Hi, everybody!!
I would like to initiaze a new topic as how to find a 10 bag stock. It is not for day trade, it is for long term investment.
I would like to contribute s little first and hope to get more response from others.
Based on my research, the best way to find 10-bags is to follow the follwing steps:
1. Scan the universe of stocks which has the biggest volume increase and the stock break out from a long flat base; the stock price should be below $5.00 (better between $0.5-$2)
before the break-out.
2. Check the reason behind the break-out. If this is due to the
a). company's financial improvement (from long loss to a profit), or
b). new unique product, or big insider buying, or
c). new management team with good tracking record,
put it into watching list and look for entry point.
Examples:
a). China's Internet stocks: SINA, SOHU .. - aug 2002 all started their first profitable quarter at that time ($2.00 -> $45).
FORD - dec 2004 ($2.75->$27.5)
XWG - aug 2004 ($0.90 -> $15)
BOOM - nov 2004 ($3.5 -> $45)
b). AAPL - aug 2004 ($15 -> $45) iPod
TASR - march 2003 ($0.30 -> $30) stun gun
c). SCON - feb 2005 ($0.37 -> $1.1) new CEO and Sales VP
...
Only improved fundamentals can have long lasting gains on the investment.
If the gains have no fundamental support, it is short lived and you cannot sleep well when holding those stocks.
Hope that you can identify some of them and for a big gain.
what's considered a volume breakout? Is it supposed to keep greater volume for a time? If it dips in volume to below move, is that bad? Maybe I can post charts later on with the ones you listed to see better. good topic for discussion.
I would like to post the first stock I will take a position: MIVA at $6.30.
I am not expecting it will give me 10-bag return. Hope it to bring me 100% return within 1 year or 50% return within 6 months or 25% in 3 month, etc.
But I will not sell until it gained at least 50% which is its current book value.
Technically, after 50% gain in three days, it pulled back at support of $5.85 then rebounde.
Earning release: Next Monday.
My second pick is SYNA at $15.80.
Although it has very strong support at around $14-$15.00, I am afraid that the stock may not go that low.
So, trading stratery: take small position at $15.80 and double it if it goes down further to $14.
Exit: short term resistance at $18, next $20.
If I can achieve even only 10% gain within one month, that is componded 300% in a year.
SYNA is a well run company and the quick down is an over-reaction and should bounce back.
Let us see whether I am right on this one.
I believe those parameters work with penny stocks as well but I am interested in what the different search parameters are to find a stock that is flat line to a sudden volume increase. The stocks that are going to see 10 bag plus returns are probably priced lower like the examples you mentioned. Apple wasn't a 10 bagger but still worth the time.
The searches I use look at volume increases over a quarter to quarter basis but I would like to detect a sudden one day increase after quarters of flat line.
just find biopharma stocks wich have a very high chance of getting their medicin approved ..
(GTCB for example) it's a bit risky.. (if it's not approved.. down the drain) but hey..no high rewards without risk ;)
Hello Nikao!
I also think that GTCB can be a 10-bagger. Experts know that GTCB has a high chance to get Atryn approved, but investors still don't. :o When the moment of the approval is there (95% chance I think) there will be a huge explosion...
A nice opportunity to make money and that's what we want ;)
Stock Price: 1.77 at this moment.
Have a nice day! ;D
Jasssie
When will the approval be or not be? coming weeks, months, ...?
I expect the approval mid-september.
I would like to post my third pick:
BRCDE at $4.09 (today's range $3.99-$4.14). Short term target: $6.00 (6 months), long term target: $8.00 (12 months).
This is not a 10-bag stock either but with low risk and good expected return within one year, I am willing to give it a try.
In the mean time, I am still trying to look possible 10-bag stocks.
Update on my three picks:
1. MIVA released its 2005 2nd quarter earnings today. Rev 48.8 mill. It also settled down patent case with Yahoo. Guided whole year revenue higher but EPS uncertain. Still maintin end-year price target $9-$10;
2. SYNA has gained 5% since my buying point of $15.80 and I believe that it will continue its steady bounce from selloff.
3. BRCDE gained 3.4% from my buying point of $4.09. Short term target $6.00, long term target: $7.50. The revenue miss for current quarter is mainly due to its new 4G product roll out.
vphm a 6 bagger since may.
Updating on my picks:
MIVA:
It traded down to $5.30 after the company reported its earnings and I doubled my position and may double again if it downed further to $4.50-$4.75.
MIVA is a turnaround play and a buy-out candidate. My holding period is one year for this stock and is seeking for a 100% return from this level. I did not use stop loss rule on this stock based on what I know about its fundamentals. But if I find otherwise later on, I may sell it and take a loss.
So far I have never wrong on my picks for long term investment purpose.
My fist pick on CCK: bought on 06/05/2001 at $5.01, doubled it on 08/09/2001 at $3.68 and doubled it again on 11/27/2001 at $1.10.
It bottomed on 12/03/2001 at $0.83 and then reversed. It gained >1200% in 5 months to a high of around $12.0 but I sold it much earlier $5.30 (2/18/2002).
Of course, no matter how successful one was in the past, no one can be 100% certain he will be in the future. Only time will tell.
BRCDE:
The stock has been trading in a very narrow range for almost 4 months. But the company's new 4G product is selling well and the company guided higher for its next quarter revenue. I will hold for at least a 50% gain.
In general, it will be a big success if a big fund can have >30% annual return year by year.
Let us find out whether those picks can give me what I wanted!! Stay tuned.
David's trading has achieved much better result so far. That is for sure. Learned some of his rules and his psych. Need to learn more.
i know this shouldn't be here but i dont know how to start i new thread. ??? anybody catch MDGN. up 200% at one point. this is a real company with a real product. does anyone have thoughts on this? thanx.
