3SOF

Today I sold my shares in GOLD, with a nice profit - ;)

I don't want to keep it over the week-end. If all is all right monday, I'll probably buy it back.

Reason for selling was this article:


SAfrica gold miners in last-minute talks on strike

August 05, 2005 06:31:26 (ET)


JOHANNESBURG, Aug 5 (Reuters) - South Africa's Chamber of Mines said informal last-minute talks between gold miners and unions were under way on Friday in an effort to avert an industry-wide strike set to start on Sunday.

The strike was called after the unions rejected the latest offer by the Chamber of Mines, an industry group that negotiates on behalf of gold firms, of a 4.5 to 5.0 percent wage rise plus bonus payments.

Unions are demanding a 12 percent increase.

"There's been no further developments, there are informal discussions continuing, I suppose even between individual companies and unions," Frans Barker, chief negotiator for the Chamber, told Reuters.

"I'm afraid there has been no specific movement, though. The discussions will go on throughout the weekend. The strike would be very damaging to everyone, so all are trying to avoid it."

He said around 100,000 gold miners of 130,000 in the sector are represented by three unions, with 80,000 belonging to the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM).

The United Association of South Africa, representing around 15,000 members, has not yet committed to the strike since it was still counting strike ballots on Friday.

LAST-MINUTE TALKS

Gold Fields ((GFIJ.J)) Chief Executive Officer Ian Cockerill said on Thursday he was hopeful that last-minute talks with unions could avert the strike by gold miners.

Cockerill said the two sides were still communicating despite the strike declaration.

But Gwede Mantashe, general secretary of the National Union of Mineworkers, denied on Thursday talks were currently being held. Mantashe was not immediately available to comment on Friday.

Two years ago, unions declared a strike but it was averted hours before it was due to start with a last-minute deal.

A strike would lead to the loss of around 28,000 ounces of gold production and 79 million rand ($12.21 million) in lost revenue per day, a Deutsche Securities analyst has said.

The first country-wide strike in the world's biggest gold producing nation in 18 years would paralyse the South African mines of the world's second biggest producer AngloGold Ashanti ((AGLJ.J)), fourth ranked Gold Fields and sixth-placed Harmony Gold ((HARJ.J)).

The gold producers have said the bonus offered as part of the talks would kick in if the domestic gold price rose above the current 90,000 rand per kg, adding one percent to wages for each 5,000 rand/kg above the benchmark.

Mining firms, which gave workers a 10 percent wage rise two years ago, have taken a tough stand, saying they cannot afford rises much above inflation, which is running below four percent.

Chart shows that sell was a great move on your part.

To sell, or not to sell. That is what I am attempting to learn on 3SoF. I now hope, that I have learnt my lesson with setting stops. My wife cries "what! Another expensive lesson !" When will this ever end? 8) I lean back in my chair and plead for patience :D

Gold Hits Fresh Six-Week Peak on Oil, Dollar.......

Gold rose to a fresh six-week high on Friday, boosted by a drop in the dollar and firm oil prices, analysts said.

Spot gold traded up to $683.50 per ounce, beating Tuesday's peak of $681.30, before slipping to a quote of $679.10/679.50 at 1509 GMT, versus $675.80/$676.30 late in New York on Thursday.

"Gold has edged higher, supported by the softening dollar and strengthening oil prices," Barclays Capital said.

Gold's slip in later trading followed a dollar rally against the euro and yen after a Group of Seven meeting.

Gold's failure to hold at key levels may trigger profit-taking, other analysts said.

There is a risk that if we continue to fail through roughly $680, then there is a risk of disillusion and some liquidation," said Stephen Briggs, economist at SG Corporate and Investment Bank.

A weaker dollar gives buyers more purchasing power in dollar-denominated gold, which is also often seen as a hedge against oil-led inflation.

Oil topped $64 a barrel, extending a 3 percent gain a day earlier, as traders pondered a series of refinery outages in the United States that drained gasoline stocks as the typically heavy summer driving period approached.

Despite gold's range-bound trading pattern, analysts said the metal would set new highs further forward.

"We continue to believe that a weakening dollar will lend further support to gold prices given the historical inverse relationship between the two assets," Goldman Sachs said.

"We therefore continue to expect gold prices to rise to $750 by year end," it said in a report.

Deutsche Bank saw gold prices rising to $740 in the long run.

In other metals, palladium traded just below an 11-month high of $372 an ounce hit on Thursday. Spot was quoted at $371/376, against $367.50/$372.50 in the U.S. market.

"It's purely speculative and I don't think the fundamentals justify the move," Briggs said, adding palladium attracted good buying on a market perception that it had gained less than other metals in recent weeks.

Platinum was up $5 at $1,270/$1,275 an ounce, while silver was at $13.99/14.02 an ounce, versus $13.84/13.89.

My mistake Cumulina , Sorry !
Did I get this thread back to the way it was ?

That was quick work, setravis.

Thanks.

Quote from: cumulina on June 27, 2007, 03:25:36 PM
That was quick work, setravis.

Thanks.

I gave you an Applaud, for bringing that to my attention ! :-[

Going for the GOLD. Instability is currently making gold attractive. Looking for a breakout here.
Let's see

uc.

AP
Sector Snap: Gold Miners
Tuesday November 6, 1:41 pm ET 
Gold Mining Stocks Gain on Higher Gold Price Amid the Dollar's Continued Weakness


NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of gold miners climbed Tuesday, as the price of gold struck a 27-year high against the backdrop of the dollar's continued weakness.
An ounce of December gold added $14.20 to $825 on the New York Mercantile Exchange in midday trading, rising to its highest level since January 1980.



The price of gold has added about 26 percent since the beginning of the year, and gains accelerated within the last couple months as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice.

Lower interest rates undermine the dollar, which was already on a long-term downward spiral. Further supporting gold prices -- which typically trade inversely to the greenback -- the dollar fell against several major world currencies Tuesday, and touched a new record low against the 13-nation euro.

Meanwhile, oil prices touched an all-time high of $97 a barrel on geopolitical and other concerns. Rising oil prices are considered a signal of inflation, and gold is typically treated as a hedge against climbing prices.

In company-specific news, silver and gold miner Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. gained 55 cents, or 14.3 percent, to $4.39, after a Bear Stearns analyst said the stock is underpriced given strong metals prices.

Other gold mining stocks posted more modest gains.

Barrick Gold Corp. shares rose 87 cents to $46.91 and Newmont Mining Corp. added $1.53, or 2.9 percent, to $53.86.

Goldcorp Inc. shares picked up $1.17, or 3.3 percent, to $36.91. Gold Fields Ltd. shares added 56 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $17.67.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. shares rose $2.09, or 4.9 percent, to $44.95 and Randgold Resources Ltd. shares picked up $1.01, or 2.8 percent, to $37.11.

I am a registered user on Mywallst.net (premium member) and I just saw a show called Sweet Picks featuring Jake Bernstein, President of Trade-futures.com. He had ALOT of valueable information on Gold and gold in the markets these next few months.
Apparently, gold tends to decline from now until mid to late August, but then it has a strong rally until late September (it's a long term seasonality buy). If your planning on buying any gold, buy in late July, not right now.
You guys should check it out.

Gold has taken a dip and I think it's time to take a serious look at it again!!

Gold is complete in pullback.......

Gold issues again shined as the precious metal tacked on $5.30 to $920.40 an ounce. Barrick Gold (ABX) rose 1.71 to 44.75 and regained its 50-day moving average.

Goldcorp (GG) gained 1.75 to 46.09 in fast trade. The Canadian gold producer reports earnings July 31. Profit is slated to more than double to 25 cents a share.

 ;D Watch all 3 of this for a perfect call
>:D

Gold drops on rising dollar; grains end mixed
Tuesday August 12, 2008 
Gold prices sink again on rising dollar; grain prices finish mixed after USDA crop report


Gold prices dropped Tuesday for the eighth straight session, as speculative funds kept liquidating their holdings due to the stronger dollar.
Energy prices also moved lower, while grains finished mixed.


Gold -- regarded earlier this year as a hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar -- is now down 21 percent since its March record of $1,033.90 an ounce.

"August has thus far been a one-way staircase for bullion prices," wrote Jon Nadler, a precious metals analyst with Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal, in a research note Tuesday. "The recent volatility in most of these metals and currency markets appears to indicate a shift in the long-term trends of the dollar, the euro, and the precious metals."

