NTO's profile: Northern Orion Resources Incorporated. The Group's principal activity is exploration and development of copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, cobalt and other minerals. The Group operates primarily in Argentina and Cuba.
The company will release earnings on Monday. I want to buy it today before the earnings release, here's why:
Northern Orion Reports Record Quarterly Earnings (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BAD4B4E8D%2D4C64%2D48C7%2D8A9E%2DC9685F32A0F9%7D&siteid=mktw&sid=1489054&symb=)
Highlights:
«Northern Orion is pleased to report record quarterly net earnings of $12,871,000 or $0.09 per share for the three months ended September 30, 2005 ("Q3 2005") compared to net earnings of $5,721,000 or $0.05 per share for the same period in 2004 ("Q3 2004").»
If we annualize this we get $0.36 in EPS, so the earnings multiple is $3.97/$0.36 = 11.
But it gets better, read this:
«Average realized copper price was $1.85 per pound and average realized gold price was $452 per ounce in Q3 2005. The Company's share of Alumbrera sales during the quarter was 12,856,000 pounds of copper and 16,072 ounces of gold.»
You know copper and gold prices now are much higher than this, so almost certainly the company will report more than $0.09 in EPS for the 4th quarter.
So the earnings multiple on NTO is even lower than 11 and shortly everybody will see it and jump on the bandwagon. NTO will report 4th quarter earnings on Monday: Northern Orion to Release Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results on March 6, 2006 (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1489054&guid=%7BB999581C%2D7117%2D47AA%2DB5A0%2D3092A6377549%7D&symb=)
NTO is a cheap copper and gold producer, and the chart is bullish.
I'll buy NTO for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio around today's open, 6.66% as usual.
Hi David,
A very good pick!!!
I am a holder of The Candian Warrants for more than a year. It is a great stock with a great fundamental future.
Jacob
Another note:
From looking at the earning of their partners at the Alumbrera mine I can guess that Nto earning would be around 20m for the 4th Q
Quote from: jkotlicki on March 05, 2006, 11:04:51 AM
Hi David,
A very good pick!!!
I am a holder of The Candian Warrants for more than a year. It is a great stock with a great fundamental future.
Jacob
Thanks Jacob, it looks that way ...
Quote from: jkotlicki on March 05, 2006, 11:14:57 AM
Another note:
From looking at the earning of their partners at the Alumbrera mine I can guess that Nto earning would be around 20m for the 4th Q
Thanks for that fundamental indsight. I still don't know much about NTO, but I sure like the fact that it closed at a new all time high on Friday 8)
You say $20M on Q4? That would be awesome, since they made «just» $12.87M on Q3.
Earnings will probably be released after the close today, expect a pop up tomorrow.
I look forward to get those earnings from NTO and probably I'll continue holding after earnings, since a positive surprise usually has an effect that goes beyond the initial market reaction.
VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 6, 2006--Northern Orion
(TSX:NNO)(AMEX:NTO) is pleased to report record net earnings of $18,695,000
($0.13 per share) for the fourth quarter of 2005 ("Q4 2005") and net earnings of
$44,128,000 ($0.31 per share) for the year ended December 31, 2005, compared
with net loss of $16,477,000 ($0.15 per share) and net earnings of $1,229,000
($0.01 per share) for the same periods in 2004 respectively.
Fourth Quarter 2005 Highlights
- The Company's share of operating cash flow before interest, depletion,
depreciation, amortization and tax ("EBITDA") from Alumbrera was $31,295,000
($0.21 per share) for the quarter, compared to $16,027,000 ($0.14 per share)
for the fourth quarter of 2004 ("Q4 2004"), representing an increase of 95%.
- Equity in earnings from Alumbrera was $20,260,000 ($0.14 per share) in Q4
2005, compared to $9,275,000 ($0.08 per share) for Q4 2004, an increase of
118%.
- Average realized copper price was $2.27 per pound (Q4 2004 - $1.51) and
average realized gold price was $498 per ounce (Q4 2004 - $451). The Company's
share of Alumbrera sales during the quarter was 16,498,000 pounds of copper (Q4
2004 - 10,970,000) and 23,067 ounces of gold (Q4 2004 - 17,301). Compared to Q4
2004, copper and gold prices increased 50% and 10% respectively, and copper and
gold sales increased 50% and 33% respectively.
