ILMN - Illumina, Inc. engages in the development and marketing of tools for the analysis of genetic variation and function.. and we will short them.
Technically ILMN is offering us a unique opportunity for a short(great risk/reward ratio) and so we must take it. With only 7.57% of the float short: (http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=ilmn&submit=Enter)
there should be plenty of shares to sell. (minimizes chance of a squeeze).
Also encouraging is the steady selling of insider shares: (http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0001110803&ticker=ilmn)
The first chart portrays the reasons we are taking this technical short. The blue trend line is broken and begins acting as resistance. ILMN stops climbing when it meets the prior high creating a double top situation with evidence from the negative divergence of the indicators.
One could also draw a bullish ascending triangle pattern here but ILMN seems too far extended above its mvg avgs to accomplish such a move.
So the double-top gives us a great place to place a stop, right above.. just in case ILMN does not agree with the analysis. ;) A potential 1st target is the support @ 23.50 but we will gun for the 50ema+sma region. The exact target will be updated as we go.
Chart 1: Daily
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17449)
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Entry:
We are not planning on rushing into this trade but awaiting a specific trigger area above the current price. Shorting the shares of ILMN at an area of resistance located on the following 5-minute chart should hopefully leave us with even less risk to the upside. ;)
Chart 2: 5-minute
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17450)
We will sell short ILMN @ 25.65 - 25.85 and after execution will place a buy stop @ 26.82.
My initial thought on looking at ILMN was that I didn't quite share the view that this was a great short. The 20ema and mid bollinger bands have been offering great support in ILMN's run from $14 or so and they could still.
However, looking at the double top, the ascending support line which now gives resistance, the negative divergance from MACD and the close stop just above the top zone changed my mind, it makes it a worthwhile low risk venture.
I shorted at $25.72. Will watch that support from the 20ema carefully.
Nice justification detail for the short Elite.
Good luck
HOLA!!
IN AT 2.70. >:D
good luck!!!
rafael
Quote from: mexirafa on March 17, 2006, 10:53:54 AM
HOLA!!
IN AT 2.70. >:D
good luck!!!
rafael
That's an odd price. Seeing as the stock is trading around 25.65
Quote from: AussieTrader on March 17, 2006, 10:38:09 AM
My initial thought on looking at ILMN was that I didn't quite share the view that this was a great short. The 20ema and mid bollinger bands have been offering great support in ILMN's run from $14 or so and they could still.
However, looking at the double top, the ascending support line which now gives resistance, the negative divergance from MACD and the close stop just above the top zone changed my mind, it makes it a worthwhile low risk venture.
I shorted at $25.72. Will watch that support from the 20ema carefully.
Nice justification detail for the short Elite.
Good luck
Thank you very much Aussie. Good point about the 20ema.. lets crush it. ;)
Quote from: mexirafa on March 17, 2006, 10:53:54 AM
HOLA!!
IN AT 2.70. >:D
good luck!!!
rafael
Rafeal 8) If youu shorted @ 25.70 you shorted at the same place we got it. If you shorted @ 2.70 :D you would be crying. Goodluck!
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intra-day update
ILMN-ILMN found our trigger zone and couldn't manage to rise above creating a double-top situation on the intra-day chart ;). Now we are positioned safely to profit from this short.. which is starting to make its way downward... 8)
sorry ;D, i missed a number. 25.70 was my entry >:D
rafael
Gil,
Scottrade was on the fritz this AM and missed the 25.7 target.
Thoughts on jumping in here at 25.49 or waiting to see if it tries to get back into target range?
Thanks,
Scott
Quote from: KCScott on March 17, 2006, 12:54:21 PM
Gil,
Scottrade was on the fritz this AM and missed the 25.7 target.
Thoughts on jumping in here at 25.49 or waiting to see if it tries to get back into target range?
Thanks,
Scott
Hey Scott, this zone does make a nice entry.. this tight pattern(black box) can open either way but notice the resistance above. My trigger area was really just being picky. I believe the risk reward is still good here 8)
update ILMN:
What a nice short so far ;)
Charts:
My plan was to short ILMN at an exact price which should serve as a resistance zone, giving us a good chance of being in profit immediately.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17450)
---------------------------------
The stock opened with a dive down but then came back to our trigger range and we sold short @ 25.70. The stock could not reach above the resistance level although it tried at 3 different instances. It finished near the days lows >:D good for us!
