3SOF

Public 3SOF Boards => Previous 3SOF Picks => Topic started by: David Randolph on January 18, 2006, 08:02:09 AM

Title: INSM
Post by: David Randolph on January 18, 2006, 08:02:09 AM
Here's the analysis made yesterday on INSM:

«1. Profile

Insmed (INSM) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of drug candidates for the treatment of metabolic diseases and endocrine disorders with unmet medical needs. For more information, please visit www.insmed.com.

2. Technical Analysis

2.1. Long Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13584;image)

INSM is a publicly traded company since 1991. The stock now is near its long term lows.

2.2. Medium Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13583;image)

After making a not so low low, INSM has been trending higher lately. There can be strong resistance above $4.

2.3. Short Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13582;image)

INSM has a very attractive short term chart, exactly the kind that I want (it's a pity I didn't saw it earlier). Anyway, INSM is enjoying a nice bull trend.

3. Fundamental Analysis

The company is going from bad to worse on a financial perspective. The balance sheet is weak, the company almost has no sales, it is clearly one of those biotech companies, working and sucking capital for 20 years until it finally makes something valuable, or not.

But, INSM finally did it ! Please read this news:

FDA Approves Insmed's Orphan Drug, IPLEX, for the Treatment of Severe Primary IGF-1 Deficiency; The First Once-Daily Therapy for the Treatment of Severe Primary IFG-1 Deficiency (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B9F56C4B3%2D48CF%2D4705%2D9147%2DB312E0180178%7D)

Some highlights:

- "We are very pleased IPLEX was approved, making IPLEX the only approved once-daily IGF-1 replacement therapy available to treat children with severe short stature," stated Geoffrey Allan, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer of Insmed.
- This is also an exciting transition for Insmed as we now begin to focus on the commercialization of IPLEX, which we expect to launch during the second quarter of calendar year 2006."
- Andreas Sommer, Ph.D., Chief Scientific Officer of Insmed added, "This event marks the end of a long road and two decades of hard work by hundreds of dedicated people. I'm thrilled that our visionary efforts have now culminated in making available a novel therapeutic composition for the treatment of children who suffer from Primary IGFD."

I think IPLEX can be a blockbuster drug. This is a major milestone for this company with just $150M in market cap.

4. General Overview

I know many biotech stocks without any product ready for commercialization worth a lot more than INSM. I understand this IPLEX drug and I think its market is huge. Investors are buying the rumor that INSM will produce a lot more revenues and profits, going forward, after 20 years of efforts.

I'm willing to jump on board.»

Given this I'll buy INSM around today's open for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 10% of capital (now it is 10%, remember that).
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: brandyjoco on January 18, 2006, 11:02:25 AM
David,

Thank you for you work on insm.  I bought some this morning before it skyrocketed. I am so glad that you are open to pursuing different trading options: ie long term, fast, etc
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: metro on January 18, 2006, 05:01:16 PM
Good timing on this one David - thanks!
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: shawFund on January 18, 2006, 06:55:51 PM
Hi, David:

  Because you buy it using 10% of the portfolio capital, so the money spent will be around $29,000. Am I right?

  Previous picks are 6.67% of the capital (around $19,000).

  Because the portfolio has 10 picks now. Are you going to add more into the portfolio or wait untill you exit some of the positions before you add more position?

Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: berloga on January 18, 2006, 09:48:07 PM
David, adding to shawFund's question: has the Long Term Portfolio emerged as a "spin-off" from the 3SOF Portfolio, i.e. do you intend to keep $190k in the SOF Portfolio and relocate $100k to the Long Term Portfolio? This way, each set of shares you buy will cost $19000 and $10000, respectively as of Jan. 2006. What's the truth? Thank you.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on January 19, 2006, 08:12:16 AM
Quote from: shawFund on January 18, 2006, 06:55:51 PM
Hi, David:

  Because you buy it using 10% of the portfolio capital, so the money spent will be around $29,000. Am I right?

  Previous picks are 6.67% of the capital (around $19,000).

  Because the portfolio has 10 picks now. Are you going to add more into the portfolio or wait until you exit some of the positions before you add more position?

Good questions shawFund  :) Yes, I bought around $29,000 of INSM and other picks were and are just 6.66% of the portfolio. I'm thinking of selling some shares before I buy new ones.

Quote from: berloga on January 18, 2006, 09:48:07 PM
David, adding to shawFund's question: has the Long Term Portfolio emerged as a "spin-off" from the 3SOF Portfolio, i.e. do you intend to keep $190k in the SOF Portfolio and relocate $100k to the Long Term Portfolio? This way, each set of shares you buy will cost $19000 and $10000, respectively as of Jan. 2006. What's the truth? Thank you.

The Stocks on Fire Portfolio started on April 2005 with $100,000. It is now about $290,000. Previously I bought 6.66% of the portfolio's capital on each position for a maximum of 15 positions at a time. From now on I'll buy 10% of capital in each position (INSM was already 10%, or about $29,000).

The Long Term on Fire Portfolio is a new portfolio, that started yesterday with $100,000. This is fresh new money to invest (half of the money belongs to Ramsburg). We'll buy 10% of the portfolio in each new position, as happened with GIGM and DIET yesterday. Look for the Long Term on Fire Portfolio details here (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3LongTermOF.php).

Thanks for your questions  :)
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Lucas Scott on January 19, 2006, 02:41:37 PM
I sold today at 3.05. Bought at 2.50 a week ago. Watching for reentry at the 9 ema for a quick trade.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on January 23, 2006, 06:41:46 AM
INSM is falling back from an overbought condition, nothing to worry about. I believe I said on the newsletter this was a stock where I would be comfortable if it were to fall 5 or 10% below my buying price. So, here it is, down 3.53% from my buying price, and I feel comfortable holding INSM.

Why? Because, on the second quarter, the company will probably start the commercialization phase of a recently approved FDA medicine: IPLEX. Also because the trend is still bullish, TL2  today stands at $2.63, Friday's low.

I expect INSM to rebound from the last two day's sell off and make new highs soon, so I'll continue holding it.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: brandyjoco on January 23, 2006, 01:22:45 PM
Hello... is anyone there.  Are we all still in this one?
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: das317 on January 23, 2006, 01:30:49 PM
I just bought some more..hope I'm not crazy.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: brandyjoco on January 23, 2006, 02:29:12 PM
I just bought more at 2.43 also.  Hope i'm not crazy.  Sure is a cheap market cap considering it is a Biotech with an FDA approved drug.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: netfishmademerich on January 23, 2006, 09:11:58 PM
I recommend selling INSM.  It has fallen more than 20% off the 52 week high it had hit recently.  I believe the momentum has been lost.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Lucas Scott on January 23, 2006, 10:00:34 PM
Netfish, I respectfully disagree that momentum is lost. INSM bounced off the center BB/ 20 ema today and a lot of bullish stocks do that during their runs. I'll probably get back in tomorrow.   
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: rickjust on January 23, 2006, 10:19:14 PM
Quote from: Lucas Scott on January 23, 2006, 10:00:34 PM
Netfish, I respectfully disagree that momentum is lost. INSM bounced off the center BB/ 20 ema today and a lot of bullish stocks do that during their runs. I'll probably get back in tomorrow.   
hi,
hope your right lucas. i hate starting a trade in the red!
maxi
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on January 24, 2006, 07:44:00 AM
INSM had 3 ugly red candles, which can be interpreted in two ways:

1) The stock was overbought, people are taking profits and the big fellas are shaking the tree.
2) The company itself is selling shares on strength, to capitalize itself.

The first interpretation is bullish, the second one is bearish, and it's hard to know which is which. When in doubt, I go back to read what led me to buy the stock in the first place. Are the arguments still valid? Are they not?

The most important argument that I found was:

«This is also an exciting transition for Insmed as we now begin to focus on the commercialization of IPLEX, which we expect to launch during the second quarter of calendar year 2006."»

This hasn't changed so people will probably buy the dips on INSM until the expectation turns into a fact.

I'll continue holding INSM.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: shawFund on January 24, 2006, 01:20:02 PM
Hi, David:

  Do you have any stop-loss trading plan or simply hold it no matter what happens for this stock?

  For momentum stocks, if it break-down its 9-ema, I will sell it.

Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Lucas Scott on January 24, 2006, 05:06:41 PM
I'm back in at 2.50 today. Pretty cool - I bought at 2.50, sold at 3.05, now back in at 2.50. Lather, rinse, repeat. Today's candle was exactly what I expected to see (which btw only happens maybe 1/3 of the time) - a red candle, retesting yesterday's low and the 20 ema, but not making quite as low a low as yesterday.

White candle is my call for tomorrow :)
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: rickjust on January 24, 2006, 07:03:31 PM
hi,
i saw this similar trading with 'smdi' a few weeks ago. it was stuck at 460 with lots non stop buying all day for aout 3 days, finally it took off above 5.
i noticed today a constant stream of buys at 2.50. this looks like it is setting up to go higher imho,
hope so  ;D,
maxi
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on January 25, 2006, 07:57:54 AM
Quote from: shawFund on January 24, 2006, 01:20:02 PM
Hi, David:

  Do you have any stop-loss trading plan or simply hold it no matter what happens for this stock?

  For momentum stocks, if it break-down its 9-ema, I will sell it.

No, no stop loss, I don't consider INSM just a momentum stock, I also have a fundamental reasoning that keeps me on board despite the short term volatility.

This probably explains the last 4 red candles:

«Item 3.02 Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities

Between January 17, 2006 and January 24, 2006, Insmed Incorporated received notices from holders of its 5.5% Convertible Notes due 2008 - 2010 electing to voluntarily convert $4,175,000 principal amount of Convertible Notes into 3,223,927 shares of common stock at the conversion rate of one share of common stock for each $1.295 in principal amount of the Convertible Notes. The Company also received $3,310,735 from warrant exercises that resulted in 2,434,364 shares of common stock being issued at an exercise price of $1.36. The number of shares issued pursuant to the conversion of the Convertible Notes and exercise of warrants since January 13, 2006, the date of Insmed's last report under Item 3.02, exceeded 1% of Insmed's outstanding common stock on January 18, 2006.

The common stock issued upon the conversion of the Convertible Notes and the warrants was issued in reliance upon the exemptions from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, provided for in Section 3(a)(9) and Section 4(2) thereof and is all currently registered for resale by the holders pursuant to Insmed's Registration Statement on Form S-3 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 8, 2005 (the "Registration Statement").

Following the conversions described above, $6,013,000 principal amount of the Convertible Notes remained outstanding. In addition, because certain of the Convertible Notes were converted prior to the March 1, 2006 quarterly interest payment, the Company issued an additional 24,068 shares of common stock for the forfeited cash interest payment at a conversion price of $1.295. A summary of the terms of the Convertible Notes and the warrants, including the conversion features and interest payments of the Convertible Notes was previously provided in the Registration Statement and Insmed's Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 16, 2005 (the "Current Report"). The forms of the Convertible Notes and the warrants were filed on a Current Report filed with the SEC on March 16, 2005. The Registration Statement, the Current Report, the forms of the Convertible Notes and warrants are each incorporated herein by reference.»

Probably these 3,223,927+2,434,364+24,068 = 5,682,359 shares were sold in the open market by these previous bond holders for about a 100% profit.

Over the last 5 day's about 28 million shares changed hands so I guess these 5.68 million shares were already sold.

Nothing to worry about, I expect INSM to recover all its losses and make new highs above $3.35 soon.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: shawFund on January 25, 2006, 03:34:39 PM
Took position the third time on INSM today.

At least it should have a mini bull run.

Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Lucas Scott on January 25, 2006, 05:16:59 PM
QuoteWhite candle is my call for tomorrow

Wow, call me Kreskin! My call for tomorrow is another white candle. If I get it right, I might start charging for my predictions! >:D
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: stocky on January 26, 2006, 01:03:38 AM
Interesting play. Will put on radar for tomorrow.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on January 26, 2006, 05:54:13 AM
Quote from: Lucas Scott on January 25, 2006, 05:16:59 PM
QuoteWhite candle is my call for tomorrow

Wow, call me Kreskin! My call for tomorrow is another white candle. If I get it right, I might start charging for my predictions! >:D

Yeah, nice call Lucas Scott  :)

I was losing 11% yesterday, now only 3.5%, and I guess I'll end the week winning. If it were just for technical analysis, probably I would be out with a loss now, but there's a fundamental background to this trade, a sound one, I believe.

INSM will probably launch IPLEX for commercialization over the 2nd quarter of 2006. It is just a $148M market cap. I think it will be at least $300M before the second quarter ends, so I'll continue holding INSM.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: finagler on January 27, 2006, 11:30:52 AM
Dilution is the reason for todays pullback. Total shares outstanding are about 55 Million


Form 8-K for INSMED INC


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24-Jan-2006

Sale of Equity



Item 3.02 Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Between January 17, 2006 and January 24, 2006, Insmed Incorporated received notices from holders of its 5.5% Convertible Notes due 2008 - 2010 electing to voluntarily convert $4,175,000 principal amount of Convertible Notes into 3,223,927 shares of common stock at the conversion rate of one share of common stock for each $1.295 in principal amount of the Convertible Notes. The Company also received $3,310,735 from warrant exercises that resulted in 2,434,364 shares of common stock being issued at an exercise price of $1.36. The number of shares issued pursuant to the conversion of the Convertible Notes and exercise of warrants since January 13, 2006, the date of Insmed's last report under Item 3.02, exceeded 1% of Insmed's outstanding common stock on January 18, 2006.

