3SOF

Grey Wolf, Inc. (GW). The Group's principal activity is to provide contract land drilling services to the oil and gas industry in the United States.

GW has been around for a long, long time. My stock database only goes back to 1980, and Grey Wolf is there:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2724;image)

On the short term chart, we can see that volume has been awesome for the last couple of months:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2725;image)

We have an uptrend in place, volume above average for several days and a bullish breakout on Friday. As a friend of this website says «it doesn't get much better than this».

This stock could have a «no brainer» technical trading plan. Buy and hold the stock as long as it closes above the blue trendline.

3 Stocks on Fire Community take on GW (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=search2&search=GW)

GW has passed through my technical filters too many times for me to continue ignoring it. I'm buying GW at today's open, 6.66% of capital.

This analysis is part of «Top 5 Stocks for Monday», conducted by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire. David Randolph is managing a public and diversified portfolio which is up 140% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php).

At www.3stocksonfire.org we have a vast community of investors, traders and speculators that everyday exchange stock picks, trading strategies and much more. If you want to join our community and receive our free newsletter, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).

Looks like a nice pick, David.  Very well-defined Symmetrical Triangle with 3 hits to the top of the pattern...4 hits to the bottom of the pattern.  Broke out on Friday.  I'll buy this one if it retraces some of Friday's candle.  7.80 - 7.85ish.

Hi David
Earning report for GW is coming out this Wed. Do you think it will effect the uptrend in anyway. Do you anticipate a good erning on the report ? TIA

I don't know yuyjust, but considering the market action the news will be positive. My trading plan is very simple on GW: hold as long as the stock closes above the ascending trendline on the chart below.

The stock closed yesterday at $8.20 on AH.

Yesterday's candle for GW shows a Hanging Man with a very long tail at 7.57.  I'm almost sure that's a bad tick, if it matters to anyone.  I wanted GW in the low to mid-7.80s, and it never traded near there on my intraday chart.  The low yesterday was only around 7.94-ish.  FWIW (For what it's worth).

What a strange candle on GW, was this low for real? I didn't watch the intraday ... if it was for real it was a great test to support, very bullish.

Earnings came out after the close: Grey Wolf, Inc. Announces Operating Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2005 (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=44212&guid=%7BEE220668%2D7090%2D4042%2DBCB5%2DFFEEF0A6C052%7D&symb=)

They seem great !

(you've probably already noticed I'm running out of time on these updates before the opening bell. If you have any comments to add, I'll appreciate it)

The plan is to hold GW as long as it closed above the ascending blue trendline.

Quote from: David Randolph on July 27, 2005, 08:39:15 AM
What a strange candle on GW, was this low for real? I didn't watch the intraday ... if it was for real it was a great test to support, very bullish.

You were typing when I posted on yesterday's candle, 3 minutes before your post.
Scroll back.   ;D

Thanks for the input Melf Elf, it really would have been a strange day on GW. It was a pity you couldn't bought around $7.80 ... (well, we'll see about that).

Quote from: David Randolph on July 27, 2005, 09:17:38 AM
Thanks for the input Melf Elf, it really would have been a strange day on GW. It was a pity you couldn't bought around $7.80 ... (well, we'll see about that).

Thanks, David.  Just bought GW at 7.78 on the pullback to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.  Stop is a CLOSE or obvious late day tank below 7.51.  Risk: a loss of 3.5%. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 27, 2005, 09:40:55 AM
Thanks, David. Just bought GW at 7.78 on the pullback to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout. Stop is a CLOSE or obvious late day tank below 7.51. Risk: a loss of 3.5%.

David,

Strange that GW took out yesterday's bad print of 7.57, by printing 7.53 today.  It's as though the chart knew something yesterday  ???

We're fininshing today on a bullish hammer off important support.  Holding my postion.

Yesterday's action looks to be a classisc case of "buy the rumor...sell the news."  From what I can discern, the earnings were fine, but that already had been anticipated during the rally GW has enjoyed.  When earnings came out, they "sold the news."  That's fine, as long as "selling the news" doesn't mean trashing the stock, and breaking important support.

When I bought at 7.78 yesterday morning, I hoped that I was catching it near the low of the day, and that it would rally off a re-test of the top of the Symmetrical Triangle.  Instead, it went down and re-tested both David's up trendline (in blue) AND the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle (in brown), then it rallied into the close, putting a Bullish Doji Star Hammer on the chart (needs upside follow-thru to confirm).

As it stands, yesterday was a successful re-test of DOUBLE support (held two trendlines).  We shouldn't see the low of 7.53 get taken out at all,and  certainly not on a closing basis.  If we go back down to that area, especially on volume, I likely won't wait to get stopped out below 7.51 on a closing basis.  I'll take the 3.5% loss on the trade.

Melf Elf absolutely said it all, I agree with him on all fronts, be it on the interpretation of market behaviour or on technical analysis.

GW must be set to close above $7.64 or I'll have to take a small loss. It doesn't look like I'll have to do that, though. The trendline held strong on yesterday's all important session.

Yesterday's closing action was too close to call, so I kept GW. To maintain the ascending trend intact, the red candle from yesterday shouldn't have continuation today, so my plan on GW is to keep the stock if it closes higher, and sell it if it is set to close lower.

Just barely, but GW held the line on Friday's close. I expect a rally today (we may get some help from a bullish article at the Street.com) on oil drillers.

Anyway, GW should close higher today for me to continue holding the stock. That's my plan (hold as long as the close is above an ascending trendline) and I will follow it !

King Fahd dies today.  :o

Oil Climbs as Saudi King's Death Adds to Concern About Supplies

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $61 a barrel in New York after Saudi Arabia's King Fahd, ruler of the world's largest oil exporter, died, heightening concern about supplies following refinery disruptions in the U.S. and Europe.