- During the quarter, the Company repaid the entire balance of its term loan
with Bayerische Hypo-und Vereinsbank ("HVB") to become debt-free.
Full Year Highlights
- The Company's share of operating cash flow before interest, depletion,
depreciation, amortization and tax ("EBITDA") from Alumbrera was $75,500,000
($0.53 per share) for the year, compared to $58,243,000 ($0.53 per share) for
2004, representing an increase of 30%.
- Equity in earnings from Alumbrera was $46,755,000 ($0.33 per share) in 2005,
compared to $32,659,000 ($0.30 per share) for 2004, an increase of 43%.
- Average realized copper price was $1.88 per pound (2004 - $1.36) and average
realized gold price was $452 per ounce (2004 - $415). The Company's share of
Alumbrera sales during the quarter was 50,666,000 pounds of copper (2004 -
46,408,000) and 71,777 ounces of gold (2004 - 75,507). Compared to 2004, copper
and gold prices increased by 38% and 9% respectively. Copper sales increased by
9% while gold sales decreased by 5%.
- During the year, the Company made significant progress on a feasibility study
for the development of its Agua Rica project. The study is expected to be
completed by mid 2006, and discussions for the financing of the project are
well under way.
- In February 2005, the Company raised gross proceeds of Cdn.$125,012,500
(U.S.$101,637,000) from a short-form prospectus offering of units. The proceeds
of this financing are intended to be for development of the Agua Rica project.
- During the year, the Company realized a foreign exchange gain of $2,033,000
by converting a portion of its cash held in Canadian dollars (Cdn.$74 million)
into U.S. dollars.
- At December 31, 2005, the Company had a cash position (including temporary
investments) of $135,911,000.
"2005 was a very successful period for the Company as copper prices reached
all-time highs and we generated record net earnings," said David Cohen,
President and CEO of Northern Orion. "In 2006, we intend to build on the
momentum created by the significant progress at Agua Rica through 2005. We will
complete the Agua Rica feasibility study, advance our commercial negotiations
for its project financing and for concentrate off-take in order to commence
mine construction at Agua Rica. We believe that 2006 will be another good year
for earnings and we look forward to building our cash position with continued
strong cash flows from Alumbrera as the outlook for metal prices stays
positive."
Teleconference call details
Northern Orion will host a telephone conference call and webcast on Tuesday 7th
March at 10:00 a.m. Eastern (7:00 a.m. Pacific) to discuss these results. The
conference call may be accessed by dialing 1-800-319-4610 in Canada and the
United States, or 1-604-638-5340 internationally and the webcast may be
accessed by going to http://services.choruscall.com/links/orion--fyr05.html.
Thanks for posting the results AussieTrader :)
I believe they were great ! $0.13 a share for the quarter gives me $0.52 EPS for a full year, so the earnings multiple is 7.78.
This company is undervalued because people don't believe copper prices will stay this high for long. But they can be wrong, as often analysts are ... bull trends always go much beyond anybody expects, and the basic materials bull market can be just beginning.
Anyway, the stock is down 2% as I write, because copper futures are down 1.3%.
I continue to be a bull on NTO, as I think the copper mining group will be a stellar performer in 2006.
Maybe the stock is down because the higher copper prices were already factored into the price?
Strange day for NTO, still i believe this too be a good pick. Price action looks to be forming an ascending triangle. Im buying if and when it breaks out. Pivot long is 4.10.
-fous
IMO, NTO is way undervalued, and is a long term hold. The current stock price reflects only its 12.5% ownership stake in Alumbrera, and does not give ANY value to its $100billion asset, Auga Rica. The bankable feasibility study for AR is due out next quarter, at which time this stock will likely either be bought out, or trading considerably higher than its current price.
The CEO gave a very informative conference call this morning, and if you haven't heard it, I highly recommend listening to the webcast version, which you can find on NTO's website. The numbers and projections should blow you away.
Anyway, I have been a big fan of NTO for a few years now. While I do take the opportunity to trade the volatility, the closer they get to the completition of the bankable feasibility study, the less inclined I am to trade it and possibly miss out on a parabolic rise in the stock price. Note that this stock almost always has large price swings, so it is not for the faint of heart. The long term trend, however, should be much higher.
