3SOF

Keep on watch

GTI showed up on my radar.Chart is showing Cup and a handle.Trailing P/E 20.25 Fwd P/E 8.96 No earning surprises for the 3 qtrs prior to the last one.But the last gave a very good surprise 22.2% to be exact.I can't seem to get the chart to post.Industrial electrical equipment is not a very Lusterious Industry but because of the technicals I think their may be a quick buck to be made here.

GrafTech Moves to 1Q Profit
Thursday May 3, 1:47 pm ET 
GrafTech Swings to 1Q Profit on Strong Sales, Stock Hits 52-Week High


PARMA, Ohio (AP) -- GrafTech International Ltd., which makes graphite- and carbon-based products, on Thursday said it moved to a profit in the first quarter as sales rose about 31 percent, sending its stock to a new 52-week high.
GrafTech reported net income of $18 million, or 17 cents per share, compared with a loss of $4.6 million, or 5 cents per share, last year. Excluding special items, GrafTech reported earnings of $30 million, or 27 cents per share, up from $6.2 million, or 7 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

Revenue jumped to $228.2 million from $174.2 million in the first quarter of 2006, driven by graphite electrode sales which increased 40 percent to $180.1 million.

Shares of GrafTech soared $1.54, or 14.8 percent, to $12.01 in afternoon trading, after earlier hitting a fresh 52-week high of $12.11. The company's stock has traded between $4.81 and $10.46 in the past year.

It's still a buy, IMHO.

Ram

SeekingAlpha
Eye on GrafTech International
Monday May 7, 9:15 am ET


Vahan Janjigian (Forbes Growth Investor) submits: GrafTech International (NYSE: GTI - News), a maker of graphite electrodes and other graphite products, operates three segments.


The Graphite Electrodes segment, which produced 78% of 2006 sales, makes and supplies high quality graphite electrodes that are used to produce steel and other ferrous and nonferrous metals. They act as conductors of electricity in electric arc furnaces (EAFs) to help generate sufficient heat to melt scrap metal, iron ore, and other raw materials. U.S. steel makers account for 18% of GTI's graphite electrode sales, but the company also sells its products in 70 other countries.

The Advanced Graphite Materials segment produced 12% of 2006 sales. It makes and sells isomolded, molded and extruded graphite products to the energy, defense, and transportation industries. These are used in continuous casting and hot press manufacturing processes. They are also used to make resistance heating elements, high temperature furnaces and crucibles, chemical processing and centrifugal casting equipment, diamond drill bits, and semiconductor components. They can also be combined with advanced flexible graphite to provide better heat management solutions in industrial applications.

The Other segment (10% of 2006 sales) makes natural graphite products including electronic thermal management solutions for use by the electronics, power generation, automotive, petrochemical, and transportation markets. It also sells carbon, semi-graphitic, and graphite refractory blocks that have thermal conductivity applications.

Higher prices for raw materials, particularly needle coke, its largest input, forced GTI to implement aggressive price increases. This caused volume to fall to 201,300 metric tons in 2005, well short of the expected 210,000 metric tons. Despite price increases the $2,846 average revenue per metric ton fell short of expectations. But volume rebounded in 2006 to 211,000 metric tons and net sales climbed 10.7% to $855 million. The gross profit margin improved 79 basis points to 29.15%. But higher employee compensation costs caused the pro forma operating profit margin to fall slightly to 5.61%. Pro forma net income from continuing operations increased 15.5% to $59 million or 53 cents per share. GAAP net income was $91.3 million or 86 cents per share versus a net loss of $125.2 million or $1.28 per share in 2005.

Rising costs for raw materials remains a key worry. The company has initiated further price increases to offset higher costs, but volume is expected to fall about 3% in 2007 as a result. Yet guidance calls for 10-12% growth in net sales, which implies that price increases will offset volume decline.

In addition GTI has secured pricing on 70-75% of its key raw materials needs, so any further cost increases should have a minimal nearterm impact on profitability. Higher selling prices should help maintain profit margins, which should also benefit from the recent sale of GTI's cathode operations. The sale eliminates a lower-margin business that had been running at a pretax loss the past two years. As a result, GTI expects income before special items to grow roughly 25%, or about twice the sales growth rate. Furthermore, proceeds from the sale of the cathode business were used to retire some of GTI's highest-interest debt obligations. This will lower interest expense in future quarters and add incrementally to earnings.

