Endeavour International Corporation (END) is an international oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of energy reserves in the North Sea. For more information, visit http://www.endeavourcorp.com.
I really like the fundamentals on END, every tick oil rises it is immediately reflected on the company's revenues and earnings.
Technically volume and price are pushing higher in tandem, which is a bullish behavior as everybody knows:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3565;image)
Longer term the stock just crossed an important descending downtrend:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3566;image)
I can design a high reward/low risk trading plan with this kind of stock that is at a 52 week high. But I'll do that just tonight, on my first update of the analysis on END.
I'll buy END at today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% as usual. I will update the analysis on END everyday after the close until I sell the stock.
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I said I would put a trading plan for END, one that is able to get the upside potential at the same time it limits risk.
Usually my plan is very simple, and that is, to hold as long as the trend remains bullish and sell when it turns bearish.
There are a lot of ways to define the trend, being the most recognized and used the trendlines and moving averages. I've been using trendlines a lot, but I find moving averages very valuable too, so for END I'll design my technical trading plan based on moving averages crossovers.
I put a 10 day SMA on the chart (green line) and a 50 day SMA (red line). Now it is simple: I will hold END as long as the green line is above the red line.
interesting tradingplan! (at this time I only use the trendlines as rules..and the MA as side information just like Volume)
At what price did you enter yesterday?
Hello!
This my first post here on 3SF. Very nice website, David! :D
I'll follow your trades! ;)
Quote from: nikao on August 10, 2005, 03:08:06 AM
interesting tradingplan! (at this time I only use the trendlines as rules..and the MA as side information just like Volume)
At what price did you enter yesterday?
You can always see this information on the 3 Stocks on Fire link (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) at the lateral menu. As you can see it was at $4.45.
Quote from: Jasssie on August 10, 2005, 05:11:49 AM
Hello!
This my first post here on 3SF. Very nice website, David! :D
I'll follow your trades! ;)
Thanks Jassie, good luck for us :)
I'll just monitor the stock everyday and keep the plan. I don't even have to read news or hear rumors, the plan is the plan, and the plan will be followed.
Today, the green moving average is above the red one, so I'll hold END.
END was a bit overextended or overbought as you prefer and after a gap up at the open the stock couldn't hold the advance and traders sold off in profit taking. Nothing serious about this market action, just normal market behavior.
The 10 day SMA (green) is above the 50 day SMA (red) so I'll continue to hold END.
Yeah, this is what happens when a stock is truly bullish: after a big red candle you get an even bigger white one.
7.57% rise was really marvelous after yesterday's decline. I don't have much to think about, of course the green line is above the red one, so let the profits run on END.
David,
I must disagree on END being a buy. If anything, in my opinion, I would be looking to exit this stock this week.
Reasons:
DPO's (all values) PEGGED in 5 year, 1 year, and 60 day chart
PPS riding upper edge of Bolinger Bands, all periods, and I expect exhaustion spike on Friday, with high of day at close, resulting in a White hammer all periods.
Fisher Transforms -- pegged at top of chart in 5 and 1 year chart, but negatively divergent in 60 day as I type this.
Williams % R -- as of today, top of chart (0.000) with Polarized Fractal Efficiency (10,5) at 107.12 as viewed in a one year chart. Historically, the last time anything close to these points occurred these last few years was on the peak of 10/27/04.
Linear Regression Channel 100% -- Pegged the top line and closed there with concentric True Strength Index (55,13) Pegged as well as viewed in 5 year, 1 year, and 60 day charts.
Stochastic Momentum, Relative Momentum multiple values -- all at the top of the chart.
Money Flow Indexes -- all pegged the top of the chart today at close.
Projection oscillators -- all values -- all pegged the top of the chart today
ROC - (-66-) pegged. others I suspect will hit come Friday
RSI, Wilder (-8-) with Inverse Fisher Transform (9.1) Flat top at top of chart.
Stochastic RSI -- LoL! Guess! (all values 11 through 235)
I'm thinking we will see a few days at these levels, perhaps that final stab on Friday, and the sideways downward motion over the next six to eight months on this one. Granted maybe a pop as high as $5.15 -$5.20 before the fork goes in it --- It just depends on how many people read this post. Ha.
I very much appreciate this web site and your trading ideas, and regret being the blacksheep contrarian to your views on END, but I just have to call this one like I see it. ---- Regards, Rabidmonk
QuoteI very much appreciate this web site and your trading ideas, and regret being the blacksheep contrarian to your views on END, but I just have to call this one like I see it. ---- Regards, Rabidmonk
Of course, thanks a lot for your post Rabidmonk, very interesting indeed. It looks like you're a pure technician, right? Well, I'm not so pure, sometimes I enter into fundamental considerations, those things that eventually make a man lose his money ;D
Anyway, I don't have a clue if you're right or not. Your analysis is too complex for me. I use just traditional technical analysis (trendlines, moving averages, volume, candlesticks), keeping it simple. I've been there, studying all indicators and looking for confirmations but I just got tired. I believe most of that stuff doesn't work anyway (no offense).
