Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. (SSTI). The Group's principal activity is to supply flash memory semiconductor devices. The Group offers these products to digital consumer, networking, wireless communications and Internet computing markets. The Group operates through four segments: Standard memory product group, Application specific product group, Special product group and Technology licensing. The major customers of the Group include Apple, Dell, Intel, LG Electronics, Motorola, Panasonic, Samsung, Sanyo, Siemens, Sony and others. The Group operates in the United States, Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and other Asian countries.
The stock just crossed an analyst's price target:
«Silicon Storage popped 62 cents, or 18%, to close at $4.13 after analyst Daniel Amir raised his rating on the shares to buy from sell while setting a $5 price target for the stock.»
SSTI closed today at $5.14. It is a bullish factor that the stock is trading higher than a bullish price target set by an analyst, perhaps many people sold at the price target area and now they see the stock climb further and must jump back in, creating further advances in the price. Reading the motives behind the analyst call I believe he was too conservative on the price target: Silicon Storage spikes on upgrade - Apple deal among catalysts seen by WR Hambrecht (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B7610CBA1%2DC303%2D4DB7%2DB65E%2DC9377595EC4D%7D&garden=&minisite=)
Results will be out tomorrow after the close. Guidance from the company isn't great:
«Second Quarter 2005 Outlook
SST expects its second quarter unit shipments to increase slightly from the first quarter. In addition, the company expects average selling prices to decline by four to six percent. Licensing revenue is expected to be down slightly from the prior quarter. Therefore, SST expects its second quarter revenues to be between $80 million and $90 million, assuming no drastic changes occur in the U.S. and international economies. Gross margin is expected to be between 11 and 15 percent, which takes into consideration the risks associated with market condition changes. Research and development spending is expected to be approximately 10 percent higher than the prior quarter. In addition, the company expects a $4 to $5 million charge as a result of the Actrans acquisition. With these revenue and expense levels, SST expects net loss per share to be between $0.20 and $0.28 in the second quarter.»
Yet the stock keeps rising prior to results and the trend has turned bullish again:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2776;image)
I guess this baby will pop on earnings. Expectations are low so there's only one way if we get some of a positive surprise, and that is way up !
I've decided to buy SSTI for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio at today's open.
3 Stocks on Fire Community take on SSTI (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=search2&search=SSTI)
This analysis is part of Top 5 Stocks for Tuesday (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1821.0), conducted by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire. David Randolph is managing a public and diversified portfolio which is up 144% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php).
www.3stocksonfire.org is a traders and investors new Community growing everyday, with 2350 registered users in just about 2 months. We exchange great trading strategies and stock picks everyday on our boards. If you want to join our Community and receive a free newsletter, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
Earnings appear to have been leaked a little early, if a post on the yahoo board is correct. Opportunity to evaluate before the bell. Looks good, but stock appears to be stagnant at this point. Good luck to all.
Looks like alot of the guys do not like the earnings on this. I got in. With the time difference being over here, i guess they are conducting the earnings call now. Should be interesting
Is yahoo the reason why the recent jump then?
Earnings on on their web site. I got in this morning at 5.20, about where it seems to want to stay right now. Forcasted loss in q3 for .11 to .15 cents, which is from what I can tell in this short period a big improvemnet. Most don't seem overly impressed at this early stage, although its rising with every letter I type.
David, what are your positions on this one? At 330 pm back in the states this thing is shooting up and down.
The age old question. Buy or Sell? ;D
Crashing on earnings news.
David,
Since #'s came out before the bell, curious what you think you would have done with the information had you been inclined to be in a decision making mood. I chose to stay, clearly at this point the wrong choice. Had many opportunities to sell between 5.10-5.40.
From a traders point of view, would you have liked the numbers well enough to take a wait and see approach, which is what I did.
I will give you 4 experiences in the last 3-5 months that lead me to think holding on earnings rumors is really stupid, even though you can land the motherload on occasion.
1) INCX met their own guidance numbers, missed analyst #'s, and added to R and D, resulting is crappy guidance. Stock absolutely tanked as fast as any in recent memory AH and the next day.
2) SYNA- absolutely blew the ceiling off on earnings, but whispered IPOD sales might be slowing and it got destroyed.
3) GIGM- you know the story there.
4) Now SSTI.
Anybody with any warm and fuzzy hold into earnings stories please post so that I can be assured that at least on occasion stocks do go up after an earnings report. ;D
I bought SNDK @23.6 on stocky recommendation and kept half through ER. I was handsomely rewarded. SNDK was up 12% after earning and is still going strong @33.38.
