3SOF

gaining mom.  Should be good at least till $5.

Excuse my chart notes, a little unorthodx, but it gets the job done.

Happy trading!

Under SEC cloud. Today's action only due to SUNW purchase of a networking storage company. Spke me be shortlived, i assume.

RADNOR, Pa., May 24, 2005 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- The following statement was issued today by the law firm of Schiffrin & Barroway, LLP:

Notice is hereby given that a class action lawsuit was filed in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California on behalf of all securities purchasers of Brocade Communication Systems, Inc. (BRCD, Trade) ("Brocade" or the "Company") between February 21, 2001 and May 15, 2005 inclusive (the "Class Period").

If you wish to discuss this action or have any questions concerning this notice or your rights or interests with respect to these matters, please contact Schiffrin & Barroway, LLP (Marc A. Topaz, Esq. or Darren J. Check, Esq.) toll-free at 1-888-299-7706 or 1-610-667-7706, or via e-mail at [email protected].

The complaint charges Brocade, Gregory L. Reyes and Antonio Canova with violations of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. More specifically, the Complaint alleges that the Company failed to disclose and misrepresented the following material adverse facts which were known to defendants or recklessly disregarded by them: (1) that Brocade improperly accounted for the cost of stock-based compensation; (2) that Brocade did not follow appropriate option granting guidelines; (3) that the Company lacked adequate internal controls; and (4) that as a consequence of the foregoing the Company's financial results were in violation of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and were materially inflated at all relevant times.

On January 6, 2005, the Company announced that it expected to restate its financial statements for fiscal years ending 2002 and 2003 to record additional stock-based compensation expense as a result of an internal review. The news shocked the market. Shares of Brocade fell $0.52 per share or 7.51 percent, on January 7, 2005, to close at $6.40 per share. On January 24, 2005, the Company announced that the Company expected to record additional stock-based compensation charges. On this news shares of Brocade fell another $0.57 per share or about 10 percent, on January 24 and January 25, 2005, to close at $5.83 per share. Then, on May 16, 2005, before the markets opened, the Company announced that the Company will restate its financial statements for the fiscal years ending 2002 through 2004 to record additional charges for stock-based compensation expense. On this news shares of Brocade fell $0.12 per share or 2.91 percent, on May 17, 2005, to close at $4.01 per share.

Plaintiff seeks to recover damages on behalf of class members and is represented by the law firm of Schiffrin & Barroway, which prosecutes class actions in both state and federal courts throughout the country. Schiffrin & Barroway is a driving force behind corporate governance reform, and has recovered in excess of a billion dollars on behalf of institutional and high net worth individual investors. For more information about Schiffrin & Barroway, or to sign up to participate in this action online, please visit http://www.sbclasslaw.com.

If you are a member of the class described above, you may, not later than July 18, 2005, move the Court to serve as lead plaintiff of the class, if you so choose. A lead plaintiff is a representative party that acts on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation. In order to be appointed lead plaintiff, the Court must determine that the class member's claim is typical of the claims of other class members, and that the class member will adequately represent the class. Under certain circumstances, one or more class members may together serve as "lead plaintiff." Your ability to share in any recovery is not, however, affected by the decision whether or not to serve as a lead plaintiff. You may retain Schiffrin & Barroway, or other counsel of your choice, to serve as your counsel in this action.


CONTACT:  Schiffrin & Barroway, LLP 
               Marc A. Topaz, Esq. 
               Darren J. Check, Esq. 
               280 King of Prussia Road 
               Radnor, PA 19087 
               1-888-299-7706 (toll-free) or 1-610-667-7706 
               Or by e-mail at [email protected] 

SOURCE Schiffrin & Barroway, LLP


Schiffrin & Barroway, LLP: Marc A. Topaz, Esq. or Darren J. Check, Esq., 
+1-888-299-7706, +1-610-667-7706 or [email protected] 

http://www.prnewswire.com 

Copyright (C) 2005 PR Newswire. All rights reserved.

BUSINESS SUMMARY   
Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. engages in the design, development, marketing, sale, and support of data storage networking and application infrastructure management solutions. It offers storage networking switches, which provide bandwidth and high-speed routing of data; and support key applications, such as data backup, remote mirroring, and high-availability clustering, as well as transaction processing applications, including enterprise resource planning and data warehousing. The company also offers SAN Management Operating System that provides the infrastructure for deploying SANs, as well as offers management tools that enable end-users to manage and administer their SANs; and The SilkWorm Fabric Application Platform, which is designed to host SAN fabric-based storage management applications while integrating with existing Brocade SAN infrastructures. In addition, it provides Tapestry Application Infrastructure solutions, which comprise software and/or systems that are connected to a customer's shared storage environment to provide new capabilities for the customer that extend and complement the SAN connectivity and management of its SilkWorm switches. The company also offers a range of professional services to assist customers in the design, implementation, and operation of their SAN, and to provide extended customer support. Its products are marketed, sold, and supported worldwide primarily through various distribution partners, including original equipment manufacturer partners, value-added distributors, and reseller partners, including systems integrators. The company operates in Western Europe and the greater Asia Pacific region. Brocade Communications Systems was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

(from premium board)

Quote from: Terliso on May 24, 2006, 03:00:30 PM
Shorted BRCD just now .... ;)

Shorted it @ $5.92

Im in with you on this one around 5.92 too! :) last couple days was a little hard to watch I set my stop loss at 6.37. Today was good sign we can have more downside. Keep in touch terliso im looking to cover around 5.50s

Quote from: nullzero on May 30, 2006, 05:49:29 PM
Im in with you on this one around 5.92 too! :) last couple days was a little hard to watch I set my stop loss at 6.37. Today was good sign we can have more downside. Keep in touch terliso im looking to cover around 5.50s

That is right Nullzero... last week, emotions kicks in right after I shorted it because BRCD keeps coming up but I keep fighting my emotion now I'm just down 6 cents.


I'm looking to cover BRCD around $4.80 or the touch of the 50(SMA) weekly scale -- if I have the chance ;)
--- My stop loss still in place @ 6.45 that would be a loss of 8.95%

BRCD Chart Updated:

BRCD Chart 2:

Good looking short. I may join you in the morning if the market shows a continuance of today's weakness. I like short plays that have rallied a bit but are rejected at a moving average like the 20 ema, 50 sma, or 200 sma. BRCD was rejected at the 50.

Quote from: nullzero on June 05, 2006, 03:04:22 PM
Hey terliso still hold BRCD? Im still in that sucker just seems to be hesistant on going down. I covered my DHI a day ago in the low 26s :( i missed out on todays gain

I'm still holding... Currently trading @ 6.16
My stop @ $6.45 still standing ;)

I'm now only holding 3 stocks all short
PHM, COGN, BRCD

hi,
shorting brcd. 605. :P
open below 6 in the morning?
maxi

BRCD looks good for a breakdown... Lets watch this guy im in at 5.92 looking to cover mid to low 5s

Quote from: rickjust on June 05, 2006, 05:29:52 PM
hi,
shorting brcd. 605. :P
open below 6 in the morning?
maxi

Good pick up rickjust ;)

BRCD is having a hard time breaking the 50SMA ;) looking good for a breakdown...
I'm still in RED with Nullzero @ 5.92..

I'm also short BRCD and I'm waiting patiently. It will break to the down side. Good luck

hi,
after such a bearish day with brcd holding on this looks set to go higher tomorrow
max

hi,
still short. lots of selling at the bid for the last couple of days but price holds on. is this manipulation? waiting for the big drop.
maxi

BRCD still sitting on the trendline but indicators are going bearish now (WEEKLY & DAILY scale)

I'll HOLD short ;)

Patience is winning ;) :D

whats your target for brcd? i was thinking 5.50 but now maybe even 5? what you think

Quote from: nullzero on June 10, 2006, 12:52:49 AM
whats your target for brcd? i was thinking 5.50 but now maybe even 5? what you think

I'm not that good predicting target.


The only weakness i'm seeing right now on BRCD are:
1) Price is below 50sma daily scale
2) Price is below 9sma weekly & daily scale
3) Tracing down weekly MACD Histogram
4) Bearish MACD Lines (daily & weekly)

BRCD's has been sitting on bunch of supports & the Bear volume still weak to bring this boy down (as a shorter, we need more bear volume!!)...
For monday --- A break from $5.73 trendline (it looks like heading that way ;)) will put us in a very nice short position ;)

i'm still sittin' and a waitin'
fridays close was good for shorts as that is when it made it's move into the 580's with a close 1 penny above it's low.
i have been watching the tape the last few days and there hhas been nothing but sellers.
let's see what monday brings.
glta
maxi
exellent analysis terlisa

Alister, nullzero and maxi,

BRCD is an interesting chart.  There's a good case for the bulls here, as well as for the bears.

The Bullish Case:

1. The trend since late in 2005 is bullish. 

Since the April 7 high, the stock has been trading in a Bull Flag/Bull Channel.  It's long in the tooth to be a Bull Flag basis the daily chart, but it looks more like a Bull Flag basis the weekly chart.

