TIE - Titanium Metals Corporation produces titanium melted and mill products. The company offers titanium sponge, melted, and mill products for aerospace, industrial, and other applications
2 major advantages...
TITANIUM products and AEROSPACE means GROWTH !!!
entry point below 70 $ opportunity
TIE has gone up too fast ! Let it come in a little, under $65 is a BUY ! It will see $100 in 2006 !!
TIE will NOT go under 60, the most was to touch 20 days EMA, after two days sell ff.....TIE is going to be one of 10 top companies in 2006, titanium demand is much over supply, specially for civil and military avio industry...Facts:
1. TIE is the numberr one titanium supplier in the Western world, "right place in right time"
2. BA and Airbus are having huge orders, mining is not the problem, processing is...
3. recent sell off was caused by "shorts attack", tight stop loss orders, and profit taking...
Looks at this ascending triangle!!!
I will buy if 75.50 is hit. Awesome COIL PATTERN (ASC TRIANGLE)
I have TIE for the same technical reasons as Calven highlighted (I assume Calven now has TIE in his port ;)
They recently approved a 2for1 stock split and announce earnings early Feb.
an 16, 2006 (M2 EQUITYBITES via COMTEX) -- The board of directors of Titanium Metals Corporation (TIMET) (TIE), producer of titanium metal products, announced on 13 January that it has approved a two-for-one split of the company's common stock at USD0.01 par value per share. The stock split will be carried out through a stock dividend.
The record date has been set as the close of business on 6 February 2006 and holders will receive one additional share for each share held on the record date. The distribution date is 16 February 2006 subject to certain regulatory requirements.
The conversion rate of the company's 6 3/4% Series A preferred stock will subsequently be changed to six and two-third shares of common stock for each share of Series A preferred stock, and the conversion rate of the of 6 5/8% convertible preferred securities, beneficial unsecured convertible securities (BUCS) issued by TIMET Capital Trust I will be changed to 2.678 shares of common stock for each BUCS due to the stock split.
The board of directors and stockholders holding more than a majority of the outstanding shares of common stock have approved an amendment to the company's Certificate of Incorporation increasing the company's authorised common stock to 200m.
TIE - Added last week. Amazing CHART! "DEEPTHROAT" tells me boeing is buying up titanium and it will continue into 2007...
Check out HCBK too AUSSIE, same technical setup. GREAT fundamentals! Started a thread in this forum. Low(no) risk/extremely high reward....
Cal >:D
QuoteTIE - Added last week. Amazing CHART! "DEEPTHROAT" tells me boeing is buying up titanium and it will continue into 2007
Also saw recently that Rolls Royce had a bunch of titanium aero parts stolen. Seems Titanium is in hot demand ;)
Looks like TIE will take out all time highs again this week.
In 2003 you could have bought TIE shares for the equivalent of $1.....Now that's a multi bagger
Will take a look at HCBK thanks
TIE is going higher!
I strongly suggest buying some TIE -Will be over 100$ in 3-6 months...
Ascending triangle breakout should happen tomorrow...
TIE financials released today. I the street didnt like something....
I think it may have been the sector as a whole. Anyone know anything about this? All gains erased today ???
Amazing how it turned on a dime....
not sure if it is quite the same sector, but gold prices fell today sharply. this could be why
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060207/gold_movers.html?.v=1
Woops forgot to add comments to this thread.
Stock splits on Friday (2for1)
2 Insiders buy 200K shares over past couple days (Harold Simmons and Norman Green)
Reaction to prelim earnings was negative. My take was that results were good and guidance for 2006 (35 to 50% growth) was very good!! Intersting to see how the split and earns news plays out now.
Feb 13, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Titanium Metals Corporation ("TIMET" or the "Company") (TIE) announced that full year 2005 sales revenue increased 50% to approximately $750 million, compared to 2004 sales revenue of $501.8 million. The increase in sales revenue results from increases in volumes and average selling prices for both melted and mill products. Mill product average selling prices increased approximately 31% and melted product average selling prices increased approximately 50% during 2005, as compared to 2004. Mill product sales volumes increased approximately 11% while melted product sales volumes increased approximately 6% during 2005, as compared to 2004.
