3SOF

The market seems to be evolving in lower lows and possibly lower highs. For tomorrow the upper limit for the channel is 1202 points.

... the VXN hit Thurday it's all time low:

... at the 4490 zone tomorrow.

Quote from: David Randolph on May 30, 2005, 05:50:22 PM
The market seems to be evolving in lower lows and possibly lower highs. For tomorrow the upper limit for the channel is 1202 points.

I'm sorry if my question isn't suitable for this short-term trading board. Unfortunately, I'm "small investor" and newbie in technical analysis and also in the speculative trading, so I was really surprised when I found this excellent site. A lot of thanks to David, to Frederick and to all site's community. During last month I've learnt a lot....
To increase diversification, first of all, I have to expand my portfolio, so I decided to sell in the nearest future equities of S&P500 mutual fund. I bought them before Enron crash and saw a huge minus, but now I have a good profit and a hard question: "is it a good exit point now?"  ???
I'm afraid that S&P500 at the beginning of new strong decline.

Any suggestions and opinions will be appreciated  :)

PS: Sorry for my terrible English, as you see its not my native language...

The S&P found support at lower TL (1205) and has made a pretty nice 20 dollar move and stopped today right on the down TL. It will be interesting too see if the move up can continue ??

The SPX is at, or near, trendline support. Looking back at past indicator performance says that we could be nearing a ST bounce, maybe as soon as today??

The S&P found support Thur. @ lows at or near the 61% retrace and closed nicely for the day. Friday's bad data didn't make much difference with a really nice rebound. Not sure just how far the rebound may take us at this point. We have broken below the 2003 Bull Market trendline, below the lower support trendline, and have created a nice down channell that could take us lower. The lower parrell white channell lines say we could go too around 1150/1160 "if" the move up form here does not continue... I guess time will tell...... Good trading too all........

Anyone think this is not going through the 200 sma, uh fairly soon?

(http://mdteague.com/SP500May18.png)

Yeah I think it will happen fairly soon, but I also believe it's insignificant. The 200 has been breached 4 times in the last two years of the bull. The channel, as displayed in this chart, I consider more relevant: http://tinyurl.com/gw4uk ... but even then there can be fakeouts. 

I only hope the significance will be a few good months of shorting.  Would certainly like to see a turnaround by for new highs by November.  Looks like we have to go down further this summer.

Unlike the other benchmarks, the S&P 500 had edged below its 50-day moving average, closing under that level for five straight sessions,June 25th-29th.
Yet despite its relative weakness, the S&P remains rangebound like the other benchmarks but went back above the 50-day MA on Monday and Tuesday 2nd and 3rd July.
The index has struggled with resistance at 1,540, while important support holds at the 1,487 June low.

The bigger picture

With recent losses, each major U.S. benchmark has been challenging its 50-day moving average.
Specifically:
The Dow industrials closed Monday June 25 at 13,352, or 29 points above its 50-day.
The Nasdaq closed Monday June 25 at 2,577, or 11 points above its 50-day.
The S&P closed Monday June 25 at 1,497, or nine points under its 50-day.
This is notable because the 50-day moving average is generally considered an intermediate-term trending indicator. A posture above the 50-day signals an uptrend, and a stance below it, a downtrend.
That means if each U.S. benchmark would break decisively under its 50-day, the U.S. markets' intermediate-term outlook would turn lower.
Yet even setting aside moving averages, there's a more important technical issue taking shape -- namely, the prospect of a bearish double-top formation.
The pattern has taken shape with two failed tests of the June highs:
The Dow industrials topped June 1 at 13,692 and June 15 at 13,688 -- four points apart.
The Nasdaq topped June 1 at 2,626 and June 20 at 2,634 -- eight points apart.
The S&P 500 topped June 1 at 1,540 and June 15 at 1,538 -- two points apart.
In each case above, the two peaks have come in the same general area, defining the pattern.
Still, the double-top formation won't be resolved until the major benchmarks violate the June low. Specifically:
The Dow's June low holds at 13,251, or 326 points under yesterday's close.
The Nasdaq's June low holds at 2,534, or 101 points under yesterday's close.
The S&P's June low holds at 1,487, or 37 points under yesterday's close.
So the support points above.....the June lows.....have taken on increased significance for the near-to-intermediate term.
But again, while a potential double-top formation has hit the radar screen, a true double-top won't take hold until the June lows are violated.
Setting aside the near-to-intermediate outlook, the primary uptrend's firmly intact.
That's partly because over the past two months, each major U.S. benchmark has broken decisively to new highs, concluding an extended seven-year consolidation phase.
And while interest rates have admittedly taken a disturbing turn for the worse, the steep move higher in yields is likely unsustainable for the near-to-intermediate term. That means while a longer, and somewhat deeper, consolidation phase may be in order after last week's pullback, the longer-term path of least resistance remains higher.


Below are the 6 month, 1 year, 2 year and 3 year charts.......

Reuters
S&P 500 hits lifetime record, surpasses Year 2000 high
Friday July 13, 2:50 pm ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 index, a measure of the largest U.S. stocks, rose to a lifetime high on Friday on optimism about economic growth, corporate takeovers and profits.
The previous record of 1,553.11 was set on March 24, 2000.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) was up 5.99 points, or 0.39 percent, at 1,553.69.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) was up 49.99 points, or 0.36 percent, at 13,911.72. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) was up 1.37 points, or 0.05
percent, at 2,703.10.


The S&P wanted that closing high today, and will add 10 points to that(with more short covering)...next week.  ;D
Nice close yesterday (extra spike up on CCI) and the open today had a nice reversal 1545 level...CCI daily almost to the distribution side of the overbought level.

Technicals
Record Price High

Last Price Quote is:
1.71%above 13-day MA
2.83%above 50-day MA

Good Evening!

