8X8, Inc.(EGHT). The Group's principal activity is to design, develop and market telecommunication technology for internet protocol, telephony and video applications.
EGHT is a risky play, but it matches exactly the kind of chart pattern I'm looking for today. I've searched for stocks that recently broke to new lows (preferably all time lows), breaking several supports, and then clawed back up, surprising investors:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35;image)
This is a pattern that, when accompanied by volume, has a good probability of developing powerful advances in the short term:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36;image)
EGHT rose 24% yesterday. I'll buy it today at the open, expecting it will continue to advance. I will keep monitoring the stock to know when to sell.
During the session I will disclose a bit more of our strategy, that will change a little bit, because like we buy 3 shares every day, we have to sell them faster not to be holding a big bag of different stocks. We don't want to hold more than 15 stocks at the same time, and with the 3 purchases of today we'll have 12 stocks on our portfolio. So we must take a shorter term view to stock trading and monitor our holdings more frequently.
Everyday our team scans the entire US market (more than 7000 stocks) to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy for the short term. If you want to receive our free newsletter, please take 10 seconds to register on this message board.
David Randolph
www.3stocksonfire.org
I would certainly agree with the above statement as a fast money maker. With the recent PR EGHT may climb to well over $2.00. In my opinion this should have been posted the day of the PR but you know what they say, better late...... Besure to watch EGHT daily as any loss of momentum may result in a complete halt of any type of substantial gain.
Quote from: billyboy on May 03, 2005, 11:00:52 PM
I would certainly agree with the above statement as a fast money maker. With the recent PR EGHT may climb to well over $2.00. In my opinion this should have been posted the day of the PR but you know what they say, better late...... Besure to watch EGHT daily as any loss of momentum may result in a complete halt of any type of substantial gain.
Exactly... any loss of momentum could mean a correction... but i agree with you, the $2.00 level should not be difficult to reach on short term.
Best regards
ITS SIMPLY A CORRECTION
NEVER SHOULD HAVE DROPPED
$3 A SHARE IS A MARKETCAP OF JUST $150M.
EGHT HAS $37m+ IN CASH
(JUST RAISED $14M AT $2.10 A SHARE)
IT IS THE BEST RATED VOIP BY PC MAGAZINE AND GURU TOM'S NETWORKING.
8X8, Inc.(EGHT). The Group's principal activity is to design, develop and market telecommunication technology for internet protocol, telephony and video applications.
EGHT long term chart looks like this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=244;image)
I love that support break and then the powerful comeback.
In the short term we have this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=245;image)
I'm going to buy EGHT, higher than I sold, but I don't care about that. You have to let go of the past in this business. One close above $1.82 would confirm the bullishness of the stock.
I believe that now, after this second short term leg up from EGHT, the stock is less risky. It made a move, pullback and hold the initial move ... less risk, the same potential.
Everyday our team scans the entire US market to come up with the best 3 stocks to buy on a short term basis. If you wish to keep track of our moves and join our stock analysis community, please subscribe to our free newsletter (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register) (it takes only 10 seconds)
EGHT
ugh could not get until 1.9, still be OK?
who do you go thru?
... closing above $1.82 gives an extremely powerful bullish signal for EGHT. Let's just see if the stock holds through the close, I believe so, volume is huge right now.
If the stock is higher it's because demand is stronger than supply. You want to buy these kind of stocks.
Good luck !
Average volume is 909 k,,today we are looking at 2.13 million.and we are staying strong at $1.96 nice :D
Holding at $2.04.im gonna sit tight,still nice volume,and a couple of other indicators still look good
Have played EGHT between $1.5 and $2 ish a couple times. Lovely bounce on Friday off the 9ema and touched the recent high of $2.09 Any decent volume follow through will move the stock to the 200ema target of $2.44. I know you guys are still holding from $1.70 area, I will look to buy if $2.09 breaks with vol.
We cleared the "Lucas Harmonic" at .854.price was $1.96 on nice volume .The next harmonic is 1.18-$2.31..so I will run with you till that point.If it cant make it past that in next 2 days i take profit,,which is always a good thing ;)
David,
Do you have a mental price stop on EGHT?
It looks like the stock is down a lot in the pre-market. Probably earnings were released before the bell, I don't care. I'm selling today at the open, I don't want to let a profit turn into a loss.
IMHO
... $2.01. It was a pity to let a 40% profit turn into a 18% profit. I should have studied more about EGHT, I didn't knew results were coming out today. With a report like that coming out the stock couldn't be down yesterday, that was really a bad sign.
But life goes on, letting the profits run sometimes can cost us money, but it surely is a strategy that gives money over the long run.
David, This site tracks earnings dates, simple case of entering the ticker to see. I try to keep it handy, but have been caught out before with earnings release.
http://www.fulldisclosure.com/highlight.asp?client=cb
Mike
... added to my favorites. I'll keep track of earnings dates.
Still,it was a real nice pick,thks again :)
Watch if EGHT breaks 2.21; Strong buy alert...if over 2.21 = Breakout at least to 2.50 in short term !!!!
VOIP is getting hot; check out this news from cnn money:
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – Internet phone technology, or VoIP to the tech savvy, may finally be ready for prime time.
More and more consumers are signing up for services that enable phone calls over the Web...usually at a much lower price than what big telecom companies offer over the traditional phone network.
But many investors have continued to shun companies that offer VoIP. Since early January, shares of VocalTec (Research) and 8X8 (Research) are each down nearly 45 percent, Net2Phone (Research) has fallen 50 percent and Trinsic (Research) has plunged more than 80 percent.
Fusion Telecommunications International (Research), which focuses on VoIP services outside the U.S., went public in February and has fallen about 33 percent from its offering price.
The only VoIP stock that has done reasonably well recently is deltathree (Research), up about 10 percent this year.
In the past, I've taken a couple of looks at this sector and I've been skeptical. Not because I don't believe in VoIP (which stands for voice over Internet protocol), but because of the risk.
The VoIP companies are small and compete against the established telecom giants and cable companies. And most lose money and will do so for a while.
Even so -- with shares down so far, some of the VoIP plays are beginning to look absurdly cheap.
VoIP stocks finally look reasonable
Take Net2Phone. The company's market value is about $125 million but the company has nearly $90 million in cash on its balance sheet and just $17.8 million in long-term debt.
Eric Buck, an analyst with Janco Partners, said the company has struggled in its attempts to team up with small and mid-sized cable companies to offer VoIP services. Because it is not going directly to the consumer, its success is dependent on its partners. But Buck thinks these risks are more than reflected in the price.
"The negativity is overdone and there is an opportunity for Net2Phone," Buck said.
8X8 has a market value of under $100 million even though the company has no debt and $32 million in cash and investments.
And deltathree, which has its own VoIP service that it markets directly to consumers and also partners with larger telecom companies to offer VoIP, has a market value of about $110 million, no debt and $17 million in cash and investments.
"The sector has a lot of value," said John Buckingham, manager of the Al Frank fund, which owns Net2Phone and deltathree. "I bought deltathree because it has a lot of cash and is getting closer to profitability. The business is viable. And Net2Phone's cash, net of its debt, is equal to about half the share price."
Executives from several public VoIP companies expressed optimism that investors will soon embrace the sector. Speaking at a lunch at SG Cowen's Technology conference in New York on Wednesday, Paul White, chief financial officer of deltathree, predicted that there will be more VoIP IPOs.
And Sarah Hofstetter, senior vice president with Net2Phone, conceded that the lack of one major well-known public VoIP company is a bit of an issue plaguing the sector.
But help could soon be on the way. It appears the market clearly is waiting to see how an IPO from Vonage, the leading independent pure play VoIP service company, could do.
Could Vonage lead a VoIP surge?
Privately held Vonage has been extremely aggressive in terms of marketing and advertising (Gotta love those TV commercials. Woohoo! Woohoo-hoo!) and has signed up more than 700,000 subscribers as a result.
More importantly to investors, Vonage has attracted a significant amount of financing from venture capitalists, including Bain Capital, 3i and New Enterprise Associates. The company raised $200 million in its most recent round of funding last month, raising hopes that an IPO filing could be imminent.
"A Vonage IPO would bring increased attention to the group," said Buck.
Investors still need to be cautious though since most of the VoIP companies are not expected to make money in the near future. That's why some networking companies which make equipment used by VoIP service providers may be a less risky way to play the VoIP trend.
Mark Mowrey, an analyst who works with Al Frank's Buckingham recommends Avaya (Research) while Buck thinks Sonus Networks (Research) is a decent value. Both companies are expected to be profitable this year.
But consumer adoption of VoIP should accelerate now that the Federal Communications Commission is mandating that Internet phone companies provide the same type of 911 emergency services as landline and wireless carriers do. And as VoIP becomes more acceptable, the service providers should be able to generate decent gains in revenues...and eventually profits.
So the time for the investor to try and cash in on this is when sentiment is weak, not when the stocks have already taken off.