UPDATE on my three picks:
MIVA and BRCDE are still building the base and I still believe that it will gain at least 50% by the end of this year. In fact, I added my position on MIVA at $5.30.
SYNA is nearing short term target of $18.00. If it can break out the $18.00 resistance, it will go up to $20.00.
My other picks: AMD, RHAT are also doing well. See my analysis on Stock Picking thread.
Pay attention to SCON. It is going to fly again ($0.70->$1.40)
Rethinking 10-bagger stock:
When we are talking about 10 bag-stocks, have you ever thought about sticking to one stock: buy-and-sell few times and make 10-times of gain even the stock did not move up at all?
Further more, do you believe that after you bought a stock and it lost 90% value in a matter of few months and you can still make 10-times of gain by trading that stock?
That is exactly what I did and did it in my ROTH IRA account.
That is my story:
On 2/18/2004, I bought 2,400 shares of SCON at $5.28, an investment of $12,682.
Right now it is a $0.70 stock. 87% lower than my purchasing price. But I already gained about 500% by sticking to this stock.
After I bought it, it crashed and reached a low of $0.80 in three months. I did not panic and did not take a loss either.
trade 1: Instead, I sold it when it rebounced to $1.60 (100% gain from its low) on 06/05/2004 for about $4,000
trade 2: Later, I bought it back at $0.80 and sold it one month later at $1.40, $4k->$7k.
trade 3: Bought it again at $0.80 and sold it at $1.60 one month later: $7k>$14k.
Now I am positive on my investment in three trades.
$0.80 was its all time low since it went public in 1993.
After the company reported poor result at the end of 2004, the stock tanked and broke down $0.80 for the first time in its history and reached a low of $0.37!!
trade 4: It rebounced from there and formed a double bottom. I bought it at $0.44 and sold it at $0.66 (50% gain). $14k->$21k.
trade 5: Buy it on pull-back $0.52 and sold it again at $0.83 (63% gain). $21k->$34k.
trade 6: Buy it the third time during its run up at $0.65 and sold it at $1.10 $34k->$57k.
trade 7: (Half trade) Now I bought it again at $0.69 and hope to sell it before the year end at $1.40.
If things go as expected, the 57k will become $114k, almost 10-bagger from $12k investment in Feb, 2004 in just 7 trades in two years.
Another fact: since 1993, no year-high is less than $5.00, except this year.
2005 year-high is $1.40.
SYNA made a quick move up today before the closing.
Good news is comming?
Couldn't be happier than this.
Exited my position on SYNA at $19.50 today.
Bought it on 8/8/2005 at $15.80 and sold it today. Hold it for one month.
Gain: 23%
The money will be used to buy STX tomorrow.
ShawFund: Your SCON story is unbelievable! Thanks for sharing! You were very lucky I guess with this very volatile stock. Can't imagine this can be reliably reproduced, you never know if it might crash back down to 0.37 when you think it's on it's way back up, therefore losing all you've gained in one year! But interesting and inspiring nontheless. How did you know when to buy and when to sell? Seems almost psychic-like!
Hi, irod:
Thank you for your interest on SCON.
Actually trading SCON is much easier than what you thought. 6 trades in two years.
Simple TA and fundamental will do it.
Look at the two year chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4998;image)
I mainly trade it based on:
1. KD (18,5) indicator , sell whenever KD(18,5) reached oversold and the price doubled from its low.
2. Important support level - buy at support. $0.80 is their all time low from 1993-2004. It is not surprised to see that there are many buyers whenever it dropped to $0.80.
3. If the price goes up so fast and gained 50% or more in few days, sell it. It is going to have a pull-back. That is one of IBD 8 sell rules.
The price crashed Dec 2004 because the management gave very dark picture of this company. Revenue only 4.5 million and $0.80 support is clearly not going to stand.
I gave up on SCON.
HOWEVER, things changed when the new CEO and VP for sales took over the company in Feb 2005.
Also they pre-announced revenue of $8.5 million for 2Q 2005 in April 2005.
So, you need to have both fundamental and technical to guide your trading on SCON.
Update on my holdings:
I am very happy I sold SYNA yesteray at its high. $20 is the strong resistance. 23% gain in one month.
Bought STX this morning on dip at $16.25.
Thank you! That is very informative and educational, and just made me want to learn more about TA. I appreciate it! *Applaud*
I do not know how to find 10 baggers, the risk is astronomical, and what is the time frame?
If I had to only shoot for ten baggers right now I would roll the dice with TAG, as I have myself, I have doubled down, and am waiting the thirty days to sell an earlier position I took much higher. I feel very comfortable with Rita as a sure 3 bagger, and $20 is possible within two years. look for NAVR, PXG, MTMD to rise about 80% in the next year. JAKK is probably good for 50%. VIRL could double to triple up as well. Good luck and sleep well
It is not easy to find 10-bager stock but possible. This site already found three 10-bag stocks.
AMRE.OB is one. It gained 1100 in 4 days (3StocksOnFire)
VPHM is another one (May 7 - $1.70 stock -> $17.30 now) in 4 months
HYRF.OB may be the third one (already up >400% in one month) see 3Penny Stocks on Fire.
The key is the fundamental improvement, good new products, hard for other company to enter. Those two agreed with the requirement.
Of course, it needs a lot of time to find one. But it is worth the effort.
I have learned a lot of new stuff here.
shawfind:
since I am new to TA and still learning, wuld you mind explaining what is KD indicatior and which stock charting software you can find it? Is it the same as fast or slow stochastics? do you use this indicator as a selling signal for all your stocks?
Thanks in advance!