The market has been pretty violent during the last few weeks, volatility has been extreme, and every recent movement tends to look fast and erratic. I was Bullish a few weeks ago, I was Neutral last week, and now I’m not quite sure yet… so I’m taking the SPX for an overview, and will try to elaborate a classic technical analysis on the index to see if I can get some bearing out from this point ;)

Let’s begin with the main chart of the SPX’s Bull Market since 2003:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39730;image)

Looking to this chart, and even after the recent massacre, the Bull Market pattern is still intact, major highs and lows had been consecutively higher and even today’s low was still above the last relative low from March 2007. Also in this chart we can see that during today’s session the Long Term Support level has been tested, creating a powerful positive reaction right after that during the intraday.
Taking out a few exceptions, the time from a relative high and a relative low is always shorter than the time from a low to high, that means the sell-offs and corrections tend to be quicker than the rallies… being that quick, also means lot of fear every time it happens.

Looking to the short term chart:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39732;image)

After breaking its upper trading range to the upside and setting an all time historical High (above year 2000’s highs), the Index started a big sell-off, breaking down the bottom side of that trading range and moving right down to the Mid Term ascending support. Volatility then started to explode, with quick reactions to the upside several attempts to break the support level, two sessions ago the support was finally broken and the SPX started another free fall… until today’s mid session.

The 1370 price zone is an important technical reference, being a few ticks above the last relative low it’s also the current location of the Long Term Ascending Support (using a regular scale). So this powerful reaction to 1370 level is a good sign, especially with a candlestick like this one and with record volume recorded on the SPY ETF… in the other hand, using a semi-log scale we could point a lower support area 40 points below (1330).

Volatility is very high and its difficult to predict the next move, I would point the 1460 zone as a possible short term resistance, but once again, volatility tend to blur these technical levels sometimes.

One last chart, this one since 1988:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39731;image)

This chart has nothing special: the biggest Bull Market of all times, since 1982 to 2000, then the Bear Market of 2000-2003, then the current Bull Market and now what? a Double Top formation ? nha… I don’t believe in this type of pattern on a Long Term Chart like this one… I believe we are facing a big correction, probably bigger than others, but I think that if we haven’t found the bottom yet, that we have already done the hardest part and there’s not much downside potential from here.

Summary:
- The Bull Market pattern is still intact.
- Long Term Support tested today with strong volume and bullish candle.
- Not much downside potential.
- The highs of the year, not likely to be the highs of the current Bull Market.

My best regards to you all !

Good to hear from you, Rams ! 8)
Great work !! It  = Applaud, yet it doesn't say how much (value) it truly is to read a post from the "Rams"!!!!!!!
A pleasure to always read your post.... ;)

Great post, applaud.
Wish you would stick around more often.
Your food for thought is just what we need particularly when most of us are
not feeling happy about the market.
I'm only holding minimum positions, but agree with other guys that tomorrow
or monday may be a nice opportunity to get in again.

Best luck to all

Ramsburg, what a top-notch analysis, applaud. Keep that up and I'll be a faithful subscriber to 3SOF for a long time to come. Thanks. Would love to see you post a little more often though if possible.

Excellent analysis Ramsburg. I agree completely. We may not be at the very bottom but we are far from the top. Time to start buying and get ready for the next run higher!

The increased value of the Yen today has a major effect on the Yen carry trade...Another nail in the coffin for hedge funds...I predict another down day tomorrow...I know I'm in the minority....We are closer but not close to support... >:D

Thanks guys ;)

This was more like a brain storming rather than a technical analysis...

I'll try to post more often, being around a lot of coding stuff since I'm also the technical department of the website ;)

The SPX is up about 50 points since I published this Analysis last week, so it's time for a little update ;)

Update:
The contact with the long term support has generated a very nice reaction, in just 5 sessions, the SPX crossed above the ema-200 again, and reached its short term resistance: 1460
I'm not considering an effective breakout of this resistance just yet, because with present volatility we can still witness a negative reaction at these price levels.
The Index is testing the resistance level and trying to break it, but it would be normal a 20 or 30 points drop at this point and before an effective breakout, since a lot of traders know this price mark and there is some selling pressure here (coming from short term traders who got in near the lows and are trading key technical prices) .

Anyway, if the breakout happens soon, there are 2 other barriers worth mentioning:
1480 - Where the ema-50 stands now
1490 - The base of the upper trading range where the SPX was trading a while back

This means, that in case we watch a breakout, we should also watch a throwback soon after it happens, and in that case, we should use the 1460 as the support level and a good entry point for those missing the initial breakout.... But we haven't an effective breakout yet... so let's just wait ;)

For the Long term, and as I stated before, I believe we are still in Bullmarket, and this big dump was just a normal correction.

Best regards !

"This big dump was just a normal correction."    ??? ??? ???

I expect big dumps may become normal in the next 6 months... ;)

The markets are breaking the downtrend.

Quote from: stout7735 on August 24, 2007, 03:22:20 AM
"This big dump was just a normal correction."    ??? ??? ???

I expect big dumps may become normal in the next 6 months... ;)

Can you say why ?

regards,

Just a quick update:
The breakout happened sooner than I expected... The SPX is now trading above its previous ascending support, and closed Friday's session just near the ema-50 level, more than 50% of the sell off from the highs was recovered during this pullback.
The next resistance level is located @ 1490 as stated on the previous update, followed by 1503 (the previous relative high from this swing), we should look to 1460 now as the current short term support.

Best regards,

Quote from: Ramsburg on August 27, 2007, 03:34:26 AM

Quote from: stout7735 on August 24, 2007, 03:22:20 AM
"This big dump was just a normal correction."    ??? ??? ???

I expect big dumps may become normal in the next 6 months... ;)

Can you say why ?

regards,

Stock market corrections are normal, but they do not result in unprecedented worldwide central banks immediately  pumping hundreds of billions for "liquidity" ,nor are they usually set off by undetermined bad debts...It will take months to unravel the extent of these problem loans and who is left holding the bag...While most corrections recover in a few months, this may worsen for a few months... :)

Just a quick update:

Today’s session was ugly and not nice to watch, but given the recent big pullback and taking in consideration the current volatility in play, this wasn’t completely out of context. Apparently the motivation for today’s sell-off was the Fed Minutes, which didn’t brought anything new, just the same fears that pushed the markets down some weeks ago.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout was washed away from the charts and the SPX is once again trading below the 1460 reference level and the ema-200. I guess climbing 110 points in 7 sessions without breathing was not sustainable… I was expecting a little sell-off before watching the breakout of 1460 last week, instead we have now this bigger sell-off :-(
The current layout is still compatible with an inverted H&S pattern (assuming a second shoulder is done during the next 20 points down from this spot). It’s difficult to draw short term supports with this volatility, but despite the short term, the «big picture» is still intact at this point.

