullish pattern like this Symmetrical Triangle from which to launch another rally, then breaks out again, like this morning.
That's called a bullish consolidation/bullish continuation pattern.
Quote
Support is placed @ $10.25
Right, Frederick. That's the low of the Symmetrical Triangle, at #2 on the chart. That's "last support" for this move.
1. First support is the up trendline, connecting #2 and #4. The slope is about one penny per hour, so it's currently at about 10.50, and will keep rising about a penny each hour.
2. Next support is 10.44, at #4.
3. Frederick's 10.25 is "last support," because a print of 10.24 would be a "lower low," below the entire Symmetrical Triangle.
If, for example, GIGM "Double Tops" here, near the 11.48 target IN PLAY, watch those three levels for support. Using any of them for a stop to lock in profits certainly would be reasonable. Depends on individual tolerance for risk/expectation of reward on the trade.
Just a suggestion. Good luck, everyone!
Has anyone noticed the chart, beginning in 2000. Nice looking Cup with a Two month handle in Jan-Feb, Breakout Jan 23, 2006.
Excellent Technical study Melf ;) (applaud)
Update:
For yesterday's session, I didn't enjoy the close (not near the highs of the day), but I did enjoy the volume...
The last 5 sessions are looking much more like a triangular consolidation pattern, excluding spikes we can set $11.15 as the top resistance level. Like Melf said, the $10.25 level is the last support, being $10.44 right now the main downside reference for short term purposes.
We should maybe upgrade our stop level, but in other hand and taking into consideration the spikes this pattern may have, I rather give a bit more room, so we'll keep the exact same plan for now:
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $10.00
Regards !
Seeing the 1 year picture and the performance of the last sessions , we can see consecutive higher lows while the highs of the day remain at 11$.
This formed a rising triangle with a horizontal Resistance that needs to be broken or else we will see the triangle get broke in a downside fashion.
Don't you agree?
Quote from: Dracull on September 14, 2006, 06:03:13 PM
Seeing the 1 year picture and the performance of the last sessions , we can see consecutive higher lows while the highs of the day remain at 11$.
This formed a rising triangle with a horizontal Resistance that needs to be broken or else we will see the triangle get broke in a downside fashion.
Don't you agree?
Totally agree Dracull (applaud), GIGM is now performing a short term consolidation triangle, this setup is most likely to be broken to the upside, but a break to the downside would mean at least a longer consolidation pattern and a probably a test to the lower support levels.
Update:GIGM is still inside the triangular short term formation, resistance near $11.15 and first support going now up to $10.72. Like was said above, this kind of formations are most likely to be broken into the upside (it's a bullish consolidation pattern), that's what we expect from here, but nevertheless and since this short term outlook is now much more clear we're able to upgrade our stop level at this time, so the trading plan is:
Trading Plan:Hold GIGM with a stop @ $10.50Regards !
I know you guys have a good technical trading plan. Hopefully there will be some news to help an upside breakout. You may have seen this posted on Yahoo
Online gambling being considered by Chinese Gov. http://news.com.com/2061-12572_3-6115701.html
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 13, 2006, 01:42:36 PM
Basis the hourly chart below, GIGM broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle this morning at about 10.87 (it's difficult to calculate on these on intraday charts). That puts 11.48 IN PLAY, and also about 12.10 IN PLAY.
After the
11.48 target MADE (and was exceeded at the 11.55 high), GIGM sold off to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout (thin white down trendline).
The 12.10 remains IN PLAY as long as that down trendline holds, and it held yesterday, almost exactly. That hold of support is very nice, technically, and it's "suggestive" that the stock will go higher, but we know that there are no guarantees.
Quote from: Ramsburg on September 15, 2006, 01:41:33 AM
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $10.50
I like that, Frederick. Applause. It locks in a very nice gain.
The up trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle rises slightly more than a penny per hour, so it's currently at about 10.60. If it should break to the downside, it's certainly conceivable that GIGM will re-test the Rising Channel breakout, currently down near 9.80.
GIGM tried to break out the bull flag but unfortunately failed somewhat. I sold half my position as it pulled back from the days high as I didn't like the possibility of a failure pulling back to support. Although I still think there is a lot of upside power in the tank.
So, I don't want to miss any possible strong moves so I will have a re-entry strategy on 2 levels:
1) Enter on the breakout above $11.50 (which has proven tough to crack)
2) Enter on the pullback to support, this will start at the 9ema, but will watch how that goes.
I expect the Mahjong for money / licencing news release (if it happens) to be a great catalyst to add fuel. Also I see there is possibility (reported here in Chinese http://it.sohu.com/20060915/n245362409.shtml) that Yahoo might be buying Wretch (20% owned by GIGM) for $21M. So if that is true more $ to the bottom line in the pipe.
Good Trading
Quote from: AussieTrader on September 17, 2006, 06:12:12 AM
GIGM tried to break out the bull flag but unfortunately failed somewhat.
Aussie,
Ha! I just was studying that. Good observation!
The top of the short-term pattern came in on Friday at
11.597.
The top of the longer-term trendline from from the July 3 high came in at
11.66.Friday's high was
11.62.
Quote
I sold half my position as it pulled back from the days high as I didn't like the possibility of a failure pulling back to support.
Congratulations, and applause for your nice work on this stock.
Some observations:
1. At May record earnings, everything looked fine with the fundamentals. Lots of good news. Analyst upgrades, etc. GIGM topped right there, broke a Bearish Rising Wedge a few days later, and tanked more than 40%. UGH...
"When everything looks great...it's too late."
Not always. But, often. It's that counter-intuitivity of the market again: "Sell the good news...it's already been factored in," or "Buy the bad news...we already know that things are terrible."
The charts can help us to decide "when" to make those buy and sell decisions, like your decision to sell some at the top of this Bear Flag/or Bearish Rising Wedge, and see how it shakes out. That's very nice play, Aussie, banking some profit in order to defend against what could be at least a short-term selloff. As you say, you can get back in higher on a breakout, or get back in lower.
2. As I mentioned, in addition to the top of the short-term pattern being resistance so far, the intermediate-term trendline off the July 3 high of 9.13 clearly is acting as resistance, with 5 hits to it:
After the trendline was established, connecting Red #1 and Red #2, the trendline came in on:
September 8, at 11.429. The high was 11.48, for Hit #3
September 13, at 11.57. The high was 11.55, for Hit #4
September 15, at 11.66. The high was 11.62.
That trendline will come in on Monday, Septermber 18, at 11.707.
3. I've been posting hourly charts for the current pattern, after the Bullish Channel breakout (pattern in green on this daily chart).
It started out as a Symmetrical Triangle breakout, at about 10.87, (posted above, if anyone needs to refer). The target of 11.48, which was a return to the top of the pattern, MADE.
We now have the possibility, as you pointed out, Aussie, of a pattern "morph," or change, into a Bearish Rising Wedge/Bear Flag, and
I view the fact that the highs of this pattern are occurring right at the intermediate-term trendline off the July 3 high as an added caution.4. Basis this daily chart, the bottom of the current short-term pattern comes in on Monday, September 18, at 10.822. That "should be" first support on any selloff.
5. A break above the top of the trendline (the 5 hits) "should be" meaningful on the upside.
Good luck, everybody!
Quote from: Se7en on September 11, 2006, 03:54:26 PM
Bought it back last friday @ 10.28 and now sold my GIGM again @ 11.02 for a 7 % profit! ;D
Se7en,
Did you use the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the September 7 big white candle for that re-entry?
Quote
Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure that Se7en re-entered GIGM right at 10.28, after selling it above 11.00, then he sold it again above 11.00 (I think). I don't know if he used the .618 Fibonacci retracement for his 10.28 re-entry, but that was nice trading!
Whatever you used, that was TWO nice trades! Applause.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 17, 2006, 10:15:10 AM
Quote from: Se7en on September 11, 2006, 03:54:26 PM
Bought it back last friday @ 10.28 and now sold my GIGM again @ 11.02 for a 7 % profit! ;D
Se7en,
Did you use the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the September 7 big white candle for that re-entry?
Quote
Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure that Se7en re-entered GIGM right at 10.28, after selling it above 11.00, then he sold it again above 11.00 (I think). I don't know if he used the .618 Fibonacci retracement for his 10.28 re-entry, but that was nice trading!
Whatever you used, that was TWO nice trades! Applause.
Yes and no, I didn't exactly use it, but I tried to grab some shares around 10.30 somewhere halfway the big white candle, that was my goal! I must admit I was a bit lucky to buy it at almost the low of the day. On the other hand,l I had been watching it all day so I guess I was rewarded for my patience! :)
I'm curious what next week will bring, if it dips i will be a buyer around the 9MA @ 10.63, chart looks like it might go either way ...
Aussie and Melf, thanks a lot for your important inputs on this topic ;) (applaud)
Update:
Last Friday, GIGM opened strong with a gap up, breaking out the consolidation zone to new highs, but selling off after that and filling down the gap. The close was nice, since it was above the top of the consolidation zone, so despite the black candle GIGM is still acting according to its bullish pattern, but the candle itself was not a great sign and let us a bit apprehensive for short term.
We're going to upgrade our stop and wait developments:
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $10.70
Regards !
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 17, 2006, 07:43:13 AM
That trendline will come in on Monday, Septermber 18, at 11.707.
We're right there, at
11.70, for Hit #6 to that intermediate-term trendline, and GIGM is stalling a bit in recognition of that trendline resistance. GiGM needs to punch through here, and head for the 12.10 target that is IN PLAY.
In a situation like this, where a stock keeps finding resistance, it's not a bad idea to bank some like Aussie did, to defend against a selloff and possible break of the pattern. Especially this close (3.4%) to the 12.10 target.
Just a suggestion.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 18, 2006, 10:26:11 AM
In a situation like this, where a stock keeps finding resistance, it's not a bad idea to bank some like Aussie did, to defend against a selloff and possible break of the pattern. Especially this close (3.4%) to the 12.10 target.
Or would a trailing stop sometimes be useful for a stock in the 3SOF portfolio?
Quote from: Maestro on September 18, 2006, 12:39:20 PM
Or would a trailing stop sometimes be useful for a stock in the 3SOF portfolio?
Maestro,
Sure, that's fine, and Frederick is doing a nice job of raising the stop to preserve gains. Obviously, we can't know how these trades are going to work out, and when we find out, we always can say, "Coulda...shoulda...woulda."
Personally, I think any strategy that preserves a good part of a gain like this one in GIGM is good. Right now, it's about a 28% gain from Frederick's entry, so certainly nothing wrong with taking it, or taking part of it along the way.
Nothing wrong with using the 10.70 stop, and giving it a chance to go higher, either. ;)
It looks like it's trying to get to the 12.10 target, currently BID 11.80...ASK 11.81
Good luck, everybody!
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 13, 2006, 01:42:36 PM
Basis the hourly chart below, GIGM broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle this morning at about 10.87 (it's difficult to calculate on these on intraday charts). That puts 11.48 IN PLAY, and also about 12.10 IN PLAY.
We sprinted to
12.08. It couldn't do a lousy
two cents more? :D
Quote from: AussieTrader on September 17, 2006, 06:12:12 AM
So, I don't want to miss any possible strong moves so I will have a re-entry strategy on 2 levels:
1) Enter on the breakout above $11.50 (which has proven tough to crack)
2) Enter on the pullback to support, this will start at the 9ema, but will watch how that goes.
Re-entry strategy #1 was fired ;)
GIGM doing fine, up another 5,5%!
(http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/1558/gigmlc1.jpg)
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 18, 2006, 01:27:34 PM
We sprinted to 12.08. It couldn't do a lousy two cents more? :D
12.08 two cents from the
12.10 target IN PLAY, turns out to be a short-term top.
GIGM now has MADE three upside pattern targets:
1. 10.83
2. 11.48
3. 12.10 (12.08...close enough).
It's difficult to know where to take profits, which is why I said yesterday that 11.70 resistance was fine, and why I say that it isn't a bad idea to "take some profits when targets get MADE."
GIGM just broke this up trendline off the 10.44 low, to which there were 5 hits, so its now moved down a little more since this chart.
The important thing is to "control the trade," rather than allow it to control us. Try to decide where we're going to take profits ahead of time, then we're being objective, and not making emotional trading decisions.
GIGM currently is BID 11.24...ASK 11.25
Good luck, everyone!
EDIT: Sorry, I forgot to add the trendline. It's been corrected.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 19, 2006, 12:23:51 PM
GIGM just broke this up trendline off the 10.44 low, to which there were 5 hits, so its now moved down a little more since this chart.
Since the break below that trendline, GIGM went down and MADE the target from this morning's broken flag (11.16*), has been re-testing the broken trendline, and is trying to break back above it.
We don't want to see it fail there, form a Right Shoulder, then a break the 11.04 - 11.11 neckline.
*Math for the broken flag:
High: 12.08
Low: 11.63
12.08- 11.63 = 0.45 points.
The break occurred at 11.61.
11.61 - 0.45 points = Target: 11.16 IN PLAY (the low was 11.10)
GIGM currently is BID 11.43...ASK 11.44
Hmm-mm...I dunno, guys.
If this is a H&S Top, the Right Shoulder went a little higher than the Left Shoulder, which it shouldn't do, but then the neckline slopes up a little, so...
Here are some reasons to be cautious, short-term:
1. 3 upside targets MADE. That certainly doesn't mean that GIGM can't go higher, but often the stock corrects after that kind of move.
2. The Bearish downside target of 11.16 MADE. That's a behavior change for GIGM since this rally began, and is at least suggestive of a short-term change in trend. A "caution" sign, if you will.
Stocks that are in full-blown bullish mode generally don't make bearish targets.
3. The volume looks about right for a H&S Top. Typically, the volume is the highest in the Left Shoulder and the Head, then falls off, sometimes dramatically, in the formation of the Right Shoulder, suggesting that the rally is running out of steam.
The last volume spike was on the selloff to 11.10 today. The volume on this afternoon's rally fell off quite a bit.
Good luck, everyone! Frederick has done a fine job here, and this is a nice gain. Whatever decision that you make is fine, as long as it's a gain. ;)
Once again, thanks a lot for your serious inputs here Aussie and Melf, (applaud you both)
Update:
It's really difficult to choose the correct trading plan that best fits GIGM behaviour right now. Volatility remains very high, each candle is a huge 6% to 10% move with high volume, and it's becoming complex to filter the real move from the price noise...
We've been moving our stop level higher, and I believe that the best we can do right now. So trying to keep this chart analysis as simple as it gets, I'll be focusing in the last technical pattern we spotted: the ascending triangle, this give us a support near $11.10 (the top of the earlier range without spikes), and yesterday the low of the day was exactly there so we can see it as a retest.
My common sense tells me that GIGM is willing to move further higher, at least on a mid term approach, but in case of a breakdown of the $11.10 support we may see GIGM as low as its ascending support line at $9.75. So we are moving our stop once again, and this time we'll put it just a little below yesterday's low, so the trading plan is:
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.07
Regards !)
Basis the Hourly Chart posted above, if this is a H&S Top, the neckline was at 11.07 or 11.08 when the high of 12.08 was put in, so if it breaks to the downside, we subtract $1.00 (we'll use the more conservative 11.08) from the point of the break to get the downside target IN PLAY.
Let's say that the pattern breaks at 11.13. That would put a downside target of
10.13 IN PLAY.
If we connect the highs on the chart (purple trendline) prior to the recent breakout, that trendline comes in today, September 20, at
10.136.
In addition to the "possible" H&S Top on the hourly chart, we've got what looks like a Bear Flag (pattern in red) on the daily chart. We'll have to see if we get data point #4 at the bottom of the flag. Bearish Rising Wedge?
Bigger picture, we will keep in mind that GIGM hasn't got much resistance here, going back to 2000, so this simply could ratchet its way higher, but we could be in for a re-test of that purple trendline if these patterns break to the downside.
Quote from: Ramsburg on September 20, 2006, 01:32:27 AM
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.07
Nice job managing the trade, Frederick. Applause.
For the 3rd time in a couple of weeks in/out GIGM with a 4,5% gain now! :)
New 52 week high today, if it comes back down to the 4 or 9 ma, I'll try to get back in!
(http://img166.imageshack.us/img166/8171/gigmwq2.jpg)
Hey Melf, Rams and fellow GIGM'ers.
GIGM weekly chart shows a classic cup without handle pattern which historically is a very strong indicative pattern for huge winners. If you have read William O'Neil then you will understand what I mean. Sure daily volatility has increased but that I think is to be expected, the weekly chart looks smooth as silk ;) I don't want to lose my position in GIGM at the moment.
Hey Se7en,
Good Trading.
Interesting target Aussie... I really like it ;) And yes, the Cup without handle pattern is a common way to try to measure the upside potential on charts like this one... The subtract/sum math of the previous range will give a technical potential of $14.60 IN PLAY. This is not a sure thing, but at least is something to motivate us on this trade, isn't it ? ;)
Update:
What a really nice session for GIGM, a new high and a new high close over consistent volume. This second consolidation is looking more aggressive to the upside, keeping momentum hot.
Our only job right now is to manage our stop level in order to assure we keep riding this move without compromising our position, the potential is still very high but so is intraday volatility, so we'll keep the stop at the same place today:
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.07
Regards !)
Frederick and Aussie,
Yes, very nice day for GIGM.
The intraday H&S Top possibitlity no longer is a problem since the Head was taken out with the new high for the move. The Bear Flag/Channel, however, still could present a problem, short-term. The top of it comes in today, September 21, at 12.38.
Longer-term, Aussie's pattern is bullish, especially since it occurs with no overhead resistance, going back to 2000. I get a target of 14.88 IN PLAY, as long as GIGM remains above the purple trendline, which could get re-tested if the current channel breaks to the downside.
That kind of pullback wouldn't be at all unreasonable. GIGM has rallied almost 100% in a little over 3 months, and it would be only a .382% (or less) retracement/digestion of that gain.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 21, 2006, 07:33:35 AM
The Bear Flag/Channel, however, still could present a problem, short-term. The top of it comes in today, September 21, at 12.38.
Some initial hesitation, at least, at the top of the Bear Flag/Channel in the early going. The high so far is
12.37.GIGM sure seems to respond well, at least initially, to targets (we've gotten 4), to trendlines and to pattern breakouts, like the 9.43...9.46...9.49 re-tests of the last channel breakout (arrows on the chart). A lot of that has to do with the fact that it's a liquid stock (relatively high average daily volume), so widely followed.
This could accelerate to the upside, if the top of this channel (
12.38 for today) gets taken out by more than a penny or three. Murderous on the shorts, if that should occur, who already have been badly squeezed.
"Don't stand in front of a freight train." :o
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 21, 2006, 07:33:35 AM
The Bear Flag/Channel, however, still could present a problem, short-term. The top of it comes in today, September 21, at 12.38.
The close was
12.38 ,
exactly. Quote from: Melf Elf on September 21, 2006, 10:35:56 AM
GIGM sure seems to respond well, at least initially, to targets (we've gotten 4), to trendlines and to pattern breakouts, like the 9.43...9.46...9.49 re-tests of the last channel breakout (arrows on the chart).
It sure does, closing like that! It must have a good sense of humor. ;D >:D
Update:
A new high @ $12.55 ;) Following the recent logic and price behaviour, we may have another consolidation here (or maybe not)...
It's never wrong to take a profit, but its difficult to leave such a powerful position moving like this to the upside, our top target for this short term swing is located above $14.50, our entry was at $9.17, since our strategy has been just upgrading our stops to «fair» values we'll have some difficulties to sell this position at or near the target, so today we'll set a limit sell order and once again we'll upgrade our stop here, the new trading plan:
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.25 and a Limit Sell order @ $13.25
Regards !
Update:
No special developments on GIGM, the stock is once again consolidating the recent highs, the trend remains bullish, momentum is high and volume is still strong. We'll keep the same trading plan for the moment:
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.25 and a Limit Sell order @ $13.25
Regards !
Update:
The last 2 sessions were not good for GIGM... It lost a bit of momentum, volume has decreased, and an ascending support was broken...
This is a difficult decision, since we don't want to lose our position in GIGM just in case the swing has more to give for the short term, but in the other hand we don't want to skin our nice profit here... So we'll be setting an aggressive stop level, just bellow yesterday's lows.
In case GIGM start a bigger correction, we may try to catch it near the $10.00 support level (that's a possibility), so the new trading plan is:
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.50 and a Limit Sell order @ $13.25
Regards !
Position Closed by stop @ $11.50 following the plan (+25% profit).
Quote from: Ramsburg on September 28, 2006, 10:27:51 AM
Position Closed by stop @ $11.50 following the plan (+25% profit).
I jumped out of GIGM a little early at 11.51 as I saw it start to drop fast, and also sold AMD a little early also at 24.96. But applaud to you Rams for this great find, and lets hope we can pick it up again and make more money! ;D
Jumped out of GIGM yesterday but got in today again at 11.05
Got kicked out from DIVX yesterday at 21.80 surprised by the last minutes rally
Trying to buy again today at 21.20 but missed it by 8 cents so far
GLTA
Quote from: tokyopua on September 28, 2006, 10:40:01 AM
Quote from: Ramsburg on September 28, 2006, 10:27:51 AM
Position Closed by stop @ $11.50 following the plan (+25% profit).
I jumped out of GIGM a little early at 11.51 as I saw it start to drop fast, and also sold AMD a little early also at 24.96. But applaud to you Rams for this great find, and lets hope we can pick it up again and make more money! ;D
Thanks tokyopua,
I'm sure this will not be our last trade in GIGM >:D
regards,
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 21, 2006, 04:16:48 PM
The Bear Flag/Channel, however, still could present a problem, short-term. The top of it comes in today, September 21, at 12.38.
The close was 12.38 , exactly.
The top of the Bear Flag/Channel on September 21 turned out to be a short-term top. The intraday fakeout/breakout above it, to 12.55, looks like it could be Wave #5 of a Bearish Wolfe Wave.
If it is, GIGM will seek the target line (#6) which is derived by connecting the high at #1 with the low of #4, then extending it.
Quote from: Ramsburg on September 28, 2006, 10:27:51 AM
Position Closed by stop @ $11.50 following the plan (+25% profit).
That's great, Frederick. Congratulations, and applause for the great job!
Sold now at 11.39 for a daytrade of 3% and looking forward to Met Elf's # 6 target
Nice trade Ramsburg. Applaude. :)
Thanks guys ;) It was a nice trade.
GIGM dropped to near the $11.10 support zone, some reaction there, but the short term pattern is now a bit weak, with lost of momentum and some late buyers getting squeezed...
I really enjoy GIGM for the long run, I'm not sure what could be the short term behaviour of GIGM, but it has an ascending support near $10.10, and that could be a nice re-entry zone in case of further correction.
So we'll be letting a standby re-entry plan for this position:
Trading plan:
Buy GIGM again inside the $10.00/$10.30 range.
Regards,
wonder how this would effect gigm.
US Congress ticks Net gambling ban bill
September 30, 2006 - 4:59PM
Most forms of internet gambling would be banned under a bill that received final US congressional approval on Saturday.
The House of Representatives and Senate approved the measure and sent it to President George W Bush to sign into law.
The bill, a compromise between earlier versions passed by the two chambers, would make it illegal for banks and credit card companies to make payments to online gambling sites.
Democrats had accused Republicans of pushing the bill to placate its conservative base, particularly the religious right, before the Nov. 7 congressional elections.
"It's been over 10 years in the making. The enforcement provisions provided by this bill will go a long way to stop these illegal online operations," said Sen. Jon Kyl, an Arizona Republican and a chief sponsor of the measure.
Negotiators from the Republican-led House and Senate reached a deal on the legislation Friday and attached it to unrelated legislation to bolster port security, which the Congress approved.
The final bill dropped earlier provisions opposed by some gaming interests that would have clarified that a 1961 federal law banning interstate telephone betting also covers an array of online gambling.
Investors in British-based gaming companies such as BETonSPORTS Plc, Partygaming Plc and 888 Holdings Plc have tracked the legislation.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, a Tennessee Republican and potential 2008 presidential candidate, recently appeared at a hearing in Iowa - the state that holds the first presidential nominating contest for the 2008 election - to listen to concerns about internet gambling.
As far as I know GIGM activity does not include the US
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PRTY.L
PartyGaming dropping 60%. Not sure if we want to re-enter at $10
Update:
All the online gaming related stocks should be down today; although GIGM is not a direct player on the US we'll quit this re-entry strategy for the moment and wait on the sidelines.
Trading Plan:
No plan / cancel any entry order in place and wait on the sidelines.
njshiva and valueseeker,
Thanks for the alerts. Applauds.
If GIGM gets trashed with the sector and gaps down, or falls below, the Bearish Wolfe Wave target line at #6 (about 10.61 at the open), I'm thinking that it will test DOUBLE support around 10.10. If that doesn't hold, possibly 9.55 - 9.60. See next two posts for those two.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 02, 2006, 07:53:56 AM
I'm thinking that it will test DOUBLE support around 10.10.
Roughly 10.10 is both the top of the big pattern breakout (purple trendline), and the top of the little Rising Channel (pattern in green) that provided support on three occasions, at 9.43, 9.46 and 9.49, prior to the big pattern breakout.
If GIGM falls below the purple trendline, the upside target of 14.88 goes ON HOLD.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 02, 2006, 07:53:56 AM
If that doesn't hold, possibly 9.55 - 9.60. See next two posts for those two.
Basis the intraday chart, the Bearish Wolfe Wave also has the look of a H&S Top. Neckline: 11.10 and 11.03. The neckline was at about 11.08 when the 12.55 high of the Head was put in, so if it breaks to the downside, that would put a target of 9.55 IN PLAY.
Math:
12.55 - 11.08 = 1.47 points
A break at 11.02 - 1.47 points = Target: 9.55 IN PLAY
The 50DMA was at 9.59 on Friday's close.
Just some patterns/price levels to watch.
GIGM gapping down hard on the news that the US Congress passed a bill cracking down on internet gambling. This totally killed a lot of other UK based gaming companies today (e.g. Partygaming, one of the biggest in the UK down over 60%). Now while we know that GIGM have no interests in US gambling markets, how heavy do people think this is going to affect GIGM? Could we see a move back to the $7 range here?
Any thoughts on whether this should be seen as a buying op (presumably GIGM is still fine despite this) or will the market repercussions will weigh on GIGM for some time?
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 02, 2006, 08:11:56 AM
The 50DMA was at 9.59 on Friday's close.
CORRECTION: Sorry, 9.59 was Thursday's reading. The 50DMA was 9.67 at Friday's close.
GIGM currently is indicated at BID 9.90 - ASK 9.99. We'll see if it can climb a little, to 10.10 DOUBLE support, or if that's going to get broken at the open.
Frederick, your 11.50 exit and 25% profit looks even better than it already did! ;)
Wow! Thank you 3SoF for helping me out of this position. GIGM was a huge gainer for me from last year.
down $1.5 in less that 10mins... more than 1million trade. :o
glad 3sof pulled the trigger on this one last week.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 02, 2006, 08:41:14 AM
We'll see if it can climb a little, to 10.10 DOUBLE support, or if that's going to get broken at the open.
Gap down below 10.10, and in the early going,
10.10 - 10-11 is RESISTANCE, rather than the support that it "should have been."
broke the 10.10. Anybody reentering?
D
Quote from: danman3459 on October 02, 2006, 10:11:12 AM
broke the 10.10. Anybody reentering?
D
I decided to take a speculative position at $9.4... I think the market overreacted.. looking good so far :)
I also reentered at 9.40 and lookng forward to sell today around 10.35
Just got confirmation out again at 10.37
Quote from: jorgegr on October 02, 2006, 10:55:57 AM
Just got confirmation out again at 10.37
So you're the bastard who blocked my 10.39. :P
JK.
GREAT buy here under $10 ! ;D
Congress has spoken..
lots of companys took a hit because of this.
but i still think there is potential here.
it will touch bottom not to far from where it is today and i see a great potential here,
this one might recover to last week prices in a month or two.
This has always straight been a CHINA play ! It bounced off the 50 MA, hopefully it does not close below that anytime ! ;D
When the dust settles on this insane antin internet gambling legislation GIGM should be OK. Today presented a great short term buy and sell opportunity. Sitting on long term support nicely, bbut be prepared for further negative rides when George W signs off the law.
Shame a great chart has been corrupted. I read an interesting piece stating that surely if companies listed in the US are engaged in illegal activities e.g. internet gambling, then surely they must be delisted from the US exchanges? Interesting point of view as a consequence of the legislation :o
So you're the bastard who blocked my 10.39.
JK.
Did'nt know I had a twin brother :o
Quote from: Ramsburg on October 02, 2006, 06:46:01 AM
Update:
All the online gaming related stocks should be down today; although GIGM is not a direct player on the US we'll quit this re-entry strategy for the moment and wait on the sidelines.
Trading Plan:
No plan / cancel any entry order in place and wait on the sidelines.
I have to applaud 3SOF and you Ramsburg again for tracking GIGM after the fact and making the call to cancel the re-entry. I had a limit order in that would have gotten triggered and likely lost me some money as I paniced watching the stock continue to drop to 9. But seeing the daily update and the reason for the cancelation, I killed that order and didnt lose money :D
Good service and diligence!
up today ???
GigaMedia: Pure Play Non-USA Business
Tuesday October 3, 6:54 am ET
All Revenues From Non-U.S. Markets
TAIPEI, Taiwan, Oct. 3 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- In light of the passage of new restrictions on online gaming in the U.S., GigaMedia Limited (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) would like to clarify that it has been and remains a pure play international business -- with no U.S. source revenue.
GigaMedia therefore anticipates no adverse financial impact from the new legislation.
"As a major provider of online entertainment software for the enormous non-English language markets of the world, we are very enthusiastic about our growth and market prospects," said Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang.
"GigaMedia has been a first mover in providing truly localized solutions for Europe and Asia," explained CEO Wang. "Our focus and extensive experience in the international markets is both the foundation and future catalyst of our strong growth."
GIGM statement:
GigaMedia: Pure Play Non-USA Business
Tuesday October 3, 6:54 am ET
All Revenues From Non-U.S. Markets
TAIPEI, Taiwan, Oct. 3 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- In light of the passage of new restrictions on online gaming in the U.S., GigaMedia Limited (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) would like to clarify that it has been and remains a pure play international business -- with no U.S. source revenue.
GigaMedia therefore anticipates no adverse financial impact from the new legislation.
"As a major provider of online entertainment software for the enormous non-English language markets of the world, we are very enthusiastic about our growth and market prospects," said Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang.
"GigaMedia has been a first mover in providing truly localized solutions for Europe and Asia," explained CEO Wang. "Our focus and extensive experience in the international markets is both the foundation and future catalyst of our strong growth."
Ramsburg,
Is this the time to reenter?
As it should be! ::)
Amarens
October 13 - RSIs - Across The Board Sell Signal in GIGM at 11.00 even.
As a result of the severe move down to 9.05 on October 2, all measures of relative strength in the Fibonacci pairings that I use (13...21..34...55...89...144...233) turned bearish.
On Thursday, October 12, all of them still were bearishly positioned, and most of them came into Bearish Synchronicity, meaning that the readings were reasonably close, and that the lower numbers were bearishly positioned below the next higher number in the Fibonacci sequence.
I use the low of the day when the RSIs come into Bearish Synchronicity as the "sell pivot." The low on October 12 was 11.01, so that means that a print of 11.00 on Friday, October 13 was the number where the sell signal would be issued.
Friday's low was 10.89, so the sell signal was given. The close was 11.01.
I never view any indictor as TELLING US to sell, as in, "RSI 'said' sell." I view signals as "You've been warned! You better take a close look at the price chart, then decide whether or not you want to take the signal." I say that because indicators don't have a clue what the price chart looks like, but we do.
We'll look at it in the next post.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 16, 2006, 04:55:20 AM
I never view any indictor as TELLING US to sell, as in, "RSI 'said' sell." I view signals as "You've been warned! You better take a close look at the price chart, then decide whether or not you want to take the signal."
What does the chart look like?
1. GIGM printed a low of 9.05 on October 5, bounced off the top of the Kumo (Cloud), which was at 9.0525, and looks to have gone into a Bearish Rising Wedge, gap-filling rally.
2. The gap down from 11.20 on September 29 was filled at Thursday's high of 11.25.
3. Thursday's high was within three cents of being Hit #3 to the top of the Bearish Rising Wedge.
4. Thursday's candlestick looks to be a Spinning Top: a little candle, with a small real body (the little black part, which represents a higher open and a lower close).
5. Although Friday's candle violated the bottom of the Bearish Rising Wedge, it managed a close back inside the pattern. The candle is a Bearish Doji Star Hangman if taken out to the downside, but the upward slope of the bottom of the pattern is very severe.
This pattern could morph a little on us. Maybe go down and take out Friday's low, then make another bid for the top of the pattern? ???
What I often find when these RSI signals are given, is just that. Some pattern morphing, some ratcheting its way higher toward the top of the pattern,
then it sells off.
I'll show you two examples of that in the next post.
These signals can take awhile to play out.
Long-time followers of this thread will remember the H&S Top in the 13/21 RSIs at May earnings (see chart above). That one didn't take any time at all to play out. GIGM tanked on the first attempt to get back through the Bearish Rising Wedge, then tanked again in June, where we can see on this chart that the RSIs rallied to broken support (blue trendline), went into Bearish Synchronicity, then tanked.
In June, the RSIs came into Bearish Synchronity right away, off the 6.18 low (red #1). That one took a little longer. The RSIs rallied again, still in Bearish Synchronicity, to red #2. GIGM failed at the top of the Kumo (Cloud) right there.
The red #1, 2, and 3 in July is a good example of how these signals can "ratchet their way higher," then the stock sells off. That one was the big volume reversal, at August earnings.
Conclusion:
1. No signal ALWAYS works.
2. The overall chart in GIGM still is bullish, but it also was bullish when we got the 43% selloff from May earnings. I don't expect that kind of selloff here, but you never know.
3. I'd say there's a decent chance of at least one more bid for the top of the Bearish Rising Wedge, but we've also been "warned," so we'll take that under advisement.
Data Points for the top of the Bearish Rising Wedge:
October 16 - 11.43
October 17 - 11.525
October 18 - 11.617 (the Rising Channel (red) broke down at 11.58 on September 28)
MACD is out of position, and rallying back toward its signal line. If GIGM ratchets its way higher here, we possibly could get a back kiss, or close to it, then a failure at the signal line.
GIGM yesterday got caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.
11.17 was the bottom of the broken Bearish Rising Wedge (ROCK)
11.10 was the high on the day 11.08 was where the down trendline off the 12.55 high came in (HARD PLACE)
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 16, 2006, 04:55:20 AM
October 13 - RSIs - Across The Board Sell Signal in GIGM at 11.00 even.
Given the technical weakness, GIGM took the path of least resistance, which was down.
This still could ratchet its way higher against the unfavorable technicals, as I explained yesterday morning, but given that sell signal at 11.00, it simply could go lower.
When GIGM got trashed on October 2, it broke below and closed below the top of the Symmetrical Triangle (nearly horizontal purple trendline, currently down around 10.00). What would look nice, technically, is for GIGM to go down there and HOLD, indicating, "I was just kidding...that really is support," then go up and knock out that blue down trendline.
That would give us a Symmetrical Triangle Bullish Continuation breakout, which we can discuss if that scenario should eventuate.
For now, the caution flag is out with the RSI Across The Board Sell at 11.00.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 17, 2006, 05:26:15 AM
For now, the caution flag is out with the RSI Across The Board Sell at 11.00.
GIGM was down only 4.8% this week which wasn't bad, given that "The Force" wasn't with it, technially, with the RSI Across The Board Sell at 11.00 a week ago Friday, and with Monday's break below the Bearish Rising Wedge.
I've removed the latter from the chart, since it was rising so sharply. It's not a factor, near-term.
Despite short-term technical difficulities, GIGM still is longer-term bullish, and the target of 14.88 still is IN PLAY as long as it trades above the purple trendline.
What would look
really, really nice from here, is for GIGM to go down to about 9.95 - 10.00, then rally. I say that because:
1. After the October 4 breakdown below the Big Symmetrical Triangle (purple), it would re-establish that trendline breakout as support.
2. It would give us Data Point #4 of another Symmetrical Triangle, a fractal (repeating pattern) of the other two Symmetrical Triangles.
3. It would be support at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), which "should" act as support here. It's at 9.95 as of Friday's close. It probably will rise a little.
Yesterday looked like The Bulls staged a failed coup d' etat, rallying it to 10.95 then retreating, and closing down a bit on the day.
We end up with:
1. A false breakout above the down trendline off the 12.55 high.
2. Failure below 11.03 resistance, at the top of the Kumo (Cloud)
3. Failure below the RSI Across The Board Sell Signal, at 11.00
4. A Bearish Inverted Hangman at resistance (needs downside confirmation)
This is longer-term Bullish, so the Bulls still could successfully pull off another attempt at the upside here. But, it would have looked better, technically, if The Bulls simply had given it up at the outset, and gone down and re-established support at the top of the Symmetrical Triangle (purple trendline).
Inspite of the recent gaming legislation this one didnt lose much of value in price. I am gonna get into gigm when they announce their earnings date.
Melf-elf..great follow up you have been doing on gigm.
So you get a special........ ;)
Bought GIGM at 9.92.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 24, 2006, 05:22:47 AM
But, it would have looked better, technically, if The Bulls simply had given it up at the outset, and gone down and re-established support at the top of the Symmetrical Triangle (purple trendline).
This is what I was looking for yesterday. The top of the Ascending Triangle is at about 9.98 for today. If we close very much below here, I'll stop it out. This area "should be" support.
Quote from: njshiva on October 24, 2006, 08:06:43 AM
Melf-elf..great follow up you have been doing on gigm.
So you get a special........ ;)
njshiva,
Ha! That was funny. Thanks. I was gettin' lonely in here. :D
EDIT: Sorry, the chart would post. Try again..
Hi Melf,
Just writing in to say you're not alone!! :D I just jumped in this one as well as I like the double support. Let's make some money!! >:D
Thai
Quote from: thai626 on October 24, 2006, 11:39:31 AM
Hi Melf,
Just writing in to say you're not alone!! :D I just jumped in this one as well as I like the double support. Let's make some money!! >:D
Hey, Thai!
I just calculated the trendline for the top of the Ascending Triangle (purple lline on this morning's chart). It comes in today at
9.974. I don't like the fact that we're spending so much time below that. We're not
much below it, but Bulls "should be" jumping all over this re-test as an opportunity to re-ente,r after selling the Bear Channel break, at 11.58, on Septermber 28th.
The current price is 17% discount to that nice exit.
They aren't buying. ??? ::)
I'm not fond of wimpy Bulls. Or, wimpy Bears, for that matter. :D
If we don't close at 9.97, or better, this re-test is HIGHLY suspect.
I've decided to give it until 9.69, max. That's a penny below the October 4 reaction low of 9.70 after the October 2 smash to 9.05. That would be a loss of 2.3% from my 9.92 entry. I might even dump it before that, if we don't get the close at, or above, the 9.974 trendline.
I don't want to ride this all the way back to 9.05. Or, lower. >:(
Good luck, Thai!
Thai,
It's looking a bit better.
Something like a neckline up at 10.21, then a Right Shoulder and a breakout, would be nice. ;D
At this point, just a close at 9.97, or better, would be nice. ;)
A close at 10.27, or better, would give us a Bullish Hammer.
That would be real nice. :D
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 24, 2006, 12:02:28 PM
I might even dump it before that, if we don't get the close at, or above, the 9.974 trendline.
Thai,
Well-ll, my friend...
We've got a Symmetrical Triangle on the 5-minute chart that has broken to the downside. >:(
The Bulls have done a lousy job of defending the top of the Ascending Triangle. If they're not going to represent it, I'm not interested.
If I don't see something that looks very close to
9.974 at the close, I'll dump it. :P
Ticks me off, after wasting so much time watching this thing the past week and a half (we need a Cranky Face on the toolbar).
That "Undecided Face" looks cranky. Let's try that one > > > :-\
GIGM currently is BID 9.96...ASK
9.97And, The Bulls
aren't jumping all over it. :'(
Grumble...grumble...grumble.... >:(
Sold GIGM at 9.83. Loss: 0.9%
This is one of those trades that I used to hang onto, "feeling" that it probably will rally like gangbusters tomorrow. It "should" rally tomorrow.
It didn't hold that trendline.
Take the small loss, and move on. ;)
Coulda...shoulda...would...
I shoulda sold that break of the Symmetrical Triangle on the 5-Minute chart. That was a pretty good clue that The Bulls weren't defending the trendline.
I coulda had a small gain.
Move on, Melf.
Coulda...shoulda...woulda :D
:-\ What a bad close eh Melf!!
That's very unfortunate! I will be putting in a stop tomorrow as I got in a 9.91. i will give it a little breathing room but not much. :-\ I'm hoping some of my losses if I were to take any would be covered by the gains from NTRZ.ob. >:D
i'm just going to hope for the best tomorrow. Good luck Melf with your next investment!
Thai
Quote from: thai626 on October 24, 2006, 05:49:28 PM
:-\ What a bad close eh Melf!!
Thai,
Yeah. Lousy.
Quote
That's very unfortunate! I will be putting in a stop tomorrow as I got in a 9.91. i will give it a little breathing room but not much. :-\ I'm hoping some of my losses if I were to take any would be covered by the gains from NTRZ.ob. >:D
Good for you, Thai, and I'm happy to know that you have a nice gain in NTZR.ob. I don't follow those.
USE A STOP, and don't let a "mistake" turn into a disaster. GIGM "could" rally like gangbusters tomorrow, but I never again am going be to a "bagholder" in any stock.
This one CLOSED below trendline support.
Noo-oo-o....."Been There...Done That."
Recent example....BDCO...
I stopped it out for a 1.7% loss on the break of bullish-looking Symmetrical Triangle "Continuation Pattern," after the HUGE upside gain!
Definitely "looked" bullish...until that break. What if I'd "hung on," HOPING.
WRONG.
At today's close, if I had "held," and "hoped" that it would turn out bullish....
WRONG.
I'd be a HUGE "bagholder," to the tune of a loss of 24.2%, and the danged thing just broke below a Symmetrical triangle.