On Tuesday, gold for December delivery lost $13.70 to settle at $814.60 an ounce on the Nymex, after dipping as low as $808.60.

Other metals also declined, as the dollar held steady against the euro but reached new 20-month highs against the pound.

Silver for September delivery fell 13.5 cents to settle at $14.485 an ounce on the Nymex, after sinking as low as $14.01. September copper fell 6.4 cents to settle at $3.2275 a pound.

Oil prices also fell due to the stronger dollar, as well as a lowered forecast for developed countries' energy use by the International Energy Agency.

On the Nymex, light, sweet crude dipped by $1.44 to settle at $113.01 a barrel, after dropping to a new three-month low of $112.31 during trading. Heating oil fell 4.14 cents to $3.0781 a gallon, while gasoline futures slipped 2.34 cents to $2.8432 a gallon.

Meanwhile, grains finished mixed Tuesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture lifted its production estimates for corn and wheat but lowered its forecast for soybeans.

On Tuesday, the USDA estimated that farmers will harvest 12.3 billion bushels of corn -- still down 6 percent from last year's crop, but better than previously believed thanks to the improvement in the weather. It estimated that the soybean crop will be 2.97 billion bushels, and the wheat crop will be 2.462 billion bushels.

If those forecasts are correct, this year's corn crop will be the second-largest ever, and the soybean crop will be the fourth-largest.

The figures were largely in line with agriculture analysts' expectations, but surprisingly positive given the storms that devastated Midwest farmland earlier this year, said Elaine Kub of commodities research firm DTN in Omaha, Neb.

"In ideal years, farmers will harvest 90 percent and lose 10 percent to the usual factors. And nonetheless, the USDA says they will harvest more than 91 percent. So that's perplexing," she said. Kub said the predictions could have a "wide margin of error."

Also, because grains prices have fallen so far so fast, it appears that supply to the market is waning a bit while demand is recovering, said Christian Mayer, an analyst with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis. This is giving traders a reason to bid up corn and soybean prices again.

"Farmers have not been selling much grain at these levels," Mayer said. He added that livestock producers -- major buyers of grains -- have decided to buy recently because prices have been low.

After taking a tumble last week, wheat for September delivery fell another 3.5 cents to end at $7.9025 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. But corn for December delivery rose 11.5 cents to $5.285 a bushel, and November soybeans rose 18 cents to $12.14 a bushel.

Gold plummets amid stronger dollar, oil decline
Friday August 15, 2008
Goodbye gold? Prices plunge below $800 as stronger US dollar erodes appeal


Gold, which scorched into the record books earlier this year, has suddenly gone cold.
Prices for the precious metal -- which touched $1,000 an ounce for the first time in March -- have plunged in recent weeks, and on Friday tumbled below $800 for the first time since late last year. It has been a sharp reversal for a bellwether of the commodities boom that only months ago seemed poised to soar to uncharted heights.

 
"All of the sudden, it seems like the bottom fell out," said David Beahm, a vice president at New Orleans-based gold dealer Blanchard and Co., who nonetheless believes the metal's decline is overblown and that prices will go up again later this year.

The dramatic sell-off -- gold has slashed more than $100 off its prices since Aug. 1 -- comes amid a host of bearish factors that have dented the metal's safe-haven appeal: The once-limping dollar is strengthening against its rivals, crude oil is easing from record levels and signs suggest the worst may be over for the flagging U.S. economy.

"It's very difficult to make a bullish argument for gold," said Rob Kurzatkowski, a futures analyst with OptionsXpress in Chicago. "There's just too many factors going against it at this point for traders to get really enthused about it."

Gold's drop Friday came as the dollar surged again, responding this time to the Federal Reserve's report of higher-than-expected industrial output for July. The greenback's rally comes as a slowdown among European economies weighs down the 15-nation euro, which bought $1.4672 in trading Friday, down from $1.4811 late Thursday.

The healthier dollar led traders to unload gold contracts Friday, with December futures slipping $22.40 to settle at $792.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier dipped more than $35 to $777.70, the lowest since Oct. 26, and 25 percent off the all-time trading high of $1,033.39 reached March 17.

Silver also made a stunning drop Friday, losing as much as 14 percent during the day. Silver for December delivery shed $1.43 to settle at $12.93 on the Nymex, its lowest close since almost a year ago.

Other commodities have also been battered lately, driven lower as falling oil prices prompt investors to dump positions in hard assets. In the past two months alone, platinum has lost 33 percent, silver 25 percent and copper 9 percent.

Still, gold's spiral seems to have taken even veteran market observers by surprise. Jon Nadler, an analyst with Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal, said Friday's free-fall was characterized by a "magnitude and viciousness of which was frightening."

"You can almost call it quits for the bull market," he said. "A lot of money has left."

But some analysts say it's too soon to bid goodbye to gold.

For one thing, demand for physical gold, such as jewelry, coins and bullion, typically falls off in the summer months and then picks up again toward the end of the year, especially in big gold-buying countries like India.

"As we move out of the summer months, gold could recoup and move above $900 again, but it's going to be difficult," said Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers in London.

Others say gold's steep price drop could attract new buyers into the market who missed the metal's record-setting rise earlier this year.

"Gold is on sale right now," said Beahm of Blanchard and Co., which is predicting the metal to jump to around $1,150 by the end of the year. "This is a very steep discount and now is probably a safe time to get in at a lower price than just a couple of weeks ago."

However, some consumers say gold prices need to come down even more before they pull out their wallets.

During a visit to Manhattan's famed Diamond District, Nadine Digiulio, who owns a transportation company in Peabody, Mass., said she would "definitely" be more interested in buying gold jewelry if the price goes down.

But her daughter, Lisa Digiulio was not even remotely interested.

"I'm affected by the price of gas right now so I'm not in the market for gold," she said.

Others seem unfazed by high prices.

Also in the Diamond District, Thelma Kondell, from New Jersey, who works in billing, bought an $800 platinum ring for her wedding and may be in the market for more pieces.

"It's a big rip off. Prices are just ridiculous," she said. "But I still buy it, I'm looking right now."

If gold goes below $700 an ounce, that will be the last great buying opportunity of the decade...       >:D

Gold prices fall on stronger dollar, crude drop
Friday August 29, 2008
Gold prices slide after dollar rises against euro, crude falls


NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold prices dipped Friday, weighed down by a stronger dollar and a small pullback in crude oil prices.
A stronger dollar often leads investors to sell commodities such as precious metals, which are attractive inflation hedges because they're known for holding their value. Lower oil prices also encourage selling of hard assets.

Gold for December delivery fell $2 to settle at $835.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier falling to $834.

Gold falls as doller gains ground on euro.......

Gold prices fell slightly Friday as a stronger dollar prompted selling from investors seeking commodities as an inflation hedge.


The 15-nation euro bought $1.4671, down from $1.4702 late Thursday in New York. A stronger dollar typically encourages investors to shed hard assets like gold, which is viewed as a safe-haven investment used to hedge against inflation and weakness in the U.S. currency.

Gold for December delivery fell $2 to settle at $835.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier dropping as low as $834.

Other precious metals traded mixed.

December silver inched up 0.2 cent to settle at $13.707 an ounce on the Nymex, while September copper fell 1.35 cents to settle at $3.387 a pound.

Jon Nadler, analyst with Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal, said the dollar's rally over the euro undercut gold's momentum and "basically negated the week's gains."

Gold "is down more than $80 on the month, a drop the magnitude of which has not been recorded since 1984," Nadler said in a note.

In energy markets, crude oil fell for a second day on expectations that the U.S. government will tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if Tropical Storm Gustav disrupts energy production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell 14 cents to settle at $115.46 a barrel on the Nymex, after earlier rising as high as $118.76 a barrel.

Other energy futures also fell. Heating oil lost 0.07 cent to settle at $3.1819 a gallon, while gasoline fell 1.15 cents to settle at $3.0099 a gallon.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, agriculture futures traded mostly lower.

Corn for December delivery fell 2.75 cents to settle at $5.85 a bushel, while November soybeans traded flat at $13.24 a bushel.

December wheat fell 9.75 cents to settle at $8.0125 a bushel.

