CyberSource Corp. (CYBS)
CyberSource Corporation provides electronic payment and risk management solutions to organizations that process orders for goods and services over the Internet (...)
Website: http://www.cybersource.com/
This is mainly a technical pick for short term position trading:
Technical Analysis:
Short Term:
CYBS showed up on our «radar» last week upon the breakout of an important technical reference: $9.20. Volume has been above average, and $9.20 was the top of what we can consider to be an ascending triangle; the target of this pattern is $10.62 short term.
$9.20 was retested during Friday's session giving some consolidation to this chart.
At $8.60 there is another support, this time the ascending short term trend line.
Short Term Chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17609;image)
Mid Term:
The short term move was also a mid term breakout, this time $9.35 was the mark, and this gives another dimension on what we can expect from this chart. CYBS has been very technical during the last 2 years, so this kind of breakouts should be considered valid, and solid, especially when the volume agrees.
Mid Term Chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17610;image)
Long Term:
Since 2001, CYBS is riding a Bull, an ascending channel can be spotted here, and the last touch was on the downside...
Long Term Chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17611;image)
Fundamentals:
I'm not a Fundamental Trader, and fundamentals will not matter much on this trade, since this is motivated mainly because of the technical outlook. But CYBS seems to have some good figures when looking to the EPS and Revenues charts:
Earnings Trend:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17612;image)
Revenues Trend:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17613;image)
The Cramer situation:
Cramer from TheStreet.com has included CYBS on a list of stocks where he's bearish:
This article (http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/lightninground/10274309.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA) went out after the market closed on Friday, and it will probably affect CYBS price during Monday Morning.
I'm not sure how much is this going to affect CYBS, so we are not buying at the open as usual.
Trading Plan:
We are going to buy CYBS Monday morning (not at the open), placing a buy order below $9.20, if this order doesn't get filled till 12:00 will buy CYBS at a maximum price of $9.65.
Our stop price for this trade will be $8.50 if printed.
My best regards !
.
Good pick and strategy, infact buying when the stock has retraced to recent break out is a prudent way that ensures some safety of trade.
Hello,
Sorry for the question, I did not get the message clearly. ???
If CYBS does not meet our morning target (below 9.20), does that mean we still buy it at at any price as long as it does not exceed 9.65?
Thanks,
Rafael >:D
Quote from: mexirafa on March 20, 2006, 10:02:13 AM
Hello,
Sorry for the question, I did not get the message clearly. ???
If CYBS does not meet our morning target (below 9.20), does that mean we still buy it at at any price as long as it does not exceed 9.65?
Thanks,
Rafael >:D
Exactly Rafael ;).. man we were close this morning.. still a chance 8)
Hey Gil,
What are you guys going to do with the Pennies on Fire?
Are you going to bring them in here as previosuly described?
If so which and when?
Also, what did you decide as the maximum # of stocks in 3SOF - is it still 15?
Thanks -
Scott in KC
Quote from: KCScott on March 20, 2006, 10:37:12 AM
Hey Gil,
What are you guys going to do with the Pennies on Fire?
Are you going to bring them in here as previosuly described?
If so which and when?
Also, what did you decide as the maximum # of stocks in 3SOF - is it still 15?
Thanks -
Scott in KC
Hey Scott, Pennies on Fire will not have new picks since both 3SOF and S3OV portfolios now have pennies. This means that when the current 3SOP portfolio plays are extinguished so will the portfolio. Nothing else really changed. The 3SOF formula is rock solid. 15 stocks to minimize risk.
Unfortunately our plan to catch the morning lows has failed by a few ticks, and we had to buy CYBS higher.
We believe $9.20 will continue to act as a short term support, and we expect CYBS to have a strong positive reaction at any moment.
Our trading plan will be the same for now: Hold CYBS with a stop @ $8.60
Regards,
Anybony have any thoughts about the crazy up and down movement of CYBS?
Quote from: Loffigus on March 21, 2006, 03:07:01 PM
Anybony have any thoughts about the crazy up and down movement of CYBS?
Hi Loffigus,
I think this fast volatility is a normal behaviour after a breakout and a throwback...
CYBS closed 2 ticks below the $9.20 support level, under low volume. The Nasdaq session didn't help much, with a lot of «blood» going on.
Some news out today:
CyberSource and Visa Canada Bring Advanced eCommerce Fraud Detection System to Canadian Merchants (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060321/sftu051.html?.v=51)
CYBS is on the ex-breakout zone, we expect some support here, even if the Nasdaq continues to slope down for the next few days, we think our trading plan will give sufficient room for CYBS to go back in action.
