ABLE has just a $29M market cap and the chart turned bullish yesterday, with a long white marubozu. The company is engaged in oil and alternative energy and that sector is in play right at this moment.
I don't know about the future, and didn't go deep into the fundamentals of ABLE, but right now traders are pushing it up. I'll jump on the bandwagon around today's open with 10% of the Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
I want to get back to the old days of totally respect for the market and more activity on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio. The Long Term Portfolio will be for long term and fundamental plays.
Wish me luck :)
Quote from: David Randolph on February 22, 2006, 07:06:41 AM
I want to get back to the old days of totally respect for the market and more activity on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio. The Long Term Portfolio will be for long term and fundamental plays.
Wish me luck :)
HES BACK! Glad to hear you say those words Dave, Good luck and applauds :)
Going with the formula that worked. I think you are doing the right thing with the "Stocks on Fire" Portfolio and I'm grateful for you maintaining the Long Portfolio.
Todays a Good Day!
Congrat's Dave
uc.
ABLE: Signs Agreement With TransMontaigne for Renewable Fuel Products
Tuesday , February 21, 2006 12:49 ET
Able Energy, Inc. (ABLE) announced that it has agreed to sign an agreement with TransMontaigne Inc., (TMG) a leading supply chain management and fuel logistics company. The agreement allows Able Energy to optimize its fuel supply chain, accelerating distribution of biodiesel, a clean-burning, soy-based alternative fuel product.
As a result of the alliance with TransMontaigne, Inc., Able Energy, Inc. is taking a giant step forward in advancing the company's commitment to conservation, energy efficiency, and environmental health. With access to the TransMontaigne fuel supply chain platform, Able Energy Inc. will be able to provide its customers with fast, efficient and reliable access to biodiesel fuel.
&
Able Energy, Inc. Optimizes Its Supply Chain for Renewable Fuel Products
Tuesday , February 21, 2006 12:12 ET
ROCKAWAY, N.J., Feb 21, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Able Energy, Inc. ("Able") announced today that it has agreed to sign an agreement with TransMontaigne Inc., a leading supply chain management and fuel logistics company. The agreement allows Able Energy to optimize its fuel supply chain, accelerating distribution of biodiesel, a clean-burning, soy-based alternative fuel product.
As a result of the alliance with TransMontaigne, Inc., Able Energy, Inc. is taking a giant step forward in advancing the company's commitment to conservation, energy efficiency, and environmental health. With access to the TransMontaigne fuel supply chain platform, Able Energy Inc. will be able to provide its customers with fast, efficient and reliable access to biodiesel fuel.
Biodiesel is a clean-burning, environmentally friendly fuel alternative produced from domestic renewable resources. Biodiesel can be used efficiently in diesel engines and in home heating oil applications. Derived from natural oils like soybean oil, biodiesel meets the rigid specifications set forth by ASTM (American Society of Testing Materials). While biodiesel contains no petroleum, it can be used in its pure form or blended at any level with petroleum diesel to create a cleaner burning biodiesel blend. Studies show that the use of biodiesel in conventional diesel engines and home heating applications can substantially benefit the environment and human health. Biodiesel has been shown to emit lower levels of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons, and particulate matter compared to conventional diesel fuel. In addition, exhaust emissions such as sulfur oxides, sulfates (major components of acid rain), and aromatics are essentially eliminated in biodiesel.
Able Energy will offer a biodiesel blend for use in home heating applications supplied by TransMontaigne Inc. In addition, Able Energy's acquisition candidate, All American Plazas, Inc. has commenced use of a new biodiesel fuel blend also supplied by TransMontaigne Inc. at its All American Plaza truck stops in Doswell, Virginia, along with Bethel and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
"Biodiesel represents an exciting opportunity environmentally and economically for the region," states Able Energy CEO, Gregory Frost, "and it can be used in existing engines without compromising performance." Frost adds, "We're using a similar blend for our home heating oil business through Able Oil and PriceEnergy.com. We're partnering with TransMontaigne because its Navitus(TM) Supply Chain Platform is a valuable tool and because TransMontaigne is a leading supplier of BQ9000, the gold standard of biodiesel fuel quality."
Executive Vice President of TransMontaigne, Rick Eaton, states, "Able Energy is to be commended for leading the way in bringing clean-burning, environmentally friendly fuel alternatives into the retail market. We applaud Able Energy for demonstrating industry-leading vision and innovation in creating a cleaner environment, both at home and on the road."
