TZOO - its not a perfect saucer bottom, more like a frying pan bottom but it needs to be watched. That trendline has a very good chance of being gapped right through with all the shorts in there. I think there is very strong support around $30 as some shares were priced there in some offering. I say $50 at least short term if we have a nice volume bar.
I'd taken TZOO off my watch lists I kinda consigned it to 2004 history, thanks for highlighting it, nice base formed for sure. I have some reservations that the stock has had its day (well Year really) but I also like gap plays so will watch.
yea TZOO taught everyone what short squeezing can do...I think it will be fun to watch at least. Here's the long chart so everyone can see what we're talking about...wow.
entering tomorrow...may be stopped out but worth it, imho
watch the TZOO, stop now at low of day
please look at the time I brought up the alert today and its movement (intraday) afterward...come on thats amazing! TZOO will launch up in the coming days. My stop is the low of today.
Man, I love this place. I'm in at 36.00, let's roll.
Nice breakout ;)
Thanks for the pick EliteG,
You're the man !
(applaud)
You guys got some support from KAMADA
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/050614/12668.html
TZOO yesterday crossed a descending trendline and the 50 day moving average. Both those resistance lines were putting a cap on TZOO since $110 was reached back in January 2005 (not so long ago):
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=952;image)
This should produce a meaningful rebound in these shares. I'm buying the open.
Everyday I will analyze TZOO after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.
Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 118% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php). We have great traders in our community which take advantage of short term opportunities in stocks.
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My friend, you are on the money. The 50 day MACD chart has been creeping back up since May 2nd. I too will be in action at the open. Thanks David.
so nice gap up huh and a 3stocksonfire pick! woohoo lets rock! 8)
Bought TZOO @$37
Question: Should there be any worry about the 40% short position this stock has? I know we live and die by the charts, but do existing short position be considered?
Short position of 40% is a good thing for the run actually, they have to cover in 1.5 days.
RICHL74 - a huge short position is absolutely one of the biggest positives n TZOO. This can create a short squeeze. This is where shorts are forced to cover their margin calls. They panic and the stock jumps higher. It has happened many times in TZOO. Look at its rise in 2004. And the huge short position is one of the reasons I chose it. Check it out:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=314.0
Quote from: eliteG on June 15, 2005, 10:54:04 AM
RICHL74 - a huge short position is absolutely one of the biggest positives n TZOO. This can create a short squeeze. This is where shorts are forced to cover their margin calls. They panic and the stock jumps higher. It has happened many times in TZOO. Look at its rise in 2004. And the huge short position is one of the reasons I chose it. Check it out:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=314.0
Quote from: toros on June 15, 2005, 10:53:55 AM
Short position of 40% is a good thing for the run actually, they have to cover in 1.5 days.
Thanks guys. I appreciate the sharing of your knowledge.
Wow...what happened? That was a fast drop! :o
this is a very volatile stock..but it has not violated its breakout line...check charts above. I believe it will have its large pop tomorrow with this new batch of shorters in. Still 1/2 hour to close lets see.
I definitely agree with you eliteG...
It poped 3 dollars yesterday in the last 30 min..
The candlestick pattern isn't bearish on TZOO, although the stock couldn't keep its momentum. Volume was great yesterday, the technical breakout is still in place, no new technical information so I'll keep the stock.
Volume is so weak on TZOO that I dare to say who are the poor souls that are selling this pullback. It's obvious to me that TZOO will shot up higher at any moment. These two corrective days haven't made almost any technical damage to the breakout that TZOO had 3 days ago.
I shouldn't be so convinced about this stock since it is below my entry price (and when we're losing we should get more and more suspicious about the accuracy of our analysis), but what can I do, I love the chart !
seems to be trickling down heavily unable to find a stable support level due to dangerously low volume and general lack of interest. im thinking the breakout momentum has fizzled out? does anyone have an opinion of where this will be mon-tuesday?
Hi Madeinchina,
All my favorite long-term indicators suggest TZOO is ready for a little upside movement. Shorts positions appear to be drying up and a positive earnings report is expected to be released in only a month from now. I'm down about 4 percent now and hope we find support soon. Nevertheless, unless something drastic happens, I'm holding till earnings.
Good luck,
ST2
TZOO had a double breakout last Tuesday. That breakout was made with a 15% rise in just one day. We never know if the stock will zoom higher after a breakout or if it will pullback. I never wait for pullbacks, I always buy after a breakout, because I don't want to lose the move waiting for a pullback ...
But, many times pullbacks do indeed happen. What to do then?
Analyze the "quality" of the pullback, in terms of dimension and volume. Let's see the case of TZOO. The pullback almost didn't penetrate the breakout's white day - this is bullish behavior, the more the white candle is penetrated the less short term bullish is the stock. And what about volume, is it weak, or is it strong? It is weak, which suggests profit taking, a pause in fighting. That is, bears are not fighting here, what's happening is just that bulls are resting. You want to see small and low relative volume pullbacks if you're a bull in a stock as I am in TZOO.
BUYINS.NET: TZOO, STM, EENC have been on BUYINS.NET naked short list for 13 consecutive trading days
Jun 16, 2005 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- BUYINS.NET, www.buyins.net, announced today that these select companies have been on the NASDAQ, AMEX and NYSE naked short threshold lists for 13 consecutive trading days: Travelzoo, Inc. (TZOO), STMicroelectronics (STM) and Enterra Energy Trust (EENC). For a complete list of companies on the naked short lists please visit our web site.
Regulation SHO took effect January 3, 2005, and provides a new regulatory framework governing short selling of securities. It was designed with the objective of simplifying and modernizing short sale regulation and providing controls where they are most needed. At the conclusion of each settlement day, data is provided on securities in which: 1) there are at least 10,000 shares in aggregate failed deliveries for the security for five consecutive settlement days, and 2) these failures constitute at least 0.5% of the issuer's total shares outstanding. Regulation SHO mandates that, if a clearing agent has had a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, that clearing agent, and the broker/dealer it clears for, must purchase securities to close out its fail to deliver position.
Travelzoo, Inc. (TZOO) operates as an Internet media company that publishes travel offers from various travel companies. The company's publications include the Travelzoo Web site, the Travelzoo Top 20 email newsletter, and the Newsflash email product. It also operates SuperSearch, a pay-per-click travel search engine. The company's products provide advertising opportunities for airlines, hotels, cruise lines, vacation packagers, and other travel companies. These products also provide Internet users with a free source of information on current sales and specials from travel companies. Travelzoo is headquartered New York City. With 3.5 million shares in its float and 1.4 million shares declared short as of May 10th, the failure to deliver in shares of TZOO has not been resolved and a buy-in is imminent.
https://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/ameritrade2/html-story-comtex-priv.asp?guid={6AF28BC2-A7FC-46F3-BE6A-52E310CB7D21}&symb=TZOO&sid=1223425
David and co. any comment on this ?
Thanks !
Travel season just starting I am sure this one will bode well for TZOO. Dont have a position in this stock.
i have a small position in it , but looking at the fundamentals , it looks a bit overpriced :
Market Cap (intraday): 574.93M
Enterprise Value (20-Jun-05)³: 535.18M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 92.14
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-06)¹: 41.62
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 2.77
Price/Sales (ttm): 15.25
Price/Book (mrq): 13.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³: 13.92
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)³: 41.486
just a little comment from a newbie :)
look! it just shot up $1.50 in no time! :o
hope it will reach my bought price at 37.60 soon!
cheers , good trading!
After a double breakout I expect TZOO to reach my target at $45 which is the closing of a gap, so I'll hold TZOO.
TZOO has those rallies during the session because the short interest in this stock is huge, 40% of the float (http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=tzoo&submit=Enter) :o
I guess those shorts will have to cover way up until $45. It's a natural thing to be short TZOO, because it went up so much in 2004. It is a natural thing for shorts to have a difficult life in the market, even when they're right.
So I'm keeping TZOO.
TZOO has been trading on a tight range, between $35 and $38.6. An exit from this range will give further indication to price direction. Since we've had a bullish breakout a few days ago and there's an enormous short interest I continue to believe that after this consolidation phase TZOO will trend higher and reach $45.
TZOOdidn't hold up in the face of an expected downturn in the general market that probably just began. There's reason to believe the decline in this stock will continue for the short term, at least.
TZOO was trading in a tight range between $35 and $38. It got out of this channel in a bearish way. I have to sell the stock at tomorrow's open, taking a small loss.
TZOO sold @$34.05
I know David sold this morning, but I'm wondering if you guys are still in and what your thoughts are regarding this stock. I realize David's trading style is different and his entry point was higher so I understand his reason for selling. Do you think this is a major shakeout before another move up? TIA
I understand TZOO is being added to the Russell microcap index at the close today. How would something like that impact the pps? Would that explain the pullback on the low volume this week? Institutions getting in at a lower price?
Austin, where do u see that listing news?
thanks
This is the link. Hope I am interpreting this correctly. But TZOO is on the list.
http://www.russell.com/US/Indexes/US/Reconstitution/microcap_adds.asp
may be forming a cup 2handle...lets see if this pans out
its extremely dissapointing that it did not run.
i got stopped out, taking a 11% loss.
but it ended a day with a rally tho, dont know what it will bring next week.
The close is still within the flag pattern. I'm thinking this is a major shakedown only becasue the volume has been about 1/2 avg. on these down days.
Quote from: eliteG on June 24, 2005, 04:04:36 PM
may be forming a cup 2handle...lets see if this pans out
its extremely dissapointing that it did not run.
Yeah, but it wasn't all bad.
I like the fact that TZOO put in a bullish-looking doji star hammer on Friday (needs upside confirmation), and the fact that TZOO appears to have validated the trendline connecting the lows of May 11 and June 14 by banging off it, and rallying to close near unchanged. It penetrated that trendline slightly to the downside, but I would allow for that since the stock had a very strong close, and especially since TZOO trades like an animal let out of the zoo (it dropped $1.50+ in only 5 minutes late Thursday afternoon).
After you connect the recent lows described above, draw a parallel line connecting the recent tops, May 12 and May 24, then extend it on out. It could be that we're only trading within a bear flag: higher highs and higher lows, that eventually gets broken to the downside. If we break below Friday's bullish-looking doji star hammer low of 32.60, that very well could be what we're looking at.
If we print above Friday's high of 34.60, I'd view that as a big plus. It would suggest that, even if we're trading within a bear flag, we're probably going to rally toward the top of flag, currently slightly above $40.00.
MACD looks good. It's above zero, its above its signal line, and its headed back toward the signal line. If it bangs higher from above or near the signal line, that's usually a good sign that the stock is going higher.
I don't have a position in TZOO, but I'm probably going to buy it on Monday if we get a print of 34.61, a tick above Friday's high. That's called a buy pivot. I won't buy a big gap up, though,.
My stop if I buy: a CLOSE below Friday's low of 32.40, which appears to have been a trendline validation. If we close below that, it clearly wasn't a trendline validation, and I want out of the stock, because that's why I'm buying. My plan will have gone wrong. Sell.
Risk on the trade: roughly 5.5%. (2 point loss, divided by the 34.61 entry...could be a little higher or lower). This is not a recommendation to buy TZOO. Do your own due diligence and take responsiblity for own decisions. Good luck to everyone who has a position in TZOO.
I like the analysis Melf Elf ;) (applauded)
I think we dont want to forget that time is money, though, too. There are better patterns out there...
hmmmm.. Travelzoo is worth $35 a share nowadays??..
As I recall, when Travelzoo first debuted in 1998 or so they gave out free shares for people to visit their website.. I think it was 3 shares per per person or something.. and ofcourse I registered for the free Travelzoo shares being a college kid at the time.. so my shares are worth $100+ now if I kept up with those free shares? lol.. I find that amazing- (although I don't recall ever getting those shares)
Another pick from the elite one!
Don't be disappointed eliteg.I also like the analysis of Melf Elf.
I'm not in this stock.I tend to believe it still has the chance of making the RUN.
The bullish looking doji star that Melf Elf pointed out just may be the sign of things to come.
I just may jump into this come tomorrow myself.Rock and roll day may be here
Quote from: eliteG on June 25, 2005, 02:25:26 PM
I think we dont want to forget that time is money, though, too. There are better patterns out there...
Good point, eliteG. I just was looking at the NASDAQ Composite chart. After that beautiful gap up breakout out of the January 3, 2005 down channel on May 18, we rallied about 100 points. The entire month of June, however, is looking like an "M"-top. On Thursday and Friday, we printed a new high for the move at 2106, then we gave back ALL of the June gains. That's sure looking like at least a short-term reversal.
If we break below this 2050-2053 area (the close was 2053), that would measure back to roughly 2000. The May 17-18 gap is 2004-2007, so that gap would get filled.
If we do that, the good news could be that we'd be putting in the right shoulder of an Inverse H&S. Neckline: February15...June 22 highs in the 2100 area. Left shoulder: January 24 low.
If we take out 2050 here, I'm in "go slow" mode, as far as taking any long positions. The chart would have to look really, really good. :)
If the market goes lower and it looks that way ,this will sink also...use tight stops,....just my opinion,,
I sold .....cut the loss.... :-\
Make it up on another................ ;D
The Thursday and Friday reversal in the NASDAQ kept me from playing anything today, Setravis, but what a dirty deal in TZOO today! They took it up above Friday's doji star hammer high of 34.60 to kick in the buy pivot at 34.61 (high was 34.80), then just dropped it like a brick ten minutes ago (down $1.00 in minutes) to knock out the 32.60 stop! >:D
Good effort, and good use of stops (applause). You'll get 'em next time :)
Melf Elf.....You said a mouth full there.
If that's the way they want to be ...I didn't want to hold their stock no way.
It's just a thing!!!! :D
It can be made up.....get out while the gettin is good.... ;)
Quote from: setravis on June 27, 2005, 02:28:54 PM
It can be made up.....get out while the gettin is good.... ;)
Yep, especially since the break of Friday's 32.60 low looks like TZOO just fell to the downside out of the bear flag that we discussed over the weekend.
There's a possiblity that we're going to tag the big down trendline from December, 2004 (and the 50DMA at about 31.50), then rally, but I really don't like this break of the bear flag, which got resolved in the direction of the trend. Bearish.
Bought today at $32 and $32.20. Been waiting a while for this expected retrace. Nasdaq is oversold and should get some value buyers and pull TZOO back up with it, particularly if the 50 day holds. TZOO is still in an uptrend, just a correction in the uptrend.
The time to buy is now.
Bula
Quote from: bula on June 27, 2005, 03:08:05 PM
TZOO is still in an uptrend, just a correction in the uptrend.
Good luck with your trade, Bula.
I have to disagree with you about the trend being bullish. The dominant trend is bearish. TZOO completed a Head and Shoulders top o March 14 (bearish), rallied to the December, 2004 down trendline on April 1, 2005 and failed right there (bearish), then sank to the May, 2005 low.
The short-term trend (six weeks) has been bullish (higher highs and higher lows), but the rally had the shape of a bear flag. When the dominant trend is bearish, expect patterns to have a bearish resolution.
Over the weekend, we discussed the possibility of a rally to the top of the bear flag ($40.00-ish) since the up trendline off the May low held on Friday. The up trendline was broken today on the takeout of Friday's low of 32.60, so the bear flag has resolved to the downside. Bearish.
If we close back inside the flag (today, it would be a close of about 32.85), I'd be short-term neutral, at best. Boy, I don''t like to see validated trendlines and patterns get broken by as much as TZOO broke this one today.
TZOO currently is 32.65 BID...32.75 ASK, so it's got a chance to get back inside the flag at the close, but personally, I wouldn't buy it. As eliteG said, there are too many better charts.
Hope that you don't mind a differing opinion.
Not at all. I love differing opinions.
2 things: the 50 day is still intact, and the MACD is still positive thus TZOO is in an uptrend. To me, the MACD staying positive is more important than your long term trend line. Still it is a not a perfect chart, that is true. But $32 is a good entry price relative to the 50 day. If the 50 day is violated on heavy volume, then i'm with you. So my stop will be set near there.
It's worth the risk here.
Bula
Quote from: bula on June 27, 2005, 03:57:38 PM
It's worth the risk here.
Bula
Good for you, Bula. You've analyzed it. You have a plan. You know what your risk is, and you have a stop to protect yourself. I give you applause.
That's all any of us can do. Some you win. Some you lose. I hope that this is a big winner for you.
Is today's candle for TZOO a reversal? Is this a bullish inverted hammer? Thx
Quote from: AustinPowers on June 28, 2005, 04:27:17 PM
Is today's candle for TZOO a reversal? Is this a bullish inverted hammer? Thx
If the hammer were below the prior day's long black candle, then you'd have inverted hammer/reversal possibilities like we did last Friday, when TZOO put in a doji star hammer (open and close are nearly identical), on the bottom of the bear flag.
Yesterday's candle is an inside day. All of the trading was within the prior day's black candle. TZOO regained the broken bear flag intraday, but the close was below it for the second day.
Beginning with the bearish inverted hangman on June 21 (the three day pattern there looks like a Bearish Evening Star pattern), TZOO has put in its high of the day early each session, then sold off. Friday's bullish-looking doji star hammer appeared to be a change in that behavior when TZOO rallied back to close near unchanged.
The print of 34.61 early Monday morning, a tick above Friday's doji star candle, turned out to be a "bull trap." It was follow-thru to the upside, so a "buy pivot" for the bulls, but the day ended with Friday's entire bullish-looking doji-star candle getting reversed to the downside. Bulls who bought the print of 34.61 are "trapped" up there, so to speak, if they're still long. Ugly day.
1. Friday's doji star candle wasn't bullish
2. The bear flag was broken to the downside, and the close was below it
3. MACD gave a bearish cross of its signal line
Yesterday, like Monday, was a continuation of the recent behavior in TZOO: the high for the day was made in the first fifteen minutes of the session, and it got sold into. If TZOO can close back inside the flag, I'd rate it neutral. Until then, its acting bearish and looking like it's headed down to one or more of these:
1. Its 50DMA at 31.55
2. The June low at 30.80
3. A tag of the December, 2004 down trendline at about 30.70 for today
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120021277500?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:TZOO&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
Had to see the chart.
see what you guys are talking about.
Thx for the analysis guys. I suppose there are better opps. out there right now.
Quote from: AustinPowers on June 29, 2005, 07:40:38 AM
Thx for the analysis guys. I suppose there are better opps. out there right now.
Yeah, I think so. Same bearish behavior in TZOO today. The high of the day, which was at the bottom of the broken bear flag (resistance), was near the open, and it got sold into.
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120021277500?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:TZOO&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
Not to beat a dead horse with you Melf, but we are seeing opposites on this one as you know. Although TZOO has not committed to any breakout yet, every day that goes by with the price staying above 32, the stronger the support seems to build - an more importantly that 50-day held. As such, it'd be hard to not be bullish on a stock that severely corrects for months, gets it's first real bounce, uptrend on the MACD and holds the key 50-day number.
You can also note the increasing base that is forming at the 33 level (highers lows daily). With short interest so high, a close above 35 should start the ball rolling in a big way.
Cheers.
Quote from: bula on July 01, 2005, 10:16:01 AM
Not to beat a dead horse with you Melf, but we are seeing opposites on this one as you know.
No problem, bula. Arguing is useless. Disagreement is healthy. We disagree ;)
TZOO has been banging away at the bottom of the broken bear flag. It makes a high in the morning (probably some of the shorts you mention, covering) then it fades, and has closed below the broken bear flag for the past three days.
It's acting the same way today. It rallied early this morning toward the bottom of the flag , but with the market still having a decent day so far, TZOO has faded from being up $0.37 to down $0.09, currently.
QuoteYou can also note the increasing base that is forming at the 33 level (highers lows daily). With short interest so high, a close above 35 should start the ball rolling in a big way.
Yes, it's also not going down much, so that's a plus. MACD has made a bearish cross of the signal line, and is headed toward zero. If TZOO can rally back into the flag, MACD will turn up from near zero, which would be another plus, and TZOO could head back to the recent high of 38.75, and toward the top of bear flag, now at about 41.16.
The bottom of the rising broken bear flag looks to be about $33.80 for today.
Good luck, bula! Hope you make some nice $$$ :)
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120021277500?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:TZOO&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
Bula,
Hopefully, this chart will do a better job of explaining my take on TZOO. Sorry, but you'll have to use the horizontal scroll bar at the bottom to see the right side of the chart.
