Couldn't see a thread on ATVI here, and I think the chart looks pretty good for a bit of bottom fishing - there has certainly been a lot of interest (i.e. volume) in the stock at these levels after a heavy fall in November. Even Piper Jaffray have said that this should be a bottom, giving a $19 price target, more than 35% above where it stands right now.
http://www.forbes.com/2005/12/08/activision-earnings-games-1208markets02.html?partner=yahootix (http://www.forbes.com/2005/12/08/activision-earnings-games-1208markets02.html?partner=yahootix)
It seems strange that they had such a terrible November, despite posting a loss for last quarter, they still beat analysts estimates. Perhaps it was beecause their Q3 estimates of .53 EPS on $790m for the quarter ending in December were lower than analysts etimates of .54 on $800m. Or maybe because they split the stock at the end of October???
Seems strange, as with the XBox 360 just out and they have produced 4 much anticipated and well reviewed titles for it, including one of the most popular games: Call of Duty 2:
I found this on LiveLife's thread:
05 Dec 2005, 10:02 AM EST
Msg. 174876 of 174927
THE RELEASE OF MICROSOFT CORP.'S (MSFT) Xbox 360 just two days before Thanksgiving juiced videogame rentals during that key holiday-shopping week. U.S. consumer spending on rentals shot up 44% to $24.4 million during the week ended Nov. 27, from $17 million in the prior week, according to point-of-sale research by Rentrak Corp. (RENT) Among the top Xbox 360 titles rented that week were Activision Inc.'s (ATVI) "Call of Duty 2," and Electronic Arts Inc.'s (ERTS) "Need for Speed Most Wanted" and "Madden NFL 06."
Other analysts have suggested that with the release of the new XBox and the holiday shopping season, games developers should have a bumper December - this from an interview with Scott Kessler, an S&P research analyst in Businessweek Online last week:
Finally, any thoughts on the situation with Microsoft and the Xbox?
Well, we obviously are positive on Microsoft and think that the Xbox 360, given its new functionalities and timing coming to market earlier than its competitors, will gain share in the coming months in the video game market. We also think that this is a time that investors should be buying developers of video game software such as Electronic Arts and Activision (ATVI ), both of which already have released titles for the Xbox 360.
Intriguingly, they have also been conducting research into in-game advertising, which appears to be quite successful, and could provide an additional revenue stream:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051205/nym072.html?.v=26 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051205/nym072.html?.v=26)
So lots of things going on and yet over a 25% drop in their share price in November???
Seems fishy to me. I think that this could be a very good christmas play and is way undervalued here. Christmas of course is the big season for them and last year EPS was .35 for the Decmber quarter. This year they are predicting .53 for the Christmas quarter. Currently they have a market cap of $3.8B on 273m outstanding shares, a trailing P/E of almost 46 and a forward P/E of only 22.
Technically, you just gotta like that bottom - RSI pulling back from below 30, MACD Hist about to go positive, just crossed 200MA today, which should provide support, and a healthy gap to fill from last month. And big volume accumulation at these levels.
I was going to buy a couple of days ago but my money was tied up, Monday on a break of $14 might be a good time.
Just a bit more on last month's drop -
Seems like it was fuled by a few downgrades from analysts, e.g.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051118/activision_mover.html?.v=1
and
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051122/activision_mover.html?.v=1
this was positive commentary following their Q2 results:
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/11/03/activision-earnings-software-1103markets10.html?partner=yahootix
but they do have a strong and broad holiday game lineup:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051117/nyfnsm12.html?.v=1
My feeling is that once again, the analysts are doing their best to manipulate this stock to their advantage, bring it down to attractive accumulation levels. Institutional investments partially support this view, with a lot of institutional buying and selling recently.