The Company expects full year 2005 operating income of $170 million to $175 million, compared to operating income of $43.0 million for 2004. The increase in operating income primarily results from higher selling prices and volumes for both melted and mill products, offset in part by higher raw material costs. Operating income in 2004 has been restated for the effects of the Company's previously reported change its method for inventory costing from the last-in, first-out ("LIFO") cost method to the specific identification cost method for the approximate 40% of the Company's consolidated inventories previously accounted for under the LIFO cost method.
The Company expects full year 2005 net income attributable to common stockholders of approximately $142 million to $147 million, compared to $43.3 million (as restated) for 2004. The 2005 net income attributable to common stockholders includes (i) a $13.9 million pre-tax non-operating gain on the sale of certain property and (ii) a $51 million income tax benefit related to the reversal of the Company's deferred tax valuation allowance in the U.S. and the U.K.
The Company's backlog at the end of December 2005 was a record $870 million, a $160 million (23%) increase over the $710 million backlog at the end of September 2005 and a $420 million (93%) increase over the $450 million backlog at the end of December 2004.
The Airline Monitor, a leading aerospace publication, recently issued its January 2006 semiannual forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries. In this new forecast, The Airline Monitor increased its estimate of large commercial aircraft deliveries over the next five years beginning in 2006 by 513 planes, a 12% increase over its July 2005 forecast. This forecast includes a 20% increase in Boeing 787 wide bodies, which are expected to require a higher percentage of titanium in their airframes, engines and other parts than any other commercial aircraft. The Company continues to believe that the titanium industry is in the early stages of the business cycle and that the current uptrend will likely continue beyond 2006.
As a result, the Company currently expects full year 2006 net sales revenue will increase by 35% to 50% from 2005. This increase is primarily driven by expected continued increases in melted and mill product average selling prices. Although raw material and other costs will likely continue to increase in 2006 as well, the Company expects to achieve significant operating income growth again in 2006, with anticipated full year 2006 operating income at levels 35% to 50% higher as compared to operating income in 2005.
TIMET currently intends to release its final fourth quarter 2005 and full year 2005 results contemporaneously with the filing of its 2005 Annual Report on Form 10-K ("Annual Report") with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). The Company currently expects to file such Annual Report on or before the SEC's applicable filing deadline of March 16, 2006. The Company's 2005 results are subject to completion of an audit and the filing of its Annual Report. While the Company currently believes the financial information that will be contained in its Annual Report when filed will be consistent with the information contained in this release, the financial information contained in this release is, however, preliminary in nature, subject to revision and could differ from the Company's consolidated financial statements that will be contained in its Annual Report when filed.
TIE will be just fine... Fundamentals are outstanding - 90% growth and 850 million in backlog. Stay the course! >:D
TIE made a new 52 week high today. Congrats to all current longs. For those not long, TIE is still an attractive entry at current levels. I think TIE will move 30-40% in 2006.
cal >:D
TIE up another 3% today - 12% now total. I think this one will keep going up. China is competing for Titanium now too!
cal >:D
Aircraft demand pushes titanium sky high, buyers say
02/20/2006 08:38:34
By Daniel Magnowski LONDON (Reuters) - Prices of titanium rose by 20 percent in the past year on demand from aircraft manufacturers and are at a point where other buyers fear they will be unable to afford it, market sources said on Monday.
"We now have a business-threatening situation," a source at a non-aerospace titanium consumer said.
"Lead times are lengthening and prices are uncontrollable. We may have to withdraw from the market -- it's an absolute nightmare."
He said this might mean his company would be unable to undertake long-term project requiring the use of titanium.
Prices of pure titanium rose by more than 20 percent over the past year, he said, as aircraft manufacturers bought it in large quantities.