2. The slope connecting the highs is -0.1522, so I created that exact same slope for the bottom of the channel.

The bottom of the channel was broken on May 15, where I noted that the 3-Day pattern looks like a Bullish Morning Star.  That break, however, held above trendline off the November, 2005 low (purple trendline), as Alister pointed out.

To determine whether or not the bottom of the channel (green) is meaningful, we want to see if it holds after the May 19 rally to 6.29 (#2 circled in blue).

The next day, May 20, BRCD sold off to the bottom of the channel and held it almost exactly.  The channel came in at 5.633.  The low that day was 5.64. 

3. After that, another rally to the 50DMA, a selloff to 5.80 (#3 in blue), then two more attempts to take out 6.29.  The June 2 high was 6.30.  The June 5 high was 6.29.

At that point, we had a "possible" Bullish Ascending Triangle.  The dotted red line is the Ascending line.

That "possibility" was negated when BRCD closed below the ascending line (dotted red line) on June 7, however, it's "possible" that we have to "move the marker" (#3 with a question mark) to Thursday's low of 5.76 for the Ascending line.

4. Support for the Bulls:

a. 5.80 - That's the "new" ascending line (rising blue line) after we "moved the marker."

b. 5.64 - is DOUBLE support.  That was the successful re-test of the bottom of the channel on May 22, and that's where the trendline (purple) off the November, 2005 low will come in next week (looks like next Wednesday).

c. 5.42 - is DOUBLE support.  That's the May 15 and May 17 lows, and that's also where the bottom of the channel (green) comes in early this week.

Summary:

As maxi pointed out, BRCD moved into the 5.80s and closed near its low for the day on Friday.  It also failed on Friday almost exactly at the original ascending line (dotted red).  That trendline came in on Friday at 6.066.  Friday's high was 6.06. 

That's a score for the bears since the bulls failed that re-test.

Although MACD basis the daily chart has turned down from the zero line and crossed slightly below its signal line on Friday, which also favors the bears, watch out for it turning right back up like MOVI did, right before its pattern breakout on earnings.  Especially with three levels of support below here. 

You don't want to see 6.29-6.30 get taken out to the upside, which would suggest an upside channel breakout.  The top of the channel comes in at 6.293 on Wednesday June 21.

Good luck, guys!

nice work melf,
it hit 566 this morning bounced back to 570 . let's see if it can break that 564 line,

although i can't see why any one would rush out and buy this in this market?
let's see.
max

Quote from: Terliso on June 10, 2006, 01:50:53 AM
A break from $5.73 trendline (it looks like heading that way ;)) will put us in a very nice short position ;)

I'm beginning to smile  :)

reading the post in the yahoo boards sounds like the longs are starting to get fed up with the performance of BRCD... we might see 5 soon it looks like. BRCD doesnt really have the attractiveness of a buy espically in a market like this.

just broke support at 568 on volume.
now at 561 :D
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on June 12, 2006, 02:08:41 PM
just broke support at 568 on volume.
now at 561 :D
maxi

maxi,

DOUBLE support at 5.64 is broken.

Basis the weekly chart, the Kijun-Sen is at 5.58.  That acts like a price-related 22-week moving average.  If 5.58 doesn't hold, and if next DOUBLE support at 5.42 doesn't hold, that suggests a move down to the Kumo (Cloud), the top of which begins at 4.68.

Applauds to you, Alister, nullzero and echo on your nice shorts of BRCD.  Nice going, guys, and good luck.

I put a limit sell short order on TRA last night @ 6.91 but it opened @ 6.88 high of the day so far :(

Well,  BRCD is looking good now  ;)

hi,
a lot of selling the last few days, all sells at the bid but doesn't seem to push the price down hard.
hhmmm,
sittin' and waitin'
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on June 14, 2006, 03:27:35 PM
hi,
a lot of selling the last few days, all sells at the bid but doesn't seem to push the price down hard.
hhmmm,
sittin' and waitin'
maxi

Nothing to worry on BRCD, if you want piece of mind.... check the Three Line Break instead of Candlesticks .... Patience, Patience, Patience.... as long as no big news we're ok ;)

Quote from: rickjust on June 14, 2006, 03:27:35 PM
hi,
a lot of selling the last few days, all sells at the bid but doesn't seem to push the price down hard.
hhmmm,
sittin' and waitin'
maxi

maxi,

This has been a real Bull vs. Bear struggle in BRCD, hasn't it? 

Against a market backdrop that has entirely favored the bears until yesterday (the NAZ was down eight days in a row), the BRCD Bulls haven't given up the ghost just yet.

Tuesday, June 12, it looked like "stick a fork in BRCD."  The Bears had FOUR scores:

1. The Bears took out the Ascending line at 5.80 (blue up trendline). SCORE

2. The Bears took out the prior low of that pattern, at 5.76 (blue #3) SCORE

3. The Bears took out 5.64, which was validated support at the bottom of the channel (green #4) SCORE

4. The Bears took out the up trendline (purple) off the November, 2005 low.  SCORE

Ugly day for the BRCD Bulls. 

All that was left for the Bulls was DOUBLE support, at 5.42, which was the May 17 low, and which also was the bottom of the channel (green).  The high on the day was 5.87, and after FOUR Bear scores, 5.87 "should be" gone.

It isn't.

Wednesday, June 13, the Bulls brought it back and closed it at broken DOUBLE support, at 5.64.  That also looked like the Bulls should be done.  "Former support 'should be' resistance."

It wasn't.

Thursday, June 14, the Bulls managed a print of 5.88, a penny above the June 12 high of 5.87, the day when the Bears had FOUR scores.

Although the close only was 5.76, (which is the low at blue #3), that's a very poor perfomance on the part of the Bears to allow all 4 of those Wednesday scores to get taken out on a print basis.

The general market has been trashed, and BRCD still is 6% above DOUBLE support at 5.42.  I'd be cautious being short this stock, particularly if it sells off again to 5.64, which was DOUBLE support, and if it holds there this time.

That's what BRCD did after it broke the channel (green) on May 15.  It rallied (like yesterday's rally to 5.88), then it held at the bottom of the channel (green #4) on May 22.

That's also what BRCD has done so far with broken DOUBLE support at 5.64.  Yesterday, BRCD opened smack on that trendline, and held it all day.  The open was 5.65.  The low was 5.63..

The Bears obviously need to take out 5.64 again.  Then 5.42.  Then the bottom of the channel (green), which looks to be at about 5.37 for today, June 14.

Good luck, guys! 





 

hi,
thanks melf, and terlisa. got out yesterday at 570. didn't like the action yesterday. too bullish short term. all that selling with very little price movement. may look for another entry down the track. if not then there is always another one on the horizon. i only trade one or two stocks at a time so a can focus my energy. i don't like to diversify too much . i tried that and it just wasn't my style.
but i have to protect capital and profit, so i like to lock in profits. i may not get rich but i get to keep playing! ( or i might get rich) :P

;D
glta still holding.
maxi

got stopped out of two of my shorts today ;(

Quote from: rickjust on June 15, 2006, 08:56:11 AM
hi,
thanks melf, and terlisa. got out yesterday at 570. didn't like the action yesterday. too bullish short term. all that selling with very little price movement.
maxi

maxi,

Nice going.  Applaud.  

The Bears didn't follow through to the downside on those 4 Scores, and  this morning, the Bulls again have taken out the Bears' "Four Score High" of 5.87 from Wednesday.  

You've got a gain and you always can re-short it, or play something else, as you say.  

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 15, 2006, 10:03:34 AM
The Bears didn't follow through to the downside on those 4 Scores, and  this morning, the Bulls again have taken out the Bears' "Four Score High" of 5.87 from Wednesday.  

The Bulls are capitalizing on the Bears allowing them back in above 5.64, and above the "Four Score High" of 5.87.  BRCD has rallied all the way back to last Friday's high of 6.06.

I'm not covering yet.... I'm willing to take a loss if it hits 6.45
Shorted @ 5.92
Stop loss @ 6.45
Loss percentage = - 8.95%

didnt cover either

hi,
good luck with this one guys. i am going to keep an eye on it to see if it breaks that 629 area. if not i may short again.
it is surfing the channel at the moment,
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on June 16, 2006, 09:02:12 AM
hi,
good luck with this one guys. i am going to keep an eye on it to see if it breaks that 629 area. if not i may short again.
it is surfing the channel at the moment,
maxi

maxi,

Good idea.  If BRCD can get above 6.29-6,35 (the top of the green channel), that would be a DOUBLE breakout to the upside.  The slope of the channel is -0.01522, so subract that amount each day from today's 6.354 to find the breakout points for next week.

EDIT: Slope is -0.01522, not -0.1522

hi,
joining the party again. short 606
maxi

I believe there is not much upside potential here...
Though the 200sma is supporting the price on the weekly scale but the slope is still turning down, & The trendline is already broke if it's viewed in CandleVolume ;)

This stock is still BEARISH... no doubt about that ;)
Stop Loss @ 6.45 ;)

Quote from: rickjust on June 16, 2006, 10:59:55 AM
hi,
joining the party again. short 606

maxi,

You've got some house money to play with from your 5.70 cover of your initial short, so you're in a nice postion here.