OK now this starts to get good (just getting my digging going here) - check this:
NASDAQ Announces the Annual Re-ranking of the NASDAQ-100 Index
New York, December 9, 2005 — The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. (NASDAQ®; NASDAQ: NDAQ) announced today the annual re-ranking of the NASDAQ-100 Index®, effective with the market open on Monday, December 19, 2005.
"The re-ranking is a unique event in that investors ultimately determine which companies are members of one of the most closely followed indexes in the world," said John L. Jacobs, executive vice president, NASDAQ. "The re-ranking process is objective, rules-based and transparent - one that ensures the NASDAQ-100 Index will continue to be an important benchmark by which you can invest in a diverse array of NASDAQ-listed companies."
The following 12 issues will be added to the NASDAQ-100 Index: Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), NII Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: NIHD), Expedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE), Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTEN), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN), Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNS), Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), RedHat, Inc. (NASDAQ: RHAT), Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ: MNST), CheckFree Corporation (NASDAQ: CKFR), and Discovery Holding Company (NASDAQ: DISCA).
Shares of each company in the Index are included in the NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock® (QQQ® ) (NASDAQ: QQQQ), which is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that trades like a stock. It is the most actively traded listed equity security in the U.S., and it is one of the world's most actively traded ETFs as measured by the average daily share trading volume. QQQ represents ownership in the NASDAQ-100 TrustSM. The Trust holds a portfolio of equity securities that comprise the NASDAQ-100 Index and aims to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond with the NASDAQ-100 Index performance. Since its inception in March 1999, the Trust's total assets have grown to over $20 billion.
The Trustee for the NASDAQ-100 Trust is required to adjust the composition of the Trust within three business days before or after the day on which a change to the composition of the NASDAQ-100 Index becomes effective at the close of the market.
That means that the QQQQ must purchase shares in ATVI within the first 3 days of next week, and in addition, and Nasdaq100 tracker funds will be obligated to do the same. This could really kick things off for ATVI next week :o
okay one more ATVI post and then enough already :P
Just wanted to post the long term (3yr) weekly chart - shows that ATVI is currently at the bottom of the long term trending channel shown by Andrew's pitchfork. This should be followed by a resumption of the overall trend, with a move back towards th median line.
The breakdown of the 15 dollar price appears to be a bear trap play. The B of A analyst downgrade does not hold water. After hour trading continues to run the price up. Only to be met with mild sell-off during the day. Smells like a takeover play to me so I positioned myself accordingly. With all their cash, great titles, the X-box release, Playstation to follow, and now comes the NASDAQ listing -- it felt like someone ( perhaps someone who knew the NASDAQ listing was imminent ) intended to drive the price down for the purpose of buying at bargain prices. Sure enough last week Jamdat gets the buyout offer. But tomorrow ( and for the rest of this week ) I expect ATVI to clear 14 easily. On Dec 19th ATVI will be part of the index. Buying this week will occur ahead of the listing. In addition there is 2.78 days of short interest positions which will add upward price pressure this week. The November game sales data released last week showed ATVI ahead of the pack, then within one hour of release the data was recalled. What manipulation. Time for ATVI to spring ahead.
Scotty, just wanted to add a comment to your the 8x8 momentum play. The late day bounce and AH continuation rally has legs until proven otherwise. I will enter tomorrow with a 6:1 reward to risk plan ( 30% gain or 5% loss ). I will take money off the table at a 30% rise ( just under 4 dollars a share or a 5% stop loss to my entry price ). Premarket action should be exciting. If the opportunity presents itself I may do a buy - sell -for a quick flip then a buy and hold for the regular trading session. If the pre market trade results in a profit it will cushion my buy and hold risk reward strategy. May very well get two up trading days out of this momentum play.
Executed as planned. Entered at 2.93 on the pre-market open. Closed out at 3.30 for the completion of phase one.
Now do we get the pullback to 3 dollars for a second entry or will 3.30 hold and then go up from there. 15 minutes to the open. So we will not have long top wait.