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17578)
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Here is a 60-minute chart of ILMN showing the breakdown. Notice the black line providing presure..look out below ;).
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17579)
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The great daily chart with our plan. Risking about a dollar to make 3.. thats a great risk reward ratio.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17580)
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Trading plan remains the same. Good luck to everyone 8) except ILMN longs.
Our ILMN short is moving great.. no bounce yet from the 20ema on the daily >:D
Here is a 5-min chart of the action 8)
Thank you very much for the update.
Regarding the the two green candles that happend after the chart you posted, would taht be considered a bull trap? Thank you for your inut or is it setting up for a short rebound?
thanks,
rafael
Quote from: mexirafa on March 20, 2006, 12:47:05 PM
Thank you very much for the update.
Regarding the the two green candles that happend after the chart you posted, would taht be considered a bull trap? Thank you for your inut or is it setting up for a short rebound?
thanks,
rafael
It looks like
ILMN attempted a rebound but was unable to maintain it >:D
Here is an intraday update showing our important resistance areas now.
;)
That's a bumpy ride there!!
Hello,
ILMN keeps breaking the intrday resistances. Is this a day trade come back to make some quick profit or is this should be more conecern?
thanks
;D
Weak volume on this bounce ;) into the short trigger zone. ILMN is being stubborn but our stop remains very safe. I believe this move has more to do with the market moving up today.. but that market move looks like a bear flag and I am waiting for it to crack >:D
Quote from: eliteG on March 22, 2006, 02:09:07 PM
Weak volume on this bounce ;) into the short trigger zone. ILMN is being stubborn but our stop remains very safe. I believe this move has more to do with the market moving up today.. but that market move looks like a bear flag and I am waiting for it to crack >:D
check out the nasdaq bear flag >:D
Entertaining myself watching some intraday this afternoon and noticed this on the ILMN chart. >:D ;D
This trade is in the balance. On the daily chart the 20 ema provided a nice support and bounce zone as discussed earlier
QuoteThe 20ema and mid bollinger bands have been offering great support in ILMN's run from $14 or so and they could still.
But volume is not great and that is always a good sign for a rally to fizzle. It could go either way from here, it is still a low risk play with that double top in place.
Good Luck
I was kicking myself for not covering yesterday at 24.25 or so as I watched this go up big time. But it is encouraging to see each rally fail and then drop back again. At some point new buyers could lose interest as they see their buys in the mid to high 25's fall into the loss column.
Right now it looks day to day but long term it looks like a new downtrend is forming.
update ILMN:
Still hanging around not wanting to collapse but showing weakness during the day. Volume has remained below average on the past 2 days rejection of lower prices and I take that as a good sign. Again we only risked 4.35% on this trade..thats a tight stop but I either wanted to really right or a little wrong. ;)
Getting dangerously close to our stop! I must say I am very surprised! :-\
(The low volume on this candle however is encouraging, as long as our stop does not get triggered)
Got 1000 at 26.46
Volume terrible for this close to the 52 week high.
This may have a small pop Monday that takes out the 26.82 stop, but it goes definetly lower.
I would hate to see the stop barely get triggered on such low volume... :-[
my position just covered!! Right at the 26.82
volume picking up late.... not a good sign.
If it soesn't start dropping in the next 15 minutes going into close, I'm jumping off.
Quote from: basanlas on March 24, 2006, 03:11:18 PM
my position just covered!! Right at the 26.82
Same price we got.
For the record:
3SOF's ILMN short position got stop covered @ $26.82
Buyers gone - Starting to drop.
