3SOF

Any idea?

Can you give me the link? I dont think so.. There has been news about IPO but no ticker or laucnh has been announced....

not sure how accurate this is -
http://www.chinastockblog.com/2005/03/baiducom_from_t.html

http://www.ipohome.com/common/ipoprofile.asp?ticker=BIDU better info

E-Trade shows that BIDU's trade date is 08/05.

WOW!

Took  off....opened at 66$ now at 96$

Is there more...nice pick
where do u see it going?

thanks julia

Did you buy it , julia?

Moved up $40 in one hour. Who can beat this kind of move?  ???

BIDU what did you do?  you are on SUPERFIRE!!!!! DAMN!! $140

Truly amazing.  I've never seen anything like this.  I figured once it broke $100 it would take off but not like that.  I bought a little at $111 and sold it at $143 about 15 minutes later.   If this really is the Chinese Google than who knows where it will go.  I saw a press release that the CEO denied that google wanted to buy them before the IPO.  Interesting.

"once it broke $100 it would take off but not like that." What do u mean?

I meant to say that once it broke $100 I thought it would take off.  The way this thing is moving today and figuring that $100 would be a psychological barrier that once broken people would feel they needed to jump in.   

Wild swings on this one. 

What are you predictions for next week ?

I think it might test $175

why $175 ? what kind of formular you use?

-Compare it to last years Google IPO

-Google might take it over

-Profitable, 0 DEBT, $23 billion in cash !

-Strong growth in the highest growth country in the world, CHINA

What you guys think ?

I dont like it!  Get out now!  This thing will drop like a rock!

The current price suggests a market capitalization of more than $3 billion, which is way too high, said Darren Chervitz, director of research at Jacob Asset Management in New York. Revenue is just $30 million.

The stock has plenty of risks. A fifth of its traffic comes from users downloading illegal MP3 files. The Chinese government has shut it down for violating censorship rules.

bought 1000  shares at 125 sold at 132. Thinking to getback  in again after hour. I think 175 sounds right on monday.

Thanks

F

HIGHERSTOCKS, i heard today the CEO Robin Li, say that Baidu does not involve DOWNLOADING files !

" said Darren Chervitz, director of research at Jacob Asset Management in New York. Revenue is just $30 million." Higherstocks, where did you find this? can you provide a link?
BIDU may be overvalued. But it provides opportunity for traders/speculators, not investors.

HIGHERSTOCKS is the member on this board who said that Baidu allowd MP3 download which are illegal.

I was listening at 4:20 pm todya on CNBC when BAIDU's CEO Robin Li was speaking and he said, Baidu is a search engine and is not a downloading website which only 10% of Chinese people use, which means greater growth potential.

Heres the link:  I am not in the stock just trying to warn.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Articles/Dispatches/P125226.asp

Hi cmshop,

no, i did not buy...just too expensive for me...although i was completerly mesmerized by the level 2 action going on...wild!

Good eye though on finding it and posting it before the action started!

Congratulations on a very exciting and energetic pick..I hope u were able to pick some up  though.

Applause!

have a great weekend...dying to see what happens on Monday. ;D

thanks very much,

julia

Monday it will fall like a rock watch out im telling you.  Just talking from experience on hyped up ipo's.  This thing will fall back to opening price and fall below by the next couple weeks.

Higher says gonna go lower.  ;D usually thats the case where goes the masses of to lose their glasses  8) . Higher i might short this guy, will do a little more research this weekend, but where the heck to come up with the cash to buy back,, ummm >:D

If you think it should fall like a rock, you should short it.

BIDU is an IPO, you cannot short IPO's for up to 30 days.

awwwwwwww shoot really? Shows how much i know.  :-X :-X :-X not a word from annya. I will watch though, that might keep the stock up for a while, seems like the new internet sector is keeping on to their gains, who would think google would rule .

I am sure everyone has seen the much publicized IPO of this stock, it's metoric rise, and now, day by day, return to earth.

What will interesting to watch for is a true bottom or basing for this stock.  I expect it will be wild ride, and very speculative, even going forward (such as GOOG), but for the not so faint of heart, it may prove a nice play at some point.

For now, a watch list item for me.

Will it rally this week sometime (today?) after pullback last week?