Earnings.......positive report
Chart is very strong and company is improving...low P/S ratio indicates good value...P/E is very low...value with upside here.

Recent CandleStick Analysis
Very Bullish
May-18-2007 Bullish Engulfing 

52wk Range: 4.81 - 15.37
Volume: 3,872,500
Avg Vol (3m): 1,447,630

Technicals
Record Price High
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
13.48%above 13-day MA
39.58%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,506.51 
P/E Ratio: 26.81 
PEG Ratio: 1.24167 
Next Earnings: 08/09/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Outperform

GTI on May 13th:

GTI's brief technical & fundamental analysis:

GTI has been trading sideways:

AP
GrafTech Int'l 1Q profit more than doubles on improved sales
Thursday May 1, 11:22 am ET 
GrafTech International 1st-quarter profit more than doubles on improved revenue, lower charges


PARMA, Ohio (AP) -- Graphite electrode company GrafTech International Ltd. said Thursday its first-quarter profit more than doubled on lower restructuring charges and higher prices as well as increased industrial materials and engineered solutions revenue.


For the period ended March 31, earnings surged to $38.6 million, or 34 cents per share, compared with $15.3 million, or 15 cents per share, in the previous year.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expected net income of 39 cents per share. Estimates typically exclude one-time items.

Restructuring charges declined to $152,000 from $884,000.

Quarterly revenue rose 27 percent to $290 million, from $228.2 million last year. Wall Street, on average, expected revenue of $272.1 million.

Revenue from GrafTech's industrial materials segment sales climbed 28 percent to $248.3 million, while revenue for the engineered solutions division rose 24 percent to $41.7 million.

The company also raised its full-year revenue growth forecast.

Shares of GrafTech gained $1.38, or 7 percent, to $21.03 in morning trading. The stock hit $21.96, its highest point in 8 years, earlier in the session.

*********************************************************************

52wk Range: 9.67 - 20.70
Volume: 5,703,040
Avg Vol (3m): 1,404,060
Market Cap: 2.20B
P/E (ttm): 15.71
EPS (ttm): 1.368

Technicals
Record Price High
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
11.58%above 13-day MA
23.19%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95 

Fundamentals
Earnings Surprise
Reports Earnings
Earnings Expected on May 1

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,103.43 
P/E Ratio: 14.77 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 08/07/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform

UPDATE 2-GrafTech profit doubles, raises 2008 view; shares rise
Thu May 1, 2008 11:27am EDT


May 1 (Reuters) - GrafTech International Ltd (GTI), a maker graphite electrodes, posted a two-fold increase in quarterly profit, beating Wall Street estimates, helped by higher product prices and reduced expenses, and raised its 2008 revenue outlook, sending its shares up to an eight-year high.

"We remain encouraged by global steel industry conditions and expect solid demand from our steel end markets... in 2008," CEO Craig Shular said in a statement.

The company makes graphite electrodes primarily used by steel mills, and sky-high production costs, strong demand and tight supplies have pushed global steel prices to new highs so far this year.

"They are passing through the higher raw material costs to the customers," Mark Parr an analyst with Keybanc Capital Markets said.

"Given that over 90 pct of their revenues are long-term contracts that go from year to year, the visibility of good pricing should be above average for the remainder of the year," Parr added.

Parr has a "buy" rating on the stock.

Graftech forecast 2008 sales growth of about 16 percent to 18 percent, up from its previous forecast of 12 percent to 14 percent.

The company posted a revenue of $1.00 billion for fiscal 2007. 
Analysts were expecting revenue of $1.13 billion for the period, according to Reuters Estimates.

In the latest quarter, the increased raw material costs were partly offset by higher prices and expansion to high growth markets such as solar, the company said in a statement.

First-quarter net income rose to $38.6 million, or 34 cents a share, from $15.3 million, or 15 cents a share from a year ago.

After adjusting for special items, income from continuing operations rose to 53 cents a share from 27 cents a share.

Sales rose 27 percent to $290 million.

Analysts were expecting earnings of 38 cents a share, before items, on revenue of $268.0 million, according to Reuters Estimates.

"We successfully decreased selling and administrative expense as a percent of sales by two full percentage points year-over-year," the CEO said.