More...http://tinyurl.com/cdnzx

GW is definitely set to rise. Look at the behavior around the ascending trendline, look at the volume increase yesterday, think about the long term trend in oil prices.

GW is the kind that I want !

GW continues to behave perfectly, technically speaking. The stock opened with a little gap up, came down exactly to close the gap at $7.81 and continued higher. I see this stock closing this week above $8, possibly at a new 52 week high above $8.20.

What an unpleasant surprise on GW  ??? Anyway, I'll keep the plan, and if the stock is set to close lower today I'll have to take a small loss on this one.

RULE #13 : Take big profits and small losses

It's a lot easier to say than to do, believe me. But it is wise, it is simple and brings money over the long run, possibly a lot of money.

Diversification, respect for the market and discipline in every aspect of your trading will bring you 50% a year. Have you ever tried to compound 50% a year through a period of 20 or 30 years?

Coming back to GW, there's nothing I can do, if if I see the stock will close lower today (that is, clearly below the ascending trendline) I'll sell before close.

Oops, wrong chart here David ;)

Thanks for the warning basonista, it's right now.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 27, 2005, 09:40:55 AM
Just bought GW at 7.78 on the pullback to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.  Stop is a CLOSE or obvious late day tank below 7.51.  Risk: a loss of 3.5%. 

Sold it here at 7.81 for a very small gain.  I thought that I was getting a bargain when I bought it 9 days ago, but it's been no bargain. :( 

The past two days have opened at the highs, then closed on the up trendline.  Unimpressive, given the rallies in oil that we've had while I've owned it.  I'm out.

I respect Melf Elf's opinion but I'm still holding GW. Will sell only if the stock is set to close lower today, that would definitely break the ascending trendline.

(sorry for the late update, some personal problems)

There was nothing I could do with GW but to sell it near the close (at $7.62 as you can see on the homepage).

Took a 5% loss on this one. It's boring to take so many small losses, but this is how the game must be played to get a high performance at the end of the year - RULE 13: Take big profits and small losses.

Hi David I wanted to mention to you IBD has Grey Wolf as one of their top 10 under $10.  I saw this last week, I believe it was no. 3 or 5.

Titan oil and gas...TNOG...

I own this already. It looks like things are heating up for tomorrow and Tuesday.

Do your own DD.  I am comfortable owning it. I think I bought it at .034
It is now at .023

Steven

I couldn't help but buy!

In at 7.77.

And then reading this (from the yahoo board) - after getting rid of the hiccups from laughing, I was hoping that someone from our very international site maybe could come up with a better translation?


Recommend this Post  Ignore this User | Report Abuse 
Galp Energia to bid for GW
by: KPillar331
Long-Term Sentiment: Hold  08/10/05 04:40 pm
Msg: 30990 of 31009

I found this information in the Journal De Negocios, a Portugese publication. The article was published today. Here it is translated by Google verbatim:

Lisbon - source from Galp energy said today that Galp Energy will launch to takeover you the Grey Wolf Inc.. Galp Energy, will notifie next friday the Portuguese National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) that it was willing you waive the condition of 75% minimum acceptance level you which its public to offer will be the acquisition of Grey Wolf Inc. shares was subject, taking into consideration that the response received will be sufficient you develop the business project pursued through the to takeover bid. Galp Energy will launch to takeover bid will be Grey Wolf Inc. with the payment of 8,75 euros will be each of the that responded you the to tend to offer, this initial to offer could reach the limit of price of 9,15 euros will be each share of the company. Abaut Galp Energy: Born in the to year 2000, Galp Energy is the holding responsible will be the reshaping of the portuguese energy sector, in the oil and natural gas businesses. Goal Our is you build the oil national and gas company, compliant with modern international standards, you be key to player in the Portuguese economy, and you grow in the international energy industry, by becoming relevant competitor in the Iberian market. Our commitment is you secure the consumers ' preference through integrated energy offers and complementary services in the markets where Galp Energy may obtain competitive advantages, adding value you the shareholders, clients and employees.

;D ;D ;D

No offend to portugese but their 'name' has been used now quite often for unfounded takeovers. Just want to say in bold its FAKE.

Also suggesting strongly to stay away from yahoo boards and their phoney posters.

GW may have its own merits or demerits. If I am going to buy any drilling services stock then its doing to be this one. Goodluck.

I hear you, stocky!

But later there was also this post, so I don't think it's a fake:

http://www.negocios.pt/default.asp?CpContentId=263104&ListComment=1&CpMsgId=325479

You are right in warning about the yahoo-boards...there is an incredible amount of junk there that one have to wade trough.
But once in a while there is a "nugget"  ;) the challenge is just to sift the gravel.
I automatically dismiss  ;D EVERYTHING WRITTEN LIKE THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  ;D

Well, we'll see what happens.

My SOSA is doing really well, so...

The 20 & 50dma are about to cross.  I'm looking for a bounce off the 50dma. 

The only item it needs is VOLUME!  Keep it on the radar.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GW&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=m20,m50&a=r14,vm&c=

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 16, 2005, 04:13:49 AM

GW and others have acted weak during the recent rally in oil, which leaves me wondering if they aren't telegraphing at least a short-term selloff in oil.

GW was down again yesterday, and it's down again today with the selloff in oil that these stocks have seemed to be telegraphing.  Oil is off $2.50 today.

The short trade that I outlined in the post above worked out (I didn't play it).  GW has come all the way back to the bottom of the Bear Channel (7.13) this afternoon, printing 7.11.   

The point of origin of broken bearish patterns is an expected target, and an area where it's a good idea to cover short positions, or at least partially cover them.

Thank you for the replies.  Excellent graphics btw.

After studying the chart further it appears to be trading along a ~175dma and with the market in a possible correction mode I can see it dropping to this line which would price it around $6.40'ish.

I'm definately no expert and enjoy learning more everyday so feel free to speak frankly.

