INSIDER & RULE 144 TRANSACTIONS REPORTED - LAST TWO YEARS
Date Insider Shares Type Transaction Value*
22-Aug-05 MARSH, JOHN O.JR.
Director 5,000 Direct Purchase at $0.9758 per share. $4,879
22-Aug-05 EVANS, GARY C.
Director 50,000 Direct Purchase at $0.9748 per share. $48,740
15-Aug-05 SIMS, NELSON M
Chief Executive Officer 250,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0.87 per share. $217,500
15-Aug-05 EVANS, GARY C.
Director 50,000 Direct Purchase at $0.88 per share. $44,000
12-Aug-05 EVANS, GARY C.
Director 50,000 Direct Purchase at $0.9369 per share. $46,845
10-Aug-05 ODONNELL, DENIS M
Director 50,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) N/A
10-Aug-05 HAGE, RAYMOND JOSEPH
Chief Operating Officer 75,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) N/A
10-Aug-05 SINGHVI, RAHUL
Chief Executive Officer 125,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) N/A
20-Jul-05 EVANS, GARY C.
Director 50,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) N/A
4-May-05 HAGE, RAYMOND JOSEPH
Vice President 33,784 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $1.48 per share. $50,000
4-May-05 SINGHVI, RAHUL
Chief Operating Officer 33,784 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $1.48 per share. $50,000
4-May-05 GENGE, DENNIS W.
Chief Financial Officer 33,784 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $1.48 per share. $50,000
MarketWatch
Market Pulse: Novavax: study shows avian flu vaccine effective
Thursday August 25, 7:17 am ET
By Dan Burrows
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Novavax Inc. on Thursday reported positive pre-clinical results for its vaccine for pandemic influenza. The Malvern, Pa.-based biopharmaceutical company said a study demonstrated that its novel virus-like particle flu vaccine is effective in protecting animals exposed to avian flu.
Edit of the Thread Heading, "NVAX (Positive Trial) & Recent Insider Buying"
These types of messages with the Thread Heading become out of date as time passes.
Thank You,
setravis
Just added $ 1.22.
This news is solid, IMO.
Isn't it dangerous and not too useful to buy after the news already made the stock soar to 55% pre-market and then pull back to 30% at the end of the day? Just curious on your opinion.
Two more insider buyings from CEO of the company. It was reported on 23- aug 2005
150,000 shares in open market at 0.9527
http://www.secform4.com/insider/showhistory.php?cik=1000694
welll...NVAX up today 50% !!!!!!!!
by now and by happy....forever ;D
there is already a thread. Can you request Administrator to merge your comments to it?
Anyone answer for following question.... Is it time to sell this stock or still keep it? ( SETRAVIS, FILL THE GAP, RAMSBURG, DAVID) Opinion necessary... The gain here is 67% in 1 day with highest ever volume....
Advices needed....
Lets merge the threads.
This is the original thread...
Quote from: fill_the_gap on August 25, 2005, 12:40:17 PM
Just added $ 1.22.
This news is solid, IMO.
should have followed, applaud. good call. think too late to get in?
I also added at 1.26,, fill_the_gap what shall be exit point?
Going to sell most and let some ride depending on tomorrows trading.
Great day ! ;)
Don't know if you're still holding this but here's some news out today and you should check out the insider buying.My opinion ,This is going to be a big player in the future,how long only time will tell.Good luck,wrangler 8)
AP
Novavax Up on Wave Biotech Vaccine Pact
Tuesday September 13, 3:06 pm ET
Novavax Shares Rise After Signing Collaboration With Wave Biotech to Make Vaccines on Commercial Scale
MALVERN, Pa. (AP) -- Shares of Novavax Inc. jumped Tuesday after the biopharmaceutical company said it would collaborate with Wave Biotech LLC to develop a way to produce the Virus-Like Particle avian flu vaccine on a commercial scale.
ADVERTISEMENT
Novavax shares were up 14 cents, or 9.3 percent, to $1.65 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq after being up 22 percent earlier in the day. Shares traded at nearly four times their average volume.
So far, Novavax's VLP technology has only shown that it protects animals from avian flu. The VLP imitates a virus to elicit an immune response but cannot infect cells because it lacks the genetic material of a virus, unlike standard vaccines.
Following publication of the animal data, Novavax shares more than doubled in less than a week hitting a recent high of $2.56 Aug. 30. Company shares have fallen from a 52-week high of $4.10 in October and recently hit a 52-week low of 70 cents before rebounding. Shares are down 49 percent on the year so far.
Financial details of the collaboration were not disclosed.
I bought in yesterday at 1.63. Trying to accumulate on dips.
Two reasons why you should load up on NVAX. This news articles out today on The bird flu.
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/09/14/MTFH14176_2005-09-14_17-51-00_KWA448364.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050914/hl_afp/unsummitbushhealth_050914185316%3b_ylt=A9FJqapwlChDkdoALg_tOrgF%3b_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
I think Bush may just prove to have a little sense.
Good luck,I think you might have a winner here.I would jump on the train to but all my funds is tied up in other stocks.
wrangler
i sold it on 2.52 on august 31. ;D.. Currently waiting for FNSR to do same thing...then probably will load with this.......I would appreciate if anyone can do a TA on this. ( Breakdown, rise points, volumes, patterns) ??? I think its also time to find another gap up stock to share with the community.......
Let me do some more digging...
Dhiraj
Hmm something going on with NVAX here. A nice day today on average volume, I guess a reaction to all the bird flu news we have seen E.G UN Discussion on what can be done, and headlines such as 'Vietnam to Import 260m More Doses of Bird Flu Vaccine' Also look at the SVA thread for more related stories. Now with a close near HOD, then a jump in after hours from $1.66 to $1.75 on a few K shares. Might just be a blip but might also signal something cooking and ready to happen Tuesday. So lets see
Chart is shaping up some after hefty pullback from recent news inspired spike, NVAX looks like it may represent a nice longer term play on the bird flu story as well as right now a short term reversal of the pullback to support.
One of the top stories in Yahoo!News mentains Novartis this morning.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050925/hl_afp/healthflupharmasector_050925233419
I'm in again @ $1.69 pre-market.
Remember this was a top gainer on the Nasdaq a few weeks ago 70%.
SVA should rally too!
poorman1
Mistake again Novartis is not NOVAVAX. Still NVAX may rally.
I apologize.
poorman1
So for any of you who are following NVAX out there, things seem to be shaping up for a nice upside break.
As Aussietrader's TA showed, there appears to be a couple of ascending support lines that it was running down to - these have recently crossed over and we are fast approaching the end of an ascending triangle, with resistance at 1.75.
Depending on which one it is, the short shallow one or the longer, steeper one, these have a technical tarrget of either ~$2.75 or ~$2.25. Either way, quite a nice gainer if it works out :D
Methinks I might go in first thing tomorrow morning and see where she blows - ooh arr!! (soory too much pirate grog :P
the flying scotsman
in today at 1.83
look for monday to strenghen. i have watching this one since it's big climb on the 29/8
think it is set top move ahead imho
maxi
Great day for NVAX. Volume and price action, gotta love it. I plan on filling a position in on Monday's open.
TA:
future barriors:
1. Fill the gap at 2.05
2. Close above the open price on 8/30/05 of 2.39 to complete a G-pattern.
Sell: if close below 1.45.
-fousc
good it analyzes, I am with you
the starting point started in 1.75 ... the limit is the sky.
Holding 5 k shares @ 1.47
Interesting week in prospect. Need to take out the 200ema on daily chart. My weekly chart gives me a $4 target zone (in time) ;)
Looks like NVAX will open Monday +6% right at the 200ema $1.85, this would be good as no gap on the chart is introduced becuase the Friday high was $1.91.
Interesting week in prospect. Need to take out the 200ema on daily chart. My weekly chart gives me a $4 target zone (in time) ;)
Quote
hi aussie trader ,
why are our 200 ma in different places?
could you enlighten me ?
thanks ,
maxi
Hey Rick,
I use 200ema and sma on my charts
200sma = $1.73
200ema = $1.85
NVAX couldn't break that resistance today
thanks aussie trader,
what do you think about nvax . it seems to be rising every day . would like to see it move above the last big candle on the 29th aug. it is gradualy moving . i don't know much about the fundamentals if any one has looked at the fund. please let us know.
thanks
happy trading
maxi
It seems a lot of stocks having to do with viral infections are on the rise. SVA is moving quite well. So I was doing some searching for others that may be related. One was HEB, which I see was posted by saffeysite1. Another is AVII, NVAX, SIGA (low volume). There may be other people doing the same searches and buying on speculation of an epedemic.
waiting for 200 MA to be taken out ... pull back to the middle of BB a little bit support look strong around 1.44 and have little triangle break out. hopefully this will run soon. everything look good at this point. JMHO
Quote from: AussieTrader on October 03, 2005, 09:29:02 AM
Looks like NVAX will open Monday +6% right at the 200ema $1.85, this would be good as no gap on the chart is introduced becuase the Friday high was $1.91.
NVAX is at it again pre market bidding up past the 200ema, on decent pre volume. Maybe today it will hold onto a breakout.
hi aussie trader,
or anyone else that might answer this question that is on my mind.
when the stock is up in the pre market and trading. i notice it is either buying or selling .
on my scottrade ticker it is all sells for nvax nearly 400k shares as i write . does this mean it is more likely to fill the gap as opposed to when you see all green buying?
love anyones opinion on this.
thanks
maxi ???
Quotewhen the stock is up in the pre market and trading. i notice it is either buying or selling .
on my scottrade ticker it is all sells for nvax nearly 400k shares
Someone has to buy the share that was sold, the question is will demand outstrip supply or vice versa, that will determine whether the stock will go up or down.
hi aussie trader ,
well yes, that is always the case someone is selling , someone is buying.
but the question is on a gap up in the morning when you see more selling than buying: ie: sometimes my ticker shows all red as in nvax this morning -a lot of selling- or as is the case with other stocks i have seen gap up my ticker shows green - a lot of buying- how does this correlate with a gap filling or a gap moving forward and not filling?
thanks again,
maxi ???
OK I understand where you are coming from now.
Don't know is my answer ;) I tend not to watch L2, just the charts, but I see what you mean bigger numbers on the ASK. Usually a raft of sellers depresses the price.
As it appears there is no news (other than other Avian plays being active this AM, also bio seems active too) We will have to wait for market open to see the real market sentiment.
thanks aussie trader,
maybe someone knows some info on this . i noticed a few days agao when fuel gaped up huge it was all buying ( all green on my ticker) and that came down to close the gap.
so , i suppose as david said if the stock market was as easy as that everyone would be winning.
thanks ,
happy trading
maxi
looks like gap might be filled,
not a lot of action.
maxi
Over $2 on BIG volume !
oops! i was wrong again,,,,,,,,,,,,,lol
maxi
the rocket go to the moonnnnnn
I picked up some NVAX and HEB this morning. With all of the coverage the avian flu is getting in the media, I really believe that the run is just beginning for these two companies.
Good morning !
I've had an internet connection problem all morning and had to come to Ramsburg's house to make the updates and recommendations, so I don't have much time to write this one. I'll do a better job on my first update after the close.
The reasoning is pretty much similar to the one you can read on HEB's thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3042.0).
I'm buying NVAX at today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
hi david,
i bought this a few days back at 1.83 had been watching it since it's big candle on 8/29
great to have you in .
thanks
maxi ;D
Bought NVAX @ $2.12 for the 3 Stocks On Fire Portfolio.
Another good call. Bought @ $2.02 on morning dip.
Thanks guys!
Quote from: LiveLife on October 06, 2005, 10:27:27 AM
Another good call. Bought @ $2.02 on morning dip.
Thanks guys!
Good price you got there ;)
Nice gains this morning. Good call!
Here's more news update on Avian bird flu:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051006/ap_on_he_me/us_avian_flu;_ylt=Ah0JuKdkNWCP6.4LaA3j5iCs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3czJjNGZoBHNlYwM3NTE-
I'm in NVAX at 2.25..
Institutional money managers are buying!
Some highlights from the article LiveLife posted:
«Leavitt is traveling to Asia to shore up international cooperation should bird flu mutate to easily infect people.
To further that goal, more than 65 countries and international organizations were to participate in discussions Thursday at the State Department about preparations for the possibility of worsening bird flu.»
«As for treatment, HHS last month began spending $100 million for the first large-scale production of a bird flu vaccine. But the department has been criticized for only stockpiling enough of the anti-flu drug Tamiflu for several million people. The Senate last week passed legislation that would increase those purchases by $3 billion.»
There's no doubt there will be strong demand from around th world to any medicine that can prevent or cure the Bird Flu Virus. This will happen for sure, not if the Bird Flu really outbreaks.
So this group is a sure thing investment, I believe.
NVAX is on that group, so I want to buy and hold some shares for the coming months. I feel a breakout of the recent highs is looming and can happen anytime soon.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6446;image)
David, once again, nice pick with HEB!
I think HEB and NVAX are going to be a nice pair with Avian bird flu.
I bought 50%/50% (HEB/NVAX) this morning.
Article mentions NVAX as one of the Avian flu players (scroll down to the bottom of the article). I own a lot of NVAX and HEB, and expect the media coverage to pick up even more over the coming days. Based on what I've researched so far, the fear over the real possibility of a pandemic is not going away anytime soon -- they may conclude soon that there will be one, but will not be able to rule anything out in the near future. Further, the government is going to fund the stockpiling of the vaccines now, regardless of whether this strain of the bird flu turns into the human to human pandemic. HEB and NVAX are both well positioned to help: HEB makes a product that increases the effectiveness of Tamiflu by as much as 300%, while NVAX has a unique process for the mass production of a vaccine (the biggest concern amongst officials right now appears to be the need to find a way to quickly mass produce a stockpile).
Anyway, here is the link and text to the article -- good luck all, and lets hope that we don't have to actually put the stockpiled vaccine to use.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=CHO20051004&articleId=1041
Martial Law and the Avian Flu Pandemic
By Michel Chossudovsky
October 4, 2005
The threat of the avian flu pandemic is real. Until recently, national governments and the WHO have dismissed the seriousness of the crisis. The public has been misinformed. The issue has been barely mentioned by the media.
Why all of a sudden is avian flu on the presidential agenda?
The issue was placed on the agenda of the President's White House Press Conference (October 4, 2005). There was nothing spontaneous in the White House journalist's question to President Bush, which explicitly pointed to a role for the country's "defense assets" in the case of a pandemic.
We are not dealing with an off-the-cuff statement. Both the question as well as Bush's response calling for a greater role of the Military, had been prepared in advance:
QUESTION: Mr. President, you've been thinking a lot about pandemic flu and the risks in the United States if that should occur.
I was wondering, Secretary Leavitt has said that first responders in the states and local governments are not prepared for something like that. To what extent are you concerned about that after Katrina and Rita?
And is that one of the reasons you're interested in the idea of using defense assets to respond to something as broad and long-lasting as a flu might be?
BUSH: Yes. Thank you for the question.
I am concerned about avian flu. I'm concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world.
BUSH: I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean. I tried to get a better handle on what the decision-making process would be by reading Mr. Barry's book on the influenza outbreak in 1918. I would recommend it.
The policy decisions for a president in dealing with an avian flu outbreak are difficult.
One example: If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you, then, enforce a quarantine?
It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu.
BUSH: And who best to be able to effect a quarantine?
One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move. So that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have.
I noticed the other day, evidently, some governors didn't like it. I understand that. I was the commander in chief of the National Guard and proudly so. And, frankly, I didn't want the president telling me how to be the commander in chief of the Texas Guard.
But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate. And one such catastrophe or one such challenge could be an avian flu outbreak.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
BUSH: Wait a minute, this is an important subject.
Secondly, during my meetings at the United Nations, not only did I speak about it publicly, I spoke about it privately to as many leaders as I could find, about the need for there to be awareness, one, of the issue and two, reporting -- rapid reporting to WHO, so that we can deal with a potential pandemic.
The reporting needs to be not only on the birds that have fallen ill, but also on tracing the capacity of the virus to go from bird to person to person. That's when it gets dangerous: when it goes bird, person, person.
BUSH: And we need to know on a real-time basis as quickly as possible the facts so that the world scientific community can analyze the facts and begin to deal with it.
Obviously, the best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and keep it isolated in the region in which it begins.
As you know, there's been a lot of reporting of different flocks that have fallen ill with the H5N1 virus. And we've also got some cases of the virus being transmitted to a person, and we're watching very carefully.
Thirdly, the development of a vaccine.
BUSH: I've spent time with Tony Fauci on the subject.
Obviously, it would be helpful if we had a breakthrough in the capacity to develop a vaccine that would enable us to feel comfortable here at home, that not only would first responders be able to be vaccinated, but as many Americans as possible, and people around the world.
But, unfortunately, we're just not that far down the manufacturing process. And there's a spray, as you know, that can maybe help arrest the spread of the disease, which is in relatively limited supply.
So one of the issues is how do we encourage the manufacturing capacity of the country, and maybe the world, to be prepared to deal with the outbreak of a pandemic?
BUSH: In other words, can we surge enough production to be able to help deal with the issue?
I take this issue very seriously, and I appreciate you bringing it to our attention.
The people of the country ought to rest assured that we're doing everything we can. We're watching it. We're careful. We're in communications with the world.
I'm not predicting an outbreak. I'm just suggesting to you that we better be thinking about it. And we are. And we're more than thinking about it, we're trying to put plans in place.
And one of the plans -- back to where your original question came -- was, you know, if we need to take some significant action, how best to do so. And I think the president ought to have all options on the table to understand what the consequences are -- all assets on the table, not options -- assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant. (White House Press Conference, 4 October, 2005, italics added)
Militarization of Public Health
The statement of President Bush suggests the enactment of Martial Law in the case of an avian flu outbreak. Martial Law could also be established, using the pretext of an outbreak of avian flu in foreign countries and its potential impacts on the US.
In other words, the Military rather than the country's civilian health authorities would be put in charge.
A decision to put the Military in charge of a public health emergency spells disaster, as evidenced by the intervention of the Military in hurricane relief in Louisiana and Southern Texas. (See http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=newsHighlights&newsId=29
The pandemic is being presented to public opinion as an issue of National Security, with a view to triggering the militarization of civilian institutions in blatant violation of the Posse Comitatus Act.
The statement of President Bush with regard to the avian flu pandemic bears a marked resemblance to an earlier statement, also at a Press Conference, in the wake of Hurricane Rita, during which the President and Commander in Chief called for the Military to become the "lead agency" in disaster relief.
BUSH ".....The other question, of course, I asked, was, is there a circumstance in which the Department of Defense becomes the lead agency. Clearly, in the case of a terrorist attack, that would be the case, but is there a natural disaster which -- of a certain size that would then enable the Defense Department to become the lead agency in coordinating and leading the response effort. That's going to be a very important consideration for Congress to think about. (Italics added)
(Press Conference, 25 Sept 2005
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=BUS20050925&articleId=1004 )
The hidden agenda consists in using the threat of a pandemic and/or the plight of a natural disaster as a pretext to establish military rule, under the facade of a "functioning democracy".
What Bush's statements suggest is that Congress should enact legislation which will, in practice suspend Constituional government and allow the Military to intervene in civilian affairs in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act. The latter, however, while still on the books, is in practice already defunct.
(See Frank Morales at http://globalresearch.ca/articles/MOR309A.html ).
Legislation inherited from the Clinton administration, not to mention the post 9/11 Patriot Acts I and II, "blurs the line between military and civilian roles". It allows the military to intervene in judicial and law enforcement activities even in the absence of an emergency situation.
In 1996, legislation was passed which allowed the military to intervene in the case of a national emergency (e.g.. a terrorist attack). In 1999, Clinton's Defense Authorization Act (DAA) extended those powers (under the 1996 legislation) by creating an "exception" to the Posse Comitatus Act, which permits the military to be involved in civilian affairs "regardless of whether there is an emergency".
(See ACLU at http://www.aclu.org/NationalSecurity/NationalSecurity.cfm?ID=8683&c=24 )
Despite this 1999 "exception" to the Posse Comitatus Act", which effectively invalidates it, both the Pentagon and Homeland Security, have been actively lobbying Congress for the outright repeal of the 1878 legislation.
( See Michel Chossudovsky, http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO504B.html )
To achieve public support for the Military to become "the lead agency", the Bush administration is not only resorting to the usual counter-terrorism justification.
Other supportive criteria are being developed to justify military rule. In this regard, at the height of Hurricane Katrina, meetings were held under the auspices of US Northern Command, involving the participation of Bush, Rumsfeld and Chertoff, to examine the role of the military in disaster relief. (See http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=CHO20050924&articleId=991
Spiraling Defense Budget
According to the Wall Street Journal (Oct 1, 2005), the Bush administration plans to ask Congress for an estimated $6-10 billion "to stockpile vaccines and antiviral medications as part of its plans to prepare the U.S. for a possible flu pandemic"
This commitment of the administration has not, however, resulted in an expansion of the nation's public health budget. In fact quite the opposite. Consistent with its role as "lead agency", more than half of the money earmarked for the program is slated to be handed over to the Pentagon.
An amendment to the defense-spending bill in the Senate would earmark $3.9 billion "to prepare the U.S. for a flu pandemic".
In other words, what we are dealing with is a process of militarization of the civilian budget. Civilian social sector budgets are now being transferred to the Department of Defense. The money for a public health program is controlled by the Department of Defense, under the rules of DoD procurement.
"The US Senate voted yesterday to provide $4 billion for antiviral drugs and other measures to prepare for a feared influenza pandemic, but whether the measure would clear Congress was uncertain.
The Senate attached the measure to a $440 billion defense-spending bill for 2006, according to the Associated Press (AP). But the House included no flu money in its version of the defense bill, and a key senator said he would try to keep the funds out of the House-Senate compromise version. The Senate is expected to vote on the overall bill next week.
Almost $3.1 billion of the money would be used to stockpile the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu), and the rest would go for global flu surveillance, development of vaccines, and state and local preparedness, according to a Reuters report. The government currently has enough oseltamivir to treat a few million people, with a goal of acquiring enough to treat 20 million"
(CIDRAP, http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/sep3005avian.html )
Multibillion Financial Bonanza for the BioTech Conglomerates
The threat of the avian flu pandemic will result in multibillion dollar earnings for the pharmaceutical and biotech industry.
In this regard, a number of major pharmaceutical companies including GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi-Aventis, California based Chiron Corp, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc, Novavax and Wave Biotech, Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche Holding, have positioned themselves in the procurement of vaccines in case of an avian 'flu outbreak. Maryland-based biotechnology company MedImmune which produces "an inhaled flu vaccine" has also positioned itself to develop a vaccine against the H5N1 avian flu.
(Although it has no expertise in the avian flu virus, one of the major actors in the vaccine business, on contract to the Pentagon, is Bioport, a company which is part owned by the Carlyle Group, which is closely linked to the Bush Cabinet with Bush Senior on its board of directors.)
Michel Chossudovsky is Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG). He is the author of a America's "War on Terrorism", Global Research, September 2005.
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This was Institutional managers buy/sell activity today for NVAX by Lycos I-Watch. As you can see, they were loading up on NVAX ALL DAY.
Here's a comprehensive article on Avian virus by TIME ASIA. The article discusses the potential death rate (millions to billions) if the Avian virus mutates:
http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/printout/0,13675,501050926-1106457,00.html
President Bush will host Avian Flu conference at 2PM EST.
I found this post in one of the MB this morning:
"Shares of "Pandemic Summit" Names Advance [delayed]
09:43 a.m. 10/07/2005 Provided by Ridgeland, MS, OCT 07, 2005 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- President Bush hosts a Pandemic Summit today where he will meet with execs from CHIR, MEDI, GSK, MRK, SNY & WYE. Shares of these summit participants are mostly higher in pre-market trading. Other companies tied to the vaccination industry that may have already seen "bird flu rallies" include: DVAX, GMED, HEB, NNVC, NVAX, VRA & VXGN. "
Institutional managers have been buying all day again (chart from Lycos I-Watch):
Interesting read:
http://www.reachm.com/amstreet/archives/2005/09/29/the-disaster-thats-sneaking-up-behind-you/
September 29, 2005
The Disaster That's Sneaking Up Behind You
From Monga Bay:
Different influenza strains spread around the world annually. Every so often a strain tough enough to kill millions emerges, and experts believe the world is overdue for another pandemic. Unraveling what made the 1918 flu so vicious could help doctors better react if a similar strain returns.
All flu viruses are thought to have originated in birds. But scientists also have long thought that to cause human epidemics, the viruses first had to jump from birds to pigs, where genetic changes that allow the strains to better spread in mammals occur.
Flu strains that are more birdlike are more dangerous to people because their immune systems haven't been exposed to them before.
Flu in birds, pigs and people Asia's current bird flu, a strain known as H5N1, clearly can jump directly from poultry to people — at least 15 people have died of it this winter. Most cases have been traced directly to contact with sick birds, although human-to- human transmission has not been ruled out in one instance.
In the new research, scientists reconstructed the three-dimensional structure of the hemagglutinin protein, a protein on the surface of the flu virus that allows it to attach to and penetrate lung cells.
Hemagglutinin from human and bird flu viruses interact with different cell receptors, which is why birds infecting people is rare.
Part of the reason that twenty to forty million people succumbed to the 1918 flu - so virulent it could kill within a few hours - was because scientists didn't even discover the flu virus till 1933.
Today's H5N1 virus, the lethal avian influenza that first appeared in Hong Kong in 1997, has a kill rate of 70%, but research indicates a vaccine could prevent a devastating pandemic. If someone creates one.
But until they unlock the probable mutation path that may make it so easily spread between humans, all current vaccines remain incomplete guesses. In 1976, the similarity of the swine flu to the 1918 virus created such a scare that a mass national vaccination campaign that backfired. The flu proved to be pretty benign and no epidemic occurred. But more than 1000 people developed Guillain-Barre syndrome (generalised muscle weakness) from the vaccination, and nearly 50 died from the misplaced defense.
But there's a few positive notes, like this, which was announced August 25th:
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) , a specialty biopharmaceutical company, today reported preclinical results on the Company's novel Virus-Like Particle (VLP) influenza vaccine. Novavax's biological group led by Dr. Gale Smith, together with Dr. Tumpey and Dr. Bu from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, published the detailed results in the August 15 online edition of the journal Vaccine. The study demonstrates that a H9N2 influenza virus (avian flu) vaccine produced with the Company's proprietary VLP technology is effective in protecting animals when challenged with live H9N2 influenza virus.
"Our VLP technology, based on a scalable process with short production lead times, offers an attractive alternative to the existing egg-dependent and the newer cell-based methods for the manufacture of influenza vaccine and other urgently needed vaccines. These advantages address the challenge of producing large quantities of a pandemic flu vaccine within a short timeframe," said Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO of Novavax. "This publication demonstrates the value of Novavax's VLP vaccine pipeline. Our plan is to advance our VLP technology into clinical trials with both pandemic and seasonal versions of influenza VLP vaccines."
The gist of the trials indicates that a fast way to produce mass quantities of vaccine may exist, if subsequent trials prove as positive. But for a virus that can kill in a very few hours, such production speed - which may save millions of lives - may not be fast enough to prevent millions of deaths still.
But it's a start. It would also be useful if more people knew the facts about how fast the avian flu could mutate into such a pandemic-causing form. It will take public pressure on elected officials to fund the research and fast-track the trials so - if we're lucky - we might head this one off.
Avian flu, after all, poses the deadliest threat known to humans, short of a nuclear holocaust. And have you heard our leaders discussing it? I haven't. Which means our leaders aren't leading.
Related Links:
The Georgetown Voice
Plutonium Page at Daily Kos
Melanie Mattson
Because, beginning Sunday, is Pandemic Flu Awareness Week.
By Kevin Hayden 1:55 am Natural Disasters, Health, Health R & D
2 Responses to "The Disaster That's Sneaking Up Behind You"
DavidByron Says:
September 29th, 2005 at 5:07 pm
Earning extra credit, huh?
Because, beginning Sunday, is Pandemic Flu Awareness Week.
Lawrence Shultz Says:
October 9th, 2005 at 5:36 am
I think that Novavax should be granted FAST TRACK Status and place it VLP technology in production NOW. If it has possibilities the Goverment should be willing to do what EVER it takes to make it happen before it is too late.
God Help Us All
Made a solid pick up of 5k shares on Friday ahead of the latest news of the cases in Turkey and Romania. This should fair very well even in the upcoming bear market.
US Government revised the draft of Avian response plan. They now estimate the death rate at 1.9 million:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051009/ap_on_he_me/flu_pandemic
Great information, thank you.
Everything is in place for this Bird Flu group to advance meaningfully from this point, the news is bullish (bullish for this group, but dreadful for humanity :-[ (it is better to know the truth than to ignore it, this way we can and will prepare for the disease - that's why these plays can rise a lot even if nothing happens - that would be the ideal scenario).
As I was saying, the news is bullish and it won't stop, the trend will be for more and more news on this subject, banging everyday on people's lives and thoughts. A bubble could develop on this small group, if the message really passes through the publics collective mind.
Anyway, I need to set some rules in case these are all wrong thoughts and NVAX heads down. We always need to consider this possibility (because it is quite real, as someone who spent some years trading stocks knows very well) and control risk.
If we're right, we'll make big profits. If we're wrong, we'll take small losses. That's how this game must be played.
Technically, I have a symmetrical triangle on the chart. The stock can't close below the ascending trendline, which for today stands at $1.60 (but rising everyday), or I'll be forced to sell. I hope NVAX breaks the triangle on the upside, the market has the word now.
NICE breakout ! On my screen 2.73 is the high !
What a nice day again!
I am bought in at $2.02. I sold my position in HEB with a nice gain and bought more NVAX at $2.47.
With last week and today's volume, NVAX is definitely getting attention:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/stocksinmotion/10246554_2.html
After President Bush's conference with vaccine companies on Friday, there's been more coverage on the media as to the seriousness and the revised death potential of Avian virus (1.9 million for US alone).
What's your take on a new target of $2.70 - $2.80?
Great 18% jump on NVAX :o Now it is clear, as the stock moves up and away from our buying point, that this Avian Flu play is getting attention from the public and market professionals.
A short term descending trendline was broken on the upside and we have a new intraday high at $2.74. It is important for the volume to keep up on this breakout process. If we get a close above $2.56 on a big volume day (more than 1.5 million shares traded) we get a technical target of the breakout of $2.56-$1.28 = $1.28+$2.56 = $3.84 !
I will let the profits run on NVAX.
David, whats your take on today's NVAX action? Congrats on VICL & SVA!
Keep up the good work!
Another 10 million share day! WOW. Like David said, this stock will hit the stock screeners/radars all over the place now with two consistent days of 9-10 million in volume.
Dang, I had my limit sell at $2.80 >:( I thought about doing a limit sell at $2.70 (Got to listen to your hunches and voice of REASON more ... LOL) ;)
Another day of Institutional managers buying (chart from Lycos I-watch)
Great call on VICL too, David. Just keep up the great work you guys!!!
Thanks for your kind words :)
I must say I have some doubts at this point, given yesterday's doji on the chart. With so much news and talk concerning the Bird Flu I thought NVAX would really breakout yesterday.
I see my performance going nowhere the last couple of months, and all because I'm too reluctant to take nice profits when I have them.
NVAX failed on its attempt to breakout, perhaps a fall to the ascending trendline (today standing at $1.65) may happen, because bulls will get discouraged by their failed attempt, and need to regain strength at lower levels.
This is a though decision, but I choose to take profits on NVAX at today's open.
This news out this morning. If you buy/sell on dips and peaks until the Bio Investor Forum next Wednesday, could make money on anticipation of the forum. I know David sold, and I also sold but bought back on dip. If you are still holding NVAX or any stock position during this bearish market, be very careful and REALLY watch your stock rise/fall activity. Sell on gains and buy back on TRUE dips and rebounds.
Good trading.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051013/nyth054.html?.v=27
Novavax to Present at the 2005 Bio InvestorForum
Thursday October 13, 8:00 am ET
MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) a specialty biopharmaceutical company, today announced that Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, will be presenting at the Biotechnology Industry Organization, 2005 Bio InvestorForum on Wednesday, October 19, 2005.
WHEN: Wednesday, October 19, 2005 12:00 p.m. PT
WHERE: The Palace Hotel, 2 New Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA
HOW: The live broadcast of the presentation can be accessed through
our website at http://www.novavax.com. After the presentation
date, the web cast will be archived on our website for 90 days.
Dr. Rahul Singhvi
Dr. Singhvi was appointed President and CEO of Novavax in August, 2005. He joined the Company in April, 2004 as Vice President, Pharmaceutical Development and Manufacturing Operations. Dr. Singhvi joined Novavax after 10 years experience with Merck & Co, where he most recently served as a Director within the Merck Manufacturing division. Dr. Singhvi holds both a Master and Doctorate of Science degree in Chemical Engineering from MIT, a Master of Business Administration from The Wharton School, and a Bachelor of Technology from IIT, Kanpur, India. He holds several patents in the area of cell culturing systems and has co-authored numerous publications and abstracts on biochemical engineering and cell physiology.
Nice little rebound today for NVAX.
Price action retested the ascending trendline i drew TL1. Yet it failed to close above my resistence point of 2.39 to close at 2.37. We may see a pullback tomorrow due to the failure of the bulls to break 2.39. Im holding as long as it closes above 2.05 for the time being.
Good luck all,
-fousc
Analysis from StockCharts.com very bullish for tomorrow:
FYI - Avian Virus News Update 10/13/05 4:28 PM EDT - Avian virus spreading to migrating birds, further spreading the virus infection (Video link at bottom of article):
http://www.thebostonchannel.com/health/5095988/detail.html?rss=bos&psp=health#
European Union is getting very excited about the Avian outbreak in Turkey and Romania:
This news link talks about Europe's urgency to produce more Avian vaccine and the availability of process to produce the vaccine in 2 months instead of 6 month using cell culture rather than chicken eggs.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2005/October/theworld_October373.xml§ion=theworld&col=
NVAX has such process and the new CEO with MIT credentials holds several patents on cell culturing systems!
NVAX has a lot of potential to gain through next Wednesday's Bio InvestorForum 2005 in San Francisco where NVAX CEO will do a presentation. You can tune into live webcast at:
http://www.novavax.com.
European Union to hold Avian Crisis Talk on Friday!
EU experts now prepare for Avian pandemic with expected 25 million infections and 7 million deaths!!!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/birdflu_dc;_ylt=AmwUnc9pdZJFHpQuGS3xrjis0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--
Tuesday, October 18th is expected to be a huge event for the vaccine producing community. From what I have been hearing, is that a U.S. "Flu Czar" is to be announced, along with how much of the $4 Billion appropriation is to be allocated.
Also, I heard a rumor that Steve Cohen's - SAC Capital Mgmt is buying chunks of NVAX. The rumor originated that institutional purchases found via Bloomberg service, disclosed trades from the firm.
Having recommended NFLX for quite some time, the trading activity of NFLX was pretty wild on the way up from $11. Apparently, Cohen's style is to place incongruent trades to disguise the true intentions of the firm. eg. taking out all stop losses. Keep this in mind, if you see any huge short-lived dips.
Good Luck,
poorman1
Closing above $2.50 makes NVAX partially marginable. It appears this is setting up for a gap up next week, especially with U.S. govenment strategic flu plan being unveiled.
Good Luck, here's the closing chart.
Nice gain and volume activity today. $2.50 - $2.55 resistance broken!
Another day of Institutional managers buying (chart from Lycos I-Watch):
Hello..........anyone else here? :) (If you are, a "hi" would be much appreciated) ;D
Well, David, I guess I will carry the torch for the moment. ;)
As the TA chart shows below, 10 day MA is rising above the 50 day MA with sustained volume and MACD in the positive territory (David, you taught me that, thanks).
I'll continue to hold through next week, towards Wednesday's Bio Investor Forum 2005 in San Francisco, while re-evaluating my position daily depending on the stock activity.
Good trading!
News Update - Avian virus now showing resistance to Tamiflu.
10/15/2005 07:09:20 AM EDT
Daily Post
ATTEMPTS to control the deadly bird flu could be helping to create a drug resistant form of the virus, new research suggested last night.
Scientists identified a strain of the H5N1 virus in Vietnam resistant to Tamiflu, the drug being stockpiled to fight any outbreak in the UK.
It was found in a Vietnamese girl who was put on a course of preventative treatment with Tamiflu for four days in February.
Medics fear she may be one of the first H5N1 victims to acquire the virus through person-to-person transmission The British government does not plan to offer Tamiflu, one of a class of drugs called neuraminidase inhibitors, to healthy people as a precaution.
But prophylactic (taken as a preventative measure) use of Tamiflu was part of the control measures being adopted in Asian hotspots where about 60 people died from the virus.
The new findings, due to be published in the journal Nature next week, suggest it may be contributing to the emergence of drug resistance.
Viruses and bacteria can become resistant if the treatment used against them was too weak.
Up to now the virus has only been known to pass from birds to humans. At least one other case of transmission between humans has been suspected, but not confirmed.
Health experts fear that if the virus mutates into a form that transmits easily between people it could trigger a global pandemic claiming millions of lives.
A team led by Yoshihiro Kawaoka, from the University of Tokyo in Japan, looked at 10 viral clones from the girl and found six were highly resistant to Tamiflu.
Three others were slightly resistant and one was "highly sensitive".
However even the highly resistant virus did succumb to another drug, zanamivir - marketed as Relenza - which has been suggested as an alternative bird flu treatment but so far not been widely adopted.
A Department of Health spokeswoman said there were no current plans to administer it prophylactically either to members of the public or health workers
Here is last week's Lycos I-watch recap. There's been a lot accumulation with little selling activity. If accumulating continues next week, it is good for NVAX.
If buying activity stops, then managers will be holding for sell points.
I am holding NVAX through Wednesday's Bio Investor Forum 2005 in San Francisco, unless there is a nice gain. Then I'll sell to take profit and buy back on pullback/dip.
Good trading!
Yes LiveLife, I'm still with you. Holding 1500 of 5000. I dropped 3500 when it originally couldn't hold 2.56 . With all the attention surrounding the bird flu, any little bit of negative info regarding the effectiveness of its product will cause the bottom to drop out.
Hello all,
Some have asked me to post info from Premium NVAX board here so that non-premium members can see the info.
If you don't mind, I'll duplicate some charts/posts here from last week.
Please let me know if there is any problem.
Thanks.
Here's my duplicate post from October 7:
This was Institutional managers buy/sell activity today for NVAX by Lycos I-Watch. As you can see, they were loading up on NVAX ALL DAY.
Here's another duplicate post from October 7:
Here's a comprehensive article on Avian virus by TIME ASIA. The article discusses the potential death rate (millions to billions) if the Avian virus mutates:
http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/printout/0,13675,501050926-1106457,00.html
Another duplicate post from October 7:
President Bush will host Avian Flu conference at 2PM EST.
I found this post in one of the MB this morning:
"Shares of "Pandemic Summit" Names Advance [delayed]
09:43 a.m. 10/07/2005 Provided by Ridgeland, MS, OCT 07, 2005 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- President Bush hosts a Pandemic Summit today where he will meet with execs from CHIR, MEDI, GSK, MRK, SNY & WYE. Shares of these summit participants are mostly higher in pre-market trading. Other companies tied to the vaccination industry that may have already seen "bird flu rallies" include: DVAX, GMED, HEB, NNVC, NVAX, VRA & VXGN. "
Chart from Lycos I-Watch:
Duplicate post from October 10:
US Government revised the draft of Avian response plan. They now estimate the death rate at 1.9 million:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051009/ap_on_he_me/flu_pandemic
Duplicate post from October 10:
What a nice day again!
I am bought in at $2.02. I sold my position in HEB with a nice gain and bought more NVAX at $2.47.
With last week and today's volume, NVAX is definitely getting attention:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/stocksinmotion/10246554_2.html
After President Bush's conference with vaccine companies on Friday, there's been more coverage on the media as to the seriousness and the revised death potential of Avian virus (1.9 million for US alone).
What's your take on a new target of $2.70 - $2.80?
Duplicate post from October 12:
Another 10 million share day! WOW. Like David said, this stock will hit the stock screeners/radars all over the place now with two consistent days of 9-10 million in volume.
Dang, I had my limit sell at $2.80 >:( I thought about doing a limit sell at $2.70 (Got to listen to your hunches and voice of REASON more ... LOL) ;)
Another day of Institutional managers buying (chart from Lycos I-watch)
Great call on VICL too, David. Just keep up the great work you guys!!!
Duplicate post from October 13:
This news out this morning. If you buy/sell on dips and peaks until the Bio Investor Forum next Wednesday, could make money on anticipation of the forum. I know David sold, and I also sold but bought back on dip. If you are still holding NVAX or any stock position during this bearish market, be very careful and REALLY watch your stock rise/fall activity. Sell on gains and buy back on TRUE dips and rebounds.
Good trading.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051013/nyth054.html?.v=27
Novavax to Present at the 2005 Bio InvestorForum
Thursday October 13, 8:00 am ET
MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) a specialty biopharmaceutical company, today announced that Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, will be presenting at the Biotechnology Industry Organization, 2005 Bio InvestorForum on Wednesday, October 19, 2005.
WHEN: Wednesday, October 19, 2005 12:00 p.m. PT
WHERE: The Palace Hotel, 2 New Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA
HOW: The live broadcast of the presentation can be accessed through
our website at http://www.novavax.com. After the presentation
date, the web cast will be archived on our website for 90 days.
Dr. Rahul Singhvi
Dr. Singhvi was appointed President and CEO of Novavax in August, 2005. He joined the Company in April, 2004 as Vice President, Pharmaceutical Development and Manufacturing Operations. Dr. Singhvi joined Novavax after 10 years experience with Merck & Co, where he most recently served as a Director within the Merck Manufacturing division. Dr. Singhvi holds both a Master and Doctorate of Science degree in Chemical Engineering from MIT, a Master of Business Administration from The Wharton School, and a Bachelor of Technology from IIT, Kanpur, India. He holds several patents in the area of cell culturing systems and has co-authored numerous publications and abstracts on biochemical engineering and cell physiology.
Duplicate post from October 13:
Analysis from StockCharts.com very bullish for tomorrow:
Duplicate post from October 13:
FYI - Avian Virus News Update 10/13/05 4:28 PM EDT - Avian virus spreading to migrating birds, further spreading the virus infection (Video link at bottom of article):
http://www.thebostonchannel.com/health/5095988/detail.html?rss=bos&psp=health#
Duplicate post from October 14:
European Union is getting very excited about the Avian outbreak in Turkey and Romania:
Duplicate post from October 14:
This news link talks about Europe's urgency to produce more Avian vaccine and the availability of process to produce the vaccine in 2 months instead of 6 month using cell culture rather than chicken eggs.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2005/October/theworld_October373.xml§ion=theworld&col=
NVAX has such process and the new CEO with MIT credentials holds several patents on cell culturing systems!
NVAX has a lot of potential to gain through next Wednesday's Bio InvestorForum 2005 in San Francisco where NVAX CEO will do a presentation. You can tune into live webcast at:
http://www.novavax.com.
Duplicate post from October 14:
European Union to hold Avian Crisis Talk on Friday!
EU experts now prepare for Avian pandemic with expected 25 million infections and 7 million deaths!!!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/birdflu_dc;_ylt=AmwUnc9pdZJFHpQuGS3xrjis0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--
Duplicate post from October 14:
Nice gain and volume activity today. $2.50 - $2.55 resistance broken!
Another day of Institutional managers buying (chart from Lycos I-Watch):
Duplicate post from October 14:
Well, David, since you sold, I guess I will carry the torch for the moment. ;)
As the TA chart shows below, 10 day MA is rising above the 50 day MA with sustained volume and MACD in the positive territory (David, you taught me that, thanks).
I'll continue to hold through next week, towards Wednesday's Bio Investor Forum 2005 in San Francisco, while re-evaluating my position daily depending on the stock activity.
Good trading!
Duplicate post from October 15:
News Update - Avian virus now showing resistance to Tamiflu.
10/15/2005 07:09:20 AM EDT
Daily Post
ATTEMPTS to control the deadly bird flu could be helping to create a drug resistant form of the virus, new research suggested last night.
Scientists identified a strain of the H5N1 virus in Vietnam resistant to Tamiflu, the drug being stockpiled to fight any outbreak in the UK.
It was found in a Vietnamese girl who was put on a course of preventative treatment with Tamiflu for four days in February.
Medics fear she may be one of the first H5N1 victims to acquire the virus through person-to-person transmission The British government does not plan to offer Tamiflu, one of a class of drugs called neuraminidase inhibitors, to healthy people as a precaution.
But prophylactic (taken as a preventative measure) use of Tamiflu was part of the control measures being adopted in Asian hotspots where about 60 people died from the virus.
The new findings, due to be published in the journal Nature next week, suggest it may be contributing to the emergence of drug resistance.
Viruses and bacteria can become resistant if the treatment used against them was too weak.
Up to now the virus has only been known to pass from birds to humans. At least one other case of transmission between humans has been suspected, but not confirmed.
Health experts fear that if the virus mutates into a form that transmits easily between people it could trigger a global pandemic claiming millions of lives.
A team led by Yoshihiro Kawaoka, from the University of Tokyo in Japan, looked at 10 viral clones from the girl and found six were highly resistant to Tamiflu.
Three others were slightly resistant and one was "highly sensitive".
However even the highly resistant virus did succumb to another drug, zanamivir - marketed as Relenza - which has been suggested as an alternative bird flu treatment but so far not been widely adopted.
A Department of Health spokeswoman said there were no current plans to administer it prophylactically either to members of the public or health workers
Here is last week's Lycos I-watch recap. There's been a lot of accumulation with little selling activity. If accumulating continues next week, it is good for NVAX.
If buying activity stops, then managers will be holding for sell points.
I am holding NVAX through Wednesday's Bio Investor Forum 2005 in San Francisco, unless there is a nice gain. Then I'll sell to take profit and buy back on pullback/dip.
Good trading!
Quote from: trader567 on October 16, 2005, 02:48:00 PM
Yes LiveLife, I'm still with you. Holding 1500 of 5000. I dropped 3500 when it originally couldn't hold 2.56 . With all the attention surrounding the bird flu, any little bit of negative info regarding the effectiveness of its product will cause the bottom to drop out.
Yes trader567, we all need to be very careful during this "bearish" market. Any hiccup and there is sell off across the board.
Those that have any worries or doubts can sell and ride out the "bearish" time and buy back when the market rebounds, like what David is doing (he cashed out all positions last week).
I'll be watching NVAX very closely on Monday.
Good trading!
Duplicate post from premium NVAX board:
Quote from: trader567 on October 16, 2005, 02:48:00 PM
Yes LiveLife, I'm still with you. Holding 1500 of 5000. I dropped 3500 when it originally couldn't hold 2.56 . With all the attention surrounding the bird flu, any little bit of negative info regarding the effectiveness of its product will cause the bottom to drop out.
Yes trader567, we all need to be very careful during this "bearish" market. Any hiccup and there is sell off across the board.
Those that have any worries or doubts can sell and ride out the "bearish" time and buy back when the market rebounds, like what David is doing (he cashed out all positions last week).
I'll be watching NVAX very closely on Monday.
Good trading!
FYI - 50 day MA crossing 200 day MA:
FYI - 50 day MA crossing 200 day MA:
I still with ya too.
Here's the link to the Bio Investor Forum 2005 to be held in San Francisco this Wednesday where CEO of NVAX will present:
http://investorforum.bio.org/opencms/bif/2005/index.jsp
I made a mistake when I sold this stock last week. It held on the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and it is clearly about to breakout. I will correct my selling mistake by buying back the stock.
The Avian Flu story unfortunately isn't going away soon, and from what I've read on this thread, particularly that thing with the Vietnamese girl and the EU talk, will only add to strong speculation on this group.
I am a speculator, I must be in.
For those interested in NVAX DD, I just came across this .pdf on
Novavax website of a presentation from 9/21/05
Avian flu vaccine is definitely a focus in their short term plan.
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/71/711/71178/items/166206/Sept2005IRPresentation.pdf
pg 23-39 vaccine development
NVAX September presentation:
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/71/711/71178/items/166206/Sept2005IRPresentation.pdf
8)
Duplicate post from Premium NVAX board:
"Nice to have you back in NVAX David!
Quote from: David Randolph on October 17, 2005, 07:19:30 AM
I made a mistake when I sold this stock last week. It held on the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and it is clearly about to breakout. I will correct my selling mistake by buying back the stock.
The Avian Flu story unfortunately isn't going away soon, and from what I've read on this thread, particularly that thing with the Vietnamese girl and the EU talk, will only add to strong speculation on this group.
I am a speculator, I must be in.
"
Nice to have you back in NVAX David!
Nice job of keeping the NVAX thread alive LiveLife! I'm still with you too.
GO NVAX! HEB and SVA! (and NNVC.pk)
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051017/nym261.html?.v=3
Wave Biotech Announces Strategic Alliance on Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Production Technologies
Monday October 17, 3:38 pm ET
SOMERSET, N.J., Oct. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- Wave Biotech, LLC, has announced today that the company is working with a number of worldwide pharmaceutical and biotech manufacturers that are making vaccines in the disposable Wave Bioreactor®. In its latest collaboration effort, Wave Biotech has entered into an agreement with Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News), based in Malvern, PA, and both companies will jointly collaborate on the development of a commercial scale production process for Novavax's pandemic influenza virus (avian flu) vaccine and other biological products. Wave Biotech will provide process and equipment expertise for the propriety technology based on disposable equipment for the manufacture of biologicals. The initial focus of the collaboration will be on Novavax's H5N1 avian-flu-Like Particle (VLP) vaccine. The joint collaboration will demonstrate in a production process that can express potent vaccine at high yield at the 500-liter scale.
Vijay Singh, President and founder of Wave Biotech, LLC, issued the following statement: "Wave Biotech's disposable cell culture technology is an ideal fit for the Novavax application because it provides scalable technology that can be delivered, installed, and commissioned quickly for possible worldwide use."
Non Traditional Approach May Prove Necessary in the Race Against Time
Wave Biotech first began development on their innovative technology for the bioreactor six years ago, which may prove to be a critical component in the race to develop vaccines before a flu pandemic has an opportunity to occur. The company offers a quick way to rapidly manufacture and deploy bioreactors of up to 500 liters operating volume. Using large plastic bags as cell culture vessels, the bags are inflated, filled with culture nutrients, and inoculated with the cells of choice. These bags are placed on special machines that rock in a back and forth motion, generating waves that effectively aerate and mix the contents, thus producing a highly effective environment for cell growth and productivity. The machines have been fully operational since 1999, and are currently in use at almost every pharmaceutical or biotech company worldwide. They have been licensed as part of processes to produce human therapeutics and are built to comply with all applicable FDA guidelines. Most critically, they have a proven track record with many cell lines and viruses having been used for the production of proteins, viruses, gene therapy products, and vaccines. Due to the inexpensive and simple pre-sterilized disposable culture bag, cell culture can be carried out by low-tech labor without the need for extensive plant infrastructure. The rocking machines are mass-produced and can be delivered in weeks as compared to six months or longer for traditional stirred tank bioreactors.
Dr. Singh acknowledged that current issues concerning the possibility of an influenza pandemic striking humanity in the very near future is based on several notable factors. "First of all, the influenza virus is capable of mutating rapidly so that most people would have no significant resistance and would succumb. Additionally there is a disturbing increase in the occurrence of avian flu in Asia as well as the latest evidence in some of the eastern European countries. It is clear that the great influenza epidemic of 1918 was avian origin, followed by others in 1957 and 1968," he said. "Statistically," he continued, "another appears to be due at this time." He also noted that there are now anti-viral pharmaceuticals that may be useful in treating those people infected by the influenza virus, but he cautioned that the efficacy and availability of such drugs are very limited.
"The problem with influenza vaccines is that the virus mutates rapidly and a vaccine made against one strain will likely be useless against another one," said Singh. "Making such a vaccine is very time consuming and takes eight to ten months to build up a significant stockpile of doses."
The manufacturing equipment developed by Wave Biotech can be quickly configured and deployed anywhere in the world within days. The cells only contact a single-use bag and these bags can be stockpiled for up to three years providing an option for almost instant vaccine manufacturing. The equipment has been optimized over several years to enable easy operation with minimal training required. This method would enable vaccine facilities to be rapidly established anywhere in the world to combat the disease at the local level, thus preventing its release into the general population. The disposable cell culture bags can be manufactured in large quantities in simple factories using heat seaming equipment, delivered pre-sterilized by radiation and ready for use.
Engineered Baculovirus
Current vaccine manufacturers use 1950's chicken egg technology and other methods to make the vaccine. Singh considers these methods far more primitive because "even 350 million chicken eggs would only yield 300 million doses which would take at least six months to develop." Dr. Singh added, "This technology is not likely to save a significant number of people since compounding the problem is that if, indeed, the flu is avian origin, then where are the significantly large numbers of eggs needed to make the vaccine going to originate? The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 is estimated to have killed between 50 and 100 million people, at a time when world population was only 1.8 billion. Today we have 6.5 billion people and the impact of a virus such as the one in 1918 would clearly prove to be even more devastating."
Singh claims it is both necessary and critical for governments worldwide to secure alternative technologies to rapidly make an engineered cell line for vaccine production.
"One approach, developed by Novavax, is to identify the gene sequences of the virus as it exists now in the Far East and rapidly clone into baculovirus," said Dr. Singh. "This engineered baculovirus can be used to infect insect cells grown in liquid culture media and rapidly express large amounts of a suitable vaccine. This approach has been tested, proven and requires simple culture media that can be made from common chemicals. This way, it is possible to clone and develop a cell expressions system against a specific influenza strain within six weeks of securing the sample. While getting a cell line that produces the desired vaccine is only part of the story, in order to make sufficient quantities of the vaccine in such a time- sensitive manner, it will be essential to grow large numbers of cells using thousands of liters of cell culture capability."
About Wave Biotech
Wave Biotech is a research-based company that develops and manufactures innovative process equipment for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. The Company's focus is on developing disposable bioprocess equipment for the operation traditionally requiring stainless-steel tanks and piping. Key products, such as the Wave Bioreactor®, WaveMixer®, FlexMixer®, and Sterile Tube Fuser, feature disposable contact materials that eliminate cleaning and validation, thereby reducing costs in operations ranging from cell culture, media preparation, and buffer dissolution and thawing process intermediates to patient specific cell therapy in hospitals. These unique, patented, devices can be installed and commissioned rapidly, thereby drastically reducing the time-to-market for biological products. Wave Biotech's equipment is in use with hundreds of companies worldwide, both for R&D, as well as commercial applications.
Hey Livelife....great news for NVAX!
News out half hour before market close today. It went crazy with the news!
Goodluck!!
October 17, 2005 - 3:38 PM EDT
Wave Biotech Announces Strategic Alliance on Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Production Technologies
SOMERSET, N.J., Oct. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- Wave Biotech, LLC, has announced today that the company is working with a number of worldwide pharmaceutical and biotech manufacturers that are making vaccines in the disposable Wave Bioreactor(R). In its latest collaboration effort, Wave Biotech has entered into an agreement with Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX), based in Malvern, PA, and both companies will jointly collaborate on the development of a commercial scale production process for Novavax's pandemic influenza virus (avian flu) vaccine and other biological products. Wave Biotech will provide process and equipment expertise for the propriety technology based on disposable equipment for the manufacture of biologicals. The initial focus of the collaboration will be on Novavax's H5N1 avian-flu-Like Particle (VLP) vaccine. The joint collaboration will demonstrate in a production process that can express potent vaccine at high yield at the 500-liter scale.
Vijay Singh, President and founder of Wave Biotech, LLC, issued the following statement: 'Wave Biotech's disposable cell culture technology is an ideal fit for the Novavax application because it provides scalable technology that can be delivered, installed, and commissioned quickly for possible worldwide use.'
Non Traditional Approach May Prove Necessary in the Race Against Time
Wave Biotech first began development on their innovative technology for the bioreactor six years ago, which may prove to be a critical component in the race to develop vaccines before a flu pandemic has an opportunity to occur. The company offers a quick way to rapidly manufacture and deploy bioreactors of up to 500 liters operating volume. Using large plastic bags as cell culture vessels, the bags are inflated, filled with culture nutrients, and inoculated with the cells of choice. These bags are placed on special machines that rock in a back and forth motion, generating waves that effectively aerate and mix the contents, thus producing a highly effective environment for cell growth and productivity. The machines have been fully operational since 1999, and are currently in use at almost every pharmaceutical or biotech company worldwide. They have been licensed as part of processes to produce human therapeutics and are built to comply with all applicable FDA guidelines. Most critically, they have a proven track record with many cell lines and viruses having been used for the production of proteins, viruses, gene therapy products, and vaccines. Due to the inexpensive and simple pre-sterilized disposable culture bag, cell culture can be carried out by low-tech labor without the need for extensive plant infrastructure. The rocking machines are mass-produced and can be delivered in weeks as compared to six months or longer for traditional stirred tank bioreactors.
Dr. Singh acknowledged that current issues concerning the possibility of an influenza pandemic striking humanity in the very near future is based on several notable factors. 'First of all, the influenza virus is capable of mutating rapidly so that most people would have no significant resistance and would succumb. Additionally there is a disturbing increase in the occurrence of avian flu in Asia as well as the latest evidence in some of the eastern European countries. It is clear that the great influenza epidemic of 1918 was avian origin, followed by others in 1957 and 1968,' he said. 'Statistically,' he continued, 'another appears to be due at this time.' He also noted that there are now anti-viral pharmaceuticals that may be useful in treating those people infected by the influenza virus, but he cautioned that the efficacy and availability of such drugs are very limited.
'The problem with influenza vaccines is that the virus mutates rapidly and a vaccine made against one strain will likely be useless against another one,' said Singh. 'Making such a vaccine is very time consuming and takes eight to ten months to build up a significant stockpile of doses.'
The manufacturing equipment developed by Wave Biotech can be quickly configured and deployed anywhere in the world within days. The cells only contact a single-use bag and these bags can be stockpiled for up to three years providing an option for almost instant vaccine manufacturing. The equipment has been optimized over several years to enable easy operation with minimal training required. This method would enable vaccine facilities to be rapidly established anywhere in the world to combat the disease at the local level, thus preventing its release into the general population. The disposable cell culture bags can be manufactured in large quantities in simple factories using heat seaming equipment, delivered pre-sterilized by radiation and ready for use.
Engineered Baculovirus
Current vaccine manufacturers use 1950's chicken egg technology and other methods to make the vaccine. Singh considers these methods far more primitive because 'even 350 million chicken eggs would only yield 300 million doses which would take at least six months to develop.' Dr. Singh added, 'This technology is not likely to save a significant number of people since compounding the problem is that if, indeed, the flu is avian origin, then where are the significantly large numbers of eggs needed to make the vaccine going to originate? The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 is estimated to have killed between 50 and 100 million people, at a time when world population was only 1.8 billion. Today we have 6.5 billion people and the impact of a virus such as the one in 1918 would clearly prove to be even more devastating.'
Singh claims it is both necessary and critical for governments worldwide to secure alternative technologies to rapidly make an engineered cell line for vaccine production.
'One approach, developed by Novavax, is to identify the gene sequences of the virus as it exists now in the Far East and rapidly clone into baculovirus,' said Dr. Singh. 'This engineered baculovirus can be used to infect insect cells grown in liquid culture media and rapidly express large amounts of a suitable vaccine. This approach has been tested, proven and requires simple culture media that can be made from common chemicals. This way, it is possible to clone and develop a cell expressions system against a specific influenza strain within six weeks of securing the sample. While getting a cell line that produces the desired vaccine is only part of the story, in order to make sufficient quantities of the vaccine in such a time- sensitive manner, it will be essential to grow large numbers of cells using thousands of liters of cell culture capability.'
About Wave Biotech
Wave Biotech is a research-based company that develops and manufactures innovative process equipment for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. The Company's focus is on developing disposable bioprocess equipment for the operation traditionally requiring stainless-steel tanks and piping. Key products, such as the Wave Bioreactor(R), WaveMixer(R), FlexMixer(R), and Sterile Tube Fuser, feature disposable contact materials that eliminate cleaning and validation, thereby reducing costs in operations ranging from cell culture, media preparation, and buffer dissolution and thawing process intermediates to patient specific cell therapy in hospitals. These unique, patented, devices can be installed and commissioned rapidly, thereby drastically reducing the time-to-market for biological products. Wave Biotech's equipment is in use with hundreds of companies worldwide, both for R&D, as well as commercial applications.
SOURCE Wave Biotech, LLC
What a great day to be invested in the bird flu plays!
-fousc
NVAX's behavior today was curious. On the 13th of September we've had this news:
Novavax Announces Strategic Alliance on Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Production Technologies (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BCCEDD402%2D5778%2D4D8D%2D89F4%2DEDF0EC722F40%7D)
The effect of this news was minimal at that time, check it on the chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6877;image)
Today, at exactly 3:35 pm, this news hit the wires:
Wave Biotech Announces Strategic Alliance on Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Production Technologies (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=15780&guid=%7B3FB00AC6%2DCFDC%2D427E%2D8F1E%2D4959326370D9%7D&symb=)
And the market reaction was:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6879;image)
Why?
Possibly because now it was the other part of the partnership issuing the press release, which adds credibility to the news. Press Releases have more credibility when they are issued by both parts on a deal than just by one part (a lesson or trick to be learned).
But I think what caused the late day rally was that Wave Biotech was much more objective and clear on its words than Novavax. The way people say or write things, the way the information is perceived by investors sometimes is more important than the information itself.
Look at this:
«Wave Biotech, LLC, has announced today that the company is working with a number of worldwide pharmaceutical and biotech manufacturers that are making vaccines in the disposable Wave Bioreactor(R). In its latest collaboration effort, Wave Biotech has entered into an agreement with Novavax, Inc. (NVAX), based in Malvern, PA, and both companies will jointly collaborate on the development of a commercial scale production process for Novavax's pandemic influenza virus (avian flu) vaccine and other biological products. Wave Biotech will provide process and equipment expertise for the propriety technology based on disposable equipment for the manufacture of biologicals. The initial focus of the collaboration will be on Novavax's H5N1 avian-flu-Like Particle (VLP) vaccine. The joint collaboration will demonstrate in a production process that can express potent vaccine at high yield at the 500-liter scale.»
Speculators read «mass production», «worldwide sales» and the stock shot up through the roof. We also got news that Tamiflu isn't working in several Bird Flu cases, specially on a man to man case that happened in Vietnam. As we know the virus changes when he goes man to man and the change probably killed the effectiveness of Tamiflu. The search for new vaccines and alternatives has just began and if any of these companies puts their products for sale they will sell everything they can produce in a blink of an eye.
I'm sad I'm making money with such a worrisome disease, but that's the way the market goes ... I was a dumb when I sold some Bird Flu plays last week, I'm glad I bought back NVAX and I will continue holding it for the foreseeable future.
Julia, fousc, David thanks for the support. ;)
What a day for NVAX! = High Five to all the NVAX holders =
There was a reason for last week's accumulation by the money managers.
There was more accumulation activity today (chart from Lycos I-watch):
More NVAX discussion, follow up, and technical analysis: http://www.d2cents.com
NVAX fan and holder since $2.28.
Cheers to all longs! This should be an interesting ride up. My [2] cents. - [D]
David and all you traders of NVAX, thanks for the support. ;)
What a day for NVAX! = High Five to all the NVAX holders! =
There was a reason for last week's accumulation by the money managers.
There was more accumulation activity today (chart from Lycos I-watch):
NVAX unlike SVA (which is in blue sky zone) does have technical resistance ahead, the 200ema on my weekly chart is $4.20, so this wil be a key zone. Recent volume however is so high relative to history that that resistance might not be as hard to deal with as you might otherwise expect. Once momentum and a story get a hold of a stock it can make resistance somewhat futile On daily chart NVAX has run away from its averages, but interestingly NVAX has only just reached RSI of 70+.
Quote from: AussieTrader on October 18, 2005, 12:41:54 AM
NVAX unlike SVA (which is in blue sky zone) does have technical resistance ahead, the 200ema on my weekly chart is $4.20, so this wil be a key zone. Recent volume however is so high relative to history that that resistance might not be as hard to deal with as you might otherwise expect. Once momentum and a story get a hold of a stock it can make resistance somewhat futile On daily chart NVAX has run away from its averages, but interestingly NVAX has only just reached RSI of 70+.
I am on holding pattern right now, resetting new sell targets (I modified my sell target three times today!).
This is still very "bearish" market and we all need to be very careful. One hiccup and there maybe sell off all across the board again like last week.
With Avian virus news coverage 24/7, the Avian plays are enjoying the spotlight right now, and also the Avian support plays like makers of N95 masks and filters.
I wonder what would have happened to this sector if not for the Avian news coverage.
Anyway, back to trading! I'll be watching NVAX activity very closely tomorrow.
Be careful everyone tomorrow!
Good trading!
Duplicate post from Premium NVAX board:
Quote from: AussieTrader on October 18, 2005, 12:41:54 AM
NVAX unlike SVA (which is in blue sky zone) does have technical resistance ahead, the 200ema on my weekly chart is $4.20, so this wil be a key zone. Recent volume however is so high relative to history that resistance might not be as hard to deal with as you might otherwise expect. Once momentum and a story get a hold of a stock it can make resistance somewhat futile On daily chart NVAX has run away from its averages, but interestingly NVAX has only just reached RSI of 70+.
I am on holding pattern right now, resetting new sell targets (I modified my sell target three times today!).
This is still very "bearish" market and we all need to be very careful. One hiccup and there maybe sell off all across the board again like last week.
With Avian virus news coverage 24/7, the Avian plays are enjoying the spotlight right now, and also the Avian support plays like makers of N95 masks and filters.
I wonder what would have happened to this sector if not for the Avian news coverage.
Anyway, back to trading! I'll be watching NVAX activity very closely tomorrow.
Be careful everyone tomorrow!
Good trading!
BTW, poorman1, I like your GoNVAX.gif! ;D
More continuing news coverage on Avian bird flu (this posted 11 minutes ago for EU on Yahoo). Ongoing worldwide media coverage will only push the Avian plays and support plays further up today:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051018/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_eu
EU Nations: Bird Flu a 'Global Threat'
More continuing news coverage on Avian bird flu (this posted 11 minutes ago for EU on Yahoo). Ongoing worldwide media coverage will only push the Avian plays and support plays further up today:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051018/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_eu
EU Nations: Bird Flu a 'Global Threat'
By ROBERT WIELAARD, Associated Press Writer 11 minutes ago
LUXEMBOURG -
European Union foreign ministers on Tuesday declared the spread of bird flu from Asia into Europe a global threat requiring broad international cooperation to contain.
ADVERTISEMENT
They also called on the EU Executive Commission to accelerate steps to draft stronger rules against the virus, which in recent days has been discovered in Greece, Romania and Turkey, leading to bans on poultry from those countries.
The deadly H5N1 bird flu strain has swept poultry populations in large swaths of Asia since 2003, jumping to humans and killing at least 61 people — more than 40 of them in Vietnam — and resulting in the deaths of tens of millions of birds.
Its spread westward by migrating wild fowl has intensified fears the virus may mutate into one that can be easily transmitted among humans — a development experts fear could provoke a global epidemic that puts millions of lives at risk.
The foreign ministers were to issue a statement saying they recognize bird flu poses a serious, global health threat if it shifts from birds to human beings and one "that requires a coordinated international reaction."
The EU stepped up biosecurity measures and installed early detection systems along the migratory paths of birds to prevent contamination of domestic flocks.
But there are concerns that European nations lack stockpiles of vaccines and anti-virals to cope with a major outbreak.
The
World Health Organization recommends governments keep enough anti-viral drugs and regular human flu vaccines to inoculate at least 25 percent of their populations.
European officials say the 25 nations in the EU, as well as Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein, have only 10 million doses for an area with 500 million people. That's just 1 percent of the population.
Stockpiling vaccines is difficult as flu viruses can mutate quickly.
There is no human vaccine for the current strain of bird flu but scientists believe the Tamiflu drug may help humans fend off the virus.
:o WOW, look at that volume!. More than half the outstanding shares have changed hands.
Lots of profit taking and lots of support.
uc.
People are so nervous trading stocks that they are taking every short term gain they have, even selling stocks with enormous potential like NVAX.
We've had great news today:
Novavax Completes ESTRASORB Partnership (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=15780&guid=%7B21F8DA0E%2D5CE4%2D456A%2D9AB7%2D6D8E5F957CB8%7D&symb=)
The company will make a conference call tomorrow at 10am (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=15780&guid=%7BA977482C%2D6329%2D4E27%2DA4ED%2DFA8647A8FE3F%7D&symb=).
Just look at the huge volume on the stock, much higher now than before the breakout. I see today's action as profit taking, but also the first signs of the start of a Bird Flu bubble mania. I'm telling you, it will be hard to hold on, but this stock may run higher and faster than anyone can imagine at this point.
You see, there's no time. The bubble must develop from now until Christmas, because that's the Flu season.
Maybe the stock will correct some more, but I don't think it will go down much and by the end of the week we'll be seeing new highs on the whole Bird Flu group. Everyone will be rushing to get in before the weekend, when people will spend a lot of time talking, thinking, reading and listening to Bird Flu related news.
The case could unfortunately be a pandemic, but even if nothing happens, I see a global rush to pick up these stocks. Time will tell.
Maybe this will get it back on track. ;D
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051018/phtu070.html?.v=1
Profit taking today! Buy back tomorrow on dip/rebound.
Amazing 28.8 million shares today. WOW
More institutional/money manager accumulation (none of them sold):
Profit taking today! Buy back tomorrow on dip/rebound.
Amazing 28.8 million shares today. WOW
More institutional/money manager accumulation (none of them sold):
More good news for NVAX:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051018/phtu070.html?.v=1
Novavax Completes ESTRASORB Partnership
Tuesday October 18, 5:31 pm ET
MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) announced today that it has entered into a definitive license and supply agreement on ESTRASORB® (estradiol topical emulsion) with Esprit Pharma, a private specialty pharmaceutical company based in East Brunswick, NJ. Under the License Agreement, Esprit Pharma will obtain exclusive rights to market ESTRASORB in North America. Novavax will continue to manufacture ESTRASORB in its state-of-the-art pharmaceutical plant in Philadelphia. Esprit will pay Novavax a minimum cash consideration of $12.5 million, $2.0 million which was paid today, $8.0 million payable by year-end 2005, and the remaining balance of $2.5 million payable at the first anniversary of the Agreement in October 2006. Novavax will also receive a royalty on all net sales of ESTRASORB. Additionally, Esprit is obligated to pay Novavax certain milestone payments based on specific pre-determined net sales levels of ESTRASORB. This transaction today allows Novavax to continue to realize potential ESTRASORB marketing partnerships with other companies in international markets around the world.
"We are delighted with our new partnership with Esprit and believe that ESTRASORB is in the right hands with the necessary resources to achieve its full potential in the marketplace," said Ray Hage, Senior Vice President and COO of Novavax. "John Spitznagel and his team at Esprit have a remarkable track record of success in launching new products and building pharmaceutical companies. An example is their most recent successful venture in ESP Pharma, which this management team built and sold to Protein Design Labs, Inc. for approximately $500 million. Under the new licensing deal structure announced today, Novavax shareholders will realize the benefits from the marketing success of ESTRASORB anticipated under Esprit management."
"We are very excited about adding ESTRASORB to our product portfolio," said John T. Spitznagel, Esprit's Chairman and CEO. "Novavax's unique micellar nanoparticle (MNP) technology platform delivers estrogen through the skin in a therapeutically effective and consumer friendly manner. The acquisition of ESTRASORB reflects our ongoing and growing commitment to women's healthcare. We view today's Licensing Agreement as the beginning of a longer-term relationship with the management team of Novavax. We intend to work with Novavax to explore further use of its technologies in expanding our product pipeline."
"This partnership is a watershed event for Novavax. It culminates our strategy of transitioning from a commercial business model and focusing on our core competency of product development," said Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO of Novavax, Inc. "This agreement further strengthens our balance sheet and puts us in a position to advance our promising pandemic (avian) flu vaccine program as well as several new product candidates utilizing our MNP technology into clinical development."
Conference call tomorrow morning:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051018/phtu075.html?.v=1
Novavax Announces Conference Call
Tuesday October 18, 6:01 pm ET
MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) a specialty biopharmaceutical company, today announced the Company will hold a conference call tomorrow morning at 10 am (EST) to discuss a significant transaction on the Company's primary product, ESTRASORB®. The call will be hosted by Mr. Gary C. Evans, Chairman of the Board, Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO, and Mr. Ray Hage, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer to discuss the ESTRASORB Licensing Agreement announced today which will be followed by a question and answer session. Also participating on the call from Esprit Pharma will be Andrew J. Einhorn, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, and Lou Berardi, EVP of Business Development. The dial-in number for the conference call is 1 (800) 706-7748 pass code 36718556.
A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available through http://www.novavax.com. Please connect to this website at least 15 minutes prior to the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be needed to hear the webcast. A replay of the webcast will be available for 90 days starting on October 19th, 2005 at http://www.novavax.com. A replay of the conference call will also be available by telephone on October 19, 2005 through October 26, 2005. To access the replay, dial 1 (888) 286-8010 and enter pass code 37589208.
Conference call tomorrow morning:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051018/phtu075.html?.v=1
Novavax Announces Conference Call
Tuesday October 18, 6:01 pm ET
MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) a specialty biopharmaceutical company, today announced the Company will hold a conference call tomorrow morning at 10 am (EST) to discuss a significant transaction on the Company's primary product, ESTRASORB®. The call will be hosted by Mr. Gary C. Evans, Chairman of the Board, Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO, and Mr. Ray Hage, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer to discuss the ESTRASORB Licensing Agreement announced today which will be followed by a question and answer session. Also participating on the call from Esprit Pharma will be Andrew J. Einhorn, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, and Lou Berardi, EVP of Business Development. The dial-in number for the conference call is 1 (800) 706-7748 pass code 36718556.
A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available through http://www.novavax.com. Please connect to this website at least 15 minutes prior to the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be needed to hear the webcast. A replay of the webcast will be available for 90 days starting on October 19th, 2005 at http://www.novavax.com. A replay of the conference call will also be available by telephone on October 19, 2005 through October 26, 2005. To access the replay, dial 1 (888) 286-8010 and enter pass code 37589208.
Quote from: LiveLife on October 18, 2005, 08:07:05 PM
More good news for NVAX:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051018/phtu070.html?.v=1
..... Esprit will pay Novavax a minimum cash consideration of $12.5 million, $2.0 million which was paid today, $8.0 million payable by year-end 2005, and the remaining balance of $2.5 million payable at the first anniversary of the Agreement in October 2006...."
Huge NEWS!!! The stock closed up 11% in after hour trading at 3.26. Tomorrow this thing is going to FLY! And just to think this stock was trading at 0.80 back in August!!!
Good luck to all holding this one!
My theory on today's sell off:
After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated. There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions. This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.
Institutional/money managers bought all day long again with NO SELLING.
As long as accumulation by managers continue, I will hold, but take profit along the way ;)
If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back on dip.
Also, take a look at all the events coming together:
-Avian news coverage 24/7
-New CEO with MIT/Patents
-Bush, UN, WHO pushing need for vaccine (summit and conference with CEOs)
-Need for millions of vaccine doses
-NVAX cell culturing systems with 2 month production time
-Threat of mutation requiring new vaccine production
-More spreading of Avian
-$12 million Joint Venture
-Conference call tomorrow morning
-Presentation by CEO at Bio Investor Forum tomorrow
I mean, just look at this sequence of events!!!
More joint venture agreements, more licenses, more threat, more vaccine, possible merger/buy out. You think the Institution/money managers are thinking the same thing? You bet!
Good trading!
My theory on today's sell off:
After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated. There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions. This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.
Institutional/money managers bought all day long again with NO SELLING.
As long as accumulation by managers continue, I will hold, but take profit along the way ;)
If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back on dip.
Also, take a look at all the events coming together:
-Avian news coverage 24/7
-New CEO with MIT/Patents
-Bush, UN, WHO pushing need for vaccine (summit and conference with CEOs)
-Need for millions of vaccine doses
-NVAX cell culturing systems with 2 month production time
-Threat of mutation requiring new vaccine production
-More spreading of Avian
-$12 million Joint Venture
-Conference call tomorrow morning
-Presentation by CEO at Bio Investor Forum tomorrow
I mean, just look at this sequence of events!!!
More joint venture agreements, more licenses, more threat, more vaccine, possible merger/buy out. You think the Institution/money managers are thinking the same thing? You bet!
Good trading!
NEWS out:
Novavax Completes ESTRASORB Partnership
Tuesday October 18, 5:31 pm ET
MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) announced today that it has entered into a definitive license and supply agreement on ESTRASORB® (estradiol topical emulsion) with Esprit Pharma, a private specialty pharmaceutical company based in East Brunswick, NJ. Under the License Agreement, Esprit Pharma will obtain exclusive rights to market ESTRASORB in North America. Novavax will continue to manufacture ESTRASORB in its state-of-the-art pharmaceutical plant in Philadelphia. Esprit will pay Novavax a minimum cash consideration of $12.5 million, $2.0 million which was paid today, $8.0 million payable by year-end 2005, and the remaining balance of $2.5 million payable at the first anniversary of the Agreement in October 2006. Novavax will also receive a royalty on all net sales of ESTRASORB. Additionally, Esprit is obligated to pay Novavax certain milestone payments based on specific pre-determined net sales levels of ESTRASORB. This transaction today allows Novavax to continue to realize potential ESTRASORB marketing partnerships with other companies in international markets around the world.
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"We are delighted with our new partnership with Esprit and believe that ESTRASORB is in the right hands with the necessary resources to achieve its full potential in the marketplace," said Ray Hage, Senior Vice President and COO of Novavax. "John Spitznagel and his team at Esprit have a remarkable track record of success in launching new products and building pharmaceutical companies. An example is their most recent successful venture in ESP Pharma, which this management team built and sold to Protein Design Labs, Inc. for approximately $500 million. Under the new licensing deal structure announced today, Novavax shareholders will realize the benefits from the marketing success of ESTRASORB anticipated under Esprit management."
"We are very excited about adding ESTRASORB to our product portfolio," said John T. Spitznagel, Esprit's Chairman and CEO. "Novavax's unique micellar nanoparticle (MNP) technology platform delivers estrogen through the skin in a therapeutically effective and consumer friendly manner. The acquisition of ESTRASORB reflects our ongoing and growing commitment to women's healthcare. We view today's Licensing Agreement as the beginning of a longer-term relationship with the management team of Novavax. We intend to work with Novavax to explore further use of its technologies in expanding our product pipeline."
"This partnership is a watershed event for Novavax. It culminates our strategy of transitioning from a commercial business model and focusing on our core competency of product development," said Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO of Novavax, Inc. "This agreement further strengthens our balance sheet and puts us in a position to advance our promising pandemic (avian) flu vaccine program as well as several new product candidates utilizing our MNP technology into clinical development."
lalitha
Conference call highlights (mostly on Estrasorb. Some Avian issues. CEO to address Avian issues later today in San Francisco Bio Investor Forum):
- $12 million venture signed and done ($2 million payment made yesterday)
- Exclusive distribution of Estrasorb
- Have 3 solid financial firms backing NVAX
- Have 100 sales representatives in the field working with OB/GYN and health care services staff - this number will be "significantly" increased in the coming months to promote the products
- There are at least two other new products ready to launch
- Definite Avian virus play- nice ;)
- CEO on Avian vaccine response - NVAX has the large scale production process to produce the vaccine, once an effective vaccine is identified (customized vaccine for Avian)
- CEO believes that there is not an effective vaccine at the moment, but a customized vaccine for Avian is in the works, with NVAX having the process to mass produce, regardless of who develops the vaccine
- NVAX worked hard to find a large pharmaceutical to distribute Estrasorb, and King Pharmaceutical was a "mistake" and thus had a negative affect on NVAX. Found new partner to market the product
- Finding from prescribing physicians that Estrasorb is effective and female patients are confirming the effectiveness of the product and coming back
- Two new products will be launched in 2 weeks
- The overall hormonal replacement therapy taken orally (3/4 of market) is declining. Estrasorb uses transdermal (through skin) and transdermal delivery segment has been increasing
- NVAX will be spending more money on R&D for Avian virus (CEO will do more coverage at the Bio Investor Forum presentation)
- NVAX has contacts in the high-level government and this is important for NVAX to continue to work with the high-level government in regards to the government's response to the Avian pandemic threat and to secure CONTRACTS!!! - WOW, right from the CEO's mouth!!!
End of conference call.
WOW.
Good news for NVAX, can't wait for the Bio Investor Forum, but I gotta go to work.
I'll check the transcript of the presentation.
Good trading!
Conference call highlights (mostly on Estrasorb. Some Avian issues. CEO to address Avian issues later today in San Francisco Bio Investor Forum):
- $12 million venture signed and done ($2 million payment made yesterday)
- Exclusive distribution of Estrasorb
- Have 3 solid financial firms backing NVAX
- Have 100 sales representatives in the field working with OB/GYN and health care services staff - this number will be "significantly" increased in the coming months to promote the products
- There are at least two other new products ready to launch
- Definite Avian virus play- nice ;)
- CEO on Avian vaccine response - NVAX has the large scale production process to produce the vaccine, once an effective vaccine is identified (customized vaccine for Avian)
- CEO believes that there is not an effective vaccine at the moment, but a customized vaccine for Avian is in the works, with NVAX having the process to mass produce, regardless of who develops the vaccine
- NVAX worked hard to find a large pharmaceutical to distribute Estrasorb, and King Pharmaceutical was a "mistake" and thus had a negative affect on NVAX. Found new partner to market the product
- Finding from prescribing physicians that Estrasorb is effective and female patients are confirming the effectiveness of the product and coming back
- Two new products will be launched in 2 weeks
- The overall hormonal replacement therapy taken orally (3/4 of market) is declining. Estrasorb uses transdermal (through skin) and transdermal delivery segment has been increasing
- NVAX will be spending more money on R&D for Avian virus (CEO will do more coverage at the Bio Investor Forum presentation)
- NVAX has contacts in the high-level government and this is important for NVAX to continue to work with the high-level government in regards to the government's response to the Avian pandemic threat and to secure CONTRACTS!!! - WOW, right from the CEO's mouth!!!
End of conference call.
WOW.
Good news for NVAX, can't wait for the Bio Investor Forum, but I gotta go to work.
I'll check the transcript of the presentation.