I knew the chart would be awesome ;) keep the pizzas coming (applaud)
I have a complaint about this chart .....I do not like to scroll! ;D
Quote from: setravis on July 02, 2005, 03:53:21 PM
I have a complaint about this chart .....I do not like to scroll! ;D
yea >:( who does he think he is? making us scroll .. LOL ;)
Yea....That's what I would like know,who does he think he is? :'(
Hopefully he can get this morphed up situation under control. ::)
But I did notice that he has his nested formations well defined! ;)
This lad seems to be learning. :D
Sorry about the scrolling guys! I agree. ;D
It really is a pain in the butt :(
Earnings:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW YORK, Jun 28, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO, Trade) today announced that its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2005 will be released on Tuesday, July 19, 2005.
-- Earnings Release: Before market opens on Tuesday, July 19 by public distribution and on Travelzoo's investor relations Web site at www.travelzoo.com/ir.
-- Live Conference Call: 11:00 am EDT on Tuesday, July 19 via Web cast, which can be accessed through Travelzoo's investor relations Web site.
-- Conference Call Archive: Following the conference call, an archived Web cast will be available for 90 days on Travelzoo's investor relations Web site.
Does this have legs?? When is earnings??
Anyone have an opinion? This could be a quick monster.
Quote from: Adam on July 21, 2005, 12:31:35 PM
Anyone have an opinion? This could be a quick monster.
Avoid. It's quick, and it's definitely a monster right now. >:D
I'll post a chart in the main file, so we can keep our comments in one thread.
TZOO can't get out of its own way. It's struggling to find support. It tried to find support at its 50DMA, but that failed. Yesterday, it broke out above a short-term down trendline and got to 34.00 by 10:00AM (green arrows), but it couldn't manage to close above it.
Today, it rallied to a high of 33.32 at 9:45AM, back above that green down trendline, but it's now at 31.66, down $0.80. This is the same bearish behavior that TZOO has been exhibiting for awhile. Quick to rally, then sideways to down. That isn't characteristic of a stock that's making a bottom.
On earnings day, it opened on its low of the day and rallied for the rest of the day, but it also broke below June and July horizontal support. It had the look of a reversal day, but lousy follow-thru, at least so far.
It needs to establish support. For now, it just looks to be trading erratically, probably being tossed around by the day traders.
Excellent analysis. Please let me know if the situation changes, I don't want to miss this train. Also, any thoughts on FLIR???
Quote from: Adam on July 22, 2005, 03:26:33 PM
Also, any thoughts on FLIR???
Sorry, I don't follow that one.
With FLIR you may want to take a look at the T/A. I can't seem to gain any interest on this and I have noticed this move quickly in the past. I don't own any yet.
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 22, 2005, 02:44:39 PM
TZOO can't get out of its own way. It's struggling to find support. It tried to find support at its 50DMA, but that failed.
Despite last reported short interest at a huge 46% of the float, TZOO fell to a new low for the year yesterday, closing at 26.62. I used to wonder how that many people could be right about shorting a stock, but then I learned that "in a bear trend, the bears are right."
I'd love to catch a stock breaking out to the
upside with that much short interest. ;D
Quote from: Melf Elf on August 11, 2005, 06:23:08 AM
I'd love to catch a stock breaking out to the upside with that much short interest. ;D
Rarely do I ever have "dumb luck" in the stock market, but that's what I had yesterday.
The downside target for TZOO from the Bear Channel was MADE last week within a few pennies. The next day, a Bullish Engulfing Pattern appeared. Positive divergence in MACD showed up, then a cross above the signal line. Short-term indicators, like RSI, looked very good.
On Wednesday, TZOO looked okay for a rally back to the down trendline near 24.00, which has been stiff resistance. I bought it at 22.00 for a rally to 24.00. Stop below the Pivot Day low of 21.31. Not a great trade, but a 1:3 Risk/Reward and I've been watching for TZOO to make at least a short-term bottom, figuring all of that short interest we've discussed would help to fuel a rally.
Wednesday night, my broker, Scottrade, reconfigured their web site, so I couldn't access the streaming quotes. I spent hours yesterday trying to get the problem straightened out. I should have placed a sell order at 24.00 since I couldn't watch the trades yesterday, but TZOO was only trading in the 21.80s when I check, so I didn't bother placing the order.
As "dumb luck" would have it, when I checked near the close, TZOO was trading in the 25.80s on huge volume!!! ::)
News was a 300% surge in TZOO UK web traffic. That could be one of those "fluff" press releases, but they also got 11 new advertisers, which could add to the bottom line.
As of August, 2005, 50% of the TZOO float was short, but alot of that could have been covered on yesterday's big volume. Here's an article on the short interest and an opinion about the fundamentals:
http://hundredpercenter.blogspot.com/2005/09/travelzoo-art-of-short-sqeeze.html
Near-term resistance is 27.02 (the June low) - 27.20-ish (Declining 50DMA).
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 16, 2005, 06:42:43 AM
Near-term resistance is 27.02 (the June low) - 27.20-ish (Declining 50DMA).
TZOO gapped up to 26.65 at the open. I sold at 27.00, at near-term resistance, and thank my "dumb luck." I really didn't deserve that one. Gain: 22.7.%
Is anybody here traded this Rocket --> TZOO already up 150% since since last week's low at 19.57? :o :o :o
Nope, kept thinking it would run out of gas. I'm considering shorting it now.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on April 24, 2006, 02:48:23 PM
Nope, kept thinking it would run out of gas. I'm considering shorting it now.
My hunch was right - I should have shorted. Would have been an 18% gain already. The 9 ema might be a good long entry point tomorrow ($37.97) if it gets there.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on April 27, 2006, 02:41:28 AM
My hunch was right - I should have shorted. Would have been an 18% gain already. The 9 ema might be a good long entry point tomorrow ($37.97) if it gets there.
Lucas, you were right..I should have take your advice (applaud) ;)
Building a fast base now with a definitive uptrend
The actual float is so small as to make this play a genuine short squeeze in development
TZOO has shown certain charting characteristics that "lend some reliability" to the prognosis for an imminent upside breakout. Targets, by my reckoning, are $55 to $60 & maybe a squeeze to $70, or so...
When she moves there is almost no way to catch this rocket after launch!
A breakdown from here ( about $29 ) to about $25 kills this plan
good trading to all...
willey
Original thread for TZOO ;)
TZOO penetrated the 61.8% fibonacci retracement (daily chart)
But looking on the weekly chart price is hanging @ 61.8% fibonacci retracement level just above 50 sma (WS)... looks good ;)
chart looks great and its ready to boom. im ready to buy some
A minor update!...........Since the markets have followed ( almost precisely ) the pattern for 1998 ( also, another 8yr. presidential cycle applying the "cycle pressures", of course ), we can expect the following to LIKELY occur.....
#1, imminent strengthening in the markets for a "fast rise" in a great many stocks ( to the complete dismay of a great many shorts ) that could approach this year's market highs...
===> Should prove to be relatively short lived ( few weeks ) I believe, much as July 1998 ended up on a sour note ( which got much-much worse in Aug.-Sept. of that year )
good trading to all...
willey
???
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=314.from1151205120#new
There you go, another TZOO thread >:(
Hi,
<<There you go, another TZOO thread>>
Didn't know there was a "first one"
willey
TZOO
In my opinion, its likely to achieve $70 or so, not too long from now!
Probably one of the very best stocks to own for this comin' ride!
good trading to all
willey
TZOO...
all looks good to go for this rocket...$70 is my plan!
NTRI...she just broke out for a double top!...I bought during the recent drop to do the classic "GAP FILL" at around $52.5 a share ( I did NOT get that exact value, 'cause I'm an old timer & a bit slow, but did load up at $54 ). My target is an easy $100 to $150 a share, given a likelyhood for all the fat souls buyin' into their stuff!
good trading to all...
willey
Bought TZOO at 33.40 on the re-test of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout. The low, prior to the breakout, was 31.51. the 50DMA is just above 31.00, so I'll use the 30.90s as my stop. Risk: a loss of about 7%.
46.06 is IN PLAY from the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.
Nice catch Melf! ;) Applaud!! Looks like a good play. Although I would like to catch the ride with you, I'm out of funds for the moment. I bought back in DIVX yesterday! >:D
I wish you the best of luck!
Thai
Thanks, Thai!
The top of the pattern didn't hold. TZOO just filled the 32.40 gap from October 23. The low just now is 32.41. Be nice if that would hold here, or close to it.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 26, 2006, 11:04:13 AM
Thanks, Thai!
The top of the pattern didn't hold. TZOO just filled the 32.40 gap from October 23. The low just now is 32.41. Be nice if that would hold here, or close to it.
I'll hope with you because I just bought at 32.50! :)
In also at 33.25 on the reversal, lets all make some money! :D
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 26, 2006, 10:25:45 AM
Bought TZOO at 33.40 on the re-test of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout. The low, prior to the breakout, was 31.51. the 50DMA is just above 31.00, so I'll use the 30.90s as my stop. Risk: a loss of about 7%.
Stopped out at 30.95. Loss: 7.3%
Thai, Se7en and Tok,
My stops recently, on trades like ARNA, KOMG and ASTM, have been just a hair too tight, and all of them went much higher. I decided to give TZOO a little room: FOUR levels of support:
1. The top of the Ascending Triangle, which was my entry
2. The 32.40 gap
3. 31.51, the "last low," prior to the breakout
4. 31.10, the 50DMA
I wanted to sell Friday's failed re-test of the top of pattern, but decided to follow the plan, and give it some room.
BUSTED. >:D >:D >:D
"Damned for using a tight stop...Damned for
not using a tight stop." :D
Good luck, guys, if you're still in it. Next support levels are the bottom of the pattern (about 28.40) and the 200DMA (27.60).
I fully expect a HUGE rally, since I stopped it out. :D >:D
I'm planning to sell at the market open if that huge rally won't start! ;)
Maybe that article on the Motley Fool yesterday afternoon caused the little sell off ...
Danger zone?
Rising prices and falling returns are a dangerous combination I usually try to avoid. That's not a sustainable combination over the long term, if we believe that the market is a weighing machine.
Two interesting examples are Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and TravelZoo (Nasdaq: TZOO). Believe it or not, their returns on invested capital have been declining for some time (see the table below for ROIC by fiscal year).
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
Google
160.6%
56.8%
45.8%
38.9%
TravelZoo
206%
480.8%
84.3%
39.5%
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06103016.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y&bounce=y&bounce2=y
Sold my TZOO for a 2,5% loss, let's move on! ;)
It was upgraded today by Stifel Nicolaus (sell to hold) and by
First Albany (underperform to Strong buy).
Although shorts squeezing is always a problem on this stock
pls look at the following chart which seems very attractive
with a golden cross 3ML in process BO on Gpoint.
Do you guys agree??
I'm in @33. Hope I'm right. >:D
"TZOO" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;D
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock. :(
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$ ;)
52wk Range: 19.53 - 52.99
Volume: 157,089
Avg Vol (3m): 357,419
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
0.58%above 13-day MA
5.30%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 83
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Apr 17
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $419.08
P/E Ratio: 39.61
PEG Ratio: 1.465
Next Earnings: 04/17/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Strong Buy
Here is today's chart.......
TZOO came up on my Metastock technical filter and I was positively surprised by its fundamentals, especially the way the company's management has been buying back shares, therefore reducing the # of shares outstanding. I also appreciate the continuous net profit margin expansion.
Here's the video analysis I made for TZOO:
The valuation model shows the following picture:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35763;image)
TZOO isn't an explosive pick, but I'm expecting it to return 41.5% a year going forward if I buy it today. And that's my plan.
Trading plan:
Buy TZOO, 6.66% of capital as always.
TZOO will release Q1 results next Tuesday:
• Travelzoo Q1 2007 Earnings Conference Call Tuesday, April 24, 2007 at 5:00 PM ET (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070413/20070413005084.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri, Apr 13)
And I love the following news:
• Travelzoo Opens Office in Hong Kong (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070418/20070418006338.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Wed 6:38pm)
Global expansion is precisely what TZOO needs to keeps those revenues growing at a torrid pace. Now, maybe I'll have to increase my revenue CAGR estimate and lower my net profit margin estimate, according to what I can read on this Hong Kong press release. But I'll wait for the Q1 results next Tuesday.
I'll continue holding TZOO.
Unfortunately TZOO couldn't breakout above the $40.1 resistance level and it went down 4.43% today. Why do I always start losing? I don't know, maybe because of my technical filter that captures stocks that are bullish, and by being bullish they can be short term overbought.
Anyway, I'm not going to change the way I buy stocks, because, overall, the Main Portfolio is up 19.1% in 2007, and this main mean it will end the year at about 40% plus which would be a great year by all means.
My valuation model says TZOO will be worth a lot more than current price (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TZOO&portfolio=main). I'll keep holding TZOO as the stock approaches ascending technical support.
Could it be this stock is temporarily under $40 due to options expirations, which is today? I own ebay and Cramer thought it was being held under $35 till after the April 35's expire. Just my two cents.
Quote from: soxguy on April 20, 2007, 08:43:37 AM
Could it be this stock is temporarily under $40 due to options expirations, which is today? I own ebay and Cramer thought it was being held under $35 till after the April 35's expire. Just my two cents.
I don't see a fundamental reason for TZOO to be down, so it can be related to options expiration. If that's the case the stock will rebound strongly next week.
Thanks soxguy :)
No Biggie!
Downgrade
Travelzoo TZOO First Albany Strong Buy » Buy
uc.
In at 36.84. As always we shall see. Earnings will move this big time,hopefully in the right direction.
Downgrade the surest way to keep this down today until after options expire. Sometimes it just makes one wonder.
We still need to wait for TZOO's 1Q results to get a better picture of the short term evolution of net profit margin, but perhaps investors are reacting negatively to what the company said on its latest press release:
• Travelzoo Opens Office in Hong Kong (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070418/20070418006338.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Wed, Apr 18)
"The opening of an office in Hong Kong kicks off the launch of our new Asia Pacific business segment. We plan to invest significantly in the Asia Pacific region. While we expect our launch in the Asia Pacific region and our continued expansion in Europe to have a negative impact on our operating margins in the near term, we also see a lot of upside potential in building a global media brand," said Travelzoo Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ralph Bartel.
Net profit margin was 24.3% in Q4 2006 (and 23.2% for the full year), and on my valuation model I expect 30% net profit margin in 2009. Perhaps these investments in Europe and Asia will lower net profit margin to 20% or so over the short term, but I believe I shouldn't change my long term view of the company since the company is investing to deliver growth and more long term profitability for shareholders.,
My valuation model says TZOO will be a $112.69 stock in 2009 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TZOO&portfolio=main), delivering 44.74% share price compound annual growth rate, so I'll keep holding TZOO. Technically the stock is trading around medium term support now.
I just thought I would mention this before earnings come out tomorrow....
MoooHaaaHaaa!
Have any of you looked at the TZOO chart just "after" the 1st Quarter 2006 Earnings had been released???
David, have you seen it?
I think you will find it very interesting.
And while you are at it, check out what happened "after" the 1st Quarter 2004 Earnings.
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=tzoo;range=2y;indicator=split+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined
Tzoo almost tripled after the 1st quarter last year.
I know the past doesn't always predict the future, but TZOO could be full of earnings growth surprises tomorrow :)
Does anyone have "recent" short interest on TZOO?
I think Yahoo is incorrect.
I see why this stock gets propelled :)
We'll have to wait and see!
Wxmang
QuoteHave any of you looked at the TZOO chart just "after" the 1st Quarter 2006 Earnings had been released???
David, have you seen it?
I think you will find it very interesting.
And while you are at it, check out what happened "after" the 1st Quarter 2004 Earnings.
Yes, I've seen it, TZOO had huge reactions to earnings in the past:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36060;image)
It doesn't mean it will happen now, it depends on the news.
Q1 2007 earnings will be out today after the close:
• Travelzoo Q1 2007 Earnings Conference Call Tuesday, April 24, 2007 at 5:00 PM ET (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070413/20070413005084.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri, Apr 13)
Let's check analyst's expectations for this quarter:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36061;image)
32 cents EPS on $20.39 M revenue estimate. This means a 20.44% revenue growth from Q1 2006 levels (revenue was $16.93 M back then). My long term estimates call for revenue growth of 30%:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36062;image)
I believe analysts are too pessimistic on their forecasts and the company will beat estimates. We'll know about that today, but one quarter doesn't make a full year.
QuoteDoes anyone have "recent" short interest on TZOO?
I think Yahoo is incorrect.
My fundamental data service says there are 2,204,364 shares short as of 2007/03/12 and that the free float is 7,525,550, so 29.3% of the free float is sold short.
I believe in TZOO's business and its long term prospects, I'll hold TZOO through today's earnings release.
This stock is acting just like syx before that one reported earnings and went from $13 to $30. Let's hope for similar results.
Earnings are out. They were below expectations:
• Travelzoo Reports First Quarter 2007 Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070424/20070424006405.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue 4:30pm)
I'll listen to the conference call and will adapt my valuation model to this information when I make TZOO's update later in the day or tomorrow before the open.
That really sucks :(
Oh well....
Thank God we only own 6.6% :)
Nuts.
Well, I think you can all thank me for this. I decided to sell my GIGM and in turn pickup TZOO. This always happens... ::)
down 17% AH! :o
TZOO's investments in Europe and Asia are hurting the business profitability over the short term and still not contributing for growth, because they're incipient. This seems like one of those cases where the sell off is a buying opportunity, since it is caused by a short term negative effect of a sound long term business strategy.
My share price CAGR estimate was perhaps too low, or my estimates were too stretched, and maybe this can explain the loss. My wife was suggesting here that I should have not only an "optimal selling price" but also an "optimal entry price", but I'm not sure how can I do that without considering short term information that can sometimes be contradictory with the long term fundamental analysis.
Quote from: dnickers on April 24, 2007, 05:05:30 PM
Well, I think you can all thank me for this. I decided to sell my GIGM and in turn pickup TZOO. This always happens... ::)
That was really bad luck dnickers, why did you exchange a stock with such a comfortable expected rate of return like GIGM, one of our top 3 holdings in terms of its quality, for TZOO? Anyway, don't worry too much about short term setbacks, they're inevitable and you need to be psychologically prepared for them, losses are part of a winning long term strategy.
Over the intraday I felt something like this could happen, but I know feelings won't take me anywhere over the long run. If TZOO goes down 20% tomorrow that will mean a 1.2% or so loss for the Main Portfolio, which is bad, but not dramatic.
I'll do my update later, just making a few quick remarks on the situation. The stock will probably open around the red medium term support line on the chart below:
"If TZOO goes down 20% tomorrow that will mean a 1.2% or so loss for the Main Portfolio, which is bad, but not dramatic."
This is the kind of discipline we tend to forget :)
David is totally right.... only 1.2% or so loss..
Not a big deal.
As a matter of fact, I have a very low Limit Buy Order for more TZOO tomorrow morning.
This purchase amount would be what I intend to lose Intraday tomorrow.
I think it is smart, because this looks like a monster over-reaction.
TZOO missed the number but they are a profitable company trying to grow.
However, I will look forward to David's updated model run on TZOO.
And who knows, SILC might counter the loss tomorrow after earnings..
Something to think about :)
Wxmang
I would love to buy more in the morning and wait for a recovery,but not if it's going to $20 first.
[/quote]
My share price CAGR estimate was perhaps too low, or my estimates were too stretched, and maybe this can explain the loss. My wife was suggesting here that I should have not only an "optimal selling price" but also an "optimal entry price", but I'm not sure how can I do that without considering short term information that can sometimes be contradictory with the long term fundamental analysis.
[/quote]
I don't agree with your selling price they are miss-leading. With these type of stock you can't trust future earnings to much. I would just look at past earnings and the next few quarter out and come up with a selling price. To many things can happen, to many setbacks.
on SILC I would have set a optimal selling price of around $30.00 not $131.00
GIGM $24.00 not $57 on a stock like TZOO I didn't buy it, I only came up with a value of $24 - $30 before earning came out some it was overvalued.
NTES $24 and etc....
yukii, depends on what ur time horizon is..
GIGM & SILC are both buy&holds for now.
I see GIGM earning close to 0.90 this year. Depends what multiple you want to give a co growing 40-50% a year.. but even with a conservative PE of 30, we're looking at 27 by end of 07 on trailing earnings.