Gold surges, pulls back in response to credit news
Thursday September 18, 2008
Gold prices jump above $900, then pull back sharply on credit market developments


NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold briefly shot above $900 an ounce Thursday as panicky investors poured money into safe-haven assets, but the metal later gave back its gains on a report that the government may move more aggressively to steady the teetering financial system.


Gold had gained over $110 in a frenzied two-day rally, including the largest ever one-day price advance on Wednesday. But late Thursday, after regular gold trading ended, investors began selling and shifting money back into stocks on a report that the U.S. government may create an entity to absorb banks' bad loans.

Gold for December delivery jumped as much as $75.50, or 8.8 percent, to $926 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange before easing back to settle at $897, still up $46.50. In aftermarket trading, prices fell $36.30 to $860.70 an ounce.

On Wednesday, gold rose as much as $90 before settling $70 higher at $850.50 an ounce, the biggest one-day jump ever.

Gold had languished for months, but found new life this week as turmoil in the financial sector dramatically increased with the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the government's bailout of American International Group Inc. The metal regained its appeal as a safe haven in rocky economic times.

The metal's push higher Thursday came after the Federal Reserve stepped up efforts to stem the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The central bank pumped $55 billion into temporary reserves in the United States to free up the strained financial system. Hours earlier, the Fed joined other central banks to flood world markets with dollars, hoping to stave off a collapse of international credit markets.

The emergency moves gave some comfort to Wall Street a day after a massive decline, but many investors, fearing more turbulence in coming days, continued to shift funds out of riskier investments like stocks and into the relative safety of precious metals and U.S. Treasury bills.

"This is a very scary time and everyone is asking one thing: 'Where is the safest place to put my money?' Right now, gold looks like a good place," said Kevin Grady, a gold trader at MF Global in New York.

Other precious metals ended higher Thursday. December silver jumped $1.025 to settle at $12.70 an ounce on the Nymex. December copper rose 2.35 cents to settle at $3.006 a pound, while October platinum gained $51.30 to $1,137.60 an ounce.

A weaker dollar also boosted gold Thursday. When the greenback falls, investors often buy gold, silver and other hard assets to hedge against inflation and weakness in the U.S. currency.

But gold is most attractive during times of economic crisis. The metal has long been considered a safe, alternative investment, primarily because it's known for holdings its value over time.

"Even during the Depression, a kilogram of gold bought you a new Ford, Chevy or Plymouth. And even now a kilogram of gold still buys you a new Ford, Chevy or Plymouth, said George Gero, vice president at RBC Capital Markets Global Futures in New York.

Still, gold's trading pattern has been marked by extreme volatility, and analysts noted that prices could fall as quickly as they popped up -- which they did in fact do, late in the day. Thursday's rally was already being limited by investors who were unloading positions to cash in on the previous day's advance.

"Perhaps we've had a little too much, too soon on this spike up," Gero said.

Gold Climbs in New York After Dollar Weakens on Fed Rate Cut

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in New York, touching the highest price in more than two months, as the dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve cut borrowing costs, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.

The dollar fell for a sixth straight session, dropping as much as 1.7 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies including the euro and yen. Yesterday, the Fed cut the benchmark rate from 1 percent to a target range of zero to 0.25 percent. Gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar and is headed for an eighth straight annual gain.

"These actions by the Fed are the exact thing that got us in trouble in the first place," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. "The dollar is doomed and gold can go to $1,200."

Gold futures for February delivery jumped $25.40, or 3 percent, to $868.10 an ounce at 9:48 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $871.30, the highest since Oct. 13. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 on March 17.

Silver futures for March delivery climbed 57.5 cents, or 5.4 percent, to $11.28 an ounce on the Comex.

AP
Early Glance: Gold companies
Wednesday February 4, 10:35 am ET 
Gold companies shares up at 10 a.m.


NEW YORK (AP) --
Shares of some top gold companies are up at 10 a.m.:
Barrick Gold rose $1.31 or 3.7 percent, to $37.16.
Gold Fields rose $.05 or .5 percent, to $10.65.
Goldcorp rose $1.19 or 4.2 percent, to $29.37.
Newmont Mining rose $1.83 or 4.7 percent, to $40.70.

Gold prices rise, other commodities fall
Wednesday February 18, 2009, 4:01 pm EST


NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold prices continued their ascent Wednesday as investors refrained from making big bets in equities amid growing skepticism over the government's plans to revive the economy.

Other commodities, including grain and energy futures, declined.

Investors have grown increasingly disillusioned over the government's efforts to stimulate the economy, doubtful that the plans will be enough to pull the U.S. out of the worst recession in decades. On Wednesday, President Barack Obama unveiled details of a $75 billion plan to stabilize the crippled housing market.

The initiative seeks to aid borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth, as well as those who are on the verge of foreclosure. But the announcement, which came one day after Obama signed a $787 billion economic stimulus plan into law, did little to ease Wall Street's worries.

While the stock market and other commodities have sustained big losses in recent weeks, gold prices have become a bright spot among downbeat forecasts for a prolonged recession. Gold tends to uphold its value better than other investments in times of economic turmoil.

Gold posted big advances over the past two days, rising 3.8 percent, despite strength in the dollar. Gold prices typically move inversely with the U.S. currency as investors use the commodity as a hedge against inflation. On Wednesday, the dollar climbed against most major currencies, including the euro and the British pound.

"When the dollar declines, gold usually tends to rise, but you've been seeing that trend being broken more forcefully," said Carlos Sanchez, an analyst with CPM Group in New York. "Not too many people want to go into the stock market right now."

Gold for April delivery rose $10.70 to settle at $978.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have risen 10.6 percent this year.

Other precious metals prices also rose. March silver added 28 cents to $14.29 an ounce, while May copper futures gained 1.2 cents to $1.4545 a pound.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.71 percent from 2.65 percent late Tuesday.

Oil prices tumbled below $35 a barrel on the Nymex, as investors doubted that the stimulus bill will do much to boost energy demand.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 31 cents to settle at $34.62 a barrel.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures slipped 5.66 cents to settle at $1.0652 a gallon, and heating oil fell 4 cents to settle at $1.1469 a gallon.

Grain prices fell on the Chicago Board of Trade.

May wheat futures shed 5 cents to $5.23 a bushel, while corn for May delivery slipped 1 penny to $3.58 a bushel.

May soybeans fell 18 cents to $8.8650 a bushel.

Want Gold? Wait for a Pullback...

It seems like everywhere you turn nowadays, you are hearing that the only place to have your money is gold. Basically, that has been a true statement and could remain true for quite some time. Investors have been buying record amounts of gold bars and coins, avoiding risky assets for the relative safety of bullion on continued fear about the health of the global financial system and the threat of coming inflation. In fact, it has been reported that the U.S. Mint has sold 92,000 ounces of its popular American Eagle coin last month, almost four times the amount sold a year ago and more than it shipped during the whole of the first half of 2007. Back on Dec. 5, gold had suffered the same fate as other commodities and had been crushed due to the forced selling by hedge funds.

Value of Junior Miners Stabilizes Relative to the Price of Gold.

With many junior miners up 200-300% or more off of late 2008 lows, it's tempting to label the move a speculative fervor beckoning for a pullback. The argument has logical appeal, but what if gold holds steady or even rises from here?

To see the possibilities, one need only to pull up relative price charts that compare the price of junior miners, over time, with the price of gold. These charts were decimated last fall, as junior miners lost far more than the metal. It looks like the shares and the commodity are returning to a more normal relationship.

Take three of the so-called "speculative juniors" that many point to for signs of excess in precious metals: Apollo Gold (Amex:AGT), Claude Resources (Amex:CGR) and U.S. Gold (Amex:UXG). The huge gains over the past few weeks don't look so speculative when compared to the underlying commodity.

Those relative charts don't look like runaway speculation. Sure, I would prefer if they were not so "V-shaped," as "v" reversals tend to break down. But the broader patterns leave no doubt that the bears pressed too hard in the fourth quarter of 2009, and as a result they are no longer in control.

Bottom line: If gold breaks down, all miners are vulnerable. But if gold can hold its own, I expect the junior miners to attract far more speculative interest. And if the yellow dog takes out last year's highs, we could see moves in junior miners that would shock even the most die hard gold bugs.

Gold, silver prices rise as investors hunker down
Gold, silver prices rise as investors flee riskier assets in search of safety
Friday February 20, 2009, 6:51 pm EST


NEW YORK (AP) -- The only commodities shining on Friday were precious metals as investors fled riskier assets in search of safety.

