3SOF

Internet Iniative Japan (IIJI). The Group's principal activity is to provide internet access services such as dedicated access and dial-up access. The Group is also engaged in systems integration services and internet data centre services.

The long term chart:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=439;image)

The short term chart:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=440;image)

One big white candle with explosive volume. As a speculator I wouldn't need more to buy some stocks, because the chart shows demand is a lot stronger than supply.

But this stock has a story, and one of those I like most: a buy the rumor story !

«TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 27, 2005--Internet Initiative Japan Inc. (IIJ, NASDAQ:IIJI), one of Japan's leading Internet access and comprehensive network solutions providers, today announced that it received notification that the Tokyo Stock Exchange has approved the listing of its shares of common stock on the Mothers market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. IIJ believes that listing on the Mothers market will further expand its business by strengthening its presence in Japan and by providing additional financing options. The expected listing date is June 23, 2005.»

«The offer price for the public offering in Japan will be based on the closing price of IIJ's American Depositary Receipts on the NASDAQ National market on the date prior to the pricing date subject to a discount determined in accordance with market demand. Pricing is expected to occur on a date between June 14 and June 16.»

IIJI is rising today primarily because of this IPO. The fact will only be true by the 23th of June, and pricing will be established taking into account the price on the Nasdaq by the 14th of June. Japanese investors are getting ahead and buying right now on the Nasdaq, because demand for the IPO is staggering. I believe we have a setup for price appreciation here.

Also, the earnings release from the company were encouraging:

«Japan provided the day's biggest percentage gainer. Internet Initiative Japan Inc. (IIJI: news, chart, profile) soared $1.27, or 28.2%, to $5.77, and was the second-biggest traded ADR of the session. The company posted a profit of 2.9 billion yen for fiscal 2005 vs. a loss of 2.3 billion yen a year ago. For fiscal 2006, the company said it's targeting a profit of 3.7 billion yen on revenue of 46.33 billion yen.»

Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 95% this month (it started this month). If you want to join our community and receive our free newsletter, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).

... I don't care the stock is up 11% in the pre-market. I expect it to reach at least $12 on the next two weeks.

David-

You, the team and the people that post here are oustanding.  This site is completely different from most of the garbage that is posted out there.  It's really great how you discuss the entry and exit points for each trade you take on and why it is being done.  Makes it easier for someone like myself that is a rookie at this.

I've been tracking the performance of the picks over the past couple of weeks and it is fantastic.  I wish I was in a position to move on this one this morning but it appears you think there is plenty of room to run.  Keep up the great work and thanks to all! :)

Welcome aboard Austin  ;)

It is really tough, I think, for a seasoned trader to buy a gap up like you did David.  It looks like its going to turn out great!  I was worried when I heard but your analysis was dead on.  (applaud)  Well done.

Very Nice job David on this pick,compliments to you :D

I'm in!$!$!$!$!$ Hope to do the same here!$!$!$!$!$

David-- Why $12 target?

The Irishman
PS- New to your site and I'm quite impressed.

I want to thank all of the people on this website. Today, I'll make my first donation to you guys, it's well deserved.
long live to 3stocks !

You guys seem to really know you way around in this business. I plan to use 1/3 of my portfolio trading your trades. And if it turns out well you can count on me making donations!
Keep up the good work. And yes why will it go much higher than today, you said 12, any peticular reason for that?
A Thakinu
ps. where do you guys live?

Stocks with huge momentum be that upwards or downwards 'tend' to revisit where they have been before. Last time IIJI got huge vol and momo in mid 2003 it spent a few days around $12 and spiked to $14. Hence the target area.
That is why I also bought IIJI.
Mike

Right now,,Pre Market trading its sitting at $8.04.Looking good  :)

Thanks for the info Mike. Much appreciated.
  The Irishman

Unfortunately I was in the process of changing brokers when I was told about you.  Amazing picks.  If you keep this up everyone will know about you.  I am sure it is going thru our group as we speak and that is 7500.  Keep up the great picks.

David:  On IIJI`s Website [http://www.iij.ad.jp./en/] , Press Release 05/27/2005, they
           clearly post their  financial data in miillions, not billions of YEN, so, though
           turnaround, a meager profit of 2.9 m YEN ...

First of all . Love the site so far. No trades yet on reccomendations but will soon. Glad I found something that can teach me some investing ideas.

Anyway please keep us posted on the IIJI . I would like to get in at the right time.

I'm new here and new to investing and I'm sooooo glad to find this site.
I bought IIJI and I look forward to your tips in the future.
Thanks guys.

wzcch,

Are you sure about that meager profit?
If you are talking about net income for 3-31-2005, the report that I saw says 2906 million yen, which is 2.9 billion yen.  :)
Maybe I'm missing something. Please tell me if I'm wrong.

I see on the company's website it earned 2.906 million yen which is 2.9 billion yen as ossan said, turning around from a 2.27 billion yen loss the same period last year.

Aussietrader was absolutely right when he described why I'm pointing $12 as a short term target. Another reason is that this mix of news and story about IIJI should at least return a 100% profit. It's not everyday that a company makes such a turnaround in earnings and also makes a debut on a new exchange, getting extra large funds for further expansion.

But of course, it can't consecutively gap higher. Let me say one thing: buying a gap up after a big rise is a dangerous thing, you need to have real good reasons to do something like that (like I did when I bought @$6.42). After an enormous gap up and further rise it gapped up again so IIJI naturally couldn't hold.

But, in my profiting position I could not sell, not with this kind of story. Why? I could lose my position, and I have to hope my profits will grow larger, specially when there's a strong fundamental reason to it.

Now, it is possible the stock will go down further today, I don't know and I'm not concerned. The reason I bought IIJI, more than technical (altough technicals confirmed the story), was because of a buy the rumor kind of story. And people will only end buying the rumor when the news is out. That's the time to sell, not now, I believe. So I'll hold until closer to the June 14th.

David, another amazing pick. I figured I would buy on Tuesday after doing some DD this weekend, your post just gave me more confidence in this long position.

The coming weeks will be very interesting.

Thanks,
Ram

David:  In the Press Release on their Website they list Consolidated Net Income
           ( under GAAP) expressed in millions of JPY per March 31, 2005: 2,906 !
            So I still can`t follow your math to equate that amount with 2.9 billlion yen ?
            2.906 million = 2million 906 thousand JPY. Teach me, if  I`am wrong !
                                         
                                                         Thanks, Walter

2,906 million NOT 2.906 million you desperate short. If you can't figure it out you better cover ASAP. There will be no pity and no mercy for the shorts in the coming days.

Ram

link to report on website:(6th dot down)

http://www.iij.ad.jp/en/IR/4q04/IIJI4Q04.pdf

Hey Ramlau, Wzcch was just asking a question.

I don't think Wzcch is a desperate short at all.

Regardless, the reason for entry remains that the risk reward is favourable, the financial mumbo jumbo (behind the scenes) is secondary.
Mike

I apologize. It just seems a little suspicious. All I'm saying is if you cannot tell the difference between 2,906 and 2.906 then it's quite hard to even have McDonald's to be your employer.