&
Able Energy Reports Its Three Months Results for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2005
Thursday , February 16, 2006 18:18 ET
ROCKAWAY, N.J., Feb 16, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Able Energy, Inc. ("Able") today announced financial results for the second quarter ended December 31, 2005. Net sales for the six months were $35,471,589 compared to $27,209,943 a year ago. Net loss for the six months was $(3,242,539) or $(1.25) per share compared to $(819,018) or $(0.41) per share in the year earlier. Net sales for the three months were $22,340,176 compared to $18,988,098 a year ago. Net loss for the three months was $(1,900,507) or $(0.74) per share compared to net income of $53,881 or $0.03 per share in the year earlier.
Net loss for the quarter and the six months included approximately $1.3 million and $1.6 million, respectively, of non cash charges related to the convertible debentures sold in July 2005 and the conversion of a note payable.
Selected Financial Data
Three Months Ended Six Months Ended
December 31, December 31,
------------------------- -------------------------
2005 2004 2005 2004
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Net sales $22,340,176 $18,988,098 $35,471,589 $27,209,943
(Loss) income
from operations (393,578) 66,616 (1,329,837) (745,638)
Net (Loss) Income (1,900,507) 53,881 (3,242,539) (819,018)
Basic and diluted
(loss) income
per common share (.74) .03 (1.25) (.41)
December 31,
-------------------------
2005 2004
------------ ------------
Cash $ 2,931,568 $ 753,582
Current Assets 12,148,146 7,152,913
Current
Liabilities 10,599,628 7,393,188
Total Assets 19,027,838 13,819,035
Long-Term
Liabilities 4,265,226 3,846,814
Total
Stockholders'
Equity 4,162,984 2,579,033
Commenting on these results, Gregory Frost, Able's Chief Executive Officer, stated, "We are pleased with the continued improvement in our sales and the revenue generated from this increase in sales. The strength in our sales has continued to improve our balance sheet. In addition, through February 15, 2006, we have converted approximately $2.3 million of the convertible debentures into shares of the company's common stock. This conversion into equity will further improve our balance sheet. However, due to the exceptionally warm weather experienced in the Northeast this quarter our business produced a loss from operations for the second quarter of ($393,578) compared to a gain from operations of $66,616 a year ago." Frost concluded, "We continue to be especially excited about our potential acquisition of the Kentucky based Somerset Oil and Refinery as well as the introduction of the sale of bio-diesel blended home heating oil. We also anticipate concluding our transaction with All American Plazas, which will significantly grow our business this year."
Able is a holding company for five operating subsidiaries, which are engaged in the retail distribution of, and the provision of services relating to home heating oil, diesel fuel, kerosene, and in addition, Able provides complete HVAC installation and repair.
>:D >:D
David,
I traded ABLE many times last year.
Traders had fun with ABLE due to the low float and sector.
It would run up and double in a few days.
Then the traders would jump on a huge short position.
Nobody wanted to hold this bag. It is not for any amateur traders. Giant swings on price. You will be able (pun) to handle it, but seriously check the fundamentals before going long. There came a point where it stopped moving up with the sector.
But beware of the fundamentals. And check into the truck stop deal, etc.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=able
This is not a company to own for more than a trade, imo.
And you will need to be quick with this one. Day traders run the show.
Good Luck.
Dave,
Take a look at MEK - Very nice chart in a the energy sector
I fully agree with fill, though chart looks attractive I think there may be better charts with some safety.
Well david:
Fill the Gap had the best message about ABLE. I have been following ABle and used today as an entry point as well. Thought I picked the rebound at 8.75, but got hosed inthe last 15 mins as I went to the corner store and missed the plunge to daily low of 8.32. AH its trading lower. I am surprised as I think the deal that took it higher is solid, but if this does not bottom soon will have to cut my losses.
As Fill stated - this is a very dangerous stock, along with GEOI, which I usually play in.
I will research this more tonight and write more later, hopefully saving myself anymore losses OR convincing myself to stick around.
Good luck, but not a good entry point for you nor I
A high percentage of my trades are bought on pullbacks to support. Some never pull back enough so ones like LNUX I miss.
When you buy near support you can make a stop under support and loose only a little then wait for another set up. This can at times cause some whipsaws but I do not mind occasionally having to make more then one try at an entry before I am happy with it.
Very often on a pullback after a high volume gain the best entries come on day tow or day three. I am playing one now with SPEX I got today - Actually I got a starter position yesterday and added today at the 9-day EMA..
For ABLE it has now pulled back to the one trend line so a decent place to make a position but I like to see if they can make the 9-day - in this case it is $7.88. Often I will start a position at a trend line like now and then expect a possible draw down to the 9-day to add more.
