I have done a little reading on this company in their latest 10Q.
From what I have found so far is that they have about 30M in cash and show growth. But what I also found interesting is that they have filed a lawsuit against IMCL re a product called Erbitux in which Repligen lays claim to the original cell pathways (not sure what it is all about but I have only just started my research), but when we hear more on this lawsuit I think this stock will move up.
Currently I view this company as a low risk/high reward stock not only because of this lawsuit but due to rising margins and sales going forward.
Nice break-out :o
Something else I found that could be another catalyst besides the patent infringement with IMCL.
It looks like RGEN has also filed a lawsuit Bristol Meyers over CTLA4-Ig for Autoimmune Disorders.
Repligen owns the exclusive rights to an issued U.S. patent that covers the use of CTLA4-
Ig for the treatment of various autoimmune diseases including rheumatoid arthritis and
multiple sclerosis. This patent will remain in force until 2021 and also covers a method of
treating rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, lupus and scleroderma with CTLA4-Ig
alone and in combination with other immunosuppressant drugs. Additionally, we own the
exclusive rights to a European patent with substantially similar claims that will remain in
force until 2013. Repligen owns the exclusive rights to these patents through a license
agreement with the University of Michigan and through a Cooperative Research and
Development Agreement with the United States Navy. These patents are independent of
the patents on CTLA4-Ig that were the subject of a lawsuit that Repligen and the
University previously prosecuted against Bristol-Myers Squibb Corporation.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Corporation presented positive results from two Phase 3 clinical
trials of their form of CTLA4-Ig at the annual meeting of the American College of
Rheumatology in October 2004. Bristol has disclosed that they completed filing a New
Drug Application for CTLA4-Ig in rheumatoid arthritis in March 2005. The FDA has
granted CTLA4-Ig (AbataceptTM) Fast Track Designation. Bristol anticipates launching
AbataceptTM by the end of 2005.
>>do you believe RGEN will continue to earn $2m profit per quarter.
if so it could double.<<
Daniel
Here is some speculation since we don't know anything for sure.... RGEN has the use patent for CTLA4 (drugs name) while BMY has the composition of matter patent but it expires in 09-11. RGEN doesn't expire until 2021 (it was issued last year) so BMY can extend patent protection for 10-12 years by doing a deal with RGEN for 3-5% of sales a year wich is 30-50 million a year.
Cheers
Applause to Stock-Kitty for fundamental analysis on RGEN.
Daniel,
I'm responding to your question in this folder so that we can keep comments together.
The July 27 gap up opening on earnings is a good example of a "Gap To Crap" vs. a "Gap And Go" Breakaway Gap. Often, it's difficult to tell which it is when a stock is called to open higher, but it helps greatly to make that determination if the stock is gapping out of a pattern, or gapping above resistance (or below support).
In this case, you can see from the chart below that RGEN gapped higher at the open on July 27 less than one penny above the Symmetrical Triangle. There never are any guarantees, but that was a very good indication that the gap up opening would be a "Gap And Go," not a "Gap To Crap." The HUGE volume that came in during that day's trading also was another strong indication that it was a "Gap And Go" Breakaway Gap.
Targets are then derived from the breakout (see chart below). Target #1 (3.95) was MADE yesterday for a 49% gain for anyone who bought the July 27 open of 2.65.
Too bad we weren't watching :(
Next post, I'll discuss where we are now.
Pure gamblling with very high risk any time something is up to a decision.
Especially in Biotech with Bristol-Meyers.
Either way up or way down before you can decide.
Daniel,
I changed my mind. ;D Let's look at the bigger picture first (weekly chart).
This is the Ichimoku chart which, in addition to the usual chart patterns, helps you to see "at a glance" what the trend is.
1. After the H&S top completed in October, 2003, we can see "at a glance" that RGEN also closed below the Kumo (cloud) in December, 2003. The Kumo (cloud) is the vertical green (or red) lines.
2. The inital rally off the July, 2004 low of 1.22 ended with the stock "getting stuck in the cloud," so to speak, in January, 2005, and it sold off to what became the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle.
