3SOF

Stock Picking Contest (5th Edition - From 24/Apr/2006 to 29/May/2006)

To Submit your Stock Pick, reply to this Topic following the Standard Layout:

1)   Stock Pick
(Ticker & Name of the Company)

2)   Reason behind this pick
(a Text with at least 50 words, featuring the reasons of your stock pick)

3)   Stock Chart
(Click in additional options, browse for your chart file GIF/JPG/PNG and add it to your post, if you don't have a Charting software, we suggest you copy a chart from www.stockcharts.com)

Before you post your Pick: Read the Contest Rules --> HERE (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/1000stockpickingcontest.php)
(No penny stocks allowed among other restrictions)

Important: Do not use this thread to another purpose rather than submitting your stock pick. For organizational purposes, any reply that is not a stock pick will be deleted.

My pick is again same:
AZK

Company Summary: Aurizon Mines, Ltd. operates as a gold mining company with operations, development, and exploration activities in the gold producing Abitibi region of north-western Quebec. It owns a 100% interest in the Casa Berardi property located approximately 95 kilometer north of the town La Sarre in the province of Quebec. The company was incorporated as 343318 B.C., Ltd. in April 1988 and changed its name to Aurizon Mines, Ltd. in August 1988. Aurizon Mines is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
The company is involved in gold mining and has an upcoming mine in next quarter which will provide it lot of gold with profitable streak.
Last news:
"Aurizon management are very optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise," said Ian Walton, Aurizon's CFO. "However, it is prudent for us to protect any potential downside in the price of gold from unforeseen market forces. The program that we have implemented provides protection that future operating cash flows are available to service the project debt, should gold prices decline, without giving away the Company's participation in the upside potential for gold and the Project."
Casa Berardi continues to progress on budget, on schedule and to design specification. The production shaft at the West Mine is currently at a depth of 500 metres and the ramp has reached the 690 metre level. On surface, the headframe, hoist room and associated infrastructures are complete, while major components of the mill refurbishing and modifications are in progress. More than 300 people are currently active on site. The project is currently expected to produce 1,092,000 ounces from 4.8 million tonnes of ore over the initial 6.2 year operating plan, based on current mineral reserves. Additional resources comprise 2.7 million tonnes of indicated resources with an average grade of 5.1 grams of gold per tonne and 5.6 million tonnes of inferred resources averaging 6.5 grams of gold per tonne. Drilling activities are on-going with three underground drill rigs and four surface drill rigs currently in operation.
Commercial production at Casa Berardi is expected to commence in the fourth quarter of this year at an average rate of 175,000 ounces of gold per annum. At a gold price of US$550 per ounce, and an exchange rate of 1.15, the project would have an estimated total cash cost of US$240 per ounce, an internal rate of return of 47% and an estimated payback of approximately 2 years.

Recent news today was:

Aurizon Reports High Grade Mineralization in Zones 118-120 at Casa Berardi
Got featured in an article in Businessweek:
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2006/pi20060419_788915.htm

GNBT
GENEREX BIOTECHNOLOGY CORPORATION

I am speculating on 2 main products that Generex offers. They have created an inhaler-like medication for diabetes called Ora-lyn. Their patented delivery system called RapidMist can also be used for other medications to deliver drugs through the buccol linings of the mouth. Generex also has a synthetic protein vaccine which it can mass produce incase of a bird flu outbreak. Generex has been as high as 5$ a share recently and I believe it has hit its bottom now at approximately $2.50
The stock has great potential short term and long term.

I added GV to both the 3StocksOnFire and 3StocksOnValue portfolio.  These portfolio's and this trade plan is an example of what is available in the premium section.  Our members bought in on 4/20.  :)

--------------------------
Growth, Value, Power Chart: GV
« on: April 19, 2006, 11:45:09 PM »

GV(amex) - Goldfield Corp.

Sector:    Industrial Goods
Industry:    Heavy Construction
Mkt Cap:       35.34M
Float:            23.53M

Profile:  The Goldfield Corporation provides electrical construction and maintenance services in the energy infrastructure industry in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Its principal lines of business include electrical construction and real estate development. It constructs transmission lines, distribution systems and substations, and other electrical installation services for utility systems, and industrial and specialty projects. The company also installs fiber optic cable for fiber optic cable manufacturers, telecommunication companies, and electric utilities. It also engages in the development of residential condominium projects on the east coast of Central Florida. The company was incorporated in 1906 and is based in Melbourne, Florida.

website: http://www.goldfieldcorp.com/

News and Fundamentals

Goldfield just released amazing results on for its 4th quarter and full year 2005:
Links:
Goldfield Swings to 4Q Profit on Sales  (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060327/earns_goldfield.html?.v=1)
Goldfield Records Strong Results for 2005  (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060327/nym042.html?.v=39)

----------------
MELBOURNE, Fla., March 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Goldfield Corporation (Amex: GV - News), a leading provider of electrical construction services in the southeastern United States and a developer of condominiums, today announced strong results for the year ended December 31, 2005:

    - Revenue increased 20.4% to $39.3 million from $32.7 million in 2004.
    - Operating income increased to $4.0 million from a $0.5 million loss in
      2004.
    - Net income rose to $2.3 million ($.09 per share) from a $0.4 million
      loss ($.01 loss per share) in 2004.

Results for the fourth quarter of 2005 mirrored the markedly improved yearly results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2005 (compared to like period in 2004):

    - Revenue increased 85% to $10.4 million from $5.6 million.
    - Net income reached $0.9 million ($.03 per share) from a $0.7 million
      loss ($.03 loss per share).
-------------

Crazy! GV has more revenue this year than mkt cap and is growing strong.  This makes GV an amazing value!!  Annualizing the quarter eps gives GV a forward PE of 11.5 not accounting for any growth.  There is even more!  Growth is backed up by a backlog of over 40million!

Looking ahead to 2006, Mr. Sottile commented, "We start 2006 on a very solid footing. At January 31, our electrical construction backlog had increased over four-fold to $24 million from $5.8 million at the same point in 2005 and our real estate segment's backlog had almost doubled to approximately $16.9 million from $8.4 million at the same point last year. The first phase of our new Pineapple House project is now under construction, with binding sales contracts for approximately two-thirds of the units. We expect to start recognizing revenue from this project during the first quarter of this year."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060327/nym042.html?.v=39

Technicals

A stock with this kind of fundamentals.. and superb technicals.  ;)  Notice on the Long-term chart  what a solid company we are dealing with.  How can we tell this from the chart?  Notice how there is a consistent rise and support with increasing volume on the 10yr chart.  Only really great management can pull that off.  Investors who are holding this stock must be in love.  :-* (they bought in 1999 @ .20 and the stock is 1.38  >:D)  These are investors who will not sell their position.

Long
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19962)

Medium
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19963)

Short
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19964)


Trade Plan

We are buying this stock for both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.  Therefore, we will trade the positions in a different manner.  The 3SOF method will be a much stricter technical method.  The 3SOV method will try to maintain a position until true value is attained through looser stops.