The price of gold broke above $1,000 Friday for the first time in nearly a year as the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 100 points. Gold has surged 48 percent over the past four months.

The April gold contract rose as high as $1,007.70 an ounce Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange before settling up $25.70 at $1,002.20. It finished up 6 percent for the week.

March silver rose 5.55 cents to finish at $14.49 an ounce -- also up 6 percent compared to last week's levels.

But May copper fell 5.5 cents to close at $1.433 a pound, and finished down 6 percent for the week. Copper is considered an industrial metal.

Energy prices fell, too, as anxieties about the economy escalated. Investors are nervous that if the recession is prolonged, individuals and businesses around the world will keep reining in their energy use.

Crude oil for March delivery expired Friday after falling 54 cents to settle at $38.94 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It still ended up 4 percent for the week, however.

April crude fell 15 cents on Friday to settle at $40.03 a barrel.

Gasoline futures fell 2.4 cents to settle at $1.0746 a gallon. Heating oil dropped less than a penny to finish at $1.1967 a gallon. Natural gas for March delivery slid 7.6 cents to close at $4.01 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Grain prices also declined.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat for March delivery slipped 0.25 cent to $5.1925 a bushel, March corn shed 3 cents to $3.5025 a bushel, and March soybeans sank 22 cents to $8.625 a bushel.

Gold prices little changed following economic data
More data showing falling prices for goods holds back advances for gold
Wednesday April 15, 2009, 4:36 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold was little changed Wednesday, held in check by data showing a drop-off in prices for consumer goods.

Other commodities, including energy and agriculture futures, were mostly lower.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that consumer prices fell 0.1 percent last month, mostly due to a drop in energy prices. The data, which followed Tuesday's report showing a sharp drop in wholesale prices in March, is further evidence that the inflationary pressures investors long feared have yet to surface.

Inflation tends to benefit gold, which investors use as a hedge against falling prices and a weak U.S. dollar.

Some analysts have warned that the government's numerous measures to stimulate the economy and pump money into the financial system to get banks lending again could spark inflation down the road. But data continues to suggest that the likelihood is much farther off than originally thought.

Gold prices have been largely range-bound in recent weeks as the market's optimism about the economy grows and investors shift funds into more risky assets like stocks. Following a massive rally that pulled the major stock indexes off of 12-year lows in early March, stocks have struggled this week to advance ahead of first-quarter earnings reports.

Investors are in wait-and-see mode, hesitating to make big bets in any market, anxious for what the reports will say about the direction of the economy.

"We're probably on hold until these earnings reports are done coming out," said Tom Pawlicki, commodities analyst with MF Global Research in Chicago, adding that investors are waiting to see whether the stock market can continue to rally.

Gold for June delivery added $1.50 to settle at $893.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

May silver inched up 3.5 cents to $12.80 an ounce, while July copper futures rose 8.05 cents to $2.2090 a pound.

On Wall Street, stocks traded mixed throughout most of the day, but moved moderately higher midafternoon following a report from the Federal Reserve. The central bank's survey of business conditions by region found five of 12 regional banks reporting that the economy's slide has slowed.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies.

Energy prices fluctuated on the Nymex, as investors pored over fresh reports that signaled demand remains weak. The Energy Information Administration said crude oil inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels last week -- more than double what analysts had expected. Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced its forecast for 2009 crude demand.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 16 cents to settle at $49.25 a barrel.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for May delivery rose less than a penny to $1.4619 a gallon, and heating oil added 1.3 cents at $1.4150 per gallon.

Grain prices were mostly lower on the Chicago Board of Trade.

July wheat futures dropped 7 cents to $5.27 a bushel, while corn for July delivery fell 9.5 cents to $3.94 a bushel.

July soybeans added 1.25 cents to $10.3150 a bushel.

Gold
Spot gold made a false break below short-term support at $865 before reversing to again test resistance at $900, in response to a sharp fall on the Dow. Further weakness on the Dow, accompanied by gold breakout above $900 would signal that (gold) selling pressure is easing. Penetration of the declining trendline would warn of a trend change. Reversal below $865, however, would confirm the down-trend with a target of primary support at $700.

Gold & Silver Show Strength.......

Gold
Spot gold completed a small double-bottom, breaking out above resistance at $900. Penetration of the declining trendline would warn of a trend change. Look for retracement that respects the new support level, followed by breakout above the falling trendline. Reversal below $865, however, would confirm the down-trend with a target of primary support at $700.

10 year Gold Chart...

Gold                                    $926.600              +$2.700          +0.29%

Gold prices continued to rise modestly today as equity markets turned sour. While gold is benefitting from the uncertain nature of the economy, a recovery would mean that much of that source of strength would dissipate. On the other hand, the beginnings of a recovery would also open up the way for dormant inflationary pressures to emerge. Given the sheer amount of capital injected into the economy, this is a considerable risk. Nevertheless, as the economy continues to sputter, financials remain weak, and housing data points to perhaps even more pain in the coming year, markets will likely continue to ebb and flow with sentiment. As such, until the economy shows signs of a more certain direction gold prices will likely trade flat or show only modest gains.

Gold

Spot gold broke through resistance at $920, marking the end of the two month correction, before retracing to test the new support level. Respect of support would confirm an advance to test primary resistance at $1000. Reversal below the rising (green) trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a failed signal and decline to primary support at $700 (confirmed if support at $870/$865 is penetrated).
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=48313)

Both gold and silver are nearing a resistance line and it looks like a strong selling point unless the US dollar lends a helping hand by continuing its decent.

Right now, keep your eyes fixed on the dollar. If it shows any signs of long term weakness, silver and gold will definitely benefit. But you will also have to take into account the resistance lines.


Gold $938.30

support at $900
resistance at $960

Gold prices climb to 2-month high as dollar falls...

NEW YORK – Gold prices jumped Thursday, rising above $950 an ounce for the first time in two months, as the dollar lost more ground against other currencies.

The precious metal has moved steadily higher in recent weeks amid weakness in the dollar. Prices are up 6.7 percent for the month. Gold benefits from a falling dollar because investors use the yellow metal as a hedge against inflation and a weak currency.

On Wall Street, stocks sold off sharply on disappointing jobs data, which touched off fresh worries about the economy. The Dow Jones industrials plunged nearly 190 points in afternoon trading, while broader market indexes lost more than 2.3 percent.

The steep selloff in stocks spurred some safe-haven buying of gold.

Gold for June delivery jumped $13.80 to settle at $951.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The last time the precious metal closed above $950 an ounce was March 23.

Other metals were mixed. July silver rose 16.5 cents to $14.4450 an ounce, while July copper futures slipped 5.55 cents to $2.0510 a pound.

Oil prices pulled back on the Nymex after jumping to a six-month high above $62 a barrel on Wednesday.

Light, sweet crude for June delivery fell 99 cents to settle at $61.05 a barrel. Gasoline futures dropped less than a penny to $1.7718 a gallon, while heating oil futures fell 0.88 cent to $1.5557 a gallon.

Grain prices were mixed on the Chicago Board of Trade.

July wheat futures fell 4.25 cents to $5.9350 a bushel, while corn for July delivery dipped 2 cents to $4.24 a bushel.

July soybeans rose 6 cents to $11.75 a bushel.

Gold Retraces...
Spot gold fell short of $1000, coinciding with a rally of the greenback — reflected on the US Dollar Index. The retracement is testing interim support at $940. Failure would warn of a down-swing to primary support at $870. Respect, however, would indicate another test of $1000. In the longer term, breakout above $1000, followed by confirmation of the new support level, would signal a primary advance. With a target of $1130 calculated as 1000 + ( 1000 - 870 ).

Gold
Spot gold confirmed its secondary reaction, respecting the new resistance level at $940. Expect a test of primary support at $870. In the longer term, failure of primary support would signal a test of the November 2008 low of $700; while respect of support would indicate another test of $1000.

Gold...The Significance Of $920 For Gold

Spot gold is testing the lower border of the consolidation between $920 and $940. Narrow consolidation is a continuation pattern and a close below $920 [orange] would test primary support at $870. A close above $940 (or intra-day rise above $950) is unlikely, but would signal that the correction has ended. In the longer term, failure of primary support would test the November 2008 low of $700; while breakout above $1000 would offer a long-term target of $1300 — calculated as 1000 + ( 1000 - 700 ).