Jody

chart....

Anyone got this one on their radar?

Cramer said to buy it yesterday   as a general rule i try to stay out of stocks he pumps

Grey Wolf, Inc. Announces Record Operating Results for...


HOUSTON, May 2, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Grey Wolf, Inc. (GW, Trade) ("Grey Wolf" or the "Company") reported net income of $58.6 million, or $0.27 per share on a diluted basis, for the three months ended March 31, 2007 compared with net income of $54.2 million, or $0.24 per share on a diluted basis, for the first quarter of 2006. Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 were $242.0 million compared with revenues for the first quarter of 2006 of $222.9 million. The first quarter 2006 results included an after tax gain of $5.9 million ($0.03 per diluted share) for the sale of five rigs formerly held for refurbishment.

"Grey Wolf surpassed previous highs for net income and net income per share in the first quarter reflecting the benefits of our term contract portfolio and our new rigs entering the market," commented Tom Richards, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. "Four of the six new 1,500 horsepower rigs we ordered in 2006 generated profits during the first quarter. The fifth rig began working in the second quarter and the sixth rig is scheduled for delivery during the third quarter."

Mr. Richards continued, "Daywork and turnkey EBITDA per day reached levels not previously achieved in the Company's history. EBITDA from our daywork operations increased 21% over the first quarter of 2006 and contributed to record quarterly EBITDA of $116.9 million."

The Company's total earnings before interest expense, taxes, depreciation and amortization ("EBITDA") of $116.9 million in the first quarter of 2007 rose from $105.0 million for the fourth quarter 2006 and $106.3 million for the first quarter 2006. On a per-rig-day basis, EBITDA was $11,780 for the first quarter of 2007, $10,384 for the fourth quarter of 2006 and $10,866 for the first quarter of 2006. Turnkey EBITDA per rig day in the first quarter of 2007 was $21,536 and daywork EBITDA per rig day totaled $11,131.

Mr. Richards added, "The Company also is pleased to announce that we have signed a three year term contract for two 3,000-horsepower rigs to go to work in Mexico for a major international oilfield services company. Operations are expected to commence under the contract late in the third quarter this year."

Mr. Richards concluded, "The addition of newly built rigs into the land drilling market has created some excess rig capacity which has led to a decline in spot market dayrates. This downward pressure could continue as additional new rigs enter the market, however, Grey Wolf's portfolio of term contracts and our premium quality equipment coupled with our skilled rig crews have helped buffer our exposure to the erosion in spot market dayrates. Because of strong commodity prices for both oil and natural gas, we believe there will be demand for additional land rigs later this year."

Today, the Company is marketing 120 rigs, with 75 of those working under daywork term contracts, 25 working under spot market daywork contracts, 7 working under turnkey contracts and 13 rigs are idle. Grey Wolf averaged 110 rigs working in the first quarter of 2007. This compares with an average of 110 rigs working in the fourth quarter of 2006 and 109 rigs working during the first quarter of 2006. Under daywork term contracts, the Company has approximately 15,700 days, or an average of 57 rigs, contracted for the remaining three quarters of 2007 and 7,900 days or an average of 22 rigs committed in 2008. Current leading edge bid rates have declined by approximately 15% to 25% from six months ago and now range from $16,000 to $22,000 per day without fuel or top drives.

Capital expenditures totaled $67.4 million in the first quarter of 2007. Based upon the remaining payments for the new rig purchases and 2007 rig activity, capital expenditures for 2007 are projected to be $140 million to $150 million.

Under the previously announced plan that authorizes the repurchase of up to $100.0 million of Grey Wolf common stock, the Company purchased 1.6 million shares during the first quarter of 2007 at a total cost of $10.8 million. In total, 10.9 million shares have been bought under this plan in the past year for a total cost of $75.9 million.

During the second quarter of 2007, the Company expects to average 101 to 104 rigs working with seven to nine of these rigs performing turnkey services. Average daywork revenue per day is expected to decrease by $1,200 to $1,500 as excess rigs in the market continue to pressure spot market dayrates. Depreciation expense of approximately $22.1 million, interest expense of approximately $3.5 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 37% are expected for the second quarter of 2007.

Grey Wolf has scheduled a conference call May 3, 2007 at 9:00 a.m. CT to discuss first quarter 2007 results. The call will be web cast live on the Internet through the Investor Relations page on the Company's website at:


                          http://www.gwdrilling.com 

To participate by telephone, call (800) 287-0836 domestically or (212) 676-4903 internationally ten to fifteen minutes prior to the starting time. The reservation number is 21333137. A replay of the conference call will be available by telephone from 11:00 a.m. CT on May 3, 2007 until 11:00 a.m. CT on May 5, 2007. The telephone number for the replay of the call is (800) 633-8284 domestically or (402) 977-9140 internationally and the access code is 21333137. The call will be available for replay through the Grey Wolf website for approximately two weeks after the conclusion of the call.

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The specific forward-looking statements cover our expectations and projections regarding: demand for the Company's services; excessive rig supply in the market, the benefits of term contracts; second quarter 2007 rig activity, average daywork revenue per day, dayrates, projected depreciation, projected tax rate and interest expense; expected new rig delivery schedule; projected capital expenditures in 2007 and projected returns on new build rigs. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of important factors, many of which are beyond our control, that could cause actual results to differ materially, including oil and natural gas prices and trends in those prices, the pricing and other competitive policies of our competitors, uninsured or under-insured casualty losses, cost of insurance coverage, increasing rig supply, changes in interest rates, unexpected costs under turnkey drilling contracts, weather conditions, and the overall level of drilling activity in our market areas. Please refer to our 2006 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 27, 2007 for additional information concerning risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

Grey Wolf, Inc., headquartered in Houston, Texas, is a leading provider of turnkey and contract oil and gas land drilling services in the best natural gas producing regions in the United States with a current total drilling rig fleet of 120, which will increase to 121 with the expected addition of a new rig by the end of the third quarter of 2007.