Apologies for giving you the wrong data point for the slope of the top of the channel.  Metastock often gives me inaccurate reads when I point my cursor at a trendline, and I didn't calculate it manually until now.

The top of the channel comes in today, June 19, at 6.324.  The slope is 0.0152, so here are the data points along the top of the channel for early this week:

June 19:  6.324
June 20:  6.309
June 21: 6.294

Since the Top of the Ascending Triangle (horizontal blue line) is 6.29-6.30, a print of 6.31 on Tuesday or beyond would be a DOUBLE upside breakout.

Suggestion: I'd cover 6.31 (for today, I'd cover 6.33 since the channel is at 6.324).

Good luck to you, Alister, and to anyone else in the stock.

hi,
thanks melf.
i have my doubts about brcd and i think i may have been a lttle hasty going short at the point that i did. ( could have made a better entry,this one could be my nemisis, like your bcon) i noticed the last few days that most of the volume was on the sell side i.e. selling off at the bid but the price didn't make a drop .
on the contrary it would often rise a penny or two. looks similar today. i wonder aloud about that.
thanks for your analysis.  often accurate and always apreciated .
maxi

hi,
as suspected. too much buying pressure pushed brcd above the 50ma at 612 after the thrid atempt today. might have to cover on the next pullback.
maxi >:(

hi,
brcd now finding upside support at the 50ma at 612.
bulls are winning this one. lots of buying at the ask today in this one.
going to work soon so i might have to bite the bullet and cover. like i said earlier my entry was faulty.
maxi

I'm still holding... As you can see 50dma slope is turning down I think price will follow soon.

Stop 6.45 ;)

Quote from: rickjust on June 19, 2006, 02:19:19 PM
hi,
brcd now finding upside support at the 50ma at 612.
bulls are winning this one. lots of buying at the ask today in this one.

maxi,

I agree.  Bulls are ahead since the Bears let them back in above 5.87.  BRCD Bulls had a good day today in another tough day in the market.
 

Quote
like i said earlier my entry was faulty.

You're playing it very well, maxi, covering at 5.70, and re-entering short on house money at 6.06.  Nothing wrong with that.  Good play.

Quote from: Terliso on June 19, 2006, 03:11:26 PM
I'm still holding... As you can see 50dma slope is turning down I think price will follow soon.

Stop 6.45 ;)

Alister,

Beginning tomorrow, 6.31 is a DOUBLE upside breakout.  Could be a false breakout if it happens, of course, but just so you're aware. 

Good luck!  I hope it tanks for you guys, but I have to agree with maxi.  The bulls are winning above 5.87.

Bought BRCD at 6.20 on the re-test of the technical breakout above the recent 6.03-6.20 Rectangle, a Bullish consolidation/continuation pattern off the 12½% rally off the recent 5.51 low.  Stop: 6.02, a print of a penny below the Rectangle.  Risk: a loss of 2.9%.

The BRCD Bulls have been in charge since the Bears squandered their opportunity, and allowed the Bulls back in above 5.87, the "Four Score High" of June 12.

The Rectangle breakout puts Target: 6.37 IN PLAY, as long as BRCD trades above 6.20.

A print of 6.31 would a DOUBLE breakout above the channel and above the Ascending Triangle, which would put the April high of 7.10 IN PLAY.

All of that looks well worth the risk of 2.9% on a stop out.

Here's a review of the Bullish Case, if anyone is interested.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 10, 2006, 10:35:35 AM
The Bullish Case:

1. The trend since late in 2005 is bullish. 

Since the April 7 high, the stock has been trading in a Bull Flag/Bull Channel.  It's long in the tooth to be a Bull Flag basis the daily chart, but it looks more like a Bull Flag basis the weekly chart.

2. The slope connecting the highs is -0.1522, so I created that exact same slope for the bottom of the channel.

The bottom of the channel was broken on May 15, where I noted that the 3-Day pattern looks like a Bullish Morning Star.  That break, however, held above trendline off the November, 2005 low (purple trendline), as Alister pointed out.

To determine whether or not the bottom of the channel (green) is meaningful, we want to see if it holds after the May 19 rally to 6.29 (#2 circled in blue).

The next day, May 20, BRCD sold off to the bottom of the channel and held it almost exactly.  The channel came in at 5.633.  The low that day was 5.64. 

3. After that, another rally to the 50DMA, a selloff to 5.80 (#3 in blue), then two more attempts to take out 6.29.  The June 2 high was 6.30.  The June 5 high was 6.29.

At that point, we had a "possible" Bullish Ascending Triangle.  The dotted red line is the Ascending line.

That "possibility" was negated when BRCD closed below the ascending line (dotted red line) on June 7, however, it's "possible" that we have to "move the marker" (#3 with a question mark) to Thursday's low of 5.76 for the Ascending line.

4. Support for the Bulls:

a. 5.80 - That's the "new" ascending line (rising blue line) after we "moved the marker."

b. 5.64 - is DOUBLE support.  That was the successful re-test of the bottom of the channel on May 22, and that's where the trendline (purple) off the November, 2005 low will come in next week (looks like next Wednesday).

c. 5.42 - is DOUBLE support.  That's the May 15 and May 17 lows, and that's also where the bottom of the channel (green) comes in early this week.

hi,
good luck melf,
i got out of this at 615 so i lost on that one. as i said there was too much selling without price movement . didn't look right to me. still it is trading in the channel.
got in xing long instead . oops! at 1129. i saw the moment it turned from there and i did'nt get out and go short. i don't hold out much hope for this one ???
glta
\maxi

Quote from: rickjust on June 22, 2006, 09:15:59 AM
hi,
good luck melf,
i got out of this at 615 so i lost on that one. as i said there was too much selling without price movement . didn't look right to me. still it is trading in the channel.

Thanks, maxi.  Sorry you lost on that one, but you did well, overall.

The Barbarians are at the gate for a DOUBLE breakout at 6.31.  Just hope that the Bulls don't wimp out on me, and take out the 6.03 low of the Rectangle.  If they do, there's a chance that they will re-test 5.87, hold, then breakout, but I'm not going to stay below 6.03.

Good luck on XING!

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 22, 2006, 09:29:02 AM

The Barbarians are at the gate for a DOUBLE breakout at 6.31. 

There's the DOUBLE breakout at 6.31.  This one is the Bulls' to lose.  We need to sustain the breakout and have some volume come in on short-covering and new buying.

lookin'good so far melf!  ;D
sorry terlisa but you have your stop in place. >:(
someone wins someone looses.
glta
maxi

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 21, 2006, 01:04:49 PM
The Rectangle breakout puts Target: 6.37 IN PLAY, as long as BRCD trades above 6.20.

The Rectangle Target: 6.37 MADE ten minutes into trading.

Quote from: rickjust on June 22, 2006, 09:50:08 AM
lookin'good so far melf!  ;D

maxi,

Yeah, The Bulls took it to the 6.37 Rectangle Target immediately, and a little beyond to 6.40, then  former resistance at 6.30 held on a re-test, and was support.  Very nice price action, so far.

Looks good, but we're a long-g way from the close.  ;)

got stopped out ;(.

Didn´t saw much strenght in the breakout so....my setup is trading the range.

Short @ 6.35. Stop loss if BRCD close above 6.40 at close.

almost took my stop @ 6.45 ;)

BRCD hit the upper trendline this should be good opportunity to short it...
the volume is still low, BULL needs more volume to break those overhead resistance ;)

stop 6.45 ;)

Let's find out!! ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 21, 2006, 01:04:49 PM
Bought BRCD at 6.20 on the re-test of the technical breakout above the recent 6.03-6.20 Rectangle

Sold BRCD at 6.21.  Gain: nil.

Granted, the market is down pretty hard, and BRCD is holding near the top of the Rectangle at 6.20, but it's a failed DOUBLE breakout at this point, volume is lousy, and if BRCD closes here, the daily candlestick is going to look like a Bearish Gravestone Doji Star. 

YICK.  :P

Basis the 10-minute chart, it also looks like a H&S Top.

YICK  >:D

The Bulls get credit for the 6.37 Rectangle target that MADE in the early going, but they wimped after that.  I'm out.

Short with me Melf-elf  ;) :D

Quote from: Terliso on June 23, 2006, 12:11:48 AM
Short with me Melf-elf  ;) :D

Alister,

Get Thee behind me, you devil.   ;D  >:D

The Bears clearly won the day, recovering the fumble at the 6.40 yard line, and running it back through the 6.31 breakout all the way back to the top of the Rectangle, at 6.20, on what looks like a Bearish Gravestone Doji Star (could be a Bearish Long-Legged Doji Star). 

Which ever it is, it was a nice performance, and the Bears go on offense this morning, 1st and 10 at the 6.21.

;D

I can't justify joining the Bears, though:

1. The Bulls scored a 16% gain from the 5.51 to the point of the fumble, at 6.40.  That was a great perfomance given the conditions at NASDAQ Field, which have overwhelmingly favored the Bears since mid-May.

