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Public 3SOF Boards => Previous 3SOF Picks => Topic started by: David Randolph on June 03, 2005, 09:23:37 AM

Title: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on June 03, 2005, 09:23:37 AM
Openwave Systems Incorporated (OPWV). The Group's principal activity is to provide open standards software products and services to mobile and wireline carriers, Internet service providers, broadband providers and handset manufactures.

I've picked this stock from our «Story Behind the Move» board, the author was chakkar (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=profile;u=743). Please read his post (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=390.0).

The long term chart looks like this:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=570;image)

And the medium term is this:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=571;image)

I believe OPWV is going to blow of this top. Momentum has picked up, volume is increasing and the fundamentals and prospects are attractive.

chakkar made great comments on the stock but is expecting for a pullback to buy, a pullback that never comes ... when a man wants to buy a stock but he can't that's because a lot of men and women are competing with him to buy.

I have a way to solve chakkar's dilemma. You close your eyes and buy. Buy it now.


Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 102% since May 2005. If you want to join our community and receive our free newsletter, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
Title: Bought @ $16.80
Post by: David Randolph on June 03, 2005, 09:46:41 AM
OPWV
Title: Re: OPWV to breakout
Post by: David Randolph on June 05, 2005, 12:05:21 PM
When OPWV definitely breaks the $17 level as I think it will (because of the bullish triangle formation which shows higher lows and equal highs, suggesting accumulation) it will turn out to have a technical price target of $29 a share. It is worth waiting a bit.
Title: Re: OPWV to breakout
Post by: David Randolph on June 07, 2005, 04:33:38 AM
Consolidation with lower volume and small candles suggests another long white marubozu is coming, projecting OPWV to new highs.
Title: Re: OPWV to breakout
Post by: David Randolph on June 07, 2005, 05:43:45 PM
Not much info from today's session on OPWV. Made a new intraday high but couldn't keep it because the general market faltered. I'll hold.
Title: Re: OPWV to breakout
Post by: David Randolph on June 09, 2005, 06:26:18 AM
Didn't breakout. Red marubozu yesterday. I have to sell OPWV today at the open.
Title: Re: OPWV to breakout
Post by: RichL74 on June 09, 2005, 09:00:37 AM
I agree David. The 50 day EMA crossed over the current value of OPWV and the MACD trend is sliding near the horizon.
Title: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on June 23, 2005, 09:13:43 AM
We can make many kinds of mistakes when we sell a stock, but there are two that are much common. The first is not to sell at a small loss and leave a large chunk of the portfolio in the stock. The other is buying with sound motives but get bored and sell just before the stock shots up. Both mistakes should be corrected.

That's what I'm doing today with OPWV. I have to buy back the stock, at a higher price, because it finally broke out a 2 year resistance level, which is now support. What I've learned from this experience is that when a stock strikes at a resistance level when it is already overextended it will probably fall back a little, building a base for the big push.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1248;image)

So I'm buying OPWV today at the open, relying that resistance at $17.70 will become a made of steel support in the future.

Everyday I will analyze OPWV after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.

Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 133% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php). We have great traders in our community which take advantage of short term opportunities in stocks.

If you want to join our community and receive our free newsletter, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: basanlas on June 23, 2005, 05:01:58 PM
David,

Did you buy OPWV?

I don't see an update here or on the open trades column on the home page.

basanlas
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: rocket8 on June 24, 2005, 11:45:18 AM
ouch!
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: OhadOnFire on June 24, 2005, 01:25:28 PM
Hi David,

Could you please reply if you bought this stock or not?
...and if you didnot - why?