 
                                                      SOURCE Grey Wolf, Inc.


David W. Wehlmann, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer of Grey 
Wolf, Inc., +1-713-435-6100, or fax, +1-713-435-6170 

http://www.gwdrilling.com 

Copyright (C) 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved ********************************************************************** As of Saturday, 04-28-2007 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend? Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 04-16-2007 for GW @ $7.16. For more information on SmarTrend, contact your market data provider or go to www.mysmartrend.com SmarTrend is a registered trademark of Comtex News Network, Inc. Copyright ? 2004-2007 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights reserved.

Nice to see GW start to move in the right direction.
Good 13 and 50-day MA, looks promising, earnings are up and a lot of spare cash floating around in the industry.
Great value,
Profit margin, return on equity, growth rate, PEG, price-sales ratio...everything about this stock points to a screaming buy.
Looks like a nice Cup and Handel on the chart.
Closing in on the "Golden Cross" !


Strong First Quarter for Grey Wolf,
Grey Wolf, reported strong first-quarter 2007 results, reflecting continued strength in its underlying business. While the growing entry of new-builds is exacerbating the market's supply-demand fundamentals...as reflected in soft spot dayrates...Grey Wolf is better positioned to meet this challenge with the help of its premium fleet and relatively stable term contracts.

52wk Range: 6.10 - 8.57
Volume: 3,113,075
Avg Vol (3m): 3,208,980

Technicals
Most Actives

Last Price Quote is:
2.13%above 13-day MA
7.07%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 27 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $82.85 
P/E Ratio: 6.28 
PEG Ratio: 0.20241 
Next Earnings: 08/06/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform

Nice upswing....... :o 
+ The Double Bottom (reversal) Pattern
I'm telling you...You're going to want some GW.

Recent CandleStick Analysis
Very Bullish
May-17-2007 Bullish Engulfing 

Support @ $7.70...

52wk Range: 6.10 - 8.15
Volume: 4,930,997
Avg Vol (3m): 3,313,610

Technicals
Most Actives
MACD is Bullish

Last Price Quote is:
4.44%above 13-day MA
9.94%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 33 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $82.85 
P/E Ratio: 6.28 
PEG Ratio: 0.212048 
Next Earnings: 08/06/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform

Quote from: setravis on May 20, 2007, 03:58:21 PM
Nice upswing....... :o 
+ The Double Bottom (reversal) Pattern
I'm telling you...You're going to want some GW.

Good looking chart.......
Grey Wolf's chart and indicators look very strong and should continue its uptrend.
Earnings are good, PE respectable.
I think this bull market area will have an excellent year and
GW will continue making new highs.
I'm not sure it will drop in price enough to
wait before buying. At this price I see GW as a time to buy now.

52wk Range: 6.10 - 8.46
Volume: 1,714,100
Avg Vol (3m): 3,597,780

Technicals
Record Price High
Close Above the 13-day MA
Most Actives

Last Price Quote is:
3.68%above 13-day MA
9.64%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 30 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $82.85 
P/E Ratio: 6.28 
PEG Ratio: 0.544444 
Next Earnings: 08/06/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform

GW's video analysis:




There isn't much thinking to do on GW, expectations were very low and the company has been surprising on the upside as the oil price is near its highs. Valuation is about half of its industry peers. Technically the stock has been very strong lately and on Friday had its highest volume in  a year, at 11.3 million shares.

The Trading Plan is:

Buy GW, 6.66% of capital as always.

David,

When you showed the table comparing the GW's EPS numbers with those of the competitors' and the industry standard, I noticed, that all competitors also have lower than the average numbers. Why is that, in your mind? And why should GW surpass the competitors, e.g. PTEN?

                   GW      HP     NBR    PTEN  Industry
EPS (ttm): 1.005  3.750  3.540  3.857  0.22
P/E (ttm):  8.56    9.63    9.91    7.17   16.86
PEG (5 yr expected): 0.99 N/A 0.43 1.71 0.99
P/S (ttm):  1.65    2.60    2.01    1.74    4.52

Why do you show only a 2.3% size on the holding?

Quote from: DragonAMG on June 25, 2007, 12:28:28 PM
Why do you show only a 2.3% size on the holding?

Sorry, the quantity of shares wasn't right, instead of 3,100 shares I inserted 1,100 in the website's administration. It's fixed now.

Quote from: berloga on June 25, 2007, 09:16:09 AM
David,

When you showed the table comparing the GW's EPS numbers with those of the competitors' and the industry standard, I noticed, that all competitors also have lower than the average numbers. Why is that, in your mind? And why should GW surpass the competitors, e.g. PTEN?

                   GW      HP     NBR    PTEN  Industry
EPS (ttm): 1.005  3.750  3.540  3.857  0.22
P/E (ttm):  8.56    9.63    9.91    7.17   16.86
PEG (5 yr expected): 0.99 N/A 0.43 1.71 0.99
P/S (ttm):  1.65    2.60    2.01    1.74    4.52

Land drillers are at crossroads now. Bears continue to argue about the drill rig overcapacity, the bleak outlook this year, and the perceived anemic growth in the years that follow. On the other hand, the few "remaining" bulls and value investors are pointing to the attractive valuation and the solid fundamentals still in place now.
PTEN has recorded a positive  free cash flow for six years in a row. PTEN's 14% share of total footage drilled is nothing short of impressive.
Expect some bad quarter ahead for land drillers in the US,  drill rig overcapacity anticipated to be worked out by 2008

GW volume - rebalance of the Russel 2000

Allis-Chalmers Corp (ALY better value) oil play and HERO on Pullback target $55 next year

Thanks for your post and view yukiii :)

I certainly wasn't expecting to start losing 3.18% out of the gate with GW. It makes me feel like selling out right way, according to the principle that "a good trade is profitable right from the start". But my best trades this year, GOAM, HAUP, SYX, TSL, NGA, SILC and NVTL, for example, all started out as losers.