You see, the market is so unstructured, allowing a man to be so free, that if he doesn't keep it simple he gets lost with time ... and RULE 46 says «The Smarter You Are, the Longer it Takes».
But thanks for your analysis, keep them coming :)
My analysis on END is:
1) Volume was higher on the advance day and the candle was bigger than on this decline day, which was smaller and with much less volume.
2) I got a plan to follow and that plan is to hold END as long as the green line (10 day simple moving average) is above the red line (50 day simple moving average).
David, you are truly a gentleman through and through, and I appreciate the service you and this site offer. Thank you for your gracious response, and for giving this 'newbie' encouragement to post again! :)
Regards and ~bows~
Rabidmonk
Quote from: rabidmonk on August 17, 2005, 08:42:02 PM
David, you are truly a gentleman through and through, and I appreciate the service you and this site offer. Thank you for your gracious response, and for giving this 'newbie' encouragement to post again! :)
Regards and ~bows~
Rabidmonk
You're welcome Rabidmonk :D Yes, you really need to keep those complex analysis coming, it seems you were right on END, at least short term (well, of course an analysis doesn't need to be right to be interesting, or soon I would be out of a job LOL ;D)
I feel so dumb having designed such a simple plan on END ... but now I have to follow it, I really need a strong motive to change a previously made trading plan (and that change must be previous to selling - nothing on the intraday changes my opinion on a particular stock) and I don't have one on END.
So, the here comes the dumb question: did the green line closed above the red one?
Yes ! So I'll hold the stock.
The rally on END today came out of nothing, no candlestick pre-warning and low volume of only 262,600 shares. I guess this sort of thing happens when stocks are bullish :D
Green line value = $4.57 > Red line value =$3.97 => Hold END.
Hi David,
Yes indeed that rally sure burst out of nothing... I think I was off on my guesstamation that the exhaustion spike would occur on Friday, as it looks like it might be early this week instead.
The market is a fascinating beast, is it not? Consider the fact that we (you and I ) are each holding and banking on diametrically opposite issues, who, FWIW, have equally opposite TA, but with one thing in common -- negative divergences in the TA.
Here we have END going up "out of nothing", with negative divergences in the accompanying technicals, and my favorite pick, SYNX going down with opposing divergences. Neither make sense in a technical perspective unless one ponders the possibility that when things look too good to be "true" they probably are, and equally in the balance, when things look too bad to be true, they probably are, especially when the tools we use to monitor and gauge tells us something fishy got tossed into the soup! :D
I sincerely hope that you will scalp the top off this market in END, wherever it might be. ;)
Rabidmonk
Hello rabidmonk :)
Quote
The market is a fascinating beast, is it not?
Well, you know, I used to think that way too, but now, after years of taking punches and suffering I don't find it so fascinating :-\ I used to love study everything related with the markets, spent the best part of my life studying, thinking and talking almost stock market only.
Now I find trading to be a job as any other, which I make with pleasure, but not fascinating ::)
Sometimes I'm sad that I've lost some of the passion for the markets, but you know, passions are fast and furious and friendship may last forever :D
QuoteConsider the fact that we (you and I ) are each holding and banking on diametrically opposite issues, who, FWIW, have equally opposite TA, but with one thing in common -- negative divergences in the TA.
Considering this comment you've made I think of just one thing: identifying trend is the most important issue in TA. Divergences between the trend and some technical indicators are factors much below in the scale of importance. The trend is yours truly friend (your market dad and mother), divergences are just some guys you met at birthday parties or marriages and see only once or twice a year ;)
Nice posts rabidmonk, good luck with SYNX :)
Going to END, I really must be disgusted with the market, my brain does just a tiny little effort to say: «the green line is above the red line so you hold the stock David.»
I want to get serious about this trading plan on END. You know what, I don't need the price line, since my plan is based on indirect indicators. So, my END chart for you tonight is the following:
I know I had that beautiful trading plan on END, but as I've said several times, every individual stock play needs to primarily respect the global portfolio and global market analysis (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2411.new#new).
Since I believe China will enter a recession in the medium term future I also believe the oil bubble will pop soon rather than later. So I'll send END at today's open.
I don't think anyone will complain about me selling END, since it is near its highs.
