Boston Communications Group, Inc. (BCGI). The Group's principal activity is to provide real-time subscriber management services to the wireless industry.
The long term chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=605;image)
And the short term:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=606;image)
The stock had that enormous gap down because of a trial decision. To me that decision was already being discounted for some time so I believe the stock overreacted to the news with a 64% drop in one day.
Insiders agree with me and started buying on Friday's session like there's no tomorrow:
http://www.insidercow.com/index.html (http://www.insidercow.com/index.html) (this site is great for tracking insiders moves)
I don't want to dig too much into the news because that can be prejudicial. I just grasp the essential of the story, buy some stock and sell when they lose momentum. I absolutely don't fall in love for one stock or another, I actually believe there are 11000 stocks competing for my attention and money.
BCGI has short term upside potential. The court case will have many appeals and the final verdict is still unknown, altough the price is almost at bankruptcy levels. There has to be a rise to a level of more equilibrium, to say the least ...
Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 100% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php). If you want to join our community and receive our free newsletter, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
No one knows better what is going on 'behind the news' than an insider, if insiders are buying then it is a waving flag we outsiders should look at. Thanks for the insider website David, added that to my favs.
BCGI is NOT a $1 stock IMHO, an entry here is a great risk / reward opportunity.
Mike
Off all three, I liked this one the best. had to sell one to get it, but right now I am satisfied. +14%, COWBOY UP !!!
The days volume up almost 100% in the morning.
BCGI Chairman bought 137,00 additional shares this AM. As Mike ( AUSSIETRADER) said, just follow the money.
Thanks for heads up on this issue. added a position at $1.86 hoping for the best.
HI DAVID,
may I ask your short term goal for BCGI?
Regards
Oliver
Quote from: David Randolph on June 05, 2005, 05:38:40 PM
Boston Communications Group, Inc. (BCGI). The Group's principal activity is to provide real-time subscriber management services to the wireless industry.
The long term chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=605;image)
And the short term:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=606;image)
The stock had that enormous gap down because of a trial decision. To me that decision was already being discounted for some time so I believe the stock overreacted to the news with a 64% drop in one day.
Insiders agree with me and started buying on Friday's session like there's no tomorrow:
http://www.insidercow.com/index.html (this site is great for tracking insiders moves)
I don't want to dig too much into the news because that can be prejudicial. I just grasp the essential of the story, buy some stock and sell when they lose momentum. I absolutely don't fall in love for one stock or another, I actually believe there are 11000 stocks competing for my attention and money.
BCGI has short term upside potential. The court case will have many appeals and the final verdict is still unknown, altough the price is almost at bankruptcy levels. There has to be a rise to a level of more equilibrium, to say the least ...
Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 100% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php). If you want to join our community and receive our free newsletter, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
I don't have a target on this one - if the stock enters the gap zone ($2.08-$4.76) it can rise a lot further but the jury is still out on that (in this case this sentence applies perfectly).
I don't know why you guys just bought the stock now, the recommendation text was posted last night (I personally bought at the open @ $1.66). I'm not saying for you to follow my recos (good Lord) but I'm curious why not at the open but just now that the stock is up 15% from that level.
Perhaps you've waited for some kind of confirmation ...
This is a speculative venture, from my analysis I thought the stock overreacted to the news, but the equilibrium point will always be below $4.76 unless the fundamental picture changes.
your alert was send out perfectly, I was just checking if I should increased my IIJI position or start a new one in BCGI.
keep the finger crossed for both now
Quote from: David Randolph on June 06, 2005, 03:31:16 PM
I don't have a target on this one - if the stock enters the gap zone ($2.08-$4.76) it can rise a lot further but the jury is still out on that (in this case this sentence applies perfectly).
I don't know why you guys just bought the stock now, the recommendation text was posted last night (I personally bought at the open @ $1.66). I'm not saying for you to follow my recos (good Lord) but I'm curious why not at the open but just now that the stock is up 15% from that level.
Perhaps you've waited for some kind of confirmation ...
This is a speculative venture, from my analysis I thought the stock overreacted to the news, but the equilibrium point will always be below $4.76 unless the fundamental picture changes.