If the day marked with "1" is any indicative of GW's short term technical behavior the stock should come back strongly today. Next we have the ascending trendline support, currently at $7.97.

I'll keep holding GW.

GW has been growing 30% a year and trades at about 8 times earnings, this is too cheap in my view. I'll keep holding GW.

GW earned $8 M in 2004, $120 M in 2005 and $219 M in 2006. The market cap is just $1.56 B.

I see there are convertible debentures, warrants or something like that outstanding, because basic EPS in 2006 was $1.16 and EPS on a fully diluted basis was "only" $0.98. I'm going to have to investigate this for the next update.

Anyway, even considering the fully diluted EPS of $0.98, the company is trading at $8.44/$0.98 = 8.6 times earnings. Too cheap to handle, since the Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration trades at an average of 13.35 times earnings.

Nice come back yesterday, I'll keep holding GW. 

(http://ipowerhost.net/drillers5.jpg)

Buy HERO instead

Analysts at Capital Bank Southcoast reiterate their "buy" rating on Hercules Offshore Inc (ticker: HERO), while revising their estimates for the company. The target price is set to $41.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has bought a 200' liftboat for $7.4 million, which is expected to commence work in early 2008 at a dayarate close to $20,000. Hercules Offshore has indicated that three of its jackups are idle and are expected to remain so until the end of the month. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been reduced from $4.19 to $3.95 to reflect idle jackup time and insurance costs. The EPS estimate for 2008 has been raised from $5.27 to $5.35 to reflect the liftboat acquisition.

QuoteBuy HERO instead

Analysts at Capital Bank Southcoast reiterate their "buy" rating on Hercules Offshore Inc (ticker: HERO), while revising their estimates for the company. The target price is set to $41.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has bought a 200' liftboat for $7.4 million, which is expected to commence work in early 2008 at a dayarate close to $20,000. Hercules Offshore has indicated that three of its jackups are idle and are expected to remain so until the end of the month. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been reduced from $4.19 to $3.95 to reflect idle jackup time and insurance costs. The EPS estimate for 2008 has been raised from $5.27 to $5.35 to reflect the liftboat acquisition.

Yes, at first sight HERO looks very nice. I'll take a look at it over the weekend, thanks for the suggestion.

About the table you show for GW and others, I know analysts expect earnings to decline in 2007 versus 2006, but the company surprised everybody in Q1 2007 reporting record EPS of $0.27. If the 1st quarter momentum continues, it will earn $1.08 in 2007, against the average $0.85 expectation.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 28, 2007, 04:56:46 AM

QuoteBuy HERO instead

Analysts at Capital Bank Southcoast reiterate their "buy" rating on Hercules Offshore Inc (ticker: HERO), while revising their estimates for the company. The target price is set to $41.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has bought a 200' liftboat for $7.4 million, which is expected to commence work in early 2008 at a dayarate close to $20,000. Hercules Offshore has indicated that three of its jackups are idle and are expected to remain so until the end of the month. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been reduced from $4.19 to $3.95 to reflect idle jackup time and insurance costs. The EPS estimate for 2008 has been raised from $5.27 to $5.35 to reflect the liftboat acquisition.

Yes, at first sight HERO looks very nice. I'll take a look at it over the weekend, thanks for the suggestion.

About the table you show for GW and others, I know analysts expect earnings to decline in 2007 versus 2006, but the company surprised everybody in Q1 2007 reporting record EPS of $0.27. If the 1st quarter momentum continues, it will earn $1.08 in 2007, against the average $0.85 expectation.

The addition of newly built rigs into the land drilling market has created some excess rig capacity which has led to a decline in spot market dayrates. This downward pressure could continue as additional new rigs enter the market, however, Grey Wolf's portfolio of term contracts and our premium quality equipment coupled with our skilled rig crews have helped buffer our exposure to the erosion in spot market dayrates. Because of strong commodity prices for both oil and natural gas, we believe there will be demand for additional land rigs later this year."

GW: Raymond James Cuts to Outperform from Strong Buy
Monday , July 02, 2007 09:47ET
Issuer: Grey Wolf, Inc. (AMEX: GW)
Analyst Firm:  Raymond James Financial Inc.
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Outperform (from Strong Buy)

Quote from: la-onda on July 04, 2007, 10:46:39 PM
GW: Raymond James Cuts to Outperform from Strong Buy
Monday , July 02, 2007 09:47ET
Issuer: Grey Wolf, Inc. (AMEX: GW)
Analyst Firm:  Raymond James Financial Inc.
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Outperform (from Strong Buy)

What a pity. Any reason for the downgrade, do you know la-onda? I want to know more about GW, because the stock has been performing quite poorly since I bought it, and I'm already losing 5.65% in it, even though it trades at just 8 times 2006 EPS. I guess that, like Warren Buffet says "if the key to a big fortune was the knowledge to divide two numbers" LOL

Over the past few years GW grew strongly, but what does the future lies? I guess that with the oil price this high, the future can only get better, right? Anyway, in my valuation model I expect just 5% revenue CAGR for the next three years, and still, I get an optimal selling price of  $15.81.

I'll keep holding GW, perhaps the recent market action is just a simple voyage to the 50 days SMA support, now at $7.84 (it may very well open right there, because of the downgrade).

thats all what I have David:
;)
cheers
Oliver

.....

ENERGY
The Energy sector was a solid performer today, but was not able to garner the top leadership position. Oil prices fluctuated all day but ended the day higher allowing the price to move above $71 per barrel. The Energy sector came out of the gate hot today before slipping during midmorning trading. Heading into noon trading the sector caught a bid and moved it to its session highs and ending the day up around 1%.