Titanium, a strong, anti-corrosive metal, is needed in aircraft engines, airframes and other uses exposed to hostile conditions.
Pure titanium is made from titanium sponge <TIT-SPONGE-LON>, production of which fell following a slump in aircraft orders after September 11 2001.
"All the sponge manufacturers took capacity out because the market was so flat, then when aerospace took off again, so did prices," the titanium user said.
"There are other applications too -- titanium is used in power stations and desalination plants, which the Chinese are building hand over fist. Sponge capacity went out, then aerospace recovered, so now there is a massive shortfall in sponge supply."
Sponge traded at under $10 a kg for most of the preceding decade before spiking over $30 in early 2005.
It since fell to the mid-$20s but now showed signs of approaching $30 again, traders said.
"I've heard up to $27-28 for aerospace grade, and this could go up even further," one trader said.
Airliners under development such as the Boeing <BA.N> 787 Dreamliner and Airbus <EAD.PA> A-380 use greater quantities of the super-strong metal than earlier models, and suppliers of titanium products benefited from this increased demand.
"The market is busy due to aerospace business and prices are high," a UK-based manufacturer said.
Sales at Allegheny Technologies <ATI.N> rose 30 percent in 2005, and third-quarter sales at rival producer Titanium Metals Corporation <TIE.N> were up over 50 percent year-on-year.
At the other end of the product range, ferro-titanium <TIT-FERRO-LON> - has also been affected by demand from planemakers.
Ferro-titanium prices rose sharply in 2004 and 2005 as more scrap than usual was recycled for use in primary titanium units for sale to aircraft manufacturers, leaving ferro-titanium producers with higher input costs.
"People covered for the first quarter, but we foresee large enquiries for Q2 though we haven't seen them yet," a European dealer said.
"Prices are stable but fundamentals are still tight."
Great find Aussie! (applaud)
TIE wil be great in 2006!
Also take a look at HCBK, might breakout tomorrow...
cal >:D
Nice close on TIE today 43.31... up 2.58%
Watch closely for a breakout over 44.00 TIE is making new Highs :)
A knew this one was a winner! Up a tons on this... still going up after the split!
52 week highs...
Might start taking some off the table when it gets to $45.00
TIE on the move. Closed at 43.55 this week.
Look at this Insider transactions:
15-Feb-06 SIMMONS, HAROLD C
Chairman 75,000 Direct Purchase at $68.4073 - $68.739 per share. $5,143,0002
14-Feb-06 GREEN, NORMAN N.
Director 4,000 Direct Purchase at $67.43 - $67.6 per share. $270,0002
14-Feb-06 SIMMONS, HAROLD C
Chairman 145,000 Direct Purchase at $69.3111 per share. $10,050,109
;)
Alot of action today on TIE was upto 44.50 this morning and then dropped to 41.30... Picked up more shares at 41.60 and so far im up about 1%. Today was a perfect entry point.
I am quite confident TIE shares will be up at least 20% in 2006 based on fundamentals. The question is whether or not I will have the guts to hold long enough. I like the idea of a trailing stop at 39.00-39.50 to protect gains. If TIE falls through that I can always buy back in...
The 25-26 day SMA seems to be fairly decent support. Nice horizontal support also...
Just keep in mind that TIE is a low float stock and can swing up and down 15% or more for no apparent reason.
For those looking for an entry now is a good time (40.15) This is just above the 25 day moving average. Also this provides a good risk/reward trade as 39.00 would be a nice stop limit level.
TIE testing intraday downsloping resistance - for those daytraders out there...
It's going to be a bumpy ride ... I suggest watching TIE very closely over the next two weeks and maintaining proper trailing stop levels to protect gains - Short interest is picking up significantly! I have no clue why but it does make me worried. Something is up!
30% of the float now short!!! http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=TIE&submit=Enter
I dont see how this goes down though
1) 850 million in backlog and a strong forecast for titanium in 2006 and even beyond...