Gold miners tend to lead the actual gold price and the Gold Miners Index [GDX] is testing the lower border of its trend channel. Twiggs Money Flow (13-Week) bearish divergence warns of a downward breakout and subsequent secondary correction — which would be a negative sign for the spot metal price.

Gold
Spot gold broke through resistance at 950, but the tall shadow and weak close are unconvincing. Follow-through above $960 would confirm that the correction is over, while reversal below $940 would signal continuation — and a likely test of primary support at $865. In the long term, breakout above $1000 would signal a primary advance with a target of 1100, while failure of primary support at $865 would test the November 2008 low of $700.

Inflation fears are the main driver behind the gold price. Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed, yesterday reassured his audience that inflationary and deflationary risks are evenly balanced. He also pointed out that "the absolute size of the Fed's balance sheet is not as scary as it used to be." The Fed now pays interest on excess reserves held on behalf of banks and is able to control the flow of liquidity into the economy by varying this interest rate. The question remains: will they do the right thing — or bow to the inevitable political pressure?

Gold...
Gold is advancing towards $1260. Breakout above $1260 would offer a target of $1360*. Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, warns of weakness and respect of resistance would indicate another test of primary support at $1160.
Target calculation: 1260 + ( 1260 - 1060 ) = 1360

Gold...
Gold Tests $1260

Gold is headed for another test of $1260; breakout would signal an advance to $1360*. Twiggs Momentum recovery above its declining trendline would indicate continuation of the primary up-trend. Respect of the trendline, however, would signal another test of support at $1160.

Target calculation: 1260 + ( 1260 - 1160 ) = 1360

Gold...

Gold is consolidating in a narrow band below resistance at $1260. Breakout is more likely and would signal an advance to $1360*, but reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another test of primary support at $1160. A 21-day Twiggs Momentum retracement that respects the zero line (from above) would confirm the primary up-trend; reversal below zero, however, would suggest a correction.

Target calculation: 1260 + ( 1260 - 1160 ) = 1360

Gold...

Gold broke through resistance at $1260 and is now retracing to test the new support level. Respect of $1260 would signal a primary advance to $1360. Reversal below $1240 is less likely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at $1160. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) retracement that respects the zero line (from above) would confirm the primary up-trend.

Target calculation: 1260 + ( 1260 - 1160 ) = 1360

Gold...
Gold broke is testing short-term resistance at $1300. Expect retracement to test the new support level at $1260. Respect would confirm a primary advance to $1360*. Failure of support is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) reversal below the rising trendline would signal a retracement; and respect of the zero line would confirm the up-trend.

Target calculation: 1260 + ( 1260 - 1160 ) = 1360

Gold...
Gold is testing short-term resistance at $1310. Reversal below the rising trendline on 21-day Twiggs Momentum Oscillator would signal retracement to test the new support level at $1260. Failure of support is unlikely and respect would confirm the primary advance to $1360*.

Target calculation: 1260 + ( 1260 - 1160 ) = 1360

Gold long-term view...
The recent surge in spot gold is attributable to the weakening dollar, but if one compares the Relative Strength of gold against the US Dollar Index it is clear that gold has been appreciating against the entire basket* of currencies since 2001. And the trend shows no signs of abatement.

The $DXY basket of currencies: Euro 57.6%, Japanese yen 13.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish krona 4.2%, and Swiss franc 3.6%.

Gold Prices Pop to New Record Highs !!!


Gold prices broke to new highs Wednesday as investors bought the metal as protection against a weakening U.S. dollar.
Gold for December delivery was adding $25.50 to $1,372.20 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price Wednesday has traded as high as $1,375.70 and as low as $1,350.
The U.S. dollar index was slipping 0.39% to $77.06 while the euro added 0.29% to $1.40 vs. the dollar. The spot gold price was up $20.20, according to Kitco's gold index.

Gold prices were rallying hard after the minutes of the last Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting signaled that the central bank is ready to jump-start another stimulus program. The Fed governors downgraded growth prospects for the U.S. economy for the rest of 2010 and 2011.
Although there was no consensus, many participants agreed that "it would be appropriate to provide additional monetary policy accommodation," if the unemployment and inflation rates continued to be low. The Department of Labor will release key inflation indicators -- September's core producer price index and consumer price index -- over the next two days and both are expected to remain unchanged.
Gold prices had been struggling as investors took advantage of high prices and booked profits, but after the Fed minutes were released, gold started to pare its losses and has rallied to almost new record highs. Gold has now hit a new intraday high of $1,375.70 an ounce, easily surpassing its previous record of $1,366.
More accommodative measures mean the Fed will expand its balance sheet by printing more money to buy more government debt and literally pump more money into the system. As the Fed prints money, the dollar loses value, which is good for gold prices.

The dollar-backed commodity becomes cheaper to buy in other currencies, which rise as the dollar loses steam. In addition, the brewing global currency war, as countries rush to lower their currency values to increase export growth, highlights how frail paper money is and gold, a hard currency, becomes a more attractive place to protect wealth.
Currency issues and the race to debase might also see an additional push Wednesday after China reported that September exports rose 25.1% as its currency stayed low despite the country's announcement in June that it would let the yuan rise in value.
Wednesday's rally in gold is also triggering technical buying from traders who sold at record prices and are now looking to jump back in. Scott Redler, chief strategic officer at T3Live.com, had recently gotten out of his macro longs in gold; he trades the SPDR Gold Shares(GLD_), which is only the second time he has done that in the last 3.5 years.

Gold...

The gold up-trend is accelerating, highlighted by a series of ever-steeper trendlines. The potential for further rapid gains is great, but so is the risk of a sudden reversal. A 21-day Twiggs Momentum break of its rising trendline would warn of a correction.

* Target calculation: 1260 + ( 1260 - 1160 ) = 1360

Gold...

Spot gold is testing support at $1320. Downward breakout would signal a correction to $1260, while recovery above $1350 would mean another test of $1390. Falling Twiggs Momentum (21-day) favors a correction, but respect of the zero line would signal another primary advance.

Gold...

Spot gold found support at $1320 and is now testing resistance at $1365. Yesterday's long tail indicates buying pressure. Upward breakout would test $1390. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) stopped falling, breaking the declining trendline. Respect of support at 6% (by TM) would indicate another strong advance.

* Target calculation: 1390 + ( 1390 - 1320 ) = 1460

THIS GOLD RALLY IS REAL.......

Gold stunned the financial world yesterday and spiked higher on fears that the USD was set to free fall as China and the US move closer to economic warfare.  The systemic risk to the USD is at such a high level that the entire world is on edge and the smart money is fleeing into gold bullion and gold equities.

For those of us who don't have the cash to play the bullion game with the hedge funds and billionaires of the world, there is always the option of buying an aggressive junior miner.  Junior mining stocks are risky but can be very rewarding if you back the right company.  The rally in gold has trickled down to the speculative side of the market and millions of dollars are being made in some of these junior mining penny stocks.  It has not been uncommon to see 5 to 10 fold moves in the stock prices of some junior miners,  this past month.

Gold...

Spot gold is consolidating in a narrow range below resistance at $1420, favoring continuation of the up-trend. Breakout would signal a surge to $1500. A Twiggs Momentum (21-day) trough high above zero would indicate another strong advance.

* Target calculation: 1380 + ( 1380 - 1260 ) = 1500

Gold...
A strengthening dollar is likely to weaken precious metals and commodity prices. Gold is forming a rounding top while bearish divergence on Twiggs Momentum (21-day) warns of a correction. Failure of support at $1360 would first test $1320, but could carry as low as the June high of $1260.

Gold...

A weakening dollar is likely to strengthen precious metals and commodity prices. Gold encountered short-term support at $1350, long tails on daily candles indicating buying pressure. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Momentum (21-day), however, continues to warn of a correction; only recovery above the declining trendline would negate this. Failure of support at $1350 would first test $1320, but could carry as low as the June high of $1260.

Gold...

The weakening dollar is likely to strengthen precious metals and commodity prices. Gold found support at $1320, evidenced by the long tail two days ago. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) remains below zero, warning of a correction; only recovery above the declining trendline would negate this...1st chart

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day), however, recovered above zero on GLD, indicating buying support...2nd chart

Gold...