Im long GIGM since 6..and there are a lot of intangibles that are not factored in..the management team for instance..wang&hui really know how to deliver.
The US ban really put a speed breaker on its share price momentum last year..but its put it behind and is up over 50% since then.
I agree with David..barring some major regulatory impact in Eu / China..GIGM will continue to reap rewards for the patient holder.
My share price CAGR estimate was perhaps too low, or my estimates were too stretched, and maybe this can explain the loss. My wife was suggesting here that I should have not only an "optimal selling price" but also an "optimal entry price", but I'm not sure how can I do that without considering short term information that can sometimes be contradictory with the long term fundamental analysis.
[/quote]
Not sure if you would have to do that or as you say, how you even could do it. But it might be a better idea just not to buy too close to earnings in order to give your ideas time to bear fruit (making any drop on earnings sting less) and allow more time for any more negative information to be uncovered.
Just heard Travelzoo's Q1 2007 results conference call.
Revenue growth in North America was just 13%, but in Europe it was 128%. I believe that over time Europe can be an even bigger market than North America, simply because citizens of the European Union are 500 million compared to 330 million in North America.
Revenues from North America were $18.5 M and just $1.3 M from Europe, so you can see Europe's growth potential. The company also recently expanded to Asia as it opened an office in Hong Kong.
EPS was $0.25 in Q1 2007, up just 1 cent from Q1 2006. But this is because Europe is still incipient and losing money (it had an operating loss of $683,000). In the not so distant future (say, 3 years from now), I don't see why Europe shouldn't be as profitable as the company's North America operations. Also, net income was hurt by an higher effective tax rate, because losses in Europe don't offset profits in the US. When the European unit gets profitable it will enjoy a lot of tax loss carry forwards, that will leave the company exempt for some years to come, increasing profitability over the medium term.
I enjoy the company's growth initiatives a lot, expanding from four basic sectors: flights, hotels, cruises and car rentals to show and events tickets. They're also starting to differentiate advertiser's revenue with video add ons.
Overall I see no reason to change my long term estimates due to this weak quarter, since this seems to be a necessary short term pain that will lead to more long term growth and success.
Of course, I should have waited to buy after the bad news, since it was more or less obvious this quarter was going to be bad, due to the company's big investments in Europe and Asia. I have to be more careful in the future on the timing of entry, not because of technical reasons, but due to short term fundamental possibilities, like Tokyopua rightly said.
As I see it today's open will only make the stock more attractive on a long term investor's perspective, because long term fundamentals didn't deteriorate:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36135;image)
I still see 30% compound annual revenue growth between now and 2009 (mostly due to Europe and Asia growth) and a 30% net profit margin.
Technically TZOO has been trading in a wide range, between $25.5 and $40. The medium term support line (red on the chart) will stand at $30.41 today.
I'll keep holding TZOO despite today's horrible setback.
I'm no expert on Europe but I've always heard that Europeans typically get more vacation time than Americans. Seems also that European stocks are doing well (collectively) based on the the last few years. Would seem to be an excellent market for travel-related business?
Perhaps folks will have a bit more spending money than in the past, feel wealthier, and decide to use TZOO.
BTW, it seems really strange to see TZOO tank (and me not dump it) and it only effect my portfolio by a couple %. I somehow feel liberated !!!
Kent
Todays drop gave me a chance to get in @ 28.1699
I'm a little slow, but sometimes that is lucky!
Quote from: cumulina on April 25, 2007, 01:34:13 PM
Todays drop gave me a chance to get in @ 28.1699
I'm a little slow, but sometimes that is lucky!
I would wait till it gets lower to buy $25.00
Here is a fool article with an optimistic look at the future of TZOO
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/04/25/the-world-is-flat-at-travelzoo.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/04/25/the-world-is-flat-at-travelzoo.aspx)
Quote from: JKN on April 25, 2007, 10:13:44 AM
I'm no expert on Europe but I've always heard that Europeans typically get more vacation time than Americans. Seems also that European stocks are doing well (collectively) based on the the last few years. Would seem to be an excellent market for travel-related business?
Perhaps folks will have a bit more spending money than in the past, feel wealthier, and decide to use TZOO.
BTW, it seems really strange to see TZOO tank (and me not dump it) and it only effect my portfolio by a couple %. I somehow feel liberated !!!
Kent
I agree Kent, people in Europe love to travel and have the time and money to do it. TZOO shall have a warm welcome here.
Quote from: Kublakhan on April 25, 2007, 03:23:40 PM
Here is a fool article with an optimistic look at the future of TZOO
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/04/25/the-world-is-flat-at-travelzoo.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/04/25/the-world-is-flat-at-travelzoo.aspx)
I agree with the Fool's article.
TZOO had a very, very ugly technical breakdown yesterday. But there are more supports around the current area, I don't think prices below $25 are a possibility, the stock would be too cheap at those levels. So, people selling nos are selling approximately at the lows for the foreseeable future, because things can only get better in Europe and Asia. Even for tax reasons, EPS will probably grow from the current $0.25 a quarter.
TZOO's clients, like online travel bookings companies Priceline, Orbitz and Expedia are doing very well. Hotels are also doing well. Car rental companies too. I don't see why they would cut on advertising spending at TZOO.
I have a 28% loss in TZOO, but I'm going to keep my long term estimates and I still see the stock at $112.69 in 2009 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TZOO&portfolio=main), so I'll keep on holding the stock throughout this short term storm.
TZOO is on this websites list.
http://buyonpanic.com/
elzoo Inc. (NASDAQ TZOO)
Last Trade: 28.16
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 8.72 (23.64%)
Travelzoo (NASDAQ TZOO) reported disappointing results on Wednesday. TZOO earned $4.1 million (25 cents a share) on revenue of $19.7 million. Analyst forecasts called for earnings of 32 cents a share on revenue of $20.4 million. In the year-earlier quarter, TZOO earned $4.1 million, or 24 cents a share, on revenue of $16.9 million.
TZOO hit a 52 week low on June 13 2006 when it closed at $25.70
Posted at 03:05 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)
April 24, 2007
Amarin Corp. plc (NASDAQ AMRN)
Last Trade: 0.83
Trade Time: 3:59PM ET
Change: 2.95 (78.04%)
AMARIN (NASDAQ AMRN) announced "that two Phase III clinical trials of Miraxion as a treatment for Huntington's disease showed no statistically significant difference in either study between Miraxion and placebo with regard to the primary and secondary endpoints."
Posted at 02:28 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)
April 23, 2007
Applied Micro Circuits Corp. (NASDAQ AMCC)
Last Trade: 2.73
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 0.80 (22.66%)
AMCC announced it would post fourth-quarter revenue of about $70 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had forecast revenue of $73.9 million.
Posted at 03:06 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)
April 20, 2007
Capitol Bancorp Ltd. (NYSE CBC)
Last Trade: 30.35
Trade Time: 4:03PM ET
Change: 6.40 (17.41%)
Capitol Bancorp Ltd.(NYSE CBC), announced its first-quarter profit fell 37 percent primarily due to weak mortgage markets in Michigan.
Posted at 02:11 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)
Mentor Corp. (NYSE MNT)
Last Trade: 40.00
Trade Time: 4:02PM ET
Change: 8.25 (17.10%)
Mentor (NYSE MNT) fell 17% percent a day after the breast implant maker posted disappointing results and cut its sales outlook.
Posted at 02:09 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)
April 19, 2007
Avici Systems Inc. (NASDAQ AVCI)
Last Trade: 9.65
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 3.89 (28.73%)
AVCI announced on Thursday that it would halt its core router development and focus on a new product initiative. The company said it would turn its focus to its new Soapstone Networks product and ship it remaining router products by the end of the year.
Posted at 01:54 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)
Smith Micro Software Inc. (NASDAQ SMSI)
Last Trade: 16.36
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 3.37 (17.08%)
Jefferies & Co. downgraded SMSI on Thurdays citing that inventory transition and fewer new music devices at Verizon Communications Inc. could limit Smith Micro's near term revenue growth.
The brokerage lowered its rating on the stock of the wireless communication software products developer to "hold" from "buy" and reduced its price target to $21 from $24.
Posted at 01:51 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)
April 18, 2007
Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ ESLR)
Last Trade: 10.64
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 1.26 (10.59%)
ESLR reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, but warned it would post a wider second-quarter loss. ESLR is predicting a second-quarter loss of $8 million to $8.3 million, or 10 cents a share.
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ESLR closed Wednesday @ 10.64.....within 1 cent of it's 20 day moving average of 10.65
ESLR's 50 day moving average is currently 9.92
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April 17, 2007
Netlist Inc. (NASDAQ NLST)
Last Trade: 4.29
Trade Time: 3:59PM ET
Change: 1.68 (28.14%)
Shares of Netlist Inc. plummeted after the opening bell Tuesday after the company said customers are delaying orders for memory systems and prices for those systems are falling.
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Is this a good thing?
Travelzoo Announces Share Repurchase Program
Thursday April 26, 2:39 pm ET
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Travelzoo (NASDAQ:TZOO - News), a global Internet media company, today announced that its board of directors has authorized the repurchase of up to 1 million of the company's outstanding common shares.
Purchases may be made, from time to time, in the open market and will be funded from available cash. The number of shares to be purchased and the timing of purchases will be based on the level of Travelzoo's cash balances, general business and market conditions, and other factors, including alternative investment opportunities.
yes, this means that the company believes that the shares are currently undervalued. It also reduces the float and increases the EPS. This is a signal that TZOO believes that the share price will be much higher in the future.
TZOO appears to be a very strong buy at these levels and especially now that the company has announced a buy back of 1 mil. shares. This will reduce the float to 1.9 mil. shares.
I bought some yesterday and added to my position today. ;D
So maybe we won't have to ride it down too far, or maybe we've seen the bottom. I bought some more yesterday. If we're still shooting for those great numbers down the road,how can one not buy here. GLTA.
Quote from: soxguy on April 26, 2007, 04:29:37 PM
So maybe we won't have to ride it down too far, or maybe we've seen the bottom. I bought some more yesterday. If we're still shooting for those great numbers down the road,how can one not buy here. GLTA.
I agree... I don't see it going down much more if at all.
Be patient and buy more around $25.00 as company will continue to gobble-up more shares as price descends.
Obviously this transaction makes future earnings per/share easier to obtain.
Only reason TZOO made more per/share this quarter verses a year ago same quarter was because of less shares outstanding.
I agree with you guys, great news for TZOO yesterday:
• Travelzoo Announces Share Repurchase Program (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070426/20070426006123.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu 2:39pm)
This is one of the reasons I like TZOO, management has this good habit of buying back the company's own shares. You can see that on my valuation model I already had 0.98 as the dilution factor, which means I expect the share count to be reduced by 2% a year, on average. This is quite rare on a less than $1 B market cap company.
Currently the # of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis is 16,480,000, down from 17,298,000 from a year ago, or -4.73%. With the company buying back 1,000,000 more shares the share count will be reduced further by, say, 800,000 (because probably there will be some stock options as employee compensation, I'll have to check that later) to 15,680,000, a 4.85% reduction. We don't know how long will this take to happen, but I guess my 0.98 dilution factor remains appropriate (say it will take them two years to buy the 1,000,000 shares).
Now, at current prices 1,000,000 shares will cost $28,140,000, and the company's cash balance is $39.9 M. This is why I expect them to buy shares as they generate more cash, and not to do it over the short term.
Anyway, as yukiii and mbaugh say, this will make it easier for the company to increase EPS, since EPS is Net Income/# of shares outstanding.
It looks like TZOO's management doesn't think the market reaction to Q1 numbers was appropriate. I agree with management, since the weak quarter was mostly due to strong investments in the future growth of the business.
My valuation model says the stock is more attractive now than in the past, since the share price decline and long term fundamentals remained steady:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36247;image)
(results declined a bit because I changed the initial share count to the diluted instead of the basic number of number of shares outstanding and the industry's average earnings multiple declined 1 point)
I'll keep holding TZOO.
Until Travelzoo can demonstrate profitable growth in Europe or accelerated growth in the
U.S., I find it difficult to assign a premium multiple to its earnings. Near-term concerns about challenges to revenue and
earnings growth given increased competition (Priceline's Pricebreakers), which may cause share price volatility.
I think that the company will be challenged to grow earnings at greater than
a 20% rate, given the moderating growth in its core U.S. business.
Slower growth due to future competition into outbound email travel marketing by large Internet portals, increasing subscriber acquisition
costs, and international expansion issues.
Value $25-$29
The Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street This Week
Page 3
3. Zoo Story
Bulls stampeded out of Travelzoo (TZOO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) this week.
The online publisher of cut-rate travel deals saw its shares plunge 23% Wednesday after flat first-quarter earnings. New York-based Travelzoo blamed rising marketing spending for the shortfall.
"In Q1, we decided to invest a record $6.7 million in subscriber acquisition and in marketing the Travelzoo brand," CEO Ralph Bartel said in a Tuesday afternoon press release. "We added four senior executives in North America, Europe and Asia. We believe that this positions Travelzoo well to capture the growth opportunities we see ahead for the future."
Just how well is Travelzoo positioned? Hard to say. One of two analysts who endured the subsequent conference call wondered about the competition that presumably prompted the big rise in marketing spending. The analyst asked Travelzoo execs to explain what "your strategy is to combat it and to what extent it may have changed the growth going forward in the industry."
Executive vice president Holger Bartel, Ralph's brother, brushed off the question as a weary traveler might a flight attendant's offer of lukewarm coffee.
"I am not sure I really understand your question," he replied, according to the SeekingAlpha.com transcript. "There have always been competitors in the market who are trying to imitate what we do. We have seen that now for years."
The notion that Expedia (EXPE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Priceline (PCLN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) have been trying to "imitate" Travelzoo seems like a stretch. Expedia, for instance, posted 2006 revenue of $2.24 billion, compared with Travelzoo's $70 million. But Holger Bartel isn't persuaded.
"We hear from our advertisers that they are not providing them results," he continues of Travelzoo's rivals, "the results that we are providing our advertising clients."
Travelzoo investors know all about not getting results.
Dumb-o-Meter score: 85. "Now, you wonder what determines by what percentage we increase the rates," Bartel lectures at one point. "If we see a lot of demand in certain areas, for example hotels or cruises, we are more inclined to increase rates."
Page 1 2 3 4 5 NEXT PAGE >
A not very flattering view of MR. Bartel.
Quote from: soxguy on April 27, 2007, 08:00:43 AM
"I am not sure I really understand your question," he replied, according to the SeekingAlpha.com transcript. "There have always been competitors in the market who are trying to imitate what we do. We have seen that now for years."
The notion that Expedia (EXPE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Priceline (PCLN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) have been trying to "imitate" Travelzoo seems like a stretch. Expedia, for instance, posted 2006 revenue of $2.24 billion, compared with Travelzoo's $70 million. But Holger Bartel isn't persuaded.
Expedia and Priceline are not their competitors, they are their customers. So the only one that looks stupid there is the writers for implying that and simply not knowing what the hell he is writing about.
Quote from: dragonamg on April 27, 2007, 09:39:18 AM
Quote from: soxguy on April 27, 2007, 08:00:43 AM
"I am not sure I really understand your question," he replied, according to the SeekingAlpha.com transcript. "There have always been competitors in the market who are trying to imitate what we do. We have seen that now for years."
The notion that Expedia (EXPE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Priceline (PCLN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) have been trying to "imitate" Travelzoo seems like a stretch. Expedia, for instance, posted 2006 revenue of $2.24 billion, compared with Travelzoo's $70 million. But Holger Bartel isn't persuaded.
Expedia and Priceline are not their competitors, they are their customers. So the only one that looks stupid there is the writers for implying that and simply not knowing what the hell he is writing about.
I agree with you dragonamg. Moreover it is easy to say "you're dumb because you bought stock X, Y, Z and it went down" after the fact. Anybody can do that, I bet my 4 year old kid could do it :)
As for TZOO, yes, it can be down some more, but it is getting to cheap territory in my view. Even though analysts took estimates down due to the weak Q1 results, they're still at $1.16 EPS expected for 2007, and that means the EPS multiple is 23.7, and the Internet Information Providers (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=TZOO) industry average is 34.3.
The company is having a short term setback due to its investments in Europe and Asia, but over the longer term these investments will probably increase the company's overall profitability. I'll keep holding TZOO.
I'm a bit confused regarding the information I can find on TZOO's shares shorted.
Shortsqueeze has the number at 68.40% of float. ???
E*TRADE shows it to be 275.55% of float! ???
Can anyone provide some more realistic numbers?
Thank you.
Hi cumulina, my fundamental data service says there were 2,011,012 shares sold short in April 10, 2007. The short interest ratio (the number of days it would take shorts to cover given the average daily volume) is 7.3 days. In terms of % of the free float, the free float is 7,525,550 shares, so we're talking about 26% of the free float sold short.
I see this information is quite different from yours. E*Trade's numbers aren't possible (unless there's naked short selling going on). And that shortssqueeze number also seems way too high, but possibly it is a more recent count than may own which is dated April 10.
Anyway, I don't think the number of shares held short has a material impact on the long term price of the stock, since it has nothing to do with the fundamentals. That would be a way of trying to know what others think, so I could follow or go against, but I prefer to have my own ideas.
TZOO had a bit of a bounce yesterday, the first positive sign after that horrible gap down after the earnings release. Analysts are expecting about 15% revenue CAGR going forward, and I'm expecting 30%. Perhaps I'm too optimistic in my views on TZOO. Let's break it down in geographical terms, just to see if my faith in Europe alone may do the trick:
- North America revenue grew 13% in Q1 2007 when compared to Q1 2006, to $18.5 M;
- Europe revenue grew 128% to $1.3 M.
Let's multiply this by 4 quarters and expect North American to keep growing 13% a year and Europe to grow 100% a year. Here are the results:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36378;image)
Ok, if North America grows 13% and Europe grows 100% (because it is coming up from a very small base), revenue CAGR will be 23.3%. I guess these are reasonable expectations, so let me change the revenue CAGR on my valuation model, I hope there isn't a dramatic impact:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36379;image)
There was some impact, but fortunately not dramatic enough to make TZOO unattractive. But there's another issue here, which is the positive impact on net profit margin from Europe hopefully becoming a profitable business unit. If revenue in Europe were $42 M I bet the unit would boast a fat net profit margin. We'll study the expected net profit margin for TZOO over the next update.
I'll continue holding TZOO.
Going lower, Be patient and buy more around $25.00 as company will continue to gobble-up more shares as price descends.
why do you say its going all the way down to 25/share?
Quote from: pinoleropuro on May 01, 2007, 08:48:24 PM
why do you say its going all the way down to 25/share?
For a long term buy and hold you can buy here, but as a short term trade I would wait for a lower price.
Lower because there is no incentive to jump in and buy here and its a long summer.
TZOO is touching support around the $27 area. Yes, it may go down to the $25 - $26 area, but it would certainly be very attractive at those levels. My valuation model says TZOO will return 46.55% a year for the next 3 years (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TZOO&portfolio=main), I'll keep holding the stock.
Interesting article on TZOO:
"Gurus Jump Into Travelzoo"
When travel information Web site Travelzoo got clobbered last week on a sour earnings announcement, top investors at Marketocracy.com took the opportunity to shares of the volatile stocks at a significantly reduced price.
Earnings for the quarter were 25 cents per share, as the company said that its costs were rising and that it spent 44 cents per share just to acquire new customers. The 22% miss of analyst estimates sent the stock down 24%, where gurus bought in.
Ups and downs are nothing new to Travelzoo, which was a 10-bagger back in 2004, hitting $100 briefly that year before falling down into the teens in 2005. But despite its high-flying past, the $27.76 stock is priced at a relatively cheap 27.6 times earnings now that its near its 52-week low.
Gurus saw that rising costs shouldn't hurt its profitability for a while yet, since Travelzoo has the cushion of a 45% margin before taxes. Their buy was so big it went from not being a holding to being near to the top 100 holdings overall in M100 portfolios."
http://www.forbes.com/2007/05/02/travelzoo-symmetricom-corning-pf-ii-in_mr_0502gurupicks_inl.html?partner=yahootix
Wxmang
Thanks for the article wxmang :)
TZOO recovered some ground yesterday, reacting positively to a support area. I believe the stock is getting ready to start a recovery phase. Analysts are looking for $1.16 EPS for the full year of 2007, so the forward earnings multiple is 23.9, which doesn't seem high considering the very fat net profit margin of this business. Just a bit of revenue growth and a good chunk of it goes to the bottom line. Probably this is why the stock is so volatile.