We have a breakout on GV and it will most likely attack the 52-week high soon.  We will place our initial stop around 15-20% away and will look to make a great return.  This stock is set to explode as soon as the word gets out.. right now it is definately a hidden wonder.

We will buy GV @ limit 1.50 on 4/20

Pick: TGC

Logic:Im picking TGC for both fundamental and Technical reasons. Recently TGC broke out of a cup and handle formation jumping around 60% on the breakout and is now in a consolidation of that initial breakout which has formed a symmetrical triangle in which i am anticipating an upside breakout of.

Fundamently the stock is bullish, Recently reported record earnings and became profitable for the year 05.

For 2005, the Company reported a net income to holders of common
stock of $1,088,028 or $0.02 per share in 2005 compared to a net loss
of $1,994,025 ($0.05 per share) in 2004 and to a net loss of
$3,451,580 ($0.29 per share) in 2003.

I like this company and the Technical setup making it a decent pick for the contest. Good luck to all contestents.  8)

Chart:

My pick: OTD

Reason: This is a very volatile stock that has come off recent highs. It very well could head lower here, but this is a hot sector (biofuels) and any news could send it skyrocketing. This is the kind of pick that could win the contest if it takes off. I could end up in last or first place. We shall see.

Chart:

My pick:

Profile:
YM BioSciences, Inc., a development stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research and development of products primarily for the treatment of cancer. Its product candidates in the clinical stage of development include Tesmilifene, Nimotuzumab, AeroLEF, Norelin, and Radiotheracim. Tesmilifene, which is in phase III clinical trial, is a small molecule chemopotentiator for the treatment of metastatic and recurrent breast cancer. Nimotuzumab, which is in phase II clinical trial, is an antiepidermal growth factor humanized monoclonal antibody for the treatment of epithelial cancers. AeroLEF, which is in phase II clinical trials, is a proprietary formulation of both free and liposome-encapsulated fentanyl administered by pulmonary inhalation, is being developed for the treatment of severe and moderate acute pain and cancer pain. Norelin is a phase II clinical trial product for the treatment of sex-hormone dependent cancers. Radiotheracim is a radiolabelled humanized monoclonal antibody, targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor, and is being developed for the treatment of brain cancers. The company also has a portfolio of preclinical compounds shown to act as chemopotentiators while protecting normal cells. YM BioSciences has a collaborative agreement with Sanofi-Aventis to investigate the effect of combining tesmilifene and docetaxel for the treatment of women with rapidly progressing metastatic breast cancer.

Company presentation:
http://www.ymbiosciences.com/downloads/corporate_presentation.pdf

Product List:
http://www.ymbiosciences.com/main.cfm?docID=16
Latest news:
YM BioSciences is set to acquire Eximias Pharmaceutical Corporation, a privately-held firm focused on treatments of cancer and cancer-related disorders, in a cash and stock deal worth more that $30 million. The acquisition is designed to amplify YM's critical mass, specifically in its management team and cash resources. It will allow YM to expand capabilities for the development and commercialization of the products currently in clinical development and to establish a presence in the US, particularly within the oncology and financial communities. There is no intention to further develop the products in the Eximias portfolio at this time.
YM will purchase Eximias for a number of common shares equivalent to the cash resources of Eximias at closing, or approximately 4.5 million shares at the minimum, as well as a premium of approximately 450,000 shares in recognition of the value of the organization.
The definitive agreement has been approved by the boards of directors of both companies and by the stockholders of Eximias. Approval by YM shareholders is not required.
The transaction is expected to close in early May, subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions, at which time Eximias will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of YM operating as YM BioSciences USA, and will serve as YM's base of operations in the US.

Analysts:
YMI: AG Edwards Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $15; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , April 04, 2006 08:25 ET
Issuer: YM Biosciences, Inc. (AMEX: YMI)
Analyst Firm:  A.G. Edwards Inc.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $15.00
Analyst Comments: The firm sees YMI as having high quality "shots-on-goal" with three of its drugs.
&
YMI: RBC Capital Starts @ Outperform
Monday , April 17, 2006 09:41 ET
Issuer: YM Biosciences, Inc. (AMEX: YMI)
Analyst Firm:  RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Outperform

Chart:

Stock pick: Sonic Foundry (SOFO)

Reason: This is purely a technical play.  The stock had a volume spike about a month ago, and has been trading with above-average volume ever since.  All the key indicators are pointing up as well (MACD, DMI, Chakin Money Flow, etc).  The stock price has been trending upward nicely between the upper Bollinger Band and the 13-day exponential moving average. 

1) SGTL (SigmaTel Inc.)

2) Semi-conductor Ind.
I know I'm bottom feeding here but what the heck. The company is cheap with a p/e of 9.45. Last earnings beat analyst estimates but current earnings have been forecast lower. Earnings come out on tuesday and volume yesterday was almost 4x the norm. They just got above the 13 ema yesterday as well. Today and monday will be interesting because they are 6 cents away from a dollar gap up.

3)

1.  WEL - Boots & Coots International Well Control Inc.

Boots & Coots International Well Control, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide oilfield services worldwide. It provides various integrated oilfield services for the prevention, emergency response, and restoration of blowouts and well fires. The company operates through two segments: Prevention and Response.

2. This a technical descision.  Since january WEL has been recovering with price going up with great volume forming an ascending triangle and trading in its highest level in 3 years.  The weekly MACD looks positive and in a daily basis the stock has been in consolidation for 4 days forming a little pennant with resistance in 2.50.  The earnings are due on may 10. So I'm giving a boost of confidence to this one. ;)

3. Chart

AxonyX Inc (AXYX)

Axonyx, Inc. is a U.S. biotechnology company that discovers, develops, and acquires proprietary pharmaceutical compounds and new technologies. The Company's compounds and technologies are used to treat cognitive disorders, including Alzheimer's Disease. The stock has been creating a buzz with its recent conference presentations. Also released a pr reporting data suggesting that the company's Phenserine product helps stabilize brain volume, increase neuron activity, and ups brain glucose metabolism.

Swir  Sierra Wireless Inc (NASDAQ NM)   

This well know CO have been trading in a range betwen [7.5 - 15] for a year and a half.
Today was a STAR on earning reports. with huge vol (15.5 M) was up + 30%

I will look for a gain of 25 - 50 % in a month with this one

1) CPST - Capstone Turbine Corp.

2) Capstone Turbine Corporation develops, manufactures, markets and services microturbine technology solutions for use in stationary distributed power generation applications, such as cogeneration (combined heat and power and combined cooling heat and power), resource recovery, power reliability and remote power.

With energy prices on the rise hitting record levels the need for alternative energy has become unavoidable worldwide. I believe Capstone is just at the early stages of a very lucrative business, the demand for its products is starting to reflect on its revenue increase.