The weakening dollar is likely to strengthen precious metals and commodity prices. Gold is testing support at $1320; recovery above $1350 would signal another attempt at $1420, while failure of support would offer a target of $1220*. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) below zero indicates weakness, but recovery above the declining trendline would indicate another rally.

* Target calculation: 1320 - ( 1420 - 1320 ) = 1220; 1420 + ( 1420 - 1320 ) = 1520

Bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) indicates buying support on GLD .

Gold...

The weakening dollar is likely to strengthen precious metals and commodities. Gold recovered above medium-term resistance at $1350, but Twiggs Momentum (21-day) remains below zero. A TMO peak below the zero line would warn of a down-trend — as would reversal below $1350. Respect of the rising trendline, however, would indicate another rally.

* Target calculation: 1320 - ( 1420 - 1320 ) = 1220; 1420 + ( 1420 - 1320 ) = 1520

Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) recovered above zero, indicating buying support on GLD. But reversal below zero would be a strong bear signal.

GOLD...

Gold Prices: Where Will They Finish 2011?
NEW YORK -- The answer to the question "where will gold prices go in 2011" is one of the most sought after predictions on Wall Street.
Gold prices rose 400% in the past decade and made a record breaking run in 2010, rising 26% and hitting an intraday high of $1,432 an ounce.
There are many factors that move the gold price. In 2010, one of the most popular reasons was investors buying gold as a hedge against financial disaster in Europe as European Union nations like Greece and Ireland teetered on the brink of default. The response by most governments, one of the biggest offenders being the U.S., was to print money. As paper currencies declined in value, the price of gold rose.

But 2011 has not fared so well for gold, with prices getting smacked with a weekly double-digit selloff so far. The common culprit has been labeled "rebalancing," where traders who bought gold at the end of the year to show they owned it dumped it in 2011 to book a profit. The tactical trading has wreaked havoc on the gold market.
In January, gold lost 6% of its value, leading many to wonder if the gold bubble had burst. The metal got some help at the end of the month from the political unrest in Egypt, but gold's safe haven bid didn't last. The metal has struggled to find solid footing in February.

Vote: Where will gold prices finish in 2011?


A read of the headlines would make it seem that the good times for gold should continue -- rising food prices, riots, inflation, conflict between North and South Korea, U.S. stimulus and high unemployment. But these factors, for now, have stopped moving the needle. Instead investment interest, which gold desperately needs to break the curse of its triple top, has waned.
The SPDR Gold Shares(GLD) dropped more than 50 tons of gold in January, a third of what the ETF added in 2010. Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco.com, has been warning of a fast and furious exit by traders and hedge funds, which could pummel the gold price.
"I would expect a sell by date in this market could come before the 2011 trading period is over." Nadler predicts that gold could slip to $1,150 an ounce and if that level doesn't hold, gold could drop past $1,000.

Although many gold traders have been conservative over the past few weeks, calling for more downside before a rally, Nadler is in the "bearish" minority.

Big time investor, Jim Rogers, stands behind his long term $2,000 gold price prediction.

"It'll probably be much higher than $2,000 in the [next] decade but maybe even sooner, I don't know. But to me it seems pretty clear that it'll go to at least $2,000. If you adjust the old high back in 1980 for inflation, gold should be over $2,000 now."
Rogers does think that at some point gold will be a bubble but that prices are far from that level, "at the end everybody owns it, everybody becomes hysterical ... [we are] halfway [along in that process]."

Other estimates fall right in the middle. Out of the slew of mining executives I spoke to at the Denver Gold Forum in September of 2010, those from Angico-Eagle(AEM), Eldorado Gold(EGO) and Randgold(GOLD) all predicted $1,500 gold.
Goldman Sachs(GS) has predicted $1,650 an ounce for gold in 2011, although has called for a top in prices during 2012. The company also released a note recently that listed all the reasons why investors shouldn't own gold.
Goldman argues that gold can no longer be considered a consistent inflation hedge and said inflation fears and loose monetary policies were already baked into higher gold prices. If inflation doesn't actually materialize, gold could see more downside. Goldman also goes on to say that gold doesn't fulfill its role of a safe haven asset in an investor's portfolio as tactical traders have made prices more volatile.
Morgan Stanley(MS) has a 2011 gold price target of $1,512 an ounce while JPMorgan(JPM) will now accept gold as collateral.

Gold...
Gold recovered is rallying strongly after establishing primary support at $1320. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) penetration of the descending trendline would suggest another advance. Breakout above $1420 would confirm, offering a target of $1520*.

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 - 1320 ) = 1520

Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) holding above zero on GLD signals buying pressure.

Gold tests resistance as dollar weakens

Gold...
Gold is testing resistance at $1420 in response to the weaker dollar and turmoil in the Middle East. Breakout above $1420 would signal a fresh advance to $1520*. A Twiggs Momentum (21-day) trough above zero would confirm.

Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 - 1320 ) = 1520

Rising Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) on GLD indicates buying pressure. Again, a trough above the zero line would signal a primary advance.

Gold...

Gold broke through resistance at $1420, signaling an advance to $1520*. The metal is now retracing to test the new support level; respect would confirm the signal. A Twiggs Momentum (21-day) trough above zero would add further confirmation.

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 - 1320 ) = 1520

Gold breakout imminent
Gold...
Gold rallied off support at $1380 and is testing resistance at $1440. Breakout would signal a primary advance to $1500*. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) respected zero, suggesting another advance.

* Target calculation: 1400 + ( 1400 - 1300 ) = 1500

Gold breakout imminent...

The recent dip on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow also respected the zero line, signaling buying pressure.

Gold...
Gold hesitated below $1450 as crude oil weakened and the dollar rallied, but now looks ready to resume its advance to $1500*. Another Twiggs Momentum (21-day) trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Breakout above $1450 would confirm, while failure of short-term support at $1410 would weaken the signal.

* Target calculation: 1400 + ( 1400 - 1300 ) = 1500

On GLD, a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm another advance.

Summary Box: Gold prices whipsaw
Summary Box: Gold prices whipsaw on debt uncertainty, shooting higher then closing lower

Wednesday July 27, 2011, 4:42 pm
PRICE SWINGS: Gold for August delivery went as high as $1,627.90 an before settling down $1.70 at $1,615.10 an ounce.

UNCERTAIN NEWS: Gold trading is volatile because investors are buying or selling based on every headline about the debt debate. If Congress can't reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling by Aug. 2, the U.S. could default on its debt, which would send gold prices higher.

OIL FALLS: Oil prices fell after the nation's oil and gasoline supplies rose, with benchmark crude losing $2.19 to settle at $97.40 per barrel.

Gold prices keep pushing higher, hit new record
Gold prices keep pushing higher, hit new record as investor unease rules markets

The price of gold is streaking past $1,700 an ounce Monday, Aug. 8, 2011, for the first time as investors, beset by worries about debt and slowing global growth, seek safety in the metal. (A

On Tuesday August 9, 2011, 11:58 am EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold prices pushed to new heights Tuesday as investors digested the possible consequences of the lowered U.S. credit rating and Europe's debt crisis.

Some investors view gold as a safer bet amid rising worries about debt levels of the major economies and tumbling stock markets. Its value, unlike that of a currency, doesn't hinge on whether countries can make their bond payments, or on the vigor of their economies.

In midday trading, gold futures rose $19.50, or about 1 percent, to $1,732.70 per ounce after setting a record of $1,782.50 earlier in the day.

The declining appeal of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven and nervousness about flagging global growth have helped propel gold.

The metal's price has more than doubled since the recession began in late 2007. Its climb accelerated this summer as U.S. lawmakers took a fight about raising the country's ability to borrow money needed to pay debts to the last minute, and Europe's debt crisis threatened to spread to two of its biggest economies, Spain and Italy.

Standard & Poor's last week cut the U.S. credit rating to AA+ from the top-notch AAA because of worries that politicians are too sharply divided to enact significant spending cuts.

The Federal Reserve's policymakers are meeting Tuesday. Investors, fearing the increasing likelihood of a recession, are expecting the Fed may announce new efforts to support the economy. Central bank efforts to boost the economy by pushing down interest rates are already reflected in gold's price, said HSBC commodities analyst James Steel.

The central bank's extraordinary efforts to drive interest rates lower in order to support lending tempered the dollar's appeal as a safe haven. That's helped make gold more attractive to investors.

While gold on Monday topped $1,700 an ounce for the first time, it remains below a 1980 peak when adjusted for inflation. In 1980, an ounce of gold sold for $850, or about $2,400 in today's dollar.