For more about consumer tech gadgets, click here.
For a look at news about the IPO market, click here
Put eght on your watch list !!
this news i posted were from june 2:
The right time for VoIP
Shares of Internet phone companies have been beaten down so much they now might be worth the risk.
June 2, 2005: 5:56 PM EDT
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN/Money senior writer
8X8 (eght) has a market value of under $100 million even though the company has no debt and $32 million in cash and investments.
I was looking for unanswered posts and I found that ket1390 has been writing some posts about EGHT. The stock has been correcting over the last couple of weeks and it is now at decision point. It must rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the $1.76 support level.
Perhaps a buy at these levels offers low risk ... the upside is for the uptrend to resume, the downside is a break of the $1.76 level. It's a pity volume is weak, that's why it didn't show up on my filters.
Quote from: Rocket8 on May 04, 2005, 01:37:07 AM
ITS SIMPLY A CORRECTION
NEVER SHOULD HAVE DROPPED
$3 A SHARE IS A MARKETCAP OF JUST $150M.
EGHT HAS $37m+ IN CASH
(JUST RAISED $14M AT $2.10 A SHARE)
IT IS THE BEST RATED VOIP BY PC MAGAZINE AND GURU TOM'S NETWORKING.
I believe rocket88 doesn't hold EGHT anymore. I remember he sent me some e-mail or private message saying something bearish about the stock.
It's making a symmetrical triangle now ...
EGHT looks to gettin ready for another move comin up! I have posted on it in the Stock Picks forum not knowing this was a past 3SOF play. Price action is currently forming a beautiful ascending triangle with a +50% profit target. Here is the Link to the new post and a current chart.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2744.0 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2744.0)
-fousc
more UP ?
<applaud for u>
Big jump (43%) late Friday, and here's the reason:
QuoteAP
BellSouth Contracts 8x8 to Provide Service
Friday December 9, 5:53 pm ET
BellSouth Contracts 8x8 to Provide Service; 8x8 Shares Soar 60.6 Percent in After-Hours Trading
ATLANTA (AP) -- Telecommunications company BellSouth Corp. said Friday it contracted Internet telephony provider 8x8 Inc. to provide technology and services for its digital phone service.
Shares of 8x8, of Santa Clara, Calif., soared $1.06, or 60.6 percent in after-hours activity.
ADVERTISEMENT
The company's shares closed the regular Nasdaq session up 52 cents, or 43 percent at $1.74.
The day's trading volume was more than 10 times the company's average. In the past 52 weeks, shares have traded between $1.03 and $4.47.
Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The agreement calls for the development of BellSouth's digital phone service based on technology developed by 8x8, BellSouth said.
This includes voice-over-Internet Protocol service components, such as a call switching platform, feature servers, customer portals and consumer premise equipment, BellSouth said.
VoIP converts telephone audio into a digital format that can be transmitted over the Internet.
BellSouth's shares rose 19 cents to close at $27.61 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Up to 3.02 in AH so should have a nice gap up Monday.
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/EGHT12-9.png)
Possible entry $2.50 (Gap filli) depending on the action at open
Quote from: KCScott on December 10, 2005, 03:07:01 PM
Big jump (43%) late Friday, and here's the reason:
QuoteAP
BellSouth Contracts 8x8 to Provide Service
Friday December 9, 5:53 pm ET
BellSouth Contracts 8x8 to Provide Service; 8x8 Shares Soar 60.6 Percent in After-Hours Trading
ATLANTA (AP) -- Telecommunications company BellSouth Corp. said Friday it contracted Internet telephony provider 8x8 Inc. to provide technology and services for its digital phone service.
Shares of 8x8, of Santa Clara, Calif., soared $1.06, or 60.6 percent in after-hours activity.
ADVERTISEMENT
The company's shares closed the regular Nasdaq session up 52 cents, or 43 percent at $1.74.
The day's trading volume was more than 10 times the company's average. In the past 52 weeks, shares have traded between $1.03 and $4.47.
Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The agreement calls for the development of BellSouth's digital phone service based on technology developed by 8x8, BellSouth said.
This includes voice-over-Internet Protocol service components, such as a call switching platform, feature servers, customer portals and consumer premise equipment, BellSouth said.
VoIP converts telephone audio into a digital format that can be transmitted over the Internet.
BellSouth's shares rose 19 cents to close at $27.61 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Up to 3.02 in AH so should have a nice gap up Monday.
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/EGHT12-9.png)
Possible entry $2.50 (Gap filli) depending on the action at open
And come Monday CTLM, should be moving.
This EGHT/BLS...BellSouth contract will play into CTLM also.
CTLM provides the chips to EGHT.
CTLM should have moved on Friday also, But the market just has not connected the dots just yet.
I think this will happen over the weekend. Looking forward to Monday. AS CTLM is my pick in the up coming stock picking contest. Also take a look at BellSouth's Chart (BLS), they are breaking out from a long term Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) Pattern. Looks good for a play ,IMHO.
... I'll buy it for the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio and will look to sell with a 20% profit.
Here's the fast reasoning: $2.05 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the huge run the stock just had. People will sell there thinking it will go down to $1.98 to fill the gap, but I don't think it will before a bullish reaction.
I'll sell with a 20% profit, if I have the chance, because there's another gap, between $2.46 and $2.50 that can be filled today.
So the plan is simple: buy at $2.05 and sell at $2.46. If the stock doesn't reach $2.05 I'll leave it alone.
As always, 33.33% of the Fast Portfolio, or about $5,000.
Bought it this morning at $2.22.
Shoud have a rebound.
Sold it at $2.48.
May go up more. But 30 minutes 10% gain, I am satisfied with it.
1. Profile
VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) service provider 8x8, Inc. (EGHT) offers internet-based telephony solutions for individual residential and business users as well as small to medium sized business organizations. 8x8's wholesale voice and video services include a suite of VoIP platforms with a session initiation protocol switching infrastructure at its core together with voice, video, and wireless endpoint devices to form an end-to-end solution.
Since its establishment in 1987, 8x8 has contributed to the advancement of voice and video communications on both technology and service provision levels. The company currently holds 60 United States patents with additional patents pending.
2. Technical Analysis
2.1. Long Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=12123;image)
EGHT's long term chart shows one of those tech bubble era stocks that survived. Occasionally EGHT has huge short term runs and then it falls back to between $1.5 and $2. Seven sessions ago the stock had its one day record volume of 37 million shares traded.
2.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=12124;image)
On the medium term chart we can see that the stock was respecting a descending trend line since December 2003. But, after touching it's medium term support area for the 3rd time, EGHT made a violent bullish breakout with record volume.
This breakout was technically significant and the stock is now medium term bullish.
2.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=12125;image)
The bullish breakout was so violent that it produced a wide gap. That gap was finally filled yesterday. Also the stock respected the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on close.
This seems to be the right time to buy, if you want to buy ...
3. Fundamental Analysis
3.1. Current Ratio
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=12126;image)
The Current Ratio is a ratio between Total Assets and Total Liabilities. It should always be above 2 in order for the company not to have liquidity problems over the near term. We can see that only in one year EGHT had a Current Ratio below 2 which was 2003. According to the last 10-Q Report filed with the SEC the Current Ratio now is about 3.4. I feel comfortable with that.
3.2. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=12127;image)
My fiscal 2006 estimate is based solely on annualizing the first half numbers, so revenues on the second half (it's already under way) may surprise on the upside by a wide margin.
What matters to me here is that EGHT was already seeing strong demand for its products in calendar 2005, despite of the Bell South deal (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B2F75AB47%2D175B%2D49F0%2DB604%2D300B6DEE6251%7D) (which I don't know details, nobody knows because financial terms of the deal were not disclosed by the companies)
3.3. EPS
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=12128;image)
The company consistently lost money since it is operating (only a profitable year in 1998). But, 2006 figures still don't take into account the recently announced Bell South deal (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B2F75AB47%2D175B%2D49F0%2DB604%2D300B6DEE6251%7D), that will without a doubt at least produce some additional revenues and maybe reduce EPS loss.
4. General Overview
I believe EGHT is a speculative play since the company has no profits and financial terms of the deal with Bell South were not disclosed, so the market really doesn't know what the future will hold for the company.
But, as I see it, seven days ago at the open ($3.19) people were discounting that the BLS deal would make EGHT grow 10 fold. On close yesterday ($2.10) they were discounting the deal had almost no meaning whatsoever.
I think the deal has some meaning, at least in credibility and visibility terms for EGHT, and probably some revenues too (we don't know how much).
I feel encouraged by two things:
1) Revenue was already growing fast in calendar 2005. VoIP products are starting to get strong demand.
2) The technical picture is quite bullish, both on the short term and medium term chart.
4. Trading Plan
I'll buy EGHT around today's open for the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio and then I'll monitor it everyday after the close with an updated analysis. I will for sure sell this position before December 31st.
