3SOF

Public 3SOF Boards => Previous 3SOF Picks => Topic started by: David Randolph on November 10, 2005, 07:40:26 AM

Title: TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 10, 2005, 07:40:26 AM
There are many fundamental reasons to buy TIII today, if you want you can spend some time reading the company's latest earnings report (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=4762&guid=%7B192EB594%2D2689%2D4CA6%2D94B0%2DD1B7F35E5CE6%7D&symb=).

But, the Fast Portfolio is just for technically based trades, so I'll use just technical analysis to justify today's "investment"  ;D

You can't see it on this all history chart, but yesterday's volume was the second highest in this company's stock market history that goes back to at least 1980 (my Metastock database has data just back to 1980 for North American stocks):

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=8878;image)

On the next chart you'll be able to see that there is massive long term resistance just above $4, more precisely, at $4.18. That level will put a cap on every bull move, at least for some time, I believe:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=8879;image)

Looking at a more recent time frame chart, we see that the stock hit a medium term resistance level yesterday at around $2.94, and it fell back to a close at $2.60. I believe the pullback was solely due to that medium term resistance level:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=8880;image)

But, volume was higher yesterday than the last time the stock hit those levels. That tells me that this time there was more money involved and believing in higher prices. More money equals more power, so $2.94 will probably be broken on the upside shortly.

Now, if the stock makes a breakout above $2.94 as I believe it will, I don't see it stopping below $4.

So, my trading plan for TIII is:

1) Buy it at today's open for the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio, 33.33% of capital as usual.
2) Sell it at $4.
3) As downside protection I wouldn't like to see it closing below yesterday's open, which was $2.48. So if the stock is set to close below $2.48 today, I'll dump it just before the close.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=8881;image)
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 10, 2005, 01:43:07 PM
Hey David,

I couldn't get in TIII this morning but now it's dropped (profit taking?) but still above your sell point... is this a good entry point or should i just pass at this point since it is a 3SOF Fast... unless you see a big rebound in the works.

thanks
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: netfishmademerich on November 10, 2005, 02:42:39 PM
Profit taking plus gap closing.  I think this one looks very good right.  I'm in at $2.66
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: KCScott on November 10, 2005, 02:54:33 PM
Wish I had the time earlier this AM to see this one.

David, if you look at your chart you'll see TIII hasn't touched $4.00 since early 2000.
I'm sure most holders dumped for a loss (at least I know I would have to offset gains)

This company reminds me of another winner I played called RADN.

Decent fundamentals as well - per Yahoo

Looks like a buy in the Morning..... targeting $ 2.50

Nice Find
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: netfishmademerich on November 10, 2005, 09:48:43 PM
Looking at it again this one simply opened way too high and induced profit taking but still closed strong in my opinion.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: puenthouse on November 10, 2005, 10:35:17 PM
Just came low enought to eat my target at 2.57.  Im glad i could get in one of these with you.  David last several stocks you have picked have left me sitting waiting for even higher gains lol. 
The best is when you sell a stock over 10, i not only sell it im starting to short it.  BIDU and VLO  WOOOWWW!!!!  even more fun making money up and down.  Only bad thing is, its like betting on the NO COME LINE in craps, so i have no one to cheer with but upset bagholders.  Well im glad to be in this one.  your over all % is alreayd outstanding in SOF-F.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 11, 2005, 08:07:19 AM
Quote from: stopthemadness on November 10, 2005, 01:43:07 PM
Hey David,

I couldn't get in TIII this morning but now it's dropped (profit taking?) but still above your sell point... is this a good entry point or should i just pass at this point since it is a 3SOF Fast... unless you see a big rebound in the works.

thanks

I'm sorry, I wasn't here to analyze the intraday (I usually don't). But let me give you a clue: when a stock is trading on the upper shadow of the previous day's candlestick it is still short term bullish.

Quote from: KCScott on November 10, 2005, 02:54:33 PM
Wish I had the time earlier this AM to see this one.

David, if you look at your chart you'll see TIII hasn't touched $4.00 since early 2000.
I'm sure most holders dumped for a loss (at least I know I would have to offset gains)

This company reminds me of another winner I played called RADN.

