NICH has a very interesting story. The stock never got investor's attention, because its public float was so small that there was almost zero liquidity in shares.
But the company's fundamentals kept improving. Nobody cared anyway, you couldn't buy 10,000 shares without driving the price up to the moon.
So, on the 19th of December the company did this: Nitches, Inc. Announces 200% Stock Dividend (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=793&guid=%7B49A5FCEC%2D1199%2D4A36%2DAE45%2DD708A295E26C%7D&symb=)
Instead of selling shares in the open market, driving the price down but increasing liquidity, or making a private placement to issue some more shares and get money from selected investors at special conditions, it rewarded all shareholders by giving them 2 new shares for each they owned.
Still, the stock barely moved ... Only on January 10, when people got their stock dividend (also on this news: Nitches, Inc. Announces License for Dockers(R) T-shirts and Swimwear (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=793&guid=%7B609B4021%2DBC25%2D4A4A%2D903C%2D5E56CB1F2D39%7D&symb=) , the stock made a move with 357,000 shares traded. Then, on January 20th, NICH rose 138% on this news:
Nitches, Inc. Announces First Quarter Fiscal 2006 Results (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA3EBF091%2DCCFA%2D42D9%2D9C46%2DEC38EA9E33BB%7D&siteid=mktw&sid=793&symb=)
And yesterday, another 51% with no news to new all time highs.
Still, just a $30.97M market cap. Without a one time charge, net income for the first quarter fiscal 2006 was $936,000. If we annualize this, and we can do it because the order backlog increased from $13M to $23.4M, we get $3,744,000 in net income for full fiscal 2006, so the earnings multiple is 8.27.
Revenue growth was 132% and order backlog rose 80% from year ago levels. Still, the earnings multiple is just 8.27 and market cap is $31M. We can be almost sure the company won't dilute earnings, because they haven't done it in the past when they weren't profitable.
All in all, I'm not afraid to buy NICH this high, because I feel it should rise an additional 100% from current levels. The problem is if the open is too high (maybe not, since the stock rose so much yesterday, perhaps we'll have a lower open).
So, my trading plan is as follows: buy NICH around the open if there's no gap up (open must be below $7.94) - or else pass. If I can buy and I instantly have a 20% profit, I'll take it. If not, I'll continue holding.
It certainly had a nice day yesterday. Too bad we didn't know about it yesterday morning....LOLOLOL.
I'll watch this one close but I would be very careful about a sharp pullback.
Look at CTTY yesterday. I missed the rally but shorted the crash for a nice gain.
Good LUCK!!!
Bought this intimate stock near high of days, :(
Feel like looser now :)
In my limited technical analysis I think NICH should hold 6.10 in next week to be considered for any hope for recovery. In the face of 51% gain on Thursday, I think 8% loss on Friday seems not too alarming. But will hold unless NICH closes below 6.10 on above avg volume.
Quote from: calguy on February 24, 2006, 08:53:53 AM
It certainly had a nice day yesterday. Too bad we didn't know about it yesterday morning....LOLOLOL.
I'll watch this one close but I would be very careful about a sharp pullback.
Look at CTTY yesterday. I missed the rally but shorted the crash for a nice gain.
Good LUCK!!!
CTTY is also an interesting momentum stock, with an exceptionally low market cap of just $17M. But I would be carefull shorting this, if fundamentals improve a bit more this thing can fly to $100 without any problem.
But there are many differences between CTTY and NICH, on a fundamental and technical perspective, this is why I expect NICH to continue to push higher:
1) NICH has a $28M market cap, CTTY is $17M;
2) NICH had $33M in revenues over the last 4 quarters, CTTY had $0.26M;
3) NICH is profitable, CTTY is losing money. NICH pays dividends;
4) NICH is trading near all time highs, CTTY is 63% below its all time high.
Considering all this I think NICH is worth much more than CTTY, probably 5 times more.
Quote from: stocky on February 25, 2006, 02:44:26 AM
Bought this intimate stock near high of days, :(
Feel like looser now :)
I believe you did well and that high you bought will probably be a low sometime soon.