I hate like we all do to miss an entry and have a stock take off without me but in those cases I have lost nothing and timed up no money. If I buy too early and above support I do not know when to sell at a loss and it may tie up money longer.
There are so many opportunities that in so many cases just waiting a bit for a trade to set up with better risk rewards is a better play.
Here is a live chart of ABLE - the 50-day and 9-day EMA look like decent risk reward entires if it drops below the trend line.
http://tinyurl.com/jraua
Quote from: fill_the_gap on February 22, 2006, 09:40:36 AM
David,
I traded ABLE many times last year.
Traders had fun with ABLE due to the low float and sector.
It would run up and double in a few days.
Then the traders would jump on a huge short position.
Nobody wanted to hold this bag. It is not for any amateur traders. Giant swings on price. You will be able (pun) to handle it, but seriously check the fundamentals before going long. There came a point where it stopped moving up with the sector.
But beware of the fundamentals. And check into the truck stop deal, etc.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=able
This is not a company to own for more than a trade, imo.
And you will need to be quick with this one. Day traders run the show.
Good Luck.
I was tempted to buy ABLE today but felt uneasy because looking at the chart, each high volume spike in the past seemed to be followed only by down days, and the early action in the stock seemed to be going that way as I watched it for the first 30 minuites.
In particular the descending trendline that David drew showed two marubozu candles on such sudden high volume days that looked to be followed by down days the next day. Looking again now, I see I sort of misjudged the first of those patterns. I think that I was just lucky to act on this hunch based on that mistake and thinking that history might repeat itself.
That being said, is anyone else thinking about trying tomorrow though?
ABLE $ 8.32
Able Energy Inc. -1.37
Shares Short 564,526
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 3.0
Short % of Float 37.64 %
Short % Increase/Decrease 7.32 %
Squeeze Ranking™ 161
Price % Change (52-wk) 142.25 %
% from 52-Week HIGH ( 22.98 ) -176.20 %
% from 200 DAY MA ( 9.98 ) -19.95 %
% from 50 Day MA ( 7.64 )
8.17 %
% from 52-Week LOW ( 3.10 ) 62.74 %
Shares Short -Prior Mo 526,018
Today's Trading Volume 982,318
Avg. Daily Volume 187,774
Today's Volume vs. Average 523.14 %
Market Cap 22,965,570
Outstanding Shares 2,760,285
Float 1,500,000
% Held by Insiders 0.97 %
% Held by Institutions 1.20 %
EPS
Ouch, the stock went down 14% on the day and 8% plus after I bought it. As a speculator, I am prepared for this, though 8% on 10% is 0.8% of my total capital, and that's a lot to lose in one single day in one single stock.
I will come back to using just 6.66% of capital in each stock as in the beginning of 3 Stocks, I can't bear this much risk and I need more diversification (I used to buy 3 stocks at the same time, usually 2 did well, and 1 did bad and on average, I made money - but, and this is interesting, usually my number 1 choice was the one that did bad).
Yesterday was a tough day, as I saw the stock gyrating but going mostly lower. ABLE is definitely a day trader's stock as fill_the_gap says, although volume usually dries down pretty quickly.
Probably this isn't a good trade, since good trades are profitable right from the start. And if it isn't a good trade, I should take my loss, protect capital and move on.
But I'll give Tuesday's marubozu one more chance. You see, the stock yesterday retraced 61.8% of the previous white candle. If we get a close below $8.30 anyday it's over, that marubozu was a short selling opportunity (one more). But if the stock rebounds from this level we can think there was a correction to the previous day's enormous rise, but the trend indeed turned bullish.
So, here's my trading plan:
1) If the stock is set to close above $8.30, HOLD;
2) If the stock is set to close below $8.30, SELL.
There are no heroes in the market place.
Dear David,
As I have been watching and trading along, I have lost more money than I did when I was working with fundamentals and thinking intermediate term. I have some observations, as I start to get my sea legs with trading.
1. When I think about ABLE, which I bought, what I saw on our site is that there was alot of information on this stock that could give pause, as "fill" pointed out.
2. One could have plotted some entry points, which would have been useful. I appreciated the post that did.
3. The technicals broke down because, I believe, Lehmann downgraded the oil sector and almost all the stocks tanked. Combined with what is known about this stock, I think it would have been better to wait.
4. Getting into a rise after the first day has proven to be risky. Maybe my observations are wrong, but I've seen so many stocks fail to continue. Of course, I don't have the experience to really judge these things except superficially.
5. David, you have made some incredible choices, which paused and then increased substantially. I think of CWPC.ob as one and SIFY as another. Sify's fundamentals would encourage one. I think looking at fundamentals is important in anything but a strict daytrade perspective. Maybe I'm wrong.
