I don't have to dig further about ANVX than I did at the 30 minutes look to know that I must buy this stock for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio:
«The President and CEO of Avanex (AVNX), bought 150,000 shares at the open market on Thursday. Now he holds 205,000 shares, so this buying was pretty significant.
Also, a number of directors and others at the company exercised stock options to buy shares last week. The co-ordinated action from insiders, buying shares of their own company, is a bullish factor. It can be positive news coming, better times ahead, we don't know, but there's no doubt insiders buy because they believe (or they know), the share price will increase, right? (as everybody else, but in principle they know more about the company than the average investor).
Volume has increased significantly over the last couple of weeks, as did the share price:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11423;image)
The company is in an industry that has been hot lately, the semiconductor - integrated circuits. All of its competitors have attractive charts. Here's a direct competitors comparison:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11424;image)
The fact that the whole industry is rising is a plus for this pick.
Reading the last quarterly earnings report from the company I see that fundamentals are improving, in fact the 3rd quarter was the best quarter in more than 2 years for AVNX (and the stock price is 80% below what it was 2 years ago).
As guidance for the 4th quarter of the current year (for the company it is the 2nd quarter of 2006, never understood why the fiscal year isn't always the same as the calendar year) the company says the following:
«Revenue is expected to be in the range of $41 million to $45 million in the fiscal second quarter. Gross margins are expected to increase to be more than 10 percent.»
Gross margins are growing from 0% in the second quarter, to 5% in third quarter, to more than 10% expected for the 4th quarter. That's a big development and achievement. The fact that the CEO and other insiders are buying shares now tells me the company will deliver strong results for the 4th quarter.
I believe AVNX is attractive at this point.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11425;image)»
I'll buy AVNX around the open, 6.66% of trading capital, as always.
Spectacular breakout on AVNX, with 10 million plus shares traded. My business with this stock is to let the profits run.
AVNX came down a bit on profit taking. I continue to feel that the reasons I gave for this purchase will propell AVNX further to the upside.
Yesterday was FNSR's day. Today might me JDSU's or AVNX's. The whole industry is rising on improving fundamentals, I don't expect this trend to stop before January 2006.
There was a big sell off on AVNX yesterday, I really don't know why, I guess the stock just rose too much over the last couple of weeks.
But remember, the President and CEO of the company bought 150,000 shares just beneath this level (prices between $0.87 and $0.93), and it were almost his first shares of AVNX. Possibly traders, when were crazy selling this, remembered that too, because the stock recovered a bit (well, about 5%), to close at $1.04.
Nothing has changed, I'll continue holding AVNX.
AVNX recovered almost all of its losses yesterday. We got a bullish chart pattern at this point. The whole Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits industry is rising and AVNX looks to be undervalued against its peers.
I'll continue holding it without reserves.
In my opinion, AVNX could go to $1.50
That will be nice profit for you David.... let me guess ummm.. 13,700 shares? :D ;D :D ;D
Quote from: Terlisa on December 18, 2005, 09:59:35 PM
In my opinion, AVNX could go to $1.50
That will be nice profit for you David.... let me guess ummm.. 13,700 shares? :D ;D :D ;D
Lol, I have a little more than that, 17,000 shares. But I never count money :)
I think there are two things moving AVNX at this moment:
- Insider buying and;
- «Q2 FY 2006 Outlook
Revenue is expected to be in the range of $41 million to $45 million in the fiscal second quarter. Gross margins are expected to increase to be more than 10 percent.»
Let's see how significant is this gross margin improvement:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11967;image)
From 2003 and 2004 this is an important fundamental shift. And in 2003 and 2004 AVNX was trading between $3 and $4. If operating expenses stay basically the same the company will lose about 9 cents over the next quarter. Let's see the EPS trend for AVNX:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11968;image)
(Results for the last 2 quarters are annualized)
It sure looks like AVNX is on the path to profitability.
If we make a direct comparison between AVNX and its competitors we see that none of them is making money:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=11969;image)
I'll continue holding AVNX, maybe for the long term, I need to see some more of it.
AVNX came down a bit with the general market yesterday. I considered selling, since I fear the stock may go down as the Nasdaq goes down.
But, I read the complete thread and I believe my fundamental reasoning is sound. AVNX seems to have more upside potential, even in the face of a falling market.
Therefore I'll continue holding AVNX for some more time, with the hope that it breaks $1.20 on the upside.