The common stock issued upon the conversion of the Convertible Notes and the warrants was issued in reliance upon the exemptions from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, provided for in
Section 3(a)(9) and Section 4(2) thereof and is all currently registered for resale by the holders pursuant to Insmed's Registration Statement on Form S-3 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 8, 2005 (the "Registration Statement").

Following the conversions described above, $6,013,000 principal amount of the Convertible Notes remained outstanding. In addition, because certain of the Convertible Notes were converted prior to the March 1, 2006 quarterly interest payment, the Company issued an additional 24,068 shares of common stock for the forfeited cash interest payment at a conversion price of $1.295. A summary of the terms of the Convertible Notes and the warrants, including the conversion features and interest payments of the Convertible Notes was previously provided in the Registration Statement and Insmed's Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 16, 2005 (the "Current Report"). The forms of the Convertible Notes and the warrants were filed on a Current Report filed with the SEC on March 16, 2005. The Registration Statement, the Current Report, the forms of the Convertible Notes and warrants are each incorporated herein by reference.

Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: brandyjoco on January 27, 2006, 12:06:57 PM
Painful.... Hope it recovers soon. I'm holding long term  - anyone else?
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: 422fwhp on January 28, 2006, 02:57:23 PM
I nibbled a bit at $2.52
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on January 29, 2006, 07:10:24 PM
QuoteDilution is the reason for todays pullback. Total shares outstanding are about 55 Million

Hello finagler, actually I think the share count is more than 55 million. Over the last 10-Q filed with the SEC we have this:

«As of November 1, 2005, the latest practicable date, there were 54,425,460 shares of Insmed Incorporated common stock outstanding.»

We also have this:

«On March 15, 2005, the Company entered into several purchase agreements with a group of institutional investors, pursuant to which the Company issued and sold to the investors approximately $35,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.5% convertible notes, which notes are convertible into common stock, par value $0.01 per share, as well as warrants to purchase, in the aggregate, 14,864,883 shares of common stock, at an exercise price of $1.36 per share. The principal of each note will mature and be payable in nine quarterly installments of approximately $3,890,000 commencing on March 1, 2008. Any outstanding notes must be repaid in cash or converted by March 1, 2010. As of June 1st, 2005, the holders of the notes began to receive interest payments at a rate of 5.5% per annum. Interest on the notes is payable quarterly until March 1st, 2010. The holders of the notes may convert the notes into common stock at a conversion price of $1.295 per share as adjusted in accordance with certain adjustments for stock splits, dividends and the like at any time prior to the close of business on March 1, 2010. The notes are convertible into, in the aggregate, 27,027,027 shares of common stock. The warrants are immediately exercisable for 14,864,883 shares of common stock at an exercise price of $1.36 per share. The warrants will expire on March 15, 2010. The holders of the notes have the right to require the Company to repurchase the notes with cash payments up the occurrence of specified "events of default" and "repurchase events." The investors also have the right to participate in future financings undertaken by the Company prior to March 16, 2005, subject to certain exceptions. In connection with issuance of the notes and warrants, the Company entered into registration rights agreements with the investors pursuant to which the Company agreed to file a Registration Statement under the Securities Act of 1933, registering for resale the shares of common stock issuable upon the conversion of the notes or exercise of the warrants.

On August 19, 2005 holders of the notes began converting their notes into common shares of Insmed stock. As of September 30, 2005 $10,824,000 of convertible debt has been converted into 8,358,301 shares resulting in an accelerated amount of discounts of approximately $4.5 million.

So, of those 27,027,027 shares bond investors already converted 8,358,301. At that date there were still 27,027,027 - 8,358,301= 18,668,726 shares to be converted from notes outstanding.

Then, on January 13th, 2006, we got this:

«Between December 28, 2005 and January 12, 2006, Insmed Incorporated received notices from holders of its 5.5% Convertible Notes due 2008 - 2010 electing to voluntarily convert $1,250,000 principal amount of Convertible Notes into 965,250 shares of common stock at the conversion rate of one share of common stock for each $1.295 in principal amount of the Convertible Notes. The Company also received $5,831,794 from warrant exercises that resulted in 4,192,768 shares of common stock being issued. 370,370 shares were issued at an exercise price of $1.71 and 3,822,398 shares were issued at an exercise price of $1.36»

So, at this time we had 18,668,726 - 965,250 = 17,703,476 shares to be converted. And, from those convertible warrants we had 14,864,883 - 4,192,768 = 10,672,115.

But, on January 24 we got more of the same, bond holders converting notes and warrants into common stock:

«Between January 17, 2006 and January 24, 2006, Insmed Incorporated received notices from holders of its 5.5% Convertible Notes due 2008 - 2010 electing to voluntarily convert $4,175,000 principal amount of Convertible Notes into 3,223,927 shares of common stock at the conversion rate of one share of common stock for each $1.295 in principal amount of the Convertible Notes. The Company also received $3,310,735 from warrant exercises that resulted in 2,434,364 shares of common stock being issued at an exercise price of $1.36.»

So, from notes we still have 17,703,476-3,223,927 = 14,479,549 shares. From warrants we still have 10,672,115 - 2,434,364 = 8,237,751.

I believe the share count now is about 54.43 million + 10.82 million = 65.25 million, so the market cap is something like $166.39M.

These bond holders can convert notes at $1.295 and warrants at $1.36, so they see the current $2.55 stock price as a good deal. If they didn't convert, they would see their investment yield about 27.5% in profits until 2010. This way they're making about 92% in profits. In these bond investors heads, they don't see the company's potential, just that they were to get 27.5% profits and now they have 92% profits.

They don't have any interest to convert at prices below $1.70. And insiders also exercised options at $1.43 just before iPlex was FDA approved.

I've listened to the last conference call from the company, but they didn't said much, just that they're expecting to start commercialization of iPlex on the second quarter of 2006 and they will share details over the next conference call, when they present and discuss full year results with analysts.

In sum, I think the current weakness on INSM shares is due to bond holders converting notes and warrants into common shares and selling them in the open market for a superior profit. If the price goes down from current levels they will stop converting and there won't be so much selling pressure. The market still needs to absorb about 22.7 million shares before these guys are out of the way.

This can be done in a few days if we get positive follow through at next conference call.

I believe INSM has some problems from the past (some litigation issues also), but the future is bright. The company has never been so close to profitability as it is now. Analysts expect 2006 revenues of $7.84M against $130K in 2005.

I think we'll see $4.28 before the second quarter ends and I'll take profits around that level.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: wisebuys on January 29, 2006, 10:19:04 PM
They don't have any interest to convert at prices below $1.70. And insiders also exercised options at $1.43 just before iPlex was FDA approved.

Hi David.  Please tell me the $1.70 should be $2.70 and I'll sleep better tonight.

Have a GRRRRRREAT DAY !!!!!
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: berloga on January 29, 2006, 11:10:28 PM

Hi David,

Thank you for the detailed analysis. Perhaps I am being somewhat naive, but here is what I see: you short sell REDF (they got $600M in market cap and $14.5M in sales) and yet you hold long INSM (their cap is $160M and projected revenue is ~$8M). The ratios are very small if one takes revenue/cap. And now we see the bond holders pull back from INSM, why? If the future is bright, can they wait the 3 months and cash out then (together with us!)?
Cheers.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: brandyjoco on January 29, 2006, 11:47:49 PM
Why is their projected revenue only 8million? Is that for this quarter only?  The drug that got FDA approved is for a possible $400 million sales market - isn't it? Of course, they will share the market with TRCA.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on January 30, 2006, 03:52:13 AM
Quote from: wisebuys on January 29, 2006, 10:19:04 PM
They don't have any interest to convert at prices below $1.70. And insiders also exercised options at $1.43 just before iPlex was FDA approved.

Hi David.  Please tell me the $1.70 should be $2.70 and I'll sleep better tonight.

Have a GRRRRRREAT DAY !!!!!

The way to sleep better is to hold about 10 different stocks, instead of just 1 or 2  :)

Quote from: berloga on January 29, 2006, 11:10:28 PM

Hi David,

Thank you for the detailed analysis. Perhaps I am being somewhat naive, but here is what I see: you short sell REDF (they got $600M in market cap and $14.5M in sales) and yet you hold long INSM (their cap is $160M and projected revenue is ~$8M). The ratios are very small if one takes revenue/cap. And now we see the bond holders pull back from INSM, why? If the future is bright, can they wait the 3 months and cash out then (together with us!)?
Cheers.

The difference between REDF and INSM is that revenue growth at REDF is 44% where revenue growth at INSM is at least 6000%.

I think bondholders don't care much about future prospects, because that involves risk. If they can get nice profits for sure, they'll take them. Bond investors don't like risk, that's why they're bond investors, not stock investors.

Quote from: brandyjoco on January 29, 2006, 11:47:49 PM
Why is their projected revenue only 8million? Is that for this quarter only? The drug that got FDA approved is for a possible $400 million sales market - isn't it? Of course, they will share the market with TRCA.

There's only one analyst covering INSM and he projects 2006 revenue at $7.84 million, I don't know why. Probably that's because INSM will take some time to commercialize iPlex and 2006 will only see a couple of months of sales.

But you're right, the potential market for iPlex is $400M and they have only one competitor (it seems INSM's treatment has some advantages over TRCA's), so over the long run (perhaps in 2007 or 2008) we may have $200 or $300M in revenues at INSM.

The biotech industry has an average 19.76 P/S ratio, if we apply this to INSM we could have something like $4B in market cap, or 20 times more than what it is now  :o

But we need patience ... after I get some more details at next conference call I may consider INSM for the Long Term on Fire Portfolio.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: 422fwhp on January 30, 2006, 07:31:47 AM
Seems to be trending down.

Still a hold...long term but not short term?

Thanks...Jody
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on January 30, 2006, 08:06:42 AM
Quote from: 422fwhp on January 30, 2006, 07:31:47 AM
Seems to be trending down.

Still a hold...long term but not short term?

Thanks...Jody

The update is on the previous page Jody, there I say, among other things, the following:

QuoteIn sum, I think the current weakness on INSM shares is due to bond holders converting notes and warrants into common shares and selling them in the open market for a superior profit. If the price goes down from current levels they will stop converting and there won't be so much selling pressure. The market still needs to absorb about 22.7 million shares before these guys are out of the way.

This can be done in a few days if we get positive follow through at next conference call.

I believe INSM has some problems from the past (some litigation issues also), but the future is bright. The company has never been so close to profitability as it is now. Analysts expect 2006 revenues of $7.84M against $130K in 2005.

I think we'll see $4.28 before the second quarter ends and I'll take profits around that level.

So, I'll continue holding  :)
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on January 31, 2006, 05:27:40 AM
As I see it, INSM is short term weak because of note holders converting into common shares and selling them in the open market for a superior profit. If their profit is no longer superior when compared with the interest they will receive on the notes, they will stop converting and stop selling common shares.

In the meantime, future prospects at the company are bright. They have a drug, iPlex, approved for commercialization, more effective than it's lonesome competitor's drug.

When note holders are out of the way and the company expresses more details about the commercialization process to start in the second quarter of 2006, the stock will rise to values above $4.

I'm willing to allow it fluctuate over the short term so I collect a big gain a few months from now.  I will bear the risk.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on February 01, 2006, 06:38:37 AM
Nice candle on INSM yesterday  :) I see the stock consolidating around current levels (maybe push higher some more) for some time, as note holders are absorbed by the market (probably they won't sell everything they have now, that would not be smart from them - if I know the type, I would say they will convert and sell about half of the notes at this time).

Then INSM will push to new highs, I don't know what price, when we get more information about the commercialization process and details on price, size of the market, etc.

By the way, people talk of a market for iPlex between $200 and $400 million per year. Anybody knows from where do these estimates come from?

I'll work on this, the potential size of the market for iPlex, on the update. In the meantime, I'll continue holding this promising biotech stock.

Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: netfishmademerich on February 01, 2006, 08:58:42 PM
I spent nearly an hour this afternoon to try and find this article I read sometime ago about iplex and insm.  To this end I must say I failed and was not able to find it.  Anyways the article was something I stumbled upon while reading the Yahoo message board and following various links.  I`m hoping somebody else might have read this article and might have saved it.  The article mentioned that insm is in litigation because of it's marketing practice with regards to iplex which is a drug to treat a musclular degeneration condition of which there are only around 80,000 people in the US who are affected by it. In anycase if that is true the market for the drug is quite limited.  DISCLAIMER:  I have sold my small position in insm on the same day I recommend the same action and posted to the board.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: AussieTrader on February 02, 2006, 01:06:20 AM
Hey David, NetFish and others, this might be what you refer to I haven't had time to consider how/if this impacts potential revenue from the drug relative to current INSM revenues:

IPLEX summary: The targeted treatment indication for iPlex is Primary IGFD which encompasses a variety of genetic and acquired conditions in which the action of growth hormone (GH) is absent or attenuated resulting in low serum levels of IGF-I

Source: http://www.drugs.com/iplex.html

Primary IGFD Study: The study, known as Sub-study 6 of the National Cooperative Growth Study, found that among IGF-1 deficient short stature patients, non-growth hormone deficient Primary IGFD was approximately as frequent as growth hormone deficiency itself. This relative prevalence suggests that approximately 30,000 children in the United States have short stature due to non-growth hormone deficiency, Primary IGFD. It also suggests that approximately one-third to one-half of idiopathic short stature children can be re-classified as Primary IGFD.