Thanks,
Ohad
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: stocky on June 24, 2005, 01:32:03 PM
Portfolio, it seems is not updated. OPWV not shown most probably.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: OhadOnFire on June 24, 2005, 01:38:26 PM
But there are no replies from David if he keeps it or sells...
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Pete on June 24, 2005, 01:56:56 PM
Stocky is right. Portfolio is not correct. David said he was buying so I guess he bought it otherwise he would mentioned it. I bought it at 17.70

Anyway, I am getting butchered here :(  None of the stock in my portfolio is in green. Back in red..... big time now. 
P
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: rocket8 on June 24, 2005, 02:07:27 PM
i bought OPWV at $17.49.
it did drop a lot but not below SMA 9.
i will hold till the end of the day to see what dave says.
i already sold DNDN according to dave's guidance on it.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Adam on June 24, 2005, 02:18:19 PM
Not enough updates on open positions with stuff falling fast.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on June 27, 2005, 07:12:50 AM
OPWV was not very nice to those who bought that breakout with volume like I did. But there's no mistake, the trend is bullish on this stock. So I will hold on to the stock as long as the trend remains bullish.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on June 27, 2005, 05:14:08 PM
OPWV had a different kind of breakout when compared to DHB, that's why I'm keeping OPWV and selling DHB. Here's why:

OPWV has an ascending trend. The breakout was just for the uptrend to accelerate. But as we see now, the stock, or the market, weren't ready yet.

DHB
was trying to reverse a bearish trend. Being unable to do that a trader stands with nothing, he can't hold on to the breakout because it doesn't exist anymore, and he can't hold on to the trend because the trend is bearish !

See the difference?

I'm keeping OPWV in the 3SF portfolio as long as the stock closes within this upward channel:
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on June 29, 2005, 04:24:19 AM
OPWV rose 3.5% yesterday as it should, given the uptrend that's in place. I wonder if the stock won't need a bit more consolidation before it breaks this $17 - $18 area. I have a plan to trade this stock, and the plan is: hold as long as the stock closes above the lower uptrend on the chart.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on June 29, 2005, 05:08:06 PM
No surprises in OPWV, the stock indeed needed more consolidation. The truth will come tomorrow when the stock faces it's ascending trendline at $16.17. Did we have a false breakout? Or the stock is just consolidating to the uptrend line before it shoots to the upside?

I don't know the answer. The only thing I know is that trends usually persist, that is, the probability is always higher for the trend to continue than to reverse. As a trader I must play on probabilities (although as a human being I sometimes make the mistake of going against probabilities - you people learn from my mistakes as from my successes).

So, only OPWV knows her future, my decision to hold or sell is totally in her hands. Close>$16.17 = Hold. Close<$16.17 = Sell.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: rocket8 on July 01, 2005, 01:37:01 AM
on the yahoo board they are saying a triple bottom is in place the last 5 days (including last friday)

do u agree?

Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Melf Elf on July 01, 2005, 06:36:30 AM
Quote from: Rocket8 on July 01, 2005, 01:37:01 AM
on the yahoo board they are saying a triple bottom is in place the last 5 days (including last friday)

do u agree?


I'd say that it's important for the stock to hold the 16.25-16.26 area because OPWV is showing signs of technical weakness:

The June 22 breakout above 17.17 ended in a 3-day Bearish Evening Doji Star Pattern that closed well below the 17.17 breakout on the third day. 

An Evening Doji Star Pattern is a major top reversal pattern formed by three candlesticks, and is considered to be more bearish than the regular Evening Star reversal, because of the doji star.

The first candlestick of the pattern is a tall white real body (June 22 breakout).  The second day, in this case, is the doji star.  It makes a "higher high" than the white candle, but closes unchanged, or near unchanged.  The third day is a black candle that closes well within the first sessions real body.  In this case, it closed below 63% of the big white candle.

As with all patterns, you need confirmation of the bullishness or bearishness in the following days from the candles and the technicals.

The day after the Bearish Evening Doji Star, MACD went back below its signal line, after making a lower high than the high it made it early June.  That's called a negative divergence, and  a non-confirmation of the new high made in the stock.

When OPWV rallied on June 28, MACD went back slightly above the signal line.  At that point, it needed to keep going higher, or it would slip back below the signal line once again.  A "refusal" at the signal line, so to speak.  June 29, all of the prior day's gains were given back, and MACD fell back below the signal line.