I'll keep holding TZOO.
TZOO is starting to come back. The fact is that everyone wants this business, they just don't agree on price lol
What I mean is, TZOO is a very well managed and attractive business with a bright future in my view, the only issue is valuation. Currently the company is selling for 24.4 times 2007 estimated EPS, and I don't think it can get much cheaper than this, because of the profitability of the business. If there's some revenue growth, 25-30% will go to the bottom line, this after 40% plus taxes (the only mistake from management is being based in New York, it should be in the Cayman Islands ;D).
The company's clients, mostly online travel agencies, are seeing their business grow by leaps and bounds, and that is due to the help of services like Travelzoo. In the future the company's European operations will be as big or even bigger than its US counterparts and as profitable in my view. This will make the company double in size over the next couple of years.
I'll keep holding TZOO.
One issue that attracts me to TZOO is its fat net profit margin. Yet, this can be a double edge sword, because it attracts competitors to the field. Fool's published an article on Thursday that talks about a competitive threat to TZOO's business, coming from Priceline.com (PCLN):
Waterloo for Travelzoo (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/05/03/waterloo-for-travelzoo.aspx)
Anyway, TZOO's business isn't getting subscribers to its free newsletter (since it is free), it is selling advertising services to more than 600 companies:
«More than 600 companies purchase our advertising services, including American Airlines, ATA, Avis Rent A Car, British Airways, Caesars Entertainment, Expedia, Fairmont Hotels & Resorts, Interstate Hotels & Resorts, JetBlue Airways, Kimpton Hotels, Liberty Travel, Marriott Hotels, Royal Caribbean, Spirit Airlines, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, United Airlines, and Vanguard Rent-A-Car.»
Of course, they need a growing base of subscribers to their free mailing list, so the value of its advertising services go up, but the same people can subscribe to TZOO's and PCLN newsletters, in fact, probably many do that.
I'm going to keep myself concentrated on TZOO's growth in Europe and Asia and I'll keep holding the stock.
You can find this article at;
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070506:MTFH33528_2007-05-06_18-32-34_L0637474&type=comktNews&rpc=44 (http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070506:MTFH33528_2007-05-06_18-32-34_L0637474&type=comktNews&rpc=44)
Europe, Asia balancing US econ slowdown
By Sven Egenter and Natsuko Waki
BASEL, Switzerland, May 6 (Reuters) - Central bankers from key emerging economies said on Sunday robust growth in Europe and Asia is compensating a slowdown in the U.S. economy but raising inflationary risks.
Global economic growth is at its strongest in three decades and risk-hungry investors have pushed up world stocks to record highs over the past week.
Reuters Pictures
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However, the world's biggest economy lost momentum with its growth hitting its weakest rate in four years in the first three months of this year. Euro zone growth is at its best since 2000 and China's economy is expanding at a blistering pace.
"The U.S. economy might be slowing down a bit, but it's still doing very well and fundamentals remain good... We are not talking about recession or significant slowdown," Muhammad Al-Jasser, vice governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, told Reuters.
"Whatever slowdown that may be happening in the U.S. is being compensated for by more robust growth in Europe and Asia and the rest of the emerging markets, which are collectively doing very well," he said on the sidelines of a two-day meeting of top central bankers at the Bank for International Settlements.
Thanks for the informative article Houlahan :)
As one can see on my long term valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TZOO&portfolio=main), I consider TZOO to be attractive over the long term, with a 44.98% estimated share price compound annual growth rate going forward. But I must say that I don't expect the stock to move to the upside before there are publicly known fundamental improvements, and that's probably going to take at least three months.
I feel I can sell TZOO here, put the exact same amount of money in another stock, get the money I lost here back and then reenter TZOO again at roughly the same price I'm going to sell it today.
I have a strategy, and discipline, but I'm not a robot. I'm flexible to achieve what I believe are the superior interests of the Main Portfolio, and its pursuit of an outstanding investment performance.
I believe I know the exact stock to make the switch, which is GOAM. I'll explain why on that stock's thread.
The trading plan for TZOO is SELL. I'll get back to it a couple of weeks from now.
David I think you should wait 2 days before you sell , because the stock gave a good sign yestreday .. it should move higher soon ...
Its up to you ...
Quote from: Garoh on May 08, 2007, 09:25:31 AM
David I think you should wait 2 days before you sell , because the stock gave a good sign yestreday .. it should move higher soon ...
Its up to you ...
Thanks for your opinion Garoh, of course, everybody is free to do what he thinks is best, my job is to write about what I think is the best course of action for a long term above average performance. I wouldn't mind buying TZOO higher than what I'm about to sell.
Good luck Garoh and others that will keep holding TZOO :)
I was a little late getting in but that may not be too bad. I bought at 29.10. If the last valutation model still remains true I am holdong my position since I actually bought after the dip. I guess I'll be waiting for you guys to come back in three months from now.
Are my scribbles far fetched?
Green being the buy zone and red being the sell zone.
Hopefully, TZOO already used the black descending trend line and $27 horizontal line as support areas.
Stochastics and rsi(14) are oversold but MACD is below zero without any sign of a bullish divergence so far.
Looking forward for comments.
RSI and Stochastic indicate over sold volume picked up a little bit hopefully this means its slowly but surely starting to come back
Ok, as promised, TZOO will be back to the Main Portfolio today. I've been checking their business potential and feel it is too cheap at these levels (well, I thought it was cheap the first time I bought it at $39.3, but a disappointing quarter took it down in an horrible gap down).
The following press release explains TZOO's business quite well, I believe:
• Travelzoo Tops Half a Million Subscribers to its Canadian Publications (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070528/nym011.html?.v=88)
PR Newswire (Mon, May 28)
The company's European and Asian businesses are still just starting (and they've been losing money), but I think the business model being the same, I don't see why TZOO should fail in Europe and Asia, after being so successful in the US.
So, it's just a matter of time for revenues and profits to double or triple due to international expansion. The stock should double or triple too.
In terms of the valuation model, I estimate:
1) Dilution factor
0.98, TZOO has been buying back shares.
2) Revenue CAGR
23.3%, that's the conclusion I got to over the following update (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9360.msg97131#msg97131).
3) Net Profit margin estimate
30%. When the European business unit stops losing money and starts earnings some, net profit margin will probably climb from 24% to 30% or so.
4) EPS multiple estimate
31.84. It's the Internet Information Providers industry average (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=TZOO).
Given these estimates, the valuation model looks like this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37495;image)
Final estimated share price is $86.08, share price CAGR is 50% and the optimal selling price is $55.94. I find this very attractive.
The trading plan is:
Buy TZOO, 6.66% of capital as always.
Wedbush Morgan
Travelzoo (TZOO)
Q1 Earnings Below Our Estimate on Higher Investment
Spending
52-Week Range $19.57 - $52.99 Long-Term Debt $0
Shares Outstanding 17 million Debt/Capital 0%
Insider/Institutional 86% / 14% ROE 35%
Public Float 3 million Cash & Inv/Share $2.42
Market Capitalization $627 million Book Value/Share $2.48
FYE DEC 2006A 2007E 2008E
EPS($) ACTUAL CURRENT PREVIOUS CURRENT PREVIOUS
Q1 Mar $0.24 $0.25A $0.34E $0.28E $0.34E
Q2 Jun 0.23 0.26E 0.30E 0.32E 0.38E
Q3 Sep 0.28 0.30E 0.33E 0.37E
Q4 Dec 0.26 0.29E 0.31E 0.32E 0.36E
Year $1.01 $1.10E $1.25E $1.25E $1.45E
P/E Ratio 37x 34x 30x
Change 124% 9% 14%
FYE DEC 2006A 2007E 2008E
Revenue ($ mil.) ACTUAL CURRENT PREVIOUS CURRENT PREVIOUS
Q1 Mar $17 $20A $21E $22E $23E
Q2 Jun 17 20E 21E 22E 24E
Q3 Sep 18 20E 21E 22E 23E
Q4 Dec 18 20E 21E 23E 23E
Year $70 $80E $84E $89E $93E
Change 37% 15% 11%
Rating
HOLD
12- Month Target Price
$33
Q1 EPS much lower than expected. Revenue was $20 million, compared with our estimate of $21 million and
the consensus estimate of $20 million. EPS was $0.25, much lower than our estimate of $0.34 and the consensus
estimate of $0.32.
•
We are lowering our 2007 estimates for revenue from $84 million to $80 million and for EPS from $1.25 to
$1.10 to reflect increased marketing costs and slower growth for the domestic division. We believe that
the company intends to invest for the next few quarters to position its European operations to generate profits
next year.
•
We expect more modest earnings growth in 2007 as the company will take somewhat longer to turn a
profit internationally. As we believe investors are focused on revenue growth, we believe that slowing
growth rates may keep Travelzoo shares range-bound. In addition to its investment in Europe, the company
recently announced plans to further expand to Asia. We acknowledge that the company has the potential to grow
earnings much faster than we have modeled should it moderate spending or should European sales accelerate.
•
Until Travelzoo can demonstrate profitable growth in Europe or more rapid growth in the U.S., we find it
difficult to assign a premium multiple to its earnings. Internet travel advertising and Internet travel company
valuations remain strong, but we have near-term concerns about challenges to revenue and earnings growth
given increased competition (e.g., Priceline's Pricebreakers), which may cause share price volatility.
•
Maintaining HOLD and 12-month price target of $33, or 25x our 2008 EPS estimate of $1.25 plus $2/share
in cash. We believe that this valuation is fair, with a multiple about in line with the company's expected earnings
growth rate of 25% over the next several years. We think that the company will be challenged to grow earnings at
greater than a 25% rate, given the moderating growth in its core U.S. business.
•
Risks to attainment of our share price target include slower growth due to worsening macro economic factors,
future competition into outbound email travel marketing by large Internet portals, increasing subscriber acquisition
costs, and international expansion issues.
David,I bought some 2 days ago when it dipped under $26. Nice to have some company. Yukii,I enjoy reading your posts because you point out the risks that are inherent in any trade. But remember,these are not money market funds we're dealing with and I think everyone in this community accepts that. GLTA
Quote from: David Randolph on June 01, 2007, 06:03:11 AM
Ok, as promised, TZOO will be back to the Main Portfolio today. I've been checking their business potential and feel it is too cheap at these levels (well, I thought it was cheap the first time I bought it at $39.3, but a disappointing quarter took it down in an horrible gap down).
Yup, your valuation model sounds attractive but...
"If a stock is under many or all of the key moving averages (20-, 50-, 100-, 200- and 250-day moving averages), then that stock is probably headed lower - regardless of what the fundamentals look like. There's an old Wall Street saying that cautions, "Don't buy stocks, buy companies." Investors tend to buy companies, while traders tend to buy stocks. However, the very best investors soon realize that both components are required in order to achieve top results. Before you make an investment, it's worth a look to see if it's actually moving in the right direction, or if it's above most of its moving averages."
Quote from: Terliso on June 01, 2007, 11:18:44 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on June 01, 2007, 06:03:11 AM
Ok, as promised, TZOO will be back to the Main Portfolio today. I've been checking their business potential and feel it is too cheap at these levels (well, I thought it was cheap the first time I bought it at $39.3, but a disappointing quarter took it down in an horrible gap down).
Yup, your valuation model sounds attractive but...
"If a stock is under many or all of the key moving averages (20-, 50-, 100-, 200- and 250-day moving averages), then that stock is probably headed lower - regardless of what the fundamentals look like. There's an old Wall Street saying that cautions, "Don't buy stocks, buy companies." Investors tend to buy companies, while traders tend to buy stocks. However, the very best investors soon realize that both components are required in order to achieve top results. Before you make an investment, it's worth a look to see if it's actually moving in the right direction, or if it's above most of its moving averages."
I have to agree with you Terlisa. I don't see this stock going anywhere anytime soon. If I were in it, I would look to take quick profits however small if at all possible. When a correction occurs, the weak only get weaker and the strong hold up much better. Can't at all understand why David bought this yet. Hmm.
Quote"If a stock is under many or all of the key moving averages (20-, 50-, 100-, 200- and 250-day moving averages), then that stock is probably headed lower - regardless of what the fundamentals look like. There's an old Wall Street saying that cautions, "Don't buy stocks, buy companies." Investors tend to buy companies, while traders tend to buy stocks. However, the very best investors soon realize that both components are required in order to achieve top results. Before you make an investment, it's worth a look to see if it's actually moving in the right direction, or if it's above most of its moving averages."
Whoever wrote that, probably didn't look at hundreds or thousands of long term charts as I did. I mean, charts since the IPO. Because if he did that, he would naturally see that there are no 10 or 20 baggers without periods of weakness, periods where they break the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving averages, and still go higher over the long term.
QuoteHowever, the very best investors soon realize that both components are required in order to achieve top results
Who are these very best investors? Where are their statistics and results? A few days ago someone posted the results of the best investors of the past 10 years, there were 60 stars there, and the man that was in the first place, with a 22% average annual return, was Warren Buffett, and he of course completely disregards moving averages. Just food for thought.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 01, 2007, 11:45:23 AM
Whoever wrote that, probably didn't look at hundreds or thousands of long term charts as I did. I mean, charts since the IPO. Because if he did that, he would naturally see that there are no 10 or 20 baggers without periods of weakness, periods where they break the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving averages, and still go higher over the long term.
True, stocks breaks 20, 50, 100, 200 days and still go higher over the long term, but most of it apply only in the daily chart.
The author of that probably meant looking in the weekly chart.
Example: MSFT
Quote from: soxguy on June 01, 2007, 08:54:17 AM
David,I bought some 2 days ago when it dipped under $26. Nice to have some company. Yukii,I enjoy reading your posts because you point out the risks that are inherent in any trade. But remember,these are not money market funds we're dealing with and I think everyone in this community accepts that. GLTA
I don't point out the risks as all trades thave risks , just a reason to buy something else more attractive. TZOO I didn't like at $39 still don't like it at $26.00
But isn't being counterintuitive part of this whole process? When TZOO looks bad and no one likes it,isn't that the time to buy? Just a contrarian pov.
Quote from: soxguy on June 01, 2007, 12:40:43 PM
But isn't being counterintuitive part of this whole process? When TZOO looks bad and no one likes it,isn't that the time to buy? Just a contrarian pov.
No, just because a stock goes down, dosn't mean its a good buy.
I always look for good companies to buy when they are sold off and the business has not changed or in the wrong sector. But TZOO looks to be in a bad business model going forward and will find it harder to grow.
Interesting discussion here.....
I'm not an expert but I think why buy a stock that it's going down and it has not bottomed yet? Doing this is almost assuring more blood for the portfolio, isn't it? You can always keep it in your watchlist and buy when the technical conditions improve. I'm not telling that the stock could not change the trend soon but it's all about probabilities.
JMHO
Buy EBIX instead
Press Release Source: Ebix, Inc.
Ebix Net Income Grows 73% in First Quarter of 2007
Tuesday May 15, 9:23 am ET
Earnings Per Share Rises 69% to $0.61
ATLANTA--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ebix, Inc. (NASDAQ: EBIX - News):
Conference call: Thursday, May 17, 2007 at 11:00 A.M. EDT
Webcast / Replay URL: http://www.ebix.com, Click on Investor Home Page
Dial-in numbers: 1-888-687-3295 Dial pass code 9196296
Ebix, Inc. (NASDAQ: EBIX - News), a leading international developer and supplier of software and e-commerce solutions to the insurance industry, today reported financial results for the first quarter of 2007.
Ebix reported total revenue of $9.02 million for the quarter, compared to $5.65 million for the first quarter of 2006, marking a sixty percent (60%) increase in revenues. The company's operating income for the quarter rose eighty-nine percent (89%) to $2.24 million, as compared to $1.18 million in the first quarter of 2006.
Net income after taxes for the quarter rose seventy-three percent (73%) to $1.96 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, up from $1.13 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2006-- reflecting earnings per share growth of sixty-nine percent (69%). Results for the first quarter of 2007 were based on 3.22 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding, as compared to 3.14 million in the first quarter of 2006. Basic earnings per share in the first quarter of 2007 rose sixty-eight percent (68%) to $0.69 as compared to $0.41 in the first quarter of 2006.
The company's operating expenses for the quarter grew by fifty-two percent (52%) to $6.78 million as compared to $4.47 million for the first quarter of 2006. The company attributed the increase primarily to the acquisition of Infinity Consulting and Finetre in May 2006 and October 2006 respectively.
Robin Raina, President and CEO, Ebix said, "We are pleased to have started 2007 on a strong note. Our business fundamentals remain strong and in the coming quarters, we intend to continue our efforts to grow the company."
Raina added: "Our cash position remains strong and we intend to devote some of our cash to making additional strategic acquisitions in the insurance market space. To fund these acquisitions, we intend to only use means that allow us to keep any acquisitions accretive from an earnings perspective."
The company's product and service strategy focuses on four areas:
1. Insurance Carrier System Products. Insurance carrier system services
have centered around two products, Infinity Systems and Business
Reinsurance and Insurance Company System (BRICS). Infinity Systems is a
comprehensive, fully integrated, client server technology policy and
claims administration system designed for small-to-medium sized property
and casualty insurers. It is also used by large insurers to administer
niche products and specialty lines. The BRICS product is a .NET-based,
end-to-end carrier management system that includes key modules such as
policy management, claims administration, underwriting, rating, and
general ledger. The system is fully configurable for each customer and
is provided in an ASP or client hosted mode.
2. Broker/Agency Management Systems. The broker/agency channel is
served by several products and services, including EbixASP, eGlobal,
Winbeat and customer software development projects. EbixASP is a
web-enabled system for insurance agencies to manage their businesses and
is sold both as a hosted and a self-hosted product. The company-hosted
product generates revenues through initial registration and ongoing
monthly subscription fees based on the number of personnel accessing the
software. Ebix also focuses on providing self hosted broker systems,
under the name Winbeat to small and midsize brokers in the Australian
market. Ebix also licenses eGlobal, its agency management software
product line, in the international markets to the very large brokers.
eGlobal is a multi-lingual and multi-currency modular agency management
solution and it is sold in a hosted or client installed mode.
3. Exchange and Connectivity. The company's exchange suite of products
provide connectivity between consumers, agents, carriers, and third
party providers, and includes, WinFlex, Vital Suite, EbixExchange,
AnnuityNet and LifeSpeed. WinFlex and Vital Suite are EbixLife services
that provide sales illustrations and quote comparison services to
insurance brokers, carriers and wholesalers operating in the life
insurance, annuity and long-term care markets. EbixExchange is an
Internet based service to facilitate connectivity for upload, download,
and data exchange between carriers, agents and third party providers.
The AnnuityNet platform is an exchange service that is designed to link
annuity distributors and issuers by providing workflow routing,
compliance and application vetting for annuity products. The LifeSpeed
platform is an exchange service designed to connect life insurance
distributors and carriers, providing workflow automation, data
collection and status of life insurance sales.
4. BPO Services. The company has developed a business process
outsourcing service based in India that provides custom software
development services and back-end call center services primarily for
brokers and insurance carriers.
With bases in Singapore, Australia, the US, New Zealand, India and
Canada, Ebix employs insurance and technology professionals who provide
products, support and consultancy to more than 3,000 customers on six
continents.
I know David doesn't worry about liquidity anymore, but EBIX is INCREDIBLY illiquid. Those big volume days were still only about 40 or 50 thousand shares. Under 6k traded today. I guess this may not matter, but it's just something to consider. If it became a 3sof pick, it would easily move a few points I think.
Problem is not getting in, because you can decide when & what to do,
the bloodshed is when you want to get out.
If you can stay tunned the whole day long you may succeed, otherwise
my policy is to stay away from pinks and illiquid stocks.
Quote from: jorgegr on June 01, 2007, 03:43:27 PM
Problem is not getting in, because you can decide when & what to do,
the bloodshed is when you want to get out.
If you can stay tunned the whole day long you may succeed, otherwise
my policy is to stay away from pinks and illiquid stocks.
Yeah a TCHC type implosion would be bloody murder on this one. Ouch!
QuoteCan't at all understand why David bought this yet.
Hi BigSully, I said I would, and I did. If I said I would, and I didn't, you would say: "you didn't do what you said you would do" ;D. The stock looks attractive to me, from a fundamental standpoint.
QuoteThe author of that probably meant looking in the weekly chart.