Source: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=24493
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: jlong on February 02, 2006, 02:58:00 AM
Found a site that has some good info on insm.... http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1433
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Michael on February 02, 2006, 12:19:47 PM
I have got my shares so let the waiting game start! It might take 1 week, 1 month or 1 year but Insmed is worth a lot more than 2.32  (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3073)

The approval of Iplex for Severe Primary IGFD can justify a share price of at least $4 but the approval clears the road for the other indications where Iplex has shown significant efficiency:


Insmed is in phase II or III trials for these indications.

The rest of the pipeline is interesting as well but Insmed has turned a corner and it is the immediate commercial perspectives that make this yet another excellent 3SOF pick.

Mike
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: basonista on February 02, 2006, 05:26:36 PM
I have been watching this thread with interest ever since David bought into INSM.  Unfortunately, or I guess fortunately now ;), I had no free money to put into it at that time so just watched from the sidelines.  I have some free cash now (woo hoo) and think that INSM is ready for a run again.  As the chart shows, INSM has been in a bull pennant (continuation pattern) since it's run up to the middle of last month.  This is a strongly confimed formation with 4 hits on both the top and the bottom of the pennant.

A few things lead me to believe that this is ready to move again:
1.  The bull pennant is getting to the point where the end of the flag is closing - meaning that the stock will have to either breakout above or below the pattern.
2.  The pennant has intersected with TL1 which should prove to be another element of support to help the stock break out to the upside.
3.  All of this is happening on generally lower and lower volume which is a good thing as a stock moves through a continuation pattern.

I will be looking to buy in around $2.25 tomorrow. ;D
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: oicpecnoc on February 02, 2006, 10:47:52 PM
David,

I really think that this should go in the 3sof long portfolio.  You added a couple on the way up in gigm and diet, and I think adding one on the way down that clearly has some true long term potential as Michael stated would make some sense.  JMHO
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: la-onda on February 03, 2006, 06:03:37 AM
fyi:
INSM: Short Interest DN 23.7% to 4.0M in Jan 2006
Wednesday, January 25, 2006 16:20 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Insmed Incorporated (NasdaqNM: INSM) DECREASED 23.7% to 4,017,752 shares for the month ended mid-January, 2006.

SYMBOL      DECEMBER      JANUARY          CHANGE       %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
INSM           5,269,048       4,017,752      -1,251,296       -23.75%           2

Based on INSM's 20-day average daily share volume of 3,515,880, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on February 03, 2006, 06:59:35 AM
Great information and analysis on this thread, thanks a lot  :)

There are some conflicts, netfishmademerich says the market for iPlex is potentially just 30,000 children, but Michael talks about other applications for iPlex which are very interesting. Aussietrader and jlong gave us great links with information on INSM, basonista made an informative (and correct, in my view) technical analysis. Finally oicpecnoc said INSM should be a long term investment, not just a trade and la-onda posted short interest on the stock, which is declining (I'm finding that short interest in stocks is quite a different thing than in the futures market - in the futures markets, the more shorts the better (for longs), in stocks it's not like that, since there are so many stocks, it looks like if there are a lot of people long or short a stock, they will just spread their point of view and eventually make it go their way  ::))

When I first look at INSM, I have to be honest, I thought the drug could eventually be used to treat children that don't grow as much as they "should". Every small children (say, small being 10 or 20% less than the average height of kids with the same age) could take the medicine. The market would be huge, then. But, now it seems the drug was approved just for Severe Primary IGFD, whatever that means ... but, if I read Michael's comments correctly, he says: «Expand Short Stature». Does this mean the drug can be approved, in the future, for this application?

As I read it, iPlex is just for children which are expected to be just 1.10 - 1.40m tall when they reach 18 years old, right? But, can't it be used to expand stature from, say, expected 1.60 to 1.75m?

If there is a strong chance that iPlex can, in the future, be used to increase stature expectations, the market for the drug would be immense and I would buy it with a long term perspective.

Let us study some more ... again, thanks for the great info  :)

In the meantime, technically INSM just touched TL1 and yet it closed at support of $2.37. I guess the stock goes higher from here, I'll continue holding it anyway.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: brandyjoco on February 03, 2006, 06:12:43 PM
News of a future $75 million shelf by INSM:

They have about $20 cash or more now - are they trying to gear up to manufacture the drug that they need in the second quarter?

http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060203:MTFH64534_2006-02-03_22-44-58_WNA0849&symbol=INSM.O
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: peteus on February 03, 2006, 07:22:12 PM
Randolph & members,
How will this news reflect on INSM pps on Monday? Could we expect big sell off at market open or even in pre market? It seems that after hours pps already declined. What is the best course of action?
Thank you
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: brandyjoco on February 03, 2006, 07:56:52 PM
I think it may go down. I guess I will be sitting on this one for a long time - a year? INSM is just starting out. If they expect to sell $50 million in product in the next few quarters then (I assume)  they need to have at least 60% available  of that for product manufacturing costs. VPHM's stock price started out really low (over a year ago) in the same fashion.

When some substantial sales are reported in a quarter then this stock will skyrocket. Until then we may be sitting on this for awhile. Who knows - maybe they have an investor sitting on the sidelines...

Anyone else with an opinion? I hate to cut a loss this early in the process.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: stocky on February 03, 2006, 10:04:03 PM
Read 'Dilution'.

I dont hold this stock now but wish goodluck to all holders. If David is still positive on this then I may consider starting a small position if stock falls a lot at market open. Though would still wait and watch.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: yukii on February 03, 2006, 10:29:10 PM
The filing is merely a formality to enable INSM to get financing that we all knew it is needed...on their own terms..mind you.

However, the timing...nor the pricing have yet been determined.

It could be next week....or next month........

The shares could be priced at $2, $3, $4...who knows??
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Jimbo on February 04, 2006, 05:28:32 AM
Quote from: peteus on February 03, 2006, 07:22:12 PM
Randolph & members,
How will this news reflect on INSM pps on Monday? Could we expect big sell off at market open or even in pre market? It seems that after hours pps already declined. What is the best course of action?
Thank you

peteus,

So far we know they intend to sell $75 million in mixed securities but not at once and no date. Most probably we might see dip down due to  panic sell off on Monday morning, but of course that also could be a buying opportunity  ;).

Here is a copy of the news release:

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
  February 03, 2006 18:18 ET (23:18 GMT)

DJ Insmed Registers $75M Mixed Securities Shelf >INSM

  WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Insmed Inc. (INSM) filed on Friday a shelf registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell from time to time $75 million in mixed securities.
  Under the registration, Insmed may issue common stock, preferred stock and warrants.
  The company said it would use proceeds from any issuance under the registration for research and development, product marketing and general corporate purposes.
 

 
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: oicpecnoc on February 04, 2006, 10:42:06 AM
David,

Just a side thought about insm or anything considered for the long portfolio.  I think once a stock reaches a 100% gain, all bets should be off as far as how long it will be held.  If this drops anywhere near 2.00 monday, its a no brain hollder for a 100% gain to $4 long term, whether that is 3 months or 3 years.  I woudn't lock a stock into being in the long term portolio if it reaches 100% faster than the 2-3 year outlook.  Anything less, yes, call it long term.  But once it has reached 100% even a long term investmet should be re-evaluated.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: basonista on February 04, 2006, 11:13:01 PM
Quote from: Jimbo on February 04, 2006, 05:28:32 AM
Quote from: peteus on February 03, 2006, 07:22:12 PM
Randolph & members,
How will this news reflect on INSM pps on Monday? Could we expect big sell off at market open or even in pre market? It seems that after hours pps already declined. What is the best course of action?
Thank you

peteus,

So far we know they intend to sell $75 million in mixed securities but not at once and no date. Most probably we might see dip down due to  panic sell off on Monday morning, but of course that also could be a buying opportunity ;).

Here is a copy of the news release:

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
  February 03, 2006 18:18 ET (23:18 GMT)

DJ Insmed Registers $75M Mixed Securities Shelf >INSM

  WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Insmed Inc. (INSM) filed on Friday a shelf registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell from time to time $75 million in mixed securities.
  Under the registration, Insmed may issue common stock, preferred stock and warrants.
  The company said it would use proceeds from any issuance under the registration for research and development, product marketing and general corporate purposes.


I'm wondering if this isn't mostly priced into the stock already.  INSM is down 30% from it's latest high of $3.35 to it's Friday afternoon close of $2.33 (not counting the after hours activity).  Who knows how low it will go but if this stock has such potential, a rebound is inevitable.

Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Terliso on February 04, 2006, 11:31:30 PM
**When +DI is on top, the trend is up, go LONG baby ;)
**When -DI is on top, this indicates that bears are very strong.. Go SHORT my friends :D

The best time to use a trend-following method is when ADX is rising and is above the lower directional line. Those are two signs of dynamic trends ;)

I believe by combining MACD Divergence, Smoothed ROC & The Directional System you can catch an uptrend in the very beginning.. Don't pay attention too much on RSI indicator it will give you a premature buying & selling point ;)

Terlisa ;)

P.S. I'm sorry, I posted two identical charts of INSM, I just want to see the difference ;)
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: peteus on February 05, 2006, 08:51:03 AM
Terlisa,
Thanks for posting excellent analysis. From messages I read on 3sof, I like your trading style. What will be the best book or site where I can learn about ADX, MACD, ROC and other signals. I dont like holding stocks for long, so I want to focus on trades that last from few minutes to few days.

Also, if it is not to much to ask, where did you do your charts (I couldn't find smoothed ROC at Stockcharts.com) and which brockerage is good for lots of trading. I have account at OptionsXpress but I am not interested in options any more and fees are starting to bother me.
Thx
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Terliso on February 05, 2006, 05:26:24 PM
Quote from: peteus on February 05, 2006, 08:51:03 AM
Terlisa,
Thanks for posting excellent analysis. From messages I read on 3sof, I like your trading style. What will be the best book or site where I can learn about ADX, MACD, ROC and other signals. I dont like holding stocks for long, so I want to focus on trades that last from few minutes to few days.

Also, if it is not to much to ask, where did you do your charts (I couldn't find smoothed ROC at Stockcharts.com) and which brockerage is good for lots of trading. I have account at OptionsXpress but I am not interested in options any more and fees are starting to bother me.
Thx

Subscribe @ www.stockfetcher.com ($8.95 - $44.95), they all have these oscillators, indicators, trend-following system.. you name it ;)
Books: "Trading For A Living" is the best one i would recommend..
Brokers: I'm not really good at finding brokers, I'm using TD Waterhouse, they charging me for unlimited shares for just $9.95 ;) You need to make 30 trades within 90 days to get that commission. But now, Ameritrade & TD Waterhouse has merged. I do not know if they still offering that kind of commission ;)

Tradestation is cheaper, but there is limitation if i'm not mistaken..
** 100 shares for $1
** 500 shares for $5
**1000 shares for $8

Goodluck!! ;)
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on February 06, 2006, 07:35:56 AM
We had this news on Friday after the market close: Insmed files $75M shelf registration with SEC (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=&dateid=38751.7313020718-859298803)

Probably there will be a gap down at today's open, however, I think there's no surprise on this filing, obviously, with such a weak balance sheet, INSM would need financing to produce and market iPlex at the 2nd quarter of 2006.

The company has a plan, a product to sell and approval to do it from the FDA. Now it needs investor's money to pursuit that plan. This is what investing is all about.

Today's gap down and news won't make me bail out of INSM. In fact, considering all I've read and studied on this company, I'll use the opportunity to buy shares for the long term, as suggested by some of 3 SOF dear subscribers.

I'll buy, around the open, $10,000 of INSM stock for the Long Term on Fire Portfolio.
Title: INSM for the long term
Post by: David Randolph on February 06, 2006, 07:39:23 AM
Today, around the open, I'll buy INSM for the Long Term on Fire Portfolio, 10% of the portfolio as always.

This move is related to this post on INSM thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4327.msg44920#msg44920) on the Stocks on Fire Message Board.

Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: valueseeker on February 06, 2006, 09:09:37 AM
Has the price set for the new filing?
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Fré on February 06, 2006, 04:52:58 PM
I would like to get some INSM shares, but can someone make a new Technical Analysis, since the stock broke 2.37 support.

When would be a good buy opportunity?
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Terliso on February 06, 2006, 05:20:51 PM
Quote from: Fré on February 06, 2006, 04:52:58 PM
I would like to get some INSM shares, but can someone make a new Technical Analysis, since the stock broke 2.37 support.

When would be a good buy opportunity?