Arrrrgh....
It "Could" find support at the last low....
Arrrgh....
GET ME OUTTA THIS THING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm real, real happy with my 1.7% loss. ;)
Melf,
0.9% loss, any loss sucks, but gotta applaud your discipline not to take larger losses on a consistent basis!
Ive been busy lately, but when I didnt sell ASTM yesterday and today when it hit the 200sma, I was reminded again of your trades in GNBT, and how I didnt learn my lesson yet :( "Sell when targets are made" and to me that was the target.
Along the lines of these declining stocks, was wondering if I could get a bit of "Melfian Analysis" on the GNBT thread, I got back in today thinking the 200 sma would be support, but, uh, it wasnt.
Also, got in EMFP recently at .8 based on previous candlestick support, I will probalby be stubborn about that stock despite the horrendous chart, but was wondering if you think I could see a rounded bottom out of it? Or anything positive, lol?
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 24, 2006, 04:15:24 PM
Sold GIGM at 9.83. Loss: 0.9%
This is one of those trades that I used to hang onto, "feeling" that it probably will rally like gangbusters tomorrow. It "should" rally tomorrow.
It didn't hold that trendline.
Take the small loss, and move on. ;)
Coulda...shoulda...would...
I shoulda sold that break of the Symmetrical Triangle on the 5-Minute chart. That was a pretty good clue that The Bulls weren't defending the trendline.
I coulda had a small gain.
Move on, Melf.
Coulda...shoulda...woulda :D
Let's not panic here...yet. I find it interesting that noone has mentioned the alignment GIGM's responsiveness to Fibonacci retracement levels. I normally am not a huge fan and treat them more like a phenomena than a trading indicator. In any case...drop some Fibs onto the latest move from the July low to the Sep top. We closed just at the 38.1% and 9.71-5 look sliek the 50%. It's responded to 38.1 and 50% and 61% fairly consistently...9.07 represents the 61%...Let's hope that the 50% holds.
Fundamentally, this one will e governed by whatevet the major hedge (Ansar Mgmt?) decides to do...
Thanks all for providing a great board...let's keep it up
Eric
>:D >:D EVIL EVIL EVIL >:D >:D
HAHA! Lucky I decided to cancel my stop limit (boy, do I have a bad habit or what LOL!!!) :D
I'll just ride this puppy for the long term. This was a stock I wanted to get in at the 2's after seeing it in the ticker streamer everday single morning on CNBC LOL. It's just gotta do me some good!!
C'mon DIVX, I just sold you this morning to pick you up cheaper. Come on baby......come to papa!! ;D
Thai
Quote from: tokyopua on October 24, 2006, 08:58:30 PM
Melf,
0.9% loss, any loss sucks, but gotta applaud your discipline not to take larger losses on a consistent basis!
tok,
Thanks. Yeah, I try very hard to limit my losses.
The top of the Ascending Triangle (purple line) "should have been" support. I tired to play it there, but it
wasn't support.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 16, 2006, 04:55:20 AM
October 13 - RSIs - Across The Board Sell Signal in GIGM at 11.00 even.
Especially with that RSI Across The Board Sell Signal at 11.00 still in effect, I got out and took the 0.9% loss. I don't have a problem with trying to make that kind of play. GIGM was longer-term bullish, and it was reasonable to expect "former resistance to become support."
I'll tell you what I
do have a problem with, though. ;D >:D
With that RSI Across The Board Sell Signal, after the Bearish Rising Wedge gap-filling rally off the 9.05 low, and then this...
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 17, 2006, 05:26:15 AM
GIGM yesterday got caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.
11.17 was the bottom of the broken Bearish Rising Wedge (ROCK)
11.10 was the high on the day
11.08 was where the down trendline off the 12.55 high came in (HARD PLACE)
...why the heck didn't I go SHORT this danged thing? Duh-h... ??? ::) ;D
Geez, where's that Embarrassed Face? > > > :-[
That was a very nice risk:reward trade back up there, and GIGM was telegraphing short-term bearishness in both the chart behavior, and in the indicators, as I explained back then.
We need a STOOPID Face on the toolbar. :D >:D
The trade:
Short 11.00.
Stop above the October 12 high of 11.25. Target: 9.97, the Top of the Ascending line.
Risk: a loss of 2.3% Reward: 9.4%, for a better than 1:4 risk:reward.
The top of the Ascending triangle not only didn't hold, as support,
it became resistance again on Thursday: the high got only to 9.98, and to 9.99 on Friday, then GIGM took out Thursday's low, and sold off on Friday, back toward the lows.
That trendline is at least short-term resistance again, and the 14.88 target is ON HOLD.
Quote
Ive been busy lately, but when I didnt sell ASTM yesterday and today when it hit the 200sma, I was reminded again of your trades in GNBT, and how I didnt learn my lesson yet :( "Sell when targets are made" and to me that was the target.
I know. Sometimes stocks go a lot higher than the targets, but I've learned to take at least some profits when targets get MADE.
Look at this last long trade in GIGM, for example. We had 3 upside targets from about 10.83 - 12.10, and the last closing high, at 12.38, was exactly on the top of the Bear Channel (red).
All 3 targets had MADE. If we
didn't take the profits...GIGM now is at 9.53. >:(
Quote
Along the lines of these declining stocks, was wondering if I could get a bit of "Melfian Analysis" on the GNBT thread, I got back in today thinking the 200 sma would be support, but, uh, it wasnt.
Also, got in EMFP recently at .8 based on previous candlestick support, I will probalby be stubborn about that stock despite the horrendous chart, but was wondering if you think I could see a rounded bottom out of it? Or anything positive, lol?
Sorry that I didn't get to those, tok. I try to participate in folders on an "as can" basis, but I can't get to very many of them because I'm too danged tedious when I look at charts, like this one. ;D
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 24, 2006, 04:15:24 PM
Sold GIGM at 9.83. Loss: 0.9%
Bought GIGM yesterday at 9.53 on the rally back to UNCH, off the 9.09 low. Stop: 9.04, below the October 2 low. Risk: a loss of 5.1%
Sorry, this site was down yesterday, so I couldn't post the trade in a timely manner, but that might be for the best, if I get busted out of the trade.
Again. :P
Reason for trade:
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 28, 2006, 04:23:47 AM
The top of the Ascending triangle not only didn't hold, as support, it became resistance again on Thursday: the high got only to 9.98, and to 9.99 on Friday, then GIGM took out Thursday's low, and sold off on Friday, back toward the lows.
After that failure at the Top of the Ascending Triangle, a re-test of the October 2 low (9.05) looked marked, and possibly lower.
We got that re-test yesterday, but GIGM not only held the 9.05 low and
didn't go lower, it:
1. Held almost smack on the up trendline coming off the 6.18 low. A "third hit" to a trendline validates as support
2. Established the "missing" Data Point #4 off the 12.55 high for another pattern, and for another possible pattern breakout
3. Closed higher on the day
4. Put in a Bullish Hammer, off a possible DOUBLE bottom, and off the 6.18 trendline validation
5. Got an uptick in the MACD Histogram, after already showing a postive divergence (see next chart)
GIGM had some technical damage done the chart on that October 2 smackdown in the sector. It's had time to repair that damage, while at the same time, has digested the better than 100% gain off the 6.18 low. It gave back 27.9% from the 12.55 high to the 6.05 low.
That's "normal" in a Bull Market.
What
wouldn't be "just a normal correction," would be if GIGM now takes out 9.05-9.09 support. That would further damage the chart by busting the DOUBLE bottom, and by busting that up trendline off 6.18. GIGM likely would be in for more of a correction.
I'm risking 5.1% on the idea that this has been "just a normal corection" in a longer-term Bullish trend.
Well, okay....6% since I already lost 0.9% when the top of the Ascending Triangle didn't hold.
Curses! :D >:D
Happy Halloween, by the way. >:D >:D >:D
MACD
Nice showing from GIGM yesterday, in difficult market conditions.
On Tuesday, it sold off from key resistance at the top of the May-August Symmetrical Triangle (purple trendline). That "should have been" support, but the Bulls wimped on us at that trendline on October 24, and allowed the stock to close below it, at 9.84.
:P :'(
As a result, GIGM got sent down to 9.09 and is attempting to dig itself out of a hole. "The hole" is this area below the purple trendline, which is "ground level" for the stock to be bullish.
We're in a Neutral Zone, as long as we remain in this hole; Bearish if the validated trendline down at blue #4, and if 9.05-9.09 support gets broken to the downside.
Resistance is right here, and on up:
1. Immediate resistance at the purple trendline (top of the May-September Symmetrical Triangle)
2. The down trendline (blue) off the 12.55 high
3. The entire Kumo (Cloud)
That's some pretty stiff resistance! :o
If the overall chart weren't bullish, I'd "sell at known resistance," or not even be long in the first place, but the longer-term trend is bullish, and if GIGM can take out that purple trendline and remain above it, 14.88 will be back IN PLAY.
The Bulls have established a little short-term base over the past six sessions, from which they can begin to attack all of that resistance. They need to do that almost immediately, and not dig themselves deeper into this hole, or it might become a "Hell Hole."
>:D >:D >:D
I'll post the intraday chart next, to illustrate what I mean about the short-term base.
In the last six sessions after the infamous BULL WIMP at the purple trendline... :P
...the Bulls have put in a Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders bottom. Although I'm never a stickler about volume being "textbook perfect," it looks pretty "textbook."
1. The volume is heaviest in the Left Shoulder (lots of selling after the Bulls wimped at 9.974, on October 24).
2. The volume is less on the tank to 9.09 (The Head)
3. The volume dries up a bit in the Right Shoulder.
That looks fine.
It's only bullish if The Bulls can take out the 9.99 - 9.98 neckline, and remain above it. If they can, a short-term target of 10.87 will be IN PLAY.
Math:
9.98 - Neckline (I take the more conservative of the 9.99 and 9.98)
9.09 - Low of the Head
9.98 - 9.09 = 0.89 Points added to 9.98 = Target: 10.87
The May-September Symmetrical Triangle target of 14.88 also will be back IN PLAY.
I'm long from 9.53. If The Bulls wimp on me again , and allow the 9.60 low of this Right Shouder to get taken down, I'll sell for a fractional gain.
And, I'll probably say, "Curses!" >:D :D >:D
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 02, 2006, 02:39:35 AM
I'm long from 9.53. If The Bulls wimp on me again , and allow the 9.60 low of this Right Shouder to get taken down, I'll sell for a fractional gain.
And, I'll probably say, "Curses!" >:D :D >:D
Well-ll...the Bulls are showing signs of wimping on me again.
The neckline is
9.99-9.98. The Top of the May-September Symmetrical Triangle (purple trendline on chart above) comes in today at
9.92654. This morning's high:
9.94 ...
...then, instead of banging through that resistance, the Bulls gave it up, and slid all the way back near the low of the day.
Yeesh! :'(
Pain in the #$%# :(
This Right Shoulder of the "possible" Inverse H&S also is getting too long in the tooth. It shouldn't be as wide as the Left Shoulder.
Bottom line: I'm raising my stop to 9.69, which would be a new low for today. I'm long from 9.53.
GIGM currently is BID 9.73...ASK 9.74
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 02, 2006, 03:03:08 PM
Bottom line: I'm raising my stop to 9.69, which would be a new low for today. I'm long from 9.53.
GIGM currently is BID 9.73...ASK 9.74
Sold GIGM at 9.72. Gain: 2%
After this morning's THIRD failure to get back above the top of the May-September Symmetrical triangle, and after seeing that GIGM was going to close near the low of the day, I decided not to wait for a print of 9.69, and to sell it.
This still could be fine, but I don't like that show of weakness, with GiGM finding that kind of resistance at what "should have been" support in the first place.
This one has had a gain of +1,019.54% from 07/17/2004 to present. ;)
• GigaMedia Limited Earnings Call scheduled for Thu, Nov 9
Link...... http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/8/74648.html
This online software and gaming site had its stock dumped big-time about Oct. 1 due to legislation in the US to end online gaming, however, GIGM derives all of its revenue from Europe and Asia. It's MahJong game is extremely popular in China...and it last qtr saw 800+% growth, yet the PE is a relatively low 35.
I like it and I bet it doubles.
Support @ $9.73...9.53...9.04...8.10
Resistance @ $10.05...10.91...12.40
Recent CandleStick Analysis
Very Bullish
Nov-03-2006 Homing Pigeon
Technicals
Stochastic is Bullish
Last Price Quote is:
-2.28%below 13-day EMA
-3.62%below 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 1
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Nov 9
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $604.69
P/E Ratio: 35.09
Hi guys, I just did a medium term play-by-play analysis of GIGM on my personal trading log - is a bit long to re-post here, but I thought you might be interested.
You can find it at http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7208.msg76008#msg76008
Cheers,
ST
GIGM finally got through that 9.98-9.99 resistance. Big volume on the print of 10.00.
1. Introduction
GIGM was first introduced to www.3stocksonfire.org by Elite G. I made a few trades on the stock, some of them very rewarding, like that 65% trade (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.msg36555#msg36555) between December 05 and February 06. I'm a long term bull on the company but since I didn't look at it for about 8 months or so I think this is a good time to study it one more time.
By the way, if you're new to 3 Stocks, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register) to receive our free newsletter with 3 daily stock analysis.
2. Profile
GigaMedia Limited (GIGM), through its subsidiaries, engages in the development and license of entertainment software and provision of application services, and ownership and operation of an online games portal. It also provides broadband Internet access services. The company, through its subsidiary, Cambridge Entertainment Software, develops and licenses software solutions and application services, including online entertainment and social networking in the Internet-based entertainment markets. It also offers FunTown game portal, an Asian casual game portal that provides an online MahJong game site, as well as provides services, such as game clubs for players, tournaments related to FunTown's online casual games, and social networking. In addition, the company provides broadband Internet access services to consumer and corporate customers through various technologies and products, including cable modems, leased-lines, virtual private network, and other value-added services. GigaMedia was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27734;image)
Nice IPO price for GIGM, right? Well, not so good for investors, what a collapse. This all history chart tells us nothing about the future price of GIGM, but helps us understand how IPO's, especially after an enormous market rise, can be a dangerous game.
3.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27735;image)
What a marvellous bullish trend that started about a year ago. A five fold advance :o. Now it is important to know if the company is using this big advance phase to distribute shares to the public. That will be an important test. Also I need to check if fundamentals warrant this kind of rise. But, technical analysis, without a doubt, continues to say the way for GIGM is up !
3.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27736;image)
After touching its long term support, actually today GIGM is breaking out of a consolidation phase. The stock seems tired of these levels and will try to push to new highs above $12.5.
This is getting interesting ... let's see what we got in respect to fundamentals.
4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27737;image)
(Sorry, I just love these excel colors ;D). If you consider the scale, and of course you should always consider it, these are pretty stable numbers for the number of shares outstanding. Needless to say, I like that.
4.2. Liquidity
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27740;image)
The balance sheet is getting weaker at GIGM. Debt is now $46 M. It was half of that number a year ago. Also there are $15.9 M in convertible debentures, I believe that is due to the Fun Town acquisition, if I recall correctly.
4.3. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27741;image)
Revenues fell in 2005 because the company was changing its business model, from an ISP to an internet gambling company. Now revenues are rising quarter after quarter, but the estimate for fiscal 2006 is still $72.35 M. The company sold $39 M in the first 6 months, so I think it will probably beat estimates. But, not considering the convertible debentures, the market cap is $524 M.
The revenue multiple is a rich 6.72. Let's see earnings ...
4.4. Profits
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27742;image)
After an erratic period, EPS is definitely getting better. The 2006 estimate is $0.44, and GIGM made $0.22 a share in the first half of the year. With EPS of $0.44, the Price Earnings Ratio is 23.3.
5. General Overview
Q3 earnings are going to be out on November 9, that is next Thursday. The stock is breaking out today, but I wouldn't want to risk holding it for earnings, especially after the short term rise we're seeing now.
My brother lived in China for the past 6 months and he says gambling is completely illegal there. The Chinese government can prohibit access of Chinese citizens to Gigamedia's online gambling sites, or else forbide money transfers from banks to online gambling companies. This is why Macau is flourishing, it's the only place on China where people can gamble (the Chinese love gambling, which is why the government doesn't allow them).
All those ideas that I had about GIGM are cold now because of the Chinese law that I didn't knew all that well. Also, the recent American law against online gambling companies can be copy cat by other countries.
I believe GIGM is overvalued at this point.
6. Trading Plan
I'm not buying or selling GIGM here, but of course I'll keep an eye on it, since it is such a "tradable" stock. Good luck to all holders of GIGM.
I'm making 3 analysis a day, recovering the 3 Stocks on Fire original spirit. If you would like to receive my analysis on your mailbox everyday, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
Quote from: David Randolph on November 06, 2006, 12:56:59 PM
GIGM was first introduced to www.3stocksonfire.org by Michael.
I thought EliteG's first introduced it to the board.... I wonder where's this wizard now ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6757.0
That's what I said, Elite G. Just kidding ;D
We don't know where the man is, he just vanished :-\
Quote from: David Randolph on November 06, 2006, 02:09:58 PM
That's what I said, Elite G. Just kidding ;D
We don't know where the man is, he just vanished :-\
Beem him up Scotty! ;D
Btw, great analysis David! :)
Can you take a look at SIGA and NTRZ if you have the time? Tia!
Joehoe!!!! Go GIGM go.
Still way in the red. Thought I set a stop loss but did not :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[
Amarens
• GigaMedia to Report Third-Quarter 2006 Financial Results on November 9
GigaMedia Limited Earnings Conference Call (Q3 2006)
Scheduled to start Thu, Nov 9, 2006, 8:00 am Eastern
Link...... http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/8/74648.html
Technicals
13-day MA Cross Above 50-day MA
Last Price Quote is:
5.42%above 13-day MA
5.61%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 1
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Nov 9
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $604.69
P/E Ratio: 35.09
GIGM's results were good, but not good enough as the stock is overvalued in my opinion. You can read my full analysis on GIGM on this other thread: GIGM analysis (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7221.0)
(later I'll merge the two threads)
Rather amazing "fractal" response (repeating pattern) to November earnings.
The Fractal Response:
1. At August earnings, GIGM had broken out of a Symmetrical Triangle prior to earnings, but had a "Gap To Crap" Reversal response to good earnings.
Volume was a heavy 4 million shares.
2. At November earnings, GIGM had broken out of a Symmetical Triangle (more like a Descending Triangle, the lows are so close, at 9.05 and 9.09) prior to earnings, then also had a "Gap to Crap" Reversal response to good earnings.
Volume was a heay 8 million shares.
After The "Gap To Crap" Reversal:
1. The August earnings "Gap To Crap" Reversal candle didn't break back below the Symmetrical Triangle breakout, then GIGM bottomed two days later.
2. The November earnings "Gap To Crap" Reversal candle didn't break back below the BIG Symmetrical Triangle (purple trendline), nor did it break back below the Symmetrical Triangle/Descending Triangle breakout (blue down trendline).
NOTE: I "moved the chains" connecting Blue #1 and Blue #3, the down trendline coming off the 12.55 high, so that the October 23 candle wouldn't have its head cut off by the trendline.
The purple trendline from the May-September Symmetrical Triangle breakout comes in today at "about" 9.89. I didn't calculate it exactly.
The blue down trendline comes in today at exactly 9.93178.
We'll see if the "fractal" behavior continues to repeat, by GIGM holding above those breakouts.
Somewhat surprisingly, despite how nasty yesterday's "Gap To Crap" Reversal candle was, 14.88 still is IN PLAY, as long as GIGM trades above the purple trendline.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 10, 2006, 06:46:35 AM
The purple trendline from the May-September Symmetrical Triangle breakout comes in today at "about" 9.89. I didn't calculate it exactly.
The blue down trendline comes in today at exactly 9.93178.
We'll see if the "fractal" behavior continues to repeat, by GIGM holding above those breakouts.
Bought GIGM at 9.91, in the middle of that support. The low so far is the
9.89 support.
I wasn't expecting much more out of GIGM today, than a bang off DOUBLE support at 9.89-9.93, then, hopefully, a Bullish Hammer near yesterday's 10.13 close.
I'm not only pleasantly surprised by this morning's action, I'm stunned to see:
1. A "spike" bottom at DOUBLE support.
2. A rally back to the early high at 10.20, then an upside takeout of 10.20.
3. A quick rally to next resistance at 10.39.
4. A takeout of 10.39, to 10.47 a little after 10 AM.
5. A takeout of that 10.47 high just now...
For a stock that "should be" acting bullish, it is today! ;D
I "thought" that I had caught a low on October 24 when we first tested the top of the May-September Ascending Triangle, but I hadn't, and traded it twice for a very small gain. :P
Grumble...grumble...grumble... :-\ :-\ :-\
The jury still is out, but this sure is looking like a successful re-test of DOUBLE pattern support.
In case it isn't a low, though, I'm going to sell some today, and put my stop on the remainder below this morning's low, which they're now showing as 4.88, to lock in a small gain on the the entire trade.
Basis the 5-Minute chart, we're working on a DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S pattern.
Pattern #1 - The neckline is 10.39 and 10.39. That broke out, and put Target: 10.90 IN PLAY, as long as GIGM trades above 10.39. Below that, like on this chart, the target goes ON HOLDl.
Pattern #2 - The neckline is 10.525 and this morning's high of 10.50. A breakout puts a Target of 11.12 IN PLAY.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 10, 2006, 11:14:28 AM
In case it isn't a low, though, I'm going to sell some today, and put my stop on the remainder below this morning's low, which they're now showing as 4.88, to lock in a small gain on the the entire trade.
The low of the Left Shoulder of Pattern #2 is
10.25. This morning's reaction low off the second data point on the 10.39 neckline, also is
10.25. That's the bottom of the Right Shoulder of Pattern #1, as well.
I'll sell 25% of the position on a print of 10.24, which would severely weaken the case for the DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S patterns.
Apologies for the "Chicken Scratch" writing on the chart. I'm typing too much today.
Okay, there's a technical breakout of the DOUBLE Inverse H&S patterns (see last chart), as well as a print above the 10.525 high of the larger pattern. Both targets are IN PLAY as long as GIGM trades above 10.50 for the larger pattern, and above 10.39 for the smaller pattern.
The low of the Right Shoulder in the larger pattern is 10.34, so I'll sell 25% of my position on a print of 10.33, instead of the 10.24, as previously posted.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 10, 2006, 12:17:55 PM
The low of the Right Shoulder in the larger pattern is 10.34, so I'll sell 25% of my position on a print of 10.33, instead of the 10.24, as previously posted.
I almost got nicked on the dip to
10.35. Whew! :D
We now have a "possible" H&S Top on the 5-Minute! :o
The neckline is 10.34 and 10.35. The Shoulders are 10.52 which, ironically, was where the Bulish Inverse H&S breakout occurred.
GIGM is messing with my head here. :D
We need to take out 10.52 to the UPSIDE.
Given the Bearish H&S Top possibility, I'll sell 50% on a print of 10.33.
GIGM currently is BID 10.51...10.52.
You know, this is looking like THREE Bullish Inverse H&S patterns. I think I'm becoming delirious after staring at this thing all day.
??? ::) :D
The patterns broke out and went to 10.64, pulled back to 10.35, then looked like it was a H&S Top (last post), but 10.52 got taken out to the upside, and it now looks like an Ascending Triangle off the 10.35 low.
This is going to be real disappointing if 10.34-10.35 support gets taken down. >:(
I'll think positively. :D ;D
Yesterday's nasty Volume Reversal candle inclines me to sell some, but unless 10.33 gets printed before the close, I'm not selling 25% today, as planned.
This chart (same as above) looks bullish, and the spike low this morning was off DOUBLE support, basis the daily chart.
I'll hold. I'll sell 25% on Monday if 10.33 gets printed.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 10, 2006, 03:45:09 PM
unless 10.33 gets printed before the close, I'm not selling 25% today, as planned.
Jeepers! They printed
10.34 on me, within seconds after that post! :o
I had my hand on the "Sell Buzzer," and felt
tha-at bullet fly right past my ear.
I'm still 100% long. Whew! :D ;D
The pattern since 1:00PM on the 1-Minute chart is a W-Bottom. There are SIX highs in the middle of it, at 10.57, so a print on Monday of 10.58 will be a breakout of another Bullish pattern. Target: 10.81 would be IN PLAY.
EDIT: The target would be 10.79 IN PLAY. Sorry. Long-g-g day. :D
Very important information about the Internet and Internet Gambing:
http://www.youtube.com/v/EQxI4bI09Nc
We don't have much longer 'till it all comes crashing down ;D
Good times...Jody
Exact, the problem with the tubes ;)
and these are the people running the country ! idiots! ::)
max
Frederick, Jody and Maxi,
I didn't see anything on Frederick's link, other than a sign up for something. Could one of you give me a thumbnail summary. Something like:
"You're totally screwed in your long position, Melf" would do. :D >:D
TIA
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 11, 2006, 02:49:08 PM
Frederick, Jody and Maxi,
I didn't see anything on Frederick's link, other than a sign up for something. Could one of you give me a thumbnail summary. Something like:
"You're totally screwed in your long position, Melf" would do. :D >:D
TIA
Hi Melf,
You must have something blocking your browser, like some firewall software, etc... you can see that video here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQxI4bI09Nc&eurl=
regards, ;)
Quote from: Ramsburg on November 12, 2006, 12:55:05 AM
You must have something blocking your browser, like some firewall software, etc...
Frederick,
Yeah, I got this message at your link:
"Hello, you either have JavaScript turned off or an old version of Macromedia's Flash Player. Get the latest flash player."
I don't know what those things are, so I'm leaving it alone. I'm dangerous to myself and others if I try to do anything with a computer, other than "click." :D
Maxi explained to me what the message was. Thanks for your help, guys. Applauds.
If it weren't for that UGLY "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal candle on earnings, the judges would score GIGM a Perfect 10 for Technical Merit. No question, the scores have to be marked down for that.
As the chart stands...
Scores for Technical Merit...
:D ...8.0...8.5...9.0...8.0...8.5...8.5... :D
Here's why: Other than that Big Volume Reversal Candle, this is a beautiful chart!
After the October 4 Smackdown, in sympathy with the sector:
1. Bearish Rising Wedge Rally to Resistance - BEARISH
2. RSI Across The Board Sell Signal, at 11.00 - BEARISH
3. Broke back below the top of the May-September Ascending Triangle - BEARISH
Then what?
1. Put in a Double Bottom, at 9.09. - Possibly BULLISH
2. Formed a Bullish Inverse H&S (Blue Circles), best seen on an intraday chart. Neckline at 9.98-9.99, which also was the top of the Ascending Triangle resistance. Possibly BULLISH, on a breakout.
3. Broke out of the Bullish Inverse H&S pattern on November 6, putting 10.89 IN PLAY. BULLISH
4. Broke out of the (blue) Symmetical Triangle (Descending Triangle, if you will), also on November 6, so it was a DOUBLE breakout. BULLISH
5. November 7, the 10.89 target MADE. BULLISH
6. November 10, after the Big "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal, the early morning "spike" low was right at DOUBLE pattern support. TRIPLE pattern support, if we count the neckline of the "mini" Bullish Inverse H&S of October 25 - November 3. BULLISH
7. Nice intraday patterns on Friday, that I posted. Okay, Scotsman, I "over-posted." :D Potentially BULLISH
8. The 8-Day Tenkan sen (solid green line) made a Bullish Cross above the 22-day Kijun sen (solid red line) BULLISH
9. The 8-Day Kijun-sen is at
10.62. Friday's high at
10.62 tagged it, and GIGM held most of the day's gains. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart is "in gear," and GIGM is poised to rally above it. Possibly BULLISH
10. GIGM not only is above the May-September Ascending Triangle, it tagged it at Friday's "spike" low and bounced, confirming it as support this time (unlike the October 24 failure), so 14.88 still is IN PLAY. BULLISH
Other than that Big Volume Reversal Candle at earnings, which could end up being the stock's undoing, I realize, GIGM would score Perfect 10s on Technical Merit for its performance since the November 6 breakout.
My risk from my 9.91 entry, to find out if GIGM
really is this BULLISH, is about break even on the trade, unless it gaps down on me.
I will sell 25% of the position if I get a print of 10.33, as explained on Friday, which will give me a 4.3% gain on that portion. On the remaining 75%, I'll give it a few pennies below Friday's 9.88 low for some "wiggle room" in case it needs a quick DOUBLE re-test of trendline support because of that Big "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal Candle (it's got to work that off, somehow), but I can't justify staying in it much below the mid-9.80s, so I'll sell the remaining 75% for a 1% loss, or a bit less than that. Result would be a little better than break even.
The work was done, below that 9.98-9.99 neckline of the "mini" Inverse H&S pattern. I won't sit through a lot of sloppiness, going back down there much into the 9.80s, when that structural work already has been completed.
I also will "sell into strength" some portion of the postion if we get the targets IN PLAY between 10.79-11.12. Although the chart looks very BULLISH, I expect some backing and filling, to work off that "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal candle.
On March 23, 2006, GIGM had a Big "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal, on 8 million shares, roughly the same volume as Thursday's candle.
The next day, GIGM found support at the 5.43 gap, similar to GIGM finding DOUBLE pattern support on Friday, November 10. The low of March 24 was 5.44.
Two days later, GIGM took out the 6.36 high of the "Gap To Crap" candle, and went on to score a high of 10.79, before the break of the Bearish Rising Wedge after May earnings.
That's pretty unusal to see a Big "Gap To Crap' Volume Reversal candle get taken out to the upside like that, and especially so quickly, but like GIGM in the current time-frame, "the chart work was done," and an upside target was IN PLAY.
That doesn't mean, of course, that history will repeat here, or repeat exactly, but I wouldn't mind if it rhymed a little. :D
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 12, 2006, 06:12:28 AM
I will sell 25% of the position if I get a print of 10.33, as explained on Friday, which will give me a 4.3% gain on that portion.
Sold 25% of the position at 10.33. Gain: 4.3%
Quote
On the remaining 75%, I'll give it a few pennies below Friday's 9.88 low for some "wiggle room" in case it needs a quick DOUBLE re-test of trendline support because of that Big "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal Candle (it's got to work that off, somehow), but I can't justify staying in it much below the mid-9.80s, so I'll sell the remaining 75% for a 1% loss, or a bit less than that. Result would be a little better than break even.
That plan remains the same.
Quote
I also will "sell into strength" some portion of the postion if we get the targets IN PLAY between 10.79-11.12.
I'll look to sell another 25% in the target area, if I get it, and hold the remaining 50%.
Quote
Applauds on trading the plan melf ;)
Quote from: ScottishTrader on November 13, 2006, 03:53:35 PM
Applauds on trading the plan melf ;)
Thank you, Scotsman. I appreciate that. ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 10, 2006, 11:51:42 AM
The low of the Left Shoulder of Pattern #2 is 10.25. This morning's reaction low off the second data point on the 10.39 neckline, also is 10.25. That's the bottom of the Right Shoulder of Pattern #1, as well.
I'll sell 25% of the position on a print of 10.24, which would severely weaken the case for the DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S patterns
As it turns out, I would have been better off (so far...), leaving the stop at a print of
10.24.But, I needed to sell the 10.33 in order to structure the trade properly, so that I come out of it at least with some "lunch money."
;)
We'll see how this plays out. Fascinating trade. I feel like I'm riding one of those "Rhinestone Cowboy" broncos that were so popular in neighborhood saloons awhile back.
While my
10.34 got busted today, the
10.25 held up. Today's low was
10.26. :D ;D
On the upside, the THREE Bullish Targets begin at
10.79. Today's high was
10.76. Curses! >:D
I "coulda" had the alternative, and sold the 25% of the position "into strength," which would have been nice.
All-lllmost got it...but, I didn't. >:( >:D
Excluding a nasty gap down, below my stop in the low 9.80s, I've accomplished structuring the trade so that I end up with a little better than break even, so that's fine.
We worked off some "overhang" today from that AWFUL "Gap To Crap" Reversal candle, so we'll see what develops. It isn't going to cost me anything (excluding a gap down) to find out if GIGM really is as bullish as the chart looks (post at the bottom of the last page).
Thanks, again, buddy! ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 13, 2006, 02:46:42 PM
Sold 25% of the position at 10.33. Gain: 4.3%
Sold remaining 75% of GIGM at 10.00. Gain: 0.9%. Gain on the trade: 1.8%
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 27, 2006, 04:12:53 PM
Sold remaining 75% of GIGM at 10.00. Gain: 0.9%. Gain on the trade: 1.8%
I've had better trades in GIGM, but that pitiful 1.8% gain looks
mighty good this morning.
There was a chance of the 9.99-9.98 neckline (purple line) being support when I sold, but the overriding factor in my decision to sell was the break of the Ascending Triangle (pattern in green).
I made a mistake, not selling earlier that day (November 27) when the Ascending Triangle pattern broke decisively below the "last low" of the pattern, which was 10.20. I should have sold at 10.19. That would have given me another 2% on the trade.
But, I was making the same old mistake, "hoping," that 9.99 - 9.98 would be support, when the evidence was telling me that an Ascending Triangle just broke to the downside, putting a target of 9.63 IN PLAY.
Selling for that 1.8% gain wasn't so hot, but at yesterday's close, my position would be down 10.6%, which would have been an even bigger mistake.
"Admit your mistakes as quickly as possible, and get outta there." :P
Quote from: David Randolph on November 09, 2006, 08:13:41 PM
GIGM's results were good, but not good enough as the stock is overvalued in my opinion. You can read my full analysis on GIGM on this other thread: GIGM analysis (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7221.0)
(later I'll merge the two threads)
David, your analysis has been merged...... ;)
It's located at page 19 of this thread.
Shorting GIGM, keeps getting pushed down and rejected by the 9EMA.
Optimal area to cover would be between 6.5 and 7, the target of the H&S Top breakdown.
Just sold short at 9.65 guys, wish me luck.
Covered at 9.63 before the close, wasn't confortable with today's action.
I was actually expecting more weakness as the day developed.
Will try again again tomorrow.
too early bocasva:
GigaMedia's Leading Game Portal FunTown Partners with Yahoo! Taiwan
Friday December 15, 11:52 am ET
Extends Wretch Partnership to Yahoo! Taiwan
TAIPEI, Taiwan, Dec. 15 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) announced today that its leading casual games portal FunTown has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Yahoo! Taiwan Inc. ("Yahoo! Taiwan") designed to broaden and enrich the entertainment and community offerings of both portals.
ADVERTISEMENT
The strategic cooperation adds Yahoo!'s leading online entertainment and community offerings to FunTown's world number one MahJong and other online casual game offerings. The cooperation includes co-marketing of FunTown's games on key Yahoo! Taiwan properties and revenue sharing on resulting sales.
The strategic cooperation with Yahoo! Taiwan follows the proposed acquisition by Yahoo! Taiwan of GigaMedia's strategic partner Wretch, which acquisition is expected to close in early 2007. Wretch is Taiwan's top community "blog" site. As part of this transaction, GigaMedia has agreed to cancel its option to purchase equity interest in Wretch in exchange for the larger strategic cooperation with Yahoo! Taiwan and a cash payment.
Cooperation with Wretch will continue under the new agreement with Yahoo! Taiwan and expand to include strategic cooperation with Yahoo! Taiwan. Direct links to a co-branded FunTown and Yahoo Taiwan! Web site will be prominently featured throughout Wretch, and will be placed on Yahoo! Taiwan's online game and messenger homepages with banner advertisement rights designed to drive users to the co-branded site. Members of Yahoo! Taiwan will also be able to use their login and password to directly access FunTown's games on the co-branded site.
additionally info:
GigaMedia to be sales agent for on-line game Hellgate: London
Press release, December 15; Adam Hwang, DigiTimes.com [Friday 15 December 2006]
NASDAQ-listed GigaMedia, a Taiwan provider of broadband Internet-based value-added services and contents, on December 14 announced it won the operating franchise for the upcoming Hellgate: London on-line RPG (role-playing game) developed by US-based Flagship Studios. Won for US$9 million, the operating franchise covers Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao, GigaMedia said.
Along with distributor of on-line games Cybergate, GigaMedia plans to establish US-based joint venture Dragongate Entertainment to operate the game in the three markets. The joint venture will later establish a branch in Taiwan. Before that, the game will be operated by GigaMedia's subsidiary FunTown, GigaMedia noted. FunTown is a leading producer and operator of on-line games in Taiwan.
Hellgate: London is expected to be launched in mid-2007, and it is not yet determined whether the operation will be free or paid on a monthly basis, according to FunTown. In Taiwan, the game is expected to attract more than 300,000 members and over 100,000 concurrent players in first three months, FunTown indicated.
http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/NewsSearch.asp?DocID=00000000000000000000000000006686&query=GIGAMEDIA
GIGM gapping up PM today on this news:
GigaMedia Licenses Cash-Wager MahJong to Online Entertainment Leader Carmen Media Group
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061222/hkf003.html?.v=36 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061222/hkf003.html?.v=36)
Thy have released a lot of solid PRs in the week or so, and the price has still struggled. Lets see if this one proveds the oomph to get GIGM over its hump. Currently 10.49 PM, up 5.8%. Todays key resistance should be between 10.65 and 10.75. Oh and as always, $11 - a move above here would be a very nice christmas present ;D
This chart has so many patterns, it's a good candidate for Morphology 101 class. :D
A print of 10.37 today would be a technical breakout of the Falling Wedge (pattern in blue)
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 09:04:28 AM
A print of 10.37 today would be a technical breakout of the Falling Wedge (pattern in blue)
Bought GIGM at 10.07. There's the technical breakout, at 10.37.
ROTH CAPITAL INITIATES COVERAGE WITH BUY, $15 TARGET
S&P Marketscope - January 17, 2007 10:15 AM ET
Analyst Todd Eilers believes co. poised to deliver above-average revenue, EPS growth for next several years driven by further penetration of European I-gaming markets, increased casual game operations in Asia, expansion of its real-money, I-gaming platform into Asian markets... Notes while rest of I-gaming industry scrambling to survive after passage of Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act, subsequent loss of US customers, expects GIGM to continue to deliver record results as a result of never having any exposure to US market... Sees $0.33 '06 EPS, $0.53 '07.
again positive news:
GigaMedia Acquires Majority Ownership of Leading Online Sports Game Operator in China
Jan 18, 2007 08:05:00 (ET)
SHANGHAI, China. Jan 18, 2007 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- GigaMedia Limited (''GigaMedia'' or the ''Company'') (GIGM, Trade ) announced today it has entered into agreements to acquire majority ownership of T2CN Holding Limited (''T2CN''), a leading online sports and casual game operator in China.
This highly strategic acquisition establishes GigaMedia as a leader in one of the world's largest and fastest growing online game markets.
''T2CN is the number one online sports game portal in China, operating the market's most successful online sports game ever,'' stated GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. ''T2CN provides GigaMedia with a tremendous platform in one of the most important markets in the world. We are very excited.''
T2CN has distinguished itself as China's leading online casual sports game company and operates FreeStyle, the most popular online sports game ever in China. Led by a management team with a strong track record in China's online game industry, T2CN has developed close marketing partnerships with premiere international brands including Coca-Cola, Nike and Nokia.
The T2CN acquisition is the latest step in GigaMedia's plan to build a dominant online entertainment platform in Asia and follows GigaMedia's recent strategic investment in Infocomm Asia Holdings, a Southeast Asian online game leader based in Singapore.
''We are building leading positions in online game markets across Asia - driving growth and creating synergies in sourcing, marketing and operations,'' explained GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. ''No other company has this kind of reach in Asia.''
Under the terms of the transaction announced today, GigaMedia will purchase up to 18.3 million shares of T2CN -- equivalent to 40.3 percent of the outstanding common shares of T2CN -- for a total consideration of US$22.9 million, subject to adjustment based upon T2CN financial performance in the first half of 2007.
Pursuant to GigaMedia's May 2006 initial investment into T2CN, GigaMedia also holds (a) convertible preferred shares of T2CN which may be converted into an additional 15 million common shares of T2CN; and (b) an option to purchase an additional 4.3 million common shares of T2CN -- with both (a) and (b) exercisable beginning in May 2007.
Upon conversion of all preferred shares and exercise of this option, GigaMedia's ownership stake in T2CN will be approximately 51.9 percent.
GigaMedia expects initially to equity account the acquisition of T2CN until such time as its common share ownership exceeds 50 percent.
The transaction is expected to be accretive to GigaMedia's 2007 results.
GigaMedia will make payment in two tranches: approximately half at closing (expected to be in February 2007) and the remaining portion expected in August 2007. Payment consideration will include a small component of approximately 200,000 GigaMedia shares. These shares will be newly issued and contain a one-year restriction on transfer.
The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions. Management expects the transaction to close in February.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 09:45:39 AM
Bought GIGM at 10.07. There's the technical breakout, at 10.37.
GIGM sure doesn't score any style points for this sloppy breakout. :P
It closed at 10.32 that day, back below the pattern. :(
Then it went down to 10.10, and closed inside the pattern again. ::)
Then it did a "Gap To Crap," at 10.79, and came back to the pattern
again. ::)
Yesterday was the first decent day since the breakout.
The subject line was "Joining The Party." I thought a change might help. :D
GIGM is bringing it home over $11, for the first time since the earnings "Mega Gap To Crap" on 8 million shares, on November 9.
We still have some overhang from that candle, no doubt, the high of which was 11.64, but we've got a nice 4-month pattern breakout working in our favor, so hopefully, we're on our way higher toward the targets IN PLAY, into February earnings. I have to check the date.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 24, 2007, 06:00:23 AM
The subject line was "Joining The Party." I thought a change might help. :D
I'm trying another subject change. I like how that one worked out. :D
MACD and Volume.......
MACD positive. Appears to have bottomed in December.
Nice Cup shape forming... ;)
Target $13, stop $9.70. Back above the 50-day.
52wk Range: 3.90 - 12.55
Volume: 2,235,848
Avg Vol (3m): 1,196,510
Market Cap: 604.67M
EPS (ttm): 0.40
Technicals
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
11.78%above 13-day MA
16.87%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 3
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $604.67
P/E Ratio: 35.09
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
• GigaMedia to buy majority holding in Chinese sports game firm
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 24, 2007, 03:59:33 PM
GIGM is bringing it home over $11, for the first time since the earnings "Mega Gap To Crap" on 8 million shares, on November 9.