Decent fundamentals as well - per Yahoo

Looks like a buy in the Morning..... targeting $ 2.50

Nice Find

Thanks KCScott, did you get $2.50? Nice price  :o

Quote from: netfishmademerich on November 10, 2005, 09:48:43 PM
Looking at it again this one simply opened way too high and induced profit taking but still closed strong in my opinion.

I agree.

Quote from: puenthouse on November 10, 2005, 10:35:17 PM
Just came low enought to eat my target at 2.57. Im glad i could get in one of these with you. David last several stocks you have picked have left me sitting waiting for even higher gains lol.
The best is when you sell a stock over 10, i not only sell it im starting to short it. BIDU and VLO WOOOWWW!!!! even more fun making money up and down. Only bad thing is, its like betting on the NO COME LINE in craps, so i have no one to cheer with but upset bagholders. Well im glad to be in this one. your over all % is alreayd outstanding in SOF-F.

Lol puenthouse, yes, usually bears on a stock don't have many people to talk in a friendly way  :)

I'm expecting 3 SOF Fast to be a hard game, I just want to be in the green at the end of every month. We'll see.

Considering TIII, as said, the stock opened too high and then couldn't hold on to those gains. But, it held to close on the upper shadow of the previous candlestick, so it is still short term bullish.

Everything points out for a breakout of $2.94 on the upside. I'll try to be a little bit more patient with TIII, since fundamentals are so attractive (ouch, I didn't mean it).

But I won't stand a close below $2.48, I would have to sell if that were to happen.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 11, 2005, 08:42:43 AM
thanks David, and everyone else with their inputs... i'll look to try and get in this morning too in the 2.50's
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: cingross on November 11, 2005, 09:33:50 AM
David.

I would like to know how you are executing your buys at the open for the 3SOF fast portfolio.?

Are you entering them as market orders on the open?
Are you waiting a few minutes and entering limit orders.?
I have entered a c ouple at market on open and gotten killed...

Please post your technique for doing this.
If I have missed a previous post on this I apologize.
Thanks


Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 11, 2005, 11:05:03 AM
volume seems to be really drying up.

is that a concern for 3sof fast?
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stocky on November 11, 2005, 11:37:25 PM
Today was holdiday here, plus Friday. Volume will return with bang on Monday. Applaud David for this great pick.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: Ramsburg on November 11, 2005, 11:50:10 PM
Quote from: cingross on November 11, 2005, 09:33:50 AM
David.

I would like to know how you are executing your buys at the open for the 3SOF fast portfolio.?

Are you entering them as market orders on the open?
Are you waiting a few minutes and entering limit orders.?
I have entered a c ouple at market on open and gotten killed...

Please post your technique for doing this.
If I have missed a previous post on this I apologize.
Thanks


Hi Cindygross,

Let me reply, because most of the times, I'm the one who made the executions on David's picks for our Portfolios.

What I do, is to open the Level2 for the stocks we are buying, I check the bid/ask near the opening bell on the pre-market, and I put an order 2 or 3 ticks above the ask (I avoid Market Orders), that order is for the regular session, not the pre-market.
What I get most of the times is the opening price, and that's usually what I'm looking for, because that way we have a price that will be possible to get by all our subscribers.

There are some exceptions, and that's only on days where we are buying and selling a lot of stocks, and I'm not paying 100% attention to all the stocks we are trading because they are many, and I miss some prices, for example, I put an order 3 ticks above the ask, but then the bid/ask goes up, I'm looking to another ticker, and I miss the open price, and I get some price bellow open, or I have to buy higher... it depends ;) (anyway, if you put a market order, you'll get the open price for sure on the Nasdaq, Nyse and Amex, the only problem is that the open price could be just a crazy spike like MOVI today).

I think there is no special technique for this... and it's possible to get better entry prices than us. If you just want to follow our trading you just have to insert an order above the ask (or market) a few seconds before the opening, valid for the regular session (not pre-market), and I'm sure you'll get our price most of the times (but... believe me, our price is not the best price most of the times :)).

Best regards !

Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: Lucas Scott on November 14, 2005, 03:11:24 AM
Fundamentally TIII looks like a winner. Technically it may be overheated so I will hope for an entry in the low 2's in the next couple weeks. On a weekly chart, it hit resistance last week and I think it will need to consolidate its gains for a short period before going to new highs.

Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 14, 2005, 07:21:16 AM
Thanks for your input. My original trading plan was:

QuoteSo, my trading plan for TIII is:

1) Buy it at today's open for the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio, 33.33% of capital as usual.
2) Sell it at $4.
3) As downside protection I wouldn't like to see it closing below yesterday's open, which was $2.48. So if the stock is set to close below $2.48 today, I'll dump it just before the close.

I believe the stock is setting up to break $2.94 on the upside, but my patience is running short. I will move my «sell with a loss» plan a bit higher, because this is a Fast Portfolio and I see many opportunities else where.

So TIII needs to go up, now ! My new plan is:

1) Sell at $4
2) Sell if the stock is set to close below $2.60.

I think TIII will do allright, breaking $2.94 with a white candlestick today or tomorrow, because the stock held up well after the huge spike it had last Wednesday. Bulls are still in control after some consolidation, now it's time to get back to work and take this thing to new highs.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: SmartWrasse on November 14, 2005, 11:24:54 AM
Looks like another Randolph Rocket!  ;D
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: Lucas Scott on November 14, 2005, 11:44:50 AM
QuoteTechnically it may be overheated so I will hope for an entry in the low 2's in the next couple weeks

I guess I better change my statement to "hope for an entry in the low 3's" ;D
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 15, 2005, 09:08:16 AM
I don't put an alternative scenario now to selling at $4. Everything is in place for the stock to rise from $3 to $4 until before the end of the month. I won't prevent my self from getting this profit for the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: LiveLife on November 15, 2005, 09:27:18 AM
Keep up the great work!  :D

This short-term swing trader is waiting for profit taking, but I may be waiting a bit more now.  ;)
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: tokyopua on November 15, 2005, 04:10:20 PM
Today would have been a great day to swing trade this stock, but I didnt see the move coming so I just sat through the day. 

Xlivelife, did you play around with swing trading TIII today?  I had a $2K gain in my position at one point that I am kicking myself now for not taking profit on  :-\
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: LiveLife on November 15, 2005, 11:00:34 PM
I took profit at $3.15 - $3.17 (buy in at $3.05 - 13,670 shares) this morning.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: patriotmp on November 16, 2005, 07:51:15 AM

  Tokyopua,
       Trust me you aren't the only one kicking yourself for not swing trading it.  My story is smiliar to yours...the stock had a 20% swing...that is crazy..i was watching the level II and i was a click away from taking that profit...waited to long and then was forced to leave it alone.

Livelife,  is there a % that you will definitely take for a guaranteed gain, or do you just watch it constantly playing it by ear?
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 16, 2005, 08:18:25 AM
Thanks for your comments on TIII  :)

My plan is very simple:

1) Sell at $4, or ...
2) Sell it at the last trading day of the month.

Good luck !
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 16, 2005, 02:39:12 PM
time to unload or is it part of market condidtions today?
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: Jimbo on November 16, 2005, 03:48:40 PM
Quote from: stopthemadness on November 16, 2005, 02:39:12 PM
time to unload or is it part of market conditions today?

My take is MM's are gathering cheap shares by taking out the stops. I'm always surprised by the accuracy they hit stop orders ( here around $2.80 - $2.90 )  :'( . The volume today is very light compared to the past few days so being down a few cents with this volume shouldn't be a problem.

Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: la-onda on November 16, 2005, 04:37:05 PM
insider selling @ 3.0 to 3.15:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3791250

???
comments?
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 16, 2005, 09:12:18 PM
sure looks that way doesn't it. this didn't happen to come out aroudn 2pm today did it?
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 17, 2005, 08:55:41 AM
That is very little insider selling from the VP Electrical Engineering, it means nothing. Probably the man wanted to buy a plasma or a new car or something, so sold some of the shares he received from the employee stock option plan.

But maybe that lead some people to sell the stock. They shouldn't have done that, I believe. I'll continue with my trading plan:

Quote1) Sell at $4, or ...
2) Sell it at the last trading day of the month.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: LiveLife on November 17, 2005, 09:30:36 AM
patriotmp,

Sorry for a late response, I've been busy with NVAX postings and looking at chart trends of other "swingable" stocks.

David and other supporters of 3SOF have encouraged setting sell target before and especially after you buy.  I set the sell target of $3.15 for TIII with $0.10 gain.

