Adaptec, Inc.(ADPT). The Group's principal activities are to design, manufacture and market storage access solutions that move, manage and protect critical data and digital content.
The long term chart looks like this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=303;image)
We have that pattern that I love. Bag holders sold when it broke the 2002 low so the stock is now clean to advance.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=304;image)
I'm buying this at the open but today I'll be more concerned about selling. I'm going to sell some of my holdings.
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Have a nice day !
Interesting Pick,,What would be your timeframe of holding your postion?This is really an excellent site and I look foward to visiting it every day,,sincerely :)
... on ADPT. My holding timeframe normally goes from 1 to a maximum of 15 days, but I try not to hold stocks more than 5 business days. I do this because I believe a good trade is profitable right from the start and I want to search and buy 3 new stocks everyday (since I have a limit of 15 different holdings I have to keep selling stocks to buy new ones ... I don't get in love with stock stories or fundamentals.
Concerning ADPT maybe, and learning a bit with aussietrader, maybe I'll sell at the 50 day simple moving average, in red at the chart below.
Thanks for your complement on 3 Stocks on Fire !
Answering to a post yesterday I said I would probably sell ADPT if it touched it's 50 day sma. It did, at $4.07, but I wasn't looking - so I sold now, a bit away from that level.
About 8% profit in two days. The stock needed a rebound, I needed a profit. Nice marriage. Now the rebound has already happen, I don't know what will happen next and I'm no curious to it.
Nice trade Randolph ;)
And this is a peculiar difficult stock to trade.
thanks ;)
... maybe I sold too soon, but from the chart below I still conclude this is a rebound in a downtrend and ADPT needs a more solid base to truly invert the bearish trend.
ADPT is a volume story. Price down and volume up is a bullish divergence. I believe it is appropriate to say, as in the past, that ADPT is in need of a rebound.
ADPT is the buy back stock #3 for today.
After the close I'll make a more profound update, but now I haven't time for more. Basically 3 stocks that I've sold but maintained on watch list have reached support and are ready to be bought again.
(This recommendation was made by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire. 3 Stocks on Fire is a Community of stock traders and investors. Our 2851 members change trading ideas and strategies on our message boards everyday. We welcome you as a new member of the 3 Stocks on Fire Community, please take 10 seconds to register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register) and receive our free newsletter)
Price down and volume could also mean that a lot of traders were anxious to sell the stock and drove the price down, couldn't it?
Rephrase the question a little:
Price down and volume UP could also mean that a lot of traders were anxious to sell the stock and drove the price down, couldn't it?
Quote from: cmshop on August 18, 2005, 01:13:54 PM
Rephrase the question a little:
Price down and volume UP could also mean that a lot of traders were anxious to sell the stock and drove the price down, couldn't it?
Good question cmshop :)
They did drive the price down, but that selling was met by buying interest, that's why we get so much volume. It could be bargain hunting, bottom fishing, value investors, whatever, what's true is that heavy selling was met by heavy buying and that's a bullish factor: the lower prices attracted new buyers into the stock.
A bearish stock falls because of lack of interest, that's why it continues falling until the price is so cheap that it becomes interesting. Then buyers come in and you get volume. ADPT is on this phase now, I believe.
This is going to be a fast trade, I'll sell at the first resistance, $3.7, for a quick 11% profit. Not considering the downside at this moment, big volume shows strong support just beneath current levels.
QuoteThis is going to be a fast trade, I'll sell at the first resistance, $3.7, for a quick 11% profit. Not considering the downside at this moment, big volume shows strong support just beneath current levels.
There's no motive to change anything to the previous analysis or trading plan. I'll try to sell at the $3.7 resistance level for a 11% short term profit. If this scenario plays out then I will evaluate the stock again and possibly come back in with another trading plan.
Now I have a target to sell and a stop level for this trade on ADPT:
1) Sell at $3.70 for a 11% profit.
2) Sell if the stock closes again below $3.35 for a small profit or small loss.