We still have some overhang from that candle, no doubt, the high of which was 11.64, but we've got a nice 4-month pattern breakout working in our favor
GIGM finally took out and closed above that
11.64 high, on decent volume: 2.2 million shares.
Completely missed this run. I think the ugly rally thrgouh the 10s put me off, but now GIGM is looking very strong once again. Its real hard for me to buy at these levels, even though this looks to me like the next major leg up for GIGM. The 1 year chart shows this nicely. Maybe I should just accept I missed the best entry and take on the added risk.
This article talks about what we have already known for a long time, that GIGM has a big lead in one of the largest potential gaming markets in the world, but they're right, they won't have exclusive reign over this market for long as other players start to come in:
http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/070130/595_id.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/070130/595_id.html?.v=1)
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 09:45:39 AM
Bought GIGM at 10.07.
Sold ½ my position of GIGM at
12.55. Gain: 24.6%
Hold the other ½ position long.
The Bullish Falling Wedge target of
12.55 MADE.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on February 01, 2007, 09:03:47 AM
Completely missed this run. I think the ugly rally thrgouh the 10s put me off, but now GIGM is looking very strong once again. Its real hard for me to buy at these levels, even though this looks to me like the next major leg up for GIGM.
Scotsman,
In an uptrend like this, often there are nice little bullish continuation breakouts, like the two in this chart in GIGM, and likethe Bull Flag breakout yesterday in XING.
Those are nice entries, and you can put your stop right under them.
Why You Shouldn't Sell.......
By Brian Richards and Tim Hanson
"You know less than you think you do."
That's a conclusion from behavioral economist James Montier. What's he talking about? That whether you know it or not, you're making big mistakes with your money. And that over time, they will cost you.
Dearly.
Stock madness
Think we're exaggerating? Consider: Performance-chasing in mutual funds has gotten so bad that Morningstar has created an "investor returns" category to account for the problem of investors buying funds when they're hot and selling when they're not. The difference between fund returns and investor returns can be startling -- as much as 20 percentage points.
Abby normal?
Even if you're not into funds, your emotions are costing you money. Ever heard of loss aversion? It's the practice of holding onto losers in the hopes they'll turn.
In another study, Professor Terrance Odean found that while investors held losing stocks for a median of 124 days, they held winning stocks for just 102 days. Moreover, investors were 1.7 times as likely to sell their winner.
In other words, investors are cutting winners off early and letting losers ride. That's the antithesis of a successful investment formula.
Alas, this madness can be explained. As master fund manager Ron Muhlenkamp puts it, "For most people 'The Game of the Stock Market' is a distraction which prevents them from making money in 'The Business of Investing.'"
That's why you only hear your buddies talk about their winners at cocktail parties. In the "The Game of the Stock Market," losers don't exist. But in "The Business of Investing," they're the reason why those same buddies haven't yet retired.
Small consolation: The pros aren't immune
Professional investors suffer from loss aversion, too, according to research from Andrea Frazzini. Pros were 1.2 times as likely to sell a winning stock rather than a losing stock. While not quite as bad as the 1.7 of the average Joe, these guys and gals supposedly earn their paychecks staying calm, cool, and collected!
So what's the solution? Easy. Simply enroll in one of those color-coded day-trading workshops coming soon to an airport Sheraton near you.
Not really.
The actual solution is so simple that you won't believe it when we tell you. So we're not going to tell you -- at least, not yet.
Let's lead with an example
In January 2003, 810 stocks rose more than 10%. Since then, 450 of them -- or 56% -- have continued to beat the market. A whopping 384, including Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO), Finisar (Nasdaq: FNSR), Dynegy (NYSE: DYN), Sepracor (Nasdaq: SEPR), and ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) have more than doubled. And 36, including Deckers Outdoor (Nasdaq: DECK) and GigaMedia (Nasdaq: GIGM), are up an additional 1,000% or more.
You'd sure be shooting yourself today if you'd sold one of those to preserve a 10% gain.
The lesson? Quick trigger fingers aren't rewarded. While any stock may give back gains, the big bucks are made by finding winners like Deckers or GigaMedia early on and letting them ride.
Be brash. Be boring.
So what's the solution? Buy to hold. Of course, be sure to buy to hold the types of stocks that can be bought to hold. Stocks that are:
1. Reasonably priced.
2. Well-managed.
3. Poised to grow.
you are still holding setravis?
new 52 week high >:D
(sold too early @ 12.96 a few days before... :'( )
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 09:45:39 AM
Bought GIGM at 10.07.
Sold ½ my position of GIGM at 12.55. Gain: 24.6%
Hold the other ½ position long.
Sold my remaining ½ position in GIGM for 12.69. Gain: 26%.
I've made several analysis on GIGM but none come up as evidently saying GIGM is a long term buy as the one I did yesterday:
<object width="500" height="450"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/NbcEMk2jAbg"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/NbcEMk2jAbg" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="500" height="450"></embed></object>
I gave it a 9 out of 10 and an estimated long term return of 26% a year. This is because GIGM's business is a high margin business, and the way revenues are growing ... not to mention the potential of their Chinese games that still aren't producing revenues. Even my brother plays Mahjong now (his girlfriend is Chinese).
Moreover, GIGM's business is, in my view, independent of the economic cycle, which adds a feel of safety to the investment.
On Tuesday there were news out that weren't reflected on my analysis (my fundamental service wasn't updated with the latest news), showing revenues and EPS for full year 2006 were in fact better than expected and considered in my analysis:
• GigaMedia 2006 Net Profit up 386% to US$31 Million (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070313/hktu003.html?.v=47)
PR Newswire (Tue, Mar 13)
Net profit margin for the 4th quarter was an incredible 32.9% (on my long term estimate I'm considering just 20% for net profit margin).
I have no doubts GIGM is a spectacular long term holding and I want it on the Main for the very long term. What I'll do is just compare actual results with my estimates, and if on average the company keeps on track, I'll continue holding it over the years.
Trading Plan:
Buy GIGM, 6.66% of capital as always.
GIGM again ;D :D
fyi:
GigaMedia "buy," target price raised
Thursday, March 15, 2007 10:41:55 PM ET
Roth Capital
NEW YORK, March 15 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Roth Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on GigaMedia (ticker: GIGM). The target price has been raised from $15 to $17.
also check the GIGM link from our free board:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.390
cheers
Oliver
David,
Very excited to see GIGM added to the main..
As ive mentioned before..this is one of my largest holding & am as excited about the long term prospects as you are..
Nick
Quote from: la-onda on March 15, 2007, 08:58:54 AM
GIGM again ;D :D
fyi:
GigaMedia "buy," target price raised
Thursday, March 15, 2007 10:41:55 PM ET
Roth Capital
NEW YORK, March 15 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Roth Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on GigaMedia (ticker: GIGM). The target price has been raised from $15 to $17.
also check the GIGM link from our free board:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.390
cheers
Oliver
Hi La-onda, as usually when there's an upgrade, stock's go down on that day :)
Quote from: nicknite20 on March 15, 2007, 09:21:37 AM
David,
Very excited to see GIGM added to the main..
As ive mentioned before..this is one of my largest holding & am as excited about the long term prospects as you are..
Nick
Thanks for your message Nick, we'll be able to exchange information about GIGM on this thread.
There's some information on this Fool's article:
GigaMedia's Strong Hand (http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/03/13/gigamedias-strong-hand.aspx?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y&bounce=y)
Revenues from continuing operations rose 113% in 2006 from a year ago and our long term estimate looks for just 30% average annual revenue growth for the next 10 years.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
www.3stocksonfire.org has been experiencing technical problems, so I need to do these updates fast to send the daily newsletter.
Nothing new happened on GIGM at Friday's session, I'll keep holding the stock.
What is interesting about this GIGM investment is that I'm only calling for 30% average annual revenue growth for the next 10 year period, but the company is growing a lot faster than that:
«Consolidated revenues from continuing operations climbed 155 percent to US$30.1 million from US$11.8 million in 2005 and grew by 23 percent from the previous quarter.»
«"GigaMedia's net profit grew over four times in 2006, a great year by any standard," stated Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. "And our record fourth- quarter operating results and recent strategic developments point to an even stronger 2007."»
«"Our excellent financial results in 2006 tell only half the story: perhaps more important, 2006 was a year of key strategic accomplishments," stated CEO Arthur Wang. "We now have built by organic investment a leading pan-European online entertainment brand -- and by acquisition, an enormous pan-Asian online game platform with over 50 million registered users."
"We are seeing but the early returns from our investments and strategic steps to build a dominant online entertainment business," explained CEO Arthur Wang. "As such, we are looking to deliver tremendous shareholder value in 2007 and beyond."»
I'll keep holding GIGM.
Sold 1/2 today thanks David
Quote from: yukiii on March 20, 2007, 06:31:54 PM
Sold 1/2 today thanks David
You're welcome yukiii :)
GIGM is growing a lot faster that my estimate, at least for now. I just need 30% average annual revenue growth and revenues from continuing operations grew 155% in 2006, and 23% from Q3 to Q4 2006 :o
On my video analysis I said I was expecting about 17% net profit margin for 2007 and 20% over the long term, but the company already had a net profit margin of 32.89% in Q4 :o
Perhaps, since yukiii sold half of his position, GIGM will have a short term pullback, I don't know about that, but fundamentals tell me GIGM only has one way to go: up, up and away !
GIGM is trouncing my expectations by a wide margin, as revenue growth is accelerating. That is expanding net profit margin from my expectation of 17% to more than 32%. This substantially improves my long term estimates for GIGM, which were awesome already.
Therefore I've decided to buy GIGM also for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), as I believe it is one of the two stocks with the most potential in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
The chart says there can be a pullback as the stock closed just a bit below its 7 year high of $13.79, but that's not an input in my decision making process. I'm on the path to long term investing, using long term analytical tools.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
When something like the following starts getting traction:
«The sequential quarterly operating margin improvement was driven by a sharp pick-up and significant margin expansion in the Asian online games business in the fourth quarter.»
... we know the best is yet to come.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
Do we still have the daily discussion session today? I can't find it. ???
Quote from: sfhappyfish88 on March 23, 2007, 11:09:05 AM
Do we still have the daily discussion session today? I can't find it. ???
Sorry sfhappyfish88, I wasn't able to start a new thread on Friday in the Stock Talking Board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=38.0), but there was one open.
As for GIGM, the stock was able to close at a new 7 year high of $13.95, above the "important" technical resistance of $13.79, which probably will now act as support (the all time high was $91 in 2000).
We're not the only ones loving GIGM, also the Fool's community enjoys it a lot, with a 40% average annual EPS growth estimate for the next 5 years: 5 More Top Growth Stocks (http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/03/20/5-more-top-growth-stocks.aspx?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y)
As for analysts in general, look how they have been raising estimates:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=34796;image)
Now they're estimating $0.61 for the full year 2007, but the company already made $0.51 in 2006 and $0.17 EPS for the fourth quarter. If it just maintains the $0.17 rhythm per quarter, it will make $0.68 for the full year, and everybody, including the company's management, expects strong growth, so clearly those 2007 estimates need to rise some more or the company will easily beat them by a wide margin.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
And the market is responding la-onda, with GIGM closing at a new 7 year high yesterday. The stock keeps looking at recent financial performance and ahead:
«"We are seeing but the early returns from our investments and strategic steps to build a dominant online entertainment business," explained CEO Arthur Wang. "As such, we are looking to deliver tremendous shareholder value in 2007 and beyond."»
I'll keep holding GIGM.
Let's consider the next sentence from the 4th quarter earnings release:
«"GigaMedia's net profit grew over four times in 2006, a great year by any standard," stated Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. "And our record fourth- quarter operating results and recent strategic developments point to an even stronger 2007."»
An even stronger 2007? Does this mean that net profit will grow by more that 4 times in 2007 in comparison to 2006? Not impossible.
GIGM had net income of $30.8 M in 2006. If this number quadruples it will have net income of $123.2 M.
Now, GIGM is a $714 M market cap, so if this happens the forward earnings multiple would then be 5.8. But probably the CEO didn't mean what I'm seeing, did he?
Anyway, no doubt the business is growing by leaps and bounds, I'll keep holding GIGM.
GIGM came down to touch the $13.79 support level, prior resistance. Perhaps it will start moving up again soon, but the short term doesn't bother me much now. As I look to the long term I see a very attractive fundamental position and inevitably a higher stock price for GIGM.
In Q4 GIGM had a net profit margin of 32%. This is one of the fattest I've ever seen. This means that for every $1 in incremental sales, $0.32 go to the bottom line.
I expect great things from GIGM in 2007 and beyond and I'll hold the stock through the ups and downs, as I'm pretty much certain the "ups" will be bigger than the "downs".
GIGM is looking a bit toppy - the recent high of 14.50 made a perfect tag of the top of the long term channel. After buying the positive ER, I sold today on the second bearish engulfing candle for just over an 8% gain on the trade. I'm watching out for a break of the 13.50 level as a potential short setup. Bearish divergences on both MACD and RSI suggest that it could be due for a pullback here, possibly to the 50MA or 12.50 support. Should also see some support at $13 if it does break down.
I applaud David for being resolute in the tough market conditions. As it turns out, it is the most difficult part to learn in the trading business.
Potential H&S top on the 30 minute chart. GIGM has been making lower lows over the last couple of days, and looks at risk of breaking down here. The neckline of the H&S pattern is at 13.58, and a break of this level would put a traget of 12.63 IN PLAY.
One could also argue that it has been forming a falling wedge (continuation) pattern. For this pattern to resolve itself, GIGM needs to break above 13.90, and really 14.00, which could signal the beginning of a next leg up.
I'm agnostic for now, but may look to take a corresponding position depending on which way the stock decides to move.
Maybe this will give it a little kick in the butt?
Zacks PEG Ratio Strategy Highlights: GigaMedia Ltd., The Manitowoc Company, National Oilwell Varco, Incorporated and Spirit AeroSystems HoldingsApr 2, 2007 08:32:15 (ET)
CHICAGO, Apr 02, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- If you like to use a company's P/E ratio to determine its value, then you'll love using the PEG Ratio Profit Track. The PEG Ratio can calculate if a stock is undervalued relative to its expected future growth. Find out which companies offer the greatest value regardless of growth rate to enjoy stellar returns. Four stocks meeting this screen's exclusive criteria are: GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM, Trade ), The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW, Trade ), National Oilwell Varco, Incorporated (NOV, Trade ) and Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR, Trade ). View the entire list of stocks for the PEG Ratio Profit Track at http://at.zacks.com/?id=1837
Here are details about four companies currently identified by the PEG Ratio Profit Track:
GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM, Trade ) offers a PEG ratio of 0.54. The company recently announced fourth-quarter earnings of 17 cents per share, surpassing the consensus estimate by 42%. GIGM noted that its net profit grew over four times in 2006, and its record fourth-quarter operating results and recent strategic developments point to an even stronger 2007.
The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW, Trade ), a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company, sports a PEG ratio of 0.50. The company recently increased its full-year 2007 earnings outlook to a range of $4.20 to $4.30 per share from its previous guidance of $3.85 to $4.00. Wall Street followed suit by increasing one month-ago forecasts of $4.03 per share to the current level of $4.30. In late January, MTW posted fourth-quarter earnings of 69 cents per share, before special items, which eclipsed the consensus estimate by a penny.
National Oilwell Varco, Incorporated (NOV, Trade ), another Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company, will release results for the first quarter in late April. In early February, NOV reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.35 per share, beating the consensus estimate by 29% and outperforming the year-prior period. The company mentioned that each of its three segments reported higher year-over-year sales and profits for the year. NOV's PEG ratio currently stands at 0.52.
Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR, Trade ) released financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2006 in early February. SPR stated that during 2006, it expanded its customer base in the 100 seat plus market through the acquisition of Spirit Europe, won yet to be announced programs with new customers and successfully managed production rate increases on existing programs. Not only does this value stock satisfy the criteria of this Profit Track, but with a PEG ratio of 0.21, it currently offers the lowest PEG ratio under the PEG Profit Track.
Discover all the current stocks currently on the PEG Ratio Profit Track at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1868
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QuoteMaybe this will give it a little kick in the butt?
Yep, nice kick ;)
That PEG Ratio looks cool, I wonder if I shouldn't use it too. Here are two articles explaining how the PEG Ratio works, its advantages and disadvantages:
PEG ratio (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratio)
How The PEG Ratio Can Help Investors (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/analyst/043002.asp)
I believe the answer to the "is this stock undervalued or overvalued?" question needs a much deeper study than the P/E Ratio or the PEG Ratio for that matter. I believe it is a matter of designing reasonable long term estimates, given current fundamental trends, and the share price growth rate one can derive from those long term estimates. This share price growth rate can also be called the projected Return on Investment. As a rule of thumb, if it is more than 16%, the stock is undervalued, if it is less than 8%, it is overvalued.
For GIGM, growth in revenues in 2006 was 113%, and net profit margin was 32%. If this growth rate continues for, say, 3 years, revenues in 2009 will be $908 M and net income will be $291 M.
If we apply a PEG Ratio of 1 to this estimate, lol, GIGM would then be a 113*$291 M = $32.88 B market cap company, or, at current share count terms, a $644 stock :o
But I doubt the market would attach an earnings multiple of 113 to GIGM, it is just too high. But why not 50? It should have 50 (for example, BIDU trades at 54 times earnings), right here, right now, and that would mean a price per share of $29.4, just considering 2006 net income.
Well, we'll just keep monitoring GIGM like we do with all other holdings of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), I'll keep holding the stock.
I remember GIGM from a long time ago, when IBD listed GIGM as one of the best stocks under $5. I almost went all in GIGM (as was my strategy then). I could be retired right now.
Great pick.
Quote from: buddjas1 on April 03, 2007, 10:55:06 AM
I remember GIGM from a long time ago, when IBD listed GIGM as one of the best stocks under $5. I almost went all in GIGM (as was my strategy then). I could be retired right now.
Great pick.
The problem when one goes "all in" is his hands get weaker. I doubt you would hold it through all the ups and downs the stock had (and there were many).
I'm starting to see there's no trick at all in knowing what is the right thing to do. The hard part is to resist all temptations from the Devil (http://mdteague.com/FlaminDevil) and actually do it right over many years.
The problem with spending too much time doing wrong things is time is precious and probably one of the most important factors for being truly successful in the markets.
GIGM shot up 4.43% to a new 7 year high, on volume above average. That PEG Ratio thing probably has been a eye opener for many people. GIGM's fully diluted EPS grew from $0.12 in 2005 to $0.51 in 2006, that's a 325% growth.
According to the "PEG Ratio" basic premise, GIGM should be trading at a PEG ratio of 1, so the Price to Earnings Ratio should be 325, and that would put GIGM at $166 a share ;D
Of course, the theory can't be followed blindly, and it is impossible for the market to value GIGM at 325 times earnings, only if a speculative bubble were to occur, but probably that won't happen for many years.
What is worth a good laugh are analysts estimates for 2007 and 2008, absolutely ridiculous. GIGM already made $0.60 basic EPS in 2006, and analysts are still expecting just $0.61 for 07 and $0.81 for 2008:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35133;image)
There's huge room for positive surprises here. No doubt I'll keep holding GIGM.
Nothing changed on GIGM, I'll keep holding it.
Ok, let me start designing the graphs I need to get to the four variables of the long term valuation model for GIGM, starting by the historical share count and market cap:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35256;image)
Between the company's IPO in 2000 and 2005 the share count remained very stable, just above 50 million shares. But recently there was a small up tick to the current 51,446,715 shares outstanding. This is due to convertible debentures following the Fun Town acquisition.
It is interesting the company has been redeeming some convertibles, even though the basic share count rose, as we can see at the following balance sheet screen shot:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35257;image)
The first column is Q4 2006, the second is Q3 2006 and the third is Q4 2005. From the third quarter, the share count increased 0.82%, and the company redeemed 1,236,785 of convertible debentures, reducing the potential share count increase by 2.4 percentage points, from 17.46% to 15.06%.
Given this I would say GIGM will probably have about 56 million shares outstanding in 2009, which means a dilution factor of 1.0287, ok, let's round it up to 1.03, or 3% dilution CAGR.
So, the first variable to the valuation model, the dilution factor, is 1.03. We'll take care of the other three variables over the following updates.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
(http://#039;s%20round%20it%20up%20to%201.03,%20or%203%%20dilution%20CAGR.%3Cbr%20/%3E%3Cbr%20/%3ESo,%20the%20first%20variable%20to%20the%20valuation%20model,%20the%20dilution%20factor,%20is%201.03.%20We'll%20take%20care%20of%20the%20other%20three%20variables%20over%20the%20following%20updates.)
I also need to consider the balance sheet to get to that dilution factor, let's do that today:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35344;image)
I don't remember why I said GIGM's balance sheet wasn't particularly strong in the initial video analysis, it seems pretty healthy now, with a current ratio of 3.76 and zero long term debt.
Given this balance sheet analysis I maintain the 1.03 dilution factor calculated over the previous update. Tomorrow we'll estimate the revenue CAGR.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
Today is "revenue day" for GIGM. Let's study the historical trends:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35420;image)
If we consider the growth between 2004 and the average estimate for 2007 revenues, we get a revenue CAGR of 66.7%. Revenue growth in 2006 was 114% and analysts are predicting 59.3% for 2007. What puzzles me is management said it expects even stronger growth in 2007 when compared to 2006 growth rate, so probably analysts will have to upgrade their estimates.
When GIGM reports Q1 2007 I see at least 100% growth from Q1 2006. Q1 2006 revenues were $18 M.
Considering all this and the explosive markets the company is operating (online gambling and gaming, and the chance to monetize a lot of its free services), I'll consider a revenue CAGR for the next 3 years of 50%, or 1.5.
I'll keep holding GIGM, touching technical support yesterday.
GIGM is getting a bit annoying, technically breaking down yesterday. I'm glad we'll get to the final valuation model for GIGM today, because I need reassurance that this is an outstanding holding.
Let's check the EPS and net profit margin trends:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35480;image)
I believe the above graph shows a fantastic picture. I'll take 30% as my net profit margin estimate. As for the fourth variable I need to estimate, I'll naturally assume the Internet Software & Services industry average earnings multiple of 38.73 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=GIGM).
Let's see the results of the valuation model for GIGM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35481;image)
We get an extremely attractive share price CAGR of 71.9% and an optimal selling price today of $46.05. So my take is people selling don't have a clue of what they're doing and GIGM will soon be at new highs above $15.5.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
Hey David, I saw this posted on the yahoo board by sfhiddendragon. The poster got the 2 articles from yahoo-chinese and translated them with the following summaries. I wondered what you might think about it. Thanks, Ray
#1. http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a...
This article is about why the Xbox360 Mahjong game got delayed. It basically said that a lot of Asian game developers(mostly from TW and SK) are having some problems while transforming from PC/online game developers to XBOX games providers. And MSFT is holding a meeting with these companies in HK now to solve the problems. In term of our funtown, according to the article, since this Mahjong game will target the global market, MSFT said they don't wnat any "gambling feel," so instead of using the virtual money(funtown golden coins), they ask funtown to charge users based on the Time they play. Funtown is adjusting their software, should be ready later this year.
#2. http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a...
This is about funtown has to compensate their members for about 8m NTD(about 240k+ USD) due to an operational mistake at their horse racing game on March 22nd.
Quote from: dmdray69 on April 17, 2007, 12:43:47 AM
Hey David, I saw this posted on the yahoo board by sfhiddendragon. The poster got the 2 articles from yahoo-chinese and translated them with the following summaries. I wondered what you might think about it. Thanks, Ray
#1. http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a...
This article is about why the Xbox360 Mahjong game got delayed. It basically said that a lot of Asian game developers(mostly from TW and SK) are having some problems while transforming from PC/online game developers to XBOX games providers. And MSFT is holding a meeting with these companies in HK now to solve the problems. In term of our funtown, according to the article, since this Mahjong game will target the global market, MSFT said they don't wnat any "gambling feel," so instead of using the virtual money(funtown golden coins), they ask funtown to charge users based on the Time they play. Funtown is adjusting their software, should be ready later this year.
#2. http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a...
This is about funtown has to compensate their members for about 8m NTD(about 240k+ USD) due to an operational mistake at their horse racing game on March 22nd.
The links are in Chinese dmdray69, do you have them in English? Thanks :)
It would be great to have both those articles in English (or Portuguese for that matter) dmray69. Do you have a link to the Yahoo poster that translated the articles?
As for my fundamental estimates, they remain the same (just the EPS multiple estimate rose a bit):
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35696;image)
GIGM's share price CAGR is 66.5% and the optimal selling price today is $42.64.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
Sorry David,
That was actually the point of posting them. The guy who posted the summaries said he sometimes finds articles released only in the chinese media and translates them for the yahoo board to help those of us who don't speak or read chinese. Of course he portrays himself as a long just trying to help. His disposition doesn't seem malicious since in subsequent postings he felt the info wasn't actually bad, but instead cleared up some things about the impending mahjong release. The info SEEMED credible but I have been unable to find the articles in english.
I was posting the info to see if maybe someone else here had run across the same info or if you had, seeing that you often find info that is new to me. Thanks!! Ray
Quote from: dmdray69 on April 17, 2007, 08:05:55 AM
Sorry David,
That was actually the point of posting them. The guy who posted the summaries said he sometimes finds articles released only in the chinese media and translates them for the yahoo board to help those of us who don't speak or read chinese. Of course he portrays himself as a long just trying to help. His disposition doesn't seem malicious since in subsequent postings he felt the info wasn't actually bad, but instead cleared up some things about the impending mahjong release. The info SEEMED credible but I have been unable to find the articles in english.
I was posting the info to see if maybe someone else here had run across the same info or if you had, seeing that you often find info that is new to me. Thanks!! Ray
Maybe those articles are moving GIGM down a bit, since the stock opened down 2% or so on no news. Unfortunately I don't know Chinese, perhaps chinaguru or realcoolhead will take a look at those articles and say something about them ;D
Anywa, I don't see how my GIGM estimates can be flawed, they seem so logical and even conservative:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35737;image)
Technically the stock touched the $13.79 support, prior resistance. I don't know if it will test the 50 days simple moving average on this dip or not, but I see the stock at $67.05 three years from now and I'll keep on holding GIGM.
I'd love to. But the links only directed me to the main page of Taiwan Yahoo. >:(
Quote from: David Randolph on April 17, 2007, 05:19:20 PM
Maybe those articles are moving GIGM down a bit, since the stock opened down 2% or so on no news. Unfortunately I don't know Chinese, perhaps chinaguru or realcoolhead will take a look at those articles and say something about them ;D
Quote from: realcoolhead on April 19, 2007, 12:32:04 AM
I'd love to. But the links only directed me to the main page of Taiwan Yahoo. >:(
Thanks anyway realcoolhead :) Listen, there's another way you can help if you have time, I've been wondering about GIGM's FunTown website, because it isn't www.funtown.com, is it fun town in Chinese or something like that?
I would like to know the address of the website and the services it offers. Can you make a search on a Chinese search engine looking for Majhong or Gigamedia's FunTown?
Thanks :)
The valuation model says GIGM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main) is the third most attractive stock of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), I'll keep holding it also in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php).
I found something here http://www.gigamedia.com.tw/news/FunTownCompleted_Press_Release-Final.htm (http://www.gigamedia.com.tw/news/FunTownCompleted_Press_Release-Final.htm)
Founded in 1998 by the Acer computer company, FunTown is based in Greater China, with offices in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Have some fun at FunTown China http://www.funtown.com.cn (http://www.funtown.com.cn), FunTown Hong Kong http://www.funtown.com.hk (http://www.funtown.com.hk) and FunTown Taiwan http://www.funtown.com.tw (http://www.funtown.com.tw).
About FunTown
FunTown is one of the leading casual game platforms in Asia, with over four million registered users and a wide variety of fun and exciting games, including the world's largest Mahjong platform in terms of revenue. FunTown generates revenues through access fees and also through the sales of various in-game items.
FunTown's games are designed to be fun for players of all levels of skill and experience, from the complete beginner to the "Game Master." In addition, FunTown offers a strong online gaming community, with many opportunities for players to make friends and play together on teams competing against other groups in tournaments for fun and prizes. The company's software allows users to create their own fun and humorous online persona – offering players a wide selection of clothing, styles, icons and other elements to individualize a player's online look and keep their entertainment fresh and exciting.
FunTown's games can be played on personal computers, mobile phones, airplane entertainment consoles and, soon, on the Xbox 360 when launched in Taiwan and Hong Kong in March 2006. FunTown also has strong research and development capabilities and has developed nearly all games in-house.
Some more info: http://www.lexdon.com/article/GigaMedia_Buys_World_No._1/25134.html (http://www.lexdon.com/article/GigaMedia_Buys_World_No._1/25134.html)
Well, Se7en found them already :D
They offer people to play all kinds of games, not only MaJiang, actually most of them are card games. Of which, the Taiwan one seems most extensive in terms of different kind of games offered. One nice thing about these sites is that they are "localized". For example, people from Mainland China, Taiwan and HongKing all play Majiang, but they use different rules. Not only that, people from Mainland China prefer simplified Chinese yet those from Taiwan use traditional Chinese. The websites took that into consideration --- or because they were locally acquired anyway?
Of course as investors we care most about how they make money. I don't think they rely on advertisement much. Instead, people pay to play after initial try. They can pay real money, or they can buy game related stuffs and gain points which can be used to play games. If they are good at some games, they can get bonus points. For some really good players they can essentially play for free. The last part really get young kids hooked as they compete with each other fiercely for both points and for pride ...
Hope that helps. >:D
Thanks a lot for the information Se7en and realcoolhead :)
Asian people really have different design tastes than western people, don't you think? The FunTown website I enjoyed more was indeed the Taiwanese. Since Acer (the founder of FunTown) and Gigamedia are both Taiwanese companies, they probably put more effort on that website: http://www.funtown.com.tw
Today I studied one of GIGM's competitors, NTES, and that has lead me to raise my net profit margin estimate for GIGM, from 30% to 40%. Here's why:
1) NTES's revenue growth is expected to slow down a lot, maybe that's because GIGM is taking market share from it, since GIGM is growing very fast. NTES is a $2.36 B market cap company, so it's possible for GIGM to have that market value too (GIGM is currently worth $716 M)
2) NTES has the highest net profit margin I've ever seen, 57.4% :o Given this I shouldn't expect GIGM's net profit margin of 32.2% to go down to 30% over the next 3 years as revenue grows, net profit margin will probably go up to the 50% area, like it happened to NTES. For now I'll leave it at 40%.
This has raised the expected share price CAGR to 86.3% and the optimal selling price to $57.68:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35849;image)
I'll keep holding GIGM with strong hands.
Prominent Entertainment Industry Executive Joins GigaMedia
Friday April 20, 5:26 am ET
TAIPEI, Taiwan, April 20 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) announced today the appointment of Samuel Chou, a renowned entertainment industry executive, as head of online games and entertainment for GigaMedia.
Mr. Chou joins GigaMedia with more than 20 years experience in the entertainment and advertising industries and a distinguished record of developing strong brands and driving strong growth.
Mr. Chou was chairman and chief executive officer of Warner Music for the Greater China Region from 2004 to 2006. Prior to that, Mr. Chou was managing director of Warner Music in Taiwan, where he built Warner Music into the number one record label, quadrupling their market share and tripling their profitability. While at Warner Music, Mr. Chou was selected by Time Magazine as one of five "People to Watch in International Business." Mr. Chou was also previously the chairman of the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry in Taiwan.
"We are tremendously excited to welcome such an accomplished industry leader to our team," stated GigaMedia Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. "Samuel has been a major force in defining the entertainment experience in Asia for over a decade and we look to his leadership as we grow our online entertainment platform across the region."
"Samuel has repeatedly proven his understanding of what is relevant to our target audience," explained Giga CEO Arthur Wang. "And he will be key in helping us shape the most meaningful online offering -- games and other forms of online community, expression and entertainment -- which have now claimed primacy over traditional media."
As chief executive officer and president of online games and entertainment at GigaMedia, Mr. Chou will have overall responsibility for the Company's rapidly expanding online games and other online entertainment operations throughout Asia.
"I am thrilled to join such a strong company with such exciting growth potential," stated Samuel Chou. "I look forward to working with the team and leading GigaMedia through a period of significant and sustained growth and product success."
Mr. Chou joins GigaMedia from AsiaMuse Entertainment Group, a leading independent content and media group with services in key markets including recorded music, artist management, music portals, corporate communications, and television and media buying.
Samuel Chou earned his Master of Business Administration degree from the prestigious National Jiao Tung University in Taiwan and his Bachelor of Arts degree from National Taiwan University.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070420/hkf002.html?.v=54 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070420/hkf002.html?.v=54)
It looks like GIGM responded well to my Friday's upgrade ;D
After studying NTES I opened my mind to the very real possibility of GIGM having a net profit margin of 50% or more in the future, given the nature of its business. But I put "just" 40% net profit margin in my valuation model and results look like this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35956;image)
Given a 3% dilution rate, 50% revenue growth, 40% net profit margin and an industry average earnings multiple of 39.76, GIGM will be a $90 in 2009 and it should only be sold today at $57.68.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
I have 2 charts for GIGM.
I'm looking forward to opinions in which one makes more sense.
Hi Ares, thanks for both charts. I've long given up on trying to predict short term movements and your technical analysis is short term oriented, so I don't know how to pick one of your two technical views.
I can't and I don't want to buy to sell in a few days, to buy again a bit lower, to sell a bit higher. When I look at charts my main interest is the long term trend. Is it positive or negative? Is the stock above the 200 days simple moving average? Is the right side of the chart higher than the left side of the chart? The answers to these questions is what I look for in the charts.
But I respect and understand more short term oriented strategies.
As for GIGM, the main trend is bullish and fundamentals look very attractive:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36016;image)
Unless Europe bans online gambling or China forbids internet gaming, I don't see any downside to my estimates for GIGM. Of course, there's always risk, but current fundamental trends point to outstanding wealth creation for GIGM shareholders.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
GIGM: Short Interest UP 11.6% to 3.8M in Apr 2007
Tuesday , April 24, 2007 16:17ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) INCREASED 11.6% to 3,784,099 shares for the month ended mid-April, 2007.
SYMBOL MARCH APRIL CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
GIGM 3,392,170 3,784,099 +391,929 +11.55% 4
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,176,350, it would require approximately 4 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
how do you get such informative charts? my broker has pretty good charts but never as informative as the ones you guys usually put up.
stockcharts.com 9.95$ per months ;)
cheers
O.
Quote from: Ares on April 22, 2007, 11:18:20 AM
I have 2 charts for GIGM.
I'm looking forward to opinions in which one makes more sense.
Hi Ares,
GIGM just looks to me like it is repeating what happened in 2005-2006, even percentage wise it is nearly identical.
Best of Luck and Happy Trading!
Bourbon ;)
Quote from: pinoleropuro on April 24, 2007, 09:06:08 PM
how do you get such informative charts? my broker has pretty good charts but never as informative as the ones you guys usually put up.
www.stockcharts.com has a nice service, but in my opinion the professional technical analysis software Metastock is unbeatable (but is more expensive than stockcharts.com). I believe I use less than 5% of Metastock's possibilities. Here, let me put some more stuff on today's GIGM chart, like a stochastic oscillator, price rate of change, parabolic SAR, bollinger bands, etc ;D
Yesterday was a low volume day for GIGM, nothing happened on the technical front. Also, no news out. My fundamental estimates tell me GIGM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main) is the third best stock in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
Quote from: David Randolph on April 25, 2007, 03:46:21 AM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on April 24, 2007, 09:06:08 PM
how do you get such informative charts? my broker has pretty good charts but never as informative as the ones you guys usually put up.
www.stockcharts.com has a nice service, but in my opinion the professional technical analysis software Metastock is unbeatable (but is more expensive than stockcharts.com). I believe I use less than 5% of Metastock's possibilities. Here, let me put some more stuff on today's GIGM chart, like a stochastic oscillator, price rate of change, parabolic SAR, bollinger bands, etc ;D
Yesterday was a low volume day for GIGM, nothing happened on the technical front. Also, no news out. My fundamental estimates tell me GIGM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main) is the third best stock in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
Hi, Just wondering if anyone here has ever used TeleChart from Worden? If so, how do you like?
Quote
Hi, Just wondering if anyone here has ever used TeleChart from Worden? If so, how do you like?
I heard some good things about Telechart, however never tried it personally!
30-day free trial on Telechart--
http://worden.com/ I am a happy Telechart user. Many short-term swing trader or day traders using this program. Many people like Peter Worden's picks, live chart shows and live chat channel.
I don't follow Peter Worden's picks. I am very happy with David's picks here ;)
I also have Quotetracker.com....free real-time chart program.....just in case, if Telechart goes down...
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 25, 2007, 10:01:49 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on April 25, 2007, 03:46:21 AM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on April 24, 2007, 09:06:08 PM
how do you get such informative charts? my broker has pretty good charts but never as informative as the ones you guys usually put up.
www.stockcharts.com has a nice service, but in my opinion the professional technical analysis software Metastock is unbeatable (but is more expensive than stockcharts.com). I believe I use less than 5% of Metastock's possibilities. Here, let me put some more stuff on today's GIGM chart, like a stochastic oscillator, price rate of change, parabolic SAR, bollinger bands, etc ;D
Yesterday was a low volume day for GIGM, nothing happened on the technical front. Also, no news out. My fundamental estimates tell me GIGM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main) is the third best stock in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
Hi, Just wondering if anyone here has ever used TeleChart from Worden? If so, how do you like?
I, too, am very happy with Telechart because the charting and flexibility to scan is fabulous. In addition, I find Peter Worden's picks and Don Worden's analysis and picks to be quite good
Quote from: garyaross on April 25, 2007, 10:52:00 AM
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 25, 2007, 10:01:49 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on April 25, 2007, 03:46:21 AM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on April 24, 2007, 09:06:08 PM
how do you get such informative charts? my broker has pretty good charts but never as informative as the ones you guys usually put up.
www.stockcharts.com has a nice service, but in my opinion the professional technical analysis software Metastock is unbeatable (but is more expensive than stockcharts.com). I believe I use less than 5% of Metastock's possibilities. Here, let me put some more stuff on today's GIGM chart, like a stochastic oscillator, price rate of change, parabolic SAR, bollinger bands, etc ;D
Yesterday was a low volume day for GIGM, nothing happened on the technical front. Also, no news out. My fundamental estimates tell me GIGM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main) is the third best stock in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
Hi, Just wondering if anyone here has ever used TeleChart from Worden? If so, how do you like?
I, too, am very happy with Telechart because the charting and flexibility to scan is fabulous. In addition, I find Peter Worden's picks and Don Worden's analysis and picks to be quite good
Thanks for info.. I've heard many good things about them also. I'm going to do the trial soon. Do they allow a person to send their charts to another site such as 3SOF, or EM to others?
QuoteI don't follow Peter Worden's picks. I am very happy with David's picks here ;)
Thanks for the kind words in a not so shinny day dcrlin :)
GIGM had one of the lowest volume days of 2007 yesterday, as it consolidates recent gains. This is one of the top 3 holdings of the Main Portfolio, I'll keep holding it for the long term.
Q1 2007 results will probably be published in May 17, that's what happened in Q1 2006.
Thanks for the info guys, I did not mean to distract from the main topic.
David,
I am pretty new at this and I am also happy with your picks because since I started with you which has only been a very short time you have brought me back up in the black vs the red I was in on my own.
keep up the good work.
Thanks.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on April 26, 2007, 07:10:04 AM
Thanks for the info guys, I did not mean to distract from the main topic.
David,
I am pretty new at this and I am also happy with your picks because since I started with you which has only been a very short time you have brought me back up in the black vs the red I was in on my own.
keep up the good work.
Thanks.
Thanks for your kind words pinoleropuro :)
I expect things to get better over the next few months, as most of the stocks in the Main Portfolio are oversold and represent great value at current prices.
Concerning GIGM, it is now the second most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio, and it is more or less economic recession proof, you know?
My estimates seem quite achievable:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36233;image)
I'll keep holding GIGM.
GIGM will report earnings on May 22, and analysts estimates look like this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36328;image)
Analysts are expecting $0.14 EPS for Q1 2007, but the company made $0.17 EPS in Q4 2006, and there's no seasonality in this business. I believe GIGM will easily beat expectations.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
Yes, thanks for posting wxmang, perhaps the article helped GIGM's intraday rally, but it fizzled by the end of the session.
Fundamentally nothing changed, I still see GIGM as the second best stock in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), I'll keep holding it.
Almost at support. A buy at $13.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131)
Quote from: yukiii on May 01, 2007, 05:42:35 PM
Almost at support. A buy at $13.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131)
Wow yukiii, honestly, when I saw I had a reply from you on GIGM's thread I immediately started thinking: "oh my, he's going to make me work on this one too" ;D
But no, you're actually finding GIGM attractive. I'm positively surprised. Great!
Yes, GIGM seems to enjoy touching the 50 days SMA (coming up at $13.5) or the ascending trendline (blue on the chart, tomorrow at $13.02), before another bull run.
Results will be out on May 22, and I'm pretty confident the company will beat consensus estimates, since analysts are expecting just $0.14 EPS and the company already made $0.17 in Q4 2006 (and it has been growing strongly).
I'll keep holding GIGM.
hi,
on a technical note . could this either be a head and shoulders or a W forming ?
i will wait a moment to see .
maxi
Quote from: yukiii on May 01, 2007, 05:42:35 PM
Almost at support. A buy at $13.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131)
Will we still see the 50 days SMA at 13.50? Or is it a good buy at $14 today.
Cheers,
Quote from: labatts6254 on May 02, 2007, 01:40:42 PM
Quote from: yukiii on May 01, 2007, 05:42:35 PM
Almost at support. A buy at $13.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131)
Will we still see the 50 days SMA at 13.50? Or is it a good buy at $14 today.
Cheers,
I'm glad you asked yukiii that question, because I wouldn't know how to answer. I bought GIGM at $12.5, and I would buy it today at $14 with the same conviction and confidence (or maybe even more so, because since then I've raised my estimates, because Q1 results were very positive). I would dare to say GIGM is more attractive at $14 now than what it was at $12.5, because fundamentals improved a lot more than 11.5% or so since then.