Ram

... and europeans and americans are similar creatures but they have their «little differences», as said in the Pulp Fiction movie  :)

In the US the decimal part of a number is separated by ".". In Europe it is by ",". I believe this explains everything, at least I hope so.

David,

It seems this stock will make you very famous. I don't remember seeing anything like this since IPIX's run to $27 last year. Congratulations!

Ram

thanks a lot for this great pick. after i sell iiji i want to make a good donation to you guys, is there any other way to donate without paypal ?

i'm waiting to sell tomorrow @ 10

Quote from: ttvert on June 02, 2005, 07:13:16 PM

thanks a lot for this great pick. after i sell iiji i want to make a good donation to you guys, is there any other way to donate without paypal ?

i'm waiting to sell tomorrow @ 10

Thanks ;)
Right now we only have Paypal as a payment option.

best regards and good trades ;)

A chart expert I am not.  Here is a comment from another board in regards to  IIJI:

For those of you that follow point and figure charting, IIJI just had a quadruple top breakout and their point and figure chart indicates a bullish target of $17.50, I can live with that!

Any validity to it ?

That red candle on Wednesday cleaned up many technical guys, because after that enormous gap up a close at the low seemed very bearish. But if you know candlestick theory you knew that was a bullish continuation pattern. Buyers came in again and the stock shot up 25% to new highs.

I believe this fundamental story is too powerful to stop. I'm not selling at $10 and I'm not selling at $12. And I won't sell at $17.5. Forget about price, focus on time.

People in Japan will buy stock at what price it is in the 14-16 June period at the Nasdaq. You know how these IPO's work, investors go to their bank and subscribe shares with little if any insight about the stock market. Insiders of IIJI want to sell shares at the IPO as high as possible. Current shareholders want the same to happen. Investors in Japan unfortunately will get burned after the IPO (but don't spread the word on this).

Holding until June the 14 th. The price is no issue here. Hope and dream it will rise beyond our imagination.

Couldn't agree more, gonna let IIJI do some work for me.

Can anybody tell me the difference - if any - between a "real" IPO and a second listing ?
Since IIJI had it`s IPO on the Nasdaq, their coming "IPO" on the Mothers market of
Tokyo Stock Exchange will be a second listing.
                                                                 Thanks,  Walter

The Japanese are amazing. I'm quite sure they are funneling some Yens to the 'Daq. Today I added my last position @ $9.40 and I will hold till mid-June. Also took a gambling position wiht EWEB at open - it's doing fine so far.

Ram

I've just sold half of my position @ $10.

Just to say that I've also donate $500 to you guys, thats well deserved, I hope this helps keeping up this website. 3stocks is my new home  ;D

compliments from Brazil !

Quote from: ttvert on June 03, 2005, 11:03:41 AM

I've just sold half of my position @ $10.

Just to say that I've also donate $500 to you guys, thats well deserved, I hope this helps keeping up this website. 3stocks is my new home  ;D

compliments from Brazil !

Thanks a lot ttvert !

This is really helping our project.

btw: I love your country ;) Lot's of Samba and Nice girls   >:D

our best regards and good trades !

Got 3 trailing stops set up in the morning, none of them got triggered. If the low $10 holds for IIJI, I expect to stayed margined out thru the weekend. The volume has yet to peak.

Ram

hi im new here, i just wanna point out something about IIJI; the volume right now is going to hit 19 million where the average in a month is 300,000 i think that the japanese traders are already trying to buy stocks and heading 2 weeks ahead after the price hit of june 14.

thx great pick lol too controversial in yahoo finance

And then two stops got popped. Hate to see that but then it's due correction comes before next week.

Will buy back some before close.

Ram

It's scary... so scary like wednesday session...

But I think this is normal, lots of people want to enjoy their profits during the weekend.

WOW!  Thanks for this find. I only have a small position in IIJI. It happened to be the first
issue I looked at, expect a sign of gratitude when I sell. :D

Would you still buy on Monday? Thanks

If IIJI would rise at the same pace it has been doing over the last 5 days until June the 14th the stock would be at $26 by then. Altough this is not impossible (not at all) you can't expect it to rise even more on the next day because there are enormous profits on the stock.

When IIJI finds a minor resistance investors with big outstanding profits run for the exit because they're afraid of losing those profits. Then the stock rebounds and they have to jump back in. They'll lose big part of the rise with this attitude.

I have my position and I don't even consider selling. If that were my strategy I would buy more on every pull back until June the 14 th. My motive to buy is based on a buy the rumor story and the time to sell only comes when the rumor turns into a fact.

Is anyone hereing anything about IIJI only having a public offering?
not an IPO???

Quote from: pirus on June 05, 2005, 08:54:34 PM
Is anyone hereing anything about IIJI only having a public offering?
not an IPO???

Hello Pirus,

Just read closely all the content of this topic since the beginning.

best regards,

My question is what is keeping Japanese investors from trading in the Nasdaq market? How does this affect their upcoming offering?

Many thanks in advance.

Quote from: RichL74 on June 05, 2005, 11:15:48 PM
My question is what is keeping Japanese investors from trading in the Nasdaq market? How does this affect their upcoming offering?

Many thanks in advance.

To trade the nasdaq the japanese people must have an account with an american broker i guess, or their home banking must permit trading on the US. The general public on Japan, as on the rest of the world, dont even know how to do that.

Off course, that a lot of japanese active traders already trade the nasdaq and already bought IIJI, but imagine the rest of the general public ? thats huge !!!!

Thanks for your explanation.

What is everyone's outlook for this week? Does anyone have a read on the Japanese sentiments on this stock? I'm looking to go long, REAL LONG on this stock and would like to see how positive this company is to the average Japanese investor. I've been long on Google since the IPO and would like to move some of the profits to another winner.

Thanks again.

Here is some more information I got .... hope you can decipher.

I stopped out on IIJI automatically on that end of Friday profit taking fall back towards $9. I can't watch the market all day so stops are vital. Yes IIJI is way overextended, but the momentum and 'story' is powerful and will probably see continuation rather than collapse. Momo traders are playing for sure. Huge vol on Friday created black candle with large top shadow, not great signal, but the action on this stock is not over by a long way.
Mike

I hope you didn't lost your position aussie ... remember Old Turkey in Reminiscences  ;)

IIJI slipped into negative territory this morning. I guess this is the best time, if ever, to jump into this stock.

Keeping a close watch on this forum. Thank you all that have contributed.

I have my position thanks  ;)

Testing the highs of the day with strong intraday volume in the last 30 minutes  ;)

There's some action out there !  >:D  big fight  >:D

The fight is over...

Next battle a couple of $ ahead ;-)

Agreed. Forget about the 7.5 puts, we are talking about the teens a week from now.

Ram

Wasn't is interesting how it went up against 9.88 four different times, only to fall back down? Then close was amazing.

