You know I'm bearish on the oil price and oil related stocks. But I found one that is irresistible, altough it is already trading above $100.
Why? Because it is still probably the cheapest stock on the S&P500.
Please consider the company's 3rd quarter results: Valero Energy Corporation Reports Third Quarter Earnings; Ninth Consecutive Quarter of Record Results (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=43397&guid=%7BC0FE1AFD%2DC466%2D4126%2D9BD8%2DCF29DEECAC5E%7D&symb=)
«SAN ANTONIO, Oct 31, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) today reported net income for the third quarter of 2005 of $1.3 billion, or $4.37 per share, compared to $434 million, or $1.57 per share, for the same period last year. »
If there's no earnings growth, the company will make a profit of $17.48/share in the upcoming year. That would translate into a P/E of 6 :o
But IF there's earnings growth, and read this:
«Given all these positive factors, it's clear that the current First Call consensus estimate of $3.67 per share for the fourth quarter is significantly too low. In fact, we estimate that in October alone we will earn around $2.30 per share.»
If they continue the October pace, they would earn $6.9/share in the fourth quarter alone. That would mean 2005 earnings would be $16.32, so the trailing P/E of this company is 6.45, which is extremely low.
If oil prices don't collapse in the coming quarters VLO will easily double. The company will make a 2 for 1 stock split in December, so I don't need to see $210 to double my money.
I'll buy VLO for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio at today's open, 6.66% of capital as usual.
Cramer said to load up the truck with VLO under $100. Excellent buy !
I have it from 78$..... I dont have more green to put into it... >:D
David, according with this the oil will be bottoming by end year + or -.. @ $55. I think I'll wait until then to join whit this oil related stoks..
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamilton/oct212005.html
Quote from: REALDEALS21 on November 01, 2005, 08:28:08 AM
Cramer said to load up the truck with VLO under $100. Excellent buy !
Thanks RealDeal21, I didn't know he was bullish on VLO.
Quote from: dhiraj19 on November 01, 2005, 10:14:29 AM
I have it from 78$..... I dont have more green to put into it... >:D
Cut the losses and let the profits run and more green will come to you 8)
Quote from: Gu$tavo on November 01, 2005, 11:38:19 AM
David, according with this the oil will be bottoming by end year + or -.. @ $55. I think I'll wait until then to join whit this oil related stoks..
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamilton/oct212005.html
That's ok Gu$tavo, but I feel VLO will trend higher regardless of the oil price. It is way undervalued at this point.
I'll hold VLO.
Ahh, it feels good to own something above $100, even though for someone without stock market experience it would be hard to believe.
I think VLO is way undervalued at this point, the short and long term trends are bullish and I'll continue holding it for the foreseeable future.
VLO is a great play in progress, so much support as well just above $100 also made it a very positive risk reward entry. My stop is already nearly at my entry price trailing the supporting averages, ahh if only all trades went that way so quickly LOL.
Anyway a look to my weekly chart shows me that VLO has tested the mid point of the bollinger bands twice and both times it quickly recovered and then set upon a 3 then 4 month runs to double each time (see chart). The stock market has a habit of repeating itself, so that's $200 in February......... ;D
Still was not able to get my order filled >:(. Now I'm doubting :-\. Wait or get in at $ 111,-
Anybody else wrestling with that question or opinions on it?
Would like to hear.
Amarens
$200 in February? I could live with that ;D Nice chart Aussie !
Quote from: Amarens on November 04, 2005, 03:10:11 AM
Still was not able to get my order filled >:(. Now I'm doubting :-\. Wait or get in at $ 111,-
Anybody else wrestling with that question or opinions on it?
Would like to hear.
Amarens
Lesson for the future: when you want to buy, you buy it. Buy at the offer, buy at the market, buy with a limit order given that limit is above the offer price (recommended), but buy it !
It doesn't make any sense trying to grab a few more ticks and waist the big move.
But of course, you know this already, after letting this one go ... forget about the past, and about the future, think only of now. Do you want to buy it now?
Well, I would. The trend is bullish and I see this breaking out to new highs above $117 soon. If we get a close above $117.25 with volume above average, that would trigger a technical target of 142.79.
All this doesn't mean I'm not free to sell next week at $108. At this precise moment, I can only see higher prices coming for VLO (of course, there will be down days along the way, but no one needs to pick the bottom to win, usually you don't win when you try to buy stocks at a low point), but that can change.