Since I am a swing trader, I will watch for rebound and buy back.

David, I will watch DEZ also, thanks!
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 17, 2005, 07:28:25 PM
David, i think you had the sell target for $4 or end of the month.

is that still your target after today's performance?

thanx
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: netfishmademerich on November 17, 2005, 09:26:56 PM
Consolidation phase with a series of small declines on smaller/shrinking volume usually foreshadows a large white candle.  I think tomorrow will make or break this trade.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: tokyopua on November 17, 2005, 10:18:45 PM
netfishmademerich,

I do hope you are right.  The technicals do still seem to be in line for TIII to go up, but it was a bit concerning today to go down while most tech stocks rallied so strongly.  Perhaps its still the minor insider selling from yesterday weighing the stock down?  I am looking forward to David's analysis since its getting close to his buy in price.


On a separate note, I havent traded in a stock with this low volume before, I am curious about the way it moves on Level 2.  The current price might be 2.87 with a bid and ask of say 2.85 and 2.89, and then the next trade will be 2.93.  I dont really understand why anyone would want to trade it past the lowest price they can get? 
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stocky on November 17, 2005, 10:53:49 PM
When you put a market order on low liquidity stocks, MM rips you off. Hence those high off target buys. Sometimes its MM playing with us. But you wont see such with stocks like MSFT.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: tokyopua on November 18, 2005, 12:25:59 AM
Thanks stocky, that makes a lot of sense.  I almost never use market orders so almost forgot about them, lol.   :P
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 18, 2005, 08:25:56 AM
Thanks for your comments  :)

I've checked some of the fundamentals of this stock, and it's incredible, it has a P/E Ratio of 6.4 and earnings growth from last year was 140%  :o

I don't see any tricks here. Probably the stock came down the last 2 days because it just rose too much over the last couple of weeks. But it is still way undervalued.

I shouldn't even sell it at $4, but since this is a Fast Portfolio, I'll just keep my plan of selling at $4 or at the last day of the current month.

$2.82 was the low of the day for the last 3 trading days, that value seems to be providing support.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: shawFund on November 18, 2005, 10:06:44 AM
Going to break-down?

Am still holding.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: SmartWrasse on November 18, 2005, 10:23:25 AM
Such a low volume slide.  Could that little insider sell really have nixed all the buying interest in this stock?   Crazy!
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: shawFund on November 18, 2005, 10:27:36 AM
From daily chart, the pull-back is testing EMA(10) support of $2.66.

Three up days with big volumes.

Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: nightshade81 on November 18, 2005, 10:44:59 AM
Yes, I too was encouraged when I noticed that currently the 2.66 low was the 10 EMA.  If it breaks down below that I may have to get out and get in later.  While I agree with David that the longer term fundamental picture is great, the intense buying interest may have ceased.  This could case a drift down for a bit, even though at some point it should launch up again.  I just don't want to be caught with my money sitting around waiting for that day indefinitely.

My plan is to sell if breaks the 10 day EMA for later buyback or use David's plan if it can hold the line.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: KCScott on November 18, 2005, 12:00:30 PM
In at 2.68

Never got to the 2.50's level I was targeting and I believe this is the last time it will test this bottom
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: basonista on November 18, 2005, 12:10:57 PM
Quote from: KCScott on November 18, 2005, 12:00:30 PM
In at 2.68

Never got to the 2.50's level I was targeting and I believe this is the last time it will test this bottom

Man, I hope you are right.  The descending triangle of the last few days really worried me when I was looking at it last night.  Then to see further declines today. ::)  At least there is strong demand at $2.65.  If it is able to punch through that with no good demand below, I'll be out. :(
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: KCScott on November 18, 2005, 12:29:34 PM
Quote from: basonista on November 18, 2005, 12:10:57 PM
Quote from: KCScott on November 18, 2005, 12:00:30 PM
In at 2.68

Never got to the 2.50's level I was targeting and I believe this is the last time it will test this bottom

Man, I hope you are right.  The descending triangle of the last few days really worried me when I was looking at it last night.  Then to see further declines today. ::)  At least there is strong demand at $2.65.  If it is able to punch through that with no good demand below, I'll be out. :(


You understand how the MM can manipulate these small cap issues, right?