It is great when they fill_the_gap ;D
Taking the chance today.
Glad that you are in on this one ;D
Still holding some of my shares from before the breakout - sold half just under 3.00, looking for the other half to go substantially higher in the next couple months. I do think this BLS deal has serious potential for EGHT in the medium term, and that EGHT may also be a potential buyout by BLS as they try to develop their VOIP service. Will wait and see for now....
I did not buy EGHT today cuz' i slept long .... but looking at David's chart & my chart the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement should not go down below 2.04 but it closed today's session @ 1.99 & 3 ticks down more @ AH... goodluck for those who hold (i'll take position if things goes my way) ;)
Good call David!
The odds favor the longs GREATLY on this one!
I SALUTE!
willey
Tobin Smith has a lot of followers and he did suggest when the stock ran up to above 3 for them to take profits but in his end of year note when he sells many positions he has EGHT as a sell at the market so today at some point if there is selling then it may be that but in pre market the stock is up 4% so maybe any of his folks sold or just decided to hold.
This stock may have enough volume that his followers have little effect.
Thanks for the info and analysis, you guys are great :)
I think the cut of the 61.8% retracement wasn't significant (too small with low volume) and I'll continue holding EGHT, waiting for a rally. I don't think this stock will just lay down and die.
Also I don't want to move much more on the Fast Portfolio, I got my picks, now it is time for the market to judge them.
EGHT: was in at $2.09 and took a loss at $2.00.
The stock traded iN a range this year. Strong support $1.25 and strong resistance: $2.25.
Minor support at $1.5 and resistance at $2.00.
The maximum pain is $0.10 for me.
My gain on SFCC this morning makes up my loss on EGHT.
Quote from: shawFund on December 22, 2005, 10:39:43 AM
EGHT: was in at $2.09 and took a loss at $2.00.
The stock traded iN a range this year. Strong support $1.25 and strong resistance: $2.25.
Minor support at $1.5 and resistance at $2.00.
The maximum pain is $0.10 for me.
My gain on SFCC this morning makes up my loss on EGHT.
EGHT cut the 61.8% FIBONACCI... waiting for the right entry ;)
I dont know about others but this stock has enticed my gambling instincts a lot. I am throwing some more crumbs to this monster if David intends to HOLD, otherwise.... ;)
EGHT is killing the December Edition of the Fast Portfolio >:(
I don't know why it is falling like a rock, but I think a second leg up will occur anytime. The market usually gives a second chance, or at least, a chance for not such a dramatic loss for the ones who bought above $3 just a few days ago.
EGHT is damaging the Fast Portfolio but I'll give it two more days to rebound.
I agree (and hope) that EGHT should show some positive movement from here. The price came down to touch the 200 MA yesterday, which also coincides with a level of strong support at 1.83, as can be seen on the 1 year chart. The range from 1.83 to 1.74 looks to be a solid support band, as the price by volume chart indicates. I am still holding a portion of my shares which I bought before the gap up, at 1.75. For me, a close below this level would indicate that the bears are intent on bringing this all the way down, but I think this is unlikely. For now, just have to sit tight and wait out the reversal.
For fast trade, it is better to cut loss quickly. But be patient when you have a winner. Let the winner's profit run (don't exit a winner too quickly).
Wishful thinking is a dangerous game. It may or may not rebound. What to do if it continue going down and did not give a second chance. In the mean time, I have put money into other promising stocks.
I cut my loss two days ago and put the money into ELN, ONNN, MPS, MCDTA, SANM, MOVI, SFCC, SWIR etc. All made profit except SWIR ($11.70 -> $11.50, took a $0.20 sudden loss again).
Have a Merry Christmas. Hope to have a good week trading, next week - last week of 2005.
Hi David & all holders here. I'm reasonably sure that "ChangeWave.com" subscribers recently received a sell notice here & THIS is the reason for the very recent downside stock pressure.
All must remain aware that "bigger players" with different agenda's ( raising cash for newer trades ) are frequently "at work" behind the scenes
Hope this helps explain some! I'd suggest patience here...unless downsides stops are reached!
willey
Quote from: willey on December 26, 2005, 11:31:10 PM
Hi David & all holders here. I'm reasonably sure that "ChangeWave.com" subscribers recently received a sell notice here & THIS is the reason for the very recent downside stock pressure.
All must remain aware that "bigger players" with different agenda's ( raising cash for newer trades ) are frequently "at work" behind the scenes
Hope this helps explain some! I'd suggest patience here...unless downsides stops are reached!
willey
Thanks for the info willey :)
EGHT had a white candle on Friday and perhaps it is setting itself up for a nice rebound. I'm not moving anymore, that is, I'll continue to hold the stock that I got until the end of the year and before the close I'll liquidate all positions.
Why? I feel the more I move the worst it is. I was able to pick good stocks on the 3 SOF Fast December Edition but mostly I sold them too soon.
Now, with just 4 trading days left, probably low volume days, I think I'll do better if I just sit and wait than to change stocks a lot.
So, I'll continue holding EGHT.
EGHT: Short Interest UP 28.4% to 6.9M in Dec 2005
Tuesday , December 27, 2005 16:15 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for 8x8, Incorporated (NasdaqSC: EGHT) INCREASED 28.4% to 6,911,745 shares for the month ended mid-December, 2005.
SYMBOL NOVEMBER DECEMBER CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
EGHT 5,380,956 6,911,745 +1,530,789 +28.45% 2
Based on EGHT's 20-day average daily share volume of 5,134,545, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
3SOF Fast performance is in bad shape, I'm hoping to see good picks next year goodluck David.... ;)
I mean, not too bad ;)
I sold this last Friday when it closed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. I think it should have bounced off that which it didn`t so I gave up on it knowing it's history. I traded it early in the year before it totally tanked seriously below $2.
There are only 3 trading days left in December and the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio is down 3.79%. I have three options:
1) Do nothing and sell the stocks just before the close of the last trading day of the year
2) Make a desperate try to get into positive territory
3) Clean up the portfolio and get ready to start over again in January
I have 10 years of experience trading stocks and especially futures. It wasn't a passive experience, just holding stocks for the long term. I made more than 5,000 trades during that 10 year period.
I know quite well that nearly everytime that I took one of the first 2 options I lost money and I lost big. Everytime I did nothing in the face of losses I lost more. Everytime I put my neck in risk to save a month I lost more.
When I recently started taking the 3rd option, having patience and ability to start over, I always came out of the reflexion period stronger and more open to all possibilities, inclusive the «make money» possibility.
Considering this, I will sell EGHT around today's open.
A bit of a pop today, up 10% :o on good volume. Have not found any news on why.
Hope its the beginning of another push
uc.
The stock filled the closing gap yesterday so the bounce is pretty normal response - now will see if it continues. A close above $2 would help
(http://xs61.xs.to/pics/05524/eght2.jpg)
This one is a wild one not fast :)
Holding my wild horses. Now in green.
sold tooo early :'( :'(
Bought in today :)
stop loss 1.84
active in the pre-market
+14.05%
Some news and up 13% pre- market
8x8 and QDI Wireless Sign Distribution Agreement for Packet8 Internet Phone Services
Wednesday January 4, 8:30 am ET
LAS VEGAS, 2006 Consumer Electronics Show, Jan. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/
-- 8x8, Inc. (Nasdaq: EGHT - News), the Packet8 broadband Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) and videophone communications service provider, today announced it has signed a distribution agreement with QDI Quality Distributors LLC, one of the fastest growing master distributors of wireless products and services in the nation.
ADVERTISEMENT
Under terms of the agreement, QDI will offer its 3,500 independently owned and operated wireless retailers the opportunity to resell Packet8 voice and video internet phone services to their residential and business customers. QDI's distribution base is comprised of retailers that run the gamut from single, owner-operated locations in rural strip malls to multiple state, multiple mall kiosk and in-line store locations in major metropolitan areas.
"As the mobile phone industry matures, independent wireless dealers are beginning to look at VoIP phone services as logical extensions of their business," said 8x8 Vice President of Sales & Marketing Huw Rees. "We are pleased to be working with a premier distributor like QDI who has the vision and resources necessary to educate its dealers about VoIP and help them be successful with Packet8 Internet phone services."
As the nation's largest T-Mobile distributor, QDI staffs over 50 District and Territory Managers that are responsible for meeting with retailers on a regular basis to assist with sales training, merchandising, inventory management, cash flow strategies and marketing. Additionally, QDI maintains an in-house print shop and ad agency to further support dealers' local marketing efforts.
"We are very excited about the opportunity to offer our dealer base an entree in the VoIP market with Packet8's innovative, high quality offerings," said QDI President Bill Abbott. "QDI always strives to not only bring new technologies to our distribution partners but to support their marketing efforts with a comprehensive set of tools designed to ensure their success."