A study report posted 6 years ago states that the demand for microturbines would grow substantially with sales ranging from $2.4 to $8 billion in this decade. That only makes me believe that sales are about to accelerate.

http://www.american.edu/carmel/rd4222a/energy4.html

This great article that appeared on the Distributed Energy's magazine back in December, 2004, says:  "Microturbines—gas- or liquid-fuel-fired turbine-generator units with an electrical output between 30 and 500 kilowatts—are being used increasingly for 24/7 onsite power generation. And many areas of the world will very likely see a major increase in microturbine-based onsite power generation over the next five to 10 years."

http://www.distributedenergy.com/de_0411_microturbines.html


The company should also benefit from the energy bill signed by President Bush 8 months ago.

http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=cpst&script=410&layout=7&item_id=740622


Back in March 20, 2006, Capstone issued a press release announcing that its 30- and 65-kilowatt renewable energy systems were certified by Underwriters Laboratories. CEO John R. Tucker added: "this certification, President Bush's new initiative for grid-interconnected renewable resources and our newly released CR65 biogas-fueled energy system will be yet another major step for us and for the nation's future of clean, renewable energy".

Even though CPST looks to me more like a long time investment than a short term trade, I expect the stock to get a quick appreciation from the momentum currently seen across the sector.

I also like the fact that insiders keep buying the stock:

http://www.secform4.com/insider/showhistory.php?cik=cpst

3) Technically CPST is in a critical situation. The stock just retreated to $4.03 after being unable to break through $4.50 (resistance level), I see this as a good buying opportunity. The most immediate support level is set at $3.86 which could be tested this week. Overall the indicators remain bullish; however, as I said this will be a crucial week that should give us an idea of where the stock is heading, of course I am 100% bullish on CPST.

I'll Change my Pick from QTWW to FUEL ;)

1) Streicher Mobile Fueling Inc. (FUEL)


2) Reason behind this pick: Fundamental & Technical FUEL has increased their revenue year over year ;)  http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060214/20060214006540.html?.v=1

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.

FUEL is forming a little Symmetrical Triangle as you can see on the first chart, we will find out on monday or tuesday if this thing will break on the upside.

According to Yahoo:
Market Cap is just 39.74M
Shares out: 9.81M
Float: 8.42M

Recommendation: Stock is a BUY

"Gimme me FUEL, Gimme Fire, Gimme that which I desire, Ooh!" :D ;D :D ;D


3) Charts:

SATC : SatCon Technology Corp (NASDAQ NM)

SatCon Technology Corporation. The Group's principal activities are to develop enabling technologies for the emerging digital power marketplace that include UPS systems, distributed power generation and power quality markets. The Group operates through three segments: Applied Technology, Power Systems and Electronics. The products include power conversion systems, power electronics systems, digital control software, high performance motors and vibration test systems, hybrid microcircuits, RF components, thin film substrates and amplifiers. The Group manufactures power and energy management products that will convert, store and manage electricity for the businesses and consumers that require high-quality, uninterruptible power supply.

Its making a nice consolidation here to build a base and move much higher. still extremely undervalued with alternative energy like solar and wind and fuel cell technologies becoming more and more important.

With the testing and approval of five PowerGate AE-PV Series utility-grade PV inverter designs by the California Energy Commission, SatCon's range of inverters for commercial-scale photovoltaic projects has met the criteria of the State's incentive programs.

1)  HCSG  ----  Healthcare Services Group Inc.

Healthcare Services Group, Inc. provides housekeeping, laundry, linen, facility maintenance, and food services to nursing homes, retirement complexes, rehabilitation centers, and hospitals in the United States and Canada

2)  I'm picking this because of purely technical reasons.  HCSG has a very nice ascending triangle pattern that had been forming since early January 05.  It recently broke out of the triangle last week which is when I jumped in.  Also, it has been in a SOLID uptrend since 2000.  It looks as though fundamentally the company is doing great and that earnings are being met or exceeded.  Don't really have time to look into the company fundamentally.

 

Contest Pick
1.) My Stock Pick:
     AVII...... AVI BIOPHARMA INC

2.) Reason behind the pick:
     Things looking better, AVII seems to be at bottom for now.
     I think she is headed back up, all it needs is a little positive medical news
     The chart and indicators look to be stabilizing and looking like its ready to move up.
     On my thread of AVII located on The Stock Picking Board, AVII......This could be a rocket
     based on speculation alone ! I still have that thought about this stock. Headed Higher!!
     
Volume: 3,141,126
Avg Vol (3m): 2,750,780

Technicals
Close Above the 50-day EMA
Close Above the 13-day EMA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
0.65%above 13-day EMA
0.38%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 77 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $354.97 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 05/08/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Outperform

3.) The awesome Stock Chart.

My Pick: Transmeta(TMTA)
Reasons behind the pick: I like their new bussiness model where they make $'s on licensing their technology, which also makes sense since its almost impossible to go head on with intc and amd in manufacturing the chips. There recent alliance with toshiba, sony and msft is also a plus.
Expecting earnings rally for next two weeks and they may also release more information with their microsoft alliance with better guidance.

Company Information
Transmeta Corporation. The Group's principal activities are to develop and distribute software-based microprocessors and additional hardware and software technologies for Mobile Internet Computers. These products are portable computing and communication devices that are compatible with PC software. The products also deliver the performance required to run standard PC and Internet applications and also offer long battery life. Crusoe microprocessors have been developed for lightweight notebook computers and wireless Internet access devices and other Internet appliances. The Crusoe microprocessors are suitable for a broad set of existing and emerging end markets where energy efficiency and x86 software compatibility are desirable. The Group's customers include Sharp, Fujitsu, Hewlett-Packard and Uniquest.

My Pick: VPHM

Reason for pick:  VPHM is arguably one of the most familiar stocks on 3SOF.  It has made many people some green and has been a value favorite of Michael's for some time.  It's currently low PPS was caused by the threat of a generic version of Vancocin coming onto the market and seriously eating in to the margins of this money maker for VPHM.  Even if a generic Vancocin is approved, it is still at least a few years away.  In the meantime, VPHM will continue to show increasing sales of Vancocin and increasing company earnings because of this.  I feel that the threat of the generics is overblown and it is only a matter of time before the PPS again reflects the earning potential of Vancocin, not to mention the other drugs in VPHM's pipeline.  Will the market recognize this within a month?  If so, the stock will be a rocket again.  ;D

OUTD : Outdoor Channel Holdings Inc

Stock has had two upgardes this month and I see more people staying home watching more TV with the price of gas going up more and more. They have had one million more subscribers since Dec. for their channel and recent price action of stock shows it's on it's way to a new uptrend

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Outdoor Channel Holdings Inc., owner of a hunting and fishing cable television channel, surged Friday on news of strong subscriber-base growth in the first quarter.
The Temecula, Calif., company's stock rose $1.37, or 12.8 percent, to $12.07 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $9.10 to $17.49.
Outdoor Channel said its subscriber base has increased by 1 million since December, according to Nielsen Media Research estimates. The company says its channel is reaching 26.7 million homes.
Bear Stearns analyst Jennifer L. Childe gave Outdoor Channel an "Outperform" investment rating.
• Outdoor Channel upgraded by AG Edwards
Briefing.com (Fri 8:53am) 

Goodluck to all  :)

My pick=(CUP) 8) Peru Copper Inc. closed @3.12 on friday!