David,
Very interesting you should mention the bursting of the oil bubble and global perspectives in your last post -- I've been pondering the same and intended to post last evening but was having DNS server problems with the web-site and couldn't post.
Anyway -- I'll spare everyone my lengthy diatribe and try and just gloss the highlights...
Given that ours is a world of rapidly advancing technologies, and given that it's an understood fact that oil will be veritably depleted by 2036, it stands to VERY GOOD reason that there are individuals/institutions working feverishly on alternative sources of energy that will make oil and its derivatives obsolete -- literally overnight.
Imagine the routing in the oil markets that will occur on the morning that Rabidmonk Enterprises ®© announces it has developed a SOLAR FUEL CELL that can be retrofitted to most common automobile drive trains -- that harnesses the perpetual free source of solar power. Someone will develop it, it will happen, and then the only way to sell OIL stocks will be by using the old "at market" button as they plunge in free fall.
Another thing... Arab interests know they have limited time to milk their primary customers (USA, UK, CHINA) before technology takes them and their overpriced product out of the loop. What will they sell then?? That is a question everyone should be asking themselves, in addition to the question: "What will all those Arab countries do when they are no longer a global player because they have lost the leverage of oil?" Perhaps at this point you may be smelling a rat and wondering if Osama isn't just an errand boy for a "larger" interest, whose motive is to gradually weeken us (and the rest of the world) prior to the oil leverage over us being lost. It isn't so much an issue over "religion" as it is an issue over POWER. I grant you that the Arab nations will NOT want to be destitute paupers when oil is no longer a controlling fulcrum for them. An underhanded war has already begun and we are the enemy's best customer.
Anyway, I shan't digress further, as large scale political motives aren't the thrust of your forums, but I do take those things into consideration as part of my TA, so maybe I can squeak by on this one and won't get slapped on the wrists by you guys... ;D
As to the PPS and TA of END -- it indeed looks like my timing may have been off by about one week on the arrival of the spike. If it runs hard, hot, and heavy today and tomorrow, it's just possible to see 5.30 out of it now. I'm thinking that if that spike happens on Friday and closes at the high of the day on Friday, it just might be over for this one. Then again, when you dump those 250,000 shares you're holding this morning it might put the brakes on it immediately!! :D
Regards, Rabidmonk
It appears that the "spike" I was watching for finally made it home... are my charts lying by showing an open of 5.58 this morning?
Is it possible to see a close of at least 5.64 or 5.65 today?
That would complete my vision for a true exhaustion spike. What is very strange is that I am monitoring various momentum overlays, and as the price is rising, they are falling like stones. NOT GOOD in my book. The same is true for various Fisher Transforms... suffice it to say that the TA in short term analysis looks like tossed spaghetti today. Will it resolve to be an even stronger uptrend? I have to venture the guess of "I doubt it" The PPS (with a strong close) would be far too "outside and up" of MA Envelopes and B.Bands to sustain a push beyond tomorrows open. (IMHO) --- but hey --- it's OIL ! ;)
I'm very curious to see how this resolves this afternoon.
Rabidmonk;
>:D Looks like you might start using a new tool, it's called news.When a company starts drilling a well the price normally goes up a bit and stays up until you see a downward or upward spike, (early info. from rig or company personal).Although this company will show no profits from this well for a year or more,if they do find substancial oil or gas the price will increase up to 25% for at least a week or two. This is JMHO but us news junkies try harder.
Virg
Hi Virgin, (Hhmmmmm... a rabid monk and a virgin... NOT!!!) >:D
Yes, I am familiar with the powerful tool called 'news'. I've witnessed that tool implemented many times as more astute traders have used it to exit technically over-bought positions and leave the more inexperienced bulls holding the proverbial bag.
There is certainly a point where news and "company potential" help issues, but as many will testify, and as many have witnessed -- profit taking is profit taking no matter how one slices it.
Still, despite the technical disparities and anomalies I see with END, I am intrigued to monitor it and just see where it goes. Had I owned it at the end of last week and had I witnessed that gap this morning, my finger would have CRUSHED my "SELL AT MARKET" button at the open this morning. But that's just me... I do *TRY* to buy low, sell high! ;)
Seriously, each stock in the market has its own personality, does it not? I am fascinated to see which timeframe has the most power over this issue -- the long term or the short term. ??? Your mention of 'news' is an excellent point, as 'news' is just one of the factors in play here -- how the amalgam forms remains to be seen! Anything goes for the moment with OIL stocks... has the FAT lady sung??
Best of luck and trading on this one -- let's hope the market is somehow magically profitable for everyone!
Rabid :-*
END has started its climb back up. Insiders have been buying. Guidance is strong for future quarters. Heavy institutional support. Oil and gas keep going up. This is a gift at close to $1