3. The July 27, 2005 Breakaway Gap also was the first close ABOVE the Kumo (cloud), suggesting a change in trend from bearish to bullish. Sometimes stocks go above and below the Kumo (Cloud) in a meaningless fashion, which usually indicates that there is no trend.
In this case, the stock closing above the Kumo occurred on a breakout of a year and a half long Symmetrical Triangle pattern, suggesting that there's a good chance of upside targets being achieved. RGEN got to Target #1, the top of the Symmetrical Triangle at 3.95, in just under one month.
Okay, next we'll look at the chart since the July 27 breakout.
Daniel,
We know that RGEN is acting bullish because it broke out of an intermediate-term pattern (the year-and-half long Symmetrical Triangle), and we have confirmation that the Breakway Gap breakout was as bullish as it looked because Target #1 (3.95) was achieved in under one month, which produced a 49% gain from the point of the breakout.
Short-term, we're looking at a Bearish Wedge pattern, we've got a negative divergence in MACD, and MACD is ready to go below the signal line on a selloff. We also have 5 hits to the top of the Bearish Wedge pattern, so that's been validated as resistance.
You're entry of 3.75 is problematic because you're long near the top of a Bearish Wedge, and if RGEN doesn't soon breakout above the pattern, it's looking technically vulnerable to a selloff. That doesn't mean that it won't go higher after a selloff, but I say that it's problematic because you've got to decide how much risk you're willing to take in case it doesn't.
What I'd suggest is that you decide on a stop. The chart is acting bullish, but you want to protect yourself and limit your risk to something that you find acceptable.
I've drawn two trendlines at the bottom of the Bear Wedge. The first is a trendline off the breakaway gap day. The second (dotted red line) is drawn of the reaction low after the breakaway gap. Neither one has been validated with a "third hit." Those trendlines currently are at about 3.15-3.20, so your risk on a stop out is a loss of about 16%.
The last low was 3.04 on August 17. If you use that as a stop, the risk is a loss of about 19%.
If RGEN goes all the way back and fills the gap at 2.44, you'll be sitting on a paper loss of 35%, and you're also back below the Symmetrical Triangle, which would negate the bullishness of that upside breakout, in my view. That's a situation that you probably would prefer to avoid.
I put what I think is an "eliteG G-spot" on the chart in case he or someone else has a comment on that. After RGEN rallied on HUGE volume, it sold off for a few days, then rallied beyond the "G-spot," so it would seem to qualify.
Good luck with all of your trades, Daniel!
Rgen is sometimes just a MOMO play !
Quote from: rocket8 on August 29, 2005, 02:27:29 AM
last note: On September 6th BMY is supposed to get nofication as to whether its new drug will be approved. That new BMY drug supposedly uses RGEN's patent and may require BMY to pay RGEN a royalty. This would be huge news for RGEN and could send its stock into the clouds.
I sure hope that is what happens.
That would be nice, Daniel. Thanks for the information. Applause.
The way that might play out, technically, is for RGEN to break out above the Ascending Triangle.
EDIT: I added the target incorrectly. Should be 6.68.
Quote
Hi Rocket,
No need to panic about your entry point just yet... the long term TA hasn't hit the pegs -- so IMHO you'll see a nice spike between 4.38 - 4.98
The PPS "WILL" have to bounce off that lower trend line at about 3.65 for this perspective to materialize though... it can't go any lower than that over the next few days is my best estimation for the bounce into the spike.
That converging wedge is getting awfully tight. The bounce into the spike might very well happen tomorrow if it pings off that trend line or goes ahead and runs from here.
Take a look at END and you'll see a very similar short term (60 day) wedge with the spike that I make mention of. That spike happened this morning, and being an oil stock, anything goes with END, but under normal circumstances I would abandon ship when those rascals paint the charts! >:D You just might want to consider getting on the side lines when RGEN blows past that upper intermediate term trend line.