I see it in the under $5 issues quite a lot -

Today is a prime example: already 420K shares traded.
An MM will sell enough shares of their to trip stops all the way then accumulate those as well as their own before putting in the Buys.

Illegal as hell, but tough to detect and catch by the SEC.

It's the main reason I won't use trailing stops.
Ive gotten burned a couple times, but all in all, it's saved more money than it's lost - IMO

-------

Back to the subject which is you should feel pretty comfortable with this stock.
Fundamentals alone support this valuation.

it's tough and I can't do it, but David's advice of not watching Intraday is right on from a psychological perspective.

I believe you can easily lose site of the bigger picture watching that ticker.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: basonista on November 18, 2005, 01:06:42 PM
KC, I somewhat understand the MM tactics.  That is why I also don't like to use trailing stops and if I do use them, I position below where I think the shakeout would take the stock.  But I rarely use them so don't have to decide a shakeout price very often.

I agree that the fundamentals look pretty good on TIII.  I am bothered by the fact that while the NASDAQ is in rally mode and hits new 4 1/2 year highs, TIII declines.  I do expect some pullback after the run it's had though, just didn't expect it to bring the stock down 20%+ in just a few days.  And to see that 20% profit go away that quickly isn't fun either.  ;)
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: KCScott on November 18, 2005, 01:29:13 PM
Look at the ratio between the Buy volume on the up days and the sell volume the last 3 days:

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/TIII.png)

JMO, but other "bargain hunters" on this stock let it drift lower as it consolidates for the next run up.

The 2.66 floor looks in tact and Friday's typically more selling than buying.

Good Luck
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: shawFund on November 18, 2005, 02:22:10 PM
Last night I checked my holdings and found TIII in descending trendline.

So, I wrote: sell TIII at open and KLIC sell at open (I believe that KLIC will have a gap up).

I sold KLIC at open and re-took a position later at $7.47 but did not pull the trigger for TIII.

I can sell TIII at $2.85 at open and buy it back at $2.64 (about $1,000 difference for this miss since I have 5K).

Big mistake I will remember.

Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 18, 2005, 03:28:52 PM
got in at 2.69... looks like i'm about to go red on this one.

still sitting on a few AOB thats now tanking.

got back into nvax... tanking.

good thing i didn't get into DEX and MOVI

been a bum week for me.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: tokyopua on November 18, 2005, 03:58:51 PM
stopthemadness,

Pretty bad for me too, I got in TIII first on a smaller position and made money on a trade, then got back in at 3.09 on a larger position only to miss the op to get $2K on another trade, and now its way down.  Bought NVAX yesterday also hoping for a bounce, but sold it today in light of two things:

1.)  The delay of the vaccine funding bill and all the talk of budget cutbacks on capitol hill
2.)  All the red "sell" arrows on lycos I-watch together with what looked like large block sells here and there

I could be wrong, but it seems like staying in that stock is hoping for a partnership or a new drug, and who knows when either will happen.  In a week or two per the CC there may be new info on that, but the first CC I listened to said the same thing.

Anyway, back to TIII, would like to see a doji candlestick here, but with 5 minutes left to go, that doesnt look to be in the cards.

Quick question to David, you mentioned a very low P/E of 6.4 for the company, but etrade shows a P/E of 14ish, and yahoo says 14.92.  Does this influence your decision for Monday?
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 18, 2005, 04:06:38 PM
i would say the only saving grace for nvax was that the volume was at its lowest since oct 7... then in the next 2 weeks we hit the high $5.

only 12,000,000 the last 2 days... so maybe it's not massive overall dumping.

wierd close for tiii today too.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 21, 2005, 07:47:43 AM
Good morning !

I wouldn't touch NVAX again for some time, since many people bought the stock solely based on the Bird Flu mania, and that mania seems to have fizzle. More, the general market is in rally mode, so theme stocks are a bit forgotten. I would use any rally to unload NVAX, but good luck for all people holding.

Considering TIII, I think KCScott did well in buying on Friday.

QuoteQuick question to David, you mentioned a very low P/E of 6.4 for the company, but etrade shows a P/E of 14ish, and yahoo says 14.92.  Does this influence your decision for Monday?