I bought a few K shares at 7.80 and have been happy with the recent surge. It seems like the old days (ex. JNPR).

Question:  Does anyone think IIJI has the potentila to be > $20 in the short term (30 days)?  With the action, it sure would seem so.

In addition, any history with stocks hitting Mothers and gains after that?

Thanks

Great forum.

Hey Aussie, good thing you got in early today. Nice trading.... ;D

According to the projections, the next resistance level is around 10.70.

The rest of the week probably around 11.13. Let's see if it holds true.

Toshiba to Adopt IIJ's Anti-spam Solution
Monday June 6, 10:00 pm ET
Ensuring email protection and security with a multi-tiered filtering technology

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 7, 2005--Internet Initiative Japan Inc. (IIJ, NASDAQ: IIJI), one of Japan's leading Internet access and comprehensive network solutions providers, today announced that it will provide Toshiba Corporation (Toshiba) with an anti-spam solution.

The anti-spam solution being provided to Toshiba consists of two components: IIJ Edge Filter and IIJ Spam Mail Filter. The IIJ Edge Filter identifies and restricts mass spam mail that is sent to a single server in a short period of time, as well as mail that clearly contains suspicious content. The IIJ Spam Mail Filter determines a spam rating for all incoming mail messages and filters them on that basis. IIJ Edge Filter was implemented in December of last year, while IIJ Spam Mail Filter will be implemented in June of this year.

Every year, mountains of spam are sent to users without their consent, and every year the perpetrators devise more devious and vicious methods to send even more. The problem has become so critical that more than 70% of the mail sent in the U.S. is said to be spam. The problem is becoming more serious in Japan as well, and for businesses in particular, responding to the growing flood of spam mail is a drain on budgets and systems, not to mention a drag on productivity for entire companies.

Toshiba maintains tens of thousands of mail accounts on it's Group network, which makes resolving the spam mail problem a priority. IIJ has worked with Toshiba in the past when it decided to implement IIJ's Web Gateway Service to provide securely managed Web access. With IIJ's advanced Internet technology, the IIJ Web Gateway's record of high performance, and IIJ's pioneering efforts in anti-spam solutions, it was natural choice for Toshiba to enlist IIJ's help again on this project.

After implementing IIJ Edge Filter, Toshiba saw a 30% drop in mail traffic, and this performance is expected to increase once the IIJ Spam Mail Filter is brought on-line.

The IIJ Anti-spam Mail Solution

The IIJ Anti-spam Mail Solution consists of the components described below, and these components create a multi-tiered filtering structure that achieves better filtering rates on spam mail with far fewer false positives, and removes the need to waste money on additional equipment.

IIJ Edge Filter

IIJ's proprietary anti-spam solution uses a three-pronged approach to stop large mass mail transmissions before they reach a customer's system: (1) Mail volume control, which checks the number of messages received in a certain unit of time to determine when large volume mail transmissions are occurring, (2) Access control, which uses IP addresses and sender/receiver information to interrupt or restrict mail from specific sources, and (3) File extension filtering, which interrupts or restricts messages with file attachments that have certain file extensions. This service prevents damage that is caused by large volumes of mail hitting a user's system at once, and improves system availability.

Future developments will make the system compatible with the up and coming sender authentication technology for fighting spam.

IIJ Spam Mail Filter

U.S.-based MX Logic's filtering engine provides the spam filtering features that determine the spam rating of all incoming messages. The spam level is then used to filter out spam. Messages with a high spam rating are put into quarantine automatically on a remote folder where they can be deleted en masse, thus greatly reducing the load on the customer's servers.

E-mail has become an indispensable tool in our daily lives, and IIJ will continue working to develop services that make it easier to use.

About IIJ

Founded in 1992, Internet Initiative Japan Inc. (IIJ, NASDAQ: IIJI) is one of Japan's leading Internet-access and comprehensive network solutions providers. The company has built one of the largest Internet backbone networks in Japan, and between Japan and the United States. IIJ and its group of companies provide total network solutions that mainly cater to high-end corporate customers. The company's services include high-quality systems integration and security services, Internet access, hosting/housing, and content design.

My guess is that IIJI withheld this information for awhile. A coincidence that IIJI offering in Japan is only 1 week away?

I think not.

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Probably not the last 'nice' press release leading up to the Mothers Market debut IMHO. Thanks for the news link Rich.
Mike

The time to sell IIJI comes only next week. Be careful not to lose your position just because you're protecting huge profits. Hope and dream the stock will rise beyond your imagination and sit tight.

But don't turn this speculative venture into an investment, the stock will probably crash down after the enormous rise that I expect in the next few days (but don't spread the word on this).

Increased my position this morning. Just to see if I can catch the gap up today. I think many weak short positions out there deciding to cover due to the positive news with Toshiba.

David,

Based on the recent action, have you increased your share price expectations? 

Read this Deck:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=310.msg1433#msg1433 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=310.msg1433#msg1433)

Price is no issue for me on IIJI, only time.

Anybody who sells his stake in IIJI is in danger of losing his position and a big part of the move that is unfolding. No price is a good price to sell before June the 14 th. Hope and dream the stock will rise beyond your imagination.

Again, I have to agree with David and Frederick. The stock has proven to be supported by traders and investors very consistently since the Memorial Day weekend. The June and July puts and calls further affirm the uptrend of the stock in the short run.

Longs, congratulations. You have found a real winner.

Ram

Thanks Ramlau.

Today we had another meeting lines candlestick pattern on IIJI which is a bullish continuation pattern. The stock opens gap up and then closes near the previous days close - it was just closing the gap and found support at that zone.

Tomorrow I expect IIJI to open higher and make another relative high above $11. It doesn't make any sense to sell when you have a buy the rumor story like the one that is working on IIJI. Sell the fact, and the fact only becomes a fact when it happens.

David,
I don't know their methods (other than it involves volume & price), but stock100.com shows a July 15th target of 20.40.  They might have a shorter term one, but I can't seem to get less than a 30 day forecast. I'm still holding to your exit though. Do you know anything about them?

Thanks.

http://stock100.com/

I don't know them, I've added the website to my favorites. I believe that target price is as valid as any, it's not a good thing to try to predetermine your profits. If you start thinking about $20 and making plans on it perhaps you won't be very happy if you have to sell it at $12 or at $14, altough you've just made an 80% profit or so.

Live on the present. The stock closed @ $10.20.

You have a pleaseant afternoon  :)

100stock.com doesn't give any realistic forecast.
I think it's a computer generated forecast based on price movement and volume.
I wouldn't rely on that a bit.
Good luck all.

great website  :o

love this IIJI pick, will donate when I sell

Thanks Stock Finder.  It's a very strange site, no about us, log in. I was trying to find out how they did their calcucations. Very Strange.

So I was not paying attention today and I had a stop @ 10. Stupid me! I'm such a chicken shit. Oh well, I'll be back in during pre-market hours. I hate waking up 4:30 AM (PST), but if I can get back in without much of a gap, I'll be ecstatic.