PS Scottish Trader, ATVI is moving wonderfully this morning. I am long the Jan DIA AB call options and the Monday morninmg kickoff rally is in gear. Let's rock.
Re-entered position at 2.98 partial and 3.00 for the balance of the order. Let the run up continue.
Resistance now at 3.30 and then 3.50.
Support at 3.20 Stop set at 3.12
Will consider a timed sale ( regardless of price ) at 11:00 to 11:30. Ususally the morning peak price from a technical point of view.
Hey Dez,
Hope you made some good trades this morning - EGHT was on a pretty solid run down, I ended up gedtting back out lower than I wanted, but am back in again. As for ATVI, it has just filled this mornings gap and I'm waiting to see which way it wants to go from here. Have not filled a position yet. Will see.
OK,
Well, Calven wa right on thee money in comments he gave me about ATVI over the weekend. I spotted a completed Wolfewave in the chart, and it looked to have bottomed. Calven said that the target trendline from the Wolfewave should most likely become resistance, which was exactly what occured today. After gapping up, ATVI formed a symmetrical triangle which it broke out of to the downside to fill the open gap. I was expecting it to bounce from there, but it decided it had more downside to play with, bottoming and wallowing around 13.62-13.65. As planned I got a fill, but not until mid morning, at 13.77. So I am slightly down on this but have to plan a simple trading strategy. For now it is to hold unless it is set to close below 13.20, which was the recent bottom. There is a small ascending tendline that is still holding, and I would like to see a continuation up that line. I expect this new descending resistance to be tested shortly and broken through. ATVI is still very attractive at these levels. 1st target is the bottom of the gap around 15.50.
Oh by the way, apparently the new NPD report will be out after tomorrow's close, giving video game sales numbers for November - at the moment analysts expect them to be down from last year and not encouraging, but they could well contain a positive surprise.
not a great day for ATVI, as it held strong for most of the day above the open, and then bottomed out, presumably when the NPD figures leaked.
While the NPD report signals weakness for the video game sector as a whole this Christmas, showing an 18% drop in sales vs. last November, this seems to be largely due to the release of 2 "must-have" titles last Nov. (Halo 2 and GTA:SA), and people holding off for XBox 360 purchases and the subsequent lack of XBoxes hampering sales, their numbers for Activision were excellent, showing sales of $97m in November, up 54% from Nov last year. Most of the drop was concentrated on other companies such as Take Two (which would have had to really pull something out of the back to match San Andreas's sales last year).
The Street article can be found here:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/gamesandgadgets/10257325.html
Activision do appear to have a strong line-up for the holiday season, and I continue to think that these market concerns here will be short lived. I definitely plan to hold through to next year.
ATVI released this after the bell today:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051214/activision_outlook.html?.v=1
Ugly :P :-[ :'(
Down almost 15% AH - tomorrow could be interesting, will see what gives....
Look..... ;D
Make a pick, got to track of it. ;)
Not tracking your picks you shall miss the moves....up or down....Long or Short.
It's hard sometimes ,I know. I have did the same thing..... :D
Below are the charts for,
6 month
1 year
2 year
3 year
Always impressed with you Setravis, I have a mighty hard time keeping track of them all... but it is true that ATVI would have made for some very nice swing trades over the last 9 months!
Will be interesting to see if it can break 16 in short order... Will keep watching ;)
AP
Ahead of the Bell: Activision Rises
Tuesday November 6, 8:40 am ET
Activision Up on Higher Fiscal 3rd-Qtr and 2008 Forecasts, Analysts Praise Upcoming Games
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Activision Inc. edged up in premarket electronic trading Tuesday after the video game publisher predicted strong sales during the holiday season.
The Santa Monica, Calif.-based company reported an adjusted profit for its fiscal second quarter, while analyst polled by Thomson Financial expected a loss.
Analysts said the company has a solid lineup of games in the next few quarters, including "Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare." Edward Williams of BMO Capital Markets expects "enormous" sales of the first-person shooter.