Scroll up.. I just made an analysis 2 days ago if that interested you ;)
I believe this is not the best time to go LONG in INSM yet.. be patience for now ;)

David, I'm not against on your analysis, I respect your analysis.. I'm just following the Trend-Following system ;)
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on February 07, 2006, 07:15:23 AM
Quote from: valueseeker on February 06, 2006, 09:09:37 AM
Has the price set for the new filing?

No, no price set, yet: «Insmed may sell these securities in one or more separate offerings in amounts, at prices and on terms to be determined at the time of such offer or offerings.»

Quote from: Fré on February 06, 2006, 04:52:58 PM
I would like to get some INSM shares, but can someone make a new Technical Analysis, since the stock broke 2.37 support.

When would be a good buy opportunity?

Well, I would say that yesterday was a good buying opportunity, because I bought $10,000 of INSM yesterday  ;D The stock made a doji, which shows indecision by traders, which is often seen at bottoms. A bit below the current price you have the 50 day moving average, at $2.02, which usually provides support to medium term ascending trends.

You can see on the chart that TL1 was broken on the downside, but, be carefull, again, because it was a doji. You can see the stock come back up the trendline again, no problem with that.

So, INSM is short term undecided, the news took it down (perhaps it was down before also because of the news released yesterday), but medium and long term the chart is still bullish.

Traders now are focused on the short term downtrend and the shelf registration, but soon they will turn their heads to the commercialization process of iPlex, and that will make the stock make a new leg up to new highs above $4.

I'll continue holding INSM, both on a short and long term perspective.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: shawFund on February 07, 2006, 06:56:12 PM
For bio play, I prefer EPIX.

Its medicine already approved in Europe and approved in USA but needs additional Phase III result.

Its shares have dropped from a high of $25 to a low of < $4 and is in recovering stage.

Look at ELN, it recovered from $3.5 to $13 and I believe EPIX may be doing the same.



Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: netfishmademerich on February 07, 2006, 07:58:53 PM
I think it is a good time to buy some INSM.  I'd use a very tight stop, but it appears ready for an advance now.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: ScottishTrader on February 09, 2006, 07:34:31 AM
Looks like the bodybuilders who like to dabble in anabolic steroids are also REALLY looking forward to getting their hands on Insmed's drugs as well.

Maybe a little of an aside, but makes for some interesting reading as to what their drugs actually do:

http://www.anabolex.com/forums/showthread.php?t=154120

Also, having a look at their website - what looks to be really interesting and have major potential is IPlex's efficacy in reducing insulin requirements for diabetics. It looks like they have completed Phase II trials for IPlex application to diabetes, and the results are fairly convincing so far.  If Insmed get approval for this application, then they could have a HUGE drug on their hands :o

http://www.insmed.com/secondary.asp?title=Clinical%20Trials&section=productpipeline&ptype=Diabetes (http://www.insmed.com/secondary.asp?title=Clinical%20Trials&section=productpipeline&ptype=Diabetes)

and they are represented on the panel for a Diabetes Session next week -
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600811390&tid=insm&sid=1600811390&mid=65272

looks like their approach could stir some interest, approval of Phase III may not be too far away.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: David Randolph on February 09, 2006, 08:35:03 AM
I was reading about INSM's pipeline but I don't have time to study it now (it looks very promising, and the website is great).

If you have time, take a look at INSM's pipeline (http://www.insmed.com/secondary.asp?title=Overview&section=productpipeline) and possibly buy it for the long term as I did  :)
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: 422fwhp on February 09, 2006, 09:56:43 PM
Three soldiers are a welcome sight!  Looking good so far.

Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: Lucas Scott on February 10, 2006, 02:29:03 PM
David, that's a small pipeline - 2 drugs ??? And Drug #2 is just entering Phase I. It looks bigger than it is because they list several potential applications for Drug #1 (IPLEX).
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: ScottishTrader on February 10, 2006, 02:32:50 PM
But considering that IPlex could have major applications, it really ain't too bad - I mean just look at the run VPHM has had off of its one drug (and they didn't even develop it!!)  I agree that for a 2 drug company its been a long time in the making, but IPlex has the potential to be very big in a lot of different areas, just as long as people who take it for diabetes don't end up being enormous!!!
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Lucas Scott on February 10, 2006, 04:09:55 PM
Limit order to sell at $2.50 just missed by 2 cents. I had to settle for $2.40.  I think it will retest the recent $2.10 low. I will reevaluate next week to determine a re-entry.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: cjm on February 10, 2006, 04:37:49 PM

You can review their product pipeline in the link below

http://www.insmed.com/secondary.asp?title=Overview&section=productpipeline



Another informative site on INSM is:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1433



Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: beroznikmal on February 13, 2006, 12:55:27 PM
I have been holding ever since David had recommended this stock. But, I am more and more convinced that this is forming a head and shoulder pattern. Or could it be that INSM is trying to fill the gap at $2.25?

Thanks
Beroz
Title: Re: INSM is NOT on fire and I DO NOT like it
Post by: Lucas Scott on February 13, 2006, 01:42:52 PM
Beroz - interesting chart. I hadn't noticed the H&S. Looks like that might be what we're seeing. I said I sold on Friday, but actually got left with a partial position. 3/4 of my shares sold at $2.40 but they didn't take my last 300. I hate partial fills!! >:(   
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: beroznikmal on February 13, 2006, 04:51:46 PM
Looks like INSM is at a very critical point. Closed a tad bit above TL1 and the Neck. Tomorrow will be very interesting.....  :P
I have a decent position and my average is at $2.83. lets see if shit hits the fan tomorrow....
The $compq closed right above the support line. tomorrow will truly be interesting.....

Thanks
Beroz
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: KCScott on February 14, 2006, 11:37:26 AM
I'm in at $2.17 for 2,500 shares and looking to add another 2,500

Is this a Bull Pennant Formation or a Symetrical Triangle?

Either way their both continuation patterns, so "Rock On" INSM

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/INSM2-14-06.jpg)
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on February 15, 2006, 06:10:04 AM
Nice chart KCScott  :)

INSM is still trading around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. It looks like investor's are expecting some more news to move the stock. iPlex's commercialization process is set to start somewhere in the second quarter so between now and then there will be a press release from the company regarding this issue.

I hope they give us some more details about iPlex's market (just for the Severe Primary IGF-1 Deficiency) and for other possible applications for the drug going forward, like the one mentioned by ScottishTrader (diabetes).

Technically the 50 day moving average is providing support, as it should. I'll continue holding INSM.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: rickjust on February 19, 2006, 12:25:28 AM
hi,
long term chart for insm shows a Cup and handle forming. i hope so, like to see it make a move before the end of the contest.
thanks
maxi
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: David Randolph on February 21, 2006, 04:44:30 AM
Thanks for your information and analysis  :)

I've been reading more and more information on INSM and TRCA and my conclusion is that there isn't enough information available to judge if INSM will be a great long term investment or not.

I need to know more about the commercialization process of iPlex. The company estimates it will spend between $20M and $23M with iPlex this year. Now I want to know about timing (when will the drug start selling?), size of the market (websites talk about 60,000 children with GHIS in the US and the EU combined) and the price of the drug.

With the size of the market and the selling price of the drug, we can make some estimates on revenues and eventually, profits.

iPlex's other applications are quite interesting, as Diabetes and Severe Burn Injury, but there can be years from now and their approval by the FDA.

I'll wait for more details at the next conference call, in the meantime, I'll continue holding INSM.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: David Randolph on February 22, 2006, 06:40:41 AM
INSM closed below its 50 day moving average, I can't defend it anymore. I'll take about a 23% loss on INSM around today's open.

I will also sell GIGM with a 66% profit to balance things.

I need to get more active if I want to beat the market.

I'll continue holding both stocks on the Long Term on Fire Portfolio.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: David Randolph on February 27, 2006, 08:27:17 AM
Finally we'll have some more information about INSM and iPlex's commercialization process, as the company will present quarterly results and a conference call next Thursday:

Insmed to Announce 2005 Fourth Quarter and Year End Financial Results; Thursday, March 2 (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=205428&guid=%7B1744B11A%2DA194%2D4A8D%2D8347%2DEBE8B38240BA%7D&symb=)

I'll continue holding INSM for the long term.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: shawFund on February 28, 2006, 02:45:36 AM
Which sectors will be hot 2006?

Housing - no!

Oil - it has been very hot in 2004 and 2005 and unlikely hot this year.

TECH - many be.

Bio - likely. Many bio stocks no matter big or small down big last two years and we may see them up big this year.

So far this year, many bio stocks already gained big such as PPHM, AXYX, INSM, NVAX, AVII, HEB, DIET, ELN, BIIB, NXXI, MRK, PFE, ....

Also PCYC, EPIX, etc may gain 100% to 300% later this year. We may be in the early stage of bio boom this year. Let us find out.





INSM had a nice reversal curve.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: David Randolph on March 01, 2006, 07:47:35 AM
Quote from: shawFund on February 28, 2006, 02:45:36 AM
Which sectors will be hot 2006?

Housing - no!

Oil - it has been very hot in 2004 and 2005 and unlikely hot this year.

TECH - many be.

Bio - likely. Many bio stocks no matter big or small down big last two years and we may see them up big this year.

So far this year, many bio stocks already gained big such as PPHM, AXYX, INSM, NVAX, AVII, HEB, DIET, ELN, BIIB, NXXI, MRK, PFE, ....

Also PCYC, EPIX, etc may gain 100% to 300% later this year. We may be in the early stage of bio boom this year. Let us find out.

INSM had a nice reversal curve.

I've been thinking about it too shawFund, I think your thinking makes perfect sense, more than that, it is visionary. Even I, that never worried about health issues, I'm starting to go to the doctor, take medicines, make analysis ... the whole world is getting more and more concerned about health issues.

Anyway, coming back to INSM, the company will deliver results tomorrow after the market close. Since this is a long term investment, I'm not thinking about selling before the earnings release.

It will be interesting to hear what the company has to say about future prospects.

I'll continue holding INSM for the long term.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: brandyjoco on March 02, 2006, 06:52:32 PM
I really feel that INSM will be another VPHM based upon the FDA approval and marketing of IPLEX this year. I would like to hold on to it for LONG TERM. Does anyone else feel INSM has the potention of a multi-bagger in 2006/2007? 

Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: la-onda on March 03, 2006, 03:00:20 AM
fyi:
AH price down a little bit

Insmed Incorporated Reports Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and Twelve-Months of 2005
Thursday , March 02, 2006 16:05 ET

RICHMOND, Va., Mar 02, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Insmed Incorporated (NASDAQ:INSM), a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of drugs for the treatment of metabolic and endocrine diseases in niche markets with unmet medical needs, today announced its financial results for the three- and twelve-month periods ended December 31, 2005.

Twelve-    Twelve-
                                                    Months     Months
                                                    Ended      Ended
                                                   Dec. 31,   Dec. 31,
$000's (except EPS)             Q4 2005  Q4 2004    2005       2004
                        ---------------------------------------------
Revenues                             24       23      131        137
Net loss                        (12,885)  (5,837) (40,929)   (27,203)
Net cash used in
operations                       6,209    6,452   27,765     24,901
Earnings per share                (0.27)   (0.14)   (0.84)     (0.69)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Discussion of Revenue and Expense Items

Revenues for the three months ended December 31, 2005 were $24,000 as compared to $23,000 for the same period in 2004, and $131,000 for the twelve months of 2005 as compared to $137,000 for the same period in 2004.

The net loss for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2005 was $12.9 million or $0.27 per share, as compared to a net loss of $5.8 million or $0.14 per share for the corresponding quarter of 2004. The net loss for the twelve months ended December 31, 2005 was $40.9 million or $0.84 per share as compared to $27.2 million or $0.69 per share for the full year of 2004.

The $7.0 million increase in the net loss for the fourth quarter of 2005, as compared to the same quarter of 2004, was due to the combination of a $6.0 million increase in interest expense, a $0.6 million rise in research and development expenses and a $0.6 million increase in general and administrative expenses, offset by a rise in investment income of $0.2 million,. The $6.0 million rise in interest expense resulted from the March 2005 convertible debt financing and consisted of two components: $5.8 million of non cash expense arising from the accounting treatment of the March 2005 convertible debt financing, which requires that the amortization of the debt discount and deferred offering costs of the financing be accelerated as investors convert the debt into shares, and $0.2 million arising from actual interest paid on the notes. The higher research and development expense was due to increased litigation costs in support of our patent position, while the $0.6 million rise in general and administrative expenses was due mainly to increased external service costs in support of our business. The increased investment income results from the Company having a higher cash balance than the corresponding period of 2004.

The net loss for the twelve months ended December 31, 2005 was $13.7 million higher than the corresponding period for 2004 due to increases of $14.2 million in interest expense and $1.5 million in general and administration expenses, which were partially offset by a reduction of $1.5 million in research and development expenses and a rise in investment income of $0.5 million. The increase in interest expense was due to the March 2005 financing and consisted of $13.1 million of non cash expense relating to the accelerated amortization of the deferred discount and offering costs, and $1.1 of actual interest paid on the notes. The reduction in research and development expenses was principally due to lower development and manufacturing costs for IPLEX(TM), which were partially offset by increased litigation costs in support of our patent position, while the higher general and administrative expenses were due to increased costs associated with financing activities and additional external service costs in support of our business. The rise in interest income was due to the higher cash balance on hand.