In your copy/paste the author specifically wrote "daily" moving averages:
Quote"If a stock is under many or all of the key moving averages (20-, 50-, 100-, 200- and 250-day moving averages) ...
Quote from: soxguy on June 01, 2007, 12:40:43 PM
But isn't being counterintuitive part of this whole process? When TZOO looks bad and no one likes it,isn't that the time to buy? Just a contrarian pov.
That has been the case soxguy, as one can see at the chart below:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37558;image)
QuoteNo, just because a stock goes down, dosn't mean its a good buy.
I always look for good companies to buy when they are sold off and the business has not changed or in the wrong sector. But TZOO looks to be in a bad business model going forward and will find it harder to grow.
Bad business model? They had a net profit margin of 20.58% in Q1 2007, even though they lost money in Europe. And even though they paid 48.2% in taxes. This is the company that pays the highest tax rate I've ever seen, they should change their headquarters from NY to the Cayman Islands, the stock would double overnight ;D
Quote from: nica33 on June 01, 2007, 01:09:44 PM
Interesting discussion here.....
I'm not an expert but I think why buy a stock that it's going down and it has not bottomed yet? Doing this is almost assuring more blood for the portfolio, isn't it? You can always keep it in your watchlist and buy when the technical conditions improve. I'm not telling that the stock could not change the trend soon but it's all about probabilities.
JMHO
More blood? The Main Portfolio is up 20.28% so far in 2007 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) (a 55% annualized return), more than in the whole year of 2006 (when the strategy was almost exclusively technical), even though I made several mistakes, like buying TZOO at the top of its range, for example.
Anyway, what do you mean by "technical conditions improving"? The way I see it now, what you mean is: "why don't you wait to buy the stock at a higher price?" Lol, just kidding.
I know the trend is your friend and I respect the market. If you look at the Main Portfolio holdings, most of them have bullish charts. But why always give more weight to technical analysis than to fundamental analysis? Moreover, TZOO's chart is one of those where the technical analyst, buying when the trend was bullish and selling when the trend was bearish, was buying near the highs and selling near the lows. This is because the stock has been stuck in a long term trading range, between roughly $25 and $40. I believe I'm buying near the bottom of the trading range of this stock.
I have a book, one of the first ones I read about the stock market, that says the following about moving averages:
«Médias móveis funcionam muito bem em acções em tendência. Em mercados laterais deveriam antes chamar-se merdas móveis» hahaha
Translation: "Moving averages work very well in trending stocks. In lateral stocks they should be called shitty averages instead" (it works better in Portuguese).
Ok, going back to TZOO. Company pays a lot of taxes. Still earns a lot of money. Business is expanding in Europe and Asia, but still losing money there. Business model should work as well in Europe and Asia as it did in the USA (perhaps even better in Europe, people travel more here), so these units will probably be profitable in the future.
Without Europe and Asia dragging down profits, instead contributing to them, TZOO may very well double the EPS it got in 2006, which was $1.01, to $2, in two years time. The Internet Information Providers (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=TZOO) industry trades at 32 times earnings. If you apply the industry average valuation to TZOO you get a $64 stock.
I'll keep holding the stock, regardless of short term technical fluctuations.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 03, 2007, 06:40:18 AM
QuoteCan't at all understand why David bought this yet.
Hi BigSully, I said I would, and I did. If I said I would, and I didn't, you would say: "you didn't do what you said you would do" ;D. The stock looks attractive to me, from a fundamental standpoint.
No david, I don't believe I would have come back later and said that. It's really good to see you have strong conviction in most of your picks. All I'm wondering about is how weak the stock is still behaving with the market making new highs. And the gap below 25 appears ominous to me. I prefer to wait. But you will probably be right, if not in the ST, at least eventually.
No near term catalyst for it to go up 2nd quarter will not be good because of asian expansion.
Stock is now at support if they dissapoint again next quarter then down to $20. It all rides on the next earnings report. I you think it will be good buy, if not stay away.
TZOO $ 25.72
Travelzoo Inc -0.06
Shares Short 2,143,500
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 3.4
Short % of Float 72.91 %Shares Short - Prior 2,011,000
Short % Increase / Decrease 6.59 %
April 26, 2007
Can Travelzoo make going to the zoo fun again?
Travelzoo is a great website and they have 11 million fans that feel the same way too. You don't book tickets at Travelzoo.com, you click through to the travel provider for that. They don't charge you for their information, newsletters, or research - they are the friendly online travel solution.
Travelzoo (TZOO) just reported earnings on Wednesday and revenue rose to $19.7 million from $16.4 million a year earlier. They spent $6.7 million in subscriber acquisition and in marketing the Travelzoo brand making a bet that their website is something special. CEO Ralph Bartel said on the earnings call, "we added four senior executives in North America, Europe and Asia. We believe that this positions Travelzoo well to capture the growth opportunities we see ahead for the future."
However their earnings disappointed Wall Street and despite the running of the bulls, Travelzoo got trampled. The stock is down 26% in the last 5 days and is currently flirting with a new 52-week low today. Travelzoo made $4.1 million, or 25 cents a share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2007. The guys at Thomson Financial were looking for a profit of 32 cents a share on sales of $20.4 million. Thus the reason why we are less than $.25 away from a new low and shares trading at $27.69. Turns out kids still love going to the zoo, but stockbrokers hate it.
So now that we've hit a new low and with all this money poured into building that fan base, what can we expect going forward?
Susquehanna Financial Group believes costs at Travelzoo will remain high throughout 2007 but improved profitability may show up by the first quarter of 2008. Stifel Nicolaus lowered their earnings estimate for Travelzoo from $1.22 to $1.11 per share, and cut revenue estimates to $81.0 million from $83.4 million.
Keep in mind Travelzoo has only 80 employees and revenue has grown an average rate of 57% for the past three years. What's hurting Travelzoo is they do not provide estimates of future earnings and Wall Street has no love or patience for that.
The bottom line is TZOO is one lean, mean, online-travel machine. As of last month, there were a ton of people betting against Travelzoo with the short percentage of TZOO's float at 29.30%. That's almost 1/3 of the 2.94 million shares of Travelzoo being traded held short. So now that those guys have cleaned house, is it safe to go to the zoo?
Over the past few days holding shares in TZOO was about as fun as visiting Jurassic Park. Now that the worst has happened and with their new fan base, maybe Travelzoo can bring back the fun in going to the zoo.
Frank Lara Jr.
April 26, 2007
Frank Lara Jr. can be reached at
[email protected]; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Quote from: yukiii on June 01, 2007, 12:52:42 PM
Quote from: soxguy on June 01, 2007, 12:40:43 PM
But isn't being counterintuitive part of this whole process? When TZOO looks bad and no one likes it,isn't that the time to buy? Just a contrarian pov.
But TZOO looks to be in a bad business model going forward and will find it harder to grow.
I will first start out by saying that Internet Marketing is my profession....
Yukii I disagree with that statement... 2+ years ago I would have definitely agreed with you, but today, you're absolutely wrong and TZOO with continue to grow and strengthen their business and market share. Here is why:
To start I will simply point out some of the facts and changes which the internet travel business is currently experiencing:
* Hotels, airlines, etc have begun to advertise direct and offer best rate guarantees
* Hotels, airlines, etc have begun to "bundle/package" travel packages, just like wholesalers (expedia, travelocity, etc)
* Hotels, airlines, etc. have made an aggressive effort to reduce the margins that are paid to wholesalers to sell their product.
* Hotels, airlines, etc. are mandating that wholesalers post/sell "rack rates" and not ever undercut the product suppliers (hotel, airlines, etc)
* Wholesalers are starting to loss market share and will continue to do so because of this increased competition (more wholesale sites, hotels, airlines, etc)
* Consumers are smarter and much more internet savvy today, they are shopping and in most cases going direct to buy travel
You ask, what does all this mean and how does it help Travelzoo? Well, Travelzoo has positioned itself perfectly, they cater to both the product suppliers (hotels, airlines, etc) and the wholesalers. Travelzoo has the perfect business model and it will benefit significantly from the smarter consumer; the product supplier (hotel, airline, etc) now advertises their own product selling direct to the consumer, the wholesaler (expedia, travelocity, etc) now has to aggressively advertise to recapture lost market share and compete with it's new competitors. Travelzoo is a winner as long as they execute.
I believe this says its all
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZOO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27639401911 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZOO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27639401911)
I would wait if you think they will recover next year. Why tie your money up now. Its not going anywhere.
Quote from: yukiii on June 03, 2007, 11:46:45 PM
I believe this says its all
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZOO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27639401911 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZOO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27639401911)
I would wait if you think they will recover next year. Why tie your money up now. Its not going anywhere.
You have a good point, but due to the low float and high short ratio, this stock can catapult 10+ pts in a single session.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 03, 2007, 06:40:18 AM
QuoteCan't at all understand why David bought this yet.
Hi BigSully, I said I would, and I did. If I said I would, and I didn't, you would say: "you didn't do what you said you would do" ;D. The stock looks attractive to me, from a fundamental standpoint.
QuoteThe author of that probably meant looking in the weekly chart.
In your copy/paste the author specifically wrote "daily" moving averages:
Quote"If a stock is under many or all of the key moving averages (20-, 50-, 100-, 200- and 250-day moving averages) ...
Quote from: soxguy on June 01, 2007, 12:40:43 PM
But isn't being counterintuitive part of this whole process? When TZOO looks bad and no one likes it,isn't that the time to buy? Just a contrarian pov.
That has been the case soxguy, as one can see at the chart below:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37558;image)
QuoteNo, just because a stock goes down, dosn't mean its a good buy.
I always look for good companies to buy when they are sold off and the business has not changed or in the wrong sector. But TZOO looks to be in a bad business model going forward and will find it harder to grow.
Bad business model? They had a net profit margin of 20.58% in Q1 2007, even though they lost money in Europe. And even though they paid 48.2% in taxes. This is the company that pays the highest tax rate I've ever seen, they should change their headquarters from NY to the Cayman Islands, the stock would double overnight ;D
Quote from: nica33 on June 01, 2007, 01:09:44 PM
Interesting discussion here.....
I'm not an expert but I think why buy a stock that it's going down and it has not bottomed yet? Doing this is almost assuring more blood for the portfolio, isn't it? You can always keep it in your watchlist and buy when the technical conditions improve. I'm not telling that the stock could not change the trend soon but it's all about probabilities.
JMHO
More blood? The Main Portfolio is up 20.28% so far in 2007 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) (a 55% annualized return), more than in the whole year of 2006 (when the strategy was almost exclusively technical), even though I made several mistakes, like buying TZOO at the top of its range, for example.
Anyway, what do you mean by "technical conditions improving"? The way I see it now, what you mean is: "why don't you wait to buy the stock at a higher price?" Lol, just kidding.
I know the trend is your friend and I respect the market. If you look at the Main Portfolio holdings, most of them have bullish charts. But why always give more weight to technical analysis than to fundamental analysis? Moreover, TZOO's chart is one of those where the technical analyst, buying when the trend was bullish and selling when the trend was bearish, was buying near the highs and selling near the lows. This is because the stock has been stuck in a long term trading range, between roughly $25 and $40. I believe I'm buying near the bottom of the trading range of this stock.
I have a book, one of the first ones I read about the stock market, that says the following about moving averages:
«Médias móveis funcionam muito bem em acções em tendência. Em mercados laterais deveriam antes chamar-se merdas móveis» hahaha
Translation: "Moving averages work very well in trending stocks. In lateral stocks they should be called shitty averages instead" (it works better in Portuguese).
Ok, going back to TZOO. Company pays a lot of taxes. Still earns a lot of money. Business is expanding in Europe and Asia, but still losing money there. Business model should work as well in Europe and Asia as it did in the USA (perhaps even better in Europe, people travel more here), so these units will probably be profitable in the future.
Without Europe and Asia dragging down profits, instead contributing to them, TZOO may very well double the EPS it got in 2006, which was $1.01, to $2, in two years time. The Internet Information Providers (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=TZOO) industry trades at 32 times earnings. If you apply the industry average valuation to TZOO you get a $64 stock.
I'll keep holding the stock, regardless of short term technical fluctuations.
I apologize David. I didn't mean that 3SOF portfolios's performance were in red. I know that they're growing nicely. What I mean is what I've hardly learned: if a stock goes down 10 % it needs more tan that to get at the same point, how long will take to recover?....And after tat recovery when you will see gains?.....And as you say "buy the stock at higher price?" yes, sure yes, if the technicals tell me that.
I like a lot your long term fundamental approach, but I love the technicals to determine an entry price.
.....And I like this site. I've learned from you and from most of the people here a lot of things that putting them together I couldn't find'em anywhere.
QuoteNo david, I don't believe I would have come back later and said that.
I was talking in general, not specifically to you BigSully1. I've received some private messages asking when would I buy back TZOO, since I said I would get back to it when I sold it.
The current time and price seems like a nice time to buy in my view, at the long term support area of $25 - $26.
QuoteAll I'm wondering about is how weak the stock is still behaving with the market making new highs. And the gap below 25 appears ominous to me. I prefer to wait. But you will probably be right, if not in the ST, at least eventually.
Yes, not behaving well in the short term. Not only because the general market is high and the stock is low, but also because there were good news out and the stock went down anyway:
• Travelzoo Canada Stimulates Demand for 130 Leading Travel Companies (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070604/nym132.html?.v=77)
PR Newswire (Mon 11:52am)
But since we know insiders are not selling and the company isn't diluting shareholder's value (in fact, it has been buying back shares aggressively), my guess is this is one of those strange bottoms, when everybody loses hope, because the stock doesn't go up, not even on what appears to be good news. Or else, bears are right and TZOO will just keep trending down.
QuoteYou ask, what does all this mean and how does it help Travelzoo? Well, Travelzoo has positioned itself perfectly, they cater to both the product suppliers (hotels, airlines, etc) and the wholesalers. Travelzoo has the perfect business model and it will benefit significantly from the smarter consumer; the product supplier (hotel, airline, etc) now advertises their own product selling direct to the consumer, the wholesaler (expedia, travelocity, etc) now has to aggressively advertise to recapture lost market share and compete with it's new competitors.
Very good point DragoAMG, it didn't occur to me that a trend like that is unfolding. There are several "middle men" in the travel/hotel industry, but TZOO sells to both, the producers and the various middle men, like priceline.com.
QuoteI apologize David. I didn't mean that 3SOF portfolios's performance were in red. I know that they're growing nicely. What I mean is what I've hardly learned: if a stock goes down 10 % it needs more tan that to get at the same point, how long will take to recover?....And after tat recovery when you will see gains?.....And as you say "buy the stock at higher price?" yes, sure yes, if the technicals tell me that.
There are several stocks in the Main Portfolio that were down 10% or more after I bought them and now I'm winning on them. It didn't take all that long. What makes you think that because you buy when the stock is already going higher, you won't be in the hole for some time, if that stock has a normal correction, for example?
Same thing when buying when the short term trend is still down (but not the long term trend, which is lateral). The stock may go down some more, but if fundamentals are attractive as I believe they are, soon I'll be in the green.
QuoteI like a lot your long term fundamental approach, but I love the technicals to determine an entry price.
Technical analysis is based on an extrapolation of past behavior. If a stock has been going higher, it is supposed to continue that way. Same thing if it has been going lower. And same thing if it has been in a long term trading range. Historically the $25 - $26 area has been a nice entry point, so technically this is now a nice entry point, I'm buying at the bottom of the trading range. Of course, if the stock breaks the trading range on the downside by a considerable margin ... well, if that happens I'll probably admit I was wrong, the market is the one to say if I'm right or wrong, not my personal view of the fundamentals.
Quote.....And I like this site. I've learned from you and from most of the people here a lot of things that putting them together I couldn't find'em anywhere.
Thanks for your nice words nica33 :) I've learned a lot from you too and hopefully will keep learning. I enjoy learning from other's experiences, not just my own, I believe I'll learn faster this way.
Going back to TZOO, the stock touched the bottom of the range at $25.34, and it closed just barely above it. I see good value in this area and I don't expect the stock to fall much further - it should start rising soon. I'll keep holding TZOO.
David Technically this stock is very attractive , and it's very important to finish this week above 25.25 .. But if it close below 25.25 by friday then it's going to be bad for this stock..
I think you should wait until friday if you are going to buy it to make sure you got in at the right price and time :)
Quote from: Garoh on June 05, 2007, 09:31:47 AM
David Technically this stock is very attractive , and it's very important to finish this week above 25.25 .. But if it close below 25.25 by friday then it's going to be bad for this stock..
I think you should wait until friday if you are going to buy it to make sure you got in at the right price and time :)
Hi Garoh, thanks for the suggestion, but I already bought at $26.01, as you can see at the Main Portfolio homepage (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
I don't like to put things in those terms, like thinking that one day or a minor technical break could define the long term future for a stock. I don't like to think that way because it isn't true, only in our minds. I've seen hundreds of long term charts and I see that many times reversal points happen when least expected in terms of technical analysis.
Fundamentally I see value in TZOO at this point. In 2006 the company made $1.01, so the trailing earnings multiple is 25. The industry average is 32.3 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=tzoo). Analysts expect the company to make $1.11 in 2007, so the forward earnings multiple is 23.
This doesn't seem all that cheap, but that's because it doesn't consider the gross and net profit margin the company has, which are much higher than the industry average. If TZOO is able to turnaround its European business into a profitable operation (I don't see why not), EPS will be a lot higher than analysts forecast, hence the discount to the industry peers will be deeper.
Technically the stock rose yesterday, for the first time in 6 days, after touching the medium term support. Maybe we'll get a bounce here, but I'll keep holding TZOO for long term fundamental reasons.
Quote from: bjc on June 01, 2007, 02:52:31 PM
I know David doesn't worry about liquidity anymore, but EBIX is INCREDIBLY illiquid. Those big volume days were still only about 40 or 50 thousand shares. Under 6k traded today. I guess this may not matter, but it's just something to consider. If it became a 3sof pick, it would easily move a few points I think.
up 4% today
Quoteup 4% today
EBIX looks good yukiii, but this is TZOO's thread. I didn't see you talking when TCHC gapped down 50% ... it's easy when you just talk about the stocks that go up, or talk about the past : "buying at $15 David? I bought at $3, selling now".
Again, do you want to have your own portfolio here at 3Stocks? You're disturbing my work.
As for TZOO, the stock traded below the medium term support level, but ended down just slightly, at $25.5. I see a bounce coming, but more importantly, I see a very profitable business model to own for the long term.
I'll keep holding TZOO.
If we read TZOO's earnings press release, we'll see that the company continues to grow, and it was only less profitable because of the recent investments it made that are still losing money and higher taxes:
• Travelzoo Reports First Quarter 2007 Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070424/20070424006405.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue, Apr 24)
Over the medium term, instead of $1 or so EPS, TZOO will probably earn $2 or so. And instead of being a $25 stock, it will then be a $50 stock. This is the way I see the company.
And it's not a small cut of the 2006 low level of $25.34 that is going to change my view. I'll keep holding TZOO.
the chart seems ugly....i hope it does go to twenty...why not enter in a uptrend...i dont get it
Quote from: ket1390 on June 09, 2007, 01:51:48 PM
the chart seems ugly....i hope it does go to twenty...why not enter in a uptrend...i dont get it
Perhaps if you would take the effort to read what I've been writing you would get it. But of course, it is easier to draw a line in a chart and think you're going to be very successful as an investor over the years using that kind of simplistic strategy. I've read many books on successful investors. Not even one was a pure technician and most of them don't even look at charts.
This doesn't mean I was right about buying TZOO at $39. Of course I was dead wrong. And I can be wrong again here buying at $26, time will tell.
But this stock won't go up or down, over the next several quarters, because of what the chart says now. The chart knows nothing about the future, as one can see in this stock's past. For all I care, if the tax rate goes down from 48% to say, 40% in the second quarter TZOO will beat expectations by a wide margin and the stock will gap up 20% just as easily as it gapped down 20% when it missed expectations in 1st quarter 2007.
hehe, I always knew how fundamentalists could be boring, but now I know what it is to be a fundamentalist not understood by the chart readers. Perhaps the best course of action is to have an open mind to the other's ideas. So, let's talk technical analysis:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37858;image)
The stock has been trading roughly between $25 and $40 for the past year or so. There are huge gaps to be closed, both below the current price and above the current market price. I don't know which one will be closed first, but the history of this chart is for the stock to continue trading within its lateral trading channel.