QDI will offer the complete line of Packet8 residential and business internet phone services and products including the Freedom Unlimited residential and VideoPhone plans, Freedom Unlimited Global international calling plan and Virtual Office VoIP-Hosted PBX service for small business along with accompanying endpoint devices.
uc.
I want to add EGHT to the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio tomorrow. I'll be looking to get in below Friday's close, say between $1.7 and $1.75. 6.66% of capital as always.
I'm not going to use a very tight stop on this one, clearly the stock may fluctuate for some time before pushing a lot higher. The basis for this trade is both technical and fundamental, so it wouldn't be wise to be shaken out just because of a technical reaction.
Here's the full justification for the trade:
«1. Introduction
I was looking to study less than $5 stocks and EGHT pop on my technical and fundamental screens. I've traded this in the past, who would say it would go as low as $0.65 ::). Anyway, the chart looks bullish and, to my surprise, fundamentals never stopped improving. Then why the share price collapse? I guess when a stock is bought like EGHT was on those two days in December 05 (47 million shares changed hands in those two days) and it fails to advance, people will then bail out whatever the fundamental picture is, they just can't stand the price decline anymore !
2. Profile
VoIP (voice over internet protocol) service provider 8x8, Inc. (EGHT) offers internet-based telephony solutions ( www.packet8.net ) for individual residential and business users as well as small to medium sized business organizations. In addition to regular Packet8 VoIP service plans priced as low as $19.99 per month for unlimited anytime calling to the U.S. and Canada, 8x8 offers the Packet8 DV 326 VideoPhone, the industry's first stand alone broadband consumer videophone, and accompanying monthly service plans also priced at $19.99 per month. Packet8 Virtual Office, 8x8's VoIP system for small to medium sized businesses, is a hosted PBX solution comprised of powerful business class features. Companies subscribing to Virtual Office pay just $39.99 per month per extension for enterprise class PBX functionality along with unlimited local and long distance calling in the U.S. and Canada. Packet8 Softalk(TM), 8x8's PC-based soft phone client, offers high quality voice and video in-network calling as well as outbound calling to the PSTN. For additional company information, visit 8x8's web site at www.8x8.com.
3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28055;image)
Nothing surprising on this EGHT all history chart. Since it was a technology related stock, it had its bubble in 2000 and then collapsed.
3.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28056;image)
The stock had huge bull runs in the past, but it couldn't sustain those high prices. The recent advance phase seems more moderate, is it supported by fundamentals? We'll get to that in a moment.
3.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28057;image)
EGHT's short term chart is showing a strong ascending trend. Volume picks up in every white marubozu along the way. No meaningful gaps were left open.
4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28058;image)
Since these are quarterly numbers, I can't call the increase in the number of outstanding shares "moderate". Unfortunately the company is issuing shares, and the market cap is growing faster than the share price advance implies.
Anyway, the current market cap is just 61.4 million * $1.75 = $107 M.
4.2. Liquidity
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28062;image)
The balance sheet is getting a bit weak here, but still $9 M in working capital.
4.3. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28063;image)
This is the part I like most, ten consecutive quarters of revenue growth. Revenue expectation for the full fiscal 2007 (it ends on March 07) is $55 M.
4.4. Net Income
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28064;image)
Well, the company lost money every quarter since 2004, but this latest quarter it cut its losses in half. Is EGHT turning the corner to profitability?
5. General Overview
Read this excerpts from published news:
- "8x8 Reports 5,000 U.S. Businesses Now Use the Packet8 Virtual Office Phone Service. According to 8x8 Vice President of Sales and Marketing Huw Rees, the adoption rate of the Packet8 Virtual Office service by U.S. based businesses has increased dramatically over the past twelve months, with nearly 1,000 new businesses added in the last quarter alone."
- "Packet8 Virtual Office Business Phone System to Be Sold Through Office Depot Stores Nationwide. Beginning this month (November), Office Depot's stores and website will carry the Packet8 Virtual Office business phone service package for $79.99 (after $50 mail-in rebate)."
- ""Our focus on the business space with Virtual Office affords 8x8 a sustainable and attractive business model. This is evidenced by our gross margins, which grew strongly to 52% for the quarter, and the decreasing customer churn we are seeing due to this segment of our service," continued Mr. Martin."
I think it is becoming apparent, especially from the quarterly revenue numbers, that EGHT now has a successful business model (check their website (http://www.packet8.net/)). This wasn't the case for many years, since the company became public in 1997.
I think this company's business model is one of those "the more, the more", that is, the more costumers they have, the easier it will be to get more (because if you're using a VOIP service, you want everybody else to use it to, to save more on your calls).
Revenues rose an average of 129% for the past 2 years. If this growth continues, EGHT will have revenues of $660 M in 3 years, and its market cap can be 12 times larger than it is now.
I'm a believer in VOIP and I think EGHT can be an attractive long term investment. My biggest worry is dilution. Dilution can make the market cap grow, indeed, by 12 times over the next 3 years, and yet the share price only doubles, for example. So, if I decide to invest on EGHT, I'll watch the number of shares issued and outstanding like a hawk.»
David,
I Like the technicals -I would like to jump right on in there with you..... ;)
Fundamentals improving Revs 13.2m from 7.1m for last years quarter.
What's your view of the Office Depot deal and where do you see this one going ?
It's easy to understand. Office Depot like Comp Us,Fry Elect, etc, are good retail stores, but the average shopper does not know what that point of purchase display and pile of boxes is all about.They walk right on by and are oblivious to what its all about. Its to passive ! The only way to sell this product at this time in any retail space is to have a real live demonstration with a knowledgeable person to help the prospect try it themselves, pick it up make a call see and hear it. Have the salesperson answer any and all questions, the product needs additional credibility for the user..........
52wk Range: 0.65 - 3.39
Volume: 2,218,046
Avg Vol (3m): 617,832
Technicals
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
16.61%above 13-day MA
38.15%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $72.93
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
Business Overview....
BRIEF: For the three months ended 30 June 2006, 8X8, Inc.'s revenues totaled $12.3M, up from $6M. Net loss increased 12% to $5.7M. Revenues reflect increased license & service revenues and higher product revenues due to $4.9M increase in Packet8 service due to the growth in subscriber base. Higher loss reflects increased selling, general & administrative expenses, increased cost of license & service revenues and higher cost of product revenues. http://www.8x8.com/
Applaud on the Analysis !! ;) ;D
I also like EGHT, technicals are good.....I bet 3SOF will pull some nice gains here ;)
Applause David!!
The idea of buying by 3SoF in a certain range or above or below certain price is many times better than buying at or 'near' open. I hope this may replace buying near open which may leave some new hands with stocks at much higher prices.
Just an input for other folks: I am watching gas prices stealthly going up in LA, not a good sign for a overbought market. But speculation will run in whatever and whichever form.
Glad to see I've got company in EGHT now. I been in for about 2 yrs as high as $5.00 and low as $.75. Now that we're cocked & loaded lets shoot for $8-10.00 in next 6 mths.
420 shares this morning @ 1.74... will decide between MCTI, DIVX, and EGHT for my remaining $1000 within the first hour of trading.
Let's go!
Here is a link to an "EGHT" investor group up date for anyone interested..
http://www.eght.net/News/tabid/152/Default.aspx
I'm waiting .... damnit. :-[
maybe we'll see that under seven price soon??? I've learned to wait and follow instructions! >:D
Quote from: anvilring on November 13, 2006, 09:43:01 AM
I'm waiting .... damnit. :-[
maybe we'll see that under seven price soon??? I've learned to wait and follow instructions! >:D
I think you're on the wrong thread anvilring, you're talking about CHINA, right?
I got in at $7.04 around the open ... the news came just about 10 or 15 minutes before the open (at least I only saw it then), so I couldn't alert on the newsletter, which said to buy at $6.85, which was Friday's high. But I think the news is significant enough and quite bullish (the conversion price is $10.37) and it hints an IPO of CDC games or CDC Software, which probably will have higher multiples than within CHINA.
I think CHINA is going higher. Good luck anvilring :)
(let me copy paste this to the CHINA thread)
QuoteWhat's your view of the Office Depot deal and where do you see this one going ?
It's easy to understand. Office Depot like Comp Us,Fry Elect, etc, are good retail stores, but the average shopper does not know what that point of purchase display and pile of boxes is all about.They walk right on by and are oblivious to what its all about. Its to passive ! The only way to sell this product at this time in any retail space is to have a real live demonstration with a knowledgeable person to help the prospect try it themselves, pick it up make a call see and hear it. Have the salesperson answer any and all questions, the product needs additional credibility for the user..........
I agree with you setravis. I don't know how they're going to present the product at Office Depot (well, I've never been to an Office Depot, just Office Center, from Staples, in Portugal, but I guess they're similar).
But no doubt they will sell more with Office Depot than without them. I'm counting on you to update us on how they present the product at Office Depot, allright? :) Thanks.