These are my observations. I am a true newbee to trading and respect the incredible knowledge that is displayed by the members and the knowledge and the humility displayed by you. It is astounding to watch you never let your ego get in the way.
With appreciation,
labelladonna
I show a trend line in the stockchart's chart but here is from Qcharts showing detail. The brown line is the 9-day EMA and the orange the 50-day EMA - they are meeting now. Stock should not break below those for my liking anyway and that is the point I like to make buys to have a stop near by.
(http://xs69.xs.to/pics/06084/abletrend.jpg)
They do not always work but sometimes you get lucky like today with NGRU - the buy at the 9-day pullback with a break out pattern could have triggered a sell but it went up and today did about 75% at one point.
http://tinyurl.com/lt3zp
Looks like 'someone' has an agenda with this stock. Did you guys see how they kept pushing the price down several times below the $8.30 support just before the close? I did not sell since it was hard telling which way it was going to close. I wonder if DR did.
What fill_the_gap says makes a lot of sense.....
QuoteDear David,
As I have been watching and trading along, I have lost more money than I did when I was working with fundamentals and thinking intermediate term. I have some observations, as I start to get my sea legs with trading.
It's been a though time, the last couple of months. I'll do my best so things get better in the future.
Quote1. When I think about ABLE, which I bought, what I saw on our site is that there was alot of information on this stock that could give pause, as "fill" pointed out.
2. One could have plotted some entry points, which would have been useful. I appreciated the post that did.
3. The technicals broke down because, I believe, Lehmann downgraded the oil sector and almost all the stocks tanked. Combined with what is known about this stock, I think it would have been better to wait.
4. Getting into a rise after the first day has proven to be risky. Maybe my observations are wrong, but I've seen so many stocks fail to continue. Of course, I don't have the experience to really judge these things except superficially.
Anyone thinking that way (waiting for a pullback to buy) would have lost moves 1 and 2 on the chart below:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=15816;image)
Do you think the stock went down because of the Lehman downgrade? I was not aware of that downgrade, but that's valuable information. I feel more positive about ABLE after that downgrade, since an analyst's opinion about a sector isn't a valid factor to take a stock up or down for long.
Quote5. David, you have made some incredible choices, which paused and then increased substantially. I think of CWPC.ob as one and SIFY as another. Sify's fundamentals would encourage one. I think looking at fundamentals is important in anything but a strict daytrade perspective. Maybe I'm wrong.
I agree.
QuoteThese are my observations. I am a true newbee to trading and respect the incredible knowledge that is displayed by the members and the knowledge and the humility displayed by you. It is astounding to watch you never let your ego get in the way.
With appreciation,
labelladonna
Thanks labelladonna :)
You know, I study stocks since 1996 but I traded mostly futures for the past 8 years. I made 180% plus last year on a $100,000 stocks only portfolio with a quite peculiar way of trading: momentum technical trading coupled with some fundamental indsight. As time went by I tried to be more of a fundamental analyst and investor, so I could be more usefull to 3 SOF subscribers.
But I don't think I was, since most are worried about short term performance, as I am.
I'm coming back to my old trading style ... ABLE fit my criteria, but it failed and I'm losing 9% on that position. But I could be up 30 or 40%, that is, stocks with the same pattern usually rise 30 or 40% the following days.
I follow 2 simple rules:
1) A good trade is profitable right from the start
2) Never let a profit turn into a loss
ABLE wasn't good right from the start, so probably it is a bad trade. I'm ready to accept this and pay the price (but I still hold my shares, as the close yesterday was too close to call).
metro's chart on a semi-log scale is much more encouraging than mine. I hope he gets his shares at this low point and the stock rebounds nicely. But I'll have to sell it if the close is set to be, say, below $8.20, because of risk management.
Thanks for your comments labelladonna, talking about strategy is the issue I love most on trading communities ... we can and should learn with each other, I'm all eyes and ears.
David,
I believe a big percentage of your success was on some big hits on some pennies. I'm not going to list them, but I think I am right. You no longer have them in the 3sof portfolio, so matching that success is going to be more difficult without those high risk/reward plays.
If I had made 180%, and a decent percentage was in pennies, I wouldn't be throwing out the idea of having one in the portfolio, even though you have a seperate portfolio for it. Just a thought.
Quote from: oicpecnoc on February 24, 2006, 11:24:16 PM
David,
I believe a big percentage of your success was on some big hits on some pennies. I'm not going to list them, but I think I am right. You no longer have them in the 3sof portfolio, so matching that success is going to be more difficult without those high risk/reward plays.