Good trading!
http://www.genengnews.com/news/bnitem.aspx?name=1082684XSL_NEWSML_TO_NEWSML_WEB.xml
Esprit Pharma Acquires Exclusive North American Rights to ESTRASORB(R) Topical Emulsion; Sees Growing Pre-Eminence in Women's Healthcare
10/18/2005 6:18:00 PM EST
Esprit Pharma, Inc. today announced that it acquired exclusive North American rights to ESTRASORB(R) (estradiol topical emulsion) from Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX). A topical emulsion form of the naturally occurring hormone 17beta-estradiol, ESTRASORB is the first prescription topical emulsion for estrogen therapy.
Applied once daily to the legs, ESTRASORB is approved for the treatment of moderate to severe vasomotor symptoms (hot flashes) associated with menopause. The product utilizes Novavax's patented and proprietary micellar nanoparticle drug-delivery platform. This technology involves the application of a cosmetic like, moisturizing emulsion to deliver a therapeutic dose of 17beta-estradiol into the bloodstream when applied to the skin.
"We are very excited about adding ESTRASORB to our product portfolio," said John T. Spitznagel, Esprit's Chairman & CEO. "In addition to the product's unique technology platform which delivers estrogen therapy through the skin, thus bypassing the liver, the acquisition of ESTRASORB reflects our ongoing and growing commitment to our women's healthcare products. The licensing of ESTRASORB is the beginning of a longer-term strategic relationship with Novavax. We expect to work with Novavax to expand our product pipeline," continued Mr. Spitznagel.
"Together with our recently acquired PROQUIN(R) XR and PROSED(R) product lines, ESTRASORB strengthens our pre-eminence in the area of women's healthcare and offers substantial opportunities to realize benefits associated with product synergies," noted Mr. Spitznagel. He concluded saying, "Esprit is also in advanced discussions to acquire additional products in this specialty."
Commenting on today's announcement, Greg Stokes, President & COO of Esprit, stated, "ESTRASORB was approved for sale in late 2003 and launched by Novavax in mid 2004. Esprit will now re-launch and begin promoting ESTRASORB, taking advantage of our sales force and enhanced presence in women's healthcare."
Mr. Stokes further noted, "The product will compete in the non-systemic segment of the U.S. market for hormone replacement therapies (HRT) which is the only growing segment in the $1.5 billion U.S. HRT market. Moreover, research indicates that ESTRASORB is widely accepted by prescribers and patients due mainly to its transdermal route of administration."
"Given the product's delivery characteristics, plus the focused strength of our sales and marketing staff, backed by Esprit's dedication to medical education, we expect to realize substantial long-term growth in sales of ESTRASORB," concluded Mr. Stokes.
Financial terms of today's announced transaction were not disclosed.
About Esprit Pharma
Esprit Pharma is a niche oriented, forward thinking pharmaceutical company committed to improving patient outcomes and well-being within the Genito-urinary and women's health care fields. Led by a highly experienced management team, Esprit focuses on serving the unique needs of physicians by identifying opportunities and selectively acquiring and maximizing the potential of approved and late-stage development medicines and providing support through internal expertise and a dedication to medical education. A privately held company, Esprit has investment support from the leading healthcare venture capital and private equity firms of Domain Associates, LLC (http://www.domainvc.com), New Enterprise Associates (http://www.nea.com) and Apax Partners, Inc. (http://www.apax.com). For additional information visit the Company's Internet site at www.EspritPharma.com.
1918 one big bird flu, at that time millions died the disease took about 1 year to dissapear sure there was war and less medical help than now....i think nvax could be for the long term a multi bagger? any thoughts? the topic will stay hot over months i think.
CNBC confirmed that in Russia, there is a deadly bird flu located south of Moscow.
Great volume today! 18 million shares traded!
Another day of Institutional/money managers accumulating. There was some "sell request" activity but none of them actually ended up selling. Probably waiting to see how good/bad was the conference call/Bio Investor Forum presentation outcomes. (Light blue or pink indicators are "requests" only. Solid blue and red are actual buy/sell executions).
Great volume today! 18 million shares traded!
Another day of Institutional/money managers accumulating. There was some "sell request" activity but none of them actually ended up selling. Probably waiting to see how good/bad was the conference call/Bio Investor Forum presentation outcomes. (Light blue or pink indicators are "requests" only. Solid blue and red are actual buy/sell executions).
Here's the link to today's CEO presentation at the Bio Investor Forum 2005 in San Francisco:
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/confLobby.zhtml?ticker=NVAX&item_id=1147081
Here's the link to CEO presenting at Bio Investor Forum 2005 in San Francisco:
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/confLobby.zhtml?ticker=NVAX&item_id=1147081
Im not much of a fundamentals guy but here is a long,medium, and short term technical analysis of NVAX's price action.
-fousc
LONG TERM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6998;image)
MEDIUM TERM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6997;image)
SHORT TERM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6999;image)
WOW!!! What a terrific presentation!!! Nice going NVAX! This is HUGE!!!!
CEO addressed many excellent news and development which includes patented processes, proprietary product licenses good til 2015, FDA approvals, $12 million partnership, clinically proven effective nano-particle technology estrogen delivery (Estrasorb), new products getting released in 2 weeks, AND of course, AVIAN VACCINE!!!
NVAX has patented process for mass producing large yield vaccine in a very short period of time (2 months instead of 6 months by using egg), excess production capacity to handle new product line (or new Avian vaccine), using proprietary nano-particle technology to develop a single dose Avian vaccine, increased R&D money to develop vaccine that if effective against the new European strain of H5N1 Avian virus, already have contact with High-Level government/Bush administration working on Avian contracts!!!!!!!!!!
Here's the rest of the highlights from the presentation at Bio Investor Forum 2005 in San Francisco:
- Remarkable day for NVAX - major partnership deal Estrasorb and tremendous market response - 10's of millions of volume activity. Yes, we already know that ;)
- New management team and the transformation of NVAX
- New products (2 products to be released in 2 weeks)
- Avian vaccine and proprietary development
- Specialized contractor for NIH in the past and present
- Became CEO three months ago, worked with Merck for 10 years, developing vaccines! Oh my! :D
- Nano particle technology products
- Estrasorb distribution with King pharmaceutical was a mistake. New distribution is working.
- Licensing of Estrasorb product - patent good til 2015!!!
- Short term: Nano particle technology (small particle - transdermal) allows for quick penetration of skin entering the bloodstream and also moisturizes the skin to administer estrogen. Product stable at room temperature for 2 years. Patent til 2015. received FDA approval. $12.5 million deal with advance payment of $2 million. Already two licensed products
- Long term: Vaccine based on nano particle technology
- Avian flu development
- Have excess production capacity to bring new products to market - like Avian vaccine ;)
- Working on Osteoporosis and allergy drugs formulation that are transdemal to allow quick absorption of medication right to the affected area. Oral medication takes a long time to reach the affected area.
- Nano particle technology can be applied to the oral delivery of medications.
- Working to achieve full potential of the nano technology
- Avian flu - NVAX has received tremendous amount of attention for development of vaccine and mass production
- H5N1 has been mutating the past several years. Asian strain is different from the European strain. The vaccine developed for Asian strain DOES NOT work for the European strain
- NVAX going after a particular vaccine instead of soluble protein.
- Has proprietary process
- NVAX is working on a vaccine using the current H5N1 strain of virus
- Using nano particle technology to develop a single dose Avian vaccine.
- Rapid sealable bags for vaccine development. Low cost, high volume, excellent yield
WOW. What can I say?
Buy every share of NVAX you can.
I am 100% invested in NVAX now. Unless I can find a better stock, I am staying!
WOW!!! What a terrific presentation!!! Nice going NVAX! This is HUGE!!!!
CEO addressed many excellent news and development which includes patented processes, proprietary product licenses good til 2015, FDA approvals, $12 million partnership, clinically proven effective nano-particle technology estrogen delivery (Estrasorb), new products getting released in 2 weeks, AND of course, AVIAN VACCINE!!!
NVAX has patented process for mass producing large yield vaccine in a very short period of time (2 months instead of 6 months by using egg), excess production capacity to handle new product line (or new Avian vaccine), using proprietary nano-particle technology to develop a single dose Avian vaccine, increased R&D money to develop vaccine that if effective against the new European strain of H5N1 Avian virus, already have contact with High-Level government/Bush administration working on Avian contracts!!!!!!!!!!
Here's the rest of the highlights from the presentation at Bio Investor Forum 2005 in San Francisco:
- Remarkable day for NVAX - major partnership deal Estrasorb and tremendous market response - 10's of millions of volume activity. Yes, we already know that ;)
- New management team and the transformation of NVAX
- New products (2 products to be released in 2 weeks)
- Avian vaccine and proprietary development
- Specialized contractor for NIH in the past and present
- Became CEO three months ago, worked with Merck for 10 years, developing vaccines! Oh my! :D
- Nano particle technology products
- Estrasorb distribution with King pharmaceutical was a mistake. New distribution is working.
- Licensing of Estrasorb product - patent good til 2015!!!
- Short term: Nano particle technology (small particle - transdermal) allows for quick penetration of skin entering the bloodstream and also moisturizes the skin to administer estrogen. Product stable at room temperature for 2 years. Patent til 2015. received FDA approval. $12.5 million deal with advance payment of $2 million. Already two licensed products
- Long term: Vaccine based on nano particle technology
- Avian flu development
- Have excess production capacity to bring new products to market - like Avian vaccine ;)
- Working on Osteoporosis and allergy drugs formulation that are transdemal to allow quick absorption of medication right to the affected area. Oral medication takes a long time to reach the affected area.
- Nano particle technology can be applied to the oral delivery of medications.
- Working to achieve full potential of the nano technology
- Avian flu - NVAX has received tremendous amount of attention for development of vaccine and mass production
- H5N1 has been mutating the past several years. Asian strain is different from the European strain. The vaccine developed for Asian strain DOES NOT work for the European strain
- NVAX going after a particular vaccine instead of soluble protein.
- Has proprietary process
- NVAX is working on a vaccine using the current H5N1 strain of virus
- Using nano particle technology to develop a single dose Avian vaccine.
- Rapid sealable bags for vaccine development. Low cost, high volume, excellent yield
WOW. What can I say?
Dang, time to mortgage the house and buy every share of NVAX I can.
I am 100% invested in NVAX now. Unless I can find a better stock, I am staying!
UK planning "sleeping contract" for Avian vaccine:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh44190_2005-10-19_15-57-53_l19465910_newsml
UPDATE -UK plans mass vaccination against pandemic flu
Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:57 AM ET
UK planning "sleeping contract" for Avian vaccine:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh44190_2005-10-19_15-57-53_l19465910_newsml
UPDATE -UK plans mass vaccination against pandemic flu
Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:57 AM ET
(Updates with background, quotes, news conference)
By Patricia Reaney
LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Britain plans to buy enough vaccine to protect the entire population in case a deadly bird flu virus develops into a pandemic strain capable of killing millions of people, the government said on Wednesday.
Chief Medical Officer Liam Donaldson said vaccine manufacturers are being invited to tender contracts to supply 120 million doses, enough for two shots per person, once the pandemic strain is known.
"A vaccine to protect against pandemic flu cannot be made until the new virus is known," Donaldson said.
"We're asking vaccine companies to gear up to supply us with pandemic flu vaccine even though at this stage we can't give them the strain, nobody can," he told a news conference.
The move would put Britain at the front of the line in getting a vaccine if a pandemic emerged. Scientists believe a human flu pandemic is already overdue.
They are worried that the H5N1 bird flu virus that has been circulating in Asia since 1997, and has been reported in birds in Russia, Turkey and Romania, could evolve into a highly infectious strain in humans similar to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed as many as 50 million people worldwide.
Samples of a bird flu virus from a turkey in Greece are also being tested to see if it is lethal bird flu.
The H5N1 bird flu virus has jumped to humans and killed 60 people in Asia. Twice as many have been infected but so far it is not easily transmissible from person-to-person -- a prerequisite for a pandemic strain.
To become a pandemic strain the H5N1 bird flu would have to mutate on its own or mix its genetic material with a human influenza virus to become highly infectious in humans who would have little or no immunity against it.
SLEEPING CONTRACTS
An effective vaccine is the only measure that will defeat a human flu pandemic but it could take 4-6 months if a pandemic strain emerged to identify it and develop a vaccine.
Donaldson said the so-called sleeping contracts would be incentive for vaccine manufacturers to gear up to supply a vaccine because they would know they had the contract if a pandemic emerges.
"We regard pandemic flu as public health enemy number one and we are on the march against it," he said.
Several companies are working to develop a pandemic flu vaccine, including Sanofi-Aventis SA (SASY.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) , GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Chiron Corp (CHIR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) .
The move is the latest in Britain's contingency plans for dealing with a possible influenza pandemic. In March it announced that it was buying 14.6 million courses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu made by Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche (ROG.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) .
The stockpile, which will cost about 200 million pounds ($350.6 million), will be completed by September 2006.
The drug reduces the severity of flu and is considered a first line of defence until scientists can develop a vaccine.
The European Commission has advised member states to stockpile antiviral drugs. Officials also plan to hold talks with the vaccine manufacturers. (BIRDFLU-BRITAIN-VACCINE, editing by Steve Addison, Reuters Messaging:
[email protected]))
Thank for the great DD Livelife, especially the CC summary. I missed the boat on NVAX as I chose HEB instead (already holding SVA and EMFP). Waiting for a pullback tomorrow to get in. I was hoping it would pull back today but the news nixed any chance of that.
Glad to see institutions coming in big time. This will limit the big profit taking days which can be quite a white knickled ride. Are you really 100% invested. Wow, that is confidence.
Keep the tread going.
Logo
Thank you.
Yes, I cashed out last week when David sent his "cash out" alert.
But bought back NVAX on dip, all 100%, 11,000 shares.
Livelife,
Whatis the address of that site where you get the institutional buying info (Iwatch)? Can you provide a link so I can keep up to date? Thanks.
Logo
hi livelife
where do you get your charts for the institutional buying from?. i would love to check it out .
thanks
maxi ???
NVAX looks like it is gonna be a winner technically and fundamentally. Here is a Long term, Medium term, and Short term technical break down of NVAX's price action.
-fousc
LONG TERM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6998;image)
MEDIUM TERM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6997;image)
SHORT TERM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6999;image)
Good job for the NVAX chart fousc ...applaud..
Nice chart fousc!
logocovet, here's the link for Lycos I-watch. It defaults to 1 day, so change the time period to 1 week or 1 month to get the historical Institutional activity.
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nvax
rickjust, here's the link for Lycos I-watch. It defaults to 1 day, so change the time period to 1 week or 1 month to get the historical Institutional activity.
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nvax
50 day moving average breaking through 200 day moving average!
Would you look at the volume? What a beautiful sight! ;)
thanks livelife,
maxi ;D
NVAX volume leader on MSN for the week and month!
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=One-Week+High-Volume+Gainers&btnQryFrm=Go
NVAX volume leader on MSN for the week and month!
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=One-Week+High-Volume+Gainers&btnQryFrm=Go
QuoteAnother day of Institutional/money managers accumulating. There was some "sell request" activity but none of them actually ended up selling. Probably waiting to see how good/bad was the conference call/Bio Investor Forum presentation outcomes. (Light blue or pink indicators are "requests" only. Solid blue and red are actual buy/sell executions).
The I-Watch institutional data is interesting so appluad for sharing that data LiveLife. Just a word of caution though for others considering that data, the institutional buys (that are tracked) only constitute 1% to 3% of the overall volume for the period concerned (for the NVAX example, it will be different for other stocks).
Good Luck
Good Morning !
Thanks LiveLife (double applaud), for all your inputs on NVAX ;)
David will not be able to post the regular daily updates today. But he gave me instructions to Hold this position on NVAX.
I'll just post an updated chart.
Thank you AussieTrader and Frederick.
And yes, AussieTrader, I mentioned the small percentage of Institutional representation in the past posts (way back). I'll post that fact with the corresponding pie chart again later after work. The percentage of Institutional activity DOES fluctuate day by day, but the trend as a whole, the buy/sell activity of larger money manager (which I believe is the bulk of the activity any way) is still very interesting to observe.
NVAX keeps setting records and milestones each day. After being week/month volume leader, now first in ranking for increased institutional activity:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=Institutional%20Ownership%20Up%20Last%20Month
NVAX keeps setting records and milestones each day. After being week/month volume leader, now first in ranking for increased institutional activity:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=Institutional%20Ownership%20Up%20Last%20Month
(http://www.d2cents.com/blog/uploaded_images/2005.10.20-nvax-767464.gif) (http://www.d2cents.com/blog/uploaded_images/2005.10.20-nvax-767464.gif)
A "pennant" formation along with heavy accumulation this week hints to an almost certain breakout next week (if not Friday) resembling HOM's recent breakout (http://www.d2cents.com/blog/2005/10/hom-bullish-pennant-formation.html) after a similar chart pattern. This new breakout should surpass $4 and move NVAX into new highs within a 7-month timeframe. StockCharts.com (http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?nvax) gives NVAX a new bullish target of $8.50. Another VPHM in the making? Only time and patience will tell. My [2] cents.
I see we got some positive news for NVAX and all the great info on this thread, my thanks and applause's for that :)
I spent some time reading the last 10-Q from the company and I found one more of those medium size biotech companies, burning a lot of cash. Since the company was incorporated in 1987 and is publicly traded since 1995, it is just about time to start selling some and delivering profits !
The Avian Flu mania may make NVAX rise like a rocket, because at this point it doesn't really matter if anything bad is going to happen or not, governments from developed countries around the world are committed to buy vaccines just as an insurance policy, as you can read on the article above.
The more I read the more I get confused and my business isn't knowing every aspect of trials and medicines, my business is speculation.
As a speculator I know at least one thing: the trend is my friend. For NVAX the ascending trend is defined by TL2 on the chart below. TL2 rises $0.07 per trading day and tomorrow it will be standing at $2.56.
I will hold NVAX for as long as it closes above TL2.
As a matter of fact, I've been thinking for some weeks now and I may change my strategy a bit, not only holding stocks for as long as they have an ascending trend, but also add to my position on every support touch. Something to think better over the coming days, because this would increase the risk of the overall portfolio.
Thanks for the link Livelife. It is impressive, but LYCO's also says that institutions only account for 1% of the volume. Should we put very much weight on it?
NVAX didn't dip far enough for me to get in today. Waiting for $3 or under (lets hope). NVAX showed relative strength compared to the sector (SVA, HEB, BCRX, GNBT). I do think institutional accumulation has a part in this. I stopped out of my EMFP position as it dropped by more than 20% today.
The bird flu story is far from over. It definately seems that news of outbreaks in Europe is the greatest mover of sector stock prices. News came out yesterday that China admitted to a new bird flu outbreak and SVA dropped both yesterday and today. Today, news came out about a death in Thailand that could be human to human transmission yet volume in the sector was low. (unfortunately, investors seem to care little about Asia).
I think the real gains in the sector will come with flu season in the U.S. This is when real panic will begin as the possibility of mutation grows.
[D] Investor, thanks for the chart. Keep posting away!
Good evening,
Dow -133.03 (-1.28%) Nasdaq -23.13 (-1.11%)
As I posted before, we are in a "bearish" market trend. If you are uncomfortable trading during this time, you can cash out and wait for the bull market return.
For those that want to stay in, today was another sales day.
Institutional/money managers once again accumulated all day long. The volume was smaller at 4.8 million shares, but strong stocks like SVA only moved 1 million shares. NVAX lost $0.11, but SVA lost $0.58. We must take into account of the sectorwide and marketwide activities for today's "small" loss.
Logocovet, yes, Lycos displays Institutional and other larger money manager activities that I-Watch monitors. If you check my previous post and table, NVAX had the highest Institutional gain this week. I'll post the breakdown pie chart also from now on.
Those that wanted to buy, today should have provided plenty of buying opportunities.
So what now, if you are holding NVAX shares?
I am still with the managers. I will hold until I realize a nice gain that hits my current sell target (my initial buy in is $2.02) and buy back more shares at same $$ on dip or cash all out when I see managers selling.
Welcome back David, hope you had nice time off ;)
Good evening,
Dow -133.03 (-1.28%) Nasdaq -23.13 (-1.11%)
As I posted before, we are in a "bearish" market trend. If you are uncomfortable trading during this time, cash out and wait for the bull market return.
For those that want to stay in, today was another sales day.
Institutional/money managers once again accumulated all day long. The volume was smaller at 4.8 million shares, but strong stocks like SVA only moved 1 million shares. NVAX lost $0.11, but SVA lost $0.58. We must take into account of the sectorwide and marketwide activities for today's "small" loss.
AussieTrader, yes, Lycos displays Institutional and other larger money manager activities that I-Watch monitors. If you check my previous post and table, NVAX had the highest Institutional gain this week. I'll post the breakdown pie chart also from now on.
Those that wanted to buy, today should have provided plenty of buying opportunities.
I thought about another thing. In addition to Lycos I-watch, what if we follow the volume ranking? This should give you a picture as to how NVAX is doing compared to other stocks in the week/month ranking. If the volume trails down and there is another stock that is trailing up, then that would indicate something significant. And perhaps we should check out the stock that is trailing up.
I thought about another thing. In addition to Lycos I-watch, what if we follow the volume ranking? This should give you a picture as to how NVAX is doing compared to other stocks in the week/month ranking. If the volume trails down and there is another stock that is trailing up, then that would indicate something significant. And perhaps we should check out the stock that is trailing up.
Here's an insider buy/sell activity post from Yahoo MB. Thanks gunboat1919!
So could it be that insiders were buying and accumulating all last week and this week also? If it is, then this is good news!
http://insidercow.com/history/insider.jsp?Cik=0001191410&company=NVAX&name=EVANS%20GARY%20C&title=%20director
Here's an insider buy/sell activity post from Yahoo MB. Thanks gunboat1919!
So could it be that insiders were buying and accumulating all last week and this week also? If it is, then this is good news!
http://insidercow.com/history/insider.jsp?Cik=0001191410&company=NVAX&name=EVANS%20GARY%20C&title=%20director
LiveLife,
Maybe you can help me out. I am not seeing insiders buying last week. the last date on that chart is 13 SEP 05.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4362864.stm
Roche to license bird flu drugs
Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche has asked generic drug firms to help speed up the manufacture of a key anti-viral ahead of a feared bird flu pandemic.
Demand has soared for the drug Tamiflu, which works against the H5N1 avian flu strain causing concern at the moment.
"We will have much more Tamiflu available than if Roche produced it itself," said New York Senator Charles Schumer after talks with Roche.
The firms Teva, Barr, Mylan and Ranbaxy aim to start production within a month.
'In a timely manner'
"Roche has agreed to meet with these companies as soon as possible, as early as next week, and to meet with additional companies which might also be interested in making Tamiflu," said Mr Schumer after his meeting with George Abercrombie, head of Roche's US operations.
Roche is keen to ensure the generic drug firms are able to produce sufficient quantities of Tamiflu before they grant them a license to do so.
"We want to be sure that they can produce substantial amounts of Tamiflu for pandemic use in a timely manner in accordance with appropriate quality specifications, safety and regulatory guidelines," the company said.
Demand for the drug is by far outstripping demand, even though Roche has doubled production every year for three years.
By next summer, the company will have boosted its output eightfold when compared with 2004.
Forty governments have placed massive orders to protect their populations in case the bird flu virus mutates into a form where it poses a serious threat to human health.
Companies are also placing orders to protect their workforce.
http://www.washtimes.com//business/20051020-105955-8323r.htm
The maker of Tamiflu yesterday agreed to increase supplies of the flu drug and negotiate potential production deals with four manufacturers.
Hoffman-La Roche Inc., the Nutley, N.J., subsidiary of Swiss drug company F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., agreed to meet with the companies to discuss licensing Tamiflu production to meet high demand for the drug.
Tamiflu, which is manufactured only by Roche, is considered to be the only viable drug treatment against a possible bird-flu pandemic.
"Roche has graciously stepped up to the plate, and has essentially agreed to share its technology and the rights to manufacture this drug with other companies who are willing to help out," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, who has pressured Roche to license production of the drug to meet worldwide demand.
Sens. Schumer and Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, met with Roche President and Chief Executive George Abercrombie yesterday to discuss licensing Tamiflu production.
"We discussed with them our previously announced intentions to meet with companies that may be able to assist in manufacturing additional supplies of Tamiflu," Mr. Abercrombie said.
He would not say when Roche would meet with the other drug companies: Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd., Barr Laboratories Inc., Mylan Laboratories Inc. and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.
Roche's representatives did not return calls for comment.
Earlier this week, Roche said it would build a new U.S. plant to increase Tamiflu production amid fears of a major bird-flu outbreak.
Roche also agreed to negotiate "equitable terms" with companies that can produce enough of the drug to meet government demand, Mr. Schumer said.
The federal government has about 2.3 million Tamiflu doses in storage and plans to have 2 million more by December, with the ultimate goal of stockpiling enough to treat 25 percent of the nation's population, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.
Concern about the deadly strain of bird flu centers on scientists' fears that it may mutate into a form that passes easily among humans, sparking a pandemic that might kill millions.
A 48-year-old Thai man became the 67th person known to have been killed by the bird-flu virus, officials said yesterday.
All the human deaths from avian flu so far have occurred in Asia, but the lethal virus was detected this month in birds in Russia, Turkey and Romania.
In Brussels yesterday, the European Union adopted fresh measures to fight the virus, banning live birds from markets or exhibitions without permission.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4362864.stm
Roche to license bird flu drugs
Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche has asked generic drug firms to help speed up the manufacture of a key anti-viral ahead of a feared bird flu pandemic.
Demand has soared for the drug Tamiflu, which works against the H5N1 avian flu strain causing concern at the moment.
"We will have much more Tamiflu available than if Roche produced it itself," said New York Senator Charles Schumer after talks with Roche.
The firms Teva, Barr, Mylan and Ranbaxy aim to start production within a month.
'In a timely manner'
"Roche has agreed to meet with these companies as soon as possible, as early as next week, and to meet with additional companies which might also be interested in making Tamiflu," said Mr Schumer after his meeting with George Abercrombie, head of Roche's US operations.
Roche is keen to ensure the generic drug firms are able to produce sufficient quantities of Tamiflu before they grant them a license to do so.
"We want to be sure that they can produce substantial amounts of Tamiflu for pandemic use in a timely manner in accordance with appropriate quality specifications, safety and regulatory guidelines," the company said.
Demand for the drug is by far outstripping demand, even though Roche has doubled production every year for three years.
By next summer, the company will have boosted its output eightfold when compared with 2004.
Forty governments have placed massive orders to protect their populations in case the bird flu virus mutates into a form where it poses a serious threat to human health.
Companies are also placing orders to protect their workforce.
http://www.washtimes.com//business/20051020-105955-8323r.htm
The maker of Tamiflu yesterday agreed to increase supplies of the flu drug and negotiate potential production deals with four manufacturers.
Hoffman-La Roche Inc., the Nutley, N.J., subsidiary of Swiss drug company F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., agreed to meet with the companies to discuss licensing Tamiflu production to meet high demand for the drug.
Tamiflu, which is manufactured only by Roche, is considered to be the only viable drug treatment against a possible bird-flu pandemic.
"Roche has graciously stepped up to the plate, and has essentially agreed to share its technology and the rights to manufacture this drug with other companies who are willing to help out," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, who has pressured Roche to license production of the drug to meet worldwide demand.
Sens. Schumer and Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, met with Roche President and Chief Executive George Abercrombie yesterday to discuss licensing Tamiflu production.
"We discussed with them our previously announced intentions to meet with companies that may be able to assist in manufacturing additional supplies of Tamiflu," Mr. Abercrombie said.
He would not say when Roche would meet with the other drug companies: Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd., Barr Laboratories Inc., Mylan Laboratories Inc. and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.
Roche's representatives did not return calls for comment.
Earlier this week, Roche said it would build a new U.S. plant to increase Tamiflu production amid fears of a major bird-flu outbreak.
Roche also agreed to negotiate "equitable terms" with companies that can produce enough of the drug to meet government demand, Mr. Schumer said.
The federal government has about 2.3 million Tamiflu doses in storage and plans to have 2 million more by December, with the ultimate goal of stockpiling enough to treat 25 percent of the nation's population, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.
Concern about the deadly strain of bird flu centers on scientists' fears that it may mutate into a form that passes easily among humans, sparking a pandemic that might kill millions.
A 48-year-old Thai man became the 67th person known to have been killed by the bird-flu virus, officials said yesterday.
All the human deaths from avian flu so far have occurred in Asia, but the lethal virus was detected this month in birds in Russia, Turkey and Romania.
In Brussels yesterday, the European Union adopted fresh measures to fight the virus, banning live birds from markets or exhibitions without permission.
Upgraded this morning.
*DJ RBC Raises Novavax To Sector Perform From Underperf >NVAX
10/21/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-21-05 0803ET
Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Also, Nigeria Bird Flu evidence
Nigeria braces for bird flu
LAGOS (AFP) - Nigeria has sent veterinary scientists to its northern wetlands to inspect migrating birds for signs of the deadly strain of bird flu which experts fear could spark a global epidemic, officials said.
Most of Nigeria's 130-million-strong population live packed into teeming cities, its health services are in a shambolic state and experts fear that if avian flu mutates into a human disease it could trigger a devastating epidemic.
Even the current H5N1 version of the virus -- which has killed 60 people in east Asia and been detected as far away as Turkey, Russia and Romania -- could cause panic and massive disruption to Nigeria's large poultry farming industry.
"We have taken blood samples from birds at poultry farms in the country to find out if any of them have the virus, but the result is zero," Dr Lami Lombin, the director of Nigeria's National Veterinary Research Institute, told AFP.
"We are also looking at the migrating or wandering birds. From next week, we will send experts to wetlands in Bauchi, Jigawa and Yobe states to carry out tests on those birds," she added.
Wild birds from Europe and central Asia, migrating to and from southern Africa to avoid the northern hemisphere's winter, congregate in northern Nigeria to rest and feed before and after their long flight across the Sahara Desert.
Dr Junaidu Maina, deputy head of animal health at Nigeria's agriculture ministry, said that a plan had been put in place to minimise the risks of bird flu infection and to contain any outbreaks.
"We alerted all the animal health offices in the federation, particularly those in Guru wetland," he said, adding that samples from dead birds would be sent to a veterinary institute in the northern city of Jos, where they can be checked for bird flu.
Pamphlets have been prepared to warn farmers of the danger, poultry imports from infected countries will be banned and quarantine rules will be stiffened, he added.
"Most especially, in the event of an outbreak the strategy we are going to apply is to kill all the birds in an infected area in a three kilometre radius, and pay compensation," he said
se7en and poorman1, thanks for the post. Should be an exciting day for NVAX after yesterday's "sales" day for the sector and the market.
patriotmp,
Lycos I-watch is "live" activity and it defaults to 1 day.
Change the time period to "1 week" or "1 month" and you should see the archive buy/sell activities of institutional/money manager requests and executions that I-watch monitors.
Light blue or pink are requests and solid blue or red are actually executions. They must do this because it is difficult to move large 100K - 300K blocks of shares and they send the requests out to brokerages to "gather" enough buyers and sellers prior to executions.
Often, there are many requests, but no executions. That indicates that either requests were cancelled or there weren't enough buyers/sellers the brokerages could gather to execute the requests.
Here's the link again:
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nvax
Duplicate post from premiun NVAX board today:
"se7en and poorman1 thanks for the posts. Should be an exciting day for NVAX after yesterday's "sales" day for the sector and the market.
patriotmp,
Lycos I-watch is "live" activity and it defaults to 1 day.
Change the time period to "1 week" or "1 month" and you should see the archive buy/sell activities of institutional/money manager requests and executions that I-watch monitors.
Light blue or pink are requests and solid blue or red are actually executions. They must do this because it is difficult to move large 100K - 300K blocks of shares and they send the requests out to brokerages to "gather" enough buyers or sellers prior to executions.
Often, there are many requests, but no executions. That indicates that either requests were cancelled or there weren't enough buyers/sellers the brokerages could gather to execute the requests.
Here's the link again:"
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nvax
Quote from: LiveLife on October 21, 2005, 09:48:51 AM
Light blue or pink are requests and solid blue or red are actually executions.
I have seen some dark black arrows show up lately on some views. Any explanation for that color?
NVAX: RBC Capital Ups to Sector Perform from Underperform; Analyst Notes
Friday , October 21, 2005 07:51 ET
Issuer: Novavax, Inc. (NasdaqNM: NVAX)
Analyst Firm: RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Sector Perform (from Underperform)
Analyst Comments: The firm based their upgrade on recently announced license and supply agreement with Esprit Pharma for NVAX's Estrasorb, a topical estrogen therapy. They think the deal was essential to NVAX because it provides the company with much needed capital.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.c7866aa4b8c6060149389d624153027f4debee73798d43109267a261b3ada8e4
NVAX: RBC Capital Ups to Sector Perform from Underperform; Analyst Notes
Friday , October 21, 2005 07:51 ET
Issuer: Novavax, Inc. (NasdaqNM: NVAX)
Analyst Firm: RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Sector Perform (from Underperform)
Analyst Comments: The firm based their upgrade on recently announced license and supply agreement with Esprit Pharma for NVAX's Estrasorb, a topical estrogen therapy. They think the deal was essential to NVAX because it provides the company with much needed capital.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.c7866aa4b8c6060149389d624153027f4debee73798d43109267a261b3ada8e4
What a nice day for NVAX! Good post La-onda, nice upgrade on NVAX!
13.5 million shares traded with a steady gains all day long!
Yes, I cancelled my limit sell of $3.50 early this morning before work.
Another day of accumulation of Institutional/money managers:
What a nice day for NVAX! Good post La-onda, nice upgrade on NVAX!
SmartWrasse, I haven't seen black marks before. Perhaps they are cancellations of requests. If I find out, I'll post here.
13.5 million shars traded with a steady gains all day long!
Yes, I cancelled my limit sell of $3.50 early this morning before work.
Another day of accumulation of Institutional/money managers:
Still the volume leader for the week/month!
Still volume leader for the week/month!
50 MA broke through 200 MA! Perhaps this was the reason for the analyst upgrade?
Then, more analyst upgrades to follow! Thanks my_name_iz_earl for the charts!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20051021/sc_space/deadlyfluwillreachussaysbirdmigrationexpert
Deadly Flu Will Reach U.S., Says Bird Migration Expert
50 MA broke through 200 MA! Perhaps this was the reason for the analyst upgrade.
Then, more analyst upgrades to come! Thanks my_name_iz_earl for the charts!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20051021/sc_space/deadlyfluwillreachussaysbirdmigrationexpert
Deadly Flu Will Reach U.S., Says Bird Migration Expert
Robert Roy Britt
LiveScience Managing Editor
LiveScience.com Fri Oct 21,12:00 PM ET
An expert in bird migration patterns said today it is only a matter of time before the avian flu virus reaches the United States and the rest of North America.
No corner of the planet is immune, he said.
"By knowing the migratory patterns of birds and areas where species overlap while traveling between their breeding sites and winter grounds, one can predict precisely where problems will occur," said Thomas Van't Hof, an ornithologist at Wright State University in Ohio.
The avian flu, which has spread from Asia to Europe, has only grudgingly infected humans, killing an estimate 61 people.
But officials fear it may soon morph into a strain that could be passed easily between people. The
World Health Organization recently warned that "the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic."
"The disease will probably end up in Africa this year," Van't Hof told LiveScience. "This is very likely to happen."
It is harder to say when it will hop the Atlantic, he said, but that could happen next year, based on known migration patterns.
The flying flu
Birds migrating south from China likely made contact with species in Bangladesh and Burma that were migrating west through southern India to Turkey, Van't Hof explains. This is how the virus reached Russia and Eastern Europe.
Birds from Europe are now flying south through Turkey. Soon, Africa will be exposed.
Next spring, when infected birds migrate to the Arctic to nest, they will mix with birds from North America, Van't Hof explained.
The virus is carried by waterfowl, which migrate long distances, increasingly the likelihood it will spread around the globe. How quickly it reaches North America will depend on how many infected birds mix with other fowl in nesting areas, and how close the nests are to each other. But eventually, it will spread.
"There is really no populated area of the world that will be immune," Van't Hof said.
Poised to morph
There are many flu strains. The one topping health officials worry list right now is called H5N1.
Most of the cases of human infection by H5N1, dating back to 1997, have involved people who handled infected poultry or touched contaminated surfaces, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (
CDC).
But officials are now very concerned that it will morph into a variety that can be transmitted easily between people, thus fueling a potential pandemic like one that occurred in 1918, when up to 50 million people died worldwide.
"Because all influenza viruses have the ability to change, scientists are concerned that the H5N1 virus one day could be able to infect humans and spread easily from one person to another," according to a CDC statement. "If the H5N1 virus were able to infect people and spread easily from person to person, an influenza pandemic (worldwide outbreak of disease) could begin."
Watch the skies
The avian flu has shown up in at least 16 countries, killing more than 100 million birds.
Knowing what to expect, and when, should help officials plan for the inevitable, Van't Hof said.
He added that there is a good database of migration patterns available for health officials to study. They can look at specific marshes in the North where species mingle, then find the places those birds will return to when they fly south.
"The more precisely we know the migratory patterns of birds, the better we can predict where exposure will occur," he said. "We can then be better prepared if the virus should mutate to a form that will infect humans."
Currently, there is no vaccine to protect humans from H5N1, but scientists around the world are working on it, the CDC says.
* Bird Flu Pandemic Imminent, Health Official Says
* Scientists Recreate 1918 Flu Virus From Scratch
* Trojan Ducks: One More Possible Flu Carrier
Visit LiveScience.com for more daily news, views and scientific inquiry with an original, provocative point of view. LiveScience reports amazing, real world breakthroughs, made simple and stimulating for people on the go. Check out our collection of Amazing Images, Image Galleries, Interactive Features, Trivia and more. Sign up for our free daily email newsletter today!
This is from Novavax website on vaccine pipeline: Thanks mnecklstring for the link!
http://www.novavax.com/html/avian_flu_vlp.html
"Avian (Pandemic) Flu VLP Vaccine
Given concerns regarding the appearance of avian flu in Asia there is greater urgency to develop a vaccine to avoid a pandemic. So far the disease is largely contained to poultry. However, the few human cases reported were highly lethal.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has given Novavax a grant to develop an avian flu vaccine using our VLP technology. Using cloned genes, we have produced a VLP flu vaccine which we have sent on to the Center for Disease Control (CDC) for animal testing. The VLP vaccine findings in mice reported by the CDC in September 2004 showed that it was safe, immunogenic (created an immune response) and protective."
This is from Novavax website on vaccine pipeline: Thanks mnecklstring for the link!
http://www.novavax.com/html/avian_flu_vlp.html
"Avian (Pandemic) Flu VLP Vaccine
Given concerns regarding the appearance of avian flu in Asia there is greater urgency to develop a vaccine to avoid a pandemic. So far the disease is largely contained to poultry. However, the few human cases reported were highly lethal.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has given Novavax a grant to develop an avian flu vaccine using our VLP technology. Using cloned genes, we have produced a VLP flu vaccine which we have sent on to the Center for Disease Control (CDC) for animal testing. The VLP vaccine findings in mice reported by the CDC in September 2004 showed that it was safe, immunogenic (created an immune response) and protective."
This is also from Novavax website on list of vaccines:
This is also from Novavax website on list of vaccines:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1598102,00.html
Parrot that died in UK quarantine diagnosed with avian flu
http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1598102,00.html
Parrot that died in UK quarantine diagnosed with avian flu
James Meikle and Robert Booth
Saturday October 22, 2005
The Guardian
The arrival of a highly pathogenic form of avian flu in Britain was confirmed last night as veterinary officials revealed that a parrot that died in quarantine had the disease.
The parrot, part of a consignment from Surinam in South America, was among birds sharing space in a biosecure unit with another consignment from Taiwan. A "small number" of people who had been in contact with the birds have been given anti-viral treatment.
Article continues
Debby Reynolds, the chief vet, said the case would not affect Britain's disease-free status as she revealed more than 360 birds had been culled. "It is very difficult for humans to contract avian influenza. However, the necessary actions to protect human health have been taken in this instance," she said.
Tests have yet to confirm whether the parrot, which was imported into Britain in September and died three days ago, succumbed to the feared H5N1 form, although it is known the virus was one of the H5 types.
Ms Reynolds said: "I don't intend to speculate on the N-type until I have formal, official confirmation of this." She moved to calm any possible panic, stressing that the incident confirmed the strength of Britain's quarantine rules, but questions were immediately raised about the danger from illegally traded pet birds.
Fears are growing the H5N1 virus, which has caused chaos among flocks in south-east Asia and killed more than 60 people in close contact with poultry flocks, might mutate into a deadly human pandemic strain.
In recent weeks the virus has been spreading westward across Russia, Turkey and into Europe. Last night, Croatia confirmed a case of the deadly form of the disease.
Bob McCracken, a former president of the British Veterinary Association, said: "The incidents of bird flu in eastern Europe have been a warning and this will be another. The virus is not too far away in migrating wild birds or the pet bird population. Pet birds must go through quarantine to make sure there is no illegal trade." He added that the presence of birds from Taiwan in the same unit as those from South America would suggest that authorities should work on the basis that the bird flu was a form of the H5N1 virus. "We have been very fortunate the system has worked," said Dr McCracken.
Ms Reynolds would not reveal where the quarantine unit where the parrot died was. She said it was part of a mixed consignment of 148 parrots and soft-billed birds although she could not say where they were headed. Another bird that died did not test positive.
Scenes like these will be the "daily ponder" for many as Avian flu spreads all over the world. Migrating flocks of birds and disinfection of vehicles of affected/quarantined areas:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/22/birdflu.main/index.html
Scenes like these will be the "daily ponder" for many as Avian spreads all over the world. Migrating flocks of birds and disinfection of vehicles of affected/quarantined areas:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/22/birdflu.main/index.html
This has been a great pick, also a great looking running thread on this stock. ;)
I am going to take the time and applaud everyone here.
• Novavax upgraded by RBC Capital Mkts
Briefing.com (Fri 7:42am)
The 50-day EMA crossing over the 200-day EMA.
If a Golden Cross means anything,we have one taking place in this stock.
When a shorter moving average like the 50-day crosses above a longer one like the 200-day it is a major buy signal. In Japan this signal is called a "Golden Cross." The reverse is called a "Dead Cross" and it is a sell signal. Using moving average crossovers takes the subjective part of chart reading, as this is just pure math in determining the trend. When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day it's a signal to go long.
Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
34.55%above 13-day EMA
90.52%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrade to Sector Perform
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $111.93
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 11/09/2005
Last Analyst Rating: Sector
I will be a buyer on Monday at the open. ;D
Thank you setravis, for your support = return applaud =
As a fellow ex-service man, I believe in professional, "facts-only" postings as much as possible.
I like the phrase of fellow poster here "Fail to plan, plan to fail" ... So true!
Well, we are planning for the Avian threat by supporting this company and letting the word out. I have been supporting the Yahoo Message Board NVAX thread.
For the traders (short-term and long-term) AND investors, and even swing traders like me, ;) NVAX, I believe is a solid play that may follow in the footsteps of VPHM (like the message thread is titled - how coincidental or perhaps "destined" is that?)
With the attention and coverage NVAX is receiving right now, next week looks to be very promising for NVAX, even despite the current "bearish" market conditions.
We broke through the 200 day moving average on Friday and received an analyst upgrade! NVAX is still the week and month volume leader with the highest Institutional gain activity! In a still "bearish" market conditions, $0.54 gain on Friday that was a consistent and gradual climb all day with continued accumulation by Institutional/money managers with no selling activity demonstrates the strength of this stock.
As a swing trader, I am constantly re-adjusting my sell target, and becoming more and more relaxed to allow the stock to gain in price. NVAX is gradually making me a "long-term" holder from a short-term swing trader.
Good trading!
With the attention and coverage NVAX is receiving right now, next week looks to be very promising for NVAX, even despite the current "bearish" market conditions.
We broke through the 200 day moving average on Friday and received an analyst upgrade! NVAX is still the week and month volume leader with the highest Institutional gain activity! In a still "bearish" market conditions, $0.54 gain on Friday that was a consistent and gradual climb all day with continued accumulation by Institutional/money manager with no selling activity demonstrating the strength of this stock.
As a swing trader, I am constantly re-adjusting my sell target, and becoming more and more relaxed to allow the stock gain in price. NVAX is gradually making me a "long-term" holder from a short-term swing trader.
Good trading!
Zacks.com Announces That Gregory Spear Highlights the Following Stocks: Novavax, Vical, and Crucell
BusinessWire
All Business Wire News
Gregory Spear and his team, from the Spear's Security Industry Analyst newsletter, offer insight on three avian flu related stocks. Learn about Novavax NVAX, Vical VICL, and Crucell CRXL. Click here for the full story exclusively on Zacks.com: http://at.zacks.com/?id=84
Highlights from the October 19 Featured Expert column by Gregory Spear include:
Commentary
The bird flu stocks are definitely experiencing a mini-mania and that creates a certain danger, especially for stocks of companies that don't have P/E ratios greater than zero. Momentum traders are notoriously fickle and momentum always operates in both directions, up and down. Thus, several of Gregory Spear and his team's new buys have limits on them.
That said, one of the avian flu companies Spear and his team have been watching, Novavax NVAX, experienced a volume surge late in the day on Monday suggestive of institutional accumulation. Why? In a study published in the medical journal Vaccine, researchers found that Novavax`s Virus-Like Particle, or VLP, flu vaccine protected animals that were exposed to a strain of avian flu. The VLP components are nano-sized proteins synthesized from cloned virus genes that quickly stimulate an immune reaction. Moreover, their VLP technology uses a scalable, high volume manufacturing process with short production lead times.
Vical VICL is working on a variety of vaccines using a proprietary DNA technology. Conventional vaccine development and manufacturing technologies are slow, often taking several years to refine and ramp up after the emergence of a new pathogen. Vical's DNA processes allow initial production of vaccines much more quickly, in as little as 3 months. The company has also received funding from DARPA to scale up manufacturing processes, potentially allowing production of millions of doses in a matter of weeks.
Crucell CRXL owns patents on the most efficient way to make commercial quantities of vaccines without injecting chicken eggs. The company provides vaccine technology and services to 40 partners worldwide, including most of the large players like Merck, Sanofi-Aventis and GlaxoSmithKline. Crucell reported great revenue gains and a lower loss in the most recent quarter.
Read Gregory Spear's complete commentary and take a look at other stocks by clicking: http://at.zacks.com/?id=85
About Zacks Featured Experts
Successful investing requires professional advice from knowledgeable experts who can help investors achieve their financial goals in good markets and improve their portfolios, especially in bad ones. That is why Zacks Investment Research has assembled the best investment experts in the business to offer their powerful advisory newsletters on all the major investment topics: Stocks, Mutual Funds, Bonds, Options, Futures etc.
Additional recommendations from Zacks.com Featured Experts are highlighted in the free investment newsletter, Profit from the Pros. Each issue highlights several Featured Experts in this free e-mail newsletter. Register for a free subscription to "Profit from the Pros" at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=86
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http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Feed=BW&Date=20051021&ID=5212296&Symbol=US:NVAX
Check out this PDF report on Avian "An Economist View Of A Pandemic Flu": Thanks vrossi7 for the link!
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20051011/dont_fear_fear.pdf
Check out this PDF report on Avian "An Economist View Of A Pandemic Flu": Thanks vrossi7 for the link!
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20051011/dont_fear_fear.pdf
shaka88 thanks for the post!
News traveling fast! These "alerts and reports" will be flying for days and weeks to come.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Feed=BW&Date=20051021&ID=5212296&Symbol=US:NVAX
"... one of the avian flu companies Spear and his team have been watching, Novavax NVAX, experienced a volume surge late in the day on Monday suggestive of institutional accumulation. Why? In a study published in the medical journal Vaccine, researchers found that Novavax`s Virus-Like Particle, or VLP, flu vaccine protected animals that were exposed to a strain of avian flu. The VLP components are nano-sized proteins synthesized from cloned virus genes that quickly stimulate an immune reaction. Moreover, their VLP technology uses a scalable, high volume manufacturing process with short production lead times."
shaka88 thanks for the post!
News traveling fast! These "alerts and reports" will be flying for days and weeks to come.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Feed=BW&Date=20051021&ID=5212296&Symbol=US:NVAX
"... one of the avian flu companies Spear and his team have been watching, Novavax NVAX, experienced a volume surge late in the day on Monday suggestive of institutional accumulation. Why? In a study published in the medical journal Vaccine, researchers found that Novavax`s Virus-Like Particle, or VLP, flu vaccine protected animals that were exposed to a strain of avian flu. The VLP components are nano-sized proteins synthesized from cloned virus genes that quickly stimulate an immune reaction. Moreover, their VLP technology uses a scalable, high volume manufacturing process with short production lead times."
Avian may be spreading more: Thanks prudentman007 for the link!
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13452570,00.html
BIRD FLU HITS SWEDEN
Bird flu has been discovered in Sweden but scientists have yet to confirm whether it is the deadly H5N1 strain.
Avian may be spreading more: Thanks prudentman007 for the link!
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13452570,00.html
BIRD FLU HITS SWEDEN
Bird flu has been discovered in Sweden but scientists have yet to confirm whether it is the deadly H5N1 strain.
Sweden's National Veterinary Institute said a duck found dead east of the capital has tested positive for avian flu. Confirmation of the exact strain is due tomorrow.
The news comes shortly after the British government called for a ban on the trade of all live birds in the EU in a bid to stem the spread of the virus.
Meanwhile, experts are carrying out tests on a parrot found to have died from Britain's first case of bird flu - but the Government and the EU insist the UK still has disease-free status.
The parrot was in quarantine when it died of the H5 strain of the virus and scientists are trying to confirm whether it was the feared H5N1 strain that is deadly to humans.
Chief Veterinary Officer Debby Reynolds said: "The confirmed case does not affect the UK's official disease free status because the disease has been identified in imported birds during quarantine."
More than 300 birds which were being held in a biosecure quarantine unit at an undisclosed location have been humanely culled.
The parrot was part of a mixed consignment of 148 birds that arrived from Suriname, South America on September 16. They were being held with 216 birds from Taiwan.
H5N1, which has infected over 100 people, killing 60 of them, recently spread into Romania, Turkey and Russia.
The H5 strain has also been confirmed in Croatia.
Dr Reynolds said the "incident showed the importance of the UK's quarantine system".
The last time a case of avian flu was confirmed in Britain was 1992.
It is a highly-infectious viral disease which affects poultry, pigeons and other birds and varies in severity, from causing no deaths to killing entire flocks in hours.
It is most easily spread through bird secretions, particularly faeces, but can also be passed via objects contaminated by an infected bird.
The UK's Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson has warned that a flu pandemic may kill up to 50,000 people in the UK alone.
Between two and 50 million are expected to die globally if a pandemic occurs.
:: China has said it will close its borders if it discovers a single case of human-to-human transmission of bird flu.
Last Updated: 22:40 UK, Saturday October 22, 2005
Here is a VERY interesting news article to examine.
This is DNA vaccine by PowerMed (UK) vs. Cell Culture vaccine by NVAX (US) as to which will get to market faster in the coming year and the future.
I have highlighted the key phrases and sentences with bold colors.
Here's my take:
But there aren't enough of them [Tamiflu] to go around, and they may not work all that well, anyway. - Tamiflu is manufactured from the Star Anise plant from China. 90% of annual harvest goes to Roche to produce Tamiflu, anti-viral "treatment" drug that must be administered within 48 hours of infection to have maximum effectiveness. Recent studies are showing growing resistance by the H5N1 virus to Tamiflu, that's why the bold red phrase "may not work all that well."
So his company and others are working on speedier, more modern alternatives. One promising route is growing the virus in vats of cells.
and others, and promises to cut months off production times. - Novavax (NVAX) is one of "other" companies using cell culturing process to produce the vaccine in 2 months!
vaccines constructed from DNA. Trials, set for next year, are needed to prove that such vaccines can actually protect people from flu. - DNA based vaccine trials, being worked by PowerMed, is not set until NEXT YEAR. Novavax is hinting their cell-culture vaccine based on the European strain of H5N1 ready around early 2006 (only several months from now). What would happen if Novavax markets the cell-culture vaccine while PowerMed is still running the DNA vaccine trials (which has no gurantee that it will work at all)? Even DNA based vaccine turns out to be effective, whoever goes to market FIRST will get the orders.
once the technology is proven, his company could make enough vaccine for all Americans in a kitchen-size factory in just six weeks. - Key phrase here is "once the technology is proven." Until then, Cell culture vaccine appears to have the lead in development and market delivery time frame. However, as the article says, if the DNA technology is proven and production cost/time is verified, I will be first in line to buy up the stocks of these companies. (with the money made from NVAX gains) ;)
U.S. Health & Human Services Department (HHS) has awarded $100 million to Sanofi to make a vaccine against avian flu using eggs and $97 million to develop cell-culture production facilities. HHS is about to hand out another award, but it has told PowderMed it has been dropped from consideration. Too unproven. - The problem with US and world governments right now is that they need a "definite" response to the Avian threat right now. For UK and European Union, the Avian virus is there already. For US, it is matter of time (days/weeks). They must support solutions that are ready for market. That's probably why DNA based vaccine was "dropped" from contract award considerations.
Cell-culture vaccines aren't proven, either, retorts Beadle - Yes they are not, that's why Novavax and others are working very hard to "prove" the effectiveness of the cell culture vaccine as we speak. Like I said earlier, time is the best judge and we'll know in time who can produce the effective vaccine first and take to market.
Here's the link and copy of article:
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_43/b3956057.htm
OCTOBER 24, 2005
NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY
New Vaccines For A Pandemic
Using DNA, vast amounts could be made quickly. But will the drugs work?
If Dr. John Beadle, chief medical officer at British biotech startup PowderMed Ltd., is right, the U.S. and the rest of the world are making a big mistake. Sometime in the coming years a deadly strain of influenza will strike. If the bird flu that has already killed more than 60 people in Asia and is spreading to Europe mutates into a something that can jump from person to person, the result could be a global pandemic: millions of people dead. Fearing the worst, public health authorities worldwide are vying to stockpile anti-viral drugs. But there aren't enough of them to go around, and they may not work all that well, anyway.
What's needed is the ability to quickly make vast amounts of a vaccine. That's why President George W. Bush met with CEOs of the six major vaccine makers on Oct. 7 to try to prod them into boosting their capacity. But health experts agree that more production alone isn't the answer. Today's 1950s-era manufacturing method requires growing flu viruses in millions of chicken eggs, and it takes nine months or more to make a batch. Says Beadle: "The pandemic will have come and gone before we have the vaccine. That is what shocks me."
So his company and others are working on speedier, more modern alternatives. One promising route is growing the virus in vats of cells. Chiron Corp. (CHIR ) is in late-stage trials with a vaccine made from such cell-grown viruses. The method is also being developed by leading flu-vaccine maker Sanofi Pasteur Inc. (SNY ) and others, and promises to cut months off production times.
"A MODEL FOR BIODEFENSE"
Beadle has a more radical solution -- vaccines constructed from DNA. Trials, set for next year, are needed to prove that such vaccines can actually protect people from flu. But if the approach works, it would be a major advance. "DNA has some real advantages for a pandemic vaccine," notes University of Rochester professor Dr. John Jay Treanor, who tests flu vaccines. "There is no need to handle live viruses, and there are no complicated purification steps." Instead, the vaccine is largely comprised of a few genes from the virus. Once in the body, the genes tell cells to make viral proteins, which stimulate an immune response.
Such a vaccine is "trivial" to manufacture, says Erik A. Henchal, former commander of the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases. Different genes could be swapped in, enabling rapid production not only of vaccines against new flu strains, but also against other threats. "I'm interested in encouraging this going to trial for flu because I see it as a model for biodefense," says Henchal. Beadle figures that once the technology is proven, his company could make enough vaccine for all Americans in a kitchen-size factory in just six weeks.
Given the promise of DNA vaccines, others, such as Chiron and Merck & Co. (MRK ), have tried to make them. Typically, however, experimental versions have failed to generate a sufficient immune response. PowderMed's data look far better, researchers say. One reason is the delivery method. Tiny gold particles are coated with vaccine and shot into the skin at supersonic speeds. "They know what they are doing," says Treanor.
It sounds simple, though major hurdles remain. The next step is proving DNA vaccines work against regular flu -- and that takes money. So far, the U.S. Health & Human Services Department (HHS) has awarded $100 million to Sanofi to make a vaccine against avian flu using eggs and $97 million to develop cell-culture production facilities. HHS is about to hand out another award, but it has told PowderMed it has been dropped from consideration. Too unproven.
Cell-culture vaccines aren't proven, either, retorts Beadle: "Even if there were only a 5% chance that DNA vaccines offer the answer, wouldn't you want to put significant resources behind it to find out?" Others agree -- and Congress is making noises about intervening. "We need to learn that we can't keep doing business as usual," says Dr. Gary J. Nabel, director of the Vaccine Research Center at the National Institutes of Health. "We should have been working on these new technologies, like DNA vaccines, 10 years ago." Maybe the threat of a global pandemic will correct that mistake.
Here is a VERY interesting news article to examine.
This is DNA vaccine by PowerMed (UK) vs. Cell Culture vaccine by NVAX (US) as to which will get to market faster in the coming year and the future.
I have highlighted the key phrases and sentences with bold colors.
Here's my take:
But there aren't enough of them [Tamiflu] to go around, and they may not work all that well, anyway. - Tamiflu is manufactured from the Star Anise plant from China. 90% of annual harvest goes to Roche to produce Tamiflu, anti-viral "treatment" drug that must be administered within 48 hours of infection to have maximum effectiveness. Recent studies are showing growing resistance by the H5N1 virus to Tamiflu, that's why the bold red phrase "may not work all that well."
So his company and others are working on speedier, more modern alternatives. One promising route is growing the virus in vats of cells.
and others, and promises to cut months off production times. - Novavax (NVAX) is one of "other" companies using cell culturing process to produce the vaccine in 2 months!
vaccines constructed from DNA. Trials, set for next year, are needed to prove that such vaccines can actually protect people from flu. - DNA based vaccine trials, being worked by PowerMed, is not set until NEXT YEAR. Novavax is hinting their cell-culture vaccine based on the European strain of H5N1 ready around early 2006 (only several months from now). What would happen if Novavax markets the cell-culture vaccine while PowerMed is still running the DNA vaccine trials (which has no gurantee that it will work at all)? Even DNA based vaccine turns out to be effective, whoever goes to market FIRST will get the orders.
once the technology is proven, his company could make enough vaccine for all Americans in a kitchen-size factory in just six weeks. - Key phrase here is "once the technology is proven." Until then, Cell culture vaccine appears to have the lead in development and market delivery time frame. However, as the article says, if the DNA technology is proven and production cost/time is verified, I will be first in line to buy up the stocks of these companies. (with the money made from NVAX gains) ;)
U.S. Health & Human Services Department (HHS) has awarded $100 million to Sanofi to make a vaccine against avian flu using eggs and $97 million to develop cell-culture production facilities. HHS is about to hand out another award, but it has told PowderMed it has been dropped from consideration. Too unproven. - The problem with US and world governments right now is that they need a "certain" response to the Avian threat right now. For UK and European Union, the Avian virus is there already. For US, it is matter of time (days/weeks). They must support solutions that are ready for market. That's probably why DNA based vaccine was "dropped" from contract award considerations.
Cell-culture vaccines aren't proven, either, retorts Beadle - Yes they are not, that's why Novavax and others are working very hard to "prove" the effectiveness of the cell culture vaccine as we speak. Like I said earlier, time is the best judge and we'll know in time who can produce the effective vaccine first and take to market.
Here's the link and copy of article:
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_43/b3956057.htm
OCTOBER 24, 2005
NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY
New Vaccines For A Pandemic
Using DNA, vast amounts could be made quickly. But will the drugs work?
If Dr. John Beadle, chief medical officer at British biotech startup PowderMed Ltd., is right, the U.S. and the rest of the world are making a big mistake. Sometime in the coming years a deadly strain of influenza will strike. If the bird flu that has already killed more than 60 people in Asia and is spreading to Europe mutates into a something that can jump from person to person, the result could be a global pandemic: millions of people dead. Fearing the worst, public health authorities worldwide are vying to stockpile anti-viral drugs. But there aren't enough of them to go around, and they may not work all that well, anyway.
What's needed is the ability to quickly make vast amounts of a vaccine. That's why President George W. Bush met with CEOs of the six major vaccine makers on Oct. 7 to try to prod them into boosting their capacity. But health experts agree that more production alone isn't the answer. Today's 1950s-era manufacturing method requires growing flu viruses in millions of chicken eggs, and it takes nine months or more to make a batch. Says Beadle: "The pandemic will have come and gone before we have the vaccine. That is what shocks me."
So his company and others are working on speedier, more modern alternatives. One promising route is growing the virus in vats of cells. Chiron Corp. (CHIR ) is in late-stage trials with a vaccine made from such cell-grown viruses. The method is also being developed by leading flu-vaccine maker Sanofi Pasteur Inc. (SNY ) and others, and promises to cut months off production times.
"A MODEL FOR BIODEFENSE"
Beadle has a more radical solution -- vaccines constructed from DNA. Trials, set for next year, are needed to prove that such vaccines can actually protect people from flu. But if the approach works, it would be a major advance. "DNA has some real advantages for a pandemic vaccine," notes University of Rochester professor Dr. John Jay Treanor, who tests flu vaccines. "There is no need to handle live viruses, and there are no complicated purification steps." Instead, the vaccine is largely comprised of a few genes from the virus. Once in the body, the genes tell cells to make viral proteins, which stimulate an immune response.
Such a vaccine is "trivial" to manufacture, says Erik A. Henchal, former commander of the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases. Different genes could be swapped in, enabling rapid production not only of vaccines against new flu strains, but also against other threats. "I'm interested in encouraging this going to trial for flu because I see it as a model for biodefense," says Henchal. Beadle figures that once the technology is proven, his company could make enough vaccine for all Americans in a kitchen-size factory in just six weeks.
Given the promise of DNA vaccines, others, such as Chiron and Merck & Co. (MRK ), have tried to make them. Typically, however, experimental versions have failed to generate a sufficient immune response. PowderMed's data look far better, researchers say. One reason is the delivery method. Tiny gold particles are coated with vaccine and shot into the skin at supersonic speeds. "They know what they are doing," says Treanor.
It sounds simple, though major hurdles remain. The next step is proving DNA vaccines work against regular flu -- and that takes money. So far, the U.S. Health & Human Services Department (HHS) has awarded $100 million to Sanofi to make a vaccine against avian flu using eggs and $97 million to develop cell-culture production facilities. HHS is about to hand out another award, but it has told PowderMed it has been dropped from consideration. Too unproven.
Cell-culture vaccines aren't proven, either, retorts Beadle: "Even if there were only a 5% chance that DNA vaccines offer the answer, wouldn't you want to put significant resources behind it to find out?" Others agree -- and Congress is making noises about intervening. "We need to learn that we can't keep doing business as usual," says Dr. Gary J. Nabel, director of the Vaccine Research Center at the National Institutes of Health. "We should have been working on these new technologies, like DNA vaccines, 10 years ago." Maybe the threat of a global pandemic will correct that mistake.
another very interesting article about PowderMed, Novavax and Protein Sciences:
http://www.coxwashington.com/reporters/content/reporters/stories/BC_FLU_CELLS04_COX.html
Pandemic Threat Spurs New Vaccine Science
By JEFF NESMITH
Cox News Service
Sunday, September 04, 2005
WASHINGTON — Nearly three decades after she was plucked from a plant leaf, a single female caterpillar may help save the world from a pandemic of "bird flu."
At least that's the hope of a small pharmaceutical manufacturer in Connecticut.
Cells extracted from the ovaries of the caterpillar and multiplied trillions of times over the years are being used to grow substances which the company, Protein Sciences Inc., claims will stimulate human immunity to the dreaded H5N1 influenza virus.
The company is one of several firms that are waiting for the government to decide which will receive contracts aimed at underwriting new technologies for immunizing people against influenza.
The companies' proposals are being reviewed by officials at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which has said it expects to award contracts next month.
Finding new ways to immunize large numbers of Americans quickly has taken on new urgency as the H5N1 flu strain continues to spread among chickens and other birds in much of Asia and eastern Russia.
Although 112 people are confirmed to have contracted the virus and 57 have died, health officials say the victims seem to have gotten the disease from contact with infected birds and not from other humans.
But if the virus develops the ability to spread from human to human, health officials fear it could grow into a pandemic reminiscent of the killer flu of 1918-1919.
In that event, HHS estimates, as many as 600 million doses of the vaccine in two separate waves of vaccinations would be needed to protect every American.
That's equal to the entire capacity of all the influenza vaccine makers in the world, health officials say, and is many times the capacity of U.S.-based manufacturers.
Moreover, the current method of making flu vaccine is cumbersome.
The flu virus is injected into fertile hen eggs, where it infects the embryos. After several months of growth, the virus is harvested, killed and purified. The dead virus will not cause flu in humans but stimulates immunity to the disease.
The manufacturing process ordinarily requires six months after health officials identify the virus strain they think will cause either a pandemic or an annual flu epidemic.
And if a pandemic develops because of the H5N1 virus, there is an additional delay. Since the germ is lethal to chickens, HHS estimates it may take from one to two months to adapt it to a form that won't kill the chick embryos outright but will still produce immunity in humans.
The proposal to subsidize new technologies is one of several efforts by HHS to get the U.S. vaccine industry moving into technologies that do not use eggs.
To qualify for one of the contracts, a company must show that it has plans to build a manufacturing plant in the United States and that it will seek a license from the Food and Drug Administration for a vaccine license.
It is not known how many companies are competing for the government contracts or when HHS expects to announce a decision. Agency officials did not respond last week to questions about the contract proposals.
Daniel Adams, president of Protein Sciences, says his company can rapidly produce vaccine for H5N1 flu if a pandemic develops.
"In fact, we've already done it," he said.
He said that in 1997, shortly after the H5N1 strain was first identified in Hong Kong, the company got a call from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, "saying that this bird flu was rolling around Hong Kong."
"They said they wanted at least 1,500 doses of vaccine to protect health workers and researchers, and in eight weeks we gave them 1,700 doses," he said.
The company's system employs a bit of genetic trickery against a virus that normally infects caterpillars, with devastating effect.
"It turns them into green goo," Adams said.
Protein Sciences says it has removed the gene for the protein that emulsifies caterpillars. When a new influenza strain is identified, Adams said, the company sticks the gene for an influenza protein called hemagglutinin into the caterpillar virus. Hemagglutinin is the "H" of H5N1 or any other strain of influenza.
In a stainless steel tank, the virus grows in cells that have been regenerated time and again since 1977, when they were originally removed from a female caterpillar.
Instead of making the substance that normally kills caterpillars, it produces huge quantities of hemagglutinin, which Adams says stimulates flu immunity in humans.
The company has completed several phases of human trials and has a meeting with Food and Drug Administration officials next month to discuss a new drug license for the vaccine.
Two 1,600-gallon fermentation tanks would produce enough vaccine to immunize everyone in the country, Adams said.
Another company, Novavax Inc., of Malvern, Pa., uses a similar system with caterpillar cells to create a biologically inactive "virus-like particle" that has both hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, the "N" part of H5N1, attached to it.
Novavax president Rahul Singhvi said he believes presenting both proteins to the human immune system will cause a more robust, faster immune response.
However, Novavax is not as far along in developing its flu vaccine and did not bid for one of the HHS contracts.
A British company, PowderMed Ltd., recently announced that it will soon begin human trials on a system that uses a "gene gun" to shoot the gene for hemagglutinin directly into the skin of people being immunized.
The cells, rather than chicken eggs or caterpillar cells, then produce the hemagglutinin to set the immune system in motion, said Dr. John Beadle, chief medical officer of PowderMed, a spin-off from Chiron Corp. Beadle said the company has bid on one of the HHS development contracts.
The "gene gun" that fires the DNA is a disposable, helium-filled device slightly larger than the customary vaccination needle, he said. It shoots the DNA into cells at about the speed of sound, he said.
To give the DNA enough momentum to penetrate skin cells, the company attaches it to a microscopic "nugget" of gold.
Such a small quantity is needed that PowderMed says it could vaccinate everyone in America twice with slightly more than a quart of vaccine, which it says it could produce by growing the DNA in bacteria in a few weeks.
clearcoated! Nice to have you onboard and thanks for the post!
Thanks for your "clarifications" and I made the necessary corrections on my previous post.
Yes, it is important to keep in mind which "past" news articles address the "bird vaccine" and which current and new articles address the "human vaccine"
Looks like Protein Sciences Inc. is another company I need to monitor. It is not a publicly traded company yet, so I'll look out for possible "buy out" or IPO activity:
Here's the company link:
http://www.proteinsciences.com/
It appears, it is now race against time for the vaccine companies to develop and market effective Avian vaccines for birds and humans. And as the virus mutates, the companies need to develop new vaccines to match the mutations!
As David Randolph (Founder of 3StocksOnFire) mentioned before, Novavax will be a winner regardless due to their strong "non-Avian developments" and being in the same Avian sector as other strong Avian plays. ;)
Novavax's recent Institutional/money manager/insider buying activity and volume records are mainly due to their exisitng Estrasorb (nano-particle technology transdermal estrogen therapy which already has FDA approval and clinical effectiveness) product line and in anticipation of 2 new products to be released within 2 weeks.
The $12.5 million partnership agreement further strengthens Novavax and a significant milestone of breaking through the 200 day Moving Average by 50 day MA coincided with an analyst upgrade. These are all great news for Novavax and will further increase the demand for the shares of NVAX in the days/weeks to come. I believe more analyst upgrades will follow in light of recent developments and perfomance of Novavax, certainly with the 2 new product line launch.
As the new CEO (since July 2005) mentioned in last Wednesday's conference call and the presentation at the 2005 Bio Investor Forum in San Francisco (transcript highlights and conference call links located in previous posts), the new management team is committed in steering Novavax in the right direction. Additional funding for Avian R&D division (cash from $12.5 million partnership? ;)) will expedite Novavax's ability to complete the development and marketing of effective Avian vaccines (bird and human). I learned this weekend how much more there is to Novavax and their history (past and current "specialized" contractor for NIH for developing "bird" Avian vaccine and officers/personnel who have been key US government agency (civil/military) officers who are now working for Novavax and coordinating the response to the Avian threat. ;) Thanks stock_driver for all of your "numerous informative" posts at Yahoo MB!
Novavax as a company is solid just for their product lines, patents, FDA approvals and pending developments; but when you add the Avian vaccine development, it just enhances the strength of this stock.
Next week certainly looks to be exciting for NVAX.
As a caution (as always) look for profit taking after Friday/week's gain. Approach to 52 week high of $4.10 will bring some nervousness for some holders, but my guess is that we'll break through the 52 week high rather easily.
Good trading!
It appears, it is now race against time for the vaccine companies to develop and market effective Avian vaccines for birds and humans. And as the virus mutates, the companies need to develop new vaccines to match the mutations!
As David Randolph (Founder of 3StocksOnFire) mentioned before, Novavax will be a winner regardless due to their strong "non-Avian developments" and being in the same Avian sector as other strong Avian plays. ;)
Novavax's recent Institutional/money manager/insider buying activity and volume records are mainly due to their exisitng Estrasorb (nano-particle technology transdermal estrogen therapy which already has FDA approval and clinical effectiveness) product line and in anticipation of 2 new products to be released within 2 weeks.
The $12.5 million partnership agreement further strengthens Novavax and a significant milestone of breaking through the 200 day Moving Average by 50 day MA coincided with an analyst upgrade. These are all great news for Novavax and will further increase the demand for the shares of NVAX in the days/weeks to come. I believe more analyst upgrades will follow in light of recent developments and perfomance of Novavax, certainly with the 2 new product line launch.
As the new CEO (since July 2005) mentioned in last Wednesday's conference call and the presentation at the 2005 Bio Investor Forum in San Francisco (transcript highlights and conference call links located in previous posts), the new management team is committed in steering Novavax in the right direction. Additional funding for Avian R&D division (cash from $12.5 million partnership? ;)) will expedite Novavax's ability to complete the development and marketing of effective Avian vaccines (bird and human). I learned this weekend how much more there is to Novavax and their history (past and current "specialized" contractor for NIH for developing "bird" Avian vaccine and officers/personnel who have been key US government agency (civil/military) officers who are now working for Novavax and coordinating the response to the Avian threat. ;) Thanks stock_driver for all of your "numerous informative" posts at Yahoo MB!
Novavax as a company is solid just for their product lines, patents, FDA approvals and pending developments; but when you add the Avian vaccine development, it just enhances the strength of this stock.
Next week certainly looks to be exciting for NVAX.
As a caution (as always) look for profit taking after Friday/week's gain. Approach to 52 week high of $4.10 will bring some nervousness for some holders, but my guess is that we'll break through the 52 week high rather easily.
Good trading!
Another Novavax Conference Call scheduled for November 7th! :D
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=71178&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=1147087
Novavax at Rodman & Renshaw Techvest 7th Annual Healthcare Conference
Monday, November 7, 2005 1:00 p.m. ET
Another Novavax Conference Call scheduled for November 7th!
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=71178&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=1147087
Novavax at Rodman & Renshaw Techvest 7th Annual Healthcare Conference
Monday, November 7, 2005 1:00 p.m. ET
Great Britain's parrot case confirmed to be Avian H5N1 virus!
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-10-23-britainbirdflu_x.htm
Great Britain's parrot case confirmed to be Avian H5N1 virus!
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-10-23-britainbirdflu_x.htm
Posted 10/23/2005 3:14 PM
Updated 10/23/2005 4:12 PM
Great Britain uncovers case of deadly bird flu in parrot
LONDON (AP) — The British government said Sunday that a strain of bird flu that killed a parrot in quarantine is the deadly H5N1 strain that has plagued Asia and recently spread to Europe and Turkey.
Scientists determined that the parrot, imported from South America, died of the strain of avian flu that has devastated poultry stocks and killed 61 people in Asia the past two years, according to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
The virus is spread by migrating wild birds and has recently been found in birds in Russia, Turkey and Romania, spurring efforts around the globe to contain its spread.
While H5N1 is easily transmitted between birds, it is hard for humans to contract. But experts fear it could mutate into a form of flu that is easily transmitted between humans and cause a pandemic that could kill millions.
Debby Reynolds, DEFRA's chief veterinarian, said the parrot was likely infected with the virus while it was housed in the country's quarantine system with birds from Taiwan. Tests conducted on the Taiwanese birds that had died were inconclusive, according to the department.
DEFRA said the virus was most closely matched to a strain found in ducks in China earlier this year but was not very similar to strains discovered in Romania and Turkey. The genetic makeup of the virus changes slightly as it spreads, and scientists use such tests to track its migration across the world.
It was Britain's first confirmed case of bird flu since 1992.
Elsewhere, the Croatian government on Sunday promised to compensate villagers and farmers whose birds were slaughtered to prevent the spread of bird flu. About 10,000 domestic birds have been killed in an area near a national park where six swans were found to have been infected with the virus.
Damage from the culling was estimated at about $160,000. However, international bans on Croatian poultry exports could hurt farmers more. The European Commission on Friday said it was preparing a ban on all poultry imports from the country, while some individual European nations have already done so.
Medical experts detected the H5 virus in the swans Friday. Samples from the contaminated birds were then sent to a laboratory in Britain to establish whether they had the deadly H5N1 strain. Tests were also being done on samples from five other swans found dead Saturday morning near the park.
In related developments Sunday:
• Sweden said four ducks found dead in an area west of Stockholm Friday were infected with bird flu, but not the deadly H5N1 strain.
• Montenegro began testing its poultry for bird flu as a precaution after the disease was confirmed in neighboring Croatia. Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina also ordered cars to be disinfected at the Croatian border, and banned poultry imports from the country.
• The European Union said its bird flu experts will discuss a possible ban on imports of wild birds into the 25-nation bloc on Tuesday. The EU has so far resisted calls to ban all pet bird imports, fearing it could create a black market that could increase the threat of infected birds being smuggled in.
• Jordan and Israel agreed to limited cooperation to combat the possible spread of bird flu by monitoring people traveling across their shared border, the official Petra news agency reported. Neither country has had any cases of the virus.
• North Korea has launched a nationwide campaign to prevent a fresh outbreak of bird flu, strengthening quarantine and reporting systems and enhancing education of poultry farmers, a media report said. Earlier this year, North Korea culled about 210,000 chickens and other poultry after acknowledging its first bird flu outbreak in March. No new cases have since been reported.
More media coverage of the UK confirmed parrot Avian H5N1 case:
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1242357
Source of origin of the UK parrot from South America!
Now comes the media coverage of the UK confirmed parrot Avian H5N1 case:
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1242357
Source of origin of the UK parrot from South America!
What will this do to Roche?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4366514.stm
Last Updated: Saturday, 22 October 2005, 12:05 GMT 13:05 UK
Taiwan to ignore flu drug patent
Copy of Tamiflu produced in Taiwan
Taiwan says its copy of Tamiflu is cheaper and quicker to produce
Taiwan has responded to bird flu fears by starting work on its own version of the anti-viral drug, Tamiflu, without waiting for the manufacturer's consent.
More on link.
What will this do to Roche?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4366514.stm
Last Updated: Saturday, 22 October 2005, 12:05 GMT 13:05 UK
Taiwan to ignore flu drug patent
Copy of Tamiflu produced in Taiwan
Taiwan says its copy of Tamiflu is cheaper and quicker to produce
Taiwan has responded to bird flu fears by starting work on its own version of the anti-viral drug, Tamiflu, without waiting for the manufacturer's consent.
Taiwan officials said they had applied for the right to copy the drug - but the priority was to protect the public.
Tamiflu, made by Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche, cannot cure bird-flu but is widely seen as the best anti-viral drug to fight it, correspondents say.
Bird flu has killed at least 60 people in Asia since December 2003.
Scientists fear the lethal H5N1 strain of the virus could combine with human flu or mutate into a form that is easily transmissible between humans, triggering a flu pandemic.
Several countries have asked Roche for the right to make generic copies of Tamiflu.
'Cheaper, faster production'
Taiwan will produce six kg of its version of Tamiflu - enough, according to the government, to renew its stocks.
The government has said it will not market the drug commercially.
Q&A: Avian flu
Production of the drug on a small scale has already started.
A top health official said Taiwan had demonstrated its goodwill to Roche in talks - and the country hoped it would eventually secure permission to copy the drug.
"We have tried our best to negotiate with Roche," Su Ih-jen told Reuters news agency.
"It means we have shown our goodwill to Roche and we appreciate their patent. But to protect our people is the utmost important thing," he said.
A generic version of the drug produced by the island's National Health Institute is said to be 99% akin to the Tamiflu produced by Roche.
Officials say they can make their version of the drug more quickly - and at a lower cost - than Roche does.
Although Taiwan has not had a serious outbreak, the virus has killed thousands of poultry - and scores of people who came into contact with the birds - in nearby countries.
It has also now spread to Europe, with the latest possible case reported in an imported parrot in the UK.
Fresh bird flu outbreak in China
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4356392.stm
Last Updated: Wednesday, 19 October 2005, 11:13 GMT 12:13 UK
China has announced a fresh outbreak of bird flu, saying 2,600 birds have died from the disease in Inner Mongolia.
Fresh bird flu outbreak in China
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4356392.stm
Last Updated: Wednesday, 19 October 2005, 11:13 GMT 12:13 UK
China has announced a fresh outbreak of bird flu, saying 2,600 birds have died from the disease in Inner Mongolia.
The deaths, at a farm near the region's capital of Hohhot, were due to the H5N1 strain, which is potentially lethal to humans, the Xinhua news agency said.
China has previously suffered outbreaks of bird flu in Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet, all this year. Thousands of affected fowl have been slaughtered.
Bird flu has killed at least 60 people in Asia since December 2003.
Xinhua said the latest outbreak, in Tengjiaying village near Hohhot, was now under control, though it did not say when it had taken place.
H5N1 BIRD FLU VIRUS
Principally an avian disease, first seen in humans in Hong Kong, 1997
Almost all human cases thought to be contracted from birds
Isolated cases of human-to-human transmission in Hong Kong and Vietnam, but none confirmed
Q&A: Avian flu
China's national bird flu laboratory confirmed it was the H5N1 strain, Xinhua said.
No human victims were mentioned in the report - China's bird flu outbreaks have so far only affected its fowl.
Its most recent previous confirmed case was near the Tibetan capital of Lhasa in August, in which 133 birds died and another 2,475 were slaughtered.
A local official told the AFP news agency that the latest outbreak had been detected at a small farm with fewer than 10,000 birds, mainly chickens, geese and peacocks.
News of the outbreak comes as European officials deal with outbreaks in Romania and Turkey.
The UN's Food and Agriculture Agency has also warned of a risk the disease will now reach the Middle East and Africa as a result of the European outbreaks.
Scientists fear the H5N1 strain could combine with human flu or mutate into a form that it easily transmissible between humans, triggering a flu pandemic.
Hello LiveLife, NVAX needs to at least double from here to compensate for your work :)
You're on top of Bird Flu info, thanks for sharing !
I don't know if this is media's hysteria or not, but it makes me concerned. I sure hope nothing happens and the disease is contained among birds.
NVAX still is a small cap so the potential for speculation is huge. Unlike big pharma stocks, where revenues from a bird flu vaccine may be not so relevant, with NVAX it would have a big impact in revenues and profits. That's why I believe the only way to play this is through small caps.
Technically, as LiveLife says, volume has been many times above average and price is enjoying a powerful bullish trend. Thinking of an upside target, and since we're speculating here and there are no limits to speculation, what about that gap left open, at $10.56?
(you can see it on the chart below)
I can set up an easy way of not losing money trading NVAX, protecting my profits as they grow and try selling at a logic high if a parabolic rise occurs (my ascending trendline method loses a big part of the profit in the event of a parabolic rise).
So, my trading plan for NVAX is:
1) Sell at $10.56, when a gap on the long term chart will finally be closed.
2) Sell if the stock closes below TL2, which for tomorrow will be standing at $2.66, rising $0.07 per trading day.
David Randolph raised his target of NVAX to $10.56!!! :DQuote from: David Randolph on October 23, 2005, 07:54:59 PM
Hello LiveLife, NVAX needs to at least double from here to compensate for your work :)
You're on top of Bird Flu info, thanks for sharing !
Technically, as LiveLife says, volume has been many times above average and price is enjoying a powerful bullish trend.
David's full technical analysis and charts can be located in the premium NVAX board.
Thanks David! = applaud =
What a surprise on the target of $10.56! WOW!
NVAX, here we go! But do watch for profit taking on Monday's open.
Thanks mnecklstring for this link!
Newsweek is one of the widest circulated magazine with tremendous "public" exposure.
Newsweek with this cover will hit the news stands, magazine stores, schools, universities, libraries, doctor's offices, hospitals, clinics, government offices, lobbysts' offices, and other public places everywhere.