So I dont see any sells here, but I assume this is what you guys are doing. right?
Why no comments before openning bell?
Easy usedcasting, I'm running against time here, but there's always an update before the opening bell ;)
SSTI's results were better than expected. Read my initial analysis:
«SST expects its second quarter revenues to be between $80 million and $90 million» - «Net revenues for the second quarter were $93.3 million»
«SST expects net loss per share to be between $0.20 and $0.28 in the second quarter» - «Net loss for the second quarter of 2005 was $19.6 million, or a loss of $0.19 per share»
But of course, when you get a title like this on the news: «Silicon Storage Tech swings to quarterly loss» and with this content «Silicon Storgae Technology Inc. (SSTI) on Tuesday reported a net loss of $19.6 million, or 19 cents a share, vs. net earnings of $22.1 million, or 22 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Revenue was $93.3 million, compared with $128.5 million last year. The company forecast a third-quarter net loss in the range of 11 cents to 15 cents a share, on revenue of $103 million to $113 million.», and some people with good profits on their hands, they sell first and think later.
The leak in results before the bell probably caused the sell off too.
Anyway, results were above expectations and the future seems bright. I'll hold the stock as long as it maintains its uptrend. The uptrend line today will stand at $4.60, so I'm giving the stock a lot of space to maneuver.
David, sorry about the tone of my post, no excuse, I got nervious, won't let it happen again.
due to no advise last night, and to allow me to sleep I put a .07 trail stop so that if it just dropped today, i would make out alright, but it looks like it came back and im still on for the ride. GL
My green bull on STTI's chart is smiling ... Earnings were good, but there was some misinterpretation based on year over year comparisons.
Fundamentally I believe this company will come back to where it was before in a year or two. No reason for the stock price not to do the same.
The green lines show the trend, and that certainly is up. Holding SSTI.
SSTI is going down a bit from profit taking related to the earnings report, but the trend remains bullish. I will hold this stock as long as it closes within the standard deviation channel on the chart.
SSTI is still suffering from profit taking after the earnings release on July 26th. My plan is to give some room to this stock, since fundamentally it looks like the stock has everything to come back to the old highs, around $14 a share.
$4.70 is acting like a minor support, lets see if it holds during this session, I will keep the stock anyway.
Still profit taking (or loss taking?) on SSTI, but nothing that damages the medium term bullish trend. Volume picked up a bit yesterday, that might be telling the lower prices are attracting new buyers into the stock.
I will continue to hold SSTI.
I sold my shares at 4.95 after it failed to run 2 days after ER was released for a .05 loss.
I'm watching it top see if the uptrend continues. Might get back in, might not. If it was going to run big it would have done so after ER was out. just my opinion.
looks good today,
based on my swing chart i have an entry of 4.87 which is 25% of the range on the way to a high of 5.59. looks ready to cross the 200 ma. currently about to hit my buy .
time to switch off the screen.......
thanks ,
maxi
david, i agree with your opinion, so i am in this stock. also, i like the fundermentals of this company. thank you!
I am also in at 4.90 - Solid looking company.
This is my first post here, found your board by way of the DESC yahoo board.
In addition to SSTI & DESC I also own COGT, DSTI, EBAY, STX, CKP, MSFT & DVW (Formerly COVD).
I have recently sold out of postions on STEM, ASTM, MXO & EMC
Thanks for your posts, you're welcome :)
Bull trends have this "problem", many times the rallies come out of nothing. No significant support was reached, no warning on the candlestick front ... perhaps the only pre signal came out of volume, you see, price was going down but volume was growing, and that's a positive technical divergence.
Anyway, SSTI was up more than 4% yesterday, I'll continue to hold the stock.
Some news on SSTI today, the company is delivering a new product: SST Communications Delivers New Dual-Band WLAN Power Amplifier With Industry Leading Linear Output Power (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=15722&guid=%7BA838B0CB%2DE6FC%2D4390%2DAB61%2D318670E49681%7D&symb=)
The trend is still up, I'll hold SSTI.
(some technical problems on 3 Stocks on Fire, I must hurry up with the updates now)
What the heck happened yesterday. Ouch!
Quote from: usedcasting on August 05, 2005, 07:46:48 AM
What the heck happened yesterday. Ouch!
An ugly sell off yesterday on SSTI. Today the stock is up a bit and the trend remains bullish. I'll continue to hold SSTI.
Hi, everybody, I just joined the group. Hope to learn from all of you.
I have my own fund called "shaw Fund" and it has an annualized gain of 77% since June 2001 (real money). I felt that I am not a good investor,
I tried very hard, intend to get at least 100% return yearly but couldn't achieve it.