The fluctuation in this stock scares the crap out of me. Much like last Friday's 10% drop to close out the week. That would be a tough one to withstand.

Anyways, I should trust my instincts more often. I feel confident about IIJI. Especially when the company can post good numbers and the looming offering in Japan should provide the surge in demand.

Good luck everybody..

Today looked pretty solid after 11:00 am.  I think we'll form a base here, good resistance at 9.50.  I'm looking forward to more good news before the 14th to raise pps, good for us, good for them.

when you put 6 zeros, every figure become in billions...comma (,) is used in other countries to separate, not (.) period like US...

I got in @ $10 and will look to double my position tomorrow. SUBSTANTIALLY lower volume today. My opinion is that people are holding on and those that have weak positions were taking their profits.

Date       Open    High   Low   Last    change  volume       % Chg
06/08/05 10.25  10.25  9.41  9.55    -0.65    5204780     -6.37 %
06/07/05 10.93  10.98  9.94  10.20  -0.08    11828300   -0.78 %
06/06/05 9.63    10.29  9.03  10.28  +1.02   13309500   +11.02 %
06/03/05 9.50    10.57  9.14  9.26    +0.42   23670400   +4.75 %

3 more trading days till IIJI is available in Japan!! Keep strong....

After all that meeting lines pattern didn't pay off, nothing is always right.

I don't think IIJI will fall below that circle on the chart below. Not selling yet.

Interesting to see direction today.  Down slightly at the open, but on decreasing volume.  Must still be shaking out the weak hands.

Quote from: atalltexan on June 09, 2005, 09:43:36 AM
Interesting to see direction today.  Down slightly at the open, but on decreasing volume.  Must still be shaking out the weak hands.

The drop down to the 9.30s was extremely quick, and I would say on less then 15k volume.  I suppose we'll see..

I guess IIJI will rally today by the end of the session ... still believe the higher price to sell will come somewhere between 14-16 of June.

Have a nice day !

I'm buying more.....

yes I can relate to you ,as I have an important position here and yesterday I watched it fall like a brick ,but thank god I did N sell ,
same thing withmy GEOI but I sold only to be sorry ,just waiting for the dip again and get back in
John 8)

I think this is a total psych job by stock manipulators. I wouldn't be surprized if this stock lags right up until 5 minutes before the close on the 16th. There is no way the Japanese would want the price of IIJI to be under higher levels than we have already seen. I think a modest estimate would be between 14-16, maybe even $18. This is purely a test, a real hard test. Those willing to get busy with other opprotunities, will be rewarded when they return to this one

Here's how I sleep at night. Unless I'm delusional...
IIJ announced their IPO PPS will correspond to the Nasdaq ADR price (See PR).

The ADR ratio is 2000:1 (2000 ADR = 1 Japanese share).
http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/abacus-stocks-Japan-ADRs.html

Take a look at the Tokyo IPO page and pick anyone of the Mother's Post IPO listings (pick one that has comparable, or even lesser fundamentals than IIJ (their data is in the Pre IPO section)).  There are others but this is a start
http://www.tokyoipo.com/top/en/index.php

Enter the POST IPO company name in the Tokyo Stock Market Page and look at current price and history on the open market.
http://www.tse.or.jp/english/index.shtml

All I can say now is do some math, currency conversion, and project even a conservative post IPO PPS increase.  At its current USD price it would be about 2mill Yen per share on the Tokyo market.  There are much lesser companies at 3mill Yen...and some higher.

Again, I think it's the story... I think we have a few buck to go for the IPO price to be set where they want it (leaving it room to go up the typical 100% - 150%).

I think the MM are staging it nicely...Maybe I'm crazy.

----
Where are my manners???  Hello everyone.  I seen David's name come up on a few other boards so I decided to sign-on for a while.  I like the civility, and the ideas/plays.  I'm usually a long-long, forensics of the story, fundamental analysis, research, research, research, analyze the technical jump in point kinda guy (sorry for that). But I'm looking to hone my skills more on the technical, short term plays.
Nice job David and Co.
Regards,

I don't think you're crazy. Thanks for providing all of that research, I 'm impressed. So much that I may hold on to a few thousand of my shares for the post IPO.  It was a great help. Here is the direct link to IIJI ipo info:
http://www.tokyoipo.com/top/en/index.php?id=pre&seqid=1445

Much like yesterday, even lower volume. I can sense much anticipation by the public. Shorts are afraid to jump in, longs are afraid to let go. Only a couple more days.. and oh yeah, I doubled my position @ 9.30!! Woohooo!  ;D


Date       Open    High   Low   Last    change  volume       % Chg
06/09/05 9.57    9.93    9.29  9.65   +0.10    2976600      +1.05
06/08/05 10.25  10.25  9.41  9.55    -0.65    5204780     -6.37 %
06/07/05 10.93  10.98  9.94  10.20  -0.08    11828300   -0.78 %
06/06/05 9.63    10.29  9.03  10.28  +1.02   13309500   +11.02 %
06/03/05 9.50    10.57  9.14  9.26    +0.42   23670400   +4.75 %

I want to thank slc378 research, very interesting info indeed. I think that's the kind of story (real story, no doubt about that) we need at this point for IIJI to go higher.

IPO's of these small companies in Japan have skyrocket after its debut on the Jasdaq. This happens because, after a 14 or 15 year bear market in Japan, the houses launch stocks on the market at a very discount price relative to intrinsic value, so they can slowly regain confidence from the public.

The difference between those other IPO's and the IIJI IPO is that IIJI is already trading in the US. The rise that would normally happen after the IPO in Japan is already happening in the US.

So I'll stick to my point that IIJI will reach its high for the short/medium term between 14 and 16 th of June. I don't know if the japanese will bid the stock up after the IPO, but I guess not, because the leading quotes for IIJI will be coming out of the Nasdaq, not of the Jasdaq, because the float traded and liquidity will be much bigger in the Nasdaq than in the Jasdaq. Arbitrage players won't let the two quotes have much spread between them.

Quoting tommyt:

Quote from: tommyt on June 09, 2005, 01:07:05 PM
I think this is a total psych job by stock manipulators. I wouldn't be surprised if this stock lags right up until 5 minutes before the close on the 16th. There is no way the Japanese would want the price of IIJI to be under higher levels than we have already seen. I think a modest estimate would be between 14-16, maybe even $18. This is purely a test, a real hard test. Those willing to get busy with other opprotunities, will be rewarded when they return to this one

That 5 minutes thing is not accurate I believe tommyt. The price set for the IPO in Japan will be calculated using the average prices from the period of the 14 to 16 th of June, so it doesn't make sense to push higher in the last 5 minutes.

Coming back to IIJI, everything is going as planned, the stock remained on the circle below and is setting up for a new rally to stay really high at the IPO price setting period.

Strong move this morning. Looks like the race was on to gobble up the shares.

here we go..

Making the next move.  Looks like it's headed for $11 shortly.