Raymond James made several ratings change in the sector. These changes included:
- InterOil Corp (IOC) upgraded from Outperform to Strong Buy
- Schlumberger Ltd (SLB) upgraded from Outperform to Strong Buy
- Cameron International Corp (CAM) upgraded from Outperform to Strong Buy
- FMC Technologies Inc (FTI) upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform.
- Patterson0UTI Energy Inc (PTEN) downgraded from Strong Buy to Outperform
- Nabors Industries Ltd (NBR) downgraded from Strong Buy to Outperform
- Grey Wolf Inc (GW) downgraded from Strong Buy to Outperform
- Pride International Inc (PDE) downgraded from Strong Buy to Outperform
- BJ Services Co (BJS) downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform

Goldman Sachs upgraded Buckeye Partners LP (BPL) from Neutral to Buy, and downgraded Buckeye GP Holdings LP (BGH) from Buy to Neutral.

Too bad we didn't buy BTJ instead, before breaking out of the 7 week base on Monday.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BTJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p19195000122

Quote from: BigSully1 on July 05, 2007, 10:55:41 AM
Too bad we didn't buy BTJ instead, before breaking out of the 7 week base on Monday.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BTJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p19195000122

Too bad we didn't bought LOCM instead, up 228% in 4 days ;D

I don't know if GW's fall is due to any fundamental problem or just a normal correction from the last advance phase with no fundamental meaning. At first sight I say it is the latter, that is, the stock is very attractive from a fundamental standpoint, however profit taking (and loss taking) took it down 5.88% from my buying price.

If this is the case the stock will come back up and breakout above $9.

But I need to study this stock, and the next two of the Main, more deeply, therefore I'll start by GW's update this weekend (I always have more patience for the first few updates, when I get to the last ones on the list I'm always feeling tired and less enthusiastic).

I'll continue holding GW.

GW's management thinks it is a good business to buy the company's stock:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38735;image)

In Q1 2007, the company bought 1.6 million shares for $10.8 M. That means $6.75 a share, on average. Nice entry price.

The company still has cash and equivalents of $273.7 M, so it will probably buy some more shares if the price goes down. The downside is somewhat protected by this. Buying back shares also helps to report higher EPS numbers, since EPS = Net Income/# shares outstanding.

However I've identified the problems of overcapacity that yukiii talked about in the beginning of this thread:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38736;image)

The company says the following about its own business:

«Our business is cyclical and our financial results depend upon several factors. These factors include the overall demand for land drilling services, the dayrates we receive for our services, the level of demand for turnkey services, our success drilling turnkey wells and the demand for deep versus shallow drilling services.»

So I need to investigate these five factors:

1) Overall demand for land drilling services
2) The dayrates
3) The level of demand for turnkey services
4) Their success drilling turnkey wells
5) The demand for deep versus shallow drilling services.

Not an easy task, but I have this:

«Our average daywork dayrate realized during the first quarter of 2007 was approximately 19% higher than it was during the first quarter of 2006. As a result of newly-built and refurbished rigs that have come to market, there is currently some excess capacity of land drilling rigs, and this may increase as additional new rigs enter the market. Since the fourth quarter of 2006, we and some of our competitors have experienced and may continue to experience some rigs becoming idle. Spot market dayrates have been weakening in connection with the excess supply of land drilling rigs. While we have a significant number of existing term contracts at fixed dayrates that have buffered our exposure to the recent erosion in spot market dayrates and the effects of extra capacity, we expect to experience additional pressure on our overall dayrates in the second quarter of 2007 as some of our spot and term contracts come up for renewal at lower rates. As of April 30, 2007, our leading edge rates range from $15,000 to $22,000 per rig day, without fuel or top drives, which is an approximate 15%-25% decline from six months ago.»

I see at their historical financial results that indeed, the business is very cyclical (for example, 2002 revenues were 40% lower than in 2001). I would also like to know how GW's revenues and profits correlate with the Oil & Gas prices. Perhaps the cycle comes from fluctuations in the oil price (it appears to be that way), but $oil has come back and is near its all time highs now:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38737;image)

The higher the oil price, the higher demand for GW's land drilling services, right?

However, Natural Gas prices have been going down. Which is more important, oil or natural gas?

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38738;image)

Natural gas is the answer, look here in the company's website (http://www.gwdrilling.com/about.htm):

«Approximately 95% of the wells we drill on a daywork and turnkey basis are targeted to natural gas.»

Clearly GW is a business I don't understand very well. I was very attracted by the recent historical revenue growth, the fat net profit margin and a very low P/E Ratio. Also the 1st quarter was quite strong, beating analysts estimates by 17.4%:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38739;image)

I have a lot of conflicting information. I'm in doubt and my hands ... aren't as strong as I would like them to be. Certainly, if the stock goes down another 10% from here I'll be shaking and afraid like a small kid in the dark. I would definitely take the loss if that were to happen.

So I decide to take the loss right away. 4% (0.27% of total equity) isn't all that much to pay for a trading mistake. I'm sure I'll find better/more confident picks.

The trading plan for GW is SELL.

Lesson for the future: Understand the nature of the business better before investing. Don't pursuit just positive fundamental trends and a low valuation. Strong revenue and profit growth coupled with a low valuation may mean the business is cyclical and about to turn south.

In general, avoid cyclical stocks.

David
I think you can sell it for  break even ...   :)
The chart just started to look nice

Quote from: Garoh on July 08, 2007, 08:02:55 AM
David
I think you can sell it for  break even ...   :)
The chart just started to look nice

Maybe. But the price I bought isn't a variable in my hold/sell decision process.

The GW Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.

I will leave you Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread....... 

Good trading to all !   

Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis   

GW's Fundamental Case:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44292;image)

The following is the full report from Credit Suisse Research:

• Higher gas outlook supports re-rating. Owing to the increase in CS's gas price outlook to $8/MMBtu and more signs land rig margins could plateau by mid-2008, we are upgrading GW to Outperform from Neutral. We expect to see rising U.S. drilling activity under our new gas price forecast, setting the stage for pricing improvement in the back half of 2008. While the shares have performed well in 2008 and we have missed some of the positive relative performance, the stock is 11% below recent highs and we believe there is still meaningful upside to the shares given the discounted valuation on replacement cost and cash flow.

• Capacity additions fading. We adopted a bearish outlook on the land drilling sector in January 2006, citing worrisome capacity additions and an oversupplied gas market. Between 2004 and 2007, we estimate the industry added 670 land rigs to the fleet, including 265 rigs in 2007; however, capacity additions are forecasted to decline to less than 80 rigs in 2008 and gas fundamentals have improved. We estimate the return from drilling an average onshore prospect is 32% with $8.00 gas, providing substantial incentive for producers to increase drilling. Meanwhile, recent surges in oil permit activity suggest the oil rigcount could march higher, which would also support higher onshore activity in 2008.

• Our replacement cost work suggests meaningful upside. GW is the cheapest land driller in our coverage group, trading at 4.7X 2009E cash flow and 59% of replacement cost, sizeable discounts to the historical average multiples of 9.0x cash flow and 73% of replacement cost. Based on our EV-to-replacement cost framework, the current valuation represents a good entry
point for the stock, particularly if margins start to improve in the back half of 2008 as we expect.

• Raising target price. We are maintaining our 2008 and 2009 EPS estimates at $0.60/$0.75 versus consensus of $0.55/$0.60, but are raising our 12-month target price to $7.50 from $6.50, which assumes reversion to an average EV/replacement cost valuation of 73% and 6.0x 2009E cash flow. We believe multiple expansion is possible given above average cyclical conditions, rising gas price expectations, and declines in industry capacity additions.

It appears that the most important factor driving GW's shares is changes in capacity. Analysts expect much less additions of rigs in 2008 and this should drive the price of $gas higher. In fact, $NATGAS is bullish:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44293;image)

(the right part of the chart is higher than the left part - this is bullish)

Technical Analysis:

This upgrade produced a long white candle with volume above average which allowed GW to close above $6.6:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44295;image)

The short term technical target of this bullish breakout is $7.39. The analyst's target is $7.5, so I'll say that any bullish move will find some resistance in that area. The target objective is small, but for now is what we have.

In terms of risk, studying the chart tells me that the relevant support for traders is the 200 days SMA. Watch how GW was unable to cross that line in February. Now it is above this moving average. I guess traders would feel disappointed, would stop believing in $7.5, if the stock were to close back below the 200 days SMA, which currently stands at $6.4. They would bail out if this happens.

Trading Plan:

Buy GW today in the $6.55 - $6.65 range. Take profits at $7.39. SELL if the stock is set to close below $6.40.

Count me in  ;)

I'm in also. Are these transactions going to be posted somewhere,or am I not looking in the right place?

I am in also but I am doing better on ASTI today. I got in on ASTI at the pivot and I am up 6.19% right now.  ::) vs .76% on GW :)
My pivot calculator did not give me such rosy picture for GW but I trust David's judgement so hopefully its just taking a little longer to take off.

Hi Guys,

We've bought GW @ $6.60.

About this new Portfolio, its page is still being built, and will be available on the website later today ;)

regards,

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. SELL if the stock is set to close below $6.39.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. SELL if the stock is set to close below $6.38.

There's nothing to think about now, just follow the plan:

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. SELL if the stock is set to close below $6.37.

(the selling level dropped 1 cent because the 200 days SMA is still declining a bit)

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. SELL if the stock is set to close below $6.36.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. SELL if the stock is set to close below $6.35.

I'm going to start using the 50 days SMA as support, instead of the 200 days SMA. This way I'll be able to protect at least part of the profits in the event that GW doesn't reach the $7.39 level for an "optimal" exit.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. SELL if GW is set to close below $6.29.

just checking my pivot calculator this is what it says, what do you think David?

GW was a bit shy of the $7.39 target. Anyway, the drop was on lower volume and $NATGAS had a strong finish yesterday:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44631;image)

$7 was a minor resistance on the way up, it may work as support now.

I still think GW makes at least another leg up to fill my sell order at $7.39.

Anyway, the trading plan protects the Technimental portfolio in case I'm wrong.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. SELL if GW is set to close below $6.31.

Quote from: pinoleropuro on April 08, 2008, 05:38:29 AM
just checking my pivot calculator this is what it says, what do you think David?

I just saw your post pinoleropuro. Why are there two columns with stop profit/stop loss targets? Which one do you use?

Thanks.

not sure why it uses two other than giving exit points for R1 and R2
I like to use R2 cuz it looks more profitable.  ;D

Quote from: pinoleropuro on April 08, 2008, 06:51:03 AM
not sure why it uses two other than giving exit points for R1 and R2
I like to use R2 cuz it looks more profitable.  ;D

Thanks for the info pinoleropuro :)

Your "pivot calculator" is a short term trading tool, looking to capture small and fast profits.

I believe one may improve his win/loss ratio by having some understanding of fundamental analysis, perhaps not in general terms, but knowing the specific fundamental factors which usually move a particular stock.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. SELL if GW is set to close below $6.34.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. Sell if the stock is set to close below $6.36.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. Sell if the stock is set to close below $6.38.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. Sell if the stock is set to close below $6.41.

Highest volume of the year in GW yesterday. Good.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. Sell if the stock is set to close below $6.43.

Trading Plan:

Take profits at $7.39. Sell if the stock is set to close below $6.45.

David, did you take a profit at $7.39? Or are you willing to put a trailing stop or ride the stock further?

