Today is November 22 and there are only 6 trading days left in the month. As you know the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio is reset at the end of each month and it starts over again on the first day of the month.
The objective is to make money trading stocks every single month. Yesterday was very good, with the portfolio rising 8.46%, to a gain of 9.96% in November.
After my exploration and filtering of the 11,000 stocks in my database I got to a short list of 3 stocks. They were CRAY, FNSR and Q. From these 3 I think the one that fits better the 3 SOF Fast philosophy is CRAY, since it is the one with the highest short term potential (although it has more risk too).
Here's the profile of the company: Cray Inc. (CRAY) The Group's principal activities are to design, develop, market and service high performance computer systems, commonly known as supercomputers.
Now the all history chart where you can see the stock is at a low point after a steep decline in 2004 and 2005:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=9886;image)
Yesterday there were signs of life, with the stock rising 21% on volume above average:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=9887;image)
It looks like the trend has changed, from bearish to bullish. Different insiders have been buying (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/insiders.asp?siteID=mktw&symb=CRAY) stocks of the company, which is always a good sign.
The company is selling more in 2005 than in 2004 (99.796M in 2005 versus 72.713M for the same period in 2004) and net loss was reduced from -169M to -55M. At the last 10-Q the company also says «Product revenue for the first three quarters of 2005 does not include revenue for several systems that were previously shipped and installed, and for which revenue recognition is pending customer acceptances; we expect to recognize revenue for certain of these large Cray XT3 systems in the last quarter of 2005 and accordingly, we currently expect our fourth quarter product revenue to increase over third quarter.»
I believe the stock will at least close the first gap we got on the chart below, which closes at $2.01, until the end of this month:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=9888;image)
Accordingly, the trading plan is to buy CRAY at today's open, 33.33% of the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio capital as usual, and take profits around $2.01. I don't want to define an exit with a loss strategy today, I'll do that on the next update if necessary.
This means the trading plan is to buy the open and take profits around $2.01, otherwise, hold.
Hey David,
This looks like a good play. I know when you are interested in a stock you just ensure you are in, ususally with a market order. I just wanted to add the stock as risen 30%+ in the last few trading days and the RSI is around 80 could be overbought in the short term and a pullback might come before the holiday, for those waiting to get in at a better price. GL
This had its break out yesterday at 1.35 so many got in for it but the added boost came when Briefing come mentioned it:
Cray: Color on stock action (CRAY) 1.52 +0.16: McAdams Wright Ragen says they are aware of nothing particularly new out on CRAY +11.8% this morning that is driving the stock. However, firm says that it is feeling more positive about CRAY following last week's High Performance Supercomputing Show in Seattle, where they heard positive feedback from CRAY customers, including Oakridge National Labs, the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, the Army High Performance Research Lab, and the Arctic Research Lab. Firm says that all indicated they want to extend their relationships with Cray as the co rolls out and upgrades their systems. CRAY also had 18 systems in the "Top 500 Supercomputers" report that was issued Nov 14, vs 9 systems in that list a year ago, and the co had 5 systems in the Top 20. Firm says that CRAY is higher-risk, speculative Buy, but the upside is significant. Maintains $4 tgt.
Quote from: patriotmp on November 22, 2005, 06:20:52 AM
Hey David,
This looks like a good play. I know when you are interested in a stock you just ensure you are in, ususally with a market order. I just wanted to add the stock as risen 30%+ in the last few trading days and the RSI is around 80 could be overbought in the short term and a pullback might come before the holiday, for those waiting to get in at a better price. GL
You were right patriotmp, the stock came down a bit so you could get a better price than I did (I also didn't buy at the open, it was too high and 5 seconds later the stock was 4% below the opening price).
Quote from: metro on November 22, 2005, 11:53:41 AM
This had its break out yesterday at 1.35 so many got in for it but the added boost came when Briefing come mentioned it:
Cray: Color on stock action (CRAY) 1.52 +0.16: McAdams Wright Ragen says they are aware of nothing particularly new out on CRAY +11.8% this morning that is driving the stock. However, firm says that it is feeling more positive about CRAY following last week's High Performance Supercomputing Show in Seattle, where they heard positive feedback from CRAY customers, including Oakridge National Labs, the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, the Army High Performance Research Lab, and the Arctic Research Lab. Firm says that all indicated they want to extend their relationships with Cray as the co rolls out and upgrades their systems. CRAY also had 18 systems in the "Top 500 Supercomputers" report that was issued Nov 14, vs 9 systems in that list a year ago, and the co had 5 systems in the Top 20. Firm says that CRAY is higher-risk, speculative Buy, but the upside is significant. Maintains $4 tgt.
That's great information metro, thanks a lot :)
With that $4 price target and the sentence «Firm says that all indicated they want to extend their relationships with Cray as the co rolls out and upgrades their systems» I believe CRAY will make another push to $2.01 before the end of the month.