May have found a bottom in the $71-75 range, and now starting back up:

Early friday am (3 am here, 6 am on Wall Street) I was perusing news reports and came across this:

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=2&art_id=1457&sid=4582527&con_type=1

Baidu sued over music downloads

The world's biggest music companies are suing Baidu, the mainland search engine that captivated Wall Street investors, for copyright infringement in a move that could force the company to shut down its MP3 search engine, a key to the company's popularity among young Chinese Internet users.


Went to the Yahoo message board and found lots of chatter about "loading up for the big rally" and "short squeeze coming!" No awareness of the mp3 problem.

So naturally I loaded up on the short side, had a very nice green day.

I understand short shares are hard to borrow right now, so I held over the weekend.

Here's the chart, any votes on what I should do Monday AM?

Nobody's stepping up, so I'll have to make my own plan!

To tell you the truth, even a profitable short makes me nervous as hell. But BIDU seems ready to break significantly lower.

IF I find it up in premarket I will cover at least half my position at open.

The remainder will be held while I watch the tape, finger on the trigger.

If it rallies sufficiently to indicate my remaining shares are about to go into the red, I will cover. If by close Monday it hasn't broken the support line, I will also cover.

I do expect an attempted rally in the AM: "amateurs set the opening price, professionals set the close."

BIDU bulls and bears continue to fight it out. I've found the stength of the rallies unconvincing, and the fundamental argument against BIDU compelling.

Alexa, a company that monitors web traffic, is currently showing a 36% decline in Baidu's traffic:

http://www.alexa.com/site/ds/movers_shakers?lang=zh_gb2312

Many explanations have been deployed for this precipitous drop. Most BIDU longs believe that Alexa is mistaken.

I believe it is the direct result of the Chinese government's anti-porn crusade. Baidu's database has a 40,000-count list of banned keywords!

http://www.venturetdf.com/china/baidu_aug9.php

As you've read in the news, Baidu has been ordered to remove mp3 links from their database. This should reduce traffic at least another 10%.

Wuth traffic reduced by 50%, Baidu's business model -- selling ads for its high-traffic web portal -- is now severely crippled.

But the market efficiency isn't there!

Baidu longs still pay ridiculous prices for the few shares in the float.

This supply-and-demand situation will change as the supply bloats (this occurs after the 180-day lockup tied to the 8/5 IPO has expired).

But I am betting that the demand will peter out before that.

Here's a daily chart (complete history) and a five-day, one-minute chart.

Does today's doji mean a turning point????

Another day, another firm initiates coverage. This time it's Credit Suisse First Boston, and (like underwriters Goldman Sachs and Piper Jaffrey), it's "underperform."

But the BIDU longs are taking it in stride, pointing to murmurs in the Chinese press that Google will buy Baidu. (I seriously doubt that, but one never knows...)

Intraday, it's lost $2 at most, only down 30 cents at this moment. However, market close usually brings a large daytrader dump. If that doesn't happen, I get out, and possibly go long -- as you can see in the intraday chart, mornings are rally-time for the hopeful.

Closed only twenty cents down! Amazing.

Got out with my skin intact. short basis was 82, covered at 80.14.

Considering that this was a high risk investment that tied up $8,000 of my limited capital for nearly a week, I'm not crazy about the gains. I will be keeping watch on BIDU, though; the stubborn longs can't deny reality forever.

I especially would like to be short before next earnings, or as soon as the media picks up Alexa's report of reduced traffic at baidu.com. Also, if Google outlines their China policy, or the expenditure of its recently-raised cash, without mention of baidu, it is time to ride BIDU down to 45 or 50.

I expect BIDU to rally pretty strongly tomorrow, maybe 3 to 5 points or even more. Still, I decided not to go long, preferring to invest in some "gulf plays" mentioned in another thread.

Another stock that looks very good right now is former 3SOF pick DESC:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1833.msg22421#msg22421

A very weak opening on Friday seduced me back into my short position on BIDU. The five-day chart below (60-minute periods) shows the bulls are losing definitively.

The remote possibility that GOOG or Rupert Murdoch will step in to buy baidu remains a scary thought, though, so I don't have as large a position this time.

BIDU has retreated to its last remaining support level. If 72 definitively breaks, there's only hope and spit to hold it up for longs.