No, I think Yahoo and E*Trade are still not taking into account the 3rd quarter earnings from the company. My P/E Ratio comes from annualizing the 3rd quarter earnings of $0.12 per diluted share.

I have very little doubts the stock will come back, make new highs an that I'll be able to sell at $4.

So my trading plan remains the same: take profits at $4 or sell only at the last day of the month because then the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio will be reset.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: dakdust on November 21, 2005, 09:36:28 AM
David,

You guys are doing great things and I think the "3 SOF Fast" concept is a great one, however we're near the end of the month, still have money to invest, and are holding positions, such as TIII. 

It seems unlikely with about a week to go that this will reach $4, and you advocate selling at the end of the month because thats when the cycle will begin again.  Why close out an existing position if at that time it's doing great and moving up continuously or good news comes out near the end of the month.

On December !st all positions are abandoned and unless there are replacements, we should sell off?
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: KCScott on November 21, 2005, 12:58:35 PM
Very nice movement today (so far) for TIII.
Today, volume is 5x halfway through the day.

I am also in agreement this should be held after Nov. 30, however, if David's portfolio rules dictate sell, then so be it.

Perhaps it will be a candidate for 3SOF?

I will continue to hold, regardless as I believe the uptrend will continue on past January and see

I hope the interest of those in this thread will remain continue if it gets moved to the Previous 3SOF fourm.

Good Luck to All
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 22, 2005, 09:21:51 AM
Quote from: dakdust on November 21, 2005, 09:36:28 AM
David,

You guys are doing great things and I think the "3 SOF Fast" concept is a great one, however we're near the end of the month, still have money to invest, and are holding positions, such as TIII. 

It seems unlikely with about a week to go that this will reach $4, and you advocate selling at the end of the month because thats when the cycle will begin again.  Why close out an existing position if at that time it's doing great and moving up continuously or good news comes out near the end of the month.

On December !st all positions are abandoned and unless there are replacements, we should sell off?

Thanks for your questions dakdust  :)

On the last day of the month at the close I will sell all positions and I'll buy new stocks at the open of the first day of the month. The 3 SOF Fast Portfolio is like an income job, one must get paid at the end of the month, right?

I can replace shares with other or in special cases I can buy 1 stock that I previously held.

I don't think it is impossible to see $4 in TIII before the end of the month, there are still 5 trading days in November (there's the Thanksgiving day on Thursday), that would mean an average daily rise of just, what, 5.72%  ;D

I'll continue with my trading plan for TIII, sell at $4 OR at the last trading day of the month.

Quote from: KCScott on November 21, 2005, 12:58:35 PM
Very nice movement today (so far) for TIII.
Today, volume is 5x halfway through the day.

I am also in agreement this should be held after Nov. 30, however, if David's portfolio rules dictate sell, then so be it.

Perhaps it will be a candidate for 3SOF?

I will continue to hold, regardless as I believe the uptrend will continue on past January and see

I hope the interest of those in this thread will remain continue if it gets moved to the Previous 3SOF fourm.

Good Luck to All

Yes, fundamentals for TIII are so great that the stock is a strong candidate for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

Good luck to all, and go to $4 TIII, go !

Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: gri64 on November 22, 2005, 03:12:31 PM
What happens: from +5% to -4% ? Someone big is unloading or hunting for the trial stops or any bad news that we still don't know?
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: tokyopua on November 22, 2005, 03:17:02 PM
It did this last week too when the stock hit 3.21.  I could be wrong but it seems like profit taking, there seems to be some resistance around 3.20 that its been hitting even though we got to 3.29 at one point today.  This is a pretty volatile stock, but it seems to want to go higher.  If last week is any indication, now is a good time to buy.

Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: tokyopua on November 22, 2005, 04:08:26 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on November 22, 2005, 03:17:02 PM
It did this last week too when the stock hit 3.21.  I could be wrong but it seems like profit taking, there seems to be some resistance around 3.20 that its been hitting even though we got to 3.29 at one point today.  This is a pretty volatile stock, but it seems to want to go higher.  If last week is any indication, now is a good time to buy.