It's important that the lows that you mentioned hold because there's confirmation in both the price action of the stock and in the technicals, that the Bearish Evening Doji Star pattern really is bearish.

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120211533190?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:OPWV&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409



Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 01, 2005, 06:39:58 AM
OPWV tried to come back, but the general market didn't let it. Anyway the candlesticks weren't set for a rebound yet. Today the uptrendline will be at $16.27. I don't want to see OPWV closing below this trendline.

Quote from: Rocket8 on July 01, 2005, 01:37:01 AM
on the yahoo board they are saying a triple bottom is in place the last 5 days (including last Friday)

do u agree?

I don't believe in chart patterns coming out of intraday data. I've day traded futures for some years and after a while I stopped using traditional technical analysis on my day trading.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Melf Elf on July 01, 2005, 12:31:30 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 01, 2005, 06:36:30 AM
[I'd say that it's important for the stock to hold the 16.25-16.26 area because OPWV is showing signs of technical weakness:
The June 22 breakout above 17.17 ended in a 3-day Bearish Evening Doji Star Pattern that closed well below the 17.17 breakout on the third day. 

An Evening Doji Star Pattern is a major top reversal pattern formed by three candlesticks, and is considered to be more bearish than the regular Evening Star reversal, because of the doji star.

OPWV currently is 16.22 BID...16.23 ASK.  Short-term support is broken.

QuoteIt's important that the lows that you mentioned hold because there's confirmation in both the price action of the stock and in the technicals, that the Bearish Evening Doji Star pattern really is bearish.

Today's price action is additional confirmation.  I like David's stop, technically. 

Hourly Chart:

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120234327424?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:OPWV&Interval=60&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 03, 2005, 05:01:39 PM
I consider myself as a disciplined trader, but I'm not a machine. Humans have many disadvantages against machines in trading, but they have some advantages ... you see, I had set a stop loss rule for OPWV which consisted on selling after a close below the blue ascending trendline.

But, since support and resistance levels are a memory phenomena, I believe, and experience shows, that horizontal support and resistance levels show more relevancy than oblique lines.

I see a short term support in the $15.97-$16 level. So I'll give a bit more room for OPWV to alaborate and sell only if the stock closes below $15.97. I'm a bit tired of selling stocks with strong technicals just before they rally (as happened recently with RHAT).
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 06, 2005, 04:19:51 AM
Technical analysis is not mathematics, so I'll probably have to adjust my trendline to that minor break that occurred on Friday.

OPWV still shows a bullish trend, I'll hold the stock.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 08, 2005, 04:10:46 AM
It's real, I had to adjust my trendline on OPWV. The market action yesterday was encouraging, we've had a white candle on higher volume. Now I want to see the stock close above $17.17 to take away the possibility of an head and shoulders pattern.

If we get that close above $17.17, just looking at the chart and take as a given that there won't be any unexpected fundamental developments, we have a pretty good chance of making a new short term high, above $18.18.

Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Se7en on July 08, 2005, 12:26:54 PM
Hi, I'm new to this site and i'm long on OPWV since Sep 04(average of 9.66$).
I never traded it but i now regret it because i missed some great opportunities, I'm willing to change my 'strategy' and the information i find here looks perfect to help me with this.
Keep up the good work guys! :)

p.s. OPWV looking good today, currently at 17.55$, curious what you further predictions are ...
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 11, 2005, 05:08:16 AM
It was wise to give some time to OPWV to work this breakout zone. The stock rose 3.5% on Friday and the uptrending channel upper limit is just at $19.21 for today.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 12, 2005, 06:49:06 AM
It's really paying of to have some patience with OPWV. After all, the stock was set to breakout higher, but it had a pullback on profit taking.