Here's the 5-day:

Good work on bidu robt. I would have shorted that baby if i had enough money to tie up. The initial ipo was crazy then it droped. Hope not to many here went long.

Quote from: agatto2 on September 28, 2005, 06:05:41 AM
Good work on bidu robt. I would have shorted that baby if i had enough money to tie up. The initial ipo was crazy then it droped. Hope not to many here went long.

I agree.  Applause to robt, and applause to higherstocks, who nailed this one back on August 5.

Quote from: higherstocks on August 05, 2005, 05:09:22 PM
I dont like it!  Get out now!  This thing will drop like a rock!

The current price suggests a market capitalization of more than $3 billion, which is way too high, said Darren Chervitz, director of research at Jacob Asset Management in New York. Revenue is just $30 million.

The stock has plenty of risks. A fifth of its traffic comes from users downloading illegal MP3 files. The Chinese government has shut it down for violating censorship rules.

It's in free fall. last support at 72 broken just minutes after the open. It looks like this will be a profitable play for some time to come. (Famous Last Words? I hope not!)

Quote from: agatto2 on September 28, 2005, 06:05:41 AM
Good work on bidu robt. I would have shorted that baby if i had enough money to tie up. The initial ipo was crazy then it droped. Hope not to many here went long.

It's getting cheaper every hour, and still plenty of downside. I was surprised that Ameritrade had more shares available, so I added today, now have about  3400 worth (but that figure keeps going down  ;D)

Closed at 65.71, and down further in AH.

Today was the MOST FUN I've ever had in the market and, not coincidentally, the most profitable.

For much of this morning, it looked like a green day for BIDU. No stock goes straight down, though. My long positions in KFX, DESC and HQSM all had strong pops intraday, and luckily I recently overloaded ALL THREE! I was able to take profits on this "trifecta," and still hold my original positions -- meaning total portfolio growth of 5% in a single day! Yowie!

So I was prepared to take a one-day hit from BIDU, with no pain.

As you can see in the chart at bottom, a "three identical crows" formation developed over the last three days. The fact that each candlstick is longer only adds power to this formation.

"This pattern resembles a panic selling that should cause additional downside action. Each day's close sets a benchmark for opening prices the next trading day. There is a total absence of buying power in this pattern."

Some say no confirmation is needed with this one, others say another lower close confirms.

Ever hopeful longs joined three different rallies intraday (top chart). I took the opportunity to increase my short holdings to $4000.

The downtrend narrowly won the close 71 cents to the downside. As soon as AH began, BIDU gave up another 70 cents, so it's 1.40 down as I write. Another nice profit, though coming very late in the day -- and in addition to the 5% gain mentioned above!!

BIDU is now a much more affordable short. For someone entering now, it may seem much more risky than it was at 80 or 100...but I believe there is more downside to come. Other short disagree and are exiting -- that means opportunity for those willing to add to or create a short position! I will stick with it, possibly adding more, while keeping a careful eye on the tape.

Bottom fishers showed up today, and every penny in BIDU's progress downward became a fight of tooth and nail. Still it added another negative point by close.

There is yet more downside. In fact, Monday seems likely to bring a new round of panic selling thanks to news about Google:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/01/technology/01google.html

Google intends to become an ISP, offering free or low-cost broadband to all of San Francisco. This explains where their recently-raised funds are actually intended to go.

Nobody thought GOOG just raised the money for the hell of it. This is TERRIBLE news for the BIDU long whose hopes were pinned to a GOOG buyout.

This news should be good for a few points Mondy, and momentum may take it well down from there.

BIDU bulls took the day. Stock shot up about two points following the opening, then traded sideways for the rest of the day.

One factor encouraging the bulls: Alexa now shows Baidu.com's traffic back up to previous levels.

BIDU's tenacious hold on its gains are likely to result in greater strength tomorrow, so I closed half of my short position in after hours trading, at 66.23 (short basis is 74.89).

As yet undecided whether to wait for a recommence on the downtrend, or cover the lot and, perhaps, go long.

As expected, BIDU gave us a hefty gap up, opening at 68.12,ranging up to 73.25, where I attempted to short more, but no shares available. Later in the day I was able to add more short shares at 70.77, allowing me to reclaim some part of the day's loss. Closed the trade at 69.70.