Still going to close this - Last thing I'd want traders to see Monday is a 52 week high and a white candle from Friday
4:25PM Illumina beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY08 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (ILMN) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.38 per share, $0.13 better than the First Call consensus of $0.25; revenues rose 86.4% year/year to $112.6 mln vs the $105.3 mln consensus. Co issues mixed guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.33-0.36 vs. $0.26 consensus; sees Q1 revs of $110-115 mln vs. $111.21 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.45-1.60 vs. $1.23 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $500-525 mln vs. $493.82 mln consensus.
a good long term play, on my watchlist....
cheers
Oliver
fyi:
ILMN: Caris & Co Keeps @ Above Average; Cuts Tgt to $42 vs $49; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, October 22, 2008 15:09ET
Issuer: Illumina Incorporated (NasdaqNM: ILMN)
Analyst Firm: Caris & Company
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Above Average Target
Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $42.00 (-14.29% from $49.00)
Analyst Comments: Illumina's (ILMN) strong 3Q08 results represented another record quarter for the Company, driven by strong next generation sequencing instruments and consumables sales as well as robust genotyping demand. They are reducing their price target from $49 to $42, reflecting the lower valuation umbrella.
llumina Announces $120 Million Share Repurchase Program
Friday , October 24, 2008 06:00ET
SAN DIEGO, Oct 24, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a stock repurchase program, authorizing the Company to repurchase in the aggregate up to $120 million of its outstanding common stock.
"Given the underlying strength of Illumina's business and the recent turbulence in the equity markets, we think our current stock price is undervalued. Therefore, we believe the stock buy-back program is in the best interests of our stockholders," said Jay Flatley, Illumina's President and Chief Executive Officer.
Under the program authorized by its Board of Directors, Illumina may repurchase shares in open-market purchases or through privately negotiated transactions as permitted under Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Rule 10b-18. The extent to which Illumina repurchases its shares and the timing of such repurchases will depend upon market conditions and other corporate considerations, as determined by Illumina's management team. The purchases will be funded from existing cash balances.
>:D >:D
AP
Ahead of the Bell: Illumina rises
Wednesday February 4, 9:06 am ET
Illumina shares advance on larger-than-expected 4th quarter profit and 2009 forecasts
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Illumina Inc. jumped in premarket trading Wednesday after the genetic test maker posted fourth-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations, and its 2009 forecast pleased Wall Street.
The San Diego company said it sold record numbers of its Genome Analyzer, BeadExpress Reader and iScan testing systems during the fourth quarter. While medical-equipment makers have been stung by cutbacks in hospital spending, as their customers respond to economic turmoil, Illumina's first-quarter and full-year forecasts were on par with analyst estimates.
The stock climbed $3.51, or 12.5 percent, to $31.50. Illumina shares finished at $27.99 Tuesday.
Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Muken said Illumina posted a "very strong" quarter, with improved profit margins due to "exceptional" sales of consumable items. He maintained a "Buy" rating on the stock, and raised his price target to $41.50 per share from $36.
"Illumina remains the clear leader in genetic analysis tools, with significant growth across all of its major platforms," he said.
Illumina shares last traded at $41.50 in late September.
Cowen and Co. analyst Doug Schenkel said Illumina's instrument sales were better than he expected, and he noted that the company's forecast does not include any potential benefits from an economic stimulus bill, which could aid its results in the second half of the year.
"We believe there continues to be ample room for upside over the course of the year," Schenkel wrote.
AP
Ahead of the Bell: Illumina rises
Wednesday February 4, 9:06 am ET
Illumina shares advance on larger-than-expected 4th quarter profit and 2009 forecasts
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Illumina Inc. jumped in premarket trading Wednesday after the genetic test maker posted fourth-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations, and its 2009 forecast pleased Wall Street.
The San Diego company said it sold record numbers of its Genome Analyzer, BeadExpress Reader and iScan testing systems during the fourth quarter. While medical-equipment makers have been stung by cutbacks in hospital spending, as their customers respond to economic turmoil, Illumina's first-quarter and full-year forecasts were on par with analyst estimates.
The stock climbed $3.51, or 12.5 percent, to $31.50. Illumina shares finished at $27.99 Tuesday.
Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Muken said Illumina posted a "very strong" quarter, with improved profit margins due to "exceptional" sales of consumable items. He maintained a "Buy" rating on the stock, and raised his price target to $41.50 per share from $36.
"Illumina remains the clear leader in genetic analysis tools, with significant growth across all of its major platforms," he said.
Illumina shares last traded at $41.50 in late September.
Cowen and Co. analyst Doug Schenkel said Illumina's instrument sales were better than he expected, and he noted that the company's forecast does not include any potential benefits from an economic stimulus bill, which could aid its results in the second half of the year.
"We believe there continues to be ample room for upside over the course of the year," Schenkel wrote.
>:D
nice chart action....