I wish you good luck Amarens, I will continue holding VLO.
QuoteAll this doesn't mean I'm not free to sell next week at $108. At this precise moment, I can only see higher prices coming for VLO (of course, there will be down days along the way, but no one needs to pick the bottom to win, usually you don't win when you try to buy stocks at a low point), but that can change.
Look how fast things change man ;D
While I was making the update on RDCM I remembered that I didn't check for any news or SEC filings on VLO (I do that for every stock before the update, to see if there's something new on the fundamental front).
It's incredible, but the company is calling for an extraordinary shareholders meeting, on December 1, 2005, to increase the number of authorized shares from 600,000,000 to 1,200,000,000 ???
For now they have just 261.77M shares issued and outstanding, so why this increase?
From penny stock trading we know this probably means dilution in the future. In the SEC filing, it says that «if you don't vote, that will be taken as an «approval», and the company didn't issue any press release about it, it's not on Yahoo, not on Market watch, probably just on www.sec.gov (I have a paid service that collects these SEC filings just in time for me).
So, 15 minutes ago I was saying this was going to $200. Now I see that it can go to $200 without leaving $100. It may even go to $200 while it goes down to $50.
Do you understand what I mean? If you don't, please say so.
Taking all this in consideration, and thinking that not much people already knows this since it isn't published on general media, I'll take profits on VLO at today's open !
Just a silly question David,
Would it be a good idea to purchase Jan'06 puts for VLO at 110? Only question is if it splits 2 for 1 does this mean 110 is 55 or 220?
Thanks for all your help.
Have a GRRRRRRRREAT DAY !!!!
QuoteJust a silly question David
I love silly questions :)
QuoteWould it be a good idea to purchase Jan'06 puts for VLO at 110?
Arrrghh, even if that may be a good idea for the short term, just the thought of buying puts and calls brings me nauseas. Many of my friends lost it all trading warrants and options. I know a guy who didn't knew anything about trading. The man lost his family's entire fortune (more than $5M) buying Nasdaq calls when the market was going down in 2001.
So, if you want to be trading 2 or 3 years from now, I would avoid trading puts and calls. Why not just short the stock, with much less leverage? (I'm not inclined to short either).
But thanks for asking, good luck :)
QuoteOnly question is if it splits 2 for 1 does this mean 110 is 55 or 220?
It would go to $55, but that doesn't mean anything, the people who own the shares would get double the number of their shares. Say, if you have 100 shares at $110, you would have 200 shares if a 2 for 1 stock split occurs.
That's not what I was talking about, don't confuse stock split with dilution. If the stock splits 2 for 1 and the number of outstanding shares, for example, doubles, the stock price would go down to $27.5 without any change in the overall value of the company (the market cap).
QuoteThanks for all your help.
Just keep those questions coming :)
I have to send the newsletter and have lunch now, good trades !
Guess I didn't explain my 110 splits 2 for 1 question.
I understand there is no difference for people who own the stock, but do options adjust as well.
For example, if you have (1) Jan 110 put and the stock splits 2 for 1 do you now have (2) Jan 55 puts. It only seems logical, but sometimes my logic fails me.
Hope lunch was GRRRRREAT !!!
Options do the same they adjust in accordance with the split as they are tracking the underlying instrument (the stock).
Good Luck
By the way I also sold this morning following the SEC filing on the authorised share increase, which is a real shame as I was looking forward to $200 in Feb ;)
Sold it.
shorted it. 4th short in history. see how it goes
David,
If they were going to do a 4 for 1 stock split would they have to increase the number of authroized sharers before doing it?
nope
Thanks puenthouse.
Folks energy is bottoming...its time to buy again. >:D
VLO "knocking 3 times" very bullish...
Quote from: calven on December 06, 2005, 01:31:53 AM
Folks energy is bottoming...its time to buy again. >:D
VLO "knocking 3 times" very bullish...
Good observation, calven. Applause.
VLO printed 106.12 on Monday, within 0.038 of the down trendline, validating it as resistance. If we can print 106.13, VLO should rally.
Makes sense from the standpoint of sector rotation, too, if we get a selloff in the NASDAQ, Semis, etc. They've have had a great rally, while the energy-related issues have had a selloff.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 07, 2005, 04:19:15 AM
Quote from: calven on December 06, 2005, 01:31:53 AM
Folks energy is bottoming...its time to buy again. >:D
VLO "knocking 3 times" very bullish...