Reasons: 27 million in cash, virtually no debt. Both copper and gold are extremly hot right now. Just broke out of its descending channel. Some unverified rumors of PCU perhaps buying them out! Besides that I don't know, chart looks good to me!

"Peru Copper, Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineable copper deposits in Peru. The company, through its subsidiary, Minera Peru Copper Syndicate S.A., holds an option to acquire certain mining concessions in the Toromocho project located in the Morococha mining district in central Peru. Peru Copper, Inc. was founded by J. David Lowell, Catherine E. McLeod Seltzer, David E. De Witt, Luis J. Baertl, and Geoffrey Loudon in 2003 and is based in Vancouver, Canada".

My pick is TGC

Tengasco, Inc. engages in the exploration, production, and transportation of oil and natural gas in Tennessee and Kansas. It also leases producing and nonproducing properties for exploration and development.
Tengasco Announced Record Fourth Quarter 2005 and Record Year-End 2005 Results on Mon, Mar 20 since then has been on a march up the hill. With the price of oil hitting record levels (again) and natural gas coming off it lows in anticipation of a hot summer. The climb should continue. At the moment the price is consolidating again with volume support and I am suspecting a continuation of the rise in share price. 
Also TGC seems to be forming a pendant, that being said pendants usually break in the direction of the trend in this case up. TGC also formed pendants at 0.72, 0.85 marks and now again at 1.32
A close below the 13 EMA at 1.21, or further, below trendline support at 1.18 would indicate a time to exit. I would also watch the oil and natural gas charts, for indications of the future price of TGC.

My pick CBMX - CombiMatrix  Corp.

Recent news concerning CombiMatrix group's subsidiary CombiMatrix Molecular Diagnostics (CMDX) shipping its first diagnostic microarray product for the diagnosis, mostly in children, who exhibit genetic developmental disorders and are currently undiagnosed due to the lack of technology for such diagnosis. This inability to diagnose the underlying cause of the disorder makes it difficult to provide appropriate medication or useful genetic counseling. The array, which can be used for pre- and post-natal analysis, will provide much greater genetic information for diagnosing and treating these disorders. The collaboration with Novavax on other vaccine technologies will I believe have a positive impact on CBMX's short term price performance. The early detection of mutated strains of the flu virus will be critical to the containment of the virus in its early stages. Positive news should set the stage for a nice gain. ;D

Interesting article on DNA Micro arrays:

http://tinyurl.com/p5p83



Acacia Research Corporation - CombiMatrix engages in the development of technologies and products in the areas of drug development, genetic analysis, nanotechnology research, defense, and homeland security markets. Its platform technologies produce customizable arrays, which are semiconductor-based tools for use in identifying and determining the roles of genes, gene mutations, and proteins.

Novavax - NVAX
I Don't really expect to win this contest with this pick, but as in contest 2 where I picked SMSI at 5.50 and it is now 11.50, I will make a fundamental case and hope that a significant event will occur during the contest period.
NVAX is not just a bird flu stock! It is a new technology related to the production of vaccines. So my first fundamental reason for my interest in this stock is the fact that they just received approval and validation of their production facility from the FDA. 2nd, They have over 100million in cash to carry out their business plan. 3rd, they have 4 FDA approved products on the street. 4, they have 7 other products in phase 1,11,111 trials. NVAX is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in research, development,and commercialization of products for women's health, infectious diseases, and cancer. This company has just been taken to the woodshed by one analyst who's long term commentary on this company could lead one to believe he has an agenda. Regardless the stock is down from the 8 dollar level and certainly could go lower based on TA. I will hope to get a lower open on Monday and buy this stock under 5.30 knowing that a test of 4.80 is likely. However, this company presents at a UBS conference on 4/24 and will have their annual meeting during this contest period. Maybe I'll get some confirmation related to real fundamentals and see this stock turn and run. The chart is not my friend but with my real money I have a plan. Make sure you do before any of you buy this one.

VRSO

I think the charts look quite bullish right now, and I will consider buying it on Monday. The price is very low at this point. Oct. last year there was a stock-split 5:1, so the pre-split price now is $ 0,24, and that's to low in my opinion !
There will be a conference call on Thursday, May 4, 2006 at 5:00 p.m. and if earnings are good, we might have a winner. 

Verso Technologies, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide communications technology and solutions for communications service providers and enterprises seeking to implement application-based telephony services, Internet usage management tools, and outsourced customer support services. The company operates in two segments, Packet-based Technologies Group and Advanced Applications Services Group.

The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

My pick for this months contest is Insmed (INSM):

Insmed was really on fire in December and January as positive news came out about their key drug IPLEX, used to treat children with Growth Hormone Insensitivity, which I am sure most 3SOFers know all about.  Fulle coverage can be read here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4489.msg57706#msg57706

Since peaking at 3.35 in January, it has been falling back in a descending channel, recently reaching a low of 1.65, just over a 50% drop :P

HOWEVER, I think that things are about to change for INSM.  As was expressed in their last conference call, everything is in place for the commercialization of IPLEX, which is set to happen this quarter, and probably within the next month.  Several key conferences, including the PAS Annual meeting are coming up, at which Insmed will be presenting recent results on IPLEX, and may provide an opportunity to announce commercial production.  They have already recieved approval and orpan status, so are really on the verge of starting to make some money!!! IPLEX has huge long term potential, but I see then next few weeks as turnaround time.

Technically, we have the bearish channel, which the stock has been recently traversing, but it made a nice little rally off the low of 1.65, up to 2.00, before selling off again.  If INSM can break above 2.00, then I think the reversal will be in.  The 13ema has been providing a nice little guide rope for INSM in the last 6 months, for the most part finding support there on the ascention and resistance as it fell back (bar a couple of rallying spikes), so I would like to see the 1ema get taken out next week.  It currently stands at 1.83, which is where INSMs AH price is as well. 

Target-wise, the fibs for the last rally give us some nice targets, with the 61.8% retrace at 2.01, right where INSM needs to get over to put its reversal in, 50% at 2.26, which corresponds to the top of the bearish channel, and finally the 38.2% at 2.52, which is the top of the gap when INSM crashed after earnings.  A move from where it closed on Friday at 1.80 to the top of this gap would be a 40% move, and could happen quite quickly.  Beyond that, well, lets just see.

Anyway, in line with this, I will be buying INSM back on Monday to put my stock pick into practice ;D

My pick is ICO -  International Coal Group (NYSE)

I like tha VU boyyom pattern, and i think the break oh the last maximum to cast the price to an important target. International Coal Group, Inc.  will release its first quarter results for 2006 after the market closes on Thursday, April 27, 2006
In addition announced that its Vindex Energy Corporation subsidiary has significantly expanded its Maryland production by acquiring the Allegany County surface mining operations of Barton Mining Company. In a transaction concluded earlier today, the associated assets of Barton Mining Company and George's Creek Land Company were purchased by the ICG subsidiary for an undisclosed price.
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This surface mining complex, located near Frostburg, Maryland, is expected to produce about 500,000 tons annually from a permitted reserve base of over 3.5 million tons. Although mining activities have been idle in recent weeks, coal production is projected to resume within the next 7-10 days

look the chart

1) CVM  --  CEL-SCI Corp.

