Should get up to US$13 / CDN$17.50 pretty fast. :)
I've been following this thing for 9 months now and i finally feel confident enough to post something about it. Sierra Wireless is a Canadien company that does business in wireless broadband and other wireless communications. They have huge market share in Canada and Asia and solid share in North America with some exposure in Latin America and Europe. They just announced three fairly large deals. The largest was one with Lenovo, an Asian laptop maker.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050921/215843.html?.v=1
The other two were smaller deals with Cingular and Manx Telecom.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051031/316186.html?.v=1
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051024/245914.html?.v=1
SWIR had management problems (bad management led to loss of major deals with Palm) earlier this year and fell from 45 to 6. They have been turning over management and working on relations with a whole bunch of companies. Very strong earnings recently (surprised by .10) and working on turning profitable again. Plus a great trend with solid support at around $10.75-10.80.
SWIR is in a trading range right now with strong support at $9.80 and strong resistance at just under $12.00. Recently, the 50dma crossed above the 200dma. Possible macd pushing over 0 could mean a push through resistance. Then, this thing will gap to 15 very quickly (resistance from before huge drop to single digits).
Alright here's one of the charts I promised. I'll get the other one up soon.
I guess I need to set price targets...
Since all news has been worked into this price... and there is only a small possibility of a deal with Dell and little expectation of that, any major deal like that will push this into low 20's (usd) in 48 hrs. However... I feel that the highest this will go before next quarter's earnings is around 15 (usd). It has set up a very strong support around $9.8 or $10 so will not fall more than 10% but I think this thing will break out on any news and go up to 15. Then, depending on deals or operations, if SWIR shows improvement and guides towards profitability next yr... we could see another jump.
So:
$15 is my 1 to 2 month target
$25 is my 4 month target
I dunno now that I'm lookin at my posts... should this be on long term picks? I think we could have some good short term action but long term this thing looks really good too... what do y'all think?
Looks like SWIR is coming to the end of an ascending triangle. We even had a pennant formation intraday... This thing needs a breakout in the next 2 days in a big way and we could see it. If it does go... it'll head up to 15 very quickly. Otherwise could fall to support around 11 or even 10. Tomorrow and Thursday are key though! Keep an eye on it.
This thing is breaking out of the ascending triangle today! Up 9% on more than double avg. volume. It's the breakout I was looking for. Should fill the gap to 15 quickly... probably by Wednesday next week or maybe even by Tuesday. Here's the old long term chart. I'll get the updated breakout chart up by the end of the day unless one of y'all wants me to put it up now.
Nice pick dwest ! Applaud your work.
From looking at the 3 month chart.Looks like a breakout from,
Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) Pattern has formed. Just IMHO of course.
Also had crossover of the 50-day/200-day EMA (The Golden Cross) back in the middle of October.
Earnings have been up for the last 3 quarters.
Support @ $11.46...11.07...10.34
Resistance @ $11.80
MACD is Bullish
Stochastic is bullish
Technicals
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
10.05%above 13-day EMA
20.10%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 98
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $289.62
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: -0.856
Next Earnings: 01/25/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform
Thanks setra for puttin the chart and TA up for me. Just a few comments of my own:
The strong close and the 3-4 times normal volume today suggests that this breakout could very easily lead higher. SWIR looked like it might close off of its highs but then in the last 15 minutes of trading it ran up another 2.5%.
RSI indicating slightly overbought but SWIR has a gap to fill to 15 now that it has broken 12.25. Strong MACD that's bouncing higher.
This chart shows a long term view of SWIR with my sell targets circled (15.94 and 22.44). I'm liking the volume by price charts calven is using so here's my shot at one. I drew in the strong supports and the strongest near term resistance based on the volume by price. Remember this thing went to 45 last year y'all.
Remember to put chart setting on LINEAR instead of LOG for price by volume.
You have the right concept... I think a more appropriate trendline would be drawn just above the bottom of the first "price by volume" bar. So im thinkin 14.50 for 1st resistance and 16.00 for second resistance....