It will also hit the offices of New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, American Exchange, world's stock market offices, and every brokerage houses and investment offices in US. Will this have an impact on the Avian related sectors? How will they respond and advise their clients? Time will tell.
Once this edition is released, pressure on US and world's governments will greatly increase, urging even more to be done to "respond and prepare" for the
Avian "human" threat.
This is the article that will follow the Newsweek cover:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9787690/site/newsweek/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9787690/site/newsweek/
Newsweek is one of the widest circulated magazine with tremendous "public" exposure.
Newsweek with this cover will hit the news stands, magazine stores, schools, universities, libraries, doctor's offices, hospitals, clinics, government offices, lobbysts' offices, and other public places everywhere.
It will also hit the offices of New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, American Exchange, world's stock market offices, and every brokerage houses and investment offices in US. Will this have an impact on the Avian related sectors? How will they respond and advise their clients? Time will tell.
Once this edition is released, pressure on US and world's governments will greatly increase, urging even more to be done to "respond and prepare" for the Avian "human" threat.
Looks like SVA is a buy
@ Livelife:
Why do you copy/paste David's post from the premium service MB to the stock picking MB??
If everyone starts doing that, it will be useless to be a premium member because all the information will be available for free!! ???
+ on the Yahoo Finance MB of HEB you do the same, but you post a link to the NVAX thread. ???
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076897&tid=heb&sid=7076897&mid=54198
LiveLife....I think it would be nice if you just post your otherwise very fine comments in just one of the NVAX-threads.
Also: copy/pasting David's comments on the stock is not really a good idea - If David wants he's analysis to be posted in this thread, I'm sure he'll do it himself.
So: I applaud you ;) for your hard work and good posts, and I smite you >:( for mixing the members board's posts with the public board.
cumulina, thanks for the comments! = applaud = And apologies <BOW>
I have modified my post by deleting David's premium contents (technical analysis and charts) and left only the mention of my info. ;) Let me know if this is satisfactory.
Yes, I will concentrate my NVAX posts here. To be honest, it's been a lot of work to "double post" in two boards. The premium members can view my posts here.
Thanks for the suggestion!
Good trading!
Quote from: Se7en on October 24, 2005, 02:24:14 AM
@ Livelife:
Why do you copy/paste David's post from the premium service MB to the stock picking MB??
If everyone starts doing that, it will be useless to be a premium member because all the information will be available for free!! ???
+ on the Yahoo Finance MB of HEB you do the same, but you post a link to the NVAX thread. ???
I fully agree with Se7en on this one. We pay 49.99/month to read about david's expert analysis on his stock picks. We don't pay so we can go to the yahoo board and click a link to see davids analysis for free. I would suggest you discontinued posting David's analysis elsewhere before you upset alot of people.
But hey, everyone makes mistakes. We're all human, so no hard feelings. All in all i appreciate your dedication to NVAX and bird flu analysis. But let me make a suggestion from the Theory of Kantian ethics:
When your about to make a decision, ask yourself, would the result of this decision be morally accepted by the general population in which im associated with(3sof Honorous members)? If you believe the answer is yes, go right on ahead and make that decision. If the answer is no, then i would refrain from making that decision because you will likely see bad results.
Basically to sum up the code of Kantian ethics. Base your decisions on what the end result would be if everyone were to make that same decision. Whether it be good or bad. In this case as Se7en pointed out, David's purpose of offering the premium service would thus be useless, because if everyone were to post David's analysis elsewhere we could just go to the stock picking forum or to the Yahoo MB to see David's analysis for free. When you post Davids analysis or any of ours that we make on the honorous members boards for that matter. You are disregarding the reason why the premium serverice exists, to be read and responded to only by members who are part of the premium service. Therefore, making it an unethical decision based on the Kantian theory.
regards,
fousc
-fousc
Se7en and fousc, thanks for the comments. = applaud =
I have realized the "error" of my ways. Apologies! <BOW>
I have already deleted David's technical analysis and charts from the public board and left the following. If it is not satisfactory, please let me know.
I have already sent David and Frederick an email of my "bad" behavior. Also, cumulina made a good suggestion of concentrating my posts to the public board. The premium members can view my posts there.
Quote from: LiveLife on October 23, 2005, 08:55:11 PM
David has raised his sell target of NVAX to $10.56. Following is an exerpt of his post from the premium board.
Quote from: David Randolph on October 23, 2005, 07:54:59 PM
Hello LiveLife, NVAX needs to at least double from here to compensate for your work :)
You're on top of Bird Flu info, thanks for sharing !
Technically, as LiveLife says, volume has been many times above average and price is enjoying a powerful bullish trend.
David's full technical analysis and charts can be located in the premium NVAX board.
Quote from: Se7en on October 24, 2005, 02:24:14 AM
+ on the Yahoo Finance MB of HEB you do the same, but you post a link to the NVAX thread.
This weekend, I was posting essentially only in Yahoo NVAX MB, but kept receiving barrage of "rude and inappropriate" posts from the HEB MB regarding NVAX vs. HEB etc. etc.
Yes, I did post David's analysis and target on HEB MB to "finalize" what had gone on during the weekend. I'll take your point into consideration in the future. Apologies! <BOW> :'(
Quote from: fousc on October 24, 2005, 03:48:55 AM
Theory of Kantian ethics:
When your about to make a decision, ask yourself, would the result of this decision be morally accepted by the general population in which im associated with(3sof Honorous members)? If you believe the answer is yes, go right on ahead and make that decision. If the answer is no, then i would refrain from making that decision because you will likely see bad results.
Basically to sum up the code of Kantian ethics. Base your decisions on what the end result would be if everyone were to make that same decision. Whether it be good or bad. In this case as Se7en pointed out, David's purpose of offering the premium service would thus be useless, because if everyone were to post David's analysis elsewhere we could just go to the stock picking forum or to the Yahoo MB to see David's analysis for free. When you post Davids analysis or any of ours that we make on the honorous members boards for that matter. You are disregarding the reason why the premium serverice exists, to be read and responded to only by members who are part of the premium service. Therefore, making it an unethical decision based on the Kantian theory.
regards,
fousc
-fousc
Thanks fousc for the comments! As a newbie to 3StocksOnFire (joined in July of this year), I will take the Kantian theory to heart. My apologies to all who I have offended <BOW> :'(
I already deleted David's technical analysis and charts from the public board.
Good trading!
No apologies needed, LiveLife.
I'm looking foreward to see more of your fine posts on NVAX.
Applause for that. ;)
Thank you!
Most of the European Indexes are in the green. We may have a "bullish day" today!
Should be exciting for NVAX at open. Watch for profit taking!
Take care.
Good trading!
I don't mind if he posts on Yahoo. I am a member of 3stocksonfire. The way that I found it is because someone posted on the messageboards of Yahoo. Otherwise, think I may never have ran across this site.....
This may be bad but it wouldn't hurt me if the stock happens to go up because of his informative posts. Am I the only one who feels this way?
hi,
based on the pre market , looks like a morning sell off. !
maxi ::)
Quote from: brandyjoco on October 24, 2005, 09:17:24 AM
I don't mind if he posts on Yahoo. I am a member of 3stocksonfire. The way that I found it is because someone posted on the messageboards of Yahoo. Otherwise, think I may never have ran across this site.....
This may be bad but it wouldn't hurt me if the stock happens to go up because of his informative posts. Am I the only one who feels this way?
The same history happened with me: I found link to 3stocksonfire in Yahoo messageboard. I think, Yahoo MB is a best advertising place for site ;)
Sure, I don't appreciate to see excellent David (or other members) analysis in a free of charge boards, but links... how knows...
I like this site, but to continue their work 3SoF staff needs money, so if some new subscribers appear, it will be better for David and Co. ... and for me ;)
Good trades,
Gregory
Since the premium service started up, I have been trying to figure out where I stand on this situation - it is obvious that the "value added" on stocks in the 3SOF portfolio is definitely not restricted to David and Frederick's input - there are many people here who contribute a huge amount to the ongoing analysis of different stocks. However, theere are 2 things that I think are potentially problematic here:
1. With threads ongoing in the premium service board and in stock picking or elsewhere, it often gets confusing and somewhat tedious to search and read multiple threads - quite a few stocks have 2, 3 or more threads ongoing!!
2. As premium members, most of us have gladly donated to 3SOF, based on David and Frederick's picks and analysis, and profits realised from these. My feeling is that as members contributing to their analysis, we should focus our posts in the ongoing posts in the premium boards, not only as these are the most current threads, but in a sense to maintain the "added value" on the picks that they make. If most of the analysis by members is also available on non-premium boards, it provides little incentive to non-paying members and guests to subscribe - they can see what picks 3SOF has made and follow much of the discussion elsewhere. In fact, although I know that this is a very open community, I am surprised that David and Frederick have not decided to "ring fence" their picks in any way, restricting non-premium threads. Although I'm not sure if this is the right thing to do. ???
I am sure that they are thinking these things through also as they refine their business model, but I would rather support them by posting in member's sections than in non-member's sections when possible. Also, I am not entirely sure whether I like the idea of guests being able to access the non-premium content, effectively leaving all of our analysis available to anyone. This is a community, and a community is defined by the contributions of all of its members - leechers do not provide any value to anyone.
Finally, as to the ubiquitous Yahoo MBs -- I too came to 3SOF from a post on a yahoo MB, and was so excited when I started looking around, as it was just what I'd been trying to find. This is a good thing, however, they are heavily trafficked and fickle places, and I really don't want a lot of the kinds of people who post there to start posting here - every time I see some reference to 3SOF on a Yahoo MB, I get a bit annoyed. As David has said in previous posts, the whole point of our work here is to get an edge on the rest of the market, to be ahead of the curve. If everyone has access to the research we have worked hard to produce, we lose that edge, and become part of the herd. To maintain the success here, I think we need to be a bit more protective of what we have, and perhaps David and Frederick need to think about ways to implement this within the site (e.g. severely restricting guest acess to the front page, say).
Anyway, just my thoughts on a cloudy Monday morning,
Happy trading,
the Scotsman ;)
The volume on this thing is astounding. Total shares just over 43,000,000. No resistance and looking good!
LiveLife, I very much appreciate all the informative posts on NVAX and hope you don't choose to concentrate your posts mainly on Yahoo MB. I have a hard enough time trying to keep up with the posts on 3SOF I want to read and sure wouldn't want to have to try and sift through all the "rude and inappropriate" junk out there on Yahoo. So, whatever additional sites you choose to post on, I hope you won't stop posting here.
Also, with regard to access to premium content, most paid sites offer a 2 or 3 week free trial that gives a person full access to the service. At the end of that time, it's take it or leave it. Maybe that is being offered here. I couldn't tell from the home page.
I, too, hope some of the threads can be combined because I end up checking them all to make sure I don't miss anything on the stocks I own and there is a lot of overlap. I also think with so many more members and more posts the response time on the whole site appears to be slower. I'm not very computer savvy but I wonder if some older threads could be archived in some way that might make a difference in response time.
Thanks.
Theresa
lifelife almost puts the same phrases, text on the open posts(nvax) like in here...about the stocks that are in the current portfolio of 3sof premium members we should keep the information in here (posting only in here about stocks that are in the portfolio like nvax) ...and premium member should not leak information out of here...it doesn t make any sence. ;).
another opinion is that i would hide the open trades. Just showing the closed trades and the overall performance to the public. People get the picks for free (some people would get member just to get the picks)....(just my meaning, take it easy)
Happy Trading. ;)
besides the critic i also have to say lifelife did a lot of work in here...applaud :)
Another nice day for NVAX! $0.42 gain with 25 million shares in volume!
After early profit taking on open, nice steady climb to a new 52 week high of $4.15! For swing traders, would have been nice to sell at $4.30+ to buy back at $4+. ;)
If you are long, I would hold until the Institutional/money managers starts selling. ;)
According to David, you hold until the 10 MA begins to drop towards the 50 MA. Looking at the chart, there no sign of that for now. 50 MA broke through the 200 MA and this is a very significant signal. The 200 MA is still on a downward slope. Once it flattens and turns positive, a true positive signal! If this trend continues, we should see more analyst upgrades.
David increased the target to $10.56 yesterday, and NVAX looks to be headed that way.
Another day of Institutional/money manager accumulation with NO SELLING!
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NVAX&range=7&mgp=0&x=12&y=7&i=3&hdate=
NVAX continues to be the week and month volume leader with still the highest Institutional gain activity for the month!
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=One-Week+High-Volume+Gainers&btnQryFrm=Go
Livelife - I miss your informative posts!
Does anyone have TA information on NVAX? I'm a dummy when it comes to reading charts....
Thanks ljtoomey2 for the chart!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=nvax,P
I am quite exhausted from this weekend! (sleep deprivation from all the NVAX postings on 3StocksOnFire and Yahoo MB - several hundred posts!) :D I may resume my "double" posting in the future.
In the meantime, here's the link to public NVAX board:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.105#msg27846
Thanks mnecklstring for the post!
Novavax to Present at the C.E. Unterberg, Towbin Life Sciences Conference
Monday , October 24, 2005 17:04 ET
MALVERN, Pa., Oct 24, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) a specialty biopharmaceutical company, today announced that Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, will be presenting at the C.E. Unterberg, Towbin Life Sciences Conference on Wednesday, October 26, 2005.
WHEN: Wednesday, October 26, 2005 11:00 a.m. EDT
WHERE: The Palace Hotel, 455 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10022
HOW: The live broadcast of the presentation can be accessed through
our website at http://www.novavax.com. After the presentation date, the
web cast will be archived on our website for 90 days.
Dr. Rahul Singhvi, CEO
Congress Gets Serious About A Pandemic Thanks again mnecklstring for the link! :D
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=66&ncid=66&e=4&u=/bw/20051024/bs_bw/c3957079
By John Carey Mon Oct 24, 8:13 AM ET
What's scarier in Washington, the prospect of a flu virus that could kill millions or the possibility that voters will toss out any politician who fails to prepare the nation for such a disaster? A pandemic could be a true global catastrophe, of course. But along the Potomac the second threat is also very real. That's a big reason why both the White House and Congress are rushing to boost America's capacity to produce vaccines and drugs against flu and other diseases. More...
Another nice day on this one. "Get Some" ;)
And I did buy at the open like I said I was going to ! ;D
Also up in the after hours.
Support @ $3.56...2.45...2.04...1.81
MACD is bullish
Stochastic is bullish
Also the Golden Cross has taken place............
The 50-day EMA crossing over the 200-dayEMA
When a shorter moving average like the 50-day crosses above a longer one like the 200-day it is a major buy signal. In Japan this signal is called a "Golden Cross." The reverse is called a "Dead Cross" and it is a sell signal. Using moving average crossovers takes the subjective part of chart reading, as this is just pure math in determining the trend. When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day it's a signal to go long.
Thanks... I get lost around this board...
setravis, thanks for the post and charts! hulajoy200, thanks for the link!
OTTAWA, Canada (AP) -- World health ministers meeting in Canada to discuss strategies to fight the spread of bird flu emphasized that preventing the disease from mutating into a deadly human virus was as important as developing new vaccines against it.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/24/birdflu.canada.summit.ap/index.html
October 24, 2005 09:30 PM Pacific Time
Bloomberg just covered the new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke replacing Alan Greenspan is spurring "bullish" market gains in Asian Stock Markets!
He comes onboard with excellent credentials and analysts' are confident that he is capable of maintaining the inflation and controlling the US economy.
He is expected to stop Greenspan's interest rate hikes and start lowering interest rates!!! Analysts predict positive response by US and world stock markets in a "bullish" rally!!!
Expect some more excitement tomorrow!
Good trading!
I sold my NVAX holding in the resistance zone above $4.20, 50% plus gain in 1 week needs to be banked. Weekly chart shows clearly how today NVAX has stopped at the 200ema and put an intraday spike up towards the 200sma. That type of action shows why I track both the 200sma and 200ema. I'll buy NVAX back if it can clear this resistance on continued volume as all indicators are still in buy mode.
Quote from: brandyjoco on October 24, 2005, 07:13:53 PM
Does anyone have TA information on NVAX? I'm a dummy when it comes to reading charts....
Heres a technical breakdown of NVAX brandyjoco :D .
Todays price action made a nice rally on heavy volume to close at 4.15 and as you can see from the chart there was a strong area of support and resistence in the 4.10 area last year. Though we had a close above that area today, i think we will likely see some profit taking tomorrow due to such a sharp advance over the last two trading sessions making this a false break out of resistence and the 4.10- 4.15 area is gonna be a key resistence area to break for this rally to continue technically.
Once this area is surpassed(well, if it is surpassed, which i think it will) the next area of resistence will likely be the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern that formed in 03-04 which stands at exactly 5.00.
price action is also slipping away from the current ascending trendline so a healthy retracement will possibly occur sometime in the near future hopefully just to retest the trendline. The 200 day EMA had an upside cross from the 50 day EMA which is a fairly reliable signal that prices are to head upwards, more so for long term rather than short.
Hope this was of any help brandyjoco or anyone else.
-fousc
I have been waiting for the pullback also thinking that the stock is moving to fast and far away from the trendline.( like SVA corrected) However, the volume is just crazy and watching the buyer/sellers on level 2 is showing me that the buyers are definetely outnumbering the sellers. Does anyone think that if the volume stays at current levels or even increases in the short term it could continue to delay this retracement. I would appreciate some TA advice. I am still fairly new in properly deciphering direction of a stock by its chart and volume correlation. Thanks...
European indexes are mixed with FTSE and DAX both down.
European markets open just before US markets, and often indicates US market action.
I am reading news posts that are saying new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's bullish "affect" is fading fast. Well, then be very careful today! Watch out for the bearish market trend to return.
After Friday and Monday's large gains, there will certainly be profit taking! However, many retail investors/traders (that's us) probably sold as NVAX climbed $4+, $4.20 - $4.30+ and will be looking to buy back on dip today. Daytraders will be looking for this profit taking sell off to buy and sell later intraday. For swing traders (like me ;)) who may have sold at $4+ will also be looking for buy back after the profit taking sell off. Once the profit taking is done, anticipate the buyers who missed out on Monday's gain to jump in, even at market buy! There is still very strong "BUY" interest in NVAX and those that are just finding about NVAX wil be buying NVAX at any price in fear of "spiking gains in price to $5+"
I did not sell yesterday at $4+, which was my current sell target because of the large volume gain activity. I wasn't sure if there would be an afternoon spike in gain (remember, I work full time during the day and have to do limit sell, unless my wife intervenes and pushes the "sell" button intraday). ;)
I anticipate Institutional/money managers will continue to accumulate today also. There may be some sell request/execution activities by the managers as we gain past $4 for funds that are managed by automated software programs. Those that bought at sub-$2 have realized 100+% gains and that will trigger some automated sell.
For longs, I recommend that you stick with the rest of the Institutional/money managers who bought at $2.50 - $3.50 to realize "several dollars - $10+" gains. When they sell, you should sell also.
Don't forget CEO Dr. Rahul Singhvi will be presenting at the C.E. Unterberg, Towbin Life Sciences Conference tomorrow in New York at 11:00 am EDT with a live webcast. http://www.novavax.com. Should be some more exciting updates and news!
Should be an interesting and maybe another exciting day for NVAX.
Good trading!
Quote from: AussieTrader on October 25, 2005, 12:47:17 AM
I sold my NVAX holding in the resistance zone above $4.20, 50% plus gain in 1 week needs to be banked. Weekly chart shows clearly how today NVAX has stopped at the 200ema and put an intraday spike up towards the 200sma. That type of action shows why I track both the 200sma and 200ema. I'll buy NVAX back if it can clear this resistance on continued volume as all indicators are still in buy mode.
hi aussie trader,
can you explain how you got the 200 ema . i have looked at various chart pages and the 200ema sits much lower. here is stock charts page i am confused ??? :-\
Here's "my take" link to public NVAX board for this morning. Good trading!
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.120
Quote from: rickjust on October 25, 2005, 08:46:48 AM
hi aussie trader,
can you explain how you got the 200 ema . i have looked at various chart pages and the 200ema sits much lower. here is stock charts page i am confused ??? :-\
Hey Rickjust,
the reason why Aussie's chart is different than yours is because his periodicy for the chart is weekly, not daily. Here is an example of a weekly chart with the price action near the 200 EMA.
-fousc
Thanks for the input traders. The TA is very helpful.
The volume is crazy. What explains that? Daytraders?
Wish I was not on vacation when VICL made that spike :-X
Okay-- TA people. I'm a newbie.
So a question for you: what does TA tell us to do / look for given this afternoon's runup?
(we all knew it was a great stock, but wow)
Man, look at NVAX it just hit $5.88... in six days 2.93 to 5.88 100% .... :D ;) :o
NVAX was just mentioned on CNBC....as taking 1/10 the time to make the vaccine as any other company.
Hey, I'm not great at this trading stuff ... what do I do - hold on or sell?
I'm getting dizzy :o
So if you sold, would you buy now at these lofty heights on this volume or hope for a pull back to the trendline.
Still learning, Mike
I'm long on NVAX. The stock is just ridiculously bullish, but after today's 30%+ run-up today, th chart looks pretty parabolic and I'm tempted to sell a bit and buy back after a small correction. What do ya'll think?
Quote from: brandyjoco on October 25, 2005, 03:35:34 PM
Hey, I'm not great at this trading stuff ... what do I do - hold on or sell?
Well, David's target on this one is above $10, so if you are following his trading plan you should hold it ;)
Quote from: durjoy on October 25, 2005, 02:29:10 PM
Okay-- TA people. I'm a newbie.
So a question for you: what does TA tell us to do / look for given this afternoon's runup?
(we all knew it was a great stock, but wow)
I see no technical signal to sell NVAX yet... But that depends on your time frame.
I just see this stock gaining momentum over increasing (huge) volume...
regards,
shorts % up again:
Tuesday , October 25, 2005 16:22 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Novavax, Inc. (NasdaqNM: NVAX) INCREASED 132.8% to 2,485,929 shares for the month ended mid-October, 2005.
SYMBOL SEPTEMBER OCTOBER CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
NVAX 1,067,918 2,485,929 +1,418,011 +132.78% 1
Based on NVAX's 20-day average daily share volume of 9,408,880, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
WOW! what a day to be holding NVAX, i dont think any of us saw this coming. Price action broke through all my anticipated resistence barriers. Ill continue to hold NVAX, though i feel a strong retracement is coming, I feel the bird flu is just in its initial workings of spreading accross the world, sadly only more bad news is to come in the future which will benefit our stock prices. I'm following Daves plan on this one to hold as long as it closes above the ascending trendline.
-fousc
More News........
Novavax Shares Surge on Bird Flu Fears
Tuesday October 25, 4:24 pm ET
Novavax Shares Surge on Second Straight Day After Confirmed Cases of Bird Flu Outside Asia
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of biotech company Novavax Inc. surged for the second consecutive day Tuesday, following a weekend where the avian flu virus H5N1 was identified in birds in Turkey, Romania and Russia and a dead parrot imported to Britain from South America was found to have been carrying the virus.
Novavax shares jumped $1.38, or 33 percent, to close at $5.53 on the Nasdaq, after reaching a new 52-week high of $5.88, at nearly 12 times their average volume. Shares closed up 10 percent on Monday, and started surging in August from a 52-week low of 70 cents, when the company presented animal data showing their vaccine could protect animals against avian flu.
Share prices edged slightly in after-market activity, down 7 cents to $5.46.
The company also announced in September that it would collaborate with Somerset, N.J.-based Wave Biotech to try to develop a way to produce its Virus-Like Particle avian flu vaccine on a commercial scale. The VLP imitates a virus to elicit an immune response, but cannot infect cells because it lacks the genetic material of a virus, unlike standard vaccines.
In an investor note on Friday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Trbovich upgraded Novavax to "Sector Perform" from "Underperform" and raised his target price to $3 from $1, after the company received a recent $12.5 million license and supply agreement from Esprit Pharma for the Estrasorb topical estrogen therapy.
However, the analyst also noted that fears of avian flu could focus attention on the VLP technology, which could possibly create quick versions of vaccines for mutated flu strains.
As evidenced in last year's flu vaccine shortages in the United States, vaccine-making suffers from the drawback of long ramp-up times, where the product must be incubated over months at a time using century-old chicken egg-based technology.
"If the company can be in human testing of the vaccine in early 2006, they will likely attract additional attention from the U.S. government or prospective partners," Trbovich told investors. "A partnership or significant U.S. government grant would additionally bolster our confidence in the program and NVAX's cash reserves. We believe that the media and political fervor surrounding avian flu will likely increase as we move farther into traditional flu season."
WOW! what a day to be holding NVAX, i dont think any of us saw this coming. Price action broke through all my anticipated resistence barriers. Ill continue to hold NVAX, though i feel a strong retracement is coming, I also feel the bird flu is just in its initial workings of spreading accross the world, sadly only more bad news is to come in the future, but lucky for us will benefit our stock prices.
-fousc
fousc, "rediculous" is spelled "ridiculous" with an "i"... NVAX IS RIDICULOUS! :D
the reason why Aussie's chart is different than yours is because his periodicy for the chart is weekly, not daily. Here is an example of a weekly chart with the price action near the 200 EMA.
-fousc
Quote
thanks fousc i see my mistake now. ( it even says nvax weekly at the top of his chart)
maxi
cool thanks i was wondering if you could be my editor for all my posts ive been searching for one 8)
-fousc
Another nice day for NVAX!!! WOW!!!
$1.38 (33.25%) gain with 51 million shares traded!!! 51 million!
After morning's early "brief" profit taking, NVAX started its steady climb like yesterday, and =BAM=, it shot up!!! The afternoon spike blew past my target of $4.50 - $5.00 and hit $5.88!!! setting another 52 week high! of $5.53!!! Oh My! Yes, my sell button was still broken today. :D
My wife, looking at the early morning volume agreed not to sell ;)
As I posted this morning before market open, my theory was once the profit taking was done, the buyers who missed out on Monday's gain started to "trickle" in, probably at market buy! With still very strong "BUY" interest in NVAX, buyers that are just finding out about NVAX (alerts, reports, news, etc.) and buyers that's been waiting for their bank transfers to show on their trade account probably jumped in at any price in fear of "spiking gains in price to $5+" And it happened today!
I saw a block sell and LARGE block buy on Lycos this morning, but they seem to be having problem posting their Institutional/money manager buy/sell activity tonight. I'll post as soon as they have it up (Yes, I did check other stock symbols to see if nobody bought/sold) ;)
If NVAX was a blip on the radar, we were a green beacon last week. Today, NVAX was a mega-ton neutron bomb that lit up the entire market and sent shock waves and rumbles to brokerage houses and investment offices! Yes!!!
Having broken through the 200 MA with already an analyst upgrade, I believe more analysts upgrades are on their way if NVAX continues its current performance, and performance it was today!!!
I am sure today was a spectacular day for the day traders! For swing traders that sold on yesterday's high, today's morning buy in would have resulted in a sweeeeeet gain!
For longs, the comfortable couches and recliners must be awefully "comfy" with a cold beer or an iced tea! And the shorts? my condolenses... :'(
So, where to now? "With spectacular gains, come spectacular profit taking" I must caution that this celebration must be followed with a very careful watch of activity tomorrow.
However, with today's "stellar" gains and volume activity, NVAX will attract many more buyers willing to buy in light of ongoing Avian bird news, tomorrow's CEO presentation at Life Science Conference in New York (Novavax sure knows how to promote and spread the word! ;)), and two more product release in about a week! And don't forget the release of Newsweek with "BIRD FLU" cover!!!
Tomorrow also looks very interesting and exciting!
Good trading!
NVAX continues to be the week and month volume leader with still the highest Institutional gain activity for the month!
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=One-Week+High-Volume+Gainers&btnQryFrm=Go
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.new#new
QuoteI'll buy NVAX back if it can clear this resistance on continued volume as all indicators are still in buy mode.
Well I would have bought back if I wasn't in bed with a perforated ear drum :o
Great action on NVAX and volume is outstanding, talk about confirmation on the breakout.
So I am out of NVAX and missed a great rise, but c'est la vie, that is trading can't worry about what was missed.
Well done to all in NVAX, interesting week shaping up
Thank you so much livelife, I listened to you on the NVAX board, saw your post referencing this site, and bought back into the stock after getting out a few weeks ago.
You are good - and I am a loyal follower.
Kind of New to this and I hope to make it some day! Thanks for all your good advise, posts, charts and DD.
I sold today @ 5.37... , bought @ 2.56 (just 2 weeks ago!!!) ..So it's enough for me..
Good look to all of the member board's.. with this and all others.. BTW the 3SOF portfolio is looking good!!!
Very nice!!! ;) Jump in while you can.....Yehaaa!!
I am sure glad I bought this stock, it is hitting the moon.....
Institutions are buying still. Recent Upgrade. Looking for $7.00
Support @ $4.21...3.38...2.45...2.09
MACD is bullish
Stochastic is bullish
Technicals
Record Volume
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
85.99%above 13-day EMA
170.42%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $162.46
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 11/09/2005
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform
Great work on this thread....must applaud again!!! ;)
"Today, NVAX was a mega-ton neutron bomb that lit up the entire market and sent shock waves and rumbles to brokerage houses and investment offices." -- LiveLife
That just about sums up today's performance doesn't it? ;)
But even that's an understatement of NVAX's potentials! NVAX still got a longs way to go. News keep coming, it'll keep chuggin. Don't forget we still have the regular flu season coming up. ::)
Hey ljtoomey!
Welcome to 3SOF!!!
I can't take all the credit. Other than my "ramblings" I just repost what posters at Yahoo MB post. It's a community effort. NVAX is one example!
The real thanks goes to David Randolph and Frederick Ramsburg who dedicated this website to us "retail" traders! = THANKS A LOT =
Don't forget tomorrow's CEO presentation at Life Sciences Conference in New York!
Good trading!
Novavax to Present at the C.E. Unterberg, Towbin Life Sciences Conference
Monday , October 24, 2005 17:04 ET
MALVERN, Pa., Oct 24, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) a specialty biopharmaceutical company, today announced that Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, will be presenting at the C.E. Unterberg, Towbin Life Sciences Conference on Wednesday, October 26, 2005.
WHEN: Wednesday, October 26, 2005 11:00 a.m. EDT
WHERE: The Palace Hotel, 455 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10022
HOW: The live broadcast of the presentation can be accessed through
our website at http://www.novavax.com. After the presentation date, the
web cast will be archived on our website for 90 days.
great run for NVAX i'm holding this one since Aug 29... it hits my limit order at $5.60 when i was away at my computer ..with 150.00% gain :o ... LET'S PARTY BABY!! for now bye-bye for NVAX & i'll be waiting for pullback... goodluck for those who still hold.
= Important alert for US taxpayers! =
For those realizing several thousands of dollars of gain from NVAX, consider this.
If you do not have a Roth IRA account, open one when you take profit (better yet, open one now - you can open a Roth IRA account with Scottrade with almost nothing!). I believe current year cap is $4,000/person and $8,000/married couple.
Buy back shares of NVAX (always on dips) ;) with your Roth IRA funded and all of your gains will be TAX FREE when you withdraw at 59!!!
Think, TAX FREE GROWTH and TAX FREE WITHDRAWL!!!
Thanks esschust for Yahoo Roth IRA link! http://taxes.yahoo.com/guide/rothira/
Also, you can open Roth IRA for your children, family, friends, yes even shorts and bashers ;) as long as they have "taxable" income for the year. ;)
I am opening a Roth IRA for my brother who just graduated from college. He'll have more than a few millions by the time he reaches the withdrawl age (yes, you can withdraw all at once!!!).
See you at retirement!!!
Good Roth IRA trading too!
nice! >:D >:D
Here's another very interesting news that's making me ponder:
Thanks gunboat1919 for the link!
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/topstories/tm_objectid=16286194%26method=full%26siteid=94762-name_page.html
http://www.pharmtech.com/pharmtech/data/articlestandard/pharmtech/362005/178583/article.pdf
With Avian H5N1 growing resistant to Roche's Tamiflu, Relenza (made by GlaxoSmithKline) is the only current "effective treatment" for the Avian flu. Clinically, Relenza is more effective than Tamiflu.
If the article's claim is true, then it's something we need to monitor on Thursday's Press Release by GlaxoSmithKline.
I wonder if GlaxoSmithKline is the company that got UK's "Sleeping Contract" for Avian vaccine? GlaxoSmithKline already received a modest $2.8 million US HHS contract for 84,300 treatment courses of Relenza, but as the chart shows below, not much has happened since the September 15, 2005 contract award date.
Second link indicates that as Avian "human" vaccines approach the production stage, companies are facing problems with not being able to produce "enough" doses of vaccine fast enough. Each year, flu vaccines must be re-made using the flu strains of the previous year, as annual flu virus seems to not stay the same. This annual run of vaccine production will not be adequate to meet the potential demands.
More reasons to listen to Novavax CEO presentation tomorrow at Life Sciences Conference in New York as to what Novavax's update on Avian is.
24 October 2005
VACCINE PLEDGE FOR UK
By Emily Nash
DRUGS giant GlaxoSmithKline could produce millions of doses of vaccine within months of a bird flu outbreak.
Once the strain was identified it would take one month to create the vaccine and a further three to four months to make it available for use.
The firm will announce this on Thursday. The Government is asking several vaccine manufacturers to draw up plans on how to meet demand after a virus strain is identified.
Glaxo already makes a drug, Relenza, that could be used to treat the symptoms of bird flu. It is a medicine that you inhale. Plans to vaccinate everyone in the UK against pandemic flu if a potentially fatal strain emerges were announced by the Government last week.
Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson said that 120million doses - the equivalent of two for every person - would be needed to cover the UK population
What a beast NVAX is! Traded more than its entire float today! I missed the entire ride up :-\ but I am hoping to catch this elevator on the way down. I'm surprised SVA didn't get any of the the action.
I confess I'm about as worried about bird flu as I am about cat flu, dog flu, or mad cow flu. But when the momo players go nuts in sector, you just hafta try and grab a piece of the action one way or another.
btw for those of you who need a Halloween costume idea, here's one: The Bird Flu. Make a beak to wear on your face, some chicken feet to strap on your shoes, put a thermometer in your mouth and an icebag on your head, and voila you're the bird flu.
Thanks for all the suggestions for the 3 SOF service and the analysis on NVAX :)
We'll be making some changes to our business model soon in a way that I think will please everybody on the Premium Service.
Considering NVAX, it's rise turned parabolic. Everyday the newspapers and TV's talk about new bird flu cases across Europe, but, as I said, even if nothing happens the companies well positioned will sell a lot, because governments and people worldwide want protection against the disease.
The stocks's rise turned parabolic. This means the advance will be fast and furious and when it's over the stock will possibly come down to levels below where everything started (possibly not, because of that estrasorb development - this is why NVAX is the best bird flu stock to own now).
Shorts are already kicking in, but I think that will only add fire to the ongoing bullish speculation.
Given this situation, my take on NVAX is as follows:
- Forget trading based on a trendline. Price completely got way from past levels, and if we waited for a trendline break to sell, a big chunk of profits would be lost.
- Forget about buying on a big pullback. The stock will probably continue to rise until it finds it's peak and when it turns south it won't turn north again (in major trend terms, it may have minor, not tradable, pullbacks). You either have the courage to buy high to sell higher or stay away from this speculative game.
So, what to do now?
Close my eyes and hold, whatever happens. Having a big profit isn't a reason to sell, not when momentum is rising (momentum is the speed of the advance). Momentum will probably decline before the price does.
I will add a new indicator to my chart, my favorite momentum indicator, the Rate of Change (ROC).
I have a target on the closing of a gap over the long term chart, which is $10.56, but this doesn't mean much. I'll keep analyzing day by day until I see «sell», the trendline is of no use in the event of a parabolic rise like the one NVAX is enjoying.
Just one more thing: a speculator needs to grab big profits when he finds these great stocks, these are the stocks that bring above average returns. A multi-bag profit in just one holding of a diversified portfolio like the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio has a massive impact on annual and long term performance. It's not those 10 or 20% profits that will make you rich. It's the multi-bag stocks :D
Thanks David -
I have a tendency to sell early, so yesteday I sold half my position at 5.57, keeping enougth to make me happy; The parabolic discussion is one that I always have issues with (sold VPHM early, then got back in and again sold too realy - so maybe I will learn my lesson) - but after having a double in NVAX I decided not to be greedy.
Did not re-enter HEB to my regret, and am curious why SVA is just mumbling along.
Thanks
Defender
Another good morning (good afternoon for you east of Atlantic Ocean!). :D
The European Indexes are all GREEN! FTSE up 34.90 (0.67%) and DAX up 6.88 (0.14%).
Since the European markets preceed the US markets, it's often an indication of US market action. We may have a bullish day today!
I rechecked Lycos I-watch site and it does not contain data from Monday (for any stock symbol)! :-\ So I pulled up the "week" time period instead. Looking at the charts below, the Institutional/money managers accumulated BIG time on Friday despite the gain. My extrapolated "newbie guess" ;) is that they accumulated on Monday also.
Now that NVAX is above $5, various mutual/hedge/private fund managers who has $5 restriction will now jump in. Having broken through the 200 MA on Friday with an analyst upgrade with yesterday's "stellar" performance (I mean $1.38 (33.25%) gain for a $4.15 stock is HUGE) "NVAX was like a mega-ton neutron bomb that lit up the entire market and sent shock waves and rumbles to brokerage houses and investment offices!"
David Randolph, due to NVAX's tremendous "popularity" and sudden "break out" of traditional chart trends, now considers NVAX a very "speculative" play with huge potential for gain/loss. For day traders and short-term swing traders (like me ;)), this caution should make us EXTREMELY careful about watching today's and week's activity.
For longs, "after stellar gains, follow stellar profit taking" rule will probably apply and price correction will bring NVAX down to pre "stellar" levels to resume its climb back up (those wanting to buy more shares, this pullback would be your buying opportunity). Enjoy the comfy couches and recliners with your cold beers and iced teas! ;)
As David stated before, Novavax is a SOLID company for non-Avian related issues. I had a chat with my retired part-time daytrader dad yesterday and discussed that the recent Institutional/Money Manager activity are probably due to Novavax's non-Avian issues (existing Estrasorb and future product lines and $12.5 million partnership). I do not believe that Novavax has reflected any significant Avian-related gains yet.
What we (yes including the shorts and bashers ;)) cannot ignore is the recent NVAX performance (gain and volume activity). These alone are something we must keep in mind, as rest of the market, in this still bearish market trend, look for a green blip or beacon of light saw a mega-ton neutron NVAX bomb go off yesterday. Many will come and check out NVAX and may buy.
Today, I am sure will be another exciting day for NVAX!
Don't forget! CEO will present at the Life Sciences Conference in New York at 11:00 EDT!
The live broadcast of the presentation can be accessed through Novavax website at http://www.novavax.com.
Good trading, and watch for the inevitable profit taking!
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg28377#msg28377
Unreal! I too sold yesterday because of greater than 60% return and I thought too much volume. How can the float keep turning over day after day???????????
How can the float keep turning over day after day???????????
How can the float keep turning over day after day???????????
I like volume, but wow! Another Randolph Rocket!
Parabolic huh? I should have retained more geometry from 25 years ago ???
BUYINS.NET: CKCM, JVA, NVAX, VSGN, QCYE, ZFPI Have Been Added To Naked Short Lists Today
Is that a sell signal ??? But i thought naked shorting is forbidden...but why i find this news on ameritrade under the news so its legal or what ??
???
I sold 40% of my position on MONDAY around 4.18 so have mixed feelings -- happy I kept 60%. The reason I sold (reluctantly, because I've been listening to their recent presentations via their website and it all sounds amazing) is because of how high the stock had risen relative to it's 50DMA. At the time it was about 115% above, now 150% above! According to IBD research, "The average winning stock will rise only 50% above the line, and the top 10% of winning stocks will get 70% above the line. When your stock reaches those limits, consider selling or lightening your position." I watched my profits slip away on SVA. Still holding, but I'm tired of giving up my gains. I've discovered that knowing when to sell is a much more difficult thing than knowing when to buy. I know that's stating the obvious. But I'm trying to figure out what works best for me. I've had regrets both selling too soon and not locking in my profits on the way up. Hind sight is 20/20.
Anyway, since IBD doesn't pay attention to stocks under $10 or $12, I'm not sure if that rule is relevant with stocks under $10. Anybody else pay attention to the 50DMA on these up-and-coming but low-priced stocks?
Thanks.
Theresa
Well - this does not always happen:
Took the sell-off as an opportunity to buy back the shares I sold yesterday. Bought 5k at 4.99!! (yesterday I sold 5k at 5.57!)
Feeling smart so far
Best
Defenderyou
CBMX .. I am sure most of you know this ... another flu play over .. big move today .. float is smaller than NVAX and HEB.
David any thoughts?
More accumulation activity by Institutional/money managers! Could it be that $5+ restricted fund managers are now buying? Anyway, this buying activity is a good indicator that these managers "anticipate" more gains. Why would fund managers spend $millions to make pennies. Like David mentioned, I believe managers buying at $5+ indicates that their target may be $10-$20 now.
Updated the Lycos I-watch charts for today.
Here's a "broader" picture of Institutional/money manager activity. As you can see, the obvious profit taking "sell execution" buy a small number of managers was more than anticipated. Most are on "hold" pattern probably monitoring market activity and calculating their "target sell" price. More accumulation activity even after yesterday's "stellar" gains indicates the managers buying at $5+ expect more growth. This is good.
Great CEO presentation at Life Sciences Conference in New York this morning!!!
Maybe that's why Institutional/Money Managers are buying/accumulating agains!!!
I am transcribing the presentation right now.
I'll post it as soon I am done...
Quote from: Terlisa on October 26, 2005, 12:47:03 AM
great run for NVAX i'm holding this one since Aug 29... it hits my limit order at $5.60 when i was away at my computer ..with 150.00% gain :o ... LET'S PARTY BABY!! for now bye-bye for NVAX & i'll be waiting for pullback... goodluck for those who still hold.
Well, nice pullback :D
So much for shorting. Tried shorting at $5.10 and Ameritrade said no shares available to short :-\ Will just have to make it a paper trade. ::)
CBMX - interesting play. I think we're getting to the stage of bird flu mania when questionable companies that have little to do with the sector put out press releases with "H151" and/or "bird flu" in them to get a pop in their stock price. Reading CBMX's profile on Yahoo, it looks like they want a piece of every momo play. Their profile includes "nanotechnology," "homeland security," "genetic analysis" (I think that's their 'in' if stem cells get hot again), and "biosensors" (that was their 'in' for the bird flu PR) >:D
Ouch. Where is everyone?
I sold half and then picked up a few thousand shares at $4.91 at the end of the day. Is the uptrend still in intact?
It is a good sign that SVA and HEB still moved up as the group is still strong.
P.S. I don't know how to short...
Well everyone must have the flu;
so as I did just like some of you - sold half at 5.57 yesterday and bought back at 4.99 earlier for most of the day I was in the money - in fact we actually almost went green - at the end of the day we were taken down to the 4.90s again, and I could not resist picking up more at 4.92 around 3.44pm and then filling my quota (did not get completely filled at 4.92) after hours at 4.88.
The other thing I did was buy some more ARQL at 7.00 - the stock has been behaving nicely all week, rising from the dead at 6.40 to 7.40s. Today is traded between 7.30 and 7.50 most of the day UNTIL the last 30 minutes the bottom fell out and the pps fell to a low of 6.92 all on some nervous longie dumping 17k shares via market order - now I got some new cash in so I could not resist trying to buy 5k more at 7.00. Again I got partially filled and now having an order AH for 4k at 7.05.
Either I am a genious doing this or tomorrow am when they have their earnings call, I will be in serious trouble.
Now for those of you that dont know about ARQL here is a recent desc of checkpoint activation as published in a recent journal:
Basically, these guys have develoed a technique to identify cells that cause Mitotic Arrest. This induces cell proliferation defects in multiple cancer cell lines - so they kill the cancer: non-toxic and 99% accurate from what I have read. The problem with the stock is they had a chem delivery business which generated $40 mil in revenue for a 248 mm mkt cap company. NO real explanation but they decided to exit. The stock fell from low 8s to 6.40 when I started buying a bit more. The other (KEY) issue is they are supposed to get Phase 1b approval for ARQ501, and it's clear that the phase1b and especially the phase2 are the crucial events when it comes to ARQ501 and it's success but the wait is excruciating - anyday any week any month now!! Tomorrow is earnings so this stock will rock or it will tank - I dont think there is an inbetween. But I am there
(Sorry to post this here but I started writing and here we are)
FROM ARQL MESSAGE BOARD ON YAHOO:
Looks like this may be the start of ARQ-450RP (mitotic checkpoint activators). No??
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstra ct&list_uids=16234339&query_hl=5
Identification of a Small Molecule That Induces Mitotic Arrest Using a Simplified High-Content Screening Assay and Data Analysis Method.
Wilson CJ, Si Y, Thompson CM, Smellie A, Ashwell MA, Liu JF, Ye P, Yohannes D, Ng SC.
Department of Chemical Genomics, ArQule Incorporated, Woburn, MA.
High-content screening has emerged as a new and powerful technique for identifying small-molecule modulators of mammalian cell biology. The authors describe the development and execution of a high-content screen to identify small molecules that induce mitotic arrest in mammalian cancer cells. Many widely used chemotherapeutics, such as Taxol(R) and vinblastine, induce mitotic arrest, and the creation of new drugs that also induce mitotic arrest may have tremendous therapeutic value. In their screen, the authors employed a simple DNA stain (DAPI) and a sensitive nonparametric statistical test to identify compounds from an internal collection of ~13,000 high-quality lead-like small molecules. Subsequent analysis of 1 active compound indicated that it induces mitotic arrest, assessed using a high-content phosphohistone H3 detection assay, and caused cell proliferation defects in multiple cancer cell lines. The active compound, a quinazolinone originating from a natural product-like subset of the screened compounds, is active in cells at ~500 nM and appears to act by inhibiting the polymerization of tubulin.
Note one of the authors is S.C. Ng who is Vice President of Drug Discovery Biology. This from the PR 10-13-04...."Dr. Shi-Chung Ng joined ArQule from Abbott Laboratories, where he was a founding member of Abbott oncology, a Senior Group Leader and a Volwiler Associate Fellow. He co-led efforts in the discovery and development of multiple oncology candidates in Abbott, including a Bcl-2 inhibitor, farnesyl transferase inhibitors, and novel anti-mitotics. Prior to his tenure at Abbott, Dr. Ng worked at Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Harvard Medical School. He is currently adjunct Assistant Professor at the Chicago Medical School, and adjunct Faculty Member at Northwestern University. He served as a visiting Professor at Rutgers University, a visiting Research Staff Member at Princeton University, and an Instructor in Medicine at Harvard Medical School. Dr. Ng is a reviewer on a number of prominent scientific journals including Brain Research, Oncogene, Biochemical Pharmacology and the Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics. He has published over 180 scientific papers, abstracts and patent applications, and is the recipient of awards such as the Abbott Volwiler Society Award, Howard Hughes Research Fellowship, David Ross Scholarship and Marshall Scholarship. Dr. Ng received a Ph.D. in Biochemistry from Purdue University, and a Postdoctoral Fellowship from Harvard Medical School. "ArQule has a great opportunity to be a leader in oncology innovation, and I am excited to be part of it, I believe I am in the right place at the right time for oncology drug discovery," said Dr. Shi-Chung Ng."
Take a look
Defenderyou
ARQL sounds pretty interesting. I hope their technique can save lives! I will read up on it.
I wonder if we are the only ones thinking that NVAX will go up tomorrow? Oh well, guess we have to be patient - I just hate giving up gains... as this is the first time in 6 months that my portfolio is starting to look good (thanks to 3stocksonfire).
NVAX has a market cap of only $200 million - that is hardly enough to cover the current products they have in the pipeline much less a possible bird flu vaccine contract.
VPHM headed down at the last hour also - the market was very weak.
Thanks for keeping this thread alive, Livelife. I problably wouldn't have bought NVAX without the great info you posted.
I read in the paper today that scientists say that bird flu could travel to North America by next year. This means possibly another year of media talk about Avian Flu. Even if the bird flu threat is an empty one for the U.S., the US govt must start funding research and stockpiling drugs.
I think the runup in these bird flu stocks have just begun. I will practice averaging up on NVAX and SVA. Good luck all.
Thanks and you are very welcome, logocovet!
As was indicated on previous posts, today's profit taking amidst a huge volume trading (37 million shares!) was "inevitable and overdue." Buyers of pre $2 - $4, and even $5 needed to be "flushed" out while the longs watched (gotta love these holders!). ;) The continued volatility provided day and swing traders with fantastic trading opportunities (up to $1.00 swing!!! oh my!)
The good news is that after a quick and early sell, the Institutional/money managers returned their buy/accumulation again all day long without selling! This is GREAT indication! :D Managers will not buy a $5 stock to sell at $5.50. No, they will buy because they "know" that gains of several dollars to tens of dollars are anticipated with this stock. Also, there was a mention that certain fund managers have a $5 restriction. If this is true, then our breakthrough past $5 have attracted new Institutional/money manager buyers. And we certainly welcome them.
After yesterday, I am sure the entire market is watching NVAX now for certain. As anticipated, NVAX continues to be the week and month volume leader, as also the month Institutional gain activity leader.
I spent this afternoon listening and transcribing the CEO's presentation at Life Sciences Conference in New York today. It has many great news and many continuing confirmations of all the "right" things Novavax is doing as a company. Since it is so long, I have split the transcript in two: Current product line and Avian vaccine.
As David Randolph noted in previous (premium) NVAX posts ;), past and recent gain/volume activity, I believe is due to the company's existing and expanding product lines and NOT due to Avian vaccine. I believe we have yet to see the Avian vaccine related gains yet.
I got clarification about Novavax Avian vaccine development. They ARE using DNA process to develop the Avian vaccine matched to the current strain of H5N1. They are using insect cell-culture process to mass produce high yield, low cost vaccines. And they are working on a single dose "human" immunogenic Avian vaccine (current vaccine requires a second dose after 30 days), and they are "actively" seeking government/corporate partnership/merger! WOW!!
For those who hate to read or can't wait, following is my favorite part of the CEO's presentation on Avian vaccine issue. I'll post the "full" transcript in two following postings:
The whole story is that we can make a particulate vaccine using genetic engineering, and customize that vaccine to the emerging strain, and make it highly immunogenic because of its inherent properties of being a particle, and by combing with an adjuvant like Novasomes.
And the last piece is "Can we manufacture large enough of this?" The current manufacturing processes are all made in eggs, and this is a 50 year old process. There's a lot of problem with this. There is no surge capacity. You can't get enough egg to produce for a pandemic flu. There is long lead time. There's allergy associated with egg.
What we have done is gone to this bag technology which I mentioned to you collaborating with Wave BioTech where we are using insect cells that we can grow in these bags that are disposable, easy to commission, and we can scale them up to 500 liters, put them in production facilities that don't need to be fancy, grow the cells in these bags and inoculate them with our virus seed and BOOM, you got vaccine.
And this can be commissioned not only in US, but world wide. So we believe that we can truly solve this world wide problem if we can combine this technology with our vaccine strategy both from immunogenicity stand point as well as matching of the vaccine to the strain.
So, I like to end by saying that as compared to what is out there, the solution that we have is egg-free, we don't have to worry about eggs, is rapid customization of the vaccine to the emerging strain, is highly immunogenic, we can rapidly commission large production, and we can get high yield and low cost, therefore we have a full solution to this problem.
Now, can Novavax as a small company solve this world wide problem? Probably not, but we believe that this is such a compelling story that we will be able to attract, hopefully, somebody out there that will help us, whether it is government or corporate partner, to really solve this world wide problem, and I am looking forward to participating in that.
Here's the first half of CEO's presentation at Life Sciences Conference in New York this morning:
Novavax story – "Evolving continuously over time"
Agenda:
Management team
New business strategy
Short-term driver – Drug delivery
Long-term driver - Vaccine
Dynamics of Avian Flu - Opportunity they are very excited about
Novavax – Been Public since 1995, Nasdaq (NVAX)
Two platforms of technologies:
1. Drug delivery
2. Vaccines
Drug delivery, FDA approved product Estrasorb
Emerging pipeline with about 10 new products – drug delivery technology
Vaccine side – we have the biggest opportunity we currently have on Avian flu
Management Team - Relatively new management team
CEO - background in vaccine, with Novavax for 1 1/2 year, worked for Merck 10 years
COO - Substantial experience with Eli Lily
CFO – With Novavax 5 years, seasoned accounting and financial professional
Head of clinicals - 26 years with Eli Lily
Rob Bailey? - Very excited to have him on board. Joined this month. Critical for pharmaceutical development and drug delivery business
Dale Smith? Head of vaccine. Baculovirus, 10 year with Novavax, chief scientist prior to Novavax
Craig Wright? Chief scientific officer, prolific Inventor of Nano-particle technology for the drug delivery of products
We have a very strong team- consisting with at least 5 of 7 people with advanced degrees in science & technology and this is in line with company transformation that's taking place.
Company recently transformed from a specialized pharmaceutical company that focused on women's health area to broad based product development company leveraging the companies for proprietary technology and also focusing on core competency.
We have eliminated the commercially failed marketing organization within the past three months . We have monetized many negative products, sold one for 2.5 million to barnell?
Recently announced Estrasorb licensing the drug to Esprit Pharma for $12.5 million upfront, plus royalties with $2 million down payment .
We have strength in our Product Development functions and we are focusing on developing licensing new products in addition to Estrasorb based on nano-particle technology.
And lastly but not least, we are focusing on Avian flu vaccine as long term goal driver for the company.
In terms of business strategy the value creation is developing new products and there are two ways to capture the value.
One is to direct sales of the product
Second is licensing and that's what we are focusing here, product based on our new technology
In terms of value driver short-term, we have products we developed based on nano particle technology
And the long-term driver is the vaccine, particularly the Avian flu
Estrasorb is the first commercial nano-particle product we licensed to Esprit Pharma. We are very very excited about the deal because it really shores up our balance sheet in terms of bringing large amount of cash to the company, also giving us a cash stream with the royalties that we are going to get from this deal, as well as the large down payment. It also validates the technology because of the size of the deal. We believe this is going to bore well for our new products based on the new technology
The value proposition in terms of partnering obviously is that we can create new branches of the nano-particle technology. We have a quick array of the licensing the product using the [FDA] 505B2 filing. We can leverage the learning from Estrasorb, which by the way is very important because we have gone through the entire FDA process so we understand what it is necessary in terms of quality control, in terms of manufacturing, etc., which generally becomes the bottleneck to get a new product licensed.
And finally we have world-class production facility with excess capacity which can be used for any of our new product
So, over all, bringing new product to market using nano-particle technology can be very very quick because we can commercially bring to market very quickly.
In terms of our product development in the nano-particle business we have hormone products which we have demonstrated proof of concept, obviously, Estrasorb, which is estrogen replacement therapy.
The end result is a Testosterone product which we have done clinical trial, currently in negotiations with companies to license it out. And we are getting some deal flow here in terms of getting some licensing opportunities.
We are trying to expand the technology beyond the topical delivery into oral product, such as oral immunosuppressant
We have a very well thought out product development strategy and it may look like we are working with large number of components, but because we can rapidly screen our formulations and we can rapidly do a proof of concept, we believe that this is the best way to harvest the potential of nano-particle technology and generate cash.
So, the business strategy with the nano-particle business is to generate cash by licensing these products.
Here's the second half of the conference presentation discussing Avian vaccine issue. Really a must read!
At this point I am going to shift gear and talk about our vaccine opportunity, particularly the Avian flu vaccine.
As most of you know, there's a lot of visibility in the Avian flu area, and the full solution to this problem that we all face is three fold:
One is that, the Avian flu virus is rapidly mutating, as you know, and so whatever vaccine that we have to come up with has to have a good match with the strain that's out there. So quick response to emerging strain is one of the key issues that technology has to answer.
Second thing is that you have to make enough of the product in a short amount of time, very quickly, so you have to have the surge capacity.
And the third thing is that you need to have immunogenicity of whatever vaccine you use. In other words, you don't have to inject a large amount of antigen to achieve a neutralizing antibody response.
So you have to have all three of these components to have a full solution, and we believe that Novavax has all three of these elements in the company right now.
To address the first problem, which is "How do you customize your vaccine to the emerging strain?" The answer there is that we work with genes rather then viruses. In other words, as soon as there is an emerging strain, we can collect the strain and extract the genes out of it and use those genes to produce the vaccine.
In terms of surge capacity, we have gone to a scalable, but flexible manufacturing system of using the wave BioTech technology of disposable bags and we believe that that particular technology will be easy to commission and will be able to and help us produce large amounts of vaccine to satisfy any demand should the pandemic hit.
Lastly we are working with a vaccine that is very immunogenic because we are working with particles rather than soluble proteins, which is what most of currently available vaccines are or some of the newer vaccines are. So we believe that by having a full solution, we can have an answer to this problem that is best in class.
The reason why we believe we are better off in terms of customizing our vaccine more rapidly to the emerging strain is because whenever there is a new strain of flu, you have to take the nasal swab from a person who has the flu, it goes to WHO, and WHO then produces the strain through reverse genetics (and that takes time) and provides the strain to the companies that make the vaccine which then grow them in eggs. And it takes several months before they can produce a vaccine.
In contrast, what we do whenever there is a primary flu virus, we get the strain quickly from WHO, and extract the genes and from genes produce what we call Virus Like Particle (VLP) which is made through recombinant DNA technology, and that process is much shorter compared to the 6 month process the traditional vaccine process takes.
The genetic engineering that we do is we take the three key genes out of the flu virus and take those three genes and put into a baculovirus vector and these vectors can be infected into insect cells and when they express their own proteins, they also express the three proteins from the flu virus. And these proteins assemble themselves in to structures that are like the actual influenza virus except that they do not contain any genetic material and therefore they are unable to infect the person taking the vaccine. So they are inherently safe, but because they look like the true influenza virus to the immune system, they are very efficient at lifting the immune response.
So by making a particulate vaccine, and by using genes, we are addressing two of the key issues that I pointed out. One that we can customize a vaccine exactly to the emerging strain and we can make immunogenic vaccine. The other thing I want to point out why a particulate vaccines are good is that protection level produced by 1 micro gram of VLP vaccine is almost same as 10 micro gram of soluble protein vaccine. The vaccine that Novavax is producing is more immunogenic than the soluble protein vaccine that is currently marketed or under development.
The second element that we are doing in addition to the particulate vaccine is that we have proprietary adjuvant. We have a proprietary adjuvant called Novasomes when combined with a vaccine results in substantially higher immunogenicity. Even after 1 week, shows substantially higher immuogenic response even with single dose of vaccine. None of the current vaccines have been able to provide an effective level of protection with a single dose. In a pandemic, it will be very difficult for people to come back after 30 days for a second shot. Certainly we have more work to do here, but there's indication that that can be done.
The whole story is that we can make a particulate vaccine using genetic engineering, and customize that vaccine to the emerging strain, and make it highly immunogenic because of its inherent properties of being a particle, and by combing with an adjuvant like Novasomes.
And the last piece is "Can we manufacture large enough of this?" The current manufacturing processes are all made in eggs, and this is a 50 year old process. There's a lot of problem with this. There is no surge capacity. You can't get enough egg to produce for a pandemic flu. There is long lead-time. There's allergy associated with egg.
What we have done is gone to this bag technology which I mentioned to you collaborating with Wave BioTech where we are using insect cells that we can grow in these bags that are disposable, easy to commission, and we can scale them up to 500 liters, put them in production facilities that don't need to be fancy, grow the cells in these bags and inoculate them with our virus seed and BOOM, you got vaccine.
And this can be commissioned not only in US, but world wide. So we believe that we can truly solve this worldwide problem if we can combine this technology with our vaccine strategy both from immunogenicity stand point as well as matching of the vaccine to the strain.
So, I like to end by saying that as compared to what is out there, the solution that we have is egg-free, we don't have to worry about eggs, is rapid customization of the vaccine to the emerging strain, is highly immunogenic, we can rapidly commission large production, and we can get high yield and low cost, therefore we have a full solution to this problem.
Now, can Novavax, as a small company solve this worldwide problem? Probably not, but we believe that this is such a compelling story that we will be able to attract, hopefully, somebody out there that will help us, whether it is government or corporate partner, to really solve this world wide problem, and I am looking forward to participating in that.
Girl in China bird flu village dies: HK paper
HONG KONG (Reuters) - A 12-year-old girl died suffering flu-like symptoms in a village in central China where the mainland's third outbreak of bird flu in a week has been confirmed, the South China Morning Post said on Thursday.
ADVERTISEMENT
He Yin and her 10-year-old brother fell ill about a week ago after eating a sick chicken that had died, the Post said, quoting their father, He Tieguang.
"We had dead chickens before and nobody has ever got sick because of that. So I thought it's okay," her father was quoted as saying.
So far there was no evidence linking her death to the outbreak of bird flu in the village in Hunan province and none of the adults in her family had shown any flu symptoms, the paper said. Doctors told her family she had died from fever.
The newspaper did not say when the girl died.
China has said the Hunan outbreak had been brought under control.
Farmers in the village of Wantang said many birds suddenly died about 10 days ago, the newspaper said.
The World Health Organization has said the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is endemic in poultry in China and across much of Asia. Health experts fear it may only be a matter of time before it develops the ability to pass easily from human to human, triggering a pandemic.
Since breaking out in late 2003 in South Korea, H5N1 has killed more than 60 people in four Asian countries and reached as far west as European Russia, Turkey and Romania, tracking the paths of migratory birds.
China has reported no human cases so far.
Hi ;)
Today's conference presentation transcript:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg28558#msg28558
Here are the week and month volume leaders and month Institutions gain activity:
Great news for NVAX this morning:
«Novavax Bond Holders Elect to Convert $6 Million of Outstanding Notes
Oct 27, 2005 8:00:00 AM
MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) announced today that certain holders of $6.0 million face amount of the company's 4.75% senior convertible notes due July 15, 2009 (the "Notes") exercised their optional conversion right to convert such Notes into 1,056,338 shares of Novavax Common Stock at the per share conversion price of $5.68. As a result of the conversion, the aggregate principal amount of Notes outstanding will be reduced from $35.0 million to $29.0 million and the company's stockholders' equity will be increased by the same amount. In addition the company's annual interest expense will be reduced by $285,000. With this conversion, the total outstanding shares of Novavax increases to 44,910,214.»
Unfortunately today I don't have time to address your questions and comments, I think shorting this stock is insane and I'll continue holding it.
Good moring to the west of Atlantic Ocean and good afternoon to the east! :D
I posted the transcript of yesterday's Life Sciences Conference presentation by CEO in New York, and there are some very good news and continuing confirmations that the company is doing the "right" things!!!
CEO confirmed that Novavax is actively seeking "government or corporate partner"!!! Yes!!! Can you say possible merger/another partnership? WOW!!!
CEO also stated that in addition to the FDA approved Estrasorb and the two new products that will be announced in about a week, Novavax has "Emerging pipeline with about 10 new products!" So unlike some other Avian plays, Novavax has SOLID and ACTUAL product lines that are generating cash revenue ($12.5 million payment and continuing royalties with Estrasorb plus release of two new products in one week)!
CEO also stated that Novavax has "FULL SOLUTION" to the Avian virus problem.
"The whole story is that we can make a particulate vaccine using genetic engineering, and customize that vaccine to the emerging strain, and make it highly immunogenic because of its inherent properties of being a particle, by combining with an adjuvant like Novasomes."
And this Novasomes, which already demonstrated clinical effectiveness for Novavax to develop a single dose "human" Avian vaccine (instead of current 2 dose vaccines that requires a second shot after 30 days) is a "proprietary" product! - Can we say licensing!!! $$$
With Novavax having the mass manufacturing process (Wave BioTech) and "world-class" facility to allow fast and cost-effective vaccine production, as CEO stated, Novavax offers a solution to the Avian virus problem that is "BEST IN CLASS"!!! Yes!!!
These are great news and ongoing developments!!!
I am playing catch up here, :D and the next post will confirm what CEO presented yesterday.
I believe this article nicely confirms CEO's statesments yesterday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051025/novavax_mover.html?.v=1
Novavax Shares Surge on Bird Flu Fears
Tuesday October 25, 4:24 pm ET
Novavax Shares Surge on Second Straight Day After Confirmed Cases of Bird Flu Outside Asia
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of biotech company Novavax Inc. surged for the second consecutive day Tuesday, following a weekend where the avian flu virus H5N1 was identified in birds in Turkey, Romania and Russia and a dead parrot imported to Britain from South America was found to have been carrying the virus.
Novavax shares jumped $1.38, or 33 percent, to close at $5.53 on the Nasdaq, after reaching a new 52-week high of $5.88, at nearly 12 times their average volume. Shares closed up 10 percent on Monday, and started surging in August from a 52-week low of 70 cents, when the company presented animal data showing their vaccine could protect animals against avian flu.
Share prices edged slightly in after-market activity, down 7 cents to $5.46.
The company also announced in September that it would collaborate with Somerset, N.J.-based Wave Biotech to try to develop a way to produce its Virus-Like Particle avian flu vaccine on a commercial scale. The VLP imitates a virus to elicit an immune response, but cannot infect cells because it lacks the genetic material of a virus, unlike standard vaccines.
In an investor note on Friday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Trbovich upgraded Novavax to "Sector Perform" from "Underperform" and raised his target price to $3 from $1, after the company received a recent $12.5 million license and supply agreement from Esprit Pharma for the Estrasorb topical estrogen therapy.
However, the analyst also noted that fears of avian flu could focus attention on the VLP technology, which could possibly create quick versions of vaccines for mutated flu strains.
As evidenced in last year's flu vaccine shortages in the United States, vaccine-making suffers from the drawback of long ramp-up times, where the product must be incubated over months at a time using century-old chicken egg-based technology.
"If the company can be in human testing of the vaccine in early 2006, they will likely attract additional attention from the U.S. government or prospective partners," Trbovich told investors. "A partnership or significant U.S. government grant would additionally bolster our confidence in the program and NVAX's cash reserves. We believe that the media and political fervor surrounding avian flu will likely increase as we move farther into traditional flu season."
More great news!
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051027/phth012.html?.v=31
Novavax Bond Holders Elect to Convert $6 Million of Outstanding Notes
Thursday October 27, 8:00 am ET
MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) announced today that certain holders of $6.0 million face amount of the company's 4.75% senior convertible notes due July 15, 2009 (the "Notes") exercised their optional conversion right to convert such Notes into 1,056,338 shares of Novavax Common Stock at the per share conversion price of $5.68. As a result of the conversion, the aggregate principal amount of Notes outstanding will be reduced from $35.0 million to $29.0 million and the company's stockholders' equity will be increased by the same amount. In addition the company's annual interest expense will be reduced by $285,000. With this conversion, the total outstanding shares of Novavax increases to 44,910,214.
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg28552#msg28552
Suspected human to human Avian Flu transmission in Thailand:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10260506/H5N1_Thailand_Cousin.html
WHO is underreporting avian flu pandemic:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10250503/H5N1_Thailand_1134.html (http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10250503/H5N1_Thailand_1134.html)
Livelife, a question: I noticed that the MSN site lists NVAX first b/c it is the biggest price gainer on increased insitutional activity. Is it also saying that it has the largest increase in institutional buying?
OK hyperactive traders. When is it a buy again?
QuoteOK hyperactive traders. When is it a buy again?
I am covering the paper-trade short position I took yesterday at the 9 ema (currently $4.06). Probably hits the 9 tomorrow. That would be a possible buy point for the hyperactive trader.
Just heard on CNBC that Chiron Corp got the government bird flu vaccine contract.
What can I say... :'(
What happened today?
Was it the bearish market trend? Was it profit taking that went overboard?
I had to look at my wife this morning and we made an executive decision.
With the broad based sell off (the sea of red!), we decided to sell and hold cash and ride out the bearish market trend. And return on rebound.
While I watched the intraday charts in disbelief, I began looking at my 20-40 stock list that I was going to "diversify" my gains from NVAX into. I had a discussion with my retired daytrader dad and I decided to "park" my money in GNBT (yes, he gave me the "buy" nod).
GNBT was one of few "Avian related" plays that wasn't affected by the bearish selloff. So, I figured that it would be a good stock to be "parked" in while reassessing the bearish market trend and the Avian stock plays.
I bought 36,000 shares at $1.34.
Good trading!
There are days that I just do not get the market. All great news and it just went down like a rockets. What is up???? I really saw it go up further and got in this morning. Way to high now it appears :'( . Really hope it is just profit taking.... :-\ Have to say that it does not make sence to me if it is anything else? What with all the big guys getting in at $ 4,92 yesterday???? Don't get it!
Amarens
Where is everyone?
See below:
Scientists Make Human Vaccine for H7N1 Bird Flu Virus (Update3)
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European Union scientists and researchers from Sanofi-Aventis SA have developed the first human vaccine for the H7N1 bird flu virus, which can spread from poultry to people.
Is it over for NVAX?
Hi,guys,
if you sold NVAX this morning,then you got chance to buy WRMA @$3.5 ,and you have more than 50% gain already.....
Still have chance today...
H7N1 is one of several varieties of avian influenza. The latest craze has been over an H5 strain. There are multiple strains of H5, H7 and H9. So I don't know how that news could bring down the whole bird flu maniacal trading, but I guess anything is possible. The volume and trading patterns do not make any sense to me anyway.
Biotech is like rolling the dice. I advise to only use small percentages of your capital.
NVAX has gone up in a straight line. It's only normal for some profit taking to occur. It hasn't even touched the 20 day ema since it was under 2, and it's still .82 away from it.
I'll probably be buying in the next few days once everything cools down.
LiveLife :
All that BRAVADO... you stated "not selling until the institutions do" etc... guess the swing trader beat out the investor. Good luck and thanx for all of you info, i learned some good web sites. Cheers joe
Ahkk. Am I the only one left here holding the bag?
NOPE lots of us bag holders here with you, and institutions as well! Hope they are more right than wrong! Cheers Joe
What a shit day (excuse my English) - bought more NVAX - earlier at 4.60 and then lots more at 4.02. I am in for broke now - will dump all on anything below 3.95, as I think if we break down lower we are looking at nother pretty bog move down tomorow. This need to get above 4.20 and stay there, and I aint sure that it will be so. Be most curious in your opinions - I am about SVA too as all got wacked today (inc HEB). My ARQL got hit hard late inthe day down to 6.50 area. Fortunately only bought a few more shares and then pulled the order.
HOM is the only one of my group that held up, and let me not say too much about XMSR - I swore I would never play that stock again (bought at 6 sold at 11) as I never made money since its been at 11.0!! But I broke my cardinal rule and got hosed today.
Worst day I had in a while - but easy come easy og.
I juts hope I make better decisions tomorrow and hope that NVA does not fall below 4 and stay there or I will be real sad!!
OPINIONS?
Someone on yahoo message board for NVAX said that NVAX at 10 ema is at 3.85
I don't know if that is true as I can not read charts. Today was nasty! I lost $15,000 today on VPHM (which will prob be okay), SVA, HEB, NVAX. Still holding VPHM, HOM, NVAX (got stuck in this). NVAX, HEB, SVA marketcaps are soooo low. I would think they would be worth it just on their products in the pipeline. HEB has ampligen completing Phase III. SVA is a great Chinese biotech presenting at WHO on Nov 7. NVAX has various products in the pipeline and a fast method to product vaccines....
Any one else have opinions?
Really, I'm not alone? How do we really know that institutions have been buying?
http://www.insearchoftheperfectinvestment.com/
Oh my gosh - check this article out:
http://www.insearchoftheperfectinvestment.com/
Do you think the institutions sold today or are they still in?
Quote from: LiveLife on October 27, 2005, 02:27:05 PM
What can I say... :'(
What happened today?
Was it the bearish market trend? Was it profit taking that went overboard?
I had to look at my wife this morning and we made an executive decision.
With the broad based sell off (the sea of red!), we decided to sell and hold cash and ride out the bearish market trend. And return on rebound.
While I watched the intraday charts in disbelief, I began looking at my 20-40 stock list that I was going to "diversify" my gains from NVAX into. I had a discussion with my retired daytrader dad and I decided to "park" my money in GNBT (yes, he gave me the "buy" nod).
GNBT was one of few "Avian related" plays that wasn't affected by the bearish selloff. So, I figured that it would be a good stock to be "parked" in while reassessing the bearish market trend and the Avian stock plays.
I bought 36,000 shares at $1.34.
Good trading!
As the news of today's bearish selloff gets around, a lot of people are going to be upset and probably "vent" and will say the wrong things out of shock and frustration.
I too could not believe my eyes this morning after having done "exhaustive" postings on Novavax. I kept telling myself and everyone that this morning was just an extended profit taking after "spectacular" gains on Tuesday. I spent several hours listening to the conference presentation and painfully transcribed almost every word (yes, the CEO does need some speech lessons), he spoke and was convinced with each passing paragraph how "right" Novavax is. I still believe in the company and the new leadership of the management team.
But we are stock traders, not investors. If you are an investor or long, you can ignore the rest of this post because I believe Novavax will rebound and continue it's climb back to the "destined" target it will reach, as Avian flu is played out. Longs will probably stay in until the managers start to sell.
As I stated numerous times before, I am a swing trader, who took a break on NVAX to become a "temporary" long. As of today, I am back in "FULL" swing trader mode. Yes, I already had a nice talk with my wife who reviewed my trade log and found that I let over $20,000 worth of swing trades go. I am glad to report that when I finally sold NVAX this morning, I made $25,000 (She still insists that I should have swing traded). ;)
My initial take on what happened today is that there was a broad based bearish sell off today, not just the Avian plays. I do not believe it was anything Novavax did or Avian related. This is the stock market, and days like today does exists. if you don't believe that, then you need a reality check of current volatile bearish market trend we have been in since July (about the time I seriously started back stock trading!) see "Bear" chart below.
What next? If you are holding NVAX, then market will probably rebound. Will it happen tomorrow? I am not a fortune teller. What happended today will make a lot of people have a second and more cautious look at Avian plays and the stock market as a whole. Should you buy/hold/sell? I believe that will depend on what happens tomorrow and there on.
In a still bearish market, Avian related bio-tech sector gave a nice place for the traders to "camp out" the past several weeks. I believe today will change all that. Tonight, there will be reviews after review. Charts will be examined and various analysis done as to what happened today.
As David stated earlier this week, "NVAX is now a speculative play." I think that sums it up nicely. We all speculated on NVAX and some of us still experienced a very nice gain. Some of us that came in late, experienced a lot of loss yesterday and today.
Once the reality of the market set in, I had to cash out (yes, as long as I am married to my wife, she will make me do that after so many % of loss). Not wanting to miss out on a rebound gain (the swing trader in me), I quickly reviewed my 20-40 stock list and even called my dad (retired part-time daytrader) and we discussed what we should do. In the sea of red, GNBT was the only green beacon that had significant gain today, seemingly "immune" to the bearish selloffs that were going on. I did the fastest chart/technical analysis that I have done in my life and "parked" my trading capital, 36,000 shares! Although, even GNBT was not immune to the bearish afternoon and closed at $1.21 (down $0.04) from the day's high of $1.51 (missed out on another $4,000 of gain...Dang). ;)
Crazy? I am probably certifiable after today. ;)
As soon as I made the buy, I tried to alert everyone else. I made my post here and placed numerous =ALERT= posts in Yahoo MB in the hopes that those still holding NVAX shares will not experience any more loss today (I sold at $4.30).
What next? I am going to review my trade log tonight and the 20-40 stock list that I have monitored and determine which stock(s) I will want to buy back on rebound of stock(s) and/or market. In the meantime, I'll have my trade capital parked with GNBT and will post there.
I'll monitor the NVAX board and respond post if there are specific questions addressed to me. I have been corresponding with quite a few traders by email and you can email me as well (I do respond). ;)
Take care,
Good trading!
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg28821#msg28821
I think this ia a normal pullback that should be bought once it bottoms.. lotsa momo players had entered the stock and started taking profits at 6ish top
not sure if it gets there but I will add at 3.
JMHO
I have to applaud you Livelife for all your time and effort invested in NVAX ;D
You have done a great job and your contributions have not gone unnoticed :)
Good luck on GNBT!...and I too think NVAX is just taking a breather for awhile.
Goodluck to all holders of NVAX!
thanks,
julia
Thanks Julia! ;)
I am finding that most traders took profit early and stayed out of today's selloff! Great!
Good trading!
Here's GNBT link:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=744.new#new
For tomorrow, look for NVAX to open at todays closing price ( 4.01 ). I expect it to close only slightly lower at the 10 dma for support. But between the open and the close there should be a swing trade possible up to 4.38.
You can view a similar hard sell-off pattern in this stock during the last two days of August.
Level two had consistent buy support at the 4 dollar area right into the close and during the after hour trade.
The release of any positive news from the company, or external bird flu ( government or corporate news driven events ) would alter the projected trading pattern. In which case we would be off to the races again. So if we break 4.38 with volume on news ( which would be confirmed by rising prices in HEB and GNBT also ) it would then be wise to hold your shares.
Still holding my NVAX paper-short and expecting a climax selloff in the morning and then a bounce. I left an hour before market close today - all the red in my port was hurting my eyes! My shorts (real, not paper) did well today, but most of my long positions seem to have caught that nasty bird flu :-\
hi,
just a little quote i read after today's action
nice quote from sir john templeton
"bull markets are born on skepticisim, mature on optimisim, and die on euphoria." ;D
happy trading everyone
maxi
looks like just a pullback after a hug gain.
When everybody buying the same stock,probablly you gotta quit...is that still right?
$5.88/50M volume/much much more posts than any subject here /and everybody loaded witm NVAX...is it time to pullback a little bit?
Keep in mind that we have experienced a bearish market trend since July (see Bear chart below). During this time, Avian related plays and sector enjoyed a very nice gains in recent weeks.
I stated on previous posts the following:
"After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated. There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions. This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off."
I believe what happened today was more of the same, but instead of a sectorwide selling, there was a broad marketwide selling.
I believe NVAX and other Avian plays will rebound, as before, but for this "swing trader" who took a break on NVAX to become a "temporary" long, today forced me to return back to my stock trading basics and review my stock list.
What my wife pointed out after reviewing my trade log was that, while I was "long" this past week, I let over $20,000 worth of swing trades by. Not taking profit after a significant gain goes against my own trading basics and I realized that I am a trader, not an investor.
I'll continue reviewing my list of 20-40 stocks and also "refresh" my "swing" trading principles. I started by trading seriously in July, the start of historically the bearish time of the year, and painfully learned my lessons how hard it is to gain in a "bearish" market trends. I must take the reality of current bearish market condition and trade "defensively" with even tighter buy/sell criteria and ranges.
I previously posted in Yahoo NVAX MB that "any hiccup, there will be marketwide selloff," and it happened today.
Will the market/sector recover? Time will tell.
Will NVAX recover, I believe so, mainly because not only did the Institutional/money managers not sell, but there was more accumulation activity all day long, again. This was a bright news after what happened today. See Lycos I-watch charts and "LARGE" Institutional/money manager percentage.
Will other Avian stocks recover? Probably, because of the ongoing Avian fear and increasing media coverage.
What next? That depends on the individual trader.
If you are a day trader, there may be nice trading opportunities for days to come. If you are a swing trader, more caution must be exercised during this still "bearish" market, even more so after today. If you are long, the market/sector and NVAX will rebound and resume the climb up.
Good trading!
Oh, what a shame, this was a "tradable" decline, wasn't it? I just left an 100% plus profit turn into "just" 50%.
But, you know, I'm not that worried on NVAX. I see strong support at the $3.70-$3.85 area.
I agree with the hypertrader, Lucas (nice name) Scott, when he says the stock will have a sell climax today to this area and then rebound strongly.
I'm really no Elliot Wave expert, but I know a few things ... their theories apply much better to "emotion driven" stocks like NVAX, and basically the theory says that an advance phase naturally has 3 rises and 2 falls. We've had wave 1, 2 and 3 and the current wave is the 4th. We still need the last rise, the 5th wave, to new highs to complete the pattern.
What I see is NVAX clawing back up to the highs, breaking them on the upside but now with lower volume ... that will be a bearish divergence that I'll use to sell, probably between $7 and $8.
But, I might be wrong and this thing falls of a cliff. I don't think so, usually stocks give a second chance to sell near the highs (there was no top pattern, and there should be one for the recent high to be the top).
I'm expecting NVAX to quickly come back up. I don't want to see it closing below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this last leg up ($3.70), or I'll take my profits and move on.
The large drop in price over the last two days were expected. From a chart perspective, NVAX was simply becoming too parabolic and a shooting star that reached beyond the unfathomable $6 range had formed. Retracement and consolidation is healthy to sustain a bullish stock. As for NVAX, retracement is long-overdue especially after a series of seemingly endless, phenomenal gains recently. Today's drop brought NVAX back down to the 50 DMA on a 6 week chart and filled back all the gains that had occurred since Monday. The drop might have been exacerbated by today's across the market bearish performance (Dow -115.03; -1.1%).
But judging from charts and indicators, NVAX is still bullish. Here's why:
- More buyers than sellers: Correction from the past 2 days had relatively high volume, but nothing compared to the 51 million shares traded on 10/25, the day NVAX shot up 33%.
- High instituational buying: I-Watch reports 25% of volume today were from institutions... and all indicators were heavy buying! This means institutions were largely accumulating all the sold shares today. Assuming this is not a reporting error, this is phenomenal since the monthly average is usually around 1-2%. Rarely do institutions pay much attention on small caps. Institutional buying signals a go for strong buy. Don't fight the flow!
- Uptrend still intact: No breach in the latest uptrend line following the 50 DMA. See technical analysis on the NVAX chart.
My Prediction for Friday and next week:
- Best case scenario: NVAX shows strong support at the 50 DMA and closes above $4 and the 50 DMA. "Pennant" formation over the next week(s) sets up for another run up.
- "Worse" case scanario: Correction continues and NVAX drops down to $3, showing support at the previous uptrend line. This however should be the furthest south NVAX will go. "Ascending triangle" formation later leads to another run up.
- In either case, instituational accumulation and uptrend should continue.
Bottom Line: There is no reason why investors doing their DD should worry about NVAX breaking out of its uptrend and become a failed stock. High volume consisting of institutional accumulation and heavy buying even on down days are just a few of the many indicators for a bullish stock.
More posts at http://www.dinvestor.com. Leave comments to tell me what you think! ;)
nice posting (D) Investor, applaud
cheers
O.
(D) Investor has posted the following analysis:
Quote from: [D] Investor on October 28, 2005, 06:17:21 AM
The large drop in price over the last two days were expected. From a chart perspective, NVAX was simply becoming too parabolic and a shooting star that reached beyond the unfathomable $6 range had formed. Retracement and consolidation is healthy to sustain a bullish stock. As for NVAX, retracement is long-overdue especially after a series of seemingly endless, phenomenal gains recently. Today's drop brought NVAX back down to the 50 DMA on a 6 week chart and filled back all the gains that had occurred since Monday. The drop might have been exacerbated by today's across the market bearish performance (Dow -115.03; -1.1%).