Also, I'd like to make suggestion, I don't know about your financial situation, but what could really help you in making the decision is if you could bet your own money on the stocks. I know you're a responsible and honest man, but we're all human and emotions often take over us. If you have your little financial input in the stock, would you let it slip 75%, whatever the reason is? What if you only find out why the stock did that after the fact? In order to get back, the stock would have to grow 230%. Although a tough decision, you could then simply bail out after the stock failed to perform, only to preserve your (and our) capital. Wait out a bit and then decide if it's worth to get back in. I don't mind you changing direction, you cannot know everythin, trial and error is quite alright.

I appreciate your hard work, I hope you guys can improve the quality of your service, I've been a faithful subscriber for 2.5 years now and would love to stay connected.

Berloga.

I got out but the charts and my pivot point calculator still indicate more upard move on it.
check it out! the stochastics on the daily pointed up, CCI also pointing up and it hasn't reached the top of the bollinger bands yet either.
caution though becuase the weekly stochastics looks like its just starting to move down.

QuoteDavid, did you take a profit at $7.39? Or are you willing to put a trailing stop or ride the stock further?

I don't understand the question, tell me berloga, in 2.5 years, have I ever changed a trading plan (or instruction) during market hours?

(I only did that in the Fast Portfolio, but those were the rules of that specific portfolio).

It would be easy to have a stellar performance if I did something like this:

"Well, the stock went up, so I'll say that I've held due to this and that." Or, "this stock went down, so I'll say I was stopped out up there": after the fact! By the way, many of our "competitors" have this type of practices to show better, but fictional, results.

QuoteIf you have your little financial input in the stock, would you let it slip 75%, whatever the reason is?

Yes, I'm dangerous, because I'm a man of convictions.

QuoteAlso, I'd like to make suggestion, I don't know about your financial situation, but what could really help you in making the decision is if you could bet your own money on the stocks. I know you're a responsible and honest man, but we're all human and emotions often take over us.

Bet my own money on the stocks ... ok, being 100% honest, over the past 12 months I made over 1,000% trading futures. Well, I made much more than that, considering my starting capital was $0. I traded for an American costumer and a Portuguese fellow and, after paying a considerable amount in debt that I had (and still have, it's really a monstrous debt, coming from a very bad business I made in the "real economy" a few years ago) I now have my own futures account. I made 60% profit so far in April and what I have is just $16 K.

Do I want to invest in stocks? It's one of my most intense desires ... but I don't have the resources right now (I used to, as I've earned $150 K a couple of times in my life).

I have this goal of understanding stocks. Of developing the best strategy and then applying it for decades. But I'm not there yet. So maybe, I shouldn't be doing this job, since, the truth is I still don't know what I'm doing, I'm just learning like most people (except maybe a handful of individuals).

So, I'm sorry if I'm disappointing you, but I don't have millions of dollars to invest. I don't even have $100 K. Do you think that, if I had millions, I would be here writing about stocks, collecting $50 fees?

Probably I would ... that's my goal, because I like writing about stocks, I think it quickens and improves the learning process. I also learn a lot from your inputs and enjoy your company. Another issue: the days of me walking away when there are problems are over.   

I'm not really worried if some of you unsubscribe because of this post. Being a father of two (with the 3rd coming) I'm more concerned about keeping my principles of honesty and transparency intact.

Maybe I'm not the best guy for doing this job, another one, full of tricks and more "commercial" would probably achieve more success (in terms of this business, more success means more subscribers). But, if you consider that over the past 12 months or so I did nothing to get more subscribers you can see that my interest here isn't getting more subscribers. I would do this job for free, and maybe I will in the future (however, the service will probably always be paid - because there's more to it than myself), because I just want to learn about stocks. It's a passion.

I think that what you get with this service is the opportunity to learn with me. For us to learn together. You're sharing the experience of my successes and mistakes and understand why I make them and that has value. No, did you think you would get to the millions just by following another guy paying $50/month? If you did, I'm sorry to say, but you were living an illusion. I'm sure you weren't, but I'm just trying to make it clear: nobody will make you rich, you have to make it yourself!

GW is still very bullish, but because I had a trading plan which went with the newsletter, obviously that stock was sold at $7.39 on the Technimental Portfolio. I took a 12% profit.

Dave, your confessions are interesting. I do agree with you that this site is about experiencing trading as a group. Any criticism here would be unproductive but I must say that you do make things interesting in an unusual way. Good luck with number 3.

uc.

Hey David, whoof, man, you're a pationate fellow! - :) First off, I did not question your plan for the GW. I forgot that the transaction would only show up the next day. My only doubt was that GW was still bullish, so was waiting for any recommendation from you. I am also selling now. Discipline is importants.

As for the service, my purpose of joining in was to learn, but also for inspiration. I also have 2 small children (no 3rd coming though), lots of things to do with the family, so the question whether I make a lot of money here or not does not really arise. I am here mostly for a sport interest, of course wishing to learn to win.

Stock trading is fun, it has to do with human psychology, financial knowledge and temperament. It teaches self-control, logic and patience. I know you wouldn't run the service for $50 if you had millions.... knowing you, you'd perhaps do it for free?  :) Frankly, I'd rather pay the $50 to you with no promise, than to somebody else with a big promise.

No, you don't disappoint me. I know you're the man of principles, but I admire when people are willing to alter their principles as they grow. You shows these signs, and I respect you for that.

Lastly, I wish you to earn a lot more on futures, pay off your debt and begin investing in stocks just like you desire.  ;)

Sua conversa das acções para se; prossiga o grande trabalho!

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Tags: Treatment, Birth Control, Symptoms, Mental Disorders, Health Search, Medicines and health tips, Helpful Tips

curl,  ???
Show me a chart on this ticker symbol.
The only GW I know of was  Grey Wolf, Inc.  ???
and I do think they bit the dust?  ???