2) CEL-SCI Corporation engages in the research and development of drugs and vaccines used in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. The company owns a pre-clinical technology called ligand epitope antigen presentation system (L.E.A.P.S) that designs and synthesizes proprietary peptide immunogens. Its products include Multikine, an immunotherapeutic agent that is used for the treatment of cancer and CEL-1000 peptide, a product developed through its L.E.A.P.S, which provides protection in animals against malaria, herpes, and cancer. The company markets its products to cancer centers, physicians, and clinics involved in immunotherapy.

Recent headlines:
• Cel-Sci, Navy Extend Drug Study AP. (Thu, Apr 20) 
• CEL-SCI Extends Agreement With U.S. Navy for CEL-1000 Drug. PR Newswire(Thu, Apr 20) 
• Cel-Sci Up on Vaccine Booster Tests .AP (Wed, Apr 19) 
• CEL-1000 Peptide Shows Adjuvant Activity with Malaria Vaccines .PR Newswire (Wed, Apr 19) 
• Cel-Sci flies on Avian flu vaccine .bizjournals.com (Tue, Apr 4) 
• Cel-Sci Up on Bird Flu Claim, Patent .AP (Tue, Apr 4) 
• CEL-SCI Files Patent for Prevention/Treatment of Bird (Avian) Flu .PR Newswire (Tue, Apr 4) 
• CEL-SCI Corporation Releases Bird (Avian) Flu Letter to Shareholders .PR Newswire (Mon, Apr 3) 

* Outstanding Shares : 74.2 mil
* Float : 6.7 mil
* Market Value : $56.41
* Debt : $0.00
* Cash on hand : $1.89 mil

3) Technically it's forming a symmetrical triangle which hopefully will break to the upside soon.

;)
Good luck all!

1)   Stock Pick
IIP - Internap Network Services Corp.
Profile: Internap Network Services Corporation offers products and services that provide Internet connectivity solutions to business customers who require network availability for business applications, such as e-commerce, video and audio streaming, voice over Internet protocol, virtual private networks, and supply chain management. Its products and services are delivered by IP access services, such as colocation and data center services, content distribution networks, and managed security services, as well as pre and post installation services and consulting.

2)   Reason behind this pick
Technical: IIP has a nice bullish pattern to it.
- It bounced off of the 61.8 fib retracement and looks like it will shoot up from there, with support at 1.00.
- RSI is bouncing off of 50, Fast Sto and MACD are all turning bullish.
- Daily Average volume keeps going up.

Financial: Revenues do not make huge jumps up every year, but consistenly go up (+4-6%). However, net loss are getting closer to a net profit every year:
2005: ($4,964) +263%
2004: ($18,062) +274%
2002: ($67,614)
Current Ratio: 2.90
Quick Ratio: 1.11
Long-term debt is high at $7m, but down 38% from the year before.
Cash is negative Q1 through Q3 2005, but positive for Q4= negative $9m for 2005.

3)   Chart

1) My pick is CERS

2) Since this is just a contest, I'm going a little risky and am going to try to find the bottom. CERS is down about 50% from just Feb., It recently has hit the 7.00-7.10 support line. Volume has been high the last month or 2 of the fall. Two new analysts started coverage in March, one giving a buy and another, a strong buy. Lastly, Earnings are released on May 2nd. Who knows, a good earnings report may fill in some of the gap between 7 and 14. Also, it's oversold and had a bullish MACD crossover.

My pick is NMSS.... ;D
Background:

Recent News release:
Quarterly earnings amounted to $1.7 million, or 3 cents per share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $2.1 million, or 4 cents per share. Excluding $122,000 in amortization charges and $786,000 in stock-based compensation costs, earnings were $2.6 million, or 5 cents per share.
Revenue increased to $30.7 million from $22.6 million in the prior-year quarter.
The company said it expects full-year revenue of $123 million to $128 million. Excluding stock compensation and amortization, NMS sees per-share profit of 12 cents to 16 cents in the quarter. Wall Street is looking for 2006 earnings per share of 13 cents on $122.8 million in revenue.


Composite Indicator 
   Trend Spotter TM Buy 
 
Short Term Indicators 
   7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy 
   10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy 
   20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 
   20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator  Hold 
   20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy 
 
Short Term Indicators Average:   80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 514700
 
Medium Term Indicators 
   40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 
   50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 
   20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 
   50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy 
 
Medium Term Indicators Average:   100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 345188
 
Long Term Indicators 
   60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 
   100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 
   50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 
 
Long Term Indicators Average:   100% - Buy

thamks
B

My Pic is CDIC - CardioDynamics International Corp.

Summary
CardioDynamics, the ICG Company, is the innovator and leader of breakthrough medical technology called Impedance Cardiography. The company's BioZ Systems are being used by leading physicians around the world to help battle the number one killer of men and women -- cardiovascular disease. Partners include GE Healthcare and Philips Medical Systems.  

The CEO Michael K. Perry recently stated....
"Despite the weaker than expected first quarter, we are optimistic about our future. We are encouraged by the opening of Medicare's reconsideration process for hypertension and the planned $4 million investment to provide additional cash resources to grow our business. We were very pleased to have the recent publications of two important clinical trials, our 11-center CONTROL study and Cleveland Clinic's ED-IMPACT study. The CONTROL trial demonstrated that BioZ-directed therapy was more than two times better than standard care for achievement of blood pressure control. The ED-IMPACT trial showed that there was a 13% diagnosis change and 39% treatment change in shortness of breath patients when physicians used BioZ data after initial assessment. We also anticipate the June publication of PREDICT, a 21-center ICG prognostic heart failure study, which identified ICG as the most powerful predictor of short-term heart failure hospitalization or death. These three studies represent the strongest scientific evidence in the Company's history which we believe should further drive ICG's clinical importance, visibility, market adoption, and ultimately a broadened national Medicare policy."

April 18, 2006: Various insiders including the CEO of CardioDynamics International Corporation (CDIC) purchased 62,500 shares of CDIC from the open market. CDIC rose 12.80% since the InsiderCow.com report.

Trade amount: 62,500 shares

Trade type: Open Market Buy

Trade price range: $1.23 - $1.26

My Price target is a modest $2.10 in the short term for an expected gain of 35.5%.....

Ticker:  ISV -  INSITE VISION INC COM (AMEX)

I am going to play ISV again, because there is still potential in this stock.  The way I see it is this:  The stock is right near the 52-week high, it has a price target of $4.00 per share, which is 60% above it's current price.  With the bull trend this stock has in place, i would not be surprised to see this price be achieved within a month before a cool down.  I will look to sell ISV if the price pushes into the $3.60-$4.00 range for a 50%-60% gain.

My pick is totally speculative play in oil and gas CNR.
I like this company because it is in one of top 5 industries.Has assets mostly in Republic of GEORGIA, and Republic of Kazakhstan.Spends lot less money to extract oil so will have a lot more profit if the energy crisis continue volume 10 day average is 1029080 vs 3 month avg. 854 686.

