Today I'll keep my mouth shut. I will just present the charts, they will sing for me, just prepare your ears for the music.
GEMS long term:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=166;image)
GEMS short term:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=167;image)
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What is your take
The $3 area is a key pivot I think. Look at a 2 year weekly chart GEMS is sitting just above the 200ema which is at $2.93. If it can take out most recent high of $3.10 with vol confirmation then it could move nicely, however it may be due a pullback after so much strength from the $2 breakout point. Its on my watch list for sure
JMHO
Mike
Hello guys !
GEMS is still in a pronounced uptrend, but the two last candles suggest a loss of momentum. Probably I'll have to sell this one on Tuesday, I need to be always riding the faster horses.
... I didn't sold GEMS on Twesday, but I'm definetely going to sell today. Loss of momentum and some red candles ... take profits and move on.
GEMS
Glenayre Technologies Inc. (GEMS) The Group's principal activity is to provide communication solutions for communications service providers, including wireless, traditional and broadband carriers.
I've made a profitable trade on GEMS (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=219.0), but I sold too soon, when the stock reached a technical target.
GEMS kept on climbing and forming a pretty steady medium term bullish uptrend:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2092;image)
I was watching it rise from the sidelines, thinking I had to buy back these shares, but not taking action. Well, now that the stock closed above a medium term resistance around the $4.3 level I simply can't ignore it anymore and I need to jump on board:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2093;image)
I know what you're thinking: «but it's up so much now, shouldn't David wait for a pullback to buy?». I don't think I should wait for a pullback, it's is impossible to accurately predict if profit taking or short term weakness will hit GEMS at this point. What I know is the trend is bullish and a resistance has been broken, so I need to have a position in this stock.
For everyone thinking it just rose too much, take a look at this historical chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2094;image)
Changed your mind?
I see insiders are buying stock, I'll buy too !
(This analysis was part of the Top 10 for Tuesday (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1436.msg8539#msg8539) thread. At the end of the thread I've decided to buy GEMS (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1436.msg8646#msg8646) for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio)
I've started this new thread so later I can update the GEMS analysis everyday after the close until I sell the stock.
I'm running out of time before the opening bell and I still need to eat something, so I'll just leave this annotated chart of GEMS. Of course I won't be selling the stock today, I'm very pleased I have this stock in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
David, thanks a lot for this site. I have learned a lot from this site. This site has energized me to read something about technicals, which I find very interesting. I am a novice in the technicals, so please bear with me, if I post something wrong.
Looking at this stock, I find a negative divergence in MACD. What do you think the short term implications for this stock? Does the length of positive/negative divergence play a role? Is this negative divergence too small (a period) to worry about?
Thanks,
Mads
Thanks for your post mads88 :)
That divergence you got there, between the MACD and price, is a valid technical indication. But, a technical analyst can't consider just one or two indications, he should have many indicators pointing the same way, as confirmation.
That divergence probably is just reflecting a loss in momentum from GEMS (which is also a bearish indication), but that loss in momentum probably just reflects a deceleration in trend which was going too fast and getting away from major trendlines.
Now, what is more important, the speed of the trend or the trend itself? The trend itself.
As long as a trend remains bullish a technical analyst should hold the stock. The signs you're referring are signs the trend may reverse, but as long as a trend remains bullish a technical analyst should hold the stock. During an uptrend many times it looks just like it will reverse, but the majority of the times it just continues ;)
Considering GEMS, the bullish trend is still pretty much in place, according to the ascending blue trendline on the chart. My plan is to hold the stock until we get a close below that trendline, which today will be at $3.97.
Thanks a lot David.
It is always good to hear an expert's opinion.
Mads
Support today for GEMS at $4, don't want to see it close below that mark, or I'll have to take my loss and learn something from mads888 ;)
This one needs to recover soon and stay in the 4 range for a rebound
Down to 3.80 right now- not good
Plenty of buyers below 4, so does not see any reason to sell here.
Actually solid support exists at 3.71 and the stock went as down as 3.8. I am bullish on this one. Sold earlier due to wild swings, not doing this time.
15-Jun-05 GILSON, PETER W.
Director 50,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $3.96 per share. $198,000
15-Jun-05 BATES, DONALD S.
Director 50,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $3.96 per share. $198,000
The above result is from Yahoo.
While I really would like to hold this stock (and likely will), I am somewhat concerned about it breaking the longer term trendline. ???
Well I dont know about others but I'll be holding this baby unless it closes below 3.7 :)
Which is the support zone with the highest volume.
And seems like that the trading gods have spared GEMS by closing it above 4
This is why I don't watch or consider intraday stock price developments in my analysis. The stock broke the ascending trendline, but it only did it intraday, and that gives short term power to an expected advance (because of all the precipitated guys who sold because support was broken, they now have to come back and chase shares higher - the reason they sold is no longer valid).
The fall was a retest to a minor resistance line, now support, as you can check on the annotated chart below.
Holding GEMS.
Nice market action on GEMS, after falling below the ascending trendline on the intraday the stock managed to advance 2% yesterday. The trend is still pretty much in place, in fact, it has more validity now than before.
GEMS closed a touch below my ascending trendline, but considering the volume and the fact that the stock was up a bit after hours I need to give it a little bit more room to maneuver. You see, some times a technical analyst must adjust his trendlines and minor cuts may mean just noise.
Giving one more day of chance to GEMS, I hope the stock takes that chance.
It was wise not to sell GEMS just before a 5% advance day. Many years as a technical analyst have thought me TA is not mathematics, it is an art. A technical analyst may have to change its lines a bit as the stock price evolves, it's no good to produce and rely on static analysis.
Now GEMS could have a done more volume on this 5% day, but anyway I'll continue to hold the stock ...
GEMS couldn't hold the attack at recent highs. The trading plan is simple, hold as long as the stock closes above the ascending trendline. Sell on close if GEMS is set to close below the trendline, which today will be around $4.05.
Today I feel like to unload some of my holdings, I have too many of them ... If GEMS is set to close below $4.01 today I'll dump it.
Results will be released on August 9th: Glenayre Announces Date for Release of Second Quarter Earnings (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=3275&guid=%7B30278B8E%2DCD84%2D4CD7%2D856F%2DDEE18A50495A%7D&symb=)
I don't know why I said «sell if it closes below $4.01», since GEMS closed at $4.03 and that was below the ascending trendline.
Anyway, it closed below the ascending trendline, and my trading plan was based on GEMS uptrend, which is now in doubt. I have no more business to do with this stock, I'll sell it today at the open.
Four consecutive losses on the 3SOF portfolio, letting go of the losers to seek the winners. I was never sorry to take a small loss but I've been many times sorry, in the past, for keeping those losers.
Sold GEMS @ $4.
Changed Ticker Symbol.......
GEMS is no longer valid. It has changed to "EDCI"
The GEMS/EDCI Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.
I will leave you Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread.......
Good trading to all !
Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis
Good watchlist candidate here,,looks ready to move up : JMO
chart update