Graftech shares were trading up over 7 percent at $21.03 in morning trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

AP
GrafTech Int'l lifts its full-year revenue growth forecast
Thursday May 1, 11:29 am ET 
GrafTech International boosts full-year revenue forecast above analysts' expectations


PARMA, Ohio (AP) -- GrafTech International Ltd. raised its full-year revenue growth forecast Thursday, after reporting its first-quarter profit more than doubled.
The graphite electrode company now expects annual sales to climb 16 percent to 18 percent, up from its 12 percent to 14 percent growth outlook.

GrafTech reported 2007 sales of $1 billion, which would imply 2008 revenue between $1.16 billion and $1.18 billion.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, predict full-year revenue of $1.15 billion.

Shares of GrafTech International gained $1.35, or 6.9 percent, to $21 in morning trading. The stock hit $21.96, its highest point in 8 years, earlier in the session.

I expect the stock will go down to $14-$15 after earning release.

Take my word.

Quote from: wpSoft2008 on May 01, 2008, 02:53:58 PM
I expect the stock will go down to $14-$15 after earning release.

Take my word.

waiting... :-X

Volume increasing as GTI hits a new high

Day's Range: 23.88 - 24.50
52wk Range: 11.50 - 24.50
Volume: 2,755,488
Avg Vol (3m): 1,867,170
Market Cap: 2.48B
P/E (ttm): 15.45
EPS (ttm): 1.5

Technicals
Record Price High

Last Price Quote is:
9.10%above 13-day MA
25.57%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 96 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,269.72 
P/E Ratio: 14.18 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 08/07/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform

This stock did not follow the trend it had after earning release in previous three quarters.

I have been waiting for its pull back in order to take position.

But this time its shares never went down.  I am still waiting for it to  pull back.

Good company and I made good money bought at $14.00 and sold it at $20 before earning release.

Investor's Business Daily
Electrode Maker's Products In Demand In Red-Hot Steel Industry
Wednesday May 21, 5:57 pm ET
Steve Watkins


The demand for steel from China and other emerging markets is soaring. Steel makers can't crank out enough of it to keep up, so they jack up prices every chance they get.
GrafTech International (NYSE:GTI - News) is one of the companies that's profiting from the steel surge. That's because it gets more than 80% of its sales from steel companies.


GrafTech makes electrical gear used in steel production as well as in solar and nuclear energy production. Its main steel product is a graphite electrode that steel makers use to conduct electricity so that they can melt scrap steel and other raw materials.

The Parma, Ohio, firm has gained mostly from growth in global steel production. Electric arc furnace steel production, the type that uses Graf-Tech's products, has grown by 5% a year over the past five years. The more steel that gets made, the more of GrafTech's electrodes are needed. They are consumed in the process of making steel.

"The electric arc furnace growth is really driving the company," said Mark Parr, managing director at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Industry Leader

GrafTech is the leader in its field, Parr says. It has just over 20% of the global market. A German firm, SGL Carbon, has just under 20%. The next two players combined barely make up 10%, Parr says.

Pricing power has given GrafTech a big lift. Parr points to the tighter availability of raw materials (mainly a product called needle coke used in making graphite electrodes) as the driver of higher prices. That limits supply even as demand rises.

"The market has absorbed the price increases," Parr said. "We saw this emerge in 2007. It's accelerating in 2008, and it'll probably accelerate further in '09."

JPMorgan Chase analyst Michael Gambardella says price hikes are the force behind GrafTech's improved sales growth outlook this year of 16% to 18%, up from 12% to 14% earlier this year. Most of that pricing power stems from its graphite electrode product used in making steel, Gambardella said in a recent report.

"We are encouraged by this price hike and the industry's apparent willingness to be more aggressive on pricing," Gambardella wrote.

Steel isn't the only end market for GrafTech's products. Its engineered solutions unit provides graphite-based products to the solar and nuclear energy industries, among others. That group's first-quarter sales soared 24% and operating income quadrupled. But that makes up just 15% of sales. The best chance for that unit to be a key growth contributor could be several years or even decades away, Parr says.

For now, steel is the key. It helped drive first-quarter sales up 27% to $290 million. Earnings soared 96% to 53 cents per share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect this year's profits to jump 41% to $1.89 per share. They see 13% growth next year, to $2.14.

Things weren't so rosy for Graf-Tech a few years ago. Its debt load was huge, costs were high and its end markets were struggling. Worse, members of GrafTech's prior management team had pleaded guilty to their role in an industry price-fixing scheme in the 1990s.