There is a lot of good info on the company's website. I also started a link for NTO here a few months ago: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3914.0
In this morning at 3.92. Looks like we got a nice looking morning doji start forming here.
-fous
Morning Doji Star
Significance: bullish
Indication: reversal
# of candles: 3
Previous Trend: Bearish
The Morning Doji Star pattern is characterizes by 3 candles. The fisrt day is a long black candle reinforcing the already bearish downtrend. The second is gaps down and forms a doji candle, indicating confusion in the market and a reversal could be upon us. And finally the 3rd day forms a white candle whose closing price pushes well into the real body of the first black day that occurred in this pattern. A gap up on the 3rd day is preferred for an ideal bullish Morning Star pattern though is not required. Confirmation of this pattern is provided by a higher close on the 4th day.
Note: Candlestick reversal patterns are significantly more potent when occuring near areas of support and resistence.
The price of gold is correcting, causing NTO and other miners to fall today. Patience is the key to holding the miners. Gold and other metals are still in a long term bull market, but, like everything else, there are corrections along the way.
Quote from: David Randolph on March 06, 2006, 12:28:54 PM
Thanks for posting the results AussieTrader :)
I believe they were great ! $0.13 a share for the quarter gives me $0.52 EPS for a full year, so the earnings multiple is 7.78.
This company is undervalued because people don't believe copper prices will stay this high for long. But they can be wrong, as often analysts are ... bull trends always go much beyond anybody expects, and the basic materials bull market can be just beginning.
Anyway, the stock is down 2% as I write, because copper futures are down 1.3%.
I continue to be a bull on NTO, as I think the copper mining group will be a stellar performer in 2006.
NTO - seems to be content hanging around inside the ascending triangle waiting for things to happen and for now we will let this trade develop. Just in case it does not(we must be prepared in every play) we will place a stop @ 3.48 in case the ascending triangle is broken and cannot recover. 8)
We will hold NTO with a stop of 3.48.
update NTO:
NTO is attacking the top of its ascending triangle. >:D It is good to see volume go up with a move like this and I would think it normal to see some price rejection Friday. The placement of my stop was too far away and I am glad I get to fix it right here. I am going to get aggressive and count on the 20ema being able to provide support.
We will sell NTO if it hits our stop @ 3.83.
update NTO:
Since the last update NTO broke its ascending triangle on great volume! We will use that triangle projection to put in a target sell of 4.90. Our stop-loss also moves up to a sell if close below 3.95. NTO looks fantastic!
We are holding NTO but will sell if it reaches our target of 4.90 or is set to close below 3.95.
Hi,
A question for any trade:
Why wouldn't you on a any winner trade let it run it course with a tight trailing stop order & not put a deffinite sell price?
Thanks,
Jacob
Quote from: jkotlicki on March 28, 2006, 09:29:33 AM
Hi,
A question for any trade:
Why wouldn't you on a any winner trade let it run it course with a tight trailing stop order & not put a deffinite sell price?
Thanks,
Jacob
From my experiance t-stops (which are usually based on a set % below the actual price) are ok in some circumstances, but they do not take into account support / resistance. It is better when setting a stop to put it below certain support areas / previous reaction low areas so that you are using real support zones to protect your position. Also, if you don't have a sell target, then you will likely exit a trade emotionally rather than mechanically / based on resistance / logical targets e.g. a moving average or top of a trading channel.
Good luck
Thanks for the explanation.
Quote from: jkotlicki on March 28, 2006, 09:29:33 AM
Hi,
A question for any trade:
Why wouldn't you on a any winner trade let it run it course with a tight trailing stop order & not put a deffinite sell price?
Thanks,
Jacob
I also wanted to add(AussieTrader gave a great response) that we decided to put a target on NTO because that is the natural projected target of the pattern it was in(an ascending triangle).. I also wanted a reason to be able to sell this stock before $5 resistance set in. $5 is a psychological resistance level that at the very least will slow the progress of NTO.
update
NTO:
NTO gapped today.. and tried to go higher but was turned back by the rest of the market. Thtas ok it still finished nicely. :) The purpose of this update is to move out stop higher.
We will hold NTO unless it hits out target of 4.90 or closes below 4.27.