David, does "Price down and volume UP" always mean positive divergency? If not always hold true, then based on your experience under what circumstance it would be positve divergency , and under what circumstance it would be NOT?
Can you share your experience on this?
Quote from: cmshop on August 23, 2005, 08:20:54 PM
David, does "Price down and volume UP" always mean positive divergency? If not always hold true, then based on your experience under what circumstance it would be positive divergency , and under what circumstance it would be NOT?
Can you share your experience on this?
Good question cmshop, I really like volume analysis. In fact I have some scripts about it that I should share, some 12 situations when volume is a valuable indicator for future prices. Perhaps on the weekend I'll post something about it on the «Knowledge Center (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=collapse;c=5;sa=collapse;#5)»
Considering your questions, let's go by parts:
1) «David, does "Price down and volume UP" always mean positive divergency?»
No, not always.
2) «If not always hold true, then based on your experience under what circumstance it would be positive divergency , and under what circumstance it would be NOT?»
It's generally considered a positive divergence, but there is one exception and some pre-conditions must be met. The exception is after a big bullish trend, the stock trades sideways for a while and then it breaks an ascending trendline or somekind of support with strong volume. That's very bearish. If prices are near the top and start going down with volume above average probably the trend is really shifting, from bullish to bearish.
The pre-condition is that volume analysis must be made in connection with other technical analysis. That is, you shouldn't buy a falling knife, period. Regardless of volume analysis. You need to have an accumulation phase, with the stock trading sideways, before buying ... at least a white candle is needed.
I'm sure you've seen many stocks going down in freefall with strong volume, that's because everyone wants to sell fast before the stocks gets delisted or something.
So, price down and volume up is generally a bullish divergence, but one needs to check if other factors agree, like a support was reached, there was an accumulation phase, the stock isn't coming down from a top, etc.
Now, taking ADPT as an example (it is a perfect one), the stock isn't near a top, in fact it's near all time lows. It's not on a free fall, check the accumulation phase on the chart. Volume was above average on the accumulation phase, after a down trend.
Yesterday the stock came down on very low volume, I don't take any indication out of this small range day. I'll stick to the plan, which is:
Quote1) Sell at $3.70 for a 11% profit.
2) Sell if the stock closes again below $3.35 for a small profit or small loss.
ADPT had it's rebound, but it wasn't enough for me to get out with a profit. Anyway, the stock closed below my stop level, which was $3.35, so there's no doubt I need to sell ADPT right away, at the opening of the market (usually I don't act on the pre-market, because spreads are much bigger and slippage costs are higher over the long run).
David, on August 11 when you decided to jump back to BCON, one of the reasons was "- This deep move was made with decreasing volume...".
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1994.msg15442#msg15442
Why "decreasing volume" became a positive factor for postive divergency here? Should "decreasing volume" mean lack of interests and therefore bearish? Or should it mean that not many people wanted to sell in this case? It is kind of confusing when you make a statement that "price down and volume up" generally means positive divergency and then when we apply this statement to different cases.
This title comes up because I once owned ADPT thinking it would rebound:
ADPT is in need of a rebound (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=195.0)
The stock did rebound but as I recall I didn't make any profit from it. It is always hard to pick up a bottom and stay with the position. It is much better and easy to buy when there is a new bullish trend like it is happening now with ADPT, as you can see on the short term chart below.
Also, the fundamentals seem to have turned the corner:
Adaptec Provides Preliminary Operating Results for Second Quarter FY 2006 - Strength in Core Business Improves Revenue and Gross Margin (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=360&guid=%7BFCB7A490%2DA938%2D4DE2%2DA0F5%2DE1E267BE001C%7D&symb=)
I'll buy ADPT at today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Bought ADPT @ $3.96 for the 3Stocks Portfolio.
ADPT is a turnaround play. As you can check on the all history chart below, the stock is near its all time lows set in the early nineties.
On Thursday the company said results are going to beat expectations:
- Revenue for the quarter ended in September 30th is going to be $115M instead of the $106M that were previously expected.