Yes, I checked all the trades. Three early pennies topped the gainners' list:
NAUC.PK , AMRE.OB and BRVO.OB gained 122.77%, 1,212.50% and 165.38%.
With those gains, the whole portfolio gained over 100% within one month after the
portfotlio started.
But the portfolio gained additional 20% from early June to the end of December: $250,000->$300,000.
That was pretty good (7 months +20%).
The first two months of 2006 was not kind for the portfolio. But no one can keep the portfolio gaining every month.
My portfolio had two 4-months continuing lossing stream since it started in 2001-06 but still
made 65% annualized gains in its near 5 year history.
I think that the key is to find out hot stocks in their early stage like last year's winners:
VPHM, AOB, IIJI,SVA, HOM, NVAX, GIGM
I think that DAVID will do much better later.
Shawfund,
I wasnt' suggesting there are not downtimes, I am suggesting the source of the explosive gains of last years portfolio should not be overlooked. To match Davids success, you would have to buy and sell exactly when he does every day. Not an easy thing for everybody with various lifestyles. Using stops when you cant be at your computer often results in you getting stopped out. Since it is kind of unrealistic to copy David exactly, and since taxes on short term trades are so high, a 7 month gain of 20% minus commissions results in how much actual profit? I would doubt people will continue to pay for this type of performance, but this is of course my very humble and often incorrect opinion. If I had success, I would revisit where it came from if I wanted to repeat it or get myself out of a slump.
3sof is the most civil discussion of stocks I have seen on the net. No percentage gain can or loss will ever diminish that accomplishment. It is a credit to everyone, but mostly David and Fred, however, I am not sure people will ultimately pay for civility and eductation.
Before I get hammered for this, everybody notice that all credit is due for the explosive picks early in the year, I am just identifying the source of many of them and noting that the source is no longer a part of the 3sof porfolio.
It is very difficult to make big gains by playing penny stocks.
The reason is simple: for a $0.02 stock and a $280,000 portfolio, allocating 6.6% of resource ($18,000) to buy a penny stock implies that you need to buy nearly 1 million shares.
Even 1,000 members followed the buy and each member only spent 1/10 of the money ($1,800) to buy, that will be a total of 100 million shares.
How many OB or Pk companies have 100 million shares for us to buy? None.
Thanks for the interesting discussion oicpecnoc and shawFund :)
I think you're both right !
Some trades in some penny stocks accounted for more than half of 2005's performance and that source of performance is no longer on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Also, it is impossible to trade penny stocks successfully with a $280,000 portfolio and 363 subscribers possibly following the picks. There's not enough liquidity.
Hopefully people will be interested in discussing picks, analyzing strategies and learning the game. If not, they can simply try to mirror the portfolio and probably get an above average return, but not a 100% or more annual return (unfortunately).
Anyway, thinking of the website's business model, I'm not very worried about it at this moment. I'll do my best everyday without much concern for the end results.
Concerning ABLE, the stock is holding pretty well around the white candlestick's midpoint. It looks like it is setting up to push higher again, after a three days consolidation.
If we buy breakouts there's always a strong possibility of some profit taking or consolidation, but the new trend is there, and trends usually resume.
Since ABLE is just a $25M market cap, it can eclipse recent profit taking in a big two or three day's rise.
Although I'm starting to get more positive on the outcome of this trade, I'll continue protecting risk, so I'll sell if the stock is set to close below $8.20.
My take on ABLE:
Since the company is not making money even the revenue has been growing, I am not comfortable to own this stock.
Also the chart history showed that the stock had few push ups with big volumes before but all failed to hold the gains (one day wonder).
May be this is a stock to buy at support.
Quote from: shawFund on February 27, 2006, 11:38:26 AM
My take on ABLE:
Since the company is not making money even the revenue has been growing, I am not comfortable to own this stock.
Also the chart history showed that the stock had few push ups with big volumes before but all failed to hold the gains (one day wonder).
May be this is a stock to buy at support.
Me too, I did not buy. So volatile ;)
But it touched the MA(50) today maybe it will bounce tomorrow.
Quote from: KCScott on February 22, 2006, 10:10:35 AM
Dave,
Take a look at MEK - Very nice chart in a the energy sector
Too Bad Dave never looked at MEK -
Doubled since I found it
Got stopped out at $ 9,50 ::) Nice profit. Couldn't sell with a loss on my birthday which 3SOF did ;) ;). Set my own plan and stuck to it. Happy I was able to buy ABLE.
Thanks David, for the tip.
Amarens