Hi G,
Thank you for the update. Should we be concerned with the MACD and the STOCHASTICS being in the overbought area?
thanks,
rafael
Quote from: mexirafa on March 30, 2006, 09:37:39 PM
Hi G,
Thank you for the update. Should we be concerned with the MACD and the STOCHASTICS being in the overbought area?
thanks,
rafael
Hey rafael - many of the stocks in the 3sof portfolio show overbought signals.. the strongest stocks continue to show overbought as they trend upward because stochastic, cci, william%r, RSI ..etc are oscillators and work best when a stock is oscillating or stuck in a
range. MACD doesnt have overbought/oversold levels. My advice is stay away from indicators completely. Stick to price and volume. ;)
Thank you much! ;D
update NTO:
Nice move today on lighter volume... it brings us close to our target. ;) Perhaps we will hit it tomorrow or later this week.
It is trading at our target in the pre- market hours. ;D
Quote from: mexirafa on April 05, 2006, 09:27:24 AM
It is trading at our target in the pre- market hours. ;D
Nice! :o
Sold at 4.90 ;D
It was a nice ride!!
Man, have you checked out the monthly chart???. :o.
This could be a nice pick for the long term.
imo,
rafael
Just dropped in to say Hi and that I'm still holding NTO since $4.00- Sitting at $6.20 now
This is a good example of why I don't like setting high sell targets:
The chart is outstanding, the fundamentals great and the sector on fire.
Press Release Source: Northern Orion Resources Inc.
Northern Orion Shareholders Approve Plan of Arrangement With Yamana Gold Inc.
Wednesday August 22, 2:10 pm ET
UPDATE - Northern Orion OKs Yamana deal, Meridian opposed
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Aug 22, 2007 -- Northern Orion Resources Inc. (Toronto:NNO.TO - News)(AMEX:NTO - News) is pleased to announce that its shareholders have approved the Plan of Arrangement with Yamana Gold Inc. ("Yamana"). At a Special Meeting of Northern Orion shareholders held in Vancouver earlier today, the Arrangement was approved by 83.1% of the votes cast and no notices of dissent were received.
Under the terms of the Arrangement, Northern Orion shareholders will receive 0.543 of a Yamana share plus Cdn.$0.001 in cash for each Northern Orion share. Among other regulatory requirements, completion of the Arrangement between Northern Orion and Yamana remains subject to at least 66 2/3% of Meridian Gold Inc. ("Meridian") shares being tendered to the Yamana offer for Meridian. Yamana's offer for Meridian is scheduled to expire on September 7, 2007.
Commenting on the results, David Cohen, Northern Orion's President and CEO said, "Northern Orion's strong shareholder support for the Arrangement demonstrates our clear commitment to the business combination with Yamana. This positive vote also considerably simplifies the transaction involving Northern Orion, Yamana and Meridian in that an essential condition has now been removed from the transaction. We continue to believe that the resulting company will have one of the strongest growth profiles and cash flow generating abilities in the intermediate gold producer category."
David Cohen, President and CEO
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This news release contains "forward-looking statements" and "forward-looking information" under applicable Canadian and United States securities laws concerning the proposed transaction involving Yamana, Northern Orion and Meridian. Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management at the date the statements are made, and are based on a number of assumptions and subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Assumptions upon which forward-looking statements related to the proposed business combination of Northern Orion and Yamana include that Yamana will be successful in acquiring 100% of the issued and outstanding Meridian shares, that all required third party regulatory and governmental approvals to the transactions will be obtained and all other conditions to the completion of the transaction between Yamana and Northern Orion and the conditions to the Yamana offer for Meridian will be satisfied or waived. Many of these assumptions are based on factors and events that are not within the control of Northern Orion and there is no assurance they will prove to be correct. Northern Orion is under no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change except as required by applicable securities laws. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance of forward-looking statements.
Contact:
Contacts:
Northern Orion Resources Inc.
Investor Relations
1-866-608-9970
Email:
[email protected] Website: http://www.northernorion.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Northern Orion Resources Inc.
52wk Range: 3.28 - 6.25
Volume: 5,178,700
Avg Vol (3m): 988,060
Market Cap: 915.28M
P/E (ttm): 16.10
EPS (ttm): 0.37
Technicals
Most Actives
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
20.22%above 13-day MA
17.01%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 88
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $329.28
P/E Ratio: 503.33
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: 11/13/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Market Perform