2) Recent Insider Purchases ($68.00)
This is shaping up to be either the biggest short squeezes or one of the worst cases of "news leaks" in my trading history...
Float 13,000,000
Short 3,800,000+!
min % = 29.23% (likely closer to 35% now that TIE has dropped a little recently)
Im down about -4-5% im holding in there I think we are due for a huge rebound that will send us into the 45s... Get prepared for a epic short squeeze! Buy in today at 38-39 dollars there isnt much downside pontenial anymore... Short Term target 45 dollars.
stopped out 39.66 bought back 39.00 sold again 39.45. with this fundamentals and insider purchases I want to get back in before earnings. I'm watching.. :-\
Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2006, 12:36:23 PM
I'm down about -4-5% I'm holding in there I think we are due for a huge rebound that will send us into the 45s... Get prepared for a epic short squeeze! Buy in today at 38-39 dollars there isn't much downside pontenial anymore... Short Term target 45 dollars.
TIE on the move! we are moving thru 40.00s now! Expect a strong close in the 40-42s.
From a pure technical perspective, I am a bit worried about this stock as MACD showed a negative divergence and ADX indicator is also trending down even when PPS is going up.
Currently, I don't own this stock.
Any comments?
Thanks,
mads888
Fundamentals are secure for TIE that is known. Technicals on chart are conflicting for me.
Big MACD negative divergance (weekly)
9 ema on weekly still nice support line (and has been for long time)
Sell off volume increasing
Short interest will be high because TIE has been on such a long and decent run that speculators will be betting it is time to give some of that gain back.
I stopped out today, I had a nice gain which got eroded to just a small one, coupled with the crappy market just now didn't want it going into the red.
I don't think I'll re-enter unless it breaks out above recent high area $44.50 as that is now a ceiling.
Will keep it on my watch list
I believe recent retrace was due to the interest rate/yield curve environment. Institutional holdings were forced to scale back their portfolios across the board (especially in materials sectors) because of the higher risk of decreased business spending if the trend continues. This most likely forced TIE onto the radars of shorts, who took one look at the trend and recent press, and decided to try and take it down (especially with a low float). Hard to do when many of the investors are sitting on xxx% gains...
The fact is, TIE remains unchanged fundamentally. Alll of the industry reports I have read remain very bullish on titanium prices through '06 and '07. Their earnings preview said they expected strong results, and I doubt any new costs will surface when they release the statements. Drawdowns like this are not uncommon if you check TIEs history (I have been a shareholder for awhile now).
Blue horseshoe says: "Buy TIMET" ;)
Japanes titanium stocks are up 4% so far today... Keep a watch tomorrow TIE might have a huge rebound with a short squeeze. TIE has potential to be a huge gainer tomorrow definately radar this.
TIE up over 4% :) expecting strong close we should be over 42 soon.
TIE closed flat today couldnt hold onto the gains :(, however insiders bought another 87k shares yesterday, and I expect they bought more today.
Almost stopped out again. Didn't like yesterdays trading but the whole market turned red. the rising US trade gap, jobless data, interest rates.. lots of fears and in the market.
Where do you get the insider buying information? On Yahoo I see the transactions from February.
Thanks!
Quote from: nullzero on March 09, 2006, 07:09:29 PM
TIE closed flat today couldn't hold onto the gains :(, however insiders bought another 87k shares yesterday, and I expect they bought more today.
Got it:
http://www.secform4.com/insider/showhistory.php?cik=1011657
we are up +4%.... Lets see if we can make 42s
10k deadline is March 16th. I think it will confirm their guidance, and finally let this thing start moving up again. Demand is still extremely strong.
close at HOD 41.74 (4.85%) Looking good for next week
As I said earlier this position is a great hold for 2006 - if you are willing to endure 10-15% swings on the way up.....
Glad to be back in the 40's
cal >:D
TIE is sitting around 43.30 intraday....low volume and testing resistance. Looking forward to the official 10k being released on the 26th.