Regards,

Quick Chart Update:
Yesterday's candle was an indication of strength; the SPX has quickly recovered all of Tuesday's losses (actually, the SPY closed above the body of Tuesday's candle).
The index closed above 1460, but this isn't a reference anymore, the resistance stands now at 1479 points and we can introduce a new short term support at 1432.

Regards,

Quick Update:
Yesterday session didn't have much action compared to the regular volatility we've been watching lately.  During the session there was a lot of small ups and downs, showing indecision, probably because Bernanke's speech today.

Technically speaking, I'm still looking to the 1479 level as the main upside barrier for short term quickly followed by 1490. If we watch a close above these levels, the overall technical layout will be much better, taking in consideration that the down swing would be broken to the upside and also because there is a sort of Inverted H&S pattern in play. For the downside, 1432 remains as the nearest support level, but anything its possible today, especially with a lot of ears on Bernanke's words (personally I don't think he's going to give many clues at this point), the SPX futures are up 15 points, but that means absolutely nothing ;)

Update:

Not many developments since my last update, the SPX continues to trade inside the same range and not completing a valid signal yet, while volatility continues to be present not on the same scale compared with some weeks ago, but still giving a lot of noise and distortion to the short term view.
I’ve made some minor arrangements to the chart, updating some reference lines one could use for short term purposes. 
Above current prices I would consider the 1490 level as the main short term resistance level, followed by 1503 which is still the short term relative high (that I would consider as a level of confirmation for an upside continuation). For the downside 1440 but especially 1432 should be the main short term support, below this level I would only consider the long term ascending support (1385) and the August lows as support.
EMA-200 and EMA-50 are still working as price barriers, now forming a tighter range, during this period the SPX seems to be attracted to the inside zone between this two moving averages.

We are still half away from the August lows to the July highs, even so the long term chart remains completely intact.

In attach the updated short term chart and the chart since 2003

Best regards ;)

Technical Setups.......

Friday's Market Wrap video from IBD; I hope the link works.

http://www.investors.com/MediaCenter/?MediaID=753&t=V

chart quotation daily and weekly
will the August low tested and holding ????

:o

Here some quick technical notes for the SPX:

- From October to March, a solid bear trend was in place, with several down-swings of bigger intensity and heavy volume for the extended selling zones. The last down-swing, ended in March, creating a false downside breakout.

-  After the false breakout (March), the index is developing a steady up-swing (still in play), that ended the previous pattern with an upside breakout and new relative higher highs. During the process an Inverted H&S was designed and triggered (a pattern that is still in play). This kind of price action (after a false breakout), suggests a big Baskerville signal in place (compatible with the Inverted H&S target near 1500).

- Moving average analysis: the EMA-50 is still below the EMA-200, still marking the presence of the down trend, but the EMA-50 has already a positive leaning while the EMA-200 is flat. These are lagging indicators, but its current layout suggest an upside inversion taking place for the mid-term (not yet confirmed).

-Short term analysis: the index reversed today at 1440, creating a new resistance level for short term. Momentum analysis may suggest a consolidation to take place before a new advance, but the up swing is still intact at this point. On the downside, I would point 1406 (aprox the EMA-200) and 1388 which has been a reaction zone, both values to take in consideration in a probable consolidation scenario.

My overall sentiment for the SPX is bullish right now despite from a possible short term consolidation or selling action.

In attach 2 annotated charts.

Best regards,

S&P below 700 as banks' future still in question
Tuesday March 3, 2009, 4:57 pm EST


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell in volatile trading on Tuesday, with the S&P ending below 700 for the first time since October 1996 as persistent uncertainty about the amount of money needed to shore up the financial system overshadowed a hunt for bargains.

Stocks swung to both sides of the break-even mark throughout the session with the S&P's ultimate break below the key psychological level of 700 adding to the gloom.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke left the door open to whether banks will need more money when he said the size of a $700 billion bank-rescue package would depend on bank "stress tests" being conducted by regulators and the economy's direction.

An S&P index of bank stocks (^GSPF - News) fell 1.6 percent, with Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS - News) off 4.5 percent at $82.37 and PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC - News) down 5 percent at $24.82.

"His comments were a reality check for the market that nothing changed between yesterday and today," said Jim Awad, managing director at Zephyr Management in New York.

"It renewed fears that there is no bottom in terms of toxic assets and no bottom in terms of need for capital."

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) fell 37.27 points, or 0.55 percent, to 6,726.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) lost 4.49 points, or 0.64 percent, to 696.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) shed 1.84 points, or 0.14 percent, to 1,321.01.

The S&P is down nearly 23 percent for the year so far and has given up more than 55 percent since the high hit in October 2007.

"700 is an amazing number when you think 16 months ago, we were at the high," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for Standard & Poor's.

"It's psychological and obviously, it reinforces the negative situation, especially where there's not a lot of credibility out there."

OIL SECTOR, AMERICAN EXPRESS GAIN

On the upside, energy shares got a boost from oil's gain of $1.50 to settle at $41.65 a barrel on expectations that OPEC will cut production output again. Chevron (NYSE:CVX - News) cut earlier gains to end up just 0.2 percent at $57.73.

American Express (NYSE:AXP - News) shares rose 6.9 percent to $11.82 after the U.S. government unveiled details of a program to stabilize the financial system that could ease the credit card company's financial expenses.

In its latest efforts to bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury launched a new securities loan program and said a future expansion may include some of the riskier mortgage and debt securities hampering banks.

The $200 billion Term Asset-backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, is designed to give frozen securitization markets a jolt by offering financing for investors to encourage them to buy "AAA"-rated asset-backed securities.

In testimony before a congressional committee, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the Obama administration will work with Congress to determine the size and shape of future efforts to shore up banks and acknowledged the cost of the financial bailout may rise.