But judging from charts and indicators, NVAX is still bullish. Here's why:
- More buyers than sellers: Correction from the past 2 days had relatively high volume, but nothing compared to the 51 million shares traded on 10/25, the day NVAX shot up 33%.
- High instituational buying: I-Watch reports 25% of volume today were from institutions... and all indicators were heavy buying! This means institutions were largely accumulating all the sold shares today. Assuming this is not a reporting error, this is phenomenal since the monthly average is usually around 1-2%. Rarely do institutions pay much attention on small caps. Institutional buying signals a go for strong buy. Don't fight the flow!
- Uptrend still intact: No breach in the latest uptrend line following the 50 DMA. See technical analysis on the NVAX chart.
My Prediction for Friday and next week:
- Best case scenario: NVAX shows strong support at the 50 DMA and closes above $4 and the 50 DMA. "Pennant" formation over the next week(s) sets up for another run up.
- "Worse" case scanario: Correction continues and NVAX drops down to $3, showing support at the previous uptrend line. This however should be the furthest south NVAX will go. "Ascending triangle" formation later leads to another run up.
- In either case, instituational accumulation and uptrend should continue.
Bottom Line: There is no reason why investors doing their DD should worry about NVAX breaking out of its uptrend and become a failed stock. High volume consisting of institutional accumulation and heavy buying even on down days are just a few of the many indicators for a bullish stock.
thanks for the update (applaud)
list of BOND buyers from SEC filling:
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0000950133%2D04%2D002788%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2004%5C07%5C19%5C&CoName=NOVAVAX+INC&FormType=8%2DK&RcvdDate=7%2F19%2F2004&pdf=
SCHEDULE OF BUYERS
Aggregate Principal, Legal Representative's, Buyer, Address and Facsimile Number Amount of Notes, Address and Facsimile Number
1.
Smithfield Fiduciary LLC
c/o Highbridge Capital
Management, LLC
9 West 57 th Street, 27 th Floor
New York, New York 10019
Attention: Ari J. Storch
Adam J. Chill
Facsimile: (212) 751-0755
Telephone: (212) 287-4720
Residence: Cayman Islands
$ 12,000,000
2.
SF Capital Partners Ltd.
3600 South Lake Drive
St. Francis, Wisconsin 53235
Attention: Brian Davidson
Facsimile: (414) 294-7\4416
Telephone: (414) 294-7016
Residence: British Virgin Islands
$ 5,000,000
3.
Portside Growth and Opportunity Fund
c/o Ramius Capital Group, L.L.C.
666 Third Avenue,
26 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Jeffrey Smith
Roger Anscher
Facsimile: (212) 845-7999
Telephone: (212) 845-7955
Residence: Cayman Islands
$ 5,000,000
4.
Winchester Global Trust
Company Limited as
Trustee for
Caduceus Capital Trust
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Bermuda
$ 1,500,000
5.
Caduceus Capital II, L.P.
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Delaware
$ 750,000
6.
UBS Eucalyptus Fund, L.L.C.
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Delaware
$ 1,350,000
7.
PW Eucalyptus Fund, Ltd.
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Cayman Islands
$ 150,000
8.
HFR SHC Aggressive Fund
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Bermuda
$ 250,000
9.
Finsbury Worldwide Pharmaceutical Trust
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: United Kingdom
$ 2,000,000
10.
Deutsche Bank AG London
c/o DB Advisors L.L.C.
280 Park Avenue
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Paul Bigler
Facsimile: (212) 454-0968
Telephone: (212) 454-1221
Residence:
$ 7,000,000
Conversion price will be 5.68$ as stated before....
cheers
O.
Think I'll put one foot back in NVAX
wtf?
Quote from: danman3459 on October 28, 2005, 10:36:31 AM
wtf?
Let's see if this is the climactic selloff before the next rocket to the moon.... >:D
I'm back in at 3.60
This is getting nasty...
I am in at 3.86.. I cant believe that as soon as 3.85 support was broken there was no trading between 3.6 - 3.8....
>:D
SVA did the same thing - $5.80 immediately to $5.55. Unfortunately, I'm in a lot higher than that :(
Huge volume on drop to 3.37. Lots of stops hit the chopping block! Weak hands flew the coop. Volume much lower on rebound. Dont be chicken, Hop back in. Hope I dont get plucked!
Good morning!
Last night, I reviewed my list of stocks and did a lot of thinking. Since I am back in "full" swing trader mode, for short-term swing trading, I narrowed down my three choices to NVAX, HEB and SVA (stocks that experienced the most amount of loss recently for maximum rebound gains).
With still bearish market trends in the near future, I decided to convert to cash this morning while I waited for a good entry point.
As anticipated, the NVAX selloff continued from last two days. With NVAX having gone from $6 to $3.50, I decided that NVAX had the most to rebound for swing trade.
I bought 12,000 shares at $3.47 and will be setting my next sell target.
Good to be back in NVAX and Good trading! :D
Howdie
Why do you see the support here? I saw it at the 4.10 last hoy... got back in with some at 4.3 and 4.0 another BAGHOLDER!
Institutions are still buying. cheers joe
Normally post on members board, but given that I met some of you on the NVAX Yahoo Board just wantd to say that I stoped out at 3.60 but reentred at 3.43 and took short-term profits at 3.65, on the last brekdown below 3.70. I know David said willhold NVAX if it closes above 3.70, which it may or may not, so am looking toget back in either higher or lower. But I still hold lots of long-term shares half of which were bought in high 2s and in the rest in the 4s. Actually I have probaly lost money overall so am feeling pretty stupid, but I think those that re-entered in the 3.40s did well; I just did not have the perseverance to run with 35k shares all the way down again to 3.30s and lower. FEAR I guess. Still have 20k shares core but am trading 15k as well.
Any opinions on SVA - as the brekdwon below 5.55-5.60 is pretty unnerving. Sure looks liek the whoel flu thing is unraveling - what I cant tell is if its just temporary or not. The frop on SVA was one big dump!
Do we go with NUTS or daves plan???? decisions decisions..... IT was only a 2 weeks ago that NVAX went under 2 and everyone sold out regreting it. The ride is not over. what do you guys think. I bought in more with small amounts in order to allow me to buy more at either lower amounts or watch my loss turn into gaines.
I don't know what to do either. So I sold half at 3.66
I really do think people will be jumping in next week looking for a bargain - but that is gut feeling.
Crap...I always buy at the wrong time. I bought 1000 @ 3.87 earlier. I'm not doing to hot right now. Any advice?
I really think next week NVAX will go up because everyone wants a bargain. I still have a large holding.
Quote from: LiveLife on October 28, 2005, 11:47:43 AM
Good morning!
Last night, I reviewed my list of stocks and did a lot of thinking. Since I am back in "full" swing trader mode, for short-term swing trading, I narrowed down my three choices to NVAX, HEB and SVA (stocks that experienced the most amount of loss recently for maximum rebound gains).
With still bearish market trends in the near future, I decided to convert to cash this morning while I waited for a good entry point.
As anticipated, the NVAX selloff continued from last two days. With NVAX having gone from $6 to $3.50, I decided that NVAX had the most to rebound for swing trade.
I bought 12,000 shares at $3.47 and will be setting my next sell target.
Good to be back in NVAX and Good trading! :D
good trading LiveLife, I have to applaud !
I have sold NVAX based on Davids analysis.
It hurts to see that my profit is just 37% instead of 110% :'( :-\ :-[
I have to redefine my trading rules 8)
I sold at 3.74 by Stop LMT all my NVAX today, with only 22% profit instead of 100% :(
Once more I lost a big profit - it became my tradition. It's one of my most stupid trades - in any case, 50% of profit I must take from the table... Hi traders, who knows, how to become a "Disciplined Trader" ???
I've learnt in this site "Diversification" - thanks a lot - it's a very good thing, but not enough for me. To catch right time for selling - it's a success key and my biggest problem.
So, I have to redesign my trading rules:
1. I'm going to set a different maximum loss for regular (10%) and for penny stocks (25%).
2. Forbidden to trade without Stop LMT or Trailing Stop (in case of wild and fast rally)
3. Minimum 50% of profit have to be taken if profit was more than 30% of initial position and stock is falling.
4. Forbidden to triple standard position.
All simple, nothing new, but how hard to stick to the rules ........ :-\
---------
I'll see to NVAX next week. Maybe I'll buy back at the support 3.25.
Good weekend for all :)
Quote from: kpunarc on October 28, 2005, 03:36:55 PM
Crap...I always buy at the wrong time. I bought 1000 @ 3.87 earlier. I'm not doing to hot right now. Any advice?
Don't worry..
3 days Bull, 3 days Bear pattern, today is the end of bear trend. Will go up from here.
Be patient.
Good luck.
Looks like NVAX is taking the "Worse" case scenario I had anticipated. I sold off all my NVAX position early this morning at $3.88 for a modest 70% gain after it dipped below my stop loss at $3.85. I was in since $2.28. I do not see any clear support for NVAX at this moment, so it will most likely fall some more. Now I will wait for NVAX to drop to around $3, where it should find some support from the T1 uptrend before thinking about entering again.
Longs, don't give up. Do your DD. NVAX is still a hot stock! My [2] Cents.
why sell today? i always see a good entry is when a stock retraces 50 %. So from 6 dollar that would be 3....so i am in 3.72. Fundamentals are great...Bird flu wil come...hottest topic the next months maybe years...be happy with everything around 3 and 4 dollar...huge profit follow. ;D
i missed the first run....now i sleep better just owning it....yeah..
Another reason investors of NVAX should have sold today is because it's not good to catch a falling knife and it was falling all day without making any sort of reversal. There needs to be good support with volume before re-entering... unless you want to speculate and gamble. :P
I feel better now that i know i'm not alone. What do you guys think of the market in general. I thought we were in a rally, however it's volatile trading sideways. I'm looking at the S&P and the graph now looks similar to the sell off in mid-april. Based upon this, you guys think we're at a market bottom and it's getting setup for a huge rally? How's the market going to effect NVAX?
10/29/05 - I updated the chart graphics/comments.
Quote from: LiveLife on October 28, 2005, 11:47:43 AM
Good morning!
Last night, I reviewed my list of stocks and did a lot of thinking. Since I am back in "full" swing trader mode, for short-term swing trading, I narrowed down my three choices to NVAX, HEB and SVA (stocks that experienced the most amount of loss recently for maximum rebound gains).
With still bearish market trends in the near future, I decided to convert to cash this morning while I waited for a good entry point.
As anticipated, the NVAX selloff continued from last two days. With NVAX having gone from $6 to $3.50, I decided that NVAX had the most to rebound for swing trade.
I bought 12,000 shares at $3.47 and will be setting my next sell target.
Good to be back in NVAX and Good trading! :D
I swing traded NVAX today. Sold as it gained towards $4 and bought back on dip at $3.62 (what a long dip!). As part of the three stocks I narrowed down last night, I bought 5000 shares of HEB this morning and sold this afternoon. So I guess, I really day traded today. Once again, I am "all in" with NVAX for Monday. ;)
What I learned also last night from Terlisa (Thanks! - this is what's go great about 3SOF community!) is that there was a duplicate RSI trend above 70 (Red Ovals) of last few days that corresponded with the selloff activity from end of August (Blue Ovals). After today's close, the trend looks awefully familiar, ;) and 50 MA is still heading above 200 MA.
Once again,Institutional/money manager buying accumulation continued today. Although the Lycos I-watch charts don't show, there was a block of shares sold executed early this morning. As we have discussed in Yahoo MB, we question the true accuracy of the I-watch reporting, so only use the charts as a general guide, not an exact report of true Institutional/money manger activity.
So, I approach Monday with a renewed optimism that this was an inevitable price correcting selloff and NVAX will resume its climb back up. According to the chart, there may be more downward correction before NVAX gains.
Of course, we'll see what happens next week.
Have a nice weekend everyone!
dont feel bad. I sold out at 3.5 then watched it go up to 5.5
Timing is everything and impossible to predict. My biggest fault is chasing stocks as they fall. EDNE is my most recent example. I used to buy the early morning dips then sell at EOD for a profit. Not a lot, but it was a profit. So as it continues to dive, i continue to buy. >:(
My cost average is 3 while it is sitting at 2.44
I as you also need to be more disciplined.
Novavax will be presenting for 1 hour at Rodman & Renshaw Techvest:
Event Details
Title Novavax at Rodman & Renshaw Techvest 7th Annual Healthcare Conference
Date and Time Monday, November 7, 2005 1:00 p.m. ET
Duration 1 Hour
Speakers Dr. Rahul Singhvi, PhD, President and CEO
Location The Palace Hotel
455 Madison Avenue
New York, NY
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29031#msg29031
NVAX still remains the week and month volume leader with the highest "Institutional ownership up last month." Interestingly, AVII (one of 3SOF portfolio stocks) is working its way up the list.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=Institutional+Ownership+Up+Last+Month&btnQryFrm=Go
Quote from GNBT board:
good trading livelife....that's right, let's return to NVAX @ 3.50
looking to buy back my shares after the 3 days selloff...this baby should rebound on monday & i think it will ;)
I'll try to post the chart this weekend but I noticed today that on the 3 month chart, we had a bounce off the 50% fib retracement. NVAX remains a bullish stock. ;D
Novavax is presenting at the World Vaccine Congress in Washingtion 20-23 March 2006:
17.50 Case study: potential pandemic flu vaccine Virus-Like-Particle (VLP)
• A new vaccine platform to address the urgent need for pandemic flu vaccine
• Results of pre-clinical studies with an influenza avian (pandemic) H9N2 candidate VLP vaccine
• Novasomes® – a safe, patented adjuvant to help address the need for antigen sparing
• Rapid, disposable, scalable manufacturing process to meet vaccine needs for pandemic flu
Dr Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, Novavax, Inc
On a separate note, just thought you might want to know: ;)
Novavax has a long history with receiving federal NIH grants. They had received $19 million in 2000 to create a vaccine for HIV Aids. Unfortunately it was canceled later after much research on VLP vaccines was completed (and paid for by a portion of the grant) . They continue work on HIV under a separate smaller grant. They have also received money to study SARS, and their VLP vaccine was presented to Homeland Security so that if U.S. needs to be innoculated for a Small Pox terrorist threat - the VLP vaccine is safer otherwise thousands could die because of the current active smallpox vaccines. They also work on vaccines for Hep E which is very common in Africa and India. Do a search for 'Novavax' on yahoo and you will be surprised at ALL the results of studies and grants.
I thought these reposts from Yahoo NVAX MB may be of interest to some:
10/28/05 NVAX MB
novavax shareholder (yes, that's his Yahoo profile ID!)
Yes, I do subscribe to the notion of sector diversification.
However, when I started to be "serious" this July, I was faced with the start of the "historical" bearish market of July-September.
I found myself diversified into 6-8 stock positions in "different" sectors, but due to the bearish market, my gains in one sector was negated by another sector. Bottomline? Little or no significant gain of my portfolio.
I mean, I already have a nice 401K with T. Rowe Price Mid Cap Growth that's been doing 14% - 24% along with my pension, so I decided (and was urged by several seasoned traders at 3SOF) to try "swing" trading for maximizing gains on a position.
What I found myself doing was holding my positions through the gain/profit taking cycle to not realize any net gains. I mean, if a stock goes up $2 (like NVAX did) and drops $2, did you realize any gains? NO!!! But if you sold at gain of $2 and bought back when it dropped, then you have actualized that $2 gain.
As to my 1-3 positions, I am not an long-term investor and do not subscribe to buy-and-hope or Cramer's buy-and-homework methods.
I buy on dip and sell on gains. That's my trade principle and it has worked for me the past several months through the "bearish" market time of the year.
Don't worry, my 401K fund is heavily diversified and my fund manager has done a great job the past 7 years. With my 401K, I move my money into stock fund (T. Rowe Price Mid Cap Growth) when the market is up and when the market is down, I move my money in to bond fund (like Vanguard GNMA fund) so I realize gains of 6-8% on "bearish" market and 14-24% on bullish market.
As to my swing trading, the $30K Scottrade account I have is my new hobby and not my "retirement" account.
Next week, I will be fully funding Roth IRA accounts for myself and my wife and for my brother. And yes, I will be swing trading with the Roth IRA funds to maximize "TAX FREE" growth.
retvet24,
Even when I sold NVAX, I stated that company has SOLID product lines, patents, licenses and $12.5 million partnership IN THE BANK!
NVAX, I believe is true long-term play.
I am not a long or an investor.
I am a short-term swing trader, so I must be objective and like David Randolph, be focused on the chart trends and to the trade plans.
I sold NVAX to cut my losses (I was going to hold cash) but saw GNBT gaining and thought traders were moving their gains to GNBT, so I bought, only to see GNBT lose later in the afternoon.
No one is perfect. I approach each trading day as my first day at work as an aggressive fund manager. This is how I start with people who email me as to the "poor" performing portfolio they have:
"Imagine you are a very successful stock trader who got a new promotion to fix some bad portfolios at your brokerage. You walk into your corner office and look at the folders on your desk and find "losing" stock positions. What would you do?"
Of course, initial buy point of those positions are irrelevant if the "current" performance of the stock positions are "losing" money. The "successful" trader will sell off all the stocks not "actively" gaining and replace them with stocks that are actively gaining or have immediate gain potential. This is what I do everyday. I look at my holdings to see what is making money and I sell the ones that are not, especially in a bear market.
As a swing trader, I even consolidate my positions into a hold and "really" watch this one egg in my basket. I look all the rise/fall of the stock closely and buy after profit taking dip and sell as the stock gains (as to not be too greedy) so that I don't chase a stock down as I am taking profit.
NVAX gave us some spectacular opportunies to take profits, but some of us, including me ($20,000 worth) did not. It is our mistake to not have done so, because we were too "euphoric" in the huge gain potential of NVAX.
Well, the last three days gave us a "reality wake up call" and last night, I decided to return to "full on" swing trading, really focusing on what has worked for me.
Today, a seemingly bearish day for many, there was a large dip and gain and dip again. I traded with the dip and gain and dip.
Yes, I am all in with NVAX again, because that is what I do, swing trade. Based on the chart trends, NVAX may have a little more to "price correct" before it resumes its climb up. I am not too concerned because of the significant volume/institutional/money managers holding NVAX. I have seen the price suppression of NVAX and why they are continuing to by NVAX. Why would any fund manager buy any stock that is trash??? They keep buying NVAX instead of other stocks because they know something or they see gain potential. I am "gambling" with the managers and it's my money, not anyone else's.
If I lose my shirt, it is mine. I stated in my posts many times, "If you are uncomfortable, you should cash out and wait for the bull market to return"
hectorquerra,
Yesterday changed everything for me.
I am no longer an "emotional investor"
I am back to being a swing trader. If I find a better stock with even better gain potential than NVAX, I'll sell NVAX again and buy that stock.
For now, and I'll be doing more research this weekend, I am holding NVAX through the weekend for the Monday's open.
For 10,000 share blocks, today's dip and gain of $0.20 - $0.30 translates to $2,000 - $3,000 gain.
bryanharris,
As Terlisa pointed out to me last night (which I overlooked during the "euphoria" of NVAX gains) that NVAX RSI trend was above 70 again like late August when there was a huge spike and sell off to pre-spike levels.
brandyjoco,
This is what my wife told me when I lost my $1,200 following "Mad Money" recommendations.
Review your trade log (You do have one do you?) and just do the "opposite of what you did to lose money, and you will make money in future" - Ha, so simple.
I saw stock go down after I bought, only to sell and see the stock go back up! oh my, have you all experienced this? Of course, we all have.
Review your trades and carefully "look" at a 3 month chart and see what you did wrong and ask yourself these questions:
- Were you too greedy?
- Were you emotional or objective?
- Can you justify to anyone why you bought the stock?
- Can you justify to the same person why you sold?
- What "makes" you buy any stock? Good objective chart trend/technicals/volume/fundamentals or "hunch"?
- Do you set specific entry/exit point?
- Do you immediately set a sell target of a stock?
- How much loss would you accept on a stock? If you don't do your chart trend/technicals/volume/fundamental, you won't know how long to take loss.
- Are you tracking your next group of stocks you should be buying after you sell? And why not? Unwilling or no time? Then maybe you should consider Mutual Funds...
- If you want to swing trade, you must be willing to commit the time and energy to research and learn the stock trends
- Have you learned the basics of stock trading? If not, 3StocksOnFire.org is an excellent site to do that
- Have you done "practice" trades (like with Yahoo portfolio) to ensure that you can time the stock movement according to chart trends and technical analysis? If not, set up a practice portfolio (it's free and practice, practice, and practice)
- Are you having fun trading? If not, ask yourself why not.
- Are you trading with funds that are "discretionary income?"
- If you don't know something, ask someone. There are many at 3SOF that will gladly answer your questions.
Well now its my term; another bad day with NVAX. I was very long going into NVAX this am but stopped out at 3.60 down 3.43 on half my position; reentered for a small profit from 3.53 to 3.65; so now I sit with 3/5 of my original position with no net gain. Have a funny feeling this may pop next week if some of the so-called expectednews announceents will help. However, if I am wrong I will get out completely and start all over again.
I have really traded badly the last two days; funny started out smart selling half in 5.50s but I was a total idiot to catch a falling knife buying more in the 4s from 4.02 to 4.98 the other day, not selling anything until the mid 3s as the pain just got to be intolerable. In the last 90 days I was up 37% on the investment portfolio but gave back almost 10% of that this week.
SVA was no better but I did not even see that coming so I decided to stand pat, and would have bought more if it traded above 5.56 which it did not after the fall. The drop was precipitous and was one large seller - amazing that it did not recover in a way but clearly I dont understand these stocks and should probably stay away. But I have a lot of NVAX and SVA still so I will be glued to the screen Monday am.
The only thinkg that worked well for me was my arql which popped about 8% and since I have a lot of that it cut my losses signifcantly.
Something was really wrong for me this week and I think a lot has to do with me playing pure momentum stocks when I don't have enough understanding about the fundamentals behind them - like NVAX and SVA.
I am still in HOM and in fact I bought more. Was actually going to by but more SVA if it traded over 5.57 which it did not - that was probably a good thing.
Oh well, I must say this all depressed me so I will need to get some rest and see what next week brings.
WOnder what David did - did he dump SVA and NVAX as they both are below his target exit points?
Hi ;) Reposts from Yahoo MB regarding NVAX action this week: (15th post from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29061#msg29061
Repost from Yahoo NVAX MB:
With previous post said, I believe we should approach Monday as though we just walked on to the stock market (with FRESH and OBJECTIVE perspectives).
As confirmed by Bloomberg report below, after today's rally, market is poised to go bullish after last three months of "bearish" market trends.
If we don't have an objective fresh look at the market, we may not do what we need to do.
Bloomberg just reported these:
- We are just coming out of the historical annual "bear market" that runs from late July-September.
- Historically during this time, market loses about 10% of value...Nasdaq lost 9%, confirming the annual trend.
- Historically, November through January has shown to be bullish following the these bearish months.
- There are good GDP numbers showing that economy is improving as we move into the holiday seasons.
- Market rally of Friday despite poor earnings by companies like Microsoft expresses that market maybe ready for a bullish return
nice retracement on nvax today , to the 50 % fib ;D
good swing trade this week :o
Repost from Yahoo NVAX MB:
This is a follow up post to the Bloomberg - Return of bull market post.
With the forecast of the Bull market return for Nov-Jan, many who cashed out of the bearish market will start to return on Monday and buy in.
This new wave of buyers will increase demand for many popular stocks, including NVAX.
So, I would recommend that we keep this in mind, despite the $6 to $3.59 we recently experienced with NVAX.
New buyers will see the pullback as a "BUYING OPPORTUNITY" and jump in.
Of course, time will tell, but the bullish market report will be continued by the media all weekend.
Good trading!
About >75 Million shares were approx. traded above the current closing quto.
NVAX is behaving like ISON in good ol' days.
If David intends to hold his shares I will be buying on Monday morning at whatever the quote is.
Repost from Yahoo NVAX MB:
affilphbs888:
I agree. There are different indicators that might lead to such a conclusion and I think 2006 will be better than expected.
Factor prices will not be able to stop significant GDP growth while the factor prices topped and are rather on the decline.
affilphbs888,
And all the "cautious" investors who cashed out will now return looking for the "next thing" ... That's AVIAN PLAYS (bio-tech, micro/nano-pharma, and Avian related plays such as bio-filter manufacturers)!
And NVAX is the current volume and Institutional gain leader for the week and month!!!
Who do you think they will go after?
$40 Pharma with no growth or $3.50 Novavax with huge growth potential who is actively seeking partnership/merger???
Think about it.
Bloomberg just reported these:
- We are just coming out of the historical annual "bear market" that runs from late July-September.
- Historically during this time, market loses about 10% of value...Nasdaq lost 9%, confirming the annual trend.
- Historically, November through January has shown to be bullish following the these bearish months.
- There are good GDP numbers showing that economy is improving as we move into the holiday seasons.
- Market rally of Friday despite poor earnings by companies like Microsoft expresses that market maybe ready for a bullish return
With the forecast of the Bull market return for Nov-Jan, many who cashed out of the bearish market will start to return on Monday and buy in.
This new wave of buyers will increase demand for many popular stocks, including NVAX.
So, I would recommend that we keep this in mind, despite the $6 to $3.59 we recently experienced with NVAX.
New buyers will see the pullback as a "BUYING OPPORTUNITY" and jump in.
Of course, time will tell, but the bullish market report will be continued by the media all weekend.
Good trading!
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.195
Repost from Yahoo MB:
Bloomberg just reported these:
- We are just coming out of the historical annual "bear market" that runs from late July-September.
- Historically during this time, market loses about 10% of value...Nasdaq lost 9%, confirming the annual trend.
- Historically, November through January has shown to be bullish following the these bearish months.
- There are good GDP numbers showing that economy is improving as we move into the holiday seasons.
- Market rally of Friday despite poor earnings by companies like Microsoft expresses that market maybe ready for a bullish return
With the forecast of the Bull market return for Nov-Jan, many who cashed out of the bearish market will start to return on Monday and buy in.
This new wave of buyers will increase demand for many popular stocks, including NVAX.
So, I would recommend that we keep this in mind, despite the $6 to $3.59 we recently experienced with NVAX.
New buyers will see the pullback as a "BUYING OPPORTUNITY" and jump in.
Of course, time will tell, but the bullish market report will be continued by the media all weekend.
Good trading!
affilphbs888,
I'll be watching the media coverage of "BULL MARKET RETURN" all this week and report back here.
May be that's why the Inst/Money Managers bought today too and all last week?
Now, that makes sense...they were beating everyone to the punch! WOW
Mornin LIVELIFE, Thank you for all of your posts, i can not even keep up with them all at yahoo but you seem to summarize most here. I really like Msg: 46613 at NVAX, provides some inspiration. I let exuberance get the better of me with NVAX after being up well for the week i jumped in again in the high fives and am now a bag holder... i did average down and bought a few more in the low 4's and mid 3s... will see how long i decide to carry the bag. Any pointers on chart reading with regards to picking entry points and when a run is running out of gas? TA book you and your dad recommend? I am enjoying the learning, yet this week ONE dumb buy is schooling me!! Thoughts on HOM and ZENX for next week. Do you trust the icharts page... still seems to make the institutions more impressive than the # of purchases really is. Thanx fr all of your posts. I hope to hear from you on this board, as i would lose it on the yahoo board. If you prefer send to
[email protected] cheers your Alaska newbie :)
Thanks joet, this repost from Yahoo MB may help:
Thank you bloodfromastein,
I do believe future prospect looks bullish for NVAX, however, according to the chart trend and technical analysis, this second "spike" price correction may see some more downward adjustments on Monday before NVAX resumes its climb back upwards.
Of course, this could change if Bloomberg's "bullish return of the stock market" report and repeated coverage by the media over the weekend drive those that cahed out during the the past three months of "bearish" market to jump back in the market, buying discounted stocks, one of many being NVAX ($6 - $3.50).
Many will see the two spikes of gains with corresponding RSI trends above 70 (RSI is now down to almost 50! - Thanks Terlisa for this info!!!) and see the drop in price as "natural" price correction and expect NVAX to resume its climb back up.
If this is not the case wrong, then NVAX may experience some more "small" loss. If this is the case, then there will be more significant gain activity next week.
As I always say, do your own research (DD - due diligence) on the stock and let time be the judge.
If you are not "comfortable" you can hold cash and wait for confirmation of this and buy in when you see the upward trend return.
Above mentioned chart with RSI here (11th post from top):
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.180
Good trading!
Thanks bestxcskier for the Yahoo MB post!
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2005/s1493642.htm
Saturday, 29 October , 2005The United Nations top expert on bird flu says the fatal virus will hit Africa within weeks, and it could be the most dangerous development yet in the spread of the fatal disease.
Dr Joseph Domenech from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation is warning that Africa might not be able to contain the outbreak quickly, which could create a greater chance for the virus to jump from birds to humans.
Thanks john lee 20032003 for the post on Yahoo MB:
Here is a chronology of bird flu developments:
Dec 15, 2003 - South Korea confirms a highly contagious type of bird flu at a chicken farm near Seoul and begins a mass cull of poultry when the virus rapidly spreads across the country.
Jan 8, 2004 - Vietnam says bird flu found on poultry farms.
March 16 - China declares it has stamped out bird flu.
Sept 27 - Thailand says it has found a case where one human probably infected another with bird flu. It says this is an isolated incident posing little risk to the population.
Oct 8, 2005 - Turkey reports first cases of bird flu, raising concern on Europe's doorstep. It is later confirmed as the type dangerous to humans, the H5N1 strain.
Oct 10 - The European Commission announces a ban on imports of live birds and feathers from Turkey to the 25-nation EU.
Oct 15 - British tests identify H5N1 in three ducks found dead in Ceamurlia de Jos in Romania, the first incidence in mainland Europe of H5N1.
Oct 17 - Greece says H5 bird flu -- which can range from a mild form to H5N1 -- has been detected on the Aegean island Chios, the first such case in an EU member state.
Oct 21 - Hungary says a vaccine against the deadly strain of bird flu has proven effective. Scientists also detect the H5 avian flu virus in wild swans found dead in eastern Croatia.
Oct 23 - Britain says that a parrot that died in quarantine in Britain has been found to have the deadly H5N1 strain.
Oct 25 - Indonesia reports the death of a man from bird flu which, according to the World Health Organization, brings the human death toll throughout Asia to 62, comprising 41 in Vietnam, 13 in Thailand, four in Indonesia and four in Cambodia.
Oct 29 - Director of hospital in Vietnam says two people showing symptoms of the bird flu virus have die. A third person is being treated in a hospital.
Excellent post/links proftphile on Yahoo MB:
This is a comprehensive article, and so far the most candid. http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1591358,00.html
The Bird Flu's development, current status, current effects and path towards human-to-human recombinomic (viral evoltuion) is seemlessly and articulately related.
The bottom line is:
any responsible, viable, and comprehensive Anti-Flu effort can not afford to take any chances as the Thailand, Vietnam and China virus clusters are now stage 5, stage 6 is pandemic, everywhere at once. Anti-viral efforts must explore every possible method or risk disaster if the one or few they chose prove unreliable or outright fail.
NVAX has the shortest lead time from anti-viral identification to mass production--in Investor Bank Webcast--http://www.novavax.com/index.html
Caveat: This article's frankness, and accuracy will upset shorts and longs alike. Grim Picture.
Good post thesavvymonkey on Yahoo MB:
...what is going to happen to NVAX and to all of the other stocks that are involved with the avian flu virus "when" it shows up for the first time in the USA?
It's not "if" any more... It's "when"... Unless we come up with a plan to stop all birds from migrating around the world, it's safe to say that we are eventually going to have to deal with it, just like a lot of areas in the world are dealing with it today.
There are plenty of stocks that are great to trade right now. This definitely isn't one of them, and this is especially true at $3.59/share... Buy it and hold it. Period.
Thanks retvet24 for response to my earlier post regading "trading" basics on Yahoo MB:
Recommended your post...
Like you, I am an "investor" sick and tired of losing money watching decent stocks lie around in a "trading range" or sliding slowly into oblivion. Also like you, I was in the market almost ten years ago, and was playing semi-educated guesses as to which stocks to be in...fortunately, I was right 1/3 of the time and had the accumen to dump dogs, get in on the run, then cash out at or near the top.
I picked NVAX ( and INSM) out of about 200 stocks I screened. I do not throw money at "bad ideas" or "losers"...I'm not here to maintain the status quo...I'm here to change it.
The recent activity in this stock has been part of my continuing "education" this time around. And thanks to you and a few select others on this board, (with some GREAT links and info) I have come farther in my approach and experience with markets in the past month or so than I have in the rest of my investing life, total....period. The $6.02 post was a "dig", yes...but with a wink and nod.
I was too busy trying to organize several ports to trade with to actually pay attention to the trade itself. Rest assured, that will not happen again...
Regards, vet24
Thanks and I agree retvet24 with your comments!
We need to take what happened last week as a valuable lesson and learn and grow from it and evolve into smarter and more effective stock traders that we are.
Aren't we all in this to trade better and make money?
If not, why are you stock trading?
So, invest the time and energy to study and learn. Thanks tor David Randolph and Frederick Ramsburg, 3StocksOnFire.org is such a public "community" forum that we can all learn from.
That's why I appreciate what they have done and continue to be a supporter of the site. They are one of "few" great stock trading sites around.
Thanks roksteady33 for your response on Yahoo MB:
great posts! your outlook and perspective on the general market is refreshingly intelligent and I concur completely. I have seen this recent bullish action too many times!!! I accumulated a decent-sized position in NVAX thruout this past week...and am confident the "party" is far from over!
Good luck to you and please...keep up your productive and insightful posts!
Nice counterpoint post hyn1232003 on Yahoo MB:
"and you will lose money if you buy them now. Just wait until it is stable. And there is a plenty chance to make some profits from this if you are patient. Monday it will be $3 or under for sure according to my chart."
Yes hny1232003,
I posted earlier that according to chart trend that more downward trend price correction is anticipated for Monday, unless greater BUY demand drive the trend upwards.
I posted the Bloomberg reporting because such news coverage all this weekend will bring buyers back in from the sidelines, looking for discounted stocks, and NVAX will look very appealing those that want in on the Avian plays at only $3.59.
If demand increases greatly on Monday for NVAX, like David Randolph said, chart trend and technical analysis will no longer apply short-term to NVAX movement patterns.
As always, time is the best judge. We'll all be watching on Monday as to what happens to the market and NVAX. Keep in mind that we had a rally on Friday and NVAX went down. There will be a delay recovery and I am willing to sacrifice a small downward adjustment to be in for the move upwards, which may "spike" and that's why I an back"all in" with NVAX.
Thanks roksteady33 for the post on Yahoo MB:
don't know what chart you are looking at...but mine says after three days of heavy selling this is due for a good bounce on technicals alone...let alone another avian scare story!!
has come back to its' 50day...this WILL bounce hard come monday...and i am looking for a new high sometime next week with lots of new money coming into this re-energized bull market!!!
Thanks vailant457 and retvet24 for the posts on Yahoo MB:
"Someone can answer to this question ??
I asked me if it can easily go up...so what do you think ?
6 dollars ??? more... or down ?
I don't know what to do ... "
retvet24's response:
As for your question, we are correcting and rebasing following a MAJOR squeeze play by the shorts and big $$$, with MM's tacit approval (if not outright manipulation).
Stocks go up, stocks go down...this one in particular has so much upside potential that it is impossible to ignore at $3.50. If you wait, you could miss the boat, if you get in, and the correction continues (I think it's 90-95% done with) you're in cheap...
Fasten your seat belt, this is an "E" ticket ride!!!
Anyone who wants to sit back and "watch it grow" consistently should be in CD's...and I don't mean the plastic ones...
Nothing but good news from here on out for this company, regardless of the bird flu outcome, this stock is still a good one. For anyone that actually wants to check it out...
http://www.novavax.com
Thanks matthew_minogue2000 for the post on Yahoo MB:
"My feeling is that not only was it on the short list but some micro cap fund sold there position on Thursday to close out the book for October. That happens. If you are an institution investor you would like the weak hands out of this stock. With all the volume in the last 2 days I figure that has happened. That is my take anyway. We will be in the 4's by Monday and no later than Tuesday. Thats my take."
matthew minogue2000,
Yes, and Bloomberg report did mentioned that, Monday is last "trading" left the October before the start of Nov 1, and you could be right.
I can't stand baseless predictions like those found on Yahoo and elsewhere. >:( "This stock is ready to double!" or "Buy now or miss the boat!" or "Fasten your seat belt, this is an E ticket ride!". Bah, what a bunch of pendejas!
That said, I believe the poster is correct, but because of the chart. ;D The stock is still in bullish territory. As lifelife mentioned, NVAX came back and bounced off it's 20dma but also it's 50% fib retracement level AND it's TL2 trendline. A close below any of these on Monday could signify a trend revearsal but bouncing off 3 intersecting support points is a very good sign that a rebound is to come. I'm not crazy about the 3 black crows candle formation but if that is to be a trend reversal, it will have to be confirmed on Monday. It is looking like Monday will be the deciding day on NVAX. Either the support levels will hold and it will stay in bull mode or the candle formation will be confirmed and a bearish trend will be established.
LOL, basonista, thanks for your post and chart! :D
I know, some at Yahoo MB do get "carried" away at times, but I do agree with you that retvet24's may be correct. We'll know if that's the case next week.
Since there has been so many new posts, let me repost my Friday's "recap" post here:
Yes, NVAX continues to be the week and month volume leader with highgest "Institutional ownership up last month."
Quote from: LiveLife on October 28, 2005, 11:47:43 AM
Good morning!
Last night, I reviewed my list of stocks and did a lot of thinking. Since I am back in "full" swing trader mode, for short-term swing trading, I narrowed down my three choices to NVAX, HEB and SVA (stocks that experienced the most amount of loss recently for maximum rebound gains).
With still bearish market trends in the near future, I decided to convert to cash this morning while I waited for a good entry point.
As anticipated, the NVAX selloff continued from last two days. With NVAX having gone from $6 to $3.50, I decided that NVAX had the most to rebound for swing trade.
I bought 12,000 shares at $3.47 and will be setting my next sell target.
Good to be back in NVAX and Good trading! :D
I swing traded NVAX today. Sold as it gained towards $4 and bought back on dip at $3.62 (what a long dip!). As part of the three stocks I narrowed down last night, I bought 5000 shares of HEB this morning and sold this afternoon. So I guess, I really day traded today. Once again, I am "all in" with NVAX for Monday. ;)
What I learned also last night from Terlisa (Thanks! - this is what's go great about 3SOF community!) is that there was a duplicate RSI trend above 70 (Red Ovals) of last few days that corresponded with the selloff activity from end of August (Blue Ovals). After today's close, the trend looks awefully familiar, ;) and 50 MA is still heading above 200 MA.
Once again,Institutional/money manager buying accumulation continued today. Although the Lycos I-watch charts don't show, there was a block of shares sold executed early this morning. As we have discussed in Yahoo MB, we question the true accuracy of the I-watch reporting, so only use the charts as a general guide, not an exact report of true Institutional/money manger activity.
So, I approach Monday with a renewed optimism that this was an inevitable price correcting selloff and NVAX will resume its climb back up. According to the chart, there may be more downward correction before NVAX gains. Of course, we'll see what happens next week. Have a nice weekend everyone!
Here is a simple TA analysis of when to buy and sell NVAX. I donnot think we are (I am not) an investor, or else I wouldn't care to much about the price fluctuations. I am a position trader and I care about price entries and exits. I think on SVA and NVAX a lot of people bought near the top of the second wave. I for one made that mistake on SVA and got hammered yesterday and took a 20% loss. I never want to do that, it breaks my trading plan, but I fell in love with the story(worst mistake for a trader). I forgot to go with the trend. Now that I have gotten over the loss. It's time to work on getting back into these bird flu stocks at the right entry, so to maximize our gains, or else why are we all here? We must all learn from this experience or we have walked away with nothing and have not helped ourselves become better at this craft. I donot like taking one loss if I can help it.
In the chart I am posting, if you follow the Fast and slow stoch. You can almost pick 100% when the stock is making its big move up and when it's reached top. It almost looks to simple but it works. It looks like NVAX may have a little more drop before she will go back up. Let's all maximize our porfits on the next run.
Repost from Yahoo MB:
Novavax's recent gains are primarily due to their existing and 2 soon to be released products (in 1 week!!! Probably update mention on Nov 7th conference)
Novavax is a SOLID company with CURRENT products:
- Estrasorb, FDA approved nano-particle technology estrogen therapy product that already has "clinical" approval
- Estrasorb has $12.5 million in the BANK! $2 million down payment and $10 million by end of December
- Novavax has patent licenses good til 2015!!!
- Novavax is "actively" seeking government/corporate partnership/merger!!!'
- Novavax is actively "licensing" their products and nano-particle technology to other companies (more annuouncement due out soon)'
AND
- Novavax has Avian vaccine solution. "Full solution" as stated by CEO that is "Best in class"!!!
Novavax will only benefit from Avian related issues in the weeks/months to come.
Repost from Yahoo MB:
new york new york 2003,
Novavax's new management team is very well qualified and credentialed with many years of experience from MIT, Merck, Eli Lily along with host of patents held by the CEO.
With $2 million in the bank with $10 million by end of December, they will certainly not let the Avian opportunity by when they have a "full solution" that is "best in class" with "state of the art production facility" - Recombinant DNA process for rapid customization to emerging strains, 2 month low cost-high yield insect cell-culture process they already have, and adjuvant Novasomes to enhance the immunogenic response to "human" vaccine to develop a single dose vaccine instead of two dose vaccine currently being used (30 day second dose).
Novavax will not sit idle. Just look at the CEO doing all the presentations these last few weeks. It is matter of time before he lands a government/corporate partnership/merger.
Why do you think there has been month long "highest Institutional ownership gain" and continued accmulation of the Institutional/money managers along with insider buying?
Time will be the best judge what happens to Novavax in the coming year!
Thanks sthd836 for the post on Yahoo MB:
This is in regards to th note conversion:
"Good idea. These kind of events investors like, they should see that. I think they know a lot more than we do and it is good....... The bond holder would not CONVERT at 5.68 unless something was in the pipeline. You see that had to be negoaigaeted up front."
Repost from Yahoo MB:
brocade 2003,
Then their shares will be bought by new buyers coming into the market from the "bear market" sidelines.
Nov-Jan has been historically bullish following the Jul-Sep historically bearish market.
Those that cashed out the last few months will be buying stocks on recent "discount" and will be buying the volume/gain/institutional gain leaders, which BTW NVAX is.
Time will tell what will happen to NVAX next week!
Good trading!
More...
josh40 ca 2000,
We don't all pump on this MB nor 3SOF. We try to share information (chart trends/TA/etc.) to help uninformed buyers of NVAX.
I stated on previous posts this morning that according to chart trends, there probably downward trend before resuming the climb, unless new buyers push the demand up next week due to Bloomber's "return of bullish market" reports and by other media.
You make money by being ahead of the pack.
I bought NVAX at $2.02 and sold at $4.50 - $4.30. I bought back at $3.47 and sold towards $4 yesterday and bought back $3.62.
I know that NVAX retraces down towards $3, but that's the risk I am taking to be "ahead" and if/when NVAX does rebound to $4, I will be smiling, and so will many others that bought back mid-$3.
Good trading!
Thanks matthew minogue2000 for the Yahoo MB post:
If you listened to the conference presentation, you would have found out the following:
The company believes that they have the potential for best in class on the Avian Flu vaccine. Adding the Novasomes to the vaccine creates a higher imune response. The novasomes are patented. Why is this good because there is no reason for a second shot.
No egg process which means NVAX can make it faster. The deal with Wave means they can make a lot of it quicker and cheaper. They are actively seeking a partner so what does that tell you? Mentioned the convertible bonds and the next day news comes out on that.
Of course there has to be fallout from the whole King Pharma. fiasco and the company is in the midst of repairing itself. The first thing I would do is clean up the balance sheet which is what they are doing. There is no doubt in my mind that they will get a partnership. I honestly feel that Novartis would be a nice fit and they can tell Chiron to go shove it. If this company has the goods which I believe they do they will get a deal. Since August the management has done a remarkable job. Estrasorb deal, The pharmelle deal and fixing the balance sheet. That is why the stock has gone up and will keep going up. Does anyone realise what this company is doing? Vaccines can be made close to real time like a lot of other industries. To me that is a big deal. Thats my take anyway. Feedback?
Quote from: gri64 on October 28, 2005, 04:54:10 PM
So, I have to redesign my trading rules:
1. I'm going to set a different maximum loss for regular (10%) and for penny stocks (25%).
2. Forbidden to trade without Stop LMT or Trailing Stop (in case of wild and fast rally)
3. Minimum 50% of profit have to be taken if profit was more than 30% of initial position and stock is falling.
4. Forbidden to triple standard position.
Rule 3 is a bit ambiguous: "stock is falling." You've got to define what constitutes the stock falling.
Quote from: LiveLife on October 29, 2005, 10:39:22 AM
LOL, basonista, thanks for your post and chart! :D
I know, some at Yahoo MB do get "carried" away at times, but I do agree with you that retvet24's may be correct. We'll know if that's the case next week.
Since there has been so many new posts, let me repost my Friday's "recap" post here:
Yes, NVAX continues to be the week and month volume leader with highgest "Institutional ownership up last month."
Quote from: LiveLife on October 28, 2005, 11:47:43 AM
Good morning!
Last night, I reviewed my list of stocks and did a lot of thinking. Since I am back in "full" swing trader mode, for short-term swing trading, I narrowed down my three choices to NVAX, HEB and SVA (stocks that experienced the most amount of loss recently for maximum rebound gains).
With still bearish market trends in the near future, I decided to convert to cash this morning while I waited for a good entry point.
As anticipated, the NVAX selloff continued from last two days. With NVAX having gone from $6 to $3.50, I decided that NVAX had the most to rebound for swing trade.
I bought 12,000 shares at $3.47 and will be setting my next sell target.
Good to be back in NVAX and Good trading! :D
I swing traded NVAX today. Sold as it gained towards $4 and bought back on dip at $3.62 (what a long dip!). As part of the three stocks I narrowed down last night, I bought 5000 shares of HEB this morning and sold this afternoon. So I guess, I really day traded today. Once again, I am "all in" with NVAX for Monday. ;)
What I learned also last night from Terlisa (Thanks! - this is what's go great about 3SOF community!) is that there was a duplicate RSI trend above 70 (Red Ovals) of last few days that corresponded with the selloff activity from end of August (Blue Ovals). After today's close, the trend looks awefully familiar, ;) and 50 MA is still heading above 200 MA.
Once again,Institutional/money manager buying accumulation continued today. Although the Lycos I-watch charts don't show, there was a block of shares sold executed early this morning. As we have discussed in Yahoo MB, we question the true accuracy of the I-watch reporting, so only use the charts as a general guide, not an exact report of true Institutional/money manger activity.
So, I approach Monday with a renewed optimism that this was an inevitable price correcting selloff and NVAX will resume its climb back up. According to the chart, there may be more downward correction before NVAX gains. Of course, we'll see what happens next week. Have a nice weekend everyone!
good job .thx!
Unfortunately I can not read charts that is why I joined this service. I was hoping to glean information on the stocks that were recommended on this board. Is there a way that we would have know in advance that NVAX would drop?
I notice that the RSI was above 70..? I don't understand all of that but is this something we would be on top of in the future? I felt really lost on this one and I couldn't find anyone else here posting that day that the drop began. I guess next time I shouldn't be so greedy....
Still don't know what to do so I guess I just sit and wait with my holdings.
Quote from: brandyjoco on October 29, 2005, 11:53:01 PM
Unfortunately I can not read charts that is why I joined this service. I was hoping to glean information on the stocks that were recommended on this board. Is there a way that we would have know in advance that NVAX would drop?
I notice that the RSI was above 70..? I don't understand all of that but is this something we would be on top of in the future? I felt really lost on this one and I couldn't find anyone else here posting that day that the drop began. I guess next time I shouldn't be so greedy....
Still don't know what to do so I guess I just sit and wait with my holdings.
I'm still new to chart reading also, but what's helping me is www.stockta.com with technical analysis. Chart reading i use www.bigcharts.com and www.stockcharts.com. For definition of terms, i use www.investopedia.com. Anyways, it's what i use. Not sure how good they are, but it's helping me so far. enjoy!
Brandyjoco,
You can find out the definition of trading jargon here http://www.investopedia.com and they offer a very good easy to read explanation too.
"The RSI ranges from 0 to 100, but a stock is considered overbought if it reaches the 70 level, meaning that you should consider selling. When it is a true bull market, an RSI of 80 might be a better level since stocks often trade at higher valuations. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is a strong buying indicator (20 in a strong bear market)."
No one can tell if the stock is going to go up or down 100% of the time but through technical analysis they can watch out, spot green and red flags for most of the time. In term of chart reading, I am in the same boat as you are. Perhaps one of the pros here can enlighten us. Is there a thread for "stock lessons"?
Also, try the Technical Analysis MB. They got topics on there related to help you with TA. Try asking all the questions you like on there. It's relatively new, but should help. Good Luck
Thanks bestxcskier for the post from Yahoo MB:
Mutual funds begin their new fiscal year on November 1st.
That is when all of the new 401K and pension money begins to flow into the market. That is also why the market has a bull run, from November to March, consistantly.
Where do you think a lot of funds are going to be placing some of those $ billions?
That is right. NVAX A good place to be.
Thanks retvet24 for the post from Yahoo MB:
Hardly thinking of getting out!! The people that "lose" in situations like this are the "late ride" buyers and Panic sellers. Too late in the game, then too quick to pull the plug...they need to do a 180 with their thinking.
Thanks brandyjoco for the post from Yahoo MB:
I think NVAX is down because many of us (me included) jumped in because of the momentum without truly doing our homework. Now that many of us are holding and looking into the company's potential it is very eyeopening. If you go to Yahoo and search for 'Novavax' there are dozens of news articles about past grants from NIH and achievements. Their success is long overdue...
Post by mojobenard:
A little research into the company..
They are already recieving funding from Government.
They will be receiving some of the funding for H5N1 - Book it
Government Funded
HIV/aids VLP vaccine
Stage Non-Human Primate
Pandemic flu VLP vaccine
E-selectin to prevent secondary stroke
Stage Small Animal
Melanoma Vaccine
Stage Phase 1
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Stage Discovery
Partnered or Internally Funded
Trivalent flu VLP vaccine
Stage Discovery
Hepatitis E Virus Vaccine
Stage Phase 3
brandyjoco's response:
Yes, I agree that they will definately get some NIH funding because they already have the relationships established from previous grants. The VLP research was essentially paid for by millions of dollars in NIH research grants and is an asset that I believe will be continued to be supported.
This is probably why the bondholders were willing to take shares at almost $6 a share as they already know there will be additional funding.
Thanks retvet24 for the post from Yahoo MB:
In the "short against the box" scenario, the bondholder has three options, four if you count holding the bond, which this obviously is not about.
1) hold the shares expecting appreciation to exceed bond income.
2) sell the converted shares immediately, assuming they are above bond value.
3) sell into profit taking to begin a run and correction, or to aid it while shorting shares they HAVE NOT converted yet, knowing they have more bonds to cover the call.
They draw the interest on the "shorted" bonds WHILE the stock tanks and cover only after the SEC gets excited (SHO list-these are true "naked" shorts)AND make a killing on the short sale at the same time....
Then they convert more bonds to shares to cover, the stock eventually comes off the SHO list, and they are ready to REPEAT the process.
Did this scenario happen last week? We will never know. I only know it works in theory, and probably in practice (legal or not) but I have now seen the exact same game twice in two different stocks...
Remember that next time NVAX shows up on the list accompanied by a convertible bond transfer...
Counter-argument from gunboat1919:
An entity invested in bonds paying an interest rate of I believe %4.75. The holders chose to convert the bonds into stock. This convert is good for the cash situation because it eliminates an interest payment of $285,000.
6 Million dollars in bonds was converted in to 1,056,338 shares of NVAX.
IMO how they arrived @5.68 is irrelevant to me.
Imagine you are the bond holder with 6 million at risk earning %4.75 annually. You convert your investment into stock. What do you do, why did you convert? Do sell all or some?
IMO if more bond holders convert this will dilute and force the price downward.
Again, collars are now in place affecting the price per share IMO.
If my math is correct there were 42,493,662 shares outstanding. After the convert there are now 43,550,000 shares out standing. Meaning your share is 2.48% less of the pie than it was prior to the convert.
Good luck.
Counter-argument from duker217:
I don't buy the dilution argument. A little over one million shares at 5.68 is nothing compared to the MONSTER volume NVAX has been turning lately. Someone made a good point earlier. Perhaps the bond holders simply shorted NVAX at or above the strike and converted to close their position. With interest rates up, the 4.75% isn't as good today as it was last year. It was an easy out and I think these bondholders took it. I believe this benefits NVAX tremendously. Less interest expense, lower nut to pay when the remaining bonds mature and all this for 1 million more shares in the float??? I'll take that any day. The selloff last week was not unusual. Let's not forget this is a highly specultive situation. That's what makes it so compelling howerer. If it's going to go ... it's going to go big!!! Or to say it another way the risk reward in owning NVAX is probably 5 : 1 or more. Find me that somewhere else in this bulls**t market. I'm long and content. I believe good things are going to happen soon. It won't take much.
Thanks brandyjoco for the post from Yahoo MB:
Novavax is presenting at the World Vaccine Congress in Washingtion 20-23 March 2006:
17.50 Case study: potential pandemic flu vaccine Virus-Like-Particle (VLP)
• A new vaccine platform to address the urgent need for pandemic flu vaccine
• Results of pre-clinical studies with an influenza avian (pandemic) H9N2 candidate VLP vaccine
• Novasomes® – a safe, patented adjuvant to help address the need for antigen sparing
• Rapid, disposable, scalable manufacturing process to meet vaccine needs for pandemic flu
Dr Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, Novavax, Inc
On a separate note, just thought you might want to know:
Novavax has a long history with receiving federal NIH grants. They had received $19 million in 2000 to create a vaccine for HIV Aids. Unfortunately it was canceled later after much research on VLP vaccines was completed (and paid for by a portion of the grant) . They continue work on HIV under a separate smaller grant. They have also received money to study SARS, and their VLP vaccine was presented to Homeland Security so that if U.S. needs to be innoculated for a Small Pox terrorist threat - the VLP vaccine is safer otherwise thousands could die because of the current active smallpox vaccines. They also work on vaccines for Hep E which is very common in Africa and India. Do a search for 'Novavax' on yahoo and you will be surprised at ALL the results of studies and grants.
Thanks whpkc for the post from Yahoo MB:
NVAX:
RSI divergences
Above 20% Below 70% 40.36% Rising
So far three peaks and counting on this
rising trend.
.........................................
Aroon & Aroon Oscillator:
Aroon Oscillator signal upward trend is underway when it is above zero
NVAX: 92Up 16Down
...........................
NVAX: ZigZag retracements look good.
IMHO
Anyone else see anything?
-KCBP
Here is a great assessment of the current frenzy of Avian plays. Thanks hoang2004hon for the link!
As the bold highlighted paragraphs indicates and cautions, I am "speculating" in NVAX short-term. If this sense of "speculation" causes NVAX stock price to go up, I will ride the gain and cash out. I am in NVAX to trade, not buy-and-hope.
http://www.antandsons.com/traderscorner/birdflustocks/
"... Because of the strain's ability to be resistant, it is extremely tough to develop a viable vaccine.
Evaluating the current situation as of late shows that there is documented evidence of being insufficiently prepared for an avian flu outbreak. This is due in part to the United States' inability to mobilize an effort stockpile and develop vaccines more quickly. As this has become a viable threat, politicians and even President Bush have gotten into the act by stating their desires to initiate an effort to stockpile and develop vaccines just in case the country's fears are met. With an increased public awareness of avian flu, as well as increased media visibility, this has posed as an opportunity for many publicly traded companies to jump on the promotion bandwagon.
For example, smaller, lesser known companies such as Acacia Research Corporation (Nasdaq: ACTG) and CombiMatrix (Nasdaq: CBMX) have come into the foray by launching a new comprehensive influenza DNA microarray as well as services for the typing of influenza strains. CombiMatrix's Influenza Microarray can detect and accurately type flu strains using a protocol that requires less than four hours start to finish. While this may demonstrate potential, the marketability and actual generation of revenue remains to be seen at this point.
Another instance of this is Generex Biotechnology Corporation (Nasdaq: GNBT), that partnered with the executives of Antigen Express, Inc. to present a proposal to senators to seek support for the accelerated development of its novel vaccine for H5N1 avian influenza. As of right now, there is no indication whatsoever to really determine if the meting would benefit the company in anyway. The company that seems to be leading this group of avian flu plays, however, is Novavax Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX). Its shares have moved higher based on an agreement with Wave Biotech, LLC to collaborate on the development of a commercial scale production process for Novavax's pandemic avian flu vaccine.
Although the World Health Organization believes that current avian flu situation is in phase three of classifying it as a pandemic, there has been limited evidence of continued human-to-human transmission. When taking this into account, it is careful to note that even if these special products and vaccines for flu do prove to be successful, it might not necessarily translate into major revenue generators for these companies to become viable entities. Just as an increase in demand and worries about global refining capacity drew heightened speculation in the oil market, increased fears and attention of avian flu has drawn intense speculation in certain biotechnology stocks. Coming to this realization will help investors determine that these companies may just turn out to be another investment of a highly speculative nature."
The above article intrigued me. I thought about the "speculative" aspects of the Avian plays and decided to a "little" test. I pulled the Lycos-Iwatch charts for the above mentioned stock symbols and came up with the following charts below.
Of the mentioned stock symbols in the article, NVAX showed the largest Institutional/money manager buy activity.
Why would Institutional/Money Managers sell the other Avian stocks if they anticipate gain potential of the stocks from the Avian flu???
And why did they buy NVAX at $2, $3, $4, $5 and down to $4, $3, $3.50???
What I found with last post's "experiment" was very interesting, so I did more Lyco I-watch charting with stocks mentioned in recent news below.
Once again, NVAX showed the strongest Inst/M. Manager buy activity. Why?
Very interesting! So I did more with some stocks in my 20-40 lists. What I found was even more interesting.
Why are Institutional/Money Managers buying/accumulating NVAX in such numbers?
I wonder. Perhaps, coming days/weeks/months will tell us.
= THIS IS VERY INTERESTING!!! = :o
With much issues about Institutional/Money Managers buy activity in question, I did some Lycos I-watch comparison charts and found some very interesting results: (7th, 8th, 9th and 10th posts from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29171#msg29171
Well, I've been thinking some more and decided to pull some more comparison charts:
Thanks eranbob for the post from Yahoo MB!
In the absence of external stimuli, that could well be true. However, charts go out the window when news is pending. The anticipation of the Bush speech on the 'plan' will trump any predictions from TA.
David Randolph said this lastweek about NVAX, "Forget trading based on a trendline. Price completely got way from past levels, and if we waited for a trendline break to sell, a big chunk of profits would be lost."
Thanks go big or go home1 for the post from Yahoo MB:
Here's the excellent slide show visual presentation we couldn't see of Wednesday, October 19th Bio Investor Forum 2005. Very nice graphics!!!
http://technologyinvestor.com/images/NovavaxInvestorForum.pdf
Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.
excellent analysis LiveLife, applaud ;)
Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.
Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.
Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.
Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.
Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.
Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.
Here's the excellent slide show visual presentation we couldn't see of Wednesday, October 19th Bio Investor Forum 2005. Very nice graphics!!!
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.225
As you can see, Avian vaccine is a small part of Novavax.
Novavax continues to execute their business plan as expressed above and continues to expand their product lines and improve their operations (debt reduction and revenue generation).
Based on the information previously posted, I believe Novavax is a SOLID company EXCLUDING the Avian vaccine issue. Now that Novavax has a "FULL SOLUTION" that is "BEST IN CLASS," it makes Novavax that much more SOLID.
I believe it is matter of time before Novavax finds an attractive government/corporate partnership/joint venture/merger.
IMHO
While I appreciate all the fundamental info its good to remember that looking for fundamental reasons to stay in a stock that is technically breaking down is a basic error for a technical trader. Sellers make stocks go down ...buyers make it go up... Whose hand is driving it is the basis for owning it. WE are HOPING for a bounce off support but hope doesn't trade on the NASDAQ is a well known quote. A more sensible play would have been to have a stop in place below the support at 4.80. Now we are looking at 3.00 support unless it gets a big push up Monday over the Friday high. Anyway I assume David sold already since it violated his trading plan. There's always another big play and money management is the only way to stay longterm in the trading game. Best Wishes and again I appreciate hearing all the great input.
Thanks gagan for the post.
Yes, after "numerous" discussions and reviews of charts (BTW, David Randolph last week "did" say that NVAX was no longer "trendable"), it is my opinion that NVAX will dip towards $3 before rebounding.
So, my recommendations would be (choose one that applies to you):
1. If you are holding NVAX (long) and "uncomfortable" about the ride down to $3, then sell on market open, and buy back on signs of "bottom and rebound"
2. If you are holding NVAX (long) and "comfortable" about the ride down to $3 and rebounding, then hold
3. If you are holding NVAX and "wants" to swing trade, then sell on "signs" of more selloff on market open, and buy back on dip. Of course, be careful to look out for early dip so as to not miss out on any "potential spiking" rebound carried over from Friday, but set your sell target immediately after you buy and sell as NVAX gains (I will swing trade NVAX, but on Friday, decided to ride out the Monday morning activity by holding through the weekend - I bought back on Friday morning at $3.47 and sold on gains towards $4, but bought back at $3.62)
4. If you are not holding and "concerned" about the ride down to $3, then wait for a "definite" signs of "bottom and rebound" before you buy back
5. If you are not holding and "wants" to buy NVAX, carefully watch NVAX activity on open, and buy at any point you "feel" comfortable
6. If you are not holding and "wants to buy NVAX at any price", buy on open
7. If you are not holding and "wants to swing trade NVAX" carefully watch NVAX activity on open, buy on dip and sell as NVAX gains (unless NVAX opens with gap and climbs - THAT'S why I chose to hold through the weekend, just in case, NVAX gaps open high)
Well, I believe we should fall into one of the above options.
I hope this will address the Saturday's long discussions as to what will happen on Monday to NVAX and what we should do.
l am open to any comments on the issue.
Good trading!
Hi ;)
This is in response to the question, "What will happen to NVAX on Monday and what should I do?"
(8th post from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29199#msg29199
Thanks go big or go home1 for the post from Yahoo MB:
October 26, 2005
Novavax Highlighted by Awareness of Avian Flu, Analyst
Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) a specialty biopharmaceutical company, recently announced that Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, will be presenting at the C.E. Unterberg, Towbin Life Sciences Conference on Wednesday. With increasing visibiility stemming from this future conference and added media coverage of the avian flu, Novavax could really be able to capitalize on this opportunity if the company can manufacture a viable vaaccine. RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Trbovich upgraded Novavax on a similar rationale, saying that "if the company can be in human testing of the vaccine in early 2006, they will likely attract additional attention from the U.S. government or prospective partners." The shares are down today, after having an impressive run this past week. However, with positive news likely to come from the company in respect to their development of a new vaccine, this could just mark the start of a new leg up.
Quote from: defenderyou on October 29, 2005, 12:57:01 AM
WOnder what David did - did he dump SVA and NVAX as they both are below his target exit points?
I'm pretty sure he sold. Since he does always stick to the plan being
Quote from: David Randolph on October 28, 2005, 05:04:26 AM
I'm expecting NVAX to quickly come back up. I don't want to see it closing below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this last leg up ($3.70), or I'll take my profits and move on.
I did not sell. I got in high and feel stupid >:(. I sure don't believe this bird flu to be over yet and expect it to go back up.
Great post saffeysite !!! Let me applaud you for that. If I had only known that before... :'( Do you have more examples?
Thanks
Amarens
Thanks matthew minogue2000 for the post from Yahoo MB:
I firmly believe the floor is set, or pretty close. Here are my predictions for the next 2 weeks. We all know we will have earnings which we will beat because of the deals announced. The income stream will be a little light but other wise we beat estimates. I really believe that in the next 2 weeks we will get government money or a partnership or both. Upgrades will come I am sure of that with a deal and earnings. Once we see the institutional % update this hopefully will confirm my hunch that it has risen from 10% to 20%. Now this is purely speculation on my part. Lastly, we will be removed from the naked short list as a result. The CEO last week said that he wanted the company to be a premier biotech firm. From most CEO's I would consider that as B.S. but the company in the last 2 months has executed. It is all about execution and follow through now. I believe in this new management team and if I didn't I would be long gone.
Thanks mojobernard for the post from Yahoo MB:
Stock is a Buy.
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Look for Support at 2.92
Thanks for talking about your experiences in the market, we can all learn from them. I sold NVAX at $3.60 on Friday, collecting a 36% profit instead of the 111% I had 3 days back.
The rise was indeed parabolic, where I was wrong was that I thought it would still go higher. My analysis was a bit biased by that $10.56 target. I know there's a psychological thrill to trade with targets, and it has style, but overall it isn't wise. The more our mind concentrates on a specific target or on something that may happen in the future, the more it stops paying attention to what IS happening now. And now is the only time you can make analysis and decide to hold or sell.
As you know, I don't watch the intraday. Just the first and last half hour of the market. I don't think this diminishes my performance, I think it raises my chances of winning. I clearly remember when I watched the intraday, every tick, with millions of thoughts about buy/sell/hold. A bit of more happiness or sadness with every tick. Nobody can live with that for long, that's why most people end up being long term investors ... I like to do other things while the market is open to get all my energy to the end of the day analysis.
Anyway, 36% profit isn't bad, now it's time to move on to another speculative play. Good luck to those who continue to hold NVAX, I hope the stock rebounds next week.
From 07/22 to 08/25 (45 Days), total trading volume was about 22 M shares. During this period Hi was about 1.3 and Lo was about 0.7. From 08/26 to 10/28 (45 Days), total trading volume was about 40300 M shares. The volume is trying to tell us something (about 2000 times), share price will settle at some point in the near term (I think to be $4). During this period Hi was about 6 Lo was about 1.3. Within this 90 days period, there were 3 stage jumps. 1st stage price range was 0.7-1.3. 2nd stage price range was 1.3-2.5. 3rd stage price range was 2.5-6. I think the dust will settle. Price movement will oscillate between 3 - 4.5. Based on trend pattern, the next jump will occur around 1st week of December. Next week, I predict shares price will be down for Monday & Tuesday approach to support point 2.5-3.15. Trading strategy should be buying point around 3 and selling point around 4. However, note should be taken for news and possible contract announcement. If price movement pattern will duplicate for the period (08/26-10/28) for the next 45 days, it will be safe to trade between 3 - 4.5 before Thanksgiving. After that, holding should be a good strategy. Next week will be critical to watch the new pattern to surface. :o
Good post Hwang888,
Yes, last week David Randolph stated that NVAX is now a "speculative" play with potentially huge gain/loss that won't trend.
For short-term, we all must be careful. If you don't have the "stomach" for the anticipated volatility of this stock, you may want to cash out and sit on the sideline and buy back once the stock "trends" again.
For day/swing traders, exciting days/weeks ahead!!! Yes!!!
Livelife,
3sof is also a great site. I have been to Yahoo MB and it cannot be compared to 3sof. I just want to say thanks for your many great informative posts. It is guys like you who offers a lot of insight to beginners like me who is trying to learn and make sense of how to TAnalyze a stock.
I believe I fall into category :)
5. If you are not holding and "wants" to buy NVAX, carefully watch NVAX activity on open, and buy at any point you "feel" comfortable
6. If you are not holding and "wants to buy NVAX at any price", buy on open
Thanks David for your comments!
I agree and that's why I also don't daytrade (too nerve wrecking). Friday was an "exception" for me (I was home from work).
I reminded on my posts that NVAX is a "highly speculative" play with huge gain/loss risk and cautioned against next week, since I too believe that it will dip towards $3 before it rebounds.
Time is the best judge.
Good trading!
Thank you and you are very welcome.
I am just passing "forward" the same courtesy and stock trading wisdom that were shared with me by David Randolph, Frederick Ramsburg and many great "supporters" of 3SOF!
Once you gain some knowledge that works for you, share that information with other "newbies" to this site - "pay it forward!"
Be careful next week.
Good trading!
Repost from Yahoo MB today:
"Is NVAX a speculative play ONLY because of the volume; with MM, day-traders, doing their thing? It seems NVAX is a very viable long-term investment considering the base-line products NVAX is bringing on line right now AND the potential of the VLP technology. That coupled with good management and "connections" provides what seems to be a great future for NVAX.
I'd not want to buy on margin and/or put too much of my cash into NVAX. Yet, putting 10% of my investments into NVAX looks very reasonable considering the potential pay-off."
stockalias,
I believe David stated that NVAX is a "speculative" play because of it's unusual recent gain/volume activity, thus not "trendable."
David Randolph is a strictly "technical" trader and will probably stay out until the stock is "trendable" again.
I believe NVAX is a "speculative" play for the near future because so much of its gain/loss activity will depend heavily on the frenzy related to the spread of Avian flu and the recent media/government response.
If we did not have the Avian flu issue right now, I believe NVAX would have "trended" on a climb more traditional to a company that is doing the "right" thing to grow and improve their market position.
But the Avian bird flu is in our face right now and we must be very cautious. If the high risk of volatility of this stock worries you, you shouldn't be trading this stock. That's why I believe David Randolph decided to sit this one out for "now."
"IMHO, always do your own DD (research - due diligence)"
Good trading!
Repost from Yahoo MB today:
"Is NVAX a speculative play ONLY because of the volume; with MM, day-traders, doing their thing? It seems NVAX is a very viable long-term investment considering the base-line products NVAX is bringing on line right now AND the potential of the VLP technology. That coupled with good management and "connections" provides what seems to be a great future for NVAX.
I'd not want to buy on margin and/or put too much of my cash into NVAX. Yet, putting 10% of my investments into NVAX looks very reasonable considering the potential pay-off."
stockalias,
I believe David stated that NVAX is a "speculative" play because of it's unusual recent gain/volume activity, thus not "trendable."
David Randolph is a strictly "technical" trader and will probably stay out until the stock is "trendable" again.
I believe NVAX is a "speculative" play for the near future because so much of its gain/loss activity will depend heavily on the frenzy related to the spread of Avian flu and the recent media/government response.
If we did not have the Avian flu issue right now, I believe NVAX would have "trended" on a climb more traditional to a company that is doing the "right" thing to grow and improve their market position.
But the Avian bird flu is in our face right now and we must be very cautious. If the high risk of volatility of this stock worries you, you shouldn't be trading this stock. That's why I believe David Randolph decided to sit this one out for "now."
"IMHO, always do your own DD (research - due diligence)"
Good trading!
Repost from Yahoo MB today:
Good to have your support gunboat1919,
BUT I WANT EVERYONE TO KNOW THAT NVAX FOR THE NEAR FUTURE (DURING AVIAN FRENZY GOVERNMENT/MEDIA RESPONSE NEXT WEEK) IS A VERY "SPECULATIVE" PLAY!
Do not buy NVAX on "hope, hype, or the greed that it will hit $6 any time soon"
Only buy NVAX if you realize the "RISK" of this volatile market/stock trend for Avian plays!!!
My guess is that it may go down to $3 before it rebounds, unless there is a tremendous bullish buying demand that will push the stock price to rebound, overcoming the sellers' bearish pressure.
If that does happen, then we may see a spiking rebound, which I am "gambling" on and the risk I am willing to take. I WILL SELL on Monday morning if I do not see this bullish buying pressure.
So = BE WARNED! =
Those that understand the risks and the often "emotional" market trend swings (panic selloff, for one) and willing to "endure" Monday morning market open after $6 down to $3.59 fall, I admire your "something"
Those that took profit above $4-$5 range and bought back sub-$4, especially around $3.50, great! = High Five! =
Let's roll on Monday! Have your buy/sell buttons handy, it may be exciting or ugly.
Good trading!
Thanks schatzie poo for the link, post from Yahoo MB:
http://www.news24.com/News24v2/Search/n24SearchResults/1,,,00.html?type=news&query=bird+flu+vaccine+developed&imageField.x=15&imageField.y=4
Bird flu vaccine developed
27/10/2005 14:00 - (SA)
Falk AdSolution
Brussels - European scientists have developed a vaccine for a strain of avian flu known as H7N1 which can spread from birds to humans, but is not judged as dangerous as the H5N1 strain that has killed people in Asia. More...
schatzie poo,
There are many manufacturer that make the annual flu vaccine.
As such, there will be many that will make the vaccine for the Avian virus (the many strains)
Just because you are one the many players doesn't mean you are out of the game. Besides, vaccine development is a "small" part of Novavax's overall operations.
By the way, according to the article, "The risk of H7 emerging as a pandemic influenza strain is considered to be lower than H5N1," the EU said in a statement.
"Nonetheless, it is expected that the H7 FLUPAN research will be a valuable resource for pandemic vaccine development in the future."
So, they DID NOT develop a vaccine for the H5N1 European strain of Avian virus. Besides, even they do, will they have the surge capacity and the production process to mass produce the vaccine? Well, Novavax does. And they ARE working on the H5N1 European strain as we speak. And yes, they do have the surge capacity and the production process to mass produce the vaccine, once an effective "immunogenic" vaccine IS developed.
Besides, Novavax is the only one that has proprietary adjuvant Novasomes that will allow Novavax to develop a single dose Avian vaccine that is strong enough to provide immunogenic protection. Current vaccines require a second shot in 30 days.
What'ya think about this? Seems like they're moving their HQ to philly out of columbia.
http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2004/08/23/story2.html
Thanks ggekko558 for the post from Yahoo MB:
http://stock-market-alerts.com/
NVAX Gets Brought Back to Earth
October 31, 2005 @ 3:38 am · Filed under General Alerts
We talked about NVAX earlier in the week. NVAX made a pretty nice run from $2 up to about $6 when the whole "bird flu" thing started to make the news. NVAX has an avian flu vaccine that they are working on, which is why the stock attracted such interest throughout the week. Volume was huge, and the stock was trading very strongly. But then, the stock changed directions, and fell from a close of $5.53 on Tuesday to a close of $3.59 on Friday. What happened?
First off, daytrader interest seems to be waning in the stock. Over 50 million shares traded on Tuesday; by Friday, this number was down to 25 million shares. A 50% drop in volume for a stock such as this is bound to cause problems.
Also, on Thursday it was announced that some NVAX convertible bond holders were converting six million dollars worth of convertible notes into 1.05 million shares of NVAX at a conversion rate of $5.68. This add to the number of shares outstanding, and will inevitably lead to a decline in the share value, as more shares hit the market.
Can NVAX remain in favor of the daytraders? NVAX will be a very news driven stock for the next month or so. If the company announces news, or if the bird flu continues to dominate headlines, then NVAX should continue to be in play.
Good morning everyone!! (LOL, daylight savings...it's 4:30 am, but my body thinks 5:30 am and I am up!)
All the Asian markets carried Friday's bullish rally and so did the European markets!!!
So, today looks to be another follow up on the Bullish return of the historical November - January "BULL MARKET"
If this is the case, then those that cashed out of the last few "bearish" months WILL BE BUYING and you can bet they've been busy screening stocks that were heavily discounted recently (Aha! like NVAX $6-$3.50!!!)
So, be ready for new buyers' demand on the market this morning.
= I looked at more charts this morning and there is good argument for NVAX retracing downward before it rebounds =
But David already said NVAX for now is not "trendable" so unless there is a BIG selloff activitiy, I am going to ride out any small selloff, to be followed by what looks to be a MASSIVE BUY activity. The MB (Yahoo and 3SOF) was "Hopping HOT" the entire weekend!!! It never went dead...it went on 24/7!!! 3SOF NVAX board had over 1,000 views in one day!!! That's more than what an average 3SOF MB thread gets in its life!!! That's an amazing traffic!!!
So, I am very bullish for NVAX this morning.
Be careful everyone this morning!
Good morning everyone!! (LOL, daylight savings...it's 4:30 am, but my body thinks 5:30 am and I am up!)
All the Asian markets carried Friday's bullish rally and so did the European markets!!!
So, today looks to be another follow up on the Bullish return of the historical November - January "BULL MARKET"
If this is the case, then those that cashed out of the last few "bearish" months WILL BE BUYING and you can bet they've been busy screening stocks that were heavily discounted recently (Aha! like NVAX $6-$3.50!!!)
So, be ready for new buyers' demand on the market this morning.
= I looked at more charts this morning and there is good argument for NVAX retracing downward before it rebounds =
But David already said NVAX for now is not "trendable" so unless there is a BIG selloff activitiy, I am going to ride out any small selloff, to be followed by what looks to be a MASSIVE BUY activity. The MB (Yahoo and 3SOF) was "Hopping HOT" the entire weekend!!! It never went dead...it went on 24/7!!! 3SOF NVAX board had over 1,000 views in one day!!! That's more than what an average 3SOF MB thread gets in its life!!! That's an amazing traffic!!!
So, I am very bullish for NVAX this morning.
Be careful everyone this morning!
Thanks song1017 for the Avian news link, from Yahoo MB:
http://www.theworldpress.com/press/worldpress/croatiapress/news.htm
Thanks a1stockboy for the post and "Heads Up" for Monday market open...from Yahoo MB:
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/premarketma.stm
Thanks a1stockboy for the post and "Heads Up" for Monday market open...from Yahoo MB:
Bloomberg reports market futures "VERY BULLISH" for today.
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/premarketma.stm
It's 10:15 (eastern) trading sideways....i'm holding in there... ??? 8) ???
I like this idea of a "sector" pick. I hope people start posting more picks like this on Stock Picking as more people come here as opposed to Stock Talking.
Just wanted to add my 2 cents to the bird flu sector (I own SVA, NVAX and HEB). Over the weekend I say the secretary of Health and Human Services on CSPAN say that:
As long as the possiblity of a bird flu pandemic is greater than 0, we have to deal with the situation as if there was a pandemic.
Also saw the bird flu issue discussed on Nightline and Saturday Night Live.
The real catalyst for the media frenzie should be Bush's talk on Tuesday.
Good luck.
;) Since there has been some issues with Lycos I-watch, I will post from now on this:
More solid blue arrows after early morning red arrow!!! :D
;) Since there has been some issues with Lycos I-watch, I will post from now on this:
More solid blue arrows after early morning red arrow!!! :D
I must be contrarian today. I didn´t sell SVA ( >:() , AVII( :-X) anb bought back NVAX @ 3.85. ( :-X)The opposite to 3SOF..
Why only on sunday we know that David sold NVAX on friday? ??? >:( :( :-\
Best,
Vova
Quote from: voova99 on October 31, 2005, 02:17:30 PM
Why only on sunday we know that David sold NVAX on friday? ??? >:( :( :-\
Best,
Vova
You are right voova why is that?.. the update is late... i'm thinking of subscribing but ...maybe david is busy ;)
I felt lost all weekend. I think the picks are great but I also feel after that I am pretty much on my own.
Quote from: voova99 on October 31, 2005, 02:17:30 PM
Why only on sunday we know that David sold NVAX on friday? ??? >:( :( :-\
voova and terlisa,
In the NVAX folder on The Members Board, David posted on Friday morning before the open that he would take his profits if NVAX closed below 3.70. NVAX was weak late Friday afternoon, and below 3.70. He sold, as he said he would.
These instructions aren't posted in the Non-member section.
Here's an excerpt from David's Friday morning post:
Re: I want the whole Bird Flu group: NVAX
« Reply #167 on: October 28, 2005, 05:04:26 AM »
"I'm expecting NVAX to quickly come back up. I don't want to see it closing below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this last leg up ($3.70), or I'll take my profits and move on."
CBMX- in a rush, ill come back to it. does anyone know if this is an american BIRD FLU company.
Also, when David says he will sell if the stock closes or falls like a knife thru his recommedation, that means he can sell before the market opens, during the intraday or the next opening day. NVAX happened to close @ 3.59 so he sold it before the close.
I day traded CBMX last week on this news, it could still be in play.Bought in pre mkt.@ 1.80 & sold 2.42. It's a fast mover.
CombiMatrix Group
6500 Harbour Heights Parkway
Mukilteo, WA, 98275
United States
Phone: +1 425 4932000
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Oct 26, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Acacia Research
Corporation (CBMX, Trade)(ACTG, Trade) announced today that its CombiMatrix Group has launched a new comprehensive influenza DNA microarray as well as services for the typing of influenza strains. CombiMatrix's Influenza Microarray is now a member of the CatalogArray(TM) product line and can detect and accurately type flu strains using a protocol that requires less than four hours start to finish. This new microarray can identify H5N1 bird flu as well as all other strains of Influenza A. It can also provide information on mutations and novel strains of flu not yet seen. It is designed to work on samples from humans as well as from birds, pigs, horses, dogs, and various other animals. Strains of Influenza A include H5N1 bird flu, which so far is resulting in 50% mortality rate among people who are infected; the 1918 strain, which killed an estimated 50 million people; the 1957 "Asian" flu and the 1968 "Hong Kong" Flu, which both caused pandemics; the 1976 "Swine" flu; and the current dog flu. The Influenza Microarray provides very-high-resolution genotype information on any given flu strain as well as information on novel strains of flu produced by rapid mutation or recombination between multiple strains of flu.
This system is available to the flu researcher as a tool or as a service from CombiMatrix. This system is also being developed as a field-deployable biodetector using electrochemical techniques for analysis. This array can be employed as an adjunct to existing technology, to type difficult or ambiguous samples of flu, or to study genetic drift in a flu virus as it moves through a population. Knowledge of the exact strain, origin of the strain, and probable characteristics of the virus are critical for disease surveillance and limiting the spread of the disease.
The current, major public health concern is the avian H5N1 virus, which has potential for further recombination with common human strains (such as H3N2) or other non-human strains common in avian populations (H7 and H9 strains). The current strain, which was initially found in birds in East Asia, has only infected humans who have been exposed to infected birds. Through the migration of birds, this strain has now been seen in other geographic regions and is expected to reach all continents. Should the virus become transmissible from human to human, it has the potential to cause a world-wide pandemic. In addition, many strains exhibit resistance to drugs that are used to treat influenza, and this array may identify these subtypes. Therefore, identification of the strain and subtype and accurate sequence information could be crucial to treatment of infected individuals as well as develop appropriate vaccines.
"Rapid response and accurate information are the absolute key criteria when dealing with a highly transmissible virus, such as influenza," said Dr. Amit Kumar, President and CEO of CombiMatrix. "CombiMatrix's platform is ideal for the rapid development of new tools to rapidly identify emerging diseases."