Hope that helps! Regards, Rabid
Well, it looks like it bounced off of 3.64 about twenty minutes after my last post. I think it will continue to bounce up that lower trendline, and then will have one big push into the spike. Keep your eyes open for an unexpected big gap up some AM. Can't tell ya what to do, but I can tell ya that I'd personally look to dump it on a significant gap. 8)
Good luck! Rabid
Thanks for the confidence, but remember -- each trader has to do their own DD and analysis --
I like this forum because there are so many disparate ideas and views -- always a new perspective, and something to learn from those perspectives...
I hope this indeed plays out profitable for you! Please. Do live with it in the cross-hairs until it resolves...
Rabid
Quote from: rocket8 on August 29, 2005, 09:17:19 PM
what is the difference between a BEARISH WEDGE and an ASCENDING TRIANGLE?
isn't one positive and the other negative? how does one tell the difference?
Daniel,
Here's a link to Stockcharts.com Chart School, which explains both patterns and many others.
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/index.html
Quoteknowing there is a "fundamental company event" next week... how would this affect Technical Analysis (TA) ?
I had difficulty figuring out how to answer that question, I think because it's more a case of "what are the technicals as we approach the fundamental company event?"
Let's go back and look again at the chart ahead of July 27 earnings, a fundamental company event. What did we know from the chart? We knew that RGEN was in a year and a half long Symmetrical Triangle formation. Did technical analysis tell us which way the triangle would break? No. The chart only told us where the converging trendlines were. The upper trendline was at 2.642 when earnings were released.
RGEN gapped up and opened at 2.65 on big volume. Now the chart/technical analysis has told us something. The chart was "ready," having formed that big Symmetrical Triangle pattern, and at the open, we found out that good earnings news produced a bullish technical breakout. That was a nice marriage of bullish fundamentals and bullish technicals, and it resulted in a "Gap And Go" to the 3.95 technical target.
Ahead of the September 6 fundamental event, what are we seeing in the chart?
1. All of the action since the July 27 earnings news is a Rising Wedge, which is at least short-term bearish if the lower rising wedge is broken to the downside. If RGEN closes above the top of the wedge, it's bullish.
2. The Symmetrical Triangle pattern on the chart below potentially has "morphed," or "changed into" an Ascending Triangle, bullish on an upside breakout (see the Ascending Triangle chart that I posted yesterday). The top of an Ascending Triangle pattern is flat. 3.95-3.97 in this case, bullish on an upside breakout.
So, ahead of the September 6 fundamental event, we know the "lines in the sand," so to speak. Let's say that today is September 6, and news is out that BMY will pay royalties to RGEN that will add substantially to RGEN's bottom line. RGEN is indicated to gap higher at the open. BID 4.00...ASK 4.05.
Is the chart suggesting anything?
I DON'T LIKE IT--
A WEEK SPIKE IN MY OPINION.
It has to push and push hard right now between 10:15 AM and 11:00 AM or it's a dead run.
IMHO
Rabid
Rocket - I hope you are on top of this!
It's going to have to blow through $4.27 -$4.30 with lots of steam and soon or it's dead
IMHO
Quote from: rocket8 on August 30, 2005, 11:13:36 AM
thank you. sold half at $4.10. :)
i willl let the other half ride and see where it goes for a while.
Good job. Applause.
RGEN has taken out the top of the Ascending Triangle (3.95-3.97). Volume in just the first 2+ hours already is nearly double its average daily volume, but I don't see any news to account for the rally. Makes me wonder if somebody knows something ???
I'd like to see RGEN also close above the top of the Rising Wedge, which comes in today at about 4.02, which would put the upside targets (see past charts) IN PLAY.
RGEN currently is BID...4.02...ASK...4.03.
Quotei am a student now at stockcharts. ;D
;D
Quote
Thanks for that information, Daniel.
RGEN closed at 4.00, above the top of the Ascending Triangle (3.95-3.97), on more than double its average daily volume, which is good, but it ran out of steam as Rabidmonk suspected (applauded), and we're left with the annoying little problem that it failed to close above the top of the Rising Wedge. Overall, given the general market weakness, RGEN had a good day.