General Electric Co (NYSE:GE - News), down 7.8 percent at $7.01, also weighed down the market as investors fretted about the conglomerate's future. Last week, GE announced a deep cut in its dividend.

Trading was active on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.90 billion shares changing hands, above last year's estimated daily average of 1.49 billion, while on Nasdaq, about 2.44 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a ration of about 2 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, about nine stocks fell for every five that rose.

The S&P 500 broke above its highs from last week today, which confirms a continuation of the uptrend that started back on March 9th. Since then, the S&P 500 is up 25.5%. Five sectors have outperformed the overall market since March 9th, while five have underperformed. Financials are up the most at 60.3%, followed by Consumer Discretionary (36.3%), Industrials (34.4%), Materials (32.1%), and Technology (29.8%). All of the outperforming sectors are cyclical in nature. Health Care has rallied the least at just 11.9%. Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities, and Telecom are the other four sectors that have underperformed the S&P 500 during the rally.

S&P 500...

The S&P 500 consolidates (short term) between 830 and 875. Upward breakout would test 940, while downward breakout would test 700. In the long term, the primary trend is down. Twiggs Money Flow (13-Week) bullish divergence shows a weak reversal signal and breakout above 940 would offer confirmation. But it would be prudent to wait for the next correction to complete a higher trough, followed by a new high.

The charts of interest this week are of the Dow and S&P500 because they are quickly approaching the 200-day moving average. Many active traders will be keeping a close eye on these levels because they have historically been used to determine the direction of the market. A break above the 200-day moving average could trigger a long-term shift in sentiment.

REVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS FORMING ?.......

The ascending wedge pattern has broken down as we expected. Considering that the market has rallied nearly 40%, I think it is reasonable to expect more corrective action.

The next development to watch is the possible formation of a reverse head and shoulders. We currently have the left shoulder, head, and neckline. The correction that has started could result in a right shoulder, if the correction does not turn into the next leg of the bear market. The ideal resolution (if you are a bull) would be for the correction to end in the area of 750-800, then for a rally to blast up through the neckline. If that were to happen, the minimum upside target would be equal to the distance between the top of the head and the neckline... about 1200. Interesting to contemplate, but, hey, we are way ahead of ourselves at this point.

Intermediate-term indicators are still very overbought. This evidence supports the idea that the correction is not over yet.

Bottom Line: The short-term indicators, although oversold, have shifted from a persistently positive range to a more normal range. I interpret this to mean that the invincible nature of the rising trend has come to an end. Coupled with the fact that medium-term indicators are still quite overbought, my conclusion is that there are probably a few more weeks of correction ahead of us. The appearance of some elements of a reverse head and shoulders offer some hope that a major bottom could be forming, but it is too early to turn up the optimism in that regard.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 retreated from strong resistance at 940 and is similarly consolidating in a narrow range on low volume. Reversal above 900 would signal another test of 940, while breakout below 880 would test 830. In the longer term, the bear rally is expected to fail. Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) reversal below zero would warn of a correction to test primary support at 675. Penetration of resistance at 940, however, would give a weak (primary) up-trend signal. But readers should beware of a bull trap.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=48301)

S&P 500
The S&P 500 bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) would be strengthened if the indicator retreats to zero. Breakout above 950 is unlikely, while reversal below 900 would test primary support at 670.

S&P 500
The S&P 500 is similarly headed for a test of support at 880. Breakout would test primary support at 670. Reversal above 950 is now unlikely, but would signal a primary up-trend with a target of 1100. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) warns of selling pressure, but the longer-term (13-Week) indicator is more evenly balanced: a fall below 0.1 would confirm the down-swing, while a rise above 0.3 would indicate a primary advance.

S&P 500...
S&P 500 breakout below support at 880 would confirm the Dow signal — and warn of a test of primary support at 670.

The breakout is expected to have a bearish influence on most major stockmarkets.

S&P 500
S&P 500 breakout above 950 would confirm a Dow primary advance, while a fall below 870 would signal the opposite. The strong rise on Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) indicates that upward breakout is more likely. In the long term, breakout above 950 would signal a primary up-trend with a target of 1100, while reversal below 870 would target primary support at 670.

The FTSE 100 and DAX normally move in sync with the S&P 500 — so their absence of buying pressure has a bearish, albeit secondary, influence on US markets.

S&P 500
The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 950 to signal a primary advance. Penetration of 1000 would offer a target of 1300*.

* Target calculation: 1000 + ( 1000 - 700 ) = 1300

Hi traders,
My last analysis about spx 500 weekly.
Enjoy big trader.  ;)

S&P 500...
The S&P 500 is also testing its former primary support level at 1050. Failure would confirm the primary downtrend. 63-day Twiggs Momentum Oscillator holding below zero suggests a downtrend.
Target calculation: 1050 - ( 1200 - 1050 ) = 900

Overnight U.S. Stock News.......

•   Sep S&Ps this morning are up +12.10 points. The stock market yesterday traded on either side of unchanged throughout the day and settled mixed (Dow +0.05%, S&P 500 +0.04%, Nasdaq Composite -0.28%). Bullish factors included (1) carry-over strength from a rally in European stocks after Standard & Poor's said the risk of a renewed recession in Europe is "remote," (2) gains in homebuilders after the larger-than-expected increase in the Jun S&P Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index (+0.3% m/m and +4.2% y/y versus expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.6% y/y), (3) strength in consumer stocks after the larger-than-expected increase in Aug US consumer confidence (+2.5 to 53.5 versus expectations of +0.3 to 50.7), (4) a rally in bank stocks after the FDIC said US banks posted $21.6 billion in profit in Q2, up +17% q/q and their biggest quarterly profit in nearly 3 years, and (5) the prediction from Cabot Money Management that individual investors a re the least bullish on US stocks since March 2009, a contrarian signal that stocks prices may rally.