Good observation, calven. Applause.
VLO printed 106.12 on Monday, within 0.038 of the down trendline, validating it as resistance. If we can print 106.13, VLO should rally.
calven,
We got the print of 106.13 and have two closes above the down trendline. VLO looks okay here.
I own energy-related Burlingrton Resources (BR). It's in merger discussions with Conoco Phillips. You might want to take a look at it. Nice chart. I'll post it next.
BR broke out of a W-bottom and Ascending Triangle. It re-tested the breakout on Friday. Upside target: 85.97 IN PLAY.
Upside follow-thru on the Symmetrical Triangle breakout on a gap higher.
I like the KISS approach to investing.
VLO is in the refining and distribution business of Oil products. The US is running out of refining capacity. In fact many believe that there will be a shortage of refined products in the US this year.
For many reasons this shortage of refining capacity will continue for years to come. I like companies that cannot produce enough of their products to meet demand (this pick actually reminds me of KOMG!). It normally indicates that they have a lot of pricing power.
Pricing power translates directly down to the bottom line. Having in mind that VLO is trading at a PE of 7.3 with the consensus earnings this year it seems to be severely undervalued.
It was therefore a very easy decision to buy VLO this week. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3073)
From this thread I can see that David sold due to fear of dilution. I am really not concerned. VLO is generating 1 billion dollar of cash on a quarterly basis. They obviously don't need cash.
They decided to fill the war chest in December and that can only mean that they might think about acquisitions. I like that if they are planning to buy companies in their core business. This whole sector is undervalued and even though I am not sure how the market will react to acquisitions in the short term I am sure that VLO is a winner long term.
Mike
Bought VLO at 51.00 on today's retracement of yesterday's tall white candle, which was the third day of a Bullish Morning Star pattern. If it wasn't a Bullish Star pattern, I'll be stopped out at 49.64, below last Friday's Bullish Doji Star hammer, for a loss of 2.7%.
Upside target: resistance in the 55s. Risk: reward is 1:3.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 19, 2006, 11:39:29 AM
Upside target: resistance in the 55s. Risk: reward is 1:3.
55.57 - 55.19 was key support that was broken on the September 9 gap down.
55.58 - was the September 8 low, prior to the gap down.
55.22 - was the high of the September 9 gap down.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 19, 2006, 11:39:29 AM
Bought VLO at 51.00 on today's retracement of yesterday's tall white candle, which was the third day of a Bullish Morning Star pattern. If it wasn't a Bullish Star pattern, I'll be stopped out at 49.64, below last Friday's Bullish Doji Star hammer, for a loss of 2.7%.
Sold at 49.61. Loss: 2.7.%
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71. Stop: a few pennies below 51.60. Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 20, 2006, 11:14:34 AM
Sold at 49.61. Loss: 2.7.%
"If at first you don't succeed, try, try again." :D
I've been following VLO since I took that loss on what looked to be a Bullish Morning Star pattern.
NOPE. :P
On Monday of this week, after a better thrust higher in the 34 RSI, it came into Bullish Synchronicity with its "shadow," the 55RSI.
That established a Buy Pivot for yesterday, at 53.00 (Monday's high). The Buy Signal for yesterday was
53.01, a penny above the Buy Pivot.
As with any indicator, when we get a buy or a sell signal, we always want to look at the chart, to see whether or not we want to take the signal. The chart looks good. We'll take a look at it in the next post.
Yesterday, VLO went to 53.00, the Buy Pivot, then backed off to the 52.40s. I bought it at 52.71, figuring that if the stock was as good as it looked, technically, it should print the
Buy Signal, 53.01, late yesterday, or today.
VLO closed at 53.06, so the Buy Signal was issued, and on a closing basis, as well.
VLO got slapped for a 32% loss, from July's 68.83 to September's 46.84. :(
After that kind of whacking, I like to see a stock settle down and form a base, from which to launch a rally.
VLO broke out of a W-Bottom on October 12. Targets are on the chart. They haven't MADE, and still are IN PLAY.
That kind of bottom is "skimpy." Only of one month duration, But, it was a start.
Rather than rally to the targets, VLO now has formed a second pattern, an Ascending Triangle. Data Point #4 on the ascending line just got put in at 51.60, and yesterday, the 34/55RSIs gave us a Buiy Signal at 53.01. I like that.