CanArgo Energy Corporation: Georgian Operations Update
Monday April 3, 4:48 pm ET


TBILISI, GEORGIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Apr 3, 2006 -- CanArgo Energy Corporation ("CanArgo") (AMEX:CNR - News) (OSE:CNR) today gave an update on its Georgian operations.
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Testing is progressing on the Norio MK72 exploration well where a comprehensive testing program is being carried out on oil bearing Oligocene sandstones.

The Oligocene sands which are now to be tested in the MK72 well had good oil shows whilst drilling, with oil to surface and with hydrocarbons being interpreted on the electric logs which indicated some 100 metres (330 feet) of net pay sands with porosities in the range of 15 to 20%. A cement plug was set in the lower part of the hole, sealing off the oil discovery made at Middle Eocene level, and then some 98 metres (322 feet) of the sands were perforated over the interval 3,687 metres (12,096 feet) to 4,152 metres (13,622 feet) Measured Depth in several runs using high penetration through-tubing conveyed perforating guns.

The well is showing good formation pressure, with surface shut-in pressures of up to 168 atmospheres (2,468 psig) being recorded, and with oil and gas recovered to surface, together with quantities of drilling mud. The oil gravity is approximately 45 degrees API. Natural gas lift is being used to clean-up the well, which is slugging clean oil and heavy mud with barite. This section was drilled with heavy mud in 2003 and it is expected that there is a still some quantity of mud to be recovered from the formation before continual oil flow is achieved. Testing will continue, but in order to asses the commerciality of the flow rate it could take several weeks for the well to clean-up properly. CanArgo is encouraged by the rapid pressure build up observed at the well-head each time the well is shut in for a period of time and expects a more stabilised oil flow to be achieved in time.

The Ninotsminda Field horizontal well N97H has been tested for approximately three weeks and has tested a total fluid rate of up to 1,145 barrels per day. The maximum oil flow rate achieved to date has been 385 barrels per day. The well is currently being gas lifted but is producing fluid with a high water cut, and it is believed that the well has intersected a water bearing fracture from the N4H horizontal well, which is located to the southwest of the end of the N97H borehole. Interference testing between the two wells has established that they are in pressure communication, despite the relatively large separation, and indeed the testing of the N97H well resulted in an increase in oil production from the N4H well. CanArgo believes that it will be necessary to seal off this water producing fracture in the N97H well in order to re-establish oil production, and is considering using the coiled-tubing unit which is available in Georgia for this purpose once production logging tools have been run to establish the position of the water producing zone which is believed to be towards the end of the horizontal section furthest from the original well bore.

The Manavi M12 appraisal well is currently drilling ahead at 1,611 metres (5,285 feet) in the 171/2 inch hole section. It is still forecast that this well will reach the Cretaceous reservoir section in early summer, after which testing is planned. Further testing of the Manavi M11Z well using a Schlumberger coiled-tubing unit was planned for April, but lack of certainty on the availability of equipment, and the higher cost of mobilisation for a single job has lead CanArgo to postpone this test until the completion of the Manavi M12 well, at which point the equipment could be mobilised for both jobs if it was found that acid stimulation should be necessary in M12. Given the small hole size and other mechanical complications in the M11Z well, CanArgo has decided that it should focus on getting a good test on the M12 well, which should have a significantly larger hole size, rather than a sub-optimal test on M11Z. It is still planned to test the M11Z well, following completion of M12.

Vincent McDonnell, Chief Operating Officer of CanArgo said, "This is very much an interim update on our testing program on both the MK72 exploration well on Norio and the N97H development well on Ninotsminda, and final test results may not be available for a number of weeks. However, we are encouraged by the results of our testing program on the MK72 Oligocene sands to date with indications of good formation pressure and light oil being flowed to surface. The well is still in the process of cleaning up and this may take some time as a significant amount of drilling mud may have been lost to the formation whilst drilling and we are allowing the well to clean up naturally. The early indications from the N97 horizontal sidetrack well is that it has potential to be a good oil producer, however, before it can be put into stabilised production it will be necessary to isolate the water producing fracture which it has intersected. We are drilling ahead on the Manavi appraisal well and we have decided to focus on the completion of this well and the achievement of optimum testing conditions before returning to the M11Z well to complete the well testing program there. As is often the case with carbonate reservoirs, acid stimulation may be required in order to initiate flow from the M12 well, consequently it has been decided to delay the mobilisation of a suitable coil tubing unit to Georgia until M12 has reached its target depth. Should the unit be required for both wells this would prove to be a more cost efficient approach."

CanArgo is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with its oil and gas operations currently located in the Republic of Georgia and in Kazakhstan.

Alrighty folks... let's get to it.

My pick for the 5th Edition of this great contest?  The same as my pick for the 4th Edition of this great contest: NVTL

I'm almost in love with the dual movers of the wireless internet industry.  I own several hundred shares of SWIR and took profit on several of them on Friday (bought at 6.89, sold at 17.89  ;D).  NVTL is in the same industry and looking to make a run off of SWIR's success.  Great chart with a great supporting trend line below it after a big bounce off the bottom.  Solid volume to support the recent move and a bit of room to run before a gap to fill and the 200 dma.  Good positive up trend on the RSI and solid positive divergence on the MACD.  This baby needs to just keep rolling.

Here's the chart:

gold gold gold,
here is my pick CGR (amex)
Claude Resources, Inc. operates as a gold mining, and oil and gas company in Canada. The company, through its subsidiary, 3377474 Canada, Inc., engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metal properties primarily in northern Saskatchewan, northern Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario. It owns Seabee gold mine in Saskatchewan and Madsen gold mine in northwestern Ontario. The company also owns Currie Rose properties. Claude Resources, through its other subsidiary, 574095 Alberta, Ltd., involves in the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas principally in Alberta and southeastern Saskatchewan. As of December 31, 2004, it had net proved reserves of approximately 213.5 thousand barrels of oil and natural gas liquids and approximately 1,636 million cubic feet of gas. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

this has been on a strong up trend since march with increasing volume. 52 week high close by at 148, macd positve, rsi heading back to 70 . but my main reason for this pick was to find  a stock between $1 and 2 that was in a uptrend in the gold sector, also there are rumors of a take over by gg which can't hurt .
maxi
glta

HI All

My pick is  HYGS

Hydrogenics has been one of my holdings for a few years now.  I originally owned Stuart Energy which designed and manufactured hydrogen generation equipment.  I then heard from a physics professor friend that Hydrogenics was doing some very interesting high tech stuff with fuel cells and testing equipment for the fuel cell industry in general, I liked the company and bought some.  Shortly thereafter Hydrogenics bought out Stuart, so I now have more Hydrogenics and still technically like their business so am still holding, been a little bumpy though.  I really like the idea that they are broad based, fuel cells, testing equipment and hydrogen generation, lots of revenue streams covering all aspects of the fuel cell trade.

Hard to pick a stock for this one month contest which is primed to run starting on April 24th, (and above $1 and 100K ave vol).  But I like the sector right now with oil high and alternate energy in the spotlight maybe this one can take off.   Currently just above the 100 and 200MA with the 100 just crossing the 200.  Weekly chart shows more volume coming in but also shows some overhead resistance which we will have to plow thru.