Here I found the group which want to make big run, much bigger than what I dreamed of. I just want learn from all of you how to do it.
My trading style is "buy low and sell high" and hold for long term gain.
I am not a momentm trader but want to learn some here.
I followed semi sector closely sine 2001.
This year, I bought SSTI at $2.55 and sold most of it at $5.10 exactly for a 100% gain.
The semi run is over for short term. It will take a rest as many semi stocks
have gained 100% since the end of April and have become either overvalued or fairvalued.
For SSTI, I DON'T THINK IT WILL BACK TO YEAR LOW.
The reason: fundamentally it has improved a lot since last December such as inventory reduction, Grace investment, expended their product portfolio, etc. It may pull-back to $3.5-$4.00 level before another run starts. It may be a $10 stock next year (another 100%+ return).
I do still have small position at SSTI (few K shares) and will not sell it no matter how low it may go. This way I can keep an eye on it and take a much bigger position later (may be 20K-30K). Or if my prediction is wrong, I can still ride the up trend for small profit.
Happy trading everyone.
Thanks for your post shawFund, you're welcome :D
About SSTI, the stock made a tiny candle on Friday, which shows indecision from short term traders. There's no clue for the next move from Friday's candlestick analysis.
I will hang on to what I got, which is an uptrend. Trends usually continue and my strategy is based on that.
I've drawn a Raff Regression Channel from the lows set in early May and I will hold SSTI as it continues to trade inside that ascending channel.
I see some of my stocks breaking down today and I'm analyzing and saying I'll hold every one of them. This isn't prudent. I have to let go of some to keep me awake and always alert to the possibility of big losses.
RULE 13: Take big profits and small losses
Of course, if I prolong the standard deviation channel for yesterday's session, there was no break down, it would never be because of the way the standard deviation channel is calculated. Of course I won't enter that kind of rationalization, the one we sometimes do because of fundamentals is enough, we don't need the charts misleading too.
So I'll take my loss today on SSTI at the open.
Hey David, is this one back in the game possibly. I bought and held. Just looking for some advice.
Thanks very much.
I also like to know the opinions from Dav or others about SSTI.
As I said in my previous post that I intended to add position in $3.50-$4.00 area, but it only pulled back to a low of $4.09 then went up 25% to a high of $5.09 yesterday.
Missed th run.
No news at all. May be short squeeze or some insider information?
SSTI is back!!
Fundamental:
1. SEMI sector very strong
2. NOR chip price firming up, actually gained 20% recently
3. NOR memory chip is in short supply
4. iPod NANO uses its two chips
5. It diversified its products portfolio
Technical:
See the chart below - breakaway gap last Thusday. Ascending trendline.
It's being heavily pumped by paid (they acknowledge being paid in their small print disclaimer)
advertisers. This may not reflect on the quality of the company but it always makes me skeptical.
Prfsr hal
SSTI is not pumped. Its business is improving.
NOR memory price increased 10-15% in 3rd quarter and today's news from digitimes.com that its price will increase another 20% begining from next month.
The inventory problem now no longer exists.
Also, its flash controller is used in AAPL iPod NANO
See the chart it is rebounced at exactly on ascending line
Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) Pattern.....Possible Breakout !
Volume back up, very nice last 2 days.
Support @ $5.09...4.84...4.72
Resistance @ $5.48...5.67
MACD is bullish
Stochastic is bearish
Technicals
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
10.44%above 13-day EMA
12.88%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 90
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $517.40
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: -0.784211
Next Earnings: 01/25/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout.
Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts.
Prices sometimes return to the breakout point of apex on a reaction move before resuming in the direction of the breakout. This return can offer a second chance to participate with a better reward to risk ratio. Potential reward price targets found by measurement and parallel trend line extension are only meant to act as rough guidelines. Technical analysis is dynamic and ongoing assessment is required.
A rebuttal...
(http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/8529/051115ssti39br.jpg)
OK, not really a rebuttal...but I would wait to see a breakout above 6 with a bigger increase in volume.
Cheers,
Richard
(SSTI).......
ANNOUNCES JOINT DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGY: SST (SSTI), a leader in flash memory
technology, and Insyde Software Corp., a leading provider of UEFI-based firmware, BIOS
and engineering services, announced the joint development of FlashMate technology, enabling
new usage models to notebook PC consumers that will revolutionize their portable computing
experience. FlashMate technology provides benefits beyond that of a hybrid-drive by giving users
the ability to instantly access the content on the hard disk drive without having to power on
the notebook for listening to MP3 files, viewing digital pictures, accessing email and more.