Williams raised his price target on Activision shares to $24 from $21, and kept a "Market Perform" rating on the stock.
"The company has a strong line-up for the holidays, and should receive a strong performance from titles released in the first two quarters of the fiscal year as well," he said.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes said Activision will have the industry's best slate of games in the holiday season.
Shares added 14 cents, to $23.04, in premarket trading. The stock closed at $22.90 Monday, and ranged from $22.88 to $23.09 premarket.
Yesterday's closing chart.......
Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 15, 2006, 07:33:23 PM
Always impressed with you Setravis, I have a mighty hard time keeping track of them all... but it is true that ATVI would have made for some very nice swing trades over the last 9 months!
Will be interesting to see if it can break 16 in short order... Will keep watching ;)
I'm very impressed with a lot of members on our trading boards,
You being one of them ! Take to the limits... ;) Keep up the great work. (applaud)
Activision, Inc. (Nasdaq:ATVI) is raising its net revenue and earnings per diluted share outlook for the fiscal third quarter ending December 31 2007 and for fiscal year 2008. Robert Kotick, Chairman and CEO, Activision, Inc., said, "We are confident that the third quarter of fiscal 2008 will be the largest and most profitable quarter ever. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock and our newly released Call of Duty 4(TM): Modern Warfare(TM) already are two of the biggest entertainment titles this year. Due to the strong consumer response to our slate through October and strong retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend, we are raising our financial outlook for the December quarter and the fiscal year."
Read the complete Stock Report here: http://creating-wealth.blogspot.com/
"ATVI" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;D
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock. :( ::)
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$ ;) ;D
I will leave you today's closing chart while I'm in this thread.......
Vivendi to Buy Major Activision Stake
Sunday December 2, 8:21 pm ET
By Keith St. Clair, Associated Press Writer
Game Makers Vivendi Games, Activision to Combine in Deal That Gives Vivendi Controlling Stake
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Vivendi SA said Sunday that it plans to acquire a controlling stake in Activision Inc. and combine the company with Vivendi Games in a deal that would create a rival to Electronic Arts Inc. as the world's largest video game publisher.
ADVERTISEMENT
The combination of Santa Monica-based Activision, whose titles include "Guitar Hero," "Call of Duty" and the "Tony Hawk" series, and Vivendi Games, which publishes "Crash Bandicoot" and owns the online role-playing franchise "World of Warcraft," would create the world's largest pure-play online and console game publisher, the companies said.
Vivendi Games will convert its equity into Activision shares valued at $8.1 billion, and Vivendi will buy an additional $1.7 billion of stock, for a total of $9.8 billion, giving Vivendi a 52 percent stake in a new company to be called Activision Blizzard. On that basis, Activision and Vivendi valued the combined company at $18.9 billion.
"This transaction has always stuck out as the way to become the number one most successful video-game publisher," Activision Chief Executive Bobby Kotick said in an interview.
Vivendi's Irvine, Calif.-based Blizzard Entertainment is behind the top multiplayer online role-playing game franchise, "World of Warcraft," which the company says more than 9.3 million subscribers worldwide. Blizzard's Warcraft and Diablo series are two of the top-selling video game lines of all time.
Jean-Bernard Levy, chairman and chief executive officer of Vivendi, pledged the deal "will unlock the value of Blizzard."
Said Jeff Brown, spokesman for Electronic Arts: "We wish them luck. We look forward to the competition and believe that EA still has the strongest portfolio of perennial game franchises."
Kotick, who will stay on as president and CEO of the new company, said the deal had been in negotiations since January.
Under the agreement, shares of Vivendi Games will be converted into 295.3 million new shares of Activision common stock at a price of $27.50 per share, for a value of $8.1 billion, the companies said in a statement.
Vivendi, based in Paris, France, also will purchase 62.9 million newly issued shares of Activision common stock at a price of $27.50 per share, or $1.7 billion, giving Vivendi its 52 percent stake.