2. It looks like the Bulls got a bit ahead of themselves, chewing up that much ground with the Tenkan-Sen (green line - 8 Day) and the Kijun-Sen (red line - 22 Day) Bearishly inverted back in the 5.90s, and with the Kumo (Cloud) reistance overhead, at 6.26.

"Too much, too soon."

3. The faster Tenkan-Sen (green...8-Day) now has pulled up dead even with the slower Kijun-Sen )red...22-Day) at 5.955, and the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) currently is at 5.97, right near there.  On a selloff, all 3 of those could be possible support, in addition to these other areas of possible support:

1. 6.20 - The Top of the Bullish Rectangle (Breakout Target: 6.37 was MADE, confirming that it was, in fact, bullish).

The Bears go on offense this morning right there.

2. 6.08 - The 50DMA

3. 6.03 - The bottom of the Bullish Rectangle

4. 5.97 - The bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)

5. 5.955 - The Tenkan-Sen

6. 5.955 - The Kijun-Sen

7. 5.87 -  The "Four Score High" for the Bears on June 12, where they lost control of the game when the Bulls took it out on June 14.

8. 5.74 - The up trendline off the November, 2005 low (dotted purple line).  The Bears broke that support on June 12, when they had four scores against the Bulls.  The Bulls opened their June 14 reversal day smack on the trendline and never looked back, re-establishing it as support.

9. 5.54 - Ascending line (blue) of the Ascending Triangle

10. 5.51 - The June 13 low

11. 5.42 - The May 17 low

More support below that, but at these last few levels, it's become a good short from here!

:D  >:D

But, you see my point.  There's a lot of possible support below this 6.21 close.  I'd rather short when a stock is re-testing broken support (resistance) without much support below.

Now that I'm out of my long position, I hope that The Bears tank it for you since it won't be my money that you win!

>:D  >:D  >:D

Good luck, buddy, and good luck to everyone.

BTW, Applause to nullzero and maxi (rickjust) for showing up on the trade, and posting their stop outs.  It's refreshing to see that 3SOF, rather than the usual "Oh, I stopped it out two days ago for a gain" that we see on internet boards.  I admire that.  We all know that the market isn't so easy that we always have winners.

;)

I appreciate the honesty, which helps us to learn from both our gains and our losses.  Thanks, guys.

   

hi,
thanks melf for your applause. but i wish it was for a win rather than for a stop out.
anyway brcd looks bullish to me and maybe has a chance to breakout of that 630 zone if the market wills it. to borrow your football analogy, for now i think the bulls are going into the last quarter confidant of a win , ( but we all know what can happen after the 2 minute warning.)
watching from the sidelines,
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on June 25, 2006, 06:42:44 PM
anyway brcd looks bullish to me and maybe has a chance to breakout of that 630 zone if the market wills it.

maxi,

The Bears couldn't do anything on Friday.  They took BRCD down early to 6.14, but the Bulls took it back above 6.20, and kept returning it above 6.20 on the successive attempts on the part of the Bears to knock out 6.20. 

Quote
to borrow your football analogy, for now i think the bulls are going into the last quarter confidant of a win , ( but we all know what can happen after the 2 minute warning.)
watching from the sidelines,

Right. It ain't over 'til it's over.  Oh, wait, that's baseball (Yogi), isn't it?  :D

Quote

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 26, 2006, 09:56:53 AM
Right. It ain't over 'til it's over.  Oh, wait, that's baseball (Yogi), isn't it?  :D

Now the Bulls wimped. 

They didn't take out 6.40 (yesterday's high was 6.38).  They didn't close it yesterday above the DOUBLE breakout at 6.30.  The close was 6.30.  Volume has been poor.  Today, Friday's low of 6.14 has been taken out to the downside, putting in a short-term Double Top (6.40-6.38).

5.90 is IN PLAY as long as BRCD trades below 6.14.

right on BRCD!!! ;) :D

Quote from: LuxAA on June 22, 2006, 12:36:13 PM
Didn´t saw much strenght in the breakout so....my setup is trading the range.

Short @ 6.35. Stop loss if BRCD close above 6.40 at close.

You did a good job, LuxAA (applaud) ;)

I'm break even... actually I can cover now here... but not yet... ;) :D

BRCD ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 27, 2006, 10:16:44 AM
5.90 is IN PLAY as long as BRCD trades below 6.14.

The Double Top target: 5.90 MADE.

Thanks Terliso!  ;)

BRCD crash yesterday. Let´s see today!  8)

Good luck!

Quote from: Terliso on June 23, 2006, 12:11:48 AM
Short with me Melf-elf  ;) :D

Good job Melf !!  you got out early in ur LONG position ;)

Quote from: LuxAA on June 28, 2006, 09:29:47 AM
Thanks Terliso!  ;)
BRCD crash yesterday. Let´s see today!  8)
Good luck!

Good luck to us!! ;) :D


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

200sma is supporting the price (weekly chart) but the slope is pointing downward....BRCD may be bullish on the daily chart but the weekly is bearish ;) :D

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 23, 2006, 06:58:12 AM
8. 5.74 - The up trendline off the November, 2005 low (dotted purple line).

Rally off the November, 2005 up trendline 5.72, back to 6.00 again.  Nobody gettin' nowhere.  ;)

It's back to 6.20...the stock that wouldn't die...

hi,
that's why i had to get out and stay out.  i couldn't stand watching it's machinations. no fun when you have shares.  :D
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on June 29, 2006, 03:58:06 PM
hi,
that's why i had to get out and stay out.  i couldn't stand watching it's machinations. no fun when you have shares.  :D
maxi

That's how I felt, maxi.  I favor the Bulls, but both Bulls and Bears keep blowing opportunites.

Covered @ 5.92
Loss = $20.00

I'm sitting on a dead money :(

I'm Shorting back BRCD monday morning ;)

wish me luck!!  :D

Shorting BRCD??  It just hit the 50DMA as i write at 6.07, resistance at 6.10..  short entry here I believe...   only on paper so far  Macd and RSI are still pointing up on daily and weekly charts, perhaps a chance to enter short in the 6.20's again...  but if it holds above the 50dma it could turn bullish again.  still has that strong resistance at 6.43
Melf, Terliso thoughts??

Quote from: joet on July 25, 2006, 10:13:42 AM
Melf, Terliso thoughts??

Joe,

It's not doing much of anything.  The bottom of the channel (blue) was penetrated, but it held on a closing basis, and BRCD rallied from there at Monday's open, to 6.10 today, as you mentioned.  That's near the top of the Kumo (Cloud), which I'll show you next.

The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 6.085.  BRCD rallied to 6.10 today and got stopped there.  It's now at 5.90. 

The 8 (green) and 22-day (red) are inverted.  It still can rally and get those in gear, but it's range-bound, as it has been for awhile.

Howdie folks

Snowy there are still quality folks here!!

Melf, thanx for your input, i am assuming that you are continuing to watch BRCD and may take a position when it breaks out of its current range?  Terliso did you go short yesterday? 

Melf, from your charts it looks like the range is trending down, but you also show the convergence of a penant/flag possibly forming.  It seems to me that the 50dma has been resistance in July and could provide a nice short entry if it tests it again in the next 2 sessions.  I realize that this does not meet your criteria of "breaking the range or trend" but do you ever trade the range, seems like a short with a 20-30 cent target would be a decent trade these days?  In your experience is it safer to wait and look for larger potential when trends are broken?

I am still short on AAPL at 60, wish that i had not covered my NTRI short before earnings, but no chart would have told me that the CEO was going to resign today!!

Any good short picks out there for you?
Terliso i am still watching XSMR, nice pick, i never sold any, just on paper.
Good evening to all
cheers joe

Quote from: joet on July 25, 2006, 05:36:34 PM
I realize that this does not meet your criteria of "breaking the range or trend" but do you ever trade the range, seems like a short with a 20-30 cent target would be a decent trade these days?  In your experience is it safer to wait and look for larger potential when trends are broken?

Joe,

Not necessarily. 

I traded the Rectangle breakout in June (little pattern in purple) on a print of 6.21.  The breakout put a target of 6.37 IN PLAY, which MADE on the rally to the high of 6.40, and there also was a DOUBLE breakout on that two-day rally, of both the channel (in green), and of what a the time, was an Ascending Triangle (the pattern in blue).

So, it was a TRIPLE upside breakout, and the trade looked very good as BRCD rallied to 6.40 on June 22.   Nope.  Immediate fizzle (false breakout), on a Bearish Inverted Hangman, and I got out of the trade for a paltry gain of a penny a share.

No "sure thing" in trading, is there?  Sometimes range trading works.  Sometimes breakouts work. 

BRCD closed yesterday at the top of the channel (pattern in green), but I don't view that as anything particularly meaningful.  There have been a lot of intraday penetrations of the top of the channel.  The stock also is about smack in the middle of the blue channel.

Neutral, at this point.

The 8-day Tenkan-sen is at 5.805.  Yesterday's low was 5.81. 

The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 6.805.  Yesterday's high was 6.08.