Great move... new relative high...  ;)

Here we go !

OK ,,, Please excuse me if this is a stupid question for all, but this (some of this) is new to me, and i would like to learn from others sucesses or failures. slc378 posted ( thank you for the research ) some compariable ipos in Japan.  If my math is correct??? They seem to open (compariable companies ) around 40 us dollars. Is that right?? But slc378 seemed to think that their is after that IPO, room for 100 to 150% growth, would that be in the us? I see where  that would happen on the jasdaq,  but  I dont understand why that would happen in the US. HELp  lol. Just on a little quest for wisdom. I think i would like to know how to buy ipo"s first offering in Japan, that is my next research project .    Tony

Check out

http://www.tokyoipo.com/top/iposche/index.php?j_e=E

Scroll down to today date in column 1, look for MTH.1 in col 2, and see stock price and % change in col 8

Actually, if you scroll down to the date 06/23 you will find Internet Initiative Japan
and benenth the name you will see 3774 -MTH-1, no price info is listed, only number of shares to be issued.

$12 price target ??  :)

It looks like the 2nd run of the day is starting.  Perhaps to $12 today.

Quote from: agatto2 on June 10, 2005, 12:23:43 PM
OK ,,, Please excuse me if this is a stupid question for all, but this (some of this) is new to me, and i would like to learn from others sucesses or failures. slc378 posted ( thank you for the research ) some compariable ipos in Japan.  If my math is correct??? They seem to open (compariable companies ) around 40 us dollars. Is that right?? But slc378 seemed to think that their is after that IPO, room for 100 to 150% growth, would that be in the us? I see where  that would happen on the jasdaq,  but  I dont understand why that would happen in the US. HELp  lol. Just on a little quest for wisdom. I think i would like to know how to buy ipo"s first offering in Japan, that is my next research project .    Tony

Hi Tony,
IIJ will be listed on TSE's Mothers, not Jasdaq.  I'm not sure I'd sign up to $40 but we can always hope.  If it we to reach that number, it would be after the IPO methinks.  

Once IIJ is open on Mothers, arbitrageurs process will "synchronize" the PPS between the markets -taking advantage of currency fluctuations, market timings, PPS spreads between the two markets.  High demand in one market could lead to cancellation of shares in another market (when they are sold) for repatriation of shares to the home market (when they are sold), and thus, a lower supply in one to satisfy higher demand in another (sorta like buying back shares)...the the arbitrage continues.

Maybe someone else has a simpler way to put it.
Regards,
s

Yes. We have been right all along since the Memorial Day. Also, shorts are running out of shares.

Ram

Thanks slc378 that explains a bit more for me. I have been an hvac engineer for my whole life , so the way the markets distribute shares facinate me its a totally different world. Again thanks for the info. And of course i invested in this stock as well.    Thanks again   Tony

Does anyone know if IIJI gain today was merely shorts covering before the weekend. Is it so that they don't face the risk of another pop before the market opens on Monday?

Wow...what a run!

Quote from: RichL74 on June 10, 2005, 03:51:36 PM
Does anyone know if IIJI gain today was merely shorts covering before the weekend. Is it so that they don't face the risk of another pop before the market opens on Monday?

There were very few short shares available.  Tension builds till the IPO set date, and again at the actual IPO.  Of course, my guess is as good as anyone else's  ;)

"I don't care the stock is up 11% in the pre-market. I expect it to reach at least $12 on the next two weeks." - David Randolph, 5/31/05

The inevitable has already happened, my friend.

Ram

I can't see this trading anywhere in afterhours but Archlipelago Bid 12.00 /Ask 12.00

It's currently at 12.24

Hi David,
When you are planning to exit from this position. Do you think June 13th is too early?
What you suggest to your subscriber's?

Hi David,

I came across your site , and your name is famously mentioned in YAHOO Finance Message Board. I am just confused about the keydates flying here and there.

The IPO in Japan will commence on the 23rd, but hence what is the significance of the 14th of July key date?

From Singapore

Hi Im Tony not Dave,

     I think i know the answer to your question though. The price that the ipo will be offered at will be, the average price bettween the 14th and the 16th of June ( according to the company) . Thats as far as i can figure, and their is a link in the topic that verifies that somewhere? But if thats wrong some one will correct please.   

Quote: If two of use always have the same opion ----- one of us is not needed.

Everyone is focused on the short term results of the IPO, which is fine (and I think lucrative), but I recommend looking beyond the IPO (weeks and months, not years.

Take a look at IIJ itself...its products and services, its relationship to other corporations...look at the pan-Asia picture.

The recent run to its current Price may only be HALF of the story.
Regards,

I see some people falling in love for IIJI. I urge not to do that. Stocks are to be bought and sold, not loved. Remember IIJI almost quadrupled in less than a month. This is pure speculation and stock manipulation.

Altough I believe the above statements are true, I'm not selling yet. I will sell during the 14-16 th of June period without a doubt, when some upward spike occurs or something. Of course I'll let you know in this board.

From the next Tuesday to Thursday the average IIJI stock price will dictate the price set for the IPO in the Mother's Stock Exchange in Japan (not the Jasdaq? Ok, thanks). Insiders and current shareholders want the price to be set as high as possible because the higher the price the higher the benefit for the company. Japanese investors will pay whatever is necessary, the crowd doesn't even know what they're buying or at what price. Manipulators just need to put the price up there, and they're getting help from speculators like us.

After the 16 th of June no more effort is needed to keep the price up and the stock will tumble. Perhaps not much, because there will be some people still waiting to see if the second listing in Japan brings the usual success (as slc378 wrote - thanks). I don't know if that rumor will gain traction, but I'm not paying to see. As I've wrote before, we can't compare the success of other IPO's in Japan with this one ... this stock already went up 300%, will it go up another 100 or 150% after the IPO in Japan? I don't think that's credible, remember the other IPO's were set at a big discount and that's not the case with IIJI ... but that thinking only helps, please don't spread the word on my analysis, the more people believe IIJI will move a lot higher after the second listing in Japan, the better for us. Spread that word if you please, not mine (and I hope they're right, since I won't short the stock I would like to see it continue higher for as much as possible, so everyone could profit - but unfortunately that's not the way the stock market works).

$12 we've made in less than two weeks time. But there's no use in counting profits before they're actually in our account balance. And there's no use in cutting the possibility for these profits to grow more. So I'm not selling IIJI tomorrow, not yet.

Hi David,

Is it impossible to reach the 20$ per share barrier? Will the 12.xx $ high reached previous on the year 2003 will only be the highest peak this coming week ahead?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=IIJI&a=06&b=1&c=2003&d=06&e=31&f=2003&g=d

From Singapore

Nothing is impossible in the stock market. I'm expecting a big advance tomorrow and I know now exactly when to sell, but I don't know at what price. I'll tell you when to sell, considering my analysis of the stock.

Have a nice day in Singapore  :)

Short term is probably in your perspective, but is it not advissable to keep hanging with this instrument?