Let me just say I hope GIGM goes down to $13.5 so everybody that is still out and wants to get in on a dip gets that chance. My personal opinion is if you worry too much about $0.5, it will be hard for you to hold it for a $20 or $30 move. Just an opinion like any other.
There were no news out for GIGM today. No new technical developments either. My valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main) says GIGM is very attractive at current levels, I'll continue holding the stock.
Quote from: labatts6254 on May 02, 2007, 01:40:42 PM
Quote from: yukiii on May 01, 2007, 05:42:35 PM
Almost at support. A buy at $13.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131)
Will we still see the 50 days SMA at 13.50? Or is it a good buy at $14 today.
Cheers,
Well it went down today to $13.83, that good enough to buy here. Whats .27 when the upside is alot higher.
Some long term growth Companies
IPGP
Manufactures fiber laser systems.
Superior technology, vertically-integrated business model and low-cost manufacturing capabilities.
Fiber lasers continue to supplant traditional systems.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +30%
52-Week Range: $17.78 - $28.00
BBND
Makes hardware and software to support switched video.
Technological lead and real-world experience with switched video.
Adoption of cost-effective switched video technology by cable operators.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +40%
52-Week Range: $16.30 - $20.75
EV
Asset manager with a leading position in closed-end funds.
Targeting closed-end funds and tax-efficient investments, two profitable and underserved niches.
Growing popularity of income oriented closed-end funds.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +15%
52-Week Range: $23.83 - $38.66
GROW
Manager of no-load mutual funds.
Focus on underserved emerging markets and commodities niches.
Growth Drivers: Continued demand and strong inflows for the firm's key asset classes.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +25%
52-Week Range: $8.78 - $36.36
You're both right; I'm not sure why I am contemplating buying at a .5 difference in the first place. I watched GIGM go for a run back in January and never got on board.
I plan to buy tomorrow, hopefully it does not take off before I fill my order. Thanks for the sound advise David, yukiii.
Cheers,
Quote from: labatts6254 on May 02, 2007, 07:51:59 PM
You're both right; I'm not sure why I am contemplating buying at a .5 difference in the first place. I watched GIGM go for a run back in January and never got on board.
I plan to buy tomorrow, hopefully it does not take off before I fill my order. Thanks for the sound advise David, yukiii.
Cheers,
I hope you got your shares labatts6254, because indeed GIGM rallied today. Here's a good example of a stock that "should have gone down" to the $13.5 support provided by the 50 days simple moving average, but no, it refused to do that and rose 2.73% to $14.32. Labatts6254, if you didn't get your shares, my advice is for you to buy them tomorrow and forget about short term movements. That is the only way that you'll be able to hold it for the big part of profit that this company/stock has to offer you.
As I look to the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), GIGM is the second best stock, and that with "below history" estimates in terms of revenue growth. I'm estimating just 50% revenue growth going forward and GIGM's revenues grew 113% in Q1 2007 from the year ago period.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
I'm in @ 14.10 today and plan to hold for the long term benefits of this stock. ;)
Cheers,
Quote from: labatts6254 on May 04, 2007, 01:24:12 AM
I'm in @ 14.10 today and plan to hold for the long term benefits of this stock. ;)
Cheers
I'm glad to know you're an investor in GIGM labatts6254 :)
Fundamentally probably there won't be anything new until the Q1 earnings release in May 22. Technically the stock seems ready to challenge its highs at $15.41, possibly even before the earnings.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
David, Have you heard of already, or do you have an opinion on GIGM's Jan 07 buying of a controlling interest in T2CN, China's online sports game leader? I just now became aware of this aquisition, this weekend. Maybe I just missed the announcement somewhere?
Quote from: BigSully1 on May 06, 2007, 03:56:04 PM
David, Have you heard of already, or do you have an opinion on GIGM's Jan 07 buying of a controlling interest in T2CN, China's online sports game leader? I just now became aware of this aquisition, this weekend. Maybe I just missed the announcement somewhere?
Yes, there was a form 6-K filed with the SEC on January 22nd, 2007, about the T2CN acquisition:
Form 6-K (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1105101/000119312507009638/d6k.htm)
The acquisition was also mentioned in the annual earnings report:
• GigaMedia 2006 Net Profit up 386% to US$31 Million (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070313/hktu003.html?.v=47)
PR Newswire (Tue, Mar 13)
GIGM is pushing up to meet the recent highs at $15.41. As we've discussed previously, I believe the company will easily beat Q1 estimates which are too low.
Wow, I just noticed that since the Internet Software & Services industry average earnings multiple rose to 42.57 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=gigm) and I use that number for my long term EPS multiple estimate, GIGM is now the most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), with an expected share price CAGR of 86.73% and an optimal selling price of $62.9 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main).
Earnings will be released on May 22, I'll keep on holding GIGM.
GIGM traded at a new 7 year high today, but closed just shy of it. It doesn't matter much for the long term outcome of this investment. It is starting to become clear to everybody that the company will easily exceed the average analysts estimates for Q1 2007, which seem low:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36624;image)
Analysts are expecting $0.14 EPS on $34.59 M revenue.
The company gave the following guidance:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36625;image)
Especially given the T2CN contribution, probably the company will beat estimates. We'll have to wait for May 22 to find out for sure.
Looking beyond the 1st quarter results, my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main) (which considers current and historical fundamental trends), says GIGM will be a $96.71 stock in late 2009 and therefore should only be sold at the optimal selling price of $61.96 (the price where annual return would start being less than the minimum 16% threshold).
I'll keep holding GIGM.
GIGM closed at a new 7 year high today (I believe it is an all time high in market cap terms, I'll dig that for the next update if you ask me to).
There's nothing else to do but to sit tight and let the profits run.
QuoteGIGM closed at a new 7 year high today (I believe it is an all time high in market cap terms, I'll dig that for the next update if you ask me to).
Hmm, nobody asked, ok.
Yesterday GIGM broke out above the $14.41 resistance level, and today it had a pull back to that level, which now acts as a short term support. As we've seen previously, Q1 earnings will be out on May 22. I'll keep holding GIGM, the second most attractive stock of the Main Portfolio.
David,
Past 4 quarters..GIGM has always sold off after reporting the numbers..dont think it will be any different this time, but i would sincerely hope it would.
Would'nt be surprised to see a pre-CC run-up high of 17-17.50 though.
Nick
Quote from: nicknite20 on May 11, 2007, 07:37:42 AM
David,
Past 4 quarters..GIGM has always sold off after reporting the numbers..dont think it will be any different this time, but i would sincerely hope it would.
Would'nt be surprised to see a pre-CC run-up high of 17-17.50 though.
Nick
The short-term sell off is not much of a concern, besides it has a history of bouncing back within a few trading days anyhow. Take the 03/13/07 earnings for example, it opened at 12.92, closed at 11.98; then on 13/19/07 it closed at 13.01. Since we really cannot determine the bottom of the sell off, is it really worth the short-term trading; when the uptrend progresses in the long run? I plan to hold GIGM through earnings.
Cheers,
Without a doubt..Ive been holding on since 6.83..and adding on dips when possible.
I think we will see 20 very soon.
Quote from: nicknite20 on May 11, 2007, 07:37:42 AM
David,
Past 4 quarters..GIGM has always sold off after reporting the numbers..dont think it will be any different this time, but i would sincerely hope it would.
Would'nt be surprised to see a pre-CC run-up high of 17-17.50 though.
Nick
Yes Nick, that has been the historical pattern. But it depends on how strong the quarter is. If for example, the net profit margin expands from about 30% to 40% (as I expect to happen over the long term), I don't see how GIGM can pullback. My valuation model, which I believe is conservatively estimated, tells me GIGM will be a $96.71 stock in 2009 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main), so it may very well have a jump to $20 plus at this point in time.
QuoteThe short-term sell off is not much of a concern, besides it has a history of bouncing back within a few trading days anyhow. Take the 03/13/07 earnings for example, it opened at 12.92, closed at 11.98; then on 13/19/07 it closed at 13.01. Since we really cannot determine the bottom of the sell off, is it really worth the short-term trading; when the uptrend progresses in the long run? I plan to hold GIGM through earnings.
Cheers
I fully agree with you labatts6254.
Quote from: nicknite20 on May 11, 2007, 04:13:06 PM
Without a doubt..Ive been holding on since 6.83..and adding on dips when possible.
I think we will see 20 very soon.
GIGM has been an awesome investment for you nicknite20, congratulations for your patience to hold for a huge gain, and for not trying to take profits to buy just a touch lower - you probably would have missed most of the ride.
Another day, another new 7 year high for GIGM. I'll keep holding the stock.
"GIGM has been an awesome investment for you nicknite20, congratulations for your patience to hold for a huge gain, and for not trying to take profits to buy just a touch lower - you probably would have missed most of the ride. "
David,
Its needed a lot of will power, trust me. But, i honestly havent come accross a stock i like as much..although SILC is soon fitting the bill.
Nick
GIGM mentioned ...
http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/05/14/poverty-to-prosperity.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/05/14/poverty-to-prosperity.aspx)
There's one other stock in that article that got my attention David:
OPMR
Market Cap 190.6 mil
Earnings surprise 600%
5y Growth Est. 60%
QuoteDavid,
Its needed a lot of will power, trust me. But, i honestly havent come accross a stock i like as much..although SILC is soon fitting the bill.
Nick
This is interesting Nick. What makes you like GIGM (and SILC) so much? The revenue growth, the fat net profit margin or what else?
You know I absolutely love both companies, but GIGM seems even more magic, because after all, GIGM isn't much more than computer programming code (like Google) and SILC sells "physical" products. SILC existed before the internet, GIGM's current business model was impossible 15 years ago.
In my view the one and only thing that can spoil GIGM's party is government regulation. The US approved that law forbidding online gambling (I don't have a political opinion on the issue, didn't give enough thought or study to it), and if the rest of the world follows the US lead, that would hurt GIGM. But it seems it will happen the other way around and it will be the US to go back and allow online gambling again. They just have to figure out a way of taxing it effectively. If the US government finds a way to get its share of the pie, I guess it will allow online gambling again.
Anyway, the immediate future for GIGM seems very bright, fundamental trends are powerful. Results will be out on January 22nd and I believe we've already covered most aspects of what to expect.
GIGM is the second most attractive holding of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), I'll continue holding it.
Quote from: Se7en on May 14, 2007, 05:25:48 PM
GIGM mentioned ...
http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/05/14/poverty-to-prosperity.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/05/14/poverty-to-prosperity.aspx)
There's one other stock in that article that got my attention David:
OPMR
Market Cap 190.6 mil
Earnings surprise 600%
5y Growth Est. 60%
Hi Se7en, I don't know much about OPMR, but the stock went down 9.6% today after those earnings, so probably the positive news was already discounted. If you're interested please make a request for a OPMR analysis tomorrow at 11 AM, ET, at the Analysis on Demand thread (sorry for today's miss, personal issues). Thanks :)
Let's hope David meant May 22nd. :)
the only stock that i bought ..from main portfolio..and bought high at 16 :-\
"This is interesting Nick. What makes you like GIGM (and SILC) so much? The revenue growth, the fat net profit margin or what else?"
David,
The most attactive thing abt GIGM is the management duo (now trio?)..Wang & Hui know how to execute. Period.
Theyve struck the right deals (T2CN, Hellgate etc etc)..and Everest is a cash cow.
The earnings are solid and expected to come in close to 0.90 this year..this makes them very undervalued given their QoQ growth. Mahjong 4$ is not even factored in the estimates which could be huge.
I agree, the biggest risk here is regulation..but i would be very surprised if Europe turns around. You're right, its more likely that US would give in.
I would hope Bear Stearns starts coverage soon..(they've been participating in the past 3 CCs..but so far havent done much more)
Nick
Quote from: poppintito on May 14, 2007, 09:48:06 PM
the only stock that i bought ..from main portfolio..and bought high at 16 :-\
I wonder what you took so long to buy GIGM poppintito, I recommended the stock when it was trading at $12.5. But worry not, you bought a fundamentally sound company that will come back and give you an outstanding return on your investment if you're patient enough to hold it for the long term, at least this is my current expectation, I hope I won't be negatively surprised (I honestly don't think so).
QuoteDavid,
The most attactive thing abt GIGM is the management duo (now trio?)..Wang & Hui know how to execute. Period.
This is getting even more interesting nicknite20 :)
I always find it hard to judge the management's quality, it seems such a subjective analysis. Or do you value them by the results the company gets? (it seems so). But then, if you value the management's quality by the results, why not just analyze the results themselves and leave the quality of the people involved alone? It seems to me that by weighing the results and at the same time the people that achieved them you're duplicating the entries.
I would be interested in an objective criteria to value management, but that criteria shouldn't be connected to results, because those I already value in my valuation model.
What's your take on this strategic issue nicknite20? Thanks :)
QuoteTheyve struck the right deals (T2CN, Hellgate etc etc)..and Everest is a cash cow.
The earnings are solid and expected to come in close to 0.90 this year..this makes them very undervalued given their QoQ growth. Mahjong 4$ is not even factored in the estimates which could be huge.
I agree, the biggest risk here is regulation..but i would be very surprised if Europe turns around. You're right, its more likely that US would give in.
I would hope Bear Stearns starts coverage soon..(they've been participating in the past 3 CCs..but so far havent done much more)
Nick
Thanks for the interesting information and analysis nicknite.
So you're around the $0.90 EPS expected for 2007. Analysts expect just $0.62, so you see positive surprises ahead. Let me check how 2007 would need to look like to stay the course in terms of my long term expectation:
1) I would expect the share count to be about 53 million at year's end;
2) I want to see revenue of at least $142 M (analysts expect $151 M)
3) I want to see net income of $60 M, and that means EPS of $1.14 (basic), so I'm even more optimistic than you;
4) I want to see the stock trading at an earnings multiple of 38.4, which is the Internet Software & Services industry average (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=GIGM).
If all this indeed happens GIGM will close 2007 at $43.63, I'll continue holding the stock.
becus i just recently joined this service... ;D
my core holding is onxx and pten
its ok .im optimistic and i have faith in u david :D
GigaMedia Licenses Hit SEGA Game
Tuesday May 15, 11:46 pm ET
Latest Sequel to No.1 RPG Series Phantasy Star to be Available on PC
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070515/hktu008.html?.v=6 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070515/hktu008.html?.v=6)
"This is getting even more interesting nicknite20 :)
I always find it hard to judge the management's quality, it seems such a subjective analysis. Or do you value them by the results the company gets? (it seems so). But then, if you value the management's quality by the results, why not just analyze the results themselves and leave the quality of the people involved alone? It seems to me that by weighing the results and at the same time the people that achieved them you're duplicating the entries.
I would be interested in an objective criteria to value management, but that criteria shouldn't be connected to results, because those I already value in my valuation model.
What's your take on this strategic issue nicknite20? Thanks :)"
David, I guess not, most of the management actions are translated into financials..however, all great cos have had leaders which add share holder value - MSFT, BRK etc etc and off late Hurd with HPQ
So its definitely a positive that Wang&Hui understand the business and are pursuing the right strategy towards that end.
Over the past year they have significantly diversified the business (online gaming, online gambling etc etc) some of the revenue streams of which are not yet factored into the estimates.
"So you're around the $0.90 EPS expected for 2007. Analysts expect just $0.62, so you see positive surprises ahead. Let me check how 2007 would need to look like to stay the course in terms of my long term expectation:
1) I would expect the share count to be about 53 million at year's end;
2) I want to see revenue of at least $142 M (analysts expect $151 M)
3) I want to see net income of $60 M, and that means EPS of $1.14 (basic), so I'm even more optimistic than you;
4) I want to see the stock trading at an earnings multiple of 38.4, which is the Internet Software & Services industry average (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=GIGM).
If all this indeed happens GIGM will close 2007 at $43.63, I'll continue holding the stock. "
1.14 might be a stretch unless Everest significantly increases concurrent players beyond the average 5000 players it has currently..or, licencing revenues from Hellgate come in much higher OR Mahjong4$ is a much bigger success than anticipated. The ball for M4$ is in Carmen Media's court. At the moment, i see 1.14 very difficult to achieve.
Im looking at 0.90 * 30 = 27 as price target for this year..anything above that ofcourse is a welcome bonus..but ofcourse the May 22nd call will throw more light on this.
Good luck and thanks again for your continued coverage of GIGM
Thanks for your reply nicknite20 :)
Yesterday we had positive news for GIGM, but probably irrelevant in terms of the stock's price:
• GigaMedia Licenses Hit SEGA Game (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070515/hktu008.html?.v=6)
PR Newswire (Tue, May 15)
The stock rose 4% on volume above average, and it seems it will defy the $16.16 high before earnings, we'll see about that. I believe we already covered most relevant aspects of what to expect in Q1 2007, basically I expect the company to beat estimates of $0.14 EPS and $34.59 M revenue, so we just have to wait for the numbers.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
Today was a small day for GIGM, both in terms of price change and volume. There's nothing to think about today. Fundamentals were also extensively covered in previous updates. The conclusion is the stock is very attractive. Now we just have to sit, wait, and let our money grow.
GIGM's earnings will be released on Tuesday before the market open, so Monday is going to be the last day to buy/sell before earnings. I'm not going to buy (since I already bought at $12.5) and I'm not going to sell either, because I expect a good 1st quarter and beyond.
It is time to have faith in the CEO's words over the Q4 2006 earnings release:
"We are seeing but the early returns from our investments and strategic steps to build a dominant online entertainment business," explained CEO Arthur Wang. "As such, we are looking to deliver tremendous shareholder value in 2007 and beyond."
I'll hold GIGM through earnings with confidence.
Okay, did a quick research on Gigm (see my questions on the CIMT treat).
Based on the close:
February releases fall of 7,4%, high of the day not higher than day before, next day no fall
November 2006 releases fall of 5,6%, high of the day higher than day before, next day slight rise (3,7%)
August 2006 releases fall of 2,5%, high of the day higher than day before, next day further fall (10%)
So based on this past it would be wise to get out the day before (being today) and get back in around -5% from close on the earnings date release. If only the past was any guarantee for the funture... ??? :P
I'll let it sink in for a couple more hours.
Amarens
I just bought some GIGM.I may be wrong but this is what I see.Technically speaking the 10 DMA flattened out aginst the 20 Dma late april early may .A bout 6 days ago stock hits 52 wk. high and the 10 dma pulls away from 20 dma while the stock price pulls back.Stock starts coming back up last couple of days.BULLISH sign. Today's volume will most likely cross over 30 day high. which is 1399300 on the 9th of may.I have afeeling volume today will close around1.7+ either way another bullish sign. Fund. a great company m cap 836 millions,Fwd P/e 19.82 5 yr. growth rate 40%.For an internet company has more cash than debt, unusual.
Quote from: Amarens on May 21, 2007, 12:31:33 PM
Okay, did a quick research on Gigm (see my questions on the CIMT treat).
Based on the close:
February releases fall of 7,4%, high of the day not higher than day before, next day no fall
November 2006 releases fall of 5,6%, high of the day higher than day before, next day slight rise (3,7%)
August 2006 releases fall of 2,5%, high of the day higher than day before, next day further fall (10%)
So based on this past it would be wise to get out the day before (being today) and get back in around -5% from close on the earnings date release. If only the past was any guarantee for the funture... ??? :P
I'll let it sink in for a couple more hours.
Amarens
Amaren,
Having been in this stock for over a year, i just have 1 conclusion..its almost impossible to time the buys / sells & to trade this stock.
Last earnings, they tried to keep it down, but it failed the next day.
Also, another thing to bear in mind, previous quarters were always reported 1-2 days before options expiry which probably also impacted the price on the day of earnings.
Anyway..the general consensus is that GIGM always "sells the news"..but hoping it woudl be different this time.
Also, the best time to sell based on previous quarters is not today, but in pre-market tomorrow, or in first half an hour of trading.
Good luck.
Nick
Results were just released:
GigaMedia Q1 Net Profit up 167% (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070522/hktu006.html?.v=30)
- Revenue was $36.1 M. Analysts expected $34.59 M;
- EPS was $0.16 (basic) and $0.14 (fully diluted). Analysts expected $0.14 (basic).
Net profit margin declined but that was largely due to one time events:
- «The quarter-over-quarter variation was largely due to the impact of a one-time after-tax gain on the sale of marketable securities of approximately $1.9 million recorded during the fourth quarter.»
- «Increased expenses in the first quarter, primarily related to the initial marketing launch of Hellgate: London, resulted in a lower operating margin and net income in the period.»
Guidance for Q2 2007 wasn't very nice but that's mostly because of seasonal factors:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37100;image)
On my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main) I'm expecting just 50% revenue CAGR, and the company has been delivering a lot more than that, for example, in this quarter revenue growth from the year ago levels was 95%. So I had already factored in a revenue growth slowdown, from around 100% to around 50% (but it will probably be more than this).
Ok, I see now that the stock is down in pre-market, as it usually happens with GIGM :( My take is that the people selling today will be buying the stock at new highs a couple of months from now.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
David,
Action this time is very different than past 4 calls where we have been significantly higher in pre-market and dropped through the day. Hopefully this time is the reverse.
Nick
GIGM: Q1 Adj EPS 15c vs 5c Beats 14c Est; Guidance Comments
Tuesday , May 22, 2007 08:52ET
QUARTER RESULTS
GigaMedia Limited (GIGM) reported Q1 results ended March 2007. Q1 Revenues were $36.09M; +94.64% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +4.32%. Q1 EPS was 14c. Adjusted Q1 EPS was 15c; +200.00% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +7.14%.
Q1 RESULTS Reported Year-Ago Y/Y Chg Estimate SURPRISE
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Revenues: $36.09M $18.54M +94.64% $34.59M +4.32%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ---------- ------------------
EPS: 14c N/A N/A N/A N/A
Adj EPS: 15c 5c +200.00% 4c +7.14%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
GUIDANCE
Q2-07 Revenue Outlook : For its Gaming software business, the Company expects second-quarter revenue growth on a percentage basis to be lower than the percentage growth achieved in the first quarter. For its Broadband ISP business, the Company expects revenues in its legacy broadband ISP business to continue to decline moderately in the second quarter in line with plans.
Picked up some gigm at 14.54.
Looks like it will drift in the $14's for some time before going back up.
Target $18.00 - $24.00
The following title ...
«GigaMedia Q1 net up; sees lower Q2 sequential revenue»
... is misleading. What the company said was:
«We expect second-quarter revenue growth on a percentage basis to be lower than the percentage growth achieved in the first quarter.»
They expect slower revenue growth in their software business, but not a lower revenue on a sequential basis. Slower growth is different from an outright decline. Of course growth would slow, it has been 50% a quarter :o (revenues of that business unit are up 428% from the year ago levels).
I believe the next two analysts are seeing GIGM right. Thanks for the article La-onda :)
A drop this far is unwarranted; I think we will bounce back to all new highs soon. I can not see this trading down the next 2 days; I think we will gain back 2-4% to finish the week (JMHO and wishful thinking).
Cheers,
GIGM is having a correction that fits the usual trading pattern of this stock. It is possible that it goes down to test the ascending trendline support, which currently stands at $13.73. The ascending trendline rises $0.049 per trading day, so, if GIGM keeps respecting it, three years from now it will be a $50.54 stock. My valuation model calls for more than that, since the final estimated share price is $87.02 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main), so I would naturally expect GIGM's ascending trend to steepen a bit going forward. Therefore maybe the stock will make a higher low (not really touching the ascending trendline).
I'll continue holding GIGM.
Isn't nearly the entire market affected after the Greenspan statements. I mean some pullbacks have little to do with the individual stock and more with the entire market. I'm just trying to understand all this. It seems to me that everyone took a hit yesterday afternoon.
Taken from yahoo msg board..cannot verify source, but
"ThinkEquity raises their GigaMedia (GIGM 14.88) tgt to $20 from $18 after the co reported a solid quarter with upside to our estimates... "
Time to pickup some bargins here, most stocks hit there bottom today...........
Buy Mid caps and large caps..............
"Time to pickup some bargins here, most stocks hit there bottom today..........."
The market has been "on fire" the entire year. You actually think it is rock bottom?
I am looking a the charts of the US Markets and we are coming down off multi-year highs.
Just a small correction, no reason to go down yet, untill the fed rasies interest rates.
Quote from: yukiii on May 24, 2007, 12:50:11 PM
Time to pickup some bargins here, most stocks hit there bottom today...........
Buy Mid caps and large caps..............
yukii, i have to agree with wxmang here..too early to open any positions here..i feel a better opportunity will be presented in the coming days.
I don't see any reason for a correction here and all the reasons for the current market run are still intact. I'm buying dips.
Added more gigm at 14.25
Quote from: nicknite20 on May 24, 2007, 01:27:08 PM
Quote from: yukiii on May 24, 2007, 12:50:11 PM
Time to pickup some bargins here, most stocks hit there bottom today...........
Buy Mid caps and large caps..............
yukii, i have to agree with wxmang here..too early to open any positions here..i feel a better opportunity will be presented in the coming days.
All ready bounced twice off the 13 back up we go......................
just fyi:
GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM, Trade ) has advanced in share price by 4% over the past four weeks and is trading near its 52-week high. The company recently posted first-quarter earnings of 14 cents per share, more than doubling the year-prior result. Consolidated revenues soared 95% on a year-over-year basis. GigaMedia mentioned that it is very excited about its upcoming launch this summer of new games and products in Asia, including its suite of real-money Japanese games.
;)
Quote from: la-onda on May 24, 2007, 05:53:27 PM
just fyi:
GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM, Trade ) has advanced in share price by 4% over the past four weeks and is trading near its 52-week high. The company recently posted first-quarter earnings of 14 cents per share, more than doubling the year-prior result. Consolidated revenues soared 95% on a year-over-year basis. GigaMedia mentioned that it is very excited about its upcoming launch this summer of new games and products in Asia, including its suite of real-money Japanese games.
;)
Yes la-onda, people have been seeing the glass half empty and focusing on the negative aspects of any earnings report. I guess on GIGM they're focusing on the following:
«The
quarter-over-quarter decrease in our consolidated operating margin was due to decreases in the operating margins of our Asian online games business and our broadband ISP business and an increase in non- cash share-based compensation expense, which more than offset an increase in the operating margin of our gaming software business in the first quarter.»
«Consolidated net income for the quarter increased 167 percent to $8.5 million from $3.2 million in 2006, and
declined by 14 percent from the previous quarter. The quarter-over-quarter variation was largely due to the impact of a one-time after-tax gain on the sale of marketable securities of approximately $1.9 million recorded during the fourth quarter.»
«Non-GAAP consolidated net income in the first quarter was $8.7 million, representing an increase of 172 percent over the same period last year and a 13 percent decrease from the fourth quarter of 2006. Non-GAAP basic earnings per share were $0.17, a 164 percent increase from 2006 and a
decrease of 14 percent quarter-over-quarter. Non-GAAP fully-diluted earnings per share were $0.15, a 186 percent increase from the same period last year and a
decrease of 13 percent from the fourth quarter.»
«First-quarter revenues in the consumer broadband ISP business were $2.6 million, a
27 percent decrease compared to the same period last year and a 20 percent decrease quarter-over-quarter. The variations were primarily due to the sale of the ADSL business in May 2006 and the decrease in fees derived from bandwidth, consulting and support services in the first quarter of 2007 related to such sale.»
«Business Outlook
Gaming software business. In the second quarter of 2007, we expect continued revenue growth and momentum in our gaming software business, partially offset by a
traditional downturn in online gaming during the summer season and increased competition in our markets. We expect second-quarter revenue growth on a percentage basis to be
lower than the percentage growth achieved in the first quarter.
Asian online games business. We expect ongoing investments in our Asian online games business to drive revenue growth in the second quarter, partially offset by a
traditional downturn in online game play during the school exam season. Consolidation of the China casual games portal T2CN is expected to result in growing contributions from the Asian online games business going forward.
Broadband ISP business. We expect revenues in our legacy broadband ISP business
to continue to decline moderately in the second quarter in line with plans.»
There are plenty of reasons to sell GIGM if one wants to look at it that way.
The way I see it GIGM is trading at 16 times 2008 estimated EPS (and those estimates seem way too conservative (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=GIGM), considering the recent historical growth rate), which is too low for a company growing revenues by 95% YoY.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
additional info; I am holding GIGM with strong hands >:D ;)
GIGM: Short Interest UP 4.5% to 4.0M in May 2007
Friday , May 25, 2007 01:04ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) INCREASED 4.5% to 3,953,770 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2007.
SYMBOL APRIL MAY CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
GIGM 3,784,099 3,953,770 +169,671 +4.48% 4
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,110,740, it would require approximately 4 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
please download & read the Q1 CC transcript carefully >:D
David, I again used your charts to pick up GIGM at 13.95, only this one I intend to hold. I think when and if people see the the Greenspan prediction of selloff in China fail to hold true, at least in the ST, they will buy this back and probably also NTES.
GIGM $ 14.24
GigaMedia Ltd. -0.02
Shares Short 3,953,800
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 4.7
Short % of Float 11.25 %
Shares Short - Prior 3,784,100
Short % Increase / Decrease 4.48 %
Quoteplease download & read the Q1 CC transcript carefully >:D
I read it la-onda, it sure strengthens one's hands on GIGM. These CC transcripts are very nice, where do you get them, is there a website that makes them or do you have a service to do it? Thanks :)
Quote from: BigSully1 on May 25, 2007, 02:48:02 PM
David, I again used your charts to pick up GIGM at 13.95, only this one I intend to hold. I think when and if people see the the Greenspan prediction of selloff in China fail to hold true, at least in the ST, they will buy this back and probably also NTES.
Yes, on Friday the Shangai B index rose 8% on the day after Greenspan's words. My take is Greenspan talks about China the way he did about US stocks in 1995, in his famous "irrational exuberance" comment. China may very well have 5 more years of strong growth and very high stock market gains.
Technically GIGM has been trading within the ascending channel on the chart below, making higher lows and higher highs, the main characteristic of a bull trend.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM goes down, but it doesn't stay down for long, since fundamentals are very attractive. As the CEO says:
«"We are seeing but the early returns from our investments and strategic steps to build a dominant online entertainment business," explained CEO Arthur Wang. "As such, we are looking to deliver tremendous shareholder value in 2007 and beyond."»
I'll continue holding GIGM.
yukiii started a discussion about GIGM on SNDA's thread, I wish it was here. I believe he said Q2 comparison is tough. But that's because GIGM had a $7 M special gain in Q2 2006. Without this special gain net income would have been $4 M, or about $0.08 EPS. GIGM may very well have double of this number in Q2 2007, since, as nicknite20 says, lower growth still means growth:
QuoteWe expect second-quarter revenue growth on a percentage basis to be lower than the percentage growth achieved in the first quarter.
Hmm, now I'm in doubt, this slower growth forecast is for the year on year comparison or the sequential one?
I'm going to write this question to GIGM's investor relations.
Anyway, I see the company on track to easily meet or exceed my long term forecast of 50% revenue CAGR (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main), so I'll keep holding GIGM.
QuoteTranslate: Yes that means we would very much expect .01 over the 1st quarter or 6.7% growth.
You don't know about 6.7% growth. It can be 20 or 30% sequential growth, it would still be lower than Q1 sequential growth of that business unit.
Quoteand compare that to .18 last year
But yukiii, check that $7.77 M one time gain affecting Q2 2006 earnings (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=gigm&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr), you can't compare apples to oranges. Without that $7.77 M one time gain, Q2 2006 EPS would have been 8-9 cents. Comparison will be favorable.
QuoteThe headline will read earning lower 16% from last year , then you can buy GIGM at lower prices.
I don't think the company will publish a misleading press release. It will compare Non GAAP numbers. Or else it will explain the differences. Come on, you see that comparable net income and EPS will at least double in Q2 2007 when compared to Q2 2006.
All chinese game stocks up big today, GIGM down I wonder why??????
Quote from: yukiii on May 31, 2007, 02:26:35 PM
All chinese game stocks up big today, GIGM down I wonder why??????
Irrelevant short term noise. If you're going to sell a stock because the stock is down in one day while other stocks from the same geographic region and sector are up, my guess is you won't hold any stock more than three days. Or else, you choose to focus your attention in that type of information for GIGM's specific case in this specific time, but not in other similar situations.
My take is GIGM went down today because it went up 5% two days ago and needs to consolidate that move. But, what the stock does today, tomorrow, or even this week isn't a factor to where it will close 2007, 2008 or 2009. Other factors, different from the stock price, determine that. Things like dilution, revenues, net profit margin and earnings multiple.
My long term valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main) considers these factors and says GIGM will probably be a $83 or so stock in late 2009, so I'll keep on holding the stock.
GIGM has been trading in this long term ascending channel. Do you think it could trend down over the midium term to bounce off the lower support, say around $13, before the next bull leg up?
GIGM has strong support at $14.32. I like GIGM just don't think it will go up short term, like I said before it will stay in the 14 teens till we here some good news.
I would buy here or lower for the long term, not much downside here.
Quote from: yukiii on June 01, 2007, 03:14:41 PM
GIGM has strong support at $14.32. I like GIGM just don't think it will go up short term, like I said before it will stay in the 14 teens till we here some good news.
I would buy here or lower for the long term, not much downside here.
Just curious, how do you see strong support @$14.32? I can see support about 13.72 to 13.79, but not really at 14.32. Am I missing something? You must have done a 360 and bought. Amongst many other things, some of your posts helped convince me to sell. Did I sell to you?
I sold GIGM along with everything else Chinese and then some.. GL.
Just watching as i said, will wait till next earnings to come out.
Support and resistance in April and May was $14.32 next support is $13.28
Sold SILC today, Only 3SOF stocks i have left are TBSI, NVTL and SNDA.
Took profits todays in most of my other stocks, still holding EGO, PZZ and WPCS.
Went back into Gold and Oil again and Silver again and SKK hedge alsokeeping my Germany and Japan funds.
June 7th and next few weeks are usually down and sideways, good time for vacation.
Eyes will be on interest rates going up.
Read market update
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9050.msg99782#new (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9050.msg99782#new)
I like most of 3SOF picks right now for the long-term hold... look at these trends, pretty good stuff eh. ;)
SILC, GIGM, ALDN, JACK, NVTL
I'm not sure what GIGM will do over the short term. It may go down to test the ascending support at $14.05 or even the horizontal support at $13.79. Or it may go up to close the gap opened between $15.34 and $15.77 and challenge the recent seven year high at $16.42.
You may choose to look at the glass half empty or half full.
My take is it doesn't matter which way you choose to look, or if you're right or wrong, because you shouldn't be looking at those short term issues to begin with. Not if you wish to achieve an outstanding long term performance.
Next quarter or seasonality doesn't matter either. What matters is where do you see GIGM's business a few years from now, and if the price you're paying is below what it should be, given your vision.
The way I see it (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main), GIGM won't increase its share count by more than 3% a year, it will grow revenues by at least 50% per year, it will enjoy a fat net profit margin of 40% and it will trade at an earnings multiple of 37.
If my expectation and reality meet, GIGM will be an $83.9 stock in 2009 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main), delivering a 79% average annual return on my investment.
I would like to take the discussion on this thread to whether my estimates are plausible or not. But of course, write about whatever you feel like :)
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
Some people sold GIGM at today's open because Shangai's stock exchange index went down 8% overnight. But there's no correlation between the Chinese stock market and the Chinese economy. Moreover GIGM's revenues come mostly from Europe. It is interesting how this Taiwan based company has a strong foot in Europe, but not in the US.
It is a Taiwan based multinational, like Acer.
GIGM is the second most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio, I'll keep holding it for the long term.
Hi, I've received an e-mail from GIGM's investor relations:
«Hi David:
We were stating that we expect growth in Q2 2007, but that we expect the percentage of that growth will be lower than the growth between 4Q 2006 and 1Q 2007. In other words we were speaking about Q-on-Q growth.
Thanks for your email and your support.
Best regards,
Brad»
So, there will be sequential growth from Q1 2007. In Q1 2007 GIGM had revenue of $36.1M and fully diluted Non-GAAP EPS of $0.14.
In Q2 2006, GIGM had revenue of $21 M (it will be more than $36.1 M in Q2 2007) and Non-GAAP EPS of 7 cents (it will be more than $0.14 in Q2 2007).
Therefore the comparison will be favorable, even if sequential growth is minimal. But as nicknite20 said, it can be anything between 1% and 49% (for the gaming software unit).
I'll keep holding GIGM.
Everything seems on track with GIGM, I believe the stock will be at new highs soon. I'll keep holding GIGM.
Yahoo Finance has the following at GIGM's summary:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37831;image)
Reuters says the company sees lower Q2 sequential revenue. Not true. What they said was that they see revenues for a specific unit to grow less on a sequential basis. Well, growth in Q1 2007 from Q4 2006 for that unit was 50%, so less growth can still be an enormous QoQ figure.
There are many interesting issues at the 1st quarter conference call, today let me highlight the following one:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37833;image)
All companies in the online gaming space want to monetize a Mahjong online game, but GIGM seems to be very close to it. Mahjong is a huge game for Asians, they're always playing it, even my brother, who lived in Macao for 6 months and now has a Chinese girlfriend here in Portugal plays it regularly.
nicknite20 talked about $4 Mahjong, I wonder where he get that pricing information. nicknite20, do you have a link or copy/paste for this info? Thanks a lot!
Another important issue is how margin was reduced in Q1 2007 because of the heavy promotion for Hellgate: London:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37835;image)
I still need to study what's GIGM share of this highly anticipated game, but a clue is the game's website for the Asian region: http://hellgate.iahgames.com/
At the bottom there's the Infocomm Asia holdings logo, where GIGM is the majority shareholder with 30% equity interest:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37836;image)
Plenty of reasons to keep holding GIGM with strong hands, clearly, the best is yet to come.
David,
I wasnt referring to 4$ Mahjong..but real money mahjong in generla (Mahjong 4(for) $)
Sorry abt the confusion.
Nick
Quote from: nicknite20 on June 10, 2007, 11:26:00 PM
David,
I wasnt referring to 4$ Mahjong..but real money mahjong in generla (Mahjong 4(for) $)
Sorry abt the confusion.
Nick
Ah, ok, here in Europe we don't usually use numbers for letters, except U2 ;D
GIGM is one of the most interesting companies, but today I've spent a lot of time with MSI's update, so let me just say that I'll keep holding GIGM.
For those that are still out of this stock, this is the perfect time for going in, it's on the lower part of the ascending tunnel...next step, over 16$
Support at $14.15
fyi:
GigaMedia takes up 16% stake in Taiwan game firm Softstar
Softstar Entertainment, a developer of online games in Taiwan, on June 11 announced that GigaMedia, a Taiwan-based provider of broadband Internet-based services and content, has underwritten all of its 10 million new preferred shares issued to raise additional capital, to become a new shareholder with a stake of about 16%. The preferred shares are at a par value of NT$10 and were sold at NT$6 per share, Softstar indicated. Since NASDAQ-listed GigaMedia has set up joint ventures in China and Southeast Asia, the investment is expected to help Softstar further tap overseas markets, Softstar indicated.
http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20070612PD203.html
Quote from: la-onda on June 13, 2007, 05:25:39 AM
fyi:
GigaMedia takes up 16% stake in Taiwan game firm Softstar
Softstar Entertainment, a developer of online games in Taiwan, on June 11 announced that GigaMedia, a Taiwan-based provider of broadband Internet-based services and content, has underwritten all of its 10 million new preferred shares issued to raise additional capital, to become a new shareholder with a stake of about 16%. The preferred shares are at a par value of NT$10 and were sold at NT$6 per share, Softstar indicated. Since NASDAQ-listed GigaMedia has set up joint ventures in China and Southeast Asia, the investment is expected to help Softstar further tap overseas markets, Softstar indicated.
http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20070612PD203.html
GIGM continues to expand, thanks for posting the news la-onda :)
The stock finally touched its key ascending support level today. Since today was a very positive day for the general market and GIGM traded down, perhaps today marked the point of "no more hope" for weak hand holders, and the stock made the low right at support.
But this is just short term mambo jumbo. Longer term GIGM's fundamentals have nowhere to go but up, because many of the company's big investments still aren't contributing to the top and bottom line.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM has been showing relative weakness over the last couple of days. But I don't give much credit to these short term factors, or else I would be flipping stocks madly, because these indications are always changing.
I think that GIGM continues to be influenced by misinterpretation of Q2 guidance, with people thinking "lower sequential revenues, due to seasonality", instead of "lower growth on a sequential basis than in Q1 2007 over Q4 2006".
Slower growth is a lot different than "sequential decline", especially when the slower growth is compared to a 50% QoQ growth.
Everything is setting up for a positive surprise when the company releases Q2 earnings in August. I'll keep holding GIGM.
I think you may not have to wait that long..(till earnings to see some strength)..GIGM is usually strong after options expiry. We should be back above 15 on Monday :)
Quote from: la-onda on February 07, 2007, 09:47:08 PM
you are still holding setravis?
Yes, still holding.......sorry for the late reply :-[, pressed for time these days.
I would try to buy in on any weakness.
The "Big Boys" are trying to take this one down!
If you have the time and some loose change, Jump on this one for the ride up,
Just look at NCTY (The9 LTD) the closest competator to GIGM.
GIGM Should be there soon.
52wk Range: 6.89 - 16.42
Volume: 1,353,180
Avg Vol (3m): 1,110,730
Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
Last Price Quote is:
-0.36%below 13-day MA
1.00%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 2
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $741.82
P/E Ratio: 24.89
PEG Ratio: 0.565
Next Earnings: 08/07/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
Also listed is the 3 Year chart on both stocks.......
Quote from: nicknite20 on June 16, 2007, 10:54:19 AM
I think you may not have to wait that long..(till earnings to see some strength)..GIGM is usually strong after options expiry. We should be back above 15 on Monday :)
Sounds good nicknite20, nice comeback after the lower open on Friday. As one can see on the chart below GIGM was right at its ascending support level, and it reacted positively to that support area, on volume above average.
As one can read on this thread and the latest earnings press release, most of GIGM's investments, mainly in the Asian Games division, are still about to start producing serious revenues and profits. For example, Hellgate: London, to be launched in October 30, 2007, can be a huge hit.