Charts below

thanks
Quasi

ZP - Zapworld

www.zapworld.com (http://www.zapworld.com)

Reasoning: ZAP is the world leader in advanced transportation including electric cars, fuel cell cars, hybrid cars, electric bicycles, electric scooters, seascooters, etc.  So I hear gas prices are going through the roof and everyone wants to find alternative energy options.  Volume has really picked up this last month and it looks like it wants to break out.

(http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/5979/zp0bk.gif)

My pick is GIGM (GigaMedia Ltd.) which is a familiar stock to most on 3SOF. My reasons for picking GIGM are both fundamental and technical. Fundamentally GIGM looks good after they sold their music stores and concentrated on on-line gaming industry.GigaMedia Limited provides on-line entertainment software and services. Through its subsidiary, Cambridge Entertainment Software, the company develops software for on-line entertainment services, including on-line gaming and social networking. It also offers FunTown game portal, an Asian casual game portal that provides an on-line MahJong game site. In addition, the company operates a broadband ISP through its subsidiary, Hoshin GigaMedia, which provides Internet access services to consumers and corporate subscribers in Taiwan.The major potential for GIGM is the huge potential of MahJong "for money". MahJong is very popular in the far east and the market is huge. In the meantime GIGM reported record earnings for 2005 Q4.

Technicaly, as the chart below shows the stock has been on a steady climb for the past 6 months and it seems that the stock is under serious and methodical accumulation.

I believe that there is a good chance that there would be a break out in the stock in the coming weeks and/or beyond.

selection: ARTG

Reasons: chart shows fantastic breakout and momentum up since (after 1.00-ish). There have been a lot of innexpensive plays that have won this competition because this smaller stocks have a lot more room to grow and be moved and often will in a shorter time than the big boys will. She's had relatively positive headlines as of late. Insider transactions have had a healthy mix of exercise of options, some selling and some buying (although to be sure the selling HAS beaten puchases). And this one isn't spoken of so often -- but they have a nice website. It's nice to see a smaller company that is well rounded - a lot of them have lousy websites. If they aren't going to take it all seriously then you shouldn't them... http://www.atg.com/. Many of the big holders I have a lot of respect for (the funds, that is). All chart shhtuff looks good and momentum with volume conf also nice.

Charts:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ARTG&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=m100,m50,v&a=&c=

(very nice)

A turnaround story that everyone would love! QLT is a biopharmaceutical company, headquartered in Vancouver, BC. Ticker: QLTI

Profile:
QLT, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies primarily in the fields of ophthalmology and dermatology. Its approved product portfolio includes Visudyne, a photosensitizer, for the treatment of choroidal neovascularization; Eligard line of products for prostate cancer; Aczone, a dermatology product, for the treatment of acne vulgaris; lidocaine/prilocaine cream for topical anesthetic; mometasone furoate ointment for topical corticosteroid; erythromycin and benzoyl peroxide topical gel for antiacne; betamethasone dipropionate cream and fluticasone propionate cream for corticosteroid; and Ketoconazole shampoo for dandruff. The company's products under development include Eligard 3.75 milligram one-month product for the treatment of prostate cancer; Lemuteporfin for benign prostatic hyperplasia, which is in phase 2 clinical trials; Aczone, for the treatment of Rosacea and is in phase 2 study; Octreotide Atrigel, which is in phase 2 clinical study for the treatment of the symptoms of acromegaly; and GHRP-1-Atrigel, a formulation of growth hormone releasing peptide-1, for the treatment of malnutrition in end stage renal disease patients. The company has alliances with Han All Pharmaceutical, Co.; Key Oncologics; Luxembourg Pharmaceuticals, Ltd.; Mayne Pharma Pty, Ltd.; MediGene AG; Ranbaxy Laboratories, Ltd.; Sanofi-Synthelabo, Inc.; Sosei Co., Ltd; Tecnofarma International, Ltd.; Sandoz, Inc.; Pfizer, Inc.; Retinagenix, LLC; and Bio Delivery Science International. QLT was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Revenues:
2005 was a pruning year for QLTI. Had revenues of $240M. Forecast for 2006, is about $400M for their lead product Visudyne and the forecasst for Eligard is unknow at this point as they have had legal issues marketing that product, mainly patent related. However, the good news is that the legal terms have been settled and starting 1 May QLTI will be eligible to start marketing Eligard again, but the plans are not well defined!!!

PRofits:
2005 was a loss year as they had one write down of about $400M but were cash flow positive. 2006 is expected to be a profitable year. Earnings on 27 April 2006.

Other Highlights:
>> Sitting on a cash horde of approx $460M
>> Has debt of about $170M. Debt is convertible at $17    per share.
>> Have a lot of alliances with other Pharmas
>> QLTI is a global BioPharmaceutical company
>> About 92M O/S

TA
Both 50 and 200 day SMA are on an increasing trend. The golden crossover is nearing!
Slow Stock looks bullish as K line is top of on D line
ROC looks bullish as it is in increasing trend direction and finally
MACD is positive and looks bullish.

Action: Buy on the Open!

My Pick: HEB (Hemispherix Biopharma)

Fundamentals: I was actually thinking of CBMX, but somebody already picked it. I believe the bird flu sector in general is due for a rise after the deep pullback over the last several weeks...as simple as that...and the charts look good with price at good support levels roght now (20 and 50 MA's)

Technical Analysis:  Here's a chart....I see this runnning back up to 52 week highs of $4.15 pretty soon (within the month).

sitting pretty at support levels right now...stochastics shows time for a rise back up, the MACD is tredning from negative to poistive territory...good signs IMO.

My pick is Centillium Communications - CTLM It has been rising like a rocket recently and appears to be the only pure semi-play for the Telecom triple play buildout. Its product portfolio includes silicon integrated circuits and associated software that are used in communications equipment for various broadband markets, including digital subscriber line (DSL) and Voice over Packet (VoP) applications. Expect that CTLM reports a profitable quarter on Wed Apr 26th. They are in three fields - VOIP, Fiber to premise, ADSL2/VDSL2. They have clean balance sheet with 60 mill in cash plus $10 mill coming from shares offered recently at 3.40. They have no debt, deals with many, manage inventory efficiently and have reduced op expenses to about 12 mill per quarter. The potential to see $ 20 is here as mkt cap is only 206 mill. Applying forward PE of 60  CTLM would only have to earn 36 cents per share in a year to hit $20. That means $15 profit or $3.6 mill per quarter. With 55% margins revenue must only increase by $7 mill per quarter to make it. Look promising. Technically expect to hit $7 by contest end from current price of $5.11.

Here is the chart:

My pick: Microsoft (MSFT)

I realize that this stock has not done much over the last 5 years, but it is getting ready to make its move to the upside. Here are my reasons:

1) Conference call on Wednesday. This is typically the time of the year they give guidance for the upcoming year.

2) MSFT just released Vista interim build 5365 and Vista beta 2 is scheduled to be released next month. So far the signs are still good for a Jan '07 launch for Vista.