Can this IIJI performed like the GOOG ? GOOG last IPO was just less than $100, and currently it's almost reaching a three fold price.

Once again , thanks for your insights. Have a nice time also!

From Singapore
(currently in Taipei)

Think David said he wasn't willing to pay to find that out, we have already made a substantial profit.

IIJI advanced to $12 after hours and I expect a gap up open Monday for sure. I said ages ago that sometime stocks have 'memories' and return / advance to where they've been before. So for those that like targets lets see if IIJI tackles $14.10 today (3 years ago last run-up with huge momentum/volume).
Mike

David,  is this the week we see the high.  I know the price rising is great but this smells of price manipulation so they can get price up this level we are at right now for the IPO.
Those buying at this level sure are taking a lot risk and will probably end up holding the bag if they are not quick on the trigger.  I've that it always eisier to sell on the way up, because one the price start to fall buyers are gone..It been a great ride but I like what you said before "Do not fall in love with any stock"  .   I've also heard another one "pigs get slaughter"   .
Great site by the way, lots of great information.
One last question,  wouldn't you this consider selling into a spike like today and maybe tomorrow and then going short.  All stocks pull back and maybe after a good pullback we can get back in and ride it back up again.

Thanks for your post chepe. I know exactly when to sell IIJI and it's not today.

Today the rumor that is working is that insiders and current core shareholders will push the stock higher during the price setting period for the second listing in Japan (14-16th June).

When I sell this stock I don't want to ear about it for months, possibly years. I ain't going to buy on a pullback, I believe after this speculative venture the stock will be dead and falling for months.

Just my humble opinion. Thanks for your compliments on 3 Stocks !

Are you selling this week ?  I think I read that from you before.
This is extremely overbought, this is one place i definately would not be buying.
There are five gaps that will most likely get filled in the next few months and maybe next couple of weeks.  Boy, when support/manipulation stops  this thing is going to fall hard.

I'm selling this week, but not today. Today we have a powerful rumor working: «insiders and core shareholders will push prices as high as possible during the 14-16th June period».

Thanks David,  One thing I will be doing this week is buying as many puts as i can afford.
Seems to me after this week it will be like taking candy from a baby.
This is pure manipulation and rumors of course.. but please guys don't get got holding the bag.  I know David won't.   I rather miss a few cents from the top than not being able to sell on the way down and settle for dollars lowers.
I've been there before. it was pure greed on my part, hard lesson to learn.

out @ $12.61....not quite a double but since i got in at $7.22 i'm smiling. thanks dave ;D

The lunch time shake-out busted two trailing stops. Don't see any subsequent selloff though. Will get back in if the mid $12s hold.

Are we having fun! This is only the end of the begining.

Ram

Hey David --- Thanks again for keeping us all up to speed on this issue, an exit point is just as
important as entry. getting hard to hold, kinda want to take profits now. lol

I believe the time has not yet come to take profits. Still holding and expecting an end of the day rally. Not selling today. Can't be afraid of losing profits (I know this is against human nature), got to hope they will grow more.

"Still holding and expecting an end of the day rally." I said the exact same thing a few minutes ago on another board!

I wonder how many longs think alike. And look at those $10 calls. It's like a gold mine.

Ram

David,

Thanks for the post . Almost pulled the trigger. Now will wait till the end of the day and see what happens. ;D

P

I don't touch calls and puts. I believe it's a losers game. Why should I?

Good trades Ramlau  :)

dave i like your site, got a link here a while back. i have followed this stock for a long time and i agree on most of your points. this company went a long time with little or no news and then bam, it all let loose. we were still waiting on news of results from a rfid pilot test project that ended back in march 05. if they come out with positive news on that anytime during the pricing or ipo watch for another spike. if you check far back in their news youll find the story. im still in from 3-4 dollar range. watching closely for the sign to leave.

Had I had the balls (and foresight) to join the "losers" to buy the nearly worthless June 10 calls last week... Boy, almost $4 of PURE GIGANTIC profit!

Anyway, happy enough with my common shares. Tomorrow is the big day. We shall see what happens.

Ram

Quote from: David Randolph on June 13, 2005, 01:36:59 PM
I don't touch calls and puts. I believe it's a losers game. Why should I?

Good trades Ramlau  :)

David, when you bought this stock u mentioned it would rise thru 14 June! What did u base this on? TIA

Anybody from Japan here ?
Hows the general talk about this IPO in Tokio right now?

thanks !

What a ride today!!   :'(   A lot of new players coming in.
I'll be tightening up as we move closer to the IPO.

Any thoughts on the time difference between markets (i.e. on IPO day: holding after the close in US when it opens in Tokyo?)
Thanks.

First post here yet lurking for a month or so. David thank you for the research and insight with this website. You could easily hoard your picks to yourself yet you present them to your loyal following. This has been the only thing I have been holding for the past week and thinking tomorrow might be the end of what we have grown accustomed too. Either way consider me as another faithful follower of your amazing analysis!

Dan

This is it. Tomorrow is the 14th of June, the time has come to sell IIJI with an handsome and safe 100% plus profit !

Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

The rumor was: insiders and core shareholders will push the price of IIJI higher during the 14-16th of June period that will count for the IPO setting price in Japan.

The rumor will be a fact (or not), tomorrow. I'm selling the open, I hope it is a gap up.

Some people will be waiting for the results of the second listing in Japan and for the post market action. I won't do that and I've explained why - the stock already climbed 335% in the last month, and it will be the Nasdaq quotes who will lead, not the Tokyo quotes (much more shares will be traded on the Nasdaq than in Japan).

I believe the stock will be hovering around the $12-$15 range over the next few days and then price will collapse by the end of the month. But let me tell you this: love is a dangerous thing in the stock market (as in life  :P)). When I leave a lady I never want to look back.
Same thing with stocks and speculation, once a story is over don't look at it for several months or even years. Don't believe that «buy on a pull back» crap, after the speculation is over the stock will be filled with bagholders and no wise speculator wants to waste his time and money trying to surpass them.

Enjoy your profits but don't relax, more are coming  8)

Offer Price Determined?
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050614/145440.html?.v=1

IIJ Announces Determination of Offer Price for Shares Offered in Public Offering in Japan 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOKYO, June 14, 2005--Internet Initiative Japan Inc. (IIJ, NASDAQ: IIJI) today announced that it had determined the offer price for the shares to be offered in Japan in connection with the listing of its shares on the Mothers market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

In connection with the Mothers listing, IIJ plans to issue 2,500 new shares and two shareholders, NIF Ventures Co., Ltd. and JAFCO Co., Ltd., which are Japanese venture capital firms, plan to sell 900 existing shares in an underwritten public offering in Japan. In addition, the lead underwriter will be provided by the selling shareholders with an additional 500 shares to cover over-allotments. The newly issued shares will comprise approximately 6.1% of IIJ's total shares after giving effect to the issuance.