CNBC tonight at 7pm eastern time. Had a whole thing on BIRD Flu.
I'm on Calif time - I will check it out.
Nice day for NVAX!!! Yes, based on this morning's activity, I cancelled my limit sell before work. ;)
After gapping up $0.14 on open, NVAX closed up at $4.04 with $0.45 (12.53%) gain with 16.8 million shares traded!!! Something must have happened during lunch discussions because early afternoon, there was a $0.20 spike with matching volume.
Also, early morning and brief "solid red" arrows were followed by more "solid blue" arrows during the day :D (=Note= This "simplified and literal" Lycos I-watch expression is in response to some who questioned my "interpretation" of the data on I-watch, please, form your own opinions) :D
Anyway, whoever sold that "solid red" blocks (50K and 200K) of NVAX this morning is probably having some interesting "talks" right now, unless they bought back later intraday at higher prices!!! :D
Before we celebrate, I believe tomorrow will be more "nerve wrecking" for NVAX. NVAX is "highly" speculative right now, and what president Bush says tomorrow will have profound effect on the movement of this and many other Avian stocks. So, continue to be careful tomorrow!
However, after the $6 to $3.59 fall, $0.45 rebound is a welcome activity that may continue to "trend" up if the Avian related news is positive for Novavax.
Washington's New Priority: Avian Flu Vaccine Production
Vaccine improvement is expected to take center stage in the Bush administration's preparations for a worldwide flu outbreak, with a potential travel ban and restrictions on global commerce part of the contingency planning.
[...]
But the administration plan calls for more than stockpiling shots. It will stress a new method of manufacturing flu vaccines — growing the virus to make them in easy-to-handle cell cultures instead of today's cumbersome process that uses millions of chicken eggs — as well as incentives for new U.S.-based vaccine factories to open.
This is exciting news for NVAX since it already has the "new method of manufacturing flu vaccines" Washington is looking for! My [2] cents.
[R]ead it here (http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-10-31-bush-bird-flu_x.htm).
Avian Flu Enters the Western Hemisphere?
Canada discovers H5 avian flu virus in wild birds, but the specific H5N1 strain is not yet verified by authorities. Pandemic threat up another notch...
[R]ead it here (http://www.breitbart.com/news/na/051031210450.5y8rg6u2.html).
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.270#bot
Alright, im not as smart as you guys... what is the groups thoughts on which stock would prosper the most from Bush's talk of millions or billions going into vaccines. HEB? NVAX? SVA? CBMX? GNBT? or all the above? hell since i own all the above it really does not matter, just would like to know what you guys think.
"The money is to be spent at the president's discretion, but senators said it should be used both for medications and vaccine and for beefing up hospitals and other systems to detect and contain a super-flu."
CBMX ??? :o ;D
"A word about Yahoo message boards"
To those that unfortunately visited Yahoo NVAX MB tonight, it should be painfully obvious why website like 3StocksOnFire.org needs to exist, ... :-[
While there are many of us (including "newbies" like me) that are serious and sincere about stock trading, there are many others who use the Yahoo finance MB as a forum to express their rudeness, and at times, outright stupidity.
Yahoo finance MBs are public forums and thus allow the "freedom of speech" that "unfortunately" is apparent, whether they are relevant to stock trading or not.
It is reasons like these that I came to 3SOF. What I found was a refreshing and informative site that provides forum for us stock traders who are interested in stock trading, and not someone else's trash.
Hi, you will notice I'm not asking this on the Yahoo MB.....lol
My question is this, you say you learned swing trading and I would assume how to set price targets from other traders on this site. Would you be so kind as to point me to the thread(s) you followed to gain this knowledge?
Thank you & Cheers from Thailand
living in the hotzone,
That was July-August!!! I do not believe I can recall the specific posts because I read literally "hundreds" of posts each week!!!
The best thing that I can recommend is to browse the MB posts and try to find postings where they are setting targets based on technical analysis and chart trends. Or you can place your questions where someone is regularlly posting TA analysis and ask them for target setting.
Hope I helped.
Good morning and thank you for all the supportive emails last night!!! Thanks Ramsburg! :D
The Asian and European stock markets were "mixed" with majority of the markets being up, so be careful with US markets today. There may be some profit taking after Friday and Monday's gains!
I also attached short-term/long-term analysis and target projections by BarChart.com and premarket activity for NVAX.
Watch for profit taking with NVAX today and positive/negative response to Bush's speech!
Good trading!
Quote from: puenthouse on October 31, 2005, 10:07:08 PM
.. what is the groups thoughts on which stock would prosper the most from Bush's talk of millions or billions going into vaccines. HEB? NVAX? SVA? CBMX? GNBT? or all the above?
Ladies & Gentelman ... the winner is.... NVAX!!! .. the $10 Davis's target is still viable (I like cbmx too...)
Wow!!! The president Bush's presentation on "Avian Flu Response Plan" sounded like he read the Novavax CEO presentation, all except mentioning "Novavax"!!! ;D This is great!!!
And the presentation was done at NIH, and Novavax is past and current "specialized" contractor for NIH!!! "hint, hint" ;)
Here's my "highlight transcript" of Bush's Avian response plan presented at 10:10 EDT: (sorry for typos and "rough" format, I was typing as fast as he spoke. I think I got about 80% of content) ;)
Seasonal flu is extremely dangerous for some, not for healthy people.
Pandemic flu is another matter, for a new strain of influenza, people have little or no natural "immunity"
pandemic flu can kill everone: young, old, healthy
There is no pandemic flu right now, but history makes us concerned, there has been 3 pandemic flues this century: 1918, killed 500,000 and 20 million,
1/3 of US population was infected. 1957 and 1968 pandemic killed millions more.
SARS then appeared in China, and spread quickly by air travel and lasted about 6 months.
pandemic can last 1-3 years and scientists cannot predict when, but they all agree they are very concerned with H5N1 "bird flu"
This new strain of influenza has infected domestic bird, migratory birds and spreading worldwide quickly. 1997 showed first case, 2003 started another outbreak of Avian flu.
There is no "actual" pandemic right now because Avian flu is still an "animal" infection.
Avian is not yet human-to-human, but has demonstrated ability to infect human beings.
If human-to-human infection does occur, it will be a grave threat to our "national security"
Administration key elements of the Avian Response Plan:
3 critical goals:
1. Detect outbreaks anywhere in the world
2. Stockpile vaccines and anti-viral drugs. Support new vaccine technology
3. Ready to respond at federal, state, local level
Need support of people and congress
In September, at UN, Bush urged international partnership with immediate notifications to WHO of Avian outbreaks.
A flu pandemic will have "global" consequences.
1. National Bio-surveillance Initiative for detecting diseases in animals and human to stop the spread of pandemic flu
2. Support vaccine development and production of new vaccine for the changing strains of Avian virus.
NIH current working in clinical trials with the current strain of H5N1. The vaccine against the current strain will save many critical lives
3. Increasing the stockpile of Tamiflu and Relenza, but it is not a cure, only a treatment that is only effective if taken within 48 hours of infection
The cornerstone of our strategy is to develop new vaccines quickly with "surge" capacity [Dang, sounds like Novavax!!! Oh My!!! ;D]
Recently met with leaders of vaccine industry.
NIH working with "new cell culture" based technology [Can you say "Novavax"!!! ;D]
Most vaccines are still produced with 1950 technology using chicken eggs that will take many many months
We must go on a "crash" program
Asking 2.8 billion dollars for cell culture technology!
Asking congress to remove "lawsuits and litigation" from vaccine manufacturers in US
Congress must pass liability protection for makers of vaccines to facilitate the production of vaccines for the changing strains of Avian virus.
In the event of a pandemic, we must have enough vaccines on hand to respond effectively.
3. Outbreaks can occur simultaneously at several different locations that can last a year or more
Need "emergency" plans in all 50 states, need to be able to deliver vaccines and anti-virals to affected areas quickly. At the federal level, working with state and local government and agency officials to improve this national response plan.
Asking congress $583 million for pandemic preparedness plan.
Asking congress $100 million for pandemic exercises (federal, state and local) "now"
Need more health care staff and supplies and federal government is "stock piling" equipment and supplies nationwide.
To respond to pandemic, Americans must be informed about Avian flu. New website was created: www.pandemicflu.gov
Influenza pandemic will have global consequences and require global cooperations by world governments.
Asking total of $7.1 billion "emergency" funding from congress to take us into 21th century
By perfecting cell based vaccines now, we will be ready and this nation will never again have shortage of flu vaccines and be prepared for other future "potential" terrorist attacks using biological weapon
If we wait for the pandemic to appear, it will be too late
By preparing now, the nation will be ready to respond to the pandemic
President's Letter
My fellow Americans,
Once again, nature has presented us with a daunting challenge: the possibility of an influenza pandemic.
Most of us are accustomed to seasonal influenza, or "the flu," a viral infection that continues to be a significant public health challenge. From time to time, changes in the influenza virus result in a new strain to which people have never been exposed. These new strains have the potential to sweep the globe, causing millions of illnesses, in what is called a pandemic.
A new strain of influenza virus has been found in birds in Asia, and has shown that it can infect humans. If this virus undergoes further change, it could very well result in the next human pandemic.
We have an opportunity to prepare ourselves, our Nation, and our world to fight this potentially devastating outbreak of infectious disease.
The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza presents our approach to address the threat of pandemic influenza, whether it results from the strain currently in birds in Asia or another influenza virus. It outlines how we intend to prepare, detect, and respond to a pandemic. It also outlines the important roles to be played not only by the Federal government, but also by State and local governments, private industry, our international partners, and most importantly individual citizens, including you and your families.
While your government will do much to prepare for a pandemic, individual action and individual responsibility are necessary for the success of any measures. Not only should you take action to protect yourself and your families, you should also take action to prevent the spread of influenza if you or anyone in your family becomes ill.
Together we will confront this emerging threat and together, as Americans, we will be prepared to protect our families, our communities, this great Nation, and our world.
GEORGE W. BUSH
THE WHITE HOUSE
November 1, 2005
Introduction
Although remarkable advances have been made in science and medicine during the past century, we are constantly reminded that we live in a universe of microbes - viruses, bacteria, protozoa and fungi that are forever changing and adapting themselves to the human host and the defenses that humans create.
Influenza viruses are notable for their resilience and adaptability. While science has been able to develop highly effective vaccines and treatments for many infectious diseases that threaten public health, acquiring these tools is an ongoing challenge with the influenza virus. Changes in the genetic makeup of the virus require us to develop new vaccines on an annual basis and forecast which strains are likely to predominate.
As a result, and despite annual vaccinations, the U.S. faces a burden of influenza that results in approximately 36,000 deaths and more than 200,000 hospitalizations each year. In addition to this human toll, influenza is annually responsible for a total cost of over $10 billion in the U.S.
A pandemic, or worldwide outbreak of a new influenza virus, could dwarf this impact by overwhelming our health and medical capabilities, potentially resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of hospitalizations, and hundreds of billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs. This Strategy will guide our preparedness and response activities to mitigate that impact.
The Pandemic Threat
Pandemics happen when a novel influenza virus emerges that infects and can be efficiently transmitted between humans. Animals are the most likely reservoir for these emerging viruses; avian viruses played a role in the last three influenza pandemics. Two of these pandemic-causing viruses remain in circulation and are responsible for the majority of influenza cases each year.
Pandemics have occurred intermittently over centuries. The last three pandemics, in 1918, 1957 and 1968, killed approximately 40 million, 2 million and 1 million people worldwide, respectively. Although the timing cannot be predicted, history and science suggest that we will face one or more pandemics in this century.
The current pandemic threat stems from an unprecedented outbreak of avian influenza in Asia and Europe, caused by the H5N1 strain of the Influenza A virus. To date, the virus has infected birds in 16 countries and has resulted in the deaths, through illness and culling, of approximately 200 million birds across Asia. While traditional control measures have been attempted, the virus is now endemic in Southeast Asia, present in long-range migratory birds, and unlikely to be eradicated soon.
A notable and worrisome feature of the H5N1 virus is its ability to infect a wide range of hosts, including birds and humans. As of the date of this document, the virus is known to have infected 121 people in four countries, resulting in 62 deaths over the past two years. Although the virus has not yet shown an ability to transmit efficiently between humans, as is seen with the annual influenza virus, there is concern that it will acquire this capability through genetic mutation or exchange of genetic material with a human influenza virus.
It is impossible to know whether the currently circulating H5N1 virus will cause a human pandemic. The widespread nature of H5N1 in birds and the likelihood of mutations over time raise our concerns that the virus will become transmissible between humans, with potentially catastrophic consequences. If this does not happen with the current H5N1 strain, history suggests that a different influenza virus will emerge and result in the next pandemic.
The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza
Preparing for a pandemic requires the leveraging of all instruments of national power, and coordinated action by all segments of government and society. Influenza viruses do not respect the distinctions of race, sex, age, profession or nationality, and are not constrained by geographic boundaries. The next pandemic is likely to come in waves, each lasting months, and pass through communities of all size across the nation and world. While a pandemic will not damage power lines, banks or computer networks, it will ultimately threaten all critical infrastructure by removing essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months.
This makes a pandemic a unique circumstance necessitating a strategy that extends well beyond health and medical boundaries, to include the sustainment of critical infrastructure, private-sector activities, the movement of goods and services across the nation and the globe, and economic and security considerations. The uncertainties associated with influenza viruses require that our Strategy be versatile, to ensure that we are prepared for any virus with pandemic potential, as well as the annual burden of influenza that we know we will face.
The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza guides our preparedness and response to an influenza pandemic, with the intent of (1) stopping, slowing or otherwise limiting the spread of a pandemic to the United States; (2) limiting the domestic spread of a pandemic, and mitigating disease, suffering and death; and (3) sustaining infrastructure and mitigating impact to the economy and the functioning of society.
The Strategy will provide a framework for future U.S. Government planning efforts that is consistent with The National Security Strategy and the National Strategy for Homeland Security. It recognizes that preparing for and responding to a pandemic cannot be viewed as a purely federal responsibility, and that the nation must have a system of plans at all levels of government and in all sectors outside of government that can be integrated to address the pandemic threat. It is guided by the following principles:
The federal government will use all instruments of national power to address the pandemic threat.
States and communities should have credible pandemic preparedness plans to respond to an outbreak within their jurisdictions.
The private sector should play an integral role in preparedness before a pandemic begins, and should be part of the national response.
Individual citizens should be prepared for an influenza pandemic, and be educated about individual responsibility to limit the spread of infection if they or their family members become ill.
Global partnerships will be leveraged to address the pandemic threat.
Pillars of the National Strategy
Our Strategy addresses the full spectrum of events that link a farmyard overseas to a living room in America. While the circumstances that connect these environments are very different, our strategic principles remain relevant. The pillars of our Strategy are:
Preparedness and Communication: Activities that should be undertaken before a pandemic to ensure preparedness, and the communication of roles and responsibilities to all levels of government, segments of society and individuals.
Surveillance and Detection: Domestic and international systems that provide continuous "situational awareness," to ensure the earliest warning possible to protect the population.
Response and Containment: Actions to limit the spread of the outbreak and to mitigate the health, social and economic impacts of a pandemic.
Implementation of the National Strategy
This Strategy reflects the federal government's approach to the pandemic threat. While it provides strategic direction for the Departments and Agencies of the U.S. Government, it does not attempt to catalogue and assign all federal responsibilities. The implementation of this Strategy and specific responsibilities will be described separately.
Pillar One: Preparedness and Communication
Preparedness is the underpinning of the entire spectrum of activities, including surveillance, detection, containment and response efforts. We will support pandemic planning efforts, and clearly communicate expectations to individuals, communities and governments, whether overseas or in the United States, recognizing that all share the responsibility to limit the spread of infection in order to protect populations beyond their borders.
Planning for a Pandemic
To enhance preparedness, we will:
Develop federal implementation plans to support this Strategy, to include all components of the U.S. government and to address the full range of consequences of a pandemic, including human and animal health, security, transportation, economic, trade and infrastructure considerations.
Work through multilateral health organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and regional organizations such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, as well as through bilateral and multilateral contacts to:
Support the development and exercising of avian and pandemic response plans;
Expand in-country medical, veterinary and scientific capacity to respond to an outbreak; and
Educate populations at home and abroad about high-risk practices that increase the likelihood of virus transmission between species.
Continue to work with states and localities to:
Establish and exercise pandemic response plans;
Develop medical and veterinary surge capacity plans; and
Integrate non-health sectors, including the private sector and critical infrastructure entities, in these planning efforts.
Build upon existing domestic mechanisms to rapidly recruit and deploy large numbers of health, medical and veterinary providers within or across jurisdictions to match medical requirements with capabilities.
Communicating Expectations and Responsibilities
A critical element of pandemic planning is ensuring that people and entities not accustomed to responding to health crises understand the actions and priorities required to prepare for and respond to a pandemic. Those groups include political leadership at all levels of government, non-health components of government and members of the private sector. Essential planning also includes the coordination of efforts between human and animal health authorities. In order to accomplish this, we will:
Work to ensure clear, effective and coordinated risk communication, domestically and internationally, before and during a pandemic. This includes identifying credible spokespersons at all levels of government to effectively coordinate and communicate helpful, informative messages in a timely manner.
Provide guidance to the private sector and critical infrastructure entities on their role in the pandemic response, and considerations necessary to maintain essential services and operations despite significant and sustained worker absenteeism.
Provide guidance to individuals on infection control behaviors they should adopt pre-pandemic, and the specific actions they will need to take during a severe influenza season or pandemic, such as self-isolation and protection of others if they themselves contract influenza.
Provide guidance and support to poultry, swine and related industries on their role in responding to an outbreak of avian influenza, including ensuring the protection of animal workers and initiating or strengthening public education campaigns to minimize the risks of infection from animal products.
Producing and Stockpiling Vaccines, Antivirals and Medical Material
In combination with traditional public health measures, vaccines and antiviral drugs form the foundation of our infection control strategy. Vaccination is the most important element of this strategy, but we acknowledge that a two-pronged strategy incorporating both vaccines and antivirals is essential. To establish production capacity and stockpiles in support of our containment and response strategies, we will:
Encourage nations to develop production capacity and stockpiles to support their response needs, to include pooling of efforts to create regional capacity.
Encourage and subsidize the development of state-based antiviral stockpiles to support response activities.
Ensure that our national stockpile and stockpiles based in states and communities are properly configured to respond to the diversity of medical requirements presented by a pandemic, including personal protective equipment, antibiotics and general supplies.
Establish domestic production capacity and stockpiles of countermeasures to ensure:
Sufficient vaccine to vaccinate front-line personnel and at-risk populations, including military personnel;
Sufficient vaccine to vaccinate the entire U.S. population within six months of the emergence of a virus with pandemic potential; and
Antiviral treatment for those who contract a pandemic strain of influenza.
Facilitate appropriate coordination of efforts across the vaccine manufacturing sector.
Address regulatory and other legal barriers to the expansion of our domestic vaccine production capacity.
Expand the public health recommendations for domestic seasonal influenza vaccination and encourage the same practice internationally.
Expand the domestic supply of avian influenza vaccine to control a domestic outbreak of avian influenza in bird populations.
Establishing Distribution Plans for Vaccines and Antivirals
It is essential that we prioritize the allocation of countermeasures (vaccines and antivirals) that are in limited supply and define effective distribution modalities during a pandemic. We will:
Develop credible countermeasure distribution mechanisms for vaccine and antiviral agents prior to and during a pandemic.
Prioritize countermeasure allocation before an outbreak, and update this prioritization immediately after the outbreak begins based on the at-risk populations, available supplies and the characteristics of the virus.
Advancing Scientific Knowledge and Accelerating Development
Research and development of vaccines, antivirals, adjuvants and diagnostics represents our best defense against a pandemic. To realize our goal of next-generation countermeasures against influenza, we must make significant and targeted investments in promising technologies. We will:
Ensure that there is maximal sharing of scientific information about influenza viruses between governments, scientific entities and the private sector.
Work with our international partners to ensure that we are all leveraging the most advanced technological approaches available for vaccine production.
Accelerate the development of cell culture technology for influenza vaccine production and establish a domestic production base to support vaccination demands.
Use novel investment strategies to advance the development of next-generation influenza diagnostics and countermeasures, including new antivirals, vaccines, adjuvant technologies, and countermeasures that provide protection across multiple strains and seasons of the influenza virus.
Pillar Two: Surveillance and Detection
Early warning of a pandemic and our ability to closely track the spread of avian influenza outbreak is critical to being able to rapidly employ resources to contain the spread of the virus. An effective surveillance and detection system will save lives by allowing us to activate our response plans before the arrival of a pandemic virus to the U.S., activate additional surveillance systems and initiate vaccine production and administration.
Ensuring Rapid Reporting of Outbreaks
To support our need for "situational awareness," both domestically and internationally, we will:
Work through the International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza, as well as through other political and diplomatic channels such as the United Nations and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, to ensure transparency, scientific cooperation and rapid reporting of avian and human influenza cases.
Support the development of the proper scientific and epidemiologic expertise in affected regions to ensure early recognition of changes in the pattern of avian or human outbreaks.
Support the development and sustainment of sufficient U.S. and host nation laboratory capacity and diagnostic reagents in affected regions and domestically, to provide rapid confirmation of cases in animals or humans.
Advance mechanisms for "real-time" clinical surveillance in domestic acute care settings such as emergency departments, intensive care units and laboratories to provide local, state and federal public health officials with continuous awareness of the profile of illness in communities, and leverage all federal medical capabilities, both domestic and international, in support of this objective.
Develop and deploy rapid diagnostics with greater sensitivity and reproducibility to allow onsite diagnosis of pandemic strains of influenza at home and abroad, in animals and humans, to facilitate early warning, outbreak control and targeting of antiviral therapy.
Expand our domestic livestock and wildlife surveillance activities to ensure early warning of the spread of an outbreak to our shores.
Using Surveillance to Limit Spread
Although influenza does not respect geographic or political borders, entry to and egress from affected areas represent opportunities to control or at the very least slow the spread of infection. In parallel to our containment measures, we will:
Develop mechanisms to rapidly share information on travelers who may be carrying or may have been exposed to a pandemic strain of influenza, for the purposes of contact tracing and outbreak investigation.
Develop and exercise mechanisms to provide active and passive surveillance during an outbreak, both within and beyond our borders.
Expand and enhance mechanisms for screening and monitoring animals that may harbor viruses with pandemic potential.
Develop screening and monitoring mechanisms and agreements to appropriately control travel and shipping of potentially infected products to and from affected regions if necessary, and to protect unaffected populations.
Pillar Three: Response and Containment
We recognize that a virus with pandemic potential anywhere represents a risk to populations everywhere. Once health authorities have signaled sustained and efficient human-to-human spread of the virus has occurred, a cascade of response mechanisms will be initiated, from the site of the documented transmission to locations around the globe.
Containing Outbreaks
The most effective way to protect the American population is to contain an outbreak beyond the borders of the U.S. While we work to prevent a pandemic from reaching our shores, we recognize that slowing or limiting the spread of the outbreak is a more realistic outcome and can save many lives. In support of our containment strategy, we will:
Work through the International Partnership to develop a coalition of strong partners to coordinate actions to limit the spread of a virus with pandemic potential beyond the location where it is first recognized in order to protect U.S. interests abroad.
Where appropriate, offer and coordinate assistance from the United States and other members of the International Partnership.
Encourage all levels of government, domestically and globally, to take appropriate and lawful action to contain an outbreak within the borders of their community, province, state or nation.
Where appropriate, use governmental authorities to limit non-essential movement of people, goods and services into and out of areas where an outbreak occurs.
Provide guidance to all levels of government on the range of options for infection-control and containment, including those circumstances where social distancing measures, limitations on gatherings, or quarantine authority may be an appropriate public health intervention.
Emphasize the roles and responsibilities of the individual in preventing the spread of an outbreak, and the risk to others if infection-control practices are not followed.
Provide guidance for states, localities and industry on best practices to prevent the spread of avian influenza in commercial, domestic and wild birds, and other animals.
Leveraging National Medical and Public Health Surge Capacity
Rather than generating a focal point of casualties, the medical burden of a pandemic is likely to be distributed in communities across the nation for an extended period of time. In order to save lives and limit suffering, we will:
Implement state and local public health and medical surge plans, and leverage all federal medical facilities, personnel and response capabilities to support the national surge requirement.
Activate plans to distribute medical countermeasures, including non-medical equipment and other material, from the Strategic National Stockpile and other distribution centers to federal, state and local authorities.
Address barriers to the flow of public health, medical and veterinary personnel across state and local jurisdictions to meet local shortfalls in public health, medical and veterinary capacity.
Determine the spectrum of public health, medical and veterinary surge capacity activities that the U.S. military and other government entities may be able to support during a pandemic, contingent upon primary mission requirements, and develop mechanisms to activate them.
Sustaining Infrastructure, Essential Services and the Economy
Movement of essential personnel, goods and services, and maintenance of critical infrastructure are necessary during an event that spans months in any given community. The private sector and critical infrastructure entities must respond in a manner that allows them to maintain the essential elements of their operations for a prolonged period of time, in order to prevent severe disruption of life in our communities. To ensure this, we will:
Encourage the development of coordination mechanisms across American industries to support the above activities during a pandemic.
Provide guidance to activate contingency plans to ensure that personnel are protected, that the delivery of essential goods and services is maintained, and that sectors remain functional despite significant and sustained worker absenteeism.
Determine the spectrum of infrastructure-sustainment activities that the U.S. military and other government entities may be able to support during a pandemic, contingent upon primary mission requirements, and develop mechanisms to activate them.
Ensuring Effective Risk Communication
Effective risk communication is essential to inform the public and mitigate panic. We will:
Ensure that timely, clear, coordinated messages are delivered to the American public from trained spokespersons at all levels of government and assist the governments of affected nations to do the same.
Work with state and local governments to develop guidelines to assure the public of the safety of the food supply and mitigate the risk of exposure from wildlife.
Roles and Responsibilities
Because of its unique nature, responsibility for preparedness and response to a pandemic extends across all levels of government and all segments of society. No single entity alone can prevent or mitigate the impact of a pandemic.
The Federal Government
While the Federal government plays a critical role in elements of preparedness and response to a pandemic, the success of these measures is predicated on actions taken at the individual level and in states and communities. Federal responsibilities include the following:
Advancing international preparedness, surveillance, response and containment activities.
Supporting the establishment of countermeasure stockpiles and production capacity by:
Facilitating the development of sufficient domestic production capacity for vaccines, antivirals, diagnostics and personal protective equipment to support domestic needs, and encouraging the development of production capacity around the world;
Advancing the science necessary to produce effective vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics; and
Stockpiling and coordinating the distribution of necessary countermeasures, in concert with states and other entities.
Ensuring that federal departments and agencies, including federal health care systems, have developed and exercised preparedness and response plans that take into account the potential impact of a pandemic on the federal workforce, and are configured to support state, local and private sector efforts as appropriate.
Facilitating state and local planning through funding and guidance.
Providing guidance to the private sector and public on preparedness and response planning, in conjunction with states and communities.
Lead departments have been identified for the medical response (Department of Health and Human Services), veterinary response (Department of Agriculture), international activities (Department of State) and the overall domestic incident management and Federal coordination (Department of Homeland Security). Each department is responsible for coordination of all efforts within its authorized mission, and departments are responsible for developing plans to implement this Strategy.
States and Localities
Our communities are on the front lines of a pandemic and will face many challenges in maintaining continuity of society in the face of widespread illness and increased demand on most essential government services. State and local responsibilities include the following:
Ensuring that all reasonable measures are taken to limit the spread of an outbreak within and beyond the community's borders.
Establishing comprehensive and credible preparedness and response plans that are exercised on a regular basis.
Integrating non-health entities in the planning for a pandemic, including law enforcement, utilities, city services and political leadership.
Establishing state and community-based stockpiles and distribution systems to support a comprehensive pandemic response.
Identifying key spokespersons for the community, ensuring that they are educated in risk communication, and have coordinated crisis communications plans.
Providing public education campaigns on pandemic influenza and public and private interventions.
The Private Sector and Critical Infrastructure Entities
The private sector represents an essential pillar of our society because of the essential goods and services that it provides. Moreover, it touches the majority of our population on a daily basis, through an employer-employee or vendor-customer relationship. For these reasons, it is essential that the U.S. private sector be engaged in all preparedness and response activities for a pandemic.
Critical infrastructure entities also must be engaged in planning for a pandemic because of our society's dependence upon their services. Both the private sector and critical infrastructure entities represent essential underpinnings for the functioning of American society. Responsibilities of the U.S. private sector and critical infrastructure entities include the following:
Establishing an ethic of infection control in the workplace that is reinforced during the annual influenza season, to include, if possible, options for working offsite while ill, systems to reduce infection transmission, and worker education.
Establishing contingency systems to maintain delivery of essential goods and services during times of significant and sustained worker absenteeism.
Where possible, establishing mechanisms to allow workers to provide services from home if public health officials advise against non-essential travel outside the home.
Establishing partnerships with other members of the sector to provide mutual support and maintenance of essential services during a pandemic.
Individuals and Families
The critical role of individuals and families in controlling a pandemic cannot be overstated. Modeling of the transmission of influenza vividly illustrates the impact of one individual's behavior on the spread of disease, by showing that an infection carried by one person can be transmitted to tens or hundreds of others. For this reason, individual action is perhaps the most important element of pandemic preparedness and response.
Education on pandemic preparedness for the population should begin before a pandemic, should be provided by all levels of government and the private sector, and should occur in the context of preventing the transmission of any infection, such as the annual influenza or the common cold. Responsibilities of the individual and families include:
Taking precautions to prevent the spread of infection to others if an individual or a family member has symptoms of influenza.
Being prepared to follow public health guidance that may include limitation of attendance at public gatherings and non-essential travel for several days or weeks.
Keeping supplies of materials at home, as recommended by authorities, to support essential needs of the household for several days if necessary.
International Partners
We rely upon our international partnerships, with the United Nations, international organizations and private non-profit organizations, to amplify our efforts, and will engage them on a multilateral and bilateral basis. Our international effort to contain and mitigate the effects of an outbreak of pandemic influenza is a central component of our overall strategy. In many ways, the character and quality of the U.S. response and that of our international partners may play a determining role in the severity of a pandemic.
The International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza stands in support of multinational organizations. Members of the Partnership have agreed that the following 10 principles will guide their efforts:
International cooperation to protect the lives and health of our people;
Timely and sustained high-level global political leadership to combat avian and pandemic influenza;
Transparency in reporting of influenza cases in humans and in animals caused by virus strains that have pandemic potential, to increase understanding and preparedness and especially to ensure rapid and timely response to potential outbreaks;
Immediate sharing of epidemiological data and samples with the World Health Organization (WHO) and the international community to detect and characterize the nature and evolution of any outbreaks as quickly as possible, by utilizing, where appropriate, existing networks and mechanisms;
Rapid reaction to address the first signs of accelerated transmission of H5N1 and other highly pathogenic influenza strains so that appropriate international and national resources can be brought to bear;
Prevent and contain an incipient epidemic through capacity building and in-country collaboration with international partners;
Work in a manner complementary to and supportive of expanded cooperation with and appropriate support of key multilateral organizations (including the WHO, Food and Agriculture Organization and World Organization for Animal Health);
Timely coordination of bilateral and multilateral resource allocations; dedication of domestic resources (human and financial); improvements in public awareness; and development of economic and trade contingency plans;
Increased coordination and harmonization of preparedness, prevention, response and containment activities among nations, complementing domestic and regional preparedness initiatives, and encouraging where appropriate the development of strategic regional initiatives; and
Actions based on the best available science.
Through the Partnership and other bilateral and multilateral initiatives, we will promote these principles and support the development of an international capacity to prepare, detect and respond to an influenza pandemic.
= Bush Transcript Highlights =
Wow, what a nice talk by Bush on "Avian Flu Response Plan" this morning at 10:10 EDT!!! ;D
Dang, almost "read" Novavax CEO's presentation of Novavax "Business Plan" without mentioning Novavax!!! ;)
Here it is: (scroll to bottom)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29586#bot
Reposted from dinvestor.com:
- NVAX's strong recovery yesterday (10/31) made me change my mind and buy back some shares. I didn't get a chance to access the Internet at market open, so I bought back my positions at $4.10 later in the afternoon on 10/31.
- I also bought a few shares in GNBT in the afternoon... a quasi-risky move because this company is smaller and the speculative risk is much higher. However, I've noticed that GNBT's chart has been shaping up amazingly like NVAX's so as long as NVAX is bullish, GNBT should follow through.
And in the spirit of Halloween, may November trading bring bags of treats instead of tricks!
Cheers! ;)
thanks S2W2, but i got one word for ya. LINK ;D
The White House
http://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/pandemic-influenza.html#section9
CBMX
https://us.etrade.com/e/t/invest/Story?ID=STORYID%3Detrade_2005_10_26_eng-etrade_cbs2_market_watch_eng-etrade_cbs2_market_watch_4DAF41DC-7019-4EE2-9610-5EF3C21A02A4&provider=BusinessWire
Anyone's thoughts on the Earnings guidance coming out today ? and might it even matter ? ???
i am glad i loaded the truck at 3.72 and 3.98. Because i missed the first run.
I use 2 brokers ubs and ameritrade so the 3.72 stay for long. With ameritrade i own at 3.98 there i sold half today. ::). The 3.72 portfolio i try to keep 1 year or longer. I hope i manage. :)
It's trading sideways now during lunchtime @ $4.90ish (12:00pm eastern). You guys think it'll spike around 2:00pm eastern?
Yes!!!
Get ready for stock brokers/traders "lunch discussions" about Bush's Avian Response Plan and Novavax!!! There will be after lunch spiking BUY!!!!
Bush's talk on Avian vaccine development and production sounded like Novavax CEO's conference presentations!!!
More SOLID BLUE ARROWS at Lycos I-watch!!!
My first post. Anyway, I was always under the impression that if you traded the float, you get a double in price. Nvax has traded way beyond the float several times in the last week. So why not to the moon? My guess is that there are large short positions being placed(5.00 today). If we can squeeze them out I think we'll have a stellar pop.
Prediction for the close? Run up or sell off ...
Anybody with level II?
hey guys, I have been looking a level 2 all day and it almost seems that the stock moves faster than the computer can keep up. so unpredicatable. it is definitely a roller coaster ride from hell. you really can't tell what the direction is going to be.
Live life, what is your take. I would think that the last hour will be what the big guys think it will do tomorrow. i am glued to the screen but to try and beat the market on this one is next to impossible. I would think that whatever comes out tomorrow in the press conference is already factored in. I hope we see one last day of going up if you are following the trend of the last couple of weeks of 3 days up then 3 down and now we are on the second day of up..will see...good luck to all
patriomp
NVAX - 4.45 1st support area - 4.26 2nd support
Needs to break the downsloping red trendline (descending wedge)
Support @ 4.55 , bought more at 4.57
Downward slope stopped at around $3.55. Maybe the new support level for today...
closing support at 4.51 , I think up near intraday high's tomorrow, mid- to long term should fizzle out need a good exit strategy :P
Bought more NVAX at 4.42 this am and Sold all my NVAX at 4.9 and 4.92; have an order to get back in at 4.54, but may have to pay inthe 4.60s tomorrow, as I think this will retest the high 4.90s - but not convinced its getting though 5.0 without some real news. ALso, kept 50% of my SVA so its nice to see that come back. The one that frustrates me to no-end is HOM, which I own the most of. And I got crushed today on XMSR!
I like David's VLO - been a big fan of that for a long time but dont own any now. Looking to get in on the first major pullback to 100.
ANybody check out INB? today like I suggested?
Defenderyou
Ok, I will admit my fault ... I was WRONG about the anticipated large buy spike after lunch (it never happened ... my brief and last attempt at being a foretune teller) :-\
But not too bad of a day for NVAX, right? ;D
I bought back at $3.47 and took profit around $3.70-$3.80 and bought back at $3.62 on Friday.
Today was crazy!!! I sold initially around $4.50 but what volatility!!! I bought again around $4.60's and sold around $4.80's and did 2 more buy/sell cycles and settled by buying at $4.75 then decided to hold it through tomorrow, regardless what it closed at (I know, it closed down to $4.55, but I am NOT complaining!!!) ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.270#bot
With Bush's Avian Response Plan talk this morning (I posted Bush's transcript highlights on page 9 - 9th post down from top) and even more frenzy media coverage, I wanted to be "in" for the anticipated "gap up" open tomorrow. Those that missed out on today's gain or those "just" finding out about NVAX may buy in tomorrow at "ANY PRICE" again. That's why I didn't mind the $4.75 to $4.55 drop at close. (my wife thinks I am nuts again) :D
So, let's recap for today:
After gapping up $0.16 on open, NVAX closed up at $4.55 with $0.51 (12.62%) gain with 41 million shares traded!!! Yes, of course, NVAX is still leader for the week and month volume gain with highest "Institutional ownership up last month." Nice day! ;)
Also, early morning and brief two "solid red" arrows were followed by many more "solid blue" arrows during the day. You won't see the two red arrows now because Lycos I-watch is live "streaming" report and once the data scrolls to left, you won't see it. ;)
(=Note= This "simplified and literal" Lycos I-watch expression is in response to some who questioned my "interpretation" of the data on I-watch, please, form your own opinions) ;)
Well, I do have to mention this. I had a lot of discussion yesterday and today about the anticipated "trend" of NVAX this week. As David stated last week, due to extreme volatility of NVAX right now, NVAX IS NOT TRENDABLE for the near future!
No chart trend would have predicted the spiking gain of almost $1 today! Most charts trends/technical analysis pointed to a retracement down, not a spike up!
So, I have responded to numerous emails and MB posts that we MUST take day by day with NVAX this week. We are still in the tail end of a long run of "bearish" market trend and the volatility gain/loss of NVAX is heavily influenced by what is said about the Avian flu in the media/president Bush. It may not matter that Novavax is releasing two new products in one week, if the news for Avian plays is bad.
If you read the Bush's transcript (see above link, 9th post from top), it REALLY sounds like the info the Novavax CEO has been presenting at last three conferences. hmmmmmm ;)
Until we hear something definite from Novavax PR or from the government (NIH probably), NVAX is still a very "SPECULATIVE" stock that must be watched very carefully. As the gains get larger, the risk of the stock taking a nose dive like $6 to $3.50 gets greater.
But for tonight, we celebrate again! Go NVAX!!! ;D
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.285
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) Activities
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/
The U.S. Department of Health & Human Services Pandemic Influenza Plan will be released at 9:00 a.m., November 2, 2005
Here's President Bush's "National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza"
http://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/pandemic-influenza.html#section1
Quote from: defenderyou on November 01, 2005, 06:07:52 PM
Bought more NVAX at 4.42 this am and Sold all my NVAX at 4.9 and 4.92; have an order to get back in at 4.54, but may have to pay inthe 4.60s tomorrow, as I think this will retest the high 4.90s - but not convinced its getting though 5.0 without some real news. ALso, kept 50% of my SVA so its nice to see that come back. The one that frustrates me to no-end is HOM, which I own the most of. And I got crushed today on XMSR!
I like David's VLO - been a big fan of that for a long time but dont own any now. Looking to get in on the first major pullback to 100.
ANybody check out INB? today like I suggested?
Defenderyou
I think "real news" will be your worst enemy on this one. The stock should have a "sell the news" reaction after having run up so much. It's all hype.
Oh yes....Nice volume today, looks to be headed north again after the pullback.
Novavax Bond Holders Elect to Convert $6 Million of Outstanding Notes
PR Newswire (Thu, Oct 27)
Novavax Common Stock at the per share conversion price of $5.68.
IMHO, sign of major upside to come with the price; with seasoned bond holders agreeable to convert at $5.68 share. Possibly beat earn est. next week.
Support @ $4.20...3.82...3.46
Resistance @ $5.53...5.77
Technicals
MACD is bullish
Close Above the 13-day EMA
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
23.91%above 13-day EMA
84.72%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Nov 9
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $156.36
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 11/09/2005
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform
I agree this should definately have a sell the news reaction, the run-up could be more than expected. In my opinion we will see the 6-7's before it crashes since this is the leading flu play and the news won't be over for a little while
Are you forgetting about GBNT? Several senators met with them a week ago to try to get them on the fast track too..I spoke to investor relations last week..In addition to bird flu, they also have spray insulin ready to come to market in Equador , and using their techology for bird flu is a recent development precipated at the request of the us govt!
Certainly like to know what anyone thinks about this company after doing their due diligence.
Thanks swerd96 for the link from Yahoo MB:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/11/20051101-7.html
Press Briefing on the Avian Flu by Dr. Rajeev Venkayya, Special Assistant to the President for Biological Defense Policy
Via Teleconference
1:45 P.M. EST
"DR. VENKAYYA: Thanks very much, Trent. Again, this is Rajeev Venkayya, from the Biodefense Directorate at the White House Homeland Security Council. Thanks for joining today. I'd like to give you a little bit of background on the President's announcement today, and link between the strategy that he announced and the budget submission that is going up in parallel, as well as the legislative language that's going over to the Hill to support the goals of the strategy.
We released today the national strategy for pandemic influenza, which represents a comprehensive approach that not only the U.S. government, but we expect that all levels of government, as well as the private sector, individuals and our international partners will follow in their efforts on the avian and pandemic influenza front. ....
....Turning, finally, to the Department of Health and Human Services. As you know from the discussion this morning there is, as I mentioned, about $6.6 billion there that is spread over vaccine, antivirals, surveillance activities, state and local preparedness, and general research and development. On the vaccine front, to accelerate cell culture technologies, we're looking at a $2.8 billion investment that includes accelerating the culture, as well as building out search capacity.
The reason that we're focusing on cell culture capacity here is because, to use the current technology, which the President, I think appropriately, described as old-fashioned, based in eggs and flocks of chickens, is that it's very difficult to have surge when you're talking about eggs. In other words, in order to ramp up production quickly, you've got to wait until you have a lot more chickens and eggs to do that. When you take that in conjunction with the fact that it takes a lot more vaccine to produce an immune response in a person than we see with the typical seasonal vaccine, you quickly realize that you would need a lot of chickens and a lot of eggs sitting around month after month after month, just waiting for us to use them to produce vaccine.
Cell culture technology, which is, we view, the next wave of technology that's going to come through the influenza vaccine industry -- I think the industry shares that view -- allows us to build out capacity, essentially vats that would be mothballed -- I shouldn't say, "mothballed" -- they would be used to produce other vaccines, but then when we needed them, they would be available to quickly divert to producing large quantities of vaccine. And that's what that $2.8 billion is for. ..."
Those interested in NVAX should also check out GNBT because GNBT has similar performance.
GNBT, similar to NVAX, engages in the research and development of drug delivery systems and technology. It's product include the flu vaccine and currently has plans (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/051027/099404.html) to seek Congresional support for the accelerated development of its a H5N1 avian influenza vaccine.
Check out my review of NVAX and GNBT here (http://www.dinvestor.com/blog/2005/11/hot-stock-gnbt-on-par-with-nvax.html) and let me know what you think. I currently hold GNBT. ;D
Quote from: cingross on November 01, 2005, 09:48:01 PM
Are you forgetting about GBNT? Several senators met with them a week ago to try to get them on the fast track too..I spoke to investor relations last week..In addition to bird flu, they also have spray insulin ready to come to market in Equador , and using their techology for bird flu is a recent development precipated at the request of the us govt!
Certainly like to know what anyone thinks about this company after doing their due diligence.
I hold both GBNT and NVAX. Goto GBNT Thread and read. ;)
Quote from: [D] Investor on November 01, 2005, 10:22:05 PM
Those interested in NVAX should also check out GNBT because GNBT has similar performance.
GNBT, similar to NVAX, engages in the research and development of drug delivery systems and technology. It's product include the flu vaccine and currently has plans (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/051027/099404.html) to seek Congresional support for the accelerated development of its a H5N1 avian influenza vaccine.
Check out my review of NVAX and GNBT here (http://www.dinvestor.com/blog/2005/11/hot-stock-gnbt-on-par-with-nvax.html) and let me know what you think. I currently hold GNBT. ;D
Applaud your work [D] Investor. I also checked out you link.
QuoteThe 3.72 portfolio i try to keep 1 year or longer. I hope i manage.
If you hold NVAX for one year from a $3.72 cost basis, you WILL lose money. I feel certain of that. Once the bird flu nonsense blows over it will return to previous levels. $3.72 was a nice entry for a shorter-term trade though. Don't shoot the messenger! And I could be wrong. Just think you'd do best to keep your eye on it daily. Good luck to you sir!
LukeQ
Thanks setravis for the applaud. :D
Looks like I need quite a few more posts before I can qualify for the 3SOF Stock Picking Contest! >:(
Yes, bird flu stocks are hot. NVAX is a given.
GNBT is too...
GNBT, similar to NVAX, engages in the research and development of drug delivery systems and technology. It's product include the flu vaccine and currently has plans (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/051027/099404.html) to seek Congresional support for the accelerated development of its a H5N1 avian influenza vaccine.
Check out my review of NVAX and GNBT here (http://www.dinvestor.com/blog/2005/11/hot-stock-gnbt-on-par-with-nvax.html) and let me know what you think. I currently hold GNBT. ;D
Buying Into Bird Flu Hype: Differentiating Between Stock Plays And Viable Companies
Wednesday, November 02, 2005 00:22 ET
Nov 2, 2005 (financialwire.net via COMTEX) -- (FinancialWire) (By Ant & Sons) Avian influenza, also known as bird flu, is a type of influenza virus that is hosted by birds. Current avian flu stocks include Novavax Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX), Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NASDAQ: GNBT), Acacia Research Corporation (NASDAQ: ACTG) and CombiMatrix (NASDAQ: CBMX).
Avian influenza was first identified in Italy, and it is now known to exist worldwide. The current strain, which was initially found through birds in East Asia, has only infected humans who have been exposed to infected birds. Through the migration of birds, the strain could spread through other geographic regions and is expected to reach all continents. If the virus does become transmissible from human to human, it has the potential to cause a worldwide pandemic. Because of the strain's ability to be resistant, it is extremely tough to develop a viable vaccine.
Evaluating the current situation as of late shows that there is documented evidence of being insufficiently prepared for an avian flu outbreak. This is due in part to the United States' inability to mobilize an effort stockpile and develop vaccines more quickly. As this has become a viable threat, politicians and even President Bush have gotten into the act by stating their desires to initiate an effort to stockpile and develop vaccines just in case the country's fears are met. With an increased public awareness of avian flu, as well as increased media visibility, this has posed as an opportunity for many publicly traded companies to jump on the promotion bandwagon.
For example, smaller, lesser known companies such as Acacia Research Corporation and CombiMatrix have come into the foray by launching a new comprehensive influenza DNA microarray, as well as services for the typing of influenza strains. CombiMatrix's Influenza Microarray can detect and accurately type flu strains using a protocol that requires less than four hours start to finish. While this may demonstrate potential, the marketability and actual generation of revenue remains to be seen at this point.
Another instance of this is Generex Biotechnology Corporation, which partnered with the executives of Antigen Express, Inc. to present a proposal to senators to seek support for the accelerated development of its novel vaccine for H5N1 avian influenza. As of right now, there is no indication whatsoever to really determine if the meeting would benefit the company in any way.
The company that seems to be leading this group of avian flu plays, however, is Novavax Inc. Its shares have moved higher based on an agreement with Wave Biotech, LLC to collaborate on the development of a commercial scale production process for Novavax's pandemic avian flu vaccine.
Although the World Health Organization believes that current avian flu situation is in phase three of classifying it as a pandemic, there has been limited evidence of continued human-to-human transmission. When taking this into account, it is careful to note that even if these special products and vaccines for flu do prove to be successful, it might not necessarily translate into major revenue generators for these companies to become viable entities.
Just as an increase in demand and worries about global refining capacity drew heightened speculation in the oil market, increased fears and attention of avian flu have drawn intense speculation in certain biotechnology stocks. Coming to this realization will help investors determine that these companies may just turn out to be another investment of a highly speculative nature.
Ant & Sons LLC is an independent provider of investment commentary, research, news and analysis. Founded in 2003, the company produces a suite of free membership based services for use by professionals and individual investors. This includes monthly columns such as Face Off, The Real Deal, Takes a Look and Trader's Corner. Other services include a weekly newsletter and analytic news related services through Analyst Scorecard, Ahead of the Ticker, Chart of the Week and Word on the Street. More information about the company, which partners with FinancialWire, can be found at http://www.antandsons.com.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.b30ff227229054fb04a5d44596feff260e1161d060987e36ffde83ff4f2bdf1b
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051102/nyw063.html?.v=26
Novavax Executes Definitive Agreements for $18 Million Public Offering
Wednesday November 2, 7:00 am ET
MALVERN, Pa., Nov. 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) today announced that it has entered into definitive agreements to raise $18 million through the issuance of 4,186,047 shares of its common stock at a price of $4.30 per share. The shares of common stock will be issued pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement.
ADVERTISEMENT
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC acted as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The Company currently plans to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including but not limited to i) clinical development of virus like particles (VLP)-based avian and seasonal flu vaccines, including the development of appropriate adjuvants, and demonstration of large-scale production capabilities, for such vaccines; ii) internal research and development programs, such as preclinical and clinical testing and studies of our product candidates and the development of new technologies; iii) expansion of and investment in the Company's research and development facilities, including compliance with cGMP (current General Manufacturing Practices) and GLP (General Laboratory Practices) rules and regulations and iv) other general corporate purposes. A copy of the final prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained from Dennis Genge, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Novavax, Inc., 508 Lapp Road, Malvern, PA 19355, when available.
About Novavax, Inc.
Novavax, Inc. is a product development company focused on the research, development and commercialization of products utilizing its proprietary drug delivery and biological technologies for large and growing markets. Novavax's drug delivery technologies include the micellar nanoparticle (MNP) technology which is the basis for the development of its first FDA-approved product, ESTRASORB®. In addition to MNP, Novavax drug delivery technologies include Novasomes® (paucillamellar non-phospholipid liposomes) and Sterisomes® (subcutaneous depot injection) technologies. Novavax's vaccine technologies include its virus like particle (VLP) manufacturing technology utilizing the baculovirus expression system in insect cells as well as novel vaccine adjuvants based on Novasomes and dendrimer technologies.
Statements made in this press release that state Novavax's or management's intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations, or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include but are not limited to statements regarding usage of cash, product sales, future product development and related clinical tials and future research and development, including FDA approval. Novavax's actual results could differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company, or industry results, to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among other things, the following: general economic and business conditions; ability to enter into future collaborations with industry partners, including an ESTRASORB® licensing agreement; competition; unexpected changes in technologies and technological advances; ability to obtain rights to technology; ability to obtain and enforce patents; ability to commercialize and manufacture products; ability to establish and maintain commercial-scale manufacturing capabilities; results of clinical studies; progress of research and development activities; business abilities and judgment of personnel; availability of qualified personnel; changes in, or failure to comply with, governmental regulations; the ability to obtain adequate financing in the future through product licensing, co-promotional arrangements, public or private equity financing or otherwise; and other factors referenced herein. Additional information is contained in Novavax's annual report on Form 10K for the year ended December 31, 2004 and quarterly reports on Form 10Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2005 and June 30, 2005, incorporated herein by reference. Statements made herein should be read in conjunction with Novavax's annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. Copies of these filings may be obtained by contacting Novavax at 508 Lapp Road, Malvern, PA 19355 Tel 484-913-1200 or the SEC at http://www.sec.gov.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051102/nyw063.html?.v=26
Novavax Executes Definitive Agreements for $18 Million Public Offering
Wednesday November 2, 7:00 am ET
MALVERN, Pa., Nov. 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) today announced that it has entered into definitive agreements to raise $18 million through the issuance of 4,186,047 shares of its common stock at a price of $4.30 per share. The shares of common stock will be issued pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement.
ADVERTISEMENT
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC acted as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The Company currently plans to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including but not limited to i) clinical development of virus like particles (VLP)-based avian and seasonal flu vaccines, including the development of appropriate adjuvants, and demonstration of large-scale production capabilities, for such vaccines; ii) internal research and development programs, such as preclinical and clinical testing and studies of our product candidates and the development of new technologies; iii) expansion of and investment in the Company's research and development facilities, including compliance with cGMP (current General Manufacturing Practices) and GLP (General Laboratory Practices) rules and regulations and iv) other general corporate purposes. A copy of the final prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained from Dennis Genge, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Novavax, Inc., 508 Lapp Road, Malvern, PA 19355, when available.
About Novavax, Inc.
Novavax, Inc. is a product development company focused on the research, development and commercialization of products utilizing its proprietary drug delivery and biological technologies for large and growing markets. Novavax's drug delivery technologies include the micellar nanoparticle (MNP) technology which is the basis for the development of its first FDA-approved product, ESTRASORB®. In addition to MNP, Novavax drug delivery technologies include Novasomes® (paucillamellar non-phospholipid liposomes) and Sterisomes® (subcutaneous depot injection) technologies. Novavax's vaccine technologies include its virus like particle (VLP) manufacturing technology utilizing the baculovirus expression system in insect cells as well as novel vaccine adjuvants based on Novasomes and dendrimer technologies.
Statements made in this press release that state Novavax's or management's intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations, or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include but are not limited to statements regarding usage of cash, product sales, future product development and related clinical tials and future research and development, including FDA approval. Novavax's actual results could differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company, or industry results, to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among other things, the following: general economic and business conditions; ability to enter into future collaborations with industry partners, including an ESTRASORB® licensing agreement; competition; unexpected changes in technologies and technological advances; ability to obtain rights to technology; ability to obtain and enforce patents; ability to commercialize and manufacture products; ability to establish and maintain commercial-scale manufacturing capabilities; results of clinical studies; progress of research and development activities; business abilities and judgment of personnel; availability of qualified personnel; changes in, or failure to comply with, governmental regulations; the ability to obtain adequate financing in the future through product licensing, co-promotional arrangements, public or private equity financing or otherwise; and other factors referenced herein. Additional information is contained in Novavax's annual report on Form 10K for the year ended December 31, 2004 and quarterly reports on Form 10Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2005 and June 30, 2005, incorporated herein by reference. Statements made herein should be read in conjunction with Novavax's annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. Copies of these filings may be obtained by contacting Novavax at 508 Lapp Road, Malvern, PA 19355 Tel 484-913-1200 or the SEC at http://www.sec.gov.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051102/law026.html?.v=32
CCBEF and NVAX Update the Investment Community in All-New Interview With WallSt.net
Wednesday November 2, 7:00 am ET
WallSt.net is Also Featuring an In-Depth Article Based on a Recent Interview Profiling HEB
NEW YORK, Nov. 2 /PRNewswire/ -- On October 25, Doug Mason, Chairman of Clearly Canadian Beverage Corp. (OTC Bulletin Board: CCBEF - News) updated the investment community in an all-new, exclusive interview with Wall Street Network (www.wallst.net). Interview highlights include detailed discussions on the following topics:
-- system-wide distribution agreement with Dr. Pepper/Seven-Up Bottling
Group, Inc.
-- geographic footprint, and expansion plans
-- distribution channels
-- current capitalization
-- plans to increase marketing efforts
-- upcoming strategic and financial milestones
To hear the interview in its entirety, and to read an in-depth report on the Company, visit http://wallst.net/superstock/CCBEF/ccbef.html
On October 13, Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO of Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) updated the investment community in an all-new, exclusive interview with Wall Street Network. Interview highlights include detailed discussions on the following topics:
-- advantage of the Company's Virus-Like Particle technology in vaccine
development
-- response time to mutating strains of the Avian Flu
-- timeline for clinical development of the Company's Avian Flu vaccine
-- commercialization agreement between the Company and Wave Biotech, LLC
-- product pipeline
-- upcoming strategic and financial milestones
Wall Street Network is also featuring an in-depth article based on an October 21st interview with Doug Hulse, Chief Operating Officer for Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (Amex: HEB - News). Topics covered in the article include:
-- a history of the Company and its double-stranded RNA technology
-- applications for Alferon N
-- lead drug candidate, Ampligen, and its timeline for commercialization
-- the use of Ampligen as an adjuvant in the development of Avian Flu
vaccines
-- current capitalization
-- product pipeline
-- upcoming strategic and financial milestones
To hear the interviews in their entirety, visit www.wallst.net. The interviews can be accessed by locating the respective company's ticker symbol under the appropriate exchange on the left-hand column of the homepage or by entering the respective company's ticker symbol in the Audio Search window.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051102/law026.html?.v=32
CCBEF and NVAX Update the Investment Community in All-New Interview With WallSt.net
Wednesday November 2, 7:00 am ET
WallSt.net is Also Featuring an In-Depth Article Based on a Recent Interview Profiling HEB
NEW YORK, Nov. 2 /PRNewswire/ -- On October 25, Doug Mason, Chairman of Clearly Canadian Beverage Corp. (OTC Bulletin Board: CCBEF - News) updated the investment community in an all-new, exclusive interview with Wall Street Network (www.wallst.net). Interview highlights include detailed discussions on the following topics:
-- system-wide distribution agreement with Dr. Pepper/Seven-Up Bottling
Group, Inc.
-- geographic footprint, and expansion plans
-- distribution channels
-- current capitalization
-- plans to increase marketing efforts
-- upcoming strategic and financial milestones
To hear the interview in its entirety, and to read an in-depth report on the Company, visit http://wallst.net/superstock/CCBEF/ccbef.html
On October 13, Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO of Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) updated the investment community in an all-new, exclusive interview with Wall Street Network. Interview highlights include detailed discussions on the following topics:
-- advantage of the Company's Virus-Like Particle technology in vaccine
development
-- response time to mutating strains of the Avian Flu
-- timeline for clinical development of the Company's Avian Flu vaccine
-- commercialization agreement between the Company and Wave Biotech, LLC
-- product pipeline
-- upcoming strategic and financial milestones
Wall Street Network is also featuring an in-depth article based on an October 21st interview with Doug Hulse, Chief Operating Officer for Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (Amex: HEB - News). Topics covered in the article include:
-- a history of the Company and its double-stranded RNA technology
-- applications for Alferon N
-- lead drug candidate, Ampligen, and its timeline for commercialization
-- the use of Ampligen as an adjuvant in the development of Avian Flu
vaccines
-- current capitalization
-- product pipeline
-- upcoming strategic and financial milestones
To hear the interviews in their entirety, visit www.wallst.net. The interviews can be accessed by locating the respective company's ticker symbol under the appropriate exchange on the left-hand column of the homepage or by entering the respective company's ticker symbol in the Audio Search window.
Thanks se7en for your posts!
Good morning, and good afternoon for those east of the Atlantic ocean!
So, where does this stock (NVAX) stand for today in light of all the recent news? Dang, I am still a "newbie" swing trader, but here are my thoughts on the following questions I've asked myself:
1. Why did Novavax release 4+ million shares to raise $18 million?
2. Why did NVAX dip yesterday afternoon instead of rising after the Bush's talk?
3. Should I hold/sell/buy NVAX?
4. What other good stocks should I be looking at?
1. As CEO stated in the last three conference presentations of the "new management's" Business Plan to reduce debt and increase revenue, $12.5 million deal with Esprit Pharma partnership along with bond holders' note conversion are in line with the company's "transitional phase" of implementing their Business Plan to further reduce debt and increase revenue. $18 million raised by 4+ million shares would be in line with their Business Plan and further improve the balance sheet to make Novavax even more attractive while the CEO is "actively" seeking government/corporate partnership.
Keep in mind that Avian vaccine division is a "small" long-term value creator for Novavax (but they do have a "full solution" that is "best in class!") that is not generating revenue right now. Instead, it will require more capital. I believe the company is doing the right things to manage and grow the company with their existing product lines (Estrasorb and two new products to be released in one week!) to generate revenue.
The two new product launches will require capital to promote and distribute using direct "field" sales representatives (100+ and increasing fast) and media ad campaign (trade magazine ads, etc.) and $18 million raised by the sale of additional shares will support the launch of the two new products and not pull existing capital from current projects (like Avian vaccine development). Good job! I am sure the CEO will address this issue and other updates on the upcoming November 7th conference presentation.
2. The new Fed Chairman Benanke announced that interest rate would be raised and it was raised yesterday. Friday's bullish rally turned bearish as Asian and European markets became mixed. Today, European markets are mostly in the red.
We are still in the tail end of the historical late July-September bear market. Bearish market trend continues to "haunt" us in midst of less than great US and world news (Iraq war, hurricane damages, Avian flu, interest rate hike, cooling housing boom, and now indictment inquiry of Bush). So, if NVAX was affected by the general "still" bearish market trend, then yesterday afternoon's drop doesn't look that bad.
3. As David Randolph mentioned last week, NVAX is still a very "speculative" play that is not "trendable." Although Novavax has SOLID (FDA approved, clinically proven, patents good til 2015, etc.) existing and pending product lines, current Avian related news will influence the stock price short-term.
NVAX is leading the Avian plays in the gain/volume activity, but we must be careful after two days of "stellar" gains and volume activity. Since NVAX is "speculative" for now, if you have any "selloff" concerns, they you may want to cash out and wait for more "trendable" gain activity to return. For those choosing to hold/trade NVAX during this very volatile time for NVAX in still bearish market with nervous selloffs, like myself, watch for profit taking/selloff/rebound that will probably continue for the rest of the week.
4. I am not an investor. I am a short-term swing trader with a typical trade range of 1-3 days. So I always maintain a list of 20-40 stocks that I monitor to swing trade with and "investigate and research" new prospects. Although NVAX has shown nice gain/loss activity this past week, we as traders should always keep a look out for the next group of stocks to "diversify" our gains into, to continue to trade and maximize our gains. As many of you asked, some of the stocks I have swing traded in the recent past are: VPHM, HOM, AOB, END, RGEN, PETS, ESLR, ELN, TIDE, ZENX.OB, BTUI, GNBT (parked my trade capital for 1 day), HEB, NVAX.
Be careful this morning!
Good trading!
Im out premarket... small profit... these guys are playing the dilution game :'(
will watch to see where when it settles
Looks like GNBT will be the one today on news,see GNBT post.
Sold some NVAX bought more GNBT.
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29840#msg29840
These dagum bird flu stocks have to always be soo complicated.
Thanks to some Yahoo MB's
Well, Novavax's CEO is guest speaker on CNBC @ 3:00:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/Content/CNBCTV/TV_Info/GuestList.asp
Institutional % up:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=Institutional%20Ownership%20Up%20Last%20Month
Here's my two cents:
So far during intraday, the support seems to be at around $4.20. Institutions are still buying and the 18 million raised is going to help with the new vaccine development.
In my opinion, it seems that this support is showing signs of immense potential during today's 'test'. This is one emotional rollercoaster ride, but the fundamentals seems to be very solid. I'm confident and terrifide of this stock. It's either one hell of a stock or a tanker.
From Harry Newton's Technology Investor column:
from Harry:
Bush puts aside $7.1 billion for the flu. Until we know more, Bush's plan sounds a little screwy. For example, the plan calls for spending $1.2 billion to acquire enough egg-based vaccine by 2009 to protect 20 million people against the deadly H5N1 strain of avian flu. I wonder which 20 million? I hope it's only for New York City, i.e. my family and I. The rest of you can catch the flu and croak? Of course, by the time the Feds get the vaccine to me, the avian flu virus will have mutated and what I get injected with will do me zero good. And the rest of the country will have a good laugh. It's time to stay away from flu stocks. This is getting sillier and sillier.
VICL flying today!
Well, I am not great at stock trading so take this with a grain of salt. I am sitting with 6000 shares of NVAX and I think I will stay with it. I see the secondary as a positive in that it raises capital.
1) Three institutional investors already bought the shares at $4.30 today.
2) This gives them cash for their daily expenditures and/or strengthens their balance sheet.
3) I believe NVAX will be bought our or find a big partner. Their vaccine is very valuable.
4) On a smaller note, their new products will hopefully bring in positive cash flow in the future)
5) The money coming in this quarter from Espririt (I believe $8 million) will be a positive on their income statements thereby strengthening their overall fundamentals).
By the way, Xlivelife - what website did you get that recent chart from (4 messages ago). ;)
Quote from: snowcat on November 02, 2005, 11:51:23 AM
Bush puts aside $7.1 billion for the flu. Until we know more, Bush's plan sounds a little screwy. For example, the plan calls for spending $1.2 billion to acquire enough egg-based vaccine by 2009 to protect 20 million people against the deadly H5N1 strain of avian flu.
I don't know? I thought the plan was specifically going after new technology creating cell-based vaccines that could be produced with a few weeks...not 2009.
I thought the emphasis was put on the fact that only 1 U.S. vaccine company now exists. Therefore, Pres Bush wants to provide 2.8 billion to help other U.S. vaccine companies create cell based vaccines in future development.
Depite all that...how does that affect NVAX?
Brandyjoco,
you might find the TA opinion Xlivelife used at:
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=NVAX
People mentioning the "slim jim" sideways tight range pattern in NVAX mid day trading 11/2 - looks similar to heavily traded stocks such as SIRI and LU.
Does this indicate a break out setup or is it just going to chunck sideways on heavy block trading?
News beyond this morning's stock 'dillution' or however it's seen, seems to be awaiting an afternoon cameo appearance on CNBC by NVAX Pres. - meetings in NY and DC happening today, and more details from Sec. Leavitt were supposed to be released today on Bush's plan too?
It's been a good swing trade when we've hit the right points - still learning ::)
Thanks for any opinions
http://moneycentral.msn.com/Content/CNBCTV/TV_Info/GuestList.asp
Closing Bell 3:00 PM - 5:00 PM ET
Rahul Singhvi
Novavax
President and Chief Executive
perhaps we can also get info from
http://pandemicflu.gov/
Here's another clip of information posted on Yahoo mb courtesy teddirk:
News for 'NVAX' - (DJ Novavax CEO: Aligned With President Bush's Avian-Flu Plan)
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Novavax Inc.'s (NVAX) avian flu-vaccine strategy is in line with President George W. Bush's plans to prevent a potential pandemic, Chief Executive Rahul Singhvi said in an interview on CNBC Wednesday.
"Our strategy is very much aligned with what the president has outlined," Singhvi said. "The way our technology works is we work with genes, we take the important genes out of the flu virus and clone them...They are completely safe, they are incapable of replicating in the body."
He said the company's technology allows it to work with the most emergent strain of the virus.
Early Wednesday, Novavax entered into definitive agreements to raise $18 million through the issuance of 4.18 million shares of its stock at a price of $4.30 per share.
He said that money will be funneled into avian flu-vaccine development.
-By Cynthia Koons, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2007;
[email protected](END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 02, 2005 15:28 ET (20:28 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 03 28 PM EST 11-02-05
==========
Where is everyone?... Are you still holding anything in NVAX?
I have 4000 shares...
Quote from: Se7en on November 02, 2005, 02:28:01 PM
http://moneycentral.msn.com/Content/CNBCTV/TV_Info/GuestList.asp
Closing Bell 3:00 PM - 5:00 PM ET
Rahul Singhvi
Novavax
President and Chief Executive
this guy has been taking every opportunity to get his face in public and pump NVAX while they are issuing more shares... too pumpy/dumpy for me to hold longterm... sold my position premarket and will watch NVAX for any real news not hype
Quote from: nocky on November 02, 2005, 04:22:23 PM
Quote from: Se7en on November 02, 2005, 02:28:01 PM
http://moneycentral.msn.com/Content/CNBCTV/TV_Info/GuestList.asp
Closing Bell 3:00 PM - 5:00 PM ET
Rahul Singhvi
Novavax
President and Chief Executive
this guy has been taking every opportunity to get his face in public and pump NVAX while they are issuing more shares... too pumpy/dumpy for me to hold longterm... sold my position premarket and will watch NVAX for any real news not hype
I'm out too ...
I came away with a different spin, He did not make any lofty projections just explained the research and the reason they need the capital is to put their product in the pipeline. Although I will be selling sooner than I had planned previously as the public will at somepoint get tired of hearing about bird flu news.
A comparison of the 6-week charts of both GNBT and NVAX shows that both stocks are currently fluctuating and in the process of forming a second "symmetrical triangle (http://www.chartpatterns.com/symmetricaltriangles.htm)" in the context of a strong uptrend. Symmetrical triangles often resolve themselves in the direction of the trend and should be indicators of a continuing bullish or bearish trend. Since we're in an uptrend, both stocks should be seeing another breakout with high volume soon. Now is a good time to buy and buckle your seatbelts for another smooth ride up! My [2] cents.
And since this thread also speaks of VPHM... ;)
VPHM's above average volume breakout today marked the end of a month-long of uncertainty, consolidation, and frustrations and preempts a new month of new highs. From a visual investor's perspecitve, a breakout of a "symetrical triangle (http://www.chartpatterns.com/symmetricaltriangles.htm)" formation while in an uptrend indicates the continuation of the uptrend.
VPHM is still a strong long term stock and investors holding it for month's end will see rewards. Right now is still not too late to hop onboard as VPHM has just begun to takeoff. VPHM's potential early morning drop tomorrow due to profit taking would provide an excellent opportunity to take up positions... what a great way to start off the month of Thanksgiving! My [2] cents.
Thank you for the technical chart and info. And yes, I hold VPHM as I feel it is undervalued for its strong fundamentals.
Good morning!!! I actually went to bed "early" to catch up on much needed sleep. :D
Well, as I posted yesterday pre-market, I sold NVAX and bought VICL. I sold VICL as it approached $6 before I went to work.
= Note = I believe NVAX is still not trendable because of the recent Avian/Bush "speculation." The "stellar" gains NVAX experienced, I believe, was due to the anticipated "speculative" Avian news. So, like I said, we must take each days with extreme caution. If you are not comfortable, you should cash out and wait. If you fully "REALIZE" the "SPECULATIVE" risks involved with NVAX, then trade NVAX very carefully this week!!!
I thought about holding cash until I did more research on my list of stocks afterwork last night, but saw NVAX dip. I waited til I thought NVAX hit the bottom and bought back at $4.21. When I saw a nice rebound activity to $4.41, I left for work.
NVAX closed at $3.99, down $0.56 with almost 27 million shares traded. What's interesting is that we just came down to the previous days close around $4. We went from $4.00, down to $3.59, up to $4.04, up to $4.55, then down to $3.99. Are we due for another up or down?
I believe CEO present's exposure of Novavax on any media is positive. Although stock performance has been "speculative" as influenced by Avian flu news, I believe many traders/investors will see this "temporary" gain/loss as such. As to the "real" Novavax company product lines, Estrasorb and two other products are due out soon.
Another conf. presentation on Nov 7 will give us an update on where Novavax is and headed towards. Perhaps, CEO will give an update on Avian vaccinne development as well.
As a "full on" swing trader, I chose to take another "gamble" on NVAX yesterday. It is my money and I will swing trade away. If NVAX has a nice gain, I will take profit. If NVAX doesn't gain, I'll cash out early, and wait for another rebound OR buy another stock(s) in my list of 20-40 stocks I monitor.
Take care today!
Good trading!
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=NVAX
NAVX is trending nicely above the 13 day EMA. So long as this trend holds, NAVX is a terrific long term hold (or swing) with buys near that average. The volume and price also makes it perfect for block traders too. I've been trading it constantly over the past 2 weeks and will continue to do so as long as the action and beta stays this volitile. Also a grant from the NIH is inevitable. They already have several past grants from the NIH already. So another for avian flu is likely soon.
Excellent money maker for a trader. Just excellent.
I agree with you bula !
In the worst case scenario in human terms not stock terms this company does have the tech and would be bought out so that bigger companies like Merck could manufacture mass doses.
However, I doubt we will have a bad case from what I can tell this virus in it's current form is not always deadly just deadly to those with weak immune systems just as the normal flu is. But after the hurricanes and such people are thinking about being prepared more. So, That's why this is my only bird flu play
keepsavi,
to further your point, as a trader I also do not wish for any avian flu breakout or global pandemic. That would be horrific. I am not an investor nor do I care really if this company ends up with the breakthrough cure, so long as someone does if this virus mutates. But as a trader, the "threat" and media hype is great and necessary for us to profit. It creates spectulation and market reaction. Thats all we can ask for.
BTW I just added a bit more at $4.02, average $3.86. My stop sits just under the 13 day EMA. I think this one is consolodating for another run to $6 by next week.
Hi,LIVELIFE
Thanks a lot for your wonderful work and the time you spend here!
Applaud!!!
I guess NVAX still have a chance to break out,just give him a little time.
News on the cure for bird flu - forget tamiflu!
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051103/35739.html?.v=1
NVAX is a trading stock - Lood at the "SARS" related stocks from a year ago - where are they.
VICL has almost $3 cash per share. Something to play with. But I see support at about $5.20. Who knows, maybe it will be big news again next week.
VPHM earnings on 11/7 btw
According to Hottinger's "E-Zone" Signals (http://www.hottingersignals.com/index.jsp -good site for entry and exit signals by the way) NVAX is in neutral zone at the moment - neither buy or sell.
I hope that will give us an idea of tomorrow's trading. :)
Good afternoon!!! :D Wow, last night's catch up sleep was "wonderful"
I sold NVAX on gain from open at $4.20 (I bought back at $4.21 so a "tiny" loss ;)) I bought HEB (one of 20-40 stocks I monitor) at $2.99 and sold at $3.20.
When I saw NVAX dip and I wasn't sure if HEB topped out for the day, I decided to split my position and bought 50/50 NVAX at $4.06 and HEB at $3.16.
So at close, my $0.28 gain from HEB was offset by -$0.16 loss by NVAX plus morning gain from HEB. I tell you, daytrading is really "nerve wrecking!!!" :D >:( :'(
That's why David Randolph "technically" trades "trendable" stocks...a lot more "calmer" trading!!! BTW, David sent out his "BUY" alert for TRAD this morning and it had a nice gain of $0.79 (7.27%)!
Ok, let's recap.
NVAX closed at $3.90, down $0.09 with 8.4 million shares traded. Another day of solid blue arrows at Lycos I-watch. For longs, this is positive sign that Institutions/Money Mangers are continuing to accumulate with almost little or no selling. Nice. BTW, NVAX is still the highest "Institutional ownership up last month" and volume gain leader for week and month.
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NVAX&range=7&mgp=0&x=13&y=10&i=3&hdate=
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=Institutional%20Ownership%20Up%20Last%20Month
So, do you hold/sell/buy NVAX? As I stated before, NVAX is "untrendable" right now due to "highly speculative" Avian virus issue. As previous posts indicated, NVAX is a "dream" stock to day/swing trade right now due to its volatility. I will watch the market open very closely for NVAX rebound (to take profit) and HEB profit taking sell off.
CEO will do another presentation on Monday, Nov 7th. I hope he will announce the launch of two new products and some updates/news.
Be careful tomorrow!
Hi ;) (11th post from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg30452#msg30452
Good morning!!! :D
Got more emails and discussions on whether NVAX will go up or go down... ;)
Now that Bush's talk and Avian vaccine "speculation" contract talk is dying down, I will try to "trend" this stock, although I think NVAX may still not be "trendable." If you look at the first Yahoo Technical Analysis chart with 50-10 day MA with volume, MACD and RSI, the blue oval still shows 10 MA (green line) above the 50 MA and HAS NOT started to dip down towards 50 MA (red line). RSI (red oval) is still below the 70-80 (indicating stock is not overbought). If the 10 MA begins to dip down towards 50 MA, then my recommendation would be to sell, and buy back on "true" rebound as 10 MA again moves up away from 50 MA. For day/swing traders, continue to trade on volatility (NVAX has been "dream" stock to day/swing trade with :D).
I also pulled the weekly Lycos I-watch Institutional/Money Manager activity charts with percentage pie chart. I tell you, it is very "rare" when Inst/Money Managers and probably hedge fund managers and large traders by now, are continuing to accumulate for weeks and more than a month! This is certainly a good indication. Remember that Inst/MM accumulated as NVAX went from $2 (yes, we did start from there...fond memories :D), $3, $4, $5 and even $5.50!!! And of course, they continue to accumulate as we went from $6 to $3.50 and now we are at $3.90.
What do you think? Did all the Institution/Money Managers make a BIG mistake with their millions of $$$? Or do they anticipate NVAX gain back to $7-$8 mid-term with $10-$20 long-term sell targets? Only time will tell, but I am very curious about the Inst/MM accumulation activity. I mean, there are good stocks that are gaining in price like crazy, and Inst/MM ARE NOT buying!!! What's with that? Why are Inst/MM continuing to buy NVAX as we "retail" traders are popping TUMS! :D Is there a "suppression" of price for them to continue accumulating? Are we just being "anxious and nervous" of an extended price correction that was caused by the Bush/Avian contract "speculation?"
I am still "fascinated" by Novavax as a company. Unlike many other Avian plays, Novavax has FDA approved, clinically proven, nationally distributed estrogen replacement therapy product, Estrasorb that uses "nano-particle technology" which allows small therapeutic dose administration than conventional oral (pill) administration. Yes, even though it is suspended in a "moisturizing lotion" base, female patients report "positive" feedback for the estrogen effectiveness with the added bonus of "smoother" skin! I mean, what's the downside of that?
Even though Bush/HHS Avian vaccine contracts to "many" vaccine companies, specifically NVAX has yet to happen midst of frenzy of Avian media coverage, Novavax IS launching two NEW products!!! This is great news for Novavax and I am sure the CEO will drive this point home on Monday's conference presentation.
Also, there's been a lot of discussion about NVAX being cash poor and earning's report will be bad. = TIME OUT = If anyone actually heard and read the last three conference call/presentations, CEO made it very clear that Novavax is currently going through a "transition" with the new "management team - with really nice back ground and credentials" to reduce debt and increase revenue! They "fired" King pharma who wasn't doing much for Novavax. Novavax now has a new partner for Estrasorb distribution with Esprit and $2 million cash down payment is already in the bank with $10 million by end of December of $12.5 million deal! They just raised $18 million by releasing 4+ million additional shares of NVAX. Other companies do the same as what Novavax just did (remember that companies go public to raise capital to "grow and expand?"). Who knows, may be Novavax got a bunch of calls from Institutional/Money Managers complaining that there isn't enough shares to be bought for accumulation! Hmmmmm..... perhaps. So, Novavax releases 4+ million shares...WIN/WIN?? and temporary dilution related price drop, which helps the Inst/MM even more?? Am I in the "deep end" shoveling "brown stuff" here? Think about it. ;)
Well, I think, aside from the Avian vaccine development (which BTW, CEO states that Novavax has a "full solution" that is "best in class"), Novavax is doing all the right thing for a small company transitioning to a more profittable nano-biotech-pharma. And yes, CEO is "actively" seeking government/corporate partnership/merger. I think if Novavax is making itself more attractive by improving their balance sheet for a corporate merger/buyout, then they are doing even better job than other Avian plays.
We got not only the Avain bird and human vaccine development, but also SOLID product lines with FDA approvals and patents (good til 2015) and other nano-technology based products (10+ and growing!) with CEO "wanting" to be corporate merged/bought out!!! Isthis why the Inst/MM's been accumulating like crazy? Perhaps. Only time will tell.
But, it's another trading day, and you all be careful!
Good trading!
Hi ;) (12th post from top or scroll to bottom)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg30565#msg30565
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=NVAX
The near term bottom was yesterday $3.90.
It's this simple, as long as NVAX continues to consolodate above the 13 day EMA ($3.84), this one is still a buy. My opinion, grab anything sub $4 while you can because as long as Avian Flu is a media driver, NVAX will be a trader. Add to that NVAX is well positioned to secure a NIH grant in the coming weeks or even a partnership with a large Biotech firm.
All indicators have retraced nicely, a great sign that consolodation is almost done. I've been adding anytime I can sub $4. The chart shows this one will go again soon.
I think NVAX earnings are on the 8th of this month, saw it on yahoo earnings.
I cashed out of NVAX and HEB (for now ;)) and bought SANM at $4.25 this morning.
I will buy back once solid rebound signs show trendable activity for Avian plays.
Here's the link to 3SOF SANM MB. I'll check with NVAX and post my info, from time to time.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3453.new#new
Trader567:
I never re-entered NVAX although is it gets back to 3.50 area I might change my mind. Last trade was sold all 11600 shares at 4.90 and 4.92 - thanks for the advice in any case
Defenderyou
Looks like it's time to get in again.....
It's highly speculative. However seems like a good LT stock. I've been learning my lesson on buying too early...because most of the time...i've been losing. I would wait to see if it breaks the $4.15 mark. It seems like it's a symetrical triangle ready to burst. But could burst negative. I'd watch it and wait. Some of the 'good' news hasn't really played this stock up lately. do u're DD
Good morning!
Even though I sold NVAX and HEB Friday morning, I am still fascinated by Novavax.
I did a chart analysis (I still believe NVAX and other Avian plays are not "trendable" and therefore "speculative" but here's my stab at it ;)) this morning, and with RSI flat at 60, NVAX is certainly not "overbought." If 10 MA maintains its gain above 50 MA accompanied by matching volume activity and MACD goes up to positive territory, NVAX may follow the early September "trend" and move up again.
However, because NVAX is "highly" influenced by the current frenzy Avian Bush/Contract/news coverage, whether NVAX will rebound and move up/down or remain sideways will depend on what happens to the market opinon of the Avian stocks next week.
Next week, CEO will announce two new products and update on new management's continuing "transition" - normally this is great news, but in midst the Avian Bush/HHS/NIH contract chaos and confusion, anticipated stock gain activity in response may not be realized.
Good news is that Institution/Money Managers continue to accumulate with almost little or no selling. NVAX, I believe, continues to be a long term play that has not been played out yet.
I will be watching NVAX very close again at market open on Monday. With a huge gain SANM experienced on Friday, there may be profit taking. If I sell SANM, I may buy back NVAX, or I may split my position 50/50.
Thanks for all the supportive emails! As many of you requested, I'll post how I find and monitor my 20-40 stocks and set my swing trade entry/exit targets in the following posts.
Those that want to view my chart analysis of SANM, here's the link: (scroll to bottom)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3453.new#new
Good trading!
Here's BarChart.com's composite indicators:
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=NVAX
Hi ;) (4th and 5th posts from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.330
Novavax CEO presents at 1 PM on Monday at RODMAN & RENSHAW TECHVEST 7TH ANNUAL HEALTHCARE CONFERENCE:
http://www.rodmanandrenshaw.com/rodman.asp?link=Conferences7/ConferenceSchedule&bgcolor=wht
You can listen to the webcast here:
http://www.novavax.com/
Hi all,
New to 3StocksOn Fire. Big thanks to LiveLife - your posts are very helpfull.
Last week, I've been in and out Nvax with small profit. Now, I'm in at $4 and I believe that long term it is a winner but short term you can easly swing trade.