Gold Prices Surge as Equities Continue Selloff...
08/10/11 - 10:28 AM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold prices advanced Wednesday as fears of a global recession and a stagnant U.S. economy continued to plague equities markets.

After gold December futures settled at $1743 an ounce and soared to a new all-time high of $1783 during intraday trading yesterday, prices were gaining $30 to $1773 an ounce Wednesday morning. Gold has hit a high of $1777 and a low of $1740 so far today. Meanwhile, the spot gold price was rising by $28 to $1,773, according to Kitco's gold index.

While some traders have taken profits in the short term to cover losses in the equities markets, gold prices have continued to hit a round of highs recently. On Monday, the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust(GLD) reported its highest daily inflows since May of last year at 23.6 tons, with holdings now just under the all-time high of 1,310 tons seen in June 2010.

After the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates near-zero for at least two years, the Dow rebounded from Monday's market meltdown, shooting up more than 400 points by Tuesday's close.
With stocks plunging back into the red today, investors seem unsure of how to parse the Fed's statement. Although investors welcomed the extra clarity from the Fed, the indication that sluggish growth is expected for a prolonged time period was worrying investors. Volatility in the market remained high with the VIX, commonly known as the fear index, derived from options activity on the S&P, clinging to levels around 40. Heightened uncertainty kept Treasuries and gold as the two safest assets to store money.
However, a report by RBC Capital Markets did note that "today is likely to be quieter than the previous three sessions as the market takes stock ahead of the next move." With panic trades subsiding compared to Monday, the market has been trying to find a bottom in stocks, leaving open the possibility that gold prices could ease.
Meanwhile, silver has not been able to keep up with gold's strong upward trend. Silver prices for September were losing 44 cents to $38.32 an ounce Wednesday.
"Silver may lag here but the investment demand and cheaper price relative to gold should bring attention to investors," wrote Geroge Gero, precious metals strategist at RBC Wealth Management.

Most gold mining stocks and funds were gaining after settling in positive territory yesterday. SPDR Gold Trust(GLD) was rising more than 2%, while Yamana Gold(AUY) was ahead by 1.5%. Barrick Gold(ABX) inched up 0.9%, while Kinross Gold(KGC) dropped 2%.

Gold prices climb on mounting economic concerns
Gold prices climb as concerns deepen about slowing European economy; other commodities mixed


Tuesday August 16, 2011, 3:46 pm
Gold prices moved higher Tuesday as concerns deepened about the slowing European economy.

Economic growth in Germany and France barely budged in the second quarter, according to a new European Union report. That could hurt the broader economy across the 17 countries that use the euro.

The news reinforced concerns about demand for commodities in Europe, which also is dealing with sovereign debt problems in several countries.

Gold for December delivery rose $27 to finish at $1,785 an ounce. The price has risen about 10 percent since Aug. 1, when worries began to mount about slower economic growth in Europe and the U.S.

Investors buy gold because it's seen as a relatively stable asset to hold during uncertain economic times. It's also used as a hedge against currency movements and inflation.

MF Global senior market strategist Rich Ilczyszyn is one of the analysts who believes gold could reach $2,000 an ounce, unless the global economy stabilizes and there is a clearer picture about growth in the months ahead.

"It's perception and it's a fear-based trade and a very emotional trade if you will," he said of gold. "I think at some point cooler heads are going to prevail and you'll probably see traders go back into equities in some way."

Other metals were mixed on the day.

Platinum and palladium, which are used in automobile catalytic converters, rose after the Federal Reserve said factory production increased 0.9 percent in July, the biggest gain of the year. The auto industry accounted for most of the increase.

September palladium rose $10.15 to finish at $756.50 an ounce and October platinum gained $20.90 to end at $1,818.10 an ounce. September silver added 51.2 cents to end the day at $39.819 per ounce.

Copper, which is used in many construction materials, fell after the Commerce Department said July's new home construction dropped 1.5 percent from June to a seasonally adjusted 604,000 homes. September copper lost 3.8 cents to finish at $3.994 a pound.

Wheat prices rose on concerns that the Northern Plains spring wheat crop would fall short of expectations, Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC President Mike Zuzolo said.

About 13 percent of the wheat in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Washington had been harvested as of Friday, the U.S. Agriculture Department said. That compared with 31 percent at the same time last year.

About 66 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, compared with 82 percent a year ago, the agency said.

Wheat for September delivery added 12.25 cents to finish at $7.2475 a bushel, December corn rose 7.5 cents to $7.275 a bushel and November soybeans fell 1.75 cents to $13.495 a bushel.

Oil and other energy products were lower on concerns that demand may wane because of the slowing European economy.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery dropped $1.23 to finish at $86.65 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil lost 1.15 cents to finish at $2.9326 per gallon, gasoline futures dropped 2.07 cents to $2.8538 per gallon and natural gas fell 9.2 cents to finish at $3.932 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Aug. 17, 2011, 2:52 p.m. EDT

Gold settles at record just shy of $1,800
Venezuela's Chavez announces gold industry nationalization

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures settled at a record on Wednesday as investors remained nervous about the euro zone's sovereign-debt crisis and weak prospects for global growth.

Gold for December delivery /quotes/zigman/661658 GC1Z -0.05%  gained $8.80, or 0.5%, to end at $1,793.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

It had earlier traded as high as $1,797.60 an ounce.

Before Wednesday's high mark, gold's most recent settlement had come Tuesday, when the metal ended at a $1,785 per ounce, rising $27 for the session.

Stocks traded higher Wednesday and commodities such as oil also rose.

Support came from the ongoing concerns about the global economy. Also on Wednesday, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez said he is readying a decree to nationalize the country's gold industry.

The value of gold keeps rising and Venezuela can't allow it to continue to be taken away," Chavez said, according to the state-controlled news agency Agencia Venezolana de Noticias.

Venezuela has as much as $12 billion in gold reserves, Chavez said.

But the bulk of the concerns helping gold move toward a $1,800 settlement remained centered in Europe.

The outcome of Tuesday's meeting between the leaders of Germany and France "was disappointing," analysts at Commerzbank said in a note to clients.

"Even with the intention of creating a joint economic government for the euro zone, it will be difficult to translate the differing views of member states into convincing compromises. Uncertainty thus remains as to how the debt crisis will develop and this should keep the demand for gold as a safe haven high," they said.

Tuesday's gains came after weak economic growth data from Germany and the rest of the euro zone.

Meanwhile, September silver futures /quotes/zigman/704345 SI1U -0.15%   added 53 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $40.35 an ounce. That was silver's highest settlement in two weeks.

September copper /quotes/zigman/700184 HG1U +1.03%  rose 4 cents, or 1%, to $4.03 per pound.

Platinum and palladium also advanced, with October platinum /quotes/zigman/2304883 PL1V +0.13%  advancing $22.70, or 1.3%, to $1,840.80 an ounce. September palladium /quotes/zigman/2304928 PA1U +2.64%  rose $19.40, or 2.6%, to $775.90 an ounce.

Gold tests $1800/ounce
Spot gold is testing resistance at $1800. A short retracement would indicate that a test of $2000* is imminent.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 � 1600 ) = 2000

Gold hits latest record high, near $1,830
Gold racks up latest record high near $1,830 an ounce as fears of recession sink stocks

Thursday August 18, 2011, 6:09 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- The price of gold hit its latest record high, near $1,830 an ounce, as investors spooked by the prospect of a return to recession sought out safety Thursday in the precious metal.

Gold prices have more than doubled since the recession began in late 2007. They've risen about 19 percent since the beginning of June, as European leaders struggled to keep the debt crisis from infecting the region's major economies and U.S. politicians nearly drove the country to the brink of default, prompting Standard & Poor's to cut the country's AAA credit rating.

Morgan Stanley on Thursday cut its forecast for global economic growth for this year and 2012, saying the U.S. and the 17 countries that use the euro were "hovering dangerously close to a recession."

While gold has hit a series of record highs over the past 2 1/2 months, the Standard & Poor's 500 has dropped about 15 percent, while the dollar, a traditional safe haven during periods of market turbulence and fear, is flat against a group of six major currencies.

The metal's value, unlike that of a currency, doesn't depend on the health of a single country's economy. Its swift rise has made it popular with investors seeking big returns, as well as presumed safety from turbulent financial markets.