BRCD looks like it doesn't want to give up the ghost, and looks "stuck in the range."

The 8-day Tenksen-sen and 22-day Kijun-sen still are bearishly postioned (inverted), but BRCD closed above the green channel (on yesterday's chart), closed above its 50DMA, and the weekly MACD histogram is ticking higher this week, so far.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 25, 2006, 02:57:29 PM
The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 6.085.  BRCD rallied to 6.10 today and got stopped there.  It's now at 5.90. 

The 8 (green) and 22-day (red) are inverted.  It still can rally and get those in gear, but it's range-bound, as it has been for awhile.

Joe,

I wanted to buy BRCD right there, but I was stymied by the channels that I had in place.

Last night, I realized that if I got rid of the channels, connected the January high of 7.10 to the April high of 6.40, NOT the May high of 6.75 as I had done, there were SEVEN hits to that trendline, prior to the break print of 6.11, a penny above that 6.10 July 25 high, which was right at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), ready to head higher.

SEVEN hits to a trendline is usual.  It's clearly resistance, so a breakout above it should be meaningful.  It was.  BRCD is back to the June high of 6.40, and took it out this morning (the high was 6.45), busting some stops.

Notice also that all of the candles after the breakout are above the 50DMA (dotted green line).  Weekly MACD histogram also ticked higher last week when BRCD banged off the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle. 

Nice little 5% gain, buying the 6.11 breakout, but I didn't see it until it was too late.

Where's that Crying Face on the toolbar?  Oh, there-e it is... > >  :'(  :'(  :'(

Howdie Melf,
if you are still bullish on BRCD you may get another chance to enter at 6.1  if i had plyed my short this AM at 6.4 i would be covering now for a short term 3%.  6.40-6.50 is proving to be some strong resistance for BRCD so when that breaks i may go long, or if we re-test support around 5.60-5.70..

Do you still see the channel trend here?  Cheers Joe

I shorted BRCD a couple days ago at 6.14 I believe chances are high of a break of 6.00 again. My plan is to cover at 5.80-6.01

Joe,

There hasn't been strong conviction from Bulls or Bears.  Both have blown opportunities. 

I mainly wanted to point out the Symmetrical Triangle breakout, which would have helped me to play the 5% short-term rally. 

If I had seen the breakout at 6.11 and played it, I would have sold ½ into 9.40 resistance with a stop below 9.00 on the remainder.  9.00 was the July 28 low after the breakout, and it was a penny above the 50 DMA. 

Yes, the up trendling channel still could be a factor.   

By the way, earnings are coming up in the next two weeks.  Don't know the date.  Last year was August 18.

BRCD is down 15%

Covered at 5.16-5.17  ;D.

Wow dropped all the way to 5.00

---- Bad drop for BRCD breaking all mid-term support ;)
---- Next stop @ support around $4.50
---- There is also a gap below $4
---- BRCD price is now around 50sma weekly scale, a break of that moving average indicates the price could go lower...time will tell.

Second chart from June 12, 2006 post

Good trade nullzero (applause) ;)
See, A little bit of patience always pays off ;) :D ;D

I got out little early but I didnt want to risk a bounce afer the FED meeting.

The Stock That Wouldn't Die....It's Baaa-aack...  :D

I'm real tempted to short it here at 5.86, at the top of the January channel, and also the 50DMA, but I'll think it over.  Possible rally tomorrow to the gap.  Volume is 2X average 100 day.

I will keep my eye on BRCD as well. Looks like a tasty short in the low 6.00s. I doubt BRCD has enough steam to make its way past 6.50.

Quote from: nullzero on August 24, 2006, 12:53:56 AM
I will keep my eye on BRCD as well. Looks like a tasty short in the low 6.00s.

nullz,

That's what I'm thinking.  The low of the white candle, prior to the gap down, was 6.05, so a print of 6.04, some might consider that gap to be filled.  The low and the close of the candle the day before the gap down were 6.10 and 6.14, respectively.


So, maybe somewhere in that 6.04-6.14 area.  ???

Quote
I doubt BRCD has enough steam to make its way past 6.50.

Right.  The recent highs were 6.40 and 6.45.  I wouldn't think so either, but I also don't want to get caught in a parabolic short squeeze, ala ZMH and AAPL.

In the Battle of the Dueling Channels (red and blue)...

:D  >:D

... BRCD closed above the bottom rail of the red one, above the top of the blue one, and also above the 50 DMA (by a penny).  Volume was good on the rally yesterday.  Probably a lot of it on short covering.   The strong close looks like it might have some more upside in it, which is why I didn't want to short 5.86.

We'll watch it.

I have to check to see if they've reported earnings yet.  Last report was May 18 or 19, so they are due in this time-frame.  I don't want to do anything ahead of earnings if they haven't reported.

BRCD reported Aug. 17th.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Brocade Communications Systems Inc. after Thursday's closing bell reported third-quarter net earnings of $24.5 million, or 9 cents a share, boosted by a higher gross margin and strong sales. In the same period last year, the San Jose-Calif.-based company posted a net loss of $7.24 million, or 3 cents a share. Excluding stock-based compensation, among other items, Brocade reported per-share earnings of 11 cents vs. 1 cent last year. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected per-share earnings of 9 cents. Quarterly revenue rose 55% to $188.9 million from $122.3 million. Analysts had forecast revenue of $185 million. End of Story

Quote from: nutsterrt on August 24, 2006, 09:42:20 AM
BRCD reported Aug. 17th.

Thanks for that information, nutsterrt.  Appreciate the help. Applause.

No problem. I look forward to hearing your next move  :D

Quote from: nutsterrt on August 24, 2006, 10:40:29 AM
No problem. I look forward to hearing your next move  :D

nutsterrt,

I hope that they're going to get rid of that bad tick of 6.06 at 1:22PM.  That's going to look like a gap fill, but it wasn't.

1:22PM Open 5.94...High 6.06...Low  5.94...Close 5.94.  Huh?  ???

The high on the day, so far, should be 5.96.

BRCD short is looking good at these levels. Im watching it closely 6.20-6.40 range looks like a nice entry for a short. If the NAZ has some downside a short at those levels can become nice +5%-10% profit.

 :o getting ripe for another short!!  Seven days up in a row!  Filled the Gap, WHY?

But wait... read news.. merger hapening with MCDT?  thoughts on how this will effect BRCD?

If it hits the 6.40's with out a down day I will try to short for a quick trade, covering if it breaks through 6.45 resistance and out of Channel to close above 6.55

Cheers Joe

Today looks like a tasty short im almost ready to pull the trigger.

joe and nullz,

Having just been squeezed on LRCX, I'll give my ribs a rest and pass on this one.  :D

FWIW, I have the top of the channel at 6.6244 for today.  Good luck.

Thanx Melf
I will keep watching, BRCD sure looks strong, there must be new comming and i do hope to catch a short when it sells that news. ::)

Cheers Joe
PS take a look at KFX top of channel may break up and try 18 to new highs again

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 30, 2006, 01:57:25 PM
joe and nullz,

Having just been squeezed on LRCX, I'll give my ribs a rest and pass on this one.  :D

I would have been squeezed again on this one.  :P

Quote from: joet on August 31, 2006, 02:48:48 AM
Thanx Melf
I will keep watching, BRCD sure looks strong, there must be new comming and i do hope to catch a short when it sells that news. ::)

Joe,

Yes, it sure did look strong, rallying parabolically almost all the way back to 6.45 (it got to 6.44), selling off and holding above its 50DMA, then continuing to rally.

Seldom is a stock that gaps down like BRCD did on August 8 a "buy," but it was.  The fundamentals (news) had trumped the good technicals.  The 50DMA was above the 200DMA, and BRCD was trading above them.  The pattern, before the gap down, looked like it was a consolidation of the 112% gain off the November low, and it looked to me like The Bulls were favored.

Not so, on the gap down, but BRCD has come back, and has taken out both channels.  Very unusual to see a stock do this after a big gap down, especially to see it recover this quickly.

Sure glad thaat i only paper traded this one, sell at 6.45 would have covered at 6.55 w/ a loss

but what is driving it, it sure looks strong, Any still see a reason to short it here besides the RSI being so high.  Something big must be brewing so I will stay on hte sidelines.

Anyone notice the KFX crash?  I had gone long at the bottom of the channel around 13.50 and was happy for 2 days as it went over 14 only to go to 11 in less than an hour on huge volume, I ate my loss quickly aroung 12 figuring that kind of volume must mean some big players wanted out and they must have a reason unknown to us retailes yet...  Will see where KFX goes.

Man...I watched this one and watched this one.  Never bought...but it may have more. 

Gap up on earnings report from yesterday and it finished at the high of the day and high of at least the past 5 years. :o

gonna have to change the title of this one from "shorting" to "longing" ::)

In BRCD: 9.25

new 52 week high already.

Out 9.44 (9:57am) when the minute chart opened and closed below the 8ma at 9:56am
May reenter later on.
Previous hour's high: 9.48
Previous hour's low: 9.03(including premarket info)

In again at 9.25
I may be wrong this time but that block on the green at $9.36 must want to make some money.