Alright I'll fix it tomorrow... I'm so used to using log ;D. Thanks for checkin it out though. And the 14.50 level makes sense and is what I was looking at before because that is around the top of the gap that SWIR needs to fill.
Alright I think these charts are better... depending on what time length you look at... there are different resistance levels. They are drawn in w/ heavy red lines. Check it out. My prices targets are still where I said they were before though.
Awesome chart work! - Applaud ;)
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/comment/gbs/10253935.html
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/comment/gbs/10253768.html
Looks like I have some support from an "expert." ;D
I'm off of school for the rest of the week so I'll be able to watch the market for tomorrow at least. I've got to get some research in tomorrow... it's been a while since I've run a scan :D. I was up almost 60% on paper this week ... too bad I didn't have any money to put in :-\. ANAD, LTXX, SWIR, and SGTL have been kind. CYTO and TMTA have kind of sat.
Alright an updated chart for y'all. This one is really busy so I'll try to write out what all I tried to put on the chart. Great breakout from descending triangle last week on good volume. Trend lines are getting steeper and steeper slope... also more sign for a bullish trend continuation. RSI not indicating overbought... yet. Some resistance at 13 from price by volume bar but also from recent price action. 4 solid support levels suggested by the chart (11.00, 11.20, 11.70, 12.20). Will see 14.50-15.00 range quickly if we can get out of the short term ascending triangle (is that possible? :D) and break through 13.
An update. Fell through 2 support levels but 2 solid support levels around 11.50 and 50% retracement level at just below the hammer today. Check out the charts. 11.50 level is key... could bounce off of the retracement level today but I'm not sure about the volume.
Look to buy back on any bounce off of the retracement level with some volume or if it falls to 11.50.
Just keep an eye on this one... very strong reaction to subpar guidance dropped this thing but could be one to get into again. Just take a look. I'll try to post a chart later.
Wow wish I had shorted this the other day closed down -21% and during the trading range today it was down over -30%.
Quote from: nullzero on July 28, 2006, 06:31:11 PM
Wow wish I had shorted this the other day closed down -21% and during the trading range today it was down over -30%.
If you had shorted $1000 worth yesterday afternoon and covered this morning at 11.50, you could have then gone long and made around 40% in less than 24 hrs ;D
I am going to hold all of my shares... I'm not sure whether I would try to buy more if I could. If you are considering getting in, just be careful. Only about 10% more to go before extremely strong resistance... and I don't know how share price is going to react tomorrow anyway after such a crazy day today. Almost 9m shares traded today... 15 times the average volume. Anyways here are the charts I promised.
EDIT: Everywhere I say tomorrow... I mean Monday. Tomorrow as in next trading day :D.
Yeah who knows where it will go monday. Im not going to touch it long or short it can go either way. Might make a nice day trade though if your trading on the flow... possibly a quick 3% gain would be easy if timed right.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Sierra Wireless, Inc. engages in the development and marketing of wireless communications products that provide mobile professionals with data and voice access to wide area wireless networks. Its products include wide-area modems for mobile computers; wireless PC cards; embedded modules for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs); and rugged vehicle-mounted modems. The company's products permit users to access wireless data and voice communications networks using laptop computers, handheld mobile computing devices, or vehicle-based systems. Its products are primarily used by businesses and government organizations to enable their employees to access a range of applications, including the Internet, e-mail, corporate intranet, remote databases, and computer aided dispatch. In addition, the company offers professional services to OEM customers, including wireless design and integration to provide built-in wireless connectivity for notebook computers and other portable computing devices. The company sells its products through indirect channels, including wireless operators, resellers, and OEMs worldwide. Sierra Wireless was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Richmond, Canada.
SWIR is down on heavy volume, I think it is a good short ;)
Target on this bearish pattern is @ $9.00 bucks
Nice I considered shorting SWIR but I think the morning will be volatile from shorts covering and day traders going long. I may take a look at it if it decides a trending direction. Also I suppose how monday plays out my guess would be a down day for the markets but you can never tell anymore with the volatility and randomness of the markets.