Fast-forward to today. Chief Executive Craig Shular and his team have trimmed the number of graphite electrode plants GrafTech runs from 10 to five, while slashing the work force from 5,500 to 2,550. The plants it has are larger and in cheaper areas than the previous plants. They sold weak operating units and regained customer confidence. Long-term debt is down to a manageable $304 million, less than half what it was at the end of 2006.

The firm has also cut costs. It took 10% out of its overhead last year and held it steady in the first quarter this year, even as sales rose. That led to swelling free cash flow that helped GrafTech pay down its sky-high debt.

"There's been quite a remarkable turnaround in the financial condition of the company," Parr said.

Now, the firm is ready to turn those improvements into more growth.

"All the heavy lifting that's been done the last two years has positioned us to grow the company," CEO Shular said in a conference call to discuss first-quarter earnings. He wasn't available to comment for this story.

Gambardella expects GrafTech to look at investing cash flow in both internal growth prospects and in acquisitions. Shular agreed, crediting the strong balance sheet.

"We've got the luxury for the first time in many, many years to have business open on that (acquisition) front," Shular said. "So, we are looking for great opportunities that would allow us to grow our portfolio."

Possible Risks

A few factors could slow Graf-Tech. For one, rising raw material and energy costs could hamper its future growth, Gambardella says.

GrafTech gets its main raw material, needle coke, from one supplier -- ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP - News). That's a concern, Parr says. It could affect costs or supply levels. But GrafTech has long-term contracts and the two firms have a strong relationship, he adds.

Parr is less concerned about Graf-Tech's reliance on the steel industry. That group has been cyclical in the past. But Parr says that's changing. He notes that steel's growth has topped the global economy's growth in the past seven years. And the steel industry is earning record profits now, even as the economy's growth is slowing.

"The market is starting to look at the industry as less cyclical," Parr said.

CHICAGO, May 27, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices. Couple that with the proven benefits of upgrades in ratings from brokerage firms and you have a strategy that delivered a +23.3 return in 2006. Four stocks meeting this screen's exclusive criteria are: Barnes Group Inc. (B, Trade), Celanese Corp. (CE, Trade), Badger Meter Inc. (BMI, Trade), GrafTech International Ltd. (GTI, Trade). View the entire list of stocks for the Upgrades and Revisions Profit Track at http://at.zacks.com/?id=1844

Here are details on four companies currently identified by the Upgrades and Revisions Profit Track:

Barnes Group Inc. (B, Trade) reported first-quarter results on May 2. Year-over-year net profits improved to $33.4 million, or 60 cents per share, from $27.7 million. Analysts were expecting earnings of 53 cents per share. B satisfies this screen's parameters with a Zacks #1 Rank and a historical EPS growth rate of 26.4% over the past five years. B increased it's fiscal 2008 guidance and expects to generate earnings in the range of $2.30 to $2.39 per share. Barnes Group is an international aerospace and industrial components manufacturer.

Celanese Corp. (CE, Trade) is a leading global producer of value-added industrial chemicals. The company had a good first quarter, reporting year-over-year revenues that increased to $1.8 billion from $1.5 billion. CE also raised its fiscal 2008 year guidance to between $3.60 and $3.85 per share, compared to its earlier outlook of between $3.40 and $3.85 per share. Moreover, this Zacks #1 Rank delivered an EPS surprise of 11.58% in its most recent quarter and has five-year historical EPS growth of 20.19%.

Badger Meter Inc. (BMI, Trade) is a Zacks #1 Rank company that has earned its place on this profit track with five-year historical EPS growth of 19.27% and an EPS surprise of 28.12%. In the first quarter, BMI's year-over-year net profits increased to $6.02 million from $2.57 million. BMI manufactures and markets flow measurement and control products, serving water utilities, municipalities and industrial customers worldwide. In late April, BMI announced that it will be moving its stock listing to NYSE.

GrafTech International Ltd. (GTI, Trade) qualifies for this profit track with historical EPS growth of 53.74% over the past five years and a recent EPS surprise of 39.47%. (This screen calls for five-year historical EPS growth greater than 17% and an EPS surprise of greater than 10% in its most recent quarter.) GTI's first quarter EPS amounted to 53 cents, compared to 27 cents a year earlier. Analysts were expecting earnings of 38 cents per share. This Zack's #1 Rank is a global company with more than 120 years of experience in the carbon and graphite industry.