Recently, NVAX has been added to the option trading on AMEX. How important is it to the short/long term trading?
http://sev.prnewswire.com/banking-financial-services/20051104/NYF11904112005-1.html
Gielda
Welcome to 3SOF gielda2003,
In my opinion, NVAX should be a good long term play.
But, I am a short-term swing trader who "maximizes gains" by selling on short-term profits and buying back on pullback/dip and selling again on short-term gains (typically 1-3 days or so).
If you are new to stock trading, I DO NOT recommend that you option nor margin trade.
Until you are very "experienced" (I am still a newbie since July of this year) and absolutely know what you are doing, I recommend that you only trade with your "cash" account for now. The upside potential of option/margin trading is there, but that is not what I recommend.
I do not margin/option trade. When there is an opportunity (spiking gains on market open) I will daytrade before I go to work and place my limit sell orders.
Good trading, and once again, welcome to 3SOF community of "retail" traders!
SVA seems like extemely oversold at this time...livelife, whats ur take on that...oh wait i forgot, u r a swing trader...
neverthless, throw aound ur opinions if u'd like.
thx.
Thank you for the welcome. It's a great MB :)
Yes I'm quite new (July 2003) and willing to learn. lol
I don't intend to play the option market but just being able to trade option, imo, will have a positive impact on the pps.
Gielda
vic666, here you go. I do not believe SVA is "oversold" or "overbought" with RSI below 70, but 10 MA dropping to 50 MA with decreasing volume and MACD in the negative territory do not look good for SVA.
Once SVA does "bottom" it should rebound, but I would recommend that you watch carefully for "true" bottom and rebound.
Good trading!
Quote from: LiveLife on November 05, 2005, 01:59:28 PM
(I am still a newbie since July of this year) and absolutely know what you are doing, I recommend that you only trade with your "cash" account for now.
Hi LL,
Wow, how did you manage to learn all these indicators so quickly? Can you recommend some good learning websites?
Thanks.
Well...for those who don't know how the current avian flu (H5N1) could become a human to human catastrophe. It works like this. Currently the avian flu can pass from poultry to human from only close contact. The problem is that if a person who has the normal 'winter flu' becomes infected with the H5N1 strain, then there is a great possibility that both strains will exchange some genes. The fear is that the H5N1 strain will acquire the winter flu gene that will allow it to become contagious. The odds of infection seems slim since only about 150 people were infected from the 1.5 million infected chickens. However, it only takes one person.
Thanks rurouni, :D
What I did in the month of July was, I read as many 3SOF MBs I could and focused on TA/chart trend posts (3SOF > Message Board (column on left) > Knowledge Center (scroll down) > Technical Analysis).
I also did a google search for "stock trading technical analysis" and began checking all the web pages.
Ok, as I posted earlier,for my 20-40 stock list, I use 3SOF David Randolph's stock list (current and past closed trades stocks) and top 10-30 stocks from MSN highest intraday/week/month volume gainer (MSN link below) and pull 3mos, 6mos, and 1yr TA charts (see above TA commentary charts for NVAX and SVA) and narrow down to 10-20 "first choice" and 10-20 "second choice" to make my 20-40 stocks list.
I then select 1-3 stocks that are most active gainers and I swing trade with them. Once the gain cycle has turned to loss, I move onto the next stock on my 20-40 stock list. And so on, and so on.
I use the following links on a regular basis:
One stop for stock technical analysis - just type in your stock symbol and boom, there you have all the TAs.
http://www.stockta.com/
I use barchart to get "composite indicators" table for "quick glance TA"
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=NVAX
Lycos I-watch monitors Institutional/Money Manager buy/sell requests/executions.
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NVAX&range=7&mgp=0&x=20&y=5&i=3&hdate=
I use MSN "power searches" for screen highest intraday volume gainer, week/month volume gainer and Institutional ownership gain for the month lists, this is where I pull my next 20-40 stock list stocks from.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=Intraday+High-Volume+Gainers&btnQryFrm=Go
MSN stock rating summary gives you a "quick glance" on risk/return.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/srs/srsmain.asp?Symbol=nvax
I use StockCharts to draw my commentary TA charts
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NVAX,uu[m,a]dacayyay[pb10!b50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
I'll post more info on swing trading technique I use, probably tonight/tomorrow morning.
Good trading!
Livelife...you're a genius ;D
Wow...what an incredibly quick and astute learner you are....extremely impressed by how well you have self-taught yourself in such a short period of time ;D
Really remarkable...i feel so inadequate ;D
thanks for sharing all your insights, methods and sites u use to trade...very helpful :D
take care and thanks! ;D
julia
Hi LL,
Wow!! and I mean WOW. Thanks for all your great info. and I am looking forward to learn about swing trading. Your infos are very helpful to beginners like me.
I do have other basic questions such as exit signals. Out of respect for the other members I had opened a question on the TA MB here http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3471.0 as not to further flood the NVAX MB with educational questions.
Please help anyone if you can.
Thanks in advance.
;)xlive....
I'm hidin' in the weeds, watching...got some great links from you and others on the yahoo board. That place is a zoo once the PM starts...hard to keep a thought train going.
This looks like a great site and I'll be feeling my way around it awhile before I throw my 2 cents in...you know, "eyes, ears open...mouth shut"
NVAX is wound tighter than a cheap watch, IMO a close above the $4.30 secondary price and we're off to the races...hope so, the tension's getting to everybody. If it breaks over $4.15 I guess I'll know where to find you...
vet24
Any idea how long NVAX has been on the SHO list?
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/aspx/regsho.aspx
Gielda
Wow = I am very humbled =
Really, I am not a genius!!! I am just "passing" on some great information that were passed to me by "nice, kind, experienced, etc." traders here at 3SOF and Yahoo finance MBs.
If you want to learn technical analysis of stock trading, spend some time at "3SOF Knowledge Center, Technical Analysis" (just click "message board" link on left column, scroll down to "Knowledge Center" and there you are!)
The people you should really show recognition and appreciation to are David Randolph, Frederick Ramsburg, and countless supporters of this website. They are the "real" knowledge base of 3SOF and most of the times, you will not see them post on Yahoo finance MB, but they do post at 3SOF MBs and they are an invaluable resource when it comes to stock trading.
Like them, I try to help others (especially newbies). They have answered my countless questions and emails. And their reward? For us to learn to trade effectively, successfully and enjoy this "hobby or profession" called STOCK TRADING (swing trading for this newbie :D)
David and Frederick have founded this wonderful "community forum" for us stock traders.
This October, they have gone "full-time" to support this priceless website (They quit their regular jobs to support this website full-time, and that's why the website went "premium" on October 1st of this year) and should be recognized "properly" for their very worthwhile cause.
If you benefitted and profitted from 3SOF, then you can donate (any amount) to 3SOF to allow David and Frederick continue doing what they enjoy and want to do, maintain this "community forum" for us stock traders.
Those that want the "premium" service David and Frederick offer (daily email alerts and access to premium website contents and services), you can become premium members.
Thanks again for all of your encouraging support. I'll do my best to continue being a "benefit" to 3SOF!
Good trading! :D
Welcome to 3SOF retvet24!!! Nice to have you on board!
Look, your comments and opinions are always welcome on 3SOF MB!!!
rurouni, gielda2003, and Julia, thanks but I just got home, so I'll do response posts and my follow up "swing trade" post a little later tonight.
= Disclaimer = When it comes to TA/chart trends, I am a young newbie. There are those that are far more experienced than I am (such as David Randolph ;) and many other supporters of 3SOF). Please, do check out the Knowledge Base to learn more about TA/chart reading. I am still in the process of learning, so I will make mistakes along the way. I don't want to do anything that may mislead traders into making bad trades. So, take my recommendations/analysis with "extreme" caution. And of course, always do your own research (DD - due diligence) before making any stock trades.
Good trading!
I spent the whole weekend working on my charting. ??? Lightbulbs came on, I just hope they stay lit during the "trading" session. ;D Thanks, xlivelife, for all your help. (I didn't know I could post over here without being an official member. Hopefully, I'll be able to join soon.
hudsonsgrill, glad you could join us at 3SOF!!! Welcome! :D
Yes, I too am looking at the charts! ;)
Joet asked me on SANM board to make sense of HOM chart (I made some nice gains from HOM earlier this year) and I am working on it right now.
I will post a cross-link here when I am done.
I spent quite a bit of time working on a chart at stockcharts.com and then realized that there was no way to save it. Do you have to have the subscription service to "save" your work? And how do you bring it over to this board? I wanted to show it to the "experts" to see if I'd done it right. :-[
I don't know if there's a better way of doing this, but I take a 'print screen' shot and crop the selection.
- Say I had just did my charting pur'sae. I would press alt+PrintScreen keys to make a picture copy (be sure to click on the browser with the chart to be sure that you're copying the right browser). Then I would open up a picture/photo editor (photoshop, paintshop pro, paint) and do 'edit -> paste'. This will save the picture into the software. Then I would crop some parts out (only if using photoshop or paintshop pro) and save the picture. Once saved, You can upload it to your post by selecting 'additional options'. Once selected, you just browse for the picture you created and then 'post'. Pretty simple once you do it the first time. If having any problems, just email me at
[email protected] or aim msg me at beethmoninov3. hope this helps a bit...
hudsonsgrill and kpunarc,
I press "Print screen" above the "Backspace" button and paste into Microsoft Paint (Yes, I have paintshop pro and Adobe, but MS Paint works faster) and crop > New > paste > Save As "GIF or JPEG" ... that's it!
BTW, I have finished Joet's request for HOM chart analysis. I will post "swing trade" techniques next (it's late 1:30 AM, so I'll post tomorrow) but since it follows "entry/exit" part of swing trading, I'll post my analysis of HOM here for you to "ponder" ... it really was an interesting chart!
Repost from SANM MB:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3453.new#new
Hi Joe! :D
Boy, this is a really interesting chart... well, here's my stab at it. I also posted my response at HOM MB.
First some history. I made some nice gains on HOM earlier this year. ;) When hurricane Katrina hit, hurricane plays like ZENX.OB (yes, $60 million US ACE temporary roofing contract!) and HOM, which does building restoration after the initial disaster recovery then restoration and reconstruction) all took off. Yes, HOM is one of 20-40 stocks I monitor. Recently, Avian bird flu plays like NVAX, HEB, SVA, BCRX, GNBT took off on "speculation" and I kinda lost sight of HOM.
Ok, let's look at the chart below and go over some "concrete" basics first. If the stock is actively gaining with rising volume and MACD in the positive territory with RSI below 70, then it is a definite short-term "BUY." And if all three of these criterias are the opposite with RSI above 70, then it is a definite short-term "SELL."
Well, let's go over the "less concrete" issues next. If you look at RSI for August and September, it is way above 70-80+ which indicated that the stock is "overbought" and selling should follow (purple oval), but instead of a selloff, stock price kept gaining!!! (purple box). I believe this was due to the hurricane response buy demand on the stock which drove the price up, despite the high RSI.
Next, recent volume "appears" to be increasing, but I believe that is probably "profit taking" sell volume. If you look at 10 MA, it "peaked" and flattened and begining to go down. If 10 MA approaches 50 MA, this is also a short-term "SELL" signal.
RSI is below 50, indicating that stock is not "overbought" - typically high RSI (70-80+) is a leading indicator of "sell" activity; however, MACD is in the negative territory.
So what does this all mean and what should we do on Monday?
I also posted the Technical Analysis "composite indicators" from BarChart.com.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2173.msg30941#msg30941
It looks like, short-term, HOM will fall in price. Approaching the 52 week high for any stock makes traders "nervous" and there is a selloff as the stock rises towards the 52 week high. If you look at the 1 year Yahoo chart, that's what it appears to be. Once HOM rebounds after this "nervous" selloff, if you once again see the price rise with increasing volume, MACD in positive territory and 10 MA breaking away from 50 MA, then you may see that 52 week high being challenged.
I also attached the MSN stock rating webpage that covers pro/con and risk/return.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/srs/srsmain.asp?Symbol=hom
For Monday, I would be very cautious and carefully watch HOM at market open.
Take care, I hope this helped.
Ok, moving on to swing trading and determining entry/exit points.
There's been some discussion regarding swing trading and I have an idea. In the meantime, browse the following chart posting and "practice determining" your entry/exit points of these stocks:
I posted some more commentary charts this morning for CNXT, FNSR, TMTA here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3476.new#new
And more comprehensive charts on CNTX here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1207.15#bot
It looks like there are many good stocks on the rebound for us to "swing trade" with next week!
I will continue working on determining entry/exit points for swing trading and post here.
Hi Livelife,
Your swing trade method is interesting. Has using your combination of RSI, MACD and volume worked well for you? I don't see David using RSI and MACD much.
NVAX was very bullish during its initial run and refused to retrace. Did these indicators give you the correct signal. I've been scared to swing trade such bullish stocks as the can remain "overbought" for a long time.
Any guess on where it bottoms ?
i traded this stock for the momo, now watching sidelines.
Good evening everyone! :D
= What I realized today changed everything about stock trading for me =
I spent the entire day reviewing and reading the premium 3SOF boards (3SOF, 3SOF Fast and 3 Pennies OF, Knowledge Center, Member Corner, Strategic Orientation) and public 3SOF boards (Stock Picking, Penny Stock Picking, Previous 3SOF Picks, Knowledge Center, etc. etc.).
I also did a lot of stock chart analysis at the request of many members and as I read more and more boards and did more chart analysis, I realized something - I realized that there is a "TON" of great stock trading information and analysis available at 3SOF MBs (premium and public); however, much of the "critical" and "timely" information is "scattered" among hundreds of MB threads.
I am not new to 3SOF and familiar with its layout, but it still took me several hours just to "browse" this vast "community forum library of stock trading" to obtain the information I was looking for. Can you imagine what a new visitor to this website or a newbie member would go through?
Back in July of this year, I spent the entire month reading all the material on 3SOF (dang, I am STILL reading the material), but how can a newbie stock trader (like me ;)) get to the "essential" stock trading information to start trading effectively?
Many emails and messages I received these past several weeks mostly state, "I have not been successful trading stocks and lost money" and "How can I pick good stocks and how do I determine the entry/exit points to make money?"
What I realized this weekend is the following (and it applies to me too!):
1. New and current stock traders "need" to maintain a solid and basic foundation of stock trading principles on a daily basis.
2. Regardless of market conditions (bull or bear), a "standard process" of stock screening and monitoring process must be adhered to in order to identify the qualifying stocks that can be effectively traded for profit.
3. An ongoing review of stock trading practice and continuing development of this practice must be done to continuously improve and make stock trading more effective.
To fulfill the above goals and continue my learning process of stock trading, I am going to do the following in the coming week:
Create a new MB thread under "Public 3SOF > Knowledge Base > Technical Analysis" dedicated to "objective and impartial" stock trading (yes, swing trading for maximizing gains, but will examine all trading styles (day/short-term swing/long-term) for newbies to stock trading and currents traders wanting to trade more effectively. It will attempt to "consolidate" some of the vast stock trading "knowledge base" that is contained in 3SOF.
It will be a new learning experience for me in the spirit of 3SOF ("community forum" of stock trading) and for the benefit of numerous traders who have asked for this information.
Once the basic principles are covered, another MB thread will be created in the public 3SOF to "apply" this "knowledge base" to identify, monitor and trade stocks effectively for maximized gains.
Best wishes for all of us and thank you in advance for your encouragement and support.
Good trading!
- John
logocovet and Prince market,
Right now, as we emerge from the past several months of "bearish" market trends, there are many stocks that are about to rebound very well (including NVAX). As the market transitions to "bullish" trends, our focus will shift from "Which stock is making money" to "Which stock will actualize the most gain?" and for me, "Which stock can I maximize swing trading?" ;)
I am currently working on the new Knowledge Center MB thread, which I believe will be critical for the weeks and months to come.
But, feel free to post any questions and comments here. I will respond as I take breaks from the new MB thread (it's in draft window, so you won't see it there yet) ;)
Here's my repost from CNXT board.
Thanks setravis!
I may have to do a 3-5 way diversification with SANM, CNXT, FNSR, TMTA, CBMX, and even NVAX for rebound! Decisions, decisions for Monday :D
If SANM has a nice gain on market open, I will probably take profit and do a "diversified" buy back...they all look very promising!
jpm, I did the analysis for TMTA here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3476.new#new
Quote from: LiveLife on November 06, 2005, 11:40:46 PM
Create a new MB thread under "Public 3SOF > Knowledge Base > Technical Analysis" dedicated to "objective and impartial" stock trading (yes, swing trading for maximizing gains, but will examine all trading styles (day/short-term swing/long-term) for newbies to stock trading and currents traders wanting to trade more effectively. It will attempt to "consolidate" some of the vast stock trading "knowledge base" that is contained in 3SOF.
It will be a new learning experience for me in the spirit of 3SOF ("community forum" of stock trading) and for the benefit of numerous traders who have asked for this information.
Once the basic principles are covered, another MB thread will be created in the public 3SOF to "apply" this "knowledge base" to identify, monitor and trade stocks effectively for maximized gains.
Thanks again LL! :) I read your other posts and they are all great. I also would like to thank David Randolph, Frederick Ramsburg for creating this great site and community.
LL, I am looking forward the new MB that you are creating. I am itching to joing 3SOF full membership but I believe that I still have alot to learn about the critical fundamentals of TA before I can fully comprehend all technical postings.
Applaud! :) LL :D
Again,thanks a lot for all your gteat job,all your time you spend here(Your pots,for me, will take me LLLong time to type ,not to say all the TA,charts,news......@NO CHARGE....).
After I read this post,I realize that the reason I don't do good trading is I don't work as hard as yuo do......I guess,not a lot guys here go through all the posts like what you do(not to say any TA....)
Could this be another AVII? AVII also a bird flu play tanked after earnings. The fact is that momentum plays usually behave that way after a major run up and disappointing earnings. In this case it might be worse because istead of earnings the company reports losses cosistently.
Who will hold NVAX through earnings ???? ???
I have a GTC buy in much lower than current range... I think the recent dilution capped this run and it will take some real news not hype to move higher
HEB is looking stronger IMO
JMO
I also wouldnt be surprised if they continue to use the current price range to raise more cash
I'm holding NVAX thru earnings - they make the majority of their $ from their fda approved estrogen cream. I think the report and the future of the company with the potential bird flu revenue looks bright.
On the other hand, I just have a fraction of what I purchased at $3.50ish - I made my money on this - I am just hoping for an added cherry.
Good evening!
Repost from SANM board:
As I stated, I believe SANM is a short-term swing trade for me. I sold on gains this morning (I bought in at $4.25 Friday (10,000 shares) and sold at $4.52-$4.55) and bought TMTA (26,000 shares!).
I am working on the Knowledge Center "swing trade" thread draft. I'll post link here later this week.
Good trading!
i got back into nvax at the open today thinking the rebound would happen today before the earnings and i though i may have misjudged when it looked like it would drop below 3.80 but on lower volume, seemed to find strength to get back near the $3.90 - $4 levels.
I hope this is now the start of a reversal since general avian news doesn't seem to greatly impact nvax in the last little while.
LiveLife, are you still sitting on the side lines?
stopthemadness,
I do believe that Novavax has strength as a company in the long run and it should rebound in time.
But I am in full "swing trading" mode, which means that I have to trade "actively gaining" stock on a daily basis.
After buying SANM (10,000 shares) on Friday at $4.25, I sold this morning at $4.52-$4.55. I did my chart review this weekend and thought TMTA had the best "repeatable gain cycle" of the 5 stocks I looked at, including NVAX.
I am once again "all in" with TMTA at 26,000 shares at $1.64-$1.66.
I am still working on the new "3SOF Knowledge Center" thread on swing trading. I will post later this week.
Good trading!
LiveLife, for the short term, looks like a retracement for TMTA is looming. Increasing sell volume and RSI is near 80 indicating TMTA is overbought. Retracement might shoot it back down to 1.50-1.60 support levels.
Check out ETLT for similar swing play.
Hi guys,
This is a great site and I will subscribe today. Thanks to all for posting excellent tips and explanations, I already learned a lot. As an info, some good news about Novavax:
NVAX earnings -.06
Analyst estimate was -.11
Nice to have you on board peteus! David's picks have really been on "FIRE" this week.
All of his stocks are "green" with some, like AOB buy alert yesterday really took off!
D investor, thanks for the comments!
As a "full on" swing trader, I will take profit on gains (like SANM yesterday $0.30 x 10,000 shares = $3,000 YES!!! Not too bad for one day "hold" ;)
With TMTA, I am up $0.08 x 26,000 = $2,080!
Good trading!
NVAX loss widens !!! >:( Cash out or keep ?? ???
Repost from TMTA and SANM boards:
Both TMTA and SANM seem to be "flat" today.
I sold TMTA this morning (26,000 shares at $1.70 on limit sell) and bought PAX on an "extremely short speculative" trade at $0.97 - $1.02 (43,600 shares!). I thought about daytrading PAX before I left for work this morning, but after reading fousc's post about the new CEO, I will hold for now.
TMTA and PAX are David's 3SOF picks (PAX being his "fast" 3SOF).
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3530.msg31575#msg31575
I am still writing the draft for "Knowledge Center" swing trading lessons and I'll post later this week
Good trading!
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.360#bot
who is David? where do I find his recommendations?
David Randolph and Frederick Ramsburg are founders of 3StocksOnFire.org
You can find their picks on left colum links "3 Stocks on Fire, Fast 3 Stocks on Fire, 3 Pennies on Fire" (actually, it's more than 3 stocks...about 12 for now) :D
Good trading!
i'm like you REALDEALS21,
i got back in this week looking for some positive guidance to give nvax a good kick in the butt which it desperately needs.
it just seems caught between 3.95 - 4.05 last little while.
i'm tempted to move on... unless others think a rebound is till possible.
thanks
Quote from: ad0150hi on November 08, 2005, 11:39:24 AM
who is David? where do I find his recommendations?
Actually you have to be a member to see his recommendations ;)
Wow....
This really pulled back at the opening. Seems they all have.
NVAX trading at 3.55 as I write. I think its been discounted nicely by some apparent negative commentary from the Motley Fool and will bounce back in the coming days because they had a great conference call, and today announced today that they are partnering with CBMX on bird flu, demonstrating that they are indeed actively seeking partnerships and are, in the words of the CEO, "focused on the Avian Flu" like a laser beam.
News on Roche proiducing enough Tamiflu for 55m and the Motley fool comment must be the cause.
Stopthemadness,
I think NVAX has taken a lot of punishment recently, its hard to see it going lower long term. The flu season is starting, avian flu is still spreading, etc.
It went down on dilution, negative Motley Fool article, and correction from a big spike. I would like to think that this is a bottom, so I am sticking around. The CBMX story shows that they are not resting on their laurels even one day after the conference call.
Of course, I get daily profits from AOB that keep cancelling out NVAX losses nicely, so that is another factor in my decision to hold for better days. But I once rode NVAX down to 3.34 with no other stocks offsetting HUGE losses, only to sell it at 4.60 on an average buy in of 4.06, so I have been handsomely rewarded for patience in the past too.
I made a list of my top 10 positives about the company and put it on my PDA and kept looking at them daily when my resovle was faltering looking at the message boards. Had to look at it a few times recently admittedly, but I am still in. :D
Did anyone else notice that the Fool article was an exact copy of a previous article only with some company names changed? I think NVAX uas GERN in the old article. The same acnecdote with the daughter buying biotech stocks. Weird. ???
If NVAX won't hold ...i'll be buyer to the next support ;)
Quote from: Terlisa on November 09, 2005, 08:38:16 PM
If NVAX won't hold ...i'll be buyer to the next support ;)
thats my target also.. possibly low 2's.... watching for now
About to meet the 50 day MA, good chance for a bounce there.
Who is still in NVAX or bought in today ??
I still have some on the table my friend. Didn't buy on margin.
I have bought back yesterday at $3.57 and added today at @3.05. It looks like I am back a bit to early. ::)
Next time, I'll listen to Terlisa :) :) It always makes sense to buy at support.
IMHO we should turn north soon, very soon. I cannot watch the market all day then I took my position now.
Gielda
If we go south tomorrow morning, then NVAX should bounce of the Major Support at the 50 day MA ($2.55). I'll be waiting to add to my position at $2.6.
Gielda
Good evening,
NVAX is one of my 20-40 stocks I monitor. I have been watching to see where the "bottom" will hit. With the Avian vaccine contract frenzy dying down, NVAX will become more trendable and price more representative of the nano-biotech the company is.
"When will it rebound?" has been the question many have asked. For this short-term swing trader, that rebound point is a very attractive issue. Looking at the chart below, it may look like NVAX may rebound soon. Will it happen soon? I will be watching very closely in the coming days.
Good trading!
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.new#new
I think that i may get some more if we drop much below 3, the 50mda at 2.60 or so would be a real bargain... look at i-watch http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nvax the big money is still all over this company if we believe this chart!
cheers joe
Wow, this is great news!!! Thanks ridnwind for the link from Yahoo MB!!!
NVAX got selected as Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index - NNZ component!!!
http://www.amex.com/?href=/othProd/prodInf/OpPiIndComp.jsp?Product_Symbol=NNZ
Hi LL,
The info about NVAX being the largest position in the Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index is huge.
I believe tomorrow will be a turn around day. I don't think I would be able to grap some shares at $2.6,lol
Gielda
Sorry, I meant grab
...I don't think I would be able to grap some shares at $2.6,lol...
Next time I'll use the Spellcheck ;)
Gielda
Good post about Merril Lynch Livelife. Has NVAX always been on this index or is it new? It si odd how overweight NVAX is and as far as I understand NVAX is not known as a big nanotech play.
I still hold my position in NVAX and not very happy about the drop of last 2 days. >:(
I will not sell in panic though. Am also very interested that alot of people here are thinking about taking positions here or at the 50 dma.
LT prospects seem good for NVAX. However, it has gone up alot in a very short period of time so shorts are all over it. I'll hedge my bet and put a stop below the 50dma (2.50).
Good luck all.
Hi LL,
I don't know how you do it. I am impressively reading your comments and research. GOOD POSTS!!
Here's more info on The Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index
The Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index (NNZ) provides a diversified representation of nanotechnology stocks and ADRs traded in the United States. The majority of the components are involved in the following industries: semiconductors, biotechnology, instrumentation, sensors, diagnostics, drug delivery, drug development, genomics, and materials. The Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index is an equally-weighted index comprised of 25 nanotechnology stocks.
I don't know whether NVAX was added on 11/9/05 or not, but word of this spreading will definitely be good news for NVAX! So, go "Spread the word"!!! ;D
http://www.amex.com/?href=/othProd/prodInf/OpPiIndComp.jsp?Product_Symbol=nvax
Index was created on 3/19/04 with the following companies below:
http://www.ml.com/media/42322.pdf
Wow, this is great news!!! Thanks ridnwind for the link from Yahoo MB!!!
NVAX got selected as Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index - NNZ component!!!
http://www.amex.com/?href=/othProd/prodInf/OpPiIndComp.jsp?Product_Symbol=NNZ
Now the "weeks" of accumulation by Institutional/Money Managers with little or no selling makes PERFECT SENSE!!! ;) :D ;D
Why would Institutional/Money Managers continue to buy/accumulate at $2, $3, $4, $5, $5.50+ and all the way down from $6 to $3? Now, we may know. Wow!!!
Why would Institutional/Money Managers continue to buy/accumulate at $2, $3, $4, $5, $5.50+ and all the way down from $6 to $3? Now, we may know. Wow!!!
Index was created on 3/19/04 with the following companies below:
http://www.ml.com/media/42322.pdf
This is Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index chart:
This is Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index chart:
Repost from Yahoo MB by me:
If you look at the StockChart for Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index, the "recent" profit taking is a "small bump" for the ML Nanotech Index.
The chart is very bullish, representing the overall Nanotech sector.
Look, not every stock goes straight up (check HANS $2 to $100, split 2:1, down to $40 and now back up to $67!!!)
NVAX and nanotechs had a "huge" gains the last 2 weeks and was bound to selloff. The real question is "Where is the bottom and when will it rebound?"
Let's watch the market in the coming days to see if the "nanotech sector" as a whole rebounds. If they do, NVAX and ML Nanotech Index will once again climb again.
Time will tell
Repost from Yahoo MB today by me:
If you look at the StockChart for Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index, the "recent" profit taking is a "small bump" for the ML Nanotech Index.
The chart is very bullish, representing the overall Nanotech sector.
Look, not every stock goes straight up (check HANS $2 to $100, split 2:1, down to $40 and now back up to $67!!!)
NVAX and nanotechs had a "huge" gains the last 2 weeks and was bound to selloff. The real question is "Where is the bottom and when will it rebound?"
Let's watch the market in the coming days to see if the "nanotech sector" as a whole rebounds. If they do, NVAX and ML Nanotech Index will once again climb again.
Time will tell
More solid blue arrows on Lycos I-watch this morning!
i agree we're getting back positive momentum and a rebound could be around the corner. I guess i'll wait to see if today's the start of the reversal and see if it continues it's strenth tomorrow. before jumping back in.
I think we should consider this also. Yesterday, there was a surging gain with the market (especially techy Nasdaq) and this morning there is profit taking across the board. That's expected. And I am sure NVAX and other nano-biotechs and not immune from market trend, especially with the recent NVAX drop from $6 to $3.50, buyers are undoubtly cautious.
NVAX is due for a rebound soon. I believe once the over-all market profit taking is done and the bullish market rebounds, NVAX rebound may also return.
Well, have a nice weekend! I am going out of town this morning, and I will post back Saturday evening!
Good trading!
I think we should consider this also. Yesterday, there was a surging gain with the market (especially techy Nasdaq) and this morning there is profit taking across the board. That's expected. And I am sure NVAX and other nano-biotechs and not immune from market trend, especially with the recent NVAX drop from $6 to $3.50, buyers are undoubtly cautious.
NVAX is due for a rebound soon. I believe once the over-all market profit taking is done and the bullish market rebounds, NVAX rebound may also return.
Well, have a nice weekend! I am going out of town this morning, and I will post back Saturday evening!
Good trading!
As the Avian bird flu/WHO/EU/Bush H5N1 vaccine media frenzy begins to taper, we should consider the following:
Novavax doesn't "just" produce vaccines. In fact, vaccine production is a component of Novavax. As a manufacturer of FDA approved and patented pharmaceutical products, we should start considering Novavax as a nano-biotech pharma who "also" produces DNA/cell culture based vaccines.
Looking at the latest Income Statement for the last quarter below, the numbers are improving. Since $12.5 million ($2 million down payment and $10 million by end of December) deal with Esprit did not reflect on the last quarterly report, Novavax is already in the "black" for the next quarter!
There's been much discussion on the Yahoo NVAX MB regarding tomorrow. My take is that there are good and not so good news about NVAX/Avian vaccine right now. Most seem to agree that NVAX is due for a rebound - the question is when and how much will NVAX rebound. Instead of "baseless" idle chat, we should let market dictate next week. Once again, this swing trader will be watching NVAX very close at market open.
Hi ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg32806#msg32806
NVAX being kicked out of the biotec index will probably cause some funds to dump this stock. Shaky retailers will likely follow since the bird flu stuff is getting old. Since you are a swing trader I guess you will buy on a big dip to avarage down? Does this make sense?
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051111/dcf024.html?.v=25
Thanks basheralert123 for the post from Yahoo MB:
voipssimo, I am not sure if this is the rule but if it is, then it would explain why. As to this short-term swing trader, I am watching NVAX for the much anticipated rebound. If it happens, I will swing trade NVAX. If it doesn't, then I will move on.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077111&tid=nox&sid=7077111&mid=69506
"...if the stock is under 100 Million capitilization for any 2 consecutive quarters, then the stock is removed from the index at its next review.. which it happens to be now.... So now look at the past few quarters; the stock was under 100 M cap... howerver NOW it is no longer under 100M.. so basically it's being removed for previous activity.. so what. This doesn't affect the price of the stock. The index fund can be purchased AND SHORTED both... meaning it can go up or down depending on if it's bought or sold.. just like any other stock and NVAX is just one of MANY components meaning the effect of such buying and shorting is negligible. If you cannot understand this, you're certainly having issues grasping the real world."
Also, thanks hurricanebob69 for this link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051111/dcf024.html?.v=25
"All securities are classified according to the FTSE Global Classification System(TM) as biotechnology or pharmaceutical. The securities that meet the classification criteria then must meet other Index eligibility criteria including listing on the NASDAQ National Market® and meeting minimum requirements for market value, average daily share volume and seasoning as a public company. The Index is ranked on a semi-annual basis in May and November. For more information about the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index, including eligibility criteria, visit http://www.NASDAQ.com.
As a result of the re-ranking, AEterna Zentaris, Inc. (Nasdaq: AEZS - News), Corgentech Inc. (Nasdaq: CGTK - News), Ciphergen Biosystems, Inc. (Nasdaq: CIPH - News), GTx, Inc. (Nasdaq: GTXI - News), La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company (Nasdaq: LJPC - News), Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) and PRAECIS PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED (Nasdaq: PRCSD - News) will be removed from the Index.
Thanks gaucho belgica for the link from Yahoo MB:
http://www.forbes.com/archive/forbes/2005/1114/214.html;jsessionid=KjKlWX7bGR6PESep?token=MTQgTm92IDIwMDUgMTM6NTk6MzEgKzAwMDA%3D
Thanks lariatforprofit for the link from Yahoo MB:
This is Oppenheimer report on NVAX dated Nov 11, 2005.
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/71/711/71178/items/173938/111105Oppenhei mer.pdf
Quote from: LiveLife on November 14, 2005, 08:46:53 AM
As to this short-term swing trader, I am watching NVAX for the much anticipated rebound. If it happens, I will swing trade NVAX. If it doesn't, then I will move on.
Well, I will continue to wait for NVAX rebound.
I bought TIII this morning (yes, 100% again) ;)
Good trading!
Not sure if it will reach my buy target but I see NVAX bottoming sometime late this week/early next week. The 2.50 area provides a nice place to start accumulating shares....
Decling wedge (reversal pattern) Further sell off is possible but not likely given the already "oversold condition"
NVAX appears to be on life support right now. GNBT, another flu bird stock, collpased big time today. NVAX is a better investment though. GNBT is just a garbage Pump and Dump in my opinion.
Flu Frenzy Frames Biotechs' Futures
By Althea Chang
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
11/15/2005 7:05 AM EST
Protective Approach
Elsewhere, Novavax (NVAX:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take), which has a $130 million market cap, said it's focusing its resources to develop its own bird flu vaccine. Earlier this month, the company contended that it has a "compelling solution" to a pandemic and can produce large quantities of vaccine in a short period of time.
The company says a planned secondary stock offering will help fund the production, and New Jersey-based firm Wave Biotech will manufacture it.
Another tiny firm, Generex Biotechnology (GNBT:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) (market cap $44 million) is looking to co-develop its avian influenza vaccine in China, and has proposed partnerships with the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute, Sinovac Biotech and Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/altheachang/10252816.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Hi, stocks2watch2.
We meet in the funniest places, don't we? ;)
I don't know what has been happening to poor little GNBT these last few days, but it looks like heavy manipulating, does it not?
I did however take advantage of the dip to buy some more.
If GNBT will make it on the bird-flu scare I don't know - I rather like their approach to delivery of insulin - that is my main reason to hold this stock.
Let's hope that it'll do well on it's own merit, and not on some mad hype.
(By the way...I did some heavyhanded weeding out on the yahoo-board, and that made it a lot more pleasent to read! :D )
We meet in the funniest places, don't we?
Yes we do, and I gave you an applaud for using the same member name,shows me you have nothing to hide.I think we'll be ok long term on GNBT. This was a huge relief to know we will stay listed. I've also been adding on the dips. I'm betting big on this one.I think we'll see a steady increase in pps now. I like the fact that they put out lot's of PR'S.
This might help move the bird flu stocks too.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist also said lawmakers should pass legislation by Nov. 24 to fund U.S. preparations for a possible worldwide outbreak of bird flu or some other super-influenza strain.
That timetable has important implications: President Bush has proposed stockpiling enough of the anti-flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza for 81 million people. The nation has only enough doses for 4.3 million people in stock, and can't order more until Congress approves the money for it, said Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"We need it now," she told a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
It's up as I type.
I guess people are not interested in this stock anymore.
I think it's pretty obvious by the volume that plenty of people are still worried about NVAX. Up about 15% at the moment..
What do you mean worried about the stock based on the volume ?
Excuse me, meant to say interested in.
Good day for NVAX and for me ;). I'm in the green again.
News is out:
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/051115/nvax8-k.html
Gielda
Insider buying:
EVANS GARY C (Director)
11/11/2005 5000 $3.12
11/14/2005 40000 $2.894
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001209191%2D05%2D057372%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2005%5C11%5C15%5C&CoName=NOVAVAX+INC&FormType=4&RcvdDate=11%2F15%2F2005&pdf=
hi,
nvax looked good today . it posted a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday but to me it also looked like a hammer reversal even though the body is black.todays candle broke the down trend.
looks like strong support around 3, and it has bounced off the 68 fib. at 2.73, resistance at 4.
rsi turning up above 50 and volume returned, as well as the macd starting to turn bullish.
although you can see on the swing chart below it is still printing lower bottoms and lower tops.some might want to see it print above 4.15 to be safe.
if it opened lower tomorrow and pushed above todays close of 3.49 then it might be a good short term trade .
this my newbie take on the tech chart. any comments and criticism welcomed. trying to learn and this is the best place to do it.
thanks
maxi
Nice rebound day! :D
I sold TIII this morning at $3.15-$3.17 ($0.10+ gain) and bought NVAX at $3.18 - $3.26.
You can follow this morning's trades here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.msg33150#bot
NVAX percentage back up to 8.24% on Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index - NNZ!
http://www.amex.com/?href=/othProd/prodInf/OpPiIndComp.jsp?Product_Symbol=NNZ
hi,
nvax looked good today . it posted a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday but to me it also looked like a hammer reversal even though the body is black.todays candle broke the down trend.
looks like strong support around 3, and it has bounced off the 68 fib. at 2.73, resistance at 4.
rsi turning up above 50 and volume returned, as well as the macd starting to turn bullish.
although you can see on the swing chart below it is still printing lower bottoms and lower tops.some might want to see it print above 4.15 to be safe.
if it opened lower tomorrow and pushed above todays close of 3.49 then it might be a good short term trade .
this my newbie take on the tech chart. any comments and criticism welcomed. trying to learn and this is the best place to do it.
thanks
maxi
Now factor in the latest news from China and tell me what do you get:
http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nSP213660&imageid=&cap=
UPDATE 2-China says boy tests positive for bird flu-reports
BEIJING, Nov 16 (Reuters) - A senior Chinese official says H5N1 antibodies have been detected in a nine-year-old boy in Hunan province, the first admission of a human bird flu infection in China, the South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday.
China's Health Ministry could not immediately confirm the report.
The semi-official China News Service, quoting Qi Xiaoqiu, director of the Ministry of Health's department of disease control, said the government was waiting for the results of a joint investigation with the World Health Organisation before confirming whether the boy was the first human case of avian influenza in the country.
But the China News Service did not say which strain of bird flu the boy had tested positive for.
"During the early stage, antibodies were found, but now the boy is positive to antibody tests," the news service quoted Qi as saying. The comments also were reported by Hong Kong's South China Morning Post newspaper.
"We are waiting for the advice of the WHO. The WHO has a set of procedures to confirm a case and it usually takes two laboratories to confirm."
He Junyao and his 12-year-old sister fell ill last month and were treated for pneumonia symptoms. The boy was discharged from hospital last weekend but his sister died.
Chinese officials said initial tests showed she had tested negative for bird flu.
The WHO is sending a team this week to the southern province of Hunan to investigate the cases, which China later said could not be ruled out as bird flu. The children lived close to the site of a poultry outbreak.
The H5N1 virus has killed more than 60 people elsewhere in Asia since 2003 and is endemic is poultry flocks in many parts of the region. Almost all of those who died had been in close contact with infected birds.
Health experts fear millions could be killed around the world if the virus mutates to the point where it could spread easily from person to person.
Battling to control several outbreaks of the H5N1 virus, China vowed on Tuesday to vaccinate its entire stock of 14 billion poultry, with the government footing the bill, as it scrambles to prevent more outbreaks.
It gave no timetable for the inoculation campaign.
China is also probing a possible human infection in a northeastern province, the World Health Organisation said on Monday.
I just listened to Nov 7th Techvest 7th Annual Health Care Conference presentation by CEO/President and Chairman of the board. Following are key slides from the presentation:
http://wsw.com/webcast/rrshq7/nvax/
If you are interested, you can follow the new "swing trading" MB here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.0
Key slides continued.
continued.
continued.
Continued.
Continued.
Continued.
Anybody looking to take some profits this morning?
Reuters
Roche settles dispute with Gilead
Wednesday November 16, 6:24 am ET
By Tom Armitage
ZURICH (Reuters) - The main producer of Tamiflu, the drug thought to be the best defense against a possible flu pandemic caused by bird flu, has settled a dispute with the drug's inventor over production and royalties, the companies said on Wednesday.
Governments have been seeking to stockpile the drug as a precaution against the possible outbreak of a human variant of avian flu but drug maker Roche Holding AG (ROG.VX) has come under pressure over concerns production could fall short.
Under Wednesday's deal the drug's inventor Gilead Sciences Inc (NasdaqNM:GILD - News) will get a greater say in plans to increase production of the drug by farming out parts of the process to third-party producers such as generic drug makers.
Gilead's share of the royalties from Tamiflu sales, which are expected to reach over $1 billion due to government orders, will remain unchanged, although it will no longer have to shoulder the burden of certain manufacturing costs.
"The money is not a great deal," said Claude Zehnder, market analyst at Swiss bank ZKB said. "But it is certainly a good thing that they have agreed this amicably."
The settlement also involves Roche paying the U.S. firm around $62.5 million in reimbursements for so-called cost of goods adjustments backdated to the start of 2004.
Investors in the Swiss drugmaker had feared that the dispute, which broke out in June, could weigh on the firm's shares or scupper Tamiflu sales.
Roche's participation certificates were 0.4 percent higher at 194.40 Swiss francs by 0806 GMT, in a flat Swiss market.
Gilead threatened in June to end a deal signed in 1996 under which Roche got an exclusive license to manufacture and sell the antiviral drug worldwide.
The U.S. firm claimed Roche had failed to market the drug properly, particularly in the United States, and had not launched the drug as a treatment for seasonal flu in other countries.
If Gilead had won, all rights to the drug would have reverted back to the U.S. firm.
Roche has come under pressure from governments around the world to increase its production capacity for the treatment and said last month that it would consider allowing other parties, such as generic drugmakers, to produce the remedy.
Gilead will also have a greater say in selling Tamiflu as a seasonal flu treatment and will have the option to co-promote the drug in specialized areas in the United States. However, it will not co-promote the drug in 2006, it said.
Roche said that Gilead's royalties would remain unchanged, with the U.S. firm receiving a cut of between 14 and 22 percent based on Roche's annual net sales of the drug.
This would work out at 18 to 19 percent for 2005, the firms said. Roche has already sold 859 million Swiss francs worth of Tamiflu in the first nine months of 2005.
Roche will pay Gilead the $62.5 million in royalty reimbursements and has said that the U.S. firm could keep $18.2 million which Roche had paid in protest over a dispute on royalty calculations for sales in 2001 to 2003.
EXCLUSIVE REPORTS
RSS | Reprints | E-mail Alerts | Printable Version | Email Story
From the November 11, 2005 print edition
Holly Springs tops Roche's list
Giant drug firm wants to build $750M plant to fulfill flu vaccine demand
Amanda Jones
HOLLY SPRINGS - Swiss drug giant Roche has identified the Triangle as the top location in North Carolina for the construction of a $750 million plant to produce Tamiflu, an anti-viral treatment for the flu.
Recent Company News
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Roche has hired a site consultant to aid in its search, which has included locales across North Carolina. Sources say the company has identified an industrial park in Holly Springs as its favorite.
No decision has been made, though, and a Roche spokesman did not respond to requests for information, including whether the company is looking in other states.
The Roche search is being sped up by national and international concern over the possibility of a bird flu pandemic. The company is not alone in planning a new production facility, but no others are known to be looking in North Carolina.
Roche already has U.S. Food & Drug Administration approval to build a Tamiflu production facility in the United States. The company announced Nov. 7 that it would increase production of Tamiflu to make 300 million doses of the drug annually by 2007, a tenfold increase in production since 2004.
Even so, Roche's stockpiles will not be able to fulfill all orders if a flu pandemic should occur. To help fill the supply gap, the company is negotiating with Mylan Laboratories and other generic drug makers to bump up production of Tamiflu in 2006.
Mylan has a history in the Triangle. It moved the headquarters of its Mylan Bertek Pharmaceuticals subsidiary to Durham in 2001 and shut down the Durham operations in June. Mylan has about three years remaining on its lease at Keystone corporate park for laboratory and office space where it had employed 100 people.
Roche has the exclusive manufacturing patent for Tamiflu through 2016. A course of the oral drug costs about $60 to $80 and has a shelf life of five years. The company expects sales of Tamiflu to triple in 2005 to as much as $925 million.
Other companies are working to get new production facilities up and running.
Novartis, which recently acquired the remaining shares of flu vaccine maker Chiron, is considering building a plant in the United States, where it has a $62.5 million government contract to supply pre-pandemic H5N1 influenza vaccine.
» Continued
Page: 1 | 2
© 2005 American City Business Journals Inc. Add RSS Headl
ok, back in at $3.50. ready for another roller coaster ride!
Insider buying today.Goodluck trading :)
FORM 4
Check this box if no longer subject to Section 16. Form 4 or Form 5 obligations may continue. See Instruction 1(b).
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN BENEFICIAL OWNERSHIP
Filed pursuant to Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Section 17(a) of the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935 or Section 30(h) of the Investment Company Act of 1940 OMB APPROVAL
OMB Number: 3235-0287
Expires: January 31, 2005
Estimated average burden hours per response... 0.5
1. Name and Address of Reporting Person *
EVANS GARY C
2. Issuer Name and Ticker or Trading Symbol
NOVAVAX INC [ NVAX ] 5. Relationship of Reporting Person(s) to Issuer
(Check all applicable)
__ X __ Director _____ 10% Owner
_____ Officer (give title below) _____ Other (specify below)
(Last) (First) (Middle)
508 LAPP ROAD 3. Date of Earliest Transaction (Month/Day/Year)
11/11/2005
(Street)
MALVERN, PA 19355 4. If Amendment, Date Original Filed(Month/Day/Year)
6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing(Check Applicable Line)
__ X __ Form filed by One Reporting Person
_____ Form filed by More than One Reporting Person
(City) (State) (Zip)
Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Acquired, Disposed of, or Beneficially Owned 1.Title of Security
(Instr. 3) 2. Transaction Date (Month/Day/Year) 2A. Deemed Execution Date, if any (Month/Day/Year) 3. Transaction Code
(Instr. 8) 4. Securities Acquired (A) or Disposed of (D)
(Instr. 3, 4 and 5) 5. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction(s)
(Instr. 3 and 4) 6. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I)
(Instr. 4) 7. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership
(Instr. 4)
Code V Amount (A) or (D) Price
Common Stock ($.01 par value) 11/11/2005 P 5,000 A $ 3.12 548,300 D
Common Stock ($.01 par value) 11/14/2005 P 40,000 A $ 2.894 588,300 D
Table II - Derivative Securities Acquired, Disposed of, or Beneficially Owned
( e.g. , puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security
(Instr. 3) 2. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 3. Transaction Date (Month/Day/Year) 3A. Deemed Execution Date, if any (Month/Day/Year) 4. Transaction Code
(Instr. 8) 5. Number of Derivative Securities Acquired (A) or Disposed of (D)
(Instr. 3, 4, and 5) 6. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date
(Month/Day/Year) 7. Title and Amount of Underlying Securities
(Instr. 3 and 4) 8. Price of Derivative Security
(Instr. 5) 9. Number of Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction(s)
(Instr. 4) 10. Ownership Form of Derivative Security: Direct (D) or Indirect (I)
(Instr. 4) 11. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership
(Instr. 4)
Code V (A) (D) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares
Reporting Owners Reporting Owner Name / Address Relationships
Director 10% Owner Officer Other
EVANS GARY C
508 LAPP ROAD
MALVERN, PA 19355 X
Signatures Dennis W. Genge Attorney-in-Fact 11/15/2005
** Signature of Reporting Person Date
Repost from Yahoo MB today:
ketchdawind,
I am a swing trader who is more concerned about day to day stock trend than long term performance of a stock.
However, Novavax has been doing some "nice" work to improve their balance sheet and to make the company very "attractive" for corporate partnership/merger - and the CEO has been actively seeking such business venture.
At the present, things have improved for Novavax and I don't see any "blemish" that can hold Novavax back. The worrisome debt problem is gone. New management team is transitioning well. They have cash on hand and cash flow is improving. They are working on ongoing licensing of their products to other national pharmaceutical companies to market their products, instead of selling "direct retail"
With recent price correction and "rebound" of NVAX stock, technicals are improving and I am very bullish on NVAX.
I don't use any "special" software. I use Yahoo Technical Analysis, stockta.com, StockChart Sharp Chart, Lycos I-watch, and MSN volume intraday/week/month gainer and BarChart TA composite indicator to form my opinion and use "basic, not elite" Scottrade account ($7/trade!).
Yes, I am a "full on" swing trader, so I will take profit whenever an opportunity is presented, only to buy back more shares on dip.
Good trading!
Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index - NNZ increased their holding percentage of NVAX up from 8.24% to 8.38%
http://www.amex.com/?href=/othProd/prodInf/OpPiIndComp.jsp?Product_Symbol=NNZ
Are you sure those minute changes in the % are actually buys? I was thinking it might just have to do with the daily fluctuations of the stock.
Anyone have any thoughts on NVAX?
Hi to all involved here is my thoughts on NVAX. Excellant long term and probably short term plays.I have made three post on this thread on page 29 that will give some positive reasons to hold and buy.Good luck trading to all :)here is copy of most important parts.Look at the date of the insider buying by the Director on 11-11&11-14.Usually when an insider buys it can take anywhere from 2 weeks to 6 monyhs for the reaction shows. It depends on how long you're willing to hold to reap the rewards.
Reuters
Roche settles dispute with Gilead
Wednesday November 16, 6:24 am ET
By Tom Armitage
Other companies are working to get new production facilities up and running.
Novartis, which recently acquired the remaining shares of flu vaccine maker Chiron, is considering building a plant in the United States, where it has a $62.5 million government contract to supply pre-pandemic H5N1 influenza vaccine.
Name and Address of Reporting Person *
EVANS GARY C
2. Issuer Name and Ticker or Trading Symbol
NOVAVAX INC [ NVAX ] 5. Relationship of Reporting Person(s) to Issuer
(Check all applicable)
__ X __ Director _____ 10% Owner
_____ Officer (give title below) _____ Other (specify below)
(Last) (First) (Middle)
508 LAPP ROAD 3. Date of Earliest Transaction (Month/Day/Year)
11/11/2005
(Street)
MALVERN, PA 19355 4. If Amendment, Date Original Filed(Month/Day/Year)
6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing(Check Applicable Line)
__ X __ Form filed by One Reporting Person
_____ Form filed by More than One Reporting Person
(City) (State) (Zip)
Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Acquired, Disposed of, or Beneficially Owned 1.Title of Security
(Instr. 3) 2. Transaction Date (Month/Day/Year) 2A. Deemed Execution Date, if any (Month/Day/Year) 3. Transaction Code
(Instr. 4. Securities Acquired (A) or Disposed of (D)
(Instr. 3, 4 and 5) 5. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction(s)
(Instr. 3 and 4) 6. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I)
(Instr. 4) 7. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership
(Instr. 4)
Code V Amount (A) or (D) Price
Common Stock ($.01 par value) 11/11/2005 P 5,000 A $ 3.12 548,300 D
Common Stock ($.01 par value) 11/14/2005 P 40,000 A $ 2.894 588,300 D
guess i got in a little too early... i was hoping the profit taking was over.
or...
are we just heading down? and yesterday was just a blip?
LiveLife,
any comments on today's action?
stopthemadness,
I wasn't planning to post my "take" on NVAX tonight because what I think will undoubtedly make a lot of people certainly upset and angry. But I believe some of you (like me) may need to hear this, so here it is.
After weeks of solid blue Institutional/Money Manager activity with almost little or no selling, today there was a day long solid red activity in blocks of 100K - 200K.
I posted in the past that when I see Inst/MMs start selling, that I would sell also.
I am back in "full" swing trade mode, so I held cash several times as NVAX took profit and sold off. Each time I sold NVAX, I quietly "hoped" that NVAX would rally back and rebound back to $4, $5, $6 range. I mean, could all of the Inst/MMs be wrong? Their unwillingness to sell kept my hope going, and I truly believed that the profit taking and selloff were just a temporary price correction. You could see this level of conviction by the number and comprehensiveness of my posts with NVAX here.
I posted in the "swing trade" MB this morning that due to this "emotional and personal" attachment to Novavax, yesterday I chose to buy back NVAX instead of CDE (see comparison intraday chart NVAX vs CDE) and missed out on around $4,000 gain and worse yet, took several thousand dollars of loss with NVAX: (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.30#bot)
I got approval from my employer yesterday to work part-time so I can trade from market open (6:30 AM PST) to around noon, and today was my first "real" day of daytrading. As I traded frantically to make up the loss of yesterday, I began to realize that I am a stock trader, not an investor of Novavax. This point was made "painfully" as I watched the intraday chart for NVAX and my heart sank as I saw the solid red arrows and bars show up on Lycos I-watch charts.
Although CDE gained intraday, I felt very "uneasy" all day.
Will I buy back NVAX in the future? You bet! If the rebound activity is there, I will do it tomorrow, to swing trade NVAX! But I will do it as a swing trader, not as an investor of Novavax.
It's okay. I took a hit when AOB tanked sharply recently. But keep up the good work. Hard work pays off and no pain no gain! ;D
LiveLife,
I thought institutions bought for $4.30 a week or two ago.
Why pay more attention to yesterdays activity and not the transaction from the other week ?
2ez,
I am sure there are still a lot of Institutional/Money Managers still holding NVAX shares. But I have posted in earlier posts that weeks of accumulation with little or no selling was very "unusual" but I would recommend sell once the Inst/MMs start selling. They started selling all day yesterday and today. (see Lycos I-watch charts below for yesterday and today)
I am a short-term swing trader and cannot afford to wait through the up/down swings. In fact, I must ride the up/down swings to maximize my gains.
Swing trading (and now daytrading) must be pursued aggressively to make the most of your trades in achieving the goal of making positive gains with each swing trade, to end up with more gains overall than holding through the ups and downs. That's why I created a separate swing trade MB thread:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.45#bot
Have a nice weekend and good trading!
FYI, after today's activity, I will be checking out VRA on Monday's market open.
Anybody here catch all the strange action in NVAX at the close? Dow Jones announced a "Market on Close Sell" 186K shares, like the average investor is supposed to know what that means. I googled all over and cant really make heads or tails of it still. The actual title of the "article" was
"Mkt on Close Sell Imbalance: Shrs 186101"
and there was no text to the article.
Now the Yahoo MB was buzzing about this because there was a breif price spike 5 minutes before this news message, and then there appeared to be 400K odd shares traded around 4 PM and 4:01 PM.
Anyway, I just want to figure out what all this means to NVAX, maybe someone here can give an opinion.
tokyopua, maybe this will "shed some light" on your questons:
Repost from Yahoo MB
"Solved!!: Mystery Volume at Close
by: here2learnyoualesson
11/18/05 11:37 pm
Msg: 76707 of 76734
For those of you who saw the large volume and didn't know what to attribute it to (ie whether it was a buy or sell), here is the answer. This is cut and pasted from the NASDAQ website regarding the Nasdaq Biotech Index rebalancing, refer to the last sentence (Link at bottom)
Semi-annual Ranking Review
The Index Securities are evaluated semi-annually. Securities currently within the Index must meet the maintenance criteria of $100 million in market capitalization and 50,000 shares average daily trading volume. Index securities not meeting the maintenance criteria are retained in the Index provided that such security met the maintenance criteria in the previous semi-annual ranking. Securities not meeting the maintenance criteria for two consecutive rankings are removed. Changes will occur after the close of trading on the third Friday in May and November using March and September closing price and volume data and April and October publicly available total share outstanding data.
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaqbiotech_activity.stm"
Repost from Yahoo MB
Quote:
"The easy money has been made in NVAX...i.e. when it went to 6 dollars....the main problem is that there are too many companies involved in avian flu projects including some large ones like Chiron and Roche. The money is spread around too thinly. Look at a 3 month chart...as other companies get some visibility for avian flu...the volume on NVAX has slowly declined... give this board facts and links about NVAX..."
My response to above quote
As quoted, here is another such company involved in the Avian issue:
(http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh55089_2005-11-18_21-38-33_n18135190_newsml)
"NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Viragen Inc. (VRA.A: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said preliminary in-vitro studies of its drug Multiferon showed that it was effective against the virus that causes avian flu, sending shares of the biotech company up more than 80 percent. More at link"
If you are interested in following my swing trade on VRA, here's the swing trade MB link: (3rd post from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.60
2ez, as anticipated, Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index - NNZ percentage holding for NVAX went down from 8.38%, but they are still holding significant amount of NVAX shares.
LiveLife
I hope to clarify something. Your statement that Merrill Lynch's Nanotech index ownership position in nvax has gone from 8.38% to 7.54% might indicate to some that they are reducing their position. You keep posting these changes as though this might be your perception also. I think it's important to state that this percentage deals with the change in market value not share ownership. When the value of NVAX goes up it obviously becomes a larger % of the total portfolio or vice-versa. Merrill is not trading the stock. If their opinion changes regarding this stock's viability they will eliminate the entire position. Many people don't understand that index funds have strict rules regarding acquisition of positions and sector weighting. Once a security is deemed to qua;ify for the index it will not be sold unless it's corporate integrity changes. Therefore you need only to concern yourself with the continued retention in this index. Hope this helps,might save you a little posting time. I would wish you good luck in your trading but hard work always outperforms good luck and you certainly work hard. That will lead to success.
1reilly,
I stand corrected.
Yes, the percentage of NVAX holding of ML Index is "proportional" to percentage of other stocks held.
If MB Index sells another stock position, then the NVAX percentage will increase and vise versa. Just becaue the NVAX percentage went down doesn't mean ML Index "sold" NVAX shares, ML Index could have bought more of another stock position.
Thanks for pointing this out!
LL
I May be sending a duplicate reply, it's too early. I have not made myself clear. Let's say you have $100,000 portfolio and you weight each stock at 5% so you have 20 positions. Now hypothetically, don't worry about the math just the thought. One stock goes from 3 to 6 all other stocks stay the same. The portfolio value has gone up but only one stock is now more that 5% of the portfolio in market value. the other stocks are now less than 5% of the portfolio. This why many index funds have automatic rebalancing mechanisms. However rebalacing is defined and announced. NVAX percentage of the portfolio is a product of its daily market value and that value's relationship to overall porfolio value. Don't consider sales of any kind consider mkt value of NVAX. Hope this helps
Mike
LL,
Yes, that makes sense, I actually did see that post last night and replied that I think he was 100% right.
It will be interesting to see what happens on Monday, my guess is that most of the effect already has occured as the stock already tumbled on the mere news of NVAX being taken off the biotech index.
Repost from Yahoo MB:
roksteady33's quote:
"...that is not the purpose of my posts. Unlike you I do not think in devious terms...
There is no ulterior motive and I don't attend mysterious and secretive meetings in some hidden bunker somewhere!
I NEVER write a single post trying to "suck someone in!" Take it or leave it. I really don't care!
These boards are simply a way for me to express my excitement and beliefs in an investment. I post nothing but my true feelings regarding a stock I own and the reasons I own it. Really quite simple. Argue all you want...but that's the simple unadulterated reasons behind my posts.
p.s.....GO NVAX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "
My reply
"Yes, like rok stated, Yahoo finance MBs are "public forums" to express one's opinion. Often "all kinds" of topics and comments get posted on finance MBs, and that's why I maintain my home MBs at 3SOF for those that want a collection of "hopefully" useful and factual information.
I don't bash or trash on Yahoo finance, Raging Bull nor 3SOF MBs. I do try to share "pertinent information" as I see them, but I am not perfect and not always right (and I openly posted that fact on 3SOF MB).
I try to post links with all of my 3SOF MB postings so viewer can verify my source and form their own opinion.
I am a newbie stock trader (since July of this year) who is just trying to learn to be more effective stock trader. That's all.
I too have hopes for NVAX, but there are over 20,000 publicly traded stocks that are making GOOD gains every single day!!!
If you are Novavx investors, then you will hold "long" for months and years.
If you are trend investor, then you will follow the trendable stocks.
If you are stock swing traders and allow yourself to "miss out" of these great gains (AOB, HOM, CDE, BIOM, VRA, and for Roth IRA accounts HANS) then you may want to "reclassify" yourself as day/swing/trend trader or long/"buy and hold" investor.
I started the new swing trading 3SOF MB not for "long" investing. As I disclosed on the first post of swing trading MB thread, swing trading is fast, objective and done with a "small" percentage of your overall portfolio. David Randolph uses one stock position of his 3SOF portfolio to swing trade (Fast 3SOF folder with 1-3 stocks).
Good trading!"
well... still holding onto this puppy.
anyway, i thought i'd post this message just so this thread doesn't get relagated to page 2!
it's a whole new ball game.
stopthemadness,
actually, NVAX looks ready for another gain cycle and I may be buying NVAX tomorrow if there is sign of another rebound (the swing trader in me ;)). I watched NVAX all day today and it held above previous close despite some selling pressure.
Time will tell tomorrow, but with bullish market trends returning there are a lot of good stocks in rebound or gaining pattern (just look at HANS today!) and as a swing trader, I must participate in these "swings."
Here's some more NVAX info. Thanks jmbaugh123 for the link from Yahoo MB!
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/Holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&symbol=VPHM&symbol=NVAX&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdingssummary&selected=NVAX
Here's Lycos I-watch activity for today and week. Looking good, and I will follow the Institutional/Money Manager's lead and look to buy back in tomorrow for another swing trade with NVAX. ;)
Is NVAX REALLY trendable again (as you said earlier)? Look at GNBT, just fell below 50 DMA on 3-mo chart. NVAX has a similar chart... so will NVAX follow through? Both charts look bearish on a downtrend. RSI and MACD indicators don't look too great for these 2 stocks and they're bit volatile. Even if you swing trade, you might get max $1/share... why take such risk to look at these two stocks when you have many other ones on fire as well? The time for bird flu stocks such as NVAX and GNBT will come... just not yet. My 2 cents. Bigger caps are on fire lately... check out AAPL, YHOO, KOMG.
shaping up to be a pretty good day for nvax. looks like a lot of buys at 3.29/3.30 today.
plus iwatch shows institutions are back in. follow the smart money, isn't that the saying around here?
Another day of solid blue arrows at Lycos I-watch with Institutional percentage increased to 2%! Chart trend looks to be approaching another rebound.
Any longs here?
Recent activities indicate accumulation ~$3. I believe we will keep close to 50 day MA until we get some news.
GLTA,
Gielda
gielda2003,
Sorry, but I've been swing trading other stocks (GEPT was my last swing trade) while I wait for NVAX's "true" rebound activity. When it does, you will see me swing trade NVAX again.
Right now, I am "fractional day/swing trading" with GZFX.OB:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2047.30
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.135#bot
Good trading!
Thanks LL and GLTY with your pics.
Gielda
If the action in NVAX is anything like it has been in the past for similar big time momentum stocks (although the situation is different due to the fact its a bird flu stock), I think NVAX should be seeing a big time bounce off the 50 ma.
I'm losing slightly on a position I've had the past few days, but I think the risk/reward at this point is in favor of the long side. It'll have to make up it's mind pretty soon, though...
I'm down just a bit myself waiting for the rebound.....
Do not worry about NVAX. It will be fine. It went up on the hype and now pulled back to the support at 50 day MA. It will bounce off it or will keep close until news arrive. Look at the positive signs:
Institutional buy at $4.30 (4.2 mln shares)
Insider buy at ~$3 (45 000 shares)
Increased short interest
flu season
GLTA,
Gielda
Nice bounce off MA 50 for NVAX !! Up .20 now ! ;D
NVAX appears to be off to the races..
currently bid 3.30: ask: 3.31
NVAX rebounded as expected :). Tomorrow the uptrend shell continue.
It could go up and touch ~$4 (next resistance). All IMHO.
GLTA,
Gielda
I'm buying back NVAX today. It is way too much volume for the stock to just lay down and die.
I think specific theme stocks will be back in play soon (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3848.new#new).
I will buy back the whole Bird Flu Group that I held a couple of months ago: NVAX, AVII and HEB. I don't want to miss the runner, so I'll buy the 3 of them.
additional information:
NVAX: Short Interest UP 139.4% to 6.0M in Nov 2005
Friday , November 25, 2005 13:19 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Novavax, Inc. (NasdaqNM: NVAX) INCREASED 139.4% to 5,950,643 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.
SYMBOL OCTOBER NOVEMBER CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
NVAX 2,485,929 5,950,643 +3,464,714 +139.37% 1
Based on NVAX's 20-day average daily share volume of 12,666,680, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Hi, David:
I bought it yesterday on its break-out.
I am going to make another 75% total return this year.
The biggest loss for me this year is EYII.OB (I lost 70% in $0.1, out $0.03!!!!)
There is one month left and the market will have another run in December after one week of rest.
Good morning!
Repost from swing trading board: (8th post from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.165
Hi Doyle, I not sure if that news would be sufficient to push CBMX price up. You may want to consider NVAX (BTW, David Randolph is buying back NVAX after yesterday's gains) instead of CBMX. NVAX dropped from $6 to $3 recently and I have been waiting for a rebound since. I have bought NVAX several times in the past two weeks, only to sell because the "true" rebound activity was not evident.
Yesterday, it went from $3 to $3.27 (see chart) with volume support. Also, it appears Institutional/Money Managers continued to accumulate NVAX during the past month as NVAX dropped with little selling (see Lycos I-watch chart),and I may buy back NVAX to swing trade.
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NVAX&range=30&mgp=0&x=22&y=12&i=3&hdate=
As to GZFX, yesterday's CEO conference call with wallst.net is great news! 25% subscription increase only since November 1st is very timely positive announcement that a lot of GZFX holders have known and was waiting to hear announced publicly from GameZnFlix.
Both Berlin and Frankfurt markets sustained GameZnFlix's 12% gain today despite the fact that European markets are mostly down today (see charts) and this may indicate US market performance for GZFX today. I will be watching both GZFX and NVAX very closely at market open.
Good trading!
Looks like MACD about to go positive:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NVAX,uu[h,a]dacayyay[pd20,2!b50][vc6 0][iUa12,26,9!Lk14]&pref=G
And we have a confirmed bullish engulfing pattern:
http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs62.asp
Though its only an indicator of institutional interest, there were also strong buy signs today:
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nvax
In fact, its been like that all month, it would appear the stock is under accumulation
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NVAX&range=30&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=13&y=14
Of the three bird flu stocks in the portfolio today, NVAX would seem to have the most potential, and if you substitute HEB and AVII them above they seem to draw no institutional interest. Of course, I bought all of them, so I hope they all do well :D
I am with you guys @ 3.42 a little bit late ;)
Thanks for your inputs :)
Don't you just love these fast moving stocks? I bought yesterday and I already have a 3.89% profit. That's something I can work with.
This trade on NVAX is so speculative that I have to obey simple rules. For a start, I won't let a profit turn into a loss, which means that if the stock prints my buying price, which was $3.34, I'm out.
Now, exiting with a profit ... that's not something to consider at this stage, I should and I will hope for my profit to continue growing.
This way I have limited risk and unlimited profit potential. That's the way it should always be ...
Among all bird-flu related companies,
I only put money in NVAX and made day trading on BCRX few times per day (yesterday and today). I entered position for BCRX yesterday after open because the good news from BCRX.
They got ROCHE investment money.
IN CHINA' ALMOST ALL THE VACCINE SHOTS used ROCHE's vaccine.
I spent about 100 yuan and took a shot last month using ROCHE's vaccine (flu vaccine) also.
Most of my money is in semi stocks now: ATML, ACLS, SWKS, RFMD, ONNN, SSTI, PXLW, LEXR, just name a few.
NVAX's bounce off the 50 ma went well, and I'm wondering if I should take some profits. The last time I asked myself this, it turned out I should've indeed sold at that point.
But, for some reason I have a good feeling NVAX will push it's way through 4. If it can, I see a +15-20% day.
I'm a little bit concerned about the volume drying up on the 3rd day of this rally, but I'll continue to hold.
Currently NVAX sits at bid 3.70 ask 3.71
IMHO, some profit taking will be at ~$4. It's the next resistance and It's a quick 30%. But I think it will be a quick and small one. If we break $4 we will challenge new highs very soon.
GLTA Longs,
Gielda
Don't forget that CBMX works in corelation with NVAX to find the vaccine...
NEWS 4 CBMX--->CombiMatrix Enters into Distribution Agreement with Singapore-Based Cell Sciences
I went back looking for the reasons that lead me to buy back these biotech stocks in the first place. IT was the fact that probably the bull run in the general market is coming to an end (not yet, possibly the SPX has some more 15 to 20 points of upside) and these plays did well when the general market was down a couple of months ago.
Now, the general market was up strongly yesterday and the 3 «defensive» stocks that I hold were up even more than the general market. I call that relative strength and it tells me the view of the future from the smart money.
There has been some insider buying of NVAX when the stock was down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. I have an hard time analyzing biotech companies fundamentals (because generally they are not based in revenues and profits, but on product development stages and others, I still have to study that - remember, all my life I've been primarily a futures trader, not a stock trader). Due to this, I should trust my general market overview and technical analysis of individual stocks.
My general market overview tells me these 3 stocks advance has just started, it still has a long way to go. Technically we've had a 3rd consecutive white candle and a higher low on the chart. Will we get an higher high, above $3.94? We'll see, I hope so.
My trading plan for today on NVAX remains the same, I won't lose on this trade, so I'll put a stop loss order at my buying price, which was $3.34 and will let the profits run.
Hopefully the Bird Flu awareness segment on 60 minutes tonight will boost NVAX this week and beyond....
I was almost stopped out on Friday, on the terrible sell off NVAX had. But I wasn't, so I still hold it.
I'm going to trust insider buying to give a little more flexibility to NVAX, because I believe the time for it to rise big is almost coming, but it isn't exactly now. As you can check on the chart below, the price is developing a symmetrical triangle.
Support stands at $3.03 and resistance at $3.75. I'll continue holding for as long as the stock doesn't close below the lower limit of this symmetrical triangle pattern.
Re-take position this morning at $3.42 due to upgrade at 10:47am:
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC initiated research coverage of Novavax, Inc. (NASDQ: NVAX- News) with a Market Outperform Rating and a 12-month price target $6.00. Navdeep Jaikaria, PH.D, Senior Biotechnology Analyst, issued the report.
It seems that the break-out will be on up not down. So far, the volume is about 4.3 million. If it traded 11 million, the price may be pushed up to $4.0 ($0.70).
RUNNING ON NEWS................
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Announces Investment Opinion on Novavax, Inc.
Monday December 5, 10:47 am ET
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Initiates Coverage of Novavax, Inc. With A Market Outperform Rating
Analyst Sets 12 Month Target Price of $6.00
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 5, 2005--Rodman & Renshaw, LLC initiated research coverage of Novavax, Inc. (NASDQ: NVAX- News) with a Market Outperform Rating and a 12-month price target $6.00. Navdeep Jaikaria, PH.D, Senior Biotechnology Analyst, issued the report.
ADVERTISEMENT
About Rodman & Renshaw, LLC
Rodman & Renshaw is a privately held, full-service investment bank committed to fostering the long-term success of growth companies through capital raising, strategic advice, insightful research, and the development of institutional support. More information is available at www.rodmanandrenshaw.com
None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Novavax, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).
As of October 31, 2005, neither Rodman & Renshaw, LLC nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Novavax, Inc.
Neither the research analyst nor Rodman & Renshaw, LLC has any material conflict of interest with Novavax, Inc., of which the research analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC or its affiliates did receive compensation from Novavax, Inc. for investment banking services within the last twelve months and Rodman & Renshaw, LLC intends to seek compensation from Novavax, Inc. for investment banking services within three months, following publication of the research report.
Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor Rodman & Renshaw, LLC serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of Novavax, Inc.
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC makes a market in Novavax, Inc. securities as of the date of this research report.
The above information is not intended to be used as a primary basis of investment decisions. It is not a representation by Rodman & Renshaw, LLC or an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Before investing in Novavax, Inc., you should carefully consider your risk tolerance and financial objectives.
Just broke the 3.75 resistance ! Into the blue skies now ! ;D We will see $4 + this week !
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Announces Investment Opinion on Novavax, Inc.
Monday December 5, 10:47 am ET
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Initiates Coverage of Novavax, Inc. With A Market Outperform Rating
Analyst Sets 12 Month Target Price of $6.00
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 5, 2005--Rodman & Renshaw, LLC initiated research coverage of Novavax, Inc. (NASDQ: NVAX- News) with a Market Outperform Rating and a 12-month price target $6.00. Navdeep Jaikaria, PH.D, Senior Biotechnology Analyst, issued the report.
>:D >:D >:D
Out at $3.91 and took $0.50 profit for 10k shares.
May enter it later. Need to have some sleep. Very happy with my trading. Took some position for LEXR. Semi sector will be down for few days then up again. May be it will be traded in a range in December. I do not see much down risk rivght now as the earnings are quite good for semi sector.
I'm thinking we may have failed to break the 3.94 / 4 resistance and we may retrace to the 50 ma. Considering selling half or all my position in order to get a better price, and avoid watching my profits dissappear.
Any opinions?
I'm out at $3.88.
Will reload at 50 MA.
GLTA,
Gielda
The news of an upgrade for NVAX really moved the stock: Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Initiates Coverage of Novavax, Inc. With A Market Outperform Rating - Analyst Sets 12 Month Target Price of $6.00 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051205/20051205005663.html?.v=1)
I really would like to read the reasoning behind this upgrade. I don't feel comfortable with it, here's why:
1) «Rodman & Renshaw, LLC or its affiliates did receive compensation from Novavax, Inc. for investment banking services within the last twelve months and Rodman & Renshaw, LLC intends to seek compensation from Novavax, Inc. for investment banking services within three months, following publication of the research report.»
2) «Rodman & Renshaw, LLC makes a market in Novavax, Inc. securities as of the date of this research report.»
3) «Novavax to raise $18M in stock sale
Wednesday November 2, 10:06 am ET
Novavax Inc. entered into definitive agreements Wednesday to raise $18 million through the sale of 4.2 million shares of common stock at $4.30 per share
The Malvern, Pa., biopharmaceutical company plans to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including clinical development of avian and seasonal flu vaccines, internal research and the expansion of the company's research and development facilities.
Rodman & Renshaw acted as the exclusive placement agent for the Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX - News) offering. The stock will be sold under the terms of the company's effective shelf registration statement.
Published November 2, 2005 by the Philadelphia Business Journal»
Probably the short term reason was that people that bought those 4.2 million shares at $4.30 were upset with the stock at $3 - $3.50. But I don't think they used the upgrade to dump those 4.2 million shares on open market investors, because they were still losing, right? It is hard to convince just one man to take a loss, imagine a crowd.
A guy at the Yahoo board made a study about this Rodman & Renshaw, and actually they did pretty well on their private placements, except for NVAX, read here if you want: Message on Yahoo Board (http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077111&tid=nox&sid=7077111&mid=88567)
So, I have negatives and positives for the stock, but no conclusion.
Why was it down 4.5% in after hours trading, anybody knows? Some people are talking it is because of a delay in government funding, but I didn't find the news anywhere.
Anyway, I must think of basic conditions and of what led me to buy this stock in the first place (insider buying and demand for specific theme stocks in the near future). Can I see an ugly drop from my buying price? Yes, I can, but the upside is also huge.
So, here's what I'll do:
- I'll continue holding for as long as the stock is set to close above the ascending trendline on the chart below, which for today stands at $3.08.
Bio sector is quite hot recently. In addition to SPEX, some our previous picks made big moves recently and may continue the uptrend. ELN is one of them.
See the chart:
In addition to Bio sector, gold sector is also very hot these days.
The leaders are GBN, GRZ, MMG, AEM, MRB, BMD, ...
Here is one chart: AEM
You're right shawFund, ELN and the gold sector are hot :)
A congressional testimony yesterday revealed the government's plan to fight an impending avian flu pandemic:
Congressional Testimony: Avian Flu (http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077111&tid=nox&sid=7077111&mid=89394&thr=89394&cur=89394&dir=d)
I would like to highlight this:
«The initial component of this strategy is to increase the number of domestic manufacturers of traditional egg-based influenza vaccines; only one currently exists within the United States. Doing so will allow the United States to manufacture a 20 million course pre-pandemic vaccine stockpile by 2009, without disrupting the production of annual seasonal influenza vaccine. In the event that a pandemic appears imminent or earlier if circumstances warrant we could use this pre-pandemic vaccine to immunize healthcare workers, front-line responders, vaccine-manufacturing personnel, and others critical to the pandemic response. With the addition of the domestic infrastructure required to produce the pre-pandemic vaccine, egg-based production capacity will be able to provide an additional 60 million courses of vaccine within six months of the emergence of a pandemic.
Egg-based production alone, however, cannot bring us to our goal of having the surge capacity in the United States to produce 300 million courses of vaccine in a six-month time frame. Instead, the best hope for acquiring a vaccine manufacturing capacity in the United States that we could to ramp up rapidly on short notice lies in expanding and accelerating our investment in non- egg-based technologies, specifically cell-based influenza vaccines. Much of the investment in vaccines outlined in the HHS Plan goes toward this initiative. The proposed investments will allow creation of new domestic facilities that would provide the surge capacity to manufacture approximately 240 million vaccine courses within six months of a pandemic outbreak. »
NVAX uses a non egg based technology:
«About Virus-Like Particle (VLP) Technology
Novavax's VLP vaccine approach uses recombinant DNA technology to create components of the influenza virus in structures optimized to elicit a protective immune response. The three dimensional virus like structures are designed to give protection without the risk of infection and without the addition of chemical adjuvants. Novavax's proprietary process produces vaccines aseptically, reduces contamination risk and leads to high, cost-effective yields.»
I'll continue with my plan of holding for as long as the stock closes above the short term ascending trendline. For today that trendline stands at $3.11.
I've been holding and adding ELN in the 10's and low 11's. 15 may be a short term target but medium range I expect to see it back in the mid 20's and above.
Prfsr Hal
Something clicked with NVAX.
Currently bid 3.84 ask 3.85.
Of course, right after I sold half my position at 3.68.
The director of Nvax Gary Evans purchased 50,000 shares. Stock up .33
15:39 NVAX Novavax files 8-K announcing the creation of a new Government Relations Committee of the Board of Directors (3.91 +0.41) -Update-
In today's 8-K: "Novavax, Inc. has created a new Government Relations Committee of the Board of Directors to assist the company with respect to the development and funding of its on-going avian flu and seasonal flu vaccine programs. John O. Marsh, Jr., former Congressman, Counselor (with Cabinet rank) to President Gerald Ford and Secretary of the Army, is Chairman of the new committee, which is comprised of four members. Through the assistance of the committee and legal counsel and third party consultants retained by the committee, Novavax has met with numerous members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate and their staff over the past several weeks. The purpose of the committee is to monitor legislative and regulatory initiatives and guide management of the company in pursuing research and development funding specifically relating to vaccines as well as the company's other current and future products and product development efforts."
From the Dow Jones Wire....
SOURCE: Form 4
ISSUER: NOVAVAX INC
SYMBOL: NVAX
FILER: EVANS GARY C
TITLE: Director
DATE TRANSACTION SHARES PRICE VALUE
12/7/05 Purchase 50,000 $3.60 $180,000
OWNERSHIP: 638,300 (Direct)
The Form 4 is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by insiders
to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases
and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.
Insider Data Source: The Washington Service
(
[email protected] or 301-913-5100)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-08-05 1329ET
13:29 120805
Does anyone know if Rodman & Renshaw have strong ties with any large pharmas or biotechs out there? I've been scouring the internet to see if there are any strong ties and the only one I can come up with is Amgen (check groups.google.com). God knows that Amgen has more money to burn than most in the industry. Not to start any crazy rumors, but if there was one company that could easily partner/acquire Novavax, it would be them.
(http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=NVAX&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=1&maval=20%2C50&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&size=2&state=8&sid=15780&style=320&time=7&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=4447&mocktick=1)
higher high and higher low, this looks a buy here. IMO
Quote from: Prfsr Hal on December 08, 2005, 11:37:32 AM
I've been holding and adding ELN in the 10's and low 11's. 15 may be a short term target but medium range I expect to see it back in the mid 20's and above.
Prfsr Hal
I wrote about ELN at the Stock Picking Board, if I held it I would keep it but at this level I'm not a buyer. Everybody is long and expecting the same news now. But I agree with you, there's more upside potential to it.
Nice speculation RichL74, but NVAX doesn't need it :)
Insiders continue to buy, Gary Evans, director at the company, bought 50,000 shares at $3.498 and 50,000 more at $3.60. Now, checking the latest 8-K report from the company, filed yesterday just before the close with the SEC, it reads:
«Novavax, Inc. has created a new Government Relations Committee of the Board of Directors to assist the company with respect to the development and funding of its on-going avian flu and seasonal flu vaccine programs. John O. Marsh, Jr., former Congressman, Counselor (with Cabinet rank) to President Gerald Ford and Secretary of the Army, is Chairman of the new committee, which is comprised of four members. Through the assistance of the committee and legal counsel and third party consultants retained by the committee, Novavax has met with numerous members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate and their staff over the past several weeks.
The purpose of the committee is to monitor legislative and regulatory initiatives and guide management of the company in pursuing research and development funding specifically relating to vaccines as well as the company's other current and future products and product development efforts. The committee also will be responsible, among other things, for assisting management of the company in communicating, working with and educating local, regional and national legislators and regulators on the efforts of, and issues of interest to, Novavax. »
You know why this director is buying. He knows massive public funding will go to NVAX to address the avian flu possible upcoming pandemic. The government's plan is to spend $6.7B in 2006 for this, let's see how much goes to NVAX, which has a market cap of just $190M at this point.
I'll continue to be long and strong NVAX, if the stock breaks $3.94 on the upside watch for a huge run 8)
Hi all,
My family and I have been sick since last Friday and haven't been able to keep up all the postings.
I did finalize and revised the stock trading template as I mentioned in the swing trading MB:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.225
I hope this tool will benefit the 3SOF members and visitors!
Nice gain today.
Interesting angle on using low dose estradiol in late stage breast cancer. Novavax produces estradiol in transdermal and oral forms.