I'll continue with my trading plan of selling CRAY at $2.01. No downside considered for now.
DJ Cray Chief Scientist Leaves To Join Microsoft
11/25/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
11-25-05 0616ET
Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ Cray Chief Scientist To Leave For Job At Microsoft
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Supercomputer maker Cray Inc. (CRAY) co-founder and Chief Scientist Burton Smith will leave the company to join Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Cray said Friday.
Smith, who is also a member of the board, will resign from both the positions Dec. 7, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
In an attachment to the filing, Smith said he was leaving Cray for "a new and very different opportunity at Microsoft," but didn't say what role he would play there.
Smith has held the chief scientist and director posts since early 1988. He served as chairman from 1988 to 1999.
-By Ed Welsch, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-1356;
[email protected] (END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-25-05 0711ET
Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Thanks for posting the news fill_the_gap :)
I bought CRAY and CRAY is down 10.7% from my buying price. What to do now? Design a trading plan.
I wouldn't like to see the stock closing below the midpoint of the big white candle, that would take out much validity to it. That midpoint is $1.48. Considering the upside, I'll take profits at $2.01 or before the close of the last trading day of the month, which will be Wednesday.
Out at 1.45 pre market-
You should all do well now! :D
Quote from: boatguy on November 25, 2005, 08:50:36 AM
Out at 1.45 pre market-
You should all do well now! :D
Actually I think a gap down at the open is more positive than if the stock were to open higher. I will only take my loss if near the closing bell the stock is trading below $1.48, otherwise I'll continue holding some more time.
Thanks for sharing :)
$1.48 is also the short term 38.2% fib retracement level so should be good support today....
We also have a longer term bounce off the 32.8% fib level. The 3 black crows developing aren't very pretty though. David, I know you will stick to your plan of selling under $1.48 but would the fib bounce normally be a good enough signal to keep this kind of stock or would this still be a sell based on the last 3 trading day's action?
Was this sold today then? I still don't see it closed under the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio.
(Sorry I am new at 3SOF)
Quote from: ASR831 on November 25, 2005, 03:24:03 PM
Was this sold today then? I still don't see it closed under the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio.
(Sorry I am new at 3SOF)
Welcome to 3SOF, ASR831! David sticks to his trading plan, so since he didn't say otherwise, he sold it before the close. He will always outline his trading plan and then stick to it. Updates on the portfolio page aren't done for a day so that 3 SOF members have the information before the general public - a benefit of paid membership. So, it should show up some time over the weekend.
I am still holding and have decided to sell on a print below the fib bounce at $1.39. I'm not crazy about the news of their lead scientis and co-founder leaving but it may be priced into the stock since CRAY actually moved up after the gap down this morning. We'll see what Monday brings!
Good evening!
Nice work - applaud basonista :)
Quote
I am still holding and have decided to sell on a print below the fib bounce at $1.39. I'm not crazy about the news of their lead scientist and co-founder leaving but it may be priced into the stock since CRAY actually moved up after the gap down this morning. We'll see what Monday brings!
I'm holdind too but just because completely forgot the market was about to close at 1.00 pm today >:( .
Now as David said I have to design a trading plan :-\.
By looking at the chart (could be wrong) I see similar pattern between the 1st and the 2nd run. If that's the case we might see more downside before we go up since the 1st run retraced almost to 61.8% level (at the moment with the 2nd run we are sitting @ 50% level). Well there is a support @ 1.32 (which happens to be 61.8% retracement level) but will it hold ?
As Basonista said the "bad" news might have been priced into the stock since CRAY actually moved up after the gap down. Having said that I think that support @ 1.32 most probably will hold (IMO). But that is another 8% down from here. I'm down 14% already and I'd rather cut my loses and move on then sitting and waiting to find out I miscalculated.
So I'll be looking for exit point near the opening >:(.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=10175)
Good luck to all still holding !
;D
Yes, according to plan, I sold CRAY before the close at $1.43. But I think you guys that held will do better, the candlestick is bullish and after all the stock just made a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous bullish move.
Good luck :)
Update : Tuesday, 11/29/05
State briefs: Lab plans to make supercomputer faster
OAK RIDGE
The Cray XT3 supercomputer known as "Jaguar" already is one of the fastest machines in the world, but Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers have plans to make it even faster.
The Department of Energy facility hopes to quadruple Jaguar's speed by next year, from 25 teraflops to 100 teraflops, or 100 trillion calculations per second.
"It's going to be a challenge, but I think we're going to get close," said Thomas Zacharia, associate lab director and computer chief.
Congress boosted 2006 funding to help make that happen, from the $25 million proposed by the Bush administration up to $55 million.
The Cray XT3 is ranked as the 10th fastest computer in the world and the fastest U.S. machine available for open scientific (nonmilitary) research. The lab plans to expand the supercomputer from its configuration of 56 cabinets to about 120 cabinets and double the number of processors.