- Gross margin is now expected to come in at 32 to 34%, instead of 27 to 28%.
Costs are going to be lower than expected too:
- «Non-GAAP operating expenses for the Company's combined operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 are expected to be in the range of $39 to $41 million compared with projected non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $43 to $44 million.»
And this leaves us with earnings per share coming in higher than expected:
«Non-GAAP loss per share for the Company's combined operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 is expected to be in the range of ($0.01) to ($0.03), compared with projected non-GAAP loss per share of between ($0.12) and ($0.13).»
The company is divesting from some businesses that were not producing enough revenues and profits, which seems to be a good move. Official results will be presented on November 3, 2005.
Technically ADPT is breaking out and starting a new bullish trend. I will continue holding the stock for the foreseeable future.
ADPT had a minor correction intraday but then it came back to close near the highs of the session. I see this as a short term positive. There are no motives to sell now, I'll continue holding ADPT.
Results will be presented at November the 3rd.
ADPT: HOLD
We've had a sell off yesterday on ADPT, in tandem with the general market. There was no technical damage and no new fundamental developments. Therefore I'll continue holding ADPT.
There was nothing new on ADPT, I'll continue to hold. Earnings will be out on Thursday.
Again, nothing new on ADPT, everybody seems to be waiting for that conference call on Thursday, that I think will bring good news to the PPS.
I'll continue holding ADPT.
Everybody is waiting and sleeping on ADPT. The conference call will be on Thursday. We already know earnings are going to be higher than estimates, what we want to hear from the company is guidance about the future.
ADPT is a turnaround play and I believe management will say good things about the future.
I'll continue sleeping with ADPT.
ADPT will talk today: «MILPITAS, CA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 10/27/05 -- Adaptec, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADPT), a leader in trusted storage solutions, will host a live teleconference and webcast November 3, 2005, at 1:45 p.m. Pacific Time to discuss the company's financial results for the second quarter 2006.»
I think the stock will react positively to this. I will hold it through today's session, but I'll put a stop loss at my entry point, I don't want to let a profit turn into a loss because of some unexpected event.
So, HOLD ADPT, but with a stop order placed at $3.96.
Oh well, I was stopped out on ADPT for a draw at $3.96. It looks like the news coming out of the conference call were not inspiring for investors.
More money available for better stocks.
hi, is anyone still in? i am, and it did well since david sold. i will hold. we shall see
Yeah, I'm in as well, with 13% gains (5% just today).
A lot of this is takeover speculation, so it's very likely to deflate...but takeover hopes don't always peter out quickly.
Longer term, I think the company has bright prospects, but I'm not likely to hold that long. Might have sold at today's high (4.73) if I'd been watching the tape.
As you say, we'll see.
Sold today @ 4.48
hello, am i the only one still in this? today was another positive session. a mention in barrons over the weekend as a long term winner didn't hurt. as always, we shall see. soxguy
Sold today @ $ 4,70. Needed the cash for some other plays. Otherwise I would not have sold because it was stil above my TL . 17% profit is not bad though ;).
Good luck to those holding.
Amarens
Has anyone been watching ADPT lately?
In need of a rebound it was, but David was right on the money on this one when he said it was a bullish new trend - that was at the end of October and ADPT has gone up over 50% from then :o
After a bit of in range consolidation, it has broken out to new highs in the last week or so - and no-one seems to have noticed (not even me and it sits on my stock monitor every day ::)
I think this could be a good play here Last trade was at 6.63, and made a 52 week high today, having broken through key resistance at 6.00 and now filled an old gap from the beginning of 2005. The 2 year chart suggests it may be getting into trickier stuff now, with a descending trendline coming into play, as well as resistance at around 6.60, 7.30, 8.00, and then 8.50, but if it pushes through here, it should have more steam in the tank.
I would be looking for it to continue its upward move, with a logical stop set at 6.25, the top of the recent channel. that would be almost a 6% risk, but ADPT looks set to continue its move on strength.
What do you guys think?
its time to get in again!