•   Bearish factors included (1) concern that the US economy is slowing after the larger-than-expected decline in the Aug Chicago purchasing managers index which fell to a 9-month low (-5.6 to 56.7 versus expectations of -5.3 to 57.0), (2) the FDIC report that said US "problem" banks rose to 829 at the end of Q2, up +7% from 775 at the end of Q1, (3) weakness in semiconductor stocks after Goldman Sachs said that Intel's agreement to purchase Infineon Technologies AG's wireless business could give Intel a cost advantage over other semiconductor makers, and (4) the Aug 10 FOMC meeting minutes in which policy makers signaled no plans to resume large-scale asset purchases to bolster the economy.
•   Alcoa (AA) jumped 2.2% in pre-market trading as metals prices climbed after China reported stronger-than-expected manufacturing activity in Aug.

•   Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) rallied 1.2% in pre-market trading after copper prices surged to a 4-month high and gold climbed to a 2-month high.

S&P 500...

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of 1130; breakout would indicate a primary advance to 1210*. Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) recovery above zero strengthens the signal. Reversal below 1030 is unlikely, but would confirm the primary down-trend.

Target calculation: 1130 + ( 1130 - 1050 ) = 1210

S&P 500...

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of 1130; breakout would indicate a primary advance to 1220. Twiggs Momentum (63-day) recovery above zero would suggest an up-trend. Reversal below 1030 is unlikely at present, but would confirm the primary down-trend.

Target calculation: 1130 + ( 1130 - 1050 ) = 1210

S&P 500...

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 1130; breakout would indicate a primary advance to 1220. Twiggs Money Flow holding above the zero line indicates buying pressure. Again, it would be prudent to wait until mid-October to check if support continues after the quarter-end. Reversal below 1030 is unlikely at present, but would confirm the primary down-trend.

Target calculation: 1130 + ( 1130 - 1050 ) = 1210

S&P 500...
The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1130, indicating a primary advance to 1220*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests an up-trend. Expect a mid-October retracement to test the new support level at 1130.

Target calculation: 1130 + ( 1130 - 1050 ) = 1210

S&P 500...

The S&P 500 respected short-term support at 1170, confirming the advance to the April high of 1220. A strong rise on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) signals buying pressure. Breakout above 1220 would offer a long-term target of 1420*.

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1020 ) = 1420

S&P 500...
The S&P 500 rose above April high of 1220 to confirm the Dow breakout. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) rising high above its trendline indicates a strong up-trend. Long-term target for the breakout is 1420*.

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1020 ) = 1420

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500...
The S&P 500 is likewise in a strong advance, with a target of 1420*. Reversal below 1180 is most unlikely, but would warn of a reversal. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) breakout above 30 percent signals further buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1020 ) = 1420

S&P 500 Index...

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1300, reinforcing the Dow signal. Rising money flow again signals buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1020 ) = 1420

S&P 500 Index...

The S&P 500 reinforces the Dow signal. Twiggs Momentum holding above zero confirms the strong up-trend.

Every morning, about an hour or 2 after the open, you see a red candle,
oh selloff...nope...just sweeping stops and then off again.
So buy the long red candle every day and Ben will take care of the rest... :D

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1020 ) = 1420

S&P 500 Index...
The broader S&P 500 reflects even stronger buying pressure on Twiggs Money Flow than the Dow. The advance offers a target of 1420*.

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1020 ) = 1420

S&P 500 Index...
What is the S&P 500 Indicator?
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. It is a market-value weighted index (stock price times number of shares outstanding), with each stock's weight in the Index proportionate to its market value. The "500" is one of the most widely used benchmarks of U.S. equity performance. We add the volume of the S&P 500 Index components together on a minute-by-minute basis which now becomes the S&P 500 Indicator, an ideal indicator for predicting future index trends.

S&P 500, NYSE Composite Break Three-Day Losing Streak
02/25/2011 04:25 PM ET

Stocks pushed higher Friday as economic data and assurances on oil supply from Saudi Arabia swayed some to pick up bargains.

The Nasdaq rose 1.6%, the NYSE composite 1.2% and the S&P 500 1.1%. The NYSE and S&P 500 broke a three-day losing streak, and the Nasdaq stanched a two-day slide.

Winners beat losers by about 4-to-1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. But volume slid 26% on the NYSE and 13% on the Nasdaq, according to preliminary data.

The Medical-Long-Term Care group scored the day's best gains, thanks mostly to high-volume advances by two low-rated issues, Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ) (up 13%) and Capital Senior Living (CSU) (up 9%). But Ensign Group (ENSG), a top-rated name in that group, rose 3%, though in weak trade.

Hospitals also made an appearance among the day's winners.

Several oil-and-gas groups made their way to the top as crude prices rose about $1 a barrel. Natural gas prices, which had been slumping, got a big lift.

Some tech groups surged, including chip designers, chip equipment makers and fiber-optics issues.

S&P 500 Index...
The S&P 500 gives a clearer warning of selling pressure, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of support at 1300 would signal a correction.

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1020 ) = 1420

S&P 500 Index...
US Stocks
The S&P 500 index is testing support at 1300; failure would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index...
The S&P 500 continues to test support at 1300, while bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of support (at 1300) would also signal a correction.

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1020 ) = 1420

U.S. Stocks Advance Amid Oracle's Earnings Forecast as Economy Expands
By Rita Nazareth and Lu Wang - Mar 25, 2011 3:55 PM CT

U.S. stocks advanced, giving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index its biggest weekly rally since February, after Oracle Corp. (ORCL)'s profit forecast beat analyst estimates and the rate of economic growth was revised higher.

Oracle, the world's top supplier of database software, climbed 1.6 percent. U.S. shares of Accenture Plc (ACN), the world's second-largest technology-consulting firm, rallied 4.5 percent after its sales forecast beat analyst's projections. Bristol- Myers Squibb Co. advanced 3.3 percent after the pharmaceutical company won U.S. approval a melanoma drug.

The S&P 500 gained 0.3 percent to 1,313.80 at 4 p.m. in New York. The gauge climbed 2.7 percent this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 50.03 points, or 0.4 percent, to 12,220.59 today. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, fell 0.5 percent to 17.91, extending its retreat since March 16 to 39 percent.

"Corporations are making money amid this pace of economic growth," said Kevin Caron, a market strategist in Florham Park, New Jersey, at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which has about $90 billion in client assets. "We saw a solid GDP number. The fact that Oracle reported a decent forecast would be consistent with that trend. As long as the data is supporting the recovery, the S&P 500 can get to $100 a share of earnings over the next year and a half. That means the index rising to 1,500."