IIJI is a more secure play, there's a genuine fundamental back up to it until June the 16 th. BCGI is a more speculative play. Good luck on both, we deserve it :D
David,
I am so new to this but I bought later in the day "thinking" of all of the people who might just jump at the open and drive the price up on euphoria. Unfortunately, that was not the case. I bought later in the day at 1.95, much farther in the rise than I wanted to but also while the volume appeared to be bulding further. Rightr? Wrong? I think tomorrow will tell us something. I would also like to thank you for this site. You have a very simple approach to this madness and I am looking forward to learning much from you. Thank you 8)il
As said with the current fundamental picture the equilibrium point for BCGI will probably be below $4.76. I guess something in the range of $2.5 - $3 should be appropriate.
Now we have two scenarios:
1) The stock enters the gap zone (above $2.08) and then I believe it will shoot up in short covering to the $2.5 - $3 range.
2) The stock fails to enter the gap zone and starts crumbling down
My attitude toward these two scenarios:
1) Sell @ $2.5 locking in a 50% profit.
2) Sell @ $1.83 protecting a 10% profit.
Hoping for the best but prepared for the worst.
BCGI lost momentum today. Lower volume and a doji candle revealing indecision from traders. I think I'll sell tomorrow, protecting my 18% profit or at least part of it ... the stock couldn't really enter the gap zone, it tried to, but it couldn't. So me too, I can't hold BCGI.
BCGI
I bought this at 1.80. and didnt pull the trigger fast enuf to let it go today. then this news came out after market closed
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050608/prepaid_wireless_verdict.html?.v=2
it dropped further in after hours to 1.76. should i sell it at open taking the loss , or should i hang on to it? what do u think the verdict will be? ???
What should i do? i am a newbie, any help is much appreciated! please help.
Thanks for the advice!
That news isn't new, everybody in the stock already knows that. That's the reason why BCGI came down from $5 to $1.5. You can't let a profit turn into a loss. My advice is for you to sell BCGI at the open and forget about it. Soon you'll replace BCGI with a stock on fire and make a lot more than you've lost on BCGI. Sell the losers so you can buy winners. Fear your losses grow more, not hope they will disappear. Only you can stop you from losing more.
bcgi is up right now, trading at 1.90 in early morning action. only up 1 cent, but on the news things look better for the open. i bought yesterday at 1.80 but i must hold until Monday, i bought with unsettled funds. hope it stays up. good luck today all
bcgi is back on the move. climbing nicely
bcgi is up about 30% since Thursday. should i sell or hold. i see it is not on your list anymore. i got in at 1.82
I would try to sell around $2.50. That was my initial price target but I was shacked out of the stock.
Good trade, let me congratulate you :)
Thank you for the pick, you have a great system. I am doing better with your info than anything I have ever paid for. I was almost done with the market. I have had huge gains with your info. You are doing a great job.
Thank You
Thanks puerz, but it's not me, it's you. You're thinking right now, letting your profits run and cutting losses short.
update on the trial
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050620/nym243.html?.v=7
any comments?
thanks!
Seems like it would be a positive b/c we all know a settlement will cause a huge jump in bcgi stock price, and now they have another 3 weeks to reach a settlement before the judge decides. Should be interesting tomorrow.
thought it might be interesting to bring this back up as the settlement deadline is Jul 14.
news from yesterday says BCGI stages European and Asian expansiton
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/050711/1131772.html?.v=1
it looks like a hint that there will be a settlement. but is it too big a hint? what do u think?
it has been on slow climbup since last friday, but no explosive volume. guess the market is still not sure where its going.
i got stopped out at 2.05 when it went below 2 last week.
within 2 days it will be a big mover, who knows up or down ,lol.
any speculation anyone?
good luck to you
Hi Eagerlearner,
There might be a settlement. My problem is however that BCGI seems to head for bankruptcy with or without a settlement. All their big clients are in the process of moving to in house solutions (operators don't want like uncertainty and to be charge for violating patents!!!). BCGI will have to expand outside US but what are the odds? They will be stripped of money and all foreign operators already have in house solutions (outsourcing of prepaid billing is a US idea)
So if there is a settlement you will have a nice spike in the share price and.....