As of December 31, 2005, the Company had total cash and cash equivalents of $18.8 million which represents an increase of $9.6 million from December 31, 2004. This increase was mainly due to the generation of $37.4 million from financing activities, offset by the use of $27.8 million in support of our business operations. The $37.4 million of cash from financing activities was generated from a combination of $32.6 million in net proceeds from the March 2005 convertible debt offering, $4.6 million from the exercise of warrants and $0.2 million from a reduction in a restricted letter of credit.

Between January 1, 2006 and February 28, 2006, the Company received additional cash of $8.2 million from the exercise of warrants. As a result of these conversions in the first two months of 2006, the following shares, warrants and convertible debt were outstanding as of February 28, 2006:

-- 76.8 million total shares

-- $6.0 million in convertible debt from the March 2005 financing, convertible at $1.295

-- 6.2 million warrants from the March 2005 financing convertible at $1.36

-- 2.3 million warrants from the November 2004 financing convertible at $1.71, and

-- 1.5 million warrants from the July 2003 financing convertible at $4.10
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: shawFund on March 03, 2006, 11:14:05 AM
One question:

  How to valuate the bio stocks with no revenues (basically a pure R&D company)?

  I talked to a fund manager in UBS. He said that this type of company is not qualified to go public.

  The risk of failure is very high.

  May be we can get the company's worth based on the drug market size, and current status.

 
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: 422fwhp on March 06, 2006, 07:58:07 AM
 :(

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060306/20060306005590.html?.v=1

Insmed Incorporated Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock
Monday March 6, 7:21 am ET


RICHMOND, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 6, 2006--Insmed (NASDAQ: INSM - News) announced today that it has filed a preliminary prospectus supplement relating to an offering of 20,000,000 shares of its common stock pursuant to a Form S-3 shelf registration statement filed last month with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Insmed will also grant the underwriters in the offering an option to purchase up to 3,000,000 additional shares of common stock to cover over-allotments, if any. All of the shares are being sold by Insmed.
ADVERTISEMENT


Lazard Capital Markets LLC is acting as the sole book-running manager for the offering. C.E. Unterberg, Towbin, LLC is acting as co-manager. A preliminary prospectus supplement has been filed today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Any offer of shares of Insmed's common stock will be made only by means of a prospectus. Copies of the preliminary prospectus supplement relating to the offering may be obtained by contacting Lazard Capital Markets LLC at 30 Rockefeller Plaza New York, NY 10020 or (212) 632-6000. This communication shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.

-----------------

BAH!
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: David Randolph on March 06, 2006, 08:25:03 AM
QuoteInsmed Incorporated Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock ... BAH!

Don't be sad 422fwhp, this is old news:

«Insmed (NASDAQ: INSM - News) announced today that it has filed a preliminary prospectus supplement relating to an offering of 20,000,000 shares of its common stock pursuant to a Form S-3 shelf registration statement filed last month with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.»

The stock already went down because of this exactly 1 month ago.

I still need to listen that conference call, but I'll continue holding INSM for the long term.


Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: brandyjoco on March 06, 2006, 11:41:23 PM
Could someone PLEASE tell me what the projected sales of IPLEX and projected expenses for 2006 are supposed to be?  I tried reading the Financials but if I am reading correctly then they stated they will have a few more years of ADDITIONAL LOSSES and that it will take $270 million to bring IPLEX to market.

Any ideas?  Is this worth hanging on to?
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: yukii on March 07, 2006, 02:57:44 AM
.....MARCH 2, 2006 BUSINESS UPDATE.

- INSM is currently transitioning from a product development entity to a fully integrated pharmaceutical/biotec company now that it has its first FDA-approved drug under its belt and a huge pipeline of drugs ranging from diabetes, to Muscular Distrophy, to Cancer.


- The current company focus is in three major areas:

----- Comercialization

----- Manufacturing

-----Clinical Development


- COMERCIALIZATION:

1. iPlex will be comercially launched in June 2006.

2. INSM has hired top talent to assemble an impressive sales and marketing team featuring:

* An average of 17 years of selling experience in the area of pediatric endochrinology ranging from product mamagement, direct sales, clinical management, and business development.

* These new employees were involved in 29 new product launches

* 80% of te new sales force has direct experience with selling growth hormones and pediatric endochrinology.

The new sales force will concentrate their efforts to reach over 400 pediatric endochrinologists in the US. These endochrinologists take care of the majority of iPlex target patients.

The company will be active attending several pediatric endochrinology conferences and symposiums in the next three months.


- MANUFACTURING:

* INSM owns an FDA-approved large manufacturing plant capable of producing product that would generate several hundred million dollars per year.

* Having its own manufacturing plant, affords INSM complete control over quality control and operational flexibility and efficiency.

* INSM is currently working on an iPlex formulation that is stable at room temperature. This product will be launched in a few months. Currently iPlex (and competing prodcts) require that it be stored in a refrigerator prior to use. This will be a huge advantage over existing competitors.

* The Boulder, Colorado plant is fully staffed and oprating 24/7 to stockpile product and to supply quantities required for ongoing clinical trials for other indications like insuline resistance among diabetics, Myotonic Muscular Dysthrophy, and others.


- CLINICAL:

* INSM will be conducting clinical trials to extend its iPlex patient population from 6,000 to over 30,000 patients by addressing other conditions affecting children with IGF-1 defficiency.

* INSM will present results of Phase II clinical trials of iPlex as a medication for severe insulin resistance in diabetics in mid June 2006 at the International Endochrine Society conference. This is a potential multi-billion dollar market since the worldwide diabetic population continues to increase at an accelerated rate. Preliminary indications are very positive.

* INSM will continue clinical trials in all of its drug candidates in its rich iPlex endochrinology pipeline as well as other products in its oncology pipeline.

* INSM has several other drugs in the pipeline in Phases I, II, and III. These drugs range from cancer to diabetes and several illnesses with no known cure or adequate treatment.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: brandyjoco on March 07, 2006, 09:08:24 AM
Is this company going to be profitable or not?
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: john b mcginnis on March 07, 2006, 03:09:30 PM
Is insm making a triple bottom?? bullish?
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: usedcasting on March 07, 2006, 03:35:23 PM
Quote from: john b mcginnis on March 07, 2006, 03:09:30 PM
Is insm making a triple bottom?? bullish?

I saw that as well, if it breaks below, I will sell!
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: usedcasting on March 10, 2006, 09:13:10 AM
It appears as though INSM is selling 20m shares at $2.00. No confirmation yet. But alot of action.

uc.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: njshiva on March 10, 2006, 09:17:59 AM

I was expecting this one to be priced much higher than 2bucks ...crap >:(

"We have granted the underwriters the right to purchase up to 3,000,000 additional shares at the public offering price per share, less the underwriting discount, within 30 days of this prospectus supplement to cover over-allotments, if any.

The underwriters expect to deliver the shares against payment on or about March 15, 2006.
"
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104506/000119312506050360/d424b2.htm


Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: alien41 on March 11, 2006, 05:49:04 PM
Well, this has not worked out like I planned. :'( I guess I should have sold just before earnings but decided to hold.  Was wondering if anyone might share their thoughts on the possibility that it might bounce up a little or should I consider selling on Monday.  Still learning. ::)  Thanks in advance.

Alien
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: Michael on March 12, 2006, 06:06:31 AM
Hi Alien,

For what it is worth I bought INSM Friday so I would obviously not recommend selling

Even though I as usual mainly bought the stock for fundamental reasons I think this is a particular good entry point.

The public offering of 20 million shares is not only bad news. We will now have some serious investors that obviously have done a more thorough Due Diligence than we are able to. (not due to lack of skills but rather time and access to information). These investors believe that $2 is a great entry level and this should provide a solid floor under the stock. (even though it could spike down below in the very short term).

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17112;image)

As said I mainly bought INSM for fundamental reason. Insmed is going through the transformation from a Biotech research company to a pharmaceutical company and I believe they have an excellent pipeline to complete this transformation:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17111;image)

I will focus on IPLEX as it probably has most impact on the stock price short term.

Primary IGFD

FDA approved IPLEX for the treatment of growth failure in children with severe primary IGF-1 deficiency (Primary IGFD) in December last year as an orphan drug, IPLEX is entitled to seven years of marketing exclusivity for the treatment of Primary IGFD.

There are approximately 30,000 children in the US with short stature due to primary insulin-like growth factor-1 deficiency (IGFD). These children have normal or elevated levels of growth hormone but due to a deficiency in insulin-like growth factor, they are unable to utilize the growth hormone resulting in short stature. 6,000 of these children have growth failure due to severe primary IGF-1 deficiency. Children with untreated severe primary IGFD have extremely short stature and may have an increased risk of other metabolic disorders such as lipid abnormalities decreased bone density, insulin resistance, and obesity.

I would expect the total number of children severe primary IGF-1 deficiency in the developed world to be around 7000.

I expect the price for an IPLEX treatment to be similar to a Growth Hormon Therapy ($20,000 per year)

This means that the potential market is around $140 million. This excludes potential off label usage for non-severe cases.

IPLEX is however a very versatile drug. The compound behind it can be used for several serous diseases. The company's is also in Phase II clinical trails for the treatments of myotonic muscular dystrophy; HIV associated adipose redistribution syndrome; and extreme insulin resistance. Some of these indications are significantly more commercially interesting than IGFD.

Myotonic Muscular Dystrophy

INSM is conducting a Phase 2 clinical study together with University of Rochester investigating the use of iPlex, for the treatment of myotonic muscular dystrophy (MMD), the most common form of adult muscular dystrophy.

It has been known for decades that MMD patients do not respond normally to insulin. Recent research has identified an abnormality in an insulin receptor protein as the underlying cause and IGF-1 as a potential remedy.

Myotonic dystrophy affects an estimated 40,000 individuals in the United States and causes progressive muscle wasting and weakness in the hands, forearms, legs, neck and face. It often involves many other systemic effects, including endocrine abnormalities, especially with respect to insulin, a regulator of blood sugar (glucose); neurological changes, including excessive sleepiness and apathy; cataracts, usually requiring surgical excision; gastrointestinal problems; and cardiac rhythm abnormalities, often requiring pacemaker insertion.

The disease can lead to severe disability, and death can result from respiratory muscle weakness or fatal cardiac dysrhythmias.

At present, there is no treatment to reverse the muscle weakness or wasting or the defective insulin utilization in MMD.

The market potential in the developed world would probably be around $1.3 billion if we assume that the patience would have to take the drug everyday for the rest of their life and the pricing again would be around $20,000 per year. I am not sure that these assumptions are correct!

Severe Burn Injury

Severe burn injury is an additional treatment target. Annually, approximately 10,000 people in the United States (30,000 worldwide) suffer from traumatic burns over greater than 20% of their body surface. Major tissue damage along with, very low IGF-I levels, are associated with disruption of biological processes that are essential for efficient and successful healing and protection from burn complications. Furthermore, the length of time spent in a burn center and the time required to conduct the skin grafting required to cover the burn wound are directly related. Research has shown that IGF-I plays a significant role in tissue repair and that IGF-I supplementation can potentially promote the healing process and reduce hospital stay.
Additionally, data indicate that iPlexTM may have a positive effect on the immune system of severely burned patients. After severe burn, patients typically experience immune system deficiencies that impair their ability to resist infection as shown by an adverse shift in cytokine production by T lymphocytes. However, lymphocytes collected from six severely burned iPlexTM treated patients showed an approximately 280% increase in the production of interleukin-2, and a 25-90% increase in the production of interferon gamma, both vital immune system proteins. Thus, these changes may increase the ability of the burned patient to effectively be more resistant to infection.

If we assume that a treatment would cost $2,000 (5 weeks) the market would be around 60 million worldwide.


Osteoporotic Related Hip Fracture Surgery

There is approximately 350,000 hip fractures in US per year.

INSM has conducted a Phase II multi-center, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to evaluate safety and efficacy of iPlexTM in elderly female patients with recent hip fractures. As reported in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, iPlexTM was safe and well tolerated. iPlexTM has the ability to amplify bone metabolism and reverse the loss of bone mineral density that usually occurs following a hip fracture. These effects appear to be sustained for up to 4 months post-treatment. There also appears to be a positive trend in functional independence in patients treated with 1.0 mg/kg.

I don't want to speculate about the potential market for this indication.

Diabetes

INSM has conducted several trials showing that IPLEX improve the body's insulin sensitivity and glycemic control. Basically you can reduce the amount of insulin that the patience need to take. I am not sure how this can be commercialized. The Diabetes market is huge and growing so this could be a joker


The above is a layman's attempt to make some commercial sense of INSM's pipeline so there is most likely a number of mistakes in the above but I hope it give an illustration of the potential value of iPlex from an investment point of view.

Mike
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: alien41 on March 12, 2006, 10:28:37 AM
Michael,

Thanks so much for your take on INSM. :)  As always, you are well informed about the fundamentals of the companies in which you choose to invest.  I am happy to hold this as a long term investment.