Recouping Losses
U.S. stocks rose yesterday, recouping losses that followed Japan's March 11 earthquake, as corporate profits beat estimates and a government report showed a decline in jobless claims. The S&P 500 has advanced 4.5 percent in 2011, extending last year's 13 percent rally, amid government stimulus measures and an eighth straight quarter of higher-than-estimated earnings.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, led by a jump in consumer spending that will be hard to match early in the year as energy prices surge. The revised increase in gross domestic product compares with a 2.8 percent estimate issued last month, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington.

Stocks rose even as the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment decreased to 67.5 from 77.5 in February. The preliminary estimate issued earlier this month was 68.2. The median forecast of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a reading of 68.

Emergency Aid
European Union leaders at a two-day meeting in Brussels agreed to cut the startup capital for the future euro emergency aid mechanism, while Portugal continued to rule out a rescue after the parliament's rejection of budget cuts led Prime Minister Jose Socrates to offer to quit.

A bailout may total as much as 70 billion euros ($99 billion), two European officials with direct knowledge of the matter said, as credit-rating cuts threatened to deepen Portugal's debt woes.

"The market has digested a lot of uncertainties in the past couple of weeks, with the tragedy in Japan and the unrest in Libya," said Charles Stamey, who helps manage $42 billion at Manning & Napier Advisors Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. "I certainly think the market is looking for some good news and this is a bit of it," he said of Oracle's forecast.

Oracle climbed 1.6 percent to $32.64 after the company late yesterday forecast profit excluding acquisition costs and some other expenses of 69 cents to 73 cents this quarter, beating the average analyst estimate of 66 cents. Earnings on that basis were 54 cents a share in the period that ended Feb. 28, also exceeding analysts' projections.

Accenture Rallies
Accenture added 4.5 percent to $54.29. Third-quarter net revenue, or sales before reimbursements, will grow to a range of $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion, the Dublin-based company said. The average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey was $6.08 billion. The company also increased forecasts for full-year net revenue growth to a range of 11 percent to 14 percent, from 8 percent to 11 percent, and for earnings per share to $3.22 to $3.30, from $3.08 to $3.16.

"Very robust results from enterprise bellwethers Oracle and Accenture will reassure people that the enterprise capex cycle remains a powerful tailwind," London-based analysts Jonathan Tseng and Andrew Griffin at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research wrote in a report to clients.

Bristol-Myers Squibb rose 3.3 percent to $27.29. The pharmaceutical company won U.S. approval for ipilimumab, the first drug in a new family of medicines to treat advanced melanoma, the most deadly form of skin cancer.

Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) gained 2 percent to $24.44. The world's biggest pork processor said it sees no "backup" in Japanese orders and that the nation is shifting to fresh pork, according to a Barclays Plc presentation.

Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) slumped 11 percent to $56.89 after the maker of the BlackBerry smartphone forecast first-quarter revenue and profit that trailed estimates. Earnings will be $1.47 to $1.55 a share as the company spends more on research and steps up marketing for its PlayBook tablet and new smartphones, RIM said late yesterday. Analysts had predicted profit of $1.66 on average, excluding some costs.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at [email protected]; Lu Wang in New York at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at [email protected]

S&P 500...
The S&P 500 suggests further consolidation, with divergences on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of both buying and selling pressure.

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1020 ) = 1420

S&P 500, Dow set 2011 highs on earnings, data...
On Tuesday April 26, 2011, 1:17 pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street rallied and the S&P 500 hit its highest level since June 2008 on Tuesday as a flood of positive corporate results added to increasing optimism about the economic growth outlook.

Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F - News), 3M Co (NYSE:MMM - News) and United Parcel Services Inc (NYSE:UPS - News) were among the bellwether names to impress, continuing a string of better-than-expected results. 3M and UPS also raised their full-year profit outlooks, contributing to the bullish sentiment.

Shares of 3M, a Dow component, rose 2.2 percent to $96.22 while UPS was up 1.2 percent at $74.52. Ford advanced 2.5 percent to $15.92.

"The very positive outlooks from today means things look very bright going forward," said Peter Andersen, portfolio manager of the Boston-based Congress Asset Management.

"I was frankly delighted with Ford's results, and the market is taking some of its cue from the strength there," added Andersen, who helps manage $7 billion and owns Ford.

Though 73 percent of New York Stock Exchange issues were in positive territory, there were some disappointments. Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO - News) fell 1.7 percent to $66.61 and was the Dow's biggest loser after its results were hurt by lost Japanese revenue. U.S. Steel Corp (NYSE:X - News) and Netflix Inc (NasdaqGS:NFLX - News) also fell after results.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) was up 108.83 points, or 0.87 percent, at 12,588.71. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) was up 11.55 points, or 0.87 percent, at 1,346/80. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) was up 20.85 points, or 0.74 percent, at 2,846.73.

The three major U.S. stock indexes hit highs for the year, and the Nasdaq was at its highest since late 2007, erasing losses after a drop in February. But some caution remained a day before a press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The conference follows the Fed's last policy statement before it is expected to stop its quantitative easing program at the end of June. Investors have concerns that the end of that program could remove support for buying stocks.

Trading volume was weaker than average, with 3.94 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq as of 1 p.m. EST.

"There's some apprehension about what to expect," Andersen said. "People are anxious to reinvest in equity markets, but they're tentative about the Fed, which is why you've been seeing such low volume lately."

U.S. consumer confidence rose in April as inflation expectations eased somewhat and consumers felt better about the short-term outlook, according to a private-sector report. The data helped ease concerns that the recent rise in oil prices have started to hit shoppers.

NEW YORK—Stocks suffered their biggest declines since the middle of last year, as a slew of downbeat reports prompted fears the economic recovery is running out of steam.
JUNE 1, 2011, 5:39 P.M. ET

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 30.65 points, or 2.3%, to 1314.55, its biggest drop since August 11. The financial, industrial and material sectors each fell more than 3%. Only 10 stocks in the S&P 500 finished in positive territory.