Yes, bulls were resting on Friday after pushing NICH up 51%, but the day was still constructive and fundamentals warrant a much higher price.
There are three supports, prior resistance levels, and NICH closed above the three of them. I expect this stock to make new highs above $8.34 soon, possibly as soon as today.
I'll continue holding NICH.
I bought NICH at $5.25 a while ago at support but was shaken out during its down to $4.50.
Out at $5.15.
Another lesson to be learned: before a stock to fly, mm first wants to shake out many weak hands by pushing the stock down.
Two ways to deal with such situation:
1. hold it, even add position at lower price if you believe that its fundamental is sound, undervalued;
2. exit it to take a small loss but constantly watching it and re-take position on its way back.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 27, 2006, 06:58:54 AM
There are three supports, prior resistance levels, and NICH closed above the three of them. I expect this stock to make new highs above $8.34 soon, possibly as soon as today.
It did. Good prediction.
Once again, great job David!
I'm glad I bought it at 6.80 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D (lower than your purchasing price *^^*)
Thanks for the great work!
Thanks David, I was down big time on this one. Today I sold NICH with modest profit and heck I am happy about it.
Applaud David and personally thanks. :)
Stocky, why sell so quick? The chart looks poised for a strong move. I will look to buy tomorrow with a short-term target of $13. I think I've found my NICHe - making money in the markets.
NICH reminds me of moves like in FORD and XWG. I do think that this one is going to move higher, but I had not been discplined with this trade and put a heck lot of %age in it. So for me sitting on the sidelines would be ok. ;)
I'm glad stocky could get out of NICH with a profit. This is why it is important to have some fundamental background, even on technical picks.
We have news that an insider sold 50,000 shares yesterday. The stock gave me the chance to take the 20% fast profit that I wanted to get confidence back up, but I didn't take it yesterday.
If the stock trades down to $6 or so again it could damage my coming back to above average performance.
But still, the stock is fundamentally undervalued and the chart remains extremely bullish.
I'll give it a chance and hold it, expecting higher prices to come.
Does it still take courage to buy this now? Not anymore I think. It looks like it will make new highs very soon.
The title of this thread is scary. I wish David had used the word "rocket" instead of "bomb". I want my stocks to rocket, not bomb! I bought this morning at $8.03. I must be very courageous.
Luke I mustered the courage at exactly the same 8.03 ;) when I bought it few days back.
Had I not been scared of market I would have been buying back this stock. Just watch for support at 7.10. No resistance overhead.
Goodluck.
This pick is similiar to eliteG's G-pattern.
Stocks with first break-out then pull back may have second break-out.
Currently, our INSM, ANGN, DIET, TRAD, EZM seem all fit this pattern - working on the second break-out.
The key is to dig out the stocks with good fundamental.
LNUX may be another play. Look at RHAT. LNUX may follow RHAT footsteps just like DIET may follow NTRI's. Also, AXYX starts uptrend. STP may also work on the second break-out.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on February 28, 2006, 08:30:31 PM
The title of this thread is scary. I wish David had used the word "rocket" instead of "bomb". I want my stocks to rocket, not bomb! I bought this morning at $8.03. I must be very courageous.
Yes, «rocket» could have been better, but «bomb» also alerts you for the short term volatility and risk involved (I lack some adjectives in English, that's the main reason ;D)
Quote from: netfishmademerich on February 28, 2006, 05:56:55 PM
Does it still take courage to buy this now? Not anymore I think. It looks like it will make new highs very soon.
I agree netfishmademerich, after the last 3 days of «consolidation», it looks much more safe to buy NICH now. No doubt most people took profits, but still the stock held. The trend is bullish and it will probably continue.
I'm not selling NICH with a 20% profit anymore ... looking for something above $10.
Traders are still deciding which way to go on NICH. Over the past 3 sessions, we had higher lows and lower highs on each candle, which tells me about this indecision.
Soon they will have to make a decision, as it is hard for the stock to stand still. I think bulls have two factors running in their favor:
1) The trend is bullish, and trends usually persist;
2) Fundamentals are still very attractive, as the stock is probably worth about $16.
The bears only have this in their favor: «it rose too much».