If we consider that The9 (NCTY), another Chinese online gaming company, only has one game and is valued by the market at $1.1 B, we can see that this game alone may more than double GIGM's value, which currently is just $762 M.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
GIGM was up yesterday, down today ... it actually closed just a bit below the medium term ascending trendline on the chart below. However, GIGM is one of the stock's I have more confidence in the Main Portfolio, and I'm going to stick with it whatever happens to the stock price.
No 15 today..but oh well..will soon present a buying opp if this goes any lower.
Missed this episode of fast money..check out the comment on the 2min mark..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHr6MKDtybo&mode=related&search=
Quote from: nicknite20 on June 18, 2007, 10:11:24 PM
No 15 today..but oh well..will soon present a buying opp if this goes any lower.
Missed this episode of fast money..check out the comment on the 2min mark..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHr6MKDtybo&mode=related&search=
Stopped right at support today, good chance to get in tomorrow for a long term hold.
Quote from: yukiii on June 19, 2007, 12:37:13 AM
Quote from: nicknite20 on June 18, 2007, 10:11:24 PM
No 15 today..but oh well..will soon present a buying opp if this goes any lower.
Missed this episode of fast money..check out the comment on the 2min mark..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHr6MKDtybo&mode=related&search=
Stopped right at support today, good chance to get in tomorrow for a long term hold.
Picked up some shares today $14.15 back in.
Is there any progress on Yukiii have a place for his on portfolio?
My investment strategy is similar. I don't invest in all 15 stocks in the on fire portfolio, but invest in the top ones based on my own analysis, while using David's research as a basis. I haven't always been invested in david's 5 top performing stocks, but this startegy has stopped me from investing in the a lot of the biggest losers in the portfolio and has outperformed the 3 stocks portfolio. I am not trying to knock David. He is doing a great job, without his analysis, and suggestions I would have never found some of the bigger winners I have. I think it is best to use David's analysis and suggestions as a guide and make investment decisons on your own.
QuoteIs there any progress on Yukiii have a place for his on portfolio?
Yes, Ramsburg needs to make a few technical tweaks (or yukiii could accidentally delete www.3stocksonfire.org from the Earth), but I guess a couple of weeks from now everything will be ready. I also need to discuss details with yukiii ... I don't know if he has the will power to do this, it takes a lot of effort and especially a lot of nerve to show up when things go south. I can do it because I have eight years of experience doing similar jobs.
Anyway, we'll set up things for him, he'll then take the chance if he wants to. No problem if he opts not to do it.
QuoteMy investment strategy is similar. I don't invest in all 15 stocks in the on fire portfolio, but invest in the top ones based on my own analysis, while using David's research as a basis. I haven't always been invested in david's 5 top performing stocks, but this startegy has stopped me from investing in the a lot of the biggest losers in the portfolio and has outperformed the 3 stocks portfolio. I am not trying to knock David. He is doing a great job, without his analysis, and suggestions I would have never found some of the bigger winners I have. I think it is best to use David's analysis and suggestions as a guide and make investment decisons on your own.
Thanks for your kind words eggman11, I guess most people use the service that way. I'm glad if you can beat the Main Portfolio's return, which is up 18.4% so far in 2007. I'm quite pleased with the results and I believe we're on track for a 30-40% year which is my long term objective. But of course, if you can do better by outsmarting which picks are the best or by timing them, sounds great by me.
Another issue are the valuable experiences I believe one gets here. I think I'm able to explain why I buy, hold or sell, so one can learn from my mistakes and successes. I also learn from what you guys disclose about your strategies and actual experiences. So thanks a lot for your continuous support!
Quote from: David Randolph on June 19, 2007, 04:48:40 PM
I don't know if he has the will power to do this, it takes a lot of effort and especially a lot of nerve to show up when things go south. I can do it because I have eight years of experience doing similar jobs.
Yep, you're doing a great job David, day after day ... :)
Quote from: David Randolph on June 19, 2007, 04:48:40 PM
QuoteIs there any progress on Yukiii have a place for his on portfolio?
Yes, Ramsburg needs to make a few technical tweaks (or yukiii could accidentally delete www.3stocksonfire.org from the Earth), but I guess a couple of weeks from now everything will be ready. I also need to discuss details with yukiii ... I don't know if he has the will power to do this, it takes a lot of effort and especially a lot of nerve to show up when things go south. I can do it because I have eight years of experience doing similar jobs.
Anyway, we'll set up things for him, he'll then take the chance if he wants to. No problem if he opts not to do it.
QuoteMy investment strategy is similar. I don't invest in all 15 stocks in the on fire portfolio, but invest in the top ones based on my own analysis, while using David's research as a basis. I haven't always been invested in david's 5 top performing stocks, but this startegy has stopped me from investing in the a lot of the biggest losers in the portfolio and has outperformed the 3 stocks portfolio. I am not trying to knock David. He is doing a great job, without his analysis, and suggestions I would have never found some of the bigger winners I have. I think it is best to use David's analysis and suggestions as a guide and make investment decisons on your own.
Thanks for your kind words eggman11, I guess most people use the service that way. I'm glad if you can beat the Main Portfolio's return, which is up 18.4% so far in 2007. I'm quite pleased with the results and I believe we're on track for a 30-40% year which is my long term objective. But of course, if you can do better by outsmarting which picks are the best or by timing them, sounds great by me.
Another issue are the valuable experiences I believe one gets here. I think I'm able to explain why I buy, hold or sell, so one can learn from my mistakes and successes. I also learn from what you guys disclose about your strategies and actual experiences. So thanks a lot for your continuous support!
David, we basically have the same ideas on investing, I would just take some of your picks and time them with sector picks and some core picks.
Like right now I have still have ICOC, GIGM and TBSI,and PZZ,TWIN, SIMO, WPCS, EGO, Core KYE APB MGUand DSF
Watch list CKSW and AKRX
David, just wanted to let you know what a GREAT job you're doing! ;D This is by far the toughest job out there! Keep up the great work! You have many supporters!
Mbaugh
Yea i think you're doing a great job David! keep it up!
Quote from: mbaugh on June 19, 2007, 11:15:34 PM
David, just wanted to let you know what a GREAT job you're doing! ;D This is by far the toughest job out there! Keep up the great work! You have many supporters!
Mbaugh
Quote from: kpunarc on June 19, 2007, 11:39:10 PM
Yea i think you're doing a great job David! keep it up!
Thanks for the words of incentive mbaugh and kpunarc :)
QuoteDavid, we basically have the same ideas on investing, I would just take some of your picks and time them with sector picks and some core picks.
Like right now I have still have ICOC, GIGM and TBSI,and PZZ,TWIN, SIMO, WPCS, EGO, Core KYE APB MGUand DSF
Watch list CKSW and AKRX
So you own TBSI now? The last time I saw you talking about it you had been stopped out. And GIGM? Stopped on Monday, back in on Tuesday? Excuse me, but your hands are trembling ... and what about those shorts in the general market a week ago? Never heard of them again ...
Anyway, I don't want to mess with you, just learn and help you. The way I see it you just think too much, squeezing every piece of information and receiving inputs from many sides, getting conflicting information. Sometimes you sell because you think the general market will go down, but then you buy because you like the specifics of the stock. Sometimes you like the fundamentals, but because Cramer talked about it, or because guys at the message boards pumped it, you don't like the stock anymore, like that has anything to do with the fundamentals. In the end what you get is a lot of work, a lot of trades, and not an above average long term performance. Of course, when your hand is hot, you make a lot of money. But that never lasts.
Maybe you just need action, so you consider a lot of information coming from all sides as an excuse to do something, or else, where's the fun? Because, even though you may see things clearly, you can't sit tight.
Just my thoughts on what I see from your experiences. I have similar experiences too. Thanks a lot for sharing, we're all learning here.
As for GIGM, I know the stock closed at bit below the ascending support, but the really important technical level is $13.79 on close. But I have no doubts that fundamentals are very attractive, so I'll keep holding GIGM.
Just don't like 8% swings, you still have not recovered from the last one and I am one step ahead.
I usually hedge my portfolio when the market is overbought and sell 2 or 3 stocks and keep the rest.
It works for me instead of going from 23% to 13% back to 18% you never know were you will end up.
If the market went down for 2 weeks you would probable be down to 8% and I would lose around 1 %.
I don't see your logic.
I know you did not get this portfolio up to 300% this way..................... 361 trades in 1 1/2 years
Anyways futures are up should be a good open, will grab some european shares at the open before they pop also SMCI looks good ..........
QuoteI don't see your logic.
I see that you don't see. Good luck with your trading.
GIGM rose one cent in today's session, which wasn't bad, considering the 1.4% drop in the general market.
What I love about GIGM is the fact that even though the recent past is great, the future seems even better.
Let's take Hellgate London online game for example (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellgate:_London). There's controversy about the pricing structure of the game, but the latest interviews hint at a $9.95 monthly fee to get the game's elite status. I think this can be a huge success and revenue driver for GIGM. The company is investing aggressively in its marketing:
«Increased expenses in the first quarter, primarily related to the initial marketing launch of Hellgate: London, resulted in a lower operating margin and net income in the period.»
And look at what management said about it over the conference call:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38250;image)
These initiatives already contributed to expenses, but not to revenues or profits. When the game gets to the commercial phase, revenue and profit can only expand ... imagine the net profit margin of this business.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
FYI from yahoo boards
Spoke to Brad Miller (35 Ratings)
21-Jun-07 06:15 am
Conclusion: This sinking ship is in reality a "NUCLEAR SUBMARINE".
I called last night at 12:00am, I was surprised he remembered my name since it has been 2 years since I last asked questions about the health of GIGM.
So here it is,
Q: Is Carmen Media Group a dead deal????
Brad replied that it is still active and as a software provider they have delievered the product, M4$, and it is up to CMG to release.
Q: Is there a time limit on how long they, CMG, can hold out M4$ since they hold a 90 day exclusivity????
Brad replied that AW is out of the country and he would be more able to answer the technicalities of the contract agreement w/ CMG.
Q: Is UIM deal for M4$ as good as EP is for both GIGM & UIM.
Brad replied that UIM has a great working relationship w/ GIGM and are both looking forward to the M4$ launch. Also he added that GIGM has several license agreements in place for M4$. Also AW is very excited about Packino and other Japanese games and the possibilities of growth from these games.
Legal issues limited his ability to discuss in detail but the overall phone call was better than I expected. It seems that 2007 is the setup year for GIGM and 2008 is the major growth year for GIGM.
Also discussed and I was surprised was HG:L.
Q: How is HG:L doing and can you tell me about a rumor of a hacker gaining access into HG:L??????
Brad replied that HG:L is expect to launch and it was delayed several times before. He was also very up and hyped about HG:L, graphics and storyline to be better than WOW.
Q: WOW is NCTY only source of revenue and you expect HG:L to be better than WOW????
He is aware of WOW and the revenue it brings NCTY and he is excited what HG:L can bring to GIGM.
I thanked him for mgmt efforts and the direction GIGM has taken from the days of 2003.
I also reminded him that many investors, yahoo message board, want heads to roll for the fiasco of CMG but he replied that once all the programs are set in place they will all produce nicely especially the games geared for the Japanese market. Each time the issue of the Japanese games came to question he referred to AW and his efforts and pride in that area.
That in a nutshell is my conversation w/ Brad Miller head of Investor Relations for GIGM.
So once again my conclusion is to load the boat on this one and reap the benefits later.
I see what GIGM is up to. Because of some misleading reports, expectations for Q2 are pretty low.
When Q2 results are actually released they will produce a positive surprise that will probably make the stock gap up to a new all time high. Here's one more reason for this to be the outcome:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38348;image)
Technically the stock is breaking down, but I'm still winning roughly 10%. My hands are very strong on GIGM, I'll keep holding whatever happens.
Support $13.28 bought some more here.
when's Q2 reports due?
help me out on this...but GIGM's chart looks a lot like SILC's...
I was thinking exctly the same... :-\
Strongly considering to step out of GIGM too today.
Amarens
Looks like GIGM has been trading in this ascending channel for over a year now. It may go down quickly to touch the support and then rebound or trade sideways until the earnings announcement.
I agree, that part of the fundamental strategy must be consideration of the technicals. We cannot possibly outsmart the market even if we think we know something. Perhaps not all big investors have the patience as we think they should, so they move moeny in and out of a stock. GIGM looks attractive, but technically weak short term.
New short information just released
(http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/6670/untitled2kx6.png)
Getting close to the 200 MA, will double up in the low 12's if we get there.
Risk reward looks good here. $1 down or $7 up.
Quote from: Amarens on June 26, 2007, 09:03:57 AM
I was thinking exctly the same... :-\
Strongly considering to step out of GIGM too today.
Amarens
Hi Amarens, I hope you didn't sell out GIGM. I think the case is different from SILC's, there's a lot more visibility here.
Anyway, the chart looks short term bearish.
Given the fundamental landscape that I've exposed on this thread, I strongly believe the best is yet to come on GIGM. My fundamental assessment doesn't rely just on past trends (as with SILC), but also on the knowing of new products and services that are about to be released, like Hellgate London, Mahjong for money, Japanese games, etc.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
Today I've learned from what I saw happening in VPHM that the market knows nothing about the future. Many times technical breakdowns are meaningless.
GIGM breaking down below $13.79 didn't meant anything for the long term fundamentals of the company or to how high it will be, say, 6 months from now.
Nice come back today. I'll keep holding GIGM with strong hands.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 27, 2007, 04:39:25 AM
Hi Amarens, I hope you didn't sell out GIGM. I think the case is different from SILC's, there's a lot more visibility here.
Hi David,
I did not get out. I am looking and thinking of a way that we do not go through these big losses. What short term fall is acceptable even though you have a long term view.
Interested to hear some opinions on that and succesrate. Anyone?
Amarens
I totally agree Amarens.
what short term fall is acceptable?
To me, SILC was not a clear cut "time to get out".
But David did see profits fall and to save them he felt he needed to get out.. But I did not have "profits" so I should have asked his opinion about staying in, but his opinion was the stock could go down more. If no one can guess the future then why not continue to have strong hands in a good company? His valuation model is for 3 YEARS. So long term is for.......how long??
These small cap companies make it difficult to hold long term. If we are dealing with large cap, long term is much easier. Most of the time, large cap companies are more stable. I guess that is the risk we take.
I have weak hands for long term hold after that stint. If you have profits, take the profit!
I would love to see David do quick trades and other trades for long term.
Just my small opinion. I am sure David will be here to answer your question and growl over my thought of "quick" trades. hehe
Hello Everybody
Im new premium member. GIGM 200 day MA is at 12.12. I hope it goes down a little bit more so I can buy... maybe next week ;)
GIGM had good Support at he 200 day MA in the past and support at the green line ... probably good buying opportunity here. I hope so...
Very nice analysis from David.
Cheers, Engin
GIGM: Shares Subject of Buyout Rumor
Monday , July 02, 2007 11:10ET
GigaMedia Limited (GIGM) shares, up 2.5%, are spiking on a leverage buyout rumor. There was no confirmation on the rumor.
http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.e3ac32e0f37802207c93c1fe3714d17c3396bcb23a75c316ebae78efc4adf904
GIGM broke down key technical support areas, like the ascending trendline and the $13.79 horizontal support. But I've held the stock anyway, because I'm very confident about the fundamental landscape and that the company/stock will be worth a lot more in the future.
So, it is about time for the chart to turn bullish again. For that to happen GIGM needs to close above its short term descending trendline (tomorrow at $13.52) and back above the $13.79 level on close.
I expect this to happen before the next earnings release, which will probably be around mid August.
I'll keep on holding GIGM.
QuoteFor that to happen GIGM needs to close above its short term descending trendline (tomorrow at $13.52) and back above the $13.79 level on close.
Not yet, as GIGM closed at $13.43. But since I have no doubts that Q2 2007 will present a positive surprise (many people think there will be a sequential decline in revenues due to seasonality), I expect the stock to climb back up $13.79 on close and challenge the highs at $16.42 sooner rather than later.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
As we can see on the chart below, GIGM is going through one of those boring periods (the fourth in roughly 18 months), where the stock makes us sick by not going anywhere or even going down. However, those weak periods didn't prevent GIGM from rising 300%, from $4 to $16, as fundamentals kept improving.
I expect the next 18 months to resemble the past 18 months and GIGM to be 300% higher than what it is now.
I'll patiently continue holding GIGM though all the ups and downs.
The market hasn't been treating GIGM well over the past few weeks, but I believe this is just due to the technicals that have turned short term bearish, not a long term fundamental issue.
I read parts of the 155 pages Form 20-F GIGM filed with the SEC in June 29th (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1105101/000114554907001175/h01293e20vf.htm), 2007, and of course, like with any other company, there are several risks and opportunities.
It's really impossible to get to any conclusion on what to do by studying that entire report, so I'm going to turn to my valuation model:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38842;image)
According to my view of the fundamentals:
1) GIGM won't increase its share count by more than 3% a year over the next three years;
2) GIGM's revenues will rise at least 50% per year over the next three years;
3) The company's net profit margin will expand from 32.66% to 40%, like it happens with other online gaming companies;
4) The company will trade at the Internet Software & Services industry average valuation of 38 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=GIGM) (37.05 in the valuation model because it is not updated)
And this means the stock is fundamentally very attractive. Until I believe this will be the future fundamental landscape I'll continue holding GIGM, despite the technical weakness, which happened in the past as we've seen, and didn't prevent GIGM from rising 300% over the last 18 months.
Nice 6.25% rally for GIGM, making a bullish breakout of its short term resistance level. Now the stock just needs to close above $13.79 (one cent above today's close) to show everybody willing to see that the bearish technical breakdown we've had, was false!
As I've written over several updates, I'm pretty much sure that the company will surprise the market on the upside when it reports its second quarter results, because many investors were led to believe there will be a sequential revenue decline when that's not the case, there will be just a lower rate of growth for its gaming software unit (which grew 50% sequentially in the previous quarter).
I'll keep on holding GIGM.
From yesterday's update:
QuoteNice 6.25% rally for GIGM, making a bullish breakout of its short term resistance level. Now the stock just needs to close above $13.79 (one cent above today's close) to show everybody willing to see that the bearish technical breakdown we've had, was false!
Well, GIGM was able to close at $13.80, not bad, but not decisive from a technical standpoint either. Let's see what the next few days market action brings.
It would be nice to have GIGM near the highs when it reports 2nd quarter earnings, because that way it could make a powerful breakaway gap.
I'll continue holding GIGM.
Check out the new ad for Hellgate on youtube. ;D ;D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyBKtsfDq5k
Don't know about the dancing girls though........ouch!
Quote from: dmdray69 on July 15, 2007, 09:05:28 PM
Check out the new ad for Hellgate on youtube. ;D ;D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyBKtsfDq5k
Don't know about the dancing girls though........ouch!
Funny video dmdray :)
If we take into account what one single online game did for companies like NCTY (which is worth $1.45 B - roughly double the value of GIGM), we see that Hellgate: London has the potential to change GIGM's value completely.
Will that happen or not? Nobody knows, but right now GIGM is priced like Hellgate: London (and other of the company's initiatives) not even exists, therefore I consider the stock extremely attractive from a fundamental standpoint and I'll keep holding.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 17, 2007, 06:06:35 AM
Quote from: dmdray69 on July 15, 2007, 09:05:28 PM
Check out the new ad for Hellgate on youtube. ;D ;D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyBKtsfDq5k
Don't know about the dancing girls though........ouch!
Funny video dmdray :)
If we take into account what one single online game did for companies like NCTY (which is worth $1.45 B - roughly double the value of GIGM), we see that Hellgate: London has the potential to change GIGM's value completely.
Will that happen or not? Nobody knows, but right now GIGM is priced like Hellgate: London (and other of the company's initiatives) not even exists, therefore I consider the stock extremely attractive from a fundamental standpoint and I'll keep holding.
Gotta admit that game does look awesome!
As for the dancing girls, that is just the way things get promoted in Asia ;)
QuoteGotta admit that game does look awesome!
As for the dancing girls, that is just the way things get promoted in Asia ;)
Yeah, you know about Asia Tokyopua :)
Technically GIGM made today what technicians call a "retest", which happens when a stock comes back down to touch a support level, which previously worked as a resistance.
Fundamentally there's no way to go but up.
GIGM responded to the technical support level with a 0.92% rise today. The technical picture will get much clearer when/if the stock closes back above the key $13.8 resistance level.
Last year the company reported second quarter earnings in August 10th, so probably it will report at around that date. I'm confident it will positively surprise people.
GIGM touched support again on Friday. I would like to have the stock above $13.79 before the earnings release, but don't know if that's going to happen or not. But I expect results to be above expectations, so definitely after results GIGM should make a bullish breakout.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
GIGM should have plenty of time to test its long-term ascending support before turning in the next bull leg.
Quote from: berloga on July 23, 2007, 03:51:11 PM
GIGM should have plenty of time to test its long-term ascending support before turning in the next bull leg.
That's a nice chart berloga, and it can be a plausible explanation for what is happening with GIGM in technical terms. In my chart the stock gave us a bearish technical signal today, as it closed below the key short term technical support of $13.79 on volume above average. It also closed right at the 200 days SMA, which usually works as a long term support level.
From a fundamental standpoint, the only risk I see is European countries banning online gambling and money transfers from banks and credit cards to that type of websites. That would have a significant material impact in GIGM's revenues and earnings over the short and medium term. But I don't think that's going to happen, at least, not in the near future.
I'll attribute the short term weakness to "technical noise" ... also, there was some misleading bearish information when the company gave its 2nd quarter guidance.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
I could be wrong,but all these gaming stocks,snda,gigm,and ntes were down,maybe in sympathy with tomo,which reported earnings.
Quote from: soxguy on July 23, 2007, 08:12:56 PM
I could be wrong,but all these gaming stocks,snda,gigm,and ntes were down,maybe in sympathy with tomo,which reported earnings.
I don't think that's the reason because TOMO isn't an online gaming company, it is related to wireless internet.
I don't see the reason why GIGM is declining so sharply, I mean, other than technical reasons.
Someone wrote a post on Yahoo that might explain the fall (http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?m=tm&bn=7770&tid=179160&mid=179207&tof=1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1), it seems that regulatory concerns are preventing the company from launching Mahjong for money, even though the company doesn't allow Americans to play (damn politicians).
The stock isn't trading on fundamentals like revenues and profits, but on "the law may hurt the company". I think that Gigamedia, having its operations mainly in Europe and Asia, wont be hurt by the law ... moreover, their business is legitimate, it just needs to be taxed in a proper and innovative way.
I know the stock is breaking down sharply and I've let a profit turn into a loss (which is always a bad idea), but I don't want to sell now when I'm quite convinced that 2nd quarter revenues and EPS will beat expectations by a wide margin. And I love the long term prospects of the company.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
After what I saw happening today on JAKK, a stock that was near all time highs reporting bad quarterly numbers, it wouldn't surprise me to see GIGM, a stock that is technically breaking down, shooting up 15% on a positive earnings surprise.
This has been my expectation for this quarter all along, ever since the company gave us that misinterpreted guidance, saying there would be a sequential decline in growth in one business unit (decline from the previous 50% sequential growth), and then reports by Reuters and others saying "the company expects a sequential decline in revenues due to seasonality".
Sequential decline in in growth is obviously different from "sequential decline". I've checked my views with the company and received an e-mail from investor relations saying "GIGM expects a sequential decline in the growth rate ..."
I'll continue holding GIGM.
GIGM went down 6.2% yesterday as people sold everything, good or bad. Technically the stock touched the $10.94 horizontal support and bounced a bit. I don't think it will fall much more from this level, because the fundamental value is a lot higher in my view. Also the QQQQ had a very, very strong reversal candlestick and I remain a long term bull in the general market.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term, despite the setback.
Jul 26, 2007 (Nelson's Broker Summaries via COMTEX) --
Company: GIGAMEDIA LTD
Consensus Recommendation: BUY
(Strong Buy: 0, Buy: 2, Hold: 0, Underperform: 0, Sell: 0)
Quarter Consensus Estimate [Q3]: 0.16
FY Consensus Estimate [FY2007]: 0.63
Next FY Consensus Estimate [FY2008]: 0.87
Industry: TECHNOL/SOFTWARE
Estimates reported in USD
http://www.thomsonfinancial.com
Copyright 2007, Nelson Information, a Thomson Financial company
Thanks for those estimates kpunarc :)
So, GIGM is now trading at 12.6 times 2008 estimated EPS? And that $0.87 EPS estimate seems to low to me. A company growing revenues by more than 100% a year and trades at 12.6 times forward earnings? Can't be. But it is!
Yes, it is, but the market is inefficient, that's why we're allowed to profit.
The market doesn't know the future, and GIGM is trading at a deep discount when we consider its fundamental trends and prospects. No economic slowdown of any shape can harm GIGM in my view, only the law could harm it. But I don't think that's going to happen in Europe or SouthEast Asia, there's more likelihood of the US changing its law than the other way around, in my view.
I'll keep holding GIGM, despite the short term weakness ... this has happened in the past too (for example, between May and June 2006 GIGM fell 42%), and the stock is still up five fold in two years or so. Today's potential from a fundamental standpoint is as high as it has ever been.
TAIPEI, Taiwan, July 30, 2007 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --
GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM) will report the
Company's second-quarter 2007 financial results on Tuesday, August 14, 2007
before the market opens.
Management will hold an investor webcast on
August 14, 2007 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern
Daylight Time, which is 8:00 p.m. Taipei/Hong Kong Time on August 14, 2007, to
discuss the Company's second-quarter 2007 performance. A link to the live and
archived webcast will be available at http://www.gigamedia.com.tw .
About GigaMedia
GigaMedia Limited (Singapore registration number: 199905474H) is a major
provider of online entertainment software and services. GigaMedia develops and
licenses software for online gaming. GigaMedia also operates online games
businesses including FunTown, a leading Asian casual games portal in Taiwan and
the world's largest online MahJong game site in terms of revenue, and T2CN, a
leading online casual sports game operator in China. GigaMedia also operates a
broadband ISP providing Internet access services to consumers and corporate
subscribers in Taiwan. More information on GigaMedia can be obtained from
http://www.gigamedia.com.tw .
The statements included above and elsewhere in this press release that are not
historical in nature are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the
"safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of
1995. GigaMedia cautions readers that forward-looking statements are based on
the Company's current expectations and involve a number of risks and
uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in such
forward-looking statements. Information as to certain factors that could cause
actual results to vary can be found in GigaMedia's Annual Report on Form 20-F
filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2007.
For further information contact:
Brad Miller, Investor Relations Director
Tel: +886-2-3518-1107
Email:
[email protected]SOURCE GigaMedia Limited
Thanks for posting the news on GIGM kpunarc :)
I really can't explain why GIGM was down so much over the short term and I believe the second quarter earnings will positively surprise most people, because, as we've been discussing, many people think there will be a sequential revenue decline and clearly that won't be the case.
GIGM is now trading at 12.5 times 2008 EPS estimate, which is an insult for a company growing revenues and profits by about 100% a year.
I don't care what the market thinks, I think by myself and see GIGM at $50 plus in late 2009 and I'll keep on holding the stock with strong hands.
Another down day for GIGM ... I can't wait for the 2nd quarter results, to see if they stop the bleeding and start putting the stock where it should be, certainly above $20.
GIGM is now trading at 12.3 times 2008 estimated EPS, but I think the company will probably earn more than the average estimate of $0.87 EPS in 2008.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
GigaMedia Limited Earnings Conference Call (Q2 2007)
Scheduled to start Tue, Aug 14, 2007, 8:00 am Eastern
http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/3/84163.html (http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/3/84163.html)
GigaMedia Names Thomas Hui President and Chief Operating OfficerTAIPEI, Taiwan, Aug 01, 2007 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --
GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM) today announced
the appointment of Thomas Hui as President and Chief Operating Officer of the
Company with immediate effect.
Mr. Hui has served as the Chief Financial Officer of the Company for the past
three years -- and will continue to oversee the Company's financial functions in
an interim capacity until the appointment of his replacement.
"Thomas is a multi-talented leader who has been instrumental in the
transformation and growth of GigaMedia," stated CEO Arthur Wang. "As President,
we are confident Thomas will drive even greater growth in our online
entertainment businesses."
Mr. Hui joined the Company three years ago following a distinguished career at
the global investment bank Goldman Sachs, where he was Executive Director. At
Goldman Sachs, Mr. Hui was responsible for a broad range of mergers and
acquisitions and financing transactions. Prior to Goldman Sachs, Mr. Hui worked
as an investment banker at Merrill Lynch and as a management consultant at
McKinsey & Company, both in Hong Kong.
"The President and COO positions are newly created, strengthening the senior
management at GigaMedia, enabling us to further exploit the enormous market
opportunities before us," explained CEO Arthur Wang.
About GigaMedia
GigaMedia Limited (Singapore registration number: 199905474H) is a major
provider of online entertainment software and services. GigaMedia develops and
licenses software for online gaming. GigaMedia also operates online games
businesses including FunTown, a leading Asian casual games portal in Taiwan and
the world's largest online MahJong game site in terms of revenue, and T2CN, a
leading online casual sports game operator in China. More information on
GigaMedia can be obtained from www.gigamedia.com.tw .
The statements included above and elsewhere in this press release that are not
historical in nature are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the
"safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of
1995. GigaMedia cautions readers that forward-looking statements are based on
the Company's current expectations and involve a number of risks and
uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in such
forward-looking statements. Information as to certain factors that could cause
actual results to vary can be found in GigaMedia's Annual Report on Form 20-F
filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2007.
For further information contact:
Brad Miller
Investor Relations Director
Tel: +886-2-3518-1107
Email:
[email protected]SOURCE GigaMedia Limited
CONTACT: Brad Miller of GIGM, +886-2-3518-1107,
[email protected]URL: http://www.gigamedia.com.tw
http://www.prnewswire.com
www.prnewswire.com
Copyright (C) 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved
Hi David,
Havent been posting for a while..but have been following ur msgs on a daily basis..past few days have been painful..especially with this crazy action on GIGM. Fortunately ive had some spare cash and have almost doubled my position this week. Hopefully we see a run up into the earnings..
Nick
Quote from: nicknite20 on August 01, 2007, 10:45:03 PM
Hi David,
Havent been posting for a while..but have been following ur msgs on a daily basis..past few days have been painful..especially with this crazy action on GIGM. Fortunately ive had some spare cash and have almost doubled my position this week. Hopefully we see a run up into the earnings..
Nick
Might have to get some more shares myself, I got in at 13.2 and yeah, its been a bit tough, but I agree with David's comments. I am also impressed at the pedigree of the COO they brought in, an Executive Director from Goldman Sachs, that speaks volumes to me.
I'm now selling ACH and buying NVTL & some more GIGM.
Tokyo..im sure ur aware that Hui was previously the CFO..he's been with the co. for a while..
Quote from: nicknite20 on August 02, 2007, 11:27:03 PM
Tokyo..im sure ur aware that Hui was previously the CFO..he's been with the co. for a while..
Actually, didnt know that, thanks! Bad TokyoPUA (must do more DD)!
Time to go long ???
Great stock...beaten down...top small cap growth.
If earnings improve as expected, it should be a good entry point.
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-8.87%below 13-day MA
-19.24%below 50-day MA
RS Rating: 1
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Aug 14
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $551.59
P/E Ratio: 17.76
PEG Ratio: 0.4025
Next Earnings: 08/14/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
Friday's closing chart.......
I guess what's happening with GIGM is a multiple contraction. The stock is trading at 19.5 times 2006 EPS (but this EPS has some extraordinary income, so the trailing multiple is even higher), and that doesn't look cheap when one considers stock market history.
However, I expect GIGM to keep on growing very fast, since its business is totally independent of the economic cycle (unless the cycle is extremely severe, but I don't think that's going to be the case), in my view.
GIGM is now trading at 11.5 times the average 2008 EPS estimate of $0.86, but I think that, because of the company's pipeline of new services and products, there's a strong possibility of EPS being $1 or even more.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term, despite the short term adversity.
Man, GIGM getting taken to the cleaners yet again today. $9 should act as a rough support from the long term chart, but I do have to wonder what is going on.
Quote from: setravis on August 06, 2007, 09:22:12 AM
Time to go long ???
Great stock...beaten down...top small cap growth.
If earnings improve as expected, it should be a good entry point.
Went long this morning at average 9.2. I think we're at the high volume sell off which may denote the bottom. RSI hasn't been this low ever I think. If this can close near the open or even slightly below it would leave a nice long tail. That with the high volume looks nice on a chart after the long sell off from it's high's recently. If we get the "kangaroo" tail, AND tomorrow closes higher with strong volume, then I think we could be in for a nice bounce at least. But keep in mind earnings are next Tuesday.
It was looking good until about 1:00 pm eastern time but now its selling off again. We'll see where it closes.
Jason
fyi:
Casual Game Portal FunTown Stops Operation in China
Tue, Aug 7, 2007 Games
Casual game portal Funtown announced that it will stop its operation in mainland China starting from Aug 23. Formerly part of Acer Group, the Taiwan based casual game portal was acquired by Gigamedia (NASDAQ:GIGM) in 2006. Funtown China was launched in 2005 and currently offers 7 casual games including cards, pool and mahjong. Redline China believes the closing of FunTown China indicates the fierce competition in the casual games business, especially from competitors such as Tencent and Lianzhong, who benefit from a large variety of game offerings and an established player base.
http://www.redlinechina.com/main/?q=node/305
but
Key word was "mainland"
Hong Kong operations still active!
HK is 81.1% of FT traffic.
link:
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=funtown.com.hk
I have written an mail to IR for clarification! 8)
chart looks very bad :-X :'(
cheers
Oliver
(Michael, any comment from your side?)
Is everybody aware of this news: ???
http://www.redlinechina.com/main/?q=node/305
Casual Game Portal FunTown Stops Operation in China >:(
Tue, Aug 7, 2007 Games
Casual game portal Funtown announced that it will stop its operation in mainland China starting from Aug 23. Formerly part of Acer Group, the Taiwan based casual game portal was acquired by Gigamedia (NASDAQ:GIGM) in 2006. Funtown China was launched in 2005 and currently offers 7 casual games including cards, pool and mahjong. Redline China believes the closing of FunTown China indicates the fierce competition in the casual games business, especially from competitors such as Tencent and Lianzhong, who benefit from a large variety of game offerings and an established
I am out, but there is only small part of GIGM bussines in CHina FT , so it should be manipulation only to push shares much down:
Founded in 1998 by the Acer computer company, FunTown is based in Greater China, with offices in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Have some fun at FunTown China (www.funtown.com.cn), FunTown Hong Kong (www.funtown.com.hk) and FunTown Taiwan (www.funtown.com.tw).
http://casualgames.web-log.nl/casualgame...
Funtown.com.hk users come from these countries:
Hong Kong81.1%Macao16.8%Taiwan0.8%China0.7%Malaysia0.2%
More...
Hong Kong81.1%Macao16.8%Taiwan0.8%China0.7%Malaysia0.2%Canad a0.1%United States0.1%Other countries0.3%
Less...
Thanks for posting. It helps to explain the spiral down. :(
just fyi
GIGM IR ANSWER:Dear Oliver:
FunTown is merging its China operations with T2CN, a leading game portal in China and operator of the #1 online sports game in China, FreeStyle. Last month we acquired controlling interest in T2CN, which has over 57 million registered users in China. We now plan to add FunTown's #1 MahJong and other Asian games to T2CN's sports portal.
We are very excited about our prospects to continue growing our platform in China and building shareholder value, and we look forward to providing updates on our business shortly.
Best,
Brad-----Original Message-----
From: oliver
Sent: Wednesday, August 08, 2007 2:27 AM
To:
[email protected]Subject: Shareholder Request: GIGM Statement
Importance: High
Dear Mr. Miller,
as a shareholder I kindly ask you/GIGM to comment on the following new
published today:
Casual Game Portal FunTown Stops Operation in China
Tue, Aug 7, 2007 Games
Casual game portal Funtown announced that it will stop its operation in
mainland China starting from Aug 23. Formerly part of Acer Group, the
Taiwan based casual game portal was acquired by Gigamedia (NASDAQ:GIGM)
in 2006. Funtown China was launched in 2005 and currently offers 7
casual games including cards, pool and mahjong. Redline China believes
the closing of FunTown China indicates the fierce competition in the
casual games business, especially from competitors such as Tencent and
Lianzhong, who benefit from a large variety of game offerings and an
established player base.
link:
http://www.redlinechina.com/main/?q=node/305
There is a great uncertainty outside the investment community, a
clarification would be very helpful!
Thanks in advance for your answer
Oliver
(shareholder)
Nice breakout on the 30 minute chart with good volume. If it can hold a close above say 10 with good volume, that might help solidify a decent rebound for the near future. Of course any piece of news can kill a rebound. ;)
GIGM is moving up and it's a good buying opportunity. Motley Fool still rates it as a bargain stock and a good buy. David continues to hold it. As of this writing, it's up .93 today and hopefully it already hit bottom.
Marie
also Roth update available now:
GIGM GigaMedia: Misinformation creates compelling buying opportunity - Roth (10.50 +1.04)
Roth notes that Redlinechina.com reported earlier this week that FunTown (GIGM's casual game portal) will stop its operations in China on Aug 23rd due to fierce competition in the casual games business. The firm says that after speaking with mgmt they would like to clarify some confusion on this news. First, they say GIGM is NOT closing down its FunTown China operations, but rather merging its China operations with T2CN. They say the co plans to offer FunTown's play-for-fun MahJong and other casual games on the T2CN platform going forward. The firm would also like to note that the majority of FunTown's rev currently comes from Taiwan, NOT mainland China. They say the co only recently began offering FunTown games in China and the rev wasn't meaningful.
la-onda,
Thanks for the info but you we already knew that thanks to you!!!!!!!
Looks like you made mgmt realize that they had to get some things cleared up.
Thanks again and applaud.
Brad
Quote from: la-onda on August 08, 2007, 09:30:29 PM
also Roth update available now:
GIGM GigaMedia: Misinformation creates compelling buying opportunity - Roth (10.50 +1.04)
Roth notes that Redlinechina.com reported earlier this week that FunTown (GIGM's casual game portal) will stop its operations in China on Aug 23rd due to fierce competition in the casual games business. The firm says that after speaking with mgmt they would like to clarify some confusion on this news. First, they say GIGM is NOT closing down its FunTown China operations, but rather merging its China operations with T2CN. They say the co plans to offer FunTown's play-for-fun MahJong and other casual games on the T2CN platform going forward. The firm would also like to note that the majority of FunTown's rev currently comes from Taiwan, NOT mainland China. They say the co only recently began offering FunTown games in China and the rev wasn't meaningful.
Awesome work la-onda :)
So, it seems misinformation was taking GIGM down, and down a lot. I hope that now that the truth is being revealed, GIGM claws back up.
But the biggest misinformation of all was the one perpetuated by Reuters, saying management expected a sequential revenue drop. I expect this misinformation to also be dismantled when the company reports 2nd quarter earnings on August 14th.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
GIGM rebounded strongly to touch the $10.94 resistance level, prior support, on reports saying that it's not closing its Fun Town website due to competition, but it is instead merging it with T2CN.
However, the chart and the general market jitters didn't allow GIGM to sustain its gains by the end of the session.
Anyway, GIGM's business and growth is practically independent from the economic cycle and I expect the company's European business and SouthEast Asia initiatives to keep growing strongly.
The stock is quite cheap at current levels in my view. I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
Another nice comeback for GIGM today. This morning it was looking like a nasty candle day, but she came back in style. The day chart is looking good for a rebound continuation. Look at the nice breakout at the EOD and finish at the high of the day on the 5 min chart. Only thing I don't like is earnings coming up next week. If earnings were not for a few more weeks I think this bad boy could move up fast on momentum alone, but earnings make crazy things happen. Not sure what I'll do yet. ;)
Please take a minute to note phases marked with a 1 and a 2 on GIGM's chart below.
Phase 1 happened because despite delivering revenue and earnings above expectations in Q1 results, GIGM's management said the following:
«We expect second-quarter revenue growth on a percentage basis to be lower than the percentage growth achieved in the first quarter.»
And several analysts downgraded GIGM as a reaction to this statement, saying "there's seasonality in GIGM's business" and Reuters even wrote "GIGM expects lower sequential revenues".
I clarified this with GIGM's management and what they said was: "slower growth between Q1 2007 and Q2 2007, when compared to the growth we've had between Q4 2006 and Q1 2007". And the growth the Gaming Software Business unit had in Q1 2007 was:
«First-quarter revenues in the gaming software business increased 198 percent year-over-year to $26.3 million from $8.8 million and by 33 percent quarter-over-quarter from $19.8 million.»
So, "slower growth" necessarily means something between 1% and 32% revenue growth on a sequential basis. Never a sequential revenue decline as it was mistakenly reported.
As for the phase 2 decline, it appears that was because of the news release La-onda posted the other day:
«Casual game portal Funtown announced that it will stop its operation in
mainland China starting from Aug 23. Formerly part of Acer Group, the
Taiwan based casual game portal was acquired by Gigamedia (NASDAQ:GIGM)
in 2006. Funtown China was launched in 2005 and currently offers 7
casual games including cards, pool and mahjong. Redline China believes
the closing of FunTown China indicates the fierce competition in the
casual games business, especially from competitors such as Tencent and
Lianzhong, who benefit from a large variety of game offerings and an
established player base.»
Apparently this wasn't true, the company replied:
Quote from: la-onda on August 08, 2007, 09:30:29 PM
also Roth update available now:
GIGM GigaMedia: Misinformation creates compelling buying opportunity - Roth (10.50 +1.04)
Roth notes that Redlinechina.com reported earlier this week that FunTown (GIGM's casual game portal) will stop its operations in China on Aug 23rd due to fierce competition in the casual games business. The firm says that after speaking with mgmt they would like to clarify some confusion on this news. First, they say GIGM is NOT closing down its FunTown China operations, but rather merging its China operations with T2CN. They say the co plans to offer FunTown's play-for-fun MahJong and other casual games on the T2CN platform going forward. The firm would also like to note that the majority of FunTown's rev currently comes from Taiwan, NOT mainland China. They say the co only recently began offering FunTown games in China and the rev wasn't meaningful.