S&P 500 VIOLATED MAJOR UP TRENDLINE...

Thurday's message showed the S&P 500 threatening two important support lines. Unfortunately, both have been broken. Chart 1 shows the SPX closing below its 100-day average (green line) for the first time since last August. The weekly bars in Chart 2 show the SPX ending well below an up trendline drawn under its August/March lows. Those downside violations leave little doubt that the market has entered a downside correction. The most logical downside target at this point is a drop to the March low near 1250 which also happens to coincide with the 200-day (40-week) moving averages which are the red lines in the two charts. There are at least three reasons why the March low is so important. First, it's the next major support level (and represents the bottom of Wave 4 in an Elliott Wave sequence). Second, it coincides with the 200-day moving average which is a major support line. Chart 3 shows another reason. The 1250 level represents a test of a two-year up trendline drawn under the 2009/2010 lows (see arrows). That means that prices need to stay above that level to keep the two-year bull market intact.

Wall Street hits 2-1/2 month low on economic worry...

Monday June 6, 2011, 4:32 pm

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 extended its slide to a fourth day on Monday, hitting its lowest level since March 18, as a spate of recent weak U.S. data lent support to a bearish outlook for the economy.

Sectors most closely associated with economic fortunes took the biggest beating, with shares of Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC - News) off 4 percent to $10.83, the stock's lowest close since May 2009.

As stocks have continued to fall, buying support has dried up, sending the S&P 500 through a series of technical support levels.

"The concern there deals with the weakening job market, capital requirements, quality of assets -- particularly with the double-dip in housing and flattening yield curve. All those things are working against financials and set a weaker tone for the market as a whole," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

Energy shares were also among the hardest-hit sectors, with the PHLX oil service sector index (^OSX - News) off 3.2 percent. Chevron Corp (CVX - News) dropped 1.3 percent to $9.68 as the biggest drag on the Dow.

Oil fell in choppy trading on increased expectations OPEC will boost production targets this week as concerns about high prices curbing oil demand lingered.

"There has been concern that the driving season has peaked already as a result of the slowing economy, and that puts pressure on the refined products and concurrently on the crude products," said Hellwig.

U.S. stocks have been battered over the past five weeks on a number of disappointing reports, culminating in Friday's U.S. employment report, which showed employers added a meager 54,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent.

With the second-quarter earnings season more than a month away, the market focused on the uncertain economic outlook.

The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - News) dropped 61.15 points, or 0.50 percent, to 12,090.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) fell 13.99 points, or 1.08 percent, to 1,286.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC - News) lost 30.22 points, or 1.11 percent, to 2,702.56.

In a sign a slowing economy could hurt earnings, JP Morgan cut its rating on home improvement chain Lowes Cos Inc (NYSE:LOW - News), citing softening home prices and stagnant job growth. The shares fell 2.3 percent to $22.87.

Apple Inc (AAPL - News) dipped 1.6 percent to $338.04 after Chief Executive Steve Jobs appeared at the unveiling of a music-streaming service the company hopes will power its next stage of growth.

An exchange-traded fund that tracks Peruvian stocks tumbled about twice its daily average volume after left-wing former army commander Ollanta Humala won the presidential election.

The iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (Pacific:EPU - News) fell about 13.8 percent to $37.53, while U.S.-traded shares of miner Compania de Minas Buenaventura (Lima:BUEV.LM - News; BVN - News) dropped 15 percent to $35.75.

Volume was light with about 6.8 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, below the daily average of 7.61 billion.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,394 to 618, while on the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers 2,024 to 588.

S&P 500 ...

The S&P 500 is undergoing a similar correction. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of support at 1300 would test the primary level at 1250.

* Target calculation: 1350 + ( 1350 - 1250 ) = 1450

Stocks See Worst Day in 8 Weeks Amid Debt Deal Woes...
Reuters 2:45 pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street suffered its worst day in eight weeks on Wednesday, hit by weak earnings, lackluster economic data and no movement in Washington as the deadline for a default looms.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI) dropped 197.76 points, or 1.58 percent, to 12,303.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX) lost 26.95 points, or 2.02 percent, to 1,304.99. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC) fell 75.17 points, or 2.65 percent, to 2,764.79.

Shares of Moody's, S&P parent tumble
Shares of Moody's, S&P parent tumble amid reports of Justice Dept probe of mortgage ratings

On Thursday August 18, 2011, 4:16 pm
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of the parents of Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's tumbled Thursday. Reports of a Justice Department investigation into whether the big credit rating agencies improperly graded dozens of high-risk mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis spooked investors, along with a broad market sell-off.

The investigation of S&P began before that agency cut the United States' AAA credit rating this month, but that move is likely to add to the political firestorm created by the downgrade, The New York Times said. Separately, Bloomberg News reported that Justice also is investigating Moody's mortgage securities ratings.

Shares of McGraw-Hill Cos., parent of S&P, dropped $2.92, or 7.3 percent, to close at $37.14, while Moody's Corp. plummeted $3.55, or 11.3 percent, to $27.86. The losses were remarkable even in a stock market reeling from a global sell-off stoked by economic worries. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 3.5 percent and the broader S&P 500 index fell an even steeper 4.5 percent.

If the government finds enough evidence to support a case it could undercut the rating agencies' longstanding claim that their analysts act independently from business concerns. New regulatory restraints on the agencies could result.

The agencies scored record profits as they gave their highest ratings to bundles of risky mortgage loans, which made the mortgages appear less troubled and thus more valuable. They failed to anticipate the deterioration that would strike the housing market and devastate the financial system, dragging the country into the worst recession since the 1930s.

S&P 500 Posts Third-Biggest Gain Since 2009

Friday, Sep 16, 2011
U.S. stocks advanced, driving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the third-biggest weekly gain since 2009, as government officials and central bankers took steps to ease the European debt crisis.

Dell Inc. (DELL) climbed 8.8 percent after boosting its share buyback program, helping send technology companies in the S&P 500 to a 7.1 percent increase, the most since July 2009. Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (HIG) rallied 14 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG boosted its rating, and Aetna Inc. (AET) advanced 9.3 percent after saying profit will probably beat its forecast. Goodrich Corp. (GR) surged 10 percent amid speculation United Technologies Corp. may buy the company.