Discover all the current stocks currently on the Upgrades and Revisions Profit Track at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1869

About Profit Tracks

What is a "Profit Track"? Each Profit Track is a successful stock picking strategy with proven results through the Bear Market of 2001-2002 and the Bull run started in 2003. On Zacks.com we have created these nine unique screens to offer investors great strategies to potentially outperform the market in the years ahead. In 2006, the Low Price Stocks strategy was the top performing Profit Track with a return of +56.5% followed by the Discounted Fundamental screen with a +34% return. To see all nine strategies along with philosophy, past performance and current stocks, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=1838.

All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the performance, then you should start a free trial to this powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research Wizard free trial offer and our new special report "Top 10 Stock Screening Strategies" at http://at.zacks.com/?id=4616

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=4617

Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

SOURCE: Zacks.com


Zacks.com 
Contact: Alla Kushner 
Phone: 312-265-9208 
Email: [email protected] 
Visit: www.Zacks.com 

Copyright Business Wire 2008
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

52wk Range: 11.50 - 26.09
Volume: 3,434,890
Avg Vol (3m): 2,054,430
Market Cap: 2.77B
P/E (ttm): 17.24
EPS (ttm): 1.555

Technicals
Record Price High
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
11.03%above 13-day EMA
29.05%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 97 

Fundamentals
Coverage Initiated: Buy

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,589.69 
P/E Ratio: 16.18 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 08/07/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

Volume supported trend...

Popped up on technical screen - the story behind the stock: company in debt engages in selective downsizing, focusing on retention of more productive units - with improved pricing. Target of scandal with price fixing several years ago. With improved bottom line pays down debt to one half prior amount, resulting in greatly improved money-flow.

Produces electrodes used to melt iron/steel in steel production which presently is in steady uptrend since 2000. With overhaul of company, more favorable demand and pricing the company is poised for growth profitably, with the downside of prior mishaps. They will need to maintain efficiency if they grow through acquisition.

Quote from: wpSoft2008 on May 15, 2008, 10:20:40 PM
This stock did not follow the trend it had after earning release in previous three quarters.

I have been waiting for its pull back in order to take position.

But this time its shares never went down.  I am still waiting for it to  pull back.

Good company and I made good money bought at $14.00 and sold it at $20 before earning release.

We might see a pullback as people take some of their profits from this one.

A pullback...
Volume supported trend.

Volume: 1,215,649
Avg Vol (3m): 2,085,900
Market Cap: 2.70B
P/E (ttm): 16.84
EPS (ttm): 1.56
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
Close Below the 13-day MA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
1.40%above 13-day MA
10.32%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 96 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,685.68 
P/E Ratio: 16.78 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 08/07/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

Below are the 6 month and a 4 year chart.......

Earnings forecast.......
TA plus earnings forecast make this a buy. Price Objective......14


Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
Close Above the 13-day MA

Last Price Quote is:
12.03%above 13-day MA
12.60%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 90 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $953.11 
P/E Ratio: 4.36 
PEG Ratio: 0.372727 
Next Earnings: 02/19/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

Poised to Pop: GrafTech (GTI).......
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at GTI.

GrafTech's beaten-down price as a historic opportunity:
Slowdown has spooked this stock down into just stupid multiples. A return to multiples even on the bottom end of the historical range will blow this one out of water, even if steel is a little sluggish in 2009.

The steel companies all have suffered recently...
However, steel inventory is down and everyone must order graphite electrodes again. [GrafTech] beat the expectation in Q4 and expects a small loss in Q1. They have done the necessary cutbacks and Q2 should be a turnaround quarter.

What do you think about GrafTech, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard.
It doesn't take much research to know that this thing can and will run big time over the next few years...

52wk Range: 3.55 - 27.98
Volume: 2,216,226
Avg Vol (3m): 2,178,540
Market Cap: 1.01B
P/E (ttm): 4.74
EPS (ttm): 1.79
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
13-day EMA Cross Above 50-day MA
Gap Up

Last Price Quote is:
17.96%above 13-day MA
19.44%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 37 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,010.92 
P/E Ratio: 4.75 
PEG Ratio: 1.81538 
Next Earnings: 04/30/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Buy


Below are the 6 month and 4 year charts...

updated chart look...

updated chart look...
Golden Cross looming!