Man, it was what, 2.93 when I posted, and closed at 3.15 40 minutes later!  What a nice rally.  Seems anytime somebody unloads, this baby just keeps coming back!  If we hadnt have hit 4 PM it was heading right back to 3.2 I think.  Tomorrow should be a nice day, should at least jump back to 3.2 at the open.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 22, 2005, 04:39:16 PM
that "dump" on low volume was so transparent... you knew in the last 20 minutes it would get back up. i have a good feeling about tomorrow!
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: David Randolph on November 23, 2005, 07:46:43 AM
Good morning !

I was wondering if I should buy TIII for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, so I went on looking a bit deeper into the company's fundamentals.

The last quarter was great (it was the 1st quarter), but it was influenced by several factors and seasonality:

«The Company's operations are subject to seasonal variations primarily as a result of the Company's principal products, NIDs, are typically installed on the side of homes. During the hurricane season, sales may increase based on the severity and location of hurricanes and the number of NIDs that are damaged and need replacement. Conversely, during winter months when severe weather hinders or delays the Telco's installation and maintenance of their outside plant network, the sales have been adversely affected until replacements can be installed (at which time sales increase). Accordingly, the first and fourth quarters generally contribute more revenue than the second and third quarters.»

They benefited a lot from Katrina and Rita and winter will bring lower sales. That means my extrapolation of this first quarter earnings maybe wasn't accurate (the company had net earnings per share of $0.12, in a year it would be $0.48, and that would mean a P/E Ratio of $3.14/$0.48 = 6.54, which would be terribly cheap.

Also, I'm not so bullish on small caps now, as you can read on my Current General Market Overview (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3785.new#new)

So I'm not willing to wait to see if the stock will hit $4, I will take profits around today's open.
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: la-onda on November 27, 2005, 03:57:45 PM
still holding  ;D
why?

TIII: Short Interest UP 389.2% to 76.5K in Nov 2005
Friday , November 25, 2005 13:21 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for TII Network Technologies, Incorporated (NasdaqSC: TIII) INCREASED 389.2% to 76,539 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.

SYMBOL  OCTOBER        NOVEMBER       CHANGE       %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
TIII              15,645          76,539         +60,894      +389.22%           1

Based on TIII's 20-day average daily share volume of 554,272, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

please read carefully:
http://www.tii-industries.com/pdfs/05r1109-TIII-06Q1_Earnings-FINAL.pdf
updated chart:
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: Gu$tavo on November 28, 2005, 11:53:14 AM
We are getting an interesting trend.. in again @3.25..
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: la-onda on November 28, 2005, 12:29:53 PM
David: ON FIRE   >:D >:D
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: Gu$tavo on November 28, 2005, 02:57:33 PM
nice nice nice  :D
I wonder if this wiil pass David's filters tomorrow , to join to 3sof portfolio......
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: stopthemadness on November 28, 2005, 09:16:42 PM
wow, what a day.

took some profits at the end of the day but so glad i held from last week.

i think David's first call about $4 or last day of the month may have been the right on.

let's see what happens tomorrow!
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: la-onda on November 29, 2005, 04:05:32 AM
TIII: Jumps +7.51%; Vol +73%; Last 90 Min of Trading

Monday , November 28, 2005 16:22 ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of TII Network Technologies, Incorporated (NasdaqSC: TIII) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: TIII      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE              $3.46         $3.72        +7.51%
VOLUME           807,500     1,396,600       +72.95%
#TRADES              375           729       +94.40%
DAY-HI             $3.49         $3.72       LATE-HI
DAY-LO             $3.05         $3.05           N/A
TODAY'S RAiDAR HEADLINES for TIII:

11/28/2005 13:31 TIII: Volume Spike; 42% > 20-adsv, Stock +12.98% - knobias
11/28/2005 11:25 TIII: New 52-Wk High @ $3.430 up 12.83% - knobias
11/28/2005 05:00 TIII: Short Interest UP 389.2% to 76.5K in Nov 2005 - knobias


Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: la-onda on December 01, 2005, 05:07:12 PM
updated chart; still invested  ;)
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: KCScott on December 05, 2005, 01:00:53 PM
Stock is at a 5 year high.

Targets anyone?
Title: Re: Fast Loving TIII
Post by: KCScott on December 17, 2005, 04:01:30 PM
A Very strange ride for TIII lately:

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/TIII12-16.png)

29% retracement on No News

Recovered 14% Thursday and Friday.

Should be interesting Monday