The stock now has the phase 2 decline to recover and if I'm right about the 2nd quarter numbers, it will also recover from the phase 1 decline, to trade at least at $16 before the year's end (the stock closed at $10.8 on Friday). If the 3rd and 4th quarters are also strong, with Hellgate: London and Majhong for money coming into the play, the stock may even climb towards $20 or more.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
Looks great! :D
GigaMedia Q2: Record Operating Results
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070814/hktu004.html?.v=61
Ray
GigaMedia beats by $0.02
Briefing.com - August 14, 2007 7:51 AM ET
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.17 per share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.15; revenues rose 11.1% year/year to $40.1 mln vs the $38 mln consensus. ''Second-quarter was another record for GigaMedia, with outstanding performance in every business unit,'' stated Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. ''More important, we expect even stronger growth in the second half and excellent momentum into 2008.''
I can't believe reporters continue to mislead investors, look at this from Briefing.com:
Quoterevenues rose 11.1% year/year to $40.1 mln vs the $38 mln consensus.
It's not "year/year", it is from the 1st quarter, sequential growth! Growth from the year ago levels was 88%!
Anyway, revenues and EPS were above expectations (while the stock was pricing in "weak numbers"), so we should have a big rally today. The stock is trading sharply higher on the pre-market.
As for the future, the CEO said the following:
''Second-quarter was another record for GigaMedia, with outstanding performance in every business unit,'' stated Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. ''More important,
we expect even stronger growth in the second half and excellent momentum into 2008.''
I'll write more analysis and the conference call highlights over the next update (or maybe still today), but I know I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term, the company has been beating my own expectations.
GIGM posted quarterly results this AM. Pre-market volume is high. Let's see how she does today. I've seen strange things happen after earnings released though. One time I saw BOOM bid way up on good earnings then sell off for a big loss on the day. However, BOOM had already ran up pre-earnings.
Here is GIGM earnings link on Yahoo! Finance
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070814/hktu004.html?.v=61
I don't usually do this but yesterday I decided to hold through earnings because I think this company is worth more than $11 and because I had a good entry and some buffer built in already. Hopefully I won't get punished.
:o
These headlines are confusing to the public!
TABLE-GigaMedia Q2 net income falls
Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:08AM EDT
Aug 14 (Reuters) - GIGAMEDIA LTD. (GIGM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) Latest Yr-ago qtr
(in $)
EPS (diluted) 0.17 0.18
Net ( million) 10.1 11.2
Total operating revenue ( million) 40.1 21.3
Reuters Estimates: EPS $0.15, revenue $38 million. --The company said its year-ago results included a one-time
disposal gain of about $7.0 million.
(Reporting by Bhaswati Mukhopadhyay in Bangalore)
...and it's also written by reuters. ...this would make this strike 2
The big volume spike of 4.57 million shares on 5/22 that started the current downtrend has now been exceeded and we are only halfway through the trading session ;) 4.61 million shares as of 11:44 am...
Great results..great CC, great prospects..great company :)
GIGM still looking strong. Moving up in this relentless market is a strong statement for GIGM's strength. Also had a close back above the 200 SMA. Volume was less than half of yesterday's but it was still much above average. May have some resistance near 13.
GIGM rose 4.4% yesterday, even though the S&P 500 fell 1.4%. This relative strength is a sign that investors believe GIGM can grow immensely even while they also believe the US may enter an economic recession in early 2008.
Anyway, the stock just recovered from the phase 2 decline marked on the chart, which was a complete non-sense, so investors not always know what they're doing. They were also wrong when selling after Q1 results and Q2 guidance misleading reports, so GIGM should at least recover towards $16 ASAP.
Beyond this recovery, there will be the future. And that couldn't be more promising than the one we have for GIGM, as you can read at my latest update or listening to the 2nd quarter earnings conference call.
Outstanding la-onda !
Great work you do here @ 3SOF...
Applaud !!! ;) :D ;D 8) You deserve a much larger Rating.......
Submitted with great respect !
thanks setravis, unfortunately my portfolio was hit hard (FRPT & VPHM & VPHM call options & MKRS).
There is still so much space to improve my trading.....
::) ::)
but hopefully we will keep up our good work to beat the Market in 2007 >:D >:D >:D
cheers from Singapore ;)
Oliver
la-onda, applaud - you sure do help to keep the site alive!
GIGM has made a comeback into the nice ascending long-term channel after being in detention room for a short while. :-*
My chart has different lines from berloga's, but we're both bullish on GIGM. On my chart the stock closed above its short term descending trendline but still couldn't close above the "key" $12.82 horizontal resistance level. Maybe today?
We'll see.
Fundamentally there's good visibility in the existing business and enormous potential in the pipeline.
I believe GIGM will close 2007 above $18.
Nothing new for GIGM today, I guess that technically the stock came off a bit to test its new support, prior resistance, given by the short term descending trendline.
A close above $12.82 would put the chart in line with the fundamental landscape. I expect this to happen briefly.
FunTown and T2CN had a remarkable improvement in Q2:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39824;image)
GIGM's management really knows how to integrate and grow a new business.
I'll keep holding GIGM.
La Onda I agree, great fundi's
but i am short here at 12.30 with a stop around 13 on big vol and a target of 11 to fill the gap
the 50ma proving resistence and the markets are not sure if they want to get back to raly mode.
a short technical play for me. Will be watching GIGM when markets stabilize and trend again (been in and out of gigm since 4.80, bummer is more out than in :)
Cheers joe
SWIM and WIND I feel also will fill gaps prior to the up trend... we will see
If the market stays on track I also believe GIGM will start running.
Today I increased my position
I issued a buy alert earlier this week on GIGM saying we should try to buy some shares on a pullback near the 200ma or around 12.45 for a solid entry. As my "crystal ball" enlightens me of buy points, i used my jedi mind powers from the depths of mount doom to force price to dip to a low of 12.40 during todays session to give a chance to buy before a rally followed to end the day up 2.85% closing at 12.98 , i filled a position as stated 12.45 ;) From a technical analysis standpoint this chart pattern is looking great as the 3 month down trend has been broken sparked by a bullish earnings call and now as of todays close price broke out of a bullish pennant continuation pattern suggesting further trending in favor of the bulls.
(http://**********.net/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/gigm6.gif)
Fundamentally as of todays closing price GIGM is looking very attractive and undervalued. Currently GIGM is trading at just 24x earnings while the industry is set at 33x earnings, along with a low forwards PE of just 15.09x GIGM has much room to run into the future to catch up with its growth in revenues and income. GIGM expects to report EPS of .86 for 2008 giving them a fair value price for 08′ of [.86eps X 33x industry average PE = 28.91 aka 122% gain from todays close] making GIGM look dirt cheap at these prices. I'm issuing a "STRONG BUY" with a short term price target of $15-$16/share.
(http://**********.net/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/gigm5.gif)
just fyi: GIGM: Short Interest DN 7.7% to 3.8M in Aug 2007
Friday , August 24, 2007 16:17ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 7.7% to 3,811,595 shares for the month ended mid-August, 2007.
SYMBOL JULY AUGUST CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
GIGM 4,129,487 3,811,595 -317,892 -7.70% 3
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,778,200, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest
&
GIGM: Jumps +2.93%; Vol +73%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Friday , August 24, 2007 16:22ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: GIGM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $12.61 $12.98 +2.93%
VOLUME 364,700 631,500 +73.16%
#TRADES 1,227 2,085 +69.93%
DAY-HI $12.70 $12.98 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $12.38 $12.38 N/A
chart:
Excellent!
Today, while not a huge % up day, in my opinion was a great victory for GIGM again. As I see it, here a few positives about today's action.
1) Touched the 200 sma which again acted as support, bounced and closed at the high of the day.
2) While volume was not huge on the daily chart, it did increase significantly in the last 45 minutes as it broke out of the intraday chart. See 5 min chart below.
3) Appears to be breaking out of a week and a half consolidation period.
4) Nearly breaking through the high twelve resistance area from late June/early July. See daily chart below.
I'm looking forward to this week. I think we'll see more gains. ;)
Here's a little technical update for GIGM:
Finally a breakout above the $12.82 resistance level !
GIGM is now back on track from a technical point of view, trading above some important levels, It busted the descending resistance line and the $12.82 horizontal reference, and it's above the ema-50 and ema-200. I see only $13.79 as the next resistance level, and for the downside the previous break zones as supports.
Portfolio Instructions:
Hold GIGM
Best regards,
Chart Update:
A little upside continuation since yesterday's breakout, GIGM reached a new high for this pullback, but still below the $13.79 resistance.
Portfolio Instructions:
Hold GIGM
Regards,
Chart update:
A step back to the first short term support.
Portfolio Instructions:
Hold GIGM
Regards,
i stopped out this short today at 13.06, 6% loss
Still feel that the markets will sell the fed news next week, but i kicked myself last week when I did not honor my 13.00 stop as per my plan, so I did so today
the 200ma's are still rising.. perhaps i will join you long if we get a dip
cheers
joe
I hope that GIGM gets some vol for the longs here!
Quote from: joet on August 31, 2007, 01:38:25 AM
I hope that GIGM gets some vol for the longs here!
I hope we get more volume also. I am still holding my initial position that I bought a few weeks ago. However, in fact, my only slight concern has been a potential ascending wedge pattern forming. This is usually a bearish pattern when in an uptrend and characterized by reducing volume. You could almost make an argument about that pattern forming here similar to what I pasted in the attached chart. However, I think GIGM is really just in a sustained uptrend that will keep making new highs and the volume will eventually follow. I think this is the most likely scenario because the fundamentals support this stock so well now, and because it tests the moving averages often and rebounds off daily lows. Basically I think GIGM has broken through the 200 SMA and continues up with daily support at the 9 SMA all during shaky market times. In any case, I would really like to see 1.3 Million plus volume days to help confirm a healthy uptrend.
I'm looking forward to new highs! ;)
Yes I believe that your pattern would be a Bear Flag (?) Melf Elf had a lot to say about the Flag patterns, we miss him (did you ever read his posts?) Anyway, I see Gigm going with the Markets, despite its strong numbers if the market sells last weeks gains i believe the Bear Flag will hav been the call
I am currently OUT of GIGM But may buy in if we get a strong volume day
cheers joe
Yes I did read Melf's posts and found them very thorough. I miss his posts also. What happend to him??
If GIGM does correct with the market I may add more. As I've stated before, I believe at least the medium term fundamentals are great with this company. ;)
Jason
Decent day for GIGM. I'll take 3%. My only (slight) concern which I've pointed out in a previous post is the possible ascending wedge or "bear flag" which would indicate a future correction. But, as fous pointed out over on TTT.net, maybe this 3 week pattern is just a rising channel. I like that scenario better as it may be a little safer with luke warm volume like we've had. I'd still like to see 1.3 million + volume on the ascent. ???
Also looks like the 20 SMA is racing up to cross the 200 soon and the 50 is beginning to turn up and maybe within a week may cross above the 200. That will certainly help to have some MA's to help technically. ;)
As expected GIGM completelly recovered from that horrible phase 2 on the chart below. I say "horrible" not because of the magnitude of the decline, but because of its main cause: misinformation from the financial press.
I guess if I were to break my rule of never averaging down, GIGM would have to be bought on that dip below $10. But I've long ago learned that rules can't be broken, if one intends to prosper in this business.
Now that GIGM recovered phase 2, I expect it to keep pushing higher and recover phase 1, breaking out above the $16.42 high before year's end.
Fundamentally things can only get (even) better. Here's what the CEO said about the second half of 2007:
''Second-quarter was another record for GigaMedia, with outstanding performance in every business unit,'' stated Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. ''More important, we expect even stronger growth in the second half and excellent momentum into 2008.''
Watch the words ... it's not a "stronger 2nd half", but "even stronger growth" in the 2nd half. Better is good, but getting better at a faster rate ... is even better ;)
I'll hold GIGM for the long term.
Appreciated and applaud, N1notesguy.
Quote from: David Randolph on September 05, 2007, 06:04:59 PM
As expected GIGM completelly recovered from that horrible phase 2 on the chart below. I say "horrible" not because of the magnitude of the decline, but because of its main cause: misinformation from the financial press.
I guess if I were to break my rule of never averaging down, GIGM would have to be bought on that dip below $10. But I've long ago learned that rules can't be broken, if one intends to prosper in this business.
Now that GIGM recovered phase 2, I expect it to keep pushing higher and recover phase 1, breaking out above the $16.42 high before year's end.
Fundamentally things can only get (even) better. Here's what the CEO said about the second half of 2007:
''Second-quarter was another record for GigaMedia, with outstanding performance in every business unit,'' stated Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang. ''More important, we expect even stronger growth in the second half and excellent momentum into 2008.''
Watch the words ... it's not a "stronger 2nd half", but "even stronger growth" in the 2nd half. Better is good, but getting better at a faster rate ... is even better ;)
I'll hold GIGM for the long term.
Hi David
Yes this stock looks great now ...$16 is next stop very soon :)
Showing some REAL strength in the face of an ugly Friday. Solid pick !
Kent
Quote from: JKN on September 07, 2007, 03:56:08 PM
Showing some REAL strength in the face of an ugly Friday. Solid pick !
Kent
Yep Kent, GIGM is solid as a rock :)
And my hands, after having a 30% or so gain and a 30% or so loss, and having held through all this process, couldn't be stronger either. I certainly expect GIGM to close 2007 above $16.42, which was the previous high.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
A Top Growth Stock...JMHO of course !
She is looking good.
Technicals
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
13.29%above 13-day MA
20.01%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 1
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $783.08
P/E Ratio: 25.39
PEG Ratio: 0.57
Next Earnings: 11/08/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
Another day of strong bullishness for GIGM. The stock is almost done recovering from the phase 1 decline, which only happened because of misinformation, with Reuters interpreting "minor growth rate" as "outright sequential decline".
Of course no stock goes up in a straight line, so there will be pullbacks and technical reactions, but certainly fundamentals warrant a much higher share price for GIGM. I'll keep holding.
2-year weekly chart for GIGM: showing next uptrend resistance at ~$17.50
I believe GIGM will reach that area before correcting.
Sorry, here is the chart.
I took profit on GIGM today at 15.75. 5 weeks from 9.2 to 15.75. ;D
I think GIGM is still worth more than 16 but I'm still a trader at heart not a long term investor. So based on the excellent run/comeback from the 9's to near 16 in 5 weeks, and it nearing top resistance around 16, and with the RSI at 81, I'm betting it will bump its head on 16 for now.
I'd like to re-enter at some point so I'll keep a close watch.
This chart is a beauty!
GIGM is one company I'm not gonna chase with the dips. I was only illustrating the long-term chart to see where a correction could come in. Although GIGM grew much, it has been merely correcting the unwarranted decline. I want to hold it until we sense a change in fundamentals, like a substantial slow-down in profit growth.
I first bought GIGM in 12/05 when it was at 2.69. I held, sold, bought back, and sold, bought back, and repeated the cycle. I'm not sellng anymore.
Applaud Mitch You nailed this one
I was watching thurs Am and as it plateaued off after hitting 16.30's i put a short order in at 16.25 but it never topped 16.23 again... bummer for me :(
Any way what kind of settling are you looking for for an entry? would the 13's again be too much to hope for? Gigm does want to go up, will see if the Markets allow it to. All of the Gaming stocks are cranking on last weeks Vegas Receipts!! I shorted some WYNN trying to catch a top... will see
Cheers joe
Quote from: berloga on September 12, 2007, 09:40:25 AM
GIGM is one company I'm not gonna chase with the dips. I was only illustrating the long-term chart to see where a correction could come in. Although GIGM grew much, it has been merely correcting the unwarranted decline. I want to hold it until we sense a change in fundamentals, like a substantial slow-down in profit growth.
Quote from: capricho on September 13, 2007, 12:25:09 AM
I first bought GIGM in 12/05 when it was at 2.69. I held, sold, bought back, and sold, bought back, and repeated the cycle. I'm not sellng anymore.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on GIGM, berloga and capricho :)
It doesn't look like it, but GIGM was up 80.7% in just about a month, between the $9.02 low in August, 7, 2007 and the $16.3 high in September 12.
So it is perfectly natural for the stock to have a pullback like the one happening now. In my view we're just having a little bit of consolidation before enjoying a powerful bullish breakout.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM is a box filled with positive surprises, I wasn't even counting on this:
• GigaMedia Licenses Hot Game Title Holic (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070917/hkm003.html?.v=53)
PR Newswire (Mon 6:00am)
I was expecting something about Mahjong for $$$, Japanese suite of games or the online game HellGate: London, which were talked about in the latest conference call, but it seems Hui had more cards on his hand.
Entering China's online gaming market is a great step for GIGM. Companies like NTES, SNDA, NCTY operating in that space have a higher than GIGM market cap (NTES and SNDA are more than two times larger) and have very fat operating margins. So GIGM also wants a piece of the cake ... in fact it looks like it's going for a big chunk.
I wonder if this press release will be enough of a catalyst for GIGM to breakout above $16.42 this week. That would be cool :)
I already commented on the following press release:
• GigaMedia Licenses Hot Game Title Holic (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070917/hkm003.html?.v=53)
PR Newswire (Mon 6:00am)
It's good news but it lacks financial details. The market's response wasn't very enthusiastic, since GIGM rose just 0.2% on the day, but probably that had to do with the general market jitters and investors not placing many strong bets before an all important FED meeting.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
good news:
GigaMedia Licenses Hot Game Title Holic
Monday , September 17, 2007 06:00ET
TAIPEI, Taiwan, Sept. 17 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM) announced today that it has secured an exclusive license to offer and operate the hot new massively multiplayer online role-playing game Holic, in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.
Holic is an exciting game full of adorable characters, brilliant colors, martial arts and magic that cast a powerful spell of fun.
"With its fantastic adventures and movie-like thrills, Holic is rapidly becoming one of the hottest games in Korea - and we expect it to be an even bigger hit in Greater China," stated GigaMedia President Thomas Hui. "Cute- style MMORPGs represent a huge and lucrative market in Greater China: By adding Holic we are both strengthening our growing game portfolio and securing another important game segment."
Holic was created by MGame, a leading Korean game developer with a proven history of hit MMORPGs, including Yulgang, one of the top five 3D MMORPGs in China, and Hero Online.
"We are thrilled to partner with MGame, an expert in this genre of MMORPGs, and expect this strategic relationship to drive significant long-term growth in our online games business," added President Thomas Hui.
"We could not have chosen a better operator for Holic, and a better partner for MGame," stated MGame Chief Executive Officer Yi Hyung Kweon. "GigaMedia's unrivaled, extensive footprint in Greater China and strong game expertise will help make our games a tremendous success."
Exclusive regional licensing of Holic in all of Greater China demonstrates the value and synergies GigaMedia's pan-Asian platform offers leading international game developers. The Company's regional online games platform addresses a growing base of 65 million registered users in Greater China.
"While this is an exciting partnership, we are only beginning to leverage our pan-Asian platform and secure regional rights for hit titles in Greater China," explained President Thomas Hui. "We expect Holic to be one of several top games we will be operating in Greater China as we continue to leverage the synergies and massive reach of our online game platforms across Asia."
A cute-style MMORPG set in a colorful medieval countryside, Holic immerses players in a charming world of fantasy and adventure. Players create delightful cartoon-style characters, complete quests and battle monsters with magic and martial arts to advance through skill levels. Players may also create their own quests and environments to add even more excitement to the game.
good chart:
GIGM is getting ready to blow the $16.42 resistance level. Just watch it and hold it for the long term.
GIGM is just 4.4% shy of a new high. I guess positive news won't be needed for the stock to breakout above the $16.42 resistance level. But I expect positive news, be it the quarterly results, the launch of the Japanese suite of games, Mahjong for $ or HellGate: London to take it to around $20 by year's end.
Quote from: David Randolph on September 20, 2007, 06:17:21 AM
GIGM is just 4.4% shy of a new high. I guess positive news won't be needed for the stock to breakout above the $16.42 resistance level. But I expect positive news, be it the quarterly results, the launch of the Japanese suite of games, Mahjong for $ or HellGate: London to take it to around $20 by year's end.
We just hit the new high, $16.50 as I type, looks like a strong candle forming today ;D >:D
GIGM closed at a new 52 week high, as expected. Volume was above average, at 1.85 million shares. The stock will probably be around $20 by year's end. I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
new 52 weeks high >:D >:D >:D
GIGM: New 52-Wk High @ $16.750 up 1.82%
Friday , September 21, 2007 10:34ET
This is the 2nd 52 WEEK HIGH alert for GIGM in the past 7 calendar days.
The share price for GigaMedia Limited (NASDAQ NM: GIGM) reached a new 52-week high today, trading at $16.750, up $0.300 (1.82%) from its previous close of $16.450.
The Company's previous 52-week high of $16.600 was set yesterday on September 20, 2007.
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $12.380. The price has climbed more than 35 percent since then.
At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 319,900 shares via 921 trades, 66.97% below it's 20day average of 968,400 shares.
This new 52-week high currently puts the stock:
16.73% above its 20day Moving Average of $14.349
30.89% above its 50day Moving Average of $12.797
22.86% above its 100day Moving Average of $13.633
Quote from: joet on September 17, 2007, 02:19:57 AM
Applaud Mitch You nailed this one
I was watching thurs Am and as it plateaued off after hitting 16.30's i put a short order in at 16.25 but it never topped 16.23 again... bummer for me :(
Any way what kind of settling are you looking for for an entry? would the 13's again be too much to hope for? Gigm does want to go up, will see if the Markets allow it to. All of the Gaming stocks are cranking on last weeks Vegas Receipts!! I shorted some WYNN trying to catch a top... will see
Cheers joe
Thanks Joet.
I was actually hoping for it to test the previous 14 resistance area, now support. That would have been a real nice re-entry area in my mind. But hmmm, it has since blasted through to new 7 year highs! Closing at 16.76 today. Meanwhile I'm still on the sidelines. I'm waiting for a real confirmation that it will stay above 16, maybe needs to test low 16's for a few more sessions. I really do want back in, I'm just waiting for better direction. But man, GIGM sure has looked strong through the 16's yesterday and today. :o ;)
Note the 50 SMA just crossed the 200 SMA and the RSI is back up over 80.
Later!
GIGM experienced a bit of profit taking on low volume, after opening with a gap up at $17. Nothing to worry about, I'll continue holding GIGM.
Some high profile GIGM bashing today by:
1. Cramer ::)
QuoteGigaMedia (GIGM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating): "As soon as I hear broadband, I'm just gonna keep sending you back to Cisco. ... I have to worry about this group, because I just think the guy that's in charge of this whole group is John Chambers."
2. Motley Fool http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/25/5-star-stocks-leaders-have-soured-on.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/25/5-star-stocks-leaders-have-soured-on.aspx)
;)
GIGM: Short Interest DN 17.9% to 3.1M in Sep 2007
Tuesday , September 25, 2007 16:17ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 17.9% to 3,128,996 shares for the month ended mid-September, 2007.
SYMBOL AUGUST SEPTEMBER CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
GIGM 3,811,595 3,128,996 -682,599 -17.91% 4
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,009,380, it would require approximately 4 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Quote from: Kublakhan on September 25, 2007, 07:41:46 PM
Some high profile GIGM bashing today by:
1. Cramer ::)
QuoteGigaMedia (GIGM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating): "As soon as I hear broadband, I'm just gonna keep sending you back to Cisco. ... I have to worry about this group, because I just think the guy that's in charge of this whole group is John Chambers."
2. Motley Fool http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/25/5-star-stocks-leaders-have-soured-on.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/25/5-star-stocks-leaders-have-soured-on.aspx)
Thanks for the info Kublakhan :)
Obviously Cramer doesn't know a thing about GIGM and should keep his mouth shut until he does, since GIGM is getting out of the broadband business, which accounts for just 9.1% of its revenues.
As for the Motley Fool user comment, saying, "online gaming isn't new or unique", it's a silly argument in my opinion. Wal Mart didn't invent supermarkets (and it sure isn't the only one) and yet it grew to be a $175 B market cap company. Toyota didn't invent cars and has a lot of competition and yet it is a $208 B market cap company. I could be here all day writing examples of companies that didn't invent anything, have lots of competition, and yet grew more than 100 fold over the years.
GIGM can do the same. Thinking of GIGM's management skills, I would say the sky is the limit.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
When you watch Cramer's shows, you may notice his little face appearing as a logo. On that picturee he looks just like old Russian Bolshevik-Communist leader from 1917, Vladimir Lenin.
Lenin's agenda was to distroy the capitalist companies and nationalize the remains. Cramer's got a similar agenda, only pertaining to stocks of those companies. He has no clue, this clown.
Quote from: berloga on September 26, 2007, 09:29:31 AM
When you watch Cramer's shows, you may notice his little face appearing as a logo. On that picturee he looks just like old Russian Bolshevik-Communist leader from 1917, Vladimir Lenin.
Lenin's agenda was to distroy the capitalist companies and nationalize the remains. Cramer's got a similar agenda, only pertaining to stocks of those companies. He has no clue, this clown.
Lol berloga ;D
GIGM is always suffering from misleading information. Yesterday it was Cramer who opened his big mouth to say bad things about GIGM (false things).
Fortunately over the long term value always comes up and on that aspect I don't think we have to worry about GIGM. I'll keep holding the stock for the long term.
GIGM continues to consolidate the move it had from around $9 to $17. Longer term, according to my view of the fundamentals and the future potential, the stock can only keep trending up.
With GIGM doing so well over a seasonally weak period ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=40641;image)
... I wonder how well it will do in the seasonally stronger period ahead of us.
I'll find out as I'll hold the stock for the long term.
I like this chart. Break above $17 not far behind...I believe. ;D
GIGM closed back above the $16.42 technical reference, showing we've had just a minor correction to the bullish trend, not a false bullish breakout with other type of consequences.
I expect several good news between now and the end of the year and GIGM to close 2007 above $20 a share.
GIGM closed at a new 7 year high, with 1.1 million shares changing hands. No news out. I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM is booming, no news releases out, no questions asked.
The stock should go directly to $20 plus, just to punish the people who sold all the way down to $9, without a valid fundamental justification ???
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
last but not least:
GigaMedia "buy," target price raised
Thursday, October 04, 2007 10:16:12 AM ET
Roth Capital
NEW YORK, October 4 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Roth Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on GigaMedia Limited (ticker: GIGM).
The target price has been raised from $17 to $22.
&
GIGM: New 52-Wk High @ $18.290 up 1.72%
Friday , October 05, 2007 09:46ET
This is the 3rd 52 WEEK HIGH alert for GIGM in the past 7 calendar days.
The share price for GigaMedia Limited (NASDAQ NM: GIGM) reached a new 52-week high today, trading at $18.290, up $0.310 (1.72%) from its previous close of $17.980.
The Company's previous 52-week high of $18.250 was set yesterday on October 04, 2007.
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $10.270. The price has climbed more than 78 percent since then. At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 17,900 shares via 21 trades, 98.32% below it's 20day average of 1,067,380 shares.
&
I have found MelfElf again, please check his blog and his comments on GIGM:
http://melfsworkshop.blogspot.com/
QuoteI have found MelfElf again, please check his blog and his comments on GIGM:
http://melfsworkshop.blogspot.com/
Hi la-onda, thanks for sharing Mel Elf's location. I'm glad you found him because he's such a nice man.
But in stock market strategic terms I see he's still in the "tic-tac technical analysis" mode, licking stocks instead of investing in them. Now he's short GIGM ::) ... probably for a few ticks, as usual.
GIGM's fundamentals are sound, the stock is trending higher and the best is yet to come. Even though there can be some short term weakness, I only consider long term trends, not short term fluctuations, which are highly unpredictable.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
QuoteAre you sure he is short? His last post I saw on 10/7 was neutral to positive, here is an excerpt:
You're right Tokyopua, now that I've read the entire post with more attention (opening my mind to the short term technical noise >:D) I see that he isn't short, he's neutral, because:
«But, my "shorting breakouts" days are long since over. That's a HUGE "no-no" for me, even if the trade would have ended up working out. The majority of bullish breakouts in bullish stocks are true breakouts, and I won't even consider shorting them.»
I agree with him, not a good idea to sell bullish breakouts short.
As I've studied and experienced more about the stock market, I'm moving further and further away from technical analysis. As Melf Elf post clearly exemplifies, technical indications change too often, and they're often wrong too. I am getting to the point of believing they don't work at all ... and it makes sense, if we consider stocks represent a business. The way the business goes doesn't have any regard for trendlines or any other technical indicators derived from the stock price. Also, if we consider something like "fair reward for your work", I think drawing some lines on a chart or looking at the open-high-low-close-volume relationship isn't properly working hard for your money ... I mean, my 8 year old kid (if I had one of that age), could do that job. Does anyone really believes outstanding long term returns can come out of this activity? I don't think so, I think it is an illusion.
Going back to GIGM ... as one can read on this thread, I expect positive news between now and the end of the year and the stock to close 2007 above $20. I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
also for the free board 8)
GigaMedia initiated with "outperform" - update
Thursday, October 11, 2007 1:53:14 PM ET
Bear Stearns
NEW YORK, October 11 (newratings.com) - Analyst James Rhee of Bear Stearns initiates coverage of GigaMedia Ltd (ticker: GIGM) with an "outperform" rating.
The target price is set to $27.
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company has a strong presence in the growing real-money gaming software and online games industries. GigaMedia's real-money gaming software and online games businesses are expected to generate revenue CAGRs of 26% and 83%, respectively, in 2007-2010, the analyst says. The company has an impressive investment track record and has been prudently utilizing proceeds from the disposal of low-return assets and operations to create shareholder value, Bear Stearns adds.
awesome, just awesome >:D >:D
GigaMedia initiated with "outperform" - update
Thursday, October 11, 2007 1:53:14 PM ET
Bear Stearns
NEW YORK, October 11 (newratings.com) - Analyst James Rhee of Bear Stearns initiates coverage of GigaMedia Ltd (ticker: GIGM) with an "outperform" rating.
The target price is set to $27.
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company has a strong presence in the growing real-money gaming software and online games industries. GigaMedia's real-money gaming software and online games businesses are expected to generate revenue CAGRs of 26% and 83%, respectively, in 2007-2010, the analyst says. The company has an impressive investment track record and has been prudently utilizing proceeds from the disposal of low-return assets and operations to create shareholder value, Bear Stearns adds.
FINALLY !!!>.After attending 3 CC..they get their act together.
Wow, GIGM closed above $20 :o
La-onda gave us the explanation for the 13.9% rise on GIGM while the Nasdaq went down 1.4%:
«NEW YORK, October 11 (newratings.com) - Analyst James Rhee of Bear Stearns initiates coverage of GigaMedia Ltd (ticker: GIGM) with an "outperform" rating.
The target price is set to $27.
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company has a strong presence in the growing real-money gaming software and online games industries. GigaMedia's real-money gaming software and online games businesses are expected to generate revenue CAGRs of 26% and 83%, respectively, in 2007-2010, the analyst says. The company has an impressive investment track record and has been prudently utilizing proceeds from the disposal of low-return assets and operations to create shareholder value, Bear Stearns adds.»
Here are more notes from this Bear Sterns analyst:
«Rhee predicted that the company's stock could benefit from regulatory easing in Europe and the free-trade policy among European Union states.»
«The brokerage, which set a 2008 price target of $27 on the company, said risks to its target include prohibitions against real-money gaming and competition in Asia's online games market. »
Anyway, I think the "juice" of this analysis is in the following part:
«GigaMedia's real-money gaming software and online games businesses are expected to generate revenue CAGRs of 26% and 83%, respectively, in 2007-2010, the analyst says.»
Let's study this in more detail. Gaming Software business had 2006 revenue of $55 M and the Online Games business had 2006 revenue of $18.7 M. If we make the calculus we get to $109 M for Gaming Software and $115 M for Online Games business in 2010, that is, $224 M in consolidated revenue.
In my valuation model I'm expecting 50% revenue CAGR for GIGM as a whole ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=40958;image)
... which gives me $318 M revenue in 2009, not 2010. So I'm a lot more optimistic than the Bear Sterns analyst. I don't know why he expects such a slowdown in the Gaming Software business unit, since he expects just 26% revenue CAGR, even though the recent growth rate has been quite superior:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=40959;image)
150% revenue growth in Q2 2007 when compared with Q2 2006, which is a lot more than 26%. I think the analyst is being too pessimistic when he expects this type of slowdown in growth.
GIGM is also beating my 50% revenue CAGR estimate for the consolidated business, because I have 50% and revenue growth in Q2 2007 from Q2 2006 was 88%:
«Consolidated revenues up 88 percent year-over-year to $40.1 million; up 11 percent sequentially over Q1 of 2007.»
So, in my view, GIGM's fundamental trends are much more powerful than the numbers put out by the Bear Sterns analyst. And, if the market's response to his analysis was a 14% advance day, wait until they see the real numbers and their trend ;)
My valuation model says GIGM is currently worth $49.32 a share (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main), I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
Applause David, great work here.. ;D
here are the reason why we are all invested in GIGM >:D >:D
Full BS report is attached, please download
cheers from Detroit Rock City ;)
O.
Quote from: Terliso on October 12, 2007, 10:28:03 AM
Applause David, great work here.. ;D
Thanks Terliso, patience is really paying off on GIGM :)
Quote from: la-onda on October 14, 2007, 06:16:13 PM
here are the reason why we are all invested in GIGM >:D >:D
Full BS report is attached, please download
cheers from Detroit Rock City ;)
O.
Great information La-onda, applaud :)
I see Bear Stearns places a lot of confidence in HellGate:London, but it almost ccompletely disregards the Japanese suite of games ... and it doesn't consider MahJong for money much. All in all, I think GIGM can and will probably do much better than Bear Stearns' estimates. That $27 price target for the end of 2008 may very well be reached in the first quarter.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
Yes great info on GIGM as usual La-onda. I think GIGM might go on the IBD 100 soon, not that it needs it though, as it's beginninhg to garner enough attention on it's own. IBD currently has it on a list of 10 fast growers, might take another ER to get on the 100. IBD rates it as best in group in 3 out of 4 categories, including overall.
Quote from: BigSully1 on October 15, 2007, 12:42:27 PM
Yes great info on GIGM as usual La-onda. I think GIGM might go on the IBD 100 soon, not that it needs it though, as it's beginninhg to garner enough attention on it's own. IBD currently has it on a list of 10 fast growers, might take another ER to get on the 100. IBD rates it as best in group in 3 out of 4 categories, including overall.
Thanks for the info BigSully1 :)
As time goes by, and GIGM goes up, those phases, 1 and 2 on the chart below will lose importance. I guess that six months down the road everybody will look at them as "short term technical noise" or "consolidation phases". This will be good to remember when something similar happens in this or another stock ... the chart said sell but the fundamentals seemed to be very attractive.
If this case happens to you again, be strong and trust your fundamental analysis, as you'll probably be rewarded like no short term trader is. Short term traders think they are doing well, but after 20 or 30 years of thousands of trades they see that the overall result is that they barely beat commission costs and had a very stressful life while doing it. It is a lot more fun to study the businesses and invest in them than trying to guess what the next day will bring. I talk from personal experience.
I suppose GIGM won't continue rising in a straight line, but it doesn't cross my mind to sell it to try grabbing it lower, that would only bring anxiety and I could lose my position. In my view GIGM is worth a lot more than other online gaming/gambling companies outhere which are valued at $2 B plus. And GIGM is still just a $1.1 B market cap company.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
I was expecting a press release about the Japanese suite of games, Mahjong for $ or Hellgate: London, but GIGM's management doesn't seem to be the type of trying to put the share price as high as they can over the short term.
They don't seem interested in an artificial advance, so they usually just provide very relevant information, and usually just at the earnings release and conference call.
The next conference call will probably happen in late November. I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
Speculation.......
Above 13-day MA...with next earnings report November 2007.
UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-Bear starts GigaMedia with outperform...
52wk Range: 8.66 - 21.62
Volume: 730,477
Avg Vol (3m): 1,263,690
Market Cap: 1.13B
P/E (ttm): 39.93
EPS (ttm): 0.536
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
13.50%above 13-day MA
34.16%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 2
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,075.21
P/E Ratio: 34.87
PEG Ratio: 0.8275
Next Earnings: 11/08/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform
<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
Also read this, it is also posted on the GIGA Thread.......
The Giga Is Up.......
This has to be the most hotly anticipated earnings call since the Internet bubble.
Giga-tronics (GIGA)
Tiny producer of test and measurement equipment for the wireless-communications industry, announced late last Thursday it would release second-quarter earnings Oct. 30.
The stock surged 46% last Friday to a two-year high of $3.76. Volume was 6.7 million shares for a stock that typically trades less than 10,000 shares a day. On Monday, the stock hit an intraday high of $4.27, 69% higher than last Thursday, before closing down 15 cents, or 4% to $3.61 on volume of 1.9 million shares.
"On a normal basis, we don't give out any forward-looking information and nothing new has transpired," says Pat Lawlor, Giga-tronics chief financial officer. "I'm glad to see the stock go up, but there's no reason I know of."
It's possible that the San Ramon, Calif., company has done well, but not this well. The word on Wall Street is that day traders and message-board junkies are confused and have mixed up their tickers.
It just so happens a similar-sounding company, GigaMedia (GIGM)
received a big boost last Thursday when Bear Stearns began coverage of the stock with an outperform rating. On Thursday, GigaMedia's stock jumped 14% to $20.90 on volume of 2 million shares. Its average daily volume appears to be around 500,000 shares.
"It makes sense that it was a mix-up in the ticker," says Lon Juricic, editor of StreetInsider.com, a financial news Web site. "When you have a micro-cap stock that surges on no news, and the day before, a company with a similar name gets a nice boost from Bear Stearns, you can put two and two together."
Giga-tronics is on a bit of an upswing. The company says 70% of its business is government oriented. It sells products that airplane maker Boeing (BA) puts into its planes for the U.S. military.
For the fiscal year ended March 31, it posted a net loss of $1.9 million, or 39 cents a share, double the loss of $988,000, or 20 cents a share, the previous fiscal year. Annual revenue fell 12% to $18.0 million year over year. For its most recent quarter ended June 30, the company returned to profitability, earning $92,000, or 2 cents a share, reversing the year-earlier loss of $1.0 million, or 21 cents a share. Revenue jumped 37% to $4.6 million.
Surprisingly, the day after it announced a real profit, on July 31, the stock gained 20% on volume of just 129,620 shares. Not bad, but not the frenzy of Friday.
CFO Lawlor says the company's trends are positive after restructuring the business over the past year, which included reducing the staff by 20% and closing some facilities.
<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
From my post on the Stock Picking Board.
Speculation.......
Above 13-day MA...with next earnings report November 2007.
UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-Bear starts GigaMedia with outperform...
52wk Range: 8.66 - 21.62
Volume: 730,477
Avg Vol (3m): 1,263,690
Market Cap: 1.13B
P/E (ttm): 39.93
EPS (ttm): 0.536
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
13.50%above 13-day MA
34.16%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 2
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,075.21
P/E Ratio: 34.87
PEG Ratio: 0.8275
Next Earnings: 11/08/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform
<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
Also read this, it is also posted on the GIGA Thread.......
The Giga Is Up.......
This has to be the most hotly anticipated earnings call since the Internet bubble.
Giga-tronics (GIGA)
Tiny producer of test and measurement equipment for the wireless-communications industry, announced late last Thursday it would release second-quarter earnings Oct. 30.
The stock surged 46% last Friday to a two-year high of $3.76. Volume was 6.7 million shares for a stock that typically trades less than 10,000 shares a day. On Monday, the stock hit an intraday high of $4.27, 69% higher than last Thursday, before closing down 15 cents, or 4% to $3.61 on volume of 1.9 million shares.
"On a normal basis, we don't give out any forward-looking information and nothing new has transpired," says Pat Lawlor, Giga-tronics chief financial officer. "I'm glad to see the stock go up, but there's no reason I know of."
It's possible that the San Ramon, Calif., company has done well, but not this well. The word on Wall Street is that day traders and message-board junkies are confused and have mixed up their tickers.
It just so happens a similar-sounding company, GigaMedia (GIGM)
received a big boost last Thursday when Bear Stearns began coverage of the stock with an outperform rating. On Thursday, GigaMedia's stock jumped 14% to $20.90 on volume of 2 million shares. Its average daily volume appears to be around 500,000 shares.
"It makes sense that it was a mix-up in the ticker," says Lon Juricic, editor of StreetInsider.com, a financial news Web site. "When you have a micro-cap stock that surges on no news, and the day before, a company with a similar name gets a nice boost from Bear Stearns, you can put two and two together."
Giga-tronics is on a bit of an upswing. The company says 70% of its business is government oriented. It sells products that airplane maker Boeing (BA) puts into its planes for the U.S. military.
For the fiscal year ended March 31, it posted a net loss of $1.9 million, or 39 cents a share, double the loss of $988,000, or 20 cents a share, the previous fiscal year. Annual revenue fell 12% to $18.0 million year over year. For its most recent quarter ended June 30, the company returned to profitability, earning $92,000, or 2 cents a share, reversing the year-earlier loss of $1.0 million, or 21 cents a share. Revenue jumped 37% to $4.6 million.
Surprisingly, the day after it announced a real profit, on July 31, the stock gained 20% on volume of just 129,620 shares. Not bad, but not the frenzy of Friday.
CFO Lawlor says the company's trends are positive after restructuring the business over the past year, which included reducing the staff by 20% and closing some facilities.
<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
The "GIGM" Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.
Good trading to all !
Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis
After being up so much, GIGM went up some more. Phases 1 and 2 on the chart below are starting to look small. In 12 months time almost nobody will remember them anymore. But I will.
I'll remember it for the next time I see misleading information taking a stock sharply down.
I'll just let the profits run on GIGM, $2 B market cap is a sure thing to me (currently it is $1.2 B).
Not even GIGM goes up in a straight line so Friday's correction is normal. 3rd quarter earnings will probably be released near November 15.
The estimates I have on my valuation model point to an optimal selling price of $49.32 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main), so I'll continue holding GIGM.