At this moment there's no doubt the breakout above the $17.71 long term resistance was made and this formation gives me a potential rise to somewhere around $30  :o
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Se7en on July 12, 2005, 08:11:23 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on July 12, 2005, 06:49:06 AM
It's really paying of to have some patience with OPWV. After all, the stock was set to breakout higher, but it had a pullback on profit taking.

At this moment there's no doubt the breakout above the $17.71 long term resistance was made and this formation gives me a potential rise to somewhere around $30  :o

30$??? :o

Will she keep running for a few days or will there again be some profit taking?
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 12, 2005, 08:15:30 AM
It is impossible to know if a stock will move up on a straight line after a breakout or if it will pullback. You know the trend, you know the technical target of the breakout and that's all it is possible to know.

Thank you for your post, have a nice day  :)
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 13, 2005, 06:06:59 AM
OPWV traded for the second day above the all important $17.71 resistance, now support. I'm holding this stock for the medium term, the technical target of the breakout is somewhere around $30, which is nothing special, just a 61% rise from current levels.

Sometimes I get amazed by how people think in dollar changes instead of percentage changes.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Se7en on July 13, 2005, 12:44:30 PM
This hopefully will help us stay positive today ...

Telefonica Moviles Espana Selects Openwave Messaging Suite to Offer Consumer and Corporate Customers a Single Inbox for All Messaging Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050713/sfw070.html?.v=17


From Raymond James (7/11)
Reit Strong Buy 1   
Openwave has the right products in the right market at the right time. The company is also poised to drive revenue growth to the bottom line, in our opinion, given facilities and R&D initiatives.   
http://www.jagnotes.com/veritysearch_results_jagnotes.cfm?id=0E8EFE7F-3DA3-471E-B88580ACE3E3D599

Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 14, 2005, 06:34:36 AM
Se7en already brought us this news on OPWV: Telefonica Moviles Espana Selects Openwave Messaging Suite to Offer Consumer and Corporate Customers a Single Inbox for All Messaging Services (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1581335&guid=%7B8A93F95B%2DE955%2D4E94%2D993E%2D736822A99FF3%7D&symb=)

Technically OPWV has a lot of support underneath current levels so probably it is just a matter of time before the stock makes another white marubozu to new highs.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Se7en on July 14, 2005, 05:20:45 PM
OPWV looked very strong today, also good volume! :)

Any comments on this, was posted on the yahoo board:
Triple Top Breakout from 2 days ago is holding. They've been trying to sell us off, but can't even manage a buck. We are going to new highs very soon.

You can see the nice cup from 3 years ago with blow-off bottom in October 02. Since then, we have just been forming a handle which has been forming for over 2 years. And the longer the handle (bases), the bigger the breakout.


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=OPWV,uu[w,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!e5][vc60][iUg!Lb14]&pref=G

Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 15, 2005, 04:02:25 AM
I generally agree with those comments.

Considering OPWV, the stock has a lot of underneath support now and the line of least resistance is up.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 16, 2005, 02:47:07 PM
OPWV is consolidating for 4 days now. $18.18 is supporting the stock. The trend is bullish and it will continue with more strength after this consolidation phase. This is no micro cap, OPWV has more than a billion dollars in market cap, so it moves slowly.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 19, 2005, 07:00:00 AM
OPWV has been resilient and it is getting ready to push higher. Medium term price target around $30.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 20, 2005, 06:59:30 AM
Another new 3 year high on OPWV. Let the profits run ...
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 21, 2005, 05:21:53 AM
Another day, another rise for OPWV. Volume is picking up ...
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Pete on July 21, 2005, 10:46:53 AM
Gosh, What happened. I got stopped out at 17.97. I never thought it will loose so much when the going was good. At least still  I made a few bucks  ;D
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: fctrade on July 21, 2005, 12:44:33 PM
your stop is too conservative. If OPWV back up above 18.8 today, it's whole new ball game. Right now, most of stops are out with lots of short still uncovered(maybe), this allows OPWV run even fast. Still looking 20 before cc.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Pete on July 21, 2005, 02:50:03 PM
fctrade,

Lucky me (I hope),  I am back in at lower 17.90. My stop was lower than a dollar and I did not see any reason why it would go down, specially when it was having such a good run. My problem is I get stopped out too frequently  >:( I normally put 20% for BB'a and 7-10% for others.

If I keep it too low, I become a bag holder like in the cases of blyc, epyh and aret.

How do you manage your stops? Any insight is appreciated.
TIA
P

Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 22, 2005, 05:05:45 AM
So many days to work OPWV higher and then it comes a severe down day to blow it all off. Well, nothing unnatural in this market behavior, it is what it is, there's no point in arguing with it.

We've had these news yesterday: Openwave Announces Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2005 Conference Call (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1581335&guid=%7B2BAE9141%2D3FC1%2D4F74%2D8305%2DB1AF60FF8897%7D&symb=)

Results will be out on August 4th.

QuoteHow do you manage your stops? Any insight is appreciated.

Well, I almost never place a stop order in the market. It looks they act like a magnet to the stock price  ::)

Nothing happening in the intraday can make me change the opinion I made with the market closed. Money management and appropriate diversification makes me prepared even for a stock I hold to be delisted overnight (that would mean in the worst case scenario a 6.66% loss of total capital).

For a man to buy a stock he should have a reason. He should take a loss when that reason no longer has validity. Let me tell you what I do:

1) I buy for a reason, be it technical or fundamental
2) I design a technical trading plan, so the market must agree with my reasoning for me to keep holding the stock
3) I follow that trading plan

So, there's no hard rule to place a stop, it must be linked to a trading plan ...

Let's take OPWV, for example. I bought because the medium term trend was up and a potential ascending triangle formation breakout was in the making. The breakout and it's technical target is my hope for profits. The trend must continue to be up for me to keep hoping. If the trend ceases to be up my reason for buying no longer exists and I must take the loss, that's the normal risk of this business.

Taking these small losses only makes you stronger and available for the next speculative venture and profits. It's when a man doesn't take his loss when he should that things get tricky, one gets lost and probably needs to start it all over again.

Discipline is a lot more important than a profit in any given position.

Coming back to OPWV, as you can see in the chart below, the stock is still in an uptrend, given by that ascending trendline. My plan is to hold the stock as long as it closes above that ascending trendline, which today will be at $17.28.

Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: fctrade on July 22, 2005, 08:59:48 AM
Frankly, I only placed stop once back to 03 and got out of it. To OPWV, it's hard for me to timing it, so I hold my core positions and trade few follow the trend trading indicator. Mostly I relies on ADX associate with RSI.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Pete on July 22, 2005, 09:11:47 AM
Thanks David for the tip. May be I shouldn't worry too much about a stock getting delisted because I pretty much buy what you buy. Aslo over 90% of the time when I got stopped out , the stock goes  right back up and I end up a looser 90% of the time.  TIme to follow your strategy  ;D

Thanks for the advice.
P
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 25, 2005, 04:21:55 AM
Thanks for your feedback, fctrade and Pete  :)

OPWV
is on a moderate uptrend, no reason to sell here, every reason to hold.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 26, 2005, 06:21:38 AM
Patience isn't paying on OPWV. A man wants to be a bit more conservative in his picks and this is what he gets? Well, the market is always right and there's no point in arguing with the tape.

My profit in OPWV turned into a small loss and I'm losing patience, my money doesn't belong to stocks that don't rise !

Just one more chance, if OPWV is set to close below $17.5 I'll sell it today at the close.

Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: MPDT on July 26, 2005, 08:26:20 AM
Dave, I appreciate your daily take on your positions. Excellent work.
Please don't take this the wrong way but I have question that may sound ridiculous but I only ask it because of other comments you have made.
Are you a full time trader? By that I mean are trading the markets during the entire market day  5 days per week?
Please don't take any offense, but you have mentioned that you also run a business and a few other things that brings that question to my mind.
thx.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 26, 2005, 08:48:41 AM
No offense taken MPDT, you're welcome  :D

Actually, I'm going to have lunch now before the open, make my transactions at the open and then I have to run to my small business, my secretary already called twice and I'm needed there. I'll be back only near to the close of the session.

I don't watch the intraday, I do all my work with the markets closed.

Have a nice and safe day trading the markets MPDT, and thanks for your kind words  :)
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 27, 2005, 05:18:40 AM
OPWV showed some respect after all, but with this anemic volume I don't know, I sense a loss coming.

Anyway, I don't trade on feelings but on a sound trading plan, so I'll keep the stock as long as it is set to close above the ascending trendline. That trendline today will stand at $17.52.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 28, 2005, 04:45:41 AM
After all OPWV is rebounding nicely from this visit to support levels. Cool  :) So I'll continue to hold OPWV for the foreseeable future (that is, as long as it closes above the ascending trendline, today at $17.63).

Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on July 29, 2005, 09:13:22 AM
OPWV is still trading on its uptrend channel. The lower ascending trendline today will stand at $17.72, I don't want to see OPWV closing below that level !
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Se7en on July 29, 2005, 10:00:00 AM
Remember, earnings at Thursday, August 4, 2005 at 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT!
OPWV beated estimates the past 8 or more earnings, the sector/competitors are doing well, hopefully OPWV also! :)
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050721/sfth092.html?.v=15
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on August 01, 2005, 08:09:52 AM
Thanks for your input Se7en  :)

Nice rally on OPWV at Friday's session, 2.6% on a white candle with stronger volume. The trend is still bullish so I still hold the stock.

Results will be out on Thursday and as Se7en said «OPWV beat estimates the past 8 or more earnings, the sector/competitors are doing well».

Enough reasons, both technical and fundamental, to keep holding OPWV.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on August 01, 2005, 07:12:18 PM
Another low volume pullback on OPWV. This stock has an uptrend, no doubt about that, but no doubt too it doesn't rise, it doesn't show me a profit on my position.

I could think a lot about this, lose patience, whatever, but I have my simple technical trading plan that keeps me on board as long as there is the perspective, given by the trend, of a bullish move.

So my business is to continue holding OPWV.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on August 03, 2005, 03:52:02 AM
OPWV will release results tomorrow after the close. Yesterday we've had an upgrade (Openwave Systems price target upped to $23 by Wedbush - MarketWatch.com) which is a good thing, maybe these analysts know results will come out above expectations.

The trading plan will be respected, nevermind the news. The market will tell me what to do, since I'm not smart enough to figure out if news is good, bad, if it was already discounted, whatever.

For today my ascending support will be at $17.97, a close below this level will trigger a sell on close order.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on August 04, 2005, 06:27:19 AM
I believe results were out yesterday, but I can't find them anywhere? Someone has the OPWV's results?

Anyway, the stock closed up 1.63% on after hours.

Perhaps earnings will be the catalyst for the expected rise on OPWV. I'll continue long OPWV if it continues to close above its ascending trendline.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Se7en on August 04, 2005, 06:35:41 AM
Results are not out yet, results + CC are after the close! :)
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Se7en on August 04, 2005, 04:51:41 PM
Openwave Reports Fourth Quarter Financial Results
Thursday August 4, 4:16 pm ET
Largest Bookings Quarter in Company History
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050804/sfth069.html?.v=21
REDWOOD CITY, Calif., Aug. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Openwave Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: OPWV - News), the leading provider of open software products and services for the communications industry, today announced that revenues for its fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2005 were $100.3 million, an increase of $23.5 million, or 31%, from $76.8 million during the June quarter in the preceding year. Openwave posted bookings of $130.4 million, the highest level in the company's history.


"Our momentum continues to accelerate as we delivered our largest bookings quarter ever, bolstered our cash position, and added new customers across the world," said David Peterschmidt, president and CEO of Openwave. "In the next quarter, Openwave will power over a trillion messaging transactions as we capitalize on our unique product assets to take advantage of the major trends in the telecommunications industry."

Including $64.6 million in restructuring charges, net loss for the fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2005 on a GAAP basis was $62.3 million, or $0.91 per share, compared to a net loss of $0.7 million, or $0.01 per share, for the June quarter in the preceding year. Net income on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes amortization of intangibles and acquisition-related stock-based compensation, and restructuring and related costs, for the fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2005 was $4.8 million, or $0.07 per diluted share. A reconciliation between net income (loss) on a GAAP basis and a non-GAAP basis is provided below in a table immediately following the Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations.

At June 30, 2005, the Company had cash, cash equivalents, short-term and long-term investments totaling $286.8 million, of which $24.3 million is set aside as restricted cash. Net cash generated from operating activities during the three months ended June 30, 2005 was $9.1 million, which included $3.0 million of cash used for restructuring liabilities.




SmarTone-Vodafone Selects Openwave to Deliver Next Generation IP Voicemail and Video Voicemail to Subscribers
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050804/sfth063.html?.v=23




Form 8-K for OPENWAVE SYSTEMS INC
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/050804/opwv8-k.html
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: dugdogg on August 04, 2005, 08:55:16 PM
OPWV down pretty big AH.


not good earnings
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: fctrade on August 04, 2005, 11:27:24 PM
First thought, not good. Listen the cc, noticed that there was a 3.2mm liscense revenue deal puched back to this Q(packaged with 7 softwares). If you put this back in, OPWV will beat the .08 expectation. You should also looking forward about its bookings and backlogs which was really strong indicator for future revenue stream.

Fundamentally, not things change and is getting stronger. Technically, hard to say and depands on MM tomorrow. BTW, the 250,000 shares changed hand AH mean nothing.

Good luck tomorrow, long or short.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on August 05, 2005, 05:07:13 AM
Results were out, and they were not good, at least taking into account the market action on after hours trading.

I hold this stock for about a month and a half now, and it failed to perform. Today I'm in risk of seeing a profit turn into a loss (RULE 4: Never let a profit turn into a loss (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2030.0)).

The stock will probably break the ascending trendline at the open. Then I have an important support coming in at $17.75, if that fails to halt the decline expect a medium term decline on OPWV, possibly taking it back down to $12 or so.

Considering this I will sell OPWV at today's open.

Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: David Randolph on August 06, 2005, 12:07:04 PM
As said, I've sold OPWV at Friday's open, price $17.55.

You can see all holdings and closed trades at the link on the lateral menu where it says «3 Stocks on Fire (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php)»

I'm afraid OPWV enters into a decline phase, the chart certainly points to that, we've had a false bullish breakout, and that's very bearish short term.
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: Se7en on August 14, 2005, 04:32:21 PM
Right before earnings, I sold 300 shares at 18.52$.
In the mean while OPWV dropped back to the mid 16's but I still have 363 shares.  :(

I need some TA, is it still in a bearish trend or should i hold them and hope for a bounce or better sell them now??! ???
TIA!
Title: Re: Another recall: OPWV
Post by: fctrade on August 17, 2005, 12:43:04 PM
OPWV break through 17.5 today is very good sign technically, my trend trading indicator show it may start a new uptrend.
Title: Re: OPWV to breakout
Post by: setravis on October 20, 2007, 07:03:48 PM
The "OPWV" Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.

I will leave you Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread....... 

Good trading to all !   

Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis
Title: Re: OPWV to breakout
Post by: setravis on October 20, 2007, 07:09:30 PM
Updated view.......

Down she went.
The 3 year chart shows it all !


52wk Range: 4.15 - 10.58
Volume: 1,463,526
Avg Vol (3m): 1,676,270

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-3.80%below 13-day MA
-5.89%below 50-day MA
RS Rating: 9 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $381.42 
P/E Ratio: 176.36 
PEG Ratio: -1.19444 
Next Earnings: 10/25/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Hold