Looked like a false break out on the minute chart.
Out at: 9.27

One more try for bottom fishing.
In at 9.15
previous hour's high:9.27
previous hour's low:9.12

It looked like a tank on the minute chart.
The only problem is the last candle was not accompanied by very large selling volume.

Out at 9.24 because it didn't have enough push the second time around.
That's it for me for the day.
Good luck to everyone.

"BRCD" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.   ;D                               
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.    ;)                           
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.   :'(         
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$    ;)       

Inserting a copy from the personal log thread.

Yesterday's Lesson:

In BRCD:9.25
Out BRCD:9.44
Profit:0.19
This was an ok trade


In BRCD:9.25
Out BRCD:9.27
Profit:0.02
I had to do some head scratching here.
I must have missed something with this trade.
I saw at least 300,000 shares on the green at $9.36 go by at the time and sales.
The price went down. I was thinking that probably the market maker that took the order(shorted 300,000 shares in order to service the client who bought 300,000 at $9.36 which was reflected as green on the time and sales) was taking the price down to be able to buy to cover and make a profit.
After I got in,
1) I noticed that the previous candle(the candle where I used the high as an indicator to get in) of the 1 minute chart was outside the B- but the volume was lower than the candle prior to that.
2) the recovery rally didn't touch or exceed the BB
I initiated an exit and was able to get out at 9.27
I'm not sure how that big buyer felt but I had to cut my loss when my indicators tell me to.
I must have missed the counter trades against that block that was at least 300,000 at $9.36


In BRCD:9.15
Out BRCD:9.24
Tried to Bottom fish this long term uptrending stock.
From a high of 9.27(outside the B+ on the 1 minute chart) to a low 0f 9.13(outside the B- of the 1 minute chart).
When I saw that the angle of attack was steep, I waited for a higher high and placed a bid on the previous high.
The candle pierced B- on low volume and ended the move with  larger volume.
I was concerned after I got in because the ending volume was not large enough( I want to see a panic selling volume).
The recovery rally also didn't touch or exceed the BB.
I was watching 9.14 to be the price low(low inside the Bollinger Band with lower volume compared to the momentum low)
9.27 was my perceived resistance.
The price climbed towards it but  kept on stalling.
I thought that 9.24 was pretty close to it already and if I get out here it will be on a +.
I really wanted for the price to pass 9.24 but when the bid and ask locked after the dip, I got out.

While having my haircut (which was supposed to have been done the previous day) I heard on the news that the market was having a sell off.
This is the main reason I don't like holding overnight anymore.

I wanted to get home right away to follow up on BRCD.
I was thinking that if the bulls panic and the price ends up hitting a strong support, a potential short squeeze would be there.

Looking at the hourly chart of BRCD right now(5:14am on February 28,2007)
It had a nice bounce at the 50ma.

I'm still bugged with that block trade.
Now I'm thinking, if a pension fund or another large institution wants to get in a stock, most likely they can't or will not buy all their quota all in one day otherwise the stock price will be driven way up right away.

BRCD just made a higher high (previous hour's high is 9.12)  on the hourly chart at premarket(5:23am)

Yesterday's close was at 9.13 on large volume with a spinning top.
If this opens above 9.13, this would be the first indicator of a continuation.

Looking at the daily chart, it looks like there was a selling volume capitulation on August 8, 2006 with a low of 4.91

Nov. 22, 2006 was a gap up outside the bollinger band.

Yesterday (February 27, 2007) was another gap up outside the bollinger band - this time with increased volume.

When I arrived home from my haircut yesterday, I turned on the computer right away.
Just to see that I missed the momentum low entry.

I determined $8.90(3:03ET) was the momentum low.
My entry would have been 8.93 (the previous high after the minute chart created a new high)

More thoughts regarding BRCD.

BRCD gapped down at the open on friday.
I missed out on the artificial gap down.
Artificial gap downs is where market makers normally take advantage of the automatic stops just below the previous day's low to be able to buy the stock they want at a discount.
It was close to daily support.
It filled the breakout gap.
I'm only willing to play BRCD as a day trade.

For long term holders of BRCD, this is the most recent article I got.

3 Sell Signs
By Rex Moore
March 3, 2007
Most loyal Fool readers know how we feel about selling. If you've found a great company with top-notch management and a strong competitive advantage, the best time to sell is almost never.

But that doesn't mean we hold on blindly. Things change, even with the greatest of companies. That's why we're constantly evaluating our stocks and watching for the danger signs that can torpedo our portfolios.

Today, I'd like to share three rules for selling, as set forth by Fool co-founder Tom Gardner for his Motley Fool Stock Advisor members.

1. Selfish management
Tom calls this the "worst possible development" for any of his companies. If the executive team starts worrying more about lining its own pockets than creating value with the business, it's time to let go. For clues, keep an eye on excessive compensation, active insider selling, declining market share, and aggressive accounting. For me, it comes down to the trust I have in management, and I rarely hold a stock once questions arise. The latest example is the ongoing options-backdating mess involving past management at firms such as Brocade Communications (Nasdaq: BRCD) and Comverse Technology.

(Just to clarify: The U.S. government has filed criminal charges against former executives of Brocade Communications, alleging that they engaged in securities fraud resulting from backdating of options, although the federal prosecutors have not alleged that the executives, who have pleaded not guilty, personally received such backdated options.)

2. Competitive disadvantages
Competitive advantages lead businesses to high returns on capital and equity. They could result from many things -- for instance, the "network effect" advantage enjoyed by eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), which gives it far more buyers and sellers than any other auction site. This powerful force was underestimated by many investors when first Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) and then Amazon.com launched their own auction sites several years ago. Though eBay's stock price suffered over fears that these other big names would erode the company's market share, neither could gain much traction, and eBay ran away with the race.

If your company is facing weak pricing power, a declining customer base, and lower market share, it's likely operating at a competitive disadvantage.

3. An unstable financial model
First, let's think of strong companies with stable models, like Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Valero (NYSE: VLO). They're known for stable or rising margins, tight control over working capital, steadily increasing sales, and loads of cash from operations. Companies that aren't following suit in two or more of these categories are showing us a big red flag.

What about valuation?
Obviously, a stock carrying a sky-high valuation is a candidate for selling. But this is the toughest call of all. If properly valuing a company is so easy, after all, everyone would be rich ... happily buying low and selling high. Even Tom has been burned in this area, having sold companies based on valuation, only to watch one or two of them shoot up in value afterward. So tread carefully here; it takes many accurate valuation-based sell calls to make up for just one missed multibagger.

But the three sell signs I've outlined above aren't too hard to spot. Tom and his brother, David, have employed accurate selling and buying guidelines on their way to outstanding performance in Stock Advisor -- 64% total average returns versus 26% for equal amounts invested in the S&P 500. You can get a look at their two picks for new money now, plus all their past recommendations, free of charge with a 30-day trial. There's no obligation to subscribe, and full access to the Stock Advisor service is just a click away.

This article was originally published April 12, 2006. It has been updated.

Rex Moore is brought to you by the letter "R." He owns shares of eBay. Amazon.com, eBay, and Yahoo! are Stock Advisor recommendations. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

The chart is saying 1 thing and the "news" is saying another thing.
Let's see what the market decides to do on monday.

Brocade Reports Q1 FY2011 Results
Strong Performance in Storage Area Networking and International Ethernet Business

Press Release Source: Brocade On Thursday February 17, 2011, 4:05 pm EST
SAN JOSE, CA--(Marketwire - 02/17/11) - Brocade® (NASDAQ:BRCD - News) today reported financial results for its first fiscal quarter ended January 29, 2011. Brocade recorded quarterly revenues of $546 million, representing an increase of 1.2% year-over-year and resulting in diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.06 on a GAAP basis and $0.12 on a non-GAAP basis.

In the quarter, Brocade saw product revenue growth of nearly 5% sequentially in its storage networking business driven by strong Director product revenues and record Server product revenues. Brocade also saw its international Ethernet product revenue grow 30% sequentially led by its EMEA and Asia Pacific geographies, which helped offset the expected softness in Federal spending. Brocade exceeded its expectations for EPS and operating margin in the quarter.

"We are pleased with the results of Q1 and our ability to execute to our FY2011 Playbook," said Michael Klayko, CEO of Brocade. "The industry's first Ethernet fabric solutions that we began delivering in Q1 have been very well received by customers and the industry. These solutions will help enable our customers to rapidly migrate to virtualized data centers and serve as the building blocks for their cloud-based foundational architecture."

In addition to this press release, Brocade management has posted prepared comments and slides on its Fiscal Q1 results and Fiscal Q2 outlook at www.brcd.com. Brocade will host a live webcast conference call to answer questions from investors and analysts today at 2:30 p.m. Pacific time. Questions may also be submitted in advance to [email protected].

Other Q1 product, customer and partner announcements are available at http://newsroom.brocade.com/

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

This press release contains non-GAAP financial measures. In evaluating Brocade's performance, management uses certain non-GAAP financial measures to supplement consolidated financial statements prepared under GAAP.