I would like to say that I have learned so much from all the well-informed investors and traders here at 3 Stocks on Fire.  ;D 

Thanks again,

Alien 
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: 422fwhp on March 16, 2006, 08:07:49 AM
Should we be worried?   ???

Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: usedcasting on March 16, 2006, 09:10:24 AM
Quote from: 422fwhp on March 16, 2006, 08:07:49 AM
Should we be worried?   ???

I don't think we need to worry to much. There's a bit of positive activity pre-market, and closing the 20M shares @ $2.00 plus the extra 3M optional bodes well here.

JMHO

uc.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: usedcasting on March 22, 2006, 08:23:13 AM
This news will spook alot of timid investors. Down 5% pre-market.

uc.

Auditor Doubts Insmed Viability
Wednesday March 22, 8:16 am ET
Insmed Auditor Raises Question Over Company's Ability to Continue As Going Concern

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) -- Biopharmaceutical firm Insmed Inc. said Wednesday its independent accounting firm has raised doubts that the company will be able to continue as a going concern.

Insmed said the statement by Ernst & Young LLP is included in its annual report filed on March 6.

In the report, Insmed stated that the conditions leading to its auditor's uncertainty were the company's net loss position, its failure to become profitable and its dependence on financing.

On March 15, Insmed said it raised $42.8 million in net proceeds from a public offering of stock. Along with current cash on hand, the company said it will be able to cover its operational expenses through the second quarter of 2007.

On March 2, the company reported its fourth-quarter net loss more than doubled to $12.9 million from a year ago as interest and other expenses rose.

Insmed develops drugs to treat metabolic and endocrine diseases.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: alien41 on March 22, 2006, 09:00:22 AM
Was wondering what other's thought about this news.  Does seem to be a bit of a downer in the short term for sure.  :(

Alien
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: Michael on March 22, 2006, 10:49:10 AM
Hi Alien and UC,

Kind of interesting reaction to a non-event  ::)

Anybody who had just used 10 minutes to look at the P&L and balance sheet would have known that INSM needed additional capital to implement their business plan. It was also known that they have already raised that funding. So the only news is:

QuoteSubsequent to the filing of the 10K the Company was successful in completing a public offering on March 15, 2006 which, together with its current cash on hand, the Company believes is sufficient to cover the Company's operational needs at least through the second quarter of 2007. The Company raised net proceeds of approximately $42.8 million in the offering.

Now this is good news. They have resolved the issue with funding of the operation and INSM seems to have enough cash till at least Q2 2007 so we can assume that we will not have too much dilution in the meanwhile.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: jorgegr on March 22, 2006, 11:52:38 AM
Michael,
Can we have a stop loss on this one, just like all others?? At least did'nt see it
on the daily updates. My concern is that volumes are'nt picking up and slowly
the price going down as per the following detail during March:

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
21-Mar-06 2.12 2.12 2.06 2.07 1,234,000 2.07
20-Mar-06 2.13 2.14 2.06 2.12 1,890,900 2.12
17-Mar-06 2.09 2.12 2.04 2.10 2,062,700 2.10
16-Mar-06 2.05 2.12 2.01 2.03 3,108,000 2.03
15-Mar-06 2.08 2.09 1.96 1.96 3,575,300 1.96
14-Mar-06 2.08 2.11 2.04 2.06 1,470,900 2.06
13-Mar-06 2.08 2.18 2.05 2.06 2,354,100 2.06
10-Mar-06 2.04 2.14 2.01 2.06 8,774,300 2.06
9-Mar-06 2.25 2.26 2.16 2.19 1,137,600 2.19
8-Mar-06 2.18 2.23 2.12 2.18 1,050,200 2.18
7-Mar-06 2.14 2.23 2.12 2.18 1,063,700 2.18
6-Mar-06 2.17 2.31 2.12 2.19 2,868,700 2.19
3-Mar-06 2.42 2.44 2.27 2.37 3,227,400 2.37
2-Mar-06 2.73 2.79 2.52 2.56 3,183,500 2.56
1-Mar-06 2.52 2.66 2.48 2.65 2,372,400 2.65


Thx & Rgds

jorgegr
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: Michael on March 22, 2006, 01:02:37 PM
Hi Jorge,

It is funny you mentioned this. I had a discussion with eliteG a couple of days ago about the stop on INSM. I wanted to put a stop at 1.96 but he thought that was too tight (and I thought the TA guys were aggressive with stops  ???)

The reason for a tight stop was that the public offering at $2 should put a solid floor under the stock, which should only be breached if there were a significant change in the company's outlook.

We never finished the discussion and I postponed my update on INSM. I guess eliteG was right. The stop would have been triggered today and I think that would have been a mistake. From a fundamental point of view the news today was great but the headline AP's reporter choose did damage to the stock.

As part of the commercialization of iPlex INSM will incur significant costs, which will first be fully off-set by product revenue at a later stage. We now know that the expected negative cash flow from the start up of production, marketing and the cost of the further development of their Pipeline will not exceed $60 million in the next 5 quarters. I had personally expected this figure to be higher.

Technically we had actually started a small positive trend before today's news. I hope that this trend will resume when investors have had a chance to digest the AP story.

We do need a stop on INSM. Fundamentally that stop should be just below $2 but please allow me to talk to eliteG again and we will set a stop over the weekend. (this is the beauty of having a TA and FA team!)
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: jorgegr on March 22, 2006, 01:11:35 PM
Michael;

Thanks for the post. Your chart shows exactly what I was trying to bring to
discussion (the ascending TL was broken and headlines dont seem to help)

jorge gr
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: jlong on March 23, 2006, 04:35:14 AM
I would only be worried if it closed below 2.00, I think there is big money support at 2.00 and it will take some really bad news for it to do so. There was over 4 mil. traded today and only lost .07 cents. Big blocks were bought first hour, hopefully they got all they wanted. If so this should go up rather quickly. At least I'm hopeing because I bought a bunch at 2.05. I think 2.00 will be major support, like brvo at .50 (waiting for earning on brvo before re-buying).
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: la-onda on March 23, 2006, 04:44:37 AM
update from yahoo board:
NSM $2.0 SOLID AS A ROCK...A TRUE GEM
by: ivalexy
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy    03/23/06 03:20 am
Msg: 108793 of 108794

INSM has survived a rush of negative publicity lately just for being professional and for providing maximum transparency.

For instance, the announcement yesterday, that there was a "going concern" clause in the last 10-Q, and that it has been quickly addressed by obtaining $42.8M recently, is something that most biotecs don't do. Take GNBT, for instance, if you read their 10-Q, they have the "going concern" clause in every quarter. But they never release that information to the public. They never even release formal earnings PR's. Heck, most biotecs have similar clauses on their 10-Q/K's and never disclose that.

Now you know what happened yesterday, most of the over-reaction was caused by the criminal AP article that did not mentioned a word that INSM already addressed the issue. INSM has been penalized for being up and up with everything.... good or bad.

FYI, INSM has one of the highest Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ) in the industry. As of March 1, 2006 INSM's CGQ was better than 95.7% of CGQ Universe companies and 86.7% of Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology companies. As a comparison, GNBT's is the lowest (in the low teens).

I can sleep at night holding a bunch of INSM shares because management is doing the right things for the long-term appreciation of my investment in this company.

I am reposting this summary from Ivalexy because it highlights important highlights of INSM as an investment:
- INSM WILL LAUNCH IPLEX, ITS FIRST FDA-APPROVED DRUG, IN 2Q 2006.
- Also in June 2006, INSM will present results of Phase 2 using iPlex to treat Severe Insulin Resistance (of of many new applications of iPlex). This is a multi-billion dollar market
- INSM HAS a STRONG BALANCE SHEET....$61M IN CASH. No further dilution this year. Will start generating revenues in 2Q 2006.
- RICH DRUG PIPELINE ADDRESSING AILIMENTS FROM CANCER, TO INSULIN RESISTANCE, TO MUSCULAR DISTHROPHY, TO MUSCLE/BONE WEAKNESS, TO HIV......etc...etc....

++++++++++INSM will use its cash to:+++++++++

*** Accelerate the comercial launch and manufacturing of iPlex, its first drug approved by the FDA. The company plans to launch iPlex during 2Q 2006.
*** Continue pursuing the marketing authorization for IPLEX in Europe. The company will submit a formal application to the EMEA (the European equivalent of the FDA) any day now.
*** Continue clinical studies of the various drug candidates like iPlex for Severe Insulin Resistance, iPlex for Miotonic Muscular Dystrophy, small antibody molecule INSM-18 currently in Phases I/II to combat prostrate cancer, and several other drugs.

The following are a few highlights related to INSM's HUGE drug pipeline

** On March 7, the Business Intelligence firm La Merie S.L. reported that antibodies are at the forefront of novel cancer therapeutics targeting the insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor (IGF-1R).The report states that INSM along with giant Pfizer are among the leaders in this promising oncology research area. INSM-18 is a dual inhibitor of IGF-1R and Her2/neu and is the only clinical stage IGF-1R small molecule antagonist (phase I/II in prostate cancer).

http://www.pr.com/press-release/7579

** INSM recently initiated Phase 2 Clinical Trials of iPlex for the treatment of Myotonic Muscular Dystrophy (MMD), the most common form of adult muscular dystrophy:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060104/20060104005653.html?.v=1

......MARCH 2, 2006 BUSINESS UPDATE.

Immediate Company Focus: Three major areas:

iPlex Comercialization
iPLex Manufacturing
Pipeline Clinical Develoment

DETAILS BELOW:

http://insmtotewnty.blogspot.com/

update:
INSM: FY 2005 Results Include Going Concern
Wednesday, March 22, 2006 08:03 ET

Insmed Incorporated (INSM) announced that in its 10K filed for the year ended December 31, 2005, the Company's auditor had modified their audit opinion due to a going concern uncertainty. The Company has completed a $42.8 million public offering on March 15, 2006 which, together with its current cash on hand, the Company believes is sufficient to cover its operational needs at least through the second quarter of 2007.


TA Link:
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=INSM&num1=3&cobrand=windchart&mode=stock
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: alien41 on March 27, 2006, 04:25:18 PM
Michael,

Just wondering if you had any thoughts on the action with INSM.  Closed at 1.91 today.  I know that you had mentioned setting up a stop loss.  There is lots of talk in regards to the lawsuit with TRCA on the Yahoo msg. board(not always the best place to get your facts).  I expect things to turn around as we approach the June launch of Iplex.  I appreciate your feedback.

Alien   
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: Michael on March 27, 2006, 04:50:50 PM
Quote from: alien41 on March 27, 2006, 04:25:18 PM
Michael,

Just wondering if you had any thoughts on the action with INSM.  Closed at 1.91 today.  I know that you had mentioned setting up a stop loss.  There is lots of talk in regards to the lawsuit with TRCA on the Yahoo msg. board(not always the best place to get your facts).  I expect things to turn around as we approach the June launch of Iplex.  I appreciate your feedback.

Alien   

Hi Alien,

Technically today was very disappointing. The stock ended close to the low of the day and it seems like we have entered a downtrend. INSM need to show some strength fast.

Concerning the lawsuit this is old news. In the CC INSM made it clear that they believe that they have a very strong case and that they will launch iPlex despite TRCA's lawsuit. Any ruling from the court is first expected by the end of the year giving the stock ample time to recover. It is however clear that the market has a more negative view on this issue at present so we will put a stop on INSM at 1.85. This will give the stock room to recover from this speculation but also limit our loss if the stock capitulates.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: bocasva on March 28, 2006, 10:10:24 AM
Was INSM sold?  Etrade is showing the low today is 1.83
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: alien41 on March 28, 2006, 10:17:41 AM
Michael,

Thanks for the quick reply.  Sold today @ 1.87. On to the next trade.

Alien
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: jorgegr on March 28, 2006, 11:00:17 AM
Sorry I'm a contrarian this time.
I sold on friday at 2.04 and bought again today at 1.86

I believe shortly it may fill the gap at ~2,50 if we hear good news in the next few days

jorgegr
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: Michael on March 28, 2006, 12:01:50 PM
INSM sold at 1.85 in accordance with the trading plan

Quote from: jorgegr on March 28, 2006, 11:00:17 AM
Sorry I'm a contrarian this time.
I sold on friday at 2.04 and bought again today at 1.86

I believe shortly it may fill the gap at ~2,50 if we hear good news in the next few days

jorgegr

I hope you are right Jorge. I for sure think that INSM should trade above 2.50. Unfortunately it seems like the market disagree for now.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: brandyjoco on March 28, 2006, 04:20:38 PM
I found the following on the Yahoo INSM message board:  I ran across someone mentioning a court case TRCA vs INSM regarding the exclusive orphan rights that TRCA says INSM is violating. Someone mentioned an April courtdate - does anyone know about this here?  Is that why the price has dropped?

I sold at 2.05 but I want back in....