A few quick things that I wanted to hear your opinion on.
1) SWIR dropped AH on Thursday. It was not down today at all. It was up more than 5%premarket after an awful AH session yesterday, opened at .02 above the low, dropped those .02 and was was up 11% from that point on occasionally making moves up to 13.00 a share (13%). Investor sentiment is very high... read the yahoo message board and you will see. Most stocks that have crap earnings or negative performance will see a dramatic shift in investor sentiment. SWIR did not at all. In fact more people bought this morning and said they were considering buying more than I have seen in a long time.
2) I don't see where you are getting the bottom bold, blue trend line... but that is just me. I am not familiar with many patterns... I can recognize some flags, pennants, and triangles but that is about it so you probably have me there :D. Could you please explain some of the patterns you use :)
3) I have been long on SWIR for around 16 months now. Throughout those 16 months, SWIR followed short term technical trends and indicators a handful of times. More often than not SWIR reacts to "long term" support and resistance levels.
4) You seem to be all about trend lines but you are missing one very key one in this case. If you look on the 1 year chart, you can connect the bottoms and form an ascending trendline. This trendline runs right under the low for today. SWIR hit this 11.40-11.45 mark and shot upwards today and never looked back. I will attempt to post the chart as soon as I can.
These are more supposed to be questions than statements. I can definitely see where the short opportunity comes into play here. Any shorting must be done short term and will not amount to more than 15-18%. I do not think that SWIR will drop below 10.60 and there is absolutely no way it will fall below 10.00.
Can you please explain your strategy for shorting SWIR? I am mainly interested in the length of time you expect this drop to occur. If you plan to short for more than a week, I think there could be some trouble. If you plan to short for only a day (Monday or Tuesday) I think you could make a bit of money. I think that SWIR will go up to 14.00 on Monday but close around 13.50. This will show that the resistance is too strong, people will sell for their 20% profit, and people who are short will make a few hundred dollars as it falls back to the high 11s to mid 12s.
And a few long term weekly charts...
Shorting SWIR the two days prior to earnings in the low 17s or high 16s at the DOUBLE failure at the neckline and at the down trendline would have been sweet.
Shorting here is "shorting into the hole," meaning that too much of the gain on the short side has been missed, and that there's a lot of risk now on the upside, on a re-test of broken support:
1. 13.88 - the June 13 gap-filling low
2. 15.10 - the secondary low of the Symmetrical Triangle (blue #3)
3. 15.38 - the bottom of the broken Symmetrical Triangle
Re-tests of broken support after a stock tanks this badly are not uncommon. Examples:
1. The rally from the June 13 low of 13.88, back above the neckline, and just below the Right Shouder, to 18.25 (31.48% rally)
2. The rally off the July 24 low (blue #3) back to DOUBLE resistance (14.17% rally...not huge, but still a nice gain)
From the DOUBLE failure at 17.24, SWIR already is down 27.18% at Friday's 12.70 close.
From the gap below the Symmetrical Triangle, SWIR is down 17.10% at Friday's close.
If SWIR should rally to the broken support at the bottom of the broken Symmetrical Triangle, which is not inconceivable, that's a risk of 20% on a short here.
When shorting, I'd suggest trying to enter at a break of support (that wasn't possible on Friday's gap down), or at a re-test of broken support or at resistance, like near the DOUBLE failure above $17 on Wednesday or Thursday.
Just a suggestion.
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 29, 2006, 07:25:55 AM
Shorting SWIR the two days prior to earnings in the low 17s or high 16s at the DOUBLE failure at the neckline and at the down trendline would have been sweet.
Shorting here is "shorting into the hole," meaning that too much of the gain on the short side has been missed, and that there's a lot of risk now on the upside, on a re-test of broken support:
1. 13.88 - the June 13 gap-filling low
2. 15.10 - the secondary low of the Symmetrical Triangle (blue #3)
3. 15.38 - the bottom of the broken Symmetrical Triangle
Re-tests of broken support after a stock tanks this badly are not uncommon. Examples:
1. The rally from the June 13 low of 13.88, back above the neckline, and just below the Right Shouder, to 18.25 (31.48% rally)
2. The rally off the July 24 low (blue #3) back to DOUBLE resistance (14.17% rally...not huge, but still a nice gain)
From the DOUBLE failure at 17.24, SWIR already is down 27.18% at Friday's 12.70 close.