WEDNESDAY, Dec. 7 (HealthDay News) -- It sounds like a paradox, and it is: Even though estrogen can trigger the growth of breast cancer cells, small doses of the hormone can also help kill tumor cells.
In fact, low-dose estrogen may help breast cancer patients who've become resistant to therapies that work by blocking the hormone.
"It's all counterintuitive," said V. Craig Jordan, the Alfred G. Knudson Chair of Cancer Research at the Fox Chase Cancer Center in Philadelphia. Jordan is widely hailed as the "father of tamoxifen" for his efforts in developing the estrogen-blocking drug that helps prevent breast cancer recurrence.
If estrogen is given at a specific time, he said, "instead of stimulating the growth [of breast cancer cells], it sees these dysfunctional aberrant cancer cells and instead of telling them to grow, tells them to die."
Jordan's team has published a series of papers in the scientific literature over the last few years, showing that is in fact the case.
..........
The study was conducted using breast cancer cell lines resistant to estrogen withdrawal. These cells underwent cell death when treated with very small concentrations of estradiol. The estrogen was 100 percent effective in killing the cancer cells, Jordan said.
Kill rates were higher in cells treated with estradiol, compared to those treated with fulvestrant, an estrogen-blocker, or cells from an untreated control group. Jordan's team also injected estrogen-treated cancer cells into mice, resulting in complete tumor regression.
............
Jordan said his team hopes to start clinical trials involving low-dose estradiol soon. "This is a true example of things we find in the laboratory that we can apply to patients very quickly," he said.
Women with breast cancer who have undergone treatment and then are put on the estrogen-blocking therapies often stop responding, Jordan said. "About 50,000 women [in the U.S.] a year have this drug-resistance problem," he estimated. "We'd probably be able to help a third of those" with the estrogen treatment, he added.
http://www.northshorelij.com/body.cfm?id=302&articleid=529523
http://www.jncicancerspectrum.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/jnci;97/23/1746
Good write up by Senator Frist (from great state of Tennessee)
http://frist.senate.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=Speeches.Detail&Speech_id=322
4. Vaccines
Fourth, vaccines are our best line of defense—for prevention. Yet, unfortunately, until we identify the strain—which we can do only when sustained human-to-human transmission occurs—we can not begin to produce a targeted, fully effective vaccine. With our current grossly inadequate vaccine manufacturing capacity, it could take as long as a whole year to achieve "bug to drug"—that's the window of time between first identifying the specific strain and manufacturing a vaccine available for distribution. In a time of pandemic, that's an unacceptable wait.
We have a dangerously inadequate vaccine manufacturing base in this country. Why? Bottom-line: there's so little profit and so much uncertainty in vaccine manufacturing today.
Thirty years ago there were 24 vaccine manufacturers. Today there are only 5...and only 1 on U.S. soil (Sanofi Pasteur).
..........
How do we grow our manufacturing base?
• We can immediately begin by increasing the annual market for the seasonal flu vaccine. The most we've ever sold in a year is 83 million doses, but by recommending that a larger percentage of the population receive the annual vaccine, we can increase the demand for vaccines and incentivize manufacturers to enter the market.
• We should target tax credits to increase manufacturing capacity, streamline regulations, and offer balanced, sensible liability protection for manufacturers to make these life-saving emergency medicines.
• Together these will lay the groundwork for a quicker "bug-to-drug" timeframe.
5. Research and Development
5th is research and development.
Vaccines and antivirals our best tools for the present. But research is our best hope for the future. We must harness the best minds in academia, and in the public and private sectors. We need to bring them together to form a "Manhattan Project for the 21st Century" which can help us better defend against naturally occurring, accidental, and intentional threats — including infectious diseases.
One example is targeted research for a cell-based flu vaccine. By investing in cell-based manufacturing technology, rather than relying on antiquated egg-based technology, the window for bug to drug can be cut from a year to less than six months. With tens of thousands of people dying every week, every moment counts.
NVAX broke the $3.94 horizontal resistance level on the upside and that's quite bullish. Volume was above average on the breakout. This was a breakaway gap (it occurs when there's a gap up over a resistance level, without touching it) so there's no need to fill it.
Fundamentals and technicals are working in tandem on NVAX, I'll continue holding the stock for the foreseeable future.
Novavax Shares Up After Marsh Announcement
Friday December 9, 11:04 am ET
Novavax Shares Rise After Tapping Former Rep. John O. Marsh to Lead Bird-Flu Lobbying Effort
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051209/novavax_mover.html?.v=1
NEW YORK (AP) -- Novavax Inc. shares jumped Friday after the biotech company said former Congressman John O. Marsh would lead a four-member committee in lobbying the government for support in development of its avian flu vaccine.
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The Malvern, Pa.-based company is developing a number of vaccines to protect humans against the avian flu virus H5N1, which has killed some 70 people in Asia. Novavax announced in September it would collaborate with Somerset, N.J.-based Wave Biotech to develop a way to produce its Virus-Like Particle avian flu vaccine on a commercial scale.
Now, Novavax hopes Marsh and others appointed to its new Government Relations Committee can help persuade the government for research and development assistance. Marsh served in Congress between 1963 to 1971, and was also a counselor to President Gerald Ford.
"The purpose of the committee is to monitor legislative and regulatory initiatives and guide management of the company in pursuing research and development funding specifically relating to vaccines as well as the company's other current and future products and product development efforts," Novavax said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. "The committee also will be responsible, among other things, for assisting management of the company in communicating, working with and educating local, regional and national legislators and regulators on the efforts of, and issues of interest to, Novavax."
An "even break" for NVAX, but $0.02 gain after hour trading. As RSI approaches 70-80, it should indicate a "sell" signal.
This article: Novavax Shares Up After Marsh Announcement (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051209/novavax_mover.html?.v=1) together with this other Congressional Testimony: Avian Flu (http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077111&tid=nox&sid=7077111&mid=89394&thr=89394&cur=89394&dir=d) will probably continue to fuel speculation that massive government funding is coming to NVAX.
I'll continue to buy the rumor (in this case hold, since I already bought) so later I can sell the fact.
What up NVAX'ers (http://mdteague.com/FlaminDevil)
Today was amazing. I almost sold a number of times, but it kept going up. The candlestick is very bullish, but it wasnt 100% clear why the stock went up so much. I am trying to form a plan for tomorrow, and hopefully David will have some input on the premium board tomorrow, but I am wondering what others here think about the stock after the runnup? It seems to me the drivers for the stock today were:
1.) Announcement of a licensing extension (apparently worth about $1M, so not huge news compared to the Estrasorb deal)
2.) Short squeeze started from this news
3.) Continuation of recent good news (insider buying, government lobbying committee)
4.) Buzz about government funding
My thought is that without further news, the stock hits another resistance at $5 or $5.10. What do people here think?
Nice gain for NVAX today. As RSI rises above 70, look out for profit taking.
NVAX
We know how NVAX is capable of surprising on the upside (a surprise would be a breakout above $6) and then collapse. The way I see this trade evolving is a classic buy the rumor, sell the news thing.
The rumor is pretty well founded, the government has $6.7B to spend on Avian Flu related companies in 2006 and NVAX is very well positioned to get a chunk of that money. It joined a team of highly influential people to lobby Washington to give NVAX some of the money.
Insiders and institutions are buying NVAX, so probably everything is going as planned.
My trading plan is simple: continue to hold until the news is out. Then not only take profits but sell NVAX short. Remember, «buy the rumor, sell the fact».
Profit taking today.
NVAX went down yesterday because it rose too much on the previous day. Period.
The rumor of massive public funding for this company will certainly continue to fuel the rise, I'll continue with my plan of holding until the news is out.
I think there's only one thing moving NVAX now: the expectation of massive public funding for the company to fight the possible Bird Flu Pandemic.
I always said it doesn't matter all that much, at this point and for the share price, if the disease will indeed spread across the globe or not (I hope not), what matters is if people believe it will and what they are going to do about it.
The $6.7B package the US government approved to address this issue (the government wants to make sure there is capacity to make 240 million avian flu vaccines in 6 months - they already assured 60 million, don't worry, if the disease hits America there will be 1 vaccine for every American).
Now I tell you, without this speculation NVAX would probably be worth about $1 to $2.
I'll continue waiting for the news to hit the wires, to then see a big gap up and that's where I'll take profits and possibly, depending on the news and the magnitude of the rise, I'll hit the short button.
One thing we have to know about a buy the rumor, sell the fact type of trade is that the share price should continue going up to keep confirming the rumor. If the rumor is getting traction and close to being news, insiders and others would buy so the stock should go up.
If it doesn't, if it goes down, reality is getting away from the rumor, from the projected news, so one should sell with whatever profit he has.
So here's my trading plan for NVAX:
1) Sell the fact when there is one;
2) Sell if the stock is set to close below the red ascending trendline on the chart below, which for today stands at $3.85.
Quote from: David Randolph on December 16, 2005, 07:23:39 AM
So here's my trading plan for NVAX:
1) Sell the fact when there is one;
Would that be selling even if the news hit during the day?
Quote from: ASR831 on December 16, 2005, 09:44:36 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on December 16, 2005, 07:23:39 AM
So here's my trading plan for NVAX:
1) Sell the fact when there is one;
Would that be selling even if the news hit during the day?
Good question, the answer is no. If the fact comes out with the session opened the stock will rally until the end of the day and gap up the following session. That's where I'll sell.
Quote from: David Randolph on December 16, 2005, 11:00:08 AM
Quote from: ASR831 on December 16, 2005, 09:44:36 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on December 16, 2005, 07:23:39 AM
So here's my trading plan for NVAX:
1) Sell the fact when there is one;
Would that be selling even if the news hit during the day?
Good question, the answer is no. If the fact comes out with the session opened the stock will rally until the end of the day and gap up the following session. That's where I'll sell.
That is exactly happened to FORD today (Friday).
I like the look of this weekly chart. Of course it likely does not mean much for a stock like NVAX.
Now we have $3.78 B in federal funding to prepare for a possible bird flu pandemic:
Congress seeks $3.8 billion for avian flu
(http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051219/pl_nm/birdflu_funding_congress_dc_1;_ylt=As5uMML3BWwNSpLAgq26rXSTvyIi;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl)
«The Senate had wanted $8 billion, and President Bush last month requested $7 billion but faced resistance from fiscal conservatives.»
So, the money isn't as much as it could have been, but still it is a lot of money. The question now is: how much of it will go to NVAX?
I don't know, but NVAX is making important lobbying efforts to get a big chunk:
«Novavax, Inc. has created a new Government Relations Committee of the Board of Directors to assist the company with respect to the development and funding of its on-going avian flu and seasonal flu vaccine programs. John O. Marsh, Jr., former Congressman, Counselor (with Cabinet rank) to President Gerald Ford and Secretary of the Army, is Chairman of the new committee, which is comprised of four members. Through the assistance of the committee and legal counsel and third party consultants retained by the committee, Novavax has met with numerous members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate and their staff over the past several weeks.
The purpose of the committee is to monitor legislative and regulatory initiatives and guide management of the company in pursuing research and development funding specifically relating to vaccines as well as the company's other current and future products and product development efforts. The committee also will be responsible, among other things, for assisting management of the company in communicating, working with and educating local, regional and national legislators and regulators on the efforts of, and issues of interest to, Novavax.»
The news I've been talking about isn't the above, that the bill has passed, the news I'm looking for is the exact amount of money that will go to NVAX.
Today that news is closer than it was, though it can be for less money.
I'll continue with my plan of holding until the news is out, or I'll sell if the stock is set to close below the red ascending trendline, which for today stands at $3.9
still a lot of action brewing here
We have this news on the political front:
Effort to attach drilling to defense bill meets resistance in Senate (http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/13444448.htm)
The highlight for NVAX is: «Democrats came in for harsh criticism themselves for holding up the defense spending bill, which includes equipment for the troops as well as $29 billion for Hurricane Katrina relief, $3.8 billion to prepare for an avian flu pandemic and $2 billion to help low-income people pay their heating bills.»
The rumor is that a nice chunk of these $3.8 B will go to NVAX. NVAX has a market cap of just $222.47M, so it can be pretty significant.
NVAX looks to be a safe play in a dangerous market. I'll continue with my trading plan:
1) Sell after the news comes out (not on an intraday basis, wait for the next open)
2) Sell if the stock is set to close below the red ascending trendline on the chart below, which for today stands at $4.
Oh boy, oh boy, it looks like NVAX is losing its shine. Will it get the money from the government, will it not?
Possibly nobody knows, not even company's insiders. As traders we need to work with and get used to uncertainty. Without uncertainty probably there's no profit opportunity.
The stock has strong short term support at the $3.94-$4.02 area. If it holds this area on close, I'll continue holding (it would be a good thing if insiders defend the $4 level).
In fact, if NVAX is set to close below $4.02 tomorrow (the red ascending trendline) I'll take my profits and move on. What else can I do, but to hope for larger gains and at the same time protect some of my profits?
Quote from: David Randolph on December 20, 2005, 07:26:14 PM
The stock has strong short term support at the $3.94-$4.02 area. If it holds this area on close, I'll continue holding (it would be a good thing if insiders defend the $4 level).
In fact, if NVAX is set to close below $4.02 tomorrow (the red ascending trendline) I'll take my profits and move on. What else can I do, but to hope for larger gains and at the same time protect some of my profits?
David,
Nice job on NVAX. Applause.
I show the ascending trendline coming in today, December 21, at 4.1057, basis the linear chart. Intraday yesterday, NVAX completed a Bullish Gartley at 4.12, and put in a double bottom exactly at 4.10. I'd like to see yesterday's 4.10 low hold.
I'd especially like to see
3.94 hold, since that looks to be the high of an Elliott Wave 1. It looks as though this Bullish Gartley was an A-B-C Wave 4 correction, and if it was, the low of Wave 4 shouldn't violate the top of Wave 1, which was 3.94 (the top of the Ascending Triangle). I'll post the daily chart next.
Here's the Bullish Gartley. Wave CD equaled Wave AB at 4.12, so that's completed. This is a good spot for a Wave 5 rally. We'll see, huh?
Below the candlesticks, I've drawn the 5 Elliott Waves. The theory is that Waves 1,3 and 5 are waves in the direction of the trend (in this case, up) and Waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves (opposite the trend, so in this case, down).
Wave 1 - begins at the bottom of the Ascending Triangle at 2.73 on November 14.
Wave 2 - was a simple correction from 3.94 to a low of 2.94. My understanding is that Waves 2 and 4 (the corrective waves) should be alternating. If Wave 2 is simple like this one, Wave 4 should be "complex." We'll see that in a second.
Wave 3 - usually is the largest move of the 5 waves, in the direction of the trend. It was, so far.
Wave 4 - is and "A-B-C" corrective rally. It went down...up...down. (see chart). It was a "complex" move down, rather than the "simple" move straight down in Wave 2. Wave 4 also is a Bullish Gartley, which is encouraging. It needs to move higher now to confirm that, of course.
Wave 5 - is another rally, which is what we should have here. The Ascending Triangle target of 5.15 still is IN PLAY. Sometimes, Wave 5 rallies get "truncated," or "cut off," so the target doesn't quite get MADE. We'll have to watch.
As I mentioned in the last post, the bottom of Wave 4 (which it looks like what we're in now) shouldn't violate the high of Wave 1, which was 3.94. If NVAX goes below 3.94, it likely will go lower.
Thanks Melf...very nice.
*applaud*
Jody
Screwed again, stock offering ::)
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh23542_2005-12-21_21-31-02_wbt004422_newsml
i just never get tierd of a good old equity shelf offering or private placement. I'm not even in this and still makes me sick. Not the end of the world, but a frustrating reality of short term speculative trading I guiess.
Well I am not too happy since I bought more. The question is will it make a VPHM type of rebound or should I just take my loss tomorrow (http://mdteague.com/NoPity)
Damn it, we got the deadly S-3 SEC Form after the close on NVAX >:( The stock is down 14% after hours ...
The offering is pretty significant, of $100M for a $202M market cap.
A man involved in a speculative business like stock trading must be prepared for a gap down like this to happen. This is why diversification is so important.
Also, if NVAX was to get important government funding it wouldn't need to offer this $100M in stock for sale.
I'll sell NVAX tomorrow around the open, probably I'll still get a profit.
David, I thought the same thing when I heard the news tonight: "why do they do this if they are to get a lot of money soon?" The last straw of hope would be a thought that NVAX "knows" it is getting the money and hence the stock will be strong - it'll be able to fill in the gigantic order of $100M. But selling in the morning may still be prudent.
NVAX gave sell signal few days ago: it made lower highs.
Also, all technical indicators including candlestick signal said SELL.
The market may already know the private placement - chart showed it.
Might be an opportunity @ lower fibs retracement from current 4.12 area-
@ 38.6% fib retracement @ 3.2
@ 61.8% retracement of 2.27 and
@ 78.6% @ 1.61. ....
In the Oct/Nov. dilution of 4.1 million shares @ 4.3$ -- NVAX retraced down to 2.73 area from 6$ ~ 61.8% fibs retracement to 2.73 area -- (55% hair cut from 6$) before bounced to 4.88 area -- those holders prolly took the opportunity to dump at above 4.3$...
Comes January who knows - but looks like NVAX mgmt want to pay up for some new year bonuses!
So watch out those fibs levels @ 38.6% and 61.8% retracements
Cheers!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Novavax files $100 mln equity shelf offering
Wed Dec 21, 2005 04:31 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Biotech company Novavax Inc. (NVAX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday said it may periodically sell up to $100 million in common and preferred stock and warrants.
The company said it plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include clinical development of avian and seasonal flu vaccines, internal research and development, expansion of facilities and general working capital.
If filed a shelf registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Under a shelf registration, a company may sell securities in one or more separate offerings with the size, price and terms to be determined at the time of sale.
Wow, for once I got lucky on these offerings, I sold yesterday at 4.14 just because I had a bad feeling about the stock based on having traded it actively since October (and I was watching a particularly fast slide on Level 2). Yesterday I was kicking myself for not taking profits at 4.8...
I have traded this stock more than any other stock so I acted on a hunch. I guess my thought now will be where to try to buy it back, if at all, maybe it can go up.
I will say this though, this sucks for NVAX to do this again so soon. Sorry to all who got caught, we have all been there more times than we care to admit.
I took a closer look at this and its not an immediate dilution, but rather a registration. it makes me think that this is a bit of an over reaction in AH to drop the price 14%... Yes, it brings in uncertainty in the future, but maybe the stock can recover enough to keep the trade? Its a hard call and I am out of the stock so on my side its just trying to figure out if its good to get in tomorrow, but both decisions to stay or get in would pivot around whether the stock should really drop this much on this news, and whether the senate vote can help it recover... what do others here think?
David I agree with your decision to move to the sidelines because your TA would have made you a seller today any way. But for those of you out there that will continue to follow the stock or who are looking for a re-entry consider what has happened. NAVX has filed a shelf registration. There are a number of reasons for a shelf and in some cases it can tell you that the company is executing a very solid business model. We will have to wait and see. I don't believe this shelf was filed to cope with cash burn. I find the timing of the shelf very interesting. I believe it has to do with completion of a business model. Short term negative - Yes. Long term will this shelf be used to purchase accretive assets - maybe. I for one will watch this closely because my gut tells me the timing of this announcement is strange. One final thought, I don't believe one share will be available from this shelf a these price levels.
I have been thinking some of the same things 1reilly. I traded some locking in gains on half of my total position at 4.73, but unfortunately bought my trading position back yesterday anticipating the news of receiving some of my tax $ from congress.
This timing is strange. The shares are not out today, but that is a lot of unknown dilution that could be unleashed at a moments notice. Is this related to a possible takeover/buyout, a positive big announcement, or just greed?
Why have insiders bought the stock recently?
I suppose the safe thing to do is reduce some of my risk from this volatile risky position. Obviously, a new technology to produce milllions of vaccines in short periods of time is increadibly valuable, but so are my investments.
Not that long since Oct/Nov
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=9734;image)
Any comments on the close of almost 4?
I held a portion of my position in hopes of a rebound ::)
just like Shawfund said ...SIGNAL TO SELL is waving at you ;)
Quote from: Terlisa on December 14, 2005, 12:33:27 AM
Here, 1 more before going to bed ;) :D ....NVAX... tell me what see there? & judge by yourself ;)
when chart & indicator is talking it pays to listen!!!
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1892.0
Based on today's chart formation, gap down but ended at high, which is a bullish candlestick signal.
It needs further confirmation.
Keep a close eye on it.
But because there are so many bullish stocks to have, I may not have enough capital for this stock.
AMD is already over my year-end target of $30 as of today. I don't know how much higher it may go. As long as it is still above its 9-EMA, will hold it.
ELN pulled back and is a good time to initiate a new position if not so before.
NVAX receives 8 Mil cash payment on ESTRASORB
PR newswire 12-23-2005 - 7:00 A.M.
Shaw fund
This 8 Mil in cash payment on ESTRASORB today now gives NVAX 30Mil in cash for 2006. This combined with Gary Evan's statement that NVAX has no current plans to access the public market convinces me that the shelf is for something important. I agree with you this stock should stay on peoples watch list. I actually added on the break but I do have a long term outlook, as I do with Elan.
NVAX is basically a story stock.
I looked at its income statement, it seems that the cash burn rate has gone down last few qts:
10 mil -> 8.8 mil -> 5.7 mil -> 2.7 mil.
But it has only 6.94 mil cash left with 36 mil debt. No doubt it needs cash to keep its business going. It is good to hear that it received 8 mil payment from a drug company. But it needs additional money anyway and this will keep the stock going up for a while.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 21, 2005, 05:44:21 AM
As I mentioned in the last post, the bottom of Wave 4 (which it looks like what we're in now) shouldn't violate the high of Wave 1, which was 3.94. If NVAX goes below 3.94, it likely will go lower.
NVAX broke 3.94 and double-bottomed at 3.65-3.66.
If NVAX can take out the top of the Bull Flag (solid green), it puts 4.88 IN PLAY, the recent high Data points for the down trendline (green dotted line) off the 4.88 high are on the chart below.
NVAX currently is BID 4.17...ASK 4.18
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 09, 2006, 12:22:59 PM
If NVAX can take out the top of the Bull Flag (solid green), it puts 4.88 IN PLAY, the recent high Data points for the down trendline (green dotted line) off the 4.88 high are on the chart below.
NVAX currently is BID 4.17...ASK 4.18
DOUBLE breakout on the print of 4.29 at 1:18PM. The 4.88 area is IN PLAY as long as NVAX remains above the flag.
nice gain today!!! up near .50
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=NVAX&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 09, 2006, 01:24:27 PM
DOUBLE breakout on the print of 4.29 at 1:18PM. The 4.88 area is IN PLAY as long as NVAX remains above the flag.
NVAX rallied to
4.78 this week, shy of the
4.88 target that is IN PLAY.
I like the way that this rally has unfolded, though, since we completed the A-B-C correction off the December high (see wave structure drawn below the chart).
Double bottom at 3.65-3.66, then a Bull Flag, then Monday's breakout at 4.29. The chart looks nice, and it still would look good on any pullback. Actually, I'd like to see a pulback here to test support, and to give the chart even better structure for a push higher. There are a lot of possible support areas below here:
1. The Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Kumo (Cloud) on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. 4.30...4.26... and 4.04 (see next post).
2. The top of the Bull Flag (solid green lines). Call it 4.20ish
3. The down trendline off the December high (dotted blue line) Roughly 4.12
4. The top of the November Ascending Triangle at 3.94
5. The 50DMA at about 3.83 (dotted green line)
A selloff to the 50DMA would seem a bit much, though.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo support levels:
Tenkan-Sen (Solid green line) - 4.30
Kijun-Sen (Solid red line) - 4.265
Top of the Kumo (Cloud) - 4.045
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 15, 2006, 12:55:13 PM
Actually, I'd like to see a pulback here to test support, and to give the chart even better structure for a push higher. There are a lot of possible support areas below here:
1. The Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Kumo (Cloud) on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. 4.30...4.26... and 4.04 (see next post).
2. The top of the Bull Flag (solid green lines). Call it 4.20ish
3. The down trendline off the December high (dotted blue line) Roughly 4.12
4. The top of the November Ascending Triangle at 3.94
5. The 50DMA at about 3.83 (dotted green line)
NVAX broke all of #1 support except the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) at 4.04, and it broke below #2 support, the top of the Bull Flag.
Given that NVAX put in a "mini" H&S top (neckline is 4.33), I don't expect the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) to be support. It could be, but where I
would expect to find some kind of bottom is at QUADRUPLE support,
3.87-3.94:1.
3.9476 is where the down trendline off the December 14 high of 4.88 comes in on Monday, January 23 (dotted blue line).
2.
3.94 is the top of the November-early December Ascending triangle )bold blue line).
3.
3.88 is IN PLAY from the "mini" H&S top (dotted red circles).
Math: The high of the Head was 4.78. Neckline: 4.33.
4.78-4.33= 0.45 points.....Neckline break at 4.33 - 0.45 = Target:
3.88 IN PLAY
4. The 50DMA is at
3.868 and is rising slightly, so it will be a bit higher on Monday, January 23. (dotted green line)
Quote
A selloff to the 50DMA would seem a bit much, though.
I disagree with myself on that now. ;D
While I'd like to see
3.94 (the top of the Ascending Triangle) hold if we head down there this coming week, we have technical justification for violating it, and testing
3.87-3.88 because of Supports #3 and #4.
If we do head down to
3.87-3.94 next week, NVAX
"should" bounce off it like a scalded cat since that level offers QUADRUPLE support to a stock that still is in an uptrend.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 21, 2006, 12:03:22 PM
3. 3.88 is IN PLAY from the "mini" H&S top (dotted red circles).
Math: The high of the Head was 4.78. Neckline: 4.33.
4.78-4.33= 0.45 points.....Neckline break at 4.33 - 0.45 = Target: 3.88 IN PLAY
Here's the H&S top on the Hourly Chart, which isn't quite right, but we get the picture.
I was watching the 10-Minute chart on Friday when it was stalling just above 4.33, and when NVAX broke below the 4.33 neckline, it tanked rather severely. This is a heavily traded stock, and it seems to be technically driven by the traders who play it.
Some of you will remember, for example, how NVAX bounced
exactly off its .618 retracement level of 2.73 on November 14. These kinds of things suggest that technicians enter and exit the stock at key price levels, which has much to do with why I think NVAX will bounce off QUADRUPLE support at
3.87-3.94, if we head down there next week.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 21, 2006, 12:03:22 PM
NVAX broke all of #1 support except the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) at 4.04, and it broke below #2 support, the top of the Bull Flag.
Given that NVAX put in a "mini" H&S top (neckline is 4.33), I don't expect the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) to be support. It could be, but where I would expect to find some kind of bottom is at QUADRUPLE support, 3.87-3.94:
So far, we've got an early drop to
4.04 exactly, then a bounce back to unchanged.
4.04 "could be" support, but I'm hoping that
isn't .
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 23, 2006, 09:46:26 AM
So far, we've got an early drop to 4.04 exactly, then a bounce back to unchanged. 4.04 "could be" support, but I'm hoping that isn't .
NVAX is running off that
4.04 low. Drat! >:(
It just hit
4.32. The neckline break on Friday of the intraday H&S top was
4.33, so we'll see how it does at that resistance.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 23, 2006, 10:34:08 AM
It just hit 4.32. The neckline break on Friday of the intraday H&S top was 4.33, so we'll see how it does at that resistance.
The quick rally to
4.32, a penny below the
4.33 neckline resistance of the H&S top was the high of the day, which is another example of...
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 21, 2006, 12:42:42 PM
This is a heavily traded stock, and it seems to be technically driven by the traders who play it.
Traders sure knew where that neckline was, and sold it! ;D
This morning's low of
4.04 , right at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), could be it for the downside. I was hoping for a test of that QUADRUPLE support at
3.87-3.94.. We still could get it, but the stock, overall, is bullish, so the bounce off Kumo (Cloud) support looks pretty good.
Darn it. >:(
NVAX is regrouping below the 4.33 neckline break of the H&S top. Yesterday's high was 4.29, slightly below it.
Broke 4.04 support. NVAX cuirrently is BID 4.00...ASK 4.01. We might get to that QUADRUPLE support at 3.88-3.94 after all.
NVAX has been trading around 4.00 all afternoon. I've was thinking that if we didn't get the awaited tank to QUADRUPLE support at 3.88-3.94, maybe I ought to go ahead and buy it. I also thought that the second I did, that, it would tank.
Instead, it just took off to the UPSIDE...4.38, so far. >:(
Bought NVAX at 4.20, on the pullback to the 4.19 buy pivot (Wednesday's high was 4.18, so yesterday's print of 4.19 was a "buy," but it zoomed through there too fast for me).
I had to" pay up." We came so-oo close to the 3.88-3.94 QUADRUPLE support area (the low was 3.98), but that's the breaks.
:(
NVAX currently is BID 4.22...ASK 4.23
NVAX spent Friday consolidating the 10% gain on that inexplicable 8-minute burst from 4.00 to 4.39. Don't know if there was any news.
??? ??? ???
NVAX is beautifully positioned for another rip to the upside. It's the type of chart that puts me in mind of "First the chart....then the news" meaning that if any good news at all come out, this chart already was telegraphing that it was "good to go,"
Very nice structure:
1. The Ascending Triangle breakout on December 9.
2. The Double Bottom at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) December 22 & 30.
3. The current Symmetrical Triangle formation.
4. The positioning of the stock at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), ready to take off "above the Cloud."
5. QUADRUPLE support at 3.88-3.94, which might explain the "inexplicable" 10% 8-minute rally on Thursday. NVAX got only to 3.98, hung around the 4.00 level for quite awhile with players in a pack knocking elbows to see if it was going test QUADRUPLE support, and then...BANG...a bust out of the pack rally, with players scrambling to get into the chase.
Very bullish looking chart, which is why I was willing to "pay up" for it at 4.20 on Friday, on the pullback to Wednesday's 4.19 buy pivot (they completely smoked me when they busted out of the pack on Thursday...it happened so fast, I missed it).
This one is NVAX's to lose. Could happen, of course, but as it stands, the chart looks higher.
Melf Elf
Your work on this stock and many others is greatly appreciated. I'm with you on this one. Right or wrong your work has just received an applause from me.
Mike
Quote from: 1reilly on January 28, 2006, 09:39:37 AM
Melf Elf
Your work on this stock and many others is greatly appreciated. I'm with you on this one. Right or wrong your work has just received an applause from me.
Mike,
My posts tend to be long and too technically detailed for most people (understandably...we all have a lot to read), so knowing that my work is helpful to some is appreciated. Thanks very much for the feedback.
If we don't make $$$ on this one, we will on other stocks when we play this type of chart. We've got multiple patterns, multiple validations of support. Percentage-wise, those are going to be winners.
Thanks again, Melf - for your hard work. I don't understand about the clouds but it is helpful to see your charts. I don't have NVAX - all my money is tied up and my husband doesn't want me to use margin.... Though I may be able to talk him into a daytrade.
Since the 8-minute rally from 4.00 to 4.39 on January 26, NVAX has been forming another bull flag. The area of the broken H&S top is from 4.33-4.78, just overhead.
These two bullish patterns give the chart some strength, to start attacking that resistance.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 02, 2006, 09:21:44 AM
Since the 8-minute rally from 4.00 to 4.39 on January 26, NVAX has been forming another bull flag. The area of the broken H&S top is from 4.33-4.78, just overhead.
These two bullish patterns give the chart some strength, to start attacking that resistance.
Scroll up and look and that last chart, and then look at this one.
The darned thing "morphed" into a Bear Flag and a Bearish Gartley, which I'll show you in the next post.
My concern about the Bear Flag is that it could be an A-B-C corrective rally of the leg down off the H&S top. In other words, the Bear Flag rally only is "correcting" the decline, by rallying, and if that's the case, there's more downside to come.
>:(
Recall that, on the way down from the broken neckline of the H&S top at 4.33, we were looking for NVAX to come down into QUADURPLE support at 3.88-3.94.
The low was 3.98, then NVAX went on that 8-Minute "Screamer" to the upside, to 4.39. My view was that the stock was "committed" on the upside. In other words, with a strong move like that, it's "telling" us to forget about 3.88-3.94. The stock is "gone" on the upside, which is why I was willing to "pay up" for it at 4.20 on the pullback.
The initial rally off the low was from 3.98 to 4.39, or 0.41 points. The pullback after the "Screamer" to 4.39 was to 4.10. "If" NVAX rallied an equal amount of points, 0.41, from the 4.10 pullback low, that would be a rally to 4.51.
4.10 + 0.41 = 4.51.
What we didn't want to see is a rally that ended at 4.51, because then we're looking at the possibility of a completed Bearish Gartley, on the heels of that H&S Top.
The rally ended at 4.49. YUK...
The bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle (bold purple) will come in on Monday, February 6 at 4.10, which also is the low of the right side of that Bearish Gartley. That definitely will be my stop if I stay in.
I'll give it some more thought over the weekend. ??? ??? ???
Sorry, that was the wrong chart, but I'll leave it up.
NVAX is called higher, at BID 4.28...ASK 4.30. If it starts sliding back toward my 4.20 entry, I'll sell. The short-term H&S Top, Bear Flag, and Bearish Gartley have me in too much doubt.
Sold NVAX at 4.25. Gain: 1.2%
With the fact that bird flu was found in Africa today, imho, NVAX and SVA will be hot.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/02/08/nigeria.birdflu/index.html
Personally, I like SVA better than NVAX, as SVA I feel is quite strong and should easily run to 5 soon. NVAX has imho traded a little more weakly (maybe because it ran up more in terms of total percentage due to the fact that it is a US company than SVA).
IMO, buying a bird flu stock right now is a tradeoff between these possibilities...
1. More bird flu news comes out of africa, possibly even some deaths.
2. Soon winter will end and the possibility of a pandemic will end for this year, and traders will leave the bird flu stocks.
I feel that #1 will prevail here. Right now I don't have a position but I believe bird flu news coverage over the next week or two will drive up stocks like sva and nvax. Buying sva also puts me in an uncomfortable position of subconsciously hoping for more bird flu deaths to help drive up the stock price... The other nightmare scenario is that as bird flu infects the huge HIV population in africa, who can't clear it, there are more chances for a pandemic mutation to happen.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4444940.stm
GLTA
Note: while bird flu getting to a new continent is huge news in and of itself, it remains to be seen whether or not the press hypes the AIDS/Bird flu nightmare scenario that others have talked about. If you start seeing an article or two about the AIDS/Bird flu combo that I talked about, watch out above. Note that the last article link I posted did not mention anything about that possibility, which I cannot believe.
hi,
chart looks good for nvax to go ahead,
big white candle today. short term 4.75. 4.40 in premarket
maxi
Melf Elf
I know your reasoning is solid and I reentered this stock based on your TA. So why don't I exit when you come to your conclusion? I'm of the opinion that this company is on the right track with their science. I have never felt this should be looked at as only a BF play. My fundamentals tell me that the shelf registration means something big is coming. I'll add to this stock on breaks and see if their pipeline and processes come to fruition. Keep up the great TA on this one I will use it to add.
Quote from: 1reilly on February 10, 2006, 10:46:28 AM
Melf Elf
I know your reasoning is solid and I reentered this stock based on your TA. So why don't I exit when you come to your conclusion?
Mike,
Because you're a good boy, and you make your own trading decisions. ;D
Quote
Keep up the great TA on this one I will use it to add.
Thanks, Mike. I felt much less confident about my position when those 3 Bearish patterns showed up, so I had to exit.
Review:
1. The Bearish H&S Top (neckline: 4.33)
2. The Bearish Gartley
3. The Bear Flag
This morning, we broke below Bearish Pattern #4, a mini H&S top, a fractal (repeating pattern) of Bearish Pattern #1, which put 3.99 IN PLAY again. The recent low was 3.98.
Math:
Head was at 4.49, the top of the Bearish Gartley
Neckline was 4.24.
4.49 - 4.24 = 0.25 points
4.24 (neckline break) - 0.25 points = Target 3.99 IN PLAY
In addition, we've possibly got Bearish Pattern #5 forming. >:(
There's too much on this chart to show you that one, so I'll post it separately.
Mike,
Remember that "8-Minute Rally" from 3.98 to 4.37? That's the tall candlestick, whiere the 4.09-4.10 neckline begins on this chart.
In addtion to the Bearish Gartley and the Bear Flag that formed after that "8-Minute Rally," we've now got the possibility the it all has "morphed" (changed) again, and that everything since the "8-Minute Rally" is nothing but another H&S Top. The Right Shoulder also is a "mini" H&S top (neckline: 4.24)
If we break 4.09-4.10, we could be headed lower than the 3.99 target, already IN PLAY.
You see why I'm not feeling confident about the way NVAX is acting. ???
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 10, 2006, 02:50:34 PM
This morning, we broke below Bearish Pattern #4, a mini H&S top, a fractal (repeating pattern) of Bearish Pattern #1, which put 3.99 IN PLAY again. The recent low was 3.98.
Math:
Head was at 4.49, the top of the Bearish Gartley
Neckline was 4.24.
4.49 - 4.24 = 0.25 points
4.24 (neckline break) - 0.25 points = Target 3.99 IN PLAY
Mike,
Oops! I screwed that one up. I was thinking of the top of the Bearish Gartley/and Bear Flag. I was lazy and didn't go back to look at it. Sorry about that.
The high of that "mini" H&S top only was 4.40, so the target IN PLAY is 4.08.
Math:
Head was 4.40
Neckline was 4.24
4.40 - 4.24 = 0.16 points
4.24 (necline break) - 0.16 = Target: 4.08 IN PLAY
We got to 4.10 today, so that might be "close enough."
NVAX currently is BID 4.21...ASK 4.22, re-testing that broken neckline at 4.24.
Once again thanks for all the work. Let me ask you your opinion regarding the almost flatline volume since Feb 1 and what does The MACD look like to you . I don't know if you look at Bollinger bands but they have narrowed significantly. I think what your saying about this potential breakdown is also what the volume, MACD and bollinger bands are saying. There is great indecision on this stocks direction and all the TA says be very careful. BUT we can all see this and in this current volume environment this stock should be easy to take to the downside. My guess is folks don't want to be on the short side at these levels. Let's see what happens.
Looking for 10% up/down soon.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVAX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p22435327780
Quote from: 1reilly on February 11, 2006, 12:57:28 PM
There is great indecision on this stocks direction and all the TA says be very careful.
Mike,
That's a good description. After the "8-Minute Rally," we haven't done much. Bulls couldn't sustain the rally, but Bears haven't tanked it. The low volume probably is telling us that there's no conviction, and that players are waiting for direction. We've got those short-term bearish patterns, but the bigger picture looks okay.
"Could go higher...could go lower." Big help, huh!? That's why I sold.
Friday, we missed hanging onto the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle (bold purple pattern) by a penny, but the fact that we held support at that 4.09-4.10 neckline and tried to hang onto 4.17 (the bottom of the triangle) at the close makes that one "too close to call." But, it does look a bit perilous if we can't move higher, and break below 4.09-4.10 support.
Notice that the Tenkan-sen (solid green line) and Kijun-Sen (solid red line) have had a Bearish Cross (green below red), and that the Kijun-Sen (solid red line) was resistance on Wednesday and Thursday. The Kumo (Cloud), however, is below, so that's some support.
Again, "could go higher...could go lower." ???
Sorry that I can't be of any help, Mike. I thought that I had a pretty good read on NVAX when we were headed down to test QUADRUPLE support at 3.88-3.94, but the bearish patterns after the ""8-Minute Rally" have me stymied.
hi,
here is a simple swing chart for nvax. as you can see , not really tradeable . no trend is evident here.
thanks for all the great work everyone.
maxi
hi,
here is another chart showing the boliinger flat ,macd flat ,adx flat. as you can see this could go either way. (my bet is to the down side which probiably means you should go long,lol)
so no real risk reward ratio here,
thanks ,
maxi
Yesterday, NVAX held the neckline of the recent H&S Top pattern at 4.09 exactly. This morning, NVAX knocked out the high of the Right Shoulder, 4.40, and also took out the high of the Head, at 4.49. This print high is 4.52, so far. That's looking very good.
The takeout of the high of the Head puts 4.89 IN PLAY.
Math:
High of the Head: 4.49
Neckline: 4.09
4.49 - 4.09 = 0.40 points, added to the breakout...
4.49 + 0.40 = 4.89 IN PLAY
Notice that's within a penny of the 4.88 target IN PLAY from the triangle breakout on January 9. Notice also that yesterday's 4.09 low held this time, right at the top of that pattern (solid green).
There's no such thing as "a lock" in the stock market, but with hold of 4.09 and with two patterns reinforcing a target, I'd be very surprised if we don't see the two targets of 4.88 and 4.89 IN PLAY.
The December 9 Ascending Triangle target of 5.15 also still is IN PLAY.
Bought NVAX at 4.39. Stop: A print of 4.08. Risk: a loss of 7%
NVAX currently is BID 4.38...ASK 4.39
NVAX continuing to gain. You can check the full post here: (6, 8 and 9th posts from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.msg46901#msg46901
Melf Elf
well 5.15 has been hit, since I'm still long I'd be very interested in your take on this leg up. I know that targets hit should lead me to do some selling, but the fundamentals lead me to think I should add at some point. I'll wait for your take on this one. Thanks Mike
Any NVAX holders long HEB as well? Looks like all bird flu stocks are ripping today, but HEB is up 19% as I write this - Am up over 40% since last week. Just broke 3.70 which was the high of the last big run-up, I think it is going much higher....
GL all ;D
NVAX update at swing trading MB:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.375#top
Quote from: 1reilly on February 21, 2006, 10:45:55 AM
Melf Elf
well 5.15 has been hit, since I'm still long I'd be very interested in your take on this leg up. I know that targets hit should lead me to do some selling but the fundamentals lead me to think I should add at some point. I'll wait for your take on this one. Thanks Mike
Mike,
In case you aren't aware, earnings are due out tomorrow, March 1, before the bell. Since we're so close to the
5.87 target, I personally don't find it worth holding the stock into earnings, but that's up to you, of course.
As far as the chart, when the
4.88-4.89 and the
5.15 targets MADE, we also got the mid-December to mid-February Symmetrical Triangle breakout (pattern in bold purple), which put a target of
5.87 IN PLAY. We got to within twelve cents of that target yesterday (high was 5.75). NVAX was at 5.80 in after hours, so we're real close to that target.
I know that you like NVAX longer-term, Mike, but I don't have an opinion about that. I just play the patterns.
Good luck!
Melf Elf
I was worried about you since you hadn't posted for awhile. This group needs your input. Thanks for your thoughts. I had decided to lighten up today and will. I still think it's their technology that makes this stock a winner long term. I also know I can always buy this Dandy back.
Mike
Quote from: 1reilly on February 28, 2006, 08:22:30 AM
I had decided to lighten up today and will.
That's good, Mike. We got a gift at the open of 6.00. The
5.87 target MADE, and more (high of 6.15), then the stock sold off. It's a good idea to take profits at/near targets.
If NVAX gets whacked tomorrow on earnings like VPHM is today, that gap at 5.12-5.21 from last Friday could get filled. At any rate, I'm out. All 3 upside targets have MADE.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 28, 2006, 11:23:49 AM
If NVAX gets whacked tomorrow on earnings like VPHM is today, that gap at 5.12-5.21 from last Friday could get filled. At any rate, I'm out. All 3 upside targets have MADE.
Mike,
They're "selling the earnings news," after reaching our 3 upside targets.
We broke below a Symmetrical Triangle at the open. The bottom of that pattern had 3 hits to it, validating it as support. That trendline "should be" resistance on any rally attempt here.
Given the broken Symmetrical Triangle, I'd say good chance that we get the
5.12-5.21 gap fill.
NVAX currently is BID 5.50...ASK 5.51
Melf I'm watching that gap. I'm going to buy this one back but i'd like to see some consolidation if not we're going to have some easy re-entry points should this thing turn up. Thanks for your thoughts.
mike
Nvax up .19 today!
Melf
I can't seem to get a chart posted today so I'll just ask you to look at the 3 last candles printed and tell me if this doesn't resemble the three candles printed in late Dec which led to a move from 3 to 4.80. With today's close I'm inclined to re-enter this tomorrow. If you have any thoughts I'd appreciate hearing them. That goes for anybody else also.
Mike
We've got to bring this David Randolph beauty back to the active 3SOF portfolio! We must have at least one avian flu play to be a properly positioned portfolio. ;)
A special thank you to all the members who continued to follow and contribute to this thread! A ton of great information here.
NVAX - in a very nice, bullish technical formation. One could see a cup with handle, one could see an ascending triangle.. but most would agree that this is just plain powerful. I wanted to highlight that NVAX displays cupping volume. This is something I have noticed to be a very powerful signal. Volume is flowing into this stock when it rises which leads me to believe traders and investors are making sure this one does not fly by them ;)
We will buy NVAX @ open tomorrow.
Way to go G, but I would like David to read this:
"We want you back on the panel".
I am picketing with every post on the members section.
I fully support stocky on this one! We DO want David here as well. David is the reason I joined and Michael and ElitG have not proven to me yet that they can make me money, like David did. Nothing personal, but I want David to watch over the transition period. Please understand.
Quote from: berloga on March 14, 2006, 07:23:07 AM
I fully support stocky on this one! We DO want David here as well. David is the reason I joined and Michael and ElitG have not proven to me yet that they can make me money, like David did. Nothing personal, but I want David to watch over the transition period. Please understand.
me too!
I strongly agree with usedcasting & Berloga.
I want Dave back here!
I want Dave back here!
I want Dave back here! :D :D :D
I've been following The Elite One for a long time now. He will make you money. You just got to have faith. And allow David to be nursed back to health.
fyi ;)
Analyst Actions: Novavax Gaining in First Light-Volume Trades, Price Target Hiked
Tuesday , March 14, 2006 07:43 ET
Boston, Mar 14, 2006 (MidnightTrader via COMTEX) -- NVAX is up about 2.5% in its first light volume premarket trades after the stock reportedly saw its price target raised to $10 per share from $6 per share by Rodman & Renshaw. Top premarket bid/ask stands at 6.20/6.29.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.57c3f40ea7bb192b849142bc87298fe74f8d98ce11bb6c4109370438e08c48cb
Any bad thoughts on the gap up this morning? I had mixed emotions but nibbled some anyway.
So far, so good.
Thx...Jody
EliteG, go for it! I am sure you can do a super job. I know David will be missed but you got what David has, may be more! I am looking forward to your analysis. So will you still be doing your intraday TAs for stocks?? GL to you! And to all of us!
I forgot to add that NNVC.PK is also Bird Flu play and it is poised to break out!!
Personally, I am glad that there are other voices on board and I am sure David will come back when he is well. Give him a rest!
Now, could someone give me an entry point, now that I missed this morning's. I would be most grateful to have some TA. I doubt if NVAX is going straight to 10 without pause.
Thanks in advance!
Quote from: labelladonna on March 14, 2006, 01:20:30 PM
Now, could someone give me an entry point, now that I missed this morning's. I would be most grateful to have some TA. I doubt if NVAX is going straight to 10 without pause.
Thanks in advance!
Here is a quick intra-day TA for you labelladonna(thats a mouthful ;))
Good support points would be around the lines.. but of course NVAX may be able to breakout here >:D
Thank you for responding. This is very good. I am so happy to have you as one of our new leaders.
Bobbi aka labelladonna
re; 3-15 opening...dfo you consider this a buy into any weakness in am?
thx for all the comments guys ;)
NVAX was a great pick for our new team! gaining over 5.5% even after a gap up open! When I brought up NVAX to the crew we all agreed we had to have it, and that now was the time. ;) (HEB was under consideration ;))
starfire mentioned NNVC on this thread today as well.. nice move :) but its a pink so more risky and therefore a bit higher requirements(wheres the volume?)
Schmi0 asked about getting into NVAX at this level tomorrow? Yes, I consider any weakness to be buyable but also watch out for NVAX to simply run away. Keep an eye on the intra-day tomorrow.. I'll keep an eye on it too. Lets see if we get a chance to break the high of 6.86 today >:D
So a strong move today from NVAX. Oliver mentioned the upgrade(thx for the post ;)) and there was a comment from an analyst saying NVAX's potential flu vaccine is "the best": http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060314/novavax_mover.html?.v=1
52-week high for NVAX.. the only Bird Flu stock at a new 52-week high! >:D
Rock and roll ;)
Suggest also to look at AVNX( same letters as nvax) hi volume and very bullish >:D
Jorgegr
Hi EliteG,
I am very confident that we will all make money under your leadership. Just be yourself, you will do fine.
Hope David will get back soon.
NVAX is a great pick.
On AVNX we might wait a little, because Cramer(Mad Money) pumped it yesterday.
Lalitah
GNBT is beginning to move to its previous 52-week high. I played it several times last month and am holding the last purchase at a loss now, but think it will propell with the help of the hype coming from NVAX.
Should we consider GNBT as well?
NVAX updates at swing trading MB:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.msg51451#msg51451
.bizzarre...bid is more than the ask on my level2 and were trading @ the ask??
..volume down from yesterday...small blocks being traded.
For those that have it this is one of the few worthwhile posts on Yahoo.
Included for background
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7077111&tid=nox&sid=7077111&mid=162453
but this is the meaty one about where nvax has been and is going
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077111&tid=nox&sid=7077111&mid=162585
The renowned scientist that said 50% of us could die
http://www.abcnews.go.com/WNT/AvianFlu/story?id=1724801&page=1
....woooohaaa!!!...afternoon rally!
LONG-TRIGGERED..6.84...!!!!!!!!!!!
EliteG....I know i'm a newbie but come'on...thoughts so far?
do we have a sell target for this? I'm thinking it should make new all-time-high but the chart is too steep in my opinion and we might want to consider downside protection.
Quote from: Schmi0 on March 15, 2006, 02:52:58 PM
EliteG....I know i'm a newbie but come'on...thoughts so far?
Hey Schmi0 ;D You gotta be happy with
NVAX so far. ;) I should explain that the 3SOF portfolio is not about intra-day moves so we will update, if needed, end of day. We stick to our trading plan, which is holding a
FIRE stock like NVAX until it gives us a reason to sell. No reason right now.. I want to see this guy break 7!
Happy to have you aboard :)
Quote from: netfishmademerich on March 15, 2006, 03:05:36 PM
do we have a sell target for this? I'm thinking it should make new all-time-high but the chart is too steep in my opinion and we might want to consider downside protection.
A technical target on this is much higher then where we are at. As an avian-flu trend play NVAX remains in play.. even with the steepness in the chart ;) The 10 dollar level can act as a magnet here if NVAX can really get going >:D So for now NVAX is simply a hold.
EliteG,
....thoughts for pm update...
A) overbought?
B) many have entered short positions...breaks 7 could be explosive with covering
C) exit plan if your apprehensive?
Always grateful for your input! Schmi0
I posted my NVAX update at swing trading MB:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.new#bot
update
NVAX:
NVAX gained 5.26% today and closed at its high. We are up 11% in 2 days and of course it is tempting to take profits. ;)
Yet, NVAX shows no sign of weakness as it made a new 52-week high! For now we must let this play develop and perserve our position in a potential monster.
Quote from: Schmi0 on March 15, 2006, 03:35:14 PM
EliteG,
....thoughts for pm update...
A) overbought?
B) many have entered short positions...breaks 7 could be explosive with covering
C) exit plan if your apprehensive?
Always grateful for your input! Schmi0
A) stock on fire usually show up as overbought.. and stocks can stay in overbought territory for quite some time ;)
B) I use this site to check on short positions (http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=nvax&submit=Enter) and from the data, if its accurate ;), shorts are running scared! So a squeeze less likely, imo.
C) this guy has an exit plan(scroll down) http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/activetraderupdate/10273845.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
I agree but for now I'm not putting a stop on and I will watch closely ;)
Hi EliteG,
I took profits on NAVX yesterday. When to buy it back? I also took profits on GNA, MRVC, ANGN, and I couldn't figure out how to safely buy them back. So, I just watch them going higher without me. ???
I have small account, so I don't want to sell half...I hate to see NAVX going higher without me...Can you help?
Thanks.
dcrlin
G
Melf didn't answer my questiion about the three white candles but you sure did by adding it to the portfolio. Thanks. It sure looked to me as a clone of those 3 candles back on Dec 28th. They led to an appx 65% gain in short order.
Mike
News on Govt Funding for NVAX on IV/ AIDS.
Novavax Receives Additional Government Funding for IV/AIDS Vaccine Research
PR Newswire - March 16, 2006 07:01
MALVERN, Pa., March 16, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX), announced approval today from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a component of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), of an additional commitment of approximately $1.0 million to fund the third year of a 4 1/2 year research program. Novavax is developing a novel HIV/AIDS virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine as part of an NIH Integrated Preclinical/Clinical AIDS Vaccine Development Program comprised of scientists from the University of Alabama at Birmingham, Emory University, and Harvard Medical School. All three institutions are working with Novavax in a collaboration to accelerate HIV/AIDS vaccine development.
Dr. Gale Smith, Vice President of Vaccine Development, explains, "We believe the only realistic solution to the global HIV/AIDS pandemic is an effective vaccine. Novavax is extremely pleased to be working with such an acknowledged group of world leaders in developing a novel HIV/AIDS vaccine. Our research is based on our insect cell technology for the production of recombinant virus particles that mimic HIV-1, but without the risk of infection." According to Dr. Beatrice Hahn, one of the principal investigators at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, "Globally circulating strains of HIV-1 are extraordinarily variable, and this diversity poses a major obstacle to AIDS vaccine development. Currently, all candidate vaccines are derived from contemporary HIV-1 isolates, often selected solely based on availability. With VLP vaccines produced by Novavax, we are now testing whether consensus immunogens can elicit broadly cross-reactive immune responses and thus protect against a wide range HIV-1."
In the first two years of the program, Novavax developed a process to manufacture HIV-1 VLPs from consensus sequences of the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein, the principle target for virus neutralization. These synthetic genes were shown to be incorporated into particles that are structurally similar to HIV-1. Scientists at UAB, Emory, and Harvard discovered that the novel HIV/AIDS VLP vaccines induced a range of immune responses and antibodies in small animals and non-human primates that neutralized both laboratory strains and acute, contemporary HIV-1 isolates. The objectives for the team during 2006 are to maximize efficiency of incorporation of the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein into particles. Novavax then plans to begin preparations for human clinical trials of an improved HIV/AIDS VLP vaccine.
More PR this morning:
Novavax Receives Additional Government Funding for HIV/AIDS Vaccine Research
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060316/nyth065.html?.v=38
"MALVERN, Pa., March 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News), announced approval today from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a component of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), of an additional commitment of approximately $1.0 million to fund the third year of a 4 1/2 year research program. Novavax is developing a novel HIV/AIDS virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine as part of an NIH Integrated Preclinical/Clinical AIDS Vaccine Development Program comprised of scientists from the University of Alabama at Birmingham, Emory University, and Harvard Medical School. All three institutions are working with Novavax in a collaboration to accelerate HIV/AIDS vaccine development." more at link.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060316/premarket_movers.html?.v=1
[NVAX] announced approval from the federal government for a third year of research in a four-and-a-half year program to develop an HIV/AIDS vaccine.
The company, which is also working on a vaccine for bird flu, has seen its shares enjoy a huge run-up in the last half year, rising nearly sevenfold since late August. Shares added 19 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $7.19 in heavy premarket trading on the INET electronic exchange. Shares closed at $7 on the Nasdaq Wednesday.
More NVAX analysis and charts here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.msg51730#msg51730
I'm getting an itchy trigger finger to take profits before a retracement.
Do we have a target in mind? Currently sitting at $7.50
Thanks...JOdy
I went ahead and pullled the trigger at $7.48 for a decent gain in less than week. Applaud for the pic. Would like to re-enter a lower level....hopefully I didn't make a mistake.
I am out for the moment too, quite happy to make $1K in a week even if I wind up missing out on a little more upside. I am trading my way out of the DEIT hole here little by little, and thus conservative is better than risky for me at this moment. I have been there done that with NVAX as they say, and wouldnt be surprised if there is some profit taking until Monday (bird flu stocks like to rebound on Mondays from worldwide news of further spread of the virus and more deaths that seem inevitable.)
Besides, I still have EMFP, so there is no bird flu hole in my portfolio :-)
Quote from: dcrlin on March 16, 2006, 06:32:23 AM
Hi EliteG,
I took profits on NAVX yesterday. When to buy it back? I also took profits on GNA, MRVC, ANGN, and I couldn't figure out how to safely buy them back. So, I just watch them going higher without me. ???
I have small account, so I don't want to sell half...I hate to see NAVX going higher without me...Can you help?
Thanks.
dcrlin
dcrlin :) first off GREAT TRADES! ;) To buy back something safely you must have a good reason and have a tighter stop in place. I recommend a nice retrace or tight consolidation.. these are areas that one can have a clear stop zone(right underneath) because they should provide support. Sometimes you just have to let a play go by and remember that you made $(thats what we're here for).. so good job!
Quote from: 1reilly on March 16, 2006, 06:34:10 AM
G
Melf didn't answer my questiion about the three white candles but you sure did by adding it to the portfolio. Thanks. It sure looked to me as a clone of those 3 candles back on Dec 28th. They led to an appx 65% gain in short order.
Mike
I would sure like a nice 65% gain again :o.. and people think clones are bad :D
Quote from: AussieTrader on March 16, 2006, 07:10:35 AM
News on Govt Funding for NVAX on IV/ AIDS.
Novavax Receives Additional Government Funding for IV/AIDS Vaccine Research
PR Newswire - March 16, 2006 07:01
johnny on the spot with the news 8) thx aussie
Quote from: 422fwhp on March 16, 2006, 02:46:06 PM
I went ahead and pullled the trigger at $7.48 for a decent gain in less than week. Applaud for the pic. Would like to re-enter a lower level....hopefully I didn't make a mistake.
Jody 8) No mistake in making a solid trade ;) but we are betting NVAX has more left.
Quote from: tokyopua on March 16, 2006, 03:08:17 PM
I am out for the moment too, quite happy to make $1K in a week even if I wind up missing out on a little more upside. I am trading my way out of the DEIT hole here little by little, and thus conservative is better than risky for me at this moment. I have been there done that with NVAX as they say, and wouldnt be surprised if there is some profit taking until Monday (bird flu stocks like to rebound on Mondays from worldwide news of further spread of the virus and more deaths that seem inevitable.)
Besides, I still have EMFP, so there is no bird flu hole in my portfolio :-)
another great trade! but again we didnt want to risk losing our position in perhaps the #1 avian flu stock >:D
update NVAX
She keeps on climbing! Another new 52 week high and an increase in volume. Some profit taking rejection from traders who bought the breakout but still a great gain! Of course as NVAX continues up it get harder and harder to hold ;) and 16% in 3 days aint bad :D.. but the stock has been rewarding our patience and has put in some nice support ;)
3 charts(a chart feast)
1. For the appetizer we have the 5-minute chart. It comes with a symmetrical triangle. We will watch for a break of that to make a move to either upwards(strong resistance) or downwards(strong support).
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17443%3Cbr%20/%3E)
---------------------------------------------------------
2. The main course will be a 60 minute chart complete with various strong support lines and a beautiful broadening channel. 1st strong support at $7.. I like to call this triple strong because it has 3 things backing it up A. gap support B. trend support from channel C. psychological support @ whole number. Triple support @ 7 area may make a good pick-up spot with confirmation of a bounce. 8)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17444)
-------------------------------------------------------
3. Dessert must be the hot daily chart. Steep support(magenta,pinkish,purple line) and plenty of other supports are showcased. But the highlight here is the top trendline that we hope to use as a target sell. >:D
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17445)
With support in place we are now able to keep a cool head with a retrace and have the patience to grow with NVAX. 8)
Elite, great daily review, great depth, great insight, thanks.
Love it!
uc.
QuoteElite, great daily review, great depth, great insight, thanks.
Love it!
uc.
I agree, excelent analysis. ::)
P.S. did you notice that I gave you an applaud ;)
G,
Thank you very much for your insight and great information.
Applause!!!
Thx for the comments guys ;D 8)
---------------------------
intra-day update NVAX:
My comments are on the chart ;)
What are everyones thoughts on how NVAX is going to fair in trading on Monday?? Pull back, or push upwards? If it receives a dime of funding for the bird flu this week, the stock will really take off.
I posted my NVAX update at Swing Trading MB (12th post from top):
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.495#bot
update
NVAX:
NVAX managed to find support, bounce and end positive for the day on Friday. What a monster.
Another chart feast:
From Thurday 5minute chart:Quote1. For the appetizer we have the 5-minute chart. It comes with a symmetrical triangle. We will watch for a break of that to make a move to either upwards(strong resistance) or downwards(strong support).
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17443)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
From Friday 5-minute chart:Triangle broke down to find strong support @ 7. The bottom of the symmetrical triangle became resistance for the rest of the day.. luckily that is an ascending line ;).
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17575)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
60 minute chart mid-day Friday:(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17571)
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60 minute chart after market close Friday:(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17573)
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Daily chart for after market close Friday:(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17574)
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So lots of support in place for
NVAX. I am interested to see if the broadening channel on the 60-minute holds and how our triple support will fare. Action can be crazy this week so I will continue to actively watch and chart NVAX progress. It is important to put a stop in just for security ;)
We will sell NVAX if it hits our stop @ 5.97.
NVAX continues to impress!! Up everyday since we made the buy... with this kind of action I will have to move my stop higher tonight ;)
Check out this intra-day action! :o
;)
Wow....up to $8.15 as I type !
Had to jump in this afternoon. The stock has evolved from 'going up every day' to parabolic today. I'll keep a close stop on it. I don't want to be the one of the ones without a seat when the music stops playing. Maybe it breaks $10 tomorrow!
The title of this thread really really really needs to be changed ;)
Quote from: eliteG on March 20, 2006, 02:05:33 PM
NVAX continues to impress!! Up everyday since we made the buy... with this kind of action I will have to move my stop higher tonight ;)
Hi G.
About this new stop.
Any thoughts about were to put it?
Thanks.
P.S. Excelent new dinamics in this site!! :)
Actually, VPHM going from $2 to $22 was a nice achievement. The recent drop is attributed to VPHM losing their Vancocin market to generic production in anticipation. Whether this was due to "panic" or not, much of VPHM money seemed to have gone into popular Avian plays like NVAX, GNBT, HEB, etc.
This NVAX thread titled " ...another VPHM???" may be fitting if NVAX follows in VPHM footsteps in terms of gains to $20+. If that's the case, then GNBT MB should be titled "... another NVAX???" ;)
I posted my NVAX and GNBT (along with HEB and GNTA) updates at the Swing Trading MB (I also posted the followup to the new Rotational Swing Trading Template):
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.msg52432#top
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 20, 2006, 04:19:41 PM
Had to jump in this afternoon. The stock has evolved from 'going up every day' to parabolic today. I'll keep a close stop on it. I don't want to be the one of the ones without a seat when the music stops playing. Maybe it breaks $10 tomorrow!
I agree, this stock and the avian flu field have gone parabolic :o.. hopefully the disease will not :-X.
Quote from: Lusitano on March 20, 2006, 06:01:19 PM
Quote from: eliteG on March 20, 2006, 02:05:33 PM
NVAX continues to impress!! Up everyday since we made the buy... with this kind of action I will have to move my stop higher tonight ;)
Hi G.
About this new stop.
Any thoughts about were to put it?
Thanks.
P.S. Excelent new dinamics in this site!! :)
Thx Lusitano 8) Here are the thoughts about the stop...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
update
NVAX:
First off :o and 2nd some history:
Monday 3/13, evening: decision made to buy NVAX.
Tuesday 3/14, morning: NVAX bought @ 6.30
Tuesday 3/14, mkt close: NVAX closes @ 6.65,
+5.55% from our buy
Wednesday 3/15, mkt close: NVAX closes @ 7.00, +5.26% on the day,
+11.11% total
Thurday 3/16, mkt close: NVAX closes @ 7.30, +4.29% on the day,
+15.87% total
Friday 3/17, mkt close: NVAX closes @ 7.36, +0.82% on the day,
+16.82% total
Monday 3/20, mkt close: NVAX closes @ 8.31, 12.91% on the day,
+31.90% total
So a week has passed and now we are up over 30% on our trade..thats nice.. but we haven't brought it home yet ;) NVAX rewarded our patience..literally every day(and thats the way it should be) 8) but now I will ask for even more ;)
It was a huge day for the whole bird flu vaccine group..basically if you had a vaccine to fight H5N1 in a press release, ever, your stock was up..period. A pure frenzy out there. I will not speak about the news here or vaccine development.. I'm not qualified and I dont think anyone has the scoop on the inside scene anyway. Lets stick to technicals.
NVAX is following a steep trend line, blue support, on this chart(magenta on my previous charts). In this craze, its time to get aggressive with the trading plan(which will be updated each day) and be prepared!
The following is only for Tuesday 3/21:
The Stop: Moves up tight to 7.75. If the trend is to remain crazy, yesterday's candle cannot be eaten through.
The Target: The channel projection gives us a target of >$11 for tomorrow. That would be a gigantic move but if this happens we will be prepared to sell.
Personally, I believe
NVAX needs an exhaustion day before it is ready to slow down. That would be signaled with a gap up and HUGE volume! The volume on the move today is actually quite tame and leads me to believe NVAX wants higher. ;)
We will sell NVAX if it hits our stop @ 7.75 or >$11, otherwise hold.
$11 target not so crazy, stocks have a habit of re-tracing historical levels / situations. This long term chart shows NVAX dropped from $11 ish to $5 zone in 1 day (in early 2002). Now it wants to eat up that 1 day historical red candle and get back up to $11 zone. Hang on for the ride....
today will be interesting :o
Novavax Executes Definitive Agreement for $38 Million Public Offering
Tuesday March 21, 7:50 am ET
MALVERN, Pa., March 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement for a $38 million registered direct offering of 5,205,479 shares of its common stock at a price of $7.30 per share. The shares of common stock will be issued pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement.
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC acted as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. Novavax plans to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including but not limited to i) clinical development of virus-like particles (VLP) based avian and seasonal influenza vaccines, including the development of appropriate adjuvants, and demonstration of large-scale production capabilities, for such vaccines; ii) internal research and development programs, such as preclinical and clinical testing and studies of our product candidates and the development of new technologies; iii) expansion of and investment in the Company's research and development facilities, including compliance with CGMP (Current General Manufacturing Practices) and GLP (Good Laboratory Practices) rules and regulations and iv) other general corporate purposes. A copy of the final prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained from Dennis Genge, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Novavax, Inc., 508 Lapp Road, Malvern, PA 19355, when available.
Meaning for the PPS? Will it come down to 7.30$?
I don't like shelf filings, but if you're gonna file one best to do it when the stock is on fire. For me my short term strategy has been comprimised by this news, I have closed my position in pre market for a nice 6 day gain. Will look for re-entry again if this takes a trip closer to the shelf price / support.
I still stand by my long term chart earlier today though (just don't think it'll be this week..
Good Luck
AussieTrader,
How is it possible to sell in pre-market?
Quote from: DannyOhad on March 21, 2006, 08:53:01 AM
AussieTrader,
How is it possible to sell in pre-market?
With a pre market sell order, maybe you don't have that with your brokerage.
LOL what a joke!!! I see the market is the same, maybe i should not get back it.
Nothing like dilution to kill a rally. Time to go short?
Stopped out at the open. Tried to short but "no shares available." The smart money probably borrowed all the shares before the news >:(
I am sorry to disturb the "shorting party" - but I believe it will cross 8$ (to the upper side) today.
Bird flu is distributing fast...
update
NVAX:
Well it seems NVAX is taking advantage of the craziness in the market.
QuoteNovavax Agrees to $38 Million Offering
Tuesday March 21, 8:14 am ET
Novavax Agrees to $38 Million Stock Sale; Company Sees Using Proceeds for Vaccine Development
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NVAX
The offering stock is being sold @ $7.30 which is really quite high but that was still enough for NVAX to hit our stop @ 7.75.
I think thats around a 23% gain in a week. 8) We'll take it home. ;)
I have never seen a public offer do good for stock price. BRVO, AOB... and they all go even less then the offer.
G
I understand your TA and if I were running a public portfolio I would have done the same thing. However, when the shelf was announced, I stated that the company's plan was far sighted and I believe this is only the beginning of this new technology. One must ask why only 38mm? This in my opinion is dilution with a specific purpose. All fundamentalists view accretive dilution as a positive. We'll see how this plays out. People have viewed this as a bird flu play. In fact this is a manufacturing platform play.
Quote from: 1reilly on March 21, 2006, 10:13:30 AM
People have viewed this as a bird flu play. In fact this is a manufacturing platform play.
Can you elaborate on this idea? I thought NVAX was licensing the stainless steel bath scalable manufacturing technology from another company?
I'm on the run today so I'll be brief. Vlp is a new technology related to the(manufacturing) creation of an antibody. When I say manufacturing I'm actually talking about a new process that is very mobile and swift in its ability to duplicate the antibody, not physical equipment.
I want to futher my question regarding the private placement. Why only 38mm? Dec 22 they filled a 100mm shelf. Yesterday the stock traded 15.5 mm shares or over 100mm in market value. They could easily have placed the whole shelf if their goal was to just bring in cash. I believe that the 38mm is targeted. It will be interesting to see where. The general purpose use of funds described in the PR leaves one wondering how did a number like 38mm come to mind. Think about it?
today will be interesting
Novavax Executes Definitive Agreement for $38 Million Public Offering
Tuesday March 21, 7:50 am ET
MALVERN, Pa., March 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement for a $38 million registered direct offering of 5,205,479 shares of its common stock at a price of $7.30 per share. The shares of common stock will be issued pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement.
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC acted as the exclusive placement agent for the offering.
SURPRISE SURPRISE >:D
Rodman & Renshaw set a target of 10 for NVAX a few days ago. Nor we learn they as exclusive placement agents. ???
jorgegr
The dilution news killed what probably would have been a "big air" day for NVAX otherwise. Look at GNBT today. That could've been NVAX. If NVAX hadn't diluted today I think we would have seen a similar spike. Bummer.
Keep NVAX on your radars. Pulled back to the shelf price (predictable), might set up re-entry around the 9ema / shelf price area. Will need to base some here for a few days to get the setup in place.
update:
NVAX: Short Interest UP 1.3% to 4.1M in Mar 2006
Friday , March 24, 2006 16:20 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Novavax, Inc. (NasdaqNM: NVAX) INCREASED 1.3% to 4,121,351 shares for the month ended mid-March, 2006.
SYMBOL FEBRUARY MARCH CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
NVAX 4,069,880 4,121,351 +51,471 +1.26% 1
Based on NVAX's 20-day average daily share volume of 8,787,890, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
heading higher again?
cheers
O.
very bullish news; time for reentering ?
Premarket:8.33 $ :o
Novavax Bond Holders Elect to Convert $7.0 Million of Outstanding Notes
Friday March 31, 7:00 am ET
MALVERN, Pa., March 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News), announced today that certain holders of $7.0 million face amount of the company's 4.75% senior convertible notes due July 15, 2009 (the "Notes") exercised their optional conversion right to convert such Notes into 1,294,564 shares of Novavax Common Stock at the per share conversion price of $5.46.
As a result of the conversion, the aggregate principal amount of Notes outstanding will be reduced from $29.0 million to $22.0 million and the company's stockholders' equity will be increased by the same amount. In addition the company's annual interest expense will be reduced by $332,500. With this conversion, the total outstanding shares of Novavax increases to 61.3 million.
With the good news and overwhelmingly strong bird flu hype NVAX seems to be defying gravity for the meanwhile. Chart is exponentially increasing making an entrance more risky. :-\
And I have a question for bird flu speculators: Why NVAX over other bird flu stocks like GNBT or AVII?
Anyone one of you consider re-enter at this level?
Quote from: [D] Investor on March 31, 2006, 09:04:59 AM
With the good news and overwhelmingly strong bird flu hype NVAX seems to be defying gravity for the meanwhile. Chart is exponentially increasing making an entrance more risky. :-\
And I have a question for bird flu speculators: Why NVAX over other bird flu stocks like GNBT or AVII?
well, I am thinking about SVA also !
(check the board anaylsis)
cheers
O.
Quote from: [D] Investor on March 31, 2006, 09:04:59 AM
Chart is exponentially increasing making an entrance more risky. :-\
DInvestor,
Good read. Applause. NVAX got whacked this afternoon.
NVAX completed a Double Top on the break of 7.00. I didn't see any news, but even with news, this looks like technical selling on the pattern break. We can see on the intraday chart (last post) how the stock cratered when 7.00 got taken out.
The break of the Double Top puts a target of 5.69 IN PLAY, near the 50DMA.
Quote from: Melf Elf on April 04, 2006, 04:07:02 PM
The break of the Double Top puts a target of 5.69 IN PLAY, near the 50DMA.
For a minute there yesterday, I thought NVAX was going to hit 5.69 on the early morning tank. The 50DMA is right there, too, at 5.69, but buyers stepped in at 5.85. FWIW, I would peg near-term resistance at 7.00 - 7.12 if NVAX continues to rally.
1. 7.00, the March 29 low, is where the Double Top broke.
2. 7.09 is the March 23 low.
3. 7.12 is the Tenkan-Sen, basis the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. That's somewhat like an 8-Day price-related MACD. It probably will come down a little each day.
anyone got a good entry point for NVAX after the recent fall, are we considering <$6 or around 5.8 or have i missed it
down 10% in premarket ???
NVAX: RBC Capital Cuts to Underperform from Sector Perform; Sets Tgt @ $3; Analyst Notes
Thursday , April 06, 2006 07:55 ET
Issuer: Novavax, Inc. (NasdaqNM: NVAX)
Analyst Firm: RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Underperform (from Sector Perform)
Target Price: $3.00
Analyst Comments: The firm believes that NVAX's run from under $2 to the current $6-$7 range over the last 6 months is based on fear of an avian flu outbreak, not sound fundamental valuation of the company. The expectations for NVAX are way ahead of the company's ability to deliver a safe functioning vaccine that has been tested in humans with validated commercial scale manufacturing.
Quote from: la-onda on April 06, 2006, 08:41:41 AM
down 10% in premarket ???
Thanks, Oliver. So much for rallying to 7.00-7.12 resistance, eh?
Quote from: Melf Elf on April 04, 2006, 04:07:02 PM
The break of the Double Top puts a target of 5.69 IN PLAY, near the 50DMA.
The Double Top target: 5.69 MADE this morning. And, more...
There's a gap below here at 5.12-5.21 that NVAX might want to fill.
Quote from: Melf Elf on April 10, 2006, 10:24:15 AM
[There's a gap below here at 5.12-5.21 that NVAX might want to fill.
That didn't take long!
Melf
This little sell off (40%+) has peaked my interest. This stock may be broken but with 100mil in cash I'm going to take a serious look at this 5.00 to 4.50 level. I've had to play catch-up here because I lost track of this one after I got stopped out at 7.39. It looks to me as though this decline is driven by RBC's comments which frankly aren't any different than last year. I can't find any comments from the company except the PP, which makes management look like a genius. Anyway, I'm going to see if the 4.75 level can hold and take a shot at this on any lower open tomorrow. If that doesn't work I'll try to re enter around 4.20 where the stock did a lot of work. If you have any thoughts regarding better levels let me know. I guess that fishing trip to Cabo saved me some serious money had I been around I would have bought this back at 6.20 for sure.
Quote from: 1reilly on April 10, 2006, 05:43:26 PM
Melf
This little sell off (40%+) has peaked my interest. This stock may be broken but with 100mil in cash I'm going to take a serious look at this 5.00 to 4.50 level.
Mike,
The bottom of Kumo came in yesterday at
5.015. The December high of 4.88 is the top of support, prior to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout in late February, 2006. Yesterday's low of 4.93 was right in that 4.88-501.5 support.
There's alot of "possible" support below 4.88 from the work that the stock did last winter in the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, but I wouldn't like to see NVAX go very much below the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), or yesterday's low.
When a stock does that, it suggests a trend change, and the Kumo (Cloud) often becomes resistance on snap back rallies.
Quote
If that doesn't work I'll try to re enter around 4.20 where the stock did a lot of work. If you have any thoughts regarding better levels let me know.
If NVAX can't hold in this area, I'm thinking all the way back to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle/the top of Ascending Triangle, which was 3.94 (solid horizontal blue line).
The Kumo (Cloud) basis the weekly chart is 3.35 - 3.5425 if RBC is determined to talk it down.
QuoteI guess that fishing trip to Cabo saved me some serious money had I been around I would have bought this back at 6.20 for sure.
Whew...saved from the quell. ;D
Hope you had fun!
Melf
Thanks for the great feed back. You've given me real definition to my plan, and I'll follow your numbers because they're clearer than mine. You might want to take a look at INSM this AM C.E. Unterberg out with new Buy rec with tgt of 3.
Mike
PS Cabo San Lucas is no longer the secret it was 5-7yrs ago, but it is a great place to get away. Try it.
Quote from: 1reilly on April 11, 2006, 09:03:11 AM
Melf
Thanks for the great feed back. You've given me real definition to my plan, and I'll follow your numbers because they're clearer than mine. You might want to take a look at INSM this AM C.E. Unterberg out with new Buy rec with tgt of 3.
Mike
Mike,
Thanks for the INSM info. I'll post a chart in the INSM folder.
Well that plan didn't work. In at 5.01 out at 4.85. I probably could have picked a better market environment to try this play. Tomorrow's another day. Hope I was the only one to try this today. This stock is under assault and it may take federal funding to turn this one.
Quote from: 1reilly on April 11, 2006, 05:03:46 PM
Well that plan didn't work. In at 5.01 out at 4.85.
Mike,
Applaud your decision.
Right or wrong, I think that you were wise to get out of there on the break of support in the low 4.90s. Taking a loss is never fun, but NVAX is in a dead drop at this point, and is acting very weak.
QuoteThis stock is under assault
Good description.
NVAX tried to bottom in the low 4.90s the past couple of days, and even had a little breakout above 5.23-5.24, but that went nowhere. The "rally" was about eight cents...it got stopped at 5.32, then they tanked it, and took out support late yesterday afternoon.
After support in the 4.90s got taken out, it rallied back to about 4.89 (former support in the low 4.90s became resistance), then they closed it out at the low of the day. Nasty.
Let's start a new thread for shorting...
NVAX 3
Hi Terlisa,
Your technical analysis makes sense and you seem to know what you are doing when you short (I was impressed a couple of months back when you shorted GIGM at the perfect time).
I would just say maybe keep a tighter than normal stop on it because the "experts" were predicting the arrival of H5N1 bird flu in Alaska within 3 weeks at the beginning of April. So if they are right, that is due to happen any day now, and though its still months after that before it hits mainland USA, the hype can cause a spike in bird flu stocks.
Good luck!
Thanks for the reminder Tokyopua, I always put tight stop especially when I short stocks..
I don't have position yet in NVAX i'm still timing my entry point it might go up a little bit more say 5.40 to 5.60 just below 50 SMA...from there, i'll take that opportunity to short it while NVAX still bearish...
I like what the indicators show me here...the MACD just completed the crossover, the stochastics are very bullish and the RSI is turning back up north.
what do you guys say?? is this a confiremd up move for sometime to come??? I say YES! >:D
The 20 MA was taken out today. Next resistance is the 50MA at $6.08.
well...my just sold my shares at $6.27 (bought them at $5.87 last week) ...
earnings jitters make me nervous....lost bad holding thru' earnings...
anyways, afterbreaking thru' friday's high of $6.24 next resistance is recent high of $6.48...
good luck to those long. ;)
Quote from: Terliso on April 25, 2006, 09:50:05 PM
Thanks for the reminder Tokyopua, I always put tight stop especially when I short stocks..
I don't have position yet in NVAX i'm still timing my entry point it might go up a little bit more say 5.40 to 5.60 just below 50 SMA...from there, i'll take that opportunity to short it while NVAX still bearish...
Well.. it is a good short ;) ....well, to be honest I almost got panic when NVAX hits above 6 :o
I'm still holding my short, NVAX may found support @ 200EMA just above 4 (I'll cover there) ;)
Weekly chart is Bearsih...
My NVAX (short) is doing good ;)
same plan will cover just above $4
NVAX: Q1 EPS (11c) vs (22c) Beats (14c) Est
Monday , May 15, 2006 07:48 ET
QUARTER RESULTS
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) reported Q1 results ended March 2006. Q1 Revenues were $1.30M; +35.42% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +58.54%. Q1 EPS was (11c); +50.00% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +21.43%.
Good CC call for NVAX with losses being smaller !
Novavax Q1 loss narrows
Mon May 15, 2006 7:21 AM ET
May 15 (Reuters) -
NOVAVAX INC. (NVAX.O: Quote, Profile, Research)
Latest Yr ago qtr
Loss (diluted, $/shr) 0.11 0.22
Net loss ($ million) 5.5 8.9
Total revenue
($ thousands) 1,303 962
--The specialty biotechnology company said in the latest
first quarter it had stock-based compensation expense.
--For the latest first quarter, two analysts on average
had expected the company to post a loss of 14 cents a share,
before exceptional items, on revenue of $0.8 million, according
to Reuters Estimates.
Nice!!! ;) :D
almost time for covering ;)
I just Covered now @ 4.17.... 24.86% profit
Yahooooooooooooooooooooooooooo................. ;) :D ;D
Move today may be due to speculation of Human to Human bird flu cases in Indonesia.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWESsJvt6CFE&refer=asia
Novax up 20% like GNBT...HEB...
;)
Here's the link :
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060523/aftermarket_movers.html?.v=1
• Novavax newest member of NASDAQ Biotech Index
MALVERN, Pa., May 24, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Novavax, Inc. (NVAX, Trade), said today that it has been added to the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index as of May 19, 2006. Novavax has traded on the exchange since July 10, 2001.
"This is an important recognition of Novavax as a seasoned public company," said Novavax President and Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Rahul Singhvi. "We continue to move forward in our goal of developing unique vaccines that protect against contagious diseases, such as the H5N1 pandemic influenza, that endanger public health around the world."
Launched in 1993, the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index includes companies that are listed on the NASDAQ national market and meet certain minimum requirements, among them having a market capitalization of $200 million and average daily trading volume of 100,000 shares. The index is ranked on a semi-annual basis in May and November and serves as the basis for the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index Fund. Full eligibility criteria can be found at http://www.nasdaq.com.
About Novavax, Inc.