The offer price per share will be JPY 2,859,886. The offer price was determined, in accordance with the rules of the Japan Securities Dealers Association, based on the closing price of IIJ's American Depositary Receipts on the NASDAQ National market on June 13, 2005 subject to a discount of 6%, which is at the lower end of the discount range initially anticipated.

Proceeds to IIJ from the offerings, which amounted to approximately JPY 6.6 billion, are expected to be used for mainly its capital expenditure and research and development.

Any shares sold in connection with the proposed offering have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the Securities Act or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act.

http://www.iij.ad.jp/en/pressrelease/2005/0614.html

6% discount off the $13.90 closing price =$13.07

Sold IIJI @ $12.90 in the pre-market. The company surprised the market fixing the IPO price in Japan yesterday night. There's no motive to hold this stock now. I got a 100% profit, couldn't quite sell at the high because of this surprise news from the company (sordid news, pretty slick manipulators those guys at IIJI).

Have a nice day !

Same here out in pre market, sell the news.
Great trade and a super lesson in letting the winners run.
Mike

I'm out @ 12.85

It's unbelievable how the company has set the rules for the price fixing and then changed the rules at the last minute: IIJ Announces Determination of Offer Price for Shares Offered in Public Offering in Japan (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=153129&guid=%7BEEE757ED%2DADE3%2D407F%2D998E%2DFBAA50D3AAA0%7D&symb=)

This way they don't have to hold the price over the next 3 days. I expect a big fall on IIJI. But what am I doing? I just got a 100% profit in this stock, I don't want to talk or ear about her in a very long time ... kiss IIJI goodbye  :-*

Thanks for your direction on this one David.  I am out as well, and worked out to about 80% gain.  Donation on the way !

Thanks a lot atalltexan, I'm just working on 3 Stocks on Fire and trading now, those donations really help us going. We won't forget the people who are supporting us now in future developments of 3 Stocks on Fire !

Have a nice day  :D

Out at 12.73. Thanks guys for all your input.
this was ------- fun!!!

out @ 12.6$

thanks Dave

(forget my mail)

Sold at open and re-entered within a small gap. It's looking better than I thought.

Ram

Quote from: ramlau on June 14, 2005, 09:57:28 AM
Sold at open and re-entered within a small gap. It's looking better than I thought.

Ram

Too bad i didnt buy any of it last week . I'm too late. >:(

The IPO price is not $13.90 - 6%    It comes to be $6.7  , people are not doing their math right.

Symbol Japanese Yen Exchange
Rate U.S. Dollar Bid Ask
JPYUSD=X 2859886 Jun 14 0.009163 26,203.829308 0.009163 0.009165

$ 26,203.82 is what I got.  / 3900 = $6.71

David is right, take your profits now, I did. (12.90)
When people realize the right math, there will be blood in the streets.

if you already sold, then why are you trying to scare people on the yahoo board?

Quote from: David Randolph on June 14, 2005, 08:11:32 AM
Sold IIJI @ $12.90 in the pre-market. The company surprised the market fixing the IPO price in Japan yesterday night. There's no motive to hold this stock now. I got a 100% profit, couldn't quite sell at the high because of this surprise news from the company (sordid news, pretty slick manipulators those guys at IIJI).

Have a nice day !

Hey David, I placed an order to sell 15 min before the market opened & sold @ 12.98. You got 12.90? How does this work? first come, first served when the market opens?  Dan

I didn't sold at the open but in the pre-market, check my post. As usually happens, if I waited for the open I would have got a better exit price like you did  ;)

I said I don't want to talk about this stock again but I believe chepe's math isn't right. Why are you dividing the price per share for the number of shares issued?

To do that math you have to take into account which portion of the company is traded in Japan and in the US. The share price has nothing to do with it. I believe the man who said the price for stock sale in Japan was $13.9 - 6% = $13.07 was right.

This doesn't mean the stock won't go down hard, I think it will ... japanese investors will get burned, short term at least.They didn't buy at a discount, in fact, they're losing already with the stock currently trading at $12.70, they bought at $13.07.

Well, I don't want to think and talk about IIJI anymore, I'm looking for another big winner to replace it !

Quote from: chepe on June 14, 2005, 10:27:04 AM
The IPO price is not $13.90 - 6%    It comes to be $6.7  , people are not doing their math right.

It's not $13.9- 60% it's only 6%.
You need to do your math right. Whom you are trying to fool?

Quote from: thunderblues on June 14, 2005, 12:01:01 PM
Hey David, I placed an order to sell 15 min before the market opened & sold @ 12.98. You got 12.90? How does this work? first come, first served when the market opens?  Dan

Hi thunderblues,

David sold IIJI on the pre-market:

QuoteSold IIJI @ $12.90 in the pre-market.

best regards,

Shorts will destory the stock this week. But what will happen next Wednesday/Thursday is still an unknown. It was a great ride!

Ram

Not just shorts but stops as well.

I know all trades don't work as well as this one did, but David 3 cheers to you for perfect
entry and exit strategy.  ;D

I second that, I would have held the stock today if Dave had not suggested exiting -- so thanks to that I was out at $12.98.

Made a donation today.  Looking forward to more profits like this.

Thanks again for your donation Loffigus.

About IIJI... the party is over I guess.. but what a good party it was  >:D
I've just discarded this one out from my watch list ;)

Shorts are already making money on this one...

Thx Dave for such a good pick
making a donation!
anything I can do in return :)

IIJ Announces Expected Termination of Offering in Japan and Withdrawal of Proposed Japanese Listing
Friday June 17, 6:20 am ET


TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 17, 2005--Internet Initiative Japan Inc. (IIJ, NASDAQ: IIJI) today announced that as of the closing of the subscription period for its initial public share offering in Japan today, fewer than 300 prospective new investors had submitted purchase orders. As a consequence, IIJ will not be able to fulfill the listing requirements of the Mothers market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and will therefore be unable to satisfy the conditions to closing of this offering as set forth in the underwriting agreement relating thereto. IIJ expects to terminate this offering and withdraw its listing application early next week. IIJ will seek a domestic listing in Japan at a future date.
Any shares sold in connection with the proposed offering have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the Securities Act or an applicable exemption from the registratio ???n requirements of the Securities Act.

Statements made in this press release regarding IIJ's or management's intentions, beliefs, expectations, or predictions for the future are forward-looking statements that are based on IIJ's and managements' current expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections about its business and the industry. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause IIJ's actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.

On the heels of the above news, the stock is indicating down 20% at the open.  Perfect timing on this one David !!

Quote from: David Randolph on June 13, 2005, 05:20:54 PM
This is it. Tomorrow is the 14th of June, the time has come to sell IIJI with an handsome and safe 100% plus profit !

Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

The rumor was: insiders and core shareholders will push the price of IIJI higher during the 14-16th of June period that will count for the IPO setting price in Japan.

The rumor will be a fact (or not), tomorrow. I'm selling the open, I hope it is a gap up.