Quote from: Terliso on November 12, 2006, 09:15:24 PM
I also like EGHT, technicals are good.....I bet 3SOF will pull some nice gains here ;)
Applause David!!
Thanks Terliso. Well, my intraday timing was awful, now I read my own instructions specifically saying to get in at $1.70 - $1.75, not $1.76 ???
Anyway, I'm not going to penance myself over a few pennies.
Quote from: stocky on November 12, 2006, 10:04:59 PM
The idea of buying by 3SoF in a certain range or above or below certain price is many times better than buying at or 'near' open. I hope this may replace buying near open which may leave some new hands with stocks at much higher prices.
Just an input for other folks: I am watching gas prices stealthly going up in LA, not a good sign for a overbought market. But speculation will run in whatever and whichever form.
Yes, I also like the idea of providing a range to buy, but there's the possibility of losing an opportunity because of giving too much importance to intraday timing. I can deal with wasting a buying opportunity. But I don't want to lose a selling one.
Quote from: TD on November 13, 2006, 08:51:30 AM
Glad to see I've got company in EGHT now. I been in for about 2 yrs as high as $5.00 and low as $.75. Now that we're cocked & loaded lets shoot for $8-10.00 in next 6 mths.
2 years? You probably know a lot about the company TD. Feel free to express your hopes and concerns on EGHT. Thanks.
Quote from: dwest718 on November 13, 2006, 08:56:09 AM
420 shares this morning @ 1.74... will decide between MCTI, DIVX, and EGHT for my remaining $1000 within the first hour of trading.
Let's go!
You had better timing than mine dwest718. Anyway, shares went down a bit on the afternoon trade.
EGHT made the typical correction after a long white marubozu (typical, but you never know if it's going to happen or not) to the midpoint of the white candle, which is $1.66. Probably tomorrow the stock will push higher again and close the week above my entry point at $1.76.
Anyway, I'm not using any tight stop levels, since I'm well diversified. Even if I need to get out with a 20% loss, that's still just 1.32% of total equity (doesn't mean I'll be complacent), I just feel I need to allow for larger losses to capture some meaningful ascending moves.
I'll continue holding EGHT.
QuoteEGHT made the typical correction after a long white marubozu (typical, but you never know if it's going to happen or not) to the midpoint of the white candle, which is $1.66. Probably tomorrow the stock will push higher again and close the week above my entry point at $1.76.
Well, I just had to wait one day, not the whole week. Another long white marubozu on EGHT, pushing up to a new local high.
Technicals and fundamentals favour a price rise on EGHT. I'll continue holding without conditions.
Hi David, glad to see my personal pick from mid October - EGHT - made your filters and recommendation...I'm up about 30% since my entry 4 weeks ago...I discovered this pick using StockTA.com
Capricho
Is there a target we should be looking for or are we just gonna let EGHT run until it lets down a little bit?
Quote from: dwest718 on November 15, 2006, 10:02:27 AM
Is there a target we should be looking for or are we just gonna let EGHT run until it lets down a little bit?
Don't try to pre-determine your profits, let the market tell you how much is enoughFrom
Reminiscences:
"The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you you hope hope that every day will be the last day - and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope - to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire buildings and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out - too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit."
Good luck dwest718 :)
I enjoyed today's price action on EGHT, despite the close being somewhat below the high of the session. Volume was strong, above 2 million shares and the candlestick was white, meaning the close was above the open.
The trend continues to be clearly bullish and fundamentals are atractive. I'll continue holding EGHT, as Livermore would say, hoping for a bigger profit :).
EGHT opened too high and couldn't hold on to those levels, so the session got a bit of bearish momentum. But, in an ascending trend, bulls come in to buy the dips, and this happened today on EGHT.
Nothing goes up in a straight line so I consider today's 0.95% fall as normal. Next week we'll probably see EGHT above $2. I'll continue holding it.
Good news on EGHT: Broadband National and 8x8, Inc. Strike Alliance
PR Newswire (Fri 8:15am) (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061117/sff022.html?.v=72)
Let's see if this is enough of a catalyst to push it above $2. Already up 4% on pre-market.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 17, 2006, 08:56:47 AM
Good news on EGHT: Broadband National and 8x8, Inc. Strike Alliance
PR Newswire (Fri 8:15am) (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061117/sff022.html?.v=72)
Let's see if this is enough of a catalyst to push it above $2. Already up 4% on pre-market.
No, it wasn't enough, the early rally just ignited some more profit taking.
One of the things that I was a bit worried about my long term bullish scenario for EGHT was competition. I just thought $40 a month per extension could be excessive (this is the price for the Packet8: Virtual Office (http://www.packet8.net/about/bplans.asp)). I was completely wrong, this is by far the cheapest service on the market, check this:
Table 1: SMB VOIP Services: The Details (http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=107236&table_number=1&page_number=&site=)
Competition offers the service at a price 2 to 3 times higher than EGHT's.
17% of small businesses already use VOIP, there are still 83% left. This market is expected to grow 100% in 2007 from 2006 levels. I expect EGHT to grab a good chunk of this growth, as their products and services get more consumer and businessman recognition.
The company had revenue growth every quarter for the last 10 quarters. I expect this to continue and will hold the stock until:
1) Revenues slow down;
2) There's relevant dilution;
3) The share price closes below Trend Line 1 on the chart (TL1 rises $0.01 per trading day).
So, for now, the trading plan on EGHT is to hold it, unless it is set to close below TL1, which on Monday will be at $1.41.
hi,
in at 190. think this will break two ,
max
Today we had this news on EGHT: Systemax Partners With 8x8, Inc. to Bring VoIP to the Masses (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061120/lam058.html?.v=69). It's a small step, but one in the right direction.
For tomorrow the TL1 will be standing at $1.42, I'll continue holding EGHT unless the stock is set to close below $1.42.
EGHT seems to be developing a short term resistance area around the $1.95 level. I think it is accumulating for a jump above the $2 phsycological barrier. It is possible that it makes a move down to TL2 (tomorrow at $1.74) to throw some weak hands out of the ship and get the necessary traction for the rally.
I want my hands to be strong. This means I'll continue using a larger stop so that I'm able to support possible technical short term corrections, because the big money is made on the big moves.
I'll continue holding EGHT, unless it is set to close below TL1, tomorrow at $1.43.
hi,
touched the 20 and bounced,
maxi
Quote from: rickjust on November 22, 2006, 09:57:58 AM
hi,
touched the 20 and bounced,
maxi
That was strange price action in EGHT this morning, looks like someone dumped some shares in market order at the open and the stock recovered fairly quickly.
Looks like we had a Golden Cross on Monday, EGHT still lookin' good!
Yes Tokyopua, the 50 day simple moving average is now above the 200 day SMA. I was expecting a day like this:
QuoteIt is possible that it makes a move down to TL2 (tomorrow at $1.74) to throw some weak hands out of the ship and get the necessary traction for the rally.
I would have liked to have some more volume on this shake out day, but 1.27 million shares was still above average. I guess EGHT is now ready to resume its uptrend.
My hands are strong, I will let go of EGHT only if it is set to close below the ascending TL1, which tomorrow will be at $1.44. It has to be this way if I want to be in on a trip above $2. Look what happened today, everybody with a stop loss order near the market was stopped out. Perhaps they will buy EGHT again, but this time I hope they pay $2 plus ;D
I read this thread from the start and I continue to feel confortable holding EGHT. Analysts are moving up their estimates:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28915;image)
Technically today was insignificant, with volume about 1/5 of the average. The stock is above TL2 and may push above $2 anytime soon.
My plan is to continue holding EGHT for as long as it is set to close above TL1, which on Monday will stand at $1.46.
EGHT broke down below TL2, showing weakness on the short term chart. Yet, my plan always was to keep on holding for as long as the stock is set to close above TL1, which tomorrow will be at $1.47.
EGHT's revenues are up for 10 quarters in a row and I don't see this trend towards VOIP stopping anytime soon. The general market took almost everything down today, and since EGHT was up over 100% since its August lows, it fell 6%.
I'll continue holding EGHT, unless it is set to close below TL1 on the chart, tomorrow at $1.47.
I'm with you on this one. Just bought in at 1.55 after I got stomped out of SIGA. ;)
Would very much like to see EGHT close above 1.63 today so that we can have a hammer to reverse the current downtrend :)
Quote from: thai626 on November 28, 2006, 11:23:32 AM
I'm with you on this one. Just bought in at 1.55 after I got stomped out of SIGA. ;)
I think you did well thai26, the bull case is stronger in EGHT than in SIGA.
Quote from: tokyopua on November 28, 2006, 03:19:13 PM
Would very much like to see EGHT close above 1.63 today so that we can have a hammer to reverse the current downtrend :)
Closed at $1.61. I don't know if the decline phase is over yet. I read this entire thread and checked the company's financials and products again, and everything seems in order, pure and clean revenue growth and nothing wrong with the balance sheet.
I expect this company to be profitable in 6 months, given the current revenue and EPS trends.