To date, the Jaguar has yielded the first 3-D numerical simulations of an ignition flame, which should help in the design of next-generation combustion devices, and uniquely precise views of molecular structures that may be used to combat genetic diseases.
"I think Oak Ridge is the place to be to do science in the United States," Zacharia said.
http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051129/NEWS01/511290322/1006/NEWS
As we can see on the mid-term chart, CRAY formed resistance at the $1.35 level:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=10518;image)
When David bought the stock, it had broken out of a short term ascending triangle from exactly this $1.35 level:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=10519;image)
$1.35 was tested on Monday and held up followed with a nice up move yesterday. I had decided to sell at one of the fib levels (forget which one now) a little higher than $1.35 but saw that buyers were building up at that level so decided to wait and see if that would hold which it did. Tech has been showing a little weakness this week so we could see another retest of support but I would be surprised to see it drop that low again. My stop is set for a break of $1.35 support. There was such strong buying pressure at that point that a break of this level will invalidate it for my trading plan.
I also don't look at the co-founder as leaving as necessarily bad news. This could be a chance for CRAY to get some young, new blood with some fresh ideas to help them along. We'll see if the market agrees. :)
Looking good. :)
I am cautiously optimistic that the current bull run will continue through December. I am also pleased with CRAY bouncing off support and then moving up when the markets were generally moving lower. I really feel that CRAY looks good at this point and has a lot of upside potential left in it for the short term.
But as usual, do your own DD. ;)
Anyone still holding?
I got in on the last retracement and have seen nice gains so far. RSI is getting close to overbought territory, imo, but stil has some room.
Opinions?
... >:( can't seem to post my nice annotated chart!
I was holding until yesterday. I have been impressed with how CRAY is holding up in the face of high selling pressure. I thought that pressure was going to get it towards the close yesterday when it dropped to 1.65 and it looked like the buyers were going away while the sellers were jumping in. I also had to leave right before the close so decided to sell only to return and see that it did rally and closed at HOD. :(
Quote from: basonista on December 07, 2005, 08:00:03 AM
I was holding until yesterday. I have been impressed with how CRAY is holding up in the face of high selling pressure. I thought that pressure was going to get it towards the close yesterday when it dropped to 1.65 and it looked like the buyers were going away while the sellers were jumping in. I also had to leave right before the close so decided to sell only to return and see that it did rally and closed at HOD. :(
Hello basonista !
I would forget about it now, volume on this second leg up was lower than on the previous one, possibly $1.70 - $1.73 will be a resistance level for some time.
You did well, I sold much lower than you did because of a stop loss.
Good luck for your next trades !
update >:D >:D
Cray Inc. Announces Selected Preliminary 2005 Results and Updates 2006 Outlook
Tuesday , January 10, 2006 16:00 ET
SEATTLE, WA, Jan 10, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Global supercomputer leader Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) today announced selected preliminary results for the year 2005 and provided additional information about 2006.
In the November earnings press release, the company indicated that total estimated 2005 revenue would be in the range of $195 million. Based on preliminary results, total revenue is now expected to be about $199 million. Cash and short-term investments as of December 31, 2005 are expected to be approximately $46 million and Cray has not borrowed against its $30 million credit facility.
Cray expects to announce fourth quarter and full year 2005 results in the first part of March when year-end results are final.
Cray also announced that it had received important customer acceptances in the fourth quarter of 2005, including one from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), where the company installed a large Cray X1E(TM) system. Cray also received acceptances for large Cray XT3(TM) systems installed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center and the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS). It is expected that all of the customer acceptances will be included in 2005 revenue except KMA, which is not expected to be recognized as revenue until the fourth quarter of 2006.
"We finished 2005 strongly, exceeding our projected revenue, improving our cash position and securing a number of key customer acceptances," commented Peter Ungaro, President and CEO. "Our focus on reducing operating expenses has also been successful. We are beginning to benefit from cost containment measures put in place over the past six months," Ungaro said. "Though it is still early in the year to provide a more refined outlook, we expect to grow our business in 2006 and return to profitability in the second half of the year."
While a wide range of results remains possible, Cray anticipates annual revenue in 2006 will be higher than 2005 levels, likely growing between 5 and 15 percent. The company expects that the second half of 2006 will be stronger than the first half, with approximately 65 percent of total annual revenue to be recorded in the second half of the year. The second quarter is anticipated to be the lowest in terms of revenue. While the first half of 2006 is expected to incur a moderate operating loss, the second half will likely show an operating profit.
The first half of 2006 will be affected by three key developments:
-- Delays in U.S. government funding: Cray reported that U.S. government
appropriations legislation that funds the Department of Energy and the
Department of Defense for Fiscal Year 2006 was signed into law in November
and at the end of December 2005, respectively. Because of these and other
possible delays, the timing of when Cray customers will receive funding for
their projects remains unclear, and the company may not be able to record
revenue for certain installations until the second half of 2006.