The MACD had a nice bounce yesterday, from above its signal line, and also from above the ZERO line. I like that, as well.
VLO is set up nicely here, for a rally. If VLO can take out the 54.73-54.75 highs of the Ascending Triangle, we'll have TWO Bullish breakouts, and another upside target IN PLAY.
The Ascending line came in on Friday at
52.19. The low on the day was
52.21, so that's a trendline validation, within two cents. Very close, in this price range.
Friday's close was
52.31. The Ascending line will come in on Monday, November 27, at
52.3125, so in order for VLO to hold that trendline on a print basis, it needs to open UNCH, or better, and rally immediately.
A slight intraday violation of that trendline is okay, but it inspires more confidence when those tests hold.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 22, 2006, 02:52:48 AM
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71. Stop: a few pennies below 51.60. Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.
Same stop.
If that Ascending line gets broken AND the
51.60 low of the "Buy Pivot" day both get taken down, I'll want out of it, and I will take a small loss.
Again... :P
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 26, 2006, 11:12:41 AM
Friday's close was 52.31. The Ascending line will come in on Monday, November 27, at 52.3125, so in order for VLO to hold that trendline on a print basis, it needs to open UNCH, or better, and rally immediately.
The bad news is that trendline didn't hold. :P
Quote
If that Ascending line gets broken AND the 51.60 low of the "Buy Pivot" day both get taken down, I'll want out of it, and I will take a small loss.
Again... :P
The good news is that 51.60 held, that VLO rallied yesterday, and that we've now got the possibility of a "mini" W-Bottom (drawn on the chart). If 53.36 gets taken out, 54.94 would be IN PLAY.
Math:
53.36 - is the Middle of the "W," or the "Buy Pivot"
51.78 - is the low (51.60 and 51.78 are the lows; I use the more conservative of the two)
53.36 - 51.78 = 1.58 Points + 53.36 = Target: 54.94
If 54.94 gets MADE, that also would be a breakout above the 54.73-54.75 highs of the Ascending Triangle, which would put 59.23 IN PLAY.
Math for the Ascending Triangle:
54.73 - High (the more conservative of the two highs)
50.23 - Low
54.73 - 50.23 = 4.50 Points + 54.73 = Target: 59.23
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 05:28:32 AM
that 51.60 held, that VLO rallied yesterday, and that we've now got the possibility of a "mini" W-Bottom (drawn on the chart). If 53.36 gets taken out, 54.94 would be IN PLAY.
The 53.36 "Buy Pivot" of the "W" Bottom has been taken out convincingly. 54.94 is IN PLAY.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 10:43:51 AM
The 53.36 "Buy Pivot" of the "W" Bottom has been taken out convincingly. 54.94 is IN PLAY.
WOW...that's a bit of a surprise to see a technical breakout of the Ascending Triangle, after this morning's breakout of the "W" Bottom. That's a DOUBLE breakout today. :o
I don't expect that to hold up on a closing basis, but it's nice to see it, and the volume is good. VLO already has traded is 100-Day Average Volume, so that's good, too.
The high thus far is
54.87, close enough tor our W-Bottom target of
54.94 to consider it MADE.
We'd like to see VLO hold the better part of today's gains at the close.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 22, 2006, 02:52:48 AM
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71. Stop: a few pennies below 51.60. Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.
"If at first you don't succeed, try, try again." :D
Sold 10% of my VLO position at
54.94. Gain: 4.2%
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 10:43:51 AM
The 53.36 "Buy Pivot" of the "W" Bottom has been taken out convincingly. 54.94 is IN PLAY .
The W-Bottom broke out this morning, and the
54.94 target MADE this afternoon.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 01:10:01 PM
WOW...that's a bit of a surprise to see a technical breakout of the Ascending Triangle, after this morning's breakout of the "W" Bottom. That's a DOUBLE breakout today. :o
I don't expect that to hold up on a closing basis
Nice day for VLO. The Ascending Triangle held up at the close, so we've got:
Target #1 - 54.94 - W-Bottom Breakout Nov 29 - MADE Nov 29
Target #2 - 56.94 - Right Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13
Target #3 - 57.62 - Left Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13
Target #4 - 59.23 - Ascending Triangle Breakout Nov 29*
* That's IN PLAY as long as VLO trades above the 54.73-54.75 Breakout.
date=1164831614]
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71. Stop: a few pennies below 51.60. Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.