But, technically, it has been very weak lately. I'm already losing 8.52% on this trade. But you know, EGHT is a stock and company with so much potential that one has to bear a higher risk.
I'm going to change my trading plan slightly, I've noticed a gap opened between $1.43 and $1.45. $1.44 wasn't traded on the way up. Technically it is possible the stock goes that low, to close the gap, and possibly touch the 50 day SMA.
If EGHT goes that low, it will probably bounce quickly from that level. My stop loss changes from a possible close below TL1, to a sell if the stock is set to close below $1.44. This represents an 18 - 20% risk.
I'm willing to accept this risk level because the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio is well diversified and I'm not planning to sell it with a 20% profit, but with a 400% profit or more. Because if the company really gets traction with this new business model (it's already happening, just not profitable yet) it will be at least a $500 M business, that is, 5 times more than it is now.
Even if I get stopped out I will always keep it under close eye to get back in again, unless the fundamentals change dramatically (I don't see this happening - it makes sense to have a phone on your computer, even more for businesses).
But, what if the stock ignores that gap, or those trendlines down below, and rises immediately? Even better, but I'm prepared for further downside.
EGHT had a strong rally yesterday, but technically we're not out of the woods yet. What happened yesterday was a "throwback" to the previous ascending TL2 on the chart below. As always, support becomes resistance and the stock had a bit of a sell off in mid session.
But it was nice to see it rebound so strongly, and volume was good too, at 1.8 million shares.
We still have that gap opened at $1.44, and the 50 day simple moving average coming up at $1.41 now. Technically we may go down there to test these medium term support areas and only then shot up above $2. But there's one thing that can prevent this short term scenario: value !
If the stock is very attractive from a fundamental standpoint at current prices and some institutional investors happen to know it, it just won't go down that low, forget about gaps and supports. Technical analysis needs to adapt, it isn't static.
I've been thinking that, since I make these updates everyday, I don't like the feeling of having a rigid stop. I'm confident that I will respect the market's will in all occasions, so why have a stop that only makes me weaker?
You know I never change the trading plan on an intraday basis and I always follow what I write, but I can adapt the trading plan when I make these updates. And I'm changing my plan on EGHT, I will hold the stock no matter what happens today.
eght has been downgraded. probably going lower. buying opportunity? soxguy
Hey soxguy, thanks for the info. Where did you find that downgrade, I can't find it.
Thanks in advance!
uc
i found it on the yahoo message board. there was a link to briefing.com. david feels pretty strongly about this one. might buy some more. we shall see. soxguy
Quote from: soxguy on November 30, 2006, 08:35:53 AM
i found it on the yahoo message board. there was a link to briefing.com. david feels pretty strongly about this one. might buy some more. we shall see. soxguy
Thanks for the information soxguy :)
Those guys seem like short term traders, upgraded the stock at September 20th when it closed at $1.19 and now downgraded it. I felt something like this would happen ... perhaps we'll close that gap at $1.44 and clean all the weak hands out of this VOIP play.
I'll continue holding no matter what happens today. Good luck !
Downgrades from briefing.com
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/UpgradesDowngrades.htm
DowngradesSort alphabetically | Sort by brokers
Company Ticker Brokerage Firm Ratings Change Price Target
EOG Resources EOG UBS Buy » Neutral
Novellus NVLS Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Sell
TiVo TIVO Oppenheimer Neutral » Sell $5
MIPS Techs MIPS AG Edwards Buy » Hold
Marathon Oil MRO Citigroup Buy » Hold
Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A HSBC Securities Neutral » Underweight
Tellabs TLAB First Albany Buy » Neutral
Marathon Oil MRO Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform $86
Allergan AGN Thomas Weisel Overweight » Market Weight
8x8 EGHT Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Merck MRK HSBC Securities Neutral » Underweight $41
I'm out at 1.65 guys :-[ Looking to buy back at a cheaper price.
Good luck to all still holding!
Thai
Quote from: thai626 on November 28, 2006, 11:23:32 AM
I'm with you on this one. Just bought in at 1.55 after I got stomped out of SIGA. ;)
Quote from: thai626 on November 30, 2006, 11:37:35 AM
I'm out at 1.65 guys :-[ Looking to buy back at a cheaper price.
Good luck to all still holding!
Thai
Well, you still got a profit of 6.45%, not bad :)
You know I'm not playing that kind of game here. It wouldn't be usefull for 3 SOF subscribers, and not usefull for me either ! I'm leaving the traders arena to enter the speculators zone.
Concerning EGHT, I actually expected something worse today (given the downgrade of the one analyst following the stock). It didn't went down 10 or 15% as it looked at the open.
I'm starting to think that the technical picture can unfold both ways:
1) EGHT goes down to the ascending support zone, $1.49 for the ascending TL1, $1.44 for the opened gap or $1.42 for the rising simple moving average (red on the chart below)
2) The support zone comes to EGHT ! TL1 is rising $0.01 per trading day and the SMA is also rising (which is bullish).
Another issue that I'm considering is that the stock is holding the $1.60 level on close, and this was a prior resistance level, now support.
Give it some more days and EGHT can actually push higher above $2 without breaking $1.60 on close. I was encouraged by the last two day's market action.
Fundamentally nothing changed, we have 10 quarters in a row of growing revenues and the company is almost profitable. I believe it makes perfect sense to have the phone on the computer, especially for businesses, why have one computer and one phone for every employee? Why not cut costs on equipment and phone bills merging the two equipments?
I know what you're thinking: "Ok, that's true David, but there are a lot of companies in the VOIP space, many of them bigger and better prepared". And I say: "You're right, but the market is big enough for everyone, and this opportunity won't have a big impact on a big company, like Bell South or AT&T, for example, but EGHT is a tiny company with a $100 M market cap, so a surge in demand will have a huge impact on the company's numbers and stock price".
We covered the technicals and some fundamental ideas, now I just have to say that I'll continue holding EGHT whatever happens.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 30, 2006, 06:16:51 PM
[
Well, you still got a profit of 6.45%, not bad :)
You know I'm not playing that kind of game here. It wouldn't be usefull for 3 SOF subscribers, and not usefull for me either ! I'm leaving the traders arena to enter the speculators zone.
Concerning EGHT, I actually expected something worse today (given the downgrade on the one analyst following the stock). It didn't went down 10 or 15% as it looked at the open.
I'm starting to think that the technical picture can unfold both ways:
1) EGHT goes down to the ascending support zone, $1.49 for the ascending TL1, $1.44 for the opened gap or $1.42 for the rising simple moving average (red on the chart below)
2) The support zone comes to EGHT ! TL1 is rising $0.01 per trading day and the SMA is also rising (which is bullish).
Another issue that I'm considering is that the stock is holding the $1.60 level on close, and this was a prior resistance level, now support.
Give it some more days and EGHT can actually push higher above $2 without breaking $1.60 on close. I was encouraged by the last two day's market action.
Fundamentally nothing changed, we have 10 quarters in a row of growing revenues and the company is almost profitable. I believe it makes perfect sense to have the phone on the computer, especially for businesses, why have one computer and one phone for every employee? Why not cut costs on equipment and phone bills merging the two equipments?
I know what you're thinking: "Ok, that's true David, but there are a lot of companies in the VOIP space, many of them bigger and better prepared". And I say: "You're right, but the market is big enough for everyone, and this opportunity won't have a big impact on a big company, like Bell South or AT&T, for example, but EGHT is a tiny company with a $100 M market cap, so a surge in demand will have a huge impact on the company's numbers and stock price".
We covered the technicals and some fundamental ideas, now I just have to say that I'll continue holding EGHT whatever happens.
Ya......I know what you're saying David. At first I wasn't going to sell either but I got burned too many times holding a stock when I shouldn't have :-\ . In this case, I was expecting EGHT to move lower at the open but to my surprise, it held strong for the whole day.
I may get back in very very soon but I want to see if it will attempt to touch the support line in the 1.50s. If I can get back in at 1.55, I'll be happy, otherwise, I'll just get it at any price I can afford. ;)
Good luck!
Thai
QuoteYa......I know what you're saying David. At first I wasn't going to sell either but I got burned too many times holding a stock when I shouldn't have :-\
I know what you mean thai626, and in doubt, stay out, so you did well !
I find it easier to hold a position for a longer period of time when I base my decision on both technicals and fundamentals, instead of just reading the tape. The tape is always changing and one has to do many trades to keep up with it, most of the times losing the main trend.
One has to be a very, very good short term trader to beat commission costs and slippage. Longer term I believe short term traders are doomed to fail.
QuoteI may get back in very very soon but I want to see if it will attempt to touch the support line in the 1.50s. If I can get back in at 1.55, I'll be happy, otherwise, I'll just get it at any price I can afford. ;)
Well, Friday's low was $1.57, so you almost made it :)
Some positive news, but irrelevant for the share price over the short term: 8x8, Inc. Chairman and CEO Bryan Martin Appointed to Governor Schwarzenegger's Broadband Task Force (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061201/laf037.html?.v=74)
EGHT held $1.60 on close again. Supports now stand at $1.50 for TL1 and $1.43 for the 50 days SMA. The stock also has that micro gap opened at $1.44.