On Thursday, for example, the S&P 500 fell 4.5 percent, following a selloff in European and Asian markets. A new slate of reports that pointed to a sharp slowdown in the economy spooked investors.

There was a steep drop in U.S. home sales last month, more people filed jobless claims last week and an August regional manufacturing report was weak. There was downbeat data from overseas.

Gold for December delivery, the most-traded futures contract, settled at $1,822 an ounce, up $28.20, or 1.6 percent. Earlier Thursday it hit $1,829.70 per ounce, a record high.

The metal's price could go higher. BofA Merrill Lynch commodities analyst Francisco Blanch on Thursday raised his price target for gold to $2,000 an ounce. Just a week ago, he'd set a $1,700 target. He cited the trend of central banks in emerging countries switching more of their currency reserves into gold.

"Physical gold is the ultimate collateral because it has no credit risk," Blanch wrote in a note to clients.

Purchases of gold by the world's central bankers more than quadrupled this April through June, compared with a year ago, said the World Gold Council.

President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela said Wednesday that he planned to nationalize the country's gold industry and convert to international reserves. Venezuela will also bring home its $11 billion in gold reserves currently stored in U.S. and European banks.

Chavez's plan alone shouldn't have much effect on gold's price, said George Gero, vice president at RBC Global Futures in New York.

"Venezuela's not a major gold producer. This gold has already been mined, stored and allocated wherever they're holding it. It's not changing the markets."

But Venezuela's move to nationalize its gold industry could have a "psychological impact" on gold prices, Gero said. If investors fear that other big commodity exporters in South America will follow in Venezuela's footsteps, possibly limiting exports and constricting the supply of the metal in world markets, that could boost the price.

And that's going to affect consumers. The metal is more than just a currency substitute or an investment opportunity. It's also a material used in industrial products and by consumers. With every fresh high the metal notches, the more consumers will have to pay for engagement rings and gold crowns for their teeth.

Big U.S. jewelry chains already raised prices this summer, citing the rising costs of gold and diamonds.

Despite gold's big run-up, it remains below its 1980 peak when adjusted for inflation. Then it was worth $850 an ounce, or about $2,400 in 2011 dollars.

Venezuela to withdraw billions in gold reserves
Moving $11 billion in gold reserves to boost Venezuela's risk for investors, analysts say

On Thursday August 18, 2011, 7:07 pm EDT
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Analysts say Venezuela's decision to pull $11 billion in gold reserves out of U.S. and European banks will make investors see the country as riskier.

President Hugo Chavez has announced the plan while also saying the government will nationalize gold mining operations in the South American country.

Economist Jose Guerra says the decision will have an impact on "the perception of risk" for investors as the gold is moved to Venezuela, where there are fewer controls.

Diego Moya-Ocampos, an analyst with IHS Global Insight in London, says the decision to pull the gold reserves out of U.S. and European banks is "going to affect transparency, and it's going to affect Venezuela in terms of credibility in international markets."

Gold hits a new high as Wall Street swings wildly
Gold careening closer to $1,900 an ounce as Wall Street swings wildly, uncertainty rules

Friday August 19, 2011, 4:42 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors flocked to gold Friday, sending it to the latest of a series of records, as fears about recession in the world's major economies infected financial markets.

The metal soared as high as $1,881.40 an ounce. It's been on a tear this summer, rising more than 15 percent in August alone. In the same three weeks, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has fallen about 12 percent.

Gold logged its biggest weekly gain since February 2009, according to FactSet data.

As an investment, the metal has climbed because of investors' concern about the uncertain state of the global economy, diving stock markets and moves by central banks around the world to weaken their currencies.

Central banks in developing countries are also swapping out major currencies for gold in their reserves, driving up demand for the metal.

At this point, analysts say more than fear is driving gold higher. The simple fact that it has kept rising in an otherwise turbulent market is part of the metal's appeal. The recent surge "lacks a lot of explanation," said Jon Nadler, an analyst for Kitco Bullion Dealers, and that, to him, signals danger of a deep reversal as it approaches $2,000 an ounce.

But analysts have been predicting a top in the market for months only to see gold's climb accelerate.

The last time gold was worth less than $1,000 an ounce was October 2009. It gained steadily from there, and then burst higher this summer, crossing $1,600 an ounce for the first time in mid-July; three weeks later it was worth more than $1,700 an ounce, and 10 days later, it passed $1,800 an ounce.

Gold for December delivery, the most actively traded contract, settled up $30.20, or 1.6 percent, at $1,852.20 an ounce.

Still, these record highs remain below gold's 1980 peak of $850 when adjusted for inflation; that equals about $2,400 in today's dollars.

That record could be knocked out if investors keep betting that gold will protect them if the U.S. and Europe fall back into recession, which could sink stock prices.

Several major banks and economists have recently sounded warnings on the risk of a new downturn.

Morgan Stanley on Thursday cut its global economic growth forecast for this year and next, saying the U.S. and the 17 countries that use the euro were "hovering dangerously close to a recession."

JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup followed suit on Friday.

JPMorgan Chase cut its forecast steeply for growth in the U.S., the world's biggest economy, to a measly 1 percent in the last three months of the year from an already weak 2.5 percent.

"The risks of a recession are clearly elevated," said JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli.

Citi thinks weak growth will last a long time. It expects the U.S. economy to grow a tepid 2.1 percent next year, not nearly enough to add the jobs needed to reduce unemployment.

So what would $2,000 an ounce gold mean for shoppers? Gold is used in industrial products and mainstream consumer goods. With every fresh high, consumers will have to pay more for everything from engagement rings to crowns for their teeth.

Big U.S. jewelry chains already raised prices this summer, citing the rising costs of gold and diamonds.

The surge in gold is causing "major problems" for jewelry sellers, Kitco's Nadler said. Stores are asking designers to make different kinds of pieces that use less gold, swapping in steel or palladium.

And the surge in gold is affecting gold-producing countries, even minor exporters.

Police in Guyana said Friday that the surge had triggering killings, robberies and other crimes across the South American country. Venezuela said earlier this week that it was nationalizing its gold industry and bringing home its $11 billion in gold reserves.

Gold's Advance Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 2009 on Bet Fed Will Act

On Wednesday August 31, 2011, 2:28 pm EDT
Gold rose in New York, capping the biggest monthly gain since November 2009, on speculation that the Federal Reserve will take more action to spur growth.

Minutes released yesterday from the Fed's meeting earlier this month showed some policy makers favored more aggressive action to stimulate growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose as much as 1.3 percent to the highest in almost four weeks, erasing its 2011 loss. Gold is up 12 percent this month after touching an all-time high of $1,917.90 an ounce on Aug. 23.

"Equities are reasserting themselves, but in the backdrop, traders know the Fed is going to do something to stimulate the economy, so sell-offs in gold are being bought," Adam Klopfenstein, a strategist at MF Global in Chicago, said in a telephone interview.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $1.90, or 0.1 percent, to settle at $1,831.70 at 1:56 p.m. on the Comex. The most-active contract has risen 29 percent this year.

Earlier, the price dropped as much as 0.9 percent as equities rallied. Gold surged in August on mounting speculation that the U.S. economic recovery will falter and as the Federal Reserve pledged to keep borrowing costs at a record low until mid-2013. This month, the metal also reached records in euros and British pounds amid Europe's sovereign-debt crisis.

"With stocks rallying, there's just an excuse for investors to take profits on gold," Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago, said in a telephone interview.

Silver futures for December delivery rose 30.4 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $41.768 an ounce on the Comex, capping a 4.1 percent gain in August.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for October delivery climbed $3.10, or 0.2 percent, to $1,856.20 an ounce. Palladium futures for December delivery gained $11.15, or 1.4 percent, to $790.45 an ounce.

This month, palladium fell 4.5 percent and platinum gained 4 percent.

Gold rises as the dollar falls

By Colin Twiggs
July 25th, 2013 6:00 a.m. EDT (8:00 p:m AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes. Any advice contained therein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs and must not be construed as advice to buy, sell, hold or otherwise deal with any securities or other investments. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained therein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.



Gold broke resistance at $1300/ounce, penetration of the descending trendline indicating that a bottom is forming. Reversal below $1300 would suggest another test of primary support at $1200. Respect of support at $1300 and breakout above $1350 is unlikely, but would target $1400.