Holding CYBS with a stop @ $8.60
A good reaction on the support zone today ($9.00/$9.20), followed by a recovery into positive territory and a close on the high of the day. The only thing missing was high volume...
No changes on our trading plan for now, we'll continue to hold CYBS with a stop @ $8.60. Our first target for this trade would be $10.62, but we are not setting any selling order yet.
Best regards,
Hi Guys, I'm sort of new here and as such I am a little late for getting into most of the positions here, although as a newbie I have a suggestion, I cannot alway be by my PC but I always have email with me, it is difficult to determine which positions are new and those that are old, the main thread here does not show the oiginal posting date so the only way to tell how old or new a position is is to count the replies on each thread. Here is a suggestion
1. Record original post date and when 3sof took a position
2. Send out an email alert to all members that 3sof is about to take a position or sell a position in a stock.
On topic here, it seems I may be too late to get into CYBS unless it pulls back below $9.30......I missed the boat
Quote from: gharknes on March 26, 2006, 05:13:20 AM
Hi Guys, I'm sort of new here and as such I am a little late for getting into most of the positions here, although as a newbie I have a suggestion, I cannot alway be by my PC but I always have email with me, it is difficult to determine which positions are new and those that are old, the main thread here does not show the oiginal posting date so the only way to tell how old or new a position is is to count the replies on each thread. Here is a suggestion
1. Record original post date and when 3sof took a position
2. Send out an email alert to all members that 3sof is about to take a position or sell a position in a stock.
On topic here, it seems I may be too late to get into CYBS unless it pulls back below $9.30......I missed the boat
Hi gharknes,
Thanks for your post, let me clarify you for better browsing our service:
- In this topic (right on the first post) you can see the time / date of the post:
Buying CYBS in the morning !« on: 20 March 2006, 00h15m »- You can also check the portfolio pages, in this case the «3Stocks On Fire» portfolio page, on the left menu (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), there you can see all our current holdings, along with our entry prices and dates.
About the email alert, everyday we send a Newsletter to all our subscribers, with instructions on every position we hold, and everytime we are going to buy a new pick. This email is sent always before market action, and they also include stop prices, etc.
Are you receiving this daily email ? (if not, please send me an email to
[email protected])
best regards ;)
3 white candles for CYBS, after the retest on the support level at $9.00/$9.20. Volume is not impressive although the stock is near the highs, and may be ready for another breakout.
We have no reasons to discredit our short term target now: $10.62, the risk is another «boring» retest on the support level, after all this is looking like a trading range.
Our trading plan will now include a selling order:
We'll continue to hold CYBS with a stop @ $8.60, and a Limit SELL order @ $10.62
Best regards,
It almost hit our target at by 3 cents this afternoon. ;)
Quote from: mexirafa on March 27, 2006, 02:48:36 PM
It almost hit our target at by 3 cents this afternoon. ;)
Yep... ;)
And probably will fill our order before close... We dont change the trading plans during the trading session, but if we dont get filled today, we'll be probably setting an higher sell price for tomorrow...
I must confess, this candle and volume increase is changing my sentiment on CYBS for short term...
regards,
I didn't enjoy much CYBS's final hours of trading... Was expecting a close near the highs of the day, probably filling our selling order (we missed it by only 3 ticks). Not a big issue, but a close near the highs would gave an almost sure up-candle tomorrow and a better exit price, now we can face a few more days for consolidation (or maybe not).
Nevertheless, we are keeping our sell order on the same spot, just updating the stop level (taking a new support in consideration):
We'll continue to hold CYBS with a stop @ $9.10, and a Limit SELL order @ $10.62
Best regards,
Sold @10.62!!! Way to go Ramsburg! ;D
Quote from: DannyOhad on March 29, 2006, 01:27:02 PM
Sold @10.62!!! Way to go Ramsburg! ;D
Thanks Danny ;)
I'm not sure if I'm either happy or frustrated after closing this position ;) One thing I'm sure, CYBS will remain on our watch list, and we'll be prepared for another trade on this stock.
As stated on the first analysis, especially the long term chart pattern, we have a huge potential here, for short term CYBS has just touched our target, and we have followed the plan locking this profit.
Regards !
This is a 100% technical play.
After we sold CYBS a few weeks ago, our plan was to keep it on the watch list to buy it again on the support level. The only reason we didn't set up an order yesterday was our general market sentiment.
Today we can already see some positive reaction on the support ($9.20), and we can setup a low risk trading plan to trade CYBS again.
