Here I intend to give a study on the momentum play.
I would like to scan all the stocks from daily data and try to find out the stocks with the
following features:
1. it is one of the biggest gainers of the day;
2. it is closed near the high;
3. volume > 5x normal, and > 0.5mil
4. it breaks out either from flat base or from important resistance
5. it is the first day move
I would like to see the chance of follow through move.
That is, if we buy at the openings in the second day, what will be the chance it will
continue its up move.
September 2:
Momentum play picks (9):
tick gain(%) sector news vol (mil) reason
1. FNSR 28.57 tech: networking good profit project 16(8x) gap up, break $1.13
2. NWRE 26.97 tech: networking sales outlook 3.0(25x) gap up, year high
3. ASTT 26.79 tech: semi equip none 0.475(7x) break out flat base
4. POCC 23.21 material sales none 1.0 (8x) break out
5. TGC 21.43 oil none 1.3 (12x) almost break out
6. BPUR 19.46 biotech none 0.95 (5x) break out $1.60
7. CNLG 19.66 tech: electronics none 1.1 (8x) break out $2.0
8. CHRZ 17.5 tech:IT merger rejected 1.2 (8x) break out from base
9. HEC 11.90 oil none 6.8 (6x) break out $0.68 resistance
:o :o :o
Now THAT looks like a winning strategy!
Did you not have any loosers at all?
Congratulations.
Cumulina,
This is like getting the Lotto numbers right the day after they have been published ;D
When that is said I think it is a very interesting list and approach.
Shawfund - If it is not too much work it would be fantastic to have a list like this from time to time. I am pretty sure that there is a least one winner everyday in this list if not more!
The Knobias report has a similar list to get inspiration from.
Mike
Hi,
1. I will try do do a one month (4 weeks) study if time allowed.
2. I will try to publish one list per day during this one month period.
2. Each list will have a maximum number of 10 picks.
It could be less if no enough stocks meet the 5 conditions I gave in my previous post.
3. The picks are limited to NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ stocks. Because I do not have
available historical data for OB stocks, no picks from OB stocks for this study.
3. I will publish the performance of all the stocks in previous picks.
The performance will be "one day performance", "one week performance" and
"one month performance";
4. At the end of the study, I will give a statistics analysis and may design some trading strategy based on the findings.
The purpose of the study is to try to identify early moves and maximize the profit.
VPHM, for example, made its first move on May 2, 2005.
It went up from $1.67 -> $2.16 on that day and breaks out the short term resistance of $2.05.
In the following moves, it breaks an important resistance of $3.00 and the stock never looked back since then.
If we can identify the early move and took a position, the investment return will be much bigger.
have to give you applause for this one......... great study and keep up good work, and I'm looking forward to see how these stocks perform ...
Same for me. Keep up the good work.
Amarens
Hmmmmm...
Very interesting - looks like a valuable study.
Thank you for your work.
Here is the performance table from September 02 picks.
Please be noticed tht POCC has been deleted from the list because I made wrong selection
(its closing price of $0.69 on Sept 02 is well off of its high $0.79).
News from the picks:
1. BPUR: CTO, co-founder resigned
2. HEC: 2 mill share buy back copmpleted.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4897;image)
Today's picks will be listed later today after all data become available.
Hello:
Looking at the first 15 minute candle of today - of each stock - is telling the directiion of the day in almost all of the stocks. 7 of 8 ?
I like this kind of new art -
Thank you for your work.
Picks today. I could not find many. If any one of you has any candidate, please let me know and I can add it.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4904;image)
The calculation of percentage gain for today is based on today's open and today's close.
Observation One:
If there is a big gap up at the opening, better wait for at least half hour before put any money in it.
BPUR is an example. Also, it released a bad news today. Both resulted in the price decline.
But it is still higher than previous resistance level (support level now) - $1.60.
One of my picks has been picked up by David tonight.
I picked it one day earlier than him.
It opened today at $14.00 and closed at $14.84, after hours is $15.10.
The reason of the pick: good earning projection.
So, if the gain is due to fundamental reasons, it has better chance to continue the run.
Shawfund,
Great work here! Applauds and a big (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3070) (on the cheek!)
Wondering if David found NWRE here!
Performance of yesterday's picks:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4949;image)
It is normal to have a pull back after big gis from two penny stocks.
Let us find out what they will perform in the following days.
Today's picks will be given later.
September 7 Picks:
It seems that the market becomes really hot these days. Many tech stocks are due for a run.
AMD just broke out the flat base (see my chart in AMD stock picking thread).
STX reversed today and will have a short term run.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4960;image)
Observation 2:
If the stock gained too much (50% or more) in one day, it is better to wait for a pull back.
One Day Performance of yesterday's picks:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=5028;image)
Today's picks will be given later.
Tech on fire!!!
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=5037;image)
Some of yesterday's picks are among the biggest gainers today such as TFSM, HIV, GNVC.
Any gain > 5% is considered top 95% gains of the day.
Nice work...applause!
The result of yesterday's picks:
Today's pick
Observations:
1. semi, bio sectors very hot recently. Many in year-high or uptrend
2. after strong run, most of the stocks usually pulled back
3. fundamental will play out eventually
Will give more detailed analysis after one month.
shaw, applaud, great analysis and study. I am seeing some great theory/model in brewing. Good work. Keep it up.
Hi shawfund
Seen BPUR on you're post and didn't know if you still keep an eye on it but thought I'd let you know.Netsteering reported today David Judelson:Director bought 20,000 shares @ 1.362 transaction date was 08-25-05.
Good luck trading
wrangler
Shawfund,
At the beginning of this thread you mention five features in making up momentum. I'm trying to understand momentum in trading:
"1. it is one of the biggest gainers of the day;
2. it is closed near the high;
3. volume > 5x normal, and > 0.5mil
4. it breaks out either from flat base or from important resistance
5. it is the first day move "
Are there other features to look for? Or, can they vary from investor to investor?
And, one more question, I hope I don't sound stupid. How would you define "important resistance"? I do understand support and resistance.
Thanks, John
Here is the first complete result of the momentum picks I made on Sept 2.
Some of the picks did give big returns such as TGC - 132%, FNSR - 31%, NWRE - 24%
There are some losers as well such as BPUR, CNLG and HEC.
So we need to check what is the reason for the big break-out before committing money in it.
Among the winners, I understand that FNSR and NWRE are due to their early announcement that they expect good 3rd qt earnings and good guidance.
But TGC I don't understand. Anyone can give some inside look why it gained so much the last few days?
TGC : on the move