In case you havent visited GFORCE heres what "eliteg" had to say about TIE.
QuoteTIE - just nice and flat up here in the price pattern.. with lots of support below and dwindling volume.. I dont think its done with its move but the market being weak might have a different view... with this low extremely low volume day and possible NR7(narrowest range in 7 days) I would like for the next high volume day's direction to be maintained.
-ELITEG
A lot of consolidation right now but I still think this could go higher short term and certainly long term...
Cal >:D
TIE is overextended at current levels. Sold ALL of my position today....Regardless of what this does I am content with over 20% gains...
For those holding I would recommend selling at 48 tomorrow. You can get back in at 44.00ish when it retests the old breakout level. TIE is a bit ahead of itself here, IMHO.
Whatever you choose to do - GL and congrats!!!!
Cal >:D
I entered TIE at $42, currently up ~12%. Calven is right, TIE is a bit overextended but IMO, TIE is a train, it will continue to run up in the longer term. Sell at highs, buy back at dips/weaknesses when it touches base. :)
TIE is just amazing... this morning it gapped up so I'm anticipating this is the "last stand" before a correction.
I sold off my TIE this morning at $48.56. (Then TIE proceeded to go up to $49 >:().
Well, I guess I won't get too greedy... ;)
And then I proceeded to short some shares at $48.67 (average price; liquidation was low so it took awhile for me to get the shares).
Wish me luck! :)
TIE got the best of me today - apparently BOEING ordered 30 more planes and TIE got their business..... the reason for the recent run
cal >:D
Well shorting didn't work. Thanks to stop loss I took a minimal slap.
What goes up must come down right?
me too on the sideline. after this run I'm not sure now if it comes down 44.00 area. but with such a low float we can hope to reenter for a nice price. :-\
watching it closely.
TIE at 52 + BOEING continues to demand titanium....
TIE up over 12% shucks I missed this run :(.... TIE is still making new highs!! China visit and increased demand for boing airplanes are driving this sucker up. TIE is on Fire! >:D
TIE up again! over 7% :o
I sell and just days after - BOEING orders more titanium for 30 new planes - I have some great luck >:(
Quote from: calven on May 09, 2006, 02:31:58 PM
I sell and just days after - BOEING orders more titanium for 30 new planes - I have some great luck >:(
I sold just 5 minutes before this new. ;D
Just got this email:
These people completely ignore the concept of valuation when looking at TIE... it's unbelievable. The stock moves up 8% because their competitor (RTI) got an order for titanium! TIE trades at 43x earnings, while other TIE producers trade at 20x, and industry trades at 26x... TIE would need an order four times as big as their competitors order, and then somehow fill it with their non-existant titanium reserves in order to make the 150% gains necessary to justify their current valuation.
I love buffet's quote:
"I don't think there's a bubble in agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans. But in metals and oil there's been a terrific [price] move. It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, then the speculation becomes dominant. Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice"
Tie is moving down just as fast as it moved up but as it gets close to it's 50 d ma which is around 29 I get the feeling that it will find support b/w 29 and 30.Something to keep an eye on
TIE BREAKOUT
This is starting to look nice :o
According to THE WSJ, mean est. v. year-ago reported earnings for the Q ending 9/06: 55% increase forecasted. (Year-ago: $ .87 vs est. for this Q: $1.35.)
Always do your own dd.
indeed it is ;)
TIE broke through $30 today on solid volume - nice long candle, closed near the HOD and showing real strength. Next stop $34-35 range.
TIE broke through key $33.80-$34 resistance today and is pushing at $35 resistance as I speak (but boy is there a lot sitting on the ask right there!) Getting above $35 would signal a major long term breakout. Its been on a real rip the last few sessions, and as always I'm late to the party, but I think that TIE looks pretty good for some short term gains. I expect continuation above $35 tomorrow.
Implied target for the channel breakout is ~$40 (depth of channel = 34-28 = 6. B.O at 34+6 = 40). This is also close to where it topped on its snap-back rally in late May so more reason for it to get there.