Some people will be waiting for the results of the second listing in Japan and for the post market action. I won't do that and I've explained why - the stock already climbed 335% in the last month, and it will be the Nasdaq quotes who will lead, not the Tokyo quotes (much more shares will be traded on the Nasdaq than in Japan).

I believe the stock will be hovering around the $12-$15 range over the next few days and then price will collapse by the end of the month. But let me tell you this: love is a dangerous thing in the stock market (as in life  :P)). When I leave a lady I never want to look back.
Same thing with stocks and speculation, once a story is over don't look at it for several months or even years. Don't believe that «buy on a pull back» crap, after the speculation is over the stock will be filled with bagholders and no wise speculator wants to waste his time and money trying to surpass them.

Enjoy your profits but don't relax, more are coming  8)

WOW...Did David call this one..I got out in pre market on the 14th at 12.55 and then the stock bounced a bit,then I felt like I should have held until the open but this relieves my decision and sets up another lesson of.. any profit is a good profit. Oh and listen and learn from all the lessons on this board. David, Ramsburg thanks for the site I am learning a lot from you guys and I thank you!

basanlas

IIJI falling 33% today to $7.20. Talk about manipulation from insiders ... Japanese investors still don't have their shares at their bank account and already losing some 45%  :o (they bought at $13.07 - I told you they would get burned)

Speculate only if you're a speculator and don't turn speculative ventures into investments. Good luck to all !

David,

David,

     Based on your expert commentary, I bought some puts the morning you sold. They are the July 10 puts, bought at .80, should I be selling them today or do you think there is more downside to come

if you bought at 0.80, they are now about 3.10 so you tripled your money.  always ok to take some profits when they are available.  maybe you can sell half or more and let the rest ride.  it all depends on what you think the stock will do from here.

Thats why I asked David the question. Since the stock started at $ 4.00 before all of this hype, I have a feeling it may trade close to the $ 4.0-5.0 level. If that is the case, I would hold. Would like to hear what David has to say

Take your profits and forget about options or warrants. Never touch them again is my advice.

Good afternoon, I'm not really at office, just passing by ... I'll be updating all my holdings after the close.

Quote from: anthony420 on June 17, 2005, 02:26:16 PM
Thats why I asked David the question. Since the stock started at $ 4.00 before all of this hype, I have a feeling it may trade close to the $ 4.0-5.0 level. If that is the case, I would hold. Would like to hear what David has to say

Remember the earning reports released around the same time the IPO was announced.  Fundamentals are stronger then before, we will not see under 5, IMO.  6s, maybe.  But I would sell them ASAP.

David,

What do you think of IIJI now?  It is technically interested to jump in again to me.
It has been oversold already.  The %K has crossed over the %D already.  Volume went up.
Is is going to test the resistance of the 8.44.  MACD was also up.  Any comments from others are most welcome.

I wouldn't touch it from the long side, at least. Management has deceived investors, this white candle is a «three line strike», a bearish continuation pattern. I believe IIJI will be $2.50 in a few months time.

U take care  :)

Thanks David for your advice.
I will be more cautious on this ticker.

Bought in pre-market. 

On the move.

Quote from: fill_the_gap on July 08, 2005, 09:23:36 AM
Bought in pre-market. 

On the move.

fill the gap,

Nice one...IIJI was up 25.83% yesterday.  Applause.  Even if this is a bear flag rally, it looks like it wants to "fill the gap"  :D at 10.08. (See chart below...sorry, you have to use the horizontal scroll bar at the bottom of the chart to see current activity).

You're getting alot of help from the huge naked short interest in the stock, and from an article in Motley Fool that picked IIJI as one their four stocks that they thought might double again (the other 3 are GPIC, ISRG and SIRI).

Here's a quote from The Street.Com regarding the short interest, if you're interested :  :D

"What's more, the stock has been the victim of so-called naked short-selling, or selling short shares that aren't borrowed in time to deliver them for settlement. IIJ shares have been on Nasdaq's Threshold List since June 9. Stocks appear on an exchange's threshold list when a short-seller fails to deliver shares to the buyer within the standard settlement period for five straight trading days.

The Securities and Exchange Commission's Regulation SHO, which took effect last January in an effort to combat naked short-selling, requires broker dealers to buy out failure-to-deliver positions in stocks that have been on a threshold list for 13 straight trading days. IIJ shares have been on the Nasdaq list for 17 straight days.

Tom Ronk, who keeps a list of threshold stocks on his Web site, Buyins.net, says a stock will often pop up around the time broker-dealers are required to close out failure-to-deliver positions. Sure enough, on June 27 -- IIJ's 13th day on the threshold list -- the stock shot up 23% and volume rose nearly sevenfold to 10.2 million shares.

In the case of IIJ, it is evident that the stock's own volatility created the naked short position in the first place," says Ronk. "The fact that IIJ is an ADS could make the shares even more difficult to locate since U.S. brokerage firms may have to go overseas to request to borrow shares against short positions on their own books." So, why is IIJ still on the list despite what appears to be an attempt to close out the position? Stocks routinely stay on the threshold list for five days after delivery failures have been cleared out. Also, new delivery failures may have appeared in the meantime. Or, it could be that the exchanges are lax in forcing broker-dealers to actually close out the positions. Ronk notes that out of 299 companies on threshold lists, nearly half have been on those lists for more than 13 days. Short-selling, of course, isn't illegal. And as the SEC points out in its Reg SHO explainer, naked short-selling isn't necessarily illegal either. Market makers, with the SEC's blessing, often sell shares of illiquid stocks without borrowing them, if they see a sudden surge in buying demand. What is illegal, the SEC makes clear, is abusive shorting. "Short sales effected to manipulate the price of a stock are prohibited," the SEC says on its Reg SHO page. "It is prohibited for any person to engage in a series of transactions in order to create actual or apparent active trading in a security or to depress the price of a security for the purpose of inducing the purchase or sale of the security by others." So, what happened with IIJ? Its delivery failures started in late May, after the company said it moved from a loss to a profit in its fiscal 2005 and further announced plans to list its shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. IIJ's stock had rallied from $3.08 to $4.50 in the three weeks prior to that announcement, but afterward it surged further, topping out at $13.90 on June 13. So IIJ, a fairly illiquid ADS, experienced the kind of sudden demand that could force its market makers into legitimate naked short-selling. But there's still something that smells fishy about the stock's trading throughout June, and it's just the kind of smell that gets regulatory watchdogs sniffing around. Reg SHO doesn't require any disclosure of the number of shares that went undelivered, or who the seller was. Whether and when IIJ's stock falls off the threshold list, however, should go some way toward showing why they weren't delivered. If it was merely market makers who were forced to sell IIJ shares to meet demand, the stock will disappear from the list shortly. If not, it's a pretty good sign that whoever didn't like IIJ last month hasn't learned to love it in the meantime."    



   

IIJI is trading up $0.67 at 10.12 in pre-market, right at that 10.08-10.12 area in the chart above.  More "naked shorts," covering  ;)

This one is very active today. Is it a delayed reaction to PRs

jorgegr