The early rally to 4.18 was a DOUBLE breakout, and normally, you wouldn't sell that, you'd buy it. It was a breakout above the Ascending Triangle and the Rising Wedge. But, the Rising Wedge breakout didn't hold on a closing basis, and with all of the false breakouts we've had this summer and with the general market weakness, I think you made a wise move to take half off the table at 4.10, and lock in a 9%+ profit.
RGEN needs to take off to the upside almost immediately because it's developing some technical problems in this Rising Wedge. MACD, for example, is above its signal line, but it's showing a DOUBLE negative divergence. That means that on the last two highs in the stock, MACD has made a lower high, which is a non-confirmation of the price high.
I listed on the chart the Rising Wedge upper trendline data points for the remainder of the week. We'd like to see RGEN close above that.
MACD
Quote from: rocket8 on August 31, 2005, 02:13:06 AM
In addition to the products they sell RGEN owns intellectual property which is associated with:
1. a new drug coming out from BMY for which tiny RGEN may receive royalties
Daniel,
I agree with you but want to add something also. When BMY's product gets approval early September it will still take a while before RGEN really sees any of these royalties in their books. But in the long run RGEN's market value will go up and so will the PPS.
Cheers
PS still long :)
Quote from: rocket8 on August 31, 2005, 09:29:42 AM
Melf Elf --
MacD is showing a positive signs --
"a beer on the menu" means RGEN goes up and we celebrate. lol.
;D
QuoteUnfortunately, I do not know understand macd yet...learning as fast as i can. Does it mean that the 12-day price is growing slower than the 26-day price? Perhaps meaning that growth in the price per share is slowing?
Yeah. It's "running out of steam," as Rabidmonk put it, or running out of MOMO.
Those are some difficult questions to answer, Daniel, and I suspect that there might be almost as many different answers to them as there are technical analysts. ;D
David would have to speak for himself on why he thought something might go up into a certain date/news event. It might be based on an indicator, or just his opinion about what will happen, based on his past experience. Some technical analysts study cycles, which suggest to them that a trend is up until a certain date.
Quotesometimes I think of TA as being most useful when there is no news. is this incorrrect?
Himm-mm....
I haven't made a study of it, but I guess I'd have to say that when there is no news, stocks more often than not are base-building, or buliding a top, or range-bound, and that more often than not, it's the news that is the catalyst for a breakout or breakdown. Not always, of course.
In the case of RGEN, for example, some of the technical indicators like MACD, RSI, etc. were shaping up nicely ahead of July 27 earnings, meaning that they were looking favorable for an upside breakout (sort of "hinting at it"), but the stock was still in its year and a half long Symmetrical Triangle pattern.
Remember on July 27, when RGEN gapped a penny above the Symmetrical Triangle pattern on earnings? That was an upside technical breakout, and
it took the earnings news to show us on the chart that the stock had broken out. BTW, let's also be aware that, if the RGEN earnings hadn't been well-received by the market, regardless of how good we thought the earnings were, RGEN just as easily could have gapped to the downside, below the Symmetrical Triangle. For me, a gap down below support is a "sell first...ask questions later."
Remember: it isn't the news itself that's important, but
the market's response to the news that's important. For RGEN, it was a "Gap And Go" breakout on earnings news.
Quote from: Melf Elf on August 31, 2005, 02:28:30 PM
Quotesometimes I think of TA as being most useful when there is no news. is this incorrrect?
Daniel, TA isn't predictive. It describes the past trend, which may or may not continue in the future. It's statistical, and based on probablilities, statistical relationships, distributions, and central tendencies.That can work for you when trends continue...
But what TA mostly can do is let you know what's in the other guy's head, maybe what trading
programs will do. Traders and programs alike use TA....they win with it and they lose with it too...
Remember: it isn't the news itself that's important, but the market's response to the news that's important. For RGEN, it was a "Gap And Go" breakout on earnings news.
I concur.
Cheers
I decided to pick up some RGEN this mornin. Great analysis on this thread(applauds). Thx for the charting Melf. You may be right about the g-spot but it comes after a gap so I cant tell for certain. Thx for the news rocket. Lets see what she's got.
here is a 5-min study for today's action and a daily
viscious move south, i'm gonna say they were tryin to take out stops.. but I held onto my shares. lets see if we can counterattack here ;)
Quote from: rocket8 on September 07, 2005, 07:03:43 PM
$3.85 has proven a solid floor. with expectations that RGEN will one day move into the $5's this floor appears pretty solid.