I see that analysts are now expecting $0.95 EPS for GIGM in 2008:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41251;image)
This was because of Bear Stearns initiating coverage. So the stock is trading at $21.7/$0.95 = 22.8 times forward earnings. The Internet Software & Services industry trades at 39.2 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=GIGM).
Anyway, nobody knows what the impact of the Japanese suite of games, MahJong for $ or Hellgate: London is going to be. $0.95 would be my EPS estimate just with GIGM's current businesses, not considering these new initiatives.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM started at BUY from Citi w/ $28 price target
Zacks Recent Price Strength Strategy Highlights: GigaMedia, ICON, Mettler-Toledo and Navios Maritime Holdings2:01 PM ET - BusinessWireThis stock picking strategy looks for companies trading in the upper range of their 52-week highs that have attractive fundamental attributes. This strategy proves that "trend is your friend" with a +29% return versus +16.7% for the S&P 500 in 2006. This screen is called the Recent Price Strength Profit Track strategy. Four stocks meeting this screen's exclusive criteria are GigaMedia Ltd. (NASDAQ: GIGM), ICON (NASDAQ: ICLR), Mettler-Toledo International, Inc. (NYSE: MTD) and Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NM). View the entire list of stocks for the Recent Price Strength Profit Track at http://at.zacks.com/?id=1863.
Here are details about four companies currently identified by the Recent Price Strength Profit Track:
GigaMedia Ltd. (NASDAQ: GIGM), a major provider of online entertainment software and services, is a stone's throw from its 52-week high. The Zacks #2 Rank company has also surged by almost 32% over the past four weeks. Such factors easily pass the parameters of the Recent Price Strength profit track, suggesting strong momentum for GIGM. The company recently got a boost after a major brokerage firm initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating. Previously, GigaMedia announced solid second-quarter results, including revenue growth of 88%, and stated that it expects stronger growth in the second half with excellent momentum into 2008.
Earlier this week, ICON (NASDAQ: ICLR) reported third-quarter revenue growth of 38.3% to $166.9 million from $120.7 million year over year. The company also announced that earnings per share improved from the previous year while also eclipsing the consensus. Given the strong results, ICON raised its revenue and EPS guidance for 2007. The performance helped this Zacks #1 Rank company surpass its 52-week high and validate its position in this profit track. With its share price rising over the past 12- and four-week periods, the company appears to have a solid and upward trend in place. ICON provides outsourced development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device industries.
Mettler-Toledo International, Inc. (NYSE: MTD) is a leading global supplier of precision instruments and services. This Zacks #2 Rank company fulfills this profit track with a current price that hovers around its 52-week high. A price change of more than 7.5% in the past four weeks further supports its encouraging trend. MTD will report its third-quarter results on Nov 1. For its second quarter, the company announced earnings per share of $1.07, which beat the consensus by almost 5% while easily surpassing the year-ago result. Sales advanced to $430.5 million from $389.2 million. Mettler-Toledo is confident in its growth prospects moving forward and raised its 2007 EPS outlook.
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NM) is a seaborne shipping company that transports a wide range of drybulk commodities, including iron ore, coal and grain. This puts the company in one of the market's hottest industries, as underscored by its membership in the Recent Price Strength profit track. Navios' share price is a short jump from its 52-week high. Furthermore, over the past four weeks, this Zacks #2 Rank's share price has gained more than 24%, which is evidence of a favorable price trend. Given such factors, Navios Maritime appears to enjoy solid momentum moving forward as it capitalizes on strong industry momentum.
Discover all the current stocks currently on the Recent Price Strength Profit Track at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1864
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Quote from: Kublakhan on October 25, 2007, 10:20:39 AM
GIGM started at BUY from Citi w/ $28 price target
Thanks for the information Kublakhan, so now we have Bear Stearns calling for $27 and Citigroup for $28. These price targets will probably act as a magnet and GIGM will probably achieve them in less than six months time.
QuoteGigaMedia Ltd. (NASDAQ: GIGM), a major provider of online entertainment software and services, is a stone's throw from its 52-week high. The Zacks #2 Rank company has also surged by almost 32% over the past four weeks. Such factors easily pass the parameters of the Recent Price Strength profit track, suggesting strong momentum for GIGM. The company recently got a boost after a major brokerage firm initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating. Previously, GigaMedia announced solid second-quarter results, including revenue growth of 88%, and stated that it expects stronger growth in the second half with excellent momentum into 2008.
Nothing new here, perhaps just some more visibility.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
Bear Stearns is calling for $27 and CitiGroup for $28, this for October 2008. At the midpoint of these expectations the 12 month return would be roughly 25% and I could live with that ... but I'm more optimistic than that.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM closed at a new seven year high today (the all time high was $91 back in 2000).
The company's market cap is now $1.24 B, but I remain confident that it will be $2 B ($38 a share) in the not so distant future.
Lets make quick some comparisons with other online gaming companies, for example, SNDA and NTES. SNDA is a $2.86 B market cap with 2008 estimated revenues of $375 M. NTES is a $2.47 B company with 2008 estimated revenues of $318 M. And GIGM is $1.24 B market cap with 2008 revenues of $240 M.
So, SNDA's sales multiple is 7.63, NTES is 7.77 and GIGM's Price to Sales Ratio is 5.16.
Considering this metric GIGM is still undervalued and needs to rise 50% to get in line with its peers ... and GIGM's growth potential is much higher, in my view. GIGM is also more diversified and more global than SNDA and NTES.
I'll just let the profits run on GIGM, holding for the long term.
There wasn't any new information out for GIGM. The fair value for these shares, given by my valuation model, is $49.32 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GIGM&portfolio=main), so I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
It appears GIGM and other Chinese online gaming companies (even though GIGM isn't just that) got a boost yesterday from Giant Interactive (GA) market debut yesterday:
A 'Giant' gaming IPO from China (http://mediabiz.blogs.cnnmoney.cnn.com/2007/11/01/a-giant-gaming-ipo-from-china/?source=yahoo_quote)
This IPO isn't "Giant" on name only, since, according to my calculations using the SEC IPO prospect (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1415016/000119312507232632/d424b4.htm), GA's market cap is currently $4.8 B, making it the largest Chinese online gaming company. It looks like it's trading at 36 times earnings.
GIGM is still just a $1.3 B market cap company and I see it going to $2 B in 12 months time.
I'll continue holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM will report 3rd quarter earnings on November 14th:
• GigaMedia to Report Third-Quarter 2007 Financial Results on November 14 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071031/hkw009.html?.v=4)
PR Newswire (Wed, Oct 31)
One of GIGM's beauties is that it is mostly independent of the economic cycle. If anything people gamble even more at times of economic stress and anxiety.
Estimates for the 3rd quarter are conservative, due to seasonality, I think GIGM will beat the following expectations ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41610;image)
... because GIGM already grew on a sequential basis in the 2nd quarter, which was also considered to be soft from a seasonal standpoint.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM's 2nd quarter was also seasonally weak and look at the company's performance on a sequential basis:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41627;image)
Revenue grew 11% and EPS grew 17% from Q1 2007. Analysts are expecting a decline in EPS in Q3 ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41610;image)
... which is a nonsense to me, I'm pretty sure the company will easily surpass these estimates. By how much is the question.
Beyond the quarterly analysis we need to think of the long term, mainly the potential of the company's pipeline of new products and services, like the Japanese suite of games, Mahjong for $ and online game Hellgate: London.
Never forget that there are companies outthere with just one online game which are worth more than GIGM, which is a very diversified company and will also enter the Chinese online gaming market with two games, Hellgate: London and Holic.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
I hope those selling this morning are just nervous rather than knowlegible.
GigaMedia (GIGM) NewsBite - GigaMedia Slips on Lionbridge Outlook
Tuesday , November 06, 2007 02:56ET
Nov 06, 2007 (Fresh Brewed Media via COMTEX) -- GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM) opened at 24.00. So far today, the stock has hit a low of 21.23 and a high of 24.10. GIGM is now trading at 22.08, down 1.79 (-7.46%). The stock hit its 52 week high of 25.42 in November and set its 52 week low of 8.66 in December. GIGM has been moving upwards for most of the past year. Shares of internet software providers have been falling today after Lionbridge Technologies Inc. (LIOX) posted disappointing third-quarter sales and issued revenue outlook below analysts' expectations. Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and steady. If you're looking for a hedged trade on this stock, consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $30 level. GIGM stock could rise up to 35.9% before expiration and this position would still be profitable.
Anyone find the reason for the 10% drop today?
Cheers,
fyi:
GigaMedia (GIGM) NewsBite - GigaMedia Slips on Lionbridge Outlook
Tuesday , November 06, 2007 02:56ET
Nov 06, 2007 (Fresh Brewed Media via COMTEX) -- GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM) opened at 24.00. So far today, the stock has hit a low of 21.23 and a high of 24.10. GIGM is now trading at 22.08, down 1.79 (-7.46%). The stock hit its 52 week high of 25.42 in November and set its 52 week low of 8.66 in December. GIGM has been moving upwards for most of the past year. Shares of internet software providers have been falling today after Lionbridge Technologies Inc. (LIOX) posted disappointing third-quarter sales and issued revenue outlook below analysts' expectations. Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and steady. If you're looking for a hedged trade on this stock, consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $30 level. GIGM stock could rise up to 35.9% before expiration and this position would still be profitable.
;)
Quote from: soxguy on November 06, 2007, 11:04:30 AM
I hope those selling this morning are just nervous rather than knowlegible.
I don't think they're nervous, they're pretty happy about selling GIGM for a profit, because most people lose their sleep when holding unrealized big fat profits. They feel like they want the cash in the pocket, losing sight of why they invested in the first place.
There's a good excerpt on Reminiscences of a Stock Operator about this common attitude. I'm sure most of you already know it, but if someone shows interest, I'll go get it and copy/paste it to this thread.
GIGM's business model is totally independent from the economic cycle. The level of global economic growth, inflation, interest rates, oil price or any other macroeconomic variable doesn't change GIGM's growth prospects, which are spectacular in my view.
GIGM is an undervalued growth stock which will, without a doubt in my mind, be worth more than $2 B ($38 a share) over the next 12 months.
Quote from: la-onda on November 06, 2007, 07:01:46 PM
GigaMedia (GIGM) NewsBite - GigaMedia Slips on Lionbridge Outlook
Tuesday , November 06, 2007 02:56ET
Nov 06, 2007 (Fresh Brewed Media via COMTEX) -- GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM) opened at 24.00. So far today, the stock has hit a low of 21.23 and a high of 24.10. GIGM is now trading at 22.08, down 1.79 (-7.46%). The stock hit its 52 week high of 25.42 in November and set its 52 week low of 8.66 in December. GIGM has been moving upwards for most of the past year. Shares of internet software providers have been falling today after Lionbridge Technologies Inc. (LIOX) posted disappointing third-quarter sales and issued revenue outlook below analysts' expectations. Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and steady. If you're looking for a hedged trade on this stock, consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $30 level. GIGM stock could rise up to 35.9% before expiration and this position would still be profitable.
First, GIGM isn't an internet service provider anymore. Those operations are for sale and represented just 9.1% of revenue in Q2 2007. Second, LIOX's business doesn't have anything to do with GIGM's and LIOX is just a $211 M market cap, it hardly impacts any other companies.
Anyway, thanks for bringing us this information la-onda, it's always good to know what others are thinking and why they're doing what they're doing, especially when they're doing wrong things for the wrong reasons while they're against our position.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM looks like a great point to buy or add on it's first trip to the 50MA - $18.48 since August.
Quote from: BigSully1 on November 08, 2007, 12:27:02 PM
GIGM looks like a great point to buy or add on it's first trip to the 50MA - $18.48 since August.
I naturally agree BigSully1. It's interesting the persistence of pullbacks to the 50 days SMA on bullish stocks. I'll keep that in mind the next time I want to buy a new stock ... sooner or later, they'll pullback to the 50's or maybe even the 200 days SMA, and that's the right timing to buy.
Now, it doesn't always happen this way ... look at ASTI for example, if I waited for a touch in the 50's I would still be waiting, not winning 53% as I am now.
GIGM's sell off was a non-sense in my opinion, but this is the way the market works. Even though from a fundamental standpoint it looks obvious that we'll see $50 instead of $10, the market does what it can to shake everybody out of this conviction. It convinces a man that getting in and out is the best attitude. But, when the stock indeed reaches $50 and he looks to his records, he sees that it took him a lot of work to squeeze $15 a share out of the stock, compared to $30 a share for the simple "buy and hold" strategy.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM's earnings will be released on Wednesday before the open. I really love the way they show us the numbers, subdivided by business units.
Perhaps at $25 GIGM was overvalued, for a person just considering the current revenues and earnings. But for a person, like myself, who also considers the future potential, GIGM was still undervalued. GIGM will be worth $50 a share, in my view, and I don't see many risks to this prediction.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
Over the last 2 weeks people got really angry at this stock.What do they know that I don't?
It's amazing how quickly profits are wiped out. And the problem is, it is hard to figure a plan for taking profits when the intent is long-term investment...
Soxguy, what is your strategy?
I guess we would be better off if we checked the price once a month,but that's not realistic. My cost basis is $12.47. I'll sell only to avoid a loss if it get's down that far.
Quote from: soxguy on November 12, 2007, 01:01:50 PM
Over the last 2 weeks people got really angry at this stock.What do they know that I don't?
What did the people selling between $9 and $10 back in August knew about GIGM's fundamentals? They knew nothing ... pretty much like the people selling now.
GIGM came down quite ferociously ... but, the company has nothing to do with the worries currently constant in the market. The US economy? GIGM doesn't conduct any businesses in the US. Moreover its business model and growth don't depend on economic growth, because gambling is relatively immune to the economic cycle ... if anything people gamble more at times of economic anxiety. Credit problems? GIGM doesn't concede any credit, all its costumers pay in cash.
The only reason why GIGM came down is an earnings multiple compression. Next year's earnings multiple came down from 25 to 16. Now the stock is very cheap, because EPS will probably grow by 60% or more in 2008 and the P/E is just 16. This growth estimate doesn't depend on anything, it naturally flows from the company's innovative businesses.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
nice summarization:
Case in point: Motley Fool Global Gains recommendation GigaMedia (Nasdaq: GIGM). Just take a look at this chart and tell me how much sense it makes. Yesterday the stock tanked 13% on ... well, on no news at all. According to efficient market theory, there would need to be something, some bit of data, to explain the market's drastic repricing of the stock. If there was any information out there today -- and I've seen nothing to indicate that there was -- it must have been retracted, or counteracted and then some. Today, the stock has zipped back up 20%. A search for news that might explain this move turns up zilch.
The quick and drastic moves at GigaMedia may be extreme examples, but they're by no means the only ones. There are a ton of great companies out there going on sale because of our jumpy markets. One of the ways I keep tabs on them is by running a screen that looks for beaten-up, solid performers: companies with a history of revenue growth, earnings growth, and most importantly, expanding margins. That means these companies are firing on all cylinders, and getting more profitable as they take in more on the top line. Finally, I look for those that have been smacked down at least 15% from their 52-week highs. These days, this screen yields more than 100 first-class firms.
That's not to say there's no reason at all for stocks to be moving. GigaMedia is a great growth story, but let's be honest, it has had a heck of a run over the past few months. Something as simple as pessimism and profit-taking could quickly snowball into a 15% drop, but today, we see just how "justified" such movements may not be. More often than not these days, the swings are not based on data, nor any material news about a company's long-term prospects. A major proportion of the drops I'm seeing are based on fear and herd mentality, and that's exactly the kind of irrational "efficient market" action that can make you money. But only if you have the guts to buy when things get crazy.
I like the chart and I am looking forward for the Q3 results
The effect of seasonality that many people expected in the 2nd quarter happened now, with GIGM results roughly flat versus the prior quarter:
• GigaMedia Q3: Record Revenues, Up 76% Y-o-Y (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071114/hkw007.html?.v=8)
PR Newswire (Wed 6:15am)
It still beat expectations:
• InPlay: GigaMedia beats by $0.03, beats on revs (http://finance.yahoo.com/mp#gigm)
Briefing.com (Wed 6:21am)
But I guess the market will react negatively to the news, at least over the short term, but that's normal after yesterday's 28.4% rally. The stock is down about 9% in the pre-market.
Anyway, I believe the key sentence in this report is the following, under "Business Outlook":
«In October, average net daily revenue was up approximately 15 percent over that achieved in the third quarter.»
So we know the 4th quarter is shaping up to be much stronger than the 3rd. Probably GIGM will do $0.20 EPS in Q4 and that sets the stage for $1 plus EPS in 2008.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
Powerful day yesterdy.......
Oversold
Down in the Pre-Market this morning.
GIGAMEDIA LTD (NasdaqGS:GIGM)
Pre-Market: $20.11 -0.99 or(-4.67%) as of 9:04AM ET on 11/14/07
Technicals
Close Above the 50-day EMA
Close Above the 13-day EMA
Percentage Gainer
Price Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
1.27%above 13-day EMA
10.50%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 2
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Nov 14
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $998.75
P/E Ratio: 32.39
PEG Ratio: 0.83
Next Earnings: 03/18/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform
Q3 2007 GigaMedia Limited Earnings Release - Before Market Open
• GigaMedia Limited Earnings Call scheduled for 8:00 am ET today
REFILE-UPDATE - Taiwan's GigaMedia Q3 beats Street expectations
at Reuters (Wed 8:21am)
Gigamedia Q3 results.......
GIGAMEDIA LTD (GIGM): * Q3: record revenues, up 76 percent y-o-y * Third quarter GAAP earnings per share $0.18 * Third quarter non-GAAP earnings per share $0.19 * Third quarter revenue rose 76 percent to $43 million * Third quarter non-GAAP diluted earnings per share $0.17 * Forecasts to launch Hellgate: London in the second to third quarter of 2008 and Holic in the second half of 2008 * Reuters Estimates third quarter earnings per share view $0.14, revenue view $42.36 million * Forecasts continued strong performance in gaming software business in fourth quarter * Says retained financial advisors to assist with planned disposal of legacy business unit * Says remain in discussions with identified buyers concerning potential sale of the business
Yesterday's closing chart.......
Does anybody have the info from the conference call, unfortunately I wasn't able to listen to it and I won't be able to listen to the replay until later tonight. I see the stock is down over $2, i was thinking about buying back into the stock, but I am concerned about what was said on the conference call, (and if anything they said would cause the stock to tumble 10%)
Thanks
Quote from: eggman11 on November 14, 2007, 09:51:25 AM
Does anybody have the info from the conference call, unfortunately I wasn't able to listen to it and I won't be able to listen to the replay until later tonight. I see the stock is down over $2, i was thinking about buying back into the stock, but I am concerned about what was said on the conference call, (and if anything they said would cause the stock to tumble 10%)
Thanks
I'm listening to it now, I'll get back to you in a moment. I think the 10% drop is due to the sequential decline in EPS (which I believe is caused by seasonality). Also the stock was up 28% yesterday.
So far nothing in the conference call to take the stock down 10% in my opinion ... it is entering the Q&A session now.
[/quote]
I'm listening to it now, I'll get back to you in a moment. I think the 10% drop is due to the sequential decline in EPS (which I believe is caused by seasonality). Also the stock was up 28% yesterday.
[/quote]
Thanks David,
I am looking forward to one of your usual excellent CC summaries when you are done listening to the call.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 14, 2007, 10:18:59 AM
So far nothing in the conference call to take the stock down 10% in my opinion ... it is entering the Q&A session now.
Nothing negative in the Q&A session either. I guess the stock is down today because it was up 28% yesterday and EPS for this quarter wasn't inspiring for continued buying, therefore profit taking kicked in.
I took a few notes:
- Over the next few days a press release will be out about a new partnership between GIGM and Electronic Arts (ERTS), the largest gaming company in the World. The partnership is for GIGM to operate one of ERTS's online game in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao;
- MahJong for $$ didn't start as well as expected, but everything was resolved now and they're seeing positive momentum now. The exclusivity rights for the company currently partnering with GIGM here just ended. There wasn't any contribution from MahJong in Q3 (not to be expected either);
- Japanese suite of games beta version to be launched before Christmas. The real deal will be launched in Q1 2008 and management expects a strong contribution from this in 2008;
- Hellgate: London is expected to be launched just in Q2 or Q3 2008. There was already a very significant marketing effort which will continue.
All in all I think today's weakness in GIGM is an attractive long term buying opportunity.
Ahhh, just saw your new message eggman11 ... well, this wasn't excellent, but, better than nothing. :) Will make a better one after the close.
Updated 15-Nov-07 09:07 ET Upgrade for gigm
Coverage Reit/Price Tgt Changed*Sort alphabetically | Sort by brokers
Company Ticker Brokerage Firm Ratings Change Price Target
Labor Ready LRW BMO Capital Markets Market Perform $20 » $19
AutoZone AZO BMO Capital Markets Underperform $105 » $102
Sina SINA RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform $39 » $58
Potash POT RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $145 » $155
Genius Products GNPI RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform $3 » $2.50
Fifth Third FITB RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform $32 » $31
Applied Materials AMAT AmTech Research Buy $25 » $24
Bear Stearns BSC Punk, Ziegel & Co Mkt Perform $120 » $109
Network Appliance NTAP Needham & Co Buy $32 » $34
Daktronics DAKT Needham & Co Buy $34 » $26
Longs Drug LDG Lehman Brothers Overweight $60 » $65
HHGregg HGG Lehman Brothers Overweight $17 » $19
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock GLDD Lehman Brothers Equal-weight $10 » $10.50
Analog Devices ADI Lehman Brothers Equal-weight $36 » $34
AmeriGas Partners APU Lehman Brothers Underweight $35.50 » $37.50
Marshall & Ilsley MI Stifel Nicolaus Buy $50 » $38
Applied Materials AMAT Stifel Nicolaus Buy $27 » $26
MRU Holdings UNCL Kaufman Bros Buy $9 » $10
Basin Water BWTR Roth Capital Hold $9 » $8
GSE Systems, Inc. GVP Roth Capital Buy $8 » $11
GigaMedia GIGM Roth Capital Buy $22 » $25
Tsakos Energy TNP Cantor Fitzgerald Buy $84 » $42
Charlotte Russe CHIC Friedman Billings Mkt Perform $15 » $18
Nastech Pharm NSTK Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform $14 » $8
ITT Industries ITT Friedman Billings Mkt Perform $69 » $68
as promised by the Mgmt:
GigaMedia and Electronic Arts Bring Basketball to Asia with Hot Sports Title, NBA Street Online
Friday , November 16, 2007 04:21ET
TAIPEI, Taiwan, Nov. 16 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM) announced today that it has secured an exclusive license from Electronic Arts Inc. ("EA"), the world's leading developer and publisher of interactive entertainment, to offer and operate the hot new sports game NBA Street Online in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.
NBA Street Online is an exciting online version of EA's enormously popular NBA games series, featuring fast-paced street basketball action with today's biggest NBA superstars, all in true-to-life detail.
"Sports games are a huge, untapped market in Asia, and EA is a sports superstar," stated GigaMedia Limited Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang.
"Everyone knows the great basketball games from EA," explained CEO Arthur Wang. "Now we are taking it online in Asia with NBA Street Online, one of the best and most exciting sports games ever."
Basketball is the world's most popular professional sport and NBA players are some of the hottest stars in Asia.
"We are very excited to be partnering with GigaMedia on this project and delivering it first in Taiwan," stated President Jon Niermann of EA Asia. "Basketball is the #1 sport in Taiwan and we are confident of continued great success in the sport with NBA Street Online."
"We are thrilled to partner with EA and the NBA to bring the hottest sports game online to millions of fans in new high-growth markets," stated CEO Arthur Wang.
Under the terms of the agreement, GigaMedia has exclusive rights to operate NBA Street Online in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau for three years.
"We are committed to building a dominant online entertainment brand in Asia, partnering with the world's top game developers like EA, and delivering a full range of today's most relevant content -- all leveraging a massive and growing network of over 68 million users," added CEO Arthur Wang.
NBA Street Online is an easy to control, fast-paced street basketball game. The game features various playing modes to practice or take on NBA superstars, enabling gamers to build skill and reputation, unlocking new challenges. NBA Street Online features special elements that are designed specifically for the online multiplayer experience including matchmaking, specialized player customization, and the ability to create your own clubs to play online with friends and defend your court. Realistic gameplay and true- to-life details make NBA stars jump to life and powerful community functions and various in-game items allow gamers to live and breathe basketball like never before. NBA Street Online features over 200 official NBA players, with logos and uniforms included.
NBA Street Online was co-developed by EA Canada and Neowiz. NBA Street Online is expected to launch in 2008.
GIGM should enter the IBD 100 list this week.
The IBD (Investors Buisines Daily) Top 100 is a list of their top 100 stocks based on Ratings for Earnings and Relative Strength to be on list you must have an earnings rating of over 80 and a relative strength over 80 and a stock price over 16. Before this week earnings announcement their earnings ratings was 76, but now it is at 99. The list get updated once per week in Saturday's newspaper. Although they post it online Friday Night for subscribers(which I am not), but I will buy tomorrows paper. I think GIGM will not only be in top 100 but will make it easily into the top 50 maybe top 30.
Being in the IBD Top 100 will immediately enhance GIGM profile, they are a lot people who only buy the IBD 100 and it is very influential with a lot of active investors. Stock have been known to become mutiple baggers upon entry into the IBD Top 100 I expected a nice pop in the stock price on Monday on heavy volume.
Once I find out the exact ranking I will post it here.
Quote from: eggman11 on November 16, 2007, 03:40:52 PM
GIGM should enter the IBD 100 list this week.
The IBD (Investors Buisines Daily) Top 100 is a list of their top 100 stocks based on Ratings for Earnings and Relative Strength to be on list you must have an earnings rating of over 80 and a relative strength over 80 and a stock price over 16. Before this week earnings announcement their earnings ratings was 76, but now it is at 99. The list get updated once per week in Saturday's newspaper. Although they post it online Friday Night for subscribers(which I am not), but I will buy tomorrows paper. I think GIGM will not only be in top 100 but will make it easily into the top 50 maybe top 30.
Being in the IBD Top 100 will immediately enhance GIGM profile, they are a lot people who only buy the IBD 100 and it is very influential with a lot of active investors. Stock have been known to become mutiple baggers upon entry into the IBD Top 100 I expected a nice pop in the stock price on Monday on heavy volume.
Once I find out the exact ranking I will post it here.
The list hasn't been updated yet online. Overall rating 97=A+, Still "best in Group" (out of 42 stocks) all categories, except attractiveness where it has fallen to 2nd place. They have GIGM grouped in with the internet-software stocks.
Actually, I kind of doubt it's going to make the list, but am hoping so.
You were right Eggman, GIGM debuted on the list at #25. ;D
Thanks Big Sully,
#25 Debut pretty good, we should see move up on high volume come Monday. ;D
Eggman, don't be disappointed if it doesn't immediately rise dramatically next week. For one thing IBD always preaches to only buy within 5% of key levels, like confirmed major support areas or within 5% of a pivot point on breakout of a solid base, with confirming indicators, mainly volume. They also preach to never buy overextended. I don't think GIGM is overextended at all anymore, but is now forming a base.
Alot of people think the IBD 100 is an automatic buy list, but it's not. They repeatedly state as much in their paper. It's those that don't read and just buy because it's on the list that are always condemning IBD.
What GIGM does have going for it is that was already above $15 ( an IBD requirement) before it ever appeared on the list. Some of those that have had strong fundamentals and momentum and the only thing keeping them off the list was the $15 requirement, finally met that requirement and then almost immediately sell off after debuting on the list in an already overextended state. ICOC, IDSA, NGA are just a few that come to mind. Well NGA was already destined to be removed anyway because the dummies did a stock split.
GIGM's going to do just fine and I really believe that. Like I said before, it's a keeper, no need to watch too closely. I look for it to stay on the IBD 100 for a very long time.
David, I do not understand this SEC Form 4.
Is it a mis-print or a subsidiary to GIGM??
It is displaying 2. Issuer Name and Ticker or Trading Symbol;
GIGAMEDIA LTD [ GIGA] not GIGM
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1105101.htm (http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1105101.htm)
http://www.secform4.com/filings/1105101/000093583607000379.htm (http://www.secform4.com/filings/1105101/000093583607000379.htm)
Hmm, we still don't have the 3rd quarter conference call transcript at GIGM's website (http://www.gigamedia.com.tw/conference.htm). These conference call transcripts are a nice service they provide to investors.
Analysts now expect $0.18 EPS for the 4th quarter of 2007 and $0.20 EPS for the 1st quarter of 2008 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=GIGM). I actually think we'll get the $0.20 right here in this quarter, because of very strong seasonality.
Longer term, as BigSully1 says, "GIGM is a keeper".
Hi David,
often you said that movements of 3sof portfolios are totally indipendent from market environment.
I see that in those last weeks the 3sof multiplied by a factor of three the bad returns the market had, so the beta is 3 and not "indipendent".
I think you should implement some strategy to reduce the volatility of the portfolio. Volatility is something pretty bad and great returns over the long term can be totally destroyed by a couple of weeks like we had in November.
Cheers,
Tera
QuoteHi David,
often you said that movements of 3sof portfolios are totally independent from market environment.
I see that in those last weeks the 3sof multiplied by a factor of three the bad returns the market had, so the beta is 3 and not "independent".
Yes, short term evidence shows you're right. The Main is still beating the return of the S&P 500 by a factor of 12 to 1, or by 12 percentage points in 2007.
QuoteI think you should implement some strategy to reduce the volatility of the portfolio. Volatility is something pretty bad and great returns over the long term can be totally destroyed by a couple of weeks like we had in November.
Only if one is a victim of volatility. If one ignores it, he should come out allright over the long term. Anyway, I wouldn't know how to reduce the volatility, unless I became a short term trader which would be very hard to follow. My plan is to find great companies to invest for the long term and then do it, ignoring short term fluctuations.
It has been a very tough year, this 2007. Hopefully 2008 will be more smooth. Thanks for your comments terainvestment :)
The next big positive news release I'm expecting from GIGM in early December is the press release announcing the launch of the Japanese suite of games. Only people who listened to the conference calls know the company has been working for more than a year on this project, since it never came up on any press release.
This business segment alone has the potential to double GIGM's revenues and profits in a couple of years, in my view. I hope we'll have some more details in the upcoming press release.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
enjoy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyBKtsfDq5k
&
GIGM: Short Interest DN 11.6% to 2.2M in Mid Nov 2007
Tuesday , November 27, 2007 16:18ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 11.6% to 2,160,011 shares as reported in mid-November, 2007. Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,722,855, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
;)
Quote from: la-onda on November 29, 2007, 09:11:02 AM
enjoy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyBKtsfDq5k
&
GIGM: Short Interest DN 11.6% to 2.2M in Mid Nov 2007
Tuesday , November 27, 2007 16:18ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 11.6% to 2,160,011 shares as reported in mid-November, 2007. Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,722,855, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
;)
Nº 1 game? That would probably mean another $1 B added to GIGM's market cap (or a double from current levels). The company has already spent a lot of money with HellGate: London and still didn't receive a dime. When the game opens for subscribers in 2008 ... it can have a very meaningful impact in GIGM's revenues and profits.
GIGM is a keeper.
The suite of Japanese games press release and the general market move to the upside that I expect between now and the end of 2007 should put GIGM where it belongs given the current fundamental information, which is $25 a share.
In 2008 I expect to see maybe $40-$50, depending on how the new initiatives do.
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
GIGM is looking good for a push up towards the end of the year. I wonder when will we get the Japanese suite of games press release, management said it would be in early December.
nice video:
http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html?clipId=10393271&channel=Market+Strategy&cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=&cm_ite=#10393271
nice chart:
GigaMedia Invests in Top Game Studio XLGames
Tuesday December 11, 5:15 am ET
Partnership with Creator of Lineage to Drive Regional Games Business
TAIPEI, Taiwan, Dec. 11 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) announced today a strategic partnership with and investment in hot game development studio XLGames Inc. ("XLGames").
ADVERTISEMENT
XLGames is founded by gaming legend Jake Song, renowned as the creator of The Kingdom of the Winds -- one of the world's first MMORPGs, and Lineage -- the most popular online game franchise in history. The company enjoys a senior management team with deep industry experience and outstanding talent, and plans to develop games that will define leadership of the next generation of online games.
"Jake Song and his team are superstars -- some of the world's greatest game developers," stated GigaMedia President Thomas Hui. "We are thrilled to partner with such a tremendously talented team and look forward to working closely with them on their new MMORPG, which should rock the world."
"GigaMedia is an unrivaled gateway to Asia -- a great partner and platform for us to showcase world-class, epic entertainment," stated Chief Executive Officer Jake Song of XLGames. "With GigaMedia's game expertise and huge pan- Asian platform, we look forward to a highly successful partnership."
The investment in XLGames is the latest step in GigaMedia's plan to build the region's leading online entertainment platform, with a scope that spans all of Asia.
The partnership strengthens GigaMedia's rapidly growing pan-Asian entertainment platform, a one-stop solution for game developers and entertainment providers addressing over 68 million registered users in the region's huge and lucrative market.
Pursuant to the terms of the strategic partnership with XLGames, GigaMedia has made an investment in XLGames and obtained board representation and certain strategic rights.
About GigaMedia
GigaMedia Limited (Singapore registration number: 199905474H) is a major provider of online entertainment software and services. GigaMedia develops and licenses software for online gaming. GigaMedia also operates online games businesses including FunTown, a leading Asian casual games portal and the world's largest online MahJong game site in terms of revenue, and T2CN, a leading online casual sports game operator in China. More information on GigaMedia can be obtained from http://www.gigamedia.com.tw .
About XLGames
XLGames Inc. was founded in Seoul, Korea in 2003 by NCSoft's former Executive Vice President and Head of Worldwide Development, Jake Song, creator of Lineage, one of the most popular and successful MMORPGs of all time. XLGames also develops games in its subsidiary office in Austin, Texas, to help insure the company's products have strong appeal to the diverse cultural preferences of both Asian and American gamers. XLGames' global game design team collaborates on all aspects of art, engineering and design.
The statements included above and elsewhere in this press release that are not historical in nature are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. GigaMedia cautions readers that forward-looking statements are based on the Company's current expectations and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements. Information as to certain factors that could cause actual results to vary can be found in GigaMedia's Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2007.
For further information contact:
Brad Miller
Investor Relations Director
Tel: +886-2-2656-8016
Email:
[email protected]
Thanks for posting GIGM's press release BigSully1:
• GigaMedia Invests in Top Game Studio XLGames (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071211/hktu001.html?.v=81)
PR Newswire (Tue 5:15am)
Because the text lacks financial details, traders used it as an excuse to close the gap at $19.88. Good buying opportunity if you're not in yet.
QuoteBecause the text lacks financial details, traders used it as an excuse to close the gap at $19.88. Good buying opportunity if you're not in yet.
Not so good after all, since GIGM fell down some more after the FED rate decision.
GIGM doesn't sell $1 in the US and its business is totally independent from the economic cycle. There's no fundamental reason to move it in tandem with the general market, but traders do it anyway as they get in and out of the market.
I see GIGM earning $1 per share in 2008, but let's stay with the $0.94 analysts, on average, predict (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=GIGM). This would mean 44.6% EPS growth from one year to the next. And the forward p/e is 20.2. The p/e is half of the growth rate.
And with GIGM's new initiatives we can be positively surprised in 2008. You see, GIGM has been investing a lot of money in new games and most of them still aren't for sale. They still don't generate any revenues, they're just adding to costs.
Using BigSully's words, "GIGM is a keeper".
Friday , December 14, 2007 04:14 ET
TAIPEI, Taiwan, Dec. 14 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company"; Nasdaq: GIGM) announced today a strategic partnership with and investment in leading game development studio Neostorm Holdings Limited ("Neostorm").
Neostorm is one of the largest independent game developers in South Korea. The company was originally formed by the merger of four separate online games studios, creating a powerful full-range company with extensive technology, development and production capabilities. Neostorm focuses on the enormous casual games market targeting the "medium-core" gamer. Neostorm has a top-tier management and development team composed of experienced professionals with strong track records at leading game companies, including NCsoft Corporation, Nexon Corporation and NHN Corporation.
"Neostorm is a game development powerhouse," stated GigaMedia President Thomas Hui. "We are very excited to partner with them and continue strengthening our portfolio of world-class entertainment content."
"With unparalleled reach and an extensive network of strong strategic partners, GigaMedia brings to bear tremendous resources," stated Chief Executive Officer Chris Kim of Neostorm. "Together, we are positioned to capture enormous regional opportunities in online games."
The agreement strengthens GigaMedia's ability to develop and source popular online games and distribute them throughout the region.
"We are rapidly building an exciting regional online entertainment business with strong competitive advantages and operating synergies," stated President Thomas Hui. "Neostorm is an outstanding partner whose games will help fuel strong long-term growth."
Pursuant to the terms of the strategic partnership with Neostorm, GigaMedia has made an investment and obtained board representation, options for additional investment, and certain strategic rights.
Currently, Neostorm has four online casual titles under development with launch dates for three of them expected in 2008.
About GigaMedia
GigaMedia Limited (Singapore registration number: 199905474H) is a major provider of online entertainment software and services. GigaMedia develops and licenses software for online gaming. GigaMedia also operates online games businesses including FunTown, a leading Asian casual games portal and the world's largest online MahJong game site in terms of revenue, and T2CN, a leading online casual sports game operator in China. More information on GigaMedia can be obtained from http://www.gigamedia.com.tw .
About Neostorm Holdings Limited
Neostorm Holdings Limited was founded in Seoul, Korea in 2007 by merging four previously independent game development studios into one, creating one of the largest independent game development companies in South Korea. Neostorm is currently working on four medium-core casual game titles, three of which expect to launch in 2008.
The statements included above and elsewhere in this press release that are not historical in nature are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. GigaMedia cautions readers that forward-looking statements are based on the Company's current expectations and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements. Information as to certain factors that could cause actual results to vary can be found in GigaMedia's Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2007.
For further information contact:
Brad Miller, Investor Relations Director
Tel: +886-2-2656-8016
Email:
[email protected]SOURCE GigaMedia Limited
GIGM up 5% on a day like today is nothing to sneeze at.
Press Release Source: GigaMedia Limited
GigaMedia Makes Strategic Investment in Powerful New Game Studio Neostorm
Friday December 14, 4:15 am ET
New 'Roll-Up' One of Largest Casual Studios in Korea
TAIPEI, Taiwan, Dec. 14 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company"; Nasdaq: GIGM) announced today a strategic partnership with and investment in leading game development studio Neostorm Holdings Limited ("Neostorm").
Neostorm is one of the largest independent game developers in South Korea. The company was originally formed by the merger of four separate online games studios, creating a powerful full-range company with extensive technology, development and production capabilities. Neostorm focuses on the enormous casual games market targeting the "medium-core" gamer. Neostorm has a top-tier management and development team composed of experienced professionals with strong track records at leading game companies, including NCsoft Corporation, Nexon Corporation and NHN Corporation.
"Neostorm is a game development powerhouse," stated GigaMedia President Thomas Hui. "We are very excited to partner with them and continue strengthening our portfolio of world-class entertainment content."
"With unparalleled reach and an extensive network of strong strategic partners, GigaMedia brings to bear tremendous resources," stated Chief Executive Officer Chris Kim of Neostorm. "Together, we are positioned to capture enormous regional opportunities in online games."
The agreement strengthens GigaMedia's ability to develop and source popular online games and distribute them throughout the region.
"We are rapidly building an exciting regional online entertainment business with strong competitive advantages and operating synergies," stated President Thomas Hui. "Neostorm is an outstanding partner whose games will help fuel strong long-term growth."
Pursuant to the terms of the strategic partnership with Neostorm, GigaMedia has made an investment and obtained board representation, options for additional investment, and certain strategic rights.
Currently, Neostorm has four online casual titles under development with launch dates for three of them expected in 2008.
About GigaMedia
GigaMedia Limited (Singapore registration number: 199905474H) is a major provider of online entertainment software and services. GigaMedia develops and licenses software for online gaming. GigaMedia also operates online games businesses including FunTown, a leading Asian casual games portal and the world's largest online MahJong game site in terms of revenue, and T2CN, a leading online casual sports game operator in China. More information on GigaMedia can be obtained from http://www.gigamedia.com.tw .
About Neostorm Holdings Limited
Neostorm Holdings Limited was founded in Seoul, Korea in 2007 by merging four previously independent game development studios into one, creating one of the largest independent game development companies in South Korea. Neostorm is currently working on four medium-core casual game titles, three of which expect to launch in 2008.
The statements included above and elsewhere in this press release that are not historical in nature are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. GigaMedia cautions readers that forward-looking statements are based on the Company's current expectations and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements. Information as to certain factors that could cause actual results to vary can be found in GigaMedia's Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2007.
For further information contact:
Brad Miller, Investor Relations Director
Tel: +886-2-2656-8016
Email:
[email protected]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: GigaMedia Limited
GIGM recently announced two partial acquisitions:
• GigaMedia Invests in XLGames (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071211/gigamedia_xlgames.html?.v=1)
AP (Tue, Dec 11)
• GigaMedia Makes Strategic Investment in Powerful New Game Studio Neostorm (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071214/hkf002.html?.v=69)
PR Newswire (Fri, Dec 14)
The press releases lack financial details and usually the market doesn't like that, at least over the short term, because it brings some uncertainty to the table. "How much have they paid? How did they finance the acquisitions? What are the risks and potential of the newly acquired companies?"
Of course I don't have an answer for these questions, it isn't public information. I guess all the details will be expressed when the company files the 10-Q with the SEC relative to Q4 2007. This will probably happen in mid February.
Anyway, these investments show GIGM has plenty of cash and management is confident about the future of online gaming in Asia. It appears to me that GIGM will rapidly become the owner/operator of several online games ... At least I see HellGate: London, Holic and now these three games coming to the market in 2008 from Neostorm. Not counting the Japanese suite of games ... by the way, this press release should come out before the year closes.
Now, there are companies outthere with just 1 game which are worth more than GIGM, can you believe it?
I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.