Now fundamentally. For example, TZOO is a better business than PCLN, since its net profit margin is much higher, and yet PCLN is trading at 30 times 2006 earnings and TZOO at 25 times 2006 earnings.
I believe TZOO's revenues may grow 23% a year for the next three years, given the company's international expansion. I believe net profit margin will expand from the current 24% to 30%, when the company turns the European business profitable, probably in 2008. And I believe that given this TZOO will trade at the Internet Information Providers industry average valuation of 31 times earnings (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TZOO&portfolio=main). If this happens, TZOO will be an $87.32 stock in early 2010, and this is a fact (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TZOO&portfolio=main).
One can draw all the lines he wants on a stock chart, but fundamentals, not technicals, will command the price of the stock over the long term.
I'll keep holding TZOO.
Nothing new on TZOO, just keep holding it.
If she manages to hold at those levels, I'm in.
David, don't you think that after this blood, she will need to consolidate at 25$ for a while?
Quote from: Dracull on June 12, 2007, 06:46:27 AM
If she manages to hold at those levels, I'm in.
David, don't you think that after this blood, she will need to consolidate at 25$ for a while?
Yes, there's no catalyst to move it sharply higher from here. But a catalyst may happen anytime, and TZOO moves extremely fast with huge gaps (well, I guess most people here know this story fairly well :-\).
TZOO has been launching press releases about Canada, but what would certainly spark investors interest would be news about how's Europe going. Because that's from where the growth and the losses are coming:
«Europe business segment revenue grew 128% year-over-year to $1.3 million. Europe reported an operating loss of $683,000, compared to an operating loss of $460,000 in the prior year period and an operating loss of $356,000 in the prior quarter. The $327,000 increase in the operating loss from the prior quarter was primarily attributable to increased subscriber acquisition expenses in Germany and the U.K. Travelzoo began operations in the U.K. in May 2005. In September 2006, Travelzoo launched its Top 20 e-mail newsletter in Germany.»
I think that management increased subscriber acquisition expenses because it sees return for that spending/investment, that is, it sees strong demand for its services in Europe.
I'll keep holding TZOO.
Today when I was going to check www.travelzoo.com I got the following message:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37969;image)
Of the company's 4 business units, only one, the US, is profitable. All other three are losing money. Now, the US unit was also unprofitable when it started in 2001. But since then, it has been growing nicely and becoming more and more profitable, with EPS rising from $0.04 in 2002 to $0.45 in 2005 and $1.01 in 2006.
I guess that since the business model worked so well in the US, it will probably work well in Canada, UK and Germany, don't you think?
If this happens, coupled with some more US growth, probably the company will double its revenues and profits. The stock price should double too.
Recently the company also started operations in Asia.
There's no risk of dilution here, since TZOO has even been buying back shares in an aggressive mode and currently has $39 M in cash.
I wonder why TZOO pays so much in income taxes, in Q1 2007 the tax rate was 48.2%. They should base their company not in New York, but in Ireland for example, since income taxes there are just 10%. TZOO is the company that pays the highest taxes I've ever seen, they should do something about it. The change of the company's location to a lower taxation country would increase its value substantially. A lot of this company's work goes to the IRS, instead of shareholders. Perhaps I'm going to write the company asking why they pay these very high taxes and why not try to change things.
I'll keep holding TZOO.
We've had a bit of a bounce yesterday on TZOO, but nothing significant from a technical standpoint. Fundamentally everything is the same as we've been discussing. A "weaker than expected quarter" doesn't mean all that much for the company's future in my view. I wish I bought TZOO here for the first time, but no, I bought it quite high and suffered.
I guess something like this may happen to any stock and to any trader and one needs to be prepared for it. That's why I have this rule of needing to hold 15 different stocks to be full invested.
I'll keep holding TZOO.
According to Standard & Poor's
"We have a neetral fundamental outlook on the Internet Software & Services sub-industry. Although we believe that growth opportunities are considerable for this sub-industry and its companies, we think competition is significant and increasing, with online bellwethers, traditional companies, and Internet start-ups all trying to gain market share. As a result, aggressive associated investment by the sub-industry constituents is somewhat restraining upside to their fianncial results and guidance, in our opinion...
Year to date through May 18th, the internet Software & Services index rose 7.3% versus a 7.7% increase in the S&P 1500. In 2006, the indes fell 18.6%, notably underperforming the 13.3% gain posted by the S&P 1500...
Wall Street Consensus Opinion HOLD...
For fiscal year 2007, analysts estimate that TZOO will arn $1.11. For the 1st quarter of fiscal yar 2007, TZOO announced earnings per share of $0.25, representing 23% of the total annual estimate. For fiscal year 2008, analysts estimate that TZOO's earnings per share will grow by 23% to 1.36."
QuoteFor fiscal year 2007, analysts estimate that TZOO will arn $1.11. For the 1st quarter of fiscal yar 2007, TZOO announced earnings per share of $0.25, representing 23% of the total annual estimate. For fiscal year 2008, analysts estimate that TZOO's earnings per share will grow by 23% to 1.36."
Thanks for this comment on TZOO pinoleropuro :)
We've had a bit of a bounce today, I wonder if it is the start of something meaningful ... I'll keep holding TZOO.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 18, 2007, 05:22:08 PM
QuoteFor fiscal year 2007, analysts estimate that TZOO will arn $1.11. For the 1st quarter of fiscal yar 2007, TZOO announced earnings per share of $0.25, representing 23% of the total annual estimate. For fiscal year 2008, analysts estimate that TZOO's earnings per share will grow by 23% to 1.36."
Thanks for this comment on TZOO pinoleropuro :)
We've had a bit of a bounce today, I wonder if it is the start of something meaningful ... I'll keep holding TZOO.
yes David TZOO now is very very bullish the chart looks great now and today is a sign of a good buying chance ...
Now I can see first target is $35 I added more today for a quick 10% to 15% profit ;D
Quoteyes David TZOO now is very very bullish the chart looks great now and today is a sign of a good buying chance ...
Now I can see first target is $35 I added more today for a quick 10% to 15% profit ;D
It's amazing the way you can get a clue for the future by the way a stock acts now. I guess that's because you've seen many charts in the past, and probably you've seen some that looked like TZOO's chart before having a meaningful rebound. I wish you're right Garoh.
Over the longer term, one of the main trends going on in the world right now is that people travel more and have more vacations and more money to spend on vacations. There's more people with some buying power too. A decade ago no Russian tourist would ever come to Portugal. Now there are plenty of them, it's incredible.
The internet and globalization make people meet more people from other parts of the world and travel to those parts of the world to meet the new people in person. Also, businesses from different countries talk and meet more.
TZOO is at the center of all this, and should benefit immensely going forward. There's no historical dilution whatsoever, in fact, the company has been buying back shares, so you know the value of the business is reflected by the share price. I don't have doubts that the value of the business will increase, and that the share price will rise accordingly. But it will take time, maybe years. I have time. I'll keep holding TZOO.
TZOO is moving ;D
David, even though I didn't say much lately, I have been watching you intensely ;) I am glad that you showed remarkable calmness and strength during the latest portfolio slump, the quality of leadership we can all appreciate.
You are doing a much tougher job than those fund managers. They "hide" behind their investors while every one of your moves is scrutinized heavily by people in here. It takes a superman to remain calm and focused and not let emotion take over in a situation like this. This was not the first time, yet I can say that you grew a lot closer to that "superman" status ;) (Well, except for that you almost sold SILC...)
QuoteTZOO is moving ;D
Yes, nice rally yesterday. Fizzled a bit at the end because the stock faces some technical challenges, since the technical trend, at least for now, remains bearish.
QuoteDavid, even though I didn't say much lately, I have been watching you intensely ;)
I know, I know, I see when you're online. And you're following my work at the Video Portfolio too, I hope you got some of those picks :)
QuoteI am glad that you showed remarkable calmness and strength during the latest portfolio slump, the quality of leadership we can all appreciate.
Thanks for the nice words. I'm confident in what I'm doing (confident, but humble and open to admit being wrong), so I guess that gives me some more calm.
QuoteYou are doing a much tougher job than those fund managers. They "hide" behind their investors while every one of your moves is scrutinized heavily by people in here. It takes a superman to remain calm and focused and not let emotion take over in a situation like this. This was not the first time, yet I can say that you grew a lot closer to that "superman" status ;) (Well, except for that you almost sold SILC...)
hehehe, yes, it's a tough job, at least when one does it honestly as I do, because no one is always right, or knows everything. It would be easier to admit mistakes if nobody else knew, than to come here and do it publicly. I believe that many fund managers managing hundreds of millions of dollars don't have the same preparation as I do, they didn't put as much of their lives and passion into this business as I did. I have not just my experience but the combined experience of all the people that were kind enough to share it with me.
Yet, I feel I need to learn a lot more. Everyday I feel like a child, thinking: "how come I don't know that?"
Anyway, enough about me, let me also say that you're the strongest hand and subscriber I've ever had. You were the first person I ever heard saying you think it would be great to earn 20% a year, on average, investing in stocks. Yet, Warren Buffet, the World's greatest investor, ever, did just a bit more than that, roughly 22% a year. You understand how results compound and the importance of time. Also, investing from the standpoint of the business, not of the stock.
So thank you for your continuous support!
Coming back to TZOO, we had a rally, that seems like the start of a rounding bottom. Time will tell. Long term fundamentals are very attractive. I'll keep holding TZOO.
I did. In fact I bought all of them as soon as you recommended over there. :D You know I wished that your portfolio to have 25 stocks, so now it is getting closer >:D
You gave me too much credit ... let's just say the whole experience here is for us both to get our hands stronger, much stronger than before. ;)
Quote from: David Randolph on June 21, 2007, 08:18:12 AM
I know, I know, I see when you're online. And you're following my work at the Video Portfolio too, I hope you got some of those picks :)
Anyway, enough about me, let me also say that you're the strongest hand and subscriber I've ever had. You were the first person I ever heard saying you think it would be great to earn 20% a year, on average, investing in stocks. Yet, Warren Buffet, the World's greatest investor, ever, did just a bit more than that, roughly 22% a year. You understand how results compound and the importance of time. Also, investing from the standpoint of the business, not of the stock.
QuoteI did. In fact I bought all of them as soon as you recommended over there. :D
That's great because the Video Portfolio (http://www.stocksonvideo.com/index.php) is already up 11.83%. I always start very well. Will try to remain on top.
QuoteYou know I wished that your portfolio to have 25 stocks, so now it is getting closer >:D
Yes, the idea is to expand the Video Portfolio to 10 different holdings by the end of 2007.
QuoteYou gave me too much credit ... let's just say the whole experience here is for us both to get our hands stronger, much stronger than before. ;)
Yes, that should be the way. Initially I thought that I should study stocks much more deeply before the initial purchase to have stronger hands. But as I learn more I guess what's really needed is to study many, many different stocks, to make sure that we're holding the best of them. The buying reason usually stands on the surface ... if it is too hidden, it probably doesn't exist, besides our imagination.
If the buying reason stands on the surface, probably we didn't see it because ... we didn't look, there are too many stocks outthere for a human to keep track of them all from a fundamental standpoint. But the more, the better.
As for TZOO, another positive day. The long term fundamentals of the business and the sector seems great. Working as a marketing agent for travel agencies, airlines, hotels, rent-a-car companies, etc. Expanding a successful business model in the US to Canada, Europe and Asia. It should work. It will probably work, after the initial costly development process.
I'll keep holding TZOO.
Priceline and Europe.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/070621/tech01.html?.v=1
Quote from: BigSully1 on June 22, 2007, 05:48:23 PM
Priceline and Europe.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/070621/tech01.html?.v=1
Thanks for the article BigSully1, PCLN is growing a lot in Europe. TZOO's European operations are growing even faster (128%), but from a much smaller base.
My investment in TZOO is based on their European and Asian initiatives becoming as profitable as the company's US operations as time goes by, at least doubling the overall company's profits and price per share.
I'll continue holding TZOO.
No news out for TZOO and no new technical developments. My trading plan remains the same: HOLD.
TZOO came off 0.58%, in line with the general market. Last week's rally fizzled as the stock needs some more consolidation around current levels. There were no news out. I'll keep holding TZOO.
TZOO rebounded a bit, in line with the general market. I took a look at their German website (http://de.travelzoo.com/), I hope it gets some traction, because we really need Europe to grow and show some profits for TZOO to rise meaningfully.
Perhaps not right at this quarter, but the next?
I'll keep holding TZOO.
We'll probably have to wait a couple of quarters to see a fundamental change in TZOO's European business and therefore the stock price in a meaningful way. But between now and then it is comforting to know the company is actively buying back shares in the open market and insiders own 84% of the company, at least according to this Motley Fool article:
Why This Stock Is a Winner (http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2007/06/15/why-this-stock-is-a-winner.aspx)
I'll continue holding TZOO.
TZOO is definitely looking good... I'm glad you're back in this one David. I never sold... bought in the low 28 range.
Quote from: DragonAMG on July 05, 2007, 10:46:08 PM
TZOO is definitely looking good... I'm glad you're back in this one David. I never sold... bought in the low 28 range.
Well, it closed above the 50 days SMA for the first time since that horrible gap down.
The following comes as a risk in the company's 10-Q forms:
«
We are controlled by a principal stockholder.Ralph Bartel, who founded Travelzoo and who is our Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive Officer, is our largest stockholder, holding beneficially, as of May 1, 2007, approximately 50.2% of our outstanding shares with options to increase his percentage ownership to 56.4% on a fully-diluted basis. Through his share ownership, he is in a position to control Travelzoo and to elect our entire board of directors.»
But I don't see the CEO owning more than half of the company as a risk, but as an insurance that management's interests are aligned with ours.
However, this doesn't necessarily mean we'll make money out of this TZOO investment, of course.
Most of the company's clients are online travel agencies, and those are doing very well in the marketplace. I expect them to spend some more money on TZOO.
The basic premise of this investment is: Europe and Asia will be as profitable as the US over the long term and that should triple the company's value.
I'll patiently continue holding TZOO.
TZOO closed just above the 50 days SMA but still didn't make it to cross above the short term descending trendline on the chart below. Tomorrow this trendline will be standing at $27.07.
Fundamentally I know I'll have to be patient with TZOO. I'll continue holding the stock.
Awesome technology adding value to TZOO:
http://www.travelzoo.com/media/
(check the video)
Stock is breaking out over the intraday, I hope it sticks.
It will break to new prices
Quote from: Garoh on July 09, 2007, 10:04:19 AM
It will break to new prices
Thanks for your feeling of the short term situation Garoh :)
After taking out the 50 days SMA, TZOO closed above its short term descending trendline. But there's another ascending resistance that needs to be surpassed, which for today will be standing at $27.55 (TZOO closed at $27.53 yesterday).
We'll see what happens next.
Fundamentally, TZOO proved why it is a good idea to own a company where the CEO has a 50% plus interest. You know the man will be working to improve results, to explore new areas of revenue and value enhancement. That's what seems to be happening with yesterday's news:
• Travelzoo Unveils World's First Interactive Advertising Campaign in an Airport (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070709/nym089.html?.v=75)
PR Newswire (Mon 9:38am)
I wonder which company helped TZOO make this wonderful advertising campaign.
I guess this opens a new door for TZOO in the US market. I expect it to help increase demand for TZOO's advertising space.
I'll keep holding TZOO.
TZOO's chart is starting to get constructive, with the stock closing above its short term technical barriers.
I'll continue holding TZOO.
Wow, TZOO's chart really seems to be turning the corner. I guess the following press release ...
• Travelzoo Unveils World's First Interactive Advertising Campaign in an Airport (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070709/nym089.html?.v=75)
PR Newswire (Mon, Jul 9)
... is making investors think that TZOO is an innovative company and that its USA business unit still has a lot to grow. US revenue growth in Q1 2007 vs Q1 2006 was just 12.53% and the market was discounting that type of "not so great" growth for the American unit. With just Europe and Asia (in the future) pushing strong growth, because these units are still unprofitable and relatively small, it wasn't enough to push shares higher over the short term.
But I think the market got the feeling, from that news release, that maybe US revenues will pick up momentum again, due to innovation. Perhaps not right here in Q2 2007 (which ended before the news), but in Q3?
I'll keep holding TZOO.
Quote from: Garoh on June 18, 2007, 05:59:41 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on June 18, 2007, 05:22:08 PM
QuoteFor fiscal year 2007, analysts estimate that TZOO will arn $1.11. For the 1st quarter of fiscal yar 2007, TZOO announced earnings per share of $0.25, representing 23% of the total annual estimate. For fiscal year 2008, analysts estimate that TZOO's earnings per share will grow by 23% to 1.36."
Thanks for this comment on TZOO pinoleropuro :)
We've had a bit of a bounce today, I wonder if it is the start of something meaningful ... I'll keep holding TZOO.
yes David TZOO now is very very bullish the chart looks great now and today is a sign of a good buying chance ...
Now I can see first target is $35 I added more today for a quick 10% to 15% profit ;D
this was in June 19 when it was at 25.73 ....
It even look better now especially on weekly chart ..... David you'er doing great work ;)
Quotethis was in June 19 when it was at 25.73 ....
It even look better now especially on weekly chart ..... David you'er doing great work ;)
Thanks Garoh :)
Yes, your call was right on the money, congrats and applaud. The question now is: are you going to take your 10-15% short term profit?
Quote from: David Randolph on July 11, 2007, 07:31:01 PM
Quotethis was in June 19 when it was at 25.73 ....
It even look better now especially on weekly chart ..... David you'er doing great work ;)
Thanks Garoh :)
Yes, your call was right on the money, congrats and applaud. The question now is: are you going to take your 10-15% short term profit?
Good question David :)
look at my messege in June 19 .... I said that I added more for a quick 10 to 15% profits ... that means I already had the stock but I added some more for short term trading ..
But Now I see better chart at least for the next one or 2 weeks ;)
It's a good stock to have
QuoteGood question David :)
look at my messege in June 19 .... I said that I added more for a quick 10 to 15% profits ... that means I already had the stock but I added some more for short term trading ..
But Now I see better chart at least for the next one or 2 weeks ;)
It's a good stock to have
Thanks for the reply Garoh :)
Sometimes I'm too slow to see things ... immediately when I saw that TZOO's movie (http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.875ccd964e7ca2e3cc4fe6ca4f9fa9dd6bf1681de42224ed99e3805962d5c96e), I should have asked: "but, which company is helping TZOO do this, which has this technology, who is Immersion?"
But I didn't. Immersion (IMMR) is already up 10% since the TZOO's news. But there's a lot more to it, I'll check it out in another thread.
As for TZOO, nothing new, I'll keep holding the stock.
(no chart available today)
Press Release Source: Travelzoo
Travelzoo Announces Business Initiatives in France, Hong Kong, and Japan
Friday July 13, 10:40 am ET
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Travelzoo (NASDAQ:TZOO - News), a global Internet media company, today announced new business initiatives in France, Hong Kong, and Japan. Travelzoo France officially launched its business this week with the publication of its first Top 20(TM) list. In June, Travelzoo's Hong Kong office began publishing a Top 20(TM) list in Chinese for Hong Kong. On September 1, Travelzoo will open an office in Tokyo, Japan.
"We are continuing to aggressively implement our strategy of turning Travelzoo into a global media brand," said Ralph Bartel, chairman and chief executive officer, Travelzoo. "While we expect these initiatives to have a material negative impact on our earnings in 2007 and 2008, due to significant expenses related to subscriber marketing campaigns in new markets and operating losses during the start-up phase, we believe that it is an attractive strategy for Travelzoo in the long-term. As a global organization we are able to source the very best travel deals wherever they occur, research and review them with local expertise, and publish them to our more than 11 million subscribers."
In March, Travelzoo opened an office in France, followed by Hong Kong in April, both employing local staff. On September 1, Travelzoo will open an office in Tokyo.
In 2005 Travelzoo launched its business in the U.K., followed by the launch of its business in Canada and in Germany in 2006.
Does this mean it's back to the low 20's or worse? We'll see.
Tzoo sees costs of moves hurting 2007 and 2008 Earnings ???
This is making the stock go down
I guess long term it won't matter,but the short term pain is real.
yeah well, how short is short term? 'cuz I've had it since April after the big drop and it seems to me it just keeps dropping and its making me impatient.