I agree. From watching the stock for a few weeks already she now seems to be channeling between $3.85 and $4 whereas it was between $3.60 and 3.90 before.
This company is profitable and has its own pipeline of promising drugs, it only needs to be valued as such.
Cheers
Maybe it's not that bad Rocket. It's now right at the bottom of trading channel. Hopefully that's enough reason for ppl to buy and push this baby back up. hopefully this ship will not sink and keep captain Rocket afloat. Salute to captian Rocket >:D LOL good luck with your trade.
Quote from: rocket8 on September 15, 2005, 04:33:04 PM
oh yes, lost 7% today.
i don't know TA.
-rocket8
Daniel,
Baloney. If you didn't know any TA, you wouldn't have seen that coming.
1. When RGEN broke out above the Bearish Rising Wedge, you sold half of your position at 4.10, suspecting a false breakout (applauded).
2. You understood that there was a Double Negative Divergence in MACD at the top of the Bearish Wedge, but you decided to hold, since overall, RGEN had had a bullish breakout on July 27, and you liked the fundamentals.
3. You knew that RGEN closed at the bottom of the Bearish Wedge on Wednesday, so technically, you expected yesterday's drop on a downside break of the wedge.
You've learned alot of TA, but decided to hold the stock for fundamental reasons. I hope you make alot of $$$ on this one. You've worked hard on both the fundamentals and technicals, and I give you more applause for that, even though I want to give you a smite for saying that you don't know anything about TA.
:D >:D
Quote from: rocket8 on September 16, 2005, 10:22:07 AM
I am confused by your post. I know what TA was told to me. I do not have experience or knowledge in Technical Analysis. I was not putting down TA. Quite the opposite. I think TA is cool and I would like to learn it.
Sorry, Daniel, I was only kidding about giving you a smite, and I didn't think that you were putting down TA. You know more TA than what you think you do, is all I was saying, and you're making an effort to learn more. And, if you want to stick to the fundamentals, there's nothing wrong with that.
Hey, it's YOUR money! :D
QuoteBy the way did you forget my MACD joke?
No, I didn't forget it. ;D
Hi Rocket,
My take is for investors to hold long on RGEN at this juncture.
If you perform a correlation analysis between VPHM as it traded on 8-09-05 and RGEN as it trades today, you will see a great number of parallels. These are visible in the TA in both 1 year and 60 day charts -- especially the 60 day chart. I think a very similar resolution will play out with RGEN eventually. Unfortunately, I think longs are in for a little more blood letting over the next 5 to 7 trading sessions before an uptrend begins. Again, do some comparative analysis with this one, and you will see what appears to be very similar PPS patterns with very similar TA concentric with those patterns stock to stock. Dual or Quad monitors really facilitate comparisons, so if one isn't already running multiple monitors they should consider doing so.
Bottom line -- give it a litlle time.
Just MHO -- Rabid
P.S. are you in Finland? Ever hear of that 70's band named FOCUS? Just curious... I always liked the fusion stylings of Van Lear and Ackerman...
Quote from: rocket8 on September 20, 2005, 03:04:18 PM
what do you think MELF ? are we back in the KUMO ? trying to figure this stuff out i feel like perry KUMO! haha. ;D
Perry KUMO, ;)
RGEN is trading above the Kumo (vertical green lines), which is an area of support, and it's trading below the broken Bearish Rising Wedge (blue lines), which is an area of resistance overhead.
So, technically, since the break below the Bearish Rising Wedge four sessions ago, RGEN has been caught between a wedge and a Perry KUMO. ;D
Rocket8 asked if i would do some TA on this one and i actually came up with some pretty good stuff. I might have even convinced myself to partake in this endeavour ;D.
RGEN'S price action is forming a beautiful inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.