Thomas Keuer
Senior Vice President of Insmed Therapeutic Proteins, CC March 2, 2006
_____________________________________
Greetings to everyone from Boulder, Colorado. What I want to do is give a brief update and overview of our manufacturing program for iPlex. As I'm sure all of you know by now, Insmed acquired a bio-pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Bolder from Baxter Healthcare in the spring of 2004, which we now call Insmed Therapeutic Proteins or ITP. This strategic acquisition was made primarily to provide Insmed with direct control over the manufacturing of drug substance to ensure adequate supply for clinical trials and commercial launch. By the fourth quarter of 2004, we have staffed up, re-commissioned the facility and we're successfully manufacturing iPlex under GMC conditions in support of our clinical trial program.

Our ability to rapidly staff up and produce clinical and commercial product is a testimony to the quality of the employees we've been able to hire at ITP. In order to run at maximum capacity, we've instituted a 24/7 operation dedicated to the manufacture of iPlex. We currently have over 60 employees and that number will grow to nearly 100 by year-end. In order to make all this function smoothly, we've hired a very experienced management team that's proven itself over many years in specialty biopharmaceutical manufacturing. Currently the ITP management team has over 10 years of direct experience on average in our Boulder facility and over 15 years xperience on average in the biopharmaceutical industry.

In 2005 our team was able to continue enhancing the production capability from ITP. Also in the summer of 2005, we were inspected by the FDA as part of the NDA approval process and were subsequently approved as a commercial manufacturing site for iPlex drug substance. This was clearly a very significant milestone for Insmed and the Boulder site. Over the past few months we've been actively manufacturing iPlex drug substance to support our upcoming product launch in Q2 of this year.

Additionally we began work on the development of an approved shelf stable nonfrozen formulation, which we expect to have completed by the end of this year. In addition to supporting Launch, our other major objectives for 2006 and beyond will be to continue to enhance our manufacturing capacity to meet the anticipated annual increases in market demand. This will be achieved through the same type of success planning and execution that's allowed us to make such tremendous progress in a short period of time since we acquired the facility.

We believe that as a result of the successful implementation of these plans, the ITP facility will have adequate capacity to meet an annual market demand for its several hundred million dollars.In summary, we believe that the strategic acquisition of ITP has proven to be a very good decision and that now we've established Insmed as a fully integrated company with complete control over the manufacturing supply. I'm also very proud of the fact that the Insmed manufacturing team has exceeded our primary objectives to date and I look forward to the opportunities that lie ahead for us in the manufacturing program to support the growth of iPlex as a commercial franchise.
_____________________________________

Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: jlong on March 29, 2006, 03:31:39 AM
Quiet period will be over on the 31st according to edgar, gonna hold to see what happens after that. Hopefully they come out with some awesome news. If not--I hate it when that happens. I still think there is a lot of potential here, hopefully the market will too.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: la-onda on April 11, 2006, 09:34:46 AM
 INSM: CE Unterberg Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $3; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , April 11, 2006 09:08 ET

Issuer: Insmed Incorporated (NasdaqNM: INSM)
Analyst Firm:  C.E. Unterberg Towbin Co.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $3.00
Analyst Comments: The firm expects the IPLEX launch to begin in Q2 and they think sales could reach $200M in 2010.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: D&Data on April 11, 2006, 09:57:33 AM
pffff....
it's really time to go upstairs... :)

other indications:


CEUT note
by: rstor1 (46/M/NY)  04/11/06 10:03 am
Msg: 85522 of 85533

Insmed, Inc. (INSM5,6,7,8,9 $1.69) - Buy



Growing Potential – Initiating with Buy Rating



Initiating coverage of Insmed with a Buy rating.



Insmed's lead product, IPLEX, was approved in December 2005, for the treatment of severe primary IGF deficiency. Though it has not launched yet, we expect launch to begin in 2Q:06. We believe it will soon lead the IGF-1 market over its competitor Tercica's Increlex (which was launched in January 2006) given its favorable safety profile as well as added convenience. We believe the initial worldwide sales for IPLEX and Increlex growth hormone revenue may represent a combined opportunity of roughly $10-15MM in 2006 growing to $200MM in 2010.



We highlight Insmed's pursuit of an indication for HIV lipodystrophy. We estimate the number of patients with HIV lipodystrophy could be as high as 800,000. Insmed holds a key advantage over its competitors in that IPLEX can safely be used in the nearly 50% of HIV lipodystrophy patients who are insulin resistant. IPLEX would step easily into this role to fulfill the unmet need for these patients. Though this program is in the early stages and we would not expect to see an FDA filing until 2009, we would point to this as the key driver for the name as a long-term buy and hold story.



We believe INSM's shares are best suited for investors seeking private equity type returns with the stomach necessary to deal with nearer-term volatility as litigation matters are worked through. Furthermore, a longer-term time perspective permits investors to look past the somewhat limited initial market opportunity for IPLEX, and ahead to significantly larger potential market opportunities, including those beyond short stature.



We arrive at our 12-month price target for INSM of $3.00 by averaging valuation ranges arrived at both under a multiple of revenue and multiple of earnings perspective. Our target represents potential upside of more than 75% to INSM's current levels.



Upcoming events for INSM include an Unfair Business Practices Judgement Hearing on April 15 and a Markman hearing on May 19. Historically, Markman hearings have been used to assess a judge's bias in a particular patent case and to review procedural issues. In this case, the judge, Judge Claudia Wilkens, has not tried many patent cases. We note that this is more a formality for Insmed and would not assign it much weight as a catalyst.



The major risk for Insmed stems from the patient litigation with Tercica and Genentech. In December 2004, Tercica and Genentech began to file a series of complaints against Insmed. A negative decision could have a major impact on Insmed as it could potentially eliminate its only commercialized product. However, we add that the risk of this outcome is not as likely as a monetary settlement. Additional risks for Insmed include the successful launch of IPLEX as well as the company's inability to differentiate IPLEX from TRCA's Increlex. There is also risk in the inability to successfully develop and commercialize other pipeline products. For greater discussion of risks, see the body of our report as well as the company's reports filed with the SEC.

Andrew Fein
Equity Research -- Biotechnology


Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: Melf Elf on April 11, 2006, 12:07:22 PM
Mike (1Reilly),

Thanks for the heads up on INSM.

I'd say that the Unterberg analyst made a good call, technically.  After going well beyond the Ascending Triangle target, INSM has come back to the 1.63-1.64 breakout.  The April 7 low was 1.65.

"Former resistance provided support."

The low "should be" in now.  It could tag the 200DMA, currently at 1.573 and rising about one-third of a point per day, but I personally wouldn't want it if the stock went below that.

On the upside, 2.09-2.10 was support, and the 50DMA, which has rolled over to the downside, is at about 2.14, and falling.  I would expect some resistance there.



Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: 1reilly on April 11, 2006, 01:33:54 PM
Melf
Thanks for the TA. I picked at this at 1.76 and plan to add if I see more volume. I think the early volume might have been a blessing but want some volume now to confirm upside bias.
Mike
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: D&Data on April 13, 2006, 05:52:47 AM
Hi guys...
Great post for all indications...here it is :

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1433
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: Melf Elf on April 13, 2006, 11:20:35 AM
Some buying interest coming in at 11:00AM.  There were a couple of 30,000 share blocks at 1.87 and 1.88.  We need some more, but that's a start.

Applauds to jlong, Oliver, Doyle and Mike (1reilly) for you posts on INSM.  Thanks.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: 1reilly on April 13, 2006, 03:05:13 PM
Melf
With this action today I'll be very surprised if this doesn't test 2.10 - 2.12 level. Top of my Bollinger band around 2.20. Market and 3 day weekend may put a lid on this but I liked what I saw on the bid side today.
Mike
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: Melf Elf on April 13, 2006, 03:38:04 PM
Quote from: 1reilly on April 13, 2006, 03:05:13 PM
With this action today I'll be very surprised if this doesn't test 2.10 - 2.12 level.

Mike,

That sounds reasonable.  I like the fact that the stock has turned the corner, and made a bullish target.  The high of this Symmetrical Triangle was 1.83.  Low was 1.65.

1.83 - 1.65 = 0.18 added to the breakout above 1.80 = Target: 1.98 MADE this afternoon.

Have a good weekend, Mike, and thanks again for mentioning INSM.  Applause.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: D&Data on April 18, 2006, 06:57:17 AM
Hi guys....
another good sign 4 us   :

http://pharma.dow.com/pharma/biopharma/news/20060410d.htm

But INSM didn't release this as news? ...Why???
Any thoughts?

  ??? D.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: ScottishTrader on April 23, 2006, 12:54:04 PM
I will post this here as well - INSM is my pick for this months stock picking contest  ;)

My pick for this months contest is Insmed (INSM):

Insmed was really on fire in December and January as positive news came out about their key drug IPLEX, used to treat children with Growth Hormone Insensitivity, which I am sure most 3SOFers know all about.  Fulle coverage can be read here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4489.msg57706#msg57706

Since peaking at 3.35 in January, it has been falling back in a descending channel, recently reaching a low of 1.65, just over a 50% drop :P

HOWEVER, I think that things are about to change for INSM.  As was expressed in their last conference call, everything is in place for the commercialization of IPLEX, which is set to happen this quarter, and probably within the next month.  Several key conferences, including the PAS Annual meeting are coming up, at which Insmed will be presenting recent results on IPLEX, and may provide an opportunity to announce commercial production.  They have already recieved approval and orpan status, so are really on the verge of starting to make some money!!! IPLEX has huge long term potential, but I see then next few weeks as turnaround time.

Technically, we have the bearish channel, which the stock has been recently traversing, but it made a nice little rally off the low of 1.65, up to 2.00, before selling off again.  If INSM can break above 2.00, then I think the reversal will be in.  The 13ema has been providing a nice little guide rope for INSM in the last 6 months, for the most part finding support there on the ascention and resistance as it fell back (bar a couple of rallying spikes), so I would like to see the 1ema get taken out next week.  It currently stands at 1.83, which is where INSMs AH price is as well. 

Target-wise, the fibs for the last rally give us some nice targets, with the 61.8% retrace at 2.01, right where INSM needs to get over to put its reversal in, 50% at 2.26, which corresponds to the top of the bearish channel, and finally the 38.2% at 2.52, which is the top of the gap when INSM crashed after earnings.  A move from where it closed on Friday at 1.80 to the top of this gap would be a 40% move, and could happen quite quickly.  Beyond that, well, lets just see.

Anyway, in line with this, I will be buying INSM back on Monday to put my stock pick into practice ;D
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: ScottishTrader on April 26, 2006, 11:00:42 AM
Nice move up today for INSM so far after putting in what looks to be a solid hammer yesterday.  I got in yesterday at 1.75 (instead of Mon).  And things are starting to look good for this week and next.  A PR released this morning on their conference presentation at the PAS conference next week suggest positive results will be forthcoming shortly.  All we need to hear now are further details about commercialization.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060426/dcw009.html?.v=56
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: D&Data on April 28, 2006, 09:54:55 AM
Hi Jb....
'don't know what will be the news today or...monday...
hope that it will be hot 'n' good ...
'm a little confused ( to not say a lot )... :o

'havve waited for the good run...but, under 1.7 : I SELL

So.........the near future will show us what the 'disco' has in its bag !

now...put "White Rabbit" in your head-----J.Airplane----'n' wait on monday(or tuesday)....

See you later,

ps:

* 29 April PAS meeting - Expected IPLEX Launch
* 5 May, Briefing on patent claim construction
* 9 May, CC TRCA, Increlex sales results AH
* 10 May, AVA INSMED
* 15 May, Rodman & Renshaw conference - Expected Phase II results MD trial
* 19 May, Markman hearing, claim construction hearing!
* 22 May, Expected update on Phase II, results - HARS trial
* 23 May, Expected updat on Phase II, results - Severe Insulin Resistance.

D.

....?
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: jlong on May 01, 2006, 02:07:37 PM
Insm Taking of now Must be news
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: Kublakhan on May 01, 2006, 02:11:27 PM
INSM news out!   8)

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060501/dcm030.html?.v=50
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: jlong on May 01, 2006, 02:14:31 PM
Up 12% in 10 minutes.
News
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060501/dcm030.html?.v=50
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: D&Data on May 02, 2006, 06:19:28 AM
--------IPLEX sales in Q2!!
by: sipher_l (40/Manhattan Beach, CA)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy  05/02/06 04:05 am
Msg: 91169 of 91177 -------->

Yesterday's Podium Presentation at the PAS-conference http://tinyurl.com/hplwb was a confirmation to/for all the activities performed by the 30 ppl salesforce in the last couple of months, as Mr. Young said in January, selling IPLEX to 400 pediatrics!!

"Insmed is setting up a 20-to-30-person sales force in the United States that will target approximately 400 pediatric endocrinologists, says Phillips. "The marketing will be very analogous to the way growth hormone started," he says, with a lot of one-on-one sales.
When the drug hits the market in second quarter 2006, "there will be one specific distributor," says Phillips."
http://www.aishealth.com/SampleIssues/samplespn.pdf

For the pediatrics, the Launch of the site http://www.go-iplex.com/ and the launch of the telephone number 1-866-GO-IPLEX is to them THE confirmation that IPLEX is LAUNCHED!!

Yesterday's PODIUM PRESENTATION specifically focussed on IPLEX and the publication in EXPERT OPINION by independent researchers http://tinyurl.com/o7zwp also focussed on putting IPLEX as a SUPERIOR product in the mind of pediatrics!!