-- Planned product upgrades: Cray reiterated its plan to upgrade the Cray
XT3 systems to AMD's dual core technology and is on target to implement the
upgrades in the summer of 2006. As a result, the majority of the Cray XT3
upgrade revenue will likely occur in the second half of the year. Other
product upgrades could delay recording revenue until 2007.
-- Customer orders and acceptances: Cray is currently engaged in a number
of large procurements. However, the timing of any orders and acceptances
resulting from these procurements remains unclear, and it is likely that a
significant portion of any revenue related to these procurements would be
recognized in the second half of 2006.
Cray announced that it will present at the Needham & Company Eighth Annual Growth Conference in New York on Thursday, January 12, 2006 at 4:00 p.m. (Eastern Time). The Cray presentation will be available to the public via live audio webcast. To listen to the webcast, go to the Investors section of the Cray website at http://investors.cray.com. An archived version of the webcast will be available on the Cray website for 90 days.
AH up 21%:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=CRAY
Needham Conference slides (16):
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/98/983/98390/items/179268/NeedhamConference2006.pdf
updated chart:
Partial Repost From The Personal Logs Board - Melf's Workshop:
#3 - February 15, 2007 - CRAY reported earnings of a $0.33 profit vs. a loss of $0.42 in the prior year. Additionally, CRAY won an $85 million British supercomputer contract. What was the reaction to that good news?
CRAY broke out above a Symmetical Triangle, crossing 13.23, putting 16.94 IN PLAY, took out both highs of the pattern (13.45 and 13.32), and closed near the high of the day.
Big difference between Friday's reaction to good news , and the prior two reactions to good news.
Friday's (February 16) response was a tempered, bullish response (Symmetrical Triangle breakout) that held up into the close. No huge "Gap To Crap" over-reaction to the good news.
If we were watching CRAY prior to, or on Friday morning (unfortunately, I wasn't), we can structure a nice risk: reward trade:
Breakout at 13.23. Target IN PLAY is 16.94. Reward if it gets MADE: 28% gain.
Stop loss: Below the 12.00 low, prior to the breakout (so, 11.99): Risk: 9.4%
Risk: Reward on the trade: 1:3.
Stop loss also could be 12.78, below Friday's 12.79 low. Risk: only 3.4%. That would improve the risk: reward to 1:8.
Fundamentally, CRAY is a turnaround story. This Fiscal Year's estimate is a loss of $0.58. The prior Fiscal Year was a loss of $2.92.
:P
Next Fiscal Year estimate is a gain of $0.48, so things are on the mend. :)
Summary comment:
Watch the market's reaction to the fundamentals. Markets don't always trade in tandem with the fundamentals, be they good or bad, and the chart/technicals can be of great assistance in helping us to determine how a stock is trading, vis a vis the fundamentals.
Do the fundamentals and technicals agree, or disagree?
My opinion is that "When the fundamentals and the technicals disagree, defer to the technicals, or at least give them strong consideration."
Bought CRAY at 13.11. Stop: 11.99. Risk: a loss of 8.5%.
in @ 13.3
fyi:
Cray initiated with "outperform"
Thursday, January 11, 2007 9:58:08 AM ET
Nomura Equity Research
NEW YORK, January 11 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Northland Securities initiate coverage of Cray Inc (ticker: CRAY) with an "outperform" rating. The target price is set to $17.50.
&
Cray reinitiated with "buy"
Thursday, January 04, 2007 2:58:32 AM ET
Needham & Co
NEW YORK, January 4 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Needham & Co reinitiate coverage of Cray Inc (ticker: CRAY) with a "buy" rating. The target price is set to $15
cheers
O.
Thanks for the information on the upgrades, Oliver.
The top of the Ascending Triangle on the daily chart that I posted at the weekend comes in today at 13.229, so we'd like to see a close of 13.23, or better.
She's currently BID 13.38...ASK 13.39
Good luck to us! ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 20, 2007, 09:50:45 AM
Bought CRAY at 13.11. Stop: 11.99. Risk: a loss of 8.5%.
Sold 25% of my CRAY at 14.34. Gain: 9.4%
Raising stop of the remaining 25% to a fractional gain, above my entry. Risk: none, excluding a gap down.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 23, 2007, 03:29:30 PM
Bought CRAY at 13.11. Stop: 11.99. Risk: a loss of 8.5%.
Sold 25% of my CRAY at 14.34. Gain: 9.4%
Raising stop of the remaining 25% to a fractional gain, above my entry. Risk: none, excluding a gap down.
[/quote]
Sold remaining 75% CRAY at 13.23. Gain: 0.9%. Gain on the trade: 3%.