Just in case anyone did not see this (from the yahoo boards):
Criterion increases ownership 18-Dec-07 08:15 pm
http://www.secinfo.com/dsHsj.ucz.htm#1stPage
Criterion Capital Management filed a stmnt of ownership with the SEC today showing current holdings in GIGM of:
Aggregate Amount Beneficially Owned by Each Reporting Person 7,055,778
11. Percent of Class Represented by Amount in Row (9) 13.4%
Ken
Hanbit Soft Finds Solace From Overseas Game Sales
By Cho Jin-seo
Staff Reporter
Hanbit Soft is transforming itself into a global game publisher as Korea's online game market gets saturated by scores of new games. The company said on Wednesday that its previous game ``Granado Espada'' is now earning around 3 billion won every month from subscription fees and game item sales from 20 countries, mainly thanks to its surprising popularity in China. More than 4 million Chinese have signed up for the multiplayer role-playing game, in which thousands of gamers form a virtual society and play against, or along with each other.
The firm is even more upbeat about the global launching of its new game ``Hellgate: London'' next month, which is being developed by famous U.S. game producer Bill Roper.
``We are currently the only game company in Korea that earns much more overseas than domestically,'' its public relations manager Lee Soo-hyun said, saying the accumulated sales of ``Granado Espada'' could reach 50 billion won next year. ``The income from foreign countries will take a larger portion in our revenue next year.''
South Korea's online multiplayer games such as ``Lineage'' of NCsoft and ``Granado Espada'' of Hanbit had the reputation as the world's most advanced and most addictive ones. But from last year, big game firms have struggled to produce hit games in Korea, while gamers are becoming fond of online or offline games made in the United States, Japan and even China.
Hanbit is no stranger to failure. The company had raked up cash as the local distributor of American games such as ``StarCraft'' and ``Diablo,'' both of which were incredibly huge hits here. Hoping to make its own hit game rather than to import another foreign-made game, the firm reportedly spent more than 10 billion won on developing ``Granado Espada'' until last year. But the ambitious project failed to attract Korean gamers, and Hanbit reported 2.7 billion won in operating losses last year, compared to 2.9 billion won in profits in 2006.
Meanwhile, Hanbit had seen unexpected profits by selling a tiny golf game ``Pangya,'' which became its first product to earn more than 30 billion won overseas. Currently, ``Pangya'' and ``Granado Espada'' are the two main profit sources, Lee said.
``Online games are not a one-time sales items like a movie,'' Kim Young-man, the chief executive, said in the press release. ``To judge whether a game is a success or not, one should wait for about two years.''
Analysts see that the game firms should turn their eyes to foreign markets in order to survive. According to Mirae Asset Securities, the global online game market is expected to grow to over $10 billion by 2009, with an annual growth of around 25 percent.
The stock market, however, has been less enthusiastic than Kim. Hanbit's stock price peaked at 18,250 in July but has plummeted to around 7,000 won in just five months when the launch of ``Hellgate:London'' was delayed.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2007/12/123_16247.html
&
GigaMedia Scores Hot Game Title Hellgate: London®
Expected to be The Monster Hit of 2007
TAIPEI, Taiwan, December 14, 2006 - GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: GIGM) announced today that it has secured an exclusive license to offer and operate the highly anticipated action game Hellgate: London® in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.
"Hellgate: London is the hottest new game for 2007 - created by the same team of game giants that brought Diablo and Warcraft to the world," stated GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. "Hellgate: London is going to be a monster hit."
Hellgate: London® is the creation of the fabled Flagship Studios and is distributed by leading international game publisher HanbitSoft, Inc.
"Flagship and HanbitSoft are the Steven Spielberg and Pixar of the game world," stated CEO Wang. "Hellgate: London is their next-generation product and we are looking at a blockbuster."
Flagship Studios was founded in 2003 by a team of executives and developers renowned for numerous #1-selling games and multiple Game-of-the-Year awards to their credit, including the worldwide best-selling Diablo®, Starcraft® and Warcraft® games.
HanbitSoft is a leading international publisher of online games, with a long track record of successful large scale multi-player games such as Granado Espada, Neo Steam, Neo Baseball and PangYa.
"We are excited to partner with GigaMedia and its leading FunTown casual game portal," stated Tony Park, President of International Business at HanbitSoft. "The combination of HanbitSoft's gaming publishing track record and GigaMedia's large player base and operating team ensures that Hellgate: London will be a huge success in Asia."
"Joining with HanbitSoft and Flagship Studios is joining the dream team," explained GigaMedia CEO Wang. "We are thrilled and expect this partnership will significantly accelerate and extend our robust revenue and earnings growth in 2007 and beyond."
Any possibly negative effect for GIGM because of this? Can other European States follow?
Germany set to prohibit online gambling
Bloomberg NewsPublished: December 27, 2007
BERLIN: Online gambling will be banned in Germany starting Jan. 1 as part of an accord with states that preserves the country's state monopoly for lotteries and most forms of betting.
All 16 German state legislatures voted by mid-December to approve the new online-betting laws, which the states negotiated after the Federal Constitutional Court overturned earlier rules.
The new rules ban any form of Web-based gambling or brokering of games over the Internet.
The states may order Internet service providers to block Web sites of illegal betting operations and banks to stop money transfers to them.
The rules' definition of illegal gaming includes placing a bet from German territory over the Web with a company based outside Germany.
Today in Business
Warren Buffett, investor on a hot streak, makes more dealsA U.S. charity gets paid on a claim over risky mortgage investments.China's central bank chief reaffirms tight money policy for 2008
Not surprisingly, the new regulations have drawn criticism from Internet betting companies and lottery brokers like Bwin Interactive Entertainment, Fluxx and Tipp24.
Tipp24 said last week that it regarded the regulations "as clearly contrary to law and will sue for its rights if necessary."
Bwin sued four German states in October seeking to continue offering online bets after the rules come into effect. The cases are pending.
Bwin operates a site under a license originally issued by the communist East German government before unification and another portal under a Gibraltar license.
The company claims that both permits prevail over the new online-betting ban and will continue to operate its sites.
"We think that in the second half of 2008 the European Court of Justice will have stopped this futile effort to keep us out of Germany," Hartmut Schultz, a spokesman for Bwin, said in an interview this month.
The European Commission, the European Union's regulator, called on Germany to reconsider the total ban on online betting, saying the step was disproportional. In April, Germany rejected that demand, arguing the rules were needed to protect citizens from the dangers of gambling.
"I am pretty sure the commission will escalate the process and send a formal warning the day after" the new law takes effect, Wolfgang Kubicki, leader of the Free Democrats, or FDP, opposition party in the Schleswig-Holstein Parliament, said last week. "Berlin will have something in the mail on Jan. 3."
The commission can sue EU member states to force them to comply with EU law.
At least 13 of Germany's 16 states had submitted the ratification documents for the ban to take effect by Thursday, said Eric Braum, a spokesman for the Hesse government, which monitors the process.
"That's the required majority and we expect to have all the rest coming in by New Year's Eve," he said.
The new regulations will also outlaw advertising of gambling over the Internet and on television, stating that advertising in print and other media could no longer "directly invite, incite or prompt" customers to play; it may only "inform" about the possibility to do so.
hold on David!!!
Without EU approval this law is NOT in place;
they just want to protect the gambling and betting industry that is oprganised by the "state"
Germany set to prohibit online gambling
......
The company claims that both permits prevail over the new online-betting ban and will continue to operate its sites.
"We think that in the second half of 2008 the European Court of Justice will have stopped this futile effort to keep us out of Germany," Hartmut Schultz, a spokesman for Bwin, said in an interview this month.
The European Commission, the European Union's regulator, called on Germany to reconsider the total ban on online betting, saying the step was disproportional. In April, Germany rejected that demand, arguing the rules were needed to protect citizens from the dangers of gambling.
"I am pretty sure the commission will escalate the process and send a formal warning the day after" the new law takes effect, Wolfgang Kubicki, leader of the Free Democrats, or FDP, opposition party in the Schleswig-Holstein Parliament, said last week. "Berlin will have something in the mail on Jan. 3."
The commission can sue EU member states to force them to comply with EU law.
At least 13 of Germany's 16 states had submitted the ratification documents for the ban to take effect by Thursday, said Eric Braum, a spokesman for the Hesse government, which monitors the process. "That's the required majority and we expect to have all the rest coming in by New Year's Eve," he said. The new regulations will also outlaw advertising of gambling over the Internet and on television, stating that advertising in print and other media could no longer "directly invite, incite or prompt" customers to play; it may only "inform" about the possibility to do so.
&
Countries voting for gambling state contract-Online Betting before Origin
The News-DJ pressetext.de: Germany: Countries are voting for gambling state contract-Online Betting before Origin
Hamburg (pte/19.12.2007/15: 23) - The German federal states should the proposal
The gambling state contract have approved. This affirms the Market leader in Internet-Lotto, Tipp24 https: / / www.tipp24.de, in his Today's press release. The contract is due to start on the first of January 2008 in force Occur.
It is envisaged that the provision of gambling on the Internet only One year to allow. In addition, some companies Requirements. "As a provider of lotteries on the Internet, we are coming in Year by the State Treaty was not so badly affected. Operators of Wett-Seiten
Have significantly harder, "says von Tipp24-Pressesprecherin Andrea Fratini on the request of press.
"The approval of the state treaty has not yet been confirmed by all the countries,
We will, however, in each case the Treaty to act, "continues Fratini.
Vertragskonform means, in this case, that certain requirements in the Promotional activities of the gambling provider must be respected. "
One-year is a transitional arrangement whereby the Internet business Gambling for the vendor after a year no longer be possible.
On the other hand, we will in any case take legal action, as well Tipp24 them Involved, "said Fratini. Further development until 2009 was currently but not yet in sight.
The state contract is not only in the eyes of the gambling providers to Wobbly legs. The technical feasibility of the proposal is questioned (Press reported: http://www.pressetext.at/pte.mc?pte=071206017). It also see legal experts contradictions that the German Constitution and European law. The EU and the Federal Cartel Office had this Clear positions. "We are sure that the contract is not durable and we preserved with a possible lawsuit succeed, "stresses Fratini to press.[/color]
translated by Google:
http://www.ad-hoc-news.de/Marktberichte/de/14697454/DJ+pressetextde+Deutschland+L&%23228uender+stimmen+f&%23252uer
&
German court rules internet gambling ban an 'impossibility'
By Burke Hansen in Las Vegas
Published Tuesday 6th November 2007 19:46 GMT
The the Administrative Court of Appeal in Hessen state today overturned a ruling by a lower court that had prohibited Austrian online gambling operator Bwin from providing gambling services over the internet to German customers. The ruling focused on what the court described as the practical impossibility of enforcing a ban on internet gambling - the impossibility of which rendered the law for all intents and purposes "null and void". Thomson
Financial reports
&
Betting companies to take legal action against German state monopoly on gambling
FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - Online betting companies including BWIN Interactive Entertainment AG (Vienna: BWIN.VI - news) and Fluxx AG are gearing up to file a legal complaint against Germany's state monopoly on lotteries and most forms of betting, law firm Hambach & Hambach head Wulf Hambach told Die Welt newspaper. Hambach said he represents about 20 of the world's biggest betting companies, according to the newspaper.
Germany's states earlier this month ratified an accord solidifying their monopoly on lotteries, online gambling and most forms of sports betting in Germany. The accord will effectively ban private betting companies from operating in the country from tomorrow.
'The accord breaches EU law because it excludes foreign betting companies with EU licenses from the German market,' Hambach said. The newspaper also cited law firm Redeker's Michael Winkelmueller, who represents BWIN and Fluxx, as saying he expects to see legal action by all 3,000 betting companies active in Germany. Germany's states have voted in favor of banning private sports betting companies until 2010, during which time they will develop a system by which private betting companies can obtain concessions.
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/31122007/323/betting-companies-legal-action-against-german-state-monopoly-gambling.html
I have also contacted IR for an offical statement and I will hold GIGM because of the strong Q4 results!
cheers
Oliver
If the market thought that BWIN company was going to get killed by this rulling (which should more directly impact it than GIGM as its an Austrian company operating in Germany) it sure diddnt show that since the October ban news, that company was UP:
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BWIN.VI&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
In your new plan for 2008 you mentioned not selling so quickly for just one news item David, this might be a case where investigating a day or two more might make sense?
Well, if you put SELL in the newsletter I will sell, just seemed there might be more than meets the eye here and its awhile before the whole EU could adopt this stance in 2008 even if the appeals in Germany didnt work, so its got less momentum to impact stock price immediately compared to say a pre announcement of low earnings etc. which would cause a ripple the same day.
David,
you should hope you're right, not wrong! It's the series of "right" decisions that ultimately brings success. I look at this this way: you got 8% of capital available for another investment. If you find a company that will grow 100% in a year, it will definitely be better than GIGM's price potential, in my view. It's just we grew attached to this puppy and it is hard to let go of winners... althought it shouldn't be the case. A squeezed lemon is no longer a "good" lemon. ;)
Quote from: berloga on January 02, 2008, 10:13:24 AM
David,
you should hope you're right, not wrong! It's the series of "right" decisions that ultimately brings success. I look at this this way: you got 8% of capital available for another investment. If you find a company that will grow 100% in a year, it will definitely be better than GIGM's price potential, in my view. It's just we grew attached to this puppy and it is hard to let go of winners... althought it shouldn't be the case. A squeezed lemon is no longer a "good" lemon. ;)
Agreed Berloga, its nice to know there is now an extra space to be occupied, Im sure David already has a few candidates in mind lol.
Once David made the sell official, I didnt blink an eye this time but sold too. Of course, seeing that the price hadnt dropped on such a bad down day in the general market also helped my decision, I felt like it was a good time to sell before the weight of the market caught up to GIGM (which it didnt actually, at least not today since Motley came out with an article to bolster it).
In the old days where we were trying to trade more often I think I might have held GIGM past David's sell recommendation and there were times when I did so with other stocks. In fact I see some ascending trendline support for GIGM here.
But now with the long term approach, I figure if he says to sell he has even better reasons than just technicals!
All that aside, best of luck to all still holding! ;D
short update:
GIGM: Short Interest DN 39.8% to 1.5M at the End of Dec 2007
Thursday , January 10, 2008 16:48ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 39.8% to 1,457,328 shares as reported at month-end December, 2007. Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,073,775, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Insider buying:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5381857
Chart positive again:
fyi:
German Interstate Treaty: EGBA logdes complaint with European Commission
The European Gaming and Betting Association (EGBA) calls on the European Commission to take swift action against the German Interstate Treaty on gaming. The Treaty, which came into force on January 1st and introduces a ban for online gaming and betting (except for horse races) in Germany, is in direct contravention of European Union law. The provisions of the Treaty severely restrict the rights of EGBA's members to provide services under Article 49 of the Treaty of Rome.
The German Interstate Treaty has come into force despite formal objections raised by the European Commission under its notification procedure (Directive 98/34/EC) that the Treaty transgressed EU law. Its adoption shall not only restrict the activities of EU operators but directly challenges the Commission's clear position under the notification procedure itself.
Norbert Teufelberger, Chairman of the EGBA, commented: "Prohibition is not and has never been a solution, be it in our sector or other sectors. It is not a responsible approach and cannot be a substitute to an efficient gaming policy. Focusing on online gaming does not make sense when most recent peer reviewed studies show that although online and offline gaming has a different target audience, players' behaviour is similar whether online or offline! Furthermore, in a regulated environment online gaming allows for higher transparency and traceability!".
Sigrid Ligné, Secretary General of the EGBA added: "The German Interstate Treaty is incompatible with EU law, and its adoption has left us with no other choice but to make a formal complaint to the EC. We urge the Commission now to fast track our complaint and launch infringement proceedings against Germany". ENDS -
Jan 15th 08
insider buying :
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5401777
chart :
Nearly 250K shares added by Criterion, Capital Partners Master Fund in the last two weeks.
awesome news:
GigaMedia Signs Top EA MMORPG Warhammer(R) Online: Age of Reckoning(TM)
Thursday , January 31, 2008 06:20ET
HONG KONG, Jan. 31 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia (Nasdaq: GIGM) announced today it has secured an exclusive license from Electronic Arts to offer and operate the highly anticipated game Warhammer(R) Online: Age of Reckoning(TM) in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.
Warhammer Online is a ground-breaking new massively multiplayer online role-playing game ("MMORPG") set in a fantasy world of war and constant combat. Based on Games Workshop's 25-year tabletop fantasy war game series Warhammer, Warhammer Online creates a rich and immersive virtual world for hundreds of thousands of players to experience the epic nature of war and the glory of battle.
Created by the acclaimed studio EA Mythic, developers of the hit title Dark Age of Camelot(TM), Warhammer Online is one of the most highly anticipated games of 2008 according to numerous industry publications. Over 500,000 gamers have registered for its closed beta test, one of the most successful closed betas for any MMORPG ever.
"We are very excited to work with EA to bring such a blockbuster title to Asia," stated GigaMedia President Thomas Hui. "We expect Warhammer Online's Realm vs Realm(TM) combat and Public Quests(TM) to be enormously popular with hard-core gamers."
"We are thrilled to bring Warhammer Online to Asia and further strengthen our collaboration with GigaMedia as a strategic partner -- bringing the hottest digital entertainment to millions," stated EA Asia President Jon Niermann. "We are confident that, together with GigaMedia, Warhammer Online will be a tremendous success."
Warhammer Online thrusts players into a grim world of perpetual conflict to fight for the Realms of Order (Dwarfs, High Elves, and Empire) or Destruction (Greenskins, Dark Elves, and Chaos). Next-generation Realm vs. Realm game play ensures that players are never fighting alone. With an army of allies at their back, players will defend their homeland, invade enemy realms, and ultimately lead the siege of their enemy's capital city. Every aspect of the game -- every player, every quest, every encounter, and every battle -- can turn the tide of the ongoing war and mean victory for a player's realm!
In Warhammer Online, for the first time ever, players can engage in Public Quests -- multi-stage, communal quests to be completed by allied players fighting together against overwhelming odds. They can also embark on an epic quest to complete the Tome of Knowledge and unlock Warhammer lore, detailed monster information, new abilities, rewards, and major story plotlines. Drawing from a quarter century of highly detailed source material, Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning will bring Games Workshop's fantasy world to life in a way that will allow players to create characters destined for great deeds on the field of battle.
insider buying:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?epo=tenk&ipage=5420069
chart:
chart says it all; GIGM on the run again (without me unfortunately :'()
David,
Ive mentioned a few times be4 that GIGM is one of my favourites. The management team (Wang / Hui) is brilliant & i can expect the stock to do very well over the next 2-3 yrs.
I did scale back my holdings to make room for ETFC & PALM..but i still continue to follow this stock closely.
Long since 6.83 & loving it :)
Nick
here is Zack's GIGM's screen print
David, how about using your new research tool for GIGM?
tia
Oliver
GIGM time again soon? The fundamentals have kept up, earnings coming may 13.
The stock is cheap now and appears to be growing pretty quickly. I think a move above the 50, 100, and 200 mas which are all bunched up is quite possible. The stock price hasn't kept up with the improvement in the company's fundamentals.
awesome David thanks a lot ! >:D >:D
With this additional analysis resource I will definitely continue to be 3SoF subscriber ;)
cheers
O.
short and chart update >:D
GIGM: Short Interest DN 16.1% to 1.8M in Mid Apr 2008
Friday , April 25, 2008 06:00ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 16.1% to 1,803,767 shares as reported in mid-April, 2008.
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 418,395, it would require approximately 5 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
from MelfElf ;)
Bear Flags/Rising Channels aren't always bearish, as we can see in Chart #2. There's no ALWAYS in the stock market, in my experience. LOL. Gigamedia (GIGM) broke out of two of two "Bear" Flags/"Bearish" Rising Channels to the UPSIDE last September and October, but notice that the 50/200DMAs were closely aligned. Those moving averages also gave a false Bearish Cross signal right before GIGM blasted off to the upside. It's better to watch the pattern breakouts/breakdowns rather than Bullish/Bearish crosses of moving averages, in my opinion. The latter can be very misleading.
GIGM: Jumps +1.85%; Vol +110%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Thursday , May 08, 2008 16:21ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: GIGM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $16.19 $16.49 +1.85%
VOLUME 207,247 434,557 +109.68%
#TRADES 1,191 2,457 +106.30%
DAY-HI $16.20 $16.50 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $15.78 $15.78 N/A
chart with more positive indications, BO soon imho
Someone still holding GIGM? IF so, are you planning to hold through earnings?
still holding Se7en, also through earnings (we keep the finger crossed)
cheers
Oliver
GIGM: Short Interest DN 5.8% to 1.7M at the End of Apr 2008
Friday , May 09, 2008 16:18ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 5.8% to 1,699,921 shares as reported at month-end April, 2008.
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 457,545, it would require approximately 4 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
interesting earnings tomorrow, still holding >:D
good luck to all GIGM shareholders
Oliver
GIGM: Jumps +1.93%; Vol +107%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Monday , May 12, 2008 16:21ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: GIGM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $17.14 $17.47 +1.93%
VOLUME 753,559 1,558,694 +106.84%
#TRADES 2,782 6,057 +117.72%
DAY-HI $17.20 $17.80 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $16.31 $16.31 N/A
GIGM: Jumps +1.29%; Vol +56%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , May 27, 2008 16:22ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: GIGM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $17.00 $17.22 +1.29%
VOLUME 340,745 530,360 +55.65%
#TRADES 1,836 3,144 +71.24%
DAY-HI $17.15 $17.29 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $16.63 $16.63 N/A
TODAY'S RAiDAR HEADLINES for GIGM:
05/27/2008 15:18 GIGM: Short Interest DN 12.3% to 1.5M in Mid May 2008 - knobias
Any update regarding GIGM?
cheers
O.
GIGM: Drops -4.20%; Vol +160%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Monday , June 23, 2008 16:21ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong DOWNWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: GIGM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $14.30 $13.70 -4.20%
VOLUME 219,592 571,081 +160.06%
#TRADES 1,071 2,769 +158.54%
DAY-HI $14.87 $14.87 N/A
DAY-LO $14.25 $13.61 LATE-LO
very bad charting now, looking for an entry point below 10!
GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM)Profile: GigaMedia Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and licenses online gaming software, and provides application services, as well as owns and operates an online games portal. It also provides broadband Internet access services. The company, through its subsidiary, Cambridge Entertainment Software Limited, develops and licenses software solutions and application services, including online entertainment and social networking in the Internet-based entertainment markets. It also operates FunTown game portal, an Asian casual game portal that provides online games, including casual games, such as MahJong and various card, chess, and table games, as well as provides services, such as game clubs for players, tournaments related to FunTown's online games, and social networking. In addition, GigaMedia provides broadband Internet access services to consumer and corporate customers through various technologies and products, including cable modems, leased-lines, virtual private network, and other value-added services. It operates primarily in Taiwan, Canada, and Hong Kong. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Market Cap: $715M
Sector: Technology / Internet Software & Services
Website: http://www.gigamedia.com.twTechnical Analysis:GIGM is bearish for the short term and mid term time frames, even though the long term trend is bullish despite the huge volatility we can observe on the charts.
There are two main support levels to mention:
- $13.00 - the long term ascending support (on semi-log scale)
- $12.86 - the January relative low
While I don’t like to buy a falling knife, I feel confident about this support levels and the extreme oversold condition for the chart, as it will provide us a nice setup using for example a 15% maximum risk on this trade against a much bigger potential in play.
Fundamental Analysis:GIGM has nice fundamentals, considering the sector and risks implied on this kind of business. The current market consensus (Reuters) is a 2008FY EPS of $0.82 and a 2009FY EPS of $1.09, so GIGM is trading at just 12 times earnings (2009FY) against a median multiple of 25 for its competitors.
Just with this basic information, I think GIGM is cheap at the current market prices, using the median consensus it should be trading at $20.5 using just the 2008FY EPS as a benchmark. It is understandable that it trades with lower P/E, absorbing the risks of losing an existing license or new adverse legislations, etc, but the bottom line is that GIGM is not exposed to the US market and legislations, so this is an overreaction in my opinion.
Catalysts in Play:
From a Roth Capital research note issued this morning, I see that:
QuoteJapanese site goes live. Our channel checks suggest that the company's
real-money Japanese gaming site went live last night. We continue to view
this as a meaningful growth opportunity for the company and we view this
event as a positive catalyst for shares.
What's the impact? While its tough to forecast the financial impact from
the Japanese site, we believe the opportunity is large considering the
population base, discretionary spending levels, and willingness to gamble
evidenced by the country's large land-based Pachinko business.
For full details I encourage you to read the full research note, where Roth Capital analysts expose their $23 price target and trading thesis:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=46394;image) (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=46388)
Even with this price target, Roth Capital estimates are slightly below the market consensus, and its expectable to watch a few more upgrades soon with the current developments in play.
Trading ThesisWhile applying some TA just to know where the supports are located, this play is more fundamental oriented. We’re basically catching a «falling knife», what generally is something against TA.
I’m looking forward to play this pick as a 1/3 risk/reward ratio, our stop will imply a risk of about 15% against an expected return of 45%.
Trading Plan:Buy GIGM this morning not above $13.75
Trading plan updated, sorry for the delay. ::)
Update:
GIGM was strong for most of the session, but sellers came up at the end, so it closed near the open.
We're just setting a stop level now, following our initial thesis:
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.50
20F:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5751424
how low can it go?
:-X
Update:
Three terrible sessions for GIGM following the tumble in the broad market, forced a breakdown below the $13 level mark. Personally I think this one in particular is too extended, and I expect a rebound at anytime soon, just hope our stop level don't get hit...
Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.50
Stopped GIGM @ $11.50
holy moly :-X :-\
GIGM: Drops -4.26%; Vol +50%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Wednesday, July 02, 2008 16:22ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong DOWNWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: GIGM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $11.03 $10.56 -4.26%
VOLUME 680,342 1,022,612 +50.31%
#TRADES 2,882 4,518 +56.77%
DAY-HI $11.69 $11.69 N/A
DAY-LO $10.78 $10.53 LATE-LO
based no the overbought chart ( as attached below) I am in @ 12.4 to play the bounce (no money left for investing two days ago ::))
GIGM: Jumps +2.70%; Vol +50%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , July 08, 2008 16:22ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: GIGM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $12.97 $13.32 +2.70%
VOLUME 936,541 1,407,868 +50.33%
#TRADES 3,793 5,903 +55.63%
DAY-HI $12.99 $13.45 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $11.51 $11.51 N/A
>:D >:D
GigaMedia Partners with EA and Tencent in China for NBA STREET Online
Thursday , July 17, 2008 03:54ET
HONG KONG, July 17 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited (Nasdaq: GIGM) announced today that it has secured an exclusive license to offer in China the highly anticipated EA SPORTS(TM) title NBA STREET Online, an exciting new sports game from Electronic Arts Inc. (Nasdaq: ERTS), the world's leading developer and publisher of interactive entertainment.
In addition, GigaMedia and EA have entered into a strategic marketing partnership with Tencent Holdings Limited ("Tencent"), a leading provider of Internet, mobile and telecommunications value-added services in China.
"No one delivers sports action like EA and no one has a larger or more active community than Tencent," stated GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. "The partnership of Giga -- the leading online sports game provider -- with EA and Tencent is truly the Dream Team of online games in China."
NBA STREET Online is a real-time, multi-player online version of EA's phenomenally popular NBA games series, featuring fast-paced street basketball action with today's biggest NBA superstars, all in true-to-life detail.
NBA STREET Online addresses a huge fan base in China, which already represents the largest NBA market outside the United States with an estimated 300 million Chinese playing basketball -- making it the favorite sports game among China's youth, according to the NBA. NBA.com / China has rapidly become one of the most popular sports sites in China and NBA is consistently the most searched sports term on Baidu.com, the top search engine in the nation.
"We are honored to partner with EA, the NBA and Tencent to bring the incomparable action, style, and excitement of NBA basketball to China in EA's brilliant new game," stated GigaMedia President Thomas Hui. "For the 300 million basketball players and millions of gamers in China, EA's NBA STREET Online is a monster slam dunk."
"We are very pleased to have top game provider GigaMedia and top Internet company Tencent as our partners for NBA STREET Online in China," said Jon Niermann, President of EA Asia. "Basketball is one of the most popular sports in China and with this powerful partnership, we are confident we have a winning formula for NBA STREET Online in the market."
GigaMedia's leadership in online sports games and entertainment and Tencent's position as China's largest Internet service provider provide this partnership with unprecedented market understanding and resources to launch NBA STREET Online in China and drive strong growth. The partnership will enjoy the unmatched reach of the Tencent community, with over 318 million active user accounts on its QQ instant messaging platform as of March 31, 2008.
"We are pleased to join GigaMedia and EA to promote this exciting, world- class product. We believe this game will provide a wonderful sports gaming experience for our users, complementing the large collection of games we already have on our gaming platform. This is a great example of our effort to explore various partnership models with other successful online game companies in providing the best gaming experience to users on our gaming platform," stated Tencent President Martin Lau.
GigaMedia has exclusive rights to offer NBA STREET Online in China for three years.
AP
GigaMedia climbs as 2Q profit beats analyst views
Tuesday August 12, 1:46 pm ET
GigaMedia shares rise after 2nd-quarter profit beats analyst expectations
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of GigaMedia Ltd. rose Tuesday after the Taiwan-based online gaming and online gaming software company reported second-quarter profit above analyst expectations.
GigaMedia shares climbed $1.11, or 9.5 percent, to $12.80 in afternoon trading. The stock has ranged from $10.16 to $25.42 over the past year.
The company said that for the quarter ending June 30 it earned $11.2 million, or 19 cents per share, compared with $10.1 million, or 17 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding certain items, the company earned 20 cents per share in the latest quarter.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a profit of 17 cents per share.
GigaMedia's revenue rose 31 percent to $52.5 million from $40.1 million.
The company's overall revenue was bolstered by increased gaming software and service revenue, which rose 26.2 percent to $36.9 million. GigaMedia also reported growth in online game and service revenue.
GigaMedia did not give specific guidance, but predicted revenue from its gaming software business will be a bit lower in the third quarter than in the second quarter due to a seasonal industry slowdown.
For the year, GigaMedia predicted strong gaming software growth.
The company also expects its online games business to report revenue growth in the second half of 2008.
GigaMedia Appoints New CFO
Tuesday , August 19, 2008 06:00ET
HONG KONG, Aug. 19 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited (Nasdaq: GIGM) today announced the appointment of Mr. Quincy Tang as the company's new Chief Financial Officer.
Mr. Tang joins GigaMedia from Nasdaq-listed technology leader Vimicro International Corporation where he was Chief Financial Officer.
Mr. Tang brings over 20 years of financial and managerial experience to GigaMedia, having served in a number of leadership positions for Internet, media, technology and public accounting firms, including five years as Finance Director for Hong Kong-listed Internet and media company TOM Group and seven years as an auditor at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu.
"We are delighted to have attracted a candidate with Quincy's background and level of expertise," stated GigaMedia Limited President Thomas Hui. "With a wealth of knowledge in media, technology, financial analysis and public company compliance, he is exceptionally well qualified to lead GigaMedia."
"I am thrilled to join GigaMedia - an exciting company with a solid management team and unique business model," stated Quincy Tang. "GigaMedia has terrific opportunities to continue growing through expansion and integration of its entertainment platforms, and I look forward to making contributions that will be accretive to shareholders."
The appointment is effective immediately. Mr. Tang succeeds Thomas Hui who has served as interim CFO since his promotion to President and Chief Operating Officer of GigaMedia Limited in August 2007.
Mr. Tang graduated from Hong Kong Polytechnic University with a professional diploma in accountancy and is a fellow member of the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants, the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants in the United Kingdom and an associate member of the Hong Kong Institute of Chartered Secretaries.
any update from your side Rams?
GIGM: ThinkPanmure Sets @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $18; Analyst Notes
Thursday , August 21, 2008 08:21ET
Issuer: GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM)
Analyst Firm: ThinkPanmure
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price: $18.00
&
GigaMedia
Ahrens also likes GigaMedia a Hong Kong-based firm that trades on the Nasdaq.
"This company is the best of both worlds in both online gambling and online video gaming," he said, with the bulk of its revenue coming from Europe, Asia and Canada.
The shares fetch the same low multiple as many online gambling stocks, Ahrens pointed out, but that valuation is undeserved since "it has never operated in the U.S. and has no plans to" -- thus avoiding the legislative risks that torpedoed the sector following the passage of new laws Stateside and some high-profile prosecutions of operators.
The company, he added, also does "great business in non-gambling online gaming, and recently licensed EA Sports NBA game in China, where the NBA is just huge."
Shares of GigaMedia closed Thursday down 20 cents at $11.59. The stock was as high as $25.42 last November and scraped as low as $10.16 in July
Chart:
good news out:
GIGM: Sale of Legacy Cable and ISP Business; Sees One Time Gain of $8M
Thursday , August 28, 2008 08:32ET
GigaMedia Limited (GIGM) announced the sale of its legacy cable and corporate Internet service provider ("ISP") business, consistent with GigaMedia's focus on the high-margin, high-growth online entertainment sector.
China Network Systems and its affiliates purchased the consumer cable modem and corporate ISP business from GigaMedia for total consideration of as much as $25 million, including approximately $20 million in cash upon closing of the transaction, subject to certain price adjustments, and an additional amount of up to $5 million upon achievement of certain performance benchmarks during the two-year period following the transaction closing.
GigaMedia expects the sale to close shortly, following customary regulatory approvals, and to record a one-time gain of approximately $8 million as a result of the transaction.
GIGM: Drops -2.00%; Vol +88%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , September 09, 2008 16:22ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong DOWNWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: GIGM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
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PRICE $10.08 $9.88 -2.00%
VOLUME 301,786 566,851 +87.83%
#TRADES 1,388 2,511 +80.91%
DAY-HI $10.82 $10.82 N/A
DAY-LO $10.08 $9.84 LATE-LO
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GIGM: New 52-Wk Low @ $9.88 dn 8.5%
Tuesday , September 09, 2008 14:10ET
This is the 1st 52 WEEK LOW alert for GIGM in the past 7 calendar days.
The share price for GigaMedia Limited (NASDAQ NM: GIGM) reached a new 52-week low today, trading at $10.130, down $-0.670 (-6.20%) from its previous close of $10.800.
The Company's previous 52-week low of $10.160 was set 68 days ago on July 03, 2008.
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $15.410. The price has declined more than 34 percent since then.
At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 263,812 shares via 1,197 trades, 45.74% below it's 20day average of 486,160 shares.
This new 52-week low currently puts the stock:
13.32% below its 20day Moving Average of $11.686
15.45% below its 50day Moving Average of $11.982
28.06% below its 100day Moving Average of $14.081
what a bargain......
GIGM: New 52-Wk Low @ $8.150 dn 7.6%
Tuesday , September 16, 2008 11:06ET
This is the 4th 52 WEEK LOW alert for GIGM in the past 7 calendar days.
The share price for GigaMedia Limited (NASDAQ NM: GIGM) reached a new 52-week low today, trading at $8.150, down $-0.670 (-7.60%) from its previous close of $8.820.
The Company's previous 52-week low of $8.610 was set yesterday on September 15, 2008.
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $15.240. The price has declined more than 46 percent since then.
At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 307,270 shares via 1,135 trades, 29.30% below it's 20day average of 434,605 shares.
This new 52-week low currently puts the stock:
27.02% below its 20day Moving Average of $11.168
31.09% below its 50day Moving Average of $11.828
41.24% below its 100day Moving Average of $13.870
is this the bottom???? >:D
nice candle >:D
GIGM: Volume Spike; 23% > 20-adsv, Stock +6.48%
Friday , September 19, 2008 11:50ET
This is the 3rd VOLUME alert for GIGM in the past 7 calendar days.
Trading for GigaMedia Limited (NASDAQ NM: GIGM) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 11:50 ET, the stock had already traded 686,552 shares via 1,677 trades. The cumulative volume is 23.28% above its 20-day average of 556,925. Normally the stock experiences around 2,295 individual trades per session.
So far, today's volume surge has caused a net rise in GIGM's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $8.476, up $0.516 (+6.48%).
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $16.760. The price has declined more than 49 percent since then.
Over the last 10 trading session GIGM has traded in a range between $6.840 and $11.480 and is currently trading 66.66% below its 52-week high of $25.420 set on November 01,2007 and 23.92% above its 52-week low of $6.840 from September 18,2008.
In the previous 3 sessions, GIGM trading has displayed a mixed trend. Closing results have been as follows:
September 18, 2008 --- closed at $7.960 up $0.210 (+2.71%) on 1,907,600 shares
September 17, 2008 --- closed at $7.750 down $0.960 (-11.02%) on 1,106,300 shares
September 16, 2008 --- closed at $8.710 down $0.110 (-1.25%) on 787,200 shares
GigaMedia Completes Sale of Legacy ISP Business; Books One-Time Gain
Thursday , September 25, 2008 05:40ET
HONG KONG, Sept. 25 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited (Nasdaq: GIGM) announced today the successful completion of the sale of its legacy cable and corporate Internet service provider ("ISP") business, consistent with GigaMedia's focus on the high-margin, high-growth online entertainment sector.
GigaMedia expects the transaction to be EPS neutral in 2009. For the third quarter of 2008, GigaMedia expects to record a one-time after-tax gain of approximately $8 million as a result of the sale, which will be partially offset by a one-time write-off of certain assets related to the Asian online game business.
GigaMedia will report the results of operations of the ISP business as a discontinued operation for the third quarter of 2008, and retroactively for all previous quarters, in accordance with U.S. GAAP FAS 144.
This disposal of the last remaining ISP business units effectively concludes GigaMedia's strategic restructuring begun after the arrival of a new management team in 2004.
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GIGM: Short Interest DN 22.9% to 866.8K in Mid Sep 2008
Thursday , September 25, 2008 06:00ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 22.9% to 866,752 shares as reported in mid-September, 2008.
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 646,090, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
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Chart:
5-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: GigaMedia
In March, Matt McComb described GigaMedia as a "profitable, cash-flow positive, debt-free company that's both growing and in an attractive industry." Our CAPS All-Star concludes: "High margins, cash is a significant part of its market cap, and online gaming ain't goin anywhere."
The company has a clean balance sheet, plenty of cash in relation to its total liabilities. Also, new U.S. legislation aimed at loosening up restrictions on real money gambling in the U.S, may provide new opportunities for [GigaMedia] to expand. Plus, other gaming companies are looking at [GigaMedia] as a possible acquisition. In addition, the game Luna, appears to be a fantastic game. ... Finally, low P/E compared to sector and earnings that have barely flinched during the economic downturn.
Based on the aggregated intelligence of 130,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, online gaming company GigaMedia (Nasdaq: GIGM) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at GigaMedia's business, and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.
Press Release Source: GigaMedia Limited
GigaMedia to Report First-Quarter 2009 Financial Results on June 9
On Friday May 22, 2009, 6:45 am EDT
HONG KONG, May 22 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) announced today it will report its first-quarter 2009 financial results on Tuesday, June 9, 2009 before the market opens.
Management will hold an investor webcast on June 9, 2009 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, which is 8:00 p.m. Hong Kong Time on June 9, 2009, to discuss GigaMedia's first-quarter 2009 performance. A link to the live and archived webcast will be available at http://www.gigamedia.com.tw .
About GigaMedia
GigaMedia Limited (Singapore registration number: 199905474H) is a major provider of online entertainment software and services. GigaMedia develops and licenses software for online gaming. GigaMedia also operates online games businesses including FunTown, a leading Asian casual games operator and one of Taiwan's largest online MahJong game sites, and T2CN, a leading online sports game operator in China. More information on GigaMedia can be obtained from http://www.gigamedia.com.tw .
The statements included above and elsewhere in this press release that are not historical in nature are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. GigaMedia cautions readers that forward-looking statements are based on the company's current expectations and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements. Information as to certain factors that could cause actual results to vary can be found in GigaMedia's Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2008.
For further information contact:
Brad Miller, Investor Relations Director
Tel: +886-2-2656-8016
Email:
[email protected]
Buying opportunity ? ???
Biz in Greater China and Taiwan...$1.83 in cash per share with very little debt, reporting June 9th, any potential earnings issues should be priced in already, nice bump to the upside expected.
Let's watch and see which way this breaks...
52wk Range: 2.64 - 17.92
Volume: 499,999
Avg Vol (3m): 649,875
Market Cap: 328.81M
P/E (ttm): 8.20
EPS (ttm): 0.74
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-1.10%below 13-day MA
-2.06%below 50-day MA
RS Rating: 2
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Jun 9
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $321.16
P/E Ratio: 10.30
PEG Ratio: 0.528889
Next Earnings: 06/09/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
Quote from: setravis on May 30, 2009, 01:20:07 PM
Buying opportunity ? ???
Biz in Greater China and Taiwan...$1.83 in cash per share with very little debt, reporting June 9th, any potential earnings issues should be priced in already, nice bump to the upside expected.
It seems to me to be a great buying opportunity :)
When the just announced Everest deal goes through they will have around $3.5 in cash per share.
With a POS of $3.23 you basically get their Chinese Online gaming business and 40% of their European gaming business free of charge (The European business alone is valued at $66 million or $1.2 per share based on the deal)
You now have a company that are focused on taking advantage of the Greater Chinese online gaming market and I think that long term this is the right strategic positioning of the company.
The Q3 earnings release was disappointing but I still really like the management and the way they continue to position the company for long term shareholder value.
The stock is in a sever downtrend but I do think this is a perfect entry point for a long term investor.
Hmmm... I think we are experiencing some seller's remorse or maybe the shorts are finally taking their profits and moving on. Anyway the selling seems way overdone from a fundamental point of view and we will hopefully snap back to a level where the stock price reflects the value of Gigamedia's assets and the potential the company has.
GIGM - Break Out
http://www.chartmoney.com/stockquotes.php?ticker=gigm
GigaMedia Limited provides gaming software and services to the online gaming industry in the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau.
supported by the moving average
Turn around move...profit opportunity... ???
Purely technical call, speculative issue, use stop.
It had a price up move with volume surge, came back to consolidate and test, and now is ready to :-X
Day's Range: 1.42 - 1.59
52wk Range: 1.00 - 3.08
Volume: 2,326,235
Avg Vol (3m): 622,106
Market Cap: 87.18M
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -0.96
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)
Technicals
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
14.19%above 13-day MA
19.14%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 96