"If at first you don't succeed, try, try again." :D
Sold 10% of my VLO position at
54.94. Gain: 4.2%
Quote
Sold another 20% at 57.06. Gain: 8.3%
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 30, 2006, 04:24:47 AM
WOW...that's a bit of a surprise to see a technical breakout of the Ascending Triangle, after this morning's breakout of the "W" Bottom. That's a DOUBLE breakout today. :o
I don't expect that to hold up on a closing basis
Nice day for VLO. The Ascending Triangle held up at the close, so we've got:
Target #1 - 54.94 - W-Bottom Breakout Nov 29 - MADE Nov 29
Target #2 - 56.94 - Right Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13 MADE Dec 6
Target #3 - 57.62 - Left Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13
Target #4 - 59.23 - Ascending Triangle Breakout Nov 29*
* That's IN PLAY as long as VLO trades above the 54.73-54.75 Breakout.
Target #2: 56.94 MADE. The last pattern on this 1-minute chart (I forgot to draw the lines) was a Symmetrical Triangle that put 57.08 IN PLAY, so I held out for a little more than the target (54.94)
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 06, 2006, 01:07:00 PM
Target #2: 56.94 MADE. The last pattern on this 1-minute chart (I forgot to draw the lines) was a Symmetrical Triangle that put 57.08 IN PLAY, so I held out for a little more than the target (54.94)
Today's high was
57.09. Whew...I cut that one a little close! :o :D
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 06, 2006, 01:07:00 PM
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71. Stop: a few pennies below 51.60. Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.
Sold 10% of my VLO position at 54.94. Gain: 4.2%
Sold another 20% at 57.06. Gain: 8.3%
Bought back the 20% for 55.06. Stop on the entire postion: a CLOSE below 54.73.
I had a bit of good luck selling three cents below the recent top of 57.09. There's a possibility that the Bullish Ascending Triangle (pattern in white) is going to morph into a Bear Channel, so I'm moving my stop on the trade to the 54.73-54.75 flat top of the pattern, which locks me into a winning trade from my 52.71 entry.
Re-entering at 55.06 on the 20% that I sold at 57.06 is a very good risk:reward. It will cost me about ½% loss to find out if 54.75-54.73 is going to hold.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 08, 2006, 10:50:53 AM
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71. Stop: a few pennies below 51.60. Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.
Sold 10% of my VLO position at 54.94. Gain: 4.2%
Sold another 20% at 57.06. Gain: 8.3%
Bought back the 20% for 55.06. Stop on the entire postion: a CLOSE below 54.73.
Sold all of my VLO at 54.97. Gain on the trade: 5%
We took out this morning's 54.99 low and have rallied to just below that. We'll likely end the day on a Black Candle, and with the threat of this morphing into a Bear Channel, I decided to take the money.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 08, 2006, 03:39:51 PM
Sold all of my VLO at 54.97. Gain on the trade: 5%
We took out this morning's 54.99 low and have rallied to just below that. We'll likely end the day on a Black Candle, and with the threat of this morphing into a Bear Channel, I decided to take the money.
The dotted blue upward-sloping line represents the top of channel; the solid blue upward-sloping line represents the bottom of the channel.
The three successive closes below the bottom of the channel (formerly, an Ascending Triangle), suggests that we, indeed, got the bearish pattern morph.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 30, 2006, 04:24:47 AM
The Ascending Triangle held up at the close, so we've got:
Target #1 - 54.94 - W-Bottom Breakout Nov 29 - MADE Nov 29
Target #2 - 56.94 - Right Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13 - MADE Dec 6
Target #3 - 57.62 - Left Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13
Target #4 - 59.23 - Ascending Triangle Breakout Nov 29*
* That's IN PLAY as long as VLO trades above the 54.73-54.75 Breakout.
VLO didn't hold the 54.73-54.75 breakout, and with the break of the channel(formerly the ascending line of the Ascending Triangle), Targets #3 and #4 are CANCELLED.
VLO closed Friday at 51.59, a penny below the lows of 51.60 and 51.78, at Blue #4 along the ascending line, so that's weak.
It looks short-term oversold, though, so a rally back to the broken channel could be on tap here.