First off since rocket doesn't know much about TA i'll elplain whats suppose to happen in an inverted H & S pattern. I'm going to # the process and then label the #'s on the chart to match whats happening from my description to the price action on the chart. Call it a "key" if you will.
The Inverted H & S:
1. Price action from the stock is usually in a decline for a month or more losing interest from investors and prices reach some what of a climax for the downside move. The stock then rallies a small amount on low volume.
Left Shoulder:
2. A second decline from the small rally in phase 1. occurs on expanding volume to create another lower low and in turn, another rally is created on lowered volume. This price action creates a trough, which in our case is the Left shoulder, labled LS on the chart.
HEAD:
3. When the rally from the left shoulder ends another decline in price action occurs to make a new low on increasing volume, higher volume than the rally that occured after the low of the LS was formed. But not as high as the over volume of the LS. After the downside peak occurs another rally forms on low volume.
Still following me here ??? getting a little technical. Hence what were doing; Technical Analysis ;D
Right Shoulder
4.The rally from the low of the head peaks out and begins its next decline on considerably low volume. This second peak creates the neckline of the H&S pattern labled with the yellow line. Soon after the decline bottoms out and created another rally heading towards the neckline. Volume will Increase considerably during this phase. Finally, to complete a H&S pattern is must breakthrough the neckline. Though a H&S pattern may look perfect, if the rally from the right shoulder towards the neckline is not on heavy volume it is likely to occur that a false pattern has been created. In light of RGEN. We had heavy volume :D .
Projecting the profit Target:
To obtain a profit target. Measure the distance from the low of the head to the neckline. Project that amount from the breakout of the neckline on the right shoulder. With RGEN we have a nice looking target of $5.03. I havn't looked at any fundamentals so rocket would be better at telling if we are looking to see prices higher than this. But as Far as TA goes, we're looking at a target of $5.03
And now you've and a full lesson on the Inverted H & S pattern. RGEN was a perfect example of this, couldn't have picked a better stock to explain it 8)
-As far as the recent pullback its not of any surprise to me with the fairly sharp rise that preceded it. It looks like its building some support at $3.30 on low volume wich is near the peak of the rally of the LS.
- The main thing that needs to happen is for price action to close above this last rally. But even more importanly than that. A close above the high of the latest rally, would mean a HUGE filled gap from that occurred early in Jan of this year and at the beginning of the left shoulder. Two very bullish indicators at once, the close above the relative high of the last rally, and a close to fill a huge gap. What more could you ask for? Well you could ask nicely for price action to gap up on heavy volume of course ;D .
Well i think its about bed time haha 2:45 AM and im supposed to wake up at 6 AM for the opening bell lol. Oh well im young my body can handle it. And of course i love everything about the stock market.
Hope this was of any help Rocket8 and everyone else following this thread. Im fully invested so i'll probably sit and spectate this one.
Best of luck,
-fousc
Quote from: fousc on September 21, 2005, 05:46:02 AM
But as Far as TA goes, we're looking at a target of $5.03
Nice analysis, fousc. Applause.
Back on page 1 of this thread, I have the pattern as a Symmetrical Triangle. It's about the sixth post down on August 25 if you want to look at that chart. I lean toward the Symmetrical Triangle because the July 27 gap up was a gap above the triangle, almost to the exact penny. Targets: 3.95 (MADE on August 24) and 5.37.
If I measure the distance from the trendline to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle, the target is about 4.95 instead of 5.37, close to your 5.03.
QuoteIt looks like its building some support at $3.30 on low volume wich is near the peak of the rally of the LS.
The 3.30 area is close to eliteG's G-spot, at 3.32. He wasn't sure if it qualified as a G-spot, though, because of the gap up on July 27.
Thanks for the feedback melf. ;D
I too noticed the symetrical triangle when i was reviewing RGEN which indeed does give me the same target. I juse thought (IMO) that the inverted H&S was more appropriate due to the volume patterns along with the price action.
regards-
fousc
Quote from: rocket8 on September 21, 2005, 04:53:14 PM
As I understand it TA tells you where the support and resistance is and then you make your own decision as to whether to buy or sell right?