>:( ???. Especially since I only have TZOO and CIMT and I am down on both.
since I've had them.
its starting to feel more like this short term wants to turn into a short term long term.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 13, 2007, 04:25:22 PM
yeah well, how short is short term? 'cuz I've had it since April after the big drop and it seems to me it just keeps dropping and its making me impatient.
>:( ???. Especially since I only have TZOO and CIMT and I am down on both.
since I've had them.
its starting to feel more like this short term wants to turn into a short term long term.
And why do you have just TZOO and CIMT?
You're impatient, and yet you picked the two where patience is most needed, because they're not in uptrends. Perhaps that's the reason why you bought specifically these two, because they were going down, right?
Anyway, because you're not diversified enough you're starting to get emotional about stocks, and you know that's not the right course of action for you to take. You're probably watching every tick on those two stocks, always thinking and wondering what will happen next, feeling just a bit more sad when they go down, and a bit more relieved when they go up a bit.
I know how it feels, I've done that in the past too. Brrr, I just don't want to go through that pain again, so let me leave it alone and tell you to reconsider diversifying your investments a bit more.
As for TZOO, there were positive news out:
• Travelzoo Announces Business Initiatives in France, Hong Kong, and Japan (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070713/20070713005324.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri 10:40am)
The CEO of TZOO, which owns 56% of the shares outstanding, is pursuing his global expansion plan. He knows the business better than anyone else, and goes this way, because he thinks it is the best way to increase long term shareholder's value.
Yet, the market, little and big investors, are impatient, they want profits growing every quarter in a linear way so they can feel safe. And, because the path to a higher long term value has some short term pain, investors sold their shares.
Considering my valuation model, which calls for a share price of $87.32 three years from now (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TZOO&portfolio=main), it was reinforced by yesterday's news.
I'm more certain now that the company will achieve 23% revenue CAGR and 30% net profit margin in 2009 than what I was before these expansion plans.
Or, do you think the owner of 56% of the shares is doing this because he likes to lose money?
I'll continue holding TZOO for the long term and I expect the Main Portfolio to benefit immensely from TZOO over the long run. Now for the short term, if TZOO goes down to say, $20, some subscribers of the 3 SOF Premium service will cancel the service, as it always happens when one stock or another goes down, but I personally don't care about that, since I know this is the right course of action to take.
(no chart available for TZOO today, only on Tuesday I'll have my Metastock software working properly).
Thank you David. :-[
I am a newbie and I don't have much capital so if I diversify even with large earnings it wouldn't amount to much of anything. so I was trying to do a 33%, 33%, 33% diversification.
again because I saw these going down I figured based on the fundamentals and charts that I would be ok when these decided to come up.
I am trying to learn by reading your forum on a daily basis because I am pretty oblivious to all this market stuff.
I really do appreciate all your hard work. its just that for a beginner like my self its hard for me to really choose the right one for me.
My 401k is up 15% for the year so far yet I am down almost 20% for the year. :'(
I guess in my learning its turning into an expensive lesson for me.
I am going to try to hold off my emotions but it is hard to see them go down.
so please bare with me as I try to follow your lead.
Thanks again.
*DJ TravelZoo Cut To Neutral From Buy At First Albany >TZOO
.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 16, 2007 07:22 ET (11:22 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 07 22 AM EDT 07-16-07
**Brought to you by Scottrader, a product of Scottrade More pain I guess.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 14, 2007, 10:40:15 AM
Thank you David. :-[
I am a newbie and I don't have much capital so if I diversify even with large earnings it wouldn't amount to much of anything. so I was trying to do a 33%, 33%, 33% diversification.
again because I saw these going down I figured based on the fundamentals and charts that I would be ok when these decided to come up.
I am trying to learn by reading your forum on a daily basis because I am pretty oblivious to all this market stuff.
I really do appreciate all your hard work. its just that for a beginner like my self its hard for me to really choose the right one for me.
My 401k is up 15% for the year so far yet I am down almost 20% for the year. :'(
I guess in my learning its turning into an expensive lesson for me.
I am going to try to hold off my emotions but it is hard to see them go down.
so please bare with me as I try to follow your lead.
Thanks again.
Hi pinoleropuro, thanks for sharing your thoughts :)
You say:
1)
QuoteI am a newbie and I don't have much capital so if I diversify even with large earnings it wouldn't amount to much of anything.
2)
QuoteI guess in my learning its turning into an expensive lesson for me.
You're not investing much capital, yet, the learning process seems quite expensive to you. Perhaps you're too risk averse, or else you're investing with money you absolutely can't afford to lose.
That's always a setup for stress and anxiety. I've been in that situation in the past too and I know how it feels.
I guess that after what happened with TZOO yesterday you're not feeling better :-\
But I urge you to put things in perspective. For example, once I've lost $100,000 in just a bit more than a month, with $50,000 going in the first week. It was all I had. After that I was depressed for over a year ... we'll talk some more, but I'm really late for today's updates, so I have to move on.
TZOO has been falling because of an analyst downgrade:
TZOO: First Albany Cuts to Neutral from Buy; Analyst Notes (http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.8c1f8cf65b12638020598eaaafd040401bf1cd5aae2b10aa78e74cf80c100838)
They don't like the company's expansion plans. I like them, over the long term they'll probably increase the company's profitability.
Now everybody is discounting Q2 earnings will be weak, that seems priced in already. I know the chart is breaking down, and that means I'll have to be very patient with TZOO, the way its CEO is, as he holds 56% of the company.
I'll continue holding TZOO.
Travelzoo Wants to See the World
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz July 17, 2007
1
Recommendation
After years of helping penny-pinchers with getaways to exotic locations, travel publisher Travelzoo (Nasdaq: TZOO) wants to get away and see new people too. The company announced an ambitious expansion plan on Friday, with new initiatives in Hong Kong, France, and Japan. However, watching the stock shed 13% of its value in the two days since issuing the press release makes one wonder if Travelzoo's globetrotting pursuits might actually be a cover for an earnings warning.
The company pulled no punches in the release.
"While we expect these initiatives to have a material negative impact on our earnings in 2007 and 2008, due to significant expenses related to subscriber marketing campaigns in new markets and operating losses during the start-up phase, we believe that it is an attractive strategy for Travelzoo in the long term," CEO Ralph Bartel noted in the announcement.
Sure, it costs money to set up camp in new territories. However, not all of the overseas expansion plans were new. Travelzoo issued a press release when the office in France opened in March. A month later, it revealed its entry into Hong Kong, a service that was eventually launched last month.
Japan is new. The office will open in two months. Unfortunately, near-sighted investors get spooked by terms like "material negative impact" and "significant expenses" when they are buying into a high-margin company.
Growing its reach overseas is important. The company launched its site in the United Kingdom two years ago. It followed that with steps into Canada and Germany last year. However, the company's clever concept -- packaging sponsored travel bargains in its weekly "Top 20" email -- remains mostly a domestic phenomenon. Through the end of March, Travelzoo has amassed a mailing list of 10.6 million willing North American recipients. The free subscribers totaled less than 0.8 million in Europe.
The moat is also questionable. It is way too easy for a rival to copy the Travelzoo playbook. Smaller sites like Sherman's Travel Top 25 are giving it a go, and even Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN) rolled out a slightly similar PriceBreakers feature earlier this year.
Sure, it may be a conflict of interest for a mainstream portal like Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE) or Travelocity to follow suit, but there's really nothing to stop popular Web portals like Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) or Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) from diving in if they feel there is more money to be made that way.
By casting its warning net so far -- a "material negative impact" in 2008 seems so far away -- Travelzoo is spooking away investors that remember when the company's stock was on fire as one of the biggest gainers of 2004. Then again, 2004 also seems pretty far away these days.
Bon voyage, Travelzoo.
This doesn't help much. Oh well,it's only money.
In my opinion.... this is pure manipulation. I think that Bartel is actually trying to lower the price of this stock so that he can load up and beat estimates which would cause this stock to skyrocket.
Just my 2 cents.
I am holding it.
Quote from: DragonAMG on July 17, 2007, 01:57:09 PM
In my opinion.... this is pure manipulation. I think that Bartel is actually trying to lower the price of this stock so that he can load up and beat estimates which would cause this stock to skyrocket.
Just my 2 cents.
I am holding it.
I hope you're right. As always,we'll see.
Quote from: soxguy on July 17, 2007, 02:14:15 PM
I hope you're right. As always,we'll see.
;D ;D ;D I hope I'm right too....
The author of the article soxguy brought us sure has a point, but it is just another way of saying: "oopps, perhaps the next quarter won't be good, forget about the long term value creation".
If TZOO's management wanted, they could rise EPS imediatelly. They would just shut down their entire international effort and post a $0.3 or more EPS. That way the stock would rise a good 30 or 40% over the short term, but not over the long term, because there wouldn't be investments and ways to grow the business.
TZOO has been a very tough ride, but I'll keep on holding and focusing on the company's EPS three years from now, when all international operations will probably be profitable.
Travelzoo (TZOO): Time for a Reality Check
First Albany downgraded shares of Travelzoo (NASDAQ: TZOO) to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' today and their shares are down 7% and dropping. With shares trading just under $25, this stock is starting to look more appealing.
The Masters think TZOO shares could go even lower now that it expects its earnings in 2007 and 2008 to be hurt by new business initiatives in France, Hong Kong and Japan.
Say what you will about this web 2.0 company but Travelzoo has only 80 or so employees and revenue has grown an average rate of 57% for the past three years. Let Wall Street continue to hate the stock, we'll stand on the sidelines and once it goes down for the count, it will be time to buy. These guys still managed to pull in $50.7 million in 2005 and $69.5 million in 2006. If the stock gets even lower, maybe Barry Diller will take it out or some other big money guy like Carl Icahn. This is Wall Street my fellow Masters, never say never.
I would love to see Expedia (EXPE) come in and buy up TZOO, it would be a great match with Hotwire.com and Hotels.com already under their belt. Let's see some consolidation in the online-bargain-travel sector because new travel sites that can save you money seem to pop up every two weeks - like Yapta.com (what do these guys do again that is so different?)
Look online travel companies, there are only so many websites the American consumer can remember, if you keep cranking out new sites, how in the hell do you expect us to remember them? Most of us know the one's that are most advertised.
Expedia.com (EXPE)
Priceline.com (PCLN)
Orbitz.com
blah, blah, blah...
Travelzoo, do yourself a favor, put your company up for sale, and cash out -- big time. Make your 80 employees super rich and never work again, then let everyone fight to buy your company. It's the American dream, work hard, find a niche, then sell it to the highest bidder. After it's done, you sit back and sip Mojitos poolside for the rest of your life. Or you could struggle to gain market share and grow your company in a cut throat business that will end up consolidating into a few major players in the next 5 years. Watch your revenue decline year over year, and those shares that were once worth $25 become worth $5, then $2, then OTC BB death.
Article written by: Frank Lara Jr.
Article posted on: July 16th, 2007
Do you hate us more than Jeff Mackey ? Voice your thoughts at Our Forum.
Disclaimer: The Author does not hold any position in TZOO, EXPE, or PCLN. But he's thinking about it.
Another take on TZOO.
David, the problem I see with TZOO is that you look 3 years ahead as there is little hope for the near future in this stock. Whereas the stellar performers of the portfolio deliver already today and have bright plans for the future. I agree, international expansion may bring fruits to
the table, but when it happens nobody knows. TZOO does not look attractive to investors, I guess, so many bail out. At the same time, you got 13 other stocks to worry about, so perhaps we can keep this for "3 years" or until it begins generating profits from its new operations.
Quote from: berloga on July 18, 2007, 09:32:46 AM
David, the problem I see with TZOO is that you look 3 years ahead as there is little hope for the near future in this stock. Whereas the stellar performers of the portfolio deliver already today and have bright plans for the future. I agree, international expansion may bring fruits to
the table, but when it happens nobody knows. TZOO does not look attractive to investors, I guess, so many bail out. At the same time, you got 13 other stocks to worry about, so perhaps we can keep this for "3 years" or until it begins generating profits from its new operations.
I understand what you're saying berloga. But nothing is standing in the way of TZOO's US operations growing more than expected and that way EPS would still rise, even with the company losing money in other parts of the world.
I think initiatives like the company showed the other day, with those interactive TV ads on airports, will probably add more demand to the company's advertising services.
It reminded me the business of a $2 B plus Chinese company, what was its name ... ah, Focus Media (FMCN).
We'll keep talking. I'll keep holding TZOO, despite the short term technical weakness.
Hello :)
This is going to be one of the toughest decisions in my investment career, but I'm going to take another loss on TZOO.
I know the timing is awful, that just a few days ago the Main was winning 10% on TZOO and now it is losing 10%. So you know how hard it is to take the loss now, but of course, you also know that often the hardest thing to do is also the right thing in the stock market.
There are three main reasons for my attitude:
1) Core business is retrenching
It took some investigation to see this, but I found the following in the company's 10-Q:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39130;image)
As you can see, in North America, the number of "subscribers" rose 8%, yet, page views fell 12%. I have an explanation for this, also from my experience managing the www.3stocksonfire.org small business: the e-mail doesn't work anymore as a marketing tool, at least, not the way it used to be.
Now, when one sends a bulk e-mail like TZOO does, more than half is blocked by anti-spam software (even when it's not spam) and of the ones that get to the inbox, not many people open them. Reason? Most people gets hundreds of e-mails each day.
Because less people click on the links TZOO sends by e-mail, those links will probably start being worth less. This may explain why the company is trying to get out of e-mail as its sole marketing tool and made that experience with giant plasmas in the Las Vegas airport (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070709/nym089.html?.v=75).
I think the idea is great, but it will be difficult to replace the audience the company had with the e-mail. Moreover, it costs a lot more to have plasmas displaying travel deals than sending a bulk e-mail.
2) Expansion plans and competition
Because the US business is slowing down, the company has been spending a lot of money in international initiatives, opening subsidiaries in the UK, Canada, Germany, France, Hong Kong and Japan.
Yesterday I talked to my wife about TZOO as we went for a walk, because she loves traveling so much and subscribed to TZOO's top 20 newsletter (on my invitation). I asked her what she thought about TZOO ... she said she didn't open the e-mail and that there were more appealing services here in Portugal, like one that is called www.lifecooler.com (and several others). Even a government agency has a website doing a similar service as TZOO, which is www.escapadinha.com (with ads on TV and everything else, to promote tourism in Portugal).
And, as you probably know, Portugal is (unfortunately) one of the least developed countries in the European Union. I wonder how many travel newsletters are there in Germany, France and the UK.
Also, the e-mail loss of efficiency exists in Europe as in the US.
3) Main Portfolio is losing again on TZOO
On the first trade I lost 29% on TZOO. Now I'm losing 10%, again. Clearly, the market is proving me wrong, this is more than a short term phenomenon. I've been extremely stubborn on TZOO, and the market is presenting the bill.
More than committed with TZOO I'm committed with the Main's portfolio performance. I figure that just 4 or 5 big losers can kill the performance and my goal of achieving an average annual return of at least 30%.
I already have CIMT on the "hold whatever happens camp", but I'm much more confident with that stock. I don't need another holding of this type.
It is more difficult to assume a mistake after being so strong defending the opposite view. It takes a lot of courage, in my view. I got courage, and right here and right now let me say that I was wrong and I'll sell TZOO today, taking the loss and paying the price.
Good call on TZOO, David. No reason to wait for a golden apple to fall from a tree, just climb up and pick it. You can find more stocks with strories like NVTL's, ICOC's and GSB's.
I don't comment often, but I follow your picks closely. In my opinion, your track record is exceptional. I didn't have a good feeling re TZOO, but I bought anyway. It's well worth it to me for you to have a "bad apple" or two in light of all your good choices. Keep up the good work.. it's much appreciated!
Well it looks like you'll be needing to find a new friend to replace TZOO. I ran a Worden scan to find companies with cap around or under 500m, with revenues, growing EPS, good debt to equity ratio and came up with the following (in no particular order)
TGB EGY OFI SMTX IGTE CBR ABXA CNTY EDGW MEA FLWS OMNI COGO HMIN
I still know next to nothing about fundies, so could adjust the scan if there are other criteria that are also important. Worden scans are pretty powerful in this regard.
Quote from: TraderStar on July 20, 2007, 12:00:32 PM
Well it looks like you'll be needing to find a new friend to replace TZOO. I ran a Worden scan to find companies with cap around or under 500m, with revenues, growing EPS, good debt to equity ratio and came up with the following (in no particular order)
TGB EGY OFI SMTX IGTE CBR ABXA CNTY EDGW MEA FLWS OMNI COGO HMIN
I still know next to nothing about fundies, so could adjust the scan if there are other criteria that are also important. Worden scans are pretty powerful in this regard.
Here is the replacement ASIA very nice company 100% at least soon :)
this really bytes.
I wish there could be another GOAM like the first time to try to recoup some of the lost.
I could not get into GOAM under 6 like David recomended so I didn't. Now I feel I really need another GOAM to come to the rescue.
:(
TZOO
The first Supports lines are 22,60$(not draw), 21,20$, 20,00$, 17,50$(not draw), 16,50$(2 years bottom).
The TZOO Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.
I will leave you Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread.......
Good trading to all !
Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis
BIG move, BIG volume.....
Yes BigSully1,
here is the comment of a Barrons.com Blog columnist...
September 28, 2007, 10:25 am
Travelzoo Jumps On Takeover Speculation
Posted by Eric Savitz
Travelzoo (TZOO) shares are sharply higher today, apparently driven by takeover rumors. The web site TheFlyOnTheWall.com is reporting that the stock is rising "on unconfirmed & renewed M&A chatter."
I have to say: Just who would want to buy Travelzoo is a mystery to me. The company publishes travel newsletters that consist largely of advertising. In fact, just why anyone wants to read the newsletters is kind of a mystery to me as well. Any guesses on potential buyers? And does anyone find the newsletters useful? Let me know.
Travelzoo today is up $1.89, or 9.5%, at $21.78.
Permalink | Trackback URL: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2007/09/28/travelzoo-jumps-on-takeover-speculation/trackback/
Quote from: phabrux on September 28, 2007, 12:46:22 PM
Yes BigSully1,
here is the comment of a Barrons.com Blog columnist...
September 28, 2007, 10:25 am
Travelzoo Jumps On Takeover Speculation
Posted by Eric Savitz
Travelzoo (TZOO) shares are sharply higher today, apparently driven by takeover rumors. The web site TheFlyOnTheWall.com is reporting that the stock is rising "on unconfirmed & renewed M&A chatter."
I have to say: Just who would want to buy Travelzoo is a mystery to me. The company publishes travel newsletters that consist largely of advertising. In fact, just why anyone wants to read the newsletters is kind of a mystery to me as well. Any guesses on potential buyers? And does anyone find the newsletters useful? Let me know.
Travelzoo today is up $1.89, or 9.5%, at $21.78.
Permalink | Trackback URL: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2007/09/28/travelzoo-jumps-on-takeover-speculation/trackback/
Up 19% now. Looks like it broke out of a very nice base.
TZOO's "death" came with the death of the e-mail as an advertising channel. Most people receive lots of junk e-mails, so each one of them gets less and less attention. Each has become less valuable for advertisers.
This is why TZOO has been growing less and earning less money. Also because the company is pursuing an aggressive and expensive international expansion (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/tsmfe/SIG=124cfuvuk/*http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/technet/10367768.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA), which already brought in many costs and little in revenues.
Anyway, TZOO is doing its best to show its clients proposals to more potential costumers, using other means outside of the internet:
• Photo Release -- Travelzoo Unveils the First Interactive Advertising Campaign in New York City's Grand Central Subway Station (http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/080110/134144.html)
PrimeNewswire (Thu, Jan 10)
It seems that every time they do this the stock recovers some ground, before diving again. The problem with this new approach is that it is a lot more expensive to advertise using giant and interactive TV panels in crowded spaces than it is to send a bulk e-mail. This could hurt the long term profitability of the overall business.
What was that Chinese company which owned thousands of plasmas TV's strategically located in Shangai's crowded spaces to sell as advertising space? It was FMCN. I thought it was overvalued at $72, since I sold it short at that price (obviously, didn't make any money out of it) ... it closed at $48 and change on Friday. Anyway, it could be a nice and new business model for TZOO, but FMCN sells advertising space to any interested client, not just in the tourism sector.
I guess the tough times for TZOO are not over yet, but I'll keep following the stock, I like the way management's interests are aligned with other shareholders interests.
