NOTE: THERE WAS A 3/2 SPLIT IN LATE DECEMBER. THE NUMBERS AND CHARTS IN THE FIRST THREE POSTS ARE PRE-SPLIT - Updated 2/5/06
I'm in NSSC at an average price of $13.50. I think it's crazy cheap at current prices. Profitable, strong growth esp. the bottom line, low P/E (20 trailing), strong cash flow from operations, not much debt..... I predict NSSC trades between $20-$30 by this time next year. Avg daily volume is light ~20k shares or so per day. Less than 10M shares outstanding. I'd like to see the avg volume increase to 100k so someone can call Cramer about it and he can give it a few booyahs and get it on some more radar screens.
Headline from last earnings release:
NAPCO Security Systems, Inc. Reports Record Results for Fiscal 2005
Tuesday September 20, 8:35 am ET
Revenues Increase 12% to $65.2 Million, Net Income Surges 69% to $5.6 Million
Fully Diluted Earnings Per Share Rise 59%
Profile from Yahoo Finance:
NAPCO Security Systems, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, distribution, and sale of security alarm products and door security devices for commercial and residential installations worldwide. Its products include automatic communicators, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators, digital keypad systems, door security devices, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors. The company also designs, engineers, and markets the software and control panels for access control systems...
Can I get a booyah for this call? Made a nice move today. I reiterate my target of $20+
It's been a nice week for NSSC. I would wait for a consolidation in the form of a flag or pennant and look for an entry at that point. Nice to see the increased investor interest arriving in the form of bigger volumes.
Breakout of ascending triangle on Monday and a pullback to the breakout point on Friday. Barring news of some sort, I suspect it will trade sideways in a range for a few weeks.
NSSC did a 3:2 split in late December so the charts I posted previously may look out of whack.
QuoteI'm in NSSC at an average price of $13.50.
Adjusted for the split, my avg price is
$9.00My target for 2006 was $20 pre-split, which equates to $13.33 now. It hit that target on Thursday. Setting a new target of $16.
Did an analysis of the weekly chart for NSSC and I calculate a target of $15.50 based on the ascending triangle breakout that occurred at $9.50. I will likely take some off the table there. The volume has been flowing in recent months. It isn't apparant on the weekly chart below, but average daily volume has approximately doubled since September.
Hit 15 =- if it stays, it should be on the ibd 100 on monday for some added exposure
NSSC is a great company. I had it a couple of years ago when it ran from 12 up to the mid 20s going into a split. I sold it then but in hindsight I would have made a killing had I held it long term. My guess is this will run to the mid 20s again.
Quote from: snowcat on February 16, 2006, 04:34:25 PM
Hit 15 =- if it stays, it should be on the ibd 100 on monday for some added exposure
Snowcat - IBD 100 would be great exposure! I'll buy a copy of IBD at lunch on Monday and see if it's made the list. Good to see you and runner2847 posting on this thread. It was just me talking to the wall here up til now. I've got $15.50 as a short-term technical target, but I might just hold all my shares through that point because I can envision NSSC getting up into the $20's this year.
IBD comes out on Sat. I will let you know if it is on the list. It has to be above 15.
Another one to watch that should make the list is NOIZ - awsome chart and big break out today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=NOIZ
ERS which was #1 for a few weeks, took a 17% haircut but has been VERY strong the past few days. They sell Aluminum.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ers
Tho one I liked, FFEX, took a 20% dive with CEO problems
NSSC debuted on the "100" at #12
You can get a free 2 week subscription to the paper and access to the website:
http://www.investors.com/offers/freetrialicom.asp?lid=y2004&src=AB1YKD7&req=2
it is the only paper that teaches you how to make $.
Also get the book "How to Make Money in Stocks" by Wm. O'Neil - it is a guide on how to use the paper and the CANSLIM system. Costs about $10.
IBD's ranking is based on past performance. NSSC has a great chart, but sales have been declining.
Thanks for the update Snowcat! #12 right on, maybe that will drive the stock to continued highs! $15.50 technical target hit Friday but I did not sell. Why sell at $15 when I might be able to get $25 soon enough? Where do you see declining sales? Sales growth has been steady - I don't see any declines looking year-to-year.
Net sales for the three months ended December 31, 2005 increased 8% to $17.2 million from $16.0 million reported for the same quarter a year earlier. Net income for the quarter increased 70% to $1.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, as compared to net income of $872,000, or $0.06 per diluted share, for the same period last year.
Net sales for the six months ended December 31, 2005 increased 7% to $31.4 million from $29.5 million for the prior year period. Net income for the six months ended December 31, 2005 increased 66% to $2.3 million or $0.17 per diluted share as compared to $1.4 million or $0.10 per diluted share in the prior year period.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060207/20060207005609.html?.v=1
I'll pick up IBD on Monday on my lunch break! Maybe cut out the NSSC listing and tape it to my wall 8)
You are right about the sales increasing. I must have been looking at the wrong data - or something.
Stocks added to the IBD 100
http://stockcharts.com/candleglance/?%20AQNT,%20NSSC,%20INFA,%20NOIZ,%20DW,%20LMS,%20CHS,%20PSYS,%20WSO,%20HITT,%20GWR,%20CLB,%20BOT,%20LVS,%20CWTR,%20CRI%7CB%7CL7
Here are the top 10 under $10 from InvestorInformationCenter:
http://stockcharts.com/candleglance/?GIGM,HOM,SHOE,LPSN,CYB,ININ,TLF,EXFO,HPOL,IINT|B|A12,26,9
These are based on future proposed earnings, fwiw
Snowy - how can you tell which stocks are new to the IBD 100? I bought a copy today - does it list somewhere how long a stock has been in the IBD 100 or which stocks are new? Great to see NSSC there at #12! Just as exciting was to see AQNT at #11 cause I work at AQNT. Hopefully the IBD listing generates some buying and my stock options go up! ;D I see from your list AQNT was just added. I wonder why it wasn't added months ago? Any ideas what parameter was holding it back? Thanks Snow. Applaud to you!
You will notice all stocks are ranked on a scale from 1-99 and A to E. in different categories.
Stocks with the highest ratings will appear on the list if they are over 15.
I look at stocks in the 13-14 range with high ratings that I can assume will be on the list eventually - and I buy them. Most of the info can be gotten from Thursday's paper which has a list of the best stocks that the funds are buying.
You can compare from one week to another to see what is added, or there are many sites that track the IBD 100 and Canslim.
Get a free 2 week sub or an online sub. IBD is the best tool to make money.
Here is another list:
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/own0130_06.html
NOIZ and ERS are up over a buck today
Bounce off trendline support today. Another leg up in the near future? If so it should knock at $20 this time.
Strong sell signal...Very bearish chart
For those who like value stocks, NSSC is trading at a low historical price and announced a share buyback last week.
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/napco-security-systems-inc-announces/n20070316090609990021
It's been good to me in the past. I'm evaluating it for re-entry. Target of $10 in the next 18 months? Market-willing of course. 2007 PE is 17. 2008 PE is 12 (per Reuters).