From the gap below the Symmetrical Triangle, SWIR is down 17.10% at Friday's close.
If SWIR should rally to the broken support at the bottom of the broken Symmetrical Triangle, which is not inconceivable, that's a risk of 20% on a short here.
When shorting, I'd suggest trying to enter at a break of support (that wasn't possible on Friday's gap down), or at a re-test of broken support or at resistance, like near the DOUBLE failure above $17 on Wednesday or Thursday.
Just a suggestion.
Great analysis as always, Melf! Applause! One question on the head and shoulders pattern. You have "no left shoulder" on your chart but couldn't you consider using that group to the right of your comment as the left shoulder? If not, what specifications would prevent it from being used as a shoulder? Thanks! I never stop learning from you, Melf!
Quote from: basonista on July 29, 2006, 08:34:19 AM
One question on the head and shoulders pattern. You have "no left shoulder" on your chart but couldn't you consider using that group to the right of your comment as the left shoulder? If not, what specifications would prevent it from being used as a shoulder? Thanks! I never stop learning from you, Melf!
basonista,
No, the candles to the right, after the neckline begins at the April 21 gap up, are the lead-in to the Head of the pattern. There should be a shoulder to the left, but there isn't one because of the gap higher.
It's a very unorthodox H&S Top, to say the least, and we don't know if it's valid until later on. There were 3 things that validated the pattern:
1. The rally off the June 13 low of 13.88 went back above the neckline, which made the validity of the pattern suspect, but that rally ended at 18.25, below the high (18.45) pf tje Right Shoulder, indicating that the pattern was being respected (the high of the Right Shoulder shouldn't have been taken out, and it wasn't).
The pattern still was suspect, though. It would have been better validation if the rally had ended at the neckline.
2. The rally off the July 21 low (blue #3) got slightly above the blue down trendline, but it penetrated that down trendline only to end smack on the neckline, on July 27.
Very nice validation, that the neckline now was, indeed, resistance.
3. July 28, SWIR gapped down to 11.45 at the open, and the H&S Top target of 11.85 was MADE.
Back-to-back validations on July 27 and July 28, confirming the vaildity of the unorthodox H&S Top.
SWIR seems to like unorthodox/usual H&S Top patterns. I'll show you another one next post.
basonista,
From November, 2005 - March, 2006, SWIR formed a H&S Top (red circles). Within that pattern was nested another H&S Top (blue circles), although that one was very unorthodox. The high of the Left Shoulder was 14.00. The high of the Head was only 13.99. The high of the Head, as you know, should be the highest point of the pattern. It wasn't.
Otherwise, it sure looked like a nested H&S Top. "If it walks like a duck...quacks like a duck..."
;D >:D
Like NTRI, ESLR and GIGM (mentioned in those folders), when the high of a Right Shoulder is taken out to the upside, you want to be very careful. It could be a Bull Trap (it was in ESLR), but it also could be very explosive rally to the upside, like it was in GIGM, NTRI and SWIR.
The 12.12 high of the Right Shouder (the red one) was taken out to the upside on April 6.
Shorts Beware. >:D
The 12.78 high of the Right Shoulder (the blue one) ALSO was taken out on April 6.
Shorts BEWARE. >:D >:D
The 14.00 high of the entire pattern was taken out on April 20. Uh-oh-h...
SHORTS BEWARE. >:D >:D >:D
The next day, April 21...
BANG TO THE UPSIDE. ::) ::) ::)
The 17.31 target MADE that day (the high was 18.22), no doubt fueled by some panicked short-covering by those who still were playing it for a Bearish H&S Top.
SWIR went on to the high of 21.36.