Bull's reasons are much stronger than bear's, bulls will certainly prevail.
I'll continue holding NICH.
More volume and a new all time high today on NICH. The battle is over, the bulls won, as we thought 8)
The technical target of this breakout is $8.90-$6.57 = $11.23.
I'll continue holding NICH.
I feel very courageous for having held onto this bomb!!
Quote from: shawFund on March 01, 2006, 04:48:40 AM
This pick is similiar to eliteG's G-pattern.
Stocks with first break-out then pull back may have second break-out.
I wonder if people understand that the "G-Pattern" is really the same thing as a flag breakout, which is one of the most common patterns in all of technical analysis. G-Pattern is catchy though. Can we name the sunrise after me? Every time the sun rises in the east, please begin referring to it as "The LukeLighter"
hi,
got in today at 8.75
unfortunately more of a backyard rocket built by a twelve yearold. goes up to the top of the house and fizzles.
bummmer,
maxi ;D
NICH is the year to date TOP gainer.
It gained 300% since Jan 1, 2006r.
Here is the table for the top 20:
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 03, 2006, 11:56:25 AM
I wonder if people understand that the "G-Pattern" is really the same thing as a flag breakout, which is one of the most common patterns in all of technical analysis.
People don't, because It's not the same. Read carefully about both, and you'll find the differences. I guess it could be called a subset though, just like squares are a subset of rectangles.
QuoteNICH is the year to date TOP gainer.
It gained 300% since Jan 1, 2006r.
Here is the table for the top 20:
Thanks for that table shawFund :) That probably explains why the stock fizzles, as rickjust says. It is up 300% year to date, so people are very tempted to take profits.
But the stock is still quite undervalued at this point. The company has just $33M in market cap, while annualized revenues and profits are $58.8M and $3.74M, respectively.
NICH's fair value, with the current information, is about $14-$15 a share. I'm not thinking of selling it below $12, because management has made all the right steps to increase shareholder value.
NICH got a very appealing chart! (Sorry for not using semi-log scale, but just love to see it straight).
This powerful uptrend could be still in development stage, and we have several good indications from a technical point of view. Crossing the $7.00 support (January's high) with the ascending support line, we can have a good upside reaction in a few days, on the «place» where this 2 lines are tied.
Although, the volume is decreasing a bit, and taking in consideration this fast run in 2005, we should apply some security measures to this trading plan:
- We are setting a stop level @ the EMA20, which has been working great during this entire rally. This reference is $6.77 right now, and will be our stop level on this trade.
My best regards !
Is your stop on Closing price or Intraday?
Quote from: stocky on March 13, 2006, 08:55:09 AM
Is your stop on Closing price or Intraday?
Hi Stocky,
It's on intraday. If stock prints $6.77 its a Sell.
regards !
Nice move today, it may setup a nice tone for the week.
The only reason for this update is to set the stop level up to $6.85 which is the new spot of the EMA-20.
The volume today is below 80,000 shares? Am I reading this correct? You've got to be kidding me.
A little volume increase today, but still considerably low. NICH tried a small rally during the morning, but not strong enough to prevail.
Our stop level for tomorrow will be the EMA-20 again, and that is $6.92
Best regards,
We have been using the EMA-20 as a moving stop level for NICH. Right now the EMA-20 is $6.99, but taking in consideration $7.00 is also an important technical reference; we don't want to compromise this trade in case of a normal correction / re-test of the $7.00 mark.
So we'll start using $6.92 as a stop level, and let this trade develop.
Best regards,
No special updates for NICH, this stock is moving on a tight range, but not correcting its move yet. We expect a new test on the ascending trend line and an upside reaction after that.
We'll be holding NICH with a stop @ $6.92 for now (we'll be updating a higher stop level soon).
NICH is still moving on a tight trading range, and approaching its ascending support... real low volume, but this is a small (micro) cap, so that's normal. This range is giving some consolidation to NICH, and we are still expecting an upside reaction at any moment. Our plan will be the same:
We'll be holding NICH with a stop @ $6.92
Hi Frederick, I bought NICH yesterday, nice pick you guys made! Seems to me that the stock is ready to move out of the tight range in which it has been trading lately, it has really shown a lot of support above $7 since 02/28/06 and I like that. What is significant about yesterday is the fact that the stock closed at historical high $8.24. I expect a nice move upwards this week. Good luck!