Quote from: Terlisa on December 14, 2005, 12:15:21 AM
Just like this one AVNX.. it crossed over 0.20 level then shoots up above 0.80, profit taking in AVNX is just waiting around the corner ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1892.0
Looks like AVNX is going down to meet the 13 Day EMA before going for another ride ;).. some investors need to take profit from the table.... Remember this was only 60-70 cents range couple of weeks ago...StochRSI is going down that should be a nice entry point again ;)
I agree Terlisa :)
But, I still believe insiders will support the stock on any fall below $1, so the risk is on the upside. Since we're expecting positive news for the 4th quarter, I think I can continue holding AVNX, even though I feel the general market turning bearish as we speak.
Perhaps I'll take a short position in one of AVNX's competitors to hedge this position in the near future, but not today.
looks like we may get that breakout tomorrow - a very solid push at the end of the day, closing strong at 1.21, with a high just before that of 1.22. ;D
Formed a small ascending triangle after the initial big move which I think represents the consolidation phase - the target of this triangle would be at 1.41 (range .99-1.20) which may be a good short term target, although there may also be resistance around 1.37. Who knows, Terlisa could be right and it could break up to test the gap at 1.53 :o
Personally I am trying to get my portfolio to a position where it is manageable over Christmas and New Year when I may not be able to check it very much - any suggestions on how to do this if you are not able to check it every day? But for now AVNX has got to be a keeper ;) May even give us a nice Christmas present tomorrow - will see.
QuotePersonally I am trying to get my portfolio to a position where it is manageable over Christmas and New Year when I may not be able to check it very much - any suggestions on how to do this if you are not able to check it every day? But for now AVNX has got to be a keeper Wink May even give us a nice Christmas present tomorrow - will see.
I have a suggestion for that: make a trading plan based on closing prices and just check quotes each day before the close.
I agree with you, AVNX did close above $1.20, and that's quite bullish for the short term. Technicals and fundamentals are improving as we speak, evidence of that will be news when they issue this quarter's earnings report.
I'm thinking of holding the stock until the earnings release date.
Wouldn't you know it, just when I take my eyes off it. Look what all takes place.
Very nice call and play David.....Lot's of Applaud !!
Wow...The only other thing I can say is.....Merry Christmas....$$$$$$......and a Happy New Year!!!! ;D ;)
Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
25.50%above 13-day EMA
50.46%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 97
I bought it today at break-out.
Hope that it will keep up next week.
Be very careful, not let the profit slipped away.
AVNX
Thank you setravis, Merry Christmas :)
Yes Terlisa, $1.5 - $1.6 target seems reasonable. There's a gap to be filled at $1.66, I wonder if AVNX can get there over the short term?
For now the breakout we had on the last trading day gives me a technical target of $1.21-$0.99 = $0.22 + $1.21 = $1.43, not much further away than where we are now.
This is all coming from that expectation of an increase in gross margins from 0%, to 5% to more than 10% this quarter. Probably people are wondering if this is a permanent fundamental shift or just a one time event. And, if with more than 10% gross margins the company is in reach of profitability.
For the next update I'll read the 10-Q report of the company to know more about their business and prospects. For now, if there's a big spike up, I'll take profits, if not I'll continue holding.
So, the plan is:
1) Take profits if $1.66 is reached
2) If not, continue holding AVNX
There were some news yesterday from AVNX just before the close:
«To Our Stockholders:
Notice is hereby given that a Special Meeting of Stockholders (the "Special Meeting") of Avanex Corporation, a Delaware corporation ("Avanex"), will be held on January 27, 2006, at 10:00 a.m., local time, at Avanex's corporate headquarters, 40919 Encyclopedia Circle, Fremont, California 94538, for the following purposes:
1.To approve the elimination of the floor price limitations from the anti-dilution provisions of each of Avanex's Amended and Restated Senior Secured Convertible Notes and related Amended and Restated Warrants to purchase Common Stock;
2. To approve amendments to Avanex's Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation which would effect a reverse stock split, pursuant to which any whole number of outstanding shares of Avanex's common stock between and including seven and fifteen would be combined into one share of such stock, and to authorize the Board of Directors to select and file one such amendment which would effect the reverse stock split within such range; and
3. To transact such other business as may properly come before the Special Meeting or any adjournment or postponement thereof.
I was reading some of the last 10-Q report from the company and I don't think the current rise will last much longer, despite the improving fundamentals from the company.
The stock came up from $0.62 to $1.48, a 138% rise in about a month. I have a 28% open profit on it and the general market is turning decisively bearish.
I'll take the 28% profit and start preparing a bear campaign.