I would use that spike to sell if I had any shares....
totally agree with Michael... I think this one needs to be observed, there are many plays out there. ;)
wish i held on to my shares a little bit longer. :-\
company potential went down, but looks like the market is giving positive reaction from any news from the courtroom.
BCGI is much lower now than when I've traded it the last time. I see a technical bullish signal on the chart, looking like a double bottom in the making.
We must remember insiders were heavy buyers in June, about 100% higher than where the stock is trading now. And they persist on buying, not just 1 or 2, but I get a list of more than 20 different insider buying stocks at a price which is higher than the current market price. They bought just before these news hit the wires:
«Boston Communications' shares plunge on judge's ruling (BCGI) By Michael Baron
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Boston Communications (BCGI) plummeted 45% to 94 cents on Friday after a federal judge upheld a $128 million judgment against the Bedford, Mass., provider of wireless communications-related products and services in a patent infringement lawsuit with Freedom Wireless. The company said it plans to appeal the judge's ruling.»
It seems all the bad news is out. We also have this info from the company:
«Today's judgment by U.S. District Court Judge Edward Harrington leaves standing a $128 million verdict against bcgi and a number of its current or former carrier customers (Cingular Wireless LLC, AT&T Wireless Services, CMT Partners and Western Wireless Corp.) rendered by a jury on May 20, 2005. Today's rulings also included the Court's denial of the Company's motion urging the Court to reduce the amount of damages the jury awarded, or to grant a new trial on damages based on newly discovered evidence. The size of the judgment is more than bcgi's total current assets, and more than all of the revenue bcgi has ever received from providing the alleged infringing services to the defendant carriers in the case.
"We are disappointed by the judge's decisions to allow the verdict to stand and not to reduce the damages," said E.Y. Snowden, President and CEO of bcgi. "Our fight is far from over, and we look forward to bringing our appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which has nationwide jurisdiction over patent issues and is especially skilled at reviewing complex patent cases. We do not believe that we infringed Freedom Wireless' patents or that $128 million bears any relationship to a reasonable royalty that bcgi would have paid for a license to the patent rights. We hope the decision on appeal will be favorable, and we will continue to vigorously defend our technology."
While the appeal is pending, bcgi will be required to provide adequate security, via an appeal bond or otherwise. Cingular, bcgi's customer and largest co-defendant, has contractually agreed to provide security toward the amount of any appeal bond that is in excess of $41 million and for which bcgi and Cingular are jointly liable. Under that agreement, announced on July 27, 2005, bcgi has placed $41 million in escrow to be used for security, and in exchange, Cingular has agreed to provide sufficient additional funds to stay the execution of the judgment. This agreement is expected to allow bcgi to proceed with an appeal without forcing the Company to seek protection in bankruptcy while the appeal is pending but does not alter bcgi's obligation to indemnify Cingular. The agreement specifies that Cingular is required to post a bond only for the portion of the judgment exceeding $41 million that is for joint infringement. If the Court enhances the damages against bcgi for willfulness, Cingular would not be liable for such enhanced damages and therefore that amount would not be secured by Cingular.»
Also this: bcgi Introduces Comprehensive Suite of Services for MVNOs; Offers Complementary Suite of Products, Consulting and Alliances in a Single Package Optimized for Emerging Mobile Virtual Network Operators (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BE6E8FBF9%2D9DA8%2D4DE5%2D9463%2D734EAC459E06%7D)
The company is fighting with all it can to prevent bankruptcy and the market cap is just $19.58M. Who am I to judge, but $128M seems to be very exaggerated considering what this company has sold of its products.
Well, I don't know much about the court outcome or if the company will survive this, what I know is this:
1) Insiders have been buying, they bought shares much higher than the current price and they continue to buy.
2) I see a bullish technical signal on the chart.
That's enough for a speculative buy for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Here are the charts:
I'm backing off, it's too risky. I will look for some other opportunities the following trading days, I don't need to be active everyday and bottom fishing isn't my style.
But I'm finding it harder to get nice technical setups, stocks are generally turning bearish.
Press Release Source: Boston Communications Group, Inc.