Novavax is focused on creating differentiated, value-added pharmaceutical and vaccine products and technologies. The company's technology platforms include the virus-like particle (VLP) manufacturing technology utilizing the baculovirus expression system in insect cells, as well as novel vaccine adjuvants based on Novasomes(R), non-phospholipid vesicles and dendrimer technologies. The company is developing a pandemic flu vaccine against H5N1, H9N2 and other avian influenza viruses and a seasonal flu vaccine against human influenza strains using its VLP and Novasome adjuvant technologies. Novavax's drug delivery technologies include the micellar nanoparticle (MNP) technology which is the basis for the development of its first FDA-approved product, ESTRASORB(R). In addition to MNP, Novavax drug delivery technologies include Novasomes and Sterisomes(R), solvent and oil free emulsions for subcutaneous depot injection. The company has several products utilizing the MNP technology in various stages of development.
Forward-Looking Statements
Statements made in this press release that state Novavax's or management's intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations, or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include but are not limited to statements regarding usage of cash, product sales, future product development and related clinical trials and future research and development, including FDA approval. Novavax's actual results could differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company, or industry results, to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among other things, the following: general economic and business conditions; ability to enter into future collaborations with industry partners, competition; unexpected changes in technologies and technological advances; ability to obtain rights to technology; ability to obtain and enforce patents; ability to commercialize and manufacture products; ability to establish and maintain commercial-scale manufacturing capabilities; results of clinical studies; progress of research and development activities; business abilities and judgment of personnel; availability of qualified personnel; changes in, or failure to comply with, governmental regulations; the ability to obtain adequate financing in the future through product licensing, co-promotional arrangements, public or private equity financing or otherwise; and other factors referenced herein. Additional information is contained in Novavax's annual report on Form 10K for the year ended December 31, 2005 and quarterly report on Form 10Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2006 incorporated herein by reference. Statements made herein should be read in conjunction with Novavax's annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. Copies of these filings may be obtained by contacting Novavax at 508 Lapp Road, Malvern, PA 19355 Tel 484-913-1200 or the SEC at http://www.sec.gov.
SOURCE Novavax, Inc.
Cheryl Marley of Novavax, Inc., +1-484-913-1202, or
[email protected] http://www.prnewswire.com
Copyright (C) 2006 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. ********************************************************************** As of Saturday, 05-20-2006 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated a DOWNTREND on 04-06-2006 for NVAX @ $6.03. (C) 2006 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights reserved.
Quote from: Doyle on May 24, 2006, 08:08:50 AM
Novax up 20% like GNBT...HEB...
;)
Here's the link :
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060523/aftermarket_movers.html?.v=1
Those 3 went up but still bearish ;)
Quote from: Terliso on May 22, 2006, 12:15:41 PM
I just Covered now @ 4.17.... 24.86% profit
Yahooooooooooooooooooooooooooo................. ;) :D ;D
Alister,
NICE trade...Applause! Good timing on that exit, too! ;D
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 24, 2006, 03:23:18 PM
NICE trade...Applause! Good timing on that exit, too! ;D
Thanks Melf.... Timing is everything & a little bit of luck ;)
NVAX just had about 1 million shares traded in the last 10 minutes and shot up a lot. Something is going on here behind the scenes. Anyone see any news out? Jumped about $0.25 in this time all of a sudden.
with all the news about human 2 human bird flu and with the summer to come soon, with more bird flues to be expected on other countries i would not short this one now.
fyi:
25 slide presentation:
http://wsw.com/webcast/rrshq8/nvax/
8)
I'm back in this one late Fri at 5.11. I'm a big believer in VLP technology and love the team of scientists this company has put together. I only bring this stock up because I think that the short assault on this has run it's course unless the 4 dollar level is taken out. I see three very important fundamental events happening in the next three months. Clinical trial results, Gov. funding announcements and Aug quarterly report. I know this chart offers a view for both the short and the long and probably says trade me. I have decided to go back to my roots and bet on this company's business plan and plan to add on setbacks from here. I just might find a real winner here. By the way if you look at this company forget the bird flu sideshow. This is about new vaccine technology and delivery systems. When I do something here I'll post.
Trading Idea:
NVAX break out its descending resistance in late August, after that the stock has been consolidating inside a triangular pattern and showing some signs of strength.
Although this is probably a risky trade, the risk / potential here is interesting, since support could be found near $3.65, we can set an easy trading setup, the upside above the top of the triangle is above $5.00.
I expect a breakout of the triangular pattern to the upside sometime soon, so we're putting some money here.
Trading Plan:
Buy NVAX today at or near the open.
Regards,
Update:
No special development here, NVAX is trading inside the triangle pattern, and we expect an upside breakout soon.
Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $3.60)
Regards,
Out of time for tonight, will leave you the chart.
Update:
Excellent price development here ! Now we got the expected breakout ;)
Some good news today as well:
- Novavax Details Advantages of Portable Manufacturing Process at World Vaccine Congress (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061010/phtu004.html?.v=77)
With this breakout of the triangular pattern, we have a short term target in play around $4.90 / $5.00, if NVAX gets there this would not be a necessary sell sign, and we are not setting any limit sell order at this time. Volume has increased a bit too, and remains above average. It is crucial to watch a breakout of the previous relative high of $4.43, but with current momentum I think that will be not an issue, although a retest on the breakout level of $4.10 can happen and its perfectly normal.
Lets wait ;)
Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $3.60)
Regards,
Novavax, to me looks to have formed a
Head & Shoulders Bottom (Reversal) Pattern. :D
Above the 50-day MA, MACD rising.
Moving very nice lately,approaching the 200-day MA.
Also a Breakout from this small Symmetrical Triangle (Continuation) Pattern. ;)
Target $6.50-8.50
Support @ $4.13...3.62...3.33
Resistance @ $5.26...5.52...6.22
52wk Range: 2.35 - 8.39
Volume: 1,521,375
Avg Vol (3m): 1,374,260
Technicals
MACD is Bullish...... ;D
Stochastic is Bullish...... ;D
Last Price Quote is:
11.44%above 13-day EMA
16.24%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 70
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $224.58
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 11/07/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform
More info on.....
Head and Shoulders Bottom (Reversal)
The head and shoulders bottom is sometimes referred to as an inverse head and shoulders. The pattern shares many common characteristics with its comparable partner, but relies more on volume patterns for confirmation.
As a major reversal pattern, the head and shoulders bottom forms after a downtrend, and its completion marks a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.
The price action forming both head and shoulders top and head and shoulders bottom patterns remains roughly the same, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a head and shoulders top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom.
Head and shoulder bottoms are one of the most common and reliable reversal formations. It is important to remember that they occur after a downtrend and usually mark a major trend reversal when complete. While it is preferable that the left and right shoulders be symmetrical, it is not an absolute requirement. Shoulders can be different widths as well as different heights. Keep in mind that technical analysis is more an art than a science. If you are looking for the perfect pattern, it may be a long time coming.
Analysis of the head and shoulders bottom should focus on correct identification of neckline resistance and volume patterns. These are two of the most important aspects to a successful read, and by extension a successful trade. The neckline resistance breakout combined with an increase in volume indicates an increase in demand at higher prices. Buyers are exerting greater force and the price is being affected.
Rams,
Meu dois centavos valor, localizado aqui ! ;) ;D
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.510
Comércio feliz para você.
Cumprimentos
Update:
Another breakout for NVAX, confirming the bullish reversal, with a close above its previous relative high. Like stated before the target for the short term run is $4.90/$5.00, the only changes we are doing on the trading plan is a selling suggestion on that price area and an upgraded stop suggestion.
Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop or limit sell order for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $3.95 and the suggested exit level would be near $4.90/$5.00)
Regards,
Update:
Yesterday we had the first real consolidation move after the recent breakout... It was ugly to watch, but it doesn't compromise our trade yet. Although we have to increase the suggested stop level in order to protect profits in this position in case anything goes wrong.
We expect NVAX to quickly move to upside and give continuation to this up swing... But now we have a stop in place, lets see how it goes...
Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX with a stop @ $4.09
(the suggested exit level would be near $4.90/$5.00)
Regards,
Update:
This is a difficult call... Last Friday NVAX traded just 1 tick above our stop level, and most likely we may get stopped today if we keep this stop level today.
I hate to mess with stop levels, but the previous descending resistance line (now an expected support) is spotted today at $4.06, so I'm moving our stop to $4.05 just to see what happens... probably we'll be stopped as well, but at least it will make more sense from a technical point of view...
Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX with a stop @ $4.05
(the suggested exit level would be near $4.90/$5.00)
Regards,
Trading Idea:
Our last stop on NVAX was not good, our technical perspective was right, but the trading plan was not efficient and so we lost our position on NVAX just to watch it move up again.
After this throwback to the reactive zone, NVAX is heading north once again; our expectations about Bird Flu related stocks are still strong for short term as they are showing signs of strength, so we're jumping back into NVAX.
Trading Plan:
Buy NVAX today at or near the open.
(the stop will be provided on the next update, but will probably be placed below the recent relative low)
This one too ;) I have the target price, top of the channel & also the over head resistance @ $5.50...IMHO ;)
I added yesterday as well...mainly b/c I didn't set a stop the first time.
GLTA....Jody
Update:
NVAX is not showing strength yet... let's wait...
Trading Plan:
Hold with a stop @ $3.85
Best regards,
The news... just in case someone missed it.
Cdc to Evaluate Novavax's Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Candidate
Tuesday October 31, 7:00 am ET
First Opportunity To Test Novel Vaccine Against Live Virus
MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) - Novavax, Inc. said today the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has agreed to evaluate the company's H5N1 pandemic influenza vaccine candidate, including pre-clinical testing of the vaccine against live bird flu virus.
ADVERTISEMENT
"We are pleased that the government has agreed to test the protective efficacy of our vaccine candidate," said Dr. Rick Bright, Novavax's Vice President of Global Influenza Programs. "The CDC, one of a handful of premier infectious disease institutions, has the unique ability to challenge our vaccine with live avian influenza virus."
Under terms of a Cooperative Research Agreement, Novavax will provide the CDC with a supply of the company's virus-like particle (VLP) H5N1 vaccine. Over the past year, Novavax has assembled a significant dossier of pre-clinical data supporting its vaccine which will serve as the basis for the company's investigational new drug application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Novavax is planning to begin human clinical trials using the vaccine during the first half of 2007.
"It is absolutely critical that we are prepared for a potential outbreak of pandemic influenza," said Dr. Terrence Tumpey, Senior Microbiologist at the CDC. "Vaccines like these hold a lot of promise because they offer an attractive alternative to the existing egg-dependent methods for the manufacture of influenza vaccine and have a shorter production lead time which is urgently needed at this time."
Last year, Novavax began collaborating with the CDC to evaluate a vaccine to protect against the H9N2, another subtype of bird flu. "This working relationship further validates the importance of our influenza program and underscores the confidence we have in our influenza VLP vaccine," Dr. Bright said.
VLPs are nearly identical to a virus but do not have the virus's genetic material required for replication or infection. When inoculated into the body, these particles have the ability to attach to cells and trigger a natural immune response that is capable of protecting against viral infection.
Nice jump for NVAX today ;)
Update:
NVAX was all over the news today: :)
PR Newswire - Cdc to Evaluate Novavax's Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Candidate (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061031/ph00399.html?.v=1)
Briefing.com - InPlay: Novavax says CDC to evaluate it's H5N1 pandemic influenza vaccine candidate (http://finance.yahoo.com/mp#nvax)
AP - Novavax to Provide Vaccine for CDC Study (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061031/novavax_cdc.html?.v=1)
AP - Premarket Movers: Novavax Up on CDC Win (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061031/premarket_mover.html?.v=1)
TheStreet.com - Bird Flu Deal Boosts Novavax (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/tsmfe/SIG=124662eeq/*http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/biotech/10318795.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA)
bizjournals.com - Novavax's flu vaccine to be checked out (http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/061031/1368809.html?.v=1)
AP - Sector Snap: Bird Flu News Boosts Stocks (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061031/sector_snap_bird_flu.html?.v=1)
The stock had a nice jump, opening with a Gap Up, and holding down the morning gains quite well, volume was almost 3 times above average, and this news flood may be a «wake up call» around NVAX attention.
Taking in consideration the previous consolidation and throwback to the supports, I see this Gap as a «breakaway» candidate, probably NVAX will consolidate the recent gains, but the technical front is getting much better.
Trading Plan:
Hold with a stop @ $3.85
Best regards,
Update:
Yesterday's session was suspicious for NVAX... suspicious on a good way... After performing a steady down trend for almost all the session, NVAX had a rebound on the last minutes of the session, recovering from $4.21 to a close at $4.30, volume was big during those minutes, and during after hours trading NVAX jumped another +2.8% to close at $2.42... Apparently no news on this, but taking in consideration the bird flu scenario right now, it seems that some interest may be hidden on this sector...
From a technical approach, NVAX filled the gap from the previous session, which is good in terms of consolidation. I have good short term expectations for this sector.
Trading Plan:
Hold with a stop @ $3.85
Best regards,
Update:
Looks like our suspicions were irrelevant, as NVAX just had a complete neutral session, with low volume and not much of price action. We'll stand with the current trading plan:
Trading Plan:
Hold with a stop @ $3.85
Best regards,
Update:
Some kind of neutral sessions during the last few days, NVAX seems to have a little short term support near $4.20. Nothing special to comment here, we'll stand with the same trading plan for now.
Trading Plan:
Hold with a stop @ $3.85
Best regards,
Update:
- Novavax Announces Release Date of Third Quarter 2006 Financial Results and Investor Conference Call (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061107/ph00653.html?.v=1)
(a press release to be issued after 7:00 a.m. EST on Nov. 14, 2006)
Some price action for NVAX with a nice advance and strong volume. NVAX was unable to mark some new relative highs yet, but the chart is looking much better now.
All we need to watch now is a breakout of the $4.70 area, and that should provide a even better setup, the ascending support is standing at $4.25.
Trading Plan:
Hold with a stop @ $3.85
Best regards,
NVAX charting shaping up very nicely Rams, I'd consider trading it but i dont want to make an entry right before earnings next week. I'll be taking another look at it next week and see how the market reacts to the results and the effect on the chart pattern.
Heres a chart from a little bit longer term perspective.
-fous
Up 3.5% in Pregaming!
Novavax's Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Candidates Trigger Robust Immune Response In Pre-Clinical Models
PR Newswire - November 08, 2006 7:00 AM ET
Novavax, Inc.'s (Nasdaq: NVAX) novel pandemic influenza vaccine candidates triggered a protective immune response in several pre-clinical studies, according to data to be presented for the first time today at the Fifth World Congress on Vaccines, Immunization and Immunotherapy.
Novavax scientists created four vaccine candidates to protect against four different subtypes of human and avian influenza, including H5N1, the strain that global health officials believe could possibly set off a pandemic outbreak. These virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines, which have the three- dimensional structure of the influenza virus but don't contain genetic material, have been tested in three animal models, said Dr. Rick Bright, Novavax Vice President, Global Influenza Programs.
Data show each vaccine candidate triggered an immune response robust enough to protect against infection at very low doses of vaccine. Two of Novavax's vaccine candidates were tested in ferrets, the influenza animal model that is most relevant to humans. These vaccine candidates produced robust immune responses that provided protection against a variety of influenza strains, including strains not included in the vaccines.
Most influenza vaccines are made from proteins. When compared to a single flu protein of a 2002 influenza virus, Novavax's VLP vaccines raised and broadened the ferrets' immune response more than 3.5 times when tested against that virus. In addition, when the immune response was measured against a different influenza strain from 2004, the response generated by Novavax's VLP vaccines was more than eight times higher than that induced by the single flu protein.
"Our data demonstrate the potential for a single vaccine to protect against a range of influenza strains," Dr. Bright said. "This can be a critical factor in a pandemic situation, since a new vaccine would not have to be created every time the virus mutates," Dr. Bright said. "Our goal is to demonstrate in the clinic that our single H5N1 vaccine protects against new mutations of H5N1 viruses." Novavax plans to begin human clinical trials of its pandemic influenza vaccine during the first half of 2007.
While structurally similar to the live influenza virus, Novavax's VLPs do not have the virus's genetic material required for replication or infection. Upon vaccination, these particles attach to cells and trigger a natural immune response that is capable of protecting against influenza. Novavax also has the capability to scale up manufacture of its influenza vaccines rapidly using portable, disposable equipment. This unique manufacturing system does not rely on traditional egg-based methods for vaccine production, which are complex and require cumbersome equipment and many months of preparation.
The data were generated by Novavax and collaborators at the University of Pittsburgh's Center for Vaccine Research, the Southern Research Institute and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
About Novavax
Novavax Inc. is committed to leading the global fight against infectious disease by creating novel, highly potent vaccines that are safer and more effective than current preventive options. Using the company's proprietary virus-like particle (VLP) and Novasome(R) adjuvant technologies, Novavax is developing vaccines to protect against H5N1 pandemic influenza, seasonal flu and other viral diseases. Novavax's particulate vaccines closely match disease-causing viruses while lacking the genetic material to cause disease, which provides potential for greater immune protection at lower doses than current vaccines. With an exclusive portable manufacturing system that allows for rapid mass-production of vaccines, Novavax is uniquely positioned to meet global public health needs.
Forward Looking Statements
Statements herein relating to future financial or business performance, conditions or strategies and other financial and business matters, including expectations regarding future revenues, operating expenses, and clinical developments are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Novavax cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which change over time. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the failure by Novavax to secure and maintain relationships with collaborators; risks relating to the early stage of Novavax's product candidates under development; uncertainties relating to clinical trials; risks relating to the commercialization, if any, of Novavax's proposed product candidates; dependence on the efforts of third parties; dependence on intellectual property; competition for clinical resources and patient enrollment from drug candidates in development by other companies with greater resources and visibility, and risks that we may lack the financial resources and access to capital to fund our operations. Further information on the factors and risks that could affect Novavax's business, financial conditions and results of operations, is contained in Novavax's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available at www.sec.gov. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this press release, and Novavax assumes no duty to update forward-looking statements.
SOURCE Novavax, Inc.
Mariann Caprino, +1-484-913-1213
http://www.novavax.com/
4.83$ up 7%...200SMA broken,...
Novavax's Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Candidates Trigger Robust Immune Response In Pre-Clinical Models
Wednesday November 8, 7:00 am ET
New Data Presented at World Congress on Vaccines, Immunization and Immunotherapy
MONTREAL, Nov. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc.'s (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) novel pandemic influenza vaccine candidates triggered a protective immune response in several pre-clinical studies, according to data to be presented for the first time today at the Fifth World Congress on Vaccines, Immunization and Immunotherapy.
ADVERTISEMENT
Novavax scientists created four vaccine candidates to protect against four different subtypes of human and avian influenza, including H5N1, the strain that global health officials believe could possibly set off a pandemic outbreak. These virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines, which have the three- dimensional structure of the influenza virus but don't contain genetic material, have been tested in three animal models, said Dr. Rick Bright, Novavax Vice President, Global Influenza Programs.
Data show each vaccine candidate triggered an immune response robust enough to protect against infection at very low doses of vaccine. Two of Novavax's vaccine candidates were tested in ferrets, the influenza animal model that is most relevant to humans. These vaccine candidates produced robust immune responses that provided protection against a variety of influenza strains, including strains not included in the vaccines.
Most influenza vaccines are made from proteins. When compared to a single flu protein of a 2002 influenza virus, Novavax's VLP vaccines raised and broadened the ferrets' immune response more than 3.5 times when tested against that virus. In addition, when the immune response was measured against a different influenza strain from 2004, the response generated by Novavax's VLP vaccines was more than eight times higher than that induced by the single flu protein.
"Our data demonstrate the potential for a single vaccine to protect against a range of influenza strains," Dr. Bright said. "This can be a critical factor in a pandemic situation, since a new vaccine would not have to be created every time the virus mutates," Dr. Bright said. "Our goal is to demonstrate in the clinic that our single H5N1 vaccine protects against new mutations of H5N1 viruses." Novavax plans to begin human clinical trials of its pandemic influenza vaccine during the first half of 2007.
While structurally similar to the live influenza virus, Novavax's VLPs do not have the virus's genetic material required for replication or infection. Upon vaccination, these particles attach to cells and trigger a natural immune response that is capable of protecting against influenza. Novavax also has the capability to scale up manufacture of its influenza vaccines rapidly using portable, disposable equipment. This unique manufacturing system does not rely on traditional egg-based methods for vaccine production, which are complex and require cumbersome equipment and many months of preparation.
The data were generated by Novavax and collaborators at the University of Pittsburgh's Center for Vaccine Research, the Southern Research Institute and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Quote from: Terliso on October 27, 2006, 02:41:47 AM
This one too ;) I have the target price, top of the channel & also the over head resistance @ $5.50...IMHO ;)
Nice day today ;).... I will sell NVAX just below the price channel a lot of overhead resistance
Thanks Ramsburg for this pick ;)
Yeaterday's Release..........
MALVERN, Pa., Nov 07, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- (NVAX, Trade) - Novavax, Inc. today announced that it will report its third quarter financial results in a press release to be issued after 7:00 a.m. EST on Nov. 14, 2006. The Company will hold an investor conference call to discuss its financial results at 10:00 a.m. EST on Nov. 14. The call will be hosted by Mr. Gary C. Evans, Chairman of the Board, and Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax. Other participants will include senior management of Novavax. A question and answer session will follow the financial results overview. The dial-in number for the conference call is 1-866-700-7477 (International: 1-617-213-8840), pass code 11738919.
A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available at www.novavax.com. Please connect to this website at least 15 minutes prior to the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be needed to hear the webcast. A replay of the webcast will be available for 90 days starting on Nov. 14 at www.novavax.com. A replay of the conference call will also be available by telephone beginning Nov. 14, 2006 at noon through Nov. 21. To access the replay, dial 1-888-286-8010 and enter pass code 43667975 followed by the number sign.
About Novavax, Inc.
Novavax, Inc. is committed to leading the global fight against infectious disease by creating novel, highly potent vaccines that are safer and more effective than current preventive options. Using the company's proprietary virus-like particle (VLP) and Novasome(R) adjuvant technologies, Novavax is developing vaccines to protect against H5N1 pandemic influenza, seasonal flu and other viral diseases. Novavax's particulate vaccines closely match disease-causing viruses while lacking the genetic material to cause disease, which provides potential for greater immune protection at lower doses than current vaccines. With an exclusive portable manufacturing system that allows for rapid mass-production of vaccines, Novavax is uniquely positioned to meet global public health needs.
SOURCE Novavax, Inc.
Mariann Caprino for Novavax, Inc., +1-484-913-1213
http://www.novavax.com
Copyright (C) 2006 PR Newswire. All rights reserved ********************************************************************** As of Friday, 11-03-2006 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 08-23-2006 for NVAX @ $3.98. For more information on Comtex SmarTrend? Alert, contact your market data provider or go to www.CSTADirect.com SmarTrend is a registered trademark of Comtex News Network, Inc. Copyright ? 2004-2006 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights reserved.
I am raising my stop on NVAX to 4.57, as, looking at the chart, I think there is the possibility of wednesday's gap and breakout could be a possible bull-trap fakeout. Overall pattern looks bullish but we do have a large rising wedge, and it is possible that NVAX could break to the downside, despite all the recent positive developments.
Currently NVAX has tested the gap support at 4.62 twice (today and yesterday). I would like to see bullish confirmation of this double test with a breakout of the intraday descending channel it has been traversing (clearly seen on the 5min chart). A break below 4.60 would suggest it will at least test the longer term ascending trendline again, which comes in around 4.30 just now.
There is also a possible bearish Wolfewave formation (though to be honest, I don't think the entry to this pattern is correct) with a downside target of 3.80, which could get tagged if 4.30 support gets broken.
Lets just hpe 4.60 holds.
Update:
NVAX has already closed the gap from the recent move, and is still trading above the breakout level.
We are just going to upgrade our stop level and wait for developments, so the new trading plan is:
Trading Plan:
Hold with a stop @ $4.50
Best regards,
NVAX ready to pop here - ascending triangle on the 5 min chart. Once 4.92 gets broken, it should blow through $5. But man is it a struggle!!! There's an awful lot sitting on the ask!
c;mon baby :o
Update:
NVAX has the Earnings Conference call scheduled for 10:00am, we are not going to take any risks with this position, and we'll sell it before that.
We'll get NVAX again for the 3SOF portfolio and just in case we'll let a standby re-entry plan with suggested buy near $4.50 (this plan will probably be adjusted later).
Trading Plan:
SELL NVAX at or near the open
Standby re-entry plan:
Buy NVAX again near $4.50
Best regards,
Quote from: Ramsburg on November 14, 2006, 06:34:28 AM
Update:
NVAX has the Earnings Conference call scheduled for 10:00am, we are not going to take any risks with this position, and we'll sell it before that.
We'll get NVAX again for the 3SOF portfolio and just in case we'll let a standby re-entry plan with suggested buy near $4.50 (this plan will probably be adjusted later).
Trading Plan:
SELL NVAX at or near the open
Standby re-entry plan:
Buy NVAX again near $4.50
Best regards,
Great call Rams, I bailed out at 4.94 in extended hours after seeing the earnings, they did not look good. I was surprised to get filled there and surprised that NVAX showed so much strenght in the face of those earnings. High R&D, lower contributions from product sales. Clearly the story is what is keeping the price up as always at this time of year.
Quote from: tokyopua on November 14, 2006, 09:34:53 AM
Great call Rams, I bailed out at 4.94 in extended hours after seeing the earnings, they did not look good. I was surprised to get filled there and surprised that NVAX showed so much strenght in the face of those earnings. High R&D, lower contributions from product sales. Clearly the story is what is keeping the price up as always at this time of year.
Thanks Toky ;)
About my re-entry «standby plan», I guess «near $4.50» was not good enough :-\ the low of the day was $4.61, I was watching it in order to buy at $4.55 or something like that, but it was a really fast «V» price action...
We'll keep monitoring NVAX, and we'll stand with the same standby plan «near $4.50» for now.
Well NVAX released earnings today:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061114/ph00839.html?.v=2
and gapped down slightly, hiting some heavy early selling. Earnings didn't actually look all that bad for me for a loss-making biotech in a heavy R&D phase. However, the main thing is we got a 4th consective tag of 4.61, confirming that this is definitely, has got to be support. In fact, NVAX rallied the rest of the day to close back where it opened, at 4.90 (suggesting people liked the CC). This is also the second straight close above the top of the rising wedge (which is normally bearish). I think this bodes well for NVAX, and if it closes above 5.00 again, should hopefully be on its way to test next reistance at 5.40. However, I should put in a word of warning that the CCI is looking like it could put in a short term sell signal soon. Notice the previous double topps in the CCI both signalled pullbacks to support.
So the plan remains for now: hold for 1st target area of 5.35-5.40, stop at 4.58, just below that key 4.61 support.
Update:
Yesterday I made a mistake planning the re-entry plan... I was pretty sure of a quick intraday sell-off on NVAX, but I was way too greedy setting my re-entry goal «near» $2.50.... $2.61 wasn't «near enough», and we missed a good intraday move to the highs of the day again.
I'm bullish on NVAX, but I don't feel like chasing it, NVAX is a volatile stock, so I'll just give an upgraded re-entry zone.
By the way, and explaining why I'm using this «near» and not a particular price: sometimes we need to be a bit flexible when acting on intraday price action, so «near» will be something like a few ticks above or below a particular level, but letting that to users own judgment. For example, yesterday I was trying to buy back NVAX at $2.55 during that morning sell off.
Standby re-entry plan:
Buy NVAX again near $4.60
Best regards,
Strong day for NVAX - just sold 20% @5.39, as per my plan, gain of 13.5% ;D
Stock gets a pop every time there's a bird flu story.
Chart still looking nice....Biotechnology & Drugs (15 new highs today)
Nice push to the upside off the 200-day MA.
Recent CandleStick Analysis
Bullish
Nov-15-2006 Bullish Engulfing
Support @ $5.26...4.69...4.58
Resistance @ $5.40...5.55...6.25
52wk Range: 2.84 - 8.39
Volume: 3,924,057
Avg Vol (3m): 1,341,620
Technicals
MACD is Very Bullish
Stochastic is Very Bullish
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
13.25%above 13-day MA
24.05%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 98
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $224.58
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 03/07/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform
Below are the 6 Month and 1 Year Charts.
Scottish trader - curious, how did you pick 5.39 as you profit taking target?
Was it because of the resistance level and double top from June? See my chart.
What if it busts through that soon?
Thanks!
Jason
Jason,
exactly - I was simply anticipating resistance kicking in around there as it was previous resistance. I only sold 20%, but am working more towards a profit-taking strategy so I can lock in small gains to cusion the rest off my position (something Melf taught me...) - take profits when targets get MADE, however you determine your targets. Next target that I see is the small ascending triangle target at 5.59. I'm not totally sure if I will take further profits if we hit that yet. It depends on the action leading up to it. The longer term pattern appears to have a target around 6.50 thoough.
For me if we clear 5.40-5.50 resistance, then 6.00 shouldn't be too far away, I think that it could be tough to clear, and that is probably where I will aim to close my position.
Thanks ScottishTrader,
That helps. As far as current support - do you agree that some support is now at about 4.9 - ie at the previous resistance for several days?
By the way, the weekly chart looks great. :) :)
Regards,
Jason
yep, my stop is just below that level... please don't hit it!!!
sorry, I would have updated this yesterday but 3sof was down.
Sold the rest of my NVAX shares at 5.31, on the break of the ascending trendline in blue on the 30min chart. 11.5% profit on the remainder of my postion. Thought it was shaping up for a nice upside breakout, but looks like the 5.40 was too strong this time. I may re-enter close to $5.
good luck mitchjas if you're still holding
probably today is time to buy again....
Novavax Files $100 Million Shelf Registration Statement
Wednesday November 22, 8:36 am ET
MALVERN, Pa., Nov. 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) today announced that it has filed a shelf registration statement on Form S-3 with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). Once declared effective by the SEC, this registration statement will enable Novavax to sell from time to time, in one or more separate offerings, up to $100 million of its securities, which may consist of common stock, preferred stock, warrants, or any combination thereof. The registration statement carries forward $42 million of securities unissued under Novavax's December 2005 registration statement. While the company has no current plans to access the capital markets, the shelf registration statement, once declared effective by the SEC, will allow the Board of Directors of Novavax to expediently approve for the Company to access the capital markets in the future.
A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state in which such offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities law of any state. At the time any securities are offered for sale, a prospectus supplement will be provided containing specific information about the securities to be offered and the terms of the offering made.
ScottishTrader - I am still holding. Any thoughts on what the $100 million shefl registration will do short term?
Thanks,
Jason
Don't know what this will do - so I sold for a 7% profit. Not going to risk a loss.
Good trading on your part ScottishTrader! :)
Jason
Update:
Looks like we've just missed NVAX again... our «near $4.60» buying suggestion was not good enough to meet NVAX's low of $4.75... :-\
I see an important support level near $4.60, so I'll just upgrade a few more ticks our re-entry zone, and keep waiting...
Standby re-entry plan:
Buy NVAX again near $4.70
Best regards,
Ramsburg,
I would love to re-enter on this stock, I have a strong believe on biotechs, since 2000 as you may remember. Are the 4,70 still valid or we should upgrade our buying point?
Dracull
Quote from: Dracull on December 04, 2006, 04:00:44 PM
Ramsburg,
I would love to re-enter on this stock, I have a strong believe on biotechs, since 2000 as you may remember. Are the 4,70 still valid or we should upgrade our buying point?
Dracull
Hi Dracull,
Yes, the $4.70 is still valid with the «standby trading plan». Don't forget we are using the «near» condition, which means that we may be a bit flexible with this price (more or less 5 ticks up or down).
NVAX has been very volatile for the past weeks, it's a pity that we missed our first re-entry attempt by a few ticks, but even with that volatility the stocks behavior has been neutral since then. We are not chasing it just because we want to use a relatively tight stop after we get in.
Best regards ;)
Update:
Cancel the Standby re-entry plan.
Reason: we are close to 100% invested right now, and we don't have room for NVAX.
best regardsm
This almost looks like one of Terlisos T3MLs to me.Just needs some volume to come into play.What do you think Terliso?
is nvax on anyone's radar at this level? will it drop more? soxguy
NVAX has been in my radar for a few days, I shorted the sucker at 4.89 after it broke the recent horizontal support.
Today's sell-off might just be the climax of the recent correction.
I'm paying close attention to how it closes in relation to the 200ema.
Would like to cover between 3.75 and 4 if allowed and then look to go long.
still watching this one drop. where's the bottom? soxguy
I just covered my short at 3.93......I think bottom has been found. I will go long as soon as I see confirmation
I knew Ramsburg was watching this for a while with a plan to get back in at 4.70. Glad that was cancelled since 3SOF must have seen something they didn't like. Wondering if that has changed at all?
Keep an eye on her.......
Support @ $4.09...3.91...3.62
Resistance @ $4.37...4.58...4.87
52wk Range: 2.84 - 8.39
Volume: 2,694,884
Avg Vol (3m): 1,352,850
Technicals
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
-2.63%below 13-day MA
-8.32%below 50-day MA
RS Rating: 70
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $224.58
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 03/07/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform
Below are the 6 month and 1 year charts...
I like the look of this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVAX&p=D&st=2005-05-02&id=p87212933748&a=93439447&listNum=-1
I have been a long-term holder of NVAX and I firmly believe good things are to come in 2007. I am expecting the CDC results sometime in January and there is the speculation of Govt. Money coming soon. However, I believe the strong bounce off the major support line makes for a lower risk entry point on NVAX, I believe it will quickly climb back above its 50 day and 200 day lines. Also NVAX is very close to forming a bullish cross and this will improve the trading picture as well. Good Luck and Happy New Year! ;D
NVAX just did a .618 Fibonacci retracement.It could be primed for a run up.
Is anyone else here following NVAX. BCRX received an govt. award of over 100 million today. NVAX, I believe will be receiving an award very soon. Also the long-term chart showed a nice bounce off the trend line. Although the stock is below its 50 and 200 day, I believe an entry here with a stop of around 3.76 would provide a low risk-high reward position.
See the chart below.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVAX&p=D&st=2005-05-02&id=p87212933748&a=93439447&listNum=-1
ready for bouncing back :o ?
NEWS!
Novavax and Collaborators Significantly Improve VLP Vaccine for HIV/AIDS
Tuesday January 16, 11:42 am ET
Plans Under Way to Advance New Vaccine Into Clinical Testing
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070116/phtu038.html?.v=72 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070116/phtu038.html?.v=72)
lotta volume intraday
nice news, nice chart >:D >:D
Quote from: la-onda on January 16, 2007, 12:00:37 PM
nice news, nice chart >:D >:D
Indeed great news! A vaccine against AIDS is however a few years a way but the flu season is just around the corner.
I am using today's weakness as a buying opportunity.
Heads up! NVAX up 14% on huge volume after hours....
More good news from Novavax. This time from the Bird Flu front:
Quote
New Data Support Novavax's Pandemic Flu Vaccines
Monday January 22, 4:25 pm ET
BALTIMORE, Jan. 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc.'s (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) novel virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines have been shown to be effective in generating protection against pandemic influenza as well as cross protection against different strains of the virus in pre-clinical studies, according to data presented here today at the Phacilitate Vaccine Forum.
"These are the first live-virus challenge data we have presented," said Dr. Rick Bright, Novavax's Vice President of Global Influenza Programs. "These new data are exciting because not only do our VLP vaccines trigger a robust immune response, but we have shown that a single vaccine can protect against two different strains of pandemic influenza."
The studies involved two of Novavax's H5N1 influenza VLP vaccines - one targeting the Indonesia strain of pandemic flu, first identified in 2005, and another targeting the Viet Nam strain, identified in 2003.
Both mice and ferrets inoculated with the Indonesia VLP vaccine showed a robust immune response in the study. When challenged with both the Indonesia and Viet Nam strains, the animals were protected against both viruses.
The ferret is the most relevant animal model for influenza because ferrets exhibit similar clinical symptoms as humans and are naturally susceptible to most human influenza viruses, including H5N1. "Ferrets are the most predictive model used for evidence of immunogenicity of influenza vaccines for humans," Dr. Bright said.
In addition, Novavax has shown that mice inoculated with the Viet Nam strain of the company's VLP vaccine were protected from that strain as well as from the Indonesian strain of pandemic influenza.
"These new data give us more confidence as we prepare to enter human clinical trials with our pandemic vaccine later this year," Dr. Bright said. "We also are increasingly confident about our ability to generate similar results in our seasonal influenza vaccine program as it progresses in pre-clinical testing."
The challenge studies were conducted in collaboration with the University of Pittsburgh, and the data have been submitted for peer-review publication. In addition, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will conduct live challenge studies using Novavax's VLP pandemic influenza vaccines.
"We expect the CDC to further confirm these new data before we enter the clinic this year," Dr. Bright said.
It seems the world conveniently has forgot about Bird Flu this year but the Virus is still posing a very real threat. I will not post link to recent outbreak of Bird Flu but would urge everybody to search Google news from time to time to get a feel about what is happening just below the surface.
If you do that you will see that a couple of new strains has been discovered within the last weeks. None of them seems to be Pandemic but one seems to be resistance against Tamiflu. There are also reports of Cat populations being infected (interesting as cats are genetically more similar to humans than birds).
Finally here is a link to a report predicting the result of a Bird Flu epidemic: http://www.plos.org/press/plme-04-01-vespignani.pdf
Don't start reading this unless you are serious about DD ;)
The premise of this study is that it will take 6 to 8 months to develop an effective vaccine. This is true with conventional vaccine development but Novavax can hopefully cut this time if worse come to worse.
As David would say: I will continue to hold NVAX :)
Quote from: cumulina on January 22, 2007, 04:30:08 PM
Heads up! NVAX up 14% on huge volume after hours....
cumulina,
Thanks for that news. Applause.
Too bad that it didn't come out a month ago, prior to NVAX having a TRIPLE breakdown at
4.72.
NVAX closed at 4.09, so a 14% gain at this mornings open would put it at 4.66, right below the
4.72 breakdown number.
Last week, when NVAX rallied, it failed at
4.71, right at that resistance.
The Kumo (Cloud) overhead resistance is at
4.7025 and
4.725.
So, some serious resistance at
4.70 - 4.72. A 14% gap up opening to 4.66 looks marked for a "Gap To Crap," so it would be impressive if NVAX can do anything more than the
4.70-4.72, and close there.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 23, 2007, 04:08:44 AM
So, some serious resistance at 4.70 - 4.72. A 14% gap up opening to 4.66 looks marked for a "Gap To Crap,"
The traders paying
4.70 - 4.72 for NVAX in after hours, when the stock was up 14%, got the worst of the "Gap To Crap." They bought it at TRIPLE breakdown resistance, and they're now down 11% in the position, on paper.
This morning's "Gap To Crap" was much less dramatic. Big volume in the first minute of trading, then another little volume spike, then NVAX ran out of gas.
4.27 - 4.26 was brief support in the 1-Minute chart, then volume came in again when that support got broken.
These are painful market lessons to learn, and they can be very costly:
1. "It isn't the news that matters. It's
the market's reaction to the news that matters."
Quote
so it would be impressive if NVAX can do anything more than the 4.70-4.72, and close there.
The market obviously isn't perceiving this as good news, or NVAX would have opened closer to where it traded in after hours, and players wouldn't be giving up their long positions so easily, in the first hour of trading.
2. "Don't buy a huge gap up into resistance."
Especially at TRIPLE breakdown resistance. I doubt that anyone who impulsively bought NVAX at/near 4.70-4.72 in after hours on "good news" knew how much resistance was there.
NVAX here is a much, much better entry into the stock.
3. When there's "good news" on the fundamentals, but the technicals disagree, at least consider paying attention to the technicals.
A 14% gap up in after hours on "good news," into TRIPLE resistance?
We probably want to pass on that trade. Or, short it, which I would imagine the technicians did in after hours. We aren't favored coming in and making a move against the trend in the market/stock.
In these situations, I never used to have a clue about what was going on, and was left wondering, "What the heck happened.? I thought that this was
good news!"
??? ::)
I hope that this helps to explain the "Gap To Crap" reaction to "good news."
Quote from: Michael on January 23, 2007, 12:12:22 AM
It seems the world conveniently has forgot about Bird Flu this year but the Virus is still posing a very real threat. I will not post link to recent outbreak of Bird Flu but would urge everybody to search Google news from time to time to get a feel about what is happening just below the surface.
The leading experts from US, China and WHO are meeting in Beijing and here is their assessment (please read careful!):
QuoteChina meeting warns of bird flu mutation risk
Mon 29 Jan 2007 9:45 PM ET
BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The deadly H5N1 form of the bird flu virus is rapidly mutating and the world must be on guard even though the disease has yet to be transmitted between humans, experts told a meeting in Beijing, Chinese media said on Tuesday.
The closed door conference, attended by experts from the Chinese and U.S. centres for disease control and the World Health Organisation among others, opened on Monday, the official newspaper of the Chinese Health Ministry reported.
"The experts said that despite there being no evidence yet of human-to-human transmission of bird flu, the highly pathogenic H5N1 form of the virus is continuing to rapidly mutate, and human infections keep happening," the Health News reported.
"H5N1 is a virus that has the potential for mass transmission, and people cannot slacken off in their control efforts," it added in a front-page story.
The report provided no other details, except that the meeting will discuss bird flu vaccines.
The virus has killed 164 people since 2003, according to the WHO.
"These might not be large numbers but we cannot let that lull us into a false security," Henk Bekedam, the WHO's representative in China, said in a speech at the meeting, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters on Tuesday.
"Right now, a growing public health challenge is overcoming effects of 'bird flu fatigue'," he said.
"Just because an avian influenza pandemic has not hit, or because there is lower media coverage at times, does not mean the very real and ongoing threat of one has gone away," Bekedam added.
"Right now, the H5N1 virus does not transfer easily from animals to humans or from humans to humans. But that could change at any moment and we must prepare for that possibility."
The H5N1 virus remains mainly a virus of birds, but experts fear it could change into a form easily transmitted from person to person and sweep the world, killing millions within weeks or months.
So far, most human cases can be traced to direct or indirect contact with infected birds.
http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=PEK200089&WTmodLoc=IntNewsHome_C4_Crises-6
I remember WHO last year said that it is not a matter if but when H5N1 mutate to a strain that can transmit from Human to Human. I hope it will not be this year but I would for sure like to hold a few Bird Flu stock (and non more than NVAX) when it happens.
Just because the media has been hit by 'bird flu fatigue' doesn't mean that the threat has disappeared. It basically means that you can buy most Bird Flu stock without any speculation premium. In fact a stock like NVAX is trading at what I consider to be their fundamental value based on the prospects of their Pipeline.
I already have a nice little profit on NVAX but I could end up with a substantial gain with a very limited downside :)
Hmmm... Bird Flu certainly came into the spot light again this weekend with the outbreak in UK.
From a pandemic point of view this is a non event. Any pandemic is very unlikely to start in Western Europe or US but most likely in Asia or Africa.
But that doesn't really matter. What is important is that the world once again focus on the potential threat of Bird Flu.
I do not recommend anybody to rush out and buy Bird Flu stocks in the premarket tomorrow but I do recommend everybody to have some Bird Flu exposure in the months to come. Not only as a speculative investment but also as a hedge if the Bird Flu becomes Pandemic. This will most likely spark a major correction in the stock markets and one or two Bird Flu stocks is a nice safety net ::)
After the DOUBLE pattern breakdown in mid-December, 2006 (the Bearish Rising Wedge, in blue, and the Symmetrical Triangle, in black), NVAX has failed twice to get back through that breakdown resistance: on January 16, and on theJanuary 22 - 23 after market and pre-market "Gap To Crap" on news (see last two posts above, if interested).
NVAX has fallen 20% from those two failed attempts at resistance, but now has the chance of a Double Bottom here, at 3.67 and 3.68 (drawn at the bottom of this chart).
The key to a Double Bottom, or "W"- Bottom, is the middle of the "W," which in this case, also is Key Resistance, 4.71. That's where the Bearish Rising Wedge broke down in December, and that's were the two rally attempts failed in January.
If NVAX can take out 4.71, that would put a target of 5.74 IN PLAY.
Math:
4.71 - The "W" pivot.
3.68 - The more conservative of the 3.67 and 3.68 lows
4.71 - 3.68 = 1.03 points + 4.71 = Target: 5.74.
Friday's candle missed being a perfect Bullish Hammer by only one penny. The real body is six cents; the tail is eleven cents, so almost twice as long as the real body. That's "close enough" in my book to qualify as a Bullish Hammer. No need to quibble about it, because the important thing here is that NVAX follows through to the upside now, and doesn't take out the 3.67 - 3.68 Double Bottom to the downside.
Decent risk:reward on a buy here, always excluding a gap down below 3.67 - 3.68 support.
Greetings
I've been lurking for a while around here, this is my first post.
Melf, I like your posts and graphs (not just in this case).
I'd like to point that if one is considering a rising wedge, well, it's target is at least the start, in this case 2.84...On the other hand, if one considers not a rising wedge but a rising channel then it's break target would be around where we are now, I think.
Probably will move up from here as indicators are oversold; it needs to clear a short time resistance at around 4.00 to really show it can move higher.
This is my view.
Regards
Doc
Quote from: Doc on February 20, 2007, 09:19:28 AM
Greetings
I've been lurking for a while around here, this is my first post.
Melf, I like your posts and graphs (not just in this case).
Doc,
Thank you, and welcome to 3SOF!
Quote
I'd like to point that if one is considering a rising wedge, well, it's target is at least the start, in this case 2.84...On the other hand, if one considers not a rising wedge but a rising channel then it's break target would be around where we are now, I think.
Right. As I explained in a prior post, the Bearish Rising Wedge in blue "morphed," or "changed into" a Rising Channel (dotted blue line in the daily chart). That pattern then morphed into the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black).
The Symmetrical Triangle broke at 4.82, and the 4.09 target MADE very quickly.
The Rising Channel broke at 4.72.
Quote
Probably will move up from here as indicators are oversold; it needs to clear a short time resistance at around 4.00 to really show it can move higher.
This is my view.
Typically, we don't want to see more than .618 of a rally get retraced. Some analysts prefer the more obsure .764 and .786 retracements. NVAX retraced about 80% of August - November rally, so that hurts upside prospects a bit, technically, and it could have some problems, even if only short-term, at your 4.00.
A near-term positive is the fact that NVAX just printed 4.87, which is a penny above Friday's high. It's pulled back from there, but that's at least a step in the right direction. It's at least trying to make something out of this "possible" Double bottom.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 20, 2007, 11:54:05 AMNVAX retraced about 80% of August - November rally, so that hurts upside prospects a bit, technically, and it could have some problems, even if only short-term, at your 4.00.
Doc,
Sorry, I told you wrong.
I checked that again. NVAX gave back 68.5% of the August - November rally, which still is more than I like to see, but it wasn't as bad as I initially thought.
NVAX is called higher this morning, at BID 4.04...ASK 4.05, on this news:
ROCKVILLE, Md., Feb. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) seasonal influenza vaccine produced robust and broad immune responses compared to other influenza vaccine types, according to a pre- clinical study published in the journal "Vaccine."
In the study, which appears in the online edition of the peer-reviewed journal "Vaccine," mice and ferrets were inoculated with Novavax's virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine. The VLP vaccine produced antibody responses that were between 1.8 and 7.4 times greater than antibody responses triggered by the comparator vaccines.
There remains an unmet medical need for more effective influenza vaccines. Traditional vaccines, which produce antibodies to the viral protein hemagglutinin, are effective in healthy adults but provide only limited protection among high-risk populations such as the elderly and patients with compromised immune systems. According to the study, Novavax's influenza vaccine triggered neutralizing antibodies against hemagglutinin. Novavax's VLP vaccine also produced antibodies against neuraminidase, which could lead to broader protection against viruses that mutate from season to season.
In both mice and ferrets, Novavax's H3N2 VLP vaccine raised antibodies against the 2002 Fujian strain of influenza as well as a broad group of seasonal flu viruses that had mutated over a five-year period. It is because of these annual mutations that traditional flu vaccines must be reformulated each year.
"The ability to elicit a broadly reactive immune response by a single vaccine against viruses from different flu seasons is an important advance," said Dr. Ted Ross, co-author and Assistant Professor of Medicine and Principal Investigator in the Center for Vaccine Research at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. "These results have implications not only for seasonal influenza, but also for emerging influenza strains with pandemic potential."
Well, the first assault was repelled.
Even if the volume is thinning going down, it'd better start moving up, or else...
Keeping an eye on it.
Quote from: Doc on February 24, 2007, 04:31:03 PM
Well, the first assault was repelled.
Even if the volume is thinning going down, it'd better start moving up, or else...
Keeping an eye on it.
Doc,
Right. 4.00s was resistance, as you suspected.
Unfortunately, Wednesday morning's 4.07 opening was yet another "Gap To Crap" on the news about the pre-clinical study. The high was right below the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line), which was at 4.085.
The 13 RSI also failed at Bearish Synchronicity with its shadow, the 21 RSI, and issued a sell at 3.89 on Thursday, which is in effect unless/until 4.08 gets printed.
NVAX looks very weak here. The 3.67 - 3.68 "possible" Double Bottom is important support. 2.84 still in IN PLAY from the December breakdown. If 3.67 -3.68 gets taken out, 2.65 will be IN PLAY.
Math:
4.71 - January 16 high, and pivot for the "W"-Bottom
3.68 - the more conservative of the 3.67 - 3.68 lows
4.71 - 3.68 = 1.03 points
3.68 - 1.03 = Target: 2.65
You're right, if it breaks down, that's the target.
Let's not look up and forget that it may come down.
Quote from: Doc on February 25, 2007, 02:00:41 PM
You're right, if it breaks down, that's the target.
Let's not look up and forget that it may come down.
Doc,
Well, it broke down. I guess all of those "Gaps To Crap" on good news were clues, huh?
2.84 still is IN PLAY, and now 2.65 also is IN PLAY on the break of 3.67-3.68.
More often than not, I put these breakdowns on the back burner, and forget to watch them, so let's try to keep an eye on it if it goes below 3.00.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 28, 2007, 06:51:46 AM
Well, it broke down. I guess all of those "Gaps To Crap" on good news were clues, huh?
2.84 still is IN PLAY, and now 2.65 also is IN PLAY on the break of 3.67-3.68.
More often than not, I put these breakdowns on the back burner, and forget to watch them, so let's try to keep an eye on it if it goes below 3.00.
You're right, those open gaps that fell back were clues. I'll keep it mind next time they happen.
Before the targets are made, a retest of the break zone is in order, don't you think?
Quote from: Doc on March 04, 2007, 03:50:10 PM
[Before the targets are made, a retest of the break zone is in order, don't you think?
Doc,
When it broke the Symmetrical Triangle at 4.55 last July, there was no re-test of the breakdown. It tanked, and the 3.02 target MADE without much of an attempt at a rally.
Re-tests of breakdowns are fairly common, but there might not be one here, either. Technically, NVAX did everything wrong that it could since the "Gap To Crap" to 4.71 resistance in mid-January.
It's in freefall, down 8 days in a row with no nearby support, so players might just wash it out.
Quote from: Melf Elf on March 05, 2007, 04:38:48 AM
[It's in freefall, down 8 days in a row with no nearby support, so players might just wash it out.
Down 9 days in a row. 2.84 MADE on 3½ times average 100 day volume.
2.65 still is IN PLAY, and it's still a knife-catcher.
Was thinking about playing this into the earnings on Wednesday.
Let me know what you think.
Hello, Melf
Well, 2,69 as low is close enough to be considered target made (3.65). You were right about the retest. I have no study on the matter but I'm under the impression that retests may be more frequent going up than going down.
It now has a defined descending channel; it's top and the area of the failed double bottom come in play around the 15th. Only a move above will show strength.
2ez, hello. I don't know if you intend to go long or short, but playing with earnings is risky, so it depends of what risk you want to take. The technicals seems to me clear and last session it went up to the middle of the channel, reversed and finished nearly at the lows of the day. Not encouraging for longs.
Looking to get back in.
any thoughts ?
NVAX's price is below the 200 and 50(below 200) a dead cross?
The linear regression is downtrending.
5th line (top) = 3.20
4th line = 2.91
3rd line = 2.60
2nd line = around 2.35
1st line (low) = around 2.00
RSI(2) just crossed 80 downwards from close to 100. It is currently at around 50.
I was playing with my 7 year old son with the paint program when we decided to do some some charting.
I picked NVAX because I recently received an alert from tradefreedom giving NVAX a Diamond Bottom (I'm not familiar with this yet) Event but did not check it right away.
I went to stockcharts to download it to paint.
While my son was charting, I can't help but think that the chart is starting to look good.
I decided to check out the NVAX thread and saw my notes on the linear regression/RSI(2) that I'm still learning to use.
It looks like the signal was a preparation to buy at the nearest support which was at 2.69.
I wonder if the 3rd linear regression line (which was at 2.60) moved up to 2.69 when the price went down to 2.69.
Currently, the RSI(2) is giving a signal to sell and is close to the top linear regression line.
I wonder if this would break out above the descending/horizontal resistance (because DNDN was also close to the top linear regression line when it gapped up), a start of an ascending triangle, or would it consolidate some more?
It would be interesting to see what price action would decide to do on monday.
Any thoughts?
Bump......
10Q out after the bell today. stock sold off all day. someone new something b4 the 10Q was reported.
NVAX filled the gap from end of March.It closed above the 50ma and broke through the descending wedge.If volume picks up it may be in play.
Novavax Announce that Candidates
Emerge for Varicella Zoster Virus Vaccine
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) announced that several candidates have
emerged from an ongoing discovery program to create a novel vaccine
for preventing disease associated with the Varicella Zoster Virus (VZV)
in older adults. These candidates have met certain significant scientific
criteria established by the Company and are now targeted for pre-clinical
development
AP
Out of the Gate: Novavax Rises
Wednesday October 31, 10:34 am ET
Novavax Gains Ground on Upgrade to 'Buy' As Analyst Praises Virus-Like Particle Technology
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of biotech drug developer Novavax Inc. rose Wednesday morning after an Oppenheimer & Co. analyst upgraded the stock, saying Novavax should report good news from its pipeline and could gain a major partnership due to its vaccine technology.
Kevin DeGeeter raised his rating to "Buy" from "Neutral," and set a price target of $6 per share. In December, he said, the company will likely report positive data from an early stage clinical trial of a vaccine designed to treat bird flu. The company may be able to win government contracts for the vaccine, he said.
The Rockville, Md., company is also developing a shingles vaccine, and DeGeeter said it will announce a new vaccine program during the fourth quarter.
Shares rose 38 cents, or 10.8 percent, to $3.90.
Novavax develops some of its drugs using virus-like particle technology. The company says VLP is used to build particles that are similar to viruses, but unable to replicate themselves. That means the patient can develop an immune response to the virus without becoming infected.
"We view Novavax as a next-generation vaccine platform company with a virus-like particle technology that offers the promise of a low-cost and more reliable approach to vaccine manufacturing," DeGeeter said.
As a result, he said, the company could enter a partnership with a large vaccine company in the next year to 18 months.
Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
Close Above the 13-day MA
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
7.28%above 13-day MA
14.00%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95
Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrade to Buy
Earnings Expected on Nov 13
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $238.73
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 11/13/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
Hi Setravis
Was up checking your post for the morning and seen this one. Looks really good , I liked the chart with PR and recent upgrade and earnings on Nov 13th.
I put limit order in for 4.20 then went to work,,Got in from work and seen that I got them for 4.11,how about that I think the Fed PR was why ,,Market was down because of it.
Will be planing my trade later tonight since I just got in from work
News out today...
Partnering with General Electric.
On my watch list NVAX, is brewing to run on the upside and possibly go up to $5.50 resistance....let's see;D
Still waiting for the right entry price...... ;D
NVAX breakout now, huge volume came in...... ;D
NVAX is holding up so well & leaving a nice candlesticks from the breakout... ;D
:'(
NVAX also down based on the Market conditions (like VPHM)
Yup, fake breakout for NVAX. If you are long in this current market, having a very tight stop is the key to survive in this game.
REPORTS POSITIVE RESULTS FROM PHASE IIa TRIAL:
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) announced
favorable results from a Phase IIa human clinical trial of its seasonal influenza VLP (trivalent)
vaccine candidate. The vaccine, which does not include an adjuvant, induced robust hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) responses, which have been shown to correlate with protection against seasonal influenza disease. The adverse events that were reported from the trial are similar in type to those reported for other approved influenza vaccines. Adverse events such as fever, chills, joint pain, muscle aches, headaches, and fatigue were reported at a higher frequency among vaccine as compared with placebo recipients. No serious adverse events have been reported to date. Subjects in the study continue to be monitored for safety through 6 months after vaccination.
updated chart scene...
Busted through the 50-day MA with some nice volume.
NVAX working on H1 N1 strain vaccine
INSIDER BUYING
52wk Range: 0.52 - 3.42
Volume: 1,520,395
Avg Vol (3m): 187,363
Technicals
Close Above the 13-day MA
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
69.13%above 13-day MA
43.89%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 17
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $61.97
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 05/08/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Outperform
Press Release Source: Novavax, Inc.
NOVAVAX Announces Publication of a Preclinical Study Demonstrating that a Virus-like Particle Vaccine Provided Protection Against Highly Pathogenic H1N1 and H5N1 Influenza Strains
On Tuesday April 14, 2009, 8:00 am EDT
H1N1 Virus-like Particle (VLP) Vaccine Candidate Based on the 1918 Spanish Influenza Strain Protected Mice and Ferrets Against the Spanish Flu and Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Bird Flu
ROCKVILLE, Md., April 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) today reported preclinical study results showing that an investigational H1N1 virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine based on the 1918 Spanish influenza strain protected against both the Spanish flu and a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza strain. The study, published in the March 25, 2009 online issue of the Journal of Virology, was conducted by scientists from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, GA and Novavax under a Collaborative Research and Development Agreement.
Novavax scientists designed and produced a recombinant VLP vaccine candidate against the 1918 H1N1 influenza strain. This 1918 influenza strain was responsible for more than 50 million deaths worldwide during the great Spanish flu pandemic. Mice and ferrets were vaccinated with VLPs by one of two routes: either by standard intramuscular injection or by administering a small drop of the VLP vaccine in the nose (intranasal immunization). All of the 1918 VLP-immunized animals were protected when exposed to a lethal dose of the 1918 influenza virus, regardless of the route by which the vaccine was administered. Remarkably, animals immunized by the intranasal route were also protected against a lethal dose of a contemporary, highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 virus strain, isolated from a fatal human case in 2004 (A/Vietnam/1203/2004 strain).
The H1N1 VLP vaccine candidate was made up of the hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), and matrix 1 (M1) proteins from 1918 Spanish influenza virus strains. These proteins, which were produced in insect cells, formed three-dimensional structures that mimic the 1918 pandemic influenza virus but without the genetic material needed for replication. The mechanism of action by which this H1N1 VLP vaccine candidate provided broad cross-protection is under further study, but the scientists described preliminary evidence that antibody cross-reactivity between the HA and possibly NA proteins of the H1N1 and H5N1 influenza were important.
"Unlike other non-live influenza vaccines, the VLPs are uniquely positioned to stimulate immunity through multiple mechanisms," said Dr. Penny Heaton, Chief Medical Officer at Novavax. "First, they contain HA protein that is the same structure as the live virus, which may stimulate HA antibodies of several types that not only prevent the virus from attaching to cells but also prevent the virus from fusing with cells. Second, the VLPs contain NA which may stimulate production of antibody that prevents spread of the virus down the respiratory tract. Finally, the structure of the HA and NA proteins and the way in which they are embedded in lipids on the surface of the VLP may activate the innate immune system providing protection against both the H1N1 and H5N1 strains," said Dr. Heaton.
Although cross protection against influenza strains of the same hemagglutinin or HA type has been achieved through the use of vaccines with adjuvants (e.g., cross-protection against H5N1 A/Vietnam and A/Indonesia strains), protection against strains with different HA types, as shown in this study, has not been reported. Cross-protection against different HA types is highly desirable for pandemic influenza vaccine candidates because it is not possible to predict the strain that may be responsible for the next pandemic with today's technology. A broadly cross-protective vaccine would be ideal for stockpiling in that it could be administered during the first wave of the pandemic while waiting for manufacture of vaccine specific to the pandemic strain.
Dr. Gale Smith, Vice President of Vaccine Development at Novavax, said, "The discovery that a VLP-based influenza vaccine candidate created through cell-based recombinant technology has the potential to protect against diverse strains of influenza has significant implications for both pre-pandemic and pandemic preparedness. A broadly protective vaccine administered prior to and during the first wave of a pandemic could prevent widespread morbidity and mortality from a newly emerged pandemic influenza strain and allow time for the development of strain-specific vaccines."
About Novavax
Novavax, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company creating novel vaccines to address a broad range of infectious diseases worldwide using advanced proprietary VLP technology. The company produces these VLP based, potent, recombinant vaccines utilizing new, and efficient manufacturing approaches. The Company has VLP vaccine candidates against seasonal influenza and potential pandemic influenza strains in phase II clinical development.
This report describes the second of two preclinical studies of Novavax's investigational H5N1 pandemic influenza vaccine announced this year that have shown different approaches to achieving broad protection against diverse influenza strains. As announced in February, a VLP vaccine with an HA based on several H5 strains showed broad cross-protection against different H5 strains. In the current study, an alternative route of administration resulted in cross-protection against different HA types. Novavax has shown in clinical trials that an H5N1 VLP candidate vaccine given by intramuscular injection is well tolerated and immunogenic in humans. Preclinical research on alternative pandemic influenza VLP vaccine approaches is expected to continue.
Additional information about Novavax is available at www.novavax.com and in the company's various filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Forward Looking Statement
Statements herein relating to future financial or business performance, conditions or strategies and other financial and business matters, including expectations regarding clinical developments, safety, efficacy and potency of our vaccines, and supply availability are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Novavax cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which change over time. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements or historical experience include risks and uncertainties, including the failure by Novavax to secure and maintain relationships with collaborators; risks relating to the early stage of Novavax's product candidates under development; uncertainties relating to commencing clinical trials and their outcome; risks relating to the supply and commercialization, if any, of Novavax's proposed product candidates; dependence on the efforts of third parties; dependence on intellectual property; competition for clinical resources and patient enrolment from drug candidates in development by other companies with greater resources and visibility, and risks that we may lack the financial resources and access to capital to fund our operations. Further information on the factors and risks that could affect Novavax's business, financial conditions and results of operations, is contained in Novavax's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available at http://www.sec.gov. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this press release, and Novavax assumes no duty to update forward-looking statements.
;D Yummy Yummy if you brought Friday!
Drugmaker shares rise on swine-flu outbreak.......
Novavax, which owns technology for creating vaccines, was rocketing ;)
52wk Range: 0.52 - 3.42
Volume: 52,291,341
Avg Vol (3m): 209,637
Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
Close Above the 13-day MA
Most Actives
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
176.43%above 13-day MA
154.03%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 15
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on May 8
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $97.77
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 05/08/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Outperform
Monday, April 27, 2009, 10:42am EDT | Modified: Monday, April 27, 2009, 2:32pm
Swine flu fear lifts Novavax stock
Washington Business Journal
Concern about the outbreak of the swine flu lifted the shares of Novavax Inc. on Monday as investors trolled for firms that might be called on to fight the disease.
Shares of Rockville-based Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) rose as much as $2.46, or 173 percent, to $3.88 per share in mid-morning trading.
"By the afternoon, that frenzy wore down to a doubling of Novavax's stock price to $2.83, making the local company the best performer among the new national Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index compiled by Yahoo Finance".
Last summer, Novavax announced that its experimental vaccine against one strain of avian influenza produced a strong immune response in humans. Novavax says its technology can cut the time it takes to manufacture a vaccine in half which could be seen as important to responding to a rapidly spreading infectious disease such as the swine flu.
Novavax was not the only stock jumping in response to the outbreak.
It took the possible pandemic outbreak of swine flu to spur Novavax to higher highs. The biotech makes a recombinant vaccine technology that could be essential should the flu spread like wildfire and vaccines to fight it become necessary to have in bulk on very short order. Even in the event it doesn't become a worldwide affliction, pharmaceuticals and others will no doubt be taking a closer look at its technology.
Vaccines have become big business since the shortage a few years ago with the government investing billions in stockpiling vaccines and pharmaceutical companies snapping up the vaccine makers. A company like Novavax whose technology can mass produce vaccines quickly would likely command more of a premium than what it trades at currently, even if those share prices have tripled over the past month.
Novavax's on-the-fly technology allows it to maneuver quickly regardless.
This company has mobile lab capabilities, that can make the vaccine on location from the current mutated state, therefore reducing the time it takes to make a vaccine. It also has India's Cipla, as a partner, which makes the generic tamiflu.
52wk Range: 0.52 - 3.88
Volume: 31,278,587
Avg Vol (3m): 1,542,470
Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
120.18%above 13-day MA
177.14%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 94
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on May 8
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $97.77
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 05/08/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Outperform
active in the pre market...
Swine Flu Index Takes Top Spot 6/4/09
Multiple vaccine companies made news on Thursday, sending the sector higher.
Today it was announced that the National Institutes of Health will test Novavax's (NVAX) VLP technology, which according to the company is able to produce H1/N1 targeted vaccines within weeks. Novavax said that it has already produced enough of the vaccine for animal testing, which the Centers for Disease Control plan to commence. Shares are skyrocketing today by over 50% on the news.
As a whole, the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is up by 7.2%. It is now beating the S&P 500 by 59.2% over the last month.
Generex Biotechnology (GNBT) also made news today, announcing that it will present at the American Diabetes Association's annual meeting, held Friday through Tuesday. The company specializes in drug delivery through mouth lining in treatment of metabolic diseases. Shares are up by 30% on the day.
Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB) is up by 14% today after Japanese researchers named its drug technology the "most promising mucosal adjuvant for influenza."
Alpha Pro Tech (APT) also made an announcement today, stating that it will report record second-quarter sales. The company cited its ability to increase manufacturing to meet accelerated demand for its respirator masks amid the swine flu scare. Shares are up by 9%.
The multi-billion dollar players are mixed today. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is up by 4% while GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is up fractionally. Gilead Sciences (GILD) is up by less than 1%.
Dynavax Technologies (DVAX) is giving back some of yesterday's gains. The stock is an industry laggard today, falling by more than -12%.
As of this writing the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is the top performing tickerspy Index over the last month, gaining 52.8%.
Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.
Tags: APT, DVAX, GILD, GNBT, GSK, HEB, NVAX, SNY
A 'Pandemic' Now Declared, Focus Back on Swine Flu Stocks
On Friday June 12, 2009, 12:00 pm EDT
The H1N1 virus is officially a pandemic, and vaccine stocks are responding.
Swine flu stocks are up again today, with some extending weekly gains to more than 20%. A number of companies released good news to end the week. From small-cap players to multi-billion dollar giants, shares are up big on high volume. Novartis (NYSE: NVS) announced today that it will have a swine flu vaccine ready by this fall. Shares are up by 4% on the news.
On Thursday, the World Health Organization raised its alert level on the virus to "Phase 6," indicating that it has officially become a pandemic.
As a whole the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is up by 2.5%. It is now beating the S&P 500 by 35.5% over the last month.
Generex Biotechnology (NASDAQ: GNBT) is leading the Index today with 10% gains. The company was granted five new patents for its drug delivery systems. The patents were awarded in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and Lebanon. The stock is still in negative territory this week by -3%.
Sinovac Biotech (AMEX: SVA) is adding another 3% to its industry-leading 30% weekly rally. On Monday the company announced that it had begun production of a swine flu vaccine, and noted that it could produce up to 30 million doses per year.
Vical (NASDAQ: VICL) has fallen from earlier highs, and is now trading up fractionally. Thomas Weisel initiated coverage of the company today with an Overweight rating and a $5 price target. The analyst cited Vical's proprietary technology, strategic partnerships, and licensing agreements.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) and Hemispherx Biopharma (AMEX: HEB) are both ahead by more than 4% today.
Pure Bioscience (NASDAQ: PURE) and AVI Biopharma (NASDAQ: AVII) are industry laggards today, falling by -3% and -6% respectively.
As of this writing the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is a top-three performing tickerspy Index over the last month, gaining 39.5%.
Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.
Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.
http://www.tickerspy.com/index/Swine-Flu-and-Bird-Flu-Stocks?refer=2028Y3
A 'Pandemic' Now Declared, Focus Back on Swine Flu Stocks
On Friday June 12, 2009, 12:00 pm EDT
The H1N1 virus is officially a pandemic, and vaccine stocks are responding.
Swine flu stocks are up again today, with some extending weekly gains to more than 20%. A number of companies released good news to end the week. From small-cap players to multi-billion dollar giants, shares are up big on high volume. Novartis (NYSE: NVS) announced today that it will have a swine flu vaccine ready by this fall. Shares are up by 4% on the news.
On Thursday, the World Health Organization raised its alert level on the virus to "Phase 6," indicating that it has officially become a pandemic.
As a whole the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is up by 2.5%. It is now beating the S&P 500 by 35.5% over the last month.
Generex Biotechnology (NASDAQ: GNBT) is leading the Index today with 10% gains. The company was granted five new patents for its drug delivery systems. The patents were awarded in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and Lebanon. The stock is still in negative territory this week by -3%.
Sinovac Biotech (AMEX: SVA) is adding another 3% to its industry-leading 30% weekly rally. On Monday the company announced that it had begun production of a swine flu vaccine, and noted that it could produce up to 30 million doses per year.
Vical (NASDAQ: VICL) has fallen from earlier highs, and is now trading up fractionally. Thomas Weisel initiated coverage of the company today with an Overweight rating and a $5 price target. The analyst cited Vical's proprietary technology, strategic partnerships, and licensing agreements.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) and Hemispherx Biopharma (AMEX: HEB) are both ahead by more than 4% today.
Pure Bioscience (NASDAQ: PURE) and AVI Biopharma (NASDAQ: AVII) are industry laggards today, falling by -3% and -6% respectively.
As of this writing the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is a top-three performing tickerspy Index over the last month, gaining 39.5%.
Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.
Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.
http://www.tickerspy.com/index/Swine-Flu-and-Bird-Flu-Stocks?refer=2028Y3
Novavax in multi-million Spanish deal on vaccines
Novavax in deal with Spain to complete development, sell genetically engineered flu vaccines
By Linda A. Johnson, AP Business Writer
On Tuesday June 30, 2009, 4:28 pm EDT
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) -- Vaccine developer Novavax Inc. has signed a deal with Spain's health ministry and a specialty drugmaker there to license its genetically engineered technology to produce pandemic and seasonal flu vaccines and build that country's first vaccine-making plant.
Novavax shares finished the day up 78 cents, or 31 percent, at $3.28 on the news.
Rockville, Md.-based Novavax told The Associated Press the deal, to be announced later Tuesday by the Spanish government, will bring the company development funding needed in the short term and will be worth tens of millions of dollars in future royalty and milestone payments once the vaccines are approved and marketed.
Novavax, Spain's Ministry of Health and ROVI Pharmaceuticals of Madrid are aiming to have the manufacturing plant running and win approval to sell the vaccines in the European Union in 2012. The plant is to be built in Granada, at an expected cost of about 20 million euro, or $28 million.
Novavax, a development-stage company with no marketed products, is in midstage testing in the U.S. of a vaccine against swine flu, or H1N1 flu, using the same technology to produce vaccines more quickly and cheaply than the traditional method of growing the key vaccine component in chicken eggs, a process that takes several months.
Novavax developed what's called virus-like-particle technology to make vaccines. The technology genetically engineers a particle that looks like a flu virus, but contains contains only three of its eight genetic building blocks, enough to make the shell of the virus and key proteins on its surface, Singhvi said.
"It's like a decoy of the virus, but the immune system recognizes it as if it were the flu virus" and mounts a vigorous immune response, he said. "It cannot replicate, and it cannot cause illness."
The company is aiming to get approval to sell both pandemic flu vaccines and seasonal flu vaccines in the U.S., also by 2012.
Spanish government agencies will provide 60 million euros, or about $84.1 million, to complete late-stage testing of the vaccines and gain marketing approval in the European Union and eventually elsewhere. In addition, ROVI will make an immediate $3 million equity investment in Novavax, at a 10 percent premium to the company's $2.50 closing price on July 29, and will provide additional development funding if needed.
"This is a huge validation of our technology," Rahul Singhvi, president and chief executive of Novavax, said in an interview. "This is going to enable us to go to market," both with vaccines made by ROVI and with its own products.
ROVI will use the same technology to make its vaccines.
Virus-like-particle technology is behind Merck & Co.'s cervical cancer vaccine Gardasil. Other companies working on flu vaccines are using the technology in laboratory testing, but Novavax is the only company using the technology that has advanced to midstage testing in people for flu, Singhvi said.
ROVI, which makes and sells a version of the blood thinner heparin in about two dozen countries in Europe, Asia and South America, will have exclusive licenses to sell the vaccines in Spain and Portugal, plus nonexclusive licenses in Europe, Latin America and Africa. The company does contract manufacturing for other drugmakers, including filling syringes with various vaccines.
Novavax will retain exclusive licenses for the vaccines in North America, Asia and Australia and also would be able to sell them in other countries, except Spain and Portugal.
The planned Granada plant would be able to make more than 15 million doses of seasonal flu vaccine a year, plus surge capacity to produce many more doses in the event of another pandemic flu, said Tom Johnston, vice president of strategy at Novavax.
That's intended to supply the market in Spain, which has more than 43 million people and is the world's eighth-largest economy, with some remaining for other parts of Europe, Latin America and Africa.
Novavax stock soars on license deal...
Novavax Inc. stock has soared on news that it's negotiating a multimillion-dollar deal to license out its flu-vaccine-making technology to a Spanish pharmaceutical partner that plans to further test and produce seasonal and pandemic flu vaccines for several European countries.
The agreement is a considerable win for Novavax, which like many other area biotechs, had been hunting for larger partners to supply some much-needed cash through the downturn and take its clinical programs forward. "We continue to discuss opportunities with other pharmaceutical companies and governments to implement this compelling influenza vaccine technology around the globe," said Rahul Singhvi, Novavax president and CEO.
52wk Range: 0.52 - 3.88
Volume: 33,151,400
Avg Vol (3m): 5,036,210
Technicals
Most Actives
Stochastic - Bullish
Last Price Quote is:
-9.10%below 13-day MA
39.40%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: N/A
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $90.07
P/E Ratio: 10.26
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A
Companies start shipping U.S. seasonal flu vaccine
Mon Jul 27, 2009 7:24pm EDT
CHICAGO, July 27 (Reuters) - Two U.S. flu vaccine makers have started to ship seasonal flu vaccine to health providers preparing to juggle both seasonal flu and swine flu vaccination programs, they said on Monday.
Both Sanofi Pasteur, the vaccines unit of Sanofi Aventis (SASY.PA), and CSL Biotherapies, a unit of Australia's CSL Ltd (CSL.AX), said they had begun shipping seasonal flu vaccine to health providers in the United States.
Health officials face a daunting dual vaccination program during the Northern Hemisphere autumn aimed at preventing deaths and disease from both seasonal and the H1N1 swine flu.
European health officials said on Friday they have begun a fast-track process for reviewing data on pandemic flu vaccines in hopes of getting drugs to protect against the new H1N1 virus before the start of flu season in the Northern Hemisphere, likely in September.
The European Medicines Agency said it is reviewing data from manufacturers as they become available, a step that could speed approval. Shares of several smaller vaccines makers rose sharply on Monday, with Vical Inc (VICL.O), Novavax Inc (NVAX.O) and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX.O) touching new highs.
Sanofi said the early shipment of its Fluzone vaccine -- for infants 6 months and older through adults -- was meant to assist public health workers in immunization planning.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention broadened its recommendations for seasonal flu vaccine -- saying last week that all children over the age of 6 months should get one, in part to lower the overall burden of respiratory disease when autumn and winter comes.
Sanofi said it expects to supply more than 50 million doses of Fluzone vaccine to the United States for the 2009-2010 season.
CSL said it is on track to deliver all 8 million doses of its seasonal flu vaccine before the end of September. The company said in a statement it is also moving quickly to develop a vaccine to address the H1N1 pandemic.
The company started clinical trials of its pandemic vaccine in humans on July 22.
At least 50 governments have placed orders or are negotiating with drug companies to secure supplies of H1N1 vaccines.
Drugmakers Roche (ROG.VX), Gilead Sciences (GILD.O) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) have benefited from a worldwide rush to secure supplies of their antiviral drugs to fight the fast-spreading swine flu. Other vaccine makers working on H1N1 shots include Novartis (NOVN.VX), Baxter International (BAX.N), AstraZeneca's (AZN.L) MedImmune arm, and Solvay (SOLB.BR).
Each year, seasonal influenza alone is involved in between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths globally, the WHO estimates.
I think NVAX will continue to see its products purchased worldwide.
Short sighted traders ran down...rebound...
52wk Range: 0.52 - 3.88
Volume: 22,163,523
Avg Vol (3m): 6,218,490
Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
39.52%above 13-day MA
65.66%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Aug 7
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $302.81
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 08/07/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Outperform
Stocks Hitting High Notes...
When a stock hits a fresh high, it can mean that it's on its way to greatness -- or that it has run its course. Even with the risk of the latter, searching for these outperformers can reveal companies that are doing something right, much to their investors' delight.
Not too late!
I don't think your too late....fasten your seat-belt! We'll see what you think when it doubles again!!
52wk Range: 0.52 - 5.23
Volume: 27,022,192
Avg Vol (3m): 5,826,260
Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
41.65%above 13-day MA
77.05%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 98
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Aug 7
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $302.81
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 08/07/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Outperform
updated chart scene...
updated chart look...
NOVAVAX Elects James F. Young to Its Board of Directors
ROCKVILLE, Md., April 7, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Novavax, Inc. (NVAX, Trade ) announced today that it has appointed James F. Young, Ph.D., to its Board of Directors. Dr. Young will be an independent Board Member effective immediately.
Dr. Young has over 30 years of experience in the fields of molecular genetics, microbiology, immunology and pharmaceutical development. He was previously President of Research and Development, including responsibility for regulatory affairs, at MedImmune where he was instrumental in the development of FluMist(R) and Synagis(R). In 2005, Dr. Young was awarded the Albert B. Sabin Humanitarian Award. Prior to MedImmune, Dr. Young was influential in building the department of molecular genetics at Smith Kline & French Laboratories (now part of GlaxoSmithKline) and culminated as director, department of molecular genetics.
"We are very pleased to welcome such an accomplished and distinguished member of the biotech industry to Novavax's Board of Directors," said Stan Erck, Executive Chairman of Novavax Board of Directors. "His extensive experience and knowledge in the vaccine arena will be a tremendous advantage to Novavax as the company moves forward to advance our pipeline products."
Prior to GlaxoSmithKline, Dr. Young was on the faculty of the department of microbiology at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, NY. Dr. Young received his doctorate in microbiology and immunology from Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, Texas and Bachelor of Science degrees in biology and general science from Villanova University.
About Novavax
Novavax, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company creating novel vaccines to address a broad range of infectious diseases worldwide, including H1N1, using advanced proprietary virus-like-particle (VLP) technology. The company produces potent VLP-based recombinant vaccines utilizing new and efficient manufacturing approaches. Novavax is committed to using its VLP technology to create country-specific vaccine solutions. The company has formed a joint venture with Cadila Pharmaceuticals, named CPL Biologicals, to develop and manufacture vaccines, biological therapeutics and diagnostics in India. Additional information about Novavax is available on the company's website: www.novavax.com .
Forward Looking Statement
Statements herein relating to future performance, conditions or strategies and other matters, including expectations regarding the development of the Company's vaccines are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Novavax cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which change over time. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements or historical experience include risks and uncertainties, including the Company's ability to progress its product candidates in preclinical or clinical trials; clinical trial results; even if the data from preclinical studies or clinical trials is positive, the product may not prove to be safe and efficacious; the rate and progress of manufacturing scale-up; and the Company's ability to obtain adequate financing in the future through product licensing, co-promotional arrangements, public or private equity or debt financing or otherwise. Further information on the factors and risks that could affect Novavax's business, financial conditions and results of operations, is contained in Novavax's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available at www.sec.gov . These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this press release, and Novavax assumes no duty to update forward-looking statements.
SOURCE Novavax, Inc.
Encouraging Results from Novavax
Zacks Equity Research, On Tuesday March 30, 2010, 10:40 am EDT
Recently, Novavax (NasdaqGM: NVAX - News) announced final results from a phase II trial of its trivalent seasonal influenza Virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine in adults 18-49 years of age. Initial results from the trial were reported in 2009.
The initial analysis carried out on 190 people (aged 18 to 49 years) showed strong immune system responses against three flu strains (H3N2, H1N1 and B) without any major adverse events.
The complete study was conducted on 232 people out of whom 49 were on placebo while 19 received another trivalent influenza vaccine Fluzone at 15 mcg/dose. Novavax's VLP vaccine was administered in two dosages of 15 mcg (83 candidates) and 60 mcg (81). It has been observed that the VLP vaccine induced a robust hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibody response against all the three strains.
Novavax is conducting another head to head trial of its VLP vaccine with Fluzone in adults above 60 years of age. Results of this trial are awaited.
The company also came out with positive results from the first stage of a two stage study evaluating the safety and effectiveness of its VLP vaccine against the H1N1 virus. This study is being conducted in collaboration with Avimex Laboratories of Mexico and GE Healthcare. If final results are encouraging enough, Novavax is looking at registering the vaccine in Mexico.
At the time of announcing fourth quarter results, Novavax said that it has identified a vaccine candidate for the prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The company plans to complete preparations for its Investigational New Drug (IND) filing for the vaccine in 2010.
Zacks Investment Research
updated chart look...
ROCKVILLE, Md., Feb. 9, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) a clinical-stage vaccine company, announced today that Dr. Gregory Glenn, Chief Medical Officer of Novavax, will be presenting safety and immunogenicity data from its pivotal 2009 A/H1N1 virus-like particle (VLP) pandemic influenza vaccine clinical trial in Mexico, at the invitation-only 7th WHO Meeting on Evaluation of Pandemic Influenza Vaccines in Clinical Trials. The meeting is being held February 17-18, 2011 at the WHO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland where Dr. Glenn will be part of a session entitled: "Pandemic and Potentially Pandemic Vaccines Developed Using New Technologies." Dr. Glenn's presentation is entitled: "Rapid Response during the 2009 (H1N1) Pandemic in Mexico with an Influenza VLP Vaccine." The presentation will be available at www.novavax.com under the Investors/Events tab after the event.
About Novavax
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, employs it's cutting edge technology to create next generation vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases, such as pandemic and seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The company's proprietary VLP technology and unique disposable system enables rapid vaccine development and production where and when it's needed, worldwide. For more information about Novavax, please visit www.novavax.com .
SOURCE Novavax, Inc.
Pre-Market Mover...
Novavax, Inc.(NasdaqGM: NVAX )
Pre-Market Real-Time: 3.40 0.80 (30.77%) 8:35AM EST
Volume @ 553,000