The fact that INSMED is releasing PR's with the statement that IPLEX also is researched as a treatement for:
* MMD - Myotonic Muscular Dystrophy
* HARS - HIV Associated Adipose Redistribution Syndrome, and
* Extreme Insulin Resistance
makes it conceivable that PHASE II Trial results will be released shortly & that these results will be significantly positive!

Most importantly is the fact that yesterday's PODIUM PRESENTATION and Luanch of Web site and IPLEX call in number is THE confirmation to pediatrics and to the salesforce (also a motivational boost) that IPLEX IS EXISTING, WORKING, PRESCRIBED & ON SALE!!

Think of all the attention booth 539 got and will get, after presentation which ended at 15:15 our time yesterday!!

Looking forward to Rodman & Renshaw Conference http://tinyurl.com/zm9ts on MAY 15th!!

Good luck to all sales people in the field!! Enjoy today's VICTORY!!

L.S.
(A lot of factual information can be found on http://tinyurl.com/c7xyf )

....more :

http://tinyurl.com/oj4p2

Please notice that INSMED wil get maximum exposure on Rodman & Renshaw conference on the 15th May, while INSMED will present directly after the opening remarks of JOHN J. BORER III, PRESIDENT of R&R!!
All important visitors will be there, fresh, open & eager to find that PEARL!



Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: JKN on May 25, 2006, 08:10:38 AM
Here we go...

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B87DD831C%2D75FC%2D47F3%2D8BD6%2DF96B29C28CBF%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=nbs&symb=

INSMED Announces IPLEX(TM) Availability Nationwide for Children with Severe Short Stature; IPLEX Launch Marked By The First Product Shipments To Patients in States Across the Country

RICHMOND, Va., May 25, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Insmed Incorporated (INSM : insmed inc com new
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 1.54+0.01+0.65%

7:41am 05/25/2006


INSM1.54, +0.01, +0.7%) announced today the nationwide availability of IPLEX(TM) (mecasermin rinfabate (rDNA origin). IPLEX was approved as an orphan drug by the Food and Drug Administration in December 2005 for the treatment of growth failure in children with severe primary IGF-I deficiency (Primary IGFD) or with growth hormone (GH) gene deletion who have developed neutralizing antibodies to GH. IPLEX is the only once-daily IGF-I replacement therapy available for the treatment of severe primary IGFD.
"Insmed is very pleased to provide this novel therapeutic protein complex for the treatment of children who suffer from severe primary IGFD," said Philip J. Young, CBO. "It has been a 20-year journey for the many researchers involved in the development of IPLEX, and we are very gratified to finally have the opportunity to provide the only once-daily IGF-I therapy to patients in the United States. It is with great pleasure that we announce that on May 24, 2006 the first US patients with Primary IGFD began receiving IPLEX."
Primary IGFD is a distinct diagnosis of short stature and is believed to affect as many as 30,000 children in the United States. A subset of these patients is classified as having Severe Primary IGFD, which is estimated to affect 6,000 children. Severe Primary IGFD is a genetic or acquired condition in which patients do not generate sufficient quantities of IGF-I due to defects in the GH receptor/IGF-I pathway. In addition to the growth failure, Severe Primary IGFD can be associated with psychosocial problems. The early recognition and proper treatment of Severe Primary IGFD is critical in helping patients normalize growth and metabolic function.
"Numerous areas of the growth process remained a mystery for many years," said Mary Andrews, Executive Director of the MAGIC Foundation. "Now, thanks to the hard work of the researchers at Insmed, growth is better understood. It is so exciting to know that a new and convenient therapy is available for the many children with adequate levels of growth hormone who are not growing normally."
"As long time advocates for the diagnosis and treatment of children with growth issues, we recognize the importance of new and innovative approaches. We are pleased to welcome Insmed's debut into the field of pediatric growth therapy," adds Patricia D. Costa, Executive Director of the Human Growth Foundation.
IPLEX became available starting May 24 through a nationwide distribution system called PlexPoint(TM). PlexPoint is a single point of contact system for patients, payers and healthcare providers. PlexPoint can be accessed by calling 866-GO-IPLEX (866-464-7539) or on the web at www.go-IPLEX.com. The PlexPoint system is designed to provide the highest level of customer service to all stakeholders in the therapeutic decision-making and treatment processes. This system has been designed to provide flexibility and support to the payers, physicians, distributors and patients by allowing them to customize the distribution process to meet their individual needs.
More About IPLEX
Much of the data to support the FDA's approval last December were recently presented at the Pediatric Academic Societies' (PAS) 2006 Annual Meeting in San Francisco, California. At 12 months the ongoing study demonstrated significant, dose-dependent increases in growth rate. The investigators reported that the mean height velocity for the dose group titrated with up to 2 mg/kg/day increased from 2.0 cm/year pre-treatment to 8.3 cm/year during treatment. Children with genetic and acquired forms of GH insensitivity or IGFD appeared to respond equally well to treatment.
The once-daily dosing regimen used in the study was associated with a high compliance rate of 95% of injections taken. The safety profile of IPLEX proved favorable as instances of low blood sugar (hypoglycemia) were mostly mild and asymptomatic. Patients with severe GH insensitivity have a predisposition to hypoglycemia without treatment. Of the subjects enrolled in the study, 28% reported a history of hypoglycemia prior to treatment. This was similar to the proportion of subjects (31%) who experienced at least one incidence of hypoglycemia during the first year of treatment with IPLEX.
In the study, no patients discontinued IPLEX due to a related adverse event. Two patients had papilledema (one with a blocked pre-existing ventriculo-peritoneal shunt and one asymptomatic). No instances of facial nerve paralysis were reported. As is common with protein therapeutics, antibodies to the protein complex were detected in most patients, but were not associated with growth attenuation or adverse effects.
IPLEX is also being investigated for various other indications with unmet medical needs, including extreme insulin resistance, myotonic muscular dystrophy and HIV Associated Adipose Redistribution Syndrome (HARS) and short stature in children with Primary IGFD associated with Noonan Syndrome.
About Insmed Incorporated
Insmed is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of drug candidates for the treatment of metabolic diseases and endocrine disorders with unmet medical needs. For more information, log onto www.insmed.com or call 866-GO-IPLEX (866-464-7539) toll free.
Statements included within this press release, which are not historical in nature, may constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provided by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements in this press release include, but are not limited to, statements regarding our regulatory and business strategies, plans and objectives of management and growth opportunities for IPLEX and other proposed products and our planned clinical trial design, . Such forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including risks that IPLEX may not be successfully marketed or manufactured, competing products for IPLEX and our other proposed products may be more successful, our other product candidates may fail in the clinic or, we may lack financial resources to complete development of product candidates, the FDA may interpret the results of our studies differently than we have, and the biopharmaceutical industry may experience negative market trends and other risks detailed from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As a result of these and other risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those described in this press release. For further information with respect to factors that could cause actual results to differ from expectations, reference is made to our reports filed by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The forward-looking statements made in this release are made only as of the date hereof and Insmed disclaims any intention or responsibility for updating predictions or financial guidance contained in this release.
SOURCE: Insmed Incorporated
Insmed Incorporated Natalie Wyeth, Media, 202-835-9473; [email protected] or Tim Ryan, Investors, 212-477-9007 ext. 24; [email protected] Copyright Business Wire 2006 ********************************************************************** As of Sunday, 05-21-2006 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated a DOWNTREND on 02-23-2006 for INSM @ $2.20. (C) 2006 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights reserved.
   
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: D&Data on June 12, 2006, 09:18:47 AM
Hello,

good to know :

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1294611.html

still an opportunity @ this price ! = It's given
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: D&Data on June 13, 2006, 07:01:44 AM
Look, TRCA continues to loose the case  ...


United States District Court No. C 05-5027 SBA

For the Northern District of California

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
NORTHERN DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA
TERCICA, INC.,
Plaintiff,
v.
INSMED INCORPORATED,
Defendant.
_________________________________
No. C 05-5027 SBA
ORDER
[Docket Nos. 17, 23, 26, 31]
This matter comes before the Court on Defendant Insmed Incorporated's ("Defendant") Motion
to Dismiss the First Amended Complaint Pursuant to Federal Rules of Civil Procedure 12(b)(2),
12(b)(3), and 12(b)(6) and to Strike Portions of the First Amended Complaint Pursuant to Federal Rule
of Civil Procedure 12(f); Plaintiff Tercica, Inc.'s ("Plaintiff") Request for Judicial Notice; Defendant's
Opposition and Objections to Plaintiff's Request for Judicial Notice and Evidentiary Objections; and
Defendant's Objections to Plaintiff's Two Supplemental Declarations. Having read and considered the
arguments presented by the parties in the papers submitted to the Court, the Court finds this matter
appropriate for resolution without a hearing. The Court hereby GRANTS Defendant's Motion to
Dismiss for lack of personal jurisdiction and DISMISSES the First Amended Complaint without leave
to amend. The Court also GRANTS IN PART AND DENIES IN PART Plaintiff's Request for Judicial
Notice, SUSTAINS IN PART AND OVERRULES IN PART Defendant's Opposition and Objections
to Plaintiff's Request for Judicial Notice and Evidentiary Objections, and SUSTAINS IN PART AND
OVERRULES IN PART Defendant's Objections to Plaintiff's Two Supplemental Declarations.
Case 4:05-cv-05027-SBA Document 43 Filed 06/09/2006

Take a look if you're interested in...

http://trimurl.com/68L

I don't understand the low price now...--> this baby will skyrocket soon (very soon)
end of month ..they'll give results about phase2 clinical...and they seem to be very positive...
Now, you've got a good opportunity to invest in !

Cheers,
D.
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: D&Data on June 13, 2006, 08:21:43 AM
Court Dismisses Baseless Unfair Business Practices Lawsuit That Was Brought Against Insmed
Business Wire (Tue 8:04am) 

Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: john b mcginnis on July 18, 2006, 12:59:12 PM
Could now be the time to re-enter INSM?
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: boatguy on January 10, 2007, 11:47:45 AM
News ;D

Italian Ministry of Health Requests IPLEX(TM) for Treatment of ALS (Lou Gehrig's Disease)
Wednesday January 10, 9:00 am ET
Insmed and Cephalon Sign License Agreement Allowing Insmed to Distribute under Cephalon Patent Rights

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070110/20070110005582.html?.v=1

Might get a chance for a decent entry if it tries to fill the gap!
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: njshiva on January 11, 2007, 10:08:00 AM
in @1.16  ;)
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: sctrben on August 13, 2007, 06:25:48 PM
Could not find where INSM dropped off the watchlist here but was interested to see if anyone is still following this stock.  Many of the items discussed in the previous posts have come a long way from where they were at the time.  Aside from sp, they don't appear as though they have ever been in a petter position than now for a positive move???

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=me&bn=9585&tid=244299&mid=244299&tof=1&frt=2#244299

Thanks, interested in opinions
Title: Re: INSM for the long term
Post by: stout7735 on August 15, 2007, 10:26:46 PM
I have been suffering from this stock ,more than following it...I can't recommend buying it at this time... :-[
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: setravis on August 18, 2007, 04:39:48 AM
The INSM Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.

I will leave you Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread....... 

Good trading to all !   

Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: sctrben on September 19, 2007, 06:19:26 PM
Hey Stout,

I have asked on David's request for analysis page for INSM to get a look. There's only one more symbol to be analyzed before getting to my request.

Yeah, I'm much deeper than just following it as well,  Holding just over 20k shares split between an IRA, and regular trading acct at an avg price of .82 now.   We'll see, I believe it will be worth the wait, just get a little anxious at times when I pay too much attention to it.
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: stout7735 on September 20, 2007, 12:46:20 AM
I originally bought with high hopes they had a salable product to provide some income while working on other drugs...They lost it in court...I have resisted the urge to average down (probably only to disguise my losses from myself)...I am unable to estimate their long term prospects...I have another biotech in much the same situation-IDIX,but that one at least has a helpful big brother...My experience with speculative biotechs is to hold on to the losers,because they frequently give nice surprises,which CBMC recently did for me...Maybe one in ten small biotechs produce ten bagger to make up for the losers... :)
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: sctrben on September 20, 2007, 01:49:00 PM
Agreed on the surprise pops...  I believe INSM has a great layout ahead of it, (should) we get any positive news to bring attention, I see the stock running once it's disclosed. I'm looking for the positive domino affect on this one.

Same idea on PFSW, I've been heavy on that one for the last 8 months and was excited when David brought it into the lime light. That one has an escalator up currently with it's position and Christmas on the way.

Other bio bets, I have AMRN and HNAB, same story as yours, beaten up, have a pipeline, just a matter of time before something takes hold.

Best of luck, will stay in touch...
Title: Re: INSM is on fire and I like it
Post by: setravis on October 20, 2007, 10:05:36 AM
Updated look.......
New Uptrend? Attempting to Break above the $1.00 resistance.

52wk Range: 0.56 - 1.98
Volume: 813,349
Avg Vol (3m): 852,885

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
5.16%above 13-day MA
21.40%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $114.41 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 11/09/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Hold