Boston Communications Group, Inc. Signs Definitive Settlement Agreement to End Freedom Wireless Litigation
Friday July 21, 3:32 pm ET
Company is Reviewing its Historical Option Grants Practice in Response to Informal SEC Inquiry
BEDFORD, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 21, 2006--Boston Communications Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: BCGI - News), a leading provider of products and solutions that enable mobile operators and MVNOs worldwide to differentiate their offerings and increase market penetration while reducing costs, and Freedom Wireless, Inc. today announced that they have signed a definitive settlement and license agreement settling and dismissing, with prejudice, Freedom Wireless' patent litigation against bcgi and its carrier customers, including its co-defendants.
"We are thankful to be able to end this chapter in bcgi's history, and we believe that the decision we've made to enter into a settlement with Freedom Wireless is the most prudent path forward to preserve and enhance the value of our business by alleviating the risk our customers and other stakeholders might have borne in the course of our continuing legal battle," said E.Y. Snowden, bcgi president and CEO. "With this agreement, and our ability to offer the wireless industry bcgi's best in class, 3GPP-compliant, Intelligent Network-based Real-Time Billing platform together with the protection of a license for the Freedom Wireless patents, we believe bcgi 's competitive position is dramatically enhanced, as evidenced by today's 8-K filing disclosing a long-term contract renewal."
The terms of the settlement and license agreements have been finalized, and the settlement is conditioned upon the entry of orders vacating certain orders and judgments in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts. The license agreement allows bcgi to continue business, including the sale of its real-time prepaid billing product, without the burden of any infringement claim by Freedom Wireless. The license agreement protects bcgi's mobile operator customers, channel partners and suppliers in connection with bcgi products, services and technologies. However, it does not resolve or settle any claims, disputes or liabilities relating to the use or infringement of the Freedom patents by mobile operators in connection with any prepaid wireless system or service other than services provided by bcgi.
Pursuant to the settlement agreement, bcgi will pay to Freedom Wireless $55.3 million in full and final settlement of all claims against bcgi through June 30, 2006, including $12.6 million that will be a prepayment of royalties under the license agreement. The prepayment is anticipated to cover bcgi's royalty obligations to Freedom Wireless for the period from July 1, 2006, through approximately Feb. 28, 2007. The total settlement to be paid collectively by all of the defendants to Freedom Wireless is $87 million. As part of the settlement, bcgi's co-defendants have agreed to release bcgi from its indemnification obligations to such parties.
The license agreement enables bcgi to provide mobile operators real-time prepaid wireless services that are fully licensed under the Freedom patents. Pursuant to the license agreement, bcgi will be required to pay ongoing future royalties for prepaid subscribers beginning on or about March 1, 2007, in accordance with the terms in the license agreement. The license agreement also provides for a contingent payment equal to 5 percent of any increase in bcgi's average market capitalization for the six months ending June 30, 2007, compared to the six months ended June 30, 2006, payable in four quarterly installments beginning September 30, 2007.
"In terms of prepaid subscribers served, this license agreement makes bcgi the largest Freedom Wireless licensee," Snowden said. "We believe that the protection this license affords our customers will allow future pricing to accommodate the cost of the royalties. With our license of these patents, and our industry leading Real-Time Billing features, performance and flexibility, we look forward to reinforcing our prepaid wireless leadership as the segment continues to grow."
bcgi, its codefendants and Freedom have filed a Joint Motion for Relief from Orders and Judgment in the District Court, requesting the court to vacate certain orders, including vacating the finding of willful infringement against bcgi. If the District Court denies the joint motion, the settlement will not be consummated; the parties have asked the District Court to rule on this joint motion expeditiously.
bcgi Accounting Treatment
With respect to the accounting treatment of bcgi's $55.3 million cash payment, bcgi had previously accrued a $64.3 million estimated loss related to the Freedom litigation. While the Company is still evaluating the accounting treatment relating to the payments and obligations of the Settlement and License Agreements, for the quarter ended June 30, 2006, bcgi expects to reverse a portion of the previously recorded loss, resulting in a net gain to operating income to reflect the amount of settlement related to past damages. The royalty prepayment of $12.6 million is expected to be recorded as an asset as of June 30, 2006, and amortized to expense over the period from July 2006 through February 2007. bcgi expects to finalize and report the accounting details of the settlement and license agreement in its second quarter earnings release, which is expected to be on July 28, 2006. Absent the impact of the settlement and license agreement on the Company's financial statements as of June 30, 2006, the Company reiterates its previous guidance of lower sequential revenues and a net loss for the second quarter.
bcgi's cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled $70.3 million as of March 31, 2006. Under the terms of the Appeal Agreement with Cingular Wireless, the $41.9 million restricted cash amount in escrow as of March 31, 2006, will be applied toward bcgi's settlement payment to Freedom.