Quote from: cache00 on March 25, 2006, 04:26:13 PM
Hi Frederick, I bought NICH yesterday, nice pick you guys made! Seems to me that the stock is ready to move out of the tight range in which it has been trading lately, it has really shown a lot of support above $7 since 02/28/06 and I like that. What is significant about yesterday is the fact that the stock closed at historical high $8.24. I expect a nice move upwards this week. Good luck!
Thanks cache00, you already said everything... NICH closed on a new historical high (on close), and it seems that is ready to move forward above from this consolidation zone / trading range.
Despite the low volume (which is normal in this kind of stock), NICH is perhaps gaining some momentum, and will probably reach new highs during the week.
The confirmation of this technical pattern (an aggressive ascending channel), will be a close above the historical highs: $9.19, during this potential move the volume should increase a lot (that's also important).
We are just going to keep our plan, although we can be raising our stop level in the next days:
We'll be holding NICH with a stop @ $6.92Regards,
These low volume micro caps sometimes are really nice to trade ;)
NICH looks like its preparing another launch over new highs... This technical pattern is very aggressive, but it's been working well, so we are just going to ride it as long as we can (and with some precautions off course). We're now expecting a big white candle, just like it happened in January and February.
Since NICH has clearly breakout the recent trading range, we have to setup a new trading plan, upgrading our stop level and setting up a Limit Sell order in case we have the «big white»:
We'll be holding NICH with a stop @ $7.50 and a Limit Sell order @ $10.50
Regards !
Not a good session for NICH, after almost breaking into new highs, NICH had a big correction during the rest of the day, closing near the support line. That's the other face of the coin when trading a micro-cap like NICH, this big volatility...
Tomorrow we'll be an important day, since this support is now in check... Our trading plan seems adequate, and we'll keep it:
We'll be holding NICH with a stop @ $7.50 and a Limit Sell order @ $10.50
Last chance for NICH...
Today it closed below the support, not a good sign for our chart pattern; we'll keep our stop level and give one more day for NICH to rebound.
We'll be holding NICH with a stop @ $7.50
After the recent fake breakout on the upside, NICH is now developing a strange pattern; we can be facing a double top followed by a broken support line, this situation changes our technical overview on this stock.
Taking the risk of being too conservative now, we're are changing the plan and not waiting for our stop to be triggered:
We'll Sell NICH tomorrow during the morning, and we'll keep NICH on our watch list.
Regards,
Rams,
Could we try to give it a little bit more room? Is it possible to use a more horizontal uptrend channel?
Also, the EMA-20 has not been broken and it has shown support so far.
Gentlemen,
I haven't paid attention enough I guess to the floats of some of the picks throughout the history of the portfolio, but if a lot of the same people are playing the same low float stock and following instructions, it could punish a stock severely. I am not sure what you can do about it, but on a stock like that if someone says boo it goes down 20 cents, so imaging 200 people dumping at the same time. Perhaps low floaters should be exited via the stop, and not an announced sell. Just a thought.
I want to start by saying I have huge respect for the TA of the 3SOF team. They know way more then I do, and I'm learning every day.
In the case of NICH I also drew my card like Bocasva did. What is the reason you choose a steeper TL channel, starting below the first break out? Rams, I'm curious to know ??? ???
Provided the answer, I'm possibly willing to give NICH I'm a little more room. The base of the channel is an ascending TL that for today stands at $ 7,64. If Nich is set to close below :-[, I'll sell.
Hope to hear from the TA team
Amarens
Quote from: oicpecnoc on March 31, 2006, 12:57:42 AM
Gentlemen,
I haven't paid attention enough I guess to the floats of some of the picks throughout the history of the portfolio, but if a lot of the same people are playing the same low float stock and following instructions, it could punish a stock severely. I am not sure what you can do about it, but on a stock like that if someone says boo it goes down 20 cents, so imaging 200 people dumping at the same time. Perhaps low floaters should be exited via the stop, and not an announced sell. Just a thought.