Daniel,
I like that. No guarantees that it
will be support or resitance, so you've got to decide whether you want to play it, or not. That's why we calculate the risk/reward. I'll use my STX trade yesterday as an example.
We had two Bullish Doji Star Hammers on the chart, and they appeared in the area of the November, 2004 gap. Now that the gap was filled, and with two bullish candlesticks showing up on the chart, I made the decision to play it for a countertrend rally. My risk if STX took out the low of those two candlesticks (14.81) was about 2%. My reward if STX rallied to/above 16 was about 6%, or triple my risk.
At that point, it boils down to, "based on what you're seeing in the chart, and given the risk/reward, do you want to play it, or not?" Given the beating that STX had taken and the good fundamentals, I played it, and I lost 2.1%. No big deal. On to the next trade.
QuoteIt seems what you guys are saying is that if RGEN breaks above $4 (with volume) we will go to $5.03 ?
No, we're never saying "will go." We're only saying what the pattern measurement is, and we're trying to assess the chances of the stock getting there. Volume, as you point out, is a big help. Then we look at other things, like how much overhead resistance there is, and other technical indiicators, etc.
Quote Are there TA clues as to whether that will happen or not?
Yes, there are clues, but, no, TA never answers the question, "Is the stock going to do XYZ, or not?" in a manner that is completely reliable. It's more a case of "the odds favor that the stock will do XYZ." But, no guarantees, or we'd all be billionaires :)
QuoteDoes the TA on RGEN answer that question?
Remember when we discussed the Bearish Rising Wedge in RGEN, and how the MACD had a Double Negative Divergence? How, as RGEN went higher, the MACD kept making lower highs and it wasn't confirming the successive price highs in the stock?
That "suggested" that the Bearish Rising Wedge
actually was bearish, that the stock had run out of upward momentum, and that the bearish pattern likely would resolve with a break to the downside, which it did. TA didn't "tell us" that RGEN would break to the downside, as a certainty. It just "suggested" it terms of "the odds favor..."
Take a look at the ASTM file for another example of how TA doesn't TELL US what's going to happen, but how it can help us to assess the chances of what will happen.
Here's an update, BTW, on what the MACD on RGEN did after the Double Negative Divergence:
Quote
looks my ship has come in.
lol.
finally ehh....
rocket8
day 2 and the fun continues.
here is where i suck.
i never know when to sell.
i try to apply the dave method of letting it go up but then i end up selling early for less of a gain anyway.
i sold 90% from $4.15 to $4.45.
Rocket8
Read where you have trouble trying to figure out when to sell a stock. You might try to use the MACD box below chart. I use this and it works real good for me but each person will have to use it in his own way but it is a good way to use buy and sell signals.
Look at chart I'm posting it is RGEN the one you have right now. The black line is the MACD line and the blue line is the MA line. When black line crosses over blue line going up that is a buy signal and when it crosses over going down that is the sell signal. Look at the past crossovers and you will see what I mean.
Remember each person has got to develop his own way when to buy and when to sell. I like to wait 2 or 3 days when a buy signal is given to be sure it's not a fake run up and I like to wait till the black line curves going down heading for the blue line to sell so I can get maximum gains.
Learn to use the buy and sell signals on the MACD box. If you need more info , Feel free to ask
Goodluck trading :)
Repost...Technical Analysis Board
Chart Patterns/Candlestick Patterns « Reply #22 on: Today at 12:02:26 PM
Quote from: fousc on Today at 04:44:46 AM
ascending channel
fousc,
Here's one that resolved to the downside (pattern in blue), so you have one of each direction. :D
Also, a Symmetrical Triangle fractal (repeating pattern)that broke out this week. Upside target is close the first Symmetrical Triangle target. As long as it remains above the breakout, I would expect to see the stock challenging 5.14-5.37 by the end of April, 2006; no later than the end of 2006.
bot 3.5k at 3.20...
a bunch of traders in my trading group (especially one of our TA traders) are buying.
here are his comments:
"both the 20 and 50 are pointing up and in parrellel on the one
year....chart readers will see it. "
we'll see...
g
gambler2075 ur group still like INNO ???