There are several patterns playing on CYBS's chart, but we want to get focus on the Ascending Channel, and the $9.20 support level. Our only risk here, is a pattern downside breakout, otherwise, we expect CYBS to hit new short term highs soon.
We'll buy CYBS today at or near the open, and we'll set a stop @ $8.90
Main Trading Idea:
Expected Buying @ $9.50 + Potential above $11 + risk @ $8.90 = Good Risk/Reward Ratio
Best regards !
Don't forget, the company's earnings report is coming out next Wednesday. Short-term traders usually don't want to hold thru earnings. Are you planning to hold this stock for only a couple days, or did you plan to hold thru earnings?
Leaira
Quote from: Leaira on April 13, 2006, 07:49:12 AM
Don't forget, the company's earnings report is coming out next Wednesday. Short-term traders usually don't want to hold thru earnings. Are you planning to hold this stock for only a couple days, or did you plan to hold thru earnings?
Leaira
Hi Leaira,
Depends on todays and Mondays action on CYBS's price, but I expect this to be a really quick play.
Ramsburg,
Nice pick IMO - this is the type I buy almost every day - pullback to support as then if they break support I am out with a tiny loss. If in doubt about the run back up I sell some on the first move up then even if it goes back to support I locked in gains. On some I buy double just to be able to sell half on the way up.
A gold stock with the same set up is GBN - Gold is down today and this one could even go to the lower trend line at the 50-day EMA but these types have long been a favorite of mine http://tinyurl.com/gvwhk
Nice pick ..
Quote from: metro on April 13, 2006, 11:10:12 AM
Ramsburg,
Nice pick IMO - this is the type I buy almost every day - pullback to support as then if they break support I am out with a tiny loss. If in doubt about the run back up I sell some on the first move up then even if it goes back to support I locked in gains. On some I buy double just to be able to sell half on the way up.
A gold stock with the same set up is GBN - Gold is down today and this one could even go to the lower trend line at the 50-day EMA but these types have long been a favorite of mine http://tinyurl.com/gvwhk
Nice pick ..
Hi Metro,
Thanks for your feedback. I usually trade breakouts, but I also like this kind of setups, because we don't need to give much room to it, I mean, the stop is tight, and usually it's an easy play.
GBN.... hum... looks nice, Thanks, I will keep it on my watch list of potential 3SOF plays ;)
regards !
A famous stock market quote:
«A good trade is profitable right from the start»
Well... this is not always true... but its really cool when it happens ;)
There was a lot of price activity during Thursday morning, although the stock was less active during the afternoon and didn't close near the highs of the session. We bought CYBS right on the support, so all we have to do now, is to ride the Channel.
Note: It is not uncommon to watch new re-tests on the channel's base (ascending support).
We are going to be a bit tight on this trade, so we'll move the stop higher for now, and soon as we get the necessary room, higher again:
Hold CYBS with a stop @ $9.35 and a limit sell order @ $10.97
Best regards !
Difficult to move CYBS higher today with such a pessimist market... Even so, CYBS traded above Thursday's high, and closed positive above $10.
Earnings Call will be Wednesday after the bell, we are still evaluating if we'll hold it thru earnings...
For now, we are trying to trade the channel, so we'll maintain the aggressive trading plan, updating the stop one more time, this time to our entry price reducing our risk on this trade to zero:
Hold CYBS with a stop @ $9.55 and a limit sell order @ $10.97
Best regards !
It's always difficult to make this kind of decision, but after a meeting with eliteG I've decided to maintain our trading plan active on CYBS thru earnings.
By that I mean, that if we don't fill our sell order during the session, we'll hold CYBS thru earnings (if it's a positive call, we'll then change our sell price higher).
Although we must advise our subscribers the risk we are willing to take, which is basically to lose our current (fast) profit on this trade. (Anyone not comfortable with that risk, should exit this position before the close tomorrow)
Earnings Conference will be streamed live here at 16:30:
Cybersource Corporation Earnings Conference Call (http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/0/66970.html)
So the plan is the same:
Hold CYBS with a stop @ $9.55 and a limit sell order @ $10.97
Best regards,
Another great session for CYBS, almost filling our sell price during the session (and trading above it during after hours trading).
Earnings were not a surprise:
CyberSource beats by $0.02; issues mixed Q2 & FY06 guidance (http://finance.yahoo.com/mp#cybs)
The reason we had hold CYBS thru earnings was a very positive expectation on the numbers, since this is a kind of neutral report, and CYBS is trading near our target we'll sell it today locking down a nice fast profit.
We expect the market to go up today, so we'll take that chance to sell CYBS higher than expected.
The trading plan:
Sell CYBS during the morning.
Best regards,