I lost a bundle on TIE in 2006 by buying high and selling low, then shorting and covering higher. Actually was my biggest loser. But I'm long again since $29.09 which was near the bottom of the channel and have recovered about 2/3 of my '06 loss (on paper). Let's ROLL TI(d)E!
TIE has had a little pullback, tested 33.80-90 support and looks ready to make a move higher. Think we should see it above $35 next week. Go TIE!!!
Quote from: Lucas Scott on February 07, 2007, 03:43:20 AM
Let's ROLL TI(d)E!
Luke,
Someone must be off sides on these Rectangle breakouts. This is the third time that TIE has broken out of a Rectangle, and the third time that it's been called back.
Interesting fractal (repeating pattern, and repeating behavior).
After the October Rectangle broke out, it got called back, and TIE went into another little Rectangle (circled in blue) at the 50/200s.
That broke out in late November and got to the October high, then got called back, all the way to the low of the "little" Rectangle (circled in blue). That established the parameters of the Rectangle in your chart (purple on this chart).
This third Rectangle broke out, as you mentioned....but, called back
again!Someone
clearly is jumping off sides on these breakouts. :D
If TIE continues to pull back here, a gap fill of 30.88 - 31.25, with the 50DMA right there, looks very tempting.
>:D >:D
Good luck this time. You've got a real nice entry, and you sure deserve to have a winner, after staying with it. Thanks for the post on it. Applause.
TIE like many stocks last week rallied back to resistance at $36 but got stalled out there, putting in a doji candle on Friday. Again, it looks like this move has run out of steam with significant resistance at $36. If the market heads lower next week, it will most likely take TIE with it. The chart also looks like TIE could be putting in the right shoulder of a H&S top. The 30 minute chart below shows the H&S pattern more clearly.
I think TIE at this level makes a nice short setup. With a stop just above $36, the risk as of Friday's close is just 1.3%, while the reward potential of a breakdown here should be at least 10% on a move back to $32 resistance, if not more if the H&S pattern follows through.
Another thing to note with TIE is that VHI is set to distribute 56 million shares of TIE stock on March 30th in a special dividend, which is 1/3 of the current total outstanding shares. Once this distribution is completed, it could well add more selling pressure to the stock as VHI holders lock in gains from this special dividend. This is also going to add significantly more liquidity to the stock, as shares that have been effectively locked up become openly tradable in the market.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070228/nyw164.html?.v=69 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070228/nyw164.html?.v=69)
TIE has been absolutely ripping the last few dys after reporting streong earnings this week and on takeover speculation by ATI:
QuoteRidgeland, MS, MAY 11, 2007 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- The DJ Steel index is up 1.1%, but investors are really taking a shine to titanium. Titanium Metals (TIE +7.7%) is soaring for the second session in three on renewed speculation that the company is a takeover target. On Wednesday, Knobias reported on street talk that suggested Allegheny Technologies (ATI +2.4%) would pay $58/share or more for TIE. TIE's chairman, Harold C. Simmons, is one of the biggest insider stock buyers on Wall Street. He owns 51.8% (direct and indirect) TIE shares. Harold Simmons is 75 years old.On Monday, TIE reported a Q1 EPS of 41c vs. 32c, 3c above expectations. Other titanium metal products names include RTI International (RTI +2.4%) and Carpenter Technology (CRS +2.6%).
$58/sh would be a very nice premium on the current share price, and I think we could see TIE break $40 resistance early next week. The stock is clearly super bullish, with two huge volume up days. I am most certianly along for the ride...
Technically, the 1 year chart shows the nice rising channel that TIE has been riding since pulling back from the huge run in 2006. The top of the channel currently stands at $42, so we may see some resistance there, but if speculation really mounts, TIE could also just rip through there. The short term chart shows the symmetrical riangle and breakout on volume, with a nice retest of the breakout on Thursday, and strong continuation Friday. All things point north here....
chart update