Given the recent weakness since the early December high, I'd like to see VLO go back down to the autumn lows of 46.84 and 47.52 for a Right Leg of a three-month W-Bottom.
That would give VLO a much better base/pattern for a breakout above the middle, or pivot, of the W-Bottom, which is the December 6 high of 57.09.
In that event, the mid-60s would be IN PLAY (we'll be able to measure the target later, if that occurs).
I don't see the cute "pump" and "dump" up and down arrows on those charts everytime the stock goes up or down. Oh...i forgot, they are just applied to my stocks....... Sorry.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 08, 2006, 03:39:51 PM
Sold all of my VLO at 54.97. Gain on the trade: 5%
We took out this morning's 54.99 low and have rallied to just below that. We'll likely end the day on a Black Candle, and with the threat of this morphing into a Bear Channel, I decided to take the money.
The dotted blue upward-sloping line represents the top of channel; the solid blue upward-sloping line represents the bottom of the channel.
The three successive closes below the bottom of the channel (formerly, an Ascending Triangle), suggests that we, indeed, got the bearish pattern morph.
Target 50.23 MADE (the bottom of the channel), so we now have confirmation of our suspicion that the Ascending Triangle morphed into a Bear Channel.
46.47 also is IN PLAY, which is near the September/October lows.
If we get anything near that target, mid-February would be a nice intersection of price and time, and would make for a nice, broad base (five months) for a rally.
Mid-February would be about 52 trading sessions from the 57.09 high, the same amount of time it took for the rally from the 46.84 low to the 57.09 high.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 04, 2007, 06:00:09 AM
46.47 also is IN PLAY, which is near the September/October lows.
VLO continues to tank toward the target IN PLAY, and to the September/October lows, which were
46.84 and
47.52, respectively.
Cramer is bearish on VLO, but he gave it a "pre-BOOYAH?" last night, if VLO hits the target area:
"Valero Energy (VLO - news - Cramer's Take - Rating): "ConocoPhillips (COP - news - Cramer's Take - Rating) announced disturbingly low margins on refining," which Cramer said doesn't bode well for refining company Valero.
Cramer said Valero "can go as low as 47," and only then would he sanction it. "
Worth watching for at least a bounce, and possibly more, in that
46.47-47.52 area.
;)
Valero Energy upgraded to "market perform"
Friday, January 12, 2007 3:45:48 AM ET
Bernstein
NEW YORK, January 12 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Bernstein upgrade Valero Energy (VLO.NYS) from "underperform" to "market perform."
VLO has closed above resistance at at 56.97 and appears to be in a new uptrend. Volume was quite heavy which leads me to believe we should see the rally continue. Melf Elf, what´s your comment ;D ?
fyi:
1)
Valero Energy "outperform," target price raised
Wednesday, February 21, 2007 9:13:30 AM ET
Friedman,Billings,Ramsey &Co
NEW YORK, February 21 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Friedman Billings reiterate their "outperform" rating on Valero Energy (VLO.NYS). The target price has been raised from $79 to $80.
2)
Valero Energy upgraded to "overweight"
Monday, February 05, 2007 1:50:03 AM ET
Prudential Financial
NEW YORK, February 5 (newratings.com) - Analyst Jason D Gammel of Prudential Financial upgrades Valero Energy Corp (VLO.NYS) from "neutral weight" to "overweight," while raising his estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $61 to $65.
In a research note published on February 2, the analyst mentions that Valero Energy's focus on improving the operational performance is boosting the company's bottom-line. The analyst believes that Valero Energy would be able to generate ample free cash flows in 2007 in order to pay dividends, reduce debt liabilities and repurchase shares worth $2 billion. Prudential Financial expects the company's margin expansion to be sustainable relative to the benchmarks going forward. The EPS estimates for 2007 and 2008 have been raised from $6.89 to $7.41 and from $2.74 to $6.13, respectively.
3)
Valero Energy upgraded to "overweight"
Friday, February 02, 2007 8:26:04 AM ET
Prudential Financial
NEW YORK, February 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Prudential Financial upgrade Valero Energy CP (VLO.NYS) from "neutral weight" to "overweight." The target price has been raised from $61 to $65.
VLO has a bunch of new gas stations popping up here in California. The prices are better then the other two gas stations and they also have a nice clean apperance to them. I think VLO is a great stock to own if you believe oil is on its way up. I think we will see $70 dollars a barrel for oil in the not to distant future.