I'm out of BIDU, but watching closely. Its trend of lower highs resumes as expected. Eventually, it will bid up in a morning rally providing another short opportunity. I have an alert set for my cell phone.

looks like she'sready for a move.

Put it on your watchlist.

Insiders free to sell after first lock up period (180 days after 4.august 2005)  expired.stock's got lots of beating since IPO.

Can someone tell, how many shares are outstanding now and how many will be after the very end of  1year lockup.have find different numbers: yahoo gives 24M, but also one can find 33M.

thnks.

nice bounce yesterday.volume a bit low.will keep it on radar,though.

good short play from time to time.

Anyone checking BIDU? I don't own this stock but It showed up in my filter 3 weeks ago @ 94.00 & now its up 23% :o

1) MACD weekly bullish cross above zero level
2) Ascending breakout above $130.00 in play ;)

that's over for this time.sold my only long position.

9mo  +103%

http://v.baidu.com/index.shtml

Videos on Baidu.com 8)

"BIDU" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.   ;)               
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.   ;)               
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$    ;D


Friday's closing chart.......     
   

premarket @ 140$  >:D >:D >:D

BIDU: RBC Capital Ups to Outperform from Sector Perform; Ups Tgt to $164 vs $124; Analyst Notes
Friday , April 27, 2007 08:27ET

Issuer: Baidu.com, Incorporated ADR (NasdaqNM: BIDU)

Analyst Firm:  RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Outperform (from Sector Perform)
Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $164.00 (+32.26% from $124.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm says Baidu seems to have executed successfully through the first speedbump in its life as a public company. The most important takeaway from 1Q07 report was not the strong guidance but the reacceleration of the underlying fundamentals of customer spend and net adds.

I shorted it in PM at $142..impossible to resist  ;D

BIDU continues to trade below its broken support line and below its  200-day moving average, leading us to believe that it may still have some downside ahead. However there is a hope for Bulls, stochastics are showing high oversold conditions, which may bring some buyers back.

I have to be simplistic about the fundamental analysis I make here at the Technimental Portfolio, because going too deep could mean rigidity and then it would be harder to follow an objective, technically based trading plan.

So, my fundamental case for buying BIDU today is fairly simple:

1 - The stock is currently valued at 43 times 2008 estimated EPS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BIDU). I remember when BIDU was valued at 100 plus times earnings;
2 - EPS is expected to grow 59.6% in 08 vs 07;
3 - If the earnings multiple equals the growth rate, then  the stock price would be $379.65;
4 - Many people believe BIDU is China's Google. At the current market valuation, BIDU is worth $5.6 B while GOOG is worth $104 B. This difference makes many people believe in extraordinary potential at BIDU.

Technically, the stock made a false breakdown in mid March. Often a false technical signal is followed by a true technical signal on the other side of the range:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44440;image)

BIDU rose 14% yesterday, so it was relatively strong, closing above the 50 days SMA with volume above average.

The Trading Plan is:

1. Buy BIDU for the TM Portfolio at today's open;
2. Take profits around $330;
3. Exit with a small loss if BIDU is set to close below the 50 days SMA, which today will be standing at $253.4.

The Trading Plan is:

1. Take profits around $330;
2. Exit with a small loss if BIDU is set to close below the 50 days SMA, which today will be standing at $253.73.

The Trading Plan is:

1. Take profits around $330;
2. Exit with a small loss if BIDU is set to close below the 50 days SMA, which today will be standing at $254.

The Trading Plan is:

1. Take profits around $330;
2. Exit with a small loss if BIDU is set to close below the 50 days SMA, which today will be standing at $254.47.

I know I planned to sell BIDU around $330, but in the end I'll be judged by the results, not the adherence to a trading plan, so I'll just sell it around today's open.

It occurred to me that BIDU is perhaps making a more disguised pattern, which is a descending channel, as represented below. Those two green lines are parallel.

The stock is up roughly 50% in a couple of weeks and I recognize that I was a bit late to this game. So I'll take my small profit and move on.

The Trading Plan is:

Sell BIDU.

updated chart look...
With The Golden Cross !

Below are the 6 Month and 3 Year charts.......