Another poor ER
Quote from: BigSully1 on February 06, 2008, 11:36:37 AM
Another poor ER
Yep.
The stock recovered some ground since then, but the trend remains bearish. Let me copy/paste an analysis from Wedbush Morgan Securities, for example:
Travelzoo (TZOO)Q4 Earnings Miss (to Zero) on Higher International Spending: Expect More Tempered Results in 2008 Due to Focus On International Expansion; Lowering Price Target to $15
•
Q4 EPS significantly below expectations. Revenue was $19 million, compared with our
and the consensus estimates of $20 million. EPS was $0.00, much lower than our estimate of $0.16 and the consensus estimate of $0.14.
•
Earnings were negatively impacted by an operating loss of $4.0 million (nondeductible
for tax) for international investments and marketing spending.Travelzoo's European revenue grew at a fast rate this quarter, but so did its operating loss in Europe (up to $1.9 million from Q3's $1.4 million). We believe this will also be the case as it expands in Asia (which had an operating loss of $2.1 million in Q4).
•
We are lowering our 2008 estimates for revenue to $85 million from $89 million, and for EPS to $0.63 from $0.86. We are initiating our 2009 estimates for revenue of $91 million and EPS of $0.75.•
We expect uneven growth to keep Travelzoo shares range-bound. Although revenue and earnings should improve after 2008, we expect uneven performance on a quarterly basis in 2008. It is unclear if or when Travelzoo will benefit from its international investment, and we think that any financial benefits will occur after 2008.•
Maintaining our HOLD rating, but lowering our 12-month price target to $15 from $18, reflecting 20x our 2009 EPS estimate of $0.75. This multiple is in line with the company's expected earnings growth rate of 20% over the next several years. We think that the company will be challenged to grow earnings at greater than a 20% rate, given moderating growth in its core U.S. business and continuing international investments.
RISKSRisks to attainment of our share price target include slower growth due to worsening macro economic factors, future competition into outbound email travel marketing by large Internet portals, increasing subscriber acquisition costs, and international expansion issues.
RESULTS• After the market close Tuesday, Travelzoo reported its fiscal Q4 2007 results.
• Revenue was $19 million, compared with our and the consensus estimates of $20 million.
• EPS was $0.00, much lower than our estimate of $0.16 and the consensus estimate of $0.14.
• Management did not provide any financial guidance.
• We are lowering our 2008 estimates for revenue to $85 million from $89 million, and for EPS to $0.63 from $0.86.
• We are initiating our 2009 estimates for revenue of $91 million and EPS of $0.75.
Additional Financial Details on Q4 Results• Gross profit for the quarter was $18 million, compared with our forecast of $20 million.
• Gross margin for the quarter was 96.1% versus 98.5% last year. We expected gross margin of 98.0%.
• Operating expenses totaled $15.9 million versus our expectation of $15.1 million.
• Operating income was $2.5 million versus our expectation of $4.8 million.
• Net income was about breakeven vs. our expectation of $2.6 million.
• The company had 11.0 million North American subscribers, 1.4 million European subscribers, and 214,000 Asian subscribers to its newsletter (compared with 11.0 million, 1.2 million, and 43,000 last quarter respectively).
• North American SAC (subscriber acquisition cost) was $3.78 (compared with $1.56 in last year's Q4 and $3.92 in Q3) and European SAC was $5.85 (compared with $2.94 in last year's Q4 and $2.96 in Q3), and Asian SAC was $2.90 (compared with $2.23 in Q3).
• The company has recently began operations in China in October and Australia and Taiwan in December.
The company's balance sheet is solid, with $23 million in cash and no debt (compared with $23 million cash and no debt at the end of September).
ANALYSISTravelzoo reported revenue about in line with expectations, but earnings were significantly below our and the consensus estimates for the third quarter in a row. Earnings were negatively impacted by an operating loss of $4.0 million (non-deductible for tax) for international investments and marketing spending. Even with the company's reiteration of comments about its international growth having a "material negative impact" on 2007 and 2008 earnings, Q4 EPS were much lower than we expected.
North American revenue grew 6% year-over-year, down from the 23% annual rate posted in Q4 of last year and lower than the 10% in Q3. We believe that the company's North American growth rate will continue to be modest as the company's core product matures. Its European business grew 51% year-over-year, and was down from 67% sequentially from last quarter. SAC decreased in North America ($3.78 from last quarter's $3.92), but increased in Europe ($5.85 from last quarter's $2.96). The company recently started operations in Asia, and has just barely reported revenue (but did incur an operating loss of $2.1 million).
Travelzoo has been expanding rapidly in Europe over the past two years and is still in its investment and start-up phase. The company is now aiming for the Asian market and has opened up several offices throughout the region. We are beginning to question whether Travelzoo is doing the right thing by leveraging its leadership position in the U.S. travel advertising market. Its European revenue grew at a fast rate this quarter, but so did its operating loss in Europe (up to $1.9 million from Q3's $1.4 million). We believe this will also be the case as it expands in Asia. International investments are more costly than we originally expected and we note that any financial benefits will likely occur after 2008.
On the positive side, the combination of relatively stable (though weakening) macroeconomic factors and a continued healthy (though slowing) market for Internet advertising led to a solid quarter for revenue. Internet travel advertising and Internet travel company valuations remain strong, but we have near-term concerns about challenges to revenue and earnings growth given increased competition (e.g., Priceline's Pricebreakers), which may cause share price volatility.
We are lowering our 2008 estimates for revenue to $85 million from $89 million, and for EPS to $0.63 from $0.86. We are initiating our 2009 estimates for revenue of $91 million and EPS of $0.75.
We are now more concerned about earnings growth over the near-term, and revenue growth may be hampered by competition from better-capitalized competitors. As we believe investors are focused on revenue and earnings growth, we believe that slowing or volatile growth rates may keep Travelzoo shares range-bound. However, we also acknowledge that the company has the potential to grow earnings much faster than we have modeled should it moderate spending or European sales accelerate.
We are maintaining our HOLD rating, but lowering our 12-month price target to $15 from $18, reflecting 20x our 2009 EPS estimate of $0.75. This multiple is in line with the company's expected earnings growth rate of 20% over the next several years. We think that the company will be challenged to grow earnings at greater than a 20% rate, given moderating growth in its core U.S. business and continuing international investments.
My comments:
I guess that given the risks to TZOO's business model (still mostly based on e-mail marketing) a p/e multiple of 20 on a 2009 estimate is probably too much to expect (also given the current market environment).
I would like TZOO if the problems were just due to the costs associated with the international expansion, but I guess the most important problem is the less value of the e-mail as a marketing tool.
Watch this chart - BO, golden crosses are coming and 50MA nearby.
Fundamentals are also encouraging due to increasing subscribers
to several services- GLTA
Press Release Source: Travelzoo On Thursday March 3, 2011, 10:53 am EST
LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ:TZOO - News), a global Internet media company, announced today that it now has over 5 million unduplicated subscribers to its publications in Europe. In the first eight weeks of 2011, Travelzoo added 414,671 net new subscribers in Europe. This is the fastest subscriber growth rate the company has seen since it started operations in the continent in May 2005.
Chris Loughlin, CEO of Travelzoo said, "It's extremely fulfilling for all of us at Travelzoo to surpass this milestone of 5 million subscribers in Europe. Travelzoo was founded on the fundamental belief that honest recommendations about outstanding deals at top-notch businesses will attract a large and high-quality subscriber base. Surpassing the 5 million mark emboldens us and reinforces our belief that in the long run, quality leadership is key to our success."
About Travelzoo
Travelzoo Inc. is a global Internet media company. With more than 22 million subscribers in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific and 24 offices worldwide, Travelzoo® publishes deals from more than 2,000 travel and entertainment companies. Travelzoo's deal experts research, evaluate and test offers to find the best deals and confirm their true value. In Asia Pacific, Travelzoo is independently owned and operated by Travelzoo (Asia) Ltd. and Travelzoo Japan K.K. under a license agreement with Travelzoo Inc.
Thanks for the update, we shall watch!
Applaud...
Could be a topping pattern here, Head & Shoulders with a bounce to the 50-Day MA ,
we'll see if today's initial strength can hold.
Took a little longer than expected but reached my target. Sold two thirds - taking profits.
GLTA
Topic: TRAVELZOO INC (TZOO)
Annual Changes to the NASDAQ Internet Index...
by GlobeNewswire Mar 14 2011 7:05AM
NEW YORK, Mar 14, 2011 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (NDAQ) announced today the results of the annual evaluation of the NASDAQ Internet Index (QNET ), which will become effective with the market open on Monday, March 21, 2011.
As a result of the evaluation, the following 15 securities will be added to the Index: Ancestry.com Inc. (ACOM), Dice Holdings, Inc. (DHX), Keynote Systems, Inc. (KEYN), KIT digital, Inc. (KITD), Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT), MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT), Motricity, Inc. (MOTR), Monster Worldwide, Inc. (MWW), QuinStreet, Inc. (QNST), RightNow Technologies, Inc. (RNOW), Saba Software, Inc. (SABA), Support.com, Inc. (SPRT), Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO), Web.com Group, Inc. (WWWW), and Zix Corporation (ZIXI).
The Index is designed to track the performance of the largest and most liquid U.S.-listed companies engaged in internet-related businesses and that are listed in the U.S. The NASDAQ Internet Index is evaluated annually in March. For more information about the NASDAQ Internet Index, including detail eligibility criteria, visit https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/ .
As a result of the evaluation, the following three securities will be removed from the Index: drugstore.com, inc. (DSCM), Internet Capital Group, Inc. (ICGE), and Vitacost.com, Inc. (VITC).
About NASDAQ OMX Global Index Group
NASDAQ OMX Global Index Group is engaged in the design, development, calculation, licensing, and marketing of NASDAQ OMX Indexes. NASDAQ OMX Global Index Group specializes in the development of indexes focusing on NASDAQ OMX's brand themes of innovation, technology, growth, and globalization. NASDAQ OMX Global Index Group also provides custom index services and design solutions as a third-party provider to selected financial organizations. For more information about NASDAQ OMX indexes, visit www.nasdaq.com/indexes .
Access to essential historical index data for NASDAQ OMX indexes can be accessed from a single source, NASDAQ OMX Global Index Watch. For additional information, please visit https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/indexwatch.aspx .
About NASDAQ OMX Group
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NDAQG
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SOURCE: The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.
CONTACT: Media Contact:
Wayne Lee
+1.301.978.4875
[email protected]Issuer and Investor Contact:
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Travelzoo Wins China Hotel Starlight Award as Best Hospitality Online Media
Press Release Source: Travelzoo Asia Pacific On Tuesday March 22, 2011, 11:30 am EDT
SHANGHAI, CHINA--(Marketwire - 03/22/11) - Travelzoo Asia Pacific, a licensee of Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ:TZOO), a global Internet media company, today announced its win as the recipient of the 2011 Best Hospitality Online Media of China for two consecutive years. The Award was presented to Travelzoo China at The 6th China Hotel Starlight Awards Presentation Ceremony held in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China on 18 March, 2011.
"We are honored to receive 'The Best Hospitality Online Media of China' Award again and are proud to be recognized for our growing influence as the most trusted publisher of travel and entertainment deals in the hospitality industry in China. The Award underscores our commitment in delivering the best deals to our subscribers in the Chinese mainland, inspiring incremental travel, and reinforcing swift and direct conversions to the hospitality suppliers who work with us," said Jason Yap, CEO, Travelzoo Asia Pacific.
The China Hotel Starlight Awards is conceived by industry veterans as the 'Oscar Awards' of China's hospitality industry. The presentation ceremony was held in conjunction with the 2011 Asia Hotel Forum, a top-level annual event for the Asian hospitality industry, which serves as a major platform for exchange and dialogue between hospitality professionals.
About Travelzoo Asia Pacific
Travelzoo Asia Pacific is an independently owned licensee of Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ:TZOO - News), a global Internet media company and the most trusted publisher of travel and entertainment deals. With 22 million subscribers in Asia Pacific, North America and Europe, and 23 offices worldwide, Travelzoo® publishes deals from more than 2,000 travel and entertainment companies. Travelzoo's deal experts review offers to find the best deals and confirm their true value.
Please visit us at the following websites:
Australia
www.travelzoo.com.au
China
www.travelzoo.com/cn
Hong Kong
www.travelzoo.com.hk
Japan
www.travelzoo.com/jp
Taiwan
www.travelzoo.com.tw
Asia Pacific
www.travelzoo.com/ap
Contact:
Media Contact:Pauline Wong +852 3127
[email protected]
Taking advantage of TZOO´s fluctuations are now daytrading. Suggest traders to
analyze volatility during the day (up and downs somewhat simetrical).
GLTA
Take a look at today´s example of fluctuations (almost dollar and a half)
Another opportunity today.
The Benchmark Co. rated TZOO as BUY and changed target from $54 to $66.
Their comments are:
Equities research analysts at The Benchmark Company Reiterate a "Buy" rating for shares of Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ: TZOO) in a research note released to investors today.
Travelzoo Inc publishes Travelzoo and Weekend.com. Reaching several million users per month, Travelzoo lists sales and specials from more than 200 advertisers, including Alamo Rent-a-Car, American Airlines, American Express Travel, Avis Rent A Car, Best Western International, British Airways, Carnival Cruise Lines, Delta Air Lines, Fairmont Hotels & Resorts, Funjet Vacations, Gate 1 Travel, Ian Schrager Hotels, JetBlue Airways, Kimpton Hotel & Restaurant Group, Marriott Hotels, Omni Hotels, Pleasant Holidays, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Six Continents Hotels, Starwood Hotels & Resorts, Vail Resorts, Virgin Atlantic Airways, and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts.
Shares of Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ: TZOO) are trading up 6.10% as of Mar 23, 3:59PM EDT, hitting 57.94. Travelzoo Inc. has a 52 week low of 11.60 and a 52 week high of 57.94. The companies last released earnings were 0.80 per share. were The company has a market cap of 942.59M and a price-to-earnings ratio of 71.68.
GLTA
Gone parabolic and overbought - trying not to lose profits.
For daytraders: So far today, bouncing at mid support between 65.423 & pivot 67.607
Lets try to guess when its going to stop - (Next stop 100 ??) >:D
Getting out of the regression channel
Thanks for staying on top of this one, "Updates"
;D Applaud the work!
Quote from: setravis on April 08, 2011, 04:14:59 PM
Thanks for staying on top of this one, "Updates"
;D Applaud the work!
OK .... but viewed only 5 times of which 2 are mine and probably one yours :-\
WOW closed today at 94.22 after first quarter report ;D >:D Geting close to $100 :P
On Thursday April 21, 2011, 7:23 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Web travel deal company Travelzoo Inc. surged Thursday after the company reported record revenue for the first quarter, and adjusted profit that topped expectations.
Travelzoo sends out Internet newsletters and coupons for travelers, and operates several Web sites, including Travelzoo.com. In North America and Europe, the company had 19.9 million subscribers at the end of the first quarter.
"Subscribers grew by over 1 million, the second best performance in our company's history," CEO Chris Loughlin said in a statement.
The company posted a loss of $14 million, or 85 cents per share, compared with net income of $2.5 million, or 15 cents per share, a year ago. Travelzoo said the loss was linked to a $20 million settlement it made April 12 to end a shareholder dispute in Delaware.
The company said the disagreement centered around shares of stock that went unclaimed after a merger in 2002. Travelzoo said the facts of the case remain in dispute, but it wanted to pay the cash settlement to get the litigation behind it.
Excluding that settlement, Travelzoo said its adjusted net income totaled $6 million, or 37 cents per share, nearly triple what it reported in the prior-year period. Revenue rose 30 percent to $37 million.
The company said its North American revenue grew 23 percent in the quarter to $27.6 million -- the fastest pace in four years-- while its European revenue rose 53 percent to $9.4 million. The company said that its European business saw the highest quarterly subscriber growth ever.
On average, analysts expected earnings of 28 cents per share on revenue of $33.4 million, according to FactSet.
The company's earnings sent its stock up $20.35, or 28 percent, to close at $94.22.
Travelzoo Short Squeeze in Play...
Travelzoo (NASDAQ:TZOO) is an old momo stock which has come back to life; I have been watching the past 4-5 months in a bit of awe. This is another example of where valuation simply does not matter (until one day it does), and trying to figure out a top based on traditional metrics has created immense pain for the 'smart money'. TZOO (NASDAQ:TZOO) is one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the market, and for obvious reasons – in mid March it traded at 40x-ish forward estimates on 2011. That was when it was $45. After tripling from $15 at the time Bernanke promised us QE2 in late August. Over extended after a 200% run? Not so fast.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=50425)
With today's 24%+ gain, the stock has doubled yet again in just over a month from $45 to $90. From the original $15? 500% gain.
The catalyst today is an earnings report, in which the company posted a solid beat of 9 cents; 37 cents v 28 cent expectation. Even if we take the year end analysts estimate of $1.17 and say Travelzoo will make $1.40 (aggressive assumption) we are now talking a forward PE of 65. But I guess in a market where Chinese internet stocks are trading at Price to Sales of 150, everything else is a bargain. It's the 'relative valuation' game, 1999 style. To reiterate, no one is saying these companies are not growing... we have simply returned to an era where no valuation is too high for a select group of about 50 companies.
For the quarter, the company posted revenue of $37 million and non-GAAP profits of 37 cents a share, well ahead of the Street consensus at $33.4 million and 28 cents. Revenue was up 30% from a year ago.
The company said North American revenue was up 23%; European revenue was up 53%.
Travelzoo said it had 19.9 million unduplicated subscribers to its e-mail newsletters, up 6% sequentially and 12% from a year ago.
In North America, total unduplicated number of subscribers was 14.8 million as of March 31, 2011, up 7% from March 31, 2010 and up 4% from December 31, 2010. In Europe, total unduplicated number of subscribers was 5.1 million as of March 31, 2011, up 29% from March 31, 2010 and up 11% from December 31, 2010.
"We kicked off 2011 with record revenues and record adjusted operating income. Subscribers grew by over 1 million, the second best performance in our company's history," said Chris Loughlin, CEO of Travelzoo (NASDAQ:TZOO). "We doubled adjusted operating income year-over-year as we continued to ramp up Local Deals, which are now live in 48 markets in 6 countries. North America revenues grew at the fastest pace in over 4 years. Europe saw the highest quarterly subscriber growth ever and returned its first significant quarterly profit."
Competitors to Watch include: Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE), priceline.com (NASDAQ:PCLN), Orbitz (NYSE:OWW), eLong (NASDAQ:LONG), Ctrip.com (NASDAQ:CTRP), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Deltar Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK), US Airways (NYSE:LCC), United Continental (NYSE:UAL), Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), Hawaiian (NASDAQ:HA), JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) and AirTrain (NYSE:AAI).
Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ:TZOO) is a global Internet media company. With more than 22 million subscribers in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific and 23 offices worldwide, Travelzoo® publishes deals from more than 2,000 travel and entertainment companies. Travelzoo's deal experts review offers to find the best deals and confirm their true value.
Disclosure : No position
Follow the latest from earnings season here>>
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/category/earnings-trading-markets
Time to put this one again in the watch list. Insider selling seems to have ended and chart looks attractive. Lets wait for a BO over 60. A volume increase could see short´s squeeze >:D
Take a look at Short Interest data:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/filters/equity_si.aspx?TICKER=tzoo
Next update june 24th
Running pretty well. Current pivot 63.92.
Resistances at: 65.34 67.68 69.10 With volume over 1.5 M could hit 72
Although holding a long position, pullbacks are usual in this stock (ideal for daytrading).
Travelzoo Inc. will host a conference call to discuss the Company's financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011. Travelzoo Inc. will issue a press release reporting its results before the market opens on July 21, 2011.
WHEN Thursday, July 21, 2011 at 11:00 AM ET
HOW: A live webcast of Travelzoo's Q2 2011 earnings conference call can be accessed at http://ir.travelzoo.com/earnings.cfm. The webcast will be archived within 24 hours of the end of the call and will be available through the same link.
CONTACT: Investor Relations
Glen Ceremony, CFO, Travelzoo Inc.
[email protected] ============================================================
After cup&handle resistances are 78.43 82.02 84.55 nevertheless KEEP IN MIND ABOVE MENTIONED DATE.
If S&P helps on monday and with some volume increase, TZOO could hit $80 this week or even $90 if earnings exceed expected levels. Going through earnings is always a risk so suggest taking partial profits on the way up.
Best luck to all