I agree. For portfolio that may be followed by many people, low-volume stocks are not he good ones to recommend such as ANGN, ... When the sell order is sent and many people followed, the stock may get crushed. Later followers may lost big.
The difference in the channel drawings for NICH is due to <<log/linear>> chart difference. Ramsburg is using a linear chart and in that case the channel is broken and we need to sell. Ramsburg has been doing TA for a long-time ;)..
On the Float issue: Same sized floats can actually act quite differently. Some of the best opportunities are created in lower float stocks by buying on the way up and selling before the run is over. We manage this risk by running a diversified portfolio.. only risking 6.66% in every position.. and not having each position be a low floater.
update:
1)
Nitches, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2006 Results
Friday July 21, 9:00 am ET
Sales and Earnings Improve, Order Backlog Increases 185% to $38.8 Million
SAN DIEGO, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jul 21, 2006 -- Nitches, Inc. (NASDAQ:NICH - News) announced today its results for the three and nine month periods ended May 31, 2006. Highlights included:
-- Net sales for the quarter increased 70% to $12.6 million from prior
year
-- Quarterly earnings per share of $.01 versus year ago $.05 loss
-- $1.6 million comparative improvement in net income year-to-date
ADVERTISEMENT
Consolidated net sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2006 grew 70% to $12.6 million versus $7.4 million for the third quarter of 2005. The increase was driven by the Company's newly acquired Designer Intimates business, but also includes organic sales growth in the Company's menswear product line. Consolidated net sales for the first nine months of fiscal 2006 increased 110% to $27.0 million from $12.9 million for the first half of fiscal 2005. Designer Intimates contributed $12.3 million of the $14.1 million increase.
For the remaining three months of the fiscal year ending August 31, 2006 the Company has shipped and on-hand orders totaling $14.7 million. At this time last year the Company had comparable orders of $6.6 million. Additionally, to date, the Company has received orders for shipment in the first quarter of fiscal 2007 of $24.1 million. At this time last year the Company had comparable orders on hand for the first quarter of fiscal 2006 of $6.9 million. These increases are due to additional orders reported as a result of the acquisitions of Designer Intimates and the Home Décor product line, as well as increased orders and earlier order placement for the company's menswear, sleepwear, and private label product lines.
The Company earned consolidated net income of $33,000 for the third quarter of fiscal 2006, reversing a loss of $188,000 in the year earlier period. Third quarter earnings per share were $.01 versus a loss of $.05 for the third quarter of fiscal 2005.
For the nine months ended May 31, 2006 the Company earned $.15 per weighted average share as compared to a $.21 loss in the year earlier period. Consolidated pretax income was $1.4 million and net income was 598,000 for the current nine month period, whereas the company incurred a consolidated pretax loss of $1.2 million and an after tax loss of $724,000.
Per share amounts include the weighted average effect of 180,000 shares issued in conjunction with the acquisition of Designer Intimates on October 24, 2005. Per share amounts further reflect a 200% stock dividend issued on January 20, 2006 which had the effect of a 3-for-1 stock split.
Nitches currently distributes men's casual lifestyle clothing by Newport Blue®, Dockers® men's swimwear and t-shirts, golf apparel by The Skins Game®, women's sleepwear and loungewear by Body Drama® and women's western wear by Adobe Rose®, Saguaro® and Southwest Canyon®. With the recent acquisition of Designer Intimates, the Company markets sleepwear, robes, loungewear, and daywear under the following brands: Gossard®, Derek Rose®, Princesse tam tam®, Crabtree & Evelyn®, The Anne Lewin® Collection, The Bill Blass® Lifestyle Collection, The Dockers® Collection, The Claire Murray® Collection and The Vassarette® Collection. Products are sold to better department stores, specialty boutiques, moderate department stores, and national and regional discount department stores and chains. The Company also develops and manufactures private label products for many leading retailers and multi-channel marketers.
2) chart update:
Flying pre market ;D
35%
I think we could see a bounce here in NICH. I bougt at 3.99 and 4.00. Let her go!