Management believes that non-GAAP financial measures used in this press release allow management to gain a better understanding of Brocade's comparative operating performance both from period to period, and to its competitors' operating results. Management also believes these non-GAAP financial measures help indicate Brocade's baseline performance before gains, losses or charges that are considered by management to be outside ongoing operating results. Accordingly, management uses these non-GAAP financial measures for planning and forecasting of future periods and in making decisions regarding operations performance and the allocation of resources. Management believes these non-GAAP financial measures, when read in conjunction with Brocade's GAAP financials, provide useful information to investors by offering:



--  the ability to make more meaningful period-to-period comparisons of    Brocade's ongoing operating results;--  the ability to make more meaningful comparisons of Brocade's operating    performance against industry and competitor companies;--  the ability to better identify trends in Brocade's underlying business    and to perform related trend analysis;--  a better understanding of how management plans and measures Brocade's    underlying business; and--  an easier way to compare Brocade's most recent results of operations    against investor and analyst financial models.

Management excludes certain gains or losses and benefits or costs in determining non-GAAP net income that are the result of infrequent events or arise outside the ordinary course of Brocade's continuing operations. Management believes that it is appropriate to evaluate Brocade's operating performance by excluding those items that are not indicative of ongoing operating results or limit comparability. Such items include: (i) legal fees associated with certain pre-acquisition litigation, (ii) legal fees associated with indemnification obligations and other related costs, net, (iii) acquisition and integration costs, (iv) loss on sale of property, and (v) interest expense related to adoption of new standard relating to convertible debt instruments.

Management also excludes the following non-cash charges in determining non-GAAP net income (i) stock-based compensation expense and (ii) amortization of purchased intangible assets. Because of varying available valuation methodologies, subjective assumptions and the variety of award types, management believes that the exclusion of stock-based compensation allows for more accurate comparisons of our operating results to our peer companies. Management believes that the expense associated with the amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets is appropriate to be excluded because a significant portion of the purchase price for acquisitions may be allocated to intangible assets that have short lives and exclusion of the amortization expense allows comparisons of operating results that are consistent over time for Brocade's newly acquired and long-held businesses.

Finally, management believes that it is appropriate to exclude the tax effects of the items noted above in order to present a more meaningful measure of non-GAAP net income.

Limitations These non-GAAP financial measures have limitations, however, because they do not include all items of income and expense that impact the Company. Management compensates for these limitations by also considering Brocade's GAAP results. The non-GAAP financial measures that Brocade uses are not prepared in accordance with, and should not be considered an alternative to measurements required by GAAP, such as operating income, net income and net income per share, and should not be considered measurements of Brocade's liquidity. The presentation of this additional information is not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. In addition, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similar measurements reported by other companies.

Cautionary Statement

This press release contains statements that are forward-looking in nature, including statements regarding Brocade's FY2011 Playbook and customer adoption of Brocade's Ethernet fabric products and technologies. These statements are based on current expectations on the date of this press release and involve a number of risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to differ significantly from such estimates. The risks include, but are not limited to, Brocade's ability to capitalize on new Brocade sales and marketing initiatives, including expanded go-to-market activities in our Ethernet business, changes in IT spending levels in one or more of our target markets and geographical regions, Brocade's ability to continue to successfully innovate new products and services on a timely basis and achieve widespread market acceptance, and the effect of increasing market competition and changes in the industry. Certain of these and other risks are set forth in more detail in "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in Brocade's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended October 30, 2010. Brocade does not assume any obligation to update or revise any such forward-looking statements, whether as the result of new developments or otherwise.

About Brocade

Brocade® (NASDAQ:BRCD - News) networking solutions help the world's leading organizations transition smoothly to a world where applications and information reside anywhere. (www.brocade.com)

Brocade, the B-wing symbol, BigIron, DCFM, DCX, Fabric OS, FastIron, IronView, NetIron, SAN Health, ServerIron, TurboIron, and Wingspan are registered trademarks, and Brocade Assurance, Brocade NET Health, Brocade One, Extraordinary Networks, MyBrocade, VCS, and VDX are trademarks of Brocade Communications Systems, Inc., in the United States and/or in other countries. Other brands, products, or service names mentioned are or may be trademarks or service marks of their respective owners.

© 2011 Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved.


Contact:
BROCADE CONTACTS
Public Relations
John NohTel: 408-333-5108
[email protected]
Investor Relations
Robert EggersTel: 408-333-8797
[email protected]

On a Tear...
Great report, lots of hype. I see this going much higher !
Patience will be rewarded.


Day's Range: 6.37 - 6.88
52wk Range: 4.64 - 6.99
Volume: 134,935,530
Avg Vol (3m): 15,722,600
Market Cap: 2.98B
P/E (ttm): 25.52
EPS (ttm): 0.25
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
7.78%above 13-day EMA
11.12%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 58 

United States Army Advances Ethernet Infrastructure to Optimize Applications and Deliver Mission-Critical Military Information
Brocade Improves Business Continuity With Non-Stop Networking and Maximum Performance

Press Release Source: Brocade On Wednesday June 1, 2011, 8:00 am EDT
SAN JOSE, CA--(Marketwire - 06/01/11) - Brocade (NASDAQ:BRCD - News) today announced it is working with the United States Army as part of the Installation Information Infrastructure Modernization Program (I3MP) at Fort Carson to create a highly resilient network to support advanced voice, video and critical military applications in an effort to modernize the base's core enterprise information infrastructure. This installation represents one of the largest core-to-edge deployments of 100 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE)-ready routers and 10 GbE aggregation and LAN switches.

Fort Carson, winner of the Network Enterprise Center (NEC) of the Year award, is a United States Army installation located in Colorado. Its 137,000-acre facility is home to critical members of the military, including the 4th Infantry Division, the 10th Special Forces Group, the 71st Ordnance Group (EOD), the 4th Engineer Battalion, the 759th Military Police Battalion, the 10th Combat Support Hospital, the 43rd Sustainment Brigade and the 13th Air Support Operations Squadron of the United States Air Force. Due to the sheer number of users requiring more bandwidth to support emerging forms of external and inter-base network communication, Fort Carson required an infrastructure refresh that would provide scalability for growth while simplifying the delivery of latency-sensitive voice, video and data.

This mission-critical imperative was successfully solved by deploying 100 GbE-ready Brocade® NetIron® XMR Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS) IPv6-ready core routers as the backbone of the network. The MPLS capabilities provide superior efficiency, Quality of Service (QoS) and reduced latency times for critical online applications and services. As a result, Fort Carson's personnel can minimize network bottlenecks by prioritizing their delay-sensitive traffic over a path with minimal hops and lower congestion -- helping boost overall productivity and expedite response to urgent situations.

In the federal government, network manageability is a top priority for IT managers. A challenge has been deploying scalable solutions that are cost-effective and do not degrade or impair network performance. Through the use of Brocade IronView® Network Manager, customers can leverage the power of sFlow scalability and wire-speed operation to deliver a network-wide solution for detecting and monitoring network traffic without impacting application performance. This is a significant advantage over alternative network management solutions that are limited in their scope and that can impact performance when implemented as inline appliances.

The entire Brocade network solution meets the stringent Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) Joint Interoperability and Test Center (JITC) requirements. DISA JITC's mission is to support the war-fighter with direct technical assistance and to conduct performance and interoperability testing and certification for net-centric strategic voice, video and data networking systems integral to the Department of Defense (DoD) Global Information Grid.

"The selection of Brocade by the United States Army's I3MP program is a significant win for Brocade, highlighting our proven expertise in providing high-performance, non-stop networking solutions to government organizations worldwide," said John McHugh, chief marketing officer, Brocade. "By meeting the I3MP network and service requirements, Brocade is well-positioned to further extend its market presence within the government sector as a leading networking provider to support and optimize mission-critical applications."

Additional Information
Brocade Networking Solutions http://www.brocade.com/products/index.page

About Brocade
Brocade (NASDAQ:BRCD - News) networking solutions help the world's leading organizations transition smoothly to a world where applications and information reside anywhere. (www.brocade.com)

Brocade, the B-wing symbol, BigIron, DCFM, DCX, Fabric OS, FastIron, IronView, NetIron, SAN Health, ServerIron, TurboIron, and Wingspan are registered trademarks, and Brocade Assurance, Brocade NET Health, Brocade One, Extraordinary Networks, MyBrocade, VCS, and VDX are trademarks of Brocade Communications Systems, Inc., in the United States and/or in other countries. Other brands, products, or service names mentioned are or may be trademarks or service marks of their respective owners.

© 2011 Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Contact:
Brocade Media ContactKatie BromleyTel: [email protected] Investor RelationsRobert EggersTel: [email protected]

Tech
Will Dell Buy Brocade?

Is Dell shopping for a networking equipment company to buy? Canaccord Genuity analyst Paul Mansky thinks so. In a research note this morning, he notes that Dell "has been busily assembling a full IT stack aimed at realigning the company away from secularly less attractive legacy businesses (like PCs) and incrementally toward future growth in the enterprise.
But he adds that "given networking will most likely be among the most critical source of intelligence" helping to reshape the stack, "not owning this technology puts Dell at risk of simply hopping from one commoditized business into another."