Quote from: la-onda on February 21, 2007, 11:37:38 PM
VLO has closed above resistance at at 56.97 and appears to be in a new uptrend. Volume was quite heavy which leads me to believe we should see the rally continue. Melf Elf, what´s your comment ;D ?
Oliver,
VLO is a little ahead of itself as far as the 50/200DMAs, but it looks good.
The 50 is the dotted green line.
The 200 is the dotted red line.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 05, 2007, 06:06:31 AM
Worth watching for at least a bounce, and possibly more, in that 46.47-47.52 area.
The January low came in four sessions later, on January 10, at
47.66, just above the target area. That completed the Right Leg of a W-Bottom.
Yesterday was a DOUBLE breakout of the little Symmetrical Triangle at 56.37 (pattern in purple), and the W-Bottom (horizontal black line, at 57.09 ...Left Leg is the September low of 46.95 ... Right Leg is the January low of 47.66).
Targets IN PLAY:
#1 - 58.35 - Symmetrical Triangle (in purple). Broke out above 56.37 yesterday.
#2 - 59.23 - That's a "lost target" from the Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue) that broke out in November, but morphed into a Bear Flag (dotted blue trendline) at the 57.09 high. That 57.09 high then became the pivot of the W-Bottom.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 08, 2006, 03:39:51 PM
Sold another 20% at 57.06. Gain: 8.3%
TIP: Anticipating that "possible" pattern morph into the Bear Flag got me out of that portion of the trade three cents below the 57.09 high.
When you get an Ascending Triangle breakout (pattern in blue), create a line parallel to Blue #2 and Blue #4, an anchor it to the high at Blue #1. That's the dotted blue line.
When you approach that dotted blue line, particularly if there is overhead resistance, which there was, it's a good idea to take some profits there, to defend against the pattern morph into a Bear Flag, which we got.
Back to the 59.23 target...
When VLO gapped above the 54.73 - 54-75 highs of the Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue) on February 2, 2007, that put the "lost target" of 59.23 back IN PLAY.
#3 - 66.52 - W-Bottom target. I always use the more conservative of the two legs (46.84 and 47.66) to measure the target, so 47.66.
57.09 ("W" pivot) - 47.66 (Right Leg) = 9.43 points + 57.09 = Target: 66.52
The targets are IN PLAY as long as VLO trades above the pattern breakouts. Given the fact that the 50/200DMAs are inverted, and that there is a gap left on the chart at 54.46 - 54.28, VLO could come back and fill it.
It's more bullish if that gap
doesn't get filled, but it's still bullish if it fills the gap, then turns higher again.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 22, 2007, 03:41:15 AM
Targets IN PLAY:
#1 - 58.35 - Symmetrical Triangle (in purple). Broke out above 56.37 yesterday.
#2 - 59.23 - That's a "lost target" from the Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue) that broke out in November, but morphed into a Bear Flag (dotted blue trendline) at the 57.09 high. That 57.09 high then became the pivot of the W-Bottom.
58.35 AND 59.23 both MADE.
Quote
VLO is a little ahead of itself as far as the 50/200DMAs, but it looks good.
The 50 is the dotted green line.
The 200 is the dotted red line.
Now that Targets #1 and #2 MADE, I'd like to see a pullback to support, which would give the MAs a chance to get in gear:
Support:
1. 57.09 - the "W" pivot
2. 56.70 - the 200 DMA
3. 56.30 - The top of the Ascending Triangle (in purple).
Gap and 50DMA below all of that.
It might not pull back and just head for Target #3, but Friday is a "possible" Bearish Doji Star Hangman, and a pullback would be healthy.
VLO update (MelfElf, we are missing you ;) )
1)
Valero Energy "buy," target price raised
Wednesday, April 04, 2007 2:09:01 PM ET
Banc of America
NEW YORK, April 4 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Banc of America Securities reiterate their "buy" rating on Valero Energy Corp (VLO.NYS). The target price has been raised from $64 to $72.
2)
Valero Energy "outperform," target price raised
Wednesday, April 04, 2007 4:16:04 PM ET
BMO Capital Markets
NEW YORK, April 4 (newratings.com) - Analysts at BMO Nesbitt Burns reiterate their "outperform" rating on Valero Energy Inc (VLO.NYS). The target price has been raised from $75 to $82.
3)
Chart: continuously uptrend