It looks like supports are coming to EGHT, instead of EGHT going down to meet them. After this consolidation period is over I believe EGHT, given its technicals and fundamentals, will breakout above the $2 psychological barrier.
EGHT is still waiting for supports to catch up before it bounces. We have TL1 at $1.52, 50 day SMA at $1.44 and the little gap still opened at $1.44.
I expect the stock to trade around current levels, and perhaps have an intraday dip to support before it makes another atempt at the $1.95 high.
Technically the stock is in consolidation mode. Fundamentally I think it is very attractive, as you can read on the rest of this thread.
I'll continue holding EGHT.
EGHT went down a bit, closing below $1.60, but still didn't touch any of the support areas I've been mentioning. The stock wants to fly, but it isn't ready yet.
For tomorrow I have TL1 at $1.53, the 50 day SMA at $1.45 and the micro gap at $1.44. After several attempts to bounce, I think the real rally will come after testing at least one of these supports.
For all I care the stock may touch supports and then rise 15 or 20% in one day, absorbing the last couple of weeks consolidation period.
I'll continue holding EGHT.
Hi, here is my take on EGHT:
This stock historical trading pattern is that each of the previous three years, the stock reached year high in December. The best time to buy is around August.
See chart
This is where I would test the water with EGHT. >:D I would buy at this level but unfortunately.......all my funds have been used on other stocks. It's trading right at its support level so this would be a great time to jump in. Plus......David is so happy with the stock fundamentally. ;D
Too bad I don't have any funds to jump in. :'(
Thai
I guess I would be worried about EGHT's technical picture if I wasn't expecting a possible decline to close the micro gap opened at $1.44 for about a couple of weeks now.
A speculator must always be prepared for all possible outcomes, because, indeed, everything is possible. And he'll function much better if he's not surprised when the situation arrives.
I've read this thread (again), and the initial analysis was quite bullish, but I had one main concern:
QuoteI'm a believer in VOIP and I think EGHT can be an attractive long term investment. My biggest worry is dilution. Dilution can make the market cap grow, indeed, by 12 times over the next 3 years, and yet the share price only doubles, for example. So, if I decide to invest on EGHT, I'll watch the number of shares issued and outstanding like a hawk.
You know companies only reveal the number of shares issued and outstanding on their quarterly results SEC filings, so nobody knows the exact number on a daily basis. This is one of the risks of investing in small and still unprofitable companies.
But it wouldn't make any sense to chicken out now that EGHT share price is doing what I expected it to do for several days, that is, come down to medium term support levels before another leg up unfolds.
My best guess is: the weak hands will sell shares to a low around $1.44 and then the stock closes back above $1.5. That would be a technically perfect bottom.
I will continue holding EGHT through tomorrow's session, I need to see a clear close below $1.44 to know I was wrong. Until that happens, I'll maintain that EGHT is a buy with the same conviction I had on the initial recommendation.
The market will talk and I will listen, because above all, I'm humble and do respect the market.
EGHT felt the need to come out and say: "look, here's our business model" when it released today's press release:
New Packet8 Virtual Office PLUS Plans Eliminate Upfront Equipment Costs for Business Subscribers (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061207/sfth039.html?.v=79)
I think it is a simple and sound business model which is working, as shown by the 10 consecutive quarters of revenue growth.
Technically, here are my current thoughts:
1) $1.50 is probably the most important support area. It was a previous low and yesterday EGHT touched it again. This time it coincided with TL1 on the chart below, making it a double support area. The stock recovered some ground today even on a sharply down session in the general market.
2) Perhaps, when I talk about that micro gap at $1.44, I'm being too specific, and stocks don't behave in a mathematical manner. They reflect more of a human phenomenon.
So I'm completely opened to the possibility that the low on EGHT is in and the stock will trend higher from now on (I mean, the short term trend, because the medium term trend was already bullish).
Anyway, I can't be completely sure about the short term. But one thing I'm certain. I'll continue holding EGHT.
Another positive day for EGHT, moving further away from the $1.50 key support area. Fundamentally, the company seems very active pushing up their topline, check the aggressiveness of their website:
Packet8 (http://www.packet8.net)
Here's the quarterly revenue chart until Q3, 2006:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28063;image)
I'm pretty sure Q4 2006 will be another record quarter in terms of revenues, above $14 M (the one analyst covering the stock is expecting $14.48 M), bringing the company closer and closer to profitability. I think if the company is able to surpass $15 M a quarter in revenues it will be profitable. It's not a matter of "if", but "when". I would say 2Q 2007 will already show a little positive EPS.
I'll continue holding EGHT.
Unfortunately EGHT is still hovering around the ascending TL1 support. The 50 days SMA is coming up at $1.48 tomorrow, and we still have that little gap opened at $1.44.
As we've seen on this thread, EGHT's fundamental trends are healthy, but the market is taking some time to prove me right on this one. So, maybe I'm wrong.
Maybe, but for the time being, the medium term chart is still bullish ... as I see it, only a close below $1.44 will definitely turn the chart bearish.
Although I have confidence in my fundamental analysis, the market will is always supreme, in other words, I know what I'm doing, but the market always knows better. I respect that.
So, the trading plan for EGHT is: HOLD for as long as the stock is set to close above $1.44 (it may go to that point on an intraday basis, to close the micro-gap, but then claw back up to close above $1.50 - that would be an extremely bullish candlestick). SELL if the stock is set to close below $1.44.
EGHT looks determined to fill that gap before it can get back to the business of going higher. It even broke its trend line in the process...
For anyone on the sidelines, a buy at 1.43 can likely give a good return if you can get it there (I predict it fills and sort of bounds back up a bit elastically and hopefully close the day back near the trendline.)
very disappointed to see the close below $1.41
Unfortunately EGHT broke three supports today and, according to plan, I had to sell it for a 19.9% loss:
QuoteSo, the trading plan for EGHT is: HOLD for as long as the stock is set to close above $1.44 (it may go to that point on an intraday basis, to close the micro-gap, but then claw back up to close above $1.50 - that would be an extremely bullish candlestick). SELL if the stock is set to close below $1.44.
I still don't know what went wrong on the fundamentals, perhaps it was this on my initial analysis:
QuoteSince these are quarterly numbers, I can't call the increase in the number of outstanding shares "moderate". Unfortunately the company is issuing shares, and the market cap is growing faster than the share price advance implies.
Probably the company used the advance phase from August to mid November to issue and sell some more shares, as it has been its practice for years. I need to be more careful with stocks showing operating losses and a weak balance sheet, because the risk of dilution is always considerable in those cases.
Anyway, I was wrong and paid the price with dollars, as it should be. Learned my lesson. Now I'll just move on.
anyone watching this one? it may have stopped falling. i'm watching it. soxguy
eght up this morning on new product news. off the lows of 1.12. soxguy
up over 25%... could be another run at 2 bucks. soxguy
i noticed on the diet thread that david alluded to eght.on this one i sold when david did and took my loss.unlike a lot of other sells i continued to monitor it closely and bought it when it seemed to find a bottom at 1.15 last week. though it did dip to 1.12,it recovered and took off today. i sold at 1.62. i will keep watching it.by the way,i think that 1.15 level was roughly a 61% retracement. i'm not good at figuring those things. anyway,my point is that if i can make an ocasional buck,then there's hope for us all. soxguy
earnings out in the morning
WWW.EGHT.NET Info Sheet
Next Conference Call 9:00 a.m. Feb 1, 2007
Over 6,000 US Businesses (over 44,000 business lines) using Packet8 Virtual Office.
Packet8 TANGO - World's First Video Terminal Adapter!
Zero Corporate Debt.
Office Depot granted Exclusive Nationwide Retail rights for Virtual Office.
EGHT states: "Monthly cashflow positive will be achieved during Q1 2007"
Latest VOIP Patent "Click on Image" awarded Oct 2006
VOIP Patent Portfolio 65 Patents and growing!
Approx 9,000 New Virtual Office lines last quarter.
52% Gross Margin! Improving every quarter.
Revenues Up 86% over same qtr last year.
Net Loss Down 52%
$14.5M Cash Reserve
Cash reserve expected to bottom at approximately $10M
EGHT is NOT seeking additional capital.
EGHT is NOT seeking or planning a reverse stock split.
$99 Customer acquisition cost (lowest in industry).
Largest Installation so far... 240 Extensions
Multinational companies like UNISYS are choosing EGHT
EGHT Leads the market in VoIP features & performance.
Business and Residential FAX over IP.
INTEL teams up with EGHT for new Desktop PC VoIP with SOFTALK!!!!