3) Should be announcing HD-DVD drive for the X-box. Wistron, one of the three manufacturers of the X-box plans to ramp up manufacturing to 1 million consoles per months starting in June.

4) Windows live @edu program has signed 72 colleges and universities.

5) Coming out with Live drive which will provide users with a virtual hard drive.

6) The long awaited EU trial starts on Monday.

7) Ask.com CEO is the new head of MSN.

8 ) Company plans to accelerate its stock buy back program during the second half of this year. Last count they had $10 billion on hand allocated to share buy backs.

9) Treo 700 W gets new push e-mail which is starting to enter Blackberry's territory.

10) Scheduled to release in June their new program to compete with Google's adsense.

My Pick: Input/Output Inc. (Ticker: IO)

Profile:
Input/Output, Inc. and its subsidiaries offer seismic products and services to the oil and natural gas industry worldwide. It provides seismic data acquisition equipment, survey design planning services, software products, and seismic data processing services. The company operates in four segments: Land Imaging Systems, Marine Imaging Systems, Data Management Solutions, and Seismic Imaging Solutions.
Website: http://www.i-o.com

Reasons to Buy:

IO had a powerful breakout in March, followed by a breakaway gap, some consolidation and new breakout last Friday suggesting continuation. Volume was always present and above average.
$11.22 is an important level for IO, it's the last relative high and I expect this to be broken during this contest, opening a door to a higher move.
IO Fundamentals seems to be improving, when looking to Earnings and Revenues Trend (see last 2 charts in attach).

Charts:

And with the 54th pick in the 3SoF Contest 5th Edition Draft, Lucas Scott selects..

TGC out of the University of Tennessee

Does that ticker give you deja vu? It should because Fous and Healey have selected it too. Can I just link to their DD?

Fous' DD
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5294.msg58082#msg58082
Healey's DD
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5294.msg58472#msg58472

And my .02 on it.... The mining and metals stocks seemed to have the best charts, so I was looking to pick from that sector. I narrowed it down by eliminating stocks that had run a lot in recent days/weeks and are due for a 3-week consolidation. Then I did a rough fundamental comparison of the remaining candidates by comparing their EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) at Yahoo Finance. One stock stood above the rest and that was TGC. 

The chart shows a pretty triangle, a breakout at $.95, a retest of the breakout two weeks later, and strong volume over the past 4 weeks. A veritable 4-tool player. It can hit, run, catch and throw. But can it hit for power? This contest may resolve that question. If it hits $2, the answer is yes and we send him to the bigs.

Fous and Healey have the tiebreaker advantage, so I'll just have to time my sell better. Maybe we'll end up finishing 1-2-3. That would be cool. The top 3 spots all get cash. GO TGC!!

My Pick: HOUSEVALUES, INC. (NasdaqNM:SOLD)

Profile:
HouseValues, Inc. provides real estate marketing services through Internet in the United States. It operates a network of real estate and mortgage Web sites that provide consumers and real estate professionals with free access to the information and services throughout the home buying and selling process. The company provides an integrated service offering for residential real estate agents, which include online lead generation, online prospect management, online real estate portal content and advertising, and agent coaching and training. Its products include HomePages.com, a lifestyle and neighborhood-centric home buying and selling service; TheLoanPage.com, a service that provides current and prospective home owners with mortgage and refinance quotes from lenders; HouseValues.com, a service that provides home sellers with market valuations of their current home; and JustListed.com, a service that alerts home buyers as soon as new homes hit the market that meet their criteria. As of December 31, 2005, the company served approximately 16,000 customers. HouseValues was founded by Mark Powell in 1999 and is headquartered in Kirkland, Washington.

Reasons to Buy:
The drop causes by the downgrade on earning, but on friday the company raised the guidance back. So, I think it should get back where it was. The target is around 12-14.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060420/0124202.html

Charts: Chartwise, there is a gap to be filled.
(http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=sold&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=3&maval=50%2B200&uf=8&lf=1&lf2=2&lf3=4&type=4&size=3&state=15&sid=1817826&style=330&time=7&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=4196&mocktick=1&rand=5684)

My Pick: MPET

Another company in Oil sector, no debt, 25 million shares and improved earnings.

  1. Technically, it has built a 5-month base since last November with higher lows.
     and turned bullish from April 11 with big volumes. It made another
     push April 18 and break $2.5 resistance.

  2. Fundamentally it is in the process of acquiring all the shares of Magellan Petroleum Australia Limited. The deal was approved last year but met some objection earlier last month thinking it sold to MPET too cheap. I believe MPET got a bargin.

If the acquire is successful, the stock will fly (final day extends to May 12).

Lejun Shao (James)

Chart: higher lows

FORD Forward Industries Inc

FORD saw some great stock price action last year and was somwhat of a momo traders dream. They had a great sales year in 2005, but of late have started to stall some (both in terms of sales and stock price due to price pressure and product mix). Last Qtr results were guided lower and were a lot weaker than previous years equivalent qtr. Fundamentally the Company is healthy, with $18M cash. With 8M shares out price moves on any news can be dramatic (in either direction really). Looking at weewklly chart I am expecting a continued bounce from $8 zone lows and hopefully positive reaction for any upside news or guidance in current qtr results (no idea if they have any decent upside news, they guided lower previous qtr, so will see).

NENG (NETWORK ENGINES)

Profile:  Network Engines, Inc. engages in the development and manufacture of server appliance solutions that deliver data storage and network security applications on server appliances. It provides server appliance solutions and services for the data storage and network security markets.

NENG has been on a bull run since the beginning of 2006.  It has a steady and beautiful chart and has recently retraced from it's high of 3.25 in March.  Volume has been rather low lately, but the stock has maintained above it's 50 sma.  Though the company is losing money, it has generated several new strategic partnerships and distributors of its server products in recent months.  Earnings is Thursday Apr 27, so that will probably provide direction for the stock in the month to come.

DOC - Digital Angel

Deciding to bump the trend of low-cap energy stocks and go with a pick from left field.

DOC is likely to attain profitability during the next quarter, management has been trying to clear the balance sheet by writing down what they can quarter after quarter.  Revenues and cash flow keep increasing and based on the last quarters conference call, I believe growth is really about to explode. The stock has a strong technical setup (I've recommended this to family and friends since the bullish pennant in the the low $3s).  Market cap is a little high at $190MM, but the low stock price will make this attractive to traders.

DOC is likely to be the primary beneficiary for any compulsary implementation of a National Animal Identification System, like the one currently being proposed by the USDA.  American beef quality, from what I understand, is a farily major topic in the agricultural industry, but still unbeknownst to the general public, and the investing public for that matter.

My pick is Boston Communications Group Inc.  BCGI.

BCGI has started an uptrend in recent months and I hope to ride that trend at least until it closes a gap left at $4.81.  They are posting a loss, but it's mainly because of  higher engineering, research & development expenses, higher sales & marketing expenses, higher legal expenses and inclusion of $64.3M estimated loss from litigation.

Now that things are turning around, I want to be part of that ride.  Also, I own a radio station and I like the fact that they're in communications :)

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