AVNX is tanking today due to disappointing guidance:
Avanex Announces Preliminary Financial Results for Second Fiscal Quarter 2006 (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=163977&guid=%7BA4FF71C8%2D1FFE%2D4544%2D8DDE%2D3FDB042B6EFD%7D&symb=)
I'm glad I sold it at $1.35 for a 28% profit, or I would be losing now :)
AVNX looks now as a decent short sell setup with break of either trend line on chart
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=avnx,uu[e,a]daclyyay[dc][pc50!c200!d20,2!c9!f][vc60][ila13,25,8!lb14!lh14,3][j48548774,y]&listNum=21
May be time to have another look at AVNX - they reported after hours today, and while revs were down, we already knew that - booking revenues of $36.1M vs. $41.2M last Q, their net loss was reduced to $13.4M or .09 per share, much better than last quarter's .12/sh on $16.9M
Cash burn has been reduced to $6m, and they are tightening their belts and moving towards profitability in 2006 (hopefully).
Also, the chart has a nice little ascending triangle just waiting to break out. Tomorrow may be the day to break 1.20 again - look for the candle.
Oh, and its my pick for the stock picking contest, so I hope it does too ;D
AVNX has been acting well since it retested support at 1.20 after the breakout on positive earnings - today it broke out of an ascending wedge to the upside - currently at 1.37. The question now is whether it can break 1.40 and test recent highs - all looks good so far, just need a bit more volume to kick in....
Anyone else still holding AVNX???
I'm in and I wanted to thank you. Your posts here kept reminding me to keep an eye on it. I got back in just after that last report and baring anything ugly I plan on parking here for the long term.
Volumes pushing a bit and and it's bouncing off that $1.40 resistance.
Lets keep going!
uc.
Maybe the cause for some activity today.
Avanex revises Q2 net loss to $0.13 a share
Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:59 PM ET
Feb 17 (Reuters) - Avanex Corp. (AVNX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it was revising its second-quarter net loss to $18.5 million, or 13 cents a share, from a previously reported net loss of $13.4 million, or 9 cents a share.
The maker of products for optical communication networks said the revision was to accommodate the one-time non-cash gain of $4.5 million which was earlier recognized as other income in its second-quarter results reported on Feb. 8.
FACT BOX
AVNX.O (Avanex Corp)
Last: $1.39
Change: +0.11
Up/Down: +8.59%
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Avanex revises Q2 net loss to $0.13 a share
UPDATE 1-TABLE-Avanex Q2 loss narrows
TABLE-Avanex Q2 loss narrows
Click here to find out more!
The gain from the extinguishment of the capital leases at the company's French subsidiary will be spread over the 12-year term of the remaining lease in the final accounting treatment, Avanex said in a statement. (Reporting by Dhanya Ann Thoppil in Bangalore)
Glad to hear it Usedcasting! Yeah, I got in at 1.15 after the earnings release. Had been scoping an entry around 1.06, but was all tied up at the time. Anyway, it looks like you could be right, certainly at least the market didn't take this re-statement badly, and it means that a portion of this will be added to their bottom line for the next 3 quarters which is no bad thing.
I haven't figured out a targe yet, but while 1.40 is still holding it down, the pressure is on - I think it should break next week if it doesn't today - target of the ascending triangle is 1.45, let's see if it can push recent highs in the high 1.40s. I still think this has a lot more to run over the longer term.
Well, I was just sure it would break 1.40 the other day when it pushed upward, left my computer for the rest of the day, and found it closed at 1.32!! Which started the pullback all the way down to 1.19. Bummed!! (and I was doing so well on the stock picking competition too :-\)
But on the plus side, the last few days action has demonstrated the strong support at the 1.19-20 level, and I think we will see it push back into the 1.30s and 1.40s now. AVNX seems to have developed a nice channel - my aim will be to sell near the top of the channel, now sitting in the mid 1.40s. Will watch for resistance at 1.40 this time though.
AVNX ripping today - has broken through key resistance at 1.66 and is running big time :)
The triple play roll out is beginning the full roll out. AVNX supplies Nortel, Alcatel-lucent, Fujitsu, Siemens, Tellabs and Cisco just to name but a few of the big players.
It announced it's new product portfolio earlier this year. The submarine business is in full swing.
Whats important here is AVNX supplies %70 of Alcatel's needs. Alcatel has a 29 province rollout in China, together with 52 current triple play roll out contracts.
Verizon is laying a new Pacific cable with the capacity to take 62 million consecutive phone calls. Verizon is also laying a 7th mesh Atlantic cable to provide Europe with the extra capacity needed for IPTV and increasing facilities.
Alcatel Lucent are at the end of both these global roll outs in a big way, AVNX supplies them.
The activity in the States is showing strength. M&A activity Ericcson Cisco.
AVNX has big potential 2007. No options problems at AVNX like VTSS FNSR.
AVNX growth is touching %50 annually. Over %12 sequentially Quarter after quarter. DD and Radar.
Roll on the first quarter$$
Looks to have taken out some stops this a.m.
GLTA...Jody
On the move. Looking nice here!