Activision Blizzard will continue to operate as a public company traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker ATVI.
After the transaction closes, expected in the first half of 2008, Activision Blizzard will launch a $4 billion all-cash tender offer to purchase up to 146.5 million Activision Blizzard common shares at $27.50 each. Vivendi also has agreed to acquire an additional $700 million of newly issued Activision shares, giving Vivendi about a 68 percent stake in Activision Blizzard if the tender offer is fully subscribed.
The offer price is a 24 percent premium to Activision's closing price Friday of $22.15 per share.
Activision Blizzard's board of directors will be comprised of six directors designated by Vivendi, two Activision management directors and three independent directors who currently serve on Activision's board of directors.
Vivendi Games CEO Bruce Hack will serve as vice chairman and chief corporate officer of Activision Blizzard.
The merger will provide Activision Blizzard with the most diversified and broadest portfolio of interactive entertainment assets in the industry, according to the statement.
The companies said the transaction would be accretive to earnings for both companies' shareholders in the first year after the deal closes. The combined company is targeting pro forma operating income of $1.1 billion and pro forma earnings per share of more than $1.20 in calendar year 2009.
There have been a number of themes I should have picked up on as a college student over the past 5 years or so. .
1.) The iPod. If I had bought a little bit of AAPL when I first heard of the iPod, I would be doing pretty well. Even the first time I bought one. I had a roommate and everything who loved mac, so I should've seen the massive growth coming there, too. And we all know Jobs is a genius. The return here would be truly remarkable. What a turnaround!
2.) Nintendo. The Wii is SO fun, and you can't buy it anywhere...seems like quite the combination for an explosion in stock price. Nintendo has worked this perfectly, I don't know if they can't really make enough Wii's to meet demand but the fact that they are always running out kinda keeps them "hot" or whatever the lingo may be. Anyway, I caught on to this idea but sold early and haven't reaped the benefits.
3.) CROX, DECK, UA
These are all self explanatory. Deckers makes the ugly boots called Uggs. Girls love them though. I think UA looks decent here, still a bit pricey but they have all the room in the world to expand, even if they can take a small chunk of Nike's pie that is huge growth.
4.) Activision
Guitar Hero is so popular. I shoud've bought this summer when it was the only game anyone would talk about.
5.) RIMM
It's not like the blackberry is something we all just heard about after RIMM's run. You could see this a mile away, I really wish I had gotten my paws on some RIMM.
anyway, I guess I am just trying to remind myself to catch on to such trends in the future. It seems college kids often catch on to trends in their early stages. I'd say this also applies for anywhere in 20s.
ScottishTrader,
This is a beast ! Another Pop...this has put on such a show !!
I would say, indeed a turnaround ;)
Symmetrical Triangle... BreakOut !!!
;) :D ;D
Beat earnings...Activision, 2nd best selling online game Modern Warfare.
beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (27.70 +0.21) Reports Q4 (Mar) earnings of $0.17 per share, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 92.8% year/year to $602.5 mln vs the $369.1 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.30 vs. $1.18 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $3.1 bln vs. $2.82 bln consensus.
52wk Range: 16.94 - 29.87
Volume: 22,077,089
Avg Vol (3m): 3,928,410
Market Cap: 9.33B
P/E (ttm): 34.50
EPS (ttm): 0.92
Technicals
Record Price High... ;D
Most Actives... ;D
Record Price Break Out... ;D
Gap Up
MACD - Bullish
Percentage Gainer
Price Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
15.63%above 13-day MA
16.61%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 89
Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrade to Buy
Analyst Downgrade to Hold
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $7,982.69
P/E Ratio: 30.16
PEG Ratio: 1.39362
Next Earnings: 08/07/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
Below are the 6 month, 1 year, 2 year and 3 year charts...awesome !! ;)