Ergo, he thinks Dell  will be shopping for a networking company, and soon, for several reasons:

•The PC market is arguably headed into an accelerating secular decline (units and ASPs) at the hands of tablets – Dell's cash engine.
•Dell has clearly been seeing success cross-selling Ethernet switching with servers and storage, evidenced by reported results and qualitative commentary from Dell executives.
•Dell's this week made a shelf filing for a potential $3.5 billion debt filing; the company also has $7 billion in net cash.

Mansky says his bet is that Dell with bid for Brocade, a company he rates a Buy with a $7.50 price target; he thinks Dell; could pay as much as $10 for the company.

"We view Brocade as the most likely target for myriad reasons," he writes. "First is the absence of alternatives.
Juniper is 80% service provider – not Dell's business – and Extreme and Force10 carry insignificant share. Second, Brocade's Fibre Channel  business should be an attractive cash engine for at least five years...Finally, Brocade owns Fibre Channel (70% share), exceptionally tight support for which is a must (our view) in a converged world. Net, Fibre Channel is high ROI, legacy Ethernet is low investment and converged products (recently introduced) are the growth engine."

Mansky's theorizing about a deal for Brocade has the stock on the rise: BRCD on Thursday morning is up 48 cents, or 7.2%, to $7.165.

Great Speculations
Buys, holds, and hopes...

Brocade Put Sellers, Call Buyers Prepare For Dell Bid
Jun. 2 2011

Today's tickers: BRCD, IP, APOL & DHI

BRCD – Brocade Communications Systems Inc. – Options volume is heavy in switcher-maker Brocade after a broker note predicted that it fits the bill for a bid from Dell. Shares in Brocade reached a 52-week high after the analyst noted that cash-rich Dell filed a debt-shelf earlier in the week of $3.4 billion or just about enough to buy Brocade if it wanted to change course and enter the networking market. One investor appeared to sell 11,400 put options expiring July at the $6.00 strike presumably on the assumption that its shares remain a hotbed of speculation for the next several weeks. The analyst's note put a price tag on the stock of $10.00 underpinning a surge in the stock, which rose to $7.20 at the day's best. Call options expiring next month were also well bid with the $8.00 strike proving most popular. Around 25,000 options granting the right to buy were exchanged with a current price of just 20 cents indicating a one-in-four chance of success over the next five weeks.

IP – International Paper – Notable activity in options on the paper-maker indicate one investor giving up on a good idea. Options volume of 20,935 on Thursday was made up of just two trades involving 10,000 lots each in what appears to be the closure of a losing calendar spread. On May 19 when shares in International Paper were trading one dollar higher than today at $31.67 an investor bought the same amount of call options expiring in July to buy calls expiring in January. The trade involved the $32 strike price in July and the $36 strike in January with the investor hoping for a steady climb in IP's shares in the meantime. At the time the trade cost the investor 79 cents to employ. However, since that time the trade has suffered with shares wilting to $30.65 causing a narrowing of the calendar spread to 56 cents and imposing losses on the weary trader. It appears as though this time around the investor is giving up on this trade.

APOL – Apollo Group Inc. – Ahead of a report outlining the treatment of students looking for government financial aid, options were active in for-profit provider Apollo. There was substantial speculation in its options with call buyers looking for a swift gain from a favorable decision. The June call series at the $44 strike saw volume of about 13,000 lots midweek and roughly matching volume after a lenient report removed pressure on Apollo whose share price surged by 10% to $46.57 by lunchtime in New York. Earlier the price rose to $48.19. Curiously it appears that some 13,000 call options changed hands to the 'ask' price at a $4.00 premium – substantial, although remember that these call options leapt in-to-the-money overnight offering significant intrinsic value. On Wednesday the same call options closed at a premium of just $1.00.

DHI – DR Horton Inc. – Despite a lackluster performance in the housing market, equally reflected in that of homebuilders' shares, one option investor appears to have made out well in what appear to be a closing transaction in DR Horton. The initial three-legged spread was placed on April 6 when shares in the builder closed at $11.49 and involved the purchase of vertical ratio spread with the lower leg in-the-money calls expiring November and the sale of out-of the-money puts. The investor paid a net 55 cents to buy 10,000 calls at the $11 strike, selling 15,000 calls at the $14 strike and sold 15,000 puts at the $9 strike. Having advanced by 40 cents to $11.89 the investor has been protected from the messy housing market by the fact that he selected the in-the-money call options. That aside, the timing of the initial transaction was pretty shrewd with investor turning bullish the day after DHI traded at its lowest point of this year so far. The trade appears to have been closed at an unadjusted net premium of 108 cents.

A Moody's rating agency warning over an albeit slim likelihood of a government default put government debt prices on the defensive and took away a slug of yesterday's gains. Traders attempted a rally for riskier assets ahead of the market opening on Thursday only to get beaten back by further worries arising over the economy. Factory orders fell harder than expected while in-line initial claims did little to steady nerves ahead of Friday's crucial employment report. On the basis of weakness within an earlier ADP survey of private employers many Wall Street houses have curbed their prediction for Friday's number. Bond prices eased on Thursday but waning confidence in the financial sector meant that bank issues were expelled from many investors' portfolios sending paper prices sharply lower.

Investment Grade –

Morgan Stanley (MS) – With $65mm of its January 2021 maturity on the loose on Thursday, paper issued by Wall Street banker Morgan Stanley had the dubious honor of being the most actively traded issue. Investors sold the 5.75% coupon-carrying paper leading to losses of $1.32 per $1,000 invested and driving the yield higher to 5.23%. Financial stocks were hit hard earlier in the week on fears that the economy is coming to a standstill and staged the worst performance in 10 months.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) – The yield premium on JPMorgan's 10-year paper widened out by three basis points over comparable treasuries as its paper was heavily sold by investors. Around $50mm of its May 2021 issue changed hands with holders losing 88 cents per $1,000 bond as the price eased sending the yield higher by 10 basis points to 4.57%. To illustrate the reversal in sentiment taking place, the price of the bond is fast-approaching par having traded as high as 103.65 on Wednesday. Shares in JPMorgan fell by 0.7% to $41.47 leaving them at the weakest since December 21.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) – Shares in Bank of America have been under constant pressure since February and in today's melee at $11.08 came within 17 cents or 1.5% of a 52-week low established in November. Its share price has since has since turned in to the green on the day as bargain hunters buy. Meanwhile its corporate paper was also under heavy pressure with investors ditching $43mm of its A2-rated May 2021 expiration driving the yield up to 5.08% compared to the 5% coupon it carries. The price slid $1.31 per $1,000 invested through par having traded to as high as 103.40 on Wednesday.

Time Warner Inc. (TWX) – Paper issued by cable and network entertainment provider Time Warner slumped Thursday with its 10-year maturity shedding $1.20 per $1,000 face value as dealers ditched $38mm of its March 2021 maturity. The yield on the paper rose to 4.51% from 4.45% on Wednesday.

Muni-Bond Corner –

Positive technicals dominate the Municipal market.  Municipal issuance is down approximately 50% YTD and there is a record reinvestment of bond redemptions expected this summer with some $48 billion principal payments due June 1st and $30 billion due July 1st.  The technical situation has been responsible for driving the market higher since April and the question is whether the rally has run its course will remain firm until August. Yesterday New York State Environmental Facilities Corp issued $521mm and yields dropped 6 basis points due to large investor interest.  Bonds were issued at 36 bps over the comparable AAA scale.

Tech Trader Daily...
June 1, 2011

Canaccord Genuity's Paul Mansky this afternoon writes that "now is the time" for Dell (DELL) to make a push into networking in a more concerted fashion, and that Brocade (BRCD) could be a target.

Dell owns three pieces of the emerging data center, storage, servers, and services, but aside from simple switching, it lacks a real computer networking offering.

There's an urgency to fill that gap, writes Mansky, as Dell's PC business is at the mercy of the tablet market's cannibalization of PCs. But Dell has had success cross-selling Ethernet switching. With a shelf registration for $3.5 billion in debt, filed today, and with $7 billion of net cash on the books, Dell can do a deal.

Mansky thinks Brocade could be the ticket. He has a Buy rating on Brocade shares, and a $10 price target. Brocade has 70% of the fibre channel storage networking market, which has a high return on investment and should be a cash cow for the next five years. The other likely candidate, Juniper Networks (JNPR), gets most of its revenue from carriers, not enterprise, and is therefore not as good a fit. (Not to mention Juniper has an $18 billion market cap, Brocade, just $3 billion.

Dell shares closed down 48 cents, or 3%, today at $15.60.
Day's Range: 6.89 - 7.27
52wk Range: 4.64 - 7.27
Volume: 56,561,732
Avg Vol (3m): 10,674,800
Market Cap: 3.36B
P/E (ttm): 33.86
EPS (ttm): 0.21
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
8.12%above 13-day EMA
13.60%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 85