ELEVENTH consecutive quarterly increase in Packet8 sales revenues!!!
Operating expenses are continuing to decline.
REDUCING operating expenses per line each month.
Virtual Office comprised 25% of total revenues qtr ending SEPT 2006.
Softalk Premium and Softalk Office released - World beating technology.
Nationwide Installation of Virtual Office now available through CompUSA.
6 party video conferencing on Softalk for Virtual Office.
With the recent upswing in the price of this stock, I assume the news coming out tomorrow has taken this into account? I had owned this once and made money on it and want to again but I am undecided if the share price has the earnings coming out tomorrow. Any opinions?
I plan to hold through earnings, as I think that EGHT could have some significant upside potential, but I will probably take a bit off the table today to give me a bit of a cushion on my buy in of 1.58. Have to look a bit more at what thinsg look like through the course of the day.
They are in a good space have been growing subscribers and we should start seeing soe fruits of the BellSouth deal, so I'm optimistic.
EGHT getting crushed after earnings. I am glad I decided to stay out until earnings.
yeah, I thought earnings were AFTER HOURS, and didn't set my stop. Ugh :P
Totally creamed and underwater now. what to do what to do....
This thing is tanking big time. I guess we now know the upswing didn't have this news in mind. But...was it this much of a surprise that it would bring tankers into this thing?
Maybe a great time to buy now!
Revenues for the third quarter of fiscal 2007 were $13.2 million, compared with $13.2 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2007 and $8.5 million for the same period of the prior year, an annual increase of 56%. The net loss for the quarter was $3.1 million or $0.05 per share, compared with a net loss of $2.7 million, or $0.04 per share for the second quarter of fiscal 2007 and a net loss of $6.8 million or $0.12 per share for the same period last year, a decrease in net loss of 55% over the prior year period. Total revenues for the nine-month periods ended December 31, 2006 and 2005, were $38.7 million and $21.6 million, respectively. Net losses for the nine month periods ended December 31, 2006 and 2005, were $11.5 million, or $0.19 per share, and $17.5 million, or $0.32 per share, respectively.
At the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2007, cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, and restricted cash totaled $12.4 million, and the company generated approximately $373,000 in cash during the month of December, three months ahead of the Company's previously stated forecast. The Company burned approximately $2.1M of cash in the third fiscal quarter, compared to $3.3M in the prior quarter and $5.2M in the June quarter.
The net loss in the third fiscal quarter was impacted by aggressive discounting and promotions, as well as $428,000 of employee stock-based compensation expense due to the adoption of Statement of Financial Account Standards No.123®, not present in the year-ago period. Excluding the impact of stock option expenses, the third quarter non-GAAP net loss was approximately $2.6 million. Gross margin for the December quarter was 52% compared to 21% for the same period last year.
"The monthly cash growth is a first and a huge milestone for 8x8 as a service provider, and we believe we are the first publicly traded, pure play Voice over IP service provider to achieve this accomplishment," said 8x8 Chairman and CEO Bryan Martin. "While our cash growth during the month of December was largely the result of limited inventory purchases, our cash flow on a steady state basis is now very close to break even, and within the range of our monthly discretionary spending on advertising and other marketing-related functions. We are very pleased that our diversified strategy of focusing on higher margin business service customers with our unique and patent-protected Packet8 Virtual Office technologies and video communication technologies are yielding these landmark results."
"By focusing on Packet8 Virtual Office sales, which have significantly higher margins and lower churn rates than residential services, we are capitalizing on the unique solutions that our Virtual Office services afford small and medium sized businesses. Due to this transition, total sequential quarterly revenue growth slowed, though quarterly revenue from both Virtual Office and video services increased sequentially by 30% and 22%, respectively, on target with our business model. In response to the increased interest in our business services, we more than doubled our direct sales force focused on these channels during the month of December," concluded Mr. Martin.
Early last month, the Company announced that over 6,000 U.S. based companies, ranging in size from three to 250 employees, now subscribe to the Packet8 Virtual Office suite of business services.
I know, I decided to hold on to my shares, would have actually been nice to pick some up right when I was panicking around 1.37. Must remeber that, usually in a panic sell situation, when you're really sweating it, is the time to BUY more shares as opposed to sell your shares, as so often it is good for a bounce and you may well get some profit back to cover your losses.
EGHT has been steadily stepping up through the rest of the day. Currently 1.50/1.51.
Unfortunately I've also been caught in this one and
decided to hold as 1.50 seems to be an acceptable support
Regret I could have had a 20 cents profit instead of the
current 9 cents loss
Good luck
For whatever reason my trade button didn't want to work so I couldn't even get into this stock today and ride the dip up from the low today. Maybe my button and I were a little scared of a further drop but not anymore. My plan is to try and get into this thing shortly after open and ride it tomorrow since all the long that couldn't stomach this got out. As you said scottishtrader, when it's' low buy low and try to recapture a loss into a gain or not as much of a loss. Makes good sense to me.
I sold half of my EGHT yesterday at 1.50, to lessen the risk with the rest of my position. Lost about 5% on that portion. Whichever way you slice it, yesterdays response to earnings was pretty bearish, and the results were a miss across the board, although mangements comments were pretty upbeat (I didn't listen to the CC, did anyone else?). We could see a bit of a reound today, but I think EGHT may get a bit stuck in the 1.50 range. I'm hopeing that 1.50 will hold for now though. I think it needs to get back above 1.60 to demonstrate that this isn't a trend change.
Management has to be upbeat. That's there only mission in life when a stock tanks on a day like yesterday. ;D
I hope the stock doesn't turn bearish as a result of the news. Maybe it was a good thing I couldn't trade on it yesterday but all seems well now as I made a trade on something else this morning. So are you saying for a trend reversal, hitting around 1.60 would be a good sign to get back in for a break out run?
I ask because it tanked quite a bit back starting in November and bottoming out in the beginning of January and had a nice rise. It now seems to be on a run down again. Again still being new to trying and trying to understand technical analysis, if it gets to around 1.20, are we looking at a double bottom and then in for a bull run? It looked like it hit around that same mark back in early January.
Good early morning activity and an upgraded Buy signal from Merriman Curhan Ford. They are also speaking at the Roth Capital Partners 19th Annual OC Conference on Thursday, February 22, 2007 at 11:30 a.m (CPNE is giving their guidance at this Conference too)
With WMT starting to sell SKYPE in it's store. It will hard on the sales of othe companies in this relm,so caution is the word.
Update:
The Wall Street Journal this weekend states.."Internet-phone company 8x8 (EGHT) even offers futuristic video phones." This is in reference to EGHT's recently released Tango Videophone which has been featured in Montel's TV show and it is now traveling all over the net on YouTube. More on Tango later.
Here is the link for this weekend's WSJ story on Internet Calling:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118074663033822198.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
The article also mentions that one of the limitations of VoIP providers is that they are not capable of offering 911 service. EGHT offers 911 and many other features that competitors don't or can not offer. EGHT's technology is protected by 68 patents.
Technically, EGHT's chart shows that a breakout can now occur any day after basing at $1.4 for almost a month:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?eght
EGHT has over $11M cash and no debt. There are only 64M O/S shares and 40M shares on the float.
EGHT is the fastest growing VoIP phone/video/fax provider to small and medium businesses (SMBs) according to a recent report.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070517/sfth028.html?.v=101
The report says that EGHT is ahead of XO Communications, Cbeyond and Covad in this sector. The hosted-VoIP market for SMBs is expected to grow from $410M in 2007 to $1.5B in 2010. EFHT's recent growth from 5000 customers in October 2006 to 7000 SMB customers in March 2007 suggests that EGHT might be growing at a faster rate than the entire sector.
SMB customers produce higher margins and also stay longer with a provider than residential customers.
Most of EGHT's residential customers come for Vonage and because they are lured by EGHT's superior technology like its newly introduced Tango Videophone (shipments started at the end of March of 2007)
The link below shows the Montel show featuring the Tango Videophone and many other Tango-related YouTube videos from users ranging from residential to commercial:
http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=bmartin8x8com
EGHT's 4Q and FY 2006 results reported on May 7 show the company's significant improvement in all metrics:
- Beat analysts 4Q revenue estimate of $13.5M with $14.4M for 4Q 2006
- Yearly revenues grew by 67%!! going from $31.9M in 2005 to $53.1M in 2006.
- 4Q 2005 revenue grew by 39% going from $10.3M to $14.4M
- Gross margins have increased every quarter to over 50%.
- 4Q cash burn of little over $400K has been reduced significantly every quarter.
- EGHT has $11M in cash and no long term debt.
The following webpage contains the latest company presentation. Starting on Page 13 you can see graphically EGHT remarkable improvenet in all financial metrics in the last few quarters:
http://www.8x8.com/index.php?s=awards
DO YOUR OWN DD BEFORE YOU INVEST
The EGHT Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.
I will leave you Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread.......
Good trading to all ! ;) ;D
Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis