Has anyone looked at DIET? It only has a market cap of 135 million. It reached profitability in quarter 3 ending SEPT 05.
FROM MOTLEY FOOL:
Well, it is also a good business for eDiets.com. In the third quarter, revenues increased 14% to $13.5 million. During this period, net income was $2.1 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, which was up from a loss of $1.4 million, or $0.07 per share, for the same period last year.
What makes eDiets.com different? The company wants to position itself as the authority on dieting. For example, it has enhanced its content (such as from the HarvardHealth e-newsletter and Psychology Today). What's more, it offers a wide array of diet plans, such as the Glycemic Impact Diet, the New Mediterranean Diet, Atkins, Trim Kids,
Only had 3 days but sold some as it crossed 7 today but will buy back - could this be another NTRI - that of course is the hope but need to see some earnings
(http://xs62.xs.to/pics/06015/diet050106.jpg)
http://tinyurl.com/9n946
«Ediets.Com, Inc. (DIET). The Group's principal activities are to provide online services, information and products related to nutrition, fitness and motivation.»
This "internet" company is a growth story that just turned profitable. Fundamentals improved year after year and quarter after quarter. Over the last two quarters the company delivered net profits which tells me their business model is working.
Market cap is just $149.87M. The chart is very bullish as you can see below.
I'll buy DIET around today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% of capital as always.
Good pick Dave. I have been in since under $6 and hope it repeats what NTRI did last year:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NTRI&t=1y
NTRI's 10x rise was due to the initiation of the fresh food delivery program. DIET just started this program a few days ago and is supposed to target a different customer base.
Obviously, Opara's association helps as well:
http://www.dietprogramreviews.com/oprah.htm?SID=oprah
Pre-Market (8.50 am): $7.56...........up 0.66 (9.57%)
:o
1. Profile
Ediets.Com, Inc. (DIET). The Group's principal activities are to provide online services, information and products related to nutrition, fitness and motivation. The eDiets program includes customized meal plans and workout schedules and related tools such as shopping lists, journals and weight and exercise tracking. The Group also provides interactive online support and education presented by experts including psychologists, licensed mental health counselors, registered dietitians, certified fitness trainers, a spiritual advisor and an M.D. It has obtained exclusive licenses to offer the Atkins Nutritional ApproachTM, ZonePerfect Nutrition, Shape Up! inspired by Dr. Phil McGraw's book, The Ultimate Weight Solution, the Perricone Nutritional Face LiftTM and the Slim.Fast(R) personalized online program.
2. Technical Analysis
2.1. Long Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13086;image)
We can see on the long term chart that the all time high for DIET is in reach. The long term trend is bullish.
2.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13087;image)
We have volume above average and the next strong resistance will only come in at $9.55. I wonder if the number of shares outstanding is the same now as it was when the stock last touched $9.55.
2.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13088;image)
The stock suffered some profit taking during today's session but nothing to worry about, I believe. The trend is up and the trend is my friend.
3. Fundamental Analysis
3.1. Number of Shares Outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13089;image)
This graph can be misleading, the company is selling shares in the open market at a very moderate pace, about 87,500 shares a quarter, on average. So I'm not worried about EPS dilution.
But, just for curiosity, when the stock last touched $9.55 it had just about 10 million shares outstanding, so when it goes there again, and I believe it will and even surpass that level, it will be more than double in market cap. Just to reflect on the significance of stock prices without considering the number of shares outstanding.
3.2. Working Capital
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13090;image)
Well, I've seen better Current Ratio's than this ... it is below the 2 threshold. But at least it is stable.
3.3. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13091;image)
You can call this stable and strong year over year revenue growth. Revenues were up every single year since inception and there's no reason to believe this won't continue.
Another curiosity: fundamentals are much better now than in early 2004. Yet, the stock price is lower. But, and this is a very important «but», the market cap is larger now ! This goes to show the importance of the number of shares outstanding and its evolution. I'm glad the company is starting to slowdown on its open market sales.
3.4. Net Income
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13092;image)
You can see a very unstable picture on net income history for DIET, despite of the relatively stable revenue growth. I don't know why this happens, yet. But, as you can see, the last quarter was the best on the company's history. Is this a new trend for net income and earnings per share, or will the company go back to losses again?
I bet this is a new trend, and the stock price chart tells me the market agrees with this assessment. If suddenly DIET starts making profits quarter after quarter and grows those profits there's no telling to how high the stock can go.
4. General Overview
I still have to study the information valueseeker provided, but it seems to be very positive. Thanks :)
Overall I see DIET as a stock with great potential and also some risks ... the balance sheet isn't very strong, probably because the company had so many losing money quarters. But revenue growth is impressive and the revenue multiple is still less than 3.
I think it all depends on the next quarter. If it shows, again, revenue growth and net profits, without dilution, the stock price will jump a lot further. If the company disappoints and turns in another negative net income quarter, without a very valid reason, the stock will tank.
I'm willing to bet on the bullish case, since weight loss is a major and growing concern of our days ... and internet related communities are growing much faster than others.
5. Trading Plan
HOLD the stock for now, study it more deeply. I would like to hold it for the long term, but I'm not ready yet to make that statement.
I've got 1500 shares of Diet. Anyone else have any. What do you think of future share price prospects?
WHOOPs.. Sorry - I didn't realize it was put on the StocksOnFire picks today. I've been following this one since $6
I ment to post the update yesterday but since there was a problem with the 3SOF web site I couldn't do it. Anyway today's action has proven my point of view so far ;).
eDiets.com (DIET) is clearly in bullish uptrend. But I would like to point that yesterday's white candlestick, together with the last two, formed Bearish Deliberation Pattern - bearish reversal pattern that marks a potential change in trend. However, its reliability is not very high and it requires confirmation (http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs68.asp).
Considering that, together with the new 52 week's high today and RSI in overbought territory we could see some profit taking over the next few days.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13110)
Anyways $6.40 - $6.55 range is a good entry if there is a pullback.
Good luck to all.
DIET gave some guidance for the 4th quarter on their 3rd quarter results:
«The company expects to generate earnings in the range of $0.04 to $0.06 per diluted share in fiscal 2005 compared to a loss of $(0.50) per share in 2004. The company forecasts revenue for 2005 of $53 to $54 million, up 17 to 19% compared to last year.»
This means EPS for the 4th quarter is expected to come in between $0.05 and $0.07, so we'll probably have the third consecutive quarterly profit. Revenues are expected at $12M, a slight decline from the 3th quarter level.
I wonder if management wasn't overly cautious here, so it can surprise the Street on the upside.
Quote from: valueseeker on January 09, 2006, 08:27:19 AM
NTRI's 10x rise was due to the initiation of the fresh food delivery program. DIET just started this program a few days ago and is supposed to target a different customer base.
Obviously, Opara's association helps as well:
http://www.dietprogramreviews.com/oprah.htm?SID=oprah
Now I see what you mean by «food delivery program», it completely amazes me the kind of services available in the US :o :
http://www.ediets.com/store/ (http://www.ediets.com/store/)
Fresh Cuisine (http://www.ediets.com/freshcuisine/)
So, DIET isn't just a website anymore, it is a nationwide restaurant too !
I think DIET is ready to walk on NTRI's footsteps.
I'll continue to hold DIET here, just one more update before I can call it a long term 3 Stocks on Fire holding like GIGM.
Anybody sees any negatives on DIET? Thanks !
I believe DIET's new program costs $800/month v.s. NTRI costs $300/month. So they are targetting different customer base with a different incremental revenue & EPS.
I don't need DIET to grow 10x like NTRI did last year, I will be happy with a 3x from here. :)
Fell back to the fib line, but I know some very smart money that is in this one.
Diet centers, like gyms always see a boost in business the first month of the year as people set on their New Year's resolutions to eat right and exercise give it a go.
Let's see how this continues.
Jim Cramer did a piece on how baby boomers are doing whatever they can to turn back the clock - focusing on a company that makes a botox like treatment, MRX>
Want to get an edge on Wall Street? Then turn the channel away from financial news, Jim Cramer told "Mad Money" viewers on Tuesday.
Wall Street TVs are stuck in the financial news ghetto, which is why the pros don't know that Oprah Winfrey has revealed the next great play on the artificial youth movement.
On her "look younger, live longer show," doctors demonstrated the newest in antiwrinkle injections: Restylane. Cramer said it's superior to Botox in every way, which is why it's time to buy Restylane's maker Medicis Pharmaceutical (MRX:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take).
Oprah, one of the country's most influential people, is pushing the treatment to a population of vanity-driven baby boomers willing to live outside of their means to look good, Cramer said. It costs $700 a shot, and it takes three to four shots a year to keep your skin smooth.
QuoteWant to get an edge on Wall Street? Then turn the channel away from financial news, Jim Cramer told "Mad Money" viewers on Tuesday.
Logically this should mean turn Jim Cramer off also ;)
QuoteOprah, one of the country's most influential people
That's kinda worrying methinks......Go Oprah, Go Oprah....... ???
fyi:
DIET: Merriman Starts @ Buy; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , January 10, 2006 07:42 ET
Issuer: eDiets.com Inc (NasdaqSC: DIET)
Analyst Firm: Merriman Curhan Ford & Co.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Analyst Comments: The firm likes the company's virtual business model that allows for 85% gross margins and high operating leverage. The company addresses a multibillion dollar diet and health industry. Having fixed its core diet plan subscription business during FY05, they see numerous opportunities for the company to monetize on its user base, content, brand, and technology assets in FY06. They believe that, upon successful execution on a handful of new growth initiatives, their estimates could have substantial upside and the stock could trade into the $9-10 range.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.cab155711c83cf6defb67521164d49632d7e90474973208e48eda52cd3213714
QuoteAnyways $6.40 - $6.55 range is a good entry if there is a pullback.
DIET came back as expected but missed my upper entry level by $0.03 >:(
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13231)
Looking forward for tomorrow ;)
What's going on here, I can't post the full analysis? Let me call Ramsburg, probably it has something to do with the firewall system ???
I want to study the differences between DIET and NTRI, since they are exactly in the same business, yet NTRI is worth 10 times more than DIET.
Let's compare the two companies history on the # of shares outstanding, the current ratio, cash + equivalents, revenues and EPS.
1. Number of shares outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13227;image)
Both companies increased their share count since 1999, no differences here.
2. Current Ratio
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13228;image)
NTRI has a much better current ratio, that is, it has more assets relative to liabilities than DIET.
3. Cash and Equivalents
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13229;image)
Both companies have more or less the same amount of cash, but NTRI cash rose $5M over the last year and DIET's cash declined $1M. Still, not a significant difference here.
4. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13230;image)
The two companies were neck and neck (with a slight advantage for DIET) until 2005 began. At that point, something happened, because NTRI's revenues had a huge jump where as DIET continued with its historic growth rate.
5. EPS
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13232;image)
2004 and 2005 brought quite different destinies for the two companies.
Let's analyze this table from Yahoo (it is a bit old, but):
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13233;image)
DIET's market cap is 1/10 of NTRI's. Both companies have roughly the same number of employees. Revenue growth is much faster at NTRI. DIET's revenue is about 1/3 of NTRI's. NTRI has a gross margin of 48%, but DIET has a gross margin of 86% (this happens probably because of a change in NTRI's business model). Price to Sales ratio is much higher on NTRI than on DIET.
I think that if we compound all this information we get to the conclusion that DIET is worth more than 1/10 of NTRI, so it could be a «value» play.
But that's not the interesting part. The interesting part is that DIET is following NTRI on its footsteps, also entering the same high growth, high profit arena, the food delivery program. This means revenues and profits without a doubt will increase at DIET, but can it go, again, neck in neck with its competitor?
I understand that pricing at DIET is much higher, as valueseeker says, it is $800 for DIET a month and only $300 for NTRI, which seems to be a big disadvantage. But I have to confirm this and look for a explanation.
Also, what was NTRI's available pool (I mean, people following their website), and what's DIET's?
I feel encouraged by what I see, on the next update I'll compare the two business models on the food delivery program, clearly what makes the big difference between the two companies.
I'll continue holding DIET.
David and everyone holding,
There is eDiets.com's investor presentation scheduled for 3:40 p.m. EST, Thursday, January 12, 2006. The presentation will be webcast live and archived online on the Investor Relations section of the Company's website at www.eDiets.com/investors under "Webcast Links."
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060109/20060109005856.html?.v=1
Hope to get a much clear picture ;)
Quote from: David Randolph on January 11, 2006, 07:07:16 PM
4. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13230;image)
The two companies were neck and neck (with a slight advantage for DIET) until 2005 began. At that point, something happened, because NTRI's revenues had a huge jump where as DIET continued with its historic growth rate.
My wife had been telling me to look at NTRI since last summer. I wrote it off as a fad and payed no attention to the stock, instead focusing on Chinese water filters (anyone wanna buy some?). :P
So I asked again tonight, and my wife who is all things "Pop Culture" gave me the answer and her name is Zora.
Zora was on a tacky reality TV show called "Joe Millionaire".
The basic concept was a millionaire selects his future bride from a group of 20 women.
This show was a huge ratings winner during it's run, with women being the prime demographic.
In one episode Zora was supposed to wear a Ball Gown to one of the "Dates" but she couldn't fit into it:
(http://www.blast.net/hart/zoradress.jpg)
I guess millions of women watching felt empathy with that situation.
I'm informed that on the merits of her personality, Joe Millionaire picked her.
At the time Zora won the contest she was not obese, just big:
(http://www.blast.net/hart/zorabeforetree.jpg)
Not long afterwards, she went on Nutrisystems Diet and lost 17 pounds in 6 weeks
(http://www.blast.net/hart/zora-nutrisystem.jpg)
She became a National spokesperson around the end of 2004 (Which would coincide with the product taking off)
Here's the story: http://www.blast.net/hart/zora-nutrisystem.htm
I asked my wife about e-diet and her first thoughts about it was she didn't like the name.
"Women don't want to think they're on Diets", she said.
She thought the name Nutrisystems had appeal because it sounds "Nutritious".
Who am I to argue with logic like that since she pointed me to the # 1 stock of 2005 and I ignored it.
Quick! Someone e-mail that marketing strategy to DIET's marketing people and directors!
I'm burning my eyes reading things about DIET and NTRI ... I still can't confirm the monthly price of NTRI's service (it isn't clear on their website if that price is weekly or monthly ! Since you can make the program for one week only, perhaps it is a weekly price like DIET's. If this is the case DIET is much more competitive than NTRI.)
Also, just about $300 a month for, say, 4 meals a day, gives me just $2.67 a meal, I don't know if I wanna eat that :P
KCScott said his wife didn't like the name ... but my wife loved it ! She said the name says it all and wish we lived on the USA so she could enter one of those programs (well, not now, since our second son is coming :-*).
I think DIET's (http://www.ediets.com/) website looks much better than NTRI's (http://www.nutrisystem.com/) ... and the name FreshCuisine is an attractive name (maybe the difference in price is explained by this fresh/non fresh thing?).
NTRI's market cap is 10 times larger than DIET's. I don't think this is fair, I think both companies will be worth about the same in 3 to 5 years time. NTRI's food delivery program started first, that's why you see the big jump in revenues. I think DIET will see the same jump now its food delivery program also started.
Now I'm prepared to say: I'll hold DIET for the long term !
David,
My roommate does the nutrisystem diet and it is 300 for the month. Hope that helps
Quote from: patriotmp on January 13, 2006, 07:58:12 AM
David,
My roommate does the nutrisystem diet and it is 300 for the month. Hope that helps
Thanks a lot patriotmp :) It sure helps. So pricing on DIET is 2.66 times higher than on NTRI. This also means it needs just about 1/3 of the clients to get the same revenue. Also, margins will be larger. An average American makes about $3,000 a month in disposable income, right? To pay $800 for food doesn't seem a lot to me. Of course the company is targeting the high income portion of the economy, probably the ones who care most about their health and physical appearance. (also don't forget this business isn't considered a subscriber based service, because probably people will make just one or two months of diet, not years. People may pay a higher price because it is just a 2 or 3 times show).
I think this higher price/better quality is a wise strategy from DIET. Anyway, I have no doubts revenue and profit will increase significantly from this point, as the share price.
Price does not matter in a lot of cases...........
UnderArmour is doing well with $50 underwear (UARM)
True Religion is doing well with $200 jeans (TRLG)
And look at SBUX, bottled water, Godiva Chocolates, Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream, Grey Goose Vodka and every other product that you could probably get cheaper. But people like the product.
And if you look at any of these stocks, they have not been hurting.
I have ordered the nutrisystem food...and the $300.00 is just half the price. You also have to buy fresh fruit, vegetables and dairy products to go along with the food. The food is not very good....I did not reorder. :-\
Quote from: molly on January 13, 2006, 06:33:30 PM
I have ordered the nutrisystem food...and the $300.00 is just half the price. You also have to buy fresh fruit, vegetables and dairy products to go along with the food. The food is not very good....I did not reorder. :-\
Thanks for the great info molly, this is really what we need to know if the higher price/higher quality on DIET vs NTRI makes sense or not. I believe it does.
The market is starting to see the wonderfull long term opportunity on DIET, as the company follows NTRI's footsteps, but does it better !
DIET will soon be one of the 2 stocks held on the Long Term on Fire Portfolio (joining GIGM), for a maximum of 10 holdings.
Also, for trading purposes only, DIET continues to be an attractive pick, the stock had a nice white marubozu to new short term highs with volume above average.
DIET started their food delivery program 12 days ago, so we'll probably see revenues growing rapidly from this point, as happened with NTRI.
Here's the complete press release:
«eDiets.com(R) Expands its Offerings With Nationwide Premium Food Delivery Service
FreshCuisine(TM) Designed After eDiets.com Subscribers Show Desire for Superior Alternative in Home Food Delivery
Jan 5, 2006 8:30:00 AM
DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla., Jan. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET), announced today its entry into the food delivery service market with the launch of FreshCuisine(TM), a chef-prepared fresh food delivery service, which provides over 400 delicious, nutritionally sound menu items to those demanding a convenient and effective method to eat great food and lose weight. eDiets.com developed the FreshCuisine service to be individually tailored to each customer's tastes while still meeting weight loss goals. To complement the food service delivery, registered dieticians will be available by phone and online to provide counseling, addressing customer needs ranging from health issues such as diabetes or general weight loss concerns.
FreshCuisine was created in response to user feedback on the eDiets.com website. Users expressed interest in adopting well-balanced eating plans, but claimed their busy lifestyles prevented them from taking weekly trips to the grocery store and preparing home-cooked meals. FreshCuisine solves these problems by providing personalized meals -- seven breakfasts, seven lunches, seven dinners, and seven snacks per week to members.
Home food delivery service has become an increasingly popular component of the $48 billion-a-year diet industry. eDiets brings ten years experience of working with consumers across the country enabling them to establish a healthier lifestyle and allowing them to tailor their weight loss programs. The FreshCuisine menu was developed in partnership with a leading supplier that offered the most options, enabling customers to create plans that include only their favorite foods FreshCuisine also stands apart from competitors in that its meals are delivered on a weekly basis and are prepared by professional chefs.
"One of our goals with FreshCuisine is to get people to learn that eating healthy can be both delicious and satisfying at the same time," explains eDiets.com chief nutritionist Susan L. Burke. "The only way for people to maintain healthy eating habits is if they enjoy what they are eating. FreshCuisine allows individuals to select their own meals. If someone enjoys eating an omelet everyday, this program will make sure he can still do that and lose weight at the same time."
Customers order the eDiets.com service by visiting http://www.freshcuisine.com. After filling out a brief questionnaire describing their current health conditions, weight goals and food preferences, chefs prepare meals and ship them to customers' homes. The plan fits requirements for low sodium, low fat, low cholesterol, carb-controlled, and heart smart diets.
Subscribers to FreshCuisine will receive:
* Choice of food from a menu of several hundred items
* Online and phone access to nutritionists
* A 28-day healthy eating program designed by a professional dietician
* Three meals per day plus one snack/dessert
* To preserve freshness, the meals are delivered several times a month.
State-of-the-art packaging technologies eliminate the need to add
preservatives, and keep the food fresh.
"eDiets is bringing greater convenience than ever before to health- conscious consumers," said Ciaran G McCourt, President of eDiets.com. "We believe the combination of the convenience of our web service and the provision of tailored healthy fresh meals opens a new chapter for eDiets. It is one of many new growth initiatives that will expand our long-term growth opportunities. Consumers should have the ability to add convenience in their quest to diet without sacrificing quality, and with FreshCuisine, this is now possible."
About eDiets.com
eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET) is a premier online diet, fitness, and healthy living destination offering 24/7 professional advice, information, products and services to those seeking to improve their health and longevity. Since 1997 more than two million consumers worldwide have become eDiets.com members. Among other honors, the site has been named a Forbes.com spring 2005 "Best of the Web" and "Forbes Favorite" in the diet and nutrition category, and a PC Magazine "Editors' Choice" 2004 and 2005. eDiets.com offers more than 20 personalized online nutrition and fitness programs, as well as access to a wide range of expert and peer-based online support services that are all conveniently available around the clock. Founded in 1996 and headquartered in Deerfield Beach, FL, eDiets.com operates Web sites at http://www.eDiets.com, http;//www.eFitness.com, http://www.eDiets.de and http://www.eDiets.com.es. The company also publishes a personalized online interactive magazine, along with a family of industry-leading electronic newsletters that have an opt-in circulation base of over 13 million.
For more information about eDiets.com, please call (954) 360-9022 or visit http://www.eDiets.com.»
The news says: «FreshCuisine also stands apart from competitors in that its meals are delivered on a weekly basis and are prepared by professional chefs.»
Anybody knows the periodicity of food delivery on NTRI's service?
Tomorrow I'll buy 10% of the Long Term on Fire Portfolio (or $10,000) on DIET, so I can hold the stock for the long term (more than 2 years, if everything goes as planned).
I will also continue holding DIET on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio, since the short term trend remains bullish. Today the stock had just a minor pullback on profit taking, there was no technical damage.
I bought DIET for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio at January 9th, 2006. A few analysis later, that you can find on this thread: Need a Diet? (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4242.0) I concluded that I should hold DIET for the long term, based on its fundamentals and prospects.
Therefore, I'll buy it around today's open for the Long Term on Fire Portfolio, 10% of capital.
I will update this analysis on a bi-weekly basis, or whenever there are significant news or quarterly earnings releases. I'm expecting to hold DIET for at least 2 years, but possibly a lot more time, if everything develops in the way I'm expecting.
Many of you may know Alan Farley at realmoney or seen him on CNBC. In talking of some stocks under $10 yesterday he mentioned DIET and in that wrote. "...Weight-control stocks can be very strong in January as overeaters resolve to live healthier lifestyles. But seasonality is winding down for this speculative sector..."
Interesting as I never figured they has a "season" to be strong. It has double in price in 6 weeks and has that 2004 resistance at 9.55.
Quote from: metro on January 18, 2006, 08:13:33 AM
Many of you may know Alan Farley at realmoney or seen him on CNBC. In talking of some stocks under $10 yesterday he mentioned DIET and in that wrote. "...Weight-control stocks can be very strong in January as overeaters resolve to live healthier lifestyles. But seasonality is winding down for this speculative sector..."
Interesting as I never figured they has a "season" to be strong. It has double in price in 6 weeks and has that 2004 resistance at 9.55.
Hello metro :)
I think what Alan Farley says is nonsense. That's like saying «beverage stocks go up in the Summer because people drink more», or «retail stocks go up near Christmas because they sell more at that season». Every year there is Summer, every year there is Christmas, and every year there are new year resolutions.
Yes, companies have seasonality on their revenue and earnings, but since that happens every year, I find it hard to believe stocks move on that seasonality too. I guess Alan Farley just didn't do enough DD, on NTRI or DIET, to come up with a sentence like that ... revenues this January will be much, much higher than previous January's, and that's not on seasonality, it is the fact that these companies have a complete new service to offer their costumers.
I bought DIET today for the Long Term on Fire Portfolio at an average price of $7.50 and I'm prepared to hold it for the long term.
Hi, David:
How much money you are going to put into this portfolio?
$100,000?
If so, each position will start with $10K. Am I right?
Quote from: shawFund on January 18, 2006, 07:20:24 PM
Hi, David:
How much money you are going to put into this portfolio?
$100,000?
If so, each position will start with $10K. Am I right?
Hi ShawFund,
Yes, thats right.
This could be good news for DIET. MED is also in the same industry, though half the mkt cap. They also offer meals for online order and various diet plans.
Medifast sees higher FY05, FY06 revenue
Jan 17 (Reuters) - Medifast Inc. (MED.A: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday said it expects a 47 percent rise in 2005 revenue at $40 million, helped by an increase in direct sales.
For 2005, two analysts on average expected the company to earn revenue of $37.7 million, according to Reuters Estimates.
The maker of consumable health and diet products said it expects 2006 profit of 22 cents to 24 cents per share on revenue of $48 million to $50 million.
For 2006, two analysts on average expect the company to earn 25 cents per share, excluding special items on revenue of $45.3 million, according to Reuters Estimates.
Profile:
Medifast, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of weight and disease management products, and other consumable health and diet products. The company's product lines include weight and disease management, meal replacement, and sports nutrition products. It offers various weight and disease management products under the Medifast brand and for select private label customers.
The stock is behaving a lot similar to VPHM when it started to move. Watch it closely.
I noticed the same - DIET is acting very similar to the way VPHM was trading when it was just getting started. I bought VPHM around the $6 level and rode most of it while I traded it. If I just would have bought more on pullbacks instead of trading I would have made over 2 Million dollars. I see DIET acting the same way. Corrects itself intra-day with a lot of people on the side lines waiting to jump in on any pullback. The new Fresh Cuisine concept in going to increase revenues in a big way and the new CEO is a no-nonsense guy who really wants to grow this business. I think we have another VPHM on our hands here. In fact, once revenues from the new products are out it will be better than VPHM. Goodluck guys, don't be so fast to trade this as to buy a little and then buy on pullbacks. I have found that is the best way to make money in these EPS winners.
I'm not sure that I'm replying correctly here (meant to try to reply to David's earlier post).
DIET showed up on several of my recent IBD Screens. It shows up quite nicely with an EPS Rating of 76 and RS (Relative Strength) of 97. IBD prefers EPS ratings of 80 or better but I find a lot of stocks that are getting ready to move up significantly seem to have an EPS Rating of 75 to 77 on IBD.
The only thing that bothers me about this stock is the cash flow is negative and the free cash flow (cash flow above expenditures) is slightly positive and declined a bit from last quarter as I read it. Although after just looking at the Free Cash Flow from 31 Mar this stock has appeared to make a considerable turnaround to the psoitive side all things considered. Overall the fundamentals are positive to a bit mixed; but it looks like one of those stocks that will catch the eye of increasing numbers of institutional investors given its apparent turnaround from previous quarters.
Quote from: mmcmanus on January 23, 2006, 07:35:32 AM
The only thing that bothers me about this stock is the cash flow is negative and the free cash flow (cash flow above expenditures) is slightly positive and declined a bit from last quarter as I read it. Although after just looking at the Free Cash Flow from 31 Mar this stock has appeared to make a considerable turnaround to the psoitive side all things considered. Overall the fundamentals are positive to a bit mixed; but it looks like one of those stocks that will catch the eye of increasing numbers of institutional investors given its apparent turnaround from previous quarters.
This turnaround is based on previous earnings reports and don't include their new food service. Even if FreshCuisine is only marginally successful, revenues should increase greatly (as well as costs). Imagine what the next couple of quarters have in store for eDiet's financial picture once FreshCuisine gets going. :)
Thanks that gives an added context to my comments. I'll have to look at that more. Also I see this stock is just under $8 so it could pull back. If it does the pullback it could go as far as $7 to $7.25 (but at the moment I'm doubting that scenario given its relative strength). I'm thinking it would pullback to some point above that. I would like to enter but I wonder if I need to see how this reacts around $8. Perhaps it will pullback to a secondary trend line (that needs to be etched out). Actually the more I look at it -- it seems that it has pulled back previously and touched just at the top of a cup like formation that goes back to about March 04. Any thoughts on an entry at this point? (Say enter above $8 if it breaks above and pulls back to that level in a couple of days or alternatively at $7.50 if it runs into a little trouble here?). Mike
possible trend reversal in sight.
-Resistence appeared at around 8.16 which was the right shoulder peak of a head and shoulders pattern that occured about a year ago.
-hangman candle, a bearish top reversal candle, followed by to red candles of confirmation wich also broke down the ascending trendline.
-MACD about to cross downwards
-RSI heading down
Curious to see how this technical breakdown pans out. The trend line was pretty steep with an upward slope of 14.5 cents/ day so it was bound to break sometime soon. Possibly looking to get in once the dust settles.
Good luck everyone holding,
-fous
The big volume picked up on DIET at around 20 Dec, 2005. I suspect the new resolution in play. I think DIET may have to come up with some solid figures in earnings to convience that its next NTRI. Though it look a play to be kept on radar list.
I like pullbacks to the 20 ema/center BB during a bullish breakout. Often a great spot to buy or add. I may enter tomorrow. I think the low will be retested, but it will close slightly higher than today. That's what my crystal ball is saying anyway.
I shorted NTRI today. Looks toppy.
I am considering ordering the Nutrisystem food plan. Trying to lose 10 pounds or so. I eat out way too often. Checked the eDiets food plan and it's more than I want to pay. Funny though that I shorted NTRI and am looking at buying DIET when NTRI's food plan is the one I'm considering.
Thanks for all the analysis and comments on DIET. Yes, fous is right, the ascending trendline was broken, but it was too steep anyway.
I guess that not much people see the value on DIET's stock because it still didn't show up on the quarterly numbers. For now it looks like investors are going with that seasonality story. Only when the company reports the 1st quarter results everybody will probably see what we're discussing now.
I got this post from Yahoo Message Board:
«I called the company today
by: dead_beet_dad
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/25/06 02:13 pm
Msg: 3451 of 3514
and asked them how the Fresh Cuisine program was doing. Exact words" Very good response, better than they thought, and members are telling them the food taste great and much better than what Nutri-system is offering". This was encouraging to me, I really don't know why people are selling this stock but after my contact with the company I plan on being a shareholder. Please call them or email them and they will respond.»
I don't like to call since my English isn't very good, but if anyone of you pleases ... thanks :-*
I'll continue holding DIET, despite the technical scares. Even technically one must consider that the previous trendline was too steep and the stock was overbought.
I see a nice entering point around current levels, my buying point was $6.90.
It's up pre-market... Not a lot, but still.
Amarens
Well that didn't contribute to anything :-[
Amarens
Nice rally for DIET. The higher open was surprising but the retest of yesterday's low was what I expected. My entry today was almost perfect!
Quote«I called the company today
by: dead_beet_dad
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/25/06 02:13 pm
Msg: 3451 of 3514
Well if "dead_beet_dad" says it, then it must true :D
"NutriSystem's stock price has increased by 1,000% in the past year, so investors have definitely taken notice. Investors have also taken notice of eDiets.com (Nasdaq: DIET - News), which lately has been flirting with new 52-week highs."
- Motley Fool (Jan. 18)
"The hit-or-miss group of stocks that trade for less than $10 may be back from the dead. Homestore, Bema Gold, Broadwing and Asyst hold the most promise. Avoid eDiets.com, 24.7 Real Media and LivePerson for now."
- TheStreet.com Real Money (Jan. 10)
"Ciaran G. McCourt, President of eDiets.com, Inc. (NasdaqSC:DIET - News), will preside over the closing bell to celebrate the company's 10-year anniversary."
- Market Wire (Jan. 9)
"10-Jan-06: Merriman Curhan Ford Initiated Coverage: Buy"
Seems to be getting attention lately.
Here's the transcript for the 3rd quarter's conference call: http://internetstockblog.com/article/4244
And the Q&A session: http://internetstockblog.com/article/4245
Quote from: Amarens on January 26, 2006, 11:08:48 AM
Well that didn't contribute to anything :-[
Amarens
That was to be expected Amarens. After a close at the low of the day it is hard for an higher open to hold. Usually the stock goes to negative territory before it rebounds (I know this from day trading experience).
May I recommend you a book so you can understand these short term phenomena?
It is «Candlestick Charting Explained», from Gregory L. Morris.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on January 26, 2006, 05:02:44 PM
Nice rally for DIET. The higher open was surprising but the retest of yesterday's low was what I expected. My entry today was almost perfect!
Quote«I called the company today
by: dead_beet_dad
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/25/06 02:13 pm
Msg: 3451 of 3514
Well if "dead_beet_dad" says it, then it must true :D
Lol, what a nice laugh you gave me this morning Lucas Scott ;D
Quote from: irod on January 27, 2006, 04:10:05 AM
Here's the transcript for the 3rd quarter's conference call: http://internetstockblog.com/article/4244
And the Q&A session: http://internetstockblog.com/article/4245
Thanks for these links irod :) (applaud)
Some highlights:
«Bill Vlahos
Two questions. When you guys talk about testing out a meal delivery plan, can you give us a little bit more color on what that might look like? Would that be somewhat similar to, say, a NutriSystem offering?
Company Speaker
This is Ciaran here. We have a test up at the moment, which is in our sales firm if you care to go through and subscribe, you may see an option to purchase a food delivery service, or meal delivery service. Currently, our partner in this area is in the fresh side of this, rather than the side of NutriSystem, which is more shelf stable foods. So we're looking closely at that side of the market. But it is in test mode, and we hope to have more updated numbers to give you in the next quarter's call.»
«Ken Farsalas
Hi. Good morning. Just a followup on the last question about meal delivery and the test that you're doing there Do you anticipate that meal delivery is going to be a strategic focus of the business in 2006?
Company Speaker
As I said in my statement, the eCommerce is a major focus for us in '06, together with ad revenue, and also, of course, keeping our subscription levels up. And we see the food product as a core part of the eCommerce and store plans we have in '06. I look on the diet destination as our core strategy, and we think this can include and embrace not just diet brands and health brands, but also services. And I think a meal delivery service as part of that strategy is going to be key for us in '06 and going forward.»
The difference between the eDiets food delivery service and NTRI's service is that DIET's food is fresh and NTRI's food is frozen, something like that.
«Actually, as you know, the second half of the year, I should say, we typically see lower members than in the first half. And we actually under-spent a few ad dollars in the third quarter, i.e., we had actually targeted to spend a little bit more, which ultimately would have led to a little bit higher growth in the revenue in Q4. But as we talked about earlier, we are determined to make the right decisions on an economic basis. So it wasn't prudent to go out and acquire members at all costs. So actually, those numbers obviously came a little bit lower than expected on the revenue side, and obviously that helps the bottom line, at least in the short-term. Right now, we're pretty much focused on January 1, the kick-off of the new season. As you know, this is our slowest time forever to recruit them, almost a 9-week quarter with regards to new customer acquisitions.»
The first half of the year is stronger than the second half, probably that's why they launched the FreshCuisine service on January 5th.
I feel this analysis should be on the Long Term thread also, I'll put it there.
From a trading perspective, nice rally yesterday and everything is set for an attack to recent highs above $8.20. There's no doubt, from the conference call, that this would be a sound investment even if it were not for the Food Delivery Service. In this way, this can be an extremely profitable investment.
I'll continue holding DIET, both on a trading perspective as for long term purposes.
Quote from: Amarens on January 26, 2006, 11:08:48 AM
Well that didn't contribute to anything :-[
Amarens
That was to be expected Amarens. After a close at the low of the day it is hard for an higher open to hold. Usually the stock goes to negative territory before it rebounds (I know this from day trading experience).
May I recommend you a book so you can understand these short term phenomena?
It is «Candlestick Charting Explained», from Gregory L. Morris.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on January 26, 2006, 05:02:44 PM
Nice rally for DIET. The higher open was surprising but the retest of yesterday's low was what I expected. My entry today was almost perfect!
Quote«I called the company today
by: dead_beet_dad
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/25/06 02:13 pm
Msg: 3451 of 3514
Well if "dead_beet_dad" says it, then it must true :D
Lol, what a nice laugh you gave me this morning Lucas Scott ;D
Quote from: irod on January 27, 2006, 04:10:05 AM
Here's the transcript for the 3rd quarter's conference call: http://internetstockblog.com/article/4244
And the Q&A session: http://internetstockblog.com/article/4245
Thanks for these links irod :) (applaud)
Some highlights:
«Bill Vlahos
Two questions. When you guys talk about testing out a meal delivery plan, can you give us a little bit more color on what that might look like? Would that be somewhat similar to, say, a NutriSystem offering?
Company Speaker
This is Ciaran here. We have a test up at the moment, which is in our sales firm if you care to go through and subscribe, you may see an option to purchase a food delivery service, or meal delivery service. Currently, our partner in this area is in the fresh side of this, rather than the side of NutriSystem, which is more shelf stable foods. So we're looking closely at that side of the market. But it is in test mode, and we hope to have more updated numbers to give you in the next quarter's call.»
«Ken Farsalas
Hi. Good morning. Just a followup on the last question about meal delivery and the test that you're doing there Do you anticipate that meal delivery is going to be a strategic focus of the business in 2006?
Company Speaker
As I said in my statement, the eCommerce is a major focus for us in '06, together with ad revenue, and also, of course, keeping our subscription levels up. And we see the food product as a core part of the eCommerce and store plans we have in '06. I look on the diet destination as our core strategy, and we think this can include and embrace not just diet brands and health brands, but also services. And I think a meal delivery service as part of that strategy is going to be key for us in '06 and going forward.»
The difference between the eDiets food delivery service and NTRI's service is that DIET's food is fresh and NTRI's food is frozen, something like that.
«Actually, as you know, the second half of the year, I should say, we typically see lower members than in the first half. And we actually under-spent a few ad dollars in the third quarter, i.e., we had actually targeted to spend a little bit more, which ultimately would have led to a little bit higher growth in the revenue in Q4. But as we talked about earlier, we are determined to make the right decisions on an economic basis. So it wasn't prudent to go out and acquire members at all costs. So actually, those numbers obviously came a little bit lower than expected on the revenue side, and obviously that helps the bottom line, at least in the short-term. Right now, we're pretty much focused on January 1, the kick-off of the new season. As you know, this is our slowest time forever to recruit them, almost a 9-week quarter with regards to new customer acquisitions.»
The first half of the year is stronger than the second half, probably that's why they launched the FreshCuisine service on January 5th.
I feel this analysis should be on the Long Term thread also, I'll put it there.
From a trading perspective, nice rally yesterday and everything is set for an attack to recent highs above $8.20. There's no doubt, from the conference call, that this would be a sound investment even if it were not for the Food Delivery Service. In this way, this can be an extremely profitable investment.
I'll continue holding DIET, both on a trading perspective as for long term purposes.
Thanks David for the recommendation. It will be the next one I'll start to learn.
Amarens
QuoteI shorted NTRI today. Looks toppy.
I covered my NTRI short on Friday. 10% loss :P It gapped up as Citigroup intiated coverage with a Buy rating. They were probably saying sell when the stock was at $6 last year. Anal-ists! Maybe Citigroup will throw a little love DIET's way so I can cover that loss and then some with my long position on DIET.
Diet chart has been somewhat tainted by a 100 share transaction that went through at $8.60 just after the open (way above bid and ask), looking at time and sales the 'real' open price was $7.84 6,100 shares.
I mention this as otherwise it looks like a huge sell off candle when in reality it was a day that had a challenge of the $8 barrier but ultimately could not hold onto it, really it should be a doji candle.
Yes Aussie, that was really a strange open. The stock needed the rest of the day to come down to close the gap.
DIET is still consolidating, but I have little doubts it will decisively break $8 on the upside. This is clearly a case where the news is ahead of the fundamental numbers. Not much people paid attention to the new service the company is offering (Fresh Cuisine), but they will certainly notice the jump in revenues and profits when the company reports 1st quarter results, I believe.
I'll continue holding, both from a trading and investment perspective.
Volume is drying down on DIET, as the stock still struggles to definitely break $8 on the upside. But, bull trends have no resistance and ultimately we'll have a powerfull white marubozu to new highs.
The only analyst covering DIET calls the 1st quarter of 2006 as a negative quarter, which I find quite strange. I believe the company will beat estimates with ease going forward. Everything is out of date on research covering DIET, since it started it's new food delivery service in January 2006 DIET is a whole different company.
The trend is still bullish, I'll continue holding DIET, both from a trading and investment perspective.
DIET is still consolidating. I don't think it made its top. We have an important short term support zone around $6.95 - $7.05.
Volume is starting to pick up a bit here. I see the stock rebounding from current levels and breaking $8 on the upside. I'll feel technically disappointed if we get a close below $6.95, but I can't say I'll sell if the happens. I would have to make a new technical analysis then.
For now, I'll just say I'll continue holding DIET.
Hi David,
According to my dear wife I really need a DIET so here we go - I am in ;)
We are probably a few who can remember a decade back when Brick and Mortar companies went online and the stock price soared. It is kind of ironic to see the opposite being the case today ::)
I believe in the Business Case. I believe there is much more money to be made in the "real" world for a company like DIET with a strong brand and customer base in one of the hottest industries in this decade.
Whether we are looking at 200% or 1000% increase in the share price really depends on the execution of the business plan but there should be a lot of upside on this pick.
Mike
In part because of DIET, the StocksOnFire portfolio looks like it's been on a diet. The portfolio is losing weight. When DIET dropped to the 6.50's earlier today, we were entering Mary-Kate Olsen territory! :D Then it bounced back. Hopefully it wasn't just a binge and purge with the purge to come next week :o But seriously, I like the chart a lot still and may double up on my position Monday if it hits the 33 ema again (~6.80). That bogus candle from Monday sure is annoying, isn't it?
To be on the record, I am on both real life and trading-life DIET.
Goodluck all.
Michael
when you posted today that you were in, I doubled up. Diana and I have decided to be the trial group for 3stocks on fire for Diets. We're not kidding we will communicate to this board how we have ordered this food, how it was delivered.and what we eat each day. We will start this endevour sat AM and will start a new thread on the Members Section. It will be titled Diana and Mike's Mission. All members will get our weekly update regarding their product.
Whether The stock goes up or down we're committed for the next 30 days. Look forward to updates I happen to think will know pretty soon if this product is worth our time.
applaud 1reilly, I am too fighting the battle of bulge. Will intend to regularly visit your thread and may post things related to that. Appreciate the effort.
Just to evaluate some alternate methods to DIET I would be on diet for next 30 days using commonly available stuff [like diet pepsi, apples, oranges, subway sandwich etc..] and will post the progress, cost and results on my diary at STOCK TALKING BOARD. In most probability I may not be doing any exercise, though would do some light walk over weekends.
On Diet Feb 4 to March 4.
Quote from: 1reilly on February 04, 2006, 12:05:44 AM
Michael
when you posted today that you were in, I doubled up. Diana and I have decided to be the trial group for 3stocks on fire for Diets. We're not kidding we will communicate to this board how we have ordered this food, how it was delivered.and what we eat each day. We will start this endevour sat AM
Hi Reilly
I will be a regular at your and Diana's thread. I hope the first mail will include a before picture so we can judge the effect!
On a serious note a lot of us are investing in pharmaceautical companies but if you drill down a lot of the market for the drugs are generate from the simple fact that people have a very unhealthy lifestyle.
I am invested in CTE, BNT, ANGN and AMLN. All these companies are earning money treating the symptoms of overweight.
DIET doesn't treat the symptom but the root of the problem (so does ANGN) to me it seems to be a much better approach to the health issues facing the western world and I think common sense will win. In the meantime I will continue to hold CTE, BNT and AMLN just as an insurance.
Enjoy the Fresh Cousine. I might ask you to DHL left overs to Mozambique!
Mike
Quote from: Michael on February 03, 2006, 01:14:33 PM
Hi David,
According to my dear wife I really need a DIET so here we go - I am in ;)
We are probably a few who can remember a decade back when Brick and Mortar companies went online and the stock price soared. It is kind of ironic to see the opposite being the case today ::)
I believe in the Business Case. I believe there is much more money to be made in the "real" world for a company like DIET with a strong brand and customer base in one of the hottest industries in this decade.
Whether we are looking at 200% or 1000% increase in the share price really depends on the execution of the business plan but there should be a lot of upside on this pick.
Mike
Welcome aboard Michael :) That was perfect timing ... when all technical guys were bailing out you came in with your fundamental case and the stock turned around.
One of the things I'm appreciating about fundamental analysis is the way we can filter short term technical signals. Perhaps that's the difference between strong and weak hands. Strong hands have a fundamental background to base their trading ideas. Weak hands are much more vulnerable to short term market movements - and trading mistakes.
Yes, DIET is going from the online world to the real world of food delivery. That is a perfect symbiosis: to have a large online community and then sell them products and services. (I wonder if Stocks on Fire LLC shouldn't try to sell you, registered users, some more things hahaha)
Quote from: Lucas Scott on February 03, 2006, 04:04:11 PM
In part because of DIET, the StocksOnFire portfolio looks like it's been on a diet. The portfolio is losing weight. When DIET dropped to the 6.50's earlier today, we were entering Mary-Kate Olsen territory! :D Then it bounced back. Hopefully it wasn't just a binge and purge with the purge to come next week :o But seriously, I like the chart a lot still and may double up on my position Monday if it hits the 33 ema again (~6.80). That bogus candle from Monday sure is annoying, isn't it?
Yes Lucas Scott, that 200% cross was very brief. I'm back to 190% again. But I believe I'm building a strong foundation for the future with this portfolio. Some stocks were overbought when I bought them so profit taking and other issues took the portfolio down 5%. Soon the Stocks on Fire Portfolio will be back above 200% and beyond.
I hope you double up on DIET. Good luck :)
Quote from: 1reilly on February 04, 2006, 12:05:44 AM
Michael
when you posted today that you were in, I doubled up. Diana and I have decided to be the trial group for 3stocks on fire for Diets. We're not kidding we will communicate to this board how we have ordered this food, how it was delivered.and what we eat each day. We will start this endeavour sat AM and will start a new thread on the Members Section. It will be titled Diana and Mike's Mission. All members will get our weekly update regarding their product.
Whether The stock goes up or down we're committed for the next 30 days. Look forward to updates I happen to think will know pretty soon if this product is worth our time.
This is an amazing help 1reilly :) Thanks a lot and good luck on your losing weight efforts :)
Quote from: stocky on February 04, 2006, 12:45:18 AM
applaud 1reilly, I am too fighting the battle of bulge. Will intend to regularly visit your thread and may post things related to that. Appreciate the effort.
Just to evaluate some alternate methods to DIET I would be on diet for next 30 days using commonly available stuff [like diet pepsi, apples, oranges, subway sandwich etc..] and will post the progress, cost and results on my diary at STOCK TALKING BOARD. In most probability I may not be doing any exercise, though would do some light walk over weekends.
On Diet Feb 4 to March 4.
Now I'm thinking that DIET should do some advertising on www.3stocksonfire.org ;D We, traders and investors, don't do much exercise, like to eat good stuff, got money and generally, we have an overweight problem :P
I'm going to write eDiets.com with an advertising proposal (ouch, already trying to increase the costs of the company hahaha).
ohh, I wish I had eDiets or something like that in Portugal ... it wouldn't need to be a food delivery service with the diet theme, ANY food delivery service would be great ! I really don't like to be day trading the DAX and suddenly, be hungry, enter the car, drive some, enter a restaurant, order the meal, eat it, pay, drive back home and find out ... «what a big move I missed» ;D
Coming back to DIET, the stock made an hammer after Michael & friends started buying, volume picked up considerably and the stock closed above the $6.95 support level. I bet we're going higher from here and I'll continue holding.
I've posted my diatribe in the members corner, here I'll just post what I think relates to DIET in an investment sense. I went to Nutrisystem's web site for a comparison of services and cost. Here's the bottom line. A. using listed proGrams Diet offers 3, Nutri lists 6. Nutri has a woman's, woman's over60, men's, men' over 60, Diabetic, and vegetarian. B. all 28 days sent to you at once by Nutri with $16 approx. shipping costs. Diets sent weekly with $100 shipping costs. Diets cost for middle cost program $840.00, Nutri's $346.51.
I don't think there's anyway we will know the revs we can expect until we see one or two quarters. I say two quarters because Diet is much more exspensive and I think this will lead to people spending much less time on their program. At 350 a month I could see many people developing a long term approach with Nutri's system. It's going to be interesting to see how Diet does at these price levels. But I am convinced were dealing with two entirely different demographics.
Thinking i may have to buy in near the close on monday if we see a white candle. Fundamentally i dont know much about this company, But when michael and Dave both say they like it, ill take their word for it ;)
Technically there as been an upsloping resistence trendline since march 05 that price action finally broke out of in the beginning of Jan 06, Then we had that nice rally and now price action has retraced back down to that upsloping line which is now support and just about perfectly tapped it with a gorgeous long hammer candle. Looking foward to making some profits on this one with you guys. Havnt bought one of your picks in a while Dave ive been kinda doin my own thing, Missed out on GIGM cause of that bearish divergence of MACD i was worried about when i posted on the GIGM board when it was at 2.80, and missed the train :'( So i'll hop in on the Mr randolph bandwagon this time around and hopefully enjoy some profits ;D
-fous
Hey Fous(c)
Nice DIET analysis, you can apply the same ascending channel logic to GIGM, maybe you might like to try and ride that train as well ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.msg44885#msg44885
Thanks Aus i'll look into it 8)
-fousc
Great Fundamental, I also missed out the ride on this one, i'll buy DIET but not too fast, waiting on the sideline for now. ;)
Hopped in this morning at 7.18. Lets make some moooooooooooooola >:D
-fous man
Quote from: 1reilly on February 05, 2006, 11:00:43 AM
I've posted my diatribe in the members corner, here I'll just post what I think relates to DIET in an investment sense. I went to Nutrisystem's web site for a comparison of services and cost. Here's the bottom line. A. using listed proGrams Diet offers 3, Nutri lists 6. Nutri has a woman's, woman's over60, men's, men' over 60, Diabetic, and vegetarian. B. all 28 days sent to you at once by Nutri with $16 approx. shipping costs. Diets sent weekly with $100 shipping costs. Diets cost for middle cost program $840.00, Nutri's $346.51.
I don't think there's anyway we will know the revs we can expect until we see one or two quarters. I say two quarters because Diet is much more exspensive and I think this will lead to people spending much less time on their program. At 350 a month I could see many people developing a long term approach with Nutri's system. It's going to be interesting to see how Diet does at these price levels. But I am convinced were dealing with two entirely different demographics.
I've read your thread 1reilly, great fun and information there :) Thanks a lot !
(although I don't understand your weight or tall numbers, I hope you succeed on your diet :)).
It looks like price of the service is quite high ... perhaps too high? We'll see. Anyway, this way DIET only needs about 1/3 of NTRI's costumer's to come up with the same revenue. At $840 per month/per costumer they need an average of 5158 monthly costumers to double their 3rd quarter revenue.
Anybody knows NTRI's numbers? I read they had 375,000 costumers in 2005, that's 31,250 a month :o
$350/$840 = 0.42*31,250 = 13,020.
DIET needs an average of 13,020 costumers per month to have the same revenues as NTRI, which were about $205M in 2005 and are expected to be $375M in 2006.
DIET's current revenues are about $55M a year.
1reilly already told us the price is high. Now he'll tell us about the quality of the service. Thanks a lot 1reilly, I'll continue holding DIET both on a trading and investment perspective.
David,
DIET does not need to have the same revenue as NTRI for us to make money. NTRI's market cap is $1.5B, while DIET is $150M. 3x from here for DIET's pps increase will keep me happy, and they don't need to be wildly successful as NTRI to do this.
I said at the beginning of this email thread that DIET's program is $800/month while NTRI's is $300/month. DIET is targeting high income bracket while NTRI's is targeting middle class. That's the difference. I would think DIET's profit on a per customer base is higher than NTRI. DIET's last earning report is mid-November, so we are due to hear from them pretty soon again.
-Valueseeker
Since I bought DIET when David first recommended it, my portfolio has gotten a lot lighter!
Quote from: snowcat on February 09, 2006, 01:41:09 PM
Since I bought DIET when David first recommended it, my portfolio has gotten a lot lighter!
DIET still traded higher than DAVID's first buy price ($6.90 -> $7.16).
Quote from: valueseeker on February 07, 2006, 08:19:59 AM
David,
DIET does not need to have the same revenue as NTRI for us to make money. NTRI's market cap is $1.5B, while DIET is $150M. 3x from here for DIET's pps increase will keep me happy, and they don't need to be wildly successful as NTRI to do this.
I said at the beginning of this email thread that DIET's program is $800/month while NTRI's is $300/month. DIET is targeting high income bracket while NTRI's is targeting middle class. That's the difference. I would think DIET's profit on a per customer base is higher than NTRI. DIET's last earning report is mid-November, so we are due to hear from them pretty soon again.
-Valueseeker
I fully agree with you Valueseeker, good luck :)
Quote from: snowcat on February 09, 2006, 01:41:09 PM
Since I bought DIET when David first recommended it, my portfolio has gotten a lot lighter!
Come on snowcat, DIET is still trading above my purchase price, which was $6.90.
Quote from: shawFund on February 09, 2006, 04:53:49 PM
Quote from: snowcat on February 09, 2006, 01:41:09 PM
Since I bought DIET when David first recommended it, my portfolio has gotten a lot lighter!
DIET still traded higher than DAVID's first buy price ($6.90 -> $7.16).
Thanks shawFund :)
Funny press release from DIET today: Women Across the United States Confess That Beauty Is More Important Than Brains (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=178505&guid=%7B66A11C09%2DFC56%2D4E16%2D9249%2D0F9DA81C019B%7D&symb=)
(I bet Julia and other 3 Stocks women subscribers won't like this ;D)
The stock couldn't hold those near $8 levels and is still consolidating. No problem, the more it consolidates the higher it will go when it breaksout.
I'll continue holding DIET.
Over the past 3 days we had a Sticky Sandwich candlestick pattern, which favours a rally from current levels on DIET.
The stock is still consolidating, but sooner rather than later it will break $8 on the upside. The technical target of that bullish breakout is something like $9.87.
I'll continue holding and waiting for this outcome.
I just want to highlight the extraordinary contribution 1reilly is giving to our community on his thread on the Members Board: Mike & Diana's Mission (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4484.msg44828#msg44828)
I am pleased to read that he likes the food coming from eDiets.com :)
QuoteBottom line, the quality of the food, the ease of preparation, ease of acquisition, and desire to have something healthy around all the time will have me re-ordering and I think so will other users.
QuoteThis company's product acceptance now only depends on quality of food. I can tell you right now there is a huge difference between Nutri's food and eDiets. People will pay for quality end of story.
The price is higher, but quality is also superior as we thought. If costumers are occasional on both services, for an occasional service we usually prefer the highly quality one, specially when it regards health. Eating at a fine restaurant also costs 3 times more than eating at McDonald's and nobody sees a problem with that ...
1reilly contribution makes me more certain DIET is a great long term pick, I thank him for that.
I've been reading their website, it was remodeled: Fresh Cuisine (http://www.ediets.com/start2.cfm?n_funnelid=325)
Just a small negative: what's that advertising to a competitor doing on the homepage? (Lean Cuisine from Nestle)
I think DIET will be at least a $1B market cap in the future and I'll continue holding the stock for the long term.
That's the name "Lean Cuisine" I think - was in the USA about 6 years ago and someone took me to a Sams Club and I saw there frozen dinners in bulk at under $3 so it surprised me to to see in the 1reilly area that the cost form DIET is a lot more.
I am very thin so can eat anything...but maybe Lean Cuisine makes the product? do not know how the two differ
Lookin better every day :)
A third soldier joined in the bullish march today. ;D
Jody
It looks like after a 50% Fibonacci retracement, finally DIET is ready to climb and make new highs. Fundamentally this pick is as legit as it can be. Now the market is starting to agree, and that's a beautiful thing.
1reilly made an outstanding job on DIET, and it looks like the stock will reward him and pay for those meals many fold :) That's the beauty of buying products of companies we invest, it feels much better.
Never thought about this, but can this issue be a factor influencing consumer psychology in the US? More than 50% of households invest in stocks, so they're inclined to consume products of the companies they invest? ;D Just a crazy idea, but capitalism is really amazing when it works so well as in the US (at least from an international point of view)
We have to remember that in the 4th quarter of 2005 Fresh Cuisine didn't exist yet, so the quarter may disappoint some investors. What matters most is the guidance, everybody will want to hear how the new service is going. And I bet its going well, after what we've heard from 1reilly.
If we close above $8.20 we get a technical target of $9.87.
Quote from: metro on February 15, 2006, 09:30:18 AM
That's the name "Lean Cuisine" I think - was in the USA about 6 years ago and someone took me to a Sams Club and I saw there frozen dinners in bulk at under $3 so it surprised me to to see in the 1reilly area that the cost form DIET is a lot more.
I am very thin so can eat anything...but maybe Lean Cuisine makes the product? do not know how the two differ
Well, eDiets food service, Fresh Cuisine, delivers fresh food, not frozen. That seems to be the main difference.
Lean Cuisine is another frozen food service as NutriSystem's service. I hope Nestle is paying a lot to have that advertising on the Homepage ;D
Nice to see you metro, good trades !
Quote from: David Randolph on February 17, 2006, 03:53:41 AM
If we close above $8.20 we get a technical target of $9.87.
Hey Dave im just curious of where you got your 9.87 technical target since you didn't explain it in your post. Right now i see two technical targets of 9.30 or 10.19 depending on how you judge the ascending triangle.
regardless of targets, were lookin bullish again ;D
-fous
Hello fous :)
Explanation for my target:
1) Forget $8.60 as the high, since it was a "funny" open with just 100 shares traded.
2) So, the high of the move was $8.20
3) The low of the correction was $6.53
4) If we get a bullish breakout of $8.20, the technical target is $8.20-$6.53 = $1.67+$8.20 = $9.87
Of course, this is just a technical indication. Your triangle, although correct, is subjective when it comes to a target. Again, the most important thing is the chart is pointing north :D
Quote from: David Randolph on February 17, 2006, 06:57:06 AM
Hello fous :)
Explanation for my target:
1) Forget $8.60 as the high, since it was a "funny" open with just 100 shares traded.
2) So, the high of the move was $8.20
3) The low of the correction was $6.53
4) If we get a bullish breakout of $8.20, the technical target is $8.20-$6.53 = $1.67+$8.20 = $9.87
Of course, this is just a technical indication. Your triangle, although correct, is subjective when it comes to a target. Again, the most important thing is the chart is pointing north :D
Thanks for the clarification Dave, I see now your kind of looking at it as a short term trading range breakout.
-fous
Yahoo has an Earnings announcement date of 2/23/06 under Analyst Estimate:
Next Earnings Date: 23-Feb-06 - Set a Reminder
Just seen an ediet commercial on television on the A&E channel. Looked good, I think this may go big.
Quote from: brandyjoco on February 18, 2006, 07:17:04 PM
Yahoo has an Earnings announcement date of 2/23/06 under Analyst Estimate:
Next Earnings Date: 23-Feb-06 - Set a Reminder
Thanks for the information brandyjoco :)
23-Feb-06 is next Thursday. Analysts estimates are for EPS of $0.05. What I find quite strange is the estimate for the 1st quarter of 2006, which is for EPS of -$0.15. Actually, due to the new food delivery service which started on January 5 (and favorable seasonality on the 1st quarter, with the new year resolutions), I expect the 1st quarter of 06 to be stronger than the previous quarter.
I wonder if these estimates aren't out of date ::)
Quote from: jlong on February 19, 2006, 06:29:35 PM
Just seen an ediet commercial on television on the A&E channel. Looked good, I think this may go big.
Cool jlong :)
DIET is playing with the $8.20 level at this moment. If the stock is able to close above this resistance level, it will be free to fly to about $10 over the short term.
Nevermind past results, what matters most is the guidance the company gives on Thursday. And I expect it to be positive guidance (certainly much better than the -$0.15 analysts are predicting) and the market will finally notice, as Michael said, this company moving from the online world to the old world of fat revenues and profits.
In part, owning DIET's stock will be like owning a nationwide theme restaurant chain, but probably with larger margins.
For trading purposes I'm expecting a breakout of the $8.20 level and will try to take profits at an overbought level (probably to buyback at a lower price). On the Long Term Portfolio I'll continue holding DIET for the long term, as I feel this is one of my most legitimate picks (1reilly has been a great help in achieving this, again, thanks a lot :))
Earnings estimale by Starmine for DIET
http://tinyurl.com/nhg7y
I don´t think we will have earnings announced this week. I recently sent investors relations e-mail asking about if they had some numbers on the Fresh Cusine and got this answer back -
"We have not given out numbers at this time but will update investors on our 4th quarter call which will be during the second week of March.
Sincerely,
John Mills"
DIET may have a new year high tomorrow.
NTRI gave a very good report and gained 12% AH.
NTRI got a nice reaction to their earnings and guidance, will now see in a couple weeks what DIET have to say. Hopefully good guidance about Fresh Cuisine.
Feb 22, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET), leveraging the Internet and technology to bring diet, fitness and healthy lifestyle solutions to market, today announced that it expects to report results for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2005, before the U.S. equity markets open on Thursday, March 9, 2006.
The company will also host a conference call for investors beginning at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day. Participants may access the call by dialing 800-259-0251 (domestic) or 617-614-3671 (international), passcode 66547668. In addition, the call will be webcast via the company's Web site at http://www.eDiets.com
Quote from: wrangler on February 20, 2006, 05:50:54 PM
Earnings estimate by Starmine for DIET
http://tinyurl.com/nhg7y
Thanks for the link wrangler, but unfortunately I couldn't read the information because I wasn't able to register the website. Can you please copy paste? Thanks a lot :)
Quote from: Athakinu on February 20, 2006, 05:53:58 PM
I don´t think we will have earnings announced this week. I recently sent investors relations e-mail asking about if they had some numbers on the Fresh Cusine and got this answer back -
"We have not given out numbers at this time but will update investors on our 4th quarter call which will be during the second week of March.
Sincerely,
John Mills"
You were absolutely right Athakinu. The alert on Yahoo was because February 23rd would be the date where the company would say when it will release earnings, not the actual earnings.
Quote from: AussieTrader on February 22, 2006, 08:57:21 PM
NTRI got a nice reaction to their earnings and guidance, will now see in a couple weeks what DIET have to say. Hopefully good guidance about Fresh Cuisine.
Feb 22, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET), leveraging the Internet and technology to bring diet, fitness and healthy lifestyle solutions to market, today announced that it expects to report results for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2005, before the U.S. equity markets open on Thursday, March 9, 2006.
The company will also host a conference call for investors beginning at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day. Participants may access the call by dialing 800-259-0251 (domestic) or 617-614-3671 (international), passcode 66547668. In addition, the call will be webcast via the company's Web site at http://www.eDiets.com
Yes, NTRI rose 13% after its earnings release. Earnings there were really awesome 8) (still a forward earnings multiple of 30).
We hope DIET follows the same path. It's funny how they don't mention Fresh Cuisine in their profile. Probably most investors are still not aware of it at the present moment.
When DIET reports the 4th quarter earnings on March 9th, what will matter most is their guidance (I hope they provide one), so we learn more about how Fresh Cuisine is doing.
Technically the stock failed to break $8.20 on the upside. Volume is decreasing and we may have an ascending triangle pattern formation in the making.
I'll continue holding the stock whatever happens.
Im liking the ascending triangle pattern forming here. Todays candle was a bullish doji, if we have a white day tomorrow bouncing off of these support levels im thinking of adding to my position in anticipation of the breakout.
-fous
I totally agree with your analysis fous :)
Just saw you're making a website, that's great, congratulations for the new project :D
fous said it all, DIET touched its ascending trendline with a doji and it is fully ready to attack and break those $8.20 on the upside. Fundamentals improving is almost a sure thing here, I can't let it go this low.
I'll continue holding DIET.
We got the white candle today i was looking for. Price action gapped down to the support line and bulls made a rally to close above yesterdays close. I'll be adding to my position on monday in anticipation of the breakout.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 24, 2006, 06:22:49 AM
Just saw you're making a website, that's great, congratulations for the new project :D
Thanks Dave im really looking foward to get it up and running. My goal is to have it up by June but could be up much sooner than that depending on how much i apply myself. So everyone join for a membership! Its Free!
-fous
Makin another nice bounce off support as well as bouncing off the 13 EMA inegrated in my RSI.
I added some shares at the market open.
-fous
You did well fous :)
1reilly ended his mission, and it was quite an informative mission :)
No reason at all to sell here, as the stock bounces from support. Results will be out on March 9th.
I'll continue holding DIET, both from a trading and investment perspective.
DIET was up a bit while the general market collapsed. Volume also increased. It is just a matter of time for the stock to breakout above $8.20.
DIET is still a $175M market cap, and NTRI is $1.52B. Both companies can be similar in revenues and profits over the long run, I believe, as they were before NTRI started its food delivery program.
I'll continue holding DIET, both on a trading and investment perspective.
Bit of an ugly day today for DIET breaking the ascending trendline line and all. Though price action may be finding support on the top downsloping trendline of the previous symmetrical triangle. None the less, i'll continue to hold in anticipation of the breakout.
GL,
-fous
These guys selling DIET on low volume don't know what they're doing. When the market is fully aware of Fresh Cuisine the stock will surely shoot higher.
I'll continue holding DIET.
Nothing new on DIET, I'll continue waiting for guidance from the company on Thursday and will keep on holding the stock.
The day we've been waiting for ;D I think this should head to 10 in the near future.
-fous
lets rock n roll on thursday (hopefully)...... :-\
Lol yah................... It was a bit of a rough day in the markets. Hopfully we finish the week strong.
yahoo quotation:
The excerpts are as follows but no links available because this was from Bloomberg (sorry for the formatting.. just copy and pasted):
"FC1 08:12 (JR)Merriman Note: DBRN_ELOS_IVIL_IED_DIET (03-07-06)
AM Research Highlights March 7, 2006...
eDiets.com, Inc. (b) (DIET)
Reiterate Buy
Price: $8.26
Market Cap (M): $185.7
FY05 Revenue Estimate (M): Previous: (No Change) Current: $53.5
FY05 EPS Estimate: Previous: (No Change) Current: $0.04
FY06 Revenue Estimate (M): Previous: (No Change) Current: $61.8
FY06 EPS Estimate: Previous: (No Change) Current: $0.27 FY06 EPS Estimate: Previous: (No Change) Current: $0.27
DIET - 4Q05 Preview - Expect Strong Results; FreshCuisine Could Surprise in
FY06
eDiets.com is scheduled to report 4Q05 results on Thursday, March 9,
before the market open.
We expect results to be in line with or ahead of our estimates of $11.9M
in revenue (up 7% Y/Y and down 12% Q/Q), $1.3M in EBITDA (up 820% Y/Y and down
42% Q/Q), and $0.05 in EPS (up 5 cents Y/Y and down 4 cents Q/Q).
Key metrics. For the 4Q05 we expect gross subscriber additions of
70,000, customer acquisition cost of $70, and average revenue per subscriber per
week of $3.98. We believe that our 4Q05 assumptions are very conservative,
particularly with respect to CAC, which is likely to be closer to $60 rather
than $70.
FreshCuisine. In January, eDiets.com launched a meal delivery service.
We currently have minimal expectations; however, this service could become
meaningful starting in 2Q06. In fact, our checks indicate that the service is
off to a strong start already in 1Q06. If successful, FreshCuisine has the
potential to become the biggest revenue driver for the company and could lead to
substantial upside to our estimates.
FY06 outlook. Our FY06 projections include revenue growth of 16%, which
is at the low end of guidance for a minimum of 15-20% growth. The company has
not guided for specific EPS range yet, except to state that it expects to be
cash flow- and earnings-positive for the full year. We believe our FY06
estimates could have upside from the FreshCuisine product.
Valuation. The stock trades at 25x and 15x EV/EBITDA and 31x and 17x P/E
based on our FY06 and FY07 estimates. We believe that if eDiets.com is
successful with some of its marketing plans, advertising sales initiatives,
FreshCuisine launch, and new licensing agreements, the stock should see
multiples expansion on our FY07 estimates and trade closer to $10.00 or 18x
EV/EBITDA (2007) and 21x P/E (2007). However, success with FreshCuisine could
accelerate the company's revenue growth rate and push valuation into the mid
teens.
-- Richard Fetyko (646) 292-1446
[email protected]"
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=1607835762&tid=diet&sid=1607835762&mid=5212
Thanks for that post la-onda :)
«FreshCuisine. In January, eDiets.com launched a meal delivery service.
We currently have minimal expectations; however, this service could become
meaningful starting in 2Q06. In fact, our checks indicate that the service is
off to a strong start already in 1Q06. If successful, FreshCuisine has the
potential to become the biggest revenue driver for the company and could lead to
substantial upside to our estimates.»
This is exactly what were expecting.
Everything is on track for DIET to be an outstanding pick, due to FreshCuisine, yet analysts still have minimal expectations.
I have a cold so unfortunately these updates will also be minimal :P
Looks like somebody knows something or is it just a bluff.
10:00 conference call
uc.
I saw this rebound what a rebound ! Hopefully we see new highs tomorrow !
I just found out today that fresh cuisine is supplied by a company by the name of Purfoods. They have a website by that name listing all of their meals. So my question is, who is actually making the money on fresh cuisine?.........if ediet isn't actually producing this product wouldn't this affect the valuation of the company....?
Great day for DIET. Support levels holding up excellent. Bouncing off the downsloping trendline yet once again and managing to close above the ascending trendline. Technically DIET is shaping up great. Now we just need to hope for a positive reaction to earnings tomorrow morning. I'll be up at 6am to await the action >:D
-fous
Quote from: molly on March 08, 2006, 07:02:59 PM
I just found out today that fresh cuisine is supplied by a company by the name of Purfoods. They have a website by that name listing all of their meals. So my question is, who is actually making the money on fresh cuisine?.........if ediet isn't actually producing this product wouldn't this affect the valuation of the company....?
Hello molly :)
No, it's natural they're not the producers, since their business is running a website, they don't have the necessary skills (or means) to produce great meals in a large scale.
DIET buys the meals from that company at $X, and then sells it to consumers at $Y. The difference between $Y and $X is their profit margin. I believe this way they have less costs than if they had set the production for themselves.
I'll come back to DIET after the earnings release, we hope it is a positive one :)
Guidance isn't particularly stellar, 8 to 10% over 2005. Assume they are under promising to over deliver. Q1 '06 $1M of revenue contribution from Fresh Cuisine (forecasted). They do anticipate at least to double EPS 2006 over 2005. Market will now decide..... ;)
eDiets.com(R) Reports Q4 and Full Year 2005 Results
PR Newswire - March 09, 2006 09:05
Increased Per-Subscriber Revenues, Greater Ad Efficiencies Drive Higher Profits
DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla., March 9, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET), leveraging the Internet and technology to bring diet, fitness and healthy lifestyle solutions to market, today announced results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2005.
2005 Financial Highlights:
* Revenues increased 18.2% to $53.7 million
* Sales and marketing expense declined from 89% of revenues in 2004 to
68% in 2005
* Net income was $1.3 million, or $0.06 per diluted share
Q405 Financial Highlights:
* Revenues increased 8.5% to $12.1 million
* Sales and marketing expense declined from 66% of revenues in Q404 to
58% in Q405
* Net income totaled $1.5 million, or $0.07 per diluted share
Ciaran G. McCourt, President and CEO of eDiets.com, commented, "During 2005 we delivered strong revenue growth by increasing the revenue yield of a subscriber to our online diet plans while lowering our subscriber acquisition cost. As a result, average revenue per subscriber per week grew 11% for the year while sales and marketing expense as a percentage of revenues declined by 21 points."
Revenues for the fourth quarter of 2005 were $12.1 million, an 8.5% increase from $11.1 million in the comparable period last year. Net income for the quarter was $1.5 million, compared to a loss of ($0.1) million for the fourth quarter of 2004. Earnings per diluted share were $0.07 for the fourth quarter of 2005, compared to $0.00 for the same period last year.
For the twelve months ended December 31, 2005, revenues increased 18.2% to $53.7 million versus $45.4 million for 2004. For the full year 2005, the company earned $1.3 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, versus a loss of ($9.9) million, or $(0.49) per diluted share, in 2004.
Total expenses decreased 5.2% to $10.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2005 from $11.2 million in the same period last year. For the full year 2005, expenses fell 5.4% to $52.5 million from $55.5 million in 2004. The decline in expenses was mainly related to advertising expense, which decreased steadily throughout the year.
Mr. McCourt noted, "We are adopting a multi-faceted revenue model, with more emphasis on e-commerce, advertising sales, and licensing activities, in order to capture a larger share of the diet, fitness and healthy lifestyle market going forward. As an example, we recently entered the meal delivery service market with the launch of FreshCuisine(TM), a chef-prepared fresh meal delivery service. Even though we are in the early stages of this controlled rollout consumers' initial response to our new service has been positive."
2006 Outlook:
For the full year 2006 eDiets.com is budgeting an 8% to 10% revenue increase and decreased ad spending relative to 2005. The revenue increase is predicated on being able to increase revenue per subscriber and to generate incremental non-subscription revenues, primarily from the company's new meal delivery business.
For the year the company expects that a mid- to high single-digit decline in subscription revenues will be more than offset by a doubling to tripling of non-subscription revenues. Approximately half of forecasted non-subscription revenues are expected to come from the meal delivery business. After non-cash stock based compensation expense eDiets.com expects to at least double its fully diluted earnings per share in 2006 compared to 2005.
For the first quarter of 2006 eDiets.com expects consolidated revenue growth of 4% to 6% compared to the first quarter of 2005, with a modest decline in subscription revenues being more than offset by an increase in non- subscription revenues, including approximately $1 million in gross revenues related to the meal delivery business.
eDiets.com typically invests a significant percentage of its annual advertising budget in the first fiscal quarter and correspondingly posts a net loss while building its subscriber base. The company expects to do the same in the first quarter of 2006. However, since advertising spending in the quarter is expected to decrease relative to the first quarter of 2005 the company anticipates a reduced operating loss compared to the loss in the comparable prior year period of ($0.16) per diluted share.
In conclusion, Mr. McCourt noted, "In 2006 we are looking forward to being able to more aggressively invest in new product research and development while growing net income and thereby improving both short- and long-term shareholder returns."
The company beat expectations but guidance wasn't as strong as probably many would expect. Fresh Cuisine is still in its early stages.
I believe the company is underestimating Fresh Cuisine's potential.
I know people are selling off DIET in the pre-market, but I'll continue holding the stock, both on a long term and trading perspective.
what a great thing to wake up to...............................down 23% :-X
I have bought more @ 6.05 $ >:D
Quote from: la-onda on March 09, 2006, 09:45:10 AM
I have bought more @ 6.05 $ >:D
Here I am looking and freaking(so to speak) and you buy more!
Cool move, I love it and this site!
I hope it works out big time la-onda
uc.
Have not been folowing this one lately but way below B bands so for short term trade the $6 area seems decent http://tinyurl.com/9n946
If they can earn $0.60 per share in 2006 and the growth rate is 10%, they can still be classified as a growth company. But the expected growth rate is not impressive.
So if you multiply $0.60 x 10, then you arrive at $6.00 price value.
That is why today's price is down to around $6.00.
The big institutional players have a computerized formula to quickly calculate its fair market price based on what the company announced.
Also they indicate the 1Q 2006 will be a losing quarter.
With big down, the boucing back will happen but may need to wait for a while before taking a position.
DIET is like a diet for my portfolio. My port is skinnier today thanks to DIET :(
I hope David is right and both the market and the company are wrong.
Has everyone here read the Mike & Diana's mission thread? Scroll to the bottom of page 2. Molly discovered the Fresh Cuisine program comes from Purfoods and that you could just order direct from Purfoods.com. I checked into it and it's pretty much the same price either way you do it. eDiet needs to make sure that buying from them is a more compelling offer than buying the same food from Purfoods.
Quote from: shawFund on March 09, 2006, 10:55:08 AM
If they can earn $0.60 per share in 2006 and the growth rate is 10%, they can still be classified as a growth company. But the expected growth rate is not impressive.
My impression from the conference call is that they like their new found successes and this is no longer a matter of high growth for them. They like who they are and want to stay in business for the longer term. It's obviously not great for the short term investor as witnessed today, but now I will have to look at the company from a different perspective(I do hate having to do that mid-stream, I am trying harder and harder to avoid it). That said, they held there cards close to their chests and I think they played it pretty smart. Just some thoughts!
uc.
It appears that Molly and I are going to need to continue our programs for some time. I said in my mission thread that I wondered if DIET really understood their demographics at this time. Usedcasting indicated that he felt they have a business plan they're comfortable with and I must take issue with that. I think the reluctance to issue stronger guidance is based on their need to fine tune the FC program. Molly's comments about outsourcing the food were not as important as her comment related to flexibility in ordering meals. I think DIET will fine tune to offer flexibilty but this may take time. Are they a complete health forum that offers a total fitness program, or a source of dietary food. I have indicated that their market place is much broader than dietary food. Many singles, seniors, and healthy food addicts should be looking at this food service. However, they need to offer flexibilty in the ordering process.
I'm guessing most of the stops got taken out today.(humor)
I agree that this company is now a work in progress.
I think it's going to become a part of my long term porfolio. I have two long term portfolios, one contains stocks that I chose for their long term appeal, the other contains my mistakes that gap down 25% and I'm too stubborn to sell.
I won't be adding to this position until I see some real numbers, Management's reluctance to do that today could be they don't have any. The conference call could have been a real red flag.
My goodness this stock has cost me alot of time and money.
Quote from: 1reilly on March 09, 2006, 12:29:23 PM
I think it's going to become a part of my long term porfolio. I have two long term portfolios, one contains stocks that I chose for their long term appeal, the other contains my mistakes that gap down 25% and I'm too stubborn to sell.
That is what I am going to do here too. I took a major haircut on this one today as I was averaged in at $7.5 between long term and short term portfolios with a bit overweight in both compared to my usual buy in because of my perception of good market fundamentals (the average American needs to diet no question) and company fundamentals in addition to the bullish chart.
So this joins INSM for me as a long term investment, I suppose I will have to hold it for a year to recap the loss. I do now believe in the January effect for these kinds of stocks, so a year from now it should be back up and then it can be sold without short term capital gains tax (assuming its up).
For today I am just hoping it closes above a 6.04 support level, and would love to see a rally to $6.5 support somehow (wishful thinking, I know).
Good luck to all still holding!
QuoteI have two long term portfolios, one contains stocks that I chose for their long term appeal, the other contains my mistakes that gap down 25% and I'm too stubborn to sell.
I think most of us have those types of long-term portfolios. Looking at the 3SoF Long Term portfolio, it looks like it mostly contains the latter kind of stocks -- the mistakes. It wasn't David's intent but that's the way it has turned out. 3 of the 5 stocks are down over 10%.
Quote from: 1reilly on March 09, 2006, 12:29:23 PM
I think it's going to become a part of my long term porfolio. I have two long term portfolios, one contains stocks that I chose for their long term appeal, the other contains my mistakes that gap down 25% and I'm too stubborn to sell.
I don't have a long term portfolio. I guess nows the time to start one............................. >:D
-fous
For me I always put a stop loss after my trade around 7%.
If you relieve the company is sound, keep close eye on it and re-enter it later at a better price.
Holding no matter what happens is another strategy.
I never bought DIET. I may start to have a position in the next few days.
shawFund
I don't know what you're getting at here. If you had a stop in this morning the best price was 6.94. I doubt many stops even got filled there. Admittedly that's a hell of alot better than where it is right now. My point is keeping a close eye on this one made very little difference today. I won't buy a falling knife but my bet is this company establishes a new bottom and that's where I make a new investment decision. It sounds to me as though you've been around for awhile so I'm sure you've experienced these kind of ugly responses to other stocks. My experience is to let the dust settle and in effect that's what your doing by waiting a few days. My point is 7% was impossible today so why bring it up.
Best bet might be to keep loading up at intervals (aka average down) until it bottoms and sell the bounce. Like Metro pointed out earlier, DIET is way below the Bollinger bands.
Going to play Monday morning quarterback now, I have to question how DIET got put in the long term portfolio in the first place. It reacted to the earnings today the way a biotech reacts when a drug fails. Our long term holds shouldn't be that volatile. Something along the lines of a MSFT is more worthy of a long term hold because it's bulletproof. Bad news will send it down 2%. DIET turned out to be a house of cards. Like OTC stocks, it's apparantly the kind of stock you trade, not the type you buy and hold. Unfortunately we figured this out a day too late.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 09, 2006, 03:59:12 PM
Best bet might be to keep loading up at intervals (aka average down) until it bottoms and sell the bounce. Like Metro pointed out earlier, DIET is way below the Bollinger bands.
Going to play Monday morning quarterback now, I have to question how DIET got put in the long term portfolio in the first place. It reacted to the earnings today the way a biotech reacts when a drug fails. Our long term holds shouldn't be that volatile. Something along the lines of a MSFT is more worthy of a long term hold because it's bulletproof. Bad news will send it down 2%. DIET turned out to be a house of cards. Like OTC stocks, it's apparantly the kind of stock you trade, not the type you buy and hold. Unfortunately we figured this out a day too late.
Since I lost all my February profit in DIET today, I feel a bit the same way. However, we do still need to see if there is a bounce, because one thing that I believe is at play here that caused the biotech like loss you mention is that they reported low guidance in volatile downtrending market. For example, look at what has been happening to larger more established semiconductor stocks like TXN the other day (1 cent below consensus earning causing a big drop), and National Semiconductor NSM today. NSM had a great quarter, and it lost 3% today!:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060309:MTFH72581_2006-03-09_21-15-02_N09188396&symbol=NSM.N&rpc=44
So this thing was like a perfect storm happening when it did. If we had been in an up market, I think the damage would have been far less. The long red candle today means it can go even lower tomorrow, but if employment numbers are good tomorrow and the market recovers, I think DIET does too. Of course, its still not going to be enough for a long time to come to counter today's losses...
Quote from: 1reilly on March 09, 2006, 03:36:14 PM
shawFund
I don't know what you're getting at here. If you had a stop in this morning the best price was 6.94. I doubt many stops even got filled there. Admittedly that's a hell of alot better than where it is right now. My point is keeping a close eye on this one made very little difference today. I won't buy a falling knife but my bet is this company establishes a new bottom and that's where I make a new investment decision. It sounds to me as though you've been around for awhile so I'm sure you've experienced these kind of ugly responses to other stocks. My experience is to let the dust settle and in effect that's what your doing by waiting a few days. My point is 7% was impossible today so why bring it up.
Sorry for the interpretation of my post.
I have been burned many times. Recent one is on SNDK. Nov 21 2005 it gapped down from $56 to $46. But my shares stopped out at open at $54. I only lost 2 dollars and I re-entered the stock after it tested low of $46 twice and bounced back.
For DIET, if I placed stop-loss, it will be stopped out at open. When to buy it back?
Normally I wait for it to retest its low. That is, after bottomed, it bounced back and normally it will re-test its low or even lower before returning to uptrend. This is to let weak hands shaked out.
Severl examples:
1. STX last year
2. SNDK last year
3. SYNA last year
SNDK:
hi,
sorry for the loss today.
i was in with gtcb recently when the same thing happened to me.
i never play earnings any more because it is anyone's guess where it could go after the report. unless your an investor rather than a trader it is better to get out just before .
jmho
thanks,
maxi
Continue: SYNA and ACLS
Thebest topic may be: HOW TO BUY ON GAP DOWN.
All the four companies are very good SNDK, SYNA, STX, ACLS, but mm don't want you to make money by playing tricks on it.
When most people are out, the stock starts a non-stoppable up.
DIET is a good company and is making good money. It had gapped down today just like it happened for SNDK, SYNA, ACLS stocks .... before.
I expect it may have the same chart pattern and will wait for the second bottom before taking my position (it may take anywhere from 1 week to 1 month).
I do not have shares of DIET.
Even I have, I will be the first to exit today at open.
In that case, I will be worry free now and wait for better buying price.
shawFund
I thought we were probably on the same wave length. I happen to agree with all the posters here. I think we all have to work together on this new project, because finding some profit here is going to be my new mission. Everyone is looking for the first bounce, I'm going to be looking for the double bottom. The first bounce is going to find a ton of sellers in my opinion. Diet just got crossed off a lot of investors list. If this isn't a house of cards we'll make money on the long side. If it is I'm going to get it back on the short side. I will bet you this. The fundamentalists won't be back until they see real numbers, the Ta boys and girls will control this stock near term. So you TA ers get to work and keep us all posted.
Mike
Only two comments...
1. About this "... if employment numbers are good tomorrow and the market recovers .." , if the numbers are too good ..will have another red sea , because "rates fear"
2. This is an old news but after today reaction, it has a lot of sense..
Odyssey Value Advisors LLC Suggests eDiets Board Engage Banker to Sell Company
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2005 8:01 AM
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/news/articles.asp?guid={AC801780-C4B0-4920-92B2-D3690B58089F}&newsid=850400466&orig=&time=&symb=DIET&sid=178505&source=htx\http2_mw
Look at the beauty of this chart :D I lost more money today than i have ever lost in a day. But i still have a smile on my face. I don't let my emotions get involved in trading and find it easier to laugh at the extremity of the situation rather than throw a fit and be stressed out about it ;D
From a TA perspective this chart is rediculous, Like someone said earliar today, this crashed as if it was a biotech who released a PR of there drug being worthless. Price action managed to close just above the 200 ema so we may see support there. Though with such a powerful move downward on heavy volume im afraid DIET will move farther down. Next support level i see is the previous ascending triangle neckline at 5.26 which may be a good place from someone looking to pick up shares on the rebound. Im hoping to see this rebound though don't expect anything exciting to happen in the near future. Once this rallies again i believe there will be alot of selling pressure from people trying to get out of there positions.
I almost considered selling my position short at the open though thought people were over reacting to the news in premarket and figured it would stabalize intraday or have a hammer candle, anything but keep on dropping. But oh well, woulda shoulda coulda.
Good luck everyone,
-fous
I was not in Diet today, but added at what I thought was a pretty comortable 6.15 as it crept up, what I thought was up anyway. I have been roasted, I mean ROASTED on earnings, and although you can win, it sure as heck seems to me you lose more. At least I have. I don't like the monday morning quarterback thing. There was ample time time to post critiques of the pick and the portfolio before it fell. I am sure it was intended as analysis, but insm and diet could have gone the other way.
Bill Cosby, my favorite comedian once was talking about posting a "dip" sign 1 inch before you hit the dip. He said sarcastically, "if you really want to help somebody, put the dip sign at the bottom. "You have just hit a dip". Thats pretty much the same quality of analysis after the fact on DIET. JMHO
Plain and simple, the long term portfolio is not for MSFTs in my opinion. It is for long term growth stocks, that carry a bunch of risk, that are not going to be traded on panic.
As for never buying falling knives, I have had a heck of a lot better success with them than I have chasing the stars. The last one in dies, and when you chase the stars you have an excellent chance of having it fall right on top of you. I will admit however that it does cut both ways, and that it is the very essence of what makes the market interesting.
Quote from: fous on March 09, 2006, 09:25:08 PM
Look at the beauty of this chart :D I lost more money today than i have ever lost in a day. But i still have a smile on my face. I don't let my emotions get involved in trading and find it easier to laugh at the extremity of the situation rather than throw a fit and be stressed out about it ;D
Agreed, ts all a perspective thing. I went to the gym just now and feel GREAT! I lost over $4K today on DIET, but back when I was "all in" with Novavax, I lost $15K in a day! I got on a plane to Tokyo with the market still open and watched the next day as that bad boy dropped me to $26K down as I got on board and was powerless to know where the dust would settle when I arrived in Tokyo. I sure didnt sleep on the plane that time :'( But I stuck it out for a week checking the market every night and there was a nice rebound and I wound up 12K ahead. I doubt there will be any happy endings here with DIET like that near term, but compared to that day today now feels not nearly so bad. I know I can trade my way back out of this hole, it just reinforces my will to do better, learn more, and perservere. I wish the same for all of you my fellow bretheren of the great DIET crash of 2006 :)
Also, this may even out for me because I was gambling "Mad Money" on NMTI until today. Because I lost in DIET, I wont allow myself the luxury of that, and if NMTI drops on Monday, I would have lost nearly the same amount of money.
Support 5.13, but I wont catch this falling knife.
Stick a fork in DIET, this dog is dead for the forseeable future. I had top pull the trigger with over $5000 in losses. I was expecting a nice ER and pop in price similar to what we saw from NTRI and WTW, but the truth is out. DIET is no NTRI.
I won't be surprised to see this go back into the 4's where it started this run. CC was weak indeed . When asked about the early success if Fresh Cuisine, these guys were vague as hell. What a depressing site to see the price go down as the CC wernt on. I've lost confidence in these guy after hearing them talk. I think traders will see no reason to buy this stock now until we see some great numbers in Q1.
As they say, Money talks and BS walks.
Ascending triangles??? Promising product?? What went wrong??
This company is no where near the leader in the field.....It is not NTRI, Weight Watchers...it is just a dinky little company with a dream.
I should have stuck to the leaders in the field.
The numbers....also pie-in-the-the sky....no great earnings no fantastic sales.............vague information from the management. No reason to have had confidence here.
Just a copy of NTRI's successful food delivery.
And earnings....I must have been on drugs to think that in this crappy earnings environment and this really bearish week that any earnings, positive or negative, would have a positive impact on this stock. The NTRI momentum disappeared weeks ago.
I only had a tiny amount of shares, but I still think of myself as smart enough to not fall for all the hype.
An expensive lesson they will not teach me in business school.........
Stick with the leaders, look for a better chart, look for proven growth. be cautious during earnings for a company with a rehash of a successful new product. Also I have to be wary of the advice I take and depend more on my own research. The numbers were not there and everyone was trying to convince themselves that there was hope. Hindsite is showing me this was not a good move - obviously.
If I wanted to lose weight, I would go to the biggest company with the most ads that has the best track record to get my food (if I was undisciplined and too lazy to make my own food).
I'm glad I have a lot of company that learned a lesson too.
Quote from: la-onda on March 09, 2006, 09:45:10 AM
I have bought more @ 6.05 $ >:D
sometimes gambling is punished :-X :-\
lesson learned continues again in 2006
over and out
O.
Another lesson to be learned from this is never break the rules. My rule is to never hold a stock into earnings. I must have fell for the hype and held here. I got my butt handed to me.
I could blame it all on David Randolph, after all, his instructions were to hold this turd.
But I take full responsibility myself. No matter what David may or may not reccomend, it is MY decision what to do with my positions.
Treat each loss as a learning experience. It's the only positive I can get out of this blunder.
Anyone receive the daily update this morning?
I just checked my trading history in this stock and found that I bought the stock 4 times between Jan 9th and Feb 6th and traded around my core position 3 times. I was left holding my core position going into this earnings report and I don't like the results any better than any of you. However, There are a lot of newbies that have been caught in this stock and now is when they really need our help. Yesterday this stock traded 1/3 of its float and crushed all the near term support lines. Today is Fri and I believe we'll see the wait and see attitude from even true believers. What is important is this company didn't say the business plan isn't working, to the contrary they guided to 100% growth. Does this far far short of expectations? Yes. What's lost is that they beat street expectations in both Revs and EPS in the quarter. Did the CEO stink up the conference call? Yes. I'm certainly the last one to stand up for this performance but it was his 1st one. Did they totally fumble the ball related to guidance on FC? Yes. However, I had said in my mission posts that I could not believe that they really understood their market place, so in reality, I would have considered glowing statements about this product fluff.
Here's what I'm going to do: I'm going to try to find a bottom here and try to work my way out of this position. I can work with a company that beat the street in a quarter and projects 100% growth. Is this a dead horse for 1 quarter? probably. I understand this venting that's going on, this isn't suppose to happen to us. But this quarter and the guidance lead me to believe I can make some money here. Just want to give a different perspective here and would agree with anyone who says that I should leave this debacle. I'm going to fight back time is on my side.
I cannot blame anyone but myself. I have control of my account, no one else. I was the greedy one with high expectations - and looking back at the initial analysis, it was not that convincing.
I might as well go to G's Place and buy some penny stocks - or Mega-Millions tickets.
(just venting - for the next week I can see the DIET thread becoming a place for whining and finger pointing. It is ok, just keep it clean. If anyone wants to blame me, that is fine too. For angry yelling, call "Twin Donuts" on Rockaway Pkwy in Queens, NY - ask for Ricky)
1reilly, I agree with you on your thoughts about the conference call. I've decided to stick around. I can't decide whether or not I will add to my position. The tough part is determining whether to believe if they are for real, its sort of a bricks and mortar thing for me. I believe their numbers say they are real but we will see.
uc.
Meant to put up chart with last post.
As I posted below, if the markets rebounded today on good news from the employment numbers (which they did) then DIET can rebound too now that those numbers are out. As I said, I believe part of the drastic drop was due to overall negative market sentiment, and other stocks like National Semi that posted a blowout quarter, and are larger and more established, lost 3% yesterday. It wasnt a good day to post earnings.
Of course, having been burnt as bad as I have been by this stock by holding though earnings, I will not add to my position. However, I would definitely be a buyer of the stock at these levels if I had not already been holding, downside appears to be limiited to me (if I am right this is an over-reaction, but hey, I was wrong to hold in the first place lol), and I believe it will hold the 5.13 support today. Its at 5.15 as I type this.
Snowcat
That's what I'm trying to prevent here. You are a great contributor to this site and don't think there aren't alot of us who don't appreciate you. I want to emphasize that we need to focus on where we go from here. Actually those on this thread have plenty of experience and know we didn't follow our own guidelines. Hell we all knew 6.53 was important and I hate myself for not reacting to that level. I think I was in shock because as Michael said this stock acted as a busted Bio. Not expected. I like others thought the open was an overreaction. How stupid was that, I'm just not supposed to think that way. usedcasting feels the same way I do. Neither of us knows if we will add to this position but I can tell you that if I do I will treat this stock as though I've never heard of it. I'm going to look to see if I can make a technical case and a fundamental case at these new price levels. If I can't I won't add and as I posted before my current holding will only be appraised again when I see the next quarter. If I see something or do something I'll post it and what I want is pro or con for the rest of you to post what you see. I suspect there are a lot of members looking for real help here.
Quote from: netfishmademerich on March 10, 2006, 11:40:33 AM
Anyone receive the daily update this morning?
I didnt get one yet, and havent seen any updates from David so I assume he is still sick, hope he gets better soon!
If you want to see how vague responses from management impact a stock and show what is really going on, check out the BRVO thread.
I am just saying that there are better, more predictable stocks out there to invest in.
This is a gamble.
Snowcat Out! Let me go haunt another thread.
Maybe if I got my daily newsletter, this would not have happened.
I think that this could come down to around $4.50 to touch the long-term ascending trendline.
If it breaks that support line, then it's going to be in trouble all the way down to $3
I think that if it does rebound from that support line, I would definately start a position.
FYI: I Do not own shares of Diet.
Excuse me,, I INSIST with my yesterday post (at least after I read the letter I made up my mind and sell) as I don't see any strategic here..
*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-**-*-*
This is an old news but after yesterday & today reactions, it makes a lot of sense..
Odyssey Value Advisors LLC Suggests eDiets Board Engage Banker to Sell Company
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2005 8:01 AM
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/news/articles.asp?guid={AC801780-C4B0-4920-92B2-D3690B58089F}&newsid=850400466&orig=&time=&symb=DIET&sid=178505&source=htx\http2_mw
Dear eDiets Board of Directors:
Odyssey Value Advisors, LLC owns 330,000 shares of common stock or 1.5 % of eDiets (DIET) . We would welcome and encourage you to hire a nationally recognized investment bank to immediately explore the sale of the company and to maximize shareholder value. While we realize that decisions of this magnitude are made at the board level, we would encourage this action now. In our opinion, a sale should be considered now because management has had difficulty communicating its value creation strategy to the market. As a result, the market has not been able to reward the stock with the appropriate multiple. Most importantly, there are strategic buyers eager to acquire comparable companies and they are paying multiples substantially higher than e-Diets current equity valuation.
etc etc etc the letter continue
I've added to my position a few times and my breakeven price is now $6.17. I'm not stressed about it. DIET has the numbers behind it to support a solid rebound from this level. Under $5 now, WTF? It will just require some patience. I think it will see $8 again in one year's time.
Revenue
2002 $29.6M
2003 $38.3M
2004 $45.4M
2005 $53.7M
Revenue growth, profit growth, cash flow positive, 13M share float, forward PE of 18. Fundamentally it has what it takes to let me sleep soundly at night. If DIET had numbers (or lack of numbers) like an SVA, INSM, CPST, ALTI, BCON, I would be worried because those stocks ultimately have nothing besides hype and momentum to back them up.
Quote from: calguy on March 10, 2006, 10:45:37 AM
I could blame it all on David Randolph, after all, his instructions were to hold this turd.
But I take full responsibility myself. No matter what David may or may not reccomend, it is MY decision what to do with my positions.
That first sentence cracked me up. Thanks Cal for the chuckle. David is the shepherd and we are his sheeple. I would like to see David double down on his position. He loved the stock at $8 and it is trading at a steep discount now. If a stock is truly worthy of being considered long-term, the common practice is to add aggressively when you get discounts like this.
Lucas Scott
Good comments. Clear, supported and a plan. Had someone posted just the opposite opinion I would support them also.
I've just received an e-mail as I am sure the rest of you have. I'll be very interested in the future of this site.
I sympathize with all of you who are long. This is a lousy position to be in, and I know that it hurts.
Those of you who were following the HGSI thread last autumn will remember that one-day whacking of about 25% I took when the stock gapped down on me. My choice, which I posted before the open, was to sell at the market at the open, no questions asked. That will always be my personal choice. I want OUT in that situation, and I want to move on and use the money to produce gains on other trades.
Since it's too late for that if you're still long, I like what shawfund suggested yesterday with his charts, and mike )1really) is suggesting here today (applauded).
Quote from: 1reilly on March 10, 2006, 12:29:58 PM
Neither of us knows if we will add to this position but I can tell you that if I do I will treat this stock as though I've never heard of it.
I like that, Mike. "Don't get married to a stock." At this point, you're trying to manage the position in a buisness-like manner, and its best to put the emotions aside.
Quote
I'm going to look to see if I can make a technical case and a fundamental case at these new price levels. If I can't I won't add
I like that very much. You're not getting married to the stock, and "throwing good money after bad."
In the examples of charts that shawfund put up yesterday, they all bottomed, and it all "worked out" fine. That also was the case with HGSI, but I had sold.
Looking at the HGSI chart below, it's easy with the benefit of hindsight to conclude, "Gee, if I had just held on, the stock bottomed only six days after I sold it!" True, but we're looking at only one stock. I can show you many, many charts were the stock gapped down, and years later,
still hasn't recovered..
Think about this: If you "double down" every time you take a hit in a stock, sometimes it will work out, sometimes it won't. During the years ahead, you're going to face this situation again, when a stock you own is down 10%...15%...20%...25%...30%...
Let's say that you "double down" in those situations, and it works out 75% of the time (I'm being generous). 25% of the time, it doesn't.
After awhile, you're holding
all of the 25% of the stocks that didn't work out, and you're handcuffed. All of your portfolio eventually will become losers over time, if you employ that strategy on a regular basis, and if you keep adding money...same thing will happen "over time."
If you're going to double down this soon after yesterday's gap down (and I strongly urge you not to do it as a strategy on
any stock), at least try to do it at what "should be" support, like a 200DMA...or a 50% or 618% retracement...or some trendline, etc. Something that is "logical," where you have a reasonable expection that the market is going to respond there, and take the stock higher.
But, gosh, if you do that, I would advise putting a low-risk stop under your second entry so that you don't let the trade turn into a disaster.
I applauded Oliver (laonda) for getting out of his "double down," and I'm going to applaud him again for posting it publicly. It's hard to admit our mistakes to ourselves, let alone in public, but doing it really helps the rest of us to be honest with ourselves and with each other.
A number of you already have posted that you already have doubled down, and I want to be very clear that I never would criticize any of you for doing it, and I sincerely hope that it works on DIET. I also understand why you did it, but please consider my comments about employing "doubling down" as a regular strategy in your trading.
I think that most experienced traders would tell you that if doubling down on losing trades
isn't the "#1 Sure Way To The Poorhouse," it has to comes close. The stock already is in trouble, or you wouldn't be doubling down, and "troubled stocks" aren't the kind that we want to be playing.
Also, keep in mind that if you're new to the market since October, 2002 and have had some success with doubling down, you've also been in a bull market. Wait until we move into a bear market, and we will, at some point. The stocks that get hit the hardest in a bear market aren't the strong stocks; it's the ones that already are weak.
"Cheap stocks get a lot cheaper."
If you've decided to hold, I think it's wise to wait for a pattern to emerge, as others here have suggested. In HGSI, there were three great opportunies to get long again, but it took a quarter, just as Mike is suggesting:
1. The Symmetrical Triangle breakout in early January.
2. The Ascending Triangle breakout in mid-January.
3. The pullback to the Ascending Triangle in -mid February
All of them produced gains of better than 25%.
Good luck with DIET, everybody. I know it's tough to take a hit like this. I've been there.
Quote
Quote from: 1reilly on March 10, 2006, 03:22:08 PM
I've just received an e-mail as I am sure the rest of you have. I'll be very interested in the future of this site.
I'll take a guess that the longer-term portfolio will be liquidated and pennies will be back in the SOF portfolio.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 10, 2006, 02:49:30 PM
I've added to my position a few times and my breakeven price is now $6.17.
Luke,
Geez, I didn't read that before I posted, and I apologize if it looked like I was "taking a shot" at you. I wouldn't do that, and besides, I'm hardly in a position to "throw stones" at anyone with my own experience of doubling down. I got myself into a heap of trouble doing it, which is why I posted those comments.
I'm giving you an applause for looking like I insulted you.
Hey Melf - no worries. I didn't take any offense when I read your post. I'll take the easily earned applaud though! 8) I was more fascinated by the HGSI chart. That was a crushing gap down but it only took 5 months to fill the gap. I envision the DIET chart looking similar as soon as end of summer or as late as next January.
I agree with what you said about doubling down being a route to the poor house. It depends on one's diversification. I have a very diversified approach. When I buy a stock it is usually about 3% of my portfolio. 2 - 2.5% for penny stocks. I am probably too diversified, but I like to buy stocks the way some women like buying shoes. I'm a stockaholic. When I buy I always feel I have left myself room to add a second position if I want to average up, average down, or buy a subsequent breakout.
When a stock drops as far as DIET did, adding a second position is a minor hit to my capital. Say I had 3% of my port in DIET. It lost 30% yesterday so now it's only 2% of my port. Doubling down on it makes it 4% of my port. Only slightly bigger than an average position for me.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 10, 2006, 05:23:46 PM
I was more fascinated by the HGSI chart. That was a crushing gap down but it only took 5 months to fill the gap. I envision the DIET chart looking similar as soon as end of summer or as late as next January.
Luke,
I sure hope that DIET works out like HGSI.
Quote
I am probably too diversified, but I like to buy stocks the way some women like buying shoes. I'm a stockaholic.
I don't think that you're too diversified. You seem to follow you stocks very well. You're not intraday trading off tick charts.
Love the "stockaholic." I'm one, too. I llive, sleep, eat, and breathe it. ;D >:D
Quote
When a stock drops as far as DIET did, adding a second position is a minor hit to my capital. Say I had 3% of my port in DIET. It lost 30% yesterday so now it's only 2% of my port. Doubling down on it makes it 4% of my port. Only slightly bigger than an average position for me.
I think that's great. As long as you don't get "handcuffed," like I did, sitting on a bunch of "dead money," watching do nothing, day after day after day after day, you're doing fine. You're controlling your portfolio. It isn't controlling you.
I hate to have to give you another applause, you little smart ass, but I absolutely have to. Applause.
EDIT: It said I have to wait one hour. I'm signing off, so you get the applause tomorrow. ;)
Quote from: netfishmademerich on March 10, 2006, 04:22:21 PM
Quote from: 1reilly on March 10, 2006, 03:22:08 PM
I've just received an e-mail as I am sure the rest of you have. I'll be very interested in the future of this site.
I'll take a guess that the longer-term portfolio will be liquidated and pennies will be back in the SOF portfolio.
From the email:
QuoteDuring the next few days 3SOF will be re-organized into a new structure, also with new team members in a way we think will make this service much stronger.
My guess is the structure change and the new team members are related. I like a good mystery. Maybe David is considering forming a council ("The Council of Elder Traders"), and that council uses majority rule to buy or sell a stock. Or maybe he divides 3SOF into several different portfolios each run by a selected trader. For example, 5 hand-picked traders including himself, each responsible for 20% of the portfolio and with discretion to hold up to 4 stocks in their portfolio at any one time, with no overlapping of picks. Salary dependent on portfolio performance.
QuoteIt said I have to wait one hour. I'm signing off, so you get the applause tomorrow.
Dammit in that case you better give me two! ;) jk
Just like many of you folks here I am a happy loser on diet these days... turned 10% profit into a big loss. Although I am sure there is no perfect remedy against such losses, we should attempt to make some simple trading rules as we go along. The rules can evolve and people with different experience can contribute. For instance:
1) Advice to take profit at a certain point dictated by the TA
2) Close profitable positions that may be at risk right before the earnings are out
3) If hit by a bad report accidentally, get out as soon as you can or on a small rebound that day.
4) If selling at a hefty profit, allow a cool-off period and re-enter only if technicals allign well.
I know emotions take over when a disaster like DIET hits the fan, but it could be helpful to refer to a simple "code of trading" that had been created on a cool head. Just take a peek and see what the rules dictate.
I realize that 100% selling or holding through the earnings may not apply so an individual consideration is needed for each stock.
We need to provide higher protection on the downside and utilize more opportunities on the upside.
Hope I do not sound too naive.
Cheers to all! ;)
Misha.
Awesome dialogue going on here after 2 big down days.
As one searches for the Holy Grail, and after years of trading, one comes to the conclusion that The Grail is alive and well with the trader that's within us. It's all about experiences as we learn to recover from dreadfull trades like these. Thats what this GAME is all about. Take it from a guy who got spanked on a few trades for over $50k a few years back...........poof! Just like that on 2 stocks that experienced no- limit down days. Talk about ..... ::)
Anyways, I too feel your pain, but you too can recover.
Applaud to those who learn to recover and stay the course............ ;D
"If we don't learn from our mistakes, we're destined to repeat them"
"When life deals you lemons, make lemonade."
I'd like to try to help you guys do both of those.
Someone on the thread said, "This could have gone either way." Very true.
Another member have said something to the effect, "I'm making it a rule not to hold going into release of earnings." Certainly understandable, and not a bad decision at all.
What I try to do at earnings, is look at the chart and the technicals, and see where I am. Is there a pattern? Am I at support or resistance? How weak or strong are the technicals?
I've taken a look at the DIET chart this morning. There was a false breakout to the upside three days before earnings, the stock went back inside the pattern the next day, and the low held right at the up trendline, within three cents.
The day before the release of earnings, the stock went well below the up trendline intraday, but it came on at the close and put in a hangman. The open and close (the "real body') were at the top of the pattern, and the "real body" was right inside the pattern, "hanging on to it."
YOU MAKE THE CALL: IS IT GOING HIGHER OR LOWER?
We can't possibly know that, because that's knowing the future, and none of us does, unless we're psychic.
All that we can do is look at the pros and cons, and even knowing that, DIET still "could have" gone higher on earnings.
Going into earnings, we can see that:
1. DIET had had a false breakout to the upside.
2. It was well beyond 2/3 of the way to the apex of the Symmetrical Triangle at the false breakout. That alone doesn't indicate that the stock is going to fail. It is only one indication of weakness. One piece of evidence. It still could have gone either way.
3. MACD was giving the "deadly" signal of 3 failures at, and then from below its signal line. DIET still could have gone higher on earnings.
Again, no one could have told us ahead of time, in what direction DIET would break out. And, it's easy to Monday morning quarterback, and say, "Oh, that was so obvious that it was going to fail!"
Baloney!
I've seen stocks that have looked just as precarious that did breakout to the upside.
My purpose in Monday morning quarterbacking the chart pre-earnings, is to say that while I understand why some have decided automatically to sell before an earnings release, my own feeling is that we can try to do our best to analyze the chart, weigh the pros and cons, then make our decision about whether or not to hold.
My primary purpose in Monday morning quarterbacking the chart, pre-earnings, is to explain why I said that I would sell at the market price at the open, any time that I were in this situation. I don't in any way feel that it was an obvious mistake to hold into earnings, because it wasn't obvious. DIET hadn't clearly broken the Symmetrical Triangle on a closing basis.
What I have found to be a mistake in my own experience, is not to sell at the open on this kind of gap down, and I never will do that again. Now, that's just me.
I also feel that doubling down on the first or second day of a gap down without at least seeing the stock find some level of support and breakout above it on an intraday chart is a mistake. And, again, absolutely no criticism intended, but I feel that it's a panicky response and that the likelihood of succeeding when doing that isn't favored when you're taking a position against a very powerful move in the market.
When a stock is called down like DIET was on Thursday morning, the market is saying "You got your answer." Yes, it coulda opened down and then bounced. Yes, it coulda rallied all the way back to the opening gap...blah...blah...blah...
My own feeling, based on my own disasters, is that I can't possibly know how much of a bounce, or if it's going to bounce at all, or how much more "House of Pain" I've got to endure on the downside. I want OUT.
We all will be holding stocks going into earnings many, many times in the future, so each of us will have to make many decisions about what do. I've you've decided never to hold a stock through earnings, I sure don't blame you, and there's certainly a strong argument for taking that posture.
I just wanted to "walk through" trying to prepare for and respond to earnings releases, in general, using DIET as an example.
One more chart after this, then we're going to look at "possible" areas of support.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 10, 2006, 05:23:46 PM
I was more fascinated by the HGSI chart. That was a crushing gap down
If we don't learn anything else from this experience, it might be well worth it if we only learn not to get in the way of a "crushing" gap down like this. Luke's description is a very good one.
We've all heard the expression, "Don't try to catch a falling knife" when a stock is tanking, but looking at this candlevolume chart (the width expresses volume), buying into the powerful move down looks more to me like trying to catch a piano that just was thrown off the top of a building.
Crushing.
I think that if we resolve never again to try to catch that piano, we've already profited from this experience. At least let's wait for the piano to bounce off the sidewalk a few times (some level of support).
At the last significant top in DIET, in February, 2004, the stock dropped 77.5%, and it took five months to bottom.
That in no way means that we're facing the same thing here, but it's certainly an indication that DIET could have some more downside, and that this could take some time to settle down.
We know from the first chart that I posted this morning that the Symmetrical Triangle target of 5.82 wasn't support.
Sometimes, targets will make, or come close, and that's it. The stock reverses. DIET dropped very quickly from the open on Thursday to 5.93, had a bounce, and then dropped right through 5.82 to about the low 5.60's, so 5.82 wasn't support.
Friday afternoon, it looked like the 200DMA at about 5.06 might be support, but that broke, volume increased again, and if you look at an intraday chart, the 200DMA actually became resistance in the late afternoon, into the close.
Since it generally takes awhile for some kind of bottom to form, let's look at a weekly chart.
After the July, 2004 low, DIET spent the next year and half in a Symmetrical Triangle formation from which it had a false breakout in October, 2005, and then a valid breakout in late December, 2005.
The top of that pattern is one level where we can look for "possible" support, but we can see that DIET already has gone below it. That doesn't mean DIET can't rally because it did that.
DIET certainly is going to have a reflex rally, and it "could be" as early as this week. When a stock has broken this badly, expect anything. On a reflex rally here, I would expect "erratic" trading, though, and it isn't anything that I ever would play.
If DIET does have a strong rally this week, back to Thursday's gap down, personally, if I were long, I would thank the market gawds for giving me that opportunity, and I would sell into it, as fast as I could.
"Sell into rallies to known resistance."
As shawfund, Mike (1reilly) and others have discussed, I'd want to see some kind of double bottom, or some kind of pattern to form, etc.
Back to the weekly chart...
Where I "suspect" (I never try to predict...I stink at it) that the stock might form some kind of bottom in the coming weeks is at the Kumo (Cloud), which is the vertical green lines, and at the bottom of the Big Symmetrical Triangle (solid blue up trendline). That area currently is at 4.05-4.36.
We'll watch it.
Some kind of bottom there, with the Kumo (Cloud) providing additional support, as it "should," might be very tradeable.
Notice that, after the February, 2004 top, DIET tanked almost without surcease until it reached the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud). It then rallied only for three weeks, back to the top of the Kumo (Cloud) and it didn't look like much, but it was a rally of about 25%.
Also notice that in both September and November, 2005, when DIET was shaping up nicely for the pattern breakout, the top of the Kumo (Cloud) provided support on both occasions, within a penny or two.
The Kumo is just one thing that can help us out. The up trendline is another. Patterns that form, etc. can help us out.
Again, I'm not predicting that DIET will go to (4.05-4.36), but after this week's drubbing, and with this week's candlestick closing near its low on big volume, it doesn't look like we've made a low, so it certainly isn't out of the question.
Sorry, I posted the wrong chart. It's been corrected.
When I finish with this post I plan to applaud each one of you who have contributed to this thread in the last 2 days. Somehow we have accumulated a group of very serious investors who are willing to share their opinions and knowledge with each other. The conversation taking place here is worth the price of entire year's subscription. Even we old pros have to be reminded of our basic rules from time to time. Melf said something I think is very important. When you look at this stock both technically and fundamentally before the earnings PR you can make a case for holding thru the report and a case for selling before the PR. What is sobering is the obvious immediate haircut this stock took. I never thought we would see guidance of 200 or 300% growth. Was the street looking for this? When I saw that they beat the numbers for the quarter and only guided 100% growth I thought down but not thru support levels. Now I'm asking myself what kind of PE will the Street put on this stock. It will be interesting to see what the Merriman analyst has to say when he recovers from the stroke he probably had on Thursday. I would kiss this stock goodbye in a second had they missed the quarter and given that CC performance. I just don't own that many stocks that are projecting 100% growth and have just taken a 40% haircut. Melf thanks for all your commentary and TA, you given me something I can work with to form a plan. Luke I promised myself I would not buy this stock on Fri. I stuck to that but I've got a gut feeling you might have a good Monday. Each one of you will now receive applause, it's for your willingness to take the time to be a part of this community.
After thinking about the hit we took on DIET, I believe the fact that they actually beat estimates and guided higher were already priced into the stock prior to ER release. I don't know what else they could have done. They would have had to post totally blow out earnings for Q4 to make the stock run on Thursday.
As far as the analyst from Merriman is concerned, I've learned to never trust these guys again. They are not big players. Their stock sells for just over a buck. I held their stock a couple years back and lost money on it. I held 1000 shares of VCLK and held thru earnings as well and got burnt there too. An analysit from Merriman upgraded that stock after ER was out and VCLK has done nothing but tank since.
My lesson is this, take profits religiously and never ever hold thru earnings. Once in a while your stock could post blow out earnings and you'll miss a nice run, but you will be far ahead to sell before ER and avoid the losses that occur 8 times out of 10.
I had a profit of $600 on VCLK the day before earnings and sold a couple days after that for a $1450 LOSS!!! I lost $5000 on DIET but at least I sold on Thuyrsday and avoided another $1000 in losses had I held on.
As it was, on Friday, even though I was still hurting from my 2 big losses, my mind was clear and I was able to trade other stocks for $1200 in profits. By not having to watch DIET I was able to devote my attention to profitable trades. Hopefully I'll be able to make up my losses in the next week or so.
As long as I held on to DIET and VCLK I was wallowing in the House of Pain, paralyzed from seeing other opportunities. And had I held on longer, my losses would only grow larger.
As someone, who is new and learning, I want to say how very much I appreciate all you traders. That you share your experience and knowledge so willingly is amazing. That David is having difficulty and is pretty honest about it impresses me. I thank you all and have learned so much.
Now back to figuring out how to make money. Luckily, I was out of DIET before it crashed, as I am so nervous about the entire market crashing and am overweighted in precious metals and oil. That was just dumb luck. They all crashed together Thursday.
I am inspired to read all your informative posts on the site.
Thanks again!
Hi Labelladonna,
I echo your sentiment. Some great discussions in this thread! Let me add my 2 cents:
eDiet has always been a story stock.
Let me first define what I mean by a story stock. This is a stock which has a story behind it which fundamentally can change the company's outlook. We have discussed several story stocks on 3SOF:
EMFP.OB and SVA. If Bird FLU ever mutate to a form that can be transferred from Human to Human these stocks will stand to gain tremendously
NVEC If MRAM will replace existing memory technologies NVEC is going to increase 10 fold if not more
If on the other hand the story dies it is time to reevaluate the stock.
The story behind eDiet is that they will repeat what NTRI already has done with great success. Develop a meal delivery business that would explode revenue and earnings.
With the earnings release that story is put on hold. I deliberately don't say dead because I think the jury is still out.
But for now we have to value eDiet on the fundamentals.
They expect to have a 10% revenue increase and decreased cost. Due to the seasonality of Earnings I would expect Q4 to be the best quarter of the year. But with increased earnings and margins it would be reasonable to expect earnings in the area of 0.28 for 2005 (analysts estimates are 0,27). Now that is the base business case and that would give a PE of around 17. Which is cheap for a company like eDiet.
If we have a look at the long term chart we can see that eDiet has fallen back to the long-term ascending trend line from before the story took it higher. This seems to confirm that the market now valuate the company based on its core business only.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17104;image)
Then you can add the joker of their meal delivery business. I still think they can make this a great business after they have learned the in and outs of the business. It is important to mention that eDiet's business model is fundamentally different from NTRI's as 1reilly has described so excellent in his diary. Just look at the food:
NTRI
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17107;image)
eDiet
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17108;image)
eDiet has a great management team (even though I am sure there are a few out there that would disagree with me today) and I am confident that they will make this new venture work. In The CC the CEO, Ciaran McCourt said:
QuoteWe officially launched our food service on January 1 and early signs are positive. I want to stress to all that we are in very early stages. We are excited about developing the business on a standalone basis as we work out lifetime values, re-up percentages, and margins. We will start to share more detail after we report our Q1 numbers.
They are shooting the first informercial these days and that could increase customers to this service as well as their site significantly.
Upbeat comments in the Q1 reporting could add some upside to the PPS having in mind that the food delivery business after the recent drop is not fully reflected in the stock price.
The stock market is not very patient but for the patient investor this might still be a great investment.
Mike
I want to say something to you guys.
My Applause Rating on Friday afternoon before I posted in this folder was 286. It was at 288 when I signed off yesterday. It's back to 286 right now.
PLEASE DO NOT START APPLAUDING ME NOW, like you did the last time I mentioned these ridiculous smites. Luke (Lucas Scott), at the time, said, "It looks like the squeaky wheel is getting the oil", and I entirely agree with him. That's equally ridiiculous.
75-100 members already have read my posts in this folder, so I don't want to see my Applause Rating go running up now. Too late, and that isn't my point.
Here's my point: I experience this same thing any time that I present a case for why a stock isn't bullish, or on one that is acting bearish, or on one that has turned bearish, etc. and here's what I want to say about that: try to be objective. Try not to "get religion" about a stock.
Here's what I mean about "getting religion." When you're long a stock, naturally, you wnat it to go up. But, if you can't stand to hear anything negative about it, or if you have constantly to quote every piece of anectodal evidence that makes you feel better about your postion, you're headed for trouble, because you're never going to see that "there's a time to hold 'em, and there's a time to fold 'em."
You simply can't because you've "got religion."
Here's what I mean by "anecdotal evidence."
I called the company today
by: dead_beet_dad
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/25/06 02:13 pm
Msg: 3451 of 3514
and asked them how the Fresh Cuisine program was doing. Exact words" Very good response, better than they thought, and members are telling them the food taste great and much better than what Nutri-system is offering". This was encouraging to me, I really don't know why people are selling this stock but after my contact with the company I plan on being a shareholder. Please call them or email them and they will respond.»"
dead_beet_dad notices that people are selling the stock (he posted three days before DIET topped), but he plans on being a shareholder because the company said "very good response, better than they thought."
Let me ask you something: What else is the company going to say? Okay, they could have said "something" else, but what I'm really asking is, does anyone think that the company is going to say, "Oh, crap, things aren't going that well." Or, "Kinda disappointing?"
Frankly, I don't know why these companies saying anything at all because they could have the SEC on their backs if they say anything that materially effects the stock, but hasn't yet been disclosed to everyone.
Part of their job is to "spin." That's, in part, what they get paid to do.
"dead__beet___dad," if he bought DIET right near the top, is a strong candidate for "getting religion" and "marrying this stock." He also likely will try to choke you if ever dare say anything about DIET (or any other stock that he ownds) that isn't bullish.
"Don't mess with people's 'relgioun'...and don't say nuthin' bad about my baby that I'm married to."
Folks, please try not to become a "dead__beet___dad." Try to be objective. Try not to cling to every piece of anectodal evidence that makes you feel better about being under water in a stock.
If that makes you want to smite me, smite away. I wasn't talking to you anyway. I'm talking to the members of this community who are trying to be objective. The members who are willing to evaluate what they read...looks at the charts...and make their own objective decisions about the stocks that they choose to own, or not to own.
Again, I have no long-term opinion about DIET, or about any other stock. I'm a trader who, at the moment, is trying to offer help to those of you who currently are in a difficult postion with this particular stock.
DO NOT RUN MY APPLAUSE RATING UP TO MAKE UP FOR THE SMITES, OR I WILL BE SERIOUSLY PISSED.
Smites are okay. YOU"RE PISSED, and I really can't blame you at all for being upset.
I got so curious, wondering if dead___beet___dad, "got married" and "got religion," I had to go and check. After checking about six pages of "Messages From Hell," I was ready to get outta there, when I came upon this:
Re: Congratulations Shorts
by: dead_beet_dad 03/09/06 11:01 am
Msg: 5536 of 6152
"Shorts won, boy was I wrong on this one. I can't believe I could be so wrong about a company. "
I am soo-oo proud of this guy. Not because of the "shorts won." In the short-term, yes, but that remains to be seen, longer-term.
I'm proud of him because he's showing objectivity. He's got a chance of succeeding. That makes my day.
Good for dead___beet___dad!!! (Applause, even though he doesn't post here).
Hi Melf ELf,
It is not too often we agree so when it happens let's make a point about it.
There is obviously a lot of disappointment about the earnings report from DIET and you could easily see this stock drop further even though I see some support here. I do not presently hold the stock but I would certainly buy the stock if it falls below 4.3.
If the stock tries to close the gap within the coming days I would also take profit or cut my loses. For the time being the story is on hold and the fundamental business case cannot support a price above 7.5 in the short run.
So we have a span between 4.3 and 7.5 where we can make money.
Long term I still believe that the stock has the potential to go well above 7.5 but for now we have to be modest!
Mike
I have highly appreciated the DIET discussion.
THIS exactly makes 3stocksonfire.org so different from all the other stock boards.
You have technical and fundamental analysis fraction working hand in hand together to give the best overview and stock analysis.
Thanks for this great teamwork & happy trading
;)
cheers
Oliver
p.s.: looking forward to the new changes & new ideas from David & Frederick!!
Quote from: Michael on March 12, 2006, 12:14:18 PM
Hi Melf ELf,
It is not too often we agree so when it happens let's make a point about it.
Michael (Mike),
Oh-h, bull crap!
I've thought about the two message that you sent to me today, and here's what I've decided.
If you even "remotely" think that you are going to "prove" anything with your TA vs. FA nonsense, and if you think that you are going to keep playing your games with me, and think that you are going to continue to use me for your own purposes, you've got another thought coming.
I'm talikng, specifically, about this DIET folder and about the, SVA, CKCM, KOMG, STX, VPHM, DHB, just to name a few.
You "claim" to be an "investor" yet you're telling these people who are in "The House of Pain" that you are
out of DIET?
Why?
When?
How in the world is that helping these people, to find that out
after the fact , after this stock has tanked? That you are OUT? How is it, that you always come off "smelling like a rose?"
"I have a 300% gain in this stock, so it doesn't matter." Buy more!
If you posted that you were out of DIET
before this stock tanked, I will apologize to you IMMEDIATELY.
You said in one of your messages to me today that you smited me for being "arrogant." I'm okay with that, because I know that there is a very fine line between "arrogance," and "self-confidence."
I'm self-confident, Mike, and I know that I'm nothing more than that, and if you dont see it that way, that's YOUR issue, not mine. You must not have read about my LOSSES that I've posted, like the 25% hit I took in October, in HGSI, and the many other losses that I have taken, like David. All of the other LOSSES that I've posted on these boards.
I've gone through this crap before on other internet boards, Mike, because I'm an "easy target." I'm experienced, and that's apparent because of all of the hours that I put into my work, and the hours that I spend posting my charts, with "why" I am taking the trade. "Why" this is my stop. "What" the risk:reward ratio is on the trade.
It's not because "I'm smart." Or, that "I think I'm smart." I work my azz off.
If you are determined to play these games with me, and determined to "take me down," and so determined to get my atention, I've got plenty of "game." And, you definitely have my attention today.
Arrogant? No. Self-confident.
You simply aren't someone with whom I want to spend my time.
If you want to be friends, Mike, you will go back to some of the folders that I mentioned, and "do the right thing." You will STOP this nonsense about TA vs. FA. It never was about that. It was about yourr rudeness, as I mentioned to you my "smite post" to you in the VPHM folder, and as I mentioned to you in my messages today.
You don't want to get that. You want to dance around that issue, like that dancing man at the bottom of your posts.
Here's what you will do, if you are sincere about wanting to be friends, and if you are sincere that you
aren't smiting me.
You will recognize my "9 Bear Moves" in KOMG in that folder. You will recognize my "2 Bull Moves in KOMG." You will recognize my "I bought KOMG at 29.25, above 29.13-29.17 resitance (I was a little late on my buzzer).
You will go back to the CKCM folder and "do the right thing" about the hours of posting that I did, and post something about that 13.55 downside target that was IN PLAY, that when it finally hit (the low was 13.52), I posted in "real time," with a chart attached.
You will go back to the VPHM folder, and acknowlege something like, "Ya know, Melf wasn't completely crazy with those sells that he posted a month ago, and with the 4 sells that he got, subsequently. I see that I can have all I want of VPHH, below all 4 of those sell targets."
"Something", Mike.
Anything that indicates to me that you have "any" respect for the hours of work that I have put in, to "try" to help.
Anything that even remotely suggests to me that you are sincere when you say that you respect my work, and that you
aren't smiting the crap outta me.
Apologies to the rest of the community, if you read this. Some of you already are in the "House of Pain," so you might relate, because I feel that way, too, having Michael "Mike" on my azz.
It feels like a little kid, when you're in the garage, trying to work on a project.
"You're going to hammer your thumb, Melf!"
You don't know what you're doing, Melf!"
You're arrogant, Melf, thinking that you could fix that!"
You never want to hurt the kid, but you definitely want to say,
"GO IN THAT HOUSE OF PAIN THAT YOU SEEM TO WANT TO BE IN, BUT GET AWAY FROM ME. I'M TRYING TO WORK, DAMMIT."
Quote
Thanks to all contributers in this DIET autopsy.
My normal approach is to NOT hold through earnings, sometimes I do if I think the story could give a significant upward move when 'news' releases. I thought that was the case for DIET, hence I held through earnings.
So it went the wrong way, and I stopped out for I think about 20% or so loss (was 10% gain).
I have sold because the price did not react the way I expected, therefor my reasons to hold have dissapeared and I do't want to add it to a manufactured 'long port' that contains stocks that didn't do as would have liked, yikes that port would be chock-a-block with tickers ;)
DIET may well come back as Fresh Cuisine numbers grow over the coming months, but for me I have played the stock (for a specific move), it didn't work out, so I move on.
Good Luck
Dear Melf Elf,
I will leave the personal issues as we left them yesterday. I don't think the rest of the forum is too interested.
But as you are commenting on what I wrote in my private message to you about eDiet and other memebers might be interested I will copy that part here:
QuoteConcerning DIET I agree with you. I would have sold that stock on the opening after the earnings release.........
Now some members didn't sell and they are now sitting on a loss. To trade the stock now has tax implications and cost commission. If I was a holder I wouldn't sell at this point in time. I think there will be a better exit point for short term holders and I still believe that long-term holders might recover their losses. I guess that that was what I tried to communicate.
Concerning your last point about smiting you in the DIET folder. I really don't know what to say. I am not shy of disagreeing with anybody including you and I certainly wouldn't lie if I had smited you. On the contrary I would probably have done that in public.
You are correct that I didn't post that I sold the stock. I sometimes did that in the past. The result was an endless stream of smite points so I just stopped. If anybody ask me, which often happens in private messages, I have always revealed my position. As you are questioning my personal integrety I have made a screen dump of my Etrade account so you can check for yourself (I am sorry it is in Danish but Sælg means sell). As this is a bit personal information I will leave it here for a day or two:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1948.msg50981#msg50981
Now here is the good news. As most of you might know by now David and Fred have asked me to join the trading team so from now on you and everybody else will know exactly when I buy and sell. I certainly hope that I will still "smell like a rose" after that change ;)
Mike
DIET - has a complicated past here but I will comment specifically on the current situation.
After a gap down and a tall red(down) candle DIET showed no hint of support as it continued lower breaching the 200sma and the $5.00 level. Since the price recently oscillated at these levels(4-5) support is expected to show up soon.
Simply a sign of support will not be good enough to hold this stock.. as DIET could take its time clawing back up. Time is money and this is the 3stocksonFIRE portfolio ;) We are hoping DIET can bounce back strong starting on Monday and perhaps setting a good tone for the week.
In case the market does not consider DIET a good play here we will be setting a stop @ 4.64.
What will the market have in store for us this week?
A thing I've learned about myself is that after I done all the research and have decided to buy stock, is that I only want to hear positive things about my decision. When I go to a message board and read the messages, I am thinking that that all the people that are saying negative things about the stock I just bought are bashers and full of Sh*t, and wanting the price to go down because they are shorting it. It's hard to have an open mind when you want to be right, no one wants to hear bad things about the decision they have made. On regular message boards the post are from either a pumper or a basher, and contain very little useful information (stock will double tomorrow--company going bankrupt), This is one of the few places a person can go where people work together to do there best to help others make their decisions. If someone here says a bad thing about a stock that I bought, I know that it is something I should look into. But then again, it is all kind of a game, and you try make sure the odds are in your favor, but sometimes you get the 2 instead of the ace. I think though that as a community we stack the deck fairly well, and all opinions are appreciated if they are meant to benefit the community. I do not believe there are any college courses or seminars out there that could teach me what I have learned here. I took a good clipping from Diet, (hate it when that happens) but I would not have had the money to invest to start with if wasn't for you all and David.
Congrats eliteG and Mike joining the team with Ramsburg. I would say I want David on the Panel too. Infact I would strongly request for that.
Quote from: stocky on March 13, 2006, 09:04:25 AM
Congrats eliteG and Mike joining the team with Ramsburg. I would say I want David on the Panel too. Infact I would strongly request for that.
Strongly agree Stocky
uc.
PS. Holly intense thread. (This is better than TV). It appears I am getting some value for my $3,565.50 lose. I love the dialog and the drama, I think it is very educational.
And as always, I Love this Site.
I cannot agree more with stocky and undercasting with their demand for David to be the panelist too. In fact, David was my inpiration to join the site and pay for the service. I never paid for any subscription as I thought most were bogus. But David has really made me going on stocks and I will regret not to have him around.
Can any of the site Administrators please provide a clear explanation of the change and describe the future operation principles??
Thank you.
Hi berloga,
1reilly started a thread on the new 3SOF setup here: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4796.new;boardseen#new
I think this thread will answer some of your questions. 3SOF has been evolving from day one based on the requests from the members. This evolution will continue so please keep asking questions and come with good ideas!
Mike
I bought tonight at close. It is at trend line, way below Bollinger bands, RSI under 30 and may go back up and stochastics under 20 while volume faded and range was less. Good risk reward as stop goes under support for tiny loss.
Chart... http://tinyurl.com/nt4bl
I have not been following this stock since January - Alan Farley had written that this kind of stock generally pulls back by February as people's New Year resolutions often get put off. Anyway on the earnings morning I saw in pre market that they expected 10% growth I thought I read and I picked up only a couple hundred shares to watch at 7 but then the bid stropped to 6.50 and I sold at 6.99 in a minute when someone like me bought a little. So I was really surprised later to see it had dropped so much. I know nothing about it so had no reason to short it.
Anyway even if it needs to fall further is is oversold now and could at a minimum rally back to the 500-day so good for 10%. If not then a stock just under the recent low.
Quote from: eliteG on March 13, 2006, 01:07:18 AM
DIET - has a complicated past here but I will comment specifically on the current situation.
After a gap down and a tall red(down) candle DIET showed no hint of support as it continued lower breaching the 200sma and the $5.00 level. Since the price recently oscillated at these levels(4-5) support is expected to show up soon.
Simply a sign of support will not be good enough to hold this stock.. as DIET could take its time clawing back up. Time is money and this is the 3stocksonFIRE portfolio ;) We are hoping DIET can bounce back strong starting on Monday and perhaps setting a good tone for the week.
In case the market does not consider DIET a good play here we will be setting a stop @ 4.64.
What will the market have in store for us this week?
DIET - gave us a sign of support but like I stated before this is not good enough to hold a position in the stock on
FIRE portfolio. So we will get aggressive here and require that DIET close above 5.12(the high of today's candle) to keep this position. In case things go sour on the intra-day the stop from yesterday will be in play.
We will hold DIET unless it prints 4.64 or is set to close below 5.13.
Looks like DIET is toying with the 5.12 ultimatum.
Can we keep DIET but move it to a new portfolio we'll call "3 Stocks On Ice" ;)
We need to issue an Amber Alert for Melf Elf. His last post was the rant on page 11 of this thread on Sunday. Has anyone heard from him since? I wonder if he was upset by the promotions?
I will continue holding DIET. I don't think there's much downside left, because I can't fathom DIET is worth less now than it was six months ago. It could dip a little but I think the downside from this point (low 5's) is not much more than 10% and the upside is 60% for a gap fill.
DIET is definately toying with the number Lucas ;)
but as I write this DIET is @ 5.13 so we will hold. That was an aggressive call to make and DIET has met it! I will update the new stops later.
We will hold DIET.
Solid looking rebound for DIET today forming a morning doji star candle stick pattern which is one of the most reliable patterns in candle sticks. If we see a rally tomorrow i will likley sell at the close. I do believe this will recover over time but i believe its going to be a long bumpy ride and think i can make my money back faster in other stocks. Lots of times when i stock crashes like this it will form an ascending triangle and the breakout of the triangle can send PPS back up to its previous levels. Once this happens is when i will look for another entry into DIET.
Good luck everyone holding,
Fous
Morning Doji Star
Significance: bullish
Indication: reversal
# of candles: 3
Previous Trend: Bearish
The Morning Doji Star pattern is characterizes by 3 candles. The fisrt day is a long black candle reinforcing the already bearish downtrend. The second is gaps down and forms a doji candle, indicating confusion in the market and a reversal could be upon us. And finally the 3rd day forms a white candle whose closing price pushes well into the real body of the first black day that occurred in this pattern. A gap up on the 3rd day is preferred for an ideal bullish Morning Star pattern though is not required. Confirmation of this pattern is provided by a higher close on the 4th day.
Note: Candlestick reversal patterns are significantly more potent when occuring near areas of support and resistence.
Nice work Fous 8) It sounds like you have a solid plan for DIET but the doji is not in star formation(gap) which would indicate a stronger reversal in place(exhaustion gap).
Thanks for the correction G. Though it is not a completely legit morning doji star pattern i still see it as a powerful reversal candle formation. A white day tomorrow will confirm its force.
Heres somewhat of a forcast of what i think DIET has the possibility of doing. Its similar to a recent play of mine. [VNT] .
This is my favorite set up to play
1. huge sell off on heavy volume
2. forms an ascending triangle
3. Breaks a downsloping resistence line
First chart VNT, second DIET
-fous
Hmm interesting stuff Fous dont know about that downsloping line on DIET ;) but VNT looks like an incredible play. Great chartwork man 8)
Fous - if your crystal ball is crystal clear all the DIET longs will be back in the green by mid-summer $-) . Did you base the top line of your ascending triangle on a Fib retrace? Looks like that line is approx the 38.2% retrace point (~$6.16). I'd be a seller there and look to re-enter lower. I hope it unfolds the way you've drawn it!!
Quote from: eliteG on March 14, 2006, 08:48:12 PM
Hmm interesting stuff Fous dont know about that downsloping line on DIET ;) but VNT looks like an incredible play. Great chartwork man 8)
LOL yah the downsloping line is skeptical on DIET. Though that line has shown a lot of significance since i first noticed it and i have used it previously to enter a position and looking for support. Here is sort of a timeline of the previous posts i made of that downsloping trendline playing out perfectly since the first day i noticed it.
1. I entered Diet at 7.20 in anticipation of this symmetrical triangle breakout. I.E. the downsloping trend line.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17289;image)
2. The downsloping trendline was broken out of and retraced back down to it. Showing support (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17290;image)
3. Price action once again rallied and retraced to find support at the descending trendline.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17291;image)
4. Breakout! im lookin to see some green following this day!
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17292;image)
5. Buuuuuuuuuuuuutttt no. No green for me. Although look where pps for support, once again that descending trendline. And then the next day were all shittin our pants >:D
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17293;image)
So i know its not the prettiest descending trendline one has ever seen. But it has shown a lot of significance for resistance for the symmetrical triangle and especially for support. While i won't be basing an entry soley off of this trendline, but a breakout of this line with a pending ascending triangle is a potent combo.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 14, 2006, 10:05:00 PM
Fous - if your crystal ball is crystal clear all the DIET longs will be back in the green by mid-summer $-) . Did you base the top line of your ascending triangle on a Fib retrace? Looks like that line is approx the 38.2% retrace point (~$6.16). I'd be a seller there and look to re-enter lower. I hope it unfolds the way you've drawn it!!
Hey Lucas, My crystal ball(my brain) tells me i drew the neckline at that point because it is the middle of the long black marubozu. Similarly when you look for support in the middle a white marubozu in a rally. I look for resistance at the midpoint of a Black marubozu. Notice the neckline of the VNT chart.
-fous
yo Fous.. It will definately be cool to see how DIET plays out.. will definately keep that line in mind.
Thats a lot of charting my man.. and great stuff at that ;D. I'm just gonna slip the DIET update around this stuff so our members get a chance to see it.
DIET was devastated 4 trading days ago and it will take more than this 4.5% gain to show it is getting back on fire. The 200 day moving average and the $5 price level should offer strong support.. enough to get DIET to bounce a bit stronger, otherwise we are wasting a slot that should be given to a stock on fire.
Today DIET met the stop criteria we set but it could have been better. DIET was repulsed by the halfway point of the tall red candle 2 trading day ago. The halfway point on tall candles offer excellent support/resistance areas Wink. So DIET must be able to beat and close above that area tomorrow to remain in this portfolio. The stop loss should move up also.
We will HOLD DIET unless it is set to close below 5.29 or hits our intra-day stop of 4.79.
I just wanted to second lucas's idea the other day for some kind of "3 Stocks on Ice". As we all know, we learn allot from negative situations and this surely was a big negative. The analysis going on here is superb, and its because it's representing a different kind of challenge. This doesn't come along to often and maybe these mistakes won't be so large in the future but when they happen maybe we could take advantage of them like whats going on here. There's a good chance it will be sold in short order so I don't feel it would waste a tremendous among of time for periodic reviews (perhaps once a week).
uc.
PS. Melf get back on board man, allot of people miss your input!
G, Mike & Rams:
3SOF is sending daily updates for Long Term & Pennies portfolios.
Since many of the members are in these stocks as well as the this portfoilio, I think we should see the threads updated with trading plans.
There are some nice gains in the Pennies and some ugly losses in the Long term.
Updates / Plan is needed.
Thanks,
Scott in KC
Quote from: KCScott on March 15, 2006, 12:12:44 PM
G, Mike & Rams:
3SOF is sending daily updates for Long Term & Pennies portfolios.
Since many of the members are in these stocks as well as the this portfoilio, I think we should see the threads updated with trading plans.
There are some nice gains in the Pennies and some ugly losses in the Long term.
Updates / Plan is needed.
Thanks,
Scott in KC
Hey Scott ;) absolutely! Those picks must have their trading plans updated!
Also, wanted to give everybody a heads up to check their email later today for a 3StocksOnFire update ;)
Did DIET squeak by again today and not get sold? It still shows up in the 3SOF portfolio, so just wondering...
I assume the 3SoF position is closed per E-G's guidance "We will HOLD DIET unless it is set to close below 5.29...."
I am holding for greener days ahead.
Quote from: tokyopua on March 15, 2006, 07:14:09 PM
Did DIET squeak by again today and not get sold? It still shows up in the 3SOF portfolio, so just wondering...
Following the plan DIET was sold @ 5.20 today.
The portfolio page (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) is now updated.
regards,
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 15, 2006, 07:37:00 PM
I assume the 3SoF position is closed per E-G's guidance "We will HOLD DIET unless it is set to close below 5.29...."
I am holding for greener days ahead.
I held it too, though if I get fully invested and find better picks (or get better picks from the new team ;-) I may sell it then. For now though, downside seems limited.
Luke
I think I understand why G has managed this position the way he has. I on the other hand have decided to stay the course for a while. I have not yet been able to build a case for a new purchase but I think our patience will be rewarded. 4.64 takes me out .l
Do you still hold DIET in this "SV" portfolio??? or was it sold together with SOF ???
jorgegr
Quote from: jorgegr on March 17, 2006, 01:21:40 AM
Do you still hold DIET in this "SV" portfolio??? or was it sold together with SOF ???
Hi Jorge
Yes DIET is still in the 3SOV portfolio. We will issue a trading update over the weekend.
As discussed in the DIET 3SOF thread this stock's incredible run from 4.5 to 8 was driven by speculation that eDiet would repeat NTRI's great success in the meal delivery business. These speculations came to an abrupt standstill when DIET released its Q4 earnings.
The company expects approximately $1 million in gross revenues related to the meal delivery business in Q1. In the CC they estimates the average sales price at $25 per day. A rough calculation therefore indicates they will have an average of 444 customers in Q1 2006.
So the excitement about the meal delivery business is on hold until we get further news, which the company expects to deliver at the Q1 earnings release.
Most discussions here on 3SOF have been on the meal delivery business so it is high time to look at the total business.
The company's guided that EPS would at least double in 2006. That all sounds good except that the analysts expected EPS to reach 0.27 in 2006 before the Q4 earnings and not 0.12 which the company now guides.
If you go into the details which was discussed at the conference call it turns out that DIET is expecting a 15% decrease in subscribers to their website in 2006. This is partly offset by an average subscription increase of 5%. As this is their main business a direct decline in what supposedly should be a growth business is really disappointing.
It seems like the increase in EPS is mainly driven by a decrease in marketing spend and the expected future earnings in the meal delivery business.
eDiet doesn't seem cheap compared to other companies in the same space with a proven concept. DIET's PE (ttm) is 85 and the forward PE (05) is 28.3. (The company's own guidance gives a 2005 PE of 42.5):
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17546;image)
DIET had a small bounce after the free fall. The stock price is now resting on the MA200:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17547;image)
There is not much to be excited about when it comes to DIET. It could still bounce of the MA200 but we think the stock is faired valued at this point in time. We will therefore sell the stock at the opening on Monday.
eDiet will continue to be on the watch list and if the meal delivery business takes off we might buy the stock back.
Luke
If you look at the volume of 26M it appears 3sof didn't have much left to sell on the open today. You and I might be the only two still in this thing. I will tell you that Michael's call of 440 some odd users of this FC product in Q1 means that over 20% are located at Diana's health club. If that's the case they need to hire Diana and get her off my payroll.
Mike
hey Reilly - DIET has been in rally mode for the second half of the day, especially the last hour. Maybe this is day 1 of a 3-day bounce. The chart is set up right for it.
I need it to make it to 6 to erase my attmept to catch this knife. I was about a buck too soon. While we are quoting songs, let me just say that "the waiting is the hardest part."
Luke
My 18 day SMA is right around 6.52. I'm going to try and add to this around 5.20 this morning. I am definitely going to enter today and I'll use 4.92 as a stop. Your point about the fundamentals is well taken. I go back to the original thought process which led us all to believe that FC would have no impack on Q4 and led me to believe that Q1 would still find this company refining its new business plan. I am able to make a case for todays trade we'll see if it leads to $.
mike
Many were too quick to pull the plug on DIET. It has had a very nice bounce. I am hoping for just a little more upside tomorrow morning. Then I will probably sell and look to buy back lower. Resistance at the 20 ema (6.10 and falling), and the 38.2 Fib retrace @ 6.17. I would sell in a heartbeat if it got there.
C'mon DIET, give us one more good day! As Melf Elf said in what seems to have been his final rant at 3SoF: "GO IN THAT HOUSE OF PAIN THAT YOU SEEM TO WANT TO BE IN, BUT GET AWAY FROM ME. I'M TRYING TO WORK, DAMMIT." Not sure if it's applicable but it cracks me up every time I read that line :D
The DIET rally stalled today and I sold my position at 5.70. I think it's near a short-term top. I'll keep on my watchlist for re-entry in the low 5's.
DIET is teasing the longs. It is pushing against the top of an ascending triangle. But is it really an ascending triangle or is it a bear flag? Yesterday it popped out of the triangle and tagged the 38.2 retrace line, then quickly fell back into the triangle and closed bearishly. I guess it couldn't stand being out of that "House of Pain" that Michael and Melf Elf had built. Today it changed its stripes and looks bullish again.
On a different note, here is one of David Randolph's last posts at 3Stocks before he went into a self-imposed exile, posted the day DIET started to tank:
Quote from: David Randolph on March 09, 2006, 09:20:07 AM
The company beat expectations but guidance wasn't as strong as probably many would expect. Fresh Cuisine is still in its early stages.
I believe the company is underestimating Fresh Cuisine's potential.
I know people are selling off DIET in the pre-market, but I'll continue holding the stock, both on a long term and trading perspective.
It has stuck in my mind ever since because it was so bold. David was basically saying: "The market has got it wrong, the company has got it wrong. I am right." Yowza!! :o
Anyway, I'll buy a breakout of the triangle if it happens tomorrow, but I'll have a short leash on it if it doesn't go my way.
Sure would like to see DIET get out of that triangle on the upside! Still holding, but with a big loss. Should have made a clearer plan for myself but did not :'(
Amarens
Anybody still holding??
News:
Press Release Source: eDiets.com, Inc.
eDiets.com(R) to Report First Quarter 2006 Results on Monday, May 15, 2006
Monday May 8, 11:36 am ET
DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla., May 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET - News), leveraging the Internet and technology to bring diet, fitness and healthy lifestyle solutions to market, today announced that it expects to report results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2006, before the U.S. equity markets open on Monday, May 15, 2006.
jorgegr
Next Monday earnings report
Press Release Source: eDiets.com, Inc.
eDiets.com(R) to Report First Quarter 2006 Results on Monday, May 15, 2006
Monday May 8, 11:36 am ET
DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla., May 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET - News), leveraging the Internet and technology to bring diet, fitness and healthy lifestyle solutions to market, today announced that it expects to report results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2006, before the U.S. equity markets open on Monday, May 15, 2006.
jorgegr
Earnigs report on next monday ::)
Press Release Source: eDiets.com, Inc.
eDiets.com(R) to Report First Quarter 2006 Results on Monday, May 15, 2006
Monday May 8, 11:36 am ET
DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla., May 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET - News), leveraging the Internet and technology to bring diet, fitness and healthy lifestyle solutions to market, today announced that it expects to report results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2006, before the U.S. equity markets open on Monday, May 15, 2006.
I'm still in with my original position but got taken out of my trading position on a spike low at 4.89 off a 4.92 stop. I can't begin to tell you how that upset me. I vowed to not think about this position until I saw this upcoming report. So I won't comment except to say they better show some real numbers in this quarter with FC . I bought this company based on the food service growth potential and I believe only that will move this stock significantly higher. I will be surprised if this quarter shows growth but at least I've stayed the course through the 1st quarter and that was my plan. "Oh ye of little faith" could describe my feeling about this corporate business plan. Hope I'm wrong and I get an upside surprise. Good luck to all who still own this.
Now that's the DIET we've all come to know and love :( Go into that house of pain, I'm trying to work dammit!
Talk about betting on the wrong horse. Back on January 9 after David picked DIET, comparisons to NTRI logically followed. David even posted a chart of NTRI with the question: "Can DIET do this?" We got our answer on that. But what if David had picked MED instead? At this point it would almost be a 3-bagger. What a chart! MED is executing on their meal plan service and it is reaping huge returns for investors.
Anyone notice DIET changed their meal plan name from "Fresh Cuisine" to "eDiets Express"? What prompted that name change? "Fresh" we thought was a key selling point for the DIET program -- fresh fruits and veggies, which NTRI didn't offer. Guess DIET didn't agree. "eDiets Express" - could they be anymore blase?
Is it lower from here or does $4.80-ish look like support?
Everybody out?
ouch
1. Introduction
Besides being one of my largest percentage losses (-25%), DIET taught me an important lesson: you can never be certain about future prospects of a company. At the time, when it was trading around $7 or $8, everybody thought the Fresh Cuisine programme would increase revenues and profits, and DIET would follow the footsteps of NTRI. Instead, revenues fell and EPS turned negative. The stock plunged 65%.
So I'm curious about the current valuation and prospects. Is this the right time and price to invest in DIET shares?
2. Profile
eDiets.com, Inc. (DIET) engages in the development and marketing of Internet-based diet and fitness programs primarily in North America and western Europe. It offers online diet, fitness, and recipe services. (full profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DIET))
3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28097;image)
Up and down, up and down, but DIET is at about the same price it was back on its IPO in 2000.
3.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28098;image)
There's that gigantic gap down, after a quarterly earnings release that was a disappointment. DIET has been on a descending trend ever since. But, just recently, there were some signs of life, also due to an earnings report.
3.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28099;image)
The short term chart shows the possibility of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. DIET must close above $3.68 to confirm this bullish reversal pattern. Let's make some fundamental tests now.
4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28100;image)
The company has been increasing the number of shares issued and outstanding. I don't like that, as it increases the market cap without the corresponding rise on the share price. Current market cap is 24.3 million*$3.41 = $82.86 M.
4.2. Liquidity
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28102;image)
DIET has a weak balance sheet.
4.3. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28103;image)
Revenues are expected to decline by about 4% this year in comparison to 2005. This happened for the first 9 months of the year. The revenue multiple is $82.86 / $50.89 = 1.63. The average revenue multiple for the "Internet Information Providers" industry is 3.79. For NTRI, which has a similar business model, it is 4.37. So DIET seems very cheap at this point, exclusively considering the revenue multiple.
4.4. Profits
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28104;image)
This is a very irregular EPS picture, with more losing years than profitable ones. It looks like the company is still looking to find its business model. Let's break this to a quarter by quarter basis:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28105;image)
The company said on Thursday that it returned to profitability, with a $0.02 EPS. Expectations for the next two quarters are for a loss of ($0.01) and ($0.09), respectively. I guess there's room for a positive surprise here.
5. General Overview
Here are some recent news excerpts:
- «We also embarked on the integration of our Nutrio.com and eDiets.com technology platforms into a single asset that we believe will support lifetime relationships with our business and consumer customers. Nutrio.com is exhibiting rapid growth and has signed, or is in the process of signing, five new contracts as well as continuing to expand its business with existing clients."»
I remember that a 3 Stocks subscriber's wife said she didn't like the name ediets.com, because she didn't like to think she was on a diet. She preferred the name NutriSystem. Perhaps many women felt like that, and ediets.com bought www.nutrio.com and is integrating the two websites. 5 new contracts looks good, since Nutrio had just 8 when it was acquired. Anyway, nobody knows the value of these contracts.
I just love the idea of food delivery to an online community concerned about health and nutrition. I think it makes perfect sense. I can't figure out why NTRI is doing so well, with $560 M in 2006 sales and $2.28 B in market cap, and DIET can't do it.
The two companies were so close just a couple of years ago, but now NTRI is 27 times bigger than DIET. Perhaps the new President of DIET can help turn things around, because there's no doubt the market is there for the company, a huge market.
I don't like the increase in the number of shares outstanding, I don't like the balance sheet, I enjoy the revenue numbers and I dislike the EPS trends (or lack of). But I love the sector and the business. Shouldn't I just buy the leader, NTRI, and leave DIET alone?
Perhaps I should, but the opportunity for upside seems so much larger on DIET, with just $82 M in market cap and an enormous market potential.
I want to invest, but I need more confidence. Management needs to show they can pull DIET out of this whole and make it shine. I'll continue studying the company, if you want to receive updates on this analysis or studies on other stocks, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
i like stocks that move from the MA 50 when they build i little base...and then start to move up....eyii had similar chart when it moved up 100% 2 weeks ago.....sure diet is not an otcbb...but the chart i like so i have to buy.....thanks david for mentioning this stock again....
eyii like diet :)
what the hell happens here....400% more visitors (traffic) today at alexa.com :o :o :o
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?q=www.ediets.com&url=ediets.com
No, I'm not looking for revenge on DIET and I'll trade it like any other stock (once I lost 25% on this stock (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4242.0)). I just continue to believe the company's market opportunity is huge. They didn't start well with the fresh cuisine programme, but now they're making a second attempt, as they merge www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com.
Here's an analysis I wrote on November the 12th:
«1. Introduction
Besides being one of my largest percentage losses (-25%), DIET taught me an important lesson: you can never be certain about future prospects of a company. At the time, when it was trading around $7 or $8, everybody thought the Fresh Cuisine programme would increase revenues and profits, and DIET would follow the footsteps of NTRI. Instead, revenues fell and EPS turned negative. The stock plunged 65%.
So I'm curious about the current valuation and prospects. Is this the right time and price to invest in DIET shares?
2. Profile
eDiets.com, Inc. (DIET) engages in the development and marketing of Internet-based diet and fitness programs primarily in North America and western Europe. It offers online diet, fitness, and recipe services. (full profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DIET))
3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28097;image)
Up and down, up and down, but DIET is at about the same price it was back on its IPO in 2000.
3.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28098;image)
There's that gigantic gap down, after a quarterly earnings release that was a disappointment. DIET has been on a descending trend ever since. But, just recently, there were some signs of life, also due to an earnings report.
3.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28099;image)
The short term chart shows the possibility of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. DIET must close above $3.68 to confirm this bullish reversal pattern. Let's make some fundamental tests now.
4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28100;image)
The company has been increasing the number of shares issued and outstanding. I don't like that, as it increases the market cap without the corresponding rise on the share price. Current market cap is 24.3 million*$3.41 = $82.86 M.
4.2. Liquidity
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28102;image)
DIET has a weak balance sheet.
4.3. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28103;image)
Revenues are expected to decline by about 4% this year in comparison to 2005. This happened for the first 9 months of the year. The revenue multiple is $82.86 / $50.89 = 1.63. The average revenue multiple for the "Internet Information Providers" industry is 3.79. For NTRI, which has a similar business model, it is 4.37. So DIET seems very cheap at this point, exclusively considering the revenue multiple.
4.4. Profits
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28104;image)
This is a very irregular EPS picture, with more losing years than profitable ones. It looks like the company is still looking to find its business model. Let's break this to a quarter by quarter basis:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28105;image)
The company said on Thursday that it returned to profitability, with a $0.02 EPS. Expectations for the next two quarters are for a loss of ($0.01) and ($0.09), respectively. I guess there's room for a positive surprise here.
5. General Overview
Here are some recent news excerpts:
- «We also embarked on the integration of our Nutrio.com and eDiets.com technology platforms into a single asset that we believe will support lifetime relationships with our business and consumer customers. Nutrio.com is exhibiting rapid growth and has signed, or is in the process of signing, five new contracts as well as continuing to expand its business with existing clients."»
I remember that a 3 Stocks subscriber's wife said she didn't like the name ediets.com, because she didn't like to think she was on a diet. She preferred the name NutriSystem. Perhaps many women felt like that, and ediets.com bought www.nutrio.com and is integrating the two websites. 5 new contracts looks good, since Nutrio had just 8 when it was acquired. Anyway, nobody knows the value of these contracts.
I just love the idea of food delivery to an online community concerned about health and nutrition. I think it makes perfect sense. I can't figure out why NTRI is doing so well, with $560 M in 2006 sales and $2.28 B in market cap, and DIET can't do it.
The two companies were so close just a couple of years ago, but now NTRI is 27 times bigger than DIET. Perhaps the new President of DIET can help turn things around, because there's no doubt the market is there for the company, a huge market.
I don't like the increase in the number of shares outstanding, I don't like the balance sheet, I enjoy the revenue numbers and I dislike the EPS trends (or lack of). But I love the sector and the business. Shouldn't I just buy the leader, NTRI, and leave DIET alone?
Perhaps I should, but the opportunity for upside seems so much larger on DIET, with just $82 M in market cap and an enormous market potential.»
6. Trading Plan
Buy DIET tomorrow between $4.20 and $4.25, 6.66% of capital as always.
Here's the updated chart:
There's an interesting article about DIET on Motley Fool:
eDiets Still Starving (http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/061113/116343741809.html?.v=1)
It doesn't say anything new, or that I wasn't aware of, but it's a good perspective and explanation to why the share price fell from around $8 to $3.
Some highlights:
- «Recently, the company's founder resigned from the board and has sold 4.3 million of his shares to Prides Capital Partners, an investment firm that focuses on small-cap companies.»
I like this. The man wasn't doing a good job (he's kind of old for this business, 72 now) so he left the company (his shares were bought/sold at $5.05 a share).
- «But eDiets is trying to make up for this shortfall. For example, there is more emphasis on selling advertising on its portal site, and the company recently launched a food delivery service that includes chef-prepared offerings that meet personalized diet plans.»
A year ago the food delivery service was called Fresh Cuisine, remember? Now it is eDiets Express (http://www.ediets.com/start2.cfm?n_funnelid=480&code=29002).
I still don't understand why they have so much trouble selling such a great service as this. One of 3 Stocks Honours Members, I can't remember his nick now, tried the service and loved it ! I know my wife would order this for sure, if we lived in the US.
Why do they have such a small banner advertising this service on their website (http://www.ediets.com/)? One actually needs to scroll down to see the banner ???
Well, NutriSystems website (http://www.nutrisystem.com/) isn't much better, what an horrible design, don't you think? Still, NTRI is a $2.36 B market cap and DIET is just $103 M.
I think the market opportunity is so big for DIET that management won't be able to ruin it. I love the recent management change (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/cbsm/SIG=11iiumket/*http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b13BE18C3-D7F8-4BFE-8916-76862462216E%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo), let's see if this new guy from Nutrio can put the company on the right path.
My money is on it.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 25, 2006, 07:15:33 PM
Why do they have such a small banner advertising this service on their website (http://www.ediets.com/)? One actually needs to scroll down to see the banner ???
Well, NutriSystems website (http://www.nutrisystem.com/) isn't much better, what an horrible design, don't you think? Still, NTRI is a $2.36 B market cap and DIET is just $103 M.
As owner of a graphic design agency I have to say the design is actually quite good because it does not give me any appetite... :D ;D ;)
Amarens
Lol Amarens, well thought :D
DIET was the best performing stock on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio yesterday, and it was down 0.24% :-[
There wasn't any news or technical developments, I'll continue holding it without restrictions.
I'm starting to know this www.nutrio.com business a bit better. They had just 8 clients, but added or were in the process of adding 5 more this latest quarter.
I think it works the following way. For example, 3 Stocks on Fire has 8,000 registered users. We could sell Nutrio's diet plans and meal delivery service to our users. We would take a bit of profit and they would take the rest. Another deal is, imagine a company with, say, 5,000 employees. They can provide DIET's plans and meals to their employees, promoting an healthier lifestyle.
They're integrating the www.ediets.com website and www.nutrio.com, so they have two solutions in one website, direct to consumers and direct to businesses.
Nutrio is a better name than eDiets, I wonder which one they'll adopt. This investment is a bet on management and on a great market opportunity. The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio can make 10 times its money on DIET or lose 20 or 30% ...
I'll continue holding DIET.
I agree with this guy on Yahoo:
Quotedid you listen to cc?
1 - nutrio is much better than expected
2 - meal delivery will be huge.....my take is the street doesnt believe ediets is working fast enough to get into this market full scale, but even if they drag their feet, there is a ton of money to be made in meal delivery. not if for ediets, just when.
might get an upgrade and climb to 5-ish prior to next quarter.
In fact, I should listen to the latest conference call (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=120371&p=irol-audioarchives). I'll do it for the next update, no time now.
I'll continue holding DIET.
Listened to the Q3 earnings conference call, here are some highlights:
- The subscribers business is slowing down a bit and will probably slow even more on Q4 due to seasonal factors. It represented 78% of revenue versus 87% a year ago.
- Nutrio's revenues were $0.7 M for the quarter, with 8 contracts. They signed or are in the process of signing 5 new contracts this quarter, so this may represent a 62.5% increase in this business, to $1.14 M a quarter.
- The meal delivery service provided just $0.7 M in revenues in Q3, or 5.75% of revenues.
- The advertising on the www.ediets.com website provided 7.4% of revenues.
- They licenced their operations in Europe and Brazil, which had $0.8M in revenues and $0.4 M in losses in Q3.
The company is testing and refining the meal delivery service and will relaunch it. They already changed the name from Fresh Cuisine to eDiets Express. Although people made several questions on the meal delivery service, they declined to answer most of them, not providing details, for competitive reasons. They say they will be able to provide details on the Q4 cc.
My guess is, given the name change and all, they will provide a cheaper meal delivery service when they relaunch (Fresh Cuisine implies better quality and higher price than eDiets Express). I think they will move closer to NTRI's model.
Anyway, it still is an incipient part of the business. But I expect Nutrio and eDiets Express to ultimately grow from this small base, making DIET a 10 or 20 times larger company, like NTRI is (28 times larger). But this won't happen overnight, it will take a lot of patience.
I have patience. I'll continue holding DIET whatever happens to the share price.
There weren't any news out during the weekend and no new technical developments, as DIET is still trading within the $3.80 - $4.8 trading range.
I'll continue holding DIET.
Hi, David:
Nice to hear from you again.
I bught DIET on October 4 with a price of $2.95 in my portfolio.
Reason: I checked its historical chart and the stock always makes big gains at year end and year start. So called year end rally.
In 2003, it went from $3.00 to over $9.00 in two month. In 2005, it traded straight up from low of around $4.00 to a high of $8.50.
But in 2005, it only went up from $3.00 to $5.00.
So I am just looking for another year end rally and it is about half way to the low target of $5.00.
I will be very careful once it reached $5.00.
Will hold it at least one more month to see how it develops.
Thanks for your warm welcome shawFund, I'm pleased to read your analysis too :)
You have a nice entry price on DIET :). Do you really believe those seasonal trends? I don't know man, everytime somebody talks about the Stock Traders Almanac and seasonals, they always seem to fail.
But I wish you're right on DIET !
Nothing new happened on DIET, except the great news that shawFund is holding the stock :). I'll keep on holding it too, although my motivations are different.
DIET had some pick up in volume and a nice 3% rise, but nothing changed on the technical or fundamental picture. Nothing changed on my trading plan either.
DIET took what it gave yesterday. I'll continue waiting and holding.
No news and no website changes at www.ediets.com or www.nutrio.com. No technical developments either. If there's nothing new on the fundamentals or the technicals there are no changes to be made to the decision of holding DIET.
I'll continue to monitor www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com everyday to see if there's any change to DIET's business model. The CEO said on the latest conference call that they were working to merge the two websites into one, to have a unique platform for consumers and corporations.
Technically the stock is still stuck in a tight range. I'll continue holding it, as I see great potential going forward for this company, they're on the right spot to benefit from a fantastic market opportunity (meal delivery service to people on diet).
No news, no website developments and no technical developments. I'll continue holding DIET.
www.nutrio.com and www.ediets.com look the same, the only difference I see is that www.ediets.com is running a Wall Mart advertising banner.
Advertising revenues were $0.9 M in Q3, maybe that's improving, but that's very hard to know for sure.
There's no new fundamental developments, yet the share price is slowly deteriorating. Losing 6.84% on this one. But I'll continue holding as I expect positive news soon, on the merging process of the two websites or the re-launch of the food delivery service, now renamed e-Diets Express.
Lower and lower volume on DIET, nothing is happening here. But when it happens, or perhaps a few days before it happens, I expect the stock to run higher.
I'll continue holding DIET.
Damn DIET is taking my money away, again ! This management is starting to make me sick, such an enormous market opportunity and I see them sleeping ::)
Since I hold DIET, the www.ediets.com website looks exactly the same. The same photos of the same girls, always. It looks like nobody works there.
I feel like I should just sell it, but losing 10.6% now, it's hard. Especially when I know they will publish good news over the next couple of months and I enjoy the long term prospects of the business.
Perhaps I shouldn't "hold it", I should instead keep it under close eye, and attack only when there was a bullish catalyst.
A catalyst. Sometimes stocks need one to move. I need to learn how to identify which stocks need a catalyst and what that catalyst could be.
Anyway, for now I have nothing better to do with this 6.66% of capital than to hold DIET for some more time.
Why DIET is on DIET?
I dont know that and I have no position in it. But I do know that I can very conveniently and cheaply buy portion control food from any grocery store here. There are so many of them that you have hard time choosing. This knocks down the initial advantage that NTRI had. Coming to another part, I will suggest visiting www.traineo.com. This takes care of managing, supporting and tracking your diet/wellness online. DIET and NTRI may offer the two segments together, but I will prefer to have my choices at grocery stores [even 99cent stores do have these]. Goodluck if you are holding it.
This market never stops to amuse me. First Albany came out with a SELL recommendation on DIET and a price target of $3:
• Coverage initiated on eDiets.com by First Albany (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=DIET)
Briefing.com (Fri 6:28am)
... and immediately the stock rallied !!!
I don't know if people thought it was a buy recommendation or First Albany traders had orders to buy all the supply they would get out of the sell recommendation (http://mdteague.com/FlaminDevil)
Ramsburg's video on NVLS's thread couldn't apply more. Keep on learning the game.
Quote from: stocky on December 14, 2006, 08:47:33 PM
Why DIET is on DIET?
I dont know that and I have no position in it. But I do know that I can very conveniently and cheaply buy portion control food from any grocery store here. There are so many of them that you have hard time choosing. This knocks down the initial advantage that NTRI had. Coming to another part, I will suggest visiting www.traineo.com. This takes care of managing, supporting and tracking your diet/wellness online. DIET and NTRI may offer the two segments together, but I will prefer to have my choices at grocery stores [even 99cent stores do have these]. Goodluck if you are holding it.
Thanks for your testimony on DIET stocky, I appreciate it :)
Today's action was really odd. First Albany initiated coverage with a "sell" rating, and yet, the stock rallied, and a lot, at one point it was up 10%. I guess it was short covering, it looked like it (I really can't do intraday comments like the one above, I must stop with that).
You can find the analyst's justification for the sell rating here:
• Ediets.com Shares Rise (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061215/ediets_com_mover.html?.v=1)
AP (Fri 3:32pm)
Basically I agree with everything he says, except with one thing, which is:
Quote"These factors and very aggressive 2007 Street earnings per share expectations tip the scale to Sell," he wrote.
I disagree. On average, analysts are expecting total 2007 sales of $55.79 M and EPS of ($0.03). So, the Street expects 10% sales growth and a loss for the year. I don't see that as "aggressive Street earnings per share expectations", since when a negative EPS can be called that?
Anyway, I agree that the current business model is weak. But we also need to consider, and that's the main basis for this trade, the following:
QuoteThough the company faces risks, there is a large market opportunity in the diet market he wrote. But the company is up against larger competitors NutriSystem Inc. and Medifast Inc. for a piece of the market.
"Americans are getting fatter and spending money not to get fatter," he wrote. "The 45 million Americans who diet each year spend more than $40 billion on weight loss products and services."
So, DIET is a $96 M market cap company operating in a $40 B potential market. Management can't be so dumb not to grab at least a small share of the market, can it?
He also noted this about the meal delivery service (my biggest hope on DIET):
Quote
Lennan said the company's meal delivery system faced obstacles as it moved to launch a fresh meal system in 2006. Logistical issues include multiple deliveries each month, and risks are abundant for the company as its core business deteriorates while it moves into a new venture without a chief executive.
This is why they're remodeling the service, renaming it and starting the process all over again. Hopefully they learned from their mistakes and this time the service will take off like a rocket ! That news is about to come out in early 2007 ... the analyst completely ignored www.nutrio.com, which apparently is growing fast.
Overall I always enjoy when a stock rises after a downgrade. It shows demand is outpacing supply, even when someone credible says "it's going to $3".
I'll continue holding DIET, all the bad news is out, the market valuation already reflects that, all I can see is upside from here.
(just now I noticed I had $4.80 instead of $4.33 on the top of the trading range, and I've been making that mistake repeatedly, how come nobody said anything? You're kind to me :))
DIET touched $3.80 again, and again, it recovered some ground to close up 2%. There wasn't anything new on www.ediets.com or www.nutrio.com, which is starting to be exasperating.
The present situation isn't attractive, but the company has enormous potential. Positive news releases relative to the meal delivery service are expected in January 2007. I'll continue holding DIET.
Very low volume today on DIET and again, nothing new on www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com. Unfortunately, if I find more and more good picks and I have no more money to buy, I believe DIET would be my first choice to go out of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, here's why:
1) I'm losing 8% on this trade. I always prefer to throw away the losers than the winners;
2) The stock needs a catalyst to move decisively higher. I could have my money invested elsewhere, instead of parked here, and then come back only when the catalyst was released.
For now there's still 13% of cash available on the 3 SOF Portfolio, so I'll continue holding DIET, as the stock continues to be stuck in the $3.80 - $4.33 trading range.
Looking back at the weekly chart for the last few years shows Diet got a bump each of the past three years during this season.
Quote from: JKN on December 20, 2006, 10:08:03 AM
Looking back at the weekly chart for the last few years shows Diet got a bump each of the past three years during this season.
Yes, but I'm not a big fun of seasonality on technical trends. They're fun, but not much useful. I couldn't trade based solely on technical seasonality.
There was a press release out of DIET today, at least shows there's somebody working at the company ;D:
• eDiets.com(R) Partners With Author and Actress Suzanne Somers (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061220/nyw023.html?.v=81)
PR Newswire (Wed 8:00am)
This is cool, but doesn't have any material impact on the fundamentals, or the the share price for that matter.
DIET is still trading within the $3.8 - $4.33 trading range. I expect positive fundamental developments in January/February, as the company is restructuring its meal delivery service.
I need to be patient and keep on holding DIET.
David,
If this is what I think Im seeing on the long term chart from the March 06 high,DIET may be setting up for a 3rd wave up.Im thinking the whole move up off the recent Oct. low was a wave 1 and now its consolidating in the 2nd wave.I could be wrong but I'll be watching this one for sure.
Quote from: traderjbr on December 21, 2006, 02:36:02 PM
David,
If this is what I think Im seeing on the long term chart from the March 06 high,DIET may be setting up for a 3rd wave up.Im thinking the whole move up off the recent Oct. low was a wave 1 and now its consolidating in the 2nd wave.I could be wrong but I'll be watching this one for sure.
Thanks for your analysis traderjbr :)
I have some friends that are big fans of the Elliot Waves theory, but I could never understand it completely myself. I know the basics, that trends are supposed to be made in 5 waves, that the 3rd wave is supposed to be the longest, but ... I see it more as a description tool than a prediction one.
Because EW is based on the notion that the markets work as natural phenomenons. I believe they're more of a human phenomenon, not subject to rigid mathematic rules. But of course, I'm opened to new and different ideas, just keep them coming ;)
As for DIET, you know I'm actually a bit surprised to see the stock holding up so well? Considering the downgrades, the fact that the stock is about 30% off its lows, it looks like someone is accumulating shares around current levels.
There were news today:
• eDiets.com Announces Seven Members to Comprise Board of Advisors (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061221/nyth068.html?.v=71)
PR Newswire (Thu 9:27am)
No changes on both websites, www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com, but they're working behind the scenes.
I'll continue holding DIET, getting a bit more encouraged.
Wow, they finally changed the girls on www.ediets.com. And introduced the new Suzanne Somers weight-loss plan. They're alive ;D
The stock seems to be getting a bit more life too. It would be very nice if it could hold here around the $4 level before the big news hits the wires in January/February, with the relaunch of the meal delivery service.
Waiting and holding DIET.
DIET was up strongly during the session, but couldn't hold those gains by the end of the day. It remains stuck on the $3.80 - $4.33 trading range.
I guess today's rally happened because people ate too much during Christmas and thought they would need a diet ... and as they thought of diet, they thought of buying DIET's shares :)
www.ediets.com has an article today on its homepage which says:
«Bye Santa Belly! The holidays bring many things, including very full tummies. This fun workout (no gym required) will help tone down that belly.»
Nothing changed on the fundamentals or the technicals of DIET, I'll continue holding it, waiting for the relaunch of the meal delivery service.
Very low volume of 51 thousand shares on DIET today. Nothing new to think about. Nothing to add to the trading plan of holding the stock.
The same thing as yesterday, nothing new on the technical or fundamental side.
I'll keep holding DIET and waiting for news in early 2007 about the relaunch of the food delivery service and to see how nutrio is going.
We're in 2007 already, so we're expecting news on DIET soon. I've noticed a slight change on www.ediets.com, watch how the "eDiets Express" banner is in a more visible part of the website (and there's more exposure to Suzanne Somers weight-loss plan).
Perhaps the meal delivery service had some improvements already. No changes at www.nutrio.com.
Technically the stock almost touched its ascending 50 days SMA, and remains stuck in the $3.80 - $4.33 range. Nothing else to do but to keep on waiting and holding DIET.
I was just watching TV and just saw a commercial for Ediets. Suzanne Somers was the spokesperson and she told people that they can go look at her diet plan at Ediets.com and customize it for themselves by answering a series of questions to personalize the diet. It was interesting that it was called the "Suzanne Somers Weight Loss Plan", I guess they are really going to tie her in. Anyways, first time I had seen a commercial from ediets! By the way, no mention of nutrio.com, just Ediets.com
Quote from: trexkerry on January 02, 2007, 06:04:55 PM
I was just watching TV and just saw a commercial for Ediets. Suzanne Somers was the spokesperson and she told people that they can go look at her diet plan at Ediets.com and customize it for themselves by answering a series of questions to personalize the diet. It was interesting that it was called the "Suzanne Somers Weight Loss Plan", I guess they are really going to tie her in. Anyways, first time I had seen a commercial from ediets! By the way, no mention of nutrio.com, just Ediets.com
Thanks for the info trexkerry :)
The more I think of long term investing the more I feel I should continue holding DIET. My reasoning is as simple as it can be:
- NTRI was a company more or less the size of DIET a few years ago. Now it is 24 times larger :o. Why? Because it launched an affordable meal delivery service for people on diet.
- DIET started on the wrong foot with its own food delivery service, but now it is remodeling it and will relaunch it in Q1.
I see a big market opportunity for a small company. In fact, this market is so big it can make the share price grow 20 or 30 fold in a few years.
Do I worry about my current 15% paper loss on DIET?
Absolutely not. I can't focus on the long term and at the same time focus on the short term. If I were to be worried about losing 15% I would probably also sell with a 30% profit if I had one, but no, I'm a long term investor and I firmly believe my investment on DIET is sound.
Great. Although it will be very hard to stick to it when "dark days" come. The last span of dark days occured in the summer of 06. Shall we be mentally prepared for the next stretch of dark days which may happen soon or is already happening?
Here is a little research I did: I first joined 3SOF last May and from last May to last August I strictly followed 3SOF where most picks were done by eLiteG, until he disappeared and for a period 3SOF seemed dying (at least that was how I felt). I compare the actual results to what if I have held on till today (excluding OTCBB stocks which I don't play).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Entry Exit Return Today Return
IMOS 7.91 7.2 -8.98% 6.78 -14.29%
AOB 6 5.2 -13.33% 12.12 102.00%
IHR 6.65 6.22 -6.47% 7.41 11.43%
TWGP 28.26 28.85 2.09% 32.06 13.45%
XING 7.85 7.85 0.00% 13.27 69.04%
AES 18.26 17.37 -4.87% 21.94 20.15%
IRIS 15.02 13.1 -12.78% 12.54 -16.51%
MXWL 21.68 20.45 -5.67% 14.06 -35.15%
AERTA 2.77 3.45 24.55% 2.02 -27.08%
ABG 21.72 20.47 -5.76% 23.64 8.84%
SIRI 4.62 4.3 -6.93% 3.74 -19.05%
ATI 68.25 65 -4.76% 88.62 29.85%
XMSR 14.1 13.2 -6.38% 15.21 7.87%
BRLC 3.05 3.2 4.92% 8.77 187.54%
BBC 14.25 12 -15.79% 5.3 -62.81%
EYE 49.4 49.75 0.71% 35.67 -27.79%
ABI 31.83 31.4 -1.35% 35.84 12.60%
EPIX 4.63 4.05 -12.53% 6.8 46.87%
ALJ 36.3 32.4 -10.74% 24.91 -31.38%
NVEC 16.72 15.21 -9.03% 30.3 81.22%
BRLI 21.5 19.88 -7.53% 22.95 6.74%
STMP 20.21 19.9 -1.53% 15.56 -23.01%
SAM 27.94 28.25 1.11% 36.16 29.42%
BCON 1.4 1.26 -10.00% 0.85 -39.29%
TGC 1.13 1.05 -7.08% 0.7 -38.05%
SVA 2.43 2.08 -14.40% 2.5 2.88%
NGAS 9.19 8.2 -10.77% 6.29 -31.56%
USU 10.22 9.73 -4.79% 12.69 24.17%
TRID 20.53 19.5 -5.02% 18.65 -9.16%
SPAR 15.35 16.25 5.86% 15.36 0.07%
NUHC 12.8 12 -6.25% 10.02 -21.72%
CCJ 39.74 38 -4.38% 39.32 -1.06%
Average -4.93% 8.01%
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Now this gets interesting, what if we take away the 4 biggest winners
AOB, XING,BRLC,NVEC where each of them returned more than 50%?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Entry Exit Return Today Return
IMOS 7.91 7.2 -8.98% 6.78 -14.29%
IHR 6.65 6.22 -6.47% 7.41 11.43%
TWGP 28.26 28.85 2.09% 32.06 13.45%
AES 18.26 17.37 -4.87% 21.94 20.15%
IRIS 15.02 13.1 -12.78% 12.54 -16.51%
MXWL 21.68 20.45 -5.67% 14.06 -35.15%
AERTA 2.77 3.45 24.55% 2.02 -27.08%
ABG 21.72 20.47 -5.76% 23.64 8.84%
SIRI 4.62 4.3 -6.93% 3.74 -19.05%
ATI 68.25 65 -4.76% 88.62 29.85%
XMSR 14.1 13.2 -6.38% 15.21 7.87%
BBC 14.25 12 -15.79% 5.3 -62.81%
EYE 49.4 49.75 0.71% 35.67 -27.79%
ABI 31.83 31.4 -1.35% 35.84 12.60%
EPIX 4.63 4.05 -12.53% 6.8 46.87%
ALJ 36.3 32.4 -10.74% 24.91 -31.38%
BRLI 21.5 19.88 -7.53% 22.95 6.74%
STMP 20.21 19.9 -1.53% 15.56 -23.01%
SAM 27.94 28.25 1.11% 36.16 29.42%
BCON 1.4 1.26 -10.00% 0.85 -39.29%
TGC 1.13 1.05 -7.08% 0.7 -38.05%
SVA 2.43 2.08 -14.40% 2.5 2.88%
NGAS 9.19 8.2 -10.77% 6.29 -31.56%
USU 10.22 9.73 -4.79% 12.69 24.17%
TRID 20.53 19.5 -5.02% 18.65 -9.16%
SPAR 15.35 16.25 5.86% 15.36 0.07%
NUHC 12.8 12 -6.25% 10.02 -21.72%
CCJ 39.74 38 -4.38% 39.32 -1.06%
-5.02% -6.56%
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What I learned is:
Once you have done extensive research on a certain stock (although eLiteG approached more from TA's angle, I'd believe he must have considered FA too), be very reluctant to let it go. The fate of a stock portfolio is almost entirely decided by a handful of big winners.
One thing bothers me is that the market currently heavily favors large caps over small caps, yet big money has to be made from small caps. The goal of 3SOF being it is, most candidates have to come from small even micro cap companies. Have you given any thought on that?
Quote from: David Randolph on January 03, 2007, 05:48:01 PM
Do I worry about my current 15% paper loss on DIET?
Absolutely not. I can't focus on the long term and at the same time focus on the short term. If I were to be worried about losing 15% I would probably also sell with a 30% profit if I had one, but no, I'm a long term investor and I firmly believe my investment on DIET is sound.
That's a great study realcoolhead, thanks a lot !
I believe that since eliteG used technical analysis exclusively, it was very hard for him to hold a stock for a somewhat long time period. Because technical analysis is too volatile, especially if the TA is focused on short term indicators, like candlesticks, volume, and short term moving averages.
I believe the basic and most important premise of technical analysis is "the trend is your friend". The medium/long term trend, that is.
QuoteOnce you have done extensive research on a certain stock (although eLiteG approached more from TA's angle, I'd believe he must have considered FA too), be very reluctant to let it go. The fate of a stock portfolio is almost entirely decided by a handful of big winners.
I absolutely agree.
QuoteOne thing bothers me is that the market currently heavily favors large caps over small caps, yet big money has to be made from small caps. The goal of 3SOF being it is, most candidates have to come from small even micro cap companies. Have you given any thought on that?
Yes, I've been thinking about it, but the more I study the fundamentals, the more I see that the large cap vs small cap choice is irrelevant. That's another form of short term market timing that is bound to fail over the long term. The controversy "should I go with large or small caps?" shouldn't exist in a long term successful investment strategy.
Why? Because ultimately fundamentals always prevail, nevermind the size of the company. If sales and profits grow, so will the share price. If they shrink, the stock will go down. I've been seeing this relationship every time I study long term fundamentals and technicals in combination.
I can understand why in 1923 Livermore had to be a bull and just buy stocks in a bull market and be a bear and just sell stocks in a bear market. There was little stock specific information back then, and the money just followed the big waves of the general market. Even a few years ago, it would be impossible for me to perform fundamental analysis as fast as I do now. It would be almost impossible, say, in 1995, for a Portuguese like me to perform fundamental analysis on US stocks. Now, with the internet, information is easily available for everybody that wants to study it, it is much more fair.
I think this will lead to an even more efficient and stock specific market. A bad stock will go down even if we are in a bull market. A good stock will go up even if there's a massive bear market. Of course, multiples may expand or contract, but in the end, fundamental trends will persist and the share price will follow.
What I mean by all this is that money will become more and more informed as time goes by, so don't be afraid that your very attractive growth stock, just because it is a small company, won't get the highlights: it will.
As for DIET, this is the second time I'm taking a beating on it, and of course I don't like it. But I think you and everybody here understand my play, this company should grow immensely as NTRI did, if management gets its act together. The market opportunity is just too appealing to be missed.
Management said on the latest conference call they will relaunch its meal delivery service and provide details of the new service in Q1 2007. I want to hold the stock as I wait for the news, and if I like them, hold the stock for the long term.
But I can understand my timing was poor, not just because I'm losing, but also because I should have waited for the catalyst, not jump in months ahead of it. A lesson for the future, I'll try to keep that in mind when a similar situation occurs (I think I'm doing that with GGC, for example).
I'll continue holding DIET.
Nice technical rebound from the neckline on the chart below. I would welcome DIET coming back inside the $3.80-$4.33 channel.
DIET has a new management team on the job just since October 2006:
• eDiets.com(R) Appoints Steve Rattner President (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061010/latu095.html?.v=66)
PR Newswire (Tue, Oct 10)
And they said on the Q3 conference call that they would merge www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com websites, creating a brand new website, selling services to both individuals and businesses.
They are also restructuring the food delivery service (they already changed the service's name from Fresh Cuisine to eDiets Express) and will relaunch it in Q1 2007.
I'm expecting these developments to increase long term shareholder value, because without a doubt the market opportunity exists and it is huge.
I'll continue holding DIET.
david,i seem to recall you've mentioned in the past that averaging down is a loser's game. Even with that in mind, i bought some more at 3.40 on fri. if it has value at 4.20,3.40 seems to be a screaming buy. as always,MR.market will the final word. soxguy
For anyone interested in buying, DIET presents a good risk/reward ratio here with horizontal and 61.8% fib level support around the 3.40 level. Besides David's neckline support, we have an ascending trendline that could also act as support.
Maybe it might be a good idea and try and recoup the big loss on DIET by buying low especially if this trend reverses. Thing is not sure if this would be investing good money after bad. Seeing it down again makes me nervous.
call me nuts,but i bought some more at 3.42. saw one of their commercials on vh1 over the weekend. eventually this can work into the collective consciousness and months from now it will look like a no brainer. we'll see. soxguy
It's funny how you guys always focus on the losers of the Stocks on Fire Portfolio. The portfolio is up 0.8% today, yet you're looking at the biggest loser. DIET is the stock thread with the most page views recently. Why? Because it is the worst performer of the Portfolio.
Of course I have no problem with that, just registering the fact.
I would never consider averaging down, because when I'm losing the message I get from the market is "perhaps you're wrong". If I start losing more than 20% the message is "you're probably wrong". At -30% the market is screaming: «you're wrong!». Remember that it doesn't matter how much a stock is down, it can always go down another 99% !
To add more shares I need to feel more confident, and the way to get more confident is for the market to start showing I'm right by putting the stock in the gainers column.
I like DIET, but if I were to buy just one stock of the Stocks on Fire Portfolio it would be SYX, because there the market is screaming out loud: "you're right David".
Good luck with your additions of DIET shares, I hope the stock founds a bottom and starts moving up soon, but this isn't a technical or fundamental play, it is an anticipation of good news, that may change the company's future in a substantial way (to the better, we hope).
Quote from: David Randolph on January 08, 2007, 02:38:59 PM
It's funny how you guys always focus on the losers of the Stocks on Fire Portfolio. The portfolio is up 0.8% today, yet you're looking at the biggest loser. DIET is the stock thread with the most page views recently. Why? Because it is the worst performer of the Portfolio.
Haha, you're right! Maybe it's just the value investor in us that makes it happen. ;) I'm still trying to figure out why I tend to gravitate towards the "bargain" stocks but I think it has to do with the fact that I'm a bargain hunter in real life. I don't like buying anything at full price, whether it's a car, computer equipment, clothes, whatever. That has influenced my stock life and is something that I am working on changing although I may never be able to do it. More and more I am trying to embrace that part of my personality and use it to my advantage. In other words, be smarter about my bargain hunting. It has produced mixed results but I feel that I am on the right track. Now, I have to work on my real weakness - impatience. One thing that I have discovered on this journey is that buying "bargain" stocks doesn't work unless you can be smart (buying the right bargain stock at the right time) and patient (holding it long enough to realize your foresight). I'm working on it. ;D
And it's not that I don't buy great stocks such as SYX or BRLC. It's just that I don't hold onto them long enough to realize the potential that they have. Again, I'm working on patience....
Quote from: David Randolph on January 08, 2007, 02:38:59 PM
I would never consider averaging down, because when I'm losing the message I get from the market is "perhaps you're wrong". If I start losing more than 20% the message is "you're probably wrong". At -30% the market is screaming: «you're wrong!». Remember that it doesn't matter how much a stock is down, it can always go down another 99% !
David is right. Averaging down on a losing position is only a way to see your losses become compounded. You want compounded earnings, not compouned losses. Better to buy more stock as price goes up, not down. I know, it's the bargain hunter or value investor in all of us but in my experience, it's the best way to watch more money bleed away. Unless you can hold on until the trend reverses.
I have a friend that loves to average down and he is successful at it since he is willing to hold a stock for a couple of years if need be. He bought Providian a few years ago when it was hovering around $2.00 and I don't think he has sold yet even though it was bought out and his shares converted to the new company. Now he is in Doral and hurting although in a couple of years, that may turn around also.
As usual, everyone is right. This is a learning process for me and when the more experience educate the less experience, it is a valuable lesson. I need to take lessons in being patient as well and should know better that time does heal all wounds. I look forward to learning more in the coming months.
in many respects,averaging down probably is the wrong thing to do. then again,there are stocks like chtr. when that slumped,i bought some more.things worked out. in that case though,the volume was always there,not like diet. may we all profit in the new year. soxguy
Thanks for the great posts basonista, lancefur and soxguy :)
Basonista, I understand your "bargaining instinct". But, a stock is a bargain or not given the comparison between the market's value and the perceived fundamental value. Let's not even talk about low priced and high priced stocks, because, as we know, the share price doesn't reflect the market's value, only the market cap does.
But, a stock with a low market cap can be expensive and a large cap can be cheap (a bargain).
Moreover, fundamentals change a lot. A stock can go down and get more and more expensive, because fundamentals are deteriorating faster than the market cap declines. And, as often happens (especially with Stocks on Fire Portfolio stocks ;D), a stock can go up and yet become cheaper and cheaper, because fundamentals are improving faster than the share price rises.
So, "bargain" or "expensive" is kind of a complex matter, you shouldn't base your bargaining instinct on share price only.
I share your "patience" concerns, the path to being more of a long term investor is perhaps harder than I thought at first. I have several years of day trading on my back to now change so dramatically. The financial services industry wants everybody to be short term oriented (the media, the brokers, the investment banks) but seriously, there's no economic base to support short term trading.
Patience is a key word. I guess to accomplish "patience" one needs long term motivations to buy/hold/sell stocks. One can't buy a stock just because it rose today and expect to own it for the long term, there's no base to it. Because, if one is rational, if he bought because it was up on one day, he must sell when there's a negative day, doesn't he? Of course, most people believe they can be irrationally and rationally right at all times :) But unfortunately soon they find out they can't.
Lancefur is taking the right perspective on the 3 Stocks Premium Service. He will learn from his and my mistakes and successes, and probably will become a better and better trader as time goes by.
Quote from: soxguy on January 08, 2007, 03:36:48 PM
in many respects,averaging down probably is the wrong thing to do. then again,there are stocks like chtr. when that slumped,i bought some more.things worked out. in that case though,the volume was always there,not like diet. may we all profit in the new year. soxguy
Yes, in most times averaging down is a mistake (because a stock can always go down 99%, it doesn't matter how much it declined before. You can buy it down 99% from its highs and still lose 99%, always keep this in mind - many people think they can't lose since they're buying so much lower than others did. But if they think of the company, instead of the share price, its obvious a company can go from being great to being bankrupt).
Yes, CHTR was a great play and I should have held it longer. I need to work on that patience side.
Finally, for DIET, the same thing can be happening here. Just watch EGHT, I was bullish on that stock but sold for a 20% plus loss. Then it fell some more, but today it rocketed higher with very high volume. Was the market right when it made EGHT go down with low volume? I guess it wasn't.
So, perhaps the lack of information, the low volume and general disinterest is taking DIET down, but just that, nothing is changing or getting worse at the company. One day some good news will be released and DIET will recover all its losses, plus more.
I'm not just hopping for those news, I know the company is working on them. I just need to be patient and wait for those news to come out to the public.
For those who are candlestick fans the chart today shows a "sticky sandwich" which is a bullish reversal pattern.
I'll continue holding DIET.
I plan to buy some DIET tomorrow. I had held back so far because I noticed that the traffic rank of their site on Alexa.com had gone down in the last 3 months. I know this may not be a big deal in reality, but I have a web business myself so put more faith into Alexa than most might.
However, I see a nice little traffic spike starting with the new year, which indicates to me that maybe the new years resolution effect is happening, which if nothing else should provide a good trade opportunity, that could also turn into a long term investment ;) The chart from last year seems to indicate a New Years effect
Secondly, I think the chart represents a decent risk to reward with $3.40 appearing to act as support as it should. (Plus the tweezer bottom friday and the stick sandwitch patter David mentioned today are nice signs, too).
Thirdly, as I go to their website now, I see that they have Suzanne Sommers, so they are finally using a celebrity appeal to market. I dont know if that was brought up in this thread already, but seems like a positive development to me (unless they had her or someone else before, I never saw it before).
i agree with you david that good news will come along eventually. maybe i'm naive, but the fact that suzanne summers is out there pursuading suburban american women to try the product is a great plus.if you wonder about the value of marketing,look no further than apple and their ipods.they made that a must have item for people who didn't know they needed one. anyway,i don't know what market forces have caused diet to sell off,but i believe they'll be back.on such a thinly traded stock,that could be anytime. soxguy
Let's ride DIET!! Now looks like a great entry with minimal risk. >:D
Lol, the more I lose, the more you guys love DIET.
It's funny how the stock traded down to touch basonista's ascending trendline and then rebounded some, to close with a doji candlestick which can be a sign of at least a short term bottom.
There weren't any news or changes at www.ediets.com or www.nutrio.com. Someday those two websites will be merged into one and a big press release will hit the wires. But the big one I'm expecting is the new food delivery service.
I'll keep on holding DIET, good luck for you bottom fishers :)
Quote from: David Randolph on January 09, 2007, 04:59:19 PM
It's funny how the stock traded down to touch basonista's ascending trendline and then rebounded some, to close with a doji candlestick which can be a sign of at least a short term bottom.
Too bad my plan stopped me out below the horizontal support around 3.40. Of course DIET came back to close at my original buy point. Sometimes my trading plan takes me out of positions early, like DIET, and other times it protects me like in OMNI's 10% fall yesterday.
I understand the pitfalls of trying to define "bargain" when it comes to stock price. I guess what I mean by a bargain is more in the line of a stock that has begun (or continuing) a bullish run and pulls back to some support line or area, hopefully before it continues it's run. APPL and BRLC are two stocks that come to mind that I have been in lately. The momo stocks do it also (GOAM did it a couple of days ago) but momo support levels aren't as evident to me as they are in the slower movers. SOFO and TTWO are two stocks that came down to an easily definable support level that I will post on shortly. I'm just more comfortable buying these stocks than trying to catch them on a move up not knowing when the pullback will occur - and it always does. I find I incur greater losses trying to catch the "rising knife" than trying to catch a stock that is at a support level. These support levels also allow me to define my risk/reward more easily although shakeouts like yesterday on DIET take me out of some of these positions too early.
Patience - maybe one of these small biotechs could discover this cure. Either pill form or liquid would be nice. ;)
we touched 3.27 again. double bottom? we shall see. soxguy
3.20. let's bounce! soxguy
I was jetlagged from 2 weeks of vacation in Asia so slept through market open yesterday and didnt wind up buying DIET.
I was tempted again today but also slept through market open, and now the chart isnt showing me what I would like to see yet despite the arguments I made to myself in my last post. Yesterday's candlestick should have been bullish, and the market was up today, so I am confused at the price action on DIET.
So I am now on the fence about DIET, will see what David has to say.
i would understand if David sold based on the way diet is behaving. i'm trying to look at it long term. i do wish there was some volume. i'll wait for a catalyst to get this moving. i would think management is working on this. soxguy
To be honest with you DIET chart is pretty ugly, price is under all the important moving averages daily & weekly chart.... 50sma in the weekly chart is also pointing downward looks like it's going under the 200ema & 200sma.
Goodluck though ;)
I think David should stick to his guns - the only rule he must/should follow is his 2% of capital rule - a 30% loss in any position at 6.66% of total equity. I believe his logic for owning DIET is sound and selling here would be compromising his strategy.
Quote from: soxguy on January 10, 2007, 04:18:29 PM
i would understand if David sold based on the way diet is behaving. i'm trying to look at it long term. i do wish there was some volume. i'll wait for a catalyst to get this moving. i would think management is working on this. soxguy
No, I'm not thinking of selling DIET, it doesn't matter what the share price does.
But as the stock goes down I'm getting less and less confident that I'm right. Of course it doesn't cross my mind to add more shares here, that could make my mistake cost even more.
The lesson I'm getting from this trade is: "If you think there will be a positive catalyst, wait and buy only about a week before that, no need to jump in months ahead of the news."
The lesson you (in general) should be getting from this trade is: «If a man is losing money in one stock, he's probably wrong. If he's making money in another, he's probably right on that one. So if I am to follow his advice, I'll probably go with the stock's where the market is saying "he's right"».
Anyway, the Stocks on Fire Portfolio is well diversified and I have the 6.66% money allocation rule that always keeps me out of trouble in terms of risk. Also, I should never lose more than 30% in one single holding to always respect the 2% money management rule (that rule says one should never allow to lose more than 2% of total equity in one single trade).
The issue that is making me hold this stock isn't technical or fundamental (so, probably this was a mistake), it is the expectation of a better website, since DIET is merging www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com and the relaunch of the food delivery service. I'm a strong believer in this service, it just makes all the sense. If I lived in the US and wanted to make a diet, I could never cook my own meals (arghh, I hate cooking), and I would love a company that would bring my healthy meals to my house.
Management said it is working on these two big positive developments and it will release the news this quarter. I'll wait to see what they have to say. The problem is, perhaps when the positive news comes, the stock will make a great run, yes, to my break even point ???
It depends on the news. I hope I'll have enough vision to see what the future holds, given the decisions DIET's management takes.
I could also cut my loss and buy only after the news ... but then I would be a short term trader, since the news is so close now (and that wouldn't be nice for the 3 SOF Community). Also, my goal is to be a long term investor.
I'll keep on holding DIET.
There was a form 4 out just now saying Prides Capital, which owns 9,873,027 DIET shares or 40% of the company, bought 1,296 shares at $3.96.
Not much, but it goes to show that core long term investors aren't selling, they're adding to their holdings on the decline.
Hopefully this will provide a bit of a short term rally to DIET shares, it sure needs one.
That's about a week's worth of volume already. i like it. soxguy
The ascending trendline drawn by Basonista is the clue,
if it holds, will go right up.
Believe other inside purchases may follow. Will see
GLTA
Yes, there were more reports of insiders buying out today, but after all that has to do with a board compensation plan. I guess the company buys shares (instead of issuing new shares) and gives them to board members as compensation.
Another interesting SEC file that was filed today was a file SC 13 G/A, saying someone called Gonzalez Alejandro owns 2,236,238 DIET shares, or 9.1% of the company.
So, Prides Capital and Gonzalez Alejandro combined own 49.7% of DIET.
I don't think this is much relevant information, but I've read somewhere Prides Capital made the substantial part of its investment at prices above $5 ... where did I read that, let me see ... Yes, I can't share the link (because this is a Java application), but confirmed the information. So, these very strong hands thought DIET was an attractive investment at above $5 a share. It doesn't mean they're right, but we're not alone on DIET (of course, someone always holds the shares, all this talk isn't much relevant).
What makes sense to me is that www.ediets.com changed like I haven't seen in a while, and now is showing a bit more of a commercial attitude.
Volume picked up today and the stock rose 7%. Perhaps the bottom was made at basonista's support line.
I've been thinking a lot about DIET's business and I think that, with a somewhat capable management team, it can't fail.
Over the latest conference call management said that over the long term, the meal delivery service will be the biggest revenue source for the company, following NTRI's footsteps (of course they didn't say exactly this). It was the food delivery service that turned NTRI from a $50 M - $100 M company to the current $2.39 B.
And the same will happen to DIET, I don't see much overlap or competition between the two services, because both sites have their communities. There's plenty of space for both companies. All DIET has to do is to follow NTRI's footsteps, and it will be at least a billion dollar company.
Now DIET sells written recipes. Soon it will delivery the food already made at people's homes, the right food adjusted to the person's needs.
The opportunity is too big and too important to be missed. After a false start the meal delivery service is about to be relaunched.
I'll continue holding DIET.
I'm not sure if it's relevant,but on yahoo there was an article stating that all the diet services were up midday. It seems there's a lot of people who can't push themselves away from the dinner table,or any table for that matter. What ever the reason,diet recovered today.It seems that one spike down to 3.20 yesterday cleared everything out. i saw the same thing happened with eght before it moved up. we shall see. soxguy
Quote from: soxguy on January 11, 2007, 06:16:42 PM
I'm not sure if it's relevant,but on yahoo there was an article stating that all the diet services were up midday. It seems there's a lot of people who can't push themselves away from the dinner table,or any table for that matter. What ever the reason,diet recovered today.It seems that one spike down to 3.20 yesterday cleared everything out. i saw the same thing happened with eght before it moved up. we shall see. soxguy
That's a great article soxguy, thanks for the info :)
Dieting Companies Rise After Survey Shows Many Americans Want to Lose Weight (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070111/dieting_companies_sector_snap.html?.v=2)
I wasn't aware of this macro situation, even more fuel to DIET shares, because dieting can only go up from these very low levels.
My wife is talking here about an explanation to why people are not dieting so much anymore. Because they don't have time to follow diet plans, because they need to buy all the ingredients and prepare the meals.
For example, here at home, its me, 30 years old, and I like meat, fish, strong food. She likes to eat vegetables and fruits. My 3 year old son likes to eat with his hands ::) ... and then we have a 4 month old daughter.
She already has to prepare three different meals for dinner, if she were making a diet she would need to cook for 1 or 1 and a half hours a day, and of course she has no patience (or time).
This is where the meal delivery service comes in. And this article explains why DIET 's financials aren't so sound as one could expect. People don't have time or patient to follow their advice. But if they sell their advice as already made food for dinner, delivered at people's houses, I'm sure it will take off like a rocket, just like it happened with NTRI.
As you can see on the graph below, eDiets (DIET) and Nutrisystem (NTRI) were very similar companies, in terms of market cap, until 2004:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31677;image)
From 2004 through the end of 2006, NTRI's market cap jumped 25 fold to $2.4 B, while DIET's market cap remained roughly the same around $80 M.
Why?
Because NTRI launched a very successful food delivery service to its community of people on diet and DIET still couldn't do it. You can compare both websites, you'll see the business models are very similar: www.nutrisystem.com and www.ediets.com (but ediets food delivery service is a bit hidden because it is far more expensive than NTRI's, because it is fresh food instead of those horrible tablets NTRI sells. It looks like people on diet still care a lot more about price instead of quality. If people want junk diet food, DIET must sell it to the public, because shareholders need to come first).
DIET's management needs to pull out a food delivery service as good as NTRI's to enhance shareholder value. I'm expecting this to happen because the opportunity is too large and too profitable to be missed by an inept management.
Management changed recently to a younger guy, Steve Rattner from Nutrio (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/cbsm/SIG=11iiumket/*http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b13BE18C3-D7F8-4BFE-8916-76862462216E%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo), and the man promised to relaunch the food delivery service and said that the company will make efforts to make the food delivery service the largest part of its business.
For example, in Q3 2006, eDiets Express had revenues of just $0.7 M, while NTRI had revenues of $155 M, almost all of it coming from its food delivery service.
DIET can also grow 25 times in just two or three years, it just needs to sell their costumers prepared meals at an affordable price, instead of text recipes.
I can lose 30 or 40 or even 50% holding DIET shares. But I can also make a 2,500% profit if everything goes right and DIET follows NTRI's footsteps.
I'll keep on holding DIET.
DIET is holding and building a base. I continue to expect good news from the www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com merger and the relaunch of the food delivery service.
Will keep holding DIET.
This is why DIET will go up (1 Rating) 11-Jan-07 10:58 pm
There are many reasons. I will list just a few of them:
First thing first. Prides has been in this for aprox. 9 months. Kevin and Steve the two who run Prides are not stupid. They are both self made muti millionaires. They have a plan. First thing was to get the founder of the company out of there. That has been done. He did nothing but destroy wealth. The next thing was nutrio. For those who do not understand nutrio, look at the web site to get a better understanding. Nutrio prints CASH. This was a great deal for DIET to buy this company. There is a very low cost of acquiring new customers. The yr over yr growth potential is enormous. The next thing is the food introduction. There has been a lot of bitching about this, which is understandable. What you must understand is DIET is in test mode. The bouns is some revenue is being gernerated from this with little cost associated. They are looking at retention rates and tech. Infrastruture, and also price points. You can not launch a major food delivery without the proper layout, i.e prices, java platform menu selection. It is essential they pin point the proper food price to offer. This might take another 4-6 months, but it will be well worth it. Another issue is the sub. accounts. Everyone is panicing that they are falling off a cliff. People do not realize that this is a good thing. DIET was in a postion for years where they were acquiring customers at a loss. They are know out of these bad contracts. with i.e yahoo and AOL which was a disaster to say the least. DIET is now acquiring customers on a profitable basis. The subs will be down, but again, that is a good thing. In conclusion, DIET will eventually have so many people visiting the web site for the food it will bring subs in for a low cost. In the end, this will be a win win situation. DIET in the near future will have there food pricing and model down and also offer there diet plan at a reduced price. You will then see an absolute explosion to the upside in subs. There will obviously be an equillibrium with pricing. Two other contributing factors. The Licensing of DIETS software to fortune 500 companies. And also the ad revenue. Keep in mind. DIET spends a large amount of dollars on ad spending. The cost of advertising is declining fast which helps DIET a lot. Last thing a CEO should be coming soon. I look at this as a positive that it has taken this long. Prides in not just going to put some average JOE in there. Another positive factor DIET is a take over target. To start a diet business would cost a lot more then DIET mkt cap alone. Please do yur own DD. This is just my personal thoughts!!!
Rate it:
It's nice to read a second favorable opinion on a stock we own, with basically the same bullish case, thanks for the article anviriling :)
Technically DIET is still working with basonista's ascending trendline. I'm expecting the stock to give a lot of trouble to any weak hands out there, because bottoms usually are extremely volatile and difficult to stand.
The fundamental case remains: DIET's workers are making a merger between www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com and management is about to relaunch the meal delivery service, the thing that made Nutrisystem rise more than 20 fold in a few years.
I'll keep holding DIET.
Nothing new on DIET today. This isn't a cyclical business and the market potential is huge. Management just needs to start taking the right steps. They said they're doing that as I write and will release the news in Q1 2007.
The stock closed right at basonista's ascending trendline.
I'll keep holding whatever happens.
David, I believe that fundamentals are good to support and uptrend or downtrend of a stock, but when I enter on a stock, I don't want to marry it, just to flirt an while to get my honey and then go out to another.
My point is that I think you value more the fundamental than the technical part of the trade, while, for me, the fundamental is a longterm relationship with a stock and the technical analyses is for short-term relationship.
At 3stocksonfire, what is the strategy? The main page of the site says "Our team scans and filters 11000 stocks everyday to come up with the best short term opportunities"......If one says "best short term opportunities", isn't that contrary to your affirmation of "I'll keep holding whatever happens"?
For me, best short term opportunity is going to where the market orders me go to, keep holding whatever happens is having a serious risk of going against the market today.
Don't take it wrong, I believe you guys are making a great work at finding great picks for all of us, but the issue seems to don't have a plan to bail out - this because the fundamentals kinda disrupts the technical part of the plan of entering at a support or breakout and selling at the resistance or breakdown.
D.
Quote from: Dracull on January 18, 2007, 06:19:50 PM
David, I believe that fundamentals are good to support and uptrend or downtrend of a stock, but when I enter on a stock, I don't want to marry it, just to flirt an while to get my honey and then go out to another.
My point is that I think you value more the fundamental than the technical part of the trade, while, for me, the fundamental is a longterm relationship with a stock and the technical analyses is for short-term relationship.
At 3stocksonfire, what is the strategy? The main page of the site says "Our team scans and filters 11000 stocks everyday to come up with the best short term opportunities"......If one says "best short term opportunities", isn't that contrary to your affirmation of "I'll keep holding whatever happens"?
For me, best short term opportunity is going to where the market orders me go to, keep holding whatever happens is having a serious risk of going against the market today.
Don't take it wrong, I believe you guys are making a great work at finding great picks for all of us, but the issue seems to don't have a plan to bail out - this because the fundamentals kinda disrupts the technical part of the plan of entering at a support or breakout and selling at the resistance or breakdown.
D.
A lot of us (myself included) have been asking this question to David on almost each thread of his picks lol, but there is now a thread that is dedicated to the discussion of long term vs. short term, and David has given a reply there that explains the reasoning for the approach. If you want to take a look at that, its here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8734.0
As for DIET, I mentioned in this thread that I was looking at getting in, but never did. Now with the market looking shaky, I would personally rather see the awaited news release from management before getting in myself... even if it then meant I had to pay up a little more.
Thanks tokyopua, I wasn't aware of that thread, I will see it with all my attention ;)
sorry for my english, but I don't have many chances to write in english back here in Portugal
QuoteAt 3stocksonfire, what is the strategy? The main page of the site says "Our team scans and filters 11000 stocks everyday to come up with the best short term opportunities"......If one says "best short term opportunities", isn't that contrary to your affirmation of "I'll keep holding whatever happens"?
Thanks for your post Dracull, I share your concerns. The trading strategy at 3 Stocks has changed/evolved so much over the 20 months of the site's life that we have to do one of two things:
1) Change the whole concept of the website, perhaps even the name;
2) Do a portfolio or something to reflect the initial spirit of www.3stocksonfire.org
I've talked to Ramsburg, we've opted for the second, a new short term trading portfolio will start tomorrow (but of course we'll keep this one exactly as it is).
I applaud your reflection and decision, it's my strong conviction that with those two portfolios 3stocksonfire will rule the market and please both technical and fundamental players.
Cheers for 3stocksonfire!
Quote from: Dracull on January 19, 2007, 05:05:41 AM
I applaud your reflection and decision, it's my strong conviction that with those two portfolios 3stocksonfire will rule the market and please both technical and fundamental players.
Cheers for 3stocksonfire!
Thanks Dracull, I hope you're right :) In business my philosophy is: «the costumer is always right!»
Moving on to DIET because this isn't the right place to talk about these matters as Tokyopua has started a thread on the Members Board for the issue.
Still, no news at DIET and the company still didn't say when it will release Q4 earnings and the date of the conference call. That's when to expect news on the merger between www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com and the relaunch of the food delivery service. Well, it won't be later than February the 15th, unless they delay earnings.
An article was published on the general dieting group: Dieting Companies Rise After Analyst Begins Coverage of NutriSystem and Medifast at 'Buy' (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070119/dieting_companies_sector_snap.html?.v=1)
I'll keep holding DIET.
DIET broke down below basonista's support line, so now the chart is bearish. My reasoning for holding this stock isn't technical.
Prides Capital isn't going to sell their 9,857,727 shares because a support was broken and I won't do it either.
Will keep holding DIET expecting the 4Q conference call.
Nothing new on DIET as the stock closed unchanged and there were no news out.
Still, no changed at www.ediets.com or www.nutrio.com. I expect positive news on the 4th quarter conference call.
I'll keep holding DIET, despite the technical weakness.
Hmm, I just visited www.ediets.com and it says the following:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=32329;image)
Of course, the site being down is no good news, how can they sell with the website down, but, I wonder if this isn't related with the new www.ediets.com coming up online?
As you know, over the latest conference call, management said it would merge www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com, to integrate the company's consumer and business services in just one website, so perhaps this is part of the process (I know full well that when you make deep changes to an website, there are always problems).
Anyway, if not now, there will be positive catalysts out on the next conference call, with the new website and the relaunch of the food delivery service.
I'll keep holding DIET.
QuoteOf course, the site being down is no good news, how can they sell with the website down, but, I wonder if this isn't related with the new www.ediets.com coming up online?
No, not yet, everything is the same at www.ediets.com or www.nutrio.com.
Nice 2.82% rebound on Friday. I'll keep waiting for positive news over the 4th quarter 2006 results conference call and I'll continue holding DIET.
DIET closed unchanged. No news out since January the 11th. www.ediets.com looks the same. I'll keep holding DIET, expecting good news over the next couple of weeks.
DIET closed unchanged again and no news out, I'll keep holding.
DIET went down 4.88% yesterday in sympathy with NTRI, which fell 15% after releasing 4th quarter earnings. This doesn't make any sense, we wish DIET were similar or even meaningful competition to NTRI ::)
DIET's management is taking too long to deliver on its promise of merging www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com into just one brand new website and it is also taking time to relaunch its meal delivery service, our big hope on this company.
In the meantime, the share price is eroding, and I'm already losing 26% on this trade, as it approaches some money management rules limits.
But, we're already in February, and the long awaited conference call is near, so I should hold for some more time, since I've been holding and losing for so long already.
I'll continue holding DIET.
DIET had a bit of a bounce from Wednesday's sell off. There were just a few changes to www.ediets.com, I like that "Find your Perfect Diet" banner.
I'll keep holding, expecting good news out of the following conference call.
Nothing new on www.ediets.com, www.nutrio.com and there were no press releases out during the weekend. We don't hear anything from DIET since January the 11th.
Technically the stock is asleep with just 68,200 shares traded on Friday.
I'm expecting good news out of the next conference call, probably by the end of this month. Then I'll evaluate management's efforts to see if I should continue with this investment or else take the loss and move on.
I'm glad DIET held the $3.10 support and rebounded a bit from that level yesterday, we don't want more technical breakdowns before the news we're expecting out of the next conference call.
Still no news out, no changes at www.ediets.com, I'll keep waiting and holding DIET.
DIET is defying patience, with no news out and no technical developments, but at least it's not going down over the last couple of weeks. That's what I want the stock to do, to stay around current levels until the positive fundamental developments we're expecting are released, probably by the end of February.
Those developments are:
- Merging the www.ediets.com consumer business and the www.nutrio.com business, into one single website;
- Re-launching the meal delivery service, previously called Fresh Cuisine and now renamed eDiets Express.
I'll keep holding DIET.
Looks like this formed a small contracting wedge over the past month and now its seeing a break to the upside..will see if the volume starts to confirm,still a bit early but I think this has bottomed.
Nice 3.73% rise yesterday, for no apparent reason, since there were no news out or changes to www.ediets.com or www.nutrio.com.
It would be great if this were due to insider buying ... we'll know about that in a couple of days, that's how long it takes for the SEC forms 4 to be published.
I'll continue holding DIET.
There were some changes at www.ediets.com but still not what we're expecting. There was some pick up in volume yesterday, which I welcome.
I'll keep holding DIET.
There weren't any news out during the weekend, and just slight changes at www.ediets.com (now they're mixing exercising and dieting with sex), but the stock rose just a bit more to $3.4.
My take is the low was made until the news expected for the 4th quarter earnings conference call. As you know I'm not particularly interested in the revenue and EPS numbers for this quarter, but the re launch of the meal delivery service and improvements at Nutrio, DIET's new subsidiary.
I'll keep holding DIET.
Volume in DIET shares was so low yesterday that I shouldn't even do an update. But you know I always do it.
I've been holding DIET for long, and losing, there's no point in changing that attitude as the next conference call is getting near.
Patience. A 20% loss is nothing compared with this stock's long term upside potential.
I'll continue holding DIET.
DIET rose a bit yesterday without any news out. I can't enter www.ediets.com or www.nutrio.com. Is it possible that they're now merging the two websites and still disseminating the new site and probably new server over the internet?
It's possible, I know that changing the whole structure of a website is a complex issue and the website always goes down for some time before the changes are working properly.
Or else it could be just a technical problem.
Anyway, I'll keep holding DIET.
Volume picked up considerably and DIET is holding around the $3.4 level. It just needs one more step to climb above basonista's ascending trendline.
I expect positive fundamental developments by the end of this month, I'll keep holding DIET.
www.ediets.com has been down so much time lately that I'm starting to get worried about a serious revenue shortfall when it reports 4th quarter results.
Anyway, I came so far to hear the news about the relaunch of the meal delivery service that I'll just keep holding for that.
DIET is the Main (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php)'s ugly duck, so perhaps I should just let go of it and put the money to work in some other stock.
But I've waited too long to sell now. The two motives that I got to continue holding DIET are simple and objective:
1) The Nutrio segment is growing well and management promised to integrate www.nutrio.com and www.ediets.com in a single website;
2) Management said they're working to relaunch eDiet's meal delivery service in Q1 2007.
I'm a great believer in the meal delivery service to people on diet because a similar service transformed NTRI from an $80 M market cap to a more than $2 B market cap company in just a couple of years. The same could/should happen to DIET.
DIET is now the sole loser of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), and by 24%. It's really a shame, I should just dump and put the money to work elsewhere.
But I can't, because, after all, for more than a month that I wasn't expecting anything before the next conference call. I should be happy because it didn't went down further.
I'll keep waiting and holding DIET.
A bit of a bounce yesterday but nothing changed, I'll keep waiting for the Q4 results conference call.
Nothing new from DIET, since this is the annual report they have until mid March to report. I'll continue holding DIET.
DIET is the ugly duck of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), the sole loser.
But the jury is still out on the question if the 24% open loss is a reflection of a bad investment or just poor short term timing.
I still believe the loss is due to bad timing, as I entered the stock way before the bullish catalyst that I'm anticipating, which is the merger between www.ediets.com and www.nutrio.com and primarily the relaunch of the meal delivery service. The management of the company promised to deliver news on this issue over the next earnings release, due in mid March.
DIET is now just a $78.7 M market cap company. Analysts aren't expecting much from the company in 2007, as they estimate an EPS loss of ($0.15), but I believe the company will surprise everybody on the upside, especially if the meal delivery service gets more traction this time.
I'll continue holding DIET.
Still nothing out of DIET. Technically it wouldn't be nice if the stock were to break the $3.10 support on close. I'll continue holding DIET.
I'll sell DIET today due to my general market forecast (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9050.msg90421#msg90421). I was a fool in letting this go down so much (still didn't breach the money management 2% rule, so it's ok).
I'll still listen to that conference call, but will be more demanding on valuation multiples and much more conservative on forecasts.
we have a diet sighting.
Another diet sighting. A recovery underway?
Another diet sighting. Huge increase in volume. Meaningful? Up 70 cents from the low on tuesday.
Something's going on with DIET. May look to enter on Monday.
I never sold my position,so i watch this closely. It started moving after they announced those terrible earnings. But,as David said,it's not about the earnings as much as it's about the plan going forward. Obviously someone is optimistic. We shall see. My cost basis is 3.85. Hope to see that soon.
Diet up again,5th day in a row.
DIET pretty strong past several days?
Up over 5% today.
Sliced right through 3 significant layers of resistance with ease,very impressive price/volume action.Nice going soxguy!
Up another 2.13%. At this point i'm just along for the ride.The last 2 weeks have been fun though.
Ascending trednline intact on DIET on the 30 minute chart. Look for a break of this trendline to signal consolidation or a pullback. Would seem to me to be an appropriate point to take some off the table after a significant run.
Thanks for the heads up. I'd love to sell at $4 though. We'll see.
I'm just wondering if anyone here uses the linear regression/rsi(2).
I'm still learning how to use this tool.
This is what I see for DIET
These are the current regression lines I see.
3.83 = 5th line (top)
3.56 = 4th line
3.50 = Daily support/resistance congestion area.
3.30 = 3rd line
3.02 = 2nd line
2.76 = 1st line (bottom)
RSI(2) is below 20 and close to 0.
Does this mean that 3.50 is the bounce area or is the price still heading for 3.30 for the bounce?
What I also see is a sideways linear regression line.
The pullback is on it's 3rd day with a short inverted hammer on low volume.
Any comments on this risk rewar plan?
Buy at 3.30 with a stop at 3.20
risk = 10 cents
Sell at 3.56
reward = 0.26 cents
Sell at 3.83 if it breaks 3.56 (3.46 trailing stop)
reward = 0.53 cents
If it breaks 3.83 and top linear regression line rose above 3.83 (3.73 trailing stop) or sell when price hits the top regression line with RSI(2) above 80.
reward = ?
Lived through that dip. Back to 3.90 today. Still holding out for $4. Stubborn I guess.
se Source: eDiets
Epicurious.Com Picks eDiets(R) as Best Diet Meal Delivery Service
Friday May 25, 9:35 am ET
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla., May 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- As more and more dieters turn to meal delivery services as a convenient way to eat well and lose weight, eDiets is earning national recognition for raising the bar on what consumers can expect in taste and nutritional value. eDiets today announced that Epicurious.com, the award-winning food website, has selected eDiets as the winner of a test of the country's leading diet delivery programs. eDiets was selected for taste, nutrition, a wide range of meal choices and its personalized diet and fitness program over ZoneChefs®, PureFoods(TM) Fresh LowCarb, Jenny Craig® Jenny Direct and NutriSystem®*.
ADVERTISEMENT
For as little as $15.95 per day, eDiets delivers fresh chef prepared meals each day, customized to their food preferences. eDiets' newest meal delivery service, eDiets DeliciouslyYours, features a menu comprised of recipes and meals developed and prepared by top chefs who honed their skills at the Culinary Institute of America and leading restaurants across the country. A sampling from the menu includes delicious items such as Fresh Basil & Tomato Salad with Grilled Chicken, Homestyle Meatloaf, Classic Five Layer Lasagna and Shrimp Scampi. In addition, all menus are developed in conjunction with a staff of registered dietitians, so customers can feel secure in knowing these delicious entrees and desserts are appropriate to help them meet their lifestyle, diet and nutritional needs.
Once an order is created, chefs prepare the meals fresh in restaurant- style kitchens and immediately seal in the freshness with proprietary packaging. With this stay-fresh packaging, eDiets DeliciouslyYours guarantees a full 14-day shelf life from the day of receipt when the product is kept chilled in a refrigerator. The service is available throughout the continental United States, and meals can be delivered to the home, office or a hotel.
eDiets DeliciouslyYours is also the only major meal plan from a national weight-loss company that includes full membership to a proven online weight loss community. Customers on this delicious weight loss program can receive personal support from registered dietitians and certified personal trainers and 24/7/365 access to over 150 support boards, through which they can garner real-time motivation and support from eDiets' on-staff experts and member peers.
"We are honored that eDiets has been selected by Epicurious.com as the country's top diet meal delivery service," said Steve Rattner, president of eDiets. "As the premier online diet, fitness and healthy living destination, we know that better-tasting food is key to helping people stick to a diet, and we have taken unprecedented steps to provide unmatched freshness, taste, quality and variety of foods. To earn such high praise from one of the most influential and respected food sites affirms that we are offering customers more than other national weight-loss companies."
Information and registration for eDiets DeliciouslyYours is available at http://www.DeliciouslyYours.com. To view Epicurious.com's comprehensive guide to selecting a diet meal delivery service, please visit: http://www.epicurious.com/cooking/healthy/diet_delivery/index.
About eDiets
Headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, FL, eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET - News) is a premier online diet, fitness, and healthy living destination offering professional advice, information, products and services to those seeking to improve their health and longevity. In addition to offering more than 20 personalized online nutrition and fitness programs and around-the-clock expert and peer-based online support services, eDiets.com members enjoy direct access to a wealth professional advice, information, and motivation from the company's network of health industry experts in a variety of fields, including nutrition, fitness, and motivation, among others. Founded in 1996 and with more than two million membership subscriptions sold to date, eDiets.com operates Web sites at http://www.eDiets.com, http://www.edietscorporateservices.com, http://www.eFitness.com, http://www.DeliciouslyYours.com and http://www.GleeMagazine.com, and publishes a family of industry-leading opt-in electronic newsletters that reach millions of health-conscious consumers nationwide.
About Epicurious.com
Epicurious.com, a CondeNet site, is a premier award-winning food Web site, which incorporates more than 25,000 professionally tested recipes from the premier brands in food journalism, Gourmet and Bon Appetit magazines, as well as web-exclusive original recipes from top chefs and cookbook authors around the world. It also contains over 35,000 member submitted recipes. Epicurious offers a wealth of articles and tips focused on cooking, entertaining, wine, cocktails, and shopping.
*Zone Chefs® is a registered trademark of Zone Chefs, LLC. Purefoods(TM) is a trademark of Purfoods, LLC. Jenny Craig® is a registered trademark of Jenny Craig, Inc. Nutrisystem® is a registered trademark of Nutrisystem, Inc.
Still in this waiting for $4. we''ll see
The "DIET" Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.
I will leave you Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread.......
Good trading to all !
Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis
Updated view.......
At the moment the volume has died... :-\
52wk Range: 2.67 - 4.35
Volume: 14,580
Avg Vol (3m): 53,795.5
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
0.09%above 13-day MA
9.47%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 97
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $103.19
P/E Ratio: 74.29
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 11/08/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Sell
Friday's closing chart.......
Wow,look at diet. It's doubled from where i sold it,and i made a profit. Who knew?
I just saw a TV advertisement for their eDiet fresh delivery, so I took a look again. ER Tues. On watch.
eDiets(R) Launches Fresh Meal Delivery Program for alli(R) Users
Wednesday February 27, 6:00 am ET
eDiets' Award-Winning Meal Delivery Plan Completely Customized for alli(R) Program
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla., Feb. 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- eDiets.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: DIET - News), leveraging the power of technology to bring diet, fitness, and healthy lifestyle solutions to everyone, today announced the immediate availability of its fresh meal delivery program specially designed to coordinate with the alli® product for weight loss. The launch follows last week's announcement of the relationship with GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare, maker of alli.
ADVERTISEMENT
eDiets' freshly prepared and delivered meals offer consumers the total package for weight loss, providing an option that has never been available on the market before: the only over-the-counter FDA-approved weight-loss product combined with the convenience of home delivered meals that together will help users reach their optimal weight loss goals.
alli (orlistat 60mg) has become an important aid for losing excess weight, with more than 2 million users since its June 2007 launch. alli is proven effective in combination with any reduced calorie and low fat diet containing less than 30% of calories from fat, and now combined with eDiets, users don't even have to think about what to cook for their next meal.
"eDiets does all of the calorie counting, thinking and planning for the alli program, so users don't need to," said Pamela Ofstein, MS, RD, LD/N, director of nutrition services for eDiets. "This powerful combination makes it easy to follow and provides all the tools and support a dieter needs for success."
eDiets fresh meal delivery plans are available in 5 or 7 day plans for $15.95 a day plus shipping. For more information, visit myalli.com or eDiets.com/offers/alli.
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QuoteI just saw a TV advertisement for their eDiet fresh delivery, so I took a look again. ER Tues. On watch.
Yep, one has to be interested in this company in the current economic environment. Food, health and dieting seem to be independent of the economic cycle, since when the economy was booming in the 90's the dieting market in the US actually shrank.
I love DIET's business but I lost money twice with this stock. Anyway, my hands are a lot stronger now.
The February 27th press release that you posted has some interesting facts.
I'm also curious about today's earnings release. I think the company is now in the right direction, giving primary attention to its meal delivery service, but it's taking a lot of time to really take off. Furthermore revenues have been going down and losses going up on a quarterly basis.
Yet the share price is closer to a 52 week high than a 52 week low, so maybe the market is anticipating that management's strategy will show some fruits in the near future.
I'll also be watching ...
the 3 year chart...