Option Grants
bcgi also announced today that Staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission had contacted it by telephone regarding an informal inquiry relating to certain option grants made between 1998 and 2002. The Board of Directors has retained outside counsel which, along with bcgi, has begun to review bcgi's historical option grants practices. The results of that review will be reported by outside counsel to a Special Committee of the Board. The review is still ongoing and the Special Committee is continuing to review these matters. Based on the investigation conducted to date, the actual measurement dates for accounting purposes for certain stock option grants during prior periods may differ from the recorded grant dates for such awards. As a result, the Company may need to record additional non-cash charges for stock-based compensation expense related to those prior periods, however, the impact of any such compensation charges, if any, for any relevant fiscal period has not been determined.
Conference
bcgi will hold a conference call and Web cast at 8 a.m. Monday, July 24, 2006, to discuss the settlement. bcgi President and CEO E.Y. Snowden and Chief Financial Officer Karen A. Walker will host the call. Parties interested in listening to the call should dial 1-800-423-5972 at least 10 minutes prior to the scheduled start of the call. For those unable to participate at the designated time, a replay will be available for seven days following the call via telephone at 1-800-642-1687 (Conference ID: 3457474) and will be available for 90 days on the Web at www.bcgi.net.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This press release contains, in addition to historical information, forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, including statements regarding the timing and terms of the settlement with Freedom Wireless, bcgi's competitive position, the time period covered by the royalty prepayment to Freedom Wireless, future pricing including the cost of the royalties, the impact on previously issued financial statements as a result of the stock option review, and revenue and earnings guidance. Such statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to a number of uncertainties and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. Among the important factors that would cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward looking statements are: the entry of orders vacating certain orders and judgments in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts and the Courts ruling on those orders, bcgi's ability to sell its Real-Time Billing product to new customers, the growth of bcgi's carrier customers during the prepayment period, the results of the review of bcgi's historical option grants practices and additional information that may cause the current quarter results to differ from bcgi's guidance as well as the other factors that may affect future operating results detailed in bcgi's form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2006 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
About bcgi
bcgi delivers innovative products and services that enable mobile operators and MVNOs worldwide to differentiate their offerings and increase market penetration while reducing costs. Founded in 1988, bcgi is a leader in identifying and addressing new market needs with proven solutions, including prepaid and postpaid billing, payments and access management. For more information, visit www.bcgi.net.
Contact:
bcgi Media Inquiries
Stephanie Pachucki, 1-781-904-5026
[email protected]or
bcgi Investor Inquiries
Joe Calabrese, 1-212-827-3772
[email protected]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Boston Communications Group, Inc.
The Chart.
Technicals
13-day EMA Cross Above 50-day EMA
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
159.82%above 13-day EMA
166.05%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 98
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Jul 26
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $24.17
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 07/26/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Sell
Boston Comm to pay $55.3 mln to settle Freedom litigation
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Boston Communications Group Inc. (BCGI : Boston Communications Group
Last: 4.01+2.09+108.85%
4:28pm 07/21/2006
4.01, +2.09, +108.9%) said Friday it will pay $55.3 million to Freedom Wireless to definitively settle the outstanding patent litigation against Boston Communications and its carrier customers. The total settlement to be paid by all of the defendants to Freedom Wireless is $87 million. The settlement includes a license agreement that allows Boston Communications to provide services that are fully licensed under the Freedom patents. Boston Communications will also be required to pay ongoing future royalties. Boston Communications had previously accrued a $64.3 million estimated loss related to the Freedom litigation, and the company expects to reverse a portion of the loss, resulting in a net gain to operating income. The company also reaffirmed its previous guidance of lower sequential revenues and a net loss for the second quarter, excluding the impact of the settlement and license agreement.