The S&P 500 climbed 5.4 percent to 1,216.01 this week, trimming its 2011 loss to 3.3 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 516.96 points, or 4.7 percent, to 11,509.09, leaving it down 0.6 percent since Dec. 31.

"It looks like the various political leaders and finance leaders are getting together and working in a consorted fashion, which is what's necessary to get through this situation," Peter Jankovskis, who helps manage about $2.6 billion at Oakbrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois, said in a telephone interview. "The equity market is likely to move higher here, and I think we will see a rally by year's end."

The S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since Aug. 31 after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet pressed euro-area governments today to take decisive action to halt the debt crisis. Yesterday, the ECB bought more time by extending an emergency lifeline to banks, driving the week's biggest advance in the stock market. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they are convinced Greece will remain in the euro zone.

Stock Valuations
Stocks have recovered after the S&P 500 sank to 1,119.46 on Aug. 8, down 11 percent for the year. The retreat drove the index to 12.2 times reported earnings, the cheapest valuation since March 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Companies most-tied to the economy rallied this week, with the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index advancing 5.5 percent. Intel Corp. (INTC), Home Depot Inc. (HD) and General Electric Co. (GE) led gains in the Dow, increasing at least 8.2 percent.

"Headlines from Europe are certainly driving the short- term direction of the market," Peter Vanderlee, a money manager at ClearBridge Advisors, a unit of Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc., said in a telephone interview. Legg Mason manages about $640 billion. "We don't have a magic bullet for solving Europe's woes, but against that backdrop, having a portfolio with companies that tend to be more quality-based, have international exposure, it dampens a lot of that volatility."

EBay, Dell
Technology shares rose the most among 10 S&P 500 industries, led by EBay Inc., the world's largest online marketplace. The shares climbed 18 percent to $33.69. Dell, the second-largest personal-computer maker, added 8.8 percent to $15.20. Dell added $5 billion to its stock repurchase program, citing a resurgence in cash flow.

"Valuations in that space are exceedingly attractive," Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Philadelphia-based Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, which manages $54 billion, said during a Sept. 16 Bloomberg Television interview. "And of course we know that business investment and spending on software and hardware has been the one bright spot in terms of economic activity over the last couple of quarters."

Technology companies in the index are trading at 12.3 times estimated 2011 income, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with the average price-earnings ratio using analyst estimates for the current year of 15.4 between March 9, 2009, when the bull market began, and April 29 of this year, when the S&P 500 peaked.

Hartford, Aetna
Hartford was raised by Credit Suisse to "outperform" from "neutral." The shares gained 14 percent, the most among insurers in the S&P 500, to $18.94. Financial companies in the index advanced 6 percent.

Aetna shares climbed 9.3 percent to $41.53 in its biggest weekly rally since February. The third-largest U.S. health insurer said full-year profit will probably beat its forecast as demand for medical care continues to be lower than previous expectations, helping to contain costs.

Goodrich rallied 10 percent to $92.89, the highest price since Aug. 1. After U.S. exchanges closed today, three people with knowledge of the matter said United Technologies is in talks to buy the aerospace equipment maker Goodrich. A deal may be announced as soon as next week, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because the discussions are private. Goodrich is the most likely of the takeover targets United Technologies is studying, one person said.

Rockwell Collins Inc., Textron Inc. (TXT) and Tyco International Ltd. (TYC) gained amid speculation United Technologies is also evaluating them. Rockwell surged a record 17 percent to $56.21. Textron jumped 22 percent, the most since April 2009, to $18.63. Tyco increased 10 percent, the most since February 2009, to $43.70.

Netflix Inc. (NFLX), the mail-order and online film-rental service, fell the most in the S&P 500 after cutting its U.S. subscriber forecast following a price increase. Netflix slid 24 percent, the most since October 2004, to $155.19.

•Apple (AAPL) rallied sharply by 5% in after-hours trading yesterday after reporting Q2 EPS of $7.47, which was well above the consensus of $7.30.
•Earnings reports released thus far this morning have mostly been positive but there were some high profile disappointments such as Boeing and Caterpillar. Notable reports include Reynolds American (RAI -1.99%) (0.84 vs 0.835), WellPoint (WLP +0.59%) (2.60 vs 2.08), Thermo Fisher (TMO -0.90%) (1.32 vs 1.30), Praxair (PX -0.01%) (1.49 vs 1.48), Wyndham (WYN -0.15%) (0.98 vs 0.91), Eli Lilly (LLY +0.71%) (1.16 vs 1.01), Northrop Grumman (NOC +0.36%) (2.05 vs 1.71), Pepsico (PEP -0.23%) (1.31 vs 1.19), Moody's (MCO +0.68%) (1.00 vs 0.91), Ford (F -0.59%) (0.45 vs 0.37), Motorola Solutions (MSI +0.18%) (1.12 vs 1.04), Seagate (STX -3.23%) (1.20 vs 1.19). Negative reports this morning include Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS -0.29%) (0.84 vs 0.842), Allegheny (ATI +1.94%) (0.04 vs 0.12), AmerisourceBergen (ABC -2.31%) (0.73 vs 0.74), T Rowe Price (TROW -0.52%) (0.92 vs 0.95), Boeing (BA +0.87%) (1.41 vs 1.58), Caterpillar (CAT -0.56%) (1.45 vs 1.68).
•Virtually all of the earnings reports released after yesterday's close were above consensus. Notable reports included Robert Half (RHI -0.14%) (0.46 vs consensus of 0.43), Electronic Arts (EA -0.75%) (-0.40 vs -0.60), Juniper Networks (JNPR +2.84%) (0.29 vs 0.25), Discover Financial (DFS -0.33%) (1.20 vs 1.15), International Game Technology (IGT -3.12%) (0.33 vs 0.31), and Linear Technology (LLTC +0.57%) (0.43 vs 0.42). Companies that reported worse than expected results included AT&T (T +0.65%) (0.67 vs 0.68), and Norfolk Southern (NSC -0.66%) (1.46 vs 1.49).