To derive the target, by the way, subtract the 14.00 high from where the neckline was when the high was put it (it was at 11.69), and ADD that difference to the 14.00 high, rather than subtracting that amount if the H&S pattern had broken to the downside.
Math:
14.00 - 10.69 = 3.31 points added to 14.00 = Target: 17.31 IN PLAY
No, no, no...I won't pick it up SWIR on monday ;)
You see, the high of the last candle (weekly chart) is @ $17.24 low is $11.45 if this thing goes up @ 13.90 to 14.20 I will short it between that level..
Breaking the 50sma, 200sma, & 200ema on the weekly chart is a BAD indication, SWIR will come down further I believe ;)
SWIR ;)
Yes... I think we agree now ;D I don't have a margin account so I can't short but I will be watching like a hawk on Monday and Tuesday. If SWIR pushes towards 14.00, I will tighten my stop a lot and after it bounces off 14.00 I will sell my shares. I will then buy back as much as I can between 10.60 and 11.40 because this thing is a great long term buy and in the mean time will be tradeable in the 10.60-14.00 range for about 6 weeks I would guess.
I'm still waiting for my entry but SWIR keeps sliding slowly :(
update;
Sierra Wireless upgraded to "buy"
Thursday, October 19, 2006 11:19:27 AM ET
Research Capital
NEW YORK, October 19 (newratings.com) - Analyst Nick Agostino of Research Capital upgrades Sierra Wireless Inc (SWIR.NAS) from "hold" to "buy." The target price has been raised from C$15.75 to C$20.50.
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company is expected to post its 3Q revenues, scheduled to be reported on October 26, in-line with the consensus and the guidance. The analyst expects Sierra Wireless to issue robust revenue guidance for 4Q, ahead of the current estimate. The upgrade in rating reflects the dissipation of the technology transition risk that the company faced in 3Q, Research Capital adds. The target price has been raised to reflect a shift in the base year, the analyst says.
Gap to be filled up to 15$ + ?
cheers
Oliver
Oliver,
SWIR sure seems to have a predilection for H&S patterns. It's broken out of one for the THIRD time in six months.
If you scroll up and look at my first chart posted on July 29,
10.95 was IN PLAY. That target MADE, and interestingly, both the Right and Left Shoulders of this current pattern are
10.97, right near that target number.
Quote from: la-onda on October 22, 2006, 01:34:52 PM
Gap to be filled up to 15$ + ?
The current Bullish Inverse H&S pattern measures to
14.98 (Math is on the chart). The secondary low of the Symmetrical Triangle (Blue #3), prior to the gap down, was
15.10, so that looks doable.
This pattern broke out on October 12, crossing 12.73. The close was 12.74. SWIR also broke above the down trendline off the 21.367 high. I don't make much of those "breakouts" when the descent is so sharp, but it seems to help if there also is a pattern, like this one.
Notice that SWIR pulled back toward the neckline and that blue down trendline. It closed slightly below the neckline on October 18, putting the upside target ON HOLD, but it rallied again, so
14.98 is back IN PLAY.
I'll show you a close-up of this pattern next post.
Oliver,
SWIR now could go into a Bull Flag, or a Bullish Falling Wedge (black lines) and re-test that blue down trendline off the high. It also could test its 50DMA (dotted green line), but I wouldn't like that since it would put the stock back below the breakout and back below the blue down trendline.
As long as SWIR remains above the neckline, though, 14.98 is IN PLAY.
Good luck if you have it!
SWIR is back. Just busted through the 200dma after a few days of consolidation after a 10% jump through the 50dma on good news of a huge deal with Verizon that will help revenue greatly increase. At 13.95 as I type and up on a bad day for the market (200dma @ 13.89).
UPDATE: Bounced off of the 14.00 level back to just below the 200dma. Fluctuating around that level.
If it can close above the 200dma, SWIR has a chance to run back to 16.50 very quickly. Huge gap between 13.80 and 16.50
"SWIR" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;D
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock. :(
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$ ;)
Today's closing chart.......